Datasets:

ldowey
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swe_mon_benchmark

+Text,Labels
+The low interest rates in 2009 have contributed to a rise in house and apartment prices since last spring.,positive
+"According to Statistics Sweden’s figures for house prices, prices of single-family dwellings rose on average by 3 per cent between the second and third quarters.",positive
+Estate agents’ statistics (“Mäklarstatistik”) confirm the picture of rising house prices and also indicate that the average price of tenant-owned apartments has risen by 4 per cent in the same period.,positive
+"According to Statistics Sweden’s purchase price coefficient, prices slowed somewhat in September compared with August.",negative
+This is probably due to some time lag in the statistics in Statistics Sweden's figures for house prices in relation to estate agents' statistics.,neutral
+"Estate agents’ statistics point to an increase in activity on the housing market, which is visible in a decline in the number of days a home is on the market.",positive
+Stock markets have continued to rise since the Monetary Policy Update at the beginning of September.,positive
+The Stockholm stock exchange has so far risen slightly over 40 per cent since the start of the year,positive
+"Bank shares have risen more than the Stockholm stock market's main index for much of the year, following the large falls in autumn 2008 and the subsequent winter.",positive
+"Low interest rates, greater confidence in the financial system and a belief that the recession will soon be over have been driving forces here.",positive
+"These factors have together contributed to better possibilities for companies to fund their operations, which has led to a higher valuation for many listed companies.",positive
+"However, analysts’ expectations of profits for the coming year and next year remain at roughly the same level as prior to the summer.",neutral
+This means that the valuation of the Stockholm stock market in terms of the P/E ratio is now in line with a longer historical average.,neutral
+"Following the Riksbank’s two fixed-interest rate loans, the so-called monetary base has increased further.",positive
+"At the same time, the rate of increase in the M2 money supply measure has fallen, but is at approximately the same level as prior to the crisis.",neutral
+"However, the rate of increase in the broadest money supply measure, M3, was negative for the second month in a row in August.",negative
+"This is primarily explained by
+households and companies having sold money market instruments with
+short maturities to buy other assets, such as equity.",neutral
+The fact that the monetary base has risen substantially without other measures of the money supply increasing reflects an increase in the banks' need for liquid assets.,neutral
+"During last autumn and winter the Swedish krona weakened substantially, at the same time as the foreign exchange market was highly volatile.",negative
+"The fluctuations could be explained by a flight from smaller to larger currencies, which are considered more secure and liquid, as a result of the deeper financial crisis, the weak stock markets and the global economic downturn in autumn 2008.",neutral
+During the spring and summer the krona has strengthened at a rapid rate.,positive
+"As the situation in the financial markets improves, the will to invest in markets perceived as higher risk will improve, which will probably benefit the krona.",positive
+"The Riksbank’s forecast for the trade-weighted krona exchange rate, the TCW index, remains largely unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2009.",neutral
+The USD/SEK rate has returned to the levels prevailing one year ago.,neutral
+"However, the krona is still relatively weak against the euro, seen in an historical perspective",negative
+GDP in Sweden rose during the second quarter of this year by 0.6 per cent when calculated as an annual rate.,positive
+The financial market turmoil has persisted since the Monetary Policy Report was published in February.,negative
+"The TED spread, the difference between the interbank rate and the treasury bill rate, has increased in the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Sweden since the February Monetary Policy Report.",negative
+For Sweden the continuing financial turmoil has meant that the interest rates at which Swedish households and companies mainly borrow have risen more than the 0.25 percentage points the repo rate was raised by in February.,negative
+Stock markets have continued to be volatile since the Monetary Policy Report was published.,negative
+Forward prices indicate continuing low prices over the coming months.,negative
+"However, the forward pricing indicates roughly the same price level towards the end of the current year and onwards as in the previous forecast.",neutral
+Food prices are continuing to rise rapidly.,negative
+"According to The Economist’s commodity-price index for food in the world market, the price increase was more than 40 per cent in March, expressed as an annual percentage change and translated into Swedish krona.",negative
+In January the corresponding rate of increase was 23 per cent.,neutral
+"Statistics Sweden’s property price index for the fourth quarter of 2007 shows that the annual rate of price increase for single-family dwellings was around 11 per cent, which is unchanged compared with the previous quarter",neutral
+"In Sweden GDP growth was 2.8 per cent (seasonally-adjusted) during the fourth quarter of last year, compared with the corresponding quarter in the previous year.",positive
+This was slightly stronger than predicted in February.,positive
+Household consumption expenditure and fixed gross investment continued to show strong growth.,positive
+"According to estate agents’ statistics prices of tenantowned apartments have fallen during the whole of the autumn in all of the major cities and in Sweden as a whole, but in recent months prices have stabilised.",negative
+"In February employment rose by 95,000 persons or 2.1 per cent compared with February last year, and the percentage of persons unemployed, according to the EU definition, was 6.1 per cent (not seasonally-adjusted).",positive
+"Statistics up to the end of March show that the number of newly-registered vacancies has fallen significantly in recent months, but it remains high.",negative
+Last year labour productivity throughout the economy fell by 0.7 per cent.,negative
+"The assessment in February was that productivity growth would show an upward swing during the final quarter of 2007 but instead it fell, which was mainly due to the surprisingly strong increase in the number of hours worked.",negative
+"The number of persons employed has continued to increase, but at a slower rate than last year.",positive
+The numbers of newly-registered vacancies and redundancies also indicate a gradual slowdown in demand for labour in the coming period.,negative
+The slowdown in the economy means that employment growth is now expected to be lower than was forecast earlier,neutral
+"As in other countries, the high inflation rate is primarily linked to higher energy and monetary policy update april 2008 food prices.",neutral
+Increased cost pressures and rising interest costs have also contributed to the upturn.,negative
+Rising interest costs for home-owners mean that CPI inflation will exceed 3 per cent on average during 2008.,negative
+"Given the Riksbank’s interest rate path in this update, the forecast is that CPI inflation will exceed CPIX inflation towards the end of the forecast period as a result of households’ interest expenditure continuing to rise more quickly than prices of other goods and services.",negative
+The latter is primarily a lingering effect of property prices rising substantially over a long period of time.,neutral
+Infl ation is expected to be high and exceed the target over the coming year.,negative
+This is largely linked to temporary effects of rising energy and food prices.,negative
+"More central to monetary policy is that underlying inflationary pressures and infl ation expectations have also risen which can pose a threat to the infl ation target in the slightly longer term, too.",negative
+Good growth has led to production resources being more strained than normal and production costs rising at a rapid pace.,negative
+Productivity growth is weak and hourly wages are rising at a higher rate than in recent years.,negative
+GDP growth has been high in recent years.,positive
+A slight slowdown occurred in 2007 and growth will be subdued further during the forecast period both in Sweden and abroad.,negative
+"However, in the main scenario forecast by the Riksbank, the slowdown in economic activity will not be great.",positive
+GDP growth has declined significantly since 2006.,negative
+During 2007 export growth was considerably weaker than in the previous year at the same time as imports increased at a more rapid rate.,negative
+The credit crunch that followed in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets and weaker international economic development contribute to subduing growth further during the forecast period.,negative
+"In 2007, GDP growth was an estimated 2.8 per cent.",neutral
+This year the growth rate is expected to decline to 2.1 per cent.,negative
+"Household consumption will, however, be somewhat weaker this year than last.",negative
+Growth in household consumption is subdued at the beginning of the year as increasing uncertainty about the development of the economy and falling share prices is expected to lead to an increase in precautionary saving.,negative
+"Employment increased strongly in 2006 and 2007, calculated in terms of both hours worked and the number of persons.",positive
+The number of employed is expected to increase only marginally during the forecast period.,neutral
+This is partly due to a slowdown in the economic upswing and partly to the higher wage increases contributing to lower demand for labour.,negative
+"Since the number of persons employed increased faster than the number of persons in the labour fore in 2006 and 2007, the number of unemployed decreased substantially.",positive
+In 2007 labour costs per unit produced are expected to have risen by 4.2 per cent.,negative
+The sharp rise is mainly explained by the weak growth in productivity.,negative
+At the beginning of the forecast period production costs are expected to increase considerably as a result of continued weak growth in productivity and the higher rate of increase in hourly wages.,negative
+The economy is expected to gradually enter a calmer phase at the same time as the effects of the recent rise in energy and food prices will decline.,neutral
+"According to the Riksbank’s main scenario, this means that CPIX infl ation will decrease and stabilise around 2 per cent.",positive
+"The upturn in global trade, as well as  confidence among households and companies, has softened  slightly from high levels but this development is deemed partly to  be an effect of temporary factors and not a sign of clear  deterioration in economic activity.",positive
+The economic situation in Sweden is strong and growth has  been high for several years.,positive
+Very low interest rates and good development in Swedish export markets have  contributed.,positive
+Developments on the labour market have been very strong  for several years.,positive
+Labour supply has increased rapidly as a result  of both high growth in the population and an upturn in the  labour force participation rate.,positive
+The employment rate has been  rising and unemployment has been falling for almost five years.,positive
+"Resource utilisation on the labour market, and in the economy  as a whole, is expected to rise further this year and continue to  be higher than normal in the years ahead.",positive
+"A high level of  resource utilisation on the labour market has contributed to  wage growth beginning to rise, and this is expected to continue in  the period ahead.",positive
+"Overall, it is the Riksbank’s assessment that inflation will be close  to 2 per cent in the next few years.",positive
+"Since 2014, inflation has risen and over the past  year, it has been close to the target.",positive
+Both short‐ and long‐term  inflation expectations have also risen and they are also close to 2  per cent.,positive
+Monetary policy has helped strengthen  economic activity and reduce unemployment.,positive
+How the krona develops has bearing on inflation.,neutral
+The  exchange rate is expected to strengthen gradually in the coming years but the forecast is associated with uncertainty.,positive
+The Swedish economy continues to develop strongly with a level  of resource utilisation that is higher than normal and a CPIF  inflation rate that has been close to 2 per cent for some time.,positive
+"Since April, market expectations of the future policy  rate have fallen, even if they shifted up slightly after the meeting  in June.",negative
+"Macroeconomic statistics, which have been slightly  weaker than expected, have probably contributed to this  development.",negative
+The expected volatility of equity and bonds has followed  roughly the same pattern and has on average been higher than  levels in the second half of 2017.,negative
+Market participants’ expectations of the repo rate according to surveys have remained relatively unchanged in  recent months and are largely in line with the repo rate path.,neutral
+"Since they were initiated in the spring of 2015, the Riksbank’s bond purchases have helped push down both government bond  yields and other market rates.",positive
+The purchases have thus  contributed towards the expansiveness of monetary policy.,neutral
+Interest in participating in the Riksbank’s auctions has been good  overall.,neutral
+Both the number of  persons in the labour force and the number of persons employed  continued to increase in April and May and unemployment has  remained largely unchanged compared with the first quarter.,positive
+The formulation of monetary policy depends on a number of factors and considerations.,neutral
+"This time, the monetary policy discussion has primarily focused on whether purchases of securities should expire at the end of June 2016 or whether they should continue.",neutral
+"In a scenario in which the economies of Sweden’s neighbours are growing significantly more slowly than expected, demand for Swedish exports may be dampened considerably, and confidence among Swedish companies and households may deteriorate.",negative
+In June this year the second phase of social security contribution increases for people under the age of 26 will be implemented.,neutral
+"Moreover, a special wage tax was introduced in January for people over the age of 65.",neutral
+Economic activity in Sweden continues to improve in line with the forecast in December.,positive
+"Weak developments abroad are slowing down growth, but are counteracted somewhat by the fall in the oil price and a weaker krona.",neutral
+"Following a slowdown at the end of last year, the labour market is expected to strengthen.",positive
+"In order to support the upturn in underlying inflation so that CPIF inflation approaches 2 per cent and to ensure that long-term inflation expectations are compatible with the inflation target, a more expansionary monetary policy is needed.",dovish
+The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.1 percentage points to −0.10 and to restore the interest rates for fine-tuning transactions to the repo rate +/− 0.1 percentage points.,dovish
+"In addition, the repo-rate path has been adjusted downwards somewhat.",dovish
+The Executive Board has also decided to purchase government bonds to an amount of SEK 10 billion.,dovish
+"If this proves insufficient to get inflation to rise towards the target, the Riksbank can quickly make monetary policy even more expansionary.",dovish
+The measures taken and the readiness to do more underline the Riksbank's aim to safeguard the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation.,neutral
+CHAPTER 3 – The current economic situation,neutral
+"The Riksbank's monetary policy decisions in February and March have comprised repo-rate cuts, government bond purchases and the communication that further monetary policy measures will be taken if necessary.",dovish
+This has led to relatively strong reactions on the interest-rate and foreign exchange markets.,neutral
+CHAPTER 2 – Financial conditions,neutral
+Uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecast,neutral
+Tighter monetary policy for low and stable inflation,hawkish
+Swedish inflation is very high.,negative
+CPIF inflation rose to just over 10 per cent in December.,negative
+"Even disregarding the rapidly increasing energy prices, inflation was high and still rising.",negative
+Other underlying measures of inflation have also continued to rise.,negative
+It is important for confidence in the inflation target that inflation falls back clearly this year and there are many indications that it will do so.,positive
+"However, it is uncertain whether inflation will fall sufficiently quickly and far enough, not least given the fact that underlying inflation is still rising.",negative
+"Moreover, if the krona continues to be weak, it will be considerably more difficult for the Riksbank to return inflation to the target more permanently.",neutral
+"To bring down inflation and safeguard the inflation target, the Executive Board assesses that monetary policy needs to be tightened further.",hawkish
+The Executive Board has therefore decided to raise the Riksbank’s policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.0 per cent.,hawkish
+The forecast for the policy rate indicates that it will probably be raised further during the spring.,hawkish
+"As complementary measures to the higher policy rate, the Executive Board has also decided to reduce the Riksbank's asset holdings at a more rapid pace, by selling government bonds and offering larger volumes of Riksbank Certificates in the weekly monetary policy operations.",hawkish
+"Tightening monetary policy more now reduces the risk of even more serious problems with inflation and greater monetary policy tightening further ahead, which would have comprehensive negative consequences for the Swedish economy.",neutral
+Tighter monetary policy to bring inflation to 2 per cent,hawkish
+The very rapid upturn in inflation last year has meant that CPIF inflation is now just over 10 per cent and thus far above the inflation target.,negative
+"The Riksbank underestimated the inflationary impulse in the wake of the pandemic and factors that were difficult to predict, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing disruptions on the European energy markets, aggravated the situation further.",neutral
+"To bring down the high inflation, the Riksbank has raised its policy rate at every meeting since April 2022, in total from zero per cent to 2.5 per cent at the end of 2022.",hawkish
+The increase has been rapid in relation to earlier phases of interest rate hikes and we are already seeing the effects on demand in the Swedish economy.,neutral
+"As it takes time before monetary policy affects inflation, the effects will only become clear this year.",neutral
+Monetary policy needs to be tightened further,hawkish
+"A high rate of inflation creates problems in the economy and given the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, the Executive Board assesses that monetary policy needs to be tightened further.",hawkish
+It is important that inflation shows a clear downturn this year and that it is not merely due to lower energy prices.,neutral
+There are many indications that this will happen.,negative
+But it is uncertain whether inflation will fall sufficiently quickly and far enough.,negative
+"There is a risk that the recent rapid price rises will develop into a changed pricing behaviour and that inflation will then, even if it slows down somewhat, become entrenched at a level that is too high.",negative
+"The measures that the Riksbank is now taking in the form of a repo-rate cut, restored interest rates for fine-tuning transactions and the purchase of government bonds underlines the Riksbank's determination to safeguard the role of the inflation target as a nominal anchor for price setting and wage formation.",dovish
+"In order to ensure that inflation rises towards the target, the Riksbank is prepared, should the need arise, to quickly make monetary policy more expansionary, even between the ordinary monetary policy meetings.",dovish
+"This will primarily entail making further repo-rate cuts, postponing the first repo-rate increase and increasing the purchases of government bonds.",dovish
+"A programme for lending to companies through the banks may also be considered (see the article ""The Riksbank’s complementary monetary policy measures"").",dovish