lfqian commited on
Commit
1b8087a
·
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1 Parent(s): 3625475

Restore quarterly recurrent cadence: 5,443 -> 10,014 q, even ~280-312 recurrent/year + black swans

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README.md CHANGED
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ tags:
12
  - recall-vs-reasoning
13
  - time-series
14
  size_categories:
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- - 1K<n<10K
16
  configs:
17
  - config_name: default
18
  data_files:
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ configs:
80
 
81
  # pre_test — Historical Financial Forecasting MCQ
82
 
83
- A 5,443-question multiple-choice benchmark built from **50 US macro / market indicators**
84
  (FRED, 1999–2026). Every correct answer is a **real historical value** independently
85
  re-derivable from raw FRED data — not model-generated.
86
 
@@ -93,12 +93,14 @@ of the same shock event.
93
 
94
  | `condition` | count | what it tests |
95
  |---|---|---|
96
- | `forecast` | 3,297 | periodic numeric forecast of an indicator (recurrent) |
97
  | `blind` | 1,073 | aftermath of a market shock, **event name hidden** — clean recall probe |
98
  | `revealed` | 1,073 | the same question, **event name given** — situational reasoning |
99
 
100
  `blind` and `revealed` rows are paired 1:1 via `pair_id` (same options, same answer).
101
- Answer letters are balanced: A/B/C/D ≈ 25% each.
 
 
102
 
103
  ## Fields
104
 
 
12
  - recall-vs-reasoning
13
  - time-series
14
  size_categories:
15
+ - 10K<n<100K
16
  configs:
17
  - config_name: default
18
  data_files:
 
80
 
81
  # pre_test — Historical Financial Forecasting MCQ
82
 
83
+ A 10,014-question multiple-choice benchmark built from **49 US macro / market indicators**
84
  (FRED, 1999–2026). Every correct answer is a **real historical value** independently
85
  re-derivable from raw FRED data — not model-generated.
86
 
 
93
 
94
  | `condition` | count | what it tests |
95
  |---|---|---|
96
+ | `forecast` | 7,868 | periodic numeric forecast of an indicator (recurrent, quarterly cadence) |
97
  | `blind` | 1,073 | aftermath of a market shock, **event name hidden** — clean recall probe |
98
  | `revealed` | 1,073 | the same question, **event name given** — situational reasoning |
99
 
100
  `blind` and `revealed` rows are paired 1:1 via `pair_id` (same options, same answer).
101
+ Answer letters are balanced: A/B/C/D ≈ 25% each. The recurrent base is ~280–312 questions
102
+ per year (1999 and 2026 are lighter — fewer indicators existed in 1999; 2026 is partial),
103
+ so the accuracy-vs-year curve is well-populated in every year.
104
 
105
  ## Fields
106
 
mcq_1999.json CHANGED
@@ -1,884 +1,2438 @@
1
  [
2
  {
3
- "qid": "REC-T10Y2Y-level-19990615",
4
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
5
  "subtype": "recurrent",
6
  "indicator": "T10Y2Y",
7
  "transform": "level",
8
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
9
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
10
- "question": "What will the US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) +0.32pp\nB) +0.39pp\nC) +0.47pp\nD) +0.25pp",
11
  "options": [
12
- "A) +0.32pp",
13
- "B) +0.39pp",
14
- "C) +0.47pp",
15
- "D) +0.25pp"
16
  ],
17
  "answer_letter": "A",
18
- "answer_raw": "+0.32pp",
19
  "unit": "pp",
20
  "condition": "forecast",
21
  "year": 1999
22
  },
23
  {
24
- "qid": "REC-HOUST-level-19990901",
25
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
26
  "subtype": "recurrent",
27
- "indicator": "HOUST",
28
  "transform": "level",
29
- "target_period": "September 1999",
30
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
31
- "question": "What will the US Housing Starts (Thousands of units) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 1,738K\nB) 1,635K\nC) 1,566K\nD) 1,601K",
32
  "options": [
33
- "A) 1,738K",
34
- "B) 1,635K",
35
- "C) 1,566K",
36
- "D) 1,601K"
37
  ],
38
  "answer_letter": "B",
39
- "answer_raw": "1,635K",
40
- "unit": "thousand_units",
41
  "condition": "forecast",
42
  "year": 1999
43
  },
44
  {
45
- "qid": "REC-DGS30-level-19990615",
46
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
47
  "subtype": "recurrent",
48
- "indicator": "DGS30",
49
  "transform": "level",
50
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
51
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
52
- "question": "What will the US 30-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 6.47%\nB) 5.50%\nC) 6.11%\nD) 5.75%",
53
  "options": [
54
- "A) 6.47%",
55
- "B) 5.50%",
56
- "C) 6.11%",
57
- "D) 5.75%"
58
  ],
59
  "answer_letter": "C",
60
- "answer_raw": "6.11%",
61
- "unit": "%",
62
  "condition": "forecast",
63
  "year": 1999
64
  },
65
  {
66
- "qid": "REC-DGS5-level-19990615",
67
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
68
  "subtype": "recurrent",
69
- "indicator": "DGS5",
70
  "transform": "level",
71
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
72
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
73
- "question": "What will the US 5-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 5.39%\nB) 6.35%\nC) 5.55%\nD) 5.87%",
74
  "options": [
75
- "A) 5.39%",
76
- "B) 6.35%",
77
- "C) 5.55%",
78
- "D) 5.87%"
79
  ],
80
  "answer_letter": "D",
81
- "answer_raw": "5.87%",
82
  "unit": "%",
83
  "condition": "forecast",
84
  "year": 1999
85
  },
86
  {
87
- "qid": "REC-PCEPILFE-level-19990901",
88
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
89
  "subtype": "recurrent",
90
- "indicator": "PCEPILFE",
91
  "transform": "level",
92
- "target_period": "September 1999",
93
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
94
- "question": "What will the US Core PCE Price Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 73.84\nB) 76.05\nC) 77.53\nD) 71.62",
95
  "options": [
96
- "A) 73.84",
97
- "B) 76.05",
98
- "C) 77.53",
99
- "D) 71.62"
100
  ],
101
  "answer_letter": "A",
102
- "answer_raw": "73.84",
103
- "unit": "index",
104
  "condition": "forecast",
105
  "year": 1999
106
  },
107
  {
108
- "qid": "REC-BOPGSTB-level-19990901",
109
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
110
  "subtype": "recurrent",
111
- "indicator": "BOPGSTB",
112
  "transform": "level",
113
- "target_period": "September 1999",
114
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
115
- "question": "What will the US Trade Balance (Millions USD, negative=deficit) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $-25,462M\nB) $-22,699M\nC) $-18,555M\nD) $-26,843M",
116
  "options": [
117
- "A) $-25,462M",
118
- "B) $-22,699M",
119
- "C) $-18,555M",
120
- "D) $-26,843M"
121
  ],
122
  "answer_letter": "B",
123
- "answer_raw": "$-22,699M",
124
- "unit": "usd_million",
125
  "condition": "forecast",
126
  "year": 1999
127
  },
128
  {
129
- "qid": "REC-DSPI-level-19990901",
130
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
131
  "subtype": "recurrent",
132
- "indicator": "DSPI",
133
  "transform": "level",
134
- "target_period": "September 1999",
135
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
136
- "question": "What will the US Disposable Personal Income (Billions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $7,395B\nB) $7,119B\nC) $6,912B\nD) $6,704B",
137
  "options": [
138
- "A) $7,395B",
139
- "B) $7,119B",
140
- "C) $6,912B",
141
- "D) $6,704B"
142
  ],
143
  "answer_letter": "C",
144
- "answer_raw": "$6,912B",
145
- "unit": "usd_billion",
146
  "condition": "forecast",
147
  "year": 1999
148
  },
149
  {
150
- "qid": "REC-ICSA-level-19990615",
151
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
152
  "subtype": "recurrent",
153
- "indicator": "ICSA",
154
  "transform": "level",
155
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
156
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-06",
157
- "question": "What will the US Initial Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-06.)\n\nA) 296,936\nB) 310,808\nC) 269,192\nD) 290,000",
158
  "options": [
159
- "A) 296,936",
160
- "B) 310,808",
161
- "C) 269,192",
162
- "D) 290,000"
163
  ],
164
  "answer_letter": "D",
165
- "answer_raw": "290,000",
166
- "unit": "count",
167
  "condition": "forecast",
168
  "year": 1999
169
  },
170
  {
171
- "qid": "REC-TOTBKCR-level-19990615",
172
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
173
  "subtype": "recurrent",
174
- "indicator": "TOTBKCR",
175
  "transform": "level",
176
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
177
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-06",
178
- "question": "What will the US Total Bank Credit (Billions USD) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-06.)\n\nA) $4,318B\nB) $4,102B\nC) $4,448B\nD) $4,232B",
179
  "options": [
180
- "A) $4,318B",
181
- "B) $4,102B",
182
- "C) $4,448B",
183
- "D) $4,232B"
184
  ],
185
  "answer_letter": "A",
186
- "answer_raw": "$4,318B",
187
- "unit": "usd_billion",
188
  "condition": "forecast",
189
  "year": 1999
190
  },
191
  {
192
- "qid": "REC-DCOILWTICO-level-19990615",
193
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
194
  "subtype": "recurrent",
195
  "indicator": "DCOILWTICO",
196
  "transform": "level",
197
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
198
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
199
- "question": "What will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) $14.94/bbl\nB) $18.61/bbl\nC) $22.28/bbl\nD) $21.06/bbl",
200
  "options": [
201
- "A) $14.94/bbl",
202
- "B) $18.61/bbl",
203
- "C) $22.28/bbl",
204
- "D) $21.06/bbl"
205
  ],
206
  "answer_letter": "B",
207
- "answer_raw": "$18.61/bbl",
208
  "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
209
  "condition": "forecast",
210
  "year": 1999
211
  },
212
  {
213
- "qid": "REC-BOGMBASE-level-19990901",
214
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
215
  "subtype": "recurrent",
216
- "indicator": "BOGMBASE",
217
  "transform": "level",
218
- "target_period": "September 1999",
219
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
220
- "question": "What will the US Monetary Base (Millions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $4,300,000M\nB) $6,200,000M\nC) $557M\nD) $2,400,000M",
221
  "options": [
222
- "A) $4,300,000M",
223
- "B) $6,200,000M",
224
- "C) $557M",
225
- "D) $2,400,000M"
226
  ],
227
  "answer_letter": "C",
228
- "answer_raw": "$557M",
229
- "unit": "usd_million",
230
  "condition": "forecast",
231
  "year": 1999
232
  },
233
  {
234
- "qid": "REC-NASDAQCOM-level-19990615",
235
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
236
  "subtype": "recurrent",
237
- "indicator": "NASDAQCOM",
238
  "transform": "level",
239
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
240
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
241
- "question": "What will the NASDAQ Composite Index be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 2,465.11\nB) 2,313.78\nC) 2,566.00\nD) 2,414.67",
242
  "options": [
243
- "A) 2,465.11",
244
- "B) 2,313.78",
245
- "C) 2,566.00",
246
- "D) 2,414.67"
247
  ],
248
  "answer_letter": "D",
249
- "answer_raw": "2,414.67",
250
- "unit": "index",
251
  "condition": "forecast",
252
  "year": 1999
253
  },
254
  {
255
- "qid": "REC-VIXCLS-level-19990615",
256
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
257
  "subtype": "recurrent",
258
- "indicator": "VIXCLS",
259
  "transform": "level",
260
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
261
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
262
- "question": "What will the CBOE VIX Index be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 25.91\nB) 29.80\nC) 22.02\nD) 27.21",
263
  "options": [
264
- "A) 25.91",
265
- "B) 29.80",
266
- "C) 22.02",
267
- "D) 27.21"
268
  ],
269
  "answer_letter": "A",
270
- "answer_raw": "25.91",
271
- "unit": "index",
272
  "condition": "forecast",
273
  "year": 1999
274
  },
275
  {
276
- "qid": "REC-PERMIT-level-19990901",
277
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
278
  "subtype": "recurrent",
279
- "indicator": "PERMIT",
280
  "transform": "level",
281
- "target_period": "September 1999",
282
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
283
- "question": "What will the US Building Permits (Thousands of units) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 1,465K\nB) 1,551K\nC) 1,616K\nD) 1,508K",
284
  "options": [
285
- "A) 1,465K",
286
- "B) 1,551K",
287
- "C) 1,616K",
288
- "D) 1,508K"
289
  ],
290
  "answer_letter": "B",
291
- "answer_raw": "1,551K",
292
- "unit": "thousand_units",
293
  "condition": "forecast",
294
  "year": 1999
295
  },
296
  {
297
- "qid": "REC-DGS10-level-19990615",
298
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
299
  "subtype": "recurrent",
300
  "indicator": "DGS10",
301
  "transform": "level",
302
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
303
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
304
- "question": "What will the US 10-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 5.51%\nB) 5.67%\nC) 5.98%\nD) 6.45%",
305
  "options": [
306
- "A) 5.51%",
307
- "B) 5.67%",
308
- "C) 5.98%",
309
- "D) 6.45%"
310
  ],
311
  "answer_letter": "C",
312
- "answer_raw": "5.98%",
313
  "unit": "%",
314
  "condition": "forecast",
315
  "year": 1999
316
  },
317
  {
318
- "qid": "REC-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990615",
319
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
320
  "subtype": "recurrent",
321
- "indicator": "MORTGAGE30US",
322
  "transform": "level",
323
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
324
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-06",
325
- "question": "What will the US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-06.)\n\nA) 8.09%\nB) 7.83%\nC) 7.47%\nD) 7.65%",
326
  "options": [
327
- "A) 8.09%",
328
- "B) 7.83%",
329
- "C) 7.47%",
330
- "D) 7.65%"
331
  ],
332
  "answer_letter": "D",
333
- "answer_raw": "7.65%",
334
- "unit": "%",
335
  "condition": "forecast",
336
  "year": 1999
337
  },
338
  {
339
- "qid": "REC-PPIACO-level-19990901",
340
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
341
  "subtype": "recurrent",
342
- "indicator": "PPIACO",
343
  "transform": "level",
344
- "target_period": "September 1999",
345
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
346
- "question": "What will the US PPI All Commodities Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 128.00\nB) 124.16\nC) 130.56\nD) 134.40",
347
  "options": [
348
- "A) 128.00",
349
- "B) 124.16",
350
- "C) 130.56",
351
- "D) 134.40"
352
  ],
353
  "answer_letter": "A",
354
- "answer_raw": "128.00",
355
  "unit": "index",
356
  "condition": "forecast",
357
  "year": 1999
358
  },
359
  {
360
- "qid": "REC-NEWORDER-level-19990901",
361
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
362
  "subtype": "recurrent",
363
- "indicator": "NEWORDER",
364
  "transform": "level",
365
- "target_period": "September 1999",
366
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
367
- "question": "What will the US Core Capex New Orders (Millions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $66,480M\nB) $63,231M\nC) $60,794M\nD) $64,855M",
368
  "options": [
369
- "A) $66,480M",
370
- "B) $63,231M",
371
- "C) $60,794M",
372
- "D) $64,855M"
373
  ],
374
  "answer_letter": "B",
375
- "answer_raw": "$63,231M",
376
- "unit": "usd_million",
377
  "condition": "forecast",
378
  "year": 1999
379
  },
380
  {
381
- "qid": "REC-UMCSENT-level-19990901",
382
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
383
  "subtype": "recurrent",
384
- "indicator": "UMCSENT",
385
  "transform": "level",
386
- "target_period": "September 1999",
387
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
388
- "question": "What will the U Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 112.56\nB) 110.42\nC) 107.20\nD) 103.98",
389
  "options": [
390
- "A) 112.56",
391
- "B) 110.42",
392
- "C) 107.20",
393
- "D) 103.98"
394
  ],
395
  "answer_letter": "C",
396
- "answer_raw": "107.20",
397
- "unit": "index",
398
  "condition": "forecast",
399
  "year": 1999
400
  },
401
  {
402
- "qid": "REC-DEXCHUS-level-19990615",
403
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
404
  "subtype": "recurrent",
405
- "indicator": "DEXCHUS",
406
  "transform": "level",
407
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
408
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
409
- "question": "What will the USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate (CNY per USD) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 8.8576\nB) 8.0298\nC) 8.5264\nD) 8.2781",
410
  "options": [
411
- "A) 8.8576",
412
- "B) 8.0298",
413
- "C) 8.5264",
414
- "D) 8.2781"
415
  ],
416
  "answer_letter": "D",
417
- "answer_raw": "8.2781",
418
- "unit": "fx_rate",
419
  "condition": "forecast",
420
  "year": 1999
421
  },
422
  {
423
- "qid": "REC-TCU-level-19990901",
424
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
425
  "subtype": "recurrent",
426
- "indicator": "TCU",
427
  "transform": "level",
428
- "target_period": "September 1999",
429
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
430
- "question": "What will the US Capacity Utilization be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 81.36%\nB) 84.62%\nC) 79.74%\nD) 82.99%",
431
  "options": [
432
- "A) 81.36%",
433
- "B) 84.62%",
434
- "C) 79.74%",
435
- "D) 82.99%"
436
  ],
437
  "answer_letter": "A",
438
- "answer_raw": "81.36%",
439
  "unit": "%",
440
  "condition": "forecast",
441
  "year": 1999
442
  },
443
  {
444
- "qid": "REC-CIVPART-level-19990901",
445
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
446
  "subtype": "recurrent",
447
- "indicator": "CIVPART",
448
  "transform": "level",
449
- "target_period": "September 1999",
450
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
451
- "question": "What will the US Labor Force Participation Rate be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 62.98%\nB) 67.00%\nC) 64.99%\nD) 69.01%",
452
  "options": [
453
- "A) 62.98%",
454
- "B) 67.00%",
455
- "C) 64.99%",
456
- "D) 69.01%"
457
  ],
458
  "answer_letter": "B",
459
- "answer_raw": "67.00%",
460
- "unit": "%",
461
  "condition": "forecast",
462
  "year": 1999
463
  },
464
  {
465
- "qid": "REC-DEXJPUS-level-19990615",
466
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
467
  "subtype": "recurrent",
468
- "indicator": "DEXJPUS",
469
  "transform": "level",
470
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
471
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
472
- "question": "What will the USD/JPY Spot Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 124.1342\nB) 115.3737\nC) 120.6300\nD) 127.6384",
473
  "options": [
474
- "A) 124.1342",
475
- "B) 115.3737",
476
- "C) 120.6300",
477
- "D) 127.6384"
478
  ],
479
  "answer_letter": "C",
480
- "answer_raw": "120.6300",
481
- "unit": "fx_rate",
482
  "condition": "forecast",
483
  "year": 1999
484
  },
485
  {
486
- "qid": "REC-DEXUSEU-level-19990615",
487
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
488
  "subtype": "recurrent",
489
- "indicator": "DEXUSEU",
490
  "transform": "level",
491
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
492
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
493
- "question": "What will the EUR/USD Spot Exchange Rate (USD per EUR) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 1.0920\nB) 0.9170\nC) 0.9670\nD) 1.0420",
494
  "options": [
495
- "A) 1.0920",
496
- "B) 0.9170",
497
- "C) 0.9670",
498
- "D) 1.0420"
499
  ],
500
  "answer_letter": "D",
501
- "answer_raw": "1.0420",
502
- "unit": "fx_rate",
503
  "condition": "forecast",
504
  "year": 1999
505
  },
506
  {
507
- "qid": "REC-DGORDER-level-19990901",
508
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
509
  "subtype": "recurrent",
510
- "indicator": "DGORDER",
511
  "transform": "level",
512
- "target_period": "September 1999",
513
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
514
- "question": "What will the US Durable Goods Orders (Millions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $188,910M\nB) $192,688M\nC) $183,243M\nD) $198,356M",
515
  "options": [
516
- "A) $188,910M",
517
- "B) $192,688M",
518
- "C) $183,243M",
519
- "D) $198,356M"
520
  ],
521
  "answer_letter": "A",
522
- "answer_raw": "$188,910M",
523
- "unit": "usd_million",
524
  "condition": "forecast",
525
  "year": 1999
526
  },
527
  {
528
- "qid": "REC-M2SL-level-19990901",
529
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
530
  "subtype": "recurrent",
531
- "indicator": "M2SL",
532
  "transform": "level",
533
- "target_period": "September 1999",
534
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
535
- "question": "What will the US M2 Money Supply (Billions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $4,340B\nB) $4,569B\nC) $4,477B\nD) $4,660B",
536
  "options": [
537
- "A) $4,340B",
538
- "B) $4,569B",
539
- "C) $4,477B",
540
- "D) $4,660B"
541
  ],
542
  "answer_letter": "B",
543
- "answer_raw": "$4,569B",
544
- "unit": "usd_billion",
545
  "condition": "forecast",
546
  "year": 1999
547
  },
548
  {
549
- "qid": "REC-FEDFUNDS-level-19990901",
550
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
551
  "subtype": "recurrent",
552
- "indicator": "FEDFUNDS",
553
  "transform": "level",
554
- "target_period": "September 1999",
555
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
556
- "question": "What will the US Effective Federal Funds Rate be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 5.08%\nB) 5.44%\nC) 5.22%\nD) 4.86%",
557
  "options": [
558
- "A) 5.08%",
559
- "B) 5.44%",
560
- "C) 5.22%",
561
- "D) 4.86%"
562
  ],
563
  "answer_letter": "C",
564
- "answer_raw": "5.22%",
565
  "unit": "%",
566
  "condition": "forecast",
567
  "year": 1999
568
  },
569
  {
570
- "qid": "REC-PSAVERT-level-19990901",
571
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
572
  "subtype": "recurrent",
573
  "indicator": "PSAVERT",
574
  "transform": "level",
575
- "target_period": "September 1999",
576
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
577
- "question": "What will the US Personal Saving Rate be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 3.31%\nB) 4.09%\nC) 2.52%\nD) 3.70%",
578
  "options": [
579
- "A) 3.31%",
580
- "B) 4.09%",
581
- "C) 2.52%",
582
- "D) 3.70%"
583
  ],
584
  "answer_letter": "D",
585
- "answer_raw": "3.70%",
586
  "unit": "%",
587
  "condition": "forecast",
588
  "year": 1999
589
  },
590
  {
591
- "qid": "REC-PAYEMS-level-19990901",
592
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
593
  "subtype": "recurrent",
594
- "indicator": "PAYEMS",
595
  "transform": "level",
596
- "target_period": "September 1999",
597
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
598
- "question": "What will the US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 129,771K\nB) 121,985K\nC) 133,664K\nD) 125,878K",
599
  "options": [
600
- "A) 129,771K",
601
- "B) 121,985K",
602
- "C) 133,664K",
603
- "D) 125,878K"
604
  ],
605
  "answer_letter": "A",
606
- "answer_raw": "129,771K",
607
- "unit": "thousand_units",
608
  "condition": "forecast",
609
  "year": 1999
610
  },
611
  {
612
- "qid": "REC-CPILFESL-level-19990901",
613
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
614
  "subtype": "recurrent",
615
- "indicator": "CPILFESL",
616
  "transform": "level",
617
- "target_period": "September 1999",
618
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
619
- "question": "What will the US Core CPI Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 181.36\nB) 177.80\nC) 186.69\nD) 174.24",
620
  "options": [
621
- "A) 181.36",
622
- "B) 177.80",
623
- "C) 186.69",
624
- "D) 174.24"
625
  ],
626
  "answer_letter": "B",
627
- "answer_raw": "177.80",
628
  "unit": "index",
629
  "condition": "forecast",
630
  "year": 1999
631
  },
632
  {
633
- "qid": "REC-AHETPI-level-19990901",
634
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
635
  "subtype": "recurrent",
636
- "indicator": "AHETPI",
637
  "transform": "level",
638
- "target_period": "September 1999",
639
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
640
- "question": "What will the US Average Hourly Earnings be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $14.43/hr\nB) $14.02/hr\nC) $13.61/hr\nD) $13.20/hr",
641
  "options": [
642
- "A) $14.43/hr",
643
- "B) $14.02/hr",
644
- "C) $13.61/hr",
645
- "D) $13.20/hr"
646
  ],
647
  "answer_letter": "C",
648
- "answer_raw": "$13.61/hr",
649
- "unit": "usd_per_hour",
650
  "condition": "forecast",
651
  "year": 1999
652
  },
653
  {
654
- "qid": "REC-RSAFS-level-19990901",
655
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
656
  "subtype": "recurrent",
657
- "indicator": "RSAFS",
658
  "transform": "level",
659
- "target_period": "September 1999",
660
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
661
- "question": "What will the US Advance Retail Sales (Millions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $247,378M\nB) $267,780M\nC) $262,680M\nD) $255,029M",
662
  "options": [
663
- "A) $247,378M",
664
- "B) $267,780M",
665
- "C) $262,680M",
666
- "D) $255,029M"
667
  ],
668
  "answer_letter": "D",
669
- "answer_raw": "$255,029M",
670
- "unit": "usd_million",
671
  "condition": "forecast",
672
  "year": 1999
673
  },
674
  {
675
- "qid": "REC-CCSA-level-19990615",
676
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
677
  "subtype": "recurrent",
678
- "indicator": "CCSA",
679
  "transform": "level",
680
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
681
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-06",
682
- "question": "What will the US Continued Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-06.)\n\nA) 2,215,000\nB) 2,148,550\nC) 2,104,250\nD) 2,259,300",
683
  "options": [
684
- "A) 2,215,000",
685
- "B) 2,148,550",
686
- "C) 2,104,250",
687
- "D) 2,259,300"
688
  ],
689
  "answer_letter": "A",
690
- "answer_raw": "2,215,000",
691
- "unit": "count",
692
  "condition": "forecast",
693
  "year": 1999
694
  },
695
  {
696
- "qid": "REC-PCEPI-level-19990901",
697
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
698
  "subtype": "recurrent",
699
- "indicator": "PCEPI",
700
  "transform": "level",
701
- "target_period": "September 1999",
702
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
703
- "question": "What will the US PCE Price Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 70.23\nB) 72.41\nC) 74.58\nD) 76.03",
704
  "options": [
705
- "A) 70.23",
706
- "B) 72.41",
707
- "C) 74.58",
708
- "D) 76.03"
709
  ],
710
  "answer_letter": "B",
711
- "answer_raw": "72.41",
712
  "unit": "index",
713
  "condition": "forecast",
714
  "year": 1999
715
  },
716
  {
717
- "qid": "REC-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990615",
718
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
719
  "subtype": "recurrent",
720
- "indicator": "DCOILBRENTEU",
721
  "transform": "level",
722
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
723
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
724
- "question": "What will the Brent Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) $14.12/bbl\nB) $17.44/bbl\nC) $16.33/bbl\nD) $13.01/bbl",
725
  "options": [
726
- "A) $14.12/bbl",
727
- "B) $17.44/bbl",
728
- "C) $16.33/bbl",
729
- "D) $13.01/bbl"
730
  ],
731
  "answer_letter": "C",
732
- "answer_raw": "$16.33/bbl",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
733
  "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
734
  "condition": "forecast",
735
  "year": 1999
736
  },
737
  {
738
- "qid": "REC-PCE-level-19990901",
739
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
740
  "subtype": "recurrent",
741
- "indicator": "PCE",
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
742
  "transform": "level",
743
- "target_period": "September 1999",
744
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
745
- "question": "What will the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (Billions USD) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) $6,770B\nB) $6,195B\nC) $6,578B\nD) $6,386B",
746
  "options": [
747
- "A) $6,770B",
748
- "B) $6,195B",
749
- "C) $6,578B",
750
- "D) $6,386B"
751
  ],
752
  "answer_letter": "D",
753
- "answer_raw": "$6,386B",
754
- "unit": "usd_billion",
755
  "condition": "forecast",
756
  "year": 1999
757
  },
758
  {
759
- "qid": "REC-EMRATIO-level-19990901",
760
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
761
  "subtype": "recurrent",
762
- "indicator": "EMRATIO",
763
  "transform": "level",
764
- "target_period": "September 1999",
765
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
766
- "question": "What will the US Employment-Population Ratio be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 64.20%\nB) 62.27%\nC) 59.71%\nD) 66.13%",
767
  "options": [
768
- "A) 64.20%",
769
- "B) 62.27%",
770
- "C) 59.71%",
771
- "D) 66.13%"
772
  ],
773
  "answer_letter": "A",
774
- "answer_raw": "64.20%",
775
- "unit": "%",
776
  "condition": "forecast",
777
  "year": 1999
778
  },
779
  {
780
- "qid": "REC-DGS3MO-level-19990615",
781
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
782
  "subtype": "recurrent",
783
- "indicator": "DGS3MO",
784
  "transform": "level",
785
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
786
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
787
- "question": "What will the US 3-Month Treasury Yield be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 4.58%\nB) 4.74%\nC) 4.90%\nD) 5.00%",
788
  "options": [
789
- "A) 4.58%",
790
- "B) 4.74%",
791
- "C) 4.90%",
792
- "D) 5.00%"
793
  ],
794
  "answer_letter": "B",
795
- "answer_raw": "4.74%",
796
  "unit": "%",
797
  "condition": "forecast",
798
  "year": 1999
799
  },
800
  {
801
- "qid": "REC-UNRATE-level-19990901",
802
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
803
  "subtype": "recurrent",
804
- "indicator": "UNRATE",
805
  "transform": "level",
806
- "target_period": "September 1999",
807
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
808
- "question": "What will the US Unemployment Rate be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 4.33%\nB) 3.95%\nC) 4.20%\nD) 4.07%",
809
  "options": [
810
- "A) 4.33%",
811
- "B) 3.95%",
812
- "C) 4.20%",
813
- "D) 4.07%"
814
  ],
815
  "answer_letter": "C",
816
- "answer_raw": "4.20%",
817
  "unit": "%",
818
  "condition": "forecast",
819
  "year": 1999
820
  },
821
  {
822
- "qid": "REC-DGS2-level-19990615",
823
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
824
  "subtype": "recurrent",
825
- "indicator": "DGS2",
826
  "transform": "level",
827
- "target_period": "1999-06-15",
828
- "info_cutoff": "1999-06-08",
829
- "question": "What will the US 2-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-06-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-06-08.)\n\nA) 5.53%\nB) 6.05%\nC) 5.27%\nD) 5.66%",
830
  "options": [
831
- "A) 5.53%",
832
- "B) 6.05%",
833
- "C) 5.27%",
834
- "D) 5.66%"
835
  ],
836
  "answer_letter": "D",
837
- "answer_raw": "5.66%",
838
- "unit": "%",
839
  "condition": "forecast",
840
  "year": 1999
841
  },
842
  {
843
- "qid": "REC-CPIAUCSL-level-19990901",
844
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
845
  "subtype": "recurrent",
846
- "indicator": "CPIAUCSL",
847
  "transform": "level",
848
- "target_period": "September 1999",
849
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
850
- "question": "What will the US CPI Index (1982-84=100) be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 167.80\nB) 162.77\nC) 177.87\nD) 172.83",
851
  "options": [
852
- "A) 167.80",
853
- "B) 162.77",
854
- "C) 177.87",
855
- "D) 172.83"
856
  ],
857
  "answer_letter": "A",
858
- "answer_raw": "167.80",
859
  "unit": "index",
860
  "condition": "forecast",
861
  "year": 1999
862
  },
863
  {
864
- "qid": "REC-INDPRO-level-19990901",
865
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
866
  "subtype": "recurrent",
867
  "indicator": "INDPRO",
868
  "transform": "level",
869
- "target_period": "September 1999",
870
- "info_cutoff": "1999-08-01",
871
- "question": "What will the US Industrial Production Index be for September 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-01.)\n\nA) 84.96\nB) 89.43\nC) 86.75\nD) 92.11",
872
  "options": [
873
- "A) 84.96",
874
- "B) 89.43",
875
- "C) 86.75",
876
- "D) 92.11"
877
  ],
878
  "answer_letter": "B",
879
- "answer_raw": "89.43",
880
  "unit": "index",
881
  "condition": "forecast",
882
  "year": 1999
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
883
  }
884
  ]
 
1
  [
2
  {
3
+ "qid": "REC-T10Y2Y-level-19990215",
4
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
5
  "subtype": "recurrent",
6
  "indicator": "T10Y2Y",
7
  "transform": "level",
8
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
9
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
10
+ "question": "What will the US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) +0.10pp\nB) -0.05pp\nC) +0.02pp\nD) +0.18pp",
11
  "options": [
12
+ "A) +0.10pp",
13
+ "B) -0.05pp",
14
+ "C) +0.02pp",
15
+ "D) +0.18pp"
16
  ],
17
  "answer_letter": "A",
18
+ "answer_raw": "+0.10pp",
19
  "unit": "pp",
20
  "condition": "forecast",
21
  "year": 1999
22
  },
23
  {
24
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILWTICO-level-19990515",
25
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
26
  "subtype": "recurrent",
27
+ "indicator": "DCOILWTICO",
28
  "transform": "level",
29
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
30
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
31
+ "question": "What will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) $20.45/bbl\nB) $18.04/bbl\nC) $19.24/bbl\nD) $16.84/bbl",
32
  "options": [
33
+ "A) $20.45/bbl",
34
+ "B) $18.04/bbl",
35
+ "C) $19.24/bbl",
36
+ "D) $16.84/bbl"
37
  ],
38
  "answer_letter": "B",
39
+ "answer_raw": "$18.04/bbl",
40
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
41
  "condition": "forecast",
42
  "year": 1999
43
  },
44
  {
45
+ "qid": "REC-DEXUSEU-level-19990815",
46
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
47
  "subtype": "recurrent",
48
+ "indicator": "DEXUSEU",
49
  "transform": "level",
50
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
51
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
52
+ "question": "What will the EUR/USD Spot Exchange Rate (USD per EUR) be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 1.1557\nB) 1.1057\nC) 1.0557\nD) 0.9807",
53
  "options": [
54
+ "A) 1.1557",
55
+ "B) 1.1057",
56
+ "C) 1.0557",
57
+ "D) 0.9807"
58
  ],
59
  "answer_letter": "C",
60
+ "answer_raw": "1.0557",
61
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
62
  "condition": "forecast",
63
  "year": 1999
64
  },
65
  {
66
+ "qid": "REC-DGS2-level-19990815",
67
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
68
  "subtype": "recurrent",
69
+ "indicator": "DGS2",
70
  "transform": "level",
71
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
72
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
73
+ "question": "What will the US 2-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 5.93%\nB) 6.10%\nC) 6.28%\nD) 5.75%",
74
  "options": [
75
+ "A) 5.93%",
76
+ "B) 6.10%",
77
+ "C) 6.28%",
78
+ "D) 5.75%"
79
  ],
80
  "answer_letter": "D",
81
+ "answer_raw": "5.75%",
82
  "unit": "%",
83
  "condition": "forecast",
84
  "year": 1999
85
  },
86
  {
87
+ "qid": "REC-TCU-level-19990801",
88
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
89
  "subtype": "recurrent",
90
+ "indicator": "TCU",
91
  "transform": "level",
92
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
93
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
94
+ "question": "What will the US Capacity Utilization be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 81.98%\nB) 84.44%\nC) 79.52%\nD) 77.88%",
95
  "options": [
96
+ "A) 81.98%",
97
+ "B) 84.44%",
98
+ "C) 79.52%",
99
+ "D) 77.88%"
100
  ],
101
  "answer_letter": "A",
102
+ "answer_raw": "81.98%",
103
+ "unit": "%",
104
  "condition": "forecast",
105
  "year": 1999
106
  },
107
  {
108
+ "qid": "REC-DSPI-level-19991101",
109
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
110
  "subtype": "recurrent",
111
+ "indicator": "DSPI",
112
  "transform": "level",
113
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
114
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
115
+ "question": "What will the US Disposable Personal Income (Billions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $7,363B\nB) $7,012B\nC) $7,223B\nD) $6,872B",
116
  "options": [
117
+ "A) $7,363B",
118
+ "B) $7,012B",
119
+ "C) $7,223B",
120
+ "D) $6,872B"
121
  ],
122
  "answer_letter": "B",
123
+ "answer_raw": "$7,012B",
124
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
125
  "condition": "forecast",
126
  "year": 1999
127
  },
128
  {
129
+ "qid": "REC-NASDAQCOM-level-19990815",
130
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
131
  "subtype": "recurrent",
132
+ "indicator": "NASDAQCOM",
133
  "transform": "level",
134
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
135
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
136
+ "question": "What will the NASDAQ Composite Index be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 2,502.55\nB) 2,716.64\nC) 2,645.28\nD) 2,788.01",
137
  "options": [
138
+ "A) 2,502.55",
139
+ "B) 2,716.64",
140
+ "C) 2,645.28",
141
+ "D) 2,788.01"
142
  ],
143
  "answer_letter": "C",
144
+ "answer_raw": "2,645.28",
145
+ "unit": "index",
146
  "condition": "forecast",
147
  "year": 1999
148
  },
149
  {
150
+ "qid": "REC-TOTBKCR-level-19991115",
151
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
152
  "subtype": "recurrent",
153
+ "indicator": "TOTBKCR",
154
  "transform": "level",
155
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
156
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-06",
157
+ "question": "What will the US Total Bank Credit (Billions USD) be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-06.)\n\nA) $4,586B\nB) $4,230B\nC) $4,319B\nD) $4,452B",
158
  "options": [
159
+ "A) $4,586B",
160
+ "B) $4,230B",
161
+ "C) $4,319B",
162
+ "D) $4,452B"
163
  ],
164
  "answer_letter": "D",
165
+ "answer_raw": "$4,452B",
166
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
167
  "condition": "forecast",
168
  "year": 1999
169
  },
170
  {
171
+ "qid": "REC-DGS30-level-19990815",
172
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
173
  "subtype": "recurrent",
174
+ "indicator": "DGS30",
175
  "transform": "level",
176
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
177
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
178
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 6.10%\nB) 5.79%\nC) 6.26%\nD) 6.41%",
179
  "options": [
180
+ "A) 6.10%",
181
+ "B) 5.79%",
182
+ "C) 6.26%",
183
+ "D) 6.41%"
184
  ],
185
  "answer_letter": "A",
186
+ "answer_raw": "6.10%",
187
+ "unit": "%",
188
  "condition": "forecast",
189
  "year": 1999
190
  },
191
  {
192
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILWTICO-level-19990815",
193
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
194
  "subtype": "recurrent",
195
  "indicator": "DCOILWTICO",
196
  "transform": "level",
197
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
198
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
199
+ "question": "What will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) $24.26/bbl\nB) $21.34/bbl\nC) $18.42/bbl\nD) $25.73/bbl",
200
  "options": [
201
+ "A) $24.26/bbl",
202
+ "B) $21.34/bbl",
203
+ "C) $18.42/bbl",
204
+ "D) $25.73/bbl"
205
  ],
206
  "answer_letter": "B",
207
+ "answer_raw": "$21.34/bbl",
208
  "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
209
  "condition": "forecast",
210
  "year": 1999
211
  },
212
  {
213
+ "qid": "REC-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990815",
214
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
215
  "subtype": "recurrent",
216
+ "indicator": "MORTGAGE30US",
217
  "transform": "level",
218
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
219
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-06",
220
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-06.)\n\nA) 7.62%\nB) 8.33%\nC) 8.15%\nD) 8.51%",
221
  "options": [
222
+ "A) 7.62%",
223
+ "B) 8.33%",
224
+ "C) 8.15%",
225
+ "D) 8.51%"
226
  ],
227
  "answer_letter": "C",
228
+ "answer_raw": "8.15%",
229
+ "unit": "%",
230
  "condition": "forecast",
231
  "year": 1999
232
  },
233
  {
234
+ "qid": "REC-DGS3MO-level-19991115",
235
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
236
  "subtype": "recurrent",
237
+ "indicator": "DGS3MO",
238
  "transform": "level",
239
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
240
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
241
+ "question": "What will the US 3-Month Treasury Yield be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 5.50%\nB) 5.71%\nC) 4.98%\nD) 5.29%",
242
  "options": [
243
+ "A) 5.50%",
244
+ "B) 5.71%",
245
+ "C) 4.98%",
246
+ "D) 5.29%"
247
  ],
248
  "answer_letter": "D",
249
+ "answer_raw": "5.29%",
250
+ "unit": "%",
251
  "condition": "forecast",
252
  "year": 1999
253
  },
254
  {
255
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990215",
256
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
257
  "subtype": "recurrent",
258
+ "indicator": "DCOILBRENTEU",
259
  "transform": "level",
260
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
261
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
262
+ "question": "What will the Brent Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) $9.98/bbl\nB) $10.46/bbl\nC) $10.22/bbl\nD) $10.70/bbl",
263
  "options": [
264
+ "A) $9.98/bbl",
265
+ "B) $10.46/bbl",
266
+ "C) $10.22/bbl",
267
+ "D) $10.70/bbl"
268
  ],
269
  "answer_letter": "A",
270
+ "answer_raw": "$9.98/bbl",
271
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
272
  "condition": "forecast",
273
  "year": 1999
274
  },
275
  {
276
+ "qid": "REC-DEXCHUS-level-19990815",
277
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
278
  "subtype": "recurrent",
279
+ "indicator": "DEXCHUS",
280
  "transform": "level",
281
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
282
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
283
+ "question": "What will the USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate (CNY per USD) be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 8.0291\nB) 8.2774\nC) 7.8635\nD) 8.5257",
284
  "options": [
285
+ "A) 8.0291",
286
+ "B) 8.2774",
287
+ "C) 7.8635",
288
+ "D) 8.5257"
289
  ],
290
  "answer_letter": "B",
291
+ "answer_raw": "8.2774",
292
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
293
  "condition": "forecast",
294
  "year": 1999
295
  },
296
  {
297
+ "qid": "REC-DGS10-level-19990515",
298
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
299
  "subtype": "recurrent",
300
  "indicator": "DGS10",
301
  "transform": "level",
302
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
303
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
304
+ "question": "What will the US 10-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 5.38%\nB) 5.26%\nC) 5.62%\nD) 5.74%",
305
  "options": [
306
+ "A) 5.38%",
307
+ "B) 5.26%",
308
+ "C) 5.62%",
309
+ "D) 5.74%"
310
  ],
311
  "answer_letter": "C",
312
+ "answer_raw": "5.62%",
313
  "unit": "%",
314
  "condition": "forecast",
315
  "year": 1999
316
  },
317
  {
318
+ "qid": "REC-DEXUSEU-level-19991115",
319
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
320
  "subtype": "recurrent",
321
+ "indicator": "DEXUSEU",
322
  "transform": "level",
323
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
324
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
325
+ "question": "What will the EUR/USD Spot Exchange Rate (USD per EUR) be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 1.1315\nB) 0.9565\nC) 1.0815\nD) 1.0315",
326
  "options": [
327
+ "A) 1.1315",
328
+ "B) 0.9565",
329
+ "C) 1.0815",
330
+ "D) 1.0315"
331
  ],
332
  "answer_letter": "D",
333
+ "answer_raw": "1.0315",
334
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
335
  "condition": "forecast",
336
  "year": 1999
337
  },
338
  {
339
+ "qid": "REC-NASDAQCOM-level-19991115",
340
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
341
  "subtype": "recurrent",
342
+ "indicator": "NASDAQCOM",
343
  "transform": "level",
344
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
345
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
346
+ "question": "What will the NASDAQ Composite Index be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 3,219.54\nB) 3,512.23\nC) 3,121.98\nD) 3,317.10",
347
  "options": [
348
+ "A) 3,219.54",
349
+ "B) 3,512.23",
350
+ "C) 3,121.98",
351
+ "D) 3,317.10"
352
  ],
353
  "answer_letter": "A",
354
+ "answer_raw": "3,219.54",
355
  "unit": "index",
356
  "condition": "forecast",
357
  "year": 1999
358
  },
359
  {
360
+ "qid": "REC-FEDFUNDS-level-19991101",
361
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
362
  "subtype": "recurrent",
363
+ "indicator": "FEDFUNDS",
364
  "transform": "level",
365
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
366
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
367
+ "question": "What will the US Effective Federal Funds Rate be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 5.21%\nB) 5.42%\nC) 5.95%\nD) 5.63%",
368
  "options": [
369
+ "A) 5.21%",
370
+ "B) 5.42%",
371
+ "C) 5.95%",
372
+ "D) 5.63%"
373
  ],
374
  "answer_letter": "B",
375
+ "answer_raw": "5.42%",
376
+ "unit": "%",
377
  "condition": "forecast",
378
  "year": 1999
379
  },
380
  {
381
+ "qid": "REC-MORTGAGE30US-level-19991115",
382
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
383
  "subtype": "recurrent",
384
+ "indicator": "MORTGAGE30US",
385
  "transform": "level",
386
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
387
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-06",
388
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-06.)\n\nA) 7.22%\nB) 7.00%\nC) 7.67%\nD) 8.34%",
389
  "options": [
390
+ "A) 7.22%",
391
+ "B) 7.00%",
392
+ "C) 7.67%",
393
+ "D) 8.34%"
394
  ],
395
  "answer_letter": "C",
396
+ "answer_raw": "7.67%",
397
+ "unit": "%",
398
  "condition": "forecast",
399
  "year": 1999
400
  },
401
  {
402
+ "qid": "REC-DGS30-level-19990515",
403
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
404
  "subtype": "recurrent",
405
+ "indicator": "DGS30",
406
  "transform": "level",
407
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
408
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
409
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 6.40%\nB) 6.11%\nC) 5.73%\nD) 5.92%",
410
  "options": [
411
+ "A) 6.40%",
412
+ "B) 6.11%",
413
+ "C) 5.73%",
414
+ "D) 5.92%"
415
  ],
416
  "answer_letter": "D",
417
+ "answer_raw": "5.92%",
418
+ "unit": "%",
419
  "condition": "forecast",
420
  "year": 1999
421
  },
422
  {
423
+ "qid": "REC-EMRATIO-level-19990801",
424
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
425
  "subtype": "recurrent",
426
+ "indicator": "EMRATIO",
427
  "transform": "level",
428
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
429
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
430
+ "question": "What will the US Employment-Population Ratio be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 64.20%\nB) 62.27%\nC) 68.05%\nD) 66.13%",
431
  "options": [
432
+ "A) 64.20%",
433
+ "B) 62.27%",
434
+ "C) 68.05%",
435
+ "D) 66.13%"
436
  ],
437
  "answer_letter": "A",
438
+ "answer_raw": "64.20%",
439
  "unit": "%",
440
  "condition": "forecast",
441
  "year": 1999
442
  },
443
  {
444
+ "qid": "REC-VIXCLS-level-19990215",
445
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
446
  "subtype": "recurrent",
447
+ "indicator": "VIXCLS",
448
  "transform": "level",
449
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
450
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
451
+ "question": "What will the CBOE VIX Index be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 33.55\nB) 29.65\nC) 28.35\nD) 27.05",
452
  "options": [
453
+ "A) 33.55",
454
+ "B) 29.65",
455
+ "C) 28.35",
456
+ "D) 27.05"
457
  ],
458
  "answer_letter": "B",
459
+ "answer_raw": "29.65",
460
+ "unit": "index",
461
  "condition": "forecast",
462
  "year": 1999
463
  },
464
  {
465
+ "qid": "REC-DGS3MO-level-19990215",
466
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
467
  "subtype": "recurrent",
468
+ "indicator": "DGS3MO",
469
  "transform": "level",
470
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
471
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
472
+ "question": "What will the US 3-Month Treasury Yield be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 4.70%\nB) 4.42%\nC) 4.56%\nD) 4.29%",
473
  "options": [
474
+ "A) 4.70%",
475
+ "B) 4.42%",
476
+ "C) 4.56%",
477
+ "D) 4.29%"
478
  ],
479
  "answer_letter": "C",
480
+ "answer_raw": "4.56%",
481
+ "unit": "%",
482
  "condition": "forecast",
483
  "year": 1999
484
  },
485
  {
486
+ "qid": "REC-HOUST-level-19990801",
487
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
488
  "subtype": "recurrent",
489
+ "indicator": "HOUST",
490
  "transform": "level",
491
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
492
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
493
+ "question": "What will the US Housing Starts (Thousands of units) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 1,685K\nB) 1,611K\nC) 1,722K\nD) 1,648K",
494
  "options": [
495
+ "A) 1,685K",
496
+ "B) 1,611K",
497
+ "C) 1,722K",
498
+ "D) 1,648K"
499
  ],
500
  "answer_letter": "D",
501
+ "answer_raw": "1,648K",
502
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
503
  "condition": "forecast",
504
  "year": 1999
505
  },
506
  {
507
+ "qid": "REC-UNRATE-level-19990801",
508
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
509
  "subtype": "recurrent",
510
+ "indicator": "UNRATE",
511
  "transform": "level",
512
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
513
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
514
+ "question": "What will the US Unemployment Rate be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 4.20%\nB) 4.33%\nC) 4.07%\nD) 4.49%",
515
  "options": [
516
+ "A) 4.20%",
517
+ "B) 4.33%",
518
+ "C) 4.07%",
519
+ "D) 4.49%"
520
  ],
521
  "answer_letter": "A",
522
+ "answer_raw": "4.20%",
523
+ "unit": "%",
524
  "condition": "forecast",
525
  "year": 1999
526
  },
527
  {
528
+ "qid": "REC-DGS5-level-19990215",
529
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
530
  "subtype": "recurrent",
531
+ "indicator": "DGS5",
532
  "transform": "level",
533
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
534
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
535
+ "question": "What will the US 5-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 4.86%\nB) 4.96%\nC) 5.17%\nD) 5.06%",
536
  "options": [
537
+ "A) 4.86%",
538
+ "B) 4.96%",
539
+ "C) 5.17%",
540
+ "D) 5.06%"
541
  ],
542
  "answer_letter": "B",
543
+ "answer_raw": "4.96%",
544
+ "unit": "%",
545
  "condition": "forecast",
546
  "year": 1999
547
  },
548
  {
549
+ "qid": "REC-DGS10-level-19990215",
550
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
551
  "subtype": "recurrent",
552
+ "indicator": "DGS10",
553
  "transform": "level",
554
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
555
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
556
+ "question": "What will the US 10-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 5.13%\nB) 4.88%\nC) 5.03%\nD) 4.78%",
557
  "options": [
558
+ "A) 5.13%",
559
+ "B) 4.88%",
560
+ "C) 5.03%",
561
+ "D) 4.78%"
562
  ],
563
  "answer_letter": "C",
564
+ "answer_raw": "5.03%",
565
  "unit": "%",
566
  "condition": "forecast",
567
  "year": 1999
568
  },
569
  {
570
+ "qid": "REC-PSAVERT-level-19990801",
571
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
572
  "subtype": "recurrent",
573
  "indicator": "PSAVERT",
574
  "transform": "level",
575
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
576
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
577
+ "question": "What will the US Personal Saving Rate be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 3.50%\nB) 3.90%\nC) 4.70%\nD) 4.30%",
578
  "options": [
579
+ "A) 3.50%",
580
+ "B) 3.90%",
581
+ "C) 4.70%",
582
+ "D) 4.30%"
583
  ],
584
  "answer_letter": "D",
585
+ "answer_raw": "4.30%",
586
  "unit": "%",
587
  "condition": "forecast",
588
  "year": 1999
589
  },
590
  {
591
+ "qid": "REC-CIVPART-level-19990801",
592
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
593
  "subtype": "recurrent",
594
+ "indicator": "CIVPART",
595
  "transform": "level",
596
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
597
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
598
+ "question": "What will the US Labor Force Participation Rate be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 67.00%\nB) 68.34%\nC) 63.65%\nD) 65.66%",
599
  "options": [
600
+ "A) 67.00%",
601
+ "B) 68.34%",
602
+ "C) 63.65%",
603
+ "D) 65.66%"
604
  ],
605
  "answer_letter": "A",
606
+ "answer_raw": "67.00%",
607
+ "unit": "%",
608
  "condition": "forecast",
609
  "year": 1999
610
  },
611
  {
612
+ "qid": "REC-UMCSENT-level-19991101",
613
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
614
  "subtype": "recurrent",
615
+ "indicator": "UMCSENT",
616
  "transform": "level",
617
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
618
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
619
+ "question": "What will the U Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 109.34\nB) 107.20\nC) 101.84\nD) 105.06",
620
  "options": [
621
+ "A) 109.34",
622
+ "B) 107.20",
623
+ "C) 101.84",
624
+ "D) 105.06"
625
  ],
626
  "answer_letter": "B",
627
+ "answer_raw": "107.20",
628
  "unit": "index",
629
  "condition": "forecast",
630
  "year": 1999
631
  },
632
  {
633
+ "qid": "REC-ICSA-level-19991115",
634
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
635
  "subtype": "recurrent",
636
+ "indicator": "ICSA",
637
  "transform": "level",
638
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
639
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-06",
640
+ "question": "What will the US Initial Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-06.)\n\nA) 302,510\nB) 273,830\nC) 281,000\nD) 288,170",
641
  "options": [
642
+ "A) 302,510",
643
+ "B) 273,830",
644
+ "C) 281,000",
645
+ "D) 288,170"
646
  ],
647
  "answer_letter": "C",
648
+ "answer_raw": "281,000",
649
+ "unit": "count",
650
  "condition": "forecast",
651
  "year": 1999
652
  },
653
  {
654
+ "qid": "REC-VIXCLS-level-19990515",
655
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
656
  "subtype": "recurrent",
657
+ "indicator": "VIXCLS",
658
  "transform": "level",
659
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
660
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
661
+ "question": "What will the CBOE VIX Index be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 22.66\nB) 29.66\nC) 28.26\nD) 26.86",
662
  "options": [
663
+ "A) 22.66",
664
+ "B) 29.66",
665
+ "C) 28.26",
666
+ "D) 26.86"
667
  ],
668
  "answer_letter": "D",
669
+ "answer_raw": "26.86",
670
+ "unit": "index",
671
  "condition": "forecast",
672
  "year": 1999
673
  },
674
  {
675
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILWTICO-level-19991115",
676
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
677
  "subtype": "recurrent",
678
+ "indicator": "DCOILWTICO",
679
  "transform": "level",
680
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
681
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
682
+ "question": "What will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) $25.31/bbl\nB) $19.45/bbl\nC) $27.26/bbl\nD) $29.22/bbl",
683
  "options": [
684
+ "A) $25.31/bbl",
685
+ "B) $19.45/bbl",
686
+ "C) $27.26/bbl",
687
+ "D) $29.22/bbl"
688
  ],
689
  "answer_letter": "A",
690
+ "answer_raw": "$25.31/bbl",
691
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
692
  "condition": "forecast",
693
  "year": 1999
694
  },
695
  {
696
+ "qid": "REC-PPIACO-level-19991101",
697
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
698
  "subtype": "recurrent",
699
+ "indicator": "PPIACO",
700
  "transform": "level",
701
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
702
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
703
+ "question": "What will the US PPI All Commodities Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 134.72\nB) 128.30\nC) 132.15\nD) 125.73",
704
  "options": [
705
+ "A) 134.72",
706
+ "B) 128.30",
707
+ "C) 132.15",
708
+ "D) 125.73"
709
  ],
710
  "answer_letter": "B",
711
+ "answer_raw": "128.30",
712
  "unit": "index",
713
  "condition": "forecast",
714
  "year": 1999
715
  },
716
  {
717
+ "qid": "REC-DGS3MO-level-19990515",
718
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
719
  "subtype": "recurrent",
720
+ "indicator": "DGS3MO",
721
  "transform": "level",
722
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
723
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
724
+ "question": "What will the US 3-Month Treasury Yield be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 4.40%\nB) 4.55%\nC) 4.64%\nD) 4.78%",
725
  "options": [
726
+ "A) 4.40%",
727
+ "B) 4.55%",
728
+ "C) 4.64%",
729
+ "D) 4.78%"
730
  ],
731
  "answer_letter": "C",
732
+ "answer_raw": "4.64%",
733
+ "unit": "%",
734
+ "condition": "forecast",
735
+ "year": 1999
736
+ },
737
+ {
738
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990515",
739
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
740
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
741
+ "indicator": "DCOILBRENTEU",
742
+ "transform": "level",
743
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
744
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
745
+ "question": "What will the Brent Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) $16.29/bbl\nB) $11.86/bbl\nC) $12.97/bbl\nD) $15.18/bbl",
746
+ "options": [
747
+ "A) $16.29/bbl",
748
+ "B) $11.86/bbl",
749
+ "C) $12.97/bbl",
750
+ "D) $15.18/bbl"
751
+ ],
752
+ "answer_letter": "D",
753
+ "answer_raw": "$15.18/bbl",
754
  "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
755
  "condition": "forecast",
756
  "year": 1999
757
  },
758
  {
759
+ "qid": "REC-AHETPI-level-19990801",
760
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
761
  "subtype": "recurrent",
762
+ "indicator": "AHETPI",
763
+ "transform": "level",
764
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
765
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
766
+ "question": "What will the US Average Hourly Earnings be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $13.53/hr\nB) $13.12/hr\nC) $12.58/hr\nD) $13.94/hr",
767
+ "options": [
768
+ "A) $13.53/hr",
769
+ "B) $13.12/hr",
770
+ "C) $12.58/hr",
771
+ "D) $13.94/hr"
772
+ ],
773
+ "answer_letter": "A",
774
+ "answer_raw": "$13.53/hr",
775
+ "unit": "usd_per_hour",
776
+ "condition": "forecast",
777
+ "year": 1999
778
+ },
779
+ {
780
+ "qid": "REC-DEXJPUS-level-19990815",
781
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
782
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
783
+ "indicator": "DEXJPUS",
784
+ "transform": "level",
785
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
786
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
787
+ "question": "What will the USD/JPY Spot Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 123.1064\nB) 114.8300\nC) 118.1406\nD) 109.8642",
788
+ "options": [
789
+ "A) 123.1064",
790
+ "B) 114.8300",
791
+ "C) 118.1406",
792
+ "D) 109.8642"
793
+ ],
794
+ "answer_letter": "B",
795
+ "answer_raw": "114.8300",
796
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
797
+ "condition": "forecast",
798
+ "year": 1999
799
+ },
800
+ {
801
+ "qid": "REC-HOUST-level-19991101",
802
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
803
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
804
+ "indicator": "HOUST",
805
+ "transform": "level",
806
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
807
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
808
+ "question": "What will the US Housing Starts (Thousands of units) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 1,710K\nB) 1,772K\nC) 1,648K\nD) 1,586K",
809
+ "options": [
810
+ "A) 1,710K",
811
+ "B) 1,772K",
812
+ "C) 1,648K",
813
+ "D) 1,586K"
814
+ ],
815
+ "answer_letter": "C",
816
+ "answer_raw": "1,648K",
817
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
818
+ "condition": "forecast",
819
+ "year": 1999
820
+ },
821
+ {
822
+ "qid": "REC-PCEPILFE-level-19991101",
823
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
824
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
825
+ "indicator": "PCEPILFE",
826
  "transform": "level",
827
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
828
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
829
+ "question": "What will the US Core PCE Price Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 71.81\nB) 76.26\nC) 70.33\nD) 74.03",
830
  "options": [
831
+ "A) 71.81",
832
+ "B) 76.26",
833
+ "C) 70.33",
834
+ "D) 74.03"
835
  ],
836
  "answer_letter": "D",
837
+ "answer_raw": "74.03",
838
+ "unit": "index",
839
  "condition": "forecast",
840
  "year": 1999
841
  },
842
  {
843
+ "qid": "REC-DEXJPUS-level-19990515",
844
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
845
  "subtype": "recurrent",
846
+ "indicator": "DEXJPUS",
847
  "transform": "level",
848
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
849
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
850
+ "question": "What will the USD/JPY Spot Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 122.6400\nB) 125.9752\nC) 130.9779\nD) 117.6373",
851
  "options": [
852
+ "A) 122.6400",
853
+ "B) 125.9752",
854
+ "C) 130.9779",
855
+ "D) 117.6373"
856
  ],
857
  "answer_letter": "A",
858
+ "answer_raw": "122.6400",
859
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
860
  "condition": "forecast",
861
  "year": 1999
862
  },
863
  {
864
+ "qid": "REC-PSAVERT-level-19991101",
865
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
866
  "subtype": "recurrent",
867
+ "indicator": "PSAVERT",
868
  "transform": "level",
869
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
870
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
871
+ "question": "What will the US Personal Saving Rate be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 3.26%\nB) 4.10%\nC) 5.37%\nD) 4.52%",
872
  "options": [
873
+ "A) 3.26%",
874
+ "B) 4.10%",
875
+ "C) 5.37%",
876
+ "D) 4.52%"
877
  ],
878
  "answer_letter": "B",
879
+ "answer_raw": "4.10%",
880
  "unit": "%",
881
  "condition": "forecast",
882
  "year": 1999
883
  },
884
  {
885
+ "qid": "REC-DGS5-level-19990815",
886
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
887
  "subtype": "recurrent",
888
+ "indicator": "DGS5",
889
  "transform": "level",
890
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
891
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
892
+ "question": "What will the US 5-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 6.50%\nB) 5.26%\nC) 5.88%\nD) 5.67%",
893
  "options": [
894
+ "A) 6.50%",
895
+ "B) 5.26%",
896
+ "C) 5.88%",
897
+ "D) 5.67%"
898
  ],
899
  "answer_letter": "C",
900
+ "answer_raw": "5.88%",
901
  "unit": "%",
902
  "condition": "forecast",
903
  "year": 1999
904
  },
905
  {
906
+ "qid": "REC-NEWORDER-level-19991101",
907
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
908
  "subtype": "recurrent",
909
+ "indicator": "NEWORDER",
910
  "transform": "level",
911
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
912
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
913
+ "question": "What will the US Core Capex New Orders (Millions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $59,026M\nB) $57,144M\nC) $63,731M\nD) $61,849M",
914
  "options": [
915
+ "A) $59,026M",
916
+ "B) $57,144M",
917
+ "C) $63,731M",
918
+ "D) $61,849M"
919
  ],
920
  "answer_letter": "D",
921
+ "answer_raw": "$61,849M",
922
+ "unit": "usd_million",
923
  "condition": "forecast",
924
  "year": 1999
925
  },
926
  {
927
+ "qid": "REC-CPILFESL-level-19991101",
928
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
929
  "subtype": "recurrent",
930
+ "indicator": "CPILFESL",
931
  "transform": "level",
932
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
933
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
934
+ "question": "What will the US Core CPI Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 178.40\nB) 167.70\nC) 183.75\nD) 173.05",
935
  "options": [
936
+ "A) 178.40",
937
+ "B) 167.70",
938
+ "C) 183.75",
939
+ "D) 173.05"
940
  ],
941
  "answer_letter": "A",
942
+ "answer_raw": "178.40",
943
  "unit": "index",
944
  "condition": "forecast",
945
  "year": 1999
946
  },
947
  {
948
+ "qid": "REC-INDPRO-level-19990801",
949
  "forecastType": "Recurrent",
950
  "subtype": "recurrent",
951
  "indicator": "INDPRO",
952
  "transform": "level",
953
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
954
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
955
+ "question": "What will the US Industrial Production Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 94.28\nB) 89.79\nC) 92.49\nD) 87.10",
956
  "options": [
957
+ "A) 94.28",
958
+ "B) 89.79",
959
+ "C) 92.49",
960
+ "D) 87.10"
961
  ],
962
  "answer_letter": "B",
963
+ "answer_raw": "89.79",
964
  "unit": "index",
965
  "condition": "forecast",
966
  "year": 1999
967
+ },
968
+ {
969
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19991115",
970
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
971
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
972
+ "indicator": "DCOILBRENTEU",
973
+ "transform": "level",
974
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
975
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
976
+ "question": "What will the Brent Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) $30.24/bbl\nB) $21.62/bbl\nC) $25.93/bbl\nD) $19.46/bbl",
977
+ "options": [
978
+ "A) $30.24/bbl",
979
+ "B) $21.62/bbl",
980
+ "C) $25.93/bbl",
981
+ "D) $19.46/bbl"
982
+ ],
983
+ "answer_letter": "C",
984
+ "answer_raw": "$25.93/bbl",
985
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
986
+ "condition": "forecast",
987
+ "year": 1999
988
+ },
989
+ {
990
+ "qid": "REC-DEXCHUS-level-19990215",
991
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
992
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
993
+ "indicator": "DEXCHUS",
994
+ "transform": "level",
995
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
996
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
997
+ "question": "What will the USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate (CNY per USD) be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 8.6926\nB) 8.0303\nC) 8.5271\nD) 8.2787",
998
+ "options": [
999
+ "A) 8.6926",
1000
+ "B) 8.0303",
1001
+ "C) 8.5271",
1002
+ "D) 8.2787"
1003
+ ],
1004
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1005
+ "answer_raw": "8.2787",
1006
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
1007
+ "condition": "forecast",
1008
+ "year": 1999
1009
+ },
1010
+ {
1011
+ "qid": "REC-DGS2-level-19991115",
1012
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1013
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1014
+ "indicator": "DGS2",
1015
+ "transform": "level",
1016
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
1017
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
1018
+ "question": "What will the US 2-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 5.79%\nB) 6.39%\nC) 5.99%\nD) 6.19%",
1019
+ "options": [
1020
+ "A) 5.79%",
1021
+ "B) 6.39%",
1022
+ "C) 5.99%",
1023
+ "D) 6.19%"
1024
+ ],
1025
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1026
+ "answer_raw": "5.79%",
1027
+ "unit": "%",
1028
+ "condition": "forecast",
1029
+ "year": 1999
1030
+ },
1031
+ {
1032
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990815",
1033
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1034
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1035
+ "indicator": "DCOILBRENTEU",
1036
+ "transform": "level",
1037
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1038
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
1039
+ "question": "What will the Brent Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) $25.26/bbl\nB) $20.68/bbl\nC) $16.10/bbl\nD) $22.21/bbl",
1040
+ "options": [
1041
+ "A) $25.26/bbl",
1042
+ "B) $20.68/bbl",
1043
+ "C) $16.10/bbl",
1044
+ "D) $22.21/bbl"
1045
+ ],
1046
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1047
+ "answer_raw": "$20.68/bbl",
1048
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
1049
+ "condition": "forecast",
1050
+ "year": 1999
1051
+ },
1052
+ {
1053
+ "qid": "REC-UMCSENT-level-19990801",
1054
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1055
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1056
+ "indicator": "UMCSENT",
1057
+ "transform": "level",
1058
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1059
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1060
+ "question": "What will the U Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 101.36\nB) 110.77\nC) 104.50\nD) 107.64",
1061
+ "options": [
1062
+ "A) 101.36",
1063
+ "B) 110.77",
1064
+ "C) 104.50",
1065
+ "D) 107.64"
1066
+ ],
1067
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1068
+ "answer_raw": "104.50",
1069
+ "unit": "index",
1070
+ "condition": "forecast",
1071
+ "year": 1999
1072
+ },
1073
+ {
1074
+ "qid": "REC-PAYEMS-level-19990801",
1075
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1076
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1077
+ "indicator": "PAYEMS",
1078
+ "transform": "level",
1079
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1080
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1081
+ "question": "What will the US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 132,163K\nB) 125,685K\nC) 136,051K\nD) 129,572K",
1082
+ "options": [
1083
+ "A) 132,163K",
1084
+ "B) 125,685K",
1085
+ "C) 136,051K",
1086
+ "D) 129,572K"
1087
+ ],
1088
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1089
+ "answer_raw": "129,572K",
1090
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
1091
+ "condition": "forecast",
1092
+ "year": 1999
1093
+ },
1094
+ {
1095
+ "qid": "REC-M2SL-level-19990801",
1096
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1097
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1098
+ "indicator": "M2SL",
1099
+ "transform": "level",
1100
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1101
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1102
+ "question": "What will the US M2 Money Supply (Billions USD) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $4,553B\nB) $4,735B\nC) $4,644B\nD) $4,416B",
1103
+ "options": [
1104
+ "A) $4,553B",
1105
+ "B) $4,735B",
1106
+ "C) $4,644B",
1107
+ "D) $4,416B"
1108
+ ],
1109
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1110
+ "answer_raw": "$4,553B",
1111
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1112
+ "condition": "forecast",
1113
+ "year": 1999
1114
+ },
1115
+ {
1116
+ "qid": "REC-PCEPI-level-19990801",
1117
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1118
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1119
+ "indicator": "PCEPI",
1120
+ "transform": "level",
1121
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1122
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1123
+ "question": "What will the US PCE Price Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 74.31\nB) 72.15\nC) 67.82\nD) 69.98",
1124
+ "options": [
1125
+ "A) 74.31",
1126
+ "B) 72.15",
1127
+ "C) 67.82",
1128
+ "D) 69.98"
1129
+ ],
1130
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1131
+ "answer_raw": "72.15",
1132
+ "unit": "index",
1133
+ "condition": "forecast",
1134
+ "year": 1999
1135
+ },
1136
+ {
1137
+ "qid": "REC-BOGMBASE-level-19990801",
1138
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1139
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1140
+ "indicator": "BOGMBASE",
1141
+ "transform": "level",
1142
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1143
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1144
+ "question": "What will the US Monetary Base (Millions USD) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $6,200,000M\nB) $4,300,000M\nC) $551M\nD) $2,400,000M",
1145
+ "options": [
1146
+ "A) $6,200,000M",
1147
+ "B) $4,300,000M",
1148
+ "C) $551M",
1149
+ "D) $2,400,000M"
1150
+ ],
1151
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1152
+ "answer_raw": "$551M",
1153
+ "unit": "usd_million",
1154
+ "condition": "forecast",
1155
+ "year": 1999
1156
+ },
1157
+ {
1158
+ "qid": "REC-DGORDER-level-19991101",
1159
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1160
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1161
+ "indicator": "DGORDER",
1162
+ "transform": "level",
1163
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1164
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1165
+ "question": "What will the US Durable Goods Orders (Millions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $192,195M\nB) $182,865M\nC) $195,927M\nD) $186,597M",
1166
+ "options": [
1167
+ "A) $192,195M",
1168
+ "B) $182,865M",
1169
+ "C) $195,927M",
1170
+ "D) $186,597M"
1171
+ ],
1172
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1173
+ "answer_raw": "$186,597M",
1174
+ "unit": "usd_million",
1175
+ "condition": "forecast",
1176
+ "year": 1999
1177
+ },
1178
+ {
1179
+ "qid": "REC-INDPRO-level-19991101",
1180
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1181
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1182
+ "indicator": "INDPRO",
1183
+ "transform": "level",
1184
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1185
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1186
+ "question": "What will the US Industrial Production Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 90.96\nB) 92.78\nC) 95.51\nD) 89.14",
1187
+ "options": [
1188
+ "A) 90.96",
1189
+ "B) 92.78",
1190
+ "C) 95.51",
1191
+ "D) 89.14"
1192
+ ],
1193
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1194
+ "answer_raw": "90.96",
1195
+ "unit": "index",
1196
+ "condition": "forecast",
1197
+ "year": 1999
1198
+ },
1199
+ {
1200
+ "qid": "REC-DGS10-level-19990815",
1201
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1202
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1203
+ "indicator": "DGS10",
1204
+ "transform": "level",
1205
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1206
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
1207
+ "question": "What will the US 10-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 6.39%\nB) 5.98%\nC) 5.77%\nD) 5.36%",
1208
+ "options": [
1209
+ "A) 6.39%",
1210
+ "B) 5.98%",
1211
+ "C) 5.77%",
1212
+ "D) 5.36%"
1213
+ ],
1214
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1215
+ "answer_raw": "5.98%",
1216
+ "unit": "%",
1217
+ "condition": "forecast",
1218
+ "year": 1999
1219
+ },
1220
+ {
1221
+ "qid": "REC-PPIACO-level-19990801",
1222
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1223
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1224
+ "indicator": "PPIACO",
1225
+ "transform": "level",
1226
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1227
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1228
+ "question": "What will the US PPI All Commodities Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 133.25\nB) 123.09\nC) 126.90\nD) 130.71",
1229
+ "options": [
1230
+ "A) 133.25",
1231
+ "B) 123.09",
1232
+ "C) 126.90",
1233
+ "D) 130.71"
1234
+ ],
1235
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1236
+ "answer_raw": "126.90",
1237
+ "unit": "index",
1238
+ "condition": "forecast",
1239
+ "year": 1999
1240
+ },
1241
+ {
1242
+ "qid": "REC-DEXJPUS-level-19990215",
1243
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1244
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1245
+ "indicator": "DEXJPUS",
1246
+ "transform": "level",
1247
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1248
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
1249
+ "question": "What will the USD/JPY Spot Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 114.5376\nB) 121.6224\nC) 110.9952\nD) 118.0800",
1250
+ "options": [
1251
+ "A) 114.5376",
1252
+ "B) 121.6224",
1253
+ "C) 110.9952",
1254
+ "D) 118.0800"
1255
+ ],
1256
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1257
+ "answer_raw": "118.0800",
1258
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
1259
+ "condition": "forecast",
1260
+ "year": 1999
1261
+ },
1262
+ {
1263
+ "qid": "REC-NASDAQCOM-level-19990515",
1264
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1265
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1266
+ "indicator": "NASDAQCOM",
1267
+ "transform": "level",
1268
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
1269
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
1270
+ "question": "What will the NASDAQ Composite Index be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 2,527.86\nB) 2,680.62\nC) 2,629.70\nD) 2,476.94",
1271
+ "options": [
1272
+ "A) 2,527.86",
1273
+ "B) 2,680.62",
1274
+ "C) 2,629.70",
1275
+ "D) 2,476.94"
1276
+ ],
1277
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1278
+ "answer_raw": "2,527.86",
1279
+ "unit": "index",
1280
+ "condition": "forecast",
1281
+ "year": 1999
1282
+ },
1283
+ {
1284
+ "qid": "REC-T10Y2Y-level-19990815",
1285
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1286
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1287
+ "indicator": "T10Y2Y",
1288
+ "transform": "level",
1289
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1290
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
1291
+ "question": "What will the US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) +0.31pp\nB) +0.23pp\nC) +0.15pp\nD) +0.08pp",
1292
+ "options": [
1293
+ "A) +0.31pp",
1294
+ "B) +0.23pp",
1295
+ "C) +0.15pp",
1296
+ "D) +0.08pp"
1297
+ ],
1298
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1299
+ "answer_raw": "+0.23pp",
1300
+ "unit": "pp",
1301
+ "condition": "forecast",
1302
+ "year": 1999
1303
+ },
1304
+ {
1305
+ "qid": "REC-DGS3MO-level-19990815",
1306
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1307
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1308
+ "indicator": "DGS3MO",
1309
+ "transform": "level",
1310
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1311
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
1312
+ "question": "What will the US 3-Month Treasury Yield be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 5.03%\nB) 4.65%\nC) 4.84%\nD) 4.52%",
1313
+ "options": [
1314
+ "A) 5.03%",
1315
+ "B) 4.65%",
1316
+ "C) 4.84%",
1317
+ "D) 4.52%"
1318
+ ],
1319
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1320
+ "answer_raw": "4.84%",
1321
+ "unit": "%",
1322
+ "condition": "forecast",
1323
+ "year": 1999
1324
+ },
1325
+ {
1326
+ "qid": "REC-TOTBKCR-level-19990815",
1327
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1328
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1329
+ "indicator": "TOTBKCR",
1330
+ "transform": "level",
1331
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1332
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-06",
1333
+ "question": "What will the US Total Bank Credit (Billions USD) be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-06.)\n\nA) $4,616B\nB) $4,224B\nC) $4,486B\nD) $4,355B",
1334
+ "options": [
1335
+ "A) $4,616B",
1336
+ "B) $4,224B",
1337
+ "C) $4,486B",
1338
+ "D) $4,355B"
1339
+ ],
1340
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1341
+ "answer_raw": "$4,355B",
1342
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1343
+ "condition": "forecast",
1344
+ "year": 1999
1345
+ },
1346
+ {
1347
+ "qid": "REC-PCE-level-19990801",
1348
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1349
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1350
+ "indicator": "PCE",
1351
+ "transform": "level",
1352
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1353
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1354
+ "question": "What will the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (Billions USD) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $6,332B\nB) $6,712B\nC) $6,142B\nD) $6,522B",
1355
+ "options": [
1356
+ "A) $6,332B",
1357
+ "B) $6,712B",
1358
+ "C) $6,142B",
1359
+ "D) $6,522B"
1360
+ ],
1361
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1362
+ "answer_raw": "$6,332B",
1363
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1364
+ "condition": "forecast",
1365
+ "year": 1999
1366
+ },
1367
+ {
1368
+ "qid": "REC-CPIAUCSL-level-19990801",
1369
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1370
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1371
+ "indicator": "CPIAUCSL",
1372
+ "transform": "level",
1373
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1374
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1375
+ "question": "What will the US CPI Index (1982-84=100) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 172.11\nB) 167.10\nC) 163.76\nD) 158.75",
1376
+ "options": [
1377
+ "A) 172.11",
1378
+ "B) 167.10",
1379
+ "C) 163.76",
1380
+ "D) 158.75"
1381
+ ],
1382
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1383
+ "answer_raw": "167.10",
1384
+ "unit": "index",
1385
+ "condition": "forecast",
1386
+ "year": 1999
1387
+ },
1388
+ {
1389
+ "qid": "REC-CPILFESL-level-19990801",
1390
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1391
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1392
+ "indicator": "CPILFESL",
1393
+ "transform": "level",
1394
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1395
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1396
+ "question": "What will the US Core CPI Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 182.62\nB) 186.17\nC) 177.30\nD) 171.98",
1397
+ "options": [
1398
+ "A) 182.62",
1399
+ "B) 186.17",
1400
+ "C) 177.30",
1401
+ "D) 171.98"
1402
+ ],
1403
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1404
+ "answer_raw": "177.30",
1405
+ "unit": "index",
1406
+ "condition": "forecast",
1407
+ "year": 1999
1408
+ },
1409
+ {
1410
+ "qid": "REC-PERMIT-level-19991101",
1411
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1412
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1413
+ "indicator": "PERMIT",
1414
+ "transform": "level",
1415
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1416
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1417
+ "question": "What will the US Building Permits (Thousands of units) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 1,809K\nB) 1,617K\nC) 1,727K\nD) 1,672K",
1418
+ "options": [
1419
+ "A) 1,809K",
1420
+ "B) 1,617K",
1421
+ "C) 1,727K",
1422
+ "D) 1,672K"
1423
+ ],
1424
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1425
+ "answer_raw": "1,672K",
1426
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
1427
+ "condition": "forecast",
1428
+ "year": 1999
1429
+ },
1430
+ {
1431
+ "qid": "REC-DCOILWTICO-level-19990215",
1432
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1433
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1434
+ "indicator": "DCOILWTICO",
1435
+ "transform": "level",
1436
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1437
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
1438
+ "question": "What will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) $11.38/bbl\nB) $10.32/bbl\nC) $10.74/bbl\nD) $12.02/bbl",
1439
+ "options": [
1440
+ "A) $11.38/bbl",
1441
+ "B) $10.32/bbl",
1442
+ "C) $10.74/bbl",
1443
+ "D) $12.02/bbl"
1444
+ ],
1445
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1446
+ "answer_raw": "$11.38/bbl",
1447
+ "unit": "usd_per_barrel",
1448
+ "condition": "forecast",
1449
+ "year": 1999
1450
+ },
1451
+ {
1452
+ "qid": "REC-PCEPI-level-19991101",
1453
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1454
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1455
+ "indicator": "PCEPI",
1456
+ "transform": "level",
1457
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1458
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1459
+ "question": "What will the US PCE Price Index be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 76.22\nB) 72.59\nC) 71.14\nD) 74.77",
1460
+ "options": [
1461
+ "A) 76.22",
1462
+ "B) 72.59",
1463
+ "C) 71.14",
1464
+ "D) 74.77"
1465
+ ],
1466
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1467
+ "answer_raw": "72.59",
1468
+ "unit": "index",
1469
+ "condition": "forecast",
1470
+ "year": 1999
1471
+ },
1472
+ {
1473
+ "qid": "REC-PAYEMS-level-19991101",
1474
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1475
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1476
+ "indicator": "PAYEMS",
1477
+ "transform": "level",
1478
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1479
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1480
+ "question": "What will the US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 135,685K\nB) 127,857K\nC) 130,466K\nD) 133,075K",
1481
+ "options": [
1482
+ "A) 135,685K",
1483
+ "B) 127,857K",
1484
+ "C) 130,466K",
1485
+ "D) 133,075K"
1486
+ ],
1487
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1488
+ "answer_raw": "130,466K",
1489
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
1490
+ "condition": "forecast",
1491
+ "year": 1999
1492
+ },
1493
+ {
1494
+ "qid": "REC-AHETPI-level-19991101",
1495
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1496
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1497
+ "indicator": "AHETPI",
1498
+ "transform": "level",
1499
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1500
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1501
+ "question": "What will the US Average Hourly Earnings be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $14.07/hr\nB) $14.62/hr\nC) $13.25/hr\nD) $13.66/hr",
1502
+ "options": [
1503
+ "A) $14.07/hr",
1504
+ "B) $14.62/hr",
1505
+ "C) $13.25/hr",
1506
+ "D) $13.66/hr"
1507
+ ],
1508
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1509
+ "answer_raw": "$13.66/hr",
1510
+ "unit": "usd_per_hour",
1511
+ "condition": "forecast",
1512
+ "year": 1999
1513
+ },
1514
+ {
1515
+ "qid": "REC-CIVPART-level-19991101",
1516
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1517
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1518
+ "indicator": "CIVPART",
1519
+ "transform": "level",
1520
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1521
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1522
+ "question": "What will the US Labor Force Participation Rate be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 67.10%\nB) 65.09%\nC) 63.07%\nD) 69.11%",
1523
+ "options": [
1524
+ "A) 67.10%",
1525
+ "B) 65.09%",
1526
+ "C) 63.07%",
1527
+ "D) 69.11%"
1528
+ ],
1529
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1530
+ "answer_raw": "67.10%",
1531
+ "unit": "%",
1532
+ "condition": "forecast",
1533
+ "year": 1999
1534
+ },
1535
+ {
1536
+ "qid": "REC-PCEPILFE-level-19990801",
1537
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1538
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1539
+ "indicator": "PCEPILFE",
1540
+ "transform": "level",
1541
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1542
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1543
+ "question": "What will the US Core PCE Price Index be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 72.17\nB) 73.64\nC) 75.11\nD) 77.32",
1544
+ "options": [
1545
+ "A) 72.17",
1546
+ "B) 73.64",
1547
+ "C) 75.11",
1548
+ "D) 77.32"
1549
+ ],
1550
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1551
+ "answer_raw": "73.64",
1552
+ "unit": "index",
1553
+ "condition": "forecast",
1554
+ "year": 1999
1555
+ },
1556
+ {
1557
+ "qid": "REC-ICSA-level-19990815",
1558
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1559
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1560
+ "indicator": "ICSA",
1561
+ "transform": "level",
1562
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
1563
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-06",
1564
+ "question": "What will the US Initial Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-06.)\n\nA) 285,082\nB) 312,754\nC) 292,000\nD) 305,836",
1565
+ "options": [
1566
+ "A) 285,082",
1567
+ "B) 312,754",
1568
+ "C) 292,000",
1569
+ "D) 305,836"
1570
+ ],
1571
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1572
+ "answer_raw": "292,000",
1573
+ "unit": "count",
1574
+ "condition": "forecast",
1575
+ "year": 1999
1576
+ },
1577
+ {
1578
+ "qid": "REC-VIXCLS-level-19991115",
1579
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1580
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1581
+ "indicator": "VIXCLS",
1582
+ "transform": "level",
1583
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
1584
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
1585
+ "question": "What will the CBOE VIX Index be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 25.60\nB) 24.17\nC) 27.04\nD) 22.74",
1586
+ "options": [
1587
+ "A) 25.60",
1588
+ "B) 24.17",
1589
+ "C) 27.04",
1590
+ "D) 22.74"
1591
+ ],
1592
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1593
+ "answer_raw": "22.74",
1594
+ "unit": "index",
1595
+ "condition": "forecast",
1596
+ "year": 1999
1597
+ },
1598
+ {
1599
+ "qid": "REC-PERMIT-level-19990801",
1600
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1601
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1602
+ "indicator": "PERMIT",
1603
+ "transform": "level",
1604
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1605
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1606
+ "question": "What will the US Building Permits (Thousands of units) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 1,671K\nB) 1,578K\nC) 1,741K\nD) 1,625K",
1607
+ "options": [
1608
+ "A) 1,671K",
1609
+ "B) 1,578K",
1610
+ "C) 1,741K",
1611
+ "D) 1,625K"
1612
+ ],
1613
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1614
+ "answer_raw": "1,671K",
1615
+ "unit": "thousand_units",
1616
+ "condition": "forecast",
1617
+ "year": 1999
1618
+ },
1619
+ {
1620
+ "qid": "REC-DEXJPUS-level-19991115",
1621
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1622
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1623
+ "indicator": "DEXJPUS",
1624
+ "transform": "level",
1625
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
1626
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
1627
+ "question": "What will the USD/JPY Spot Exchange Rate (JPY per USD) be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 110.8259\nB) 104.8800\nC) 101.9071\nD) 95.9612",
1628
+ "options": [
1629
+ "A) 110.8259",
1630
+ "B) 104.8800",
1631
+ "C) 101.9071",
1632
+ "D) 95.9612"
1633
+ ],
1634
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1635
+ "answer_raw": "104.8800",
1636
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
1637
+ "condition": "forecast",
1638
+ "year": 1999
1639
+ },
1640
+ {
1641
+ "qid": "REC-RSAFS-level-19991101",
1642
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1643
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1644
+ "indicator": "RSAFS",
1645
+ "transform": "level",
1646
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1647
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1648
+ "question": "What will the US Advance Retail Sales (Millions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $247,808M\nB) $252,970M\nC) $258,133M\nD) $265,877M",
1649
+ "options": [
1650
+ "A) $247,808M",
1651
+ "B) $252,970M",
1652
+ "C) $258,133M",
1653
+ "D) $265,877M"
1654
+ ],
1655
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1656
+ "answer_raw": "$258,133M",
1657
+ "unit": "usd_million",
1658
+ "condition": "forecast",
1659
+ "year": 1999
1660
+ },
1661
+ {
1662
+ "qid": "REC-TOTBKCR-level-19990515",
1663
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1664
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1665
+ "indicator": "TOTBKCR",
1666
+ "transform": "level",
1667
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
1668
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-06",
1669
+ "question": "What will the US Total Bank Credit (Billions USD) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-06.)\n\nA) $4,072B\nB) $4,201B\nC) $4,415B\nD) $4,286B",
1670
+ "options": [
1671
+ "A) $4,072B",
1672
+ "B) $4,201B",
1673
+ "C) $4,415B",
1674
+ "D) $4,286B"
1675
+ ],
1676
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1677
+ "answer_raw": "$4,286B",
1678
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1679
+ "condition": "forecast",
1680
+ "year": 1999
1681
+ },
1682
+ {
1683
+ "qid": "REC-CCSA-level-19990515",
1684
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1685
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1686
+ "indicator": "CCSA",
1687
+ "transform": "level",
1688
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
1689
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-06",
1690
+ "question": "What will the US Continued Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-06.)\n\nA) 2,232,000\nB) 2,343,600\nC) 2,187,360\nD) 2,298,960",
1691
+ "options": [
1692
+ "A) 2,232,000",
1693
+ "B) 2,343,600",
1694
+ "C) 2,187,360",
1695
+ "D) 2,298,960"
1696
+ ],
1697
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1698
+ "answer_raw": "2,232,000",
1699
+ "unit": "count",
1700
+ "condition": "forecast",
1701
+ "year": 1999
1702
+ },
1703
+ {
1704
+ "qid": "REC-CCSA-level-19991115",
1705
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1706
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1707
+ "indicator": "CCSA",
1708
+ "transform": "level",
1709
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
1710
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-06",
1711
+ "question": "What will the US Continued Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-06.)\n\nA) 2,173,634\nB) 2,035,000\nC) 1,951,820\nD) 2,090,454",
1712
+ "options": [
1713
+ "A) 2,173,634",
1714
+ "B) 2,035,000",
1715
+ "C) 1,951,820",
1716
+ "D) 2,090,454"
1717
+ ],
1718
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1719
+ "answer_raw": "2,035,000",
1720
+ "unit": "count",
1721
+ "condition": "forecast",
1722
+ "year": 1999
1723
+ },
1724
+ {
1725
+ "qid": "REC-DGS2-level-19990215",
1726
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1727
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1728
+ "indicator": "DGS2",
1729
+ "transform": "level",
1730
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1731
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
1732
+ "question": "What will the US 2-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 5.18%\nB) 4.83%\nC) 4.93%\nD) 5.03%",
1733
+ "options": [
1734
+ "A) 5.18%",
1735
+ "B) 4.83%",
1736
+ "C) 4.93%",
1737
+ "D) 5.03%"
1738
+ ],
1739
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1740
+ "answer_raw": "4.93%",
1741
+ "unit": "%",
1742
+ "condition": "forecast",
1743
+ "year": 1999
1744
+ },
1745
+ {
1746
+ "qid": "REC-DGS2-level-19990515",
1747
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1748
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1749
+ "indicator": "DGS2",
1750
+ "transform": "level",
1751
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
1752
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
1753
+ "question": "What will the US 2-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 5.11%\nB) 4.83%\nC) 5.49%\nD) 5.30%",
1754
+ "options": [
1755
+ "A) 5.11%",
1756
+ "B) 4.83%",
1757
+ "C) 5.49%",
1758
+ "D) 5.30%"
1759
+ ],
1760
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1761
+ "answer_raw": "5.30%",
1762
+ "unit": "%",
1763
+ "condition": "forecast",
1764
+ "year": 1999
1765
+ },
1766
+ {
1767
+ "qid": "REC-CCSA-level-19990215",
1768
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1769
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1770
+ "indicator": "CCSA",
1771
+ "transform": "level",
1772
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1773
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-06",
1774
+ "question": "What will the US Continued Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-06.)\n\nA) 2,253,000\nB) 2,298,060\nC) 2,365,650\nD) 2,185,410",
1775
+ "options": [
1776
+ "A) 2,253,000",
1777
+ "B) 2,298,060",
1778
+ "C) 2,365,650",
1779
+ "D) 2,185,410"
1780
+ ],
1781
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1782
+ "answer_raw": "2,253,000",
1783
+ "unit": "count",
1784
+ "condition": "forecast",
1785
+ "year": 1999
1786
+ },
1787
+ {
1788
+ "qid": "REC-DEXCHUS-level-19990515",
1789
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1790
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1791
+ "indicator": "DEXCHUS",
1792
+ "transform": "level",
1793
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
1794
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
1795
+ "question": "What will the USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate (CNY per USD) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 7.8645\nB) 8.2784\nC) 8.1128\nD) 8.4440",
1796
+ "options": [
1797
+ "A) 7.8645",
1798
+ "B) 8.2784",
1799
+ "C) 8.1128",
1800
+ "D) 8.4440"
1801
+ ],
1802
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1803
+ "answer_raw": "8.2784",
1804
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
1805
+ "condition": "forecast",
1806
+ "year": 1999
1807
+ },
1808
+ {
1809
+ "qid": "REC-ICSA-level-19990215",
1810
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1811
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1812
+ "indicator": "ICSA",
1813
+ "transform": "level",
1814
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1815
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-06",
1816
+ "question": "What will the US Initial Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-06.)\n\nA) 343,843\nB) 322,614\nC) 312,000\nD) 290,771",
1817
+ "options": [
1818
+ "A) 343,843",
1819
+ "B) 322,614",
1820
+ "C) 312,000",
1821
+ "D) 290,771"
1822
+ ],
1823
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1824
+ "answer_raw": "312,000",
1825
+ "unit": "count",
1826
+ "condition": "forecast",
1827
+ "year": 1999
1828
+ },
1829
+ {
1830
+ "qid": "REC-PCE-level-19991101",
1831
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1832
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1833
+ "indicator": "PCE",
1834
+ "transform": "level",
1835
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1836
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1837
+ "question": "What will the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (Billions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $6,255B\nB) $6,642B\nC) $6,771B\nD) $6,449B",
1838
+ "options": [
1839
+ "A) $6,255B",
1840
+ "B) $6,642B",
1841
+ "C) $6,771B",
1842
+ "D) $6,449B"
1843
+ ],
1844
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1845
+ "answer_raw": "$6,449B",
1846
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1847
+ "condition": "forecast",
1848
+ "year": 1999
1849
+ },
1850
+ {
1851
+ "qid": "REC-BOPGSTB-level-19990801",
1852
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1853
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1854
+ "indicator": "BOPGSTB",
1855
+ "transform": "level",
1856
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1857
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1858
+ "question": "What will the US Trade Balance (Millions USD, negative=deficit) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $-22,626M\nB) $-25,350M\nC) $-23,988M\nD) $-18,540M",
1859
+ "options": [
1860
+ "A) $-22,626M",
1861
+ "B) $-25,350M",
1862
+ "C) $-23,988M",
1863
+ "D) $-18,540M"
1864
+ ],
1865
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1866
+ "answer_raw": "$-22,626M",
1867
+ "unit": "usd_million",
1868
+ "condition": "forecast",
1869
+ "year": 1999
1870
+ },
1871
+ {
1872
+ "qid": "REC-DEXUSEU-level-19990215",
1873
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1874
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1875
+ "indicator": "DEXUSEU",
1876
+ "transform": "level",
1877
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
1878
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
1879
+ "question": "What will the EUR/USD Spot Exchange Rate (USD per EUR) be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 0.9939\nB) 1.1189\nC) 1.0689\nD) 1.1939",
1880
+ "options": [
1881
+ "A) 0.9939",
1882
+ "B) 1.1189",
1883
+ "C) 1.0689",
1884
+ "D) 1.1939"
1885
+ ],
1886
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1887
+ "answer_raw": "1.1189",
1888
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
1889
+ "condition": "forecast",
1890
+ "year": 1999
1891
+ },
1892
+ {
1893
+ "qid": "REC-DGS10-level-19991115",
1894
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1895
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1896
+ "indicator": "DGS10",
1897
+ "transform": "level",
1898
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
1899
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
1900
+ "question": "What will the US 10-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 6.16%\nB) 6.39%\nC) 5.94%\nD) 5.27%",
1901
+ "options": [
1902
+ "A) 6.16%",
1903
+ "B) 6.39%",
1904
+ "C) 5.94%",
1905
+ "D) 5.27%"
1906
+ ],
1907
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1908
+ "answer_raw": "5.94%",
1909
+ "unit": "%",
1910
+ "condition": "forecast",
1911
+ "year": 1999
1912
+ },
1913
+ {
1914
+ "qid": "REC-FEDFUNDS-level-19990801",
1915
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1916
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1917
+ "indicator": "FEDFUNDS",
1918
+ "transform": "level",
1919
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
1920
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
1921
+ "question": "What will the US Effective Federal Funds Rate be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) 4.91%\nB) 5.34%\nC) 5.23%\nD) 5.07%",
1922
+ "options": [
1923
+ "A) 4.91%",
1924
+ "B) 5.34%",
1925
+ "C) 5.23%",
1926
+ "D) 5.07%"
1927
+ ],
1928
+ "answer_letter": "D",
1929
+ "answer_raw": "5.07%",
1930
+ "unit": "%",
1931
+ "condition": "forecast",
1932
+ "year": 1999
1933
+ },
1934
+ {
1935
+ "qid": "REC-BOPGSTB-level-19991101",
1936
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1937
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1938
+ "indicator": "BOPGSTB",
1939
+ "transform": "level",
1940
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1941
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1942
+ "question": "What will the US Trade Balance (Millions USD, negative=deficit) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $-25,126M\nB) $-29,311M\nC) $-23,731M\nD) $-26,521M",
1943
+ "options": [
1944
+ "A) $-25,126M",
1945
+ "B) $-29,311M",
1946
+ "C) $-23,731M",
1947
+ "D) $-26,521M"
1948
+ ],
1949
+ "answer_letter": "A",
1950
+ "answer_raw": "$-25,126M",
1951
+ "unit": "usd_million",
1952
+ "condition": "forecast",
1953
+ "year": 1999
1954
+ },
1955
+ {
1956
+ "qid": "REC-M2SL-level-19991101",
1957
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1958
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1959
+ "indicator": "M2SL",
1960
+ "transform": "level",
1961
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1962
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1963
+ "question": "What will the US M2 Money Supply (Billions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $4,335B\nB) $4,612B\nC) $4,750B\nD) $4,473B",
1964
+ "options": [
1965
+ "A) $4,335B",
1966
+ "B) $4,612B",
1967
+ "C) $4,750B",
1968
+ "D) $4,473B"
1969
+ ],
1970
+ "answer_letter": "B",
1971
+ "answer_raw": "$4,612B",
1972
+ "unit": "usd_billion",
1973
+ "condition": "forecast",
1974
+ "year": 1999
1975
+ },
1976
+ {
1977
+ "qid": "REC-UNRATE-level-19991101",
1978
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
1979
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
1980
+ "indicator": "UNRATE",
1981
+ "transform": "level",
1982
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
1983
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
1984
+ "question": "What will the US Unemployment Rate be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 4.23%\nB) 3.93%\nC) 4.10%\nD) 4.02%",
1985
+ "options": [
1986
+ "A) 4.23%",
1987
+ "B) 3.93%",
1988
+ "C) 4.10%",
1989
+ "D) 4.02%"
1990
+ ],
1991
+ "answer_letter": "C",
1992
+ "answer_raw": "4.10%",
1993
+ "unit": "%",
1994
+ "condition": "forecast",
1995
+ "year": 1999
1996
+ },
1997
+ {
1998
+ "qid": "REC-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990515",
1999
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2000
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2001
+ "indicator": "MORTGAGE30US",
2002
+ "transform": "level",
2003
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
2004
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-06",
2005
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-06.)\n\nA) 7.46%\nB) 6.96%\nC) 7.24%\nD) 7.10%",
2006
+ "options": [
2007
+ "A) 7.46%",
2008
+ "B) 6.96%",
2009
+ "C) 7.24%",
2010
+ "D) 7.10%"
2011
+ ],
2012
+ "answer_letter": "D",
2013
+ "answer_raw": "7.10%",
2014
+ "unit": "%",
2015
+ "condition": "forecast",
2016
+ "year": 1999
2017
+ },
2018
+ {
2019
+ "qid": "REC-DGS5-level-19991115",
2020
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2021
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2022
+ "indicator": "DGS5",
2023
+ "transform": "level",
2024
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
2025
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
2026
+ "question": "What will the US 5-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 5.87%\nB) 5.64%\nC) 5.42%\nD) 6.55%",
2027
+ "options": [
2028
+ "A) 5.87%",
2029
+ "B) 5.64%",
2030
+ "C) 5.42%",
2031
+ "D) 6.55%"
2032
+ ],
2033
+ "answer_letter": "A",
2034
+ "answer_raw": "5.87%",
2035
+ "unit": "%",
2036
+ "condition": "forecast",
2037
+ "year": 1999
2038
+ },
2039
+ {
2040
+ "qid": "REC-TCU-level-19991101",
2041
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2042
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2043
+ "indicator": "TCU",
2044
+ "transform": "level",
2045
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
2046
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
2047
+ "question": "What will the US Capacity Utilization be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 80.55%\nB) 82.20%\nC) 78.09%\nD) 84.66%",
2048
+ "options": [
2049
+ "A) 80.55%",
2050
+ "B) 82.20%",
2051
+ "C) 78.09%",
2052
+ "D) 84.66%"
2053
+ ],
2054
+ "answer_letter": "B",
2055
+ "answer_raw": "82.20%",
2056
+ "unit": "%",
2057
+ "condition": "forecast",
2058
+ "year": 1999
2059
+ },
2060
+ {
2061
+ "qid": "REC-BOGMBASE-level-19991101",
2062
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2063
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2064
+ "indicator": "BOGMBASE",
2065
+ "transform": "level",
2066
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
2067
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
2068
+ "question": "What will the US Monetary Base (Millions USD) be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) $2,400,000M\nB) $4,300,000M\nC) $583M\nD) $6,200,000M",
2069
+ "options": [
2070
+ "A) $2,400,000M",
2071
+ "B) $4,300,000M",
2072
+ "C) $583M",
2073
+ "D) $6,200,000M"
2074
+ ],
2075
+ "answer_letter": "C",
2076
+ "answer_raw": "$583M",
2077
+ "unit": "usd_million",
2078
+ "condition": "forecast",
2079
+ "year": 1999
2080
+ },
2081
+ {
2082
+ "qid": "REC-DGORDER-level-19990801",
2083
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2084
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2085
+ "indicator": "DGORDER",
2086
+ "transform": "level",
2087
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
2088
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
2089
+ "question": "What will the US Durable Goods Orders (Millions USD) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $202,673M\nB) $195,096M\nC) $183,732M\nD) $189,414M",
2090
+ "options": [
2091
+ "A) $202,673M",
2092
+ "B) $195,096M",
2093
+ "C) $183,732M",
2094
+ "D) $189,414M"
2095
+ ],
2096
+ "answer_letter": "D",
2097
+ "answer_raw": "$189,414M",
2098
+ "unit": "usd_million",
2099
+ "condition": "forecast",
2100
+ "year": 1999
2101
+ },
2102
+ {
2103
+ "qid": "REC-RSAFS-level-19990801",
2104
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2105
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2106
+ "indicator": "RSAFS",
2107
+ "transform": "level",
2108
+ "target_period": "August 1999",
2109
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-07-01",
2110
+ "question": "What will the US Advance Retail Sales (Millions USD) be for August 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-07-01.)\n\nA) $253,844M\nB) $248,767M\nC) $241,152M\nD) $258,921M",
2111
+ "options": [
2112
+ "A) $253,844M",
2113
+ "B) $248,767M",
2114
+ "C) $241,152M",
2115
+ "D) $258,921M"
2116
+ ],
2117
+ "answer_letter": "A",
2118
+ "answer_raw": "$253,844M",
2119
+ "unit": "usd_million",
2120
+ "condition": "forecast",
2121
+ "year": 1999
2122
+ },
2123
+ {
2124
+ "qid": "REC-DGS5-level-19990515",
2125
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2126
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2127
+ "indicator": "DGS5",
2128
+ "transform": "level",
2129
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
2130
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
2131
+ "question": "What will the US 5-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 5.24%\nB) 5.48%\nC) 5.60%\nD) 5.36%",
2132
+ "options": [
2133
+ "A) 5.24%",
2134
+ "B) 5.48%",
2135
+ "C) 5.60%",
2136
+ "D) 5.36%"
2137
+ ],
2138
+ "answer_letter": "B",
2139
+ "answer_raw": "5.48%",
2140
+ "unit": "%",
2141
+ "condition": "forecast",
2142
+ "year": 1999
2143
+ },
2144
+ {
2145
+ "qid": "REC-T10Y2Y-level-19990515",
2146
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2147
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2148
+ "indicator": "T10Y2Y",
2149
+ "transform": "level",
2150
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
2151
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
2152
+ "question": "What will the US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) +0.38pp\nB) +0.26pp\nC) +0.32pp\nD) +0.16pp",
2153
+ "options": [
2154
+ "A) +0.38pp",
2155
+ "B) +0.26pp",
2156
+ "C) +0.32pp",
2157
+ "D) +0.16pp"
2158
+ ],
2159
+ "answer_letter": "C",
2160
+ "answer_raw": "+0.32pp",
2161
+ "unit": "pp",
2162
+ "condition": "forecast",
2163
+ "year": 1999
2164
+ },
2165
+ {
2166
+ "qid": "REC-VIXCLS-level-19990815",
2167
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2168
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2169
+ "indicator": "VIXCLS",
2170
+ "transform": "level",
2171
+ "target_period": "1999-08-15",
2172
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-08-08",
2173
+ "question": "What will the CBOE VIX Index be for 1999-08-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-08-08.)\n\nA) 19.98\nB) 27.71\nC) 18.43\nD) 23.07",
2174
+ "options": [
2175
+ "A) 19.98",
2176
+ "B) 27.71",
2177
+ "C) 18.43",
2178
+ "D) 23.07"
2179
+ ],
2180
+ "answer_letter": "D",
2181
+ "answer_raw": "23.07",
2182
+ "unit": "index",
2183
+ "condition": "forecast",
2184
+ "year": 1999
2185
+ },
2186
+ {
2187
+ "qid": "REC-DEXUSEU-level-19990515",
2188
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2189
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2190
+ "indicator": "DEXUSEU",
2191
+ "transform": "level",
2192
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
2193
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-08",
2194
+ "question": "What will the EUR/USD Spot Exchange Rate (USD per EUR) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-08.)\n\nA) 1.0650\nB) 0.9400\nC) 0.9900\nD) 1.1400",
2195
+ "options": [
2196
+ "A) 1.0650",
2197
+ "B) 0.9400",
2198
+ "C) 0.9900",
2199
+ "D) 1.1400"
2200
+ ],
2201
+ "answer_letter": "A",
2202
+ "answer_raw": "1.0650",
2203
+ "unit": "fx_rate",
2204
+ "condition": "forecast",
2205
+ "year": 1999
2206
+ },
2207
+ {
2208
+ "qid": "REC-DGS30-level-19990215",
2209
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2210
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2211
+ "indicator": "DGS30",
2212
+ "transform": "level",
2213
+ "target_period": "1999-02-15",
2214
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-02-08",
2215
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-02-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-02-08.)\n\nA) 5.51%\nB) 5.35%\nC) 5.19%\nD) 5.62%",
2216
+ "options": [
2217
+ "A) 5.51%",
2218
+ "B) 5.35%",
2219
+ "C) 5.19%",
2220
+ "D) 5.62%"
2221
+ ],
2222
+ "answer_letter": "B",
2223
+ "answer_raw": "5.35%",
2224
+ "unit": "%",
2225
+ "condition": "forecast",
2226
+ "year": 1999
2227
+ },
2228
+ {
2229
+ "qid": "REC-DGS30-level-19991115",
2230
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2231
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2232
+ "indicator": "DGS30",
2233
+ "transform": "level",
2234
+ "target_period": "1999-11-15",
2235
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-11-08",
2236
+ "question": "What will the US 30-Year Treasury Yield be for 1999-11-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-11-08.)\n\nA) 6.21%\nB) 6.55%\nC) 6.04%\nD) 5.53%",
2237
+ "options": [
2238
+ "A) 6.21%",
2239
+ "B) 6.55%",
2240
+ "C) 6.04%",
2241
+ "D) 5.53%"
2242
+ ],
2243
+ "answer_letter": "C",
2244
+ "answer_raw": "6.04%",
2245
+ "unit": "%",
2246
+ "condition": "forecast",
2247
+ "year": 1999
2248
+ },
2249
+ {
2250
+ "qid": "REC-ICSA-level-19990515",
2251
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2252
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2253
+ "indicator": "ICSA",
2254
+ "transform": "level",
2255
+ "target_period": "1999-05-15",
2256
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-05-06",
2257
+ "question": "What will the US Initial Jobless Claims (Number) be for 1999-05-15? (Use only information available on or before 1999-05-06.)\n\nA) 293,359\nB) 278,078\nC) 323,922\nD) 301,000",
2258
+ "options": [
2259
+ "A) 293,359",
2260
+ "B) 278,078",
2261
+ "C) 323,922",
2262
+ "D) 301,000"
2263
+ ],
2264
+ "answer_letter": "D",
2265
+ "answer_raw": "301,000",
2266
+ "unit": "count",
2267
+ "condition": "forecast",
2268
+ "year": 1999
2269
+ },
2270
+ {
2271
+ "qid": "REC-EMRATIO-level-19991101",
2272
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2273
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2274
+ "indicator": "EMRATIO",
2275
+ "transform": "level",
2276
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
2277
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
2278
+ "question": "What will the US Employment-Population Ratio be for November 1999? (Use only information available on or before 1999-10-01.)\n\nA) 64.40%\nB) 66.33%\nC) 62.47%\nD) 68.91%",
2279
+ "options": [
2280
+ "A) 64.40%",
2281
+ "B) 66.33%",
2282
+ "C) 62.47%",
2283
+ "D) 68.91%"
2284
+ ],
2285
+ "answer_letter": "A",
2286
+ "answer_raw": "64.40%",
2287
+ "unit": "%",
2288
+ "condition": "forecast",
2289
+ "year": 1999
2290
+ },
2291
+ {
2292
+ "qid": "REC-CPIAUCSL-level-19991101",
2293
+ "forecastType": "Recurrent",
2294
+ "subtype": "recurrent",
2295
+ "indicator": "CPIAUCSL",
2296
+ "transform": "level",
2297
+ "target_period": "November 1999",
2298
+ "info_cutoff": "1999-10-01",
2299
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2386
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2427
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