sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3818b8bb927bbfc08efd20dbdb235240b482d7c4 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1fdc3381b5a38ff97fb9f8d627c61edda62d9546a62292495ec514b63bb93c54 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 4PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
c68aabe9ae0b44e93f5b4bb478aae15d94cbd828 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x50d212e1e3a6b64ce500dec7ac77806523355ec9c9bfbf3fe44a272df55a4f4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
0b0adf92ff6e1290e97d08468e8f71a3a65b62c2 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x5c0e196a82b7872783d046d49bff0a48f505cd3eba0fe67e4078cf44ac1cc51d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
e6dcb2809b752c037f61cb58b84089b0c5b0f521 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xbc23648a98bf823ed9c3c1dc2cc41d1b2d12f13ecd39b0731f90a92a2598aa8d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
ea08c07bdc25906d9475b4304243a7c5e69a162a | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xe3239dc09c2dc22d7fb3da92804c6cf1c58eb8c100211e52356b7b05950fe331 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
a640992fb480d15e0d3e62f2a94b92a2e0a311ce | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xed1b7a19043e4a2b75fdc46b3feefb3bf52cd86d7caf43a472d632d9e6af4afb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
d1a4ae2a86489323cd2c1d1f3bd1bbfbcafbdba8 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xfe0c9eaea31dbbbfc0f25fb95600d9e2f1c32b2a95c1d8cd6a2c49109fe517d4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | 73,419,266 | 73,419,266 |
69ed325cdd9e429765b7cc3991038c60c1395b7d | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x07dffea42b7d15048483627b99a4ca6e964224725a6768022cc4de2ac4cdee91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
96ad3107b32cbf3f7cfd2a97bbb67a14e21f6b5c | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x086704ed8129d88bd08dd8576ce8288d0f11c016648408faeb5524124cdc0868 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | XRP Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
8652eb59a943bad16763392b87be0263a3ce7a54 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x113a5eab42bd7979f253daad32a48f70c5ecbeb4dde9b75278b4a0d1cb4820c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
20da343e4a7febfb4ce03b010a6fda4a09dfff89 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1fed25c0a32bd5caa08d39e29b51203dc7c62957a6d9d78a59c0c072f53b7a8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
fc86cbc22ae41d4487a3c7671dede6a601c0de7c | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x2c90ab098460051967395656319bd0bb5c255f2a8de0fd87626c8d34c60bfe60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-january-3-january-10 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
245ebc78b72bb88392dfbd51a735701f99b82abe | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x88ac3001a07cc13fbbf19513ef7a896b932938acc137da479a08d3d33cbeadf4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Event: fed-interest-rates-january-2025 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
5e6b1c3db286cefb2d4fe2c426a7d90f806edd49 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xab6ae03448fbe9996c628ba392f755bdc1c883f4d0fa895c4a8d55d9001e2305 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Event: germany-parliamentary-election | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Qu... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
a8a63a8eb96c32a8f418266518ac85bfa92e59fa | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb61587b4798d252b7e022201bc187bf025190e43e68e10978a7a0688eb221ed0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on June 27 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-june-27-5pm-et | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07011300493225947
3. Quest... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
a5e50ae02be4bc9ad70f42e870ee8de4fb210bed | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xca93be47516f122b8e7205643e58ed9f27ce5d91f07e3d43a8ffb4c401c0ec4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-29-2pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.07011300493225947
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005550917020686711
3. Question: Solana Up... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
132b8d035c56f1734248afc3dbf5de130ca61b86 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xfd86785c4236eca41dd944c64c0ef40844280f08ce27cfd6e967efaebb52e407 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0005550917020686711
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - Jun... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | 73,435,060 | 73,435,060 |
e091a7153a0b40780ae3e28fe27c9b1f67aef018 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x738bf902942dfaf0f5a8eace4f05bdfa8c0ae3fe76f899feb5ec888ead06065b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event:... | up | 0.000334 | xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9pm-et | XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9PM ET | 73,435,061 | 73,435,061 |
8896b04a350c9634058b4b3cc6adbc4585ae32fe | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xa4809651f80c2fba5e8f36e4c956da53fd43f0fe81335f80d1d497eaea5f3bb1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: so... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | 73,435,061 | 73,435,061 |
7ceb0ffde480c9546875b90e922f711200f83f3d | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x5af451d74ac81e6b9f063b40d83a843535c43eebe77140b44b993f720d648f6b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: bitco... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | 73,438,050 | 73,438,050 |
f4be284550cafb0bafd2a2e0c18b7863a50f1f39 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb53c54bce5baca588d2d12b7507262e8669f9e430bdf4545ed12e4a735e9c291 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Eve... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | 73,438,050 | 73,438,050 |
f24152f20cd9fbab234f3b55ac1f6bd00dff4c36 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb77e0974442ad2b49cf7328ed7e26c02641ead436e2f2be517f0f545ca5f8886 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | 73,438,050 | 73,438,050 |
24bd8ccde96a6252019c432e440a77b9c633a0c5 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x8c7559242aac4ea4b36d6647c89cf7427a5cf70d293e6ee4eeb8c2c216e3a974 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET ... | up | 0.2 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-4am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | 73,439,727 | 73,439,727 |
f630cabbaa045026a6e603e8fff677e030c63f1e | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xcd09e74afac920dae82d051267cff9345bf0c078de859fbae77995ddb2e7f113 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-9am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-4am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 4AM ET | 73,439,727 | 73,439,727 |
98e790bbe3fb56f79aab4ea8198084aa63064044 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xcbba12a368ac85720ea570d471f8d0e71f4e3fbb8e4187957b7932ed623ce814 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.001001301601992473
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June ... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | 73,441,319 | 73,441,319 |
00161a59ca1130321570d4b500adf1fa18e68367 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x7d1065b412588a3d21573021c808e0760ad93c74d10fecb0535b610a349011f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.001001301601992473
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | 73,441,459 | 73,441,459 |
10e8df449fc5de95c94c1ef4db48b7919b1ff32a | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xf80e91663fbc5b18c29ac6d517afbe8fcad049eaf9a366be60c2e4ac08bd7c1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 11AM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-11am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Even... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-5am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 5AM ET | 73,441,953 | 73,441,953 |
a302a9f375e855aa794be0995513b816c641dedb | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x24bde705a112fa58aff670d90ddad9c8f4a9b7585b4a84c041aa25f6a18e6830 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003336112593549949
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - ... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | 73,446,734 | 73,446,734 |
b21870eba6388bdf3d42e784fccf9a51c9213706 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x3629dccd1218e0f5e9e620a24cfc4a5e61e229499e19a0db1f1f52e8a001df69 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003336112593549949
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - J... | down | 0.000461 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | 73,446,819 | 73,446,819 |
2a6a771036687de264ab99be06fe0e97933c6144 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xdbd91ac5bfba721fff70c8256640a51b659db5f0e57597b5732c7c2c1adc1952 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 12PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-12pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET ... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | 73,447,677 | 73,447,677 |
d5f054e4471bcd14fd40198c2717da9271274fe9 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x0cb5a8984c516fc6427cf8d531e7d52f5c065979adf20acfe95645f8f2f56b05 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 4PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-4pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | ... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-9am-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 9AM ET | 73,447,686 | 73,447,686 |
afb2a6692f55dc1de762073acb8392bebe682d51 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xd912b699a54cfcddc836ad29d25620845f6a641a4e5e3b17aff63504f583cc8b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Eve... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | 73,450,024 | 73,450,024 |
96014076981df795f566322233a3163ef001e6ee | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xc3b2381ac203ac877abbd480ed2d8846ffcf1d9030ccec24e8e4adfce66d7f72 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | 73,450,104 | 73,450,104 |
229b674694616ef1e73fbd7d54d23b9e4bcf1e07 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x4a5a9a26c22d0540918be77e268743d05c780932a56ef2e8b6aeb1f0c3a2abc2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-11am-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 11AM ET | 73,450,145 | 73,450,145 |
209b4741f233c9619b11dcecef70fa6ac5d50d0a | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xc057ec3dbdcdfaff0736d4d0c704815e34366256a05c7d13e484754597430d70 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | E... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | 73,451,840 | 73,451,840 |
1d0430e4408c022c8261fc94c64a207f20dc2694 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x180974284812aae47b4e4b8c39cebd3c07b6d4a9d6bdf1d7d621da41212a02c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-1pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | 73,452,213 | 73,452,213 |
d5820340454f684eabbfb50f780a0aaf7a1b7e65 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x456dd25835f5c1129db568465d6a4e60581d1158a16e25cdd22a120675e36a1d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 2PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-2pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-u... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-12pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 12PM ET | 73,452,365 | 73,452,629 |
14522cebb6f6857256def41be1b3f0fd680ebecb | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x42dad69fecaace58b1ec19f98c310fbd4c6c271f989ee3c954e680df5abd0e04 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or... | down | 0 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | 73,453,476 | 73,453,476 |
b7868a289c88c9c7b3f8fc0295a50a15be0aba5c | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb90fe106842762facfac69e5515aeb9e4020ac0cfa087aefbfab25282161c49e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: ethe... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | 73,453,476 | 73,453,476 |
737f06798dc4550c63962a78784f94d2dd052700 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x2231a63947a80237f23301058c48a3b47fd1c97c936760b781e8617dd9a1d99a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | E... | down | 0 | solana-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | Solana Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | 73,454,119 | 73,454,119 |
99eb9bbe7d53a1cc13bd2f7863d858ee25e6fa81 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xb27bcbf617590393825cbb533cedd03e90f8692f47b311c320c1c3f58ad79542 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET |... | down | 0 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-3pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 3PM ET | 73,458,532 | 73,458,532 |
ce82aee1fec6f15761e59c056dff2cb114ce5229 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xcd9e9b1e4eb660c54fec674c3e5494489ad54b16f0adb431f3d86655363823b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Eve... | up | 0.000448 | bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-4pm-et | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4PM ET | 73,458,532 | 73,458,532 |
7201a20aab5f06ca9fb5a429990ad9800cdc64e4 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x504b772e89e54b369cfaf1929079fbb2ecb94ba4ee8e99b98d7a401f704e4622 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event... | up | 0.000091 | ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-4pm-et | Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 4PM ET | 73,458,532 | 73,459,207 |
9691918ebcef30bc522e0fc9c324ebf1c51da469 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x483879a8a884dde8f35090eb340283341f62712997277e5cd94482cb7c277125 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Solana Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: solana-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Ev... | down | 0 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-4pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 4PM ET | 73,458,532 | 73,463,815 |
57c208515978ce4080fd5b3457147328d4c2df13 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x1e18d04966a5d1dc1e7e9a30f7155b569d158cefab33ac6fc2b84c8457eeacb8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | ... | up | 1 | xrp-up-or-down-july-1-1pm-et | XRP Up or Down - July 1, 1PM ET | 73,459,828 | 73,459,828 |
00c4611b5bc213b3c92659c780340bce02351e68 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x14a69e9d66fde017eaa59b7f6070ebdac1bfd6627d1ace02b619c3f1b6d6e79e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-6pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9PM ET | Event:... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-6-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 6 at 5PM ET? | 73,676,956 | 73,676,956 |
cb2ed77acdfb8675a2c0e7798e27f36613d23913 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x4032138ecca7c3005e219e466c19e2e739782650419759c2e27cd8c68c5c6d21 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-7pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003336112593549949
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8PM... | yes | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | 73,717,805 | 73,717,805 |
d62ffc54a79b03b7bfe1fae2d5e41843ae973dff | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x44b1ca894a61baff0924288fcaaecb4bd389a5015dd6c4210529ec523b342a76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: XRP Up or Down - June 30, 9PM ET | Event: xrp-up-or-down-june-30-9pm-et | Choice: up | Confidence: 0.0003336112593549949
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 3AM... | no | 1 | fifa-club-world-cup-winner | Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? | 73,758,270 | 73,758,270 |
98c26824386aa795dd873e0766cf817f5ccb34e4 | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0xf45d627e09b910b429bf00c9006bae4f5f3b42e787b6e6b27f544946c61dfa3e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8PM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-june-30-8pm-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Eve... | no | 1 | 2025-mid-season-invitational | Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? | 73,828,916 | 73,828,916 |
0358774f77dcc6a4cfef1e4c0b7423e5b7ac04ab | 0x06fc0fae58c42b1da03aca9caab203cf64ad94ce | 0x6d41029c7b01c54bf7153dc39f88798d82ff4b411bdd6b23d055481bb3150aa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: ethereum-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: bitcoin-up-or-down-july-1-3am-et | Choice: down | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: XRP Up or Down - July 1, 3AM ET | Event: xr... | no | 1 | 2025-wimbledon-winner-m | Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | 73,848,595 | 73,848,595 |
08181e067ff27c3ff61a2dc6ba4b3cc5d5e05276 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x04953395c761d763b72100cede52c0a2e6a2747aea04857e0678e787a992fa5a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals?
Event: champions-chess-tour-winner
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | champions-chess-tour-winner | Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | 65,772,488 | 65,772,488 |
fddf7e7185610e37cc862d6d7da1b1ee8a99f1b4 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x73ea7178ac4b4c296f7736a50be8f6ca65acc81c5ccf6e42ea388b04815e895f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60?
Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the t... | no | 1 | sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | 65,843,537 | 65,843,537 |
cf120f0be6ec33ab3f2de6112b02d01eba7088a9 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xc908e26576854a5959929655f133899fc425f57ac89ab741a103c9e1b554812c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will ... | no | 1 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | 66,049,107 | 66,049,107 |
def7b97ab5353c5695726d9f192ac0178e727810 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xb1d8edd5495415396b5cbfdf3f577be73475a0a3a54374e4e85f27365ccf5362 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Rapid Championship? | 66,049,684 | 66,049,684 |
eabf53dde4925721456ce340baacb1ff8d7f2cf8 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x16069c08c3f7022390ecc169dd2aee77bfda70121df6415932a38ddffba72a67 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Rapid Championship? | 66,049,819 | 66,049,819 |
126019027789d50ffd11efc84cf60bfc673252c7 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x1557d7e36a780337700de6b2d63dcc6b6f4fc82827abb1bf83ebf8d5998ab61b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,158,995 | 66,158,995 |
3899385d2c4fd52977ce16f07e21ed84a758dc35 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x4a044881137b2ec058392a87ab57c1bc22705ee5c385d726e4400d9a7f2f5c65 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,158,995 | 66,158,995 |
93ab0c1a255b1d341b5b2d9c6d1d9383aeb31f7c | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xa6c94d5515933a15772bd73a3fbb573f1004e230738c500fa82fcae2bdd5531d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | steam-awards-game-of-the-year | Will 'Stalker 2: Heart of Chernobyl' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards? | 66,158,995 | 66,158,995 |
e70444507c1755be7aea2a9e1d4cedcbc3a7dc78 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x133a0ab961b2fc80d80e073a68e102019b22fb0628ba23251708cf5278a1a512 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | fide-world-blitz-champion | Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | 66,161,265 | 66,161,265 |
c2a84691cd674f16e111aa90ab4578b7235d57ae | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | highest-grossing-movie-in-2024 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | 66,268,230 | 66,268,230 |
46f829ee64acfc1b9ec45db84fe4314b1c57e859 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x30ecf18dbd93627bc01d8bf9da92d1e1dbd6c32e1ce2be5500824ff5654d86eb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | how-long-will-it-take-jersey-jerry-to-hit-a-hole-in-one | Will it take Jerry 6-12 hours to hit a hole in one? | 67,477,139 | 67,477,139 |
ee91ffa34451f6145144027634e4f78cd04ab5fe | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xc2c1038424a37a044781d1915e82ddbea1515d79cdb8966a2bf0a658b178b21c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-january | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? | 67,477,139 | 67,477,139 |
058c20a4a3128ba1fe7ec8111af634224985e695 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x82a55339c54a05c5ec1755324e942a5ddc839de97c8a51b344bc0120419be900 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | february-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? | 68,366,937 | 68,366,937 |
e7679794677aa83af9451f4ea297dbd7d087e189 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x1bfee74a9e930055ff37e24abd89bce68f33817b2c6bbafe906064249954fbb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | february-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? | 68,928,363 | 68,928,363 |
83d823ee912f70cc8bcecf02e2f604d573328704 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xe866a5c8e9ba90086e8dbb93acd5d6b2275ca4b4a61956383c8fd999077255c0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | price-of-dozen-eggs-in-february | Will egg prices be between $4.50 and $4.75 in February? | 68,965,984 | 68,965,984 |
bfacafbbbe73ff4d65955fe6b82e2d0118b5a24e | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xad506c65823a0f12dcdb38b19bef3b12f2c655d9d6c5512586d56b1d597cbc7c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 70,503,628 | 70,503,628 |
550afb68e84a590a590a0f90c82fa560d65bc14c | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x62ce87ce01ca7cdbae04f574bbcd636c55edad96ac9831f7c2d6491ab47dbec5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | xrp-all-time-high-in-april | XRP all time high in April? | 70,991,125 | 70,991,125 |
e18d4043794446be4783f74dd53fd4ea94f0ab42 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xadbaf7f6e2647f50e292b93cf651a5eeddcdd246ebfbc3ed04fc2cfe7bf1df60 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-april | Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? | 70,991,125 | 70,991,125 |
8380af3f090e1621602562c55853d76ec590663b | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 0 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | 71,241,804 | 71,241,804 |
156562ba96e8ed27a39f931add45d6d0ff3e9cfe | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-may-2025 | No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | 71,241,804 | 71,241,804 |
d695064aff609889c1cab59f574680d3f26f72de | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x5cea1edc2de5ada3f4716dd4404ba0cd97203bdc6476f192af7a8d372c2151c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | yes | 1 | crunchyroll-best-main-character | Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? | 71,959,243 | 71,959,243 |
454568eefaee0c2d6dd7e2cbabd31aa8fbb19f50 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x0d220793a65bfffec618c25a014d7c1a98dcc9b49058073fa69135b9f45bf023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-may | Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? | 72,248,735 | 72,248,735 |
0194ef14d6375144677ed2ac0a165df97cd17f0a | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x5c5d8fb514510350791c3389a89bcf73922279a2eeb717fcf71af4ad11a0a951 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-may | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 72,248,735 | 72,248,735 |
5f23214ce54e03c3ba7c9cc9203dfd8b69f0c48e | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x8279c6f272e91c531774740fcca2fae9a09767c8052c1edeb22229cf2d58c037 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | karate-kid-legends-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend? | 72,298,572 | 72,298,572 |
c2c06ee919cad9ce9c0d6305a38ae60690291682 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x4717b0024b59499b6afe3bf5451b1d78170ffa565253cc12545597a5ac78b676 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | from-the-world-of-john-wick-ballerina-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50? | 72,606,647 | 72,606,647 |
066e1eca937aed8f8c5048275b4a8b885e9c2e77 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x686fb9aba46c4d33c53ad7c951a32b8b655c3be13a7da5ffa2abc2e433024cdd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? | 72,606,647 | 72,606,647 |
b4b1812d805f8227b19dc4e1ddfad957ce0901e6 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x69722a3bd3cb974ff0a824c5db3a6e56131958ddda0e2241a17598766299eaa2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | may-2025-temperature-increase-c | Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in May 2025? | 72,606,647 | 72,606,647 |
4e269a5c288f253791a4affed6e9f37783c44e36 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xdb581d7b4554a2d9ea00152954170ec85128c96460f15c7bcc858643b7a4b870 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | yes | 1 | how-to-train-your-dragon-rotten-tomatoes-score | Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 75? | 72,850,083 | 72,850,083 |
e1f46be6335c7069e8f3f64c530dba6461092939 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | yes | 1 | nba-champion-2024-2025 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | 73,181,169 | 73,181,169 |
c8daac025e35af3169c496696398905ae99a2e71 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0xdd9ef0d63585635fadb407fa671aa6f3e3c7b7288085f9ba47894255aeab9851 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | largest-company-end-of-june | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 73,439,707 | 73,439,707 |
0395eac8ebd5439fdc83323a1672b35bca7aabe5 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x0d133da4c0c95cef63d19e8d5bef0ed0cf2616f81bfc843fecfd8469fe54be49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Ian Nepomnichtchi win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Event: champions-chess-tour-winner | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Magnus Carlse... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $117m? | 73,707,236 | 73,707,236 |
33381ce22a3813c4febb929007f1eebcf21f4ed7 | 0x072cee131e3fe738d80483aa070c2d977148bd4a | 0x0d09f8cb4ac601074c02828328a893fdab030ece3ca682faaef89d82c43daec2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Sonic 3" Rotten Tomatoes score be below 60? | Event: sonic-3-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the World Rapid Championship? | Event: fide-world-rapid-chess-champion | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wesley So win th... | no | 1 | fed-decision-in-july | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | 74,612,449 | 74,612,449 |
8e7485ff85044e1659b21d3cd4123a671a4fa3ad | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xbfdc7ef421c0d81f44ee3bc32f7b831a1fa335d43987f8ae7572664f63343a2b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot
Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | norrie | 0 | atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | 78,360,245 | 79,912,699 |
051a4f175c2580624f68b6940d672e8e7e9c2e3d | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x0660ca98c4633c1854f5d2dd57353cdca4a2d6c38cf28ece01dd9a42914a1565 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo
Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. O... | bai | 0 | wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | 78,361,133 | 78,361,133 |
2f4265675e56875934cf61e43cc87c51a485f0ae | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x7620068776641540e1f7c0bcf432d0148dcbbfd44b51cb4ce9858027e8bc2537 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
Target market:
Question: Prudential Hong Kon... | mboko | 0.00001 | wta-eala-mboko-2025-10-30 | Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alexandra Eala vs Victoria Mboko | 78,361,139 | 78,361,139 |
7f816bf1117dada6869401fd71fd334eadd55922 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xf03546cf6338e55e1e2924065476c8beee40645262fe3279f99ccc70e74731c8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | iatcenko | 0 | wta-iatcenk-kawa-2025-10-30 | Chennai Open: Polina Iatcenko vs Katarzyna Kawa | 78,361,149 | 78,361,222 |
2a427d222f23076d05970e24bd2dba5a31a2b2a7 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xce47bf30501d7861247f97071db69225467b0995b3651dd125744d11039512e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | altmaier | 0 | atp-augeral-altmaie-2025-10-30 | Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier | 78,361,158 | 78,361,158 |
e6b7b59429433a11e142a589114ead2ebf83ac66 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x57a9913b354c2d3a5e3cb7a766393a153bc086794fa5fdaf41df8fbd711b434b | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | dzumhur | 0 | atp-dzumhur-fearnle-2025-11-02 | Hellenic Championship: Damir Dzumhur vs Jacob Fearnley | 78,535,816 | 78,535,816 |
0c8bdf86336887b3d0eeecc478dd3bf3c30a1998 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x9cfc4382d7e9962f470d18c209785bce662dfb58c0e0b10d2d6ef76fec962244 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | djere | 0 | atp-spizzir-djere-2025-11-03 | Hellenic Championship: Eliot Spizzirri vs Laslo Djere | 78,535,902 | 78,535,902 |
1767d09c5041fe0787ad04cbc7b3ac2190c8f1c6 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xc9934df9e3863d8d21057a03f42f184db7fb9aad549530888016ac31a13a95c4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | norrie | 0 | atp-norrie-sonego-2025-11-07 | Open de Moselle: Cameron Norrie vs Lorenzo Sonego | 78,712,137 | 78,714,379 |
34322d5f6b8d673d0b9b908c7d4fe21253f0dc30 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x6c10d6cfc072d579758d564a9843f1c5091539ac95597942cd7e782e7f0c25a3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | kings | 0 | nhl-ott-lak-2025-11-24 | Senators vs. Kings | 79,470,214 | 79,470,214 |
f6db808d516c9c55e735c22343a53654178796ea | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x5619428670934ffd3e9e6f5da41dc65fa95c8d63dceabb536adcabaa65681f7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | heroic | 0 | dota2-heroic-ty-2025-11-26 | Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Yandex (BO1) | 79,530,759 | 79,554,048 |
44fb7c7e86de1ad74b18c97a8d8d98868fe02325 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x01231a52d7399d8ba76d7b629b2680c049ba08ce7c32c62d08ad77beb587e7bd | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | mouz | 0 | dota2-mouz-og-2025-11-26 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1) | 79,530,936 | 79,530,936 |
a07cc50197243d674925b48baf71b51b35d9f3a4 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0x8550780e921c9ddbfdc2e784432409e108b432eb861b7423f8bfd367f2929bb3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | natus vincere | 0 | dota2-tundra-navi-2025-11-26 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1) | 79,533,435 | 79,554,048 |
b48df2b91eede7ea80561392666f252475e4850a | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xe25db0414f43fc41c110680e063953e00cbdd9ffb556229c8cc86d6a179813e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | execration | 0 | dota2-tt2-xctn-2025-11-26 | Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Execration (BO1) | 79,533,445 | 79,912,693 |
3a93e3135f164df49eb0e3b36179b625c9a7cef9 | 0x073a3fcd41c4d6a935e4e0ffacb2d390f8626f98 | 0xbf1a4f2b75bbd40d289b1f9a72e1ff2b8499347e96ddcbafbf2f9cd241cb1dda | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherot | Event: atp-norrie-vachero-2025-10-30 | Choice: norrie | Confidence: 0.0
2. Question: Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo | Event: wta-bai-guo-2025-10-30 | Choice: bai | Confidence: 0.0
3. Question: Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open... | natus vincere | 0 | dota2-xtreme-navi-2025-11-27 | Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) | 79,574,526 | 79,912,693 |
6253515476c3e0828731cc9b64b7f949a6780c3f | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x5401278f7f9c9df79552148e2b280dea9ea91431a77c2c46686b8bec598970e7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024?
Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Ethereum all time high in 2024? | 66,222,684 | 66,222,684 |
1dbb47f56a597fbbd0c2c2c2c2532a3acd20bcd8 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xcbc596c7f92eea16cd3e5609c5074cfdb6ed76e919e3af890a4776ceb1247cf3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December?
Event: berachain-token-launch-wen
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {... | no | 1 | berachain-token-launch-wen | Will Berachain launch a token in December? | 66,222,686 | 66,222,686 |
8010a9cba8c5f8dab9cc500033783aa720645526 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0x82e70a9a64cd42bd8b07768ae91ef85b9e5a962efb8470dc57197d43621a9fa8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance... | no | 1 | next-coin-listed-on-binance | Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | 66,222,688 | 66,222,688 |
99510784c3641f6ed3946d155bec975b45acac76 | 0x07849fbb31d997c7ba62e13fcc5d31b0688af127 | 0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Event: ethereum-all-time-high-in-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December? | Event: berachain-token-launch-wen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will $MOODENG be listed first on Binance? | Event: ne... | yes | 1 | ethereum-all-time-high-wen | No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | 66,222,688 | 66,222,688 |
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