sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4b6dbcfbbce3eba59ff1990d3d6a6ed61492d376 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xd0009520c0341163e2c410fb9d08380485fdb137b4101031a18ed2e8b2755f33 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | 69,779,934 | 69,779,934 |
ad10c896e354c5c775e3c49908f4b2cdc6884ad9 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x4453ceb3a8e19b9b3bcdc77f13efe072e986738ea61854dfc94d17a9dedda0ec | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 49°F or higher on February 18? | 69,779,935 | 69,779,935 |
e749e8ad7a959f2348fdba0834d776b735acf221 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x66afe82f6bae9b895141d2c631542d8c37481291dc88b35543fab2d83060423c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4b and $4.5b on Feb 21? | 69,779,935 | 69,779,935 |
94ae3724a8b118eed41011df6c68200b339d7099 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x88079cc2484050798743f6ce42f1edbb1da44eb40a3c24f34b8f814342334282 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21? | 69,779,935 | 69,779,935 |
ffdee9d784d8c71df793f9f5e61a539f17f5fdf0 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x01b81d9e68993ba87cbd87e3d04ee2227ea4606df5c26d6ae5d24f9137148c90 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21? | 69,779,939 | 69,779,939 |
ece65568623ad6b837655484883059d5818a060d | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x16765372c41124c7f575678743c413378251c93d775338592fd0b55fbf3d73d7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 44°F and 45°F on January 26? | 69,779,939 | 69,779,939 |
fe3646f892e8feb0589978a1ab800de68bc8e406 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x4a27121348903a3967cad5949d75090d45ee3a7da46a19e098cc607d47a7fee8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the fight end in Round 8? | Event: paul-vs-tyson-rounds | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: sp... | yes | 1 | how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Lily Phillips has sex with between 500-749 men in a day? | 69,779,939 | 69,779,939 |
37e548010ce2168d6e07b57e2630d8a22a64c055 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xd88d7e52c787ac49b7ed9a996c6c91b81e296f694a37199107e14fd1b89f3b5c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Event: jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-who-will-win | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: spacex-starship-launch-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get... | yes | 1 | do-luigi-mangiones-parents-have-unitedhealthcare | Did Luigi Mangione's parents have UnitedHealthCare? | 69,779,939 | 69,779,939 |
58f58b04497776833016e4bf65f489e22479e774 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xe474135156eafd4d86632961219093d9a0b8d2df0c3d609f0b002881a11e8f00 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: SpaceX Starship launch today? | Event: spacex-starship-launch-tomorrow | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will MrBeast... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3.5b and $4b on Feb 21? | 69,779,940 | 69,779,940 |
682cd1f3e75966886fcb6326fbf0835533be0ae8 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xeb3e3109bcdcbf71a7773b4b4c7cdf666af9222930c809d3e704358f93d31a37 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 75m-100m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choic... | yes | 1 | will-sydney-sweeney-break-up-with-her-fianc-before-april | Will Sydney Sweeney break up with her fiancé before April? | 69,779,940 | 69,779,940 |
163cd05badbefbf4cbc7e0f667670e45dd52a281 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x0742e85e568235c6bbf715556bd9b26f32f76e5946f21a000d387c0e3b846e20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? | Event: mrbeast-x-ronaldo-video-views-on-day-1-nov-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | Is there between 147341858 and 146000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | 69,779,941 | 69,779,941 |
1a83c4e29648220c7b14a70a682c5be7efaea5ac | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x58ffac43d70b158d8bd28380545627a5363239bbcc0e0824b926fce74e806edd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4.5b and $5b on Feb 21? | 69,779,941 | 69,779,941 |
f99a9b5f153c7e9cf59a36a96a4e555ab4ec4ea8 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xb147d0a5da2f7058bbd57e88b6d05b8159ac067bff9290d7e8cee561037570f8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 7 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-7 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | 69,779,941 | 69,779,941 |
c2d7cbdfeb8eae732e68f7dafca1fd24cc548373 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xed33d018b8bf0cb34ada6ce45df74c528314b2ecc2575c2251336e679375434b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ding Liren win Game 11 of the World Chess Championship? | Event: world-chess-championship-game-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 17? | 69,779,941 | 69,779,941 |
e2c143b64357db272126ab2c7ab940f635886fd0 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xf7817fe043256573640a3576abab7e45a38663abf7fb28e7519a58675d79f2a5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Kamala Harris be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Artificia... | yes | 1 | libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3b and $3.5b on Feb 21? | 69,779,941 | 69,779,941 |
58e7ea66d9559406ac9a9e3772f7794f099df64b | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x87c1780f62641c32b84db4e6772d2a84d8c6ce6b6e7b4d6ca9560d79145abcae | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Joe Biden be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will... | yes | 1 | what-will-powell-say-during-march-press-conference-1 | Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting? | 69,779,942 | 69,779,942 |
e9978e560991a93430077e96c858c7c560f3ba11 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xc6e5bdcb99c95bc95151c97e99e5873449e6093b06f1b751f956b32130a1f81d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wi... | yes | 0.999943 | how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | Is there between 146000000 and 140000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | 69,779,942 | 69,779,942 |
f24b426b24e83973845a9fcb231a4158adc6f112 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x1147099f359c39e6b7232ed5389da96637d6fc2aa2b9bf6c1c3c9840149721ba | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? | Event: time-2024-person-of-the-year | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the high in Washington DC be between 26-27°F on January 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 17? | 69,779,943 | 69,779,943 |
24df5047009a800926af01c84b71ec3b70abdb1f | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xab799a59b1a49a4f24d80fce43f41db8fc56fbda3cbf8993bfc7b2047dd96906 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the high in Washington DC be between 26-27°F on January 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt36-on-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? | 69,779,943 | 69,779,943 |
e2eca157f5c108e2502e5363d94f62e2b5623003 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x2a0b89a791c8bc9bdd2b6584e9f03a0cbd340846bf063dd6f39299d6b482ab87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? | Event: dogecoin-above-0pt36-on-january-10 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the high in Washingto... | yes | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-23 | Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or below on April 23? | 70,912,166 | 70,912,166 |
4010b5a30d044b6310703259dbbb47e1756ee96e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x3330fd287e263a1238d495021a0322ab20c148dcdc80b0e18ce38633b1018170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the high in Washington DC be between 28-29°F on January 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-on-april-25 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 25? | 70,912,166 | 70,912,166 |
943cf35d9a67fcc3bac83b5c614964caba08c75c | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x64adc3c2287ec64397e3f1c487aa59963987bf2cc5b9d3d4845dcf7e2aa826cc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the high in Washington DC be between 28-29°F on January 20? | Event: highest-temperature-in-dc-on-inauguration-day | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump say "Hegseth" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Choic... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | 70,912,166 | 70,912,166 |
7485cd975731793febdaa152295d73b29e1b3d35 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x89936e03bd1d00ffe1764297f18298079f3465677af8ef38b1119b3b429b7469 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump say "Hegseth" during Fox News Oval Office interview? | Event: what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | 70,912,166 | 70,912,166 |
13645c8e58ff48a151ffd65f896754664fb43c0c | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x12919a3403e276321afe3e8b7a56c6228e55e635f458ce568d02850a46d35d82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1? | Event: how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-issue-on-day-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Que... | yes | 1 | fear-greed-index-says-extreme-fear-on-friday-april-18 | Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday? | 70,912,167 | 70,912,167 |
68b0c1d4deac04ae0a21a68dd16647908ad6320d | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x219c11d6f896e92af5f5947f8bebb41952cc55d9b764ee4a3171c4803203ec2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Event: fide-world-blitz-champion | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Southampton wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025... | yes | 1 | will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-canada-before-may | Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
943219566b66a9387ef0cc1ab8f6760935d2af36 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x25ccbe59d733a0b4c71857bd0bbeed94a45bc7c83920e8e910062afecf5699eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Southampton wins the Premier League? | Event: premier-league-winner-24-25 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Was the Cybertruck bo... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
0c8337538a2da79ab4dfcd21c23e4dc1c516bd01 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x778c304547cd1edfc3d4e16ae3e7ccbc19feec635724cd373e5acd8645856966 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Event: belarus-presidential-election | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? | Event: was-the-cybertruck-bombing-a-lone-wolf-attack | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
c460ce4acdcb26a7b4810883575b6ffbc95f1b12 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x897ddaa8a60ce55fe54d3ff7d6d44a4e090afd084c754adcf8d42a7b7783ae01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? | Event: was-the-cybertruck-bombing-a-lone-wolf-attack | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
... | yes | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
b764a24b31efafe5ff1b7daa2701399370e44149 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x9c0ea8931321e9a758662b0c9506338925e509dec142fb606a85aed75528cc97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2.5b and $3b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | will-xi-jinping-talk-to-trump-before-may | Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
1d1f0f35245de692609344abb800e13a08509c21 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xafa89f15f4478fe8de25d1b3cf6bfb730f1cbe71c49be0162d5ae49bfb6fc12d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2.5b and $3b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 20% and 50% on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
180717c49a44d3cd64dfe5433c190b5637eb27ee | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xb3d517559b545c25b445e274cb53d5f24f1759d804f9adeec89f26c02dcf44e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 49°F or higher on February 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-18 | Choic... | yes | 1 | will-trump-remove-10-blanket-tariff-in-april | Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
ae64b2b5baac77a8b4ec783482eb0c87433670cc | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xc112781d48e8ed118e2901d3fa46422371eeceace4b1c7dcbc076b11d51a8ac9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be 49°F or higher on February 18? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4b and $4.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choic... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
20d80b53555f4e41946722996a053c9fc3e72d73 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xcf5e0951ea80fb9872ad0a942382b0da29d1e74c931f669d576065c7f34be163 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4b and $4.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Conf... | yes | 0.999994 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30? | 70,978,012 | 70,978,012 |
d47d21c7fc872bbc75d41f25cc019c4d5abe954c | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xacc73c257249910e1e07a7d43692336df36116fdca673fc566b17b918293f2d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | who-will-leave-trump-administration-first | Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first? | 71,020,241 | 71,020,241 |
15b82c498cc4fa0485243a7e3ae77a2d59877a0e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xbf1e237a1e8cbf9c0b454dc984f5dc789f57f85b077a6a7383489b00b75dc4af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44°F and 45°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice:... | yes | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,301,405 | 71,301,405 |
6a155a253e394ff75a0e288c2052d2a47e4987f7 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x1273529f13b4d7e56a0cd3228e4482fa863b760452fc6bd3f6e1d908cf5e8c01 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 44°F and 45°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 500-749 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-... | yes | 1 | eurovision-winner-2025 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | 71,830,771 | 71,830,771 |
040c156649e1411cfd75c6071e3893477596b4d5 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x2d38300d59bd23140f83338808848561a036eedf35f49f191eb60becd35f080f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Lily Phillips has sex with between 500-749 men in a day? | Event: how-many-men-will-lily-phillips-have-sex-with-in-one-day | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Did Luigi Mangione's parents have UnitedHealthCare? | Event: do-luigi-mangiones-parents-have-unitedhealthcare | Choice: yes |... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-june-3-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 3 at 5 PM ET? | 72,396,589 | 72,396,589 |
bb86c5acba22334db583b2dd3d007ce35d0926c2 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x9b7176293bf3eeee0796786688a02d56a67a28dc6d9da9c0e904b891d82f895a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Did Luigi Mangione's parents have UnitedHealthCare? | Event: do-luigi-mangiones-parents-have-unitedhealthcare | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3.5b and $4b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | elon-out-of-trump-administration-before-july | Elon out of Trump administration before July? | 72,396,589 | 72,396,589 |
d9b6020b1758887c5ff2cb2eacf62509e302f016 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xc4f949aa2bdc1e20b760ae587591bd4ac5faab3214f862259905a473e78287bf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3.5b and $4b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sydney Sweeney break up with her fiancé before April? | Event: will-sydney-sweeney-break-up-with-her-fianc-before-april | Choice:... | no | 1 | elon-musk-net-worth-on-may-31 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31? | 72,396,589 | 72,396,589 |
512b69caeb3f1481bf64311397b10d44e77cb828 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xd92edf6778caf791807f0fca0db97aefd6e2bf2584215bf3e010dfe690c0f27e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sydney Sweeney break up with her fiancé before April? | Event: will-sydney-sweeney-break-up-with-her-fianc-before-april | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Is there between 147341858 and 146000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | Event: how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | C... | yes | 1 | 4chan-confirmed-fed-operation | 4chan confirmed Fed operation? | 72,396,589 | 72,396,589 |
b8767357ba1c7cc92b489ab55c42f32d5753f2f9 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xf65c98f77bd31ecc8f0ef30bafc83d5fa9be0175fbe45b21cab0e4c3e675539f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Is there between 147341858 and 146000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | Event: how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4.5b and $5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes ... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? | 72,396,589 | 72,396,589 |
da443532a239b176f40343194dfc71e0057059a8 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x276adbde76c04b83add5a6af0fafd75a0bf0724f18bce1ab113c27ef256deaca | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4.5b and $5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 |... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on May 31? | 72,396,592 | 72,396,592 |
6e31b28c26597e16596f0f08506d49bfe1167214 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x6fb72e3803753aeef55c265a65182447b1f8cebdc4d0f898aa53d4961a8f6df0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-jan-26-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-1... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,712,835 | 72,712,835 |
9fd96077f8b340cf4bd26967ea5f1600e9f6fb61 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x70c31faba6fc478f8e5feb22f7a56315955a74fa7e995ff7483edf80ca616cc1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3b and $3.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Co... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-11-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 PM ET? | 72,712,835 | 72,712,835 |
b78fcf86c7763889205dd1f3f10e62b8a9b34ad1 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x3619f068f8c436835e108d1935ad71b2a4fd36e091d453278c787abc26293527 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3b and $3.5b on Feb 21? | Event: libra-market-cap-fdv-next-friday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-march-press-conference-1 | Choice: yes |... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? | 72,772,774 | 72,772,774 |
febd92e042a27e462eb1ce1b0aec8907918a32e2 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xb3d550101d0d1c0f722c3654e2f9b5b07a3fcbb7e1d4f9be5aaeef4e048635b6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting? | Event: what-will-powell-say-during-march-press-conference-1 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Is there between 146000000 and 140000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | Event: how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | Choice:... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-on-june-13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 13? | 72,772,774 | 72,772,774 |
afde1cab89cbfa5145a44782bf2e98be58a4a0e2 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x31b82efaf43ce6c5608dde944444b9b39f52450ef8aeb22807907af612de07d9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Is there between 146000000 and 140000000 Troy Ounces of Gold in Fort Knox? | Event: how-much-gold-is-there-in-fort-knox | Choice: yes | Confidence: 0.9999433216062656
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,922,840 | 72,922,840 |
a53ff9feeb1e26cbf503c0b624499631c2802378 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0xa882e8f48047f97d3b1f341c9c98e92c1b484b812bde299b96c0f69cfa5388c9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 17? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-feb-17 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? | Event: how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Choice: yes | Con... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-14-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104K on June 14 at 5 PM ET? | 72,922,840 | 72,922,840 |
b080878f9e50c4aea999fcd1348de77469b89b9a | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x023632ad138c540b67abe20149c4434a77f0b087c6ed3ad0edf59d9c6518e73a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? | Event: how-long-will-trumps-state-of-the-union-be | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or below on April 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-23 | Choice: yes | Confid... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $106K on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 73,288,280 | 73,288,280 |
de2c24a03556afb1c331af2f2708452308a8e414 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x2c1d3161a53cbd0677cbe0788bdd7b84de1b57214070fdb7e8b63e555b91130c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or below on April 23? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-april-23 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 25? | Event: ethereum-price-on-april-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3... | yes | 1 | ethereum-price-june-18-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 18 at 5 PM ET? | 73,288,280 | 73,288,280 |
21432164c2ee9908dae8de2a8d8b055ef2847843 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x23e730eca8e579958f37504f006dd5e02d5d2dd26225f75cde5d2e52be954f46 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 25? | Event: ethereum-price-on-april-25 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: W... | no | 1 | who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fed-chair-before-july | No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | 73,496,144 | 73,496,144 |
d0fd3d8f72948c54ef06bf5dcaedde84edc146a5 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x655e5ca101c466b6293aa15e06173b78b293221803d56e35551f708cd82eb352 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Fe... | yes | 0.9431 | will-zelenskyy-wear-a-suit-before-july | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? | 73,705,905 | 73,705,905 |
adf23aa8a01e00dc6750a5d28b9e69ade01d896b | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x7590f51f00a87c7bc60cf740f43b1ca4a97c5e9ad583cf4cf94379508d0a067b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 11? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-april-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday? | Event: fear-greed-index-says-extreme-fear-on-friday-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 0.000001 | andy-byron-out-as-astronomer-ceo-by-next-friday | Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | 74,081,823 | 74,081,823 |
38c8e640f1497d1d3ded08340a0eec83d5b8cc21 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x692b8170d243494b0c1409e5b592a45eac7e526963ab7d4b9e83c76751c014b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday? | Event: fear-greed-index-says-extreme-fear-on-friday-april-18 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? | Event: will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-canada-before-may | Choice: yes | Confidenc... | yes | 0.973146 | will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-canada-by | Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31? | 74,208,275 | 74,208,275 |
89a567de21d1b313b3868fbcf63fc80603845194 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x512718d1e86486239479452aecfcdbc89387f5d4ceb2182a290425f3b309ab20 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? | Event: will-trump-remove-blanket-tariff-on-canada-before-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: ... | yes | 1 | 50-copper-tariff-in-effect-by-august-1 | 50% copper tariff in effect by August 1? | 74,673,454 | 74,673,454 |
a757467d137819a35a1ed0cc7ad8b41c5e8a9b05 | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x946d022f895ebe0c1038dea58de3c92f75bc888b5c9ab8cd1a386224bae1a01d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confid... | no | 1 | will-trump-attend-hulk-hogans-funeral | Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral? | 74,948,157 | 74,948,157 |
b5cdbeb8a4b85641cb22fe9fdd596c3662eee62e | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x57ee125c6f5b57b1b0c537289443d791a604e2c9e8d2a7a37d626cb4118c92e4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30? | Event: us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confiden... | yes | 1 | us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15 | Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15? | 75,251,084 | 75,251,084 |
23657e1789d96b4f1e3016fde282652c8d53929c | 0x06ecb7e739f5455922ce57e83284f132c7f0f845 | 0x5f5a2280846b6aee296f1c9d709e00c305196a91781b9ff2182d930d8a7562cf | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30? | Event: elon-musk-net-worth-on-april-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? | Event: will-xi-jinping-talk-to-trump-before-may | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Wil... | yes | 1 | how-long-will-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-shake-hands-for | Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more? | 75,252,296 | 75,252,296 |
845ebbd73986b6c0aa786e95ecd0cb2b0335382e | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xcdd2e757b74d058e2bfad8ede82a75d278f78adf43126cba3450071d19aa924b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15?
Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | 67,997,992 | 67,997,992 |
41b64d1ad2e38d195e58fa96b8a436644db179fb | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x4408af6aaac9536da338809fcb1f13f959a0982164afb0c156cd0f3c2217c15a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19?
Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19
Predict... | no | 1 | what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | 68,219,331 | 68,219,331 |
e5b4050eba630403ba74d2f21c29f9f6436e7174 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x7f824f822ec9383c092c0ef30de86ff168aafdaa282a6f79d9421b71818566c6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-kash-patel-as-director-of-the-fbi | Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director? | 68,219,335 | 68,219,335 |
a92df3b9d15950962997e0f9c345451abe5a1bd7 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x68cdc6ecb472e3e30dce16699e4f9dacfc584f5f5e0102de8aa034594b134b66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-bre-2025-02-21 | Will Brentford win on 2025-02-21? | 68,219,364 | 68,219,364 |
f3da545fffb37c6ab4fcb23f87858010377dead8 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xd809047dfee4314ab16d95cb3d4bd2f986dd70a1067f57dcaaf77e86610eed52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | trump-538-approval-rating-on-feb-14 | Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.9% on February 14? | 68,219,373 | 68,219,373 |
fc641ba61d2b3131cad67e9d23020583cec5bcb9 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x4411688b128d9652bbad80a99ad722b63e47b4cabd0982f42510971744587c06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | which-party-wins-2nd-most-seats-in-german-election | Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election? | 68,316,292 | 68,316,292 |
0e9be1656725fb1dc0018ba1c3bd0ddbbe24ad9e | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xedecff2ebfe6cd86e6f78da7ad773a86f5d31b8d9a449a5a660aaa3637c35ba5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,502,274 | 68,502,274 |
09ef5db0c5bff2ecfac31055c45ccfd68ca4b0c2 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x268a8c551c574d999d37fee1530820558a22a6a58a8bb7b4b69d3ccfb2bb07c7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | which-company-has-best-ai-model-on-february-28 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? | 68,502,278 | 68,502,278 |
cf44c2b87d689e154427cb463fd462408013216b | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xd9157cace279a5dcf950378a833555e06427d23196c94e552f37f8efba65fb1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-february | Will XRP reach $4.00 by February 28 2025? | 68,517,340 | 68,517,340 |
ef85a20382db1616742855a63a3f924bf8bfa284 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x4b5291e1875f850ac01ec3f28cd882ae0b3abba6e7f7c2319a437e956021424c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | will-elon-be-worth-500b-before-march | Will Elon be worth $500b before March? | 68,517,362 | 68,517,362 |
fe1f1b286f547bf85813f5883318d525985ebb82 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x9f11ec72e7b55d357869f19836802952e896052c7d6e1408e994b5cfd0a53468 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | february-inflation-annual | Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February? | 68,964,653 | 68,964,653 |
6003414df8fdcef0e1a2a2bdde5827e4e51f74d0 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xb00aab48f34c40b2e127a4f7bd71fd6bd4047e33749efc3a4c70349557a266b2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | champions-league-winner-2025 | Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? | 68,982,706 | 68,982,706 |
c057817351cda9d32a0c1cb28a73cffaf72cdbc9 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xe513c27e266f08d04a617053118f20b8311c898791b96beeac4aab6a1da08ded | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | cducsu-of-vote-in-german-election | Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | 69,090,564 | 69,090,564 |
fad842ef64b1259ecb1865466c46d844b3998e52 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x098ba6c98cd7c4bb676880a52e22879c5934804bdacb870e3bcd3c58cc8b4b1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | 2025-ncaa-tournament-winner | Will Louisville win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | 69,311,832 | 69,311,832 |
a047b472b04f1f81cfb817e3041dd67157dc78d2 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x07f78b5a91e95475eaf5cacd2da5d1588bb8d5e532841ce2fb88498d4078f5ac | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | fa-cup-champion | Will Fulham win the 2024-25 FA Cup? | 69,660,496 | 69,660,496 |
941ed89a49c7f09871781bf0264207c1d97cbf8a | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x3b95a80ef1cb930c0c348ab83cd643ef3f97eb43d359af9ef0a30f0bf32b8351 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | yes | 1 | which-teams-will-make-the-nba-playoffs | Will the Houston Rockets make the NBA Playoffs? | 69,906,985 | 69,906,985 |
c6e203a894931f581bbce8424b25e0ff29ebd888 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x310e41ab42ce8fff0859a5a8aa67c550af6b08c6170007925869c7f126386823 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight KSI next? | 70,475,004 | 70,475,004 |
f20de1b28df11c2f5d7d9742e16c06696392b7c1 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x05a2bacee6fc2fae6df409c00851c1177ca0f99a947be178e04b842385e50888 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Logan Paul next? | 70,475,007 | 70,475,007 |
5de2144f09f764e254276538875aa8e40260df03 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x006d76dff23c4c1a2ea4bf4d4a111290740b3fc154ca4d19fa54552f26049f86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | who-will-jake-paul-fight-next | Will Jake Paul fight Speed next? | 70,475,010 | 70,475,010 |
59a9966a3e7f06424f9edd7716ad85563b9f3081 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0x72efb48713659ed42dd898083ce64df902916678862e720ef4285be5f0f9c187 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | nba-most-improved-player | Will Norman Powell win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | 70,615,213 | 70,615,213 |
ee5a2566dd8ecad1a7b455e5bb45e80594af81e0 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xe99cff3cb3b148eae70e2ae5cbc2bb22b94282fbb7e15199ce831c3f1fa1dc16 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | nba-6th-man-of-the-year | Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? | 70,670,628 | 70,670,628 |
a629d2b888ed749ac03a2154e1dc8d58f8a20efd | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xfe9bdb0f1076b96248f6d1700e569a9ae97512a815c8d913a9617f937c14c353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | nba-defensive-player-of-the-year | Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | 70,724,160 | 70,724,160 |
1f13bed0dd646c73737ffc1248916e0e9d2618f3 | 0x06f7799e58d913822e183088014c41e81a1b9c2f | 0xcd4bad1eafe59039ae16216a5e38e45d56c66f5911fedfb1363908188362edf5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 15? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-february-15 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Apple launch an iPhone SE on February 19? | Event: what-product-will-apple-launch-on-february-19 | Choice: no | Conf... | no | 1 | who-will-make-the-first-pick-of-the-20-25-nfl-draft | Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | 70,724,163 | 70,724,163 |
64ca1067699a0e9080ab9b3153f0f59848eaa86e | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x2581b82fb51f4a84abee8d08302fc49c6390afcbd708777fd6554fcc07fd2b35 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?
Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | 66,496,790 | 66,496,790 |
7b00eceada2c5a5514af10b6446d9ceccff453f4 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025
Predict the user's choice and confide... | no | 1 | fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | 67,484,450 | 67,484,450 |
6af715dc00a493e829bd0236437908b4d537a1fa | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Qu... | no | 1 | germany-parliamentary-election | Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | 68,392,687 | 68,392,687 |
d6e3b7e198c97d71aade3b154ad67382a103a9c6 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x60156f439be0c865601a1d1f57a4839bc043525b9a01b2fc254835faacff2526 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | yes | 1 | bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | 73,320,594 | 73,320,594 |
becfcb2f54eaa4a537cfc2e66807cc75cb33fd36 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x0a8a09d17a349418d3e4d0ae69af613132280945b8169e1dab95d9736014f472 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | up | 0.070113 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | 73,373,199 | 73,374,081 |
6f672908a233b7589766acd02762ea1af26ebd3a | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1dd7ad140a0527401908a9af6f277ea8f5c54e3e16cdb974a5ae94f2a8df0002 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0.000555 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | 73,403,601 | 73,403,601 |
86a32782744a46dbe5642e606d97a6ad3294e42d | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x67bbc7891d7ce1f51aec384cd6bc7a46279d203e2e4fc87d12ae560f46b71b5b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | 73,403,678 | 73,403,678 |
d5924d0d02660ed70537a8d6813d3e58ce6724b8 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x96684384147f25e69ff00257073105e8627f3d36d44726f8138b38f7c21e001d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | 73,403,678 | 73,403,678 |
6bff8b55790d7b76bda8eecb351c9f71540da121 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1bc29a516109ba7f82feaf26edece4fed97e38e7d643bdae0e4f3ac6f2a81340 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | 73,405,285 | 73,405,285 |
771906ecef13b3e76a6234f93536e6c6b043ebb4 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xa5cfd0623789316350ed97fcece163a14efa91315f6abf9a94164cb88f42ba52 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | 73,405,736 | 73,405,736 |
a2746e24c6d1a28c4f2b92876771fc6bbefab0c6 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xdf98ad9fbe8a07756db4c96d9c6e173ac3fbb700cde733efd8307f297bb93198 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | 73,406,021 | 73,406,021 |
18fd0342325c9bc22a7fc7e6d9d5969aec77b24d | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x33c1925404d1227acb4ac50f8210d7e8f974cd3ef4b569d9fd2c6ab96d7d0f1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | 73,406,484 | 73,406,484 |
e8fbdf4a4772fcd555040404f5b69c78c08180b5 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x7a67cbadfb1591849488e638895e5969564858cc274665b2e3b48a03f54017d8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | 73,407,770 | 73,407,770 |
218ce6083cc5b9b1a3d03bceba006a69c67f116f | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x0858929dd19ab22c51a233cfa8241e4441e10ef66808b1e84b822f2912d6e7e3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | 73,410,217 | 73,410,217 |
73b51cf4f07a42ba3ca119875215c2d8b8e1bbc0 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x5ce35610aaf45514d870bd86ebca565319fb1dccf5dfdeb445b31f34a9b8d42b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | up | 0.001001 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | 73,410,702 | 73,410,702 |
ad616da35f8e331cb977d686bab6c5d953f6f1dc | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb66b6120f1bd998e8d66be5c0d3af7f0db58175de92a29a50d14611fc5032dd4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | 73,410,702 | 73,410,702 |
334b4ce0f2c8e93edef0a77f6ab7fb1cbdc82d0a | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x839f3dcd97312524bfd015d56eac5071c27c7e3e791897d0dd564abf3f9477c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | 73,412,144 | 73,412,144 |
f11a1f6696fd99e8cbc83bcc3be481ceb976e4a7 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xc6b6ddb2e0e75df8251242eb15d0462c3ab1bf14b8b6c899a2e7ed03b3992cf0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | up | 0.000334 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | 73,412,144 | 73,412,144 |
e4ca11b82ca14a0ca0ec897479665db04717b881 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x641b3d7b21bf67446d6186353a5a58f4f5cf8f5872998df9649e0d382a81ab30 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | 73,412,465 | 73,412,465 |
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