q112/random_k4/source.md

## Page 1

wart +S
ee per

The power of |
competitive

---

## Page 2

A special case: Competitive focus

Decisions dominated by the short-
term, impulsive self tend to reduce future
happiness

1. Excessive future discounting

2. Finding negative addictions

3. Avoiding positive addictions

But, for some, decision training is also important
because of the potential for competitive
mastery resulting from focus.

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## Page 3

Focus in the dual-self model

The rider can understand
the cumulative benefits
of focus over many years.

The elephant gets
bored with
repetition and
wants to move on
o the next new
experience.

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## Page 4

In standard consumption economics,
focusing is often bad
Variety is important because diminishing marginal

utility changes preferences. When enjoyment drops,
we should switch to another choice.

Hot Dogs_ | Utility from Each
Consumed Hot Dog

1 +10

nu BP W N
!
Re

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## Page 5

In competition, the cumulative effect
of focus may be good...

Differential outcome
Hot Dogs | Utility from

Diminishing marginal utility
Hot Dogs | Utility from

4 {Consumed | Each Hot Dog
4 0
2 -1
3 -2
ssomeas mesa 63 -50
Point where Joey 64 +5000
Chestnut ties
Kobayashi for the 65 +10000
or 66 +1

championship

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## Page 6

Focus, enjoyment, and outcomes

Practice makes Focused practice may
the game more result in increased
fun to play utility due to
because I know 1. Improved activity
what I am doing.“ | experience due to
y accumulated skill
(consumption
capital)
Improved activity
outcome due to
cumulative
experience (human
production capital)

---

## Page 8

Focus and differential outcomes

Does musical talent exist?

Does athletic talent exist?

“2m Obviously, Yes,
we Right?

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## Page 9

A contrary argument

A series of findings suggest that, assuming basic
dexterity or height, talent is simply the result of
accumulated hours of focused practice with
appropriate feedback.

So, seriously...

Does musical talent exist?
Does athletic talent exist?

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## Page 10

Talent on the violin

1. Professional
performers

2. Performance
track university
violin students
judged “best” by
professors

. Performance

track university
violin students

judged “good”

by professors

. Teacher track

violin students

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## Page 11

Talent on the violin

Best/Good:
University violin
Teaches students judged
Professionals the best talent or
good talent
Teachers:

Note early ' Teacher-track
divergence violin students
(not performers)
Professionals:
Professional
violinists

Estimated Accumulated
Practice (Hours)

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Age of the Violinists (Years)

Can you find the talented violinists with fewer hours of practice?

Ericsson (U. Colorado), Krampe, Tesche-Romer (Max Plank Institute - Berlin), 1993, The role of deliberate

practice in the acquisition of expert performance, Psychological Review, 100, p. 379

---

## Page 12

Adult piano players with 5-20+ years of
experience

Expert Level Ability |
V.
Amateur Level Ability

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## Page 13

Talent on the piano

A retrospective
study of expert-
level and amateur-
level adult piano
players with 5-20+
years of practice.

BESEEEEEE

Estimated Accumulated
Practice (Hours)

6 8

Age of the Pianists (Years)

Does “talent” seem to be related to hours of practice?

Ericsson (U. Colorado), Krampe, Tesche-Romer (Max Plank Institute - Berlin), 1993, The role of deliberate

practice in the acquisition of expert performance, Psychological Review, 100, p. 385

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## Page 14

Innate differences of ;
piano experts?

¢ There were no
differences in general
cognitive-motor skills.

¢ But, there were
differences in specific
abilities including single-
hand movements,
mirror-image movements
in both hands, and
different movements in
opposite hands.

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## Page 15

Innate differences of ;
piano experts?

Were these specific hand

Skills

a) An example of innate
talent?

b) Simply a reflection of
accumulated hours of
practice?

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## Page 16

Core physical ability differences reflect
accumulated practice

N N N
-_ nN w >

~
o

Log-Interstroke Interval (ms)

1.9 1,9

2.0 2.5 3.0 35 4.0 4.5 5.0 “20 25 3.0 38 40 45 50 “2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 45 5.0
Log-Accumulated Practice (Hours) — 9p. Accumulated Practice (Hours) Log-Accumulated Practice (Hours)
Single Hands Mirror Image Movements Different Movements

Experts are dark circles. Amateurs are empty circles.

Ericsson (U. Colorado), Krampe, Tesche-Romer (Max Plank Institute - Berlin), 1993, The role of deliberate

practice in the acquisition of expert performance, Psychological Review, 100, p. 385

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## Page 18

Expertise .
. —@®— INTERNATIONAL
In SOCCer Ba

—O— NATIONAL
—thk— PROVINCIAL

¢
3 groups, all = 10000
playing in é
Belgian Y  g900
soccer 5
leagues. ee ‘ann
All about 25 a
years old. E —
All started =
playing at =
about age 5 3 _
<

01234567 8 9 1011121314 15161718
eal The Oe of YEARS INTO CAREER
il api bel Ey Tt? Tat he it ot

precocity, and practice

in the development of 5 6 7 8 9 10111213 1415 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

soccer

expertise, Journal of CHRONOLOGICAL AGE
Sports | :

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## Page 19

A study of Differences

soccer between national-
players in level players and

the UK age local-level players
9-18. in playing OTHER

és SPORTS.

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## Page 20

A study isons \

players in. the UK |

Be 9- 18. ox ¥
sé

\"

As compared with local-level youth players, did

national-level youth players

A) Accumulate more hours in other sports

B) Accumulate fewer hours in other sports

C) Accumulate the same number of hours in
other sports

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## Page 21

FOCUS V. variety:
Accumulated hours playing other sports

Nationally competitive ‘ Local players
2500) ~@— Practice 2500) - —@- Practice

—8— Playful activities = Pay ful activities

r
2000 | te Match-play

¢ 20007 a Match-play

i

3 1500 “Est

=

| ©

B 1000 1000

5

2 SEB EBEBRBRRB RBBB
"$00 50)

U-9 U-10 U-l} U-12 U-13: U-14 U-IS U-17 U-18 U-9 U-l0 U-l! U-12 U-13 U-14 U-15 U-17 U-18

A study of soccer players in the UK age 9-18.

Ward, et al (2007) The road to excellence: deliberate practice and the development of expertise. High Ability

Studies, 18, 119-153.

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## Page 23

3 soccer activities: Individual practice, team
practice, playful activities

Did national-level youth players

a)

b)

c)
d)

e)

Get more hours in all three
activities

Get more hours in practice but
fewer hours in playful
activities

Get more hours only in playful
activities

Get more hours in team
practice and playful activities,
but not in individual practice
Get more hours in individual
practice and playful activities,
but not in team practice

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## Page 24

Deliberate practice v.

playing around in

soccer-related hours accumulated

Nationally competitive

ua
4000

Local players

b

4000 5 —@— Team practice

3500 + *<—6— individual practice: 3500 4 —@ individual practice
Seco tee nt OM, PIBSIEE, oes -
E3000 4i So Pinte: etme Ee |
= ?
= x59 = 2500 4 —t*&— Match-play
ey 250 2
= =
2 2000 a 2
= =
E 1500 E 15004
=< 1000 < 4
$00 5

0
U-9 U-10 U-11 U-12 U-135 U-14 U-15 U-17 U-18

Age group

U-17 U-18

T T
U-9 U-10 U-11 U-12 U-13 U-14 U-IS

Age group

A study of soccer players in the UK age 9-18.

Ward, et al (2007) The road to excellence: deliberate practice and the development of expertise. High Ability

Studies, 18, 119-153.

---

## Page 25

Variety/playing around v.
Focus/deliberate practice

Long-term The rider can understand the
cumulative benefits of deliberate

focused practice over many years.

The elephant likes
variety, but must
be forced into
focused repetition.
The elephant likes
to play around, but
is not fond of
deliberate practice.

---

## Page 26

The importance of feedback

“In the absence of adequate e
feedback, efficient learning

is impossible and

improvement only minimal a

subjects. Hence mere 7 /

repetition of an activity will — }

not automatically lead to Py. aay

. ” om 1b were
improvement... ge A .
Practice # Perfect

even for highly motivated
Perfect Practice = Perfect Ready for the Tour de France yet?

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## Page 27

Continued improvement requires
experience + expert feedback

Expert
Performance

Arrested
Development

Performance

Autonomous Everyday
Skills

Experience

“The key challenge for aspiring expert performers is to
avoid the arrested development associated with
automaticity and .... to support continued learning and
improvement, as shown in the upper arm of [the] Figure.”

Ericsson, K. A. (Florida State U.), 2004, Deliberate practice and the acquisition and maintenance of expert performance in

medicine and related disciplines. Academic Medicine, 79, S70-S81

---

## Page 28

Focus v. variety in medical skills

Doctors listened to recordings of heart sounds and murmurs of
healthy and sick patients to diagnose the difference. Who was
most accurate: new physicians completing residency
(Residents), general practitioner physicians (GP), or cardiologists
(Specialists) ?

a) Specialists 1st, GPs 2"¢, Residents 3'¢
b) Specialists 15t, Residents 2"¢, GPs 34
c) GPs 1%, Specialists 24, Residents 34
d) Residents 15t, Specialists 24, GPs 3'¢
Residents 15t, GPs 2", Specialists 3"¢.

Butterworth, J. (NYU), Reppert, E. (NYU), 1960, Auscultatory acumen in the general medical population. Journal of the American Medical
Association, 174, 32-34. Graph from Ericsson, K. A. (Florida State U.), 2004, Deliberate practice and the acquisition and maintenance of expert
performance in medicine and related disciplines. Academic Medicine, 79, S70-S81

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## Page 29

Focus v. variety in medical skills

Specialist

Resident

~~~. _ General Practitioners

Student Oe

0-9 years “On
10-20 years ~s Q

Performance

Over 20 years

Instruction and Experience

Figure 4. Two trends for development of medical performance as a function of ex-
+4 P P
perience and instruction.

Butterworth, J. (NYU), Reppert, E. (NYU), 1960, Auscultatory acumen in the general medical population. Journal of the American Medical

Association, 174, 32-34. Graph from Ericsson, K. A. (Florida State U.), 2004, Deliberate practice and the acquisition and maintenance of expert
performance in medicine and related disciplines. Academic Medicine, 79, S70-S81

---

## Page 30

A study of 108 college football players from
5 teams in the southeast.

Question: What
factors were
different between
starters and other
team members?

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## Page 31

Factors tested: Starters v. other players

Height in inches, weight in
pounds, back squat maximum,
bench press maximum, and
forty yard dash.

Age, small high school (3A or ga

below), state of competition, ; ro ————
mother’s education level, as ‘a wy
father’s education level, _f é = |
parental presence while living -

ie
he

ee
ee

at home, high school,GPA, and Pe ‘
SAT total. Ve

28 psychological questi ff
grouped into seven subse Fr \ a

(compares otherwise similar players)

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## Page 32

What do you think?
(Starters v. other players)

3 factors were significant: age, one psychological subscale, and...
Height in inches

weight in pounds

back squat maximum

bench press maximum

forty yard dash

small high school (3A or below)

state of competition

. mother’s education level a
father’s education level yee :
10. parental presence while living at home € My ea

11. high school GPA &
12. SAT total (/ f
‘e

WO ONDANAWNE

*stepwise discriminant analysis
(compares otherwise similar players)

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## Page 33

A study of college football players

Significant differences in starters: age, one psychological
subscale and...

not being from a small high school (3A or below).

“While smaller schools may be playing both sides of the ball,
or “Ironman Football,” larger school athletes may be able to
hone their abilities at one position... A large school athlete
may spend more time with coaches... This increases the
number of focused, directed practice hours an individual
obtains in a given season.”

Spieler, Czech, Joyner, Munkasy, Gentner & Long, 2007, Predicting Athletic Success:
Factors Contributing to the Success of NCAA Division | AA Collegiate Football Players.
Athletic insight: The online journal of sport psychology, 9(2)

---

## Page 34

Does “elephant” control predict
college football starting status?

Long-term

The significant psychological subscale was:

1. | maintain emotional control

no matter how things are
going for me.

. When things are going badly,

| tell myself to keep calm,
and this works for me.

. When | feel myself getting

too tense, | can quickly relax
my body and calm myself.

. |remain positive and

enthusiastic during
competition, no matter how

badly things are going.

---

## Page 35

Examples of hours accumulation

Who said that after he became a professional
football player, “The first 10 years, my wife and |
didn’t take a vacation” ?

---

## Page 36

Examples of hours accumulation

Jerry Rice

Career Records

* All-purpose yards
(23,546)

* Touchdowns (208)

*Receptions (1,549)

Playoff Records

*Yards receiving
(2,245)

* Touchdowns (22)

* ¢Receptions (151)
=) SuperBowl Records
© °All-purpose yards

(604)

§ *Touchdowns (8)
: *Yards receiving in a

single game (215)

---

## Page 37

Examples of hours accumulation

Sinclair Lewis — First
American to receive the
Nobel Prize in Literature

Booked to give a lecture
at Columbia University
on writing. He started
by asking, “How many
of you here are really
serious about being
writers?”

Most of the audience

raised their hands,
then...

---

## Page 38

Examples of hours accumulation

Lewis said, “Well, why
the hell aren’t you all
home writing?”
And he sat down.

---

## Page 39

Talent v. 10,000 hours

Research suggests that mastery \ ee

requires about 10 years or 10,000 Ven

hours of practice with appropriate
feedback in

music, mathematics, chess, compo
sing, tennis, swimming, running, so
ccer, and for

writers, poets, scientists, etc.

“a

Ericsson (U. Colorado), Krampe, Tesche-Romer (Max Plank Institute, Berlin), 1993, The role of deliberate

practice in the acquisition of expert performance, Psychological Review, 100, p. 363-406

---

## Page 40

What about young phenoms and child prodigies?

Bobby Fischer: International Chess Grand
Master at 15 =

Bryce Harper:

° 16 yr. old baseball phenom
* Longest distance home run
ever hit at Tropicana Field

*570 ft home run during a
high school game at age 15

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## Page 41

Bobby Fischer

International chess grand master at 15.

¢ Started playing at age 6

¢ At 7, began weekly tutoring by
president of Brooklyn chess club

¢ At 12, joined one of the strongest
chess clubs in the world and met
several times a week with chess
master Jack Collins with access to his
library of chess books.

Result: Mastery in 9 years instead of 10 (probably
resulting from intensity and hours of training).

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## Page 42

Bryce Harper

STANLEY CUP NBA FINALS
THEY WINGS CLOSE IN EXTRAORDINARY MAGIC
=,

°16 yr. old baseball phenom
°570 ft home run during a
high school game at age 15

*Longest distance home run
ever hit at Tropicana Field

BRYCE HARPER
iS THE MOST
; EXCITING PRODIGY
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/e60/news/story ?id=4388790 SINCE LEBRON
Start-3:16 By TOM VERDUCCI

Bryce Harper 1.wmv

---

## Page 43

Bryce Harper and hours accumulation

“Bryce Harper was playing T-ball at age [iain 2 paren
three against six-year-olds,... He has
played between 80 and 130 baseball
games a year each year for the past

seven years...

Bryce Harper is the product of a travel
baseball industry that nei

° . EXCITING PRODIGY
mushroomed, just as he himself was SINCE LEBRON
growing up, into big business. There j
seems no end to the tournaments, all-
star games, showcases, wood-bat

leagues, USA Baseball youth Seti Sead

‘i “" http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/
teams, "scout teams" sponsored by 260/news/story?id=4388790
major league clubs.” 3:16-4:29

-Quote from issue pictured at right Bryce Harper 2.wmv

: ,

---

## Page 44

Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart

"By the standards of mature
composers, Mozart's early works were
not that outstanding.... Of those
concertos that only contain music
original to Mozart, the earliest that is
now regarded as a masterwork (No. 9, K
271) was not composed until he was 21.
By that time Mozart had already been
composing concertos for ten years."

Michael Howe
Genius Explained

---

## Page 45

The Beatles

¢° 1960 went to Hamburg, Germany «
to play in strip clubs 8 hours a .
night, 7 days a week.

¢ The Hamburg trips yielded 270
nights of performing at 8
hours/night in only 1.5 years.

¢ By 1964 when the Beatles came

to the US, they had played at
least 1,200 gigs (~8,400 hours).

“They were no good onstage when they went
there and they were very good when they

came back... It was the making of them.” From
Shout! The Beatles in Their Generation (1981) by P. Norman.

---

## Page 46

Magic?

Even in mythic tales
of seemingly
overwhelming,
undeniable talent,
the 10-year or 10,000
hour guidelines still
seems to apply.

---

## Page 47

Summary: The power of intentional
focus V. the dissipation of variety

¢ The power to avoid negative addictions
¢ The power to pursue positive addictions
¢ The power to become the best

---

## Page 48

Slides by:

Russell James III, J.D., Ph.D., CFP®
Associate Professor

Division of Personal Financial Planning
Texas Tech University
russell.james@ttu.edu

Please use these slides!
If you think you might use anything here in a classroom,

joes CLICK. PERE: wieematnee

Thanks!

The outline for this behavioral economics series is at
http://www.slideshare.net/rnja8c/outline-for-behavioral-
economics-course-component