{
    "Baringo DEWS": {
        "DEWS_2015": {
            "Baringo 2015 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2015 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show minimal fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. No much rainfall received within the month of September. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is within normal ranges. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: There were livestock migrations towards Arabal and Mukutani volatile area in search of water and pasture especially from Amaya and Orus area. Minimum security relatedrestricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated but showing signs of stress in Pastoral livelihood zones milk production reduced slightly but expected to reduce further with the scarcity of water and pasture in pastoral livelihood zones. Still within normal ranges. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Water in the pans is below normal (45) and trekking distances is within normal range. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13.6 this is slightly below the threshold point of Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal due to rampant usage of contaminated water. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL NO CHANGE COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 48 (23) 80-120 0.02(May) -1 to 1 VCI-3month 35-50 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4 (1-Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 23(ltrs) 9.0 - 21.80 Water Households-trekking distance(km) of water in the water pan Crops area planted for the season LTA (47,000Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize) 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Occurrence of Water scarce diseases-scabies 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium The drought situation is currently unpredictable. Rains were received in the first week of September in the highlands and in the low lands there was little to no rainfall. This has made the situation worsen in pastoral livelihood zones as there is no regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans are decreasing at a fast rate due to high evaporation and increased use. Drought risks slightly trending towards medium within the month of September due to lack of rains. Drought effects are expected to improve with predicted El nino rains from the month of October. Preparedness activities are recommended to improve community resilience building. SEPTEMBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 30.00 mm within the month of September. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 108.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures are remained high in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 29 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 34 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge forecasts an increased rainfall in the next two months. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data: 1.1.2.RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 5 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON DECARDS Fig.1.Source ARV RFE In the fig.1 above high rainfall was received in the 10th and 21st decards within Baringo North sub-county Fig.2.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above high rainfall was received in the 12th and 21st decards within Baringo North Sub-county. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, high rainfall was received in the 12th and 21st decards within Baringo North sub-county. Fig.4.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.4. Above, high rainfall was received in the 12th and 21st decards within Baringo central sub- county. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) NB July SPI data have not provided. It will be shared when availed The May SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county were 0.02 and 0.03 respectively compared to the Long term average for Baringo County and east Pokot sub-county were 0.01 and 0.02 respectively. Generally, SPI was below long term average from Jan-March but has since increased to above LTA and better than this time last year. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The Vegetation Condition Index for the whole County is currently at 43 which is within the normal VCI range of 35-50 but on a reducing trend as reflected in Fig 1 below. This indicates that the countys vegetation cover is currently normal but on a reducing trend. But with onset of dry spell this expected to worsen. Fig 1. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal The vegetation conditions improved in Baringo Central with the VCI score above normal ranges. Baringo Central is currently phasing good vegetation cover but on a reducing trend of 60.38. Fig 2. In the figure 3 below, the VCI for Baringo North is currently at 49.67, compared to last months of 62.89,the Vegetation cover reduced. This indicates Normal Conditions within Baringo North but trending towards Moderate drought. Fig 3. In the figure 4 below, the Vegetation cover for Baringo South is currently at 38.43 compared to last months VCI of 50.68, the VCI decreased in the month of September .This indicates normal condition of drought phase within Baringo South sub-county but expected to change for the worsen with on-going dry spell. Fig 5. In the fig 6 below, the VCI for Eldama Ravine is currently at 66.70 compared to last months VCI of 76.18. The VCI reduced in the month of September but still within very good conditions. Fig 6. In the fig 6 above, the VCI for Garsen is currently at 55.99 compared to last months VCI of 66.25, the VCI reduced in the month of August but still within Normal conditions Fig 7. In the fig 7 above, the VCI for Mogotio is currently at 43.00 compared to last months VCI of 53.59, the VCI reduced in the month of September but still within Normal conditions. Fig 8. In the fig 8 above, the VCI for Baringo Tiaty is currently at 34.57 compared to last months VCI of 49.11, the VCI reduced in the month of September. This shows the Tiaty is currently experiencing Moderate drought 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Pasture and browse condition reduced slightly in the month of September. The vegetation cover greenness reduced. The livestock body also remained good in agro pastoral and irrigated zones but showing signs of stress in pastoral livelihood zones. However, the failed rains in Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei have forced animal movements from these areas towards, Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal in search for pasture. This usually ignites resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing agreements needs to be negotiated to curb perennial flare ups at convergence zones. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources really changed in the month of September due to lack of rains . Upper regions (Churo anad Tangulbei) of the county did not receive rains. Temperatures remained high during the month due to scourging sunrays across sentinel sites. The good rains experienced in late July and early August increased water pans volumes to above 70 but this is reducing due to lack of rainfall since then. Main water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is still poor in all livelihood zones with more than 5 sentinel sites reporting water borne diarrhoeal cases. The predicted El nino rains are expected to maintain the water resource through the short rains season. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 18,164 in August to 27,897 in September. This is attributed to minimal livestock movements which encouraged stock breeding. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns The failed rains in Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei have forced animal movements from these areas towards, Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal in search for pasture. This usually ignites resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing agreements needs to be negotiated to curb perennial flare ups at convergence zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is good but deteriorating and this is attributed to long distances covered by herds in search of water, pasture and browse. This has also been escalated by lack of sufficient rainfall that can support regeneration pasture. Generally, the ribs visible are 1-3 in cattle. Livestock within pastoral livelihood zones have started showing body stress. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP, Trypanosomiasis and worms remained endemic across the livelihood zones. FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kolloa ,Ngoron,Kapenguria and Kapunyany though vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government through . Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolloa, Loiwat, Endao, Yatya, Kolloa Goats Sheep. 101- Yatya Endao, Yatya, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 3-Yatya Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 70-Goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats Black water Yatya 45-Sheep 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 32 bottles in the month of September 2015 compared to 34 bottles of the month of August. There was a decrease in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of 46 bottles. This decrease is attributed to the onset of dry spell which has led to scarcity of water and pasture. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths SEPTEMBER 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying decreased further from 487 in August to 418 in September due to decrease of disease incidences as a result of on-going vaccinations by Ministry of Livestock. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION There is massive crop failure especially in purely pastoral areas due to prolong delay of rains, the lower sides of East Pokot, Churo and other agro pastoral areas have lost the whole crop due to massive wilting, Mogotio area also experienced significant moisture stress hence reducing the expected yields for the year. Pastoralists are advised to feed their livestock with these totally wilted maize crops in order salvage some economical value. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize, tomatoes and vegetable harvests reported in agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones within the month of August. Good harvests were reported in some areas but other areas like the pastoral livelihood zones had total crop failure. Farmers are now preparing their farms in readiness for the October rains. 2.2.2 Harvest Maize harvests were reported within the end of last month though some areas had total crop failure due to deficit in moisture content that resulted from lack of enough rainfall. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade Currently the term of trade is 55 Kg of maize for a goat. Compared to last month, it shows increasing trend. The current terms of trade is above long term mean of 66 Kg for a goat. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle remained stable at Ksh 12,985 in September. Compared to the month of August, the same price was recorded. This is attributed to market dynamics. The price was above the long term mean of Ksh.11, 290 as shown on the graph. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 12,442. Irrigated croping livelihood zone had the average price of Ksh. 9,200. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average price of a medium size goat in the month of September was Kshs.2, 440. In comparison to the month of August, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2,834 . The prices in September decreased. The price decrease is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,800 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price increased from Ksh.1, 944 in August to Ksh.2, 393 in September showing appreciation. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1663. the increase in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,514 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh.1,976. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of September, 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh.36,000 an increase from Ksh 25,250 price of August owing to market depreciation. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle remained at Ksh 40.compared to Ksh.37 of the month of August, the prices increased. This is attributed to market dynamics. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per kilogram for the month of September was Kshs.44. In comparison to the month of August where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.46, the prices have decreased by the end of September. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.45 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of September was Kshs.61. In comparison to the month of August, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Kshs.54, the prices have increased by the end of September. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh. 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. The price of Posho is above the long term average. 3.2.3 . Beans The average beans price per kilogram for the month of September was Kshs.102. In comparison to the month of August, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.102, the prices have remained stable by the end of September. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh.105) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. 3.3.Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 30 bottles (750 ml) in the month of September. In comparison to the month of August, where the average milk consumed per household was 31 bottles(750 ml), the milk consumption level has decreased within the month of September .if the October rains fails, water and pasture will definitely become scarce and this will affect milk production in the next one month. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 44 bottles(750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of September 2015 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability was fair. Temperatures also significantly increased. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch ,Chepkoi, Barsuswo and Natan in Yatya, Orusion (Maron), Karun Barpello, Chemintany,Napetot, Kopombo Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa,. Orusion (Maron) Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of September was 3.3 kilometres. In comparison to the month of August where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.7 Kilometres, the distances have increased. This is attributed to lack of rainfall which has made major sources of water to dry up. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance increased further from 4.8 km in August to 6.0 km in September. This is attributed to poor distribution of rains in the month to sustain the little pasture that had regenerated during last long rains season hence causing further migrations in search of pasture. Pastoral all species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 9.1 km) an increase from last months 7.1 km and more than Irrigated cropping ( 1.2 km), previous month which was 0.5 Km. 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 14.8 in August to 13.6 in September, this can be attributed to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.6 as slight improvement from that of last month. Orus area registered a significant decrease of malnutrition cases from 4.7 in August to 4.0 in September. The overall drop is as a result of improving livestock production and access of food commodities availability of milk at the household level. Kolloa and Kapenguria recorded increased malnutrition due to rampant diarrhoeal cases in children. SENTINEL SEPTEMBE R 2015 MUAC JUN BREAKDOW AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of September was 13.6. In comparison to the month of August, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 14.8, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month of September. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to worsen with the onset of the dry spell. Health(Livestock) Disease Areas Reported MALARIA Loiwat, Orus, Yatya, Maron, Katikit, Kiserian, Kolloa, Kapenguria, Endao, Kapunyany, Kinyach, , Kaptuya, Komolion, Ngambo,Yatya DIARHOEA Maron, Orus, Kiserian, Kapenguria, Kolloa TYPHOID Endao, Yatya, Kiserian,Ngambo, Katikit, Kapenguria BRUCELLOSIS Yatya, Kolloa, Kapenguria FLUCOLD Endao, Yatya, , Kinyach, Maron, Loiwat, Kolloa SCABIES Kiserian CHOLERA Ngambo SCABIES Kiserian 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. Cattle dip construction by County government at Loropil area in Endao is now completed. Livestock were vaccinated against FMD in Ngoron area. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is upgrading Kipcherere- Sibilo County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded World vision constructed water tanks in 2 schools Chemintany and kinyach FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. Seeds were supplied to 157 farmers by county government County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government provided farm inputs to 157 households in Kinyach County government is constructing cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuya. County government is upgrading buildings at Kaptuya community wildlife conservancy. Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. Unimix flour and pumpy nut to all ECDs and Komolion dispensary by County government and WFP respectively. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No insecurity incidence involving cattle rustling were reported this month. This can be directly attributed to extensive concerted efforts by all stakeholders promoting peaceful and harmonious cohesion among warring neighbours. Political wing of the county also played a key role in reconciling their communities so as to share the scarce pastoralist resources peacefully. Establishment of police posts in Kagir and other volatile areas have increasingly deterred cattle raids. These fruitful efforts need to be sustained to ensure perpetual harmonious coexistence among pastoralists in the county. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There was minimal in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to reduced cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently unpredictable. Rains were received in the first week of September in the highlands and in the low lands there was little to no rainfall. This has made the situation worsen in pastoral livelihood zones as there is no regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans are decreasing at a fast rate due to high evaporation and increased Drought risks slightly trending towards medium within the month of September due to lack of rains. Drought effects are expected to improve with predicted El nino rains from the month of October. Preparedness activities are recommended to improve community resilience building. The food security situation is at Boderline and this might worsen if the expected Elnino ra Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2015 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall received within the 1st and 2nd week of October but more(111mm) received on 4th week of October. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges.VCI-3 month for Tiaty and Mogotio is below normal ranges hence indicating Moderate drought but expected to change with current rainfall received at the 4th week of October. Water in the pans is below normal (50-35) . Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: There were livestock migrations towards Arabal and Mukutani volatile area in search of water and pasture especially from Amaya and Orus area. Minimum security relatedrestricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition is fair in agro-pastoral and irrigated but showing signs of stress in Pastoral livelihood zones. Expected to change with regeneration of pasture and browse. Milk production still within normal ranges. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 14.8 this is slightly below the threshold point of Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal due to rampant usage of contaminated water. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL NO CHANGE COUNTY ALERT Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 111(93) 80-120 (0.04)0.04 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 28(28)21 58 (53) 60 35-50 of water in the water pan 3 (50-35) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3 (3-4 Ribs visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by September) 43987Ha(maize) 21527Ha(Beans) LTA (38550Ha) LTA(22859Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by September) Not provided 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium The drought risk situation is currently medium tending toward high but expected to improve with the rains received within the last week of October. There were no much rains received in the first two weeks of October. This had made the situation worse in pastoral livelihood zones as there were no regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans were decreasing at a fast rate due to high evaporation and increased use but with the rains received within the 4th week of October, water levels are expected to improve. Drought risks trending towards medium within the month of October due to lack of rains. Drought effects are expected to remain high if predicted El nino rains fail but with some little rains experienced in last week of October slight improvement is expected. Activation of DCF for mitigation purposes are recommended for areas currently experiencing moderate drought . OCTOBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 111.00 mm within the 4th week of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 120.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures are remained high in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 26 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 30 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge forecasts an increased rainfall in the next two months. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data(GROUND DATA: 1.1.2.RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 78.00 mm within the month of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 76.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a bove normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 40.00 mm within the month of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 52.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a bove normal trend during this period of the year. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) . The October SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal because of lack of adequate rainfall for the 1st 3 weeks of October. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for August for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 29, 28 and 21 respectively all were below the respective long term averages 58 (53) 60 for the month and also below the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig 3 below. This indicates that the county as a whole and specific sub counties are currently experiencing moderate drought . This calls upon the activation of DCF funds to mitigate the effect of drought. However with the the increase rainfall within the 4th week of October the VCI is expected to improve in the next one month. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY Sub County VCI as at October BARINGO County Moderate drought conditions in all sub-counties, only Baringo central and Eldama ravine sub county are at normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving trend due to the on set of rainfall in the mid month. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty The information provided above indicate moderate drought conditions in all sub-counties, only Baringo and Eldama Ravine sub counties had normal vegetation conditions with notable improving trend due ongoing rains in October which will necessitate the improvement of pasture and browse in Agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Fig 4. Fig.5 The matrix above shows there was improved vegetation growth after the Long Rains seasonMAM,but deteriorated trend from the month of September to October due to lack of rains. It is expected that the ongoing October- November El nino rains will turn around the trend. Fig 6. In the fig 6 above, the VCI for Baringo Tiaty is currently at 21.45 compared to last months VCI of 34.57, the VCI reduced in the month of October. This shows the Tiaty is currently experiencing Moderate drought. Fig 7. In the fig 7 above, the VCI for Mogotio is currently at 27.63 compared to last months VCI of 43.00, the VCI reduced in the month of October. This indicates Moderate drought within Mogotio. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Pasture and browse condition remained poor, but there were indication of pasture regeneration and browse following the rains that were experienced in the 4th week of October.. The vegetation cover greenness is expected to improve with the ongoing El nino rains. The livestock body is consequently expected to improve. Pastoralists are still accessing pasture, browse and water in their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders, those from Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei are still in Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal, Livestock from Lower Kerio are accessing pastures in Kasarani and Kadungoi along Turkana border, Livestock from Maron and Kositei are in Kalabata and Chemoe in search of water and pasture. The pasture is good in these volatile buffer zones as they were abandoned by fighting communities for several months, but the pastoralists are expected to return back home to access new pastures in the next one month if the rains continue pounding. Convergence usually ignites resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing agreements needs to be negotiated to curb perennial flare ups at convergence zones. TTher are fears that as patroalist move out of the convergence due to improve pasture during the expected enhanced rins of OND, host communities have raised cattle rustling during the dis-engagement This calls for increased surveillance and peace meetings. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources changed for the worse in the first 2 weeks of October due to lack of adequate rains. Upper regions (Churo anad Tangulbei) of the county did not receive rains within this period. Temperatures remained high during the month due to scourging sunrays across sentinel sites. Water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is remained poor within the 1st two weeks of October in all livelihood zones with more than 5 sentinel sites reporting water borne diarrhoeal cases but this changed in the 4th week of October where some rains were received which increased the quantity of water in seasonal rivers and dams. The predicted El Nino rains are yet to recharge the water resource through the short rains season. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods decreased from 27,897 in September to 21,565 in October. This is attributed to livestock movements which has led to pastoralists losing some of their herds to wild animals. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Pastoralists are still accessing pasture, browse and water in their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders, those from Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei have still in Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal, Livestock from Lower Kerio are accessing pastures in Kasarani and Kadungoi along Turkana border, Livestock from Maron and Kositei are in Kalabata and Chemoe in search of water and pasture. The pasture is good in these volatile buffer zones as they were abandoned by fighting communities for several months, but the pastoralists are expected to return back home to access new pastures in the next one month if the rains continue pounding. No major livestock diseases have been reported 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is fair in agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods but deteriorating in pastoral livelihood zones. This is attributed to long distances covered by herds in search of water, pasture and browse. This has also been escalated by lack of sufficient rainfall that can support regeneration pasture. Generally, thin ribs visible are 3-4 Ribs visible in cattle. Livestock within pastoral livelihood zones are showing body stress. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP, Trypanosomiasis and worms remained endemic across the livelihood zones. FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kolloa ,Ngoron,Kapenguria and Kapunyany though vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government through . Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Livestock Lost in September Kapunyany,Akoret, Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Goats Sheep. 85 goats 101- Yatya Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 2 cows 3-Yatya Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 45 goats 70-Goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats Red water Akoret Cattle Black water Yatya Goats sheep 35 sheep 45-Sheep 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 32 bottles(750ml) in the month of October 2015 compared to 32 bottles(750ml) of the month of September. There were no difference in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of 44 bottles. This decrease is attributed to the lack of rainfall which has led to scarcity of water and pasture. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths OCTOBER 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying decreased further from 418 in September to 351 in October due to decrease of disease incidences as a result of on-going vaccinations by Ministry of Livestock. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Crops under Kolloa irrigation scheme are doing well, currently at knee high level and some already at tassling stage. Pastoralists are skeptical about the agricultural sector advisories informing them to take advantage of El nino rains by planting short season crops, generally the harvesting of surviving maize crop is over across the county. Agro pastoralists are appealing to ministry of Agriculture to supply certified maize and beans seeds for them to take advantage of El nino rain. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers have prepared their farms and some of them have planted and are now waiting for the October rains. 2.2.2 Harvest Maize harvests were reported within the end of last season though some areas had total crop failure due to deficit in moisture content that resulted from lack of enough rainfall. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant decrease in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 10,918 a decrease from Ksh 11,214 in October and goats at Ksh 2,411 a decrease from Ksh 2,486 in October. Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (61), due to falling livestock prices and increasing food prices. In October, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 47 which is a decrease from 49 attributed to decreasing of goat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle were at Ksh.10, 918 in October. Compared to the month of September(11,214), the prices decreased. This is attributed to market dynamics. The prices were below the long term mean of Ksh.12, 614 as shown on the graph. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 11,816. Irrigated croping livelihood zone had the lowest average price of Ksh. 10,000. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average price of a goat in the month of October was Kshs.2, 411. In comparison to the month of September, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2,486 . The prices in October decreased. The price decrease is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,800 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price decreased from Ksh.2, 330 in September to Ksh.2, 293 in October showing depreciation. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1,715. the decrease in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,800 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh.1,796. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of October, 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh.23,126 a decrease from Ksh. 35,000 price of September owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle remained stable at Ksh. 46 within the month of October. This is attributed to market dynamics. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per kilogram for the month of October was Kshs.37. In comparison to the month of September where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.41, the prices have decreased by the end of October. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.45 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.25. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of October was Kshs.45. In comparison to the month of September, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Kshs.48, the prices have decreased by the end of October. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are below long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Agro-Pastoral Species livelihood zone (Ksh 50) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh. 35 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. The price of Posho is below the long term average. 3.2.3. Beans The average beans price per kilogram for the month of October was Kshs.103. In comparison to the month of September, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.102, the prices have remained stable by the end of October. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh.105) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. 3.3.Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 29 bottles (750 ml) in the month of October. In comparison to the month of September, where the average milk consumed per household was 30 bottles(750 ml), the milk consumption level has decreased within the month of October .if the Short rains fails, water and pasture will definitely become scarce and this will affect milk production in the next one month. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 44 bottles(750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of October 2015 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability was fair. Temperatures also significantly increased. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch ,Chepkoi, Barsuswo and Natan in Yatya, Kapombo Karun Barpello, Chemintany,Napetot, Kopombo in Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa, Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support, Solar borehole near Kapedo was vandalized during insecurity Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of October was 3.1 kilometres. In comparison to the month of September where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.9 Kilometres, the distances have increased. This is attributed to lack of rainfall which has made major sources of water to dry up. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance increased further from 5.2 km in September to 6.4 km in October. This is attributed to lack of adequate rains in the month to sustain the little pasture that had regenerated during last long rains season hence causing further migrations in search of pasture. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 8.2 km) and more than Irrigated cropping ( 0.8 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 14.8 in August to 13.6 in September, this can be attributed to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.6 as slight improvement from that of last month. Orus area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases by 3.9 in October. The overall upward trend is as a result of higher number of household having a lower food consumption score due to lack of access to proper diet. With the current drought major sources of income are current non-functional hence leading to a lower purchasing power for most of the households. SENTINEL BREAKDO AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURI KAPENGU KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYAN KAPUNYA KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLIO LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 14.33 TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of October was 14.4. In comparison to the month of September, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13.6, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years worsened within the month of October. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to improve with the onset of the short rains. Health(Livestock) Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Livestock Lost in September Kapunyany,Akoret, Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Goats Sheep. 85 goats 101- Yatya Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 2 cows 3-Yatya Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 45 goats 70-Goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats Red water Akoret Cattle Black water Yatya Goats sheep 35 sheep 45-Sheep EDUCATION 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.1 within the month of October. 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. Cattle dip construction by County government at Loropil area in Endao is now completed. Livestock were vaccinated against FMD in Ngoron area. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is upgrading Kipcherere- Sibilo County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded World vision constructed water tanks in 2 schools Chemintany and kinyach FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. Seeds were supplied to 157 farmers by county government County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government provided farm inputs to 157 households in Kinyach County government is constructing cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuya. County government is upgrading buildings at Kaptuya community wildlife conservancy. Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. Unimix flour and pumpy nut to all ECDs and Komolion dispensary by County government and WFP respectively. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Ngeleyo,Kipnyan, Adomeyon,Chesetim, Korelach, and Ngaina in Ngoron due to lack of water and food. Napur, Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. Chesawach pri schools- lack of teachers BARINGO NORTH Kapsepeiwa,Roroch, Karimo, Koindoi, Chemoe, Rondinin, Ngaratuko, Kakir, Kamencho nursery, Moinonin, Barketiew, Koibaware, Yatya and Sibilo in Yatya. Kinyach Boarding and day primary due to water scarcity County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No insecurity incidence involving cattle rustling were reported this month. This can be directly attributed to extensive concerted efforts by all stakeholders promoting peaceful and harmonious cohesion among warring neighbours. Political wing of the county also played a key role in reconciling their communities so as to share the scarce pastoralist resources peacefully. Establishment of police posts in Kagir and other volatile areas have increasingly deterred cattle raids. These fruitful efforts need to be sustained to ensure perpetual harmonious coexistence among pastoralists in the county. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron, Kolloa 17-shoats 2. Lynx Maron, Kolloa 34 shoats Hyena Maron, Kolloa 40-shoats Stray dogs Kolloa 10 goats 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There was migrations in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to reduced cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently Medium. Minimal rains we received in the first and second week of October. The highlands and in the low lands there was little to no rainfall. This has made the situation worsen in pastoral livelihood zones as there is no regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans are decreasing at a fast rate due to high evaporation and increased use. The rains received in the last week of October might bring positive impact on environmental indicators Drought risks slightly trending towards medium-high within the month of October due to lack of adequate rains. Drought effects are expected to improve with predicted El nino rains from the month of October. Preparedness activities are recommended to improve community resilience building. The food security situation is at Boderline and this might worsen if the expected Elnino ra Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2015 NORMAL 1 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 248mm received within the month of November. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges.VCI-3 month for Baringo, Tiaty and Mogotio is below normal ranges hence indicating Moderate drought but has since changed for the better with current rainfall received by the 4th week of November. Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: There were livestock migrations towards their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of water and pasture in these areas. These migrations have triggered cattle rustling. Livestock body condition is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is above normal ranges. Attributed to available pasture and water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13.8 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15.Improvement compared to last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal due to adequate water and not contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 248(182) 80-120 SPI(October) 0.37(0.33)0.6 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 31(24)29 35-50 of water in the water 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by September) 43987Ha(maize) 21527Ha(Beans) LTA (38550Ha) LTA(22859Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by September) Not provided 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium The drought risk situation is currently medium trending towards low but expected to improve further with the rains received within the 4th week of November. This had made the situation improve across all livelihood zones as there were regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans increased. If the rains continue, water levels are expected to improve further. NOVEMBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 248.00 mm within the 4th week of November. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 137.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Heavy down pour was mainly received in the highlands especially Kabartonjo and Kipsaraman areas. In the sentinel sites, water availability improved substantially due to water pan recharge and river flows Temperatures recorded dropped significantly during the month to (21-26ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data(GROUND DATA: Fig.1.Source NDMA 1.1.2.RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 112.00 mm within the month of November. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 91.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 92.00 mm within the month of November. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 74.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) . The November SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal because of adequate rainfall in the last 4 weeks of November. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for November for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 31, 24 and 29 respectively all were below the respective long term averages 55 (55) 57 for the month and also below the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig 3 below. This indicates that there was mild drought in Baringo County as a whole between October-early November. This has since changed for normal conditions with the November rains. This calls upon preparations for the oncoming dry spell, community members need to be trained to use food reserves well so as to avoid acute shortage in the next season. Fig.5.Source BOKU Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY Sub County VCI as at November BARINGO County Moderate drought conditions in all sub-counties, only Baringo central, Eldama ravine and Baringo North sub county are at normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving trend due to the on set of rainfall in the mid month. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates moderate drought conditions in Baringo County, projected to improve with the November rains. Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Baringo North sub counties had normal vegetation conditions with notable improving trend due on-going rains in November which will necessitate the improvement of pasture and browse in all livelihood zones zones. Fig.7.Source BOKU Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 30.7 of growth after the onset of Short Rains, but on improving trend compared to the month of October. This is attributed to November rains. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continues. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 28.7 of growth after the onset of Short Rains, but on improving trend compared to the month of October. This is attributed to November rains. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continue. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig 10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 24.2 of growth after the onset of Short Rains, but on reducing trend compared to the month of October but has since changed for the better. This is attributed to November rains. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continues. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition is currently good in the Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. The current good forage condition in all livelihood zones is a result of on-going short rains experienced in the county. Current forage is estimated to last for one to two months. With the onset of the short rains, most herds are migrating towards the traditional grazing grounds because of available water and pasture. Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County is currently normal. In comparison to the month of October, the quantity of pasture and browse within the County has improved and this is attributed to on- going showers currently being experienced across the County. This has supported regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The overall conditions are reflecting improving scenario and may sustain for the next 2 months if the present conditions prevails. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources With the onset of short rains, water levels have improved in some water reservoirs and currently there is enough water for both livestock and domestic needs. Water stress is currently minimal in Pastoral-All species and some part of Agro-Pastoral livelihoods. Most of the catchment poolsnatural ponds have recharged while the volumes in the pans have increased due to rainfall being experienced. The month of November received relatively good rains. Its spatial and temporal distribution is good with all sub counties reporting heavy showers resulting to fast water surface run offs that eroded most rural roads for instance Kokwa toto Tangulbei road, Orus - Akwichatis roads. Kokwa Toto water pan was also damaged by raging waters. Heavy down pour was mainly received in the highlands especially Kabartonjo and Kipsaraman areas. Generally in all sentinel sites, water availability improved substantially due to water pan recharge and river flows .This supplemented the borehole as the main water sources across pastoral areas especially East Pokot Sub county. Temperatures recorded dropped significantly during the month to (21-26ocelsius). The water pan capacity average is at above 70. The on-going rains are expected to further improve water availability and access. Water quantity and quality remained good by the 4th week of November in all livelihood zones with more than 5 sentinel sites reporting reduction in water borne diarrhoeal cases. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods decreased from 21,565 in October to 21,867 in November. This is attributed to lambing period which has been boosted by favourable climatic conditions. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Due to availability of pasture and water in traditional grazing grounds, livestocks are migrating back to these grounds. Pastoralists who were accessing pasture, browse and water in their fall back dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) are heading back home. Pastoralists who were at Laikipia ranches are also migrating towards Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha, Tangulbei, Mukutani and Arabal. Pastoralists who were at Kasarani and Kandugoi along Turkana border are migrating back to traditional grazing grounds of Lower Kerio. Pastoralists who were at Kalabata and Chemoe are heading back to traditional grazing grounds of Maron and Kositei. These seasonal migrations do trigger cattle rustling and therefore peace and reconciliation committee and administration police need to put measures in place to minimise such incidences which are already being experienced in some areas 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods but fair in pastoral livelihood zones. This is attributed to availability of water and pastures hence livestock dont walk long distances in search of water, pasture and browse. This has also been supported by availability of sufficient rainfall that supported regeneration of pasture. Generally,1 ribs visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP, Trypanosomiasis and worms remained endemic across the livelihood zones. CCPP cases in cattle were reported in Kiserian Kolloa, Kiptuya, Endao, Yatya and Akoret though vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government t Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost(October) Livestock lost(Nov) Kiserian, , , Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats Sheep. 85 goats 133 goats Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Kerio valley Cattle 2 cows 7 cattle Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 45 goats 50 goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats 2 cattle and 7 goats Red water Akoret, Kiserian Cattle Black water Yatya Goats and sheep 35 sheep 172 shoats 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 37 bottles (750ml) in the month of November 2015 compared to 32 bottles (750ml) of the month of October. There was an increase in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of 47 bottles. This increase is attributed to the availability of rainfall which has led to availability of water and regeneration of browse and pasture. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths NOVEMBER 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying decreased further from 351 in October to 325 in November due to decrease of disease incidences as a result of on-going vaccinations by Ministry of Livestock. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Farmers across all livelihood zones were sceptical on pre El nino agricultural advisories and many did not plant crops to take advantage of the rains, However, in Kinyach area farmers planted peas, beans and water melons and are now weeding is on-going. The maize crop under Kolloa irrigation scheme is at tussling stage. Acreage under maize was negligible and only in the mixed farming zone of Baringo Central sub county. Most farmers planted beans in the mixed and irrigated livelihood zones. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers had prepared their farms and planted their crops which have started growing. Crops that were planted in mid-October are now above the ground and most farmers within Agro-pastoral livelihoods are doing their first weeding. Crops that were planted early will start flowering from 2nd week of December to 4th week of December. Incidences of MLND reported at Mogotio irrigated areas. 2.2.2 Harvest No current harvest reported apart from water melons harvested within Irrigated and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh.12,607 an increase from Ksh.10,918 in October and goats at Ksh.2,539 an increase from Ksh.2,411 in October. Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (58), due to increasing livestock prices and increasing food prices. In November, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 45 which is a slight decrease from 47 attributed to slight increasing of goat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average prices of cattle were at Ksh.12, 506 in November. Compared to the month of October (10,918), the prices increased. This is attributed to market dynamics and given that the body of cattle has improved. The prices were below the long term mean of Ksh.13, 069 as shown on the graph. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh.13, 967. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the lowest average price of Ksh. 10,000. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average price of a goat in the month of November was Kshs.2, 539. In comparison to the month of October, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2, 411. The prices in November increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 125 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price increased from Ksh.2, 293 in October to Ksh.2, 348 in November showing upward trend. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 938. The decrease in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,746 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh.1, 950. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of November, 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh.22, 000 a decrease from Ksh. 23,126 price of September owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh. 47 within the month of November an increase from Ksh.46 of the month of October. This is attributed to market dynamics. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per kilogram for the month of November was Kshs.39. In comparison to the month of October where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.37, the prices have increased by the end of November. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are the same as the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral-all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.46 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.30. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of November was Kshs.46. In comparison to the month of October, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Kshs.45, the prices have increased by the end of November. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral-All Species livelihood zone (Ksh 50) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh.43 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans The average beans price per kilogram for the month of November was Kshs.94. In comparison to the month of October, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.103, the prices have decreased by the end of November. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are the same as the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the Pastoral-All species livelihood zone (Ksh.103) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 34 bottles (750 ml) in the month of November. In comparison to the month of October, where the average milk consumed per household was 29 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level has increased within the month of November. This is attributed to Short rains which are currently on-going. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 44 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of October 2015 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last two weeks the water availability was good. Temperatures also significantly decreased. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch ,Chepkoi, Barsuswo and Natan in Yatya, Cheptaran Chepturu borehole constructed by JICA needs to be equipped .Karun in Barpello, Chemintany,Napetot, Kopombo in Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa, Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support, Solar borehole near Kapedo was vandalized during insecurity not yet repaired Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of November was 2.3 kilometres. In comparison to the month of October where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 3.1 Kilometres, the distances have decreased. This is attributed to onset of short rains which has made major sources of water to recharge. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance decreased from 6.4 km in October to 4.3 km in November. This is attributed to onset of short rains which were adequate to regenerated pasture and browse. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (6.1km) and more than irrigated cropping (0.7 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 14.8 in October to 13.8 in November, this can be attributed to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 37 a slight increment from that of last month. Nakoko area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases by 2.6 in November and Akoret recorded the highest reduction of malnutrition cases by 2.9. The overall downward trend is as a result of higher number of household having access to basic food requirements as the current climatically conditions are favourable for food production. SENTINEL BREAKD AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGU KAPENG KAPTUIYA KAPTUIY KAPUNYA KAPUNY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLIO KOMOLI LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMB YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of November was 13.8. In comparison to the month of October, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 14.4, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month of November. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to improve with the onset of the short rains. Health(Livestock) Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost(October) Livestock lost(November) Kiserian, , , Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats Sheep. 85 goats 133 goats Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Kerio valley Cattle 2 cows 7 cattle Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 45 goats 50 goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats 2 cattle and 7 goats Red water Akoret, Kiserian Cattle Black water Yatya Goats and sheep 35 sheep 172 shoats EDUCATION COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Napur, Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. Chesawach pri schools- lack of teachers 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 within the month of November Non-food interventions Note the following. Boreholes being constructed at Chesekem,and Kipchemoi by county government Vaccination of CCPPPPR is ongoing at Chemoe ,Ngaratuko and Natan areas in Yatya area County government is equipping Kapombo borehole. Baringo North county CDF fenced the Kinyach waterpan Cattle dip construction by County government at Loropil area in Endao is now completed. ACK church renovated Loyeya borehole. Cattle dip construction by County government is ongoing at Seronu near Tangulbei Dispensary construction is ongoing at Keriwok near Komolion Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded World vision constructed water tanks in 2 schools Chemintany and kinyach FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government is constructing cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuya Unimix flour and pumpy nut to all ECDs and Komolion dispensary by County government and WFP respectively. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Slight levels of insecurity incidence involving cattle rustling were reported this month. This can be directly attributed to migrations of cattle which are moving towards their traditional grazing grounds hence triggering encounter between cattle rustlers and herders. So far extensive concerted efforts by all stakeholders promoting peaceful and harmonious cohesion among warring neighbours has been spearheaded. Political wing of the county also played a key role in reconciling their communities so as to share the scarce pastoralist resources peacefully. Establishment of police posts in Kagir and other volatile areas have increasingly deterred cattle raids. These fruitful efforts need to be sustained to ensure perpetual harmonious coexistence among pastoralists in the county. Cattle rustling were reported at Napeitom (TurkanaPokot border) 1 man was killed and livestock stolen by suspected Pokot raiders but all animals were later recovered and the culprits apprehended, In Ngaratuko and Natan (Yatya) 58 goats were stolen and later 42 goats were recovered. The peace, and compensation committees stakeholders especially at this time of grazing convergence zone disengagement needs to be enhanced and sustained to ensure pastoral peaceful coexistence and quick recovery of stolen livestock during raids. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron, ,Akoret 58-shoats 2. Lynx Maron, 7 shoats Hyena Maron, , Akoret 30-shoats Stray dogs Ngambo 12 sheep Leopard Akoret 2 cattle 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were migrations in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently at lower level of medium tending towards Low. Adequate rains were received in the last 4 weeks of November. The highlands and in the low lands both received adequate rainfall which rendered positive impact on environmental indicators. This eventually lead in increase in both livestock and agricultural production resulting in improved food security status in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have increased due to adequate rainfall. The food security situation is at stable level and the County is generally food secure as per the IPC reference table. This might change with the ceasession of Elnino rains. Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR MAY 2015 Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL ALERT WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges of average rainfall (Oct- March, Wajir airport) 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 State of Water Sources Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 29.35 13.33- 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Crops area planted () of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges 21.60 - 15.64 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show no unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. Good rainfall was received in the month above normal range. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is slightly above normal. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: There are decreased livestock migrations in search of water and pasture. Minimum security relatedrestricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition is good and milk production has increased significantly this is expected to improve further due heavy rains received. Access indicators Terms of trade are within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Water in the pans is above normal (70-95) and trekking distances is within normal range. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 14.7 this is slightly below threshold point of Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is at normal due to adequate water availability. The drought indicators generally point towards normal phase. Generally, drought risks are low with an improving trend due to the good rains being received across the county. The security situation has relatively improved in most volatile areas due to peace caravan spearhead by county leaders; however Loruk, Yatya and Chemoe areas reported rampant livestock raids through out the month. Minimal livestock movements improved trade hence increasing food security and reducing drought risks. Drought risks have dropped significantly with the on going long rains MAM pounding the pastoral areas. Drought effects are expected to improve further hence up scaling of preparedness activities is recommended for to enhance resilience building. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value month Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 161.3 (19.8) 201 mm 80-120 (0.03)0.03 (0.02)0.00 -1 to 1 VCI-3month (41.4)36.6 48 (45) 51 35-50 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5 (1 Rib visible) Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.33--36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water Households- trekking distance(km) of water in the water pan 100) Crops area planted for the season () 36760Ha (71) (47,000Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize) LTA 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Occurrence of Water scarce diseases-scabies 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium MAY EW PHASE BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The county received 161.3mm amount of rainfall for an average of 5days a slight drop from that of April which was 190.8mm. Komolion area received the highest amount of 431mm in 7 days. Tamsat RFE cumulated rainfall shows an improving trend for the county, refer the graph-2 below Temperatures are significantly decreasing in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 26 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 29 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge indicates that, the county will generally experience reduced rainfall during the long rains season. The good rains are expected to continue pouring; pasture and browse conditions will improve and hence impact positively on livestock production. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) The current SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are 0.02 and 0.03 respectively compared to the Long term average for Baringo County and east Pokot sub-county were 0.01 and 0.02 respectively. The current values indicate the county received normal rains as well East Pokot sub-county. This is attributed to good rainfall pounding the pastoral areas. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for May for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 39, 36.6 and 41.4 respectively which was slightly above the long term average of 38 for Baringo County and 29 for East Pokot. COUNTY County VCI as at 18th VCI as at 25th BARINGO County 33.29 The vegetation conditions are continuing to improve and are in the normal ranges for the period. Considering that the County usually received some rainfall in JulyAugust, the vegetation condition for the next dry season would probably be within normal ranges Central 31.53 39.04 Eldama 30.84 33.98 Mogotio 30.04 36.61 North 35.31 41.01 South 30.52 35.22 Tiaty 41.42 Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought The graph above shows the vegetation condition for the county expressed as VCI and comparing with the long-term max, min and average recorded in the same period. For May it is within normal conditions range. The matrix above shows that there is progressive improvement in vegetation cover Indices over the last 3 months. Currently that vegetation conditions are at normal for the county index as shown above. The matrix above shows improvement in Tiaty and Mogotio Sub counties. Mogotio which was worst hit by drought is currently at normal vegetation conditions together with Tiaty as shown in the above matrices of the 3-month VCI. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse The browse and pasture condition is fairly good due current heavy rainfall being received across the county. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources is normal due to heavy rainfall pounding the county. Its temporal and spatial distribution was fair. Temperatures have sharply dropped due to constant cloud cover and increased precipitation. Major rivers are fully flowing; this has resulted to recharge of water pans volumes from 50 in April to above 80 in May. This is expected by communities to last beyond long rains season. Main water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is significantly improving in all livelihood zones with all sentinel sites reporting fully flowing rivers and water pans recharge. The heavy rains are expected to maintain the water resource through the long rains season. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership Households owning livestock. LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED CAMEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Almost all livestock in common convergence zones are back home, they are now enjoying available pasture and browse around home grazing lands. This has significantly reduced the tension between neighbouring communities arising from resource sharing issues 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition across the project area has really improved owing to availability of good pasture and browse. The ribs visible are 1-2 in cattle. There were FMD cases in cattle reported in Tangulbei, Churo, Kapenguria and Akoret sentinels and better parts of Baringo North. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases There were FMD cases in cattle reported in Churo, Kapenguria, Akoret and Kapunyany sentinels, but no vaccination exercise have been launched in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kapunyany, Nakoko, Akoret, Endao, Kolloa, Kaptuiya. Kinyach, Kiserian, Yatya, Goats and Sheep. 182- Yatya Yatya, Orus Goats, Sheep and cattle. Orus,Yatya, Kiserian, Kerio river basin, Kinyach, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 5-Yatya Mouth Disease Akoret, Kapunyany and Kapenguria Diarrhoea Kapunyany, Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Mange Yatya , Kolloa Goats 28-Goats Miscarriages Kiserian Goats Nagana Kapenguria, Kiserian Cattle Lumpy skin Kinyach Goats 2.1.5 Milk Production In May, average milk production household increased to 29 from 20 bottles in April bottles which is below the LTA. Milk production increased from 106 bottles to 106 bottles (750 ml bottles). It is highest in the pastoral zone with 293 compared to 50 bottles in Agro pastoral, an increase from last months production of 171 bottles in the pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to increased rainfall thats started improving browsing areas during the month in all livelihood zones especially for camel species. In May, average milk production household amounted to 29 bottles which is below the LTA. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MARCH 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying increased from 600 in April to 605 in May because of upsurge of diseases related to new rains. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Land preparation and planting is over and crops are currently at knee high level. The crop fields now require top dresser to ensure optimum production. This should be emphasized to foster and achieve food security in the county, as most pastoralists participated in crop farming this season 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize crop is at Knee high stage. The food crop- Maize and beans condition is good 2.2.2 Harvest No harvest yet, crops still growing in the field ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 10,423 an increase from Ksh 9,949 in April and goats at Ksh 2,283 an increase from Ksh 2,077 in April. Terms of trade was below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (88), due to falling livestock prices and increasing food prices. In May, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 63, which is well within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle increased from Ksh 9,949 in April to Ksh 10,423 in May. The price increase was attributed to good rains that have improved pasture significantly. The price was higher than the long term mean by 10.6 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 10,613. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the average price of Ksh. 8,900. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average goat price decreased from Ksh. 2,077 in April to Ksh. 2,283 in May showing further appreciation. The price is above the long term mean by 1.7 . Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 3,000 owing to improved pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price increased from Ksh. 1,197 in April to Ksh. 2,051 in May showing appreciation. The price was higher than the long term mean by 43.2 . Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,900 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1,300. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales in camels. 1 Camel was sold at an average price of Ksh 35,000 an increase from Ksh 12,850 price of April owing to improving browse conditions. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle is Ksh 47. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per Kg during the month was Ksh 45, it increased from April which retailed at Ksh 42. The average price was at par with the long term mean. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 49 an increase from month of April which retailed at Ksh 47. The increase of maize prices is attributed to rampant cattle raids that have hampered local market access. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average price of Posho per kg during the month was Ksh 52, an increase from Ksh 49 in April. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 56) this is attributed to inaccessibility to local markets due to insecurity. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for (Ksh 45) due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. The price of Posho is at par with that of a normal year. 3.2.3 Beans The average price of beans per kg during the month was Ksh 106 Ksh 1 more than that of April. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh.108) and lowest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh. 100) owing to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption Milk consumption by household members increased in all livelihood zones. The average consumption increased from an average of 74 bottles to 100 bottles (Livelihood zones). The increase is attributed to increase in amount of milk produced especially from camels. Milk consumption is highest in pastoral zone at 162 bottles compared to 37 in Agro pastoral. The average consumption per household is 18 litres for March. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of April 2015 In May, the average milk consumptionhousehold amounted to approx. 27 Litres, which is below normal for the period. Table above shows that the indicator for May 2015 is below the LTA. 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability increased good rains pounding the area. Temperatures are also significantly decreasing. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch Kakir, Nawe, Kwarkwarian in Yatya, Karun in Barpello, Chemitany,Napetot, Kopombo in Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa, Kinyach area. Orusion (Maron) Kapunyany Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany ,Orusion, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization o The current average distance (in km) from households to main water sources is 2.3 km, which decreased from last months 3.1km. This is slightly below normal. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance for May decreased from 5.3 km to 3.7 km. This is attributed to heavy rainfall during the month. o Pastoral all species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 5.3 km) a decrease from last months 7.9 km and more than Irrigated cropping ( 0.7 km), previous month was 1.5 Km. 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a sharp decrease in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 18.7 in April to 14.7 in May; Komolion is leading with 38.2 an increase from 34.7 last month. The overall drop is as a result of availability of milk at the household level is largely attributed to improving livestock milk production especially in Orus area. Katikit registered increased malnutrition due to disruption of market accessibility around Chemolingot and Nginyang markets. The level of malnutrition was above the long term mean at this time of the year as shown by the current MUAC 135 as a percentage. SENTINEL TREND JANUARY BREAKDOWN TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm In May 2015, the average MUAC value for the overall county amounts to 14.7. This is below the LTA for May. Malnutrition levels MUAC, the countys average MUAC is below long term average at this time of the year. Health Disease Areas Reported MALARIA Akoret , Maron, Katikit, Komolion, Kiserian, Kolloa, Kapenguria, Endao, Orus. Kapunyany, Kinyach, Yatya, Kaptuya, Nakoko, Loiwat, Ngambo DIARHOEA Akoret, Kiserian, TYPHOID Ngambo,Yatya, Akoret, Kiserian, Katikit, Kapenguria, Kapunyany, Kinyach, BRUCELLOSIS Kiserian, Yatya, FLUCOLD Komolion, Kinyach, Maron, Yatya, Loiwat, Kolloa Yatya AMOEBA Kiserian, Kapunyany Kolloa MUMPS Ngambo Education 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.3 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. Expansion of irrigated crop production under irrigated agriculture. Promotion of drought tolerant crops (THVC). Water harvesting for crop production (water pans) 1 Cattle dip being constructed by County Government of Baringo in Yatya Borehole being constructed by AIC Kenya in Kapunyany. 2 FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo Loruk-Yatya road have been graded by County government County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government provided farm inputs to 157 households in Kinyach Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. GFD through Presidency 46,200 (At 50 food ratio but only receiving 16 of allocation for two out of the three target months.) Schools meals program- 1 mealchildday 40 Schools. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. Trocaire FFA through Barpello mission targeting 100 household in Tilingwo and Chepkererat Sub locations. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children Action aid relief food Komolion- 5 bags of beans, Loyeya- 9 bags of beans and each ECD schools got 50kg County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE. EAST POKOT Chesetim, Korelach, Adomeyon and Ngaina in Ngoron due to insecurity. Napur, Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. BARINGO NORTH Rormoch, Karimo, Koindoi, Chemoe Rondinin, Ngaratuko, Kakir, Kamencho nursery, Moinonin, Barketiew, Koibaware, Yatya and Sibilo in Yatya. Kinyach Boarding and day Primary due to insecurity Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Cattle raids were reported constantly in Yatya, Chemoi, Ngaratuko and Kapturo in Baringo North Sub-county. In April, a total of 29 cattle were stolen, 1 person was injured. A retired chief was shot and killed by bandits in Loruk centre, this triggered retaliatory attacks where shops were burnt down in Loruk. Insecurity incidences were also reported near Marigat area- Ilchamus Tugen borders where scores of shoats were stolen. Quick security intervention is needed to arrest this escalating situation. Rampant vehicle attacks along Marigat Loruk road has greatly disrupted businesses in East Pokot, where the main livestock markets are adversely affected due to inaccessibility and security fears by external livestock traders. This has resulted into revenue loss of millions of shillings usually generated at the markets. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been some migration in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to increased cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). On going insecurity around 2000 people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir areas have moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa and are in dire need of humanitarian support. The people that were affected and displaced from Arabal, Mochongoi and Kapindasum area most have slowly returned to their homes. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis There is good pasture and browse condition due to the setting in of heavy rains. This has increased livestock production. Livestock body condition has improved hence improved market prices. Child malnutrition has also dropped significantly as a result of increased availability of milk. Water sources have fully recharged as a result it has reduced household to water points distance. Insecurity has posed risk to markets and trade especially in East Pokot where local markets have been closed due rampant cattle rustling. Recommendations Residents in conflict cattle rustling prone areas need more security personnel deployed especially at a time when there is rampant raiding and displacement of communities. Residents request for forceful disarmament to mop up illegal weapon in the hands of bandits,however say that there is very slow response from the government. There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. iii. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) iv. Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. v. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. vi. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS,ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices increase 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking schoolshealth centres closed water shortage schools report increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 sites MUAC15 Average county Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving friendships, a visitations service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2015 Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL ALERT WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges of average rainfall (Oct- March, Wajir airport) 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 State of Water Sources Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 29.35 13.33- 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Crops area planted () of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges 21.60 - 15.64 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: EARLY ALERT Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show no unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. Good rainfall was received only in the last week of month above normal range. The rest part of July was so dry The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is above normal. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: They were livestock migrations towards Mukutani volatile area in search of water and pasture especially from Orus area. Minimum security related restricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition slightly deteriorated and milk production remained unchanged, but it is expected to improve with the setting in of rains experienced in the last week of July. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Water in the pans is below normal (60) and trekking distances is within normal range. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 15.1 this is slightly threshold point of 15. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal due to rampant usage of contaminated water. Most drought indicators point towards early alert phase. Generally, drought risks remained low with a worsening trend due to the failed rains in July. The security situation has really improved in most volatile areas due to peace caravan spearhead by National cohesion and reconciliation team. There were minimal livestock movements hence improving trade and food security. Drought risks slightly deteriorated in the month due to effects of failed rains. Drought effects are expected to improve with July- August rains being experienced late in the month hence the community resilience building is recommended through preparedness activities. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL NO CHANGE COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value month Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 174.8 (97.1) 180 mm 80-120 (0.03)0.03 (0.02)0.00 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 66 (65)60 53 (51) 57 35-50 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition visible) Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water Households- trekking distance(km) of water in the water pan Crops area planted for the season () 36760Ha (71) (47,000Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize) LTA 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Occurrence of Water scarce diseases-scabies 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium JULY EW PHASE BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The county did not receive any rainfall till the last week of July where 174.8 mm of rainfall for an average of 6 days was recorded in 5 stations. Kinyach area received the highest amount of 399mm in 7 days. The 2015 rainfall trend so far follows the long term averages trends consistently. Temperatures are slightly increased in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 29 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 34 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge forecasts an increased rainfall in the month of August. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) NB July SPI data have not provided. It will be shared when availed The May SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county were 0.02 and 0.03 respectively compared to the Long term average for Baringo County and east Pokot sub-county were 0.01 and 0.02 respectively. Generally, SPI was below long term average from Jan-March but has since increased to above LTA and better than this time last year. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for June for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 66, 60 and 64 respectively which was slightly above the long term averages. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY County VCI as at 20th VCI as at 27th BARINGO County 68.41 66.21 Good vegetation conditions in all sub-counties (above normal) Central 81.77 81.32 Eldama 69.32 72.36 Mogotio 63.74 North 72.81 South 63.56 60.93 Tiaty 67.69 64.47 The information that was provided above indicate excellent vegetation condition in all sub-counties, this was true situation in all other sub counties apart from Tiaty, Baringo North and South where failed July rains adversely affected the vegetation condition resulting to wilting of crops in Agro pastoral (Kinyach, Tangulbei, Churo, Kaptuiya, Mochongoi) and pastoral livelihood zones (Larger Nginyang and Mondi area, Kolloa and Lower Kerio region). The poor pasture and browse conditions observed during field visits also confirmed the poor vegetation situations in these sub counties. The graph above shows the vegetation condition for the county expressed as VCI and comparing with the long-term max, min and average recorded in the same period. For June it is above normal conditions range, a steady improvement as from May and a slight depressed vegetation condition was recorded in July. The matrix above shows there was depressed vegetation growth at the beginning of the Long Rains seasonMAM,but has since steadily recovered to above normal but slightly depressed from that of June due to a prolonged dry spell that was experienced in the month of July causing almost a total crop loss in pastoral livelihood zones . The matrix above shows 3 month VCI is above normal, but a slight drop from that of June in Tiaty and Mogotio Sub counties. Mogotio which was worst hit by drought in March and April is still at above normal vegetation conditions. However NDMA field visits confirmed massive crop wilting in Tiaty due to delayed rains in the month of July. Good rains were just received the whole last week of July. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse The browse and pasture condition in agro pastoral zones is fairly good, however in pastoral zones it is poor and this is attributed to aggravation by poor pasture regeneration occasioned by poor reseeding during just ended (MAM) long rains prolonged dry spell in the month of July across the county. However the anticipated August rains started early; last week of July and its impact on pasture and browse is expected in the next month. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources has decreased due failed rains in July. Its temporal and spatial distribution was poor. Temperatures steadily increased during the month due to scourging sunrays across sentinel sites. The failed rains in July decreased water pans volumes to less than 60. Main water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is poor in all livelihood zones with more than 4 sentinel sites reporting water borne diarrhoeal cases. The heavy rains are expected to maintain the water resource through the long rains season. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership Livelihood livestock ownership. LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED CAMEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 17,012 in June to 18,164 this month. This is attributed to minimal livestock movements which encouraged stock breeding. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Livestock especially from Orus had started moving towards Mukutani and Arabal in search for pasture, and those from Maron were moving towards Katikit, Chemsik and Kalabata. This usually causes resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing dialogues agreements need to be negotiated to prevent perennial flare ups at Arabal, Mukutani and Rugus convergence zones. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition across the pastoral and agro pastoral zones area deteriorated owing to fast diminished pasture and browse as it had not regenerated properly due to low pasture reseeding especially in Orus and area. The ribs visible are 2-3 in cattle. FMD cases in cattle that were fast spreading in the following areas Akoret, Ngaina, Ptikii and Chepkirial in Ngoron the county veterinary team have already taken blood samples for testing. . Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases FMD cases in cattle were reported in Churo, Kapenguria, and Kapunyany sentinels, the county veterinary team is already addressing it. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolloa, Loiwat, Endao, Yatya, Goats and Sheep. 166- Yatya Yatya, Kapunyany, Endao Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 3-Yatya Mouth Disease Kolloa, Kapunyany and Kapenguria Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Mange Yatya , Kolloa Goats Miscarriages Yatya Goats Lumpy skin Kinyach Goats 2.1.5 Milk Production In June, average milk production household remained to 33 in July which was below the LTA of 45 bottles. Milk production increased from 129 bottles to 146 bottles (750 ml bottles). It is highest in the pastoral zone with 357 compared to 74 bottles in Agro pastoral, an increase from last months production of 302 bottles in the pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to increased camel milk production in the sentinel sites. In July, average milk production household amounted remained at 33 bottles which is below the LTA. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MARCH 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying decreased from 540 in June to 525 in July due to decrease of disease incidences. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Generally, crops that were doing very well in the April June have suddenly wilted in all pastoral areas due to prolonged delay of July rains, the lower sides of East Pokot, Churo, Tangulbei and Kinyach which are agro pastoral livelihood zones have lost a large proportion (55-75) of the crop due to massive wilting. Reports from Mogotio and Eldama ravine sub counties indicate of crop loss of around (30-40) in agro pastoral and mixed cropping zones. It should be recommended for the pastoralists to feed their livestock with these totally wilted maize crops in order to gain salvage value of the crops in form of fodder. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize crop is generally post tasselingpollination stage but delayed rains affected the especially in pockets of pastoral areas. The agro pastoral zone is fairly well as some portion -about 30 of the food crop- maize and beans survived the July dry spell. The late July rains that started a few days ago is expected to sustain he remaining crops to maturity especially in mixed cropping zones and agro pastoral areas 2.2.2 Harvest No harvest yet, crops still in the field ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 11,646 an increase from Ksh 10,648 in May and goats at Ksh 2,154 a decrease from Ksh 2,591 in June. Terms of trade was below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (71), due to falling livestock prices and increasing food prices. In July, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 67 which is an increase from 57 attributed to slight falling of shoat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a fairly good purchasing power by livestock producers 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle increased from Ksh 10,648 in June to Ksh 11,646 in July. The price increase was attributed to appreciation to availability of good external markets. The price was higher than the long term mean by 16.6 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 13,159. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the average price of Ksh. 10,133. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average goat price increased from Ksh. 2,591 in June to Ksh. 2,154 in July showing depreciation attributed due poor browse conditions in the month. The price is above the long term mean by 13.5 . Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,189 owing to poor pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price increased from Ksh. 2,274 in June to Ksh. 1,870 in July showing depreciation. The price was higher than the long term mean by 30 . Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,238 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1,502. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales in camels. 3 camels were sold at an average price of Ksh 37,333 an increase from Ksh 17,933 price of June owing to market appreciation. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle is Ksh 37. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per Kg during the month dropped to Ksh 44. The average price was below the long term mean. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 47 a decrease from that of June. The drop in maize prices is attributed to increasingly availability in the local markets. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average price of Posho per kg during the month also dropped to Ksh 52 from Ksh 53 in June. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 47) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for (Ksh 45) due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. The price of Posho is slightly below that of a normal year. 3.2.3 Beans The average price of beans per kg during the month dropped to Ksh 105 Ksh 8 less than that of June. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh.112) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption Milk consumption by household members slightly decreased in all livelihood zones. The average consumption increased from an average of 118 bottles to 133 bottles (Livelihood zones). The increase is attributed to increase in amount of milk produced mainly from camels. Milk consumption is highest in pastoral zone at 325 bottles compared to 66 in Agro pastoral. The average consumption per household is 30 litres for July. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of July 2015 In July, the average milk consumptionhousehold amounted to approx. 30 Litres, which is below normal for the period as shown in the table above. 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability was poor. Temperatures also significantly increased. Water pans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Ngaratuko ,Barsuswo, Nawe, Natan in Yatya, Orusion (Maron), Karun Barpello, Chemintany,Napetot, Kopombo Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa,. Orusion (Maron) Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany ,Orusion, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization o The current average distance from households to main water sources is 2.7 km, which slightly increased from last months 2.5 km due to failed rains in the better part of July. This is below normal. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance for June further increased from 4 km to 4.5 km. This is attributed to lack of rains in the month to sustain the little pasture that had regenerated during last long rains season hence causing further migrations in search of pasture. Pastoral all species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 6.3 km) an increase from last months 5.3 km and more than Irrigated cropping ( 1.2 km), previous month which was 1.7 Km. 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a further increase in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 14.3 in June to 15.1 in July this is due increased diarrhoeal cases in children across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.6 as slight decrease from that of last month. Kinyach area registered a significant decrease of malnutrition cases from 23.9 in June to 10.2 in July due milk availability. The overall drop is as a result of declining livestock production and access of food commodities availability of milk at the household level. Ngambo, orus and Kapenguria recorded increased malnutrition due to rampant diarrhoeal cases in 90 children less than five years. Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm In July 2015, the average MUAC value for the overall county amounts to 15.1. This is below the LTA for July. Malnutrition levels MUAC, the countys average MUAC is below long term average at this time of the year. SENTINEL TREND MUAC JUN BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURI KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Health Disease Areas Reported MALARIA Nakoko, Akoret , Maron, Katikit, Komolion, Kiserian, Kolloa, Kapenguria, Endao, Orus. Kapunyany, Kinyach, Yatya, Kaptuya, Komolion, Loiwat, Ngambo DIARHOEA Orus, Nakoko, Akoret, Kiserian, Kapenguria, Maron, Kolloa TYPHOID Kiserian,Ngambo, Yatya, Endao, Katikit, Kapenguria BRUCELLOSIS Yatya, FLUCOLD Ngambo, Kinyach, Maron, Yatya, Loiwat, Kolloa AMOEBA Kiserian CHICKEN POX Kiserian SCABIES Kiserian EDUCATION 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. County government is upgrading Kipcherere- Sibilo County government is constructing a cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuyay County government is upgrading buildings at Kaptuya community wildlife conservancy. County government is also grading Churo Lolkos road Borehole being constructed by AIC Kenya in Kapunyany. Promotion of drought tolerant crops (THVC). Water harvesting for crop production (water pans) 1 Cattle dip being constructed by County Government of Baringo in Yatya 2 FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo Loruk-Yatya road have been graded by County government County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government provided farm inputs to 157 households in Kinyach County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded Expansion of irrigated crop production under irrigated agriculture. Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. Schools meals program- 1 mealchildday 40 Schools. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE. EAST POKOT Adomeyon,Chesetim, Korelach, and Ngaina in Ngoron due to water and food. Napur, Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. BARINGO NORTH Kapsepeiwa,Roroch, Karimo, Koindoi, Chemoe, Rondinin, Ngaratuko, Kakir, Kamencho nursery, Moinonin, Barketiew, Koibaware, Yatya and Sibilo in Yatya. Kinyach Boarding and day Primary due to insecurity BARINGO SOUTH Losampurmpur, Loitip, Lorok due to lack of water Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Cattle raids have decreased significantly for a few months now. In July, these peaceful disengagements and cohesion efforts were boosted by the national cohesion and reconciliation team further visited the volatile hotspots in the project area preaching harmony and peaceful coexistence between neighbouring communities. Police posts have also been established in Kagir and also proposed for Kadingding area near Pakka hills, these efforts by the National and county government is to enhance presence of security personnel at the epicentre of cattle rustling. This is remarkable move that will ensure security is restored in these areas. Nevertheless, during the month 40 cattle were stolen in Yatya and but were later recovered. 53 camels were also stolen from Turkana by suspected Pokot raiders and already 11 recovered by reformed Pokot worriers to avoid fare ups along Kapedo Turkana - Baringo county border. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There was minimal in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to reduced cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis There is poor pasture and browse condition especially in pastoral zones. This has adversely affected livestock production. Livestock body condition is deteriorating hence affecting market prices. Child malnutrition has s increased due to increase of waterborne diarrhoeal cases. Water sources have fully recharged as a result it has reduced household to water points distance. Insecurity has really affected markets and trade especially in East Pokot where local markets are still closed due rampant cattle rustling. Recommendations Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. Residents in conflict cattle rustling prone areas need more security personnel deployed especially at a time when there is rampant raiding and displacement of communities. Residents request for forceful disarmament to mop up illegal weapon in the hands of bandits, however say that there is very slow response from the government. iii. There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. iv. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) v. Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. vi. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. vii. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasararani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of Akoret, Malaso, Silale,Paka, Orus, Tangulbei, Kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasarani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS, ranchers, RugusArabalMakutani, Kasarani, Laikipia, Samburu, LoiwatKinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS,ranchers, RugusArabalMakutani, Kasarani, Laikipia, Samburu, LoiwatKinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices increase 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking schoolshealth centres closed water shortage schools report increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 sites MUAC15 Average county Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving friendships, a visitations service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2015 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 200 mm received within the month of November. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges.VCI-3 month for Baringo, Tiaty and Mogotio is above normal ranges hence indicating Normal conditions. This is attributed to on-going short rains Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are still within their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of water and pasture in these areas. Livestock body condition is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is above normal ranges. Attributed to available pasture and water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have reduced. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15.Improvement compared to last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal due to adequate water and not contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 200(182) 80-120 SPI1M(November ) 0.77(0.52)1.07 (0.04)0.03 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 53(45)55 50 (55) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 43987Ha(maize) 21527Ha(Beans) LTA (38550Ha) LTA(22859Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by September) Not provided 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Medium The drought risk situation is currently low but expected to improve further if the current rains extends to January 2016. This had made the situation improve across all livelihood zones as there were regeneration of pasture and forage. In addition levels of water in pans increased. If the rains continue, water levels are expected to improve further. DECEMBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 200.00 mm within the 4th week of December. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 147.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Heavy down pour was mainly received in the highlands especially Kabartonjo and Kipsaraman areas. In the sentinel sites, water availability improved substantially due to water pan recharge and river flows Temperatures recorded dropped significantly during the month to (21-26ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2. In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 94.00 mm within the month of December. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 45.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 68.00 mm within the month of December. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 40.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a bove normal trend during this period of the year. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) . The November SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal because of adequate rainfall in the last 4 weeks of November. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for December for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 53, 45 and 55 respectively all were above the respective long term averages 50 (55) 45 for the month and also above the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig 5 below. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole between Novembers to December. This calls upon preparations for the oncoming dry spell. Community members need to be trained to use food reserves well so as to avoid acute shortage in the next season. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY Sub County VCI as at December BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties are at normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on a normal trend due to the on-going short rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates wet conditions in Baringo County, projected to change with the onset of the dry spell early next year. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions with notable improving trend due to on-going rains in December which will necessitate the improvement of pasture and browse in all livelihood zones zones. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 53.44. this is due to on-going short rains. This is on an improving trend compared to the month of November. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continues. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 55 of growth attributed to on-going Short Rains, but on improving trend compared to the month of November. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continues. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig 10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 45 of growth attributed to on-going Short Rains. This is an improvement compared to the month of November. This is attributed to November rains. This trend is expected to improve further if the current El nino rains continues. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition is currently good in the Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. The current good forage condition in all livelihood zones is a result of on-going short rains experienced in the county. Current forage is estimated to last for one to two months. With the onset of the short rains, most herds are migrating towards the traditional grazing grounds because of available water and pasture. Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County is currently normal. In comparison to the month of October, the quantity of pasture and browse within the County has improved and this is attributed to on- going showers currently being experienced across the County. This has supported regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The overall conditions are reflecting improving scenario and may sustain for the next 2 months if the present conditions prevails. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources With the on-going short rains, water levels have improved in water reservoirs and currently there is enough water for both livestock and domestic needs. Water stress is currently minimal in Pastoral-All species and some part of Agro-Pastoral livelihoods. Most of the catchment poolsnatural ponds have recharged while the volumes in the pans have increased due to rainfall being experienced. The month of December received relatively good rains. Its spatial and temporal distribution is good with all sub counties reporting heavy showers resulting to fast water surface run offs that eroded most rural roads for instance Kokwa toto Tangulbei road, Orus - Akwichatis roads. Kokwa Toto water pan was also damaged by raging waters. Heavy down pour was mainly received in the highlands especially Kabartonjo and Kipsaraman areas. Generally in all sentinel sites, water availability improved substantially due to water pan recharge and river flows .This supplemented the borehole as the main water sources across pastoral areas especially East Pokot Sub county. Temperatures recorded dropped significantly during the month to (210-260celsius). The water pan capacity average is at above 70. The on-going rains are expected to further improve water availability and access. Water quantity and quality remained good by the 3rd week of December in all livelihood zones with more than 5 sentinel sites reporting reduction in water borne diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11.Source NDMA MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 21,867 in November to 22,293 in December. This is attributed to lambing period which has been boosted by favourable climatic conditions and the fact that most livestock have migrated back to their traditional grazing grounds. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Due to availability of pasture and water in traditional grazing grounds, livestock have migrated back to their traditional grazing grounds. Pastoralists who were accessing pasture, browse and water in their fall back dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) are heading back home. Pastoralists who were at Laikipia ranches are also migrating towards Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha, Tangulbei , Mukutani and Arabal. Pastoralists who were at Kasarani and Kandugoi along Turkana border are migrating back to traditional grazing grounds of Lower Kerio. Pastoralists who were at Kalabata and Chemoe are heading back to traditional grazing grounds of Maron and Kositei. These seasonal migrations do trigger cattle rustling and Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period therefore peace and reconciliation committee and administration police need to put measures in place to minimise such incidences which are already being experienced in some areas 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods but fair in pastoral livelihood zones. This is attributed to availability of water and pastures hence livestock dont walk long distances in search of water, pasture and browse. This has also been supported by availability of sufficient rainfall that supported regeneration of pasture. Generally,1 ribs visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.12.Source NDMA 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, CBPP,ECF, Trypanosomiasis and worms remained endemic across the livelihood zones. CCPP cases in cattle were reported in Kiserian Kolloa, Kiptuya, Endao, Yatya and Akoret though vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kiserian, , , Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats and Sheep. 133 goats Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Kerio valley Cattle 7 cattle Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 50 goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats 2 cattle and 7 goats Red water Akoret, Kiserian Cattle Black water Yatya Goats and sheep 172 shoats Fig.12 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 39 bottles (750ml) in the month of December 2015 compared to 37 bottles (750ml) of the month of November. There was an increase in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far below normal average of 47 bottles. This increase is attributed to the availability of rainfall which has led to availability of water and regeneration of browse and pasture. Fig.13. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths DECEMBER 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 2 355 TOTAL 2 433 Fig.14. The total livestock units dying remained the same at 433 in December due to predation and livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Farmers across all livelihood zones were sceptical on pre El nino agricultural advisories and many did not plant crops to take advantage of the rains, However, in Kinyach area farmers planted peas, beans and water melons and are now weeding is on-going. The maize crop under Kolloa irrigation scheme is at tussling stage. Acreage under maize was negligible and only in the mixed farming zone of Baringo Central sub county. Most farmers planted beans in the mixed and irrigated livelihood zones. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers had prepared their farms and planted their crops which have started growing. Crops that were planted in mid-October are now above the ground and most farmers within Agro-pastoral livelihoods are doing their second weeding. Crops that were planted early will start flowering from 2nd week of December to 4th week of December. Incidences of MLND reported at Mogotio irrigated areas. 2.2.2 Harvest No current harvest reported apart from water melons harvested within Irrigated and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Honey harvesting spotted in areas like Akoret. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh.12,762 an increase from Ksh.12,607 in November and goats at Ksh.2,762 an increase from Ksh.2,539 in November. Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (60), due to increasing livestock prices and increasing food prices. Fig.15. In December, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 47 which is a slight increase from 45 attributed to slight increasing of goat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.16 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh.12, 762 in December. Compared to the month of November (12,506), the prices increased. This is attributed to market dynamics and given that the body of cattle has improved. The prices were below the long term mean of Ksh.13, 970 as shown on the graph. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh.13, 438. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.17. The average price of a goat in the month of December was Kshs.2, 762. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2, 539. The prices in December increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 500 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. Fig.18. The average sheep price increased from Ksh.2, 348 in November to Ksh.2, 378 in December showing upward trend. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 866. The increase in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Irrigated cropping species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 3,000 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh.1, 686. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of November, 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh.35, 000 an increase from Ksh. 22,000 price of November owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh. 37 within the month of December a decrease from Ksh.47 of the month of November. This is attributed to market dynamics. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.19. The average maize price per kilogram for the month of December was Kshs.41. In comparison to the month of November where the average price per kilogram of maize was Kshs.39, the prices have increased by the end of December. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are the same as the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.45 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.20. The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of December was Kshs.47. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Kshs.46, the prices have remained stable by the end of December. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral-All Species livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh.40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.21. The average beans price per kilogram for the month of December was Kshs.101. In comparison to the month of November, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.94, the prices have increased by the end of December. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the Pastoral-All species livelihood zone (Ksh.103) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 34 bottles (750 ml) in the month of December. In comparison to the month of November, where the average milk consumed per household was 34 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level has remained stable within the month of December. This is attributed to Short rains which are currently on-going. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 40 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of December 2015 Fig.22. 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last two weeks the water availability was good. Temperatures also significantly decreased. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Nawe,kwarkwarian,kakir in Yatya,chuwuwai in Akoret Natan,Barsuswo,NgaratukoChepkoi,Solar borehole at Akoret,Oruson in Maron the hand pump is brocken Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support, Solar borehole near Kapedo was vandalized during insecurity not yet repaired Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.23. 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.24. The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of December was 2.1 kilometres. In comparison to the month of November where distances covered from the households to the main water sources was 2.3 Kilometres, the distances have decreased. This is attributed to on-going short rains which have made major sources of water to recharge. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.25. Grazing distance decreased from 4.3 km in November to 3.8 km in December. This is attributed to on- going short rains which were adequate to regenerated pasture and browse. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 5.8 km) and more than Irrigated cropping ( 0.8 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 13.8 in November to 13 in December, this can be attributed to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 37 a slight increament from that of last month. Endao area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases by 2.8 in December and Kolloa recorded the highest reduction of malnutrition cases by 9.2. The overall downward trend is as a result of higher number of household having access to basic food requirements as the current climatically conditions are favourable for food production. SENTINEL BREAKD AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGU KAPEN GURIA KAPTUIY KAPTUI KAPUNYA KAPUN KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYAC KISERIAN KISERIA KOLLOA KOLLOA LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOK NGAMBO NGAMB YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 14.33 13.76 TOTAL Fig.26 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm Fig. 27. The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of December was 13. In comparison to the month of November, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13.8, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month of December. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to improve with the onset of the short rains. Health (Livestock) Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost(October) Livestock lost(November) Kiserian, , , Kolloa, Kaptuya, Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats Sheep. 85 goats 133 goats Kapunyany, Cattle Endao, Yatya, Akoret Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kinyach, Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Kerio valley Cattle 2 cows 7 cattle Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 45 goats 50 goats Lumpy Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats 2 cattle and 7 goats Red water Akoret, Kiserian Cattle Black water Yatya Goats sheep 35 sheep 172 shoats EDUCATION 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.3 within the month of December 5.0 ONGOING INTERVENTIONS Non-food interventions Note the following. Boreholes being constructed at Chesekem,and Kipchemoi by county government Vaccination of CCPPPPR is ongoing at Chemoe ,Ngaratuko and Natan areas in Yatya area County government is equipping Kapombo borehole. Baringo North county CDF fenced the Kinyach waterpan Cattle dip construction by County government at Loropil area in Endao is now completed. ACK church renovated Loyeya borehole. Cattle dip construction by County government is ongoing at Seronu near Tangulbei Dispensary construction is ongoing at Keriwok near Komolion Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded World vision constructed water tanks in 2 schools Chemintany and kinyach FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government is constructing cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuya Unimix flour and pumpy nut to all ECDs and Komolion dispensary by County government and WFP respectively. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Slight levels of insecurity incidence involving cattle rustling were reported this month. This can be directly attributed to migrations of cattle which are moving towards their traditional grazing grounds hence triggering encounter between cattle rustlers and herders. So far extensive concerted efforts by all stakeholders promoting peaceful and harmonious cohesion among warring neighbours has been spearheaded. Political wing of the county also played a key role in reconciling their communities so as to share the scarce pastoralist resources peacefully. Establishment of police posts in Kagir and other volatile areas have increasingly deterred cattle raids. These fruitful efforts need to be sustained to ensure perpetual harmonious coexistence among pastoralists in the county. SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT All schools are currently closed due to December holidays Cattle rustling were reported at Napeitom (TurkanaPokot border) 1 man was killed and livestock stolen by suspected Pokot raiders but all animals were later recovered and the culprits apprehended, In Ngaratuko and Natan (Yatya) 58 goats were stolen and later 42 goats were recovered. The peace, and compensation committees stakeholders especially at this time of grazing convergence zone disengagement needs to be enhanced and sustained to ensure pastoral peaceful coexistence and quick recovery of stolen livestock during raids. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Akoret,Maron 52 goats,20 Maron 10 goats,3 sheep Hyena Akoret,Maron 23 sheeps,27 goats Stray dogs Maron 7 goats,1 sheep Leopard Akoret 3 cattle, 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no migrations in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to availability of water and pasture in traditional grazing grounds. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently at lower level of medium tending towards Low. Adequate rains were received in the last 4 weeks of November. The highlands and in the low lands both received adequate rainfall which rendered positive impact on environmental indicators. This eventually led to an increase in both livestock and agricultural production resulting in improved food security status in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have increased due to adequate rainfall. The food security situation is at stable level and the County is generally food secure as per the IPC reference table. This might change with the ceasession of Elnino rains. Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR AUGUST 2015 Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL ALERT WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges of average rainfall (Oct- March, Wajir airport) 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 State of Water Sources Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 29.35 13.33- 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Crops area planted () of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges 21.60 - 15.64 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show no unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. Good rainfall was received early in the month, but depressed later in the month. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is above normal. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: They were livestock migrations towards Arabal and Mukutani volatile area in search of water and pasture especially from Amaya and Orus area. Minimum security relatedrestricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition is good and milk production improved slightly, it is expected to improve further with the predicted El nino rains from early October. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Water in the pans is above normal (70-90) and trekking distances is within normal range. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 14.8 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal due to rampant usage of contaminated water. Most drought indicators point towards normal phase. Generally, drought risks remained low with an improving trend due to the good rains in late July and early in August. The security situation improved in most volatile areas due to concerted efforts to peace building caravan spearhead by National cohesion and reconciliation team and county government. There were minimal livestock movements hence improving trade and food security. Drought risks slightly improved in the month due to effects of good rains. Drought effects are expected to improve with predicted El nino rains from the month of October. Preparedness activities are recommended to improve community resilience building. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL NO CHANGE COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value month Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 48 (23) 206 mm 80-120 (0.03)0.03 (0.02)0.00 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 56 (54)49 55 (51) 56 35-50 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (1-Rib visible) Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water Households- trekking distance(km) of water in the water pan 100) Crops area planted for the season () 36760Ha (71) (47,000Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize) LTA 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Occurrence of Water scarce diseases-scabies 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium AUGUST EW PHASE BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The county received very little rainfall of 48 mm of rainfall for an average of 1 day was recorded in 5 stations which far below normal for the month by 23. Komolion area received the highest amount of 115mm in 2 days. The spatial and temporal distribution was very poor in the month of August. Temperatures are remained high in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 29 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 34 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge forecasts an increased rainfall in the next two months. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) NB July SPI data have not provided. It will be shared when availed The May SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county were 0.02 and 0.03 respectively compared to the Long term average for Baringo County and east Pokot sub-county were 0.01 and 0.02 respectively. Generally, SPI was below long term average from Jan-March but has since increased to above LTA and better than this time last year. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for August for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 56, 54 and 49 respectively which was slightly above the long term averages. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY County VCI as at 15th August VCI as at 27th August BARINGO County 60.33 55.89 Good vegetation conditions in all sub-counties (above normal) only Tiaty sub county is at normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on declining trend due to poor rainfall received in the month. Central 75.83 72.13 Eldama 75.77 76.18 Mogotio 55.94 53.59 North 66.57 62.89 South 55.28 50.68 Tiaty 55.52 49.11 The information that was provided above indicate good vegetation condition in all sub-counties with notable declining trend due to poor August which affected the vegetation condition resulting to wilting of crops in Agro pastoral (Kinyach, Tangulbei, Churo, Kaptuiya, Mochongoi) and pastoral livelihood zones (Larger Nginyang and Mondi area, Kolloa and Lower Kerio region). The poor pasture and browse conditions. The graph above shows the vegetation condition for the county expressed as VCI and comparing with the long-term max, min and average recorded in the same period. For August it is above normal conditions range, but on a declining trend as compared from that of July. The matrix above shows there was depressed vegetation growth at the beginning of the Long Rains seasonMAM,but has since steadily recovered to above normal but slightly depressed from that of July due poor rains that was experienced in the month of August causing total crop loss in pastoral livelihood zones . The matrix above shows 3 month VCI is above normal, but a slight drop from that of July in all Sub counties. Mogotio which was worst hit by drought in March and April is still at above normal vegetation conditions. However NDMA field visits confirmed massive crop wilting in Tiaty due to poor rainfall received. Good rains were just received the whole last week of July. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Pasture and browse condition improved slightly in the month. The vegetation cover greenness improved. The livestock body also improved. However, the failed rains in Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei have forced animal movements from these areas towards, Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal in search for pasture. This usually ignites resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing agreements needs to be negotiated to curb perennial flare ups at convergence zones. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources really changed in the month of August due to good rains late in July and early August. Its temporal and spatial distribution was poor. Upper regions (Churo anad Tangulbei) of the county did not receive rains Temperatures remained high during the month due to scourging sunrays across sentinel sites. The good rains late in July and early August increased water pans volumes to above 70. Main water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is still poor in all livelihood zones with more than 4 sentinel sites reporting water borne diarrhoeal cases. The predicted El nino rains are expected to maintain the water resource through the short rains season. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED CAMEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 18,164 in July to 18,799 this month. This is attributed to minimal livestock movements which encouraged stock breeding. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns The failed rains in Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha and Tangulbei have forced animal movements from these areas towards, Laikipia ranches, Mukutani and Arabal in search for pasture. This usually ignites resource based conflicts and therefore resource sharing agreements needs to be negotiated to curb perennial flare ups at convergence zones. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county improved owing to slight improvement in pasture and browse regeneration occasioned by good rains received late July to early August. Generally, the ribs visible are 1-3 in cattle. FMD cases in cattle that were reported in the following areas Kolloa and Ngoron despite vaccination campaign undertaken. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kolloa, Kapenguria, and Kapunyany sentinels despite the county veterinary team rolling out vaccination campaign. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Kolloa, Loiwat, Endao, Yatya, Goats and Sheep. 101- Yatya Endao,Orus, Yatya, Kapunyany, Shoats and cattle. Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei,Kaptuiya, Cattle 3-Yatya Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Miscarriages Yatya Goats Kolloa Camel Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 70-Goats Lumpy Skin Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats Black water Yatya 45-Sheep 2.1.5 Milk Production The average milk production household increased to 34 in August which was below the LTA of 43 bottles. Milk production slightly decreased from 146 bottles to 143 bottles (750 ml bottles). It is highest in the pastoral zone with 361 compared to 68 bottles in Agro pastoral, an increase from last months production of 357 bottles in the pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to increased cattle and camel milk production in the sentinel sites due to good pasture and browse. In August, average milk production household amounted increased to 34 bottles which is below the LTA of 43 bottles. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths AUGUST 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying decreased further from 525 in July to 487 in August due to decrease of disease incidences. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION There is massive crop failure especially in purely pastoral areas due to prolong delay of rains, the lower sides of East Pokot, Churo and other agro pastoral areas have lost the whole crop due to massive wilting, Mogotio area also experienced significant moisture stress hence reducing the expected yields for the year. Pastoralists are advised to feed their livestock with these totally wilted maize crops in order salvage some economical value. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize crop could have been harvested by now,failed rains destroyed the crop completely especially in pastoral areas. The agro pastoral zone is also affected about 30 of the food crop- maize and beans survived the July dry spell. The late July and early August rains did less to sustain the remaining crops to maturity especially in mixed cropping zones and agro pastoral areas. 2.2.2 Harvest No harvest yet, few surviving crops still in the field ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 12,985 an increase from Ksh 11,646 in July and goats at Ksh 2,834 an increase from Ksh 2,254 in July. Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (64), due to falling livestock prices and increasing food prices. In August, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 51 which is a decrease from 67 attributed to increasing of shoat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle increased from Ksh 11,646 in July to Ksh 12,985 in August. The price increase was attributed to good pasture condition in the county. The price was higher than the long term mean by 14.6 as shown on the graph. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 14,400. Pastoral livelihood zone had the average price of Ksh. 12,281. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average goat price increased from Ksh. 2,154 in June to Ksh. 2,834 in July showing appreciation attributed due good browse conditions in the month. The price is above the long term mean by 37. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 3800 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price increased from Ksh.1870 in July to Ksh. 1,944 in August showing appreciation. The price was higher than the long term mean by 18.7 . Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,245 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1,644. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales in camels. 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh 25,250 an increase from Ksh 37,333 price of July owing to market depreciation. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle remained at Ksh 37. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per Kg during the month increased to Ksh 46 from Ksh 44 in July. The average price is below the long term mean. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price remained Ksh.47 Similar to that of July. The increase in maize prices is attributed to scarcity of the produce in the local markets. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average price of Posho per kg during the month increased to Ksh 54 from Ksh 52 in July. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 57) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for (Ksh 50) due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. The price of Posho is slightly above that of a normal year by Ksh 2. 3.2.3 Beans The average price of beans per kg during the month dropped to Ksh 102 3 Ksh less than that of July. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh.103) and lowest in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh.100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption Milk consumption by household members slightly decreased in all livelihood zones. The average consumption decreased from an average of 133 bottles to 131 bottles (Livelihood zones). The slight decrease is attributed to decrease in amount of milk produced mainly from and cows and camels. Milk consumption is highest in pastoral zone at 332 bottles compared to 68 in Agro pastoral. The average consumption per household is 31 litres for August. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of August 2015 In August, the average milk consumptionhousehold amounted to approx. 31 Litres, which is below normal for the period as shown in the table above. 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability was fair. Temperatures also significantly increased. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch ,Chepkoi, Barsuswo and Natan in Yatya, Orusion (Maron), Karun Barpello, Chemintany,Napetot, Kopombo Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa,. Orusion (Maron) Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany ,Orusion, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization The current average distance from households to main water sources remained at 2.7 km. This is slightly below normal. 3.3.4 Livestock access Grazing distance increased further from 4.5 km in July to 4.8 km in August. This is attributed to poor distribution of rains in the month to sustain the little pasture that had regenerated during last long rains season hence causing further migrations in search of pasture. Pastoral all species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 7.1 km) an increase from last months 6.3 km and more than Irrigated cropping ( 0.5 km), previous month which was 1.2 Km. 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is a significant drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 15.1 in July to 14.8 in August , this can be attributed to increase in milk access at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 36.6 as slight increase from that of last month. Orus area registered a significant decrease of malnutrition cases from 15.9 in July to 4.7 in August. The overall drop is as a result of improving livestock production and access of food commodities availability of milk at the household level. Kolloa and Kapenguria recorded increased malnutrition due to rampant diarrhoeal cases in children. SENTINEL TREND MUAC JUN BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURI KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm In August 2015, the average MUAC value for the overall county amounts to 14.8. This is below the LTA for August. Malnutrition levels MUAC, the countys average MUAC is below long term average at this time of the year. Health Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolloa, Loiwat, Endao, Yatya, Goats and Sheep. 101- Yatya Endao,Orus, Yatya, Kapunyany, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kiserian, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 3-Yatya Diarrhoea Orus, Loiwat, Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Miscarriages Yatya Goats Kolloa Camel Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 70-Goats Lumpy Skin Disease Kiserian,Kinyach Goats Black water Yatya 45-Sheep Education 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. Cattle dip construction by County government at Loropil area in Endao is now completed. Livestock were vaccinated against FMD in Ngoron area. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is upgrading Kipcherere- Sibilo County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded World vision constructed water tanks in 2 schools Chemintany and kinyach FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. Seeds were supplied to 157 farmers by county government County goverment is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa County government provided farm inputs to 157 households in Kinyach County government is constructing cattle dip at Cherumbo in Kaptuya. County government is upgrading buildings at Kaptuya community wildlife conservancy. Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. Unimix flour and pumpy nut to all ECDs and Komolion dispensary by County government and WFP respectively. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. County government is distributing relief food targeting the elderly and children County government distributed relief food to displaced people in Yatya areas Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No insecurity incidence involving cattle rustling were reported this month. This can be directly attributed to extensive concerted efforts by all stakeholders promoting peaceful and harmonious cohesion among warring neighbours. Political wing of the county also played a key role in reconciling their communities so as to share the scarce pastoralist resources peacefully. Establishment of police posts in Kagir and other volatile areas have increasingly deterred cattle raids. These fruitful efforts need to be sustained to ensure perpetual harmonious coexistence among pastoralists in the county. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There was minimal in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to reduced cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE. ALL SCHOOLS WERE CLOSED FOR AUGUST HOLIDAYS EAST POKOT Adomeyon,Chesetim, Korelach, and Ngaina in Ngoron, Napeikore, Natan due to lack of water and food. Napur, Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. BARINGO NORTH Kapsepeiwa,Roroch, Karimo, Koindoi, Chemoe, Rondinin, Ngaratuko, Kakir, Kamencho nursery, Moinonin, Barketiew, Koibaware, Yatya and Sibilo in Yatya. Kinyach Boarding and day Primary due to insecurity BARINGO SOUTH Losampurmpur, Loitip, Lorok due to lack of water The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis There is good pasture and browse condition especially in pastoral zones. However in Orus, Chepkalacha, Churo and Tangulbei area received depressed rains early in the month. This adversely affected livestock production and widespread lack of water. Livestock body condition is deteriorating hence affecting market prices. Child malnutrition is improving due to increased milk access. Water sources have fully recharged as a result it will reduce household to water points distance. Insecurity has really improved and markets and trade is expected to improve especially in East Pokot where local markets were closed due rampant cattle rustling. Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. iii. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) iv. Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. v. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. vi. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2015 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2015 Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL ALERT WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges of average rainfall (Oct- March, Wajir airport) 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 State of Water Sources Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 29.35 13.33- 36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Crops area planted () of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges 21.60 - 15.64 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALERT Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show some unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. Good rainfall was received in the month -above normal. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month is below normal. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: There are decreased livestock migrations in search of water and pasture. Minimum security relatedrestricted animals movements were reported. Livestock body condition is poor and it is expected to improve due heavy rains received. Milk production is below normal range. Access indicators Terms of trade are within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Water in the pans is above normal (50-85) and trekking distances is within normal range. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 18.7 and slowly deteriorating. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is at normal due to adequate water availability. The drought indicators generally point towards alert. Generally, drought risks are medium with an improving trend due to the good rains being received across the county. The security situation has relatively improved in most volatile areas due to security operation; however Yatya and Chemoe areas in Baringo North reported rampant livestock raids through out the month. Minimal livestock movements improved trade hence increasing food security and reducing drought risks. Drought risks will drop significantly with the on going long rains MAM pounding the pastoral areas. Drought effects are expected to roll back to normal hence stepping up of preparedness activities is recommended for effective community resilience building. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value month Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 181.6 (6.8) 268 mm 80-120 0.3 (0.3) -1 to 1 VCI-3month (16.6)11.3 38 (35) 39 35-50 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4 (3 Ribs visible) Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.33--36.01 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water Households- trekking distance(km) of water in the water pan Crops area planted for the season () 769Ha (47,000Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize) LTA 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Occurrence of Water scarce diseases-scabies 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Low Medium APRIL EW PHASE BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The county received 190.8mm amount of rainfall for an average of 7 days. Generally, good rainfall was received in April. Komolion area received the highest amount of 410mm in 7 days. Temperatures are significantly decreasing in all sentinel sites daytime temperatures averaging 25 degrees centigrade in Marigat and 29 degrees centigrade in Chemolingot. Information from Indigenous knowledge indicates that, the county will generally experience reduced rainfall during the long rains season. If these good rains continue pouring, pasture and browse conditions will fast regenerate resulting to improved livestock body condition. There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) The current SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot Sub-county are 0.06 and 0.08 respectively compared to the Long term average for Baringo County and east Pokot sub-county were 0.3 and 0.3 respectively. The current values indicate the county received normal rains as well East Pokot sub-county. This is attributed to good rainfall pounding the pastoral areas. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for April for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 16.2, 11.3 and 16.6 respectively which was below the Long term average of 38 for Baringo County, 39 Mogotio Sub county and 35 for East Pokot. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal The graphs below show the vegetation condition expressed as VCI and comparing with the long-term max, min and average recorded in the same period. For April the county indicates severe agricultural drought with Mogotio Sub County most severely hit at VCI 11.3. Generally the vegetation conditions in April worsened further with five sub-counties recording severe drought category. Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought The matrix below shows that the months in the first Quarter February, March and April indicate deteriorating vegetation cover Indices. The condition has worsened further from moderate drought conditions to severe drought. However there has been adequate amount of rainfall experienced though this is not reflected in the matrix because of the time lag difference between when the image is taken and when the effects of the rain can reflect of the state of vegetation. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse The browse and pasture condition is fast regenerating due current heavy rainfall being received across the county. The browse condition is better as compared to pasture condition. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The state of water sources is normal due to heavy rainfall pounding the county. Major rivers; Kerio. Nginyang, Molo and Perkerra are now full with rain water. This has resulted to recharge of water pans volumes from 30 in March to above 50 in April. This is expected by communities to last beyond long rains season. Main water sources currently in use by both human beings and livestock are rivers, dams and boreholes which are normal sources in a normal year. Water quantity and quality is significantly improving in all livelihood zones with all sentinel sites reporting fully flowing rivers and water pans recharge. The heavy rains are expected to maintain the water resource through the long rains season. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership Households owning livestock. LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED CAMEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most of the livestock in common convergence zones have started going back home, with 40 livestock from Maron and Katikit areas and 50 livestock from Koloa and Loiwat, Kapenguria and Akoret areas now back . Livestock from Tangulbei and Churo divisions which had migrated back from Arabal, Mukutani, and Rugus areas now expected to enjoy sigh of relief with the current pasture regeneration around their home grazing lands. This new development is expected to reduce the heightening tension between neighbouring communities arising from resource sharing issues. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition across the livelihood zones is still poor with visible signs (2-3 ribs visible) especially in areas such as Katikit in East Pokot, Kisanana in Mogotio due to lack of pastures. Small stock is also equally affected. This is expected to improve with regeneration of pasture and browse due to heavy rains being received across all sentinel sites. There were FMD cases in cattle reported in Tangulbei, Churo, Kapenguria and Akoret sentinels and better parts of Baringo North. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases There were FMD cases in cattle reported in Kapenguria, Akoret and Kapunyany sentinels , but no vaccination exercise have been launched in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Akoret, Kapenguria, Endao, Kolloa, Kaptuiya. Kinyach, Kiserian, Yatya, Goats Sheep. 64- Yatya Endao Goats, Sheep and cattle. Yatya, Kiserian, Kerio river basin, Kinyach, Tangulbei, Kaptuiya, Cattle 5-Yatya Foot and Mouth Disease Akoret, Kapunyany and Kapenguria Diarrhoea Kapunyany, Kolloa, Nakoko Goats Sheep. Mange Yatya , Kolloa Goats 31-Goats Miscarriages Kiserian Goats Red water Akoret Goats Nagana Kapenguria, Kiserian Cattle Lumpy skin Kinyach Goats 10-Goats 2.1.5 Milk Production In April average milk production household remained at 20 bottles which is below the LTA. Milk production increased from 79 bottles to 106 bottles (750 ml bottles). It is highest in the pastoral zone with 171 compared to 40 bottles in Agro pastoral, a decrease from last months production of 186 bottles in the pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to increased rainfall thats started improving browsing areas during the month in all livelihood zones especially for camel species. In April average milk production household amounted to 20 bottles which is above the LTA. 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MARCH 2015 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL The total livestock units dying increased from 467 in March to 600 in April because of diminishing pasture and browsing conditions and unavailability of water. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Land preparation and planting is already ongoing across all sentinel sites. Most of the fields planted, were now germinating. More than half of the potential farmers in the agro- pastoral areas participated in crop farming this season. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Land preparation time and seed germination. 2.2.2 Harvest There was poor harvest because very little planting was done earlier in the year due to lack of rain. Most farmers rely on rain fed agriculture. This year over 50 of agro pastoralists planted food crops. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant decrease in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 9,949 a decrease from Ksh 10,125 in March and goats at Ksh 2,077 a decrease from Ksh 2,279 In March. Terms of trade was below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone (64), due to falling livestock prices and increasing food prices. In April the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 59, which is well within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers 3.1.2 Cattle Prices The average price of cattle decreased from Ksh 10,125 in March to Ksh 9,949 in April. The price decrease was attributed to poor markets and onset of long rains that swept away the remaining pasture, indigestion due to fresh pasture consumption in livestock was also reported. The price was higher than the long term mean by 6 as shown on the graph. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh. 10,875.Irrigated Cropping all species livelihood zone had the lowest average price of Ksh. 8,900. The cattle price is above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices. The average goat price decreased from Ksh. 2,279 in March to Ksh. 2,077 in April showing further depreciation. The price is above the long term mean by 10.7 . Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,195 owing to improved pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. The average sheep price decreased from Ksh. 2,087 in March to Ksh. 1,997 in April showing depreciation. The price was higher than the long term mean by 52.1 . Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,467 while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1,663. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices (where applicable and significant) Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales in camels. 4 Camels were sold in February at an average price of Ksh 20,825 a decrease from Ksh 12,850 price of March owing to improving browse conditions. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle is Ksh 46. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price per Kg during the month was Ksh 42, it decreased from March which retailed at Ksh 38. The average price was at par with the long term mean. Pastoral-all species and Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 47 and Ksh 43 owing to increasing maize prices in external markets. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The average price of Posho per kg during the month was Ksh 49, increase from Ksh 47 in March. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 56) due to increasing prices from external markets, it was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for (Ksh 40) owing to easier availability in the local markets. The price of Posho is above normal compared to this time in a normal year. 3.2.3 Beans The average price of beans per kg during the month was Ksh 105 Ksh 7 less than that of March. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh. 112) and lowest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone (Ksh. 100) owing to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. Beans prices are above normal compared to this time in a normal year. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption Milk consumption by household members increased in all livelihood zones. The average consumption increased from an average of 74 bottles to 100 bottles (Livelihood zones). The increase is attributed to increase in amount of milk produced especially from camels. Milk consumption is highest in pastoral zone at 162 bottles compared to 37 in Agro pastoral. The average consumption per household is 18 litres for March. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of April 2015 In April, the average milk consumptionhousehold amounted to approx. 18 Litres, which is below normal for the period. Table above shows that the indicator for April 2015 is below the LTA. 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption During the last four weeks the water availability increased due to onset of long rains season early April. Temperatures are also significantly decreasing. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Rormoch Kakir, Nawe, Kwarkwarian in Yatya, Karun in Barpello, Chemitany,Napetot, Kopombo in Katuwit (Kolloa) , Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa, Kinyach area. Orusion (Maron) Kapunyany Barsuswo, Kakir, Chepkoi Ngaratuko, and Natan in Yatya Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany ,Orusion, Kakonykony, Katuben and Apakizo in Maron 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization o The current average distance (in km) from households to main water sources is 3.1km, which decreased from last months 3.7km. This is slightly below normal. 3.3.4 Livestock access o Grazing distance for April decreased from 5.9 km to 5.3 km. This is attributed to heavy rainfall during the month. o Agro pastoral livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points ( 7.9 km) a decrease from last months 9.3 km and more than Irrigated cropping (1.5 km), previous month was 0.5 Km. 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status The average March MUAC level was 18.7, 0.3 more than that of March 2015. The nutritional status of the children shown by the percentage in the sampled areas, slightly deteriorated during the month. The situation has been deteriorating since beginning of the year. This is in tandem with milk consumption that decreased significantly during the month. Milk production and consumption both below the long-time mean which reduced availability of food at the household level. The level of malnutrition was above the long term mean at this time of the year as shown by the current MUAC 135 as a percentage. SENTINEL TREND JANUARY BREAKDOWN TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE TOTAL Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm In April 2015, the average MUAC value for the overall county amounts to 18.7. This is slightly above the LTA for April. Malnutrition levels MUAC, the countys average MUAC is above long term average at this time of the year. Health Disease Areas Reported 1. MALARIA Akoret , Maron, Katikit, Komolion, Kiserian, Kolloa, Kapenguria, Endao, Orus. Kapunyany, Kinyach, Yatya, Kaptuya, Nakoko, Loiwat 2. DIARHOEA Akoret, Kiserian, 3. TYPHOID Yatya, Akoret, Kiserian, Katikit, Kapenguria, Kapunyany, Kinyach, 4. BRUCELLOSIS Kiserian, Kinyach, Yatya, 5. FLUCOLD Maron, Kiserian, Yatya, Loiwat 6. URTI Akoret 7. LUMPY SKIN Ngambo Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK.-ALL SCHOOLS WERE ON APRIL HOLIDAY EAST POKOT Ptikii, Ngeleyo, Chesetim, Krezee, Adomeyon, Chesetim, Ngaina, Korelalch in Ngoron due to water shortage. Kapau, Takawia and Kongor in Akoret- Insecurity. Naatan, and Napeikore primary schools in Nakoko Water shortage and insecurity. Kamokol, Chemayes, Kangiruru, in Kapunyany. Nyakwala, FGCK Tukolkol, Alem, Apakizo and Chepanda in Maron. Tilingwo, Lodengo, Nalukumoning, Tukomoi, Kerelon, Chepelion and Loiwat high school in Loiwat. Lomortom, Cheptaran and Kipkaghit in Kolloa. Orus and Katungura in Orus BARINGO NORTH Rormoch, Karimo, Koindoi, Chemoe Rondinin, Ngaratuko, Kakir, Kamencho nursery, Moinonin, Barketiew, Koibaware, Yatya and Sibilo in Yatya. Kinyach Boarding and day Primary. MARIGAT Kiserian, Losampurmpur, Sokotei, Lorok and Loitip school hardly hit by water shortage 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.3 5.0 Current Intervention Measures (Action) Non-food interventions Note the following. Expansion of irrigated crop production under irrigated agriculture. Promotion of drought tolerant crops (THVC). Water harvesting for crop production (water pans) 1 Cattle dip being constructed by County Government of Baringo in Yatya Borehole being constructed by AIC Kenya in Kapunyany. 2 FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo NDMA undertaking water trucking to Schools with serious water shortages in East Pokot and Marigat Sub counties Loruk-Yatya road has been graded by County government Food Aid Note the following. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Marigat. 26,200 people. World Vision Kenya (PRRO FFA) Kollowa and Tangulbei. 12,400 people. GFD through Presidency 46,200 (At 50 food ratio but only receiving 16 of allocation for two out of the three target months.) Schools meals program- 1 mealchildday 40 Schools. Health facility SFP-Therapeutic feeding but weak linkage to GFD 82 facilities. Trocaire FFA through Barpello mission targeting 100 household in Tilingwo and Chepkererat Sub locations. Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Rampant cattle raids were reported constantly in Mochongoi in Marigat, Yatya, Chemoi, Ngaratuko and Kapturo in Baringo North sub county. In Yatya area, raids were reported frequently with the latest raiding incident where 41 cattle were stolen, claimed 2 lives and injured 1 security officer. Insecurity incidences were also reported near Marigat town-R5 area where around 40 shoats were stolen. Quick security intervention is needed to arrest this escalating situation. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been some migration in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to increased cattle raids. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). 16,500 people have been affected and displaced from Arabal, Mochongoi and Kapindasum area and now housed around Sandai. On going insecurity around 2000 people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir areas have moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa and are in dire need of humanitarian support. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis Things contributing to food insecurity in the county are: There is regeneration of pasture and browse due to the setting in of long rains earlier in April. This will in turn increase livestock production. Livestock body condition is expected to improve hence improved market prices. Child malnutrition is expected to drop significantly as a result of increased availability of milk. Water sources recharge is expected which will result in reduced household to water points distance. Insecurity has posed risk to markets and trade especially in East Pokot. Recommendations Residents in conflict cattle rustling prone areas need more security personnel deployed especially at a time when there may be increased conflict over water and pasture. Residents request for increased security and surveillance however say that there is very slow response from the government. There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. iii. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) iv. Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. v. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. vi. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reportedKWS,ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices increase 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking schoolshealth centres closed water shortage schools report increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 sites MUAC15 Average county Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving friendships, a visitations service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat."
        },
        "DEWS_2016": {
            "Baringo 2016 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2016 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 45.00 mm received within the month of September which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges. This is attributed to off season light showers received in better part of July- August. Water in the pans is above normal (70-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Most Livestock are still accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones but Pastoral livelihood is reducing in both quality and quantity. Minimal migration reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges but projected to reduce in the next one month due to reducing quality of pasture and browse which might lead to migrations. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 11.5 this is below the threshold point of 15. A slight increase compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is within normal, water contamination reported in Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT AGROPASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45(44)27 108(72)66 80-120 VCI-3month 67(68)65 57(61) 53 35-50 of water in the water pan 4(70-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(Maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(Maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites SEPTEMBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 45.00 mm within the month of September. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 108 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-55ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 44.00 mm within the month of September. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 72.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 27.00 mm within the month of September. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 66.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The September SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for August for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 67.28, 68.12 and 65.42 respectively all were above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within September. With the ceasession of long rains the situation is expected to deteriorate. Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at Septemb er 2016 BARINGO County 67.28 Above Normal vegetation conditions in all sub-counties Central 67.17 Eldama 69.06 Mogotio 68.12 North 69.45 South 68.49 Tiaty 65.42 Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on deteriorating trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the ceasession of going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 67.28 which has reduced compared to the month of August. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the high temperatures being experienced and reduction in rainfall performance. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 65, this is above normal. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the cessation of long rains and high temperatures currently being experienced in East Pokot. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 68 of growth. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the ceasession of long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Quantity The pasture and browse condition remained fair to poor in all livelihood zones. This is expected to change for the worse if the ongoing off season showers stops. The forage is estimated to last for 1 to 2 months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water, however Animals from Solar,Kapau, Napur,Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana county. Quality The quality of pasture within the County is poor to fair. The browse is still green, fresh and palatable for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The pasture and browse quality is expected to improve with the ongoing off season rains. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Most sentinel sites received relatively fair to good amount of rainfall in the 3rd Dekad of September, especially Kerio valley region and Kiserian sentinel sites that hardly received any rainfall from September. The availability of water in the sentinel sites is fair most water pans are expected to recharge. The ongoing off season rains are expected to help sustain the availability of water. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at about (30o-45ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 50-70 .This is expected to last 1-2 months. Water quantity and quality is fair in all livelihood zones with only 2 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods in 9 sentinel sites was 9,539 in the month of August as compared to 11,024 in August. This was attributed to the decrease in the livestock births. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water, however Animals from Solar,Kapau, Napur,Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana county. There were no migrations in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was still fair to good across the nine sentinel sites this was due to the availability of water and fair forage in the county. The grazing zones are expected to regenerate fast with ongoing rains. Generally 1-2 ribs were visible in cattle in all livelihood zones. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported; however CCPP and ECF remained endemic in Yatya, Akoret,Yatya and Loiwat. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Yatya, Kerio Valley Shoats 63 Shoats Kapenguria, Akoret, shoats Yatya, Loiwat,Kerio valley Cattle 2 cows Kapenguria, Sheep Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats Heart water Akoret,Yatya shoats 123 shoats Kapenguria Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County from 40 bottles (750ml) in August to 36 bottles in September. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above normal average of 37 bottles. The decline in milk production is attributed to mainly dwindling forage conditions. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths SEPTEMBER 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.16 The total livestock units dying increased in September by three to 298 from 295 in August. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize and beans have been harvested in all of the sentinel sites. Millet, sorghum, beans and cowpeas have also been harvested in agro pastoral zones the harvest was good due to the well distribution of the rainfall in the county. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was slight drop in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 13,508 a decrease from Ksh 13,821 in August and goats at Ksh 2,637 an increase from Ksh 2,738 in August. Terms of trade is at 45 this is below the long-term mean of 56. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (59), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In September, the TOT for Baringo County is at 45. This is attributed to dropping of livestock prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the lower side, which indicates an improving purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 13,508 in September. Compared to the month of August (Ksh 13,821), the prices slightly dropped. This is attributed to poor pasture conditions and market dynamics given the current cattle good body condition. The prices were below the long term mean by 4 as shown on the graph. Irrigated livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 16,000. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of September was Ksh 2,637. In comparison to the month of August, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2,738. The prices in September slightly decreased. The price decrease is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 750 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of September, 2 camels were reported sold at Ksh 35,000. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The price of milk per bottle remained at Ksh 54 within the month of September. This is attributed to the decline in the amount of milk produced. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month was at Ksh. 37 in September. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages of Ksh 45. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.46 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.25. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of September was at Ksh 43. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are below the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 50) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 30 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of September was Ksh 90. In comparison to the month of August, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.94 the prices have decreased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 12 and this is attributed to bean crop bumper harvest. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 107) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 70) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 38 bottles (750 ml) in the month of August to 35 bottles in the month of August. This is attributed to good livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 30 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of September 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In September, water was fairly available in the county due to the off season rains received. Temperatures also remained fairly low. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kakir,Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Loyeya borehole has broken down Koipirir and Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources was at 1.8km in the month of September in comparison to that of August. This is attributed to long dry spells that affected pastoral regions of the county. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance remained at 2.7km km in September. This is attributed to depressed rains Kerio valley, Akoret and Kiserian resulting to a decrease in pasture and browse in these areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (4.5km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (1.7km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status Children under five years nutritional status deteriorated slightly within the month of September, there was slight increase in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 10.5 in August to 11.5 in September was recorded, this is attributed mainly to decreased availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 42, an increase from that of last month (35). Maron and Orus areas registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in September due to increased diarrhoeal and malaria cases. SENTINEL SITE August September TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KISERIAN KISERIAN KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE AVERAGE Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of September was 11.5. In comparison to the month of August, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 10.5, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has slightly gone up, this is due to decrease in the production and consumption of milk. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom FCCK Tukolkol ECD pupils study under trees- needs classrooms Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 0.8 within the month of September. Non-food interventions Note the following. Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes Chepotindar ECD is under construction by county government Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Ruko headquarters under construction by North Rangeland Trust Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The movement of livestock from Solar,Kapau, Napur,Chesawach and Pkatil to Turkana county has already caused flare ups between Pokots and Turkana. One man was shot and injured at Tot-Kolloa Bridge. This heightened insecurity along Kollowa Marakwet borders. The forage is expected to last up to 2-3 months Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Maron 13 shoats Maron 7 shoats Hyena Maron 28-shoats Leopard Maron 3 calves 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no human migrations reported in the month. Food Security Prognosis The drought situation remained low due to off season rains experienced. The water access and availability is expected to improve especially in pastoral areas. This will reduce livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans are expected to recharge. The term of trade is still favourable hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. Generally, County food security situation is stable, attributable to ongoing off season precipitation received within the month of September. Sector Recommendations Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. The water committees need technical support and capacity building. The communities in these areas are sourcing water from afar water pans for livestock and domestic use. The affected boreholes are; -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks b) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Napur and Chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. c) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported in all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2016 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 53.00 mm received within the month of October which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges. This is attributed to off season light showers received in better part of July- August. Water in the pans is within normal ranges(70-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Most Livestock are still accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones but Pastoral livelihood is reducing in both quality and quantity. Minimal migration reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges but projected to reduce in the next one month due to reducing quality of pasture and browse which might lead to migrations. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 11.8 this is below the threshold point of 15. A slight increase compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is within normal, water contamination reported in Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT STABLE AGROPASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 53(81)25 120(76)52 80-120 VCI-3month 54(52)48 58 (53) 60 35-50 of water in the water pan 4(70-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(2-3 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(Maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(Maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 wards OCTOBER EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE The rains started the first dekad and decreased in the second dekad of the month. The onset of OND season rains was normal. In comparison with long term the onset was early. The rainfall distribution was poor with declining trend from 2nd dekad of the month. The OND season rains are currently erratic in spatial distribution and are expected to improve Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: The County received an average rainfall of 53.00 mm within the month of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 120 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-55ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 81.00 mm within the month of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 76.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 25.00 mm within the month of October. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 52.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The October SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal but improving. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for October for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 53.54, 51.75 and 48.12 respectively all were above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County but some level of stress was experienced in East Pokot within September. With the onset of short rains the situation is expected to improve. COUNTY County VCI as at October BARINGO County 53.54 Above Normal vegetation conditions in all sub-counties except Tiaty which is now in the normal band Central 66.33 Eldama 61.98 Mogotio 51.75 North 58.10 South 54.75 Tiaty 48.12 Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on deteriorating trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the onset of short rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 54 which has reduced compared to the month of September. This trend is expected to improve with the onset of the short rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 48, this is normal. This trend is expected to improve with the onset of short rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 52 of growth. This trend is expected to improve with the onset of short rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (78) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county. This is expected to change for the better with the onset of the short rains. The forage is estimated to last for 1 month .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water, however Animals from Solar,Kapau, Napur,Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana county. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods are fair (67). The situation is normal for the county. The browse is still palatable and quantity is fair for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The browse quality is expected to improve with the onset of short rains. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were pans and dams( 29) followed by rivers and traditional water wells Most wards received relatively fair to good amount of rainfall in the last Dekad of September, especially Kerio valley region and Mukutani ward that hardly received any rainfall from September. The availability of water in the wards is fair most water pans are expected to recharge. The onset of short rains are expected to help sustain the availability of water. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at about (30o-45ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 50-70 .This is expected to last 1-2 months. Water quantity and quality is fair in all livelihood zones with only 2 wards reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods in 9 wards was 9865 in the month of October as compared to 9,539 in September. This was attributed to the increase in the livestock births. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water, however Animals from Solar,Kapau, Napur,Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana county. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya are moving towards Arabal and Mukutani. There were no migrations in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is poor to fair across the nine wards this was due to the deteriorating of water and forage conditions in the county. 2-3 ribs were visible in all livelihood zones. 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported; however CCPP and ECF remained endemic in Akoret,Yatya and Loiwat. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kiserian, Yatya, Loiwat, Orus, Kolloa, Akoret, Kapenguria, Goats and Sheep. 328 sheep and goats Katuwit, Koloa,Barpelo shoats Maron, Kolloa,Yatya, Kiserian, Cattle 6 cows and 15 goats Diarrhoea Orus, Kolloa, Kapenguria, Nakoko Sheep Heart water Yatya shoats 100 shoats Kapenguria Fig.13 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County from 32 bottles (750ml) in October to 36 bottles in September. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is below normal average of 38 bottles. The decline in milk production is attributed to mainly dwindling forage conditions. Fig.14 2.1.6 Livestock deaths OCTOBER 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.15 The total livestock units dying decreased in October to 272 from 298 in September. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize in all the wards have been harvested. The yield was good apart from a few areas in Kerio valley region where the crop was affected by depressed rains in the area. The crops under irrigation especially in Perkerra have significantly reduced due to declining levels of river water. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was slight drop in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 13,481 a decrease from Ksh 13,508 in September and goats at Ksh 2,559 a decrease from Ksh 2,637 in September. Terms of trade is at 47 this is below the long-term mean of 56. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (57), due to fluctuation of food prices. Fig.16 In October, the TOT for Baringo County is at 47. This is attributed to decrease of livestock prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the lower side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.17 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 13,481 in October. Compared to the month of September (Ksh 13,508), the prices slightly dropped. This is attributed to poor pasture conditions and market dynamics. The prices were below the long term mean by 7 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 13,818. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.18 The average price of a goat in the month of October was Ksh 2,559. In comparison to the month of September, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2,637. The prices in October slightly decreased. The price decrease is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 975 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of October, 2 camels were sold at Ksh 24,500. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The price of milk per bottle increased from Ksh 54 in September to Ksh 56 within the month of October. This is attributed to the decline in the amount of milk produced. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.19 The average maize price per kilogram for the month was at Ksh. 39 in October a slight increase from Ksh 37 in September, attributed to decreased supply. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages of Ksh 45. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.47 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.20 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of October was at Ksh 47. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are below the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.21 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of October was Ksh 92. In comparison to the month of September where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.90 the prices have increased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 8 and this is attributed to decreased bean supply. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 107) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 70) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 35 bottles (750 ml) in the month of September to 28 bottles in the month of October. This is attributed to declining milk production. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 36 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of October 2016 Fig.21 3.3.2 Food Consumption Score The most prevalent county FCS for the month was acceptable. Only irrigated livelihood zone reported some poor FCS of 17. Agropastoral livelihood was the most food secure due to fair crop harvests. This normal situation for the county. 3.3.3 Availability of water for household consumption In October, water was fairly available in the county due to the off season rains received late last month. Temperatures slightly increased. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kakir,Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Loyeya borehole has broken down Koipirir and Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.22 3.3.4 Household access and Utilization Fig.23 The average distance from the households to the main water sources was at 3 km in the month of October in comparison to that of 1.8 km in September. This is attributed to long dry spells that affected pastoral regions of the county. 3.3.5 Livestock access Fig.24 Grazing distance remained at 6 km in October. This is attributed to depressed rains in pastoral areas resulting to a decrease in pasture and browse in these areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (7km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (4km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status Children under five years nutritional status deteriorated slightly within the month of October, there was slight increase in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 11.5 in August to 11.8 in October was recorded, this is attributed mainly to decreased availability of milk at the household level across wards; Komolion is still leading with 41, a decrease from that of last month (42). Akoret and Loiwat areas registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in September due to increased diarrhoeal and malaria cases. Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 26 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of October was 11.8. In comparison to the month of September, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 11.5, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has slightly gone up, this is due to decrease in the production and consumption of milk. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Nyakwala needs ECD teacher Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Loyeya and Tukolkol primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees BARINGO SOUTH Lorok pri, Kiserian sec, Sokotei day sec are hardly hit by water shortages. Fig.27 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The fishing livelihood zone employed most coping strategies (11). The agro pastoral zones employed least coping mechanisms at 1.6 within the month of October. Non-food interventions Note the following. Girls dormitory in Komolion primary and Kapyosha ECD classroom under construction by under CDF Tiaty. Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes Baringo North CDF issued water tanks Rormoch and Kosile primary schools Chemoe cattle dip in now operational Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Ruko headquarters now complete by North Rangeland Trust Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement One man was shot dead at Tot-Kolloa Bridge; two were also injured in separate wave of retaliatory attacks between Marakwet and Pokot communities. Around 50 cattle were stolen during the attacks. This heightened insecurity along Kollowa Marakwet borders. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron 9 shoats 2. Lynx Maron 7 shoats Hyena Maron 41-shoats 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no human migrations reported in the month. Food Security Prognosis Generally, County food security situation is stable, attributable to off season precipitation received late last month, the trend likely to improve with the onset of OND rains. The water access and availability is expected to improve especially in pastoral areas. This will reduce livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans are expected to recharge. The term of trade is still favourable hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. Sector Recommendations Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following critical boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. The water committees need technical support and capacity building. The communities in these areas are sourcing water from afar water pans for livestock and domestic use. The affected boreholes are; -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting wards with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. b) Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks. c) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Nyakwala school needs ECD teacher, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported across all the wards therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators ar outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside norma ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agriculturaldrought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agriculturaldrought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators ( VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2016 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2016 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 60.00 mm received within the month of November, which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges in East Pokot and Mogotio. This is attributed to depressed rainfall received in better part of November. Water in the pans is below normal (35-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is dwindling in both quality and quantity. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. They are expected back in the next 2-3 months. Livestock body condition is fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges but projected to reduce in the next one month due to reducing quality of forage. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households are increasing drastically. Utilization indicators: Number of children at risk of malnutrition is currently below normal at 134 but projected to increase in Pastoral livelihood zones. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal, water contamination reported in Tiaty and Baringo Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 60 (60)35 120(91)74 80-120 VCI-3month 39(34)34 55(55) 57 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(35-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4 (12th 13th ribs visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(Maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(Maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges No. at Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 10 wards reported 0-2 wards NOVEMBER EW PHASE A. BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Fig.1 The rains started the first dekad and it is ongoing in the 2nd dekad of the month. The onset of OND season rains was normal. In comparison with long term the onset was early. The dekadal rainfall distribution was fair with each dekad recording some rains. The OND season rains are currently erratic in spatial distribution and are expected to improve Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA:) Fig.2 The County received an average rainfall of 60.00 mm within the month of November. In comparison to LTA, the current rainfall is below normal to the long-term rainfall average of 137 mm. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-35ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. 1.1.2. Rainfall Estimates for the 2 Subcounties Based On ARC Data Source Fig.3 Source ARV RFE In the Figure on the previous page, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 60.00 mm within the month of November. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 91.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.4.Source ARV RFE In the Figure above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 35.00 mm within the month of November. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 74.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) The November SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 Agricultural Drought 1.2.1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The VCI value for November for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 39.16, 34.22 and 33.96 respectively. Mogotio and Tiaty currently below normal indicating moderate drought as reflected in Fig.5. With the whole County experiencing some level of stress. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 28th November 2016 BARINGO County 39.16 The vegetation greenness is on average for the period although slightly below normal and with worsening trend in Tiaty and Mogotio (VCI-1 month 24.84 and 19.54 respectively), which will probably determine a drought situation in the two sub-counties during the next dry season unless additional rains are received in the next weeks Central 54.74 Eldama 46.73 Mogotio 34.22 North 42.82 South 42.34 Tiaty 33.96 Fig.5.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on deteriorating trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the depressed short rains. Fig.6.Source BOKU Fig.7 Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 39, which has reduced compared to the month of October. This trend is expected to worsen with the depressed short rains. Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 33, this is below normal. This trend is expected to worsen with the depressed short rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 34 indicating moderate drought. This trend is expected to worsen with the depressed short rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (72) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county but expected to change with ongoing short rains. The pasture is estimated to last for 1 month. Livestock from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones, Livestock in Ribko and Kolloa wards have moved to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones in search for pasture and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, and Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County in search for pasture. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods the fair (70). The situation is normal for the county. The browse is still palatable and quantity is good for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The browse quality is expected to improve with the ongoing short rains. 1.3 Hydrological Drought 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.12 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were pans and dams (30) followed by traditional water wells and rivers. Most wards received relatively fair to poor amounts of rainfall in the 2nd Dekad of November, especially Kerio valley region and Mukutani ward. The availability of water in the wards is still fair most water pans are expected to recharge with the ongoing short rains. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at above 30ocelsius. Currently most pans volume capacity is at below 50 of normal. This is expected to last 1 month especially in pastoral livelihood zones. Water quantity and quality is still fair in all livelihood zones with only 2 wards reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. 1.3.4 Household access and Utilization Fig.13 The average distance from the households to the main water sources was at 9.2 km in the month of November in comparison to that of 9 km in October. This is attributed to long dry spells that affected pastoral regions of the county. The pastoralists in pastoral livelihood trek the highest distances for water. 1.3.4 Livestock access Fig.14 Grazing distance increased from 1km in October to 3.5 km in November. This is attributed to depressed rains in pastoral areas resulting to a decrease in pasture and browse in these areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (6km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (1km). 2.0MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.1 Production Indicators 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is fair to poor especially for cattle across the livelihood zones attributed to deteriorating water and forage conditions in the county. 2-3 ribs were visible in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water, however Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana county. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya are moving towards Arabal and Mukutani. There were no migrations in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases Foot and mouth disease outbreak was reported CCPP and ECF are endemic in all pastoral areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats Sheep. 90 Shoats Ilchamus and Ribko and kerio valley Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Shoats 5 shoats Ribko, Kolloa,Saimo soi, Mukutani, Cattle 3 cows and 15 shoats Diarrhoea Tangulbei, Kolloa, Nakoko Sheep Heart water Saimo soi Shoats 100 shoats Tirioko MANGE Saimo soi Shoats 17 Shoats WORMS Mukutani All livestock Mukutani Chicken Fig.15 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County increased to 2.5 litres in November compared to 1.8 bottles in October. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above the normal average of 1.9 litres. The improved milk production is attributed to mainly fair browse condition for camels, which are main species producing milk in pastoral livelihood zone. Fig. 16 Rain-fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize crop in all the wards has been harvested. The yields were good apart from a few areas in Kerio valley region where the crop was affected by depressed rains in the area. The crops under irrigation especially in Perkerra have significantly reduced due to declining levels of river water. 3.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 3.1 Livestock Marketing 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Long Term Mean 140871213311908129211104913137111011172614033144741609017207 Cattle Prices 2016 Fig.17 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh 13,007 in November compared to Octobers (Ksh 13,144. This is attributed to deteriorating forage conditions and market dynamics. The prices were below the long term mean by 19 .Cattle species in Irrigated livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 22,000. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Long Term Mean 2928 2513 2713 2498 2370 2473 2131 2363 2445 2448 2631 2707 2781 2178 2293 2359 2410 2606 2585 2574 2339 2509 2783 Goat Market Price Goat Market Price 2016 Fig.18 The average price of a goat in the month of November was Ksh 2,625 that is fairly comparable to Ksh 2,673 reported in October. The price decrease is attributed to the local market dynamics. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 109 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are at par with the longterm average at this time of the year. 3.2 Crop Prices 3.1.1 Maize Maize Prices 2016 Fig.19 The average maize price per kilogram for the month was at Ksh. 48 in November a slight increase from Ksh 43 in October, attributed to decreased supply. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are above the long term averages of Ksh 41. Pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest average price of Ksh.50 compared to Irrigated cropping LZ, which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.1.2 Posho Prices Posho Market Price Posho Market Price 2016 Fig.20 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of November was at Ksh 54. In comparison to the Long term average Posho price of Ksh.49 at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 55) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.1.3 Beans Prices Beans Prices 2016 Fig.21 The average Beans price per kilogram for the month of November increased to Ksh.123 compared to Ksh. 98 in October. This is attributed to market dynamics. The prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 110) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 70). 3.1.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Terms of Trade TOT 2016 Fig 22 The Terms of Trade (TOT), the number of kilograms of maize a household would purchase after the sale of one goat) increased from 59 in November to 65 during the month under review. The least ratio was recorded in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 68 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest ratio at 85. The Terms of Trade were above the long-term average of 49, indicating high purchasing power to the pastoralists. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household increased from 1.6 litres in the month of October to 1.8 litres in the month of November. This is attributed to fair milk production from camel species. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 1.6 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Apr May Milk Consumption(litre) 2016 Fig 23 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.24 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was acceptable. Irrigated, Pastoral and fishing livelihood zone reported some poor FCS. Agropastoral livelihood was the most food secure due to fair crop harvests. This is normal at this time of the year for the county. 4.1.3 Health and Nutrition Status In November, 809 children under five years were screened. Of these 134 were at risk of malnutrition while 106 were mid at risk, 24 were at moderate level and 4 had severe malnutrition status. 4.1.4 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm MUAC ( Children at risk) Muac 2016 Fig. 26 The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of September was 11.5. In comparison to the month of November, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 11.8. The nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has increased slightly, as attributed to declining dietary diversity. Compared to long-term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index Fig.27 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 16, followed by fishing livelihood zone at index 12. The agro pastoral zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.2 within the month of November. On-Going Interventions Non-food interventions. a. Ministry of health distributed mosquito nets in Ilchamus area b. Girls dormitory in Korossi primary and Kapyosha ECD classroom construction by CDF Tiaty. c. Construction of Kipnai and Cheptaran dispensary, Chemakutan cattle dip and Cheptalamach water pan by County government. d. Tilingwa and Tuwit classrooms being contructed by CDF Tiaty e. FMD and PPR disease vaccination is ongoing across the county being supported by RPLRP Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government g. JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes h. Baringo North CDF issued water tanks Rormoch and Kosile primary schools Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing k. CFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus. Food interventions. Korossi location received 100 bags of unimix from PAG church mission 5.0 Emerging Issues 5.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county largely remained peaceful with few incidences being reported. The Kollowa Marakwet borders remained calm after vigorous peace building interventions from the National and County Government and political leaders. 5 cows and 16 goats were stolen from Natur and Kakir in Yatya. On the 19th November 2016 the Turkana raiders raided Lomole area and 2 people were killed but peace efforts are currently ongoing in the affected areas. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko 20 shoats Ribko 9 shoats Hyena Ribko 34-shoats 5.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no human migrations reported in the month of November. 6.0 Food Security Prognosis Generally, County food security situation is stable in Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated but stressed in Pastoral Livelihood zones and likely to deteriorate further due to depressed OND rains being experienced. The drought situation shows worsening trends due to relatively poor rains received in the 2nd dekad and 3rd dekad of the month. Especially in Mukutani, Saimo soi, Tangulbei and Loyamorok wards. The water access and availability is likely to continue decreasing especially in pastoral areas. Livestock migrations are likely to continue especially from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones. Livestock in Ribko and Kolloa wards have migrated to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones in search for pasture and water may aggravate the already fragile existing peaceful situation. With the minimal recharge of water sources in the County, and with volumes currently below 50 of normal, stress of access to water by livestock and households will likely be increased in the coming months. The pasture condition remains poor across pastoral zones; browse condition is fair in all livelihood zones but will likely worsen if OND rains remain depressed. 7.0 Sector Recommendations Genaral Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance; peace building and patrols initiatives in all dry season grazing zones and along Kerio- Kolloa region and grazing convergence zones where resource based conflicts are expected. Close monitoring of livelihood indicators for timely and effective response. Sharing of the Rapid assessment findings to provide evidence based planning and response. Activation of Sectoral response plans. Water Sector a) Water pans which require desilting include; Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya Chewuwai dam in Akoret. b) The water committee members of following non operational critical boreholes experiencing management challenges need technical support and capacity building. Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya Kapau borehole in Akoret. Loyeya borehole in Komolion Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health Kamurio Dispensary requires nurse quarters Maron Dispensary requires maternity wing Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. A matter that should be address by all concerned stakeholders. a) The HealthNutritional sector technical working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. b) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Komolion dispensary requires drugs supply. Education a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Chesawach, Nyakwala and Napur School needs ECD teacher, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported across all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. Ongoing vaccinations in Baringo North and East Pokot. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emaciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2016 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2016 A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Seasonal Calendar Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 353.00 mm received within the month of May which is above average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is within normal ranges but on an improving trend. This is attributed to on-going long rains. Water in the pans is above normal (1000-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges. Attributed to regeneration of good pasture, browse and availability of water for livestock. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have significantly decreased. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 11.4 this is below the threshold point of 15. An improvement compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 353(132)116 201(116)114 80-120 VCI-3month 56(51)50 47 (50) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by April) 1,394Ha(maize) 1,663Ha(Beans) LTA (1,205Ha) LTA(1,276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by December 2015) 13,940(maize) 11,695(Beans) LTA(15,062) LTA(10,773) 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites MAY EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 353.00 mm within the 4th week of May. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 201.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded decreased significantly during the month to (20-25ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 132.00 mm within the month of May. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 116.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 116.00 mm within the month of May. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 114.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI(SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal . Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for May for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 56, 51 and 50 respectively all were within above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within May. With the ceasession of long rains the situation is expected to deteriorate. Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at 30th May BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on improving trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing stressed conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving trend due to the on-going long rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on improving trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the ceasession of going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.7.Source BOKU Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 55 but on an improving trend compared to the month of April. This trend is expected to improve with the ongoing long rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 50, but currently on improving trend . This trend is expected to improve with the ongoing long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 51 of growth. This trend is expected to change with the ceasession of long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition is regenerating in all livelihood zones. This is attributed to ongoing rains across the county. The new sprouting forage is estimated to last for 3 to 4 months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders are now migrating back to their traditional grazing grounds to access new pasture, browse and water near home. Quantity The quantity of pasture and browse within the County is fair with an improving trend and this is attributed to heavy showers experienced across the County. Lack of adequate precipitation adversely affected regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quantity is estimated through the long rains season. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Heavy rainfall was received within the month of May. Flash floods were witnessed in Marigat and East Pokot sub counties causing destruction of properties and livelihoods. In the pastoral, marginal mixed and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability is good due to increased water pan recharge and sufficient river flows. In irrigated and mixed cropping zones water access is good especially the highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are rivers, water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures have remained low during the month to about (20-25ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 80 .This is expected to last 2-4 months. Water quantity and quality is good in all livelihood zones with only 2 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods slight decrease from 19,974 in April to 19,807 in May. This can be attributed to herding dynamics which include in migrations due to insecurity. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period 5 NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Pastoralists who were accessing pastoral resources at dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) have migrated back to their traditional zones to access regenerating pasture and browse. This is expected to reduce pastoral resource conflicts among neighbouring communities. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is good in all livelihood zones. This is still attributed to increased pasture, forage and water availability for livestock consumption .Livestock trekking distances in search of water, pasture and browse reduced significantly. The grazing zones are regenerating fast. Generally 1-2 ribs were visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported, however CCPP, ECF, Diarrhoea and heart water remained endemic across the livelihood zones. FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kapenguria, Nakoko, and Kiserian. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kiserian, Yatya, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Kapenguria, Goats and Sheep. 49 shoats Kaptuya, Kolloa,Yatya Cattle 19 cattle Diarrhoea Kolloa, Kapenguria, Nakoko Sheep Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats Heart water Yatya shoats 65 shoats Kiserian, Nakoko, Kapenguria Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County from 22 bottles (750ml) in April to 30 bottles in May. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is below normal average of 34 bottles. This increase in milk production is attributed to adequate regenerating browse, pasture and improved water situation for livestock. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MAY 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 0 282 TOTAL 0 333 Fig.16 The total livestock units dying decreased further to 333 from 654 in April due to improved livestock condition. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Most crops are doing well. They are currently at top dresser and final weeding stage. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most crops are at knee high stage. Farmers are busy top dressing and weeding their farms. In irrigated zones crops are in the fields growing well. 2.2.2 Harvest Currently there are no crop harvests 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 12,607 an increase from Ksh 12,319 in April and goats at Ksh 2,410 a slight increase from Ksh 2,359 in April Terms of trade remained at 53 this is below the long-term mean of 66. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (60), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In May, the TOT for Baringo County remained at 53 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 12,607 in May. Compared to the month of April (Ksh 12,319), the prices slightly improved. This is attributed to market dynamics given the current cattle good body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 24 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 12, 950. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of May was Ksh 2,410. In comparison to the month of April, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2, 359. The prices in May slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the improved livestock body condition. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 900 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of May, 2 camels were reported sold at Ksh 32,500. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 48 within the month of May. This is attributed to market dynamics given the availability of milk. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month decreased from Ksh 44 in April to Ksh. 43 in May. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.46 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.40. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of May decreased to Ksh 49 from Ksh 50 in April. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are below the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 45 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of May was Ksh 97. In comparison to the month of April, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.101 the prices have slightly decreased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 3 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral species livelihood zone (Ksh 107) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 27 bottles (750 ml) in the month of May. In comparison to the month of April, where the average milk consumed per household was 19 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level increased within the month. This is attributed to good livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 32 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of May 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In May, the water availability improved across the county due to good rains. Temperatures also decreased significantly. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Wate rpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Kapombo borehole needs completion Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of May decreased in comparison to that of April. This is attributed to heavy rains which have recharged the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly decreased from 4.3 km in April to 3.1km in May. This is attributed to good rains resulting to substantial regeneration of pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (4.4km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (0.7km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 13.4 in April to 11.4 in May, this is attributed mainly to increased availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 40, an increase from that of last month (36). Kolloa area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in May due to increased diarrhoeal cases and Nakoko recorded the highest reduction as result of increased supplementary feeding for children. SENTINEL SITE April TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE AVERAGE 0.1875 1.5625 15.1875 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2010-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of May was 11.4. In comparison to the month of April, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13.3, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE BARINGO SOUTH Loropil and Sintaan schools were affected by floods EAST POKOT Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.3 within the month of May. Non-food interventions Note the following. Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes being sunk by JICA in Yatya Kinyach water pan fencing completed by County government Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools CDF Baringo north issued water tanks to Rormoch, Kakir and Kosile primary schools Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa. Food Items Barpello parish distributed food to 10 vulnerable households per village in Kolloa World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity tension is still high along Elgeyo Marakwet-Baringo county border. This time occasioned by Marakwet inter-clan land disputes which resulted to killing of four people. The security officers have been deployed to apprehend the culprits and to ensure peace is restored. Small scale livestock raiding was reported in Chemongoi and Ngaratuko where dozens goats and sheep were stolen and they have not been recovered .In Lorok, Kiserian over 60 shoats were stolen and only 25 have been recovered to date. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron 17 goats 2. Lynx Maron 9 shoats Hyena Maron 29-shoats Leopard Maron 2 calves Snake bite Maron 1 people injured 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were human migrations from Tot- Marakwet to Bapello, Kolloa and Loiwat due to flare ups between Pokot and Marakwet communities. Pastoralists from Kiserian moved to Epuyaki and Losampurmpur due to insecurity 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently low due to ongoing long rains. The water availability has improved especially in pastoral areas. This has reduced livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also recharged. The terms of trade is good hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. The food security situation is stable within the County due to ongoing long rains. Recommendations The water pans facilities which require attention include; Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya and Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. The following boreholes needs operational support; Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support, Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken, Solar borehole near Kapedo, Kapombo borehole needs completion. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. Kenya Wild Services needs to take action including possibility of compensation on livestock and human lives lost on persistent human wildlife conflict among pastoralist. For instance, 2 I persons in Maron were bitten The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. The following schools in East Pokot needs support; Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators ar outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside norma ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agriculturaldrought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agriculturaldrought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report",
            "Baringo 2016 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2016 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators 50 of biophysical indicators show fluctuations below the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 20.00 mm received within the month of March which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges but on a improving trend. This is attributed to minimal showers experienced in some livelihood zones. Water in the pans is below normal (35-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are accessing pasture and water at dry season fall back zones. Livestock body condition is fair in agro-pastoral and irrigated but poor in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal and ranges but on declining trend. Attributed to poor pasture, browse and water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have increased. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13.4 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15. Worsened compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT STABLE AGROPASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 20(41)19 91(64)71 80-120 SPI3M(Dec 3M ) 0.82(0.76)1.06 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 52(50)44 39 (42) 33 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(35-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(2 Ribs visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 1,394Ha(maize) 1,663Ha(Beans) LTA (1,205Ha) LTA(1,276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by December 2015) 13,940(maize) 11,695(Beans) LTA(15,062) LTA(10,773) 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Medium The drought risk situation is currently medium but expected to improve with the onset of long rains (MAM). Sporadic rains were received and temperatures increased significantly across all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in some pans were below normal. Distances to household water points and grazing fields increased due to inadequate precipitation within the month. MARCH EW PHASE A.BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 20.00 mm within the 4th week of March. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 91.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (35-42ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 41.00 mm within the month of March. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 64.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 19.00 mm within the month of March. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 71.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The December SPI(SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to below normal but on a worsening trend because of the on-going dry spell. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for March for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 52, 50 and 44 respectively all were above the respective long term averages 39 (42) 33 for the month and also above the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. below. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within March but moderate drought sets in towards the end of March. This calls upon recommended interventions to be implemented in affected areas (pastoral) currently on a worsening trend with the on-going dry spell. Community members need to be trained to use food reserves well so as to avoid acute shortage during this dry season. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at February BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on a worsening trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing stressed conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on a depleting trend due to the on-going dry spell. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on a worsening trend in Baringo County, projected to change further with the late onset of the long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions except Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio which are currently stressed and showing below normal vegetation conditions as per observations. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 52(worsening), this is due to on-going dry spell. This is on a reducing trend compared to the month of February. This trend is expected to worsen with the late onset of the long. rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 44 of growth attributed to on-going dry spell, but on worsening trend compared to the month of February. This trend is expected to worsen with the late onset of the long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 50 of growth attributed to on-going dry spell. This is on a reducing trend as compared to the month of February. This trend is expected to worsen with the late onset of the long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition remained fair in the mixed cropping and irrigated livelihood zones but very poor and deteriorating in Pastoral, marginal mixed and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. The worsening condition in all livelihood zones is a result of lack of substantial rains across the county. The remaining forage is estimated to last for one to one-half months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their traditional grazing grounds are accessing pasture, browse and water in their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders. Quantity The quantity of pasture and browse within the County is still poor with a diminishing trend and this is attributed to no showers experienced across the County. Lack of adequate precipitation adversely affected regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quantity is estimated to last till onset of long rains season. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Minimal sporadic rainfall was received within the month of March. In the pastoral, marginal mixed and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability worsened due to minimal water pan recharge and decreased river flows. In irrigated and mixed cropping zones water access is still fair especially highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures have been increasing significantly during the month to about (360- 420celsius) resulting to high evaporation rates in water pans, currently most pans remained at 40- 45 capacity .This is expected to take the pastoralists till the onset of long rains season. Water quantity and quality is fair in mixed and marginal mixed livelihood zones but poor in Pastoral livelihood zones with more than 7 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 19,182 in February to 19,507 in March. This can be attributed to herding dynamics which include in migrations in search of water and pasture. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Pastoralists are accessing pastoral resources at dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders). Pastoralists who were at Laikipia ranches are migrating towards Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha, Tangulbei, Mukutani and Arabal. Pastoralists from Lower Kerio are heading towards Kasarani, Kainuk, lomelo and Kandugoi along Turkana border. Pastoralists from Maron and Kositei are moving towards Kalabata and Chemoe. There is need to sustain harmonious and peaceful situation that is currently experienced to ensure pastoral resources at fall back convergence zones are shared harmoniously. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county remained fair in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. This is still attributed reduced water and pastures availability for livestock consumption .Livestock trekking distances in search of water, pasture and browse are increasing. Unsubstantial rainfall and high temperatures being experienced ensured no regeneration of pasture. Generally 2-3 ribs were visible in cattle; ECF was reported in Kiserian ,Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kaptuya areas. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported, however CCPP, ECF, Diarrhoea and heart water remained endemic across the livelihood zones. ECF cases in cattle were reported in Kaptuya, Kolloa, Yatya, Loiwat and Kiserian. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Yatya, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Goats and Sheep. 40 sheep and goats Kapenguria, Akoret Cattle Yatya Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kiserian ,Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Cattle 6 cows Diarrhoea Kolloa Kapenguria, Sheep Mange Yatya, Kolloa Goats 15 goats Red water Akoret Goats and sheep Worms Kiserian Sheep and goats Heart water Yatya Goats and sheep 112 shoats Foot Mouth Kapenguria Cattle Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 22 bottles (750ml) in the month of March 2016 compared to 30 bottles (750ml) of the month of February. There was a decrease in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is below normal average of 27 bottles. This decline in milk production is attributed to inadequate rainfall which has led to deterioration of browse and pasture condition. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MARCH 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 0 306 TOTAL 0 380 Fig.16 The total livestock units dying decreased further to 380 from 433 in February due to reduced predation and livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted No crops were planted within the month. Farmers are doing land preparation in readiness for planting during long rains season. In irrigated zones crops are in the fields growing well. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Generally all livelihood zones are preparing their farms for planting in April. 2.2.2 Harvest Currently there are no crop harvests 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 11,557 an increase from Ksh 11,478 in February and goats at Ksh 2,293 a slight increase from Ksh 2,178 in February Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in agro pastoral all species livelihood zone (64), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In March, the TOT for Baringo County remained at 52 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 11,557 in March. Compared to the month of February (Ksh 11,478), the prices slightly improved. This is attributed to market dynamics given the current cattle fair body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 12 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 12, 516. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of March was Ksh 2, 293. In comparison to the month of February, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2, 178. The prices in March slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 500 owing fair pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. Fig.20 The average sheep price slightly increased from Ksh 2,117 in February to Ksh 2,140 in March showing upward trend. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 851. The increase in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Irrigated cropping species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,750 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1, 618. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of March, 4 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh 22,250 a decrease from Ksh 29,333 price of February owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 46 within the month of March. This is attributed to market dynamics given the scarcity of the milk. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month increased from Ksh 39 in February to Ksh. 40 in March. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are lower than the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.44 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of March remained at Ksh 47. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral-All Species livelihood zone (Ksh 51) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of March was Ksh 96. In comparison to the month of February, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.97 the prices have slightly decreased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above the long term average by 2 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral species livelihood zone (Ksh 104) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 20 bottles (750 ml) in the month of March. In comparison to the month of February, where the average milk consumed per household was 27 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level decreased within the month. This is attributed to inadequate rains which have declined the milk production. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 27 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of March 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In March, the water availability varied across the county due to sporadic rains. Temperatures also significantly decreased. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Rormoch, Kosile, Kagir and Kamencho in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational supportNapetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo, Kapombo borehole needs completion Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of March increased in comparison to that of February. This is attributed to delay onset of long rains which have depleted the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly increased from 4.7 km in February to 6.6 km in March. This is attributed to lack of enough rains resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (11km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (1.2 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status 4.1.1 MUAC There is slight increase in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 13 in February to 13.4 in March, this is attributed mainly to reduced availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.7 but a slight increase from that of last month (35,2). Kapunyany area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in February due to increased diarrhoeal cases in children and Kolloa recorded the highest reduction as result of increased supplementary feeding outreaches for children .The general upward trend is as attributed to decreased access to milk for the households. SENTINEL SITE TREND BREAKDOWN TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 14.33 13.76 AVERAGE 0.437 1.562 14.812 127.687 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2010-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of March was 13.4. In comparison to the month of February, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years slightly deteriorated within the month. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1.2 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Most schools in eastern East Pokot are still affected by massive Pokot community male initiation exercise undertaken mainly on the school going boys especially in Churo and Tangulbei divisions occasioning very low school attendance in schools Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy The coping strategy index was at 1.1 within the month of March. Current Intervenions 5.1 Non-food interventions Note the following Komolion dispensary got supplementary feeds from world vision Keriwork dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government Auction yard and shop stalls are being constructed by county government and DRSLP project World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools CDF Baringo north issued water tanks to Rormoch, Kakir and Kosile primary schools Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa JICA sunk boreholes in Chesekem and Kipchemoi Food Items World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major livestock raiding reported apart from over 130 goats and sheep that were stolen in Chemoe, Kagir and Ngaratuko. The stolen livestock have not been recovered yet. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Akoret, Maron 63 shoats 2. Lynx Maron 8 shoats Hyena Maron 38-shoats Stray dogs Maron 34 goats Leopard Leopard 3 calves, 1 camel Snake bite Maron 2 people injured 6.3 Migration limited to migrations of persons. There were no human migration reported 6.4 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently at medium level due to expected onset long rains season .The water stress level is expected improve especially in pastoral areas. This will reduce livestock movements in search for pasture and water in agro pastoral and pastoral zones. In addition levels of water in pans will also be recharged. The terms of trade due is expected to improve with the long rains hence enhancing purchasing power of the community. The food security situation is likely to improve within the County due to expected onset of long rains. Recommendations Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. Kenya Wild Services needs to take action including possibility of compensation on livestock and human lives lost on persistent human wildlife conflict among pastoralist. For instance, 2 I persons in Maron were bitten The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2016 A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 191.00 mm received within the month of June which is above average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges. This is attributed to on-going long rains. Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are still accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges. Attributed to regeneration of good pasture, browse and availability of water for livestock. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have significantly reduced. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 11 this is below the threshold point of 15. An improvement compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 191(100)95 93(52)35 80-120 VCI-3month 69(60)69 53 (55) 50 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by April) 1,394Ha(maize) 1,663Ha(Beans) LTA (1,205Ha) LTA(1,276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by December 2015) 13,940(maize) 11,695(Beans) LTA(15,062) LTA(10,773) 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites JUNE EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 191.00 mm within the 3rd and 4th Deckard of June. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 93.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded decreased significantly during the month to (20-25ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 100.00 mm within the month of June. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 52.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 95.00 mm within the month of June. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 35.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal . Fig.4.Source BOKU Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for June for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 69, 60 and 69 respectively all were above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within June. With the ceasession of long rains the situation is expected to deteriorate. Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at 30th June BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on improving trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving trend due to the on-going long rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on improving trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the ceasession of going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 69 but on an improving trend compared to the month of May. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the cessation of long rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 69, this is above normal. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the cessation of long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 60 of growth. This trend is expected to change with the ceasession of long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Quantity The pasture and browse condition is fair in all livelihood zones. This is attributed to precipitation across the county. The forage is estimated to last for 3 to 4 months. Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds to access new pasture, browse and water near home. Quality The quality of forage within the County is good, especially browse; its green, fresh and palatable for livestock. Adequate precipitation sustained regeneration of good quality forage across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quality is expected to improve with heavy rains 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The first two weeks of June were dry but was followed by heavy rainfall within the third week. In the pastoral, marginal mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability is good due to recharged water pan and sufficient river flows. In irrigated and mixed farming zones water access remained good especially the highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are rivers, water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures were low during the month about (20-24ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 75 .This is expected to last 2-4 months. Water quantity and quality is good in all livelihood zones with only 3 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 19,807 in May to 20,544 in June. This can be attributed to herding dynamics which include stabilisation of pastoral resource conditions. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Pastoralists who were accessing pastoral resources at dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) are still at their traditional zones to access good pasture and browse. This has reduced pastoral resource conflicts among neighbouring communities. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is good in all livelihood zones. This is still attributed to increased pasture, forage and water availability for livestock consumption .Livestock trekking distances in search of water, pasture and browse reduced significantly. The grazing zones are regenerating fast. Generally 1-2 ribs were visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period 5 NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported, however CCPP, ECF and Diarrhoea remained endemic across the livelihood zones. FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kapenguria, Nakoko, and Kiserian. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kiserian, Yatya, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Kapenguria, Goats and Sheep. 49 shoats Kaptuya, Kolloa,Yatya Cattle 19 cattle Diarrhoea Kolloa, Kapenguria, Nakoko Sheep Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats Heart water Yatya shoats 65 shoats Kapenguria Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County from 30 bottles (750ml) in May to 45 bottles in June. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above normal average of 38 bottles. This increase in milk production is attributed to adequate regenerating browse, pasture and improved water situation for livestock. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths MAY 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.16 The total livestock units dying decreased further to 268 from 333 in May due to improved livestock conditions. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most crops (maize, beans) on the field are at tusslingflowering stage. These crops are doing well due to good rains within the month. 2.2.2 Harvest Some farmers within Baringo South and Baringo Central have started harvesting their maize and water melon. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 12,655 an increase from Ksh 12,607 in May and goats at Ksh 2,606 a slight increase from Ksh 2,410 in May. Terms of trade is at 48 this is below the long-term mean of 72. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (59), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In June, the TOT for Baringo County is at 48 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates an improving purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 12,655 in June. Compared to the month of Mayl (Ksh 12,607), the prices slightly improved. This is attributed to market dynamics given the current cattle good body condition. The prices were below the long term mean by 4 as shown on the graph. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 14, 000. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of June was Ksh 2,606. In comparison to the month of May, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2, 410. The prices in June slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the improved livestock body condition. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 250 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of June, 2 camels were reported sold at Ksh 29,500. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 51 within the month of June. This is attributed to market dynamics given the availability of milk. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month decreased from Ksh 43 in May to Ksh. 39 in June. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages of Ksh 53. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.46 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.30. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of June decreased to Ksh 47 from Ksh 49 in May. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are below the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in IrriJgated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of June was Ksh 90. In comparison to the month of May, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.97 the prices have decreased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 19 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 105) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 90) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 38 bottles (750 ml) in the month of June. In comparison to the month of May, where the average milk consumed per household was 27 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level increased within the month. This is attributed to good livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 32 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of June 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In June, the water availability improved across the county due to good rains. Temperatures also remained low. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of June decreased in comparison to that of May. This is attributed to heavy rains which have recharged the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly decreased from 3.1 km in May to 2.6 km in June. This is attributed to good rains resulting to adequate pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (3.9km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (1km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status Children under five years nutritional status continue to improve within the month, a drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 11.4 in May to 11 in June was recorded, this is attributed mainly to increased availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 37.4, a decrease from that of last month (40). Akoret area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in June due to increased diarrhoeal cases and Loiwat recorded the highest reduction as result of increased milk availability. SENTINEL SITE April TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE AVERAGE 0.125 1.375 12.6875 128.6875 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2010-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of June was 11. In comparison to the month of May, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 11.4, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years slightly improved within the month. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Adich, Chepelon, Loiwat, Tukumoi, Nalukumoning and Kipnai primary schools hardly hit by lack of Loyeya, Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees BARINGO SOUTH Kiserian primary school was disrupted by insecurity Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 within the month of June. 5.0 Ongoing interventions Non-food interventions Note the following. Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes Farmers planted rhodes pasture grass in Kinyach provided by ministry of agriculture World vision Bartabwa ADP installing water tanks in two schools - Kinyach and Chemintany primary Kapombo water pan in now operational Kinyach water pan fencing completed by County government Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Ruko headquarters under construction by North Rangeland Trust Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools CDF Baringo north issued water tanks to Rormoch, Kakir and Kosile primary schools Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Food Items Action aid distributed food to 100 households (30 maize bags, 15 beans bags and 50 lts cooking oi) Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity along Kerio valley-Elgeyo Marakwet-Baringo county border deteriorated within the month. 1 man was shot dead and hundreds of livestock were stolen from marakwet by suspected Pokot bandits. The security officers were deployed to apprehend the culprits and to ensure peace is restored. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron 8 shoats 2. Lynx Maron 14 shoats Hyena Maron 31-shoats 6.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were further human migrations from Tot- Marakwet to Bapello, Kolloa and Loiwat due to flare ups between Pokot and Marakwet communities. Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is still low due to good rains experienced. The water access and availability has improved especially in pastoral areas. This has reduced livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also recharged. The terms of trade is favourable hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. Generally, County food security situation is stable, attributable to good precipitation received. Sector Recommendations Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. The water committees need technical support and capacity building. The communities in these areas are sourcing water from afar water pans for livestock and domestic use. The affected boreholes are; -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Napur and Chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Adich, Chepelon, Loiwat, Tukumoi, Nalukumoning and Kipnai primary schools hardly hit by lack of food. There is need for immediate action by ministry of education. c) Loyeya, Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. Livestock a) Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported Kerio valley area. Cases were also reported last month and therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. Roads and Infrastructure a) Section of the road to Tangulbei at Kadogoi was washed away by floods, Tangulbei Orus road was cut off by deep gulleys caused by heavy run offs all needs attention. b) Kakapul bridge and Nginyang are impassable during rains- needs attention Security and Administration a) Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. This will ensure lasting peace, cohesion and integration is established. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2016 A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 146.00 mm received within the month of July which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges. This is attributed to on-going long rains. Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are still accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges. Attributed to regeneration of good pasture, browse and availability of water for livestock. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have reduced. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 10.2 this is below the threshold point of 15. An improvement compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 146(78)65 180(115)74 80-120 VCI-3month 69(62)73 54 (55) 52 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites JULY EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 146.00 mm within the month of July. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 180 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded decreased significantly during the month to (20-25ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 78.00 mm within the month of July. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 115.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 65.00 mm within the month of July. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 74.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for July for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 69, 62 and 73 respectively all were above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within June. With the ceasession of long rains the situation is expected to deteriorate. Fig.5.Source BOKU Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY County VCI as at 31st July BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on improving trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing normal conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving but expected to change with the onset of the dry spell. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on improving trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the ceasession of going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 69 which has remained stable compared to the month of June. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the onset of the dry spell. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 73, this is above normal. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the cessation of long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 62 of growth. This trend is expected to change with the ceasession of long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Quantity The pasture and browse condition remained fair in all livelihood zones. This is attributed to good precipitation across the county. The forage is estimated to last for 2 to 3 months. Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water. Quality The quality of forage within the County is good; especially browse is still green, fresh and palatable for livestock. Adequate precipitation sustained regeneration of good quality forage across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quality is expected to decline with the onset of the dry spell. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The month of July was largely wet, with off-season rainfall recorded in all sub counties. In the pastoral, marginal mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability remained good due to recharged water pan and sufficient river flows. In irrigated and mixed farming zones water access also remained good especially the highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are rivers, water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures were low during the month at about (21-26ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 70 .This is expected to last 2-3 months. Water quantity and quality is good in all livelihood zones with only 1 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods in 9 sentinel sites was 10,755 in July down from 20,544 in June. This can be attributed to reduction of monitoring sites and herding dynamics. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Pastoralists who were accessing pastoral resources at dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) are Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period still at their traditional zones to access good pasture and browse. Cattle from Maron have migrated to Donyosas and Natan for mating season. This has reduced pastoral resource conflicts among neighbouring communities. In the month of July there were no out migration reported but intra-migrations were noticed in some sub- counties. There were no migrations in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub- counties. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county remained good in all livelihood zones. This is still attributed to increased pasture, forage and water availability for livestock consumption. The grazing zones are regenerating fast. Generally 1-2 ribs were visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No disease outbreaks were reported, however CCPP remained endemic across the livelihood zones. FMD cases in cattle were reported in Kapenguria. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kiserian, Yatya, Loiwat, Akoret, Kapenguria, Goats and Sheep. Kapenguria shoats Kiserian, Cattle Kapenguria Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County dropped from 45 bottles (750ml) in June to 43 bottles in July. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above normal average of 37 bottles. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths JULY 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.16 The total livestock units dying in July increased to 296 from 268 in June due to increase in livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize crop on the field is at harvesting stage. Most crops did well due to good rains within the month. 2.2.2 Harvest Most farmers across all livelihood zones have started harvesting their maize, beans and water melon. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 13,961 an increase from Ksh 12,655 in June and goats at Ksh 2,835 an increase from Ksh 2,606 in June. Terms of trade is at 47 this is below the long-term mean of 77. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (61), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In July, the TOT for Baringo County is at 47 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the lower side, which indicates an improving purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 13,961 in July. Compared to the month of June (Ksh 12,655), the prices slightly improved. This is attributed to EWS revised sentinels sites and market dynamics given the current cattle good body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 20 as shown on the graph. Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 16, 267. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of June was Ksh 2,835. In comparison to the month of June, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2, 606. The prices in July slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the improved livestock body condition. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 800 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of July, 1 camel was reported sold at Ksh 25,000. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 45 within the month of July. This is attributed to market dynamics given the availability of milk. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month increased from Ksh 39 in June to Ksh. 41 in July. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages of Ksh 56. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.49 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of July remained at Ksh 47. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of July was Ksh 103. In comparison to the month of June, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.90 the prices have increased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 0.2 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 108) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household remained at 38 bottles (750 ml) in the month of July. This is attributed to good livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 35 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In July, the water availability improved across the county due to good rains. Temperatures also remained low. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources remained at 1.3km in the month of July in comparison to that of June. This is attributed to heavy rains which have recharged the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly decreased from 2.6 km in June to 2.4km km in July. This is attributed to good rains resulting to adequate pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (4.3km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (1km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status Children under five years nutritional status continue to improve within the month, a drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 11 in June to 10.2 in July was recorded, this is attributed mainly to increased availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 38, an increase from that of last month (37.4). Kapenguria area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in July due to increased diarrhoeal cases and Maron recorded the highest reduction as result of increased milk availability. SENTINEL SITE April TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KISERIAN KISERIAN KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE AVERAGE Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of July was 10. In comparison to the month of June, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 11, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years slightly improved within the month. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Kipnyan, Kangiriru and Korelach primary lacks access to clean water Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Adich, Chepelon, Loiwat, Tukumoi, Nalukumoning and Kipnai primary schools hardly hit by lack of Loyeya, Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees BARINGO SOUTH Kiserian primary school was disrupted by insecurity Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 0.7 within the month of July. 5.0 CURRENTLY 5.1 Non-food interventions Note the following County government sunk borehole in Korelach primary school JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes World vision Bartabwa ADP installed water tanks in two schools - Kinyach and Chemintany primary Kinyach water pan fencing completed by County government Auction yard and shop stalls have been completed, was constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. Ruko headquarters constructed by North Rangeland Trust now complete Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Borehole was sunk at Loropil area FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Food Items Komolion dispensary received supplementary feeds. Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county remained fairly peaceful with minimal insecurity incidences being reported. Insecurity situation along Kerio valley-Elgeyo Marakwet-Baringo county border improved within the month due to concerted efforts from county administration and locals. In Kiserian, one man was short and injured by raiders; Kiserian secondary school was also disrupted. Yatya area reported reduced livestock theft especially in Ngaratuko. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron 7 shoats 2. Lynx Maron 21 shoats Hyena Maron 37-shoats 6.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons There were no human reported in the month. 6.4 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation remained low due to good rains experienced. The water access and availability has improved especially in pastoral areas. This has reduced livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also recharged. The terms of trade is favourable hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. Generally, County food security situation is stable, attributable to good precipitation received within the month. Sector Recommendations Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. The water committees need technical support and capacity building. The communities in these areas are sourcing water from afar water pans for livestock and domestic use. The affected boreholes are; -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) Kipnyan, Kangiriru and Korelach primary lacks access to clean water, needs provision waterestablishment of sustainable water source. b) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Napur and Chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. c) Adich, Chepelon, Loiwat, Tukumoi, Nalukumoning and Kipnai primary schools hardly hit by lack of food. There is need for immediate action by ministry of education. d) Loyeya, Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. Livestock a) Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported Kerio valley area. Cases were also reported last month and therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. Roads and Infrastructure a) Kakapul bridge and Nginyang are impassable during rains- needs attention Security and Administration a) Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. This will ensure lasting peace, cohesion and integration is established. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2016 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 56 mm received within the month of January which is above average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges.VCI-3 month for Baringo, Tiaty and Mogotio is above normal ranges hence indicating Normal conditions. This is attributed to previous seasons short rains and off season rains Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are still within their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of water and pasture in these areas. Livestock body condition is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is above normal ranges. Attributed to available pasture and water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have reduced. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 12.2 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15.Improvement compared to last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal due to adequate water and not contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Tiaty) Mogotio Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 80-120 SPI1M(December ) 0.82(0.76)1.06 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 79(71)80 57 (54) 44 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 43987Ha(maize) 21527Ha(Beans) LTA (38550Ha) LTA(22859Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by September) 800,000 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Medium The drought risk situation is currently low but expected to move towards medium with the onset of the dry spell. High temperatures are being recorded currently across all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans are currently good. If the rains ceases, water levels are expected to reduce in water reservoirs. JANUARY EW PHASE A.BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 56.00 mm within the 3rd week of January. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 23.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Heavy down pour was mainly received in the highlands especially Marigat and Komolion areas. In the sentinel sites, water availability improved substantially due to water pan recharge and river flows Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-34ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2. Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 48.00 mm within the month of January. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 12.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 57.00 mm within the month of January. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 13.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The December SPI values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal because of adequate rainfall in the last 4 weeks of December. January SPI values were not available. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for January for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 79, 71 and 80 respectively all were above the respective long term averages 57 (54) 44 for the month and also above the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.5 below. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within January. This calls upon preparations for the onset of dry spell. Community members need to be trained to use food reserves well so as to avoid acute shortage in the next season. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY Sub County VCI as at January BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed. The vegetation conditions are generally on a normal trend due to the on-going short rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates wet conditions in Baringo County, projected to change with the onset of the dry spell early next year. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions with notable improving trend due to on-going rains in December which will necessitate the improvement of pasture and browse in all livelihood zones zones. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 79, this is due to off-season short rains and previous season rains. This is on an improving trend compared to the month of December. This trend is expected to worsen with the onset of dry spell which has seen high temperatures being recorded currently. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 80 of growth attributed to off season Short Rains, but on improving trend compared to the month of December. This trend is expected to worsen with the onset of the dry spell. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig 10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 71.11 of growth attributed to off-season Short Rains. This is an improvement compared to the month of December. This is attributed to Elnino rains. This trend is expected to worsen with the onset of dry spell. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition is still good in the Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones but fair and improving in Pastoral livelihood zones. The current good forage condition in all livelihood zones is a result of prolonged short rains experienced in the county. The forage is estimated to last for one to two months. Most pastoralists are grazing at their traditional grazing grounds because of available water and pasture. Quantity The quantity of Pasture and browse within the County is currently normal with an improving trend and this is attributed to sufficient showers experienced across the County during the last season. This supported regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. This is expected to sustain the livestock for the next 1- 2 months. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The relatively good rains in January sustained water levels in most water reservoirs and currently there is enough water for both livestock and domestic needs. Water stress is low in Pastoral-All species and some part of Agro-Pastoral livelihoods. Most of the catchment poolsnatural ponds have recharged. The water pan volume remained at above 70 on average. The month of January received relatively good rains. Its spatial and temporal distribution is fair with all sub counties reporting light heavy showers which maintained water sources. In the sentinel sites, water availability improved due to water pan recharge and river flows. This supplemented the borehole as the main water sources across pastoral areas especially East Pokot Sub county. Temperatures recorded dropped significantly during the month to about (23-28o) Celsius). The water pan capacity average is still at above 70. This is expected to last about 2-3 months. Water quantity and quality is still good in all livelihood zones with more than 5 sentinel sites reporting reduction in water borne diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods decreased from 22,293 in December to 20,865 in January. This can be attributed to increase in the volumes of livestock presented to the market for sale for school fees payment in January and this was preceded by December festivities which triggered huge livestock sales. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists are currently accessing these pastoral resources near their homes due to availability of pasture and water in traditional grazing grounds. Those who were accessing pasture, browse and water in their fall back dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) are heading still at home. Pastoralists who were at Laikipia ranches are migrating towards Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha, Tangulbei, Mukutani and Arabal. Pastoralists who were at Kasarani and Kandugoi along Turkana border are still back at traditional grazing grounds of Lower Kerio. Pastoralists who were at Kalabata and Chemoe are still back at traditional grazing grounds of Maron and Kositei. The harmonious and peaceful situation that is Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period currently experienced needs to be sustained to ensure pastoral resources at fall back convergence zones are shared harmoniously. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county is still good in agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods but fair in pastoral livelihood zones. This is due to availability of water and pastures hence livestock dont walk long distances in search of water, pasture and browse. This is attributed to availability of sufficient rainfall that supported regeneration of pasture. Generally, 1 rib is visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, ECF, Mange, Diarrhoea and Black water remained endemic across the livelihood zones. CCPP cases in cattle were reported in Loiwat, Kolloa, Yatya and Akoret though vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost(Dec) Livestock lost (Jan) Loiwat, , Kolloa , Yatya, Goats and Sheep. 133 goats 94 sheep and goats Kapenguria Cattle Endao, Yatya, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Yatya, Kolloa, Kiserian, Cattle 7 cattle 33 cows Diarrhoea Kolloa, Goats and Sheep. Mange Kolloa, Yatya Goats 50 goats 23goats Heart water Yatya Goats and sheep 2 cattle and 7 goats Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 40 bottles (750ml) in the month of January 2016 compared to 39 bottles (750ml) of the month of December. There was a slight increase in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is far above normal average of 35 bottles. This increase in milk production is attributed to the availability of rainfall which has led to availability of water for regeneration of browse and pasture. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths JANUARY 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 0 368 TOTAL 0 438 Fig.16 The total livestock units dying increased slightly to 438 from 433 in December due to predation and livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted CROPS SITUATION Crops that were planted in mid-October are now flowering tussling and most farmers within Agro- pastoral livelihoods are harvesting their crops (beans and green grams). The maize crop under Kolloa irrigation scheme is ripening. Acreage under maize was negligible and only in the mixed farming zone of Baringo Central sub county. Most farmers planted green grams and beans in the mixed and irrigated livelihood zones. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers who had prepared their farms and planted their crops are now being harvested. No major crop disease was reported. 2.2.2 Harvest Mostly legumes were being harvested (beans and green grams). Water melons also were harvested within Irrigated and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Honey harvesting spotted in areas like Maron and Akoret. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 14,305 an increase from Ksh 12,762 in December and goats at Ksh 2,781 a slim increase from Ksh 2,762 in December. Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (52), due to increasing livestock prices and increasing food prices. Fig.17 In January, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 46 which is a slight drop from 47 attributed to slight increasing of goat prices at the markets, which is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 14,305 in January. Compared to the month of December (Ksh 12, 762), the prices increased. This is attributed to market dynamics and given that the body of cattle has improved. The prices were above the long term mean by 26 as shown on the graph. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 19, 183. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of January was Ksh 2, 781. In comparison to the month of December, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2, 762. The prices in January slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 000 owing to good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. Fig.20 The average sheep price slightly decreased from Ksh 2,378 in December to Ksh 2,331 in January showing upward trend. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 892. The decrease in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Irrigated cropping species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,850 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1, 919. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of January, 8 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh 25, 250 a decrease from Ksh 30,000 price of January owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 39 within the month of January an increase from Ksh 37 of the month of December. This is attributed to market dynamics. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month of January remained at Ksh 41. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are higher than the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.43 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of January was Ksh 49. In comparison to the month of December, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Ksh 47, the prices have increased in the end of January. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral-All Species livelihood zone (Ksh 51) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 45 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of January was Ksh 108. In comparison to the month of December, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.101, the prices have increased by the end of January. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above the long term average by 16 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the Pastoral-All species livelihood zone (Ksh 103) and lowest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 35 bottles (750 ml) in the month of January. In comparison to the month of December, where the average milk consumed per household was 34 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level increased within the month of January. This is attributed to prolonged short rains which that have boosted the milk production. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 33 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of January 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In January, the water availability is good. Temperatures also significantly decreased. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Water pans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian, nawe and Natan in Yatya, Tilingwa in Lower Kolloa, Yatya, Kosile, Kagir and Kamencho in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of January remained stable in comparison to that of December. This is attributed to prolonged short rains which have made major sources of water to recharge. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly increased from 3.8 km in December to 4 km in January. This is attributed to poor spatial rains which were inadequate to regenerated pasture and browse in some areas especially Tangulbei. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (5.8 km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (0.8 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is significant drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 13 in December to 12.2 in January, this can be attributed mainly to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.5 but a slight dropt from that of last month (37). Kiserian area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases by 2.5 in January and Kapenguria recorded the highest reduction of malnutrition cases by 5.9 due to increase diarrhoeal cases in children. The overall downward trend is as a result of higher number of household having access to basic food especially milk. SENTINEL SITE TREND BREAKDOWN TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 14.33 13.76 TOTAL 0.062 1.1875 14.625 132.25 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2009-2013) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of January was 12. In comparison to the month of December, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years improved within the month of January. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT About 90 of schools in East Pokot Sub county have been affected by massive Pokot community male-(over 2000 boys) initiation exercise undertaken mainly on the school going boys across the sub county occasioning very low school attendance in all schools BARINGO SOUTH Lorok, Loitip and Sokotei primary are affected due to scarcity of food Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 within the month of January Non-food interventions Note the following. CDF Baringo north issued water tanks to Rormoch, Kakir and Kosile primary schools JICA sunk boreholes in Chesekem and Kipchemoi Barpello mission is supplying food to vulnerable 100 beneficiaries World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Cattle dip construction by County government is ongoing at Seronu near Tangulbei Dispensary construction is ongoing at Keriwok near Komolion Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area County government is constructing Katikit and Chemolingot district hospital is being expanded. FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County Government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Food Items Barpello mission is supplying food to vulnerable 100 beneficiaries World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Ilpunyaki village in Ngambo received food ration (5kg maize, 2kg beans amd 2kg rice). The elderly were targeted issued by the County government. Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county experienced minimal livestock raids especially at normal grazing convergence zones. In Ngaratuko, Chemoe and Chemongoi areas in Yatya - 4 cows, 21 goats were stolen and were not recovered. Pastoralists accessing pasture, browse and water in their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders are still accessing pasture near their homes. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders especially at this season where Pokot male initiation ceremonies are ongoing across East Pokot sub county. Usually, there is tendency of the graduating initiates to raid livestock from neighbouring communities. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Kolloa, Maron 27-shoats Kolloa, Maron 27 shoats Hyena Kolloa, Maron 52-shoats Stray dogs Kolloa, Maron 88 goats Snake bite Kolloa, Maron 1 person killed, 3 injured Fig.31. 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no migrations in Baringo North, Yatya areas due to availability of water and pasture in traditional grazing grounds. Refer to livestock migration in page 4 (2.1.2). The people from Yatya, Chemoe, Natur, Natan, Ngaratuko, Kapsebeiwa, Lopotion, Chemangoi Kagir that had moved to Sibilo, Rondinin, Chepkewel and Bartabwa have fully returned to their homes due to decreased insecurity in these areas. 6.3 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently is still at lower level due to adequate rains were received in the in the month. The highlands and in the low lands both received adequate rainfall which rendered positive impact on environmental indicators. This eventually led to an increase in both livestock and agricultural production resulting in improved food security status in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also stabilised due to adequate rainfall. The food security situation is at stable level and the County is generally food secure as per the IPC reference table. This might change with the ceasession of Elnino rains. Recommendations There is need to encourage water and pasture conservation in pastoral areas. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Kenya Wild Services needs to take action including possibility of compensation on livestock and human lives lost on persistent human wildlife conflict among pastoralist. For instance, in Kolloa, 1 person lost life through snake bite in January. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2016 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators 50 of biophysical indicators show fluctuations below the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 0.57 mm received within the month of February which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges but on a worsening trend. This is attributed to ongoing dry spell. Water in the pans is below normal (35-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock have started migrating from their traditional grazing grounds to dry season fall back zones. Livestock body condition is fair in agro-pastoral and irrigated but poor and worsening in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is normal but on declining trend. Attributed to diminishing pasture and water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have increased. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15. Worsened compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENIING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 0.57(1)1 96(33)24 80-120 SPI3M(Dec 3M ) 0.82(0.76)1.06 -1 to 1 VCI-3month 71(67)66 45 (49) 39 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(35-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(2 Ribs visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 1,394Ha(maize) 1,663Ha(Beans) LTA (1,205Ha) LTA(1,276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by December 2015) 13,940(maize) 11,695(Beans) LTA(15,062) LTA(10,773) 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Medium The drought risk situation is currently medium but expected to worsen with the ongoing dry spell. High temperatures are being recorded currently across all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans are fast declining. Distances to household water points and grazing fields increased due to lack of precipitation within the month. FEBRUARY EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 0.57 mm within the 3rd week of February. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 96.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-39ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 1.00 mm within the month of February. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 33.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 1.00 mm within the month of February. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 24.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals a below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The December SPI(SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to below normal but on a worsening trend because of the on-going dry spell. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for February for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 71, 67 and 66 respectively all were above the respective long term averages 45 (49) 39 for the month and also above the normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. below. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within February but moderate drought is gradually setting in with on-going dry spell. This calls upon recommended interventions to be implemented in affected areas (pastoral) currently on a worsening trend with the on-going dry spell. Community members need to be trained to use food reserves well so as to avoid acute shortage during this dry season. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at February BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on a worsening trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing stressed conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on a depleting trend due to the on-going dry spell. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on a worsening trend in Baringo County, projected to change further with the ongoing dry spell. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions except Tiaty and Baringo South which are currently stressed and showing below normal vegetation conditions as per observations. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 71(worsening), this is due to on-going dry spell. This is on a reducing trend compared to the month of January. This trend is expected to worsen with the on-going dry spell which has seen high temperatures being recorded currently. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 66 of growth attributed to on-going dry spell, but on worsening trend compared to the month of January. This trend is expected to worsen with the on-going dry spell. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 67 of growth attributed to on-going dry spell. This is on a reducing trend as compared to the month of January. This trend is expected to worsen with the on-going dry spell. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition fair in the mixed cropping and irrigated livelihood zones but very poor and deteriorating in Pastoral, marginal mixed and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. The worsening condition in all livelihood zones is a result of lack of across the county. The remaining forage is estimated to last for one to one-half months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their traditional grazing grounds have now started movements to access pasture, browse and water in their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders since the pasture near their homes is now exhausted. Quantity The quantity of pasture and browse within the County is currently poor with a diminishing trend and this is attributed to no showers experienced across the County. Lack of precipitation has adversely affected regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quantity is estimated to last for one to one-half months on average. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources No substantial amount of rainfall was received within the month of February resulting to increased water stress levels. In the pastoral, marginal mixed and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability decreased due to no water pan recharge and decreased river flows. In irrigated and mixed cropping zones water access is fair especially highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures have been increasing significantly during the month to about (25-33o Celsius) resulting to high evaporation rates in water pans, currently most pans are at 40-55 capacity. This is expected to last about 1 -2 months. Water quantity and quality is fair in all livelihood zones with more than 4 sentinel sites reporting reduction in water borne diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods decreased from 20,865 in January to 19,182 in February. This can be attributed to herding dynamics which include out migrations in search of water and pasture. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists who were accessing pastoral resources near their homes have now started moving towards dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani,Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong,Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders). Pastoralists who were at Laikipia ranches are migrating towards Orus, Amaya, Chepkalacha, Tangulbei, Mukutani and Arabal. Pastoralists from Lower Kerio are heading towrds Kasarani, Kainuk, lomelo and Kandugoi along Turkana border. Pastoralists from Maron and Kositei are moving towards Kalabata and Chemoe. There is need to sustain harmonious and peaceful situation that is currently experienced to ensure pastoral resources at fall back convergence zones are shared harmoniously. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county deteriorated especially in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. This is attributed reduced water and pastures availability for livestock consumption .Livestock now walk long distances in search of water, pasture and browse. Lack of rainfall and high temperatures being experienced ensured no regeneration of pasture. Generally 2-3 ribs were visible in cattle. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks reported, however CCPP, PPR, ECF, Diarrhoea and heart water remained endemic across the livelihood zones. CCPP cases in cattle were reported in Kaptuya, Kolloa, Yatya and Akoret despite vaccination campaign had been undertaken by the County Government. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Yatya Goats and Sheep. 82 sheep and goats Kapenguria Cattle Akoret, Yatya, Goats, Sheep and cattle. Yatya, Kolloa, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kiserian Cattle 5 cows Diarrhoea Kolloa, Sheep Mange Yatya Goats 13 goats Red water Akoret Goats and sheep Worms Kiserian Sheep and goats Heart water Yatya Goats and sheep 116 shoats Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County was 30 bottles (750ml) in the month of February 2016 compared to 40 bottles (750ml) of the month of January. There was a decrease in production compared to last month. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above normal average of 26 bottles. This decline in milk production is attributed to lack rainfall which has led to deterioration of browse and pasture condition. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths FEBRUARY 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 1 341 TOTAL 1 426 Fig.16 The total livestock units dying increased slightly to 433 from 426 in January due to reduced predation and livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Planting and Area planted No crops were planted within the month. Farmers are currently busy with land preparation in readiness for planting during long rains season due in March. In irrigated zones crops are in the fields growing well. 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Generally all livelihood zones are preparing their farms for planting in March and April. 2.2.2 Harvest Currently there are no harvests 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant decrease in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh an increase from Ksh 14,305 in January and goats at Ksh 2,178 a slight decrease from Ksh 2,781 in January Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (59), due to decreasing livestock prices and increasing food prices. Fig.17 In February, the TOT for Baringo County amounted to 52 which is a slight increase from 46 attributed to slight decreasing of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 11,478 in February. Compared to the month of January (Ksh 14,305), the prices dropped. This is attributed to market dynamics and given the deterioration of current cattle body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 6 as shown on the graph. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 13, 600. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of February was Ksh 2, 178. In comparison to the month of January, where the average price of a medium size goat was Kshs.2, 781. The prices in February slightly decreased. The price decrease is attributed to the market dynamics. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 232 owing fair pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. Fig.20 The average sheep price slightly decreased from Ksh 2,331 in January to Ksh 2,117 in February showing downward trend. The current price was higher than the long term average of Ksh.1, 631. The decrease in prices is attributed to market dynamics. Irrigated cropping species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh 2,500 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest price of Ksh 1, 879. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of January, 83 Camels were sold at an average price of Ksh 29,333 an increase from Ksh 25,250 price of January owing to market dynamics. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle remained at Ksh 39 within the month of February. This is attributed to market stability. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month of February decreased at Ksh 39 from Ksh. 41 last month. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are higher than the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.45 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of February was Ksh 47. In comparison to the month of January, where the average price per kilogram of Posho was Ksh 49, the prices have decreased in the end of February. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the Pastoral-All Species livelihood zone (Ksh 51) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of February was Ksh 97. In comparison to the month of January, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.108 the prices have decreased by the end of February. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above the long term average by 12 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the Pastoral-All species livelihood zone (Ksh 108) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 27 bottles (750 ml) in the month of February. In comparison to the month of January, where the average milk consumed per household was 35 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level decreased within the month of February. This is attributed to lack of short rains which have declined the milk production. In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 25 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of January 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In February, the water availability is fair. Temperatures also significantly increased. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Water pans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Natan, Kosile, Kagir and Kamencho in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of February increased in comparison to that of January. This is attributed to onset of dry spell short which depleted the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly increased from 4 km in January to 4.7 km in February. This is attributed to lack of rains resulting to no regeneration of pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (6.8 km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (0.7 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is slight increase in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 12.2 in January to 12.2 in February, this can be attributed mainly to reduced availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35.2 but a slight dropt from that of last month (35,5). Katikit area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in February due to increased diarrhoeal cases in children and Kapenguria still recorded the highest reduction as result of increased supplementary feeding outreaches for children .The general upward trend is as a result of higher number of households having decreased access to basic food especially milk.. SENTINEL SITE TREND BREAKDOWN TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 14.33 13.76 AVERAGE 1.562 14.187 128.187 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2010-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of February was 13. In comparison to the month of January, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 12.2, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years deteriorated within the month of February. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Most schools in East Pokot are still affected by massive Pokot community male initiation exercise undertaken mainly on the school going boys especially in Churo and Tangulbei divisions occasioning very low school attendance in schools BARINGO SOUTH Losampurmpur primary school due to insecurity Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 within the month of February. 5.0 ONGOING INTERVENTIONS Non-food interventions Note the following. County government is fencingprotecting Kinyach water pan Auction yard and shop stalls are being constructed by county government and DRSLP project World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools Keriwork dispensary construction is ongoing JICA sunk boreholes in Chesekem and Kipchemoi World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Cattle dip construction by County government is ongoing at Seronu near Tangulbei Dispensary construction is ongoing at Keriwok near Komolion FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County Government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa Food Items Barpello mission is supplying food to vulnerable 100 beneficiaries World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary EMERGING ISSUES 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county experienced minimal livestock raids especially at normal grazing convergence zones. However flare ups were witnessed in Mbechot and Sandai areas in Baringo south sub county pitting Tugen and Ilchamus communities. The fracas were occasioned by criminal killing of man which triggered deadly revenge attacks from the bereaved community resulting to loss of two other lives and scores of livestock stolen. Currently the county security team are on the ground to ensure peace, order and normalcy is restored. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives especially at this season where Pokot male initiation ceremonies are ongoing across East Pokot Sub County. Usually, there is tendency of the graduating initiates to raid livestock from neighbouring communities for dowry payment. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Akoret, Maron 64 shoats Kolloa, Maron 25 shoats Hyena Akoret,Kolloa, Maron 50-shoats Stray dogs Kolloa, Maron 34 goats Leopard Maron 1 cow Snake bite Maron 2 people injured 6.3 Migration limited to migrations of persons. The insecurity situation occasioned people migrations from Losampurmpur to Longewan and Mpejeto to Sandai and Arabal in search of peace and stability. 6.4 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently at medium level due to onset of dry spells within the month .The water stress level increased especially in pastoral areas, but in mixed farming and irrigated livelihoods zones water is still available. This eventually has led to an increased livestock movements in search for pasture and water in agro pastoral and pastoral zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also declined due to dry spell. This will worsen the terms of trade due to depletion of pastoral purchasing power occasioned by emaciation of livestock presented to the markets for sale. The food security situation is worsening and the County is food secure but on downward trend this is expected to improve once long rains sets in next month. RECOMMENDATIONS Kenya Wild Services needs to take action including possibility of compensation on livestock and human lives lost on persistent human wildlife conflict among pastoralist. For instance, in Kolloa, 1 person lost life through snake bite in February. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasararani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of Akoret, Malaso, Silale, Paka, Orus, Tangulbei, Kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasarani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, Game Reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, RugusArabalMakutani, Kasarani, Laikipia, Samburu, Loiwat Kinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in East Pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2016 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 5.00 mm received within the month of December, which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges in East Pokot, Eldamaravin, and Baringo south, Baringo North and Mogotio. This is attributed to depressed rainfall received in better part of December. Water in the pans is below normal (25-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is dwindling in both quality and quantity. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. Livestock body condition is fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal ranges but projected to reduce further in the next one month due to reducing quality of forage. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods but on a reducing trend. Distances to water sources for households are increasing drastically and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: Number of kids at risk of malnutrition is currently above normal at 15 but projected to increase in Pastoral livelihood zones. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal, water contamination reported in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 5(7) 1 147(45)40 80-120 VCI-3month 27(21) 24 50 (55) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(25-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(2-4 Ribs visible) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 26 - 76 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(Maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(Maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 10 wards reported 0-2 wards DECEMBER EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Fig.1 In the month of December, first dekad received some rains; the 2nd dekad received no rains. The onset of OND season rains was normal. In comparison with long term the onset was early. The dekadal rainfall distribution was poor with only 1st dekad recording very little rains of 5.3mm. Generally, the OND season rains are currently erratic in spatial distribution and its cessation is expected within the month. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) Average (2009-2013) 6,85 190,8 161,3 101,5 174,8 Rainfall in mm Rainfall trends Fig.2 The County received an average rainfall of 5.00 mm within the month of December. In comparison to LTA, the current rainfall is below normal to the long-term rainfall average of 147 Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-35ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUB COUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.3 Source ARV RFE In the Figure above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 7.00 mm within the month of December. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 45.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.4.Source ARV RFE In the Figure.4. Above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 1.00 mm within the month of December. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 40.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. 1.1.3 Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) The December SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for November for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 27.35 21.31 and 23.6 respectively. Mogotio and Tiaty currently below normal indicating moderate drought as reflected in Fig.5. With the whole County experiencing moderate drought. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 26th December 2016 BARINGO County 27.35 Negative trend with all sub-counties, except Central, in the moderate vegetation deficit band. The short rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in January and February, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central 42. 29 Eldama Mogotio 21.31 North 28.75 South 32.13 Tiaty Fig.5.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates moderate drought in 5 sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty and Mogotio being the worst affected. Fig.6.Source BOKU Fig.7 Source BOKU In Fig.7 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 27.35, which has reduced compared to the month of November. This trend is expected to worsen with the depressed short rains. Baringo County is currently experiencing moderate drought 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (72) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county but expected to change with ongoing short rains. The pasture is estimated to last for 1 month. Livestock from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones, Livestock in Ribko and Kolloa wards have moved to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones in search for pasture and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, and Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County in search for pasture. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods the fair (70). The situation is normal for the county. The browse is still palatable and quantity is good for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The browse quality is expected to improve with the ongoing short rains. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.8 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were traditional rivers and water wells (29) followed by pans and dams (22) Most wards received no rains in the 2nd Dekad of December in all wards. The availability of water in the wards is poor. No water points recharge was experienced. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at above 30ocelsius. Currently most water pans volume capacity is at below 40 of normal. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Water quantity and quality is deteriorating in all livelihood zones with over 5 wards reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Water Source Distance Water Source Distance 2016 Fig.9 The average distance from the households to water sources increased to 8.5 km in the month of December in comparison to that of 5 km in November. This is attributed to long dry spell, poor water sources recharge from the short rains and dry up of available sources. With the pastoral regions of the county being most affected. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances to water sources as compared to those in irrigated i.e. 19km and 7km respectively. 1.3.3 Livestock access Water Source Grazing Distance 2016 Fig.14 Grazing distance increased from 6.5 km in November to 7.6 km in December. This is attributed to declining pastures and browse together with increasing watering distances in pastoral areas. Households in Pastoral all species livelihood zone covered the longest distances of 20km to grazing areas as compared to 1km covered by those in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. B. DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. 1 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is fair to poor especially for cattle across the livelihood zones. As attributed to deteriorating water and forage quality and quantity in the county. 2-3 ribs were visible in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most pastoralists have started migrating to their fall back grazing grounds due to scarcity of pasture, browse and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills are moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya are moving towards Arabal and Mukutani. No significant migration was reported in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases Cases Foot and mouth disease outbreak were reported in all pastoral areas. CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 40 sheep and goats Ilchamus, Tirioko and Ribko and kerio valley Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Shoats 5 shoats Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Cattle 2 cows Diarrhoea Tangulbei, Kolloa, Sheep Heart water Saimo soi Shoats 119 shoats Tirioko MANGE Saimo soi Shoats 24 shoats WORMS Mukutani All livestock RED WATER Tirioko, Akoret Cattle Mukutani Chicken Fig.10 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household decreased to 1.7 litres in December compared to 2.5 litres in November. In comparison to the long-term mean, the current production is below the normal average of 1.8 litres. The decreased milk production is attributed no showers received in November-December which resulted to the poor pasture and browse conditions. Fig. 11 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize crop in all the wards has been harvested. The yields were good apart from a few areas in Kerio valley region where the crop was affected by depressed rains. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. C. MARKET PERFORMANCE 3.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Long Term Mean 14087 12133 11908 12921 11049 13137 11101 11726 14033 14474 16090 17207 14305 11478 11557 12319 12607 12655 13961 13821 13408 13481 13000 12710 10700 9535 9411 10770 10387 10468 6239 7472 12539 11639 13333 14479 Avg Price Cattle Prices 2016 Fig.12 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh 12,710 in December compared to Novembers (Ksh 13,000. This is attributed to deteriorating forage quality and deteriorating animals body condition. The prices were below the long-term mean by 19 . Cattle species in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone maintained the highest average price of Ksh 21,605. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Long Term Mean 2928 2513 2713 2498 2370 2473 2131 2363 2445 2448 2631 2707 2781 2178 2293 2359 2410 2606 2585,22574,12338,92509,32783,3 2397 Goat Market Price Goat Market Price 2016 Fig.13 The average price of a goat in the month of December decreased to Ksh 2,397 compared to Ksh2,783 reported in November. This is attributed to the deterioration of forage quality and increased watering distances resulting to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. Agro pastoral zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 200. 3.2 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Maize Market Price Maize Market Price 2016 Fig.14 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh. 48 similar to that recorded in November. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh 42 at this time of the year. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.55 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the lowest price of Ksh.39. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.15 The average Posho price per kilogram was Ksh.51. in December, which was above the Long- term average of Ksh.47 at this time of the year. This is attributed to market dynamics at play in the local markets. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 58) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 45 due to easier availability in the local markets 3.2.3 Beans Prices Beans Prices 2016 Fig.16 The average price per kilogram Beans decreased at Kshs 106 in December as compared to Ksh.123 in November. This is attributed to Market dynamics in the local markets and households respectively. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 115) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 17 Average Terms of trade are currently at 50-kilogram cereal per goat sold. Compared to 58 kilogram per goat sold in the month of November, the terms of trade have dropped. This is attributed declining animal prices and shrinking cereal supplies. The least ratio was recorded in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 69 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest ratio at 83. The Terms of Trade were fairly comparable to the long-term average of 49, indicating declining purchasing power to the pastoralists. D. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 1.8 litres in the month of November to 1.6 litres in December. This is attributed to poor milk production and increased livestock movements. In comparison with a normal year of 1.7 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk Consumption(litre) 2016 Fig 18 Food Consumption Score Fig.19 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was acceptable. Pastoral livelihood zone reported some poor FCS. Agro pastoral livelihood was the most food secure due to fair crop harvests. This normal situation for the county. Health and Nutrition Status In December, 629 children under five years were screened. Among them 127 were at risk of malnutrition while 97 were mid at risk, 27 were at moderate level and 3 had severe malnutrition status. 4.3.1 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 20 The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of December was similar to the LTA of 15. The nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has remained relatively stable. 4.4 Coping Strategy 4.4.1 Coping Strategy Index Fig.21 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19, followed by fishing livelihood zone at index 13. The agro pastoral and irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.9 within the month of December. 4.5 Emerging Issues 4.5.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in Kiserian and Nasoguro areas in Baringo South where one RDU officer was injured and dozens of livestock stolen. Government security officers have been deployed to the conflict area to restore peace. The tension is still high in those areas. The Kollowa Marakwet borders remained calm after vigorous peace building intervention from the national and county government security and political leaders. Over 10 cows were stolen from Chemoe in Yatya. 4.5.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko 16 goats Ribko 12 goats Hyena Ribko 30-goats Fig.28 4.5.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents have moved from Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian to Mochongoi and Marigat due conflicts for pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 4.6 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to poor performance OND rains. The drought situation worsened due to the prolonged spell across all wards. Water access and availability has continued to diminish and will likely worsen given the current prevailing conditions in the County especially in pastoral areas. Given that existing water sources never recharged full and current water source are at 30-40 volume of normal capacity. The ongoing Livestock movements from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones and Ribko and Kolloa wards to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones will avail the much need pasture and water to the animals but will likely trigger conflicts among the different pastoral groups. The pasture condition remains poor across pastoral and agro pastoral zones; browse condition is fair in all livelihood zones, the trend is likely to worsen in the coming months due to poor performance of OND rains. E. On-Going Interventions Non-food interventions 1. Girls dormitory in Komolion, Korossi primary and Kapyosha ECD classroom under construction by under CDF Tiaty. 2. Loyeya cattle dip construction ongoing 3. Kipnai and Cheptaran dispensary, Chemakutan cattle dip and Cheptalamach water pan are being constructed by County government. 4. Tilingwa and Tuwit classrooms being contructed by CDF Tiaty 5. FMD and PPR disease vaccination is ongoing across the county being supported by RPLRP 6. Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government 7. JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes 8. Baringo North CDF issued water tanks Rormoch and Kosile primary schools 9. Chemoe cattle dip in now operational 10. Auction yard and shop stalls are almost complete, being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. 11. Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing 12. CFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus. 13. , Endao and Ilchamus. Sector Recommendations Genaral Recommendations: County security teams needs to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Nasoguro Rugus, Mukutani Kiserian and Arabal where flare ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Rapid assessment needs to be conducted in agro pastoral areas to provide evidence based planning and response. Sectoral response plans needs to be activated Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following critical boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Kamurio Dispensary requires nurse quarters b) Maron Dispensary requires maternity wing c) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. d) The HealthNutritional sector-working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. e) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Chesawach, Nyakwala and Napur School needs ECD teacher, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. c) Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported across all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emaciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2016 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2016 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show no much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Below normal rainfall of 54.00 mm received within the month of August which is below average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is above normal ranges. This is attributed to off season long rains received in better part of July. Water in the pans is above normal (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are still accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones but Pastoral livelihood is reducing in both quality and quantity. Livestock body condition is fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges. Attributed to sustained availability of forage and water for livestock. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 10.5 this is below the threshold point of 15. A slight increase compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is within normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL STABLE STABLE AGROPASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 54(69)28 206(107)55 80-120 VCI-3month 73(71)75 54 (55) 52 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 5(1 Rib visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by May) 34,318Ha(Maize) 20,320Ha(Beans) LTA (38,140Ha) LTA(19,626Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by June 2016) 1,037,871(Maize) 305,513(Beans) LTA(800,650) LTA(269,148) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites AUGUST EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 54.00 mm within the month of August. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 206 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-55ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 69.00 mm within the month of August. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 107.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 28.00 mm within the month of August. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 55.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals below normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The August SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal. Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for August for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 66.85, 70.75 and 75.02 respectively all were above normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within August. With the ceasession of long rains the situation is expected to deteriorate. Fig.5.Source BOKU Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought COUNTY County VCI as at August BARINGO County 72.73 No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on worsening trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing stressed conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving but expected to change with the onset of the dry spell. Central 66.85 Eldama 64.92 Mogotio 70.75 North 74.23 South 73.44 Tiaty 75.02 Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on deteriorating trend in Baringo County, projected to change with the ceasession of going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 73 which has remained stable compared to the month of July. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the onset of the dry spell. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 75, this is above normal. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the cessation of long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 71 of growth. This trend is expected to change with the ceasession of long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Quantity The pasture and browse condition remained fair to poor in all livelihood zones. This is attributed to the sporadic off season rains that were received in some parts of the county. The forage is estimated to last for 2 to 3 months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana) borders are still at their traditional grazing grounds due to availability of pasture, browse and water. Quality The quality of forage within the County is fair especially browse is still green, fresh and palatable for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The pasture and browse quality is expected to decline with the impending onset of the dry spell. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources The month of August was partially wet, with sporadic off-season rainfall recorded in all sub counties apart from Akoret, Kerio valley region and Kiserian which never received rainfall. In the pastoral, marginal mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability remained good. In irrigated and mixed farming zones water access also remained good especially the highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are rivers, water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures remained low during the month at about (22-27ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 70 .This is expected to last 2-3 months. Water quantity and quality is good in all livelihood zones with only 1 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED MEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods in 9 sentinel sites was 11,024 in the month of August as compared to 10,755 in July. This was attributed to the increase in the livestock births. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Livestock are still at their traditional grazing zones because of the easy access to good pasture and browse. In the month of August there were no out migration reported but intra-migrations were noticed in some areas such as Napur to Chepelow and Kotulpogh to Chemantas in East Pokot in search for pasture and water. There were no migrations in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub- counties. Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county remained fair to good in all livelihood zones. This is still attributed to fair pasture, forage and water availability for livestock consumption. The grazing zones are regenerating fast. Generally 1-2 ribs were visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported; however CCPP and PPR remained endemic in Yatya, Akoret, Maron and Loiwat where more than 150 shoats were lost. Disease Area Reported Livestock CCPPPPR Yatya, Akoret, Maron, Kerio valley Goats and Sheep. Heart Water Yatya, Akoret Goats Yatya, Cattle Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County from 43 bottles (750ml) in July to 40 bottles in August. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is above normal average of 37 bottles. The decline in milk production is attributed to mainly dwindling forage conditions. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths AUGUST 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES TOTAL Fig.16 The total livestock units dying decreased in August by one to 295 from 296 in July. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize and beans have been harvested in most of the sentinel sites. Millet, sorghum, beans and cowpeas have also been harvested in Yatya the harvest was good due to the well distribution of the rainfall in the county. 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was slight drop in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 13,821 a decrease from Ksh 13961 in July and goats at Ksh 2,738 an increase from Ksh 2,835 in July. Terms of trade is at 42 this is below the long-term mean of 77. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (56), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In August, the TOT for Baringo County is at 42 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the lower side, which indicates an improving purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 13,821 in August. Compared to the month of July (Ksh 13,961), the prices slightly dropped. This is attributed to EWS revised sentinels sites and market dynamics given the current cattle good body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 14 as shown on the graph. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 16,000. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of August was Ksh 2,738. In comparison to the month of July, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2,835. The prices in August slightly decreased. The price increase is attributed to the improved livestock body condition. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 300 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of August, 1 camel was reported sold at Ksh 25,000. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 54 within the month of August. This is attributed to the decline in the amount of milk produced. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month remained Ksh. 41 in August. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are below the long term averages of Ksh 56. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.49 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.35. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of August remained at Ksh 47. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above the long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 52) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 40 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of August was Ksh 94. In comparison to the month of July, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.103 the prices have decreased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are below the long term average by 7.8 and this is attributed to bean cropping harvesting season. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 100) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 38 bottles (750 ml) in the month of July to 35 bottles in the month of August. This is attributed to good livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 35 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is above normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of August 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In August, water was readily available in the county due to the off season rains received. Temperatures also remained low. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Waterpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Loyeya borehole in Komolion Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Atirirai pan dam is not holding water Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources remained at 1.3km in the month of July in comparison to that of June. This is attributed to heavy rains which have recharged the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly increased from 2.4 km in July to 2.7km km in August. This is attributed to reduced rains Maron, Akoret and Kiserian resulting to a decrease in pasture and browse in these areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (4.3km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (0.8km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status The Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) has slightly increased from 10.2 in July to 10.5 in August. This is attributed mainly to the decrease in the availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 35, this is a decrease from that of last month (37). Maron and Orus area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in August due to increased diarrhoeal, malaria and cold flu cases. SENTINEL SITE August TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KISERIAN KISERIAN KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE AVERAGE Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of August was 10.5. In comparison to the month of June, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 10.2, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has slightly gone up, this is due to decrease in the production and consumption of milk. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Kongor, Chesawach, Napur and Pkaruru pre- schools closed due to lack ECDE teachers Kamurio primary school lacks staffroom Tukolkol ECD pupils have no classroom Nyakwala primary school pupils classroom Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 0.7 within the month of August. Non-food interventions Note the following. Loyeya cattle dip under construction Loyeya ECD classroom still under construction Construction of two classrooms and an office in Tukomoi primary school is ongoing JICA sunk Chesekem and Kipchemoi boreholes Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by the county government CDF Baringo North issued water tanks to Kosile, Rormoch and Kokir primary schools Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county remained fairly peaceful with minimal insecurity incidences being reported. One man was killed in Kiserian also about 80 goats, 60 shoats, 5 cows and 17 shoats were stolen in Natan, Natur,Chemoe and Kakir areas respectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock 1. Baboons Maron 15shoats 2. Lynx Maron 14shoats 3. Hyena Maron 38-shoats 4. Lynx Yatya 19-shoats 5. Hyena Yatya 21-Shoats 6.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There were no human migrations reported in the month. Food Security Prognosis The drought situation remained low due to good rains experienced. The water access and availability has improved especially in pastoral areas. This has reduced livestock movements in search for pasture and water in all livelihood zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also recharged. The term of trade is favourable hence enhanced purchasing power of the pastoral communities. Generally, County food security situation is stable, attributable to considerable off season precipitation received within the month. Sector Recommendations Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. The water committees need technical support and capacity building. The communities in these areas are sourcing water from afar water pans for livestock and domestic use. The affected boreholes are; -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access adequate clean water Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. Education a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Napur and Chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Loyeya, Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported in all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasararani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end drought signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of akoret, malaso, silale,paka, orus, tangulbei, kerio Body condition for grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei, Kasarani, lonyek, kainuk, samburu, rugus, arabal, makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, Rugusarabalmakutani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers,Rugusarabalmak utani, kasarani, laikipia, samburu, loiwatkinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in east pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report Warning Stages NORMAL: Environmental, Livestock and pastoral welfare indicators show no unusual fluctuations and remain in the expected seasonal range. ALERT: Environmental indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. This occurs within the entire county, or within localized regions; OR: Asset levels of households are still too low to provide an adequate subsistence level and vulnerability to food insecurity is still high. ALARM: Environmental and livestockagricultural indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges, affecting the local economy. This condition occurs in most parts of the county, and directly and indirectly threatens food security of pastoralists andor agro-pastoralists. EMERGENCY: All indicators are fluctuating outside normal ranges. Local production systems are collapsed as well as the dominant economy within the county. This situation affects the asset status and purchasing power of the population to an extent that welfare levels have been seriously worsened resulting in famine threat.",
            "Baringo 2016 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2016 Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show much unusual fluctuations from the expected seasonal range. Above normal rainfall of 360.00 mm received within the month of April which is above average at this time of the year. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is within normal ranges but on an improving trend. This is attributed to on-going long rains. Water in the pans is above normal (70-50) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing zones. Livestock body condition is good in agro-pastoral and irrigated but fair in Pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is within normal ranges but on an improving trend. Attributed to regeneration of pasture, browse and availability of water. Access indicators Terms of trade are still within normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods. Distances to water sources for households have decreased. Utilization indicators: MUAC is at 13.3 this is slightly below the threshold point of 15. Slight improvement compared to that of last month. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is below normal, no water contamination reported. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGROPASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 360(180)193 268(139)133 80-120 VCI-3month 41(32)40 47 (41) 33 35-50 of water in the water pan 4(70-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(2 Ribs visible) Milk Production (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 13.3 - 36.01 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.26 - 0.76 Milk Consumption (750ml BottlesHHMonth) 9.0 - 21.80 Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by April) 1,394Ha(maize) 1,663Ha(Beans) LTA (1,205Ha) LTA(1,276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (Maize)(by December 2015) 13,940(maize) 11,695(Beans) LTA(15,062) LTA(10,773) 90kg bags Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC () Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 1.02 Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 sentinel sites Current Drought Medium The drought risk situation is currently low but expected to improve with the ongoing long rains (MAM). Torrential rains were received and temperatures decreased significantly across all livelihood zones. In addition, water pans have fully recharged. Distances to household water points and grazing fields decreased due to adequate precipitation within the month. APRIL EW PHASE A.BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall The County received an average rainfall of 360.00 mm within the 4th week of April. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 268.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Temperatures recorded decreased significantly during the month to (25-30ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig.1. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUBCOUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Fig.2 above, Mogotio received an average rainfall of 180.00 mm within the month of April. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 139.0 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE In the Fig.3 above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 193.00 mm within the month of April. In comparison to the long term rainfall average of 133.00 mm, the current rainfall situation reveals above normal trend during this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal . Fig.4.Source BOKU 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for April for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county was 41 and 40 respectively all were within normal VCI range of 35-50 as reflected in Fig.6 except for Mogotio which is 32 and below normal ranges. This indicates that there was no drought in Baringo County as a whole within April but moderate drought reported in Mogotio but with the on-going long rains the situation is expected to improve. Color SPI Values Rainfall Category 1.5 or more Strongly above normal 1 to 1.5 Above normal -1 to 1 Normal -1.5 to -1 Below normal -1.5 Strongly below normal Fig.5.Source BOKU COUNTY County VCI as at February BARINGO County No drought conditions in all sub-counties .Normal conditions observed but on improving trend. Pastoral livelihood zones are currently experiencing stressed conditions. The vegetation conditions are generally on an improving trend due to the on-going long rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.6.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal conditions but on improving trend in Baringo County, projected to change further with the on-going long rains. All sub counties had normal vegetation conditions. Fig.7.Source BOKU Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 10 to 20 Severe Drought Extreme Drought Fig.8.Source BOKU In Fig.8 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 41 but on an improving trend compared to the month of March. This trend is expected to improve with the ongoing long rains. Fig.9.Source BOKU In Fig. 9 above, Baringo Tiaty had vegetation cover of 32, but currently on improving trend . This trend is expected to improve with the ongoing long rains. Fig.10.Source BOKU In Fig.10 above, Baringo Mogotio had vegetation cover of 40 of growth. This is on a reducing trend as compared to the month of March (50). This trend is expected to improve with the ongoing long rainy season. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions) Pasture and Browse Quality The pasture and browse condition is regenerating in all livelihood zones. This is attributed to ongoing rains across the county. The new sprouting forage is estimated to last for 3 to 4 months .Most pastoralists who were grazing at their normal dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kainuk, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders are now migrating back to their traditional grazing grounds to access new pasture, browse and water near home. Quantity The quantity of pasture and browse within the County is fair with an improving trend and this is attributed to heavy showers experienced across the County. Lack of adequate precipitation adversely affected regeneration of the pastures across all livelihood zones. The pasture and browse quantity is estimated through the long rains season. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Substantial amount of rainfall was received within the month of April. In the pastoral, marginal mixed and agro pastoral livelihood zones water access and availability improved due to increased water pan recharge and sufficient river flows. In irrigated and mixed cropping zones water access is good especially highlands. Currently the main water sources across pastoral areas are rivers, water pans and boreholes. Surface temperatures have reduced significantly during the month to about (20-28ocelsius). Currently most pans volume capacity is at above 70 .This is expected to last 2-3 months. Water quantity and quality is good in mixed and marginal mixed livelihood zones but fair in pastoral livelihood zones with more than 4 sentinel sites reporting water borne and diarrhoeal cases. Fig.11 MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE OWNED CAMEL OWNED GOAT OWNED SHEEP OWNED AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES Tentative scoring for assessment of state of water sources INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE of water in the pans DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION Below 15 All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts STRONGLY INADEQUATE 35-15 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood INADEQUATE 50-35 Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to spread communicable diseases and to degradation of rangeland 4 DECLINING 70-50 The water availability is below normal for the period NORMAL 100-70 The water availability is normal for the period The water availability is above normal for the period TOTAL Fig.12 The total livestock owned across all the livelihoods increased from 19,507 in March to 19,974 in April. This can be attributed to herding dynamics which include in migrations in search of improving water and pasture conditions. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Pastoralists who were accessing pastoral resources at dry season convergence zones (Arabal, Mukutani, Laikipia ranches, Kalabata, Kamatong, Malaso, Kadungoi, Chemoe, Yatya, Kasarani, Turkana borders) have started migrating back to their traditional zones to access regenerating pasture and browseThis is expected to reduce pastoral resource conflicts among neighbouring communities. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county remained poor to fair in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. This is still attributed to reduced pastures availability for livestock consumption, the dry forage that was sustaining the livestock were washed away by the on going torrential rains .Livestock trekking distances in search of water, pasture and browse reduced slightly. The grazing zones are regenerating fast. Generally 2-4 ribs were visible in cattle. Scoring Chart Current Status BODY CONDITIONS Visible SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left 5 Above 1 Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible 5 Above 2 Thin fore ribs visible 3-4 Ribs Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible 2 Ribs Alert Moderate. neither fat nor thin 1 Rib NormalAlert Good smooth appearance No Rib Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fig.13 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases No outstanding disease outbreaks were reported, however CCPP, ECF, Diarrhoea and heart water remained endemic across the livelihood zones. ECF cases in cattle were reported in Kapenguria, Yatya, and Kiserian. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Yatya, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Kapenguria, Goats and Sheep. 33 sheep and goats Kapenguria, Cattle Akoret Goats, Sheep and cattle. Kapenguria, Kiserian , Yatya Cattle 5 cows Diarrhoea Kolloa, Kapenguria, Sheep Mange Kiserian, Kolloa Goats Red water Akoret Goats and sheep Worms Kiserian Sheep and goats Heart water Yatya Goats and sheep 85 shoats Fig.14 2.1.5 Milk Production On average the milk produced per household within Baringo County remained at 22 bottles (750ml) in the same as that of the month of March. In comparison to the long term mean, the current production is below normal average of 30 bottles. This decline in milk production is attributed to inadequate regenerating browse and pasture condition for livestock. Fig.15 2.1.6 Livestock deaths APRIL 2016 LIVELIHOOD ZONE CATTLE GOATS SHEEP CAMEL AGROPASTORAL IRRIGATED CROPPING PASTORAL - ALL SPECIES 0 570 TOTAL 0 654 Fig.16 The total livestock units dying increased further to 654 from 380 in April due to livestock diseases. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most crops are at weeding stage. Farmers are busy weeding their farms. In irrigated zones crops are in the fields growing well. 2.2.2 Harvest Currently there are no crop harvests 3.0. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade There was significant increase in livestock prices; on average cattle was sold at Ksh 12,319 an increase from Ksh 11,557 in March and goats at Ksh 2,359 a slight increase from Ksh 2,293 in March Terms of trade were below the long-term mean. The price ratio was highest in pastoral all species livelihood zone (59), due to increasing food prices. Fig.17 In April, the TOT for Baringo County was at 53 . This is attributed to stability of goat prices at the markets. TOT is still within normal ranges for the period. As it can be noted, the indicator is on the low side, which indicates a good purchasing power by livestock producers. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Fig.18 The average prices of cattle were at Ksh 12,319 in April. Compared to the month of February (Ksh 11,557), the prices slightly improved. This is attributed to market dynamics given the current cattle fair body condition. The prices were above the long term mean by 16 as shown on the graph. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average cattle price of Ksh 13, 417. 3.1.3 Small Ruminants Prices Fig.19 The average price of a goat in the month of April was Ksh 2, 359. In comparison to the month of March, where the average price of a medium size goat was Ksh 2, 293. The prices in April slightly increased. The price increase is attributed to the market dynamics. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 500 owing good pasture and browse. The prices are above normal at this time of the year. 3.1.4 Camel Prices Pastoral- all species livelihood zone is the only livelihood zone that normally has sales of camels. In the month of April, no single camel was reported sold. 3.1.5 Milk Prices The current price of milk per bottle was at Ksh 52 within the month of April. This is attributed to market dynamics given the scarcity of the milk. Price of cereals and other food products 3.2.1 Maize Fig.21 The average maize price per kilogram for the month increased from Ksh 40 in March to Ksh. 44 in April. In comparison to the average maize price at this time of the year, the current maize prices are at par with the long term averages. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.46 compared to Irrigated cropping which had the lowest price of Ksh.40. 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.22 The average Posho price per kilogram for the month of April increased to Ksh 50 from Ksh 47 in March. In comparison to the average Posho price at this time of the year, the current Posho prices are above long term averages and this is attributed to market dynamics. Posho average prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 53) this is attributed to scarcity of the product at local markets. It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 45 due to easier availability in the local markets in Marigat. 3.2.3. Beans Fig.23 The average beans price per kilogram for the month of April was Ksh 101. In comparison to the month of March, where the average price per kilogram of beans was Kshs.96 the prices have slightly increased. In comparison to the average beans price at this time of the year, the current bean prices are above the long term average by 5 and this is attributed to market dynamics. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral species livelihood zone (Ksh 102) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.3. Access to Food and Water 3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption On average the milk consumed per household was 19 bottles (750 ml) in the month of April. In comparison to the month of March, where the average milk consumed per household was 20 bottles (750 ml), the milk consumption level decreased within the month. This is attributed to poor livestock body condition .In comparison with a normal year where on average milk consumed per household is 29 bottles (750 ml), the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Milk consumption trend in Baringo County as of April 2016 Fig.24 3.3.2 Availability of water for household consumption In April, the water availability varied across the county due to good rains. Temperatures also significantly decreased. The water facilities that require attention are listed in the table below. Wate rpans needing attention Areas with Broken Boreholes Kwarkawarian and nawe in Yatya, Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret Solar borehole near Kapedo Kapombo borehole needs completion Water Sources needing De-silting Source Areas Reported Spring Chewarany, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben in Maron, Orusion (Maron) Fig.25 3.3.3 Household access and Utilization Fig.26 The average distance from the households to the main water sources in the month of April decreased in comparison to that of March. This is attributed to ongoing rains which have recharged the water volumes in reservoirs. 3.3.4 Livestock access Fig.27 Grazing distance slightly decreased from 6.6 km in March to 4.7km in April. This is attributed to good rains resulting to substantial regeneration of pasture and browse in pastoral areas. Pastoral-All species livelihood zone cover more distances to grazing points (7.4km) and more than irrigated cropping livelihood zone (0.8 km). 4.0 UTILISATION INDICATORS Health and Nutrition Status There is slight drop in Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from 13.4 March to 13.3 in April, this is attributed mainly to availability of milk at the household level across sentinel sites; Komolion is still leading with 36 but a slight increase from that of last month (35.5). Loiwat area registered a significant increase of malnutrition cases in April due to increased diarrhoeal cases and Kapunyany recorded the highest reduction as result of improved sanitation and increased supplementary feeding for children. SENTINEL SITE April TREND BREAKDOWN 115-124 125-134 TOTAL AKORET AKORET ENDAO ENDAO KAPENGURIA KAPENGURIA KAPTUIYA KAPTUIYA KAPUNYANY KAPUNYANY KATIKIT KATIKIT KINYACH KINYACH KISERIAN KISERIAN KOLLOA KOLLOA KOMOLION KOMOLION LOIWAT LOIWAT MARON MARON NAKOKO NAKOKO NGAMBO NGAMBO YATYA YATYA AVERAGE 13.76 AVERAGE 0.1875 1.5625 15.1875 Fig.28 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2010-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 29 The percentage of children under the risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of April was 13.3. In comparison to the month of March, where the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition was 13.4, the nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years slightly improved within the month. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year. 4.1 Education SUB COUNTY SCHOOLS AT RISK OF CLOSURE EAST POKOT Kongor, Napur and Chesawach schools needs ECD teachers Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Fig. 30 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 1.2 within the month of April. 5.0 CURRENT INTERVENTIONS Non-food interventions Note the following. Ruko headquarters under construction by North Rangeland Trust Komolion dispensary got supplementary feeds from world vision Keriwork and Loyeya dispensary construction is ongoing Cattle dip under construction in Loyeya funded by county government Auction yard and shop stalls are being constructed by county government and DRSLP project In Kinyach and Kalabata. World vision is constructing water tanks in Chemintany and Kinyach primary schools CDF Baringo north issued water tanks to Rormoch, Kakir and Kosile primary schools World vision food distributed plumpy nuts to Komolion dispensary Cattle dip construction by County government at Cherumbo area in Kaptuiya is now completed. Borehole drilling is ongoing at Loropil area FFA projects on going in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo Loiwat ,Ngoron, Endao and Ngambo. County government is constructing Health facility in Cheptaran area in Kolloa JICA sunk boreholes in Chesekem and Kipchemoi. Food Items Barpello parish distributed food to 10 vulnerable households per village in Kolloa SFP feeding is ongoing in Yatya Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity tension is still high along Elgeyo Marakwet-Baringo county border. This was occasioned by an attack early April on Marakwet farmers which caused 2 fatalities and in retaliation attack Marakwet killed 2 Pokot men and seriously injured 1. The security officers have been deployed to apprehend the culprits and to ensure peace is restored. Small scale livestock raiding was reported in Chemoe, Kagir and Ngaratuko where over 100 goats and sheep were stolen and they have not been recovered. In Kiserian over 400 shoats were stolen and almost half have been recovered to date. Peace and compensation committees stakeholders need to upscale peace initiatives to ensure stolen livestock are always recovered effectively. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Akoret, Maron 42 shoats Maron 9 shoats Hyena Akoret, Kolloa 2 calves,153-shoats Leopard Akoret 1 cow, 2 camel Snake bite Maron 1 people injured 6.3 Migration limited to migrations of persons. There was human migration from Tot- Marakwet to Bapello, Kolloa and Loiwat due to flare ups between Pokot and Marakwet communities 6.4 Food Security Prognosis The drought situation is currently at low level due to ongoing long rains season .The water availability has improved especially in pastoral areas. This has reduced livestock movements in search for pasture and water in agro pastoral and pastoral zones. In addition levels of water in pans have also recharged. The terms of trade due is expected to improve with the long rains hence enhancing purchasing power of the community. The food security situation is likely to improve within the County due to ongoing long rains. Recommendations The water pans facilities which require attention include; Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya and Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. The following boreholes needs operational support; Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya, Kapau borehole in Akoret needs operational support, Napetot, Karun, Cherelio in Kolloa are broken, Solar borehole near Kapedo, Kapombo borehole needs completion. Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and therefore the county administration is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. Kenya Wild Services needs to take action including possibility of compensation on livestock and human lives lost on persistent human wildlife conflict among pastoralist. For instance, 2 I persons in Maron were bitten The HealthNutritional sector working committee to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) Implement food sector to work towards single pipeline food distribution. There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. Sector analysis and feedback on the early warning Bulletin to be enhanced to improve the bulletin content and linkage with community feedback and early action by stakeholders. The following schools in East Pokot needs support; Kongor, Napur and chesawach schools needs ECD teachers, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom Table 1 DROUGHT TRIGGER INDICATORS-BARINGO COUNTY PASTORAL LIVELIHOOD ZONE NORMAL ALERT ALARM EMERGENCY RECOVERY All environmental indicators are within normal ranges SPI-3month: -0.09and below VCI: 40 and above Socio-economic indicators Plenty of forage material Availability water normal Livestock body condition High birth rates - 50 calving rates livestock movements There is plenty household (4.5 litres) Watering at liberty from pans, streams, puddles Early Alert Meteorological drought indicators move out of normal ranges SPI3month: below -0.09 RFE: 80 of normal Weather forecast: rainfall below normal Socio-Economic Indicators All Normal Grass mature and starts drying Few cases of livestock disease outbreaks FMD, PPR, CBP, Some water sources drying up Trekking distances for water: 4- Frequency of drinking water: 2 times per day Milk 4-4.5 litres per cow Livestock body condition are good to fair for cattle and sheep; Good body condition for browser(goats, camel) Slight drop by about 5 of normal livestock market price Drop in no. of livestock for sale in markets: 5-10. Security tension starts over grazing and water resources Early Alarm Environmental indicators and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges. VCI-3month: below 30 zVI-3month: below -055 Water availability : inadequate Socio-Economic indicators Production:any 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, kerio, churo, tangulbei Poor animal body conditions4-5 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 1 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50 30-50 of farmersfarms have not planted 70-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 5-6 weeks of long rains Late Alarm. More than two production indicators and at least two access indicators (mainly markets fluctuations and declined purchasing power) are outside seasonal ranges. SPI: 3-6month -0.98 VCI-3month: below 30 State of pasture: poor and inadequate Water Access: the average distances to water sources more than x Emergency All indicators are outside normal ranges. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security Socio-Economic Indicators Production all Migration livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasararani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, game reserve animal conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattlesheepgoats Cattlesheepgoat deaths reported in more than 3 sentinel sites starvation Milk production reduced by 90-100 75-100 of farmersfarms have not planted 0-25 normal production realised Outbreak diseases- PPRCCPPFMD Failure of long rains The drought phase must have reached least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Socio-Economic indicators Pastures starts rejuvenating Water sources water starts filling condition improving People and Alert: Agricultural hydrological drought indicators move out of normal ranges VCI-3month: below 31 zVI-3month: below -056 Water availability :declining, below normal Socio-Economic indicatorsall within normal at this time but diminishing Diminishing water and pasture Long trekking distances to watering points(5-7km) Early migration of livestock dry season grazing areas of Akoret, Malaso, Silale,Paka, Orus, Tangulbei, Kerio. condition grazers:3-4 ribsDrop in milk availability per household to 3 litres per cow. Drop in no. of cattle for sale in markets by 11-20 of normal Further drop in livestock prices by 10-20 of normal prices Heightened security tension starts over grazing resources Incidences upsurge livestock disease-CCPP.PPR Delayed rainfall by 2 weeks long rains Socio-Economic indicators Productionany 2 Migration of livestock towards Malaso, Akoret, Kerio, Churo, Tangulbei, Kasarani, Lonyek, Kainuk, Samburu, Rugus, Arabal, Makutani, game reserve Poor animal body conditions5-6 ribs visible in cattle Cattlesheep deaths reported in at least 2 sentinel sites due to starvation Milk production reduced by 50-70 50-75 of farmersfarms have not planted 25-50 of normal crop production realised Outbreak of diseases-PPRCCPPFMD Delayed rainfall by 6-7 weeks long rains Accessany 2 2 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, ranchers, RugusArabalMakutani, Kasarani, Laikipia, Samburu, LoiwatKinyach 50-90 reduction in milk consumption 50-70 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20liter jerrican water in East Pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings Accessany 2 Minimum 3 Conflicts because of scarce grazing resources reported KWS, Ranchers,RugusArabalMak utani, Kasarani, Laikipia, Samburu, LoiwatKinyach 90-100 reduction in milk consumption 70-100 drop in livestock prices 50 increase of 20 liter jerrican water in East Pokot 50-70 increase in cereal prices 60-70 of the pans dry Minimum 5 schoolshealth centres receiving water trucking 2 schoolshealth centres closed due to water shortage 5 schools report 10 increase in enrolmentSMP Utilization any 1 50 of the sites have MUAC15 Average county MUAC 18 Reported consumption of dead livestock carcases in 2 sites 40 of the sentinel sites reporting diarrhoeascabies Increased media coverage on drought Increased drought coordination meetings cattle starts returning back to their original homes The agro- pastoralists starts preparing their lands Reviving of friendships, a lot of visitations Bull service sharing Cattle loaning Livestock diseases and many bloating cases report"
        },
        "DEWS_2017": {
            "Baringo 2017 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. 211.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of October. The October VCI values for Baringo County are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions. The Water level in water pans is above normal at 5 (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with 10 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 90 having moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is good with improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is above normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade still below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones, attributed current fall in livestock prices. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 13, which is below normal indicating stable trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal across all sub- counties. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiatty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 211.00 99 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 78(78) 78 58 (53) 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by October) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards OCTOBER EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 211.00 mm was recorded in October coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 99 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The October SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The October VCI values for Baringo County improved across all the sub-counties. All the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 31ST October 2017 BARINGO County 77.84 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. The off season and the OND rains have performed ABOVE normal rains which has positively impacted on the vegetation cover across all the livelihood zones. With the current OND rains in October, the VCI will continue to improve. Central 75.96 Eldama 75.24 Mogotio 78.21 North 73.28 South 83.15 Tiaty 78.24 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal drought status in 6 sub-counties in Baringo County (Baringo South and Eldamaravin having good vegetation cover. Fig.4.Source BOKU In October the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 78, which has improved tremendously compared to the month of September at 67. This trend is expected to improve further with the on-going rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained good to fair during the month of October in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods; the situation is normal but on an improving trend due to the off season rains being received. Pasture condition was good in irrigated livelihood. Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral livelihood is good with some few pockets still fair. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock. The browse quality is on improving trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were mainly rivers at 26, pan and dams at 24 and Traditional Water Wells at 23. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume in most water pans is above 100 of normal capacity as attributed to the rains received. This is expected to last for about three months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources decreased slightly to 3 km in the month of October as compared to 3.4 km in the month September; this was attributed to the rains received in the county during the month. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 4.5 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered less that 1 km. This is normal at this time of the year. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of October was above the long term average by 17 at 5.5km; Agro pastoral covered the longest distance of 10.3km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 0.9 km. This is attributed to availability of forage as influenced by the ongoing rainfall that has recharged most of the water sources. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In October Livestock body condition was Good smooth appearance (score 6) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of easy access to forage and water following rains received across all livelihoods. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns There has been no migration reported in all the wards; about 95 of livestock are in there traditional grazing zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported but CCPP, PPR, Heart water and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimosoi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Saimo soi Cattle Fig.12 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in October was 2.3 litres. The amount was above the long term average by 27. The situation is as a result of good pasture and browse condition across all livelihood zones and reduced grazing distances. Fig. 13 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently there are only about 70 of maize that survived the FAW is at grain filling, the 30 have been harvested . 80 of the beans planted during the off season rains are at harvesting stage with 20 at flowering stage. The expected production will be below average. 3. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle in October was below the long term average by 32 at Ksh.9, 822 the prices were lower as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 10,564. Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.17, 500 while the pastoral livelihood zone had the least prices of Ksh.8,750. The prices were attributed to market dynamics. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat in the month of October was Ksh.2,186 as compared to Ksh. 2,202 reported in September. The prices decreased in the month of October. This is attributed to market dynamics. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in October remained at Ksh.53. The price was however above the long- term average of Ksh. 44 at this time of the year by 21. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets and reopening of markets and resumption of normalcy in the insecure parts allowing for movements of goods and services 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of October were at Ksh. 59. This was above the Long-term average of time of the year by 23. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was Ksh. 108 in October; the price was above the long-term mean . The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 120 and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trades have decreased from 50.9 kilogram in September cereal per goat sold to 47.4 kilogram in the month of October. The current ToT is below the long-term average by 15. The decrease was due to the drop in the livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 82 while the Agro pastoral had the lowest at 31. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased slightly to 1.7 litres in the month of October as compared to 1.9 litres in the month of September. In comparison with a normal year of 1.6 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is slightly above normal by 6. Fig 21 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of October was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline FCS Poor in Baringo South and Tiaty only. Food security situation improved across all livelihood zones as compared to the month September. This was due good rains performance coupled with improving pasturebrowse and water availability. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of October was 13.58 compared to 14.1 in September; which is below LTA by 15. The slight decrease was due to low diarrhoea cases all livelihood Zones. Komolion ward recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 29 levels of malnutrition. 4.1.4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 16.7 followed by Pastoral at 15.7. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.3 within the month of October. 5.0.0 Ongoing Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa ,Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Pasture grass and seed harvesting in Marigat by NDMAWFP Promotion of micro-irrigation at household level through farm ponds technology by CIMADS Malaria outreaches in Tirioko, Silale and Ngoron by the KRCS Nutrition outreaches in 22 sites in Tiaty the areas include Kapau,Naudo, Seretion,Chesawach, Chewara, Chepkiriang. Riongo and Chesitet by KRCS and UNICEF Disease Surveillance and CCPP vaccination in Kinyach, Kipmnai by the Department of livestock Provision of beehives and Capacity building of groups on bee keeping by the Department of livestock and CIMADS. Supply of chicks to households by Department of livestock and RPLRP. Human disease surveillance by MOH and KRCS 5.1.2 Food interventions HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Protections ration supporting targeting households in 4 wards of East Pokot by Action Aid Kenya to the households with malnutrition cases. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Support to health and nutrition response interventions by Action Aid Kenya in Tiaty Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government and CIM. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Generally no major insecurity incidences were reported in the county. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret shoats Akoret, Ribko shoats Wild dogs Ngambo sheep Hyena Akoret, Ribko shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been no migration reported in all the wards. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation has improved but remains unstable due to under-production but this might change with good performance of OND rains. If the current short rains season rains continue, water access and pasture will continue to improve leading to full recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The forage condition remains good and is likely to improve across all livelihood zones. If the current conditions continue, food prices are likely to maintain a decreasing trend resulting into increased food accessibility and improving dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, few households (20) in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure ,while in irrigated cropping livelihood zone approximately 70 of the households will be food secure. 7.0. Sector Recommendations 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Community sensitization on WASH issues. d) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across County. e) Construction of farm ponds at households f) Provision of water treatment chemicals g) Reposition of fast moving spares. h) Repair of water bowzers and servicing of emergency response team vehicle. 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Catch-up campaign on immunization 7.1.4 .Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. c) Support to strategic roof water harvesting in institutions. 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of restocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. d) Prepositioning of assorted livestock supplementary feeds. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance, reporting and management of Fall Army Worm in the County. b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County.",
            "Baringo 2017 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. 97.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of November. The November VCI values for Baringo County are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions. The Water level in water pans is above normal at 5 (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with 10 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 90 having moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is good with improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade above normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods zones, attributed current fall in livestock prices. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 12, which is below normal indicating stable trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal across all sub- counties. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiaty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 97.00 192mm 80-120 VCI-3month 81(78) 87 55 (55) 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by October) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards NOVEMBER EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 97.00 mm was recorded in November coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 99 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The November SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The November VCI values for Baringo County improved across all the sub-counties. All the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 27th November 2017 BARINGO County 80.96 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. The OND rains have performed ABOVE normal rains which has positively impacted on the vegetation cover across all the livelihood zones. With the current OND rains in November, the VCI is expected to continue to improve. Central 76.84 Eldama 65.06 Mogotio 78.03 North 74.33 South 84.56 Tiaty 86.87 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal drought status in 6 sub-counties in Baringo County (Baringo South and Eldamaravin having good vegetation cover. Fig.4.Source BOKU In November the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 80.96, which has improved tremendously compared to the month of October at 77.84. This trend is expected to improve further with the on-going rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained good to fair during the month of November in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods; the situation is normal but on an improving trend due to the seasonal rains being received. Pasture condition was good in irrigated livelihood. Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral livelihood is good with some few pockets still fair. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock. The browse quality is on improving trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The main sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were, rivers at 28, Traditional Water Wells at 21 and pan and dams at 18 Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume in most water pans is above 100 of normal capacity as attributed to the rains received. This is expected to last for about three months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources increased slightly to 3.2 km in the month of November , This is normal at this time of the year compared to long term average. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 5 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered less that 1 km. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of November was above the long term average by 57 at 5.6km; Agro pastoral covered the longest distance of 7km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 0.5 km. This is attributed to availability of forage as influenced by the ongoing rainfall that has recharged most of the water sources. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the month of November; Livestock body condition was Good smooth appearance (score 6) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of easy access to forage and water following rains received across all livelihoods. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. There has been no migration reported in all the wards; about 95 of livestock are in there traditional grazing zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported but CCPP, PPR, and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimo soi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi,kolloa Shoats Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Saimo soi, Kolloa Ribko Cattle Fig.12 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in November was 1.9 litres. The amount was similar to the long term average The situation is as a result of good pasture and browse condition across all livelihood zones and reduced grazing distances. Fig. 13 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize crops have been harvested in all the wards. The yields were poor; below average as the crops were affected by the fall army worm. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle increased in the month of November by 27 at Ksh. 12,440 as compared to the month of October at Ksh. 9,822. The price was below the long term average by 23. Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.13,425 while the pastoral livelihood zone had the least average prices of Ksh.9,244. The prices were attributed to improved livestock body conditions. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat increased from Ksh.2, 186 in the month of October to Ksh. 2,420 reported in November. The prices were attributed to good livestock body conditions. However the prices are still below the LTA by 8. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in November was at Ksh.50. The price was however above the long- term average of Ksh. 41 at this time of the year by 22. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 Posho prices decreased in the month of November at Ksh. 55 from Ksh. 59 in October. This was above the Long-term average of time of the year by 12. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans increased to Ksh. 121 in November as compared to Ksh. 108 in the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 23. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 130 and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade increased by 19 from 47.4 in October cereal per goat sold to 56.4 kilogram in the month of November. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 15. The increase was due to the hiking in the livestock prices. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest at 71.6 while the Irrigated had the lowest at 46.8. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household increased slightly to 1.7 litres in the month of November as compared to 1.7 litres in the month of October. The amount was above the Long Term Average by 6. Fig 2 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of November was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline FCS and Poor in Baringo North and Tiaty only. Food security situation improved across all livelihood zones as compared to the previous month. This was due good rains performance coupled with improving pasturebrowse and water availability. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 During the month of November 12.24 was the percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County; compared to October 13.58. The number was below LTA by 23.5. The decrease was due tio availability of milk in the households in all livelihood Zones. Komolion ward recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 24 levels of malnutrition. 4.1 .4 .Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 15.8 followed by Agro-Pastoral at 14. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.9 in the month of November. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa ,Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Pasture establishment and post-harvest training in Kadogoi, Kokwatoto, Salabani , Koriema and Kapkuikui by WFP NDMA Technical training on adaptable agronomic systems e,g poultry farming, bee keeping, cattle keeping , aloe vera in Koriema WFP NDMA Asset creation at household level by WFPNDMAWVK Water harvesting for crop production by CIMADS Capacity building on post harvest practises by MOA Control of fall Army warm on irrigated maize and late planted crops by MOA Support of livestock disease control by RPLP through World BankCounty Government Security surveillance in Kapedo and East Pokot by National Government 5.1.2 Food interventions Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Protections ration supporting targeting households in 4 wards of East Pokot by Action Aid Kenya to the households with malnutrition cases. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Support to health and nutrition response interventions by Action Aid Kenya in Tiaty Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government and CIM. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Generally no major insecurity incidences were reported in the county apart from the current insecurity tension being experienced in Kapedo where police officers were killed by bandits. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret shoats Akoret, Ribko shoats Wild dogs Ngambo, kolloa sheep Hyena Akoret, Ribko shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been minimal inter sub-county migration reported in some wards. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation has improved but remains unstable due to under-production caused by fall Amy warm infestation and market dynamics. If the current short rains season rains continue, water access and pasture will continue to improve leading to full recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The forage condition remains good and is likely to improve across all livelihood zones. If the current conditions continue, food prices are likely to maintain a decreasing trend resulting into increased food accessibility and improving dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, few households (20) in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure ,while in irrigated cropping livelihood zone approximately 70 of the households will be food secure. Most livelihoods might experience Alert phase of drought from mid-January if the current seasonal rains stops therefore making households within Pastoral and Agro-pastoral food insecure. 7.0. Sector Recommendations 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Community sensitization on WASH issues. d) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across County. e) Construction of farm ponds at households f) Provision of water treatment chemicals g) Reposition of fast moving spares. h) Repair of water bowzers and servicing of emergency response team vehicle. 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Catch-up campaign on immunization 7.1.4 .Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. c) Support to strategic roof water harvesting in institutions. 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of restocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. d) Prepositioning of assorted livestock supplementary feeds. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance, reporting and management of Fall Army Worm in the County. b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County. c) Stockpiling of recommended pesticides.",
            "Baringo 2017 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. 108 mm of rainfall was received in the month of May. The May VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county were 18, 9.0 and 18 respectively. Mogotio, Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating severe drought. The Water level in water pans is below normal at 2(10-30) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity but on an improving trend. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zone but some have moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is still poor but improving across all livelihoods. Milk production is below normal and projected to improve with the onset of the long rains Over 3000 Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones. Distances to water sources for households are still high and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: Number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition is 25 which is above normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is above normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING IRRIGATED ALARM IMPROVING COUNTY ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 18(9)18 47 (50) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 2(10-30) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 1000 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 23 wards reported 0-2 wards MAY EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE An average rainfall of 36.00 mm was recorded by 2nd Dekad of May coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and cold weather conditions fairly comparable to the April weather conditions. Fig.1 In comparison to LTA of 23 mm, the current rainfall is below normal. Temperatures recorded decreased during the month to (30-35ocelsius). There were no other major climatologicalweather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) fig .2 In the 3rd decad of May, rainfall of 148.00 mm was recorded coupled with high temperatures, strong winds and dusty weather conditions fairly comparable to the April weather conditions. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The May SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The May VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 18, 9.0, 18 and 18 respectively. Mogotio, Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating severe drought as reflected in Fig.4. With the whole County experiencing severe vegetation deficit. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th March 2017 BARINGO County Positive trend with all sub-counties experienced though one subcounty (Mogotio) still in the extreme vegetation deficit band and 4 sub-counties in severe vegetation deficit. The long rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in June and July, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates severe drought in all sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty, Baringo North, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio being worst affected. Fig.4.Source BOKU Fig.6 Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 18, which has improved compared to 11 in the month of April. This trend is expected to improve with the current ongoing rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity is still poor (70) in all livelihood zones. The situation is still below normal for the county but expected to improve given the prevailing weather conditions. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods has improved but most pockets are still poor (58). The situation is abnormal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable but quantity is poor for livestock. The browse quality is expected to improve with the on-going light showers. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.7 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were Traditional Water Wells 26, Rivers and pan and dams both at (22); fairly comparable to the month of April at, 19.6, 23.9 and 19.6 respectively. The availability of water in the wards was still poor and on a worsening trend. The county received light showers but inadequate to recharge water sources. Currently most water pans volume is still below 10 of normal. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Both water quantity and quality is still poor across all livelihoods; 80 of the wards reported waterborne diseases and diarrhoeal cases. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The average distance from the households to water sources in the month of May was 9.5 km fairly comparable to that of April at 11.5 km. Attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the county; Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 18.9 km and 7.1 km respectively to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered 1 km. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.9 Grazing distance in May was slightly less as compared to that recorded in April at 11.4 km; the distance was 6.6km above the long term average. This is attributed to poor pasture and browse, increasing watering distances and banditry in pastoral areas. B.SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was very thin with no fat, bones visible especially for cattle in pastoral livelihood zones; thin fore ribs visible in Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. This is attributed to deteriorated water and poor forage quality and quantity in the county. This is expected to improve with the onset of the long rains. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlar Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs vi 4 Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head7 Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.10 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Most herds are moving back to their traditional grazing grounds but some pastoralists are still grazing their herds on their last phase of fall-back grazing grounds. Animals from Kasarani, Lomelo, Paka Hills have moved to Kapururu, Chemirot, Lowlands of Tiaty Hills and Loperton borders of Turkana County in search of pasture. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya are still in Arabal and Mukutani. Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia reported. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases . CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimo Soi, Kamurio, Goats and Sheep. 88 shoats Mogotio, Ilchamus, Tirioko and Ribko and kerio valley Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, shoats 23 shoats Saimo soi, Cattle 26 cattle Diarrhoea kolloa Sheep, goats 50 goats and 32 sheep Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, goats 68 shoats RED WATER Tirioko, Kamurio, Pkaruru cattle Fig.11 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in May was 1.6 litres a slight increase of 14.3 as compared to the previous month of April at 1.4 litres. This was attributed to regenerating of pasture in irrigated cropping as well as browse in pastoral livelihood zones as a result of the minimal rains received in the wards. Fig. 12 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have prepared their land (80). Planting has been done in Pekerra irrigation scheme and along the river banks. Some maize are at knee height and weeding is going on. In Saimo Soi ward farmers have not prepared their farms due to insecurity that has caused majority to flee their homes. In Kapenguria farmers have not planted due to insufficient rains. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.13 The average prices of cattle dropped by 3.4 from Ksh.6, 389 in April to Ksh. 6,167 in May; the price was below the long-term mean by 44.2. This is attributed to poor animal body condition due to poor forage quality. Irrigated livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 10,333 followed by agro pastoral at Ksh. 8,462 and pastoral at Ksh. 5,040. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.14 The average price of a goat in the month of May decreased slightly to Ksh.1, 430 as compared to Ksh.1, 496 reported in April. This is attributed to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year by 40. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2,697 and lowest price of Ksh 914 was recorded in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.15 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.73 in May, higher than Ksh.62 that recorded in April. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh.49 at this time of the year. This was due to the scarcity in the supply of the commodity and insecurity in the county. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Long Term Mean Posho Market Price Posho Market Price 2016 Fig.16 The average Posho price per kilogram was Ksh.83. in May, which was above the Long-term average of Ksh.57 at this time of the year; this was 18.6 increase from the previous month. This is attributed to market dynamics at play in the local markets. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 90). It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 65. 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.17 The average price per kilogram of beans increased to Ksh. 138 in May as compared to Ksh.127 in April; the price was above the long term mean by 28. The increase was due to scarcity of commodity, closure of markets due to insecurity and high demand for planting materials. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 150) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 120). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 18 Average Terms of trade is currently at 24-kilogram cereal per goat sold; Compared to the long term average of 67- kilogram per goat sold. The terms of trade have worsened. This is attributed to declining livestock prices and increasing food prices. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household reduced inconsiderably to 1.2 litres in the month of May as compared to 1.4 litres in the month of April. This was attributed to increased livestock movements as well as migration of households due to insecurity. In comparison with a normal year of 1.5 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year by 20. Fig 19 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.20 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was poor and borderline. All livelihoods zones reported some poor FCS. Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood were the most food insecure due to poor crop harvests and on-going drought. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 21 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of May was 25 compared to 26 in April; which is above the 47 LTA. This was due to minimal amounts of milk at household level and the constant migrations due to insecurity. 4.1.4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 22.3, followed by Agro-Pastoral at 20.2 and fishing livelihood zone at index 11.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2 within the month of May. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Water Trucking (MOW and NDMA) Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools CFA projects ongoing in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS. Livestock Supplementary Feeds (hay Concentrates) distribution by County Government and NDMA. Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision, Basic Health Care and Nutrition screening services, Case Management for Mal nutrition - SFP, OTP and FBP(KRCS) 5.1.2 Food interventions Relief food in Kolloa, Yatya, Ngambo and Akoret by KRC and National Government Livestock off-take and Slaughter destocking by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in, Kiserian, Arabal, area in Baringo South, 1 person was shot dead and 50 cattle stolen. 8 people were killed and several injured in Kapedo, 15 cattle and 20 goats were also stolen at Patipai near Kasarani. Many households have been displaced in Baringo North; Kakir, Ngaratuko,Chemangoi, Natan, Natur, Kapsepeiwa and Moi Nowin . They have moved to Sibilo, Kerio Valley, Endao, Koroto Cheparsait and Rondiwin. The military has been deployed to the conflict zones to flash out bandits and restore normalcy. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 22 shoats Akoret, Ribko 13 shoats Hyena Akoret, Ribko 42 shoats Crocodile Kolloa 33 shoats Fig.23 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents from Yatya, Chemoe, Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Sibilo, Kerio Valley, Endao, Koroto Cheparsait and Rondiwin and Kipsaraman due conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 6.2 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to poor rainfall performance in Baringo South, Baringo North and Tiaty. Water access and availability expected to improve if the rainfall performance improve. The existing water sources are at 10-15 volume of normal capacity and likely to last for one month. The on-going security operations have limited access to critical livelihood facilities by both humans and livestock and will likely exacerbate the current food insecurity situation in county The forage condition remains poor across all livelihood zones; the trend is likely to worsen in the coming months if no good rains are received. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may result into insufficient rangeland regeneration and low water recharge levels. This will likely lead to poor crop performance and minimal recovery of livestock in terms of body condition. Food prices will likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting to worsening dietary diversity, low nutrient value food intake coupled with decreasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, most households in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and livelihood zones are likely to be in phase (IPC crisis Phase 3) while in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone will be in minimal Stressed phase 2. 7.0.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Baringo North where flare ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Upscale of drought response activities by all actors is needed. Sectoral response plans need to be up scaled 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. b) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access to adequate clean water. c) Provision of PVC tanks of 16 no. 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres by the County Government and NDMA. d) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community. e) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals in 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in 150 facilities in the County c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD,CCPP,NCD,LSD) b) Beehives distribution. c) Pasture seed distribution. d) Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock. e) Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle. f) Upscale slaughter destocking. 7.1.6 Agriculture g) Provision of relief inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to farmers. h) Subsidized Land preparation for affected households in 18 wards, Expansion of irrigation, fencing of irrigation scheme. i) Fruit Trees Establishment, Soil conservation and water harvesting, Drip kits in Mogotio. j) Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses.",
            "Baringo 2017 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: LATE ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. 17 mm of rainfall was received in the month of March. The March VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county were 10.82, 1.25 and 13.63 respectively. Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating extreme drought. The Water level in water pans is below normal (5-15) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zone and purchased hay. Livestock body condition is poor across all livelihoods. Milk production is below normal and projected to reduce further in the next one month due to lack of forage and long distances to water. Over 3000 Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones. Distances to water sources for households are increasing drastically and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: Number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition is 24 which above normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is above normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL EMERGENCY WORSENING PASTORAL LATE ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED ALARM WORSENING COUNTY LATE ALARM Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 17 (12) 30 91(64)71 80-120 VCI-3month 10(1) 13 39 (42) 33 35-50 of water in the water pan 2(10-30) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 3000 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 25 wards reported 0-2 wards MARCH EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE An average rainfall of 17.00 mm was recorded in the 1st and 2nd Dekad of March coupled with high temperatures strong winds and dusty weather conditions fairly comparable to the February weath.er conditions Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) Fig.1 In comparison to LTA of 47 mm, the current rainfall is below normal. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-45ocelsius) There were no other major climatologicalweather related events. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUB COUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Figure above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 12.00 mm within the month of March. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 45.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE Tiaty Sub County received an average rainfall of 30.00 mm within the month of March. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 43.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The March SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The March VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 10.82, 1.25, 13.63 and 7.94 respectively. Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating extreme drought as reflected in Fig.4. With the whole County experiencing severe vegetation deficit. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th March 2017 BARINGO County 10.82 Negative trend with 3 sub-counties in the extreme vegetation deficit band and 3 sub-counties in severe vegetation deficit. The short rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in January and February, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central 14.02 Eldama Mogotio North South 13,63 Tiaty 13.34 Fig.4 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates severe drought in all sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty, Baringo North, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio being worst affected and currently facing extreme drought. Fig.5.Source BOKU Fig.6 Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 10.82, which has reduction compared to 13 in the month of February. This trend is expected to worsen with the current prolonged drought. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (1) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county but expected to change for worse given the prevailing weather conditions. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods are poor (5). The situation is abnormal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is poor for livestock. The browse quality is expected to deteriorate with the on-going drought. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were Rivers (25), Traditional water wells (23), pan and dams (18); fairly comparable to the month of February. The availability of water in the wards was poor and on a deteriorating trend. Minimal water points recharge was experienced. Currently most water pans volume capacity is still below 10 of normal. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Both water quantity and quality is poor across all livelihoods with over 25 wards reporting waterborne diseases and diarrhoeal cases. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The average distance from the households to water sources in the month of March was fairly comparable to that of February at 11.3 km. Attributed to prolonged drought, poor water source recharge from the off season rains and drying up of available sources; pastoral regions of the county being most affected. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.9 Grazing distance in March was fairly comparable to that recorded in February at 11.4 km. This is attributed to declining pastures and browse, increasing watering distances and banditry in pastoral areas. Households in Pastoral all species livelihood zone covered the longest distances of 9-30km to grazing areas as compared to 2-4 km covered by those in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. B.SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was very poor (emaciated) especially for cattle in pastoral livelihood zones; very thin in Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. This is attributed to deteriorated water and forage quality and quantity in the county. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlar Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs vi 4 Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head7 Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.10 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. Most pastoralists are still grazing their herds on their last phase of fall-back grazing grounds. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have moved to Lomelo Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya have moved towards Arabal and Mukutani. Significant migration was reported in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia reported 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases Cases Foot and mouth disease outbreak were reported in Eldama Ravine. CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Ilchamus, Saimo Soi, Kamurio, Kiserian Goats and Sheep. 81 sheep and goats Mogotio, Ilchamus, Tirioko and Ribko and kerio valley Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, shoats 12 shoats Mukutani , Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Cattle Diarrhoea Komolion, Ribko Sheep Heart water Kamurio, Cattle 103 shoats MANGE Ribko, Saimo soi shoats 37 shoats RED WATER Kolloa, Tirioko, Akoret cattle Fig.11 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household was 1.7 litres same as that of February. This was attributed to minimal calving from resident herds at household level. Compared to long term average of 1.8 litres the production was below normal. Fig. 12 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have prepared their land (80) with 30 having planted in anticipation of long rains onset early next month. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.13 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh.8, 224 in March compared to Februarys Ksh 9,265. This is attributed to poor animal body condition due to deteriorated forage quality. The prices were below the long-term mean of Ksh.11, 908. Irrigated livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 12,000 and the lowest price of Ksh 8,294 in pastoral livelihood zone 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.14 The average price of a goat in the month of March decreased by 23 to Ksh.1, 546 as compared to Ksh.2, 005 reported in February. This is attributed to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 266 and lowest price of Ksh 1,380 was recorded in Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Maize Market Price Maize Market Price 2017 Fig.15 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.57 higher than Ksh.52 that recorded in February. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh.44 at this time of the year. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.63 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the lowest price of Ksh.42. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Posho Market Price Posho Market Price 2016 Fig.16 The average Posho price per kilogram was Ksh.63. in March, which was above the Long-term average of Ksh.51 at this time of the year. This is attributed to market dynamics at play in the local markets. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 65). It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 50. 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.17 The average price per kilogram of beans increased slightly to Ksh. 114 in March as compared to Ksh.112 in February. This is attributed to increased demand for planting materials .Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 118) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 79). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 18 Average Terms of trade are currently at 42-kilogram cereal per goat sold. Compared to 43 kilogram per goat sold in the month of February, the terms of trade have worsened. This is attributed to declining livestock prices. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household remained at 1.4 litres in the month of March. This is attributed to poor milk production and increased livestock movements. In comparison with a normal year of 1.6 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Fig 19 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.20 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was acceptable and borderline. Pastoral livelihood, fishing and irrigated zone reported some poor FCS. Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood were the most food insecure due to poor crop harvests and on-going drought. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 21 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of March was 24 compared to 19 in February; which is above the 18 LTA. The highest malnutrition rates wrere recorded in Tangulbei Korrosi and Ribkwo wards at 24 4.1 .4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 22, followed by Agro-Pastoral and fishing livelihood zone at index 14.1. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.9 within the month of March. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions De-silting of water pans and provision of filters by GoK. Water Trucking.(MOW and NDMA) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD and PPR (MOALF,BCG,NDMA) Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools CFA projects ongoing in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS. Livestock Supplementary Feeds (hay Concentrates) distribution by County Government and NDMA. Livestock off-take and Slaughter destocking by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in Marigat, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny and Chemorongion area in Baringo South 10 people were shot dead and hundreds of cattle and goats stolen. About 5,882 children and 10,195 adults have been displaced from these affected areas(Baringo South and Baringo North) Nyimbei, Kirim, Sosionde, Chebinyiny, Chemorongion, Kasiela, Arabal, Kapindasum, Sambaka, Sinoni, Kabel, Lamaiwe, Salabani- Kokwo, Kaporion, Karimo, Chepkwel, Moinonin, Akoreyan, Sibilo, Rondinin, Yatia, Ngenyin, Loruk and Kipsaraman. The military has been deployed to the conflict zones to flash out bandits and restore normalcy. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 39 goats Ribko 10 goats Hyena Ribko 31-shoats Fig.23 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents from Arabal,Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian have moved to Mochongoi and Marigat; those from Yatya, Chemoe, Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Moinonin, Rondinin and Kipsaraman due conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to the current drought and delayed onset of the long rains. Water access and availability has continued to diminish and will likely worsen given the current prevailing conditions in the County especially in pastoral areas. The existing water sources are at 5- 15 volume of normal capacity and likely to last for one month. The on-going security operations have limited access to critical livelihood facilities by both humans and livestock and will likely exacerbate the current food insecurity situation in county The forage condition remains poor across all livelihood zones; the trend is likely to worsen in the coming months. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may result into insufficient rangeland regeneration and low water recharge levels. This will likely lead to poor crop performance and minimal recovery of livestock in terms of body condition. Food prices will likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting to worsening dietary diversity, low nutrient value food intake coupled with decreasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, most households in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and livelihood zones are likely to be in phase (IPC crisis Phase 3) while in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone will be in minimal Stressed phase 2. 7.0.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Nasoguro Rugus, Mukutani Kiserian and Arabal where flare ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Upscale of drought response activities by all actors is needed. Sectoral response plans need to be up scaled 7.1.2 Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following critical boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access to adequate clean water. f) Provision of PVC tanks of 16 no. 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres by the County Government and NDMA. g) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community. h) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals in 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in 150 facilities in the County c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD,CCPP,NCD,LSD) b) Beehives distribution. c) Pasture seed distribution. d) Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock. e) Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle. f) Upscale slaughter destocking. 7.1.6 Agriculture g) Provision of relief inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to farmers. h) Subsidized Land preparation for affected households in 18 wards, Expansion of irrigation, fencing of irrigation scheme. i) Fruit Trees Establishment, Soil conservation and water harvesting, Drip kits in Mogotio. j) Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses.",
            "Baringo 2017 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. 50.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of June. The June VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub- county were 35, 31 and 34 respectively. Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio are currently below normal ranges indicating moderate drought. The Water level in water pans is below normal at 2(10-30) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity but on an improving trend. Half of the Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones but some have moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. However the situation remains fragile. Livestock body condition is still poor with minimal improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is below normal and projected to decline further given the prevailing weather conditions. A number of Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones. Actual number couldnt be verified due incidences of insecurity. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones. Distances to water sources for households are still high and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 25, which is above normal indicating worsening trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is above normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED ALARM STABLE COUNTY ALARM Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 50.40mm 106 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35(31) 34 53 (55) 50 35-50 of water in the water pan 2(10-30) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 2500 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 23 wards reported 0-2 wards JUNE EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 50.00 mm was recorded in June coupled with high temperatures, strong winds and dusty weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 106 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The June SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The June VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 35, 31, 34 and 29 respectively. Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating severe drought as reflected in Fig.4. With the whole County experiencing severe vegetation deficit. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th June 2017 BARINGO County positive trend experienced in in Baringo county though three sub countys(Mogotio,Baringo North and Tiaty) still in the moderate vegetation deficit band and 3 sub- counties in normal vegetation deficit. The long rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in June and July, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates moderate drought in 3 sub-counties in Baringo County(Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio being worst affected. Fig.4.Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 35, which has improved compared to 18 in the month of May. This trend is expected to worsening with the current onset of the dry spell. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor in all livelihood zones. The situation is still below normal for the county at this time of the year. The pasture situation was poorest in pastoral livelihood as compared to Agro pastoral and Irrigated Livelihood Zones. Browse Fig. 6 The browse conditions in pastoral livelihoods has slightly improved but most parts are still poor .The situation is below normal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is poor for livestock. The browse quality is on worsening trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were mainly rivers at 32, pan and dams at (25) and Traditional Water Wells at 22. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is still poor and on a worsening trend, which is abnormal for this time of the year. All the wards reported cases of waterborne diseases. Water volume in most water pans is below 10 of normal capacity. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. As occasioned by poor overall water sources recharge across the County. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average distance from households to water sources in the month of June was 6.8 km a reduction from 9.5 km recorded in the previous month. As attributed to the sporadic amounts of rainfall received in the county. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 8.9 km and 7.1 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered 1 km that in not normal at this time of the year. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in June was 11.4 km similar to that recorded in May. However the distance was above the long-term average by 103 at this time of the year. This is attributed to poor pasture and browse quality, increasing watering distances and banditry in pastoral areas. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition remained very poor (emaciated) (score 3) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones and very thin in irrigated livelihood zones. This is attributed to slow recovery following poor regeneration of pasture across all livelihoods thus poor forage quality and quantity in the county. This situation is expected to worsen as the long rains season has lapsed. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. The herds that had immigrated back to their traditional grazing grounds have started moving away to the dry season convergence zones in search of pasture. Animals from Kapau, Napur, Chepelow and Chamatasi have moved to Pkatil Hills, Chesawach and Kwol. While those from Saimo Soi have moved to Kalabata in search of pasture and water. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya have are still in Arabal and Mukutani. Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia has also been reported. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR, Heart water and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost SaimoSoi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Goats and Sheep. 74 shoats Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats 55 shoats Saimo soi, Cattle 14 cattle Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, Saimo soi Goats 68 shoats RED WATER Leikiron, Kamurio, Pkaruru Cattle Fig.13 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in June was 1.6 litres, which was below the long term average by 6. This was attributed to poor body conditions and poor forage regeneration across all livelihood zones as result of the poor performance of the long rains season. Fig. 14 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Maize crop in Ilchamus and Mukutani wards of Baringo south is at knee high and a few observed cases of tussling. The crop however faces a serious threat from Fall Army Worm infestation. In Saimo soi ward farmers prepared their farms but failed to plant due to lack of rains and insecurity that forced majority to flee their homes and farms. Tiaty Sub County on farm maize crop especially in Churo and Tangulubei faces serious destruction threat from by the Fall Army Worms. Approximately 12000ha of maize crop have reported FAW infestation across the County a situation that will likely compromise food the security given the prevailing weather conditions. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.15 The average prices of cattle increased slightly by 17.2 from Ksh. 6,167 in May to Ksh7, 233 in the month of June. This is attributed to pastoralists response to minimal regeneration of pasture by with holding disposal of their animals to the local markets. The Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.9, 000 while the Pastoral livelihood zone had the least prices of Ksh 6,413. This is attributed to poor animal body condition and collapse of livestock markets especially in Tiaty Sub- County. The price was below the long- term mean by 42.8. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.16 The average price of a goat in the month of June increased slightly to Ksh 1,454 as compared to Ksh.1, 430 reported in May. This is attributed to improving body conditions and general market dynamics at play in the local operational markets. The prices are below normal at this time of the year by 44. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 710 and lowest price of Ksh 805 was recorded in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Long Term Mean Price in KSH Maize Prices June 2017 Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.81 in June, this was an increase of 11 as compared to Ksh.73 recorded in the month of May. This price was above the long-term average of Ksh. 53 by 53 at this time of the year. This was due to the scarcity of the commodity in the local markets and supply disruptions occasioned by insecurity in the County. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 In the month of June the posho prices increased to Kshs. 86 as compared to Kshs.83. in May. This was above the Long-term average of Ksh.60 by 43 at this time of the year. This is attributed to declining domestic stocks, closure of local markets due to insecurity and general countrywide scarcity of maize for milling. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 100). It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 65. 3.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans decreased to Ksh. 129 in June as compared to Ksh.138 in May; the price was above the long-term mean by 17. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity, closure of markets due to insecurity and high demand for planting materials. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 135) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 110). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trades are currently at 24.4 -kilogram cereal per goat sold this is fairly comparable to that recorded in the month of May. The current ToT is above the long-term average of 72- kilogram per goat sold by 33. The terms of trade are still poor due to declining livestock prices against increasing food prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 43 while the agro pastoral had the lowest at 12. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household remained at 1.4 litres in the month of June as compared to 1.2litres in the month of May. This was attributed to little pasture degeneration especially in irrigated livelihood zone. In comparison with a normal year of 1.5 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year by 20. Fig 21 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of June was borderline. All livelihoods zones reported some poor FCS. Pastoral livelihood was more food insecure as compared to Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihoods. This was due to poor rainfall performance, poor livelihoods productivity and prolonged drought across all livelihood zones. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of June was 24.6 compared to 24.9 in May; which is above LTA by 45. This was due to consorted mass screening and referrals, outreaches and minimal milk availability at household level. Consistent high rate could be as a result of high food commodity prices and heightened movements due insecurity and emergency of IDP zones. 4.1.4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19.3, followed by Agro-Pastoral at 17.3 and fishing livelihood zone at index 13.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 6.6 within the month of June. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Water Trucking. (MOW and NDMA) Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools CFA projects ongoing in Ngambo, Kiserian, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS Livestock Supplementary Feeds (hay Concentrates) distribution by County Government Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision, Basic Health Care and Nutrition screening services, Case Management for Mal nutrition - SFP, OTP and FBP(KRCS) 5.1.2 Food interventions Relief food in Kolloa, Yatya, Ngambo and Akoret by KRC and National Government Livestock off-take and Slaughter destocking by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket feeding by WFP in East Pokot for lactating mothers, under-fives and lactating mothers 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in, Chemoe and yatya that has led to persons moving to Chebarsit, Koroto, and Sibilo. The military are still in the conflict zones to flash out bandits and restore normalcy. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 18 shoats Akoret, Ribko 10 shoats Wild dogs Ngambo 12sheep Hyena Akoret 13shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. So far 4500 residents from Yatya, Chemoe, Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Sibilo, Kerio Valley, Endao, Koroto Cheparsait and Rondiwin and Kipsaraman due conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and deteriorating due to poor rainfall performance of long rains in Baringo South, Baringo North and Tiaty. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may result into insufficient rangeland regeneration and low water recharge levels. The situation is likely lead to poor crop performance given the few-planted areas have been infested by the fall armyworm. Water access and availability will likely continue to diminish as a result of poor recharge with existing water sources likely to last for one month; minimal recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The on-going security operations have limited access to critical livelihood assets by both humans and livestock and will likely exacerbate the current food insecurity situation in county. The forage condition remains poor and dwindling across all livelihood zones with the trend is likely to worsen if there will be no off season rains. Food prices are likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting into increased food scarcity and worsening dietary diversity, low nutrient value food intake coupled with decreasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, most households in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and livelihood zones are likely to be in phase (IPC crisis Phase 3) while in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone will be in minimal Stressed phase 2. 7.0.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building meetings and and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Baringo North where flare-ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought response activities by all actors is needed. Sectoral response plans need to be activated as need arises. 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. d) Community sensitization on WASH issues. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites. 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of commercial offtake by households on voluntary basis b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance especially given the increased livestock movements in the County. 7.1.6 Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance and reporting on Fall Army Worm b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County.",
            "Baringo 2017 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. 206.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of July. The June VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub- county were 35, 29 and 33 respectively. Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio are currently below normal ranges indicating moderate drought. The Water level in water pans is below normal at 5(100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair in both quality and quantity but on an improving trend. 30 of the Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones but 70 have moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. However the situation remains stable. Livestock body condition is fair with minimal improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is above normal and projected to improve further given the prevailing weather conditions. Minimum number of Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones. Distances to water sources for households are still high but expected to reduce to normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 14, which is below normal indicating improving trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING IRRIGATED ALERT IMPROVING COUNTY ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiatty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 206.00 174 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35(29) 33 54 (55) 52 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 1500 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 8 wards reported 0-2 wards JULY EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 206.00 mm was recorded in July coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 174 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The July SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The July VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 35, 29, 33 and 32 respectively. Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating moderate drought as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th July 2017 BARINGO County Positive trend experienced in in Baringo county though three sub countys (Mogotio, Baringo North and Tiaty) still in the moderate vegetation deficit band and 3 sub- counties in normal vegetation deficit. The long rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. With the current offseason rains in July, the VCI will continue to improve. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates moderate drought in 3 sub-counties in Baringo County (Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio being worst affected. Fig.4.Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 35, which has remained same compared to 35 in the month of June. This trend is expected to improve with the current off seasons rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained fair to poor with a little improvement in all livelihood zones. The situation is still below normal but improving aggravated by the off season rains. The pasture situation was fair to poor in pastoral livelihood as compared to Agro pastoral and Irrigated Livelihood Zones. Browse Fig. 6 The browse conditions in pastoral livelihoods is fair to good but some parts are still poor .The situation is normal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is fair for livestock. The browse quality is on improving trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were mainly rivers at 27, Traditional Water Wells at 20 and pan and dams at (16). Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is fair and on an improving trend, which is normal for this time of the year. Few wards reported cases of waterborne diseases. Water volume in most water pans is above 70 of normal capacity; this is expected to last for more than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The water sources recharge across the County was triggered by off seasons rain. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average distance from households to water sources in the month of July was 5.0 km a reduction from 6.8 km recorded in the previous month. The situation is attributed to the off seasons rainfall received in the county. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distances of average 6.0 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered 2 km. This is normal at this time of the year. 1.3.3 Livestock Access Fig.10 Grazing distance in July was 8.0 km decreasing from 11.4 km recorded in June. However the distance was above the long-term average of 5.3 km at this time of the year by 51. The decrease was as result of the ongoing off season rainfall which has recharged most of the water sources within reach. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition remained fair to poor (score 4) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and fair in irrigated livelihood zones. The improved body condition was due to recovery following off season rains which has led to fair regeneration of pasture across all livelihoods thus fair forage quality and quantity in the county. This situation is expected to improve as the offseason rains continue. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. The herds that had migrated back to dry season convergence zones have started moving back to their traditional grazing grounds. Animals that had moved to Pkatil Hills, Chesawach, Kwol and Kalabata in search of pasture and water have moved back to Kapau and Saimo Soi. The pastoralists from Orus and Amaya have are also moved back from Arabal and Mukutani. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No outstanding livestock diseases reported but CCPP, PPR, Heart water and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost SaimoSoi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Goats and Sheep. Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Saimo soi, Cattle Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, Saimo soi Goats RED WATER Leikiron, Kamurio, Pkaruru Cattle Fig.13 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in July was 2.2 litres, which was above the long term average 1.8 litres. This was attributed to regenerated pasture and browse across all livelihood zones as result of the off seasons rains. Fig. 14 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most maize crop in Baringo are at tussling stage. The crop however faces a serious threat from Fall Army Worm infestation. In Saimo soi ward farmers prepared their farms but failed to plant due to lack of rains and insecurity that forced majority to flee their homes and farms. Tiaty Sub County on farm maize crop especially in Churo and Tangulubei faces serious destruction threat from by the Fall Army Worms. Approximately 12000ha of maize crop have reported FAW infestation across the County a situation that will likely compromise food the security given the prevailing weather conditions. The off seasons rains have replenish most maize crops that had withered due to lack of sufficient moisture, this has rekindle hopes of production though below average is expected. 3.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.15 The average prices of cattle increased slightly from Ksh. 7,233 in June to Ksh7, 950 in the month of July. This is attributed to pastoralists response to minimal regeneration of pasture by with holding disposal of their animals to the local markets. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.14, 836 while the fishing livelihood zone had the least prices of Ksh.13, 000. This is attributed to fair animal body condition and opening of some livestock markets especially in Tiaty Sub- County. The price was below the long-term mean of Ksh.11, 101 by 28. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Long Term Mean 2 928 2 513 2 713 2 498 2 370 2 473 2 131 2 363 2 445 2 448 2 631 2 707 2 781 2 178 2 293 2 359 2 410 2 606 2 835 2 574 2 338 2 509 2 783 2 379 2 226 2 005 1 546 1 496 1 430 1454 1668 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 Price in KSH Goat Prices July 2017 Fig.16 The average price of a goat in the month of July increased slightly by 15 to Ksh 1,668 as compared to Ksh.1, 454 reported in June. This is attributed to improving body conditions and general market dynamics at play in the local operational markets. The prices are below normal (Ksh.2131) at this time of the year. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.3, 328 and lowest price of Ksh 3,201 was recorded in Mixed farming livelihood zone. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.58 in July; a decrease of 28 compared to Ksh.81 recorded in the month of June. This price was above the long-term average of Ksh. 48 at this time of the year by 21. This was due to market dynamics in the local markets and supply disruptions occasioned by insecurity in the County. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 In the month of July the Posho prices decreased to Kshs.80 as compared to Kshs.86. in June. This was above the Long-term average of Ksh.56 at this time of the year. This is attributed to market dynamics, closure of local markets due to insecurity and general countrywide scarcity of maize for milling. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 100). It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 65. 3.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans decreased to Ksh. 118 in July as compared to Ksh.129 in June; the price was above the long-term mean by 17. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity, closure of markets due to insecurity and high demand for planting materials. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 135) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 110). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trades increased by 46 to 35.7 kilogram cereal per goat sold this is fairly comparable to that recorded in the month of June. The current ToT is below the long-term average of 77- kilogram per goat sold. The terms of trade are still poor due to declining livestock prices against increasing food prices. Mixed farming livelihood zone had the highest at 63 while the pastoral had the lowest at 49. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household increased to 1.6 litres in the month of July as compared to 1.4 litres in the month of June. This was attributed to little pasture degeneration especially in irrigated livelihood zone. In comparison with a normal year of 1.7 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Fig 21 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of July was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline FCS. Two Sub county recorded Poor food consumption Score. Food security situation improved across all livelihood zones as compared to the month June. This was due off season rainfall performance. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of July was 14 compared to 24.6 in June; which is below LTA of 17. The level of malnutrition have improved. This was due to consorted mass screening and referrals, outreaches and minimal milk availability at household level. Consistent high rate could be as a result of high food commodity prices and heightened movements due insecurity and emergency of IDP zones. 4.1 .4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 21, followed by Agro-Pastoral at 17.8 and fishing livelihood zone at index 14.5. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4.1within the month of July. 5.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Water Trucking. (MOW and NDMA) Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools CFA projects ongoing in Ngambo, Kiserian, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS Livestock Supplementary Feeds (hay Concentrates) distribution by County Government Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision, Basic Health Care and Nutrition screening services, Case Management for Mal nutrition - SFP, OTP and FBP(KRCS) 5.1.2 Food interventions Relief food in Kolloa, Yatya, Ngambo and Akoret by KRC and National Government Livestock off-take and Slaughter destocking by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket feeding by WFP in East Pokot for lactating mothers, under-fives and lactating mothers. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in, Chemoe and Yatya that has led to persons moving to Chebarsit, Koroto, Sibilo. The military are still in the conflict zones to flash out bandits and restore normalcy. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 18 shoats Akoret, Ribko 10 shoats Wild dogs Ngambo 12sheep Hyena Akoret 13shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons So far 4500 residents from Yatya, Chemoe, and Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Sibilo, Kerio Valley, Endao, Koroto Cheparsait and Rondiwin and Kipsaraman due conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable but improving due to offseason rainfall performance of long rains in Baringo County. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may bounce back to previous food insecurity situation if the offseason rains stops. The situation is likely lead to poor crop performance given the few-planted areas have been infested by the fall armyworm. If the current rains continue, water access and availability will likely continue to improve as a result of full recharge with existing water sources and likely to last for two months leading to full recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The on-going security operations have limited access to critical livelihood assets by both humans and livestock and will likely exacerbate the current food insecurity situation in county. The forage condition remains fair to good and improving across all livelihood zones. If the current conditions continue, food prices are likely to maintain a decreasing trend resulting into increased food accessibility and improving dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, most households in Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and livelihood zones are likely to be in phase 2 (IPC Phase 2) while in irrigated cropping livelihood zone will be in minimal Stressed phase 1. 7.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building meetings and and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Baringo North where flare-ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought response activities by all actors is needed. Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. Provision of water treatment chemicals. 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. d) Community sensitization on WASH issues. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites. 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of commercial offtake by households on voluntary basis b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance especially given the increased livestock movements in the County. 7.1.6 Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance and reporting on Fall Army Worm b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County.",
            "Baringo 2017 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. 3mm of rainfall received within the month of January. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges in East Pokot, Eldamaravin, and Baringo south, Baringo North and Mogotio. This is attributed to ongoing drought. Water in the pans are below normal (25-30) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. Livestock body condition is poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal ranges but projected to reduce further in the next one month due to reducing quality of forage. Over 1500 Livestock deaths reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods but on a reducing trend. Distances to water sources for households are increasing drastically and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: Number of kids at risk of malnutrition is 18 above normal. Occurrence of waterbornewater related diseases is above normal, water contamination reported in Tiaty, Baringo North Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED ALERT STABLE COUNTY ALARM WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 3(0) 0 147(45)40 80-120 VCI-3month 17(10) 16 50 (55) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(25-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 1500 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 80(maize) 183(bean) LTA (1205Ha) LTA(1276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by December 2016) 70(maize) 247(bean LTA(15,400) LTA(10,773) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 15 wards reported 0-2 wards JANUARY EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Fig.1 There were light showers received towards the end of January not sufficient enough to cause any positive impact on livelihoods. High temperatures were experienced. In comparison with long term the onset of dry spell was early. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) Average (2009-2013) Rainfall in mm Rainfall trends Fig.2 The County received an average rainfall of 3.00 mm within the month of January. In comparison to LTA, the current rainfall is below normal to the long-term rainfall average of 23mm. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-45ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUB COUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.3 Source ARV RFE In the Figure above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 0.00 mm within the month of January. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 12.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.4.Source ARV RFE In the Figure.4. Above, Tiaty received an average rainfall of 0.00 mm within the month of January. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 13.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The January SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for January for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county was 17.75 10.00 and 16.8 respectively. Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo North are currently below normal indicating severe drought as reflected in Fig.5. With the whole County experiencing moderate drought. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th January 2017 BARINGO County 17.75 Negative trend with 3 sub-counties in the severe vegetation deficit band and 3 sub-counties in moderate vegetation deficit. The short rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in January and February, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central Eldama Mogotio North 15.19 South Tiaty Fig.5.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates severe drought in all sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio being worst affected. Fig.6.Source BOKU Fig.7 Source BOKU In Fig.7 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 17.75, which has reduced compared to the month of December. This trend is expected to worsen with the depressed short rains. Baringo County is currently experiencing severe drought 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (5) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county but expected to change with ongoing short rains. The pasture is estimated to last for 1 month. Livestock from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones. Livestock in Ribko and Kolloa wards have moved to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones in search of pasture and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have started moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, and Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County in search of pasture. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods are poor (20). The situation is abnormal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is poor for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The browse quality is expected to deteriorate with the ongoing drought. 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.8 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were Pans and dams (30) followed by permanent rivers (18) All wards received no rains in the month of January. The availability of water in the wards is poor. No water points recharge was experienced. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at above 30ocelsius. Currently most water pans volume capacity is at below 25 of normal. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Water quantity and quality is deteriorating in all livelihood zones with over 15 wards reporting waterborne and diarrhoeal cases. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Water Source Distance Water Source Distance 2017 Fig.9 The average distance from the households to water sources increased to 8.7 km in the month of January in comparison to that of 8.5 km in December. This is attributed to long dry spell, poor water sources recharge from the short rains and drying up of available sources. With the pastoral regions of the county being most affected. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances to water sources as compared to those in irrigated i.e. 19km and 7km respectively. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance increased from 7.6 km in December to 10.8 km in January. This is attributed to declining pastures and browse together with increasing watering distances in pastoral areas. Households in Pastoral all species livelihood zone covered the longest distances of 8-20km to grazing areas as compared to 1-4 km covered by those in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is poor (stressed) especially for cattle across the livelihood zones attributed to deteriorating water and forage quality and quantity in the county. 12th -13th ribs were visible in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. Most pastoralists have migrated to their last phase of fall-back grazing grounds due to scarcity of pasture, browse and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills are moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya have moved towards Arabal and Mukutani. Significant migration was reported in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia reported 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases Cases Foot and mouth disease outbreak were reported in Eldama Ravine. CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 74 sheep and goats Ilchamus, Tirioko,Ribkwo, Kerio Valley,Chemogoch, Kipsogon Cattle Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kositei,Kamar, majimoto,Emining, Shoats 50 shoats Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Sinende, Kabuswo Cattle 9cows Heart water Saimo soi ,Kolloa Shoats 119 shoats MANGE Saimo soi Shoats 24 shoats Worms County wise All livestock Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle New Castle Disease Mukutani Chicken Fig.11 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household decreased to 1.7 litres in January compared to 2.0 litres normally. The decreased milk production is attributed to lack of adequate pasture and water. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize crop in all the wards had been harvested. The yields were poor apart from a few areas in Kerio valley region where the crop was affected by depressed rains. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. MARKET PERFORMANCE 3.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.17 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh 11,470 in January compared to Decembers (Ksh 12,710. This is attributed to deteriorating forage quality and deteriorating animals body condition. The prices were below the long-term mean of Ksh.14, 087. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.18 The average price of a goat in the month of January decreased to Ksh 2, 226 compared to Ksh 2,397 reported in December. This is attributed to the deterioration of forage quality and increased watering distances resulting to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.4, 500. 4.0 CROP PRICES 4.1.1 Maize Fig.19 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.55 higher than Ksh.42 that recorded in December. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh 43 at this time of the year. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.55 hich is above LTA of Ksh.43 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the lowest price of Ksh.39 below LTA of Ksh .43. 4.1.2 Posho Prices Posho Market Price Posho Market Price 2017 Fig.20 The average Posho price per kilogram was Ksh.56. in January, which was above the Long- term average of Ksh.51 at this time of the year. This is attributed to market dynamics at play in the local markets. 4.1.3 Beans Prices Fig.21 The average price per kilogram of beans increased to Ksh. 108 in January as compared to Ksh.106 in December. This is attributed to Market dynamics in the local markets and households respectively. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 115) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 80) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 4.1.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 22 Average Terms of trade are currently at 40-kilogram cereal per goat sold. Compared to 50 kilogram per goat sold in the month of December, the terms of trade have dropped. This is attributed declining animal prices and shrinking cereal supplies. The least ratio was recorded in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 69 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest ratio at 83. The Terms of Trade were below the long- term average of 50, indicating declining purchasing power to the pastoralists. 5.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 1.7 litres in the month of December to 1.1 litres in January. This is attributed to poor milk production and increased livestock movements. In comparison with a normal year of 1.5 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Fig 23 5.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.24 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was acceptable and borderline. Pastoral livelihood and Agro-Pastoral zone reported some poor FCS. Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood was the most food insecure due to poor crop harvests and ongoing drought. 5.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012-2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 26 The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of January was 18 which is an increase compared to the LTA of 16. The nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has worsened. 5 .2 Coping Strategy 5.2.1 Coping Strategy Index Fig.27 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.8, followed by Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone at index 15.6. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4. 2 within the month of January. On-Going Interventions Non-food interventions De-silting of water pans and provision of filters Loyeya cattle dip construction ongoing Kipnai and Cheptaran dispensary, Chemakutan cattle dip and Cheptalamach water pan are being constructed by County government. Water Trucking.(MOW) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD and PPR (MOALF,BCG,RPLRP) Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools Chemoe cattle dip is now operational Infrastructure development , WS pipeline extension, Water Pans and General Rehabilitations Repair maintenance of boreholes(MOW) CFA projects ongoing in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus. Feeds distribution by County Government and NDMA. Recruitment of Farmers for Livestock Insurance by MOALF (County). Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision. Emerging Issues 6.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in Kiserian and Nasoguro areas in Baringo South where one RDU officer was injured and dozens of livestock stolen. Government security officers have been deployed to the conflict area to restore peace. The tension is still high in those areas. The Kollowa Marakwet borders experienced resource based conflict where one police officer lost his life. Vigorous peace building intervention from the national and county government security and political leaders are currently ongoing to control the situation. Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Akoret 36shoats leopard Akoret 2 calves Hyena Akoret 30-shoats Fig.28 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents have moved from Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian to Mochongoi and Marigat due to conflicts for pastoral resources and cattle rustling. Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to poor performance of OND rains. The drought situation worsened due to the prolonged dry spell across all wards. Water access and availability has continued to diminish and will likely worsen given the current prevailing conditions in the County especially in pastoral areas. The existing water sources never recharged fully and current water sources are at 25-40 volume of normal capacity. The ongoing Livestock movements from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones and Ribko and Kolloa wards to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones will avail the much need pasture and water to the animals but will likely trigger conflicts among the different pastoral groups. The pasture condition remains poor across pastoral and agro pastoral zones; browse condition is fair in all livelihood zones, the trend is likely to worsen in the coming months due to poor performance of OND rains. Sector Recommendations General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Nasoguro Rugus, Mukutani Kiserian and Arabal where flare ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Rapid assessment needs to be conducted in agro pastoral areas to provide evidence based planning and response. Sectoral response plans need to be activated Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following critical boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access to adequate clean water. f) Provision of PVC tanks of10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres. g) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community. h) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. i) Design and Construction of Multi-purpose Dams Nutrition and Health a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted, the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector-working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. d) Intensify Mass screening and referrals in 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub- counties . e) Provision of food supplements in 150 facilities in the County f) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties Education a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Chesawach, Nyakwala and Napur School needs ECD teacher, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. c) Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks. d) Regular feeding programme to all schools. e) Provision of improved seeds to the community, improving of food storage techniques in schools and community. f) Mogotio be included in the HGSFP. g) Boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. a) Purchase of: -bee hives-goats-camels-cows and food stuffs (maize, beans) for schools in Tiaty. Livestock a) CCPP cases were reported across all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. b) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD,CCPP,NCD,LSD) c) Beehives distribution. d) Pasture seed distribution. e) Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock. f) Water tracking to ease conflict between livestock, domestic and schools. g) Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle. Agriculture h) Provision of relief inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to farmers (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet) i) Subsidized Land preparation for affected households in 18 wards, Expansion of irrigation, fencing of irrigation scheme. j) Mapping out of areas for construction of water dams for irrigation. k) Fruit Trees Establishment, Soil conservation and water harvesting, Drip kits, Affruitation in Mogotio. l) Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emaciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2017 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal range. 11 mm of rainfall received within the month of February. The vegetation condition index VCI-3month for the County is below normal ranges in East Pokot, Eldamaravin, Baringo south, Baringo North and Mogotio. This is attributed to ongoing drought. Water in the pans is below normal (10-30) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. Livestock body condition is poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal ranges but projected to reduce further in the next one month due to reducing quality of forage. Over 2500 Livestock deaths reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones occasioned by drought. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods with a reducing trend. Distances to water sources for households are above normal with an trend. Utilization indicators: Number of children at risk of malnutrition is 19 which above normal. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED ALERT WORSENING COUNTY ALARM WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 11(16) 17 147(45)40 80-120 VCI-3month 13(3) 15 50 (55) 45 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(10-30) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 2500 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 80(maize) 183(bean) LTA (1205Ha) LTA(1276Ha) Crops Yield for the season (90 kg bag)(by December 2016) 70(maize) 247(bean LTA(15,400) LTA(10,773) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 20 wards reported 0-2 wards FEBRUARY EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE The month of February was characterised with hot dry and dusty weather conditions with no precipitation. Though average rainfall of 11.00 mm was recorded in the month of February. In comparison to LTA, the current rainfall is below normal to the long-term rainfall average of 96 mm. Temperatures recorded increased significantly during the month to (30-45ocelsius) There were no other major climatological weather related events. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) Fig.1 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUB COUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Mogotio Sub County received an approximate average rainfall of 16.00 mm within the month of February. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 33.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.3 Tiaty Sub- County received an average rainfall of 17.00 mm within the month of February. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 24.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The February SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The VCI value for February for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub- county was 12.58, 3.47 and 14.57 respectively. Mogotio and Baringo North are currently below normal indicating extreme drought as reflected in Fig.5. With the whole County experiencing moderate drought. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 28th February 2017 BARINGO County 12.58 Negative trend with 2 sub-counties in the extreme vegetation deficit band and 4 sub-counties in severe vegetation deficit. The short rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be offseason rains in January and February, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central 13.42 Eldama 12. 29 Mogotio North South 17.69 Tiaty 14.57 Fig.4.Source BOKU The information provided above indicates severe drought in all sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio being worst affected and currently facing extreme drought. Fig.5.Source BOKU Fig.6 Source In Fig.6 above, Baringo County had vegetation cover of 12.58, which has reduced compared to the month of January. This trend is expected to worsen with the ongoing drought in Baringo County. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (5) in all livelihood zones. The current situation is below normal. Livestock from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus, Arabal grazing zones and neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet and Samburu Counties. Livestock in Ribko and Kolloa wards have moved to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones. While those from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills have moved towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, and Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County in search of pasture and water. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods are poor (10). The situation is abnormal at this time of the year. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is poor for livestock. Sporadic precipitation affected quality of forage especially along Kerio valley region. The browse quality is expected to deteriorate with the ongoing drought. 1.3 .0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were Borehole (21), Pan and dams (19) and Traditional water wells (17). The availability of water in the wards is poor. No water points recharge was reported. Surface temperatures remained high during the month at above 30ocelsius. Currently most water pans have dried up with existing ones having below 15 of normal capacity and is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Water quantity and quality is poor deteriorating in all livelihood zones with over 20 wards reporting waterborne and diarrhoeal cases. Ground observations and reports show that the state of water sources was ranked at 2 in reference to the scale below. INDEX STATE OF WATER DESCRIPTION EMERGENCY SITUATION All main water sources have dried up; only few boreholes still yielding significant amounts. STRONGLY INADEQUATE Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many areas within the livelihood. INADEQUATE Surface water sources have dried up while the underground water sources are yielding modest amounts of water. Concentration of livestock around few water points contribute to the spread of communicable diseases and degradation of rangeland. DECLINING The water availability is below normal for the period, but showing declining trends. NORMAL The water availability is normal for the period. The water availability is above normal for the period. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Water Source Distance Water Source Distance 2017 Fig.8 The average distance from the households to water sources increased to 11.1 km in the month of February in comparison to that of 8.7 km in January. This is attributed to long dry spell, poor water sources recharge from the short rains and drying up of available sources. With the pastoral regions of the county being most affected. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances to water sources as compared to those in irrigated i.e. 20km and 7km respectively. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.9 Grazing distance increased from 10.8 km in January to 11.3 km in February. This is attributed to declining pastures and browse together with increasing watering distances in pastoral areas coupled with livestock migration. Households in Pastoral all species livelihood zone covered the longest distances of 8-30km to grazing areas as compared to 1-4 km covered by those in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1.0 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is poor (critical) especially for cattle in pastoral livelihood zones but stressed in Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. This is attributed to deteriorating water and forage quality and quantity in the county. 12th -13th ribs were visible in all livelihood zones. The current livestock body condition can be rated at index 3 as per the threshold scale below for most livestock. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visib 4 Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.10 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. Most pastoralists have migrated to their last phase of fall-back grazing grounds due to scarcity of pasture, browse and water. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills are moving towards Lomelo, Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County. Some pastoralists from Orus and Amaya have moved towards Arabal and Mukutani. Significant migration was reported in Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and Koibatek sub-counties. Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia reported 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases Cases Foot and mouth disease outbreak were reported in Eldama Ravine. CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 68 sheep and goats Ilchamus, Tirioko,Ribkwo, Kerio Valley,Chemogoch, Kipsogon Cattle Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kositei,Kamar, majimoto,Emining, Shoats 50 shoats Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Sinende, Kabuswo Cattle Heart water Saimo soi ,Kolloa Shoats 131 shoats MANGE Saimo soi Shoats 37 shoats Worms County wise All livestock Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle New Castle Disease Mukutani Chicken Fig.11 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household decreased to 1.5 litres in February compared to 1.7 litres in January. The decreased milk production is attributed to lack of adequate pasture and water. Fig. 12 2.2 .0 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers are preparing the lands with anticipation of long rains onset early next month. The maize crop in all the wards had been harvested. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. MARKET PERFORMANCE 3.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.13 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh.9,265 in February compared to Januarys (Ksh 11,470. This is attributed to deteriorating forage quality and deteriorating animals body condition. The prices were below the long-term mean of Ksh.12, 133. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig14 The average price of a goat in the month of February decreased to Ksh 2,005 compared to Ksh 2, 226 reported in January. This is attributed to the deterioration of forage quality and increased watering distances resulting to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.4, 300. 3.2 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.15 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.52 higher than Ksh.55 that recorded in January. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh.45 at this time of the year. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.55 which is above LTA of Ksh.45 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the lowest price of Ksh.39 below LTA of Ksh .45. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.16 The average Posho price per kilogram was Ksh.58. in February, which was above the Long-term average of Ksh.52 at this time of the year. This is attributed to market dynamics at play in the local markets. 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.17 The average price per kilogram of beans increased to Ksh. 112 in February as compared to Ksh.108 in January. This is attributed to Market dynamics in the local markets and households respectively. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 116) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 78) this is attributed to unstable availability of the commodity in the local markets. 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig. 18 Average Terms of trade are currently at 43-kilogram cereal per goat sold. Compared to 40 kilogram per goat sold in the month of January, the terms of trade have improved. This is attributed to availability of relief food at community level and the ongoing interventions like the livestock off take. The least ratio was recorded in the fishing livelihood zone at 48 while the pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest ratio at 51. The Terms of Trade were below the long-term average of 61, indicating declining purchasing power to the pastoralists. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household decreased from 1.5 litres in the month of January to 1.4 litres in February. This is attributed to poor milk production and increased livestock movements. In comparison with a normal year of 1.5 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Apr May Milk Consumption(litre) 2017 Fig 19 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.20 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was acceptable and borderline. Pastoral livelihood and Agro-Pastoral zone reported some poor FCS. Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood was the most food insecure due to poor crop harvests and ongoing drought. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status (2012- 2014) MUAC 135mm Fig. 21 The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of February was 19 which is an increase compared to the LTA of 18. The nutritional status for children under the age of 5 years has worsened. 4.2 Coping Strategy 4.2.1 Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23, followed by Agro-Pastoral and fishing livelihood zone at index 14.1. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4. 7 within the month of February. On-Going Interventions 4.3.0 Non-food interventions De-silting of water pans and provision of filters by GoK. Loyeya cattle dip construction ongoing Kipnai and Cheptaran dispensary, Chemakutan cattle dip and Cheptalamach water pan are being constructed by County government. Water Trucking.(MOW) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD and PPR (MOALF,BCG,RPLRP) Kipsaraman Sibilo road is being upgraded by county government JICA sunk Kipchemoi and Chesekem boreholes Baringo North CDF issued water tanks to Rormoch and Kosile primary schools Chemoe cattle dip is now operational Infrastructure development , WS pipeline extension, Water Pans and General Rehabilitations Repair maintenance of boreholes(MOW) CFA projects ongoing in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus by WFP and REDCROSS. Livestock Feeds distribution by County Government and NDMA. Livestock offtake by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK. Vitamin A Supplementation, Mass screening, Beyond zero, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey Deworming by MOH and World Vision. Cash for work program by NYS. 4.4.0 Food intervention Food aid was distributed to Tiaty, Baringo north, Baringo South and Mogotio comprising of bags of Maize, bags of beans , bags of rice and cartons each comprising of (500 millilitres 24 pieces) of cooking oil for the month of January-February. By GoK, County Government and Red Cross. Slaughter destocking by NDMA-DCF and GoK 5.0.0 Emerging Issues 5.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in Marigat, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny and Chemorongion area in Baringo South where two politicians, one teacher and woman were shot dead and hundreds of cattle and goats were stolen. In Yatya, Ngaratuko, Chemoe and Loruk; bodaboda man, chief, mother and baby were shot dead by bandits during raids. 5,882 children and 10,195 adults have been displaced from these affected areas(Baringo South and Baringo North) Nyimbei, Kirim, Sosionde, Chebinyiny, Chemorongion, Kasiela, Arabal, Kapindasum, Sambaka, Sinoni, Kabel, Lamaiwe, Salabani- Kokwo, Kaporion, Karimo, Chepkwel, Moinonin, Akoreyan, Sibilo, Rondinin, Yatia, Ngenyin, Loruk and Kipsaraman. Government security officers have been deployed to the conflict area to flash out and restore peace. The tension is still high in those areas. 5.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 39 goats Ribko 10 goats Hyena Ribko 31-shoats Fig.23 5.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents have moved from Arabal, Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian have moved to Mochongoi and Marigat, From Yatya, Chemoe, Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Moinonin, Rondinin and Kipsaraman due conflicts for pastoral resources and cattle rustling. Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to poor performance of OND rains. The drought situation worsened due to the prolonged dry spell across all wards. Water access and availability has continued to diminish and will likely worsen given the current prevailing conditions in the County especially in pastoral areas. The existing water sources never recharged fully and current water sources are at 15-30 volume of normal capacity. The ongoing Livestock movements from Orus, Pakka and Loyamarok have moved towards Rugus and Arabal grazing zones and Ribko and Kolloa wards to Kulol, Kadungoi, Kasarani and Turkana borders grazing convergence zones will avail the much need pasture and water to the animals but has triggered conflicts among the different pastoral groups. The pasture condition remains poor across pastoral and agro pastoral zones; browse condition is poor in all livelihood zones, the trend is likely to worsen in the coming months due to poor performance of OND rains. 6.0 SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Nasoguro Rugus, Mukutani Kiserian and Arabal where flare ups have arisen recently and along Kerio- Kolloa region. The drought situation calls for close monitoring to ensure timely and effective response. Upscale of drought response activities by all actors is needed. 6.1.2 Water Sector a) The water pans facilities which require desilting include; -Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) The following critical boreholes are not operational due to management challenges. -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Napetot, Karun and Cherelio boreholes in Kolloa are broken down and require repairs. d) Kapedo Solar powered borehole was vandalized during conflict requires reinstallation. e) Chewarany, Orusion, Apakizo, Kakonykony and Katuben springs in Maron are silted. These being main water sources in Maron, desiltation intervention will ensure access to adequate clean water. f) Provision of PVC tanks of10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres. g) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community. h) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. i) Design and Construction of Multi-purpose dams 6.1.3 Nutrition and Health Sector a) Komolion sentinel site have constantly recorded high level of malnutrition over the years. From the surveys conducted, the situation is mainly caused by rampant negligence of young children by parents who engage in alcoholism and hygiene related challenges. The county administration, public health and nutrition sector is called upon to come in and address this perennial menace. b) The HealthNutritional sector-working group to establish criteria for geographical and beneficiary targeting and integrate to the four established food and nutritional programs (facility based SFP, School Meals Programme, FFA, and GFD by Presidency) targeting sentinel sites with high MUAC levels. c) There is a request from the Nutrition sector to have MUAC Nutrition monthly monitoring done in Mulok, Mugurin and Kisanana in Mogotio Sub-county and Esageri and Bondeni in Koibatek. These can be taken up as part of the NDMA Monthly monitoring and supported by partners Stakeholders in the county. The NDMA is willing to provide technical support if other costs implications are met by sectorstakeholder. d) Intensify Mass screening and referrals in 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub-counties. e) Provision of food supplements in 150 facilities in the County f) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 6.1.4 Education Sector a) The following schools in East Pokot need support; Kongor, Chesawach, Nyakwala and Napur School needs ECD teacher, Kamurio primary school needs a staffroom. b) Loyeya, FCCK Tukolkol, Nyakwala primary schools needs a classroom, pupils study under trees. c) Nginyang girls and Kolloa high school requires roof water catchment and storage tanks. d) Regular feeding programme to all schools. e) Provision of improved seeds to the community, improving of food storage techniques in schools and community. f) Mogotio be included in the HGSFP. g) Boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. h) Purchase of: -bee hives-goats-camels-cows and food stuffs (maize, beans) for schools in Tiaty. 6.1.5 Livestock Sector a) CCPP cases were reported across all the sentinel sites therefore it is important for the sector to take necessary action to control the spread of the disease. b) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD,CCPP,NCD,LSD) c) Beehives distribution. d) Pasture seed distribution. e) Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock. f) Water tracking to ease conflict between livestock, domestic and schools. g) Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle. 6.1.6 Agriculture Sector a) Provision of relief inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to farmers (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet) b) Subsidized Land preparation for affected households in 18 wards, Expansion of irrigation, fencing of irrigation scheme. c) Mapping out of areas for construction of water dams for irrigation. d) Fruit Trees Establishment, Soil conservation and water harvesting, Drip kits, Affruitation in Mogotio. e) Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Meteorological Environmental Environmental, Agricultural pastoral indicators within seasonal ranges drought indicators outside seasonal ranges least production indicators outside Long term seasonal ranges Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emaciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2017 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: NORMAL Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. 17.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of December. The December VCI values for Baringo County are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions. The Water level in water pans is above normal at 5 (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on a stable trend. The situation remains stable with 15 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 85 having moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is good across all livelihoods. Milk production is above normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade is currently above normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods zones, attributed to current body condition and market dynamics. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 12, which is below normal indicating stable trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal across all sub- counties. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiatty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 17.00 121 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 76(68) 82 50 (55) 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 35,432(maize) 20,681(bean) LTA(40799Ha) (23729Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards DECEMBER EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 17.00 mm was recorded in December coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 121 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The December SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The December VCI values for Baringo County remains normal across all the sub-counties. All the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 25th December 2017 BARINGO County 75.84 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. The off season and the OND rains have performed ABOVE normal which has positively impacted on the vegetation cover across all the livelihood zones. With the seasession of OND rains in December, the VCI is expected to deteriorate. Central 75.07 Eldama 64.46 Mogotio 68.10 North 70.09 South 78.91 Tiaty 81.50 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal drought status in 6 sub-counties in Baringo County (Baringo South and Tiaty having good vegetation cover). Fig.4.Source BOKU In December the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 75.84, which is above normal compared to the LTA. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the onset of the dry spell. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained good to fair during the month of December in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods; the situation is normal. Pasture condition was good in irrigated livelihood. Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral livelihood is good with some few pockets still fair. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The main sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were, rivers at 25, pan and dams at 22 and Rock cathment at 13. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume in most water pans is 80 to 100 of normal capacity. This is expected to last for about two to three months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources was 2.8 km in the month of December as compared to 3.2 km in the month November; that is normal at this time of the year. Households in Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 4.7 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered less that 1 km. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of December was at 4.7km; Agro pastoral covered the longest distance of 6.8km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 1 km. the distance decreased by 16 as compared to the previous month of November . This is attributed to availability of forage as influenced by the short rains that recharged most of the water sources. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the month of December; Livestock body condition was Good smooth appearance (score 6) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of easy access to forage and water following good rains across all livelihoods. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. Minimal intercounty migrations in pastoral livelihood zones,about 85 of livestock are in there traditional grazing zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported however CCPP, PPR, and ECF are endemic in the County. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimo soi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi,kolloa Shoats Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Fig.12 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in December was 1.8 litres; a slight decresase as compared to 1.9 litres repored in November. The amount was slightly below the long term average by 5. Fig. 13 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize crops have been harvested in all the wards. The yields were poor; below average as the crops were affected by the fall army worm infestation and unreliable rainfall spatial distribution. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle increased by 14 in the month of December to Ksh. 14,188 as compared to the month of November at Ksh. 12,440. The price was below the long term average by 18. Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.15,255 while the pastoral livelihood zone had the least average prices of Ksh.12,131. The prices were attributed to improved livestock body conditions and hightened purchases accassioned by the festive season. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat increased by 12 from Ksh. 2,420 in the month of November to Ksh. 2,709 in December. The prices were slightly above the long term this was attributed to good livestock body conditions, Speculation as a result of Kimalel Goat Aution and the festive season. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in December was at Ksh.48 fairly comparable to November. The price was however above the long-term average of Ksh. 42 at this time of the year by 14. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets and low supply injection from local households. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of December was at Ksh. 55 similar to the previous month. This was above the Long-term average of time of the year by 17. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County. 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was to Ksh. 120 in December as compared to Ksh. 121 in the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 21. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity in the local markets. 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade decreased from 58 in November to 57 kilogram in the month of December. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 23.9. The stability was due to the favourable livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 86 while the Agro Pastoral had the lowest at 50. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.7 litres in the month of December as compared to 1.8 litres in the month of November. The amount was similar the Long Term Average. The situation is due to availability of milk at Household. Fig 2 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of Dceember was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline and Poor FCS. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is favourable. This was due good rains performance coupled with improving pasturebrowse and water availability and improved overlaa livestock productivity. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 During the month of December 12.35 of the asssessed under-five children were at risk of malnutrition in the County. The number was below LTA by 15. The situation was due to availability of milk in the households in all livelihood Zones. However Kolowa and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 28 and 25 respectively. 4.1 .4 .Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 14.9 followed by Agro-Pastoral at 13.7. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.5 in the month of December. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa ,Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Technical training on adaptable agronomic systems e,g poultry farming, bee keeping, cattle keeping , aloe vera and plolculture by in koriema WFP NDMA 5.1.2 Food interventions HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Incidents of insecurity were reported in the Kagir in Baringo North where about 500 herds were stolen. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret shoats Akoret, Ribko shoats Wild dogs Akoret Calves Hyena Ribko shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been minimal migration reported in all the pastoral livelihood zones. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation has improved but remains unstable due to agricultural under- production but this might change with good performance of OND rains. With the onset of the dry season, water access and pasture will deteriorate leading to reduction in livestock productivity. The forage condition remains good but likely to deteriorate across all livelihood zones with the onset of the dry spell. If the current conditions change for the worse, food prices are likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting in reduced food accessibility and unaceptable dietary diversity, low nutrient value food intake coupled with decreasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food insecure 7.0. Sector Recommendations 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Community sensitization on WASH issues. c) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across County. d) Capacity building of emergency response teams. e) Provision of water treatment chemicals f) Repair of water bowzers and servicing of emergency response team vehicle. g) Equipping of critical water facilities. h) Purchasing and stockpiling of fast moving spares. i) Purchase of standby genset. 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Catch-up campaign on immunization 7.1.4 .Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Support to strategic roof water harvesting in institutions. 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of restocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. d) Prepositioning of assorted livestock supplementary feeds. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Postharvest manegment capacity building to minimise crop harevest loses. b) Support to preparation for households water harvesting structures(farm ponds). c) Support subsidies on land preparations. d) Enhance advisories in preparation for long rains",
            "Baringo 2017 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. 107.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of August. The August VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub- county were 51, 47 and 49 respectively. Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions. The Water level in water pans is below normal at 5 (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with 10 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 90 having moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is fair to good with improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is above normal and projected to improve further given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade have improved but below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones but expected to improve with the current conditions. Distances to water sources for households have reduced within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 13, which is below normal indicating improving trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiaty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 107.00 174 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 51(47) 49 54 (55) 52 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards AUGUST EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 107.00 mm was recorded in August coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 175 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The August SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The August VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 51, 47, 49 and 50 respectively. All the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th August 2017 BARINGO County Normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. The off season rains have performed better than normal rains which has positively impacted on the vegetation cover across all the livelihood zones. With the current offseason rains in August, the VCI will continue to improve. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal drought status in 6 sub-counties in Baringo County (Baringo South and Eldamaravin having good vegetation cover. Fig.4.Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 51, which has improved tremendously compared to the month of July at 35. This trend is expected to improve further with the current off seasons rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained fair to poor with a little improvement in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods; the situation is below normal but on an improving trend due to the off season rains being received. Pasture condition was good in irrigated livelihood. Browse Fig. 6 The browse conditions in pastoral livelihoods is fair to good with some few pockets still poor .The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is fair for livestock. The browse quality is on improving trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were mainly rivers at 25, pan and dams at (25) and Traditional Water Wells at 19. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume in most water pans is above 100 of normal capacity as attributed to the off-season rains recharge. This is expected to last for about three months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources reduced by 46 from 5.0 km in July to 2.7km in the month of August; this was attributed to the off seasons rainfall received in the county. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 6.7 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered 1 km. This is normal at this time of the year. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in August was above the long term average by 20 at 5.3km; compared to 7.9km in the month of July. Agro pastoral covered the longest distance of 10.4km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 2km. This is attributed to improving pasture as influenced by the ongoing off season rainfall which has recharged most of the water sources. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was moderate (score 5) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and good smooth appearance (score6) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of easy access to pasture and browse following off-season rains across all livelihoods. This situation is expected to improve should the off-season rains continue. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. There has been no migration reported in all the wards; about 90 of livestock are in there traditional grazing zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported but CCPP, PPR, Heart water and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimosoi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Tirioko,Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Saimo soi Cattle Fig.13 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household increased to 2.6 litres in August as compared to the previous month and by 37 above the long term average of 1.9litres. The increase was attributed to good pasture and browse condition across all livelihood zones and reduced grazing distances. Fig. 14 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently theres only about 20 crops on the farms, as 80 of the crops were completely destroyed by fall army Worm in all the sentinel sites. The available maize crop is at grain filling stage. The off seasons rains rejuvenated most maize crops that had withered: the expected production will be below average. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.15 The average prices of cattle increased by 18 from Ksh7, 950 in July to Ksh.9, 368 in the month of August. The Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.15, 000 while the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least prices of Ksh.8, 036. The prices were attributed to fair animal body condition and opening of some livestock markets especially in Tiaty Sub- County. The price was below the long-term mean of Ksh.11, 101 by 20. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.16 The average price of a goat in the month of August increased by 5 to Ksh 1,865 as compared to Ksh.1,773 reported in July. This price was below the long term average by 21. This is attributed to improving body conditions and general market dynamics at play in the local operational markets. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,730 and Agro Pastoral recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 1,651. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.52 in August, this was a decrease compared to Ksh.58 recorded in the month of July. The price was however above the long-term average of Ksh. 49 at this time of the year. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets and reopening of markets and resumption of normalcy in the insecure parts allowing for movements of goods and services 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 Posho prices decreased to Kshs. 59 as compared to Kshs.68. in July. This was slightly above the Long- term average of time of the year by 7. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County. 3.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans was Ksh. 120 in August; the price was above the long-term mean by 18. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 130 and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trades are currently at 46.2 kilogram cereal per goat sold this is fairly comparable to that recorded in the month of July. The current ToT is below the long-term average by 31. The terms of trade are expected to improve due to the increasing livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 63 while the Agro pastoral had the lowest at 25. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household increased to 1.8 litres in the month of August as compared to 1.6 litres in the month of July. The increase was attributed to increase in the milk production across all livelihood zones. In comparison with a normal year of 1.7 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is slightly above normal. Fig 21 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of August was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline and poor FCS. Food security situation improved across all livelihood zones as compared to the month July. This was due off season rainfall performance coupled with improving pasturebrowse and water availability. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of August was 13 compared to 14 in July; which is below LTA by19 . The decrease was due to consorted mass screening and referrals, outreaches and slight increase of milk availability at household level and access to local growing green vegetables. Komolion ward recorded the highest levels of malnutrition at 26 4.1 .4 .Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.3, followed by Agro-Pastoral at 17.5 and fishing livelihood zone at index 14.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4.2 within the month of August. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions CFA projects ongoing in Ngambo, Kiserian, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision, Basic Health Care and Nutrition screening services, Case Management for Mal nutrition - SFP, OTP and FBP(KRCS) Cash Transfer in Tiaty by WFP and WVK Mass screening and nutritional outreaches supported by Action Aid Kenya and MoH WASH interventions targeting 15 schools and IDP centres in East Pokot sub County. 5.1.2 Food interventions HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket feeding by WFP in East Pokot for lactating mothers, under-fives and lactating mothers. Protection ration support targeting households in 3 wards of East Pokot Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through health facilities in East Pokot Subsidised four meals by the National government target all Baringo Sub Counties. 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Generally no major insecurity incidences were reported in the county apart from a few insecurity incidences reported in, Chemoe and Yatya but no persons have moved so far. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 42 shoats Akoret, Ribko 23 shoats Wild dogs Ngambo 9 sheep Hyena Akoret 28shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been no migration reported in all the wards. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable but improving due to impacts of offseason rainfall despite the poor performance of long rains. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may bounce back to previous food insecurity situation given the seasons negative impacts on the on farm crop. If the current rains continue, water access and availability will likely continue to improve as a result of full recharge with existing water sources and likely to last for two months leading to full recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The forage condition remains fair to good and is likely to improve across all livelihood zones. If the current conditions continue, food prices are likely to maintain a decreasing trend resulting into increased food accessibility and improving dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, few households (20) in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be in phase 1 ,while in irrigated cropping livelihood zone about 70 of the households will be in phase 1. 7.0.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale and maintain surveillance, peace building meetings and patrols in all zones especially in Baringo North Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. d) Community sensitization on WASH issues. e) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across the County. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in hot spots and hard to reach sites. 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of restocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. 7.1.6 Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance, reporting and management of Fall Army Worm in the County. b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County.",
            "Baringo 2017 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. 58 mm of rainfall was received in the month of April. The April VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county were 11.7, 2.4 and 12.6 respectively. Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Baringo North are currently below normal ranges indicating extreme drought. The Water level in water pans is below normal at 2(10-30) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity but on an improving trend. Most Livestock are currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zone but some have moved back to their traditional grazing grounds occasioned by the ongoing security operations. Livestock body condition is poor across all livelihoods. Milk production is below normal and projected to improve with the onset of the long rains Over 3000 Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are below normal range and unfavourable to pastoral livelihoods zones. Distances to water sources for households are still high and currently above normal. Utilization indicators: Number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition is 26, which is above normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is above normal, especially in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL EMERGENCY IMPROVING PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING IRRIGATED ALARM IMPROVING COUNTY ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 58 (51) 55 268(139)133 80-120 VCI-3month 11.7(2.4)12.6 47 (41) 43 35-50 of water in the water pan 2(10-30) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 3(25-30) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) 3000 No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 23 wards reported 0-2 wards APRIL EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE An average rainfall of 58.00 mm was recorded coupled with high temperatures, strong winds and dusty weather conditions fairly comparable to the March weather conditions. Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA) Fig.1 In comparison to LTA of 169 mm, the current rainfall is below normal. Temperatures recorded decreased during the month to (30-35ocelsius). There were no other major climatologicalweather related events. 1.1.2. RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE 2 SUB COUNTIES BASED ON ARC DATA SOURCE Fig.2 Source ARV RFE In the Figure above, Mogotio received an approximate average rainfall of 51.00 mm within the month of March. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 135.0 mm, the current rainfall situation is below normal for this period of the year. Fig.3.Source ARV RFE Tiaty Sub County received an average rainfall of 55.00 mm within the month of April. In comparison to the long-term rainfall average of 172.00 mm, the current rainfall is below normal at this period of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The April VCI values for Baringo County, Eldama, Mogotio, East Pokot and Baringo North sub-counties were 11.7, 8.7, 2.4, 12.6 and 12.2 respectively. Mogotio and Eldama Ravine are currently below normal ranges indicating extreme drought as reflected in Fig.4. With the whole County experiencing severe vegetation deficit. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th April 2017 BARINGO County Negative trend with 3 sub-counties in the extreme vegetation deficit band and 3 sub-counties in severe vegetation deficit. The long rains season has been inadequate, with insufficient recharge of water sources and poor regeneration of pasture. Unless there will be adequate rains in May and June, the VCI will continue to decline in the next quarter, with a probable severe vegetation deficit that will significantly impact on local livelihoods. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.4 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates severe drought in all sub-counties in Baringo County, Tiaty, Baringo North, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio being worst affected and currently facing extreme drought. Fig.5.Source BOKU Fig.6 Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 11.7, which has improved compared to 10 in the month of March. This trend is expected to improve with the onset of the long rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture The pasture quality and quantity remained largely poor (95) in all livelihood zones. The situation is below normal for the county but expected to improve given the prevailing weather conditions. Browse The browse conditions across all livelihoods has improved but most pockets are still poor (90). The situation is abnormal for the county. The browse is fairly palatable and quantity is poor for livestock. The browse quality is expected to improve with the on-going light showers. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource State of Water Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use were Rivers (23.9), Traditional water wells and pan and dams both at (19.6); fairly comparable to the month of March. The availability of water in the wards was still poor and on a worsening trend. The county received light showers but inadequate to recharge water sources. Currently most water pans volume capacity is still below 10 of normal. This is expected to last less than a month especially in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Both water quantity and quality is still poor across all livelihoods with over 23 wards reporting waterborne diseases and diarrhoeal cases. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The average distance from the households to water sources in the month of April was 11.5 km, fairly comparable to that of March at 11.5 km. Attributed to prolonged drought, poor water source recharge from the light showers and drying up of most water sources; pastoral regions of the county being most affected. Households in pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of 10 km and 6 km respectively to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.9 Grazing distance in April was 11.9km that was fairly comparable to that recorded in March at 11.4 km. This is attributed to poor pasture and browse condition, increasing watering distances and banditry in pastoral areas. Households in Pastoral all species livelihood zone covered the longest distances of 9-35km to grazing areas as compared to 2-6 km covered by those in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. B.SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was very poor (emaciated) especially for cattle in pastoral livelihood zones; very thin in Agro-Pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. This is attributed to deteriorated water and poor forage quality and quantity in the county. This is expected to improve with the onset of the long rains. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlar Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs vi 4 Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head7 Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.10 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns. Some herds have moved back to their traditional grazing grounds but most pastoralists are still grazing their herds on their last phase of fall back grazing grounds. Animals from Solar, Kapau, Napur, Chesawach and Pkatil hills are still at Lomelo Lopeitom, Kasarani and Kapururu borders of Turkana County. Pastoralists from Orus and Amaya are still at Arabal and Mukutani and parts of Laikipia County, while those from Baringo North Sub- County are in Elgeyo Marakwet County. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases Confirmed 3000 Cases of Foot and Mouth disease outbreak were reported in Eldama Ravine, Emining and Mogotio areas but the cases have subside due to ongoing vaccination. CCPP and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolloa, Ilchamus, Saimo Soi, Kamurio, Kiserian Goats and Sheep. 72 sheep and goats Mogotio, Ilchamus, Tirioko and Ribko and kerio valley Silale, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, shoats 23 shoats Mukutani , Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Cattle Diarrhoea Komolion, Ribko Sheep Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, Cattle 95 shoats MANGE Kamurio, Ribko, Saimo soi shoats 41 shoats RED WATER , Tirioko, Akoret cattle Fig.11 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in April was 1.4 litres a decrease from 1.7litres reported in March as attributed to poor quality of pasture and browse and minimal calving from resident herds at household level. Compared to long-term average of 1.6 litres the production was below normal. Fig. 12 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have prepared their land (80) with 30 having dry planted in anticipation of long rains onset Some farmers in Koibatek have started weeding. The land under irrigated crops especially in Perkerra has significantly reduced due to declining water levels in the river. Low rainfall performance currently igniting worries among farmers who had already planted. 3 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.13 The average prices of cattle dropped to Ksh.6, 389 in April compared to Marchs Ksh 8,224. This is attributed to poor animal body condition due to deteriorated forage quality. The prices were below the long-term mean of Ksh.12, 921. Irrigated livelihood zone maintained the highest average cattle price of Ksh 10,000. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.14 The average price of a goat in the month of April decreased by 9 to Ksh.1, 496 as compared to Ksh.1, 546 reported in March. This is attributed to poor livestock body conditions. The prices are below normal at this time of the year. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh.2, 500 and lowest price of Ksh 1,055 was recorded in Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.15 The average price per kilogram maize increased to Ksh.62 in April, compared to Ksh.57 recorded in March. This price was above the long-term averages of Ksh.44 at this time of the year. Pastoral all species livelihood zone had the highest average price of Ksh.65 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the lowest price of Ksh.46. 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.16 The average Posho price per kilogram increased to Ksh.70 in April, compared to Ksh.63 in March, which was above the Long-term average of Ksh.54 at this time of the year. This is attributed to diminishing stocks at household level, reduced supplies in the local markets and closure of local markets as occasioned by insecurity. Posho average prices were highest in the pastoral all species livelihood zone (Ksh 75). It was lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone where it retailed for Ksh 55. 3.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.17 The average price per kilogram of beans increased to Ksh. 127 in April as compared to Ksh.114 in March. This is attributed to increased demand for planting materials. Beans prices were highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone (Ksh 125) and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 18 Average Terms of trade are currently at 29-kilogram cereal per goat sold. Compared to 42 kilogram per goat sold in the month of March, the terms of trade have worsened. This is attributed to declining livestock body condition, closure of local livestock markets due to insecurity and poor prices. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.4 litres in the month of April same as 1.4 litres in March. This is attributed to poor milk production and increased livestock movements. In comparison with a normal year of 1.5 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is below normal at this time of the year. Fig 19 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.20 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month was poor and borderline. All livelihoods zones reported some poor FCS. Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood were the most food insecure due to poor crop harvests and on-going drought. 4.1.3Currentaveragenutritionalstatus Apr May Jun Long Term Mean Percentage Muac 2017 Fig. 21 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of April was 26 compared to 24 in March, this is above the 17 LTA. The highest malnutrition rates were recorded in, Kollowa,Mukutani and Komolion wards at 72,44.7 and 52.6 respectively. 4.1.4 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 22, followed by Agro-Pastoral and fishing livelihood zone at index 15. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4.1 within the month of April. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions De-silting of water pans and provision of filters by GoK. Water Trucking.(MOW and NDMA) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD and PPR (MOALF,BCG,NDMA) CFA projects ongoing in Kolloa, Tangulbei, Churo, Loiwat, Ngoron, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and RED CROSS. Livestock Supplementary Feeds (hay Concentrates) distribution by County Government and NDMA. Livestock off-take and Slaughter destocking by MOALF (County), NDMA, GoK Vitamin A Supplementation, Zinc Supplementation, Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM), IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods), SMART Survey, Deworming by MOH and World Vision, Basic Health Care and Nutrition screening services, Case Management for Mal nutrition - SFP, OTP and FBP(KRCS) 6.0 Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences reported in Marigat, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny and Chemorongion area in Baringo South 10 people were shot dead and hundreds of cattle and goats stolen. About 5,882 children and 10,195 adults have been displaced from these affected areas(Baringo South and Baringo North) Nyimbei, Kirim, Sosionde, Chebinyiny, Chemorongion, Kasiela, Arabal, Kapindasum, Sambaka, Sinoni, Kabel, Lamaiwe, Salabani- Kokwo, Kaporion, Karimo, Chepkwel, Moinonin, Akoreyan, Sibilo, Rondinin, Yatia, Ngenyin, Loruk and Kipsaraman. The military has been deployed to the conflict zones to flash out bandits and restore normalcy. Cases of insecurity triggered by cattle rustling between the Turkana and Pokot were reported of which eight persons lost life. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 47 goats Akoret, Ribko 16 goats Hyena Akoret, Ribko 42-shoats Fig.23 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. Over 1000 residents from Arabal, Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian have moved to Mochongoi and Marigat; those from Yatya, Chemoe, Naatan Ngaratuko have moved to Moinonin, Rondinin and Kipsaraman due conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation remains unstable and is likely to deteriorate due to the current drought and delayed onset of the long rains. Water access and availability has continued to diminish but likely to improve if good rains are received in all livelihood zones. The on-going security operations have limited access to critical livelihood facilities by both humans and livestock and will likely exacerbate the current food insecurity situation in county With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may result into insufficient rangeland regeneration, low water recharge levels and below average crop production. Food prices will likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting to worsening dietary diversity, low nutrient value food intake coupled with decreasing meal frequency at household level. Most households in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and livelihood zones are likely to be in phase (IPC crisis Phase 3) while in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone will be in minimal Stressed phase 2. 7.0.0 Sector Recommendations 7.1.1 General Recommendations: County security teams need to upscale surveillance, peace building and patrols in all dry season grazing zones especially in Nasoguro Rugus, Mukutani Kiserian and Arabal. Upscale of drought response recovery activities where applicable by all actors. Accelerated provision of farm inputs to farmers Operationalization support for CFA on the scaled up figures Provision of pasture seeds to farmer groups 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Desilting of critical water pans -Kwarkawarian and Nawe in Yatya -Chewuwai pan dam in Akoret. b) Repair and installation of critical high yielding non-operational boreholes in the water scarce LHs -Barsuswo, Natan, and Kapkoi in Yatya -Kapau borehole in Akoret. -Loyeya borehole in Komolion -Chemolingot town borehole c) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community. d) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. 7.1.3 Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening, referrals and Provision of food supplements in 150 Health facilities in the County. b) Enhance Integrated outreach services in 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 7.1.4 Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5 Livestock a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD,CCPP,NCD,LSD) b) Beehives distribution. c) Pasture seed distribution. d) Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock. e) Upscale slaughter destocking. 7.1.6 Agriculture f) Provision of relief inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to farmers. g) Subsidized Land preparation for affected households in 18 wards, Expansion of irrigation, fencing of irrigation scheme. h) Fruit Trees Establishment, Soil conservation and water harvesting, Drip kits in Mogotio.",
            "Baringo 2017 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2017 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: ALARM Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. 178.0 mm of rainfall was received in the month of September. The September VCI values for Baringo County, Mogotio and East Pokot sub-county were 67, 66 and 65 respectively. Tiaty, Baringo North and Mogotio are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions. The Water level in water pans is above normal at 5 (100-70) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with 10 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 90 having moved back to their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is fair to good with improvement across all livelihoods. Milk production is above normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade have improved and above normal range and favourable to pastoral livelihoods zones, attributed current weather conditions. Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 14, which is below normal indicating stable trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases is below normal across all sub- counties. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiatty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM 178.00 96 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 67(66) 65 57 (61) 53 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by March) 30(maize) 25(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 0-2 wards SEPTEMBER EW PHASE A. BIOPHYSICAL INDICATORS 1.1.0 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1. RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 107.00 mm was recorded in August coupled with low temperatures, strong winds and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 175 mm. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The September SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be normal. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The August VCI values for Baringo County improved across all the sub-counties. All the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges indicating normal vegetation conditions as reflected in Fig.3. With the whole County experiencing normal vegetation condition. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th September 2017 BARINGO County 66.72 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. The off season rains have performed better than normal rains which has positively impacted on the vegetation cover across all the livelihood zones. With the current offseason rains in September, the VCI will continue to improve. Central 61.25 Eldama 69.34 Mogotio 66.39 North 66.78 South 71.23 Tiaty 65.36 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates normal drought status in 6 sub-counties in Baringo County (Baringo South and Eldamaravin having good vegetation cover. Fig.4.Source BOKU In the reporting month the vegetation cover for Baringo County was 67, which has improved tremendously compared to the month of August at 51. This trend is expected to improve further with the expected short rains. 1.2.2 Field Observations (Forage Conditions) Pasture Fig.5 The pasture quality and quantity remained good to fair with much improvement in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods; the situation is below normal but on an improving trend due to the off season rains being received. Pasture condition was good in irrigated livelihood. Browse Fig. 6 The browse conditions in pastoral livelihoods are fair to good with some few pockets still fair. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is fair for livestock. The browse quality is on improving trend. 1.3.0 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource Fig.8 The sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were mainly rivers at 23, pan and dams at 28 and Traditional Water Wells at 15. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume in most water pans is above 100 of normal capacity as attributed to the off-season rains recharge. This is expected to last for about three months in all livelihood zones. Water borne disease cases were reported in Ribko ward. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 2.7km in the month of August to 3.4 km in the month September; this was attributed to the cessation off seasons rainfall received in the county. Households in Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 6.4 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered less that 1 km. This is normal at this time of the year. 1.3.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in September was above the long term average by 45 at 5.8km; compared to 5.6km in the month of August. Agro pastoral covered the longest distance of 7.7km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 1km. This is attributed to improving pasture as influenced by the ongoing off seasons rainfall which has recharged most of the water sources. B. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition were moderate, fair smooth appearance (score 5) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score6) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of easy access to pasture and browse following off-season rains across all livelihoods. This situation is expected to improve should the off-season rains continue. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns There has been no migration reported in all the wards; about 90 of livestock are in there traditional grazing zones. 2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported but CCPP, PPR, Heart water and ECF are endemic in these areas. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Saimosoi, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Tirioko, Saimosoi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kamurio, Napur, Chemartasi Shoats Saimo soi Cattle Fig.13 2.1.4 Milk Production Average milk production per household in increased to 2.3 litres in September as compared, the previous month at 2.6 litres. The amount was above the long term average by 21. The increase was attributed to good pasture and browse condition across all livelihood zones and reduced grazing distances. Fig. 14 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently there are only about 70 of maize that survived the Fall Army Warm is at grain filling, 30 are at harvesting. 80 of the beans planted during the off season rains are at harvesting stage with 20 at flowering stage. The expected production will be below average. 3.0.0 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1.0 LIVESTOCK PRICES 3.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.15 The average prices of cattle increased by 13 from Ksh.9, 368 in the month of August to Ksh. 10,564 in the month of September. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.13, 200 while the Pastoral livelihood zone had the least prices of Ksh.8, 546. The prices were attributed to fair animal body condition and opening of some livestock markets especially in Tiaty Sub- County. The price was below the long-term mean of Ksh.14, 033 by 25. 3.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.16 The average price of a goat in the month of September increased by 18 to Ksh 2,202 as compared to Ksh. 1,865 reported in August. This price was below the long term average by 10. This is attributed to improving body conditions and general market dynamics at play in the local operational markets. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average price of Ksh. 2,572 and Agro Pastoral recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 1,882. 3.2.0 CROP PRICES 3.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize retailed at Ksh.53 in September. The price was however above the long-term average of Ksh. 44 at this time of the year by 21. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets and reopening of markets and resumption of normalcy in the insecure parts allowing for movements of goods and services 3.2.2 Posho Prices Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of September were similar to the previous month at Ksh. 59. This was slightly above the Long-term average of time of the year by 14. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County 3.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans was Ksh. 104 in September; the price was slightly above the long- term mean. The prices were still high due to scarcity of commodity. Beans prices were highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 124 and lowest in the irrigated livelihood zone (Ksh 100). 3.2.4 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trades are currently at 50.9 kilogram cereal per goat sold this is fairly comparable to that recorded in the month of August at 46.2. The current ToT is below the long-term average by 9. The terms of trade are expected to improve due to the increasing livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 70 while the Agro pastoral had the lowest at 31. 4.0. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 4.1.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household increased slightly to 1.9 litres in the month of September as compared to 1.8 litres in the month of July. The increase was attributed to increase in the milk production across all livelihood zones. In comparison with a normal year of 1.7 litres the current milk consumption rate per household is slightly above normal. Fig 21 4.1.2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 The most prevalent county food consumption score for the month of September was acceptable. All livelihoods zones reported Borderline and poor FCS. Food security situation improved across all livelihood zones as compared to the month July. This was due off season rainfall performance coupled with improving pasturebrowse and water availability. 4.1.3 Current average nutritional status vs average nutritional status MUAC 135mm. Fig. 23 The percentage of under-five children at risk of malnutrition in the County within the month of September was 14.1 compared to 13.1 in August; which is below LTA by 12. The slight increase was due to high diarrhoea cases in Ribko ward recording 26 and Komolion ward recording levels of malnutrition at 24 levels of malnutrition. 4.1.4 .Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19.7 followed by Pastoral at 17 and fishing livelihood zone at index 14. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2 within the month of September. 5.0.0 On-Going Interventions 5.1.1 Non-food interventions CFA rain Agriculture projects on-going in Koriema, Kiserian, Endao and Ilchamus by NDMAWFP and REDCROSS Nutrition outreaches in Kapau,Naudo, Seretion, Chesawach, Chewara, Chepkiriang. Riongo and Chesitet by KRC,ACTIONAID and UNICEF Disease Surveillance and CCPP vaccination in Kinyach, Kipmnai by the Department of livestock Capacity building of groups on bee keeping by the Department of livestock Pasture reseeding fast tracking by the Department of livestock Cash Transfer in Tiaty by WFP and WVK Water trucking to schools in Kimalel, Radat and Kambi Samaki. Borehole rehabilitation in Chemolingot in Tiaty and Muchongoi Baringo South. 5.1.2 Food interventions HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Tiaty Health Nutrition Program supported by Action Aid Kenya and MoH Blanket feeding by WFP in East Pokot for lactating mothers, under-fives and lactating mothers. Protection ration support targeting households in 3 wards of East Pokot Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through health facilities in East Pokot Subsidised four meals by the National government target all Baringo Sub Counties. 6.0. Emerging Issues 6.1.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Generally no major insecurity incidences were reported in the county. 6.1.2 Human Wildlife Conflict The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret 42 shoats Akoret, Ribko 23 shoats Wild dogs Ngambo 9 sheep Hyena Akoret, Ribko 28shoats Fig.25 6.1.3 Migration - limited to migrations of persons There has been no migration reported in all the wards. 6.2.1 Food Security Prognosis The County food security situation has improved but remains unstable due to under-production but this might change with good performance of OND rains. With delayed onset of the long rains coupled with below normal seasons projection by the Meteorological department imply that the current situation may bounce back to previous food insecurity situation given the seasons negative impacts on farm crop. If the off seasons rains continue, water access and pasture will continue to improve leading to full recovery of livestock in terms of productivity. The forage condition remains fair to good and is likely to improve across all livelihood zones. If the current conditions continue, food prices are likely to maintain a decreasing trend resulting into increased food accessibility and improving dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, few households (20) in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be in phase 1 ,while in irrigated cropping livelihood zone about 70 of the households will be in phase 1. 7.0. Sector Recommendations 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community run water facilities. c) Water trucking and Water treatment chemicals in areas with acute water shortages. d) Community sensitization on WASH issues. e) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across the County. 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance Integrated outreach services in hot spots and hard to reach sites. 7.1.4 .Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Creation of temporary boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas. 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of restocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Increased surveillance, reporting and management of Fall Army Worm in the County. b) Purchase and distribution and awareness creation of FAW control chemicals to affected farmers in the County."
        },
        "DEWS_2018": {
            "Baringo 2018 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2018 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of October 2018. The October Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5 (60-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good to fair in both quality and quantity but on an improving trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones Distances to water sources for households are within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 10.6, which is below normal. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 62.00 72 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 5(60-100) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig .1.source: ARV An average of 62 mm rainfall was recorded in October coupled with decreasing temperatures and cold. This is below the LTA of 72.00 mm. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of October, 10 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 33 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 20 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was evenly distributed across all the sub-counties. Fig.2. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The October land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County have increased to 36.150 C, which is slightly above normal. This is expected to decrease with the onset of the short rains. Fig.3.source: LST-C6 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The October vegetation cover for Baringo County shows above average trend across all livelihood zones. The current trend has reduced compared to the month of September. COUNTY County VCI as at 30th September 2018 VCI as at 31st October 2018 BARINGO County 63.14 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county reducing trend compared to last month. This is expected to change for the better with the onset of the short rains across all the livelihoods. Central 69.11 Eldama 68.61 Mogotio 79 69.59 North 62.59 South 65.05 Tiaty 58.74 Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, declining trend is observed across all the sub-counties. Fig.5.Source BOKU In October the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 63, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the short rains. Fig.6.Source: NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Baringo County is currently showing a worsening trend from September (0.58) 2018 to October (0.50). This is attributed to the impact lack of enough rains received in the month of August to September in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 5 The pasture condition is good to poor both in quantity and quality in livelihood zones across the county during the month. The current conditions are normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and two months in the irrigated livelihood zones. The pasture was poor mainly in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.6 The browse condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones as the quantity and quality was good in all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were pans and dams, Rivers and traditional River Wells. Most water pans and dams were at 40 to 60 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good but on a declining trend, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for two months in irrigated farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for one month due to high temperatures being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The households trekking distance increased in the month from 3.4 km to 3.9 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least average distance of 2 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.2km. The current distance is above the Long-term average. The increase in trekking distance is reduction of water sources occasioned by drying up of a number of water sources. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9 The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points remained stable at 5.9 km during the month. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest average distance of 7.5 km while irrigated covered the shortest average distance of 3.5 km. The situation is attributed to availability of forage and enough functional water points as a result of the off seasons rains. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was neither fat nor thinin Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good smooth appearance in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of availability of pasture and water as an impact of the long rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.9 litres, which was stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was relative; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones as a result of adequate forage. Fig. 10 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers are preparing their land in readiness to the Short rains season. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle decreased by 11 to Ksh.18, 389 in the reporting month as compared Ksh.20, 630 to the previous month. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 61. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.24, 000 while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, 305. The prices were attributed to the good livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat was relatively stable at Ksh.2, 998 as compared to previous month. The average Goat prices were highest in Pastoral livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,142 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,500. The prices were above the long-term average by 27 . 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.33 during the month, which was a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 22. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.25 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh.42 relatively comparable to the previous month at Ksh.44. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 16. This reduction is attributed to recent seasonal harvests. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 The price per kilogram for beans remained stable for the month at Ksh.103. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .19 The terms of trade improved from 85.3 in September to 89.9 during the month of October. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 70. The favourable terms of trade were due to increase in the livestock prices and reduced food prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 125 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 82. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was stable at 1.8 litres compared to the previous month at 1.7 litres. The amount was slightly above the long-term average by 13. Fig. 20 Food Consumption Score Fig.20. There were no proportions of households with poor food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 10 and 11.7 in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 10 and 90 of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to seasonal harvests by local farmers, low prices of major commodities at the local markets, milk availability and high households purchasing power. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.21. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition remained stable at 10.6 as compared to the previous month at 10.5. The stability was attributed to availability of milk at households and the fact that most of the households have access to a wide range of food groups. Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 39.6 and 24 respectively. Kitopass and Chemakna areas in Ribko ward are the most affected. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were malaria in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The average coping strategy index remained stable at 12.7 in October compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 17.7 followed by Pastoral at 13.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.8 The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Participatory community action planning for Sustainable food system programme by WFP, Baringo County Government, NDMA and World Vision in 8 wards, Baseline survey for Silale Area Development programme establishment by World Vision, Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by Baringo County Government at six sub counties, Routine clinical treatment of normal livestock diseases by the livestock sector extension staff, Capacity building through pastoral field schools in six Field Schools supported by Regional Pastoral Livelihood resilience project and Baringo County Government, Inter-county cluster meeting (Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia and Samburu) to discuss realignment of participatory disaster risk assessment report for joint resource mobilization on resilience building initiatives. Routine medical outreaches by KRCS Construction of shelter for flood victims in Baringo South Food Aid Distribution of relief food to Eldume IDP returnees of Mukutani by NG and BCG Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were reported livestock theft in Arabal areas but livestock were later recovered There are human wildlife conflicts where livestock were killed as highlighted in the table below; Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of October. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Pasture and forage productivity is still good, hence good livestock body condition and milk production. Seasonal harvests were above average in Agro-Pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. These factors will impact positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to remain low and stable in the next 2-3 months. However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and IDP being resettled vulnerable due chronic exposure occasioned by initial displacement and insecurity. This group will require close monitoring and support during this period. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: a) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors though 9 Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA processes) b) General support to the Resettlement of the relocated Mukutani IDPs in terms of NFIs and farm inputs to commence reactivation of the rehabilitated Mukutani irrigation scheme 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector 1. Need assessment for Mukutani water supply system and rehabilitation 2. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 3. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 4. Strategic high impact water harvesting structures 5. Capacity building for Water Resource User management Committees RMC 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. d) Support Re-distribution of nutrition commodities from facilities with over stocks to facilities without stocks (Preposition health and nutrition commodities) e) Support to malaria control through provision of mosquito nets across all the sub-counties. 8.2.3. Education a) Support roof water harvesting in schools through provision and replacement of destroyed infrastructure. b) Assessment and rehabilitation of Mukutani primary school for resumption of learning for the initially displaced IDPs. (c) Proposed construction of a Model Boarding Primary school to address chronic illiteracy, FGM and early marriage challenges in East Pokot. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Livestock disease control through vaccinations against notifiable dieses such as CCPP, FMD, in Tiaty, Mogotio and Baringo South; LSD in Baringo North (Barwessa), Mogotio and Marigat; (Blue Tongue) in all sub-counties. b) Support of community on pasture post-harvest management through trainings and construction of hay sheds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives d) Enhance capacity building to farmer groups on livestock enterprises e) Promote commercial off-take for goats through annual Kimalel auction. f) Carry out disease surveillance as the OND rains commence. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector a) Capacity building of farmers on post-harvest management and food handling and linkage to markets b) Supply of inputs to farmers in Baringo North and Baringo South affected by insecurity through Baringo livelihood recovery support programme for the short rains c) Capacity building on land preparation for the coming season REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2018 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of November 2018. The November Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 4 (40-80). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good to fair in both quality and quantity but expected to improve if the short rains perform above average. The situation remains stable with most Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and most households can still afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges. Pastoral livelihood zones mostly affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 9,an improvement compared to last month. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 30.00 137 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 4(40-80) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig .1.source: ARV An average of 30 mm rainfall was recorded in November coupled with decreasing temperatures and cold. This is below the LTA of 137.00 mm. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of November, 13 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 22 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 6 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was unevenly distributed across all the sub- counties. Fig.2. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The November land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County have remained stable at 350 C, which is slightly above normal (330). This is expected to decrease with the ongoing short rains. Fig.3.source: LST-C6 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The November vegetation cover for Baringo County shows above average trend across all livelihood zones. The current trend has reduced compared to the month of September. COUNTY County VCI as at 31st October 2018 VCI as at 31st November 2018 BARINGO County 63.14 59.18 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county reducing trend compared to last month. This is expected to change for the better with the onset of the short rains across all the livelihoods. Central 69.11 69.93 Eldama 68.61 65.52 Mogotio 69.59 63.71 North 62.59 57.49 South 65.05 60.71 Tiaty 58.74 54.97 Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, declining trend is observed across all the sub-counties. Fig.5.Source BOKU In November the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 59, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the short rains. Fig.6.Source: NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Baringo County is currently showing a stable trend in November 2018(0.48) compared to the month of October. This is below LTA of (0.55).This is attributed to the impact of short rains received in the month of October to November in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 5 The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones in the county. The current conditions are normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and two months in the irrigated livelihood zones. The pasture was poor mainly in some areas in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.6 The browse condition is good to fair in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and five months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were pans and dams, Rivers and traditional River Wells. Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 70 of their full capacity. Most households are currently using pans, dams and rivers Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good to fair but on a declining trend, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for two months in irrigated farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for one month due to high temperatures being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The households trekking distance increased in the month from 3.9 km to 5.6 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least average distance of 1.9 km while agro-pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.6km. The current distance is above the Long-term average. The increase in trekking distance is attributed to reduction of water levels in some of water sources occasioned by drying up of a number of traditional water sources. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9 The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased to 7.7 km during the month. The agro-pastoral livelihoods covered the longest average distance of 6.1 km while mixed farming covered the shortest average distance of 2.0 km. The situation is attributed to poor quality of forage and lack of water in some areas within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good to fair across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was neither fat nor thinin Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good smooth appearance in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of availability of pasture and water as an impact of the long rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 2.0 litres, which was stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was relative; this was attributed to good livestock body conditions in most livelihood zones as a result of adequate forage. Fig. 10 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have prepared their land in readiness to the Short rains season and some of these farmers have already planted. Some farmers within Baringo north have not planted this season in fear of in- adequate rains to support production. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle decreased by 12 to Ksh.16, 257 in the reporting month as compared to Ksh.18, 389 to the previous month. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 22. Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.17, 857 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14, 669. The prices were attributed to the good livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat was relatively stable at Ksh.2, 955 as compared to previous month. The average Goat prices were highest in agro-pastoral livelihood Zone at Ksh. 4,390 and lowest in Mixed farming livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,125. The prices were above the long-term average by 13 . 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.35 during the month, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 24. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.60 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.20 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh.41 relatively comparable to the previous month at Ksh.42. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 21. This reduction is attributed to recent seasonal harvests indication the product is plenty in the market therefore pushing down the price. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 The price per kilogram for beans increased to Ksh.105 compared to Ksh.103 of the previous month. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .19 The terms of trade reduced from 89.9 in October to 87.1 during the month of November. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 38. The favourable terms of trade were due to decrease in the livestock prices due to high supply of livestock in the market (most farmers are selling their livestock in readiness for the festive season) and increase in food prices. Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the highest at 144 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 101. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was stable at 1.7 litres compared to the previous month at 1.8 litres. The amount consumed is normal at this time of the year. Fig. 20 Food Consumption Score Fig.20. There were no proportions of households with poor food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 14 and 10 in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 12 and 88 of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to previous seasonal harvests by local farmers and favourable climatic conditions to support production. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.21. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition improved to 9 as compared to the previous month at 10.6. The improvement is attributed to availability of milk at households and the fact that most of the households have access to a wide range of food groups. Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 25 and 26 respectively. Kitopass and Chemakna areas in Ribko ward are the most affected. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and skin diseases in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The average coping strategy index remained stable at 12.6 in November compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 17 followed by Pastoral at 13. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Participatory community action planning for Sustainable food system programme by WFP, Baringo County Government, NDMA and World Vision in 8 wards, Baseline survey for Silale Area Development programme establishment by World Vision, Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by Baringo County Government at six sub counties, Routine clinical treatment of normal livestock diseases by the livestock sector extension staff, Capacity building through pastoral field schools in six Field Schools supported by Regional Pastoral Livelihood resilience project and Baringo County Government, Inter-county cluster meeting (Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia and Samburu) to discuss realignment of participatory disaster risk assessment report for joint resource mobilization on resilience building initiatives. Routine medical outreaches by KRCS Construction of shelter for flood victims in Baringo South Food Aid Distribution of relief food to Eldume IDP returnees of Mukutani by NG and BCG Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major reported livestock thefts. Cases of livestock theft reported in Ngoron and Kapedo where 2 deaths were reported in Kapedo. This has since caused tension between the Pokot and the Turkanas. Two people killed in Yatya and 22 livestock stolen in Ngaratuko area of Baringo North. There were human wildlife conflicts where livestock were killed as highlighted in the table below; Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been minimal intra-county migrations reported in the county during the month of November more so within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Pasture and forage productivity is still good to fair, hence good to fair livestock body condition and milk production. Seasonal harvests were above average in Agro-Pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. These factors have impacted positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to remain stable in the next 2-3 months. However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and IDP being resettled vulnerable due chronic exposure occasioned by initial displacement and insecurity. This group will require close monitoring and support during this period. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: a) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors though 9 Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA processes) b) General support to the Resettlement of the relocated Mukutani IDPs in terms of NFIs and farm inputs to commence reactivation of the rehabilitated Mukutani irrigation scheme 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector 1. Need assessment for Mukutani water supply system and rehabilitation 2. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 3. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 4. Strategic high impact water harvesting structures 5. Capacity building for Water Resource User management Committees RMC 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. d) Support Re-distribution of nutrition commodities from facilities with over stocks to facilities without stocks (Preposition health and nutrition commodities) e) Support to malaria control through provision of mosquito nets across all the sub-counties. 8.2.3. Education (a) Support roof water harvesting in schools through provision and replacement of destroyed infrastructure. (b) Assessment and rehabilitation of Mukutani primary school for resumption of learning for the initially displaced IDPs. (c) Proposed construction of a Model Boarding Primary school to address chronic illiteracy, FGM and early marriage challenges in East Pokot. (d) Capacity build the community on impacts and effects of FGM. (e) Promote introduction of sustainable agro-forestry to control landslide in the Highland. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Livestock disease control through vaccinations against notifiable dieses such as CCPP, FMD, in Tiaty, Mogotio and Baringo South; LSD in Baringo North (Barwessa), Mogotio and Marigat; (Blue Tongue) in all sub-counties. b) Support of community on pasture post-harvest management through trainings and construction of hay sheds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives d) Enhance capacity building to farmer groups on livestock enterprises e) Promote commercial off-take for goats through annual Kimalel auction. f) Carry out disease surveillance as the OND rains commence. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector a) Capacity building of farmers on post-harvest management and food handling and linkage to markets b) Support Climate Smart Agriculture Interventions c) Carryout Soil sampling and testing d) Support farmers with inputs especially seeds and seedlings e) Soil and water conservation especially on denuded farm lands f) Support to Agricultural extension for improved extension service delivery REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2018 MAY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of May 2018. The May Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and improving. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5(70-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to improved livestock conditions decreasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are decreasing and within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 16.3, which is below normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 2 wards. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 91.00 195 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 82(82)91 38(35) 39 35-50 Of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA (400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data: fig .1.source:ARV An average rainfall of 91 mm was recorded in May coupled with low temperatures and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 195.00 mm. temporal distribution was good. The rainfall amount received resulted to floods and landslides in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and mixed farming livelihoods. 1.2 .AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of May, 85 mm of rainfall were received in the 1st dekad, 72 mm were received in the second dekad and 73 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were above normal at this time of the year. Generally, the MAM season rains were good in spatial distribution and early onset realized within the 3rd dekad of February compared to the previous season same time. The rainfall were evenly distributed across all the sub- counties. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The May SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The May vegetation cover for Baringo County shows improving trend across all livelihood zones. This situation is expected to improve further with the ongoing long rains. VCI for all the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 31st May 2018 BARINGO County Improved vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. With the on-going long rains vegetation cover is expected to improve further. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, more improvement still expected with on-going rains. Fig.4.Source BOKU In May the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 82, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the current long rains. 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality in all livelihood zones across the county this due the high amounts of rainfall received during the month of May. The pasture is expected to last for more than three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and four months in the irrigated livelihood zones. The pasture condition was good in the irrigated livelihood zone and fair to good in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition continued to improve in all livelihood zones as no households reported poor condition, the conditions are similar to the previous month. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.8 The major water sources across all livelihoods were Rivers at 30, traditional river Wells at 25 and pans and dams at 25, Most open water sources were recharged to 90 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The situation is similar to the previous month. This is expected to last for about four months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 There was a decrease in the trekking distance in the month from 3.7km to 3.1km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least distance of 2km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 3.4km. the current distance was below the long term average by 31. The situation was attributed to recharge of water sources across the livelihoods 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.10 The grazing distance reduced by 15 during the month, from 6.8 km to 5.8km; the distance was marginally below the long-term average of 6km. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 6.2km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 3.7 km. The situation is attributed to regeneration of forage and recharge of watering points as a result of the rains received. 2.3 Implication to food security The ongoing long rains have positively impacted on the vegetation cover where pasture and browse conditions have improved. This has reduced distances covered to water points and grazing fields which have resulted to improved overall livestock productivity including livestock prices. Equally incidences of cattle rustling and armed conflict over resources have decreased across livelihoods influenced by minimal livestock movements and therefore most livestock markets are functional Reported cases of water borne diseases have reduced in the coming months as water quantity and quality continues to improve. More households within the pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones have access to food triggered by improved purchasing power. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition There was continued improvement in the livestock body condition across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was Good Smooth appearance (score 6) in Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score 7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of increased pasture and water due to on-going rains. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production A slight increase of 12.5 was recorded in average milk production as 1.8 litres was registered as compared to 1.6 Litres the previous month. The amount was above the long-term average by 12.5; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones. Fig. 13 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of May most farmers in the irrigated, agro pastoral and some parts of Pastoral livelihood zones have planted their farms. Most farms in irrigated livelihood Zones were destroyed by floods forcing the farmers to replant. The maize is at knee high in some pockets of across livelihood zones. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average price of cattle marginally decreased by 2 percent in the reporting month from Ksh. 16,037 to Ksh. 15,730 in the month of May. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 62. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.17, 668 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, 000. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat was Ksh. 2,861 a slight increase of 4.5 percent as compared to Ksh.2, 739 the previous month. The prices were above the long term average by 40. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 3,050 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,000. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average selling price for kilogram maize was Ksh.44 a marginal increase of 2.3 percent sa compared to the previous month of April. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 19; The prices were occasioned by increase in supply of relief food in the county reducing demand thus forcing traders to reduce the prices. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of May were at Ksh. 51 a slight decrease of 2 as compared to the previous month. The price has remained stable The price was below the long-term average by 16. This is attributed to market dynamics and the fact that households have alternative cereals to consider. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The price of beans reduced to Ksh.105 compared to Ksh.113 of the previous month; this was a reduction of 7. The current price is below long-term average by 8. The average prices were highest in pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.108 and lowest in the irrigated at Ksh. 90.High prices were because of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as purchasing of seeds by farmer thus increasing the demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade increased by 2.3 percent from 63.9 to 65.4 during the month of May. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 39 . This is attributed to increase in the livestock prices and decrease in maize prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 81.2 while Agro-Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 50. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption Fig .21 The average milk consumption per household remained stable at 1.6 litres comparable to the previous month. The amount was within the seasonal ranges as compared to the long-term average. Food Consumption Score Fig.22 There was no significant change in food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. Currently the proportion of households with acceptable food consumption score is at 78.9 percent compared to 76.3 percent of the previous month. This clearly indicates improved health status of households. This is attriubuted to the fact that food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on an improving trend. In addition, ongoing interventions from partners, relative market stability, milk availability, improved purchasing power and availability of traditional green vegetables are some of the contributing factors. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.23 In comparison to the previous month, the proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition decreased slightly by 10.5 percent to 16.3 from 18.21. The decrease was attributed to availability of milk at households and improved purchasing power within pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Ribko, Komolion and Saimo Soi wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 29.7, 25.8 and 23.8 respectively. 5.3.2 Health In the month of May, commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The average reduced coping strategy index increased by 6.3 percent from a score of 14.02 in April to 14.9 in May. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed high coping strategies at 20.8 followed by Pastoral at 16.1. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.9. The current trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 5.5 Implications to food Security Improved terms of trade imply that households within Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihoods zones have access to basic food commodities. Equally the County is likely to witness improved health conditions and less mortalities among under-five due to decreasing cases of malnutrition. Given the improving trends on production, access and utilization indicators, increasing number of households across all livelihood zones are likely to be more food secure in the coming months. Availability of pasture and browse at traditional grazing fields have minimised migrations to Agro- pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. This has further enhanced peace between the communities across all the livelihoods and major markets are now fully functional, external supply of goods and services are now stable and within the reach of the households. With full recharge of 80 of water sources, cases of water borne diseases are on the decline thereby minimising cases of admissions in local dispensaries. Distances to water sources for households and livestock have also reduced. Households can now spend more time attending to their daily activities. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Cash transfer registration and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC Registration of Beneficiary for Lishe Bora targeting 3000HH; server cases from BSF by WFPWVK Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Purchase of Assorted seedling worth 4.4M for Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine by GOKBCG Capacity building farmers on control of FAW across the county and purchase of pesticides worth 0.9M for the county by GOKBCG NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Provision of pasture seeds for reseeding to communities by BCGRPLRP Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Security incidences were reported along Tiaty Turkana border where a vehicle carrying students was ambushed. There were also retaliation in Marigat following the same. Tensions are high in areas of Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North Sub County. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.25 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of May. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Food prices are likely to be low and stable in the next 2-3 months. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure over the same period. Crop production is expected to be above average if the current destruction by floods does not escalate and if the expected destruction by fall army warm is contained. This will further improve the food security of households within the Mixed farming, Agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. However, some pocket of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, South Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to their chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement due to insecurity. This a group that will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought preparedness plans. 8.1.2 Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 8.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Carry out Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 8.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 8.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat (Blue tongue) All areas (FMD) b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio c) Include the restocking support by resilience project d) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 8.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Provision of farm inputs and technical backstopping by sub-County extension staff. b) Awareness creation on management and control of FAW. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environment Agricultural pastor indicators are within th seasonal ranges Meteorological droug indicators outsid seasonal ranges Environmental and at lea two production indicators a outside Long term season ranges Environmenta Metrological Production indicators ar outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2018 PLEASE ALIGN THE TABLES ACCORDINGLY THEY LOOK DISPLACED. Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Improving Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of March 2018. The March Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are below normal but improving towards normal. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5(70-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with 85 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. Livestock body condition is poor in Pastoral livelihood zones but fair in both Agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods. Milk production is below normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade is currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to current body condition and market dynamics. Distances to water sources for households are decreasing but still above normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 19.7, which is above normal but on a reducing trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 2 wards. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiaty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 159.00 29 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 27(17)30 39 (42) 35-50 of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.8 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards MARCH EW PHASE 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 159 mm was recorded in March coupled with low temperatures and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 29.00 mm. Temporal distribution was fair. The rainfall amount received were enough to cause positive impact on environmental indicators. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of March, 55 mm of rainfall were received in the 1st dekad, 87 mm were received in the second dekad and more rains expected in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were above normal at this time of the year. Generally, the MAM season rains were good in spatial distribution and early onset realized within the 3rd dekad of February compared to the previous season same time. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The March SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The March vegetation cover for Baringo county shows deteriorating trend due to lack of rainfall during the month of February but this has since changed with the onset of the long rains, high temperatures in some areas further aggravated the situation, VCI values for Baringo County continued to show negative trends across all the sub-counties but this has since changed with the onset of the long rains. All the sub-counties are currently below normal ranges but with the on-going long rains, the situation shows more improvements. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 26th March 2018 BARINGO County 27.31 Depleted vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county in the previous months but this has since improved with the onset of the Long rains. With the onset of MAM rains in 3rd decard of February, the VCI is expected to improve. Central 32.62 Eldama 20.20 Mogotio 17.34 North 25.96 South 30.79 Tiaty 29.94 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above reflects the 3 sub-countys currently experiencing high vegetation deficit, but the situation has since improved to normal. Fig.4.Source BOKU In March the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 27.39, which is below normal compared to the LTA. Compared to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. This trend has since changed towards normal with the onset of the long rains. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig.5 Pasture condition in the month of March was poor to fair in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods and fair to good in irrigated livelihood. The quality and quantity is fair as compared to the month of February due to the rains received in the month of March. The situation is normal on an improving trend. 2.1.3 Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones fair to good with a few pockets in the pastoral livelihood zone having poor browse condition especially in Ngoron area, while good in the irrigated livelihood zone. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock on an improving trend. The situation is better as compared to the previous month of February. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.8 The main water sources in the month of March for both domestic and livestock use were, pans and dams at 25, traditional river Wells at 22 and Rivers at 19. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is fair, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume has increased in most water pans to 60 to 80 of normal capacity as compared to the previous month. This is expected to last for about three-month in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 In the month of March the average trekking distance to water sources reduced by 23 at 4.8km as compared to 6.2 km in the month of February. The distance is below the long term average of 6 km by 20 this attributed recharge of water sources. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 5.7 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered the least distance at 3. 3 km. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of March decreased by 13 to 7.7 km from 8.8km in February; pastoral covered the longest distance of 8.4km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 3km. The distance is slightly below the long-term average by 4. The situation is attributed to degeneration of forage and recharge of watering points as a result of the rains received. 2.3 Implication to food security Decreasing grazing distances and improved forage conditions will impact positively on the Livestock body conditions and overall pastoralist purchasing power. Incidences of cattle rustling and armed conflict over resources are likely to decrease across livelihoods as there is minimal movement of livestock. Cases of water borne diseases are likely to reduce in the coming months as water quantity and quality continues to improve. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the reporting period, the Livestock body condition was Moderate. Neither fat nor thin score 3) in Agro- Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good Smooth appearance (score 5) in irrigated livelihood zones. The body condition has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month. The situation was as result of reduced pasture and water. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported however CCPP and PPR w ere are endemic in the County. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret Goats and Sheep. 58shoats , Saimo soi, Ribko Shoats 22 Shoats Heart water Saimo soi, sibilio, Tirioko Akoret Goats 90 Shoats Fig.1 3.1.3 Milk Production In March the average litres produced increased to 1.8 litres per household per day. This is attributed to high volumes of livestock at household levels across all livelihood zones and regeneration of browse and pasture. Fig. 13 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of March most farmers in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones are clearing their farms in preparation of the next planting season in either in the month April , while a few have planted in the irrigated livelihood Zone. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle increased by4 in the month of March from Ksh. 11,833 in February to Ksh. 12,345. The price is above the long-term average by 24. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.16, 333 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.11, 000. The prices were attributed to market dynamics. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat was Ksh.2, 358 in the month of March; this was a slight increase of 3 as compared to February at Ksh. 2,298 this was attributed to prevailing market dynamics. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,783 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 1,950. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in the month of March was at Ksh.52 a price that was above the long-term average at this time of the year by 15. The prices were highest in pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh.90 lowest in the irrigated at Ksh. 40. The prices were occasioned low stocks at household level following poor harvests and market dynamics as traders are getting maize from Trans Nzoia and west pokot counties.. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of March were at Ksh. 62 similar to the previous month. The price was above the long term average of time of the year by 19. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was to Ksh. 112 the price was relatively comparable to the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 5. The increase in prices was as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as purchasing of seeds by farmer thus increasing the demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade improved slightly from 43.2 in the month of February to 45.1 in the month of March. The current ToT is slightly above the long-term average by 3 . The increase was due to increase in the livestock prices. Ilchamus ward in Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 67 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 38. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.8 litres in the month of March. The amount was above the long term mean by 22 this was due the increase milk production at household level across all livelihoods. Fig 2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 Even though higher proportion of households within the county had acceptable food consumption score for the month of March while a lower proportion of households across all the livelihoods zones reported Borderline and Poor Food Consumption Score: more households have moved to acceptable comparing to the previous month where Agro pastoral, irrigated and Pastoral had 56.7,60 and 48.9 respectively; Currently they are 93.3,100 and 63.1 respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on an improving trend as compared to the previous month. This is due intervention from partners 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.23 During the month of March 19.7 of the assessed under-five children were at risk of malnutrition in the County; 19.6 and 20.7 male and females were at risk respectively. Kapenguria, Ribko and Kolloa wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 42.1, 32.7 and 26.8 respectively. The number of under-fives at risk was above LTA by 15 and has decrease by 5 as compared to the previous month. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period cases of diarrhoea, typhoid, HIV, Hepatitis B and malaria were reported in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 20.4 followed by Pastoral at 16.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 26 in the month of March. The trend is comparable to the previous month of February. This clearly shows that households within the Agro- Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are more food insecure. 5.5 Implications to food Security Improved terms of trade imply that households within Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihoods will have to spend less in accessing food. Equally the County is likely to witness improved health conditions and less mortalities among under-five due to decreasing cases of malnutrition. Given the improving trends on most indicators, increasing number of households are likely to be more food secure in the coming months. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa ,Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Creation of productive assets by households in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central by GOK, BCG On-farm irrigation systems -support for newly established irrigation schemes(purchase of seeds ,fertilizers and chemicals to support farmer groups in irrigation schemes) in Mogotio, Lembus Perkerra. Technical training on adaptable agronomic systems e,g poultry farming, bee keeping, cattle keeping , aloe vera and plolculture by in Koriema WFP NDMA. Lishe Bora supported in Tiaty East supported by WFPWVK. Water purification programme in East Pokot by UNICEF. Establishment of feed schools and Pasture establishments by RLRP through World Bank Provision of greenhouses to schools by BCG 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement During the month of March there were no major insecurity incidences reported in the county apart from few cases of cattle rustling reported in Baringo South- Kasiala village where 86 goats were stolen but recovered. Two people were hart during the incident. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret Shoats Akoret, Ribko Shoats Wild dogs Akoret, ngambo Calves Hyena Ribko Shoats Fig.25 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the reporting month apart from those that occurred in the previous month. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The County food security situation has remained unstable due to under-production in the previous season and the fact that the county has been on a dry period since January to end of February but this situation is likely to change for the better with the onset of the long rains. The on-going long rains will minimise challenges in accessing pasture and water and likely improve livestock productivity influenced by good forage quality and quantities. On the overall food prices are likely to decrease in the next few months resulting in improved food accessibility and dietary diversity, high nutrient value food intake coupled with increasing meal frequency at household level. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure if the long rains continue to perform well. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought preparedness activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral response plans and scenario building need to be updated. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene. 8.1.2 Water Sector 1. Fuel Subsidy Electricity subsidy 2. Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision. 4. Provision of water treatment chemicals. 5. Capacity building of water management teams on WASH. 6. Water trucking in areas with water stress including institutions. 8.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Provisional of water treatment chemicals 8.1.4 .Education a) Supply of SMP to 446 schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Provision of safe guard water purifiers in Mukutani, Marigat ,ilchamus wards, c) Establishment of community SMP in 94 schools in Tenges, Salawa and Sacho wards d) Promoting Agro-forestry programmes in all secondary schools. e) Provision of water tanks to needy schools. 8.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes in areas with pasture stress b) Disease control(vaccinations against FMD,LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat(Blue tongue) All areas(FMD) c) Provision of pasture seeds Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. d) Support general livestock diseases surveillance. e) Restocking. 8.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Capacity building on FAW scouting, control and strategic placement of chemicals. b) Water harvesting for household food security farm ponds and equipping of existing ones. c) Provision of farm inputs. d) Provision of post harvesting materials (bags and silos) to 1000 beneficiaries. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators ar outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agriculturaldrought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agriculturaldrought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators ( VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2018 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of June 2018. The June Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and improving. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5(70-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to improved livestock body conditions and decreasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are decreasing and within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 14.9, which is below normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 2 wards. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 68.00 126 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 92(97)98 38(35) 39 35-50 Of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December 2017) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA (400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data : fig .1.source:ARV An average of 68 mm rainfall was recorded in June coupled with low temperatures and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 126.00 mm. temporal distribution was good. 1.2 .AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of June, 83 mm of rainfall were received in the 1st dekad, 38 mm were received in the second dekad and 54 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were above normal at this time of the year. Generally, the MAM season rains were good in spatial distribution and early onset realized within the 3rd dekad of February compared to the previous season same time. The rainfall was evenly distributed across all the sub-counties. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The June SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The June vegetation cover for Baringo County shows improving trend across all livelihood zones. This situation is expected to improve further with the ongoing long rains. VCI for all the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges. County VCI as at 30th June BARIN County Improved vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. This might change with the performance of the rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.2. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, more improvement still expected with on-going rains. Fig.3.Source BOKU In June the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 82, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the current long rains. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig.4. The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones, during the month of June as attributed to good rainfall. The current conditions are above normal for this time during a normal year. The pasture is expected to last for more than three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and four months in the irrigated livelihood zones. There were no major variations across the livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.5. The browse condition continued to improve in all livelihood zones as the quantity and quality was good in all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal seasonal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river Wells and pans and dams Most open water sources were recharged to 90 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for more than five months in irrigated farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for four months. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8. The average trekking distance in the month remained stable from 3.1km to 3.0 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least distance of 1.7 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 3.6 km. The current distance was below the long term average by 14. The reduction in trekking distance is due to ongoing rains thus most household access water near their homesteads. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9. The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced by 7 during the month, from 5.8 km to 5.4 km; the distance was below the long term average by 12. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 5.7km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 4 The situation is attributed to regeneration of forage and recharge of watering points as a result of the rains received. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was Good Smooth appearance (score 6) in Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score 7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of increased pasture and water due to on-going rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day remained stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was marginally above by 6; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones as a result of enough forage. Fig. 10. RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of June the crops planted in the county are maize, beans and sorghum. The maize in irrigated and agro pastoral Zones are at harvesting stage. However most of the crop was affected by the Fall army warm and water logging. The anticipated yields may be below the long term average. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle increased by 8 percent to Ksh. 17,000 in the reporting month as compared to Ksh.15, 730the previous month. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 67. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.19, 500 while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,333. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat was Ksh. 2,821 relatively stable as compared to the previous month Ksh. 2,861. The prices were above the long term average by 27. The average Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,917 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,400. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.40 during the month, which was a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 27. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.65 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh. 35 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh. 47 a slight decrease of 8 as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 24. This is attributed to the households utilising the maturing onfarm crop as opposed to purchases from shops. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 The average price for a kilogram of beans was relatively stable as compared to the previous month. The price was slightly below the long-term mean; average prices were highest in pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.117 and lowest in the irrigated at Ksh.90. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as households await onfam harvests. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig. 16. The Terms of trade improved slightly by 6.7 percent from 65.4 to 69.8 during the month. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 32 . The increase was due to increase in the livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 81 while Agro-Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 55. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household was at 1.7 litres, which was comparable to the previous month. The amount was within the seasonal ranges as compared to the long term mean. Fig.17. Food Consumption Score Fig.18 There was no significant change in food consumption gaps in across livelihoods as no household had poor food consumption. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 and 31.7 in pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods have acceptable food consumption score. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on an improving trend. This is due interventions from partners, relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.19. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition decreased by 8.5 percent to 14.9 from 16.3 in May in June. The improvement is attributed to availability of milk at households and improved purchasing power. Komolion, Ribko and Saimo Soi wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 32.8, 27 and 23.1 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.20 The average coping strategy index decreased from 14.9 in May to 13.9 in June. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 21.3 followed by Pastoral at 14.4. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2. The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Cash transfer registration and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC. Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Purchase of Assorted seedlings worth 4.4M for Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine by GOKBCG Capacity building farmers on control of FAW across the county and purchase of pesticides worth 0.9M for the county by GOKBCG Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by BCG. NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Provision of pasture seeds for reseeding to communities by BCGRPLRP Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. Training of communities on DRR by NDMAPARTNERS. Relocation of Eldume IDPs supported by NDMA and Partners at the cost of Kshs 4.0M. 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0. Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No Security incidences were reported during the month. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.21 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of June. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Food prices are likely to be low and stable in the next 2-3 months. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure over the same period. Crop production is expected to be above average as destruction by floods and fall army warm remains minimal. This will further improve the food security of households within the Mixed farming, Agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. However, some pocket of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, South Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to their chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement and insecurity. This a group that will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought contingency plans. 7.1.2 Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 7.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat (Blue tongue) All areas (FMD) b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Awareness creation on management and control of FAW. b) Pre and Post harvest trainings. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environment Agricultural and pastor indicators are within th seasonal ranges Meteorological drough indicators outsid seasonal ranges Environmental and at lea two production indicato outside seasonal ranges Environmenta Metrological Production indicators ar outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2018 JULY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Improving Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of July 2018. The July Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but expected to change with the onset of the dry period. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5 (70-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to improved livestock body conditions and decreasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are decreasing and within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 12.9, which is below normal. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 2 wards. PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 41.00 174 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 95(102)103 54 (55) 52 35-50 Of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1.source:ARV An average of 41 mm rainfall was recorded in July coupled with increasing temperatures and hot weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 174.00 mm. temporal distribution was good. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of July, 34 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 34 mm received in the second dekad and 20 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were above normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was evenly distributed across all the sub-counties. 1.2.0.LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The July land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County are still below normal at 280 C but this is expected to increase with the onset of the dry period. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The July vegetation cover for Baringo County shows improving trend across all livelihood zones, this situation is expected to remain stable given the prevailing weather conditions. VCI for all the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 31st July 2018 BARINGO County Improved vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. This might change with the performance of the rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, more improvement still expected with on-going rains. Fig.4.Source BOKU In July the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 95, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the current long rains. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 5 The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality livelihood zones across the county during the month of June this due the high amounts of rainfall received. The current conditions are above the level normally witnessed at such a time during a normal year The pasture is expected to last for more than three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and four months in the irrigated livelihood zones. There were no major variations across the livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.6 The browse condition continued to improve in all livelihood zones as the quantity and quality was good in all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river Wells and pans and dams. Most open water sources were recharged to 90 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for more than five months in irrigated farming and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for four months. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The households trekking distance remain stable in the month from 3.0 km to 3.3 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least distance of 1.7 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4 km. The current distance was relative to the Long term average. The reduction in trekking distance is due to ongoing rains thus most household access water near their homesteads. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9 The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced by 5.5 during the month, from 5.4 km to 5.1 km. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 6km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 3.5 km. The situation is attributed to regeneration of forage and recharge of watering points as a result of the rains received. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was Good Smooth appearance (score 6) in Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score 7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of increased pasture and water due to on-going rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day remained stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was marginally above by 3; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones as a result of enough forage. Fig. 10 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of July the crops planted in the county are maize, beans and sorghum. The maize in irrigated and agro pastoral Zones are at Grain filling stage. However most of the crop was affected by the Fall army warm and water logging. The anticipated yields may be below the long term average. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle increased by 4 percent in the reporting month as compared to the previous month from Ksh.17,000 to Ksh. 17,650. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 58. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.20,000 while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,500. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat was Ksh.2, 972 and increase of 5 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,821. The prices were above the long term average by 32. The average Goat prices were highest in Tiaty at Ksh. 3,003 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,800. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.42 during the month, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 12.5. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.65 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh. 35 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh. 47 similar to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 20. This is attributed to maturing of the on farm crops with most households accessing green maize in that has demand posho forcing a drop in prices. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 The average price for a kilogram of beans reduced as compared to the previous month by 9 from Ksh. 108 to Ksh.98 in the reporting month. The price was slightly below the long-term mean by 10; average prices. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as purchasing of seeds by farmer thus increasing the demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .19 The terms of trade improved from 69.8 to 70.1 during the month. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 50. The increase was due to increase in the livestock prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 82.1 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 65.5. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household stabilized at 1.7 litres. The amount was within the seasonal ranges as compared to the long-term mean. Fig. 20 Food Consumption Score Fig.21 There was no significant change in food consumption gaps in across livelihoods. Households with poor food consumption were 22.1 and 17.7 in pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The proportions of households with borderline FC were 23.3 and 31.7 in pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively; generally 84 of the households across the livelihoods have acceptable FC. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on an improving trend. This is due increased maturing of on-farm crops relative stability in local markets, milk availability and access to of traditional green vegetables. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.22 The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition decreased by 13.4 from 14.9 in June to 12.9 in July. The improvement was attributed to availability of milk at households. Komolion, Ribko and Saimo Soi wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 40, 30 and 23.1 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria in all livelihood Zones. Chicken pox in Napur and Kamurio. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.23 The average coping strategy index decreased from 13.9 in June to 13.15 in July. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.2 followed by Pastoral at 14.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2. The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Cash transfer registration and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC. Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Purchase of Assorted seedlings worth 4.4M for Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine by GOKBCG Capacity building farmers on control of FAW across the county and purchase of pesticides worth 0.9M for the county by GOKBCG Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by BCG. NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Provision of pasture seeds for reseeding to communities by BCGRPLRP Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. Training of communities on DRR by NDMAPARTNERS. Relocation of Eldume IDPs supported by NDMA and Partners at the cost of Kshs 4.0M. Asset Creation Programme County Transition Engagement Meetings with the County Government and common work planning meetings by WFPNDMAWVK Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani (Lendorok) Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4 Million by 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No Security incidences were reported during the month. Tensions are high in areas of Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North Sub County. Locust Rift Valley Fever Blue tongue dse The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of July. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Given the good rainfall cross livelihoods resulting into good crop performance, enhanced pasture and forage productivity and consequently good livestock body condition and production all this factor are likely to impact positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to be low and stable in the next 2-3 months However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to flooding and chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement and insecurity. This a group that will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought contingency plans. 7.1.2. Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 7.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat (Blue tongue) All areas (FMD) b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Awareness creation on management and control of FAW. b) Pre and Post harvest trainings. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environment Agricultural pastor indicators are within th seasonal ranges Meteorological droug indicators outsid seasonal ranges Environmental and at lea two production indicators a outside Long term season ranges Environmenta Metrological Production indicators ar outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2018 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Worsening Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show negative fluctuations below the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of January 2018. The January Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are still above normal ranges but on deteriorating trend. The Water level in water pans are below normal at 4(70-35) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and on a deteriorating trend. The situation remains unstable with 75 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones with 25 still at their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in Pastoral livelihood zones but fair in both Agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihoods. Milk production is below normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade is currently above normal range but on a worsening trend in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to current body condition and market dynamics. Distances to water sources for households are increasing and currently above normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 18, which is above normal indicating worsening trend. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT STABLE PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiatty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 17 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 52(42)55 57 (54) 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(35-75) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households- trekking distance(km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by December) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA(400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards JANUARY EW PHASE 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 An average rainfall of 3 mm was recorded in January coupled with high temperatures and hot weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 17.00 mm. Temporal distribution was poor. The rainfall amount received were not enough to cause any positive impact on environmental indicators. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of January, 2.5mm of rainfall were received in the 1st decad, 2.6mm were received in the 2nd decad and there were no rains received in the 3rd decad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. Generally, the OND season rains were continuous in spatial distribution and early cessation realized within the 2nd decad of December. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The January SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be below normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The January vegetation cover for Baringo county shows deteriorating trend due to lack of rainfall during the month as high temperatures further aggravated the situation. VCI values for Baringo County continue to show negative trends across all the sub-counties. Pastoral livelihood being worst hit with most areas reporting depleted vegetation covers. All the sub-counties are currently above slightly normal ranges but expected to worsen as reflected in Fig.3. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th January 2018 BARINGO County 52.39 Normal but worsening vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. With the cessation of OND rains in mid-December, the VCI is expected to deteriorate. Central 60.29 Eldama 49.22 Mogotio North 49.14 South 56.04 Tiaty 54.57 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above indicates 3 sub-countys currently experiencing high vegetation deficit clearly indicating the county will be experiencing moderate drought in the coming months. Fig.4.Source BOKU In January the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 52.39, which is above normal compared to the LTA. Compared to the previous month the current vegetation cover have reduced in quantity and quality. This trend is expected to deteriorate with the onset of the dry spell. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig.5 Pasture conditions in the month of January was fair to poor in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods and good to fair to good in irrigated livelihood. The quality and quantity has started to deteriorate as compared to the previous month due to high temperatures. 2.1.3 Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are fair to poor while good in the irrigated livelihood zone. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock but on a worsening trend. The situation is fairly comparable to the month of December. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.8 The main sources of water for both domestic and livestock use were rivers at 25, pans and dams at 22 and Traditional River Wells at 13.Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is fair, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume has decreased in most water pans as compared to the previous month it is 50 to 75 of normal capacity. This is expected to last for about one to two months in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 Average trekking distance to water sources was 5.3 km in the month of January as compared to 2.8 km in the month December; that is above the long term average of 3.1km. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 6.7 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered that 3 km. The distance is above the long term average by 71. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of January increased 80 to 8.5km from 4.7km in December; pastoral covered the longest distance of 9.8km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 5.3 km. The distance is above the long- term average by 52. The situation is attributed to deteriorating forage. 2.3 Implication to food security Livestock body conditions are likely to deteriorate thus poor purchasing power Outbreak of water borne diseases reported in livelihoods that are currently experiencing water stress. Insecurity reported in Agro-Pastoral livelihoods due to resource based conflicts. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the month of January; Livestock body condition was moderate neither thin nor fat (score 5) for cattle in both pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Good Smooth appearance (score6) in irrigated livelihood zones. The body condition has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month. The situation was as result of reduced pasture and water. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases reported however CCPP, PPR, and ECF were reported in the County. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 70 shoats Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, shoats 5 shoats Ribko, Kolloa,Saimo soi, Mukutani, Cattle 5 cattle Diarrhoea Tangulbei, Kolloa, Sheep Heart water Saimo soi shoats 40 shoats RED WATER Tirioko, Akoret cattle Fig.1 3.1.3 Milk Production Average milk production per household in January was 1.9 litres; the amount was similar to the long term average. Fig. 13 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops There are no crops in the farms as farmers have started clearing the farms for the coming planting season 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle decreased by 13 in the month of January to Ksh. 12,291 as compared to the month of December at Ksh. 14,188. The price was below the long term average by 13. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.15, 750 while the Irrigated livelihood zone had the least average prices of Ksh.9,45. The prices were attributed to declining livestock body conditions. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat decreased by 9 in the month of January from Ksh. 2,709 in the month of December to Ksh.2,461. The prices were below the long term by 16; this was attributed to market dynamics. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,604 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,875. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in the month of January was at Ksh.52.The price was however above the long- term average of Ksh. 43 at this time of the year by 17. The prices were occasioned by dynamics in the local markets and low supply injection from local households. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.18 A Posho price in the month of January was at Ksh. 55 similar to the previous month. This was above the Long-term average of time of the year by 17. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was to Ksh. 106 in January as compared to Ksh. 120 in the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 9. The decrease in prices was as a result of supply of the commodity from the neighbouring counties. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade decreased from 59.2 in the month of December to 48.1 in January. The current ToT is slightly below the long-term average by 4. The drop was due to decrease in the livestock prices. Ilchamus ward in Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 87 while Kapenguria ward in Pastoral had the lowest at 31.8. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption Fig 2 On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.7 litres in the month of January similar to the previous month. The amount was slightly above the Long Term Average. The situation is due to availability of milk at Household. Food Consumption Score Fig.22 Higher proportion of households within the county had acceptable food consumption score for the month of January while a lower proportion of households across all the livelihoods zones reported Borderline and Poor Food Consumption Score. This might be attributed to on-going cash for asset programme supported by National Government. This has in return improved the purchasing power of households across all the livelihood zones Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. This is due declining households food stocks and unfavourable market conditions. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.23 During the month of January 17.6 of the assessed under-five children were at risk of malnutrition in the County; 17.28 and 18.66 male and females were at risk respectively. The SAM and MAM were 0.7 and 2.3 respectively thus having a GAM of 3.1. 5.3.1 Nutrition Status The prevalence of global acute malnutrition is 3.1 in the nine sentinel sites, The moderate malnutrition levels in Baringo is below long term average Kolloa, Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 25, 26 and 30 respectively. The number of under-fives at risk was above LTA by 10 and has increase as compared to the previous month. 5.3.2 Health There high cases of diahorrea and skin diseases reported in all pastoral livelihood Zones. Malaria and fever cases were reported in Agro Pastoral and irrigated livelihood Zones. No Major outbreaks reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.4 followed by Agro-Pastoral at 15.3. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.8 in the month of January. The current CSI is worse compared to the month of December 2017 This is attributed to harsh climatical conditions and increasing food prices which are beyond households purchasing power. The trend is worsening as compared to December. 5.5 Implications to food Security Poor health conditions and mortalities among under-five due to high cases of malnutrition due to water borne disease High coping strategies may be employed by the communities Lack of food at household level. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa ,Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Technical training on adaptable agronomic systems e,g poultry farming, bee keeping, cattle keeping , aloe vera and plolculture by in koriema WFP NDMA Rehabilitation of boreholes in Tiaty by ACTED. 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret shoats Akoret, Ribko shoats Wild dogs Akoret Calves Hyena Ribko shoats Fig.25 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has been no migration reported in all the wards. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The County food security situation remains unstable due to agricultural under-production, high food prices and lower households purchasing power. With the onset of the dry season, water access and pasture will deteriorate leading to reduction in livestock productivity hence high malnutrition rates among under 5. The forage condition remains fair to good but likely to deteriorate across all livelihood zones with the onset of the dry spell. If the current conditions change for the worse, food prices are likely to maintain an increasing trend resulting in reduced food accessibility and unacceptable dietary diversity. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food insecure 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral preparedness plans need to be activated as need arises. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene 7.1.2 Water Sector a) Provision of PVC tanks of 10,000lts capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres b) Community sensitization on WASH issues. c) Repairs and rehabilitation of broken down water systems across County. d) Construction of farm ponds at households e) Provision of water treatment chemicals f) Repair of water bowzers and servicing of emergency response team vehicle. 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Catch-up campaign on immunization 7.1.4 .Education a) Expansion of regular feeding programme to all schools in the drought hotspots. b) Support to strategic roof water harvesting in institutions. c) Supply of water to schools with water stress. 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Promotion of Destocking by households b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation in areas with good rains c) Livestock vaccination (Blue Tounge, FMD, LSD) and disease surveillance given increased changing weather conditions in the County. d) Prepositioning of assorted livestock supplementary feeds. e) Pasture seed provision. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Postharvest management capacity building to minimise crop harvest loses. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators ar outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside norma ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agriculturaldrought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agriculturaldrought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators ( VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signalled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2018 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alert-Worsening Biophysical Indicators The biophysical indicators show negative fluctuations below the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of February 2018. The February Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are strongly below normal ranges in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihoods. Indicating moderate drought for the County. The Water levels in water pans is below normal at 3 (50-15) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity and on a deteriorating trend. The situation remains unstable with 90 of the Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones and 10 still at their traditional grazing grounds. Livestock body condition is poor in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones but fair in irrigated livelihoods. Milk production is below normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones. Crop production for the season is below average. Access indicators Terms of trade is currently below normal range but on a worsening trend in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to current body condition and market dynamics. Distances to water sources for households are on increasing trend and currently above normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 21, which is above normal indicating worsening trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 7 wards. Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo(Mogotio)Tiaty Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 14 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 33(22)34 50 (55) 35-50 of water in the water pan 3(50-15) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Not Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance(km) Crops production(90kg bags) for the season ()(by December) 610(maize) 4,124(bean) LTA (9,450) LTA(10,607) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 5 wards reported 0-2 wards FEBRUARY EW PHASE 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 Average rainfall of 0.7 mm was recorded in February coupled with high temperatures and hot weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 14.00 mm. Temporal distribution was very poor. The rainfall amount received was not sufficient to cause any positive impact on environmental indicators. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of February, an average of 1.0 mm of rainfall were received in the 1st dekad, 1.3 mm were received in the second dekad and there were no rains received in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The February SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be strongly below normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The February vegetation cover for Baringo county shows worsening trend due to lack of rainfall during the month, high temperatures further aggravated the situation, VCI values for Baringo County continued to show negative trends across all the sub-counties. Pastoral livelihood being worst hit with most areas reporting depleted vegetation cover. Five sub-counties are currently experiencing moderate drought as reflected in Fig.3 below. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 26th February 2018 BARINGO County 33.10 Alert vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. With the on-going drought, the VCI is expected to worsen. Central 42.48 Eldama 31.84 Mogotio 21.52 North 30.62 South 36.98 Tiaty 34.59 Fig.3 Source BOKU The information provided above reflects the 5 sub-countys (Eldama-Ravin, Mogotio, Baringo North and Tiaty) currently experiencing moderate drought and action need to be taken by all stakeholders to mitigate the current effect of drought. Fig.4.Source BOKU In February the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 33.10, which is below normal compared to the LTA. Compared to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Baringo County is currently experiencing moderate drought. This trend is expected to worsen if the onset of the long rains delays. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig.5 Pasture condition in the month of February was poor in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods and fair to poor and few pockets good in irrigated livelihood. The quality and quantity is poor as compared to the month of January due to high temperatures being experienced. The situation is normal but with a deteriorating trend. 2.1.3 Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones fair to poor, while good to fair in the irrigated livelihood zone. The situation is normal for the county. The browse is palatable and quantity is good for livestock but on deteriorating. The situation has worsened as compared to the month of January. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.8 The main water sources in the month of February for both domestic and livestock use were, pans and dams and traditional river Wells at 26 and Rivers and boreholes at 16. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is fair, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume has decreased in most water pans to 30 to 40 of normal capacity as compared to the previous month. This is expected to last for about one month in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.9 In the reporting month the average trekking distance to water sources increased by 17 at 6.2km as compared to 5.3 km in the month of January. The distance is slightly above the long term average of 6 km by 3 this attributed to drying up of some open water sources due to high evaporation rates. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 8 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered the least distance at 3. 3 km. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of February increased slightly by 4 to 8.8 km from 8.5km in January; pastoral covered the longest distance of 9.9km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 6km. The distance is above the long-term average by 21. The situation is attributed to deteriorating forage and diminishing watering points. 2.3 Implication to food security Increasing grazing distances, declining water quality and quantity, increased livestock movements incidences and general poor rainfall are a combination of factors that will likely have a negative impact on the overall household food security. Equally the likelihood of cattle rustling and armed conflict over pasture and water resources across livelihoods. Learning institutions and health facilities will experience stress arising from water scarcity and upsurge in waterborne diseases incidences in the coming months. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the reporting period, the Livestock body condition was borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible (score 4) for cattle in pastoral livelihood zone. Moderate. Neither fat nor thin score 5) in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and Good Smooth appearance (score 6) in irrigated livelihood zones. The body condition has deteriorated as compared to the previous month. The situation was as result of reduced pasture and water. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported. Important to note however is the fact that CCPP, PPR, and ECF are endemic in the County. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolowa, Ngoron, Silale, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret Goats and Sheep. 58shoats , Saimo soi, Ribko Shoats 22 Shoats Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Cattle 5 cattle Heart water Saimo soi, Sibilo, Tirioko Akoret Goats 90 Shoats Fig.1 3.1.3 Milk Production In February the average number of litres produced was 1.1ltrs as compared to 1.9 litres produced in January. This was attributed to scarcity of water and pasture and livestock migrations to dry seasons grazing grounds in search of pasture and water. Fig. 13 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of February most farmers in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones were clearing their farms in preparation of the long rains planting season. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle decreased by 3 in the month of February from Ksh. 12,291 in January to Ksh. 11,833. The price is above the long-term average by 9. Irrigated livelihood zone registered the highest average prices of Ksh.13, 168 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.10, 500. The prices were attributed to declining livestock body conditions as a result of poor quality and quantity pasture. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price of a goat was Ksh.2, 298 in the month of February; this was a decrease of 7 as compared to January at Ksh. 2,461 this was attributed to prevailing market dynamics and deteriorating body conditions. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,833 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,125. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in the month of January was at Ksh.53 a price that was above the long-term average at this time of the year by 15. The prices were highest in pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh. 75 lowest in the irrigated at Ksh. 40. The prices were occasioned low stocks at household level following poor harvests and market dynamics as traders are getting maize from Trans Nzoia and west pokot counties. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of February were at Ksh. 58 higher by 7 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 58. The price was above the long term average of time of the year by 19. This is attributed to market dynamics and general scarcity of maize for milling in the County. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was to Ksh. 111 in February as compared to Ksh. 106 in the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 6. The increase in prices was as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as purchasing of seeds by farmer thus increasing the demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade decreased from 48.1 in the month of January to 43.2 in February. The current ToT is slightly below the long-term average by 6. The drop was due to decrease in the livestock prices. Ilchamus ward in Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 59 while Kapenguria ward in Pastoral had the lowest at 41. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.1 litres in the month of February. The current consumption is below the long term average and a decrease compared to the month of January. This is attributed to reduction in milk production during the month. Fig 2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 A higher proportion of households within the county had acceptable food consumption score for the month of February with a lower proportion of households across all the livelihoods zones reporting a Borderline and Poor Food Consumption Score. More households have moved to borderline comparing to the previous month where Agro pastoral, irrigated and Pastoral had 23.3, 33.3 and 15.6 respectively; currently they are 26.7,36.7 and33.9 respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. This is due declining households food stocks and unfavourable market conditions. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.23 During the month of February 20.7 of the assessed under-five children were at risk of malnutrition in the County; 21 and 21.1 male and females were at risk respectively 5.3.1 Nutrition Status The prevalence of global acute malnutrition is 1 in the nine sentinel sites, The moderate malnutrition levels in Baringo is below long term average Ribko, Komolion Saimo Soi wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 32.8, 30.9 and 27.3 respectively. The number of under-fives at risk was above LTA by 18 and has increased as compared to the previous month. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period cases of diarrhoea and skin diseases reported in all pastoral livelihood Zones. Malaria and fever cases were reported in Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and irrigated livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.4 followed by Pastoral at 17.1. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2 in the month of February. The trend is comparable to January. 5.5 Implications to food Security Decreasing livestock prices coupled with increasing cereal legume prices imply that households will have to spend more in accessing food. Equally the County is likely to witness increasing poor health conditions, heightened malnutrition and mortalities among under-five due to high cases of malnutrition due and poor dietary diversity. Given the prevailing trend a high number of households are likely to falloff the food secure bracket in the coming months. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Creation of productive assets by households in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central by GOK, BCG On farm- irrigation systems -support for newly established irrigation schemes (purchase of seeds, fertilizers and chemicals to support farmer groups in irrigation schemes) in Mogotio, Lembus Perkerra Technical training on adaptable agronomic systems e, g poultry farming, bee keeping, cattle keeping, aloe vera and plolculture by in Koriema WFP NDMA. 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Blanket supplement feeding by WVK in East Pokot for under-fives and lactating mothers. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity cases were reported along the Kerio River, Kapnai Cheptuimot Ptirik, Kagir and Kapedo due to water and pasture. Tension is high in this area as people continue moving in search of pasture and water, The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret Shoats Akoret, Ribko Shoats Wild dogs Akoret, Ngambo Calves Hyena Ribko Shoats Fig.25 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There has out migrations reported in the following areas: - Nyimbei and Chebinyiny to Mochongoi, Marigat to Arabal, Sibilo and Yatya to Bartum, Barwessa towards Kerio River, Yatya, Bartum, Barwessa towards Kerio River, Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum, Kamar and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. Sinende, to Mochongoi in Baringo South, Silale- Paka hills-Akwichatis tis-Nabukuti-Nadome. Chesirimion-Orus-Chepkalacha to Mukutani 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS February to April: The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal) if the onset of the long rains are timely. However, the agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zones are likely to worsen or shift their scope (stressed), meaning more people and livestock affected, and in Stressed and crisis respectively. Nutrition status is likely to worsen with most households consuming less than 1-2 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to increase. Markets disruptions are likely to be experienced due in-migration of livestock from neighboring counties leading to resource based conflicts. Food deficit in the county is likely to be met by imports by traders, and this is likely to push prices of maize and other basic commodities up 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of drought recovery activities by all actors is needed. ii) Sectoral response plans and scenario building need to be activated. iii) Provision of water treatment chemicals and community awareness creation on sanitation and hygiene. iv) Water trucking to affected schools and institutions. v) Repair and equipping of critical water facilities. 8.1.2 Water Sector 1. Fuel Subsidy Electricity subsidy 2. Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units and provision of water storage facilities. 3. Roof Water harvesting structures 4. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 8.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Intensify Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Provisional of water treatment chemicals e) Rapid food security Assessment 8.1.4. Education a) Supply of SMP to affected schools. b) Provision of water and safe guard water purifiers to affected schools. c) Feeding of ECD 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties. d) Enhance deworming in schools. 8.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Emergency Livestock off-take among 1500HH in Baringo North, Tiaty Baringo South and Mogotio b) Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes for 20,000 cattle in Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty c) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat (Blue tongue) All areas (FMD) d) Provision of pasture seeds Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio e) Promotion of Voluntary and commercial Livestock off-take f) Provision of pasture seeds g) Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio 8.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Inputs provision including capacity building b) Enhance asset creation programmes for households c) Nutrition and Food Utilization d) Provision of fruit tree seedlings e) Soil fertility Management REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators ar outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2018 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of December 2018. The December Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 4 (30-60). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good to fair in both quality and quantity but expected to worsen with the onset of the dry spell. Minimal migrations reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and most households can still afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges. Pastoral livelihood zones mostly affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 10.7, a decrease compared to last month. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges but on a worsening trend. PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45.00 94 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 4(30-60) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 10.7 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: Fig .1.source: ARV An average of 45 mm rainfall was recorded in December coupled with increasing temperatures. This is below the LTA of 94.00 mm. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of December, 32 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 37.2 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 42 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was unevenly distributed across all the sub- counties. Fig.2. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The December land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County have remained stable at 350 C, which is slightly below normal (360). This is expected to increase with the ongoing short rains. Fig.3.source: LST-C6 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The December vegetation cover for Baringo County shows below average trend across 2 sub- counties(Tiaty and Baringo North) all livelihood zones. The current trend has reduced compared to the month of December. COUNTY County VCI as at 31st December 2018 VCI as at 31st November 2018 BARINGO County 49.81 59.18 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county reducing trend compared to last month. Baringo North and Tiaty currently indicating depleting vegetation cover. Central 64.27 69.93 Eldama 61.64 65.52 Mogotio 53.77 63.71 North 47.04 57.49 South 51.60 60.71 Tiaty 44.31 54.97 Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects 2 sub-countys currently experiencing below normal vegetation cover, declining trend is observed across all the sub-counties. Fig.5.Source BOKU In December the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 49, which is normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the onset of the dry spell. Fig.6.Source: NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Baringo County is currently showing an improving trend in December 2018(0.53) compared to the month of November (0.48). This is above LTA of (0.5).This is attributed to the impact of short rains received in the month of November to December in all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 5 The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones in the county. The current conditions are normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and two months in the irrigated livelihood zones. The pasture was poor mainly in some areas in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.6 The browse condition is good to fair in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately two months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and five months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were pans and dams, Rivers and traditional River Wells. Most water pans and dams were at 35 to 70 of their full capacity. Most households are currently using pans, dams and rivers Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good to fair, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for two months in irrigated farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for one month due to high temperatures being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The households trekking distance decreased in the month from 5.6 km to 5.4 km. Irrigated cropping and Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the least average distance of 2.6 km while agro-pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 3.0 km. The current distance is above the Long-term average. The decrease in trekking distance is attributed to recharge of water levels in most of water sources. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9 The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points decreased to 7.4 km during the month. The agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones covered the longest average distance of 3.9 km while mixed farming covered the shortest average distance of 2.0 km. The situation is attributed to light showers received during the month across all livelihood zones. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good to fair across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was neither fat nor thinin Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good smooth appearance in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of availability of pasture and water as an impact of the long rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 2.0 litres, which was stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the current amount is higher; this was attributed to fair to good pasture and browse across most livelihood zones. Fig. 10 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers are weeding their crops which are at knee level. The conditions of crops are not good due to below average water resource index. Some farmers within Baringo north have not planted this season in fear of in-adequate rains to support production. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle decreased by 11 to Ksh.14, 450 in the reporting month as compared to Ksh.16, 257 to the previous month. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 9. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.19, 131 while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16, 453. The prices were attributed to the good livestock body condition across livelihoods and market dynamics. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat decreased to Ksh.2, 768 as compared to previous month. The average Goat prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,123. The prices were above the long-term average by 6 . 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.36 during the month, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 22. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.25 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh.42 relatively comparable to the previous month at Ksh.41. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 19. This reduction is attributed to recent seasonal harvests indication the product is plenty in the market therefore pushing down the price. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 The price per kilogram for beans increased to Ksh.107 compared to Ksh.105 of the previous month. The current price is above the long term average by 2. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .19 The terms of trade reduced from 87.1 in October to 79.3 during the month of December. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 39. The favourable terms of trade were due to decrease in the livestock prices due to high supply of livestock in the market (most farmers are selling their livestock in readiness for the festive season) and increase in food prices. Mixed Farming livelihood zone had the highest at 137 while Irrigated livelihood Zone had the lowest at 100. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was stable at 1.7 litres compared to the previous month at 1.7 litres. The amount consumed is normal at this time of the year. Fig. 20 Food Consumption Score Fig.20. There was small proportion of households with poor food consumption gap in Pastoral livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 22 and 6.7 in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 17 and 83 of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to previous seasonal harvests by local farmers and favourable climatic conditions to support production. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.21. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition worsened to 10.7 as compared to the previous month at 9.0. The reduction is attributed to decrease of milk production at households and the fact that most of the households purchasing power have reduced. Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 28 and 33 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and skin diseases in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The average coping strategy index increased to 13.5 in December compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19.2 followed by Pastoral at 14.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.2. The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and decreasing purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Participatory community action planning for Sustainable food system programme by WFP, Baringo County Government, NDMA and World Vision in 8 wards, Baseline survey for Silale Area Development programme establishment by World Vision, Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by Baringo County Government at six sub counties, Routine clinical treatment of normal livestock diseases by the livestock sector extension staff, Capacity building through pastoral field schools in six Field Schools supported by Regional Pastoral Livelihood resilience project and Baringo County Government, Inter-county cluster meeting (Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia and Samburu) to discuss realignment of participatory disaster risk assessment report for joint resource mobilization on resilience building initiatives. Routine medical outreaches by KRCS Construction of shelter for flood victims in Baringo South Food Aid Distribution of relief food to Eldume IDP returnees of Mukutani by NG and BCG Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major reported livestock thefts. Cases of livestock theft reported in Ngoron and Kapedo where 2 deaths were reported in Kapedo. This has since caused tension between the Pokot and the Turkanas who are planning to attack each other. Two people killed in Yatya and 22 livestock stolen in Ngaratuko area of Baringo North. There were human wildlife conflicts where livestock were killed as highlighted in the table below; Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been minimal intra-county migrations reported in the county during the month of November more so within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Pasture and forage productivity is still good to fair, hence good to fair livestock body condition and milk production. Seasonal harvests were above average in Agro-Pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. These factors have impacted positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to remain stable in the next 2-3 months. However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and IDP being resettled vulnerable due chronic exposure occasioned by initial displacement and insecurity. This group will require close monitoring and support during this period. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: a) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors though 9 Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA processes) b) General support to the Resettlement of the relocated Mukutani IDPs in terms of NFIs and farm inputs to commence reactivation of the rehabilitated Mukutani irrigation scheme 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Repair of water bowsers. 3. Support to water trucking to areas with water stress. 4. Capacity building for Water Resource User management Committees RMC on WASH. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. d) Support Re-distribution of nutrition commodities from facilities with over stocks to facilities without stocks (Preposition health and nutrition commodities) e) Support to malaria control through provision of mosquito nets across all the sub-counties. 8.2.3. Education (a) Support roof water harvesting in schools through provision and replacement of destroyed infrastructure. (b) Assessment and rehabilitation of Mukutani primary school for resumption of learning for the initially displaced IDPs. (c) Proposed construction of a Model Boarding Primary school to address chronic illiteracy, FGM and early marriage challenges in East Pokot. (d) Capacity build the community on impacts and effects of FGM. (e) Promote introduction of sustainable agro-forestry to control landslide in the Highland. (f) Introduction of school feeding programme to ECD schools. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Livestock disease control through vaccinations against notifiable dieses such as CCPP, FMD, in Tiaty, Mogotio and Baringo South; LSD in Baringo North (Barwessa), Mogotio and Marigat; (Blue Tongue) in all sub-counties. b) Support of community on pasture post-harvest management through trainings and construction of hay sheds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives d) Enhance capacity building to farmer groups on livestock enterprises. e) Training of farmers on disease control. f) Distribution of pasture seeds to farmers in preparation for the long rains. g) Support establishment of strategic feed reserves. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector a) Capacity building of farmers on post-harvest management and food handling and linkage to markets b) Support Climate Smart Agriculture Interventions c) Carryout Soil sampling and testing d) Support farmers with inputs especially seeds and seedlings e) Soil and water conservation especially on denuded farm lands f) Support to Agricultural extension for improved extension service delivery REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2018 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Improving Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of August 2018. The August Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but expected to change with the performance of the off-season rains. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 4 (70-100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones Distances to water sources for households are increasing and still within normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 12.5, which is below normal. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 31.00 113 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 4(100-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1.source:ARV An average of 31 mm rainfall was recorded in August coupled with increasing temperatures and hot weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 113.00 mm. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of August, 12 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 19 mm received in the second dekad and 62 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was un-evenly distributed across all the sub-counties. Fig.2. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The August land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County have increased to 350 C which is above normal. This is expected to increase further. Fig.3.source: LST-C6 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The August vegetation cover for Baringo County shows above average trend across all livelihood zones. VCI for all the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 27th August BARINGO County Improved vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. This might change with the performance of the rains. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, more improvement still expected with on-going rains. Fig.5.Source BOKU In August the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 84, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the current long rains. Fig.6.Source:NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Baringo County is currently showing a reducing trend from July(0.58) to August(0.55) 2018. This is attributed to reducing amounts of rainfall across all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 7. The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality livelihood zones across the county during the reporting month. The current conditions are above the level normally witnessed at such a time during a normal year though on a declining trend. The pasture is expected to last for three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and four months in the irrigated livelihood zones. There were no major variations across the livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.8. The browse condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones as the quantity and quality was good in all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.9. The main water sources for livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river Wells and pans and dams. Most open water sources were recharged to 75 to 90 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for more than four months in irrigated farming and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for two months due to high temperatures being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.10. The households trekking distance remain stable in the month from 3.3 km to 3.5 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least distance of 1.7 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 3.7 km. The current distance was relative above the Long term average. The reduction in trekking distance is due to ongoing rains thus most household access water near their homesteads. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.11. The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased to 5.4km during the month, from 5.4 km to 5.1 km. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 6km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 3.5 km. The situation is attributed to depletion of forage and browse in some areas mainly within the pastoral livelihood zones as a result of decrease in amount of rainfall received. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1.Livestock body condition The livestock body condition was good across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was neither fat nor thinin Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good smooth appearance in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of availability of pasture and water as an impact of the long rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported; the disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day remained stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was marginally below by 3; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones as a result of enough forage. Fig. 12. RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Crops planted in the county are maize, beans and sorghum. The maize in irrigated, mixed farming and agro pastoral Zones are at maturity to harvesting stage. However most of the crops were affected by the fall army warm and water logging. This affected the seasonal production. The anticipated yields may be below the long term average. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.13. The average price for the medium sized cattle decreased by 3 percent in the reporting month as compared to the previous month from Ksh. 17,650 to Ksh.17,093. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 42. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.17,778 while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,667. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.14. The average price of a goat remained stable at Ksh.2,957. The prices were above the long term average by 22. The average Goat prices were highest in Pastoral livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,991 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,800. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.15. The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.38 during the month, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 19 . Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.50 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh. 25 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.16. A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh.45 relatively comparable to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 15. This is attributed to maturing of the on farm crops with most households accessing green maize in that has demand posho forcing a drop in prices. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.17. There was no significant change in average price for a kilogram of beans as compared to the previous month from Ksh. 98 to Ksh.100 in the reporting month. The price was slightly below the long-term mean by 5; average prices. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as purchasing of seeds by farmer thus increasing the demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .18. The terms of trade improved from 70.1 in July to 78 during the month. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 70. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to increase in the livestock prices and reduced food prices. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest at 93.3 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 66.6. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household remained stable at 1.7 litres. The amount was within the seasonal ranges as compared to the long-term mean. Fig. 19. Food Consumption Score Fig.20. There were no households with poor food consumption gaps across livelihoods. Households with borderline food consumption were 3.3 and 17.8 in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. Generally 88 of the households across the livelihoods have acceptable FC. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to seasonal harvests by local farmers, low prices of major commodities at the local markets, milk availability and high households purchasing power. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.21. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition remained stable at 12.5 in August. Mainly attributed to availability of milk at households. Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 33.6 and 26.6 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria in all livelihood Zones. Chicken pox in Napur and Kamurio. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The average coping strategy index improved from 13.1 in July to 12.6 in August. Households in Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 14.6 followed by Agro- pastoral at 12. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2. The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Social protection and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC. Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by BCG. NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Capacity building of community groups through trainings on livestock related enterprises by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. Training of communities on DRR by NDMAPARTNERS. Relocation of Eldume IDPs supported by NDMA and Partners at the cost of Kshs 4.0M. Asset Creation Programme County Transition Engagement Meetings with the County Government and common work planning meetings by WFPNDMAWVK Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani (Lendorok) Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4 Million by Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No Major insecurity incidences reported during the month. Tensions still high in areas of Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North Sub County. Locust infestations were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. Cases of Rift Valley Fever were reported in Logumgum area of Marigat ward. Blue tongue cases reported in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of July. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Given the off season rainfall across livelihoods, pasture and forage productivity is still good, hence good livestock body condition and milk production. Seasonal harvests were also above average in Agro-Pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. These factors will impact positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to be low and stable in the next 2-3 months. However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to flooding and chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement and insecurity. This group will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought contingency plans. 7.1.2. Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 4. Strategic Large scale water harvesting structures 5. Capacity building for WRMC and WUAs 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 7.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, Mogotio and Baringo South; LSD in Baringo North(Barwessa), Mogotio and Marigat; (Blue Tongue) in all sub-counties. b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation initiatives through provision of pasture seeds sand construction of hay sheds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Awareness creation on management and control of FAW. b) Supply of inputs to farmers in Baringo North and Baringo South affected by insecurity through Baringo livelihood recovery support programme for the short rains c) Pre and Post-harvest trainings and supply of airtight devices. d) Support farmers on post harvest management and market linkages REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environment Agricultural pastor indicators are within th seasonal ranges Meteorological droug indicators outsid seasonal ranges Environmental and at lea two production indicators a outside Long term season ranges Environmenta Metrological Production indicators ar outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2018 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Improving Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of March 2018. The April Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal indicating the condition is normal. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 5(70- 100). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and on an improving trend. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their dry season grazing zones. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing weather conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones. This is attributed to improved livestock conditions decreasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are decreasing and still below normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 18.2, which is above normal but on a reducing trend. Occurrence of waterborne diseases reported in at least 2 wards. PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo (Mogotio) Tiaty LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 201.00 228 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 57(50)64 47 (41) 33 35-50 Of water in the water pan 5(100-70) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 35,315(maize) 17,170(bean) LTA (400Ha) LTA (400Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () Occurrence of Water borne disease-diarrhoea 2 wards reported 0-2 wards Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1 Source ARC An average rainfall of 201 mm was recorded in April coupled with low temperatures and chilly weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 228.00 mm. temporal distribution was fair. The rainfall amount received resulted to floods and landslides in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and mixed farming livelihoods. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of April, 72 mm of rainfall were received in the 1st dekad, 115 mm were received in the second dekad and more rains expected in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were above normal at this time of the year. Generally, the MAM season rains were good in spatial and temporal distribution and false onset realized within the 3rd dekad of February compared to the previous season same time. Average (2012-2016) Amount(mm) Rainfall Trends STANDARDISED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) The April SPI (SPI 3M) values for Baringo County and East Pokot sub-county are projected to be above normal. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The April vegetation cover for Baringo County shows improving trend across all livelihood zones. This situation is expected to improve further with the ongoing long rains. VCI for all the sub-counties are currently above normal ranges. COUNTY Sub County VCI as at 30th April 2018 BARINGO County Improved vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. With the on-going long rains vegetation cover is expected to improve further. Central Eldama Mogotio North South Tiaty Fig.3 Source The information provided above reflects the 5 sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, more improvement still expected with on-going rains. Fig.4.Source BOKU In April the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 57, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the performance of the current long rains. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig.5 Pasture condition in the month of April was fair to good in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods and good in irrigated livelihood zone. The quality and quantity is good as compared to the previous month. The situation is normal for this time of the year with an improving trend. 2.1.3 Browse Fig. 6 The browse condition is good across all livelihood zones, however a few pockets in the pastoral livelihood zone still have fair browse condition, The browse is palatable and of quantity and Quantity with improving trend and good for livestock. The current situation is better as compared to the previous month. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.8 The main water sources in the month of April for both domestic and livestock use were, Rivers at 30, traditional river Wells at 28 and pans and dams at 25, Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. Water volume has increased in most water pans to 75 to 90 of normal capacity as compared to the previous month. This is expected to last for about three month in all livelihood zones. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization. Fig.9 In the month of April the average trekking distance to water sources reduced by 23 to 3.7 km as compared to 4.8 km in the month of March. The distance is below the long-term average of 5.6 km by 34 this attributed to the ongoing rains. Households in Pastoral livelihood covered the longest distances of average 5.7 km to water sources as compared to those in irrigated livelihoods that covered the least distance at 2 km. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.10 Grazing distance in the month of April decreased by 12 to 6.8 km from 7.7 km in March; pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 7.4km while irrigated covered the least distance of 3 km. The distance is slightly below the long-term average by 6. This is attributed to regeneration of forage and recharge of water points as a result of the rains. 2.3 Implication to food security The early onset of the long rains coupled with improved forage conditions, decreasing grazing distances are a combination of factors likely to impact positively on the overall livestock productivity. Equally incidences of cattle rustling and armed conflict over resources are likely to decrease across livelihoods influenced by minimal livestock movements. Cases of water borne diseases are likely to reduce in the coming months as water quantity and quality continues to improve. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the reporting period, the Livestock body condition was Good Smooth appearance (score 6) in Agro- Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head (score 7) in irrigated livelihood zones. The current body condition has improved as compared to the previous month. The situation was as result of increased pasture and water due to on-going rains. BODY CONDITIONS SCORE WARNING STAGE Emaciated, little muscle left Emergency Very thin no fat, bones visible Thin fore ribs visible Alert WorseningAlarm Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Alert Moderate. Neither fat nor thin NormalAlert Good smooth appearance Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Normal Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Fat Tail buried in fat Fig.11 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases No notifiable livestock disease incidences were reported however. It is important to note that CCPP and PPR are endemic in the County. Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret Goats Sheep. 58shoats Saimo soi, Ribko Shoats 22 Shoats Heart water Saimo soi, Sibilo, Tirioko Akoret Goats 90 Shoats Fig.12 3.1.3 Milk Production During the reporting period the average litres of milk produced increased slightly to 1.6litres as compared to the previous month. This amount was similar to the long-term average this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones. Fig. 13 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops During the month of April most farmers in the irrigated, agro pastoral and some parts of Pastoral livelihood zones had planted their farms and are currently weeding their crops. However farmers in Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North have not planted due to insecurity and tension in the area. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.14 The average prices of cattle increased by 32 in the reporting month from Ksh. 12,185 in March to Ksh. 16,037 in the month of April. The price is above the long-term average by 69. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.16, 972 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14, 500. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.15 The average price per goat was Ksh.2, 739 in the month of April; this was an increase of 16 as compared to Ksh. 2, 354 in March. These prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,900 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,200. 4.2.0 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.17 The average price per kilogram maize in the month of April dropped to Ksh. 43, a price that was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 12. The prices were highest in pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh.70 lowest in the irrigated at Ksh. 30. The prices were occasioned by increase in supply of relief food in the county reducing demand thus forcing traders to reduce the prices. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.18 Posho prices in the month of April were at Ksh. 50 a decrease of 19 as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average by this time of the year by 11. This is attributed to increase in the supply of relief food that has compelled traders to reduce the maize prices. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.19 The average price per kilogram of beans was to Ksh. 113 the price was relatively comparable to the previous month; the price was above the long-term mean by 2. The high prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county as well as farmer purchasing the available quantities as seeds during this planting season thus increasing demand. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig 20 The Terms of trade improved by 42 from 45.1 in the month of March to 63.9 in the month of April. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 45 . The increase was due to increase in the overall livestock prices. Ilchamus ward in Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at 79.2 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 47.4. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption On average the milk consumed per household was at 1.6 litres in the month of April. The amount was above the long-term mean by 14 due the increased milk production at household across all livelihoods. Fig 2 Food Consumption Score Fig.22 In the Month of April most of the households has acceptable food consumption score in the county with some having borderline and only 0.6 in the pastoral livelihood zone having poor food consumption Score. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on an improving trend as compared to the previous month. This is due interventions from partners and relative market stability. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.23 During the month of April 18.2 of the assessed under-five children were at risk of malnutrition in the County; 18.9 and 18.3 male and females were at risk respectively. Ribko, Komolion and Kolloa wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 29, 26.9 and 26.6 respectively. The number of under-fives at risk was below LTA by 16 and a decrease by 8 compared to the previous month. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period cases of diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria were reported in all livelihood Zones. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.24 The Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.9 followed by Pastoral at 15.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6 in the month of April. The trend is comparable to the previous month. 5.5 Implications to food Security Increasing livestock prices coupled with decreasing crop prices imply an improving purchasing power by households; Equally, improvements in food consumption and reduction in coping strategies across livelihoods are key factors that will help improve nutrition status among under-fives as well as pregnant and lactating mothers and the general population. Given the prevailing trend a high number of households are likely to be in the food secure bracket in the coming months. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Cash transfer registration and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC Registration of Beneficiary for Lishe Bora targeting 3000HH; server cases from BSF by WFPWVK Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Purchase of Assorted seedling worth 4.4M for Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine by GOKBCG Capacity building of farmers on control of Fall Army Worms across the county and purchase of pesticides worth 0.9M for the county by GOKBCG NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Provision of pasture seeds for reseeding to communities by BCGRPLRP Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. 6.2 Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement During the reporting month insecurity incidences were reported in Ngaratuko and Natan where cattle and shoats were stolen and one person killed in the event. Tension is still high in areas of Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North Sub County. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.25 The floods have caused adverse effects in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South and Mogotio. A number of households have lost livelihood assets on the process. The areas considered to be hot spot areas are as follows: Kures, Timoi Village, Kisanana Centre, Olkokore Centre, Chepchomus, Muserechi Town-Water logged, Tian, Ilchamus Ward(Ilngarua, Ngambo, Salabani and Eldume locations) ,Mukutani Ward (Sokotei and Arabal locations, Marigat Ward(Endao, Kapkun, Sabor and Kabonjos destroyed, Mchongoi Ward (Sambaka, Chebinyiny, Kasiela, Sinoni, MuttoKimalel, Keneroi, Lomoiwe and Tuiyobei),Ribko Ward (Ribko Location. Loyamorok Ward (Loyamorok Location 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of April. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS With improving pasture, browse and water situation in the County many livelihoods in the County have registered a positive trend as evidenced by improved livestock body condition, milk production and market prices. This Coupled with a declining cereal prices and upward terms of trade and better farmers purchasing power across livelihoods, will likely catalyse a positive trend in the overall County food security situation. The on-going rains are likely to maintain these trend through positively impacting on the livestock productivity, forage quality and quantities and water availability. Food prices are likely to be low and stable. As a result, more households in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be food secure over the next two months. However some pocket of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, South Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to their chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement due to insecurity. This a groups that will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought preparedness plans. 7.1.2 Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Carry out Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Enhance integrated outreach services in hard to reach sites. d) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 7.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, LSD Blue Tongue) in Mogotio, Marigat (Blue tongue) All areas (FMD) b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio c) Include the restocking support by resilience project d) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Provision of farm inputs and technical backstopping by sub-County extension staff. b) Awareness creation on management and control of FAW. REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2018 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2018 SEPTEMPER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Improving Biophysical Indicators biophysical indicators positive fluctuations above the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of September 2018. The September Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in water pans are normal at 4 (50-80). This is expected to decline with high temperatures being experienced. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good to fair in both quality and quantity but on a worsening trend across all livelihood zones. The situation remains stable with Livestock currently accessing pasture and browse at their traditional grazing fields. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions. No Livestock deaths were reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal range and on improving trend in pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods zones Distances to water sources for households are increasing and slightly above normal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 10.5, which is below normal. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 72 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 4(80-50) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE Rainfall station data (GROUND DATA: fig .1.source:ARV An average of 4 mm rainfall was recorded in September coupled with increasing temperatures and hot weather conditions comparable to the LTA of 72.00 mm. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of September, 7.2 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 4.1 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 0.0 mm in the 3rd dekad of the same month. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year. The rainfall was un-evenly distributed across all the sub- counties. Fig.2. 1.3. TEMPERATURES 1.3.1. LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) The September land surface temperature (LST) values for Baringo County have increased to 360 C which is slightly below normal. This is expected to increase further. Fig.3.source: LST-C6 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The September vegetation cover for Baringo County shows above average trend across all livelihood zones. The current trend has reduced compared to the month of August. COUNTY County VCI as at 27th August 2018 VCI as at 30th September 2018 BARINGO County Above normal vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county. This is expected to change for the worse with high temperatures across all the livelihoods. Central Eldama Mogotio 89 North South Tiaty Fig.4. Source BOKU The information provided above reflects all sub-countys currently experiencing above normal vegetation cover, declining trend is observed across all the sub-counties. Fig.5.Source BOKU In September the vegetation cover for Baringo County was at 67, which is above normal compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. Any changes in this trend will be highly dependent on the on-set of the short rains. Fig.6.Source:NDVI-C6 The NDVI for Baringo County is currently showing an improving trend from August(0.55) to September(0.58) 2018. This is attributed to the impact of rains received in the month of August across all livelihood zones. 2.1.2 Pasture Fig. 5 The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality livelihood zones across the county during the month. The current conditions are above the level normally witnessed at such a time during a normal year though on a declining trend. The pasture is expected to last for two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and two months in the irrigated livelihood zones. The pasture was poor in a few pockets of pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse Fig.6 The browse condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones as the quantity and quality was good in all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal ranges. The available browse is expected to last for approximately four months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources Fig.7 The main water sources for livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were traditional river Wells and pans and dams and Rivers. Most open water sources were recharged to 50 to 75 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for more than three months in irrigated farming and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. In pastoral livelihood zone, the water is likely to last for two months due to high temperatures being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.8 The households trekking distance remain stable in the month from 3.5 km in the previous to 3.4 km. Irrigated cropping recorded the least distance of 1.7 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 3.7 km. The current distance was relative above the Long term average. The reduction in trekking distance is due to availability of water at nearby sources thus most household access water near their homesteads. 2.2.3 Livestock access Fig.9 The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points remained stable at 5.4 km during the month. The pastoral livelihoods covered the longest distance of 6.2km while irrigated covered the shortest distance of 3.3 km. The situation is attributed to regeneration of forage and recharge of watering points as a result of the off seasons rains. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was good across livelihoods; the Livestock body condition was neither fat nor thinin Agro-Pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones and Good smooth appearance in irrigated livelihood zones. The situation was as result of availability of pasture and water as an impact of the long rains. (Refer to table 4 in annex) 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP, PPR and Red Water were reported in Kolowa, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret, Saimo Soi, Sibilo, Tirioko and Ribko wards. No notifiable livestock diseases incidences were reported. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day remained stable in relation to the previous month. In comparison to the long-term average; the amount was similar; this was attributed to improved livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones as a result of enough forage Fig. 10 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Crops planted in the county are maize, beans and sorghum. The maize in irrigated, mixed farming and agro pastoral Zones are at maturity to harvesting stage. However most of the crops were affected by the fall army warm and water logging. This affected the seasonal production. The anticipated yields may be below the long term average. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices Fig.11 The average price for the medium sized cattle increased by 21 in the reporting month as compared to the previous month from Ksh. 17,093 to Ksh.20, 630. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 75. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.20, 889 while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16, 167. The prices were attributed to the improved livestock body condition across livelihoods. 4.1.2 Goat Prices Fig.12 The average price of a goat was Ksh.3,057 which was stable as compared to the previous month at Ksh.2, 957. The average Goat prices were highest in Pastoral livelihood Zone at Ksh.3, 136 and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh.2,850. The prices were above the long term average by 31 . 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize Fig.13 The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.36 during the month, which was a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 22 . Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.45 per Kg while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh. 25 per Kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.14 A kilogram of Posho retailed at Ksh.44 relatively comparable to the previous month at Ksh.45. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 12. This reduction is attributed to recent seasonal harvests which were above average. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Fig.15 There was a marginal increase in average price for a kilogram of beans as compared to the previous month from Ksh. 100 to Ksh.103 in the reporting month. The price was slightly above the long-term mean by 4; average prices. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county. 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade Fig .19 The terms of trade improved from 78 in August to 85.3 during the month of September. The current ToT is above the long-term average by 77. The favourable terms of trade were due to increase in the livestock prices and reduced food prices. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest at terms of trade at 105 while Pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 73. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household stabilized at 1.7 litres. The amount was within the seasonal ranges as compared to the long-term mean. Fig. 20 Food Consumption Score Fig.20. There were no proportions of households with poor food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption were 3.3 and 17.8 in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 13 and 87 of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to seasonal harvests by local farmers, low prices of major commodities at the local markets, milk availability and high households purchasing power. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status Fig.21. The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition improved to 10.5 in September. Mainly attributed to availability of milk at households. Ribko and Komolion wards recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 33.6 and 26.6 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, typhoid and malaria in all livelihood Zones. Chicken pox in Napur and Kamurio. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index Fig.22 The average coping strategy index improved from 12.6 in August to 12.2 in September. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 15 followed by Pastoral at 13.4. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.9 The trend is attributed to availability of food at household level and improved purchasing power across livelihoods. 6.0.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions Excavation of Farm Ponds in Kolloa, Ngaina, Churo Nangarwa, Sabor, Koriema, Yatoi and Maoi supported by NDMAWFP and CIMADS Rehabilitation of water facilities in Kamurio, Nalekat and Nasorot by KRC Social protection and integrated health outreaches targeting persons living with disabilities in Tiaty by KRC. Joint monitoring of asset Creation Projects at county and community level 20 sites in Marigat (Koriema, Sabor, Kibingor, Yatoi, Maoi etc.) 16 sites in Tiaty (Tangulbei, Churo, Ngarua, Kolloa, Loiwat etc.) by WFPNDMAWVK Training of community groups on economic empowerment (Village Saving and Lending Association) in Tikii in Tiaty, Kiserian, Ngambo and Maoi in Baringo South by WVK Provision of farm inputs including post harvest devices (Silos and Hermetic Bags) by BCG. NDMA together with the County governments of Laikipia, Samburu and Isiolo have been steering the Amaya Triangle Initiative focussing on Peace, Security and Development across the three Counties. Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4.5M by NDMA Vaccination against Anthrax across the county by BCG Capacity building of community groups through trainings on livestock related enterprises by BCG Resilience building through pastoral Field Schools 6 schools started; in Mogotio (2), Baringo South (1), Baringo North (1) and Baringo Central (2) by BCGRPLRP Restocking for vulnerable households in the County with 10 shoats each among 259HH supported by BCGRPLRP. Training of communities on DRR by NDMAPARTNERS. Relocation of Eldume IDPs supported by NDMA,KRCS and Partners at the cost of Kshs 4.0M. Asset Creation Programme County Transition Engagement Meetings with the County Government and common work planning meetings by WFPNDMAWVK Rehabilitation and expansion of Mukutani (Lendorok) Irrigation Scheme at Kshs. 4 Million by Food Aid HSMP support in Schools by WFP and National Government. Supplementary feeding support targeting the under-fives through selected health facilities in East Pokot by MOH and UNICEF Relief food distribution by Directorate of Special programmes through Ministry of Interior and Cordination of National Government and CIM. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No Major insecurity incidences reported during the month. Tensions still high in areas of Kagir, Chemoe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North Sub County. Locust infestations were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. Cases of Rift Valley Fever were reported in Logumgum area of Marigat ward. Blue tongue cases reported in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The table below shows results of humanwildlife conflicts where livestock killed is highlighted. Wild Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko Akoret Shoats Fig.24 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons. There have been no migrations reported in the county during the month of July. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Pasture and forage productivity is still good, hence good livestock body condition and milk production. Seasonal harvests were also above average in Agro-Pastoral and mixed livelihood zones. These factors will impact positively on the County food security. Food prices are likely to be low and stable in the next 2-3 months. However, some pockets of Households in the lowland areas of Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio and those in the IDP camps will remain in dire situation due to flooding and chronic vulnerability occasioned by displacement and insecurity. This group will require close monitoring and support during this period as they will bear the highest burden of floods and disease during this rainy season. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1.1. General Recommendations: i) Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors. ii) Sectoral revision and update of drought contingency plans. 7.1.2. Water Sector 1. Rehabilitation Servicing of water points 2. Promotion of Roof Water harvesting structures 3. Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 4. Strategic Large scale water harvesting structures 5. Capacity building for WRMC and WUAs 7.1.3. Nutrition and Health a) Mass screening and referrals to hard to reach areas in all the 6 sub-counties. b) Provision of food supplements in facilities with stock-outs in the County. c) Provisional of water treatment chemicals and sanitation messages. 7.1.4. Education a) Support Supply of SMP to schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi b) Support Feeding of ECDs catering for 10,059 and 1701 children in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub Counties 7.1.5. Livestock and Veterinary sector. a) Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, Mogotio and Baringo South; LSD in Baringo North(Barwessa), Mogotio and Marigat; (Blue Tongue) in all sub-counties. b) Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation initiatives through provision of pasture seeds sand construction of hay sheds to farmer groups in Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo South and Mogotio. c) Construction of Cattle dips to support disease control initiatives by the County government. 7.1.6. Agriculture Sector a) Supply of inputs to farmers in Baringo North and Baringo South affected by insecurity through Baringo livelihood recovery support programme for the short rains b) Pre and Post-harvest trainings and supply of airtight devices. c) Support farmers on post harvest management and market linkages REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environment Agricultural pastor indicators are within th seasonal ranges Meteorological droug indicators outsid seasonal ranges Environmental and at lea two production indicators a outside Long term season ranges Environmenta Metrological Production indicators ar outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges, local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range."
        },
        "DEWS_2019": {
            "Baringo 2019 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2019 SEPTEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of September 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and on an improving trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (70-80). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity and expected to improve with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range but on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges but improving due to improving livestock body conditions. Distances to water sources for households currently are within normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 16.4, a decrease as compared 18 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45..6 80-120 VCI-3month 86.79 35-50 Of water in the water pan 70-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 16.4 13.08 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of September, 24.1mm, 9.3mm and 18.2mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively. The amounts received slightly above the LTA. Both temporal spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and stable compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 29th August 2019 VCI as at 29th September 2019 BARINGO County 84.21 86.79 county above normal vegetation greenness with all its sub counties in above normal vegetation greenness. county experienced offseason showers that has impacted positively the vegetation condition for the county. Central 85.87 Eldama 74.64 80.71 Mogotio 88.07 89.54 North 76.57 South 85.66 90.96 Tiaty 89.28 87.67 Table.1. Source The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 86.79, which was above normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month, the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to continue improving due to the expected rains The vegetation condition is on improving trend and expected to improve more throughout the county due to the expected rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good in both quantity and quality in irrigated and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones. While fair to good in Pastoral livelihood zones; these conditions are normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. available browse expected to last for four to three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and months irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 70 to 80 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last three months irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three to four months due to rains being experienced. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was relatively stable at 3.8Km in comparison to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 41 . Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 1km while Agro pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.2km. The decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced slightly from 6.4Km to 6.1km as recorded from the previous month. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 6.7km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 4.5km. situation attributed regenerating pastures water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 19 of interviewed households reported fair livestock body condition and 30 reporting good. This fair to good body condition is occasioned by availability of good pasture, browse and water across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to improve with the onset of the short rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of CCPP and CPPR were reported in all livelihoods; the livestock department is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day increased slightly at 1.7 litres compared to the previous month at 1.5 litres. The amount is below long-term average by 15 percent. The milk was mainly from camels and cattle. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.4 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.5 litres. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers are currently harvesting the maize in the irrigated livelihood zone; while the maize in the agro pastoral livelihood zone is matured ready for harvesting. Cowpeas, beans and green grams have been harvested. The harvested maize under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to slightly below the long term average during this season. Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 17,259 an increase of 7 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 16,000. The price was above the long-term average by 16 percent. Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest prices of Ksh.22, 000 while Pastoral livelihood recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,556 The increase in prices was attributed improving livestock condition across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was Ksh.2, 798 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,839. The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 11 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,950 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The better prices were as a result improved livestock conditions. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize decreased from Ksh.55 to Ksh. 47 as compared to the previous month. The price was slightly above the long-term average at this time of the year by 6 percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.50 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.40 per Kg. This can be attributed the on going harvest of at household levels and stocks at local retailers. Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.55, a decrease of 12 percent as compared to the previous month. The price was above the long-term average for the month by 8 . These prices are attributed decreasing maize prices and availability of stocks at household level and those held by the retailers. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent from Ksh.126 to currently Ksh. 113. The price was attributed to the availability of the commodity across livelihood zones. The current prices are above the long- term average by 14 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.121 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.95. 4.3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 60 an increase of 15 as compared to the previous month attributed increase in the livestock prices. The current terms of trade comparable to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 70.3 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 50.2. Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.5 litres; a slight increase as compared to the previous month. The milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated Livelihood zone at 2.3 and lowest in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.3 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by17s. Food Consumption Score Households with poor food consumption gaps were only in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The proportion of households borderline consumption was 6.3 and 20.2 in Agro pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones respectively. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. Generally a proportion of 2.2, 15 and 83 of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and increase in purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 16.4, a decrease as compared to the previous month, the situation is attributed to an increase in milk production and consumption at household level together with improved households purchasing power across livelihoods. Komolion, Kollowa and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 32, 28.7 and 27 respectively. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score Fig.19. Muac 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. 5.4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index decreased at 13.08 as compared to last month at 14.13. Households Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 22.2 followed by Pastoral at 13.7. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3. The high coping strategies in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone was due to increased tensions in the area that has disrupted households economic activities. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Implementation of Plesian drought preparedness project for the Plesian center of excellence at Plesian Primary School. Stakeholder coordination on drought response safety nets in the County targeting ACTED Kenya, Action Aid Kenya, WFP and Kenya Red Cross. Baringo County Government Baringo County Sustainable Food Systems Programme (BCSFSP) is a resilience-building programme supported by WFP. The programme targets 4500HHs who are engaged on Asset creation activities. During the month on review, a number of projects concentrated on opening farms for Pasture establishments and Small-scale irrigation Expansion. A total number of 27 projects started land preparation as they await the onset of short rains in October- November. WFP through Mpesa cash transfer reached 4444HHs (98.76) on August 19th with a total disbursement of Kshs 22,220,000.00 being the 4th Cycle of transfer. The programme also supports 60 youth groups with capacity strengthening on economic empowerment on agribusiness Ventures. Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project Development of strategic pasture storage facility at Kamar location (10,000 bale capacity) Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index Anglican Development Service (ADS) Support of 600 households with mosquito nets and 200 adult with mosquito repellants in Tiaty Exposure training of farmers from Tiaty on climate change adaptation (taken to Yatta Machakos) Action Aid Sensitization of women and youth in Tangulbei ward on climate change impacts and solutions World Vision Kenya Households visit for baby friendly community initiatives IMAM surge targeting 13 health facilities in Tiaty Sub County Integrated health and nutrition outreaches in 58 sites (7 sites in Baringo South, 8 sites in Mogotio, 8 sites in Baringo North and 35 sites in Tiaty sub counties ) Construction of water Storage tank in Esageri in Mogotio Sub County Logistical support towards Malaria campaign in Baringo (Tiaty sub County) Kenya Red Cross Society Training of 19 Baringo county stakeholders on Disaster Risk Reduction through KRCS Satellite Enablement for Disaster Risk Reduction in Kenya SatDRR) Consortium, a satellite-technology enabled disaster risk reduction, response, capacity-building project. The SatDRR project is working to deliver an outcome of strengthened Kenyan disaster capacity for disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery through the proper application and utilization of UK satellite communication and Earth Observation services. The training was undertaken between 16th and 20th September, 2019 at Rift Hills Resort Kabarnet. Implementation of nutrition early action for scalable response in emergencies programme (integrated health nutrition in 24 sites in Tiaty) and UNICEF FLEXI project in three sites in Tiaty Deploying of four health staff to support increased needs in Tiaty-malaria response Sexual and Gender based violence awareness creation in Tiaty East and East Pokot sub counties 6.2 Food interventions Food aid to Koibos Location, Emining ward by GOK; 50 Bags of maize, 30 Bags of beans and 20 bags of rice. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Tension remains high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. Cattle rustling incidents in Kasiela area; Baringo South and Kollowa area in Tiaty Sub Counties were reported during the month. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo Kiserian Sheep 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The July- August off season rains resulted into rejuvenated forage and browse and recharge of water sources reducing access distances to water for both livestock and households. Improved pasture resulted into good livestock body condition and enhanced milk availability positively affecting livestock prices, household incomes overall purchasing power and impact positively on households. Equally the on-going crop harvests availability of local vegetables will improve dietary diversity impacting positively on the nutrition among the under-fives. This situation will however be highly dependent the performance of the short rain season. The on-going safety net initiatives by the government, ACTED, Action Aid, World vision and World Food Program targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected zones. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, recovery, monitoring and reporting. Regular Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. Support inter-community peace building activities and meeting on existing hot spots. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of boreholes, constructions of dams Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Educate the communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought Construct contingency boreholes for use only in drought 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Training community health workers in basic nutritional skills and skills related to drought and food shortage Integrated health and nutrition outreaches in the hard to reach areas that are still recovering from drought impacts Purchase, distribute and sensitize the community on use of water treatment drugschemicals Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Promote production and storage of hay Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Construct strategic hay store for communities and farmers that engage in pasture production in Baringo South, Baringo North, Mogotio, Tiaty Development of livestock market infrastructure as well as supporting livestock value chains 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Support strategic post-harvest management of crops Dissemination of live messages to communities on post-harvest management strategies Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops to make use of the short rains REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR OCTOBER 2019 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of October 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and stable. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (80-100) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and expected to remain stable with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly below the normal seasonal range but on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal seasonal ranges and on an improving due to improving livestock body conditions. Distances to water sources for households currently are within normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 15.9, a decrease as compared 16.4 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45..6 80-120 VCI-3month 86.79 35-50 Of water in the water pan 70-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(October 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 15.9 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of October, 27.3mm and 45.6mm of rainfall was received in the 1st and 2nd dekad respectively. The amounts received above the LTA. Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the sub-counties. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and stable compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 29th September VCI as at 28th October 2019 BARINGO County 86.79 76.64 county above normal vegetation greenness with all its sub counties in above normal vegetation greenness. county experienced above normal rains during the month impacted positively vegetation condition for the county. Central 85.87 84.66 Eldama 80.71 72.74 Mogotio 89.54 78.93 North 75.33 South 90.96 80.85 Tiaty 87.67 74.48 Table.1. Source The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 76.64 that was above normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has declined slightly in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to continue improving due to the ongoing rains The vegetation condition is stable and expected to improve more throughout the county due to the on-going rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality in irrigated and Pastoral livelihood Zones. While fair to good in Pastoral livelihood zones; these conditions are normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity quality across livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for four to five months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and five months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. current water sources expected to last for six months in irrigated farming livelihood zone. pastoral pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three to four months due to rains being experienced. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was relatively stable at 4 Km in comparison to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 21 Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 1km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.6 km. The decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points was relatively stable at 6.3Km as compared to the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 6.8 km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.5 km. The situation is attributed to regenerated pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month of October 22 of interviewed households reported fair and reporting livestock condition. This fair to good body condition is occasioned availability enough pasture, browse and water across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to remain steady with the on-going short rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of CCPP and CPPR were reported in all livelihoods; the livestock department is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance Fig.9. Livestock body condition 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced household increased slightly at 2.2 litres compared to the previous month at 1.7 litres. The amount is above long- term average by 15 percent. The milk was mainly from camels and cattle. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.9 litres while pastoral had the least at 1.7 litres. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have finished harvesting maize from their farms in the Irrigated and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones. The farmers who harvested earlier in September have already prepared and planted their farms for the short rains season. The area under maize and beans is expected to be lower as compared to the Long term average due delay in the previous season. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium- sized cattle was at Ksh. 19,833 an increase of 15 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 17,259 The price was above the long-term average by 42 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest prices of Ksh.20,500 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.17, The increase prices attributed to improved livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was Ksh.3, 098 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,798. The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 21 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,417 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 250. The better prices were as a result of improved livestock body conditions. Fig.10. Milk Production Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize decreased from Ksh.47 to October compared to Ksh. 44 the previous month. The price was slightly above the long-term average at this time of the year by 2 percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.47 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.38 per Kg. This can be attributed by the on going harvest of at household levels and stocks at local retailers. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.52 from Ksh. 55, a decrease of 5 percent as compared to the previous month. These prices attributed decreasing maize prices availability of stocks at household level and those held by the retailers. The price was above the long-term average for the month by 6 . 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 4 percent from Ksh.113 to currently Ksh. 109. The price was attributed to the availability of the commodity across livelihood zones. The current prices are above the long-term average by 6 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.118 while irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. Fig.13. Maize Prices Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.14.posho prices 4.3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 70.1 an increase of 17 percent as compared to the previous month at 60 this was attributed increase in the livestock prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade was above the long-term average, by 5 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 81.8 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the least at 56.3. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.5 litres; which was similar compared to the previous month. The milk consumption was highest Irrigated pastoral Livelihood zone at 1.4 litres and lowest Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.1 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by12 percent. Food Consumption Score There were no reported households with poor food consumption. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 26.5 in pastoral and 13.3 in fishing livelihood zones.. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. Generally a proportion of 19, and 81 of the households across the livelihoods have, borderline and acceptable consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and increase in purchasing power across all livelihood zones. Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status There was an improvement in the nutrition status of the proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition at 15.9, as compared to the previous month at 16.4, the situation is attributed increase production and consumption at household level together with improved households purchasing power across livelihoods. Komolion, Kapenguria and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 34.7, 31.7 and 24.1 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index decreased 12.5 at as compared to last month at13.08. Households in Pastoral livelihood employed coping strategies at 14 followed by Agro Pastoral at 13.3. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4.5. decrease coping strategies was due to increase in purchasing power and improving food security at household level across across livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Currently implementing drought preparedness project in ChuroAmaya ward dubbed Plesian center of excellence in integrating warring communities. It is a joint partnership between, Baringo County Government, NG-CDF Tiaty and Churo Amaya community. The project have various components that are meant to implemented by partners, so far NDMA components are over 90 completion (2 dormitories, dining hall and kitchen, 2 ablution blocks and water tower). Fig.19. Muac Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index Baringo County Government Sustainable food systems programme Provision of Galla bucks and Dorper rams for upgrading Provision of pasture seeds for reseeding Goats and sheep upgrading and restocking for Barwessa ward Promotion of pasture conservation. Drought Resilience and Sustainable Livelihood program Identification of sites meant for drought preparedness initiatives that include; Pasture conservation (hay stores in Sinende and Mugurin), irrigation site in Sinene (Mogotio), Water pans in Kailer (Ilchamus ward), upgrading of livestock sale yards (Loruk and Marigat), borehole site in Koroto (Saimo Soi) and Saimet and water project site in Sawaiti in Kisanana. Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project Completion of strategic pasture storage facility at Kamar location (10,000 bale capacity) and handing over the project to the community. Anglican Development Service (ADS) Undertook Climate change initiatives in in Ribkwo and Loyamorok wards of Tiaty and are in the process of preparing for the launch of drought resilience project in Baringo and Samburu counties with focus on early warning, response and resilience building to drought. Kenya Red Cross Society Implementation of nutrition early action for scalable response in emergencies programme (integrated health nutrition in 27 sites in Tiaty) and capacity building for health workers on minimal initial service package for provision of sexual reproductive health and SGBV. Initial introductory meeting for the USAID-OFDA funded project whose goal is mainly to improve the capacities of communities, county and KRCS to anticipate, prepare and respond to disaster risks. The project has a component of DRR, which will be focused mainly on Baringo and Samburu counties; and preparedness for emergency response component, which will have a national coverage. The total budget is USD 2,800,000 and it will be implemented for a period starting September 6, 2019 to March 5, 2021, targeting 150,000 individuals. Total Number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) Targeted (Individuals) as subset of above: 30,000 (this will be covered mainly by the Emergency preparedness and response component. 6.2 Food interventions Distribution of food to 800 Households in Ripkwo under the food for work programme and relief food to 200 households in Loyamorok Silale and Tirioko ward by Anglican Development Service (ADS) 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Tension remains high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. Animal Areas Reported Livest Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The sustained rains from July to date have rejuvenated forage and browse recharged of water sources; reducing access distances to water for both livestock and households. Improved pasture resulted into good livestock body condition and enhanced milk availability and overall livestock sale prices, household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk will likely improve household dietary diversity and the nutritional security among the under-fives. This situation will be bolstered further given the prevailing positive weather conditions and the related forecasts on the performance of the short rain season. The on-going safety net initiatives by the government, County government and all non state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of boreholes, constructions of dams Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought Construct contingency boreholes for use only in drought Pre-positioning of water storage facilities targeting vulnerable institutions and communities. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for rift valley fever Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for production REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2019 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of November 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and stable. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (90-100) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and expected to remain stable with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly above the normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal seasonal ranges and on an improving due to improving livestock body condition. Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 14.6, a decrease as compared 15.9 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 109.5 80-120 VCI-3month 80.11 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(November 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 14.6 15.01 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of November, 13.5mm, 9.8mm and 86.2mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively. The amounts received were below the LTA during the first and second dekad while above the LTA during the third dekad for this period. Both temporal and spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and improved as compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 28th October VCI as at 28th November BARINGO County 76.64 80.11 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness with all its sub counties in above normal vegetation greenness. The county experienced above normal rains during the month that has impacted positively the vegetation condition for the county. Central 84.66 Eldama 72.74 75.17 Mogotio 78.93 82.57 North 75.33 77.06 South 80.85 82.35 Tiaty 74.48 79.99 Table.1. Source The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 76.64 that was above normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has declined slightly in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to continue improving due to the ongoing rains The vegetation condition is stable and expected to improve more throughout the county due to the on- going rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood Zones these conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for four to five months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were traditional river wells, Rivers and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 90 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for six months in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three to four months. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.2km a 20 percent reduction as compared to the previous month at 4km. The distances are below the LTA by 18 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 0.5km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.3 km. The decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances 2.2.3 Livestock access There was a marginal decrease in return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points from 6.3Km the previous month to 5.8Km currently. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 5.8 km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 0.8 km. The situation is attributed to regenerated pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The proportion of households interviewed during the month of November that reported good and fair livestock body condition were 81 and 19 respectively. This fair to good body condition is occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to remain steady with the on-going short rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of CCP and CBP were reported in all livelihoods the livestock department is currently carrying out treatment of these diseases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 2 litres an increase of 18 percent compared to the previous month at 1.7 litres. The amount is slightly above long-term average by five percent. The milk was mainly from camels and cattle. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.6 litres while Agro pastoral had the least at 1 litre. Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have finished harvesting maize from their farms in the Irrigated and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones. The farmers who harvested earlier in September have already prepared and planted their farms for the short rains season. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh.21,352 an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 19,833 The price was above the long-term average by 54 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest prices of Ksh.23, 333 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.17, 000. The increase in prices was attributed to improved livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at Ksh.3, 044 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,098. This goat price was above the LTA by 18 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,667 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 250. The better prices were as a result of improved livestock body conditions. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was stable as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 44. The price was similar to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.46 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.33 per Kg. This can be attributed by the on going harvest of at household levels and stocks at local retailers. Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.50 from Ksh. 52, a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month. These prices are attributed decreasing maize prices and availability of stocks at household level and those held by the retailers. The price was above the same as the long-term average. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans was at Kshs.108 similar to the previous month. The price was attributed to the availability of the commodity across livelihood zones. The current prices are below the long- term average by 2 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.118 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4.3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 70 this was attributed increase in the livestock prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were above the long-term average, by 5 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 97.2 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the least at 58.7. Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.6 litres; which was a slight increase compared to the previous month. The milk consumption was highest in the pastoral Livelihood zone at 1.5 litres and lowest in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.2 litres. The amount consumed was below the long- term mean by11 percent. Food Consumption Score There were no reported households with poor food consumption. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 15.6 in pastoral, 3.6 in Agro Pastoral and 3.3 fishing livelihood zones. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. Generally, a proportion of 11, and 89 of the households across the livelihoods have, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and increase in purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status There was an improvement in the nutrition status of the proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition at 14.6, as compared to the previous month at 15.9, the situation is attributed increase production and consumption at household level together with improved households purchasing power across livelihoods. Kapenguria, Ribko and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 31.7, 23.9 and 23.2 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score Fig.19. Muac 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index decreased 15.01at as compared to last month at 12.5. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 17.1 followed by Pastoral at 17.1. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at The increase in the coping strategies was due to households being affected by the floods across all livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Completed the implementation of drought preparedness project in ChuroAmaya ward dubbed Plesian center of excellence in integrating warring communities, a joint partnership between, Baringo County Government, NG-CDF Tiaty and Churo Amaya community. The project has various components that are implemented by partners. Organized the dissemination of the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2019 report to CGS and sub-county technical team Baringo County Government Integrated outreaches and mass screening-Tiaty subcounties-63 sites, BN-8, BS-8 and Mogotio 8 sites Sub-county coordination meetings done in East-pokot on 14th Nov, Tiaty was be done on 27th November Monitoring of outreaches done in November for Tiaty and December for BN, BS and Mogotio SQUAEC survey Done in Tiaty sub counties from 23th-30th November to assess IMAM coverage Nutrition Commodities support supervision and Monitoring in 12 health facilities in the month of November Maternal infant and young child nutrition in Emergencies training of health workers done from 4th -8th November 2019 Monthly nutrition commodity prepositioning Implementation of Malezi bora weeks activities which includes vitamin A Supplementation Malaria support supervision Routine disease surveillance for livestock Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation Farmers sensitization of Agroforestry, perennial crop farming like fruits and early maturing crops such as beans, General sensitization on how to reduce post-harvest losses and aflatoxin Anglican Development Service (ADS) Held stakeholder project start up meeting on upcoming Disaster Risk Management (DRM) project Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index Kenya Red Cross Society Nutrition Early Action for scalable response in emergencies Kenya Red Cross Society in partnership with UNICEF and the County Government of Baringo continues to implement an Emergency response and resilience building project aiming to reduce the impact of drought, floods and epidemic prone diseases including Cholera. During his period, KRCS supported integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East (12 hard to reach sites), East Pokot (12 hard to reach sites) where a comprehensive health package of health services was provided comprising of; Immunization for children, Treatment of minor illnesses, Deworming, Nutrition screening, Nutrition supplementation, Referrals and link to BSFP during outreaches. During each outreach site all beneficiaries (beneficiaries in the programme plus new admissions) are screened for acute malnutrition, and oedema. The screening is done for the purposes of referrals to OTPSFP for management. Behaviour change communication is done through public health education to communities we support In the Month of Nov 2019, more than 500 5yrs children screened on their nutrition status, immunisation and supplementation (454 1yr reached, 1yr 97 immunized), 700 people reached through treatment of various ailments UNFPA CERF Project The project support Gender Based Violence (GBV) and Sexual Reproductive Health Services integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and East Pokot Sub Counties. During the period, more than 1200 people reached through awareness creation on GBV to: Enhance understanding and knowledge on human rights especially for women and children against violence Sensitize on referral services and mechanism for survivors of violence Let them understand dynamics behind rampant cases of SGBV in the target communities Peer to peer session: More than 400 youthchildren engaged with peer to peer sessions with help of CHVs, Counselors, KRCS volunteers with aim of: Creating awareness on Adolescent reproductive health needs and services, Target adolescent boys and girls, Create awareness on menstrual hygiene management, MHPSS services etc. Safe motherhood review meeting: Safe motherhood is designed to ensure women receive high-quality gynecological, family planning, prenatal, delivery and postpartum care, in order to achieve optimal health for the mother, fetus and infant during pregnancy aimed at reducing maternal mortality and morbidity. Findings shows that poor maternal health is both an indicator and a cause of extreme poverty. Total inclusive (Individual sessions and Community Baraza and Review meetings ) Total female Total male Total UNICEF WASH Project Kenya Red Cross Society through funding from UNICEF in collaboration with county government ministry of health is currently carried out emergency hygiene education targeting drought affected communities and schools Trainings: 15 CHVs trained on effective implementation of hygiene and sanitation promotion Currently, we are doing house to house hygiene promotion outreaches and follow ups through CHVsKRCS Volunteers. Below summarizes HHs and Peopled reached: Total No. of HHs Reached Total No. of People reached Female Children 5 Total 6.2 Food interventions 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. Incidences flooding reported in the areas along the Kerio River and Barwesa in Baringo North where some families where displaced. In Baringo South areas of Eldume, Sintaan and Leswaa were also affected where approximately 100 households have been affected. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The sustained rains from July to date have rejuvenated forage and browse Improved pasture resulted into good livestock body condition and enhanced milk availability and overall livestock sale prices, household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk Animal Areas Reported Livest Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep will likely improve household dietary diversity and the nutritional security among the under-fives. This situation and the related forecasts on the performance of the short rain season. The on-going safety net initiatives by the government, County government and all non state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. The current status of good forage, browse and recharged of water sources have reduced grazing and access distances to water sources for both livestock and households. This has resulted into good livestock body condition, enhanced milk availability and better livestock sale prices; positively impacting household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk will likely improve household dietary diversity and improve the nutritional security among the under-fives. The Current food and nutritional security situation will be bolstered further given the prevailing positive weather conditions in the County. All stakeholders need to take great care and take the necessary safety precautions given the current massive rains and related flooding that has resulted into loss of lives in the neighboring West Pokot County and other parts of the Country. The on-going safety net initiatives and floods early warning messaging by the National, County government and all non state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. Baringo being a high risk Malaria and Rift Valley Fever Prone County the Ministry of Health and Livestock should take the necessary preventive measures of alerting the identified key hotspots on the likely Outbreak of these diseases that in the past have caused loss of life in the County. Commercial pasture development should be explored to take advantage of current and future enhanced rainfall 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need to carry out rapid assessment to ascertain the impact of current heavy rains that resulted flash floods in most parts of the county 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega Dams taking advantages surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of boreholes, constructions of dams Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought Construct contingency boreholes for use only in drought Pre-positioning of water storage facilities targeting vulnerable schools and communities. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for rift valley fever Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2019 MAY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of May 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are below normal and on a worsening trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (5- 10 ). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity and expected to worsen with the continuing dry spell. Livestock migrations were reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal the seasonal and on a worsening trend. Drought related Livestock deaths were reported in Pastoral and Agro pastoral Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and worsening as many households can hardly afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges with the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones being mostly affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 19.3, an increase as compared 14.8 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges but on a worsening trend. PASTORAL ALARM STABLE AGRO PASTORAL ALARM STABLE IRRIGATED CROP ALARM STABLE COUNTY ALARM STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 13.46 35-50 of water in the water pan 3 (5-10) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) Some Deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.3 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of May, 9.9mm, 18.1mm and 34.9mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively. The amounts received in the 1st and 2nd dekad were below the LTA while the rainfall received in the 3rd dekad was above the LTA. Both temporal and spatial distribution was poor across all the sub-counties. The current NDVI was also below the LTA. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was below normal and on worsening trend compared to the month of April 2019 as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 29th April 2019 VCI as at 29th May 2019 BARINGO County 19.39 13.46 Below normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county compared to last month. All sub-counties are experiencing depletion vegetation cover as indicated in the table. Central 22.65 13.38 Eldama 18.45 11.44 Mogotio 12.97 North 17.19 12.43 South 14.53 Tiaty 20.44 16.12 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 13.46 indicating below normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. This attributed to the on the current drought. Fig.2 The vegetation condition is on a worsening trend throughout the county due to the continued dry weather conditions, the situation is expected to worsen given the failed long rains. Fig.3 Fig. 1 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is poor both in quantity and quality in all livelihood zones; these conditions are below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for less than one month across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor in quantity quality across livelihood zones; the condition is below the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for approximately less than one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and one month in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across livelihoods boreholes, traditional river wells and rivers. Most water pans and dams were at 5 to 10 of their full capacity. Households are mainly depending on boreholes for water with a number already having dried up. Pumping and waiting time at the boreholes has increased in all livelihood zones. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is poor, which is abnormal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one month in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for less than one month due to congestion at source high temperatures and strong winds being experienced. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization Fig.4 Fig.5 Fig.6 The average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 8.5km to 8.6Km in comparison to the previous month. The distances have doubled as compared to the LTA. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 3km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 14km in Kollowa and Ngoron. The increase in distances is attributed to drying up of 95 of the water pans and other open water sources in all livelihood zones. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased from 12.2km to 12.3km recorded the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 15km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of The situation is attributed to dwindling pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones forcing herders to move further in search of the pasture. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS Fig.7 Fig.8 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 63 of households interviewed reported poor livestock body condition with 37 indicating fair. As occasioned by dwindling pasture and water access across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to worsen given the current drought. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Foot and Mouth and CPPR were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The livestock departed is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was 1.4 litres a reduction as compared to the previous month. The amount is below long-term average by 17. The milk was mainly from camels and Goats. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have not planted theirs farms as they are still waiting the onset of the long rains season. The few who planted their crops failed to germinate due to low soil moisture. The acreage under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to reduce by over 50 in the current cropping season. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE Fig.9 Fig.10 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 12,315 a reduction of 17 as compared previous month. price slightly above the long-term average by Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.17, 208 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.7,000. The decline in prices was attributed to declined livestock body condition and panic sale across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Price The average price of a medium size goat decreased marginally by 6 percent from Ksh. 2, 477 to Ksh. 2,313 as compared to the previous month but below that for same month in 2018. The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 4 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,975 lowest Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1, 667. reduction in prices was due to farmers increased sales in exchange for cereal and pulses purchase in the local markets 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.52 during the reporting period that is 18 increase of as compared to the previous month. The price was relatively comparable to the long-term average at this time of the year Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.65 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.38 per Kg. This can be attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) Fig.11 Fig.12 Fig.13 The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.59, an increase as compared to the previous month at Ksh.51. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 3. These increased prices are attributed appreciating maize prices and diminishing stocks at household level and those held by the retailers. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans was at Ksh.117 compared to Ksh. 105 the previous month; the increase in prices was attributed to the scarcity of the commodity across livelihood zones. The current prices are above the long- term average by 4 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.160 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade decreased by 9 percent from 48.9 the previous month to 44.6 currently; this was attributed to decrease in the livestock prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 5percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 72 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 43.2 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS Fig.15 Fig.16 Fig.14 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day steady at 1.4 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the irrigated livelihood zone at 1.8 litres. While 1.3 litres and 1 litre in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones respectively. The amount consumed was similar to the long-term mean. Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. The proportion of households borderline consumption was 41.4, 40.6 and 33.3 in Agro-pastoral, Pastoral and irrigated Livelihood Zones respectively. The current FCS has declined as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 19, 39 and 42 of the households across livelihoods poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has deteriorated; however the situation is expected to worsen due to the on-going drought across the county, decreased purchasing power and decrease of foodstuffs in the local markets. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 19.3, an increase as compared to the previous month, the increase is attributed to decrease production consumption and reduction in the number of food groups consumed at household level together declining households purchasing power across livelihoods. Kapenguria, Komolion and Ribko, wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 42.4, 32.4 and 31.7 respectively. Fig.17 Fig.18 Fig.19 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections across livelihood zones. This was due to poor water quality and quantity and dust occasioned by strong winds. No major human disease outbreaks were reported during the month of May. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index increased from 15.9 to 16.3 compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.7 followed by Pastoral at 17.6. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at This trend is attributed to increasing food prices in the pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions a) SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program targeting of vulnerable households for social protection support supported by GoK and WFP.) Targeting and beneficiary registered 4500HHs as follows: Tiaty sub county- 1915HHs Mogotio Sub county- 554HHs B. South Subcounty - 532HHs Central SubCounty- 419HHs North Subcounty- 1080HHs Electronic Registration of tier 1 beneficiary attained 99.6 among the projects for implementation during the first year are; Pasture establishment, Provision of water through water pan and sinking of boreholes and farm ponds equipping. 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC. A total of 4,660 household were reached; Maize- 88,248Kgs (88.2 MT), Beans- 38,000Kgs ( 38.0 MT) and Cooking Oil- 540liters (20pcs20l, 14pcs10L b) Water trucking to institutions and health facilities by NDMABCG 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major insecurity incidences in county though still there are tensions along the borders. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table 1 Table 1. Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Fig.20 7.2 Migration There have been cases intra-county livestock migrations reported during the month of May especially within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The livestock migration routes currently are:- Kolloa-tioko-kasarani- mallaso AmayaChuro towards Samburu and Laikipia Saimo soi-Arabal-Rugus Barwessa-Kerio river zones Yatya-Sibilo-Barketiew hills Migrations of people were reported in Kollowa and Ngoron areas towards the neighbouring county of west Pokot. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Dwindling forage and browse, drying up of water sources has resulted in increased water access distance for both livestock and households in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro-pastoral posing serious threat to the livestock sector. This situation coupled with declining livestock body condition and milk availability has resulted into increasing malnutrition among the under-fives, declining livestock market prices and Household purchasing power that will likely affect the overall County food and nutrition security across Livelihoods. This situation will be made worse following the failed long rains season in the County. The current situation will require urgent multi-sector response strategies and resource mobilization and allocation more proactive response mechanisms from the Baringo County government drawing from the County emergency fund with focus on overall health and nutrition integrated outreaches, WASH through provision of clean portable water and water treatment chemicals to schools and households, provision of livestock feeds and accelerated commercial off-take with a high likelihood of initiating slaughter off take in the coming months The on-going relief food provision operations and all other safety net initiatives should be scaled up and sustained across the vulnerable households in the hotspot livelihoods to ensure the County guarantees the safety of all lives and livelihoods. On the over the lowlands of Tiaty, Baringo south and north and Mogotio are experiencing Severe to Extreme agricultural drought that demand for IMMEDIATE and Very URGENT response ACTION. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, response, monitoring and reporting. Regular Sub- County drought monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Mechanized Desilting and expansion of 24 No. Critical water pans during this dry period. Scale up water trucking to schools and health institutions and provision of Water treatment Chemicals to forestall closures. Provision of fueldiesel subsidy to community high yielding boreholes. Repair and servicing of the existing water bowsers Allocation of resources to the rapid response teams to address the current water crisis in the County. Repair of broken down water supply systems and critical boreholes to ensure normalcy. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Stepping up of Vitamin A Supplementation Scale up mass screening in Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South and Mogotio. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Provision of livestock Concentrate feeds to the vulnerable herds in the hotspots. Purchase and distribution of livestock feeds to areas experiencing acute pasture shortage especially in Tiaty, Baringo North, South and Mogotio Sub-counties. Promotion of accelerated commercial livestock off-take 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Pre- positioning of farm inputs provision to support households in the irrigated livelihood zones. Dissemination of live messages to communities on post harvest management strategies. REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2019 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of March 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are below normal and on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (5- 10 ). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor in both quality and quantity and expected to worsen with the current dry spell. Minimal migrations were reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal ranges and on a declining trend. Cases of drought related Livestock deaths were reported mainly in the pastoral Livelihood zone. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and most households can still afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges with the Pastoral livelihood zones being most affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives children at risk of malnutrition increased to 13.8, as compared to the previous month Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges but on a deteriorating trend. PASTORAL ALERT DETERIORATING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT DETERIORATING IRRIGATED CROP ALERT DETERIORATING COUNTY ALERT DETERIORATING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45.00 94 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 29.47 35-50 Of water in the water pan 3(5-10) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.8 15.13 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of March, 9 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 3.7 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 16.3 mm in the 3rd dekad. The amounts received were below normal at this time of the year across all the sub- counties. Equally the current NDVI was also below the LTA and on a deteriorating trend. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was below normal and on declining trend compared to the previous month of February 2019 as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 28th February 2019 VCI as at 25th March 2019 BARINGO County 42.83 29.47 Below normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county compared to last month. All sub-counties are experiencing depletion vegetation cover as indicated in the table. Central 54.54 37.48 Eldama 49.03 28.42 Mogotio 37.46 26.31 North 39.95 24.39 South 47.84 35.22 Tiaty 40.36 29.03 Table.1. Source BOKU In March 2019 the vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 29.47 indicating below normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. This attributed to the on the ongoing dry spell. Fig.2 The vegetation condition is on a deteriorating trend throughout the county due to the continued dry weather conditions but should change with the onset of the long rains. Fig.3 Fig.1 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones in the county; these conditions are below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for less than one month in all livelihood zones if the long rains delay further. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; condition above the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected approximately one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and two months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were traditional river wells, pans and dams, boreholes and rivers. Most water pans and dams were at 5 to 10 of their full capacity. Most households are currently using Traditional River Wells, water pans and boreholes Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair to poor, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one month in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for less than one month temperatures being experienced. Fig.4 Fig.5 Fig.6 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased from 6.2km to 8.3km as compared to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 60. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 5km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest distance of 10km. The increases in distances are attributed to drying up of 90 of the water pans and other open water sources across all livelihood zones. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased from 10.4km to 12km in March. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 12.8km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 8.7km. This is attributed to declining pasture, browse and water at the traditional grazing zones across livelihood zones compelling herders to move further in search of the pasture. Fig.7 Fig.8 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 45 percent of households interviewed indicated poor livestock body condition while 33 and 22 reported it was fair and good respectively. This situation was as result of dwindling pastures across all livelihood zones. The situation is likely to deteriorate as the dry spell continues to be experienced. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. As a response measure, vaccinations are being carried out against the same disease presently. The Baringo County Government is funding the exercise. 3.1.3 Milk Production average produced household per day reduced by 11 percent as compared to the previous month, however the amount was above the long- term average by 14 percent. The milk was mainly from camels and Goats. RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have started preparing their farms in anticipation of the onset of the long rains season. Fig.9 Fig.10 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The average price for a medium sized Kshs16,161 fairly comparable to that posted in February The price was significantly above the long-term average by 52. Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.19,000 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,184. 4.1.2 Goat Prices The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 16 percent. The price decreased by 5 percent from Ksh.2, 680 in February to Ksh. 2,552 in March. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,917 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The decline in prices was due to increased sales in local markets exchange for cereal and pulses purchase as driven by the ongoing drought. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.41 during the month, which was a slight increase as compared to February. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by Pastoral livelihood recorded the highest price of Ksh.46 while Pastoral Livelihood recorded lowest of Ksh.30 per Kg. This can be attributed to availability of stocks at household levels and local retailers. Fig.11 Fig.12 Fig.13 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.48, a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 16. The current stable posho prices are attributed to relatively low prevailing maize market prices and imports into the county by businessmen. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The price per kilogram of beans was stable at Ksh.111 compared to the previous month. The current price is above the long- term average by 2. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county occasioned by demand for planting seed. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.160 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 62.5. This is a decrease of 9 percent in comparison to the previous month at 68.8. This was attributed to decrease in the livestock prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are above the long-term average by Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 92.6 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 57.9. Fig.14 Fig.15 Fig.16 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was steady at 1.5 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the irrigated livelihood zone at 2.1 litres while it was 1.3 litres and 1 litre in the Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood Zones respectively. The amount consumed was above the long-term mean by 25 percent. Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps in all livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 33, 25.1 and 25 in Agro- pastoral, Pastoral irrigated Livelihood Zones respectively. The current FCS has declined as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 22, 26 and 52 households across livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones deteriorated; however the situation is expected to improve due to the on-going response across the county and availability of foodstuffs in the local markets from the neighbouring counties. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 13.8, this is an increase compared to the previous month. This is attributed to decrease of milk production and reduction in the number of food groups consumed at household level and declining purchasing power across all livelihoods. Komolion, Kolowa and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.7, 26.5 and 24.3 respectively. Fig.17 Fig.18 Fig.19 5.3.2 Health During this reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea and malaria across livelihood zones. This was due to deteriorating water quality and quantity and contamination at water sources. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index increased from 14.2 to 15.13 compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19.7 followed by Pastoral at 17.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.8. The trend is attributed to increasing food prices in the pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Fig.20 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions a) SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program targeting vulnerable households for social protection support supported by GoK and WFP.) Targeting and beneficiaries registered were 4500HHs as follows: Sub-County Target Population Tiaty sub county 1915HHs Mogotio Sub county 554HHs Baringo South Subcounty 532HHs Central SubCounty 419HHs North Subcounty 1080HHs Electronic Registration of tier 1 beneficiary attained 99.6 among the projects for implementation during the first year are; Pasture establishment, Provision of water through water pan and sinking of boreholes and farm ponds equipping. b) Water trucking to institutions and health facilities was done by NDMA in conjunction with the County Government of Baringo. 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid was distributed to needy beneficiaries in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major insecurity incidences in the county though still there are tensions along the borders. There human-wildlife conflicts where livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table 2 Table 2. 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons There have been minimal cases of intra-county livestock migrations reported in the county during the month especially within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Sporadic cases of banditry were reported in parts of Koloa affecting livestock access to water. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Dwindling forage and browse and declining watering points as reflected by increasing distance for both households and livestock in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro- pastoral, is posing serious threat to the livestock sector. This will ultimately result into massive livestock migrations with a high possibility for armed resource based conflict and increased malnutrition incidences due to limited access to milk by the under-fives. Cases of water resource scarcity for domestic use, drinking and sanitation in most parts of the county and service institutions will likely worsen in the coming months if the anticipated long rains are not realized on time. These challenges will require immediate intervention by the water sector Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats and partners through water trucking, provision of water treatment chemicals and key WASH messages. Increased incidences of malnutrition will require a multi-stakeholder intervention through mass screening and referrals and integrated health and nutrition outreaches. Livelihoods recording livestock deaths due to forage scarcity may require supplementary feed support in the form of hay and concentrates. Therefore the food security situation in the county is worsening and the trend is likely to continue till the onset of the long rains. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1. General Recommendations: Increase drought status surveillance and reporting by TWGs to the CSG for timely response. Support more dialogue and peace meetings in all the conflict hotpots. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Water trucking to schools and health institutions and provision of Water treatment Chemicals to forestall closures. Provision of fueldiesel subsidy to community boreholes Repair and purchase of tyres for the existing water bowsers Support service provision and supply disruption surveillance by the rapid response teams to address the current water crisis in the County Repair of broken down water supply systems and critical boreholes to ensure normalcy. Mechanized Desilting and expansion of 24No. Critical water pans during this dry period. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Stepping up of Vitamin A Supplementation Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders. Initiate integrated health and nutrition outreaches in the malnutrition hotspots in the County. Monitoring and reporting of supply stock-outs for supplies restocking 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. Support water supply to schools and institutions for sustained operations and access by the community. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Disease surveillance and vaccination of notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Purchase and distribution of livestock feeds to areas experiencing acute pasture shortage especially in Tiaty, Baringo North, South and Mogotio Sub-counties. Resource mobilization to support livestock vaccination against FMD, LSD and CCPP. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Prepositioning of farm inputs in readiness for the long rain season, targeting drought tolerant crops and pasture seeds. REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2019 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of June 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are below normal and on a improving trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (50- 70 ). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is poor to good in both quality and quantity and expected to improve with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is poor to fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal the seasonal and on a increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and improving due to improving livestock body conditions. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges though on a declining trend due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 19.8, an increase as compared 19.3 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP ALARM IMPROVING COUNTY ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 13.46 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-70 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.8 14.22 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During month June, 91.7mm, 21mm and 53.3mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively. The total amounts received were above the LTA Both temporal spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. The current NDVI was also below the LTA. Fig. 1. Rainfall performance 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was below normal and stable as compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 29th May 2019 VCI as at 25th June 2019 BARINGO County 13.46 12.43 Below normal stable vegetation conditions experienced in Baringo county compared to last month. All sub-counties are experiencing depletion in vegetation cover as indicated in the table though the situation is expected to improve with the received rains. Central 13.38 Eldama 11.44 Mogotio 16.83 North 12.43 South 14.53 15.31 Tiaty 16.12 15.79 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 12.43 indicating below normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has reduced slightly in quantity and quality. However the situation is expected to improve due to the recent rains received throughout the county. The vegetation condition is on a stable trend and expected to improve throughout the county due to the on- going rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to good both in quantity and quality in irrigated livelihood Zone. While poor to fair in Pastoral Pastoral livelihood zones; these conditions below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for two to three months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; however the condition is below the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across livelihoods Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 70 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihoods is fair, which is not normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for three month in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for one to two months due to rains being experienced. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources reduced by 26 from 8.5km to 6.3Km in comparison to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 85. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 2km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of The decrease in distances is attributed to on-going rains across all livelihood zones. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced from 12.3km to 8.1Km recorded the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 9.1km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 2km. The situation is attributed to regenerating pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones forcing herders to move back. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 45 of households interviewed reported poor livestock body condition with 44 indicating fair and 11 reporting good. As occasioned by regeneration of pasture and recharge water sources across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to improve given the current rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Foot and Mouth and CPPR were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The livestock departed is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was 1.1 litres a slight increase as compared to the previous month. The amount is below long-term average by 39. The milk was mainly from camels and Goats. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers have planted theirs farms after the rains were received throughout the county; however the farmers are mostly planting short term maturing crops such as cowpeas, beans and green grams. The acreage under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to reduce by over 50 in the current cropping season. Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 12,500 slight increase compared previous month. price slightly above the long-term average by two percent. Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.19,500 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.10,667. The low prices were attributed to declined livestock body condition and panic sale across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Price The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 2,283 as compared to the previous month but below that for same month in 2018. The average price of a goat was marginally above the LTA. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,150 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1, 600. The prices was due to farmers increased sales in exchange for cereal and pulses purchase in the local markets and farm inputs 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was stable at Ksh.51 as compared to the previous month. The price was relatively comparable to the long-term average at this time of the Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.42 per Kg. This can be attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.59, Similar to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 2. These prices are attributed appreciating maize prices and diminishing stocks at household level and those held by the retailers. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans was at Ksh.121 compared to Ksh. 117 the previous month; the increase in prices was attributed to the scarcity of the commodity across livelihood zones and increase for planting materials. The current prices are above the long-term average by 11 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded highest average prices Ksh.131 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were relatively comparable to the previous month at 44.5 currently; this was attributed to decrease in the livestock prices and relative high maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by five percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 65 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 41 Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day steady at 1.1 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.5 litres. While 1 litre in the Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood Zones respectively. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by 31. . Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps in the Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones The proportion of households with borderline consumption 35.6 and 8.9 in pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 19, 39 and 42 of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables across all livelihood zones and cash transfer by WFP in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The situation is expected improve due to the on-going rains across the county thus increase in availability of vegetables and increase in purchasing power. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 19.8, an increase as compared to the previous month, the increase is attributed to minimal milk production and consumption at household level together with poor households purchasing power across livelihoods. Komolion, Ribko and Kapenguria wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 35, 33.6 and 33.3 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea and malaria across livelihood zones. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No major human disease outbreaks were reported during the month. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig.18. Food Consumption Fig.19. Muac 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index decreased from 16.3 to 14.22 as compared to last month. Households Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.6 followed by Pastoral at 14.9. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.4. This trend attributed interventions from partners in the pastoral pastoral livelihood zones. Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Training of CMDRR TOTs for Baringo county technical CSG members for 2 weeks Baringo County Government SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program, finalized the mop up exercise for beneficiary Registration. Cash transfers Disbursement to targeted Households (4500) were not conducted in June. BCG and WFP still finalizing work plans and budget for resilience building Project to be implemented in 18 wards across 5 sub counties. Resilience project proposed by communities cut across water and irrigation, livestock production through pasture production and rain water harvesting structures. Baringo County department of Health and Nutrition conducted integrated outreaches in 26 sites in Tiaty with support from Kenya Red cross. Baringo County SMART survey training conducted for the data collection team Vaccination of livestock against FMD PPR Routine disease surveillance for both human and livestock Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project Support to livestock vaccination program against FMD PPR (100,000 doses for FMD, 750,000 doses for PPR) Distributed of poultry incubators to six pastoral field schoolspasture production groups for Income Generation Activities (Kamar, Mugurin, Salabani, Kipcherere, Lelmen Kapkalelwa) Anglican Development Service (ADS) ADS supported climate change resilience projects in Ribko, loyamorok and parts of Silale wards in Tiaty sub-county, mainly focusing on water conservation and dry land farming techniques Action Aid Baringo county government climate change adaptation plan development 2018-2022 supported by ActionAid World Vision Kenya Technical assessment for various BHs with high yield in drought prone areas of Koloa and Tirioko to undertake repairs, equipping and some pipeline extension Currently working on database for 300 beneficiaries to be supported under the cash transfer program Construction of masonry water tank for Esageri primary school to support vulnerable children with special needs in the school Distribution of farm inputs (seedling) to farmers a long Mario River in Tirioko 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC. A total of 4,660 household were reached; Maize- 88,248Kgs (88.2 MT), Beans- 38,000Kgs ( 38.0 MT) and Cooking Oil- 540liters (20pcs20l, 14pcs10L b) Water trucking to institutions and health facilities by NDMABCG 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences in Kasiela area Baringo south Sub County where cattle were stolen. Tensions are also high in areas of Chemoe ,Kagir,Tuluk,Chemanangoi,Nawe Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month of June in the county; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Rejuvenating forage and browse, recharge of water sources has resulted in reduced water access distance for both livestock and households in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro-pastoral posing a relief to the livestock sector. This situation coupled with improved livestock body condition and milk availability is likely to result into decrease in malnutrition among the under- fives, increased livestock market prices and Household purchasing power that will affect the overall County food and nutrition security across Livelihoods. This situation is likely to be short lived due to poor performance of the Long rains season in the County. The current situation will require urgent multi-sector preparedness strategies and resource mobilization and allocation, more proactive preparedness mechanisms from the Baringo County government drawing from the County emergency fund with focus on overall health and nutrition integrated outreaches, WASH through provision of clean portable water and water treatment chemicals to schools and households. The on-going relief food provision operations and all other safety net initiatives should be sustained across the vulnerable households in the hotspot livelihoods to ensure the County guarantees the safety of all lives and livelihoods. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, response, monitoring and reporting. Regular Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. Strengthen management capacities of community project management committees for longer term sustainability Support inter-community peace building activities and meeting on existing hot spots 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Capacity strengthening for community water resource management committees Support decongestion of community water point through construction of water kiosks and pipeline extension Mechanized Desilting and expansion of 24 No. Critical water pans during this dry period. Scale up water trucking to schools and health institutions and provision of Water treatment Chemicals to forestall closures. Provision of fueldiesel subsidy to community high yielding boreholes. Repair and servicing of the existing water bowsers Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Allocation of resources to the rapid response teams to address the current water crisis in the County. Repair of broken down water supply systems and critical boreholes to ensure normalcy. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Stepping up of Vitamin A Supplementation Scale up mass screening in Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South and Mogotio. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. Provision for rain water harvesting in schools, hard hit by water shortages occasioned by drought Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Provision of livestock Concentrate feeds to the vulnerable herds in the hotspots. Purchase and distribution of livestock feeds to areas experiencing acute pasture shortage especially in Tiaty, Baringo North, South and Mogotio Sub-counties. Promotion of accelerated commercial livestock off-take Support pasture establishment and management for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Pre- positioning of farm inputs provision to support households in the irrigated livelihood zones. Dissemination of live messages to communities on post-harvest management strategies. Expand the irrigation schemes to increase crop production and support training of scheme management committees REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2019 JULY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of July 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and on an improving trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (60- 80). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity and expected to improve with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal ranges but on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and improving due to improving livestock body conditions. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges though on a declining trend due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 20.2, an increase as compared 19.8 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 56.01 35-50 Of water in the water pan 60-80 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 20.2 14.35 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of July, 16.1mm 38.6mm rainfall received in the 1st and 2nd dekad. The amounts received were slightly below LTA. Both temporal spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. The current NDVI was also above the LTA. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and improving compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 25th June 2019 VCI as at 29th July 2019 BARINGO County 12.43 56.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness with all its sub counties in normal above normal vegetation greenness. county experienced offseason showers from June that has improved the vegetation condition for the county from severe vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation condition. Central 39.37 Eldama 40.87 Mogotio 16.83 64.39 North 48.02 South 15.31 58.92 Tiaty 15.79 61.30 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 56.01 indicating above normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to continue improving due to the recent rains received throughout the county. The vegetation condition is on an improving trend and expected to improve more throughout the county due to the on-going rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to good both in quantity and quality in irrigated livelihood Zone. While poor to fair in Agro Pastoral Pastoral livelihood zones; these conditions are below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for two to three months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; however, the condition is below the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three to five months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 80 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair, which is not normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for six months in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for two to three months due to rains being experienced. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources reduced by 6.3km 5.3Km comparison to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 66 Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 1.7km while Agro pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 6km. The decrease in distances is attributed to on-going rains across all livelihood zones. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced from 8.1Km to 7.3Km recorded the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 7.8km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 2km. The situation is attributed to regenerating pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones forcing herders to move back. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During month households interviewed reported poor livestock body condition with 59 indicating fair and 30 reporting good. As occasioned by regeneration of pasture and recharge water sources across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to improve given the current rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Foot, Mouth CPP and CPPR were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The livestock department is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. 3.1.3 Milk Production average produce household per day was 1.5 litres an increase of 36 percent as compared to the previous month. amount below long-term average by 25 percent. The milk was mainly from camels and cows. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers have planted theirs farms after the rains were received throughout the county; however, the farmers are mostly planting short term maturing crops such as cowpeas, beans and green grams. The acreage under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to reduce in the current cropping season as compared to the long term average. Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium- sized cattle was at Ksh. 14,731 an increase of 18 as compared to the previous month. The price was slightly above the long-term average by 12 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest average prices of 20,583 while Pastoral livelihood recorded the least average price of Ksh. 9,500. The increase in prices was attributed improving livestock condition across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat increased by 12 percent at Ksh.2,564 as compared to the previous month and The average price of a goat was stable in comparison to the LTA. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,250 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1, 650. The prices were as a result of increased sales in exchange for cereal and pulses purchased in the local markets and farm inputs. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was at Ksh.56 an increase as compared to the previous month at Ksh.51. The price was above the long-term average at this time of the year by 19 percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.58 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.40 per Kg. This can be attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. Fig.11. Cattle Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.64, an increase as compared to the previous month. The price was above the long-term average for the month by 19. These prices are attributed appreciating maize prices and diminishing stocks at household level and those held by the retailers 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans was at Ksh.139 compared to Ksh. 121 the previous month; an increase of 15 percent. The increase in prices was attributed to the scarcity of the commodity across livelihood zones and increase for planting materials. The current prices are above the long-term average by 31 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.131 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4.3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 46 a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 44.5 this was attributed marginal increase in the livestock prices. The current terms of trade are below the long- term average by 10 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 68.5 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 36.7. Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.3 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the Agro Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.5 litres. While 1.2 litres in the Irrigated- cropping livelihood Zones respectively. The amount consumed was below the long- term mean by 19. Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps in the Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones The proportion households borderline food consumption was 44.8 and 44.1 in Agro pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones. The current improved compared to the previous month. A proportion of 6, 34 and 60 of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables across all livelihood zones and cash transfer by WFP in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The situation is expected improve due to the on-going rains across the county thus increase in availability of vegetables and increase in purchasing power. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 20.2, a marginal increase as compared to the previous month, the increase is attributed to minimal milk production and consumption at household level together with poor households purchasing power across livelihoods. Komolion, Kapenguria Kolowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 34.7, 31.7 and 31.6 respectively. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig.18. Food Consumption Fig.19. Muac 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea and malaria across livelihood zones. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No major human disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was stable to 14.35 as compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 27 followed by Pastoral at 14.5. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at This trend is attributed to interventions from partners in the pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Monitoring and evaluation of drought response water storage prepositioning tanks. Review and update of the county drought response plans. Support to the multi-sector long rains food security assessment Baringo County Government SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program, finalized the mop up exercise for beneficiary Registration. Cash transfers Disbursement to targeted Households (4500) were not conducted in June. BCG and WFP still finalizing work plans and budget for resilience building Project to be implemented in 18 wards across 5 sub counties. Resilience project proposed by communities cut across water and irrigation, livestock production through pasture production and rainwater harvesting structures. Baringo County department of Health and Nutrition conducted integrated outreaches in 26 sites in Tiaty with support from Kenya Red cross. Baringo County SMART survey training conducted for the data collection team Vaccination of livestock against FMD PPR Routine disease surveillance for both human and livestock Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project Support to livestock vaccination program against FMD PPR (100,000 doses for FMD, 750,000 doses for PPR) Distributed of poultry incubators to six pastoral field schoolspasture production groups for Income Generation Activities (Kamar, Mugurin, Salabani, Kipcherere, Lelmen Kapkalelwa) Anglican Development Service (ADS) ADS supported climate change resilience projects in Ribko, loyamorok and parts of Silale wards in Tiaty sub-county, mainly focusing on water conservation and dry land farming techniques Action Aid Baringo county government climate change adaptation plan development 2018-2022 supported by ActionAid World Vision Kenya Technical assessment for various BHs with high yield in drought prone areas of Koloa and Tirioko to undertake repairs, equipping and some pipeline extension Currently working on database for 300 beneficiaries to be supported under the cash transfer program Construction of masonry water tank for Esageri primary school to support vulnerable children with special needs in the school Distribution of farm inputs (seedling) to farmers a long Mario River in Tirioko 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC. A total of 4,660 households were reached; Maize- 88,248Kgs (88.2 MT), Beans- 38,000Kgs (38.0 MT) and Cooking Oil- 540liters (20pcs20l, 14pcs10L 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were insecurity incidences in Kasiela in Baringo South and Kosile area Baringo North Sub Counties where cattle were stolen. Tension is also high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month of July in the county; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The stability in the in the on-going rains, has resulted into rejuvenated forage and browse, recharge of water sources thus reduced water access distance for both livestock and households in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro-pastoral posing a relief to the livestock sector. This situation coupled with improved livestock body condition and improving milk availability is likely to result into decrease in malnutrition among the under-fives, increased livestock market prices and enhanced Household purchasing power that is likely to positively affect the overall County food and nutrition security situation across Livelihoods. This positive trend will however be highly dependent on the performance of the on going rains in the County. The current relief food provision operations and all other safety net initiatives should be sustained across the vulnerable households in the hotspot livelihoods to ensure the County guarantees the safety of all lives and livelihoods. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, recovery, monitoring and reporting. Regular Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. Support inter-community peace building activities and meeting on existing hot spots 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Capacity strengthening for community water resource management committees Capacity building on Wash Water managementResources Mobilization Conflict resolution and management and Catchment protection Construction of 4Small dams for domestic and irrigation water use Construction and Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies systems. Water Bowser servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision Capacity building on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs Scale up mass screening 80 sites in Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South and Mogotio. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo Kiserian Sheep 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. Provision for rain water harvesting in schools, hard hit by water shortages occasioned by drought Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Support pasture establishment and management for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Pre- positioning of farm inputs provision to support households in the irrigated livelihood zones. Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of demonstration Materials and training (Traps, pheromones, and chemical and sprayers) REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2019 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal-Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of February 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (25-35). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity but expected to worsen with the current dry spell. Minimal migrations reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is good to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is normal given the prevailing forage conditions though on a declining trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths were reported across all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal seasonal ranges and most households can still afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges with the Pastoral livelihood zones being mostly affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-fives children at risk of malnutrition was 13, which is comparable to the previous month. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges but on a deteriorating trend. PASTORAL ALERT DETERIORATING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT DETERIORATING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL DETERIORATING COUNTY ALERT DETERIORATING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 45.00 94 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 42.83 35-50 Of water in the water pan 4(25-35) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 45,122(maize) 21,196(bean) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION In the month of February, 1 mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad, 1.3 mm received in the 2nd dekad and 6.1 mm in the 3rd dekad. The amounts received were very minimal and this was witnessed across all the sub- counties. The current NDVI was also below the LTA and on a deteriorating trend. Fig.1 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County is on a reducing trend compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 31st January 2019 VCI as at 28th February BARINGO County 49.56 42.83 Above normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county reducing trend compared to last month. All sub-counties are experiencing depletion vegetation cover as indicated in the table. Central 65.08 54.54 Eldama 61.66 49.03 Mogotio 48.46 37.46 North 47.36 39.95 South 52.1 47.84 Tiaty 44.74 40.36 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for the County was at 42.83 indicating normal vegetation greenness and fairly comparable to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has slightly reduced in quantity and quality. This attributed to the on the on- going dry spell. The vegetation condition may deteriorate with the continued dry weather conditions but with the onset of the long rains the situation may improve. 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones in the county, these conditions are however normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral and one month in the irrigated crop livelihood zones. Fig.4 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for approximately one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and two months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Fig.5 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were traditional river wells, pans and dams and rivers. Most water pans and dams were at 25 to 35 of their full capacity. Most households are currently using pans, dams and rivers Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair to poor, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one month in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for less than one month due to high temperatures being experienced. Chart 1 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased from 5km to 6.2km as compared to the previous month. The distances above the LTA by 13 percent, Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 4.5 km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 7.1km. Fig.6 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased from 8.1km to 10.4km. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 11.8km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 6.3km. The situation is attributed to declining pastures at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones forcing herders to move further in search of the pasture. Fig.7 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During month, percent households interviewed indicated fair livestock body condition while 22 and 11 reported it was poor and good respectively. This situation was as result of declining pastures across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to deteriorate as the dry spell continues to be experienced. Chart 2 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease was reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. As a response measure, vaccinations are being carried out against the same disease presently. The Baringo County Government is funding the exercise. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.9 litres, which was above the long-term average percent. The milk was mainly from camels and Goats The production was stable in comparison to the previous month. Fig. 8 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have started preparing their farms in anticipation of the onset of the long rains season. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The average price for the medium sized cattle was at Ksh. 16,167 a decrease of 7 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh.17, 385 The price was significantly above the long-term average Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones highest average prices Ksh.17, 750 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, reduced prices attributed declining livestock conditions across all livelihood zones. Fig. 9 4.1.2 Goat Prices The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 24 percent. The price decreased slightly from Ksh.2, 779 to Ksh. 2,680 as compared to the previous month. These prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,100 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 000. The decline in prices was due to farmers increased sales in exchange for cereal and pulses purchase in the local markets. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.39 during the month, which was a slight increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 18. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price Ksh.44 while Irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.30 per Kg. This can be attributed to availability of stocks at household levels and local retailers. Fig.11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long Term Mean(2016-2018) 12,78510,85910,65511,58211,50112,29613,18713,42714,90113,89713,89913,783 17,38516,167 12,29111,83312,18516,03715,73017,00017,65017,09320,63018,38920,74017,876 Price in KSH Cattle prices February 2019 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.46, a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average for the month by 17. These stable prices are attributed to recent seasonal harvests and relative low prevailing maize prices and imports by business into the county from the neighbouring counties. Fig.12 4.2.3 Beans Prices The price per kilogram for beans increased marginally Ksh.109 compared to Ksh.107 of the previous month. The current price is above the long- term average by 2. High prices were as a result of scarcity of the commodity in the county. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.160 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.80 Fig.13 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade reduced by 11 percent from 77.5 to 68.8 in the current month; this was attributed to decrease in the livestock prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are above the long-term average by 64. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 100 while pastoral LZ had the lowest at 65.2. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day reduced marginally as compared to the previous month from 1.6 litres to 1.5 litres. The amount consumed was above the long-term mean by 25 percent. Fig.15 Food Consumption Score There were no households with poor food consumption gap in all livelihoods. proportion households borderline food consumption was 29.4 and 3.3 in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 13 and 87 of the households across the livelihoods have borderline acceptable consumption score respectively. security situation across livelihood zones is still favourable and on a stable trend. This is due to previous seasonal harvests by local farmers and availability of foodstuffs in the local markets from the neighbouring counties. Fig. 16 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 13, which was comparable to the previous month the increase is attributed to decrease of milk production at household level and declining purchasing power across all livelihoods. Komolion, Kolowa and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.8, 23.1 and 22.1 respectively. Fig.17 5.3.2 Health During the reporting month the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea and malaria across livelihood zones. This was due to poor water quality and quantity. No Major disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5.4 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index increased from 13.5 to 14.2 compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 19.5 followed by Pastoral at 15.7. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. The trend is attributed to increasing food prices in the pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Fig.18 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Non-food interventions a) Sustainable Food Systems Program (SFSP) targeting of vulnerable households for social protection support supported by GoK and WFP.) Targeting and beneficiary registered 4500HHs as follows: Tiaty sub county - 1915HHs Mogotio Sub county - 554HHs Baringo South Sub county - 532HHs Central Sub County - 419HHs North Sub county - 1080HHs b) Electronic Registration of tier 1 beneficiary attained 99.6 among the projects for implementation during the first year are; Pasture establishment, Provision of water through water pan and sinking of boreholes and farm ponds equipping. 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There was insecurity in Arabal where Kenya Police Reservists were attacked by bandits. This has led to rise in tensions along the borders. There human-wildlife conflicts where livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table 2 Table 2. 7.2 Migration - limited to migrations of persons There have been cases minimal intra-county livestock migrations reported in the county during the month of February especially within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Deteriorating forage and browse in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro- pastoral posing serious threat to the livestock sector. Drying up of water sources, increased travel distance to water sources may likely lead to high food insecurity at the household level in the pastoral communities as case of migration already reported interrupting household food access, incomes access to milk by the under-fives thus. Spiking malnutrition incidences. Reduction in water resource for domestic use, drinking and sanitation in most parts of the county and government institutions will likely worsen in the coming months if the anticipated long rains are not realized on time. Acute water shortages in learning institutions and health will require immediate intervention by the water sector and partners through water trucking, provision of water treatment chemicals and key WASH messages. The food security in the county is stable but likely to worsen with the continued dry spell. Areas with high malnutrition will require close monitoring and immediate response from the relevant sectors and partners. Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting to inform timely response. Appraisal retargeting and scaling up of resilience building activities by all actors across the county Support more irrigation schemes for Mukutani and Tangulbei as peace enablers Support more dialogue and peace meetings in all the hotpots known for conflict 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Mechanized Desilting and expansion of 24No. Critical water pans during this dry period. Water trucking to schools and health institutions and provision of Water treatment Chemicals to forestall closures. Provision of fueldiesel subsidy to community boreholes Repair of the existing water bowsers Activation the rapid response teams to address the current water crisis in the County Repair of broken down water supply systems and critical boreholes to ensure normalcy. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Stepping up of Vitamin A Supplementation Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Purchase and distribution of livestock feeds to areas experiencing acute pasture shortage especially in Tiaty, Baringo North, South and Mogotio Sub-counties. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals given the excess stocks in parts of the County. Pre-positioning of farm inputs in anticipation of long rains season. REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2019 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of December 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and stable. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (90-100) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and expected to remain stable with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly above the normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal seasonal ranges due to improving livestock body condition. Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 11.3, a decrease as compared 14.6 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 108.2 80-120 VCI-3month 86.29 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(November 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 11.3 15.16 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of December, 85.5 mm,8.9mm and 13.8mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively The amounts received were above the LTA during the first dekad and below the LTA during the second and third dekad for this period. Both temporal spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and improved as compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 28th November VCI as at 28th December BARINGO County 80.11 86.29 The county vegetation greenness is above normal, with all its sub counties in above normal vegetation greenness. The county experienced above normal rains during the month that has impacted positively the vegetation condition for the county. Central 83.91 Eldama 75.17 75.15 Mogotio 82.57 North 77.06 80.15 South 82.35 86.31 Tiaty 79.99 Table.1. Source The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 86.29 which was normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month the current vegetation cover has improved slightly in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to decline due to the cessation of OND rains The vegetation condition is stable and expected to deteriorate throughout the county due to the end of OND rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood Zones these conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for four to five months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 90 to 100 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for four months in irrigated farming livelihood zone In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three months. 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.1km, which was stable as compared to the previous month at 4km. The distances are below the LTA by 28 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 0.8km while Agro pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 5.3 km. This decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances 2.2.3 Livestock access There was a slight decrease in return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points from 5.8Km the previous month to 5.6Km currently. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 5.7 km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.6 km. The situation is attributed to regenerated pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The proportion of households interviewed during the month that reported good and fair livestock body condition were 81 and 19 respectively. This fair to good body condition is occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to remain steady with the on-going short rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of CCP and CBP were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.7 litres a decrease of 10 percent compared to the previous month at 1.9 litres. The decrease was attributed to the displacement households irrigated livelihood zone due to floods. The amount is below the long-term average by 10 percent. The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2 litres while Agro pastoral had the least at 1 litre. Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers in the irrigated livelihood zone have planted short term crops such as green grams and cowpeas in the agro pastoral livelihood zone. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh.20278 a slight decrease of five percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 21,352 The price was above the long-term average by 47 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones posted the highest prices of Ksh. 20,333 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, 000. The slight decrease in prices attributed to increased livestock numbers as farmers sell to get cash during the festive season across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at Ksh.2, 987 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,044. This goat price was above the LTA by 14 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,367 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 000. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was stable as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46. The price was slightly above the long-term average at this time of the year by four percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.47 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.30 per Kg. Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices This can be attributed by the decrease of stocks at household levels and increased stocks at local retailers. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.55 from Ksh. 50 a decrease of 10 percent as compared to the previous month. These prices are attributed increasing maize prices and availability of stocks those held by the retailers. The price was above the long-term average by 8 percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by six percent at Kshs.108 in comparison to the previous month. The price was attributed to decreasing stocks at household across livelihood zones. The current prices are slightly above the long-term average by three percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.123 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4. 3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade reduced slightly as compared to the previous month at 66; this was attributed marginal decrease in the livestock prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade stable in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 93.7 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the least at 52.2. Fig.13. Maize Prices Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.3 litres; which was a decrease of 18 percent compared to the previous month. The milk consumption was highest in the pastoral Livelihood zone at 1.5 litres and lowest in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.7 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by 24 percent. Food Consumption Score Only one percent of the households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 19.4 in pastoral, 3.6 in Agro Pastoral and 15.8 fishing livelihood zones. The current FCS has improved compared to the previous month. Generally, a proportion of 1, 15 and 84 percent of the households across the livelihoods have, poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status There was an improvement in the nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 11.3, as compared to the previous month at 14.6, the situation attributed better consumption household level and stable households purchasing power across livelihoods. Kapenguria, Komolion and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 26.7, 20.8 and 17.5 respectively. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score Fig.19. Muac 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. Occasioned by increased stagnant water bodies and poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index 15.16 slight increase compared to last month at 15.01. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies followed by Pastoral at 16.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.8. The increase in the coping strategies was due to households being affected by the floods across livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority NDMA coordinated and supported multi-stakeholder flood risk assessment in the county to ascertain the extent of damages caused by the ongoing flash floods and prepared detailed flood risk assessment report for possible intervention. Also took part on the East pokot farmers field organized by the Christian Impact Mission Baringo County Government Integrated outreaches and mass screening-Tiaty subcounties-63 sites, BN-8, BS-8 and Mogotio 8 sites Sub-county coordination meetings done in East-pokot on 14th Nov, Tiaty was be done on 27th November Monitoring of outreaches done in November for Tiaty and December for BN, BS and Mogotio SQUAEC survey Done in Tiaty sub counties from 23th-30th November to assess IMAM coverage Nutrition Commodities support supervision and Monitoring in 12 health facilities in the month of November Monthly nutrition commodity prepositioning Implementation of Malezi bora weeks activities which includes vitamin A Supplementation Malaria support supervision Routine disease surveillance for livestock Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation Farmers sensitization of Agroforestry, perennial crop farming like fruits and early maturing crops such as beans, General sensitization on how to reduce post-harvest losses and aflatoxin Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index Kenya Red Cross Society The rapid flood risk assessment conducted jointly with NDMA, County Government of Baringo reveal that communities affected by floods had diverse needs both on short-term and long-term. Due to limited resources available to support all, KRCS conducted internal verification exercise in order to select the most vulnerable households per village so that whatever is available should go to neediest families. The selection criteria focused on the following vulnerable households Person with disability who were completely displaced Elderly who were completely displaced Widowwidowers were completely displaced Pregnant and lactating women Child headed families None shelter beneficiaries Household who does not work or own business and most vulnerable Above all vulnerable household who havent receive support for KRCS 1. Distribution of Non-Food Items (NFIs) After verification of households in all sub counties, few available NFIs were divided and distributed. Below is a summary of HHs reached per sub-county; Baringo South 372 HHs Mogotio 14HHs Eladama Ravine 79 HHs Baringo North 16 HHs Rongai (Nakuru County) 23HHs 2. Distribution of Dignity Kits On 21st Dec 2019, sampled of 10 dignity kits was distributed during donor visit (UNFPA). Health talks were given out on proper usage of sanitary towels. On 23rd Dec 2019 other remaining adolescent girls and women of reproductive age were given in Ndepes ECD and Longewan Dispensary. Total of 25 dignity kits given out. The process involves targeting, registration and finally distribution of the kits. World Vision Kenya 300 beneficiaries were supported with cash transfer (150 tirioko; 100 Kisanana 50 in Bartabwa) Construction of masonary water tank at Esageri School to support children living with disability who suffer a lot during drought emergencies completed. Equipping of Atiar, Maregut, Koiserat and Ayatya BHs completed and residents receiving clean, safe portable water. 100 families supported with one sheep each in kamar 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. Incidences flooding reported in the areas of Ngambo, Labos, Tulongoi, Eldume (Mukutani Ndogo), Kimoliot, Kabunyony, Bondeni, Shauri, Animal Areas Reported Livest Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep Shaabab and Kambi Turkana, Kakabul in Kolowa, Lokis and Ngaina, Sirwe, Lomanira, Rosoga, KapchelukunyKures, Kisanana, Olkowe, along Kerio Valley, Kipsaraman and Kabartonjo. Approximately 493 Households have so far been affected. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The good rains received since the early months of the year coupled with above normal amounts in the first dekad of December have consistently had a positive impact on forage and water availability; with good effects on the livestock body condition, milk availability and overall livestock sale prices. Factors that contributed significantly to improved household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk will likely improve household dietary diversity and the nutritional security. The on-going safety net initiatives by the National; County government and all non state actors targeting pockets of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. The Current food and nutritional security situation will be bolstered further given the prevailing positive weather conditions in the County. Community members will need to exercise great care and safety precautions given the current massive rains and related flooding that may result into destruction of roads and loss access to essential services and death has been reported in Mogotio. The on-going lifeline messages on floods early warning by the National, County government and all non-state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. Baringo being a high risk Malaria and Rift Valley Fever Prone County the Ministry of Health and Livestock should take the necessary preventive measures of alerting the identified key hotspots on the likely Outbreak of these diseases that in the past have caused loss of life in the County. Mainly through awareness creation and prepositioning of the necessary medical supplies to manage outbreaks. The desert locust invasion been reported in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit and Isiolo need to monitored very closely and sector like Agri and livestock need to preposition adequate preventive and control measures to contain the situation in case of any cases reported, 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need to carry out rapid assessment to ascertain the impact of current heavy rains that resulted flash floods in most parts of the county Keenly monitor the desert locust invasion been reported in northern part of the country to avert crop and vegetation losses 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega Dams taking advantages surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of boreholes, constructions of dams Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought Construct contingency boreholes for use only in drought Pre-positioning of water storage facilities targeting vulnerable schools and communities 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for rift valley fever Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops Enhance surveillance and sensitize farmers on threats posed by aflatoxin which claimed three (3) human lives on the eve of chrismas REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2019 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Above average rainfall was received in the month of August 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and on an improving trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (70-90). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity and expected to improve with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range and on an increasing trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and improving due to improving livestock body conditions. Distances to water sources for households currently are within normal seasonal ranges and on a declining trend due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 18, a decrease as compared 20.02 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 84.21 35-50 Of water in the water pan 70-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 14.13 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE AMOUNT RAINFALL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of August, 36.8mm of rainfall was received in the 1st dekad. The amounts received were slightly below Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the sub-counties. The current NDVI was also above the LTA. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal and improving compared to the previous month as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 29th July 2019 VCI as at 29th August 2019 BARINGO County 56.01 84.21 county above normal vegetation greenness with all its sub counties in normal to above normal vegetation greenness. county experienced offseason showers from June that has improved the vegetation condition for the county from severe vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation condition. Central 39.37 Eldama 40.87 74.64 Mogotio 64.39 88.07 North 48.02 76.57 South 58.92 85.66 Tiaty 61.30 89.28 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 84.1, which was above normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to the previous month, the current vegetation cover has improved in quantity and quality. The situation is expected to continue improving due to the recent rains received throughout the county. The vegetation condition is on an improving trend and expected to improve more throughout the county due to the on-going rains. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig. 1. Rainfall performance Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality in irrigated livelihood Zone. While fair to good in Agro Pastoral Pastoral livelihood zones; these conditions are below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for three to four months across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for four to six months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and six months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across livelihoods Rivers, traditional river wells and water pans. Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 90 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral agro- pastoral livelihoods is good, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for six months in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for three to four months due to rains being experienced. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources reduced by 30 from 5.3km to 3.6Km in comparison to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 38 Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 1.7km while Agro pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 5.3km. The decrease in distances is attributed to recharge of water sources across all livelihoods. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points reduced from 7.3Km to 6.4Km as recorded from the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 7.7km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.7km. The situation is attributed to regenerating pastures and water availability at the traditional grazing zones across livelihood zones forcing herders to move back. Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 11 of interviewed households reported poor livestock body condition with 59 indicating fair and 30 reporting good. As occasioned by regeneration of pasture and recharge water sources across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to improve given the current rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases CCPP and CPPR were reported in all livelihoods; the livestock department is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production average produced household per day was stable at 1.5 litres compared to the previous month. The amount is below long-term average by 25 percent. The milk was mainly from camels and cows. Irrigated livelihood average of 2.3 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.7 litres. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently the maize is at tussling stage; while the cowpeas, beans and green grams are being harvested. The acreage under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to reduce in the current cropping season as compared to the long-term average. Fig.9. Livestock body condition Fig.10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 16,000 an increase of 9 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 14,731. The price was above the long-term average by 19 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.24, 000 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.13, 833. The increase prices attributed improving livestock condition across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices The average price of a medium size goat increased by 10 percent at Ksh.2,839 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,564. The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 16 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,433 lowest Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,636. The better prices were as a result of improved livestock body conditions. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram maize was stable at Ksh.55 as compared to the previous month at Ksh.56. The price was above the long-term average at this time of the year by 22 percent. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.57 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.40 per Kg. This can be attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. Fig.11. Cattle Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.61, a slight decrease as compared to the previous month. The price was above the long- term average for the month by These prices attributed appreciating maize prices and diminishing stocks at household level and those held by the retailers 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent from Ksh.139 to currently Ksh. 126. The price was attributed to the scarcity of the commodity across livelihood zones. The current prices are above the long-term average by 20 percent. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded highest average prices Ksh.137 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4.3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were at 52 a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 46 this was attributed increase in the livestock prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 5 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 68.9 while Agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 43.8. Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated Livelihood zone at 2.3 and lowest in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.2 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by17. . Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps only in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The proportion of households borderline consumption was 26.7 and 10.3 in pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones. The current FCS has improved as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 2, 19 and 79 of the households across livelihoods poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones has improved as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and increase in purchasing power across all livelihood zones. The situation is expected improve due to the on-going rains across the county thus increase in availability of vegetables. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 18, a decrease as compared to the previous month, the situation is attributed to increase in milk production and consumption at household level together with improved households purchasing power across livelihoods. Komolion, Kapenguria Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score Kolowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 33, 30 and 27.1 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea across livelihood zones and major malaria outbreak in Tiaty Sub County. This was due to poor hygiene practices at Household Level. No other major human disease outbreaks were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index decreased marginally at 14.13 as compared to last month at 14.35. Households Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 28.3 followed by Pastoral at 14.2. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3.4. The high coping strategies in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone was due to increased tensions in the area that has disrupted households economic activities. Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Monitoring and evaluation of drought response water storage prepositioning tanks. Commissioning of Plesian drought preparedness project for the Plesian center of excellence at Plesian primary school. Organized for coordination meetings and monitoring of drought situation in the county Coordination and support to the food security assessment exercise and performance of the long rain and its impact on general food security situation in the county Support to the multi-sector long rains food security assessment. Leah and Osman to provide information Baringo County Government SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program, finalized the mop up exercise for beneficiary Registration and community sensitization of the SFSP rollout to various targeted areas in preparation for project implementation Purchase and installation of 10,000liters capacity plastic water tanks complete with concrete slab and roof water harvesting in 6 schools, 1 community borehole and a police post with support from Fin Church Aid Routine operation and maintenance for community boreholes and intakes Limited water trucking targeting institutions Routine disease surveillance for both human and livestock Get data from Kangogo Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Project Support to livestock vaccination program against FMD PPR (100,000 doses for FMD, 750,000 doses for PPR) Distributed of poultry incubators to six pastoral field schoolspasture production groups for Income Generation Activities (Kamar, Mugurin, Salabani, Kipcherere, Lelmen Kapkalelwa Anglican Development Service (ADS) Routine monitoring of ongoing climate change resilience project in Ribko, Loyamorok and parts of Silale ward Action Aid Baringo county government climate change adaptation plan development 2018-2022 supported by ActionAid. World Vision Kenya Carried out beneficiary identification, selection and registration for Lokis and Mogotio, a total of 250 beneficiaries were successfully identified Procured water storage tanks for 2 schools Conducted evaluation for Esangeri SFD septic tanks Started the engagement of county department of water for Kamar solar project Distribution of farm inputs (seedling) to farmers a long Mario River in Tirioko Kenya Red Cross Society Carried out routine medical outreaches and managed to reach a total of 1239 persons with 566 pregnant and lactating mothers and 995 under five children through nutrition services 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC. A total of 4,660 households were reached; Maize- 88,248Kgs (88.2 MT), Beans- 38,000Kgs (38.0 MT) and Cooking Oil- 540liters (20pcs20l, 14pcs10L b) Limited Water trucking to ECD centers and health facilities by BCG 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Tension remains high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North following incidents of cattle rustling. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month; however, the livestock are still at the dry season convergence zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The stability in the in the on-going rains, has resulted into rejuvenated forage and browse and recharge of water sources thus reduced water access distance for both livestock and households in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods. This situation coupled with improving livestock body condition and milk availability and increasing livestock prices will likely enhance household incomes and purchasing power and impact positively on households. Equally the good performance of the on farm crops more so availability of local vegetable and harvests of beans and access to green maize will enhance dietary diversity an decrease the current malnutrition among the under-fives. This situation will however be highly dependent the performance of the on going rains in the County and the control and management of the Fall Army Warm challenge. The on-going relief food provision and all other safety net initiatives by ACTED, Action Aid, World vision and World Food Program should be sustained across the most vulnerable households in the hotspot livelihoods to ensure the safety of lives and livelihoods in the affected zones. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, recovery, monitoring and reporting. Regular Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps. Support inter-community peace building activities and meeting on existing hot spots 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of 4 Big dams for domestic and irrigation water use Construction and Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies systems Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo Kiserian Sheep Capacity strengthening for community water resource management and intakecatchment protection committees Capacity building on Wash Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought Water Bowser servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs Scale up mass screening 80 sites in Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South and Mogotio. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. Provision for rain water harvesting in schools hard hit by water shortages during dry spell Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Osman Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Support pasture establishment and management for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities Construct strategic hay store for communities and farmers that engage in pasture production in Baringo South, Baringo North, Mogotio, Tiaty 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Pre- positioning of farm inputs provision to support households in the irrigated livelihood zones. Dissemination of live messages to communities on post-harvest management strategies. Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of demonstration Materials and training (Traps, pheromones, and chemical and sprayers) REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2019 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2019 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators show fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges. Below average rainfall was received in the month of April 2019. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are below normal and on a declining trend compared to the last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (5- 10 ). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity but expected to worsen with the continuing dry spell. Livestock migrations were reported in pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below normal the seasonal and on a worsening trend. No Drought related Livestock deaths were reported across all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and worsening however many households can still afford major food commodities. Distances to water sources for households currently are above normal ranges with the Pastoral livelihood zones being mostly affected. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 14.8, an increase as compared 13.8 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households still within normal ranges but on a worsening trend. PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP ALERT DETERIORATING COUNTY ALARM WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 19.36 35-50 Of water in the water pan 3(5-10) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()(by July 2018) 3,000(Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 14.8 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of April, 10.5mm, 5mm and 66.5mm of rainfall was received in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekad respectively. The amounts received in the 1st and 2nd were below the LTA while the rainfall received in the 3rd dekad was above the LTA. Both temporal and spatial distribution was poor across all the sub-counties. The current NDVI was also below the LTA and on a deteriorating trend. 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was below normal and on declining trend compared to the month of March 2019 as shown in the table below. COUNTY County VCI as at 25th March 2019 VCI as at 29th April 2019 BARINGO County 29.47 19.39 Below normal vegetation conditions experienced Baringo county compared to last month. All sub-counties are experiencing depletion vegetation cover as indicated in the table. Central 37.48 22.65 Eldama 28.42 18.45 Mogotio 26.31 12.97 North 24.39 17.19 South 35.22 Tiaty 29.03 20.44 Table.1. Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 19.36 indicating below normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA. In comparison to previous month current vegetation cover has reduced in quantity and quality. This attributed to the on the on-going dry spell. Fig.2 The vegetation condition is on a deteriorating throughout the county due to the continued dry weather conditions, the situation is expected to worsen due failed long rains Fig.3 Fig. 1 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality in agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones in the county; while poor in the pastoral livelihood zones, these conditions are below normal at this time of the year. The pasture is expected to last for less than one month across all livelihood zones. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones; the condition is above the normal seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for approximately one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and two months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were traditional river wells, boreholes, pans and dams, and rivers. Most water pans and dams were at 5 to 10 of their full capacity. Households are currently using Traditional River Wells and boreholes Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is poor, which is abnormal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one month in irrigated farming livelihood zone. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for less than one month due to high temperatures and strong winds being experienced. Fig.4 Fig.5 Fig.6 1.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 8.3km to 8.5Km as compared to the previous month. The distances are above the LTA by 73. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least average distance of 3km km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 12km in Kollowa and Ngoron. The increases in distances are attributed to drying up of 90 of the water pans and other open water sources in all livelihood zones. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased from 10.4km to 12km recorded the previous month. The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 12.8km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 8.7km. The situation is attributed to declining pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones forcing herders to move further in search of the pasture. Fig.7 Fig.8 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month 56 of households interviewed reported poor livestock body condition with 33 and 11 indicating fair and good respectively. This situation was as result of dwindling pastures and water access across livelihood zones. The situation is likely to deteriorate as the dry spell continues to be experienced. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Outbreak of Anthrax was reported in Kailel in Baringo South while Foot and Mouth and CPPR were reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The livestock departed is currently carrying out vaccinations against these diseases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was 1.5 litres a slight reduction of 6 percent as compared to the previous month, however the amount was similar to the long-term average. The milk was mainly from camels and Goats. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have not planted theirs farms as they are still waiting the onset of the long rains season. The few who planted their crops failed to germinate due to low soil moisture. The acreage under both rain fed and irrigated agriculture is anticipated to reduce drastically. Fig.9 Fig.10 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The average price for a medium sized cattle was at Ksh. 16,161 fairly comparable to Ksh.16,167 the previous month. The price was significantly above the long-term average by 52. Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest average prices of Ksh.19,000 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15, 184. The decline in prices was attributed to declining livestock body conditions across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices The average price of a medium size goat decreased marginally from Ksh. 2,552 to Ksh.2, 477 as compared to the previous month. The average price of a goat was above the LTA by 20 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,029 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1, 900. The reduction in prices was due to farmers increased sales in exchange for cereal and pulses purchase in the local markets and in search of school fees. 4.2 CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The average price for kilogram maize was Ksh.44 during the month, which was a slight increase as compared to the previous month. The price was below the long-term average at this time of the year by 12. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price Ksh.50 while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.37 per Kg. This can be attributed to availability of stocks at household levels and at local retailers. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price of a kilogram of Posho was at Ksh.51, a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. Fig.11 Fig.12 Fig.13 The price was below the long-term average for the month by 11. These stable prices are attributed to relative low prevailing maize prices and imports by retailers into the county from the neighbouring counties. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans was at Ksh.105 compared to Ksh. 111 the previous month; the slight reduction in prices was attributed to the availability of relief food in the pastoral livelihood zones. The current prices are below the long-term average. Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest prices of Ksh.160 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 4.3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade decreased by 22 from 62.5 the previous month to 48.9 currently; this was attributed to decrease in the livestock prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are slightly above the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 85.1 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 46.8. Fig.15 Fig.16 Fig.14 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day steady at 1.4 litres. The milk consumption was highest in the irrigated livelihood zone at 1.8 litres. While 1.3 litres and 1 litre in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones respectively. The amount consumed was above the long-term mean by 7 percent. Food Consumption Score There were households with poor food consumption gaps across all livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 43, 43.3 and 33.3 in Agro-pastoral, Pastoral and irrigated Livelihood Zones respectively. The current FCS has declined as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 18, 42 and 40 of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. security situation across livelihood zones has deteriorated; however the situation is expected to improve due to the on-going response interventions across the county and availability of foodstuffs in the local markets from the neighbouring counties. 5.3 Health and Nutrition Status The proportion of sampled children under five years of age at risk of malnutrition was at 14.8, an increase as compared to the previous month, the increase is attributed to decrease production consumption and reduction in the number of food groups consumed at household level together with declining household purchasing power across livelihoods. Ribko, Kolowa and Komolion, wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 31.1, 26.9 and 22 respectively. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period the commonly reported illnesses were diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory infections across livelihood zones. This was due to poor water quality and quantity and dust occasioned by strong winds. No major human disease outbreaks were reported during the month. Fig.17 Fig.18 Fig.19 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index increased from 15.13 to 15.9 compared to last month. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 22.1 followed by Pastoral at 17.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.9. This trend is attributed to increasing food prices in the pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions a) SFSP (Sustainable Food Systems Program targeting of vulnerable households for social protection support supported by GoK and WFP.) Targeting and beneficiary registered 4500HHs as follows: Tiaty sub county- 1915HHs Mogotio Sub county- 554HHs B. South Subcounty - 532HHs Central SubCounty- 419HHs North Subcounty- 1080HHs Electronic Registration of tier 1 beneficiary attained 99.6 among the projects for implementation during the first year are; Pasture establishment, Provision of water through water pan and sinking of boreholes and farm ponds equipping. 6.2 Food interventions a) Food aid in all livelihood Zones by GOKKRC. A total of 4,660 household were reached; Maize- 88,248Kgs (88.2 MT), Beans- 38,000Kgs ( 38.0 MT) and Cooking Oil- 540liters (20pcs20l, 14pcs10L b) Water trucking to institutions and health facilities by NDMABCG 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were no major insecurity incidences in county though still there are tensions along the borders. Human-wildlife conflicts where a number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table 1 Table 1. 7.2 Migration There have been cases intra-county livestock migrations reported during the month of April especially within the Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Livestock herds have moved from pastoral livelihood zone to Arabal, Paka Hills, Rugus, Kosechei, Kapau and Mochongoi. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Dwindling forage and browse, drying up of water sources has resulted in increased water access distance for both livestock and households in most parts of the county particularly, the pastoral and Agro-pastoral posing serious threat to the livestock sector. This situation coupled with declining milk availability thus increasing malnutrition among the under-fives, declining livestock body condition and subsequent reduction in market prices will likely affect the overall County food and nutrition security across Livelihoods. This situation will be made even worse following the delayed onset of the long rains season in the County. The current situation will require urgent multi-sector response strategies and resource mobilization and allocation more so from the Baringo County government focusing on overall health and nutrition integrated outreaches, WASH through provision of clean portable water and water treatment chemicals, provision of livestock feeds and accelerated commercial off-take. The on-going relief food provision operations and all other safety net initiatives should be scaled up and sustained across the vulnerable households in the hotspot livelihoods to ensure safety of lives and livelihoods. Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Strengthening drought status CSG surveillance and reporting for inform timely resource mobilization, response, monitoring and reporting. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Mechanized Desilting and expansion of 24 No. Critical water pans during this dry period. Scale up water trucking to schools and health institutions and provision of Water treatment Chemicals to forestall closures. Provision of fueldiesel subsidy to community high yielding boreholes. Repair and servicing of the existing water bowsers Allocation of resources to the rapid response teams to address the current water crisis in the County. Repair of broken down water supply systems and critical boreholes to ensure normalcy. 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Stepping up of Vitamin A Supplementation Scale up mass screening in Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Provision of School meals programme to the ECDEs to reduce pressure on the regular school meals programme in primary schools. 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector. Disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations. Provision of livestock feeds to the vulnerable herds in the hotspots. Purchase and distribution of livestock feeds to areas experiencing acute pasture shortage especially in Tiaty, Baringo North, South and Mogotio Sub-counties. Promotion of accelerated commercial livestock off-take 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Pre- positioning of farm inputs provision in anticipation of the long rains season onset. REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range."
        },
        "DEWS_2020": {
            "Baringo 2020 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2020 SEPTEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS SDrought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received off season showers during the month The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. Majority of households have acceptable food consumption score. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 96.55 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 13.35 11.27 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the performance of the rains was slightly above normal compared to the previous seasons. Off season showers were occasionally reported in different parts of the county mostly during the first dekad. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution On average, the county received more rains in the first decad of the month compared to the previous seasons, with about 180 parcent of the normal rains being realised (Figure 1). Thereafter, the amounts received declined to their normal levels in the last two decads of the month. The normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) shows that vegetation conditions are above normal compared to the long term mean (LTA). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) vegetation greenness depicted vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in the county (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 96.55 . The current VCI is at its highest maximum value ever recorded for the month in the county, surpassing both the long term average and the maxima values (Figure 3). The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the better part of this year. The occasional showers reported in the month have assisted in stabilizing vegetation conditions. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones. These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones .The condition is normal as compared to previous seasons at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index in Baringo Figure 3: Vagetation condition index trend: Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 4). Most water pans and dams were at 90 percent to 100 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable during the month at 2.8km, in comparison to the previous month at 2.5km (Figure 5). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 2.8km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihood zones due to the extended long rains and off season showers. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was stable at 4.7km in comparison to the previous month at 4.4 km (Figure 6). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across all livelihood zones. Figure 4: State of water sources Figure 5: Trekking distance to water sources Figure 6: Return distance from grazing areas to watering points Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the impact of the extended long rains season on forage and water availability. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable for at least three months from now. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in the county, which is normal. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.8 litres, a slight increase compared to the previous month (Figure 7). Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average of milk produced at 2.5 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.8 litres.The current milk production is below LTA by 21 parcent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers are concluding harvesting of maize and beans crops from their farms across the county. Figure 7: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle increased by four percent from Ksh 17,759 the previous month to Ksh 18,519 currently (Figure 8). The price was above the long-term average by 17 percent. Fishing livelihood zone posted the highest price Ksh.25,000 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,806. The improved prices was partly due to partial reopening of livestock markets coupled prevailing good body condition.. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.3,406, an increase of 17 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,906 (Figure 9). The price was above the LTA by 11 percent.The prices highest irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,633 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,500. The price increament is as a result of prevailing good body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize reduced by four percent from Ksh. 41 to Ksh. 39, as compared to the previous month. (Figure 10). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by 11 percent. The drop in price can be attributed to the ongoing maize harvesting both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.42 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure.8: Goat Prices Figure 8: Cattle prices Figure 9: Goat prices Figure 10: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.47, a slight reduction as compared to the previous month at Ksh.49. (Figure 11). The price was below the long-term average by 11 percent.The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks both at household level and traders. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans decreased by 10 percent from Kshs.120 to Ksh. 107 currently (Figure 12). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of the commodity in the county. The current prices are relatively similar to the long-term average Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.120 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4. 3 Terms of Trade terms trade improved comparison to the previous month. The terms are currently at 86.3 from 70.7 previously, (Figure attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 62.5. Figure 11: Posho prices Figure 12: Beans prices Figure 13: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.7litres, which was an increase as compared to the previous month litres(Figure consumption was highest in the irrigated livelihood zone at 2.4 litres and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at 0.5 litres. The amount consumed was below the long- term. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, about 1.1, 23 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 24 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 15). This implies that they are skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 33 parcent of the households have un acceptable food consumption score. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable as 86.7 parcent of the sampled children were not malnurished while 9.2 and 1.1 parcent were moderately and severly malnourished respectively (Figure 16). The situation was attributed to availability of milk and food at household level Figure 14: Milk consumption Figure 15: Food consumption score Figure 16: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 11.27 by September, the situation is stable as compared to the previous month Figure Households pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.7 followed by agro pastoral livelihood zone at 10.6. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.8. Overall, households in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months . Figure 17: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions County government During the reporting month, Baringo county Resilience Programme (BCGWFP); Technical backstopping of mentors to Youth in agribusiness programme and community projects. Distribution of Honey value chain haversting gear with Bee hives to 3 Youth Groups. WFP supported 4298 HHs with Cash tranfers amounting to 22,087,053 as per the current food basket The HHs are engaged with creation of productive assets in 27 community projects at 18 wards. Community projects of pasture value chain are harvesting pasture seed of boma Rhodes and Cenchrus cilliaries. DRM policy review was also undertaken during the month under review. World Vission In promoting hand washing practices in communities as a contribution towards National and County Governments efforts of preventing spread of Covid-19 pandemic, World Vision supported in procurement and distribution of seventy hand washing kits that were issued to 12 health facilities, 52 churches and 6 public places in Baringo North Sub County. A further Fifty units were procured in East Pokot and Mogotio Sub Counties to be distributed in local health facilities, churches, markets and water points. World Vision supported a total of 650 households in Baringo South and Baringo North Sub Counties through direct cash transfer of Kshs 2.4m cash disbursement for purchase of food and other basic necessities during current Covid-19 pandemic period. 780 more households were mapped in East Pokot sub counties for further cash transfer support. Through Kenya Big Dream grant, the organization supported 600 girls from vulnerable families with dignity kits. The distribution targeted vulnerable girls from Cana Girls rescue centre, AIC childrens home, Rotu centre and more girls who have been reintegrated with their families due to closure of institutions to curb the spread of COVID-19. In Baringo North Sub County, World Vision commissioned the construction of 5No. masonry tanks and pipeline extensions totaling 79.8km covering Kipkaren, Ayatya, Kamulot, Atiar and Koiserat water projects with a view to enabling children and their families access potable water within 500m and or 30 minutes turnaround time. In Mogotio Sub County, construction works of 5.3km pipeline systems and construction of 3No. water kiosks were completed during the period. This is to be commissioned as soon as installation of borehole submersible pump is completed. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No major issues related to insecurity were reported during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks will remain above normal for the next one month following a successful crop harvest while household consumption rates will remain relatively higher than normal as there are more people to feed at homes following closure of schools, a consequence of covid 19 restrictions. Pasture and browse conditions will remain in good conditions for the next one month. This will therefore sustain the existing good livestock body condition and consequently stabilizing milk production. Household milk consumption is therefore expected to remain within seasonal range for the next one month. Livestock prices are expected to rise steadily in the next one month as livestock markets are being reopened gradually while maize prices will decline gradually following replenishement of household stocks as a result of a successful crop harvest. Household incomes will therefore improve through livestock sales. Due to this scenario, terms of trade are expected to be good for pastoral households. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain minimal as the majority of households are consuming good diet. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection across the county should be enhanced. Supply of Water treatment equipment like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs is needed especially for the displaced populations due to the impact of floods. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Continous engagement with caregivers on how best to make use of family muac tapes is needed so as to improve the quality of nutrition data. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Hay harvesting, bailing and storage should be promoted given that there is a possibility of the county having drought next year following the prediction of a depressed short rains season by the meteorological department Improvement of marketing infrastructure together with provision of sanitation fascilities in the markets. This will enhance smooth market operations with minimal risk of spread of covid 19 pandemic. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Equipping of farmers with proper knowledge and skills on how to minimize post harvest loses at this time when they have concluded harvesting of their crops from farms. Farmers are advised to invest in proper storage fascilities to minimize grain losses.",
            "Baringo 2020 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2020 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS SDrought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable during the short rains season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range apart from the irrigated livelihood zone. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 95.76 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 13.35 11.27 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the performance of the rains was above normal compared to the previous seasons. In the highland areas (Mostly mixed farming livelihood zone), the onset of the short rains season was early in the first dekad of October while in low lands ( Mostly pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones) the onset was normal during the third dekad of October. Rainfall continuity is fair as most parts of the county have recorded at least two wet days of rainfall in a week. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received above normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 117 parcent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was good across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is above long term means for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is above the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This implies that the cumulative total amount of rainfall received by October 2020 is much higher than the long term mean. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). This has been contributed by the above normal rains the county has been receiving for the whole of this year. The trend for the current VCI is above long term mean and lies within the maximum values for the month, signifying that vegetation conditions are very good (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones .The condition is normal as compared to seasonal range for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 80 percent to 90 percent of their capacity. Water quality quantity across pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones due to the ongoing rains. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable during the month at 2.8km, in comparison to the previous month at 2.5km (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 2.8km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihood zones due to the ongoing rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was stable at 4.7 km in comparison to the previous month at 4.4 km (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water sources Figure 6: Water access Figure 7: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the impact of the extended long rains season that has just ended. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable for at least three months from now. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Eruption of CCPP was reported county-wise. PPR was reported in all livelihoods except Mixed farmintg zone. Blue Toungue disease was reported in irrigated cropping and agro-pastoral zones in Baringo south and Tiaty sub counties 3.1.3 Milk Production average produced household per day was at 1.8 litres, which was similar to the previous month(Figure 8). The milk was mainly cattle goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average of milk produced of 2.5 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.8 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by25 percent and this has been contributed mainly by migration of livestock from the irrigated livelihood zone due to flood menace. The livestock have been moved to safer areas thus leaving households with fewer animals to milk. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers have harvested their maize in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. They are preparing their farms for the short rains season although many farms have been submerged by lake Baringo in the irrigated livelihood zone. Monitoring of desert locusts is ongoing. Figure 8: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was a minimal increase in average price for medium-sized cattle as compare to the previous month at Ksh.18,759 (Figure 9). The price was above the long-term average by 16 percent. Irrigated livelihood posted highest prices Ksh.25,333 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.17,125. The improved prices was partly due to partial reopening of markets, coupled by the prevailing good livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.3,026, a slight decrease by 11 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,406 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by eight percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,750 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,633. The price stability is as a result of prevailing good body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize was stable at Ksh. 39, as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by nine percent. The stability in prices can be attributed to the ongoing maize harvesting both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.41 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle prices Figure 10: Goat prices Figure 11: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.47, a slight reduction as compared to the previous month at Ksh.49. (Figure 12). The price was below the long-term average by 11 percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks both at household level and traders stores. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased slightly by seven percent from Kshs.107 to Ksh. 114 currently (Figure 13). The price increase was attributed to purchasing of the planting materials in the county. The current prices are relatively similar to the long-term average Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.120 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade declined slightly in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 77.1 kgs of maize currently compared to 86.3 kgs the previous month (Figure 14). This was attributed to decreased goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long- average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 95 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 70.2. Figure 12: Posho prices Figure 13: Beans prices Figure 14:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.6 litres, which slight decrease compared to the previous month at 1.7 litres(Figure 15). The milk consumption was highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.4 litres and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at 0.6 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, a proportion of 1.1, 23 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. pastoral livelihood zone, about 32 percent of the households do not have acceptable consumption (Figure 16). This implies that they are skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable. About 88.6 parcent of the sampled children were not malnurished while 8.6 and parcent moderately severely malnourished respectively (Figure 17). The situation was attributed to availability of milk and food at household level Figure 15: Milk consumption Figure 16: Food consumption score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant water bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. With regard to Covid 19 cases, a total of 80 cases have been reported in Baringo so far from 1288 tests done giving a positivity rate of 6.2 parcent. The county attack rate is 12100,000 population. Baringo Central has the highest burden of cases accounting for 3880 (47.5 parcent). About 56 recoveries have been reported, 35 from isolation centers and 21 from Home Based Care (HBC). Currently there are 12 active Covid-19 patients, nine on home based care and three on isolation at Mogotio sub county hospital. About 10 health care workers have contracted COVID-19 . Four deaths have been reported giving a case fatality rate of five parcent. Males are 5780 (71 parcent) and females 2380 (29 parcent). Majority of the cases are in the 30-39 age group 3180 (39 parcent) with the youngest being 2 years old and the eldest 76 years. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 10.2 by October, the situation is stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.2 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 10.6. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 4.3. Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past five months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 18: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions National Drought Management Authority(NDMA) The Cabinet Secretary for Devolution Hon. Eugine Wamalwa led Couty stakeholders in launching of the boarding fascilities at the Plessian primary school in Tiaty sub county as well as call for proposal project on livelihood support being implemented by Self Help Africa. The boarding fascilities will improve access to education by the local children who often miss classesdue to challenges associated with drought and conflict issues. The NDMA headquotars with the support of World Food program conducted a capacity building workshop for the sub county staff on dissermination of food security assessment reports. The objective of the workshop was to improve on dissermination strategies being applied in the county so as to have a wider reach for early action in saving lives and livelihoods. There was an inter county planning meeting between Baringo and Laikipia counties for the purpose of coming up with an intergrated preparedness project. The meeting brought together the Deputy County commissioners, Assistant County Comissioners, Ward Administrators, area chiefs, community elders and some DRR committee members who were sensitized on the project. A draft MOU for resource sharing between LNC and the beneficiary communities was developed. The NDMA headquoters organized a two workshop on participatory scenario planning whereby county stakeholders were tusked with developing key sector messages for the current short rains season. The county teams were asked to identify effective channels for the disermination of the messages to the targeted audience. Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) Conducted covid -19 sensitization across the county using public address system and in schools by Kenya Red Cross volunteers reaching over 30,000 people Under USAID OFDA Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction, Kenya Red Cross conducted community led total sanitation ( CLTS) follow ups in eight villages (Mbechot, Ngoina,Parkarin,Elkateyo,Kipkebuton among others) Under USAID OFDA Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction, to build communities resilience, Kenya Red Cross conducted training for two pastoralist groups in Kisanana and Loyamorok on Rangeland management, pasture development, fodder preservation and packing reaching 52 pastoralist farmers Registration of flood affected households in camps at Loruk, Uwanja ndege and Kambi Samaki areas. Distributions of NFIs to IDPs households in Kampi ndege camp Nutrition( Integrated Medical Outreaches ) in Tiaty West for six sites and Tiaty East for four sites on Immunization, Nutrition services, treatment of minor illness and Covid -19 sensitization County government There was a sensitization workshop for county technical staff on desert locust monitoring, control and reporting. On matters of Covid-19 management, Contact tracing with testing and follow up of contacts is ongoing while purchasing of additional PPEs for healthcare providers is being done. Follow up of patients on home based care, risk communication and public health awareness creation, enforcement of Covid-19 regulations and requirements are being done concurrently. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement About 21 schools in Baringo South sub county ave been affected by the rising water levels of Lake Baringo. Both teachers and students have been displaced thus necessitating looking for alternative arrangements to accommodate them. A second wave of Covid- 19 disease that started in the first week of October is being experienced in the county. The curve is currently steeply rising after having flattened between the month of August and September. Baringo Central sub-county leads in the number of cases at 3880 (47.5 parcent) followed by Marigat sub-county 2080(25 parcent). Tiaty East and Tiaty West have reported no case. A total of 14 out of 30 wards have reported cases with Kabarnet ward having the highest number of cases with 2980 (36 parcent), followed by Marigat ward 1880 (23 parcent). 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks are expected to remain stable and above long term means for the next one month due to the concluded harvesting of crops in the county. Traders stocks will also remain stable and above long term means due to stable supplies of cereals both within and without the county. Forage conditions are expected to remain above normal conditions for the next one month due to the cumulative impacts of the rains and therefore stabilising livestock body conditions. This is therefore expected to sustain near normal milk production with the exemption of the irrigated livelihood zone whose milk production will continue to be below long term means due to impact of floods that has resulted in the migration of animals to safer grounds. Livestock prices are expected to be above long term means while cereal prices are expected to be below seasonal range, resulting in better terms of trade mostly for pastoral and agro pastoral households. With the exemption of irrigated livelihood zone, milk consumption is expected to remain near normal, thus stabilising nutrition status of household members particularly the children. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection across the county should be enhanced. Supply of Water treatment equipment like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs is needed especially for the displaced populations around the lakes due to the impact of floods. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Continous engagement with caregivers on how best to make use of family muac tapes is needed so as to improve the quality of nutrition data. Residents should continue to strictly adhere to Covid-19 protocols in order for the health personnel to be able to control a second wave of infection. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Hay harvesting, bailing and storage should be promoted given that there is a possibility of the county having drought next year following the prediction of a depressed short rains season by the meteorological department. Farmers should take advantage of the existing surplus forage in preparing for the lean period ahead. Improvement of marketing infrastructure together with provision of sanitation fascilities in the markets. This will enhance smooth market operations with minimal risk of spread of covid 19 pandemic. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Equipping of farmers with proper knowledge and skills on how to minimize post harvest loses at this time when they have concluded harvesting of their crops from farms. Farmers are advised to invest in proper storage fascilities to minimize grain losses",
            "Baringo 2020 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2020 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS SDrought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable during the short rains season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range apart from the irrigated livelihood zone. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges but stable. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 90.44 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 12.39 12.02 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the performance of the rains was poor to fair. In the highland areas, rainfall performance was fair while in the low land areas which are mostly pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, rainfall performance was poor. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 80 parcent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was good across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is above long term means for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is above the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This implies that the cumulative total amount of rainfall received by November 2020 is much higher than the long term mean. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). This has been contributed by the above normal rains the county has been receiving for the whole of this year. The trend for the current VCI is above long term mean and lies within the maximum values for the month, signifying that vegetation conditions are very good (Figure 4). 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones. These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones .The condition is normal as compared to seasonal range for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 4:Vagetation condition index trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across livelihood zones were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 70 percent to 80 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones due to the ongoing rains. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.4 km an increased of 13 as compared to the previous month at three km (Figure 6). The distances are similar to the long term average (LTA). Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.3 km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihood zones due to the impact of the previous rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by18 percent at 6 km in comparison to the previous month at 5.1 km (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5.8 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded shortest average distance kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water sources Figure 6: Water access Figure 7 Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable for at least three months from now. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.8 litres, which was similar to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of milk produced of 4 litres while pastoral had the least at 2.1 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 22 percent and this has been contributed mainly by migration of livestock from the irrigated livelihood zone due to flooding menace. The livestock have been moved to safer areas thus leaving households with fewer animals to milk. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers have harvested their maize in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some farmers have prepared their farms for planting even though the season has not been favourable for rain fed agriculture. Figure 8: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was a minimal increase in average price for medium-sized cattle as compared to the previous month at Ksh.19,333 (Figure 9). The price was above the long-term average by 18 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,167 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,683. The improved prices was partly due to partial reopening of markets, coupled by the prevailing good livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.3,075, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,026 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by eight percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,000 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,583. The price stability is as a result of the prevailing good livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize was stable at Ksh. 39, as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by eight percent. The stability in prices can be attributed to the ongoing maize harvesting both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.41 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.32 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle prices Figure 10: Goat prices Figure 11: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.47, similar as compared to the previous month. (Figure 12). The price was below the long-term average by eight percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks both at household level and traders stores. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased slightly by three percent from Kshs.114 to Ksh. 118 currently (Figure 13). price increase attributed purchasing of the planting materials in the county. The current prices are relatively similar to the long-term average. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.123 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade increased slightly in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 77.6 kgs of maize currently compared to 74.6 kgs the previous month (Figure 14). This has been attributed to by declining maize prices in comparison to goat prices.. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 93.6 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 73. Figure 12: Posho prices Figure 13: Beans prices Figure 14:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.6 litres, which was stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county has an Acceptable Consumption Score at 42.38. The proportion of 1.9, 23.4 and 74.6 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 34.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable consumption (Figure 16). This implies that they are skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable. About 89.3 percent of the sampled children were not malnourished while 7.3 and 3.4 percent were moderately and severely malnourished respectively (Figure 17). The situation was attributed to availability of milk and food at household level. Figure 15: Milk consumption Figure 16: Food consumption score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant water bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 12.02 by November, the situation is stable as compared to the previous month (Figure Households pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 13.4 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 13.3. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.5. Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past five months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 18: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) Conducted community managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) training for 16 county Government and GoK staff in Baringo county in conjunction with NDMA DRM on CMDRR approach Conducted training to 16 county government and National Government on Kenya Inter- Agency Rapid Assessment (KIRA) Conducted Community Engagement (CEA) to communities we are working with,eg pasture committe CMDRR committe Conducted Knowledge Attitude Practice (KAP) assessment survey on livestock extension services in Baringo county Conducted CLTS follow ups in 8 villages in Baringo South,North,Tiaty West and Mogotio Rehabilitation of Kagir borehole in Saimosoi Ward County government There was a sensitization workshop for county technical staff on desert locust monitoring, control and reporting. On matters of Covid-19 management, Contact tracing with testing and follow up of contacts is ongoing while purchasing of additional PPEs for healthcare providers is being done. Follow up of patients on home based care, risk communication and public health awareness creation, enforcement of Covid-19 regulations and requirements are being done concurrently. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement About 21 schools in Baringo South sub county ave been affected by the rising water levels of Lake Baringo. Both teachers and students have been displaced thus necessitating looking for alternative arrangements to accommodate them. Insecurity issues were reported in kapedo along the Baringo Turkana Border. 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks are expected to remain stable and above long term means for the next one month due to the concluded harvesting of crops in the county. Traders stocks will also remain stable and above long term means due to stable supplies of cereals both within and without the county. Forage conditions are expected to remain above normal conditions for the next one month due to the cumulative impacts of the rains and therefore stabilising livestock body conditions. This is therefore expected to sustain near normal milk production with the exemption of the irrigated livelihood zone whose milk production will continue to be below long term means due to impact of floods that has resulted in the migration of animals to safer grounds. The water availability and access is expected to start deteriorating due to poor performance of the short rains season. Access distances are likely to increase especially in pastoral areas. Livestock prices are expected to be above long term means while cereal prices are expected to be below seasonal range, resulting in better terms of trade mostly for pastoral and agro pastoral households. With the exemption of irrigated livelihood zone, milk consumption is expected to remain near normal, thus stabilising nutrition status of household members particularly the children. Nutritio status is expected to remain stable due to availability of food and milk at the household level. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection across the county should be enhanced. Supply of Water treatment equipment like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs is needed especially for the displaced populations around the lakes due to the impact of floods. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Continous engagement with caregivers on how best to make use of family muac tapes is needed so as to improve the quality of nutrition data. Residents should continue to strictly adhere to Covid-19 protocols in order for the health personnel to be able to control a second wave of infection. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Hay harvesting, bailing and storage should be promoted given that there is a possibility of the county having drought next year following the prediction of a depressed short rains season by the meteorological department. Farmers should take advantage of the existing surplus forage in preparing for the lean period ahead. Improvement of marketing infrastructure together with provision of sanitation fascilities in the markets. This will enhance smooth market operations with minimal risk of spread of covid 19 pandemic. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Equipping of farmers with proper knowledge and skills on how to minimize post harvest loses at this time when they have concluded harvesting of their crops from farms. Farmers are advised to invest in proper storage fascilities to minimize grain losses.",
            "Baringo 2020 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2020 MAY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received slightly above normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 8090 Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently slightly below normal seasonal ranges due to marginal decrease in livestock prices and increasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index for households is within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 117.4 80-120 VCI-3month 81.89 35-50 Of water in the water pan 80-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.31 14.23 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season was normal and took place in the first dekad of March. The county has since then received significant rains that are above normal compared to the previous seasons. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution During the month under review, the county received slightly above normal rains mostly during the first dekad (Figure 1). Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the livelihood zones. By the end of third dekad, the rains had significantly reduced. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 81.89. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the last few months. The performance of the long rains season has been above normal and this has contributed to the good conditions of the natural vagetation. 2.1.1 Field observations 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is fair to good both in quantity and quality in the pastoral livelihood zones and good in the agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones (Figure 3). These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for two months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 90 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources reduced by 26 percent at 2.5km, as compared to the previous month at 3.4km (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 44 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4km. The decrease in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihoods due to the ongoing long rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was 4.8 km in comparison to the previous month at 6.2 km (Figure 7). This was a reduction of 23 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair across all livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the ongoing rains. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable until the end of the current rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department with support from Regional Livelihood Resilience Project has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was marginal increase in average milk produced per household per day of six percent at 1.7 litres, as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.5 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.6 litres. The current milk production is within the normal range. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers planted their farms and the maize is at knee high in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some pockets in the county have also experienced flooding which has damaged the crops especially in the irrigated livelihood zone. So far desert locusts have not been sighted in the county for the last one month. However, the county is in high alart in case of new invassions since the threat is still there. Figure 8: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 15,854 which was a marginal decrease of six percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 16,884 The price was above the long-term average percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.21,333 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,906. The decrease in prices was due to closure of markets across the county 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 2,658 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,644 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by 10 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,138 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,250. The stability in prices is as a result of prevailing good body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize has remained stable at at Ksh. 52, which is the same as the previous month. (Figure 11). The prices are almost the same in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.60, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at Ksh.58.1. (Figure 12). These prices are attributed to relatively inreasing maize prices and diminishing of stocks held by the retailers. The price was below the long- term average by six percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by six percent from Kshs.121.51 to Ksh. 125.2 currently (Figure 13). The price increase was attributed to demand of farm inputs including planting seeds during this planting season scarcity commodity in the county The current prices are above the long-term average by 13 percent Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.131 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms trade stable comparison to the previous month. The terms are currently at 50.7 from 51.2 previously, (Figure attributed to stability in both maize and goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 67.5 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 46.5. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was similar compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The milk consumption was highest in the irrigated livelihood zone at 2 litres and lowest in agro pastoral at 0.5 litres. The amount consumed was above the long-term mean by five percent. Food Consumption Score About 0.6 percent of the households reporting poor food consumption were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 16). The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 35.8 percent and 13.3 percent in pastoral and fishing livelihood zones respectively. Generally, a proportion of 0.4, 25.3 and 74.3 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.31 compared to the previous month at 13.65 (Figure 17). Ribko and Komolion wards in the pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.66 and 25 respectively. This was partly contributed by diarrhoea cases experienced in these areas. Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. There is heightened sensitization campaigns on the preventive measures to be adopted by the communities against the corona virus disease. So far no positive cases have been identified in the county. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index stable 14.23 compared to last month at 13.86 (Figure 18). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies followed by pastoral at 15.1 The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms at 4.1. increase coping strategies was due to increase in food prices and decreasing food stocks households level across all livelihood zones. Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) In collaboration with the Ministry of Health, County administration, and other stakeholders, Red Cross supported sensitization on Covid-19 prevention and response precauton measures for effective health communication to communities. KRCS, Disaster Risk Management (DRM) department did awareness creation to communities living in hotpots zones prone to landslides and flash floods to move to higher ground to ensure that they are safe to perennial disaster (flooding) and more so to minimize mortalities among the population, due to ongoing heavy rainfall across the county causing flash floods (R. Endau, R. Nginyang, R. Perkera, R.Molo). Baringo County Government Under Baringo County Resilience Livelihood Program, two project components were active during the month under review. Youth empowerment programme- mentors visited the groups for technical backstopping. the project supports 63 youth groups i.e 2 per ward for 30 wards across the county. Farm materials, beekeeping , and fish farming implements equipment were distributed to youth groups as per their respective Value Chains. Through World Food Programe (WFP) support to resilience livelihood, 4,499 households were reached with cash transfers 5000- per household. About 27 community projects continued with farm activities with the project supporting community village working groups with extension technical backstopping from county agriculture and livestock officers. The project supported a few households with pasture seeds World Vission 76 lead farmers who were supported with African fox tail grass seed for seed and pasture production for their livestock Supported Magoi community in Mogotio Sub County in solar equipping of Magoi Primary School borehole targeting 1,524 direct beneficiaries Supported installation of solar panels for Kipkaren Spring in Baringo North Sub County as part of solar pumping system equipping targeting water supply to Kimolon and Sekundunin villages. Pipeline systems installation and 30m3 masonry tank construction are also under construction for the same project Supported the County Government of Baringo with COVID-19 preventive supplies (700Litres hand sanitizers, 1000Litrs liquid detergents, 10 Knapsack sprayers, 10 office refuse bins and 120No. hand washing facilities of 100Litres capacity Conducted training of 20 faith leaders, 14 Assistant chiefs and 100CHVs on Covid-19 (control, prevention and referral) Conducted advocacy on child protection in Tiaty, Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties Supported Malezi bora campaign in Tiaty Sub County which aims at making health services more accessible and provides health and nutrition education. The campaign encourages mothers with children under five years to seek services such as immunization, growth monitoring, and treatment for diarrhea using ORS, Vitamin A supplementation and deworming Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement High tensions of insecurity was experienced along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty as well as areas of kapedo and Amaya. This has led to displacement of people in areas of nataan, chemoe and yatya to Kipsaraman in Baringo North. The corona virus disease pandemic in the country is causing some scare in the county as unprecedented measures are being applied in a bid to control it. This has disrupted social lifestyles of the community and has the potential to affect food chain systems such as market operations, production systems among others. Close monitoring of food markets is ongoing. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the long rains season is expected to have a positive impact on various sectors of food security. The recharge levels of various water sources is expected to improve. Therefore access distances to watering points both for domestic and livestock consumption are expected to decline significantly.There will be adequate water for both human and livestock consumption which should be able to last up to the next rainfall season. Markets functionality is likely to be affected by the outbreak of the corona virus disease in the country.The ongoing measures to control the disease have affected the normal social lifestyles of the people and therefore affecting supply of goods and services in the markets. Furthermore, the county government has ordered the closure of open air markets in a move to enhance social distancing. It is expected that livestock prices are likely to drop and therefore affecting household incomes. Consequently, food access will be stressed. Livestock body condition is expected to be stable due to availability of adequate forage and water. This is therefore expected to enhance livestock productivity in terms of milk production, carcuslive weight among other livestock production indicators. The long rains season crop is expected to mature safely as the threat of desert locusts is minimal.With no sightings having been observed in the last one month, farmers are most likely to achieve the normal yield expected during the long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Close monitoring of food prices is required due to market disruptions that are being caused by the Covid19 pandemic. The information will assist in finding out the impact of the pandemic on food security at the household level. Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Provision of regular updates from the NationalCounty government to the communities affected by the desert locust through well customized communication material in the popular vernacular radio stations Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need for joint resource mobilization towards addressing food insecurity and under nutrition cases Continuous engagements to address under nutrition cases in in the county. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega dams taking advantages of surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of new boreholes in drought affected hard to reach communities Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources, water harvesting andconstruction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on sanitation and hygiene, water managementresources based conflict resolution and management committees 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Enhance sensitization campaigns on preventive measures against corona virus disease (Covid 19). Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Provision for de-worming of all school going children 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water sources e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic operation and maintanance of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability Provision for De-worming of school going children 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Closely monitor the impact of desert locust to pasture and browse which may trigger earlier migration Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for foot and mouth disease Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Equipping of county-based ground control technical teams monitoring locust invasion to stabilize the food and nutrition security situation in the county Carry out an objective assessment on economic, environmental and social impact of the locust invasion Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote water harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2020 Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2020 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 50-60. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal ranges and on an decreasing trend. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period. About 75 swarms of desert locusts have been reported in all the six sub counties. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently slightly below normal seasonal ranges due to marginal decrease in livestock prices and increasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 92.16 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()( January 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.75 13.63 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season was normal and took place in the first dekad of the March. The county received above normal rains in the first dekad of the month. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Most parts of the county received above normal rains in the first decad of the month (Figure 1). In dekad 2, the amounts received were normal compared to the previous seasons. Both temporal and spatial distribution was fair across all the livelihood zones. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (vci) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 92.16. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the last few months. The onset of the long rains season is expected to sustain the existing good vegetation conditions. 2.1.1 Field observations 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is poor to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral livelihood zones and fair to good in the agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones (Figure 3). These conditions are normal at this time of the year. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index The current pasture is expected to last for one months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and good in the irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood Figure 4: Browse Condition 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were water pans ,rivers and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 60 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for three months in irrigated farming livelihood zone In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for two months. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.1km, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 3.6km (Figure The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 38 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.4 km. This slight increase in distances is attributed to the normal drying of open water sources across all livelihoods. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points increased by nine percent at 6.2 km in comparison to the previous month at 5.7 km (Figure The pastoral livelihood recorded the longest average distance of 8.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The situation is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair across all livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The current livestock body condition will remain stable until the end of the current rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Foot and mouth disease cases are present in Baringo North sub county particularly in Barwessa region. Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.6 litres, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.7 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 1 litre. The current milk production is within the normal range. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers are clearing the farms in preparation for the long rains season across all livelihood zones. Other farmers are planting their seasonal crops. However, with the presence of desert locusts in the county, there are fears that the young crops could be lost to these pests. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle decreased by six percent at Ksh. 17,204 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 18,407. The price was above the long-term average by 23 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,167 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,375. The decrease in prices was due to low market demand mostly in pastoral areas. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. Figure 8: Milk Production Figure 9: Cattle Prices The average price of a medium sized goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 2,946 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,917 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by 25 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,583 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,500. The high prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize was at Ksh. 48.5, a marginal increase of three percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. Ksh. 47.3 (Figure 11). The price was stable in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.50 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.38 per kg. The price stability can be attributed by the decreasing stocks at household stocks which is pushing up demand for maize. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was stable at Ksh.54.3, as compared to the previous month at Ksh.55. (Figure 12). These prices are attributed to relatively stable maize prices and availability of stocks held by the retailers. The price was slightly below the long- term average by four percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by three percent at Kshs.114.2 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 111.5 (Figure 13). Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Figure 12: Posho prices The price increase was attributed to demand of farm inputs including planting seeds in preparation for the planting season The current prices are stable as compared to the long-term average. Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.121 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade declined slightly by two percent in comparison to the previous month at 61.7 to stand at 60.7 currently (Figure 14). This was attributed to increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 80.6 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 55.6. 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.5 litres, which was an increase of seven percent compared to the previous month (Figure The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.8 litres and lowest in the fishing livelihood zone at 1.4 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by eight percent. Food Consumption Score About 3.9, 3.3 and 3.3 percent of the households reported consumption and were in the pastoral, agro pastoral and fishing livelihood zones respectively(Figure 16). The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 30.6 percent in pastoral, 23.3 percent in fishing and 20 percent in agro pastoral livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 5.3, 25.3 and 71.4 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable consumption scores respectively. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.75 compared to the previous month (Figure 17). Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 24.49 and 24.17 respectively. This was partly contributed diarrhoea cases experienced in these aeas. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. There is heightened sensitization campaigns on the preventive measures to be adopted by the communities against the corona virus disease. So far no positive cases have been identified in the county. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index stable 13.63, compared to last month at 13.88 (Figure 18). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies followed by pastoral at 14.5 The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms at 3.9. The stability in coping strategies was due to availability of food at households level across livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross Supported sensitization and training of staff and other volunteers in various government institutions such as prosons, police stations among others on how to handle the covid-19 pandemic. They also supported the County through Ministry of Health to undertake mass awareness creation through public address system on Covid-19 IN Baringo South, Eldama Ravine, Baringo Central and Baringo North Sub Counties majorly conveying key messages regarding preventive measures, signs and symptoms, causes andreferral pathways. Figure 17: Nutrition status Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index Through UNICEF Flexi project, KRCS supported one cycle, two integrated medical outreaches in parts Tirioko ward East Pokot Sub County. Health and nutrition surveillance continued at household level supported by community Health Volunteers using MUAC who then refer to the link facilities where surveillance is done by both MUAC and WHZ. Kenya Red Cross Society through support from UNICEF continue carrying out emergency hygiene education targeting drought and floods affected communities and schools in East Pokot, Tiaty East and Baringo South Sub Counties. Strengthening disaster risk reduction and emergency response through USAIDOFDA support.The project aims to improve the capacities of communities, county governments and KRCS to anticipate, prepare and respond to disaster risks. Building Community AwarenessMobilization. The project supported community awareness creation meetings in 6 wards in Baringo County; Saimo Soi ward, Barwessa ward, Kipsaraman Ward in Baringo North, Tirioko Ward, Loyamorok ward and Silale ward in Tiaty sub county reaching 1279 people directly on disaster preparedness, mitigation management, dissemination of early warning information on drought cycle management for early warning, planning and action. Aim is to enhance and increase level of preparedness to climate change related disasters among pastoralist communities in six wards covered under DRR sites. Baringo County Government Surveillance and monitoring of the areas where locust swarms have roosted to see if there are any hatchlings of hoppers to control them, especially along the Kerio Valley and Mogotio Sub County World Vission Equipping Magoi and Kamar BHs to increase access to water .Enhanced EWV activities enabling people to preserve water in pan dams and tanks .Through FMNR people are able to increase vegetation cover mitigating effects of drought . Cash transfer to 300HHs in Kisanana, Tirioko and Bartabwa wards to mitigate thee impact of last years drought. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. Incidences of locust invasion were reported in Kaplengno ,Kapkararam,Nyalilbuch,Chebirbei ,Noiwet ,Kiprota ,Oinopsos (Kamarich village) ,Kipngorom (Kamose village),Kipngorom (Kamose village),Kapkirwok,Kapkelelwa,Salabani, Mogotio (Equator)and Kiptoim Location. High tensions of insecurity was experienced along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty as well as areas of kapedo and Amaya. . The corona virus disease pandemic in the country is causing some scare in the county as unprecedented measures are being applied in a bid to control it. This has disrupted social lifestyles of the community and has the potential to affect food chain systems such as market operations, production systems among others. 7.2 Migration Animal Areas Reported Livesto Baboon Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the long rains season is expected to have a positive impact on various sectors of food security. The recharge levels of various water sources is expected to improve. Farmers are expected to do timely planting of their seasonal crops while forage resources are expected to get better in terms of quality and quantity.However, the precense of the desert locusts in the county is likely to reverse the expected gains in the agriculture sector.So far the locusts have been reported in all the six sub counties of Baringo. The affected wards are Tenges, Emining, Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Marigat, Ribko and Tirioko. There are fears that the swarms might have laid eggs in these wards and therefore the next generation of swarms to hatch will concide with the germination period of crops. If it so happens, farmers stand to loose their crop to the locusts. Markets functionality is likely to be affected by the outbreak of the corona virus disease in the country.The ongoing measures to control the disease have affected the normal social lifestyles of the people and therefore affecting supply of goods and services in the markets. Furthermore, the county government has ordered the closure of open air markets in a move to enhance social distancing. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Close monitoring of food prices is required due to market disruptions that are being caused by the Covid19 pandemic. The information will assist in finding out the impact of the pandemic on food security at the household level. Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Provision of regular updates from the NationalCounty government to the communities affected by the desert locust through well customized communication material in the popular vernacular radio stations Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need for joint resource mobilization towards addressing food insecurity and under nutrition cases Continuous engagements to address under nutrition cases in in the county. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega dams taking advantages of surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of new boreholes in drought affected hard to reach communities Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources, water harvesting andconstruction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on sanitation and hygiene, water managementresources based conflict resolution and management committees 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Enhance sensitization campaigns on preventive measures against corona virus disease (Covid 19). Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Provision for de-worming of all school going children 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water sources e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic operation and maintanance of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability Provision for De-worming of school going children 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Closely monitor the impact of desert locust to pasture and browse which may trigger earlier migration Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for foot and mouth disease Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Equipping of county-based ground control technical teams monitoring locust invasion to stabilize the food and nutrition security situation in the county Carry out an objective assessment on economic, environmental and social impact of the locust invasion Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote water harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2020 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 8090 Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index for households is within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 117.4 80-120 VCI-3month 87.93 35-50 Of water in the water pan 80-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.17 14.12 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the county continued to receive rains that are above normal compared to the long term average. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received enhanced rains compared to the previous seasons (Figure 1). Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the livelihood zones. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all sub counties (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 87.93 . The current VCI is at their highest maximum values ever recorded in the county. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the better part of this year. The performance of the long rains season has been above normal and this has contributed to the good conditions of the natural vagetation. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity across all livelihood zones (Figure These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood given prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 90 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable at 2.7km, in comparison to the previous month (Figure The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 59 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.2km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihoods due to the ongoing long rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was 5.1km in comparison to the previous month at 4.8 km (Figure 7). This was a marginal of six percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 6.2 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the ongoing rains. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable until the end of the current rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department with support from Regional Livelihood Resilience Project has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was marginal increase in average milk produced per household per day by six percent at 1.8 litres, as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Pastoral livelihood zone had an average of 2.4 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.6 litres. The current milk production is within the normal range. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently the maize is at flowering stage in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some pockets in the county have also experienced flooding which has damaged the crops especially in the irrigated livelihood zone. So far desert locusts have not been sighted in the county for the last two months. Figure 8: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 16,019 which was a marginal increase compared to the previous month of Ksh. 15,854. The price was above the long-term average by 27 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.18,000 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,800. The decrease in prices was due to closure of markets across the county due to Covid 19 pandemic. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 2,650 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,658 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by 10 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,500 and lowest in pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,463. The stability in prices is as a result prevailing condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize has remained stable at Ksh. 51, as compared to the previous month. (Figure 11). The prices are almost the same in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.58, a slight decrease as compared to the previous month at Ksh.60. (Figure 12). The price was below the long-term average by six percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by five percent from Kshs.125.2 to Ksh. 131.9 currently (Figure 13). The price increase was attributed to scarcity of the commodity in the county The current prices are above the long-term average by 10 percent Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.138 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade are stable in comparison to the previous month. The terms are currently at 51.4 from 51.7 previously, (Figure 14). This was attributed to stability in both maize and goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 69 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 45.9. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.8 litres, which was an increased of 29 percent compared to the previous month (Figure The milk consumption was highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at 2.4 litres and lowest in agro pastoral at 0.5 litres. The amount consumed was above the long-term mean by five percent. 5.2 Food Consumption Score About 2.2 percent of the households reporting poor food consumption were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 16). The proportion households borderline food consumption was 30.6 percent ,10.3 percent and 7.4 percent in pastoral, fishing and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Generally, a proportion of 1.5, 22.5 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.17 compared to the previous month at 13.31 (Figure 17). Ribko and Kolowa wards in the pastoral livelihood recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.7 and 24.37 respectively. This was partly contributed by diarrhoea cases experienced in these areas. Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county. By the end of June 2020, the county was yet to record its first official COVID 19 case. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index stable 14.12 compared to last month at 14.23 Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies followed by pastoral at 15. The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms at 4.3. Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions National Drought Management Authority(NDMA) Baringo NDMA office carried out review and updating the county drought response contingency plan. The plan will guide county partners in carryng out drought response initiatives in a more coordinated and cost effective way. Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) The Kenya Red Cross society in collaboration with other technical departments has supported the development of the locust response contingency plan. The plan is expected to guide the county in locust control mitigation measures. UNICEF Project Tiaty Sub County Continued Integrated nutrition outreaches in Tiaty East targeting six sites with MoH under UNICEF Targeted messages on Maternal Infant, and Young child nutrition and COVID prevention shared through this platform. Continued integrated nutrition outreaches in East Pokot targeting six sites with MoH under UNICEF Targeted messages on Maternal Infant, and Young child nutrition and COVID prevention shared through this platform. Support supervision was also done to assess adherence to COVID 19 measures. On floods control measures, the KRCS has held Post Floods KIRA Assessment CSG on 23rd June, 2020. It also conducted Kenya Inter-Agency Rapid Assessment (KIRA) with stakeholders in Baringo South and North Sub Counties . Post Floods KIRA Assessment final report development is ongoing. On OFDA-USAID project, monitoring and supervision of test pumping water projects works is in progress for Kapunyany and Tangulbei. KRCS has conducted assessment on capacity gaps on livestock extension support by county government Knowledge Attitude Practice KAP survey in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties. Implementation of BCC outreaches in the 8 CLTS villages as well as making pre-visits to meet the gate keepers in the OFDA project areas is currently ongoing in 4 sub counties-Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and South Sub Counties. Community managed disaster risk reduction training (CMDRR) targeting KRCS Staff and Volunteers underway from 29th June, 2020 to 3rd July, 2020. Self Help Africa The NGO supported the County Government in locust control by purchasing 30 multi purpose spraying equipments. They will also be implementing drought resilience program through the SHARE project targeting 60, 000 beneficiaries. World Vision Facilitated in partnership with MoH and East Pokot sub-county Covid response committee training of all community healt volunteers (CHVs), chiefs and assistant chiefs in the entire East Pokot sub-county to support sensitization on COVID-19 prevention and response precaution measures for effective health communication to communities. Mapped and identified1,000 households in Mogotio and East Pokot Sub Counties to receive cash transfers of Kshs 4000 each to support vulnerable families buy food during COVID-19 pandemic period. Continued with rehabilitation of 4 boreholes in East Pokot Sub County (Ngoron-Loremoi, Kapunyany, Embositit and Koloa). This will boost access to water which is crucial under COVID-19 precaution measures. Commissioning of construction of 9.1km pipeline systems, 100m3 masonry tank and 5 water kiosks to enhance distribution and access to potable water for human and livestock use in Kamar and Molo-Sirwe Locations, Mogotio Sub County. In Baringo North sub County, construction works for Phase II of Kipkaren Water Project were commissioned. The scope of works will cover construction of two rising mains to existing masonry tank at Kimolon and to a proposed tank at Sekondonin. The tank at Kipkaren will act as storage tank as the water gravitate to it. The water will then be pumped to the two tanks and be supplied to six villages Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 potentially benefiting 201 households who will access water within 500m and or 30 minutes turnaround time. Through the Locust control and safeguarding livelihood project, 175 households in East Pokot Sub County, 125 households in Baringo North and 100 households in Tiaty Sub County were identified for cash transfers of Kshs 3000 per month for 3 months to recover livelihoods affected by locust infestation. These farmers will also be monitored and capacity built by 60 ToTs trained on good agricultural practices. Facilitated Malezi bora campaigns in Tiaty Sub County aimed at making health services more accessible and provides health and nutrition education. The campaign encourages mothers with children under five years to seek services such as immunization, growth monitoring, and treatment for diarrhea using ORS, Vitamin A supplementation and deworming 3300 households in Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties were issued with sachets of water purifiers to facilitate in household water treatment. Issuance of 357 NFI Kits to in Baringo South Subscounty to individuals displaced by floods. The areas were Salabani, Ngambo, Ilngarua, Kimondi, Kiserian, Ilchamus and Rugus locations Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county is still grappling with effects of the COVID 19 pandemic. There is limited social interactions due to measures that have been put in place by the government to contain its spread. Livestock markets have been shut down and therefore affecting household incomes. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county as most livestock are still within the traditional wet season grazing areas.. 7.3 Food security prognosis The performance of the long rains season was above normal and is therefore expected to have a positive impact on food security. Crops on the farms are doing well and normal yield is expected to be realised in the next harvest. County food stocks will therefore be enhanced in the next two months. Water access and availability for both human and livestock consumption is expected to remain good up to the next rainfall season. Treckking distances to water points are therefore expcted to remain within normal ranges. Forage conditions are xpcted to remain good thus sustaining good livestock body condition up to the next rainfall season. This is therefore expected to enhance livestock productivity in terms of milk production, live animal weight among other production parameters. Cases of malnutrition are expcted to remain minimal due to availability of milk for household consumption. Household incomes in pastoral and agro pastoral areas are expected to be affected following the closure of livestock markets due to Covid 19 pandemic. Livestock production constitute more than 50 percent of the total household incomes in this zones. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Close monitoring of food prices to be sustained due to market disruptions that are being caused by the Covid19 pandemic. The information will assist in finding out the impact of the pandemic on food security at the household level. Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need for joint resource mobilization towards addressing food insecurity and under nutrition cases Continuous engagements to address under nutrition cases in in the county. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Improve on water quality mostly in pastoral and agro pastoral areas where usage of surface based water sources such as damd and pans is common. Availing of chemicals for water treatment at households is important as it will minimises outbreak of water borne diseases. Sensitization of communities on sanitation and hygiene, water managementresources based conflict resolution and management committees 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Enhance sensitization campaigns on preventive measures against Covid 19 pandemic. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water sources e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic operation and maintanance of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for foot and mouth disease Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms Improve on the infrastructure for pasture management and conservation. There is a lot of forage in the field which if harvested and conserved well, it will promote sustainable livestock production in the county. 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Continous surveillance of desert locusts in the county. The locusts are reported to be in the neighbouring counties and therefore its important to be watchful for any secondary invasion. Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote water harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2020 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 107.8 80-120 VCI-3month 95.02 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 13.20 12.97 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the county continued to receive rains that are above normal compared to the long term average. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received enhanced rains compared to the previous seasons (Figure 1). In the first two dekads of July, about 116 percent of the normal rains were alredy received. Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the livelihood zones in the county. The rains have resulted in to flooding in some areas , Baringo South sub county being the most affected. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 95.02 . The current VCI is at its highest maximum value ever recorded in the county. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the better part of this year. The performance of the long rains season has been above normal and has extended in to the June- July- August season. This has contributed to the good conditions of the natural vagetation. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood given prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, traditional river wells and water pans (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 90 percent to 100 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources has reduced slightly to 2.5km, in comparison to the previous month at 2.7km (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 2.7km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihood zones due to the extended long rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance livestock from grazing fields to water points reduced by 12 percent at 4.5km in comparison to the previous month at 5.1 km (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5.4 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the ongoing rains. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable for at least three months from now. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department with support from Regional Livelihood Resilience Project has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was marginal increase in average milk produced per household per day by 33 percent at 2.4 litres, as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had an average of 3.3 litres while pastoral had the least at 1.9 litres. The current milk production is above LTAs by17 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently the maize is at Tussling and grain filling stage in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Harvesting of beans and green grams is ongoing. Some pockets in the county have also experienced flooding which has damaged the crops especially in the irrigated livelihood zone where at least 23 percent of irrigation land has been affected Figure 8: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium- sized cattle was at Ksh. 17,167 which was an increase of seven percent compared to the previous month of Ksh. 16,019. The price was above the long- term average by 34 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.22,000 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,194. The improved prices was partly due to partial reopening of markets. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh. 2,787, a slight increase compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,650 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by seven percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,333 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,400. The better prices is as result prevailing condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram maize reduced marginally from Ksh. 51 to Ksh. 47, as compared to the previous month. (Figure 11). The current prices are slightly below the long-term average at this time of the year. The drop in rice cab be attributed to the ongoing maize harvesting both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.50 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.35 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.54, a decrease of seven percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh.58. (Figure 12). The price was below the long-term average by 11 percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks household level and traders. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by five percent from Kshs.132 to Ksh. 126 currently (Figure 13). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of the commodity in the county. The current prices are similar to the long- term average Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.135 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms trade improved comparison to the previous month. The terms are currently at 59 from 51 previously, (Figure 14). This was attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 75 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 51. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.8 litres, which was an increase of 29 percent compared to the previous month (Figure The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 2.5 litres and lowest in pastoral at 1 litres. The amount consumed was above the long-term. 5.2 Food Consumption Score About 1.1 percent of the households reporting poor food consumption were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 35.6 percent and 16.7 percent in pastoral and fishing livelihood zones respectively. Generally, a proportion of 1.1, 25.6 and 73.3 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.20 compared to the previous month at 13.17 (Figure 17). Kolowa and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 23.33 and 21.98 respectively. This was partly contributed by diarrhoea cases experienced in these areas. Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county. By the end of July 2020, about 15 cases had been confirmed and are in isolation centres. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 12.97 by July, reflecting a reduction of eight percent compared to the previous month. Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 19.5 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.7. Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past five months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions National Drought Management Authority(NDMA) Baringo NDMA office carried out review and updating the county drought response contingency plan. The plan will guide county partners in carryng out drought response initiatives in a more coordinated and cost effective way. Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) In collaboration with the County Multy Agency team (KIRA), a rapid assessment was conducted in flood prone areas to find out the impact of the current floods on people and their livelihoods. The findings of the assessment wil guide the County in offering immediate humanitarian assistance to about 683 affected households. Self Help Africa They NGO is implementing drought resilience program through the SHARE project targeting 60, 000 beneficiaries. World Vission In partnering with MoH and Mogotio, Tiaty, East Pokot, and Baringo North Sub-county leadership teams, conducted community sensitization and trainings on COVID-19 prevention and response for enhanced access to knowledge and safe hygienic practices. Supported a total of 2,793 households in Mogotio, Tiaty, East Pokot, and Baringo North Sub Counties to receive cash transfers of Kshs 4000 each to support vulnerable families buy food and other basic necessities during current Covid-19 pandemic period. Continued with construction of 9.1km pipeline systems, 100m3 masonry tank and 5 water kiosks to enhance distribution and access to potable water for human and livestock use in Kamar and Molo-Sirwe Locations, Mogotio Sub County. Continued with construction works for Phase II of Kipkaren Water Project in Baringo North sub County, whose scope of works will cover construction of two rising mains to existing masonry tank at Kimolon and to proposed tank at Sekondonin. Monitored 3300HHs in Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties who were issued with sachets of water purifiers to facilitate in household water treatment. County government Provission of 2,500 kg of pasture seeds countywide targeting 200 households. Construction of a grain store in Baringo North, Kabartonjo ward Provission of 4000 hematic bags in all the sub counties . This will assist in minimizing food wastage in the ongoing crop harvest. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county is still grappling with effects of the COVID 19 pandemic. There is limited social interactions due to measures that have been put in place by the government to contain its spread. Livestock markets have been shut down and therefore affecting household incomes. 7.2 Floods Following heavy rains being witnessed in the county, there have been pockets experiencing flooding. Most affected areas are those surrounding Lake Baringo, Lake 94 and Lake Bogoria. About 23 percent of irrigation land has been affected. Displacement of people has been reported leading to creation of internally displaced person (IDP) camps at Loboi and Marigat areas in Baringo South sub county. Generally, areas affected by these floods include lower parts of Baringo South, some pockets of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty and Mogotio sub-counties. Farms and on farm crops losses were witnessed in the affected areas. Structural damages have been reported as a number of roads water supply and storage systems were cut off or completely destroyed. About 11 deaths have been confirmed while 683 households were displaced. 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks are expected to be near normal to above normal following a favourable crop season that has just ended. Household are expected to replenish their stocks from the ongoing harvest. The stocks should be able to sustain households and extend into the next rainfall season. Milk production will be sustained within normal range due to the prevailing good livestock body condition. Household incomes are expected to decline due to market disruptions following imposition of Covid 19 restrictions. Income from livestock sales will be the most affected as over 90 percent of livestock markets are likely to remain closed or operate below capacity. Maize prices will continue to decline as households in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones resort to consuming own production. Terms of trade are likely to be favourable to pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods due to expected low maize prices. Household milk utilization will be normal to above normal following an improvement in milk production. Consumption rate of household stocks will be above normal as students are expected to stay at home due to the existing Covid 19 restrictions. Some pockets in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties are expected to have challenges with regard to sanitation and hygiene due to floods that have resulted in displacement of households, sinking of latrines and contamination of water sources. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain low and stable. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: On flood related issues, the following should be done. Distribution of safe water storage facilities and small scale (water trucking) . Rapid cleaning and disinfecting programme for affected water sources. Improving access for hygiene and sanitation services. Raising tube-wells and boreholes above flood water level to prevent contamination. Decontaminating water from community damspansponds or essential water bodies used for washing and cleaning utensils. Distribution of household water treatment chemicals and related instruction. Repairs to existing sanitation facilities and water works. Close monitoring of food prices to be sustained due to market disruptions that are being caused by the Covid19 pandemic. The information will assist in finding out the impact of the pandemic on food security at the household level. Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Improve on water quality mostly in pastoral and agro pastoral areas where usage of surface based water sources such as damd and pans is common. Availing of chemicals for water treatment at households is important as it will minimises outbreak of water borne diseases. Sensitization of communities on sanitation and hygiene, water managementresources based conflict resolution and management committees 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Enhance sensitization campaigns on preventive measures against Covid 19 pandemic. Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Equip schools with sanitation fscillities in preparation for reopening early next year Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water sources e.g. boreholes and river intakes 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for foot and mouth disease 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Continous surveillance of desert locusts in the county. The locusts are reported to be in the neighbouring counties and therefore its important to be watchful for any secondary invasion. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2020 ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2020 JANUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Average rainfall was received in the month of January 2020. The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal and stable. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (90-100) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good to fair in both quality and quantity and expected to remain stable with the on-going rains. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly above the normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. No Drought related livestock deaths reported in all Livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently above normal seasonal ranges due to improving livestock body condition. Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 11.3, a decrease as compared 14.6 in the previous month. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 92.75 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()( January 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 11.3 15.16 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION During the month of January, an average of 5.1mm and 1.9mm of rainfall was received in the 1st and 2nd dekad respectively as per the satellite imagery shown in Figure 1. The amounts received were below the LTA during the first dekad and the second dekad. Both temporal and spatial distribution was fair across all the sub-counties. Fig. 1. Rainfall performance 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation condition in the County was above normal greenness as shown in Table 1. COUNTY County VCI as at 28th December 2019 VCI as at 26th January 2020 BARINGO County 86.29 92.75 The county vegetation greenness is above normal, with all its sub counties above normal vegetation greenness. The county experienced above normal rains during month impacted positively the vegetation condition for the county. Central 83.91 84.31 Eldama 75.15 Mogotio 95.62 North 80.15 84.29 South 86.31 91.12 Tiaty 100.86 Table.1.Source BOKU The vegetation condition index for Baringo County was at 92.75 which was normal vegetation greenness as compared to the LTA (Fig 23). The vegetation condition is stable and expected to improve throughout the county due to the off season rains being received. Fig.3.VCI trend Fig 2. VCI 2.1.2 Pasture The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and good in the irrigated livelihood zone as shown in Figure 4. These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for two months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.3 Browse The browse condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and good in the irrigated livelihood zone (Fig 5). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were water pans, rivers and traditional river wells (Fig 6). Most water pans and dams were at 70 to 80 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair, which is normal for this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for three months in irrigated farming livelihood In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for two months. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.3km, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 3.1km (Fig The distances are below the LTA by 33 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 0.8km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4 km. This slight increase in distances is attributed to cessation of short rains across all livelihoods. Fig.4.Pasture Condition Fig.5. Browse Condition Fig.6 State of water Sources Fig.7. Water Source Trekking Distances 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points remained the same at 5.6 km compared to the previous month (Fig 8). pastoral livelihood covered the longest average distance of 6km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.6 km. situation attributed availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Fig.8. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is fair to good across all livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the county. The body condition is expected to remain stable until the onset of the next rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of FMD were reported in Barwesa in Baringo North where quarantine has been imposed. CCP and CBP were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks in the county during the month. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.7 litres, which was stable compared to the previous month (Fig10) The amount is below the long-term average by 11 percent. The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Pastoral livelihood zone had an average of 2.1 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.5 litres. RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers are clearing the farms in preparation for the next season across all livelihood zones. Fig.10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh.22, 269, an increase of 10 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 20,278 (Fig 11). The price was above the long-term average by 61 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones posted the highest prices of Ksh.29, 667 while Pastoral livelihood recorded the least average price of Ksh.17, 500. The increase in prices was attributed to decrease in livestock numbers as farmers hold on to their livestock occasioned by good pasture and water situation across all livelihood zones. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 3,065 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,987(Fig 12). This goat price was above the LTA by 23 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 3,500 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 500. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions and limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was stable as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46 (Fig 13). The price was slightly below the long-term average at this time of the year by four percent. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.48 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.32 per kg. The price stability can be attributed to availability of stocks in the market. Fig.11. Cattle Prices Fig.12. Goat Prices Fig.13. Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.55, which was similar as the previous month (Fig 14). These prices are attributed increasing maize prices and availability of stocks held by the retailers. The price was slightly above the long- term average by four percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by eight percent at Kshs.124 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 115 (Fig 15). The price increment was attributed to decreasing stocks at household across livelihood zones and the demand for planting seeds. The current prices are slightly above the long-term average by 15 percent. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.136 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4. 3.0 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade were stable in comparison to the previous month at 66.9; this was attributed increase in both the livestock prices and maize prices (Fig The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 92.8 while agro pastoral livelihood Zone had the least at 52.9. Fig.15. Beans Prices Fig.16. Terms of Trade Fig.14.posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.5litres; which was an increase of 15 percent compared to the previous month (Fig 17). The milk consumption was highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at 1.8litres and lowest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 0.5 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by six percent. Food Consumption Score About 3.9 percent of the households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Fig 18). The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 28.9 in pastoral and 16.7 in fishing livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 3, 21 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods poor, borderline acceptable consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones was stable as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age had declined with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 13.9, compared to the previous month at 11.3 (Fig 19). The situation is likely attributed to upsurge of malaria in irrigated livelihood zone. Komolion, Ribko and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest rates of malnutrition at 33.7, 20.6 and 18.9 respectively. Fig.17. Milk Consumption Fig. 18. Food Consumption Score Fig.19. Muac 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period there was an outbreak of malaria upsurge in Ilchamus ward and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household Level. The excess rains in the season have created conducive atmospheres for the breeding of mosquitoes. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. 5. 4.0 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was 14.22, a decrease compared to last month at 15.16. Households pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 20.9 followed by pastoral at 155.3 The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4.2. The decrease in the coping strategies was due to availability of food at households level across livelihood zones. Fig.20. Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority NDMA coordinated and supported joint assessment of the desert locust invasion in the county to ascertain its social economic and environmental impact to the general food security. Supported the community project inception meetings organized by ADS central rift in parts of Tiaty Supported the training for CSONSA and the media organized by KAS. Baringo County Government Integrated outreaches and mass screening-Tiaty subcounties-63 sites, BN-8, BS-8 and Mogotio 8 sites Sub-county coordination meetings done in East-pokot on 14th Nov, Tiaty was be done on 27th November Monitoring of outreaches done in November for Tiaty and December for BN, BS and Mogotio Monthly nutrition commodity prepositioning Implementation of Malezi bora weeks activities which includes vitamin A Supplementation Malaria support supervision Routine disease surveillance for livestock Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation Farmers sensitization of Agroforestry, perennial crop farming like fruits and early maturing crops such as beans, General sensitization on how to reduce post-harvest losses and aflatoxin Kenya Red Cross Society Nutrition Early Action for scalable response in emergencies and UNICEF FLEXI Phase II projects During this period, KRCS supported integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East (12 sites), East Pokot (12 sites) and 3 outreach sites in malaria prone zones in East Pokot where a comprehensive health package of health services was provided comprising of; Immunization for children, Treatment of minor illnesses, Deworming, Nutrition screening, Nutrition supplementation, Referrals and link to BSFP during outreaches. During each outreach site all beneficiaries (beneficiaries in the program plus new admissions) are screened for acute malnutrition, and edema. The screening is done for the purposes of referrals to OTPSFP for management. Behavior change communication is done through public health education to communities we support In the Month of Jan 2020, more than 1000 5yrs children screened on their nutrition status, immunization and supplementation (more than 600 1yr reached, 1yr more than 300 immunized), more than 1500 people reached through treatment of various ailments. UNICEF WASH Project Kenya Red Cross Society through support from UNICEF is carrying out emergency hygiene education targeting drought affected communities and schools. o Trainings: 14 primary teachers trained on effective support to promotion of hygiene and sanitation practices in schools, formation of school clubs. Targeted schools drawn from Baringo South, East Pokot, Mogotio and Baringo North. During the process a total of 856 households (2457 males, 2910 females and 1041 under five year children, 2333 above five year children) reached this week. A total of 263 functional latrines were observed. 4 hand washing facilities were installed 270 PUR sachets and 7309 Aqua tabs distributed in in both the sub- counties 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. Incidences of locust invasion was reported Kamurio, Tiaty Hills, Kapunyani and Koriema 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The above normal OND rains have consistently had a positive impact on forage and water availability; with good effects on the livestock body condition, milk availability and overall livestock sale prices. Factors that contributed significantly to improved household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk will likely improve household dietary diversity and the nutritional security. The on-going safety net initiatives by the National; County government and all non state actors targeting pockets of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. The current food and nutritional security situation will be bolstered further given the prevailing positive weather conditions in the County. Community members will need to exercise great care and safety precautions given the current massive rains and related flooding that may result into destruction of roads and loss access to essential services and death has been reported in Mogotio. The on-going lifeline messages on floods early warning by the National, County government and all non-state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. Baringo being a high risk Malaria and Rift Valley Fever prone County the Ministry of Health and Livestock should take the necessary preventive measures of alerting the identified key hotspots on the likely Outbreak of these diseases that in the past have caused loss of life in the County. Mainly through awareness creation and prepositioning of the necessary medical supplies to manage outbreaks. The desert locust invasion has been reported in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit and Isiolo need to monitored very closely and sector like Agri and livestock need to preposition adequate preventive and control measures to contain the situation in case of any cases being reported. Animal Areas Reported Livest Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Provision of regular updates from the NationalCounty government to the communities affected by the desert locust through well customized communication material in the popular vernacular radio stations Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega Dams taking advantages of surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of new boreholes in drought affected hard to reach communities Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Provision for De-worming of all school going children 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability Provision for De-worming of school going children 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Closely monitor the impact of desert locust to pasture and browse which may trigger earlier migration Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for rift valley fever Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Equipping of county-based ground control technical teams monitoring locust invasion to stabilize the food and nutrition security situation in the county Carry out an objective assessment on economic, environmental and social impact of the locust invasion Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops Enhance surveillance and sensitize farmers on threats posed by aflatoxin which claimed three (3) human lives on the eve of chrismas REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2020 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators Most biophysical indicators are within the expected seasonal ranges. Off season showers were received in the first dekad of February. The vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal ranges and on an decreasing trend. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently slightly below normal seasonal ranges due to marginal decrease in livestock prices and increasing maize prices. Distances to water sources for households currently are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most of surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 98.82 35-50 Of water in the water pan 80-90 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season ()( January 2019) (Maize) 2,500(Beans) LTA (40,046Ha) LTA (20,028Ha) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.42 13.88 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE The onset of the short rains season was early in the first dekad of October compared to the normal of second dekad of October. On average, the County received a total of 476.68 mm of rainfall against the long term average of 179.68 mm. The ceasation of the season was normal in the third dekad of December 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION The County did experience off season rains mostly in the last dekad of January and the first dekad of February (Figure 1). The rains were quite significant and above the long term means in that period. As the month progressed, the rains did reduce significantly in the last two dekads of February. Both temporal and spatial distribution was fair across all the livelihood zones. Fig. 1. Rainfall performance 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 98.28. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the short rains season which performed above normal. Morever, the county did experience off season rains late last month which had an effects of impacting vegetation positively. 2.1.1 Field observations 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and good in the irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 3). These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for two months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and good in the irrigated livelihood (Figure condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Fig.ure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were water pans, rivers and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 70-80 of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is fair, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for three months in irrigated farming livelihood In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, the water is likely to last for two months. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.6km, which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 3.3km (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 28 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 0.8km while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.4 This slight increase in distances is attributed to the normal dry season across all livelihoods. 2.2.3 Livestock access The return distance for livestock from grazing zones to water points was stable at 5.7Km in comparison to the previous month (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone covered the longest average distance of 6.8km while irrigated livelihood zone covered the shortest average distance of 1.6 km. The situation is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is fair to good across all livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The current livestock body condition will remain stable until the next rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Cases of Foot and mouth (FMD) were reported in Barwesa in Baringo North and Ilchamus in Baringo South sub counties where quarantine has been imposed . Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average produced household per day was at 1.6 litres, which was marginal decrease as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The amount is below the long-term average by over 100 percent. The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2.7 litres , while Agro pastoral had the least at 1 litre. 3.2 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION. 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers are clearing the farms in preparation for the next season across all livelihood zones. Figure 8: Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 LIVESTOCK MARKETING 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh.18,407 a decrease of 17 percent as compared to January at Ksh. 22,269. The price was above the long-term average by 43 percent. Irrigated livelihood zones posted the highest prices of Ksh.29,000 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.18, 681. The decrease in prices was attributed to disruption of markets due to insecurity and Quarantine as a result of FMD. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was relatively stable at Ksh. 2,917 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,065 (Figure 10). The goat price was above the LTA by 26 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,667 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 500. The high prices were as a result of good livestock conditions limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. 4.2.0. CROP PRICES 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for kilogram maize was at Ksh. 47.3 a marginal increase of four percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46 (Figure 11). The price was stable in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.49 per Kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.33 per Kg. This can be attributed by the decreasing stocks at household level which is pushing up demand for maize. Figure 9: Cattle Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.55, which was similar as January (Figure 12). These prices are attributed to relatively stable maize prices and availability of stocks held by the retailers. The price was similar to the long-term average by four percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent at Kshs.111 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 124 (Figure 13). The price was attributed to harvesting of beans in the irrigated livelihood zone and influx of the commodity in the pastoral livelihood zones as the beans come from neighbouring Elgeyo marakwet county. The current prices are stable as compared to the long-term average. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.125 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade declined by eight percent in comparison to the previous month at 67 to stand at 62 currently (Figure 14). This was attributed to slight decrease in goat prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 97 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 56. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Fig.12: Posho prices 5.0.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4litres; which was a decrease of seven percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The milk consumption was highest in the pastoral livelihood zone at 1.7litres and lowest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 0.8 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term mean by 21 percent. Food Consumption Score About percent households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 31.7 in pastoral, 13.3 in fishing and 3.3 in agro pastoral livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 1.9, 23 percent households across the livelihoods poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones was stable as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 5.3 Health and Nutrition 5.3.1 Nutrition status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 13.42, as compared to the previous month at 13.92 (Figure 17). Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.8 and Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status 23.64 respectively. This was partly contributed by upsurge of malaria cases mainly in the pastoral livelihood zone. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria upsurge in Ilchamus ward and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household Level. No other major human disease incidences were reported during the month. 5. 4 COPING STRATEGIES Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was 13.88, a decrease compared to last month at 14.22 (Figure 18). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies followed by pastoral at 14.3 The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at four. The decrease in the coping strategies availability households level across all livelihood zones. Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 NON-FOOD INTERVENTIONS National Drought Management Authority Supported the community project inception meetings organized by ADS central rift in parts of Tiaty Coordinated the review of the contingency plan by the DRM unit and sectors supported by WFP Baringo County Government Integrated outreaches and mass screening-Tiaty subcounties-63 sites, BN-8, BS-8 and Mogotio 8 sites Sub-county coordination meetings done in East-pokot on 14th Nov, Tiaty was be done on 27th November Monitoring of outreaches done in November for Tiaty and December for BN, BS and Mogotio Monthly nutrition commodity prepositioning Implementation of Malezi bora weeks activities which includes vitamin A Supplementation Malaria support supervision Routine disease surveillance for livestock Promotion of pasture establishment and conservation Farmers sensitization of Agroforestry, perennial crop farming like fruits and early maturing crops such as beans, General sensitization on how to reduce post-harvest losses and aflatoxins Capacity building of communities on pastoral Field Schools Kenya Red Cross Society UNICEF FLEXI Phase II projects During this period, KRCS supported integrated medical outreaches in 3 outreach sites in malaria prone zones in East Pokot where a comprehensive health package of health services was provided comprising of; Immunization for children, Treatment of minor illnesses, Deworming, Nutrition screening, Nutrition supplementation, Referrals and link to BSFP during outreaches. During each outreach site all beneficiaries (beneficiaries in the programme plus new admissions) are screened for acute malnutrition, and oedema. The screening is done for the purposes of referrals to OTPSFP for management. Behaviour change communication is done through public health education to communities we support In the Month of Feb 2020, more than 150 pregnant women and lactating mothers screened by MUAC, 250 5yrs children screened on their nutrition status, immunisation and supplementation (more than 60 1yr reached, 1yr more than 100 immunized), more than 300 people reached through treatment of various ailments. UNICEF WASH Project Kenya Red Cross Society through support from UNICEF is carrying out emergency hygiene education targeting drought affected communities and schools. Did house to house hygiene promotion outreaches and follow ups through CHVsKRCS volunteers in the targeted interventions areas of Tiaty East, Baringo South, East Pokot sub counties Conducted 1 open community dialogue days on good hygiene practices (including hand washing at critical times) in Tiaty East, Baringo South sub counties School visitation on school health promotion formation of health clubs in Tiaty East, Baringo South sub counties (3 schs visited). Distribution of soaps and water treatment chemicals (PUR, Aqua tabs) in targeted schools Demonstration on hand washing, treatment of water, construction of simple pit latrine with local materials Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response-USAIDOFDA The project aims to improve the capacities of communities, county governments and KRCS to anticipate, prepare and respond to disaster risks. Planning quoter one activities to commence including community awareness meetings on disaster preparedness, mitigation and management targeting Baringo South, Baringo North, East Pokot and Mogotio Sub Counties. Plan to train of KRCS Staff and volunteers on community participatory approaches on DRR combination between Samburu and Baringo Supported Baringo County government to update Multi Hazard contingency plans cutting across all sectors Satellite Disaster Risk Reduction (SatDRR) project Project continues implemented with its aim to strengthened Kenyan disaster capacity for disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery through the proper application and utilization of UK satellite communication and Earth Observation services Conducted training on Satellite communication and usage satellite equipments. Relevant stakeholders trained include NDMA, DRM, and RCATs team. Response updates Responded to landslide in Baringo North Sub County where households whose shelters were completely destroyed were supported with NFIs. Coordination Supported Short Rains Assessment in Baringo County to reflect on food security status and effects of short rains Continue to engage with the county government through ministry of water and irrigation (Water dept.) On joint implementation of water treatment plant in Marigat, Baringo Sub County Supported updates of Multi hazard county contingency plan which was done from 16t to 21st Feb 2020 7.0 Emerging Issues 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Human-wildlife conflicts where number of livestock were killed as highlighted in the Table. Incidences of locust invasion was reported in kalabata, Barketiew, Tenges and salawa. High tensions insecurity experienced along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty as well as areas of kapedo and Amaya. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported during the month in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS The above normal October- November- December (OND) rains have consistently had a positive impact on forage and water availability; with good effects on the livestock body condition, milk availability and overall livestock sales prices, factors that contributed significantly to improved household incomes and purchasing power. Equally the on-going crop harvests, availability of local vegetables and milk will likely improve household dietary diversity and the nutritional security. The on-going safety net initiatives by the National; County government and all non state actors targeting pockets of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. The Current food and nutritional security situation will be bolstered further given the prevailing positive weather conditions in the County. Community members will need to exercise great care and safety precautions given the current massive rains and related flooding that may result into destruction of roads and loss access to essential services and death has been reported in Mogotio. The on-going lifeline messages on floods early warning by the National, County government and all non-state actors targeting pocket of the vulnerable and at high-risk households should be sustained across livelihoods in the affected livelihood zones. Baringo being a high risk Malaria and Rift Valley Fever Prone County the Ministry of Health and Livestock should take the necessary preventive measures of alerting the identified key hotspots on the likely Outbreak of these diseases that in the past have caused loss of life in the County. Mainly through awareness creation and prepositioning of the necessary medical supplies to manage outbreaks. The desert locusts have so far been reported in Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central, Tiaty and Mogotio sub counties. The affected wards are Tenges, Emining, Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Marigat, Ribko and Tirioko. There are fears that the swarms might have laid eggs in these wards and therefore the next generation of swarms to hatch will concide with the germination period of crops. If it so happens, farmers stand to loose their crop to the locusts. Animal Areas Reported Livestock Baboons Ribko, Akoret, Kolloa, Ngoron Shoats Akoret, Ribko, Kolloa Shoats Hyena Ribko, Akoret, Komolion Shoats Ngambo, Kiserian, Komolion Sheep 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1 General Recommendations: Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Provision of regular updates from the NationalCounty government to the communities affected by the desert locust through well customized communication material in the popular vernacular radio stations Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need for joint resource mobilization towards addressing food insecurity and under nutrition cases Continuous engagements to address under nutrition cases in in the county. 8.2 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega Dams taking advantages of surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of new boreholes in drought affected hard to reach communities Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources; water harvesting, construction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on Sanitation and hygiene, Water managementResources based Conflict resolution and management committees Prepositioning of fast moving spare parts for strategic borehole along migratory routes and areas of convergence during drought 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in Malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Provision for De-worming of all school going children 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water source e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic OM of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability Provision for De-worming of school going children 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Closely monitor the impact of desert locust to pasture and browse which may trigger earlier migration Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for Food and Mouth Disease Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Equipping of county-based ground control technical teams monitoring locust invasion to stabilize the food and nutrition security situation in the county Carry out an objective assessment on economic, environmental and social impact of the locust invasion Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2020 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal but with a declining trend. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 50-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and is expected to detorariate further with the ceasation of the short rains season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend due to reduction of water in the open water sources Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 83.07 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 12.07 12.47 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the performance of the rains was poor across the county. The county has been experiencing dry spells during the month as the short rains season ceased in the third dekad of November. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the month translating into 47 parcent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index is above long term means but on a declining trend for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is above the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This is due to the large amount of rainfall received in the previous months of the year under review. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). This has been contributed by the cumulative effects of above normal rains the county received in the previous months of the year. The dorminance of the prosopis species ( a very drought tolerant species) in pastoral and agro pastoral areas could be another contributing factor. The trend for the current VCI is above long term mean and lies within the maximum values for the month. However, the trend has started declining in December, partly due to the dry spells experienced in the last one month (Figure 4). Baringo South sub county has shown the sharpest decline in VCI trend for the month under review. Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture conditions are fair to poor mostly in pastoral and agropastoral areas (Figure 5). The most affected sub county is Baringo South where there are hardly any pastures on the ground. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good to fair both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 6) . However there are a few pockets of pastoral livelihood zone with poor browse conditions.The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans and rivers (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 60 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for two to three months in all livelihood zones due to the ceasation of the rains. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources increased by 15 from 3.4km the previous month to 3.9 km (Figure 8). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 11. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 5.3 km. The increase in distances is attributed to decrease of water levels in the open water sources in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones performance of the short rains season. Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2020 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by 22 percent at 7.3 km in comparison to the previous month at six km (Figure 9). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9.2 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.6 kilomitres. The return distances are above the long term average by six percent and this is attributed to deteroriating pastures and water conditions at the traditional grazing sites in the county. Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species (Figure 10). This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. However, the body condition is likely to start declining due to the worsening forage and water conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some of the reported cases includelumpy skin disease in Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties, CCPP in Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties and PPR in Baringo North sub county. Also some cases of rabies were reported in Baringo North sub county. 3.1.3 Milk Production average produced household per day was at 1.6 litres, a decrease of 11 parcent as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk produced of four litres while pastoral had the least at 2.1 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 20 percent and this has been contributed mainly by migration of livestock from the irrigated livelihood zone due to flooding menace. The livestock have been moved to safer areas thus leaving households with fewer animals to milk. Deterioration of forage and water conditions is also contributing to the low milk production. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers have harvested their maize in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The poor performance of the short rains season has affected planting activities. Most farmers have not bothered to plant for this season. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was a minimal increase in average price for medium-sized cattle as compared to the previous month at Ksh.19,542 (Figure 12). The price was above the long-term average by 20 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,000 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,251. The improved prices was as a result of prevailing livestock condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.3,042, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,075 (Figure 13). The price was above the LTA by five percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,500 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,600. The price stability is as a result of the prevailing good livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize is stable at Ksh. 40, compared to the previous month (Figure 14). The current prices are below the long- term average at this time of the year by six percent. The stability in prices can be attributed to availability of maize stocks at household level. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.42 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.47, similar compared to the previous month. (Figure 15). The price was below the long-term average by eight percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks both at household level and traders stores. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans decreased slightly by three percent from Kshs.117 last month to Ksh. 114 currently (Figure 16). The current prices are similar to the long-term average. Pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.122 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.80. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade for the month under review were stable in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 75.4 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by declining maize prices in comparison to goat prices.. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 98.3 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 69.3 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was a decline of 11 parcent as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 49 as compared to 51 the previous month. A proportion of 1.9, 25.2 and 72.9 percent of the households across the livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable food consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 38.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 19). This implies that they are skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable. About 95.1 percent of the sampled children were not malnourished while 4.6 and 0.2 percent were moderately and severely malnourished respectively (Figure 20). The situation was attributed to availability of food at household level especially meat during this festive period. Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant water bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 12.47 by December, the situation is stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 21). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 16.6 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 13.4. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.5. Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past six months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 21: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) Capacity building on Rangeland management. Purchase and distribution of baling equipment. Self Help Africa Training on Desret locust reporting and control measures Beaseline survey on groups and communities to be aaisted. County government Vaccination activities were carried out against the following diseases Lumphy Skin Disease- Tirioko, and Lower Mochongoi- 5,655 cattle vaccinated in Tiaty CCPP- Marigat, Ilchamus, and Loyamorok, Saimo soi, Barwessa and Mogotio- 8,642 goats vaccinated. PPR- Kabartonjo, Bartabwa, Saimo soi, Saimo Kipasaraman, BNorth-19,322 Rabies-Bartabwa,, Barwessa, Saimo Kipsaraman, Kabartonjo-213 LSD-Barwessa-Barwessa and Bartabwa-19,068 CCPP- Saimo soi-860 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration Livestock migration has been reported in arabal in baringo south, where the livestock are from Tiaty subcounty. With the prevailing conditions more livestock migration is espected due to declining pasture in the pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks are expected to remain stable and above long term means for the next one month due to the concluded harvesting of crops in the county. Traders stocks will also remain stable and above long term means due to stable supplies of cereals both within and without the county. Forage conditions are expected to deteriorate in the ne xt one month due to poor performance of the short rains season. Grazing distances are expected to increase as livestock migrate further in search of pstures. This is likely to affect livestock body condition adversely. The water availability and access is expected to continue deteriorating further due to poor performance of the short rains season. Access distances are likely to increase especially in pastoral areas. Water quality is expected to deteriorate due to contamination of water sources resulting from congestion at water points. Livestock prices are expected to be above long term means while cereal prices are expected to be below seasonal range, resulting in better terms of trade mostly for pastoral and agro pastoral households. Milk production and consumption is expected to decline due to deteriorating forage and water conditions in the county. Nutritio status is expected to remain stable due to availability of food and milk at the household level. The ongoing nutrition interventions will also likely assist in stabilising nutrition status in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Rehabilitation of brocken down water fasciliteis in the county Identification of schools and health fascilities that may require to be assisted with emergency water trucking in the event of water situation deteriorating further. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Adequate installation of hand washing fascilities in schools institution as a measure of fighting covid 19 pandemic. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination campaign against notifiable livestock disease to be enhanced across the county. Enhanced security survailance due to expected internal livestock movements in search of greener pastures, a scenario that may trigger inter communal conflict. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Increased survailance and monitoring of desert locusts as cases of secondary invasion are being reported in other counties.",
            "Baringo 2020 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2020 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 90-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and within the seasonal range. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most surface water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 112.4 80-120 VCI-3month 98.09 35-50 Of water in the water pan 90-100 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 11.67 10.27 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the performance of the rains was above normal compared to the previous seasons during the first two decads.The rains have significantly declined in the third dekad compared to the previous month and most parts of the county have been experiencing dry and hot weather condotions. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution During the first two dekads of the month under review, the county received enhanced rains averaging about 159 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). The peak of the rains was observed in the second dekad where the county received an average of 76 mm of rainfall compared to a seasonal average of 38 mm for a similar period. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 98.09. The current VCI corresponds to the maximum value ever recorded in the county. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummuletive effects of good rainfall performance for the better part of this year. The performance of the long rains season has been above normal and has extended in to the June- July- August season. This has contributed to the good conditions of the natural vagetation. The current conditions of forage are likely to be sustained up to the next rainfall season. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 3). These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for three months in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is good both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal range for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 90 percent to 100 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources has increased marginally to 2.8km from 2.5km in the subsequent month. (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of less than one kilomitre while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 2.7km. The stability in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihood zones due to the extended long rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was stable at 4.4km in comparison to the previous month at 4.5 km (Figure The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 5 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 1.4 kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing sites across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good across all livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the impact of the extended long rains season that has just ended. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable for at least three months from now. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. 3.1.3 Milk Production Milk production remained stable at 1.8 litres per household per day compared with the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood average production of 3.2 litres while pastoral had the least at 1.7 litres. The current milk production is below the LTAs by17 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently the maize is at harvesting stage in the irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones. Harvesting of beans and green grams is ongoing. Figure 8: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was at Ksh. 17,759 which was an increase of three percent compared to the previous month of Ksh. 17,167. The price was above the long-term average percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.23,667 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.16,056. The improved prices was partly due to partial reopening of markets. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.2,906, a slight increase compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,787 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by 11 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,483 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,450. The price increament is as a result of prevailing good body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize reduced by 15 percent from Ksh. 47 to Ksh. 41, as compared to the previous month. (Figure 11). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by 15 percent. The drop in price can be attributed to the ongoing maize harvesting both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.47 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure 9: Cattle Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.49, a reduction of nine percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh.54. (Figure 12). The price was below the long-term average by 11 percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to increased maize stocks both at household level and traders. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased marginally by five percent from Kshs.126 to Ksh. 120 currently (Figure 13). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of the commodity in the county. The current prices are similar to the long- term average Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.129 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade improved in comparison to the previous month. On average, a sale of one goat is able to fetch 59kg of maize compared to 51kg in the previous month (Figure 14). This was attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 75 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 51. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day has remained stable at 1.6 litres compared to the previous month (Figure 15). Milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.7 litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at 1.2 litres. The amount consumed was below the long-term. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, a proportion of 0.7, 19.6 and 79.7 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 30 percent of the households acceptable consumption (Figure implies that they are skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrion status by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.20 compared to the previous month at 13.17 (Figure 17). Kolowa and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 23.33 and 21.98 respectively. Figure 15: Milk Consumption Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county. By the end of August 2020, about 40 cases had been confirmed and are in isolation centres. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 11.67 by August, this was an improvement as compared to the previous month. Households in pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.9 followed by agro pastoral livelihood zone at 10.9. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past five months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 18). Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions About 650 households that were affected by floods around Lake Baringo have benefited from 15,000 tonnes of assorted food items donated by Spread Truth in collaboration with the National Youth Council. 6.2 Non food interventions National Drought Management Authority(NDMA) Due to effects of covid 19 pandemic, NDMA has initiated a new approach in taking of MUAC measurements which minimizes direct contact between the Field Monitors and the child. Use of family MUAC tapes has been rolled out whereby caregivers will be incharge of taking the measurements themselves. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No major issues related to insecurity were reported during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Household food stocks are expected to be near normal to above normal following a favourable crop season that has just ended. Household are expected to replenish their stocks from the ongoing harvest. The stocks should be able to sustain households and extend into the next rainfall season. Milk production will be sustained within normal range due to the prevailing good livestock body condition. Household incomes mostly in pastoral areas are expected to decline due to market disruptions following imposition of Covid 19 restrictions. Income from livestock sales will be the most affected as over 90 percent of livestock markets are likely to remain closed or operate below capacity. Maize prices will continue to decline as households in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones resort to consuming own production. Terms of trade are likely to be favourable to pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods due to expected low maize prices. Household milk utilization will be normal to above normal following an improvement in milk production. Consumption rate of household stocks will be above normal as students are expected to stay at home due to the existing Covid 19 restrictions. Some pockets in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties are expected to have challenges with regard to sanitation and hygiene due to floods that have resulted in displacement of households, sinking of latrines and contamination of water sources. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain low and stable. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection across the county should be enhanced. Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs is needed especially for the displaced populations due to the impact of floods. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Continous engagement with caregivers on how best to make use of family muac tapes is needed so as to improve the quality of nutrition data. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Equiping of livestock markets with proper sanitation and hygiene fascilities for the control of covid 19. This will enable the authorities to reopen the markets gradually and ensure the safety of all market Actors. Hay harvesting, bailing and storage should should be promoted given that there is a possibility of the county having drought next year following the prediction of a depressed short rains season by the meteorological department 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Equipping of farmers with proper knowledge and skills on how to minimize post harvest loses at this time when they are harvesting their crops from farms. Farmers are advised to invest in proper storage fascilities as the expected yield is expected to be above normal. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2020 countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2020 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2020 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains in April. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at 60-70 Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is good in both quality and quantity and is expected to remain stable until the next rainfall season. Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is within the normal seasonal range. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period. At least 11 wards are affected with swarms of desert locusts that pose high risk to crop production. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently slightly below normal seasonal ranges due to marginal decrease in livestock prices and increase maize prices. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and stable due to recharge of most water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is minimal and stable. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 85.07 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.7 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges At Risk () 13.65 13.86 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season was normal and took place in the first dekad of March. The county has since then received significant rains that are above normal compared to the previous seasons. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received above normal rains mostly in the second decad (Figure 1). Both temporal and spatial distribution was good across all the livelihood zones. The rains have resulted in flash floods in some pockets of the county resulting in destruction of property and loss of lives. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal (Figure 2). The vegetation condition index for the county is 85.07. The above normal greenness has been attributed to the cummulative effects of good rainfall performance for the last few months. The performance of the long rains season has been above normal and this is contributing to good conditions of the natural vagetation. 2.1.1 Field observations 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture condition is poor to fair both in quantity and quality in the pastoral livelihood zones and fair to Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index good in the agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones (Figure 3). These conditions are normal at this time of the year. The current pasture is expected to last for one month in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated livelihood zones. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is fair to good both in quantity and quality in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and good in the irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 4). The condition is normal as compared to seasonal ranges for this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Pasture Condition Figure 4: Browse Condition 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihoods were rivers, water pans and traditional river wells (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 70 of their full capacity. Water quality quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is good, which is normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for over five months in all livelihood zones due to the ongoing rains 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.4km, which was a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month at 4.1km (Figure 6). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 34 percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.7 km. The decrease in distances is attributed to the recharge of open water sources across all livelihoods due to the ongoing long rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access There was a marginal increase in return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points by three percent at 6.4 km in comparison to the previous month at 6.2 km (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 7.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance kilomitres. The return distances are still below the long term average and this is attributed to availability of pastures and water at the traditional grazing zones across all livelihood zones. Figure 5: State of water Sources Figure 6: Water Source Trekking Distances Figure.7. Water Source Grazing Distance 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair across all livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by availability of enough pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones as a result of the ongoing rains. The current livestock body condition is expected to remain stable until the end of the current rainfall season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Foot and mouth disease cases are present in Baringo North sub county particularly in Barwessa region. Minimal CCP and CBP diseases were reported in all livelihoods, which is normal. The livestock department has concluded livestock vaccinations and treatment of these cases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.6 litres, which was stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had an average of 2 litres while agro pastoral had the least at 0.6 litres. The current milk production is within the normal range. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have planted their farms with the ongoing long rains season across all livelihood zones. The presence of desert locusts in the couty pose a risk to the young germinating crops. Some pockets in the county have also experienced flooding which is likely to damage crops. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle decreased marginally by two percent at Ksh. 16,884 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 17,204. The price was above the long-term average by 23 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.24,333 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,000. The decrease in prices was due to closure of markets across the county. Figure 8: Milk Production Figure 9: Cattle Prices 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh. 2,644 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,946 (Figure 10). The price was above the LTA by 12 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,100 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,250. The decreasing prices were as a result of closure of markets. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average price for a kilogram of maize increased by seven percent at Ksh. 51.7, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. Ksh. 48.5 (Figure 11). The price was slightly high in comparison to the long- term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.55 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. The trend can be attributed to the decreasing stocks at household level which is pushing up demand for maize. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.58.1, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at Ksh.54.3. (Figure 12). These prices are attributed to relatively inreasing maize prices and diminishing of stocks held by the retailers. The price was slightly above the long-term average by one percent. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Figure.10: Goat Prices Figure.11: Maize Prices Figure 12: Posho prices The average price per kilogram for beans increased by six percent from Kshs.114.2 to Ksh. 121.51 currently (Figure 13). The price increase was attributed demand inputs including planting seeds during this planting season The current prices are stable as compared long-term average. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.123 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. 4. 3 Livestock Price RatioTerms of Trade The terms of trade declined by 16 percent in comparison to the previous month. The terms are currently at 51.2 from 60.5 previously, (Figure 14). This was attributed to increase in maize prices and decreasing goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 67.1 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 50. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was a slight decrease of seven percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The milk consumption was highest in the fishing livelihood zone at 2 litres and lowest in agro pastoral at 0.6 litres. The amount consumed was below the long- term mean by seven percent. Figure 13: Beans Prices Figure 14: Terms of Trade Figure 15: Milk Consumption Food Consumption Score About 4.5 percent of the households reporting poor food consumption were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 35.8 percent, 23.3 percent and 16.7 percent in pastoral, fishing and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Generally, a proportion of three (3), 29.3 and 68.7 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable at 13.65 compared to the previous month (Figure 17). Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 25.25 and 22.5 respectively. This was partly contributed by diarrhoea cases experienced in these areas. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. There is heightened sensitization campaigns on the preventive measures to be adopted by the communities against the corona virus disease. So far no positive cases have been identified in the county. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index is stable at 13.86, compared to last month at 13.63 (Figure 18). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 23 followed by pastoral at 14.5 The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms at The stability in coping strategies was due to availability of food at households level across all livelihood zones. Figure 16: Food Consumption Score Figure 17: Nutrition status Figure 18: Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross (KRCS) In collaboration with the Ministry of Health, County administration, and other stakeholders, Red Cross supported sensitization on Covid-19 prevention and response precaution measures for effective health communication to communities. KRCS, Disaster Risk Management (DRM) department did awareness creation to communities living in hotpots zones prone to landslides and flash floods to move to higher ground to ensure that they are safe to perennial disaster (flooding) and more so to minimize mortalities among the population, due to ongoing heavy rainfall across the county causing flash floods (R. Endau, R. Nginyang, R. Perkera, R.Molo). KRCS responded to collapse of a quarry in Eldama Ravine with First aid services, psychosocial support where two lives were lost, one sustaining injuries. KRCS RCATs supported Search and Recovery mission in Baringo North Sub County, Saimo Soi ward, Yatya sub location where a lorry of security personnel with 12 pax was swept away by flash floods in Kagir River. Currently, there is ongoing joint rapid assessment conducted by KRCS, NDMA with support from administration too on current effects of flooding in the county which has Baringo south, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Baringo North sub counties Baringo County Government Surveillance and monitoring of the areas where locust swarms have roosted to see if there are any hatchlings of hoppers to control them, especially along the Kerio Valley and Mogotio Sub County 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county has received above normal rains in the last decad of March. These has resulted in flash floods being experienced in some areas. Some lives and properties have been lost. Some of the affected areas are in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North sub county. Other hot spots are in Baringo South, Mogotio and Eldama Ravine sub counties. High tensions of insecurity was experienced along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty as well as areas of Kapedo and Amaya. This has led to displacement of people in areas of Nataan, Chemoe and Yatya to Kipsaraman in Baringo North. The county is still experiencing the desert locust menace. Some of the affected wards include Tenges and Kapropita wards in Baringo Central sub county, Emining ward in Mogotio sub county,Saimo Soi and Bartabwa wards in Baringo North sub county, Mukutani and Marigat wards in Baringo South sub county, Ribko, Tirioko, Tangulbei and AmayaChuro wards in Tiaty sub county.Minimal damages have been reported on crops and forage affecting approximately farming 650 households. The corona virus disease pandemic in the country is causing some scare in the county as unprecedented measures are being applied in a bid to control it. This has disrupted social lifestyles of the community and has the potential to affect food chain systems such as market operations, production systems among others. Close monitoring of food markets is ongoing. 7.2 Migration There have been no cases of livestock migrations reported in the county; however, most livestock are still at the traditional wet season grazing zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the long rains season is expected to have a positive impact on various sectors of food security. The recharge levels of various water sources is expected to improve. Therefore access distances to watering points both for domestic and livestock consumption are expected to decline significantly. Farmers have done timely planting of their seasonal crops while forage resources are expected to get better in terms of quality and quantity.However, the precense of the desert locusts in the county is likely to reverse the expected gains in the agriculture sector.So far the locusts have been reported in all the six sub counties of Baringo affecting about 11 wards. There are fears that the swarms might have laid eggs in these wards and therefore the next generation of swarms to hatch will concide with the germination period of crops. If it so happens, farmers stand to loose their crop to the locusts. Markets functionality is likely to be affected by the outbreak of the corona virus disease in the country.The ongoing measures to control the disease have affected the normal social lifestyles of the people and therefore affecting supply of goods and services in the markets. Furthermore, the county government has ordered the closure of open air markets in a move to enhance social distancing. Livestock body condition is expected to be stable due to availability of adequate forage and water. This is therefore expected to enhance livestock productivity in terms of milk production, carcuslive weight among other livestock production indicators. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.1. General Recommendations: Close monitoring of food prices is required due to market disruptions that are being caused by the Covid19 pandemic. The information will assist in finding out the impact of the pandemic on food security at the household level. Resource Mobilization for capacity strengthening, surveillance, control and assessment of the social economic and environmental impact of desert locust invasion in affected sub-counties Provision of regular updates from the NationalCounty government to the communities affected by the desert locust through well customized communication material in the popular vernacular radio stations Establish a multi sectoral and multi-disciplinary team of professionals that will develop post invasion strategies to support locust invaded farming communities and rehabilitate affected rangelands Strengthen cross-border coordination and prioritize effective locust control measures at cross-border invasion sites. Strengthening sector specific drought preparedness and resilience building initiatives at Sub-County and community level. Regular County and Sub- County drought coordination, monitoring and reporting meetings with emphasis on the nature of on-going interventions partnerships and resources gaps Need for joint resource mobilization towards addressing food insecurity and under nutrition cases Continuous engagements to address under nutrition cases in in the county. 8.2.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.2.1. Water Sector Construction of climate proofed strategic water sources in under-provided areas to ensure optimum coverage through construction of mega dams taking advantages of surface water runoff, water supplies systems, Drilling and equipping of new boreholes in drought affected hard to reach communities Capacity building of community water management committees as well as formation of water user associations. Rehabilitate existing water sources, water harvesting andconstruction of underground cisterns Sensitization of communities on sanitation and hygiene, water managementresources based conflict resolution and management committees 8.2.2. Nutrition and Health Enhance sensitization campaigns on preventive measures against corona virus disease (Covid 19). Initiate and roll out IMAM surge model and link with early warning information Intensify Nutrition Surveillance and service provision in the hard to reach areas to support case findings through nutrition and health outreaches through partnership with stakeholders Strengthen the technical and human resource capacity for health care workforce in health and nutrition service delivery through technical trainings. Intensify disease surveillance especially in areas where there is upsurge in malaria cases Support hygiene and sanitation health campaigns (health promotion) Provision for de-worming of all school going children 8.2.3. Education Equip schools with roof catchments and covered storage tanks and cisterns Pipeline extension to schools that are neighboring permanent water sources e.g. boreholes and river intakes Training of board of management on basic operation and maintanance of water supply systems and roof water harvesting system for sustainability Provision for De-worming of school going children 8.2.4. Livestock and Veterinary sector Closely monitor the impact of desert locust to pasture and browse which may trigger earlier migration Infrastructure development in feeder and main livestock markets Improvement of livestock market information system Promote production and storage of hay as well as strengthening of capacity on use of crop residue as forage Community sensitization on need for commercial off-take Carry out routine disease surveillance and vaccination over notifiable diseases to ensure normal livestock market operations especially for foot and mouth disease Provide for strategic disease control infrastructure, and promote inter-county and cross border disease surveillance and control mechanisms 8.2.5. Agriculture Sector Equipping of county-based ground control technical teams monitoring locust invasion to stabilize the food and nutrition security situation in the county Carry out an objective assessment on economic, environmental and social impact of the locust invasion Support development of integrated water and soil conservation infrastructure for crop production Support cultivation of drought tolerant and early maturing crops Promote water harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes Support development of risk management institutions such as cereal banks Support strategic post-harvest management of crops REFERENCE TABLES Table 3: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency environmental Agricultural pastoral indicators are within seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental least production indicators outside seasonal ranges Environmental, Metrological Production indicators outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 4: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 5: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs when biophysical drought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysical and at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range."
        },
        "DEWS_2021": {
            "Baringo 2021 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2021 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the first two dekads of August which was charecterised by poor distribution. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal across all sub counties The water levels in most water sources are below normal at 50-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and above long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges . Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is stable and below the long term Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 58.42 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 58.16 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.60 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 2.78 Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 14.08 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 13.46 19.0 48.25 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution During the month under review, off season light rains were observed totalling to 63 percent of the normal rains during the first two dekads (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was fair to poor across all the livelihood zones, with the bulk of the rains being received in the highlands. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is above normal compared to the long term average. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term mean and this is as a result of the poor performance of the long rains season. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 58.42. The VCI for Eldama Ravine sub county is below the long term mean and showing a declinind trend compared to other sub counties (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure 5: Pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are mostly fair to poor condition. (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South ( Kiserian), kinyach in baringo North and Tiaty where the pastures are poor due minimal and poorly distributed rains received. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to good conditions. The current pastures are expected to last for more than one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was fair both in quantity and quality pastoral agropastoral livelihood zones except in some pockects of the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 6). Browse condition was good in the irrigated livelihood zone. The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers and water pans, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 60 percent of their full capacity though in the pastora; livelihood zone, most pans had less than 40 parcent of their holding capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor to fair, which is not normal at this time of the year. Notable livestock migration towards Lake baringo in order to access water was observed .The current open water sources are expected to last for two month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure 8: Water access Figure 9: Grazing distances 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.7 km, with a decrease of eight percent in comparison to the previous month at kilometres (Figure distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 33 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitres while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.6 km. The decreasing distances are attributed to sporadic rains received during the month. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at 7 km, which was a decrease of five percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 9). The current distances are above the long term mean by 42 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. decline return distances are attributed to the ongoing pasture regeneration in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Figure 11: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly moderate in all livelihood zones for the cattle species, This has been occasioned by slow regenaration of pasture, browse and improved water availability across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue improving due to the impact of off season showers. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) and lumpy skin disease across all the livelihood zones. FMD was reported in Kollowa, Loiwat, Sirinyo and parts of Ravine. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 1.4 litres an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month at 1.3 litres (Figure 11).The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. The increase has been contributed the calving period. Agro pastoral had the highest average of three litres while irrigated cropping has the least average of 1.1litres The current milk production is below LTAs by 34 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Harvesting of maize crop is ongoing but the yield is expected to be less than 50 parcent of the long term mean and this was contributed by poor performance of the long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 14: Maize prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. current average price medium-sized cattle 16,203 a minimal decrease of four percent comparison previous month. (Figure 12). The price was above the short-term average by nine percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.28,167 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.13,848. The least prices in the pastoral livelihood zone is due to outbreak of FMD that has affected the livestock volumes in the markets. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,624, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,675 (Figure 13). The price was similar to the short term average (STA). The prices were highest in Fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,533 and lowest agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,100. The stability in price is as a result resumption of markets oprations in the pastoral zones mostly in Tiaty areas. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current maize prices decreased slightly by two percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh 45kg (Figure 14). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by three percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to availability of maize stocks at the household level in the mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county and start of harvesting in irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zone. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.46 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Figure 13: Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 51kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 52kg (Figure 15). The price was below the short- term average by two percent. The decrease in prices was attributed to decreasing maize prices. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 54 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 45. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans has remained fairly stable at Ksh 124 compared to the previous month (Figure 16). The current prices are above the short-term average by seven percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.129 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The stability in prices was attributed to stable supplies in the local markets. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 58.8 which was steady in comparison to the previous month whereby a sale of one goat was able to fetch 58.6 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to relatively stable maize prices and goat prices. The current terms trade better comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 84.8 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 46.7. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption average consumption household per day was at 1.3 litres, which was below the long term average by 25 percent (Figure consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.7 litres and lowest in Fishing livelihood zone at one litre. Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an Acceptable Food Consumption Score of 48.25 which was a minimal rise as compared to 46 for the previous month. A proportion of two, 26 and 72 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. The Pastoral ,Fishing, Irrigated and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 45,49,50 and 66 average food consumption Score respectively (Figure 19). About 39 parcent of the households in the Pastoral livelihood zone do not have acceptable food consumption score and this could be due to low purchasing power for accessing adequate nutritious food. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 15 percent. This was an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month. The cuurent proportion is above the LTA by six percent and this is being contributed by poor food consumptiom at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 Figure 21: Children at risk of malnourished by family MUAC Figure 22: Coping strategy index By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 9.9 percent; this was a minimal increase as compared to the previous month at 9.5 percent. (Figure 21). 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are still ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.46 which was a decrease compared to the previous month at 14.19. Households in pastoral livelihood employed more coping strategies at followed Pastoral livelihood zone at 14.6 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.6 (Figure Overall, households Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Self Help Africa They are supporting the revival of eight irrigation projects in the county. They are also supporting pasture harvesting and conservation whereby targeted beneficiaries are being supported with pasture seeds. The targeted beneficiaries are being supported with livestock breed improvement whereby they intend to offer some galla goats and Sahiwal cattle breeds. They are also supporting rangeland rehabilitation and development of four irrigation projects. Self Help Africa distributed two tons of green grams, 700 kg of sorghum and 400 kg of millet. About 400 lead farmers were also trained in different value chains Action Aid There was a training for village agents for financial inclusson in Tngulbay ward. CMDRR trainings were done in ChuroAmaya ward Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by DL- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is ongoing targeting over 400 groups in the county. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is ongoing in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county. There is rehabilitation of several boreholes and drilling of new ones in the county. Those undergoing rehabilitation include Chemorogion, Sibilo and Kagir while those being drilled include karimo,usonachun and Barameres Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Agriculture Sector Provision of certified affruitation seedlings in Baringo north, south and central, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty sub counties. Purchase by household orange sweet potato vines Baringo north, south and central, Mogotio, EldamaRavine and Tiaty sub counties. Livestock sector Provision of Galla bucks and Sahiwal bulls to groups targeting 800 households across the county Provision of pasture seeds (2,500 kgs) and pasture harvesting tools in Baringo south, central, north, Tiaty and Mogotio targeting 200 households. Vaccination against CCPP, PPR and diseases surveillance in Baringo north, central and south targeting 2,000 households Water sector Rehabilitation of brocken boreholes in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration Minimal livestock migration towards Lake Baringo in search of water for livestock is being reported . 7.3 Food security prognosis Crop production is expected to be lower than normal due to poor rainfall distribution as at least 50 percent of the crop has failed following the ceasation of the long rains season at the time when the crops were still at a tender age that required watering. The off season rains received during the month under review are expected to stimulate limited pasture and browse regeneration in some parts of the county Milk production and consumption is expected to improve marginally but remain below long term means. This is due to the expected forage improvement due to the impact of the off season rains. Following the reopening of livestock markets in Tiaty sub county, food access is expected to imprve as the purchasing power of the pastoral households is expected to improve as a result of livestock sales. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. The food consumption score will likely improve in the next one month due to improvemt in household milk consumption while application of coping strategies are expected to be normal compared to the current month under review. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support of intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health-. Training of care givers in the sentinel sites on how to use family MUAC tapes for monitoring of nutrition status of children in line with COVID-19 protocols. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated on the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas and continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially farm ponds and water pans for food production especially kitchen gardening Enhance irrigated agriculture by conducting soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2021 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received some showers during the month mostly Mixed farming livelihood zone. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal across all sub counties The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and above long term means Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and a declining trend due to impact of off season rains. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is stable and below the long term PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 66.42 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 58.16 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.60 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 2.78 Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 13.67 14.08 13.97 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution During the month under review, the County did receive sporadic off season rainfall showers across the various livelihoods with the high lands in the Mixed farming livelihood zone receiving the bulk of the rains. The rains were mostly received during the first two dekads of the month. Figure 1:Rainfall perfomance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 Figure 3: Pasture conditions 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 2). The VCI is currently at 66.42. This has been contributed by off season showers experienced in the county for the last few months. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones are mostly fair to poor condition. (Figure 3). The most affected subcounties are Baringo South areas of Kiserian, kinyach in baringo North and Tiaty where the pastures are poor due to minimal and poorly distributed rains received and invasive species that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to good conditions. The current pastures are expected to last for more than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated livelihood zone . Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 Figure 4: Browse conditions Figure 5: State of water sources Figure 6: Water access 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was fair both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones while good in the Irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 4). The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers and water pans, (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair to poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.8km, which was a slight increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month at 3.7km (Figure 6). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of 1.8 kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.9 km. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 Figure 7: Grazing distances 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at seven kilomitres, which was similar compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The current distances are above the long term mean by 39 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.6 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 2.4 kilomitres. The stability in return distances are attributed to the ongoing pasture regeneration in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2021 Figure 9: Milk production Figure 8: Livestock body condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly moderate in all livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 8). This has been occasioned by gradual regenaration of pasture, browse and improved water availability across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue improving due to the recently received off season rains. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) and lumpy skin disease across all the livelihood zones. FMD was reported in Kollowa, Loiwat, Sirinyo and parts of Ravine. A few cases of goat deaths in the Pastoral livelihood zone were picked by the NDMA survailance system which are associated with these diseases. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 1.6 litres, an increase of 14 percent as compared to the previous month at 1.4 litres (Figure 9).The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 3.2 litres while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone has the least average of 1.8 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 16 percent though there is an increasing trend due to the prevailing fair livestock body condition. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The poor performance of the rainfall season led to less than 50 parcent of the acreage being put under cultivation for various crops compared to the long term means. The maize in the Irrigated livelihood zone have been harvested, while in the mixed farming livelihood zone farmers are harvesting maize crop.. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 Figure 10: Cattle prices Figure 12: Maize prices Figure 11: Goat prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh. 16,722 a minimal increase of eight percent in relatation to the previous month at Ksh. 16,203. (Figure 10). The price was above the short-term average by 10 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.28,333 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.13,639. The low prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone is due to poor livestock body condition resulting from poor regeneration of pastures. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,635, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,624 (Figure 11). The price was slightly below the short term average (STA). The prices were highest in Fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,500 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,100. The stability in price is as a result of resumption of markets oprations in the Pastoral zones mostly in Tiaty areas coupled by the good body condition of goats.. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current maize prices are stable in comparison to the previous month at Ksh 44kg (Figure 12). The current prices are slightly above the short-term average at this time of the year by one percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to harvesting season in the county . Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.46 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.38 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 Figure13: Posho prices Figure 14: Beans prices Figure15:Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 50kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 51kg (Figure 13). The price was above the short-term average by two percent. The stability in prices was attributed to stable maize prices. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 52 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 42. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased by two percent as compared to the previous month , a kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.127 from Ksh.124 (Figure 14). The current prices are above the short-term average by 23 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.132 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The change in prices was attributed to scarcity of the commodity with the Pastoral livelihood zone depending on the neoghbouring Elgeyo marakwet county for the supply. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 59.3 which was a marginal increase in comparison to the previous month at 58.8 (Figure 15). This has been attributed to stability in maize and goat prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by nine percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 84.6 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 46.7. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 Figure16: Milk consumption Figure17: Food consumption score Figure 17: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litre, a rise of eight percent as compared to the previous month, which was below the long term average by 18 percent (Figure 16). Milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones at 1.9 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 1.8 litres. Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 49 which was a minimal rise as compared to 48.25 for the previous month. A proportion of 0.4, 25.6 and 74 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. The Pastoral ,Fishing,Irrigated and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 45.9,54.3,50 and 64.9 average food consumption Score respectively (Figure 17). This has been contributed by ongoing interventions by partners especially in the Pastoral zone. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 13.67 percent (Figure 17). This was a minimal decrease as compared to the previous month. The cuurent proportion is above the LTA by three percent. The improving nutrition status attributed increasing milk consumption at household level and intervention by partners especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 Figure 18: Children at risk of malnourished by family Figure 19: Coping strategy index family MUAC, proportion children malnourished was 8.3 percent; this was a decrease of 1.6 percent as compared to the previous month at 9.9 percent. (Figure 18). The current proportion is above the long term average by 2.2 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are still ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.97 which was stable compared to the previous month at 13.46. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 19.2 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.1 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at three (Figure 19). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions NDMA in collaboration with Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and the County Government of Baringo jointly participated in the review of the county livelihood zones. Data analysis is ongoing and the updated livelihood maps will be ready for use next year. NDMA supported the DPP sustainability review consultant mission, NDMA participated in Joint ME activities for the call for proposal (CfP) projects World Food Program WFP through the Sustainable food systems programme supported 4500 houeholds with cash Tranfers amounting to 22,500,000 Self Help Africa They are supporting the revival of eight irrigation projects in the county. They are also supporting pasture harvesting and conservation whereby targeted beneficiaries are being supported with pasture seeds. The targeted beneficiaries are being supported with livestock breed improvement whereby they intend to offer some galla goats and Sahiwal cattle breeds. They are also supporting rangeland rehabilitation and development of four irrigation projects. Self Help Africa distributed two tons of green grams, 700 kg of sorghum and 400 kg of millet. About 400 lead farmers were also trained in different value chains SHA supported organized training for selected FPG representatives Action Aid There was a training for village agents for financial inclusson in Tngulbay ward. CMDRR trainings were done in ChuroAmaya ward Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by DL- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is ongoing targeting over 400 groups in the county. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is ongoing in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county. There is rehabilitation of several boreholes and drilling of new ones in the county. Those undergoing rehabilitation include Chemorogion, Sibilo and Kagir while those being drilled include karimo,usonachun and Barameres Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices-ongoing Advocacy meeting with WFP programme to support Nutrition commodities for treatment of moderate acute malnutrition,support refresher training of health workers Training of 100 community health volunteers from Tiaty westEast,Mogotio.Baringo south,and Baringo North supported by SHA to support nutrition education sessions at the community level School health and nutrition clubs started in Tiaty west Pupils are trained on health and nutrition modules to train parents at home-supported by WVI-Lokis (BMZ project) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The spill over effect of conflict in the neighbouring Laikipia county are being felt in parts of Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties. In Baringo South, the most affected area is Mukutani ward where a number of livestock have been stolen by cattle rustlers. This is likely to affect livestock access to pastures and water due to the prevailing insecurity challenges. 7.2 Migration There were no livestock migration during the month. However the livestock that migrated to Komolion in Tiaty sub county and those from Kiserian areas to Loruk area sorounding Lake Baringo are still there. 7.3 Food security prognosis The off season rains that were experienced in the month under review are expected to stabilize availability of pastures and water for livestock for the next one month and therefore sustaining favourable livestock body condition. Milk production and consumption is expected to remain below long term mean but with an improving trend for the next one month. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia county are expected to spill over to Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The food consumption score will likely improve in the next one month due to improvemt in household milk consumption while application of coping strategies are expected to be normal compared to the current month under review. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Septrmber 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health-. Training of care givers in the sentinel sites on how to use family MUAC tapes for monitoring of nutrition status of children in line with COVID-19 protocols. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2021 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received slightly above normal rains during the month under revie but charecterised by poor spatial and temporal distribution. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal across all sub counties The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 40-50 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and above long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is stable and below the long term Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80 -120 VCI-3month 76.48 35 - 50 Of water in the water pan 40 - 50 50 - 60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition 4 - 5 3 - 4 Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 69.2 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.64 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 3.58 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 12.72 13.67 MUAC by family tape 13.84 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks, preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received slightly above normal rains during the month under review translating into 114 percent of the normal rains, with the bulk of the rains being received in the first dekad. (Figure 1). The rains were mostly concentrated in the high land areas that constitute mostly the Mixed farming livelihood zone. In terms of distribution, both temporal and spatial distribution were fair to poor across the livelihood zones.The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is above normal. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term means as shown in Figure 2. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 76.48. The high VCI values have been contributed by the off season rains received over the last few months. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are in fair to poor conditions. (Figure 4). The most affected subcounties are Baringo South areas of Kiserian, Kinyach in Baringo North and Tiaty where the pastures are poor due minimal and poorly distributed rains received and invasive species such as prosopis that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to good conditions. The current pastures are expected to last for more than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse conditions during the month under review was mostly fair both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones except in some pockects of the Pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 5) while good in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Browse conditions Figure 4: pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 40 to 50 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair. The current open water sources are expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.9 kilometres, which was stable in comparison to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by nine percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood recorded least trekking distance of 1.8 kilometres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.9 kilometres. Some pockets within Tiaty county experiencing water stress as a result of rainfall distribution. The instability in distances are attributed to poor distribution of the rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at 6.8 kilometres, a decrease of three pecent as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The current distances are above the long term mean by 20 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 7.8 kilometres while Irrigated livelihood recorded shortest average distance of two kilometres. The decline in return distances are attributed to the ongoing pasture regeneration and recharge of the water sources in the county. Figure 6: State of water sources Figure 7: Water access Figure 8: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 Figure 10: Milk production Figure 9: Livestock Body Condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly moderate in all livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 9). This has been occasioned regenaration pasture, browse improved water availability across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue improving due to the rainfall showers received earlier during the month under review. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever(ECF), foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi Wakulima, Ngoswe and Kapkuikui and lumpy skin disease(LSD) in Kabarnet, Kapropita ward, Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia. Logumgum and longewan have also been mapped as active hotspot for FMD. The NDMA survailance system has picked up some cases of goat deaths associated with diseass in Yatia areas in Baringo North sub county . 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 1.6 litres, this was similar as compared to the previous month at 1.4 litres (Figure 10).The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. The increase has been contributed the calving period. Agro pastoral had the highest average of 3.3 litres while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average of 1.5 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 16 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have planted short term crops such as beans, greengrams, water melon and vegetables. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 Figure 13: Maize prices Figure 12: Goat prices Figure 11: Cattle prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.17,074 a minimal decrease of two percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 16,722. (Figure 11). The decline in prices could be associated with reduced market vibrancy in Tiaty areas associated with the spill over effects of conflict in the neighbouring counties. The price was above the short-term average by six percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.28,000 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,347. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat increased marginally by six percent from the previous month at Ksh.2,635, to Ksh. 2,806 currently (Figure 12). The price was slightly above the short term average (STA) by two percent. The prices were highest in Fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,500 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2100. The improving prices is as a result the stable body conditons. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a minimal increase in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month at Ksh 45 per kg (Figure 13). The current prices are slightly above the long- term average at this time of the year by six percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to the concluded harvesting in the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 47 per kg due to insecurities along the Kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of Kollowa market, while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.32 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 Figure16:Terms of trade Figure 15: Beans prices Figure14: Posho prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 52 per kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 50 per kg (Figure 14). The increase in prices was attributed to insecurities along the Kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of kollowa market. The price was above the short-term average by six percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 55 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 40. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans was similar to the previous month, a kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.127 (Figure 15). The current prices are above the short-term average by 19 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.134 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The high prices are attributed to scarcity of the commodity and the Pastoral livelihood depending neighbouring Elgeyo marakwet county that is currently facing insecurity challenges along the Kerio Valley zone. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 62 which was an increase in comparison to the previous month at 59 (Figure 16). attributed increasing goat prices and slightly stable maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long- average percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 92 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 47. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 Figure18: Food consumption score Figure17: Milk consumption 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litre , which was same as last month and is below the long term average by 15 percent (Figure consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones at 1.8 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 1.2 litre. Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 49 which was comparable to the previous month. A proportion of 1.5, 21.6 and 76.9 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable food consumption scores respectively. The Pastoral, Fishing, Irrigated and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 45.2, 55.4, 50.6 and 63.8 average food consumption score respectively (Figure 18). This has been contributed by ongoing interventions by partners especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone and availability of food at household level. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at risk of malnutrition during the month was 12.72 percent (Figure 19). This was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 13.67. The cuurent proportion is below the LTA by three percent. The improving nutrition status is contributed availability consumption household level intervention by partners especially in the Pastoral areas. Figure 19: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 Figure 20: proportion of malnourished Children by family Figure 21: Coping strategy index By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 7.7 percent; this was a decrease of 0.6 percent as compared to the previous month at 8.3 percent. (Figure 20). The current proportion is above the long term average by 3.1 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are still ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.84 which was a decrease compared to the previous month at 13.97. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 18.4 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.2 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.5 (Figure 21). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions World Food Program WFP through the Sustainable food systems programme supported 4500 houeholds with cash Tranfers amounting to 22,500,000 Self Help Africa They are supporting the revival of eight irrigation projects in the county. They are also supporting pasture harvesting and conservation whereby targeted beneficiaries are being supported with pasture seeds. The targeted beneficiaries are being supported with livestock breed improvement whereby they intend to offer some galla goats and Sahiwal cattle breeds. They are also supporting rangeland rehabilitation and development of four irrigation projects. Self Help Africa distributed two tons of green grams, 700 kg of sorghum and 400 kg of millet. About 400 lead farmers were also trained in different value chains SHA supported organized training for selected FPG representatives Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by desert locust- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is ongoing targeting over 400 groups in the county. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is ongoing in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county. Provision of Improved chicken, and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Intergrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Training groups Livestock Upgrading through HelpAfricaFarming SsystemsKenyaSsustainable Agriculture Information Initiatives(SHAFSKSAII) Training of Women and Youth in Groups on Beekeeping and Meat goat value chain development through Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme II(ASDSP II) Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices-ongoing Advocacy meeting with WFP programme to support Nutrition commodities for treatment of moderate acute malnutrition,support refresher training of health workers Training of 100 community health volunteers from Tiaty westEast,Mogotio.Baringo south,and Baringo North supported by SHA to support nutrition education sessions at the community level School health and nutrition clubs started in Tiaty west Pupils are trained on health and nutrition modules to train parents at home-supported by WVI-Lokis (BMZ project) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were no livestock stock migration during the month. However the livestock that migrated to Komolion in Tiaty sub county and those from Kiserian areas to Loruk area sorounding Lake Baringo are still there. In Mukutani ward,the livestock that had moved to Arabal areas have been forced to move back to their traditional grazing zones due to insecurity issues. Insecurity cases were reported along the kerio valley which has resulted in disruption of kollowa market. 7.3 Food security prognosis The off season rains that were experienced in the month under review are expected to stabilize availability of pastures and water for livestock for the next one month and therefore sustaining favourable livestock body condition. Milk production and consumption is expected to remain below long term mean but with an improving trend for the next one month. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, areas such as Tiaty sub county will experience water stress for the next one month as the off season rains have not performed well due to poor temporal and spatial distribution. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to spill over to Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. The food consumption score will likely improve in the next one month due to improvemt in household milk consumption while application of coping strategies are expected to be normal compared to the current month under review. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health-. Training of care givers in the sentinel sites on how to use family MUAC tapes for monitoring of nutrition status of children in line with COVID-19 protocols. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2021 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month under review. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal across all sub counties. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: Field observations indicates forage is mostly in fair to poor conditions Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Livestock migrations were reported in Tiaty sub county Access indicators Terms of trade are below the seasonal long term average Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal range. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is above the seasonal long term average. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and below normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 69.16 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 69.82 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 15.59 12.51 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 13.79 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October. Thereafter, the rains disappeared and the county was experiencing dry spells up to the last dekad of November. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 48 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). In the last dekad of the month, the county received moderate rains which were mostly concentrated in the high lands. In terms of distribution, both temporal and spatial distribution was poor. In the high land areas, moderate rains were received for less than five days during the last dekad while in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, light showers were observed for less than five days in few places. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is normal. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below both the long term mean and the bad year as shown in Figure 2. This is due to cumulative rainfall failures for the last three seasons. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 4: pasture conditions 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 69.16. The VCI trend for Mogotio, Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties are on a declining trend even though they are still above the long term mean. However, despite the fact that the VCI shows a rowsy picture, forage conditions on the ground mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are in poor conditions due to poor rainfall perfomamce. This has been compounded by the presence of invasive species such as prosopis which have suppressed regeneration of undergrouth vegetation. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones are in fair to poor condition. (Figure 4). The most affected subcounties are Baringo South areas of Kiserian, Kinyach in Baringo North and the entire Tiaty sub county. This has been contributed by the poorly distributed rains and the presence of invasive species that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in good to fair conditions and on a deteriorating trend.. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in the Irrigated livelihood zone. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 7: Water access Figure 5: Browse conditions 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition (both quantity and quality) during the month under review was mostly in fair to poor conditions in the Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones except in some few pockects (Figure 5) while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the browse was mostly in good condition.. The current browse condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The key water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, traditional wells and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.2 km, an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 13 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of 2 kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 6.1 The increase in distances are attributed to poor recharge of water sources. Figure 6: State of water sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 8: Grazing distances 2.2.3 Livestock access average return distance livestock from grazing fields to watering points increased by 16 percent in relation to the previous month and is currently at 6.8 km (Figure 8). The current distances are above the long term mean by 32 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.4 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance kilomitres. increase return distances attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 10: Milk production Figure 9: Livestock Body Condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly thin with foreribs visible in all livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 9). This has been occasioned by poor regenaration of pasture, browse and increased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. About four percent of the cattle are in poor conditions and are to be found in the Pastoral livelihood zone and nclude areas in Silale ward and ChuroAmaya wards. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating expected worsenin of forage conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi wakulima, Ngoswe, Logumgum, Longewan and kapkuikui while lumpy skin disease has been reported in Kabarnet,Kapropita ward,Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia areas. The NDMA survailance system has also picked some cases of goat deaths in Orus area of Tangulbei ward of Tiaty sub county accounting for about seven percent of the goats owned in the area. 3.1.3 Milk Production average produced household per day during the month under review was 1.6 litres, this was similar as compared to the previous month (Figure 10).The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 2.8 litres while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average of one litre. The current milk production is below LTAs by 16 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have planted short term crops such as beans, greengrams, water melon and vegetables. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 13: Maize prices Figure 12: Goat prices Figure 11: Cattle prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh.16,561 a minimal decrease of three percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 17,074. (Figure 11). The decrease in prices is due to the decliniung livestock body conditions .The price was relatively similar to the short- term average by six percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.25,667 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,231. The least prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone is partly being contributed by poor livestock body condition coupled by conflict in some areas such as Kollowa ward that leads to market disruptions. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat reduced by five percent compared to the previous month and now stands at Ksh 2,767 (Figure 12). The price was below the short term average (STA) by six percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,200. The falling prices are partly due to market disruptions that are associated with conflict in the Pastoral livelihood zone as well as impact of livestock diseases. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a minimal increase in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month and is at Ksh 46kg (Figure 13). The current prices are slightly above the long-term average at this time of the year by six percent. The increasing maize prices can be attributed to declining stocks of the commodity in the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.48 per kg due to insecurities along the kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of kollowa market, while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.40 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure16:Terms of trade Figure 15: Beans prices Figure14: Posho prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 54kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 52kg (Figure 14). The increase in prices was attributed to increasing maize prices. The price was above the short-term average by nine percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 60 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh. 50. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans is similar to the previous month whereby a kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.124 (Figure 15). The current prices are above the short-term average by 12 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.130 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The high prices are attributed to decline in stocks in the county. Conflict parts of Pastoral livelihood zone is also affecting supply chennels of the commodity. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 58 which was a decrease in comparison to the previous month at 62 (Figure 16), implying that a household is fetching 58kg of maize after selling one goat compred to 62kg last month. This has been attributed to decreasing goat prices with a corresponding increase of maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 17 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 80 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 46. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure18: Food consumption score Figure17: Milk consumption Figure 19: Nutrition status by MUAC 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litre which was similar compared previous month, and was below the long term average by 18 percent (Figure 17). Milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral Pastoral livelihood zones at 1.6 litres lowest Irrigated livelihood zone at 1.2 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 46 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 49. A proportion of 5.6, 27 and 67.4 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively as compared to 1.5, 21.6 and 76.9 in the month of October. The Pastoral ,Irrigated, Fishing and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 41.3, 49.7,51.8 and 61.8 average food consumption scores respectively (Figure 18). The trend of food consumption score is on a worsening trend as more households are shifting to poor and borderline consumption scores especially in Pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to declining food stocks at household level as a result of increasing cereal prices. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 16 percent (Figure 19). This was a hike as compared to the previous month at 13. The cuurent proportion is above the LTA by 27 percent. The worsening nutrition status is contributed to minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Figure 21: Coping strategy index Figure 20: proportion of malnourished Children by family By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 12 percent; this was an increase of of 4.5 percent as compared to the previous month at 7.7 percent. (Figure 20). The current proportion is above the long term average by 7.4 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones mostly in Mogotio and Eldama Ravine sub counties. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are still ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 14 which was a marginal decrease compared previous month. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 16 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.5 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.5 (Figure 21). Overall, households Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The office of Interior and Coordination through the office of the County Commissioner distributed 3,000 bags (50kg bag) of rice and 3,000 bags beans (50kg bag) in beneficiaries spread in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central and Tiaty sub counties. The World Food Program (WFP) made a cash transfer targeting 4, 488 households spread in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo Central and Baringo South sub counties whereby each recipient received Ksh 5,000 under the WFP Assistance Program. The Kenya Red Cross society assisted 3, 036 households with cash transfer whereby each beneficiary received Ksh 5,000 under USAIDBHA Drought Response Program- CVA. The beneficiaries were spread in Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross The Sky Bird Regional Micro Project aims at improving sanitation status of households at risk of floods in Baringo South sub county. It will start in November 2021 to October 2022. Another program is Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response -by USAIDBHA (Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance) which is a Response Program- CVA and its key intervention is to contribute to improved food security and resilience of drought affected communities in Baringo County. The other upcoming health projects in the county includes ECHO COVID- 19 vaccination roll out across the county. There is an upcoming project on livestock off take which will target the most affected hot spots in the county. Self Help Africa They have carried out promotion of sorghum, cassava and green grams. On livestock breeding, they have distributed galla bucks in October and they are planning to procure doper and Sahiwal bulls. They have done trainings on kitchen gardens to various women groups and also did the Lishe bora initiatives and mother to mother support group. Rehabilitation of water sources in Baringo North and Tiaty was done and have distributed 30 water tanks. Action Aid They have carried out a capacity building for 100 women groups, purchased pasture seeds, trained the women groups on kitchen gardens (10 groups in Tangulbei ward and 10 in ChuroAmaya ward). Agriculture Sector Restoration of livelihoods destroyed by hazards- Done by Programs and development partners through provision of assorted relief seeds Support to Nutrition sensitive interventions through capacity Building and provision of planting materials for kitchen gardening and household water harvesting by County Government of Baringo, National Government, FAO, WFP, Red Cross, ACTED, WVK and NCCK Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is on-going targeting over 400 groups in the county With the support of FAO, the depertment is distributing 4,500 bags of range cubes (25kg bag) targeting 1,125 beneficiary households spread in Tiaty, Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is on-going in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 Training of groups on Livestock Upgrading through Self HelpAfricaFarming Systems KenyaSustainable Agriculture Information Initiatives(SHAFSKSAII) Training of Women and Youth in Groups on Beekeeping and Meat goat value chain development through Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme II(ASDSP II) Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition Vaccination against COVID 19 Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages (wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level is ongoing Implementation of agri-nutrition activities to boost the resilience of the vulnerable groups and improve nutrition education knowledge School health and nutrition clubs in 10 schools-Tiaty west IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties CLTS plus trachoma elimination in Tiaty and parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties Coordination activities ongoing both at sub county and county level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were livestock migration during the month. In Tiaty sub county, the livestock were reported to be moving to West Pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture. The livestock that migrated to Komolion in Tiaty sub county and those from Kiserian areas to Loruk area sorounding Lake Baringo are still there. Tension is rising between the communities living on the border between Marakwet East and Tiaty sub counties following an incident in which four Marakwets were shot dead by bandits and about one hundred herds of cattle stolen on Friday 26th November 2021. This incident is likely to affect food supply between the Pokots and the Marakwets communities. Insecurity incidents emanating from Laikipia County is being felt in Tiaty areas whereby Amaya market, which is the main source of food supply for the local communities living within Churo ward , was adversely affected. Until now, the basic food commodities that were mainly supplied by the traders from Ol Moran area in Laikipia County are not available. The Makutano-Mukutani conflict at the border between Baringo South (Marigat) and Tiaty East Sub- Counties is yet to be resolved. Because of the conflict, trade between the neighbouring communities has been affected adversely. 7.3 Food security prognosis Although some parts of the county did experience some light showers towards the end of the month, the impact on food security will be minimal. In the high land areas that received the rains, surface based water bodies have received minimal recharge and therefore water availability and access will improve marginally. In the Pastoral areas, the performance of the rains was very poor and any little waters that were captured by the water pans are likely to be lost through evaporation due to the prevailing high temperatures. If the showers are not sustained, even the little forage that is remaining will likely get depleted through decay as termites will feed on them. Livestock migration is likely to pick up in Tiaty sub county as the traditional dry season grazing grounds are not available due to insecurity challenges that are being experienced both within and in the neighbouring counties. Livestock body condition for cattle is likely to worsen in the Pastoral livelihood zone and therefore affecting livestock productivity in terms of milk production. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to spill over to Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To Equip the already drilled boreholes Purchase new water boozers and to repair and service the old ones To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Health facilities closed due to lack of staff to be given staff Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups Promote school health and nutrition clubs in schools 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Stockpiling of livestock feed supplements in reddiness for any emerging drought contition Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Mar 2020 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2021 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is normal but with a declining trend. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are within the seasonal range and on a declining trend. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend due to reduction of water in the open water sources Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is on an increasing trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 15.3 12.89 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, rainfall performance was poor compared to the previous seasons. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 40 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index is marginally above long term means but on a declining trend for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is slightly below the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This is due to poor performance of the rains during the month under review. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 42 and on a decling trend as compared to the previous month at 51.8. The trend for the current VCI lies within the long term mean and is on a declining trend across all the sub counties (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture conditions are diminishing in pastoral and agropastoral areas (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South ( Kiserian) and Tiaty where there are hardly any pastures on the ground. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 6) . However there a few pockets of irrigated pastoral livelihood zones with good browse conditions.The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, rivers and boreholes (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one to two months in all livelihood zones due to the prevailing water conditions. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 4.5km the previous month to 4.7km (Figure 8). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 2 kilomitre while pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average of 5.8 km. The increase in distances is attributed to decrease of water levels in the open water sources in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones due to poor performance of the short rains season. Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by six percent at 8.8 km in comparison to the previous month at 8.3 km (Figure 9). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 10.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The return distances are above the long term average by six percent attributed deteroriating pastures water conditions at the traditional grazing sites in the county. Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin Mar 2020 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair in irrigated livelihood zone and a few parts of agro pastoral livelihood zone while fair to poor in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by diminishing pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue deteriorating due to the worsening forage and water conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were few disease cases reported. The diseases reported could not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des Petits Ruminanta (PPR) was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.1 litres, a decrease of 21 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk produced of three litres while pastoral had the least at 3.1 litres. The current milk production has declined significantly due to deterioration in forage and water conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers have prepared their farms in all livelihood zones in anticipation of the long rains. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was decrease of 5.4 percent in average price for medium- sized cattle as compared to the previous month at Ksh.17,309 (Figure 12). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by 32 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,000 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,037. The reduction in prices was as a result of declining livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.2,667 , as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,867 (Figure 13). The price was above the STA by 14 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,783 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,050. The decline in price is as a result of disruption of markets due to the ongoing security operations in parts of the pastoral livelihood zone. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a rise of three percent in the current average price for a kilogram of maize at Ksh.45.7, compared to the previous month at 44.3 (Figure 14). The current prices are faintly below the long-term average at this time of the year. The increase in prices can be attributed to declinig of maize stocks at household level. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.49 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.32 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.54.1, an increase of four compared to the previous month at Ksh. 52.2. (Figure 15). The price was marginally above the short-term average. The increase in prices was attributed to increasing maize prices. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh. 56 while the irrigated cropping has the least average prices of Ksh. 40. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased by three percent from Kshs.122.2 last month to Ksh. 126.3 currently (Figure 16). The current prices are above the long-term average by 15 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.131 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The increase in prices was attributed to purchasing of the seeds in preparation of the planting season. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade declined by 10 percent for the month under review in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 58.3 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by increasing maize prices in comparison to decreasing goat prices.. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 96 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 54.5 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at one litre, which was a decrease of 23 percent compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.8 litres and lowest in fishing livelihood zone where there was no milk consumed by households. The amount consumed was below the long- term average partly due to reduced milk production irrigated fishing livelihood zones. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 47 as compared to 48.17 the previous month. The Avearage Food Consumption Score has been on a declining trend for the past three months. A proportion of 1.5, 30.6 and 67.9 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 44.9 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 19). This was as a result declining household food stocks and purchasing power. Figure 18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable as compared to the previous month whereby about 92 percent of the sampled children were not malnourished while 7.8 and 0.2 percent were moderately and severely malnourished respectively in comparison to the previous month (Figure 20). 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 12.89, an increase as compared to 12.3 the previous month (Figure 21). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17.4 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.6 .Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past six months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 20: Nutrition status Figure 21: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross KRCS continued to participate at the coordination mechanisms; National Task force on vaccine roll out and its technical sub committees Nationally and the counties. National Government and various counties have reached to KRCS for support on the rolls out. KRCS provided tents to some health facilities for the inoculation process at Kabarnet referral hospital. Distribution of relief food to 750 families in Mukutani (400 households) and Chemorongion (350households) Distribution of family NFI kits to 14 families in Kapedo centre. Evacuation and referral of 12 gunshot casualties. 2 casualties managed onsite while 10 were referred to various hospitals in Nakuru. A total of 482 persons reached with MHPSS and PFA support to the affected individuals andor families. The concerns noted included anxiety, grief, loss of properties and indicators of post-traumatic stress disorder. The areas visited entails; Arabal (group session to 10 teachers, 150 students); Kapedo- individual sessions to 2 (a teacher and 1male who were injured) and group session to 180 persons displaced; Nattan (group session to approximately 120 displaced people); Siratta and Chemorongion (three families that lost their animals) and; staff and volunteers reached- 17 Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by desert locust- Supply of farm inputs (Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Nutrition Sensitive and Food Utilization initiatives are being undertaken Livestock sector Livestock upgrading programs Capacity strengthening to Youth groups and communities on pasture, beekeeping and trainings Provision of pasture seeds Provision of beehives Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, LSD. Capacity building of Farmers and staff. Water sector Water trucking Borehole rehabilitation COVID 19 PVC Tanks Installations Pre-positioning Construction of New water Projects Drilling and Equipping of boreholes Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The security operation that had been going on in parts of Tiaty sub county have been temporarily been suspended for 30 days in order to give the community a chance to voluntarily surrender illegal arms and allow peace to prevail 7.2 Migration There were minimal Livestock migration from Kinyach, Baringo North to the hilly sides in search of pastures the migrations reported in arabal in baringo south, where the livestock are from Tiaty subcounty. With the prevailing conditions more livestock migration is espected due to declining pasture in the pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the long rains has delayed but the Metereologicl depertment has forecasted that the County should be receiving the rains by early April. It is therefore expected that the immediate impact of the rains will be the decline of trecking distances to water points by both households and livestock as open surface based water sources will get recharged by surface runoff. Regenaration of forage resource is expected to take place following the expected onset of the long rains leading to a reduction in grazing distances which in turn will lead to stabilization of livestock body condition in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Milk production is expected to remain below long term means but should be able to start picking up by the end of next month as livestock body condition improves. Planting of the long rains crops is expected to commence in April with the onset of the season. With the ceasation of security operations in parts of pastoral areas mainly Tiaty sub county, food access is expected to improve as market functionality is expected to resume to normality. The coming into effect of the new COVID-19 restrictions is likely to cause a reduction in household incomes due to the expected lay offs in certain economic sectors such as hospitality industry as remmitances from persons working in this sectors will be greatly be affected. Nakuru county which has been placed under lock down serves as one of the major sources of goods, services and income for the residents of Baringo county and therefore the flow of household incomes will be hampered significantly. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector 15 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 18 No. community water supplies Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc Water trucking to vulnerable Institutions and Communities 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Review of contingency plans, Response plan Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Carry out data quality audits 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector -Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR -Disease surveillance Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; in ward level 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Hay harvesting and baling machinery Provision of COVID-19 control facilities and like masks, water washing tanks and related sanitizers -Covid 19 sensitization at markets 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling",
            "Baringo 2021 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2021 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county experienced mostly dry spells during the month under review The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal across all sub counties The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 40-50 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Some livestock death cases which are drought related have been reported in the pastoral areas. Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and above long term means Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on a declining trend due to rains received in May. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is stable and below the long term Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 55.49 35-50 Of water in the water pan 40-50 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) Numerous No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.38 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, rainfall performance was poor compared to the previous seasons. The county has been experiencing dry spells for the better part of the month. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 49 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1).The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is slightly above normal. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term mean but slightly above the bad years as shown in Figure 2 and this has been occassined by poor performance of the long rains season. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in the county (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 55.49 . The VCI trend for Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties have been slightly below the long term mean but are on an increasing trend following the rains received in the previous month. (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are in fair to poor conditions (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South ( Kiserian), kinyach in baringo North and Tiaty where the pastures are poor due to poor rainfall perfomance. In the irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to good conditions. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and one to two months in irrigated livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month was fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones except in some pockects of the pastoral livelihood (Figure 6).The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one to two months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, traditional river wells and water pans, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 40 to 50 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for one month in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.1 km, a decrease of five percent in comparison to the previous month at five kilometres (Figure 8). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by nine percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitres while pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest average kilomitres. The decrease in distances is attributed to minimal rains received during the previous month. Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at 8.4km, which was equivalent to the previous month (Figure 9). The current distances are above the long term mean by 36 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 10.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. stability return distances are attributed to the ongoing pasture regeneration in the county. Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition livestock condition mostly borderline, thin fore ribs visible and emaciated in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones for all the livestock species, moderate neither thin nor fat and good smooth appearance in the irrigated livelihood zone and a few parts of agro pastoral livelihood zone. This has been occasioned by regenaration of pasture, browse and improved water availability across the livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) and lumpy skin disease across all the livelihood zones. Vaccination against CCPP is ongoing across the county. The NDMA survailance system has also picked up some cases of livestock death that can be attributed to drought and livestock diseases in the pastoral livelihood zone. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.1 litres, and this was similar to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. The current milk production is below LTAs by 31 percent and this has been contributed by poor livestock body conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The poor performance of the rainfall season led to less than 50 parcent of the acreage being put under cultivation for various crops compared to the long term means. The uneven moisture distribution in the soils has led to poor germination of crops and in some places like in the marginal mixed and the agro pastoral livelihood zones, crops are showing moisture stress. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh.16,583. The prices are on declining trend in comparison to the previous month (Figure 12). The price was above the short-term average by 27 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.25,667 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,717. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,646, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,596 (Figure 13). The price was above the short term average (STA) by 12 percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,517 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,700. The stability in price is as a result of stable livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current maize prices are relatively stable compared to the previous month at Ksh 47kg (Figure 14). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by 11 percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to availability of maize stocks at the household level in the mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.49 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.35 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was stable at Ksh 55kg compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The price was below the short-term average by seven percent. The stability in prices was attributed to stable maize prices. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 56 while the irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 40. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans was stable as compared to the previous month, a kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.124 (Figure 16). The current prices are above the short- term average by six percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.129 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.93. The stability in prices was attributed to completion of the planting thus less demand for the commodity. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 57 an increase of five percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a sale of one goat was able to fetch 54 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 85 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 43. Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.1 litre, which was below the long term average by 28 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in fishing livelihood zone where there was no milk consumed by households. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated and fishing livelihood zones. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 48 which was stable as compared to 47 for the previous month,. A proportion of two, 34 and 64 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 42 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 19). This has been contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 13.6 percent. This was a decrease as compared to the previous month and is being contributed by the nutrition interventions by the ministry of health especially in the pastoral areas. By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 9.6 percent; this was a decrease compared to the previous month at 10.3 percent. (Figure 21). Figure 21: Children at risk of malnourished by family MUAC Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.34 which was a minimal increase compared to the previous month at 13.23. Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17.8 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14.7 while the irrigated employed least coping mechanisms at 2.5 (Figure 22). Figure 22: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross KRCS continue to participate at the coordination mechanisms; National Task force on vaccine roll out and its technical sub committees Nationally and the counties. KRCS provided tents to some health facilities for the inoculation process at Kabarnet referral hospital. Distribution of relief food to 750 families in Mukutani (400 households) and Chemorongion (350 households) Distribution of family NFI kits to 14 families in Kapedo centre. Self Help Africa They are supporting the revival of eight irrigation projects in the county. They are also supporting pasture harvesting and conservation whereby targeted beneficiaries are being supported with pasture seeds. The targeted beneficiaries are being supported with livestock breed improvement whereby they intend to offer some galla goats and Sahiwal cattle breeds. They are also supporting rangeland rehabilitation and development of four irrigation projects. Self Help Africa distributed two tons of green grams, 700 kg of sorghum and 400 kg of millet. About 400 lead farmers were also trained in different value chains Upgrade of local livestick breeds targeting cattle and goats through Farming Systems Kenya. About 300 galla goats and 14 bulls were issued to beneficiary communities in Tiaty sub county. Action Aid Support Tangulbei women network to push for establishment of Baringo climate change strategy and County climate change Fund law. Training of village Agents on financial inclussion Build the capacity of Tangulbei Disaster management committee on early warning and early action integrating NDMA monthly bulletins into community productive and livelihoods systems. Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR) trainings were done in ChuroAmaya and Tangulbei wards. Psychosocial and counselling support was offered to 70 community members in Mukani ward. Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by DL- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is ongoing targeting over 400 groups in the county. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is ongoing in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county. There is rehabilitation of several boreholes and drilling of new ones in the county. Those undergoing rehabilitation include Chemorogion, Sibilo and Kagir while those being drilled include karimo,usonachun and Barameres Water sector There is rehabilitation of several boreholes and drilling of new ones in the county. Those undergoing rehabilitation include Chemorogion, Sibilo and Kagir while those being drilled include karimo,usonachun and Barameres Rehabilitation of Endao and Cheratike irrigation schemes is ongoing. Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages (wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level is ongoing Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Carry out data quality audits Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were livestock migration towards Komolion in Tiaty sub county while in Baringo South sub county, livestock were being moved from Kiserian areas to Loruk area sorounding Lake Baringo. In Mukutani ward,the livestock that had moved to Arrabal areas have been forced to move back to their traditional grazing zones due to insecurity issues. 7.3 Food security prognosis Crop production is expected to be lower than normal due to poor rainfall distribution as there is a possibility of crop failure following the ceasation of the long rains season at the time when the crops were still at a tender age that requires watering. Pasture conditions are expected to degenerate while browse conditions are likely to remain stable in the next one month. Milk production and consumption is expected to remain below long term means due to poor livestock body condition. Food access will continue to be a challenge in parts of Tiaty sub county due to the ongoing security operations which has rendered markets to operate below normal. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition are likely to continue rising due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to low purchasing power, poor market functionality and low milk consumption. The food consumption score will continue to deteriorate in the next three months due to poor dietary diversity with the most affected areas being in the pastoral livelihood zone. Households in the pastoral livelihood zone are likely to apply more coping strategies in accessing food in the next one month due to poor access to food sources. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health-. Training of care givers in the sentinel sites on how to use family MUAC tapes for monitoring of nutrition status of children in line with COVID-19 protocols. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated on the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2021 JULY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the first two dekads of July but declined in the third dekad. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal . The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 50-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Some livestock death cases associated with diseases were reported Access indicators Terms of trade are stable and above long term means Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on a declining trend due to off season rains. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is stable and below the long term Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 107.8 80-120 VCI-3month 54.31 35-50 Of water in the water pan 40-50 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 47.62 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.38 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 3.77 Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 13.86 16.30 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 14.19 19.0 46.69 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance During the month under review, off season rains were observed totalling to 96 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was fair across all the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is slightly above normal. 1.1.2 Cumulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term means and the bad year as well as shown in Figure 2. This has been due to the poor performance of the two previous rainfall seasons. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in the county (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 54.31 The VCI trend for Mogotio and Baringo South sub counties has been slightly below the long term mean with a declining trend (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are in fair to poor conditions (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South ( Kiserian), kinyach in Baringo North and Tiaty where the pastures are poor due to poor rainfall perfomance. Even though the VCI indicates above normal greenness in the pastoral areas, it should be noted that most areas in this zone are covered by invasive species particularly the prosopis species, which do not allow any undergrouth to flourish and therefore affecting forage availability. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to good Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 conditions. The current pastures are expected to last for more than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month was fair both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones except in some few pockects (Figure 6) while good in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers and water pans, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 60 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for two month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was four kilometres, which was a decline compared to the previous month at five kilometres (Figure 8). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 14 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of five kilometres. The decrease in distances is attributed to rains received during the month. Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at 7.4km, which was a decrease of 12 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 9). The current distances are above the long term mean by 42 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.8 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance kilomitres. decline return distances are attributed to the ongoing pasture regeneration in the county as a result of the off season rains. Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly moderate in all livelihood zones other than the Pastoral areas for the cattle species (Figure 10). This has been occasioned by regenaration of pasture, browse and improved water availability across the livelihood zones. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, the livestock body condition is poor to fair for cattle due to poor forage conditions.The body condition is likely to improve if the off season rains perfoms well. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) and lumpy skin disease across all the livelihood zones. Vaccination against CCPP is ongoing across the county. The NDMA survailance system has also picked up some cases of livestock deaths of 5-7 percent of animals owned within the sampled households involving cattle that can be attributed to poor feeding and livestock diseases in the pastoral livelihood zone. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month increased by 30 percent as compared to the previous month at 1.3litres (Figure 11).The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. The increase has been contributed by improving livestock body conditions. The current milk production is below LTAs by 34 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The poor performance of the rainfall season led to less than 75 parcent of the acreage being put under cultivation for various crops compared to the long term means. About 50 percent of crops in the county mainly maize has failed as a result of moisture stress and therefore the expected maize yield will be about 45 percent of the LTA of the long rains crop. Crop pests of fall army worms have attacked at least 20 percent of the crop in the field, the main sub counties affected being Eldama Ravine and Baringo Central. Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Figure 11: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh. 16,854. The prices are on an improving trend compared to the previous month (Figure 12). The price was above the short-term average by 18 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.27,667 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,117. The stability in prices was as a result of slight improvement in livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,675, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,645 (Figure 13). The price was above the short term average (STA) by three percent. The prices were highest in Fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,783 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,900. The stability in price is as a result of resumptions of market oprations in the Pastoral livelihood zone mostly in Tiaty areas. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current maize prices increased slightly compared to the previous month at Ksh 45.6kg (Figure 14). The current prices are below the long-term average at this time of the year by seven percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to availability of maize stocks at the household level in the mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.49 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.38 per Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Figure 12: Cattle price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 52.2kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 55.4 (Figure 15). The price was below the short-term average by seven percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 57 while the irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 42. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans is stable compared to the previous month at Kshs.124 (Figure 16). The current prices are above the short-term average by seven percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.129 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The stability in prices was attributed to completion of the planting thus less demand for the commodity. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 56.7 an increase of five percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a sale of one goat was able to fetch 54.1 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 80.2 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 44.7 Figure 17:Terms of trade Figure 15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.1 litre, which was below the long term average by 28 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in fishing livelihood zone where there was no milk consumed by households. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated and fishing livelihood zones. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 46 which was a minimal drop as compared to 48 for the previous month. A proportion of two, 29 and 69 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. The Pastoral livelihood zone had a significant proportion of households without acceptable food consumption score and was consistent for the last four months (Figure 19). This was contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households among other factors. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, households have acceptable food consumption score as a result of availability of adequate cereal stocks carried over from the long rains season of 2020. Income emanating from sale of seed maize in Irrigated cropping zone also contributed in maintaining acceptable food consumption score. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 13.86 percent. This was a increase of five percent as compared to the previous month. The cuurent proportion is below the LTA by two percent and this is being contributed by the nutrition interventions by the ministry of health especially in the pastoral areas. Figure 18: Milk consumption Figure 19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 family MUAC, proportion children malnourished was 9.5 percent; this was a marginal decline as compared to the previous month at 9.6 percent. (Figure 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 14.19 which was an increase compared to the previous month at 13.34. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 18.6 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.4 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.5 (Figure 22). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 22: Coping strategy index Figure 21:Family MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector Provision of certified affruitation seedlings in Baringo north, south and central, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty sub counties. Purchase by household orange sweet potato vines Baringo north, south and central, Mogotio, EldamaRavine and Tiaty sub counties. Livestock sector Provision of Galla bucks and Sahiwal bulls to groups targeting 800 households across the county Provision of pasture seeds (2,500 kgs) and pasture harvesting tools in Baringo south, central, north, Tiaty and Mogotio targeting 200 households. Vaccination against CCPP, PPR and diseases surveillance in Baringo north, central and south targeting 2,000 households Water sector Rehabilitation of brocken boreholes in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. Health and Nutrition A SMART survey was done in Tiaty sub county with the objective of determining the nutrition status of children aged 6- 59 months old and Women of reproductive age 15-49 Years. Vitamin A and Zinc supplementation was done across all health fascilities in the county. Mass vaccination against measles and reubella was also done. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration Miniml livestock migrations were reported in the county. Livestock markets were reopened in Tiaty sub county after having been closed for the past six months due to insecurity. This is expected to improve purchasing power of pastoral households due to livestock sales. 7.3 Food security prognosis Crop production is expected to be lower than normal due to poor rainfall distribution as at least 50 percent of the crop has failed following the ceasation of the long rains season at the time when the crops were still at a tender age that required watering. The off season rains received during the month under review are expected to stimulate pasture and browse regeneration and hence improve forage availability across the county, leading to marginal improvement in milk production. Milk production and consumption is expected to improve marginally but remain below long term means. This is due to the expected forage improvement due to the impact of the off season rains. Following the reopening of livestock markets in Tiaty sub county, food access is expected to imprve as the purchasing power of the pastoral households is expected to improve as a result of livestock sales. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power, poor market functionality. The food consumption score will likely improve in the next one month due to improvemt in household milk consumption while application of coping strategies are expected to be less compared to the current month under review. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health-. Training of care givers in the sentinel sites on how to use family MUAC tapes for monitoring of nutrition status of children in line with COVID-19 protocols. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated on the type of animals that can survive during drought season in while continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated agriculture by conducting soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production Enhance crop pest control against fall army worms which continues to ravage farmers crops.",
            "Baringo 2021 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2021 JANUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal but with a declining trend. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and is expected to detorariate further with the ceasation of the short rains season. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are within the seasonal range and on a declining trend. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend due to reduction of water in the open water sources Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is on an increasing trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 67.78 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 16.6 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month of January, the performance of the rains was poor across the county. The county has been experiencing dry spells during the month . 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 26 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index is marginally above long term means but on a declining trend for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is slightly below the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This is due to the early ceasation of the rainfall during the previous season Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 67.78 but on a decling trend as compared to the previous month at 83.07. The trend for the current VCI is above long term mean and lies within the maximum values for the month. However, there is significant decline on the trend of the VCI in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties during the month of January due to the dry spells experienced in the last one month (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture conditions are poor mostly in pastoral and agropastoral areas (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South and Tiaty where there are hardly any pastures on the ground. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor both in quantity and qualy across all livelihood zones (Figure 6) . However there are a few pockets of irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones with poor browse conditions.The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock human consumption across livelihood zones were traditional water wells, water pans and rivers (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one to two months in all livelihood zones prevailing water conditions. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased by 10 percent from 3.9 km the previous month to 4.3 km (Figure 8). The distances are slightly below the long term average (LTA) by five percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.6 km. The increase in distances is attributed to decrease of water levels in the open water sources in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones performance of the short rains season. Figure 7: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo County Brwse conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 2.2.3 Livestock access average return distance livestock from grazing fields increased by 13 percent at 7.9 km in comparison to the previous month at 7.3 km (Figure 9). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 10 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The return distances are above the long term average by four percent and this is attributed to deteroriating pastures and water conditions at the traditional grazing sites in the county. Figure 9: Grazing distances 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair in irrigated livelihood zone and a few parts of agro pastoral livelihood zone while its fair to poor in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by diminishing pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue declining due to the worsening forage and water conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were few disease cases reported. The diseases reported could not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.5 litres, a decrease of six percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk produced of four litres while pastoral had the least at 2.1 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 17 percent and this has been contributed mainly by migration of livestock from the irrigated livelihood zone due to flooding menace. The livestock have been moved to safer areas thus leaving households with fewer animals to milk. Deterioration of forage and water conditions is also contributing to the low milk production. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The poor performance of the short rains season affected planting activities thus most farmers did not have good harvests. Currently farmers have prepared their farms in all livelihood zones in anticipation of the long rains. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo County Livestock body condition Borderline, fore ribs not visible, 12th and 13th ribs not visible Moderate, neither fat nor Good smooth appearance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was a minimal decrease in average price for medium-sized cattle as compared to the previous month at Ksh.18,741 (Figure 12). The price was above the long-term average by 20 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,500 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,640. The reduction in prices was as a result of declining livestock condition disruption of markets in pastoral areas due to issues of insecurity. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.2,777, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 3,042 (Figure 13). The price was above the LTA by four percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,283 and lowest in pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,598. The decline in price is as a result of disruption of markets. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a rise of eight percent in the current average price for a kilogram of maize at Ksh. 43, compared to the previous month at 40 (Figure 14). The current prices are fairly below the long-term average at this time of the year. The increase in prices can be attributed to declinig of maize stocks at household level and disruption of markets in the pastoral livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.45 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.49.4, an increase of four compared to the previous month at Ksh.47.4. (Figure 15). The price was marginally below the long-term average. The increase in prices was attributed to decreasing maize stocks household level and traders stores. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased by five percent from Kshs.114 last month to Ksh. 119.6 currently (Figure 16). The current prices are above the long-term average by eight percent. Pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.122 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade for the month under review decreased in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 64.6 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by increasing maize prices in comparison to decreasing goat prices.. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 95.9 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was similar as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). Milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 50 as compared to 49 the previous month. A proportion of 1.9, 25.2 and 72.9 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 38.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 19). This implies that they are likely to be skipping some nutrious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable and on a deteroriaring trend. About 88.2 percent of the sampled children were not malnourished while 10.4 and 1.4 percent were moderately and severely malnourished respectively (Figure 20). The situation was attributed to decreasing food and milk at household level. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by use of water from stagnant water bodies and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID -19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 12.7, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 12.47 (Figure 21). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 16.6 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.9 Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months. Figure 21: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross Rehabilitation of boreholes in kolowa, Tangulbei and Chemirimion Enhancing market linkages of fodder for farmers in kisanana, Muchukwo, Akorian, Sandai and Kapkuikui Targeting and support of displaced persons from the ongoing operation in Kapedo in Tiaty Sub-County Self Help Africa Provision of food supplies to 150 families affected by flood in baringo south worthy 5M supported by Irish Aid Alliance Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by Desert Locust- Supply of farm inputs (Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Youth in Agri Business Nutrition Sensitive and Food Utilization initiatives Livestock sector Livestock upgrading Capacity strengthening to Youth groups and communities on pasture, beekeeping and trainings Pre-positioning of pasture seeds 2,500Kg for houesholds. Provision of beehives Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, LSD. Capacity building of Farmers and staff. Water sector Moderate water trucking to schools and institutions to in support of Covid 19 Protocols BHs rehabilitation COVID 19 PVC Tanks Installations Pre-positioning Construction of New water Projects Drilling and Equipping of BHs Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Review of contingency plans, Response plan Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There has been some serious conflicts in some parts of the county which has triggered massive security operation by the government in an effort tio restore law and order. The conflict was triggered by competition over natural natural resource sharing, cattle rustling and administrative political boundaries. The main hotspot is currently in kapedo east and west in silale ward , Tiaty sub county. Other hotspots include Nakoko sub location in Ribkwo ward in Tiaty sub county, Kalabta, Tulukand Kapturo, Barketiew, Loruk and Chemoe in Baringo North Sub county and also Mukutani, Rugus, Arabal and Kiserian sub locations in Baringo South Sub county. These conflicts have led to disruption of markets market operations leading to closure in the affected areas hampaering movement of goods and transport services in the affecyted areas. The conflict has also resulted into disruption of livelihoods and displacement of personsin the affected areas. The provision of health and education services has also been shut down mainly in silale ward. 7.2 Migration There were minimal Livestock migration from Kinyach, Baringo North to the hilly sides in search of pastures the migrations reported in arabal in baringo south, where the livestock are from Tiaty subcounty. With the prevailing conditions more livestock migration is espected due to declining pasture in the pastoral livelihood zones. 7.3 Food security prognosis According to FEWSNET Food security outlook report of December 2021, international forecasts and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) predict that La Nia conditions are expected to persist at least through April 2021. The Long rains season of 2021 will be normal. High day light temperatures are expected to persist up to March 2021. Covid 19 cases are likely to persist in the first half of 2021 and therefore necessitating the continuation of restrictions and other Covid 19 control measures. According to the Desert Locust Global Forecast by FAO, a small third generation of breeding is likely to commence in October in Samburu County and other areas with residual swarms but may be limited by the forecasted below-normal October to December short rains that will limit the moisture needed for the hatching of laid eggs. However, with the change of monsoon winds during the October-December short rains season, there is a risk of re-invasion from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen into Kenya The ongoing conflict and security operations in Tiaty Sub County are likely to last through February to March 2021. This will likely trigger livestock migrations within and outside the county. Forage conditions in range lands are likely to deteriorate in pastoral and agro pastoral areas due to the depressed short rains season. Food prices are expected to be above normal in pastoral areas due to market disruptions due to insecurity. Lake water levels will continue to be higher than normal and that the long rains will exacerbate the situation. Water access and availability will be stressed in pastoral areas for the next two months Other than in pastoral areas, livestock body condition will remain good to fair. In pastoral areas, livestock body condition is likely to deteriorate in the next two months. Malnutrition rates will be below the long term means. The above conditions provide a complex scenario for the County that warrants close monitoring of the different food and nutrition security and livelihood indicators by all stakeholders to ensure adequate mitigation measures are put in place to safeguard the most vulnerable householhds in the Countys hotspots. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector 15 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 18 No. community water supplies Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc Water trucking to vulnerable Institutions and Communities Carry out appraisal of the water storage facilities in schools and institutions to establish the current status given the prolonged closure of learning centres. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Dissemination of Nutrition messaging on the evolving drought situation through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Review of contingency plans, Response plan Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR Disease surveillance Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; in ward level 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Hay harvesting and baling machinery Provision of COVID-19 control facilities and like masks, water washing tanks and related sanitizers Covid 19 sensitization at markets Contact inventory on the available hay per ward to ascertain the available feed status. Active monitoring and reporting on the current livestock movements 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling",
            "Baringo 2021 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2021 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZO EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal but with a declining trend. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and is expected to detorariate further with the with the prevailing conditions Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No drought related livestock deaths were reported during the reporting period.. Access indicators Terms of trade are within the seasonal range and on a declining trend. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend due to reduction of water in the open water sources Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is on an increasing trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 41.62 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water Households-trekking distance (km) Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC ) 16.6 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The county experienced dry spells most of the time, although there were some parts that received light showers. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two dekads of the month translating into 79 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index is marginally above long term means but on a declining trend for the month under review. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is slightly below the long term means as shown in Figure 2. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is above normal in all the sub counties (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 41.62 and is on a declining trend as compared to the previous month at 67.78 The current VCI is above long term mean but there is a significant declining trend across the sub counties. (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pasture conditions are poor mostly in pastoral and agropastoral areas (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South and Tiaty. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 6). However there are a few pockets of irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones browse conditions.The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for two months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, rivers and boreholes (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current water sources are expected to last for one to two months in all livelihood zones. Figure 5: Pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 4.3km the previous month to 4.5km(Figure 8). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by 20. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of 1.6 kilomitre while agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.6 km. The increase in distances is attributed to decrease of water levels in the open water sources in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones due to poor performance of the short rains season. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by five percent at 8.3 km in comparison to the previous month at 7.9 km (Figure 9). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9.6 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 2 kilomitres. The return distances are above the long term average by seven percent and this is attributed to deteroriating pastures and water conditions at the traditional grazing sites in the county. Figure 8: Water access Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is good to fair in irrigated livelihood zone and a few parts of agro pastoral livelihood zone while fair to poor in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by diminishing pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. However, the body condition is likely to continue declining due to the worsening forage and water conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were few cases of livestock diseases being reported alhough they could not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against LSD, CCPP and PPR was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.4 litres, a decrease of seven percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk produced of three litres while pastoral had the least at 2.1 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by seven percent and this has been contributed mainly by migration of livestock from the irrigated livelihood zone due to flooding menace. The livestock have been moved to safer areas thus leaving households with fewer animals to milk. Deterioration forage water conditions is also contributing to the low milk production. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently farmers have prepared their farms in all livelihood zones in anticipation of the long rains. However, crop productivity might be affected by the presence of desert locusts which have been reported in the county for the last one month. At least five swarms have been reported in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. There was a minimal decrease in average price for medium-sized cattle as compared to the previous month at Ksh.18,292 (Figure 12). The price was above the long-term average by 36 percent. Irrigated livelihood posted highest prices Ksh.28,833 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,380. The reduction in prices was as a result of declining livestock body condition mostly in the pastoral areas. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.2,867, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,777 (Figure 13). The price was above the LTA by 19 percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,783 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,300. The increase in price is as a result of favourable market conditions. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a rise of three percent in the current average price for a kilogram of maize at Ksh. 44., compared to the previous month at 43 (Figure 14). The current prices are faintly below the long- term average at this time of the year. The increase in prices can be attributed to declinig of maize stocks at household level. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.48 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.30 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.52.2, an increase of six percent compared to the previous month at Ksh. 49.4. (Figure 15). The price was marginally below the long- term average. The increase in prices was attributed to decreasing maize stocks both at household level and traders stores. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased by five percent from Kshs.114 last month to Ksh. 119.6 currently (Figure 16). The current prices are above the long-term average by eight percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.122 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.90. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade for the month under review are stable in comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat is able to fetch 64.8 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by stability in cereal and livestock prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long- term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 103.6 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 56.7 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.3 litres, which was a decrease of seven parcent compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, county acceptable Food Consumption Score of 48.17 as compared to 50 the previous month. A proportion of 1.5, 25.9 and 72.6 percent of the households across livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zone, about 38.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption (Figure 19). The good consumption score can be attributed to consumption of meat in the pastoral and fishing livelihood zones because of the initiation ceremonies 5.3.1 Health and Nutrition Status The nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age is stable as compared to the previous month, whereby about 92 percent of the sampled children were not malnourished while 7.8 and 0.2 percent were moderately and severely malnourished respectively (Figure 20). The situation was attributed to availability of food at household level especially meat due to ongoing circumcision ceremonies. Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: Nutrition status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were occasioned by poor hygiene practices at household level. Water sources have also been contaminated by flood waters mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 12.3 which is stable compared to the previous month (Figure 21). Households in pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 13.9 followed by agro pastoral livelihood zone at 13.3. The irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.6 Figure 21: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross Rehabilitation of boreholes in kolowa, Tangulbei and Chemirimion Enhancing market linkages of fodder for farmers in Kisanana, Muchukwo, Akorian, Sandai and Kapkuikui Self Help Africa Provision of food supplies to 150 families affected by flood in Baringo South worth Ksh5M supported by Irish Aid Alliance Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by DL- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Youth in Agri Business Nutrition Sensitive and Food Utilization initiatives Control of desert locusts by FAO, County and National government is ongoing in the county. Livestock sector Livestock upgrading Capacity strengthening to Youth groups and communities on pasture, beekeeping and trainings Provision of pasture seeds 2,500Kg Provision of beehives Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, LSD. Capacity building of Farmers and staff. Water sector Water trucking BHs rehabilitation COVID 19 PVC Tanks Installations Pre-positioning Construction of New water Projects Drilling and Equipping of BHs Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Review of contingency plans, Response plan Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Carry out data quality audits Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Security operations are ongoing in Tiaty sub county where cases of banditry were reported in the last two months.The main hotspots are in kapedo east and west in silale ward , Tiaty sub county. Nomalcy is slowly returning and the schools that had closed due to insecurity have now reopened. 7.2 Migration There were minimal livestock migration from Kinyach, Baringo North to the hilly sides in search of pastures. 7.3 Desert locusts At least five swarms of desert locusts were reported in Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo Central sub counties in the last one month and control measures are underway. If not checked, they have the potential to affect the crops that will planted in the coming long rains season. 7.4 Food security prognosis According to the forecast of the Kenya Meteorological Department, the county is expected to have above average rains for the coming long rains season. It therefore implies that the water situation will improve significantly in the next one month as recharge of water sources is expected to be enhanced. Regenaration of pasture and browse is expected to improve with the onset of the long rains season and therefore improving forage availability and access. Covid 19 cases are likely to persist in the first half of 2021 and therefore necessitating the continuation of restrictions and other Covid 19 control measures. According to the Desert Locust Global Forecast by FAO, a small third generation of breeding is likely to commence in October in Samburu County and other areas with residual swarms but may be limited by the forecasted below-normal October to December short rains that will limit the moisture needed for the hatching of laid eggs. However, with the change of monsoon winds during the October-December short rains season, there is a risk of re-invasion from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen into Kenya The ongoing conflict and security operations in Tiaty Sub County are likely to last through February to March 2021. This will likely trigger livestock migrations within and outside the county. Food prices are expected to be above normal in pastoral areas due to market disruptions due to insecurity. Other than in pastoral areas, livestock body condition will remain good to fair Malnutrition rates are expected to remain stable in the next one month. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector 15 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 18 No. community water supplies Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc Water trucking to vulnerable Institutions and Communities 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Review of contingency plans, Response plan Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Carry out data quality audits 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR Disease surveillance Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; in ward level 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Hay harvesting and baling machinery Provision of COVID-19 control facilities and like masks, water washing tanks and related sanitizers Covid 19 sensitization at markets 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2021",
            "Baringo 2021 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2021 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month under review. The County vagetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal The Water levels in open water sources are below normal at 20-30 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to poor in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones.. Access indicators Terms of trade are below the long term trade and on declining trend. Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges and on increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is above the the long term mean and on an increasing trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is on an increasing trend and above LTA. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 52.34 35-50 Of water in the water pan 20-30 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHday) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 68.84 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.54 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 16.06 12.51 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 14.36 45.15 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October. Thereafter, the rains disappeared and the county has experienced dry spells for the better part of the last three months. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the mounth under review translating to 49 percent of the normal rains during the first two dekads of December (Figure 1). In terms of distribution, both temporal and spatial distribution was very poor. In the high land areas, moderate rains were received for less than three days during the first dekad while in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, light erratic showers were observed for less than three days. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is below normal and on a declining trend. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term average (LTA) as shown in Figure 2. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The entire county and three of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness which was a stable trend during the month of December. The rest of the sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November. However, despite the fact that the VCI is above normal, forage conditions on the ground mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are in poor conditions and rapidly deteriorating due to poor rainfall perfomamce. This has been compounded by the presence of invasive species such as prosopis which have suppressed regeneration of undergrouth The sub-counties of Tiaty and Baringo South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 5: pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones are mostly in poor condition with the rest being in fair condition as shown in Figure 5. This has been caused by poor rainfall performance and presence of invasive species that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in conditions deteriorating trend.. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in the Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.1.1.2 Brows The browse conditions during the month under review was mostly in fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while in Irrigated livelihood zone, browse condition was good to fair. The condition is below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were boreholes, traditional river wells and water pans, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 20 to 30 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation, poor recharge and high day time temperatures. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 8: Water access Figure 9: Grazing distances 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.4km, an increase of five percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The distances are above the LTA by two percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood recorded the least trekking distance of two kilometres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of six kilometres. The increase in distances are attributed to drying up of water sources as a result of poor recharge. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased marginally by one percent compared to the previous month whereby the distance was at eight kilometres (Figure current distances are above the LTA by 32 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.8 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The increase in return distances are attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Figure 11: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is generally thin with foreribs visible in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species. About 27 parcent of the cattle are in poor livestock body condition mostly in the Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones. This has been occasioned by poor regenaration of pasture, browse and increased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to worsening drought conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi wakulima, Ngoswe, Logumgum, Longewan and kapkuikui while lumpy skin disease has been reported in Kabarnet,Kapropita ward,Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia areas. Death cases of about 3-4 parcent of goats in the sampled households were reported in Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties and this is suspected to be due to CCPP disease. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.3 litres, translating in to a decrease of 26 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 11). decrease contributed deteriorating livestock body condtions. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of two litres while Irrigated cropping had the least average of 0.5 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 19 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have finished harvesting the short term crops planted during the short rains that performed poorly. The yields are below the long term average Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 14: Maize prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.17,214 an increase of four percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 16,561. (Figure 12). The marginal increase in prices is due to the festive season .The price was relatively above the short- term average by six percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.27,833 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded least average price Ksh.15,334. The low prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone is due to poor livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices The average price of a medium sized goat decreased by four percent from the previous month of Ksh. 2,676, to Ksh.2,556 currently (Figure 13). The price was below the short term average (STA) by eight percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,040. The low prices are partly being contributed by livestock diseases. Figure 13: Goat prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was an increase of three percent in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month at Ksh 47.5kg (Figure 14). The current prices are higher than the long- term average at this time of the year by nine percent. The increase in maize prices can be attributed to scarcity of the commodity in the Pastoral livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.48 per kg due to insecurities along the kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of kollowa market, while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 55kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 54kg (Figure 15). The increase in prices was attributed to insecurities along the Kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of kollowa market as well as increase in maize prices. The price was above the short-term average by eight percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 55 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.125 (Figure 16). The current prices are above the short-term average by 12 percent. The Pastoral livelihood recorded highest average prices of Ksh.129 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The high prices are attributed to scarcity of the commodity and market disruptions caused by insecurity in parts of the Pastoral livelihood zone. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 54, implying that a sale of one goat is likely to fetch 54kg of maize which was a decrease in comparison to the previous month at 58 (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 22 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 96 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 43. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption average consumption household per day was at 0.9 litres as compared to the previous month at 1.4 litres representing a decrease of 36 percent. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 42 percent (Figure 18). Milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zones at 1.5 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 0.5 litre. The decline in milk production is due to reduced milk production in the county. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 45.1 which was stable as compared to the previous month at 45.7. A proportion of 5.6, 27.1 and 67.3 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively which was relatively similar to the previous month. The Pastoral ,Irrigated, and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 42.4, 49.7 and 59.6 average food consumption Score respectively (Figure 19). Food consumption is on a worsening trend as more households shifting borderline consumption scores especially Pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to difficulties in accessing food at household level as a result of increasing prices. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 16 percent. This was an increase as compared to the previous month. The cuurent proportion is above the LTA by 29 percent. The worsening nutrition status is contributed by minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Figure 22: Coping strategy index Figure 21: proportion of malnourished Children by family MUAC By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 10.5 percent; this was a decrease of of 1.7 percent as compared to the previous month at 12.2 percent. (Figure 21) although it is still above the LTA, indicating that nutrition status is not normal at this time of the year. The current proportion is above the long term average by 5.5 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 14.36 which was a surge compared to the previous month at 13.79. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 18.8 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.3 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.4 (Figure 22). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The office of Interior and Coordination through the office of the County Commissioner distributed 3,000 bags (50kg bag) of rice and 3,000 bags beans (50kg bag) in beneficiaries spread in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central and Tiaty sub counties. The World Food Program (WFP) made a cash transfer targeting 4, 488 households spread in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo Central and Baringo South sub counties whereby each recipient received Ksh 5,000 under the WFP Assistance Program. The Kenya Red Cross society assisted 3, 036 households with cash transfer whereby each beneficiary received Ksh 5,000 under USAIDBHA Drought Response Program- CVA. The beneficiaries were spread in Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Implementation of the Laikipia-Baringo Inter-County Integrated Drought Preparedness and Resilience Project has started though it has been bogged down by insecurity challenges in the project area. The project objective is to contribute to increased household income and the reduction of resource-based conflicts along the volatile BaringoLaikipia border (SosianChuro-Amaya). The Project Duration is five years. Kenya Red Cross Livestock off take program is currently underway whereby about 4,141 cattle that are in poor body condition will be purchased from the identified farmers across the county and the meat will be distributed to needy vulnarabe households. The Sky Bird Regional Micro Project aims at improving sanitation status of households at risk of floods in Baringo South sub county. It will start in November 2021 to October 2022. Another program is Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response -by USAIDBHA (Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance) which is a Response Program- CVA and its key intervention is to contribute to improved food security and resilience of drought affected communities in Baringo County. The other upcoming health projects in the county includes ECHO COVID- 19 vaccination roll out across the county. Self Help Africa They have carried out promotion of sorghum, cassava and green grams. On livestock breeding, they have distributed galla bucks in October and they are planning to procure doper and Sahiwal bulls. They have done trainings on kitchen gardens to various women groups and also did the Lishe bora initiatives and mother to mother support group. Rehabilitation of water sources in Baringo North and Tiaty was done and have distributed 30 water tanks. Action Aid They have carried out a capacity building for 100 women groups, purchased pasture seeds, trained the women groups on kitchen gardens (10 groups in Tangulbei ward and 10 in ChuroAmaya ward). Agriculture Sector Restoration of livelihoods destroyed by hazards- Done by Programs and development partners through provision of assorted relief seeds Support to Nutrition sensitive interventions through capacity Building and provision of planting materials for kitchen gardening and household water harvesting by County Government of Baringo, National Government, FAO, WFP, Red Cross, ACTED, WVK and NCCK. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is on-going targeting over 400 groups in the county With the support of FAO, the depertment is distributing 4,500 bags of range cubes (50kg bag) targeting 1,125 beneficiary households spread in Tiaty, Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is on-going in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Training of groups on Livestock Upgrading through Self HelpAfricaFarming Systems KenyaSustainable Agriculture Information Initiatives(SHAFSKSAII) Training of Women and Youth in Groups on Beekeeping and Meat goat value chain development through Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme II(ASDSP II) Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition Vaccination against COVID 19 Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages (wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level is ongoing Implementation of agri-nutrition activities to boost the resilience of the vulnerable groups and improve nutrition education knowledge School health and nutrition clubs in 10 schools-Tiaty west IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties CLTS plus trachoma elimination in Tiaty and parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties Coordination activities ongoing both at sub county and county level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were livestock migration during the month. In Tiaty sub county, the livestock were reported to be moving to West Pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture. The livestock that migrated to Komolion in Tiaty sub county and those from Kiserian areas to Loruk area sorounding Lake Baringo are still there. There has been an influx of camels in Mogotio sub county from Laikipia county searching for pastures and water. Tension is rising between the communities living on the border between Marakwet East and Tiaty sub counties following an incident in which four Marakwets were shot dead by bandits and about one hundred herds of cattle stolen on Friday 26th November 2021. This incident is likely to affect food supply between the Pokots and the Marakwets communities. Insecurity incidents emanating from Laikipia County is being felt in Tiaty areas whereby Amaya market, which is the main source of food supply for the local communities living within Churo ward , was adversely affected. Until now, the basic food commodities that were mainly supplied by the traders from Ol Moran area in Laikipia County are not available. The Makutano-Mukutani conflict at the border between Baringo South (Marigat) and Tiaty East Sub- Counties is yet to be resolved. Because of the conflict, trade between the neighbouring communities has been affected adversely. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access challenges will be experienced across the county due to the poor performance of the short rains season.In the Pastoral areas, the performance of the rains was very poor and any little waters that were captured by the water pans are likely to be lost through evaporation due to the prevailing high temperatures. Treckking distances to water points are expected to rise further as the available water is getting depleted. Forage conditions are expected to deteriorate further especially in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones due to moisture stress. Livestock migration is therefore expected to pick up in Pastoral livelihood zone as the traditional dry season grazing grounds are not available due to insecurity challenges that are being experienced both within and in the neighbouring counties. Livestock body condition for cattle is likely to worsen in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and therefore affecting livestock productivity in terms of milk production. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to continue being felt in parts of Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Undertake water trucking in the most affected schools and health fascilitiesfor the purpose of maintaining service delivery. Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To Equip the already drilled boreholes Purchase new water boozers and to repair and service the old ones To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Health facilities closed due to lack of staff to be given staff Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups Promote school health and nutrition clubs in schools 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Provision of relief livestock feed for the productive stocks in the areas hardest hit by drought. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Stockpiling of livestock feed supplements in reddiness for any emerging drought contition Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2021 Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2021 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2021 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is normal with Mogotio sub county registering moderate drought deficit. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 30-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity and is likely to worsen in the pastoral areas. Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Some livestock death cases which are drought related have been reported in the pastoral areas. Access indicators Terms of trade are within the seasonal range and on a declining trend. Distances to water sources for households are below normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend due to reduction of water in the open water sources Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is on an increasing trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal ranges. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 110.2 80-120 VCI-3month 40.09 35-50 Of water in the water pan 10-20 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) Numerous No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 47.54 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 1.38 Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 0-5.42 Crops area planted for the season Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 15.96 17.44 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months (MAM,SAM) by family MUAC 13.25 13.25 19.0 44.08 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month of April, the performance of the rains was poor across the county with most areas receiving below normal rains during the first two dekads of the month. The onset of the season was late with areas in high land regions that are predominantly mixed farming livelihood zone recording their onset in the last dekad of the month. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received below normal rains during the first two decads of the month translating into 45 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). The rains were mostly received in the highland areas of the county while the low lands comprising mostly the pastoral ivelihood zone have remained relatively dry with few areas receiving light drizzles for a day. Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones with the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones receiving the least amount of rains compared to the mixed farming livelihood zone. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is normal but on a declining trend. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall received for the month under review is below the long term means as shown in Figure 2. This has been contributed by poor pefomance of the long rains season which has been charecterised by late onset, low rainfall amount and poor distribution. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation condition index (VCI) is normal in all the sub counties other than Mogotio sub county which has moderate drought (Figure 3). The VCI is currently at 40.09 and is on a decling trend as compared to the previous month at 42. The VCI trend for Mogotio and Baringo North sub counties has declined significantly to the extent of dropping below the long term means, resulting in a moderate drought deficit (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones are in poor conditions (Figure 5). The most affected sub counties are Baringo South ( Kiserian), kinyach in baringo North and Tiaty where there are hardly any pastures on the ground. The current pastures are expected to last for less than one month across all livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Figure 5: Pasture conditions Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition is fair to poor both in quantity and quality across all livelihood zones (Figure 6).The condition is slightly below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one months in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, rivers and boreholes (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 10 to 20 percent of their full capacity. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for one months in all livelihood zones due to the prevailing water conditions. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 4.7km the previous month to five kilometres (Figure 8). The distances are below the long term average (LTA) by eight percent. Irrigated cropping zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of six kilometres. The increase in distances is attributed to decrease of water levels in the open water sources in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones due to delayed onset of the long rains. Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 2.2.3 Livestock access During the reporting period, the average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased to 9.1km, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month at 8.8 km (Figure 9). The current distances are above the long term means by 16 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 11 km while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of 2 kilomitres. The return distances are attributed to deteroriating pastures water conditions traditional grazing sites in the county. Figure 9: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is mostly moderate neither thin nor fat and borderline across the irrigated livelihood zone and a few parts of agro pastoral livelihood zone, while thin fore ribs visible and emaciated in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones for all the livestock species. This has been occasioned by diminishing pasture, browse and water across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue declining due to the worsening forage and water conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were few disease cases reported but vaccination exercise was carried out against lumpy skin disease (LSD), contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des Petits Ruminanta (PPR) was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. In Churo area, Tiaty sub county, quite a significant nuber of goats were reported to have died even though the cause of death is not yet known. The NDMA survailance system has picked up a number of livestock deaths which are suspected to be drought related whereby eight cattle, 58 sheep and 189 goats have so far succumbed in the pastoral sentinel sites. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day was at 1.2 litres, this was almost similar to the previous month (Figure 11). The milk was mainly from cattle and goats. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk produced of three litres while pastoral had the least at 3.2 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 18 percent and this has been contributed by deterioration of forage and water conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Following the onset of the long rains season in the high lands, farmers have started planting their crops although the planting itself is quite late due to delayed onset of the season. Poor germination has been reported in some farms due to the erratic rains received in the county. Figure 11: Milk production Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. current average price medium-sized cattle was Ksh.16,827 as compared to the previous month at Ksh.17,309 (Figure 12). The price was above the short-term average by 26 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.29,667 while pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,194. The reduction in prices was as a result of deteriorating livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh.2,544, as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 2,667 (Figure 13). The price was above the short term average (STA) by nine percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,567 and lowest in agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,850. The decline in price is as a result of disruption of markets due to the ongoing security operations in the pastoral zones mostly in Tiaty areas. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a rise of five percent in the current average price for a kilogram of maize at Ksh.48, compared to the previous month at 46 (Figure 14). The current prices are marginally below the long-term average at this time of the year. The increase in prices can be attributed to declinig maize stocks at household level. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.52 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.35 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The price per kilogram of posho was at Ksh.55, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 54 (Figure 15). The price was marginally above the short-term average. The increase in prices was attributed to increasing maize prices. pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 59 while the irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 40. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans was fairly similar to the previous month at Kshs.126 (Figure 16). The current prices are above the long-term average by 11 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.132 while the irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The increase in prices was attributed to purchasing of the seeds in preparation for the planting season. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade declined by nine percent for the month under review in comparison to the previous month whereby a sale of one goat was able to fetch 53.3 kgs of maize (Figure 17). This has been attributed to by increasing maize prices in comparison to decreasing goat prices.. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 91 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 41.1 Figure15: Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.1 litre, which was below the long term by 20 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the agro pastoral livelihood zone at 2 litres and lowest in fishing livelihood zone where there was no milk consumed by households. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated and Fishing livelihood zone. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 44.08 as compared to 47 the previous month. The Average Food Consumption Score has been on a declining trend for the past three months. A proportion of five, 32 and 62 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. In the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zone, about 51.7 and 20.7 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption respectively (Figure 19). This has been contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households in these zones. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 15.72 percent. This was an increase of four percent as compared to the previous month .which being contributed by intake of inadequate dietary food stuffs at the household level especially in the pastoral areas. Figure18: Milk consumption Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 By familu MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 9.7 percent; this was an increase compared to the previous month at 8 percent. (Figure 21). The situation was attributed to reduced food and milk at household level. Figure 21: Children at risk of malnourished by family MUAC 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. Senzitization campaings and Vaccination against COVID 19 pandemic are ongoing across the county led by the County health teams. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index current average coping strategy index was at 13.25, an increase as compared to 12.89 the previous month. Households in pastoral livelihood employed more coping strategies at followed pastoral livelihood zone at 14.6 while the irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.4 (Figure Overall, households agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 22: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions Kenya Red Cross KRCS continue to participate at the coordination mechanisms; National Task force on vaccine roll out and its technical sub committees Nationally and the counties. Staff trainings and sensitization. National Government and various counties have reached to KRCS for support on the rolls out. KRCS provided tents to some health facilities for the inoculation process at Kabarnet referral hospital. Distribution of relief food to 750 families in Mukutani (400 households) and Chemorongion (350 households) Distribution of family NFI kits to 14 families in Kapedo centre. Evacuation and referral of 12 gunshot casualties. 2 casualties managed onsite while 10 were referred to various hospitals in Nakuru. Self Help Africa They are supporting the revival of eight irrigation projects in the county. They are also supporting pasture harvesting and conservation whereby targeted beneficiaries are being supported with pasture seeds. The targeted beneficiaries are being supported with livestock breed improvement whereby they intend to offer some galla goats and Sahiwal cattle breeds. They are also supporting rangeland rehabilitation and development of four irrigation projects. Action Aid Trained 6 trainer of trainers from the department of Agriculture and community representatives on two weeks permaculture design course in Makueni Supported 35 budget champions to review the county fiscal paper and presented submissions on key gaps identified during the process to the Economic planning team and assembly COVID Response and awareness on SGBV for community resource persons Train 200 community members on energy alternatives Support Tangulbei women network to push for establishment of Baringo climate change strategy and County climate change Fund law. Build the capacity of Tangulbei Disaster management committee on early warning and early action integrating NDMA monthly bulletins into community productive and livelihoods systems Agriculture Sector Resilient building program to households invaded by DL- Supply of farm inputs(Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Lining of Sandai Irrigation scheme Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Youth in Agri Business Nutrition Sensitive and Food Utilization initiatives Livestock sector Livestock upgrading Capacity strengthening to Youth groups and communities on pasture, beekeeping and trainings Provision of pasture seeds 2,500Kg Provision of beehives Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, LSD. Capacity building of Farmers and staff. Water sector Water trucking BHs rehabilitation COVID 19 PVC Tanks Installations Pre-positioning Construction of New water Projects Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 Drilling and Equipping of BHs Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Health and Nutrition Dissemination of Nutrition messaging through vernacular FM stations. Activation of radio listener groups through wind up radios. Conduct quarterly cooking demonstrations for complementary feeding at the community through organized community groups BFCI-A community-based initiative to promote and support maternal child nutrition, environment hygiene, food security and referrals Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages(wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level Capacity building of caregivers on child caring practices Carry out data quality audits Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were minimal livestock migration towards Kollowa area in Tiaty sub county, an area that had received minimal rains that triggered pasture regeneration. The livestock that had moved to Arrabal areas have been forced to move back toother areas due to insecurity issues. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the long rains has started albeit late in the high land areas of the county . This is expected to stabilise water access and availability in these areas leading to reduction in treckking distances. Regenaration of forage resource is expected to take place mostly in the high land areas following the onset of the long rains leading to a reduction in grazing distances which in turn will lead to stabilization of livestock body condition. However, in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas, the delay in the onset of the long rains will continue to exert pressure on forage resource resulting in heightened internal livestock migrations. Further more, livestock mortality cases are likely to increase in the pastoral areas if the rains continues to perform dismally. Milk production and consumption is expected to remain below long term means due to poor livestock body condition, a condition that is expcted to persist for the next one month. Food access will continue to be a challenge in parts of Tiaty sub county due to the ongoing security operations which has rendered markets to operate below normal. Some markets like Nginyang have completely ceased operating thus affecting commodity flows. In the pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition are likely to continue rising due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to low purchasing power, poor market functionality and low milk consumption. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2021 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Water trucking to selected health and education institutions will have to be initiated in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas of the county which have been experiencing water stress due to delay in the onset of the long rains season.This should be part of the preparatory plans before the schools reopen on 10th of 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanc Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post- harvest and safe use of chemicals Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling"
        },
        "DEWS_2022": {
            "Baringo 2022 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2022 MAY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received rainfall which was fair to good in terms of amount received and distribution The Vegetation greenness as represented by the VCI depicted moderate vegetation deficit Status of water sources is almost normal as water levels are above 50 across the county. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was poor to fair in Pastoral and Agrop pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones but on an improving trend. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Trekking distances to water points are declining due to the ongoing recharge of water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 33.01 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 50.87 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county did receive some rains during the month under review although the amount received were less compared to the previous month, translating to 54 parcent of the normal rains received during the first two dekads of May (Figure 1). The distribution in time and space was fair across the livelihood zone, though there was a dry spell of about 10 days during the first dekad. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean but on an increasing trend following the onset of the long rains season (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 5. Pasture condition 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 33.01, depicting a moderate vegetation deficit for all the sub counties apart from Eldama Ravine which has normal vegetation (Figure 3). The VCI trend for the county is still below the long term average (LTA) but is improving as highlighted in Figure 4 for Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties. Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend-Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pastures were poor to fair in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones whereas in Irrigated crop and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones, the pastures were fair to good. Regenaration of pastures is ongoing across all livelihood zones following the onset of the long rains season. (Figure 5). Figure 3. Vegetation condition index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 6: Browse condition Figure 7. Water sources Figure 8. Trekking distance 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to good both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while good in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition was below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year.The available browse was expected to improve due to the ongoing rains. The browse is expected to last for more than three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers,pans dams and traditional river wells(Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were above 50 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones as a result of on going rains. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five month in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources recorded a decrease of 20 percent at 4 km from 6.7 km the previous month (Figure 8). In comparison to the long term average (LTA) the distances were below normal by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.4 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water points as a result of the onset of the long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 9. Return distance from grazing area 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 6.9 km, a decrease of 34 percent in relation to the previous month at 10.5 km (Figure 9). The recent distances were below the long term mean by 11 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average return distance of 7.8km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The declining distances were due to the ongoing rains in the county that has led to recharge of water soures. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock production 3.1.1 Livestock body condition During the reporting month the livestock body condition was generally thin with fore ribs being visible in the Pastoral and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 10). The condition was better as compared to the previous mounth whereby most animals were emaciated. This was occasioned by poor pasture, browse and water resources in these zones. The body condition is likely to continue improving due to the ongoing forage regeneration. 3.1.2 Livestock diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist n parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk production There was an increase in the average milk produced per household per day during the month at 0.7 litres, in relatation to the previous month at 0.4 litres, and this situation attributed ongoing improvement of forage condition due to the onset of the long rains season (Figure 11). Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk production of 3.1 litres while Irrigated cropping zone had the least average of 0.4 litres. The current milk production was below LTAs by 51 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and condition of food crops Most farmers have concluded crop planting following the late onset of the long rains season. Some farmers have started weeding their maize especially in the irrigated livelihood zone.Germination of the crops was good although a number of farms have been attacked by African army worms which are destroying the crops in the Mixed farming livelihood zone. Figure 10. Livestock body condition Figure11: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 14: Maize prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh. 12,926, an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 11,917. (Figure 12). The better prices is due to the improving livestock body condition across livelihood zones.The price relatively above the short-term average (STA). Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.24,167 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.8,000. The prices are expected to increase due to the regeneration of pastures which are expected to impact positively on the livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,320 in respect to the previous month at Ksh. 2,439 (Figure 13). The price was below the short term average by eight percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,617 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,350. The prices are expected to mprove due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize was Ksh.65 , an increase of seven percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 29 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.68 per kg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.45 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 15:Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure 17: Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 76kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 71.9kg (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 31 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to increased fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.82 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh. 55. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.142 (Figure 16), an increase of five percent compared to the previous month. The current price was above the STA by 17 percent. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.147 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.100. The general increase in prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county as well as purchasing of seeds for planting. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade declined by 11 percent from 40 to 36 in relation to the previous month (Figure 17). This was attributed to increased maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 29 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 81 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 27. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the worsening of the terms of trade. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 18: Milk consumption Figure 19: Food consumption score 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption was 0.7 litre per day an increase of 75 percent as compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 44 percent (Figure consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litre and lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 0.5 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 36.5, which was stable compared to the previous month. A proportion of 3, 48.5 and 48.5percent of the households across the livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable FCS respectively. More households have shifted to borderline in comparison to the previous month. The Pastoral , Agro pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 35, 39 and average consumption score respectively(Figure 19). About 62 percent of the households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption compared to 59 percent for the previous month. Most of them were experiencing food consumption gaps due to poor access and availability of food. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 Figure 21: Nutrition status by family MUAC Figure 22: Coping strategy index 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was stable at 18 parcent compared to the previous month (Figure 20). This was mostly contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rates were still above the LTA by two percent, a situation that was being contributed by minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral area. By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 9.5 percent. (Figure 21). The improvement malnutriotion status attributed to the ongoing nutrition interventions in the pastoral livelihood zones. The current proportion was slightly above the long term average. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in all livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was stable at 17 compared to the previus month. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 23 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 18 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 4 (Figure 22). Figure 20: Nutrition status by MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The county did not have any relief food distribution during the month under review. 6.2 Non-food interventions Red Kenya Cross Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Distribution of 60 Sahiwal bulls to various farmer groups for improving the local breeds. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity Cases of insecurity were reported in Saimo soi ward in Baringo North, Nosukro and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South sub county. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to remain stable and normal in the next one month as a result of the ongoing recharge of water sources across the county.Trekking distances are expected to remain below normal while water quality is expected to improve due to elimination of congestion at water points. Forage conditions are expectd to attain fair to good conditions in the next one month, a situation that will impact positively on livestock productivity in terms of milk production, meat availability and livestock market prices. Insecurity challenges are likely to continue being felt in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones with the possibility of some communities trying to restock their animals via illegal means following the onset of the long rains season. This is therefore likely to affect access to grazing fields and livestock markets due to fear of loss af animals. Terms of trade are expected to worsen in all livelihood zones as cereal prices are expected to remain high while livestock prices will remain low. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Train more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance pest control especially in the face of outbreak of the African army worms that have the potential to cause significant crop losses in the farms. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening",
            "Baringo 2022 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2022 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county experienced dry spells during the month under review with minimal light showers at the end of the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI depicted moderate vegetation deficit with Mogotio sub county having severe vagatation deficit. The Water levels in most water sources were below normal at less than 10 of their normal capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to poor in Pastoral and Agrop pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Livestock death cases which were drought related were reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal range and on an increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALARM WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 23.08 35-50 Of water in the water pan 0-10 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 60.5 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 18.3 17.49 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county experienced dry spells for the better part of the month under review with some pockets receiving light drizzles towards the end of March. (Figure 1). Both the temporal and spatial distribution was very poor and no proper onset took place during the month under review. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) was below normal and on a deteriorating trend compared to the long term average and this was attributed by poor performance of the short rains season. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean (LTA) and this was attributed to the failure in rainfall seasons for the last three seasons (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 23.08, depicting a moderate drought for the four sub counties of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Tiaty while Eldama Ravine had normal vegetation greenness (Figure 3). Mogotio sub county was experiencing severe vegetation deficit for the past three months. The VCI trend for Mogotio sub county was extremely below normal translating into severe vegetation deficit (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend-Mogotio sub county Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 Figure 5: Pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: Water sources 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pastures were generally poor across all livelihood zones. The pastures were depleted due to the prolonged drought spells in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 5). In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures were fair to poor and on a worsening trend. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while fair in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition was below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse was expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were traditional river wells, boreholes and lakes, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at less than 10 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones as a result of on going drought. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was poor, which was not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 Figure 9: Water acces Figure 8: Household water distances 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources recorded an increase of 10 percent at7.6 km from 6.9 km the previous month (Figure 8). In comparison to the long term average (LTA) the distances were above normal percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 8.1 km. The increase in distances was attributed to drying up of water points . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 12 km, an increase of 11 percent in relation to the previous month at 10.8 km (Figure 9). The recent distances were significantly above the long term mean by 38 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average return distance of 14km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of four kilomitres. increasing return distances are due to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 Figure 10: Livestock body condition Figure 11:Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the reporting month the livestock body condition was generally thin with fore ribs being visible and emaciated in the Pastoral and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 10). This was occasioned by dimimished pasture, browse and water resources in these zones. Consequently, livestock mortality cases for cattle were reported whereby about eight percent of the total animals owned in the sampled households in the Pastoral livelihood zone succumbed due to starvation. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to the depleted pastures. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases were reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi wakulima, Ngoswe, Logumgum, Longewan and Kapkuikui while lumpy skin disease has been reported in Kabarnet,Kapropita ward,Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia areas. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was a drop in the average milk produced per household per day during the month at 0.6 litres, in relatation to the previous month at 0.8 litres (Figure 11). The low milk production was contributed to by deteriorating livestock body condtions. Irrigated crop livelihood zone had the highest average milk production of 1.3 litres while Agropastoral zone had the least average of 0.1 litres. The current milk production was below LTAs by 59 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have prepared their farms in preparation for the anticipated long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh. 14,278, a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 15,315. (Figure 12). The decrease in prices is due to the poor livestock condition across livelihood zones.The price was relatively similar to the short-term average (STA). Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.30,167 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.10,417. The prices are expected to decline further due to the poor livestock condition as a result of the ongoing drought. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat dropped by three percent at Ksh.2,439 in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 2,515 (Figure 13). The price was below the short term average by 10 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,167 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,400. The reducing prices was as a result of deteriorating livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize was Ksh.52 , this was a slight increase in comparison to the previous month at Ksh 51kg (Figure 14). The prices were above than the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 14 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to most household depending on retailers for maize stocks as the stocks have diminished at household level in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.53 per kg due to insecurities that resulted in disruption of markets, while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 59kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 58kg (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 13 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to insecurities along the Kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of Kollowa market and diminishing maize stocks at household level in the Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 60 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh. 50. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.134.8 (Figure 16). The prices increased by four percent. The current price was above the STA by 15 percent. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.150 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.97. The high prices in the Agro pastoral are due to displacement of households due to insecurity that has led to disruption of markets. The general increase in prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade declined from 50 to 48 compared to the previous month (Figure 17). This was attributed to decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 81 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 31. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the worsening of the terms of trade. Figure 15:Posho prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure 17: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 Figure 19: Food consumption score Figure 20: Nutrition status 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption was less than a litre per day and on a declining trend. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 48 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated livelihood zone at 1litre and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.1 litre. Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an Acceptable Food Consumption Score of 40.6 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 42.7. A proportion of 4.4, 38.6 and 57 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. More households have shifted to poor and borderline in relation to the previous month. The Pastoral ,Irrigated cropping, and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 37.45, average consumption score respectively as compared to 39.6, 50.6 and 56.2 for the preceeding month (Figure 19). About 53.1 percent of the households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption as most of them were experiencing food consumption gaps due to the worsening food security situation. Most households in the Pastoral livelihood zone are feeding on livestock carcases that have died due to starvation thus stabilising the food consumption score. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review declined marginally from 20 percent in the previous month to 18 percent currently (Figure 20). This was mostly contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rates were still above the LTA by five percent, a situation that was being contributed by minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral area. Figure 18:Milk consumption Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 Figure 21: Nutrition status by Family MUAC Figure 22: Coping strategy By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 12.3 percent. (Figure 21). The worsening malnutriotion status was attributed to the decline of milk consumption at household level. The current proportion was above the long term average by 6.9 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was stable compared to the previous month at 15.4. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 23.7 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.9 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.6 (Figure 22). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone had recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions Through the office of Interior and coordination, about 3000 bags of rice, 2400 bags of beans and 60 cartons of corn beef were received and each sub county received 500 bags of rice, 400 bags of beans and 10 cartons of corn beef. 6.2 Non-food interventions NDMA is undertaking drought response interventions whereby 5,600 bags (50kg each) of drought survival pellets are being distributed in Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties targeting vulnerable households whereby each household will receive 4 bags that should be able to last them for eight weeks. Water trucking is also ongoing targeting schools and health institutions while nine plastic water tanks were procured and are being installed in selected schools. Red Kenya Cross About 2,148 households affected by insecurity were reached and supported with assorted food items in Baringo South and Baringo North Sub Counties. A total of 3,036 families in areas affected with drought across Baringo County were cushioned with Cash Voucher Assistance (CVA) of 5,067 each for 3 months. Third disbursement was done in March 2022 Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector With the support of FAO, the depertment is distributing 4,500 bags of range cubes (50kg bag) targeting 1,125 beneficiary households spread in Tiaty, Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition Vaccination against COVID 19 With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were both intra migration and out migration of livestock during the month under review in Tiaty sub county. The livestock that had moved to West pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture are still there. Insecurity cases were reported along the Kerio valley which has resulted in disruption of kollowa market. Other cases of insecurity were reported in Saimo soi ward in baringo North, Nosukro and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South sub county. In both cases, loss of lives were reported with several herds of cattle being reported to have been stolen. 7.3 Food security prognosis Households in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are likely to continue experiencing water stress since the season is yet to start properly. However, if the long rains starts, the water stress is likely to be relieved significantly towards the end og April. Livestock forage conditions will continue to be poor in the next one month regardless of the performance of the rains.This therefore implies that cattle will continue to be in poor to fair conditions especially in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. If the rins were to stat by now, then the earliest we can expect an improvement in forage conditions will be towards mid May. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to continue being felt in parts of Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Undertake water trucking in the most affected schools and health fascilitiesfor the purpose of maintaining service delivery. Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Purchase new water boozers and to repair and service the old ones To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Supplementary livestock feeding program is urgently required for the productive livestock stocks that have been left behind at households. This will ensuresafeguarding of key livelihood assets for the vulnerable households in Pastoral and Agro pastoralMarginal mixed livelihood zones. Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Fast track livestock offtake program in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones to salvage animals that are in poor body conditions. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Stockpiling of livestock feed supplements in reddiness for any emerging drought contition Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2022 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2022 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received rainfall which was fair to good in terms of amount received and distribution The Vegetation greenness as represented by the VCI depicted normal vegetation greenness. Status of water sources is almost normal as water levels are above 60 across the county. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was poor to fair in Pastoral and Agrop pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones but on an improving trend. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Trekking distances to water points are declining due to the ongoing recharge of water sources. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY NORMAL IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 45.38 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.2 17.5 16.13 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county did receive some rains during the month under review translating to 66 parcent of the normal rains during the first two dekads. The distribution in time and space was poor to fair across the livelihood zones, with dry spells being witnessed mostly during the last dekad of the month. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean but on an increasing trend (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure 5: Pasture condition 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 45.38, depicting normal vegetation greenness across the county (Figure 3). The VCI trend for the county is still below the long term average (LTA) but is improving as highlighted in Figure 4 for Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties. Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend-Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pastures were poor to fair in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones whereas in Irrigated crop and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones, the pastures were fair to good. Regenaration of pastures is ongoing across all livelihood zones following the sporadic rains being received in the county. (Figure 5). Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure 6: Browse condition Figure 7: State of water sources Figure 8: Water access Figure 9: Grazing distances 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition was mostly fair to good both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while good in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition was below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year.The available browse was expected to improve due to the ongoing rains. The browse is expected to last for more than three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers,pans dams and traditional river wells(Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were above 60 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones as a result of the rains received recently. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five month in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable at 3.9 km as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). In contrast to the long term average (LTA) the distances were below normal by three percent (depicting a positive trend). Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.2 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water points as a result of the rains being experienced . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 7 km, a marginal increase in relation to the previous month (Figure 9). The current distances were below the long term mean by nine percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average return distance of 8 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The declining distances were due to recharge of water soures in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure11: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the reporting month the livestock body condition was generally borderline, Moderate and thin with fore ribs being visible in the Pastoral and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 10). The condition was better as compared to the previous mounth whereby most animals were emaciated. This was occasioned by poor pasture, browse and water resources in these zones. The body condition is likely to continue improving due to the ongoing forage regeneration. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist in parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was an increase in the average milk produced per household per day during the month at 1.1 litres, in comparison to the previous month at 0.7 litres, and this situation was attributed to ongoing improvement of forage condition due to the regenerating of pastures (Figure 11). Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average milk production of 3.1 litres while Irrigated cropping zone had the least average of 0.4 litres. The current milk production was below LTAs by 25 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have planted their farms following the late onset of the long rains season. Some farmers have finished weeding their maize especially in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The maize are at knee height.Germination of the crops was good although a number of farms have been attacked by African army worms which are destroying the crops in the Mixed farming livelihood zone. Figure 10. Livestock Body Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Figure 12: Cattle prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.14,875, an increase of 15 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 12,926. (Figure 12). The improving prices was attributted to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was relatively above the short-term average (STA). Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.23,333 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.10,000. The prices are expected to increase due to the ongoing regeneration of pastures which are expected to impact positively on the livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,506 an increase of eight percent in relation to the previous month (Figure 13). The price was below the short term average by eight percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,433 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,500. The prices are expected to mprove due to the ongoing improvement livestock condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by 32 percent from Ksh.65 to Ksh 86 currently. (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 73 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90.5 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure 15: Posho Prices Figure 16: Beans Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 102kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 76kg (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 78 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to increased fuel prices that led to increase in cost of milling across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 108 while the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh.85 . 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.145 (Figure 16), an increase of two percent compared to the previous month. The current price was above the STA by 15 percent. The Agro pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.150 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.100. The general increase in prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade declined by 18 percent from 36 to 29 in comparison to the previous month (Figure 17). This was attributed to increased maize prices in comparison to the low livestock prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 48 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 49 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 21.4. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones contributed worsening of the terms of trade. Figure 17:Terms of Trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 Figure 18: Milk Consumption Figure 21: Family Muac 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption was one litre per day, an increase of 43 percent as compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 29 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litre and lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 0.7 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 38.2 which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 36.5. A proportion of 3.4, 44.4 and 52.2 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable FCS respectively. More households in Pastoral an Agro pastoral livelihood zones have shifted to borderline in comparison to the previous month. The Pastoral , Agro pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 37.2, 37.4 and 45.7 average food consumption score respectively (Figure 19). About 56.2 percent of the households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption compared to 59 percent for the previous month. Most of them were experiencing food consumption gaps due to poor access and low availability of food. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was stable at 19.2 parcent compared to the previous month (Figure 20). This was mostly contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rates were still above the LTA by 10 percent, a situation that was being contributed by scarcity of food at household level especially in the Pastoral area. By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 8.4 percent. (Figure 21). The improvement in nutrition status was attributed to the ongoing nutrition interventions in the pastoral livelihood zones. Figure 20: Nutrition status by MUAC Figure 19:Food Consumption Score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria cases and cold flue across livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index was at 16.3 compared to 17 the previus month; this is a slight improvement and its attributed to the ongoing interventions by partners to cussion vulnarable households from impacts of food insecurity. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 23.3 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 16.9 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.9 (Figure 22). Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The county did not have any relief food distribution during the month under review. 6.2 Non-food interventions Red Kenya Cross Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Emergency livestock offtake by the National Government through the Red Cross Society is ongoing targeting about 2,053 animals across the county. Distribution of 60 Sahiwal bulls to various farmer groups for improving the local breeds. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity Cases of insecurity were reported in Saimo soi ward in Baringo North, Nosukro and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South sub county. A dawn to dusk curfew has been delared by the National Government in Tiaty sub county in an effort to restore law and order. 7.2 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to remain stable and normal in the next two months as a result of the ongoing recharge of water sources across the county.Trecking distances are expected to remain below LTA while water quality is expected to improve due to elimination of congestion at water points. Forage conditions are expectd to attain fair to good conditions in the next one month, a situation that will impact positively on livestock productivity in trms of milk production, meat availability and livestock market prices. Insecurity challenges are likely to continue being felt in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones with the possibility of some communities trying to restock their animals via illegal means following the onset of the long rains season. This is therefore likely to affect access to grazing fields and livestock markets due to fear of loss af animals. Terms of trade are expected to worsen in all livelihood zones as cereal prices are expected to remain high while livestock prices will remain low. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Crop production in terms of yield is expected to remain below LTA due to late onset f the rains coupled by poor rainfall distribution in terms of space and time. Presence of African Army warms will further affect negatively crop productivity as they are causing considerable damage especially in the Mixed farming livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance pest control especially in the face of outbreak of the African army worms that have the potential to cause significant crop losses in the farms. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening",
            "Baringo 2022 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2022 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county experienced a late onset of the long rains season The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI depicted moderate vegetation deficit Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo Central sub counties having severe vagatation deficit. The Water levels in most water sources were below normal but recharge is ongoing. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to poor in Pastoral and Agrop pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Livestock death cases which were drought related were reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal range but improving. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) is above normal and worsening. PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL IMPROVING COUNTY ALARM IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 20.18 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.6 16.83 19.0 36.13 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and distribution The County experienced a late onset of the long rains season from mid April with a total amount of 91 parcent of the normal rains being received during the month under review (Figure 1). Rainfall distribution both in time and space was fair to good with all livelihood zones having reported receiving some rains. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) was below normal but on an improving trend compared to the long term average and this was attributed by the onset of the long rains season. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean (LTA) and this was attributed to the failure in rainfall seasons for the last three seasons (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 20.18, depicting a moderate drought with the three sub counties of Baringo North, Baringo South, and Eldama Ravine having moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 3). Mogotio, Baringo Central and Tiaty sub counties were experiencing severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. The VCI trend for Mogotio, Baringo Central and Tiaty sub counties were extremely below normal translating into severe vegetation deficit (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend-Mogotio, Baringo Central and Tiaty sub countie Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 5. Pasture Condition Figure 6. Browse Condition Figure 7. Water Sources 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture conditions The pastures were generally in poor conditions across all livelihood zones. The pastures were depleted due to the prolonged drought spells in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 5). In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures were fair to poor and on a worsening trend. With the onset of the long rains season, pasture conditions are expected to start improving. Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while fair in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition was below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse was expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. The browse conditions are likely to start improving with the onset of the long rains season. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The main water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were traditional river wells, boreholes and lakes, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones due to the onset of the long rains season and the recharge is ongoing. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was poor, which was not normal at this time of the year. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 9. Return Distance from Grazing Area Figure 8. Trekking Distance 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources recorded a decrease of 20 percent at 6.1 km from 7.6 km the previous month (Figure 8). In comparison to the long term average (LTA) the distances were above normal by four percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 6.4 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water source due to the onset of the long rains season. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was 10.5 km, a decrease of 12 percent in relation to the previous month at 12 km (Figure 9). The trekking distances were above the long term mean by 22 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average return distance of 14km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The decreasing return distances are due to the ongoing recharge of water sources following the onset of the long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 10. Livestock Body Condition Figure11: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the reporting month the livestock body condition was generally emaciated and thin with fore ribs being visible in the Pastoral and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 10). This was occasioned by dimimished pasture, browse and water resources in these zones. Consequently, livestock mortality cases for cattle were reported whereby about nine percent of the total animals owned in the sampled households in the Pastoral livelihood zone succumbed due to starvation. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist n parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was a drop in the average milk produced per household per day during the month at 0.4 litres, in relatation to the previous month at 0.6 litres (Figure 11). The low milk production was contributed deteriorating livestock condition. Irrigated crop livelihood zone had the highest average milk production of 1.2 litres while Agropastoral zone had the least average of 0.1 litres. The current milk production was below LTAs by 71 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have prepared their farms and planting of varios crops is ongoing. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh. 11,917, a decrease of 17 percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 14,278. (Figure 12). The decrease in prices is due to the poor livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was below the short-term average (STA) and on a deteriorating trend. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,333 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.9,583. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,439 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 2,515 (Figure 13). The price was below the short term average by five percent. The prices highest Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,000 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,300. The low prices was as a result of deteriorating livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize was Ksh.61 , this was an increase of 16 parcent in comparison to the previous month at Ksh 51kg (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 27 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.72 per kg due to insecurities that resulted in disruption of markets, while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.45 per Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 15:Posho prices Figure 17: Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 71.9kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 58.3kg (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 31 percent. The above normal prices were attributed to both increase in fuel and maize prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.82 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.134 (Figure 16).. The current price was above the STA by 15 percent. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.157 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.100.. The general increase in prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade declined by 17 percent from 48 to 40 compared to the previous month (Figure 17). This was attributed to increased maize prices and declining livestock prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 21 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 89 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 27. Figure 16: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure18: Milk consumption Figure 20:Nutrition status by MUAC Figure 19: Food consumption 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption was less than a litre per day and on a declining trend. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 33 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated livelihood zone at 1.2 litre and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at 0.1 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Food consumption score (FCS) Generally, the county had an Acceptable Food Consumption Score of 36.13 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 40.6. A proportion of 4.4, 38.6 and 57 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. More households have shifted to poor and borderline FCS bands in comparison to the previous month. The Pastoral , Agro pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 34.92, 34.91 and 46.7 average food consumption score respectively as compared to 37.45, 51 and 52.7 for the preceeding month (Figure 19). About 59 and 55 percent of the households did not have acceptable food consumption score in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones respectively due to food consumption gaps. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was stable as compared to the previous month at 18 percent currently (Figure 20). This was mostly contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rates were still above the LTA by two percent, a situation that was being contributed by minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 Figure 21: Family MUAC Figure 22: Coping strategy By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 11.4 percent. (Figure 21). The slight improvement in malnutriotion status was attributed to the ongoing nutrition interventions in the pastoral livelihood zones. The current proportion was above the long term average by 5.9 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in all livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index increased from 15.4 to 16.83 in comparison to the previous month, implying that households were employing unusual strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as reduced meal sizes, reduced number meals among others. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 23.8 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 17.5 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms (Figure Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone had recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions About 4,488 households benefitted from cash transfer program spread across Tiaty, Baringo North, Barinfo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties whereby each household received an average of Ksh 5,000. The program was supported by WFP in collaboration wih the County government of Baringo. 6.2 Non-food interventions NDMA is undertaking drought response interventions whereby 5,600 bags (50kg each) of drought survival pellets are being distributed in Mogotio and Tiaty sub counties targeting vulnerable households whereby each household will receive 4 bags that should be able to last them for eight weeks. Water trucking is also ongoing targeting schools and health institutions while nine plastic water tanks were procured and are being installed in selected schools. Red Kenya Cross Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There were both intra migration and out migration of livestock during the month under review in Tiaty sub county. Cases of insecurity were reported in Saimo soi ward in Baringo North, Nosukro and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South sub county. In both cases, loss of lives were reported with several herds of cattle being reported to have been stolen. With the onset of the long rains season, cases of flash floads are being reported. For instance, over 800 animals were swept away by floods in R7 area in Baringo South sub county due to floods. 7.3 Food security prognosis Following the onset of the long rains season, water access and availability is expected to improve in the next one month as water sources are expected to get recharged. This will therefore result in decline of trekking distances to water sources for both human and livestock water. Forage conditions will continue to be poor but with an improving trend for the next one month and therefore livestock body condition will remain poor to fair especially for cattle. Livestock productivity will therefore remain below LTA. Insecurity challenges are likely to continue being felt in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones with the possibility of some communities trying to restock their animals via illegal means following the onset of the long rains season. This is therefore likely to affect access to grazing fields and livestock markets due to fear of loss af animals. Terms of trade are expected to worsen in all livelihood zones as cereal prices are expected to remain high while livestock prices will remain low. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Supplementary livestock feeding program should be sustained for the productive livestock stocks that have been left behind at households. This will ensuresafeguarding of key livelihood assets for the vulnerable households in Pastoral and Agro pastoralMarginal mixed livelihood zones. Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Fast track livestock offtake program in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones to salvage animals that are in poor body conditions. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2022 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2022 JANUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rains during the second dekad of January which were poorly distributed. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is depicting moderate vegetation deficit. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 10-20 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Some livestock death cases which are drought related have been reported in the pastoral areas. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is high and above the long term Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score but on a deteriorating trend. PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 58.81 35-50 Of water in the water pan 10-20 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths reported Pastoral areas (for drought) Death cases No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 69.67 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) 4.95 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 21.2 16.1 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 14.65 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season started ealier than normal as from the second dekad of September and continued up to the first dekad of October 2021. The rains then performed dismally for the remainder of the season. The season ceaced early in most parts of the county as from the second dekad of December 2021. 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county received above normal rains during the second dekad of the month under review translating into 131 percent of the normal rains (Figure 1). The spatial distribution was fair as the rains were received in most parts of the county. The temporal distribution was poor as the rains were received for about two to three days after which it has not rained again in the county. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is below normal compared to the long term average. This was been attributed by poor performance of the short rains season. Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 28.64, depicting a moderate drought deficit for the four out of the six sub counties of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Tiaty while Eldama Ravine had above normal greenness (Figure 2). Mogotio sub county has the lowest VCI depicting severe vegetation deficit as shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Vagetation condition index trend Figure 2. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 4: pasture conditions Figure 5: Browse conditions Figure 6: State of water sources 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture pastures Pastoral Agropastoral livelihood zones are in poor conditions. (Figure 4) due to poor rainfall performance and invasive species that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures are in fair to poor conditions and on a deteriorating trend. In the Pastoral areas, cattle are being supplemented with branches of some indegineous trees to make them survive the current drought. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in the Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 5) while good to fair in the irrigated livelihood zone. The condition is below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were boreholes, traditional wells and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 10 to 20 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation and poor rainfall perfomance. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 7: Water access Figure 8: Grazing distances 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 5.3km, an increase of 17 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by seven percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 6.2 km. The increase in distances are attributed to drying up of water points . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by five percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 8.4km (Figure 8). The current distances are above the long term mean by 11 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9.8km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilomitres. The increase in return distances are attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 9: Livestock Body Condition Figure 10: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is generally thin and emaciated in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species(Figure 9). This has been occasioned by poor regenaration of pasture, browse and increased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to the diminishing pastures. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases have been reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi wakulima, Ngoswe, Logumgum, Longewan and kapkuikui while lumpy skin disease has been reported in Kabarnet,Kapropita ward,Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia areas. According to NDMA surveillance system, livestock death cases of about five parcent of cattle in the sampled households were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to drought related causes. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 0.8 litres, this was a decrease of 38 percent in relatation to the privious month (Figure 10). The decrease was contributed by deteriorating livestock body condtions. Agro pastoral had the highest average of 1.5 litres while irrigated cropping had the least average of 0.5 litres The current milk production is below LTAs by 55 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the anticipated long rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 11: Cattle prices Figure 13: Maize prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.15,630 a decrease of nine percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 17,214. (Figure 11). The decrease in prices is due to the deterioriating livestock condition across livelihood zones.The price was relatively similar to the short-term average. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.30,833 while pastoral livelihood recorded least average price Ksh.13,500. The prices are expected to decline further due to the poor livestock body condtion as a result of the ongoing drought. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat decreased slightly by two percent from the previous month at Ksh. 2,556, to Ksh.2,517 currently (Figure 12). The price was below the short term average (STA) by 12 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,617. Figure 12: Goat prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was an increase of three percent in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month at Ksh 49.3kg (Figure 13). The current prices are higher than the long-term average at this time of the year by 18 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminishing stocks at household level in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.50 per kg due to insecurities along the kerio Valley and Baringo North that resulted in disruption of kollowa and yatya markets, while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 14: Posho Figure 15: Beans prices Figure16:Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 57.2kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 54.8kg (Figure 14).The increase is as a result of increasing maize prices across the county. The price was above the short-term average by 16 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 60 while the irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.131.9 (Figure 15). The current prices are above the short-term average by 12 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.133 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.100. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity whereby the Pastoral livelihood zone has been depending on the neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet county for the supplies which were disrupted by insecurity 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 51.8 which was a decrease in comparison to the previous month at 53.8 (Figure 16), implying that a sale of one goat is likely to fetch 51 kg of maize. This has been attributed to decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 26 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 76.5 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 33.9. The low terms of trade in Agropastoral zone has been due to insecurity in the area that has led to disruption of Yatya market. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 19: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Figure 18: Food consumption scoore 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 0.8 litres as compared to the previous month at 0.9 litres which was a decrease of 11 percent. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 47 percent (Figure 17). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zones at 1.1 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 0.5 litre Figure17: Milk consumption Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 41.5 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 45.1. A proportion of 2.6, 39.3 and 58.1 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. More households have shifted to borderline in relation to the previous month. The Pastoral ,Irrigated, and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 38.8, 49.2 and 52.3 average food consumption Score respectively as compared to 42.4, 49.7 and 59.6 in the preceding month (Figure 18). The consumption is on a worsening trend as more households are shifting to poor and borderline consumption scores especially in Pastoral livelihood zone. This is attributed to declining food stocks at household level as a result of increasing food prices and poor terms of trade 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 21.2percent (Figure 19). This was an increase as compared to the previous month at 16.06. The cuurent proportions are above the LTA by 32 percent. The worsening nutrition status is contributed minimal consumption household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Figure 21: Coping strategy index By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 12.2 percent; this was an increase of 1.7 percent as compared to the previous month at 10.5 percent. (Figure 20). The worsening malnutriotion status is attributed to the decline of milk consumption at household level. The current proportion is above the long term average by 4.6 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported URTI and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 14.65 which was stable compared to the previous month at 14.36. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 21.6 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.4 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3 (Figure 21). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Figure 20: Nutrition status bu family MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The World Food Program (WFP) made a cash transfer targeting 4, 488 households spread in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo Central and Baringo South sub counties whereby each recipient received Ksh 5,000 under the WFP Assistance Program. 6.2 Non-food interventions Implementation of the Laikipia-Baringo Inter-County Integrated Drought Preparedness and Resilience Project has started though it has been bogged down by insecurity challenges in the project area. The project objective is to contribute to increased household income and the reduction of resource-based conflicts along the volatile BaringoLaikipia border (SosianChuro-Amaya). Review of the PDRA documents was completed while distribution of bee hivesand other materials is ongoing. The Project Duration is five years. Kenya Red Cross Livestock off take program is currently underway whereby about 4,141 cattle that are in poor body condition will be purchased from the identified farmers across the county and the meat will be distributed to needy vulnarabe households. The Sky Bird Regional Micro Project aims at improving sanitation status of households at risk of floods in Baringo South sub county. It will start in November 2021 to October 2022. Another program is Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response -by USAIDBHA (Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance) which is a Response Program- CVA and its key intervention is to contribute to improved food security and resilience of drought affected communities in Baringo County. The other upcoming health projects in the county includes ECHO COVID- 19 vaccination roll out across the county. Self Help Africa They have carried out promotion of sorghum, cassava and green grams. On livestock breeding, they have distributed galla bucks in October and they are planning to procure doper and Sahiwal bulls. They have done trainings on kitchen gardens to various women groups and also did the Lishe bora initiatives and mother to mother support group. Rehabilitation of water sources in Baringo North and Tiaty was done and have distributed 30 water tanks. Agriculture Sector Restoration of livelihoods destroyed by hazards- Done by Programs and development partners through provision of assorted relief seeds Support to Nutrition sensitive interventions through capacity Building and provision of planting materials for kitchen gardening and household water harvesting by County Government of Baringo, National Government, FAO, WFP, Red Cross, ACTED, WVK and NCCK. Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is on-going targeting over 400 groups in the county With the support of FAO, the depertment is distributing 4,500 bags of range cubes (50kg bag) targeting 1,125 beneficiary households spread in Tiaty, Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties. Vaccination against CCPP disease is ongoing Range land reseeding is on-going in Ilchamus ward, Baringo South sub county Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Training of groups on Livestock Upgrading through Self HelpAfricaFarming Systems KenyaSustainable Agriculture Information Initiatives(SHAFSKSAII) Training of Women and Youth in Groups on Beekeeping and Meat goat value chain development through Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme II(ASDSP II) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition Vaccination against COVID 19 With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. Community sensitization on hand washing practices and nutrition messages (wash-CLTS and nutrition at community level is ongoing Implementation of agri-nutrition activities to boost the resilience of the vulnerable groups and improve nutrition education knowledge School health and nutrition clubs in 10 schools-Tiaty west IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties CLTS plus trachoma elimination in Tiaty and parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties Coordination activities ongoing both at sub county and county level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were livestock migration during the month. In Tiaty, livestock were reported to be moving to West pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture. Other livestock have moved towards Mochongoi ward causing some security tension with the local communities. Insecurity cases were reported along the kerio valley which has resulted in disruption of kollowa market. 7.3 Food security prognosis Even though there were moderate rains in the second dekad of January, most of the water received has been lost due to high temperatures that have prevailed during the month while the rest was lost through surface seapage . Water access challenges are likely to get severe in the next one month across the county due to the poor performance of the short rains season. Areas that are likely to be most affected are in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones whereby any little waters that were captured by the water pans are likely to be lost through evaporation due to the prevailing high day time temperatures. Treckking distances to water points are expected to rise further as the available water is getting depleted. Forage conditions are expected to deteriorate further especially in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones due to moisture stress. Livestock migration will continue to pick up in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones as the traditional dry season grazing grounds are not available due to insecurity challenges that are being experienced both within and in the neighbouring counties. Livestock body condition for cattle is likely to worsen in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and therefore affecting livestock productivity in terms of milk production. Livestock mortality cases are likely to increase further in the next one month. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to continue being felt in parts of Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Undertake water trucking in the most affected schools and health fascilitiesfor the purpose of maintaining service delivery. Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To Equip the already drilled boreholes Purchase new water boozers and to repair and service the old ones To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Health facilities closed due to lack of staff to be given staff Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Continuous health, Nutrition surveillance. Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups Promote school health and nutrition clubs in schools 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Fast track livestock offtake program in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones to salvage animals that are in poor body conditions. Provision of relief livestock feed for the productive stocks in the areas hardest hit by drought. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Stockpiling of livestock feed supplements in reddiness for any emerging drought contition Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed Provision of pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding. Upgrading and improvement of local indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep and goats 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2022 Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2022 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2022 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county experienced dry spells during the month under review The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI depicted moderate vegetation deficit Mogotio sub county having severe vagatation deficit. The Water levels in most water sources were below normal at 10-20 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Livestock death cases which were drought related were reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was high and above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is stable and within normal seasonal range. PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALARM WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALARM WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 25.84 35-50 Of water in the water pan 10-20 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 21.09 16.6 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution The county experienced dry spells for the better part of the month under review with some pockets receiving light drizzles of less than two days (Figure 1). Both the temporal and spatial distribution was very poor. The vegetation greenness according to normalized differeantial vegetation index (NDVI) is below normal compared to the long term average and this was attributed by poor performance of the short rains season. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean (LTA) and this was attributed to the failure in rainfall seasons for the last three seasons (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index is 25.84, depicting a moderate drought for the four sub counties of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Tiaty while Eldama Ravine had normal vegetation greenness (Figure 3). Mogotio sub county was experiencing severe vegetation deficit for the past two months. The VCI trend for Mogotio sub county was extremely below normal translating into severe vegetation deficit (Figure 4). Figure 4: Vagetation condition index trend-Mogotio sub county Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure 5: pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: State of water sources 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pastures in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones were in very poor conditions and were depleted due to the cumulative impact of failures of three successive rainfall seasons(Figure 5). In the Irrigated livelihood zone the pastures were fair to poor and on a worsening trend. The pastures will last for one month in Irrigated livelihood given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agropastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6) while good to fair in the Irrigated livelihood zone. The condition is below normal as compared to seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and three months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were traditional river wells, boreholes and water pans, (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were at less than 10 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation and poor rainfall perfomance. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure 8: Water access 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 6.9km, an increase of 30 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The distances are above the long term average (LTA) by 16 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 7.6 km. The increase in distances was attributed to drying up of water points . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by 29 percent in comparison to the previous month whereby the distance was at 10.8km (Figure 9). The current distances were above the long term mean by 29 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded longest average return distance 12.4km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of four kilomitres. The increase in return distances were attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. Figure 9: Water access Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition Figure 11: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition was generally thin with emaciated and thin fore ribs visible in the Pastoral and parts of Agro pastoral livelihood zones for the cattle species (Figure 10). This was occasioned by dimimishing of pasture, browse and water resources in these zones. Consequently, livestock mortality cases for cattle were reported whereby about three percent of the total animals owned in the sampled households in the Pastoral livelihood zone succumbed due to starvation. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to the depleted pastures. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some cases of livestock diseases were reported and include pestes des petits ruminants (PPR), Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), East coast fever, foot and mouth (FMD) in Kampi wakulima, Ngoswe, Logumgum, Longewan and kapkuikui while lumpy skin disease has been reported in Kabarnet,Kapropita ward,Tartar, Sosion, Kituro and Sesia areas. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 0.8 litres, this was similar in relatation to the previous month (Figure 11). The low milk production contributed deteriorating livestock body condtions. Irrigated crop livelihood zone had the highest average milk production of 1.5 litres while Agropastoral zone had the least average of 0.1 litres The current milk production is below LTAs by 47 percent. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have prepared their farms in preparation for the anticipated long rains. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure 12: Cattle prices Figure 14: Maize prices Figure13: Goat prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh. 14,315 a decrease of eight percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 15,630. (Figure 12). The decrease in prices is due to the poor livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was relatively similar the short-term average (STA). Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.31,000 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.11,429. The prices are expected to decline further due to the poor livestock condition as a result of the ongoing drought. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Ksh.2,517 in relation to the previous month (Figure 13). The price was below the STA by 11 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,000 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,471. The falling prices was as a result deteriorating livestock condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was an increase of three percent in the current maize prices in comparison to the previous month at Ksh 50.6kg (Figure 14). The current prices were higher than the long-term average at this time of the year by 16 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished maize stocks at household level in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.52 per kg due to insecurities that resulted in disruption of markets, while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure15: Posho Figure 16: Beans prices Figure17:Terms of trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 58kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 57kg (Figure 15). The increase in prices was attributed to insecurities along the kerio Valley that resulted in disruption of kollowa market and diminishing maize stocks at household level in the Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. The price was above the STA by 14 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 60 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least average price of Ksh. 50. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.130 (Figure 16). The current price was above the STA by 13 percent. The Agro pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.137 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.97. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 50 which was relatively stable in comparison to the previous month at 51 (Figure 17). This was attributed to decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 24 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 78 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 33. Insecurity challenges in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the worsening of the terms of trade. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure19: Food consumption score Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition Figure 18: Milk consumption 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption average consumption household per day was at 0.7 litres as compared to the previous month at 0.8 litres and this was a decrease of 13 percent. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 48 percent (Figure 18). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zones at 1.2 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 0.5 litre. Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 42.7 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 45.1. A proportion of three, 37 and 60 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline acceptable consumption scores respectively. More households have shifted to borderline in relation to the previous month. The Pastoral ,Irrigated cropping, and Agro pastoral livelihood zones had 39.6, 50.6 and 56.2 average food consumption score respectively as compared to 42.4, 49.7 and 59.6 for the preceeding month (Figure 19). About 53 percent of the households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption as most of them were experiencing food consumption gaps due to the worsening food security situation. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was at 21 percent (Figure 20). This was an increase as compared to the previous month at 12 percent. The curent proportion is above the LTA by 27 percent. The worsening nutrition status was contributed by minimal milk consumption at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 Figure 21: proportion of malnourished Children by family Figure 22: Coping strategy index By family MUAC, the proportion of children malnourished was 12.4 percent, this was a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 12.2 percent. (Figure 21). The worsening malnutriotion status was attributed decline consumption at household level. The current proportion was above the long term average by five percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South and Tiaty sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was stable compared to the previous month at 15. Households in Agro pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 24 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 16 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.3 (Figure 22). Overall, households in Agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Non-food interventions 6.1 Food interventions The World Food Program (WFP) made a cash transfer targeting 4, 488 households spread in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo Central and Baringo South sub counties whereby each recipient received Ksh 5,000 under the WFP Assistance Program. Red Cross is targeting 3,036 households in Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, and Tiaty sub counties with food vouchers. 6.2 Non-food interventions Implementation of the Laikipia-Baringo Inter-County Integrated Drought Preparedness and Resilience Project has started though it has been bogged down by insecurity challenges in the project area. The project objective is to contribute to increased household income and the reduction of resource-based conflicts along the volatile BaringoLaikipia border (SosianChuro-Amaya). Review of the PDRA documents was completed while distribution of bee hivesand other materials is ongoing. The Project Duration is five years. Kenya Red Cross Livestock off take program has been planned whereby about 4,141 cattle that are in poor body condition will be purchased from the identified farmers across the county and the meat will be distributed to needy vulnarabe households.. Agriculture Sector Restoration of livelihoods destroyed by hazards- Done by Programs and development partners through provision of assorted relief seeds Support to Nutrition sensitive interventions through capacity Building and provision of planting materials for kitchen gardening and household water harvesting by County Government of Baringo, National Government, FAO, WFP, Red Cross, ACTED, WVK and NCCK. Livestock sector Livestock breed upgrading through use of galla goats and Sahiwal bulls is on-going targeting over 400 groups in the county With the support of FAO, the depertment is distributing 4,500 bags of range cubes (50kg bag) targeting 1,125 beneficiary households spread in Tiaty, Baringo South, Baringo North and Mogotio sub counties. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Water sector The Central Rift Valley Water Services Board boreholes is targeting to repair 30 boreholes in Tiaty sub county and will be in two phases whereby the first phase is on-going. They are planning to distribute water tanks to schools whose details were shared by NDMA. They are also planning to undertake water tracking to selected health and education fascilities. Health and Nutrition Vaccination against COVID 19 With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties CLTS plus trachoma elimination in Tiaty and parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties Coordination activities ongoing both at sub county and county level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were both intra migration and out migration of livestock during the month under review in Tiaty sub county. The livestock were reported to have moved to West pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture. Insecurity cases were reported along the kerio valley which has resulted in disruption of kollowa market. Other cases of insecurity were reported in Saimo soi ward in baringo North, Nosukro and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South sub county. In both cases, loss of lives were reported with several herds of cattle being reported to have been stolen. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access challenges are likely to get severe in the next one month across the county due to the poor performance of the short rains season. Areas that are likely to be most affected are in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. Treckking distances to water points are expected to rise further as most of the water pans have dried up. Forage conditions are expected to deteriorate further especially in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones due to moisture stress. Livestock migration will continue to pick up in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones as the traditional dry season grazing grounds are not available due to insecurity challenges that are being experienced both within and in the neighbouring counties. Livestock body condition for cattle will worsen in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and therefore affecting livestock productivity in terms of milk production. Livestock mortality due to starvation will continue to increase mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. The current insecurity challenges in Laikipia and Elgeyo Marakwet counties are expected to continue being felt in parts of Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties and consequently affecting livestock access to pastures and water. This is therefore likely to affect market operations leading to a decline in livestock prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The conflict will also affect market operations thus disrupting free flow of goods between the three counties. In the Pastoral areas, cases of malnutrition will continue to persist due to poor dietary diversity as households will find it difficult to access nutritious food stuffs from the markets due to the existing low purchasing power and poor market functionality. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Undertake water trucking in the most affected schools and health fascilitiesfor the purpose of maintaining service delivery. Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Purchase new water boozers and to repair and service the old ones To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Supplementary livestock feeding program is urgently required for the productive livestock stocks that have been left behind at households. This will ensuresafeguarding of key livelihood assets for the vulnerable households in Pastoral and Agro pastoralMarginal mixed livelihood zones. Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Fast track livestock offtake program in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones to salvage animals that are in poor body conditions. Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves is recommended mostly in the pastoral and agro pastoral areas. Stockpiling of livestock feed supplements in reddiness for any emerging drought contition Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Farmers to be educated the farmers the type of animals that can survive during drought season in arid areas - Continuous extension services among livestock farmers are needed. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes and canaling. Support household with water harvesting skills which can be used for small scale food production",
            "Baringo 2022 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2022 SEPTEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal rainfall which was good in terms of amount received and distribution The Vegetation greenness as represented by the VCI depicted above normal vegetation greeness Status of water sources was normal with a recharge level of over 80 percent. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were good both in quality and quantity Livestock body condition was mostly good for cattle across the livelihood zones. Milk production was normal across all livelihood zones Access indicators Terms of trade are very poor and below long term means Trekking distances to water points are within the seasonal range across the livelihood zones. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was stable but slightly above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) was stable PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO -PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value for the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 182 80-120 VCI-3month 63.98 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHDay) 1.86 Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water Households-trekking distance (km) 3.1 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 16.54 Milk Consumption (Ltr HHDay) 15.77 13.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweedi 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance Rainfall performance during the month under review was good across the county whereby about 182 parcent of the normal rains were received by the end of the second dekad (Figure 1). Field observations showed that about 85 and 15 percent of the respondents observed the rains being good and fair respectively during the month under review. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean and this was attributed to performance of rains during the previous seasons (Figure 2). 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall Figure 3: Ward level 3 month VCI Figure 4: 3 Month County VCI Figure 5: Pasture conditions Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7:Water sources 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month VCI in Figure 3 and 4 depicts above normal vegetation greeness across the county.This was attributed to by the regeneration of natural vagetation as a result of the impacts of the off season rains being experienced in the county.The current VCI value is at 63.98. Field observation Pasture The pastures were mainly in good conditions across the livelihood zones although there were pockets in the Pastoral livelihood zone that had pastures in fair conditions (Figure 5). This status might improve as the county enters the short rains season. The pastures are expected to last for two to three months. Browse During the reporting month the browse condition was mostly good at 81 percent with another 19 percent being observed to be in fair condition in all livelihood zones. With the expected onset of the short rains season the browse is expected to improve and may last for four months in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoal livelihood zones and upto five months in the Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.1 Water Sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, pans dams and traditional river wells (Figure 7). Most water pans Figure 10. Livestock Body Condition Figure 8:Household Water distances Figure 9: Livestock grazing distances dams were above 80 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization. The average household trekking distance to water sources decreased by 10 percent from 3.9 km last month to 3.1 km currently (Figure 8). The distances were above LTA by 10 percent. The average trekking distances were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 4.8km while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was one kilomitre. The reducing trekking distances was attributed to by the ongoing recharge of water sources . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 5.9 km, a decrease of 20 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 9). The trekking distances were above the LTA by five percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was 6.8, 4.4 and two kilomitres respectively. The decrease in distance was attributed to recharge of water sources due to impact of off season rains that were received in the county. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition About 78 percent of the sampled cattle had fair to good livestock body condition while another 22 percent were in poor condition. The livestock body condition is expected to continue improving due to availability of good forage. Figure11: Milk production Figure 12: Cattle prices 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist in parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was an increase in milk production by about six percent in comparson to the previous month of August though it is still marginally below the LTA by nine percent (Figure 11). Production was highest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.4 litres while the Irrigated and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had two and 0.3 litres respectively . The milk is mainly coming from the goats as the cattle are still recovering. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The crop is at different stages with the early planted maize which received rains maturing and also harvesting is going on at the irrigation schemes. In the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, there was 100 percent crop failure. The early planted beans under irrigation have been harvested in Baringo South sub county while Irish potatoes have been harvested in Eldama Ravine Sub County. Wheat crop has started to head in Mochongoi ward of Baringo South Sub County. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh 15,465, a rise of 10 percent in comparison to the previous month and the price was below the short term average (STA) by 13 percent (Figure 12). The highest prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kas 20,582 with Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 14,576 and Ksh 10,500 respectively. The prices are Figure 13: Goat prices Figure 14: Maize prices Figure 15: Posho price likely to improve due to the prevailing good forage conditions. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average goat prices are at Ksh 2,680 per head, an increase of two percent in comparison to the previous month and that the price is below STA by 10 percent (Figure 13). The lowest price was observed in Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,000 while Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,642 and Ksh 3,333 respectively. The prices are attributed to good body condition especially in Pastoral areas where browse is in fair to good condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by three percent from Ksh.89 to 91 currently. (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 52 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.95 per kg while Irrigated Cropping and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the lowest at Ksh.60 per kg each. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize flour) The average household posho price was at Ksh 108kg, an increase by five percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 53 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to increased maize and fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 112 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the least average price of Ksh.75. 4.2.3 Beans Prices Figure 16: Beans prices Figure 17: Terms of trade Figure 18: Mil kconsumption The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.145 (Figure 16), a decrease of eight percent compared to the previous month. The current price was above the STA by 20 percent. The Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.170 and Ksh 154 respectively while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.120. The high prices was attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade were stable in relation to the previous month at 29.4 (Figure 17). This was attributed to increased maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 126 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 55.6 while Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 25. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are some of the factors contributing to the worsening of the terms of trade. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption per day was at 1.6 litres, an increase of seven percent compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by three percent (Figure 18). Milk consumption was highest in Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones at an average of two litres while in the Agro-Pastoral livevilihood zone, milk consumption was less than one litre . Figure Proportion Children Malnutrition Figure 19: Food consumption score Figure 21: Family MUAC 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) During the month under review, about 58, 36, and 6.7 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline consumption score respectively. Pastoral livelihood zone had the worst food consumption with 41.6 and 8.6 percent of the households having borderline respectively followed by Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone with 30 percent of the households having borderline FCS (Figure 19). The deterioration in FSC across the livelihood zones was attributed to households having inadequite and poor quality food being consumed by households. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was at 16.6 parcent, a decrease of 11 percent compared to the previous month (Figure 20). The stability was contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rate was still above the LTA by 22 percent, a situation that was being contributed by scarcity of food at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. By family MUAC, the proportion of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 0.1, 7.9 and eight percent respectively (Figure 21). Compared to the previous month, GAM rates dropped by 12 percent. 5.3.2 Health Figure 22. Coping Strategy Index During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in all livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was at 15.77, which was a minimal decrease as compared to the previous month at 16. The Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 16.1, 25 and 4.1 rCSI respectively (Figure 22). The most adopted strategies were reduction in the number of meal sizes, reduction in meal size portions consuming prefferedexpensive food especially in the Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 1,200 bags of rice (50kg), 2,160 bags of beans (50kg) and 600 cartons of corn beef for distribution to the vulnerable households affected by drought in the county. World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three onths in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organisation is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 I n three tranches. This is a onne off program that is expected to last for about four months. 6.2 Non-food interventions Red Kenya Cross Red Kenya Cross Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Emergency livestock offtake by the National Government through the Red Cross Society was successfully concluded whereby about 2,053 animals were slaughtered and the meat fed to the local beneficiaries. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition SMART survey on nutrition status was done Tiaty East and West sub counties and the final analysis of the results is ongoing. With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to improve significantly in the next one month as most of the water sources have received good recharge. This will lead to fecline in trecking distances to watering points for both livestock and humans and consequently improve water utilization. Forage conditions will continue to improve in the next one month as a result of the impact of the off season rains received during the month under review. Livestock body condition is therefore expected to continue recovering which wil enhance milk production. Market conditions are expected to improve whereby livestock prices will continue to improve due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. On the other hand, cereal prices are expected to decline due to the limited harvesting of maize being done in the County. Terms of trade are therefore expected to improve though they will still be below LTA. Food consumption as depicted by food consumption score is expected to improve marginally due to improvement in milk consumption and the expected cereals availability due to the ongoing food harvest. Households are expected to apply less severe coping strategies in meeting their food needs . Malnutrition cases are likely to decline marginally in the next one month as a result of improved household milk consumption as well as the ongoing nutrition intervention programs. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance pest control especially in the face of outbreak of the African army worms that have the potential to cause significant crop losses in the farms. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening",
            "Baringo 2022 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2022 November EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators The county received below normal rains during the month that were poorly distributed . The Vegetation Condition Index values for Baringo County are above normal but on a declining trend compared to last month. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at (30-40). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The pasture condition is poor to fair in both quality and quantity and expected to deteririote with the dry spells being experienced. Livestock body condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly below the normal seasonal range and on a decreasing trend. No Drought related livestock deaths were reported Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal ranges and on a worsening trend. Distances to water sources for households were above normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 16.51, which was above the Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo () Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 56.99 35-50 Of water in the water pan 30-40 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) 1.84 Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 18.74 12.6 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 16.85 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance The performance of the short rains season was very poor both in terms of amount received and the distribution. The onset was observed during the second dekad of November in some pockets of Mixed farming livelihood zone particularly in parts of Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties for a period of two to three days . The distribution in space and time was very poor, as most parts of the counties have hardly received any rains so far. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall The cumulative rainfall amount received by the end of the month under review was below the long term average (LTA), a situation that was attributed to the poor performance of the rainfall seasons this year. Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall Figure 4. Pasture Condition 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) Figure 3: 3Month VCI The average county three months VCI is 56.99 which depicts avove normal vegetation greenness, a scenario that cuts across all the six sub counties (Figure 3). Since VCI is a late outcome indicator in response to precipitation, the current scenario is attributed to the off season rains received in July to September this year. In the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, the dorminance of invasive species which are relatively resistant to moisture stress could also be a contributing factor in the current scenario whereby most of them are in good condition. 2.2 Field observation 2.2.1 Pasture The pasture condition was mostly fair to poor in the county. For the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, pasture conditions were poor to fair respectively. There were few pockets in the Irrigated livelihood zone which had good pastures but the rest was fair. (Figure 4). Pasture conditions are likely to worsen due the prevailing dry conditions. The current pasture conditions are below the normal seasonal range.The pastures are expected to last for one month, two months and two to three months in the Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones respectively. Figure 5. Browse Condition Figure 6: Water sources 2.2.2 Browse During the month under review, the browse condition was fair to poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone while in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone the browse was in fair conditions with a few areas having good browse (Figure 5). The browse was good in the irrigated livelihood zone. Following poor performance of the short rains season, the browse is expected to deteroriate and may last for two, three and three to four months in the Pastoral, Agro- Pastoal and Irrigated livelihood zones respectively. 2.3 Water access and utilization 2.3.1 Water sources The major water sourcs for both livestock and human consumption during the month under review were pandams and traditional river wells (Figure 6). Most water pans dams were about 30 to 40 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and 50 to 60 percent in the irrigated livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated livelihood zone. A number of water pans have dried up in the Pastoral livelihood zone among them kapunyany and Loyeya. The water quality is poor due to congestion at the watering points. 2.3.2 Household access and utilization There was a marginal increase in the average household trekking distance to water sources from 4.1 km in the preceding month to 4.2 km currently.(Figure 7). The distances were above LTA by 10 percent. The average trekking distances were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zones at 5.6km while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was one kilomitre. The increasing trekking distances was attributed to the drying up of open water sources due to poor performance of the short rains season. Figure 7: Trekking distance 2.3.3 Livestock acces The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 7.3 km, in comparison to the previous month, translating to an increase of seven percent (Figure 8). The distances were above the LTA by 21 percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was 8, 7.4 and two kilomitres respectively. The rise in distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and water sources due to the current dry conditions in the county. The distance are expected to surge following poor performance of the short rains (OND) season. Figure 8.Livestock Grazing Distance 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month under review, the livestock body condition was mostly moderate (neither fat nor thin). However in some pockets of the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone the livestock body condition was borderline implying that the foreribs were not visible due to the dry spells being experienced in those areas (Figure 9). The livestock body condition is expected to continue declining due to declining forages across all livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist in parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk production per household per day during the month was at 1.3 litres. This was a drop of 19 percent in comparison to the previous month. The current amount is below the long term mean by 29 percent (Figure 10). Production was highest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.3 litres while the Irrigated and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones had 1.9 and 0.8 litres respectively . The milk is mainly from camels in the Pastoral areas and goats in the other livelihood zones. Milk production is expected to drop further due to declining livestock body condition. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The farmers in the Irrigated livelihood zone have already planted short term crops such as green grams, tomatoes and vegetables after harvesting the maize crop. In Agro Pastoral livelihood zone, no crop harvest took place due to total crop failure. In the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially the highland the maize has dried up in the farms ready for harvesting. Generally the average yields in the county are expected to be below the long term average. Figure 9. Livestock Body Condition Figure 10. Milk Production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. Figure 11: Cattle prices The average market price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh14,722 during the reporting period. The price decreased minimally as compared to the previous month by one percent. In comparison to the short term average (STA), the price was below by 23 percent (Figure 11). The highest average prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kas 19,666 with Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 10,000 and Ksh 14,690 respectively. The low prices are due to disruption of livestock markets in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to the ongoing security operations. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. There was a marginal decrease in the average price of a goat at Ksh 2,500 per head as equated to the previous month at Ksh. 2,652 The price is below STA by 15 percent (Figure 12). The lowest price was observed in Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,000 while Pastoral and Irigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,429 and Ksh 3,500 respectively. The low prices are attributed the to the disruption of major livestock markets especially in Pastoral areas as a result of the ongoing security operations. Figure 12. Goat Prices Figure 14: Posho prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize decreased by 14 percent from Ksh.96 to Ksh 83 currently (Figure 13). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 91 percent. The high maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations, increased cost of transport due to high fuel prices has also affected the market prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.95 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.60 per kg. Figure 13: Maize prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) During the month under review, the average price for a kilogram of posho was at Ksh.96, a decrease of 14 percent compared to the previous month (Figure 14). The price was above the STA by 90 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to scarcity of maize commodity and high fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 109 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the least average price of Ksh.70. Figure 16. Terms of Trade 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans decreased marginally by five percent in comparison to the previous month as they retailed at Kshs.152 (Figure 15). The current price was above the STA by 30 percent. The Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices at Ksh.170 and Ksh 160 respectively while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least price at Ksh.100. The general high prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade were at 30, a rise of seven percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 16). This was attributed to decreased maize prices due to harvesting in the highlands and neighbouring counties. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 56 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 58 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 26. The disruption of livestock markets in Pastoral livelihood zone and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones are some of the factors contributing to the poor terms of trade. Figure 15. Beans Prices 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption per day was at 1.3 litres, a decrease of 20 percent compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 26 percent (Figure 17). Milk consumption was highest in Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones at an average of 2.2 and 1.9 litres respectively while in the Agro-Pastoral livevilihood zone, milk consumption was less than one litre . The declining milk consumption is attributed to reduction in milk production as a result of deteriorating livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) The average food consumption score was at 37.1 an the situation is slightly stable as compared to the previous month. About 49.8,42.4 and 7.8 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores respectively from 52.8, 39, and 8.2 the previous month. Pastoral livelihood zone had the worst food consumption with 49.8 and 10 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS respectively followed by Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone with 33.3 of the households having borderline FCS (Figure 18). Generally Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones had 34.7, 45.05 and 46.8 food consumption scores respectively. The deterioration in FSC across the livelihood zones was attributed to households having inadequite and poor quality food being consumed by households members. Figure 17. Milk Consumption Figure 18. Food Consumption Score 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was at 18.74 percent, an increase as compared to 16.5 in October.(Figure 19). The deteroriating nutrition status of the under fives was contributed by the food consumption gaps at households and decrease in milk consumption. However with the ongoing nutrition interventions through outreache services, the situation is expected to remain stable. The curent rates were still above the LTA and the upper limit. The sentinel sites with increased cases of malnutrition are Komolion, Akoret, Kiserian, Maron, Kapenguria( Ngoron) and Kollowa. By family MUAC, the proportion of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) was at 0.5 and 10.4 percent from 0.4 and 8.5 respectively the previous month (Figure 20). The GAM rates are on an increasing trend, this is due to decreasing milk consumption at household levels. The rates were high in Pastoral livelihood zones especially in Akoret, maron, Kapenguria ( Ngoron) and orus sentinel sites. Figure 20;proportion of children malnourished by family MUAC 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral -livelihood zones. Figure 19.Proportion of Children at Risk of Malnutrition Figure 21. Coping Strategy Index 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was at16.85, which was an increase as compared to the previous month at 16.04. The Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones had 17.3, 27.2 and 3.6 rCSI respectively (Figure 21). The most adopted strategies were reduction in the number of meal times, reduction in meal size portions and consuming less prefferedexpensive food especially in the Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. About 15 and three percent of households sampled employed stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies respectively. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 1,200 bags (50kg) of rice, 2,160 bags (50kg) and 600 cartons of corn beef for distribution to the vulnerable households affected by drought in the county. World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three onths in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organisation is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 I n three tranches. This is a onne off program that is expected to last for about four months. Kenya Red Cross About 20 schools across various sub counties were targeted with food relief Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Nutrition Early Action for Scalable Response in Emergencies project which is being supported by UNICEF, is being implemented in two sub counties namely Tiaty West and Tiaty East . It supports 20 hard to reach sites with integrated medical outreaches. Construction of Concrete water tank and piping done in Kaburgei and the training of its water management committee was done. Through the Skybird WASH Micro Program, training of artisans and KRCS volunteers on construction of innovative latrines using interlocking soil blocks has taken place in Baringo South. Livestock sector Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is espected to deteriorate drastically in the next one month following the dismal performance of the short rains. Trekking distances to watering points are therefore expected to rise significantly especially in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. Forage conditions will likely deteriorate further due to the expected increases in moisture stress. This will likely cause a deterioration in livestock body condition leading to reduced livestock productivity especially in Pastorl and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Increased livestock migration is likely to be witnessed in some pockets of the county especially in Pastoral areas. Reduction in milk production is also expected in the next one month due to the expected decline in forage and water availability. Market conditions are likely to continue being affected by ongoing security operations in Tiaty areas as traders are likely to keep off . Cereal prices are likely to remain above LTA while livestock prices will remain low. Terms of trade will therefore remain poor especially in Pastoral areas and therefore affecting household food access. Food consumption as depicted by food consumption score will remain poor in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones as household will likely continue consuming food that is poor in diversity and nutrients. Households are expected to start applying more crisis coping strategies in meeting their food requirements and therefore affecting nutrition status of household members. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health. Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Pasture establishment and conservation should be enhanced across all livelihood zones Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Promote kitchen gardening initiatives that can take advantage of the anticipated depressed short rains season",
            "Baringo 2022 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2022 JULY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Worsening Biophysical Indicators The county received normal rainfall which was fair to poor in terms of amount received and distribution The Vegetation greenness as represented by the 3 month VCI depicted very good conditions in the county. Status of water sources are below normal with a recharge level of 40-50 percent. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios were mainly poor to fair in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was poor to fair for cattle in Pastoral and Agrop- pastoral livelihood zones . Milk production was below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones Access indicators Terms of trade are very poor and below long term means Trekking distances to water points are slightly above long term mean and increasing. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) is above LTA and worsening. PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 51.89 35-50 Of water in the water pan 40-50 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHday) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr HHday) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 13.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Rainfall performance during the month under review was poor as the month was charecterised by mostly dry spells with some pockets receiving light showers that had uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution (Figure 1). Field observations showed that about 42 and 29 percent of the respondents observed the rains being poor and fair respectively during the month under review. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean and this was attributd to poor performance of the long rains season (Figure 2). Figure. 1. Rainfall performance Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 4: pasture condition Figure 5: Browse condition 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as shown by the three month VCI in Figure 3 depicts very good conditions in Tiaty, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine and Baringo Central sub counties while Mogotio and Baringo North sub counties have normal vegetation greenness.This could have been attributed to by the regeneration of shrubs as a result of their positive response to the modest rains received in the county. The current VCI value is at 51.89. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pastures were mainly poor to fair in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones whereas only 18 percent of the pastures were in good condition mainly in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. (Figure 4). This status might get worse as the county enters the dry season since the pastures requires sustained rains to initiate recovery. 2.1.1.2 Browse In the Pastoral and Agro -pastoral livelihood zones, the browse condition was mostly fair at 67 percent with another 11 percent being observed to be in poor condition (Figure 5). About 22 percent of the browse was in good condition and this was mainly observed in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. With the expected dry spell conditions, the browse is expected to deteriorate and may last for only two months in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoal livelihood zones. Figure 3. Vegetation Condition Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 6: State of water sources Figure 7: Water access Figure 8: Grazing distances 2.2.1 Main water sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers,pans dams and traditional river wells (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were above 40-50 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and five month in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources increased slightly from 3.9 km last month to 4.4 km in July, translating to 13 percent increament (Figure 7). The distances were above LTA by 16 percent. The average trekking distances in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones was five kilometres for both while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was two kilomitres. The rise in trekking distances was attributed to by the prevailing dry spells coupled by poor recharge of water sources due to dismal performance of the rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 7.5 km, a marginal increase by seven percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 8). The trekking distances are above the LTA by 14 percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro- Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was nine, six and two kilomitres respectively. The increase in distance was attributed to by poor recharge of water sources due to poor performance of the season while the available water is getting depleted at the same time. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 9. Livestock Body Condition Figure10: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, about 30 percent of cattle were in poor body condition while another 26 and 11 percent had visible foreribs and borderline foreribs not being visible respectively (Figure 9). About 22 and another 11 percent of the cattle had borderline and good body condition respectively and this was observed mainly in Irrigated ans and parts of Agro - pastoral livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist n parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was a marginal increase in milk production by about nine percent in comparison to the previous month of June though it is still below the LTA by 55 percent (Figure 10). Production was highest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.5 litres while the Irrigated and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had 1.2 and 0.9 litres respectively . The milk is mainly coming from the goats as most cattle have not yet attained good body condition for optimum productivity. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most crops especially maize planted in Agro- pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones were in poor condition due to moisture stress. The area planted during the current season with maize was near normal at 96 percent of the LTA and this was due to depressed season, the most affected sub-counties being Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty. The crops were showing signs of water stress in all lower areas of the county that might end up into crop failure but along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine there was a good crop There were reported cases of infestation by crop pests whereby about 21 percent of the area planted was affected by the African army worms across the county and the dry spells that occurred within the season created a favorable condition for the multiplication of the pests. The projected production for maize is expected to be about 60 percent of the LTA in the county and this was contributed by crop failure in county estimated to be at 56 percent. The estimated crop failure rates are 35, 80, 65, 55, and 70 percent for Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, and Baringo South sub counties respectively while 55 percent of the crops in the irrigated areas is likely to fail Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 13: Maize prices Figure 12: Goat prices Figure 11: Cattle prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium- sized cattle was Ksh 13,074, a decline of 12 percent in comparison to the previous month and the price was below the short term average (STA) by 14 percent (Figure 11). The highest prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kas 19, 500 with Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 12,738 and Ksh 9,000 respectively. The prices are likely to remain below STA due to poor forage conditions, which in turn is affecting livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average goat prices were at Ksh 2,345 per head, a decline of six percent in comparison to the previous month and that the price was below STA by 14 percent (Figure 12). The lowest price was observed in Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 1,500 while Pastoral and Irigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,233 and Ksh 2,500 respectively. The prices were below STA as most of the goats were yet to regain their normal livestock body condition especially in Agro- pastoral areas where browse is in fair condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by 17 percent from Ksh.86 to 101 currently. (Figure 13). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 51 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.103 per kg while Irrigated Cropping and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the lowest price at Ksh.90 per kg each. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 16:Terms of Trade Figure 15: Beans Prices Figure 14: Posho Prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 117kg, an increase of 15 percent compared to the previous month (Figure 14). The price was above the STA by 52 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to increased maize and fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 121 while the Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the least average price of Ksh.100 each . 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.153 (Figure 15), an increase of six percent compared to the previous month. The current price was above the STA by 15 percent. The Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.162 and Ksh 160 respectively while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.100. The general increase in prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade declined by 20 percent from 29 to 23 in comparison to the previous month (Figure 16). This was attributed to increased maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 119 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 28 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 17. Insecurity challenges, poor livestock body condition and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are some of the factors contributing to the worsening of the terms of trade. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 17: Milk Consumption Figure 18:Food Consumption Score Figure 19: Nutrition status by MUAC 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption was stable at 1.1 litres per day, a marginal increase of one percent compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 35 percent (Figure 17). Milk consumption was almost similar across livelihood zones at one litre per household per 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) During the month under review, about 46, 48, and 6.3 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption score(FCS) respectively. Pastoral livelihood zone had the worst food consumption with 54 and six percent of the households having borderline and poor FCS followed by Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone with 30 and 3.3 of the households having borderline and poor FCS (Figure 18). About 20 percent of the sampled households in the Irrigated livelihood zone had borderline FCS. The deterioration in FSC across the livelihood zones was attributed to households having anadequite and poor quality food being consumed as food security situation worsens. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was stable at 19.6 parcent, a marginal increase of two percent compared to the previous month (Figure 19). The stability was contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported County Government therapeutic products. However, the curent rates were still above the LTA by 25 percent, a situation that was being contributed by scarcity of food at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 Figure 20: Family Muac Figure 21:Coping Strategy Index By family MUAC, the proportion of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 1.1, 11.2 and 12.3 percent respectively (Figure 20). Compared to the previous month. GAM rates rose by 46 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Pastoral livelihood zone. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was at 17, which was a slight increase of six percent compared to the previous month. The Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and the Irrigated livelihood zones had 17, 24.3 and 5.2 rCSI respectively (Figure 21). The most adopted strategies were reduction in the number of meals per day, reduction in meal portions and consuming less prefferedexpensive food especially in the Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 3, 360 bags (50kg) of rice and 3,360 bags (50kg) of beans for distribution to the vulnerable households in the county. World Food Program is planning to target 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 6.2 Non-food interventions Red Kenya Cross Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Emergency livestock offtake by the National Government through the Kenya Red Cross Society is ongoing targeting about 2,053 animals across the county. Distribution of 60 Sahiwal bulls to various farmer groups for improving the local breeds. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition SMART survey on nutrition status was done Tiaty East and West sub counties and the final analysis of the results is ongoing. With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to have a deteriorating trend with steady increase in trekking distances and waiting time as the available water volumes will decline due to high usage and poor recharge. This will therefore reduce available water for livestock and human consumption particularly in the low land areas that comprise Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones. Browse condition may remain in fair condition and stable but if the dry conditions continues, then the conditions will start seteriorating by the end of the month. As for pastures, they are likely to remain in poor conditions due to lack of adequate rains to trigger regenaration. Cattle are therefore likely to remain in poor to fair conditions mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production and consumption are likely to remain below LTA. The prices of most food commodities, including cerealse such as maize will remain above their LTAs due to significant decline in the local food production, a situation that will be creating severe shortage of food items. However, the government subsidy on the price of packaged maize flour, retailing at Ksh 100 is expected to bring some relief to the households in the county. On the other hand, livestock prices will likely remain below LTAs , a scenario that will lead to diminished terms of trade and consequently eroding the purchasing power of households in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Food consumption will likely deteriorate as households runs out of the existing stocks without a possibility of adequate stock replenishment due to anticipated crop failure. Low purchasing power will subject households in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones to purchase more of less preffered, less expensive and less nutritious food stuff, a scenario likely to exercebate malnutrition status. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance pest control especially in the face of outbreak of the African army worms that have the potential to cause significant crop losses in the farms. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening",
            "Baringo 2022 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2022 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received above normal off season rains which were well distributed in space and time. The Vegetation greenness as represented by the VCI depicted vegetation greenness being above normal. Status of water sources was normal with recharge level of over 80. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditios was good across the county Livestock body condition was fair to good for cattle in Pastoral and Agrop- pastoral livelihood zones . Milk production was below normal but improving across the livelihood zones Access indicators Terms of trade are very poor and below long term means but showing recovery trend. Trekking distances to water points are slightly aboce normal but on an improving trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above the long term mean Copping strategy index (CSI) is above LTA but stable compared to previous month. PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 129 80-120 VCI-3month 52.79 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No deaths Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 13.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Figure 2:Cummulative rainfall 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance Rainfall performance during the month under review was good as most parts of the county received some rains. By the end of the second dekad, the county had recorded about 129 percent of the normal rains (Figure1). The distribution in space was even while temporal distribution was fair to good. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean but with an improving trend due to the off season rains received in August (Figure 2). Figure 5: pasture condition Figure 6: browse condition Figure 3: Ward level 3M VCI 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The three month VCI in Figure 3 and 4 depicts good to above normal vegetation greeness across the county.This was attributed to by the regeneration of natural vagetation as a result of the impacts of the off season rains being experienced in the county.The current VCI value is at 52.79. Figure 4: County 3M VCI 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture pastures shown signs improvement due to the impact of off season rains being received in the county. Most of the pastures are in good conditions in the Mixed farming and Irrigated crop livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, the pastures are mainly in fair conditions (Figure 5). The pastures are likely to last for two to three months across the various livelihood zones. Browse The browse conditions have improved significantly as most of them are in good condition and this was attributed to by the impact of the off season rains (Figure 6). The currnt browse is expected to last for two to three months across the various livelihood zones in the county. Figure 7: Water Sources Figure 8: Household Trekking Distance Figure 9: Livestock Grazing Distance 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers,pans dams as well as traditional river wells (Figure 7). Most water pans and dams were above 80 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones was good. The current open water sources were expected to last for three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources declined by 11 percent from 4.4 km last month to 3.9 km by August (Figure 8). The average trekking distances in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones was four kilometres for both while in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was one kilomitre. The decline in trekking distances was attributed to by the impact of the off season rains being received n the county. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 7.4 km, a marginal decline of one percent as compared to the prevous month.(Figure 9). The trekking distances were above the LTA by 23 percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro- Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was eight, six and two kilomitres respectively. The decline in distance was attributed to by impact of the off season rains being received in the county. Figure 10. Livestock Body Condition Figure 11. Milk Production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, about 44 percent of cattle were in moderate body condition while another 26 percent were in good body condition (Figure 10). Livestock body condition is generally improving due to the impact of off season rains which have led to regeneration of forage. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist n parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production Milk production improved by 33 percent compared to the previous month whereby it now stands at an average of 1.6 litres per household per day although it is still below LTA by 13 percent (Figure 11). Production was highest in Agro -Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.3 litres while the Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 1.5 and 1.3 litres respectively . 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The crop is at different stages with the early planted maize which received rains maturing and also harvesting has started at the irrigation schemes. In the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, there was 100 percent crop failure. The early planted beans under irrigation schemes have been harvested in Baringo South sub county while Irish potatoes have been harvested in Eldama Ravine Sub County. Wheat crop has started to head in Mochongoi ward of Baringo South Sub County. There has been a minimal increase in food stocks, especially in the Irrigated crop zone and the early planted maize in the Marginal mixed and Mixed farming livelihood zones. The price of maize was between Kshs 5000-5400 across different markets with a kilogram of maize retailing between Kshs 60-Kshs 65. Projected yield for nearly all the crops will be below LTA due to the poor performance of the long rains season. Even though the county experienced good off season rains, the rains came too late when the damage on crops had already been done due to effects of moisture stress. Figure 12: Cattle Prices Figure 13: Goat Prices Figure 14: Maize Prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle increased by eight percent from Ksh 13,074 last month to Ksh 14,080 in August. The current price was below short term average (STA) as seen in figure 12. The highest prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh 19,833 with Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 13,225 and Ksh 9,500 respectively. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average goat prices increased by 12 percent from Ksh 2,186 in the previous month to Ksh 2,615 in August (Figure 13). The highest price was observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh 2,917 while the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had an average price of Ksh 2,417 and Ksh 1,750 respectively. The current price was still below STA but showing an improving trend due to the improving livestock body condition. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize declined by 12 percent from Ksh 100kg in the previous month to Ksh 86kg currently (Figure 14). The highest price was observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 98kg while the Agro -Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 85kg and Ksh 75kg respectively. The current prices were still above the STA but on a declining trend due to the limited maize harvest being experienced within the county and the neighbouring counties. Figure 15: Posho Prices Figure 16: Beans Prices Figure 17: Terms of Trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average household posho price was at Ksh 104kg, a decline of 12 percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). In the livelihood zones, the observed prices were at Ksh 114kg, Ksh 100kg and Ksh 90kg in the Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. The current prices were above the STA by 48 percent but were showing declining trend due to decrease in maize prices. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.158, an increase of two percent compared to the previous month (Figure 16). The beans retailed at an average price of Ksh 161kg, Ksh 170kg and Ksh 110kg in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. The observed prices were above the STA by 22 percent. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade increased by 27 percent to stand at 30 compared to the previous month (Figure 17). This implies that a sale of one got is able to fetch 30kg of maize compared to about 58kg in a normal year. The highest terms of trade were observed in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 39 while in the Agro- Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones, terms of trade were at 21 and 24 respectively. The terms of trade were still below STA by 92 percent although they have shown signs of improvement due to the observed decline in maize prices and the marginal increase in livestock prices. Figure 18: Milk Consumption. Figure 20. Proportion of Children at Risk of Malnutrition 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption improved by 36 percent compared to the preious month stand litreshouseholdday (Figure 18). The highest household milk consumption was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.5 litres while in other livelihood zones, milk consumption stood at an average of one litre per household per day.The current milk consumption is normal compared to the LTA. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) During the month under review, about 54, 42, and 3.7 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption score (FCS) respectively. Pastoral livelihood zone had the worst food consumption with 51 and five percent of the households having borderline and poor FCS respectively (Figure 19). There was a slight improvement in FCS in all the livelihood zones and this could be attributed to an improvement in household milk production and consumption. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review declined by five percent compared to the previous month and its now at 19 percent (Figure 20). However, the rate was still above the LTA by 23 percent. The drop could be attributed to improvement in household milk consumption and other ongoing malnutrition management programs whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. Figure 19. Food Consumption Score Figure 21. Proportion of Malnourished Children By family MUAC, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was at nine percent, a decline of 27 percent (Figure 21). Compared to LTA, the rate was still high by 34 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) declined slightly from 17 in the previous month to 16 in August. The Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and the Irrigated crop livelihood zones had 17, 24 and four Rcsi respectively (Figure 22). The most adopted strategies are reduction in the number of meal sizes, reduction in meal size portions and consuming less prefferedexpensive food especially in the Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. Figure 22. Coping Strategy Index 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is carrying out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 6.2 Non-food interventions Red Kenya Cross Distribution of Ready To Use Therapeutic Feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Livestock sector Emergency livestock offtake by the National Government through the Red Cross Society was successfully concluded whereby about 2,053 animals were slaughtered and the meat fed to the local beneficiaries. Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition SMART survey on nutrition status was done Tiaty East and West sub counties and the final analysis of the results is ongoing. With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis The county having received significant rains during the month under review, water access and availability is expected to improve significantly in the next one month as most of the water sources have received good recharge. This will lead to fecline in trecking distances to watering points for both livestock and humans and consequently improve water utilization. Forage conditions will continue to improve in the next one month as a result of the impact of the off season rains received during the month under review. Livestock body condition is therefore expected to continue recovering which wil enhance milk production. Market conditions are expected to improve whereby livestock prices will continue to improve due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. On the other hand, cereal prices are expected to decline due to the limited harvesting of maize being done in the County. Terms of trade are therefore expected to improve though they will still be below LTA. Food consumption as depicted by food consumption score is expected to improve marginally due to improvement in milk consumption and the expected cereals availability due to the ongoing food harvest. Households are expected to apply less severe coping strategies in meeting their food needs . Malnutrition cases are likely to decline marginally in the next one month as a result of improved household milk consumption as well as the ongoing nutrition intervention programs. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health- Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Establishment of pasture field to take advantage of the ongoing rainfall season. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance pest control especially in the face of outbreak of the African army worms that have the potential to cause significant crop losses in the farms. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening",
            "Baringo 2022 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2022 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alert-Worsening Biophysical Indicators The county received dismal rains during the month under review.. The Vegetation Condition Index for the county depicts normal vegetation greenness but Tiaty areas and parts of Baringo North have moderate vegetation deficit. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal (20-30). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The pasture condition is poor to fair in both quality and quantity and expected to deteririote with the dry spells being experienced. Livestock body condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range and on a declining trend. No Drought related livestock deaths were reported across ivelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade were below normal seasonal range but had shown a slight improvement. Distances to water sources for households are above the normal seasonal ranges and on an increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 18, which was above the Copping strategy index for households is still within normal ranges. LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for month Baringo LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 37.83 35-50 Of water in the water pan(Pastoral) 20-30 60-80 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) 1.84 Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 12.6 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields IncreasedFood Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance Rainfall performance was poor across the county with some pockets receiving sporadic light showers for one to two days (Figure 1). Both spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the county. Most parts of the county remained dry and cloudy during the month under review. 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term average (LTA) and and this was attributed to by the poor performance of the rains during the previous seasons (Figure 2). Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 Figure 3: Ward level 3 month VCI Figure 4:County level 3M VCI Figure 5: Pasture conditions 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month VCI for the county depicts normal vegetation greenness at 37.83. However,the VCI trend is deteriorating due to the prevailing dry conditions for the last two months. Already, nine wards are experiencing moderate drought status and they include Tirioko, Silale, Lolyamorok, Kolowa, Tangulbei, Barwesa, Saimo Soi, Mukutani and Ravine (Figure 3 and 4). Speicial focus should be given to Lolyamorok and Silale wards as the two are headed towards severe drought phase. 2.2 Field observation 2.2.1 Pasture Pasture conditions were mainly poor in Pastoral Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the Irrigted zone, pasture was in fair cindition (Figure5). Pasture conditions will likely worsen due to the prevailing dry conditions. current pasture condition below normal seasonal range.The pastures are likely to last for 1-2 months in Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. There are hardly any pastures left in the Pastoral areas and this has been compounded by presence of invasive species. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 Figure 6: Browse conditions Figure 7: Water source 2.2.2 Browse During the month under review, the browse condition was fair to poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone while in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone the browse was in fair conditions. (Figure 6). The browse was good in the irrigated livelihood zone. Following poor performance of the short rains season, the browse is expected to deteroriate and may last for two to three months in both the Pastoral, Agro- Pastoal and Irrigated livelihood zones.. 2.3 Water access and utilization 2.3.1 Water Sources The major water sources for livestock human consumption during the month under review were pandams traditional river wells (Figure 7). Most water pans dams were at 20 to 30 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and 40 to 50 percent Irrigated livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair. The current water sources expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral livelihood zone and two to three months in Agro- pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. A number of water pans have dried up in the Pastoral livelihood zone among them kapunyany and Loyeya. The water quality is poor due to congestion at the watering points. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 2.3.2 Household access and utilization There was a marginal increase in the average household trekking distance to water sources from 4.2 km in the preceding month to 4.4 km currently, translating to a five percent increase (Figure 8). The distances were slightly below LTA by six percent. The average trekking distances were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zones at 5.6km while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was one kilomitre. The increasing trekking distances was attributed to the drying up of open water sources due to poor performance of the short rains season. 2.3.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was eight kilomitres, translating to an increase of 10 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 9). The distances were above the LTA by 40 percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was 9.0, 6.4 and two kilomitres respectively. The rise in distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and water sources due to the prevailing dry conditions in the county. The distances are expected to increase following poor performance of the short rains seson (OND). Figure 9: Livestock Grazing Distance Figure 8: Trekking distances to water points Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 Figure 10: Livestock Body Condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During month under review, livestock condition cattle was mostly fair i.e neither fat nor thin (Figure livestock condition is expected to deteriorate further declining forages water sources across livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist in parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk production per household per day during the month was at one litre, translating to a decline of 23 percent as compared to the previous month. The current amount is below the long term mean by 40 percent (Figure 11). Milk production was highest in Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zonea at 1.7 litres while in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone, milk production was lowest at 0.3 litres . The milk is mainly from camels in the Pastoral areas and goats in the other livelihood zones. Milk production is expected to drop further due to declining livestock body condition. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The farmers in the Irrigated livelihood zone have already planted short term crops such as green grams, tomatoes and vegetables after harvesting the maize crop. In Agro Pastoral livelihood zone, no crop harvest took place due to total crop failure. In the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially the highland the maize has dried up in the farms ready for harvesting. Figure11: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. Figure 12: Cattle Prices The average market price for a medium-sized cattle was Ksh16,426 per head during the reporting period, translating to an increase of 12 percent in comparison to the previous month. In comparison to the short term average (STA), the price was below by 14 percent (Figure 12). The highest average prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kas 18,000 with Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 12,000 and Ksh 16,800 respectively. The increase in prices could have been triggered by increased demand for the meat during the December festive season. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. There was a marginal increase in the average price of a goat whish was at Ksh 2,635 per head, an increase of five percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13). The lowest price was observed in Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,400 while Pastoral and Irigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,600 and Ksh 3,000 respectively. The small increase in market prices was influenced by the increasing demand for meat during the December festive season. Figure 13: Goat Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by five percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a kilogram was retailing at Ksh 87kg (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 95 percent. The high maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations coulpled by increased cost of transportation driven by high fuel prices has also affected the market prices across livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) During the month under review, the average price for a kilogram of posho was at Ksh.99, an increase of four percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 90 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to scarcity of maize commodity and high fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 102 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the least average price of Ksh.80. Figure 14: Maize Prices Figure 15: Posho Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased marginally by seven percent from Ksh 152 in the previous month to 162 in December (Figure 16). The current price was above the STA by 37 percent. The Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.169 and Ksh 160 respectively while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.120. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade were at 34, implying that a sale of one goat was fetching 34kg of maize which was an increase of 14 percent in relation to the previous month (Figure 17) and this could be attributed to improved livestock prices during the month under review. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 48 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 43 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 29. The overall security situation in the Pastoral areas has improved over the last one month thus facilitating the reopening of the local markets and therefore leading to livestock price improvement. Figure 16: Beans Prices Figure 9. Terms of Trade Figure 17: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption Figure 18: Milk consumption The average household milk consumption per day was at 0.9 litres, a decrease of 25 percent compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long term average by 36 percent (Figure 18). Milk consumption was highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 1.7 litres while Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral zones had an average consumption rate of 1.3 and 0.3 litres respectively. The declining milk consumption is attributed to reduced milk production as a result of deteriorating livestock body condition and increasing trekking dostances to pasture fields across the county. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) The average food consumption score was at 36, which was relatively stable compared to the previous month. About 49,38 and 13 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. About 44 and 17 percent of the sampled households in the Pastoral livelihood zone had borderline and poor food consumption scores respectively while 38 percent of the sampled households in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had borderline food consumption (Figure 19). The deterioration of food consumption score is an indication of more households experiencing food consumption gaps mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. Figure 19: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was at 18 percent which is stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 20). However, the current rate is still above the LTA by 65 percent. The deteroriating health status of the under fives was contributed by the food consumption gaps being experienced at the households and decrease in household milk consumption. However, the curent rate were still above the LTA . The sentinel sites with increased cases of malnutrition are Komolion, Akoret, Kiserian, Maron, Kapenguria( Ngoron) and Kollowa. However with the ongoing nutrition interventions through the outreach programs, the nutrition status is expected to remain stable across the county. 5.3.2 Health There were no reported cases of disease outbreak other than sporadic cases of URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average county reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was stable at 16 in comparison to the previous month. The highest rCSI was in the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at 24.7 while the Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones had an average rCSI of 17.7 and 5.5 respectively (Figure 21). The most adopted strategies were reduction in the number of meal times, reduction in meal size portions and consuming less prefferedexpensive food especially in the Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. Figure20: Proportion of Children at Risk of Malnutrition Figure 21: Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions There was no relief food issued in the county during the month under review. World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three onths in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organisation is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 I n three tranches. This is a onne off program that is expected to last for about four months. Kenya Red Cross About 20 schools across various sub counties were targeted with food relief Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Nutrition Early Action for Scalable Response in Emergencies project which is being supported by UNICEF, is being implemented in two sub counties namely Tiaty West and Tiaty East . It supports 20 hard to reach sites with integrated medical outreaches. Livestock sector Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm during the month under review. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is espected to deteriorate drastically in the next one month following the dismal performance of the short rains. Trekking distances to watering points are therefore expected to rise significantly especially in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. Forage conditions will continue to deteriorate further due to increasing moisture stress. This will cause a deterioration in livestock body condition leading to reduced livestock productivity especially in Pastorl and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Increased livestock migration is likely to be witnessed in some pockets of the county especially in Pastoral areas. Reduction in milk production is also expected in the next one month due to the expected decline in forage and water availability. Therefore, the county is likely to experience resource based conflict in the next one month as Pastoral communities are likely to start moving their animals in search of pastures and water. Market conditions are likely to continue being affected by ongoing security operations in Tiaty areas as well as the entire Kerio valley region as traders are likely to keep off . Cereal prices are likely to remain above LTA while livestock prices will remain low. Terms of trade will therefore remain poor especially in Pastoral areas and therefore affecting household food access. Food consumption as depicted by food consumption score will remain poor in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones as more households are likely to shift to borderline and poor FCS bands. Households are expected to continue applying more crisis coping strategies in meeting their food consumption gaps and therefore affecting nutrition status of household members. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Activation of drought contingency plans for drought response water interventions in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones should be done. Provision of water treatment chemicals at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed in strategic institutions for water delivery during water trucking, rain water harvesting upon onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support drought response coordination meetings Train more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening and refferals in identified hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Advocate for social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Activation of drought contingency plans for drought response livestock interventions in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones should be done. Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities",
            "Baringo 2022 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2022 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Alarm-Worsening Biophysical Indicators The county experienced mostly dry spells during the month under review which is normal The Vegetation Condition Index is above normal greenness across the county.. The Water levels in most water sources are normal at (40-60). Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The pasture condition is poor to fair in both quality and quantity and expected to deteririote with the dryspell being experienced. Livestock body condition is good to fair in all livelihood zones. Milk production is slightly below the normal seasonal range and on a decreasing trend. No Drought related livestock deaths were reported in all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are currently below normal seasonal range and on a worsening trend. Distances to water sources for households are above the normal seasonal range. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was 16.51, which was above the LTA. Copping strategy index for households is still within normal range. LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value for the month LTA-Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 72.67 35-50 Of water in the water pan 40-60 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Production HHMonth) 1.86 Livestock deaths (for drought) No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 16.51 12.9 Milk Consumption (Ltr) 16.04 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 2: Cummulative rainfall 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.1.1 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1:Rainfall perfomance Rainfall performance during the month under review was poor as the county experienced dry spells across the livelihoods. The onset of the short rains season was late as it ought to have started by the third dekad of October (Figure 1). 1.1.2 Cummulative rainfall The cumulative amount of rainfall received by the second dekad of the month under review was below the long term mean (LTA) and this was attributed to poor performance of rains during the previous seasons (Figure 2). Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 3. Pasture Condition Figure 4. Browse Condition Figure 3: Ward level 3M VCI Figure 4: County 3M VCI 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month VCI in Figure 3 and 4 depicts above normal vegetation greeness across the county, translating to an average of 72.67.This was attributed to by the regeneration of natural vagetation as a result of the impacts of the off season rains that were experienced in the county. Field observation Pasture The pasture condition was fair to poor in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while good to fair in the Irrigated livelihood zone. (Figure 5). The status is likely to worsen due to the prevailing dry conditions. The current conditions were below the normal seasonal range.The pastures are expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in the Irrigated livelihood zone. Invasive species have almost taken over in Kolowa, Tirioko and Robko wards leading to the disappearance of pasture species that are palatable to livestock. Browse During the reporting period under review the browse condition was in fair to good conditions across all livelihood zones (Figure 6). With the anticipation of short rains the browse condition may improve though this may depend on the quality of the rains to be received. The browse may last for four months in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones and upto five months in the Irrigated livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 5.Water Sources Figure 6.Household Water Distance Figure 7.Livestock Grazing Distance 2.2.1 Source Water pans, dams and traditional river wells were the major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones (Figure 7). Most water pans dams were at 40 to 50 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and 50 to 60 percent in the Irrigated livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization There was an increase of 17 percent in the average household trekking distance to water sources from 3.5km the preceding month to 4.1 km currently (Figure 8). The distances were above LTA by 10 percent. The average trekking distances were highest in the Pastoral livelihood zones at 5.4km while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the average trekking distance was one kilomitre. The increasing trekking distances was attributed to the drying up of open water sources due to delayed onset of the short rains. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was 6.8 km, an increase of 15 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 9). The distances were above the LTA by 19 percent. The average return distance for Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones was 7.6, 6.0 and two kilomitres respectively. The rise in distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and water due to the prevailing dry spell conditions.The distances are expected to surge with the anticipated poor performance of the short rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 8. Livestock Body Condition Figure 9. Milk Production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition During the month under review, the livestock body condition for cattle was mostly moderate, neither fat nor thin (Figure 10). However in some pockets of the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone the body condition was borderline whereby foreribs were not visible due to the dry spells being witnessed in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Endemic cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) exist in parts of Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk production per household per day during the month was at 1.6 litres. This was a drop of six percent in comparison to the previous month. The current amount is below the long term mean by 14 percent (Figure 11). Production was highest in Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.5 litres while the Irrigated and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had 2.1 and 0.4 litres respectively . The milk is mainly from camels in the Pastoral and goats in the other livelihood zones. Milk production is likely to drop further due to expected forage deterioration if the rains fail. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The farmers in the Irrigated livelihood zone have already planted short term crops such as green grams, tomatoes and vegetables after harvesting the maize crop. While in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, there was total crop failure thus the farmers have prepared their farms in anticipation of the short rains. In the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially the highland the maize have dried up in the farms ready for harvesting. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 10. Cattle Prices Figure 12.Maize Prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average market price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh14,889 during the reporting month. The price decreased marginally as compared to the previous month by four percent. In relation to the Short Term average (STA) the price was below by 20 percent (Figure 12). The highest average prices were in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kas 21,667 Agro-Pastoral Pastoral livelihood zones recording Ksh 15,000 and Ksh 13,905 respectively. The low prices are due to disruption of livestock markets in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to the ongoing security operations. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. There was a marginal decrease in the average price of a goat which stood at Ksh 2,680 per head as compared to the previous month. The price is below STA by 11 percent (Figure 13). The lowest price was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,400 while Pastoral and Irigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,590 and Ksh 3,333 respectively. The low prices are attributed to the disruption of major livestock markets especially in Pastoral areas. This has also led to low volumes of goats being traded in the local markets. Figure 11. Goat Prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by six percent from Ksh.91 to Ksh 96 currently. (Figure 14). The prices were above the short-term average of Ksh. 43 at a similar time of the year by 125 percent. The high maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring countiesof West pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supply. Increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices has also affected the prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.103 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.55 per kg. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 13. Posho Prices Figure 14. Beans Prices Figure 15. Terms of Trade 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) During the month of October the average price for a kilogram of posho was at Ksh112, an increase of three percent compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 122 percent. The above normal prices are attributed to scarcity of maize commodity and high fuel prices across all livelihood zones. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 120 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had the least average price of Ksh.70. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans increased by 10 percent in comparison to the previous month to retail at Kshs.159 (Figure 16). The current price was above the STA by 37 percent. The Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.180 and Ksh 162 respectively while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.120. The general high prices is attributed to scarcity of the commodity across the county due to poor crop production. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade were at 28, a drop of four percent in relation to the previous month , implying that a sale of one goat is fetching 28kg of maize (Figure 17). The poor terms of trade was attributed to increased maize prices and interruption of livestock markets in Tiaty. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 59 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 61 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 25. The disruption of livestock markets and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones are some of the factors contributing to the worsening of the terms of trade. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 16. Milk Consumption Figure 17. Food Consumption Score Figure 18.Proportion of Children at Risk of Malnutrition 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption per day was at 1.5 litres, a decrease of six percent compared previous month. current consumption was below the long term average by six percent (Figure 18). Milk consumption was highest in Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones at an average of 2.3 and 2.1 litres respectively while in the Agro-pastoral livevilihood zone, milk consumption was less than one litre . The declining milk consumption is attributed to reduced milk production at the household level. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) The average food consumption score was at 36.7, the situation has worsened as compared to the previous month. About 52.8, 39, and 8.2 percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores respectively. Pastoral livelihood zone had the worst food consumption with 45.4 and 10.6 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS respectively followed by Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone with 30 percent of the sampled households having borderline FCS (Figure 19). The deterioration in FCS across the livelihood zones was attributed to households having inadequite and poor quality food stuff being consumed by household members. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was stable at 16.5 percent, a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month (Figure 20). The stability was attributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions whereby all IMAM health fascilities are being supported by WFP and County Government with therapeutic products. However, the curent rate were still above the LTA by 28 percent, a situation that was being contributed by scarcity of food at household level especially in the Pastoral areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 Figure 19. Proportion of Malnourished by Family MUAC Figure 20. Coping Strategy Index By family MUAC, the proportion of severe acute malnutrition (SAM), moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 0.4, 8.5 and 8.9 percent respectively (Figure comparison to the previous month the GAM rates increased by 11.3 percent. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were URTI, malaria and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in all livelihood zones. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was at 16.04, which was an increase as compared to the previous month at 15.77. The Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones had 16.4, 26.6 and 3.9 rCSI respectively (Figure 22). The most adopted strategies were reduction in the number of meal sizes, reduction in meal size portions and consuming less prefferedexpensive especially Pastoral areas that are charecterised by eroded purchasing power. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 1,200 bags (50kg) of rice, 2,160 bags (50kg) and 600 cartons of corn beef for distribution to the vulnerable households affected by drought in the county. World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three onths in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organisation is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 I n three tranches. This is a onne off program that is expected to last for about four months. Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Kenya Red Cross Distribution of food items 100kg of Rice, 80k of beans and 20 Litres cooking oil to Embosos secondary who are currently hosted at Kaptombes primary after been displacement with insecurity issues in Arabal. Nutrition Early Action for Scalable Response in Emergencies project which is being supported by UNICEF, is being implemented in two sub counties namely Tiaty West and Tiaty East . It supports 20 hard to reach sites with integrated medical outreaches. Construction of Concrete water tank and piping done in Kaburgei and the training of its water management committee was done. Through the Skybird WASH Micro Program, training of artisans and KRCS volunteers on construction of innovative latrines using interlocking soil blocks has taken place in Baringo South. Livestock sector Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity The county remained relatively calm as the Government is carryng out security operations to rid out banditry. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is likely to start deteriorating in the next one month due to the prevailing dry conditions. The short rains season is most likely to perform dismally and therefore causing an increase in trecking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock. Forage conditions are likely to start deteriorating due to water stress. This will likely cause a deterioration in livestock body condition leading to reduced livestock productivity especially in Pastorl and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Increased livestock migration is likely to be witnessed if the short rains performs dismally. Market conditions are likely to continue being affected by ongoing security operations in Tiaty areas as traders are likely to keep off . Cereal prices are likely to remain above LTA while livestock prices will remain low. Terms of trade will therefore remain poor especially in Pastoral areas and therefore affecting household food access. Food consumption as depicted by food consumption score will remain poor in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones as household will likely continue consuming food that is poor in diversity and nutrients. Households are expected to start applying more crisis coping strategies in meeting their food requirements and therefore affecting nutrition status of household members. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2022 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed for some institutions for rain water harvesting and also for storage. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support coordination meetings Trained more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening in hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health. Promote community resilience interventions through organize support groups 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Pasture establishment and conservation should be enhanced across all livelihood zones Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Enhance asset creation for households especially Farm ponds and water pans for food production especially Kitchen Gardening Promote kitchen gardening initiatives that can take advantage of the anticipated depressed short rains season"
        },
        "DEWS_2023": {
            "Baringo 2023 November EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for November 2023 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators The county received moderate to heavy rains during the month under review The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI is above normal The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 80-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) . Production indicators: The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to good Milk production was normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were improving Distances to water sources for households were normal Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly high and above the long term mean. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 60.23 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 80-100 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.72 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 13.6 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the county experienced moderate to heavy rains during the first two dekads of November but there was a notable decline in rainfall intensity towards the last week of the month whereby dry spells were observed. The spatial distribution was even across the livelihood zones while temporal distribution was good (Figure 1). The amount of the rains was above the long-term average (LTA) but still within the seasonal range (Figure 2). Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1:Rainfall amount and distribution in time Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 2: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the vegetation condition index was above normal for all the sub counties apart from Mogotio sub county which had normal vegetation greenness (Figure 4 and 5). The improvement in vegetation condition was contributed to by the enhanced rains that the county has been receiving for the last three months. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pasture condition during the reporting month was fair in Pastoral livelihood zones while in the Irrigated and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the pastures were in good condition. The current pasture condition was attributed to the rains being received in the county. The current pasture condition was normal when compared to a typical year and were likely to last for four and five months in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Browse The browse condition was good both in quantity and quality across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was normal when compared to a typical year. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood Figure 4: County VCI Figure 4:Ward level VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources Traditional river wells, rivers and water pans were the major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 100 percent full while river flows were good. The current open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization There was a decrease of 13 percent in the average household trekking distance to water sources at 2.6 km from three kilometres recorded in the previous month (Figure 6). The current distances were below the LTA by 34 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest distance of 2.9 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to the ongoing recharge of water sources. Figure 7: State of water sources Water sources -November 2023 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Km Household water distances - November 2023 Figure 6: Trekking distances to water points Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was 6.1km, a marginal decrease of 12 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 6.8 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances were below the LTA by nine percent. The decreasing trend in return distances was attributed to the ongoing regeneration of pastures and recharge of livestock water sources. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area- November 2023 Figure 7: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition There general improvement in the livestock body condition for all the livestock species across the livelihood zones. In the Pastoral and some parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, livestock condition for cattle was fair (BCS3) while in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, body condition was good (BCS4). current livestock body condition was prompted by availability of good quality forage and decreased distances watering points across the livelihood zones. observed trend will likely continue to persist due to improving forage and water availability. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP, LSD, FMD, Red Water, PPR, Goat and sheep pox, Heart water, Mange, rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO, SHA and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production Livestock body condition-Cattle BCS1-Very poor BCS2-Poor BCS3-Fair BCS4-Good Figure 8: Livestock body condition Household milk production- November 2023 Figure 9: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.8 litres, which was an increase of 13 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 9). The production was slightly above the long-term average by five percent but still falling within the seasonal range and this trend was attributed to the improved livestock body condition for cattle and goats. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest production of 2.6 litres while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least production of 1.4 litres. Milk production trend will continue improving due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops In the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, farmers were harvesting green grams and other short-term crops. Most farmers were also able to plant tomatoes, millet and sorghum crops in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.18,241, which was an increase of two percent in comparison to the previous month at Kshs. 17,852. The Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest prices of Ksh.24,667 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least price of Ksh.15,667 (Figure 10). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by eight percent but still was within the seasonal range. The increase in prices was due to the improving livestock body condition across livelihood zones, a trend that is expected to be observed in the coming months. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat increased by eight percent in comparison to the previous month, selling at Kshs 3,820. The price was above the STA by 39 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs 4,167 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,533. The upward trend in prices was attributed to improving body condition in the county as well as the ongoing festivities among the Pastoral communities. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - November 2023 lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices in the county was at Kshs. 76kg, which was a decrease in comparison to the previous month at Kshs. 82 (Figure 12). The current prices were higher than the short-term average at this time of the year by 36 percent and were still lying outside the seasonal range. The decreasing maize prices were attributed to harvesting of maize at household level in the Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones as well as in the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 80 per kg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.70 per kg. Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - November 2023 Upper llimit Figure 11: Goat prices 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - November 2023 Figure 12: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Kshs 90kg compared to the previous month at Kshs 95kg (Figure 13). The decrease in prices was attributed to the harvesting season in the county and neighbouring counties. The price was above the short-term average by 36 percent and lying outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 100 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 80kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.182 and this was stable in comparison to the previous month. The current prices were above the short-term average by 38 percent and falling outside seasonal range (Figure livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices Ksh.185kg while the Irrigated cropping livelihood recorded the least prices of Ksh.170kg. The high prices were attributed to the scarcity of the commodity as the crop did not perform well in the previous seasons. Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - November 2023 Lower limit Figure 13: Posho prices Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - November 2023 Figure 14: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, a farmer could by 50 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was a minimal improvement compared to the previous month where the terms of trade were at 43 (Figure 15). The current terms of trade were below the short-term mean by nine percent but were found within the seasonal range. The improving trend in terms of trade was attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 59.5 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had least 32.9. purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to continue decreasing due to the ongoing harvesting in the country. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average household milk consumption improved by 15 percent in comparison to the previous month to stand at 1.5 litres. The consumption rate was normal compared to LTA with the highest rate being observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 2.1 litres while the lowest consumption rate was in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at one litre. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - November 2023 Figure 15: Terms of trade Household milk consumption -November 2023 Figure 16: Milk consumption Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 41.1 which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 39.3. In terms of proportions, about 2.6, 37.5 and 59.9 percent of the households across the all livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. Pastoral, Irrigated cropping and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones had 38.5, 49.8 and 53.5 average consumption scores respectively. About three percent of the households in the Pastoral livelihood zone were reported to be having poor food consumption score though the numbers in this category have been reducing for the last three months (Figure 17). 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 18 percent, which was almost stable in comparison to the previous month (Figure 18). The current proportion was above the long term mean by 30 percent and was also falling outside the seasonal range. The improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty west and Baringo south sub counties as well as the improved food security situation at the household level. The trend was expected to continue being observed due to the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county Figure 20: proportion of children at risk of malnutrition 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 September October November Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 17: Food consumption Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition - November 2023 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition status by MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported included Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households are taking untreated water. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index current average coping strategy index was at 13.13, a marginal decline when compared previous month. Households Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17.6 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 13.9 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2 (Figure 19). Generally, there was a reduction in adoption of coping strategies across all livelihood zones. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was no food relief distribution in the county during the month under review. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household is receiving Kshs 11,200 and the third cycle has been done. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three trunches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index- November 2023 Figure 19: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Kshs 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e. FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO. Water sector Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. They are also carrying out continuous hygiene and sanitation promotion within the villages that are surrounding the boreholes. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. Coordination The County government of Baringo, with the support of UNICEF, NDMA, and Red Cross did carry out a review of the flood contingency plan, a document that will guide county government and development partners on emergency operations in case of floods happening in the county. The document was validated by the CSG members in a meeting held on 28th of November 2023. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Cases of banditry attacks were reported in Saimo Soi ward of Baringo North sub county as well as parts of Baringo South sub county, leading to tension with a limited number of livestock being stolen. A multi- Agency security team is on the ground in a bid to restore calm. 7.2 Food security prognosis The ongoing rains will significantly enhance water access and availability across all the livelihood zones, a scenario that will result in further reduction in trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock. The rains are expected to have a positive impact on forage recovery thus leading to enhanced livestock feed availability and consequently cause further improvement in livestock body condition. Milk production is therefore expected to improve at the household level to normal levels which will have significant impact on milk consumption at the household level. Cereal prices are expected to remain stable for the next one month while prices of pulses may drop slightly due to improved supplies from other counties that are currently harvesting the crop. On the other hand, livestock prices are likely to improve due to the ongoing recovery in livestock body condition, a scenario that will lead to improvement in terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin November 2023 especially in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The December festive activities will create more demand for goats hence a price spike for goats is likely to happen. Enhanced availability of cereals, pulses, leafy vegetables and milk is expected to have a positive impact on nutrition status of household members in the next one month and therefore the county is expected to record less cases of malnutrition. However, there may be sporadic cases of waterborne diseases especially in areas with poor latrine coverage since water surface run off is likely to contaminate unprotected water sources. Furthermore, upsurge in malaria and flue cases may be witnessed due to increased breeding places for mosquitos and the favourable weather for the spread of flu viruses. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Surveillance of critical water facilities to be enhanced so that they can be protected in case of flooding incidents Advice communities and institutions to scale up rain water harvesting initiatives by putting in place appropriate facilities such as water tanks for storage of water. This include rehabilitation of harvesting facilities such as gutters, catchment roofs and tanks. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Pre-positioning of essential drugs and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) through procurement and prepositioning of essential drugs to sub counties at risk, transfer of essential medical drugs from main facilities to risk areas, procurement of ITNs and distribution to risk areas 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Ring vaccination against, CCPP, LSD, FMD and PPR should be enhanced in mapped out hot spots which include Mogotio, Marigat, Barwessa, Bartabwa, Saimo Soi, Kabarnet, Kolloa, Loyamorok, Tirioko, Ribkwo KorossiTangulbei and Churo Amaya wards. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. Assist farmers to access various assorted seedlings for fruit trees for planting. Farmers are also advised to take advantage of the rains by planting short term maturing plants such as vegetables. Enhanced soil and conservation activities especially in areas that are prone to erosion given that the season is likely to be associated with above normal rains. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Mapping of potential flood hot spots and spearhead development of key sector messages to the vulnerable populations.",
            "Baringo 2023 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2023 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received moderate rains during the month which were normal in the amount received. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was above normal greenness The Water levels in most water sources are at 60-70 of their capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is mostly fair to good in all livelihood zones for all livestock species Milk production was slightly below the long term average Cases of drought related livestock mortality were not reported. Access indicators Terms of trade were declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households were below long term mean Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was above the long term mean but stable. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score which was stable. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 60-70 70-90 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 21.8 19.3 14.55 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweedin Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Temporal rainfall distribution 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance (Amount) During the month under review, rainfall performance was depressed during the first two decads but substantial amount was received during the third dekad of the month, signifying the onset of the June-July-August season (JJA), which is a significant season in the county (Figure 1). Spatial distribution was fair with most wards receiving 15-45mm of rains though Tirioko, Silale, Bartabwa and Barwessa wards had hardly any rains during the month under review (Figure 2).The amount of rains recived were within the normal seasonal range (Figure Figure 3: Spatial rainfall distribution Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 2: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Figure 4: Three month VCI-Baringo county 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index was above normal greenness during the month under review in most of the wards other than Loyamorok, Emining and Kisanana which had normal vegetation greenness while Silale ward had moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 4). The improvement in vegetation greenness could be attributed to the cumulative impacts of the long rains season. 2.2 Field observations Pasture During the reporting month the pastures in all livelihood zones were mostly in good condition although there were some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone ( Tiaty areas) whose pastures were in fair condition. The improvement in pasture conditions was as a result fairly good rainfall performance during the long rains season.The pastures were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated livelihood zone. Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly good both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones apart from the few pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone in Tirioko ward where the browse has not regenerated well. In comparison to a normal year the Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Figure 5: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household Water Distances in- June 2023 Figure 6: Trekking household distances current condition is slightly below normal at this time of the year in all livelihood zones.The available browse is expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2 .3 Water resources 2.3.1 Water Source The major water sources for both livestock human consumption across livelihood zones were water pans, traditional river wells and rivers (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 70 percent of their capacity though in the Pastoral livelihood zone some water pans were 20 to 30 percent of their normal capacity due to siltation challenges. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair, which was normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources is expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.3.2 Household access and Utilization Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.6 Km, an increase of three percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 6). The distances were below the LTA by 19 percent but within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.2 Km. The increase in distances was attributed to poor performance of the rains during the previous month and the first two dekads of the current month. 2.3.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points increased by 16 percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 6.7 Km (Figure 7) and they were below the LTA by 11 percent but still within the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 7.8 Km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The increase in return distances were attributed to the poor regeneration pf pastures in most parts of Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return Distance from Grazing areas: June2023 Figure 7: Grazing distances Livestock Body condition-June 2023 BCS 1- Very poor BCS 2- Poor BCS 3- Fair BCS 4- Good BCS 5- Very good Figure 8: Livestock body condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Household Milk Production- June 2023 Figure 9: Milk production The livestock body condition as depicted by body condition score (BCS) for cattle in the Pastoral and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones ranged from fair to good while in the Irrigated livelihood zone, the body condition was mostly good (Figure 8). The recovery in the body condition was occasioned by the improved forage conditions in the county as well as water access and availability and the trend is likely to continue due to the JJA rains being received. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP, LSD, Red Water, PPR, Goat and sheep pox, Heart water and ECF. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 1.3 litres, a decline of 13 pecent in comparison to the privious month (Figure 9). The current milk production per household was below the long term average by four percent but within the seasonal range.The decrease was contributed by poor regeneration of pastures which affected milk production from the cattle. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average production of 1.8 litres while Irrigated cropping zone had the least at less than a litre. With the onset of the JJA season, milk production is likely to improve. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The condition of the maize crop mostly in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was poor due to the poor performance of the rains during the month of May and June.The rains ceased when the crop was at its most critical stage of grain filling hence most of the farmers are highly unlikely to realize any maize harvest. Most of the drought tolefant crops such as green grams and millet did fairly well and harvesting is ongoing. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - June 2023 Upper llimit Figure 11: Goat price Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - June 2023 lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle price 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.15,796, an increase of four percent in relation to the previous month (Figure 10) and this was attributed to improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.20,667 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The prices were within the seasonal range and were expected to appriciate further due to the improving livestock body condition as a result of the ongoing rains. However, in terms of the volumes of animals being traded, there were fewer animals being brought to the markets and the most affected areas were the feeder markets found in Tiaty East and West sub counties. This was being contributed to by insecurity challenges where both farmes and traders were apprehensive of approaching the markets. The affected markets include Tangulbei, Kollowa, Loruk among others. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 The average price of a medium sized goat decreased slightly by two percent compared to the previous month and is currently at Ksh.2,869 (Figure 11). The price was above the short term average (STA) by10 percent but were still within the seasonal range . The price was highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,867 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,800. The upward trend in prices was attributed to improving body conditions in the county. 4.2. Crop prices 4.2.1Maize There was an increase of nine percent in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month and is currently at an average of Ksh 109kg (Figure 12). The current prices were extremely higher than the STA at this time of the year by 77 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households were depending on retailers for the maize which was being sourced from the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 111 per kg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.90 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Ksh 123kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 113.4kg (Figure 13), translaring to an increase of eight percent. The increase in prices was attributed to high fuel prices, diminished stocks at household level and increased maize prices in all livelihood zones. The price was above the STA by 71 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 130kg while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 100kg. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - June 2023 Figure 12: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - June 2023 Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - June 2023 Lower limit Figure 13: Posho prices 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.224 (Figure 14), and this was an increase of 11 percent in comparison to the previous month and was above the STA by 68 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.229 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.180. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. Figure 14: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in - June 2023 Figure 15: Terms of trade 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 26.4 which was a drop in comparison to the previous month by 10 percent (Figure 15) and this was caused by the increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the LTA by 42 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 43 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 16.4. The purchasing power for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral households was expected to continue declining as the maize prices are anticipated to continue increasing. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Household Milk Consumption -June 2023 Figure 16: Milk consumption 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Food Consumption Score : June 2023 Figure 17: Food consumption score 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.1 litre and this was a decrease of 15 percent as compared to the previous month and was above the LTA by 17 percent but still falling within the seasonal range (Figure 16).The decline in consumption was caused by reduction in milk production across the livelihoods. Milk consumption was highest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.4 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at less than a litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county has an acceptable food consumption score of 38 which was stable compared to the previous month. A proportion of 6.4, 45.3 and 48.3 percent of the sampled households across the all livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, about 8.0 and 57 percent of Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition: June 2023 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition status the sampled households had poor and borderline food consumption score respectively as shown in Figure 17. The consumption is on an improving trend as more households were shifting towards borderline and acceptable bands especially in Pastoral livelihood zone and this was attributed to by milk availability and leafy vegetables at the household. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of sampled children who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 22 percent and this was stable compared to the previous month though this was still above LTA by 25 percent and falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 18). The relative stability in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was attributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty west and Baringo south as well as improved milk consumption at the household level. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported include Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households are taking untreated water. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South, North,Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 Coping Strategy Index: June 2023 Figure 19: CSI 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) The current average coping strategy index was at 14.5 and this was a slight deterioration compared to the previous month. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17 followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone at 15.7 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.9 (Figure 19). Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Through the office of the County Comissioner, the County received 6,720 bags of rice (50kg) and 3,360 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution to the vulnerable populations in all the sub counties except Ravine. Kenya Red cross society distributed relief food to 2,000 households in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Kolowa, Loyamorok, Silale. 2000 food hampers were distributed with assorted food stuff that comprised of uji mix, maize flour, green grams, rice, cooking fat and salt. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household will receive KSh 11,200. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. The program runs from March to August 2023. 2,778 households targeted under the 1st phase received 11,200 during the month (totaling to KSh. 31,113,600) while the 2,050 are still on pipeline. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor and Endao sub locations. Once recruitment is accomplished then each household will receive KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches of KSh. 20,000, 45,000, 45,000. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward). The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million . Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and FAO. Water sector NDMA is undertaking desilting of one water pan for the DRR Kamar community in Mogotio sub county. UNICEF in collaboration with the county government ia undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs ) have also been recieved and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. In addition SMART survey was also done in the listed areas during the month. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio) Enviroment The department is undertaking participatory climate risk assessment for the 30 wards under the FLOCCA (facilitating locally led climate actions). Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county was relatively calm during the month under review as there were no major insecurity incidents that were reported. However, there have been some tension in Loruk centre especially during the market days due to frequent banditry attacks that occasionally do disrupt market operations. 7.2 Migration Most of the animals were trooping back to their usual wet sesonal grazing areas following a recovery in forage conditions. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the JJA season is most likely to enhance recharge of water sources, thereby improving water access and availability across the county.This will result in reduced trekking distances to water sources for both humans and livestock. Water consumption rate will also improve further while incidents of water contamination will decline due to reduction in congestion at the watering points. Water quality is also expected to improve due to increased water volumes at the sources, a scenario that will make the water to have less concentrates that would have otherwise polluted it. The quality and quantity of forage resources is expected to improve further in the next one month due to the impact of the JJA rains. Coupled by improved water availability for livestock, livestock body condition is expected to improve further for all the livestock species across the county hence resulting in improved livestock productivity in terms of milk availability and live carcass weight. The ongoing crop harvest mostly the drought tolerant ones will stabilise food availability at the household level and therefore minimise food consumption gaps and consequently reducing demand pressure in the local markets thus stabilizing the prices. Availability of leafy vagetables is also expected to be in plenty hence improving the nutrition status of the household members. With the expected improvement of livestock body condition, livestock prices are expected to pick up progressively thus improving income sources for the Pastoral households while cereal prices are expected to remain stable hence resulting in improved terms of trade for the pastoral households. Milk consumption at the household level is expected to improve as a result of improved milk production while dietary diversity will improve due to availability of milk, leafy vagetables and some cereals.The nutrition status of household members is therefore expected to remain stable for the next one month. Furthermore, households are expected to apply less consumption based coping strategies due to the expected reduction in consumption gaps in the next one month. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2023 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Support livelihood activities such as pasture establishment and conservation in order to enhnce forage availability. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post harvest management measures in order to minimize post harvest crop loses. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought prepairedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the the local capacity in addressing drought hazard.",
            "Baringo 2023 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EW Bulletin October 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2023 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received moderate to heavy rains The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was above normal across all sub counties The Water levels in most open water sources were within normal at over 70 full. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production Indicators: The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production was slightly below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No drought related livestock death cases were reported. Access Indicators Terms of trade were improving but still below the long term mean. Distances to water sources for households was declining across the county. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was high and above long term mean but on a declining trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 105 80-120 VCI-3month 52.07 35-50 of water in the water pan 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.72 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 18.44 13.6 13.52 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, moderate to heavy rains were received across the county, with the high land areas receiving an average of over 70 mm of rains while the rest of the county received 13-30 mm of rains (Figure 1). Most of the rains were received in second and third dekad of the month as shown in figure two and that the total amount of the rains received in the month under review were within the long-term average (LTA) and the seasonal range (Figure 3). The rains were evenly distributed across all the livelihood zones in the county. Figure 2: Spatial distribution 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec 2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Temporal distribution Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 3:Rainfall trend 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three-month vegetation condition index for the county was above normal at 52.07, which was an indication of vegetation improvement compared to last months VCI that was normal (Figure 4). The trend is expected to improve further due to the ongoing rains in the county. Most of the wards had registered normal to above normal vegetation greenness apart from Silale and Loyamorock wards which had moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 5). 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pasture conditions during the reporting month were fair in Pastoral livelihood zone although there were some pockets with poor pastures especially in Tirioko and Silale wards. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones the pastures were in fair to good conditions and this was attributed to the rains being received in the county. The pastures were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral livelihood zone, while in the Irrigated cropping and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the pastures were most likely to last for five months. Browse The browse condition was mostly good both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones apart from some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone and specifically in Tirioko ward where the browse has not regenerated fully. In comparison to a normal year the current condition was slightly below normal at this time of the year across livelihood zones. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 5: County VCI Figure 4: Ward level VCI 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources Water pans, rivers and traditional river wells were the major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones (Figure 6) and most water pans and dams were at 70 to 100 percent full. The current open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across the livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year 2.2.2 Household access and utilization Main water Sources -October 2023 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 6: Main water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Km Household water distances- October 2023 Figure 7:Trekking distances Baringo County Drought EW Bulletin October 2023 The average trekking distances from households to watering points was three kilometres, a decline of 17 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 7). The current distances were below the LTA by 18 percent but still within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 3.6 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to recharge of water sources and regeneration of pastures, which was associated with the ongoing rains. 2.2.2 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was at 6.8 km, a marginal decrease of three percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 8). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 7.6 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances were above the LTA by 12 percent and still falling outside the seasonal range, a factor that was attributed to slow regeneration of pastures particularly in the Pastoral areas as well as in the Agro-pastoral areas which were being affected by insecurity challenges. The decreasing trend in return distances were attributed to the regeneration of pastures and recharge of most of the watering points across all livelihood zones. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing areas to watering points: October 2023 Figure 8: Grazing distances 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition There was a general improvement in the livestock body condition for cattle across all livelihood zones (Figure 9), with the Pastoral livelihood zone and parts of Agro Pastoral livelihood zone having fair to good body condition (BCS 3-4) while in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, cattle were mainly in good body condition (BCS 4). The rest of the livestock species were in good body condition across the livelihood zones. The current livestock body condition was prompted by the continued improvement in forage conditions as well as improved water access and availability and this trend is expected to continue due to the ongoing rains across the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP, LSD, FMD, Red Water, PPR, Goat and sheep pox, Heart water, Mange, rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO, SHA and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.6 litres, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 10). Despite the increase, the current milk production was still below the long-term average by seven percent but still within the seasonal range. The improving trend in milk production was attributed by the improving livestock body condition as a result of regeneration of pastures. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest production at 2.2 litres while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least production at 0.9 litres. Milk production was anticipated to increase further due to the continued improvement in livestock body condition. 0 15 Livestock body condition for cattle-October 2023 BCS1-Very poor BCS2-Poor BCS3-Fair BCS4-Good BCS5-Very good Figure 9: Livestock body condition 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Harvesting of the maize crops was completed in the county while in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, farmers have started harvesting green grams. Planting of tomatoes and other horticultural crops was going on in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone while in the Agro-pastoral zone, farmers have planted millet and sorghum. Household milk production- October 2023 Figure 10: Milk production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.18,241, which was an increase of two percent in comparison to the previous month. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest prices of Ksh.24,667 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,667 (Figure 11). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by eight percent but within the seasonal range. The increase in prices was due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. The prices were expected to appreciate further due to the improving livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat was Kshs 3,528, an increase percent comparison to the previous month (Figure 12). The price was above the STA by 25 percent within seasonal range. The prices were highest Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs. 4,100 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,400. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was attributed to by the frequent insecurity challenges that have affected market operations. The upward trend in prices in the county was attributed to improving body Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - October 2023 lower Limit Figure 11: Cattle prices Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - October 2023 Upper llimit Figure 12: Goat prices conditions as well as the ongoing festivities in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties). 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices in the county during the month under review was at Ksh. 82kg, which was stable in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13). The current prices were higher than the STA at this time of the year by 36 percent and were still outside the seasonal range. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to the ongoing harvesting of maize both within the county as well as in the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 85 perkg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.60 perkg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - October 2023 Figure 13: Maize prices Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - October 2023 Lower limit Figure 14: Posho prices During the month under review, the average posho price was at Kshs 95kg, which was stable compared to the previous month (Figure 14). The decrease in prices was attributed to the decline of maize prices in the county due to the ongoing harvesting. The price was above the STA by 35 percent but still falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 100 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 70kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.182 (Figure 15), which was a marginal decrease of four percent in comparison to the previous month. The current prices were above the STA by 37 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.200 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.177. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - October 2023 Figure 15: Beans prices 4. 3 Terms of Trade Terms of trade during the month under review were at 43, which was a slight improvement compared to the previous month and this implied that a farmer was able to fetch 43 kgs of maize in exchange for one goat (Figure 16). The current terms of trade were below the STA by 22 percent and were also falling outside the seasonal range. The improving trend of terms of trade was attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 68 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 30. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to continue declining due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and in the neighbouring counties. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a Terms of Trade - October 2023 Figure 16: Terms of trade 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was stable at 1.3 litres as compared to the previous month although it was below the LTA by 17 percent and was falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 17). Milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 2.2 litres and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at less than a litre 5.2 Food Consumption Score Household milk consumption-October 2023 Figure 17: Milk production August September October Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 18: Food consumption score The county had an average food consumption score (FCS) of 39, which was acceptable and similar as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 5.2, 43.7 and 51.1 percent of the sampled households across all livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable FCS respectively which was stable as compared to the previous month. The Pastoral, Irrigated cropping and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones had 35.6, 50.53 and 54.3 average food consumption score respectively. Households with poor consumption score were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zones at seven percent although the trend showed marginal improvement when compared to the previous month when households with poor FCS was at nine percent (Figure 18). The improving trend on FCS for the past three months could be attributed to availability of cereals, milk and leafy vegetables across the county. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 18.44 percent, a decline of six percent when compared to the previous month hence indicating an improvement (Figure 19). The current rate was above LTA by 35 percent as well as being outside the seasonal range. The improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo South sub counties. The improved availability of cereals, milk and green vegetables also contributed to the improving situation. The situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were mainly upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and drinking untreated water Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -October 2023 lower limit Figure 19: Nutrition status by MUAC 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.52, which was a deterioration compared to the previous month whose CSI was 12. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 19.1 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 14.1 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.6 (Figure 20). Generally, there was an increase in CSI across all livelihoods, a scenario that could have been contributed by high cost of living whereby income levels have remained more or less the same against high prices of food and none food commodities such as fuel. Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index Baringo County- October 2023 Figure 20: CSI 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief During the month under review, the county received 3,360 bags of rice (50 kgs) targeting all the sub counties other than Eldama Ravine. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household is receiving Kshs 11,200 and the third cycle has been done. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Kshs 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e. FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO. Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government i.e. undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Kshs 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Kshs 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. Coordination Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa spearheaded the development of participatory scenario planning (PSP) with regards to the short rains season in the county. The plan contains various sector response plans to be implemented during the season as well as communication messaging to be disseminated to different communities on the strategies to be adopted depending on the various scenarios that are likely to occur. The County government of Baringo, with the support of UNICEF, NDMA, and Red Cross did carry out a review of the flood contingency plan, a document that will guide county government and development partners on emergency operations in case of floods happening in the county. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Cases of banditry attacks were reported in Yatia areas of Baringo North sub county as well as parts of Baringo South sub county, leading to tension with a limited number of livestock being stolen. A multi-Agency security team is on the ground in a bid to restore calm. 7.2 Food security prognosis Following the onset of the short rains season, water access and availability will improve significantly across all the livelihood zones, a scenario that will result in further reduction in trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock. The rains are expected to have a positive impact on forage recovery thus leading to enhanced livestock feed availability and consequently cause further improvement in livestock body condition. Milk production is therefore expected to improve at the household level to near normal levels which will have significant impact on milk consumption at the household level. Cereal prices are expected to remain stable for the next one month while prices of pulses may drop slightly due improved supplies from other counties that are currently harvesting the crop. On the other hand, livestock prices are likely to improve due to the ongoing recovery in livestock body condition, a scenario that will lead to improvement in terms of trade especially in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Enhanced availability of cereals, pulses, leafy vegetables and milk is expected to have a positive impact on nutrition status of household members in the next one month and therefore the county is expected to record less cases of malnutrition. However, there may be sporadic cases of waterborne diseases especially in areas with poor latrine coverage since water surface run off is likely to contaminate unprotected water sources. Furthermore, upsurge in malaria cases may be witnessed due to increased breeding places for mosquitos. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Surveillance of critical water facilities to be enhanced as there are high possibilities of receiving above normal rains which may destroy the infrastructure through incidents of flooding. Advice communities and institutions to scale up rain water harvesting initiatives by putting in place appropriate facilities such as water tanks for storage of water. This include rehabilitation of harvesting facilities such as gutters, catchment roofs and tanks. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Pre-positioning of essential drugs and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) through procurement and prepositioning of essential drugs to sub counties at risk, transfer of essential medical drugs from main facilities to risk areas, procurement of ITNs and distribution to risk areas 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Ring vaccination against, CCPP, LSD, FMD and PPR should be enhanced in mapped out hot spots which include Mogotio, Marigat, Barwessa, Bartabwa, Saimo Soi, Kabarnet, Kolloa, Loyamorok, Tirioko, Ribkwo KorossiTangulbei and Churo Amaya wards. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. Assist farmers to access various assorted seedlings for fruit trees for planting. Farmers are also advised to take advantage of the rains by planting short term maturing plants such as vegetables. Enhanced soil and conservation activities especially in areas that are prone to erosion given that the season is likely to be associated with above normal rains. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Mapping of potential flood hot spots and spearhead development of key sector messages to the vulnerable populations.",
            "Baringo 2023 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2023 JULY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received moderate rains during the month under review The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was above normal greenness The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 50-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was mostly fair to good in all livelihood zones. Milk production was slightly below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. No livestock death cases which were drought related were reported in the county Access indicators Terms of trade were improving although they were still below the long term mean. Trekking distances to water sources were almost normal Utilization indicators: Coping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 113mm 80-120 VCI-3month 55.93 35-50 Of water in the water pan 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Crops area planted for the season (Maize) 39,718 acres Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Ltr) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 14.55 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2023 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the reporting period, moderate rains were received during the month under review with parts of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties receiving 45-85 mm of rainfall (Figure 1). However, most parts of Tiaty West sub county including Tirioko, Ribko, Kollowa wards as well as Silale ward in Tiaty East sub county had no rains at all during the month under review. The amount of rainfall received during the month was below the long term mean (LTA) but was still within the seasonal range (Figure 2). Figure 1: Rainfall performance-July 2023 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec:2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 2:Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2023 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three-month vegetation condition index was 55.93, depicting above normal vegetation greenness and this could be attributed to the cumulative impacts of the rains received in the county (Figure 3). However, in Tiaty East sub county, there was a reduction in VCI index and this could be attributed to the dry spells experienced during the month of May and June, with Silale ward experiencing moderate drought deficit. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture During the reporting period, the pastures were mostly in good to fair condition in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In the Pastoral areas, pastures were mostly in fair to poor conditions due to erratic performance of the rains as well as presence of invasive species which have contributed in displacement of palatable pastures and the most affected areas were Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. The pastures were expected to last for less than three months in Pastoral and parts of Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly good both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones apart from the few pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone in Tirioko ward where the browse has not regenerated well. In comparison to a normal year the current condition is slightly below normal at this time of the year in all livelihood zones. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Three-month VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2023 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Main water sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, traditional river wells and rivers (Figure 4). Most water pans and dams were at 50 to 60 percent of their full capacity. However, in the Pastoral livelihood zone, some water pans were at 20 to 30 percent of their normal capacity due to siltation and the prevailing high temperatures that resulted in high evaporation rate. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.0 km, an increase of 11 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 5) and the distances were below the LTA by two percent but within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 4.6 km. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to poor recharge of water Figure 4: Main water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Km Household Water Distances - July 2023 Figure 5: Trekking distances to water points points mostly in the Pastoral areas and decline in the available water in pansdams due to high evaporation rates. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points increased by nine percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 7.3km (Figure 6). The current distances were above the long term mean by 10 percent but were still within the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.4 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The increase in return distances were attributed to the poor regenerating of pastures and reduced water availability in the Pastoral areas. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing areas to water points- July 2023 Figure 6: Livestock water distances 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and some parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zoned were mainly in fair condition, while in the Irrigated cropping and some parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the body condition was mostly good (Figure 7). The body condition was in an improving trend compared to the past few months and this was contributed by the improved forage conditions following the onset of the long rains season. The body condition was likely to continue improving if the June-August rains are sustained. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP, LSD, FMD, red water, PR, goat and sheep pox, heart water, mange, rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 1.3 litres and this was similar to the previous month (Figure 8). The current milk production was below the long-term average by 22 percent but still within the seasonal range. The low milk production was contributed to by poor regeneration of pastures especially in the Pastoral areas. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of two litres while Irrigated cropping zone had the least average of 0.6 litres. Milk production was likely to stabilize if the June-August rains are sustained. Livestock Body condition -July 2023 BCS 1- Very poor BCS 2- Poor BCS 3- Fair BCS 4- Good BCS 5- Very good Figure 7: Livestock body condition 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was ongoing in the farms that had planted earlier. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Figure 8: Milk production 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.15,241 which was a slight decline in relation to the previous month. (Figure 9). The price was marginally low in relation to the short-term average (STA) by three percent but still falling within the seasonal range. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.20,000 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. If the June-August rains are sustained, then price gains are likely to be realised due to the expected forage improvement which will impact body condition positively. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat increased slightly by three percent compared to the previous month and was above the STA by 13 percent and fell marginally outside the seasonal range (Figure 10). The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,767 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - July 2023 lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle price Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - July 2023 Upper llimit Figure 10: Goat price livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent security challenges which was affecting market operations. The upward trend in prices was attributed to improving body conditions in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize price was Ksh 96kg which was a decline in comparison to the previous month by about 11 percent (Figure 11). The current prices were higher than the STA at this time of the year by 49 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to the ongoing harvesting of maize crop in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones as well as from the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 100 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.200 (Figure 12), which was a decrease of 11 percent in comparison to the previous month. The current prices were above STA by 48 percent and falling outside the seasonal range, a factor that was contributed by shortage of the beans at the household level due to failed crop harvest in the previous seasons. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.220 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.190. The price was expected to continue to decline as markets were getting more stocks from the neighbouring counties that are undertaking harvesting of various legume crops. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - July 2023 Figure 11: Maize price 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 31 which was an increase of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13) and this was attributed to stable goat prices and reduction in maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 35 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 43 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 22. purchasing power expected continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to drop further due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and neighbouring counties. Beans Price (KSH) Beans Price- July 2023 Figure 12: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - July 2023 Figure 13: Terms of trade 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at one litre which was a decrease of nine percent as compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long-term average by 28 percent and fell outside the seasonal range (Figure 14). The average milk consumption per household was highest in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone at 1.3 litres and lowest in Irrigated livelihood zone at 0.6litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Household milk consumption-July 2023 Figure 14: Milk consumption 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Food Consumption Score-July 2023 Figure 15: Food consumption score Generally, the county has an acceptable food consumption score of 38 which was stable as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 10.4, 39.6 and 50 percent of the households across the all livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score which was an improvement as compared to the previous month. The Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 33.9, 56.1 and 48.8 average food consumption score respectively (Figure 15). The consumption was on an improving trend as more households were shifting to borderline and acceptable bands especially in Pastoral livelihood zone. This was attributed to availability of leafy vegetables at household level as well as improving access to cereal products due to the declining market prices. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 20.19 percent, which was a decline in comparison to the previous month at 21.8 percent (Figure 16). The current proportion was above the LTA by 30 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. The relative improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty west and Baringo south. The situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported included upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and consumption of untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition -July 2023 lower limit Figure 16: Nutrition status based on MUAC 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) The current average coping strategy index was at 14 which was almost stable when compared to the previous month. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.7 (Figure 17). Overall, there was a slight decrease in the households food consumption gaps in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Coping Strategy Index - July 2023 Figure 17: CSI 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief The county did receive a total of 6,714 bags of rice for distribution across the sub counties other than Eldama Ravine. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household received KSh 11,200 during the month. (Totaling to Kshs. 54,073,600) Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner is ongoing in Sabor and Endao sub locations. Once recruitment is accomplished then each household will receive KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches of KSh. 20,000, 45,000, 45,000. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Ksh 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and FAO. Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government i.e. undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. In addition, SMART survey was also done in the listed areas during the month. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio) 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The county was relatively calm during the month under review as there were no major insecurity incidents that were reported. 7.2 Migration Some of the animals that had migrated out of the county were trooping back to their usual wet seasonal grazing areas following limited recovery in forage conditions. 7.3 Food security prognosis The onset of the JJA season is most likely to enhance recharge of water sources, thereby improving water access and availability across the county. Trekking distances to water points are expected to reduce. Limited recharge of rivers is likely to improve hence enhancing river flows. Water consumption rate will also improve further while incidents of water contamination will decline due to reduction in congestion at the watering points. Water quality is also expected to improve due to the expected increase in water volumes at the sources. The quality and quantity of forage resources is expected to improve in the next one month due to the impact of the JJA rains. Coupled by improved water availability for livestock, livestock body condition is expected to improve further for all the livestock species across the county hence resulting in improved livestock productivity in terms of milk availability and live carcass weight. The ongoing harvesting of various crops will stabilise food availability at the household level and therefore minimise food consumption gaps and consequently reducing demand pressure in the local markets thus stabilizing the prices. Availability of leafy vegetables is also expected to be in plenty hence improving the nutrition status of the household members. With the expected improvement of livestock body condition, livestock prices are expected to pick up progressively thus improving income sources for the Pastoral households while cereal prices are expected to decline due to the ongoing crop harvest thus resulting in improved terms of trade for the Pastoral households. Milk consumption at the household level is expected to remain stable but will still be below the LTA and the seasonal range but will likely start to pick up after one month if the August rains are sustained. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to availability of limited milk and leafy vegetables. The ongoing crop harvest of cereals and some pulses will greatly contribute to food availability at the household level and therefore enriching dietary diversity. The nutrition status of household members is therefore expected to remain stable for the next one month as incidents of malnutrition are expected to decline steadily. Furthermore, households are expected to apply less consumption based coping strategies due to the expected reduction in consumption gaps in the next one month. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Support livelihood activities such as pasture establishment and conservation in order to enhance forage availability. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard.",
            "Baringo 2023 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for August 2023 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received light rains during the month under review. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was normal. The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 60-70 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition was majorly fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was in fair to good condition Milk production was slightly below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. There were no cases of drought related livestock mortality cases Access indicators Terms of trade were improving but still below the long term means Distances to water sources for households were slightly above normal seasonal range but on a declining trend Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was high and above the long term mean. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 122 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 60-70 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Crops area planted for the season (Maize) 39,718 acres Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 20.5 15.5 13.28 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the reporting period, moderate rains were received during the first dekad of the month under review but the rains did decline significantly from the second dekad onwards, signifying the cessation of the June- July August season (JJA) as depicted in figure one. The overall spatial distribution of the rains was poor, with most parts of the county receiving 0-11mm of rains during the month under review (Figure 2). The overall amount of the rains received during the month were below the long term mean (LTA) but still within the seasonal range (Figure 3). Figure 2: Spatial rainfall distribution 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall amount and distribution in time Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 3:Rainfall trend 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index (VCI) was normal at 49, which was a decline as compared to the previous month whose VCI value was 55.9 (Figure 4). Most of the wards in the high land regions in the county had above normal vegetation greenness which was attributed to having received relatively higher amount of rains during the JJA season while in the low land areas, most of the wards had vegetation that depicted normal greenness (Figure 5). In Tiaty East sub county particularly Silale, Loyamorok and Tangulbei wards, the VCI depicted moderate vegetation deficit and this was attributed to poor rainfall performance experienced in the area during the JJA season (Figure 5). 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture During the reporting month the pastures in all livelihood zones were mostly in poor to fair condition with only a few pockets in the Irrigated and Agro pastoral livelihood zones having good pastures. This was due to poor rainfall performance during the month and invasive species that have suppressed the regeneration of pastures. The pastures were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month was mostly fair to good both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones apart from the few pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone where the browse has not regenerated fully. In comparison to a normal year the current condition is slightly below normal at this time of the year in all livelihood zones. The available browse is expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 5: County VCI Figure 5:Ward level VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2023 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, traditional river wells and rivers, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 70 percent of their full capacity though in the Pastoral livelihood zone some water pans were at 20 to 30 percent of their normal capacity and this was due to siltation and the prevailing high temperatures that are causing water loses through evaporation. The most affected wards with water stress were Silale, Loyamorok, Tirioko, and parts of TangulbeiKoross. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization Water Sources For - August 2023 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 6: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Km Household water distances - August 2023 Figure 7: Trekking distances The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.9 km, a decrease of 13 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances were above the long-term average (LTA) by 16 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.4 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to the rains that were received during the last dekad of July and early August. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was similar in comparison to the previous month at 7.3km (Figure 8). The current distances were above the long term mean by 21 percent whereby the Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 8.6km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The stability in the trekking distances was attributed to fair recharge of water sources due to the rains received during the JJA season. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area -August 2023 Figure 8: Livestock return distances 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and some parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones were mostly in fair condition (BCS 3) with some pockets having cattle that were in poor condition (BCS 2) as shown in figure nine. The current livestock body condition was occasioned by relative stability in pasture and browse availability and access as well as decreased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP, LSD, FMD, Red Water, PPR, Goat and sheep pox, Heart water, Mange, Rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.5 litres, which was an increase of 15 percent in relation to the previous month (Figure10). The milk was mainly from camel and cattle. The current milk production was below the long-term average by six percent as well as falling outside the seasonal range. The improving milk production was attributed to regeneration of pastures. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 2.2 litres while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least average of 1.2 litres. 0 19 22 0 Livestock body condition-August 2023 BCS 1-Vero poor BCS 2- Poor BCS 3- Fair BCS 4- Good BCS 5-Very good Figure 9:Livestock body condition 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was almost being concluded. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Household Milk Production Baringo County- August 2023 Figure 10: Milk production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.17,616, which was a 16 percent increment in comparison to the previous month. (Figure 11). The increase in prices was due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. The price was above the short-term average (STA) by seven percent, which was within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.20,667 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The prices were expected to appreciate further due to the improving livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat increased by eight percent from the previous month at Kshs. 2,950 to Ksh.3,187 in the month under review (Figure 12). The price was above the STA by13 percent and was outside the seasonal range, which was a positive deviation. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs. 3,700 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,200. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was partly attributed to by the frequent insecurity situations that was affecting market operations. The upward trend in prices was attributed to by the improving body conditions in the county. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - August 2023 lower Limit Figure 11: Cattle price 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize Maize prices dropped further by seven percent in comparison to the previous month to retail at Kshs 89kg in the month under review (Figure 13). The current prices were higher than the STA at this time of the year by 54 percent and were still falling outside the seasonal range. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to by the ongoing harvesting of maize both in the county and the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 92 per kg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.70 per kg. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices- August 2023 Figure 13: Maize prices Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - August 2023 Upper llimit Figure 12: Goat prices 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.194 (Figure 14), which was a marginal decrease of three percent in relation previous month. The current prices above STA by 44 percent still falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.240 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.186. The current trend was attributed to the ongoing harvesting of beans both within and without the county as well as availability of other legume crops such as green grams which were serving as a substitute for beans. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 36 which was an increase of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 17) and this was attributed to by the increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 33 percent and were still below the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 53 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to continue decreasing due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and the neighbouring counties. Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - August 2023 Figure 14: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - August 2023 Figure 15: Terms of trade 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.2 litres which was an increase of 20 percent as compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below the long-term average by 19 percent (Figure 16) and was below the seasonal range. Milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at less than one litre. 5.2 Food Consumption 5.2.1 Food consumption score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 39 which was a slight improvement as compared to the previous month at 38. A proportion of 5.2, 42.2 and 52.6 percent of the households across the all livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively which was an improvement as compared to the previous Household Milk Consumption -August 2023 Figure 16: Milk consumption 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 August Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 17: Food consumption score month. The Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 36, 51.2 and 50.1 average food consumption score respectively. About seven percent and 51 percent of the sampled households in the Pastoral livelihood zones had poor and borderline food consumption scores respectively. Food consumption was on an improving trend more so in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as more households were shifting to borderline and acceptable consumption scores (Figure 17). This was attributed to milk availability, leafy vegetables and cereals at household level as a result of improving livestock body condition and the ongoing crop harvest in the county. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 20.5 percent, which was stable as compared to the previous month. The current proportion was above the LTA by 33 percent and was still out of the seasonal range (Figure 18). The stability in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo South as well as improved availability of food commodities at the household level. The situation is expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported include Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households are taking untreated water. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South, North,Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -August 2023 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition by MUAC 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) The current average coping strategy index was at 13, which was a slight improvement as compared to the previous month at 14. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 18 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 14 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.8 (Figure 19). The improvement in CSI was as a result of improving food consumption at the household level due to ongoing crop harvest and reduced cereal prices. Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index - August 2023 Figure 19: CSI 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief The county did receive a total of 3,360 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution across the sub counties other than Eldama Ravine. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household is receiving Kshs 11,200 and the third cycle has been done. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor sub location whereby the first and second disbursements were done whereby beneficiaries received Kshs 20,000 and Kshs 45,000 for the two cycles respectively. In Sandai location, targeting of beneficiaries is ongoing. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The program will run for three months and targeting of beneficiaries is ongoing. Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) is implementing Emergency response program targeting 1,000 beneficiaries with cash transfers whereby each will receive a total of Kshs 12,000. Each beneficiary will also receive five bags of range cubes (50kg) for livestock feed supplementation. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Ksh 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and FAO. Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government i.e. undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Kshs 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Kshs 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. In addition, SMART survey was also done in the listed areas during the month. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio) 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There no reported cases of unusual livestock migration in the county. 7.3 Food security prognosis With the conclusion of the JJA season, water access and availability will be expected to remain stable in the next one month following limited recharge of water sources. Marginal increase in trekking distances to water points is likely to be observed in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones due to the prevailing high temperatures that are likely to drive water losses through evaporation. Water consumption rate will also remain stable while incidents of water contamination will decline due to reduction in congestion at the watering points. Water quality is expected to remain fair The quality and quantity of forage resources is expected to remain stable in the next one month due to the impact of the JJA rains. Coupled by improved water availability for livestock, livestock body condition is expected to improve further for all the livestock species across the county hence resulting in improved livestock productivity in terms of milk availability and live carcass weight. The ongoing harvesting of various crops will stabilise food availability at the household level and therefore minimise food consumption gaps and consequently reducing demand pressure in the local markets thus stabilizing the prices. Availability of leafy vegetables is also expected to be in plenty hence improving the nutrition status of the household members. With the expected improvement of livestock body condition, livestock prices are expected to pick up progressively thus improving income sources for the Pastoral households while cereal prices are expected to decline due to the ongoing crop harvest thus resulting in improved terms of trade for the Pastoral households. Milk consumption at the household level is expected to remain stable but will still be below the LTA and the seasonal range. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to availability of limited milk, leafy vegetables and cereal products. The ongoing crop harvest of cereals and pulses will greatly contribute to food availability at the household level and therefore enriching dietary diversity. The nutrition status of household members is therefore expected to remain stable for the next one month as incidents of malnutrition are expected to decline steadily. Furthermore, households are expected to apply less consumption based coping strategies due to the expected reduction in consumption gaps in the next one month. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Support livelihood activities such as pasture establishment and conservation in order to enhance forage availability. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard.",
            "Baringo 2023 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EW bulletin September 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for September 2023 SEPTEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received moderate to heavy rains during the month under review. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was normal. The water levels in most water sources were at 60-80 of their capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition was mostly good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was in fair to good condition Milk production was almost normal across the livelihood zones. There were no cases of drought related livestock mortality cases Access indicators Terms of trade were improving but still below the long-term mean. Distances to water sources for households were slightly above normal seasonal range but on a declining trend Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was high and above the long-term mean. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 58 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 43.98 35-50 of water in the water pan 60-80 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Production HHMonth) Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water Households- trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by MUAC ( at risk) 20.5 15.5 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 13.28 19.0 Food Consumption Score (FCS) Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, light to moderate amount of rainfall were received across the county, with the high land areas receiving an average of 13-38 mm of rains while the lower areas mostly in Tiaty areas received less than 13 mm of rains (Figure 1). The bulk of the rains were received during the first and second dekad of the month (Figure 2). The amount of rainfall received during the month were above the long-term mean (LTA) but within the seasonal range (Figure 3). Figure 1: Spatial distribution 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo County(Jan - Sept.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Temporal distribution Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 2: Rainfall trend 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three-month vegetation condition index for the county was normal at 43, though this was a decline as compared to the previous month which was at 49 (Figure 4). About six wards were exhibiting moderate drought conditions and these were Tirioko, Silale, Loyamorok, Tangulbei, Emining and Kisanana and this was attributed to the depressed amount of rainfall received during the month of July and August compared to the LTA (Figure 5). However, vegetation conditions were expected to improve in the next one month as the county received relatively good amount of rainfall during the month under review. 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture During the reporting month the pastures in all livelihood zones were mostly in fair to good conditions and this was contributed by fair amount of the rains that were received during the last one month. The pastures were expected to last for about three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone given the prevailing conditions. 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly in good conditions both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones. In comparison to a normal year the current condition was normal at this time of the year across livelihood zones. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 4: Three Month VCI-County level Figure 3: Ward level 3 Month VCI Baringo county drought EW bulletin September 2023 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were water pans, traditional river wells and rivers (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 80 percent of their full capacity although there were a few water pans in the Pastoral areas which had less than 50 percent of water due to siltation and poor designs. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.6 km, a decrease of eight percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7) and the distances were above the LTA by four percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of four kilometres. The decline in distances was attributed to recharge of water points and regeneration of pastures following fair performance of the rains in the last one month Water Sources For Baringo County -September 2023 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 4: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household water distances - September 2023 Figure 5: Trekking water distances 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was seven kilometers which was a decline of four percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 8). The current distances were above the LTA by 20 percent whereby the Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of eight kilometres while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The decline in return distances was attributed to the ongoing forage regeneration and recharge of water sources. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and parts of the Agro-pastoral livelihood zones were in fair to good condition in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, livestock body condition was good and this was attributed to the continued improvement in forage and water availability (Figure 9). The livestock body conditions for all the livestock species were expected to improve further due to the expected onset of the short rains season which will bring stability in forage and water availability and access. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing field to watering points: September 2023 Figure 6: Return grazing distances 15 0 Livestock body condition for cattle-September 2023 BCS1-Very poor BCS2-Poor BCS3-Fair BCS4-Good BCS5-Very good Figure 7: Livestock body condition 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties although there were normal incidents of CCPP LSD, FMD, Red Water, PPR, goatsheep pox, Heart water, Mange, Rabies and ECF. Planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.6 litres and this was an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 9). The current milk production per household was below LTA by 11 percent but still within the seasonal range. The improving milk production was contributed by the ongoing regeneration of pastures and improved water availability. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest production averaging 2.3 litres while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least production of 1.3 litres. Milk production was anticipated to increase further due to the prevailing conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers have concluded harvesting of various crops from their farms and land preparation was ongoing in preparation for the short rains season. 4.0. MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle rose by 10 percent during the month under review to retail at Ksh.17,852 compared to the previous month (Figure 11). The increment was attributed to the continued improvement of the livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. The price was above the short-term average (STA) by seven percent but was still within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.19,000 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,000. The prices were expected to appreciate further due to the anticipated rains that will enhance forage and water availability. Household milk production - September 2023 Figure 8: Milk production 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat increased by nine percent during the month under review to retail at Kshs 3,487 (Figure 12) The price was above the STA by 20 percent and was slightly above the seasonal range which was being attributed to the improving livestock body condition. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs. 3,933 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,500. The prices were expected to continue appreciating further due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition for the goat. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a decline of seven percent in maize prices during the month under review to retail at Kshs 82kg in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13). The current prices were higher than STA at this time of the year by 41 percent and were also outside the seasonal range. The decline in maize prices was attributed to improved maize availability at the household level, a factor that was contributed to by the conclusion of harvesting of maize crop both within and outside the county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 86 per kg while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.60 per kg. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - September 2023 lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle price Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County - September 2023 Upper llimit Figure 10: Goat prices 4.2.2 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.190 during the month under review (Figure 14), and this was a marginal decrease of two percent in comparison to the previous month. The current prices were above the STA by 51 percent and were still falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.200kg while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.185kg. The high prices were attributed to less availability of the commodity in the local market following poor harvest of the same due to poor rainfall performance during the long rains season. 4. 3 Terms of Trade (ToT) The terms of trade were at 42 during the month under review, which was an increase of 19 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 15) and this was attributed to increasing goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below LTA by 27 percent and falling below the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 66 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least ToTs at 31. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to continue decreasing due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and the neighbouring counties. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- September 2023 Figure 11: Maize prices Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices- September 2023 Figure 12: Beans prices 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.3 litres during the month under review, which was an increase of eight percent as compared to the previous month. The current milk consumption was below LTA by 18 percent and falling below the seasonal range. (Figure 16). Milk consumption per household was highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at less than a litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score The overall food consumption score for the county was acceptable at 39, which was stable as compared to the previous month. In terms of proportions, about 6.7, 43 and 50 percent of the sampled households had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. Even though there was a notable improvement in food consumption at the household level in the county, the scenario in the Pastoral livelihood zone was different as there was a marginal decline in the proportions of households having acceptable food consumption while at the same time there was a slight increase in the percentage of households having borderline and poor food consumption score (Figure 17). This could be due to reduced surplus income for purchasing food due to the prevailing high cost of food and none food commodities. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of trade - September 2023 Figure 13: Terms of trade Household milk consumption-September 2023 Figure 14: Milk consumption 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 20 percent, which was a slight decline by four percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 18). However, the current rates were still above LTA by 40 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range in comparison to a typical year. The slight improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo south sub counties and the situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported include Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was also poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. August September Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 15: Food consumption score Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -September 2023 lower limit Figure 16: Nutrition status by MUAC 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 12 during the month under review, which was an improvement compared to the previous month whose CSI was 13. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed coping strategies at 17 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 13 while in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, households employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.4 (Figure 19). The high CSI values could be due to the presence of relatively higher food consumption gaps which was forcing households to engage more coping strategies for as a means of coping up with food shortages. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief During the month under review, there was no food distribution exercise done in the county. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household is receiving Kshs 11,200 and the third cycle has been done. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor sub location whereby the first and second disbursements were done whereby beneficiaries received Kshs 20,000 and Kshs 45,000 for the two cycles respectively. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) is implementing Emergency response program targeting 1,000 beneficiaries with cash transfers whereby each will receive a total of Kshs 12,000. Each beneficiary will also receive five bags of range cubes (50kg) for livestock feed supplementation. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being Agro pastoral Irrigated Coping Strategy Index - September 2023 Figure 17: CSI targeted at a cost of Ksh 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO. Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government i.e. undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Kshs 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Kshs 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There no reported cases of unusual livestock migration in the county. 7.3 Food security prognosis The rains that were received in the month under review were significant and therefore they are going to enhance water access and availability across the county. Trekking distances to watering points are therefore expected to decline in the next one month across all livelihoods as the county is expecting to receive more rains going by the forecast. Water consumption rates for both livestock and humans are expected to improve due to the expected water abundance. Water quality is most likely to improve due to the expected increase in water volumes apart from areas that may be experiencing sanitation and hygiene challenges. The quality and quantity of forage resources is expected to remain stable in the next one month due to the impact of the ongoing rains. Coupled by improved water availability for livestock, livestock body condition is expected to improve further for all the livestock species across the county hence resulting in improved livestock productivity in terms of milk availability and live carcass weight. The conclusion of harvesting of various crops will stabilise food availability at the household level and therefore minimise food consumption gaps and consequently reducing demand pressure in the local markets thus stabilizing the prices. Availability of leafy vegetables is also expected to be in plenty hence improving the nutrition status of the household members especially in the Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones. With the ongoing improvement of livestock body condition, livestock prices are expected to pick up progressively thus improving income sources for the Pastoral households while cereal prices are expected to decline further due to the ongoing crop harvest thus resulting in improved terms of trade for the Pastoral households. Milk consumption at the household level is expected to remain stable but will still be below the LTA and the seasonal range. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to availability of limited milk, leafy vegetables and cereal products. The ongoing crop harvest of cereals and pulses will greatly contribute to food availability at the household level and therefore enriching dietary diversity. The nutrition status of household members is therefore expected to remain stable for the next one month as incidents of malnutrition are expected to decline steadily. Furthermore, households are expected to apply less consumption based coping strategies due to the expected reduction in consumption gaps in the next one month. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Surveillance of critical water facilities to be enhanced as there are high possibilities of receiving above normal rains which may destroy the infrastructure through incidents of flooding. Advice communities and institutions to scale up rain water harvesting initiatives by putting in place appropriate facilities such as water tanks for storage of water. This include rehabilitation of harvesting facilities such as gutters, catchment roofs and tanks. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Pre-positioning of essential drugs and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) through procurement and prepositioning of essential drugs to sub counties at risk, transfer of essential medical drugs from main facilities to risk areas, procurement of ITNs and distribution to risk areas 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Ring vaccination against, CCPP, LSD, FMD and PPR should be enhanced in mapped out hot spots which include Mogotio, Marigat, Barwessa, Bartabwa, Saimo Soi, Kabarnet, Kolloa, Loyamorok, Tirioko, Ribkwo KorossiTangulbei and Churo Amaya wards. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This includes construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. Assist farmers to access various assorted seedlings for fruit trees for planting. Farmers are also advised to take advantage of the rains by planting short-term maturing plants such as vegetables. Enhanced soil and conservation activities especially in areas that are prone to erosion given that the season is likely to be associated with above normal rains. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Mapping of potential flood hot spots and spearhead development of key sector messages to the vulnerable populations.",
            "Baringo 2023 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2023 MAY EWS PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received some rains in the month under review which was less in amount and intensity The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was above normal greenness across the County. Most of the water pans and dams were almost full across the county. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is fair to good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was fair to good for all livestock species Milk production was improving across the county. No drought related livestock death cases were reported. Access indicators Terms of trade were improving Distances to water sources were declining across the county Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was stable but still above LTA. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal seasonal range. Food consumption score was improving across the livelihood zones. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall (First 2 dekads) 84 mm 50-269mm VCI-3month 50.49 35-50 Percent of water in pansdams 80-90 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 21.57 16-19 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance (Amount) The onset of the long rains season was observed during the second dekad of March (14th to 15th of March 2023). Heavy rains were observed during the second and third decad of March but subsided during the first and second decad of April during which sporadic light showers wer being witnessed across the county. During the last dekad of April, there were heavy downpours across the county (Figure 1). During the month under review (May), rainfall amount received subsided significantly across the county, with the season ceasing by the third dekad of the month. The rainfall amount received during the month under review was below the long term average (LTA) but within the seasonal range (Figure 2). The spatial distribution of the rains was un even during the month under review, with the Northern parts of the County receiving very little rains, with Akoret division in Tiaty West sub county being the most affected (Figure 3). The temporal distribution was poor to fair during the first two dekads of May. Barringo rainfall Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance Baringo rainfall Figure 3: Rainfall trend Figure 2: Spatial rainfall distribution Figure 5: Vagetation condition index (3 monthVCI) Pasture conditions, May 2023 Figure 6: Pasture conditions Figure 4: Ward level VCI 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month VCI was 50.49 which was above normal greenness across the county as depicted in figure five . However, there are some wards which are still struggling to replenish their vegetation to their normal levels as they had lost a lot of it during the previous drought spell and these include Silale, ChuroAmaya, Mukutani, Emining, Kisanana and Mogotio wards (Figure 4). 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture During the reporting month the pastures in all livelihood zones fair-good conditions attributed to by the good rainfall performance during the long rains season (Figure 6). The pastures are expected to last for three to four months in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones months in Irrigated livelihood given prevailing conditions. Brwse conditions, May 2023 Figure 7: Browse condition Figure 8: Water sources Browse The browse condition during the month under review was good both in quantity and quality across the livelihood zones apart from the few pockets in Pastoral livelihood zone in Tirioko ward where the browse has not regenerated fully (Figure 7). In comparison to a typical year, the current browse condition was normal at this time of the year in all livelihood zones.The available browse is expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, water pansdams and traditional river wells at 25, 22 and 15 percent respectively (Figure 8). Most water pans and dams were at 80 to 90 percent of their full capacity following good performance of the long rains season. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which is normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2023 Households Distance to Water Source in Household Water Distances - May 2023 Figure 9: Household trekking distances 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 3.5km, a decrease of four percent as compared to the previous month and they were below the LTA by 34 percent though within the seasonal range (Figure 9). Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of four kilomitres. The decrease in trekking distances was attributed to recharge of water points following the onset of the long rains season. 2.2.3 Livestock water access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was about 5.8 km, a decrease of 18 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 10). The current distances were below the LTA by 30 percent but within the seasonal range. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 6.6 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The decrease in return distances was attributed to the regeneration of pastures and recharge of water sources across the county. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return Distance from grazing areas to water points- May 2023 Figure 10: Return distances from grazing areas Livestock body condition- May 2023 BCS 1- Very poor BCS 2- Poor BCS 3- Fair BCS 4- Good BCS 5- Verygood Figure 11: Livestock body condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral livelihood zone was poor to fair, while in the Irrigated cropping and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, condition generally in good condition (Figure 11). The body condition is improving across all livelihood zones following the onset of the long rains season which has led to improved forage and water availability. trend livestock body condition recovery is expected to improve due to the expected improvement forage quality and quantity as well as water access and availability. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP,LSD,FMD,Red Water,PPR, Goat and sheep pox,Heart water,Mange ,Rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges . 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was 1.5 litres, which was an increase of 36 pecent in relatation to the privious month (Figure 12). The current milk production per household was above the long term average by 21 percent but within the seasonal range and the trend was expected to continue increasing due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest average milk production of 1.7 litres while Agro-pastoral zone had the least production of 0.5 litres. Household Milk Production- May 2023 Figure 12: Milk production 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers in theMixed farming, Irrigated cropping, Agro-pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones are done with planting of various crops . The maize crop is at knee high and flowering stage, though this varies from area to area depending on the planting date. All the crops planted so far are in good condition. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices- May 2023 lower Limit Figure 13: Cattle prices Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - May 2023 Upper llimit Figure 14: Goat prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for a medium-sized cattle during the month under review was Ksh.15,222, which was an increase of about nine percent in relation to the previous month (Figure 13). The increase in prices was due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was similar to the short-term average (STA) and within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.21,000 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The prices are expected to appriciate further due to the improving livestock body condtion as a result of the improved forage conditions and water availability. Goat Prices. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - May 2023 Figure 15: Maize prices Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - May 2023 Lower limit Figure 16: Posho prices The average price of a medium sized goat increased slightly by five percent from the previous month to post at Ksh.2,920 during the month under review (Figure 14). The price was above the STA by 16 percent and outside the seasonal range. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,767 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,500. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity chalenges that has affected market operations. The upward trend in prices was attributed to improving livestock body condition in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The current average maize price was Ksh 100kg, an increase of six percent in comparison to the pevious month (Figure 15). The currenty price was extremely higher than the STA by 81 percent and was falling outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households are depending on retailers for the maize who get the commodity from neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.103 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.75 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - May 2023 Figure 17: Beans prices The average posho price was at Ksh 114kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 109kg (Figure 16) and the increase was attributed to high fuel prices, diminished maize stocks at household level and increased maize prices in all livelihood zones. The price was above the STA by 79 percent and falling far off from the seasonal range.. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 119 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 85kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.202 (Figure 17), and this was an increase of 19 percent in comparison to the previous month. The current prices are above the STA by 55 percent and outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.205 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.190. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity associated with poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 29 which was stable in comparison to the previous month (Figure 18). This has been attributed to increasing goat prices despite the high maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 37 percent and way below the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 50 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 25. The purchasing power is expected to continue improving due to the expected improvement in livestock prices. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - May 2023 Figure 18: Terms of trade Household milk consumption -May 2023 Figure 19: Milk consumption 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Food consumption score-May 2023 Figure 20: Food consumption score 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.3 litre which was an increase of 30 percent as compared to the previous month . The current milk consumption was above the LTA by 14 percent and was within the seasonal range (Figure 19). The average milk consumption per household was highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 1.7 litres and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at one litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 37.6 which was stable as compared to the previous month. A proportion of 5.2, 48 and 46.8 percent of the households across all livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores which was an improvement as compared to the previous month.The Pastoral , Agro- pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones had 34.4, 51 and 46.8 average food consumption score respectively(Figure 20). The consumption is on an improving trend as more households are shifting to borderline and acceptable consumption scores especially in Pastoral livelihood zone. This was attributed to availability of milk and leafy vegetables at household level. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of chldren at risk of malnutrition -May 2023 lower limit Figure 21: Nutrition status by MUAC Coping Strategy Index - May 2023 Figure 22: CSI 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 22 percent which was stable compared to the previous month.The current rate was above the LTA by 22 percent and well outside the seasonal range (Figure 21). The stability in nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty West and Baringo South sub counties. The situation is expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county as well as the improving milk availability at the household level. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported included upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), flue and malaria cases 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) The current average coping strategy index was at 14, which depicted a slight improvement compared to the last month whose index was at an average of 15. Households in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.5 (Figure 22). Overall, there was a reduction in the household consumption gaps across all livelihood zones. Agro-pastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Through the office of the County Comissioner, the County received 6,720 bags of rice (50kg) and 3,360 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution to the vulnerable populations in all the sub counties except Ravine. NDMA office distributed 24.662 Metric tonnes of assorted relief food (12.268-Nakuru-Gilgil, 14.454- Baringo-Tirioko) which comprised of 22kg food hamper (Rice- 8kgs, maize flour-6kgs, green mung beans- 3kg Uji flour-3 kgs, Salt-1kg, vegetable oil-1kg) .The consignement was received from the National Steering Committee on Drought Response for distribution to the vulnerable households in the affected areas. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500. The program has also been extended to target 2,050 more households starting March to August 2023 where each beneficiary will receive a total of Ksh 11,200 per month. Targeting and registration of 2050 households was concluded during the month. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner. Targeting 4 Locations- Loboi, Kimalel, Kapkuikui, Ewalel soi. With a Total number of households reached 2300 households (9890 direct and indirect beneficiaries) each HH is receiving KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches. (20,000, 45,000, 45,000). Additionally the organization is expanding the program to cover Sabor and Endao sub location and there are in the preliminary stage of targeting. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward). The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million . NDMA has supported ploughing of 135 acres of land for the IDP community affected by insecurity challenges in Arabal area, Baringo South sub county. This is expected to assist the IDP members to start afresh their livelihood activities by being able to produce their own food. Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and Water sector NDMA is undertaking desilting of one water pan for the DRR Kamar community in Mogotio sub county. UNICEF in collaboration with the county government ia undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross has carried out assessment of some critical water facilities for rehabilitationUpscaleUpgrade and include Bebogoi water project ,Nakoko water project, Ponpon water project and Chemutung water project (Up scale). They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs ) have also been recieved and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Health and Nutrition The World Foof Program (WFP) in partnership with the County Government is undertaking management of moderately acute malnutrition in all the the sub counties covering 102 health facilities. The program is targeting 14, 468 children of under five years of age and 3 targeting 4,468 Children under 5 years, 3,049 PregnantLactating Women Achievement so far is 6,837 Children, 4,464 PLWs with support from WFP. UNICEF Supporting with WASH NFIs cost - KES 5,295,402. Some of the items include jerry cans, puri tablets, soaps, buckets, Conducted 2 cycles of mass screening (August 2022 and February 2023) and Supporting KRCS to manage emergency supply pipeline for nutrition. Enviroment The department is undertaking participatory climate risk assessment for the 30 wards under the FLOCCA(facilitating locally led climate actions). 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There wee a few insecurity incidents reported around Loruk area that lies in the boundaries of TiatyEast, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties whereby a nuber of livestock were reported to have been stole. 7.2 Migration There were no unusual livestock migrations in the county and herders were returning their animals to their usual wet season grazing areas. 7.3 Food security prognosis Folowing a relatively good recharge of water sources, water access and availability is expected to improve hence further reductions in trekking water distances for both humans and livestock is expected. Water consumption rates are expected to improve further while incidents of water contamination will decline due to reduction in congestion at the watering points. Water quality is also expected to improve due to increased water volumes at the sources, a scenario that will make the water to have less concentrates that would have otherwise polluted it. The quality and quantity of forage resources is expected to improve further in the next one month as the soils still have enough moisture to sustain their grouth. Coupled by improved water availability for livestock, livestock body condition is expected to improve further for all the livestock species across the county hence resulting in to improved livestock productivity in terms of milk availability and live carcass weight. For the early planted crops such as maize, limited harvesting is expected to start picking up within the next one month hence reducing demand pressure in the local markets thus stabilizing the prices. Availability of leafy vagetables is also expected to be in plenty hence improving the nutrition status of the household members. With the expected improvement of livestock body condition, livestock prices are expected to pick up progressively thus improving income sources for the Pastoral households while cereal prices are expected to remain stable hence resulting in improved terms of trade for the pastoral households. Morever, farmers are highly unlikely to release their animals to the markets following the onset of the rains as they will use the opportunity to fatten their existing stocks as well as for breeding purposes, a factor that will reduce supply of animals to the markets and creating shortages. Milk consumption at the household level is expected to improve as a result of improved milk production while dietary diversity will improve due to availability of milk, leafy vagetables and some cereals.The nutrition status of households is therefore expected to remain stable for the next one month. Furthermore, households are expected to apply less consumption based coping strategies due to the expected reduction in consumption gaps in the next one month. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the Pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support upscaling of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities . Support livelihood activities such as pasture establishment and conservation in order to enhnce forage availability. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Increase survailance for outbreaks of crop pests and diseases 8.1.5 Drought coordination Review and update drought esponse contingency plans, incorporating lessons learnt in responding to the just ended drought event.",
            "Baringo 2023 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2023 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county observed onset of the long rains season whose performance was good. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the 3 month VCI was normal The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 20-40 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is mostly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is poor in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones.. Access indicators Terms of trade are poor and below long term Distances to water sources for households were on a decreasing trend across the county Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is above the long term mean but stable Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal seasonal range. Most households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT IMPROVING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 20-40 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 35.5 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.2 Amount of rainfall and distribution The onset of the long rains season was observed during the second dekad of the month under review (14th to 15th of March) with most parts of the county experiencing moderate to heavy rains, translating to about 155 percent of the normal rainfall amount received so far by the end of the third week of March (Figure 1). Spatial distribution of the rains was relatively even while temporal distribution was fair to good. The rains were still being received by the end of the month under review. Figure 2: Ward level 3 M VCI Figure 4: Pasture conditions 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index (VCI) was normal for the county with most of the wards having normal to above normal VCI apart from Emining, Kisanana and ChuroAmaya wards which had moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 2 and 3).The improvement in VCI was occasioned by the onset of the rains during the month under review. 2.2 Field observation Pasture During the reporting period, the pastures in all livelihood zones were in poor condition with only afew pockets in the Irrigated livelihood zones having fair pastures (Figure 4). However, following the onset of the long rains, pasture regeneration is ongoing across the county. Figure 3: County level 3 M VCI Figure 5: Browse condition Figure 6: Main water sources Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly poor to fair both in quality and quantity (Figure 5) . The browse condition is improving following the onset of the long rains and therefore in the next one month, browse availability is expected to have improved significantly if the rains are sustained. 2.3 Water resources 2.3.1 Water sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were boreholes, traditional river wells and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 20 to 40 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and the recharge was ongoing following the onset of the log rains season. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2023 Figure 7: Trekking distances to water points Figure 8: Grazing distance 2.3.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources declined by 11 percent in comparison to the previous month and now stands at 4.8km in the month under review (Figure 7). The distances were below the long average (LTA) percent. The decline in trekking distances was contributed by the onset of the long rains season whereby households are accessing water from nearer sources as compared to last month. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest trekking distance at an average of five kilometres while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distances at an average of two kilometres. 2.3.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points declined marginally from 8.8km 8.3km comparison to the previous month, translating to a six percent decline (Figure 8). The decline was attributed restart forage regeneration following the onset of the long rains season. The distances were below the LTA by 14 percent which is a desirable scenario for the livestock herders. However, both Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones posted the highest trekking distances at nine and six kilometres respectively while the Irrigated livelihood zone had the least trekking distances at two kilometres. The distances are expected to drop further as water and forage availability improves following the onset of the rains. Figure 9: Livestock body condition BCS: Body Condition Score Figure 10: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle was mainly poor to fair as depicted by Figure 9 (BSC1-2) and this was attributed by the prevailing poor forage conditions especially in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the cattle were yet to return to their usual wet seasonal grazing areas. However, following the onset of the rains, forage and water availability for livestock are expected to improve and therefore impact positively on livestock body condition. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP,LSD,FMD,Red Water,PPR, goat and sheep pox, heart water, mange ,rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review was less than a litre (Figure 10) though there was marginal improvement by 29 percent compared to the previous month. This trend is expected to be maintained due to the onset of the rains which wil trigger forage and water improvement in terms of availability and access which in turn should lead to improvement in body condition thus leading to improved livestock productivity. The current production level is still below LTA by 27 percent with the Pastoral livelihood zone having the highest production level of about 1.3 litres while the Irrigated zone had the least production at half a litre. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most farmers are engaged in planting of various crops on their farms. Figure 11: Cattle prices Figure 12: Goat prices 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.13,315, a marginal decrease in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 14,537. (Figure 11), translating to a drop of eight percent.The decrease in prices is due to the deterioriating livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was below the short-term average (STA) by 18 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.23,667 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.11,000. The prices are expected to start improving in the next one month expected improvement condition coupled by the fact that farmers are likely to hold their existing stocks for fattening breeding following onset of the rains. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat improved marginally by 10 percent from Ksh 2,331 in the previous month to Ksh 2,564 during the current month (Figure 12) and was below the STA by four percent. The prices were highest in irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,300 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,100. The increasing trend was attiributed to by the ongoing recovery of the livestock body condition following the onset of the rains which has triggered browse regeneration. Figure 13: Maize prices Figure 14: Posho prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a marginal increase maize prices three percent 91kg during previous month to Ksh 94kg currently (Figure current prices extremely higher than the STA at this time of the year by percent. increase maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households are relying on markets in accessing maize thus contributing to high prices due to the high demand. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.96 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Ksh 105kg compared to the previous month 101kg (Figure translating increament of four percent. increase in prices was attributed to prices, diminished stocks at household level and increased maize prices livelihood zones. price above the STA by 87 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 106 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 80kg. Figure 15: Beans prices Figure 16: Terms of trade 4.2.3 Beans Prices There was a slight increase in beans prices compared to the previous season whereby a kilogram was retailing at an average price of Ksh 165, translating to five percent increament (Figure 15). The price was above the STA by 32 percent and the highest prices were observed in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 190kg while the lowest prices were observed in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 155. The high prices are being contributed by lack of adequate stocks in the county and households are exclusively depending on markets. 4. 3 Terms of Trade (ToTs) Terms of trade improved marginally from 26 during the previous month to 27 in the month under review, translating to a seven percent rise (Figure 16). The terms of trade were below the STA by 51 percent, implying that a sale of one goat is able to fetch 27 kgs of maize against 56kgs in a typical year. The ToTs were highest in the Irrigated lielihood zone at 46 while the Agro-pastoral zone had the least ToTs at 23. Figure 17: Milk consumption Figure 18: Food consumption score 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption There was a 29 percent marginal improvement in household milk consumption per day when compared to the previous month although the consumption level is still less than a litre day (Figure 17). Compared to the long term average, milk consumption was still low by 29 percent. Pastoral zone had the highest consumption at 1,3 litres while the Agro-pastoral zone had the least consumption of about half a litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) On average, the county had 14, 42 and 44 percent of the sampled households having poor, borderline and acceptable food consumotion scores respectively. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest number of households without acceptable FCS whereby about 18 and 51 percent of the sampled households had poor and borderline FCS respectively, implying that households were accessing highly nutritious foods such as milk, meat, eggs, fish among others (Figure 18). In the Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones, about 20 and three percent of the sampled households had borderline FCS. Figure 19: Nutrition status by MUAC Figure 20: Coping strategy index 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 23 percent, an increase of about 11 percent when compared to the previous month and that the current rate was above LTA by about 33 percent (Figure 19). There are current ongoing nutrition intervention programs in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty west and Baringo south. The nutrition situation is expected to remain stable with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South, North,Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 15 which was a minimal decline as compared to the previous month at 17. Households Pastoral livelihood employed more coping strategies at 16 followed by Agro pastoral livelihood zone at 15 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at four (Figure 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Through the office of the County Comissioner, the County received 3,920 bags of rice (50kg) and 3,920 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution to the vulnerable populations across the county. NDMA office distributed 28 tonnes of relief food which comprises of various assorted food items to the vulnerable households in Saimo Soi ward, Baringo North sub county. The consignement was received from the National Steering Committee on Drought Response. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500. The program has also been extended to target 2,050 more households starting March to August 2023 where each beneficiary will receive a total of Ksh 11,200 per month. The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,747 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by GiveDirectly partner. Targeting 4 Locations- Loboi, Kimalel, Kapkuikui, Ewalel soi. With a Total number of households reached 2300 households (9890 direct and indirect beneficiaries) each HH is receiving KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches. (20,000, 45,000, 45,000). 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward). The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million . Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government ia undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross has carried out assessment of some critical water facilities for rehabilitationUpscaleUpgrade and include Bebogoi water project ,Nakoko water project, Ponpon water project and Chemutung water project (Up scale). They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs ) have also been recieved and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Water trucking to learning institutions, health facilities and communities by BCG especially in affected areas of Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East, Tiaty West. Health and Nutrition The World Foof Program (WFP) in partnership with the County Government is undertaking management of moderately acute malnutrition in all the the sub counties covering 102 health facilities. The program is targeting 14, 468 children of under five years of age and 3 targeting 4,468 Children under 5 years, 3,049 PregnantLactating Women Achievement so far is 6,837 Children, 4,464 PLWs with support from WFP. UNICEF Supporting with WASH NFIs cost - KES 5,295,402. Some of the items include jerry cans, puri tablets, soaps, buckets, Conducted 2 cycles of mass screening (August 2022 and February 2023) and Supporting KRCS to manage emergency supply pipeline for nutrition. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Migration Livestock are yet to return to their usual wet season grazing fields although there are indications that some animals have started trooping back from where they had moved to and in the next one month most of the animals should be within their usual grazing places. Insecurity Several cases of banditry were reported in Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties leading to loss of lives and several livestock being stolen. Joint security operations to flush out the bandits are ongoing. 7.2 Food security prognosis Following the onset of the long rains season, the immediate impact to be felt will be an improvement of water access and availability, hence trekking distances to watering points are expected to be reduced and fall within normal range. Waiting tme at water sources will also be shorter as households are expected to access water from nearby sources and therefore relieving pressure on the critical water facilities that were being relied upon during the drought period. Water quality is also expected to improve due to increased water volumes at the sources, a scenario that will make the water to have less concentrates that would have otherwise polluted it. Forage regeneration is expected to pick up within the next one month hence improving the quantity and quality of available pastures and browse. This will lead to recovery of livestock body condition hence translating in to improved livestock productivity in terms of live carcass weight, milk production among others. Livestock prices are likely to start increasing due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Morever, farmers are highly unlikely to release their animals to the markets following the onset of the rains as they will use the opportunity to fatten their existing stocks as well as for breeding purposes, a factor that will reduce supply of animals to the markets and creating shortages. On the other hand, cereal prices will continue to remain high due to shortages of the commodities in the local markets. Consequentlt, marginal improvement in terms of trade is expected due to the anticipated increase in livestock prices. Food consumption gaps are likely to continue being felt more so in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and consequently more households are expected to be in borderline and poor FCS bands. Malnutrition cases are therefore likely to persist above the long term average. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support upscaling of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Input subsidy such as fertilizers, seeds and fuel to support vulnerable households to undertake farmig activities as they take advantage ot the ongoing rains.",
            "Baringo 2023 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2023 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: AlertWorsening Biophysical Indicators The county did not receive any rains during the month under review The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the NDVI is below normal and on a worsening trend The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 0-20 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is mostly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is poor in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are poor, worsening and below long term mean. Distances to water sources for households were on an increasing trend across the county Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is above the long term mean but stable Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal seasonal range. Most households in Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable FCS. PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Average rainfall MM () 80-100 VCI-3month 35-50 Of water in the water pan 0-20 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition (BSC) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 20.84 17.1 Copping strategy index (CSI) 16.86 19.0 Food consumption score (FCS) 35.5 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution During the month under review, there were no rains received in the county (Figure 1). Dry spells accompanied by very high temperatures ware observed across the different livelihood zones. The vagatation conditions as depicted by the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) in figure one shows a declining trend during the period under review and was below the long term average (LTA). Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Pasture condition Figure 2: Pasture conditions, February 2023 Browse condition Figure 3: Browse condition, February 2023 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Field observation Pasture During the reporting month the pastures in all livelihood zones were in poor condition with only a pockets Irrigated livelihood having pockets that had pastures in fair conditions (Figure 2).This was attributed rainfall performance during the previous seasons which was compounded by the presense of invasive species in the Pastoral areas that have greatly hindered regrouth palatable pasture species. In the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas, pastures have been depleted and cattle were being fed on browse and other alternative sources such as tree branches. Browse The browse condition during the month under review was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In the Irrigated zone, browse conditions. In comparison to a typical current condition was below normal at this time of the year in all livelihood zones.The available browse is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and two months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 4: Water sources Figure 5: Trekking household distances Figure 6: Grazing distances 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Main water sources The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were boreholes, traditional wells and water pans, (Figure 4). Most water pans and dams were at 0-20 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and this was caused by poor recharge resulting from poor rainfall performance. Other factors that have contributed to reduced water amount in the pans include siltation, hgh day time temperatures that are causing rapid evaporation as well as increasing congestion at the remaining few water pans. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was poor, which was not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was 5.4km, an increase of 13 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 5). The distances were slightly below the LTA by 16 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 6.5 km. The increase in distances were attributed to drying up of water sources. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by six percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 8.8km (Figure 6). The current distances were below the LTA by four percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of while Irrigated livelihood recorded the least average distance of two kilometres. The increase in return distances was attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. The most affected wards were Silale, Tangulbei Korossi, Churo Amaya, Tirioko and Saimo Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 7:Livestock body condition Key: BCS1-Body condition score 1 (Very poor) BCS2- Body condition score 2 (Poor) Figure 8: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is generally very poor in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as well as some pockets in the Irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 7).The current livestock body condition has been occasioned by poor pasture and browse and increased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to the drought conditions and the county may start reporting above normal livestock mortality. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP,LSD,FMD,Red Water,PPR, goat and sheep pox, heart water, mange ,rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was less than a litre, which was almost similar in comparison to the previous month (Figure 8) and the milk was mainly from camel and goats. The decrease in production was contributed by deteriorating livestock body condtion. Irrigated cropping had the highest production averaging at 1.4 litres while Agro- pastoral had the least production averaging at 0.3 litres. The current milk production is below LTA by 49 percent. The milk production is anticipated to decrease further due the prevailing drought conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers in the Irrigated cropping, Agro-pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones have cleared their farms in preparation for the anticipated long rains. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 9: Cattle price Figure 10: Goat price Figure 11: Maize price 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. current average price medium-sized cattle was Ksh.14,537 a marginal decrease in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 14,654. (Figure 9). The decrease in prices is due to the deterioriating livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was below the short- term average (STA) by 15 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.24,000 while Agro-pastoral livelihood recorded the least average price of Ksh.13,000. The prices are expected to decline further due to the poor livestock body condition as a result of the ongoing drought spell coupled by the ongoing security operations in the Pastoral areas. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat decreased slightly by five percent compared to the previous month to stand at Ksh.2,332 (Figure 10). The price was below the STA by 16 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 2,800 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,200. The decreasing trend in prices is attributed to worsening drought conditions in the county as well as poor market operations due to insecurity challenges. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was a slight increase of one percent in the current maize prices in comprison to the previous month to stand at Ksh 91kg (Figure 11). The current prices are extremely higher than the STA at this time of the year by 91 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households are depending on retailers for the maize who get the Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 12: Posho price Figure 13: Beans prices Figure 14: Terms of trade commodity from neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.94 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Ksh 101kg which was stable compared to the previous month (Figure 12). The increase in prices was attributed to high fuel prices, diminished stocks household level and increased maize prices in all livelihood zones. The price was above the STA by 83 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 104 while the irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 80kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.157 (Figure 13). The current prices are above the short- term average by 30 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.180 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.130. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall season. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 25.7 which was a marginal decline in comparison to the previous month at 27.5 (Figure 14). This has been attributed to decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 56 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 40 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24.3. The household purchasing power expected continue detoriating due to the poor state of livestock body condition. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 15: Milk consumption Figure 16: Food consumption score 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was less than a litre. The current milk consumption was below the LTA by 42 percent (Figure 15). Milk consumption was highest Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 1.3 litres and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at 0.3 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score (FCS) Generally, the county has acceptable FCS of 35.1 which was stable compared to the previous month. A proportion of 16, 41 and 43 percent of the households across all livelihood zones poor, borderline acceptable food consumption scores respectively which was abit stable as compared to the previous month.The Pastoral , Agro-pastoral, and Irrigated livelihood zones had 32.6, 41 and 47.2 average FCS respectively(Figure 16). The consumption is on a worsening trend as more households are shifting towards poor and borderline bands especially in Pastoral livelihood zone which can be attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at household level . Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Figure 17: Nutrition by MUAC Figure 18: CSI 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 20.84 percent, which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 22.6 and was above the LTA by 22 percent (Figure 17). The current trend could be due to the ongoing nutrition intervention programs in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty west and Baringo south. nutrition situation is expected to remain stable with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South, North,Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) The current average coping strategy index was at 16.86 which was stable compared previous month. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 25.3 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 17.5 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.6 (Figure 18). Overall, households in Agro-pastoral livelihood recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions General food relief Through the office of the County Comissioner, the County received 1,560 bags of rice (50kg) and 1,800 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution to the vulnerable populations across the county. Social protection World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500. The program has also been extended to target 2,050 more households starting March to August 2023 where each beneficiary will receive a total of Ksh 11,200 per month. The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,747 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by GiveDirectly partner. Targeting 4 Locations- Loboi, Kimalel, Kapkuikui, Ewalel soi. With a Total number of households reached 2300 households (9890 direct and indirect beneficiaries) each HH is receiving KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches. (20,000, 45,000, 45,000). 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward). The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million . Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and Water sector UNICEF in collaboration with the county government ia undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross has carried out assessment of some critical water facilities for rehabilitationUpscaleUpgrade and include Bebogoi water project ,Nakoko water project, Ponpon water project and Chemutung water project (Up scale). They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs ) have also been recieved and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Water trucking to learning institutions, health facilities and communities by BCG especially in affected areas of Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East, Tiaty West. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 Health and Nutrition The World Foof Program (WFP) in partnership with the County Government is undertaking management of moderately acute malnutrition in all the the sub counties covering 102 health facilities. The program is targeting 14, 468 children of under five years of age and 3 targeting 4,468 Children under 5 years, 3,049 PregnantLactating Women Achievement so far is 6,837 Children, 4,464 PLWs with support from WFP. UNICEF Supporting with WASH NFIs cost - KES 5,295,402. Some of the items include jerry cans, puri tablets, soaps, buckets, Conducted 2 cycles of mass screening (August 2022 and February 2023) and Supporting KRCS to manage emergency supply pipeline for nutrition. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There was livestock migration during the month in Tiaty areas whereby they were reported to be moving to West pokot county and Uganda in search of pastures . Other animals are moving towards Lake Baringo from as far as Laikipia Nature conservancy in Laikipia county. Livestock were also reported to be moving towards Arabal and Saimo Soi areas in search of pastures and water. The Governement has initiated a major security operation in Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties with the aim of restoring peace in the disturbed areas whereby a dawn to dusk curfew has been imposed. 7.3 Food security prognosis The drought spell is likely to continue for the next one month and therefore forage conditions are expected to deteriorate further thus affecting feed availability for livestock, a factor that is bound to further worsen the livestock body condition which is currently in poor state. This scenario is likely to trigger limited above normal livestock mortality cases. Milk production and consumption is expected to remain very low compared to a normal year due to the prevailing poor livestock body condition. Due to poor recharge of water sources compounded by high day temperatures, water access and availability will continue to pose a major challenge for the next one month. Water volumes in the few remaining water pans will decline further while discharge rate at the operational boreholes will continue to decline further especiall in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. Trekking distances to watering poits for both livestock and human consumption is expected to rise further due to drying up of more water pans. Waiting time at watering points especially in the peri urban areas are expected to rise due to increased congestion. The quality of water in the open water sources is expected to deteriorate further due to increasing congestion by both humans and livestock. Livestock prices are expected to deteriorate further due to the poor state of the livestock body condition coupled by market disrruptions caused by the ongoing security operations in Tiaty areas while prices of cereals and pulses will remain very high compared to normal years. This scenario is therefore expected to adversely affect terms of trade. Increasing food consumption gaps are likely to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and consequently more households are expected to shift towards borderline and poor FCS bands. This is therefore expected to trigger more malnutrition in the households but the cases are are likely to be stabilised by the ongoing outreach programs in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2023 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Water trucking services to health and education institutions Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support upscaling of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities Livestock feed supplementation is urgently required to forestall cases of livestock mortality of the productive stocks that have been left behind at the households. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Input subsidy such as fertilizers, seeds and fuel in preparation for the coming cropping season",
            "Baringo 2023 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2023 JANUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county experienced dry spells during the month under review The county has moderate vegetation deficit as depicted by the VCI The Water levels in most water sources are below normal at 0-20 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage condition is mostly poor in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition is fair to poor in all livelihood zones. Milk production is below the normal seasonal range across all livelihood zones. Access indicators Terms of trade are declining and below long term means Distances to water sources for households are above normal seasonal ranges and on aa increasing trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is high and above the long term mean. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score but on a deteriorating trend. LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING AGRO PASTORAL ALERT WORSENING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL WORSENING COUNTY ALERT WORSENING Biophysical Indicators Value the month Baringo Monthly Baringo Normal ranges Kenya Average rainfall MM () 80-120 VCI-3month 32.98 35-50 Of water in the water pans 0-20 50-60 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Unusual Normal Livestock Body Condition Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (Ltr) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Crops planted season(Maize) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 22.66 16.7 Nutrition status malnourished children 6-59 months by family MUAC 16.84 19.0 35.5 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance 1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial distribution Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance The county did not receive any rains during the month under review and was charecterised by very high temperatures during day times (Figure 1). Figure 4: Pasture conditions Figure 2: Ward level VCI, January 2023 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) Figure 3: 3 month VCI The county had moderate vegetation deficit (32.98) with the following sub counties being the most affected; Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo South and parts of Baringo North (Figure 3). In total, 14 wards are having moderate vegetation deficit compared to the last month when only nine wards were in the same phase (Figure 2). 2.1.1 Field observation 2.1.1.1 Pasture The pastures in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones were in poor condition (Figure 4). This was due to poor rainfall performance during the previous seasons and invasive species that have surpressed the growth of pastures. In the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone the pastures are fair to poor and on a dwindling trend.. The current pastures are expected to last for one month in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones given the prevailing conditions. There are no pastures in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and farmers were feeding their cattle on acacia tree branches. Figure 5: Browse condition Figure 6: Water sources 2.1.1.2 Browse The browse condition during the month was mostly fair to poor both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while good to fair in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones (Figure 5). The condition is below normal as compared to the seasonal range at this time of the year. The available browse is expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and two months in irrigated cropping 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were boreholes, traditional wells and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 0-20 percent of their full capacity in the Pastoral livelihood zone due to siltation, poor recharge associated with poor rainfall performance as well as high tmperatures causing rapid evaporation. . Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for less than one month in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and one month in Irrigated livelihood zone. Figure 7: Trekking distances Figure 8: Grazing distance 2.2.2 Household access and utilization average household trekking distance to water sources was 4.8km, an increase of nine percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances are slightly below the long term average (LTA) by 10 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of two kilomitres while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 6.2 km. The increase in distances are attributed to drying up of water points . 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields increased by four percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 8.3km (Figure 8). The current distances are above the long term mean by two percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9.2km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of four kilometres. The increase in return distances are attributed to the diminishing pastures and water sources in the county. The most affected wards are Silale, Tangulbei korossi, churo Amaya, Tirioko and Saimo soi. Figure 10: Milk production Figure 8: Livestock Body Condition Figure 9: Livestock body condition 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition in the county for cattle was generally in fair condition as shown in the chart (Figure 9). The Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones had fair-poor livestock body conditions and was in a worsening trend, a factor that was caused by depletion of pasture resources. In the Irrigated livelihood zone, the body condition was good-fair. The current livestock body condition has been occasioned by poor pasture and browse and increased distances to water sources across the livelihood zones. The body condition is likely to continue deteroriating due to the drought conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP,LSD,FMD,red water, PPR, goat and sheep pox, heart water,mange ,rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month was 0.7 litres, this was a decrease of 30 percent in relatation to the prior month (Figure 10).The milk was mainly from camel and goats. The decrease has been contributed by deteriorating livestock body condtions. Irrigated cropping had the highest average of 1.5 litres while Agro-pastoral has the least average of 0.3 litres. The current milk production is below LTAs by 55 percent. The milk production is anticipated to decrease further due to the prevailing drought conditions. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the anticipated long rains season. Figure 11: Cattle price 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.14,654 a decrease of eleven percent in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 16,2426. (Figure 11). The decrease in prices is due to the deterioriating livestock body condition across all livelihood zones.The price was below the short-term average of 18,880 by 22 percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.26,333 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The prices are expected to decline further due to the poor livestock body condtion as a result of the ongoing drought. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat decreased slightly by seven percent from the previous month at Ksh. 2,635, to Ksh.2,446 currently (Figure 12). The price was below the short term average (STA) by 12 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,000 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The decreasing trend in prices is attributed to worsening drought conditions in the county. Figure 12: Goat price Figure 13: Maize prices Figure 14: Posho prices 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize There was an increase of three percent in the current maize prices in relation to the previous month at Ksh 90kg (Figure 13). The current prices are extremely higher than the short-term average at this time of the year by 94 percent. The increase in maize prices is to be attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households are depending on retailers for the maize who get the commodity from neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.100 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Ksh 100kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 95kg (Figure 14). The increase in prices was attributed to high fuel prices, diminished stocks at household level and increased maize prices in all livelihood zones. The price was above the short-term average by 86 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 103 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Ksh. 80kg. Figure 15: Beans prices Figure 16: Terms of trade 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.152 (Figure 15). The current prices are above the short- term average by 22 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.160 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.120. The high prices are attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade was at 27.3 which was an decrease in comparison to the previous month at 34.4 (Figure 16). This has been attributed to by the decreasing goat prices and increasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 55 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 36.2 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24.4. The purchasing power is expected to continue being eroded as the livestock body condition worsens. Figure 17: Milk consumption Figure 18: FCS 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 0.7 litres as compared to the previous month at 0.9 litres, which was a decrease of 22 percent and that the current consumption rate was below the long term average by 49 percent (Figure 17). The milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 1.3 litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 0.3 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county has a borderline Food Consumption Score of 31.9 which was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 35.8. A proportion of 15, 41 and 44 percent of the households across the livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores as compared 13, 38 and 49 in the previous month respectively.The Pastoral Irrigated, and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones had 32, 46 and 47 average food consumption Score respectively. Food consumption is on a worsening trend as more households are shifting to poor and borderline consumption scores especially in pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 18) and this was attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at the household level. Figure 19: Malnutrition by MUAC Figure 20: CSI 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 22.6 percent, which was an increase as compared to the previous month at 18.4 (Figure 19). The current proportion is above the LTA by 36 percent. worsening nutrition status contributed to by minimal consumption household level especially in the Pastoral areas. The worseni trend is likelty to continue being observed due to the deteriorating food situation at the household level. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported include Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Water quality is poor mostly in Baringo South, North,Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 16.84 which was a minimal increase as compared to the previous month at 16. Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 25.2 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 17.5 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.6 (Figure 20). Overall, households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions There was no relief food issued in the county during the month under review. World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is caryyng out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, TiatyWest, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000 The Kenya Red cross is targeting 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household is receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three onths in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is providing cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organisation is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 in three tranches. This is a onne off program that is expected to last for about four months. Kenya Red Cross About 20 schools across various sub counties were targeted with food relief Distribution of ready to use therapeutic feeds (RUTF) to all IMAM facilities in Baringo County is ongoing. KRCS have conducted integrated medical outreaches in Tiaty East and Tiaty West Sub counties Nutrition Early Action for Scalable Response in Emergencies project which is being supported by UNICEF, is being implemented in two sub counties namely Tiaty West and Tiaty East . It supports 20 hard to reach sites with integrated medical outreaches. Livestock sector Provision of improved chicken and Galla bucks to targeted groups in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty courtesy of SHASAIIFSK Participatory Integrated Community Development for Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty through ERLP(Desert Locust) Project. Health and Nutrition With support from WFP, there is restocking of nutrition commodities for the management of malnutrition in Tiaty sub county. IMAM program in 120 health facilities across the county Routine Vitamin A supplementation and deworming in health facilities IMAM surge monitoring ongoing in 18 out of 26 health facilities in Tiaty west and East sub counties Agriculture Promotion of Agri nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions targeting the vulnerable households whereby they have been issued by kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.2 Migration There were livestock stock migration during the month whereby in Tiaty; the livestock were reported to be moving to West pokot county and Uganda in search of pasture. The reported migrations were from Laikipia nature conservancy towards L.Baringo and Arabal areas. Other animals were moving towards Saimo Soi ward where some tension is building up. 7.3 Food security prognosis Most households will continue to rely on markets for food stocks as they exhaust the existing stocks following consecutive crop failures. No significant harvest particularly for maize is expected hence most households will resort to other alternative sources of food through purchases, relief food, gifts among others. The conditions of range land resources including pastures and browse will worsen significantly due to moisture stress, resulting in reduced livestock feed. This will lead to further deterioration of livestock body condition particularly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas. Consequently, livestock productivity will drop including milk production and live carcass weight. Household herd size are expected to decline slightly as limited livestock mortality will be observed in some pockets of the county (Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones). Market operations are expected to remain near normal though a few will be interrupted but insecurity challenges resulting from resource-based conflict. Food prices particularly for cereals will remain above normal while livestock prices will remain below long term average, and this will lead to worsening of terms of trade hence eroding the purchasing power of Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. Water access and availability will continue to worsen as most of the surface-based water sources in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones will dry up, leading to an increase in trekking distances and waiting time at water source. Water consumption at the household level will continue to decline across all livelihood zones while cost of water will go up for vendors as they will have to cover more distances in fetching water. Water quality will continue to deteriorate due to congestion of both humans and livestock at the water sources, a factor that may contribute to increase of water borne diseases. Food consumption gaps will continue to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, leading to more households drifting to borderline and poor food consumption score bands. Households will be adopting crisis coping strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, borrowing among others. Malnutrition cases will spike up in the next two months due to the reduced quantity and quality of food being consumed at the household level. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Activation of drought contingency plans for drought response water interventions in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones should be done. Provision of water treatment chemicals at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. To rehabilitate broken down boreholes and shallow wells within the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. To purchase more plastic tanks (10,000ltrs) to be installed in strategic institutions for water delivery during water trucking, rain water harvesting upon onset of the rains. Desilt the water pans that have currently dried up in order to expand their water holding capacity. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support drought response coordination meetings Train more CHVs and caregivers on family MUAC Support mass screening and refferals in identified hotspot sites Health facilities to be supplied with essential drugs and water treatment chemicals Support of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Advocate for social behaviour changes and communication for improved dietary practices among children and women of reproductive health. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Activation of drought contingency plans for drought response livestock interventions in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones should be done. Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities",
            "Baringo 2023 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2023 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical Indicators The county received moderate to heavy rains mostly towards the last dekad of the month. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was normal. The Water levels in most water sources were above 60 percent. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators: The forage conditions were fair to good across the county. Livestock body condition was fair to good across the county and was improving. Milk production was normal with an improving trend. There were no cases drought related livestock deaths. Access indicators Terms of trade were below normal but showing an improving trend. Distances to water sources for households were below LTA with a declining trend. Utilization indicators: The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition is high and above LTA. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households is within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households have acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Kenya Rainfall amount in mm 67.3 (First 2 dekads) 36-268 VCI-3month 35-50 Water Households- trekking distance Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1-1.7 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 43-60 Milk Consumption (Ltr) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 22.3 16-20 14.94 35.5 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2023) RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season was observed during the second dekad of March (14th to 15th of March 2023). Heavy rains were observed during the second and third decad of March but subsided during the first and second decad of April during which sporadic light showers wer being witnessed across the county Figure 1). During the last week of April, the county did witness heavy downpours on almost a daily basis.The spatial distribution was even while the temporal distribution was fair to good. By the end of the second dekad of April, the county had received about 47 percent of the normal rains compared to 160 percent that were received in the previous month. Figure 1: Rainfall perfomance The normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) has been improving and is on an upward trend since the previous month. Currently the NDVI value is above normal compared to the long term mean (LTA). Figure 2: Ward level 3M VCI Figure 3: County 3M VCI 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The three month vegetation condition index (3M VCI) depicts above normal vegetation greenness across the county apart from Emining, Kisanana, ChuroAmaya and Silale wards which still exhibits moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 2 and 3). With the ongoig rains across the county, vegetation condition is expected to continue improving with time. Figure 4: Pasture conditions Figure 5: Browse conditions 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture During the reporting period, the pastures in all livelihood zones were mostly in fair to good condition following the onset of the rains (Figure 4). In the Pastoral areas, pastures are still very young and watery (Lush pastures) and therefore they are poor in quality.Pastures in the highlands mostly in the Mixed farming livelihood zone are in fair to good conditions both in terms of quality and quantity and may last for at least two months if the recovery trend continues. Browse The browse condition during the month was mostly fair to good both in quantity and quality in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and good in the Irrigated livelihood zone (Figure 5). In comparison to a normal year the current condition is slightly below normal at this time of the year in livelihood zones.The available browse is expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2023 Figure 6: Water sources Figure 7: Water access distances 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Source The major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones were rivers, traditional river wells and water pans, (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 60 to 70 percent their capacity. However in the Pastoral livelihood zone, some water pans are 20 to 30 percent of their normal capacity due to siltation and design challenges. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair, which is normal at this time of the year. The current open water sources are expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and six months in Irrigated livelihood zone.The proportions of households relying on rivers and traditional river wells has been going up due to the ongoing rains. 2.2.2 Household access and Utilization The average household trekking distance to water sources was four kilomitres, a decrease of seven percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The distances are below the LTA by 37 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilomitre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 5.6 km. The decline in trekking distances can be attributed to the 0ngoing recharge of water sources following the onset of the rains. Figure 8: Grazing distances 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields decreased by 14 percent in comparison to the previous month; the distance was at 7.1km (Figure 8). The current distances are below the long term mean by 25 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the longest average distance of 9.4km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The decrease in return distances were attributed to the regeneration of forages and recharge of water sources in the county following the onset of the long rains season. Livestock Body condition Baringo County- April 2023 Figure 9: Livestock body condition Figure 10: Milk production 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for cattle as depicted by body condition score (BCS) Pastoral livelihood zone was BCS 2 (Poor) while in the Irrigated and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones, the body condition was BCS 3 (Fair) (Figure 9).The current livestock condition has been occasioned by regeneration pastures declining wate distances following the onset of the long rains season. This trend is likely to continue as the county is is still experiencing good rains across the livelihood zones. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal incidents of CCPP,LSD,FMD,Red Water,PPR, Goat and sheep pox,Heart water,Mange ,Rabies and ECF. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced household per day during the month was 1.1 litres, this was an increase of pecent comparison to the privious month (Figure 10). The milk was mainly from camel and cattle. The increase contributed improving livestock body condtions due to improved forage and water access and availability. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest production of 1.7 litres while Agro-pastoral had the least average of 0.5 litres. The current milk production trend is below LTAs by eight percent but is showing an improving trajectory. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Currently most farmers in the Irrigated cropping, Agropastoral and Marginal mixed Farming livelihood zones have finished planting the maize crops. The maize are at weeding stage, however some farmers are yet to plant due to lack of farm inputs. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The current average price for a medium-sized cattle was Ksh.13,926 which was a marginal increase in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 13,315. (Figure 11). The increase in prices was due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones though the price was still below the short-term average (STA) by eight percent. Irrigated livelihood zone posted the highest prices of Ksh.21,000 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.10,000. The prices are expected to appriciate further due to the improving livestock body condtion as a result of the ongoing rains, which are likely to enhance forage availability hence impacting positively on liestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat increased slightly by eight percent compared to the previous month and was now at Ksh. 2,780 and that the price was above STA by nine percent (Figure12). The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,333 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,500. The upward trend in prices is attributed to improving livestock body conditions in the county 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize Figure 11: Cattle prices Figure 12: Goat prices Figure 13:Maize prices 4.2 Cereal and pulses prices 4.2.1 Maize prices There was a slight increase of one percent in the current maize prices in comparison to the previous month at Ksh 94.1kg (Figure 13). The current prices are extremely higher than the short-term average at this time of the year by 76 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households are depending on retail markets whereby the commodity is being sourced from the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.100per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho price was at Ksh 109kg compared to the previous month at Ksh 105kg (Figure 14). The increase in prices was attributed to high fuel prices, diminished stocks at household level and increased maize prices in all livelihood zones. The price was above the STA by 83 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Ksh. 114 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least price of Ksh. 80kg. Figure 14: Posho prices Figure 16: Terms of trade 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.169 (Figure 15) and that the current prices are above the STA by 33 percent. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.180 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.160. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall season. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were at 30 which was an increase in comparison to the previous month at 27 (Figure 16) and this implies that a sale of one goat was able to fetch 30 kg of maize compared to 27 kg last month.. This has been attributed to by the increasing goat prices despite the existence of high maize prices. The current terms of trade are below the long-term average by 39 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 47.6 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least 27.4. purchasing power is expected to continue improving due to the expected continuous improvement livestock condition and decline in maize prices due to Government imports. Figure 15: Beans prices Figure 17: Milk consumption 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption average consumption per household per day was litre, which was an increase of 11 percent compared previous month . The current consumption was below the average by 11 percent (Figure 17). Milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 1.3 litres and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at 0.5 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Generally, the county has an acceptable Food Consumption Score of 37.9 which was an increase as compared to the previous month at 35.1. A proportion of 6, 40.9 and 53.1 percent of the sampled households across the all livelihood zones have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively which was abit stable as compared to the previous month.The Pastoral , Agro- pastoral, and Irrigated livelihood zones had 34.6, 50.5 and 47.9 average food consumption score respectively(Figure 18). The consumption is showing an improving trend due to decline in food consumption gaps and this was attributed to improving milk availability and leafy vegetables at household level following the onset of the rains. Figure 18: Food consumption score Figure 19: Nutrition status by MUAC Figure 20: CSI 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who are at the risk of malnutrition during the month was 22.3 percent, which was a marginal decline as compared to the previous month at 23.2 (Figure 19). The current proportion is above the LTA by 26 percent. The improving nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed to by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty west and Baringo south as well as the improving food security situation at the household level.. The situation is expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported included Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level. Contamination of open water sources is likely to occur following the onset of the long rains season especial in the Pastoral areas that have very low latrine coverage. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 14.9 which was stable as compared the previous month Households in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 17.2 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 16.2 while the Irrigated zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.8 (Figure 20). Overall, households in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past three months followed by those in Pastoral livelihood zone. 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Through the office of the County Comissioner, the County received 6,720 bags of rice (50kg) and 3,360 bags of beans (50kg) for distribution to the vulnerable populations across the county. NDMA office distributed 108 Metric tonnes of assorted relief food (58 MT to Nakuru and 50 MT to Baringo Counties) which comprises of (22kg food hamper-Rice 8Kgs, maize flour-6Kgs, green mung beans-3Kg Uji flour-3 Kgs, Salt-1Kg, vegetable oil-1Kg) to the vulnerable households in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North sub County, Marigat ward in Baringo South sub county and Tirioko ward in Tiaty West sub county, Solai and Lengenet wards in Rongai Sub county) . The consignement was received from the National Steering Committee on Drought Response. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targetting 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500. The program has also been extended to target 2,050 more households starting March to August 2023 where each beneficiary will receive a total of Ksh 11,200 per month. Targeting and registration of 2050 households was concluded during the month. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by GiveDirectly partner. Targeting 4 Locations- Loboi, Kimalel, Kapkuikui, Ewalel soi. With a Total number of households reached 2300 households (9890 direct and indirect beneficiaries) each HH is receiving KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches. (20,000, 45,000, 45,000). Additionally the organization is expanding the program to cover Sabor and Endao sub location and there are in the preliminary stage of targeting. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward). The project components will include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture resseding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water fascilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million . NDMA has supported ploughing of 35 acres of land for the IDP community affected by insecurity challenges in Arabal area, Baringo South sub county. This is expected to assist the IDP members to start afresh their livelihood activities by being able to produce their own food. Livestock sector Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shaots-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by BCG and Water sector NDMA is undertaking desilting of one water pan for the DRR Kamar community in Mogotio sub county. UNICEF in collaboration with the county government ia undertaking rehabilitation of 20 water facilities benefitting approximately 60,000 people at a cost of Ksh 28 million. Another 3,750 households will be reached with hygiene promotion in partnership with MoH to mitigate water borne diseases and this also includes eradication of open defecation at a cost of Ksh 5.2 million. Kenya Red Cross has carried out assessment of some critical water facilities for rehabilitationUpscaleUpgrade and include Bebogoi water project ,Nakoko water project, Ponpon water project and Chemutung water project (Up scale). They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs ) have also been recieved and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Water trucking to learning institutions, health facilities and communities by BCG especially in affected areas of Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East, Tiaty West. Health and Nutrition The World Foof Program (WFP) in partnership with the County Government is undertaking management of moderately acute malnutrition in all the the sub counties covering 102 health facilities. The program is targeting 14, 468 children of under five years of age and 3 targeting 4,468 Children under 5 years, 3,049 PregnantLactating Women Achievement so far is 6,837 Children, 4,464 PLWs with support from WFP. UNICEF Supporting with WASH NFIs cost - KES 5,295,402. Some of the items include jerry cans, puri tablets, soaps, buckets, Conducted 2 cycles of mass screening (August 2022 and February 2023) and Supporting KRCS to manage emergency supply pipeline for nutrition. Enviroment The department is undertaking participatory climate risk assessment for the 30 wards under the FLOCCA(facilitating locally led climate actions). 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity cases were reported in Baringo South sub county whereby a number of livestock were stolen by bandits and at least two persons lost their lives. Major multy agency security operation is ongoing in an effort to flush out the bandits. 7.2 Migration Following the onset of the rains, herders have started moving their animals to their usual wet season grazing sites. Migration cases are expected to decline significantly as the forage conditions improves. 7.3 Food security prognosis Following the onset of the long rains season, the immediate impact to be felt will be an improvement of water access and availability, hence trekking distances to watering points are expected to be reduced and fall within normal range. Waiting tme at water sources will continue to be shorter as households are expected to access water from nearby sources and therefore relieving pressure on the critical water facilities that were being relied upon during the drought period. Water quality is also expected to improve due to increased water volumes at the sources, a scenario that will make the water to have less concentrates that would have otherwise polluted it. Forage regeneration is expected to pick up within the next one month hence improving the quantity and quality of available pastures and browse. This will lead to recovery of livestock body condition hence translating in to improved livestock productivity in terms of live carcass weight, milk production among others. Livestock prices are likely to start increasing due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Morever, farmers are highly unlikely to release their animals to the markets following the onset of the rains as they will use the opportunity to fatten their existing stocks as well as for breeding purposes, a factor that will reduce supply of animals to the markets and creating shortages. On the other hand, cereal prices will continue to remain high due to shortages of the commodities in the local markets. Consequentlt, marginal improvement in terms of trade is expected due to the anticipated increase in livestock prices. Food consumption gaps are likely are likely to get less as household milk production and consumption is expected to improve.. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. Rehabilitation of critical water facilities to be done in order to enhance water access and availability in the county. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Prepositioning of supplies for the management of malnutrition cases should be undertaken especially in the pastoral areas that are witnessing rising cases of malnutrition. Support upscaling of Intergrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR should be enhanced. Sustained security survailance in the county with the aim of minimizing confict that is resulting from livestock migration among pastoral communities . Support livelihood activities such as pasture stablisgment and conservation in order to enhnce forage availability. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Input subsidy support such as fertilizers, seeds and fuel to support vulnerable households to undertake farmig activities as they take advantage of the ongoing rains. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Review and update drought esponse contingency plans, incorporating lessons learnt in responding to the just ended drought event.",
            "Baringo 2023 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2023 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for December 2023 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators There county mostly experienced dry spells during the month under review. The Vegetation greenness as depicted by the VCI was above normal The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70-90 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) . Production indicators: The forage condition was good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was good Milk production was normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were improving but still below Distances to water sources for households were normal Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was still above the long term mean. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 62.35 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 70-90 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The county experienced dry spells during the month under review, signifying the cessation of the short rains season. Amount of rains received were significantly very low compared to the long-term average (LTA) and this was mostly in some pockets found in the highland regions (Figure 1 and 2). However, the rainfall amount received was still within the seasonal range as captured in Figure three. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec.2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 2:Temparal distribution Figure 2: Spatial distribution Barringo rainfall Maximum Minimum Figure 3:Rainfall trend 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was above normal for all the wards apart from Loyamorok, Emining, Mogotio, Koibatek and Maji Mazuri wards which had normal vegetation greenness (Figure 4 and 5). The improvement in vegetation condition was contributed to by the enhanced rains that the county received during the short rains season. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture Pasture conditions were good in the Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones while fair in the Marginal mixed and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, pasture conditions were mainly poor and this was mainly contributed by the presence of invasive species which have prevented regeneration of natural vegetation that is palatable to livestock. Uncontrolled grazing practices has also greatly contributed to the disappearance of the natural vegetation in Pastoral areas. The pastures are likely to last for two to three months in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones while in the Marginal mixed and Agro-pastoral areas, the pastures are likely to last for less than two months. Browse Browse condition was good both in quality and quantity in all livelihood zones and was expected to last up to the next rainfall season. The current condition of browse was normal when compared to a typical year. Figure 5: Ward l level VCI Figure 4: County VCI 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The main water sources in the county during the month under review were traditional river wells, pansdams and rivers, which was normal at this time of the year and this was contributed by good recharge of these sources following good rainfall performance in the last two months (Figure 6). Most water pans and dams were at 70 to 90 percent full while river flows were good. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and over three months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization There was a slight increase of eight percent in trekking distances from households to watering points in comparison to the previous month and this was mainly attributed to decline in rainfall performance during the month under review (Figure 7). The trekking distances were below LTA by 65 percent but falling within the seasonal range. Pastoral livelihood zone had the largest trekking distance of 2.8 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the least trekking distance of 1.9 km. Water Sources-December 2023 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 6: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Km Household Water Distances - December 2023 Figure 7: Household trekking distances 2.2.3 Livestock access There was a marginal increase of about seven percent in trekking distances from grazing areas to watering points in comparison to the previous month to stand at 6.5 km (Figure 8). The increment was attributed to reduced rainfall performance in the month under review hence herders had to move their animals to sources that were more stable in terms of availability and access. The current trekking distances were almost within the LTA as well as the seasonal range. Pastoral areas had the longest trekking distance which averaged to 3.6 km while Irrigated cropping areas had the least trekking distance of about one kilometer. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return Distance from Grazing Area - December 2023 Figure 8: Grazing distances 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition In comparison to the previous month, there were more animals shifting from fair (BCS3) to good (BCS4) and very good (BCS5) body condition as shown in figure nine. Cattle with fair body condition were mostly found in the Pastoral areas due to poor pasture regeneration but in the rest of the livelihood zones, cattle had good to very good body condition. The current livestock body condition was prompted by availability of good quality forage and water across the livelihood zones. The observed trend will likely continue to persist due to improving forage water availability. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-counties though there were normal endemic cases such as CCPP, LSD among others. 3.1.3 Milk Production There was a marginal decline in milk production by six percent to stand at 1.7 litres per household comparison to the previous month (Figure 10). The decline was mostly observed in the Pastoral areas due to poor pasture regeneration. However, the production level was above the LTA by 12 percent and was falling within the seasonal range. The highest production was observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 1.9 litres while lowest production was in the Agro-pastoral zone at less than a litre. Production trend is likely to start declining due to the anticipated dry spells in the next one month. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Harvesting of short-term crops such as tomatoes, water melons among others is ongoing in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones. In the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, harvesting of green grams was ongoing. Livestock body condition for cattle-December 2023 BCS1-Very poor BCS2-Poor BCS3-Fair BCS4-Good Figure 9: Livestock body condition Household Milk Production - December 2023 Figure 10: Milk production 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. Cattle prices were almost stable in comparison to the previous month, retailing at an average of Kshs 18,722 for a medium sized animal, a mere increase of one percent (Figure 11). The prices were above the short-term average (STA) by six percent but falling within the seasonal range. The highest prices were observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 18,545 while the lowest prices were in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 15,000. The price stability was attributed to by the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The average price of a medium sized goat remained stable at Kshs 3,828 though they were above the STA by 39 percent and fell outside the seasonal range (Figure 12). The trend was attributed to by the existing good livestock body condition as well as the high demand for goat animals due to a number of factors including the annual Kimalel goat auction, December festive season and the ongoing initiation cultural ceremonies. The highest prices were observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 4,333 while the lowest prices were in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 2,500. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize Maize prices remained almost stable in comparison to the previous month, registering a marginal decline of two percent to retail at Kshs 75kg (Figure 13). The current prices were above the STA by 29 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. The highest prices were recorded in the Pastoral livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 80kg while the lowest prices were in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 40kg. The trend in maize prices was as a result of the conclusion of the harvesting of the maize crop both within and without the county. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - December 2023 Upper llimit Figure 12: Goat prices Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - December 2023 lower Limit Figure 11:Cattle prices 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) There was a marginal decline in posho prices by two percent in comparison to the previous month, to retail at an average 88kg (Figure 14). The price was above the STA by 31 percent and fell outside the seasonal range. The highest price was observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs 90 while the lowest price was in cropping livelihood zone at an average of Kshs 55. The stability in posho price was attributed to declining maize prices although the high fuel prices have made the commodity to retail at relatively higher prices than usual. 4.2.3 Beans Prices There was a marginal decline in beans prices by two percent to retail at an average of Kshs 179kg, which was above the STA by 33 percent and fell outside the seasonal range (Figure 15). The highest prices were recorded in the Pastoral areas at an average of Kshs 200kg while the lowest prices were observed in the Irrigated cropping zone at an average of Kshs 130.The marginal decline in the price could be attributed to good supplies of the commodity in the local market as 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize prices - December 2023 Figure 13: Maize prices Posho Price (KSH) Posho prices - December 2023 Lower limit Figure 14: Posho prices Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices - December 2023 Figure 15: Beans prices well as availability of other substitutes such as green grams which have been harvested locally. 4. 3 Terms of Trade There was a marginal improvement in terms of trade by two percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a farmer was able to access 51 kg of maize in exchange for one goat (Figure 16). The terms of trade were below the STA by six percent but falling within the seasonal range. Terms of trade were highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at an average of 90 while on the other hand they were lowest in the Agro- pastoral areas at an average of 33. The improvement in terms of trade was attributed to declining maize prices on the one hand as well as increasing livestock prices. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of trade - December 2023 Figure 16: Terms of trade 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption There was a slight decline in household milk consumption by seven percent whereby on average, household members were consuming 1.4 litres of milk per day (Figure 17). The current consumption rate was above LTA by 13 percent and was falling within the seasonal range. Milk consumption was highest in the Pastoral zone at 1.8 litres while lowest in the Agro-pastoral zone at less than one litre. 5.2 Food Consumption Score Food consumption score remained relatively stable in comparison to the previous month across all livelihood zones. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, about 50, 47 and three percent of the sampled households had acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption score respectively while in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, about 90 and 10 percent of the sampled households had acceptable and borderline food consumption score respectively (Figure 18). Households were able to access more food groups in the last few months due to the concluded harvesting season, increased household milk production as well as improved terms of trade in the Pastoral areas which have enabled Pastoral households to have more disposable income that can be used to purchase a variety of food stuff. Household Milk Consumption -December 2023 Figure 17: Milk consumption October November December Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 18: Food consumption score 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status There was a marginal decline of about six percent in comparison to the previous month on the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition which stood at 17 percent in the month under review (Figure 19). Malnutrition cases were above the LTA by 31 percent and were also falling outside the seasonal range. The improving trend in nutrition status was being contributed to by the improving food security situation at the household level as well as the ongoing nutrition outreach services that are being carried out by the County government and partners. 5.3.2 Health 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The current average coping strategy index was at 13.61, a marginal increase percent comparison to the previous month. Households Agro-pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 18 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 15 while cropping employed least coping mechanisms at 3.2 (Figure 20). Generally, there was a reduction in adoption of coping strategies across all livelihood zones. Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index - December 2023 Figure 20: CSI Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -December 2023 lower limit Figure 19: Nutrition status based on MUAC 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was no food relief distribution in the county during the month under review. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household is receiving Kshs 11,200 and the third cycle has been done. This particular phase of the program is coming to an end in December 2023. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three trunches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Kshs 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e. FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO. Water sector Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. They are also carrying out continuous hygiene and sanitation promotion within the villages that are surrounding the boreholes. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Some banditry activities were reported early this month in Ngaratuko area and Chepilat areas in Baringo North whereby a number of livestock were reported to have been stolen. The security machinery has been on the ground trying to restore calm. 7.2 Food security prognosis Food availability is expected to remain stable in the next one month as farmers did conclude harvesting of various crops in the Irrigated, Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. It is expected that most of the households in these zones will be consuming food that is mostly sourced from own production. Forage availability will remain stable and therefore enhancing livestock body condition which will stabilize milk production especially in Mixed farming, Marginal mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Limited stocks of crop residues will also compliment feed availability for livestock. Most of the water sources have undergone good recharge during the short rains season and therefore water availability and access will remain stable across the county. In terms of food access, livestock market prices are expected to remain stable and above the LTA in the next one month due to the prevailing good livestock body condition. On the other hand, cereal prices may not drop further but are expected to remain stable for the next one month. Terms of trade are therefore expected to remain stable and favourable mostly to the Pastoral households. Trekking distances to water points may increase marginally due to the expected dry spells in the next one month but will remain within the seasonal range. Enhanced availability of cereals, pulses, leafy vegetables and milk is expected to have a positive impact on nutrition status of household members in the next one month and therefore the county is expected to record less cases of malnutrition. Water consumption at the household level is expected to remain normal as water availability will remain stable. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness."
        },
        "DEWS_2024": {
            "Baringo 2024 January EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2024 JANUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators Light showers were experienced in 2nd dekad though the county had dry spells most of the time The 3 month VCI index was above normal in most of the wards. The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70-80 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators The forage condition was good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was good Milk production was normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were improving and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were within seasonal range Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition fell within the seasonal range. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 70-80 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, some light showers were observed in the highland areas during the second dekad of the month for a few days (Figure 1). The first and third dekads of the month were relatively dry. The rains were poorly distributed as the low land areas of the Pastoral livelihood zone hardly received any rains. The amount of rains received were within the seasonal range (Figure 2). Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec-2024 RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Temporal rainfall distribution Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 2: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was above normal for the county (Figure 3). Most of the wards in the county had a VCI of above normal greenness other than Silale, Tangulbei, Saimo Soi and Emining wards which had normal vegetation greenness while Loyamorock ward had moderate vegetation deficit (Figure 4). 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture Pasture conditions were poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone and this was attributed to by poor rainfall distribution as well as the presence of invasive species which have smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species. In the Agro-pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, pasture conditions were fair while in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, pastures were in good conditions. The pastures were expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral livelihood zone and four months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. Browse The browse conditions were good across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to the rains that were received in the past few months. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 4: County3 month VCI Figure 4: Ward level 3-month VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources Traditional river wells, rivers and water pans were the major water sources livestock human consumption across livelihood zones (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 70 to 80 percent of their full capacity though in Pastoral areas, there were some pans which had less than 50 percent of their normal volumes and this could be attributed to siltation issues. The current open water sources were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones is fair, which is normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average trekking distances from water points to the households was 3.2km, an increase of 14 percent in comparison to the previous month which was 2.8km (Figure 6). The current distances were below the LTA by 30 percent and were falling within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 3.4 km. The increase in distances was attributed to decrease in water volumes as well as drying up of some water points. Water Sources -January 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 5: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household Water Distances- January 2024 Figure 6: Trekking distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields was at 7.4km, a rise of 13.8 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 7). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 8.4 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances were slightly below the long term mean by three percent but remained within the seasonal range. The increasing trend in return distances was attributed to the diminishing pastures and decreasing water volumes especially in the Pastoral areas. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area- January 2024 Figure 7: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition for cattle was mostly good, (BCS4-5) across livelihood zones though there were some cattle in fair condition (BCS-3) and these were mostly found in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 8). The current status of livestock body condition was attributed to by availability of relatively good forages and water for livestock in all the livelihood zones other than the Pastoral areas. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some livestock incidents were reported in Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties and these were mainly lumpy skin diseases affecting cattle, blue tongue affecting sheep and pestes des petits (PPR) affecting the goats. Vaccination exercise was done in early January supported by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production Livestock Body condition-January 2024 BCS1-Very poor BCS2-Poor BCS3-Fair BCS4-Good BCS5-Very good Figure 8: Livestock body condition Household milk production - January 2024 Figure 9: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review increased by 11.8 percent in comparison to the previous month to stand at 1.9 litres (Figure 9). The current milk production level was above the long-term average by 36 percent and was also above the seasonal range. The improving trend in milk production was attributed to by the high calving rates in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 3.3 litres while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least average of 1.2 litres 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the long rains season. In the Irrigated livelihood zones, farmers were harvesting maize and tomatoes. Some maize farms were affected by fall army warms in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties, leading to reduced yield. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.19,389, which was an increase of 3.6 percent in comparison to the previous month. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.23,333 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,333 (Figure 10). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by 19 percent but was within the seasonal range. The improving prices were attributed to good livestock body condition in the county. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat increased by 3.9 percent from the previous month to retail at Ksh.3,978 currently (Figure 11). The price was above the STA by 54 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,233 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,800. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that have affected market operations particularly in Baringo North sub county. The high goat prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices Baringo County- January 2024 lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle price 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - January 2024 Upper llimit Figure 11:Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices during the month under review was at Kshs. 70, which was a decrease of seven percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 12). The current prices were higher than the short- term average at this time of the year by 16 percent but were almost within the seasonal range. The decreasing maize prices was attributed to the conclusion of harvesting of maize in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zone as well as in the neighbouring counties. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 75 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.50 per 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho prices during the month under review was Kshs 85 per kg, which was a decline of three percent compared to the previous month (Figure 13). The decrease in prices was attributed to the harvesting season for maize in the county and neighbouring counties. The price was above the short-term average by 23 percent and was falling outside the seasonal range slightly. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 89 while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 60kg. 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices- January 2024 Figure 12: Maize prices Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - January 2024 Lower limit Figure 13: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.195 (Figure 14), which was an increase of nine percent in comparison to the previous month. The current prices were above the short-term average by 45 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.198 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.180. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. 4. 3 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were improving whereby a farmer was able to buy 57 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was an improvement of 12 percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The current terms of trade were above the short-term mean by 19 percent and were almost falling within the seasonal range. The improving trend in terms of trade was attributed to better goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 85 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 39. Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices- January 2024 Figure 14: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in - January 2024 Figure 15:Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was stable at 1.7 litres as compared to the previous month and this was an increase of 21percent. The current milk consumption was above the long-term average by 44 percent (Figure 16). The average milk consumption per household was highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.3 litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.1 litre. 5.2 Food consumption Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 39 which was a decline as compared to the previous month at 41. A proportion of six, 40 and 54 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores which was a drop as compared to the previous month. The Pastoral, Irrigated cropping and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones had 35.5, 51.2 and 52.3 average food consumption scores respectively. Households with poor food consumption score were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zones for the past three months (Figure 17). Household Milk Consumption -January 2024 Figure 16:Milk consumption 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 November December January Acceptable Borderline Figure 17: FCS Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 17 percent, which was 2.6 percent higher as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The current rate was stable in comparison to the long term mean and fell within the seasonal range. Some of the cause of malnutrition cases in the county include poor hygiene practices as well as child care practices. The stability in nutrition status could be attributed to the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East,Tiaty west and Baringo south. The situation is expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 13 which was almost stable compared to the previous month. Households in Pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 15 followed by Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at nine while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 3.2 (Figure Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -January 2024 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition status by MUAC Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index- January 2024 Figure 19: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was no food relief distribution in the county during the month under review. 6.1.2 Social protection Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) carried out a cash transfer program targeting 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary is benefiting Kshs 12,000. So far they have received the first tranch of Kshs 6,000. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Kshs 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e. FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO and they also gave out livestock feed supplements to 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary received five bags (50kgs). Water sector Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. They are also carrying out continuous hygiene and sanitation promotion within the villages that are surrounding the boreholes. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. Mass screening of children is also ongoing in Saimo Soi, Barwessa wards in Baringo North sub county, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties as well as Mochongoi and Marigat wards in Baringo South sub county under the support of UNICEF, Hellen Keller International and Baringo county government. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity incidents including banditry attacks were reported during the assessment period under review and Baringo North sub county was the most affected. According to the Multi Agency assessment report on the impact of insecurity in Baringo North sub county conducted in January 2024, insecurity incidents have affected various social dimensions and key sectors including health, education, shelter, Agriculturelivestock among others. Early January 2024 unrest and tension have dominated border points between Baringo North and Tiaty West Counties. This follows recent cattle raidsattempted raids attacks by heavily armed bandits on the second week of January 2024 which happened in several pockets of Baringo North sub count Tension is still high as suspected bandits still roam as per community surveillance in adjacent areas in Tuluk, Yatya and Loruk Sub location disturbed areas in Baringo North. Attempted raids continued in same affected areas especially in parts of Yatya, Kosile, Namba in Saimo Soi ward causing continuous displacements due to fear of more attacks 7.2 Food security prognosis Food availability is expected to remain stable in the next one month as farmers did conclude harvesting of various crops in the Irrigated, Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. It is expected that most of the households in these zones will be consuming food that is mostly sourced from own production. Forage availability will remain stable and therefore enhancing livestock body condition which will stabilize milk production especially in Mixed farming, Marginal mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Limited stocks of crop residues will also compliment feed availability for livestock. Most of the water sources have undergone good recharge during the short rains season and therefore water availability and access will remain stable across the county. In terms of food access, livestock market prices are expected to remain stable and above the LTA in the next one month due to the prevailing good livestock body condition. On the other hand, cereal prices are expected to remain stable for the next one month. Terms of trade are therefore expected to remain stable and favourable mostly to the Pastoral households. Trekking distances to water points may increase marginally due to the expected dry spells in the next one month but will remain within the seasonal range. Enhanced availability of cereals, pulses, leafy vegetables and milk is expected to have a positive impact on nutrition status of household members in the next one month and therefore the county is expected to record less cases of malnutrition. Water consumption at the household level is expected to remain normal as water availability will remain stable. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness.",
            "Baringo 2024 February EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin January 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for February 2024 FEBRUARY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators The month was generally characterized by dry spells with high temperature regimes. The 3-month VCI index was above normal across the county other than few wards The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 40-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators The forage condition was generally good across the county. Livestock body condition was in good condition. Milk production was normal across the county but on a declining trend. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were stable and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were within seasonal range Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition fell slightly above the seasonal range. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 60-80 VCI-3month 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 40-60 80-80 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.28 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.23 16.8 13.29 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance Dry spells were observed during the month under review, with high temperature regimes being felt across the county (Figure 1). The amount of rains received were far less compared to the seasonal range and this was mostly in the third dekad of the month (Figure 2). The normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) was above the long-term average (LTA) but on a declining trend and this could have been caused by the dry spells experienced in January and February. Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo raifall: Jan - Dec.2024 RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Rainfall performance Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 2: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was above normal for the county (Figure 3) and was caused by good rainfall performance during the short rains season. However, Loyamorok and Emining wards were having moderate vegetation deficit for the last two months due to poor rains received. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture During the month under review, the pasture conditions were poor in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and this was attributed to by poor rainfall distribution as well as the presence of invasive species which have smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species. The pastures were fair in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, while in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, pastures were in good conditions. The pastures were expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. Browse The browse conditions were good to fair across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to better regeneration of browse in the past few months. The available browse was expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four to five months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 3: Vegetation condition index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources Traditional river wells, water pans and boreholes were the major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones (Figure 4). Most water pans and dams were at 40 to 60 percent of their full capacity though in Pastoral areas, there were some pans which had less than 50 percent of their normal volumes and this could be attributed to siltation issues. The current open water sources were expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average trekking distances from water points to the households was 3.8km, an increase of 19 percent in comparison to the previous month which was 3.2km (Figure 5). The current distances were below the LTA by 29 percent and were falling within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance Water Sources For Baringo County -February 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 4: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Water trekking distances-February 2024 Figure 5: Trekking distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 of 4.4 km. The increase in distances was attributed to decrease in water volumes as well as drying up of some water points. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was at 7.9km, an increase of seven percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 6). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 8.9 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances were below the long term mean by 10 percent but remained within the seasonal range. The increasing trend in return distances was attributed to by the diminishing pastures and decreasing water volumes especially in the Pastoral areas. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area- February 2024 Figure 6: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition for cattle was mostly good to fair (BCS4-3) across the livelihood zones though there were some cattle in poor condition (BCS-2) and these were mostly found livelihood zone and some pockets in Mogotio sub county (Figure 7). The animals in poor conditions was due to poor pasture condition which was caused by poor performance of the rains in these areas during the previous season. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some livestock incidents were reported in Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties and these were mainly lumpy skin diseases affecting cattle, blue tongue affecting sheep and pestes des petits (PPR) affecting the goats. Vaccination exercise was done in early January supported by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review decreased by five percent in comparison to the previous month to stand at 1.8 litres (Figure 8). The current milk production level was above the long-term average by 41 percent and was also above the seasonal range. This trend in milk production was attributed to by the high calving rates during the previous rainfall season. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest production at an average of three litres while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least production averaging at one litre 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the long rains season. In the Irrigated livelihood zones, farmers were harvesting maize and tomatoes. Some maize farms were affected by fall army warms in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties, leading to reduced crop yield. Livestock Body condition Baringo County-February 2024 Figure 7: Livestock body condition Household Milk Production- February 2024 Figure 8: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.19,185, which was a marginal decrease of 3.6 percent in comparison to the previous month. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.25,333 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The price was above the short-term average (STA) by 22 percent as well as being above the seasonal range (Figure 9). The good prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat increased by three percent from the previous month to retail at Ksh.4,106 currently (Figure 10). The price was above the STA by 54 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The prices were highest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs. 4,321 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,600. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone were attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that have affected market operations particularly Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices Baringo County- February 2024 lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle prices 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County - February 2024 Upper llimit Figure 10:Goat price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 in Baringo North sub county. The high goat prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices during the month under review was at Kshs. 74, which was an increase of five percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 11). The current prices were higher than the short- term average at this time of the year by 19 percent and were falling slightly outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices can be attributed to decline in maize stocks at household level as well as hoarding of maize by some traders in anticipation of higher prices in the coming months. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 80 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.50 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- February 2024 Figure 11: Maize price Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices Baringo County- February 2024 Lower limit Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 The average posho prices during the month under review was Kshs 85 per kg, which was stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 12). The current stability in prices was attributed to the harvesting season for maize in the county and neighbouring counties. The price was above the short-term average by 21 percent and was falling slightly outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 90kg while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 60kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.193, which was a slight decrease of one percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13). The current prices were above the short-term average by 41 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.198 while the Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.170. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity yields following failure of the previous rainfall seasons. 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, a farmer was able to buy 57 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 14). The current terms of trade were above the short- term mean by 22 percent and were almost falling within the seasonal range. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to increasing prices relative to cereal prices. cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 82 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 35. Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices Baringo County- February 2024 Figure 13: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in Baringo County - February 2024 Figure 14: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.6 litres, a decline of six percent in comparison to the previous month. The current milk consumption was above the long-term average by 40 percent and was still falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 15). Milk consumption rate was highest in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 2.8 litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at less than a litre. 5.2 Food consumption Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 40.5 which was a slight improvement as compared to the previous month at 39. A proportion of four, 41 and 55 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores which was a decline as compared to the previous month. The Pastoral, Irrigated cropping and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones had 37.2, 51 and 53 average food consumption scores respectively. Households with poor food consumption score were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zones for the past three months, averaging at five percent by February (Figure 16). December January February Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 16: Food consumption score Household Milk Consumption Baringo County-February 2024 Figure 15: Milk consumption Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 19.53 percent, which was 11 percent higher as compared to the previous month (Figure 17). The current rate was high in comparison to the long term mean and slightly outside the seasonal range. Some of the cause of malnutrition cases in the county include poor hygiene practices as well as child care practices. This increase in malnutrition cases could have been contributed by a decline in milk consumption at the household level over the same period. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index (CSI) was at 13.29 which was an increase as compared to the previous month. Households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed coping strategies at 19 followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at 14 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.9 (Figure 18). Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -February 2024 lower limit Figure 17: Nutrition status by MUAC Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index - February 2024 Figure 18: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was no food relief distribution in the county during the month under review. 6.1.2 Social protection Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) carried out a cash transfer program targeting 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary is benefiting Kshs 12,000. So far they have received the first tranch of Kshs 6,000. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. The project components include livestock feed supplementation that is targeting nine wards, vaccination against CCPP targeting 10 wards, restoration of tree cover through fruit trees in Bartabwa ward, restoration of rangeland through pasture reseeding in nine wards and rehabilitation and repair of critical water facilities in Marigat ward. The project is jointly funded by the Government of Kenya and the World Bank for a three-year period. This year the project is estimated to cost about Kshs 67 million. The county is also carrying out nutrition sensitive and food utilization initiatives supported by S.H.A and World Food Program whereby a total of 25,000 beneficiaries are being targeted at a cost of Kshs 300 million. The program objective is to have increased household food nutrition and stability. Vaccination of livestock against notifiable diseases i.e. FMD, CCPP, PPR, LSD, Anti-rabies, (40,000 Cattle (FMD) 40,000 shoats-CCPP, 30,000 Cattle (LSD) 5,000 Dogs (Rabies), 125,000 shoats (PPR) supported by S.H.A and FAO and they also gave out livestock feed supplements to 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary received five bags (50kgs). Water sector Kenya Red Cross is undertaking the upgrade of Bebogoi and Chemutung boreholes community water project. They have also carried out hygiene and Sanitation promotions which has been Integrated with ongoing integrated medical outreaches. Water Treatment Chemicals (PURR, Aqua Tabs) have also been received and will be distributed to beneficiaries. Capacity building on Sustainable water management and Catchment protection is also going on with the support of World Vision, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF targeting 2,130 households. The Kenya Red Cross, through the support of USAID-BHA is upgrading and repairing five strategic community water supplies and they include Sandai borehole in Baringo South, Konoshoto borehole in Mogotion, Kasilangwa borehole in Tiaty East, Nataan borehole in Baringo North and Chemolingot borehole in Tiaty West. Through the support of the national government, Kenya Red Cross is also repairing an additional four water facilities which are in Belaitat in Mogotio, Kapau, Seretion and Kaskaram in Tiaty West sub county. They are also carrying out continuous hygiene and sanitation promotion within the villages that are surrounding the boreholes. Health and Nutrition Maternal infant and young child feeding nutrition in emergencies survey is ongoing in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South. Integrated health and nutrition outreaches were carried out by Kenya Red Cross in 55 sites (10 in Tiaty East, 10 in Tiaty West, 10 in Baringo North, 10 in Baringo South and 15 in Mogotio. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 The Kenya Red Cross through UNFPA-CERF support, is also supporting reproductive health and gender- based violence. Red Cross is also supporting capacity building of health care workers on clinical management of rape. Mass screening of children is also ongoing in Saimo Soi, Barwessa wards in Baringo North sub county, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties as well as Mochongoi and Marigat wards in Baringo South sub county under the support of UNICEF, Hellen Keller International and Baringo county government. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity incidents including banditry attacks were reported Baringo North sub county mostly in Saimo Soi ward. According to the Multi Agency assessment report on the impact of insecurity in Baringo North sub, insecurity incidents have affected various social dimensions and key sectors including health, education, shelter, Agriculturelivestock among others. Unrest and tension have dominated border points between Baringo North and Tiaty West Counties. This follows recent cattle raidsattempted raids attacks by heavily armed bandits which happened in several pockets of Baringo North sub count. Tension is still high as suspected bandits still roam as per community surveillance in adjacent areas in Tuluk, Yatya and Loruk Sub locations. Attempted raids continued in same affected areas especially in parts of Yatya, Kosile, Namba in Saimo Soi ward causing continuous displacements due to fear of more attacks 7.2 Food security prognosis Food availability is expected to remain stable in the next one month as farmers did conclude harvesting of various crops in the Irrigated, Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. It is expected that most of the households in these zones will be consuming food that is mostly sourced from own production. Forage availability will remain stable and therefore enhancing livestock body condition which will stabilize milk production especially in Mixed farming, Marginal mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Limited stocks of crop residues will also compliment feed availability for livestock. Most of the water sources have undergone good recharge during the short rains season and therefore water availability and access will remain stable across the county. In terms of food access, livestock market prices are expected to remain stable and above the LTA in the next one month due to the prevailing good livestock body condition. On the other hand, cereal prices are expected to remain stable for the next one month. Terms of trade are therefore expected to remain stable and favourable mostly to the Pastoral households. Trekking distances to water points may increase marginally due to the expected dry spells in the next one month but will remain within the seasonal range. Marginal increase in malnutrition cases may be observed in the next one month due to reduction in household milk consumption but the ongoing intervention measures will ensure that the cases are contained. Water consumption at the household level is expected to remain normal as water availability will remain stable. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin February 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. 8.1.6 Social protection Upscaling of humanitarian assistance to victims of banditry attacks in Saimo Soi ward, Baringo North sub county. The displaced populations require immediate food and non-food assistance to alleviate their suffering.",
            "Baringo 2024 March EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2024 MARCH EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators Light showers were experienced towards the end of the month The 3-month VCI index was above normal in most of the wards. The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 40-60 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators The forage condition was generally good in both quality and quantity Livestock body condition was good Milk production was normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were stable and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were within seasonal range Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above LTA. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 40-60 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.18 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 16.9 13.37 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance Dry spells were observed during the better part of the month under review apart from a few isolated light showers that were experienced towards the end of the month (Figure 1). The amount of the rains received were significantly low compared to the long-term average (LTA) while distribution in time and space was poor (Figure 2). Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2024) RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Rainfall performance Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 2: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was above normal for the county (Figure 3) which was attributed to the enhanced rains received during the short rains season. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture During the month under review, the pasture conditions were poor in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and this was attributed to by poor rainfall distribution as well as the presence of invasive species which have smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species. The pastures were fair in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, while in the Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, pastures were in good conditions. The pastures were expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and two to three months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. In the Irrigated zone, cattle were being supplemented with crop residues from the farms after conclusion of harvesting of various crops. Browse The browse conditions were good to fair across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to better regeneration of browse in the past few months. The available browse was expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four to five months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. With the onset of the long rains season, browse condition is expected to improve further in the coming months. Figure 3: VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources Boreholes, rivers, water pansdams and traditional river wells were the main sources of water during the month under review, which was normal. (Figure 4). Most water pans and dams were at 40 to 60 percent of their full capacity though in Pastoral areas, there were some pans which had less than 50 percent of their normal volumes and this could be attributed to siltation issues and high evapotranspiration rate. The current open water sources were expected to last for one to two months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and four months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average trekking distances from water points to the households increased by 29 percent in comparison to the previous month to stand at 4.9 km although it was below the LTA by 17 percent (Figure 5). The increment was caused by drying up of some water pans due to the prevailing high day time temperatures. The highest trekking distances were observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at 5.4 km while Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones posted 4.2 km and one kilometre respectively. Water Sources for Baringo County -March 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 4: Main water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household water trekking distances-March 2024 Figure 5: Household trekking distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 2.2.3 Livestock access The average return distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was at 8.1km, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 6). The distances were below the LTA by 14 percent but remained within the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest distance at nine kilometers while the Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones had 6.4km and 2.0 km respectively. The increasing trend in return distances was attributed to the diminishing pastures and decreasing water volumes especially in the Pastoral areas although this may change with the onset of the long rains season. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area:March 2024 Figure 6: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Most of the cattle across various livelihood zones were in good body condition (BCS3-81) although there animals with fair body condition (BCS2-15) in the Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones (Figure 7). The rest of the livestock species were in good to very good body condition contributed by availability of good forage. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some livestock incidents were reported in Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties and these were mainly lumpy skin diseases affecting cattle, blue tongue affecting sheep and pestes des petits (PPR) affecting the goats. Vaccination exercise was done in early January to February supported by FAO, S.H.A and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production The average milk produced per household per day during the month under review decreased by 11 percent in comparison to the previous month to stand at 1.6 litres (Figure 8). However, production level was still above the long-term average by 36 percent and was also above the seasonal range. The above normal range Livestock Body condition-March 2024 Figure 7: Livestock body condition Household Milk Production - March 2024 Figure 8: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 in milk production was attributed to by the high calving rates and improved cattle breeds in all livelihood zones although the declining trend can be attributed to reduced pasture availability particularly in the Pastoral areas. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 1.5 litres while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least average of 1 litre 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Most of the farmers have prepared their farms in readiness for planting once the long rains start, In the Irrigated zone, tomato harvesting was going on well. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle remained relatively stable at Kshs 19,259 when compared to the previous month (Figure 9). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by 29 percent with the Irrigated livelihood zone posting the highest price at an average of Kshs 28,000 while Agro-pastoral zone had the least price at an average of Kshs 14,000. The stability in cattle price was attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat declined slightly by five percent to retail at Kshs 3,896 but was still above the STA and falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 10). The price drop could have been attributed by market closures within the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones following increased insecurity incidents. The highest price observed cropping zone at Kshs 4,200 while the lowest price was observed in Agro-pastoral zone at Kshs 2,600. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - March 2024 lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle prices 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat prices - March 2024 Upper llimit Figure 10:Goat price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices during the month under review was at Kshs. 67kg, which was a decline of nine percent in comparison to the previous month though they were still above STA by six percent (Figure 11). The decline in maize price was partly attributed to increased maize supplies from the neighbouring counties. The highest price was observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs 71 while the lowest price was in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs 50. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The average posho prices during the month under review was Kshs 78kg, which was a decline of eight percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 12). The price was above the STA by eight percent and was slightly falling outside the seasonal range. The highest price was registered in Pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs 83kg while the lowest price was observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Kshs 50kg. 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices : March 2024 Figure 11: Maize price Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices- March 2024 Lower limit Figure 12: Posho price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs 198kg, which was an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 13). The price was above STA by 40 percent and was still falling outside the seasonal range. Prices were highest in both Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at Kshs 200-205kg and lowest in the Irrigated cropping at Kshs 157kg. 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, terms of trade improved by two percent compared to the previous month, implying that households were able to access 58kg of maize in exchange for one goat (Figure 14). The terms of trade were above STA by 31 percent but falling within the seasonal range. Terms of trade were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 85 and poorest in Agro-pastoral zone at 39. Beans Price (KSH) Beans prices- March 2024 Figure 13: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in - March 2024 Figure 14: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day declined slightly by six percent compared to the previous month although the consumption rate was still above the LTA and falling outside the seasonal range. (Figure 15). The highest milk consumption rate was observed in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 2.3 litres with the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas recording the lowest consumption rate at one litre. 5.2 Food consumption On average, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of about 49 percent, with the rest of the households having 44 percent and six percent of borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. Generally, the trend has been maintained for the last three months with Pastoral livelihood zone having a significant population that does not have acceptable food consumption which was at 51 percent and eight percent for borderline and poor food consumption scores respectively (Figure 16). Household milk consumption -March 2024 Figure 15: Milk consumption January February March Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 16: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 21 percent, which was an increase of eight percent compared to the previous month (Figure 17). Malnutrition cases were above the LTA by 25 percent and had moved outside the seasonal range. There were more cases of malnutrition in the Pastoral livelihood zone compared to other zones and this could be attributed to reduced milk intake at the household level. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) which was mostly in form of flue and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 13.37 which was stable as compared to the previous month. Agro-pastoral zone had the largest CSI at 19 while the Irrigated Cropping zone had the least CSI at 2.5 (Figure 18). Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -March 2024 lower limit Figure 17: Nutrition status by MUAC Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index - March 2024 Figure 18: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Food interventions targeting victims of insecurity in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties were carried out. About 2,617 people were assisted with relief food (Rice and beans) from the national government. The Kenya Red cross further assisted 1,000 persons with assorted food items within the disturbed areas. 6.1.2 Social protection Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) carried out a cash transfer program targeting 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary is benefiting Kshs 12,000. So far, they have received the first tranch of Kshs 6,000. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include bee keeping, breed improvement, pasture establishment among others. The National and County government are coordinating the distribution of subsidized fertilizer to registered farmers across the county. Coffee seedlings and sun flower seeds are also being distributed to the selected beneficiaries. There was livestock vaccination activity that was supported by Self Help Africa targeting LSD (2,061 cattle), PPR (5,418 goats) and enterotoxaemia (2,548 animals) diseases Health and Nutrition Red Cross supported the following interventions targeting areas affected by insecurity incidents. Supports ongoing Integrated Outreaches in 8 sites targeting displaced families integrated with PSS SRH services 1500 sanitary pads distributed 1000 bar of soaps distributed Water Treatment given out to 1200 HHs Provided NFis to 542HHs Provision of 10 hand washing facilities Supports County, National Partners as lead agency for the current response reaching out to displaced HHs Supports emergency referrals, evacuations The county government provided 1000 Mosquito nets to the affected victims of insecurity. Integrated Outreach programs were also done through Beyond Zero Truck . Peace and Security Establishment of GSU camp in Kosile to assist in piece restoration Opening up of access roads to schools e.g Ngaratuko Pry sch thro food for work which will ease security patrols. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 Water and sanitation Interpeace provided one tank with a capacity of 1000 litres at Moinonin IDP camp. Save the Children assisted in water trucking to Moininin IDP camp while the County government assisted in water trucking in other IDP camps. Rehabilitation of boreholes supported by County government and the Kenya Red Cross is ongoing across the county while drilling of new boreholes is being supported by Hope water. Capacity building on sustainable water management was supported by the Kenya Red Cross and County government. Drought risk management Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa did carry out ward level contingency planning (PDRA) in Mogotio, Kisanana, Mukutani, Tangulbei and Bartabwa wards. The exercise led to the establishment of ward DRR committees which will be handling and coordinating disaster risk reduction issues at the ward level. Baringo NDMA office also assisted Elgeyo Marakwert county in establishing their drought contingency plan which will guide county stakeholders in carrying out drought response interventions. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Insecurity incidents including banditry attacks intensified during the reporting month. So far, the incidents were reported in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. In Baringo North, the affected wards were Saimo Soi (Sibilo, Yatia and Bartum locations) and Bartabwa (Ngorora and Kapbosekei locations). In Baringo South the affected wards were Mochongoi, Mukutani and Marigat while in Tiaty West and East sub counties the affected wards were Kollowa and Loyamorok respectively. According to the Multy Agency assessment team led by the Kenya Red Cross, a total of 2,881 persons have been displaced and are living in several IDP camps while 39 fatalities were reported and another 31 persons are nursing gun shot injuries by the end of March. Among the affected persons include children aged under five years of age, persons living with disability, the elderly, chronically ill persons, and malnourished children. The conflict has led to disruption of service delivery from various agencies. Poor sanitation practices have been observed in the affected population and with the onset of rains, outbreak of water borne diseases is likely to be observed. Learning in education institutions has been disrupted whereby two secondary schools, 17 primary schools and 18 ECDE centres have been shut down due to insecurity. A number of health facilities have been shut down as the staff have sought refuge elsewhere leaving them unattended. The affected health facilities include Kapturo. Yatya and Rondinin. Akoreyan dispensary in Saimo Soi ward is the only operation health facility in the area and it is being strained by an influx of patients from the disturbed areas. So far, a number of food and none food interventions are being carried out by different agencies to assist the victims as captured in the ongoing interventions. 7.2 Food security prognosis With the onset of the long rains season being expected in first week of April, water situation is expected to improve immediately in terms of access and availability. This will therefore result in reduced trekking distances for both humans and livestock in the next one month. The rains are also expected to boost further regeneration of natural vegetation hence feed availability for livestock is expected to improve. This will in turn translate to improved livestock body condition for all species, resulting in increased livestock productivity. The closure of livestock markets particularly in the Pastoral areas due to increased insecurity incidents is likely to have negative impacts in terms of food access. Livestock production being a key source of household income in these areas, it implies that livestock prices are likely to get suppressed hence denying households a source of income which could have enabled them to purchase food. On the other hand, cereal prices are likely to remain stable due to influx of supplies from other counties. Malnutrition cases are likely to pick up in the Pastoral areas as more food consumption gaps are likely to become more prevalent due to reduced purchasing power as households may find it challenging to access food at the markets following their closure. In the other livelihood zones, availability of leafy vegetables is likely to improve due to the onset of the long rains hence increasing dietary diversity at the household level. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. Continuous Integrated medical Outreaches Prepositioning of Emergency Drugs Nutrition Commodities for use in Outreaches Equipping of Outreach Link facilities, alternate health facilities to handle surge cases Continuous Rapid Assessments due to changing dynamics Standby Ambulances for referrals evacuations WASH suppliers to at least 2000 HHs More Household water treatment chemicals distribution Hygiene and Sanitation education to HHs Schs At least 1500 Dignity kits to girls, women of reproductive age and adolescent boys Displaced 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. Subsidy seed provisions for planting to displaced households in Agro-pastoralMixed farming livelihood zones 8.4.5 Education Relief food supply to at least 25 schools Continuous Security patrols in Schools affected by current insecurity Psycho Social support (PSS) to leaners Teachers Dignity kits to girls and adolescent boys in schools 8.4.6 Social protection Temporary Shelter Items to at least over 2350 households. More Mosquito Nets, blankets and NFIs are also required. Relief food provision to at least 2781 displaced households at least 2,500 host families Unconditional Cash Transfers to at least 2781 HHs affected Integration of MHPSS, SRH in Medical Outreaches Provision of assistive devices to PWDs who lost their devices Central distribution points, most vulnerable should be prioritized Rescue centers should be identified formalized to support rescued orphanedlost children Baringo county drought EWS bulletin March 2024 8.1.6 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. Weekly Disaster Technical Committee review meeting on response status, gaps emerging issues",
            "Baringo 2024 April EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for April 2024 APRIL EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators Enhanced rains were observed whose distribution was good both in space and time. The 3-month VCI index was normal across the county. The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 80-100 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators The forage condition was good across the county Livestock body condition was mostly good Milk production was above normal and stable across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were above LTA and on an improving trend. Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was declining though still above Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall (By dekad 2) 70 mm 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 80-100 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 16.9 12.41 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance Heavy downpours were experienced during the month under review particularly in the first and third dekads. The rains intensified in the third dekad especially in the highlands with Ravine rainfall station recording 475mm of rains cumulatively in April. There was even distribution of the rains across all the livelihood zones while the temporal distribution was also good (Figure 1 and 2 respectively). By the end of the second dekad, the amount of rains received were within the normal range (Figure 3). Figure 2:Spatial distribution 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec.2024 RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 1:Temporal distribution Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 3: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was normal for the county (Figure 4). This was contributed by the enhanced rains that were received in the county for the last few months. 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture Pasture conditions were fair to good across all livelihood zones in the county with Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones having the best pastures. Pasture conditions were expected to improve further due to the ongoing rains in the county. However, there are pockets within the Pastoral areas that do not have any pastures despite receiving good rains and this was attributed to severe land degradation as well as presence of invasive species that have curtailed pasture regeneration. The most affected wards were Kollowa, Tirioko, Silale and Ribko. The current pastures were expected to last for two to three months in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and four to five months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. Browse The browse conditions were in good to excellent conditions across the various livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to enhanced rains that were received in the county. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and more the six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 4: The three-month County VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources During the month under review, water pans and traditional river wells were the major water sources for both livestock and human consumption across all livelihood zones (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 80-100 percent full following heavy downpours that were received within the water catchment areas. However, some of the water pans were at risk of breaking their embarkment walls due to the ongoing heavy rains as was the case in Tangulbei ward whereby two water pans were affected (Katungura and Chepngati water pans). The water within the open water sources were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The average household trekking distances from water points was 4.1km, a decrease of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month which was 4.9km (Figure 6). The current distances were below the long- term average (LTA) by 24 percent and were falling within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest 2 3 Water sources -April 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 5: Water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household trekking distances- April- 2024 Figure 6: Household trekking distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 average of 4.6 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to the commendable recharge of water sources in the county as a result of the rains being experienced countywide. 2.2.3 Livestock access Average return distances from grazing areas to watering points during the month under review was 6.4 km, which was a decline of 21 percent in comparison to the previous month. The trekking distances were 29 percent below LTA but falling within the seasonal range (Figure 7). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 7.4 km while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The declining trend in return distances was attributed to the regeneration of pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing area : April 2024 Figure 7:Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition for cattle during the month under review had improved as compared to the previous month, which was mostly in good condition (BCS-3) across the livelihood zones though there were some cattle in fair condition (BCS-2) and these were mostly found in parts of Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones (Figure 8). The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to availability of water for livestock and improving pasture condition in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases Some livestock incidents were reported in Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties and these were mainly lumpy skin diseases affecting cattle, blue tongue affecting sheep and pestes des petits (PPR) affecting the goats. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there were no reported cases of drought related mortalities in the county. 3.1.3 Milk Production Livestock body condition -April 2024 Figure 8: Livestock body condition for cattle Household milk production - April 2024 Figure 9: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 There was a slight decline in milk produced at the household level during the month under review which stood at an average of 1.5 litreshouseholdday, a drop of six percent in comparison to the previous month. The production level was still above LTA by 36 percent and was slightly falling outside the seasonal range, which was a desirable scenario compared to a typical year (Figure 9). The current trend in milk production was attributed to by the high calvingkidding rates as well as improved pasture and water availability. Milk production was anticipated to increase further due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest average milk production at two litres while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone had the least production at an average of one litre 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops In the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones majority of the farmers have finished planting their crops with some having started weeding. In the Agro-pastoral and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones the farmers were doing planting of various crops. Flooding of farms was reported in Sandai location in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone as well as Barwessa, Kabutiei and Kapluk locations in the Mixed farming livelihood zone. More flooding of farms was being anticipated to occur due to the ongoing heavy rains in the county and this might reduce the acreage under crop production in flood prone areas. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. Cattle prices during the month under review remained relatively stable in comparison to the previous month whereby the average price per animal was Kshs 19,333. The current cattle price was above the short-term average (STA) by 36 percent and was falling outside the seasonal range, which was a desirable scenario for the Pastoral households. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.26,000 while Agro- pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.12,667 (Figure 10). The good prices were attributed to good livestock body condition in the county and the prices were likely to increase further as the trend in body condition was most likely to be maintained. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices - April 2024 lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle price 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - April 2024 Upper llimit Figure 11:Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat was relatively stable compared to the previous month to retail at Ksh.3,911 (Figure 11). The price was above the STA by 51 percent and falling outside the seasonal range, which was a good outcome for livestock dependent households. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.4,067 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.3,500. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that have affected market operations particularly in Baringo North sub county. Nevertheless, the good goat prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize For the first time in a period of two years, maize prices have dropped below the STA to retail at an average price of Kshs 61kg. In comparison to the previous month, the price dropped by nine percent and was falling below the seasonal range, a scenario that was going to be beneficial for those households that are dependent on maize purchases from the local markets (Figure 12). The current trend in maize prices was attributed to influx of maize held by traders in the local markets as they are sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 66kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest price at Ksh.40kg. 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices- April 2024 Figure 12: Maize prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The current average posho prices dropped by seven percent to retail at an average of Kshs73kg, which was stable as compared to the previous month (Figure 13). The current decline in prices was attributed to the incoming of cheap maize from neighbouring counties and countries. The price was below the short-term average by seven percent and was falling below the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 78kg while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 50kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.178 (Figure 14), which was a decrease of ten percent in comparison to the previous month. The prices were above STA by 24 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.185kg while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.150kg. The high prices were attributed Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - April 2024 Lower limit Figure 13: Posho prices Beans prices- April 2024 Figure 14: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields from the previous seasons but there is an improvement in local market supplies hence leading to a price drop. 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, a farmer was able to buy 64.2 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 58kg (Figure 15). The current terms of trade were above the STA by 57 percent and were almost falling within the seasonal range. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to better goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 102 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 60. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - April 2024 Figure 15: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres which was a decline of seven percent in comparison to the previous month. The consumption rate was above LTA by 40 percent as well as falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 16). Consumption rate was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at one litre. 5.2 Food consumption 5.2.1 Food consumption score Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 40.2 which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 37.37. A proportion of four, 40 and 56 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. The Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 38.6, 45.1 and 46.1 average food consumption scores respectively. Households with poor food consumption score (8) were reported in the February March April Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Household milk consumption-April 2024 Figure 16: Milk consumption Figure 17: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 Pastoral livelihood zone for the past three months (Figure 17), which was an indication that they were experiencing food consumption gaps in terms of meal frequencies and dietary quality. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 19.6 percent, which was seven percent lower as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The current rate was high in comparison to the long term mean and slightly falling outside the seasonal range. Ribko, Komolion, Akoret and Mukutani sentinel sites recorded the highest rates of 37.3,30.6, 30.3 and 21.8 percent respectively all being in the Pastoral livelihood zones. Some of the cause of malnutrition cases in the county include poor hygiene practices as well as child care practices. The situation was expected to improve with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county and anticipated increase in milk production and consumption across livelihood zones. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. Cases of malaria and flue infections were also being reported which was associated with the onset of the rains. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition -April 2024 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition status by MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index (CSI) was at 12.41 which was a decline as compared to the previous month at 13.37. Households Pastoral livelihood zone employed coping strategies followed by Pastoral livelihood zone at eight while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.6 (Figure 19). The decline in CSI is an indication of slight improvement security situation at the household level as household members have reduced adoption of unusual strategies in accessing food such as borrowing, reduced meal sizes, reduction in number of meals among others. Agro pastoral Coping strategyindex - April 2024 Figure 19: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Food interventions targeting victims of insecurity in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties were carried out. About 2,617 people were assisted with relief food (Rice and beans) from the national government. The Kenya Red cross further assisted 1,000 persons with assorted food items within the disturbed areas. 6.1.2 Social protection Food and Agriculture organization (FAO) carried out a cash transfer program targeting 1,000 households whereby each beneficiary is benefiting Kshs 12,000. So far, they have received the first tranch of Kshs 6,000. Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. The Kenya Red Cross is implementing a six months cash transfer program which is funded by USAID-BHA and is targeting 2,859 households, each receiving Kshs 6,539 per month. The program is being implemented in Mogotio, Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include bee keeping, breed improvement, pasture establishment among others. The National and County government are coordinating the distribution of subsidized fertilizer to registered farmers across the county. Coffee seedlings and sun flower seeds are also being distributed to the selected beneficiaries. There was livestock vaccination activity that was supported by Self Help Africa targeting LSD (2,061 cattle), PPR (5,418 goats) and enterotoxaemia (2,548 animals) diseases Health and Nutrition Red Cross supported the following interventions targeting areas affected by insecurity incidents. Supports ongoing Integrated Outreaches in 8 sites targeting displaced families integrated with PSS SRH services 1500 sanitary pads distributed 1000 bar of soaps distributed Water Treatment given out to 1200 HHs Provided NFis to 542HHs Provision of 10 hand washing facilities Supports County, National Partners as lead agency for the current response reaching out to displaced HHs Supports emergency referrals, evacuations The county government provided 1000 Mosquito nets to the affected victims of insecurity. Integrated Outreach programs were also done through Beyond Zero Truck . Peace and Security Establishment of GSU camp in Kosile to assist in piece restoration Opening up of access roads to schools e.g Ngaratuko Pry sch thro food for work which will ease security patrols. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 Water and sanitation Interpeace provided one tank with a capacity of 1000 litres at Moinonin IDP camp. Save the Children assisted in water trucking to Moininin IDP camp while the County government assisted in water trucking in other IDP camps. Rehabilitation of boreholes supported by County government and the Kenya Red Cross is ongoing across the county while drilling of new boreholes is being supported by Hope water. Capacity building on sustainable water management was supported by the Kenya Red Cross and County government. Drought risk management Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa did carry out ward level contingency planning (PDRA) in Mogotio, Kisanana, Mukutani, Tangulbei and Bartabwa wards. The exercise led to the establishment of ward DRR committees which will be handling and coordinating disaster risk reduction issues at the ward level. Baringo NDMA office collaborated with World Vision, Self Help Africa, Kenya Red Cross and County government of Baringo in developing participatory scenario plans for the long rains season whose findings were disseminated to various stakeholders in the county. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement 7.1.1 Insecurity Incidents of insecurity and banditry attacks declined significantly during the reporting period although the impacts from previous incidents are still being felt. So far there are about 3,254 displaced households the majority of him are from Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North. Several strategies have so far been deployed to deal with insecurity challenges including deployment of security personnel as well as engagement of elders from the warring communities. 7.2.2 Floods Incidents of flooding were reported in Baringo South sub county and the most affected wards were Ilchamus and some parts in Marigat ward. A significant acreage of crops was swept away in Ilchamus ward while at least 30 households were marooned and had to be evacuated by rescue agencies. 7.2 Food security prognosis Water access and availability will significantly improve following a good recharge of water sources since the onset of the long rains. This will result in reduced trekking distances to water points hence saving more time that can be directed to other important economic ventures. Water consumption at the household level will also greatly improve hence leading to better utilization of food. Food availability is also expected to improve as milk production will be expected to go up following improvement in livestock body condition which was occasioned by improved pasture and water for livestock. Livestock migrations are expected to be minimal as herders are expected to utilize forage resources that are nearby. Leafy vegetables are also expected to be in plenty and therefore improving dietary diversity at the household level. However, the gains in livestock sector may be eroded by the continued closure of livestock markets in the Pastoral areas due to insecurity challenges hence the affected households may not be able to take advantage of the improved livestock body condition in bargaining for better prices. Moreover, opportunistic livestock diseases may take advantage of the enhanced rains leading to disease outbreak such as CCPP, rift valley fever, worms among others. Incidents of malnutrition at the household level are expected to go down as milk consumption is expected to pick up. Furthermore, availability of leafy vegetables will enrich the household diets hence leading to improved food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. Continuous Integrated medical Outreaches Prepositioning of Emergency Drugs Nutrition Commodities for use in Outreaches Equipping of Outreach Link facilities, alternate health facilities to handle surge cases Continuous Rapid Assessments due to changing dynamics Standby Ambulances for referrals evacuations WASH suppliers to at least 2000 HHs More Household water treatment chemicals distribution Hygiene and Sanitation education to HHs Schs At least 1500 Dignity kits to girls, women of reproductive age and adolescent boys Displaced 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. Subsidy seed provisions for planting to displaced households in Agro-pastoralMixed farming livelihood zones 8.4.5 Education Relief food supply to at least 25 schools Continuous Security patrols in Schools affected by current insecurity Psycho Social support (PSS) to leaners Teachers Dignity kits to girls and adolescent boys in schools 8.4.6 Social protection Temporary Shelter Items to at least over 2350 households affected by insecurity and floods. More Mosquito Nets, blankets and NFIs are also required. Relief food provision to at least 2781 displaced households at least 2,500 host families Unconditional Cash Transfers to at least 2781 HHs affected Integration of MHPSS, SRH in Medical Outreaches Provision of assistive devices to PWDs who lost their devices Central distribution points, most vulnerable should be prioritized Rescue centers should be identified formalized to support rescued orphanedlost children Baringo county drought EWS bulletin April 2024 8.1.6 Drought coordination Formation of a Multi-Agency team to monitor and coordinate flooding rescue efforts in the hot spot areas. Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. Weekly Disaster Technical Committee review meeting on response status, gaps emerging issues especially with regards to floods and insecurity issues.",
            "Baringo 2024 May EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for May 2024 MAY EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators Substantial amount of rains was received during the first dekad of May. The 3-month VCI index was a normal in most of the wards. The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70-80 capacity. The forage condition was good in both quality and quantity Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was mostly good Milk production was above normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were good and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition were slightly above the long term mean but on a declining trend. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month 35-50 Percent Of water in the pans 70-80 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.18 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 17.4 12.65 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance During the month under review, the intensity of the rains declined significantly compared to the previous month, with only substantial amount being recorded in the first dekad of May (Figure 1). The distribution of the rains was fair across the livelihood zones in the county (Figure 2). The total amount of rains received in May were above the long term mean (LTA) but were still within the seasonal range (Figure 3). 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Rainfall-2024 RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 1: Temporal distribution Figure 2: Spatial distribution Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 3: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was projected to be normal for the county and this was as a result of the good rains received in the county since the onset of March-April-May (MAM) season. (Figure 4). 2.1.1 Field observation Pasture The pasture condition has improved across all livelihood zones, this was driven by the fair distribution of rainfall during the season. The pastures were good in the Marginal mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while fair in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The variation in the livelihood zones was due to the slow regeneration of pastures in the Pastoral areas as a result of poor rangeland management. The current pastures were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. Browse The browse conditions were relatively good across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to better regeneration of browse. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and more than six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Figure 4: County VCI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The good rains received in the county led to good recharge of water sources. The major water sources in the county for both domestic and livestock use were rivers, traditional water wells and water pans (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 70-80 percent of their full capacity. The current open water sources were expected to last for four to five months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and over six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The recharge of water sources in the county has led to decrease in the average household trekking distances from watering points to households by 10 percent in comparison to the previous month, which currently stands at 3.7km (Figure 6). The recorded distances were below the LTA by 19 percent and were falling within the seasonal ranges. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of four kilometres. Water Sources For Baringo County -May 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Main water sources Households Distance to Water Source in Household Water Distances in Baringo County- May- 2024 Figure 6; Water trekking distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 2.2.3 Livestock access The average trekking distance for livestock from grazing fields to watering points was at 5.8 km, a decrease of nine percent as compared to the preceding month. These distances were below the long term mean by 24 percent but falling within the seasonal range (Figure 7). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 6.6 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances remained within the seasonal range. The declining trend in return distances was attributed to the regenerating pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return Distance from Grazing Area Baringo county May 2024 Figure 7: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition for cattle during the month had improved as compared to the previous month, which was mostly good (BCS-3) across the livelihood zones though there were some cattle in poor condition (BCS-2) and these were mostly found in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 8). The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to availability of water for livestock and improving pasture condition in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There was no abnormal outbreak of livestock diseases reported during the month. Households only reported the usual endemic diseases such as contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), mange, helminthiasis, heartwater, enterotoxaemia and sheep and goat pox across the livelihood zones. 3.1.3 Milk Production During the month under review, the average milk produced per household per day was 1.9 litres, which was an increase of 27 percent in comparison to the previous month. Milk production was above the long-term average by 61 percent and fell outside the seasonal range which was a desirable outcome (Figure 9). Negligible milk production was reported in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, and this was occasioned by the absence of livestock in the homesteads due to the heightened insecurity incidents. Increased milk production was accredited to the improving livestock body conditions in all livelihood zones. Milk production was anticipated to increase due to the improving livestock body condition across all livelihood zones. Irrigated cropping zone had the highest milk production at two litres while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least production at 1.8 litres. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops The maize planted in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are at knee high while most of the beans crops were destroyed by the heavy rains received earlier in the county. Tomatoes in the Irrigated zone are at harvesting stage. Livestock Body condition Baringo County-May 2024 Figure 8: Livestock body condition Household Milk Production Baringo County- May 2024 Figure 9:Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.20,074, which was a marginal increase of four percent in comparison to the previous month. The current price was above the short-term average (STA) by 34 percent as well as being above the seasonal range, a scenario that was favourable to Pastoral households as this translates to more incomes (Figure 10). Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.32,667 while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.14,000. The good prices were attributed to good livestock body condition in the county; the prices are likely to increase further due the anticipated further improvement in pasture conditions that will result in improved livestock body conditions. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat was retailing at Kshs 4,139, an increment of six percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 11). The price was above the STA Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices Baringo County- May 2024 lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle price 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County - May 2024 Upper llimit Figure 11: Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 by 58 percent as well as the seasonal range, which was a desirable situation more so for the Pastoral households. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 4,150 and lowest in Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.3,667. The low prices in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone were attributed to the frequent insecurity incidents that have affected market operations particularly in Baringo North sub county. Never the less, the good goat prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices during the month under review was at Kshs. 61, which was stable in comparison to the previous month (Figure 12). The current price was below the short-term mean by 10 percent and fell below the seasonal range. The declining prices were attributed to the maize held by traders as they are sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 66 per kg while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.45 per kg. 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- May 2024 Figure 12: Maize price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The current average posho prices were stable in comparison to the previous month, retailing at Kshs 72kg (Figure 13). The current stability in prices was attributed to the incoming cheap maize from neighbouring counties and countries. The price was below the short-term average by 12 percent and was falling below the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 78kg while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 55kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.173, which was a decrease of three percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 14). The current prices were above the short-term average by 11 percent and falling outside the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.182kg while the Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.140kg. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following failure flower abortion in the previous seasons. Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices Baringo County- May 2024 Lower limit Figure 13: Posho prices Beans Price (KSH) Beans Prices Baringo County- May 2024 Figure 14: Beans prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, a farmer was able to buy 68 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was an improvement of six percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 15). The current terms of trade were above the short-term mean by 70 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to better goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 92 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 62. Terms of trade-May 2024 Figure 15: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.7 litres, which was an increase of 21 percent in comparison to the previous month. The current milk consumption was above the long-term average by 57 percent and was falling outside the seasonal range (Figure 16). Milk consumption was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at less than a litre. 5.2 Food consumption Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 41.2 which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 40.2. A proportion of 3.3, 23.3 and 64.4 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores. The Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 39.6, 43.7 and 50.4 average food consumption scores respectively. Households with significant poor and borderline food consumption scores were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zones for the past three months although they have gone down by the end of May. (Figure 17). Generally, more households moved to acceptable consumption scores as compared to the previous month and this was attributed to the availability of milk, leafy vegetables and other food varieties across the livelihood zones. Household Milk Consumption Baringo County-May 2024 Figure 16: Milk consumption March April Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 17: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 18 percent, which was six percent lower as compared to the previous month (Figure 18). The current rate was high in comparison to the long term mean but fell within the seasonal range. Ribko, Akoret and Komolion sentinel sites recorded the highest rates of 36.7,30.6 and 25.23 respectively all being in the Pastoral livelihood zones. Some of the cause of malnutrition cases in the county include poor hygiene practices as well as child care practices. The situation is expected to improve with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county and anticipated increase in milk production and consumption across livelihood zones. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The average coping strategy index was at 12.65 which was relatively stable as compared to the previous month at 14.41. Households in Pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 14.2 followed by Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 11.8 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least coping mechanisms at 2.6(Figure 19). Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Chldren at risk of malnutrition in Baringo County -May 2024 lower limit Figure 18: Nutrition status based on MUAC Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index Baringo County- May 2024 Figure 19: CSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was no general food relief reported during the month under review although victims of floods in Baringo South were assisted with various food and nonfood items. 6.1.2 Social protection Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. WFP is planning to do an extension of cash transfer program for another six months. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture and Livestock Sector The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include bee keeping, breed improvement, pasture establishment among others. Water and sanitation Interpeace provided one tank with a capacity of 1000 litres at Moinonin IDP camp. Save the Children assisted in water trucking to Moininin IDP camp while the County government assisted in water trucking in other IDP camps. Rehabilitation of boreholes supported by County government and the Kenya Red Cross is ongoing across the county while drilling of new boreholes is being supported by Hope water. Capacity building on sustainable water management was supported by the Kenya Red Cross and County government. Drought risk management Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa reviewed the county drought contingency plan. The exercise led to the updating of the contingency plan that will help in drought response interventions. Baringo NDMA office collaborated sensitized top county management on the EDE 11 framework as well as the validation of the same in Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet counties. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Incidents of insecurity and banditry attacks declined significantly during the reporting period although the impacts from previous incidents are still being felt. So far there are about 3,254 displaced households the majority of him are from Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North. Several strategies have so far been deployed to deal with insecurity challenges including deployment of security personnel as well as engagement of elders from the warring communities. 7.2 Floods Flooding incidents were reported during the first week of May which was due to the heavy rains that were received in the third dekad of April and the first dekad of May. A number of livestock animals were swept away including about 218 cattle, 1,964 goats, 447 sheep and 19 camels, with the most affected sub counties being Tiaty East and Baringo North. Also, about 1,630, 876 and 160 hectares of crop land for Baringo South, Baringo North and Eldama Ravine sub counties were affected respectively, leading to loss of various crops including maize, seed maize and other horticultural crops. 7.3 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to stay stable as most of the water sources were adequately recharged by the long rains hence trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock will remain below LTA. Water consumption at the household level will also greatly improve hence leading to better utilization of food. Food availability is also expected to improve as milk production will be expected to remain above LTA due to sustained good animal body condition. Livestock migrations are expected to be minimal as herders are expected to utilize forage resources that are nearby. Leafy vegetables are also expected to be in plenty and therefore improving dietary diversity at the household level. Food access is expected to improve especially for pastoral households due to continued improvement in terms of trade whereby households will be accessing more cereals and other food stuff as a result of enhanced household incomes emanating from livestock sales. Incidents of malnutrition at the household level are expected to go down as milk consumption is expected to pick up. Furthermore, availability of leafy vegetables will enrich the household diets hence leading to improved food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases following the onset of the rains. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 REFERENCE TABLES Table 1: Drought Phase Classification Normal Alert Alarm Emergency All Environmental Agricultural and pastoral indicators are within the seasonal ranges Meteorological drought indicators move outside seasonal ranges Environmental and at least two production indicators are outside Long term seasonal ranges All Environmental, Metrological and Production indicators are outside normal ranges. Recovery: The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms; local economies starting to recover Table 2: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Color SPI Values Metrological Drought Category 1.5or more Wet Conditions 0 to 1.5 No drought -0.1 to -0.99 Mild drought -1 to -1.99 Severe drought -2 and less Extreme drought Table 3: Vegetation Condition Index Values (VCI) Color VCI values Agricultural Drought Category 3-monthly average 35 to 50 No agricultural drought 21 to 34 Moderate agricultural drought 10 to 20 Severe agricultural drought Extreme agricultural drought Table 4: Livestock Body Condition Level Classification Characteristics (this describes majority of the herd and not individual isolated Stock) Normal Very Fat Tail buried and in fat Fat, Blocky. Bone over back not visible Very Good Smooth with fat over back and tail head Good smooth appearance Moderate Moderate. Neither fat nor thin Stressed Borderline fore-ribs not visible. 12th 13th ribs visible Critical Thin fore ribs visible Emerciated Very thin no fat, bones visible Emaciated, little muscle left Baringo county drought EWS bulletin May 2024 Definition of Early Warning Phases The EW phases are defined as follow: NORMAL: The normal phase occurs whenbiophysicaldrought indicators (VCI and SPI) show no unusual fluctuations hence remain within the expected ranges for the time of the year in a given livelihood zone, division or county ALERT: The alert phase is when either the vegetation condition index or the standard precipitation index (biophysical indicators) show unusual fluctuations below expected seasonal ranges within the whole countysub-county or livelihood zones. ALARM: The alarm phase occurs when both biophysicaland at least three production indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges affecting the local economy. The production indicators to be considered are livestock body condition, crop condition, milk production, and livestock migration and livestock mortality rate. If access indicators (impact on market, access to food and water) move outside the normal range, the status remains at alarm but with a worsening trend. Proposed access indicators include ToT, price of cereals, availability of cereals and legumes, and milk consumption. The trend will be further worsening when also welfare indicators (MUAC and CSI) start moving outside the normal ranges. EMERGENCY: In the emergency phase, all indicators are outside of normal ranges; local production systems have collapsed within the dominant economy. The emergency phase affects asset status and purchasing power to extent that seriously threatens food security. As a result, coping strategy index, malnutrition (MUAC) and livestock mortality rates move above emergency thresholds RECOVERY: Environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms. The drought phase must have reached at least Alarm stage. Recovery starts after the end of drought as signaled by the environmental indicators returning to seasonal norms while production indicators are still outside the normal seasonal range but local economies start to recover. The status changes to normal once the bio physical and production indicators are back to normal range.",
            "Baringo 2024 June EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 National Drought Management Authority Baringo County Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2024 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Drought Phase: Normal- Stable Biophysical indicators The county had dry spells for the better part of the month. Vegetation condition as measured by NDVI was above LTA, implying good conditions The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70-80 capacity. The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was fair to good Milk production was above normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were good and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition were slightly above the seasonal range. Copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month Percent Of water in the pans 70-80 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.26 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households-trekking distance (Km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status of children 6- months malnutrition numbered MUAC ( at risk) 20.34 17.4 11.74 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWeeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingwe eding Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The ceasation of the long rains season of March to May ended during the third dekad of May, which was normal. The period under review experienced dry spells especially during the second and third dekad of June (Figure 1). However, there were few days of light showers especially in the highland areas with uneven distribution (Figure 2). By the end of the third dekad, the total amount of rains received were below the long term average (LTA) but within the seasonal range (Figure 3). Figure 1: Spatial distribution 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Jan - Dec.2024 RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Temporal distribution Rainfall Performance Baringo County 2024 UPPER LOWER Figure 3: Rainfall trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition The vegetation greenness as depicted by the three-month vegetation condition index was normal for the county and has improved as compared to the previous month (Figure 4) (Figure 5). This was contributed by the enhanced rains that were received in the county for the last few months. However, the greenness is likely to decline with the current dry weather conditions being experienced in the county. 2.1.1 Field observation Forage The pasture condition has improved across all livelihood zones, which was attributed to the enhanced rains received in the last season. The pastures were good in the Marginal mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while fair in the Pastoral livelihood zone. The variation in pasture conditions across livelihood zones was due to the slow regeneration in the Pastoral areas as a result of poor rangeland management, presence of invasive species among other reasons. The current pastures were expected to last for three to four months in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones and five months in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones. The browse conditions were relatively good across all the livelihood zones in the county and this was attributed to better regeneration of browse. The available browse was expected to last for four months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and more the six months in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The good rains received in the county led to good recharge of water sources across livelihood zones. The major water sources in the county for both domestic and livestock use were rivers, traditional water wells and water pans which collectively accounted for 69 percent of all the water sources in use (Figure 5). Most water pans and dams were at 70-80 percent of their full capacity. The current open water sources were expected to last for four to five months in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones and over six months in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Water quality and quantity across Pastoral and Water Sources For Baringo County -June 2024 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Figure 4: 3-month VCI Matrix Figure 5: 3-month VCI Graph Figure 6: Water sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was fair, which was normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization The recharge of water sources in the county has led to a marginal decrease in the average household trekking distances from water points by three percent in comparison to the previous month, which currently is at 3.6km (Figure 7). The recorded distances were below the LTA by 13 percent and were falling within the seasonal range. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.2 km and this was attributed to high tensions in the area that made households to travel to secure areas that were far away to access water. 2.2.3 Livestock access The average trekking distance by livestock from grazing fields to watering points was at 5.6km, a decrease of three percent as compared to the preceding month and were below the long term mean by 21 percent (Figure 8). The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 6.2 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres. The current distances remained within the seasonal range. The declining trend in return distances was attributed to the regeneration of pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Households Distance to Water Source in Household Water Distances- June- 2024 Figure 5: Water distances Return Grazing Distance(KM) Return distance from grazing areas: June 2024 Figure 6: Grazing distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition for cattle during the month had improved as compared to the previous month, which was mostly good (BCS-3) across the livelihood zones though there were some cattle in poor condition (BCS-2) and these were mostly found in the Pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 8). The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to availability of water for livestock and improving pasture condition in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock diseases There was no outbreak of notifiable livestock diseases reported during the month. Households only reported the usual endemic cases such as contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), mange, helminthiasis, heartwater, enterotoxaemia and sheep and goat pox across the livelihood zones. 3.1.3 Milk Production During the month under review, the average milk produced per household per day was 2.5 litres in comparison to the previous month, which represented a 32 percent rise. The production level was above the long-term average by 98 percent as well as being above the seasonal range at this time of the year (Figure 10). Production level was lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at an average of 1.4litres and this was occasioned by the minimal numbers of livestock owned by homesteads due to insecurity issues. The current trend was attributed to by the improving livestock body conditions in all livelihood zones and was expected to be observed for the next two months. Pastoral livelihood had the highest production at 2.6 litres which was mostly coming from camels while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the lowest production at 2.3 litres. 3.2 Rain fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of food Crops Livestock Body condition Baringo County-June 2024 Figure 7: Livestock body condition Household milk production- June 2024 Figure 8: Milk production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 The maize planted in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are at tussling stage. Most of the beans were destroyed by the heavy rains received earlier in the county. Tomatoes in the irrigated are at harvesting stage. 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock marketing 4.1.1 Cattle prices. The average price for medium-sized cattle was Ksh.20,966, which was a marginal increase of four percent in comparison to the previous month and were above the seasonal range (Figure 11). Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average prices of Ksh.30,000 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone recorded the least average price of Ksh.15,833. The price was above the short-term average (STA) by 33 percent. The good prices were attributed to good livestock body condition in the county and the trend is expected to be sustained for the next few months. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. Cattle Price (KSH) Cattle prices- June 2024 lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle prices 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat prices - June 2024 Upper llimit Figure 10: Goat prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 During the month under review, the average price of a medium sized goat was stable at Kshs 4,131 as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 4,139 and was above the STA by 55 percent (Figure 12). The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 5,167 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.3,883. The low prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone were attributed to the frequent insecurity incidents that have affected the major livestock market in the sub county. Never the less, the good goat prices were attributed to the prevailing good livestock body condition in the county. 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize The average maize prices during the month under review was at Kshs. 57, which a decrease of seven percent in comparison to the previous month at 61 (Figure 13). The current prices were below the short- term mean by 29 percent, the prices recorded were attributed to the maize held by traders as they are sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 59 per kg while Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg. 4.2.2 Posho (Maize meal) The current average posho prices dropped by five percent in comparison to the previous month to retail at Kshs 68kg (Figure 14). The stability in prices was attributed to the incoming of cheap maize from 100.0 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - June 2024 Figure 11: Maize prices Posho Price (KSH) Posho Prices - June 2024 Lower limit Figure 12: Posho prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 neighbouring counties and countries. The price was below the short-term average by 27 percent and was falling below the seasonal range. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Kshs. 70kg while the Irrigated cropping zone had the least average price of Kshs. 50kg. 4.2.3 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.176, which was a minimal increase of two percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 15). The current prices were above the short-term average by eight percent and falling outside the seasonal ranges slightly. The Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.184 while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.140. The high prices were attributed to scarcity of the commodity due to poor yields following flower abortions caused by excess rains in the last two rainfall seasons. 4. 3 Terms of Trade During the month under review, a farmer was able to buy an average of 72 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 68 (Figure 16). The current terms of trade were above the short-term mean by 93 percent and were falling within the seasonal range at this time of the year. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to better goat prices and decreasing maize prices. Beans Price (KSH) Beans prices - June 2024 Figure 13: Beans prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade - June 2024 Figure 14: Terms of trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 129 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 65. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 2.2 litres in comparison to the previous month, which was an increase of 29 percent. The current milk consumption rate was above the long-term average by 83 percent (Figure 17). The average milk consumption per household was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 2.3 litres and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.4 litre. 5.2 Food consumption 5.2.1 Food consumption score Household milk consumption-June 2024 Figure 15: Milk consumption April Food consumption score Acceptable Borderline Figure 16: Food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 Generally, the county had an acceptable food consumption score of 45.1 which was an improvement as compared to the previous month at 41.2. A proportion of 2.2, 32.2 and 64.6 percent of the sampled households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores. The Pastoral, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had 42.4, 50.6 and 58.2 average food consumption scores respectively. Households with poor food consumption score were reported in the Pastoral livelihood zones for the past three months although the proportions have been declining and is now at a mere two percent by June (Figure 18). Generally, more households moved to acceptable consumption scores as compared to the previous month. The improving food consumption was attributed to the availability of milk, leafy vegetables and other food varieties across the livelihood zones. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month under review was 20.34 percent, which was an increment of seven percent as compared to the previous month (Figure 19). The current rate was high in comparison to the long term mean and slightly outside the seasonal range. The increase in the proportion was due to closure of nutrition outreach sites in parts of Tirioko and Ribkwo wards in Pastoral livelihood zone due to lack of commodities. Akoret (Chepkererat, Kapedo North Kamurio), Ribko and Komolion sentinel sites recorded the highest rates of 62.5,35.6 and 25.89 respectively all being in the Pastoral livelihood zone. Other contributing factors to malnutrition cases in the county include poor hygiene practices as well as child care practices. 5.3.2 Health During the reporting period, the illnesses that were reported were Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) such as flue and diarrhoea across livelihood zones. The diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at household level and most households were taking untreated water. Water quality was poor mostly in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of chldren at risk of malnutrition -June 2024 lower limit Figure 17: Nutrition status by MUAC Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 The average coping strategy index was at 11.74 which was a drop as compared to the previous month at 12.65. Households livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 13 followed by Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 12 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed least coping mechanisms at 2.7(Figure 20). CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief The national government through the office of the deputy county commissioners provided relief Food in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties. 1,600 Bags of 50 Kgs Rice, 2,880 Bags of 50Kgs Beans and 200 Bags of 24kgs Fortified Food that were distributed to the vulnerable households through the chiefs. 6.1.2 Social protection Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in Baringo South sub county targeting eight locations where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Reconcile is also implementing a cash transfer program in Tiaty East sub county targeting 635 beneficiaries whereby each beneficiary is expected to receive Kshs 8045. WFP is planning to do an extension of cash transfer program for another six months targeting 1,348HH and 4000HH with nutrition commodities. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture The County Government through the department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) In five sub counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include bee keeping, breed improvement, pasture establishment among others. Water and sanitation Inter-peace provided one tank with a capacity of 1000 litres at Moinonin IDP camp. Save the Children assisted in water trucking to Moininin IDP camp while the County government assisted in water trucking in other IDP camps. Rehabilitation of boreholes supported by County government and the Kenya Red Cross is ongoing across the county while drilling of new boreholes is being supported by Hope water. Capacity building on sustainable water management was supported by the Kenya Red Cross and County government. Drought risk management Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa reviewed the county drought contingency plan. The exercise led to the updating of the contingency plan that will help in drought response interventions. Baringo NDMA office collaborated sensitized top county management on the EDE 11 framework as well as the validation of the same in Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet counties. Agro pastoral Coping Strategy Index - June 2024 Figure 18: Coping strategy index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 Drought risk management Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa reviewed the county contingency. The exercise led to the updating of the contingency plan that will help in drought response Baringo NDMA office collaborated sensitized top county management on the EDE 11 framework as well as the validation of the same in Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet counties. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement The County was generally calm although there was an isolated incident at Loruk area whereby security personnel confronted bandits resulting in heavy exchange of gun fire. Some of the stolen livestock was eventually recovered and the security machinery has been able to restore some peace. 7.2 Food security prognosis Water access and availability is expected to stay stable as most of the water sources were adequately recharged by the long rains hence trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock will remain below LTA. Water consumption at the household level will also greatly improve hence leading to better utilization of food. Food availability is also expected to improve as milk production will be expected to remain above LTA due to sustained good animal body condition. Livestock migrations are expected to be minimal as herders are expected to utilize forage resources that are nearby. Leafy vegetables are also expected to be in plenty and therefore improving dietary diversity at the household level. Food access is expected to improve especially for pastoral households due to continued improvement in terms of trade whereby households will be accessing more cereals and other food stuff as a result of enhanced household incomes emanating from livestock sales. Incidents of malnutrition at the household level are expected to go down as milk consumption is expected to pick up. Furthermore, availability of leafy vegetables will enrich the household diets hence leading to improved food consumption score Baringo county drought EWS bulletin June 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimise outbreak of water borne diseases. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where community travel long distance to get health services Improve resilience of the vulnerable groups through nutrition education to care givers Promote proper utilization of food especially the indigenous food stuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that are having endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through provision of pasture seeds, hay bailing machines and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures in order to minimize post-harvest crop loses. This include construction of cereal stores and purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity in addressing drought hazard. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness.",
            "Baringo 2024 July EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EWS Bulletin July 2024 National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2024 JULY 2024 EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification The performance of March to May 2024 rainfall was above average triggering substantial improvement in environmental and majority of production indicators. The sentinel sites data indicated that the county is in normal drought classification based on drought indicators. However, the IPC1 which is a common global scale for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity and malnutrition revealed that the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with 36,650 population in need of assistance (KFSSG, LRA 2024 Report). Biophysical Indicators Intermittent showers were received in several parts of the county however with poor frequency. This has supported above average vegetation greenness across the livelihood zones. The condition of pasture and browse ranged between good to fair. The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70- 80 capacity. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production Indicators The improved forage condition has sustained healthy and good livestock body condition for all species. This in turn led to improved calving and kidding thus above average milk production. No unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Rural households purchasing power improved thus favourable terms of trade. Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above the seasonal range. The copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within the normal seasonal range. Majority of households had acceptable (57.8) and borderline (38.5) food consumption. LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Normal Stable Agro Pastoral Normal Stable Irrigated Crop Normal Stable County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Ranges Average rainfall 1st Dekad 76.20 31.45 2nd Dekad 36.89 35.70 Percent water in the Production indicators Value Normal Ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Good Fair Production HHMonth) 1.1 2.0 Livestock deaths due to Drought No deaths No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 32 - 43 Water for Households- trekking distance (km) 2.9 5.4 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Consumption (Litres) 1.0 1.4 Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 19.64 17.4 12.01 19.0 0 - 21 Borderline 21.5 - 35 1 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance The month of July normally marks the beginning of the long dry spell in Baringo County. Nevertheless, county received intermittent downpours during the month of July 2024 more linked to climate change that resulted to rainfall variability. 1.2 Amount of Rainfall and Spatial Distribution According Kenya Meteorological data, southern parts Baringo County received rainfall totals ranging between 101 120 mm during period under review. Northern parts received enhanced rainfall amounts totaling to over 121 mm (Figure 1). The distribution was even in space coverage as most parts of the county received showers however the frequency (temporal distribution) was good as rainfall was received in each dekad (Figure 2). Figure 1: Rainfall Totals (mm) Figure 2: Temporal Distribution Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County - Rainfall Estimates (mm) RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition The vegetation cover within the county is generally good both in terms of quality and quantity in several places of the county. Enhanced rainfall received from March to May 2024 supported significant regeneration of forage. This is evidenced by satellite-derived imagery that shows very good and above average vegetation greenness as of the end of July 2024 (Figure 3). The ongoing June July August 2024 rains in some pockets of the county have also influenced the rangeland biomass greenness. This is most likely to trigger further improvement in the next 1 2 months. Several parts of the county especially the Baringo South sub-county around Lake Baringo are heavily infested with Prosopis Juliflora invasive plant. Figure 3: VCI Matric and Trend Graph Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 2.1.1 Field Observation Forage Condition The condition of forage varies across the livelihood although predominantly ranging between good to fair. Pastoral areas of Akoret and Kollowa both Tiaty had poor pasture conditions. However, localized pockets pastoral zones Kwokototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to invasive weeds such as Santa maria feverfew (Parthenium Hysterophorus) Prosopis Juliflora Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Sentinel site data for July 2024 shows that 47.9 and 78.6 percent of the key informants said pasture and browse are good respectively. Approximately 17.9 and 3.6 percent reported that pasture and browse are poor respectively (Figure 4). 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The county is endowed with permanent rivers which include Parkera, Molo and Emmining. Lake Baringo and Bogoria also contribute immensely to household water for livestock and domestic use. The frequently used water sources during the month of July 2024 were rivers, traditional river wells, pans and dams across the livelihood zones. The sources were significantly recharged by the 2024 long rains and even by off-season rains being received during the month of July 2024in some areas. The proportion of the households that relied on traditional river wells for water stands at 22.7 percent, 25.8 percent depended on rivers and 21.2 percent got water from pans and dams. Other sources include boreholes (12.1), lakes (9.1), shallow wells (6.1) and springs (3) of the households (Figure 5). The above-mentioned water sources are likely to last for the next two months. Figure 4: Pasture and Browse Condition 5 5 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Water Sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 2.2.2 Household Access and Utilization The current average return household trekking distances in the county have been below average and are attributed to the good performance of the rains that were received during the month leading to the recharge water sources. average household trekking distance water points was 2.8 km, a decrease of 29 percent as compared to the previous month as shown in figure 7. The recorded distances were below the LTA by 32 percent and were falling within seasonal range (Figure 6). The irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 3 km. 2.2.3 Livestock Access The average distance trekked by livestock from grazing fields to watering points was 4.9 km, which is drop of 13 percent compared to the previous month average of 5.6 km, and was below the long-term mean by 28 percent. The pastoral livelihood zone recorded highest average distance of 6.2 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded shortest average distance of two kilometres (Figure 7). Current distances were within seasonal range. The declining trend in return distances was attributed to the regeneration of pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Households Average Return Distance to Water Source (Km) Figure 6: Household Return Trekking Distance Average Return Grazing Distance(Km) Figure 7: Grazing Distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The body condition for all livestock species was good and stable as compared to the previous month, which was mostly good (BCS-3 and BCS-4) across the livelihood zones (Figure 8). The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to the availability of water for livestock and improving pasture conditions in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases During the month, no outbreak of notifiable livestock diseases was reported. Households only reported normal endemic cases, including contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, CCPP, mange, helminthiasis, heartwater, enterotoxaemia, and sheep and goat pox, across the livelihood zones. There were also incidences of abortions reported in Tiaty East sub county especially for goats and sheep. 3.1.3 Milk Production The current average milk production at household level was 56 percent above the long-term average above seasonal range at this time of the year (Figure 9). The production lowest Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at an average of 1. litres and this was occasioned by the minimal numbers livestock owned homesteads insecurity issues. current trend attributed to the improving livestock body conditions in all livelihood zones and was expected to be observed for the next two months. The pastoral livelihood zone had the highest production, with 2.6 litres, mostly from camels, while irrigated cropping livelihood had the lowest level of production at 2.3 litres. 3.2 Rain-fed Crop Production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops The main food crops grown in the county include maize, beans, millet, potatoes, cowpeas, and sorghum. The maize planted in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones is at the tussling stage. Most of the beans were destroyed by the heavy rains received earlier in the county. Tomatoes in the irrigated area at the harvesting stage. Figure 8: Livestock Body Condition Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Figure 9: Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock Marketing 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. Prices for cattle have generally remained higher attributed to improved rangeland resources that supported good body condition with maximum body weight for all livestock species. On average medium-sized cattle are currently going Ksh.22,461, which is seven percent above the previous month. The prices varied across markets with Kamurio and Nginyang markets recording prices ranging from Ksh.10,150 16,000. Other markets recorded prices included Marigat, Yatya, Kokwatoto, Kolloa, Loruk, and Sibilio; the prices were within the range of Ksh 25,000 and Ksh 34,000 for medium-sized cattle. Compared to the STA, the current average price of Ksh 22,461 exceeds the average by 49 percent at this time of the year (Figure 10). 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The current average market price for goats is Ksh 4.400 which is relatively comparable to the average price of Ksh 4,169 recorded in the month of June 2024. The current average price is higher by 66 percent when compared to the short- term average at similar time of the year (Figure 11). The markets in the Pastoral livelihood zone recording the highest prices fetching around 5,000 to Ksh 8,000. The better prices witnessed are equated with the improved body condition of livestock and also to buyers from outside the county who buy the goats in large amounts. Following improved rangeland resources, the goats prices are projected to sustain above average prices for the next 2 3 months. Average Cattle Price (Ksh) Figure 10: Cattle Market Prices 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Average Goat Market Prices (Ksh.) Upper llimit Figure 11: Goat Market Price Trends Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize Most of the monitored markets reported a retail price ranging from Ksh 35 50 per kilogram except for Ngoron, Sirata, Kiserian, and Kamurio reporting prices ranging from Ksh 60 90 retail. The average maize prices in the month under review were Kshs 53.1; this was a decrease of 5 compared previous month, which was at 55.7 (Figure 12). The current prices were lower compared short-term mean, prices recorded attributed to the maize held by traders since they are currently sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighboring counties as well as Uganda. The highest average price was recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs. 57 per kg. The lowest was recorded in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.35 per kg. The market prices for goats are like cattle and have sustained above-average trends with the current selling price standing at market at Ksh 4,409 (Figure 12). 4.2.3 Beans Prices Beans The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Kshs.161.5, which was a decrease of eight percent compared month (Figure 13). The current prices were above the short- term average by eight percent and falling within the seasonal ranges. The Pastoral livelihood recorded the highest average prices Ksh.168 while the cropping livelihood recorded the least prices of Ksh.130. The high price decreases were attributed to the harvesting of the beans and green grams in the county as well as the commodity coming in from neighboring counties. 100.0 Average Maize prices (Ksh) Figure 12: Maize Market Selling Prices Apr May Nov Dec Average Beans Price (Ksh) Figure 13: Beans Price Trends Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 4. 3 Terms of Trade The goat-maize ratio continued to increase gradually due to improved prices of livestock together with the dwindling prices maize. Throughout month on average a farmer was able to buy 83 kg of maize from the sale of one goat, which was an improvement compared previous month at current terms of trade were above short-term mean by percent were falling outside the seasonal range at this time of the year (Figure 14). Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 125 while Pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest at 76. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was 2.1 litres compared to the previous month, an increase of percent. current consumption rate was 83 percent above the long-term average as depicted in figure 15. Milk consumption per household varied across livelihood zones and was highest cropping livelihood zone at 2.3 litres, and lowest in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at 1.4 litres. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 14: Household Terms of Trade Milk ConsumptionHHDayLitre Figure 15: Milk Consumption at Household Level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 5.2 Food consumption 5.2.1 Food Consumption Score The food consumption score is a composite score based on the households dietary diversity and food consumption frequency, with the relative nutritional value of various food groups for the county at 41.9. The consumption pattern households remained stable Pastoral and Irrigated but showed a minimal shift livelihood. proportion households that had borderline consumption in the livelihood zone increased to 49 percent percent reported in June 2024. About 96.7 100 percent of the households in Agro Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had acceptable food consumption, as illustrated in Figure 16. Acceptable means that households are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition Status The proportion of children sampled at risk of malnutrition in the month under review was 19.64, which was a decrease of three percentage points from the previous month (Figure 17). The current rate was high relative to the long-term mean and slightly outside seasonal range. This increase in proportion was realized after the nutrition outreach sites in parts of Tirioko and Ribkwo wards in the pastoral livelihood zone their services stopped due to a lack of commodities. The proportion of all highest rates, 49.5 in Akoret (Chepkererat, Kapedo North, and Kamurio), 38.9 in Ribko, and 29.5 in Komolion, were in the pastoral livelihood zone. Others include poor child care and certain harmful hygiene practices. The food consumption score is a composite score derived from the dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of different food groups consumed by the household. 5.3.2 Health Over the reporting period, the reported illnesses were URTI such as flue and diarrhoea across the livelihood zones. The cases of diarrhoea occurred due to the use of water from open sources, poor 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Figure 16: Food Consumption Patterns Proportion of Children at risk of Malnutriotion upper Limit lower limit Figure 17: Percentage of Children U5 at risk of Malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 hygiene practices at the household level, and most households were taking untreated water. Most households have very poor water quality, especially in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East, and Tiaty West sub-counties. 5. 4 Coping Strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategy index measures the frequency and severity of the food consumption behaviors the households engage in due to food shortage in the 7 days recall period. The average coping strategy index was relatively stable at 12.01 about the previous month 11.71. Households in the Pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 13.6 followed by the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at 9.9 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least at 2.9. (Figure 18). Figure 18:rCSI Baringo county drought EWS bulletin July 2024 6.0 ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief National government distributed 700 bags of rice, 250 bags of beans and 150 bags of 24 kg Corn Soya to public schools affected by insecurity and floods. 6.1.2 Social Protection Targeting is ongoing for unconditional cash transfer for 2880 and 1348 households by ACF and WFP respectively. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Extension services to crop farmers Water and sanitation ACF is targeting to rehabilitate 9 boreholes in Tiaty and Baringo South. Peace and Security The security forces in collaboration with community elders have recovered around 7 cattle that were stolen during the Noosukro raids. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement There was an attack during the month under review to Pastoralists living in Noosukuro by bandits that led to loss of three lives and approximately 55 heads of cattle taken away. 7.2 Food Security Prognosis The projected La Nina conditions during the 2024 October to December rainfall seasons: Rangeland resources are projected to stabilize across the livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is anticipated to be good to fair during the projected period thus prices for livestock likely to remain above LTA. The expected 2024 long rains harvest is likely to support gradual decline in prices of food commodities in the markets. Water sources will likely recharge thus mostly likely driving lower than normal trekking distances by both households and livestock to water points. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Sensitise communities using unprotected water sources on important of treating water for drinking and other hygiene issues. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Intensify mass screening and referrals for children under five, pregnant and lactating mothers. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Vaccination of livestock against lumpy Skin Disease, CCPP and PPR 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Supply of drip kits and multi- storey gardens and vegetable seeds Purchase and distribution of hermetic bags, Purchase and distribution of solar driers and Promote post-harvest hygiene capacity building.",
            "Baringo 2024 August EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EWS Bulletin July 2024 National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR AUGUST 2024 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed across the county although several areas received intermittent rainfall that was near to above average. Vegetation greenness remained above normal. Based on field and satellite data, the county is classified in normal drought situation. The IPC1 classification conducted in July 2024 indicated that the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with 36,650 population in need of assistance (KFSSG, LRA 2024 Report). Biophysical indicators The county had dry spells for the better part of the month. Vegetation condition as measured by NDVI was above LTA, implying good conditions The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70- 80 capacity. The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was fair to good supporting above average milk production. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were favourable. Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above the seasonal range. The copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within the normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Condition (BCS) 3 - 4 Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.4 1.7 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households- trekking distance (km) 2.7 4.4 Grazing Distances for Livestock 5.1 7.9 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 20.45 17.4 19.0 1 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweedin Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance The county experienced sunny weather conditions however intermittent afternoon showers and thunderstorms were received in several places of the county. Satellite driven images for rainfall estimates from Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET) (https:earlywarning.usgs.govfewsewx) shows that near to above average rainfall was recorded during the month of August 2024. Distribution in space was uneven temporal distribution was fair as showers were recorded within the three dekads of the month (Figure 2). 1.2 Amount of Rainfall and Spatial Distribution The weather outlook for September 2024 and the review of August 2024, released on 31st August 2024 by Kenya Meteorological department indicated that Baringo County received rainfall amounts totaling to 121 to 200 mm (Figure 1), Ref. No. KMDFCST4- 2024MO09. Several parts of the county experienced cooler temperature during the month under review. The department has also predicted that several parts of the country will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions during the month of September 2024 and depressed rainfall amounts during the October to December 2024 rainfall season due to mild La Nina conditions. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall Estimates and Temporal Distribution Figure 1: Rainfall Totals (mm) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Baringo South sub county especially areas around Lake Baringo are heavily infested with green dense thickets of Prosopis Juliflora. The dense thickets formed by Prosopis juliflora are difficult to clear and make land unusable for farming, particularly for subsistence farmers who depend on small plots of land for their livelihoods (Muturi et al., 2019). The June-July - August 2024 seasonal was wetter than normal which supported high soil moisture content subsequently resulting to improved forage condition both in quality and quantity in most parts of the county. Satellite imagery indicated that vegetation greenness was above the average across all the sub county however it was within average for Eldama Ravine sub county as measured by vegetation condition index (Figure 3). Figure 3: VCI Matric and Trend Graphs Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 2.1.1 Field Observation Forage The condition of forage varies across the livelihood although predominantly ranging between good to fair. Pasture and browse further rejuvenated in most several parts of the county owing to the rainfall received in July and August 2024 in several places of the county. In addition, the March to May 2024 rainfall season performed significantly above average supported better rangeland regeneration across the livelihood zones. This is evidenced by the community reports which indicated that sections that had poor vegetation improved to fair vegetation condition. According to interviewed community key informants, 55.6 and 85.2 percent of them said quality and quantity of pasture and browse is good respectively. Another 44.4 and 14.8 percent responded that it is fair (Figure 4). Pastoral areas of Akoret and Silale both in Tiaty constituency had fair pasture conditions. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water Sources A larger proportion of households reported getting water more frequently from rivers, traditional river wells and pans, and dams during the month of August 2024 across the livelihood zones. The 2024 long rains, and even off- season rains in some areas, significantly recharged the water sources. Households relying on traditional river wells are 22 percent of the total, while 25 percent depend on the rivers and 20 percent get their water from pans and dams. Others get their supplies from boreholes at 11 percent, lakes at 10 percent, springs 9 percent, and shallow wells at 3 percent of the households (Figure Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Water Sources Figure 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 2.2.2 Household Access and Utilization The current below-normal household trekking distances in the county are attributed to the rains that were received during the month leading to the recharge of water sources. The average household trekking distance from water points was 2.6 Km, a decrease seven percent as compared to the previous month. recorded distances were below percent and falling within lowest seasonal range (Figure 6) at the same time of the year. The irrigated cropping livelihood zone has a minimum trekking distance of one kilometre, whereas the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had the maximum average of 3 km. 2.2.3 Livestock Access The distance that livestock have to trek from grazing fields to water points was 4.8 km, which is comparable to the previous month. In reference to long-term mean, the current average return distance was below by 26 percent. The livelihood recorded the highest average distance of 5.4 km while livelihood recorded the shortest average distance of kilometres (Figure current trekked distances livestock to and back within seasonal range. The within normal distances across the livelihood zones were due to the general regeneration of pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Households Distance to Water Source in Km Figure 6: Households Trekking Distances Average Return Grazing Distance(Km) Figure 7: Livestock Grazing Distances Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Generally, body condition for majority of livestock species was good across the livelihood zones. The good body condition is attributed to the availability of forage and water across the livelihood zones due to intermittent showers received in the month of July and August 2024. Stable, compared to the previous month which was mostly good, BCS-3 and BCS-4 across the livelihood zones (Figure 8). The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to the availability of water for livestock and improving pasture conditions in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases During the month, no outbreak of notifiable livestock diseases was reported. Households reported only normal endemic cases across the livelihood zones, which included contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, mange, helminthiasis, heartwater and sheep and goat pox. 3.1.3 Milk Production The current milk production at household level was averagely 2.3 litres up 49 percent from the long- term average and stable compared with the previous month (Figure 9). The milk production was lowest in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone, averaging at one (1) litre and occasioned by the minimal numbers of livestock owned by homesteads due insecurity issues. Improvement livestock conditions across livelihood zones had been attributed to above average production, and this was expected to continue in the next two months. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest production of 2.3 litres mainly from camels, followed by irrigated cropping livelihood, which had production at 2 litres. 3.2 Rain-fed Crop Production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops Major crops grown in the county are maize, beans, and tomatoes. Most livelihood zones grow maize and beans, including mixed farming, Agro-pastoral, and irrigated cropping. Tomatoes are mainly done under irrigation in the irrigated cropping. Most of the maize in the irrigated livelihood zones is for commercial purposes. Throughout the irrigated and agropastoral livelihood zones, the main season crops of maize and beans have been harvested; while in the mixed livelihood zones, crops have begun to wilt and harvesting is likely to begin at the end of September. Figure 8: Livestock Body Condition Apr May Average Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Figure 9: Household Average Milk Production Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock Marketing 4.1.1 Cattle Prices The prices of cattle have generally remained higher attributed to the improved rangeland resources that supported good body condition maximum body weight across all the livestock species. Medium- sized cattle are currently going at an average of Ksh 23,685, five percent above recorded previous month. Prices varied across the markets, with Kamurio and Nginyang markets recording low prices ranging between Ksh 10,500 18,000. Other markets, which realized high prices, included Marigat, Yatya, Kokwatoto, Kolloa, Loruk, and Sibilio. The prices ranged between Ksh 26,000 and Ksh 35,000 for medium-sized cattle. This current average price outdoes the average by 50 percent against the STA at this time of the year (Figure 10). 4.1.2 Goat Market Prices Goats condition continuously remained good coupled vibrate markets which has attracted high prices in the markets. The average price of a medium goat during the month was relatively stable, recording 4,463 compared to the previous month. Prices were 59 percent higher short-term average of 2,657 (Figure 11), with prices in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone recording the highest of Ksh. 5,467. These better prices are equated to the improvement in the body condition of the livestock and also to buyers from outside the county who purchase the goats in bulk. Oct Nov Dec Average Cattle Price (Ksh) lower Limit Figure 10: Cattle Price Trend 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Average GoatMarket Prices (Ksh.) Upper llimit Figure 11: Goats Market Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 4.2.0. Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize Across most of the monitored markets, the retail price ranged from Ksh 40 50 per kg, with the exception of Ngoron and Kamurio markets, where retail prices averaged in the range of Ksh 60 The average price for maize in the month under review stood at Kshs 51.7; this was a decrease of three percent from the previous month that stood at Ksh 53.1 per kilogram. Current prices percent lower compared to the short-term mean (Figure 12), and the prices recorded attributed to the maize held by traders since they are currently sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. The highest was in the pastoral livelihood zone that had an average price of Ksh 53 per kilogram and the lowest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh 40 per kilogram. 4.2.2 Beans Prices The average selling price kilogram beans retailed at Ksh 160, which is stable as compared to last month as well as the short- term average (Figure 13). livelihood recorded the highest average prices of Ksh 166 while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh 130 per kilogram. decreases in prices were attributed to the harvesting of beans and green grams in the county, supplemented by the commodity coming in from the neighbours. 100.0 Average Maize Prices per Kilogram (Ksh) Figure 12: Maize Prices Average Beans Price in Ksh per Kilogram Figure 13: Beans Selling Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 4. 3 Terms of Trade The goat to maize ratio has sustained an upward due to the improvement of prices of livestock together with dwindling prices of maize. Maize prices have been declining nationally following the above average performance of the last two consecutive rainfall seasons. Over the month, a farmer could buy on average 86.4 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat up from 83 (Figure 14). The current terms of trade were way above the short-term mean by 109 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range at this time of the year. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 105, while Pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest at 82 kg. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was 2.1 litres compared to the previous month at 2.2 litres. The current milk consumption rate was 45 percent above the long-term average as depicted in Figure 17. Milk consumption per household varied across livelihood zones and was highest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 2 litres, and lowest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1 litre. 5.2 Food Consumption 5.2.1 Food Consumption Score The Food consumption score is an aggregate score, based on the dietary diversity of the households and food consumption frequency, with the relative nutritional value of various food groups for the county standing at 42.4. consumption pattern households remained stable in Agro Pastoral showed a minimal shift in Pastoral livelihood. proportion households borderline consumption increased to 63.7 percent in the Pastoral livelihood zone percent reported in July 2024. All households in Agro Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had acceptable food consumption, as shown in Figure 18. Acceptable means that households are 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Households Proportion Figure 15: Food Consumption Proportion Figure 14: Terms of Trade Trends Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition Status proportion children sampled at risk of malnutrition in the month under review was 20.45 percent. This was an increase of four percentage points from the previous month Figure 19. This rate was high against the long term mean and slightly outside of the seasonal range. This increase in proportion was realized after the nutrition outreach sites in parts of Tirioko and Ribkwo wards in the pastoral livelihood zone had most of their services stopped due to lack of commodities and outbreak of malaria in the Akoret sentinel site. The proportion of all highest rates was 55 percent in Akoret, Chepkererat, Kapedo North, and Kamurio, 42.2 percent in Ribko and 27.9 percent in Komolion, being in the Pastoral livelihood zone. Others include poor child care and unhygienic practices within the communities. The food consumption score is a composite score that emanates from the dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of various food groups consumed by the household. 5.3.2 Health In the reporting period, Akoret sentinel site had an outbreak of malaria, although other illnesses such as URTI, flu, and diarrhea were reported across livelihood zones. Diarrhea occurred because of the use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at the household level, and most households were taking untreated water. Most households have very poor water quality, especially in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East, and Tiaty West sub-counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The Reduced Coping Strategies Index (RCSI) is a proxy indicator of household food insecurity. It considers both the frequency and severity of five pre-selected coping strategies that the household used in the seven days prior to the survey. The average coping strategy index marginal improvement as compared to the previous month 12.01. Households livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.9 followed by the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 8.9 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least at 2.7. (Figure 17). Figure 17: Reduced Coping Strategy Index Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in lower limit Figure 16: Proportion of Children at Risk of Malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Relief food distribution for schools affected by insecurity in Baringo South where 700 bags of rice, 250 bags of beans and 150 bags of corn soya blend for the month under review were distributed. 6.1.2 Social protection World Food Programme is undertaking cash transfer program (Lisha Jamii phase 3) targeting 1,348 Households for 6 months with household receiving KSh. 5000 (August, September and October 2024 and January, February and March 2025). Additionally, the program also supports 4000 clients with nutrition supplements in management of moderate malnutrition cases. Action against Hunger is undertaking cash transfer program targeting 2880 Households for 4 months with household receiving KSh. 5000 (August, September and October 2024 and January, February and March 2025). Additionally, the program also supports 2880 clients with nutrition supplements in management malnutrition cases. Kenya Red Cross Society is implementing Cash for Voucher Assistance targeting 1060 households in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty West for 3 Months with each household receiving KSh.10,100 per month. The program is funded by American Red Cross. Give Directly is implementing a non-conditional cash transfer program in the Baringo North sub-county where each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. The targeting of is ongoing. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture The County Government through the Department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Locust Response Project (ELRP) In five sub-counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include beekeeping, breed improvement, and pasture establishment among others. SHA is supporting in livestock improvement through supply of improved livestock breeds such as Galla, Dorper ad Sahiwal De-risking Inclusion Value enhancement of Pastoral Economies in the Horn of Africa (DRIVE) funded by World Bank implemented by insurance (ZEP-RE), KDC, state department for livestock and County government is ongoing targeting livestock framers to insure their livestock against drought. Currently the project is targeting farmers for registration. Water and sanitation IOM supported in improving of Kibele Borehole through pipeline extension, communal water point, 2no. PVC tanks (10,000 Liters each) and 1 no. 24000 liter capacity plastic tank Pipeline exetnsion and installation of water tanks in Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North NRT Construction of 3 water pans in Churo Amaya, Tangulbei Korossi water NDMA supported in equipping of Sandai Borehole in Mochongoi ward Drought risk management Normal coordination meetings on drought resilience programming was done to ensure collaboration and synergies among partners. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Heavy downpour upstream resulted to overflow of River Parkerra displacing some households and some crop farms were submerged along the river. Livestock lost and farm produce destroyed after landslides affected Kapkombe and Kasisit villages of Baringo county after the heavy rains of 6th to 7th August 2024. 7.2 Food Security Prognosis The Kenya Meteorological Department seasonal outlook indicates that Kenya is likely to experience depressed rainfall during the expected short rains season, spanning October to December 2024, due to a mild La Nina. Rangeland resources which include forage and water are likely to dwindle to below average through end of the year. Livestock prices are expected to sustain above average for next 2 -3 months driven by good to fair body conditions. Food availability and access is likely to improve through end of October 2024 as harvesting of rainfed and irrigated food crop will be concluded. Malaria cases are likely to intensify through out the month of September 2024 especially in hot spots areas of Tiaty constituency. 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Distribution of water treatment chemicals at dispensary and household level. Construction of embarkment walls along river Parkerra to control unintended diversion of the river into the homesteads and irrigation farms. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Mass screening in areas with high malnutrition rates such as Akoret, Orus, Chepkererat, Kapedo North, Kamurio, Ribko and Komolion. Intensify support for anti-malaria campaigns in hot spot areas 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that have endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through the provision of pasture seeds, hay- bailing machines, and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas, especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures to minimize post-harvest crop losses. This includes the construction of cereal stores and the purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity to address drought hazards. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin August 2024",
            "Baringo 2024 September EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EWS Bulletin September 2024 National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR SEPTEMBER 2024 SEPTEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification The environmental are within seasonal with rainfall and vegetation greenness dwindling. Hand washing practices are very low and most open water sources are unprotected. The county drought classification is normal with a stable trend. Biophysical Indicators Sunny and dry spells prevailed in several place of the county for the better part of the month. Vegetation condition as measured by NDVI was above long-term average, implying above average greenness conditions The water levels in most pans were within normal range at 50-70 capacity. The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was fair to good Milk production was above normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were good and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were below the long-term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above the seasonal range. The copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within the normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score. LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL STABLE IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL STABLE COUNTY NORMAL STABLE Biophysical Indicators Value Value Normal ranges Average rainfall 80-120 VCI-3month Above Average 35-50 Percent of water in the 50 70 80-100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Condition (BCS) Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.26 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water for Households- trekking distance (km) Grazing Distance for livestock (km) 4.9 7.3 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 18.66 15.9 19.0 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweedin A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance Sunny intervals predominantly prevailed in several places of the county during the month under review. Areas of Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North experienced high day time temperatures. Few places bordering Marakwet, West Pokot and Turkana counties received depressed occasional showers during the period under review. Spatial and temporal distribution was poor across the livelihood zones. 1.2 Amount of Rainfall and Spatial Distribution Generally, dry spell was predominantly experienced in most parts of the county. The Kenya Meteorological department review of September 2024 indicated that southern parts of the county received below average rainfall totaling to approximately 21 50 mm. However, areas bordering Marakwet, West Pokot and Turkana counties received below average to near average rainfall totals ranging between 51 100 mm (Figure 1). The satellite imagery driven data showed that intermittent and depressed showers were received in few places however with poor spatial and temporal distributions. Figure 1: Rainfall Estimate Totals (mm) 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVI (2024) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall Estimates and Temporal Distribution (https:earlywarning.usgs.govfews) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition The county is endowed with indigenous and exotic vegetation although it is also infested with alien invasive plants and weeds in most of the livelihood zones. Several places of the county had vegetation greenness that is above average as measured by satellite imagery. The greenness content is attributed to above average rainfall performance for the last two consecutive seasons. Also, the alien plants and weeds in localized parts which include santa maria fever few (Parthenium Hysterophorus) and Prosopis Juliflora which are ever green have also contributed to above average vegetation greenness. According to the applied remote sensed data, the vegetation greenness on average is above normal as measured by vegetation condition index (VCI) as shown in the Figure 3 below. Figure 3: VCI Matrix and Graph Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 2.1.1 Field observation Forage Vegetation condition is currently average to above average in several places although declining in both quality and quantity due to sunny and dry weather conditions during the month under review. The fair to good vegetation condition is attributed to above average performance of the March to May 2024 rainfall season coupled with above average rainfall receive during the 2024 June July - August season. According to interviewed key informants across the livelihood zones, majority of them said forage condition is good, around 88.9 and 59.3 percent mentioned browse and pasture is good respectively while another 40.7 and 11.1 percent said pasture and browse is fair respectively (Figure 4). Households in Kolloa, Akoret wards in Tiaty and Mukutani ward in Baringo South reported limited access to forage due to insecurity and existence of livestock biting pests. 2.2 Water resources 2.2.1 Water sources The main source of drinking water and for livestock are Wells, pansdams, rivers, Lakes, and boreholes. Water availability and access remained stable however some sources are unprotected which hinders achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target 6.1 which addresses the achievement of universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030. The sentinel site data for the month of September 2024 revealed that a proportion of 29.3 percent of the households relied on wells for water, 23.1 percent got water from pans and dams, 15.4 percent frequently fetched water from rivers, 12.3, 10.8 and 9.2 percent depended on lakes, boreholes and springs respectively (Figure 5). The open water sources and rivers volumes are declining due to prevailing sunny and windy weather conditions. 2.2.2 Household access and utilization Figure 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Major Water Sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 The average household trekking distances in the county during the month was at 2.9Km a marginal increase as compared to the previous month. The current average return distance was below the long-term average percent (Figure 6). This is attributed to the recharge of water sources during previous months. The irrigated cropping livelihood zone has a minimum trekking distance of one kilometre, whereas the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had the maximum average of 2.2.3 Livestock access The distance that livestock have to trek from grazing fields to water points was 5.4 km, 13 percent rise as compared to the previous month, was below the long-term mean by 26 percent (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 6.2 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres Figure Current distances were within the seasonal range. This is due to the general regeneration pastures recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The general body condition for all species of livestock was good. Stable, compared to the previous month which was mostly good, around 56 percent said it BCS-3 and 44 percent responded it is BCS-4 across the livelihood zones. Figure 8 The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to the availability of water for livestock and improving pasture conditions in the county. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases During the month, no outbreak of notifiable livestock diseases was reported. Households reported only normal endemic cases across the livelihood zones, which included contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, mange, helminthiasis, heartwater and sheep and goat pox. 3.1.3 Milk Production Households Distance to Water Source in Km Figure 6: Households Trekking Distances Average Return Grazing Distance(KM) Figure 7: Livestock Distances from Water points to Grazing Fields Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 The current milk production at household level was averagely 2.3 litres which was stable as compared with the previous month. The milk production was above the long term Mean by 38 percent due to improved rangeland resources following drought recovery driven by three consecutive positive rainfall seasons. Improved livestock production has increased milk production above five-year average, improving household purchasing power. However, below- average herd sizes limit the total milk production and the number of animals available for consumption sale. production was lowest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone, averaging 1litre and this was occasioned by the minimal numbers of livestock owned by homesteads due to insecurity issues. Improvement in livestock body conditions across livelihood zones had been attributed to this trend, and this was expected to continue in the next two months. Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest production of 2.4 litres mainly from camels, followed by irrigated cropping livelihood, which had production at 1.9 litres. 3.2 Rain-fed crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops Major crops grown in the county are maize, beans, and tomatoes. Most livelihood zones grow maize and beans, including mixed farming, agro-pastoral, and irrigated cropping. Tomatoes are mainly done under irrigation in the irrigated cropping. Most of the maize in the irrigated livelihood zones is for commercial purposes. The farmers have started preparing their farms in anticipation for the long rains. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Figure 8: Average Milk Production in Litres Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock Marketing 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The body condition for livestock remained good due to availability of forage which in turn attracted better prices at the market. The cattle prices continued to gradually show upward trend since the beginning of the year. The current average retail price stand at Ksh 25,700 for medium size and healthy cattle. The prices of cattle have generally remained higher attributed improved rangeland resources that supported condition maximum body weight across all the livestock species. Medium- sized cattle are currently going at an average of Ksh 24,667, four percent above what was recorded the previous month. Prices varied across the markets, with Kamurio and Nginyang markets recording low prices ranging between Ksh 10,500 18,000. Other markets, which realized high prices, included Marigat, Yatya, Kokwatoto, Kolloa, Loruk, and Sibilio. The prices ranged between Ksh 26,000 and Ksh 33,000 for medium-sized cattle. This current average price outdoes the average by 48 percent against the STA at this time of the year (Figure 9). 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The selling prices for goats like cattle were significantly above the normal since the beginning of the year. The higher than normal prices are attributed to good goats body condition driven by availability of forage and water within the grazing fields. The average price of a medium size goat during the month was relatively stable, averaging at Ksh 4,380 compared to Ksh 4,460 recorded in the preceding month. The current average price was 49 percent higher than the short-term average of 2,930 at the same period of time (Figure 10). The prices in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone averaged at Ksh 4,533 which was the highest compared to other livelihood zones within the county. These better prices are equated to the improvement in the body condition of the livestock and also to buyers from outside the county who purchase the goats in bulk. Figure 9: Cattle Market Prices 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Average Goat Price (Ksh.) Upper llimit Figure 10: Goats Market Price Trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 4.2.0. Crop Prices 4.2.1 Maize Maize is the leading staple food in the county. Retail prices for dry white maize have been declining in the region attributed above average harvest in the most parts of the country. Across various monitored markets, the retail price ranged between Ksh 40 50 per kilogram (kg), with the exception of Ngoron and Kamurio markets, where retail prices averaged in the range of Ksh 60 70 per Kg. The average price for maize in the month under review stood at Ksh 50.2; this was a decrease of three percent from the previous month that stood at 53.1 Figure 13. Current prices were 30 lower compared to the short-term mean, and the prices recorded were attributed to the maize held by traders since they are currently sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. The highest was in the pastoral livelihood zone that had an average price of Kshs. 53 per kg and the lowest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.40 per kg. 4.2.2 Beans The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at Ksh 152.60, which is relatively comparable to last month recorded average price of Ksh 159 and stable in comparison to the short-term average, Figure 15. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh 140 for kilogram. The high decreases in prices were attributed to the harvesting of beans and green grams in the county, supplemented by the commodity coming in from the Western, Nyanza and sections of Rift Valley. 100.0 Average Maize prices (Ksh) Figure 11: Retail Prices for Dry White Maize Beans Average Price (Ksh) Figure 12: Beans Market Prices Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 4. 3 Terms of Trade Household terms of trade also termed as purchasing power is the amount of cereals especially maize a household can buy with the cash income obtained by selling one mature and healthy goat. The goat-maize ratio continued to increase gradually due to the improvement of prices of livestock together with dwindling prices of maize. Over the month, a farmer could buy on average 86.4 kg of maize from the sale of one goat up from 83 as shown in Figure 16. The current terms of trade were way above the short- term mean by 109 percent and exceeding the seasonal maximum range at this time of the year. Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 1:105, while Pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest at 1: 82. The terms of trade have been favourable to market reliant rural households across the livelihood zones as they are able to buy above average kilograms of cereals from income obtained by selling one medium size goat. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was 2 litres compared to the previous month at 1.9 litres. The improved milk consumption is attributed to kidding and calving in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones. current consumption rate was percent above the long-term average as depicted in Figure 17. Milk consumption per household varied across livelihood zones and was highest cropping livelihood zone at 2 litres, and lowest in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone at 1 litre. Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 13: Household Terms of Trade Apr May ConsumptionHHDayLitre Figure 14: Milk Consumption at Household Level Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 5.2 Food consumption 5.2.1 Food Consumption Score (FCS) World Food Programme define FCS as a composite score based on households dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of different food groups. Sentinel site data indicated that all the sampled households in Irrigated livelihood zone had acceptable food consumption while in Agro livelihood zone, 86.7 percent and 13.3 percent acceptable borderline consumption. livelihood zone, around 1.9 percent consumption, 50 percent had borderline and 48.1 percent acceptable consumption. Food consumption pattern of households remained stable in Agro Pastoral and showed minimal shift in Pastoral livelihood. The proportion of households that had borderline food consumption was 50.2 percent in the Pastoral livelihood zone. Majority of the households in Agro Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had acceptable food consumption excepted for 13.3 in the agropastoral who had borderline food consumption score, as shown in Figure 18. Acceptable means that households are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition status The proportion of sampled children aged five 12 59 months at risk of malnutrition in the month under review stands at 18.66 percent. This is a decrease of about nine percentage points from the previous month as indicated in the graph labelled Figure 19. This rate was high against the long term mean and slightly outside of seasonal range. decrease in proportion was realized after the nutrition outreach sites in parts of Tirioko and Ribkwo wards in the pastoral livelihood zone had most of their services were restored. The proportion of all highest rates was 48 in Akoret, Chepkererat, Kapedo North, and Kamurio, 42.2 in Ribko 29.7 Komolion, being in the pastoral livelihood zone. Others include poor child care and certain harmful hygiene practices. The food consumption score is a composite score that emanates from the dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of various food groups consumed by the household. 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Figure 15: Food Consumption Patterns Oct Nov Dec Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in upper Limit lower limit Figure 16: Prevalence of Children U5 at Risk of Malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 5.3.2 Health In the reporting period, Akoret sentinel site had an outbreak of malaria, although other illnesses such as URTI, flu, and diarrhoea were reported across livelihood zones. Diarrhoea occurred because of the use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at the household level, and most households were taking untreated water. Most households have very poor water quality, especially in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East, and Tiaty West sub-counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index A coping strategy is an action taken (strategy adopted) by householdsindividuals when shocks push them beyond the difficulties faced in normal times. During the month under review, the mean food related coping strategy (rCSI) was 11.1 which stable compared to 11.35 recorded in the month of August 2024. Larger proportion of households within the sentinel sites which about 62.9 percent coped using stressed coping strategies, 15.8 percent applied crisis coping and 21.3 percent reported not engaging in any coping mechanisms. Households in the Pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.6 followed by the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 9.1 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least at 2.7 (Figure 17). Figure 17: Reduced Coping Strategy Index Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief Food aid was distributed during the month of September 2024 in Baringo County. 6.1.2 Social protection Continuous unconditional cash transfer by World Food Programme under Lisha Jamii phase 3 targeting 1,348 households for 6 months with household receiving Ksh 5000 (August, September and October 2024 and January, February and March 2025). Additionally, the program also supports 4000 clients with nutrition supplements in management of moderate malnutrition cases. Action against Hunger is undertaking cash transfer program targeting 2880 households for 4 months with household receiving Ksh 5000 (August, September and October 2024 and January, February and March 2025). Additionally, the program also supports 2880 clients with nutrition supplements in management malnutrition cases. Kenya Red Cross Society is implementing Cash for Voucher Assistance targeting 1060 households in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Tiaty West for 3 Months with each household receiving KSh.10,100 per month. The program is funded by American Red Cross. Targeting for cash transfer by Give Directly is at final stage. 6.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture The County Government through the Department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Locust Response Project (ELRP) In five sub-counties of Tiaty (Kolloa, ChuroAmaya wards), Baringo North (Bartabwa, Saimo Soi wards), Baringo South (Ilchamus, Mochongoi wards), Mogotio (Kisanana ward) and Baringo Central (Sacho ward) targeting 9,725 beneficiaries. Some of the activities being supported include beekeeping, breed improvement, and pasture establishment among others. SHA is supporting in livestock improvement through supply of improved livestock breeds such as Galla, Dorper ad Sahiwal De-risking Inclusion Value enhancement of Pastoral Economies in the Horn of Africa (DRIVE) funded by World Bank implemented by insurance (ZEP-RE), KDC, state department for livestock and County government is ongoing targeting livestock framers to insure their livestock against drought. Currently the project is targeting farmers for registration. Water and sanitation IOM supported in improving of Kibele Borehole through pipeline extension, communal water point, 2no. PVC tanks (10,000 Liters each) and 1 no. 24000 liter capacity plastic tank Pipeline exetnsion and installation of water tanks in Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North NRT Construction of 3 water pans in Churo Amaya, Tangulbei Korossi water NDMA supported in equipping of Sandai Borehole in Mochongoi ward Drought risk management Normal coordination meetings on drought resilience programming was done to ensure collaboration and synergies among partners. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Calmness prevailed across the county. 7.2 Food Security Prognosis The Kenya Meteorological Department seasonal outlook indicates that Kenya is likely to experience depressed rainfall during the expected short rains season, spanning October to December 2024, due to a mild La Nina. Pasture and browse are expected to remained stable in the next one month with possibility of further rejuvenation when the 2024 short rain season sets in. There is high probability of all livestock species to maintain above average selling prices across the livelihood zones. Food availability and access is likely to improve through end of October 2024 as harvesting of rainfed and irrigated food crop will be concluded. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin September 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Urgent repair of Parkers irrigation scheme canals to ensure water reaches to the farms. Desilting of pans especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Public education on dietary diversity, maternal and hygiene practices especially for rural households. Supporting integrated medical outreaches in hard to reach areas of the county. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that have endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through the provision of pasture seeds, hay-bailing machines, and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas, especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures to minimize post-harvest crop losses. This includes the construction of cereal stores and the purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity to address drought hazards. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness.",
            "Baringo 2024 October EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EWS Bulletin October 2024 National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR OCTOBER 2024 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification The month has been predominantly characterized by sunny and dry weather conditions. Vegetation quality and quantity is dwindling across the livelihood zones. Malnutrition prevalence remained high for children under five years of age. Livestock prices remained above average and crop prices are below average. The county is classified in Normal drought phase with a deteriorating trend. Biophysical indicators The county had dry spells for the better part of the month. Vegetation condition as measured by NDVI was above LTA, implying good conditions The Water levels in most pans were within normal range at 70- 80 capacity. The forage condition was fair to good in both quality and quantity Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was fair to good Milk production was above normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases Access indicators Terms of trade were good and above LTA Distances to water sources for households were below the long- term average. Utilization indicators The number of under-five children at risk of malnutrition was slightly above the seasonal range. The copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within the normal seasonal range. The bulk of the households had acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL DETERIORATING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL DETERIORATING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL DETERIORATING COUNTY NORMAL DETERIORATING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Ranges Average Rainfall (mm) 25.78 26.69 Percent water in the 50 - 70 80 - 100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Body Condition (BCS) Production HHMonth) 1.66 Livestock deaths drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) Water Households- trekking distance (km) Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Milk Consumption (Litres) Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 17.92 15.2 19.0 0 - 21 Borderline 21.5 - 35 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweedin A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance The October to December 2024 seasonal rainfall had a false onset occuring during the seocnd dekad of october 2024. Amount peaked during the second dekad of the month which halted in subsequent dekad of the month. Several places of the county experienced sunny and dry weather conditions with exception of few areas bordering Nakuru County that received occasional, erratic and depressed showers with poor frequency (Figure 1). Figure 1: Rainfall Performance (mm) Amount Rainfall Spatial Distribution The county experienced sunny and dry weather conditions with depressed showers in marginal pockets. The rainfall estimates (RFE) according to satellite derived data indicated that several places of the county received cumulative rainfall totals of about 55 69 mm during the first, second and third dekads of October 2024. However, few places in southern part of the county; bordering Nakuru County received 81 113 mm of the rainfall. Marginal areas of Tirioko, Ribkwo, Silale and ChuroAmaiya wards recorded poor rainfall amounts ranging between 21 54 mm during the month under review as per Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET data). The distribution was poor in terms of time (Figure 1) and uneven in terms of space as depicted in Figure 2. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2024) RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall Amount (mm) and Spatial Distribution Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition The rangeland condition is deteriorating both in quality and quantity of pasture and browse. The degenerative condition of vegetation is attributed to sunny and dry weather condition that resulting into high transpiration. Data derived from satellite shows that vegetation greenness is above normal in most of the rangeland within the county as per vegetation condition index for October 2024. However, the county is heavily infested with variety of invasive plant species such as prosopis juliflora (Mathenge) that are evergreen species even during the dry spell. Figure 3: Vegetation Condition Index Trends Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 2.1.1 Field Observation Pasture and Browse Condition Currently, forage condition in county during the month was ranging between good to fair across all livelihood zones. The quality and even quantity of pasture and browse are deteriorating due to overgrazing coupled with scorching sunny weather condition resulting to wilting of vegetation. A few pockets in the pastoral livelihood zone had poor forage conditions these were the areas of Amaiya, Ribkwo, Tirioko Akoret and silale. Nevertheless, localized pockets in pastoral zones of Kokwototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to invasive weeds such as Santa maria feverfew (Parthenium Hysterophorus) Prosopis Juliflora in Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Some areas such as Mukutani, Arabal, Ngelecha and areas bordering Turkana County had limited access to pasture and browse due to insecurity. Sentinel site data shows that 26 and 59 percent of the key informants said pasture and browse are good respectively. Approximately 70 and 37 percent reported that pasture and browse are fair respectively (Figure 4). 2.2 Water Resources 2.2.1 Water Sources During the month of October 2024, the water sources that were used more frequently across the livelihood zones were water pans, traditional river wells and rivers. The rains received in the months of August and September especially highlands significantly recharged rivers and lakes. The current water levels in open surface water sources such as water pans were at approximately 60-70 percent of their normal capacity. Households relying on water pans and traditional river wells each stand at 26 percent of the total, while 12 percent depend on the rivers and boreholes each. Others households reported getting their water from lakes which stand at 11 percent , springs at 10 percent, and shallow wells at 3 percent of the households (Figure 5). Safe and sufficient water facilitates the practice of hygiene, which is a key measure to prevent not only diarrheal diseases, but acute respiratory infections and numerous neglected tropical diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), between 50 and 100 litres of water per person per day are needed to ensure that most basic needs are met and few health concerns arise. Pasture Condition Browse Condition Figure 4: Respondents View on Forage Condition Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Figure 5: Household Sources of Water Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 2.2.2 Household Access and Utilization The average household trekking distances in the county during the month was at 3.1 km a marginal increase of seven percent as compared to the previous month. The current distances are below long-term average by 14 percent and within the seasonal ranges. This are attributed to the recharge of water sources during previous months. The irrigated cropping livelihood zone has a minimum trekking distance of one kilometre, whereas the Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest average of 5 km. 2.2.3 Livestock Access Generally, trekking distance for livestock has been steady and favourable following the above performance of the last three consecutive rainfall seasons. This has resulted to improved rangeland resources across the livelihood zones. The current return distance for livestock from grazing fields to water points was 6 km, 11 percent rise as compared to the previous month. The reported distance within seasonal ranges however slightly below the long term mean by six percent (Figure 7). The pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average distance of 6.8 km while livelihood recorded the shortest average distance of two kilometres Figure 8. This is due to the general regeneration of pastures and recharging of open water sources across all livelihood zones. Households Distance to Water Source in Km Figure 6: Households Average Distance to Water Sources Apr May Return Grazing Distance(KM) Figure 7: Livestock Average Distance from Grazing Fields to Water Points Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition The general body condition for all species of livestock was good to fair across the livelihood zones. Stable, compared to the previous month which was mostly good, BCS-3 and BCS-4 across the livelihood zones. Figure 8 The current improvement in the status of livestock body condition was attributed to the availability of water for livestock and improving pasture conditions in the county. (Note: BCS Livestock Body Condition Score: BCS 1 Very Poor (Emaciated) BCS 2 Poor BCS 3 Fair BCS 4 Good BCS 5- Very Good). 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases During the month, no outbreak of notifiable livestock diseases was reported. Households reported only normal endemic cases across the livelihood zones, which included contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), Newcastle in poultry, mange, helminthiasis, heartwater and sheep and goat 3.1.3 Milk Production The current milk production at household level was averagely 2.3 litres which was stable as compared with the previous month. The milk production was above the long term Mean by 38 percent. The milk production was lowest in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone, averaging 1litre and this was occasioned by the minimal numbers of livestock owned homesteads insecurity issues. Improvement in livestock conditions across livelihood zones had been attributed to this trend, and this was expected to continue in the next two months. Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest production of 5.75 litres followed by irrigated Pastoral livelihood, which had production at 2.3 litres while the least production was in the agropastoral livelihood zone at 1litre.s 3.2 Rain-fed Crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops Major crops grown in the county are maize, beans, and tomatoes. Most livelihood zones grow maize and beans, including mixed farming, agro-pastoral, and irrigated cropping. Tomatoes are mainly done under irrigation in the irrigated cropping. Most of the maize in the irrigated livelihood zones is for commercial purposes. The farmers have started preparing their farms in anticipation for the short rains. Figure 8: Livestock Body Condition Figure 9: Milk Production Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock Marketing 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The average price of medium sized bull was at Kshs. 24,500 a marginal decrease as compared to the previous month. The prices have generally above seasonal ranges during the year attributed to the improved rangeland resources supported good body condition with maximum body weight across all the livestock species. Prices varied across markets, with Kamurio and Nginyang markets recording low prices ranging between Ksh 10,500 18,500. Other markets, which realized high prices, included Marigat, Yatya, Kokwatoto, Kolloa, Loruk, and Sibilio. The prices ranged between Ksh 25,900 and Ksh 52,000 for medium-sized cattle. This current average price outdoes the average by 46 percent against the STA at this time of the year. 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The favourable browse conditions have sustained healthy and fatty body conditions for goats which in turn resulted to better prices at the markets. During the month, the average price of a medium size goat was going for Ksh 4,400 which relatively stable, compared to the previous month average price of Ksh 4,380. reported average price approximately 47 percent higher than the short-term average of Ksh 2,995, with goats pastoral livelihood zone recording the uppermost price average at Ksh 4,483. These better prices are equated to the improvement in the body condition of the livestock and also to buyers from outside the county who purchase the goats in bulk. Average Cattle Selling Price (KES) lower Limit Figure 10: Average Cattle Market Price Trends 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500 Mar Apr May Jun Nov Dec Average Goat Prices (Ksh.) Upper llimit Figure 11: Goats Market Price Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 4.2.0. Crop Prices 4.2.1 Maize Across most of the monitored markets, the retail price ranged from Ksh 40 50per kg, with the exception of Ngoron and Kamurio markets, where retail prices averaged in the range of Ksh 55 70. The average price for maize in the month under review stood at Ksh 50.7; this was a minimal decrease from the previous month that stood at 53.1 Figure 13. Current prices were 32 percent lower compared to the short- term mean, and the prices recorded were attributed to the maize held by traders since they are currently sourcing relatively cheap maize from the neighbouring counties as well as Uganda. The highest was in the pastoral livelihood zone that had an average price of Kshs. 52 per kilogram (kg) and the lowest in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.40 per kg. 4.2.2 Beans Prices The average price per kilogram of beans retailed at around Ksh147.3, which is relatively comparable to the preceding month average price Ksh 152 and stable in comparison to the short-term average, Figure 15. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh 155 while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.135. The stability in market prices for beans and other crop produce were attributed to the harvesting of beans and green grams in the county, coupled with supplementation by the commodity coming neighbouring counties. The farming of beans in Irrigated crop livelihood zone has supported availability and ease access of beans in areas of Marigat and its surroundings. 4. 3 Terms of Trade Household terms of trade (purchasing power) is the volume of cereals especially maize that an income obtained by selling one goat can buy. Current household terms of trade continue to gradual increase. During the month the farmer was able to buy 86.8 kgs of maize from the income got by selling one mature goat. This was a marginal increase as compared to the preceding month, the terms of trade have been on an increasing trend surpassing the seasonal ranges by July 2024. This trend is accredited to the better livestock prices and decreasing maize prices in the county as shown in Figure 16. The irrigated cropping livelihood recorded the highest terms of trade at 104, while Pastoral livelihood zone had the lowest at 85. 110.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Maize Prices (KSH) Figure 12: Maize Market Prices Average Beans Price (Ksh) Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 13: Household Terms of Trade Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption There was an increase of 10 percent in average milk consumption per household per day at 2.2 litres compared to the previous month at 2 litres. The Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average of 5.75 followed by pastoral at 2.l litres while the agro pastoral had the least of 1litre. The reported average was 51 percent above the long-term average as shown in Figure improved consumption was as a result of availability of milk at household levels due to improved livestock body conditions and the calving season in the county. 5.2 Food consumption 5.2.1 Food Consumption Score The average food consumption score for the county was at 41.2 which is acceptable. However, there were 1.9, 43 and 51.9 of households with the poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption scores respectively. All the households with poor scores were in the pastoral livelihood zones. The Food consumption pattern of the households remained stable in Irrigated but showed a minimal shift Pastoral agropastoral livelihood zones. The current food consumption score is stable in comparison to the previous month. The stability is attributed to the availability of milk, meat due the festive season in the pastoral, leafy vegetable as well as favorable food prices across the livelihood zones as shown in Figure 18. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Milk ConsumptionHHDayLitre Figure 14: Average Household Milk Production Per Day 48.1 49.5 60.0 40.0 100.0 Pastoral Figure 15: Food Consumption Patterns Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition Status There was an improvement in the proportion of the under-five children sampled at risk of malnutrition in the month under review at17.9 in comparison to the previous month at 18.66Figure 19. This was high against the long term mean and slightly outside of the seasonal range. This decrease in proportion was due to availability of milk at household levels and the nutrition outreaches in parts of Tirioko and Ribkwo wards in pastoral livelihood zone. However, Akoret sentinel reported the highest rates at 47.7 percent which were mainly in areas of Akoret, Chepkererat, Kapedo North, and Kamurio, Ribko ward also reported 28.8 reported in Komolion, all being in the pastoral livelihood zone. The causes of these high cases are poor child care and certain harmful hygiene practices due alcoholism. 5.3.2 Health In the reporting period, Akoret sentinel site had an outbreak of malaria, although other illnesses such as URTI, flu, and diarrheal were reported across livelihood zones. Diarrheal occurred because of the use of water from open sources, poor hygiene practices at the household level, and most households were taking untreated water. Most households have very poor water quality, especially in Baringo South, North, Tiaty East, and Tiaty West sub-counties. 5. 4 Coping strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The coping strategies index (CSI) is a simple and easy-to-use indicator of household stress due to a lack of food or money to buy food. During the reporting month the average coping strategy index was at 11.7 a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 11.1. Larger proportion of households about percent reported stress coping, 18.5 percent applied crisis coping and 15.9 did not coping mechanisms. Households in the Pastoral livelihood employed coping strategies at 13.3 followed by the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 9.4 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least at 2.6 (Figure 20). Figure 17: Coping strategy index Pastoral Proportion of Cildren at risk of Malnutriotion in lower limit Figure 16: Prevalence of Children U5 at risk of Malnutrition Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food interventions 6.1.1 General food relief There was food distribution to 40 schools in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West and Mogotio by Kenya Red Cross Kenya 6.1.2 Social protection Give Direct is implementing a none conditional cash transfer program in the Baringo North sub- county, Saimo Soi ward, Akorian Location to 221householdss each receiving the first tranche of Ksh 20,000 and enrolled additional 435 households who are expected to receive their first tranche in November, each beneficiary is expected to receive a total of Kshs 110,000 in three tranches. Cash transfer to 1060HHs in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Mogotio by Kenya Red Cross Kenya First cycle of cash transfer to 2864 households in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West and Tiaty East each household receiving Ksh 5,000 for four cycles by Action Against Hunger disburse on 31st October 2024. The 16 households had sim cards (Mpesa) lines not active by date of disbursement.. Cash transfer to 2880 households in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West and Tiaty East each household receiving Ksh 5,000 for four cycles by WFP 6.2 Non-food Interventions Agriculture The County Government through the Department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) are giving out fruit seedlings and bean seeds in 8 wards Training of mother-to-mother support groups on climate smart agriculture, good agro-economic practices and post-harvest loss practices in Churo Amaya and TangulbeiKorossi ward by Action Against Hunger. Health and Nutrition Acceleration and Support of Supervision of Vitamin Supplementation and Deworming County by the Training of Community Health promoters on WASH and Nutrition Module in Tiaty East ( Kokwototo Chepkalacha) and Tiaty West (Chepturu Kamsuk) by MOH with support from Action Against Hunger Action Against Hunger Supported Health and Nutrition assessment combined with health Education as well as Vitamin A Supplementation in hard-to-reach areas in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West and Tiaty East Training of 84 CHVs on MIYCN-e across Tiaty East and West by Action Against Hunger Formulation of county outreach coordination forum by MOH with support from Action Against Hunger Water and Sanitation Action Against Hunger supported mapping of all water infrastructures and developing ArcGIS database for Baringo County. Drought Risk Management The Baringo NDMA office in collaboration with Self Help Africa, Action Against Hunger and Emergency Response Locust Project carried out the county Participatory Scenario planning. The exercise led to the developing Advisories that will help in drought response. Dissemination of PSP advisories to Stakeholders by Kenya Red Cross. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 Livestock The County Government through the Department of Agriculture is implementing the Emergency Response Locust Project (ERLP) are doing breed improvement and restocking buy giving 440 dairy goats, 432 local Goats and Galla goats to farmers in 8 wards 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement Calmness prevailed across the county with no major insecurity incidents reported in the county during the month of October 2024. 7.2 Food Security Prognosis Kenya Meteorological department climate outlook for November 2024 indicates that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Kisii, Nyamira); the Lake Victoria Basin (Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Busia); the Southern and Central Rift Valley (Nakuru, Narok, Baringo, western Laikipia): Rainfall with occasional breaks is expected during the month which is likely to be near to above the long-term average received during the same period. Livestock that internally moved in search of pastures and water are likely expected to return to homesteads except in conflicts prone areas. Vegetation condition and water sources are likely to dwindle until the onset of the October to December 2024 rainfall is realized. Livestock prices are likely to maintain above average trend through end of December 2024. Crop commodities such as maize and vegetables to sustain stable trend and below average through end of January 2025. Milk production is expected to decline as the sunny weather condition prevail coupled with weaning of young ones. County department of Agriculture estimates that labour-based activities such as land preparation and weeding in irrigated crop zone is likely to peak during the next 1 2 months. There is likely of resource - based conflict along the county borders as livestock migration is likely to occur if the 2024 short rains onset delayed further. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin October 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Provision of water treatment drugs at water sources and household level to minimize outbreaks of waterborne diseases. 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Support upscaling of integrated outreaches where the community travels long distances to get health services Improve the resilience of vulnerable groups through nutrition education for caregivers Promote proper utilization of food, especially the indigenous foodstuff that is grown locally. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Mopping up of vaccination activities to be done in areas that have endemic livestock diseases. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through the provision of pasture seeds, hay-bailing machines, and construction of pasture storage structures. Promote rangeland restoration in the Pastoral areas, especially in areas that are experiencing massive presence of invasive species. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Enhance post-harvest management measures to minimize post-harvest crop losses. This includes the construction of cereal stores and the purchase and distribution of hermetic bags. Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought Coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity to address drought hazards. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness. Support dissemination of participatory scenario planning key messages and advisories.",
            "Baringo 2024 December EW Bulletin.pdf": "Baringo County Drought EWS Bulletin October 2024 National Drought Management Authority BARINGO COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER 2024 DECEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation EW Phase Classification Environmental indicators are stable although showing a deterioration trend following a below average performance of the 2024 short rains. The season was characterized with depressed and erratic with delayed onset and early cessation. Malnutrition prevalence remained critical for children under five years of age. Livestock prices remained above average and food prices are below average. The county is classified in Normal drought phase with a deteriorating trend. Biophysical Indicators Sunny intervals prevailed throughout the month and forage condition and water sources are deteriorating. Trekking distances both households and livestock are within the normal ranges Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was fair to good Milk production and consumption was above normal across the county. There were no unusual livestock death cases reported. Access indicators Goat to maize terms of trade were favourable and above Utilization indicators Prevalence of children aged 12 59 months at risk of malnutrition was critical based on mid upper arm circumference. The copping strategy index (CSI) for households was within the normal seasonal range. Larger proportion of households had borderline and acceptable food consumption score LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS PASTORAL NORMAL DETERIORATING AGRO PASTORAL NORMAL DETERIORATING IRRIGATED CROP NORMAL DETERIORATING COUNTY NORMAL DETERIORATING Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Ranges Average Rainfall () 51 - 75 Percent water in the 40 - 60 80 - 100 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal Livestock Condition (BCS) 3 - 4 Milk Production (Ltr HHMonth) 1.2 1.7 Livestock deaths (for drought) No death No death Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 36 - 57 Water for Households- trekking distance (km) 1.6 5.8 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Consumption (Litres) 0.9 1.5 Nutrition status children 6-59 months at risk of malnutrition by numbered MUAC ( at risk) 18.47 14.9 11..27 19.0 0 - 21 Borderline 21.5 - 35 Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation PlantingWe9eding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Plantingweeding A Vision 2030 Flagship Project Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance October December 2024 rainfall seasons delayed onset and earlier than normal cessation characterized with erratic and depressed amounts. Sunny intervals prevailed throughout the month of December 2024 across livelihood zones of the county. January normally marks the beginning of the short dry spell. Amount Rainfall Spatial Distribution Satellite imagery driven data exhibited that the amounts received were approximately 81, 42 and 52 percent below the long-term average (2000 2018) during the first, second and third dakeds of the month at the same time of the year as shown in Figure 1 above. Kenya meteorology outlook released on 30th December 2024 Ref. No. KMDFCST4- 2025MO01 showed precipitation estimates recorded in most parts of Baringo County were significantly below average which was 51 75 percent of the normal. This indicates that earlier than normal cessation as usually more rains is received during the month. The month of December normally y markets the end of the short rains season. Both temporal and spatial distribution were poor across the livelihood zones. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Kenya: Baringo County(Jan - Dec.2024) RFE (2024) RFEAVG NDVIAVG Figure 1: Satellite Rainfall Estimate (mm) Source: (https:earlywarning.usgs.govfewsewx) Figure 2: Percentage Rainfall: Source Kenya Meteorological Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition The rangeland vegetation quality was relative stable owing to the above average performance of the last three consecutive rainfall seasons. However, due to currently dry and sunny intervals being experienced resulting to high evapotranspiration which in turn is triggering deterioration in greenness content of vegetation and low soil moisture The satellite imagery data indicated that vegetation condition had high quality index from April 2024. Notable decline was observed during the month of July and November 2024 attributed to dry spell and delayed onset of the 2024 short rains season. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value as at 31st December 2024 was 0.67 which above the 2002 2022 mean which was 0.57. Data derived from satellite shows that vegetation greenness is above normal in most of the rangeland within the county as per vegetation condition index for October 2024. However, the county is heavily infested with variety of invasive plant species such as prosopis juliflora (Mathenge) that are evergreen species even during the dry spell. Figure Vegetation Condition Index Trends (Source eVIIRS https:earlywarning.usgs.govfewsew) Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 2.1.1 Field Observation Pasture and Browse Condition The cumulative effects of the previous rainfall season had significantly supported favourable vegetation growth across the livelihood zones. However, the 2024 October to December rainfall season had delayed onset and poor distribution both in space and time thus supporting limited vegetation rejuvenation. sunny intervals that prevailed across the county had resulted to rapid deterioration vegetation transpiration. According sentinel site data for the month of December 2024, approximately 33.3 and 74.1 percent of the sampled key informants responded that pasture and browse condition was good respectively Figure 4). Majority of the community members interviewed project that further deterioration of pasture and browse is expected in several places till the onset of the expected 2025 long rains season probably in April 2025. 2.2 Water Resources 2.2.1 Water Sources The main sources of water that were relied by larger proportion of households during the month were pans, traditional river wells, boreholes, lakes and rivers. The sentinel site data indicated a slight increase in usage of boreholes most probably attributed to poor quality of water in open surface water sources such as pans and dams due to livestock wading into pans and dams during watering times thus defecating in or around the pans or dams. This in turn resulted to water turbidity water contamination. Pans and traditional rivers wells were relied on by approximately 22 25.4 percent of household for domestic and livestock water use. Another 11 13.6 percent of the sampled households reported getting water from rivers and boreholes. Lakes contributed water to approximately 13.6 percent of the households especially in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 5). Fetching water for domestic use is a responsibility of women and girls however watering livestock is a key responsibility of young men in the community. 33.3 66.7 Pasture Condition 74.1 25.9 Browse Condition Figure 4: Forage Condition Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Traditional River Wells Lakes Shallow wells Springs Figure 5: Frequently Used Water Sources Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 2.2.2 Household Water Access and Utilization The current average return (two way) household trekking distance to nearby water sources edged up by six percent to 3.3 kilometres (km) from 3.1 km recorded in the month of November 2024. The increase in distances is attributed to decline in water levels in open surface water sources due to frequent use coupled with evaporation occasioned by exposure to windy and sunlight as hot and sunny weather intervals persist during the period under review. Despite the slight increase, current average distance remained within the seasonal range and 10 percent below the long-term average at the same time of the year (Figure 6). Kapenguria, Orus and Mukutani wards reported long distances ranging between 4 4.7 km while Kiserian and Komollion recorded lowest distances at around 2 2.3 km owing to close proximity to Lake Baringo and River Parkerra. Among the sampled households, 65 percent of them reported fetching 20 to 60 litres of water per day which translate to 4 12 litres per person per day for an average household size of 5 persons. Only 20 percent of the households reported water consumption of 15 20 litres per person per day which is within the recommended SPHERE standards. 2.2.3 Livestock Water Access Trekking distances for livestock to water sources from the current grazing fields are stable compared to last month. The current return average distance was 6.1 km which comparable to last month average return distance of 6.2 km. Notable long distances for livestock to water points from grazing fields were recorded in Tiaty sub county averaging households average distance, current average grazing distance remained lower than the long-term average since February 2024 with current return average distance being 14 percent below the long- term average at similar period of the year (Figure 7). The below average distances have been sustained by good performances of the previous three consecutive rainfall seasons that supported significant forage improvement and water sources recharge. Households Average Distance to Water Source in Km Figure 6: Trends in Distances for Domestic Water Return Average Grazing Distance(Km) Figure 7: Average Grazing Distances for Livestock Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition was within the normal ranges at this time of the year attributed to availability of forage and water across the livelihood zones. According to community key informants, 51.9 percent of livestock had moderate body condition (neither fat nor thin) while 48.1 percent said that their livestock had good smooth appearance. In Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zone, goat and sheep exhibit good body condition. In addition, currently livestock are trekking within normal distances in search of water and forage which in turn supported less fatigue thus good to fair body conditions. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases There was no livestock disease outbreak reported across the livelihood zones however community disease reporters continued to report prevalence of endemic diseases such as, Newcastle in poultry, sheep and goat pox, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), although livestock mortalities were average in all species across the livelihood zones 3.1.3 Milk Production The previous rainfall seasons supported improvement in rangeland conditions which resulted in livestock good health, breeding and calving. This in turn supported improved milk production at household level. Household milk production was stable averaging at 2 litres per household per when compared litres recorded in the month of November 2024. The milk production was above the long term Mean by 33 percent. The milk production lowest Cropping livelihood zone at 1.3 litres per household per day. Households in Pastoral reported average production 2.1 litres while those in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had 3.8 litres on average. Households reported minimal sales of milk with a litre retailing at around Ksh 75 80 per litre 3.2 Rain-fed Crop production 3.2.1 Stage and Condition of Food Crops No rain fed crops in the farms at the moment however, irrigated horticultural and commercial crops such as onions, tomatoes and water melons are currently .at varies stages in Parkerra irrigation scheme. Milk ProductionHHDayLitre Figure 8: Milk Production Trends Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 4.0.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1.0 Livestock Marketing 4.1.1 Cattle Prices. The market retail prices for cattle have continued to be above average since the beginning of the year. The favorable prices are attributed to good performance of the last three rainfall seasons that good health and good to fair body conditions for livestock. In addition, cattle sizes continue to limit cattle sales thus limited supply at the markets. During the month, medium size cattle was averagely retailing at Ksh 26,980 which is six percent higher than the November 2024 average retail price which was 25,480. Low prices noted Kamurio, Nginyang, Chepngeret markets with prices ranging between Ksh 10,500 to 18,000 while Loruk, Sibilio and Yatya recorded high prices fluctuating between Ksh 36,000 to 55,000. In comparison to the long-term average, the current average cattle retail price remained above average by approximately 56 percent at the same time of the year (Figure 9). 4.1.2 Goat Prices. The selling prices for goats like cattle also sustained above average prices since January 2024 driven by good to fair body conditions across the livelihood zones owing favorable rangeland conditions. The live weight market retail prices for goats during the month under review averaged at Ksh 4,500 for healthy and mature goat. The current average recorded price is relatively comparable to last month average of about Ksh 4,522 per health and mature goat. Among the monitored markets, Kamurio and Marigat markets had the lowest prices fluctuating between Ksh 3,000 to 3,525 for medium size goat. Highest prices reported Yatya, Kokwototo and Loruk markets with prices ranging between Ksh 5,150 to Ksh 7,000. The average retail price recorded during the month was higher than the long-term average by 50 percent at the same period of the year (Figure 10). Cattle Average Price (Ksh) lower Limit Figure 9: Cattle Average Selling Prices at the Market 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Goat Average Selling Prices (Ksh.) Upper llimit Figure 10: Goats Market Average Selling Price Trend Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 4.2.0. Crop Prices 4.2.1 Maize The market average retail price for dry white maize and other cereals sustained lower than normal prices across the county since April 2024. The below average prices are attributed previous harvest within and outside the county. However, an increase has been noticed in maize price during the month under review in several markets. The current average retail price for a kilo of dry white maize stands at 62 which is approximately 22 percent higher than the average price recorded during the month of November 2024 which was Ksh 50. The increase in prices is attributed to decline in maize stocks at the household level thus more households are relying on markets for staple food commodities. Highest price of about Ksh 90 per kilogram recorded in Kamurio and Kolloa markets in Pastoral livelihood zone. Favourable prices were recorded in Marigat, Loruk, Siblio, Kiserian at around 40 65 per kilogram. 4.2.2 Beans Prices Beans prices have been dwindling since June 2024. The heavy downpour experienced in April and May 2024 affected beans performance in the farms that resulting to poor yields. The current average retail price for a kilogram of beans was going at Ksh 157 which is relatively comparable to Ksh 162 recorded in November 2024. High prices of about Ksh 180 to Ksh 200 were reported in markets such as Kamurio, Sirata and Kiserian. Kolloa, Marigat, Loruk markets had the lowest selling prices for beans with a kilogram retailing at Ksh 140 to Ksh 150. Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones recorded the highest average prices of Ksh 157 160 for a kilogram of beans while irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least prices of Ksh.140. The current average selling price is comparable to the short average (STA) at the same period of year (Figure 12). 100.0 Maize Average Selling prices (Ksh) Figure 11: Maize Average Selling Price Figure 12: Beans Prices Beans Average Price (Ksh Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 4. 3 Terms of Trade The term of trade is the ratio of goat to maize which what amount of maize a household can buy from income of one health medium sized goat. The goat to maize terms of trade declined to 73 kilograms from 89 kilograms of maize purchased per goat sold. The decline is attributed to notably increase in maize prices in several markets especially Pastora livelihood zone. The current average terms of trade compared to the long- term average, remained above the average by 59 percent at the same time of the year (Figure 12). The poor performance of 2024 short rains season is most likely to trigger further increase for staple food commodities through August 2025 as the household exhaust their stocks. 5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption The current milk production continued to be above the long- term average. This is attributed to fair body condition coupled with calving of cows, camels and kidding of goats has sustained the above average milk production in county. household production during the month of December 2024 averagely stands at 1.9 litres per household per day compared to 1.8 litres recorded in November 2024. The Irrigated livelihood zone had the highest average of 2.5 followed by pastoral at 1.9 litres while the Agro pastoral had the least of less than a litre. The reported average was 58 percent above the long-term average as shown (Figure 14). Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Milk ConsumptionHHDayLitre Figure 14: Household Milk Production Trends Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 13: Goats -to - Maize Ratio Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 5.2 Food Consumption 5.2.1 Food Consumption Score The Food Consumption Score (FCS) is a proxy indicator that aggregates household-level data on the diversity and frequency of food groups consumed over the previous seven days, which is then weighted according to the relative nutritional value of the consumed groups. consumption patterns varied among the communities which is more linked to community food availability, access, choices and preference. On average, percent households consumption. means consumption staples vegetables every day and never or very seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. Around 48 and 47.6 of the households had borderline and acceptable food consumption. Borderline food consumption implies consumption of staples and vegetables every day, accompanied by oil and pulses a few times a week. In reference to livelihood zones, all sampled households in Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone had acceptable food consumption indication that they are consuming staples and vegetables everyday accompanied with meat or dairy products. In Agro Pastoral, 6.7 percent had poor food consumption, 70 percent had borderline and 23.3 had acceptable while 4.8 percent of households in Pastoral livelihood zone had poor, 51.7 percent borderline and 43.5 percent had acceptable (Figure 15). 5.3. Health and Nutrition Status 5.3.1 Nutrition Status Households across the livelihood zones reported taking 1 2 meals per day which is below the recommended 3 -4 meals per day. The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition stands at 18.5 percent as measured using MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference). This indicates critical situation as per the integrated phase classification (IPC) manual. High malnutrition rates were Pastoral areas Akoret, Ribko, Komollion, Orus and Saima Soi. The high malnutrition rates can be linked to prevalence of diseases, low dietary diversity, unsafe water for drinking and poor child maternal practices coupled with high poverty rates. In comparison to long term average, the current average lobal acute malnutrition (GAM) rates based on mid-upper arm circumference is approximately 24 percent above the long-term average at the same time of the year (Figure 16). 43.551.7 23.3 70.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 120.0 Proportion of Households Figure 15: Food Consumption Patterns Per Livelihood Zone Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in lower limit Figure 16: Children aged 12 - 59 months Nutritional Status Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 5.3.2 Health Kenya health information system (KHIS) aggregate data for the month of October and November 2024, indicated that the three top diseases for children under five years and general population were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections, Malaria, Pneumonia and diarrhea. Upper respiratory tract infection was the most common ailment reported at facility level. The total cumulative cases reported for the two months for URTI was 20,782 and 36,357 for under five and population above five years respectively. Confirmed malaria was more prevalent in people above five years standing at 5,555 cases against 2004 cases for children under five year (Table 1). Sentinel site data showed that more children aged 12 59 months were reported to suffered fever with chills like malaria in several places of the county. Table 1: Morbidity for Under-fives and General Population for October December 2024. Disease 5 years 5 years Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 20,782 36,357 Diarrhea 2,998 3,200 Confirmed Malaria 2,004 5,555 Pneumonia 2,749 5,843 5. 4 Coping Strategies 5.4.1 Coping Strategy Index The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) is an indicator of a households food security assessing the extent to which households use harmful coping strategies when they do not have enough food or enough money to buy food. The current mean rCSI stands at 11.27 compared to 11.59 recorded in November 2024. Majority of the households continue to engage in food related stress and crisis coping mechanisms to mitigate shocks of lack of food or money to buy food. The proportion of households that engaged in stress coping was 55.13 percent, while around 25.1 percent applied crisis above coping mechanisms and 19.77percent of the households reported that they did not engage in any coping strategies. Crisis coping strategies mostly involve resorting to unsustainable negative coping strategies like borrowing food, reducing meal quantity for adults and skipping meals in order to meet minimum households food needs. Households in the Pastoral livelihood zone employed more coping strategies at 12.8 followed by the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 9.8 while the Irrigated cropping zone employed the least at 2.5 (Figure 16). Figure 17: Food related Coping Strategies Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES. 6.1 Food and Non-Interventions Sector Iintervention Targeted Beneficiaries Implementer Wards Nutrition Integrated medical outreaches in 20 sites CHPCHA review meetings and Formation of Community Support Groups MIYCN-E Training of 58 CHPs in Baringo South Action Against Hunger (with support from USAID-BHA Tiaty EastWest, Baringo North and South 4 CUs of Kokwototo, Chepturu, Chepkalacha Kamusuk Distribution of WASH NFIs Hygiene promotion 2880 Households also targeted with cash transfer (Each HH receiving a 20 litre jerrican, litre bucket, months supply of soap and water treatment chemicals) 7200 beneficiaries Action Against Hunger (with support from BHA) Tiaty East and West, Baringo NorthSouth 4 CUs of Kokwototo, Chepturu, Chepkalacha and Kamusuk Social Protection Cash transfer to households in Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty West and Tiaty household receiving Ksh 5,000 for four cycles 2880 households Action Against Hunger (with support from BHA) All wards in Baringo NorthSouth Tiaty EastWest Food security livelihoods Training mother-to- mother support groups on climate smart agriculture, VSLAsincome generating activities, Agro- economic practices and post- harvest loss practices Training of Veterinary Staff Community Disease Reporters on Participatory Disease Surveillance. 5 mother to mother support groups (107 mothers) 20 Vet Staffs and 20 Community Disease Reporters Action Against Hunger (support from SIDA) Action Against Hunger (with support from BHA) Churo Amaya TangulbeiKorossi All sub-counties Livestock Vaccination against conducted in parts of Baringo Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 InsecurityConflictHuman Displacement No incidences of shocks and hazards that were reported during the month under review 7.2 Food Security Prognosis Kenya Meteorological department climate outlook for January 2025 indicates that the county will experience predominantly sunny and dry conditions through the month: Water sources are likely to rapidly decline and even vegetation condition will further deteriorate triggering livestock migration. Milk production and consumption is expected to reduce at household level as livestock migrate in search of water and forage. Livestock prices are likely to maintain above average trend through end of January 2025. Water for Irrigation will likely decline thus likely to occasion water stress to irrigated crops especially in Parkerra Irrigation scheme. Staple food prices are expected to rise in the market as household stock delete thus reliance on markets for food through January 2025. There is likely of resource - based conflict along the county borders as livestock migration is likely to occur from January 2025 in search of water and forage. Baringo county drought EWS bulletin December 2024 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1.0 Proposed Recommendations 8.1.1. Water Sector Solarization and repair of broken boreholes 8.1.2. Nutrition and Health Public education on dietary diversity, maternal and hygiene practices especially for rural households. Supporting integrated medical outreaches in hard-to-reach areas of the county. Scale up of nutritional interventions to reduce malnutrition rates. 8.1.3. Livestock and Veterinary sector Support commercial livestock offtake before the dry spell intensify which is likely to negatively affected livestock body condition. Enhance pasture establishment and conservation through the provision of pasture seeds, hay-bailing machines, and construction of pasture storage structures. Support deworming of goats and sheep in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones. 8.1.4. Agriculture Sector Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum, and Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages. 8.1.5 Drought Coordination Enhance drought preparedness measures including doing resilient investments that will go a long way in enhancing the local capacity to address drought hazards. Review of drought contingency and DRR plans at the ward level which will enhance community drought preparedness."
        }
    },
    "National DEWS": {
        "DEWS_2020": {
            "February_2020.pdf": "February 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS January is normally a dry month across the arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties. This year, however, the 2019 October-November- December (OND) short rains season which usually terminates in December extended to January 2020. As a result, by the end of the month most ASAL counties had received cumulative rainfall that was above their January long term average. Return distances to water for households have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL counties. Similarly, in nearly all ASAL counties access to water for livestock is currently below the seasonal average. Early onset of the October-November- December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall coupled with the above normal rainfall performance during the months of October to January has positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted improvement overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Generally the October to December rainy season has been favourable to crop production and the condition of crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is promising hence households expect to get a good harvest. In parts of the ASAL counties, farmers have already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was ongoing. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. Following the good rains received since October 2019, environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, currently all counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties and remaining stable in 17 counties. Drought phase classification, January 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Isiolo Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Tana River, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall During the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, most arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties recorded enhanced rainfall that was also fairly distributed both in time and space. Normally, January is a dry month but in 2020 most ASAL counties received rainfall that was above their January long term average. For instance, counties such as: Garissa, Kajiado, Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni and Kilifi received rainfall that exceeded 125 percent of their long term mean for January. Vegetation condition Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late December 2019 with that in late January 2020. The good performance of the October-November-December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has led to significant rejuvenation of vegetation in the entire ASAL region. Therefore, as at end of January 2020 all arid and semi-arid counties were categorized in the above normal vegetation greenness band which is similar to the situation reported last month. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2019 and January 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. For example, in Baringo County most water pans and dams are holding water amounts of between 70 and 80 percent of their full capacity, while in Marsabit 80 percent of all open water sources are fully recharged and in Kitui County pans and dams have also impounded water to above normal levels. In most ASAL counties, majority of the main water sources are likely to last for more than three months. Livestock production The October-November-December rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in January in almost all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in during the October to December rainfall season. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2020 Pasture Browse Turkana Tana River Kwale Laikipia Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Lamu Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Narok Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Embu West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Mandera Tana River Turkana Meru Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Makueni Wajir Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Samburu Kitui West Pokot Lamu Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As presented in Table 2, livestock body condition has continued on an improving trend which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2020 Cattle Goats Laikipia Mandera Tana River Turkana Kwale Marsabit Narok Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Embu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Nyeri West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Tana River Turkana Embu Baringo Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Kwale Makueni Wajir Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Samburu Kitui West Pokot Meru Milk production Table 3 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Isiolo County, for example, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 32 percent to 3.7 litres in January from 2.8 litres in December. Likewise in Kajiado, average milk production per household per day rose by 25 percent from 2.4 litres in December to 3 litres in January while in Kilifi, Makueni, Kitui, Tana River and Narok average milk production increased by 25, 23, 18, 14 and 12 percent respectively. However, milk production fell in a few counties such as Turkana, Kwale, Meru and Taita Taveta. For instance, in Turkana, average milk production per household per day reduced by 10 percent from 2.1 litres in December to 1.9 litres in January. All the same, the amount of milk produced during the month under analysis was above the five-year average by 12 percent which was accredited to availability of browse and pasture that was also easily accessible to livestock coupled with the good calving rate recorded in January. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Kitui Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Marsabit Garissa Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Turkana Cattle prices As shown Table 4, enhanced market prices continued to be observed in cattle prices driven by improved livestock body condition as a result of good availability of forage and water. For example, in Samburu County the current average price for cattle was above the 2016 - 2018 average by 24 percent, similar to Mandera where average cattle prices increased by 13 percent to Kshs 20,500 in January from Kshs 18,100 in December. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Marsabit Meru Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia Wajir West Pokot Lamu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Makueni Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Kitui Turkana Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Wajir Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in January in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review goat prices in nealy all ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition. For example, in Kajiado County the average price of a two-year old goat in January was Kshs 4,660 which was 36 percent above the three-year average price of Kshs 3,430. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Turkana Kwale Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Wajir West Pokot Lamu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Makueni Narok Embu Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Mandera Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Turkana Garissa Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Baringo Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Crop production Generally the October to December rainy season has been favourable to crop production and the condition of crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is promising hence households expect to get a good harvest. For instance, in Embu (Mbeere) farmers have already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was ongoing. In Kitui crops are in good condition and harvesting of maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams has started. Similarly in Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams were at the physiological maturity stage and harvesting was ongoing. In January 2020, Desert Locust infestations were reported in a number of the arid and semi-arid counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Samburu, Baringo, Meru, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui and Tharaka Nithi. The infestation poses a substantial risk to food security and livelihoods of the ASAL communities who are mainly pastoralists and stallholder farmers. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In close to 70 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in January were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Mandera Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Makueni Samburu Lamu Taita Taveta Embu Tana River Meru West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Narok Nyeri Turkana Wajir Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Marsabit Meru Tana River Narok West Pokot Taita Taveta Kajiado Turkana Wajir Access to water Return distances to water for both households and livestock was largely favourable as most parts of the ASAL region continued to receive significant amounts of rainfall. For instance, in Garissa, the average return distance from household to water sources reduced from 4.2 km in December to 3.2 km in January, while in Narok the average distance for households declined by 10 percent from 1.7 to 1.5 km. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to water sources Kwale Taita Taveta Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, River, Garissa, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, West Pokot, Meru (Meru North), Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere) Samburu Narok Garissa Kajiado Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui, Kwale, (Mbeere), Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, (Meru North), Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Tana River, Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Baringo, Lamu, Mandera Table 8 shows the trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water. Average return distances to water for livestock in many areas reduced in January as a result of the off season rains received during the month. In most ASAL counties access to water for livestock was below the seasonal average. For example, compared to the long term average trekking distance for the month of January the current average distance for livestock in Marsabit was shorter by 62 percent. Also in Kajiado County, the average trekking distance to water points for livestock of 4.6 km was 43 percent shorter than the normal distance of 8 km. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources Kwale Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Marsabit, Nyeri, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Mandera, Tharaka Nithi Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Samburu Turkana West Pokot Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, River , Wajir Terms of trade In almost 80 percent of the ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) improved or remained stable in January 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month The lagest improvements were in Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Tharaka, where terms of trade appreciated by 61, 32 and 26 percent respectively. In 17 counties, the current ToT were above or close to the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers. In most counties the improvement in ToT is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 9 summarizes the movements of ToT on the previous month and the trend. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, Wajir, Tana River West Pokot Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Kilifi Kitui Makueni Garissa Kitui Kwale Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Wajir, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia , Meru Narok, Turkana West Pokot Tana River Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Mandera Kitui Kajiado Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Marsabit Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Makueni Samburu Kilifi Baringo Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received since October 2019, environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, currently all counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, January 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Isiolo Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Tana River, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Projected food security situation The rains received during the period from October to January is likely to sustain good conditions of pasture and browse which in turn is expected to maintain good body condition for livestock thus improved productivity. Livestock body condition is expected to remain good to fair in the next three months due to the current good quantity and quality of browse and pasture in nearly all ASAL counties. Market prices both for livestock and food commodities are likely to remain stable which will most probably translate to favourable terms of trade for livestock keepers. Owing to the expected good livestock body condition and stable calving rates, households will be able to produce and consume more milk which is likely to keep malnutrition rates in children at low levels. Desert locust infestation which is currently being experienced in the ASAL areas is likely to result in damage to browse and pasture and might also impact negatively on the late planted crops. Although, so far the effects of the desert locust invasion on both livestock and crop production has been minimal. Recommendations Agriculture Considering the ongoing desert locust infestation, both county and national governments should enhance measures to control the pest. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies for crop production. Provision of farm inputs such as subsidized fertilizer and certified seeds in preparation for the MAM season Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Livestock Promote pasture conservation including deferred grazing management in order to avoid quick destruction and depletion of the available pasture hence enable pastoralists to use it for a longer period. Conduct livestock vaccination campaigns and other disease control interventions Water Rehabilitation of water catchments Repair and desilting of dams and water pans Health and nutrition Intensify health promotion campaigns Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th January 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec VCI-3 month as at 27th Jan Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 86.29 92.75 Following some rains received in October, November, December and January the vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Central 83.91 84.31 Eldama 75.15 Mogotio 95.62 North 80.15 84.29 South 86.31 91.12 Tiaty 100.86 MANDERA County 91.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Banissa 86.89 91.19 M East 85.37 82.88 Lafey 90.56 91.41 M North 92.73 98.51 M South 91.35 90.27 M West 90.42 86.97 TURKANA County 90.48 92.39 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 91.13 99.24 T. East 78.36 T. Loima 108.15 119.49 T. North 81.83 T. South 84.41 101.46 T. West 102.6 91.49 MARSABIT County 82.13 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 86.43 92.17 Moyale 89.84 91.47 N. Horr 76.71 84.73 101.15 99.15 WAJIR County 78.82 83.15 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W East 94.32 93.85 W.Eldas 75.18 71.64 W. North 95.64 W. South 68.44 77.63 W.Tarbaj 92.03 86.49 W West 67.41 86.52 SAMBURU County The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 81.93 S. North 76.79 S. West 78.64 91.79 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 69.73 74.31 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 63.11 75.61 Daadab 57.85 66.33 75.85 72.39 Ijara 83.06 86.57 Lagdera 55.32 73.02 Dujis 72.52 ISIOLO County 70.41 84.17 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. North 73.87 85.68 I. South 65.11 81.85 RIVER County 81.27 89.64 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 65.61 73.39 Galole 82.24 Garsen 93.95 100.09 KAJIADO County 90.72 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 76.63 K. East 85.33 85.94 K. North 63.43 71.56 K. South 93.99 97.92 K. West 73.72 90.28 LAIKIPIA County 80.93 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. East 84.28 87.08 L. North 81.05 89.06 L. West 79.11 83.11 THARAKA NITHI County 63.02 70.52 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chuka 69.96 70.25 Maara 62.23 64.86 Tharaka 60.65 72.43 POKOT County 84.79 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 85.28 90.72 Kapenguria 92.23 Pokot South 84.09 89.57 Sigor 81.52 86.23 County 77.89 78.74 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 56.73 68.91 Mbeere North 77.31 78.62 Mbeere South 87.25 84.22 Runyenjes 68.24 69.58 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec VCI-3 month as at 27th Jan Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 71.29 80.84 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 88.81 84.75 Kitui East 82.95 Mwingi Central 78.45 83.96 Mwingi North 67.26 77.28 Mwingi West 89.18 Kitui Rural 90.11 85.93 Kitui South 78.72 Kitui West 92.81 86.42 MAKUENI County 91.94 86.62 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 100.66 96.52 Kibwezi East 75.45 76.03 Kibwezi West 89.91 83.76 Kilome 105.15 98.38 Makueni 106.77 94.46 Mbooni 97.03 91.28 County 74.07 77.97 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 70.34 74.71 Central Imenti 68.34 72.23 Igembe Central 81.56 85.45 Igembe North 81.39 86.14 Igembe South 80.34 84.31 North Imenti 68.28 65.63 South Imenti 65.42 Tigania East 77.95 Tigania West 74.78 NYERI County 73.13 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 71.45 72.46 Mathira 58.14 Mukurweini 88.36 82.85 90.02 Othaya 67.96 79.05 65.75 KILIFI County 82.73 86.32 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Ganze 83.69 85.55 Kaloleni 82.85 85.52 Magarini 85.91 87.66 Malindi 75.27 81.07 Kilifi-North 77.34 82.25 Rabai 78.33 85.77 Kilifi-South 81.52 KWALE County 85.02 89.34 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 86.49 89.67 Lungalunga 88.08 91.33 Matuga 77.03 86.23 Msambweni 73.21 County 85.53 87.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 80.42 84.72 Lamu West 88.48 89.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec VCI-3 month as at 27th Jan Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 93.74 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Mwatate 97.07 98.28 Taveta 107.18 96.23 94.66 91.19 Wundanyi 103.52 95.92 NAROK County 72.12 81.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 84.15 Emurua Dikirr 86.96 89.49 Kilgoris 77.31 Narok-North 63.37 74.11 Narok-South 73.69 81.73 Narok-West 70.94 81.92 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "January_2020'.pdf": "January 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS During the month of December 2019, most ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall that was also well distributed both in time and space. By the end of December, nearly all counties had recorded more than 100 percent of their long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal rainfall. The ongoing October to December seasonal rains have resulted in improved pasture and browse condition and has also replenished most surface water sources in the ASAL counties. As a result, the current state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality is above that normally experienced at this period of the year in most ASAL areas. Return distances to water for households have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the enhanced rainfall received during the October - December season that has recharged water pans, dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources with adequate water hence improving water access for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL counties is improving or stable implying that the prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 59 months has reduced in comparison with last month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 counties is either close to the long term average (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the nutritional status of children aged below five years in these counties is currently better than would be expected at this time of the year. As a result of the above average rainfall performance recorded during the month of December , all the 23 ASAL counties are now categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. Drought phase classification, December 2019 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Marsabit, Tana River, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui Meru (Meru North) Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall In December 2019, most ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall that was also fairly well distributed both in time and space. By the end of December, nearly all counties had recorded more than 100 percent of their long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal rainfall. For example, during the month of December, Lodwar Town in Turkana County, recorded rainfall that was above 200 percent of the normal rainfall for the month. In Marsabit, Moyale and Saku sub-counties received enhanced rains, which were above average, parts of Laisamis sub-county received torrential rains while areas in Illeret, Dukana and TurbiBubisa wards in North Horr sub-county received slightly enhanced rains. Rainfall amounts received in Kwale county, were above-normal in all the three dekads since 39.5 mm, 36 mm and 64.7 mm of rainfall were received in dekads one, two and three in comparison with an LTA of 33.6 mm, 23.4 mm and 24.8 mm respectively. The ongoing October to December seasonal rains have resulted in improved pasture and browse condition and has also replenished most surface water sources in the ASAL counties. Vegetation condition Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2019 with that in December 2019. The maps show that vegetation greenness is on an improving trend compared to November 2019 and it further illustrates that the condition of vegetation in all ASAL counties is within normal and above normal ranges for the period. The high vegetation regeneration witnessed during the month under review is attributed to the good performance of the October - November - December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2019 and December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Water sources The enhanced rainfall experienced since beginning of October has recharged most open water sources and hence the most relied upon sources of water for both domestic and livestock use in December were pans, dams, shallow wells and rivers. Across the ASAL counties, most surface water sources are recharged to between 75 and 100 percent of their full capacity and the available water is likely to last for at least three months. For example, in Samburu County, traditional river wells accounted for approximately 58 percent of usage by households followed by pans and dams at 22.6 percent. Other water sources used by households during the month under review were springs at 9.7 percent, while the proportion that depended on boreholes and rivers was 6.5 and 3.2 percent respectively. In all counties, the current water situation is above normal compared to the similar period at this time of the year. Livestock production Most ASAL areas recorded an improvement in livestock productivity in December which was attributed to good pasture and browse condition and reduced trekking distances to water sources. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in December in all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in December compounded by the cumulative effect of the rains received in October and November. However, in Turkana County, pasture situation was classified as fair owing to the poor performance of rains in parts of the county especially in some pockets in Turkana North. On the other hand, with the invasion of desert locusts in some ASAL counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Garissa defoliation of pasture and browse has been witnessed which is likely to reduce the expected period pasture is expected to last in the affected areas. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2019 Pasture Browse Turkana Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Lamu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Meru (Meru North) Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Lamu West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Livestock body condition In all counties, livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to rise in availability of good forage combined with reduced livestock trekking distances. As presented in Table 2, during the month under review, all ASAL counties reported that body condition for cattle and goats was good and on an improving trend. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, December 2019 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Isiolo Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Narok Meru Samburu Turkana Kwale West Pokot Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Samburu Turkana Kwale Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Isiolo Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Narok Meru Tana River Tharaka Nithi Milk production Table 1 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Turkana County, for instance, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 25 percent to 2.5 litres in December from 2 litres in November. In Samburu, average milk production per household per day rose by 17 percent from 1.2 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December while in Embu (Mbeere), Kitui, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Kajiado average milk production increased by 33, 22, 17, 15 and 14 percent respectively. However, milk production in some ASAL areas declined in December. In Baringo, for example, the average household milk production recorded in December was lower than the level attained in November by 15 percent while in Lamu milk production per household fell by 18 percent from 1.7 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December. The decrease in milk production in Baringo was attributed to the displacement of households in the irrigated livelihood zone due to floods while in Lamu the drop in milk production was associated to the deterioration of forage condition in the grazing areas as a result of flooding. Table 3.0: Milk production, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Baringo Kilifi Kwale Cattle prices Improved cattle body condition which was credited to availability of adequate pasture and water in close proximity to the grazing areas combined with the effects of high demand and low supply of cattle offered for sale as most livestock keepers were holding their livestock were the major drivers of the higher cattle prices recorded in December. Consequently, in majority of the ASAL counties cattle prices have improved or have remained stable. For example, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit and Makueni the current prices for cattle are above the prices normally reported for the same period (LTA) by 63, 57, 52, 25 and 23 percent respectively. However, in three ASAL counties: Embu (Mbeere), Kitui and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) the situation has not returned to normal fully and hence the current cattle prices are lower than the three-year average price for the month as shown Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Lamu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Makueni Turkana Marsabit Samburu Narok Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana river Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in December in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of December goat prices in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition and better prices offered during the December festive season. Conversely, in three counties: Mandera, Kilifi and Turkana goat prices were below the three-year average due to market forces of supply and demand occasioned by the high volumes of small stock offered for sale. Table 5.0: Goat prices, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kwale Nyeri Tana River Wajir Mandera Kilifi Turkana Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Kwale Taita Taveta Tana River Kilifi Turkana Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Crop production All ASAL counties received average to above average rainfall during the October to December (OND) short rains season resulting in overall favourable crop conditions. In the marginal agricultural counties like Makueni, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Meru (Meru North) and Taita Taveta the main crops grown which include maize, beans, millet, sorghum, cow peas, green grams are performing well and were reported to be at tussling, flowering and podding stages with some of the early planted crops approaching maturity and harvesting stage. The heavy rains, however, has significantly reduced crop production prospects in the low lying and riverine areas in some ASAL areas like Kitui, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi and Nyeri (Kieni). Limited cases of fall army worm (FAW) infestation were reported in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) and Taita Taveta but so far the effect of FAW in these counties has not been substantial to affect production. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In about 80 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in December were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. For instance, in Lamu County, the retail price of a kilogram of maize was Kshs 73, which was 83 percent above the 2016 - 2018 average. In Meru, a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 45 repersenting a 63 percent margin above Kshs 27 in the three year average while in Tana River a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 66 which was 57 percent above LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Embu Isiolo Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Makueni Mandera Meru Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kwale Samburu Narok West Pokot Lamu Tana River Kitui Baringo Marsabit Kajiado Turkana Wajir Tana River Narok Nyeri Baringo Makueni Wajir Tharaka Embu Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Samburu Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Taita Taveta Meru Kwale Mandera Marsabit Turkana West Pokot Access to water Table 7 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Return distances to water for households have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the enhanced rainfall received during the October - December season that has recharged water pans, dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources with adequate water hence improving water access for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, West Pokot, Meru (Meru North), Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita Taveta, Turkana, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), (Mbeere) Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, (Meru North), Narok, Wajir, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), River, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit Baringo Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot In all the ASAL counties, largely as a result of the recharge of most water sources, the trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources have decreased or remained unchanged in December. Similarly, the recorded trekking distances for the month under review were significantly lower than the five year average distances walked by livestock to reach water points for the period. For instance, the average distance to water sources from grazing areas, in Isiolo County decreased by a margin of 33 percent from 1.5 km in November to 1 km in December. In Mandera, average trekking distance from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock decreased from 5 km in November to 3 km in December and was significantly lower than the five year average distances for the period by 75 percent and in Kitui, average return distances from grazing areas to watering points declined by 30 percent to stand at 2.6 km in December from 3.7 km in November which is also below the long term mean of 3.9 km by 33 percent. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. Overall, in about 70 percent of the counties, livestock keepers were able to purchase additional quantities of maize from the sale of a goat in the month of December compared to the previous month. The increase in ToT was attributed to a rise in goat prices as a result of greater demand for goats during the festival season and the good body condition of goats. For example, in Marsabit County a household could buy 102 kg of maize from the sale of one goat compared to 82 kg in November. The amount of maize that could be purchased by households in Marsabit was 23 percent higher than the three year average for the month. In Wajir, proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 72 kg of maize compared to 63 kg in November an increase by 14 percent while in Narok County households could currently purchase 86 kg of maize which when compared with the 2016 - 2018 LTA of 63 kg translates to an additional 23 kg maize. However, in Baringo, the terms of trade exhibited a downward trend in December because the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 66 kg of maize in December compared with 70 kg in November. Similarly, in Lamu County the ToT for December decreased by 29 percent from 102 kg of maize in November to 72 kg in December. The decrease in the ToT in these counties was attributed to a fall in goat prices while the price of maize increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Marsabit Turkana Wajir Narok Kajiado Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Makueni West Pokot Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Mandera Isiolo Makueni Kwale Samburu Meru Turkana Wajir Laikipia Embu Garissa Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL counties is improving or stable implying that the prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 59 months has reduced in comparison with last month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 counties is either close to the long term average (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the nutritional status of children aged below five years in these counties is currently better than would be expected at this time of the year. Improvement in the nutritional status among the under-fives was attributed to increase in milk consumption at the household level, favourable terms of trade and enhanced dietary diversity across the ASAL counties. However, eight counties: Tana River, Kwale, Mandera, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir, Meru (Meru North) and Lamu reported a higher percentage of children at risk of malnutrition than the December long term mean. The most likely cause of malnutrition in these counties could be poor infant and young children feeding practices, inadequate food intake, poor dietary diversity and disease incidences. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2019 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kitui Kwale Mandera Wajir Tana River Tharaka Nyeri Garissa Samburu Turkana Embu (Mbeere) Taita Taveta West Pokot Makueni Marsabit Baringo Laikipia Kajiado Narok Kilifi Isiolo Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Kwale Lamu Mandera Samburu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Taita Taveta Laikipia Narok Nyeri Turkana Drought phase classification Currently all the 23 ASAL counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. The improving trend is attributed to the above average rainfall performance observed during the month of December. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, December 2019 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Marsabit, Tana River, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui Meru (Meru North) Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Projected food security situation According to weather outlook for January 2020 from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), most ASAL areas are expected to receive occasional rainfall during the first half of January. The continuation of the rains into January is likely to impact positively on both water and forage availability and accessibility, hence will further enhance improvement in livestock condition and productivity. Increased availability of milk and other food commodities is likely to support reduction in prevalence of malnutrition in children. Market operations are likely to remain vibrant with maize prices projected to remain stable. Consequently, terms of trade are likely to remain favourable supporting access to staple food commodities for households in the next month. On the other hand, with the invasion of desert locusts in some ASAL counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Garissa defoliation of pasture and browse has been witnessed which is likely to reduce the expected period pasture is expected to last in the affected areas. Recommendations Agriculture Sector Urgent action required to enhance surveillance and control operations against invasion of desert locusts and fall army worms Post-harvest management training for farmers and agro pastoralists who are set to harvest the short rain season crop Livestock Sector Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Intensify efforts towards establishment of strategic hay reserves and stock piling of hay so as to promote availability of livestock feeds for utilization during the dry seasonperiods of drought. Water Sector Promotion of water harvesting and storage. Rehabilitation of water catchments, repair and maintenance of water points. Health and Nutrition Sector Provision of health education to communities on hygiene and sanitation and expansion of health and nutrition interventions to cover areas that have reported high disease and malnutrition cases. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources Support Vitamin A supplementation and de-worming programmes Education Sector Promotion of water harvesting, storage and management in schools. Enhance Home Grown School Meals Programmes (HGSMP) in schools. Peace Building and Conflict Management Peace building and conflict management initiatives. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) as at 30thDecember 2019 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Nov VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 80.11 86.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Central 83.91 Eldama 75.17 75.15 Mogotio 82.57 North 77.06 80.15 South 82.35 86.31 Tiaty 79.99 MANDERA County 73.23 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Banissa 60.85 86.89 M East 75.14 85.37 Lafey 75.03 90.56 M North 66.53 92.73 M South 80.56 91.35 M West 78.15 90.42 TURKANA County 76.11 90.48 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. T Central 91.13 T. East 62.46 T. Loima 82.87 108.15 T. North 71.94 T. South 66.72 84.41 T. West 91.27 102.6 MARSABIT County 60.81 82.13 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Laisaimis 61.27 86.43 Moyale 67.29 89.84 N. Horr 57.79 76.71 101.15 WAJIR County 60.65 78.82 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement observed during month of December 2019. W East 83.51 94.32 W. Eldas 62.53 75.18 W. North 87.14 95.64 W. South 43.53 68.44 W. Tarbaj 92.03 W West 37.78 67.41 SAMBURU County 54.98 S. East The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. S. North 58.56 76.79 S. West 70.01 78.64 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 54.52 69.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Improvement noted across the sub counties. Balambala 42.28 63.11 Daadab 37.52 57.85 67.06 75.85 Ijara 69.22 83.06 Lagdera 30.23 55.32 Dujis 74.82 72.52 ISIOLO County 42.49 70.41 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties. I. North 43.32 73.87 I. South 41.22 65.11 RIVER County 60.49 81.27 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties 48.63 65.61 Galole 60.65 82.24 Garsen 70.46 93.95 KAJIADO County 64.96 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. K. Central 59.31 76.63 K. East 74.69 85.33 K. North 60.55 63.43 K. South 69.83 93.99 K. West 73.72 LAIKIPIA County 80.93 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. L. East 74.32 84.28 L. North 81.05 L. West 83.53 79.11 THARAKA NITHI County 47.16 63.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Chuka 61.59 69.96 Maara 57.46 62.23 Tharaka 38..43 60.65 POKOT County 78.63 84.79 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Kacheliba 79.44 85.28 Kapenguria 85.39 Pokot South 77.46 84.09 Sigor 72.12 81.52 County 67.33 77.89 Manyatta 54.72 56.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Mbeere North 67.28 77.31 Mbeere South 72.89 87.25 Runyenjes 60.95 68.24 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Nov VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 71.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Kitui Central 81.39 88.81 Kitui East 51.91 Mwingi Central 78.45 Mwingi North 67.26 Mwingi West 77.51 89.18 Kitui Rural 74.61 90.11 Kitui South 38.63 Kitui West 82.59 92.81 MAKUENI County 76.36 91.94 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains.. Kaiti 83.59 100.66 Kibwezi East 56.64 75.45 Kibwezi West 75.05 89.91 Kilome 91.77 105.15 Makueni 90.63 106.77 Mbooni 87.16 97.03 County 61.77 74.07 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Buuri 69.14 70.34 Central Imenti 62.04 68.34 Igembe Central 62.88 81.56 Igembe North 62.27 81.39 Igembe South 59.51 80.34 North Imenti 67.17 68.28 South Imenti 61.03 Tigania East 56.46 Tigania West 61.46 74.78 NYERI County 66.79 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Kieni 65.93 71.45 Mathira 68.35 Mukurweini 75.07 75.08 82.85 Othaya 61.45 67.96 66.06 65.75 KILIFI County 66.91 82.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Ganze 64.57 83.69 Kaloleni 68.44 82.85 Magarini 67.41 85.91 Malindi 59.64 75.27 Kilifi-North 71.39 77.34 Rabai 65.24 78.33 Kilifi-South 75.72 81.52 KWALE County 66.81 85.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains.. Kinango 64.46 86.49 Lungalunga 70.19 88.08 Matuga 69.89 77.03 Msambweni 70.67 73.21 County 76.97 85.53 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Lamu East 88.68 80.42 Lamu West 81.03 88.48 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Nov VCI-3 month as at 30th Dec Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 77.08 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains.. Mwatate 97.07 Taveta 95.94 107.18 69.96 94.66 Wundanyi 86.42 103.52 NAROK County 62.19 72.12 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Narok-East 66.83 84.15 Emurua Dikirr 82.41 86.96 Kilgoris 66.31 Narok-North 55.56 63.37 Narok-South 73.69 Narok-West 60.53 70.94 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "April_2020.pdf": "Page 1 April 2020 Page 2 KEY HIGHLIGHTS As a result of the timely start of the March- April-May (MAM) rainfall, all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend improving in 5 counties while a stable trend was observed in 17 counties. The March to May rains have positively impacted on water sources for both livestock and household consumption positively by increasing water availability and improving access by means of reducing distances to water points. In most ASAL counties, the water situation observed in March was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed at this time of the year. Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started to impact positively on both crop and livestock production. In many ASAL areas, livestock production has improved which is attributed to increased availability of water and pasture. Availability of these rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has boosted milk production and overall increase in livestock productivity. All pastoral counties recorded favourable terms of trade (ToT), implying that in March 2020 livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. Drought phase classification, March 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale Wajir Embu(Mbeere) Isiolo Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Tana River, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Garissa Alert Alarm Emergency Page 3 Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the 2020 March to May long rains season was early since majority of the ASAL counties started receiving rains in the first and second week of March compared to third and fourth week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. The MAM rains have impacted water sources for both livestock and household consumption positively by increasing availability through increasing the number of sources holding water and improving access through reducing distances to water points. In most ASAL counties, the water situation observed in March was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed at this time of the year. Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started to impact positively on both crop and livestock production. Vegetation condition NDMA uses Earth Observation (EO) data to derive information products which are used to report on vegetation conditions and to detect possible risks for food security linked to reduced pasture and browse availability. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 30th March 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of March 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 30th March 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Turkana Kitui Kajiado Makueni Baringo Kilifi Tana River Samburu West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2019 with that in March 2020. The March 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in March 2020 was better compared to the situation in March 2019 as shown in Figure 1. Page 4 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2019 and March 2020 Water sources Water pans, dams, seasonal rivers, ponds, boreholes, traditional river wells and springs were the most reliable sources of water for both livestock and domestic use during the month under review. Majority of the open water sources including pans, dams and rock catchments were at 50 to 80 percent capacity across ASAL counties. In nearly all ASAL areas, the water sources in use in March 2020 were the normal sources where households drew water from at this time of the year. However, the observed water situation during the month was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed in other years, which was attributed to the average to above average rains received in March 2020. Livestock production In many ASAL areas, livestock production has improved which is attributed to increased availability of water and pasture. Availability of these rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has boosted milk production and overall increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition During the month of March, pasture and browse condition was good across the ASAL counties compared to fair normally as shown in Table 2. The observed improvement in pasture and browse situation which is above normal for the month is attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in March 2020. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Page 5 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2020 Pasture Browse Baringo Mandera Turkana Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Meru Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Embu Mandera Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Turkana Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Tana River Nyeri Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Lamu Tharaka Kilifi West Pokot Meru Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to the decrease in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with growth in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2020 Cattle Goats Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Embu Samburu Narok Turkana Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Meru Tharaka Kwale West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Turkana Makueni Tana River Meru Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Embu Samburu Narok Tharaka Kwale West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in nineteen counties is above or close to LTA which was attributed to good availability of water, pasture and browse. However, four counties which includes: Kajiado, Makueni, Lamu and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates and a general reduction in herd size at household level. Page 6 Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Samburu Baringo Kilifi Mandera Turkana Kitui Kajiado Makueni Kajiado Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Kitui Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Samburu Wajir Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Makueni Tana River In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For example, in Marsabit County the average cattle price recorded in March was Kshs 26,434 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 18,827 by 40 percent. Similarly in Samburu County the average price of 4-year old medium size bull during the month was Kshs 21,455 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA by 36 percent. The above average cattle prices is attributed to the improved body condition of cattle relative to the typical state that would be expected at this time of the year. Table 5 presents trends in cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Marsabit Meru Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia Narok West Pokot Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Lamu Kitui Turkana Kwale Makueni Mandera Tana River Nyeri Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Samburu Wajir Turkana Narok Kwale West Pokot Meru Taita Taveta Embu Baringo Garissa Makueni Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trend in goat prices in March 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. For instance, in Kwale County, the price of a medium-sized three-year-old buck was Kshs 4,428 in March having increased by a 25 percent margin from Kshs 3,533 recorded in February. In addition, the price was more than double (117 percent) that expected for this time of the year which is recorded as Kshs 2,041 in the 2016 - 2018 LTA. In the same way, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Kajiado, West Pokot, Kilifi, Narok and Wajir were above LTA by 78, 58, 53, 33, 25 and 20 percent respectively. Continued availability of rangeland resources such as browse and water was credited as the contributing factor to the improved market price. Page 7 Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kwale Samburu Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Makueni Marsabit Narok Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Embu Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Mandera Garissa Kitui Kwale Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Tana River Narok Baringo Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Meru Kajiado Nyeri Laikipia Embu Samburu Wajir Mandera Kilifi Makueni Crop production During the month of March most farmers in the marginal agricultural areas were engaged in land preparation and planting. In some counties such as Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni) and Tharaka where farmers had planted in early March in anticipation of a timely onset of the March to May (MAM) long-rains season crops were at the germination stage. Desert locust infestation was reported in parts of Tharaka Nithi County such as Maragwa, Kathanga Chini, Kathagani, Kathiriku, Karangare and Makithi. However, the spread of the locust in the county was effectively managed as a result of the swift action by the aerial and ground control teams. Maize prices Table 7 presents the maize price trends in ASAL counties. In 20 ASAL counties, the retail price of maize was below or close to the 2015 - 19 average. For instance, in Meru County average maize price during the month of February was Kshs 79 per kg which is 27 percent higher than the three- year mean of Kshs 62. The average market price of a kilo of maize fell by 22 percent to Kshs 25 from Kshs 32 recorded in February. The retail price of maize in Meru in March was 31 percent lower than the three-year average of Kshs 36. Similarly, in Turkana, Kitui, Marsabit and Narok maize prices were below LTA by 25, 17, 12 and 11 percent respectively. The below normal maize price is attributed to increased supply of the commodity in markets in most ASAL areas and the enhanced short rains season harvest which has replenished household maize stocks. Page 8 Table 7.0: Maize prices, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Mandera Garissa Baringo Embu Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Wajir Tharaka Kilifi West Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Turkana Meru Tana River Marsabit Makueni Kajiado Isiolo Narok Kitui Kilifi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Kwale Samburu Garissa Marsabit Tharaka West Pokot Tana River Kajiado Narok Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Access to water In all ASAL counties, average household distances are below the five-year average. The shorter household distances to water points recorded in March was fundamentally occasioned by recharge of open water sources. For example, in Marsabit, average return distances from households to water sources reduced by 11 percent from 4.5 km in February to 4.0 km in March. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 4.0 km is 44 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 7.2 km. Equally, in Isiolo, Narok, Kilifi, Kitui, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir average household distances are below the 2015 - 2019 mean by 74, 63, 58, 50, 41, 40 and 34 percent respectively. Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Mandera Tharaka Nithi Lamu Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Wajir Tana River Embu Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana River Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Tharaka Garissa Makueni Mandera Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Wajir Kilifi As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. However, in Samburu County, livestock trekking distances increased due to deterioration of pasture as a result of forage damage caused by desert locusts which led to severely reduction in pasture and browse availability especially in parts of Samburu East sub-county. Consequently, the average distance for livestock increased to 9.4 km up from 8 km recorded in the month of February. But even with the increase in livestock trekking distance, the current situation remained below the Page 9 LTA of 14.5 km. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Turkana Narok Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Wajir Tana River Embu Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Mandera Lamu Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Isiolo Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize. In all ASAL areas, the current value is above or close to the long term average (LTA), implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. This was attributed to rising goat prices as a result of their good body condition while maize prices were stabilizing or declining. However, in Wajir County, the terms of trade decreased slightly by 9 percent from 66 kg of maize in February to 60 kg in March indicating that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat this month compared with last month. In the same way, in Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Isiolo terms of trade decreased by 13, 9 and 7 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties were largely due to a drop in the goat prices while maize prices increased. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) West Pokot Meru Tana River Embu Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Mandera Lamu Taita Taveta Kajiado Kwale Tharaka Wajir Mandera Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Narok Kilifi Kitui Turkana Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Samburu Laikipia Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Wajir Page 10 Health and nutrition Overall, in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties, the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement is close to or below LTA. For example, in Kilifi the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 3.3 percent in February to 2.5 percent in March. The decrease was attributed to adequate dietary intake and nutrition interventions including baby friendly initiatives conducted by the health sector partners. In Mandera, prevalence of malnutrition declined by 20 percent compared to the previous month while in Kitui the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped from 7.6 percent in February to 6.5 percent in March which was attributed to increase in availability of diverse food commodities at household level. Table 11 summarizes the trend in the proportion of children aged 6 to 59 months at risk of malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Samburu Tana River Baringo Taita Taveta Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Turkana Narok West Pokot Wajir Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Mandera Meru Kajiado Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Turkana Baringo Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Makueni Samburu Wajir Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Kwale Narok Tana River Tharaka Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at end of March 2020. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored which includes: rainfall performance, vegetation condition and the state of water sources all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend worsening in only one county, improving in 5 counties while a stable trend was observed in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale Wajir Embu(Mbeere) Isiolo Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Tana River, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, (Meru North) Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Garissa Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Page 11 Projected food security situation According the Kenya Meteorological department (KMD) forecast for April 2020, rainfall performance during the month of March was average to above average. The forecast indicates that ASAL counties such as Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, parts of Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, and parts of Meru are likely to experience above average rainfall especially during the first three weeks of April 2020. However, Laikipia, Baringo, Narok, parts of Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu, a few areas in Nyeri and parts of Meru are likely to experience dry spells during the first two weeks of the month. The figure to the right shows the expected rainfall performance in April 2020. Household and livestock water distances are expected to be within the normal ranges for the next one month. Livestock productivity including body condition, milk production and livestock prices is projected to remain stable and above average at least over the next one month as a consequence of the ongoing long rains sustaining further regeneration of pasture and browse. Enhanced rainfall performance is likely to improve food availability at household levels and minimize reliance on markets for food supplies. Maize prices are likely to remain stable and near average for the next 2 to 3 months. However, enhanced rains might result in flooding which might lead to loss of lives, displacement, destruction of infrastructures and upsurge in water borne diseases. Furthermore, COVID-19 pandemic associated travel restrictions and social distancing constraints might impact negatively on supply of food commodities and market operations including livestock markets. Recommendations Provision of food and non-food assistance to approximately 1.3 million people in the ASAL areas currently experiencing Crisis and Emergency food security outcomes. The projected above average March-April-May (MAM) rains are likely to result in floding in some of the flood prone ASAL counties such as West Pokot, Tana River and Garissa. Consequently, it is imperative for all counties to put in place approprite mitigation measures to prevent loss of lives and livelihoods. Create awareness and educate ASAL communities on key measures to help curb the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Page 12 Intensify ground and aerial spraying to control the spread and infestation of desert locusts in the country. Promote rain water harvesting, pasture establishment and conservation. Investment in preparedness and the capacity to respond effectively during the next drought, including refining drought contingency plans and operationalizing contingency funds. Page 13 Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th March 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th February VCI-3 month as at 30th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 98.82 92.16 Vegetation greenness above normal across the county and its sub counties. Central 85.71 89.81 Eldama 71.66 Mogotio 97.55 91.68 North 91.05 South 97.09 94.89 Tiaty 110.51 95.07 MANDERA County 92.28 79.33 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Banissa 88.11 64.95 M East 79.54 61.49 Lafey 91.82 71.76 M North 101.99 83.76 M South 95.82 97.71 M West 84.77 75.58 TURKANA County 102.4 117.71 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 108.19 122.39 T. East 88.82 79.49 T. Loima 133.6 141.64 T. North 90.38 117.9 T. South 113.22 118.26 T. West 99.88 128.36 MARSABIT County 93.89 89.83 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 101.5 102.96 Moyale 84.52 70.83 N. Horr 91.19 86.28 108.28 107.67 WAJIR County 83.69 75.85 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W. East 98.17 88.23 W. Eldas 66.52 63.38 W. North 94.64 89.92 W. South 77.46 67.25 W. Tarbaj 85.82 80.34 W West 91.22 Page 14 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th February VCI-3 month as at 30th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 96.66 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 92.28 87.32 S. North 101.42 96.71 S. West 98.07 92.18 GARISSA County 77.88 77.84 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 79.85 70.78 Daadab 61.14 77.24 83.23 Ijara 89.96 93.71 Lagdera 77.77 70.24 Dujis 56.59 59.29 ISIOLO County 85.67 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. North 86.04 80.56 I. South 85.11 73.84 RIVER County 97.39 98.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 80.47 81.98 Galole 111.19 115.81 Garsen 103.13 102.84 KAJIADO County 102.97 105.8 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 98.06 K. East 96.44 101.96 K. North 86.01 94.03 K. South 101.96 102.05 K. West 110.31 115.12 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.19 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. East 88.02 87.96 L. North 94.52 91.02 L. West 85.34 79.66 THARAKA NITHI County 77.01 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chuka 67.41 83.56 Maara 66.07 80.11 Tharaka 84.12 84.91 POKOT County 98.45 101.9 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 103.17 104.44 Kapenguria 98.43 107.24 Pokot South 88.23 97.17 Sigor 95.93 95.55 Page 15 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th February VCI-3 month as at 30th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 83.07 94.75 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 78.47 87.82 Mbeere North 83.03 94.69 Mbeere South 87.97 99.49 Runyenjes 69.94 84.92 KITUI County 92.74 100.82 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 90.02 101.06 Kitui East 97.88 105.53 Mwingi Central 96.74 Mwingi North 87.14 87.05 Mwingi West 93.83 108.6 Kitui Rural 89.92 103.98 Kitui South 92.69 103.68 Kitui West 96.34 109.19 MAKUENI County 92.38 102.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 101.53 105.17 Kibwezi East 84.74 Kibwezi West 90.08 101.9 Kilome 100.7 108.19 Makueni 106.17 Mbooni 98.26 106.85 County 80.67 87.79 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 93.11 Central Imenti 83.65 Igembe Central 88.66 90.24 Igembe North 90.27 89.97 Igembe South 80.31 78.97 North Imenti 72.17 South Imenti 60.65 76.05 Tigania East 85.48 86.72 Tigania West 83.98 99.63 Page 16 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th February VCI-3 month as at 30th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 75.62 86.96 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 74.53 85.36 Mathira 67.05 80.55 Mukurweini 97.79 106.61 94.71 100.93 Othaya 86.81 72.55 86.83 KILIFI County 86.02 84.45 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Ganze 88.74 Kaloleni 88.88 89.99 Magarini 84.99 80.38 Malindi Kilifi-North 86.23 88.51 Rabai 85.38 93.87 Kilifi-South 91.07 100.29 KWALE County 91.52 97.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 91.99 106.65 Lungalunga 92.41 94.14 Matuga 88.67 90.54 Msambweni County 89.42 90.74 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East Lamu West 90.24 91.28 TAITA TAVETA County 96.84 105.7 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Mwatate 101.94 107.2 Taveta 98.27 106.68 94.31 106.71 Wundanyi 102.11 113.42 NAROK County 86.95 91.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 91.73 96.41 Emurua Dikirr 92.59 90.84 Kilgoris 85.85 87.39 Narok-North 77.74 Narok-South 86.02 92.75 Narok-West 90.66 93.31 Page 17 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Page 18 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "May_2020.pdf": "May 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good rains received in April have enhanced pasture regeneration and boosted higher development and growth of crops. However, the heavy rainfall that was received from mid-April also resulted in widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of the desert locust infestation, which is posing significant threat to crops and livestock forage across the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) region. Abundant availability of water, pasture and browse in all ASAL counties has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has led to an increase in livestock productivity. In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water for households are currently below the five-year average while at the same time most counties registered an improving trend in April as most areas continued to receive reasonable rainfall during the month. In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase larger quantities of maize in April compared with the long term average (LTA) while the nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 out of 23 counties reporting incidences children mid-upper circumference (MUAC) less than 135 mm which was close to or below LTA, implying that in about 70 percent of the ASAL counties the current nutrition status of children below the age of five years was within the seasonal ranges. Drought phase classification, April 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Alert Alarm Emergency Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of April, nearly all ASAL counties received enhanced rainfall that was characterized by heavy storms. In many areas, intense rains were received throughout the month and consequently, by the end of the month, several counties had attained and surpassed their long term mean rainfall for April. Counties which recorded substantial above average rains in April include: Narok, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, Makueni, Embu and Kajiado. The good rains received in April have enhanced pasture regeneration and growth of crops. However, the above average rains have also resulted in widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of the desert locust infestation, which is posing significant threat to crops and livestock forage. Vegetation condition Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 27th April 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of April 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 27th April 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Turkana Kitui Kajiado Makueni Baringo Kilifi Tana River Samburu West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late April 2019 with that in late April 2020. The April 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in April 2020 was better compared to the situation in April 2019 and as the right hand VCI map for 2020 demonstrates, vegetation greenness in April 2020 in all arid and semi-arid counties was within normal to above normal ranges. The improved state of vegetation across ASAL areas is mainly attributed to the early onset of the March-April-May rainy season and the enhanced rainfall received in April. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2019 and April 2020 Water sources The current sources of water for both domestic and livestock use are water pans, dams, shallow wells, rock catchments ponds, boreholes, rivers and piped water systems. Recharge to the open water sources is 70 to 100 percent of their capacities, which has greatly improved water availability. For instance, approximately half of the water pans and rock catchments in Turkana are currently at full capacity, while water levels in most surface water sources in Baringo, Kitui, Samburu and Kajiado are at about 70 percent of their maximum volume. Livestock production Abundant availability of water, pasture and browse in all ASAL counties has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has led to an increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition Overall, pasture and browse condition considerably improved in April when compared to the preceding month which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted massive pasture and browse growth and regeneration. Nearly all counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being above normal when compared to a similar month of the year as presented in Table 2. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2020 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2020 Pasture Browse Baringo Mandera Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Samburu Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Meru Makueni Narok Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Kwale West Pokot Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Kitui Samburu Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Meru Makueni Narok Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Kwale West Pokot Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to availability of pasture and water in close proximity hence livestock are walking shorter distances between the grazing fields and water points. In general, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2020 Cattle Goats Baringo Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Meru Samburu Embu Makueni Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Kwale Turkana Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Meru Samburu Embu Makueni Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Kwale Turkana Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Milk production In comparison to the 2017 to 2019 production records, average milk production per household in April 2020 in seventeen counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, six counties which includes: Samburu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Tana River and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, general reduction in household livestock herd size and outbreak of livestock diseases like food and mouth disease (FMD) contagious bovine pleuro pneumonia (CBPP). In Tana River County the drop in milk production was also associated with increased incidences of pests mainly tsetse fly and flooding which had submerged most of the grazing fields. Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Narok Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Meru North Wajir Kitui Kajiado Makueni Samburu Tana River Kajiado Turkana Kwale Mandera West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kitui Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Tana River Kilifi Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Cattle prices Table 5 illustrates the trends in cattle prices. In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For instance, in Mandera County the average price of a medium size four-year bull rose from Kshs 20,700 in March to Kshs 23,500 in April which was an increase of 14 percent. In West Pokot County the average cattle price recorded in April was Kshs 23,529 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 14,190 by 66 percent. Likewise in Kilifi County, average cattle prices stood at Kshs 25,000 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA of Kshs 16,914 by 48 percent. The above average cattle prices was attributed to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Isiolo Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Meru Samburu Kilifi Baringo Garissa Laikipia Narok Tharaka Lamu Mandera Kajiado Kitui Turkana Kwale Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Tana River Baringo Embu Samburu Lamu Makueni Wajir Turkana Narok Garissa Kwale Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Goat prices All ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats in April 2020 which was attributed to the good body condition of goats and reduced volumes of livestock presented for sale due to closure of markets in some areas as result of restrictions placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. In Samburu County, for instance, the price of a medium-sized two-year old buck increased by 16 percent to Kshs 3,560 from Kshs 3,070 recorded in March which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,820 by 26 percent. Likewise, current average prices for goats in West Pokot, Kilifi, Wajir, Turkana and Kajiado were above LTA by 45, 34, 33, 29 and 24 percent respectively. Table 6 demonstrates the trend in goat prices in April 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Turkana Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Wajir Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Kwale Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Isiolo Mandera Kitui Tana River Garissa Turkana Kilifi Makueni Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Mandera Isiolo Nyeri Narok Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Crop production The impact of the heavy rains received during the month was mixed; while they have led to good performance in crops planted on gentle slopes, they have also led to poor performance in farms located on flat plains and low lying areas due to flooding and waterlogging. The main farm activities carried out during the month included weeding and control of pests and diseases. Early planted beans, green grams and cow peas are currently at flowering to pod formation stage while maize, millet and sorghum are at knee height stage. During the month under review, cases of fall armyworm were reported in Makueni and Meru (Meru North) County. Desert locust infestation was also reported in Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and in Igembe Central in Meru County. Intervention measures carried out to control the desert locust invasion included community sensitization, surveillance and monitoring of hoppers and swarms, and conducting both ground and aerial spraying. Maize prices In most ASAL areas, prices of maize were below or close to the 2015 - 19 average and remained stable compared to last month as reflected in Table 7. However, there were reports of price spikes in a number of counties such as Embu, Narok, Kilifi, Wajir, Meru and Kwale which was attributed to increased demand occasioned by market closures, panic buying, high cost of transport, and supply shortages due to COVID-19 prevention related restrictions. In Embu (Mbeere) County, for instance, maize prices increased by 24 percent from Kshs 31 per kg in March to Kshs 41 in April which is 26 percent higher than the three-year mean of Kshs 33. Similarly, in Kilifi County retail price of maize increased by 19 percent from Kshs 42 in March to Kshs 49 per kg. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Mandera Baringo Wajir Marsabit Lamu Samburu Garissa Laikipia Kajiado Tharaka Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana Tana River Makueni Isiolo Narok Kitui Nyeri Samburu Garissa Mandera Turkana Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Isiolo Tana River Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Wajir Kitui Kwale Narok Access to water Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water for households are currently below the 2015-2019 average while at the same time most counties registered an improving trend in April as most areas continued to receive moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the month. For instance, there was a 48 percent reduction in the average trekking distance to water points for households in Kilifi, from 2.3 km in March to 1.2 km in April. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 1.2 km was 79 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 5.6 km. likewise, in Samburu County, average distance to watering points for households reduced by 30 percent from 4.6 km in March to 3.2 km in April. At the same time, return distances to water sources for households in Mandera County dropped from 8.2 km in March to 5.8 km in April a reduction of 29 percent. However, in Tana River County, household trekking distances increased by a margin of 21 percent from 4.2 km in March to 5.1 km in April which is also above the LTA distance of 4.5 km by 13 percent. The increase in distances was attributed to flooding which contaminated most of the open water sources hence forcing households to walk long distances to access clean water from boreholes. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Samburu Wajir Makueni Meru Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Narok Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Garissa Embu Tharaka Kajiado West Pokot Nyeri Baringo Embu Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Kwale Samburu Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Turkana Wajir Isiolo Narok West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Makueni Kajiado Garissa Tana River As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. For example, in Turkana County return distance for livestock from grazing areas to watering points decreased considerably by a proportion of 31 percent to 4 km in April from 5.8 km in March which is also below the long term mean of 7.5 km by 47 percent. Similarly, in Kitui, distance covered by livestock to water sources decreased by 12 percent from 4.1 km in March to 3.6 km in April, while in Kwale the distance trekked by livestock to access water decreased by 31 percent from 3.9 km in March to 2.7 km in April. In the same way, current return distances for livestock in Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Narok, Mandera and West Pokot are below the 2015 - 19 LTA by 75, 72, 71, 65, 61 and 45 percent respectively. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is shown in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Tana River Meru Samburu Kwale Marsabit Narok Turkana Kitui Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Lamu Baringo Wajir Garissa Embu Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Kitui Mandera Embu Marsabit Wajir Laikipia Kwale Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Turkana Garissa Baringo Narok Taita Taveta Makueni Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase larger quantities of maize in April compared with the long term mean, for example, in Tana River County, ToT were better since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 83 kg of maize in April compared with the LTA of 44 kg which is 89 percent above the long term mean. In Samburu, ToT improved by 19 percent in April as households could purchase 74 kg of maize compared with 62 kg in March which is 54 percent higher than the normal ToT of 48 kg, while in Taita Taveta County, ToT increased significantly from 126 kg in March to 147 kg of maize in April, a 17 percent rise. In most counties, a general rise in the price of goats was the major driver of the improved terms of trade. However, in Embu (Mbeere) County, the terms of trade decreased considerably by 34 percent from 146 kg of maize in March to 96 kg in April signifying that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat in April compared with previous month. Similarly, in Kajiado, Narok, Kitui, Baringo and Marsabit terms of trade decreased by 25, 19, 17, 16 and 15 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties was largely attributed to a marginal increase in maize prices and decrease in goat prices which was associated with disruption or closure of markets in some areas due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) West Pokot Meru Tana River Embu Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Mandera Lamu Taita Taveta Kajiado Kwale Wajir Tharaka Turkana Taita Taveta Samburu Kwale Wajir Nyeri (Kieni) Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Makueni Baringo Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Mandera Kajiado Marsabit Narok Kilifi Kitui Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 counties reporting prevalence of children with MUAC less than 135 mm which was close to or below LTA. In addition, 12 counties are now on a stable or improving trend, compared to 15 in March. For instance, in Tana River County the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 14.5 percent in March to 13 percent in April. Similarly, in Meru (Meru North), the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition decreased by 6 percent from 10.6 percent in March to 10 percent in April, while in Lamu the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped by 5 percent from 6.3 percent in March to 6 percent in April. This improvement was attributed to increase in milk consumption and enhanced dietary intake. However, in three counties, Tana River, Lamu and Samburu the proportions of children with MUAC less than 135 mm was higher than the April long term average. The above normal malnutrition status in these counties was associated high disease prevalence and poor maternal care such as poor breastfeeding practices. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Samburu Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Baringo Narok Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Mandera Meru Kajiado Tharaka Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Marsabit Mandera Makueni Tharaka Kwale Narok Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received in April 2020, environmental indicators in all counties have returned to normal with the trend improving in 7 counties while a stable trend was observed in 16 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, , Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 2.0 Other food security challenges Nearly all ASALs counties received average to above average in April that resulted to loss of lives, displacement, flooding and landslides which adversely affected ASAL communities livelihoods, assets and infrastructure. By end of April, floods had displaced more than 100,000 people and killed about 80 people since March when the long rains season started. The most affected ASAL counties include: Tana River, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Kajiado and Baringo. Furthermore, the heavy rains have increased the risk of health emergencies and provided conditions conducive to the further breeding of desert locusts. New swarms from current breeding will form from mid-June onwards, coinciding with the start of the long rains harvest. Currently, ground and aerial control operations against hopper bands is ongoing in Samburu, Marsabit and Turkana. 3.0 Projected food security situation The projected continuation of the March-April-May (MAM) long rains season in May 2020 is likely to be conducive for agricultural production while the ongoing wet conditions are expected to sustain and further improve the forage and water situation across ASAL counties. In most ASAL areas, the prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of May. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, desert locust infestation which is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops and the disruption of markets operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic are likely to negatively affect household incomes, prices of food and livestock which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 4.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th March VCI-3 month as at 27th April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 92.16 85.07 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Central 89.81 90.68 Eldama 74.20 79.69 Mogotio 91.68 80.90 North 93.10 89.25 South 94.89 85.83 Tiaty 95.07 84.68 MANDERA County 79.33 66.83 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class while all other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 64.95 53.54 M. East 61.49 46.80 Lafey 71.76 55.12 M. North 83.76 68.57 M. South 97.71 82.52 M. West 75.58 72.39 TURKANA County 117.71 117.33 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. This is due to good rains received during the ongoing MAM rainy season. T Central 122.39 119.13 T. East 79.49 70.38 T. Loima 141.64 136.92 T. North 117.9 120.08 T. South 118.26 118.85 T. West 128.36 134.84 MARSABIT County 89.83 70.51 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisaimis 102.96 76.21 Moyale 70.83 57.89 N. Horr 86.28 69.82 107.67 82.90 WAJIR County 75.85 58.83 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, significant decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness W. East 88.23 66.44 W. Eldas 63.38 49.22 W. North 89.92 W. South 67.25 53.46 W. Tarbaj 80.34 64.03 W. West 55.31 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th March VCI-3 month as at 27th April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 77.19 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 87.32 70.01 S. North 96.71 83.45 S. West 92.18 84.93 GARISSA County 77.84 68.44 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 70.78 61.71 Daadab 61.14 52.48 83.23 73.03 Ijara 93.71 85.62 Lagdera 70.24 59.29 Dujis 59.29 ISIOLO County 77.90 64.03 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 80.56 64.46 I. South 73.84 63.37 RIVER County 98.96 87.85 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 81.98 68.03 Galole 115.81 96.83 Garsen 102.84 99.05 KAJIADO County 105.80 96.98 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 98.06 91.35 K. East 101.96 94.60 K. North 94.03 88.73 K. South 102.05 94.11 K. West 115.12 103.7 LAIKIPIA County 87.19 77.27 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 87.96 82.55 L. North 91.02 79.13 L. West 79.66 71.25 THARAKA NITHI County 83.70 80.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chuka 83.56 89.35 Maara 80.11 86.05 Tharaka 84.91 74.69 POKOT County 101.9 96.36 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 104.44 94.58 Kapenguria 107.24 101.71 Pokot South 97.17 102.96 Sigor 95.55 91.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th March VCI-3 month as at 27th April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 94.75 94.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 87.82 92.39 Mbeere North 94.69 93.57 Mbeere South 99.49 Runyenjes 84.92 91.15 KITUI County 100.82 94.70 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 101.06 98.20 Kitui East 105.53 98.27 Mwingi Central 96.74 88.63 Mwingi North 87.05 76.87 Mwingi West 108.6 100.67 Kitui Rural 103.98 103.79 Kitui South 103.68 100.27 Kitui West 109.19 101.24 MAKUENI County 102.65 99.46 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 105.17 103.38 Kibwezi East 97.50 95.86 Kibwezi West 101.90 99.87 Kilome 108.19 105.12 Makueni 106.17 98.23 Mbooni 106.85 102.59 County 87.79 85.35 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 93.11 92.30 Central Imenti 83.65 86.55 Igembe Central 90.24 82.13 Igembe North 89.97 80.13 Igembe South 78.97 75.26 North Imenti 89.00 90.26 South Imenti 76.05 85.82 Tigania East 86.72 82.68 Tigania West 99.63 99.46 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th March VCI-3 month as at 27th April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 86.96 86.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.36 83.79 Mathira 80.55 79.97 Mukurweini 106.61 106.72 100.93 98.41 Othaya 86.81 90.37 86.83 KILIFI County 84.45 86.20 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 95.66 Kaloleni 89.99 100.39 Magarini 80.38 80.38 Malindi 83.46 Kilifi-North 88.51 82.41 Rabai 93.87 99.48 Kilifi-South 100.29 95.55 KWALE County 97.41 101.81 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 106.65 105.45 Lungalunga 94.14 Matuga 90.54 96.54 Msambweni 92.00 93.58 County 90.74 89.19 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88.89 Lamu West 91.28 89.36 TAITA TAVETA County 105.70 107.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Mwatate 107.2 107.36 Taveta 106.68 103.13 106.71 109.76 Wundanyi 113.42 112.32 NAROK County 91.18 91.78 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Narok-East 96.41 97.00 Emurua Dikirr 90.84 83.02 Kilgoris 87.39 85.70 Narok North 84.99 Narok South 92.75 94.33 Narok West 93.31 94.09 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "June_2020.pdf": "June 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Early onset of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall coupled with the good rainfall performance during the months of April and May has impacted positively on both crop and livestock production in most ASAL counties. In all ASAL areas, livestock body condition has improved significantly as a result of availability of pasture and water which has led to increased milk availability and household income from higher livestock prices. In most of the marginal agricultural counties, crops are in fairly good condition and in some of the areas like Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. However, the heavy rainfall experienced during the March to May period also provided favourable conditions for breeding and multiplication of desert locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo counties. Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators across the ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently classified in the normal drought stage with the trend improving in two counties and remaining stable in 19 counties. Drought phase classification, May 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River, Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa Marsabit, Kwale Alert Alarm Emergency Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of May, various ASAL areas received substantial amounts of rainfall. In most ASAL counties the cumulative amount of rainfall received in May 2020 was near to above- average. For instance, in Baringo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Kitui, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot and Turkana the rainfall exceeded 75 percent of the long term mean for May. The above-average rains experienced since March have benefited crop development and pasture regeneration. However, the heavy rainfall has also provided favourable conditions for the further breeding and multiplication of desert locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo counties. Vegetation condition Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late May 2019 with that in late May 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are within normal to above normal ranges. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2019 and May 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. In general, the water situation in May across all the ASAL areas was considerably better compared to the one normally witnessed during the month of May in recent years. For example, in Turkana County, by end of May more than 75 percent of the open water sources in all the three livelihood zones were at full capacity, while most pans and dams in Baringo were at 80 to 90 percent of their full capacity. In Kitui County, majority of surface water sources are past 60 percent of their capacity and are likely to retain water for 3 to 4 months. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2020 Livestock production The rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity which translates to enhanced milk and meat production. Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition continued to improve in May which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted substantial pasture and browse growth and regeneration. All counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being good as presented in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2020 Pasture Browse Garissa Embu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Kitui Marsabit Kwale Samburu Turkana Mandera Baringo Tana River Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Wajir Makueni Kitui Marsabit Kwale Samburu Turkana Mandera Baringo Garissa Embu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition remained good in all the 23 ASAL counties which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2020 Cattle Goats Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Kitui Marsabit Kwale Samburu Narok Mandera Turkana Baringo Tana River Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Kitui Marsabit Kwale Samburu Narok Mandera Turkana Baringo Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in May 2020 in 16 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River and Kwale average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri (Kieni) Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Taita Taveta Mandera Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Meru North Wajir Narok Kitui Kajiado Samburu Tana River Kwale Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Mandera Baringo Makueni Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Kilifi Samburu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kitui Kwale Narok Turkana Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In addition, across the 23 ASAL counties the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of May. For instance, in Kilifi, Mandera, West Pokot, Isiolo, Wajir, Narok and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 52, 46, 40, 34, 31, 29 and 26 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in May 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Isiolo Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Meru Samburu Kilifi Baringo Garissa Laikipia Narok Tharaka Kwale Makueni Embu Mandera Kajiado Kitui Turkana Narok Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Kwale Makueni Embu Marsabit Meru Samburu Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Tana River Isiolo West Pokot Wajir Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In West Pokot County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two- year old buck increased to Kshs 4,237 from Kshs 4110 recorded in April which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,877 by 47 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Samburu and Turkana were above LTA by 37, 31 and 25 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Marsabit and Makueni counties decreased and were below the 2015-19 average due to closure of markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Turkana Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Meru Isiolo Narok Samburu Wajir Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Embu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Mandera Tana River Makueni Marsabit Kwale Narok Baringo Kitui Garissa Isiolo Turkana Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Samburu Kajiado Tana River Lamu West Pokot Embu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Wajir Crop production In marginal agricultural areas, the main crops under cultivation are maize, beans, green grams, cow peas, pigeon peas, millet, and sorghum. Majority of the crops are in fair condition and were at flowering stage of growth. On the other hand, in some areas such as Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. Maize prices Table 7 displays the trends in maize prices in May 2020. In about 20 out of the 23 ASAL counties, the price of maize fell or remained stable in May. At the same time, the current maize prices are largely below average with over 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Embu County, the decrease in maize price was attributed to harvest of various crops including maize, green grams, cowpeas and pigeon peas which had thereby led to replenishing of household stocks. In Makueni, below normal maize prices was as a result of the bumper harvest from the previous season which had continued to ensure a steady supply of the commodity in the local markets. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Tana River Marsabit Samburu Baringo Kajiado Kwale Wajir Makueni Embu Turkana Kitui Isiolo Narok Kilifi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Laikipia Tana River West Pokot Makueni Turkana Kwale Samburu Garissa Mandera Narok Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Nyeri Taita Taveta Marsabit Kilifi Tharaka Wajir Kitui Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in close to 90 percent of the ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the increase in water availability as most open water sources were recharged by the rains received since the start of the long rains season in March. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Taita Taveta Kwale West Pokot Wajir Tana River Isiolo Marsabit Meru Samburu Kilifi Turkana Nyeri Mandera Kajiado Baringo Garissa Laikipia Narok Tharaka Kitui Makueni Embu Baringo Garissa Kajiado Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Kitui Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Wajir In all counties except in Lamu, access to water for livestock was better in May compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Kitui West Pokot Wajir Tana River Isiolo Marsabit Meru Samburu Kilifi Turkana Nyeri Mandera Kajiado Baringo Garissa Tharaka Narok Makueni Embu Baringo Garissa Mandera Narok Samburu Tana River Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Wajir Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in May 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The lagest improvements were in Embu (Mbeere), Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Garissa, where terms of trade appreciated by 44, 19, 15 and 5 percent respectively. The improvement in ToT recorded in ASAL areas during the month under review is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Meru Tana River Embu Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Mandera Kwale Kajiado Tharaka Wajir Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Samburu Kwale Wajir Baringo Garissa Makueni Laikipia Mandera Kajiado Narok Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Turkana West Pokot Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement (Table 11). The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 20 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. However, in Kajiado, Samburu and Tana River malnutrition prevalence rates were above LTA. In Samburu County, for instance, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has maintained upward trend since March 2020. The increase in malnutrition cases was attributed low access to health services due to fear of transmission of COVID-19 and hence mothers and caregivers are not taking their children for routine services. Current rate of children at risk of malnutrition in Samburu stands at 26.2 percent which indicates that majority of children are at risk for acute malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kajiado Samburu Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Baringo Narok Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Mandera Meru Tharaka Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Kwale Baringo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought stage with the trend improving in two counties and remaining stable in 19 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, May 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River ,Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa Marsabit, Kwale Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 2.0 Projected food security situation In most ASAL areas, pasture and browse quantity and quality is projected to remain in good condition over the next one month which is likely to support enhanced livestock productivity including increase in milk production and improved body condition of livestock. The prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of June. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 3.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th May 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th April 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th May 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 85.07 81.89 Following the good rains received in March, April and May, current vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Central 90.68 84.87 Eldama 79.69 73.66 Mogotio 75.73 North 89.25 83.66 South 85.83 80.05 Tiaty 84.68 84.94 MANDERA County 66.83 67.93 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class while all other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 53.54 59.59 M. East 48.59 Lafey 55.12 60.49 M. North 68.57 70.61 M. South 82.52 74.92 M. West 72.39 74.81 TURKANA County 117.33 101.84 As a result of the above normal rains received during the MAM rainy season, vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. Central 119.13 109.17 T. East 70.38 75.82 T. Loima 136.92 116.93 T. North 120.08 95.46 T. South 118.85 114.95 T. West 134.84 110.35 MARSABIT County 70.51 64.72 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisamis 76.21 66.68 Moyale 57.89 54.44 N. Horr 69.82 65.89 71.03 WAJIR County 58.83 52.56 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, slight decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness. W. East 66.44 60.63 W. Eldas 49.22 42.09 W. North 65.45 W. South 53.46 49.48 W. Tarbaj 64.03 61.25 W. West 55.31 39.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th April 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th May 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 77.19 74.58 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 70.01 69.34 S. North 83.45 78.89 S. West 84.93 81.14 GARISSA County 68.44 65.80 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 61.71 66.81 Daadab 52.48 54.76 73.03 69.15 Ijara 85.62 75.80 Lagdera 59.29 57.21 Dujis 58.88 ISIOLO County 64.03 62.60 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 64.46 61.01 I. South 63.37 65.03 RIVER County 87.85 80.23 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 68.03 66.22 Galole 96.83 83.22 Garsen 99.05 90.24 KAJIADO County 96.98 86.35 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 91.35 79.00 K. East 83.74 K. North 88.73 81.20 K. South 94.11 85.04 K. West 103.7 92.80 LAIKIPIA County 77.27 72.70 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 82.55 78.01 L. North 79.13 72.65 L. West 71.25 70.24 THARAKA NITHI County 80.09 67.75 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 89.35 77.31 Maara 86.05 75.10 Tharaka 74.69 61.79 POKOT County 96.36 85.48 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 94.58 81.69 Kapenguria 101.71 87.41 Pokot South 102.96 93.60 Sigor 91.17 85.96 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th April 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th May 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 94.92 83.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 92.39 80.13 Mbeere North 93.57 82.56 Mbeere South 97.50 85.45 Runyenjes 91.15 80.31 KITUI County 94.70 87.54 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 87.17 Kitui East 98.27 89.93 Mwingi Central 88.63 84.17 Mwingi North 76.87 73.20 Mwingi West 100.67 93.55 Kitui Rural 103.79 93.61 Kitui South 100.27 92.24 Kitui West 101.24 89.50 MAKUENI County 99.46 89.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 103.38 93.78 Kibwezi East 95.86 88.93 Kibwezi West 99.87 90.59 Kilome 105.12 89.69 Makueni 98.23 86.05 Mbooni 102.59 95.41 County 85.35 79.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 81.32 Central Imenti 86.55 81.59 Igembe Central 82.13 78.94 Igembe North 80.13 75.34 Igembe South 75.26 73.68 North Imenti 90.26 83.19 South Imenti 85.82 81.17 Tigania East 82.68 75.79 Tigania West 99.46 89.03 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th April 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th May 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 86.66 81.05 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 83.79 79.34 Mathira 79.97 78.99 Mukurweini 106.72 99.36 98.41 91.35 Othaya 90.37 77.78 90.50 81.55 KILIFI County 86.20 76.28 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 95.66 89.34 Kaloleni 100.39 83.13 Magarini 80.38 71.93 Malindi 83.46 67.53 Kilifi-North 82.41 61.17 Rabai 99.48 88.94 Kilifi-South 95.55 78.12 KWALE County 101.81 86.79 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 105.45 90.87 Lungalunga 97.30 86.23 Matuga 96.54 75.85 Msambweni 93.58 68.67 County 89.19 85.36 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88.89 84.61 Lamu West 89.36 TAITA TAVETA County 107.94 95.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Mwatate 107.36 96.26 Taveta 103.13 92.63 109.76 96.66 Wundanyi 112.32 102.6 NAROK County 91.78 84.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Narok-East 97.00 89.99 Emurua Dikirr 83.02 69.73 Kilgoris 85.70 74.97 Narok-North 84.99 83.39 Narok-South 94.33 85.27 Narok-West 94.09 88.88 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "July_2020.pdf": "July 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good performance of the March-April- May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are above normal ranges. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and browse and short trekking distances from grazing areas to water points. Consequently, livestock productivity especially production has increased in most ASAL areas. On-going harvesting of pulses, maize, millet and sorghum has replenished household food stocks in the marginal agricultural counties thereby improving food availability. In adition, during the month of June prices of cereals declined further while those of livestock remained above average which led to improved terms of trade for livestock keepers in nearly all the ASAL counties. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Moreover, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators across the ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently classified in the normal drought stage with the trend improving in one county, worsening in five while 17 counties recorded a stable trend. Drought phase classification, May 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Marsabit, Kwale, Makueni, Isiolo, Garissa Alert Alarm Emergency Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall A good number of ASAL counties like Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Kitui experienced generally dry conditions during the month of June. However, a few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and Samburu recorded substantial amounts of rainfall which were mostly above their long term average for the month of June. Overall for many ASAL areas, the above normal March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rains have supported regeneration of pasture and browse and has been favourable to crop production. Vegetation condition Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late June 2019 with that in late June 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are above normal ranges. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2019 and June 2020 Water sources In almost all ASAL counties, majority of the open water sources such as water pans and dams have water and thus the water situation remained unchanged from what was reported in May 2020. As a result, average return distances to water for both households and livestock in most counties are stable and remained within seasonal ranges. Livestock production Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2020 Livestock production indicators continued improving during the month of June. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and browse and short trekking distances from grazing areas to water points. In addition, livestock productivity especially milk production has increased in most ASAL areas. Pasture and browse condition Most counties reported good pasture and browse condition with few counties including Makueni Mandera, Tana River, Meru, Turkana and Wajir classifying the current state of pasture and browse as being fair as shown in Table 2 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2020 Pasture Browse Makueni Mandera Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Tana River Wajir Makueni Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Samburu Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition in all the 23 ASAL counties was noticeably good in comparison to previous years and similar time last year which was largely attributed to enhanced availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2020 Cattle Goats Baringo Turkana Kwale Mandera Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi Samburu Kitui Kajiado Makueni Garissa Laikipia Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Baringo Turkana Kwale Mandera Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi Samburu Kitui Kajiado Makueni Garissa Laikipia Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in June 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kitui, Narok, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Wajir Kitui Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Turkana Kwale Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In most ASAL areas the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of June. For instance, in West Pokot, Tharaka, Wajir, Tana River and Kajiado the current prices are above LTA by 36, 32, 30, 28 and 21 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in June 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Wajir Tana River Isiolo Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Tharaka Kwale Baringo Garissa Kilifi Nyeri Kitui Laikipia Mandera Samburu Turkana Kitui Makueni Wajir Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Tharaka Kwale Marsabit Kajiado Samburu Tana River West Pokot Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of June, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In Samburu County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two-year old goat increased to Kshs 3875 from Kshs 3,570 recorded in May which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,795 by 39 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Wajir, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River were above LTA by 33, 25, 18 and 16 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Makueni counties remained below the 2015-19 average due to closure of the main livestock markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Samburu Turkana Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Narok Baringo Kwale West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kitui Mandera Marsabit Makueni Tharaka Nithi Tana River Samburu Laikipia Kajiado Kwale Wajir Baringo Kitui Garissa Kilifi Turkana Narok Mandera Nyeri Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Crop production The general condition of crops in the ASAL counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) is fairly good and households expect to realize a normal harvest. Currently, harvesting of beans, green grams, cowpeas, millet, sorghum maize and dolichos has started in most of the marginal agricultural areas. Maize prices In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with about 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Tharaka, for example, the average price of a kilogramme of maize in June was Kshs 36 which is 18 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Meru (Meru North), and Kilifi were below LTA by 27, 20, 13 and 10 percent respectively. The below normal maize prices recorded in the marginal agricultural counties was as a result of abundant availability of the commodity due to start of harvesting in most areas. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in June 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Kwale Kitui Samburu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Narok Makueni Laikipia Kilifi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Kwale Wajir West Pokot Samburu Garissa Mandera Narok Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Isiolo Marsabit Turkana Kitui Makueni Nyeri Tana River Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in about 90 percent of the ASAL counties. However, return distances to water sources for households have started to increase in a number of counties. For instance, in Kwale County, households had to walk an average of 4.4 km in June which is an increase of 63 percent compared to the distance recorded in the previous month of 2.7 km. In the same way, in Tharaka, average household return distances increased to 3 km in June from 2.8 km in May representing an increase of 7 percent. The observed increase in average distances to water points was attributed to the cessation of the long rains which occurred in May and the corresponding drying up of open water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kwale Tharaka Taita Taveta Tana River Makueni Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Wajir , West Pokot Nyeri, Samburu Baringo, Isiolo Embu, Garissa Meru, Narok Kilifi, Kitui Turkana Samburu West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo, Kilifi Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu Baringo, Garissa Kajiado, Kitui Embu, Makueni Mandera, Narok Tharaka Nithi Tana River The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. In all counties except in Kwale and Laikipia, access to water for livestock was better in June compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Kwale Laikipia Makueni Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Marsabit, Nyeri Narok, Samburu Wajir, West Pokot Baringo, Embu Meru, Garissa Mandera, Turkana Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Makueni, Marsabit Turkana, Garissa Mandera, Narok Wajir, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Baringo, Embu Isiolo, Kwale Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in June 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The enhanced ToT was as a result of the good body condition of goats which translated to favourable market prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Kwale Kajiado Wajir Tana River West Pokot Taita Taveta Meru Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Narok, Embu Baringo Turkana Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Makueni Wajir Health and nutrition Table 11 illustrates the trends in the prevalence of malnutrition as indicated by the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June 2020. Overall, the trend in most ASAL counties is improving or stable. In the pastoral counties, improvement in the nutrition status of children is attributed to milk availability while in the marginal agricultural areas the positive trend is associated better dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables, pulses and cereals. However, a worsening trend in the nutrition status of children was recorded in Isiolo, Narok and Kajiado. For example, in Narok County, the proportion of children under five years of age who are at risk of malnutrition rose to 6.6 percent in June from 5.5 percent in May. The increase was linked to limited access to health services since some of the caregivers stopped taking their children for routine health monitoring and treatment because of fear of COVID-19 while in Isiolo County the worsening situation was associated with rising cases of intestinal worms, increase in upper respiratory tract infections and diarrheal ailments among the under-fives. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Samburu Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Baringo Narok Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nyeri Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kilifi Mandera Baringo Kitui Makueni Kwale Marsabit Samburu Laikipia Tharaka Wajir Tana River Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Narok Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought phase with the trend improving in one county, worsening in five and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, June 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Marsabit, Kwale, Makueni, Isiolo, Garissa Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Projected food security situation Following the above-average March to May long rains received in most of the ASAL areas, pasture and water availability for livestock has increased significantly. In the pastoral areas, the available forage and water is projected to last up to the next rains in October. The abundant rangeland resources are expected to result to increased livestock productivity, especially average to above- average livestock prices and near-average milk production. In the marginal agricultural counties, it is expected that crop production will be average to above average hence the long rains crop harvest is likely to improve food security in most of the semi- arid counties by providing casual wage labour income earning opportunities and increasing household food availability during the period between July and September 2020. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. Recommendations Enhance implementation of priority drought preparedness interventions Promote community based livestock disease surveillance and also intensify livestock disease control measures Continued advocacy for pasture conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management Sensitize farmers on appropriate post-harvest management techniques in the marginal agricultural and agro-pastoral areas. Enhance awareness raising on COVID-19 and conduct campaigns on hygiene and other disease prevention and containment measures Upscale nutritional screening in areas with high prevalence of children at risk of malnutrition. Provision of water treatment chemicals for households getting water from open water sources. Continue monitoring and conduct control measure (both aerial and ground spraying operations) to supress the spread of desert locust in affected counties such as Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th June 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2020 VCI-3 month as June 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 81.89 87.93 Vegetation greenness remained above normal in all parts of the county attributed to the cumulative effects of the enhanced rainfall received during the MAM season. The county also received above average rainfall in June 2020 Central 84.87 86.57 Eldama 73.66 69.71 Mogotio 75.73 85.34 North 83.66 87.58 South 80.05 82.01 Tiaty 84.94 95.13 MANDERA County 67.93 83.38 Significant improvement especially for Mandera East which currently is in the above normal vegetation greenness band from normal vegetation greenness recorded in May Banissa 59.59 80.18 M. East 48.59 68.71 Lafey 60.49 84.64 M. North 70.61 87.93 M. South 74.92 79.77 M. West 74.81 87.45 TURKANA County 101.84 85.05 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties T. Central 109.17 93.37 T. East 75.82 87.62 T. Loima 116.93 103.10 T. North 95.46 63.80 T. South 114.95 107.04 T. West 110.35 84.65 MARSABIT County 64.72 64.30 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Laisaimis 66.68 69.38 Moyale 54.44 59.22 N. Horr 65.89 62.30 71.03 72.26 WAJIR County 52.56 54.53 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, slight decline was observed in Eldas and Wajir South which currently are in the normal vegetation greenness class while Wajir West has deteriorated further to moderate vegetation deficit W. East 60.63 68.36 W. Eldas 42.09 43.05 W. North 65.45 75.55 W. South 49.48 48.22 W. Tarbaj 61.25 68.86 W. West 39.63 32.06 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2020 VCI-3 month June 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 74.58 78.93 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness S. East 69.34 71.98 S. North 78.89 85.39 S. West 81.14 85.03 GARISSA County 65.80 69.71 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Balambala 66.81 82.63 Daadab 54.76 63.51 69.15 74.06 Ijara 75.80 69.47 Lagdera 57.21 56.96 Dujis 58.88 68.19 ISIOLO County 62.60 53.64 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal I. North 61.01 51.43 I. South 65.03 57.01 RIVER County 80.23 78.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness 66.22 79.54 Galole 83.22 77.19 Garsen 90.24 78.82 KAJIADO County 86.35 77.99 The entire county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band K. Central 79.00 70.95 K. East 83.74 71.94 K. North 81.20 K. South 85.04 75.89 K. West 92.80 86.50 LAIKIPIA County 72.70 79.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period L. East 78.01 79.93 L. North 72.65 80.31 L. West 70.24 77.96 THARAKA NITHI County 67.75 65.19 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness Chulga 77.31 75.28 Maara 71.74 Tharaka 61.79 65.19 POKOT County 85.48 82.92 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties Kacheliba 81.69 81.54 Kapenguria 87.41 83.57 Pokot South 93.60 79.24 Sigor 85.96 87.09 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2020 VCI-3 month as June 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 83.27 75.52 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Manyatta 80.13 77.99 Mbeere North 82.56 74.16 Mbeere South 85.45 74.59 Runyenjes 80.31 79.27 KITUI County 87.54 84.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kitui Central 87.17 84.65 Kitui East 89.93 88.77 Mwingi Central 84.17 85.05 Mwingi North 73.20 71.03 Mwingi West 93.55 89.08 Kitui Rural 93.61 88.24 Kitui South 92.24 86.55 Kitui West 89.50 86.82 MAKUENI County 89.91 81.63 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kaiti 93.78 86.36 Kibwezi East 88.93 77.38 Kibwezi West 90.59 77.57 Kilome 89.69 78.77 Makueni 86.05 85.61 Mbooni 95.41 94.39 County 79.05 73.15 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Buuri 81.32 70.56 Central Imenti 81.59 70.25 Igembe Central 78.94 80.73 Igembe North 75.34 71.51 Igembe South 73.68 79.03 North Imenti 83.19 71.40 South Imenti 81.17 75.56 Tigania East 75.79 66.97 Tigania West 89.03 73.97 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2020 VCI-3 month as June 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 81.05 77.65 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kieni 79.34 76.80 Mathira 78.99 78.20 Mukurweini 99.36 89.79 91.35 84.71 Othaya 77.78 73.85 81.55 75.62 KILIFI County 76.28 71.87 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 89.34 81.43 Kaloleni 83.13 74.52 Magarini 71.93 68.80 Malindi 67.53 68.48 Kilifi-North 61.17 62.08 Rabai 88.94 78.25 Kilifi-South 78.12 70.04 KWALE County 86.79 72.11 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kinango 90.87 74.06 Lungalunga 86.23 73.97 Matuga 75.85 65.20 Msambweni 68.67 57.46 County 85.36 80.47 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness Lamu East 84.61 78.43 Lamu West 85.80 81.65 TAITA TAVETA County 95.94 83.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Mwatate 96.26 90.80 Taveta 92.63 83.68 96.66 80.48 Wundanyi 102.60 100.51 NAROK County 84.92 73.83 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Narok-East 89.99 77.20 Emurua Dikirr 69.73 59.95 Kilgoris 74.97 64.25 Narok-North 83.39 71.93 Narok-South 85.27 74.38 Narok-West 88.88 78.24 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "August_2020.pdf": "August 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The above average rainfall recorded during the March to May rainy season has led to enhancement of the environmental indicators and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with eight counties reporting a worsening trend while 14 counties recorded a stable trend and the trend improving in one county. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and browse and short trekking distances from grazing areas to water points. Consequently, livestock productivity especially milk production has increased in most ASAL areas. In comparison to the long term average, average milk production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. In the marginal agricultural counties crops are generally in favourable condition due to the enhanced March to May rainfall and crop yields are expected to be above average across ASAL counties. The 2020 March-April- May cropping season was characterized by a timely start and harvesting is currently ongoing in most of the semi-arid counties. In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Drought phase classification, July 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River, Mandera, Meru (Meru North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, (Mbeere), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Makueni Alert Alarm Emergency Drought status Drought indicator Rainfall General dry weather conditions prevailed over the south-eastern (Kitui, Makueni) and north eastern (Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo and Wajir) counties. However, counties mainly in the north western part of the country such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu and Coastal counties (Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale) the received significant amounts of rainfall that was above the July long term average. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by light rains occurred in some ASAL areas such as Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kajiado and Laikipia. Vegetation condition The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all the 23 arid and semi-arid counties currently classified in the above normal vegetation greenness category as shown in Figure 1 which compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late July 2019 with that in late July 2020. However, a slight deterioration in the state of the vegetation was observed in three sub counties namely: Wajir South, Wajir West and Isiolo North which are currently classified in the normal vegetation greenness band. Detailed VCI values for July 2020 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Annex 1. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2019 and July 2020 Livestock production Livestock production indicators remained stable during the month of July. The stable trend in both livestock body condition and milk production was attributed to good pasture and browse availability and reduction in the trekking distances from grazing fields to water points. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2020 Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition in most ASAL areas is good to fair (Table 1) mainly as a result of the favourable rainfall performance of both October to December 2019 short rains and the long rains in 2020 which has impacted positively on regeneration of pasture and browse in most counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2020 Pasture Browse Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Tana River Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Turkana Kitui Kajiado Kwale Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Livestock body condition Body condition for most livestock is currently good compared to fair normally as summarized in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, July 2020 Cattle Goats Isiolo Wajir Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Tana River Wajir Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Tana River Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Baringo Turkana Kwale Garissa Kajiado Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is illustrated in Table 3. In comparison to the long term average, average milk production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in eight counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 3.0: Milk production, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Makueni Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Narok Wajir Kwale Kitui Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Baringo Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Tana River Turkana Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Mandera Cattle prices Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in July 2020. In all the ASAL counties current cattle prices are higher than the long term average for the month of July owing mainly to the fact that cattle are still in good body condition. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit Meru (Meru North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot, (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Makueni Tana River Samburu Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Wajir West Pokot Kwale Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Narok Kitui Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Goat prices During the month of July goat prices were close to or above the 2015-19 average in a all ASAL counties. Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 5.0: Goat prices, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit Meru (Meru North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot, (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Makueni Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Kilifi Turkana Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Narok Baringo Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Marsabit Garissa Kwale Samburu Wajir Crop production In nearly all the marginal agricultural counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) crops are generally in favourable condition due to the enhanced March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The MAM cropping season was characterized by a timely start and harvesting was ongoing in most areas. Crop yields are expected to be above average across ASAL counties. Maize prices Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in July 2020. In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with almost 90 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Kitui, for instance, the average price of a kilograms of maize in July was Kshs 34 which is 23 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Narok, Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Nyeri (Kieni), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) were below LTA by 21, 20, 16, 15 and 13 percent respectively. Maize prices will likely be on a reducing trend in the next three months as harvesting will have been completed and households will have stocks in store hence reducing demand. Table 6.0: Maize prices, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Baringo Kwale Marsabit Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok Samburu Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Makueni Laikipia Kilifi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Kwale Wajir West Pokot Samburu Garissa Mandera Narok Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Isiolo Marsabit Turkana Kitui Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Access to water Return distances to watering points for households have significantly reduced due to improvements in water availability. For example, return distances range between 3 and 6 km compared to five kilometres normally in Wajir, 1-2 km compared to 4-10 km normally in Isiolo while in Garissa and Mandera, distances are normal ranging between 5 and10 km. In Tana River, return distances are one kilometre compared to 1-3 km. Similarly, return distances to water sources are normal at less than one kilometre across Kilifi County and in the mixed farming zones of Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Laikipia Wajir Tana River Samburu Nyeri Makueni Kitui Turkana Isiolo Garissa Narok Baringo Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Kwale Makueni Tana River Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Narok Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Mandera Wajir The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. In 16 counties, the average distance to water for livestock is shorter than normal for the time of year largely attributed to enhanced pasture availability which has made livestock to graze close to existing water points. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Garissa Kwale Tharaka Kitui Laikipia Tana River Baringo Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Makueni Narok Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Wajir Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana Kwale Tana River Wajir Samburu Narok Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade Table 9 summarises the goat-to-maize price ratio. In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Kwale Tana River West Pokot Taita Taveta Meru Wajir Makueni Kajiado Kwale Narok Isiolo Kitui Baringo Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Marsabit Samburu Turkana Garissa Kilifi Wajir Health and nutrition The proportion of children aged below five years in ASAL counties who are at risk of malnutrition is estimated using the mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) method (Table 10). In July 2020, counties such as Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Samburu, and Tana River recorded MUAC rates above LTA implying that the nutritional status of children during the month was worse than normal times. The high malnutrition rates in these counties was largely due to poor infant and child care feeding practices and high diseases prevalence. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Upper Circumference Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Baringo Narok Makueni Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kwale Marsabit Samburu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Kitui Mandera Narok Tana River Turkana Drought phase classification The above average rainfall recorded during the March to May rainy season has led to enhancement of the environmental indicators and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase. As at the end of July, eight counties were reporting a worsening trend, 14 counties recorded a stable trend with the trend improving in one county as shown in Table 11. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, July 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River, Mandera , Meru (Meru North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Kwale Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Recommendations Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting vulnerable households across ASAL counties. Installation of water harvesting and storage structures such as water pans and tanks. Support livestock disease surveillance through training of community disease reporters and conduct livestock vaccination campaigns to curb the spread of notifiable disease. Promote pasture establishment and livestock feed conservation including controlled grazing. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices in particular targeting farmers in the agro pastoral areas. Boost community sensitization campaigns on COVID-19 preventive measures including promotion of hand washing and other hygiene practices. Awareness creation on child care practices and provision of essential nutrition commodities to reduce cases of malnutrition among children. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue meetings targeting conflict hotspots to facilitate peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th July 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th June 2020 VCI-3 month as at 27th July Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 87.93 93.94 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness, the situation has Improved compared to the previous month of June. Central 86.57 91.29 Eldama 69.71 77.92 Mogotio 85.34 93.78 North 87.58 93.44 South 82.01 85.50 Tiaty 95.13 101.21 MANDERA County 83.38 92.45 The county has recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above normal in the month of July compared to the previous month of June, with all of its sub counties a recording improvement in Vegetation condition. Banissa 80.18 84.13 M. East 68.71 78.75 Lafey 84.64 97.08 M. North 87.93 94.73 M. South 79.77 93.21 M. West 87.45 94.13 TURKANA County 85.05 82.80 Significant stability in VCI for the county though below the value recorded in the month of June. All sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July as compared to the month of June. T. Central 93.37 94.79 T. East 87.62 85.65 T. Loima 103.1 98.65 T. North 63.80 65.03 T. South 107.04 96.97 T. West 84.65 81.57 MARSABIT County 64.30 64.24 Stability in the VCI condition for the above normal vegetation greenness scale was noticed in the month of July compared with the previous month of June. Greater improvement in VCI value was reported in Saku sub county. Laisaimis 69.38 70.29 Moyale 59.22 61.54 N. Horr 62.30 60.78 72.26 77.81 WAJIR County 54.53 61.41 There was an improvement in the vegetation condition in the entire county with exception of Wajir South and Wajir West that had normal vegetation greenness. W. East 68.36 73.09 W. Eldas 43.05 57.81 W. North 75.55 87.19 W. South 48.22 48.66 W. Tarbaj 68.86 79.32 W. West 32.06 42.50 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th June 2020 VCI-3 month as at 27th July Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 78.93 79.43 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub- counties recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above normal in the month of July as compared to the previous month of June. S. East 71.98 71.73 S. North 85.39 86.23 S. West 85.03 87.35 GARISSA County 69.71 68.08 The entire County has vegetation greenness above normal and vegetation stability across all its sub counties Balambala 82.63 85.89 Daadab 63.51 63.99 74.06 69.77 Ijara 69.47 64.46 Lagdera 56.96 60.33 Dujis 68.19 67.39 ISIOLO County 53.64 50.63 Stability in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county except for Isiolo North that has normal vegetation greenness. I. North 51.43 49.88 I. South 57.01 51.77 RIVER County 78.65 75.43 The county and all sub counties remained at above normal vegetation greenness condition. This situation remained stable in July as compared to last month of June. 79.54 86.16 Galole 77.19 71.36 Garsen 78.82 68.87 KAJIADO County 77.99 79.43 Improvement noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. All the sub-counties have stable vegetation condition in the month of July compared to the month of June. K. Central 70.95 71.14 K. East 71.94 69.13 K. North 68.60 62.49 K. South 75.89 75.26 K. West 86.50 92.32 LAIKIPIA County 79.41 87.75 The county Improved in vegetation greenness and in above normal vegetation greenness. Significant improvement noted in Laikipia West, Laikipia North and Laikipia East when month of July and June are compared. L. East 79.93 84.02 L. North 80.31 90.12 L. West 77.96 85.09 THARAKA NITHI County 65.19 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness. The situation improved slightly when compared to the previous month of June. Chulga 75.28 78.52 Maara 71.74 76.19 Tharaka 65.19 57.85 POKOT County 82.92 84.19 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. The situation showed slight improvement as compared to the previous month of June. Kacheliba 81.54 83.70 Kapenguria 83.57 86.84 Pokot South 79.24 76.67 Sigor 87.09 87.32 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th June 2020 VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 75.52 74.14 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 77.99 82.53 Mbeere North 74.16 71.79 Mbeere South 74.59 70.78 Runyenjes 79.27 82.57 KITUI County 84.27 86.74 The county remained in above normal vegetation greenness condition, with all its sub-counties remaining in stable vegetation condition when compared to the month of June. Kitui Central 84.65 91.32 Kitui East 88.77 94.07 Mwingi Central 85.05 89.60 Mwingi North 71.03 70.38 Mwingi West 89.08 89.26 Kitui Rural 88.24 97.44 Kitui South 86.55 87.31 Kitui West 86.82 93.82 MAKUENI County 81.63 82.55 The county reported slight improvement in VCI value. There has been a significant stability with the county and all its sub-counties in above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kaiti 86.36 85.78 Kibwezi East 77.38 75.81 Kibwezi West 77.57 76.33 Kilome 78.77 78.17 Makueni 85.61 91.80 Mbooni 94.39 99.41 County 73.15 74.33 The vegetation greenness is stable and above normal across the county and its Sub-counties. Specific Preparedness activities by stakeholders key to the process. Buuri 70.56 75.06 Central Imenti 70.25 74.19 Igembe Central 80.73 82.28 Igembe North 71.51 66.74 Igembe South 79.03 81.12 North Imenti 71.40 79.48 South Imenti 75.56 77.75 Tigania East 66.97 64.94 Tigania West 73.97 72.51 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th June 2020 VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 77.65 79.97 The county and its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness condition and stable as compared to the previous month. Kieni 76.80 80.86 Mathira 78.20 78.13 Mukurweini 89.79 87.41 84.71 88.68 Othaya 73.85 73.78 75.62 75.82 KILIFI County 71.87 66.01 Slight deterioration in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. All the sub- counties showed stability in the vegetation greenness level as compared to the month of June. Ganze 81.43 70.76 Kaloleni 74.52 69.31 Magarini 68.80 63.30 Malindi 68.48 69.39 Kilifi-North 62.08 64.89 Rabai 78.25 72.05 Kilifi-South 70.04 65.69 KWALE County 72.11 60.47 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. The county together with all its sub-counties showed a stability in the vegetation condition in the month of July compared with the month of June. Kinango 74.06 59.41 Lungalunga 73.97 59.65 Matuga 66.97 Msambweni 57.46 60.23 County 80.47 72.59 Stability though deteriorating in vegetation condition in both county and sub counties although all remained at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Lamu East 78.43 76.93 Lamu West 81.65 70.08 TAITA TAVETA County 83.85 80.57 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwatate 88.72 Taveta 83.68 82.09 80.48 75.42 Wundanyi 100.51 105.69 NAROK County 73.83 73.78 The entire county and its sub counties stable and in above normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 77.20 74.85 Emurua Dikirr 59.95 62.24 Kilgoris 64.25 63.25 Narok-North 71.93 70.63 Narok-South 74.38 77.91 Narok-West 78.24 76.77 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "September_2020.pdf": "September 2020 Page 1 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sunny and dry weather conditions experienced during the month of August accelerated drying up of water sources leading to increased distances to water sources for both livestock and domestic use. As a result, the average distances to water sources for households and livestock recorded an increase compared to the month of July across the ASAL counties. The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties is still in fair and good condition which has led to improved livestock body condition and increased milk production. Consequently, in most pastoral areas, current livestock productivity remains above the 2015 - 2019 long term average. For instance, livestock prices in all ASAL areas are above average or close to the long term average (LTA). Prices of most cereals remained at average or below average due to an increase in stocks held by households. In most ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable or exhibited an improving trend. During the month under review, terms of trade (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that livestock keepers in almost all the 23 ASAL counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. However, the effects of the dry conditions experienced during the month of August have started to be observed and therefore by end of the month, 11 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. Drought phase classification, August 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Kwale, Meru (Meru North), Kitui Alert Garissa Alarm Emergency Recovery Page 2 Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall August was generally a dry month, particularly in counties like Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Tharaka, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Sunny and dry weather conditions experienced in most ASAL areas led to faster reduction in water availability for both livestock and domestic use. However, during the month of August, few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Samburu and Turkana received enhanced rainfall which were above average compared to the seasonal average for a similar period. Vegetation condition Figure 1 compares Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2019 with August 2020. There was significant vegetation deficit in most ASAL counties in 2019, which is attributed to the poor performance of March-April-May 2019 long rains while the August 2020 VCI map shows enhanced vegetation condition across all counties as a result of the above average rains received during the March to May 2020 rainfall season. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2019 and August 2020 Livestock production Generally, current livestock productivity remains above the 2015 - 2019 long term average that is attributed to the enhanced status of rangeland resources which has led to improved livestock body condition and an increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. The enhanced pasture and browse condition was attributed Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2020 Page 3 to good vegetation rejuvenation owing to the above average rainfall performance during the Mach - May long rains season. However, pasture and browse condition was relatively below normal in Mandera and Meru counties which was associated with the prevalent dry conditions and overgrazing as a result of increase in herd sizes of both large and small stock. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2020 Pasture Browse Mandera Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Tana River Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Tana River Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Baringo Laikipia Turkana Kilifi Isiolo Narok Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition in many ASAL counties ranges from good to fair although the condition of livestock is expected to deteriorate in the next two months since pasture availability is likely to diminish while trekking distances to water sources might increase. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, August 2020 Cattle Goats Nyeri Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Wajir Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Isiolo Tana River Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Tana River Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Baringo Turkana Kwale Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Milk production During the month under review average milk production went up in seven counties, remained stable in eight while another eight counties recorded a downward trend. However, in 14 counties: - Tana River, Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Meru (Meru North), Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Narok, Embu (Mbeere), and Laikipia current milk production was below the 2014 - 2019 long term average. The below normal milk production in Page 4 most of the pastoral counties was attributed to low calving rates. For instance, in Marsabit County, majority of the households sampled reported that they were obtaining milk mainly from goats and sheep since calving in camels and cattle was expected to take place from October. Table 3.0: Milk production, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Wajir Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Makueni Tana River Samburu Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Turkana Narok Baringo Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Tana River Kajiado Isiolo West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Baringo Garissa Kwale Mandera Nyeri Turkana Wajir Cattle prices In nearly all ASAL counties, current market price for cattle are above the 2015 - 19 average price for the month of August. For instance, in Narok, Wajir, Tana River, West Pokot, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 45, 43, 41, 30, 28, 27 and 19 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices are attributed to good livestock body condition against the few number of cattle offered for sale as most of the households hold their stock with the aim of building their herd sizes which has led to a general rise in cattle prices. Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in August 2020. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kwale, Kilifi, Laikipia, Kitui, Lamu, Marsabit, Narok, Meru (Meru North), Samburu, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri (Kieni), Makueni Mandera Turkana Marsabit Tharaka Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Turkana Wajir Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Laikipia Samburu Kajiado Nyeri Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of August goat prices in all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA. The above normal goat prices was attributed to good forage availability leading to improved body condition and hence a rise in their market value. Page 5 Table 5.0: Goat prices, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Wajir, Baringo Marsabit, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit Meru (Meru North), Makueni, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Narok Samburu Tana River Kwale Mandera Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Turkana Wajir Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Kilifi Crop production Harvesting of long rains crops in marginal agricultural areas has been completed in most counties. Overall, maize production is projected to be average to above average except for parts of south- eastern cluster (Embu county, Machakos, Makueni) where production reduced by about 50 percent due to early cessation of rainfall. In Turkana and Samburu, the above average rainfall resulted in water logging leading to reduced production of maize, sorghum and beans by about 10 to 20 percent. The drought tolerant legumes such as pigeon peas, green grams and cow peas production was below average to average across the marginal agriculture clusters. The available maize stocks held by households are expected to last for the next 2 to 3 months. Maize prices During the month under analysis, prices of most cereals remained at average or below average due to an increase in stocks held by households. In most ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable or exhibited an improving trend. Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in August 2020. Table 6.0: Maize prices, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Tana River Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Tharaka West Pokot Turkana Isiolo Makueni Kitui Samburu Nyeri Garissa Laikipia Wajir Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Access to water for households In several ASAL counties the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of July. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Turkana, Makueni, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri, Mandera, Meru and Tana River. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources is attributed to the fact that water levels have reduced in Page 6 some of the open water sources following the cessation of the long rains and loss of water due evaporation. In Narok, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased by 29 percent from 1.4 km in July to 1.8 km in August. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.2 km in July to 4.1 km, rising by 28 percent while in Turkana distance to water sources from the household increased by 24 percent to 4.6 km from 3.7 km recorded in July. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to water sources Garissa Mandera Kajiado Marsabit Wajir Samburu Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Turkana Nyeri Laikipia Kwale Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Tharaka West Pokot Wajir Isiolo Kitui Garissa Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Makueni Baringo Narok Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Meru Tana River Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Tharaka, West Pokot and Baringo. In addition, in 13 out of the 23 ASAL counties access to water for livestock was more challenging in August compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long-term average (LTA). The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance to water sources for livestock, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing to main water sources Samburu, Lamu, Isiolo, Embu, Garissa, Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Marsabit, Kwale, Tana River Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Wajir West Pokot Turkana Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka West Pokot Baringo Tharaka Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Lamu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kwale, Garissa Increase in the average trekking distance to water sources for livestock is mainly attributed drying up of open water sources as a result of the dry weather conditions experienced in August 2020. Distances are expected to increase further in September. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. During the month under review, terms of trade (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that livestock keepers in Page 7 almost all the 23 ASAL counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Samburu Nyeri Baringo Garissa Turkana Narok Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Kwale Wajir Narok Kilifi Baringo Mandera Makueni Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Turkana Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kitui Nyeri Wajir Tana River Kwale Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. In 16 ASAL counties, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition based the on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement during the month of August 2020 was above the long term average. The declining nutrition status recorded in August in comparison to the 2015 - 2019 LTA was attributed to poor infant and young child feeding practices and reduced health seeking behaviour due to fear of COVID-19. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Upper Circumference Taita Taveta Wajir Makueni Turkana Garissa Kwale Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Baringo Kitui Mandera Samburu Laikipia Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Kitui Makueni Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. As at the end of August, 11 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. Page 8 Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, August 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Kwale, Meru (Meru North), Kitui Alert Garissa Alarm Emergency Recovery Page 9 Projected food security situation September is normally a dry month over most parts of the country. The forecast for September 2020 indicates that nearly all arid and semi-arid counties are expected to be sunny and dry for much of the month. There is also an increased likelihood for warmer than usual temperatures in September which could result in high evapotranspiration rates hence a faster than normal drying up of pasture and open water sources. The possibility of rangeland conditions starting to deteriorate will most likely have a negative impact on livestock production due to the declining body condition hence purchasing power for pastoral households is anticipated to decline slightly in September. Consequently, the probability of poor households mainly in the pastoral areas remaining constrained in accessing food through the market will equally be high as a result of the expected decline in the livestock to cereals price ratio. It is highly probable that an upward shift in the rate of malnutrition will be witnessed during the month of September. Recommendations Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Awareness on boiling and treatment of drinking water as most households in ASAL areas are accessing water from unprotected sources. Support integrated medical outreaches to facilitate screening of pregnant and lactating women (PLW) and children under the age of 5 years. Enhance campaigns on COVID-19 containment measures such as good hygiene practices, hand washing, social distancing and wearing of masks. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Livestock disease surveillance and enhanced animal health services. Close monitoring of livestock movement in search of pasture and water and support community peace dialogue and resource use agreements in conflict prone areas. Page 10 Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st August 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 93.94 98.09 Following the above average rains received during the March-April-May (MAM) long rains season and the off season rainfall experienced in June to August 2020, the condition of vegetation in all sub-counties is above normal. Central 91.29 88.95 Eldama 77.92 85.56 Mogotio 93.78 97.22 North 93.44 94.19 South 88.83 Tiaty 101.21 98.09 MANDERA County 92.45 95.49 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Banissa 84.13 85.70 M. East 78.75 88.26 Lafey 97.08 103.1 M. North 94.73 96.99 M. South 93.21 96.12 M. West 94.13 95.56 TURKANA County 91.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. Central 94.79 105.12 T. East 85.65 86.63 T. Loima 98.65 99.48 T. North 65.03 78.99 T. South 96.97 98.83 T. West 81.57 95.23 MARSABIT County 64.24 68.87 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 70.29 73.62 Moyale 61.54 62.73 N. Horr 60.78 67.08 77.81 81.41 WAJIR County 61.41 62.80 At county level the vegetation greenness is in the above normal range although Wajir South sub county recorded normal vegetation greenness. W. East 73.09 69.12 W. Eldas 57.81 62.74 W. North 87.19 83.88 W. South 48.66 47.84 W. Tarbaj 79.32 81.72 W. West 42.50 54.35 Page 11 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 79.43 82.46 The state of vegetation in all sub counties is above the normal range for the period. S. East 71.73 81.76 S. North 86.23 82.33 S. West 87.35 86.15 GARISSA County 68.08 64.81 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 85.89 93.45 Daadab 63.99 66.62 69.77 60.41 Ijara 64.46 51.68 Lagdera 60.33 69.15 Dujis 67.39 72.18 ISIOLO County 50.63 65.47 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. North 49.88 I. South 51.77 66.18 RIVER County 75.43 78.77 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 86.16 95.63 Galole 71.36 Garsen 68.87 68.82 KAJIADO County 79.43 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 71.14 77.98 K. East 69.13 80.29 K. North 62.49 66.55 K. South 75.26 87.85 K. West 92.32 106.36 LAIKIPIA County 87.75 90.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. East 84.02 83.79 L. North 90.12 93.52 L. West 85.09 89.25 THARAKA NITHI County 68.49 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 78.52 78.63 Maara 76.19 78.38 Tharaka 57.85 61.51 POKOT County 84.19 85.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 86.63 Kapenguria 86.84 88.74 Pokot South 76.67 69.77 Sigor 87.32 88.66 Page 12 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 74.14 74.08 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 82.53 78.17 Mbeere North 71.79 74.25 Mbeere South 70.78 72.27 Runyenjes 82.57 75.81 KITUI County 86.74 97.13 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 91.32 106.41 Kitui East 94.07 108.47 Mwingi Central 99.41 Mwingi North 70.38 76.84 Mwingi West 89.26 95.13 Kitui Rural 97.44 112.85 Kitui South 87.31 97.09 Kitui West 93.82 109.24 MAKUENI County 82.55 96.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 85.78 96.51 Kibwezi East 75.81 88.92 Kibwezi West 76.33 89.93 Kilome 78.17 87.28 Makueni 105.17 Mbooni 99.41 118.95 County 74.33 80.57 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 75.06 81.81 Central Imenti 74.19 80.63 Igembe Central 82.28 Igembe North 66.74 72.74 Igembe South 81.12 81.64 North Imenti 79.48 89.34 South Imenti 77.75 81.25 Tigania East 64.94 75.57 Tigania West 86.74 97.13 Page 13 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th July 2020 VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 79.97 82.84 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 80.86 85.85 Mathira 78.13 82.22 Mukurweini 87.41 78.82 88.68 86.89 Othaya 73.78 74.16 75.82 76.65 KILIFI County 66.01 58.72 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Ganze 70.76 58.75 Kaloleni 69.31 56.01 Magarini 58.72 Malindi 69.39 63.43 Kilifi-North 64.89 58.52 Rabai 72.05 59.89 Kilifi-South 65.69 KWALE County 60.47 46.51 The county is in the normal vegetation greenness band. Kinango and Lungalunga showed a deterioration in the vegetation condition recording a normal vegetation greenness in the month of August compared with the situation in July during which the 2 sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 59.41 Lungalunga 59.65 40.52 Matuga 66.97 56.27 Msambweni 60.23 55.27 County 72.59 59.38 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 76.93 65.63 Lamu West 70.08 55.77 TAITA TAVETA County 80.57 85.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Mwatate 88.72 87.68 Taveta 82.09 87.68 75.42 82.61 Wundanyi 105.69 110.8 NAROK County 73.78 79.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 74.85 81.22 Emurua Dikirr 62.24 68.32 Kilgoris 63.25 67.52 Narok-North 70.63 77.16 Narok-South 77.91 84.28 Narok-West 76.77 80.83 Page 14 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Page 15 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "October_2020.pdf": "1 P a g e October 2020 4 P a g e KEY HIGHLIGHTS Most parts of the country experienced generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month of September. However, The historically above-average March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall has continued to impact positively on water availability, forage, and crop production across the ASAL region. During the month under review, livestock body condition for all species was generally good and as a result, in most ASAL areas cattle prices are above the three-year average price for the month of September. In September 2020, the Terms of Trade (ToT) were favourable in nearly all the ASAL counties with the current ToT in over 90 percent of the counties remaining above the LTA. The favourable terms of trade across the counties was credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below-average maize prices. Access to water for livestock was better in September compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above-average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties are within the expected ranges for the time of the year and hence are classified in the normal drought stage while four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, as would be expected towards the end of the dry season. Drought phase classification, September 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Narok Embu (Mbeere) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Tana River Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Kwale Meru (Meru North) Alert Marsabit Mandera Garissa Wajir Alarm Emergency Recovery 4 P a g e Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall Most ASAL counties like Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir experienced generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month of September 2020 which is normal at this time of the year. At the same time, several areas in Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot, Kilifi, and Kwale received significant rainfall amounts during the month. Vegetation condition The drought early warning system managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) assesses the severity of drought and its impact through the use of a combination of biophysical data, remote-sensed vegetation condition records, and social-economic data to determine the drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) communicates the state of vegetation cover, comparing it with the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as of 28th September 2020 are summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas received above-average rainfall during the 2020 March to May long rains season and as a result, vegetation greenness in the ASAL region is currently in the above normal ranges for the period. However, in Kwale County, the county VCI in September deteriorated slightly dropping to the normal vegetation greenness band with one sub-county Lunga Lunga recording moderate vegetation deficit. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as of 28th September 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Turkana Kitui Kajiado Makueni Baringo Kilifi Tana River Samburu West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Kwale Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late September 2019 with that in late September 2020. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is remarkably above September 2019 and long term average VCI values. The vegetation greenness index in most counties for the last nine consecutive months has been above normal ranges which is attributed to the impact of the above average cumulative rains received during the October - November - December (OND) 2019 and March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall seasons. 4 P a g e Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2019 and September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 Livestock production Availability of good pasture and browse continued to positively impact on livestock productivity. In September, livestock body condition for most species was good with slight variations across the counties. In all areas, animals recorded better body condition currently compared to the similar period in previous years which was attributed to the positive impact of the long rains season on forage regeneration. Pasture and browse condition As a result of the above normal March to May rainfall, the state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 2. However, Mandera, Meru and Tana River reported a deterioration pasture quantity and quality. For instance, in Mandera County 57 percent of the 210 households interviewed reported that pasture and browse condition was poor while 43 percent reported pasture and browse condition as fair. The deterioration in pasture situation was attributed to reduced regeneration owing to the prevailing dry condition and heavy grazing pressure due to the large increase in livestock numbers. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2020 Pasture Browse Mandera Tana River Embu, Garissa Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Wajir Baringo, Kilifi Marsabit, Isiolo Kajiado, Lamu Narok, Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Embu, Garissa, Nyeri Isiolo, Kajiado, Wajir Turkana, Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Baringo, Kilifi Lamu, Narok Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot 4 P a g e Livestock body condition In September livestock body condition for all species was generally good except in few counties like Tana River, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Nyeri, and Lamu where fair livestock body condition was observed as illustrated in Table 2. The slight decline in livestock body condition was attributed to the gradual degeneration of forage as the typical dry spell ensued. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2020 Cattle Goats Garissa Nyeri Tana River Turkana Kilifi Wajir Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Baringo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Marsabit Garissa Nyeri Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Isiolo Makueni Mandera Kitui Samburu Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Baringo Kilifi Wajir Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Milk production reduced considerably across counties during the month under review. For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day dropped by a margin of 43 percent to 0.8 litres in September from 1.4 litres in August while household milk production per day in Wajir reduced by 29 percent from 2.1 litres in August to 1.5 litres in September. Similarly, in Kajiado County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 25 percent from 4 litres in August to 3 litres in September. The observed drop in milk production was attributed to dry conditions and the associated general decline in availability of water, pasture and browse in most ASAL counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Isiolo Mandera Narok Tana River Samburu Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Turkana Baringo Garissa Laikipia Tharaka Kwale Makueni Wajir Kilifi West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Mandera Tana River West Pokot Samburu, Nyeri Wajir, Kilifi Kitui, Kajiado Lamu, Makueni Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Cattle prices In majority of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are above the three-year average price for the month of September as shown Table 5. For example, in Wajir, Kajiado, Makueni, Garissa, Kilifi, and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 48, 47, 25, 23, and 21 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices was attributed to 4 P a g e the improved cattle body condition. However, in Turkana County, the price of cattle was lower than the long term average price for the same month by nine percent which could be attributed to the deteriorating cattle body condition occasioned by declining pasture availability. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo, (Mbeere), Makueni, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita Taveta, Tana River, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Samburu Kitui Turkana Makueni Mandera Samburu Baringo, West Pokot, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Tana River, Kitui, Marsabit, Nyeri Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Laikipia, Kwale Narok Tharaka Wajir Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trends in goat prices in September 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, nearly all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Isiolo, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Mandera, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River, West Pokot Makueni Marsabit Taita Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Tana River Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado, Laikipia, Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Marsabit, Samburu Kilifi Garissa Kwale Meru, Narok Tharaka Turkana Mandera For example, in Kajiado County, the average price of Kshs 5,390 recorded in September for a 2- year old medium size goat was 59 percent higher than the three-year average of Kshs 3,390. In Samburu, the average price for a medium size goat of Kshs 3,420 was above the 2015-2019 average by 26 percent while in Baringo the average price of a goat stood at Kshs 3,406 which was above the LTA by 11 percent. Similarly, in West Pokot, the county reported an average price of Kshs 4,525 for a 2-year old goat which was 12 percent above the long term average price for September. Crop production Land preparation is ongoing in nearly all the marginal agricultural counties as households prepare for the start of the October to December short rains. Currently there were no crops on the farms apart from crops grown under irrigation such as kales, cabbages and tomatoes. Maize prices In about 65 percent of the ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable in September. In addition, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 20 counties recording prices that are close to or below LTA. For example, in Meru (Meru North), Lamu, West Pokot, Kilifi, Baringo 4 P a g e and Narok current prices are below LTA by 21, 19, 18, 14, 11 and 9 percent respectively. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to harvesting and hence availability of maize at household level and increase in maize supply in most markets. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in September 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Kwale Mandera Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Laikipia Isiolo, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Tana River West Pokot Kilifi Narok Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir Baringo, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Kajiado Kwale Access to water for households The trends in distances walked by households to access water is illustrated in Table 8. Generally, the domestic water situation in most counties declined slightly but largely remained better when compared with similar periods. In 12 ASAL counties, the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of August. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Marsabit, Kwale, Mandera, Kilifi, Lamu and Nyeri. In Kwale, for instance, average household distance to watering sources increased by 46 percent from 2.4 km in August to 3.5 km in September. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased to 5.2 km from 4.1 km in August, rising by 28 percent. Likewise, in Turkana County, distance to water sources from the household increased by 22 percent to 5.6 km from 4.6 km recorded in August, while in Mandera return distances to the main water points for households increased by 21 percent from 9.8 km in August to 11.9 km in September. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources was as result of drying up of some open water sources such as traditional wells, ponds, shallow wells, water pans and dams. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Garissa Kwale Marsabit Nyeri Kajiado Makueni Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir Kitui, Isiolo, Embu Baringo, Meru, Narok Mandera, Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Kajiado West Pokot Taita Taveta Kitui, Embu Samburu Laikipia Tharaka Baringo Garissa Isiolo Wajir, Nyeri, Meru Makueni, Narok Turkana, Lamu Marsabit, Kwale Mandera, Kilifi Tana River 4 P a g e Access to water for livestock Table 9 displays the current status and trends in the distance walked by livestock in search of water. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased or remained stable in all counties except in Tharaka and Embu. The worsening trend was attributed to the drying up of open water sources occasioned by the dry conditions experienced during the month under review. However, in 15 counties, access to water for livestock was better in September compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Kwale Nyeri Baringo, Narok, Isiolo Taita Taveta, Kajiado Embu, Wajir, Kitui Marsabit, Samburu Garissa, Mandera Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Taita Taveta West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Kwale, Wajir, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Narok Mandera, Samburu Marsabit, Makueni Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado Tana River Terms of trade Terms of trade (ToT) is an indirect means of measuring purchasing power for households who mainly depend on markets for food. Therefore, each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilogrammes of maize that can be exchanged for one goat. In September 2020, the terms of trade were favourable in nearly all the ASAL counties with the current ToT in 22 counties remaining above the LTA as shown in Table 10. The favourable terms of trade across the counties is credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below average maize prices. Among the arid counties, the highest terms of trade was recorded in Marsabit County where households could purchase 88 kg of maize from the sale of one average-sized goat compared to the LTA for September of 68 kg. Garissa County recorded the lowest terms of trade at 50 kg which was still above the LTA of 30 kg. 4 P a g e Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2020 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Tana River Kwale West Pokot Makueni Wajir Samburu Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Mandera Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Tharaka Isiolo Baringo Narok Laikipia Garissa Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Baringo Kwale Kilifi Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Makueni Turkana Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Health and nutrition In several arid counties, the proportion of children who are moderately and severely malnourished increased slightly in September when compared to the previous month which could partially be attributed to reducing milk consumption as well as poor dietary intake. For instance, In Isiolo County, 4.2 and 7.0 percent of children were severely malnourished and moderately malnourished respectively. Similarly in Turkana County, 2.2 percent of children had moderate malnutrition while 0.6 percent were severely malnourished. On the other hand in Baringo County, as a result of the availability of milk at the household level and enhanced household income from higher livestock prices, the nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age remained stable of which 86.7 percent of the sampled children were properly nourished while 9.2 and 1.1 percent had moderate and severe malnutrition respectively. Drought phase classification The Kenyan drought management system uses five drought early warning phases categorized as normal, alert, alarm, emergency and recovery. Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties lie within the expected ranges for the time of the year and hence are classified in the normal drought stage. On the other hand, four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, as would be expected towards the end of the dry season. Basically, as at the end of September, 12 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 11 counties recorded a stable trend. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, September 2020 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Narok Embu (Mbeere) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Tana River Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Kwale Meru (Meru North) Alert Marsabit Mandera Garissa Wajir Alarm 4 P a g e Projected food security situation According to the forecast for the October-November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season, it is projected that several parts of Kenya will experience depressed rainfall that will be poorly distributed both in time and space. The below-average rainfall is expected to support modest recharge of water sources and short-lived pasture regeneration which is likely to result in a gradual deterioration in livestock productivity across ASAL counties. It is also anticipated that in most pastoral areas livestock migration is likely to start earlier than usual hence reducing household milk access and increasing chances of resource-based conflicts and spread of livestock diseases. In the marginal agricultural areas, the below normal rainfall is expected to lead to poor crop performance. Furthermore, the expected decrease in cropping activities and demand for agricultural wage labour will likely result in below-average household income from casual labour and crop sales. Recommendations Up scaling provision of food assistance and cash transfers to vulnerable households. Livestock disease surveillance across counties. Promote hay harvesting and conservation. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists. Repair of broken down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. 4 P a g e Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug 2020 VCI-3 month as at 28th Sept Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 98.09 96.55 Off season rains received during the June to September period have improved the vegetation greenness substantially hence vegetation greenness has remained above normal in all parts of the county. Central 88.95 88.01 Eldama 85.56 83.39 Mogotio 97.22 97.02 North 94.19 92.66 South 88.83 89.98 Tiaty 98.09 104.49 MANDERA County 95.49 94.20 All sub counties maintained above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 85.70 85.29 M. East 88.26 86.00 Lafey 103.1 100.58 M. North 96.99 99.51 M. South 96.12 93.86 M. West 95.56 91.23 TURKANA County 91.05 91.13 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. T. Central 105.12 101.28 T. East 86.63 80.71 T. Loima 99.48 105.14 T. North 78.99 77.06 T. South 98.83 100.63 T. West 95.23 99.54 MARSABIT County 68.87 69.01 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 73.62 71.29 Moyale 62.73 68.32 N. Horr 67.08 67.13 81.41 83.03 WAJIR County 62.51 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal with slight deterioration in Wajir South. W. East 69.12 70.57 W. Eldas 62.74 60.66 W. North 83.88 78.79 W. South 47.84 49.63 W. Tarbaj 81.72 78.72 W. West 54.35 58.98 4 P a g e ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug 2020 VCI-3 month as at 28th Sept Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 82.46 79.66 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. S. East 81.76 81.86 S. North 82.33 75.37 S. West 86.15 85.63 GARISSA County 64.81 63.08 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 93.45 89.90 Daadab 66.62 63.43 60.41 56.76 Ijara 51.68 53.62 Lagdera 69.15 70.65 Dujis 72.18 69.00 ISIOLO County 65.47 76.59 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. North 65.00 76.31 I. South 66.18 77.02 RIVER County 78.77 76.93 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. 95.63 90.63 Galole 71.80 72.08 Garsen 68.82 68.34 KAJIADO County 91.10 95.59 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 77.98 80.70 K. East 80.29 86.21 K. North 66.55 K. South 87.85 96.10 K. West 106.36 108.43 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.86 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. East 83.79 78.22 L. North 93.52 89.84 L. West 89.25 88.81 THARAKA NITHI County 68.49 66.17 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 78.63 71.45 Maara 78.38 70.50 Tharaka 61.51 62.80 POKOT County 85.81 87.86 As a result of the cumulative effect of the off season rainfall received during the period from June to September, the vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kacheliba 86.63 91.28 Kapenguria 88.74 90.14 Pokot South 69.77 73.01 Sigor 88.66 88.50 4 P a g e ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug VCI-3 month as at 28th Sept 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 74.08 66.22 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 78.17 72.48 Mbeere North 74.25 70.51 Mbeere South 72.27 60.69 Runyenjes 75.81 66.22 KITUI County 97.13 96.50 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 106.41 111.79 Kitui East 108.47 106.97 Mwingi Central 99.41 97.86 Mwingi North 76.84 78.64 Mwingi West 95.13 97.66 Kitui Rural 112.85 117.13 Kitui South 97.09 94.86 Kitui West 109.24 112.84 MAKUENI County 96.09 99.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 96.51 93.19 Kibwezi East 88.92 94.48 Kibwezi West 89.93 95.73 Kilome 87.28 88.10 Makueni 105.17 107.87 Mbooni 118.95 121.71 County 80.57 82.38 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 81.81 84.90 Central Imenti 80.63 73.28 Igembe Central 95.13 Igembe North 72.74 78.09 Igembe South 81.64 82.40 North Imenti 89.34 84.15 South Imenti 81.25 75.60 Tigania East 75.57 79.35 Tigania West 82.86 85.32 4 P a g e ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 31st Aug VCI-3 month as at 28th Sept 2020 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit NYERI County 82.84 78.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.85 83.28 Mathira 82.22 75.18 Mukurweini 78.82 69.15 86.89 82.52 Othaya 74.16 65.68 76.65 74.78 KILIFI County 58.72 53.25 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band with slight deterioration (normal vegetation greenness) observed in 3 sub counties: Kaloleni, Rabai and Kilifi South. Ganze 58.75 51.63 Kaloleni 56.01 46.06 Magarini 58.72 54.67 Malindi 63.43 60.01 Kilifi-North 58.52 55.29 Rabai 59.89 45.52 Kilifi-South 43.68 KWALE County 46.51 37.88 The county VCI in September is within normal ranges. However, Lunga Lunga sub county is currently experiencing a moderate vegetation deficit. Kinango 38.32 Lungalunga 40.52 29.27 Matuga 56.27 47.78 Msambweni 55.27 48.73 County 59.38 61.34 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 65.63 65.48 Lamu West 55.77 58.94 TAITA TAVETA County 85.96 86.49 The vegetation greenness is above normal across all the sub counties. Mwatate 87.68 88.73 Taveta 87.68 92.49 82.61 81.54 Wundanyi 110.8 107.37 NAROK County 79.18 80.52 Vegetation greenness above normal. Narok-East 81.22 81.24 Emurua Dikirr 68.32 77.31 Kilgoris 67.52 71.00 Narok-North 77.16 74.27 Narok-South 84.28 84.57 Narok-West 80.83 84.32 4 P a g e Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies 4 P a g e Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2021": {
            "February_2021.pdf": "February 2021 Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall The month of January marked the onset of the dry season. As a result, most ASAL counties experienced sunny, hot and dry weather conditions for most of January 2021 which is usual for this time of the year. Figure 1 shows the total amount of rainfall recorded in January 2021. Overall, rainfall performance in most parts of the country was depressed with most ASAL counties recording rainfall amounts that were below 50 mm. During the month, higher than average daytime temperatures were recorded over the entire ASAL region. The higher than average daytime temperatures led to raised rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in the open water reservoirs and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams, water pans, and moisture stresswilting in pasture and crops. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance: January 2021 Rainfall Totals Vegetation condition Figure 2 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2020 with that in January 2021. The maps show that in most ASAL counties, the current condition of vegetation is worse when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average which is attributed to the below average rains received during the October to December 2020 rainfall season. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2020 and January 2021 As of 25th January 2021, four ASAL counties namely; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Wajir were classified in the moderate vegetation deficit class; a total of 15 ASAL counties (Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot) had above normal vegetation condition, while 4 counties (Garissa, Samburu, Tana River and Kilifi) were in the normal vegetation greenness category. Currently 2 sub counties Eldas and Wajir West in Wajir County are experiencing severe vegetation deficit while 15 sub counties spread in 6 counties are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. These includes: i) Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South and Mandera West); ii) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Wajir South and Tarbaj); iii) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr); iv) Garissa (Balambala, Dujis); v) Isiolo (Isiolo North); and vi) Tana River (Bura) are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. Indicating that in these areas, the rainfall received during the OND season did not increase the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently lower compared to last month due to reduction in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. However, most counties reported that the quantity and Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2021 quality of pasture and browse was declining. The deteriorating trend was mainly as a result of the below average performance of the October to December rainfall. On the other hand, other factors also limited pasture and browse access. For instance, in Isiolo County, insecurity along Isiolo - Garissa, Isiolo - Wajir and Isiolo - Laikipia border hindered access to pasture and browse. In addition, other factors limiting pasture access include; increase in invasive plant species, inadequate water in the wet grazing areas, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Kinna and Sericho Wards and ticks and tsetse fly infestation in Garbatulla and Kinna Ward. Similarly, in Mandera County, pasture access was constrained by insecurity and poor water availability especially in Mandera West, Banisa. Lafey and Kutulo sub-counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2021 Pasture Browse Isiolo Mandera Wajir Baringo Kajiado Garissa Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Meru North Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Meru North Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all livestock species was good to fair across all the ASAL counties as illustrated in Table 2. However, in Turkana County, livestock body condition was generally fair and on a deteriorating trend in the Fisheries Livelihood Zone (Kalimapus and Nachukui) and the Pastoral Zone (Kalapata, Lokichar and some parts of Kanamkemer Ward). Likewise, fair to poor livestock body condition was observed in the Pastoral Livelihood Zones of Mandera and Tana River counties and in some pockets of North Horr and Laisamis Sub County of Marsabit County. The poor livestock body condition was attributed to rapid depletion of forage due to below average 2020 Short rains and long trekking distance in search of water and forage. It is anticipated that the livestock body condition for all livestock categories would deteriorate further as the rangeland conditions worsen due to the projected above normal surface temperature between February and early April when the long rains are expected. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2021 Cattle Goats Baringo Kitui Mandera Narok Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Meru North Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kitui Mandera Narok Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Meru North Samburu Taita Taveta Milk production Most ASAL counties registered a reduction in milk production during the month under review (Table 3). For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 43 percent to 1.3 litres in January from 2.3 litres in December while household milk production per day in Samburu dropped by 15 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.7 litres in January. In Wajir, average milk production per household per day decreased by 10 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.8 litres in January. At the same time, average milk production per household per day was below LTA in Kwale, Turkana, Marsabit, Kajiado and Wajir by 37, 36, 28, 26 and 23 percent respectively. The decrease in milk production was attributed to below normal performance of the OND rains which resulted to poor regeneration of forage and low recharge of water sources, increase in trekking distances covered by livestock in search of water and pasture and declining livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Kitui Samburu Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Nyeri Baringo Kwale Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Laikipia Mandera Tana River Baringo Kilifi Marsabit Wajir Garissa Samburu West Pokot Nyeri Cattle prices In about 80 percent of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of January as shown in Table 4. For instance, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 53, 46, 45, 34, 20 and 17 percent respectively. The favourable cattle prices was attributed to the generally good body condition of cattle in most counties. However, in Turkana County, the average price of a medium sized bull decreased by 7 percent from Kshs 15,170 in December to Kshs 14,095 in January and was lower than the three-year average price of cattle for January by 17 percent. The decline in cattle prices in Turkana was mainly attributed to the deteriorating body condition of cattle occasioned by elongated trekking distances in search of pasture. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo, Makueni Isiolo, Lamu, Kajiado Kilifi, Wajir, Kitui Narok, Tana River Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu, Meru, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Garissa Mandera Nyeri Turkana Garissa Mandera Tharaka Nithi Makueni Turkana Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Nyeri Isiolo West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of Janury goat prices in nearly all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA except in Turkana and Kwale counties. The below normal goat prices in the two counties was ascribed to worsening body condition driven by poor availability of pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Garissa Kajiado Lamu Samburu Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Embu Kilifi Narok Isiolo Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Mandera Baringo Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Turkana Kwale Tana river Kajiado Taita Taveta Kilifi Marsabit Samburu Garissa Mandera Turkana Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Makueni Narok Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Kwale Crop production The average acreage under maize in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kilifi, Narok, Meru (Meru North), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Tharaka was 15 - 20 percent below average due to the forecasted below average 2020 October- November-December (OND) rainfall season and limited access to inputs such as certified seed and fertilizer. Harvesting of pulses like green grams, beans and cowpeas was ongoing while most of the cereal crops such as millet, sorghum and maize were at the grain filling and the drying stage of development with harvesting expected to start from mid-February. In the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone in Makueni County, maize had wilted in most pockets in Makindu and Nguu ward in Kibwezi West, Masongaleni in Kibwezi East and in Kilome Sub Counties. The poor state of the maize crop was as a result of the delayed onset of the OND rains and the long dry spells experienced in December. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in January (Table 6). Stabilization in price across counties was as a result of the continued flow of maize from markets in the country coupled with the cross-border imports from Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. Overall, the current maize prices are largely below average with 19 out of the 23 ASAL counties recording prices below LTA. For example, in Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Laikipia and Kitui current prices are lower than LTA by 23, 22, 15, 14 and 13 percent respectively. The below average to average maize prices were attributed to good harvest from previous seasons and sustained supply of stock from neighboring counties and cross-border imports. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2021 Access to water In about 40 percent of the ASAL counties, distances to water sources have increased compared to the month of December. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Mandera, Kwale, Tana River, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit and Isiolo. In Mandera, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased from 10.5 km in December to 14.4 km in January. In Tana River, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Kwale Mandera Marsabit Baringo Kajiado Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo West Pokot Kilifi Tana River Turkana Kitui Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Samburu Meru Embu Kajiado Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Makueni Kwale Nyeri Tana River Lamu Marsabit Kilifi current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.4 km in December to 5.7 km, rising by 68 percent while in Marsabit distance to water sources from the household increased by 18 percent to 9.1 km from 7.7 km recorded in December. The increase in distances to water sources was largely attributed to drying of open water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Meru north Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Garissa Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Meru North Samburu Tana River West Pokot The trend in the distances trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas increased in 10 ASAL. In addition, access to water for livestock was to some extent more challenging in January compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA). For instance, in Mandera County, the average distance for livestock increased by 35 percent to 14.9 km in January from 11 km in December which is also above the long term mean of 8 km by 86 percent. Similarly in Samburu distances to livestock watering points from grazing areas increased considerably by a proportion of 47 percent from 7.6 km in December to 11.2 km in January while in Isiolo average distances walked by livestock increased by 21 percent from 11.2 to 13.6 km. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to drying of water pans and dams largely because most of the surface water sources were not fully recharged during the short rains season. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources Isiolo Kwale Makueni Mandera Narok Wajir Baringo Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Garissa Kajiado Marsabit Meru North Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Meru North Narok West Pokot Nyeri Samburu Tana River Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In January 2021, terms of trade in all counties remained favourable, implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. For example, terms of trade were favourable in Marsabit Tana River, Isiolo, Mandera and Samburu counties as households were able to buy more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat compared to the long term average. In Marsabit county, medium sized goat was exchanged with 84 kg of maize against the long-term average of 74 kg. Likewise, households in Tana River were able to buy 105 kg of maize from the sale of a medium sized goat compared to the long term average of 64 kg. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to the prevailing above average goat prices which were driven by good body condition and high demand while maize prices had remained stable during the October 2020 and January 2021 period. Table 9.0: Terms of trade (ToT), January 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Samburu Wajir Embu Lamu Nyeri Makueni Mandera Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Tana River West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Marsabit Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Kwale Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Baringo Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Health and nutrition The analysis of MUAC data in different ASAL counties showed mixed trends. For example, the proportion of children 6-59 months with MUAC less than 125 mm was on a downward trend from July 2020 to January 2021 in Garissa (Figure 3) while in Wajir the proportion was on an upward trajectory in the months to January 2021, indicating a worsening situation. drivers acute malnutrition in the Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir are food insecurity, human diseases, poor infant and young child feeding practices. Marsabit had 10.50 percent while Samburu had above 25 percent of children who were malnourished. According to mother MUAC results in Turkana, the proportion of malnourished children based on mid upper arm circumference (colour MUAC) was 6.1 percent. This is a deterioration from 3.5 percent recorded earlier, an indicative deterioration of household food stress across the OND season following the poor performance of the short rains. The high malnutrition rates are possibly influenced by poor child maternal care practices coupled with poor health care seeking behaviour attributed to fear of COVID-19. Kitui, (Mbeere), Makueni, Meru (Meru North) and Tharaka, the proportion of children aged 6-59 months with MUAC less than 125 mm reduced between November 2020 and January 2021 (Figure indication improvement general nutrition situation. It is projected that the situation will remain stable between March and April 2021. 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana river Wajir Prcent at risk Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Figure 3: Proportion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Propotion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Figure 4: Proportion of children 6-59 with MUAC 125mm Drought phase classification Table 10 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. Although majority of the counties are still in the normal drought phase, compared to the situation in December the drought status in most ASAL counties deteriorated in January. Currently the drought status is categorized as follows: Normal, 16 counties; Alert, 7 counties. In terms of trend, the situation is as follows: Worsening in 15 counties; Stable in 6 counties; Improving in 2 counties. The declining trend is attributed to the poor rainfall performance observed during the October- November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season in the affected areas. In addition the sunny, dry and hot weather conditions that prevailed over most parts of the country in January 2021 also worsened the situation because the higher than average daytime temperatures experienced in many ASAL counties led to high rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in open water sources and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams and water pans, and wilting in pasture and crops. Table 10.0: Drought phase classification, January 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kwale Kajiado, Makueni, (Meru North), Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Garissa, Lamu, Tana River Samburu, West Pokot, Kitui, Laikipia, Nyeri (Kieni) Alert Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Turkana Alarm Emergency Recovery Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting food insecure households. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists in preparation for the MAM season. Repair of broken-down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continuous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th January 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Dec 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th Jan 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 83.07 67.76 In the month of January, the entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness, the situation is stable compared to the previous month of November. However, there is decline trend in VCI index attributed to gradual caseation on OND short rain season Central 86.61 75.99 Eldama 77.55 69.55 Mogotio 86.27 North 85.49 South 75.29 59.81 Tiaty 84.88 68.88 MANDERA County 44.15 32.03 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month of January compared to the previous month of December. The situation is deteriorating at alarming rate with Mandera East already in Moderate vegetation deficit Banissa 52.51 36.58 M East 31.54 21.01 Lafey 35.68 25.14 M North 36.12 M South 42.76 33.01 M West 45.52 32.88 TURKANA County 81.57 61.81 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of December except for Turkana East. T Central 67.32 57.61 T. East 61.39 48.38 T. Loima 87.37 68.31 T. North 55.28 T. South 75.87 61.56 T. West 106.12 78.32 MARSABIT County 37.11 28.15 The county and its sub counties showed a deteriorating VCI condition from the normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in the month of January compared with the previous month of Deecember. Saku sub county deteriorated to normal from the previous above normal. Laisaimis 41.72 29.77 Moyale 30.59 N. Horr 34.38 25.43 50.52 49.85 WAJIR County 32.44 28.02 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit. Serious worsening and rapid decrease in VCI condition across the county and all sub counties in the month under review. Wajir Eldas and Wajir West are worst as it stands at extreme vegetation deficit. W East 39.96 34.74 W.Eldas 17.11 W. North 45.68 34.99 W. South 33.54 32.67 W.Tarbaj 38.39 W West 14.05 10.99 SAMBURU County 57.84 45.54 S East 51.62 39.04 The entire county and its sub counties deteriorated to normal from above normal vegetation greenness .Samburu west remained above normal. S. North 60.78 49.01 S. West 73.25 60.26 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Dec 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th Jan 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 41.82 38.47 The county is in Normal vegetation greenness. The situation is expected to deteriorate in the coming month. Balambala recorded a moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the month of December. Balambala 38.81 34.76 Daadab 39.09 35.56 40.88 39.22 Ijara 49.29 45.21 Lagdera 40.88 35.11 Dujis 32.44 27.58 ISIOLO County 35.11 29.17 Major decrease in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. January showed a decrease when compared to the previous month of December. This is attributed to the early cessation of the OND rains. I. North 29.88 22.56 I. South 39.27 RIVER County 43.41 39.56 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness condition. This situation is worsening in January as compared to last month of December. 31.54 29.17 Galole 44.11 39.24 Garsen 53.05 48.59 KAJIADO County 57.08 50.08 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado central and West recorded normal vegetation. K. Central 47.85 K. East 56.62 54.74 K. North 62.27 63.22 K. South 63.81 59.73 K. West 54.45 41.19 LAIKIPIA County 66.31 54.39 The county and its sub counties remained stable thus above normal vegetation greenness. This condition is expected to worsen as Laikipia east recorded normal. L. East 52.85 43.15 L. North 67.79 55.49 L. West 70.02 57.77 THARAKA NITHI County 50.41 59.07 The county is in normal vegetation greenness. The situation is improving when compared to the previous month of December. Tharaka has showed an improvement in the when this month is compared to last month of December. Chuka 63.93 72.88 Maara 65.31 73.45 Tharaka 40.55 49.27 POKOT County 82.13 66.79 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. The situation is in stable condition when the previous month of December is considered. The attribution factor is steady and continuous rainfall performance in this region. Kacheliba 78.23 61.56 Kapenguria 84.49 69.92 Pokot South 72.28 Sigor 87.49 70.43 County 60.11 70.48 Manyatta 61.45 70.48 Improvement in vegetation condition in the month of January across all the sub- counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. When compared to the month of December. This is due to late onset of rainfall in this area hence prolonged time as well. Mbeere North 65.51 Mbeere South 60.75 70.36 Runyenjes 66.98 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Dec 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th Jan 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 44.04 52.16 The county is improving in normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi Central has also improved to above normal from moderate vegetation deficit when months of January and December are compared. Kitui Central 59.63 70.41 Kitui East 43.24 52.22 Mwingi Central 32.01 44.07 Mwingi North 37.28 42.33 Mwingi West 50.05 61.49 Kitui Rural 55.93 65.52 Kitui South 54.63 Kitui West 65.15 MAKUENI County 61.71 71.86 There has been a significant stability with the county above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kaiti 76.16 86.87 Kibwezi East 57.58 73.11 Kibwezi West 60.41 71.31 Kilome 65.76 71.31 Makueni 59.43 65.41 Mbooni 68.33 76.05 County 62.04 63.03 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Tigania West. The entire county has a stable vegetation greenness when the previous month of December is compared with the current month of January. Buuri 65.67 68.07 Central Imenti 61.55 66.04 Igembe Central 65.64 Igembe North 67.01 58.47 Igembe South 63.82 63.98 North Imenti 52.23 58.44 South Imenti 65.91 73.37 Tigania East 50.35 50.24 Tigania West 45.26 57.63 NYERI County 68.17 72.65 The county is in a stable state when vegetation greenness is compared between the months of December and January. All the sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness condition and that there has been imminent improvement between the two months. Kieni 66.75 Mathira 65.92 74.43 Mukurweini 75.85 80.35 71.05 83.63 Othaya 72.18 84.93 70.75 KILIFI County 50.19 45.65 Improvement in vegetation condition across all the county with vegetation greenness above normal parts of the county. Ganze 48.11 47.95 Kaloleni 56.57 Magarini 47.96 42.61 Malindi 61.45 50.01 Kilifi-North 64.15 55.15 Rabai 62.89 55.03 Kilifi-South 42.52 39.46 KWALE County 57.14 64.28 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is a big improvement when month under review is compared to the previous month of December. Kinango 55.02 61.91 Lungalunga 60.06 68.29 Matuga 61.46 67.06 Msambweni 57.19 67.06 County 50.61 Positive Stability in both county and sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness condition. The situation improved in terms of VCI index due to performance of OND rains. Lamu east has slightly deteriorated to normal. Lamu East 61.71 50.63 Lamu West 59.15 49.89 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Dec 2020 VCI-3 month as at 25th Jan 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 53.89 64.17 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition in the above normal to normal category from Normal vegetation greenness recorded in the previous month of December. The situation could be due to good OND rainfall performance Mwatate 60.05 Taveta 57.33 59.84 53.02 66.12 Wundanyi 61.68 76.64 NAROK County 70.83 67.88 Stability in the vegetation greenness was noted across the county and its entire sub-counties. The situation could be stable due to good rainfall performance within the entire county and the continuity period is still good. Narok-East 61.79 52.98 Emurua Dikirr 92.71 93.19 Kilgoris 83.93 82.41 Narok-North 69.41 Narok-South 62.05 56.41 Narok-West 76.87 75.33 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "March_2021.pdf": "March 2021 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Onset October-November- December (OND) 2020 occurred around mid-October and currently nearly all the ASAL counties limited or no rainfall at all. The delayed onset of this years long rain season season performance so far suggests that most ASAL areas will probably experience near normal rainfall. Consequently, it is anticipated that the 2021 March to May short rains are likely to impact positively on both livestock and crop production. The condition of pasture and browse in many ASAL areas has remained fair to poor some extent following the last short rains of 2020. Pasture and browse regeneration are expected to blossom as some parts of the country are already experiencing onset of MAM rainy season and is projected to reach the normal ranges in terms of quantity and quality by end of May or early June. Water availability is steadily worsening or remaining stable with most of the existing open water sources such as dams, rock catchments and water pans now absolutely dry and approximately 10 percent capacity. Access to water for households and livestock remains stable worsens since distances to watering points has increased significantly across all counties. As a result, livestock body condition and milk production worsen or remains stable. Although key drought indicators in a number of counties have not yet returned to normal, significant improvement has been observed in most of the counties with the trend improving and stable in 14 and 9 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 counties in normal, seven in alert, one in recovery and three in alarm, compared with eight in normal, seven in alert and eight in the alarm drought phase in September. Drought phase classification, February 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Kwale Makueni Nyeri West-Pokot Alert Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Tana-River Wajir Alarm Marsabit Mandera Turkana Emergency Recovery Drought status Drought indicators Rainfall The start of the October-November-December (OND) 2020 seasonal rains was timely over several ASAL areas with some counties such as Marsabit, Mandera Wajir, Kitui, Taita Taveta and Makueni where onset was slightly earlier than expected. The rainfall was characterized by heavy storms and were also fairly well distributed, both in time and space. Most ASAL counties experienced one of the wettest October on record since 1981 with the cumulative rainfall amounts received in most counties exceeding 200 percent of their October long term average (LTA). In Samburu, for example, the county received rainfall totals that were above the long-term average (LTA) by 162 percent. In the first, second and third dekad, Makueni County received 29.3 mm, 23.4 mm and 57.2 mm compared with LTA of 6.7 mm, 8.6 mm and 13.5 mm respectively. Currently, the ASAL counties have not received the 2021 long rains as based on KMD predictions, the rains are likely to begin in the 3rd week of march and 1st week of April. Vegetation condition The condition of vegetation continues to deteriorate in almost all ASAL counties which is attributed to the limited rains received in short rain season of 2020. The situation has extended and much anticipated long rains onset has delayed. The negative trends observed in many areas point to a poor regeneration of pasture during the month of February. Moreover, in Wajir (West and East), VCI values are still indicating severe vegetation deficit since the rains received so far have not increased the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Figure 1 illustrates the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. Detailed VCI values for February are presented in Annex 1. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 Water sources The water situation has significantly dwindled across the ASAL counties as a dry-up of the impounded water during the short rains of last year. The main water sources during the month, both for domestic and livestock use were pans and dams, shallow wells, boreholes and rivers. Households also reported using piped water and roof catchment system as water sources during the reporting period. Water levels have improved since most surface water sources were recharged to over 70 percent of their normal capacity. For instance, In Marsabit County, 100 percent of open water sources in Moyale and Saku sub-counties are recharged while only 45 percent of open water sources in North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties have been recharged. In Turkana the open water sources including pans and rock catchments are recharged to over 75 percent capacity across the three livelihood zones with the normal flow characterized by moderate volume resuming in all the seasonal rivers. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently not better compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The depreciation in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the last short rain season and this could not sustain water requirements of pasture and browse hitherto. The delayed onset of this years long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Pasture Browse Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Tana-River Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Taita-Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Turkana Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Narok Taita-Taveta Livestock body condition As a result of decrease in forage and water availability body condition for livestock has started decreasing after early cessation of short rains of 2020 as illustrated in Table 2. Most of counties livestock body condition were in fair category. In Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties, the goats were in poor category in the month of March. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Taita-Taveta Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Taita-Taveta Milk production Milk production is generally on a stable trend across counties during the month under review. However, there are decreasing trends being noted, for example, in Kilifi County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 27 percent to 2.7 litres in March from 3.7 litres in February while household milk production per day in Lamu rose by 42 percent from 2.4 litres in February to 3.4 litres in March. General decreasing trend in milk production was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition due to significant increase in trekking distances in search of water and forage by livestock. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Makueni Narok Samburu West-Pokot Isiolo Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Garissa Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three- year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Lamu the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 61 respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Indicat Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu Turkana Makueni Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Mandera Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Wajir West-Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of March, goat prices in most ASAL areas were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, West Pokot and Turkana counties where they were below the three-year average price due to below average forage and poor body condition owing to the poorly performed last year OND rains. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Agricultural activities undertaken during the month of October in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North and Nyeri (Kieni) include land preparation, planting and weeding. In most of these counties the area planted is above normal, which is mainly driven by county government support to farmers with tractors. The condition of the crops is generally good and overall the on-going rains are expected to impact crop production positively this season. Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Isiolo Samburu Wajir Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Turkana Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. Moreover, the current maize prices are largely at average with about 60 percent of the counties recording prices atclose LTA. For example, in Nyeri, Kitui, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Baringo and Turkana current prices are atclose LTA. Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru and Nyeri counties have a worsening trend. The increase in maize prices in Lamu is attributed to diminishing stocks of maize at household level and a slight decrease in maize supply in most markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Return distances to water for households have generally increased in nearly all ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the dwindling water points around due to poorly performed short rains of 2020. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Garissa Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Tana River Nithi Kajiado Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kitui Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Tana River West-Pokot Isiolo Tana River Wajir West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kwale Nyeri The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Average return distances to water for livestock increased in February following the dwindling of water points due to poor short rains of 2020. In all ASAL counties, except Tana river access to water for livestock was in a worsening trend. Only Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit counties are in improving trend Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Laikipia Narok Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Marsabit Narok Laikipia Makueni Tana River Nithi Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilograms of cereal that can be exchanged for one goat. Table 9 summarizes the movements on the previous month and the trend. In almost 70 percent of the counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 3 counties; Turkana, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Nyeri the ToT are showing a below average. Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Samburu and Turkana counties are showing a worsening trend. The unfavourable terms of trade are attributed to the fact that the price of goats had declined while the price of maize had increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Tana River Turkana West-Pokot Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties isstable and worsening with close to 90 percent of the counties currently on either an worsening or stabilizing trend. For example, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition rise in February compared with January by 200, 85 and 62 percent in Samburu, Kitui and Makueni respectively. The stabilizing and worsening trend was attributed to decrease in milk consumption and impact of ongoing health and nutrition interventions. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Marsabit Tana river Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Taita-Taveta Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Wajir Garissa Kitui Kajiado Narok Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Nithi Laikipia Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Tana river Wajir West pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The key drought indicators in a number of counties have not yet returned to normal, as a result, significant deterioration has been observed in most of the counties with the trend in worsening and stable in 16 and 7 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 counties in normal, seven in alert, none in recovery and two in alarm compared to 12 counties in normal, eight in alert, none in recovery and three in alarm in the previous month. Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kajiado Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Baringo Kitui Kwale Makueni Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Alert Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Tana River Wajir Alarm Marsabit Mandera Turkana Recovery Projected food security situation Based on the February 19th weather forecast by Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), episodes of MAM rainfall onset may occur in 4th week of march to 1st week of April in most of the Arid counties and 3rd to 4th week of march for semi-arid counties. The cumulative rainfall amounts are expected to be normal as the long-term average received during the same period. Overall, despite some negative impacts from flash floods, the enhanced rainfall is expected to support regeneration of both pasture and browse; and improve water availability and access which is likely to result in increased livestock productivity in the ASAL counties. Good crop performance is expected across the ASAL region which is likely to exhibit improved crop production in the marginal agricultural counties. Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scale up of cash transfer targeting households currently food insecure as a result of the recent drought and those affected by floods. Awareness raising and support to households living in flood prone areas to move to safer groundsarea to avoid loss of lives and destruction of property. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Provision of seeds and farm tools to households in the marginal agricultural and agro- pastoral areas affected by floods. Continue sensitization on, scouting for and monitoring of fall armyworm infestation in order to avert crop losses. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Enhance hygiene promotion and provision of water treatment chemicals to control waterborne diseases. Intensify peace building initiatives to advocate for peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th March 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light showers from the MAM rainfall season onset Central 60.27 45.08 Eldama 56.38 44.04 Mogotio 35.66 North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 53.32 44.72 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 24.44 21.08 M East 20.34 Lafey 20.25 21.13 M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal vegetation greenness. T Central 62.38 74.84 T. East 42.15 40.69 T. Loima 62.81 65.62 T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- climate within Saku hills. Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 Moyale 21.78 25.38 N. Horr 25.43 32.39 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W East 25.89 W. Eldas 16.47 W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 26.49 27.87 S. North 44.53 S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. Balambala 26.47 23.19 Daadab 28.59 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 Lagdera 22.52 Dujis 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the previous severe vegetation deficit band. I. North 18.42 23.25 I. South 28.83 23.76 RIVER County 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. 25.41 Galole 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. Central 53.26 K. East 55.51 K. North K. South 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as compared to the previous month. L. East 30.78 34.76 L. North 41.02 39.39 L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA NITHI County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 70.67 68.33 Maara 72.88 72.56 Tharaka 45.39 35.91 POKOT County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 Kapenguri 58.76 51.68 above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal vegetation greenness. Pokot South 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 79.68 Mbeere North 63.82 59.32 Mbeere South 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 69.98 62.32 Kitui East 54.45 44.71 Mwingi Central 39.76 Mwingi North 37.76 Mwingi 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 MAKUENI County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous months are compared. Kaiti 81.45 Kibwezi 78.08 70.11 Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 61.82 Mbooni 75.49 County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Buuri 56.18 60.64 Central Imenti 62.79 East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central 52.09 Igembe North 44.78 38.79 Igembe South 50.92 42.35 North Imenti 59.74 60.29 South Imenti 74.87 76.63 Tigania 45.26 46.35 Tigania 61.45 57.24 NYERI County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of February. Kieni 61.51 61.56 Mathira 78.41 78.47 Mukurwein 81.23 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 76.69 83.49 KILIFI County Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Ganze 40.09 26.03 Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Magarini 37.95 33.52 Malindi 37.95 31.19 North 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 South 28.65 23.04 KWALE County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is a stability when the month under review is compared to the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Kinango 55.81 Lungalung 61.71 54.78 Matuga 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu East 34.72 Lamu West 39.77 38.66 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Mwatate 62.72 Taveta 59.61 58.36 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 NAROK County 67.91 71.51 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 51.75 60.99 Emurua Dikirr 87.31 82.44 Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 North 64.25 59.17 South 59.72 69.43 77.06 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms",
            "April_2021.pdf": "April 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March- April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of March, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Kajiado, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Lamu receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in March as shown in Figure 1. The distribution of rainfall in time and space was generally poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance; Percent of March LTA Vegetation condition Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of March 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 As at the end of March 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River and Samburu. The seven counties experienced moderate Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in March 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at 29th March 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Wajir West and Eldas in Wajir County recorded the lowest VCI values with the two sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in March 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of March. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe vegetation deficit Wajir West Eldas (Wajir) Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu Wajir Mandera Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Tana River Normal vegetation greenness Laikipia Kilifi Vegetation greenness above normal West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni Narok Turkana Kwale Baringo Kajiado Kitui Tharaka Nithi Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poorer compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances walked by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The reduction in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory growth of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Turkana Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has slightly declined compared to last month due to the increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair and poor as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Taita Taveta Milk production In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in seven counties is above LTA while in twelve counties which includes: Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 3. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Makueni Narok Samburu West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Garissa Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 70 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Narok the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 42 percent respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Marsabit Kwale Mandera Samburu Turkana Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Kwale Mandera Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot, Kwale and Nyeri where they were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Embu, Meru Narok, Garissa, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Kajiado, Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Samburu Wajir Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana West Pokot Kwale Isiolo, Kajiado, Embu Wajir, Narok, Meru, West Pokot, Kilifi Samburu, Garissa Laikipia Makueni, Nyeri Mandera, Kitui Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River Marsabit Turkana Baringo Crop production Land preparation and planting for the March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below- average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 15 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. However, Tana River, Isiolo, West Pokot and Wajir reported a worsening trend. For instance in Tana River County the average price for a kilogram of maize increased by 7 percent from Kshs 43 in February to Kshs 46 in March which was attributed to decrease in maize supply in markets due to below average seasonal harvests. Similarly, an uptrend in maize prices was reported in West Pokot as a result of diminishing maize stocks at household level and a decrease in maize supply in markets such as Chepareria, Sigor and Makutano. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Access to water for households Average distances to water for households increased in March in more counties than they were reducing. For instance, household distances reduced in only five counties, remained the same as the previous month in 8 counties and increased in 10 counties. At the same time, return distances to water for households are above the long term average in 14 ASAL counties. In Turkana County for example, average distances to water sources by households increased significantly by 43 percent from 8.3 km in February to 11.9 km in March. Likewise, in Samburu, access to water for domestic use increased by 30 percent compared with last month as households had to walk an average of 9.2 km to water points in March compared with 7.1 km in February. The increase in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the drying up of surface water sources due to the poor performance of the October to December short rains of 2020 and the delayed onset of the MAM season. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Garissa Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock Maize Prices Garissa Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kitui Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Tana River West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Tana River Isiolo Wajir The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit. In addition, access to water for livestock was more challenging in March compared with normal times in most ASAL counties as the average trekking distances from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock recorded in March 2021 was above the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA) in 14 counties. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and drying up of water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Marsabit Narok Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but five counties ToT values are above the long term average (LTA). For instance, in Laikipia, Tana River, West Pokot, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 44, 31, 26, 22 and 17 percent respectively. The relatively favourable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices had remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavourable in Kwale, Turkana, Nyeri, Mandera and Marsabit counties where the current ToT were lower than the long term average for March by 35, 14, 12, 8 and 6 respectively. The poor terms of trade were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana West Pokot Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties is stable and worsening with 21 out of 23 counties currently on either a worsening (5) or stable (16) trend. In the month of March, counties with malnutrition rates above LTA include: Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Baringo, Lamu, and Meru. The observed negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavourable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. In Marsabit, Turkana, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River increase in malnutrition cases was also associated with the reduction in the number of integrated health outreaches which has impacted negatively on the delivery of health and nutrition services. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Baringo Mandera Marsabit Tana River Kwale Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kitui Kajiado Narok Turkana Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Lamu Kwale, Meru, Nyeri Garissa, Isiolo Makueni, Mandera Narok, Samburu Laikipia, Kajiado Baringo, Embu Kilifi Tana River West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Wajir Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while seven (7) counties namely Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi, and Samburu are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend with seven (7) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), West Pokot Baringo, Makueni, Kwale Meru (Meru North) Alert Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu Tana River, Kilifi, Samburu Alarm Marsabit Mandera Turkana Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th March 2020 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light showers from the MAM rainfall season onset Central 60.27 45.08 Eldama 56.38 44.04 Mogotio 35.66 North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 53.32 44.72 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 24.44 21.08 M East 20.34 Lafey 20.25 21.13 M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal vegetation greenness. T Central 62.38 74.84 T. East 42.15 40.69 T. Loima 62.81 65.62 T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- climate within Saku hills. Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 Moyale 21.78 25.38 N. Horr 25.43 32.39 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W East 25.89 W. Eldas 16.47 W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 26.49 27.87 S. North 44.53 S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. Balambala 26.47 23.19 Daadab 28.59 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 Lagdera 22.52 Dujis 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the previous severe vegetation deficit band. I. North 18.42 23.25 I. South 28.83 23.76 RIVER County 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. 25.41 Galole 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. Central 53.26 K. East 55.51 K. North K. South 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as compared to the previous month. L. East 30.78 34.76 L. North 41.02 39.39 L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA NITHI County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 70.67 68.33 Maara 72.88 72.56 Tharaka 45.39 35.91 POKOT County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 Kapenguri 58.76 51.68 above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal vegetation greenness. Pokot South 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 79.68 Mbeere North 63.82 59.32 Mbeere South 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 69.98 62.32 Kitui East 54.45 44.71 Mwingi Central 39.76 Mwingi North 37.76 Mwingi 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 MAKUENI County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous months are compared. Kaiti 81.45 Kibwezi 78.08 70.11 Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 61.82 Mbooni 75.49 County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Buuri 56.18 60.64 Central Imenti 62.79 East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central 52.09 Igembe North 44.78 38.79 Igembe South 50.92 42.35 North Imenti 59.74 60.29 South Imenti 74.87 76.63 Tigania 45.26 46.35 Tigania 61.45 57.24 NYERI County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of February. Kieni 61.51 61.56 Mathira 78.41 78.47 Mukurwein 81.23 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 76.69 83.49 KILIFI County Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Ganze 40.09 26.03 Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Magarini 37.95 33.52 Malindi 37.95 31.19 North 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 South 28.65 23.04 KWALE County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is a stability when the month under review is compared to the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Kinango 55.81 Lungalung 61.71 54.78 Matuga 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu East 34.72 Lamu West 39.77 38.66 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 22nd Feb 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Mar 2021 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Mwatate 62.72 Taveta 59.61 58.36 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 NAROK County 67.91 71.51 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 51.75 60.99 Emurua Dikirr 87.31 82.44 Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 North 64.25 59.17 South 59.72 69.43 77.06 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "May_2021.pdf": "May 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of April, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana river, Kilifi, Lamu, Laikipia and Nyeri (Kieni) receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in April. Some parts of Mandera and Taita taveta received slightly above normal rains of between 75-100 percent of average amounts as shown in Figure 1.Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), rainfall is expected to continue during the month of May 2021.Counties in North-western Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive rainfall characterized with near to slightly above average rainfall. Occasional rainfall is likely to occur during the second half of the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region. North-eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will receive Occasional rainfall that is expected at the beginning of May. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to cessation period. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the month of May. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season ceases. The rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the month of May. The Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average. May marks the peak of the Long rains season in the Coastal Strip. Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya (Nyeri, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi): Above average rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. However occasional dry spells are likely especially during the second half of the forecast period. The rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for the region. Figure Rainfall performance as percentage of normal. Figure 1.Rainfall forecast for May 2021 Vegetation condition Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2020 with that in April 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of April 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 and April 2021 As at the end of April 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and Kilifi. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in April 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of April 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi south in Kilifi County recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in April 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of April. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe vegetation deficit Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi Wajir Garissa Isiolo Mogotio(Baringo) Banissa, East, LafeyNorth (Mandera),Laisaimis N. Horr(Marsabit) East,Eldas,South West(Wajir) East(Samburu) Balambala,Daadab,Fafi,Lagdera Dujis (Garissa) North South(Isiolo) Bura Galoleni (Tana River) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April Mandera Marsabit Tana River Mwingi central,Mingi North,Mwingi South(Kitui) Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North Rabai (Kilifi) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Laikipia Kwale Samburu Central Elda maravine, South, North Tiaty (Baringo) South, West (Mandera) East North (Turkana) Moyale Saku(Marsabit) North Tarbaj(Wajir) North South(Samburu) Ijara(Garissa) Garsaen(Tana River) East,North West(Laikipia) Tharaka(Tharaka Nithi) Kacheliba Sigor(West Pokot) East Rural(Kitui) Igembe Central, Igembe North Igembe South, Tigania East Tigania West(Meru) Kinango Lungalunga(Kwale) East West(Lamu) Voi(T.Taveta) Vegetation greenness above normal Nyeri Meru North Taita Taveta Narok Makueni Nyeri(Kieni) Kajiado. (49)Central, Loima, South West (Turkana) Central,East, North,South West(Kajiado) Chulga Maara(Tharaka Nithi) Kapenguria Pokot south(West pokot) Manyatta, Mbeere south Runyenjes(Embu) Central(Kitui) Kaiti,Kibwezi East,Kibwezi West Kilome,Makueni Mbooni(Makueni) Buuri, Central Imenti,North Imenti South Imenti(Meru) Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Town, Othaya Tetu(Nyeri)Matuga, Msambweni(Kwale)MwatateTaveta(Taita Taveta) East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North, South West (Narok) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poor compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The current pasture and browse condition were attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory regeneration of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains and depressed rains received so far is another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Wajir West-Pokot Turkana Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui. Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi. Marsabit West-Pokot Turkana Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Tana-River Wajir Kajiado Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to last month due to the long trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor and fair as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, April 2021 Cattle Goats Kilifi Mandera Wajir Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Kajiado Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kilifi Wajir Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok Samburu Tana-River West-Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Tana-River West-Pokot Milk production In comparison to the long-term average; current milk production in six counties is above LTA while in eight counties which includes: Baringo, Kajiado, Isiolo, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 3.0. Table 3.0: Milk production, April 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improvi Stable Worsening Productio Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Pokot Garissa Kitui Mandera Samburu River Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Makueni Mandera Samburu Taveta Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Nyeri Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of April in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Marsabit cattle prices decreased by 27 and 5 percent as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, April 2021 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Kitui Makueni Marsabit Samburu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Narok Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West-Pokot Turkana Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of April , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Marsabit, Baringo and Mandera that were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, April 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas and most crops planted are at germination stage in poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Samburu Wajir Baringo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Turkana Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in April as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 16 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, April 2021 Access to water for households Average distances to water for households slightly reduced in April in more counties as compared to the previous month. For instance, household distances improved in 14 counties while five counties recorded long trekking distances as compared to normal. Counties like Turkana and Isiolo recorded slight improvement as compared to previous month however the distances are still above long-term average. The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the light showers received during the month of April 2020 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the long trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worseni Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Maize Prices Garissa Kwale Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kitui Makueni Nyeri Samburu Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok River Pokot Narok Nyeri Tana river Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Nithi Turkana Wajir Distance households to main water sources Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Baringo Garissa Kwale Marsabit Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Kilifi Mandera Narok River Taveta Kitui River Tharaka Nithi Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Narok West-Pokot Turkana Baringo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Nithi Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly improved in all counties except in Kajiado and Laikipia. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the short rains of October, November, December (OND) and depressed rains received during the month of April 2021 as shown in Table 8.0. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana pokot Makuen River Kilifi Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Narok Turkana West-Pokot Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but three counties ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Narok, Tana River ,Embu, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo ,the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 40, 34, 35 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Kwale, Nyeri and Mandera counties where the current ToT were lower than the long-term average for March by 19, 17, and 6 percent respectively. The poor terms of trade in the three counties were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, April 2021 Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu River Tharaka Garissa Taita Taveta Kwale Mandera Nyeri Garissa Kitui Makueni Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Narok Taita Taveta River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in 6 ASAL counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru and Nyeri is stable while the following (9) counties, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Tharaka-Nithi are improving as compared to the previous month however 5 counties including Garissa,Mandera,Embu,Lamu and Taita taveta MUAC trend is above the long term avarage.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavorable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Mandera Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Nithi Baringo Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir West pokot Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Garissa Narok Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir pokot Nithi Wajir Pokot Kitui Nithi Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while ten (10) counties namely Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River, Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Samburu, Laikipia and Wajir are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported a worsening trend with nine (9) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kwale Alert Garissa Kilifi, Tana River Wajir Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Kitui Samburu Alarm Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 42.00 40.09 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of April. This is attributed to some light showers from the MAM rainfall season onset. However, Mogotio sub county has moderate vegetation deficit. Central 45.08 40.81 Eldama 44.04 43.51 Mogotio 35.66 North 39.58 36.17 South 39.51 41.17 Tiaty 44.72 41.17 MANDER County 23.87 34.28 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the month of April. Notably, Mandera south and Mandera West have Normal vegetation greenness. The onset of MAM rainfall is already experienced in the two sub-counties. Banissa 21.08 29.89 M East 20.34 Lafey 21.13 29.26 M North 23.89 32.93 M South 28.86 42.67 M West 23.61 36.88 TURKAN County 49.23 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of April. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 74.84 67.75 T. East 40.69 37.97 T. Loima 65.62 60.58 T. North 40.66 T. South 55.47 55.79 T. West 59.45 56.96 MARSABI County 31.72 33.75 The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small Laisaimis 32.26 Moyale 25.38 37.68 N. Horr 32.39 34.15 43.32 36.44 warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. WAJIR County 24.86 30.97 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir Eldas and Wajir West improving from Severe vegetation deficit to Moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir north and Wajir Tarbaj improved from Moderate to Normal vegetation deficit. W East 33.46 W. Eldas 16.47 26.08 W. North 31.18 42.99 W. South 26.85 W. Tarbaj 26.17 36.17 W West 15.58 21.38 SAMBUR County 36.34 36.21 The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to last month of March. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 27.87 27.91 S. North 44.53 43.82 S. West 42.58 43.79 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Apr 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 28.27 29.29 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. However, Ijara subcounty showed improvement in its VCI index within its band. Balambala 23.19 22.73 Daadab 25.25 29.56 29.61 Ijara 42.25 Lagdera 22.52 21.71 Dujis 21.77 ISIOLO County 23.45 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit in the month of April. I. North 23.25 24.72 I. South 23.76 21.52 RIVER County 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of April. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. 25.41 25.02 Galole 33.19 31.92 Garsen 40.01 38.22 KAJIADO County 68.25 70.95 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of April. Kajiado county according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March. K. Central 73.43 K. East 67.64 K. North 67.45 K. South 64.47 K. West 70.29 75.72 LAIKIPIA County 38.69 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia East improving from moderate vegetation deficit in March to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of April. L. East 34.76 L. North 39.39 L. West 39.65 THARAK NITHI County 50.01 47.49 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of March. Tharaka subcounty remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 68.33 66.65 Maara 72.56 72.58 Tharaka 35.91 32.25 POKOT County 42.85 The vegetation greenness stabilized for both the county and its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous above normal. Pokot South improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness, while Kapenguria remained in above normal vegetation greenness Kacheliba 38.24 Kapenguri 51.68 51.73 Pokot South 46.25 51.11 Sigor 41.78 42.47 County 68.82 65.05 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of April across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 79.61 Mbeere North 59.32 58.06 Mbeere South 66.41 Runyenjes 84.68 82.66 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 41.59 34.29 The county and most of its sub counties deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness condition. These sub-counties include; Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West and Kitui South recorded moderate deficit.. Kitui East and Kitui Rural remained at normal vegetation deficit while Kitui central was stable at above normal vegetation condition. Kitui Central 62.32 54.01 Kitui East 44.71 37.42 Mwingi Central 39.76 Mwingi North 24.82 Mwingi 59.16 24.82 Kitui Rural 48.08 37.76 Kitui South 40.05 32.51 Kitui West 64.71 51.02 MAKUEN County 70.39 59.42 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous month of March are compared. Kaiti 81.45 73.55 Kibwezi 70.11 73.55 Kibwezi 71.43 73.55 Kilome 73.02 68.47 Makueni 61.82 52.94 Mbooni 75.49 62.73 County 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south, Tigania East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 60.64 61.61 Central Imenti 66.82 Igembe Central 43.31 Igembe North 38.79 35.39 Igembe South 42.35 46.67 North Imenti 60.29 67.68 South Imenti 76.63 78.71 Tigania 46.35 48.48 Tigania 57.24 48.48 NYERI County 71.21 74.98 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of March. Kieni 61.56 68.12 Mathira 78.47 75.48 Mukurwei 87.55 86.18 84.46 Othaya 86.47 83.49 83.49 KILIFI County 27.05 Deterioration in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South are in severe vegetation deficit category during the month under review. Ganze 26.03 17.55 Kaloleni 27.69 19.84 Magarini 33.52 31.73 Malindi 31.19 28.56 North 37.54 32.61 Rabai 25.81 South 23.04 17.24 KWALE County 51.29 43.08 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is decline when the month under review is compared to the previous month of March. Matuga and Msambweni sub counties remained at above normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 36.67 Lungalung 54.78 36.67 Matuga 64.76 53.92 Msambwe 64.34 55.43 County 37.22 42.21 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 34.72 42.21 38.66 40.82 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 58.03 52.06 Mwatate 60.29 Taveta 58.36 56.86 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Voi subcounty remains in normal vegetation greenness. 55.12 46.48 Wundanyi 71.94 65.83 NAROK County 71.51 72.41 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both space and time 60.99 65.99 Emurua Dikirr 82.44 80.12 Kilgoris 77.78 75.33 North 59.17 61.22 South 69.43 73.38 77.83 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "June_2021.pdf": "June 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May 2021 marks the cessation of the Long- Rains over most parts of the country except for the western and Coastal regions according to Kenya Metrological Department. During the month of May 2021, most ASAL counties received over 70 percent of average rainfall except Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Taita taveta and Tana River that received between 25-50 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of May as shown in Figure 1. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1 indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean(LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional rainfall expected from the third week of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for June. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall that is expected throughout the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for June. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional light morning rainsdrizzles. The expected rainfall amount are likely to be near the long term average for the month of June while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the central highlands. Figure 1.May Rainfall Performance Figure 2.Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2020 with that in May 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of May 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2020 and May 2021 As at the end of May 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Samburu and Kilifi. The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in May 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of May 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Rabai, Kilifi south (Kilifi County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in May 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of May 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe vegetation deficit Lagdera (Garissa), Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Moderate vegetation deficit Marsabit Isiolo Garissa Tana river Samburu Kilifi Marsabit (Laisaimis, Saku and North Horr), Wajir (W. South, W. Eldas and W. West), Samburu East, Garissa (Balambala, Dujis, Fafi and Daadab), Isiolo (I. North and I. South), Tana River (Bura, Galole and Garsen), Laikipia North, Kitui rural, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini and Malindi) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Wajir Baringo (B. North, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, B. South, B. North and Tiaty), Mandera (Banissa, M. East, Lafey, M. North, M. South and M. West), Turkana (T. East and T. North), Marsabit (Moyale), Wajir (W. East, W. North, W. Tarbaj), Samburu (S. South and S. West), Garissa (Ijara), Laikipia (L. East, L. west), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Kitui (K. East, K. South, K. West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North , Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi West, Makueni), Meru (Igembe North, Tigania East), Kilifi North, Kwale (Kinango, Matuga), Lamu west and Voi. Vegetation greenness above normal Kajiado Makueni Narok Taita taveta Nyeri (Kieni) Meru (North) Turkana West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Turkana (T. Central, T. South, T. West and Loima), Kajiado (K. Central, K. East, K. North, K. South, K. West) Tharaka Nithi (Chulga and Maara), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South and Runyenjes), Kitui Central, Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kilome and Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti and Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya and Tetu), Kwale (Lungalunga, Msambweni), Lamu East, Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta and Wundanyi), Narok (N. East, N. West, N. North, N. South, Kilgoris and Emurua Dikirr) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair compared to normal period. The condition is as result of slight improvement in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with decrease in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to current fair water recharge. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to good conditions except in Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Wajir and Garissa that reported poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition has slightly improved as compared to the previous month due to the fair amount of rainfall received during the month of May 2020. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Kajiado Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on improving trend as compared to previous month due to improvement in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Garissa and Marsabit reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production is stable as compared to the previous month however Fourteen (14) counties including;Baringo,Garissa,kajiado,kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Marsabit,Meru,Nyeri,Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Isiolo and Wajir have milk production below LTA while six(6) counties including Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Mandera Samburu Tana River Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Garissa Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition has improved as compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5.The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of May in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Turkana counties recorded cattle price decrease by 23 and 19 percent respectively as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2021 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Isiolo Marsabit Taita Taveta River Mandera Nyeri Turkana Wajir Mandera Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marasabit Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have slightly increased as compared to the previous month due to improving livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and most crops planted are tusslingknee high stage with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Kilifi and Kitui counties have reported poor crop condition.The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in May as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Nyeri,Taita taveta,Wajir and Isiolo have maize prices above LTA. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Nyeri Wajir Garissa Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Baringo Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2021 Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 18 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA .In comparison with the previous month, there is slight improvement in reduction of distance to household water source.The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the rains received during the month of May 2021 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Maize Prices Garissa Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot River Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improvin Stable Worseni Distance households to main water sources Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West pokot Isiolo Baringo Wajir Kitui Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi river Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and improving across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources BaringoIsi oloIII GarissaI Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Kajiado Marsabi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Pokot Isiolo Kitui Samburu Baringo Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Mandera Kajiado Narok Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Nyeri(kieni), ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Tana River, the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for May by 56, 40, 52, 36 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri(Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for May by 33 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has remained stable and on improving trend however the following counties namely; Mandera,Tana River,Marsabit Turkana and have MUAC above long term average.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu River Turkana Wajir Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta River Pokot Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Baringo Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Wajir pokot Kitui Kajiado Taita taveta Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Garissa Narok Samburu Wajir West pokot Tana River Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2021 On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Eleven (11) counties; Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui ,Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase and thus twelve(12) counties including; Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, Four (4) counties reported improving trend, Twelve (12) counties recorded stable trend while seven (7) counties reported a worsening trend. The slight improvement is as result of the rains received during the month of May 2021 Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Alert Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kitui Samburu Tana River Isiolo Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 40.09 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. This is attributed the ongoing MAM rainfall. Interestingly, Mogotio subcounty has improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness. Central 40.81 43.91 Eldama 43.51 49.44 Mogotio 38.31 North 36.17 49.57 South 41.17 46.43 Tiaty 41.17 MANDERA County 34.28 49.57 The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. There was absolute improvement in the entire county form Severe vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness due to ongoing MAM rainfall. Banissa 29.89 49.93 M East 35.55 Lafey 29.26 42.47 M North 32.93 52.16 M South 42.67 53.05 M West 36.88 52.96 TURKANA County 49.23 51.82 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 67.75 57.36 T. East 37.97 38.79 T. Loima 60.58 61.91 T. North 41.86 T. South 55.79 58.83 T. West 56.96 62.52 MARSABIT County 33.75 32.57 The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. Laisaimis 25.01 Moyale 37.68 48.59 N. Horr 34.15 32.79 36.44 32.01 WAJIR County 30.97 36.66 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May from the previous month of April. W East 33.46 40.39 W. Eldas 26.08 32.13 W. North 42.99 49.81 W. South W. Tarbaj 36.17 W West 21.38 29.86 SAMBURU County 36.21 33.83 The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to last month of April. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 27.91 27.57 S. North 43.82 38.93 S. West 43.79 41.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 29.29 32.02 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 22.73 23.56 Daadab 25.25 28.78 29.61 33.41 Ijara 42.25 49.93 Lagdera 21.71 15.89 Dujis 24.98 ISIOLO County 23.45 22.67 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub- counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit in the month of May. I. North 24.72 24.45 I. South 21.52 20.00 TANA RIVER County 29.94 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of May. Garsen worsened Moderate vegetation condition. 25.02 28.89 Galole 31.92 24.34 Garsen 38.22 34.33 KAJIADO County 70.95 63.43 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of May. K. Central 73.43 62.17 K. East 67.64 62.59 K. North 67.45 61.66 K. South 57.22 K. West 75.72 69.58 LAIKIPIA County 38.69 36.48 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North declining from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in April to month of May. L. East 45.03 L. North 32.31 L. West 40.16 THARAKA NITHI County 47.49 57.05 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of April. Tharaka subcounty remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 66.65 66.97 Maara 72.58 69.81 Tharaka 32.25 49.31 WEST POKOT County 50.93 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous above normal. Pokot South improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba Kapenguria 51.73 58.28 Pokot South 51.11 64.22 Sigor 42.47 49.11 County 65.05 64.33 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of April across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 79.61 64.57 Mbeere North 58.06 65.56 Mbeere South Runyenjes 82.66 70.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 34.29 39.49 The county and most of its sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness condition from moderate vegetation deficit in the previous month of April. Kitui Central 54.01 51.04 Kitui East 37.42 42.87 Mwingi Central 38.22 Mwingi North 24.82 36.51 Mwingi West 24.82 44.04 Kitui Rural 37.76 30.43 Kitui South 32.51 Kitui West 64.71 42.68 MAKUENI County 59.42 51.44 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous month of April and current month of May are compared. Kaiti 73.55 71.55 Kibwezi East 73.55 Kibwezi West 73.55 42.32 Kilome 68.47 68.13 Makueni 52.94 43.85 Mbooni 62.73 60.63 County 56.62 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub- counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 61.61 57.08 Central Imenti 66.82 65.95 Igembe Central 43.31 57.91 Igembe North 35.39 37.73 Igembe South 46.67 66.37 North Imenti 67.68 70.22 South Imenti 78.71 Tigania East 48.48 46.76 Tigania West 48.48 57.84 NYERI County 74.98 68.99 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of April. Kieni 68.12 63.64 Mathira 75.48 68.72 Mukurweini 87.55 75.43 84.46 78.56 Othaya 81.71 83.49 74.77 KILIFI County 27.05 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit Ganze and Kaloleni improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened. Ganze 17.55 21.49 Kaloleni 19.84 21.55 Magarini 31.73 29.89 Malindi 28.56 28.85 Kilifi-North 32.61 40.11 Rabai 25.81 17.21 Kilifi-South 17.24 10.86 KWALE County 43.08 42.55 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is an improvement when the month under review is compared to the previous month of April. Kinango 36.67 37.17 Lungalunga 36.67 Matuga 53.92 43.63 Msambweni 55.43 51.81 County 42.21 45.31 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 42.21 51.19 Lamu West 40.82 41.91 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th VCI-3 month as at 30th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above Apr 2021 May 2021 normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 52.06 50.42 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Voi subcounty remains in normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 60.29 61.12 Taveta 56.86 58.76 46.48 42.31 Wundanyi 65.83 67.91 NAROK County 72.41 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both space and time Narok-East 65.99 64.52 Emurua Dikirr 80.12 70.98 Kilgoris 75.33 64.15 Narok-North 61.22 61.21 Narok-South 73.38 71.71 Narok-West 77.83 68.68 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "July_2021.pdf": "July 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of June 2021 marked the beginning of the cold season with several parts of ASAL counties remaining dry. According to metrological department, most of ASAL counties received less than 50 percent of average rainfall with most parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Tana River and Turkana receiving less than 25 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of June as shown in Figure 1a.The coastal strip received over 75 percent of average amounts. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1a indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean (LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of July 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive occasional rainfall during the beginning of the month and near average rainfall towards the end of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near to above the long term average for July. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for July. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional rainsdrizzles while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the highlands east of the rift valley. Figure 1 a.June Rainfall Performance Figure 1b.Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2020 with that in June 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of June 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2020 and June 2021 As at the end of June 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Wajir and Kilifi.The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit except Isiolo that is in severe vegetation deficit band implying that the VCI values recorded in June 2021 were below normal indicating that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of June 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level; Kilifi South, Rabai (Kilifi), Isiolo North and Isiolo South (Isiolo County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with Kilifi two sub counties in extreme vegetation deficit band. Lagdera (Garissa) and Isiolo (Isiolo North and South) are in severe vegetation deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in June 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of June 2021.The vegetation condition has deteriorated as compared to the previous month of May 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2021 Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair and on declining trend as compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decline in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality and increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to drying open water sources. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor condition with Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Tana river, Laikipia and Kitui reporting poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Lagdera (Garissa), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Moderate vegetation deficit Marsabit Wajir Garissa Tana river Kilifi Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Dadaab, Township) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui Rural) Kwale (Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir south) Normal vegetation greenness Kitui, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Lamu, Kwale, Laikipia Wajir (Tarbaj Wajir-West Wajir-North Turkana (Turkana North, Turkana East) Meru (Tigania East, Igembe North) Taita taveta (Taveta, Voi) Marsabit (Moyale North Horr Saku) Mandera (Mandera South Mandera West, Lafey Mandera East) Makueni (Makueni, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Lamu (Lamu West) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West) Kwale (Lungalunga Matuga, Msambweni) Kitui (Kitui South, Kitui West, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Embu (Manyatta) Baringo (Mogotio) Vegetation greenness above normal Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South), Kajiado-West Kitui (Kitui-Central) Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West,) Makueni (Kilome, Mbooni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, South Imenti South Imenti, Tigania West) Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) Makueni (Kaiti) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tana River Wajir Embu Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Mandera Meru Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kajiado kwale Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on worsening trend as compared to previous month due to deterioration in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Lamu and Wajir reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2021 Cattle Goats Baringo Kwale Embu Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kwale Milk production Milk production is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as 11 counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, and Tana river are on worsening trend while twelve (12) counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Kwale have milk production below LTA. The following seven (7) counties including Embu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Mandera Samburu Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Wajir Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The cattle prices in Mandera, Nyeri, Turkana and Marsabit are below due to deteriorating body condition in those particular counties. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of June in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Lamu Meru Narok Samburu Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Nyeri Turkana Marsabit Narok Tana River Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Turkana Laikipia Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Marsabit,Makueni and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have remained stable as compared to the previous month due to fair state of livestock body condition however they remain low as compared to normal season. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season ended across the marginal agricultural areas and thus Kilifi,Makueni,Nyeri(Kieni),Taita taveta and Kwale reported fair crop condition as compared to good in normal season however Kitui reported that most of the crops withered due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Crops in marginal agricultural counties were at grain filling and harvesting stage. Farmers are expecting below average crop production due to depressed rains received. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in June as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Mandera,Marsabit ,Taita taveta,Wajir have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Kwale Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Mandera Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kwale Kitui Makueni Marsabit Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 20 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is increase in distance to household water source as result of the drying water sources.The late onset of the MAM rains coupled with poor performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Nyeri Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Baringo Tana River Garissa Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana Kwale Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is on worsening trend across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 17 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Wajir West Pokot Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Lamu Makueni Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana river Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Marsabit Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Makueni Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Turkana Kwale Mandera Tana River Kitui Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Narok Baringo Garissa Kilifi Mandera West Pokot Turkana Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Meru Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kwale Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Mandera and Nyeri(kieni),ToT values are above the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is however on worsening trend as compared to the previous month with ten(10) counties reporting worsening trend. The worsening trend is as result of increasing maize prices in relation to stable goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the MUAC is on worsening trend with eight(8) counties including kajiado,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Nyeri,Samburu,Tana River and Wajir recording worsening trend.The negative trend in malnutrition of the eight(8)counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River West Pokot Turkana Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Tana River Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kwale Mandera Narok West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of June 2021.On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Twelve (12) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui, Lamu, Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase while Eleven (11) counties reported Normal drought phase as at July. During the month under review, Fourteen (14) counties reported worsening trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while one county reported an improvement .The worsening trend across most of ASAL counties is as result of the poor rains received during the March April May (MAM) 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Alert Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Tana River Wajir Marsabit Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Activation of satellite livestock markets and commercial destocking to salvage pastoralists against imminent losses with expected progression of the long dry spell. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th June 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.49 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June except Mogotio which was at normal greenness. This is attributed the late cessation of MAM rainfall. Central 43.91 54.89 Eldama 49.44 58.38 Mogotio 38.31 North 49.57 60.67 South 46.43 54.27 Tiaty MANDERA County 49.57 50.26 The county and its sub counties are in Normal to above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June which is stable trend. Banissa 49.93 55.43 M East 35.55 43.98 Lafey 42.47 46.69 M North 52.16 58.28 M South 53.05 45.21 M West 52.96 48.94 TURKANA County 51.82 59.31 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 57.36 T. East 38.79 46.17 T. Loima 61.91 72.75 T. North 41.86 48.07 T. South 58.83 T. West 62.52 69.97 MARSABIT County 32.57 32.97 The county and one of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Moyale was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. North Horr and Saku wards improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 25.01 24.94 Moyale 48.59 41.93 N. Horr 32.79 35.09 32.01 35.25 WAJIR County 36.66 31.75 The situation worsens in the county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir North and Tarbaj maintained normal vegetation greenness. W East 40.39 34.75 W.Eldas 32.13 26.48 W. North 49.81 W. South W.Tarbaj W West 29.86 26.24 SAMBURU County 33.83 38.72 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to the previous month of May. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 27.57 28.66 S. North 38.93 48.33 S. West 41.81 46.59 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 32.02 29.37 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county improving from Normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty also remained at severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 23.56 22.92 Daadab 28.78 24.98 33.41 29.43 Ijara 49.93 50.58 Lagdera 15.89 12.17 Dujis 24.98 22.72 ISIOLO County 22.67 18.72 The entire county condition deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit following poor performance and early cessation of the MAM rains. I. North 24.45 19.77 I. South 20.00 17.13 RIVER County 29.94 27.48 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of June. 28.89 27.71 Galole 24.34 20.74 Garsen 34.33 31.49 KAJIADO County 63.43 58.69 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of June. K. Central 62.17 53.39 K. East 62.59 59.71 K. North 61.66 55.75 K. South 57.22 53.85 K. West 69.58 65.22 LAIKIPIA County 36.48 39.63 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 45.03 48.35 L. North 32.31 34.74 L. West 40.16 44.57 THARAKA NITHI County 57.05 62.68 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of May. Tharaka sub- county improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 66.97 65.65 Maara 69.81 Tharaka 49.31 61.13 POKOT County 50.93 56.87 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the county and all the sub-counties with Kacheliba and Sigor improving from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 53.22 Kapenguria 58.28 Pokot South 64.22 70.36 Sigor 49.11 53.32 County 64.33 57.06 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of June across most of the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal. Manyatta sub- county deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 64.57 48.55 Mbeere North 65.56 64.02 Mbeere South 55.41 Runyenjes 70.42 57.16 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 39.49 40.35 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at Above normal, normal vegetation greenness and moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 51.04 52.66 Kitui East 42.87 41.84 Mwingi Central 38.22 35.16 Mwingi North 36.51 38.66 Mwingi West 44.04 43.11 Kitui Rural 30.43 27.87 Kitui South 40.77 Kitui West 42.68 46.83 MAKUENI County 51.44 53.03 The county and most of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable for most parts when compared to the previous month of May. Kibwezi East worsened from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 71.55 63.88 Kibwezi East Kibwezi West 42.32 48.83 Kilome 68.13 67.72 Makueni 43.85 48.33 Mbooni 60.63 63.73 County 56.62 55.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Igembe North and Tigania East which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 57.08 Central Imenti 65.95 56.37 Igembe Central 57.91 66.04 Igembe North 37.73 40.98 Igembe South 66.37 70.47 North Imenti 70.22 57.12 South Imenti 68.27 Tigania East 46.76 39.28 Tigania West 57.84 53.22 NYERI County 68.99 65.65 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of May. Kieni 63.64 Mathira 68.72 59.21 Mukurweini 75.43 51.72 78.56 77.51 Othaya 81.71 79.14 74.77 63.77 KILIFI County 24.93 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze 21.49 22.94 Kaloleni 21.55 Magarini 29.89 25.84 Malindi 28.85 24.94 Kilifi-North 40.11 42.32 Rabai 17.21 Kilifi-South 10.86 KWALE County 42.55 38.57 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is stable when the month under review is compared to the previous month of May except Kinango which worsened from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Kinango 37.17 34.22 Lungalunga 48.88 Matuga 43.63 36.06 Msambweni 51.81 47.42 County 45.31 43.66 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 51.19 51.66 Lamu West 41.91 39.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 50.42 46.28 Decrease in the vegetation greenness condition from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Voi sub-county remains in normal vegetation greenness while the county worsened from above normal to normal greenness. Mwatate 61.12 57.24 Taveta 58.76 52.83 42.31 38.93 Wundanyi 67.91 62.86 NAROK County 65.09 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor is good MAM seasonal rainfall performance in this region. Narok-East 64.52 65.23 Emurua Dikirr 70.98 66.12 Kilgoris 64.15 56.73 Narok-North 61.21 63.82 Narok-South 71.71 Narok-West 68.68 64.18 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "August_2021.pdf": "AUGUST 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August, near to below average rainfall was recorded over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya including West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo and Narok, Samburu and Laikipia counties. Dry weather conditions were experienced over the Southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and most of the Northwestern Kenya. temperatures were above normal over most parts of the Arid and Semi-Arid counties of Kenya (ASALS). During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties that received between 6- 20mm of rainfall include; Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, Kajiado, Isiolo, Lamu and some part of Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui, Meru and Tharaka Nithi. Most of Arid counties that received TRACE rainfall amounts (2-5mm1mm) includes; Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. Figure 1 indicates spatial rainfall performance during the month of August as rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for September According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), It is expected that several parts of the country will be generally dry for most of the month of September. Almost all 23 ASAL counties are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional showers expected in the coastal strip. Near-Average to Above-Average rainfall is expected in some parts of Turkana, Kajiado, Narok and Laikipia. West Pokot and Baringo counties will be within Near-Average to Above- Average rainfall category. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for September. Figure 1.August Rainfall Performance Figure 2.Rainfall forecast, September 2021 Figure 1. Rainfall Performance, August 2021 Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir. The eight (8) counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Makueni, Narok, Turkana, Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West- Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is worsening compared to previous month of July. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Milk production Milk production in Baringo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported an improving trend whereas Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana and Wajir indicated a worsening trend when then month of August is compared with previous month of July. Embu Lamu, Makueni, Narok Samburu and West Pokot were above LTA while the Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir are below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Samburu Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. In eight out of the 23 ASAL counties the cattle prices are worsening with majority at stable and no single county displaying improvement as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Samburu Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Wajir Garissa Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties falling in below LTA category. The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Nyeri Wajir Turkana Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and minimal rain showers on June, most crops planted are struggling with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir have reported poor crop condition. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to have a negative impact on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, the farmers have been advocated to practice planting of fast maturing seedlings and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are stable in 18 counties,3 Counties Nyeri, Tharakaha ve shown a worsening trend .Garissa ,Isiolo, Kajiado ,Mandera ,Marsabit, Nyeri and Taita Taveta recorded prices that are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Garissa Tana River Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. The consecutive poorly performed long rains and short rains seasons of 2020 and 21 respectively is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance household s to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Pokot Isiolo Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Garissa, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri and Turkana, ToT values are above and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT maintains a stable trend as to the previous month. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri (Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for August by 40 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend, however the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Tana- River Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Wajir Pokot Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Nithi Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West- Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to be the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the minimal orand NO rains received during the month of August. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri(Kieni) Taita-Taveta Alert Embu(Mbeere) Meru-North Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana-River Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera Garissa Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 54.31 58.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which was at normal greenness. Central 60.01 60.94 Eldama 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 North 62.51 65.12 South 53.82 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. Banissa 44.29 M East 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County 53.23 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 T. East 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County 34.64 38.82 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County 27.22 23.78 The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W East 29.27 23.68 W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County 38.69 34.59 Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 28.61 26.54 S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.91 21.16 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Balambala 23.42 21.17 Daadab 20.85 15.29 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County 18.97 23.09 There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of July. I. North 19.76 23.94 I. South 17.76 21.79 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County 47.38 45.68 Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 39.23 32.92 K. East 43.33 41.26 K. North 45.34 K. South 44.21 48.55 K. West 56.34 52.74 LAIKIPIA County 38.05 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to Above Normal. L. East 44.73 36.94 L. North 33.18 30.25 L. West 43.95 51.75 THARAKA NITHI County 57.62 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous month of July. Chulga 61.51 50.79 Maara 60.97 46.02 Tharaka 55.08 42.92 POKOT County 51.38 53.13 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 49.12 50.65 Kapenguria Pokot South 63.51 61.87 Sigor 48.62 51.31 County 46.56 39.61 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 42.51 40.01 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North 53.27 44.86 Mbeere South 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26h VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 38.38 41.68 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 46.37 55.31 Kitui East 40.18 Mwingi Central 32.78 Mwingi North 33.77 27.38 Mwingi 35.43 32.64 Kitui Rural 27.82 Kitui South 41.41 48.56 Kitui West 40.64 41.97 MAKUENI County 44.07 50.46 The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 46.63 Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 Kilome 50.89 56.77 Makueni 39.66 46.16 Mbooni 47.38 County 51.44 44.27 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 53.76 44.15 Central Imenti 51.64 41.85 Igembe Central 60.23 51.11 Igembe North 40.35 38.06 Igembe South 62.33 53.55 North Imenti 51.43 52.32 South Imenti 64.16 Tigania East 34.12 39.66 Tigania 47.09 47.26 NYERI County 58.03 The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI values. Kieni 60.23 Mathira 49.32 42.09 Mukurweini 37.05 Othaya 64.44 37.32 48.76 45.06 KILIFI County 21.19 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Ganze 17.24 Kaloleni 17.95 15.23 Magarini 22.66 21.53 Malindi 24.84 19.41 Kilifi-North 45.34 39.54 Rabai 14.39 Kilifi-South 26.18 KWALE County 30.75 21.04 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango Kinango 26.02 16.93 sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration from the previous month of July. Lungalunga 40.55 Matuga 31.23 23.56 Msambweni 38.99 26.21 County 40.72 32.41 The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under review remained stable in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 50.82 51.31 Lamu West 34.87 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 35.47 43.47 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 40.58 42.58 Taveta 34.15 41.87 32.95 Wundanyi 59.94 NAROK County 59.24 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 57.64 49.59 Emurua Dikirr 62.69 64.54 Kilgoris 51.09 51.75 North 60.88 54.84 South 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "September_2021.pdf": "September 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties remained generally dry and rainfall received was below the long term average of August 2021.Most parts of ASAL counties including; Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kajiado, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Nyeri, Isiolo, Meru North and Taita Taveta received less than 20mm of rainfall totals except the highland areas of rift valley including Baringo, Laikipia , Samburu, Narok and West Pokot which received between 51-100 mm of total rainfall. Figure 1 indicates observed rainfall totals during the month of August 2021. Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will generally remain dry and sunny during the month of September 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. However, areas bordering Uganda and Southern Sudan are likely to experience occasional rainfall during the first two weeks of the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be slightly above the long-term average amounts for September. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be below the long-term average for the month of September. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions for most of the month. However, occasional afternoon showers and cloudy conditions in the mornings are likely, especially during the first three weeks. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for September while North Eastern Kenya and Southeastern Lowlands including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely are likely to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Figure 2.Rainfall forecast Figure 1.Rainfall performance Figure 2.August Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir.The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Makueni, Narok, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month even though pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Productio Makueni Narok Samburu West Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Pokot Garissa Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 52 percent of the ASAL counties as compared to 60 percent during the previous month as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Samburu Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Wajir Garissa Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas and thus late planted maize crops were in fair to poor condition with farm army worm infestation in counties like Kilifi while the harvested crops were below average as compared to expected production during normal season in marginal agriculture counties like Nyeri (Kieni), Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are aboveclose to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month.The increase has disadvantaged pastoralists terms of trade and thus need for close monitoring as the season progress especially in Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Marsabit ,Nyeri and Taita taveta counties. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Nyeri Wajir Turkana Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Marsabit Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties.80 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. The ToT maintains a stable trend compared to the previous month however it is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of deteriorating livestock body condition in relation to increase in maize price. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend with the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri having MUAC values above long term average. The remaining counties including Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Meru North,Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kwale and Laikipia were close to LTA.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Kajiado Kitui Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Tana- River Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Wajir West- Pokot Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Laikipia Wajir Garissa Kwale Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West-Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri(Kieni) Taita-Taveta Alert Embu(Mbeere) Meru-North Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana-River Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera Garissa Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 54.31 58.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which was at normal greenness. Central 60.01 60.94 Eldama Ravine 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 North 62.51 65.12 South 53.82 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. Banissa 44.29 M East 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County 53.23 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 T. East 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County 34.64 38.82 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County 27.22 23.78 The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W East 29.27 23.68 W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County 38.69 34.59 Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 28.61 26.54 S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.91 21.16 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Balambala 23.42 21.17 Daadab 20.85 15.29 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County 18.97 23.09 There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of July. I. North 19.76 23.94 I. South 17.76 21.79 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County 47.38 45.68 Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 39.23 32.92 K. East 43.33 41.26 K. North 45.34 K. South 44.21 48.55 K. West 56.34 52.74 LAIKIPIA County 38.05 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to Above Normal. L. East 44.73 36.94 L. North 33.18 30.25 L. West 43.95 51.75 THARAKA NITHI County 57.62 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous month of July. Chulga 61.51 50.79 Maara 60.97 46.02 Tharaka 55.08 42.92 POKOT County 51.38 53.13 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 49.12 50.65 Kapenguria Pokot South 63.51 61.87 Sigor 48.62 51.31 County 46.56 39.61 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 42.51 40.01 Mbeere North 53.27 44.86 Mbeere South 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26h VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 38.38 41.68 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 46.37 55.31 Kitui East 40.18 Mwingi Central 32.78 Mwingi North 33.77 27.38 Mwingi 35.43 32.64 Kitui Rural 27.82 Kitui South 41.41 48.56 Kitui West 40.64 41.97 MAKUENI County 44.07 50.46 The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 46.63 Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 Kilome 50.89 56.77 Makueni 39.66 46.16 Mbooni 47.38 County 51.44 44.27 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 53.76 44.15 Central Imenti 51.64 41.85 Igembe Central 60.23 51.11 Igembe North 40.35 38.06 Igembe South 62.33 53.55 North Imenti 51.43 52.32 South Imenti 64.16 Tigania East 34.12 39.66 Tigania 47.09 47.26 NYERI County 58.03 The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI values. Kieni 60.23 Mathira 49.32 42.09 Mukurweini 37.05 Othaya 64.44 37.32 48.76 45.06 KILIFI County 21.19 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Ganze 17.24 Kaloleni 17.95 15.23 Magarini 22.66 21.53 Malindi 24.84 19.41 Kilifi-North 45.34 39.54 Rabai 14.39 Kilifi-South 26.18 KWALE County 30.75 21.04 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration from the previous month of July. Kinango 26.02 16.93 Lungalunga 40.55 Matuga 31.23 23.56 Msambweni 38.99 26.21 County 40.72 32.41 The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under review remained stable in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 50.82 51.31 Lamu West 34.87 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 35.47 43.47 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 40.58 42.58 Taveta 34.15 41.87 32.95 Wundanyi 59.94 NAROK County 59.24 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 57.64 49.59 Emurua Dikirr 62.69 64.54 Kilgoris 51.09 51.75 North 60.88 54.84 South 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "October_2021.pdf": "October 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for September 2021 During the month of September 2021, West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, western parts of Marsabit, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia County received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (70-200mm). The Coast strip, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale received near to below average rainfall. Generally sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over the rest of the country during this period including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. As at 27th September, Mandera, Garissa, Machakos, Makindu and Voi meteorological stations recorded no rainfall during the month. Rainfall Forecast for October 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for October indicates that several ASAL counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience Below-Average rainfall. Turkana, Samburu, Meru, Laikipia, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to above-average, as seen in Figure 2. The October 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2020 with that in September 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current Figure 1. September Rainfall Performance Figure 1. October Rainfall forecast condition of vegetation is considerably below that of September 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 and September As at the end of September 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu and Wajir. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in September 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of September 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of September 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South, Kilifi-North) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North, Laikipia East) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East, Samburu North) Wajir (Wajir South, Eldas, Wajir West) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West, Mandera South) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Township) Samburu (Samburu west) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2021 Cattle Goats Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Laikipia Makueni Turkana Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, over 50 percent of counties reported cattle above LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Tana-River Nithi Wajir West- Pokot Taveta Garissa Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kitui Baringo Garissa Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana-River Turkana Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of September, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Lamu, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of August. Improvement is noted in West Pokot county due to the light showers received during the month of september. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Stable Worsening Livestock Mortality During the reporting period,all ASAL counties did not report livestock mortality except Kilifi that indicated suspected cases of livestock mortality as result of drought and thus need for close monitoring. Prices Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Makueni Mandera Samburu Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in September as compared to the previous month of August as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Garissa Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kilifi Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Baringo Kilifi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Nithi Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 70 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Wajir Pokot Garissa river Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni River Turkana Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except West Pokot ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT maintains a stable and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2021 Indica Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana-River Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Mander aMarsab Nyeri Turkana Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Isiolo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has greatly worsened in most counties. Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Marsabit and Makueni have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic.70 percent of the ASAL counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Makueni Turkana. Isiolo Kilifi Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Nithi Pokot Baringo West Pokot Laikipia Turkana Kilifi Narok Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taveta Tana River Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kwale Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of September 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Meru-North, Tharaka- Nithi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Turkana, Garissa, Lamu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Tana-River and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining Seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Alert Tharaka-Nithi Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Alarm Turkana Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Tana-River Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 58.42 66.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September with Eldama improving from normal greenness to above normal greenness. Central 60.94 73.72 Eldama 42.28 62.20 Mogotio 67.77 North 65.12 71.80 South 63.95 Tiaty 58.54 64.76 MANDERA County 46.67 The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation Banissa 43.65 greenness in the month of September which is a stable trend except Mandera South which improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. M East 39.49 43.56 Lafey 41.53 46.29 M North 44.43 49.12 M South 34.22 48.24 M West 36.45 45.55 TURKANA County 53.23 48.51 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. The county and Turkana South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 72.33 T. East 43.08 38.62 T. Loima 52.88 T. North 43.38 41.79 T. South 57.39 46.86 T. West 56.15 53.43 MARSABIT County 38.82 36.38 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while North Horr improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Laisaimis 34.31 32.29 Moyale 34.34 36.59 N. Horr 41.97 37.98 48.44 48.17 WAJIR County 23.78 33.02 The situation remained stable in the county and Eldas at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir East and North improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness during the month under review while W East 23.68 37.07 W. Eldas 28.52 W. North 34.27 46.72 Wajir south and West improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. W. South 16.92 25.34 W. Tarbaj 30.35 W West 19.36 23.68 SAMBURU County 34.59 30.93 Stability in vegetation condition was noted in the county and two of its sub-counties. Samburu North worsened from normal greenness to Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 26.54 25.44 S. North 41.21 33.36 S. West 44.63 45.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th September Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 21.16 28.73 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate Balambala 21.17 28.38 vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Lagdera sub- county improving from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit band. Daadab 15.29 26.73 21.15 30.93 Ijara 29.44 29.12 Lagdera 17.28 25.15 Dujis 20.41 29.79 ISIOLO County 23.09 27.95 There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of August. I. North 23.94 28.29 I. South 21.79 27.44 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties noted an improving trend from Moderate vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. 28.36 36.12 Galole 25.66 36.96 Garsen 32.21 41.24 KAJIADO County 45.68 55.02 Improving trend noted across the county and four of its sub counties with a stable trend noted for Kajiado West. K. Central 32.92 42.55 K. East 41.26 53.79 K. North K. South 48.55 56.98 K. West 52.74 61.28 LAIKIPIA County 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, a decline L. East 36.94 L. North 30.25 31.25 was noted in Laikipia East whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. L. West 51.75 58.94 THARAKA NITHI County 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Maara improved from normal to above normal greenness. Chulga 50.79 Maara 46.02 52.51 Tharaka 42.92 38.56 POKOT County 53.13 62.75 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 50.65 58.06 Kapenguri 68.61 Pokot South 61.87 73.31 Sigor 51.31 60.09 County 39.61 47.41 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of September with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta Runyenjes sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 40.01 55.59 Mbeere North 44.86 48.87 Mbeere South 35.46 41.71 Runyenjes 42.78 56.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r 2021 Colou values month Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 41.68 48.05 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central remained stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui East, South and West improved from normal to above normal greenness while Mwingi central, west and Kitui rural improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 55.31 62.82 Kitui East 53.31 Mwingi Central 38.74 Mwingi North 27.38 Mwingi 32.64 41.12 Kitui Rural 27.82 35.83 Kitui South 48.56 56.11 Kitui West 41.97 51.15 MAKUENI County 50.46 The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to August for Kaiti, Kibwezi East and Makueni. Kaiti 46.63 72.81 Kibwezi 48.01 57.26 Kibwezi 51.32 58.77 Kilome 56.77 67.07 Makueni 46.16 53.64 Mbooni 72.01 County 44.27 46.51 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and eight others of its Sub-counties except for North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central and South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 44.15 47.66 Central Imenti 41.85 46.95 Igembe Central 51.11 48.94 Igembe North 38.06 40.31 Igembe South 53.55 47.91 North Imenti 52.32 55.16 South Imenti 47.38 Tigania 39.66 44.07 Tigania 47.26 48.02 NYERI County 52.37 The county, Nyeri town and Othaya sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of August, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI conditions. Kieni 52.33 Mathira 42.09 Mukurwei 63.03 37.05 51.56 Othaya 37.32 52.62 45.06 49.62 KILIFI County 21.19 23.08 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 17.24 18.56 Kaloleni 15.23 18.63 Magarini 21.53 25.68 Malindi 19.41 13.41 North 39.54 26.65 Rabai 14.39 18.28 South 26.18 29.46 KWALE County 21.04 23.68 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango improving from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Kinango 16.93 21.24 Lungalung 25.84 Matuga 23.56 27.71 Msambwe 26.21 32.09 County 32.41 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West deteriorated from moderate deficit to severe vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 51.31 47.13 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 43.47 The County and its sub-counties improved from Normal to above normal vegetation greenness while Wundanyi remained stable at above normal greenness with a high VCI value. Mwatate 42.58 Taveta 41.87 59.48 54.19 Wundanyi 59.94 71.06 NAROK County 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and five of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. 49.59 47.91 Emurua Dikirr 64.54 68.62 Kilgoris 51.75 57.32 North 54.84 54.71 South 57.44 52.66 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "November_2021.pdf": "November 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for October 2021 During the month of October 2021, most parts of the ASALs experienced dry weather conditions except the West Pokot, Southern Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia, and Narok Counties received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (76- 125mm). The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet been realized over several places. Most meteorological stations in the counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui and Makueni recorded monthly rainfall totals of less than 75 percent of their October 2 monthly LTMs. Trace amounts of rainfall 5.0mm were observed in Marsabit, Wajir and Makueni. Rainfall Forecast for November 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for November 2021 indicates West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Narok, Kajiado, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi western parts of Kitui and Makueni are likely to experience near-average rainfall for the month. The South-Eastern Lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Taita Taveta), Northeastern (Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Turkana counties) and the Coastal Strip (Kwale, Lamu, Tana River and Kilifi counties) are likely to experience near to below average rainfall as shown in Figure 2. The November 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast Figure 1. October Rainfall Performance Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2020 with that in October 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of October 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2020 and October 2021 As at the end of October 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in October 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the five counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of October 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Malindi) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) recorded the low VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of October 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Malindi) Severe vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu West) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East) Tana River (Bura) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Central, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East, Narok North) Nyeri (Kieni, Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported good pasture condition due to the minimal OND rainfall showers, and Baringo and Narok displaying fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and NO rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Narok Turkana West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Laikipia Narok West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Wajir Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are worsening as compared to the last month of September. These includes; Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tana River and Turkana owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Tana-River Nithi Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Taveta Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri West-Pokot Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana-River Nithi Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of October, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Garrisa,Turkana, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of September. Improvement is noted in Baringo, Makueni county due to stable body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period the following 10(ten) counties including Mandera,Garissa ,Wajir ,Wajir ,Marsabit,isiolo,Tana river,Samburu,Laikipia and Turkana reported cases of livestock death as per table 7.0.The situation has worsened as compared to the previous month and thus need for quick response and close monitoring. Table 7.0.Livestock mortality County Livestock deaths reported Mandera Reported livestock deaths Garissa Reported cases of livestock deaths Wajir Reported cases of livestock deaths Marsabit Deaths reported Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Tana-River Nithi Pokot Baringo Isiolo Makueni Taveta Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Turkana Baringo Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Isiolo Reported cases of livestock deaths Tana river Reported cases of livestock deaths Samburu Reported cases of livestock deaths Laikipia Reported cases of livestock deaths Kilifi Reported cases of livestock deaths Kwale Reported cases of livestock deaths Livestock deaths reported Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in October as compared to the previous month of September as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Kilifi Makueni Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Kitui Marsabit River WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Kitui West Pokot Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Nyeri Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10.0. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 87 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Pokot Kitui Wajir Kitui Samburu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a declining trend as its displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs Table 11.0: Terms of trade, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Makueni Kajiado Kitui Tana-River Baringo Isiolo Kwale Baringo Makueni Pokot Garissa Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni and Taita-Taveta have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Wajir and West-Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Pokot Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Nithi Turkana Samburu Kwale Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Narok Taita-Taveta Tana-River Nithi Turkana Garissa Kitui Makueni Taveta Turkana Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Nithi Wajir Pokot Baringo Kitui Makueni Samburu Taveta Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Tana-River Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of October 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties; Kwale, Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru North, Narok, Nyeri Kieni, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas ten(10) counties including Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana-River,Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the ongoing poor performance of 2021 short rains. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Alert Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Makueni Meru North Narok Nyeri Kieni Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Alarm Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Wajir Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th October 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th Octeber Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 66.42 76.48 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October with an improvement in the VCI values. Central 73.72 88.37 Eldama 62.20 Mogotio 67.77 74.09 North 71.80 79.18 South 63.95 65.46 Tiaty 64.76 77.42 MANDERA County 46.67 The county and its sub counties remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month of October while Mandera South improved from normal greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 43.65 42.28 M East 43.56 41.19 Lafey 46.29 43.11 M North 49.12 48.75 M South 48.24 M West 45.55 48.77 TURKANA County 48.51 54.82 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. The county and Turkana South improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. T Central 72.33 65.27 T. East 38.62 49.96 T. Loima 52.88 65.39 T. North 41.79 45.51 T. South 46.86 53.94 T. West 53.43 60.15 MARSABIT County 36.38 35.55 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Saku improved from normal to above normal greenness. Laisaimis 32.29 32.14 Moyale 36.59 37.51 N. Horr 37.98 36.14 48.17 WAJIR County 33.02 37.21 The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Wajir East and Tarbaj remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Wajir South and West remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. W East 37.07 40.89 W. Eldas 36.15 W. North 46.72 52.62 W. South 25.34 28.44 W. Tarbaj 49.26 W West 23.68 28.92 SAMBURU County 30.93 40.96 The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West improved from normal to Above normal greenness. S East 25.44 33.41 S. North 33.36 46.33 S. West 45.04 53.33 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 28.73 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation deficit band during the month under review with an improvement in the VCI values. Balambala 28.38 29.98 Daadab 26.73 32.74 30.93 34.97 Ijara 29.12 32.67 Lagdera 25.15 29.01 Dujis 29.79 32.33 ISIOLO County 27.95 29.57 There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of September with an improving trend in the VCI values. I. North 28.29 30.22 I. South 27.44 28.58 RIVER County 37.83 The county and two of its sub counties noted a stable trend at normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Bura deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 36.12 34.62 Galole 36.96 Garsen 41.24 41.27 KAJIADO County 55.02 56.18 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. K. Central 42.55 K. East 53.79 56.05 K. North 41.66 K. South 56.98 56.15 K. West 61.28 62.23 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in comparison to the previous month. Laikipia West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while East and North improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation greenness. L. East 38.42 L. North 31.25 40.23 L. West 58.94 67.72 THARAKA NITHI County 41.35 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chulga and Maara remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while Tharaka deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of September. Chulga 53.19 Maara 52.51 52.64 Tharaka 38.56 33.27 POKOT County 62.75 74.49 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month with improving VCI values. Kacheliba 58.06 Kapenguri 68.61 82.26 Pokot South 73.31 81.87 Sigor 60.09 70.67 County 47.41 47.86 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of October with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub-counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 55.59 56.56 Mbeere North 48.87 47.22 Mbeere South 41.71 42.65 Runyenjes 56.17 59.02 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colou values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 48.05 46.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Kitui central, South and West remained stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi Central, West and Kitui Rural remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui East deteriorated from above normal greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 62.82 63.71 Kitui East 53.31 49.34 Mwingi Central 38.74 37.92 Mwingi North 27.94 Mwingi 41.12 46.72 Kitui Rural 35.83 37.53 Kitui South 56.11 53.47 Kitui West 51.15 57.19 MAKUENI County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable trend with an improving trend for almost all of the VCI values when compared to the previous month. Kaiti 72.81 82.18 Kibwezi 57.26 Kibwezi 58.77 59.22 Kilome 67.07 Makueni 53.64 54.69 Mbooni 72.01 77.14 County 46.51 45.72 The vegetation greenness remained stable at normal vegetation greenness across the county and eight of its Sub-counties. North Imenti remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Buuri 47.66 49.06 Central Imenti 46.95 43.88 Igembe Central 48.94 Igembe North 40.31 42.36 Igembe South 47.91 41.06 North Imenti 55.16 50.49 South Imenti 47.38 51.71 Tigania 44.07 41.75 Tigania 48.02 47.18 NYERI County 52.37 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Mathira improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 52.33 49.21 Mathira 54.66 Mukurwein 63.03 61.37 51.56 Othaya 52.62 64.48 49.62 49.24 KILIFI County 23.08 21.24 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North and South Ganze 18.56 16.14 Kaloleni 18.63 15.74 deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit while Malindi deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 25.68 25.89 Malindi 13.41 North 26.65 Rabai 18.28 11.26 South 29.46 16.95 KWALE County 23.68 22.88 The county and all its sub-counties remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of September. Kinango 21.24 20.89 Lungalung 25.84 22.99 Matuga 27.71 28.03 Msambwen 32.09 32.98 County 27.85 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 47.13 41.36 Lamu West 20.03 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 54.63 The County and its sub-counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most of the VCI values showing a decreasing trend in the month under review. Mwatate 54.25 Taveta 59.48 60.43 54.19 51.06 Wundanyi 71.06 69.16 NAROK County 56.02 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. 47.91 44.86 Emurua Dikirr 68.62 Kilgoris 57.32 66.96 North 54.71 49.79 South 54.12 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "December_2021.pdf": "December 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for November, 2021 During the month of November 2021, dry weather conditions were experienced over several parts of the ASALs. However, occasional rainfall was experienced over northern Wajir and Mandera. Isolated storms were also recorded over the Southeastern lowlands, Coastal of Makueni and Kilifi respectively. Mandera and Msabaha are the only stations that recorded above normal rainfall at 170.6 and 154.8, respectively. Moyale, Embu and Meru recorded near average rainfall at 82.3, 80.7 and 77.2 respectively. The distribution both in time and space was generally poor in most areas with most of the rainfall being experienced during the last week of November. Rainfall Forecast for December 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for December 2021 indicates that; During this period, warmer than average SSTs have also been observed along the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean and near average SSTs over equatorial Western Indian Ocean indicating the existence of a neutral IOD. The forecast indicates that several parts of the ASALs are likely to experience below average rainfall during the month of December including; Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. The Southeastern and coastal counties are however Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast Figure 1. November Rainfall performance likely to receive near to below average rainfall as depicted including; Kajiado, Narok, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale counties. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2020 with that in November 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of November 2020 attributed to poor performance of rainfall in the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2020 and November 2021 As at the end of November 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Wajir. The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in November 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of November 2021 is summarized in Table At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit. On the other hand, Garissa Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2021 (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) recorded the low VCI values with the ten (10) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the current dry conditions. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui- Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot and Narok that reported fair pasture condition due to the moderate light showers received as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of two consecutive failed seasons and current Poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. The moderate rains received during the first week of December have not yet had impact on vegetation condition across ASALs counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Narok West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Laikipia Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Narok West Pokot Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Samburu Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kitui Samburu Baring Garissa Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month but on a worsening trend owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kitui Taita-Taveta Narok Wajir Makueni Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana West-Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below average or close to LTA except in Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot counties. The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October 2021. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, counties including Turkana, Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera and Marsabit reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases. Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Starvation and dehydration Kiambere and Evurore Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Turkana Diseases,dehydration and starvation Pastoral areas of Turkana North, South and East Mandera Starvation and dehydration Pastoral areas of entire county Marsabit Vector borne blood parasites Entire county Narok Predation Parts of transmara Crop production October to December (OND) long rains season onset was late and thus planted crops did not germinate forcing farmers to replant again. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River West Pokot Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Taita-Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Wajir Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Lamu Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in November as compared to the previous month of October as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2021 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 22 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the continuing rains in most of the counties. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Makueni Narok Samburu Kwale Kilifi Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Tana River Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kwale Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 99 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. The rains received during the first week of December have slightly improved water recharge however the livestock trekking distances remains above long term average. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Wajir Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT is stable conditions in most counties. The increasing maize prices versus decreasing goat prices the reason behind below average terms of trade. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Makueni Narok West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri Kwale Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. There is no county that recorded an improvement in trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of November 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Taita-Taveta are in the alert drought phase; Two (2) Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir counties including; Baringo and West-Pokot are in Normal drought phase whereas Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Turkana, Kwale and Tharaka-Nithi are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, Tana-River reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded stable trend while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains during this season. The rains received during the first week of December have not yet had positive impact on drought phase classification across ASAL counties. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Makueni Kajiado Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta Laikipia Nyeri Alarm Tana-River Kitui Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Turkana Kilifi Garissa Tharaka-Nithi Kwale Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th November 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 76.48 69.16 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 88.37 87.43 Eldama 83.15 Mogotio 74.09 62.88 North 79.18 72.34 South 65.46 Tiaty 77.42 69.33 MANDERA County 34.18 The county and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in the month of November. Banissa and Mandera North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 42.28 36.87 M East 41.19 28.13 Lafey 43.11 30.35 M North 48.75 M South 34.11 M West 48.77 34.54 TURKANA County 54.82 56.03 There is stability in VCI for the county as all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Turkana East improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness while Turkana North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. T Central 65.27 59.46 T. East 49.96 52.46 T. Loima 65.39 78.63 T. North 45.51 42.19 T. South 53.94 T. West 60.15 59.74 MARSABIT County 35.55 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 32.14 23.39 Moyale 37.51 23.13 N. Horr 36.14 25.78 36.14 WAJIR County 37.21 24.03 The County and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W East 40.89 26.96 W. Eldas 36.15 W. North 52.62 34.76 W. South 28.44 18.63 W. Tarbaj 49.26 31.88 W West 28.92 17.56 SAMBURU County 40.96 39.15 The County and one of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West remained stable at normal greenness. S East 33.41 28.13 S. North 46.33 47.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit S. West 53.33 54.95 GARISSA County 25.01 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation deficit band during the month under review with a decline in the VCI values. Lagdera worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 29.98 Daadab 32.74 25.69 34.97 25.83 Ijara 32.67 30.24 Lagdera 29.01 18.99 Dujis 32.33 22.07 ISIOLO County 29.57 18.51 The entire county and its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. I. North 30.22 19.28 I. South 28.58 17.34 TANA RIVER County 37.83 24.61 The county and all its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month of October. Bura remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 34.62 22.19 Galole 23.73 Garsen 41.27 27.21 KAJIADO County 56.18 44.79 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. The County, Kajiado East and South deteriorated form above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado North improved from normal to above normal greenness. K. Central 37.48 K. East 56.05 41.63 K. North 41.66 52.01 K. South 56.15 42.18 K. West 62.23 52.22 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 46.71 The County and Laikipia North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, while Laikipia West remained stable at above normal greenness. Laikipia East improved from moderate deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. L. East 38.42 L. North 40.23 38.67 L. West 67.72 60.13 THARAKA NITHI County 41.35 35.83 The county and Chuka recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Maara remained stable at above normal greenness while Tharaka remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Chulga 53.19 49.07 Maara 52.64 56.32 Tharaka 33.27 24.29 WEST POKOT County 74.49 72.27 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month. Kacheliba Kapenguria 82.26 78.93 Pokot South 81.87 82.71 Sigor 70.67 66.08 County 47.86 46.99 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of November with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 56.56 55.72 Mbeere North 47.22 45.83 Mbeere South 42.65 41.31 Runyenjes 59.02 61.06 KITUI County 46.65 29.68 The county and five of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of October. Kitui Central and West deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness while Mwingi North deteriorated form moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 63.71 45.22 Kitui East 49.34 30.96 Mwingi 37.92 22.59 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Central Mwingi North 27.94 17.38 Mwingi West 46.72 33.76 Kitui Rural 37.53 24.96 Kitui South 53.47 33.79 Kitui West 57.19 39.62 MAKUENI County 44.59 The county and all its sub counties recorded normal and above normal vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable and deteriorating trend during the month of November. Kaiti 82.18 66.58 Kibwezi East 39.61 Kibwezi West 59.22 42.64 Kilome 49.82 Makueni 54.69 38.79 Mbooni 77.14 County 45.72 42.43 The county and seven of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North and South deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 49.06 51.23 Central Imenti 43.88 53.33 Igembe Central 35.14 Igembe North 42.36 28.94 Igembe South 41.06 North Imenti 50.49 55.99 South Imenti 51.71 60.66 Tigania East 41.75 40.31 Tigania West 47.18 NYERI County 56.82 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni improved from normal to above normal greenness. Kieni 49.21 51.65 Mathira 54.66 60.05 Mukurweini 61.37 62.77 69.13 Othaya 64.48 68.84 49.24 KILIFI County 21.24 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and Magarini deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. The rest of the sub-counties were at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze 16.14 Kaloleni 15.74 Magarini 25.89 14.19 Malindi Kilifi-North Rabai 11.26 -0.48 Kilifi-South 16.95 -8.75 KWALE County 22.88 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 20.89 12.36 Lungalunga 22.99 15.97 Matuga 28.03 16.82 Msambweni 32.98 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 27.85 20.88 The County and Lamu East were at moderate vegetation deficit while Lamu West recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lamu East 41.36 28.41 Lamu West 20.03 16.53 TAITA TAVETA County 54.63 34.05 The County and its sub-counties and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Taveta and Wundanyi deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Mwatate 54.25 31.61 Taveta 60.43 39.87 51.06 31.08 Wundanyi 69.16 48.39 NAROK County 56.02 56.72 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Narok-East 44.86 42.22 Emurua Dikirr 84.65 Kilgoris 66.96 74.86 Narok-North 49.79 52.28 Narok-South 54.12 Narok-West 60.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2022": {
            "January_2022.pdf": "January 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for December, 2021 The month of December marked the cessation of the October to December (OND) seasonal rainfall. An analysis of rainfall by Kenya Metrological Department (KMD) of up to 29th December 2021 indicates that enhanced rainfall (120) was experienced over the eastern sector of the country while depressed rainfall (25) was experienced over the western sector of the country. December was characterized by isolated severe storms over the South-eastern lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Kajiado) and the Coastal strip (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi and Tana River). The highest monthly total rainfall of 315.2 mm (200.7) was recorded in Meru station. The distribution both in time and space was fairly good over the eastern sector and poor over the western sector. Figure 1 shows the December 2021 rainfall performance (). Rainfall Forecast for January 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for January 2022 indicates that; a few parts of the country will experience occasional rainfall during the first and second weeks of January and remain generally sunny and dry towards the end of the month. These include a few areas in; Southern Rift Valley (Narok), south eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) and parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Meru and Embu). Figure 2 portrays the expected rainfall pattern during January 2022. Figure 1. January Rainfall forecast Figure 1. December Rainfall performance Vegetation condition The vegetation condition index in most of the ASAL counties was either severe or extreme deficit even for the coastal and eastern sector that received above average rainfall in the month of December. This is attributed to late onset and poor performance of rainfall in the month of November. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2020 with that in December 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of December 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2020 and December December 2020 December 2021 The month of December 2021 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of November 2021.The deteriorating of vegetation condition was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following (2) counties Kilifi and Kwale county are in the Extreme vegetation deficit band. The following 17 sub counties; Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi- South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North) Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo South) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Lamu, Tana River, Wajir and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties namely; Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu, Taita taveta and Tharaka Nithi are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Five (5) counties namely; Embu, Laikipia, Meru, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Three (3) counties;- Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in December 2021 has deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, December 2020, figure 3 above. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The pasture and browse condition in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor except in Taita-Taveta that reported good browse condition attributed to the minimal OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. Further, the pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and poor rains experienced in OND across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Livestock body condition Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and Lamu which reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long and short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. The livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, December 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average. However, some counties are on an improving while others are in a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Tana River Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Narok Turkana Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are on declining trend as compared to the last month mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5.The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Kajiado Makueni Isiolo Taita-Taveta Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Narok Samburu Turkana Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of December, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA except in Embu, Kilifi, Narok, Taita Taveta and West Pokot counties that recorded above LTA. The goat prices are declining as result of poor body condition and thus need for close monitoring. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, Baringo,Turkana,Garissa,Isiolo,Kitui,Laikipia, Narok ,Mandera, Samburu and Marsabit counties reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases as shown in table 7 below; Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Baringo Diseases Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Kitui Coast Fever (ECF). Anaplasmosis Nzambani, Zombe and Kanyangi wards Laikipia Drought Mukogodo West, Sosian and Olmoran wards Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Goat Prices Kilifi Narok Taita-Taveta West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Tharaka-Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Turkana Wajir Nyeri Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Wajir Baringo Garissa Kwale Marsabit Turkana Turkana Starvation, dehydration and disease Pastoral and Fisheries sites like Kaeris, Kalokol and Kalapata Mandera Starvation and diseases Entire county Marsabit severe drought and livestock disease Entire county Narok Predation Ntuka and oldonyo Narasha Samburu Starvation, Diseases Entire county Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas however, land preparations and planting were ongoing in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Embu (mbeere), and Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale. Farmers have been advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in December as compared to the previous month of November as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and increasing as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0.Maize prices Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Distances to household water points in 15 counties were above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a slight decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the slight rains received during the month of December. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Samburu Tana River Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Baringo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas has improved across the counties. 97 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Laikipia Mandera Baringo Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The below average TOT is as result of increasing maize prices compared to decreasing livestock prices(goat prices) as result of poor livestock body condition Table 11.0: Terms of trade, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Tana-River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Garissa Makueni Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta Baringo Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC was stable in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption, decline in terms of trade and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Kilifi, Narok, Samburu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River counties recorded an improvement in trend Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Taita-Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Tharaka-nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Makueni Mandera Nyeri Tana River Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Narok Samburu Tharaka-nithi Turkana Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Mandera Nyeri Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Turkana West-Pokot West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Wajir West-Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of December 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tana-River, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase. Two (2) counties; Makueni and West-Pokot are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Wajir, Isiolo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana are at an alarm phase however Kitui recorded the recovery phase. During the month under review, eleven (11) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded stable trend while ten (10) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains received during this season. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Makueni West-Pokot Alert Embu (Mbeere) Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Alarm Garissa Kilifi Wajir Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Turkana Recovery Kitui Recommended Interventions Table 14 showing recommended interventions for scale up across various sectors Sector Interventions Counties Food and safety Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress Upscale cash transfer programs Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River Livestock Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR. Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding Voluntary destocking Upscale of livestock insurance programme Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Water Water trucking Water treatment drugs Purchase new water boozers Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Health and nutrition Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Supply of essential drugs Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Surge kit activation SMART Survey to ascertain the level of malnutrition Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, west Pokot Agriculture Support household with water harvesting skills Relief foodcash transfer Support expansion of area under irrigation Embu, Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Education Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools Timely provision of school meals Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri Peace and security Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties Support local peace building and conflict resolution mechanisms Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana River, West Pokot, Coordination Update contingency plan Close monitoring of drought situation Garissa, Kilifi Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th December 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 69.16 52.34 The entire county and three of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness which was a stable trend during the month of December. The rest of the sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November. Central 87.43 74.64 Eldama 83.15 76.47 Mogotio 62.88 41.92 North 72.34 56.36 South 41.44 Tiaty 69.33 49.37 MANDERA County 34.18 24.19 The county and four of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East and South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of December. Banissa 36.87 33.79 M East 28.13 16.68 Lafey 30.35 20.25 M North 28.36 M South 34.11 19.65 M West 34.54 24.12 TURKANA County 56.03 42.89 The county and almost all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of December which was a decline for most areas. Turkana North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T Central 59.46 49.32 T. East 52.46 39.02 T. Loima 78.63 63.88 T. North 42.19 T. South 46.63 T. West 59.74 44.31 MARSABIT County 17.32 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of December which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 23.39 16.48 Moyale 23.13 N. Horr 25.78 17.45 36.14 24.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS WAJIR County 24.03 12.73 The County and five of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Wajir North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. W East 26.96 13.26 W. Eldas 12.12 W. North 34.76 21.21 W. South 18.63 W. Tarbaj 31.88 16.47 W West 17.56 SAMBURU County 39.15 29.05 The county was at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu East deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Samburu North and West recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. S East 28.13 18.92 S. North 47.63 S. West 54.95 42.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.01 17.45 The county and four of its Sub counties were at Severe vegetation deficit band during the month under review. Lagdera worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Ijara remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 11.21 Daadab 25.69 16.77 25.83 19.11 Ijara 30.24 25.11 Lagdera 18.99 Dujis 22.07 13.53 ISIOLO County 18.51 10.28 The county and Isiolo North recorded a severe vegetation deficit while Isiolo South recorded Extreme vegetation deficit during the month of December. I. North 19.28 11.04 I. South 17.34 TANA RIVER County 24.61 19.14 The county and two of its sub-counties were at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Garsen remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 22.19 15.44 Galole 23.73 18.98 Garsen 27.21 22.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS KAJIADO County 44.79 34.79 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kajiado North remained stable at above normal greenness while Kajiado West deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. K. Central 37.48 28.29 K. East 41.63 34.14 K. North 52.01 51.04 K. South 42.18 32.45 K. West 52.22 40.25 LAIKIPIA County 46.71 35.35 The County and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, while Laikipia North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. L. East 47.64 L. North 38.67 29.45 L. West 60.13 40.47 THARAKA NITHI County 35.83 29.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. Chuka and Maara remained stable at normal and Above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Chuka 49.07 45.75 Maara 56.32 Tharaka 24.29 POKOT County 72.27 56.91 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month with declining VCI values. Kacheliba 50.44 Kapenguria 78.93 64.23 Pokot South 82.71 77.55 Sigor 66.08 50.31 County 46.99 48.57 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of December with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 55.72 63.82 Mbeere North 45.83 44.07 Mbeere South 41.31 41.94 Runyenjes 61.06 66.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 29.68 19.03 The county and four of its sub-counties were at severe and extreme vegetation deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. The rest of the sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 45.22 22.93 Kitui East 30.96 16.15 Mwingi Central 22.59 Mwingi North 17.38 Mwingi West 33.76 21.01 Kitui Rural 24.96 10.17 Kitui South 33.79 26.99 Kitui West 39.62 23.75 MAKUENI County 44.59 29.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of December. Kaiti and mbooni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Kaiti 66.58 43.03 Kibwezi East 39.61 26.21 Kibwezi West 42.64 32.14 Kilome 49.82 34.42 Makueni 38.79 24.66 Mbooni County 42.43 41.62 The county and six of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Igembe Central deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Buuri 51.23 Central Imenti 53.33 Igembe Central 35.14 25.58 Igembe North 28.94 22.92 Igembe South 12.83 North Imenti 55.99 61.77 South Imenti 60.66 68.16 Tigania East 40.31 42.23 Tigania West 45.74 NYERI County 56.82 52.15 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Kieni 51.65 47.27 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness during the month of December. Mathira 60.05 50.57 Mukurweini 62.77 60.55 69.13 65.67 Othaya 68.84 66.17 KILIFI County 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and all its sub-counties was at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze -0.31 Kaloleni Magarini 14.19 Malindi -4.45 Kilifi-North Rabai -0.48 -5.27 Kilifi-South -8.75 -14.22 KWALE County 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 12.36 Lungalunga 15.97 Matuga 16.82 Msambweni -12.21 County 20.88 13.47 The County and its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of December which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of November. Lamu East 28.41 18.81 Lamu West 16.53 10.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA County 34.05 22.22 The County and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS TAVETA Mwatate 31.61 20.78 the month of December. Wundanyi remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Voi deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe deficit during the month under review. Taveta 39.87 26.39 31.08 19.71 Wundanyi 48.39 35.97 NAROK County 56.72 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr and Kilgoris remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok East deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of December. Narok-East 42.22 33.63 Emurua Dikirr 84.65 75.03 Kilgoris 74.86 68.29 Narok-North 52.28 49.13 Narok-South 40.32 Narok-West 60.18 45.44 Table 16.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "February_2022.pdf": "February 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of January 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country for most of the month. However, during the third week, moderate to heavy rainfall was experienced over several parts of the ASAL counties. Isolated storms were recorded during this period over a few areas in Northeastern. For instance, Buna rainfall station in Wajir County recorded 107.0mm of rainfall on 17th January, while Marsabit Meteorological station and Gurar rainfall station in Wajir recorded 89.8mm and 58.7mm respectively on the same day. Several meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was below 75 of their January-long term averages (depressed rainfall). Lodwar meteorological station recorded 720.5 of its monthly LTM. Rainfall Forecast for February 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for February 2022 indicates that; most parts of the ASAL counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month. North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail in these areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 30C - 40C. North-eastern Region (Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit): These areas are likely to experience sunny and dry conditions. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 26C - 40C. The Coastal Strip Figure 1. February Rainfall forecast Figure 1. January Rainfall performance (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): These areas are likely to experience generally dry conditions throughout the month. However, a few areas over the south coast are likely to experience light rainfall during the month. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 31C - 35C. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2021 with that in January 2022. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse and is attributed to poor performance of the rains. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of January 2022 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2021.The deteriorating trend was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir West)) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following three (3) including; Isiolo, Wajir and Marsabit is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Nine (9) counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu January 2021 January 2022 and Taita Taveta recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Seven (7) counties including; Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2022 has badly deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2021 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Eldas, Wajir-West Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Marsabit Wajir Mogotio, Lagdera, Isiolo North, Rabai, Lungalunga, Matuga Msambweni, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Laisamis, North Horr, Samburu-East, Turkana North, Wajir- East, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Balambala, Daadab, Isiolo South, Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West, Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Kilifi-South, Kinango, Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West, Banissa, Mandera North, Mandera West, Moyale, Saku, Narok-East, Narok-South, Narok-West, Samburu-North, Samburu-West, Turkana East, Turkana South, Turkana West, Kacheliba, Sigor Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu, Taita- Taveta Baringo Central, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South, Magarini, Kitui-Central, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Laikipia-East, Lamu East, Lamu West, Igembe North, Igembe South, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Bura, Tharaka, Turkana Central, Loima, Kapenguria Vegetation greenness Above normal Kitui Makueni Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Eldama Ravine, Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Kajiado-East, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui South, Kitui West, Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West, Emurua Dikirr, Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township, Wundanyi, Galole, Garsen, Chuka, Maara, West-Pokot South Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except in Embu, Kilifi and Makueni which reported good conditions. Tana River, Meru and Kitui reported good browse conditions and fair conditions of pasture. This is due to the minimal trace OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. The current browse condition is on a stable trend as compared to the previous month whereas the pasture conditions are deteriorating as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and little rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture, and slight regeneration of browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tana River Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and West Pokot which reported good body conditions. Most of the pastoral counties reported poor body conditions for cattle as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Samburu Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Mandera Turkana West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of January are stable compared to the previous month. Declining trend in cattle prices were noted in Baringo, Isiolo, Narok, Marsabit, West Pokot and Narok owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot, Isiolo, Nyeri, Kajiado and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Isiolo Kajiado Tana River Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Kitui Makueni Taita- Taveta Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nithi Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Narok Marsabit West- Pokot Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below LTA except in Narok, Embu and West Pokot counties. The goat prices are stable and on an Improving trend as compared to the previous month of December due to the minimal rainfall showers which enabled regeneration of browse. Table 6.0: Goat prices January 2022 Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Mandera and Marsabit and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Narok reported an upward trend of livestock death resulting from predation. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Narok West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita-Taveta Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana- River Turkana Wajir Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo Mandera Makueni Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta Nithi Wajir West Pokot Crop production October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta, Embu, Makueni, Nyeri as a result of the shadow downpour experienced. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in January as compared to the previous month of December. The few counties reporting improving trend is due to relief aid and imports from neighbouring countiescountry as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Garissa Kajiado Wajir Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Tana River West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 15 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and increase in distance to household water source. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 52 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and improving trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Baringo Kitui Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a stable trend at as it is displaying improving and stable conditions in most counties. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, January 2022 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has equally improved and deteriorated in the counties as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita- Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Mandera, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Narok Samburu Kwale Tana-River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Mandera Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-taveta Tana River Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of January 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (13) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Samburu and West- Pokot are in the alert drought phase two (3) counties; Embu, Makueni and Tana-River are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Kilifi, Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase, while Tharaka-Nithi is in the recovery phase. During the month under review, seven (7) counties reported an improving trend, three (5) counties recorded stable trend while ten (11) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana-River Makueni Alert Kitui Meru-North Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Garissa Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kwale Narok Samburu West-Pokot Alarm Kilifi Turkana Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Wajir Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th January 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.34 28.64 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month. Eldama remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Mogotio recorded severe vegetation deficit while Central Baringo deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Central 74.64 45.13 Eldama 76.47 54.24 Mogotio 41.92 North 56.36 29.96 South 41.44 22.95 Tiaty 49.37 25.74 MANDERA County 24.19 20.88 The county and three of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East and South remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Lafey deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Banissa 33.79 31.87 M East 16.68 12.47 Lafey 20.25 M North 28.36 26.33 M South 19.65 14.98 M West 24.12 20.29 TURKANA County 42.89 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate T Central 49.32 40.03 vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of December. Turkana Central remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while north deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. T. East 39.02 24.18 T. Loima 63.88 41.05 T. North 17.37 T. South 46.63 32.21 T. West 44.31 26.06 MARSABIT County 17.32 13.74 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of January which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Moyale improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 16.48 11.28 Moyale 21.15 N. Horr 17.45 12.81 24.63 21.79 WAJIR County 12.73 13.94 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with most remaining stable. Wajir north deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W East 13.26 11.01 W. Eldas 12.12 W. North 21.21 18.45 W. South 15.84 W. Tarbaj 16.47 12.06 W West SAMBURU County 29.05 20.49 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with a deteriorating trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S East 18.92 16.71 S. North 23.29 S. West 42.99 26.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 17.45 40.85 The county and all its sub-counties improved in the vegetation condition during the month under review. Balambala 11.21 22.67 Daadab 16.77 31.64 19.11 55.52 Ijara 25.11 52.87 Lagdera 10.05 Dujis 13.53 60.52 ISIOLO County 10.28 17.03 The county and one of its sub-counties remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. Isiolo South improved from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit. I. North 11.04 11.25 I. South 25.86 RIVER County 19.14 51.33 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Bura improved from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 15.44 41.13 Galole 18.98 56.21 Garsen 22.38 56.93 KAJIADO County 34.79 35.54 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado Central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while West deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of January. K. Central 28.29 26.68 K. East 34.14 51.84 K. North 51.04 44.74 K. South 32.45 44.83 K. West 40.25 25.78 LAIKIPIA County 35.35 25.04 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Laikipia East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. L. East 47.64 48.55 L. North 29.45 21.05 L. West 40.47 21.16 THARAKA NITHI County 29.54 55.95 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement compared to the previous month. Chulga 45.75 66.75 Maara 75.63 Tharaka 45.59 POKOT County 56.91 31.63 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a decline from the previous month. Pokot South remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 50.44 24.93 Kapenguria 64.23 37.89 Pokot South 77.55 53.54 Sigor 50.31 25.58 County 48.57 70.08 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 63.82 Mbeere North 44.07 67.44 Mbeere South 41.94 66.72 Runyenjes 66.38 78.22 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 19.03 54.79 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of January which was an improvement from the previous month. Kitui Central 22.93 Kitui East 16.15 56.65 Mwingi Central 46.75 Mwingi North 48.95 Mwingi 21.01 52.98 Kitui Rural 10.17 42.64 Kitui South 26.99 60.12 Kitui West 23.75 53.83 MAKUENI County 29.99 56.52 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement. Kaiti 43.03 60.49 Kibwezi 26.21 55.24 Kibwezi 32.14 58.73 Kilome 34.42 56.86 Makueni 24.66 54.56 Mbooni 55.92 County 41.62 57.06 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of January which was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 60.13 Central Imenti 76.93 Igembe Central 25.58 51.27 Igembe North 22.92 42.04 Igembe South 12.83 49.91 North Imenti 61.77 66.12 South Imenti 68.16 74.16 Tigania East 42.23 53.05 Tigania 45.74 63.32 NYERI County 52.15 52.64 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu and Kieni improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kieni 47.27 51.41 Mathira 50.57 50.62 Mukurweini 60.55 62.69 65.67 55.37 Othaya 66.17 50.37 KILIFI County 32.84 The vegetation condition in the county and five of its sub-counties was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was improvement from extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from extreme to normal greenness while Rabai improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze -0.31 33.51 Kaloleni 27.37 Magarini Malindi -4.45 Kilifi-North 25.24 Rabai -5.27 18.44 Kilifi-South -14.22 20.01 KWALE County 22.41 The county and all its sub-counties improved from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate and severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 24.06 Lungalunga 19.96 Matuga 19.44 Msambweni -12.21 19.44 County 13.47 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from severe vegetation deficit. Lamu East 18.81 45.25 Lamu West 10.38 41.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 22.22 42.58 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded normal and above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as compared to the previous month of December. Mwatate 20.78 37.28 Taveta 26.39 36.11 19.71 45.46 Wundanyi 35.97 58.65 NAROK County 32.89 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review with decline in VCI values. Narok-East 33.63 23.48 Emurua Dikirr 75.03 63.06 Kilgoris 68.29 49.79 North 49.13 South 40.32 28.09 45.44 27.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "March_2022.pdf": "March 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of February 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country during the month. However, a few areas including South-eastern lowlands and parts of Northeast (Marsabit) received above average rainfall in comparison with the February Long Term Means (LTMs). Northwestern, the Coast, and most of the North-eastern regions recorded near to below average rainfall. An analysis of rainfall up to 24th February 2022 indicates that Narok received the highest monthly rainfall total of 228.9mm (340.4).Most stations recorded less than 100mm in Moyale, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Malindi. The month was characterized by a few isolated storms in different parts of the ASAL counties. Figure 1 shows the rainfall performance during the month under review. Rainfall Forecast for March 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for March 2022 indicates that Counties in the North-Western Region including Turkana and Samburu will experience Sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall expected towards the end of the month. Counties in the North-Eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to have occasional rainfall in few areas towards the end of the month. The onset of the long rains season is likely during the fourth week of Figure 2. March Rainfall forecast Figure 1. February Rainfall performance March to 1st week of April, 2022.Figure 2.0.indicates the March 2022 outlook. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in February 2021 with that in February 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse. The month of February 2022 showed slight Improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of January 2022.The improvement is associated with the off-season rains that were received in the month of December, January and parts of February. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of priority interventions. The following three counties (3); Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Ten (10) counties including; Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, February 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2022 is provided in Table 1. February 2021 February 2022 Figure 3.Maps Comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-East) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera Marsabit Wajir Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu-East), Wajir (Wajir-West, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North, South, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North), Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Narok (Narok-East), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana West), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok, Turkana Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Dadaab), Isiolo (Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia-East), Narok (Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Turkana (Turkana-South), West Pokot (West-Pokot South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except Kitui which reported good conditions. The 48 percent of ASALs recorded poor pasture condition while 30 percent of the ASAls recorded poor browse condition. The poor pasture and browse condition is as result of previous failed seasons and poor performance of the 2021 short rains as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, February 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Vegetation greenness Above normal Garissa Kitui Makueni Nyeri Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kajiado(Kajiado-East, Kajiado- North), Kilifi(Magarini),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni),Meru(Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr),Nyeri( Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable and fair to poor across most of ASAls. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Embu, Kajiado, Kitui and Taita taveta which reported good body conditions. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse as shown in table Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, February 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Baringo Mandera Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average and generally below LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous months with 70 percent of ASALs recording milk production below average. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Productio Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Makueni Baringo Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of February are stable compared to the previous month with 40 percent of the counties cattle prices below LTA as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Baringo Makueni Nyeri Taita-Taveta Nithi Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Narok Samburu Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Baringo Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were stable as compared to the previous month with Embu,Kajiado,Kilifi,Kitui,Laikipia,Meru ,Narok, Tana river, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recording prices Above LTA while Baringo,Garissa,Lamu,Marsabit,Samburu,Turkana,Wajir and Nyeri(kieni) recording prices below LTA. Table 6.0: Goat prices February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui laikipia Narok Tana-River Isiolo Kwale Makueni Taita-Taveta Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kwale Kitui Makueni Nithi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo,Turkana, Mandera and Marsabit which was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Crop production October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however harvesting was ongoing in some counties like Embu, Meru, Kitui, Makueni and Kilifi (Mangoes, pineapples and water melons) while crops were at poding and tussling stage in Taita taveta.Generally there was crop failure in marginal agricultural areas due to poor performance of the 2021 short rains season. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most countie, the price of maize were above avarage but on stable trend as compared to the previous month of January with 70 percent of ASAls reporting above avarage maize prices. The few counties of Embu(mbeere) and Meru North recorded an improvement due to the ongoing harvesting activity in the counties as demonstrated in Table 7.The current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, February 2022 Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Indicator Current status Trend WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 56 percent of counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water sources due to the rains received during the month of January and February. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Wajir Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Baringo Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Narok Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas on worsening trend as compared to the previous month.65 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being on worsening trend attributed to poor recharge as result of poor performance of the season as shown in table Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Kajiad Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Narok Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are stable but below the long-term average (LTA).78 percent of the counties ToT is below average. The below average ToT is as result of increasing maize price with decreasing livestock prices(goat).Table 10 indicates the current status of ToT across ASALS. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, February 2022 Indicato Current status Trend Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC is stable as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita-Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition in the counties was Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Tana-River Kilifi Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taveta Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Tana-River Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir West-Pokot mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0 shows the children at risk of malnutrition during the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu taveta Tana River Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Taveta Tana River Nithi West Pokot Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of February 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (10) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Kwale, Laikipia, Kilifi, Lamu and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase two. Six (6) counties; Embu, Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas seven(7) counties including Baringo,Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu,Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, Five (5) counties recorded stable trend while sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of the previous seasons. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, February 2022 Drought status Trend Improving (2) Stable (5) Worsening (16) Normal Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana-River Alert Kitui Kwale Meru-North Tharaka-Nithi Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Laikipia Garissa Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th February 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 28.64 25.84 The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable severe vegetation deficit while Eldama deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Central 45.13 31.91 Eldama 54.24 42.22 Mogotio 16.22 North 29.96 26.17 South 22.95 26.38 Tiaty 25.74 23.79 MANDERA County 20.88 16.17 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation condition from moderate to severe in the month under review. Banissa 31.87 23.49 M East 12.47 10.81 Lafey 13.49 M North 26.33 20.36 M South 14.98 11.95 M West 20.29 TURKANA County 37.31 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation T Central 40.03 63.64 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above normal. T. East 24.18 33.01 T. Loima 41.05 60.16 T. North 17.37 T. South 32.21 43.89 T. West 26.06 30.32 MARSABIT County 13.74 18.92 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of February which is a stable trend as compared to the previous month. North Horr improved from Severe to moderate Laisaimis 11.28 Moyale 21.15 23.03 N. Horr 12.81 20.82 21.79 29.12 WAJIR County 13.94 14.89 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with most remaining stable. Wajir East deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. However, Wajir West improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W East 11.01 W. Eldas W. North 18.45 16.84 W. South 15.84 19.16 W. Tarbaj 12.06 11.02 W West SAMBURU County 20.49 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with an improving trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S East 16.71 18.85 S. North 23.29 S. West 26.29 21.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 40.85 52.18 The county improved from normal vegetation greenness to Above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 22.67 33.57 Daadab 31.64 35.23 55.52 69.69 Ijara 52.87 Lagdera 10.05 15.14 Dujis 60.52 79.25 ISIOLO County 17.03 28.05 The county improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review while Isiolo south improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Isiolo north remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. I. North 11.25 17.57 I. South 25.86 44.07 RIVER County 51.33 62.11 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Bura improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness. 41.13 52.73 Galole 56.21 65.54 Garsen 56.93 67.92 KAJIADO County 35.54 41.55 The County and its sub-county of Kajiado south remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado west and central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado East remained stable at above normal greenness while north improved from normal to above normal greenness during the month of February. K. Central 26.68 K. East 51.84 56.28 K. North 44.74 51.11 K. South 44.83 47.37 K. West 25.78 LAIKIPIA County 25.04 23.47 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was L. East 48.55 46.95 a stable trend. Laikipia East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Laikipia North and West deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of February. L. North 21.05 19.63 L. West 21.16 19.33 THARAKA NITHI County 55.95 67.14 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement compared to the previous month of January. Chulga 66.75 73.54 Maara 75.63 75.53 Tharaka 45.59 62.04 POKOT County 31.63 28.53 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable from the previous month. Pokot South and Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal and normal vegetation greenness to normal greenness and moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Sigor deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 24.93 27.79 Kapenguri 37.89 31.25 Pokot South 53.54 Sigor 25.58 19.26 County 70.08 74.51 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 75.01 Mbeere North 67.44 72.93 Mbeere South 66.72 74.93 Runyenjes 78.22 76.01 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 54.79 68.65 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of February which was an improvement from the previous month. Kitui Central 62.96 Kitui East 56.65 73.64 Mwingi Central 46.75 Mwingi North 48.95 69.87 Mwingi 52.98 73.62 Kitui Rural 42.64 59.13 Kitui South 60.12 68.35 Kitui West 53.83 67.64 MAKUENI County 56.52 69.32 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement with improving VCI values. Kaiti 60.49 76.81 Kibwezi 55.24 68.02 Kibwezi 58.73 68.87 Kilome 56.86 72.91 Makueni 54.56 66.53 Mbooni 55.92 71.58 County 57.06 61.75 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of February which was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 60.13 57.76 Central Imenti 76.93 71.79 Igembe Central 51.27 63.98 Igembe 42.04 51.31 North Igembe South 49.91 72.73 North Imenti 66.12 63.61 South Imenti 74.16 70.25 Tigania 53.05 Tigania 63.32 66.54 NYERI County 52.64 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most having improved VCI values during the month of February. Kieni 51.41 59.27 Mathira 50.62 59.03 Mukurwei 62.69 58.82 55.37 60.87 Othaya 58.29 50.37 57.81 KILIFI County 32.84 47.05 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub- counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the month under review.This was an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from normal to above normal greenness while Rabai improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni, Kilifi North and South remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze 33.51 46.86 Kaloleni 27.37 33.02 Magarini 52.51 Malindi 42.59 North 25.24 33.86 Rabai 18.44 21.86 South 20.01 24.78 KWALE County 22.41 29.71 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was an improvement. Msambweni improved from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 24.06 Lungalung 19.96 26.29 Matuga 19.44 30.07 Msambwe 19.44 39.68 County 65.59 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 45.25 63.73 41.38 66.67 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 42.58 51.38 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as compared to the previous month of January. Mwatate 37.28 Taveta 36.11 41.93 45.46 54.18 Wundanyi 58.65 63.34 NAROK County 32.89 40.69 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Kilgoris and Narok North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 23.48 32.56 Emurua Dikirr 63.06 63.18 Kilgoris 49.79 49.48 North 40.51 South 28.09 38.85 27.18 40.31 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2022.pdf": "April 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to worsen in sixteen (16) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. Seven (7) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo and Turkana are in Alarm drought phase while ten (10) counties including Garissa, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining six (6) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere) and Tana River are in Normal drought phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of March 2022 Rainfall Performance The month of March marks the onset of the March-May (MAM) long-rains season in the country. However, the month was characterized by long dry spells over several parts of the ASAL counties. Sunny and dry conditions prevailed for most of the month over the Northeast, South Coast, and the Southeastern lowlands. Rainfall was, however, received over these areas during the fourth week of March. The Northwest and most of the Coastal Strip experienced sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Depressed rainfall was recorded over most parts of the country. The North- western and North Coast regions have not yet realized their onset which was expected during the fourth week of March to first week of April. Figure 1. March 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for April 2022 According to the Kenya Meteorological Service, the outlook for April 2022 indicates that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and Southern Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County, and parts of the Northeast and southeastern lowlands are likely to experience near average rainfall. Parts of the Northeast, Southeastern Lowlands, and the Coastal region are likely to receive below-average. The forecast also indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience near to below-average rainfall, especially during the first half of the month. Vegetation condition (VCI) Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2021 with that of March 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) March 2021 March 2022 Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall forecast The month of March 2022 showed slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2022. The improvement is associated with light sporadic showers with some areas already experiencing early onset. Two sub counties; Wajir (Wajir East), Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Generally, four counties (4); Mandera, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit while five (5) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Marsabit, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and activation of response plans. Additionally, five (5) counties including; Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while nine (9) counties namely; Embu, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, March 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1.0. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Wajir (Wajir-East), Mandera (Mandera East) Severe vegetation deficit Laikipia Mandera Samburu Wajir Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Baringo (Eldama-Ravine), Isiolo (Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado- Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado- South), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, Malindi), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in March coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta, Turkana North, Tigania-East,) Narok (Narok-North, Narok-East), Taita- Taveta (Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tana River (Bura), Turkana (Turkana-west) West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni),Meru( Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-West)Nyeri(Kieni,Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate)Tana River( Galole, Garsen),Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has not yet improved as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and late onset of the 2022 long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Makueni Meru North Taita Taveta Baringo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Makueni Meru North Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of March remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Tana-River, Nyeri and West-Pokot reported above normal prices due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Baringo Isiolo Mandera Wajir Turkana Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly Above the LTA but below LTA in Garissa, Lamu, Marsabit, Wajir, and Nyeri. The goat prices are stable as compared to the previous month of February as shown in table 6. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui laikipia Makueni Narok Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Samburu Garissa Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi and Meru North and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. Table 7.0. Livestock Mortality County Cattle Population Deaths Mortality SheepGoat population Deaths Mortality Camel Population Deaths Mortality Overall Marsabit 32,800 4,569,647 566,500 791,029 23,520 12.64 Samburu 28,568 10.00 566,772 28,339 49,149 0.000 Turkana 13,638,397 35,167 6,000,000 0.003 Mandera 46,345 6,732,577 41,223 1,641,001 7,976 0.486 Wajir 114,785 12.85 5,422,324 102,780 1,184,083 13,389 3.079 Baringo 0.0001 1,500,453 0.006 13451.18 Crop production In the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture and Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties, land preparation and planting is ongoing in 90 of those counties in anticipation of the MAM long rains which are yet to be experienced in majority of the counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize was at a stable and worsening trend in March as compared to the previous month. Its only Meru and Lamu reporting improving trend due to the harvests from Kajiado South and low demand in Lamu as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Laikipia Wajir WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, in 12 counties, distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, the access to water for household is on worsening trend. The delayed long rains onset and the poor rainfall performance of the short rains season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. In 73 percent of counties, livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening and stable trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Makueni Narok Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In 73 percent of counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists. The TOT is on stable trend. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Tana-River Kilifi Makueni Narok Baringo (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri(Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Narok Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has deteriorated in the counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Wajir having MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Table 12.0 shows the trends of MUAC Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Narok Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Turkana Wajir West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties Tharaka-Nithi, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while six (6) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita-Taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas (7) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana-River Alert Tharaka-Nithi Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision and scale-up of food assistance and shock responsive cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements to save core breeding stock. Supportive veterinary treatments and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Active monitoring of transboundary livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks at strategic locations. Health and nutrition sector Support for integrated health outreaches, nutrition mass screening and referrals Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support for point of use water treatment. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Support incentives for school enrolment and retention. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and cascading to sub-counties and sector technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th March 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 25.84 23.08 The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Eldama remained normal vegetation greenness. Central 31.91 24.65 Eldama 42.22 36.43 Mogotio 16.22 16.21 North 26.17 24.19 South 26.38 26.44 Tiaty 23.79 20.22 MANDERA County 16.17 12.05 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the previous month. Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit Banissa 23.49 14.41 M East 10.81 Lafey 13.49 10.08 M North 20.36 14.07 M South 11.95 11.51 M West 11.44 TURKANA County 37.31 46.88 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central, Turkana south and Loima sub-counties recorded above T Central 63.64 85.67 T. East 33.01 34.37 T. Loima 60.16 74.72 normal. T. North 31.65 T. South 43.89 54.86 T. West 30.32 38.27 MARSABIT County 18.92 21.42 The county improved to a moderate vegetation condition during the month of March. Moyale recorded Severe vegetation deficit from moderate in February. Laisaimis 14.29 Moyale 23.03 18.87 N. Horr 20.82 25.56 29.12 30.88 WAJIR County 14.89 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable, However, Wajir Eldas improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W East W. Eldas 10.31 W. North 16.84 15.27 W. South 19.16 16.35 W. Tarbaj 11.02 11.08 W West 11.61 SAMBURU County 16.45 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review with a deteriorating trend. S East 18.85 13.87 S. North S. West 21.85 17.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 52.18 46.35 The county dropped from Above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 33.57 31.81 Daadab 35.23 27.97 69.69 57.93 Ijara 70.29 Lagdera 15.14 16.17 Dujis 79.25 ISIOLO County 28.05 26.79 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Isiolo North remained at severe vegetation deficit. I. North 17.57 18.72 I. South 44.07 39.12 TANA RIVER County 62.11 51.28 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness except Bura sub-county which dropped from above normal greenness to normal vegetation greenness. 52.73 44.75 Galole 65.54 51.84 Garsen 67.92 56.47 KAJIADO County 41.55 41.12 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition whereas Kajiado West improved from moderate to normal vegetation deficit. K. Central 38.01 K. East 56.28 K. North 51.11 49.53 K. South 47.37 36.34 K. West LAIKIPIA County 23.47 17.17 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit which was a deteriorating trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 46.95 32.69 L. North 19.63 13.95 L. West 19.33 15.69 THARAKA NITHI County 67.14 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable as compared to the previous month of February. Chulga 73.54 67.33 Maara 75.53 68.36 Tharaka 62.04 52.53 WEST POKOT County 28.53 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of February. Kacheliba 27.79 29.47 Kapenguria 31.25 29.34 Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Pokot South 37.21 Sigor 19.26 16.18 County 74.51 63.92 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 75.01 Mbeere North 72.93 61.84 Mbeere South 74.93 Runyenjes 76.01 70.22 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 68.65 54.57 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March which was stable as compared to the previous month. Kitui Central 62.96 Kitui East 73.64 58.72 Mwingi Central 54.05 Mwingi North 69.87 59.14 Mwingi 73.62 Kitui Rural 59.13 53.07 Kitui South 68.35 50.21 Kitui West 67.64 55.85 MAKUENI County 69.32 59.34 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable but with reduced VCI values. Kaiti 76.81 77.86 Kibwezi East 68.02 55.25 Kibwezi 68.87 56.33 Kilome 72.91 65.96 Makueni 66.53 55.17 Mbooni 71.58 68.67 County 61.75 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while 3 recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of March which was stable as compared to the previous month. Buuri 57.76 49.41 Central Imenti 71.79 60.97 Igembe Central 63.98 51.45 Igembe North 51.31 39.14 Igembe South 72.73 North Imenti 63.61 South Imenti 70.25 64.65 Tigania East 43.55 Tigania West 66.54 NYERI County 61.01 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 59.27 57.13 Mathira 59.03 65.61 Mukurweini 58.82 55.05 60.87 73.62 Othaya 58.29 67.23 57.81 58.54 KILIFI County 47.05 40.08 The vegetation condition in the county and three of its sub- counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit, with the other counties being stable as compared to the previous month. Ganze 46.86 36.26 Kaloleni 33.02 22.97 Magarini 52.51 47.38 Malindi 42.59 Kilifi-North 33.86 26.65 Rabai 21.86 13.82 Kilifi-South 24.78 17.74 KWALE County 29.71 26.69 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a stable trend. Msambweni deteriorated to moderate vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness during the previous month. Kinango 26.56 Lungalunga 26.29 23.44 Matuga 30.07 30.68 Msambweni 39.68 33.72 County 65.59 67.35 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement in values from previous month. Lamu East 63.73 64.59 Lamu West 66.67 68.94 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 51.38 The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a decline as compared to the previous month of February. Mwatate 60.98 Taveta 41.93 42.69 54.18 45.39 Wundanyi 63.34 49.98 NAROK County 40.69 58.26 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties improved from normal vegetation greenness to Above normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained Narok-East 32.56 47.92 Emurua Dikirr 63.18 66.28 stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 49.48 62.54 North 40.51 47.13 South 38.85 59.27 40.31 64.55 Annex 2.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Annex 3.0. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "May_2022.pdf": "May 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to bite in seventeen (17) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.1 million in February to 3.5 million currently. Eight (8) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Turkana and Laikipia are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining five (5) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Embu (Mbeere) are in Normal drought phase. While one county, Tharaka Nithi, is in recovery phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April- May) season. However, depressed rainfall was received over several parts of the ASAL counties with most of the counties receiving between 10-50 percent of normal rains with exception of parts of Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, Baringo, West Pokot, Kwale, Marsabit and Mandera receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rains. The rains were characterized by poor distribution in duration and geography. Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for May 2022 The forecast indicates that North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): The first half of the month is likely to be characterized by near to slightly above average rainfall. North-eastern Region (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo): Occasional rainfall is expected at the beginning of the month. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Tana River and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Parts of Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2021 with that in April 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of April 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of March 2022. The deterioration is associated with the late onset of long rains of 2022 in most of the ASAL area. 5 sub counties; Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi-South) Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Seven counties (7); Mandera, Kwale, Isiolo, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kitui, Kilifi, Tana- River, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in April 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, April 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Table 13. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South) Laikipia (Laikipia North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) Severe vegetation deficit Kwale Laikipia Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Baringo (Baringo-Central, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga) Laikipia (Laikipia-West) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Garissa Kitui Kilifi Tana-river West Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Eldama ravine) Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo-South) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi Central, Kitui South) Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Moyale, Saku), Meru (Igembe North,) Taita-Taveta (Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana-West) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Embu (Mbeere-South) Garissa (Fafi, Township) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado-South) Kitui (, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Makueni,) Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Mukurweini) Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana River (Garsen), West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara,) Lamu (Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti,), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-East, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta (Mwatate) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions while browse was at fair condition in most counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in the ongoing MAM season coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Narok Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has worsened as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties have deteriorated from fair to poor livestock body condition. Conversely though, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The poor to fair condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal downpours of the MAM long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Meru North Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average but generally on a stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year although Kwale, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Productio Garissa Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kajiado Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of April remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. However, the current cattle prices are below long-term average in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. In contrast, Embu Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West-Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Four counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties did report a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kwale Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Laikipia Mandera Samburu Turkana Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties ranged from above LTA and below LTA as compared to the previous month. The trend was however stable and improving owing to the minimal rainfall which resulting to regeneration of pasture and forage (albeit little) for goat consumption except for Isiolo county which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, Turkana and West Pokot reported mortality as a result of starvation and diseases. The rains were also a major cause of mortality as the weak animals succumb to it in counties like Mandera, Turkana and Wajir. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of Coast Marginal Agriculture counties of Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta, the ongoing trend is of land preparation as most of the planted crops wilted due to high temperatures. Most of the recently planted crops were at germination stage. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing drought resistant crops. Maize prices The prices of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks. Garissa, Kilifi and Lamu are atclose to LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Garissa Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 16 counties registered distances to water for households as currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water source. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 61 percent of counties recorded above LTA livestock trekking distance to water point as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Sambur Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Pokot Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Tana River Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Pokot Terms of trade Teams of Trade values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists which is 74 percent of the counties. The TOT is on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month of March. The worsening trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has been increasing rapidly due to depletion of the stocks available among ASALs. Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Health and nutrition Most counties recorded a stable trend of MUAC, others showed improvement while a few have deteriorated as compared to the previous month,with. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity and reduced food intake at household level. Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Kwale and Narok counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tana-River Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Wajir Garissa Mandera Marsabit Taita-Taveta Tana-River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Nithi Turkana Pokot Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Pokot Garissa Makueni Narok Kwale Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Taita- Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kitui Mandera Samburu Tana River Nithi Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni and Taita-Taveta are in the normal drought phase, whereas (8) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase with one (1) county that is Tharaka Nithi is on recovery phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (8) counties reported a worsening trend. The trend displayed is as result of the down pours experienced during the month of April. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, April 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Alert Garissa Kilifi West-Pokot Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui Kwale Tana-River Alarm Baringo Mandera Turkana Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th April 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 23.08 20.18 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Baringo central and Tiaty deteriorated to stand at severe vegetation deficit in the month of April. Central 24.65 17.26 Eldama 36.43 32.51 Mogotio 16.21 13.12 North 24.19 South 26.44 Tiaty 20.22 18.86 MANDERA County 12.05 17.01 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the previous month whereas Mandera East displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. Banissa 14.41 18.93 M East Lafey 10.08 12.39 M North 14.07 16.84 M South 11.51 19.87 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit M West 11.44 TURKANA County 46.88 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above normal whereas Turkana west dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T Central 85.67 76.66 T. East 34.37 28.16 T. Loima 74.72 64.02 T. North 31.65 26.99 T. South 54.86 50.16 T. West 38.27 33.52 MARSABIT County 21.42 18.87 The county deteriorated to severe vegetation condition during the month of April. Laisaimis 14.29 11.92 Moyale 18.87 21.49 N. Horr 25.56 21.86 30.88 23.46 WAJIR County 14.76 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable, However, Wajir East improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit and Wajir North recorded moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in March. W East 13.14 W. Eldas 10.31 15.19 W. North 15.27 20.83 W. South 16.35 12.72 W. Tarbaj 11.08 15.75 W West 11.61 12.27 SAMBURU County 16.45 11.73 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review with exception of Samburu East which is at extreme vegetation deficit. S East 13.87 S. North 14.55 S. West 17.81 14.95 GARISSA County 46.35 31.18 The county dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 31.81 20.98 Daadab 27.97 20.08 57.93 35.88 Ijara 70.29 51.73 Lagdera 16.17 Dujis 36.96 ISIOLO County 26.79 17.11 The county dropped from moderate vegetation deficit to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North 18.72 13.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit I. South 39.12 21.88 TANA RIVER County 51.28 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit except Garsen sub-county which is at normal vegetation greenness. 44.75 29.17 Galole 51.84 34.37 Garsen 56.47 39.85 KAJIADO County 41.12 36.52 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. Central 38.01 36.88 K. East K. North 49.53 44.06 K. South 36.34 36.34 K. West 45.64 LAIKIPIA County 17.17 12.46 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a deteriorating trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North is at extreme vegetation deficit as of this month. L. East 32.69 23.48 L. North 13.95 L. West 15.69 12.79 THARAKA NITHI County 44.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. Chuka 67.33 57.76 Maara 68.36 62.83 Tharaka 52.53 32.85 WEST POKOT County 25.46 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of March. Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 29.47 26.61 Kapenguria 29.34 26.89 Pokot South 37.21 35.49 Sigor 16.18 16.62 County 63.92 53.51 The county and all its sub-counties except Mbeere South recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 67.43 Mbeere North 61.84 52.17 Mbeere South 47.26 Runyenjes 70.22 64.14 KITUI County 54.57 32.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. The situation of VCI in April has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Kitui Central 43.93 Kitui East 58.72 33.69 Mwingi Central 54.05 34.01 Mwingi North 59.14 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mwingi 48.27 Kitui Rural 53.07 35.26 Kitui South 50.21 28.39 Kitui West 55.85 36.82 MAKUENI County 59.34 43.48 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a worsening trend as compared to March. Kaiti 77.86 69.97 Kibwezi East 55.25 37.58 Kibwezi 56.33 Kilome 65.96 56.02 Makueni 55.17 39.33 Mbooni 68.67 54.18 County 41.24 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 2 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April with Igembe North recording moderate vegetation deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri 49.41 39.98 Central Imenti 60.97 57.32 Igembe Central 51.45 36.17 Igembe North 39.14 24.45 Igembe South 44.37 North Imenti 49.44 South Imenti 64.65 63.71 Tigania East 43.55 38.46 Tigania West 40.13 NYERI County 61.01 55.86 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Mukurweini which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 57.13 51.21 Mathira 65.61 60.07 Mukurweini 55.05 46.43 73.62 52.54 Othaya 67.23 71.36 58.54 65.94 KILIFI County 40.08 24.49 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South deteriorated from severe vegetation deficit to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze and Kaloleni recorded severe vegetation deficit Ganze 36.26 19.68 Kaloleni 22.97 10.07 Magarini 47.38 31.77 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Malindi 23.51 which is a great decline in status as compared to the month of March. Kilifi-North 26.65 Rabai 13.82 Kilifi-South 17.74 KWALE County 26.69 18.55 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded a decline in vegetation condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Kinango 26.56 18.33 Lungalunga 23.44 15.51 Matuga 30.68 23.29 Msambweni 33.72 23.67 County 67.35 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness except Lamu East which is at normal vegetation greenness which is a decline in values from previous month. Lamu East 64.59 49.86 Lamu West 68.94 51.92 TAITA TAVETA County The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable as compared to the previous month of March. Mwatate 60.98 50.68 Taveta 42.69 35.86 45.39 32.23 Wundanyi 49.98 39.42 NAROK County 58.26 67.25 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok East and North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during this month of April. Narok-East 47.92 55.45 Emurua Dikirr 66.28 71.79 Kilgoris 62.54 73.39 Narok-North 47.13 51.19 Narok-South 59.27 71.59 Narok-West 64.55 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "June_2022.pdf": "JUNE 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in nineteen (19) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.5 million in May to 4.1 million in June 2022. Six (6) counties namely Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Samburu are in Alarm drought phase while thirteen (13) counties including Kilifi, Turkana, West-Pokot, Kwale, Meru (North), Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Tana-River are in Alert drought phase. The remaining four (4) counties including Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May marked the cessation of the Long Rains season over most parts of the Country. In May 2022, several parts of the country experienced dry weather conditions except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, Coastal region, and a few areas over Northeast and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley that experienced occasional rainfall. Analysis of May 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 29th indicates that most parts of the country experienced below-average rainfall except Wajir which experienced above- average rainfall at 129 for two days. Narok and Lamu experienced near average rainfall at 89.4 and 84.4 respectively. All the other stations recorded less than Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall performance 75 of their May LTM (average) rainfall. The rainfall was characterized by isolated storms over parts of the country. On 1st May, Diff station in Wajir, Sericho in Isiolo and Kaibos in West Pokot recorded 68.0mm, 64.0mm, and 50.1mm respectively. Rainfall Forecast for June 2022 The forecast indicates that several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2022. However, near to above-average rainfall is expected over parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley, while the Lake Victoria Basin and South Rift Valley is likely to receive near average rainfall. The Coastal strip is likely to experience near-average rainfall tending to below-average (depressed) rainfall. Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) and Southeastern lowlands (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado) are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. However, high terrain areas in some counties in southeastern Kenya are likely to have chilly and foggy conditions on occasion. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2021 with that in May 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of May 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of April 2022.The deterioration is associated with the poor performance of the long rains of 2022. The following 3 sub counties; Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni) and Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following Seven counties (7); Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana-River and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. The following Five (5) counties including; Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Embu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, May 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Annex 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. May 2021 May 2022 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2022 Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni), Mandera (Mandera-East) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga), Laikipia (Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West), Marsabit (Lafey, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-South, Wajir-West), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo(Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East Kajiado South), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi),Kitui(Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui Rural, Kitui South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia(Laikipia-East), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North, Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi., Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-East), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir-North,Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North, Kajiado-West), Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-West, Kitui-West), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu-West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Igembe-Central, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North, Turkana-South, Turkana-West), West Pokot (West Pokot-South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, North-Imenti, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to minimal showers of rains received during the May onset which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Makueni which reported good body condition while three counties (Kajiado, Lamu and West Pokot) reported good body conditions for the goat species as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal down pours of the MAM long rains season resulting to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Meru North Narok Taita taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Makueni West Pokot Milk production Milk production was on a stable trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the previous OND rains season, the late onset and minimal showers during this month of May and persistent dry spell being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kitui Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana Mandera Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of May remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West- Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Narok Laikipia Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Embu, Makueni, Meru, Narok counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and leading to mortality attributable to drought effects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa. There is need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu (16.90), Mandera (11.30), Isiolo (8.01), Lamu (7.63), Marsabit (7.4) and Garissa (6.8). The reported livestock mortalities for Wajir County (5.33) are likely to increase as the drought situation assumes a worsening trend. Kajiado, Embu, Kwale, Kitui, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Makueni Narok Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi did not report any livestock mortalities attributable to drought related. The counties of Kilifi, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Meru, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Meru reported livestock mortalities within county herds ranging from 0.01 in Baringo to 1.5 in Kilifi. In Meru and Nyeri, most mortalities are from immigrant livestock from Isiolo, Marsabit and Wajir Counties. The reported mortalities as updated by the counties as at the end of May 2022 are presented in the following table; Table: Reported Drought Related Livestock Mortalities County Cattle Mortality SheepGoat Mortality Camel Mortality Overall Rate () (No.) Deaths (No.) Populatio n (No.) Deaths (No.) on (No.) (No.) Samburu 369,399 152,561 1,477,906 112,501 54,063 16.90 Mandera 863,625 138,213 4,579,722 558,752 1,016,79 11.30 Isiolo 274,055 19,000 2,209,532 24,800 307,011 105,054 8,900 66,420 4,200 Marsabit 33,105 4,569,647 580,300 791,029 Garissa 1,322,54 264,508 4,002,922 120,100 450,000 Wajir 893,040 114,785 5,422,324 102,780 1,184,08 Kilifi 210,513 9,500 244,242 37,564 Nyeri 66,000 180,000 Nyeri 6,000 4,000 10. West Pokot 4,621 1,214,285 10,500 11. Turkana 3,143,44 1,332 13,559,89 29,589 949,649 12. Laikipia 68,800 4,500 211,920 9,800 13. Meru North 291,156 14. Tana River 475,398 20,825 1,097,208 33,450 67,950 15. Baringo 518,982 1,500,453 13,451 16. Kajiado 786,082 2,425,957 2,550 17. Embu 18. Kwale 243,862 456,221 19. Kitui 324,351 1,476,390 20. Makueni 251, 385 982,888 21. Narok 1,488,91 3,619,387 22. Taita Taveta 144,700 232,300 2,480 23. Tharaka Nithi 162,984 297,634 TOTALS 13,012,8 772,284 50,481,61 1,577,50 4,891,14 Nyeri data on immigrant herds present in the county. A zero means there was no reportage and not necessarily absence of mortalities Crop production In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor with most counties reporting withering of crops, with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. In the South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties there are different outputs but majorly its plant growth at knee high stage. In Kwale and Lamu planting and weeding is ongoing same as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing, this is attributed by stressed moisture in May and poor performance of the 2022 long rains season couple with late onset and early cessation and failure of the previous season. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize was at a stable or worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month, these is as a result of the dry spell experienced in the countries from last year failure of OND rain seasons and the late onset of MAM rain seasons as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is decrease and increase in distance to household water source. The poor rainfall performance of long rains is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Kitui Samburu Turkana Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Wajir Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Mandera Narok Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is at a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices while maize prices has increased and thus lowering the purchasing power among pastoralists. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2022 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has either improved or deteriorated in a number of counties as compared to the previous month,with most counties recording a stable trend. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Garissa Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Taita-Taveta West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties; Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana, Tharaka-Nithi and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties; Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in the normal drought phase, whereas six (6) counties; Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, five (5) counties reported an improving trend, Six (6) counties recorded stable trend while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Makueni Alert Kilifi Turkana West-Pokot Kwale Meru North Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Kajiado Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Tana-River Alarm Mandera Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Support for commercial and emergency livestock offtake Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of fast-moving spare parts for strategic high convergence water facilities. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support establishment of stabilization centres for acute malnutrition cases Support for mass screening and integrated health outreaches Support for food safety monitroing Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Water trucking to schools for drinking, hygiene and preparation of meals. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Support for cross-border dialogues for access to drought survival resources. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Support for internal sectoral drought risk management coordination. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as May 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 20.18 33.01 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Eldama improved from moderate to normal vegetation greenness. Central 17.26 30.16 Eldama 32.51 40.06 Mogotio 13.12 27.18 North 29.39 South 34.33 Tiaty 18.86 MANDERA County 17.01 23.91 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is an improvement from the previous month whereas Mandera East Banissa 18.93 30.94 M East Lafey 12.39 16.52 displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. M North 16.84 26.72 M South 19.87 25.64 M West 24.94 TURKANA County 38.64 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month of May. T Central 76.66 T. East 28.16 26.37 T. Loima 64.02 42.41 T. North 26.99 36.58 T. South 50.16 36.83 T. West 33.52 44.75 MARSABIT County 18.87 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of May. Laisaimis 11.92 11.97 Moyale 21.49 22.54 N. Horr 21.86 15.54 23.46 15.13 WAJIR County 14.76 18.62 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable. W East 13.14 23.64 W. Eldas 15.19 16.95 W. North 20.83 25.38 W. South 12.72 14.46 W. Tarbaj 15.75 25.18 W West 12.27 13.63 SAMBURU County 11.73 14.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 10.96 S. North 14.55 16.86 S. West 14.95 17.84 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 31.18 27.31 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 20.98 10.69 Daadab 20.08 19.46 35.88 33.65 Ijara 51.73 47.83 Lagdera Dujis 36.96 18.07 ISIOLO County 17.11 11.57 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Isiolo South deteriorated to severe I. North 13.99 11.17 I. South 21.88 12.17 vegetation deficit. TANA RIVER County 24.19 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Garsen sub-county deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. 29.17 20.02 Galole 34.37 22.11 Garsen 39.85 29.03 KAJIADO County 36.52 33.08 The County and three of its sub-county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North and West remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. Central 36.88 30.86 K. East 31.06 K. North 44.06 43.65 K. South 36.34 20.47 K. West 45.64 45.17 LAIKIPIA County 12.46 14.28 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North and West is at severe vegetation deficit as of this month. L. East 23.48 23.04 L. North 10.29 L. West 12.79 17.54 THARAKA NITHI County 44.03 42.07 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. Chuka 57.76 Maara 62.83 57.21 Tharaka 32.85 WEST POKOT County 25.46 28.47 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of April. Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 26.61 28.38 Kapenguria 26.89 32.59 Pokot South 35.49 39.41 Sigor 16.62 18.69 County 53.51 57.44 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 67.43 61.62 Mbeere North 52.17 60.54 Mbeere South 47.26 54.31 Runyenjes 64.14 57.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 32.92 27.82 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of May with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating and stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. The situation of VCI in May has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Kitui Central 43.93 35.98 Kitui East 33.69 25.59 Mwingi 34.01 28.74 Central Mwingi North 34.75 Mwingi 48.27 47.19 Kitui Rural 35.26 32.15 Kitui South 28.39 22.42 Kitui West 36.82 36.43 MAKUENI County 43.48 41.79 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to April. Kibwezi East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 69.97 71.76 Kibwezi East 37.58 Kibwezi 33.41 Kilome 56.02 50.28 Makueni 39.33 46.31 Mbooni 54.18 58.55 County 41.24 38.87 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 4 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May with Igembe North recording severe vegetation deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Buuri 39.98 34.11 Central Imenti 57.32 57.51 Igembe Central 36.17 37.08 Igembe North 24.45 17.22 Igembe South 44.37 51.57 North Imenti 49.44 South Imenti 63.71 59.72 Tigania East 38.46 Tigania West 40.13 NYERI County 55.86 53.68 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Kieni which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Mukurweini improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 51.21 45.06 Mathira 60.07 60.91 Mukurweini 46.43 65.84 52.54 69.52 Othaya 71.36 65.69 65.94 57.78 KILIFI County 24.49 17.53 The vegetation condition in the county and four of its sub-counties was at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini and Malindi remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 19.68 11.49 Kaloleni 10.07 Magarini 31.77 21.56 Malindi 23.51 20.54 Kilifi-North 12.61 Rabai 12.71 Kilifi-South 14.48 KWALE County 18.55 17.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Kinango 18.33 13.12 Lungalunga 15.51 Matuga 23.29 30..54 Msambweni 23.67 30.76 County 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Lamu West declined from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 49.86 45.93 Lamu West 51.92 43.05 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 23.95 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of April. Mwatate 50.68 27.32 Taveta 35.86 28.53 32.23 20.61 Wundanyi 39.42 29.15 NAROK County 67.25 60.23 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 55.45 57.47 Emurua Dikirr 71.79 67.34 Kilgoris 73.39 61.53 Narok-North 51.19 50.72 Narok-South 71.59 64.32 Narok-West 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Distances to water Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "July_2022.pdf": "JULY 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. The number of counties in the Alarm stage of drought has increased from five (5) in May to eight (8) in June 2022. The counties in Alarm drought phase are Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo while twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. Three counties namely Narok, West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county) are in Normal drought phase. The number of people in need of assistance is 4.1 million up from 3.5 million in May 2022. Drought indicators June Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in June. Analysis of the June 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 28th June 2022 indicates that most parts of the ASALs experienced near to below average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 50mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties were also badly hit as they received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 25mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties received some off- season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving a moderate to above normal rainfall amounts. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 100mm - 150mm of rainfall. The same situation was experienced in some parts of Agro pastoral cluster; parts of Narok west and southern parts of Baringo county receiving off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for July 2022 The July 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands will be generally dry and sunny. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall performance Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sun and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of the coastal counties with exemption of the coastal line stretch of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties which are expected to receive NearAbove average rainfall. The Pastoral North West counties; especially Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is expected to stretch eastwards towards, Samburu county. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast skies with light rainfall. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2021 with that in June 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of June 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of May 2022. The following June 2021 June 2022 Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall forecast 2 sub-counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following six counties (6); Isiolo Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit and Samburu are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita-Taveta, Tana-River and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The vegetation condition in June 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, June 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Garissa (Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado- south) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera-East, Lafey) Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana- River (Bura, Galole), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta River Wajir Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi-Central, Kitui-South), Kwale (Lungalunga), Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North ,Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana-River (Garsen), Turkana (Turkana-East, Turkana-South), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Turkana West- Pokot Baringo (Baringo-Central, Mogotio, Baringo-North, Baringo-South, Tiaty), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado-West), Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-North, Mwingi-West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe-Central, North-Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Township), Tharaka-Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North,), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Baringo (Eldama-ravine), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu- West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua-Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok- South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana-West) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2022 Livestock Production Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for a long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Tharaka Nithi Makueni Meru (North) Narok Tana River West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Mandera Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Baringo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Meru (North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2022 Livestock Body Condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor condition with exception of Kilifi which reported good body condition for cattle and Kajiado and Lamu for goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as a result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Baringo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Meru (North) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Baringo Garissa Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Meru (North) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Milk Production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, West Pokot and Meru recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season, the late onset and minimal showers during the month of May and persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk Production, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Kwale Samburu West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Narok Garissa Kitui Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tana River Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta NB: All the 270 sampled households in Turkana County reported that they did not milk their livestock since milk was barely enough for young calves, kids or lambs Cattle Prices In most counties, cattle prices in the month of June remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar period during a normal year. However, Tana-River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle Prices, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Narok Kwale West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kajiado Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Narok Turkana Wajir Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Tana River Narok Kitui Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Samburu Turkana Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Makueni Garissa Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Wajir Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following multiple failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to extreme vegetation deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. This has led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock, leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortalities in some pockets of Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, and Mandera. There is a need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. Crop Production In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor, with most counties reporting withering of crops with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. The majority of plant growth in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties is knee-high. In Kwale and Lamu, planting and weeding are ongoing, just as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing. Maize Prices In all counties, the price of maize was on a stable or worsening trend in June as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA due to depletion of stocks. Table 7.0: Maize Prices, June 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to Water for Households In comparison to the long-term average, distance to water for households in 20 counties is above the LTA. The distance between the household and the water source is generally increasing in comparison to the previous month. West-Pokot and Tana-River counties showed an improving trend. The trend in the distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Baringo Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Access to Water for Livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water sources from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 74 percent of counties were above LTA with most counties being on a worsening trend except for Samburu County, which is on an improving trend. This is illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Garissa Narok Baringo Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Narok Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Terms of Trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, June 2022 Health and Nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported a worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Garissa Nyeri West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Tana River Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Garissa Kilifi Taita-Taveta Narok Samburu Drought Phase Classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of June 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county), West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Narok are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded a stable trend, while fourteen (14) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West Pokot Narok Alert Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Laikipia Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Samburu Isiolo Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th June 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 33.01 45.38 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of May. Eldama improved from Normal vegetation greenness Vegetation greenness above normal. Central 30.16 47.68 Eldama 40.06 53.21 Mogotio 27.18 41.33 North 29.39 39.05 South 34.33 46.75 Tiaty 46.32 MANDERA County 23.91 24.11 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month. Mandera East improved from extreme to severe. Banissa 30.94 31.82 M East Lafey 16.52 17.96 M North 26.72 28.42 M South 25.64 24.09 M West 24.94 TURKANA County 38.64 43.33 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month June. T Central 36.11 T. East 26.37 28.78 T. Loima 42.41 39.83 T. North 36.58 45.68 T. South 36.83 T. West 44.75 62.78 MARSABIT County 15.22 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of June. Moyale maintained at moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 11.97 13.93 Moyale 22.54 22.93 N. Horr 15.54 13.86 15.13 17.42 WAJIR County 18.62 23.26 The County and most of its sub counties recorded an improvement from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness. W East 23.64 32.07 W. Eldas 16.95 16.49 W. North 25.38 26.73 W. South 14.46 W. Tarbaj 25.18 31.43 W West 13.63 SAMBURU County 14.15 19.36 The county and one of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu west and north improved to moderate vegetation deficit. S East 10.96 14.37 S. North 16.86 24.16 S. West 17.84 23.15 GARISSA County 27.31 29.58 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala worsened to extreme vegetation deficit while Fafi and Ijara showed improvement in vegetation condition. Balambala 10.69 Daadab 19.46 19.16 33.65 37.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Ijara 47.83 54.09 Lagdera Dujis 18.07 14.93 ISIOLO County 11.57 11.22 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North 11.17 11.29 I. South 12.17 11.11 TANA RIVER County 24.19 22.95 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Bura and Galole sub-counties deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. 20.02 Galole 22.11 18.65 Garsen 29.03 28.57 KAJIADO County 33.08 31.02 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded vegetation greenness above normal while Kajiado south recorded severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 30.86 24.28 K. East 31.06 25.89 K. North 43.65 55.67 K. South 20.47 K. West 45.17 47.11 LAIKIPIA County 14.28 16.35 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia East and West was at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 23.04 22.08 L. North 10.29 10.38 L. West 17.54 24.76 THARAKA NITHI County 42.07 47.66 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of May. Chuka 56.81 Maara 57.21 64.62 Tharaka 38.79 POKOT County 28.47 38.17 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of May. Pokot South improved to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 28.38 35.14 Kapenguria 32.59 Pokot South 39.41 55.11 Sigor 18.69 County 57.44 62.23 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 61.62 65.67 Mbeere North 60.54 60.86 Mbeere South 54.31 61.38 Runyenjes 57.38 KITUI County 27.82 31.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of June with all of its sub-counties displaying an improving trend as compared to the previous month of May. Kitui Central 35.98 35.05 Kitui East 25.59 29.86 Mwingi Central 28.74 32.84 Mwingi North 34.75 Mwingi West 47.19 48.85 Kitui Rural 32.15 35.66 Kitui South 22.42 27.95 Kitui West 36.43 40.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit MAKUENI County 41.79 42.85 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to May. Kibwezi East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 71.76 65.77 Kibwezi East 29.63 Kibwezi West 33.41 32.14 Kilome 50.28 40.96 Makueni 46.31 60.66 Mbooni 58.55 60.67 County 38.87 38.12 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 3 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June with Igembe North recording severe vegetation deficit portraying a stable trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri 34.11 30.92 Central Imenti 57.51 62.21 Igembe Central 37.08 36.64 Igembe North 17.22 13.11 Igembe South 51.57 57.49 North Imenti 46.51 South Imenti 59.72 Tigania East 32.92 Tigania West 29.33 NYERI County 53.68 57.17 The county and four of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Kieni and township which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 45.06 48.12 Mathira 60.91 65.91 Mukurweini 65.84 Othaya 65.69 74.14 57.78 70.43 Township 69.52 49.27 KILIFI County 17.53 19.81 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kilifi South improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 11.49 12.85 Kaloleni 14.26 Magarini 21.56 21.72 Malindi 20.54 28.77 Kilifi-North 12.61 23.29 Rabai 12.71 25.74 Kilifi-South 14.48 25.25 KWALE County 17.15 19.99 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit, a stability in vegetation condition during the month under review. Kinango 13.12 12.79 Lungalunga 22.32 Matuga 30..54 41.67 Msambweni 30.76 38.89 County 57.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 45.93 57.25 Lamu West 43.05 TAITA TAVETA County 23.95 20.31 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of May. Mwatate and Wundanyi worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Mwatate 27.32 18.78 Taveta 28.53 24.85 20.61 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Wundanyi 29.15 26.53 NAROK County 60.23 57.05 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Narok-East 57.47 58.56 Emurua Dikirr 67.34 Kilgoris 61.53 54.11 Narok-North 50.72 56.24 Narok-South 64.32 57.02 Narok-West Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data at a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency, or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "August_2022.pdf": "AUGUST 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 Long rains coupled with previous three failed consecutive seasons. The number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October 2022 if the short rains season performs below average. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase while Thirteen (13) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 884,464 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 115,725 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Drought indicators July Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in July. Several parts of the ASALs counties experienced below-average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 25mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 50mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties received some off-season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving moderate to above normal rainfall. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 51mm - 100mm of rainfall while some parts of Agro- pastoral cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals, with some areas receiving very high rainfall totals of 151mm. Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for August 2022 The August 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (95 percent) will be typically dry and sunny. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of coastal counties with the exemption of the coastal strip of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties. The Pastoral North West counties; especially western strip of Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall. West Pokot county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall respectively. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast conditions with light rainfall. Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2021 with that in July 2022. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of July 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of June 2022. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers experienced. However, many areas still experienced vegetation deficits. The current vegetation condition in July 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, July 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). Two (2) sub counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance while three counties (3); Isiolo, Laikipia and Mandera are in severe vegetation deficit. Eleven (11) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. Four (4) counties including; Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, west Pokot and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while five (5) counties including; Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. July 2021 July 2022 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Ganze), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia- East, Laikipia-North) Mandera (Mandera East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Daadab, Township), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini) Kitui (Kitui- Central Kitui East, Kitui South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Township), Samburu (Samburu-North Samburu-West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tana River ( Bura, Galole, Garsen) Turkana ( Turkana Central, Turkana East, Turkana South), Wajir ( Eldas, Wajir-North, Wajir- South) Normal vegetation greenness Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Pokot, Turkana Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo North), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Meru (North Imenti), Narok (Narok-South), Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Wajir-East, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor) Vegetation greenness Above normal Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Narok, Nyeri Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo South, Tiaty), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana ( Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, West-Pokot South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition was stable as compared to previous month of June. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Kilifi and Lamu counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, July 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Milk production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Baringo, Kilifi, Mandera, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni and Tharaka Nithi County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of July remained stable compared to the previous month. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Tana River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand in the livestock market amidst to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Narok Tana River West Pokot Makueni Kilifi Kitui Kwale Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kitui Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kilifi Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improvement of trend in Garissa and Narok while the counties of Samburu, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Tana River Narok Garissa Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Garissa Narok Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kwale Tana River Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation condition deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortality. The livestock mortalities reported so far, are within normal ranges in the ASAL counties except Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa which have registered slightly above normal mortality rates. Crop production In the CMA counties, the crops that were at harvesting stage are in poor sate and thus farmers may not realize any harvest while there were no crops in counties like Nyeri and Makueni. Weeding was ongoing in Mixed Farming Zone of Kwale County. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in July as compared to the previous month. The current maize prices are above LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, July 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties reported above LTA distances to water for households while 3 counties are at LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance from households to water sources. No county showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kilifi Kitui Wajir Isiolo Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties as illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Garissa Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Kwale West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Narok West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Wajir Tana River Kwale Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Makueni Garissa Nyeri West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Isiolo Narok Nyeri West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Garissa Kilifi Taita-Taveta Narok Samburu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including Embu Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River and Kwale are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in the Normal drought phase. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, July 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th July 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 45.38 51.89 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of June. Central 47.68 57.51 Eldama 53.21 64.44 Mogotio 41.33 47.72 North 39.05 45.43 South 46.75 51.14 Tiaty 46.32 52.21 MANDERA County 24.11 28.32 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of June. Lafey improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 31.82 31.85 M East 19.04 Lafey 17.96 26.14 M North 28.42 30.26 M South 24.09 31.66 M West 24.77 TURKANA County 43.33 43.13 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month July. T Central 36.11 32.25 T. East 28.78 29.18 T. Loima 39.83 39.29 T. North 45.68 43.31 T. South 33.45 T. West 62.78 65.63 MARSABIT County 15.22 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of June. Moyale worsened to severe vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness Laisaimis 13.93 16.37 Moyale 22.93 19.77 N. Horr 13.86 13.77 17.42 20.56 WAJIR County 23.26 29.14 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 32.07 41.08 W. Eldas 16.49 20.77 W. North 26.73 29.54 W. South 27.18 W. Tarbaj 31.43 39.33 W West 24.01 SAMBURU County 19.36 22.22 The county improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 14.37 15.97 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit S. North 24.16 S. West 23.15 25.66 GARISSA County 29.58 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala was constant at extreme vegetation deficit. Balambala Daadab 19.16 21.22 37.42 40.08 Ijara 54.09 55.58 Lagdera Dujis 14.93 20.97 ISIOLO County 11.22 12.29 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 11.29 12.95 I. South 11.11 11.27 TANA RIVER County 22.95 26.88 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Bura and Galole sub-counties improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. 22.69 Galole 18.65 23.76 Garsen 28.57 32.38 KAJIADO County 31.02 27.25 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east worsened to severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 24.28 17.78 K. East 25.89 19.66 K. North 55.67 60.26 K. South 17.62 K. West 47.11 42.91 LAIKIPIA County 16.35 19.41 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia worsened to severe vegetation deficit. L. East 22.08 19.75 L. North 10.38 12.59 L. West 24.76 32.02 THARAKA NITHI County 47.66 46.53 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of June. Chuka 56.81 58.67 Maara 64.62 64.64 Tharaka 38.79 36.16 WEST POKOT County 38.79 46.65 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of June. Pokot South improved to normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 38.17 43.31 Kapenguria 35.14 52.41 Pokot South 64.56 Sigor 55.11 37.27 County 56.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 62.23 62.27 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mbeere North 65.67 51.09 Mbeere South 60.86 54.36 Runyenjes 61.38 67.64 KITUI County 31.92 33.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of July. Kitui central, Mwingi north and Kitui rural showed a worsening trend Kitui Central 35.05 31.47 Kitui East 29.86 31.94 Mwingi Central 32.84 35.74 Mwingi North Mwingi 48.85 42.69 Kitui Rural 35.66 33.06 Kitui South 27.95 33.36 Kitui West 40.85 37.46 MAKUENI County 42.85 41.32 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to June. Kilome deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 65.77 57.55 Kibwezi East 29.63 29.38 Kibwezi 32.14 32.31 Kilome 40.96 28.64 Makueni 60.66 63.49 Mbooni 60.67 County 38.12 34.01 The county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 30.92 28.06 Central Imenti 62.21 58.84 Igembe Central 36.64 31.13 Igembe North 13.11 10.36 Igembe South 57.49 51.78 North Imenti 46.51 38.56 South Imenti 64.99 Tigania East 32.92 27.07 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania West 29.33 22.72 NYERI County 57.17 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni and township improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 48.12 56.88 Mathira 65.91 65.53 Mukurweini 53.53 Othaya 74.14 59.11 70.43 48.77 Township 49.27 52.33 KILIFI County 19.81 27.22 The vegetation condition in the county deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kilifi South improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 12.85 18.87 Kaloleni 14.26 22.36 Magarini 21.72 26.78 Malindi 28.77 39.73 Kilifi-North 23.29 44.44 Rabai 25.74 41.13 Kilifi-South 25.25 46.61 KWALE County 19.99 21.69 The county recorded an improvement from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kinango 12.79 12.21 Lungalunga 22.32 26.84 Matuga 41.67 47.53 Msambweni 38.89 43.52 County 57.28 69.65 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 57.25 67.49 Lamu West TAITA TAVETA County 20.31 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of June. Mwatate and Voi improved to moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Mwatate 18.78 22.44 Taveta 24.85 25.07 22.17 Wundanyi 26.53 28.66 NAROK County 57.05 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Narok-East 58.56 56.88 Emurua Dikirr 65.53 Kilgoris 54.11 53.53 Narok-North 56.24 59.11 Narok-South 57.02 48.77 Narok-West 52.33 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "September_2022.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the failure of four consecutive seasons with the forecast for OND predicting the likely of fifth season under performing. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase to 4.35Million by October 2022. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit are under Alarm drought phase while Ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Worsening household food security situation has resulted in acute malnutrition rates noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. 2. Drought situation based on key indicators 2.1 August Rainfall Performance Analysis of the August 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced near to below-average rainfall (less than 60mm of rainfall). The PNE1 counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received traces of rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The SEMA2 counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range of (20mm - 60mm). The CMA3 counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between (10mm - 40mm). Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received July-August rainfall that was normal to above normal in the range of 80mm - 200mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot South receiving very high rainfall totals of 200mm. 1 Pastoral North Eastern 2 South Eastern Marginal Agriculture 3 Coast Marginal Agriculture Figure 1. August 2022 Rainfall Rainfall Forecast for OND Season rainfall outlook October November and December (OND) season is illustrated in figure 2. ASAL counties mainly fall under zone2 and zone3. Zone3 which comprises of PNE, SEMA, and CMA livelihood zones which includes; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are likely to recieve below average (highly depressed) rainfall. The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 65 with some chances of Near Normal at 20 and Above normal at 15. Zone2 which includes Pastoral North West (PNW) and AGP livelihood counties; Turkana, parts of Marsabit, parts of Samburu, West Pokot, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall (Below Average Rainfall). The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 45 with some chances of Near Normal at 25 and Above normal at 20. The south western parts of West Pokot county bordering Mount Elgon is forecasted to receive Near Average Rainfall. Generally, the OND season is forecasted to be a failed season just like its predicessors which calls for anticipatory action in the ASAL counties. 2.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2021 with that in August 2022. Generally, the 2022 index indicates low values in the counties of Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa and Tana River. Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) August 20212022 The month of August 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in the coast marginal agriculture counties of Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta and parts of south east marginal agriculture counties of Tana River. Mandera, Wajir and Turkana. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers of June-July-August season of 2022. The following 1 sub-county Nyeri (Township) is in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following three counties (3); Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit while twelve (12) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui, Meru, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Makueni, Nyeri and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following two (2) counties including; Baringo and Lamu, recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, August 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. August 2021 August 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Nyeri (Nyeri town) Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado South), Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2022 2.3 Livestock production 2.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to failed MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu East) Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera Wajir Garissa Tana river Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kwale Taita taveta Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West), Turkana (Turkana East, Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir South, Wajir West), Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu West), Garissa (Daadab, Dujis), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Kajiado North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui West), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Narok (Narok South). Normal vegetation greenness Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Narok Baringo (Mogotio), Embu (Manyatta), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado West), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Malindi), Kitui (Kitui South, Mwingi Central), Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera South), Meru (Igembe South), Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana South, Turkana Central) Wajir (Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Narok (Narok East, Kilgoris, Narok West) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo Baringo (Baringo central, Baringo north, Baringo south, Eldama ravine, Tiaty), Embu (Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kilifi (Kilifi South, Rabai), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Tharaka Nithi (Maara), Turkana (Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok North). Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita taveta Turkana Wajir Marsabit Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Marsabit Kajiado Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo Kilifi West Pokot 2.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition reported slight improvement as compared to previous month of July. However, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair-to- poor with the exception of Kilifi and Kwale counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair-to-poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Mandera Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir Marsabit Baringo Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi west Pokot Kilifi Kwale Isiolo Mandera Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir Marsabit Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Kwale 2.3.3 Milk production The current milk production is below average as compared to normal year with only Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties at above LTA. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. Some counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir 2.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of August remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5 shows the trend of cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Kwale Tana River West Pokot Narok Makueni Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok West Pokot Kitui Kajiado Nyeri Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana 2.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were at LTA. Majority of the trend was however stable and worsening. The counties on improvement of trend were Baringo, Kitui, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot. The following counties, Embu, Garissa, Nyeri, Wajir and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Kitui Narok Baringo Garissa Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Baringo Kitui Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Garissa Nyeri Tana River Wajir 2.3.6 Livestock Mortality The counties of Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa have registered slightly above normal mortality rates as drought conditions persisted in ASAL counties following failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores leading to mortality attributed to drought effects. 2.4 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties, harvesting was ongoing in parts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta and South east marginal agriculture counties of Kitui and Makueni. However harvests are below normal. Land preparation is ongoing across the counties. 2.4.1 Maize prices In the counties of Baringo, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, West Pokot, Marsabit and Nyeri, the price of maize was at an improving trend in the month under review while eight registered stable prices as the remaining five counties showed worsening prices compared to the previous month, as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2022 2.5 WATER ACCESS 2.5.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. Five counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Samburu and Tharaka Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana 2.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties are above LTA with most counties being at worsening trend except for Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot and Makueni counties which are at improving trend. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Garissa Kajiado Kitui Tana River Wajir Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Taita Taveta Turkana 2.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) except Nyeri an indication of low purchasing powers across the households. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Marsabit Narok West Pokot Isiolo Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir 2.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Marsabit counties reported a worsening trend that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Samburu Narok West-Pokot Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kitui Taita-Taveta Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir 3.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of August 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Lamu, West Pokot Baringo Alert Kwale Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Alarm Laikipia Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th August 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 51.89 52.79 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of July. Mogotio maintained at normal vegetation greenness. Central 57.51 Eldama 64.44 68.68 Mogotio 47.72 49.57 North 45.43 50.89 South 51.14 50.74 Tiaty 52.21 50.54 MANDERA County 28.32 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of July. Mandera east improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 31.85 35.78 M East 19.04 21.25 Lafey 26.14 30.52 M North 30.26 33.73 M South 31.66 39.54 M West 24.77 32.62 TURKANA County 43.13 37.56 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month August. T Central 32.25 36.14 T. East 29.18 30.57 T. Loima 39.29 33.32 T. North 43.31 32.45 T. South 33.45 37.97 T. West 65.63 53.05 MARSABIT County 15.57 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of August. Saku worsened to severe vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness Laisaimis 16.37 16.42 Moyale 19.77 17.98 N. Horr 13.77 14.27 20.56 19.31 WAJIR County 29.14 31.79 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 41.08 W. Eldas 20.77 20.98 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit W. North 29.54 35.46 W. South 27.18 29.84 W. Tarbaj 39.33 W West 24.01 20.84 SAMBURU County 22.22 19.69 The county improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 15.97 S. North S. West 25.66 23.64 GARISSA County 30.61 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala and Lagdera improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 13.92 Daadab 21.22 23.71 40.08 Ijara 55.58 50.22 Lagdera 11.26 Dujis 20.97 25.92 ISIOLO County 12.29 13.77 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 12.95 12.92 I. South 11.27 15.08 RIVER County 26.88 30.92 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. 22.69 30.28 Galole 23.76 28.34 Garsen 32.38 33.09 KAJIADO County 27.25 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 17.78 16.91 K. East 19.66 17.96 K. North 60.26 27.29 K. South 17.62 19.53 K. West 42.91 36.51 LAIKIPIA County 19.41 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit L. East 19.75 16.45 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was an improvement. Laikipia West improved normal vegetation greenness. L. North 12.59 12.84 L. West 32.02 THARAKA NITHI County 46.53 41.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of July. Chuka 58.67 48.09 Maara 64.64 56.89 Tharaka 36.16 33.31 POKOT County 46.65 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of July. Kacheliba 43.31 46.56 Kapenguria 52.41 57.04 Pokot South 64.56 61.38 Sigor 37.27 38.05 County 56.17 30.55 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was deteriorating trend. Manyatta 62.27 38.13 Mbeere North 51.09 27.12 Mbeere South 54.36 26.46 Runyenjes 67.64 45.16 KITUI County 33.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Kitui Central 31.47 22.16 Kitui East 31.94 Mwingi Central 35.74 36.99 Mwingi North 30.06 Mwingi West 42.69 Kitui Rural 33.06 Kitui South 33.36 37.93 Kitui West 37.46 28.49 MAKUENI County 41.32 36.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to July. Kaiti 57.55 36.12 Kibwezi East 29.38 30.68 Kibwezi West 32.31 31.97 Kilome 28.64 20.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Makueni 63.49 52.37 Mbooni 46.12 County 34.01 32.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 28.06 27.62 Central Imenti 58.84 54.11 Igembe Central 31.13 29.75 Igembe North 10.36 14.81 Igembe South 51.78 42.78 North Imenti 38.56 31.74 South Imenti 64.99 65.76 Tigania East 27.07 Tigania West 22.72 26.11 NYERI County 40.07 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Township worsened from above normal vegetation greenness to extreme vegetation deficit. Kieni 56.88 43.96 Mathira 65.53 28.82 Mukurweini 53.53 42.43 Othaya 59.11 43.26 48.77 48.16 Township 52.33 KILIFI County 27.22 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate vegetation greenness. Ganze 18.87 21.84 Kaloleni 22.36 32.59 Magarini 26.78 27.81 Malindi 39.73 37.62 Kilifi-North 44.44 48.81 Rabai 41.13 51.13 Kilifi-South 46.61 48.81 KWALE County 21.69 32.42 The county recorded a constancy at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 12.21 Lungalunga 26.84 45.06 Matuga 47.53 47.79 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Msambweni 43.52 County 69.65 71.51 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 67.49 68.34 Lamu West 73.34 TAITA TAVETA County 24.52 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of July. Mwatate 22.44 23.14 Taveta 25.07 22.09 22.17 25.44 Wundanyi 28.66 NAROK County 42.13 There was deterioration in vegetation cover as the county normal vegetation greenness from Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Narok-East 56.88 43.19 Emurua Dikirr 65.53 56.29 Kilgoris 53.53 46.55 Narok-North 59.11 52.51 Narok-South 48.77 34.68 Narok-West 52.33 40.48 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Distances to water Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "October_2022.pdf": "OCTOBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continues to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four successive failed rains seasons. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance currently stands at 4.35 million based on 2022 long rains food and nutritional security assessment report. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6- 59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. NB For detailed county analysis, please visit the NDMA website www.ndma.go.ke 2. Key indicators performance 2.1 September Rainfall Performance Analysis of the September 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that the Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received trace rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The South Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received trace rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received (25). Some parts of Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received JJA rainfall that was normal in the range of 101mm - 125mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot south, Eldama ravine, Narok West and Kilgoris receiving high rainfall totals between 176 - 200mm. Figure 1. September 2022 Rainfall Performance 2.2 Rainfall Forecast for October The rainfall outlook for the month of October is illustrated in figure 2. Most counties including Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive highly depressed rainfall. Pocket areas in the counties of Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado and Narok are forecasted to recieve Near average rainfall. During the month of October, Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Laikipia and Narok are forecasted to received Near average with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is in tandem with expected timely onset of OND rainfall season in the western parts of Kenya. Figure 1. October 2022 Rainfall forecast 2.3 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) September 20212022 The month of September 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to August 2022.The deterioration is associated with poor performance of off- season showers of June-July-August (JJA) season in most ASAL counties except for good performance in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties. No countysub-county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties namely Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit while nine (9) counties including; Mandera, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following nine (9) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Kitui, Kwale and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in September 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in September 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. September 2021 September 2022 Table 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2022 3. Livestock production 3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to minimal precipitation in the rangelands. The current pasture and browse conditions are estimated to last for less than one month in livestock concentration grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse was however good in Baringo, West Pokot, and Lamu counties. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit, Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Kajiado (Central), Kilifi (Ganze), Laikipia (North), Mandera (East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku, Laisamis, North Horr), Meru (Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (East), Wajir (West, Eldas). Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta Embu (Mbeere South), Garissa (Township, Fafi, Daadab), Kajiado (East, North, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (East), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kilome), Mandera (Lafey, Banissa, North, West, South), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Wundanyi, Taveta), Tana River (Bura, Garsen, Galole), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, North), Wajir (North, South), Narok (South, East). Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (West), Kilifi (North), Kitui (South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West) Meru (Igembe South, North Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu (East), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (East, Central), Wajir (Tarbaj, East), West Pokot (Sigor) Narok (North, West). Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama Ravine, South, Tiaty), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga Lunga), Lamu (East, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (South Imenti, Central Imenti), Turkana (South, West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris). Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Meru (North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Nyeri Samburu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Meru (North) Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo West Pokot 3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition ranged between fair to poor across ASAL counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions except for Kilifi and West Pokot counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi West Pokot 3.3 Milk production Milk production was below normal due to the poor forage regime in the counties experiencing drought situation. The JJA season did not generate adequate showers for minor pasture and browse generation. However, Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties recorded above the LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Tharaka Nithi Makueni Laikipia West Pokot Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Samburu West Pokot Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Mandera Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi NB: Turkana had zero readings 3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices remained unstable compared to the previous month owing to poor livestock body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Narok and Tana River reported above the LTA due to increased demand of livestock. Five counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas eight counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Makueni Narok Tana River West Pokot Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kwale West Pokot Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were within the long-term averages. However, majority of the counties hard hit by drought recorded below LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improving trend in Kajiado and Kwale. The following counties, Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Kwale Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Tana River Tana River Wajir Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 3.6 Livestock Mortality Diminished pasture and water resources in most of the ASAL counties led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and accelerating mortalities across all species. High livestock mortalities have been reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa counties. 3.7 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. In the SEMA counties: In Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties, land preparation had started in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along the main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva, Thua Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. 3.7.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASAL counties were high and above average affecting the purchasing power of households.The prices were on increasing trend and thus require close monitoring.As compared to similar period,the prices were unstable as demonstrated in Table 7. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2022 4. WATER RESOURCE ACCESS 4.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties have their distances to water for households currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. The current return distance ranges from 3 kilometers in Baringo to 16.3 kilometers in Mandera as compared to an average LTA of 5 kilometers normally for arid counties. West Pokot had the lowest trekking distance of 2.6 kilometers as compared to Kajiado that had the highest of 8.1 kilometers for Semi-arid counties. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicat Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kajiado Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Wajir Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Makueni Narok West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Samburu Kilifi Kitui Baringo Isiolo West Pokot Baringo Makueni Narok West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir 4.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is increasing with Marsabit having the highest livestock trekking distance at 38.9 kilometers and Baringo with lowest at 8.5 kilometers for Arid counties. Meru North had the highest livestock return trekking distance as compared to Narok and West Pokot that had lowest trekking distance for Semi-arid counties. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Garissa Samburu West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Narok Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu West Pokot Turkana Tana River Nyeri Mandera Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kitui 5. Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). Laikipia had the most favorable terms of trade for arid counties at 52 percent while Turkana had the most unfavorable terms of trade at 16.1percent for arid counties. Kilifi had the most favorable terms of trade at 82 percent and Nyeri unfavorable terms of trade at 30 percent for Semi-arid counties. The unfavorable terms of trade point to worsening drought conditions. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Samburu Baringo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Narok West Pokot Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Isiolo Marsabit Nyeri 6. Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Marsabit, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Samburu, Tana River, Mandera recorded serious to extremely critical situation mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level, crisis coping strategies being employed by households and poor dietary diversity. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri West-Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Kilifi Narok Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kwale Samburu Kitui Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Garissa 7. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of September 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Pokot Alert Kwale Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir, Emergency Recovery 8. Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Commercial and slaughter off-take Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEX 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th September 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.79 63.98 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mogotio improved to above normal vegetation greenness. Central 66.68 Eldama 68.68 68.42 Mogotio 49.57 60.84 North 50.89 65.93 South 50.74 61.82 Tiaty 50.54 63.59 MANDERA County 28.02 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mandera east worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Banissa 35.78 29.18 M East 21.25 16.19 Lafey 30.52 22.76 M North 33.73 27.51 M South 39.54 34.46 M West 32.62 28.64 TURKANA County 37.56 41.54 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at normal vegetation condition during the month September. T Central 36.14 T. East 30.57 46.91 T. Loima 33.32 34.69 T. North 32.45 T. South 37.97 53.19 T. West 53.05 50.65 MARSABIT County 15.57 13.52 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of September. Laisaimis 16.42 14.85 Moyale 17.98 N. Horr 14.27 13.94 19.31 17.93 WAJIR County 31.79 27.91 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Eldas and Wajir West sub county worsened to severe vegetation deficit. W East 38.21 W. Eldas 20.98 W. North 35.46 30.69 W. South 29.84 27.33 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit W. Tarbaj 40.75 W West 20.84 15.74 SAMBURU County 19.69 21.46 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit from Moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East S. North S. West 23.64 35.88 GARISSA County 30.61 27.14 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Fafi and Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 13.92 16.24 Daadab 23.71 22.36 30.88 Ijara 50.22 41.69 Lagdera 11.26 12.35 Dujis 25.92 26.82 ISIOLO County 13.77 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of September. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 12.92 I. South 15.08 15.54 RIVER County 30.92 31.17 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of September. 30.28 32.01 Galole 28.34 29.09 Garsen 33.09 31.76 KAJIADO County 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of September. K. Central 16.91 18.35 K. East 17.96 23.77 K. North 27.29 27.55 K. South 19.53 K. West 36.51 37.12 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West also remained at normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North worsened to Severe Vegetation greenness. L. East 16.45 24.22 L. North 12.84 L. West 46.07 THARAKA NITHI County 41.03 38.38 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of August. Chuka 48.09 41.68 Maara 56.89 47.94 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tharaka 33.31 34.09 POKOT County 59.31 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of August. Kacheliba 46.56 Kapenguria 57.04 67.98 Pokot South 61.38 68.63 Sigor 38.05 49.21 County 30.55 36.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 38.13 35.85 Mbeere North 27.12 38.91 Mbeere South 26.46 32.93 Runyenjes 45.16 42.55 KITUI County 35.04 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the month of September. Kitui Central 22.16 24.82 Kitui East 34.36 Mwingi Central 36.99 35.32 Mwingi North 30.06 29.87 Mwingi West 40.81 Kitui Rural 30.31 Kitui South 37.93 37.78 Kitui West 28.49 32.17 MAKUENI County 36.21 39.95 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to August. Kaiti 36.12 40.65 Kibwezi East 30.68 32.73 Kibwezi West 31.97 36.51 Kilome 20.29 25.98 Makueni 52.37 55.49 Mbooni 46.12 51.19 County 32.99 38.13 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the last month. Buuri 27.62 34.19 Central Imenti 54.11 Igembe Central 29.75 Igembe North 14.81 19.69 Igembe South 42.78 North Imenti 31.74 43.78 South Imenti 65.76 65.19 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania East 34.95 Tigania West 26.11 33.09 NYERI County 40.07 38.94 The county and one of its sub counties noted a stability at normal vegetation greenness. Township improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Kieni 43.96 42.17 Mathira 28.82 27.15 Mukurweini 42.43 38.54 Othaya 43.26 43.93 48.16 45.12 Township 11.91 KILIFI County 25.45 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of September. Ganze worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 21.84 18.85 Kaloleni 32.59 33.93 Magarini 27.81 23.47 Malindi 37.62 Kilifi-North 48.81 Rabai 51.13 50.22 Kilifi-South 48.81 52.97 KWALE County 32.42 The county recorded an improvement to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kinango 27.62 Lungalunga 45.06 52.24 Matuga 47.79 45.46 Msambweni 49.73 County 71.51 61.93 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 68.34 58.22 Lamu West 73.34 64.08 TAITA TAVETA County 24.52 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of August. Mwatate 23.14 24.26 Taveta 22.09 27.96 25.44 27.72 Wundanyi 33.57 NAROK County 42.13 41.46 There was constancy in vegetation cover in the county at normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Narok-East 43.19 33.46 Emurua Dikirr 56.29 65.18 Kilgoris 46.55 52.98 Narok-North 52.51 39.72 Narok-South 34.68 31.83 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Narok-West 40.48 47.59 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Annex 3. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "November_2022'.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to deteriorate in twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four failed consecutive seasons and late onset and poorly distributed 2022 short rains season. The number of people in need of food assistance stands at 4.35 million currently, and the impacts of the anticipated short rains 2022 is expected to lead to increase or decrease of these numbers. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are classified under Alarm drought phase, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 October Rainfall Performance Figure 1.0: Drought Phase Classification Analysis of the October 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the October long term mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 25 of the October LTM. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received very minimal rainfall with Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties receiving less than 5. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received little rains. Lamu County received moderate rainfall between 51 75 . Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off season September-November (SON) rainfall between 76 to 100 of the October LTM, with some areas especially Pokot south receiving 101 110 LTM of the October rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. Figure 2.0. October 2022 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for November. The rainfall outlook for the month of November is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive increased probability of depressed rainfall. Parts of PNW, SEMA and AGP including; Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado, West Pokot, Baringo and Narok are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall during the month of November. Other spots in arid and semi-arid counties are likely to experience typically very dry conditions. These includes; parts of Kitui and Tana River, central parts of Isiolo County and parts of Kilifi and Taita-Taveta counties. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for November 2022. Figure 3. November 2022 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 considers the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2021 and October 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2021 was better than that of 2022 same period. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 20212022 The month of October 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in some parts of the ASALs. The slight improvement is associated with off-season showers of September October November (SON) season mostly in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties stretching all the way to Narok and Kajiado counties. None of the countysub county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following four counties (4); Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following seven (7) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot, Embu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in October 2021 as shown in October 2021 October 2022 (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2022 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi, Marsabit Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Ganze), Kajiado (Central), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab, Balambala) Moderate vegetation deficit Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Kwale, Taita Taveta Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Kajiado (East, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North), Kitui (Rural, West, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (North) Makueni (Kilome), Mandera (West, South) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (North), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Embu (Mbeere South), Kajiado (North, West), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga Lunga, Matuga) Laikipia (East), Lamu (East), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini) Samburu (West) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Loima, Central, West) Wajir (East), Narok (East, North, South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, West Pokot, Embu, Narok Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, Tiaty) Embu (Runyenjes) Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Lamu (West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya, Tetu), Turkana (South, East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok West) normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture and browse deteriorated to Fair condition in West Pokot, Lamu and Baringo which were in good state during the last month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kajiado Baringo West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Narok Laikipia West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, 65 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for cattle while 56 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for goats as shown in Table 3 Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kitui Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kitui Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Laikipia Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month under review was on a decreasing trend as compared to the previous month of September in most of the counties. Only Narok County recorded an improving trend. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Makueni and West Pokot counties recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Narok Garissa Isiolo Kitui Wajir West Pokot Makueni Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Mandera NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices 69 percent of the counties recorded cattle prices below normal with 11 counties reporting worsening trend. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Garissa, Tana River, Kwale and Lamu counties reported above normal LTA but with decreasing trend due to deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties including; Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni and Marsabit reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Tana River Kwale West Pokot Narok Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Samburu Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with 56 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices with a stable and worsening trend except for Lamu which recorded an improvement trend. Consequently, 10 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Garissa Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri 1.4 Crop production CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of the seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. SEMA counties: In Kitui County, land preparation had started in few farms in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Makueni county, the farms were clear and farmers were busy preparing them in anticipation of the October- November-December short rains season. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Tharaka Nithi county, on-farm activities during the month of September were land preparation in readiness for the short rain seasonal onset. 1.4.1 Maize prices In West pokot, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while in the remaining counties 16 were at Stable and 6 recorded improving trend as compared to the previous month. as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, October 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 2.6 kilometers (km) and 7.7 km with West Pokot recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Garissa Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Kajiado Laikipia West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kwale West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in the respective counties. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 6.7 km and 40 kilometers(km) with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.7 km to 8.3 km with Narok recording the lowest and Kitui highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Kajiado Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Turkana West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Baringo Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Makueni Mandera Nyeri 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Kwale West Pokot Baringo Laikipia West Pokot Mandera Tana River Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri Samburu Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Samburu, Turkana, West-Pokot recorded MUAC below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The counties of Kwale, Samburu, Kitui, Garissa, Turkana, Kwale, Makueni, Garissa and West Pokot recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kajiado Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Narok Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Samburu Turkana West-Pokot Kwale Samburu Kitui Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Garissa West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita-Taveta Tana River Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tharaka- Nithi Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of October 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, October 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Emergency Recovery 3.0. Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 3.2 Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support on livestock commercial and slaughter in situ Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.2 Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 3.3 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.4 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.5 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 3.6 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and Sector Technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEXES Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th October 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 63.98 72.67 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which showed slight improvement when compared with the previous month of September. Central 66.68 76.34 Eldama 68.42 71.57 Mogotio 60.84 North 65.93 74.99 South 61.82 72.23 Tiaty 63.59 72.79 MANDERA County 28.02 18.54 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation condition during the last month of September. Mandera South and Mandera West were stable at moderate vegetation deficit Banissa 29.18 16.34 M East 16.19 11.24 Lafey 22.76 13.55 M North 27.51 18.93 M South 34.46 21.95 M West 28.64 22.31 TURKANA County 41.54 44.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at normal vegetation condition during the month of October. Turkana East improved to above normal vegetation greenness. T Central T. East 46.91 52.39 T. Loima 34.69 42.08 T. North 32.84 T. South 53.19 57.73 T. West 50.65 47.45 MARSABIT County 13.52 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of October. Saku improved to moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 14.85 15.79 Moyale 16.08 N. Horr 13.94 15.14 17.93 20.23 WAJIR County 27.91 22.81 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Wajir east and Tarbaj sub counties worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness W East 38.21 26.07 W. Eldas 15.91 W. North 30.69 28.24 W. South 27.33 22.22 W. Tarbaj 40.75 28.93 W West 15.74 14.97 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 21.46 23.22 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit compared to last month of September. Samburu west was stable at normal vegetation greenness. S East 10.59 S. North 30.71 S. West 35.88 49.11 GARISSA County 27.14 23.98 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 16.24 17.46 Daadab 22.36 18.42 30.88 26.79 Ijara 41.69 34.04 Lagdera 12.35 14.67 Dujis 26.82 27.07 ISIOLO County 13.58 13.98 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North I. South 15.54 15.93 TANA RIVER County 31.17 31.29 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of October. 32.01 29.32 Galole 29.09 30.74 Garsen 31.76 33.32 KAJIADO County 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. K. Central 18.35 19.58 K. East 23.77 29.98 K. North 27.55 41.84 K. South 29.76 K. West 37.12 42.99 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 37.63 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West improved to above normal vegetation greenness from at normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North improved to moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 24.22 37.53 L. North L. West 46.07 60.03 THARAKA NITHI County 38.38 37.56 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. Chuka 41.68 46.28 Maara 47.94 49.42 Tharaka 34.09 30.48 WEST POKOT County 59.31 64.25 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an stable when compared with the previous month of September. Kacheliba 61.81 Kapenguria 67.98 73.79 Pokot South 68.63 Sigor 49.21 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 36.17 50.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except Mbeere South which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 35.85 52.94 Mbeere North 38.91 52.19 Mbeere South 32.93 46.84 Runyenjes 42.55 58.95 KITUI County 35.04 37.97 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Generally, there was improvement in vegetation greenness across the sub counties. Kitui Central 24.82 35.77 Kitui East 34.36 37.04 Mwingi Central 35.32 Mwingi North 29.87 30.31 Mwingi 40.81 49.24 Kitui Rural 30.31 33.41 Kitui South 37.78 40.08 Kitui West 32.17 41.33 MAKUENI County 39.95 43.51 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to September. Kaiti 40.65 49.14 Kibwezi East 32.73 35.62 Kibwezi 36.51 38.62 Kilome 25.98 34.94 Makueni 55.49 57.65 Mbooni 51.19 55.01 County 38.13 39.11 The county recorded normal vegetation a stability in vegetation greenness during the month of October. Buuri 34.19 38.84 Central Imenti 53.65 Igembe Central 33.26 Igembe North 19.69 21.35 Igembe South 41.82 North Imenti 43.78 47.13 South Imenti 65.19 63.63 Tigania East 34.95 37.36 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania West 33.09 35.86 NYERI County 38.94 46.65 The county and three of its sub counties noted a stability at normal vegetation greenness. Mathira improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 42.17 44.44 Mathira 27.15 45.88 Mukurweini 38.54 44.96 Othaya 43.93 59.03 45.12 54.59 Township 11.91 32.31 KILIFI County 25.45 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month of October from moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 18.85 12.15 Kaloleni 33.93 22.87 Magarini 23.47 17.92 Malindi 14.86 Kilifi-North 26.07 Rabai 50.22 36.33 Kilifi-South 52.97 40.29 KWALE County 30.07 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kinango 27.62 20.98 Lungalunga 52.24 42.06 Matuga 45.46 41.65 Msambweni 49.73 51.44 County 61.93 49.71 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of September. Lamu East 58.22 43.79 Lamu West 64.08 53.14 TAITA TAVETA County 27.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Wundanyi subcounty improved to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 24.26 21.25 Taveta 27.96 30.13 27.72 27.76 Wundanyi 33.57 35.83 NAROK County 41.46 There an improvement in vegetation cover in the county to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Narok-East 33.46 37.57 Emurua Dikirr 65.18 78.88 Kilgoris 52.98 69.62 Narok-North 39.72 37.97 Narok-South 31.83 40.68 Narok-West 47.59 68.62 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "December_2022.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained critical in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of November 2022. The reported rains in pocket areas of the ASALs are yet to reverse the current drought situation. The situation may slightly improve especially environmental indicators. This is attributable to four failed rain seasons coupled with delayed onset of the OND 2022 rains in most parts of the ASALs. The impact of sustained drought situation has seen the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance stand at 4.35 million. Risks of Acute malnutrition continue to be reported in ASAL counties where 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished continue to access treatment. 1.1 Drought phase classification During the reporting month, only the county of Laikipia slightly improved to Alert phase leaving Thirteen (13) counties namely; Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. Seven (7) counties including; Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 November Rainfall Performance Analysis of the November 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall including Pastoral North East (PNE), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA), Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the November long term mean. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 50 of the October LTM. However, Garissa and Tana River counties received between 76-100 mm of rainfall. The SEMA counties; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received enhanced rainfall with some parts recording between 101-125 mm of rainfall. The CMA counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between 50-75 mm of rainfall. The AGP cluster; Baringo and West Pokot did not receive notable rainfall during the month under review, however, Narok county received good rainfall between 76-100mm of rainfall amounts. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. Figure 2. November 2022 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for December The rainfall outlook for the month of December is illustrated in figure 3. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to received depressed rainfall. Parts of PNE, including Mandera and parts of Wajir and northern eastern parts of Marsabit are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of December. Parts of agropastoral clusters including southern parts of west Pokot and western parts of Baringo counties are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of december. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for December 2022. Figure 3. December 2022 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in November 2022 has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month of October 2022. Fig 4: VCI values for October 2022 and November VCI 2022 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 2022 and November 2022 The month of November 2022 indicated alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties as compared to the previous month of October 2022. The alarming deterioration associated with ongoing poor performance of October-November- December (OND) short rains. Despite the reported rains in pocket areas of the ASAL counties, positive impacts on vegetation rejuvenation is yet to be registered. Two (2) counties including; Isiolo and Kilifi were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following seven counties (7); Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, October 2022 November 2022 Makueni and Meru are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Only Baringo County recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Isiolo Kilifi Wajir (Eldas, West) Samburu (East) Isiolo (North) Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale, Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa, East, Lafey, North, South, West) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Wajir (East, North, South, Tarbaj) Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Lagdera, Dujis) Isiolo (South) Tana River (Bura) Kajiado (Central) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kitui (Mwingi North) Meru (Igembe North) Nyeri (Township) Kilifi (Kaloleni, South) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi) Moderate vegetation deficit Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru Turkana (North) Samburu (North), Garissa (Fafi, Ijara), Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Kajiado (East, North, South) Laikipia (East, North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini), Kilifi (North, Rabai) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (East) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Narok (East) Normal vegetation greenness Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu, Narok Turkana (Central, East, Loima, South, West) Samburu (West), Kajiado (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti) Nyeri (Mathira, Tetu), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (West) Narok (North, South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo Baringo (Central, Eldama, Mogotio, North, South, Tiaty) Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Meru (South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with limited improvement realized compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Pasture deteriorated to poor condition in Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Kieni, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kieni Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kieni Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Taita Taveta County which reported good body condition for cattle only shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta 1.3.3 Milk production In most of the counties, milk production during the month under review showed a decreasing worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October. The following counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River recorded an improving trend. Despite reported rains in some parts of the counties, the impacts on vegetation rejuvenation and milk production is yet to be realized. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. No county recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Tana River Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu West Pokot NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of November remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the markets functioning fairly. 100 percent of the counties cattle prices were below normal with 7 counties reporting worsening trend. However, Kwale county reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. The following counties including Isiolo, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and Wajir reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale West Pokot Tana River Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Tharaka Nithi Samburu Mandera Kwale Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Makueni Narok Tana River Wajir 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with a stable and worsening with 48 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices. Consequently 4 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, November 2022. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kwale Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Makueni Narok West Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Nyeri Kitui Baringo Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta Mandera Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Garissa Samburu Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana West Pokot Baringo Narok Isiolo 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale county, with the onset of the October-November-December season, households engaged in land preparation this month while those who had begun earlier engaging in planting and weeding. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kitui county, land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones. However, the early-planted crops were in germination stage and in good condition, in parts of the county where early planted crops had withered due to moisture stress, farmers were forced to re-plant. In Makueni county, in both the Mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, majority of the farmers had planted, and crops had germinated, main agricultural activity in most of the farms was weeding, gapping and top-dressing. Cases of crop pests - fall army worm infestation was reported in across most parts of the County. In Tharaka Nithi county: planting and first weeding was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at four leaves stage for legumes and knee high for the cereal crops and were of good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Kwale, Kilifi and Marsabit counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while the 14 counties were at Stable and six counties exhibited an improving trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, November 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 14 counties is currently above the LTA. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.1 kilometers (km) and 11.2 km with Laikipia recording lowest and Marsabit recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kwale Narok Garissa Kitui Isiolo Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Nyeri Samburu Tana River Laikipia Isiolo Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Kilifi Marsabit Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance household s to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Wajir Turkana West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in those particular counties. The average trekking distance for livestock in Arid counties ranged between 4.2 km and 30.5 kilometers(km) with West Pokot recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km to 10.2 km with Tharaka Nithi recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Narok Kajiado Garissa Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Laikipia Kitui West Pokot Turkana Baringo Kilifi 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Samburu Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Narok Kilifi Turkana 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. About 61 percent of the ASAL counties recorded above average MUAC values contrary to less than 20 percent when the situation is normal. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Turkana Makueni Marsabit Garissa Kwale Narok Kilifi Samburu Laikipia West-Pokot Mandera Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kwale Samburu Garissa Kwale Laikipia Makueni Garissa Baringo Isiolo Turkana Taita-Taveta 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of November 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Lamu and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Embu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Pokot Alert Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri Meru, Laikipia Alarm Garissa, Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera Emergency Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support to livestock off-take (commercialslaughter in situ) Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of water storage. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th November 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 72.67 56.99 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness however, there was slight decrease in VCI values when compared with the previous month of October. Central 76.34 66.98 Eldama 71.57 66.98 Mogotio 54.37 North 74.99 56.93 South 72.23 57.98 Tiaty 72.79 54.52 MANDERA County 18.54 15.64 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation condition during the last month of November. Mandera South and Mandera West worsened to severe vegetation deficit Banissa 16.34 17.96 M East 11.24 Lafey 13.55 M North 18.93 17.84 M South 21.95 11.89 M West 22.31 17.66 TURKANA County 44.32 34.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T Central 42.83 T. East 52.39 37.27 T. Loima 42.08 36.87 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit T. North 32.84 26.54 T. South 57.73 41.84 T. West 47.45 35.99 MARSABIT County 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of October. Saku worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 15.79 11.77 Moyale 16.08 11.43 N. Horr 15.14 13.19 20.23 12.46 WAJIR County 22.81 13.84 The County worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of October. W East 26.07 14.83 W. Eldas 15.91 W. North 28.24 19.08 W. South 22.22 12.89 W. Tarbaj 28.93 W West 23.22 SAMBURU County 10.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review from moderate vegetation deficit in the last month of October S East 30.71 S. North 49.11 23.26 S. West 23.22 41.47 GARISSA County 23.98 17.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 17.46 11.49 Daadab 18.42 13.77 26.79 21.95 Ijara 34.04 21.71 Lagdera 14.67 10.26 Dujis 27.07 16.67 ISIOLO County 13.98 The county and tow its sub-counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. I. North I. South 15.93 10.46 TANA RIVER County 31.29 20.62 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Bura worsened to severe vegetation deficit 29.32 17.99 Galole 30.74 20.22 Garsen 33.32 KAJIADO County 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. K. Central 19.58 15.44 K. East 29.98 23.79 K. North 41.84 31.99 K. South 29.76 23.97 K. West 42.99 35.29 LAIKIPIA County 37.63 32.04 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. L. East 37.53 31.34 L. North 21.64 L. West 60.03 51.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit THARAKA NITHI County 37.56 26.19 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka subcounty worsened to severe vegetation greenness. Chuka 46.28 39.26 Maara 49.42 41.89 Tharaka 30.48 16.24 WEST POKOT County 64.25 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a decrease when compared with the previous month of October. Kacheliba 61.81 40.59 Kapenguria 73.79 57.72 Pokot South Sigor 38.71 County 50.65 41.19 The county and two its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except manyatta and Runyenjes which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 52.94 Mbeere North 52.19 38.92 Mbeere South 46.84 36.31 Runyenjes 58.95 53.21 KITUI County 37.97 24.67 The county deteriorates to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of October. Kitui Central 35.77 25.99 Kitui East 37.04 23.54 Mwingi Central 22.49 Mwingi North 30.31 19.05 Mwingi West 49.24 34.41 Kitui Rural 33.41 24.26 Kitui South 40.08 Kitui West 41.33 29.65 MAKUENI County 43.51 33.34 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kaiti 49.14 38.34 Kibwezi East 35.62 26.26 Kibwezi West 38.62 31.82 Kilome 34.94 26.93 Makueni 57.65 43.31 Mbooni 55.01 40.73 County 39.11 29.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Buuri 38.84 36.64 Central Imenti 53.65 Igembe Central 33.26 23.05 Igembe North 21.35 14.55 Igembe South 41.82 25.48 North Imenti 47.13 31.15 South Imenti 63.63 Tigania East 37.36 Tigania West 35.86 26.87 NYERI County 46.65 36.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kieni 44.44 34.39 Mathira 45.88 35.64 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mukurweini 44.96 28.22 Othaya 59.03 55.09 54.59 47.22 Township 32.31 12.72 KILIFI County 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month of November from severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 12.15 Kaloleni 22.87 13.62 Magarini 17.92 Malindi 14.86 Kilifi-North 26.07 20.44 Rabai 36.33 21.37 Kilifi-South 40.29 18.14 KWALE County 30.07 17.33 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kinango 20.98 Lungalunga 42.06 24.56 Matuga 41.65 32.65 Msambweni 51.44 40.92 County 49.71 37.41 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of October. Lamu East 43.79 31.76 Lamu West 53.14 40.68 TAITA TAVETA County 27.65 17.95 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit which was a decrease when compared to the previous month of October. Mwatate 21.25 11.83 Taveta 30.13 21.01 27.76 17.94 Wundanyi 35.83 23.79 NAROK County 48.29 There a deterioration in vegetation cover in the county to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Narok-East 37.57 34.05 Emurua Dikirr 78.88 69.31 Kilgoris 69.62 64.44 Narok-North 37.97 43.32 Narok-South 40.68 36.78 Narok-West 68.62 58.21 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery. Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2023": {
            "January_2023.pdf": "JANUARY 2023 1.0 DROUGHT SITUATION OVERVIEW The drought situation remains critical in 22 of the 23 ASAL counties due to the late onset and poor performance of the much-anticipated October to December 2022 short rains, coupled with four previous consecutive failed rainfall seasons. Currently, nine arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties namely; Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo, Kitui and Kajiado are in Alarm drought phase while 13 counties are in Alert drought phase. These include Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Nyeri and Kwale. Only Embu county is currently classified in Normal drought phase. Taita Taveta, Kwale, Garissa and Tana River improved from Alarm to Alert phase due to light showers received during the last week of December. Conversely, the drought situation in Baringo Pokot counties deteriorated from Normal to Alert drought phase. High rates of children at risk of malnutrition noted Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. rains assessment conducted in July 2022 had projected million people would require relief assistance by December. A multi-agency assessment of the 2022 short rains season is ongoing to ascertain its impact on food security. The assessment team comprises representatives from Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification December 2022 1.1 DROUGHT OBSERVED INDICATORS 1.1.1 December Rainfall Performance Analysis of the December 2022 rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North East, South Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters received between 0 to 75 of the December Long Term Mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 50 to 75 of the December LTM. However, parts of Garissa and Tana River counties received very minimal rainfall - 10mm. The South East marginal agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received depressed rainfall, with some parts recording between 26mm to 75 mm of rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu - received inadequate rainfall. The agropastoral cluster including Baringo, Narok and West Pokot, received notable amount of rainfall between 76mm to 125mm of rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2023 As illustrated in Figure 3, the rainfall outlook for January forecasts occassional rainfall in lower parts of the ASALs are, especially coastal marginal agrilture areas including Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. The South East marginal agriculture counties including Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties are forecasted to receive light showers while agropastoral counties of Narok and Kajiado are forecasted to receive occassional rainfall. The upper parts of the ASALs, including Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are expected to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 2: December 2022 Rainfall Performance Figure 3: January 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.2 VEGETATION CONDITION December 2022 recorded alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (November 2022). The deterioration is attributed to poor performance of the October to December short rains. Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Three counties - Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo - recorded extreme vegetation deficit while three others - Mandera, Samburu and Kwale recorded severe deficit. 12 counties including Turkana, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River have moderate vegetation deficit, hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Five counties - Baringo, Embu, Makueni, Lamu and Narok - recorded Normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2022 is provided in Table 13 while Table 1 shows the situation in each county disaggregated by sub-county. Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No.) Extreme Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera (East, South) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Saku, North Horr) Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West) Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South) Nyeri (Township), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera Samburu Kwale Mandera (Banissa, Lafey, North, West) Samburu (East) Garissa (Balambala, Dujis) Kajiado (Central, North) Laikipia (North) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Moderate vegetation deficit Turkana Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo (Tiaty) Turkana (East, Loima, North, South, West) Samburu (North, West) Garissa (Daadab) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Kajiado (East, South, West) Laikipia (East,) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Sigor) Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North) Makueni (Kilome) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti) Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Narok (East, South) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Makueni Narok Baringo (Eldama, Mogotio, North, South) Turkana (Central) Garissa (Fafi, Ijara) Tana River (Garsen) Laikipia (West) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) 1.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most ASAL counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The condition was below normal, with no improvement realised when compared with the previous month. The pasture and browse is not expected to last long due to high concentration of livestock in grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse deteriorated to poor in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado and Kwale counties. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in December 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kitui (Central, Mwingi West, Rural, South, West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Tigania East, Tigania West) Kwale (Msambweni) Lamu (East, West) Narok (North, West) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo (Central) Embu (Mbeere North) Makueni (Makueni) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition ranged from poor to fair in most ASAL counties except Lamu, Makueni and Taita Taveta counties which reported good body condition for cattle as shown in Table 3. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3: Livestock body condition in December 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Tana River West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Makueni 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of December remained stable in most of the counties compared to November. Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving milk production trend. The current milk production status in 21 of the 23 counties is below average compared to normal years. Table 4: Milk production trends in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening production Tharaka Nithi Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Mandera Narok West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot NB: Turkana had zero readings. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Cattle prices in majority of the counties remained stable in December compared to the previous month, with majority of the counties continuing to record below normal prices while four counties reported a worsening trend. Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, and Mandera counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle prices Tana River Pokot Garissa Kitui Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kwale Mandera 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in ASAL counties were generally poor, with most ASAL counties recording below long term average prices. However, most counties recorded an improving trend compared to November as result of regeneration of pasture and browse as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana River Kitui Kwale Narok West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Wajir Narok Mandera Marsabit Garissa Baringo Kwale 1.4 CROP PRODUCTION Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: The crop condition in Kilifi County remained poor due to moisture stress, with minimal to no harvest expected as most of the crop is wilting coupled with Fall Army Warm infestation. There was also delayed and poor temporal rainfall distribution, which is likely to lead to crop failure. Farmers in some areas of Kwale County were weeding in December having planted earlier and received some rains. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting owing to loss of seeds following a dry spell immediately after planting. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The area planted in Kitui County was lower than the long term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. However, majority of crops were at knee heightflowering stage and in fair condition. Weeding for the season was also ongoing across the livelihood zones. In both the mixed farming and marginal Mixed farming livelihood zones of Makueni County, crops were at different stages, with maize ranging from knee-height to tasseling stage. Cases of fall army worm infestation were reported across all livelihood zone. In some areas, crops germinated and dried up following persistent drought and aridity while in some places there was completely no onset of the short rains. In Tharaka Nithi County, weeding and pest control by spraying was ongoing. About 90 of the farmers had planted considering the county relies on the short rains for food production. Crops were at four leaves development stage for legumes and knee height for cereal crops and in good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges, particularly those related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Tana River, West Pokot and Makueni counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend during the month under review while the remaining countie were stable and improving trend compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The maize prices were above long term average. Table 7: Maize prices in December 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households is currently above long term average in 16 counties. However, the trend is generally improving compared to the previous month. Distances in arid counties ranged between 3.3 and 16.2 kilometres, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Marsabit Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Tana River West Pokot Makueni Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 2.2 and 6.2 kilometres, with Nyeri (Kieni) recording the lowest and Kajiado the highest. Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tana River counties showed an improving trend as shown in Table 8. Table 8: Distance from households to main water sources in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househo lds to water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Garissa Narok Samburu Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Garissa 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above long term average and on an improving trend in most ASAL counties compared to the previous month. However, trekking distances in Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera and Marsabit counties are on a worsening trend due to poor performance of short rains seasons. The average trekking distance in arid counties ranged between 5 and 33.1 kilometres, with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest. The average trekking distance in semi- arid counties ranged between 3.2 and 8.1 kilometres, with Nyeri recording the lowest and Taita Taveta highest. Table 9 shows the trend of distances for livestock from grazing areas to water main source. Table 9: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Kwale Samburu Baringo Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi to main water sources Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Tana River Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Mandera Marsabit 1.6 TERMS OF TRADE Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long term average. The terms of trade are stable compared to the previous (November). Table 10: Terms of Trade in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Kilifi Turkana Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Tana River 1.7 HEALTH AND NUTRITION High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. In addition, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference (MUAC) measurement below long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening in trend during the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across ASAL counties based on MUAC measurement. Table 11: Children at risk of malnutrition in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Tana River Makueni Marsabit Garissa Narok Kwale Samburu Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Turkana West- Pokot Kitui Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Wajir Kwale Samburu Makueni Isiolo Turkana Taita- Taveta Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are in Alarm drought phase. Another 13 counties - Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot and Nyeri - are in Alert drought phase, while Embu is in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at the end of December 2022. Table 12: Drought phase classification in December 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Alert Garissa Narok Tana River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Alarm Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households that are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 2. Livestock sector: Provision of livestock feeds and supplements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Support water trucking; rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of fuel subsidies to motorised boreholes; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion; provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhanced hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th December 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 VCI-3 month as at 25th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 56.99 37.83 The entire county and four sub-counties recorded Normal vegetation greenness. However, this was a worsening trend compared to November. Central 66.98 53.62 Eldama 66.98 44.62 Mogotio 54.37 37.22 North 56.93 38.15 South 57.98 39.26 Tiaty 54.52 33.46 MANDERA County 15.64 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition at severe vegetation deficit. Mandera South and Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. Banissa 17.96 17.84 M East Lafey 10.66 M North 17.84 16.16 M South 11.89 M West 17.66 10.93 TURKANA County 34.86 25.32 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation deficit T Central 42.83 36.64 T. East 37.27 24.19 T. Loima 36.87 26.77 T. North 26.54 20.54 T. South 41.84 28.21 T. West 35.99 25.57 MARSABIT County The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. Laisaimis 11.77 Moyale 11.43 N. Horr 13.19 12.46 WAJIR County 13.84 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. W East 14.83 W. Eldas W. North 19.08 W. South 12.89 W. Tarbaj W West SAMBURU County 15.38 The county maintained remained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu West worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness. S East 11.31 S. North 23.26 16.45 S. West 41.47 28.41 GARISSA County 17.59 27.59 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition index to moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in December. Lagdera worsened to extreme vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 11.49 17.72 Daadab 13.77 20.79 21.95 36.56 Ijara 21.71 37.62 Lagdera 10.26 Dujis 16.67 22.13 ISIOLO County The county and all sub counties maintained extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North I. South 10.46 TANA RIVER County 20.62 29.21 The county and sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit in December. Garsen improved to normal vegetation greenness. 17.99 20.64 Galole 20.22 30.54 Garsen 35.66 KAJIADO County 23.87 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and Kajiado North recorded severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 15.44 14.07 K. East 23.79 24.52 K. North 31.99 19.86 K. South 23.97 21.14 K. West 35.29 31.42 LAIKIPIA County 32.04 24.27 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable. Laikipia North worsened to severe vegetation deficit. L. East 31.34 32.13 L. North 21.64 15.37 L. West 51.85 37.15 THARAKA NITHI County 26.19 31.81 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Chuka 39.26 44.71 Maara 41.89 39.42 Tharaka 16.24 24.52 POKOT County 28.24 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 40.59 18.59 Kapenguria 57.72 40.29 Pokot South 49.04 Sigor 38.71 23.33 County 41.19 47.79 The county and three its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except Mbeere north which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 42.24 Mbeere North 38.92 52.05 Mbeere 36.31 48.56 South Runyenjes 53.21 41.51 KITUI County 24.67 33.93 The county maintained moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, five sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 25.99 37.34 Kitui East 23.54 33.73 Mwingi Central 22.49 28.51 Mwingi North 19.05 Mwingi 34.41 36.53 Kitui Rural 24.26 43.12 Kitui South 38.74 Kitui West 29.65 37.15 MAKUENI County 33.34 46.06 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness. Kaiti 38.34 43.54 Kibwezi East 26.26 41.52 Kibwezi 31.82 48.74 Kilome 26.93 30.65 Makueni 43.31 56.32 Mbooni 40.73 48.77 County 29.98 32.83 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable compared to November. Buuri 36.64 41.45 Central Imenti 32.14 Igembe Central 23.05 29.25 Igembe North 14.55 25.97 Igembe South 25.48 25.35 North Imenti 31.15 27.09 South Imenti 31.19 Tigania East 36.08 Tigania 26.87 41.11 NYERI County 36.65 24.43 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit up from normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kieni 34.39 29.61 Mathira 35.64 12.62 Mukurweini 28.22 16.28 Othaya 55.09 26.78 47.22 24.62 Township 12.72 KILIFI County 20.78 The vegetation condition in the county improved to Ganze 12.55 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme vegetation deficit in December. Kaloleni 13.62 12.75 Magarini 24.58 Malindi 24.48 Kilifi-North 20.44 32.45 Rabai 21.37 16.44 Kilifi-South 18.14 KWALE County 17.33 17.46 The county recorded stability trend in vegetation greenness at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 11.23 Lungalunga 24.56 22.02 Matuga 32.65 30.62 Msambweni 40.92 36.13 County 37.41 44.57 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was improving trend when compared to the previous month of November. Lamu East 31.76 36.37 Lamu West 40.68 49.31 TAITA TAVETA County 17.95 22.88 The county and two sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit up from severe vegetation deficit, which was a decrease compared to November. Mwatate 11.83 Taveta 21.01 25.09 17.94 22.28 Wundanyi 23.79 NAROK County 48.29 38.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in December. Narok-East 34.05 Emurua Dikirr 69.31 60.65 Kilgoris 64.44 54.87 Narok-North 43.32 37.59 Narok-South 36.78 27.42 Narok-West 58.21 41.82 Table 14: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies SUMMARY OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside Figure 5. Drought Phase Classification.",
            "February_2023.pdf": "February 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in 22 out of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2022 short rains coupled with four consecutive failed rainfall seasons. The OND 2022 rains were characterised by late onset, poor spatial distribution early cessation. The month of January has registered increasing temperatures across the country further exacerbating the situation. Marsabit county drifted from Alarm phase to Emergency phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. Thirteen counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase. While one (1) county; Tharaka Nithi County is in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties and the assessment is ongoing to determine the cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, January 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 January Rainfall Performance The analysis of the January 2023 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive rainfall including Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture Pastoral North livelihood clusters. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa. Garissa received about 16 50mm of rainfall especially in Dujis subcounty. Turkana county experienced dry condition. Marsabit county in Pastoral North West especially, Saku subcounty received considerable amount of rainfall between 16 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very depressed rainfall with some parts recording between 16 - 25 mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties experienced hot and dry condition. The Agro Pastoral cluster including; Narok county received notable rainfall during the month under review of between 51 75mm of rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance for the month of January 2023. Figure 2. January 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for February The rainfall outlook for the month of February is illustrated in figure 3. Evidently, most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya will be generally under sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including; Taita Taveta and Kwale counties are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for February 2023. Figure 3. February 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Relates the vegetation condition Index (VCI) in January 2023 with that in January 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2022 was better in relation to that of 2023 same period. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) January 20222023 The month of January 2023 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2022. Four (4) counties including; Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and Isiolo were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following one county (1); Samburu is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following two (2) counties including; Kitui and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following six (6) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2023 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2022 as shown in (Figure 2). A January 2022 January 2023 summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of January 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2023 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse condition continue to deteriorate as temperature increase in the ASALs. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse is expected to get depleted in less than one month given high rate of evapo- Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Mandera (East, Lafey, North, South, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Laikipia (North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Rabai) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Mogotio, South, Tiaty), Turkana (Central, East, Loima, North, South, West), Samburu (West), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Galole), Kajiado (Central, East, West), Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Sigor), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Kitui, Narok Baringo (North), Garissa (Fafi, Dujis), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (East), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South), Nyeri (Mathira, Township), Kilifi (Magarini, North), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (East), Narok (East, South, West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Baringo (Central, Eldama), Garissa (Ijara), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West,), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Lamu (West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North) transpiration induced by high temperatures. Pasture and browse deteriorated to poor condition in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit Narok Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kilifi counties which reported good body condition for cattle only as indicated in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2023 Garissa Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Baringo Narok Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Narok Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Makueni Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of January showed a decline in trend as compared to the previous month of December in most of the counties. The following counties including Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kitui recorded an improving trend while Kitui, Kwale, Narok and Makueni were above normal. The OND short rainfall season in the above-mentioned counties, regenerated some pasture and browse, impacting positively in milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 18 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Taveta Baringo Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Nyeri Tana River Makueni Marsabit NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4. Livestock mortality Livestock mortality was noted in number of counties as indicated in the table below. The most affected counties with above- normal livestock mortality rates included Marsabit, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir and Mandera. Table 5 .0. Shows livestock mortality. Table 5.0. Showing livestock mortalities across 23 ASAL counties of Kenya. Source data: State department of livestock records. County Species Total Population Livestock Deaths Percentage Livestock Mortality Marsabit Marsabit Marsabit 535, 972 Marsabit Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Turkana Turkana Turkana Overall 52,822,469 2,613,008 1.3.5 Cattle prices The cattle prices in the month of January worsened in 9 counties of Lamu, Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri, West Pokot, Marsabit and Wajir compared to the previous month due to poor livestock body condition. 78 percent of the ASAL Countys cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The following counties including Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana reported a stable trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Tana River Makueni Kilifi Baringo Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Garissa Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Baringo Nyeri West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of December. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with counties of Baringo, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri, Wajir and Marsabit reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, January 2023. Three counties recorded an improving trend. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Narok Baringo Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Garissa Narok Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Baringo 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kilifi County, the cassava in the farms recorded fair condition, while 2022 short rains crop of maize, green grams and cowpeas recording poor condition following poor performance of the season. Vegetables, water melons and few pineapples and mangoes were the main crop harvested during the month under review. In some areas in Kwale county, Maize, cowpeas and green grams were the main crops grown during the short rains season. Maize was at tasseling stage with at least 80 percent showing moisture stress in both livelihood zones. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting because their seeds dried up owing to a dry spell that occurred immediately after planting. According to the just concluded short rains assessment, maize production was estimated at only 25 percent which was equivalent of 69,410 90-kg bags compared with 27,741 bags normally produced. Cowpeas and green grams were still being harvested although the production was projected at 50 percent each. Approximately 9,655 and 12,492 90-kg bags of green grams and cowpeas were projected to be harvested in comparison with 19,310 and 24,984 90-kg bags for the respective crops in the five-year long-term average. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The major crops planted in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone were green grams, millet, sorghum, cowpeas and maize. The Mixed Farming livelihood zone planted; maize, beans, pigeon peas, green grams and cowpeas. Area planted was lower than the long-term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. Majority of crops were in flowering, fruit filling or harvesting stages and in fair to poor condition. Total crop failure was also experienced in parts of Mwingi West, Kitui West and Mwingi North sub counties. Reported cases of fall and African army worm infestation was reported across the livelihood zones. In Makueni county, both the Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone, crops were at different stages of growth with maize having reached physiological maturity. Maize production will be adversely affected since the rainfall cessation was earlier causing the crop to be moisture-stressed at the critical time of tasseling silking stage. The production will be below average in most parts of the maize growing zones with some places like Kiima Kiu Kalanzoni and some parts of Kee and Mukaa wards realizing total crop failure. Production of green grams and cowpeas is expected to be good since the crops had attained physiological maturity by the time of rainfall cessation. There was also infestation among pulses in the Marginal Mixed Farming zone in areas such as Masongaleni. Pulses such as cowpeas and green grams had flourished in the Marginal mixed livelihood zone. Beans had performed well in the Mixed farming zone and good yields are expected. In Tharaka Nithi county, harvesting, winnowing and was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at maturity. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. Pulses planted during this season were green grams, cow peas and pigeon peas while as cereals like millet, sorghum and maize have been planted in the Mixed and Rain fed cropping Livelihood Zones. 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Marsabit and Wajir the price of maize was at a worsening trend while the remaining countie were at Stable (16) and improving (2) trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Tana River Makueni Baringo Garissa Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Marsabit 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source due to water trucking interventions. Distances to household water access in arid counties ranged between 3.40 16.4 kilometers (km) with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. While in semi-arid counties, the distance range between 3 km to 6.8km was recorded by Nyeri and KajiadoTharaka Nithi respectively. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2023 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distanc e from househ olds to water sources Garissa Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Narok Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Garissa 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for four counties which are on a stable trend due to poor performance of OND short rains. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 8.3 kilometers and 28.5 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.8 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru North highest. However, there was a slight improvement in Marsabit as a result of the ongoing water trucking interventions. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Pokot Tana River Baringo Garissa Narok Marsabit Garissa Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Over 95 percent of ASAL counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend in 13 counties and five counties depicting a stable condition. Table 10.0 shows the terms of trade across 23 ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Narok Baringo Garissa Makueni Kilifi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Tana River Baringo Marsabit Narok Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The counties of; Kilifi, Kitui, Kilifi, Samburu, Narok and West-Pokot recorded Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Tharaka Nithi River Makueni Garissa Marsabit Turkana Taveta Kilifi Narok West- Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Garissa Kilifi Narok Nyeri Taita- Taveta Baringo Makueni Marsabit Tana River Turkana Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12: sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of January 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase, while one (1) county Tharaka Nithi is in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. One (1) county, Marsabit is in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, one (1) county reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Tharaka Nithi Alert Kwale, Narok Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot Alarm Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Emergency Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Scaling up the interventions in terms of food aid and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Livestock off-takes (commercial and slaughter) Water sector Support scale up water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th January 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 37.83 32.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit and its three sub counties including Mogotio, Baringo South and Tiaty Central 53.62 54.95 Eldama 44.62 50.32 Mogotio 37.22 26.06 North 38.15 35.47 South 39.26 30.18 Tiaty 33.46 27.99 MANDERA County 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month under review. Most of the sub counties worsened during the month of January Banissa 17.84 10.62 M East Lafey 10.66 M North 16.16 M South M West 10.93 TURKANA County 25.32 23.18 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Turkana central worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T Central 36.64 29.05 T. East 24.19 20.04 T. Loima 26.77 22.63 T. North 20.54 22.25 T. South 28.21 22.88 T. West 25.57 25.01 MARSABIT County The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit during the month of January. Laisaimis Moyale N. Horr WAJIR County The county and all of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month of January. W East W. Eldas W. North W. South W. Tarbaj W West SAMBURU County 15.38 17.82 The county maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu North worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit. S East 11.31 15.69 S. North 16.45 18.23 S. West 28.41 25.17 GARISSA County 27.59 31.81 The county experienced stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of January. Balambala 17.72 19.57 Daadab 20.79 23.85 36.56 38.09 Ijara 37.62 51.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Lagdera Dujis 22.13 ISIOLO County The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North I. South TANA RIVER County 29.21 28.12 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month January. Bura worsened to extreme vegetation deficit 20.64 18.78 Galole 30.54 26.83 Garsen 35.66 36.86 KAJIADO County 23.87 25.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January K. Central 14.07 23.74 K. East 24.52 27.03 K. North 19.86 36.67 K. South 21.14 16.78 K. West 31.42 34.01 LAIKIPIA County 24.27 22.36 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia East recorded an improvement in vegetation condition during the month of January L. East 32.13 40.21 L. North 15.37 15.46 L. West 37.15 26.66 THARAKA NITHI County 31.81 54.93 The county and its sub counties recorded a general improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness Chuka 44.71 Maara 39.42 70.68 Tharaka 24.52 45.05 POKOT County 28.24 24.74 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of December. Kacheliba 18.59 15.14 Kapenguria 40.29 35.67 Pokot South 49.04 44.68 Sigor 23.33 21.18 County 47.79 64.93 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of January Manyatta 42.24 68.19 Mbeere North 52.05 65.39 Mbeere South 48.56 62.79 Runyenjes 41.51 68.25 KITUI County 33.93 45.03 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January up from moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 37.34 55.42 Kitui East 33.73 42.75 Mwingi Central 28.51 36.56 Mwingi North 37.46 Mwingi West 36.53 40.28 Kitui Rural 43.12 70.13 Kitui South 38.74 49.02 Kitui West 37.15 56.69 MAKUENI County 46.06 64.07 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Kaiti 43.54 70.87 vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. Kibwezi East 41.52 63.35 Kibwezi West 48.74 62.09 Kilome 30.65 37.88 Makueni 56.32 75.59 Mbooni 48.77 70.83 County 32.83 52.52 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of January from moderate vegetation deficit Buuri 41.45 54.21 Central Imenti 32.14 63.39 Igembe Central 29.25 46.17 Igembe North 25.97 36.49 Igembe South 25.35 48.67 North Imenti 27.09 61.23 South Imenti 31.19 63.39 Tigania East 36.08 55.24 Tigania West 41.11 68.18 NYERI County 24.43 51.77 The county and four of its sub counties recorded serious improvement in vegetation condition from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation greenness Kieni 29.61 53.36 Mathira 12.62 48.24 Mukurweini 16.28 52.93 Othaya 26.78 52.87 24.62 Township 39.38 KILIFI County 20.78 29.85 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Magarini and Kilifi North improved to normal vegetation greenness Ganze 12.55 22.95 Kaloleni 12.75 10.15 Magarini 24.58 35.91 Malindi 24.48 30.52 Kilifi-North 32.45 37.13 Rabai 16.44 11.84 Kilifi-South KWALE County 17.46 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the month of January from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness Kinango 11.23 20.17 Lungalunga 22.02 28.59 Matuga 30.62 30.29 Msambweni 36.13 39.89 County 44.57 52.98 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness Lamu East 36.37 45.55 Lamu West 49.31 57.27 TAITA TAVETA County 22.88 28.87 The county and all of its sub counties remained constant at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review Mwatate 25.75 Taveta 25.09 23.87 22.28 32.39 Wundanyi 28.87 NAROK County 38.22 46.85 The county recorded the same vegetation greenness condition at normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Narok-East 38.93 vegetation greenness, however, Narok South, East and West recorded slight improvements Emurua Dikirr 60.65 71.85 Kilgoris 54.87 Narok-North 37.59 54.47 Narok-South 27.42 38.47 Narok-West 41.82 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2023.pdf": "APRIL 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview Despite the reported rains in most parts of the country in the last Dekad of March, the rains are yet to impact on production systems. The drought situation remains critical in twenty-two (21) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of March 2023. The number of people in need of assistance still stands at 4.4 million currently following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment. counties namely Marsabit Turkana remain Emergency drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely Isiolo, Mandera, Kajiado, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Eleven (11) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. While two (2) counties; West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 970,214 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,179 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. The reported rains in most of the Arid counties are associated with flush floods which had negative impacts on the local livelihoods and critical facilities like roads. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 March Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates several parts of the ASALs counties received moderate amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received good amounts of rainfall. South Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of March. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did not receive good amounts of rainfall as compared to other clusters as shown figure Figure 2. March 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for April The rainfall outlook for the month of April is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya are forecasted to be under Near Average rainfall to Near Average to above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall with Kitui and Makueni counties falling under Near Average to above average rainfall. The Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near-Average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for April 2023. 1.1.3. Impacts of Rainfall during the month Flash floods were reported in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok, Taita Taveta and Wajir Counties. Flooding in Marsabit affected 1200 households (HH) and 2000 livestock deaths in North Horr while 1500 HH and 800 livestock deaths were affected in Moyale sub-county (Golbo ward). Additional 200HH and 150HH were affected in Laisamis and Saku sub-counties respectively. Floods in Garissa led to displacement of 80HH in Jilango and 28HH in barfin and cut off the road from Jilango to Modogashe Figure 3. April 2023 Rainfall forecast during the month. In Isiolo, floods occurred in Kinna North and Kinna South locations which caused the submerge of villages and reported death of livestock deaths and displacement of 700 Households during the month. In Mandera, floods were reported around River Daua, Rhamu, Elwak, Finjaru and Rhamu Dimtu that led to displacements, of 150 Households during the week. Tana River county reported flash floods in Maramtu farms in Madogo. River Tana water levels were reported to be fluctuating between 3.9 and 4.1 metres which depicts high probability of flooding risks as the rains continue. Thus, need for closer monitoring and sensitization of communities along the river belt to move to safer grounds. Samburu reported floods in Samburu East in Naishamunya sub-location where 800 households were displaced and 625 small stock and households goods swept away while heavy rains in Wajir North and the Ethiopian highlands resulted in flash floods in parts of Wajir North and Eldas sub-counties that caused loss of lives, livestock and property and; displacement of persons, damage to school infrastructure and closure of some schools. Taita Taveta reported flash floods in Mwatate sub-county while heavy rains in Turkana rendered roads in Kibish impassable during the month. Heavy rains in Narok caused swelling of river Suswa which disrupted transport along the Narok-Nairobi highway and river Narok that busted and caused flooding in Narok town while Mugor river busted its banks and destroyed a bridge in addition to causing displacement of approximately 200 households. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2023 with that of the previous month of February 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of February 2023 due to the rains received. The reported rains are expected to impact positively on vegetation regeneration. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of February and March The month of March 2023 indicated an improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2023. The improvement in vegetation condition is associated with impacts of early onset of the March April May (MAM) rainfall season which has led to minor regeneration of vegetation in most counties. Two (2) counties including; Mandera and Tana River were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following three (3) counties; Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit while three (3) counties including; Turkana, Kajiado and Kitui recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, February 2023 March 2023 Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2023 is better as compared to the previous month, February 2023 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Mandera, Tana River, Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku), Wajir (East), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Taita Taveta (Taveta), Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (South), Kitui (Mwingi Central), Kilifi (North, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Mwatate) Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, Central), Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (North), Laikipia (North, West), Kajiado (East), Kitui (Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (Kaloleni, South, Magarini, Rabai), Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Kajiado, Kitui, Baringo (South, Tiaty), Turkana (Loima), Samburu (West), Laikipia (East), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere North), Kitui (Kitui South), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe, South), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Turkana (West, North), Garissa (Township, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni, Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Kibwezi west), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok east, Narok north, Narok south, Narok west) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture remained poor in 65 percent of arid and semi-arid counties while browse condition remained poor in 30 percent in arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of February. The current pasture and browse condition are under generation process following the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Pasture and browse have started sprouting in majority of the counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was poor at 43 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 4 percent in the arid and semi-arid counties. The body condition for goats cattle was poor at 30 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 17 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is slight improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of March showed a slight improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of February in most of the counties. Six counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend while Makueni and Narok counties milk production was above normal. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri Pokot Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (73 percent) of cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however an improving trend has been noted across some counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok and Samburu as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Tana River Makueni West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of February. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with only two counties of Kilifi and Nyeri reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties namely Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Kwale Narok Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Tana River Turkana Wajir Narok Garissa Kajiado Makueni Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Kwale Nyeri 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 8 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Land preparation ongoing Harvesting of Pineapples Kwale Minimal land preparation had begun South Marginal Agriculture Kitui Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones Makueni Farmers were busy planting drought-resistant and early maturing crops varieties as per the advisories developed Tharaka Nithi Land preparing and planting was the main engagements in the county, for early planters, crops were at the germination stage Increased incidences of pests especially quelea infestation on farms 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, maize prices were above avarage across ASAL counties due to consecutive failed seasons as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Makueni Kajiado Wajir Turkana Tharaka Nithi Kitui Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Samburu 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 15 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.3 kilometers (km) and 16.3 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. In semi-arid the distance ranged between 2.4km to 9.7km recorded by Narok and Meru counties respectively. 11 counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Wajir showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2023 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Samburu Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Makueni Mandera Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA in 13 counties. The following counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Wajir, West Pokot and Baringo recorded an improvement in trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 22 kilometers and 8.7 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Mandera highest. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.3 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 11.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Wajir Baringo Garissa Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was below the long-term average as a result of low purchasing power of households across all ASAL counties. This resulted in high commodity prices, however, an improving trend has been noted in seven counties of Embu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi as shown in Table 12. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kilifi Baringo Wajir Narok Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Kwale Nyeri 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Nyeri, Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit, Turkana, Embu, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa and Taita Taveta counties recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Twelve counties recorded a worsening in trend in the month under review while Kilifi, Lamu, Meru and Narok recorded an improving trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Mandera Tana River Makueni Marsabit Turkana Kwale Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi Garissa Taita Taveta Kilifi Laikipia Narok West- Pokot Kilifi Narok Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Baringo Garissa Laikipia Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kitui Taita-Taveta Kwale Makueni Samburu Turkana 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 14 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of March 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties including Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties namely West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Two (2) counties, Marsabit and Turkana are in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded a stable trend, while four (4) counties reported a worsening trend due to delayed onset of the long rains in these four counties. Overall, the drought situation remains grave in twenty-one (21) ASAL counties. Table 14.0: Drought phase classification, March 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Alert Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, Taita Taveta, Alarm Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, Kitui Emergency Marsabit, Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought and other shocks. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th March 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 44.76 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 69.62 83.34 North 50.22 66.27 South 35.84 41.16 Ravine 74.68 98.16 Mogotio 28.23 31.24 Tiaty 40.57 48.98 MANDERA County -18.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month of March. Lafey -10.8 -24.87 North -11.72 -31.71 Banissa -5.49 -22.63 -3.37 -13.97 South -5.31 -5.13 -12.89 TURKANA County 32.39 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit 23.78 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Turkana West and Turkana North improved to above normal vegetation greenness. South 25.35 27.55 Loima 30.09 36.34 Central 27.56 39.97 57.65 North 36.79 57.35 MARSABIT County 10.93 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was an improvement from extreme vegetation greenness during the previous month of February. Laisamis 12.83 Moyale North Horr 12.06 WAJIR County The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to moderate vegetation deficit. Tarbaj 10.69 15.41 North 12.86 South 10.88 10.46 14.25 32.87 Eldas 10.67 26.57 SAMBURU County 23.06 25.04 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month under review. Samburu west improved to normal vegetation deficit. 17.93 17.88 North 26.37 29.85 32.66 37.76 GARISSA County 29.07 24.02 The county experienced a stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of March. Township and Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 17.82 14.78 Township 52.15 63.11 Ijara 61.11 69.82 27.34 13.04 Lagdera 19.26 Dadaab 16.41 ISIOLO County 12.13 17.46 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. North 10.04 16.19 South 15.31 TANA RIVER County 18.53 The county and all two of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month March. 12.16 Galole 11.78 -4.08 Garsen 28.16 19.42 KAJIADO County 36.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit. Central 43.16 28.55 26.27 North 64.72 86.09 South 17.04 16.98 50.79 67.52 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit LAIKIPIA County 27.32 30.53 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of February. 49.88 North 21.87 27.57 27.26 26.75 THARAKA NITHI County 72.57 79.33 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Chuka 86.04 91.07 Maara 107.92 127.25 Tharaka 56.19 59.59 POKOT County 38.05 51.61 The county improved to above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 29.77 Kapenguria 46.67 60.19 Pokot south 56.38 72.23 Sigor 35.03 48.56 County 71.68 68.11 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Manyatta 101.54 120.12 Mbeere north 60.93 49.11 Mbeere south 62.04 51.91 Runyenjes 98.35 112.98 KITUI County 45.21 39.46 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at normal vegetation greenness during the month of March when compared with the previous month of February Kitui central 65.35 66.26 Kitui east 37.63 27.57 Kitui rural 84.68 94.58 Kitui south 51.62 48.14 Kitui west 68.89 73.27 Mwingi central 16.16 Mwingi north 38.02 31.79 Mwingi west 34.46 23.38 MAKUENI County 73.85 76.45 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 91.26 Kibwezi east 79.08 Kibwezi west 64.02 59.25 Kilome 38.34 30.76 Makueni 86.62 94.07 Mbooni 84.76 88.88 County 68.53 74.92 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March Buuri 72.82 87.41 Central Imenti 102.83 129.14 Igembe central 48.17 40.92 Igembe north 33.38 23.34 Igembe south 54.87 North Imenti 98.66 123.64 South Imenti 113.7 143.2 Tigania east 64.62 65.01 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania west 89.76 103.84 NYERI County 93.65 119.36 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Kieni 88.53 110.55 Mathira 101.38 131.31 Mukurweini 99.71 129.91 Nyeri town 124.17 Othaya 99.78 125.99 103.57 135.85 KILIFI County 31.63 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 32.93 Kaloleni 15.26 30.32 Kilifi north 28.01 Kilifi south 13.67 26.05 Magarini 35.37 33.49 Malindi 24.41 17.32 Rabai 15.18 29.59 KWALE County 38.83 60.45 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the month of March from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness Kinango 36.76 62.36 Lunga lunga 40.94 58.31 Matuga 58.27 Msambweni 49.28 53.42 County 63.63 73.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Lamu east 58.77 70.52 Lamu west 66.45 74.88 TAITA TAVETA County 33.42 33.49 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Taveta subcounty worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Mwatate 23.66 16.31 Taveta 19.76 42.69 49.53 Wundanyi 25.26 23.23 NAROK County 69.51 94.93 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Emurua Dikirr 104.3 Kilgoris 81.88 104.24 Narok east 50.81 61.44 Narok north 76.56 95.17 Narok south 66.15 96.25 Narok west 69.54 102.17 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "May_2023.pdf": "MAY 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The ongoing March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season occasioned a positive impact on livelihoods across most parts of Arid and Semi-Arid counties with environmental indicators depicting recovery drought phase situation. Despite the recovery across the ASAL counties, food security situation is yet to improve and the number of people in need of assistance remains at 4.4 million following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment while the risk of Acute malnutrition remains. There is often a lag between recovery from drought and food available across the livelihoods. Three counties (3), Wajir, Taita Taveta and Lamu remain in Alert drought phase while Seven (7) counties namely Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in the Recovery drought phase. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Conversely, the rains have caused flash floods in most of the Arid counties which has negative impacts on local livelihoods like displacements and destruction of critical facilities like roads thereby hindering movement and commerce. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, April 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 April Rainfall Performance The analysis of the April 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs received good amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 101mm to 225mm of rainfall with central Turkana, Central Marsabit and North West Mandera receiving highest amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of April ranging between 50mm to 100mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did receive good amounts of rainfall with Lamu county recording highest amounts of rainfall of greater than 225 mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. April 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for the month of May The rainfall outlook for the month of May is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands are forecasted to receive Near-Average to above-average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. coastal marginal agriculture counties includeing Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to get Near- Average to above average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecasted to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. 1.1.3. Flooding Floods were experienced from March through April 2023 in the following counties including Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana, Tana River, Mandera and Wajir. Wajir County reported that an estimated 7,160 households were affected, out of which 6,325 were displaced. The roads linking various towns and settlements were rendered impassable in the county. The critical roads infrastructure including culverts, murram, bridges and drifts were damaged. Communities reported loss of valuable assets including; livestock, destruction of farms and loss of essential commodities by small scale traders, among others. Mandera indicated that flash floods have affected all the 9 locations in Mandera town leading to destruction of various structures including Figure 3. May 2023 Rainfall forecast house, toilets, blocking of culverts, interruption of free movement and displacement of many families within the locations. This has negatively impacted the livelihood of the communities living in the town. A total of 4,172 households were affected and need urgent humanitarian intervention. Flooding in other counties including Tana River, Garissa and Marsabit had minimal impact. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of April showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of March 2023. The reported rains are expected to continue to impact positively on vegetation condition. 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse improved in 56 percent of arid and semi-arid counties with all counties recording fair to good pasture and browse conditions as shown in Table 2. However, the current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of March. The pasture and browse regeneration continue to be registered in majority of the counties and expected to improve to normal status in the coming weeks with the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Garissa Narok Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tana River Makueni West Pokot Baringo Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Kitui Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Baringo Kwale Turkana 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was fair at 65 percent and good at 35 percent. The body condition for goats was also fair at 52 percent and good at 48 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is an improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2023 Cattle Goats Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Garissa Baringo Kwale Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kitui Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Baringo Kwale Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Narok Isiolo Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kajiado 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of April showed an improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of March in majority of the counties. However, milk production was below LTA of a normal year in 74 percent of the ASAL counties. Milk production is expected to increase with browse and pasture regeneration. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Kitui Marsabit 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in the counties of Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Sheep and goat pox and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices In most of the ASAL counties (65 percent), cattle prices were below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, an improving trend has been noted in majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 6. The current unstable livestock body condition is attributed to current below normal prices. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Makueni Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Mandera Nyeri Wajir Garissa Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Tana River West Pokot Kwale 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above normal as a result of improving livestock body condition. Most of the counties recorded Improving trend. The following counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu and Meru were at LTA t While 35 percent of the counties remained in stable trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Wajir Turkana Kwale Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Most of the planted crops germinated and farmers in different agro- ecological zones are engaged in weeding activities. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Farmers have their maize crop germinated and few are weeding Cow peas were less planted Kwale Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones South Marginal Agriculture Kitui Crops were at germination to knee highflowering stage and in good condition Makueni Crops were in the early vegetative stage. Farmers were weeding and top dressing Tharaka Nithi Farmers were doing first weeding and pest control Crop conditions were good and approaching flowering stage and at knee high 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, Maize prices remained above avarage across ASAL counties due to the depleted stocks, coupled with increased food and essential commodities prices across the country. Three counties namely Samburu, Tana River and Turkana showed an improving trend while Lamu, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot counties were on a worsening trend as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, April 2023 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households has improved across the ASAL counties. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance from household to water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 1.8km and 6.1 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Turkana recording highest distances as compared to the previous month where the lowest was 3.3km and highest 16.3 km. In semi-arid counties, Narok and Meru counties ranged between 1.5km to 7.2km respectively as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 2.4km to 9.7 km. All counties showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources except for Makueni which was stable. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Turkana Mandera Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Wajir Kwale Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok West Pokot Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Kilifi Kwale Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Turkana West Pokot Baringo Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kitui Mandera Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Mandera Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source has reduced and thus indicating an improving trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 5kms and 9.3km with Isiolo county recording lowest distances and Garissa highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 8.7km and 22 km. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 2.2 kilometers to 9.6 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 3.2km and 13.3km. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kitui Mandera Samburu Turkana Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was stable across all counties but below LTA due to high maize prices as shown in Table 12. Terms of trade are expected to improve as the season progresses. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Mandera Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Garissa Kilifi Baringo Wajir Narok Turkana Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition. MUAC measurements recorded an improvement across most of the ASAL counties. However, in 17 counties, the MUAC is still above LTA. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Five counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review while Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Kitui, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. On a positive note, only Narok, Kilifi, Laikipia, West-Pokot and Taita Taveta counties that recorded MUAC below the long-term average. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Kwale Mandera Tana River Makueni Turkana Kwale Samburu Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Marsabit Narok Kilifi Laikipia West-Pokot Taita Taveta Kajiado Kwale Kitui Mandera Nyeri Narok Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Makueni 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of April 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored, seven (7) counties including Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while three (3) counties; Lamu, Wajir, Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in Recovery drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while none (0) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa, Narok Alert Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Nyeri Recommendations Food and safety nets Monitoring the recovery phase and supporting food assistance and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Investing in strategic water harvesting infrastructure for future lean seasons Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th April 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 83.34 86.15 North 66.27 71.21 South 41.16 41.62 Ravine 98.16 106.69 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mogotio 31.24 29.31 Tiaty 48.98 49.08 MANDERA County -18.86 -22.56 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month of April. Lafey -24.87 -29.31 North -31.71 -38.54 Banissa -22.63 -28.57 -13.97 -14.71 South -5.31 -6.99 -12.89 -15.74 TURKANA County 41.29 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Turkana East and Central worsened to severe vegetation deficit. 18.37 South 27.55 22.38 Loima 36.34 32.63 Central 27.56 19.39 57.65 58.01 North 57.35 60.17 MARSABIT County 10.93 10.63 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to the last month of March Laisamis 12.83 Moyale North Horr 12.06 WAJIR County The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj 15.41 15.92 North 12.86 16.77 South 10.46 32.87 40.61 Eldas 26.57 35.89 SAMBURU County 25.04 20.57 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of April. 17.88 11.78 North 29.85 26.22 37.76 37.08 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 24.02 13.35 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition index to severe vegetation deficit during the month of April. Township and Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 14.78 Township 63.11 57.38 Ijara 69.82 65.73 13.04 -3.98 Lagdera 19.26 20.22 Dadaab -13.16 ISIOLO County 17.46 16.42 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the month of April. North 16.19 16.75 South 15.92 TANA RIVER County -2.58 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at extreme vegetation deficit -5.61 Galole -4.08 -17.77 Garsen 19.42 KAJIADO County 50.68 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April Central 26.27 20.91 North 86.09 96.15 South 16.98 13.71 67.52 LAIKIPIA County 30.53 28.04 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April 49.88 42.04 North 27.57 27.08 26.75 23.06 THARAKA NITHI County 79.33 68.17 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Chuka 91.07 80.71 Maara 127.25 124.46 Tharaka 59.59 45.46 WEST POKOT County 51.61 54.75 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 46.32 Kapenguria 60.19 60.65 Pokot south 72.23 76.71 Sigor 48.56 52.15 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 68.11 53.52 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Manyatta 120.12 119.18 Mbeere north 49.11 28.09 Mbeere south 51.91 33.84 Runyenjes 112.98 110.61 KITUI County 39.46 27.29 The county worsened in vegetation condition to moderate vegetation greenness up from normal vegetation greenness during the month of April when compared with the previous month of March Kitui central 66.26 56.63 Kitui east 27.57 12.66 Kitui rural 94.58 89.18 Kitui south 48.14 37.54 Kitui west 73.27 64.42 Mwingi central 16.16 Mwingi north 31.79 17.86 Mwingi west 23.38 MAKUENI County 76.45 70.04 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 99.86 Kibwezi east 83.18 Kibwezi west 59.25 48.85 Kilome 30.76 20.33 Makueni 94.07 89.63 Mbooni 88.88 82.55 County 74.92 69.21 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April Buuri 87.41 87.93 Central Imenti 129.14 133.46 Igembe central 40.92 27.57 Igembe north 23.34 11.35 Igembe south 32.13 North Imenti 123.64 128.67 South Imenti 143.2 144.49 Tigania east 65.01 55.59 Tigania west 103.84 101.92 NYERI County 119.36 122.68 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of April. Kieni 110.55 112.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mathira 131.31 136.77 Mukurweini 129.91 135.7 Nyeri town 124.17 133.62 Othaya 125.99 127.76 135.85 139.16 KILIFI County 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze 48.25 Kaloleni 30.32 41.42 Kilifi north Kilifi south 26.05 27.25 Magarini 33.49 26.44 Malindi 17.32 Rabai 29.59 KWALE County 60.45 71.08 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition index during the month of April at above normal vegetation greenness Kinango 62.36 75.81 Lunga Lunga 58.31 67.79 Matuga 58.27 64.43 Msambweni 53.42 47.04 County 73.28 71.29 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Lamu east 70.52 70.76 Lamu west 74.88 71.59 TAITA TAVETA County 33.49 27.66 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April. However, Mwatate and Taveta sub counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit. Mwatate 16.31 Taveta -3.58 49.53 48.35 Wundanyi 23.23 15.57 NAROK County 94.93 109.96 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Emurua Dikirr 104.3 104.24 Kilgoris 104.24 112.69 Narok east 61.44 66.92 Narok north 95.17 101.76 Narok south 96.25 115.56 Narok west 102.17 125.25 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "June_2023.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority JUNE 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The Arid and Semi-Arid counties are recording positive impacts of the just-ended March to May rainfall season. Three (3) counties are in drought Recovery phase while 19 are in Normal phase. However, Taita Taveta county remained Alert drought phase during the month of June 2023. counties Normal drought phase include; Makueni, Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru and Narok. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Acute malnutrition noted among children below five years and pregnant and lactating women across the counties. The number of people in need of relief assistance stands at 4.4 million as per the findings of the October to December 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment released February. An assessment of the impacts of the March to May 2023 long rains on local livelihoods is ongoing by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), which brings together Government sectors, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations. The assessment is critical since food securityinsecurity in the country, especially in the 23 ASAL counties, is highly dependent on rainfall. The assessment findings will provide detailed data on the food security situation in the country, which will inform action by the Government and our partners. Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification - June 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 June 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the June 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received low amounts of rainfall ranging between 40mm to 1mm. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging from 1mm to 5mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable rainfall ranging between 21mm to 80mm. The Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerably good rainfall amounts ranging between 21mm to 100mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties as well as the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 40mm. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for July 2023 Most parts of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and ry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi will experience sunny and dry conditions while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo will experience periodic chilly and overcast conditions with light rains alongside sunny and dry conditions. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall to slightly-above-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) will experience generally sunny and dry conditions while the forecast for the Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) indicates below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions as illustrated in Figure 3. Figure 2: June 2023 Rainfall Performance Figure 3: July 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.1.3 Flooding In Mandera, farms along River Daua are still wet from the flooding witnessed during the long rains and are yet to be planted. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 tracks the progression in vegetation regeneration based on vegetation condition index (VCI) values in May and June 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in June showed great improvement compared to May. Figure 4: VCI values trends for the months of May and June 2023 The improvement is attributed to the performance of the March to May long rains season, which led to vegetation regeneration in most counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, and Taita Taveta counties registered Moderate vegetation deficit, hence require close monitoring. Ten (10) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Marsabit, Laikipia, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Kitui, Kajiado and Kilifi recorded Normal vegetation greenness while another nine (9) counties - Baringo, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Narok, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2023 while Table 1 shows disaggregation by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in June 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse was good condition in 74 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are above normal, which is a great improvement compared to May. The regeneration is attributed to performance of the March to May long rains. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Taita Taveta Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, East), Turkana (East, Central), Marsabit (Moyal), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Kajiado (East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Kitui, Kilifi Baringo (Mogotio), Mandera (West, South), Turkana (south, Loima, West, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas), Samburu (West), Garissa (Township, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere north, Mbeere South),Kitui (East, South, Mwingi central, Mwingi west), Makueni (Kibwezi east, Kilome), Maru (Igembe central, Igembe north), Kilifi (Kilifi south, Magarini, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu, Narok Baringo (central, north, south, ravine, Tiaty), Wajir (west), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (central, north, west), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, rural, west), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Imenti central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Msambweni, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua Dikirr) Table 2. Pasture and browse condition, June 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Kitui Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Kwale Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of cattle was fair in 35 of ASAL counties and good in 65 while 22 recorded fair body condition of goats and 78 good. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock species is above normal, which is attributable to improvement in vegetation regeneration, compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3. Livestock body condition - June 2023 Cattle Goats Taita Taveta Makueni Samburu Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Garissa Narok Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Turkana Isiolo Kwale Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Samburu Nyeri Tana River Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Baringo Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Turkana Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kitui Marsabit Laikipia 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was overall stability and improvement in the trend of milk production in June compared to May. The production is, however, yet to fully stabilise due to decline in tropical livestock units (TLU) and low birth rates attributed to residual effects of livestock mortality experienced during drought. Milk production is expected to increase as the birth rate of small stock increases following improved body condition. The milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown on Table 4. Table 4. Milk production - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Turkana Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Kitui Wajir Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Tana River 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth (FMD) disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices A majority of ASAL counties (60) recorded above-average cattle prices, especially Isiolo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Wajir, Kwale, Narok and Samburu. The current cattle prices are below normal in Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. Embu and Makueni recorded worsening trends as illustrated in Table 5 as farmers disposed of animals to pay school fees. Table 5: Cattle prices - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above Long Term Average (LTA) At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Wajir Kitui Marsabit Turkana Tana River Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Kwale Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni 1.3.6 Goat Prices Prices of goats were higher in most of the ASAL counties (78) compared to the long-term average, which was attributed to good performance of the long rains. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Narok Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Laikipia Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Samburu Tana River Wajir Kwale Narok Kilifi Marsabit Tana River 1.4 Crop production Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in the Coastal Marginal Agriculture and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Early planted maize and green grams were ready for harvest, while most farms recorded varied maize development stages from knee- high to grain-filling stage. Harvesting of green maize crop. Minimal harvest of pineapples from Magarini. Kwale Weeding was ongoing across the county, with three main crops planted being maize, cowpeas and green grams. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in fair condition. Makueni Green grams and cowpeas had performed fairly while maize registered total crop failure. Tharaka Nithi Crop conditions were fair-to-good and at harvesting stage for legumes while cereal crops were at ripening stage. Most farmers were harvesting and threshing for pulses while preparation for harvesting was underway for cereals. Crop in both livelihood zones was ready for harvesting. Harvesting of green grams, beans and cowpeas was complete. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASALs were above the long term average (LTA) since farmers are yet to harvest. 15 counties (65 ) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. These include Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Lamu, Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Samburu,Tharaka Nithi,Turkana and Mandera. However, eight counties recorded a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table 8. Table 8: Maize prices - June 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 10 counties are currently below the long term average. Compared to the previous month, there was a general improvement in distances to water sources for households. Distances to household water access in arid counties (pastoral) ranged between 2.5 kilometres for Isiolo (which recorded lowest) and 7.6 km for Mandera, which had the highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km in Laikipia (lowest) and 5.3 km inner North with the highest distance to household water access. Table 9 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit Kilifi Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera Baringo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Table 9: Trends in main water sources (domestic uses) in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources West Pokot Turkana Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Kilifi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas was stable compared to May. Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded a worsening trend due to cessation of the rains season and high evaporation. The average trekking distances for livestock in arid counties ranged between 5 and 11.2 kilometres, with Wajir recording lowest and Mandera the highest distance. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 7.9 kilometres, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Meru the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Trends in main water sources (livestock use) in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Kitui Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade trends in June, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to diminished household purchasing power. The decline was attributable to high prices of food commodities in local markets. Nevertheless, an improvement was observed in Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Meru while the trend in nine other counties was stable as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade (ToT) Kilifi Mandera Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Kitui Wajir Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Baringo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 12 illustrates the variation in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement. 18 counties recorded MUAC values above long term average, which can be attributed to high commodity prices, low purchasing power as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake at household level. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Wajir Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Kitui Samburu Garissa Taita Taveta Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Narok Kwale Kilifi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Taita Taveta Makueni Kitui Samburu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Nyeri 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of indicators monitored above, 19 counties including Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru, Makueni and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert drought phase. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Six counties reported an improving trend in June, while another 15 recorded a stable trend and two counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13 summarises the drought phase classification as at the end of June 2023. Table 13: Drought phase classification - June 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Embu, Lamu, Kajiado Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Narok, Makueni Alert Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Marsabit Kwale 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and regular cash transfers targeting food insecure. b) Livestock sector: Facilitating safe migration for pastoralists moving back to their settlements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tablets; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment rainwater harvesting. d) Health and nutrition sector: Support to hygiene and sanitation promotion; and sustained mass screening and referrals. e) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict- prone counties. g) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought risk management activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th June 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 50.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. This was an improvement compared to May. Central 77.16 71.88 North 65.13 62.12 South 37.93 53.24 Ravine 91.77 77.73 Mogotio 24.33 45.22 Tiaty 44.27 52.17 MANDERA County -26.08 34.65 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to moderate vegetation deficit from extreme deficit in June. Lafey -32.96 30.45 North -37.19 30.79 Banissa -28.14 26.51 -16.01 37.37 South -19.06 44.26 -20.65 34.33 TURKANA County 29.85 41.81 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. 12.45 28.95 South 13.25 Loima 41.07 Central 11.53 34.12 39.85 49.42 North 50.06 48.51 MARSABIT County 35.18 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation greenness in June. Laisamis 35.12 Moyale 32.75 North Horr 35.09 48.65 WAJIR County 39.42 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation greenness in June. Wajir West recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj -5.39 45.48 North South -5.67 29.66 30.78 54.77 Eldas 24.37 48.86 -14.85 30.27 SAMBURU County 31.77 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate deficit in June. -2.53 26.56 North 13.03 34.22 26.39 44.74 GARISSA County 15.86 37.42 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in June. Great improvements were noted in Balambala, Daadab and Fafi sub-counties. Balambala 24.38 Township 34.23 35.39 Ijara 58.99 30.71 Lagdera 20.86 45.81 Dadaab -23.57 29.01 ISIOLO County 13.56 38.74 The county and all subcounties noted an improvement in vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in June. North 35.25 South 44.08 TANA RIVER County -5.18 28.96 The county and two subcounties recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. -11.17 22.31 Galole -16.78 26.06 Garsen 36.42 KAJIADO County 51.49 47.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness while Kajiado Central, North and West showed above normal vegetation greenness. Central 90.99 61.83 11.82 34.92 North 77.18 70.01 South 10.18 31.45 79.18 56.52 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 The vegetation condition in the County and sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation deficit. 18.07 45.08 North 12.07 37.06 15.32 THARAKA NITHI County 39.98 53.33 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness from normal, with Tharaka subcounty showing great improvement from severe deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Chuka 52.96 62.48 Maara 103.81 80.59 Tharaka 14.69 41.17 POKOT County 44.61 49.21 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness, with Kacheliba subcounty registering improvement to normal greenness from moderate deficit. Kacheliba 33.27 43.12 Kapenguria 49.51 51.24 Pokot South 67.98 63.63 Sigor 47.30 50.04 County 24.64 51.61 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit. Mbeere South and North sub counties registered the greatest improvement. Manyatta 91.95 79.38 Mbeere North 41.84 Mbeere South 42.53 Runyenjes 84.45 76.31 KITUI County 12.76 42.63 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to normal greenness. Kitui Central, Rural and West registered the greatest improvement to above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 38.72 Kitui East Kitui Rural 60.82 72.33 Kitui South 42.54 Kitui West 39.49 57.13 Mwingi Central -8.32 38.47 Mwingi North -2.68 31.49 Mwingi West 39.93 MAKUENI County 47.51 59.32 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness, with Kilome showing the greatest improvement. Kaiti 70.35 Kibwezi East 61.25 54.19 Kibwezi West 27.41 48.68 Kilome -3.42 47.02 Makueni 68.52 72.58 Mbooni 57.97 74.43 County 53.16 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central, North and South sub counties showed the greatest improvement. Buuri 82.54 62.92 Central Imenti 115.28 78.49 Igembe Central 45.39 Igembe -9.83 North Igembe South 45.58 North Imenti 105.42 74.88 South Imenti 127.14 87.07 Tigania East 43.49 50.65 Tigania West 82.24 64.39 NYERI County 100.29 80.35 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of June. Kieni 95.29 Mathira 115.98 90.87 Mukurweini 110.62 91.12 Nyeri Town 115.67 87.54 Othaya 75.83 105.79 82.64 KILIFI County 46.58 The vegetation condition in the county improved to normal vegetation greenness, with Kilifi North registering moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 48.48 51.89 Kaloleni 41.32 54.18 Kilifi North -9.41 34.17 Kilifi South 47.62 Magarini 44.77 Malindi 11.66 44.98 Rabai 32.71 53.37 KWALE County 64.58 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kinango 79.15 67.58 Lunga 70.00 62.24 Matuga 61.29 Msambweni 35.33 County 66.78 69.65 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Lamu East 68.33 68.48 Lamu West 65.89 70.33 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT TAITA TAVETA County 14.66 32.13 The county improved to moderate vegetation deficit in June. Mwatate -6.56 Taveta -18.58 23.38 35.55 37.98 Wundanyi 28.91 NAROK County 112.29 80.72 The county and all sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Emurua Dikirr 84.49 68.54 Kilgoris 108.17 73.81 Narok East 60.64 65.97 Narok North 84.95 76.33 Narok South 121.52 Narok West 141.73 89.71 Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "July_2023.pdf": "JULY 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The 2023 long rains that ended in May had positive impacts, including reversing the adverse effects of the drought experienced in the past five seasons. Twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties reported normal drought phase during the month of July while one (Taita Taveta) was classfified in Alert drought phase and another (Marsabit) in Recovery phase. The 21 counties in Normal phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot. Figure 1 shows drought phase classification for the month of July 2023. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 July 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the July 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received trace rainfall amounts. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received amounts of rainfall at 1mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 5mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received low rainfall Figure 1: Drought phase classification in July 2023 Figure 2: July 2023 Rainfall Performance amounts in July ranging between 1mm to 10mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 11mm to 75mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for August 2023 The rainfall outlook for August is illustrated in Figure 3. About 90 of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and dry conditions. Parts South Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties such as Embu Tharaka Nithi experiencing periodic chilly and overcast with light rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions and periodically chilly and overcast with light rains for counties bordering Mt. Kenya and Aberdare ranges. coastal marginal agriculture counties including Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for August 2023. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The month of July 2023 indicated enormous improvement in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to June. The improvement is attributed to cumulative effects of March to May rainfall season and moisture condition improvement. One county, Taita Taveta, has Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Six Figure 3: August 2023 Rainfall forecast (6) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Sixteen (16) counties including Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions in June and July 2023 The vegetation condition in July 2023 is better as compared to June 2023 as shown in Figure 4. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2023 is provided in Table 14. The overall VCI for each county disaggregated by subcounty is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Summarised Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good in 52 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current conditions are above normal compared to normal years, with stability in pasture condition compared to June. Stabilised forage condition is attributable to above-normal rains received in the last season. Category County Subcounties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Central, East), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Normal vegetation greenness West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado Baringo (Tiaty), Turkana (East, South, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Samburu (North), Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Isiolo (North), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South, West), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kitui (Mwingi North), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Kwale (Msambweni), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Mogotio), Mandera (Lafey, North, South, West, East), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe central, Igembe north, Igembe south, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania west), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua dikirr) Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - July 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was fair at 30 and good at 70 in the ASAL counties while body condition for goats was fair at 26 and good at 74 Generally, the body condition of most livestock was above normal compared to similar periods in a normal year due to improvement in vegetation as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Livestock body condition - July 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Kitui Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Wajir West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was slight deterioration in the trend of milk production in July compared to the previous month of June. Eight counties showed an improving trend, except Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana, which experienced a worsening trend. Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Turkana counties, on the other hand, had milk production levels above the normal range. However, its important to note that the current milk production status in 15 of the 23 counties is below the average for a normal year. The details of milk production trend in the 23 ASAL counties are in table 4. Table 4: Milk production - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Kwale Turkana Wajir Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Narok Tana River Wajir Baringo Garissa Mandera West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties (57) in the ASAL region experienced above-average cattle prices. The cattle prices were below normal in Nyeri and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. A positive trend was observed in the majority of the counties, including Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. However, Lamu and Meru recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices The prices of goats in most of the ASAL counties were higher at 86 compared to the long- term average. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend, except for Kitui, Lamu and Nyeri counties, which reported a worsening trend. In Table 6, it is evident that Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Table 6: Goat prices in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Narok Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Tana River Kwale Turkana Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Samburu Kwale Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Kitui Nyeri 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. The coastal cluster counties of Kilifi and Kwale are yet to complete harvesting. Table 7 summarises the state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Long rains crop harvest continued across the livelihood zone. Maize, green grams and cowpeas were the main rain-fed crops being harvested in the month of July. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in the market remained high. Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was ongoing. Rains in the livestock farming livelihood zone ceased earlier than normal, with crops having experienced moisture stress and crop destruction caused by invasion of farms by elephants. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui -Crops were at harvesting stage with farmers recording below average harvests. -Wilting of maize was reported in most parts due to moisture stress hence little or no harvests realised. Makueni Minimal harvesting of maize was ongoing in the mixed farming livelihood zone. There was total crop failure in the MMF livelihood zone due to late onset and early cessation of the rains. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were harvesting pulses while harvesting was underway for cereals. Harvesting was complete for all the crops (beans, maize, sorghum, green grams) in both livelihood zones 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize Prices in ASALs were above the LTA, except in Garissa which was at LTA. 13 counties (56) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. They include Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Mandera, Kitui, Laikipia, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot. However, three counties witnessed a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table Table 8: Maize prices - July 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 5 counties was below the LTA. The trend is worsening compared with the previous month. Distances in arid (pastoral) counties ranged between 2.5 and 7.6 km, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.8 km to 6.3 km recorded in Laikipia and Kajiado counties respectively. 13 counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir, showed a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Makueni Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Kitui Laikipia Narok Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Garissa Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Baringo Kwale Makueni Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month, with 10 counties registering distances below the LTA. 16 counties recorded a worsening trend. The average trekking distance for livestock in arid counties ranged between 7 and 12.2 km, with Wajir county recording lowest distances and Mandera County highest respectively. The distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 1.7 and 7.3 km in semi-arid counties, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Baringo the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Kitui Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 1.6 Terms of Trade In July, 19 counties were below the LTA. The trade trends, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to the diminished purchasing power of households across ASAL counties. The decline can be attributed to the high prices of commodities. Nevertheless, an encouraging improvement was observed in 12 counties namely; Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. Two counties registered worsening state as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Kwale Makueni Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Kitui 1.7 Health and Nutrition Twenty-one (21) counties recorded above long term average of the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle-upper- arm measurements MUAC values). This can be attributed to decreased milk production, resulting in reduced milk consumption at household level, as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake within households. The trend worsened in three counties including Kajiado, Kilifi and Turkana as illustrated in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Marsabit Samburu Garissa Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Mandera Tana River West Pokot Wajir Taita-Taveta Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Table 13 sums the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, 21 counties including Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert phase and Marsabit in Recovery. During the month under review, two counties reported an improving trend, 13 counties recorded a stable trend, while eight counties reported a worsening trend. The drought has continued to worsen in one county (Taita Taveta). Table 13: Drought phase classification - July 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Alert Taita Taveta, Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations i) Food and safety nets: Sustaining food aid and cash transfers to the population identified as requiring humanitarian assistance in the 2023 Long Rains Assessment. ii) Livestock sector: Promoting fodder productions and storage; stimulating local livestock markets and other value chains to function optimally; treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. iii) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tabs; development of roof catchments in institutions and rock catchments. iv) Health and nutrition sector: Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion; sustaining mass screening and referrals; pre-positioning the supply commodities in local facilities. v) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; support to school bursaries. vi) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogue and resource use agreements; coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. vii) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th July 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.93 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Central 71.88 69.95 North 62.12 64.17 South 53.24 57.86 Ravine 77.73 64.65 Mogotio 45.22 51.95 Tiaty 52.17 49.24 MANDERA County 34.65 60.94 Improvement in vegetation cover from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 30.45 North 30.79 54.75 Banissa 26.51 32.31 37.37 South 44.26 86.88 34.33 70.57 TURKANA County 41.81 46.68 Stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. 28.95 34.64 South Loima 41.07 53.68 Central 34.12 51.94 49.42 54.41 North 48.51 43.03 MARSABIT County 35.18 51.36 Improved vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Laisamis 35.12 49.69 Moyale 32.75 43.08 North Horr 35.09 52.85 48.65 79.49 WAJIR County 39.42 63.54 Improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Tarbaj 45.48 76.89 North 63.71 South 29.66 53.13 54.77 77.42 Eldas 48.86 72.89 30.27 54.82 SAMBURU County 31.77 36.42 Improving trend in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 26.56 North 34.22 44.74 50.42 GARISSA County 37.42 51.12 Improved vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 24.38 31.44 Township 35.39 35.12 Ijara 58.99 48.58 30.71 42.75 Lagdera 45.81 Dadaab 29.01 63.48 ISIOLO County 38.74 55.81 Improvement in vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. North 35.25 48.64 South 44.08 66.77 TANA RIVER County 28.96 46.57 The county and two of its sub counties noted improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness, with Galole and Garsen recording above normal vegetation greenness. 22.31 Galole 26.06 50.12 Garsen 36.42 50.11 KAJIADO County 47.21 35.58 The county recorded vegetation greenness at normal. However, Kajiado Central and East recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Central 61.83 30.99 34.92 31.74 North 70.01 52.85 South 31.45 36.37 56.52 38.81 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 47.35 The County and its sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation deficit. 45.08 North 37.06 42.01 57.42 THARAKA NITHI County 53.33 61.06 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Chuka 62.48 72.81 Maara 80.59 73.69 Tharaka 41.17 POKOT County 49.21 49.82 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, Kapenguria, Pokot South and Sigor recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 43.12 Kapenguria 51.24 55.86 Pokot south 63.63 67.51 Sigor 50.04 50.29 County 51.61 70.18 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.38 77.58 Mbeere north 41.84 Mbeere south 42.53 Runyenjes 76.31 KITUI County 42.63 60.95 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kitui central 82.05 Kitui east 83.97 Kitui rural 72.33 81.63 Kitui south 42.54 53.81 Kitui west 57.13 62.48 Mwingi central 38.47 Mwingi north 31.49 Mwingi west 39.93 54.49 MAKUENI County 59.32 63.14 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July compared to June. Kaiti 77.26 Kibwezi east 54.19 45.82 Kibwezi west 48.68 57.98 Kilome 47.02 Makueni 72.58 79.94 Mbooni 74.43 County Stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 62.92 61.88 Central Imenti 78.49 69.64 Igembe central 45.39 69.91 Igembe north 54.12 Igembe south 45.58 72.14 North Imenti 74.88 74.77 South Imenti 87.07 72.23 Tigania east 50.65 55.69 Tigania west 64.39 56.74 NYERI County 80.35 73.12 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kieni 68.65 Mathira 90.87 82.71 Mukurweini 91.12 87.57 Nyeri town 87.54 77.97 Othaya 75.83 69.83 82.64 77.77 KILIFI County 46.58 50.33 The vegetation condition in the county improved to above vegetation greenness in July from normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 51.89 47.24 Kaloleni 54.18 Kilifi north 34.17 52.81 Kilifi south 47.62 51.75 Magarini 44.77 49.53 Malindi 44.98 59.36 Rabai 53.37 54.79 KWALE County 64.58 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kinango 67.58 61.01 Lunga 62.24 66.27 Matuga 58.01 Msambweni County 69.65 72.24 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in July. Lamu east 68.48 65.74 Lamu west 70.33 75.99 TAITA TAVETA County 32.13 The county improved to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 Taveta 23.38 38.66 37.98 Wundanyi 28.91 31.26 NAROK County 80.72 64.63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Emurua Dikirr 68.54 71.65 Kilgoris 73.81 56.89 Narok east 65.97 65.79 Narok north 76.33 66.27 Narok south 62.98 Narok west 89.71 68.17 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 16: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "August_2023.pdf": "AUGUST 2023 1.Drought Situation Overview Despite notable recovery attributed to the impacts of March to May (MAM) rains in Arid and Semi- Arid counties. The recovery is yet to be registered fully. Currently, one (1) county reported recovery phase, and nineteen counties reported normal drought phase situation. Drought situation thus remains alert in three (3) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of August 2023. The number of people in need of assistance stands at 2.8 Million currently following long rains (LRA) security assessment. Three counties including; Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Nineteen (19) counties namely; Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot and Isiolo are in Normal drought phase. One (1) county; Marsabit is in the Recovery drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 653,500 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,900 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, August, 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 August 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the August 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received quite less amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging between 1mm to 25mm. The Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received considerable amount of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received low rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between 1mm to 25mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 26mm to 100mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. August 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for September 2023 The rainfall outlook for the month of September is illustrated in figure 3. Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted to receive Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period). Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny conditions with counties like Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting to receive near to below average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally receive near to below average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period) are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are near to below average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for September 2023. 1.1.3. Flooding Flooding was noted in Samburu County and the assessment is being conducted to estimate the damage caused by flooding. Figure 3. September 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 4 indicates the trends in the vegetation condition index (VCI) for the month of July and that of August 2023. Marginal change in the month of August was noted where three counties depicted changes in VCI values. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August The month of August 2023 indicated slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of July 2023. The deterioration in vegetation condition is associated with the ongoing dry season after ceased long rains season. This dry season has led to drop in vegetation greenness since soil moisture has decreased. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Kajiado and Samburu recorded moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following eight (8) counties including; West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The July 2023 August 2023 following twelve (12) counties including; Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2023 worsened when compared to the previous month, July 2023 as shown in (Figure 4). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2023 is provided in Figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Kajiado, Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa, West), Turkana (East, North), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Baringo (Mogotio, Tiaty), Mandera (Lafey, North), Turkana (South, Loima, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Ijara, Fafi), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North, West), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi east), Meru (Igembe north, Tigania east, Tigania west), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris) Above normal Vegetation greenness Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Mandera (South, East), Turkana (Central), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, West, Eldas), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (North, South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere north, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi west, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage with respect to the previous month was noted across majority of the ASAL counties with about 70 percent reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse level was within the normal level for the month of August save for a few counties like Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta. Observed forage condition deterioration across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions that dominated most parts of the ASALs. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2023 Pasture Browse Baringo, Embu (Mbeere) Garissa, Samburu Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera, Turkana Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Narok Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kwale Wajir Marsabit Embu (Mbeere) Garissa, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera Meru, Taita Taveta Narok, Samburu Tana River Turkana Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Wajir Marsabit 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair across most counties (60 percent) while that of goats and sheep was good in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 3). Estimated 40 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle as being good Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikir, East, North, South, West) while 18 percent of the counties indicated the body condition of goat as being equally good. The observed body condition over August was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2023 Catle GoatsSheep Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kilifi Mandera Samburu Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Marsabit (Mbeere) Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Kwale Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. Approximately 18, 55, and 27 percent of the counties reported an improving, stable and worsening trend respectively. Milk produced over August was above, at par and below the long-term average (LTA) in about 59 and 32 percent of the counties (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Production Mandera Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta River Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Baringo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Garissa, Kilifi Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Pokot Samburu Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Endemic diseases were reported in Garissa, Kajiado, Samburu, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River. The diseases included suspected cases of Sheep and Goat Pox, Q-Fever in goats, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste Des Petits Ruminants, and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Trypanosomiasis, Foot Rot, Rabies and Orf. Besides that, a unique condition suspected to be either swayback syndrome or Molybdenum poisoning (toxicity) was experienced in various parts of Samburu County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 64 percent recorded above-average cattle prices with about 18 percent apiece reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices accordingly (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Kwale and Nyeri driven by the deteriorating body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2023 Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Mandera Samburu Kitui River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Pokot Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices A stable with a tendency to improve in the market price of goat was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Kwale and Lamu counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over August. Overall, majority of the counties (90 percent) reported prices that were above the normal price for the period with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kitui Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Marsabit Embu, Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Pokot Kwale 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and South East marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was almost complete and production was above average. However, destruction of crops by elephants was noted in some areas. Taita Taveta Harvesting was ongoing though the yield was expected to be below normal. Significant proportion of farmers in the Mixed Farming: Food crop Livestock livelihood zone did not plant due to late onset of the rains and the few who planted crops wilted due to moisture stress. Crop farmers are currently harvesting green maize and other crops such as green grams. Crop farmers are harvesting maize in all livelihood zones except the fishing zone. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui The long rains ceased when maize was in a tussling stage leading to moisture stress which resulted to poor grain filling in most parts. Also, the late planted maize had a total crop failure with cow peas attacked by aphids which reduced production significantly. The actual crop production for most crops was 60-100 percent of the long- term average. Makueni Production of maize, green grams and cowpeas had declined by 60, 42 and 34 percent respectively. The decline in production was partly due to early cessation of the long rains and also infestation by Fall Armyworm (FAW) and African Armyworm (AAW). Agropastoral Baringo Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was almost being concluded. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Laikipia Some of the farmers who had planted early reported harvesting of maize although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the MAM rains and the poor off season rains of JJA rains and frostbite attacks. Narok Currently, some of crops like maize are at harvesting stage and at germination for beans with the condition being fair due to moisture stress. Moreover, most crops in the Pastoral Livelihood zone have not realized any harvest due to maize crop failure. 1.4.1 Maize prices Decline in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for Wajir that recorded an increase over the reference period. Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa reported prices that were above the usual price range in August as illustrated in table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by on-going harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo Kilifi Kwale,Lamu Laikipia Makueni Meru, Samburu River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source is between 2.6 kilometers and 8.4 kilometers with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranges between 1.6 kilometers and 7.1kilometers(km), with Narok recording lowest and Kajiado recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. 12 counties including Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River, Meru, Makueni and Nyeri indicated a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening Distance households to main water Kajiado, Nyeri Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta Pokot Embu, Isiolo Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Marsabit Mandera, Narok Embu, Baringo Mandera, Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi, Kajiado Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Embu, Garissa Baringo Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Marsabit sources Tana River Turkana, Makueni Garisssa Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Kwale, Wajir Narok, Isiolo Kitui, Lamu Makueni Pokot Kwale, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Tana River Marsabit 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing area worsened in 10 counties with above LTA, while other counties are below LTA and at LTA respectively as depicted in table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend included: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Narok, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties was between 7.3 kilometers to 14.4 kilometers with Baringo reporting the lowest and Samburu recording the highest. In the semi-arid counties, the distance was 1.8 kilometers to 7.1 kilometers with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Kajiado County recording the highest distance. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Wajir Mandera West Pokot Narok Turkana Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Tana- River Nyeri Kajiado 1.6 Terms of trade In August, 2023, 87 percent of the counties reported a ToT that was below the respective long-term average depicting a stable trend in relation to the previous month. This is due to high fuel prices that have contributed to high maize prices against low goat prices across the ASAL counties. The counties are Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tan River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot and Kitui. However, compared to the previous period, there has been an improvement in about 78 percent of the counties and these include: Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Marsabit and West Pokot with the exception of Kajiado County that recorded a deteriorating trend (Table 11). Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Wajir Mandera Pokot Narok Turkana Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Tana-River Nyeri Kajiado 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in four counties: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River and Turkana as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category. About seven counties reported a stable trend while the situation improved in the remaining nine counties. The worsening trend in the four mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence reduced milk consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 55 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was below the usual level for the period under analysis as shown in table Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, River, Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Marsabit Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Kwale Tharaka- Nithi West- Pokot, Isiolo, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Samburu Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Wajir Mandera, Meru, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa Tana River, Turkana Marsabit 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Kajiado, Samburu and Taita Taveta were classified at the Alert phase and on a worsening trend. Approximately 86 percent of the counties were at the Normal phase of drought with a worsening trend being noted in Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, and Tana River while stability was reported in 10 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Wajir with only Isiolo reporting an improving trend (Table 13). Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteri orating Normal Isiolo Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Wajir Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River Alert Kajiado, Samburu, Taita-Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities Installation of water resource level monitoring levels Development of water harvesting infrastructure especially in schools. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th August 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.93 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. The situation has begun to worsen Central 69.95 69.64 North 64.17 59.75 South 57.86 52.14 Ravine 64.65 74.16 Mogotio 51.95 43.44 Tiaty 49.24 37.02 MANDERA County 60.94 44.39 The county recorded a depreciation in vegetation cover from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 42.24 North 54.75 38.34 Banissa 32.31 28.69 34.58 South 86.88 66.22 70.57 60.75 TURKANA County 46.68 37.71 The county recorded a stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Turkana East and North has begun to worsen. 34.64 27.49 South 35.03 Loima 53.68 Central 51.94 51.59 54.41 43.29 North 43.03 33.93 MARSABIT County 51.36 49.26 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness during the month of June to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July Laisamis 49.69 45.33 Moyale 43.08 40.92 North Horr 52.85 52.06 79.49 76.98 WAJIR County 63.54 54.87 The county recorded a stability in the vegetation at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Tarbaj 76.89 57.34 North 63.71 52.18 South 53.13 48.76 77.42 72.58 Eldas 72.89 63.29 54.82 44.92 SAMBURU County 36.42 28.77 The county recorded a worsening trend in vegetation greenness 26.93 from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review North 27.99 50.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 51.12 45.29 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala and township worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 31.44 25.91 Township 35.12 32.35 Ijara 48.58 39.33 42.75 37.13 Lagdera 76.73 Dadaab 63.48 56.05 ISIOLO County 55.81 55.84 The county noted a stability in vegetation condition at normal above vegetation greenness. North 48.64 50.13 South 66.77 64.57 RIVER County 46.57 40.52 The county and two of its sub counties noted a stability in vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. However, Bura noted moderate vegetation deficit. 34.82 Galole 50.12 43.17 Garsen 50.11 43.69 KAJIADO County 35.58 32.98 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Central 30.99 27.66 31.74 29.82 North 52.85 47.97 South 36.37 38.81 35.75 LAIKIPIA County 47.35 35.31 The County and its sub counties a stability in vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 57.42 49.34 THARAKA NITHI County 61.06 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Chuka 72.81 65.04 Maara 73.69 64.89 Tharaka 46.53 POKOT County 49.82 40.72 The county recorded a stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, Kacheliba recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot south 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 County 70.18 56.58 The county recorded a stability vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Manyatta 77.58 59.08 Mbeere north 62.18 Mbeere south 49.62 Runyenjes 67.19 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 60.95 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 82.05 78.09 Kitui east 83.97 81.04 Kitui rural 81.63 76.83 Kitui south 53.81 52.32 Kitui west 62.48 53.27 Mwingi central 62.48 Mwingi north 38.41 Mwingi west 54.49 45.16 MAKUENI County 63.14 59.91 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August when compared to the last month of July. Kaiti 77.26 82.39 Kibwezi east 45.82 Kibwezi west 57.98 53.23 Kilome 63.19 Makueni 79.94 73.08 Mbooni 82.91 County 59.55 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Buuri 61.88 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe central 69.91 63.27 Igembe north 54.12 49.31 Igembe south 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania east 55.69 46.91 Tigania west 56.74 49.06 NYERI County 73.12 64.96 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kieni 68.65 62.15 Mathira 82.71 63.63 Mukurweini 87.57 73.88 Nyeri town 77.97 57.73 Othaya 69.83 67.41 77.77 77.67 KILIFI County 50.33 51.45 The vegetation condition in the county remained stable at above vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 47.24 48.95 Kaloleni 64.73 Kilifi north 52.81 58.45 Kilifi south 51.75 57.48 Magarini 49.53 48.72 Malindi 59.36 Rabai 54.79 60.92 KWALE County 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kinango 61.01 63.77 Lunga Lunga 66.27 67.82 Matuga 58.01 64.75 Msambweni 52.31 County 72.24 62.03 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Lamu east 65.74 52.22 Lamu west 75.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 33.69 The county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 36.43 Taveta 38.66 37.41 32.01 Wundanyi 31.26 25.82 NAROK County 64.63 54.66 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kilgoris worsened to normal vegetation greenness. Emurua Dikirr 71.65 65.54 Kilgoris 56.89 49.26 Narok east 65.79 53.23 Narok north 66.27 61.53 Narok south 62.98 54.53 Narok west 68.17 53.91 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "September_2023.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained stable in most of the ASAL counties in September 2023. This is attributed to close to normal performance and impacts of March to May (MAM) rains. Currently, 18 counties have reported Normal drought phase while five (5) reported Alert phase and require close monitoring. The number of people requiring relief assistance stands at 2.8 million based on the assessment of the impact of the March to May long rains on food security conducted in July. The five counties in the Alert drought phase are Laikipia, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River and Taita Taveta. The counties in Normal drought phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Marsabit, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Figure 1 illustrates the drought phase classification month September 2023. Figure 1. Drought Phase Classification -September 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 September 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the September 2023 monthly rainfall performance shows that though the October to December short rains season had not started in most ASAL counties, most parts received little amounts of rainfall, particularly the Pastoral Northeast cluster including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa which received between 1mm to 20mm. The Pastoral Northwest counties - Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu - received between 1mm to 50mm while the Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties received near- to-above average rainfall, except Embu and Nyeri which registered below average rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale and Kilifi received below average rainfall while the Northeast, Southeastern lowlands and the Northwestern region remained dry in September except Machakos which received above average rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for October 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir,Tana River and Garissa), Southeast Marginal Agriculture including Machakoes, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta) and North Western Kenya of (Turkana,Samburu) are likely to experience onset of seasonal rainfall from the third to fourth week of October. The expected total rainfall amounts for Northeast and Southeast lowlands are likely to be above the long-term average for October, Figure 2: September 2023 Rainfall Performance while Turkana and Samburu are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near-to-above long term average amounts for October. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado and Narok are likely to experience enhanced rainfall amounts exceeding the long term average for October and are likely to be from the third to fourth week of October. However, rainfall in Narok is likely to continue from September 2023. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and Tana River are likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for October. The rainfall outlook for October is shown in Figure 3. 1.1.3. Flooding Enhanced rainfall in most ASAL counties as provided in the outlook is likely to be characterised by localised incidences of flooding in particular zones as indicated in Figure 4. All the 23 ASAL counties have contingency plans in place and NDMA is currently monitoring the key hotspots as the short rains season starts. Figure 3: October 2023 Rainfall Forecast Figure 4: Flooding hotspots in ASAL counties. 1.2 Vegetation Condition A marginal change was noted in the vegetation condition index (VCI) in some of the ASAL counties during the month of September compared to August 2023, where three counties depicted changes in VCI values as indicated in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCI) of August and September 2023 There was slight decline in vegetation condition across the ASALs in September compared to August 2023. The decline is attributed to high temperatures. However, the condition is expected to improve with onset of the October to December short rains season. Nonetheless, none of ASAL counties indicated either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Five (5) counties including Taita Taveta, Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Laikipia reported moderate vegetation deficit, indicating slight deterioration in environmental indicators. Seven (7) counties, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Baringo, Garissa and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. 11 counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera recorded above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of September 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in September 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage was noted across majority of ASAL counties, with about 83 reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair-to-good (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse condition were within the normal level for the month of September, save for a few counties such as Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia and Taita Taveta that recorded poor conditions. The observed deterioration of forage condition across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions in most parts of the ASALs. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Laikipia North Moderate Vegetation Deficit Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot, Laikipia Samburu (East, North, West), Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Bura, Turkana ( East, South, North), Kacheliba, Sigor, Mogotio, Tiaty, Balambala, Garissa Township, Kajiado (Central, East), Laikipia East Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok Baringo South, Ijara, Fafi, Kajiado (South, West), Magarini, Mwingi (North, West), Laikipia West, Kibwezi West, Mandera (North, West), Banissa, Laisamis, Moyale, Tigania (East,West),Taveta, Galole, Garsen, Tharaka, Loima, Turkana (Central, West) Wajir East, Kapenguria, Kilgoris,Narok( East, West, South). Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makweni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera Baringo (Central, North), Eldama Ravine, Embere (South, North), Manyatta, Runyenjes, Lagdera, Dadab, Isiolo (North, South), Kaloleni, Kilifi (North, South), Malindi, Rabai, Kitui (Central, South, West, East, Rural) Mwingi, Central, Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Lamu (East,West), Kaiti, Kilome, Makweni, Mbooni, Kibwezi West, Mandera (East, South),North-Horr, Saku, Buuri, IMENTI (Central, North, South),Igembe (Central, North, South), Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya,Tetu, Chuka, Maara, Tarbaj, Eldas, Wajir (North, West, South), Pokot South, Emurrua Dikirr, Narok North Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in September 2023. Pasture Browse Turkana Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Makueni Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Wajir Meru North Kitui Makueni Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera Baringo Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Wajir West Pokot Meru North 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair-to-good all across all ASAL counties (Table 3).The observed body condition over September was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3: Livestock body condition in September 2023. Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Wajir West Pokot Meru North Mandera Baringo Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Tana River Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Meru North Mandera 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. However, approximately 50 of the counties reported below average milk production which could be attributed to low tropical livestock units (TLUs) as a result of previous failed seasons that resulted in livestock mortalities (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4: Milk production in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Isiolo Turkana Wajir Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Mandera Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Samburu Tana River Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Wajir Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kitui Kilifi Mandera Narok Nyeri 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Unconfirmed Incidences of endemic livestock diseases including Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), goatsheep pox, Heartwater disease and Mange were reported across most arid counties. Equally, suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease were reported in Embu, West Pokot, Samburu, and Narok Counties. Tick borne diseases such as anaplasmosis, babesiosis and East Coast Fever were recorded in majority of the counties, with reported cases of abortions among goats in some areas such as Kajiado West due to suspected Q-Fever disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties about 65 - recorded above-average cattle prices, with about 13 reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Meru and Tana River counties. Table 5: Cattle prices in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi, Wajir Kwale Mandera Marsabit Meru, Turkana Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir Baringo Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. Overall, majority of the counties (95) reported prices that were above normal for the period, with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Baringo Mandera Nyeri Tana River Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Kwale Samburu 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current state of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Production was significantly reduced as a result of crop failure and destruction by aphids. The actual production for most crops was 60-100 of the long-term average. Agropastoral Baringo Most farmers have concluded harvesting various crops and land preparation was ongoing in preparation for the short rains season. Laikipia In September, some farms in the Mixed Farming Livelihood and some in the Marginal Mixed Farming reported harvesting of maize while others reported harvesting of beans and Irish potatoes. In other farms, maize crop is at maturity- to-harvesting stage, wheat at maturing-to-harvesting stage although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the March to May rains and poor June-July-August off-season rains and frostbite attacks (maize). Narok Currently, some of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at germination and knee-high stages for maize and beans are in good condition. West Pokot Most areas in the pastoral livelihood zones suffered crop failure due to moisture stress during the critical stages of flowering, tasseling and grain formation and farmers got little to no harvest at all. The affected wards include: Masol in Pokot Central Sub- County, Alale, Suam, Kodich and Kapchok in Pokot North Sub- County as well as Lower Chepareria in Kipkomo Sub- County. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the counties (over 95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 11 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, lamu, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana recorded an improving trend as result of ongoing harvesting. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in September 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend compared to the previous month. Distance to water source in arid counties is between 2.8 and 8.5 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 6.6 kilometres, with Kajiado recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources, September2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kajiado, Nyeri, Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, West Pokot, Meru Embu, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui , Lamu, Marsabit , Mandera, Narok, Kwale, Wajir, Mandera Embu, Baringo Mandera, Tharaka Nithi, Narok, Isiolo Kitui, Lamu Makueni Baringo, Kilifi, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kwale, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Nyeri, Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta, Mandera, Tana River, Turkana, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, West Pokot, Marsabit Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo, Embu Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Narok, Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the trekking distance to water source from grazing areas worsened in 13 counties in September, while other counties were below long term average and at long term average respectively as depicted in Table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend include: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir, Marsabit and Mandera. Its also worth noting that seven (7) counties including Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot recorded above long term average distances from livestock grazing areas to main water sources. The average livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water points in arid counties was between 4 and 15.4 kilometres, with Lamu reporting the lowest and Samburu the highest. In semi-arid counties, the distance was between 2.4 and 7.7 kilometres, with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Taita Taveta the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot Kwale Narok Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Marsabit, Wajir Garissa, Kwale, Mandera and Meru Narok Baringo Kwale Kajiado Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taveta, Turkana Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi Kitui, Tana River Wajir, Marsabit, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera 1.6 Terms of Trade In September, 48 of ASAL counties reported Terms of Trade that were below the respective long term average, indicating an improvement compared to the previous month. Most of the counties are close to long term average, depicting an improving trend in household purchasing power as result of ongoing harvest as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Narok, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and Makueni Baringo, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, TaitaTaveta, West Pokot, Meru Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Tukana and Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Makueni 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was above long term average in 52 of the counties, with 11 counties on a worsening trend including: Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Meru and Turkana. The poor nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, thus livelihoods are still on recovery mode and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference measurements) in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, five counties including Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana are classified at the Alert drought phase and on a worsening trend, while 18 counties are at the Normal phase with a worsening trend being noted in Kitui, Makueni, Garissa and Nyeri as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in September 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Marsabit Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kajiado, Lamu, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Kwale, West Pokot, Mandera, Meru Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Garissa Alert Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana Alarm Emergency - Recovery 3.0 Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. 3.2 Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.3 Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities. Installation of water resource level monitoring equipment. Development of water harvesting infrastructure, especially in schools. 3.4 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.5 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.6 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 3.7 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th September 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Greenness Drought CategoriesRemarks County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th VCI-3 month as at 27th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in September 2023 but the situation has started deteriorating, with some sub- counties registering moderate vegetation deficit. Central 69.64 68.57 North 59.75 52.43 South 52.14 Ravine 74.16 Mogotio 43.44 28.89 Tiaty 37.02 30.95 Mandera County 44.39 54.14 The county recorded an improvement from normal vegetation greenness in August to above normal vegetation greenness in the September 2023. Lafey 42.24 48.41 North 38.34 49.65 Banissa 28.69 41.51 34.58 45.62 South 66.22 60.75 69.76 Turkana County 37.71 32.52 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation greenness at moderate vegetation in September from normal vegetation greenness in August. The condition in Turkana East, South and North has started worsening. 27.49 23.34 South 35.03 28.31 Loima Central 51.59 49.99 43.29 35.06 North 33.93 30.48 Marsabit County 49.26 49.06 The county remained stable (normal vegetation greenness) in September compared to the previous month. Laisamis 45.33 42.15 Moyale 40.92 44.01 North Horr 52.06 52.95 76.98 72.24 Wajir County 60.11 59.46 The county recorded stability in vegetation at above normal vegetation greenness in September compared to the previous month. Tarbaj 57.34 66.42 North 52.18 57.63 South 48.76 52.42 72.58 75.09 Eldas 63.29 66.42 44.92 49.96 Samburu County 28.77 24.37 The county recorded a worsening trend with a moderate vegetation greenness in September. 26.93 24.86 North 27.99 22.27 29.68 Garissa County 45.29 47.35 The county experienced normal vegetation greenness in September compared to previous month. However, Balambala, Garissa Township, Ijara and Fafi showed moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 25.91 24.73 Township 32.35 32.67 Ijara 39.33 44.72 37.13 39.75 Lagdera 76.73 80.69 Dadaab 56.05 53.72 Isiolo County 55.84 62.19 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness compared to previous months North 50.13 57.05 South 64.57 70.05 Tana River County 40.52 The county remained stable in normal vegetation greenness, except Bura Sub- County that recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 34.82 32.84 Galole 43.17 42.68 Garsen 43.69 Kajiado County 32.98 35.46 The county recorded a slight improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in September compared to previous months. 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 49.34 Kacheliba Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot South 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 County 56.58 70.89 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 59.08 Mbeere North 62.18 70.57 Kitui County 54.07 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 78.09 74.48 Kitui East 81.04 74.22 Kitui Rural 76.83 74.78 Kitui South 52.32 51.61 Kitui West 53.27 52.34 Mwingi Central 62.48 55.88 Mwingi North 38.41 36.35 Mwingi West 45.16 47.29 Makueni County 59.91 60.45 Kaiti 82.39 88.99 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in September compared to August. Kibwezi East 41.32 Kibwezi West 53.23 51.38 Kilome 63.19 64.99 Makueni 73.08 74.02 Mbooni 82.91 87.67 County 59.55 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in August. Buuri 61.88 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe Central 69.91 63.27 Igembe North 54.12 49.31 Igembe South 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania East 55.69 46.91 Tigania West 56.74 49.06 Nyeri County 64.96 65.87 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in September. Kieni 62.15 Mathira 63.63 70.56 Mukurweini 73.88 82.84 Nyeri Town 57.73 52.56 Othaya 67.41 82.17 77.67 84.09 Kilifi County 51.45 49.62 The county recorded Normal vegetation green in September compared to above vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 48.95 44.25 Kaloleni 64.73 59.21 Kilifi North 58.45 57.81 Kilifi South 57.48 57.91 Magarini 48.72 48.14 Malindi Rabai 60.92 60.21 Kwale County 57.57 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in September. Kinango 63.77 55.75 Lunga Lunga 67.82 55.95 Matuga 64.75 69.19 Msambweni 52.31 56.93 County 62.03 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu East 52.22 Lamu West 69.82 Taita Taveta County 33.69 32.57 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in the month of September when compared to previous months. Mwatate 36.43 34.77 Taveta 37.41 32.01 30.91 Wundanyi 25.82 23.72 Narok County 45.73 Emurua Dikirr 65.54 62.21 The county and all its sub counties recorded Normal vegetation deficit, except for Emurua Dikirr and Narok North that recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Kilgoris 49.26 40.91 Narok East 53.23 40.62 Narok North 61.53 53.98 Narok South 54.53 47.15 Narok West 53.91 43.79 West Pokot County 40.72 33.17 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 21.73 Kapenguria 47.75 39.26 Pokot South 67.06 60.85 Sigor 40.18 32.48 Tharaka Nithi County 56.56 Th county Recorded above normal vegetation greenness Tharaka Nithi 69.77 ChukaIgamb angombe 65.04 72.86 Maara 64.89 46.37 Tharaka 46.53 32.52 Laikipia Laikipia 35.31 24.85 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit as opposed to previous months the showed normal vegetation Laikipia East 30.99 20.26 Laikipia North 28.93 18.36 Laikipia West 49.34 39.21 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 6: Drought Phase Classification",
            "October_2023.pdf": "October 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The impacts of the October to December 2023 short rains season, which is characterised by El Nino phenomenon, has been realised in all Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Twenty (20) counties reported Normal drought phase in October. They include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Three (3) counties including Samburu, Laikipia and Taita Taveta are in Alert Phase but positive impacts of the ongoing rains are reversing the drought situation. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in October 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification - October 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 October 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the October 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received above average rainfall due to the ongoing El Nino episode that had onset in the second week of October. The Pastoral Northeast counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa and Pastoral Northwest counties comprising Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received the highest amounts of rainfall ranging between 71mm to 201mm. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui received relatively high amounts of rainfall in October ranging between 21mm to 201mm whereas the Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good amounts between 50mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low amounts ranging between 21mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for November 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihood zone (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted at probabilities of above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience above average rainfall while Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting at increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The Agro-pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience above average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) counties are forecasted to recieve Figure 2: October 2023 Rainfall Performance above average rainfall, while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above average rainfall with eastern parts of Marsabit and Samburu to received increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The rainfall outlook for November is illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding Some ASAL counties including Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River experienced flooding. In Mandera and Wajir counties, Bute and Elwak areas were submerged. Flooding in Garissa County resulted to washing away of a section of the Garissa - Modogashe highway. Flooding in Tana River County, especially along River Tana, led to displacement after houses were submerged. Some families lost livestock in the flooding incidents. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Despite the time lag between the precipitation period and vegetation regeneration, regeneration was evident in October. Generally, the vegetation condition in October showed great improvement when compared to September. Figure 3. November 2023 Rainfall forecast. The month of October registered improvement in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (September). This is linked to the ongoing short rains season, which has been linked to El Nino phenomenon. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Laikipia and Samburu recorded Moderate vegetation deficit with prospects of improvement. The following six (6) counties including; Turkana, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kilifi, Tana River and Garissa recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following fourteen (14) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kitui, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2023 is better when compared to the previous month, September 2023 as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides the situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for September and October 2023 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in October 2023. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Turkana (South, East) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Samburu (East, North), Tana River (Bura), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta), Laikipia (East, North, Laikipia Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot Turkana (Central, West, Loima), Wajir (West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North), Narok (Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Laikipia (Laikipia West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok Isiolo Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banissa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Kajiado (North), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West and Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi, West, Kilome, Makueni and Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central- Imenti, Igembe , Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti ,South Imenti Tigania East ,Tigania West),Nyeri(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Pokot South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse was fair to good across arid and semi-arid counties as shown in Table 2. The ongoing short rains seasons have resulted in regeneration of pasture and browse whose condition is normal compared to similar periods in normal years. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in October 2023. Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kilifi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition Thirty-six percent (36) of ASAL counties reported good livestock body condition for cattle while the others registered fair conditions. The body condition for goats was good in 59 of the counties and fair in the rest. Generally, the body condition of most livestock is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributed to due to good improvement in vegetation. The ongoing rains will enable further improvement especially for cattle as pasture and browse conditions improve. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in October. Table 3: Livestock body condition in October 2023. Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Narok Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.3 Milk Production There was an increase in the trend of milk production in October compared to the previous month in the majority of counties. Six counties showed an improving trend, with the exceptions being Garissa, Makueni, Meru and Tana River, which experienced a worsening trend as result of flooding, affecting the feeding regime. The details of milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Milk Production in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Isiolo Mandera Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kilifi Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Garissa Makueni Tana River 1.3.4 Livestock Diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle Prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) experienced above-average cattle prices in October. None of the counties recorded below long-term average prices in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The improvements are as result of enhanced rains, which have led to improved body condition. None of the County recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Narok Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices All of the counties reported prices that were above normal for the period, except Lamu and Nyeri, whose prices were below the long-term average. Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Garissa Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Wajir Kwale Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Mandera Nyeri Tana River Samburu 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi First weeding in some parts of the county. Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in markets remained high. Kwale There were no crops in farms as harvesting was complete and majority of the households were planting and preparing land for the short rains season. Kitui Normal land preparation and planting for the short rains season was ongoing in most areas across the livelihood zones. South East Marginal Agriculture Crops were at germination stage in areas which undertook early planting. Makueni Farmers across the livelihood zones were busy preparing their farms in readiness for the upcoming 2023 October to December short rains. Tharaka Nithi Most farmers were weeding their crops while a few were still expanding their land ready for the short rainy season planting 1.4.1 Maize Prices Twenty-two counties (95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 16 counties including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru and West Pokot recorded a stable trend resulting from ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvests within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in October 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Narok, Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Kilifi Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Narok 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to Water for Households Household distances to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only six counties reporting above LTA.The distances in the six counties is expected to improve with the ongoing enhanced rains. Distance to water sources in arid counties stood between 2.2 and 8.5 kilometers, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Samburu reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.2 and 7.5 kilometers, with Meru recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Taita- Taveta Kwale, Turkana Wajir Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok, Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Wajir West- Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta 1.5.2 Access to Water for Livestock The livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only 6 counties reporting above LTA but on improving trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 6.8 to 14.9 kilometers, with Baringo reporting the shortest distance and Garissa reporting the longest. The distance in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 and 8.3 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Kitui the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Garissa Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Narok Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Thara Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Garissa Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Narok Makueni 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were favourable and on improving trend compared to the previous month, with 65 of counties reporting improving trend. The improving terms of trade are as result of improved livestock prices, coupled with ongoing harvests across the counties. The terms of trade are likely to improve as result of ongoing enhanced rain as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Isiolo Mandera Narok Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Pokot Turkana Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta West-Pokot Meru Kwale Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Tukana Wajir Garissa Makueni 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation in ASAL counties is generally stable and expected to improve with ongoing enhanced rains. The current poor health and nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, hence livelihoods are still on recovery mode, and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Taita Taveta Pokot Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu River Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Samburu, Taita Taveta and Laikipia are classified at the Alert drought phase while 20 counties - Baringo, Nyeri, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in October 2023. Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok Tharaka Nithi, Pokot, Nyeri(Kieni) Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni,, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi Alert Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting households exposed to flood risks. b) Livestock sector Monitoring on livestock disease outbreaks, especially those associated with wet conditions. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. d) Health and nutrition sector Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). e) Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource-use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. g) Coordination Sensitise communities and enhance awareness on enhanced rains and associated negative impacts. Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) for effective response coordination. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th October 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Greenness Drought CategoriesRemarks COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Above normal vegetation greenness. 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness. 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit. 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit. Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, with improvement registered across the county. Central 68.57 73.32 North 52.43 South 54.32 Ravine 68.81 Mogotio 28.89 39.24 Tiaty 30.95 44.35 MANDERA County 54.14 60.57 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness compared to previous month of September. Lafey 48.41 54.54 North 49.65 58.58 Banissa 41.51 56.11 45.62 56.01 South 73.54 69.76 TURKANA County 32.52 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in October compared 23.34 28.07 to moderate vegetation in September, with an improvement in vegetation. The condition in Turkana East and South remained stable. South 28.31 29.72 Loima 41.47 Central 49.99 47.81 35.06 38.85 North 30.48 32.42 MARSABIT County 49.06 50.08 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October compared to Normal vegetation greenness in September. Improvement was experienced across the county. Laisamis 42.15 43.28 Moyale 44.01 43.58 North Horr 52.95 54.53 72.24 68.62 WAJIR County 59.46 55.01 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in October. Tarbaj 66.42 67.32 North 57.63 57.41 South 52.42 53.42 75.09 47.11 Eldas 66.42 63.26 49.96 58.63 SAMBURU County 28.77 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to previous month. 26.93 North 27.99 27.59 31.81 GARISSA County 47.35 46.09 When compared to the previous month, the vegetation greenness in the county remained stable. Balambala and Garissa Township had a moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 24.73 21.49 Township 32.67 30.89 Ijara 44.72 56.22 39.75 39.61 Lagdera 80.69 69.59 Dadaab 53.72 ISIOLO County 62.19 59.52 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in October compared to the previous month of September. North 57.05 55.46 South 70.05 65.72 TANA RIVER County 38.88 The county recorded normal vegetation deficit in October compared to the previous month, except Bura Sub-County, which recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 32.84 28.38 Galole 42.68 Garsen 47.48 KAJIADO County 35.46 44.72 Vegetation greenness was normal in October compared to the previous month. Kajiado Central and East saw a slight improvement from Moderate to Normal Vegetation. Central 28.99 37.63 32.83 38.36 North 45.74 52.73 South 35.41 40.05 58.11 LAIKIPIA County 24.85 27.19 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 20.26 28.06 North 18.36 20.41 39.21 39.46 THARAKA NITHI County 56.56 56.46 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review compared to previous months. Chuka 69.77 75.87 Maara 72.86 Tharaka 42.39 POKOT County 33.17 42.91 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review as compared to moderate vegetation deficit in September. Slight improvement was witnessed at the sub-counties from moderate to normal vegetation. Kacheliba 21.73 35.13 Kapenguria 49.01 Pokot south 60.85 62.11 Sigor 32.48 40.59 County 61.49 69.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 69.45 79.56 Mbeere north 65.71 Mbeere south 52.81 60.36 Runyenjes 75.47 87.22 KITUI County 54.07 71.91 The county recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central 74.48 62.29 Kitui east 74.22 73.16 Kitui rural 74.78 48.81 Kitui south 51.61 54.99 Kitui west 52.34 Mwingi central 55.88 35.33 Mwingi north 36.35 55.41 Mwingi west 47.29 71.91 MAKUENI County 60.45 59.84 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October compared to September. Kaiti 88.99 87.62 Kibwezi east 41.32 41.05 Kibwezi west 51.38 50.05 Kilome 64.99 65.39 Makueni 74.02 73.83 Mbooni 87.67 86.55 County 59.55 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub- counties. Buuri 50.75 Central Imenti 67.44 56.66 Igembe central 71.29 72.73 Igembe north 63.27 62.32 Igembe south 49.31 55.11 North Imenti 64.01 63.39 South Imenti 74.55 73.79 Tigania east 73.11 79.88 Tigania west 46.91 53.62 NYERI County 65.87 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October and September, with stability across the county showing stability. Kieni 55.22 Mathira 70.56 73.09 Mukurweini 82.84 80.53 Nyeri town 52.56 51.46 Othaya 82.17 85.78 84.09 81.66 KILIFI County 49.62 41.72 The county maintained Normal vegetation green in the month of October, as compared to September. However, Ganze Sub- County deteriorated Ganze 44.25 32.89 Kaloleni 59.21 47.16 from normal vegetation to moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 57.81 53.66 Kilifi south 57.91 53.78 Magarini 48.14 41.52 Malindi 53.29 Rabai 60.21 54.33 KWALE County 57.57 51.16 The vegetation condition index recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in both October, and September respectively. Kinango 55.75 46.09 Lunga 55.95 51.34 Matuga 69.19 70.57 Msambweni 56.93 60.64 County 70.39 The county and all sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu east 54.62 Lamu west 69.82 79.51 TAITA TAVETA County 32.57 29.22 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to the previous months. However, Taveta sub-county recorded worsening trend from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Mwatate 34.77 29.05 Taveta 30.93 30.91 28.78 Wundanyi 23.72 26.64 NAROK County 45.73 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October as opposed to normal vegetation greenness. This indicated an improvement. Emurua Dikirr 62.21 75.88 Kilgoris 40.91 57.84 Narok east 40.62 43.35 Narok north 53.98 46.37 Narok south 47.15 58.43 Narok west 43.79 63.92 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "November_2023.pdf": "November 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Impacts of the October-December short rains season, which is characterised by an El Nio phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, have been realised in all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties. Based on the drought phase classification, all the 23 counties1 reported normal conditions in November. An assessment of the impact of 2023 March-May Long Rains season on food and nutrition security projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance during the October 2023 to January 2024 period would drop to 1.5 million from 2.8 million in July due to good performance of the Short Rains season. However, the negative effects of the enhanced rainfall continue to undermine food and nutrition security situation following the flooding reported in various ASAL counties. The situation is further compounded by destruction of road and communication network, which has limited the flow of food and other essential commodities in local markets. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in November 2023. 1 Samburu, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo Figure 1: Drought phase classification in November 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 November 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the November 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several areas in ASAL counties received above average rainfall due to El Nino conditions that continued with high intensity in various parts. Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties - Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui - received the highest rainfall amounts in November ranging between 200 to 1,000mm. The Pastoral Northeast counties, which include Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa, also received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 300 to 400mm. Pastoral Northwest counties (Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu) received high rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm. However, parts Turkana County did not receive any rainfall. The Agropastoral cluster, including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm while the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received relatively high amounts of rainfall ranging between 101 to 500mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 December 2023 Rainfall Outlook The forecast for the Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region comprising Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa counties indicates probability of near-avaerage to above- average rainfall. Parts of Southeast Marginal Agriculture zone, which includes Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, are forecasted to experience above-average rainfall while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone counties (Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and Baringo) are expected to experience above-average rainfall. The forecast for Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale - indicates above-average rainfall, while the Pastoral Northwest region (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) is projected to receive near- average to above-average rainfall, with the eastern parts of Marsabit, northern Samburu and the entire Turkana County set to experience near-average rainfall. Figure 3 shows rainfall forecast for December 2023. Figure 2: November 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.3 Impact of Floods Most ASAL counties, including Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River, experienced heavy flooding. Out of 160 casualties in the country as at early December, two thirds were reported in ASAL counties, especially Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo and Garissa. Flooding in Garissa and Tana River counties resulted in displacement of households, property damage and destruction of infrastructure such as roads and health facilities. For instance, sections of critical roads such as the Garissa - Modogashe road and the main road linking Hola in Tana River and Garissa were washed away, curtailing transport and supply of essential commodities. Floods also disrupted the movement of goods to Wajir and Mandera counties, leading to hike in commodity prices. Figure 3: December 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The enhanced rainfall in November continued to improve vegetation condition as regeneration is noted across ASAL counties. Consequently, none of the ASAL counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Only one county - Taita Taveta recorded overall Moderate vegetation deficit, thus requiring close monitoring and contingency planning. A few sub-counties in three more counties also registered moderate deficit. These are Balambala and Township in Garissa, Bura in Tana River and Kajiado South. Seven counties, including Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, recorded Normal vegetation greenness while the remaining 15 ASAL counties recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. These are Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Kwale. Generally, the vegetation condition in November showed great improvement compared to October as illustrated in Fig 4. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for October and November 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2023 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in November 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Taita Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta) Normal vegetation greenness Samburu Tana River Laikipia Kitui Garissa Kilifi Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, North), Wajir (South, West), Samburu (East, West), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West), Nyeri (Nyeri Town), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo Mandera Turkana Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Kwale Narok Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Tiaty), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banissa, West), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku, Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Samburu (North) Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere, North, South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West) Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition About 82 of ASAL counties recorded good pasture condition while the rest posted fair condition. The browse condition was good in 87 of counties and fair in the rest as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are normal as compared to normal years and compared to October. The ongoing Short Rains season has led to full growth of pasture and browse. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - November 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kajiado Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the body condition of most livestock species is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributable to continued improvement in vegetation condition. The current body condition for cattle was good at 61 and fair at 39 in ASAL counties. Body condition for goats was good at 74 and fair at 26 in the arid and semi- arid counties. The good performance of the ongoing rains will lead to further improvement of livestock body conditions as pasture and browse conditions improve further. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in November. Table 3: Livestock body condition in November 2023 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production The month of November noted an increase in the trend of milk production compared to October in majority of the counties. However, three counties - Garissa, Meru and Kajiado which showed a worsening trend. On the other hand, Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir counties above normal range milk production levels. However, its worth noting that milk production in 11 ASAL counties is below the average for a normal year due to low livestock numbers. These are Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi , Kwale, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot. Table 4 shows detailed milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 4: Milk production - November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Isiolo Makueni Mandera Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kitui Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Laikipia Narok Wajir Pokot Garissa Kajiado 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot counties. These include unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Foot and Mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) recorded above-average cattle prices during the month of November. No county recorded below long-term average prices compared to similar periods during a normal year. An improving trend was observed in Embu, Garissa, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties. However, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5 below. Table 5: Cattle prices in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita- Taveta Narok Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat prices All of the counties reported prices above the long-term average. Stability was observed in market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition was driven by availability of browse and water. However, prices in Kajiado declined due to large volumes of goats presented in markets. Table 6: Goat prices in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Kajiado Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Narok Samburu Tharaka - Nithi Turkana Wajir Mandera Kilifi Kwale 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current status of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Most farmers in all the livelihood zones have planted maize crop. Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded and supply in markets remained high. Agropastoral Baringo Farmers in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone were harvesting green grams and other short-term crops. Most farmers in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone also planted tomatoes, millet and sorghum. Laikipia The main activity on farms across the county was planting and weeding for early grown crops. Crops were at different stages and exhibiting good condition. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were past knee-high stages for maize, while beans were in fair-to-good condition. Pokot The main crops planted were beans and potatoes, which were planted in the Mixed Farming and Agropastoral zones. Beans were at pod formation stage, with harvests expected beginning December. 1.4.1 Maize prices Above long-term average maize prices were recorded in 22 counties. However, 13 counties, including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru, Kitui, Kwale and Laikipia, recorded a stable trend as result of ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed in November could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvesting within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. The counties with a worsening trend are among those that experienced floods, affecting markets. Table 8: Maize prices in November 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water sources in 22 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 20 counties. In November, distance to water sources in arid counties was between 1.6 and 7.7 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.5 and 4.6 kilometres, with Meru recording lowest and Makueni recording highest distances. The trend in distances covered by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Narok Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Baringo Kilifi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kitui Kwale Laikipia Garissa Marsabit Tana River Wajir Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Mandera Narok 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock distance to water sources in 18 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 21 counties. Only Laikipia County registered above long term average distances while Kwale and Mandera reported a stable trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 2.7 to 10.9 kilometres, with Isiolo reporting the shortest distance and Mandera the longest. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.6 and 6.1 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Baringo the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsen Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Laikipia Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale 1.6 Terms of Trade About 39 of ASAL counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Wajir and Makueni, recorded below long-term average Terms of Trade, indicating less favorable terms of trade. However, most of these counties recorded an improving trend, Garissa, Kwale, Tana River and Wajir registering a worsening state as illustrated in Table 11. The notable high cereal prices in most of the counties continue to undermine household purchasing power. Table 11: Terms of Trade in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade Isiolo, Kilifi, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot Marsabit, Mandera Kitui Kwale Laikipia Samburu Tana River Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Lamu, Wajir Makueni Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Lamu, Taita Taveta,West Pokot, Embu, Kilifi Kajiado Makueni Garissa Kwale Tana River Wajir 1.7 Health and Nutrition The health and nutrition situation in majority of the Asals counties was above the long-term average, with only eight counties on a worsening trend. These include Garissa, Makueni, Kwale, Kilifi, Nyeri, Meru, Baringo and Tharaka Nithi. The residual effects of previous failed seasons continue to lead to poor nutrition status in these counties. The local livelihoods are still in recovery mode. The situation is further affected by low milk availability at household level due to reduced livestock numbers and current extreme weather variability as evidenced by Elnino conditions. The nutrition status is as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle upper arm circumference - MUAC-) in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Nyeri Tana River Turkana Mandera Kajiado Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Tana- River Turkana Wajir Garissa Makueni Kwale Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Tharaka- Nithi 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 counties are classified at the Normal drought phase. Nine of the counties continue to show an improving trend as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in November 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting households affected by floods. 2. Livestock sector: Vaccination against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever; Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate El-Nino response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th November 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 60.23 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Mogotio maintained normal vegetation greenness. Central 73.32 71.64 North 67.51 South 54.32 61.33 Ravine 68.81 62.19 Mogotio 39.24 42.35 Tiaty 44.35 59.92 MANDERA County 60.57 73.83 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness compared October. Lafey 54.54 71.43 North 58.58 71.92 Banissa 56.11 67.04 56.01 72.45 South 73.54 84.95 65.57 TURKANA County 50.82 During the month under review, the county recorded improved to above-normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. 28.07 South 29.72 41.24 Loima 41.47 60.32 Central 47.81 50.72 38.85 64.19 North 32.42 47.27 MARSABI County 50.08 65.48 The county recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to October. Laisamis 43.28 Moyale 43.58 57.49 North Horr 54.53 70.31 68.62 81.79 WAJIR County 55.01 55.45 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in November, remaining stable. Tarbaj 67.32 73.54 North 57.41 73.14 South 53.42 45.28 47.11 45.14 Eldas 63.26 52.29 58.63 56.82 SAMBURU County 45.56 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit in October to normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 42.28 North 27.59 31.81 43.22 GARISSA County 46.09 46.89 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness in November. Balambala 21.49 25.92 Township 30.89 29.39 Ijara 56.22 39.61 43.41 Lagdera 69.59 51.69 Dadaab 43.62 ISIOLO County 59.52 55.06 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in November, which was stable when compared to the previous month. North 55.46 51.25 South 65.72 60.89 RIVER County 38.88 38.78 Normal vegetation deficit in November, with Bura Subcounty registering moderate vegetation greenness. 28.38 30.01 Galole 37.34 Garsen 47.48 47.11 KAJIADO County 44.72 44.63 Kajiado county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness the previous month to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Central 37.63 36.47 38.36 37.88 North 52.73 55.23 South 32.09 58.11 62.07 LAIKIPIA County 27.19 Improvement in vegetation greenness form moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 28.06 47.75 North 20.41 37.74 39.46 44.17 THARAKA NITHI County 56.46 54.63 Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review compared to previous months. Chuka 75.87 69.31 Maara 59.71 Tharaka 42.39 47.47 POKOT County 42.91 57.97 Improvement in vegetation greenness from normal the previous month to above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kacheliba 35.13 52.07 Kapenguria 49.01 62.69 Pokot south 62.11 Sigor 40.59 59.03 County 69.41 68.88 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.56 71.18 Mbeere north 76.35 Mbeere south 60.36 62.09 Runyenjes 87.22 74.85 KITUI County 71.91 44.07 The county deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kitui central 62.29 60.22 Kitui east 73.16 50.95 Kitui rural 48.81 59.92 Kitui south 54.99 41.46 Kitui west 47.46 Mwingi central 35.33 39.07 Mwingi north 55.41 42.27 Mwingi west 71.91 52.18 MAKUENI County 59.84 50.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to October. Kaiti 87.62 75.76 Kibwezi east 41.05 35.76 Kibwezi 50.05 Kilome 65.39 57.04 Makueni 73.83 58.21 Mbooni 86.55 66.38 County 60.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across all the sub-counties. Buuri 50.75 Central Imenti 56.66 65.05 Igembe central 72.73 64.63 Igembe north 62.32 63.75 Igembe south 55.11 62.81 North Imenti 63.39 65.05 South Imenti 73.79 63.93 Tigania east 79.88 58.82 Tigania west 53.62 58.99 NYERI County 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kieni 55.22 Mathira 73.09 58.61 Mukurweini 80.53 62.89 Nyeri town 51.46 48.76 Othaya 85.78 72.98 81.66 67.42 KILIFI County 41.72 39.98 The county retained Normal vegetation greenness in November. However, Ganze Sub-county remained the same at moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 32.89 33.15 Kaloleni 47.16 46.43 Kilifi north 53.66 51.96 Kilifi south 53.78 48.46 Magarini 41.52 Malindi 53.29 47.81 Rabai 54.33 50.52 KWALE County 51.16 51.67 Above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to the previous month. Kinango 46.09 43.99 Lunga Lunga 51.34 60.77 Matuga 70.57 65.54 Msambweni 60.64 63.91 County 70.39 74.97 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in November. Lamu east 54.62 61.77 Lamu west 79.51 TAITA TAVETA County 29.22 26.75 The county retained moderate vegetation deficit in November. Mwatate 29.05 26.18 Taveta 30.93 28.78 27.42 Wundanyi 26.64 26.44 NAROK County 64.27 Above normal vegetation greenness in November when compared to the last month of October Emurua Dikirr 75.88 81.97 Kilgoris 57.84 68.91 Narok east 43.35 47.76 Narok north 46.37 45.91 Narok south 58.43 64.52 Narok west 63.92 76.62 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "December_2023.pdf": "December 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Majority of the Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties experienced rainfall over the first ten days of December, albeit with reduced intensity compared to November. However, most of the ASAL counties registered cessation of the October-November-December rains during the month under review, except. Consequently, all the counties were categorised under the Normal drought phase based on the range of indicators monitored (environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators fell within usual ranges). The assessment of the impact of 2023 Long Rains on food and nutrition security conducted last July 2023 projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance October 2023 through January 2024 period would be 1.5 million due to above normal rainfall. However, negative impacts of the enhanced rainfall in some counties has undermined the food and nutrition security situation. Response interventions by the Government other stakeholders mitigated negative impacts to a considerable extent. The functioning of markets as well as flow of food and other commodities is returning to normal across the ASAL counties. The planned multi-sectoral assessment of the performance of the October-December short rains on food and nutrition security will provide the actual number of people in need of humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in December 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 December 2023 Rainfall Performance The month of December normally marks the cessation of the short rains season. Analysis of the rainfall performance in December indicates that most ASAL counties received less rainfall compared November. Generally, weather conditions were prevalent in most places, with a few areas over the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region experiencing occasional rainfall that was near to above average. Marsabit, Narok and Wajir recorded rainfall amounts that were below 25 of normal, with Mandera not receiving any rainfall over that period. Garissa, Laikipia, Moyale and Nyeri counties recorded amounts that were 28-37 of normal, while rainfall reported in some parts of Kilifi such as Malindi and Embu was about 60 of the long term mean. Among the areas that experienced near-normal rainfall ranging from 90 to 115 of normal were Voi, Meru and Kitui. Some counties experienced above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. These include parts of Kilifi such as Mtwapa and Msabaha, and Lamu whose percentages ranged from 165 to 180 of the usual rainfall. The highest monthly total rainfall exceeding 225mm was recorded in Embu and Taita Taveta counties. Additionally, isolated storms were witnessed in some areas, especially in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) cluster such as Kitui, where rainfall ranging from 125 to 135mm was recorded in one day. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2024 The rainfall outlook for January is as shown in Figure 3. Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail for most of the month over several parts. Most parts of the Northern Pastoral cluster are expected to remain generally dry, though a few areas may experience occasional rainfall during the last week of the month. These include a few areas in Narok (near-to-above normal), the south-eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta), Nyeri, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu and the coastal region (Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Southern parts of Tana River). A few areas over Southern Garissa are likely to receive occasional rainfall from the third week of the month. Light to moderate rainfall is expected during the fourth week of January in a few areas over West Pokot, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia. Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to experience temperatures ranging from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius, with a few areas anticipated to receive rainfall at the beginning of the month and over the fourth week. Intermittent rainfall likely to be near-to-above the long-term average amounts is expected across January in Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and eastern parts of Laikipia. Sunny conditions are forecasted for counties in the Pastoral Northeast cluster, with a few areas in Southern Garissa bordering Lamu likely to experience occasional rainfall from the third week. Near-to-above long-term average rainfall amount is expected in the Southeastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta) and Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) over January 2024. Figure 3: Rainfall forecast for January 2024 1.2 Vegetation Condition Significant improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed across December in all the ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented either normal or above normal vegetation greenness. This was a notable improvement from the previous period, especially in Taita Taveta which had moderate vegetation deficit in November. All counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while a few sub-counties including Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township) and Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) reported normal vegetation greenness as illustrated in Table 1. Generally, the vegetation condition in December depicted further improvement from November as shown in Figure 4. November 2023 December 2023 Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition in November and December 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of December 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1 disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia (105) Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine,Tiaty,South), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, East, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North, West) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse improved further with all the counties reporting good and above normal, save for Turkana and West Pokot as shown in Table 2. Consequently, dense canopies of browse were observed across all the areas, which was attributed to the enhanced rainfall, leading to massive vegetation regeneration. Table 2: Pasture and Browse Condition - December 2023 Pasture Browse Turkana West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado, Meru Kilifi, Makueni, Nyeri Narok, Samburu Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Tana River, Embu Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Samburu Turkana, West Pokot Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta, Baringo Laikipia, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Nyeri, Tana River Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Improved forage availability resulted in significant improvement of the body condition of all livestock species in December compared to November. Across majority of the counties, the body condition score for both cattle and small stock (sheep and goats) as captured through the pictorial evaluation tool (PET) was 4-5, implying good-to-very good body condition (Table 3). Reduced trekking distance to water sources resulting from adequate recharge of open water sources in close proximity to grazing areas also contributed to the favourable livestock body condition. The observed livestock body condition was above the long term range due to the good quality of forage. Table 3: Livestock Body Condition - December 2023 Cattle GoatsSheep West Pokot Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Samburu, Turkana Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi, Embu Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Kitui Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Mandera Kwale, Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production About 52 of ASAL counties recorded an increase in milk production in December, with approximately 35 reporting unchanged milk production levels. However, Samburu, Lamu and West Pokot reported a decline in milk production, which is attributed to livestock diseases (suspected foot and mouth in West Pokot), diminishing pasture in some sites, migration of livestock from insecure areas, low livestock numbers occasioned by mortalities, among other factors (Table 4). Milk produced in approximately 39 of the counties was below the respective long-term average while about 17 of the counties reported unchanged quantities across the two periods. Notably, 44 of the counties recorded production that was above the usual range for the period. Stable or increase in milk production in the aforementioned 61 of the counties could be attributed to the increasing number of lactating herds and improved yield level per livestock occasioned by forage and water availability within shorter trekking distances. Table 4: Milk production - December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Lamu, Isiolo Mandera Turkana Wajir, Kitui Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri, Taita- Taveta, Kajiado Garissa Marsabit Samburu Tana River Embu, Kilifi Kwale, Meru West Pokot Garissa, Meru Isiolo, Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Tana River Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Turkana Wajir Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Samburu West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub-counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso ward, Samburu County. Equally outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo(Marsabit). 1.3.5 Cattle prices A significant proportion of counties (43) recorded an improvement in cattle prices compared to November, with roughly 52 reporting prices that were typically the same as those recorded in December (Table 5). On the other hand, the reported market prices of cattle across all the counties were above the corresponding long-term average in December, except in West Pokot (due to the ripple effect of market disruption occasioned by imposition of quarantine to contain the spread of foot and mouth disease) while the one recorded in Nyeri and Taita Taveta was at par with the respective normal price. The observed positive trend in cattle prices could be attributed to the low traded volumes driven by pastoralists holding onto their valued assets and remarkably improved cattle body condition occasioned by availability of pasture in majority of the areas. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Embu Tana River, Narok Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta, Nyeri West- Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Samburu, Embu Tana River Turkana Kwale, Makueni Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Lamu Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Meru Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices There was a notable improvement in the price of goats across majority of the ASAL counties over the period under review, with 48 reporting an upward trend while 43 reported stability (Table 6). Due to the increased influx to the market with the anticipated cessation of the short rains, a negative trend was reported in Garissa and Laikipia. With respect to the long-term average price of goat, the reported prices during the month of December were above by a significant margin exceeding 20 in majority of the areas. The major factors influencing the observed price improvement include high demand triggered by low supplies in the market occasioned by reluctance by pastoralists to sell, market disruption as a consequence of the prevailing ElNio phenomenon, and considerably improved goat body condition driven by availability of quality palatable browse were. Table 6: Goat prices - December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Narok Isiolo, Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir, Kitui Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Isiolo, Makueni Mandera, Embu Marsabit Tana River Turkana Kajiado, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Samburu Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu, Narok West Pokot Garissa Laikipia 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and the Southeast Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of Tana, Daua and Turkwel rivers, among others. Generally, crop production activities were affected to a large extent by the flooding witnessed, with over 50,398 acres of farmland destroyed. The table below illustrates the situation across select ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Southeast Marginal Agriculture Kitui Crop performance was largely affected by effects of leaching, with harvest projected to drop by about 50. Cases of pests resistant to drugs on legumes, particularly affecting cow peas and green grams, were reported. Makueni Farmers along flooded rivers and upper zones of the county incurred crop losses due to water logging, with approximately 37,000 acres of irrigated land destroyed by floods. Presence of Fall Armyworm was also reported in Mbooni Sub-county. Maize crop was stunted in parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North and lower parts of Igembe Central, with below-average harvest expected. The stunted maize could be attributed to water logging due to the heavy rains received. Similarly, beans in various parts were destroyed by the floods experienced. Pastoral Northeast Garissa There was decline in area under crop production by over 30 due to the effect of floods and farmers also incurred losses in terms of destroyed irrigation infrastructure and loss of livelihoods. River More than 7,285 acres of cropland under rain-fed production had been submerged by flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to the crops due to lack of oxygen. 1.4.1 Maize prices About 30 of the counties reported a decline in maize prices, while 57 recorded price stabilisation compared to November as Tana River, Embu and Laikipia counties reported increased prices across December (Table 8). The price increase in aforementioned counties was due to the negative impacts of the El Nino phenomenon that resulted in the counties being cut off from external supply sources, low crop yield in some areas attributable to the impact of pests, and other macro-economic factors. Concerningly, the reported prices across all the ASAL counties was higher than the corresponding long-term average prices for the period under analysis, except in Kwale and Lamu. Table 8: Maize prices in December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Meru, Nyeri Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Garissa, Nyeri Marsabit Wajir, Kwale Makueni, Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Isiolo, Meru Mandera Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households The trekking distance to water sources by households majorly remained unchanged in about 52 of counties but slightly increased in 30 (Table 9). The distances ranged between 0.9 and 7.3 kilometres compared to the previous 1.2 to 7.7 kilometres, with the longest distance of 7.3 kilometres and 6.2 kilometres being recorded in Mandera and Marsabit respectively while the lowest of 0.9 kilometres was reported in Meru. Contrary to the previous month, households trekked over shorter distances than the usual to access water across majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 9. The slight reduction in trekking distance relative to the previous month could be attributed to the improved water availability occasioned by adequate recharge (averaging 90-100) in open water sources. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources - December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Turkana Kwale Nyeri, Taita- Taveta Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Makueni Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Makueni Nyeri, Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Mandera Tana River Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit Samburu Laikipia Narok West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances were relatively the same as the previous month. Consequently, the distance ranged between one to 9.5 kilometres compared to 0.6-10.9 kilometres previously. The longest distance of 9.5 kilometres was recorded in Mandera while the shortest at one kilometre was reported in Meru. However, about 35 of the counties recorded a marginal increase mainly attributed to insecurity and high prevalence of livestock diseases in some grazing zones. Additionally, the prevailing distance was lower than the corresponding normal distance that livestock usually trek to access water in all the counties, except Laikipia and West Pokot (Table 10). Regeneration of forage encompassing shrubs and herbaceous species in sites around water points necessitated livestock to graze within those zones, hence the witnessed trend. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Laikipia West Pokot Baringo Turkana Kitui Makueni Nyeri, Taita- Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Tana River Narok Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Wajir, Embu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Garissa, Meru Marsabit Samburu Turkana Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade improved and remained unchanged compared to the previous month in 57 and 30 of the counties respectively while Tana River, Laikipia and Kitui recorded a slight deterioration (Table 11). Therefore, pastoral households in the latter three counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavourable terms of trade, implying they accessed reduced amount of maize through use of proceeds obtained from their most valued assets. The observed negative trend in these three counties could majorly be attributed to the rising cost of maize over December due to destruction of the road infrastructure following the enhanced rainfall, thereby affecting normal market functionality. Table 11: Terms of trade in December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Makueni, Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Kitui Tana River Kajiado, Meru Laikipia, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir Marsabit, Kilifi Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Samburu Kwale West Pokot Tana River Kitui Laikipia The terms of trade remained below the usual range in 48 of the counties and above the long- term average in 43. Overall, there was an improvement despite the household purchasing power remaining low in the select counties, majorly constrained by the impacts of the El Nino phenomenon. 1.7. Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend and stabilised in about 52 and 43 of the counties respectively but worsened in West Pokot (Table 12). The stable to negative trend in the listed counties could be attributed to the high disease burden such as diarrhea prevalence among children below five years, reduced milk consumption and poor dietary diversity occasioned by the high cost of living and El Nino phenomenon that hindered access to markets, and the general downscaling of nutrition-sensitive interventions. The nutrition situation remains a major concern in about 39 of the counties, which are currently reporting malnutrition rates outside the usual range. These include: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River, Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni and Nyeri (Kieni). Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement in December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kilifi Garissa, Kitui Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni Marsabit Lamu, Meru Kajiado Mandera Isiolo, Kwale, Samburu Wajir, Embu, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Meru Garissa, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera, Wajir, Nyeri Kilifi, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Embu, Kwale, Kajiado West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with an improving to stable trend as shown in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification - December 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Marsabit, Isiolo, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Meru North, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Nyeri, Lamu, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Kitui, Embu Turkana, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions. Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the drought situation given the expected dry conditions between Jan-March 2024. Food and safety Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. Health nutrition sector Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogue and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st December 2023. County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th VCI-3 month as at 31st Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 60.23 62.35 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties, except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. Central 71.64 North 67.51 67.05 South 61.33 65.01 Ravine 62.19 52.93 Mogotio 42.35 47.29 Tiaty 59.92 65.49 Mandera County 73.83 84.47 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Lafey 71.43 86.16 North 71.92 87.08 Banissa 67.04 72.45 82.27 South 84.95 65.57 72.11 Turkana County 50.82 Save for Turkana East, all Sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness, including Turkana South and North whose vegetation condition was within the normal band over the previous month. 40.12 South 41.24 54.15 Loima 60.32 77.64 Central 50.72 50.47 64.19 North 47.27 55.57 Marsabit County 65.48 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Laisamis 84.16 Moyale 57.49 77.37 North Horr 70.31 84.34 81.79 96.65 Wajir County 55.45 62.77 Continued improvement in the condition of vegetation was observed over December, with the vegetation greenness ranging from Normal to Above Normal across the respective Sub-counties. Tarbaj 73.54 76.59 North 73.14 82.63 South 45.28 57.03 45.14 46.92 Eldas 52.29 49.72 Wajir East 56.82 68.13 Samburu County 45.56 65.49 All Sub-counties reported above normal vegetation greenness and that represented a remarkable shift from the normal vegetation greenness previously noted across the county. 42.28 62.92 North 71.27 43.22 55.83 Garissa County 46.89 61.21 Considerable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December, with the vegetation greenness being above normal across most sub-counties. Only Balambala and Township Sub-counties reported normal vegetation greenness, a shift from the moderate vegetation deficit observed across November. Balambala 25.92 49.41 Township 29.39 46.37 Ijara 74.14 43.41 63.06 Lagdera 51.69 57.01 Dadaab 43.62 55.17 Isiolo County 55.06 67.15 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties. North 51.25 65.63 South 60.89 69.47 Tana River County 38.78 58.99 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Bura Sub-county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation deficit reported in November. 30.01 51.38 Galole 37.34 58.16 Garsen 47.11 65.97 Kajiado County 44.63 Central 36.47 59.72 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness, with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado South which was experiencing moderate vegetation deficit across November. 37.88 59.61 North 55.23 64.33 South 32.09 61.43 62.07 71.51 County 68.88 70.62 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties. Manyatta 71.18 70.92 Mbeere North 76.35 75.84 Mbeere South 62.09 67.23 Runyenjes 74.85 71.14 Kitui County 44.07 57.79 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the sub-counties. Central 60.22 63.59 50.95 60.48 Rural 59.92 64.73 South 41.46 58.01 47.46 58.54 Mwingi Central 39.07 53.41 Mwingi North 42.27 55.17 Mwingi West 52.18 66.23 Makueni County 50.32 62.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Remarkable recovery in vegetation condition was witnessed in Kibwezi East Sub county over the reference period. Kaiti 75.76 76.26 Kibwezi East 35.76 53.73 Kibwezi West 63.69 Kilome 57.04 64.37 Makueni 58.21 67.22 Mbooni 66.38 67.62 County 60.49 67.23 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties Buuri 65.94 Central-Imenti 65.05 65.59 Igembe Central 64.63 70.82 Igembe North 63.75 76.87 Igembe South 62.81 66.35 North Imenti 65.05 58.54 South Imenti 63.93 63.59 Tigania East 58.82 64.48 Tigania West 58.99 60.44 Nyeri County Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties, with improvement being noted in Nyeri Town Sub- county. Kieni 63.65 Mathira 58.61 59.27 Mukurweini 62.89 63.33 Nyeri Town 48.76 59.13 Othaya 72.98 67.98 67.42 60.24 Kilifi County 39.98 54.64 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all sub-counties. Ganze 33.15 53.73 Kaloleni 46.43 61.48 Kilifi North 51.96 57.64 Kilifi South 48.46 52.43 Magarini 53.84 Malindi 47.81 56.16 Rabai 50.52 58.55 Kwale County 51.67 65.67 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties, with Kinango equally reporting a significant shift in the condition of vegetation. Kinango 43.99 62.45 Lunga Lunga 60.77 73.94 Matuga 65.54 63.46 Msambweni 63.91 69.99 County 74.97 76.63 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties. Lamu East 61.77 69.15 Lamu West 80.96 Taita Taveta County 26.75 51.44 As a consequence of the enhanced rainfall received in the county, remarkable recovery in the condition of vegetation from the previous period (when moderate vegetation deficit was recorded) was reported over all the sub-counties. Mwatate 26.18 Taveta 46.75 27.42 54.14 Wundanyi 26.44 56.89 Narok County 64.27 73.36 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 81.97 91.63 Kilgoris 68.91 Narok East 47.76 62.44 Narok North 45.91 58.95 Narok South 64.52 Narok West 76.62 82.96 West Pokot County 57.97 64.29 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties. Kacheliba 52.07 59.81 Kapenguria 62.69 67.14 Pokot South 68.85 Sigor 59.03 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 54.63 58.25 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Sub counties similar to the previous month, with some slight improvement being noted in Tharaka Sub- county. Chuka 69.31 71.78 Maara 59.71 62.45 Tharaka 47.47 51.81 Laikipia County 62.22 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all sub-counties. Laikipia East 47.75 71.98 Laikipia North 37.74 63.25 Laikipia West 44.17 55.57 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges"
        },
        "DEWS_2024": {
            "January_2024.pdf": "January 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The range of environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators monitored by the national drought early warning system fell within their usual ranges following the good performance of the 2023 short rains season. Consequently, All the 23 counties classified as Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs) were categorised under the Normal phase in January. However, the emergence of other risks associated with the enhanced rainfall such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) reported in Marsabit and Wajir counties continued to undermine full drought and food security recovery. The functioning of markets, flow of food and other commodities almost stabilised across the ASAL counties during the month under review. However, upsurge of livestock diseases such as RVF, Foot and Mouth Disease, among others, may restrict livestock movements to these markets, thus disrupting functionality. The ongoing multi-sectoral assessment of the impact of the 2023 short rains on food and nutrition security will provide a clearer situation update, including the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in January 2024. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 January 2024 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the northern sector except a few areas over Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Kitui, Tana river, Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and West pokot where rainfall was experienced for a few days. southern sector country experienced rainfall that was near to above average except over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands where below average rainfall was recorded. The month was characterized by isolated storms over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, Southeastern lowlands, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, South Rift Valley, the South Coast (Kwale) and Northeast (Isiolo). 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for February 2024 The rainfall outlook for February is as shown in Figure 3. The forecast indicates that the Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo Garissa counties experience generally sunny and dry conditions during the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above average over several parts of the country, except parts of the southeastern lowlands, where normal temperatures are expected. Figure 2: January 2024 Rainfall Performance. Figure 3: February Rainfall Forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition remains normal across ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented normal vegetation greenness, thus stable vegetation condition as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties (disaggregated by sub-county) as at the end of January 2024. December 2023 January 2024 Figure 4: Comparison of vegetation condition in December 2023 and January 2024. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio) Turkana:(Turkana East,Central and North) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Narok, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu,Tana River, Turkana, Wajir (109) Embu: (Manyatta Mbeere North Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado: (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado North, Kajiado South, Kajiado West) Kilifi: (Ganze,Kaloleni,Kilifi North,Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai) Kitui: (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kwale: (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia: (Laikipia East, Laikipia North, Laikipia West) Lamu: (Lamu East,Lamu West) Makueni:(Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru: (Buuri,Central Imenti,Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti,Tigania East,Tigania West) Nyeri:(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, NyeriTown, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta: (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tharaka Natha: (ChukaIgambangombe, Maara, Tharaka). West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Narok: (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok East, Narok North, Narok South, Narok West). Mandera:(Lafey, Mandera North, Banissa, Mandera West, Mandera South, Mandera East). Marsabit: (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku). Samburu:(Samburu East, Samburu North, Samburu West) Tana River: (Bura, Galole, Garsen). Turkana:(Turkana South, Loima,T urkana West). Wajir:(Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir South, Wajir West, Eldas, Wajir East) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good to fair over the reference period. Approximately 78 of the ASAL counties reported good condition of pasture and 22 reported fair while 91 good browse condition and 9 reported fair (Table 2) due to the regeneration that was driven by the rainfall received during the previous month. The observed fair condition could be attributed to presence of invasive species such as Cossus Rotundia (Raraiti) that smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species in regions such as Samburu and parts of Marsabit, heat effect in January and heavy flooding in grazing lands. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition Pasture Browse Baringo Tana River Turkana Narok West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Baringo,Garissa, Isiolo,Mandera Marsabit,Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado,Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipa, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all species was generally good across ASAL counties, with 58 reporting good body condition and 22 fair body condition for cattle. 96 reported good condition for goat and sheep while 4 reported fair. The positive trend was due to availability of abundant pasture and access to water within shorter distances. The observed livestock body across January was normal to above normal compared to the long term mean. Table 3: Livestock body condition Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Narok West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipai, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Taita Taveta, Narok, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipai, Lamu, Makueni Meru, West Pokot, Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable compared to the previous month, with most of the arid counties reporting below milk production compared to long term average. This is attributed to low tropical units following livestock mortality experienced during the previous failed seasons. During the period under review, Samburu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.4 litres from the sampled households in Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.6 litres among semi-arid counties. Table 4: Milk production Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Nyeri, Mandera,Turkana Wajir, Narok, Baringo, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia Garissa, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Samburu, Tana River, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Marsabit, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub- Counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso Ward, Samburu County while outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Marsabit and Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF in Wajir. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported in Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained stable across ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The observed low prices were occasioned by the low demand due to increased supply of the species to the markets as farmers sought to raise funds to meet beginning of year academic needs and other household expenses. Notably, the stable-to-improving trend in the other areas was driven by good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists to earn more. Notably, the recorded prices across all counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period, with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity in markets due to hoarding and low volumes, and high demand for cattle meat being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5: Cattle prices Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir Embu,Narok Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi,Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Garissa, Baringo, Marsabit, Nyeri Embu, Narok, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Tana River, Turkana Wajir ,Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Samburu, West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices remained stable across ASAL counties as result of good livestock body condition. Oversupply in markets caused by the need to raise school fees and to meet household needs had negative effect on prices. The favorable trend in these countries was impacted by high export demand and browse availability. The prevalent market price of goats across all counties was above usual rates for the period, which could be attributed to persistent improvement in the body condition of goat following good rains. Table 6: Goat prices Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi ,West Pokot, Kwale,Laikipia Lamu,Makueni, Meru,Narok Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kilifi Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Tana River Mandera Samburu Nyeri Isiolo, Turkana Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production are usually carried out in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel, among others. Table 7 illustrates the crop production situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in good-fair condition. However, farmers are anticipating below average harvests due to withering, crop pests and flash floods. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops under irrigation at various stages of development. Makueni Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were counting crop losses due to water logging. The most affected areas were Kawese village in Kasikeu ward of Kilome Sub-county and KakoWaia Ward in Mbooni Sub-county where maize crop had stunted growth due to sandy soil leaching nutrients, affecting approximately 132 Ha and 272 families. Maize crop is good in most parts of the county and currently at the grain filling stage nearing maturity. Near normal harvest is expected in the last week of February in most areas, except the Rainfed Cropping Zones of Tigania East and parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North, and lower parts of Igembe Central where beans crop was destroyed by flooding. The ongoing harvests of beans are gradually improving household food availability while reducing market reliance, while agricultural labour opportunities are improving household access to income and purchasing power. Agropastoral Baringo Infestation of Fall Armyworms was observed in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub-counties, leading to reduced yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable as harvesting was ongoing and are expected to reduce after harvesting. Notably, the prevailing prices over January were above the respective long-term average for Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Tana River, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Narok ,which could be attributed to minimal production during the earlier successive failed rainfall seasons, high transport costs due to high fuel prices and increased demand for the commodity. Table 8: Maize prices Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot,Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Narok Kwale Narok Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Garissa, Marsabit Mandera, Tana River, Samburu, Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale Kitui,Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kajiado, Meru, Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distance to water source for household remained stable compared to the previous month. Mandera recorded the longest trekking distance for arid counties at 8.6Km and Samburu the shortest at 5.6km return distance. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance at 4.3 Km for semi-arid counties while Nyeri recording the lowest at 1.2 Km among semi-arid counties. Lower than normal trekking distances were boosted by recharge of water facilities over the October to December short rains period, coupled with erratic showers experienced in January, albeit in select areas. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Turkana Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta Kwale, Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Turkana, , Samburu, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to water points remained stable across ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributable to the enhanced short rains. Consequently, among the arid counties, the distance averaged 7.3 Kms compared to 6.7Kms recorded in December 2023. The longest return trekking distance of 10.8 Kms was reported in Turkana and Mandera, while the shortest distance was recorded in Tana River County at 3.2 Kms. On the other hand, the distance ranged between 1.8 Kms and 4.3 Kms in the semi- arid counties, with the longest distance recorded in Kitui while the shortest was reported in Kilifi. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Narok Makueni, West Pokot, Turkana Meru, Laikipia Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado, Taita Taveta Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Turkana, Wajir Mandera, Embu, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade Stability in the terms of trade was noted across the counties. Among the arid counties, the lowest terms of trade of 40 and 42 was reported in Garissa and Turkana respectively, while Nyeri recorded the lowest of 61 among semi-arid counties. Compared to the long-term average, the terms of trade were favorable. Marsabit County reported the highest terms of trade at 91.8 while Tharaka Nithi returned the highest of 115 among the semi-arid counties. The improved terms of trade are as result of ongoing harvests, which are stablising prices. Table 11: Terms of Trade Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo Wajir, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi Lamu, Taita Taveta Garissa, Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kwale Baringo, Marsabit Garissa, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Kitui Laikipia Tana River, Narok, Nyeri, Lamu, Kwale, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend in January compared to the previous month in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Marsabit. This was attributed to ongoing nutrition interventions delivered through health outreaches and better food consumption following improved access to nutritious food commodities in season such as fresh milk, pulses and vegetables. However, based on Middle-Upper-Arm- Circumference (MUAC) rates, Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale and Makueni remained on Alert. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the seasonal ranges in approximately 60 of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 26 of the counties. The negative situation could be attributed to increase in cases of epidemics such as cholera, diarrhea, among other ailments, throughout the short rains season. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based MUAC measurements) Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River, Kitui, Kwale Makueni Baringo Narok Nyeri Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, Mandera Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Marsabit , Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Nyeri, Laikipia Lamu, Meru Taita Taveta Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok Garissa, Samburu Turkana, Tana River, Kwale Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while the trend in a few counties is Worsening Trend as shown in the Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Marsabit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Samburu,Embu,Kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Mer u,Narok,Nyeri,Taita Taveta,Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Recommended Priority Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation given the likely dry conditions in February and March 2024 (before onset of March-May season). Sensitisation of stakeholders on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during upcoming long rains season. Food and safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain income generating activities for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthen disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites. Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthen community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st January 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 3Ist VCI-3 month as at 31st Colour VCI values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 62.35 58.21 Above normal vegetation greeness remained the same across all sub-counties except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. Central 71.16 North 67.05 South 65.01 Ravine 52.93 63.94 Mogotio 47.29 48.02 Tiaty 65.49 57.25 Mandera County 84.47 89.84 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties as compared to the previous month. Lafey 86.16 North 87.08 Banissa 84.19 82.27 85.67 South 90.68 72.11 80.99 Turkana County 54.66 Above normal vegetation greenness recorded in January 2024,Except for Turkana East, North and central that showed Normal vegetation greenness as opposed to previous months. 40.12 35.03 South 54.15 56.18 Loima 77.64 73.21 Central 50.47 45.92 68.43 North 55.57 48.29 Marsabit County 82.75 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Laisamis 84.16 92.78 Moyale 77.37 90.77 North Horr 84.34 73.78 96.65 106.34 Wajir County 62.77 80.25 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across the sub-counties which is similar to the previous months. Tarbaj 76.59 81.37 North 82.63 South 57.03 75.41 46.92 85.04 Eldas 49.72 70.25 Wajir East 68.13 81.61 Samburu County 65.49 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation greenness that is similar to the previous month across the County. 62.92 77.26 North 71.27 76.59 55.83 56.61 Garissa County 61.21 79.78 Significant improvements noted in January with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all the sub-counties as opposed to previous month for Balambala and Township Sub counties reported normal vegetation greenness in Deecember 23. Balambala 49.41 77.94 Township 46.37 81.14 Ijara 74.14 79.75 63.06 83.58 Lagdera 57.01 82.12 Dadaab 55.17 70.57 Isiolo County 67.15 90.96 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties North 65.63 93.74 South 69.47 86.71 Tana River County 58.99 78.53 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Bura Sub county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation deficit reported in November. 51.38 Galole 58.16 76.07 Garsen 65.97 83.49 Kajiado County 81.05 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed across the sub-couties,similar to the previous months. Central 59.72 79.16 59.61 86.31 North 64.33 75.03 South 61.43 88.06 71.51 74.31 County 70.62 80.13 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Manyatta 70.92 74.21 Mbeere North 75.84 Mbeere South 67.23 80.01 Runyenjes 71.14 77.82 Kitui County 57.79 74.09 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties,Similar to the previous month period Central 63.59 74.17 60.48 73.89 Rural 64.73 80.32 South 58.01 76.92 58.54 73.33 Mwingi Central 53.41 Mwingi North 55.17 67.79 Mwingi West 66.23 81.35 Makueni County 62.72 79.77 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant improvement noted across the county.. Kaiti 76.26 81.57 Kibwezi East 53.73 76.51 Kibwezi West 63.69 80.78 Kilome 64.37 83.12 Makueni 67.22 82.07 Mbooni 67.62 78.12 County 67.23 74.02 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Buuri 65.94 73.78 Central-Imenti 65.59 74.08 Igembe Central 70.82 Igembe North 76.87 83.82 Igembe South 66.35 75.76 North Imenti 58.54 South Imenti 63.59 76.08 Tigania East 64.48 66.84 Tigania West 60.44 61.64 Nyeri County 61.83 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties with significant improvement Kieni 63.65 64.12 Mathira 59.27 55.57 Mukurweini 63.33 64.48 Nyeri Town 59.13 66.73 Othaya 67.98 59.95 60.24 56.06 Kilifi County 54.64 74.53 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties,this is the same to the previous month Ganze 53.73 77.09 Kaloleni 61.48 76.92 Kilifi North 57.64 68.46 Kilifi South 52.43 65.42 Magarini 53.84 74.85 Malindi 56.16 70.73 Rabai 58.55 Kwale County 65.67 78.06 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Kinango 62.45 79.37 Lunga 73.94 80.01 Matuga 63.46 71.09 Msambweni 69.99 70.92 County 76.63 80.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lamu East 69.15 79.03 Lamu West 80.96 81.25 Taita Taveta County 51.44 82.11 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across the sub-counties as opposed to previous months Mwatate 79.74 Taveta 46.75 84.74 54.14 81.44 Wundanyi 56.89 85.18 Narok County 73.36 77.55 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 91.63 92.93 Kilgoris 76.55 Narok East 62.44 79.25 Narok North 58.95 64.01 Narok South 77.09 Narok West 82.96 83.63 West Pokot County 64.29 55.38 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kacheliba 59.81 50.37 Kapenguria 67.14 55.97 Pokot South 68.85 64.03 Sigor 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 58.25 69.53 vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties; with improvement being noted in across the county. Chuka 71.78 80.42 Maara 62.45 76.53 Tharaka 51.81 Laikipia County 62.22 74.16 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia East 71.98 79.06 Laikipia North 63.25 78.21 Laikipia West 55.57 64.21 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "Feb_2024.pdf": "1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties are categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the 2023 short rains season. The current Rift Valley Fever reported in the counties of Marsabit and Wajir counties eminent affected neighbouring counties. The just concluded Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, February Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance stands at 2 million, Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of February 2024 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 February 2024 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the February 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive considerable amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 11mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm whereas Pastoral cluster including Figure Rainfall Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received rainfall ranging between 2mm to 50mm as shown in figure 1.1.2 March 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of March 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Marsabit) counties forecasted to receive above average rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of February showed slight decline from the previous month of January which is normal during this period. Turkana and West Pokot Counties are depicting slight greenness deterioration thus requiring monitoring. January 2024 Figure 3. March 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) for January and February 2024 The month of February 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of January 2024. However, two counties showed declining trend. Stability is due to the compounded impacts of OND short rains seasons which was linked to El Nino condition. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties of; Turkana and West Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (21) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2024 is provided in Table 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2024 Category Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, Central, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Sigor) Above Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Taveta, River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, (106) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, West), (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from fair to good during the reference period. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 of ASAL counties, while 22 deemed the pasture condition fair. For browse, 91 of counties reported good conditions, with 9 reporting fair conditions, the stability is attributed to regeneration impacted by the recent rainfall. Fair conditions were observed in regions like Samburu and parts of Marsabit, mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration, heat effects in February, and compromised grazing lands from heavy flooding. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, February 2024 Pasture Browse Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the 23 ASAL Counties was generally stable, with 58 reporting good condition and 22 fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed 96 in good condition and 4 in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water resource within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the ASALCounties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources, with February conditions falling within the usual or above-normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, February 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Kwale Meru, Narok, Tana River, Wajir Turkana, Taita Taveta Narok, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, WestPokot, Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained consistent compared to the previous month, but many Arid counties reported below-average production due to low Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs), stemming from livestock mortality during previous failed seasons. Among the sampled households, Samburu had the lowest average milk production of 0.4 liters among Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production of 0.6 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2024 Isiolo, Nyeri Wajir, Narok, Kajiado, Lamu Kwale, Taita Kilifi, Kitui, Embu, Kwale 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases were reported in Marsabit and Wajir, with 52 positive samples out of 275 tested in Wajir. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County and goats abortion noted across the county. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained steady throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The decrease in price in these areas was due to high volumes, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sold cattle to raise fees for their learners in the schools new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and below normal volumes, and increased demand for cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2024 Tana River, taveta Marsabit, Nyeri Wajir Taita Samburu, West 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons, increasing the availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, February 2024 Kilifi, West Baringo, Garissa, Embu, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production The main food crops in the field were at harvesting stage and their condition varied from good to fair. The performance of crops was affected by logging due to excessive water in some areas. Crop pests manifestation also affected the performance of crops in the field; thus, no optimal production was expected Most of these crops were on harvesting stage and in good to fair condition. The expected crop production was 30-60 percent above the long-term average. High incidences of crop pests and fungal diseases (caterpillars, bollworms, and Tuta absoluta) contributed to the reduced crop production especially for irrigated cropping Harvesting of short-cycle legumes such as beans has been completed across the livelihood zones. Most farmers in the county began harvesting maize across all the livelihood zones. Near average to below average harvest of maize is expected. In the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central below normal maize crop harvest was observed. This is as a results of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in these areas. However, near average-to- average maize crop harvest was observed in the Mixed Livelihood Zone of Tigania East. The harvest is expected to improve food availability at the household level periodically with most households opting to sell the harvest to meet other expenses or use as payment for school fees. Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begun in some areas. Agropastoral Farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the long rains season. In the Irrigated livelihood zones, farmers were harvesting maize and tomatoes. Some maize farms were affected by fall army warms in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties, leading to reduced crop yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, the prices are expected to decrease post-harvest. January prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Ongoing harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further. Januarys prices surpassed long-term averages due to increased fuel prices impacting transportation costs, and heightened demand for the commodity. Table 8.0: Maize prices, February 2024 Atclose to LTA Embu, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia Tana- River Nithi Kilifi, Kitui, Taita Taveta West. Pokot, Kajiado Meru, Laikipia 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.3km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among Arid counties. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance (5.9km), while Nyeri reported the shortest (1.2km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and sporadic January showers in specific areas. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, February 2024 Above LTA At LTA , Mandera, Wajir , Mandera, Turkana , Samburu, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot, Embu, 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, the average distance increased to 7.3 kilometers from January 2023s 6.7 kilometers, with Turkana and Mandera reporting the longest round-trip distances of over 10 kilometers each, and Tana River County having the shortest at 4.5 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 4.9 kilometers, with Kitui reporting the longest and Kilifi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rains in 2023. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, February 2024 w LTA Garissa, Samburu Tana River, Embu Lamu, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Kajiado, Taita Isiolo, Samburu Kilifi, Lamu Kitui, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade remained stable across the ASAL counties, with Garissa and Turkana reporting the lowest among Arid counties at 40 and 42, respectively. In semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest at 61. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade at 98.4, while Tharaka Nithi recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties at 142. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the ongoing harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, February 2024 Below LTA Improving Kilifi, Makueni Lamu, Taita Taveta Kilifi, Nyeri Narok, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition conditions improved in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, and Marsabit compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale, and Makueni counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Despite this, reported malnutrition rates remained below seasonal ranges in about 60 percent of ASAL counties, but approximately 26 percent experienced rates outside the usual ranges. This less favorable situation could be attributed to an increase in epidemic diseases, including cholera and diarrhea, during the OND 2023 period. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2024 Current Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Mandera Kilifi, Laikipia Kitui, Nyeri Lamu, Meru 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while few counties are at Worsening Trend as shown in the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, January 2024 Drought Worsening Deteriorating River, Wajir, Samburu, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in March 2024, before onset of MAM 2024 season. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance control facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Facilitate safe migrations in accessing grazing areas and markets Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistributions. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th February 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County at 31st at 25th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category above normal 35 - 50 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO 58.21 57.62 71.16 81.21 59.13 55.81 Ravine 63.94 78.59 Mogotio 48.02 48.13 Tiaty 57.25 52.31 MANDERA 89.84 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of January with above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 97.39 95.68 Banissa 84.19 80.56 85.67 82.29 96.19 80.99 87.71 TURKANA 54.66 49.86 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 35.03 35.79 56.18 51.48 Loima 73.21 66.32 45.92 47.92 68.43 60.06 48.29 41.96 MARSABIT 82.75 73.86 Laisamis 92.78 86.52 Moyale 90.77 North Horr 62.47 106.34 107.01 WAJIR 80.25 86.25 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in February, as compared to the previous month of January. This remained stable. Tarbaj 81.37 95.48 75.41 77.22 85.04 102.32 Eldas 70.25 83.21 81.61 88.99 SAMBURU 77.26 78.28 76.59 74.66 56.61 55.68 GARISSA 79.78 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness Balambala 77.94 83.15 Township 81.14 87.65 Ijara 79.75 84.49 83.58 82.25 Lagdera 82.12 89.91 Dadaab 70.57 70.04 ISIOLO 90.96 94.78 The county recorded stability in above vegetation compared to last month. 93.74 99.42 86.71 RIVER 78.53 75.22 Galole 76.07 67.42 Garsen 83.49 79.55 KAJIADO 81.05 90.66 stability greenness at above normal vegetation greenness. 79.16 90.95 86.31 93.38 75.03 84.22 88.06 93.65 74.31 LAIKIPIA 74.16 74.32 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness under review. 79.06 79.28 78.21 76.61 64.21 67.63 THARAKA NITHI 69.53 70.05 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 80.42 80.11 Maara 76.53 81.17 62.71 POKOT 55.38 48.21 The county recorded decrease in vegetation greenness from, above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of February. Kacheliba 50.37 41.34 Kapenguria 55.97 Pokot south 64.03 66.18 Sigor 49.58 80.13 77.49 Manyatta 77.15 Mbeere north 76.74 Mbeere south Runyenjes 77.82 KITUI 74.09 71.98 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness Kitui central 74.17 78.92 Kitui east 73.89 71.69 Kitui rural 80.32 Kitui south 76.14 Kitui west 73.33 74.99 central 65.81 Mwingi north 67.79 62.59 Mwingi west 81.35 78.26 MAKUENI 79.77 86.02 Kaiti 81.57 90.79 Kibwezi east 76.51 88.05 Kibwezi west 80.78 Kilome 83.12 92.75 82.07 82.82 Mbooni 78.12 87.47 74.02 78.98 greenness across the sub-counties. Buuri Central Imenti 74.08 76.15 Igembe central 80.93 Igembe north 86.89 Igembe south 75.76 North Imenti South Imenti 76.08 Tigania east 66.84 71.53 Tigania west 61.64 71.32 NYERI 61.83 74.92 Kieni 64.12 75.28 Mathira 55.57 63.89 Mukurweini 64.48 Nyeri town 66.73 84.04 Othaya 59.95 76.64 56.06 75.87 KILIFI 74.53 76.76 The county remained at above normal vegetation Ganze 76.97 Kaloleni 79.95 Kilifi north 68.46 73.64 Kilifi south 65.42 69.43 Magarini 74.85 77.53 Malindi 70.73 71.29 Rabai 78.57 KWALE 78.06 85.42 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in February which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 79.37 85.72 Lunga Lunga 86.49 Matuga 71.09 Msambweni 70.92 80.81 80.44 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in condition greenness condition during the month of February. Lamu east 79.03 91.21 Lamu west 81.25 90.37 TAITA TAVETA 82.11 92.25 greenness during the month of February. Mwatate 79.74 95.33 104.3 81.44 85.41 Wundanyi 85.18 102.65 NAROK 77.55 greenness in the month of February which was stable when compared to the last month of January. Emurua Dikirr 92.93 94.47 Kilgoris 76.55 81.28 Narok east 79.25 89.75 Narok north 64.01 71.41 Narok south Narok west 83.63 88.37 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Livestock production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Food consumption score Nutrition Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "March_2024.pdf": "March 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the 23 ASAL counties continues to register stable drought situation where Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges is registered across the counties.The onset of the long rains 2024 season has been predicted to be characterised by enhanced rains, in some areas with associated flood risks. Floods and other enhanced rains risks is likely to continue undermining drought recovery household level.Generally, the drought situation is expected to continue in normal phase across the 23 ASAL counties as the wet season sets in. According to last food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of March 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 March 2024 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that early onset of MAM 2024 long rains in some counties especially southern counties. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 0mm to 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded trace amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 78mm to 200mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received highest amounts of rainfall with some parts recording rainfall up to 288mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. March 2024 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 April 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of April 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are all forecasted to receive above average rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2024 with that of the previous month of February 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement from the month of February. February 2024 March 2024 Figure 3. April 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps depicting improvement in Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) in March from February 2024 The month of March 2024 indicated improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of February 2024. Improvement in vegetation condition is due to the early onset of MAM 2024 long season. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. OnlyWest Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-two (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2024 is better when compared to the previous month, February 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2024 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness West Pokot Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, (107) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from good to fair during the month of March. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 percent of the Asal counties, while 22 percent were fair. For browse, 78 percent of counties reported good conditions, with 22 percent reporting fair conditions, attributed to regeneration from early onset of MAM seasonal rainfall. Fair Pasture conditions were observed in counties including; Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Narok and Tana River mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration and flooding that hindered grazing. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, March 2024 Pasture Browse Turkana West Pokot Narok Tana River Wajir Narok Garissa Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana West Pokot Tana River Narok Makueni Samburu Garissa Wajir Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Pokot Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the Asal Counties was generally stable, with about 70 percent reporting good condition and about 30 percent fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed about 78 percent in good condition and about 22 percent in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water sources within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the Asal Counties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources, with February conditions falling within the usual or above- normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, March 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera, Makueni Narok, Samburu West Pokot, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Kwale, Embu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera, Makueni Narok, Samburu West Pokot, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Kwale, Embu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production improved compared to the previous month of February. Majority of Arid counties reported above-average production due to improving Tropical Livestock Units (TLU occasion by early onset of MAM long rains season. Among the sampled households, Samburu County recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among Arid counties, while Tharaka Nithi county reported the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. The low milk production is as result of low tropical units among the households as result of previous drought events that led to livestock mortality. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Wajir Narok Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Laikipia Samburu Garissa Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Tharakan Nithi Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Garissa Samburu Turkana Narok Laikipia Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Marsabit Baringo Mandera West Pokot Tana River 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kedong), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. The reported Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases in Marsabit and Wajir, counties continue to be controlled by stakeholders. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices improved slightly throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The increase in price in these areas was due to increased demand, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sought funds for the new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and low volumes, and increased demand for cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Wajir Narok Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Nyeri Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta Pokot Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Samburu Wajir Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Mandera Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons, increasing the availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Garissa Wajir Narok Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Mandera Isiolo Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Wajir Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Tana River 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui The major crops being planted in the season included millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone and maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams in Mixed Farming livelihood zone Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones and this situation is normal at this time of the year Crops germination was expected following the onset of the long rains. However, farmers who did early planting off season planting the crops have germinated Makueni The main crops planted during the season were maize, green grams, pigeon peas, beans, and cowpeas. Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begun in most parts of the livelihood with above-average rains expected across the county Farmers across the livelihood zones concluded harvesting of corps in late February to early March with the harvest being near normal in most parts of the Mixed Framing and Marginal Farming areas of Tigania East and West However, below average maize crop was observed in the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central. This was as a result of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in those areas Agropastoral Baringo Most of the farmers have prepared their farms in readiness for planting once the long rains start, In the Irrigated zone, tomato harvesting was going on well. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, expected to decrease following the post- harvest. March prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to minimal production from past failed rainfall seasons, elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Concluded harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further as witnessed by below average prices in march associated with harvest that farmers got. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Garissa Wajir Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Kitui Makueni Garissa Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Mandera Kajiado Narok Nyeri Wajir Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Kwale Baringo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Baringo West Pokot Samburu Tana River 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.8km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among the Arid counties. Kitui recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Narok reported the shortest (1.7km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and early onset of MAM 2024 long rains. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Samburu Kajiado River Garissa Kwale Tharaka Nithi Pokot Narok Taita Tavet Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Turkana Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Turkana reported the longest round-trip distance at 11.6kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 3.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 5.6 kilometers, with Kitui and Lamu reporting the longest and Kilifi and Narok the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rains in 2023. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Laikipia Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Pokot Kwale Tharaka Nithi Baringo Wajir Turkana Mandera Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tana River Kajiado Kitui Tharaka Nithi Narok Kilifi Taita Taveta Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Turkana Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Baringo Garissa Mandera Tana River Makueni Garissa Nyeri Wajir 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Garissa reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in In semi-arid regions, West Pokot recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade in Arid Counties while Meru recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties . The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Makueni, Laikipia Garissa, Wajir Narok, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Taita Taveta, Turkana Mandera, Meru, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Embu, Nyeri Kitui, Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale River Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir Baringo Tana River West Pokot 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo and Garissa compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Turkana Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Makueni Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Garissa Wajir Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Kilifi Kwale Makueni West Pokot Baringo Garissa Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir 1.8. Emerging issues Heavy rains have been experienced across ASAL counties during the month of April that led to destruction of local roads in Marsabit(Dirib-Gombo, Central (KCB)Badassa, Parkishon).Turkana has also received heavy rains that resulted to displacement of approximately 250 households with Tana river also experiencing river flooding.Other counties like Samburu have received rains that are causing swollen rivers affecting movement of goods.NDMA will closely monitor instances of flooding since rainfall onset has been realised across ASAL counties. 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while few counties are at Worsening Trend as shown in the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Turkana Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Samburu Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the performance of the long rains and management of the possible impacts. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups particularly in flood prone areas. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistributions. Promote fodder production alongside crop production during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st March 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 57.62 52.17 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March. Central 81.21 76.35 North 59.13 57.05 South 55.81 45.15 Ravine 78.59 Mogotio 48.13 41.61 Tiaty 52.31 46.57 MANDERA County 87.45 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of February at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 97.39 North 95.68 85.68 Banissa 80.56 65.85 82.29 81.42 South 96.19 107.51 87.71 TURKANA County 49.86 57.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 35.79 37.39 South 51.48 51.16 Loima 66.32 70.39 Central 47.92 60.06 70.85 North 41.96 54.73 MARSABIT County 73.86 73.77 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March which was stable when compared to previous month of February. Laisamis 86.52 89.18 Moyale 77.46 North Horr 62.47 62.34 107.01 106.88 WAJIR County 86.25 86.77 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in March, as compared to the previous month of February. Tarbaj 90.03 North 95.48 96.31 South 77.22 102.32 98.17 Eldas 83.21 89.42 88.99 89.64 SAMBURU County 74.55 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 78.28 76.88 North 74.66 78.08 55.68 52.52 GARISSA County 81.91 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Balambala 83.15 76.42 Township 87.65 81.69 Ijara 84.49 91.79 82.25 78.76 Lagdera 89.91 84.58 Dadaab 70.04 65.29 ISIOLO County 94.78 92.63 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in March, which was stable when compared to last month. North 99.42 South 83.05 RIVER County 68.79 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. 75.22 71.87 Galole 67.42 59.43 Garsen 79.55 72.03 KAJIADO County 90.66 88.12 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Central 90.95 89.13 93.38 87.46 North 84.22 South 93.65 82.43 87.05 92.48 LAIKIPIA County 74.32 61.36 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 79.28 69.29 North 76.61 64.21 67.63 THARAKA NITHI County 70.05 67.27 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 80.11 81.19 Maara 81.17 83.13 Tharaka 62.71 56.95 POKOT County 48.21 48.86 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Kacheliba 41.34 39.98 Kapenguria 50.15 Pokot south 66.18 72.95 Sigor 49.58 County 77.49 76.54 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 77.15 84.41 Mbeere north 76.74 74.43 Mbeere south 72.07 Runyenjes 81.86 89.26 KITUI County 71.98 64.36 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Kitui central 78.92 81.69 Kitui east 71.69 61.61 Kitui rural Kitui south 76.14 67.05 Kitui west 74.99 73.54 Mwingi central 65.81 56.62 Mwingi north 62.59 57.42 Mwingi west 78.26 76.54 MAKUENI County 86.02 85.85 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March, which was stable when compared to previous month of February. Kaiti 90.79 93.96 Kibwezi east 88.05 88.49 Kibwezi west 81.91 79.99 Kilome 92.75 90.26 Makueni 82.82 83.15 Mbooni 87.47 89.33 County 78.98 82.12 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of March. Buuri 81.86 Central Imenti 76.15 79.26 Igembe central 80.93 79.63 Igembe north 86.89 90.98 Igembe south 74.21 70.63 North Imenti 78.45 South Imenti 84.74 88.87 Tigania east 71.53 74.48 Tigania west 71.32 83.75 NYERI County 74.92 81.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March. Kieni 75.28 78.74 Mathira 63.89 Mukurweini 84.75 89.47 Nyeri town 84.04 Othaya 76.64 75.87 86.95 KILIFI County 76.76 70.53 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Ganze 76.97 66.22 Kaloleni 79.95 68.79 Kilifi north 73.64 71.22 Kilifi south 69.43 60.73 Magarini 77.53 72.75 Malindi 71.29 72.15 Rabai 78.57 76.41 KWALE County 85.42 83.72 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in March which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 85.72 Lunga 86.49 85.51 Matuga 83.82 84.35 Msambweni 80.81 78.37 County 90.68 101.23 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of March. Lamu east 91.21 107.48 Lamu west 90.37 97.61 TAITA TAVETA County 92.25 85.87 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation Mwatate 95.33 90.62 Taveta 104.3 greenness during the month of March. 85.41 77.57 Wundanyi 102.65 102.79 NAROK County 84.75 87.95 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March which was stable when compared to the last month of February. Emurua Dikirr 94.47 95.74 Kilgoris 81.28 Narok east 89.75 88.33 Narok north 71.41 75.04 Narok south 87.05 92.41 Narok west 88.37 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization (Mid-Upper Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping Strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2024.pdf": "APRIL 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The onset of the Long Rains was timely across all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties all through the third week of March to the first week of April. Subsequently, enhanced rainfall received throughout the month of April leading to extreme weather events in most ASALs counties. Enhanced rains were thus characterized by extreme wet conditions and floods in low laying zones in particular counties like Garissa, River, Kitui, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Makueni, Kajiado. The floods had varied level of damage in these counties. The positive impacts included good water recharge, vegetation regeneration and good crop performance. Negative impacts included human and livestock deaths including destruction of homes, schools and infrastructure that disrupted markets function. Optimal livestock productivity as evidenced by the good body condition and increasing milk production levels driven by shorter trekking distances to water sources and grazing areas was noted in all the counties. Consequently, based on these range of indicators that fell within their usual seasonal ranges, all the counties were categorized under the Normal drought phase. Despite the aforementioned impacts that continued to undermine the food security situation, response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders to a greater extent sufficed in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather variability. Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification in April 2024 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 April 2024 Rainfall Performance Ordinarily the month of April marks the peak of the Long Rains season across all the ASAL counties except those within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (CMA) whose rainfall peaks in May. Analysis of the rainfall performance throughout the reference period indicated that majority of the counties received near to above average rainfall (Figure 2). The Rains were characterized by moderate to severe storms in counties. Generally, weather conditions were prevalent in most places with a few areas in Taita Taveta like Voi experiencing sunny conditions. Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Baringo recorded rainfall that was 151-200 percent of the long-term mean (LTM) for April while rainfall experienced in Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Nyeri accounted for 201-300 percent of the rainfall normally received over the subject month. Extremely high amounts exceeding 300 percent of the April LTM were recorded in Turkana (Turkana Central, parts of Turkana South, North and Loima). Garissa, Lamu, Tana River and some parts of Marsabit received rainfall that represented 126-150 percent of the LTM with Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta recording rainfall that was 76-125 percent of the LTM. Figure 2: April 2024 Rainfall Performance Source: Kenya Meteorological Department 1.1.2 May 2024 Rainfall Outlook The outlook for May indicates that majority of the ASAL counties are likely to experience near average to above average rainfall (Figure 3). Equally, periodic storms are also likely to be experienced in some counties before the forecasted cessation over the third dekad of May. Above average rainfall is anticipated throughout the month in Baringo, West Pokot, Narok and the Western parts of Laikipia with the one forecasted for Turkana and Samburu being occasional. Intense rainfall is expected across the first dekad with progression throughout the month in Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern parts of Laikipia. Rainfall in these areas is forecasted to be above average with intermittent storms likely. With respect to the Pastoral North East cluster; near to average rainfall is expected over the reference period. The aforementioned scenario will be most likely for Marsabit county. Near to above average rainfall punctuated with sporadic storms is anticipated in counties within the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Makueni and Kitui) and the same will most likely be replicated in Tana River, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Total amounts of rainfall expected in counties falling within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu) are likely to be near to above average with May signifying the peak of the Long Rains season for these areas. Figure 3: May 2024 Rainfall Forecast Source: Kenya Meteorological Department 1.2 Vegetation condition Favorable vegetation condition was observed across all the ASAL counties over the subject month under review with significant improvement being noted since the previous review as soundly affirmed by the VCI-3month (Figure 4). Throughout the month of April, vegetation greenness remained above the normal vegetation greenness threshold as measured by the VCI-3month depicting the prevalent very good conditions. The observed vegetation condition could purely be attributed to the previous good Short Rains season coupled with the enhanced rainfall received since the timely onset of the Long Rains across majority of the counties resulting to massive vegetation regeneration. Consequently, dense canopies were thus evident over most areas whose robust health was further aided by below average land surface temperatures. Notably, all counties and their respective sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness over the period under review. Figure 4: Maps Illustrating Vegetation Condition Improvement from March to April 2024 Vegetation Condition Index March 2024 Vegetation Condition Index April 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Turkana (Turkana East), West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia (107) Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Balambala, Township, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kapenguria, Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good across the counties during the period under review. (Table 2). The above average rainfall received in April following the attainment of the onset over the third dekad of March to first dekad of April coupled with below average land surface temperature promoted massive regeneration of forage. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, April 2024 Pasture Browse Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Makueni, Marsabit Narok, Samburu Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta, Embu Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia, Wajir Lamu, Makueni Marsabit, Samburu, Narok, Baringo Garissa, Mandera Taita Taveta, Meru Tana River, Embu Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Turkana West Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Significant improvement in the body condition for all livestock species was observed in all the counties ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with considerably reduced trekking distance to water sources. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of April was normal to above normal compared to this time of the year. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, April 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni Meru, Samburu Narok, Baringo Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta Kwale, Marsabit Embu, Garissa Laikipia, Nyeri, Isiolo Turkana Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Makueni, Meru, Narok Samburu, West Pokot Baringo, Mandera Taita Taveta, Wajir Tana River, Kwale Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Marsabit, Embu, Nyeri, Garissa, Laikipia 1.3.3 Milk production Increase in milk production was reported in 57 percent of the counties with the remaining 43 percent reporting a stable trend. The increase is attributable to high rates of kidding and lamping in small stock and calving in cattle plus improved livestock body condition due to stable forage regime and low morbidity rates. (Table 4). The production level over the reference period was above the usual seasonal range in approximately 61 percent of the counties and at par with the normal level in about 39 percent of the counties. Samburu and Embu recorded the lowest production of 0.5 and 0.8 litres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, mortalities witnessed over the previous seasons as a result of drought and floods still had a bearing in the production levels witnessed over the current season. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worse Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Kajiado, Kwale Kilifi, Kitui, Nyeri, Narok Laikipia Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Garissa Embu, Meru, Lamu, Samburu West- Pokot, Tana River Marsabit Samburu Taita- Taveta Isiolo, Kajiado Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Wajir Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Laikipia, Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Samburu Kilifi, Embu Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni Taita- Taveta 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) was reported in Huhoini (Igwamiti ward, Laikipia West sub county), Siana and Nkareta wards in Narok West and Narok North sub counties and Lelan in Pokot South sub county in West Pokot county. Equally, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was reported in Riachu, Mwiyogo and Malee in Tigithi ward,of Laikipia East sub county. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions were reported in Maalimin and Dujis locations within Lagdera sub county of Garissa county and some parts of Mandera while reports of cattle deaths continue emerging from Nanighi in Garissa county and the cause is yet to be established.. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) continue to be controlled inin Marsabit county with cases of tsetse flies among the large stock being noted in the plains of North Horr. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Improving to a stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in estimated 82 percent of the ASAL counties across April (Table 5). However, decline in price was recorded in Turkana, Samburu, Narok and Tharaka Nithi attributable to market surplus as a result of the livestock being within the homesteads and therefore readily disposed coupled with destruction of access roads by floods thus limiting market access for competitive prices. On the other hand, the positive trend reported in majority of the areas was due to the improved cattle body condition. The prevailing cattle market price was above the usual seasonal price in all counties except in Taita Taveta whose reported price was at par with the long-term average. Above average cattle price was as a consequence of the continuous improvement in the body condition of the species driven by better rangeland conditions since the previous short rains season. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Meru Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kitui, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Nyeri, West Pokot Taita- Taveta Marsabit Kilifi, Kitui Kwale Lamu, Meru Makueni Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Nyeri Mandera Tana River Wajir, Embu Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Narok Tharaka- Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to over supply to markets driven by increased food needs at the household level over the April holiday and damage of road and market infrastructure,however the trend remained stable and improving across the ASAL counties(Table 6). Price positivity in the aforementioned counties was driven by improved goat body condition, low market volumes and high demand for utilization during the festive period. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the normal prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition. Based on the current demand-supply dynamics and the hoarding practices by pastoralists as a result of the good rangeland conditions; the price is projected to remain above the seasonal ranges for at least two months. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Lamu Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Wajir, Nyeri Samburu, Embu, Kwale Tana River, Meru, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Makueni West Pokot Garissa Mandera Tana River Wajir Kajiado Kitui, Lamu Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Laikipia, Narok Makueni Meru, Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production River The enhanced rainfall had resulted to flooding in the county with significant proportion of the cropland remaining submerged in water hence reducing the area under crop production. Irrigated crops in the major irrigation schemes were at various vegetative growth stages. Kitui Main crops (millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize) planted earlier in the season were at weeding stage and generally in good condition. Makueni Crops were at germination to knee high stage and in good condition. However, crops in parts of Kibwezi East and Kibwezi West sub counties were experiencing moisture stress following poor distribution of rains in the area. Infestation of invasive weeds was also hindering farming activities especially in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone. Leaching in the low-lying areas had led to stunting of maize and yellowing of beans.. Poor crop performance was being experienced in parts of Tigania with the beans and maize being at the vegetative stage. Agro- pastoral Baringo Flooding of farms was reported in Sandai, Barwessa, Kabutiei and Kapluk locations. Acreage under crop production was anticipated to reduce further due to the expected further flooding. Laikipia Maize was at germination stage to knee high, beans at germination stage to four leaf stage and potatoes at germination stage to tuber initiation stage. High cost of farm inputs at the stockist and high cost of casual labour were major constraints to optimal production. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at knee high stage with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. The ongoing flooding had led to extreme loses especially along the irrigation schemes. About 60-80 percent of the crop is submerged with roughly 20-50 percent being washed away in these areas. 1.4.1 Maize prices Generally, the price of maize was stable and on reducing trend as result of good harvest from the previous short rains season.. Factors promoting price decline ranged from injection of more supplies to local markets by traders that were sourcing from markets adjacent to the respective counties, bumper harvests following a good short rains season, decline in fuel pump prices hence reduced transportation costs to appreciation of the Kenyan Shilling however destruction of roads by floods had some slight impact on markets due to limited access. . Table 8.0: Maize prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana- River, Turkana Wajir Kilifi Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Narok Baringo, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Samburu Tana River Kajiado Nyeri West Pokot Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia Mandera, Makueni Marsabit, Wajir Turkana, Meru, Lamu, Kwale Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Narok Tharaka- Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources remained stable and on improving trend across the counties . The decline in trekking distance could be attributed to improved water availability in facilities adjacent to households following the significant recharge that took place. Currently, the distance averages 4.7 kilometres compared to 5.5 kilometres previously among the Arid counties. Mandera county reported the longest distance of 8.2 kilometres while Isiolo recorded the shortest distance of 1.7 kilometres. In relation to the semi-arid counties, the distance currently averages 2.7 kilometres compared to 3.8 kilometres across March. The longest distance of 5.6 kilometres among the semi-arid counties was recorded in Lamu while the shortest of 1.1 kilometres was reported in Kilifi. The prevailing trekking distance in 70 percent of the counties was below the usual seasonal range and at par with the long-term average in four counties as illustrated in table 9. On the other hand, lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by sustained recharge of water facilities from the previous short rains season into the current long rains season. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Tana- River, Kitui Makueni Wajir Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu, Narok Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Kitui Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Narok Tana River, Nyeri Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru Makueni, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Embu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kwale 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced long rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 9.2 kilometers whereas Tana River County having the shortest at 2.0 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.0 kilometers to 6.5 kilometers, with Lamu reporting the longest and Tharaka Nithi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Kwale Makueni Nyeri Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Embu Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Taita Taveta Laikipia, Meru Narok Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi River Kilifi Makueni Narok West- Pokot Mandera 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. Improved terms of trade is as result of stablising livestock prices against the reducing maize prices as result of good harvest from the previous season.. T Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Meru Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, West Pokot Makueni, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta Baringo, Lamu Garissa Mandera Tana River Wajir, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Meru Marsabit Samburu Kwale Laikipia Turkana Kilifi, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Improvement in the nutrition situation was noted across the ASAL counties (Table 12). Among the notable drivers cited for the observed positive trend included: improved access to milk for consumption and stabilized food security situation at the household level and improved hygiene and sanitation practices. Nutrition situation deteriorated in West Pokot and Mandera as a consequence of non-food related drivers such as increased morbidity rates for diarrhea, malaria and other water borne diseases and poor childcare practices. Overall, the reported malnutrition rates remained below the normal ranges in approximately 65 percent of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 35 percent of the counties. The positive situation could be attributed to the general improvement in food security across most ASAL counties due to improved crop and livestock productivity. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Kitui Nyeri Taita- Taveta Mandera West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention safety nets Food assistance to households displaced by floods and scaling up shock responsive cash transfers targeting the population categorized under IPC phase 3 as a consequence of losing livelihoods during the historic prolonged drought across the ASAL counties. Coordination Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate floods response activities and implementation of resilience strengthening initiatives through convening regular meetings, monitoring and reporting. Livestock sector Conduct restocking exercise targeting areas that reported high mortality rates and vaccination drives against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever. Improving access to extension services Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. Peace security sector Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Education sector Rehabilitation of infrastructure destroyed by floods while promoting hygiene and sanitation practices in learning institutions. Health nutrition sector Promotion of hygiene and sanitation activities within high risk communities and managing malnutrition through supply of essential nutrition commodities (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food RUTF and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th April, 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at April Colou values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 52.17 50.68 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across three Sub counties while Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo South recorded normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month. Central 76.35 70.16 North 57.05 52.05 South 45.15 43.01 Ravine Mogotio 41.61 40.92 Tiaty 46.57 42.53 Mandera County 87.45 77.13 Lafey 74.69 North 85.68 74.66 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Banissa 65.85 52.15 81.42 79.13 South 107.51 99.17 Turkana County 57.27 68.48 All the Sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness except Turkana East whose vegetation condition was within the normal band just like the previous month. 37.39 41.88 South 51.16 Loima 70.39 75.66 Central 62.91 70.85 78.14 North 54.73 67.32 Marsabit County 73.77 72.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Laisamis 89.18 77.27 Moyale 77.46 73.17 North Horr 62.34 61.79 106.88 87.15 Wajir County 86.77 Stability in the condition of vegetation was observed over April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across the respective Sub counties. Tarbaj 90.03 82.69 North 96.31 89.58 South 76.82 98.17 77.64 Eldas 89.42 89.64 80.25 Samburu County 74.55 75.74 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation greenness with a slight shift in the VCI-3month values from those recorded previously across the County. 76.88 76.03 North 78.08 81.07 52.52 51.63 Garissa County 76.09 Stability in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all sub counties. Balambala 76.42 71.39 Township 81.69 74.42 Ijara 91.79 91.85 78.76 75.07 Lagdera 84.58 79.61 Dadaab 65.29 62.69 Isiolo County 92.63 78.12 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. North 85.73 South 83.05 75.18 Tana River County 68.79 70.07 71.87 67.15 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Galole 59.43 65.19 Garsen 72.03 75.16 Kajiado County 88.12 85.87 county reported above normal vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado North. Central 89.13 81.08 87.46 79.90 North 95.47 South 82.43 74.63 92.48 87.71 County 76.54 77.36 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Manyatta 84.41 90.32 Mbeere North 74.43 75.22 Mbeere South 72.07 72.66 Runyenjes 89.26 93.45 Kitui County 64.36 65.82 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Central 81.69 61.61 60.15 Rural South 67.05 68.09 73.54 69.17 Mwingi Central 56.62 55.77 Mwingi North 57.42 53.54 Mwingi West 76.54 71.62 Makueni County 85.85 81.31 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant regeneration was witnessed in Kaiti. Kaiti 93.96 97.18 Kibwezi East 88.49 75.12 Kibwezi West 79.99 76.18 Kilome 90.26 91.53 Makueni 83.15 80.79 Mbooni 89.33 87.47 County 82.12 78.28 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Buuri 86.54 Central-Imenti 79.26 80.68 Igembe Central 79.63 75.57 Igembe North 90.98 85.16 Igembe South 70.63 74.49 North Imenti 78.45 79.18 South Imenti 88.87 Tigania East 74.48 75.42 Tigania West 83.75 80.69 Nyeri County 81.67 88.57 Kieni 78.74 83.61 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Mathira 85.93 Mukurweini 89.47 92.14 Nyeri Town 82.75 Othaya 94.36 86.95 90.26 Kilifi County 70.53 71.39 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Ganze 66.22 72.27 Kaloleni 68.79 65.07 Kilifi North 71.22 70.55 Kilifi South 60.73 58.18 Magarini 72.75 71.22 Malindi 72.15 77.65 Rabai 76.41 76.94 Kwale County 83.72 82.93 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kinango 81.46 Lunga Lunga 85.51 84.68 Matuga 84.35 82.39 Msambweni 78.37 75.84 County 101.23 102.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Lamu East 107.48 109.23 Lamu West 97.61 99.19 Taita Taveta County 85.87 82.51 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Regeneration in Voi was fair due to the low amount of rainfall received. Mwatate 90.62 86.36 Taveta 77.57 78.49 Wundanyi 102.79 97.82 Narok County 87.95 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 95.74 91.88 Kilgoris 79.05 Narok East 88.33 82.56 Narok North 75.04 76.92 Narok South 92.41 96.18 Narok West 86.83 West Pokot County 48.86 51.49 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones of Pokot South and West while Pokot North and Central reported normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month. Kacheliba 39.98 Kapenguria 50.15 53.61 Pokot South 72.95 77.12 Sigor 53.28 Tharaka Nithi County 67.27 63.11 Chuka 81.19 78.36 Maara 83.13 87.22 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Tharaka 56.95 51.98 Laikipia County 61.36 56.33 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia East 69.29 68.14 Laikipia North 64.21 61.76 Laikipia West 42.79 Table 16.0: Indicators Monitored by the Drought Early Warning System Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop condition Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (goatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: Normal, Alert, Alarm, Emergency or Recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5: Drought Cycle for Phase Classification",
            "May_2024.pdf": "May 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet condition are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASAL with exception of the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually receives JJA rains. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of May 2024. Fig 1: Droug ht Phase Classification, May 2024 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 May 2024 Rainfall Performance The May 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received above average rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Wajir county received very low amount of rainfall ranging between 25mm 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded rainfall amounts ranging between 75mm 300mm. Turkana County received low amounts of rainfall up to 25mm 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received amounts of rainfall ranging between 25mm to 76mm. Taita Taveta county received the least amount of rainfall within the coastal cluster as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 June 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of June 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly dry with sunny conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts Figure 2. May 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. June 2024 Rainfall forecast of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2024 with that of the previous month of April 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of May remained the same when compared to that of the month of April. April 2024 May 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of April and May 2024 The month of May 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous March, April and May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. The following one (1) county; Baringo recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in May 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, April 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of May 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot (107) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa county reported fair forage, which is attributable to Tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May Long Rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, May 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 2). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Noteworthy, the observed livestock body condition in May exceeded the one usually witnessed over the month. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, May 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Tana River Garissa Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Wajir Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Mandera, Laikipia Kajiado Tana River Makueni, Narok, Kilifi Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in May was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Samburu recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.7 litres among the Arid counties while Embu reported the lowest average of 0.9 litres among the Semi-Arid Counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Samburu Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Meru Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Embu Wajir, West Pokot Isiolo, Kilifi Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Taita- Taveta Kitui 1.3.4. Livestock diseases During the month under review, suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle was reported in Siana, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok, Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone of Lamu, Igembe North and Tigania West in Meru. Confirmed cases of lumpy skin disease (LSD) was recorded in Matanya, Solio and Nyahururu in Laikipia while an outbreak of the same affecting cattle was reported around Kibish in Turkana County. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions was witnessed in Maalimin and Dujis in Garissa with an upsurge of the same being noted in Marsabit and Mandera where epidemiological investigations were ongoing. Reports of cattle deaths attributed to suspected vector-borne illnesses emerged from Nanighi in Garissa with trypanosomiasis, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis suspected to be contributing to the mortalities witnessed. Additionally, cases of foot rot disease were reported in areas of Kathangachini and Gatunga Wards in Tharaka Nithi. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in approximately 78 percent of the counties over the period under review (Table 5). The positive trend reported in majority of the areas, was as a result of the improved cattle body condition hence a better market return value. Notably, decline in price was recorded in five counties constituting 22 percent of the ASALs including Kitui, Kajiado, Garissa, Embu and Kilifi attributed to high traded volumes following the reopening of schools. The reported price in May was above the LTA in all counties except Taita Taveta where it was at par with the normal price for the period. Notable factors driving the observed situation included enhanced availability of pasture across the Long Rains season that sustained the body condition within desirable levels, market deficits in some regions and high demand for meat within external markets. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Makueni Marsabit, Samburu Turkana, Wajir, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri West Pokot, Laikipia Mandera, Embu, Garissa, Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana, Baringo, Isiolo, Wajir, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Nyeri Mandera Tana River Samburu Makueni West Pokot, Marsabit, Kilifi, Kajiado Kitui, Garissa 1.3.6 Goat Prices Over the subject reference period, about 61 percent of the counties reported an improving trend while the price in Marsabit, Samburu and Makueni remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. Among the factors driving the positive trend included improved goat body condition occasioned by the availability of palatable browse within sites in close proximity to households and water sources hence reduced trekking distance. On the other hand, about 26 percent of the ASAL counties recorded a negative trend purely driven my market surplus as parents sought to facilitate their children back to school through sale of the most liquid asset (Table 6). Notably, the reported price across all counties in May was above the corresponding long-term average as depicted in table 6. The scenario was basically influenced by the sustained improvement in the body condition throughout the March to May rainfall season with the situation projected to remain similar across June. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Meru Tana River, Wajir, Laikipia Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, West Pokot Lamu, Makueni, Garissa Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Embu Tharaka Nithi, Narok Baringo, Nyeri, Tana River, Lamu, Laikipia Turkana, Kilifi Kajiado, Kwale Taita Taveta, Meru, Narok West Pokot Garissa Marsabit Samburu Makueni Isiolo, Embu Wajir, Kitui Tharaka Nithi Mandera 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui Main crops planted were mostly at past knee-high stage with their condition being generally good. Makueni Crops were at knee highflowering stage and in fair to good condition while in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the crops were at poddingtussling stage. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were incurring losses due to water logging. maize was at tussling stage while legumes were at the flowering stage in Mixed Farming Zone while in the Marginal mixed farming zone, maize was at grain filling stage with legumes being at podding stage. Agropastoral Kajiado Crops were at maturity and in fair condition with beans mainly in Loitoktok at podding stage while maize had started tussling. Heavy rains resulted to water logging, soil erosion and nutrient leaching on most farms. Fall Army Worm was reported in about 40 percent of the farms with Tuta absoluta reported in about 35 of the farms. Laikipia Weeding and spraying against pests and diseases was ongoing. Crops had been affected by water logging and excessive moisture leading to the leaching of nutrients and reduction in expected yields mostly for beans and potatoes. Maize was at knee high to reproductive stage, beans at weeding to reproductive stage and potatoes at spraying to earthing up stage. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at grain fillingtasselling stages with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. Coast Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Main farming activity ongoing was maize and cassava crops weeding with few farmers planting while the condition of the crop was poor. 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize declined in majority (57 percent) of the counties with stable trend being recorded in roughly 30 percent of the counties while Embu, Garissa and Kwale recorded a slight increase in the trading price (Table 8). Increased supplies to the market from external markets and via imports and reduced transportation costs were cited as the major drivers of the price decline while increasing reliance on markets within the marginal agriculture areas where household stocks were dwindling compounded by poor road infrastructure that disrupted distribution in some areas were noted as the factors driving the upward shift in maize price. Comparatively, the prevailing price was below the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties and above in roughly 26 percent of the counties with Turkana returning a price that was at par with the LTA. The noted positive scenario was as a consequence of continuous supply of the commodity to markets, availability of substitute cereals and increased cross-border imports leading to a relatively stable market performance. Table 8.0: Maize prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Isiolo, Kwale Wajir, Meru Kilifi, Nyeri Tharaka- Nithi, Narok Garissa Laikipia Mandera Turkana Marsabit Tana River Makueni, Taita- Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Nyeri Marsabit, Garissa Samburu, Laikipia Tana River, Kwale Lamu, Mandera Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Makueni, Taita- Taveta Wajir, Kitui, West Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (7.7km) and Isiolo the shortest (1.8Km) among the Arid counties. Lamu recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Meru reported the shortest (1.4km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water recharge during the March April May rainfall season of 2024. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Lamu, Wajir Kwale, Garissa River Pokot Mandera Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Nyeri Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Nyeri Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Turkana, Makueni, Meru, West Pokot, Nyeri Mandera Lamu, Marsabit Samburu, Narok Tana River, Taita Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Kilifi Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 11 kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 2.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, Kwale reported the longest and Embu the shortest distances at 4.4km and 2.1. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Marsabit, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi Kwale, Laikipia Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Narok West Pokot Kwale Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana, Garissa Wajir, Kajiado, Kilifi, Nyeri Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Mandera, Embu Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Lamu, Makueni Meru, West Pokot, Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana- River, Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Embu, Taita- Taveta Kajiado Narok Tharaka- Nithi. Garissa 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Turkana reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were above normal when measured against the longterm average. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, May 2024 Current Status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Embu, Wajir Isiolo, Kitui, Kilifi, Lamu Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, West Pokot Tana River, Turkana Kajiado, Kwale, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Garissa Baringo, Laikipia Samburu Turkana, Nyeri Kajiado, Narok Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, West Pokot Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Garissa Marsabit Garissa Wajir Mandera Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Kilifi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kitui Tana River Turkana, Lamu Makueni West Pokot Garissa Mandera Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri Samburu, Embu, Narok Kajiado, Kwale Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Kilifi Turkana, Wajir Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Garissa Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Mandera Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Pokot Tana River 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, May 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kilifi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in June- September 2024, before onset of OND2024 season. Stakeholders to sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains; Support for point-of-use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during OND 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote home grown solutions to school feeding programmes . Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th May 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th VCI-3 month as at 26th Colour values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 49.63 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in May. Central 69.63 69.63 North 52.76 52.76 South 44.27 44.27 Ravine 78.53 78.53 Mogotio Tiaty 43.93 43.93 MANDERA County 77.01 77.01 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of April at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 71.93 71.93 North Banissa 56.75 56.75 79.53 79.53 South 98.06 98.06 60.53 60.53 TURKANA County 64.04 64.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 39.19 39.19 South 54.89 54.89 Loima 74.56 74.56 Central 61.75 61.75 81.27 81.27 North 64.31 64.31 MARSABIT County 68.75 68.75 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to previous month of April. Laisamis 79.12 79.12 Moyale 69.35 69.35 North Horr 61.74 61.74 87.21 87.21 WAJIR County The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in May, as compared to the previous month of April. Tarbaj 86.82 86.82 North 89.17 89.17 South 75.01 75.01 77.92 77.92 Eldas 80.05 80.05 84.99 84.99 SAMBURU County 74.94 74.94 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 74.88 North 81.46 81.46 52.33 52.33 GARISSA County 76.47 76.47 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Balambala 69.64 69.64 Township 71.56 71.56 Ijara 90.82 90.82 Lagdera 81.43 81.43 Dadaab 63.43 63.43 ISIOLO County The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in April, which was stable when compared to last month. North 87.27 87.27 South 76.48 76.48 County 68.78 68.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the RIVER 68.01 68.01 month of May. Galole 62.43 62.43 Garsen KAJIADO County 82.39 82.39 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Central 85.88 85.88 82.74 82.74 North 91.86 91.86 South 73.95 73.95 86.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 55.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 68.22 North 58.96 58.96 43.52 43.52 THARAKA NITHI County 64.28 64.28 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 82.85 82.85 Maara 86.65 86.65 Tharaka 50.13 50.13 POKOT County 84.99 84.99 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Kacheliba 52.87 52.87 Kapenguria 44.09 44.09 Pokot south 54.06 54.06 Sigor 77.04 77.04 County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.64 89.64 Mbeere north 74.81 74.81 Mbeere south 70.08 70.08 Runyenjes 92.78 92.78 KITUI County 62.67 62.67 Kitui central 82.99 82.99 Kitui east 60.93 60.93 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Kitui rural 76.75 76.75 Kitui south 66.18 66.18 Kitui west 67.29 67.29 Mwingi central 55.11 55.11 Mwingi north 53.92 53.92 Mwingi west MAKUENI County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May, which was stable when compared to previous month of April. Kaiti 99.92 99.92 Kibwezi east Kibwezi west 75.34 75.34 Kilome 89.68 89.68 Makueni 79.78 79.78 Mbooni 87.69 87.69 County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of May. Buuri 86.26 86.26 Central Imenti 81.26 81.26 Igembe central 76.93 76.93 Igembe north 86.43 86.43 Igembe south 71.26 71.26 North Imenti 80.63 80.63 South Imenti 91.41 91.41 Tigania east 74.47 74.47 Tigania west NYERI County 87.91 87.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in Kieni 85.63 85.63 Mathira Mukurweini 90.91 90.91 Nyeri town 87.36 87.36 Othaya 93.54 93.54 91.63 91.63 KILIFI County 70.36 70.36 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Ganze 69.89 69.89 Kaloleni 67.23 67.23 Kilifi north 69.18 69.18 Kilifi south 51.35 51.35 Magarini 71.36 71.36 Malindi 77.55 77.55 Rabai 75.62 75.62 KWALE County 83.51 83.51 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 83.41 83.41 Lunga Lunga Matuga 84.11 84.11 Msambweni 72.37 72.37 County 102.41 102.41 Lamu east 108.88 108.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of May. Lamu west 98.67 98.67 TAITA TAVETA County 84.46 84.46 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Mwatate 87.17 87.17 Taveta 92.87 92.87 78.91 78.91 Wundanyi 98.74 98.74 NAROK County The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of April which was stable when compared to the last month of April. Emurua Dikirr 86.11 86.11 Kilgoris 80.64 80.64 Narok east 84.97 84.97 Narok north 80.27 80.27 Narok south 93.87 93.87 Narok west 89.64 89.64 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping Strategies SUMMARY OF THE DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification . EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5 . RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1 . NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations . ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3 . ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "June_2024.pdf": "June 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview 23 ASAL counties continued to fall under the Normal drought phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet conditions are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASALs except for the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually receives JJA rains. The planned Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024 in July is expected to provide updated numbers of food insecure population in the ASAL counties. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of June 2023. Figure 1. June 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 June 2024 Rainfall Performance The June 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties remained dry during the month under review. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received less than 25mm of rainfall. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 26mm 75m. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties remained dry, receiving trace amounts of rainfall. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 51- 76mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 July 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of July 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Figure 2. June 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. July 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 Depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2024 from the previous month of May 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in June remained the same from that of the month of May. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of May and June 2024 The month of June 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. All the twenty-three (23) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot, Baringo and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in June 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, May 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). May 2024 June 2024 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (113) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa County reported fair forage, which is attributable to tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a result of enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 3). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Tana River Garissa Wajir Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Mandera, Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu Tana River Makueni, Narok, Kilifi Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in June was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Samburu Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Kitui Samburu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle were reported in Mutara, Suguroi, Kiamariga, Salama, Saba and Table land in Laikipia County, Tigania West in Meru, Siana, Mosiro and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Narok East and Narok North sub counties accordingly, Adamasajida Ward in Wajir West sub county, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango sub county and parts of Samburu. In Mandera and Turkana, cases of abortions affecting small stock were recorded with epidemiological investigations and sampling ongoing over the period under review. Equally in Garissa, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease was reported in Kumahumato, Dadaab sub county and Iftin in Township sub county. Additionally, estimated 2,865 goats in Marsabit presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths were recorded with the case fatality rate (CFR) being 20 percent. About 1,021 Sheep in the same County had clinical symptoms with 184 deaths being reported while the CFR was recorded as eight percent. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels were equally reported in Marsabit with the affected stock being about 1,618 out of which 185 had died. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the price of cattle was noted in majority of the counties during the month under analysis (Table 5). Improved cattle body condition attributed to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distance was cited as the major driver of the observed positive trend. However, a negative trend was noted in 39 percent of the counties ascribed to reduced demand against a stable supply of livestock in markets... Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot River Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Garissa Isiolo, Embu Tana River Turkana Makueni Meru, Narok Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices Across the month of June, approximately 74 percent of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with the remaining 26 percent recording an improving trend (Table 6). The stability in the market price of goat could be attributed to the improved goat body condition occasioned by browse and water availability within household vicinity sites. Noteworthy, all the counties reported prices that were above the respective long-term average for the month with the situation being ascribed to the stable body condition over the period under review. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Narok Tana River, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Nyeri, Embu 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties over the period under review. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South Marginal Kitui Maize was predominantly at maturity stage with the condition being fair in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone and poor in the Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone. Agriculture Makueni Most crops were at grain filling to harvesting stage and in fair to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. Maize harvesting was the major activity taking place with the yield expected to be below average due to destruction of crops through flooding over the Long Rains period and leaching resulting to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Meanwhile, a significant proportion of farmers in Igembe North and Central had opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as a folder for livestock. Agro- pastoral Kajiado The condition of crops was fair except in Kajiado South where it was fair to poor. Waterlogging, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching due to the enhanced rains affected crop production. Majority of the farmers were harvesting beans while maize was at the cobbing to maturity stages. Baringo Maize was at tussling stage in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones while beans were destroyed by the enhanced rainfall received across the March to May period with Tomatoes at harvesting stage. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fair to good condition. Laikipia Harvesting of beans and potatoes was ongoing with the yields being fair due to excessive moisture and water logging. Maize was above knee high to tussling stage with the production projected to be above normal due to the good performance of the Long Rains. Pokot Maize was at grain filling stage while beans and green grams were at harvesting stage. However, water stress posed a significant on attainment of maturity for Maize in some parts of the county. Coast Marginal Agriculture(CMA) Kwale Cereals were at knee-high, tussling and flowering stage while pulses were at podding to maturity stage. Weeding was the major activity while the condition of maize ranged from poor to fair due to poor distribution of rains despite normal onset. Kilifi As a consequence of the poor temporal distribution of the Long Rains, crops were in poor condition with the risk of crop failure affecting about 50 percent cropland being likely. 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize remained stable in majority (56 percent) of the counties with an improving trend being recorded in roughly 26 percent of the counties. (Table 8). Stabilization in maize price over majority of the counties could be attributed to availability of household stocks from the Short Rains harvests and seamless supply of maize from external markets and cross-border trading. Enhanced availability of maize as a result of continuous supply from internal and external sources coupled with availability of other complementary cereals were the main factor driving the observed situation. Table 8.0: Maize prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Marsabit Tana River Wajir Turkana Mandera Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Samburu, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, West Pokot Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Kwale Baringo Samburu Taita- Taveta, Tharaka- Nithi, Embu West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana, Nyeri Wajir, Kajiado Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Tana River Laikipia Makueni Narok 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Unchanged trekking distance to domestic water sources was recorded in 61 percent of the counties with the distance increasing slightly in about 39 percent of the counties over the month under review (Table 9). Mandera and Kitui recorded the longest distances of 7.8 and 5.8 kilometres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Despite the recorded slight increase in some areas, generally the prevailing trekking distance over June was within the usual range in 83 percent of the counties and that could be attributed to the positive impact of two consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Turkana Wajir, Lamu Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Makueni Baringo, Wajir Mandera, Meru Laikipia, Narok West Pokot, Lamu, Narok Lamu, Tana River, Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Samburu, Isiolo Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Kwale, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stability in return trekking distance from grazing areas to water points was noted in about 48 percent of the counties with the remaining reporting a slight increase relative to the previous month (Table 10). Unchanged trekking distance was as a consequence of water availability within the traditional usual grazing areas following the recharge that took place across the Long Rains period with the negative trend being occasioned by declining rangeland resources in some areas, reduced flow along some seasonal rivers and decrease in alternative water sources in specific counties. The longest distance of 13.6 kilometres within the Arid counties was recorded in Garissa while Kitui returned the longest distance of 6.5 kilometres among the Semi-Arid counties. With respect to the prevailing trekking distance during the period under review, only two counties including Kwale and West Pokot reported distance that was above the usual range for the period under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kwale West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Narok Taita- Taveta Garissa Nyeri Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Embu Kilifi, Makueni Baringo West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Tana River. Turkana, Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Stable terms of trade were recorded in about 65 percent of the counties with the remaining 35 percent of the ASAL counties recording a slight decline in relation to the previous month (Table 11). Stable maize prices driven by continuous supply following the recent harvests coupled with unchanged goat price whose body condition remained good were the major factors driving the observed stability. Garissa and Lamu reported the lowest terms of trade of 37.6 and 88 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, household purchasing power as exhibited through the terms of trade remained fairly elevated in all the counties as a consequence of the prevailing conducive economic factors. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot Tana- River, Baringo Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu West Pokot Nyeri Garissa, Isiolo Tana River Embu, Laikipia Makueni Meru, Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable across majority of the ASAL counties during the period under review (Table 12). Notable factors driving the stability included: improved hygiene practices due to water availability, improved ease of access to health and nutrition services through outreaches coupled with improved milk consumption occasioned by the higher rates of calving. On the contrary, the negative trend reported in Narok and Embu was as a result of poor child care practices exacerbated by caregivers who were engaged in income generating activities. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the usual seasonal ranges in about 73 percent of the counties. Improved food security occasioned by better livestock and crop performance was the major factor influencing the below normal malnutrition rates in the ASAL areas across the period under analysis. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui, Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Laikipia Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Laikipia Isiolo, Lamu, Kitui Mandera, Marsabit Kajiado, Baringo Nyeri, Kwale Makueni, Kilifi Taita Taveta, Wajir Garissa, Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Embu, Narok 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, June 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kilifi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th June 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 79.38 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Central 69.63 86.69 North 52.76 80.75 South 44.27 78.39 Ravine 78.53 81.19 Mogotio 71.09 Tiaty 43.93 80.05 MANDERA County 77.01 101.79 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of May at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 71.93 108.09 North 102.29 Banissa 56.75 79.53 110.15 South 98.06 100.13 60.53 102.63 TURKANA County 64.04 90.51 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 39.19 77.37 South 54.89 89.33 Loima 74.56 103.27 Central 61.75 97.02 81.27 92.83 North 64.31 88.33 MARSABIT County 68.75 94.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable when compared to previous month of May. Laisamis 79.12 98.25 Moyale 69.35 91.88 North Horr 61.74 93.55 87.21 93.82 WAJIR County 85.88 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in June, as compared to the previous month of May. Tarbaj 86.82 85.92 North 89.17 117.29 South 75.01 76.06 77.92 60.99 Eldas 80.05 91.83 84.99 97.91 SAMBURU County 74.94 99.56 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 98.13 North 81.46 105.04 52.33 86.23 GARISSA County 76.47 86.12 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Balambala 69.64 101.38 Township 71.56 81.31 Ijara 90.82 81.25 77.71 Lagdera 81.43 95.51 Dadaab 63.43 92.56 ISIOLO County The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in June, which was stable when compared to last month. North 87.27 81.45 South 76.48 TANA RIVER County 68.78 73.33 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. 68.01 Galole 62.43 64.44 Garsen 69.75 KAJIADO County 82.39 88.29 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Central 85.88 88.54 82.74 94.13 North 91.86 84.08 South 73.95 83.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 91.81 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 92.53 North 58.96 96.67 43.52 82.36 THARAKA NITHI County 64.28 78.68 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 82.85 90.32 Maara 86.65 83.99 Tharaka 50.13 72.59 WEST POKOT County 84.99 71.38 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kacheliba 52.87 65.14 Kapenguria 44.09 71.52 Pokot south 54.06 85.77 Sigor 77.04 74.11 County 90.21 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.64 84.86 Mbeere north 74.81 93.67 Mbeere south 70.08 89.62 Runyenjes 92.78 90.66 KITUI County 62.67 85.48 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kitui central 82.99 97.94 Kitui east 60.93 91.86 Kitui rural 76.75 98.36 Kitui south 66.18 76.54 Kitui west 67.29 96.25 Mwingi central 55.11 93.55 Mwingi north 53.92 Mwingi west 101.35 MAKUENI County 90.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June, which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Kaiti 99.92 97.01 Kibwezi east Kibwezi west 75.34 92.13 Kilome 89.68 92.61 Makueni 79.78 102.96 Mbooni 87.69 103.2 County 86.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of June. Buuri 86.26 89.04 Central Imenti 81.26 Igembe central 76.93 89.29 Igembe north 86.43 89.11 Igembe south 71.26 87.55 North Imenti 80.63 77.87 South Imenti 91.41 83.04 Tigania east 74.47 83.51 Tigania west 83.14 NYERI County 87.91 83.42 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Kieni 85.63 84.97 Mathira 85.47 Mukurweini 90.91 Nyeri town 87.36 84.18 Othaya 93.54 76.95 91.63 76.31 KILIFI County 70.36 55.57 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Ganze 69.89 51.79 Kaloleni 67.23 60.43 Kilifi north 69.18 65.96 Kilifi south 51.35 60.94 Magarini 71.36 53.91 Malindi 77.55 65.86 Rabai 75.62 69.42 KWALE County 83.51 64.52 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 83.41 61.36 Lunga Lunga 67.37 Matuga 84.11 72.94 Msambweni 72.37 66.78 County 102.41 92.09 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of June. Lamu east 108.88 92.84 Lamu west 98.67 91.65 TAITA TAVETA County 84.46 75.95 Mwatate 87.17 82.48 Taveta 92.87 84.76 78.91 69.26 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Wundanyi 98.74 88.78 NAROK County 83.59 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June which was stable when compared to the last month of May. Emurua Dikirr 86.11 78.74 Kilgoris 80.64 73.37 Narok east 84.97 81.84 Narok north 80.27 77.26 Narok south 93.87 85.19 Narok west 89.64 91.11",
            "July_2024.pdf": "July 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-two counties were categorized under the Normal phase except Kilifi (Alert) based on the range of environmental, production, access utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and ongoing JJAS light seasonal rains in western parts of Kenya. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase. However, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. The number of people in need of assistance has dropped from 1.5M in February 2024 to 1M in August 2024.The number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 847,932 (Feb 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has also reduced from 123,567 (Feb 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024(KFSSG LRA 2024) 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 July 2024 Rainfall Performance July 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received trace amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 20 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm 121mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 50mm. Agro Pastoral cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm igur 1. July 2024 Drought Phase Figure 2. July 2024 Rainfall Performance 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 60mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 August 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of August 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Parts of counties like Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia Kajiado, Kitui and Narok are forecasted to experience intermittent cold and cloudy conditions with occasional rains. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2024 with that of June 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in July remained the same compared to June. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of June and July 2024 July 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) compared to June 2024. Stability in vegetation was due to the impacts of MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties, coupled with JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties of Samburu, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties; Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in July 2024 indicates stability when compared to June 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. June 2024 July 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana and West Pokot, Baringo (108) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage conditions were predominantly good across all counties (Table 2). However, some areas in Garissa County reported fair forage due to tree locust infestation. Overall, the good forage situation, both in terms of quantity and quality, was attributed to the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is expected to continue through July due to the timely to slightly delayed cessation of rainfall in these regions. However, Kilifi County recorded poor browse condition attributed to poor performance of the 2024 long rains season in some parts of the county. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, July 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of both cattle and goats was generally good to very good, as evidenced by the pictorial evaluation tool. Most counties reported significant improvement in the body condition of all livestock species throughout the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 86 of counties recorded the condition of cattle as good, and 82 reported the same for goats (Table 3). The availability of forage and water resources within shorter trekking distances was cited as a key factor driving this favorable situation. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, July 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Tana River Garissa Mandera Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu, Turkana, Wajir Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in production levels was recorded in 70 of the ASAL counties, while the remaining 30 reported a stable trend (Table 4). The availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding, along with improved livestock body conditions, were cited as factors contributing to this trend. The prevailing yield levels reported in July were above the Long-Term Average (LTA) in about 70 of the counties, and below the LTA in 30 of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Kitui Samburu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Increased cases of abortions affecting goats and sheep were reported in Tiaty East sub county Mandera, Turkana and Samburu counties. Unconfirmed incidences of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were reported in Embu and Lolgorien and Keiyan wards in Narok. Suspected incidences of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Embu, Kitui, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty, Kwale county, Laikipia East (Tigithi and Thingithu), Agro-Pastoral Zone of Lamu, and Ademasajida ward in Wajir. Outbreak of blue tongue disease in sheep was noted in Garissa, Fafi sub-counties, Laikipia West (Salama Ward) and Kajiado county. In addition, Samburu reported outbreak of Pest De Petit Ruminants (PPR) in small stock while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels was witnessed in Garissa with suspected cases of Q-fever being recorded across Kajiado. Suspected plant poisoning in Songot ward, Turkana had resulted to 48 cattle deaths being recorded. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of cattle during the month under review (Table 5). The observed trend could be attributed to the good cattle body condition that was occasioned by pasture availability and reduced trekking distance to water sources. On the contrary, a negative trend was recorded in about 34 of the ASAL counties. Among the notable factors driving the negative trend included: reduced demand, reduced supply dictated by pastoralist asset holding tendencies, reduced external trader numbers, and restricted market access following the protests witnessed. Notably, the prevailing price in all the counties was above the corresponding usual price for the month as a result of the sustained good cattle body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot River Baringo, Garissa Tana River, Wajir Embu, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Isiolo, Kitui Samburu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices During the review period, about 87 of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with a negative trend being noted in Samburu, Kajiado and Kilifi (Table 6). Improved goat body condition was the major factor driving the observed stability while increased supply in the market as the seasons crop production performed poorly resulted to the negativity witnessed in the aforementioned areas. In addition, the prices reported in all counties were above the respective long-term average for the month of July and that was due to the sustained stable goat body condition throughout the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo Tana River Wajir Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Turkana, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Meru Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Kajiado Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Crop production that entails cultivation of food and horticultural crops is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a considerable age of households practice crop production mainly along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. During the month of July, agricultural activities taking place were as summarized in table 7. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui Maize was at maturity stage, and showed dismal performance, especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone while it was fair in the Mixed Farming Zone. Makueni Most crops were at harvesting stage and in fair to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. The projected crop production was about 60 of the long-term average. Harvesting ended in July with the production expected to be below average due to early cessation of the rainfall, destruction of crops by floods, leaching that led to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Farmers opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as fodder for livestock. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Majority of farmers harvested maize and beans yield at 31 and 14 above normal, respectively. Despite heavy rains causing flooding, the yields still surpassed the long-term average. Narok Currently, majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fairly good condition Pokot Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone are at harvesting stage with green maize being in fair to good condition, while those in Agro- Pastoral Zone were at tasselling stage but already stunted and wilted (poor condition). Taita Maize crop was at harvesting stage, while harvesting of pulses was ongoing for crops that were planted late. The crops were at various stages of growth but mainly poding and tasselling. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize was noted in majority of the counties (65 ) while the remaining areas (35 ) recorded an improving trend over the month under review (Table 8). Availability of maize from external markets and cross-border imports coupled with internal production were the major drivers of the observed trend. Reported maize price in July was lower than the long-term average in about 78 of the counties but above the usual price in Garissa, Wajir and Lamu due to high transportation cost since it is mainly sourced from external markets. Notably, availability of cereal substitutes, improved production since the previous season and continuous supply of the commodity from external sources were the major drivers that had sustained the price of maize below the usual range across majority of the counties. Table 8.0: Maize prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Mandera Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Taita Taveta, Narok Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Narok Garissa, Meru Mandera, Samburu Turkana, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Taita- Taveta 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to domestic water sources was reported in 52 of the counties with the distance remaining stable in about 35 t of the areas while Baringo, Kwale and West Pokot recorded an improving trend (Table 9). Breakdown of some water facilities and reduced water volumes in the open water sources were the drivers of the observed worsening trend with stability being promoted by existence of alternative sources in some areas. The longest distance of 8.6 and 6.7 kilometers was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, the prevailing trekking distance in majority of the areas was below the usual seasonal range and that was due to the impact of the two previous rainfall seasons whose performance was above average. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Wajir, Kitui Kwale Lamu, Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Makueni Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir Makueni, Narok Garissa, Embu Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance remained unchanged in roughly 30 of the areas but increased in about 52 of the areas with Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi recording an improving trend (Table 10). The worsening trend could be attributed to dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources that necessitated livestock to migrate to other areas in certain counties, insecurity, high disease prevalence in some zones and breakdown including dry up of some water facilities. Garissa and Kwale reported the longest distance of 13.7 and 5.7 kilometers among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Notably, the trekking distance reported during the month was within the usual range in majority of the counties (70 ) as a consequence of the sustained impact of the two consecutive above average rainfall seasons. Available water in these areas was anticipated to last for a period of 2-3 months. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui, Kwale Lamu, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, West Pokot Makueni, Meru Baringo Samburu Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot Garissa, Kitui Mandera, Lamu Tana River Kwale Makueni Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Meru Turkana, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade The terms of trade were stable in 48 of the counties while the remaining 52 of the counties reported an improving trend as a consequence of the stable goat price coupled with declining maize prices (Table 11). The lowest terms of trade of 41.6 and 87 were recorded in Turkana and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Additionally, the recorded terms of trade in all the counties were within the usual seasonal range. Consequently, household purchasing power was slightly elevated due to the favorable terms of trade that were majorly influenced by the better goat return value and enhanced production that promoted stability in maize price throughout the period under review. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi Baringo, Nyeri Garissa, Isiolo Marsabit, Narok Tana River Embu, Kitui Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Mandera Samburu Wajir, Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Lamu, Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi 1.7. Health and nutrition Stable nutrition situation was reported in majority of the counties with about 39 of the areas reporting an improving trend over the month under review (Table 12). Improved milk consumption, low morbidity rates, improved food consumption occasioned by favorable terms of trade and fair casual labour wage rates and better hygiene practices were some of the factors driving the positive nutrition outcomes. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the normal ranges in approximately 83 of the counties with only Turkana, Lamu, Garissa and Baringo reporting rates that were above the long-term average. Among the major factors that were sustaining the below average terms of trade included consumption of diverse diets as a result of the enhanced crop and livestock production over the two seasons. On the contrary, the above average rates in the aforementioned counties were influenced by limited access to nutrition commodities following the scale down of health outreaches, constraints on child care behavior, poor infant and young child feeding practices. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Marsabit Kitui Makueni West- Pokot Isiolo, Taita Taveta Mandera, Kajiado Samburu, Laikipia Tana River, Kilifi Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kwale, Meru Narok, Nyeri Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Narok Nyeri West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Lamu Kajiado, Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Laikipia 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 22 ASAL counties were classified as being in the Normal phase while one(1) in Alert Phase of drought. However, an improving trend was observed in Isiolo County, while a worsening trend was reported in seven counties: Marsabit, Kitui, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Turkana, and Garissa. Notably, Kilifi County was recorded in the Alert phase, with a deteriorating trend, as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, July 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot, Samburu Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana Alert Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th July 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 79.38 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Central 86.69 90.34 North 80.75 87.43 South 78.39 83.73 Ravine 81.19 77.84 Mogotio 71.09 77.64 Tiaty 80.05 81.58 MANDERA County 101.79 111.03 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 108.09 118.65 North 102.29 113.89 Banissa 91.64 110.15 117.97 South 100.13 105.89 102.63 116.45 TURKANA County 90.51 72.92 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 77.37 73.07 South 89.33 80.58 Loima 103.27 84.04 Central 97.02 91.63 92.83 65.82 North 88.33 63.93 MARSABI County 94.74 92.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Laisamis 98.25 102.17 Moyale 91.88 90.67 North Horr 93.55 86.95 93.82 108.98 WAJIR County 85.88 84.32 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in July, as compared to the previous month of June. Tarbaj 85.92 North 117.29 127.07 South 76.06 67.16 60.99 63.07 Eldas 91.83 100.9 97.91 87.51 SAMBURU County 99.56 95.72 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 98.13 North 105.04 101.18 86.23 92.33 GARISSA County 86.12 75.56 Balambala 101.38 97.68 Township 81.31 72.07 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Ijara 81.25 68.62 77.71 63.57 Lagdera 95.51 89.68 Dadaab 92.56 83.62 ISIOLO County 77.02 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in July, which was stable when compared to last month. North 81.45 77.07 South 76.94 RIVER County 73.33 66.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Galole 64.44 56.14 Garsen 69.75 57.52 KAJIADO County 88.29 88.34 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Central 88.54 94.13 92.59 North 84.08 81.15 South 83.89 77.53 99.09 LAIKIPIA County 91.81 92.42 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 92.53 87.81 North 96.67 95.18 82.36 89.49 THARAKA NITHI County 78.68 81.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 90.32 90.59 Maara 83.99 84.27 Tharaka 72.59 76.86 POKOT County 71.38 73.47 Kacheliba 65.14 67.41 Kapenguria 71.52 77.93 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Pokot south 85.77 87.34 Sigor 74.11 72.55 County 90.21 92.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 84.86 84.33 Mbeere north 93.67 97.25 Mbeere south 89.62 Runyenjes 90.66 KITUI County 85.48 87.82 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Kitui central 97.94 108.56 Kitui east 91.86 93.31 Kitui rural 98.36 116.67 Kitui south 76.54 71.81 Kitui west 96.25 113.33 Mwingi central 93.55 101.01 Mwingi north 85.2 92.19 Mwingi west 101.35 113.98 MAKUENI County 90.74 95.56 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July, which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Kaiti 97.01 98.49 Kibwezi east 70.53 Kibwezi west 92.13 95.52 Kilome 92.61 94.01 Makueni 102.96 117.83 Mbooni 103.2 119.42 County 86.36 85.64 Buuri 89.04 90.84 Central Imenti 83.57 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of July. Igembe central 89.29 85.91 Igembe north 89.11 81.31 Igembe south 87.55 84.24 North Imenti 77.87 82.72 South Imenti 83.04 84.28 Tigania east 83.51 85.12 Tigania west 83.14 87.11 NYERI County 83.42 86.76 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kieni 84.97 87.43 Mathira 85.47 89.44 Mukurweini 90.19 Nyeri town 84.18 84.73 Othaya 76.95 83.82 76.31 82.03 KILIFI County 55.57 41.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 51.79 Kaloleni 60.43 42.62 Kilifi north 65.96 Kilifi south 60.94 50.71 Magarini 53.91 40.33 Malindi 65.86 50.62 Rabai 69.42 55.98 KWALE County 64.52 47.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in June which was Kinango 61.36 42.11 Lunga Lunga 67.37 48.22 Matuga 72.94 62.23 stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Msambweni 66.78 62.59 County 92.09 80.33 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of July. Lamu east 92.84 85.43 Lamu west 91.65 77.38 TAITA TAVETA County 75.95 68.97 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Mwatate 82.48 74.24 Taveta 84.76 76.97 69.26 62.23 Wundanyi 88.78 90.57 NAROK County 83.59 82.54 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July which was stable when compared to the last month of June. Emurua Dikirr 78.74 82.29 Kilgoris 73.37 67.13 Narok east 81.84 84.45 Narok north 77.26 76.64 Narok south 85.19 87.99 Narok west 91.11 87.08",
            "August_2024.pdf": "AUGUST 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Normal drought phase is expected to continue. Moreover, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.0. million. Acute malnutrition has also improved been noted across the counties with the number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition having reduced from 847,932 (February 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 123,567 (February 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024.Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2024. Figure 1. August 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 August 2024 Rainfall Performance August 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received low rainfall amounts. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 50 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including; Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu continued to receive good amounts of rainfall ranging between 51mm 200mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 20mm. Agro Pastoral cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 50mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 September 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of September 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West especially; Parts of Turkana and West Pokot counties are forecasted to receive near to above rainfall amounts. Figure 2. August 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2024 with that of the previous month of July 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of August remained the same when compared to that of the month of July. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August 2024 The month of August 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous July 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties (3); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation July 2024 August 2024 condition in August 2024 indicates a stability when compared to previous month, July 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit (1)Kilifi (Ganze) Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana and West Pokot, Baringo (104) (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, August 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Kwale Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri, Meru Wajir, Baringo West Pokot, Isiolo Marsabit, Samburu Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri Wajir, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Majority of the areas reported the body condition for both cattle and goats as being good to fair. Consequently, roughly 57 and 65 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle and goats respectively to be good to very good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of August was normal to above normal to the one normally witnessed during the period. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, August 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Nyeri, Garissa Kwale, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Stabilization in milk production attributable to improved yields from all species more so the small stock due to high birth rates was recorded in 61 percent of the counties (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed stable to improving trend included; minimal disease incidents, good body condition advanced by forage availability, limited migration and fairly better tropical livestock units. The production level over the reporting month was above the usual seasonal range. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Narok, Taita- Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Tana River Kilifi Baringo Turkana, Kwale West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Lamu Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka- Nithi 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) were reported across Kitui and Kajiado counties with Trypanosomiasis being recorded in Mutha and Kaziku wards in Kitui South Sub county. Increased incidences of endo and ecto parasites were reported in congested water points in Garissa while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels and Peste des Petits ruminants (PPR) in goats was reported in Fafi and Dadaab sub counties. In Marsabit, an estimated 2,865 goats presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths have been reported with a 20 percent case fatality rate (CFR). In addition, about 1,021 sheep had clinical symptoms while 184 died with 18 percent case fatality rate. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels have also been reported affecting about 1,618 out of which 185 have died. Samburu county reported increased cases of abortions in small stock. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the market price of cattle was noted over most areas during the reporting period (Table 5). Cattle body condition remained fair to good due to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distances hence the observed trend in market price. Counties reporting a negative trend in market price cited reduced demand as a result of the high and unattractive price for the usual buyers, market disruptions occasioned by disease and conflicts, and market surplus some driven by distress sales due to poor harvests as the drivers of the observed situation. Overall, the sustained good body condition during the month under review had resulted to prevailing price being comparably better to the one reported for a similar period over the past three years. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kitui, Meru Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Kwale Laikipia 1.3.6 Goat Prices Throughout the month under review, a stable trend in the price of goat at the market was recorded in all areas except in Kilifi and Wajir (Table 6). The noted positive trend could be attributed to a good goat body condition occasioned by availability of quality palatable browse in most areas while the negative trend in the aforementioned counties was due to low demand coupled with high supply in the market and increasing trekking distance to water sources in some areas that had impacted on the health of the species. Notably, the reported price was higher than the corresponding three-year average in all the counties and that was down to the sustained good body condition over the period driven by above average rangeland conditions across most areas following the above normal consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot Wajir Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties during the month of August. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Makueni Harvesting was still on-going in parts of the county with the yield expected to be roughly 60 percent of the long-term average. Cereals production is expected to be below average due to the early cessation of the March to May rainfall at the critical stage of pod and grain filling. In addition, crops were destroyed through leaching that resulted to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Farmers were harvesting pigeon peas with the yields being above normal due to the good performance of the rainfall season. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage and in fairly good condition. Laikipia Maize harvesting was ongoing across most areas and households were already consuming the green maize. There was invasion of migratory Quelea quelea birds in Laikipia West Sub-County that destroyed wheat and maize at the milking stage. Approximately 500 acres of wheat and 150 acres of maize had been affected. Meanwhile, the department of agriculture was managing the situation through ground spraying by use of motorist sprayers. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable in all the areas over the period under analysis (Table 8). Price stabilization could be ascribed to availability of the commodity in the market from internal sources (own farm production) plus supplementation by external supplies (with large stocks being held by traders and millers) from high agricultural potential areas whose market prices were not experiencing any volatility. Equally, the prevailing price was above the respective long-term average in about 78 percent of the counties attributable to above average production over the past two seasons, increased cross-border imports acquired at fairly low prices coupled with availability of other cereals like sorghum and rice that households supplemented their diets with hence low demand on maize. However, elevated prices above the historical three-year averages and basically deviating from typical price patterns was noted in about 22 percent of the ASAL areas with high transportation cost, local demand dynamics and potentially constrained local supply being the major drivers of the witnessed scenario. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Baringo, Wajir, Lamu Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Mandera, Kitui, Embu Samburu, Kwale Tana River, Kilifi Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta Narok, West Pokot Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Narok West Pokot, Nyeri 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, majority of the counties constituting about 78 percent reported unchanged trekking distances to water sources in relation to the previous period with Samburu recording a significant decline (Table 9). Increase in trekking distance noted in about four counties could be attributed to continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures. The longest distance of approximately nine(9) and 6.9 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Recorded distance in a significant proportion of the ASAL counties was below the respective five-year averages and that was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall over the previous long and short rain seasons that promoted remarkable recharge. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Kitui Makueni Nyeri West- Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Kajiado Samburu, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok, Tharaka Nithi Samburu Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale, Narok Laikipia, Makueni Taita Taveta, Meru Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Kajiado 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stabilization in trekking distance from grazing zones to water points was noted in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining recorded an increase (Table 10). The worsening trend observed in the later counties could be attributed to reduced number of surface water sources due to drying up, insufficient water infrastructure in some sites hence inadequate water was impounded and decrease in alternative water sources. Notably the longest distance of 15.9 and 8.1 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. In addition, the prevailing distance was within the normal distance for the period in about 78 percent of the areas and that could be ascribed to availability of forage within sites in close proximity to water sources following the notable regeneration witnessed over the previous rainfall seasons. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni Narok Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Meru, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Turkana Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo, Embu Kajiado Kitui Kwale, Lamu Makueni West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Unchanged terms of trade were recorded in majority of the counties with respect to the previous month while improvements were noted in Samburu, Tana River, Embu and Meru as a consequence of the drop in maize prices reported (Table 11). Stable goat and maize prices in most of the ASAL counties contributed to a greater extent towards the stability observed in the terms of trade across August. Turkana and Lamu counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 43 and 84 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. Notably, the prevailing terms of trade over the month under review were within the seasonal range in all counties driven by the enhanced maize stocks in the market and good body condition for goat that resulted to reduced prices for the commodity and better market returns for goat above the historical averages. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Samburu Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir Marsabit, West Pokot Tana River, Turkana, Lamu Embu, Kajiado, Kwale Samburu Tana River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Lamu Makueni, Kajiado Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Wajir West Pokot, Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable in majority (57 percent) of the counties across the period under analysis while about 21 percent of the counties reported a worsening trend (Table 12). Among the factors contributing to the stable with a tendency to improve in the nutrition situation in about 22 percent of the areas included: milk availability hence improved consumption levels and consumption of diverse diets driven by improved agricultural production and slightly elevated purchasing power that promoted access via the markets. The rise in malnutrition in the mapped counties could be linked to households selling their harvests to cover other costs often at the expense of maintaining healthy eating and chronic challenges associated with stunting and scale down of supplies to facilities in the management of malnutrition. Save for Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa whose reported malnutrition rates were outside the seasonal range attributable to closure of some health outreach sites, high prevalence of morbidities that affect nutrient absorption, poor health environments and child feeding practices, the rates in all the other counties were within their usual ranges. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Makueni Samburu Kitui West- Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Laikipia Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Laikipia Narok Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Marsabit Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Lamu, Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties except Garissa and Kilifi were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to worsening trend as shown in table 13. - Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, West Pokot Marsabit, Tana River Kitui, Kwale Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th August 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 88.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August. Central 90.34 85.78 North 87.43 86.89 South 83.73 87.22 Ravine 77.84 69.36 Mogotio 77.64 85.24 Tiaty 81.58 MANDERA County 111.03 119.68 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 118.65 125.72 North 113.89 Banissa 91.64 96.04 117.97 122.21 South 105.89 115.24 116.45 117.35 TURKANA County 72.92 88.4 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.07 73.12 South 80.58 82.06 Loima 84.04 82.16 Central 91.63 99.72 65.82 70.28 North 63.93 65.45 MARSABI County 92.67 101.58 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August which was stable when compared to previous month of July. Laisamis 102.17 101.36 Moyale 90.67 88.72 North Horr 86.95 92.58 108.98 112.66 WAJIR County 84.32 100.42 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in August, as compared to the previous month of July. Tarbaj 94.84 North 127.07 127.22 South 67.16 75.15 63.07 77.03 Eldas 100.9 87.51 91.44 SAMBURU County 95.72 95.69 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 96.16 North 101.18 93.62 92.33 89.45 GARISSA County 75.56 76.3 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Balambala 97.68 99.29 Township 72.07 76.48 Ijara 68.62 63.57 60.43 Lagdera 89.68 98.08 Dadaab 83.62 80.21 ISIOLO County 77.02 107.99 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in August, which was stable when compared to last month. North 77.07 90.52 South 76.94 88.75 RIVER County 66.67 80.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. 90.19 Galole 56.14 63.04 Garsen 57.52 62.05 KAJIADO County 88.34 114.07 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Central 88.92 92.59 102.43 North 81.15 88.03 South 77.53 84.83 99.09 115.09 LAIKIPIA County 92.42 103.11 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.81 North 95.18 98.81 89.49 92.54 THARAKA NITHI County 81.31 100.8 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 90.59 99.96 Maara 84.27 90.55 Tharaka 76.86 85.61 POKOT County 73.47 79.32 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Kacheliba 67.41 72.66 Kapenguria 77.93 79.59 Pokot south 87.34 81.63 Sigor 72.55 72.56 County 92.36 116.12 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 84.33 89.34 Mbeere north 97.25 110.87 Mbeere south 92.4 104.39 Runyenjes KITUI County 87.82 103.34 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 108.56 121.29 Kitui east 93.31 98.83 Kitui rural 116.67 134.98 Kitui south 71.81 79.06 Kitui west 113.33 127.86 Mwingi central 101.01 103.66 Mwingi north 92.19 97.36 Mwingi west 113.98 126.43 MAKUENI County 95.56 Kaiti 98.49 115.35 Kibwezi east 70.53 77.16 Kibwezi west 95.52 103.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August, which was stable when compared to previous month of July. Kilome 94.01 113.55 Makueni 117.83 131.77 Mbooni 119.42 137.64 County 85.64 95.22 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of August. Buuri 90.84 91.94 Central Imenti 83.57 82.48 Igembe central 85.91 Igembe north 81.31 89.81 Igembe south 84.24 85.59 North Imenti 82.72 77.67 South Imenti 84.28 86.76 Tigania east 85.12 92.47 Tigania west 87.11 97.05 NYERI County 86.76 88.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August. Kieni 87.43 92.69 Mathira 89.44 88.99 Mukurweini 90.19 91.69 Nyeri town 84.73 84.18 Othaya 83.82 83.39 82.03 85.55 KILIFI County 41.22 41.01 Ganze 31.21 Kaloleni 42.62 Kilifi north 47.18 Kilifi south 50.71 44.87 Magarini 40.33 40.15 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Ganze, worsened to moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Malindi 50.62 47.42 Rabai 55.98 49.38 KWALE County 47.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in August which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Kinango 42.11 37.84 Lunga Lunga 48.22 37.67 Matuga 62.23 53.33 Msambweni 62.59 58.01 County 80.33 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Lamu east 85.43 79.39 Lamu west 77.38 70.88 TAITA TAVETA County 68.97 87.02 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Mwatate 74.24 76.56 Taveta 76.97 85.15 62.23 70.75 Wundanyi 90.57 96.58 NAROK County 82.54 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which was stable when compared to the last month of July. Emurua Dikirr 82.29 81.59 Kilgoris 67.13 68.05 Narok east 84.45 90.38 Narok north 76.64 78.72 Narok south 87.99 101.97 Narok west 87.08 89.97",
            "September_2024.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Two (2) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on worsening trend in most of the ASAL counties due to delayed onset of OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of September 2024. Figure 1. September 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 September 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 2 presents the rainfall performance for September 2024. During this month, rainfall patterns varied across the ASAL counties: Pastoral North East counties like Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, and Garissa experienced minimal rainfall, receiving between 2 to 50 mm. In contrast, Pastoral North West counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, and Samburu observed significant rainfall ranging from 51 to 200 mm, attributed to the JJA season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties (Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, and Kitui) registered very low rainfall, between 2 and 20 mm. Agro-Pastoral areas (Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri, and West Pokot) received moderate rainfall, ranging between 11 to 50 mm. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, and Lamu) also saw low rainfall amounts between 11 to 50 1.1.2 October 2024 rainfall outlook Figure 3 shows the forecast for October 2024. The outlook suggests that: The Pastoral North East region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, and Garissa) and the South East Marginal Agriculture zone (Kitui, Makueni, Embu will likely experience sunny and dry conditions. Agro-Pastoral zones such as Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, and Laikipia are forecasted to remain predominantly dry. Similarly, the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale) are also expected to experience mostly sunny and dry conditions. However, parts of Pastoral North West counties, especially Turkana and West Pokot, may receive near to above-average rainfall. Figure 2. September 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. October 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2024 with that of the previous month of August 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of September remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of August. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of August and September 2024 The month of September 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of August. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two August 2024 September 2024 counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze) Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (103) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, September 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Kwale Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Wajir, Baringo West Pokot, Isiolo Marsabit, Samburu Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri Wajir, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, September 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Nyeri, Garissa Kwale, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable however on a worsening trend (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed trend is deteriorating pasture and browse condition in select areas within different counties. The production level over the reporting month was at par with the usual production level but on a worsening trend in most of the counties in relation to August. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita- Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Tana River Kilifi, Lamu Garissa, Marsabit Isiolo, Kwale Mandera, Lamu, Nyeri Tana River Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Baringo Turkana, West Pokot Samburu Wajir, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka- Nithi, Garissa, Marsabit 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Confirmed cases of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in cattle were reported in Katilu and Kerio wards in Turkana while Tsetse fly infestation was witnessed in the cross-border areas of Loima and Turkana West. Various diseases including clostridial infections like Enterotoxaemia in sheep, abortions were reported in Kajiado. Suspected Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Kajiado, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango, Kitui (Mutha and Kaziku wards), Laikipia (Tigithi, Salama, Thingithu). In addition, confirmed cases of Blue Tongue were reported in Githiga and Olmoran wards in Laikipia West Sub County. Outbreak of pestes des petit ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats was reported in Laikipia (Olmoran) and across parts of West Pokot such as Chepareria, Masol, Lomut, Kiwawa. About 2,646 sheep and goats were vaccinated against the disease in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties continued reporting stable cattle prices across the period under review, however, a deteriorating trend was noted in Garissa, Wajir, Embu and Makueni (Table 5). The noted trend was as a consequence of the body condition of the cattle remaining fairly similar to the previous month driven by availability of pasture and water in some areas within the respective ASAL counties. Among the factors driving the price negativity in the aforementioned counties included market disruptions and surplus from last mile markets. Notably, the reported price in all the counties was above the long-term average as a result of the sustained FAIR to GOOD body condition of the cattle. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Embu Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Baringo Turkana Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Tana- River Garissa Wajir Makueni Marsabit 1.3.6 Goat Prices The price of goat remained fairly stable in majority of the counties throughout the month of September with price decline being noted in about 30 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 6). Stability in goat price could be ascribed to a good to fair goat body condition occasioned by availability of browse albeit in select areas within the different counties while low demand at the market was cited as the major driver of the observed price negativity in some counties. As a consequence of the rangeland conditions remaining relatively good following the previous two good rainfall seasons, the sustained good body condition of the goat resulted to all counties reporting a price that was above the respective long-term average for the period under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Nyeri Laikipia, Mandera Makueni, Samburu Narok, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Kwale Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Among the clusters where agricultural activities that entail food and horticultural crops production include the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below depicts the crop situation across the ASAL counties during the month of September. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kilifi Farmers in the marginal mixed farming zone of Magarini Sub- county recorded some water melons, cassava and amaranths harvest. Taita Taveta Most farmers were undertaking land preparations and a few were doing dry planting. Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and maize stovers. In the mixed farming and irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kitui Minimal farming activities were witnessed with farmers having already harvested and waiting for the short rains season preparations for cultivation of various crops. The long rains harvests were dismal, owing to erratic rains that led to moisture stress on crops at grain filling stage, while those who planted their maize late realized total crop failure. Agropastoral Laikipia Some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were harvesting maize that was still in the farms. The projected yield is expected to be above average due to improved farming practices and favourable weather condition. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone were at harvesting stage with some farmers preparing land for the short rains season. Pokot Crops that survived water stress in the pastoral Livelihood zone were at harvesting stage (for green grams, sorghum and maize). In addition to rain-fed cropping, the main crops grown under irrigated farming were onions, tomatoes, cabbages and kales in parts of Pokot South and Pokot West Sub Counties. The crops were in various stages of growth and in good condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in maize prices was evident over all the counties during the period under review (Table 8). Among the factors driving the observed price stabilization included availability of the commodity in the market following the harvesting that was taking place coupled with external supplies and cross-border imports that were relatively cheaper. Notably, the recorded price in about 70 percent of the counties was below the respective long-term average while above the three-year average in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa attributable to over-reliance on external supplies and high transportation costs. On the other hand, below average prices in majority of the areas was as a result of reduced demand for maize occasioned by availability of cereal substitutes. Table 8.0: Maize prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- Garissa Wajir Mandera Turkana Kilifi Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Samburu West- Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Samburu, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to water sources was noted in about 70 percent of the counties over the month under analysis with unchanged distances in relation to the previous month being reported in Embu, Mandera and Tana River (Table 9). Continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures was the major factor driving the observed trend in majority of the areas. The longest distance of roughly 10 and 7.3 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Reported distance in about 35 percent of the ASAL counties was above the corresponding long-term average and that was as a consequence of the drying up of some water sources and increased break-downs witnessed across the period under review. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Kitui Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Narok West- Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Mandera Samburu Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Mandera Tana- River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Kajiado, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit, Samburu 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Approximately 61 percent of the counties reported increasing distance to water points from grazing areas while unchanged distances with respect to August were noted in about 39 percent of the counties (Table 10). Drying up of some open water sources, drop in water table and breakdown of facilities due to overuse were cited as the drivers of the observed worsening trend in the water situation. The longest distance of 18.4 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. On the contrary, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was below the seasonal distance for the period and that could be attributed to availability of forage around some water sources occasioned by the massive regeneration that took place during the March to May period and sustained by the rainfall witnessed over the June to August period in some counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Samburu 1.6 Terms of trade Majority of the counties constituting about 70 percent reported stable terms of trade in relation to the month of August while deterioration was noted in Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Meru and Samburu as a consequence of the slightly elevated maize prices and declining goat prices (Table 11). Garissa and Kilifi counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 41 and 104 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, the reported terms of trade in all the counties across September were above their respective long-term average attributable to fairly low trading price of maize aided by ongoing harvest and stocks from the previous season coupled with the body condition of goat that remained good over the past two seasons hence better market return value. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Samburu West Pokot, Mandera Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Turkana Kajiado, Kitui Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Tana River Garissa Isiolo Wajir Kilifi Samburu 1.7. Health and nutrition Stability in the nutrition situation was witnessed across most counties while about 43 percent of the counties reported a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Availability of milk albeit in low quantities prioritized for consumption by the under-fives, and consumption of diverse diets due to the slightly elevated purchasing power were some of the drivers of the observed trend. On the other hand, scale down of nutrition supplies through outreaches and poor child care practices were the major drivers of the worsening trend in the mapped counties. All the counties except West Pokot, Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa reported malnutrition rates that were within the usual range with factors such as high morbidity rates and poor health care seeking behaviour contributing to the higher-than-average malnutrition rates observed. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Makueni West Pokot Kitui Isiolo, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Samburu Tana River, Marsabit Baringo Garissa Turkana, Embu Kwale. Makueni Narok West Pokot Samburu Lamu, Nyeri Taita Taveta Mandera Isiolo, Wajir Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 12 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase and on a stable trend, nine at Normal phase and on a deteriorating trend while two are at Alert phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, September 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, North, Nyeri, Samburu, Lamu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Tana River, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex1- Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th September 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 29th Septemb Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 92.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Central 85.78 89.92 North 86.89 91.25 South 87.22 91.81 Ravine 69.36 Mogotio 85.24 94.51 Tiaty 97.16 MANDERA County 119.68 121.82 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of August at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 125.72 134.87 North 126.19 Banissa 96.04 99.71 122.21 122.06 South 115.24 118.73 117.35 126.38 TURKANA County 92.48 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.12 90.43 South 82.06 Loima 82.16 98.43 Central 99.72 106.27 70.28 92.72 North 65.45 83.71 MARSABI County 101.58 95.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September which was stable when compared to previous month of August. Laisamis 101.36 96.21 Moyale 88.72 95.66 North Horr 92.58 94.86 112.66 114.19 WAJIR County 100.42 98.15 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in September, as compared to the previous month of August. Tarbaj 94.84 105.88 North 127.22 126.02 South 75.15 82.11 77.03 90.45 Eldas 112.16 91.44 94.99 SAMBURU County 95.69 100.61 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 96.16 106.81 North 93.62 95.12 89.45 94.18 GARISSA County 74.5 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of September. Balambala 99.29 105.85 Township 76.48 74.11 Ijara 55.87 60.43 60.93 Lagdera 98.08 107.14 Dadaab 80.21 77.02 ISIOLO County 107.99 110.52 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 90.52 110.61 South 88.75 110.38 RIVER County 80.6 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of September. 90.19 90.19 Galole 63.04 63.04 Garsen 62.05 62.05 KAJIADO County 114.07 108.42 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. Central 88.92 98.91 102.43 114.06 North 88.03 82.11 South 84.83 98.51 115.09 LAIKIPIA County 103.11 101.22 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.33 North 98.81 109.63 92.54 92.18 THARAKA NITHI County 100.8 92.63 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 99.96 98.29 Maara 90.55 Tharaka 85.61 92.58 POKOT County 79.32 84.2 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kacheliba 72.66 83.67 Kapenguria 79.59 84.32 Pokot south 81.63 83.38 Sigor 72.56 85.55 County 116.12 105.34 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.34 78.08 Mbeere north 110.87 119.71 Mbeere south 104.39 109.59 Runyenjes KITUI County 103.34 100.77 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kitui central 121.29 130.65 Kitui east 98.83 104.7 Kitui rural 134.98 147.82 Kitui south 79.06 85.76 Kitui west 127.86 134.14 Mwingi central 103.66 106.09 Mwingi north 97.36 103.58 Mwingi west 126.43 136.45 MAKUENI County 115.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September, which was stable when compared to previous month of August. Kaiti 115.35 120.08 Kibwezi east 77.16 88.87 Kibwezi west 103.04 109.91 Kilome 113.55 124.63 Makueni 131.77 138.03 Mbooni 137.64 143.86 County 95.22 99.83 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of September. Buuri 91.94 100.5 Central Imenti 82.48 82.62 Igembe central 110.67 Igembe north 89.81 112.27 Igembe south 85.59 104.29 North Imenti 77.67 83.49 South Imenti 86.76 81.38 Tigania east 92.47 95.38 Tigania west 97.05 103.21 NYERI County 88.94 85.64 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Kieni 92.69 92.12 Mathira 88.99 82.94 Mukurweini 91.69 75.45 Nyeri town 84.18 75.96 Othaya 83.39 74.66 85.55 75.94 KILIFI County 41.01 37.71 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 31.21 32.86 Kaloleni 43.36 Kilifi north 47.18 Kilifi south 44.87 42.56 Magarini 40.15 38.49 Malindi 47.42 40.92 Rabai 49.38 47.61 KWALE County 42.02 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in September which was stable when compared to last month. All sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Kinango 37.84 40.31 Lunga Lunga 37.67 40.26 Matuga 53.33 Msambweni 58.01 53.58 County 65.48 Lamu east 79.39 73.96 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of September. Lamu west 70.88 60.57 TAITA TAVETA County 87.02 81.15 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Mwatate 76.56 75.08 Taveta 85.15 96.52 70.75 74.33 Wundanyi 96.58 106.09 NAROK County 82.96 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September which was stable when compared to the last month of August. Emurua Dikirr 81.59 Kilgoris 68.05 64.19 Narok east 90.38 84.97 Narok north 78.72 70.83 Narok south 101.97 99.13 Narok west 89.97 82.96",
            "October_2024.pdf": "October 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Nineteen counties categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season and just ended June to September (JJAS) light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Four (4) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on a worsening trend across most of the ASAL counties due to the delayed onset of the October December (OND) season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, the number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of October 2024. Figure 1. October 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 October 2024 Rainfall Performance As shown in figure 2, October 2024, Kenya experienced mostly below-normal rainfall across various regions. The PNE cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River) received notably low rainfall, with many areas seeing less than 50 of typical levels, especially in Mandera and Wajir. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) had significant deficits, with Turkana and Marsabit receiving very low amounts. In the CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta), rainfall was mostly below normal, particularly in Taita Taveta, which fell below 50 of expected levels. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) also experienced low rainfall, especially in Makueni and Kitui. The AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri) had mixed performance, with some areas like Baringo and Kajiado below normal, while parts of West Pokot and Nyeri approached near-normal rainfall. 1.1.2 November 2024 rainfall outlook The November 2024 rainfall forecast for Kenya indicates predominantly below-average rainfall across the specified clusters, as shown in figure 3. In the PNE cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), below-average rainfall is expected, with widespread dry conditions likely. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) is forecasted to receive near to below-average rainfall, though some areas may experience near-average conditions. The CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta) is also expected to face below-average rainfall, with coastal areas particularly affected. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) will likely experience near to below-average rainfall, signaling Figure 2. October 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. November 2024 Rainfall forecast generally dry conditions. In the AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall is forecasted to be near to below average, with potential near-normal conditions in some parts of West Pokot and Laikipia. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2024 with that of the previous month of September 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of October remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at moderate vegetation deficit and normal vegetation greenness index respectively. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of September and October 2024 The month of October 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of September. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one September 2024 October 2024 (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. One county (1); Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness, while one county (1); Kilifi recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi Kilifi (Ganze, North, Magarini, Malindi) Normal vegetation greenness Kwale Kilifi (South, Rabai, Kaloleni), Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Msambweni) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (102) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 74 and 65 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, October 2024 Pasture Browse Baringo, Kwale Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Embu Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Tana river Laikipia Narok Nyeri West Pokot Embu, Isiolo, Meru Makueni, Mandera Samburu, Taita Taveta Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Garissa, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Marsabit, Narok Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, October 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Mandera, Wajir Tana River Garissa, Kitui Marsabit, Baringo Samburu, Isiolo Kwale, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Nyeri Laikipia, Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Mandera, Wajir Tana River Garissa, Kitui Marsabit, Baringo, Nyeri, Kwale, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot, Laikipia Turkana, Samburu Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo 1.3.4. Livestock diseases In Turkana County Lumpy Skin Disease has spread to new areas in Turkana due to cattle migration from South Sudan and Ethiopia. CBPP cases were found in multiple wards, while Tsetse fly infestations and tickborne diseases like Anaplasmosis and Babesiosis affected parts of Turkana West. No livestock deaths from drought were reported. Kwale reported cases of foot and mouth disease, CBPP, and Newcastle disease, while Kajiado had suspected cases of Pleuropneumonia, PPR, East Coast Fever, Lumpy Skin Disease, and Sheep and Goat Pox. In West Pokot, community reports indicated suspected cases of foot and mouth, LSD, CBPP, CCPP, PPR, and Newcastle disease. Baringo saw only endemic cases such as CCPP, PPR, mange, and Sheep and Goat Pox. Garissa faced ongoing challenges with endemic diseases, including CBPP, CCPP, trypanosomiasis, and hemorrhagic septicemia, especially impacting small livestock and cattle. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Declining trend in the market price of cattle was noted in about 43 percent of the counties while stability was witnessed in the other areas (Table 5). Deterioration in the body condition of cattle as a consequence of fair to poor pasture condition in the reporting counties was the major driver of the observed negative trend. Additionally, increased market supply and distress sales due to poor harvests were other notable price drivers. The prevailing price of cattle was above the seasonal range in all the counties due to the impact of the previous two rainfall seasons that enhanced pasture and water availability hence limiting elongated trekking. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu, Lamu Tana River, Turkana, Meru Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, West Pokot Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Kwale Tana River, Narok, Turkana, Lamu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in the market price of goat was recorded in majority of the counties constituting 83 percent with price decline being noted in select areas like Garissa, Tana River, Meru and Taita Taveta (Table 6). The major factor cited for the price negativity in the four counties was increased supply of goats to markets while the relative stability reported in most areas could be attributed to a good body condition occasioned by availability of dry browse in the counties. Sustained good rangeland conditions over time following the previous two enhanced rainfall seasons had resulted to all the counties reporting prices that were above the usual seasonal range owing to the good body condition exhibited by goats compared to historical periods. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Garissa Tana River Taita- Taveta 1.4 Crop production Food and horticultural crops production is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. In addition, within the other clusters, some households practice irrigated agriculture along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. Majorly, farmers were engaged in land preparation in anticipation of the short rains whose onset had delayed. Other crop production activities taking place in the various counties were as outlined in table 7.0. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kilifi Minimal land preparation was ongoing as the short rains season recorded a delay with a high likelihood of recorded depressed rains. Harvesting of mangoes, cassava and amaranths was reported however the quantities were low. Taita Taveta Farmers were undertaking land preparation with few dry planting. Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and stovers to conserve as livestock feed. In the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale The major activity carried out by majority of the farmers was land preparation in anticipation of the OND onset that had delayed. Majority of the farmers were preparing their farms in readiness for planting while a small portion of farmers in the mixed farming livelihood zone were harvesting simsim. Most of the households currently have little food stocks due to below average production over the previous seasons. Kitui Land preparation and planting for the short rain season was on going in most areas with no germination witnessed as a consequence of the county not having attained the onset. Makueni Land preparation and dry planting was on going across the county in anticipation of the short rains for planting. Majority of farmers had planted maize and beans with a few engaged in land preparation. Along the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone of Tigania East, crops planted earlier had started withering due to moisture stress. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Farmers were still preparing their farms in anticipation of the short rains Narok Majority of farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were preparing land in readiness for the short rains season with those who had planted early engaged in weeding. Pokot Land preparation was ongoing with crops under irrigated agriculture in Pokot South and West at various stages and in good condition. Baringo The farmers were preparing their farms in anticipation of the short rains. Laikipia Farmers in Laikipia East Sub County were preparing their land in readiness for the October to December (OND) rainfall. However, some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia west and parts of Laikipia North Sub counties, farmers were finalizing with harvesting maize. Nyeri The main on farm activity was land preparation in anticipation of the short rains season. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the ASAL counties reported stable maize prices during the period under review with price increase being noted in 25 percent of the areas (Table 8). Increased supplies from external markets in the adjacent agricultural counties, cross-border imports coupled with availability of substitute cereals were some of the factors influencing the observed stability. Reported maize price was within the normal range in all the counties except Mandera, Wajir and Garissa whose prices were heavily driven by the high transportation costs. Availability of stocks at the household level hence reduced demand was the major driver for the below normal maize prices recorded across most counties in October. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Wajir Marsabit Turkana Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo, Meru Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia, Nyeri Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Narok West- Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household return distance to water source increased in roughly 44 percent of the counties while relatively unchanged trekking distances were recorded in approximately 56 percent of the areas throughout the month under review (Table 9). Limited water access options occasioned by dry up of open water sources like water pans and breakdown of boreholes in close proximity to households due to overuse were the major drivers of the observed trend. Garissa and Kitui reported the longest distance of 10.3 and 6.9 kilometers respectively among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Consequently, 39 percent of the counties recorded trekking distances that were outside the usual range following the high land surface temperatures that accelerated depletion of the water resource in a number of counties. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa, Nyeri Tana River Wajir, Kwale Lamu, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Kilifi Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Mandera Marsabit, Embu Kajiado, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Lamu Marsabit, Embu Tana River Turkana, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Samburu Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Meru, Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Elongated return trekking distance to water from grazing areas was noted in about 61 percent of the counties while unchanged distances in relation to September were recorded in 39 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 10). Notable drivers of the observed worsening trend in the aforementioned counties included deterioration in the quality and quantity of forage in sites adjacent to open water sources, significant drop in water table especially within the pastoral livelihood zones and breakdown of boreholes utilized as livestock watering points. The longest distance of 18.7 and 8.2 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi- Arid counties respectively. Noteworthy, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was within the seasonal range attributable to the impact of the previous rainfall season that promoted recharge of water facilities and forage regeneration across most areas. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi West- Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Lamu Tana River, Narok Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Meru Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Stability in the terms of trade was recorded in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining counties reported a deteriorating trend in the terms of trade (Table 11). Declining goat prices coupled with marginally elevated maize prices were the major drivers of the worsening trend reported in 40 percent of the ASAL counties. The lowest terms of trade averaging 39.5 and 97 were recorded in Garissa and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively implying pastoral households were comparatively disadvantaged in these counties. With respect to the usual seasonal ranges, all counties reported terms of trade that were within the long-term average as a consequence of the relative stability observed in relation to livestock and agricultural productivity. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit Turkana, Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado, Kwale Lamu, Meru Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation as visualized through the mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) targeting under-fives remained relatively stable in majority of the counties with about 35 percent of the counties recording a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Consumption of fairly diverse diets, availability of milk for utilization by the under-fives coupled with roll out of health outreaches that enhanced access to essential nutrition commodities were some of the notable drivers of the observed trend. Poor child care practices and high morbidity rates were the other notable factors influencing nutrition situation deterioration in the select counties. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was within the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties with Baringo, Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni and West Pokot reporting out of the normal range proportions. The out of the long-term average proportions reported could be attributed to persistent poor health seeking behavior and child feeding practices Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Turkana Kitui Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu Makueni, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kwale Laikipia, Meru Narok 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 19 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while four Counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale and Tana River are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Marsabit, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot, Wajir Alert Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th October 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th Septemb VCI-3 month as at 27th October Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 92.65 93.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Central 89.92 92.21 North 91.25 89.41 South 91.81 93.24 Ravine Mogotio 94.51 95.35 Tiaty 97.16 97.56 Mandera County 121.82 101.53 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of September at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 134.87 108.08 North 126.19 107.51 Banissa 99.71 78.92 122.06 101.33 South 118.73 104.61 126.38 99.36 Turkana County 92.48 87.61 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 90.43 85.43 South 94.88 Loima 98.43 95.94 Central 106.27 99.51 92.72 88.11 North 83.71 77.91 Marsabit County 95.94 86.53 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October which was stable when compared to previous month of September. Laisamis 96.21 87.96 Moyale 95.66 North Horr 94.86 86.14 114.19 104.59 Wajir County 98.15 85.44 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in October, as compared to the previous month of September. Tarbaj 105.88 94.25 North 126.02 105.96 South 82.11 73.15 90.45 77.93 Eldas 112.16 94.34 94.99 85.28 Samburu County 100.61 91.15 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 106.81 92.05 North 95.12 89.67 94.18 92.62 Garissa County 68.9 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of October. Balambala 105.85 92.98 Township 74.11 68.94 Ijara 55.87 60.93 58.76 Lagdera 107.14 94.11 Dadaab 77.02 67.11 Isiolo County 110.52 99.85 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 110.61 100.94 South 110.38 98.18 Tana River County 63.95 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of October. 90.19 78.44 Galole 63.04 Garsen 62.05 55.87 Kajiado County 108.42 105.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Central 98.91 102.19 114.06 112.58 North 82.11 87.09 South 98.51 93.81 114.72 Laikipia County 101.22 95.54 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.33 73.62 North 109.63 105.01 92.18 Tharaka Nithi County 92.63 81.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 98.29 Maara 81.81 Tharaka 92.58 77.56 West Pokot County 86.13 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kacheliba 83.67 Kapenguria 84.32 86.28 Pokot south 83.38 89.75 Sigor 85.55 89.02 County 105.34 96.83 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 78.08 76.45 Mbeere north 119.71 105.85 Mbeere south 109.59 100.23 Runyenjes 86.82 Kitui County 100.77 87.6 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kitui central 130.65 119.89 Kitui east 104.7 85.33 Kitui rural 147.82 133.74 Kitui south 85.76 75.76 Kitui west 134.14 121.84 Mwingi central 106.09 92.11 Mwingi north 103.58 88.02 Mwingi west 136.45 124.52 Makueni County 115.36 108.99 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, which was stable when compared to previous month of September. Kaiti 120.08 121.2 Kibwezi east 88.87 83.25 Kibwezi west 109.91 100.04 Kilome 124.63 120.73 Makueni 138.03 130.24 Mbooni 143.86 140.27 County 99.83 94.39 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of October. Buuri 100.5 Central Imenti 82.62 84.55 Igembe central 110.67 Igembe north 112.27 105.25 Igembe south 104.29 90.87 North Imenti 83.49 92.07 South Imenti 81.38 81.72 Tigania east 95.38 85.53 Tigania west 103.21 100.26 Nyeri County 85.64 83.73 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in October. Kieni 92.12 87.79 Mathira 82.94 83.94 Mukurweini 75.45 77.05 Nyeri town 75.96 78.48 Othaya 74.66 73.59 75.94 78.21 Kilifi County 37.71 33.58 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of October. Kilifi North, Magarini, Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 32.86 29.77 Kaloleni 43.36 39.58 Kilifi north 31.33 Kilifi south 42.56 40.13 Magarini 38.49 34.15 Malindi 40.92 33.93 Rabai 47.61 42.59 Kwale County 42.02 37.92 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in October which was stable when compared to last month. Several sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 40.31 35.33 Lunga Lunga 40.26 37.96 Matuga Msambweni 53.58 47.12 County 65.48 62.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of October. Lamu east 73.96 73.88 Lamu west 60.57 56.52 Taita Taveta County 81.15 71.11 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Mwatate 75.08 61.89 Taveta 96.52 88.48 74.33 64.42 Wundanyi 106.09 95.08 Narok County 82.96 80.61 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October which was stable when compared to the last month of September. Emurua Dikirr 70.85 Kilgoris 64.19 66.43 Narok east 84.97 81.68 Narok north 70.83 64.41 Narok south 99.13 93.43 Narok west 82.96 83.76",
            "November_2024.pdf": "November 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of the ongoing October November December (OND) 2024 rainfall season. Two (2) counties including; Kilifi and Kwale were categorized in alert drought phase, hence need close monitoring. The July 2024 food security assessment and Long Rains Assessment (LRA) indicate that the number of people in need of assistance is projected to rise from 1.0 million in July to 1.8 million by December 2024. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of November 2024. Figure 1. November Drought Phase 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 November 2024 Rainfall Performance In November 2024, rainfall performance varied significantly across Kenyas regions. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), Wajir and Mandera experienced below-normal rainfall (5175 of normal), while Isiolo, Garissa, and Tana River received near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). The Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) saw mixed conditions, with Turkana recording above-normal rainfall (126200 of normal), while Samburu and Marsabit experienced near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). In the Coastal Marginal Cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta), Kilifi and Kwale had above-normal rainfall (126150 of normal), Lamu received near-normal rainfall (76125), and Taita Taveta faced below-normal rainfall (5175). The South Eastern Marginal Agriculture Cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) largely experienced near-normal rainfall (76125), except for Makueni and Kitui, which saw slightly above-normal rainfall (126150). Lastly, in the Agro Pastrol Cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall was above normal (176200) in Baringo and West Pokot, near normal (76125) in Narok and Laikipia, and near to slightly below normal (51125) in Kajiado and Nyeri. Overall, rainfall performance showed both deficits and surpluses across different clusters. 1.1.2 December 2024 Rainfall Outlook The December 2024 rainfall forecast shows varied conditions across Kenyas clusters. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), most areas, including Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, are expected to experience near-average to below- average rainfall, indicating dry conditions, while Tana River is forecasted to have near-average rainfall. In the Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit), Turkana and Figure 2. November Rainfall Performance Marsabit are predicted to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, signaling favorable conditions, whereas Samburu is expected to experience near-average rainfall. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta) is forecasted to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, indicating likely dry conditions across all counties. For the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui), rainfall is predicted to remain near average, suggesting stable conditions. Finally, in the Agro Pastoral cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok are expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall, while Laikipia, Kajiado, and Nyeri are forecasted to have near-average rainfall, reflecting favorable to moderate conditions overall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2024 with that of the previous month of October 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of November was at above normal vegetation greenness and normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September in most counties. Kilifi county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit. While Kwale county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Garissa counties also deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to last month. The month of November 2024 stability in vegetation condition in most Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) and slight deterioration in vegetation condition across few Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of October. Stability in vegetation is due to the impact of good performance OND rains which has regenerated pasture and browse in most counties. Slight deterioration in vegetation can be attributed to poor performance of OND rains in these counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Eighteen Figure 3. December Rainfall forecast (18) ASAL counties including; Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Three counties (3); Garissa, Taita Taveta and Tana River recorded normal vegetation greenness, while two counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of October and November 2024 October 2024 November 2024 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The short rains have positively impacted livestock conditions by improving water access and forage availability, stabilizing livestock body conditions. Overall, forage quality was generally fair to good across the counties during the review period, although some areas experienced Table 2.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Taita Taveta, Tana River Garissa (Fafi, Township, Daadab), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kitui (South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (West), Taita (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir (South, West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, West, North), Lamu (East), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera, Ijara). deterioration. About 73 and 17 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Kilifi and Kwale reported poor conditions. Receipt of the off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally, but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2024 Pasture Browse Kilifi Kwale Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana river Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Samburu Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable, ranging from fair to good (Table 3). This stability was primarily attributed to the availability of quality, palatable forage in adequate quantities within the usual grazing zones near households, combined with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources due to the good recharge of open water structures in the previous season. However, the delayed onset of the October November December(OND) rains in most counties poses a risk to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, November 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana West Pokot 1.3.3. Livestock diseases Various counties have reported livestock disease as follows; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in the southern parts of Garissa, Tana River, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty), Laikipia (Tigithi in Laikipia East Sub County, Salama in Laikipia West Sub County, and Thigithu in Laikipia East Sub County) and West Pokot (Kapchok and Chepareria wards). Increased incidences of helminthiasis and ectoparasites such as ticks were reported in Garissa with the prevalence of abortions being high in Turkana County. Some areas like Balambala, Mwingi West and Kitui West sub counties witnessed high cases of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) throughout the subject month under review. Equally, African Swine Fever cases were confirmed in Kitui Central while worm infestation especially among the small stock was high in Baringo. Regular monitoring and vaccination campaigns shall remain key towards mitigating any disease outbreaks. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Generally the price of cattle was stable and good across most counties which is attributed to the stable livestock body condition occasioned by pasture and water availability. (Table 5). Notably, the prevailing price of cattle was above the respective long-term average in all the counties during the period under review. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Meru Narok,Makueni Taita Taveta West pokot,Nyeri Samburu,Marsabit,Kitui Baringo Wajir Mandera, Nyeri , Kwale Tana River, Kilifi Turkana, Tharaka Nithi 1.3.5 Goat Prices Stability with a tendency to improve in the market price of goats was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Turkana and Wajir counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over November. Unbalanced demand and supply in the market was the major driver of the aforementioned negative trend. Overall, all the counties reported prices that were above the normal price for the period. The good body condition driven by browse availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Kilifi Tana River, Kitui Kajiado, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Turkana Wajir 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Taita Taveta Planted crops were at below knee-high (growth stage) with select few farmers engaged in weeding. In the mixed farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale Majority of the farmers were involved in land preparation and planting. Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops especially maize were at different stages of germination, knee and above Knee height. Legumes had germinated and were in fair condition while maize crops were at a different growth stage: still germinating in most areas but already reaching knee-high in Tigania East for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crops are in fair to good condition supported by enhanced rainfall received in the county during the month under review. Farmers were mainly focused on weeding to support crop growth. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, driven by expectations of the October-November-December (OND) rains, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at leaf stage while others were at germination stage, all performing well across the livelihood zones. Households recorded zero stocks, having depleted all maize stocks held and were thus relying on markets for purchases. Makueni Crops had germinated in most parts of the county and were in fair condition. 20 Spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution was hindering farming activities especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones. Crops had germinated and were below knee high. Farmers were weeding and spraying to control pests but the crops were in good condition. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Maize crop was one and a half feet high while beans had started flowering. Crop conditions ranged from fair in Agro-pastoral areas to good in the mixed farming south. Most farmers were weeding. Normally, beans would be flowering and maize would be three feet tall. Narok A few of the farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were planting with those who planted early engaged in weeding. Laikipia In Laikipia East, crops were at the leafing stage with farmers carrying out the first round of weeding. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were concluding harvesting maize. The projected maize yield for the season is above average due to improved farming practices such as better soil management and the use of quality seeds, as well as favourable weather conditions that supported optimal crop growth. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for about 21 percent of the areas including Narok, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi among others that reported price increase attributable to dwindling household stocks and increased demand as the festive season approaches over the reference period (Table 8). Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Lamu reported prices that were within the usual price range in November. Observed trend over the month under review was due to the combined effect of local production more so in the marginal agriculture and Agro pastoral areas and external supplies including cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Wajir Marsabit Turkana Kilifi Baringo, Isiolo, Nyeri Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Kwale West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Meru Tana River, Turkana, Laikipia Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 78 percent of the counties is currently within the corresponding long-term average distance for the period compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source averages 5.4 kilometres with Mandera and Wajir recording the highest distance of 8.5 kilometres. On the other hand, distance in the semi-arid counties averages 3.3 kilometres with Lamu reporting the highest distance of 5.9 kilometres. Over the month under review, approximately 87 percent of the counties reported an improving trend following the rainfall received during the second and third dekad of November. However, the negative trend witnessed in some counties like Kilifi, West Pokot and Kwale could be attributed to the poor recharge and the fact that provisioned water sources were turbid for household consumption. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Kwale Samburu Turkana Kitui Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Embu Tana River Kajiado, Kilifi Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Laikipia Nyeri Baringo Kilifi Kwale West Pokot Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The current trekking distance to water source from grazing area is stable and increased in 21 percent of the counties hence a significant improvement from the previous month (Table 10). The aforementioned counties that reported a worsening trend included: Kilifi, Mandera, Kwale and West Pokot with poor rainfall amounts, reduced forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources and water infrastructure deficiencies being cited as the major drivers of the observed situation. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties averaged 9 kilometres with Mandera reporting the longest distance of 13.4 kilometres. In the semi-arid counties, the distance averaged 4 kilometres with Lamu reporting the longest distance of 6.8 kilometres. Save for Kwale, Narok and West Pokot counties, the prevailing distance in all the other counties was within the usual seasonal range as a consequence of the recharge that took place compounded by the forage regeneration. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kwale Narok West Pokot Turkana Kilifi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Lamu, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Makueni Narok Mandera Wajir Kilifi Kwale West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Over the reference period under review, all counties reported terms of trade that were above the corresponding long-term average and that represented a similar scenario to the previous month. The observed trend was as a consequence of the relatively low maize prices over time that fairly matched the high prices of goat and therefore the purchasing power remained moderate especially in the pastoral set ups. However, compared to the previous period, deterioration in the terms of trade was noted in roughly 52 percent of the counties while 48 percent of the areas reported stability. The marginal shift in the price of maize across November was the major driver of the observed negative trend in the aforementioned counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Lamu Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Nyeri Tana River Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Kwale West Pokot Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in about 52 percent of the counties as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category (Table 12). The remaining counties reported a stable trend. The worsening trend in the prior mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 39 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was worser compared to the usual situation at such a time of the year and that could be attributed to the limited number of outreach activities delivering essential nutrition services coupled with the high morbidity rates. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Narok West Pokot Baringo Marsabit Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, twenty-one (21) ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while two Counties including Kilifi and Kwale are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, November 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Isiolo, Turkana, Embu, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Samburu Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Marsabit, Wajir, Kajiado, Makueni, Alert Kwale Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex 1 Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th November 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values Drought Category at 27th October at 24th Novemb er 2024 (3-month) Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 93.74 80.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Central 92.21 85.99 North 89.41 73.05 South 93.24 80.94 Ravine 84.32 Mogotio 95.35 86.09 Tiaty 97.56 79.42 MANDERA County 101.53 73.35 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of October at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 108.08 78.45 North 107.51 81.83 Banissa 78.92 61.46 101.33 67.68 South 104.61 74.52 99.36 68.37 TURKANA County 87.61 76.24 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 85.43 66.91 South 94.88 77.79 Loima 95.94 87.86 Central 99.51 83.62 88.11 84.13 North 77.91 67.02 MARSABI County 86.53 62.81 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November which was stable when compared to the previous month of October. Laisamis 87.96 64.18 Moyale 52.62 North Horr 86.14 64.05 104.59 73.41 WAJIR County 85.44 57.03 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in November. However two sub counties Wajir (South and West) recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj 94.25 66.43 North 105.96 71.16 South 73.15 49.67 77.93 45.49 Eldas 94.34 58.79 85.28 62.69 SAMBURU County 91.15 68.73 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 92.05 62.11 North 89.67 72.95 92.62 81.28 GARISSA County 49.91 The county and its two sub counties (Fafi and Dadaab) deteriorated to Normal Vegetation greenness in the month of November. Balambala 92.98 59.34 Township 68.94 45.98 Ijara 51.44 58.76 44.99 Lagdera 94.11 58.51 Dadaab 67.11 45.88 ISIOLO County 99.85 63.38 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 100.94 63.48 South 98.18 63.22 RIVER County 63.95 42.54 The county and all its sub counties declined to Normal vegetation greenness levels throughout the month of November. 78.44 49.78 Galole 37.58 Garsen 55.87 39.49 KAJIADO County 105.68 84.97 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 102.19 87.05 112.58 87.42 North 87.09 89.27 South 93.81 70.79 114.72 94.15 LAIKIPIA County 95.54 76.8 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.62 57.53 North 105.01 81.18 THARAKA NITHI County 81.41 56.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 73.32 Maara 81.81 72.63 Tharaka 77.56 44.63 POKOT County 86.13 81.14 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness as normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kacheliba 79.23 Kapenguria 86.28 82.57 Pokot south 89.75 91.62 Sigor 89.02 77.19 County 96.83 74.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 76.45 79.62 Mbeere north 105.85 70.63 Mbeere south 100.23 Runyenjes 86.82 83.65 KITUI County 55.99 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of November, however Kitui south declined to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central 119.89 79.31 Kitui east 85.33 52.36 Kitui rural 133.74 87.03 Kitui south 75.76 49.06 Kitui west 121.84 79.32 Mwingi central 92.11 56.64 Mwingi north 88.02 56.93 Mwingi west 124.52 83.53 MAKUENI County 108.99 80.06 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable when compared to previous month of October. Kaiti 121.2 101.13 Kibwezi east 83.25 57.81 Kibwezi west 100.04 Kilome 120.73 92.78 Makueni 130.24 94.42 Mbooni 140.27 105.84 County 94.39 73.16 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of November. Buuri 84.88 Central Imenti 84.55 76.62 Igembe central 66.65 Igembe north 105.25 Igembe south 90.87 60.05 North Imenti 92.07 81.82 South Imenti 81.72 81.47 Tigania east 85.53 65.03 Tigania west 100.26 74.09 NYERI County 83.73 81.42 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kieni 87.79 81.61 Mathira 83.94 Mukurweini 77.05 74.28 Nyeri town 78.48 Othaya 73.59 80.09 78.21 KILIFI County 33.58 26.44 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of October. Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Magarini, Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining two sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 29.77 Kaloleni 39.58 32.43 Kilifi north 31.33 33.97 Kilifi south 40.13 35.95 Magarini 34.15 25.67 Malindi 33.93 30.33 Rabai 42.59 35.48 KWALE County 37.92 31.04 The vegetation condition index recorded was moderate vegetation deficit in November which was a decline when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 35.33 26.09 Lunga Lunga 37.96 31.73 Matuga 47.69 Msambweni 47.12 43.97 County 62.88 57.06 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Lamu east 73.88 71.04 Lamu west 56.52 48.98 TAITA TAVETA County 71.11 49.56 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Voi) recorded Normal vegetation greenness which Mwatate 61.89 40.75 Taveta 88.48 64.03 64.42 44.27 Wundanyi 95.08 70.12 is a decline compared with the previous month of October. NAROK County 80.61 76.98 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November which was stable when compared to the last month of October. Emurua Dikirr 70.85 73.95 Kilgoris 66.43 70.22 Narok east 81.68 75.42 Narok north 64.41 65.14 Narok south 93.43 83.45 Narok west 83.76 83.76",
            "December_2024.pdf": "December 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained normal across majority of the ASAL counties. The stable trend was attributed to the light showers experienced in December that aided in sustaining the impact of the good rainfall received in November. Three (3) counties, Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi were in Alert drought phase while the remaining twenty (20) ASAL counties were in Normal drought phase (Figure 1). Four (4) counties including Tana River, Embu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi were classified to be at Normal and on an improving trend, ten (10) counties including Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri at Normal and on a stable trend while six (6) counties including Baringo, Marsabit, Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, West Pokot at Normal and on a worsening trend. The classification was based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual seasonal ranges except for the counties at Alert drought phase. The trend of food insecurity among populations has been on the rise since July 2024. The Current number of food insecure population is approximately 1.8 persons in ASAL counties. The Counties of Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera have the highest proportions of food insecure populations. Despite the improvements from the previous season, levels of acute malnutrition have still remained elevated in some arid counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo (Tiaty) and Turkana. The total caseload for children aged 6-59 months as well as pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of urgent treatment is estimated at 479,498 and 110, 169 respectively. Figure 1. December Drought Phase 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 December 2024 Rainfall Performance Throughout December 2024, rainfall performance across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties displayed significant spatial variation, with notable disparities between clusters. The Pastoral North East (PNE) cluster, encompassing Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River, experienced predominantly below-average rainfall, with large areas receiving less than 50 percent of the long-term mean (LTM), and isolated zones falling below 25 percent. In contrast, the pastoral north west (PNW) cluster, which includes Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit, also faced deficits, with most areas recording amounts below 50 percent of LTM, particularly in Turkana and Marsabit. The coastal marginal agriculture (CMA) cluster, comprising Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta, generally experienced average to above- average rainfall, with coastal regions such as Kilifi and Kwale receiving 101200 percent of the LTM. The south eastern marginal agriculture (SEMA) cluster, which includes Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui, recorded mixed performance, with southern parts receiving slightly above-average rainfall (76125 percent of LTM) while northern areas received below average rainfall. Lastly, the Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster, that consistutes Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri, demonstrated heterogeneous rainfall distribution, with Narok and Kajiado receiving above-average rainfall (101200 percent of LTM), while Baringo and Laikipia experienced deficits, with some areas falling below 50 percent of the LTM. 1.1.2 January 2025 Rainfall Outlook The rainfall forecast for January 2025 across the ASAL counties indicates predominantly dry conditions with significant spatial variation among the clusters. The PNE cluster is expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions, consistent with climatological norms, with little to Figure 2. December Rainfall Performance (source: KMD) no rainfall anticipated. Similarly, the PNW cluster is also forecasted to have predominantly dry conditions under the same climatological patterns. The CMA cluster is forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall, particularly in coastal areas where isolated showers might occur. Sunny and dry conditions are forecasted for the SEMA cluster, with sporadic rainfall possible in some locations.Lastly, the AGP cluster is anticipated to follow a similar pattern of mainly dry conditions with occasional rainfall particularly in the southern and western areas such as Narok and Kajiado. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2024 with that of the previous month of November 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of December was above normal vegetation greenness compared to that of the month of November in most counties, however with a deteriorating trend. Kilifi and Kwale counties maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness. Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Tharaka Nithi counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to November. The month of December 2024 showed huge deterioration in vegetation condition in most Arid Counties. Deterioration in vegetation was due to the impact of poor performance of OND rains which did not have a positive improvement in terms of vegetation regeneration. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Fourteen (14) ASAL counties including; Turkana, Samburu, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Tana River and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Six counties (6); Marsabit, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Mandera and Taita Taveta recorded normal vegetation greenness, while three counties (3); Kilifi, Kwale and Wajir recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties at end of December 2024 is provided in figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Figure 3. January Rainfall forecast (Source: KMD) Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of November and December 2024 Table1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Wajir (West) Moderate vegetation deficit Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Isiolo (North), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, South, Rabai), Wajir (Eldas, South), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Isiolo (South), Kilifi (North, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Mandera (West, South, East, Banissa), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Tarbaj, North, East) November 2024 December 2024 Above normal Vegetation greenness Turkana, Samburu, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Tana River and Nyeri Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Balambala, Township, Ijara, Fafi, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, West, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Mandera (Lafey, North), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu:( East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deterioration being noted across majority of them. About 65 and 43 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Mandera reported the condition as being poor. Forage availability was sustained in December as a consequence of the light showers received coupled with the cumulative effect of the good rainfall received in November. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Table 2.0: Forage Condition, December 2024 Pasture Browse Mandera Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Makueni Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot Laikipia Lamu, Narok Nyeri, Kwale Taita Taveta Tana river Mandera Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Meru Makueni Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Wajir Baringo, Embu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained relatively stable in relation to the previous month of November ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed trend included: forage and water availability in sites adjacent to households across most counties. Additionally, availability of crop residues sufficed in supplementing the livestock feed. Improved provision of livestock health services such as vaccination by different stakeholders equally aided in promoting the stable livestock body condition observed. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, December 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa, Lamu Kitui, Wajir Makueni Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Marsabit, Meru Narok, Nyeri Samburu, Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Kitui Tana River, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Embu, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Samburu Turkana West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Poultry farmers in Tharaka Nithi and Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango subcounty) faced isolated cases of Newcastle disease. Persistent cases of endemic East Coast Fever (ECF) were recorded in Narok. The dominant syndrome reported in Marsabit was Respiratory at 26.9 percent, Gastrointestinal at 20.4 percent, and Abortion at 13.6 percent. Equally, incidents of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) were widespread in Marsabit especially around Butiye, Golbo, KorrNgurunit, Laisamis, North Horr, Sololo, Turbi, HeilluManyatta and Moyale Township and Garissa (Balambala sub county). Foot rot associated with the cold conditions in December was recorded in Embu. Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Kajiado, Meru (Amwathi in Igembe North), Samburu, West Pokot (Chepareria ward), Tana River and southern parts of Garissa. Rabies and goat pox presented the highest prevalence of 50.1 and 42.9 percent and mortality rate of 24 and 14.3 percent respectively in Turkana. An unknown disease-causing paralysis and death in lambs and kids was reported in Masol and Lomut wards while 36,302 cattle were vaccinated against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 78 percent reported an improving trend in the price of cattle in relation to the previous month with only Mandera, Wajir and Tharaka Nithi reporting a negative trend (Table 5). The decline in price in the aforementioned counties was occasioned by distress stress hence over supply driven by the poor performance of the short rains and drop in demand for cattle with a high preference for camels in December. Notably, the improving trend in the other areas was driven by the good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists fetch more. Noteworthy, the recorded prices across all the counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity at the markets due to hoarding and low volumes in some areas, and high demand for cattle meat during the festive season being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Narok West Pokot, Meru Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Mandera and Wajir that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to deteriorating body condition, majority of the counties constituting 91 percent reported a stable to improving trend across December (Table 6). The positive trend in these counties was influenced by the high demand over the festive season and browse availability following the rainfall received hence good body condition. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the usual prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition of goat following the rainfall received that promoted availability of quality palatable browse in majority of the areas. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Tana River Turkana, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Meru Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi, Embu Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Wajir 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Taita Taveta Crops were above knee-high and others at knee high stage in the Mixed Farming: Food Crop Livestock and Horticulture Dairy livelihood zones. Maize crop was at tasselling stage in the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone. Kilifi Early planted maize in parts of the Marginal Mixed zone was at knee- high and in good condition. In addition. cassava crop was in good condition. However, most farms remained bushy as farmers were reluctant to prepare and plant following the forecasted poor rainfall season. Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops were at different stages including germination, knee high to and above Knee high. Kwale The major activities carried out by majority of the farmers were weeding and harvesting of some of the early planted crops. Legumes were at growth stages ranging from tussling to podding, with their condition being poor to fair. Cereal crops were at varying stages of development: knee-high in the lower zones of Tigania East, Tigania West, Igembe North, Igembe Central, and parts of Buuri, while in the upper zones of Tigania East and Tigania West, crops are flowering for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crop conditions were rated as poor to fair, largely due to below-average OND rainfall and with the current rainfall outlook, below-average harvest is expected. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at weeding stage while others were at leaf development stage. The condition of the crops was fair across the livelihood zones having faced water stress during the second week of December apart from Kitui Central, Kitui West and Kitui Rural Sub- counties, that by then continued receiving light showers (10 mm). Makueni Crops were at knee high and flowering stage and in fair condition. Farmers were mainly engaged in weeding activities to support crop growth. However, presence of fall army worm, spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution were among the factors hindering crop production across December. Maize in the mixed farming zone was at tussling stage while in the marginal mixed farming zone it was at the second weeding stage with the condition being fair. Beans, green grams and cowpeas were all at the podding stage across both livelihood zones. The condition of legumes was equally fair. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Crop development was behind schedule. Beans were blooming while maize were 8-10 leaves compared to podding and tussling in that sequence normally. Delayed rainfall onset affected the planting period but generally the condition was good. Narok Rain-fed crops were in good condition and likely to retain their state up to maturity owing to the extremely high soil moisture during the month under review. Nyeri Maize was at knee high and beans were at flowering stage. The main on-farm activity taking place in December was first weeding. Pokot In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, maize crop was above knee high and in fair to poor condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Increase in the price of maize was observed in estimated 61 percent of the counties while the price remained unchanged in about 30 percent of the areas (Table 8). The reported price increase was as a result of the dwindling household stocks hence increased demand (market over reliance) more so over the festive season, limited relief food distribution by humanitarian agencies and increased cost of transportation from the external source areas. However, the prevailing price over December was below the respective long-term average price for majority of the counties and that could be attributed to the previous good harvests and market injections through cross border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Turkana Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Mandera Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Baringo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Tana River, Kwale Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Meru Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, a stable to improving trend in trekking distance for households was noted in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 9). The decrease in trekking distance could be ascribed to improved water availability through recharge of open water sources that were in close proximity to households across December. On the other hand, increase in distance in some counties like Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera and Wajir could be attributed to the high evaporation rate that resulted to drying up of some sources and depletion of harvested water due to early cessation of the short rains. Notably, the longest distance of 9.3 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Wajir respectively among the Arid counties while Lamu and Kitui reported the longest distance of 5.6 and 4.5 kilometres accordingly among the semi-arid counties. Save for Wajir, Kitui, Nyeri and Tana River, the reported trekking distance across all the counties was below the respective long-term average. Lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by recharge of water facilities especially in December. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Wajir Kitui Nyeri Tana River Mandera, Kwale Turkana, Embu Kilifi, Laikipia Narok, Makueni Garissa, Isiolo Samburu, Lamu Baringo, Kajiado, Meru Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Samburu, Kilifi Kwale, Lamu Makueni, Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Turkana, Kitui Laikipia West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Mandera Narok Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance to water source from grazing areas declined in about 48 percent of the counties over the subject reference period under analysis with stability being noted in 22 percent of the areas (Table 10). Decrease in trekking distance in the aforementioned areas could be attributed to forage regeneration and improved water availability following the recharge that took place. However, the negative trend in some counties was as a consequence of movement of livestock from sites near farmlands as crops matured and dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources. The longest return trekking distance of 16.4 kilometres was reported in Marsabit among the arid counties with Lamu equally recording the longest distance of 5.1 kilometres among the semi-arid counties. In reference to the usual trekking distance for the month of December, only Mandera and Kwale reported a distance that was outside the normal range. Recharge of water facilities over December period was the major factor that influenced the lower than usual trekking distance across the month under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Kwale Samburu, Embu Makueni, Narok West- Pokot Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River Wajir, Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado, Kilifi Lamu, Taita Taveta Meru, Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Lamu Turkana Tana River, Kwale, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Samburu Kitui Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Embu Laikipia 1.6 Terms of trade Approximately 57 percent of the counties recorded stability in the terms of trade attributable to minimal shifts in the price of goat relative to the previous month (Table 11). Decline in terms of trade noted in some areas could be ascribed to the increase in price of maize witnessed over the subject month under review. The lowest terms of trade of 39.5 and 97 was reported in Turkana and Nyeri among the arid and semi-arid counties respectively and thus pastoral households in these counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavorable terms of trade implying low purchasing power. Generally, the terms of trade recorded over the month under review were above the long- term average in all the counties. The observed scenario could be attributed to the maize prices that remained moderate and within the seasonal range coupled with the slightly elevated goat prices driven by the good body condition. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Tana River Turkana Kilifi Kitui Narok Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Embu, West Pokot Kwale, Makueni Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation remained stable in roughly 65 percent of the counties (Table 12). Notable factors cited for the observed trend included: good terms of trade that translated to improved access to diverse foods via the market and availability of milk, green vegetables and fruits at household level out of own production. The nutrition situation was however on a worsening trend in select counties such as Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit ascribed to inadequate and unbalanced food intake due to high poverty rates, and high disease prevalence. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the seasonal ranges in approximately 78 percent of the counties with the only exceptions being Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Mandera and Turkana. The positive situation could be attributed to availability of milk, expanded mass screening and medical outreaches. On the contrary, poor feeding and child care practices was driving the negative situation in the prior mentioned counties. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Mandera Turkana Kajiado Tharaka- Nithi Garissa, Marsabit Kitui West Pokot Isiolo, Samburu Tana River Wajir, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Makueni Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Kwale Laikipia Makueni Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Wajir Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Embu Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 20 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while three Counties including Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Tana River, Embu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Marsabit Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, West Pokot Alert Kilifi Mandera, Wajir Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th December 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at November VCI-3 month as at December Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greennes 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 80.31 71.25 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in December. Central 85.99 75.59 North 73.05 66.28 South 80.94 Ravine 84.32 77.22 Mogotio 86.09 79.88 Tiaty 79.42 68.31 Mandera County 73.35 The county and majority of its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Lafey 78.45 North 81.83 54.32 December. Lafey and Mandera North remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 61.46 46.52 67.68 42.69 South 74.52 47.81 68.37 39.55 Turkana County 76.24 72.66 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 66.91 57.61 South 77.79 72.09 Loima 87.86 83.02 Central 83.62 74.92 84.13 84.59 North 67.02 Marsabit County 62.81 48.04 The county declined to normal vegetation greenness in December which is low when compared to previous month of November. Laisamis 64.18 Moyale 52.62 41.89 North Horr 64.05 73.41 48.27 Wajir County 57.03 34.15 The county declined at moderate vegetation deficit in December. However, two sub counties Wajir (North and East) and Tarbaj recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Wajir West recorded the worst at severe vegetation deficit. Tarbaj 66.43 37.97 North 71.16 48.02 South 49.67 33.56 45.49 Eldas 58.79 62.69 38.55 Samburu County 68.73 62.26 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 62.11 55.64 North 72.95 66.42 81.28 75.02 Garissa County 49.91 49.31 The county and its two sub counties (Lagdera and Dadaab) recorded Normal Vegetation greenness in the month of December. Balambala 59.34 54.24 Township 45.98 53.41 Ijara 51.44 54.77 44.99 52.25 Lagdera 58.51 42.34 Dadaab 45.88 39.29 Isiolo County 63.38 38.14 The County declined to normal vegetation greenness levels. While Isiolo North declined to moderate vegetation deficit. North 63.48 31.86 South 63.22 47.74 Tana River County 42.54 51.49 The county and all its sub counties improved to above normal vegetation greenness levels throughout the month of December. Bura recorded normal vegetation greenness. 49.78 Galole 37.58 56.42 Garsen 39.49 50.11 Kajiado County 84.97 76.12 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 87.05 79.55 87.42 North 89.27 82.96 South 70.79 94.15 82.53 Laikipia County 66.08 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 57.53 North 81.18 66.57 69.17 Tharaka Nithi County 56.27 45.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 73.32 56.94 Maara 72.63 62.07 Tharaka 44.63 35.59 West Pokot County 81.14 74.01 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in above normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Kacheliba 79.23 71.94 Kapenguria 82.57 76.57 Pokot south 91.62 83.68 Sigor 77.19 County 74.65 60.33 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.62 65.66 Mbeere north 70.63 56.98 Mbeere south 60.12 Runyenjes 83.65 62.67 Kitui County 55.99 57.28 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Kitui central 79.31 60.73 Kitui east 52.36 57.06 Kitui rural 87.03 61.94 Kitui south 49.06 56.82 Kitui west 79.32 62.27 Mwingi central 56.64 56.99 Mwingi north 56.93 53.76 Mwingi west 83.53 68.94 Makueni County 80.06 66.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in December, which was stable when compared to previous month of November. Kaiti 101.13 82.67 Kibwezi east 57.81 52.19 Kibwezi west Kilome 92.78 70.12 Makueni 94.42 75.63 Mbooni 105.84 80.59 County 73.16 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of December. Buuri 84.88 67.24 Central Imenti 76.62 60.48 Igembe central 66.65 Igembe north 53.07 Igembe south 60.05 55.64 North Imenti 81.82 53.71 South Imenti 81.47 70.92 Tigania east 65.03 54.65 Tigania west 74.09 54.25 Nyeri County 81.42 72.29 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in December. Kieni 81.61 71.28 Mathira 77.39 Mukurweini 74.28 70.13 Nyeri town 65.01 Othaya 80.09 74.14 Kilifi County 26.44 34.57 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of December. Kaloleni, Ganze and Kilifi south, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while Kilifi North, Magarini and Malindi sub counties recorded an improvement to normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 27.52 Kaloleni 32.43 31.03 Kilifi north 33.97 40.67 Kilifi south 35.95 25.89 Magarini 25.67 37.63 Malindi 30.33 40.27 Rabai 35.48 22.89 Kwale County 31.04 The vegetation condition index recorded was moderate vegetation deficit in December which was a stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga sub counties recorded moderate vegetation greenness while Msabweni and Matuga recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 26.09 28.16 Lunga Lunga 31.73 31.45 Matuga 47.69 42.98 Msambweni 43.97 42.22 County 57.06 54.59 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Lamu east 71.04 60.42 Lamu west 48.98 51.22 Taita Taveta County 49.56 44.44 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Voi) remained in Normal vegetation greenness compared with the previous month of November. Mwatate 40.75 37.86 Taveta 64.03 52.51 44.27 41.22 Wundanyi 70.12 Narok County 76.98 79.01 The County remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of December which was stable when compared to the last month of November. Emurua Dikirr 73.95 Kilgoris 70.22 71.36 Narok east 75.42 77.17 Narok north 65.14 69.89 Narok south 83.45 83.59 Narok west 83.76 83.58"
        }
    },
    "Baringo Long Rains": {
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2017.pdf": "A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group July 2017 1 Evelyn Wangari Nganga (National Drought Management Authority) and Peter Mndanyi (World Vision) Executive Summary The county is classified in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping ones are in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2). There was a reduction in the food frequency, nutritive value and dietary diversity as evidenced by the reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet from 90.7 percent in May 2016 to 59.8 percent in May 2017 Food Security Outcome Monitoring. The reduced food consumption gaps was also manifested in the increase in the frequency and severity of consumption-based coping strategies as evidenced by the increase in the coping strategy index from 12.9 in May 2016 to 18.6 in May 2017. The nutritional status had deteriorated as the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased from 18 percent in January 2017 to 25 percent in June 2017. Food availability at household level was below normal across all livelihood zones. Only the households in the mixed farming livelihood zone had stocks available with the rest currently relying on markets for food. Livestock production was also below average as livestock stayed away from homesteads in search of pasture reducing milk availability. Additionally, even the remaining livestock could not fetch competitive prices due to weakened body condition. Access to food was a challenge for most households in the county as prices of maize, a staple in the county maintained an above-average trend attributed to acute unavailability of the commodity due to low supply. Reduced income from livestock production had limited access to food for 88 and 50 percent of the households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zone who rely on it as a main source of income. The countys food insecurity was largely owed to the poor performance of the long rains season, high food commodity prices, the fall army worm infestation and insecurity within the county and along borders with neighbouring counties of Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties and along migratory routes. With most of the county having received 50-75 percent of normal rainfall punctuated with a late onset and poor temporal distribution, crop and livestock production were significantly affected negatively. The crop production was further affected by the fall army worm out-break that will significantly reduce the projected yields. Insecurity along the borders with neighbouring counties prevented access to pasture in these areas. Table of contents 3.1.1. Crop production ........................................................................................................ 6 3.1.2 Livestock production ................................................................................................. 8 3.2.1 Markets .................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................ 13 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ................................................................ 14 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition ................................................................................................ 16 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................ 17 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................. 21 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................... 21 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking.................................................................................................. 22 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 22 5.3.1 Food interventions ................................................................................................... 26 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 27 Pastoral-all species Mixed farming Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County is situated in the North- Western part of the country and borders Uasin Gishu County to the south-west, Kericho and Nakuru Counties to the south, Laikipia County to the east, West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties to the west and Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north. The county spans an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers, 165 square kilometres of which is covered by lakes Bogoria, Kamnarok, 94 and Baringo. It has a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). Administratively, it is divided in to six sub-counties namely: Marigat, East Pokot, Baringo North, Koibatek and Mogotio. It comprises four livelihood zones (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach Objectives The assessments main objective was to analyze the impact of the 2017 long rains on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative impacts of the past three seasons and including other shocks and hazards. Specifically, it sought to determine the impact of the season on food utilization, access and availability by considering the contributing factors to food insecurity and food security outcomes. It also explored the impact of the season on the main food security-related sectors including agriculture, livestock, education and water. Other sectors included health, nutrition, markets and trade from which information would be used to inform sectoral response mechanisms. Finally the assessment report outlined the on- going interventions and also provides interventions that should be put in place immediately, at medium- and long-term. Approach All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires from 270 households in 9 sentinel sites, one-on-one interviews from key informants, transect drive and observation. Secondary data on livestock and food commodity prices, nutrition data from SMART-survey was also corroborated and vegetation condition. The assessment was conducted from 10th July 2017 to 14th July 2017 which involved the technical county steering group members. The data was analyzed at both livelihood zone and sub-county level and a sectoral county report was generated before endorsement and validation by the county steering group. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late in the third dekad of March compared to the first dekad normally. Most parts of the county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral and upper parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone received below-normal rainfall of between 50-75 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, the lower part of the mixed farming livelihood zone around Eldama Ravine and some parts of Mogotio received between 75-90 percent of normal rainfall. The spatial distribution was fairly even. However, the temporal distribution was poor as rainy days were punctuated by dry spells across the season. The cessation was in the second dekad of June although off-season showers being experienced in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border of the county with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Fall army worm infestation A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and is likely to significantly reduce the maize production since 12,000 hectares were affected. Given that the long rains season is the most relied upon for crop production accounting for over 80 percent of total annual production, the deficit will result in significant food consumption gaps. 2.3 Poor terms of trade Livestock prices were below-average amid high food commodity prices. Households purchasing power had therefore been eroded particularly because most households were currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral, pastoral-all species and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food availability in Baringo County takes into account crop production in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro-pastoral livelihood zones and livestock production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. It considers food stocks available at both market and household levels in crop production while in livestock production, livestock body condition, forage and milk availability are considered. 3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The long rains season is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage for maize and beans reduced by 13.2 and 12.8 percent of their long-term average while that of finger millet increased by 22.5 percent as shown in table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because of the delayed onset. There was a dry spell that followed after the onset of the rains that made the first-planted seeds to dry up. Most farmers did not replant after that. The acreage of finger millet increased because the farmers were provided with farm inputs by the national government and the county government conducted enhanced campaigns for drought-tolerant crops. Maize and beans projected production reduced by 46.2 and 17.1 percent of their long-term averages. Maize production reduced due to delayed and subdued rains coupled with a fall army worm infestation. Beans production reduced due to the fact that most beans aborted their flowers during the dry period between 20th May and 18th June when beans were between the flowering and podding stages. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during rains season (Ha) 2017Long rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 35,432 40,799 430,388 800,650 2. Beans 20,681 23,729 221,000 266,458 3. Finger millet 5,816 4,747 35,890 37,716 Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, beans, tomatoes and water melons reduced by 32.5, 12.8, 27.4 and 20.8 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the reduction included low water volumes in the major rivers in the county including Perkerra, Molo, Endao and Waseges due to low recharge from the rains. Additionally, in Baringo North, the acreage under irrigated maize was reduced as most farmers opted for cowpea and banana production due to higher returns particularly in Kiboi and Barwesa irrigation schemes. Other reasons included destruction of the irrigation infrastructure in Cheraik and Chepness irrigation schemes in Eldama Ravine sub-county. The reduced acreage resulted in the decreased of all four crops by 58.1, 52.2, 24.6 and 62.2 percent of their normal production respectively. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Area planted during the 2017 Long rains season (ha) Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2017 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2017 Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 24,179 57,739 Beans 1,215 2,540 Tomatoes Water melons 1,310 3,470 Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks are above-average except for maize (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 54 percent of their LTA, while rice, millet and sorghum stocks were 12.8, 67 and 18.7 percent above their LTAs respectively. There had been a deficit in maize production from previous seasons and imports, so the other cereals were increased in a bid to respond to the deficit. Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers Total Maize Current 80,190 28,540 113,955 158,003 43,359 210,894 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Current 2,190 2,190 1,942 1,942 Millet Current 5,033 3,008 Sorghum Current Farmers held only half (50.7) of their normal maize stocks as most sold their produce to purchase farm inputs. Moreover, over 85 percent of the stocks held were in the mixed farming livelihood while households in the rest of the livelihood zones were relying on markets. However, stocks of millet and sorghum were 81 and 32 percent respectively above their LTAs as they had not been released to the markets since they were acting as food reserves given that maize stocks had declined. Households did not also have any rice stocks since the crop was mainly grown for seed. Traders held 34 percent lower-than-normal stocks of maize but 12.8, four and 19 percent above-average stocks of rice, millet and sorghum respectively. Maize was sourced from outside the county so when the prices increased, traders reduced their stocks. Traders also increased stocks of rice to provide an alternative to maize which was in limited supply. They also stocked up more sorghum because households were resorting to milling the commodity to supplement maize fluor and was also the reason why millers did not have it in stock since it was being purchased directly from them. Millet stocks were normal for this time of the year. 3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock types found in the county include cattle, camel, goats, sheep, honey bees and poultry. The long rains season is significant for livestock production because it rejuvenates forage and recharges water sources. In-migration of livestock from dry-season grazing areas is usually contingent on the performance of the long rains and normally coincides with calving that increases milk availability at household level. Table 4 below illustrates the significance of livestock production to food and income in the county. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution to Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species Forage condition Forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones in the county. The pasture condition was below normal due to poor rejuvenation. Although the rains received may have been sufficient to enable rejuvenation, the pastures had been depleted due to three successive failed seasons, making it difficult to reverse the negative impacts. The available pasture is already depleted in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and is projected to be depleted by August across the rest of the zones while normally it would last at least until the onset of the short rains season. Browse condition was also below normal for this time of the year (Table 5). It is expected to be depleted by the end of July in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones and by mid-August in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone. The main factors limiting access to pasture include insecurity and cattle rustling along the borders of the county with Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet counties and also along the border of Tiaty sub-county with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties. Table 5: Forage condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition (Months) Factors limiting access Condition (Months) Factors limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming month1 month August) 5 months (December) 1 month August) 5 months (December) Irrigated cropping months (end of August) 6 months (January) 1 month August) 5 months (December) pastoral 3 weeks (end of July) 4 months (November) Limited water 2 weeks (end of July) 2 months (September) Browse scarcity all species Depleted Good 3 months (October) Insecurity, pasture scarcity 2 weeks (end of July) 2 months (September) Browse scarcity Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The body condition of all livestock types ranged mostly between fair and good. However, in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone, it was poor as pasture had been completely depleted lengthening the distances to grazing areas. The trend in body condition for cattle was likely to further deteriorate particularly in the pastoral livelihood zone where pasture was already depleted. Although there are off-season rains in the zone, they are unlikely to rejuvenate pasture because the level of depletion of was quite high. However, the goats body condition across all livelihood zones was likely to remain stable as browse was still available and will be further improved by the off-season rains. Birth rate The birth rates were slightly below-normal for all livestock species across all livelihood zones currently, at about 1.2 compared to the normal 3. The reduction could be associated with the negative impacts of three consecutive failed seasons which have reduced forage and water availability. Additionally, the pastoral-all species livelihood zone reported abortions due to the increased stress of accessing pasture that could also have contributed to the reduction. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 6). Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were the main reasons for the reduction. Table 6: Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species 1.5-6 Milk production and consumption Below normal forage availability and cattle migrations had resulted in lower-than-normal milk production and consequently consumption (Table 7). There was virtually no milk production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. However, they were importing milk from the mixed farming livelihood zone. The reduction had occasioned a deficit in milk supply and a hike in its prices across all livelihood zones. Table 7: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 0.5-1 Pastoral-all species Water for Livestock The main sources of water currently in use include boreholes, rivers Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani and Lakes Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and 94. The long rains recharged most of the water sources only to 30-50 percent due to lower-than- normal amounts. Distances to water sources have therefore increased (Table 8) with the available water projected to last up to the end of July in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones, up to the end of August in the irrigated farming zone and up to September in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 8: Water for livestock Livelihood Sources Return average distances (km) Expected duration to last (months) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1-3.5 1-1.5 3 months Throughout Twice daily Twice daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-3.5 1-1.5 months Throughout Twice daily Twice daily pastoral water pans, boreholes Streams, water pans, boreholes 1month 3 months 2 days 2 days all species pans, bore-holes pans, bore-holes weeks except in Boreholes 2 months 2 days 2 days Migration Migration had been witnessed both within the county and out-migration to other counties in search of pasture while others were moved in fear of insecurity which was not normal for this time of the year. Table 9 below shows the current migratory routes in the county. Table 9: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Baringo central Intra-migration from lowlands to mid lowlands Cattle in search of pastures Baringo south BSouth Marigat Mukutani and along the showers of L. Baringo and lake Bogoria Mukutani to other wards and Mogotio Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Baringo north (a) Sibilo and Yatya to Kalabata in Bartabwa for pastures (b) Barwessa towards Kerio River areas for pastures (c) Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Location due to insecurity (d) Saimo soi Kerio valley area (e) There was no inward migration Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Mogotio (i) Kamar, Molos, Radat and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. (ii) Sagasagik, Kiptoim and Rosoga to Kiplombe, Lembus and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Subcounty forests. Cattle in search of pastures Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons (iii) Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei towards Laikipia, Mochongoi, Banita and Menengai Crater in Nakuru County. Tiaty To Arabal, Mukutani and Nadome in Turkana. -RugusKomolion-Kiserian-Mukutani -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome -Churo-Laikipia and Sambu -From Orus and Amaya have are still in Arabal and Mukutani. - Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia -Kapau, Napur, Chepelow and Chamatasi to Pkatil Hills, Chesawach and Kwol. Cattle, sheep and goats in search of pastures Koibatek -Sagat,Chepnes, Muserechi, Mandina, Esageri to Kiplombe forests. -Nakuru County to the sub-county forests With the on-going off-season rains in the county, it is expected that the migrated livestock will come back home and increase milk production at household level due to rejuvenated pasture. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were reported livestock diseases in the county as indicated in Table 10 below. However, disease incidences were within the normal ranges. The mortality rate for sheep and goats was four percent while that of cattle was five percent. The mortalities were attributed to drought and diseases due to weakened livestock body condition. Table 10: Livestock diseases Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Contagious Caprine Pleuro- Pneumonia (CCPP) Saimo Soi, Baringo north Goats 170 shoats Kamurio, Tiaty Mukutani, Marigat, Ilchamus Nyimbei, Loboi, Baringo south Oterit, Emining, Kimose, Radat Mogotio Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Marigat, mukutani, salabani Baringo south Sheepgoats 73 shoats Tirioko, Katuwit, Koloa Tiaty Saimo soi Baringo north Salawa, Kaptara Baringo central East Coast Fever Saimo soi Baringo north Cattle 35 cattle Mochongoi, Mukutani Baringo south Amaya, Tiaty Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, Tiaty Goats 187 shoats Arabal, Mochongoi Baringo south Red Water Tirioko, Kamurio, Pkaruru Tiaty Cattle 2 cattle Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize price Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Mogotio, Sogon, Mogotio Cattle Tirioko and Ribko and Kerio Valley, Tiaty Tulwongoi, Lembus Central location,Kiplombe,Lebolos,Naitili,Kirobon, Parts of Mumberes Eldama ravine Ilchamus, Mochongoi Baringo south New Castle Disease Marigat, Baringo south Poultry 1,836 chicken Saimo soi, Kabartonjo Baringo north Salawa, Kabarnet Baringo central Poor body condition in cattle, lower-than-normal birth rates and TLUs have resulted in low milk availability and lower-than-normal consumption at household level for approximately 20 and 21 percent of the population in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones who rely on it for food particularly for children aged below five years. 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets functionality particularly for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones whose main source of food currently is markets. Therefore food commodity prices, income sources and terms of trade (a proxy indicator for determining purchasing power) are discussed in this section. Others include existence of food consumption gaps if any and the mechanisms employed to bridge them. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets for livestock include Marigat, Barwesa, Amaya, Kollowa, Nginyang, Kinyach, Tangulbei and Amaya. Others include Loruk and Kabel. The main ones for crops include Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang, Amaya, Kabartonjo, Barwesa, Kipsamaran and Marigat. Others include Kabel Mochongoi, Mogotio, Emining, Maji Moto and Cheberen. Most markets were operational except Loruk and Kinyach due to fear of insecurity. Lower-than- average supplies were also evident in Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang and Amaya due to the same reasons and the number of buyers was fewer compared to normal. Maize prices Maize prices were 67 and 107.7 percent higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) and the price recorded in June last year. The high prices were occassioned by low supplies. Prices were highest in the pastoral- all species livelihood zone and least in the mixed farming livelihood zone. Maize prices are likely to remain relatively stable although higher-than-normal through to September when some harvests will be realized. Marginal decreases in prices will occur after that when harvests reach the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat Prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade markets coupled with imports from neighbouring counties who will also have harvested the crop. Goat prices The average goat prices were 44 and 41 percent lower than the price recorded at a similar time last year and the 2012-2016 LTA respectively (Figure 4). Browse conditions and availability were below normal thereby increasing stress on goats as they trekked longer distances to access food. The prices were highest and lowest in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. They were expected to increase slightly through to September as there were currently off-season rains that were being experienced in the county that would renew browse and improve the goats body conditions. However, they will maintain a below-average trend. 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (TOT) were 73 and 65 percent below last years price at a similar period and the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 5). The implication of the reduction was that households could currently purchase lower quantities of maize compared to last year and at normal times with the proceeds from the sale of a goat. The reduction was occasioned by low goat prices against high maize prices. The highest and lowest TOT was reported in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. A slight improvement is expected in the TOT through to September as goat prices are expected to increase against stable maize prices. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and food-crop production. Income from livestock production had significantly reduced and a majority of households (88 ) in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and half of those in the agro-pastoral one have been considerably affected. The reduction in income has occurred at a time when they are wholly dependent on markets for food and has therefore compromised access to food in these zones. Likewise, in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones (where 60 and 35 percent respectively of the households rely on food-crop production for income, the reduced production had consequently resulted in reduced income. As a coping mechanism, households opted for other income-generating activities such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Water availability The three major water sources currently in use in the county include boreholes, water pans and springs across all livelihood zones (Table 11). Although they are the normal sources for this time of the year, the operational sources are less because of below-normal recharge. The long rains season recharged the water sources up to between 30 to 50 percent across all livelihood zones. Other sources normally in use include streams, rivers and shallow wells. There was also reduced flow in the major rivers such as Perkerra, Kerio, Amaya, Kiserian, Endao, Molo and Nginyang which had resulted in reduction in irrigated crop production. The main reasons behind the non-operational water sources included poor recharge rates from the rains, high evaporation rates and wear and tear due to over-use emanating from high demand from both humans and livestock. Other reasons were more of a perennial nature such as failure to pay electricityfuel bills so supply of water was cut off and poor management of water facilities. Table 11: Water availability Ward Livelihoo d zone Water Source (Three major sources No. of Normal No. of Current l Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duratio n that water last in months of full Capacity Recharge d by the Rains Locality of operational Water Sources Pastoral holes Months months Permanent source Tiringongwoni n BH, Kirim Sosionde BH Water 1 1 3 4 Months Kirim, Kasiela, Endao Springs 4 - 9 Months Months Agro - Pastoral holes Months months Permanent source Water 1 1 3 4 Months Springs 1 1 months Mixed Farming holes Months months Permanent source Springs 2 2 3 4 Months Rivers 2 2 3 4 Months Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 30 -40 Shallow wells 3months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamp Months Figure 6: Food consumption score May, 2016 May, 2017 Borderline Acceptable Figure 7: Coping strategies index Water access and utilization The below-optimal recharge of water sources had resulted in increased distances to water sources as some had dried up, others had broken down while some had poor quality of water. Insecurity also posed a challenge in access to water along borders of the county and Turkana County, and along borders of Tiaty (East Pokot sub-county) with Baringo NorthBaringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties. The consumption of water at household level consequently reduced as the waiting time at water sources increased due to high concentration of people and low discharge at water points (Table 12). Table 12: Water access and utilization 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a reduction in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period illustrated reduction proportion of households acceptable consumption score category (Figure Approximately percent of households acceptable consumption in May 2017 compared to 90.7 in May 2016. The implication was that there had been a reduction in the number of households who were consuming at least a staple and vegetables daily, complemented by frequent consumption of pulses and oil at least four times a week. 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index (CSI) for May 2017 was 18.6 compared with 12.9 at a similar time last year implying that more severe coping mechanisms were being employed more frequently (FSOM, 2017). deterioration pointed significant Livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Water Source (Ksh. 20litres) Waiting Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Mixed farming 0.5 2.5 1.5 3.5 2 5 3 5 2 - 4 5 - 7 20 - 25 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 - 25 20 - 25 consumption gaps as even the most severe coping strategies were the ones being employed most frequently (restriction of food consumption by adults to allow more for children). The least-employed consumption-based coping mechanism was the reduction of the number of meals. Additionally, approximately 45.2 and 24.6 percent of households were employing stressed and crisis livelihood-based coping strategies respectively (Figure 7). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June was 66.7 percent above the 2012-2016 LTA and more than double compared to similar last year. The implication was a deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years owed to the reduced food intake, dietary diversity and nutritive value as recorded in the food consumption score. Other reasons include poor child-care practices as only 35.5 percent of children were exclusively breast-fed. Morbidity Patterns Acute respiratory tract infections, diarhoea and malaria were the most prevalent diseases among children aged below five years and the general population across all livelihood zones. No.of cases (Malaria) No. of Cases (Diarrhoea) Malaria 2017 Malaria 2016 Diarrhoea 2017 Diarrhoea 2016 Figure 8: Morbidity patterns There was a decrease in malaria, upper respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea among children aged below five years and the general population. Malaria cases decreased due to the mass distribution of mosquito nets that had been carried out and was still on-going. However, the others decreased because there was less reporting of the diseases in the facilities since there was a nurses strike and some facilities had been closed due to insecurity particularly in East Pokot sub-county. Immunization and Vitamin A coverage The coverage of the fully immunized child (Table 13), vitamin A coverage, OPV 1, OPV 3 and measles decreased in May 2017 compared to a similar time last year due to interruption of health services delivery owed to the nurses strike and closure of facilities due to insecurity in East Pokot sub-county. Distances to health facilities also increased due to the closure of these facilities. Considering that the distances to water sources had also increased, the work- load on women charged with looking for food and water coupled with child care increased. Women therefore tended to prioritize these tasks as opposed to vaccination and immunization, particularly also because they had to walk further than normal to access these services. Table 13: Immunization coverage Percentage of fully immunized children in the County Source DHIS MOH 710 Vaccines and Immunizations Percentage children immunized against the mentioned diseases in the county Source: Nutrition survey January to June 2017 1. OPV 1 59.1 2. OPV 3 53.1 3. Measles 59.3 January to June 2016 66.86 1. OPV 1 75.1 2. OPV 3 62.2 3. Measles 69.1 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Approximately only 40-50 percent of households use protected water sources while only 3-5 percent treat water before consumption who were concentrated in urban areas and some parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone. The latrine coverage was seven, 16, 32 and 45 percent in the pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. With latrine coverage being below the recommended level and approximately half of households obtaining water from unprotected water sources, diarrhoeal diseases were reported to have ranked high in the morbidity trends in the county. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Feb 2017 Long rains assessment, July 2017 Maize stocks held by households () (mixed farming) 69 (Long rains assessment, July 2016) Livestock condition Fair to good Poor for cattle, Fair to good for the Water consumption (litres per person per day) Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral:10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Price of maize (Ksh. per Mid-upper circumference (MUAC) Terms of trade (number kilograms purchased proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index 12.9 (May 2016) 18.6 (May 2017) Food consumption score (percent) (May 2016) Poor 1.3 Borderline 8 Acceptable 90.7 (May 2017) Poor 14 Borderline 26.2 Acceptable 59.8 3.5 Education Access Enrolments in primary and secondary schools remained constant, with a 0.3 percent increase in primary, and 0.5 increase in secondary between Term I and Term II. There was a slight (1.5) increase in ECD over the same period. (Table 15). Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term I 2017 Term II 2017 (includes new students registered and drop-outs since Term I 2017) Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total Primary Secondary Participation Participation in the county was above 85 percent for most schools (Table 16). 40 Schools, affecting over 52, 360 learners (25, 626 Female) were temporarily closed due to insecurity in Kapedo along the boundary between Baringo and Turkana counties, borders of Tiaty with Baringo North, Baringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties, but had later been re-opened. 12 schools in Eldume, Sandai, Kimorok, Kapndasum and Arabal were hosting pupils who had ran away from the conflict areas. Attendance had remained relatively stable due to the presence of the school meals program in the county. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2016 Term I 2017 Term II 2017 Indicator November 2016 January 2017 February March 2017 May 2017 June 2017 School attendanc Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Primary Secondar Attendance for ECD and secondary remained stable between Term III 2016, Term I 2017 and Term II 2017, while primary attendance had a drop in attendance from Term III 2016 to Term I 2017 as shown in the graph below. Figure 9: School attendance Retention The drop-out rates remained relatively stable in the county, however, the dropout rate for females in ECD and Primary doubled in each case. In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3 at end of Term III 2016 to 6, while in primary the rate increased from 2 to 4 over the same period. For males, the rate stayed the same, 5, for primary, and decreased from 8 to 7 for ECD as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, the schools available were far away and households did not find any value in schooling so did not insist on children going to school. In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurityviolence, family labour responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. Finally for secondary schools, students dropped out due to early marriages, pregnancies, lack of school fees and family labour responsibilities. Generally girls dropped out due to pregnancies and early marriages while boys did, due to engagement in boda boda business which ensured quick cash. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term III 2016 End of Term I 2017 Students dropped out from school Boys Girls Boys Girls 1,998 1,387 1,901 1,534 Primary 3,543 2,828 3,448 2,649 Secondary School meals program The number of both boys and girls receiving school feeding was 104,075 through one of three types of school meals programme in the county (Figure 18). The programme has enhanced participation due to lack of food at home. Nevertheless, pupils at times missed meals in cases of insecurity particularly in Baringo North and East Pokot, as well as when there is insufficient water to cook food or there were delays in the food pipeline from the donors. 34,523 children are reported as missing meals in Baringo schools for these reasons. Table 18: School meals programme Inter-sector links The ministry of health regularly carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. The national government through the ministry of interior was holding peace-building campaigns in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Assumptions The October to December short rains season will be below-normal. Maize commodity prices will decline marginally through to September and are also likely to maintain an above-average trend. Rangeland conditions are likely to improve slightly through to September due to the on- going off-season rains in most parts of the county. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as most areas spot depleted rangelands due to poor rejuvenation from the past two seasons. Livestock prices are likely to increase slightly through to September owing to increased availability of forage rejuvenated from the off-season rains. However, they are likely to maintain a below-average trend due to lower-than-normal body condition. Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for July, August and September Rangeland resources are expected to improve slightly through to September owed largely to the on-going off-season rains. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as rejuvenation is projected to be lower-than optimal due to below-normal performance of the rains. However, livestock production might realize marginal improvements due to below- normal tropical livestock units attributed to mortalities during the last season. Additionally, most livestock are likely to continue migrating out of the county fuelling conflicts along Name of county No. of schools school feeding Total number of beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Mogotio 6,853 6,837 2,652 2,460 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 3,020 2,789 5,315 4,876 Pokot 9,006 7,727 1,292 Marigat 10,031 9,572 3,446 2,645 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 9,167 8,810 7,010 7,021 5,315 4,876 Koibatek 2,513 2,516 Subtotal 29,071 28,008 9,006 7,727 15,621 14,642 18,362 16,161 76,245 81,913 Grand total (boys girls) 57,079 16,733 30,263 34,523 104,075 migratory routes and increasing the countys livestock disease burden. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average. As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps related to access to market purchases. They are therefore likely to increase the number of consumption-based coping mechanisms and employ them more frequently in a bid to bridge this gap. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. As the access to food decreases, the nutritional status especially for children is likely to worsen. Subsequently, poor households in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) 4.3 Food security outcomes for October, November and December The onset of the short rains season is projected to be in October and will result in some rejuvenation of forage and recharge of water sources. However, the since the season is forecast to perform below-average in cumulative amounts, it is unlikely that these positive impacts will be long-lived since the county will still be recovering from the past two poor seasons. Therefore, although livestock production may improve as some livestock migrate back increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes, these are likely to occur at a small scale. The terms of trade are likely to improve marginally although they may remain below-average as commodity prices will remain at an all-time high due to reduced availability against lower- than-normal livestock prices. Coping mechanisms will likely increase in frequency and severity and food consumption gaps will therefore still be evident for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who will continue relying on markets for food purchases. The nutritional status of children will continue to deteriorate. Poor households in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone will therefore remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For households in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, harvests will have been realized although at lower-than-normal levels. Stocks will be depleted necessitating reliance on markets earlier than normal. With food commodity prices projected to be above-average, poor households in these zones are unlikely to attain minimum dietary requirements and are therefore likely to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers this season include poor rainfall performance, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 50-75 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which as characterized by poor temporal distribution and a late onset. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture had increased and livestock had migrated earlier-than-normal reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than-normal livestock prices significantly reducing pastoralists terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households vulnerability as this is the main season for crop production in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the poor performance of the rainy season. There had been a significant reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to reduced dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. The reduction in food consumption had manifested in an increase in the frequency and severity of coping strategies being employed. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years had also been recorded and could largely be attributed to the reduced food consumption coupled with poor child care practices. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county security rank (1-6) Main food security threat (if any) East Pokot Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo North Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Agriculture Sector Immediate on going interventions counties Purchase of chemicals and equipment for the control of fall army worm counties 20,000HH State department of Agriculture and Baringo County Government (BCG) -Department of Agriculture Salvage damaged July - County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Horticulture development project( provision of green houses, drip kits and assorted fruit tree seedlings counties 12,000 HH Department of Agriculture , livestock and Fisheries- BCG Increased income generation tion of wealthy creation through value addition Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Eldama Ravine Provision of coffee and macadamia seedlings Kabarnet, Kapropita, Ewalel Chapchap, Sacho, Tenges, Mogotio, Koibatek, Mochongo 3500 HH Department of Agriculture , livestock and Fisheries- BCG Income generation wealthy creation through value addition Livestock Sector Immediate on going interventions Baringo Disease control(vaccinati against Black-quarter Koibatek Baringo south 5,120 cattle 1000 cattle MOALF, Reduced incidences livestock diseases leading to improved livestock condition Baringo Feeds distribution (hay, drought pelletsmeal) Molasses Mineral Blocks 20,000 Livestock MOALF, Increase chances of livestock survival during drought period Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Supply and distribution of beehives counties 847 hives promote County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security counties Supply and distribution of chicks counties 10,000 to 50 groups promote tion and ensure gender equity counties Pasture establishment and seed bulking plots Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty RPLRP Promote livestock feeds availabilit 2016- Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate interventions All Sub Counties Vitamin A Supplementation and Zinc Supplementation All health facilities, selected 193,000 MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK Afya uzazi, County department of health Improved immunity Selected health facilities all over county Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and Improved immunity 16.6M All Sub Counties Interventions (EBF and timely introduction of complementary foods) All health facilities communit y units County department of health supported by Afya Uzazi Improved immunity 780,000 Routi All Sub Counties Iron folate supplementation among pregnant women All health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Improved immunity All Sub Counties Deworming All health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Afya Uzazi Improved immunity 600,000 Routi Pokot Blanket supplementary feeding All health facilities outreach sites County department of health supported by WFP,WVK Improved immunity 21,510,31 July- County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security All Sub Counties Outreaches and mass screening 49 site County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Improved health 40,000,00 going Mogotio, Eldamara Mass net distribution Mogotio, Eldamarav County Government, National malaria control programme. Decreased morbidity due to malaria 18,000,00 going Water Sector Immediate interventions counties Water trucking Institution Institutions BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Reduced distances accessing water. going counties Borehole rehabilitation Communit 200HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increase in access to safe water going counties Capacity building on water management County 2 Sub counties RCS, WV, UNCEF Increased knowledge on safe water. going Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Construction of new water projects counties 1840 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Reduced distances accessing water. counties Rehabilitation, drilling and equipping of boreholes counties 5120 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increase in access to safe water counties Capacity building on water management counties 2130 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increased knowledge on safe water. Education Sector County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Immediate interventions B. North Provision of food items (HGSMP,CSMP, EHGMP) Sibilo Pri, Kapluk Pri, Kipcherere Pri, Bartabwa Pri, Akoreyan Pri, Atiar Pri GOK,CG Parents, WVK, NGOs, KRS Increase enrolment, transition rate and retention Central Planting of mangoes, groundnuts, pawpaw green grams, cowpeas for income in schools Salawa Pri, Kaptara Pri, Chesongo Pri, Kapkelelwa Ochii Pri GOK, CG, partners To earn income to purchase food in times of scarcity Marigat HGSMP, Mukutani Pri, Arabal Pri, Kapndasum Ngelecha Pri, Noosuguro pri, Kiserian Pri, Kailer Pri, Sandai Pri, Loboi Pri, Kapkuikui Pri, Ngambo Pri, Barsemoi Pri, Salabani Pri, Perkerra Pri, Loitip Pri, Eldume Pri, Endao Pri GOK,MOE,WFP,KRS, WVK,UNICEF Increase access to education, improve health status and 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-county security rank (1-6 Main food security threat (if any) East Pokot Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo North Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame Agriculture Sector Immediate recommended Interventions counties Capacity building of staff on fall army worm control and provision of chemicals counties 100,000 households Department of Agriculture stakeholders Million Staff immediat Medium and Long Term recommended interventions Livestock Sector counties Distribution of hay and food supplements to affected livestock counties 41,500 HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,2017 counties Disease control(vaccina tions against FMD,CCPP, Black quarter counties Countywide BCG, National government Development partners and Dec, 2017 counties Emergency Livestock off- take, (commercial counties 1,500HH BCG(MOALF) ,Nat. Govt. Dec, 2017 county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame and slaughter) Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate recommended interventions Mass screening Hard-to-reach areas 80 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 14,000,00 2,000,000 June Oct Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat Mogotio Integrated medical outreaches Hard-to-reach areas 40 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 16,000,00 3,000,000 June Oct counties Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs Household getting water from dams 1200 hH County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, 6,000,000 1,000,000 June Oct Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions Selected health facilities (30) all over the county Implement IMAM surge counties 30 health facilities County department of health services, , WVK 50,000,00 29,000,00 2017101 Selected Implement counties 30 health facilities County department of health services, BBC media action, WVK, Afya uzazi 7,000,000 1,500,000 2017101 county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame counties Purchase and distribute fridge to new health facilities for preservation of vaccines Hard to reach areas 25 Health facilities County department of health services,, WVK, afya Uzazi 5250,000 500,000 2017101 Water Sector Immediate interventions counties Provision of fuelelectricity subsidy Community 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units and stock piling of fast- moving spares 20 community water supplies Community 2150HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months counties Roof -water harvesting structures Institutions Communities 30 Inst. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions counties Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across all livelihoods 2300HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs counties Construction Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies Across all livelihoods 3800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 5 yrs counties Construction of 4 dams,18 water pans and 18 farm ponds for domestic and irrigation water use Across all livelihoods 6500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1100M 1 -5Yrs Education Sector Immediate interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame Baringo North HSGMP,EHS Baringo North Jul-Dec Mogotio HGSMP Mogotio Jul-Dec pokot Purchase of beehives,camel ,goats East Pokot PO,UNICEF Jul-Dec Marigat Construction of temporary boarding facilities to house IDPs Eldume,Sanda i,Kimorok,Ka pndasum,Ara 2000IDPs due to insecurity PO,UNICEF,F Jul-Dec Central Construction of a dam in school Kaptara pri,Chesongo, Salawa,Kapke lelwa,Mogor GOK,BCG,FB Jul-Dec",
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group August, 2018 1 Fredrick Owino (State Department for Development of ASALs); Charles Chebarwett (World Vision Kenya). INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 4 County Background..................................................................................................... 4 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 4 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY .............. 5 Rainfall Performance................................................................................................... 5 InsecurityConflict ....................................................................................................... 6 Other Shocks and Hazards .......................................................................................... 6 Availability .................................................................................................................. 6 Access........................................................................................................................ 11 Utilization .................................................................................................................. 15 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ................................................................... 17 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES .......................................................................................... 18 Education ................................................................................................................... 18 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ................................................................................ 19 Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 19 Food Security Outlook for September to November, 2018 ...................................... 19 Food Security Outlook for December to February, 2019.......................................... 19 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS ................................................................ 20 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 20 Ongoing Interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Recommended Interventions ..................................................................................... 23 Food security assessment is a bi-annual assessment conducted by a multi-agency and multi sector representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) drawn from all the key government sectors and various non-state actors. The 2018 long rains food security assessment which covered all the 23 Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) counties of Kenya was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018. In Baringo county, the assessment covered the four main livelihood zones namely Mixed farming, Pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The overall objective was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was early in the first dekad of March. The cumulative amounts received during the season amounted to 931mm which were above 350 percent of normal long rains. Spatial distribution was even and good temporal distribution characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. There was a general increase in acreage planted for crops both for the rain-fed agriculture and also irrigated agriculture due to massive campaigns by the county government to enhance food security and also the shamba system which saw more forest land opened up for cultivation. Projected production is also expected to be above the long term average. The current household maize stocks stands at 150 percent of the long term average with most of it held by farmers in Eldama Ravine due to carry over from the previous season. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species across the county due adequate forage and water. Return trekking distances have reduced and range between three to four kilometres in the agro-pastoral zones and up to six kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production and consumption at household level have slightly improved especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones where four to six litres are produced per household. Markets operations are normal in most markets except for Barwessa ward where markets are closed due to quarantine. Livestock prices are above the long term average due to good body condition while food commodity prices have fallen below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 71 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat compared to 31 kilograms same period last year. There was improvement in the food consumption score with 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption score. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the proportion of households within the borderline food consumption group is 23 percent and 32 percent in pastoral livelihood zone. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18 percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and similar proportion relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. Nutritional status also showed an improvement with GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average standing at seven percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 17 percent. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition stands at 13 percent. The county is thus classified as Minimal or None (IPC Phase 1) across all livelihood zones except pastoral livelihood zone which is stressed (IPC Phase 2). 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers approximate 11,015 square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Projected Population). Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percents respectively as shown in Figure 1. Main sources of income in the county include: Livestock production contributing 88 percent of cash income in the pastoral; 50 percent in the agro- pastoral; and 23 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Others sources of income include: Cash crop production; food crop production and casual waged labour with varied contributions across livelihood zones (Table 9). 1.2. Objectives The overall objective of the Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at the livelihood level the quality and quantity of the 2018 March to May long rains and assess their impact on all key sectors including crop; livestock; water and sanitation; health and nutrition; and education. To establish the impacts of other compounding factors on household food security, such as livestock diseases, livestock mortality, crop failures and market food prices. To establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities including food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 2: Rainfall distribution as a percent of normal Methodology and Approach The 2018 LRA assessment which was a multi-agency and multi sectoral approach consisted of representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) drawn from all the key government sectors and various non-state actors. The process involved an in-depth data collection and analysis of primary data including Key Informant Interviews (KII), Focussed Group Discussions (FGDs), community interviews, market surveys, and checklists administration. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary information was also analysed from the SMART surveys, National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) monthly bulletins, and Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) data. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports generated. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The assessment was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018 covering all the 23 Arid and Semi-arid (ASAL) counties of Kenya. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission with the aim of triangulating the information in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership as the true reflection of the county food security status. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern with the long rains season occurring in March to May and short rains season October December. The County receives average annual rainfall ranging from 500 millimetres (mm) in the lowlands and up to 1,500 mm in the highlands around Kabartonjo, Kabarnet, Sacho and Barwessa divisions. county rains dependent for crop production across all the livelihood zones. The onset of long rains was early in the first dekad of March compared to the normal onset in the second dekad of March. The cumulative amount of rains received during the season amounted to 931mm which was over 350 percent of normal long rains as shown in figure 2. Spatial distribution was even across the county with good temporal distribution characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Currently there are no major resource based conflicts in the county. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholder to enhance peaceful coexistence among the households living in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards In Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones of Baringo South outbreak of Rift Valley fever and Blue tongue diseases were reported. These diseases threaten the livelihoods of farmers who rely upon the animals for food and income supply. The diseases are likely to spread to other area if not contained on time. Fall Army Worm (FAW) out-breaks were reported in all livelihood zones across the county at the beginning of the season. Despite the FAW outbreak, maize production was not affected because of the substantial rains that suppressed the larva enabling maturity of the maize plant. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Baringo County depends mainly on the long rains for crop production across all the livelihood zones except in irrigated cropping livelihood zone which depends on irrigation. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones contributing 63 and 21 percents to food in the respective zones. While in the same zones, Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. However, in the irrigated zones, maize is grown for commercial purposes contributing 26 percent to cash income. Due to its varied ecological zoning, the County has diversified crops. The main food crops grown in the County include Maize, Beans, millets, Irish Potatoes, cow peas and Sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops and even cash crops like coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Rain-fed crop production The three main crops grown under rain-fed agriculture during the long rains were maize, beans and finger millet. Generally the acreage cultivated in 2018 was higher than the long term average due to massive campaigns by the county government to increase food security through provision of inputs; improved rainfall and also the shamba system a programme which saw opening up of new forest land in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo central. The acreage for maize and finger millet increased by 13 and 5 percent respectively of their long-term averages while that of beans reduced by 4 percent as shown in Table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because most of the farms were inaccessible with machinery in the low lying areas of Kerio valley and Churo Amaya wards due to the heavy long rains The rains positively affected the growth of the crops except in the low lying areas of the county in which 348 hectares of land was affected by floods. Table 1: Crop Production under Rain-fed Agriculture Area planted during 2018 Long rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Long rains season 2018 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Long rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 45,122 40,046 1,133,940 800,650 Beans 21,196 22,028 200,709 253,223 Finger millet 5,744 5,466 43,904 39,325 Despite the attack of Maize crop by Fall Army Worm (FAW), production is expected to be above the LTA, since farmers controlled the worm and also the continuous rains reduced the effect of the pest. Around 14,130 hectare was affected by the worm affecting about 31 percent of the crop. Maize harvest is projected to be 42 percent above the long term average while that of finger millet is projected to be 12 percent above the long term average production. The Bean crop was also affected by the heavy rains and their production was expected to be below the long term average by 21 percent as most beans were destroyed by excess rains. The average maize production across the County is expected to be 25 bags per hectare. Mixed farming areas and irrigated livelihood zone is projected to have the highest production as compared to the Agro pastoral zones. Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize grown commercially for seed, beans, cowpeas, watermelon and tomatoes. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 42 percent compared to the LTA due to availability of water thus more farmers were contracted by the seed companies. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and beans by 28 and 10 percent respectively. The decline in these acreages was attributed to the flooding which destroyed arable lands. Production is expected to decline for beans and tomatoes by 18 and 13 percents of the long term averages as most of the crops were affected by fungal diseases due to the continuous wet conditions which also affected watermelons. However, production for commercial maize, cowpeas and seed maize is expected to record above long term average as shown in table 2 below. Notably, irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms Table 2: Crop Production under Irrigated Agriculture Area planted during the 2018 Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2018 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2018 Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 1,392 1,106 Beans Cowpeas Tomatoes Seed Maize 2,166 1,524 84,264 57,150 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The county recorded high volumes of cereal stocks which were above the long term averages maize, rice, sorghum, green grams and millet. Maize stock for instance was 87 percent above the long term average of 197,397 bags in the county. Farmers held 150 percent of their long term averages maize stocks as shown in table 3 below. The above LTA stocks held by farmers were as a result of early harvesting in parts of agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones where planting was early. Furthermore, there were carry-over stocks from the previous season in the mixed farming zones of Eldama Ravine as farmers did not clear their 2017 stocks in anticipation of better prices from NCPB. The stocks held by farmers for Sorghum, Green grams and millet increased by 60, 151 and 10 percents respectively. The above LTA stock of green grams held by farmers were due to increased acreage planted under irrigated livelihood zone during the short rains season of 2017. The current maize stocks held by household is expected to last for 4-5 months in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones and only 1-2 months in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Traders hold 346 percent of the LTA due to slow movement since farmers have started harvesting and have stocks and are also utilizing green maize coupled with low market prices. Posho millers currently hold 93 percent above their LTA maize stock. Table 3: Commodity Stocks in the County Commodity Maize Sorghum Green gram Millet Current Current Current Farmers 249,78 167,05 1,511 1,372 Traders 78,900 22,818 2,501 2,577 Millers 14,552 7,523 25,932 Total 369,16 197,39 3,008 2,579 1,026 1,971 1,875 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. There is also an effort by the county government to promote rabbit farming. Livestock production contributes 88 percent to cash income in the pastoral livelihood zones, 50 percent in the agro-pastoral, 23 percent in mixed farming and eight percent in the irrigated livelihood zone. Pasture and Browse Condition The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones as shown in table 4 below. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and legume by-products are conserved for livestock feed. These by-products are important as they are utilized during dry period and hence supplementing strategic feed reserves in the county. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the county which is an improvement from the previous season. The improvement in body condition is attributed to availability of forage and water due to good performance of rainfall. Body condition is expected to remain good throughout the season. As a result of the improved body condition it is expected that there will be increase in livestock prices, household income and milk production. Subsequently, the nutritional status of children under the age of five will improve. Table 5 below summarizes and compares to normal the body condition of various livestock species in the county. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Water Availability and Access The main sources of water include: Shallow wells, boreholes, permanent rivers, water pans, streams, springs and piped water. Most open water sources were adequately recharged at 90- 100 percent of their capacities. The trekking distances have reduced compared to same period the previous year due to adequate recharge levels at the sources. Currently, the distances are up to one kilometre in the mixed farming livelihood zones, 3-4 kilometres in the irrigated cropping and ago-pastoral livelihood zones while in the pastoral areas, the distances range between 4-6 kilometres. The watering frequency has improved due to availability of water and all livestock species are watered daily as shown in table 6 below. Livelihood Pasture Browse condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors Limiting access condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Normal Mixed farming to fair Irrigated cropping to fair Up surging lake water Agro-pastoral to fair to fair Pastoral to fair to fair Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Fair to Fair to Fair to Pastoral Fair to Fair to Fair to Table 6: Water Availability and Access Liveli Sources Expected Duration to last (Months) Return trekking distance(Km) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Until onset of short rains Until onset of short rains 0.5-1 1-1.5 Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Until onset of short rains Until onset of short rains Daily Daily pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Daily Daily Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, seasonal rivers Water- pans, Bore-holes Daily Daily Birth Rates, Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Current birth rates are normal and within the seasonal range of two to four percent but higher than the rates recorded in the previous seasons due to good body condition. Similarly, there was a slight increase in milk production and consumption at household levels due to availability of forage and water across all the livelihood zones as shown in table 7 below. Milk prices currently range between Ksh. 50-60 per litre in the county which is normal at this time of the year. Table 7: Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Average Number of Livestock (Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs) Table 8: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Milk Production per HH (ltrs) Milk consumption per HH (ltrs) Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral The average tropical livestock unit is 2.5 for the poor income household and 4.7 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, there was slight increase in TLUs over the previous season due to the restocking of small stocks in the month of May and June by the Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Programme (RPLRP). Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities There was no livestock migration reported into and out of the county. However, livestock diseases reported in the county include: Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Sheep and Goat Pox, PPR, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Rabies, Blue tongue, Enterotoxaemia, Black quarter, and New Castle Disease (NCD). There was also confirmed outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum area and Lumpy Skin Disease in Barwessa ward leading to imposition of quarantine in Barwessa by the time of the assessment. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. The mortality rates for all livestock species were at normal ranges at two percent. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub- counties. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main food commodity markets in the county include: Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main livestock markets include Barwessa, Kinyach, Kollowa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat and Emining. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. However, in Barwessa ward, markets have been closed due to imposition of quarantine as a result of outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever has also been confirmed in Logumgum area which is likely to result in closure of markets. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep while food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market Supplies and Traded Volumes The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodity traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock because of the good body condition. Figure 3: Average Maize Price per kilo in the County Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 4: Average Goat Prices in the County Price (Ksh.) 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price The current price of a kilogram of maize for July was Ksh. 42 compared to Ksh. 58 same period in the previous year which lower percent. Compared average, the price was 10.6 percent lower. Highest prices recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.65 per kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 35 per kilogram. The low prices recorded in the irrigated livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the timely maturing of on-farm crops which enabled households access green maize. The trend of maize price has shown a general decline from the month of February which is a sharp contrast to that of the previous year when the season performed dismally as shown in figure 3. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones hence the decrease in maize prices increases there capability to buy maize and also makes Terms of Trade (ToT) favorable. The farmers in irrigated livelihood zones depend on maize as an income source, Low prices in prices diminish their ability to have cash income from maize. Goat Prices Currently as at July, an average sized goat was valued at Ksh. 2,972 compared to the long term average price of Ksh. 2,107 and Ksh. 1,773 same period in the previous year as shown in figure 4. The current price is 41 and 67.6 percent above the LTA and period respectively. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty at Ksh. 3,000 while the lowest prices were recorded in the agro-pastoral livelihood zones at an average of Ksh. 2,800 The price trend from the month of March to July has been consistently above LTA and similar period the previous year which is majorly attributed to the good body condition of the goats. Figure 5: Comparative Terms of Trade in the County Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat 3.2.3. Terms of Trade Terms trade improved favorable currently as the sale of an average sized goat would purchase 71 kilograms maize translating to 61 percent above the LTA (Table 5). Comparing current terms of trade with the same period last year, there significant improvement from 31 kilograms in 2017 to 71 kilograms in 2018 which is attributed the fall of maize prices coupled with an increase in goat prices. The trend shows a general improvement in the terms of trade since the month of February. 3.2.4. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones contributing 88 and 50 percents of cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percents respectively. Other sources of income include: Food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all species Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Livestock Production Production Production Fishing Casual Waged Labour Small Business 3.2.5. Water Access and Availability (Including Cost and Consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Roof-water harvesting structures are commonly used across all livelihoods in institutions. Most of the water sources were adequately recharged between 90100 percent of their capacities across all livelihoods zones due to heavy rains. Currently surface water facilities hold approximately 6575 percent of their normal capacities. Intakes in Sandai, Kamuskoi, Endao, Salabani were destroyed and or silted due the performance of rains. Flatswampy areas previous cultivated during times of inadequate rains were not productive during the season because of water clogging and flooding. In isolated cases, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs and poor management of the resource. However, the status of water levels in dams, boreholes, shallow wells, springs, rivers and water pans is stable across all livelihood zones. The available water is expected to last between 3-4 months except in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas experiencing high temperatures leading to high evaporation where water is expected to last between 2-3 moths Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to water sources have reduced compared to the normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones the distances have reduced by approximately 50 percent, which has largely been attributed to the good performance of the rains. The average distances to domestic water sources were normal at 3-5 kilometres in pastoral agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 4-5 kilometres. The distances were normal at less than two kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. Water from open water source (rivers, dams and water pans) are not retailed. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 2530 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 20-25 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 2-4 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was less than two minutes as shown in table 10 below. Table 10: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for domestic use (Kms) Cost of water (KES) Waiting time at water source (minutes) Average HH use (litrespersonday) Projected duration of water in (months) Current Normal Current Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 34.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 pastoral 33.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 Mixed Farming 0.51.5 0.5-2.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 4 25-30 20- 25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5-1.5 0.5-1.5 3 5 3 5 1 - 3 25-30 20- 25 3.2.6. Food Consumption Table 11: Food Consumption Scores by Groups LRA 2017 LRA 2018 Female Female Borderline Acceptable The mean food consumption score in the western agro-pastoral cluster is 65 with 91 percent of the population having acceptable, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores as shown in Table 11 above. There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year as shown in the table above. According to the drought early warning bulletin for the month of June, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.7. Coping Strategy The mean reduced coping strategy index for the western agro-pastoral cluster was 14 compared to 19 the same period last year. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. In July households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18 followed by Pastoral at 14. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3. Female exhibited more coping strategies at 18 while male having a mean coping strategy of 13. Within the cluster, only two percent of the population was reported as not coping. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 21 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 17 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea were reported to be the most prevalent diseases for under-fives and the general population in the county (Table 12 and 13). There was an increase of 24 percent in upper respiratory infections in 2018 from 4,857 cases same period last year. This was mainly attributed to prolonged rains which brought about cold temperatures resulting in high rates of pneumonia and flu. Table 12: Morbidity Trends for the Under-Fives Disease Upper Respiratory Tract Infections(URTI) Diarrhoea Figure 6: Proportion of children with MUAC less than 135mm Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec at risk (MUAC135mm) Malaria Table 13: Morbidity Trends for the General Population 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The proportion of children under one year who are fully immunized (FIC) in the county from January to June 2018 is 71 percent compared to 60 percent same time last year. The increase in coverage for fully immunized child was attributed to increase in intergraded outreaches and improvement in the cold-chain in the county. Also, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program contributed to the wider immunization coverage in the county. Analysis of data from the DHIS indicates that Vitamin A supplementation coverage was 71.7 percent for children aged 6-59 months for the period January to June 2018 compared to 59.8 percent same period in 2017. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-59 months was attributed to Malezi Bora activities conducted at ECD and community health units. The coverage in Baringo Central, Baringo South, Baringo North, Mogotio and Koibatek were 105, 41, 64, 73, and 43 percent respectively. East Pokot reported the lowest coverage of 36 percent. 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The Global Acute Malnutrition prevalence for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent. According to SMART survey conducted in June 2018, Tiaty Sub County recorded prevalence percent compared to 25.2 percent recorded period year, indication of improvement in nutritional status. According sentinel NDMA, the proportion of children below five years malnutrition decreased from 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which Disease Upper Respiratory Tract Infections(URTI) Diarrhoea Malaria is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017 as shown in figure 6 above. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is five while adults have three meals a day. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is two meals a day. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is a major challenge for pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with cultural values. Most households in the pastoral zone relieve themselves in the bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends in Baringo County Indicator Short rains assessment, February Long rains assessment, July of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good for all livestock species in the mixed farming zone, Good to fair for cattle and sheep in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones Good for all livestock species across all livelihood zones Water consumption (litres per person per day) 12-15 in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones 15-20 in the mixed farming and up to 25 in the irrigated farming Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 20-25pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Irrigated: 25-30 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing (km) Mixed farming: 1-3 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-7 Pastoral: 6-13 Mixed farming: 1 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Pastoral: 5-6 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index Mean 15.7 Agro-pastoral 15.3 Pastoral 18.4 Irrigated zone 2.8 Mean: 14.1 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Pastoral 14.2 Irrigated: 3.2 Food consumption score Poor: 18 Borderline: 20 Acceptable: 61 Poor: 1.1 Borderline: 8.0 Acceptable: 90.8 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education Access (Enrolment) There was an increase of 799 children (439 girls, 360 boys) at the end of Term II in ECD enrolment within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out through the year. Primary school enrolment was stable through Term I and II across all the sub counties. Secondary schools enrolment increased in Term II compared to Term I due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and free registration of candidates by Kenya National Examination Council (KNEC). Table 15: Enrolment Term I 2018 Term II 2018 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 26,779 25,059 51,838 27,139 25,498 52,637 Primary 74,064 69,623 144,592 74,534 69,910 144,444 Secondary 20,798 20,633 41,431 21,858 21,042 42,900 Participation (Attendance) The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECD centres decreased in Term II compared to Term I because of delay in disbursement of HGMP funds to primary schools. ECDE centres which are devolved at the County rely on primary schools for meals because theres no budgetary allocation at the County. Despite the increase in enrolment at ECDE centres, Marigat Sub County recorded 373 pupils unable to attend classes due to floods and insecurity. In Baringo Central sub county 287 pupils (236 boys and 51 girls) from secondary school missed school due to negative influence from peers, transfers and motor bike riding for boys. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys in February and June respectively. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay in delivery of food). School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 71,937 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 16: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP Schools Girls Totals Koibatek Mogotio 10,586 10,489 21,075 B North 6,937 6,539 13,476 BCentral 3,141 3,101 6,242 Marigat 6,347 6,295 12,642 Tiaty 10,709 7,793 18,502 Totals 37,720 34,217 71,937 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), there is an elevated probability that cumulative rainfall for the October to December short rains will be above average over the eastern and western Kenya. According to the veterinary department given the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum, there is high likelihood of the spread of the RFV to other parts of the county leading to market disruptions due to quarantine in Barwessa and Baringo South. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, wholesale maize prices are expected to remain below the 2017 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected favourable harvests. According to the State department of Agriculture, Fall Army Warm (FAW) infestation will likely remain at 10 to 15 percent through the scenario period due to the mitigating effect of the heavy March to May rains. According to FEWSNET June, 2018 to January, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically remain above normal through September to the onset of the short rains. 5.2. Food Security Outlook for August to October, 2018 The food security situation in the county is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk at household level and continued integrated health outreach services. No food security related mortalities are expected between September and November. There is no likely change expected in the phase classification for the scenario period. 5.3. Food Security Outlook for November to January, 2019 Food security situation over the period December to February, is projected to remain stable but on a declining trend with minimal food deficits. Even though rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the short rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to decline. Food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from acceptable food consumption score to borderline food consumption score due to diminishing household stocks and reduced milk availability. Households are expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due continued integrated outreach programmes. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain stressed for the pastoral livelihood zone and minimal for all other livelihood zones. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is minimal (IPC Phase 1) for mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the pastoral all species livelihood zone. 6.1.2. Summary of Findings There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year. The mean food consumption score in the county is 65. 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14.1 with female having a mean of 17.5 while male have a mean coping strategy of 12.6. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24.4 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20.5 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18.1 percent reduced number of meals per day; 16.8 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 16.5 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. The GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 16.8 percent compared to 25.2 percent recorded same period last year. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition decreased from 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017. 6.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking (1Most insecure, 4Least food insecure) Current main food security threats Tiaty High malnutrition rates, Poor accessibility of roads, reported cases of livestock deaths, poor quality water, floods, high temperatures Baringo South Insecurity fears, Upsurge of IDPs, Floods, closure of schools due to insecurity and floods, closure of health centres, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever Baringo North LSD in Barwessa, Poor infrastructure, floods, markets closure in Barwessa ward, high temperatures, Mogotio Floods, Fall Army Worm, Livestock diseases, Blue Tongue, fast depletion of water sources, high food prices, human diseases Baringo Central Landslides, flooding in the lowlands, high food prices, Eldama Ravine Fall Army Worm, Livestock Diseases (Blue Tongue) Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 71,917 pupils in 336 primary schools. 5.2.2 Non-Food Interventions Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders Agriculture Provision of air tight Post-harvest devices Reduction on post-harvest losses All wards Ksh. 1.3 million Schools-12 Individuals 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Provision of relief inputs (Planting seeds, Land preparation and Fertilizer) Improved production and productivity 10 wards 1,000,000 2,310 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of chemical Reduce the attack of Maize All wards 1,100,000 20,000 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Livestock Disease control (Vaccinations and vector control) Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition Baringo Central, South, North, Mogotio 2,700,000 livestock farmers February to December BCG and Department of Livestock Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes Increase chances of livestock survival during drought period Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty 20,000,000 20,000 Livestock (TLUs) Feb 2017-June MOALF, Disease surveillance on RVF and other diseases Ensure proper monitoring of disease incidences for proper interventions All Sub Counties 50,000 100,000 TLUs Feb 2017-June Capacity building of Farmers (Normal Extension and Pastoral Field School Concept) Well Infirmed staff and farmers for best practices All Sub Counties 5,000,000 Throughout Partners Water and Sanitation Water trucking Improve water access Whole County 500,000 Institutions On going BCG, NG, BHs rehabilitation Improve water access Whole County 10,000,000 households On going BCG, NG, Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders Capacity building on water management and catchment protection Capacity strengthening on water resource management Whole County 600,000 2 Sub counties On going RCS, WV, UNCEF Construction of New water Projects Improve water access Whole County 46,000,000 1,560 households 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV Health and Nutrition Vitamin A Supplementation To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security. All health facilities, selected 1,850,000 70,000 Routine supported by UNICEF, Zinc Supplementation To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities 2,000,000 32,000 Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) improveadjust the Nutrient status of the affected community. 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 20,000000 1,500 Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) To lower morbidity and mortalities hence improving food security. All health facilities community units 1,000,000 20,000 Routine County Department of Health Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities Ksh. Ksh. 2,450,000 21,000 Routine County Department of Health supported by UNICEF Deworming To enhance children participation and growth All health facilities 1,000,000 21,000 children Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF Food Fortification (MNPS-micronutrient powder supplementation. To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities 700,000 31,000 Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF Education To increase access and All sub counties schools Continuous M.O.EWFP Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders retention of learners 71,937 pupils Supply of water storage tanks To increase access and retention of learners, and Baringo Central secondary school with 102 students One year UNICEF Supply of water safeguards To improve access to clean water Baringo Central secondary school with 170 students One year UNICEF 6.3. Recommended Interventions 6.3.1. Food Interventions Following the assessment of the long rains on the impact on various sectors, the team recommended reduction in the population in need of immediate food aid in the county as shown in Table 18 below. Table 18: Population in need of Food Assistance 6.3.2. Non-Food Interventions County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Agriculture Development of strategy for the Department 111,000 households County Government , Development partners Ksh. 5M Human resources Developme documents including CIDP, Manifesto 2018-2019 SNo. Sub-County Population in need ( range min max) Proposed intervention Tiaty 15-20 Baringo South 10-15 Baringo North 10-15 Mogotio Baringo central Eldama Ravine County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Capacity building of staff on FAW control and provision of 50 staff Department of Agriculture and stakeholders Ksh. 2M Staff Immediately Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers) 8,000 households MOALF Ksh. 3M Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes 10,000 households MOALF , WORLD VISION NDMA, CIM, ACTION AID, Technical personnel 2018-2022 Post Harvest technologies promotion 20,000 households MOALF and stakeholders Ksh. 1M Technical staff One year Livestock Baringo North Tiaty Baringo - South Mogotio Livestock off- take(Market SupportCess) 1,500 households BCG(MOALF) ,Nat. Govt.(KLMC) Technical officers August, 2018-Dec, All Sub counites Disease control(Rift Valley Fever, Blue Tongue and Lumpy skin disease) Disease surveillance areas(Blue tongue) (Marigat, Mogotio, and All areas(FMD), (Barwessa) 60,000 Tongue- 150,000 50,000 BCG, National government Development partners Ksh. 9M Technical officers Feb, 2018- Mar, 2018 Baringo North Tiaty Baringo South Mogotio Provision of pasture seeds All Wards 2,000 households MOALF(BLRP RPLRP NDMA(EU) Partners Ksh.10 August 2018-Sept Baringo North Tiaty Baringo South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 41,500 households MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Technical officers Aug 2018- Dec,2018 County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Mogotio south and 1 in Mogotio in Mogotio Water and Sanitation All Sub Counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units All Sub Counties 1,850 households BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Technical officers 1-3 months All Sub Counties Roof Water harvesting structures All Sub Counties Institutions BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Ksh. 3M - 1-3 months All Sub Counties Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 4 Sub counties community water supplies. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-3 months All Sub Counties Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision All Sub Counties 4 Sub counties BCG, NG, RCS Ksh. 1M 1-3 months All Sub Counties Capacity building on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection All Sub Counties BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, Ksh. 1M 1-3 months All Sub Counties Drilling and Equipping of strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Construction and Rehabilitation of potential Low Cost Water Supplies Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Construction of four (4) earth dams for domestic and irrigation water use Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Capacity building on Wash Water managementResourc es Mobilization Conflict resolution and management and Catchment protection Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, Ksh. 5M 1-5 years County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Health and Nutrition County Map hot sport affected area August to Dec 2018 East Pokot Scale up IMAM Surge Hot spots WVK, MOH December County Nutrition Surveillance 45 hotspots 27,000 AFYA UZAZI MOH, WVK 3 months County Health and Nutrition education at Community level County wide 10,000 UNICEF AFYA UZAZI 3 months Vitamin A Supplementation County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK December Supplementation County wide 132,000 Health Services December Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County wide 7,362 WVKUNICEF and WPP December MIYCN E Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) County wide 105,321 MOH, WVK Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women County wide 26,596 MOH, WVK December SMART Survey Countywide December - Jan, 2019 Deworming County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK Sept.2018-r Education Baringo Central IGAS Educational learning Activities Salawa zone 1,900 Livestock, Fisheries , Irrigation, Education Parents Labour Long Term 5 years Baringo Central Green house Kabasis and Timboiywo primary MOA,MOE, BOM, ENV. Labour Technical skill 5 years County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Baringo Central Environmental Conservation Tenges BPrimary School Labour Technical Skill 5 years",
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2019.pdf": "Page 1 of 30 BARINGO COUNTY 2019 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and Baringo County Steering Group July 2019 1 Lillian K. Marita (Ministry of Health) and Shamton Waruru (National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) Page 2 of 30 The 2019 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) together with the technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance for the long rains was near normal to normal, high food prices, livestock diseases and incidences of resource-based conflicts were the main food insecurity drivers. Food is currently available in the households particularly in the mixed farming livelihood zone as the 42 percent of the food stocks held in the county are largely in this livelihood. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by the good body condition of livestock and milk is available though below normal in the pastoral livelihood zones. Currently, households in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones have access to food. Despite the increase in maize prices by 19 percent, goat prices have also increased by 15 percent when compared to the long- term averages. Consequently, the terms of trade are within the seasonal averages. Markets functions were normal and are well provisioned with food largely from other counties except for Loruk market where no activities are going on due to tension and fear of insecurity. Distances to water sources for domestic consumption have remained within seasonal norms in all livelihood zones except a slight increase noted in the pastoral livelihood. Water consumption has reduced across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, households are consuming 10-15 litres per person per day while those in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are consuming more than 15 litres per person per day. Hand-washing and water treatment across the livelihood zones is minimal at less than 10 percent for each of the indicators and as such are affecting the utilization pillar of food security. National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) surveillance data indicated that households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption as at July 2019 were 60.7, 34.5 and 4.9 percent respectively. The households who were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies were 17.2 percent and the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used Stressed and Crisis coping strategies respectively. Regarding livelihood change, there were 48.5 percent not employing any coping strategy while another 39.9 and 11.2 percent were using Stressed and emergency coping strategies respectively. The Nutrition status is Serious in Baringo North and South where the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate was 9.3 percent ad it was Critical, in Tiaty Sub county which had GAM rate of 20.9 percent. There were no unusual deaths reported and thus the Under Five Mortality Rate and the Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) were considered to be below the emergency cut offs. Baringo County is therefore classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the agro pastoral, NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty Sub-county. Page 3 of 30 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 4 County background .......................................................................................................... 4 Methodology and approach .............................................................................................. 4 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................ 5 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 5 InsecurityConflict ............................................................................................................ 5 Other shocks and hazards ................................................................................................. 5 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY....................... 5 Availability ....................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.1 Crops Production .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereals stock ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 7 Access............................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Market operations ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade ............................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................... 13 3.2.4 Water access and availability ..................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................... 16 Utilization ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .......................................................... 17 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ....................................................................... 18 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................... 19 Trends of key food security indicators ........................................................................... 19 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES ......................................................................................... 20 Education ........................................................................................................................ 20 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS .................................................................................. 21 Prognosis Assumptions .................................................................................................. 21 Food security Outlook (August-October) ...................................................................... 21 Food security Outlook (November - January)................................................................ 22 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS .................................................................... 22 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 22 Interventions ................................................................................................................... 24 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................ 24 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions ...................................................................................... 27 Page 4 of 30 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The area of the county is approximated 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) and a population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projection). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely:- Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihoods in the county which include, mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and variable high food prices and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Methodology and approach The food and nutrition security assessment exercise is usually conducted twice a year to assess the impact of long and short rains on the livelihoods and as such develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis. Primary and secondary data is used in the assessment process. Primary data is collected from the community in sample sites that would be representative of the four main livelihood zones. The data was collected through semi structured focus group discussions, key informant and market interviews. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was then collated, analyzed and triangulated and analysis was by livelihood zones. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were used to do the classification of the severity and identify the possible causes of food insecurity. The assessment exercise was conducted by a multisectoral and multi agency team comprising of lead team from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment in the county was done from 15th to 19th July, 2019. Pastoral Irrigard Cropping Mixed Farming Figure 1: Proportion of Population per Livelihood Page 5 of 30 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 3.1.11 Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the 3rd dekad of April compared to 3rd dekad of March normally. A total of 107.8 mm of rainfall was received compared to 297.4 mm normally. Majority of the county received 75-90 percent of normal with the southern parts of county particularly Mogotio and Eldama Ravine Sub County receiving near normal to normal rains of 90-110 percent together with some parts of Tiaty Sub County. Rains were erratic temporally and spatially they were unevenly distributed. The highest amount of rain was received in the 3rd dekad of April, thereafter rains were depressed. Trends of the vegetation cover index were below normal until the 1st dekad of July when it became above normal as a result of rains received in the month of May through June. 2.2 InsecurityConflict There were insecurity incidences in Kasiela area Baringo South Sub County where cattle were stolen. Tensions are also high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. The said tension has resulted in limiting access in Loruk area as the market is not optimally functional. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Livestock diseases were reported and specifically Camel disease known as Haemorrhagic septicaemia that led to the death of an estimated 200 camels in Tiaty Sub County. New Castle disease was also reported in the same sub county and led to the loss of 5000 poultry. Maize crop was affected by fall army worm as in 20 percent of the area planted however, measures have already been taken. 2.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Availability Pasture and browse are currently available in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihoods while pasture is below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone. The available forage is expected to last until and extend into the next short rains season which starts in October. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zone but is fair in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk is available however, in the pastoral livelihood zones it was largely from camels. Households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have 55 percent of maize stocks. Supply of food stuffs in the markets are normal across the livelihoods and as such food is available in the county. Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a percent of normal in Baringo County Page 6 of 30 3.1.1 Crops Production The long rains season in Baringo county is significant as the county is dependent it. The main crops grown in the county under rain fed in the mixed farming livelihood zone are maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Maize, beans and finger millet are the main crops in both the agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones. In addition to maize, tomatoes and watermelons are grown under irrigation and each contributes to 90 percent of cash income and 10 percent of food. Maize in the agro pastoral, mixed farming and the irrigated cropping livelihood zones contributes to 90, 60 and 20 percent food while it contributes to 10, 40 and 80 percent of cash income respectively. Cowpeas, finger millet, and beans contribute to 40 percent of cash income and 60 percent of food in the agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 1: Acreage and Crop production under Rain fed in Baringo County Area Planted (Ha) Production (90 kg bags) 2019 Long rains Long Term Average (5 year) Long rains 2019 Long rains ProjectedActual Average (5 year) Long rains Maize 38,172 41,133 900,550 1,017,295 Beans 17,066 19,421 154,812 222,323 Finger millet 6,402 5,220 41,513 34,325 Area planted under rain-fed for maize and beans was 93 and 88 percent of the long term average respectively while that for finger millet was 12 percent above the long term average. The maize crop is at various stages ranging from weeding to tasseling as households planted at different times as a result of delayed onset of rains which also varied across the livelihood zones. Maize is projected to be 88 percent of the long term average while that for the beans is projected to be 69 percent of the long term average. The decrease in production is attributed to the late onset of the long rains as a result of which farmers planted in different times and thus some crop yield will be reduced. Finger millet production is likely to be 20 percent above the long term average. The increase in production for finger millet is due to the increase in the acreage planted and provision of certified seeds. Table 2: Acreage and Production under Irrigation in Baringo County Area Planted (Ha) Production (90 kg bags) 2019 Long rains Long Term Average (5 year) Long rains 2019 Long rains ProjectedActual Average (5 year) Long rains Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melon Cow peas Page 7 of 30 Seed Maize 78,052 57,150 Crop farming under irrigation is done at Barwesa area and is largely for income, which fruits and vegetables as shown in Table 2. The maize grown is harvested while green as a source of income however, a large proportion of land is also put under seed maize. The acreage for maize and seed maize increased and was 36 and 34 percent above the long term average respectively. Area put under tomatoes reduced and was 70 percent of the long term average. Maize production increased and was more than three times of the long term averages while that for tomatoes reduced by 20 percent. The reduction in tomatoes was attributed to pests and diseases. Seed maize increased and is 30 percent above the short term average. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. 3.1.2 Cereals stock Table 23: Cereal Stocks in Baringo County Commodity Maize Millet Sorghum Current Current Current Farmers 90,878 164,600 1,324 1,646 Traders 30,951 38,135 Millers 25,668 16,948 Food AidNCPB 19,929 39,400 2,319 Total 167,426 259,083 Maize stocks in the county are 65 percent of the long term average. The current maize stocks are from the previous harvest as the crop in the farms is due for harvest as from August. The households hold 55 percent of the long term average while traders have 81 percent of the stocks they would normally hold. Millers on the other hand have above average stocks by 51 percent above the long term average while National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) have half of the stocks when compared to the long term average. The millet stocks being held by the households and the traders were 80 and 90 percent of the long term averages respectively. The sorghum stocks held by the households were low at 40 percent of the long term average while the traders had 86 percent of the long term average. Overall, food is currently available in the county and the stocks are likely to last 2-3 months compared to 3-4 months normally. 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. Goats contribute 60 percent of the household income in the agro pastoral livelihood zone while sheep, cattle and chickens contribute to 25, 14 and percent respectively. In the irrigated livelihood zone, the livestock reared are goats, sheep and cattle. In this livelihood zone, goats and sheep contribute to 65 and 15percent of household income respectively. In terms of food, goats contribute to 10 percent while the chicken and cattle contribute to 25 and 60 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cattle contribute to 70 percent of the household income with goats and chicken contributing 15 and 10 percent respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the shoats (goats and sheep) give the highest proportion to income where goats contribute to 60 percent of the income and sheep contribute to 30 percent. Goats contribute another 60 percent to food in this livelihood zone. Page 8 of 30 Table 3: Contribution of Livestock Production to Food and Income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and browse situation The pasture condition is good in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to good in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The browse condition is good across all livelihood zones. The forage quality is fair to good in mixed farming livelihood zones but fair in the other three livelihood zones of the county. Pasture is expected to last 1.5-3 months as compared to normal 3-4 months; with only pastoral zones having limited of access due to insecurity. Areas with access limitation to forage include Mukutani, Arabal, Kalabata, Saimo soi and Kapedo. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition in Baringo County Livelihood Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Current Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Insecurity tensions Insecurity tensions Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The livestock body condition for all livestock species is good in mixed farming livelihood zones, fair to good in irrigated cropping and good in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The current body conditions are attributed to fair quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain with the positive forecast by Kenya Metrological Department indicating continuation of the off season rainfall. The livestock body condition may lead to livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Page 9 of 30 Table 54: Livestock body condition od Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Tropical livestock units (Tropical Livestock Units) and birth rates The present TLUs are three in poor households and 4.7 in the medium households (Table 5). There was slight decrease in TLUs as compared to normal as a result of delay in the kidding and lambing as a result of the experienced dry season as from March to May. The general birth rates were 2.5 across all livelihood zones. The current birth rate is low attributed to delayed conception as a result of previous poor performance of the rains that led to poor body condition. The deviations were due to low levels of forage and livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. The highest birth rates however, were reported in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units for Baringo County Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Current Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Milk Production and consumption The milk availability slightly increased with improvement of forage condition and reduction in trekking distance. The increases resulted in decrease of milk prices from Ksh.60 to Ksh. 50 in mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and from Ksh. 90 to Ksh. 60 in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk that is available in the pastoral livelihood zones is sourced from the mixed farming zones. Milk consumption increased to 1-2 litres in the period under review compared to what was reported during the short rains and largely near normal in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro pastoral livelihood zones. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the milk consumption is 50 percent of normal. Page 10 of 30 Table 7: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) Milk consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KSh.) Current Current Current Mixed farming 40-50 Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities The only reported migrations were within the county, where in Baringo North at Saimo soi and in Tiaty, livestock movements were reported and the animals are currently in Silale, Paka, Korossi hills and Mallaso. There were diseases reported in the county as indicated in the table 8. The disease occurrences were in the normal ranges. The mortality rates were at two percent across the livelihoods except in the pastoral-all species livelihood zones where mortality was 2.5 percent. The camels had three percent mortality rate due to eruption of Hemorrhagic septicaemia. Disease surveillance is ongoing in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 8: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central New Castle Disease Across the sub county Poultry 5,000 Vaccinations conducted in farms Across the subcounty Goats Endemic Few cases reported Sheep goats Tiaty CCPP, PPR Across the subcounty Goats and Sheep Endemic Planned Vaccinations Haemorrhagic septicaemia Across the subcounty Camels Planning for drug procurement then treatment Cattle camels Planned Vaccinations Mogotio Majimoto, Kamar, Simotwe, Sinende, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Lembus Mogotio, Eminining, Koibos, Goats Endemic Vaccination done Few areas Sheep and goats Planned Vaccinations Re-current Cattle Blanthrax Cattle Vaccination done Eldama Ravine Plant poisoning Majimazuri, Mumberes Vaccination done Abortions Ravine ward cases reported Vaccination done Ravine,Perkerra,L.kwen cases reported Vaccination done Blanthrax Sub-county Cattle 20,067 cattle Page 11 of 30 county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations) Rabies Ravine Cases reported. No deaths Baringo south Kapkuikui and Loboi Goats No deaths Treatment of affected stock Sheep goat pox Kimalel Shoats Vaccination Enterotoxaemia Kimorok Sheep and goats 1,000 Goats Heart water EwalelSoi, Kimalel ,KimondisBekibon, Kiserian Goats Awareness prevention Castle Disease Marigat Poultry No vaccinations Baringo North Across the subcounty (Endemic) Goats 20 goats Endemic PPR ,FMD, Red Water, LSD and Mange Saimo Soi, Barwessa Shoats, cattle 16 goats Vaccinations against PPR are on going Enterotoxaemia Sibilo Cattle 20 cattle Cases treated Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 50-70 percent but are still being recharged with the continued rains. The trekking distance decreased from 4-13 as compared to 4-10 in the last season. The watering frequency increased across all livelihood zones. The above dynamics have influenced positively; livestock body condition, milk production and also livestock prices. There was access limitation in the lakes due to crocodile hazards. Table 95: Water for Livestock in Baringo County Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Current Current Current Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers, streams Streams, water pans, Boreholes 2-3 months 3 months Page 12 of 30 Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Current Current Current Pastoral Bore- holes, water pans, rivers Water- pans, Bore-holes 2 months 2 months 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. There has been no market disruption at all markets in the county. Market supply for food commodities is mostly from outside the County which is normal for this time of the year. The main food stuffs being traded are maize, beans and vegetables. Supply of food items were normal across the livelihood zones. Supply of livestock were normal across the livelihood zones except in Loruk attributed to tensions and unwillingness to sell. Traded volumes for livestock were below normal in some markets while they were normal in Marigat, Barwesa, Nginyang and Amaya 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade Maize price The average price for a kilogram of maize in the county as at July, 2019 was Ksh. 56. The current price was nine percent above the price recorded in June 2019 and was 19 percent above the long term average of 2014-2018 (Figure 3). The price for July was 33 percent above the price recorded at the same time last year. The highest prices of Ksh.60 per kilogramme of maize were reported in the pastoral- all species livelihood zone while the lowest were recorded in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.42 per kilogramme. Maize prices have been on an upward trend as from February 2019 and remained below the long term averages recorded in the same period until May 2019 when the prices got above the long term averages (Figure 3). The increasing price was attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. The prices are likely to reduce slightly but remain above the long term averages for the next three months. Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize Prices in Baringo County Page 13 of 30 Goat price The price of a medium sized goat as at July 2019 had increased and was Ksh. 2564 compared to Ksh. 2285 reported in June 2019. The current price is 15 percent above the five year average of 2014-2018 and 14 percent lower than what was reported in the same time in 2018 (Figure 4). The trend of the prices was on a downward trend as from January however, as from July the prices picked an upward trend. The prices have been above or comparable to the long term averages in the period January to July. The decrease in prices was attributed to the deterioration of the body condition due to the delay in the onset of the long rains. The goat prices are likely to follow the normal trend remaining within the seasonal five year long term averages. There is likelihood of prices to slightly increase as from August for the next three months. Terms of trade The current terms of trade improved and were 12 percent above those reported in June 2019 although there percent below to the long term average. Currently, the sale of a goat can be exchanged for 46 kilograms of maize (Figure 5). The current terms of trade were 34 percent lower compared to those reported at a similar time last year where the sale of one goat could be exchanged for 70 kilograms of maize. The trend of the terms of trade have been on a downward trend since February 2019 although they remained above the long term average until May when they became comparable to the long term average (Figure 5). The trend could be attributed to the decrease in goat prices with a noted increase in maize prices across the livelihoods. The terms of trade are likely to remain stable in the next three months as no significant changes are expected in both the goat and maize prices. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones with livestock production including meat, milk, hides, skins and by products contributing to 69, 30 and 26 percent of cash income in the pastoral-all species, missed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, food crop production, contributes to 25 and 20 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cash crop production contributes to 15 percent of cash income while small businesses contribute to 10 percent. Additionally, in the agropastoral livelihood zone, poultry production contributes to 15 percent. Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat Prices in Baringo County Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County Page 14 of 30 Other current sources of income for the households are charcoal burning and casual labour as noted during the community interviews. Currently, 24, 23 and 21 percent of the households are getting their income from the sale of livestock, casual labour, sale of crops respectively. 11percent of the households are getting their income from petty trading and another 10 percent from formal employment at (West Pokot SMART Survey, June, 2019) 3.2.4 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Normally, Water sources are mainly concentrated in mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones Communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Water pans in the pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty sub county, Saimo Soi ward, Kinyach, Chemoe, Barsemoi, Majimoto, Kamar, Mbechot, Kapkelelwa, Bekibon, Bartabwa were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally and the water is likely to last for one to two months. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 50 percent of their normal capacity. The water is expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Ward od zone Water Source (Three (3) major sources) Operational Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Duration water months of full Capacity Recharged Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral Bore Holes Months months stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Bh, Kirim Bh , Ngoron, Sosionde , Silonga Water 1-2 Months Months 50 - 60 Springs 3 - 4 Months Months 30 - 40 Pastoral Bore Holes Months months stable Kadokoi, Sewa(Kisanana ward), Kimorok BH Water 1-2 Months Months 50 - 60 Springs 3-4Months months 30 - 40 Mixed Farming Bore Holes Months months stable Springs Months Months 50 - 60 Rivers Months Months 40 - 50 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 90 -100 Shallow Wells 3-4months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Months stable Page 15 of 30 Distance to water sources and waiting time According to the SMART survey findings, In Tiaty subcounty, the average distances to domestic water sources were varied with 34. 6 percent doing less than half a kilometer and another 48 percent doing 0.5- 2 kilometers. In Baringo North and South sub counties, majority of the households (58.7 percent) were covering less than 0.5 kilometers and another 35.3 percent covering more than 0.5- 2 kilometers to less than two kilometers. The remaining six percent reported to be covering more than two kilometers. The distances in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones remained within the seasonal norms of 0.5-1.5 kilometers. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone is between 3 - 5 minutes which is above normal while in pastoral and agro - pastoral areas it was between 5 and 7 minutes. Waiting time varied with the households that were queuing for less than 30 minutes being 91.3 percent, 30-60 minutes were 6.5 percent and more than 60 minutes, 2.2 percent in Tiaty Sub County. In Baringo North and South sub-county, the proportion of households who were queuing for less than 30 minutes were 68.9 percent; 30 to 60 minutes, 15.6percent and above 60 minutes were 15.6 percent. Cost of water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh. 3 and 5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in the irrigated cropping and more than 20 litres in the mixed farming livelihood zone. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zone, consumption remained normal at 10-15 litres per person per day except for some hotspots experiencing water shortages in Mogotio Sub County particularly in Kapyemit, Mugurin, Kapnosigei, Eldebes, Kapkitur, Kamar, Kitecho, Molok, Maji Moto and Sirwa areas. In the pastoral livelihood zones consumption reduced and is currently 8-10 litres per person per day compared to the normal 10-15 litres per person per day. Households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like Typhoid, Amoeba, diarrhea and Malaria. There was reported suspected water contamination following reports that some flower farms that are discharging their effluents directly into river Tilatil. livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3 4 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 10-15 Agro Pastoral 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 10-15 10-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 0.5- 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15-20 15-20 Page 16 of 30 3.2.5 Food Consumption According to the NDMA Early Warning Bulletin, as at July, 2019, the proportions of households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores in the county 60.7, percent respectively. In the irrigated cropping livelihood zone, all the households were having acceptable food consumption scores. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households with acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores were 51.7, 44.8 and 3.4 percent respectively and had reduced from 93 percent who were reported to have acceptable food consumption scores in June (Figure 6). In the pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores had reduced to 48. 9 compared to 55.6 percent reported in June. Those having borderline and poor food consumption scores in this livelihood were 44.5 percent compared to 35.5 percent reported in June, 2019. The proportion of households who were having poor food consumption scores was 6.7 percent. In Baringo County, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption score reduced from 80 percent reported in January during the short rains assessment to the current 60.7 percent while that for households having borderline food consumption scores increased from 17 to 34.5 percent. A small proportion of the households (17.2 percent) were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies while the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used stressed and crisis coping strategies. 70, 31.8 and 3.4 percent were employing Stressed coping strategies in the irrigated cropping, pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Those not employing any coping mechanisms were 30 and 20.7 percent in the irrigated cropping and the pastoral livelihood zones respectively. It was noted that majority of the households (96.6 percent) in the agro pastoral livelihood zone were employing crisis strategies. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Based on NDMA data, the mean coping strategy index (CSI) for the county in July, 2019 was 14.3 and was comparable to what was reported in June however, it reduced from 16.3 reported in May, 2019. When compared to the same time last year, the coping strategy index had reduced from 18.3. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the coping strategy index was 27 and 14.5 respectively. The lowest coping strategy index was reported in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 4.3 percent. According to data received from NDMA in July 2019, with regard to livelihood change, at the county level there were 48.5 not using coping strategies. Overall, the proportion of households employing Stressed and Crisis coping strategies were 39.9 and 11.2 percent respectively. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, none were using any coping mechanism while in the pastoral livelihood zone 41.3 and 0.6 were employing stressed and crisis coping strategies respectively. In the irrigated cropping livelihood zone 90 percent indicated not using any coping strategy while the remaining 10 percent were using Stressed coping strategies. Pastoral-all species Irrigated cropping Acceptable Borderline Figure 6: Food Consumption Scores per livelihood in Baringo County Page 17 of 30 According to the SMART survey preliminary results, 50 percent of the households reported employing food consumption related coping strategies in Baringo North and South sub Counties. In Tiaty Sub County, SMART survey results indicated that a proportion of 75 percent employed coping strategies. The CSI was 15.3 percent and is lower compared to 2018 similar time. The most frequently employed coping strategy across the livelihoods was restricting consumption by adults in order for the children to eat (SMART Survey, Baringo North and South and Tiaty). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns The most prevalent diseases in the county were upper respiratory tract infections, malaria and diarrhea in which according to the survey carried out in Tiaty, 15, 10 and eight percent of the children under fives respectively were reported to have had those illnesses in the two weeks prior to the survey (SMART survey, Tiaty, 2019. Morbidity trends for both the under fives and the general population from January to June 2019, remained within the seasonal norms when compared to the same period in 2018 and 2017 (Figure 7). Cases of dysentery reported in January to June 2019 increased by 50 percent and were 1403 cases compared to a total of 932 cases reported in the same period in 2018 and 829 cases in 2017. The increase in cases was attributed to water contamination as a result of a prolonged the dry period experienced in March through to May, 2019 and as such water sources were being utilized by both human and animals. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Based on DHIS data, the proportion of fully immunized children in the county between January and June 2019, was 70.1 percent and comparable to the same period in 2018 however, it was below the national target of 80 percent. Immunization coverage was highest in Marigat and Mogotio Sub counties standing at 92.0 and 91.3 percent respectively. All the other Sub counties had coverage below the national target and was particularly low in East Pokot and Tiaty sub Counties at 51.3 and 40.2 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 6: Immunization Coverage Per Subcounty Sub County Percent of Fully Immunized Child (FIC) Baringo Central Baringo North East Pokot Koibatek Marigat Mogotio Tiaty County Average Number of Cases Morbidity Trends for Under Fives Diarrhoea 2017 Diarrhoea 2018 Diarrhoea 2019 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2017 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2018 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2019 Figure 7: Morbidity trends for Under Fives in Baringo Page 18 of 30 Vitamin A coverage between January and June, 2019 for children aged 6-59 months was 59.8 percent compared to 50.0 percent reported during the same period in 2018 (DHIS data). The increase in the coverage was attributed to the Malezi Bora exercise that was done in May of 2019 coupled with the uninterrupted supply of Vitamin A supplements. Children aged 6-11 months who were supplemented in Jan to June 2019 were 70.1 percent while those aged 12- 59 months were 58.5 percent. According to the SMART survey done in Tiaty Subcounty in June 2019, Vitamin A supplementation coverage for 6-11 months was 40.8 percent while that for children aged 12-59 months were 40.2 percent for. Overall, the proportion of children aged 6-59 months who had received Vitamin A supplementation once were 40.3 percent (Figure.8). 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Meal consumption has remained normal across the livelihoods with households in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones consuming two meals per day and households in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone are consuming the normal three meals. Household dietary diversity information collected in Baringo North and South through the nutrition SMART survey, indicated that the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups are 61 percent, a decrease from 73.4 percent reported at a similar time last year. Those households consuming 3- 5 food groups was 37.7 percent compared to 23.3 percent in the same period in 2018. The households consuming 3 food groups was 1.3 percent in both years. In Tiaty Sub county, the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups (28.2 percent); 3-5 food groups (60.8 percent) and 3 food groups were 13 percent. Nutrition status has deteriorated in the Sub County which is pastoral livelihood as the proportion of those consuming more than five groups had reduced in June 2019 compared to 38.6 percent reported in 2018. The NDMA data indicated that the proportion of children under five years with MUAC (135mm) was 20.2 percent in July 2019 and was noted to be 46 percent above the long term averages of 2014- 2018. When compared to June 2018, the current proportion was 56 percent above however, this proportion had remained similar to what was reported in May 2018 (Figure 9). During the period January to June 2019, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) 135mm) showed an upward trend as from March and was above the long term averages as from May. The highest proportions of children at risk of 6-11 months 12-95months 6-69 months Baringo North South Tiaty Figure 8: Vitamin A supplementation by Age at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 9: Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition MUAC 135mm Page 19 of 30 malnutrition were reported in Kapenguria, Komolion and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones where 42.4, 32.4 and 31.7 percent respectively. The high malnutrition rates in these wards are largely due to alcoholism as a result there is poor infant and child care practices. The global acute malnutrition rate for Baringo North and South is 9.3 percent and severe acute malnutrition rate 2.3 percent (SMART survey Baringo North and South, June, 2019). The results indicate that there has been no significant change in the nutrition status when compared to a similar time last year when the GAM rate was 7.8 percent and thus it remains in the Serious Phase (IPC Acute Malnutrition Classification). In Tiaty Sub County, the global acute malnutrition status was 20.9 percent with a severe acute malnutrition rate of 3.5 percent. Based on the global acute malnutrition rates, there was a significant change in the nutrition status compared to the same time last year. The most likely cause of malnutrition are food insecurity coupled with poor infant and young children feeding practices and poor health seeking behaviour especially in pastoral livelihood zone. 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The main sources of water currently are sub surface water sources as evidenced by 52.3 percent who reported use of water from sub surface water. In Tiaty Sub County and Baringo North Sub Counties, 76.2 and 52.3 percent of the households respectively reported drawing water from the open sources. Water treatment was being done by a dismal 4.4 percent in Tiaty Sub County while 28.6 percent in Baringo North and South. The most common treatment method used in Baringo North and South was boiling (71.1 percent) while in Tiaty most of the households used pot filters (59.1 percent) (SMART Survey, June 2019). The low water treatment rates may be the cause of the water borne diseases reported in the community. Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South respectively. Those who used soap and water were 24.7 percent in Tiaty. In Baringo North and South, those who did hand washing using soap and water were 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 44.1 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.2 percent. Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 7: Food Security Trends in West Pokot County Indicator Short rains assessment, February, Long rains assessment, July, 2019 of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good to fair Agro Pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated Cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Fair to poor Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day) Agro Pastoral 12-15lpppd Agro Pastoral 10-15 litres per person per day Irrigated Cropping 20-25lppd Irrigated Cropping 20-25 litres per person per day Page 20 of 30 Indicator Short rains assessment, February, Long rains assessment, July, 2019 Pastoral- species 12-15 litres per person per day Irrigated 8-10 litres per person per day Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per person per day Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per person per day Price of maize (per kg) Ksh.36 Ksh. 55.7 Distance to grazing Mixed Farming 1-4kilometers Mixed Farming 1 Kilimetere Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral 1-2 kilometres Pastoral 4-13 kilometres Pastoral 3-4 kilometres Irrigated Cropping 1-4 kilometres Irrigated Cropping Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index Agro Pastoral-18.8 Pastoral-14.7 Irrigated Cropping-2.6 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-27 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-4.3 Food consumption score Acceptable 80 percent Acceptable Borderline 17 percent Borderline 3 percent 3.0 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1 Education 4.1.1 Enrolment In Early Childhood Development Centers, there were 25,621 boys and 25,699 girls in term one, while in term two there were 26,134 boys and 24,947 girls . This indicates an increase of 513 boys (2percent) in term two compared to term 1 while for the girls it shows a decrease of 752 (2.93percent) . Enrolment in term II was comparable to term I attributed to lack of feeding programmes, pastoral migration especially in Tiaty, long distances to schools and ill health. There were 2.3 percent more boys in term two compared to girls. In Primary School there were 74,420 boys and 70,034 girls in term I, while in term II there were 75,289 boys and 70,640 girls. The enrollment in primary remained relatively the same for both boys and girls. Currently, school meals programme by National government, faith based organizations and other well-wishers may have contributed to the retention noted in term II. Overall, there are 3.2 percent more boys compared to girls. In Secondary school, in term I, there were 22,674 boys and 22,757 girls while in term II there were 22,168 boys and 22, 895 girls. The number of boys increased by 2.2percent in term II compared to term 1 while for the girls remained relatively the same. There are 1.6 per cent more boys compared to girls in the secondary schools. 4.1.2 Participation and Retention On average monthly attendance in early childhood development Center was 16,000 pupils in the five months per day this shows a decrease due to lack of School Feeding programmes. In Primary 50,000 pupils were in school in the five months per day. This shows an increase due to food support from well-wishers especially in Tiaty. While in Secondary 21,000 students were in school in the five months per day. This shows a decrease due to early pregnancies and boda boda business. Generally there were minimal dropouts in term two compared to term one 2019 and this was reflected in terms of sickness, transfers and effects of long distance to school from their homes. Page 21 of 30 4.1.3 School meals programme There are two types of school meals programme in the county namely:-Regular School Meals Programme supporting 115 primary schools in Tiaty Sub County and Home Grown School Meals Programme in 336 primary Schools in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo Central. In total the interventions supports 80,704 beneficiaries (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). 336 Primary schools that are under HGSMP have not received food for Term two. Inter Sectoral links where available Few schools have access to water pipeline connected to boreholes, dam (Kirandich, Chemususu, Kimao, Bartabwa). Some schools do roof catchment water harvesting, however, some have water storage facilities but do not have gutters and the tanks have not been installed. Most school get their water from directly fetching water seasonal rivers, water pans, boreholes. Sanitation is not adequate in most schools as there are no adequate hand washing facilities and toilets are not adequate. Girls in all primary schools in the County receive sanitary towels from the office of National government through the affirmative action fund which has a direct positive impact on girls attendance in schools. School performance is affected by availability and access to food at the household level. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1 Prognosis Assumptions According to FEWS NETUSGS preliminary forecast, the short rains season (October - December 2019) are likely to be average with timely onset as at October. The county meteorological department indicates that there are likely to be above average rains in the county in the July and August season Based on the long term trends of prices (NDMA data), the staple food prices are expected to be stable and be on a downward trend but remain within the seasonal norms as maize harvests from seed maize are expected as from August while goat prices are likely to remain within the long term averages. Terms of trade are likely to remain low especially in the pastoral livelihood zone but remain within the seasonal normal precipitated by the changes in maize and goat prices as from August for the next three months. Based on analysis of the current forage condition and the expected rainfall, pasture and browse are likely to be available and last until the next season which starts in October. Based on trend analysis and the current availability of water, distances to water sources for livestock are expected to remain stable across the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains in October. Distances and waiting time at the water source for domestic consumption are expected to remain normal for the next three months. 5.2 Food security Outlook (August-October) Pasture and browse conditions in the county are likely to be good following the anticipated July- August rainfall and as such the livestock body condition is expected to improve across all livelihoods. Improved livestock productivity in terms of availability of milk and meat at household Page 22 of 30 level is likely to be witnessed following anticipated minimal migrations. Water availability and accessibility is expected to improve across the livelihoods and households are likely to consume more than 15 litres per person per day. In terms of food accessibility, it is likely that food is likely to be physically available in the markets and that the prices for maize which is the staple food are anticipated to remain stable following the anticipated harvest as from August. Livestock prices may increase as a result of good body condition of the livestock and thus the purchasing power of households is expected to remain favourable through the three months under review. Food consumption patterns are likely to be improve as food will be readily available and accessible during this time and as such the nutrition status for the children under fives is likely to improve. No significant changes are expected in the livelihood coping strategies. No significant changes are expected in the mortality rates for the children under five years of age and the general population. The food security situation is likely to improve and as such some of the households that are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected to move to NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) as from October 2019 5.3 Food security Outlook (November - January) Livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to remain above normal following the expected continued rains in the July- August rains that will sustain the good forage condition across the livelihoods. The average performance of the October-December rains is also likely to sutain the livestock productivity further leading to increased milk production making it available for consumption at the household level. Water resources are likely to be fully recharged and as such water is likely to be available and accessible to the households for domestic consumption. Staple food prices are anticipated to remain stable as livestock prices slightly improve as per the seasonal trends. Consequenty, terms of trade are expected to improve slightlyand remain favourable for the livestock farmers enabling households to have good household purchasing power and access to food until December. In January however, the prices are likely to come down as a result of oversupply in the market as households are likely to be selling their animals to meet other household needs such as school fees. The proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores are expected to increase following the available household stocks and favourable terms of trade. No significant changes are expected in the coping strategies and mortality rates. Nutrition status is likely to improve following availability of milk and other food at household level. More households that are currently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as at December 2019. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1 Conclusion 6.1.1 Phase classification The Phase Classification in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zone is None Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while the agro pastoral livelihood zone is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone particularly in Tiaty, it is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 6.1.2 Summary of Findings The long rains were cumulatively near normal however, temporal distribution was poor and spatial distribution was poor. Crop production is projected to be near normal with harvests from seed Page 23 of 30 maize expected as from August. In the pastoral livelihood zone, food availability in the markets is short termly below normal however, this is expected to change following the anticipated harvests from the irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Currently, households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have maize stocks sufficient to last for the next three months. Terms of trade are average in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihood zone but below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone thus households in this livelihood zone are having a challenge in financial accessibility despite the physical availability of food in the market. In areas of Loruk, in Baringo North however, both physical and financial access is a limiting factor as there are no market activities going on. Water availability, access and utilization is normal for the households in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones while consumption in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones is 10-15 litres per person per day a reduction from 15-20 litres per person per day. Livestock diseases reported in the county were endemic and thus are short-termly making households to be vulnerable by stressing the livelihoods. Food consumption patterns were good in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agropastoral livelihood zone as more than 80 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption scores. In the pastoral livelihood zone however, food consumption was borderline as more evidenced by the 35.3 percent who had borderline food consumption scores. Reduce coping strategy index indicated that households were employing stressed strategies and this is considered normal for time of the year. Nutrition status is still Serious in Baringo North and South based on weight for height z-scores while it is at Critical levels in Tiaty sub county in the pastoral livelihood zone. Utilization pillar is a challenge as evidenced by the low latrine coverage, poor sanitation practices and the low hygiene levels exhibited by the households. 6.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County Food security rank (Worst to Best) ( 1- Main food security threat (if any) Tiaty No pasture and browse Inadequate water availability Livestock diseases High malnutrition rates Poor sanitation and hygiene practices Baringo North Livestock Migrations and Livestock deaths Inadequate pasture and browse Resource based conflicts Erratic Rainfall Baringo South Water quality High malnutrition rates Insecurity Mogotio Good rainfall performance Water availability and accessibility High crop production Baringo Central Good purchasing power Water availability and accessibility Livelihood diversified Page 24 of 30 Eldama Ravine Food availability, access and utilization Good rainfall performance Milk production is high 6.2 Interventions 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions Food interventions There is regular school meals programme (RSMP) and home grown school meals programme (HGSM) in the county which benefits 80,704pupils (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). Food aid in all livelihood ones by the Government of Kenya and Kenya Red Cross Society (GOKKRCS). A total of 4,660 household were reached with maize- 88,248 kilogrammes (kgs), Beans- 38,000 kilogrammes (38.0 metric tonnes) and Cooking Oil- 540liters. Non-food interventions Intervention Specific Location No. of beneficiaries Implementa Frame Implementation stakeholders HEALTH SECTOR Female Micro nutrients supplementation (Vitamin A, Zinc) All health facilities, selected ECD community Health Units All health facilities. 3,067,000 84,200 85,545 Routine MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK AfyaUzazi. BCG(DHS). Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 8 health facilities in East Pokot. 52,600 54,892 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by, UNICEF and WVK. IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) All health facilities and community units 1,000,000 52,600 54,892 BCG(DHS) supported by AfyaUzazi. Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant and Lactating Women. All health facilities offering ANC services 500,000 30,944 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by WVK, UNICEF Deworming All health facilities ANC 200,000 33,683 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by WVK, UNICEF AfyaUzazi AGRICULTURE SECTOR Integrated and sustainable food production systems All wards 20000 households July December Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Department of Water, WFP Page 25 of 30 Construction of grain store at Bartolimo Kabartonjo 1000 Households 20182020 Baringo County Department of Agriculture Provision of certified avocado seedlings 18 wards 5000 Households 20192020 State department of Irrigation and Baringo County Department of Agriculture NIB-Perkerra Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of demonstration Materials (Traps, pheromones, and chemical and spray) All Wards 20,000Households 20182020 Baringo County Department of Agriculture Plant Protection services department (PPSD) Agribusiness Empowerment project All wards 90 youth groups in Agribusiness WFP, Baringo County Government Soil and water management- RLACC Barwessa Bartabwa wards 2 yrs MOALFMOE Farm Ponds Development All wards 10000 HH Continuous State Department of Irrigation, County Government Of Baringo Rehabilitation of Kiboi irrigation scheme and construction of Kaptiony- Kiboi dam Barwessa 5years MOALF Distribution of 38,000 coffee seedlings Kabarnet, Kapropita, Ewalelchapchap, Sacho, Tenges, Mogotio, Koibatek, Mochongoi 2 Million 2018-2019 State department of crops development, Baringo county Department of Agriculture LIVESTOCK SECTOR Provision of Sahiwal bulls for upgrading purposes-10 bulls county-wise 1,200HH Jul2019-Jul Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, CPP, Blanthrax, PPR County-wise PPR-750,000 FMD-100,000 58,077 shoats Aug,2019 MOALF, RPLRP Provision of pasture seeds (1 Ton) Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio 200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, Provision of fencing Material to PFS (6) Baringo South Baringo Central 200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, Page 26 of 30 Mogotio RPLRP Provision of incubators to groups and day old chicks to groups Baringo South Baringo Central Mogotio 10,200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, RPLRP WATER Water trucking Institutions 1.5 M 30 Institutions 1 -3 Months BCG, GDC, WV, BH rehabilitation Community Water supplies 3580HH 1 3 Months BCG, NG, RCS, ACTED, ACTIONAID, GDC Water Boozer servicing and repair 3 Sub counties County 1 3 Months BCG, NG, NDMA Capacity building on water management County 3 Sub counties 1 3 Months KRCS, WV, ACTED, ACTIONAID, WFP, UNCEF Water supplies Rehabilitation and upgrading County 2160 HH 1 6 Months BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA Rehabilitation of BHs County 1670 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA Drilling and Equipping of County 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection County 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA EDUCATION SECTOR Dairy Production Kaptara Primary school 200,000 350 (195 Boys, 155 girls) 2019-2020 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Mango production Kaptara Primary school 500,000 450 (195 Boys, 155 girls) 2019-2024 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Hay Production Loruk Primary School 50,000 500 ( Boys 260, 240 girls) 2019-2022 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Apiculture Chepnyorgin Primary 30,000 290 (150 Boys, 140 girls) 2019-2025 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Page 27 of 30 Remarks: Resources required, Available resources, Contribution of each stakeholder 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions Food interventions Sub county Population Proposed Percentage of people in need Remarks Modality ( Wards) Tiaty 168,703 20-25 Baringo North 118,797 10-15 Baringo South 106,722 10-15 Mogotio 60,962 5-10 Baringo Central 98,918 Eldama Ravine 149,594 Non-food interventions County Ward Intervention beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame HEALTH SECTOR Mass screening 80 sites BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 240,000 July-Oct Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat mogotio Integrated medical outreaches hotspot sites BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission July-Oct Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK 1.48M 480,000 July-Oct AGRICULTURE SECTOR Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers 8000HH -MOALF -Funds to fertilizers -technical personnel train farmers cost: 50 M -technical personnel train farmers 1 year Water Harvesting for household security- Farm ponds and equipping existing 10000HH Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Irrigation, Funds, Technical personnel Cost:1bn Technical personnel 2018- Page 28 of 30 irrigation schemes Baringo County Government, Development partners Harvest technologies promotion 20,000HH MOALFI, Baringo County Government and stakeholders Funds cost: 10m Technical staff One year Support youth engagement Agribusiness project youth groups Agribusiness County Government of Baringo Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, WFP, Funds 24m Technical officers December Control through sensitization supply demonstration Materials and training (Traps, pheromones, chemical sprayers) Households Baringo County Government-Department of Agriculture Plant Protection services department(PPSD) 3Million Technical Officers July- December LIVESTOCK SECTOR BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Provision of pasture seeds 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. Govt.(RPLRP) Dec, 2019 Mogotio, Marigat(Blue tongue) areas (FMD) Disease control(vaccinations against, RVF,CCPP Disease surveillance Countywide National government Development partners Dec, 2019 -Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio 41,500 HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,2012 county harvesting baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Dec,2012 WATER SECTOR Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units 2640HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Page 29 of 30 Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Roof Water harvesting structures 10,000ltrs PVC tanks Vulnerable Institutions Communities. BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, FINN CHURCH months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Stock piling of Fast- Moving Spares community water supplies 1200HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Water Bowser servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision counties BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Capacity building on Water Management Catchment protection Whole county BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, CIM months Across livelihoods in vulnerable Wards Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas 2300HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, CIM 1 - 5 yrs Community Water Supplies in Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Construction Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies 3800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs Page 30 of 30 Potential sites within county serve the low lands Construction of 4Small dams for domestic and irrigation water use 12,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 -5Yrs Community Water Supplies in Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Capacity building on Wash Water managementResources Mobilization Conflict resolution management Catchment protection 1600HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs EDUCATION SECTOR County wide Roof water harvesting in schools schools pupils students) Ministry water, Ministry of Education. NDMA , Rift valley water works development Authority 6,760,000 1,300,000 2019- County wide School meals programme in primary schools 336 schools (80,704 pupils ) Ministry Education 66,580,800 County wide School meals nutrition programme in 51,320 (25,621 boys, 25,699 girls) Ministry Education, County government, County educational vocational training department 92,376,000 16,000,0002019-",
        "Baringo_LRA_2024.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2024 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Technical Steering Group (CSG)1 July 2024 1Leah Sang, Losenge Koolic, Esther Barasa (NDMA),Ann Kimwa (Health), Lily Rotich (Livestock), Susan Mitei (Education), Wesley Chemjor (Agriculture), Henry Nyamweya (Water), Fridah Limo (DRM) and Irene Maasai (Children Proetcion). Page i of 25 Executive Summary The 2024 long rains food and nutrition assessment was conducted by Baringo County sector working groups with visual support from Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment covered four main livelihood zones namely Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Irrigated Cropping and Mixed farming. The main objective was to assess the impact of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season considering other shocks and hazards and provide recommended interventions for response. Several parts of the county generally received above average rainfall of about 126 140 percent of the normal during the 2024 MAM season. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandits were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way or another by the recent flood occurrences causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. Acreage under irish potatoes increased by 117 percent while area under maize, beans and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The projected yields for maize and beans are likely to decline by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent respectively. Area under irrigated crops significantly increased due to sufficient water for irrigation. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total of 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in 93 hay stores, which have a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households in Tiaty had poor food consumption, while 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns. Additionally, 11 - 13.7 percent of households had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. The indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Page ii of 25 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... i 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm ............................................................................................................ 3 3.1.1 Crop Production ........................................................................................................... 3 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 5 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning .................................................................................... 9 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 12 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns ............................................................................ 14 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity.................................................................. 15 5.3.1 Food Interventions ...................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Page 1 of 25 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population 749,000 persons (2024 projections Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided seven sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed, Mixed farming-Horticulture and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages, floods and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Methodology, Objective and Approach KFSSG normally conducts bi-annual food and nutrition security assessment in the 23 ASAL counties in Kenya. The 2024 long rains food and nutrition security assessment was conducted in July 2024 with main objective being to assess the impact of March to May 2024 rainfall performance, determine the impacts of other shocks and hazards in Baringo County and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The assessment adopted multiagency and multisector approach. The assessment process used both qualitative and quantitative survey methods in data and information acquisition. Desktop review from various reports, Kenya Health Information System (KHIS), SMART Survey and checklists were used to gather secondary data while key informants, focus group discussion and observation were used to collect primary data. The process commenced with an initial County Steering Group (CSG) meeting held 9th July 2024, followed by a field transect drive across the county on 10th and 11th July 2024. The KFSSG and technical CSG members analyzed both quantitative and qualitative data collected from various sources. Based on the convergence of evidence, the food security and nutrition report for the county including possible recommendations and a 6-month food security prognosis was produced. The preliminary findings of the assessment were presented to the CSG on Thursday, 19th July 2024 at Chamastar Hotel, Kabarnet in Baringo County. Marginal Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Pastoral Agro Pastoral Figure 1: Population Proportion Per Livelihood Zone Page 2 of 25 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The 2024 March-April-May rainfall season had timely onset occurring during the third dekad of March 2024. amounts characterized with storm water especially in the third dekad of April and first dekad of May 2024. Enhanced rainfall, above normal levels (126 140 percent of the normal), was observed in several parts of the county. Localized areas in Baringo North, Baringo South, and Tiaty recorded normal rainfall (111 125 percent of the normal) based on satellite imagery from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), as shown in Figure 2. Spatial distribution was even and frequency was good across the livelihood zones of the county. Cessation was earlier than normal which was experienced during the first dekad of May 2024 as opposed to normally third dekad of May. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Banditry attacks and cattle rustling were experienced during the season in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wards in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. The conflicts have led to closure of schools, limited access to grazing fields, crop farms and even loss of lives and livelihoods. Subsequently, these events have negatively affected food security in hotspot areas. In response, Operation Maliza Uhalifu, a joint security operation involving the National Police Service and Kenya Defense Forces personnel has been ongoing in disturbed areas alongside community peace dialogues supported by the government and partners. 2.3 Floods and Flash Floods Heavy downpours were experienced, resulting in the overflow of rivers such as Molo, Perkera, Kerio, Wasekes, Olarabal, Nginyang, Emining, and Endao. Moreover, due to the sustained increase and rise in water levels from lake Baringo and 94, Baringo county has experienced serious flooding. Baringo County floods assessment report conducted in May 2024 revealed that 2,352 households were affected by the flooding situation. Approximately 1,955 households were completely displaced, with 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households, while 397 households partially affected. A total of Figure 2: Rainfall Performance (percentage) Page 3 of 25 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way of another by the recent flood occurrences, causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Household productive assets had been submerged in Baringo South, especially areas of Saruni, Ntepes, Loldama, Lemargwenyi, Lkeper, Ldarpoi, Naregare, Maasai, Kailer, Eldume, Leswaa, Sitaan, Ilpunyaki, Rine, Meisori, Kabikoki, Salabani, Murda, Sororwo, Longewan, Torkole, Rugus, Nosukuro, Nguraa, Iti. Floods affected 2,250 of acres of maize, water melon, onions and tomatoes. The flooding destroyed six (6) foot bridges, four (4) culvertsslaps, 31 road networks and 12 drainage works. 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Acreage under rainfed and irrigated crops was near normal to above average. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average. Farmers have maize stock which are below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. Conserved pasture in form of hay in stores is also below the total storage capacity. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. 3.1.1 Crop Production The county is dependent on long rains season for rainfed crop production and even for irrigation. The main food crops grown in the county include maize, beans, millet, potatoes, cowpeas, and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (coffee, cotton, macadamia, and pyrethrum). In the Agro-pastoral Zone, maize contributes 90 percent, beans contribute 85 percent, and finger millet contributes 60 percent to food crop production. In contrast, in the Irrigated Zone, tomatoes, watermelons, and seed maize each contribute 90 percent to income (Table 1). Table 1: Contribution of Crops to Income and Food Livelihood Zone Income Agro-pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Seed maize Page 4 of 25 Rain-fed Crop Production Acreage planted for Irish potatoes increased by 117 percent attributed to more investor supporting Irish potatoes production while area under maize, bean and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The early onset of the rains coupled with heavy downpour made ploughing difficult. The most affected sub-counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Central, South and Tiaty. The projected yields for maize and beans are lower by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent compared to the long-term average production during the short rains season respectively. The decrease is attributed to heavy downpour in mid-April which affected planted crops by nutrient leaching hence affecting crop growth in all parts of the county. In addition, fall army worm affected 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county, this was because of the dry spell. However, the expected yields for irish potatoes and sorghum is projected to be higher by 98.2 percent and 25.7 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 2: Rain-fed Crop Production Area planted during 2024 Long rains season (Ha) Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season 2024 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 40,465 39,618 801,540 992,950 Beans 20,894 20,244 93,068 161,952 Sorghum 1,690 1,685 25,425 20,220 Irish Potatoes 3,900 1,800 354,820 179,000 Irrigated Crop Production The area planted for irrigated crops increased for various crops, for instance, maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize increased by 650, 217, 168 and 3.4 percent respectively. The increase in acreage planted is attributed to sufficient water for irrigation coupled with expansion of irrigation schemes in Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The yields are expected to increase by 591, 217, 168 and 16.4 percent for maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize respectively (Table 3). About 80-90 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was utilized due to high water volumes in the rivers. Men are the income earners from the crops, while women and youth managed the crops. Table 3:Irrigated Crop Production planted during Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during rains season rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average years) production during rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 29,900 4,325 Tomatoes 6,500 2,050 Water melons 3,600 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 128,250 110,200 3.1.2 Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by all actor in the county are currently 36 percent lower than the long-term average. Farmers maize stock are 49 percent below the long-term average. The bulk of the stock is Page 5 of 25 held in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 60 percent, where few farmers did not dispose of their stock despite high prices. The National Cereal and Produce Board purchased 3,142 bags of 50kg each from farmers (Table 4). Local traders and millers have maize stocks higher than the long-term average by by 27 and 139 percent respectively. The increase is attributed to most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (posho millers) and also the looming crop failure in agro pastoral and decrease in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders to stock. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. The available maize stocks in the county is expected to last for 3 months, as opposed to the normal 4 5 months. Table 4: Quantities of Cereal Stocks Held Currently (90-kg bags) Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 140,431 276,686 Traders 44,338 34,928 1,056 Millers 19,997 8,382 Food AidNCPB 3142 14,400 Totals 204,766 319,996 2,010 1,059 6,945 1,004 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species reared in the county are cattle, goats, sheep and donkeys. Livestock contribute more cash income to households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at 88 and 50 percent respectively and approximately 20 25 percent contribution to food across all the livelihood zones (Table 5). Table 5: Livestock contribution to food and income per livelihood zone Livelihood Zone Food (Percent) Income (Percent) Mixed farming Irrigated Cropping Agro-Pastoral Pastoral The above average performance of the last two consecutive seasons (2023 short rains and 2024 long rains) had resulted to significant improvement in forage condition and water recharge across the livelihood zones. Subsequently, livestock trekking distances drastically reduced leading to improved livestock productivity. Pasture and Browse Situation The current condition for forage condition is good across all the zones which is attributed to enhanced rainfall that characterized by even and good distribution both in space and time. However, localized pockets in pastoral zones of Kwokototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to an invasive weed such as santa maria fever few (Parthenium Hysterophorus) and Prosopis Juliflora in Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Pasture that was established last year is being harvested in Agro- Pastoral and Mixed Farming areas though the yields are low. Those which were established this year is actively growing and at piping stage. The available pasture and browse are expected to last 3 months and 6 months in all the zones but depending on the performance of June July August 2024 off season rains. Page 6 of 25 Table 6: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Insecurity Good Insecurity pastoral Mixed farming Good to Irrigated Cropping Good to Pasture Conservation The county has a total of 93 hay stores with Eldama Ravine, Baringo North and Baringo South having 30, 25 and 20 hay stores respectively. Notably, Tiaty sub-county, classified under the Pastoral livelihood zone, has no hay store. Currently, there are 1,684,000 bales of hay stored across these 93 hay stores, against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Each hay bales is estimated to weight approximately 15 kilograms and is priced between Ksh 200 and Ksh 300 per bale (Table 7). Table 7: Baled Hay Sub-county Stores Storage Capacity No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight (in Kgs) Average price per (Ksh) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 300,000 100,000 20 are held by KVDA 80 Held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 4,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. Eldama Ravine 1,800,000 1,200,000 80 by farmers 20 FCS Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 280,000 130,000 farmers community stores Mogotio 570,000 250,000 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The body condition of all livestock species currently ranges from good to fair (BCS 4 and BCS 3) across the livelihood zones, while camels are observed to have fair body condition in all livelihood zone. Goats generally have good body condition except in Pastoral livelihood zone, where their body condition is fair. The good to fair livestock body condition is attributed to gradual improvement in forage condition, water availability, reduced trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. However, there are some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zones (Tiaty East and Barwessa) with limited access to grazing fields due to insecurity has resulted in fair livestock body condition. The body Page 7 of 25 condition is expected to improve further following the ongoing off-season rains. The good body condition is likely to enhance household purchasing power, thus favourable terms of trade. Table 8: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood zone Cattle Sheep Camel Normal Current Normal Normal Normal Mixed farming BCS 4 Irrigated Cropping Agro-Pastoral Pastoral BCS 5 BCS 5 Note: BCS Livestock Body Condition Score BCS 1 Very Poor (Emaciated) BCS 2 Poor BCS 3 Fair BCS 4 Good BCS 5- Very Good Tropical Livestock Units (Average Number of Livestock) There was a reduction in TLUs among both the poor and medium-income household as a result of increased sales of livestock to pay for school fees and to meet other necessities at household level. Over the last 10 years, the TLUs across all the livelihood zones have decreased by half. The main factor leading to this decline include land sub-division, preceding drought and inadequate feed for livestock, primarily due to climate variability over the years. Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) by Household Income Groups Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Agro-Pastoral Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Mixed farming Birth Rate Birth rates are high for all livestock species due to the good performance of two consecutive rainfall seasons that supported improved rangeland resources both in quality and quantity thus driving high livestock productivity. Milk Production The production per cow per day is higher than the normal, mainly because of the good rains experienced from March to May, which improved feed availability across all livelihoods. Milk production was ranging between 4 and 7 liters per household per day compared to long-term average of 3 to 5 litres per household per day. In Pastoral livelihood, milk produced was 2 litres against a normal average of 1 litres. The production is expected to stabilize following the ongoing off-season rains, which will rejuvenate forage condition. Table 10: Milk Production, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Agro-pastoral 5 - 6 3 - 4 Mixed farming 5 - 7 4 - 5 Pastoral Irrigated cropping Page 8 of 25 Migration The livestock migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of pasture, water sources and insecurity tensions especially in Pastoral areas. Livestock animals are being driven from Tirioko, Toturkuna, Kokwototo to areas around Lake Baringo, Ruko conservancy and Laikipia County. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or invaded by Santa maria fever weed. Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next 3 months if the JuneJulyAugust offseason failed. Mortalities No unusual livestock mortalities were reported during the period under review, with normal mortalities reported by communities in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as a result of (Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia) CCPP in goats and Blue Tongue in Sheep. There were also incidences of livestock abortions in Mukutani and parts of Tiaty East suspected to be caused by vector agents. Water for Livestock The current sources of water for livestock include lakes, boreholes, water pans and rivers. The return trekking distances from grazing area to watering points are currently 1-2 km for Mixed farming and 2-4 km for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral. This distance is lower than normal due to good rains received from months of March to May 2024, which significantly recharged water sources. Open surface water sources are projected to last for 3-4 months. Factors limiting access to water are wild life, especially in areas around lake Baringo, insecurity in Pastoral zones and the salinity of some boreholes. Table 11: Water Availability and Access Livelihood Sources Return average distances (km) Expected duration to last (months) for each source Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Continuous Continuous Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Continuous Continuous pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore- holes Watering Frequency Currently, all livestock species are watered daily due to the availability of water in various sources attributed to enhanced performance of the last two consecutive rainfall seasons. These seasons supported the full recharge of water sources across all livelihood zones (Table 12). Table 12: Watering Frequency (No. of Days per Week) Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Page 9 of 25 Agro-pastoral Daily 2 days Daily Daily Daily Daily Pastoral Daily 2 days Daily Daily Daily Daily 3.1.4 Impact on Availability The enhanced rainfall performance supported improved rangeland resources which in turn led to good livestock body condition. This improvement has led to increased milk production, higher-than- average livestock prices and decline in food commodities prices, thereby driving favourable terms of trade for households. 3.2 Access Most of the markets in the county were operational, except for a few feeder markets in Tiaty constituency that were affected by insecurity. Maize prices dwindled and currently lower than the long-term average. Livestock prices for all species have increased due to good body condition. The terms of trade were favourable, as households bought more kilograms of cereals from the income obtained by selling one goat. 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning Market Operations The Main livestock markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk, Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, and Kalabata. Supply of livestock to these markets was mainly from local households within the county. For farm produce, Sirwa and Mogotio are the main market, with 40-60 percent of food items sourced locally. The majority of the markets are operational and well provisioned with both livestock and crop produce. Market Prices Maize price The prices for dry white maize have been declining since February 2024, attributed to 2023 short rains maize harvests in areas of Western Kenya and the South Rift. In addition, cross-border imports of maize by Kenyan traders Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda and South Africa have also led to reduction in selling prices of maize in Kenya. The current average retail price is Ksh 57 per kilogram of dry white maize. The current retail average price is 17 and 48 percent lower than the 2019 2023 and the 2023 averages respectively at the same period of the year (Figure 3). The maize prices are most likely to remain below the long-term average for the next 2-3 months, following the above average March to May 2024 rainfall season that supported enhanced crop production. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize Price Trend Page 10 of 25 Goat price The average retail price for a medium size goat as at June 2024 stood at Ksh 4,130 which was 59 percent above the average for the same period from 2019 to 2023 (Figure 4). These above-average goats prices attributed to good body condition. Data from NDMA sentinel sites indicates highest prices reported in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh 5,167, while lowest observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 3,883. lowest prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone were attributed frequent insecurity incidents, which hindered access major livestock markets. With the ongoing off-season rains from July to August 2024, rangeland conditions are expected to further improve, potentially leading to higher than normal goat selling prices. 3.2.2 Terms of Trade The goat to maize ratio among rural households have maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year. This indicates favourable terms of trade for Pastoral households due to enhanced purchasing power. ascending trend has been linked to increasing goat prices and declining maize prices across the livelihood zone. Currently, rural households on average, were able to buy 72 kilograms of maize from income obtained by selling one medium sized goat. The current goat to maize ratio is 76 percent higher than the 2019 to 2023 average and 177 percent above the 2023 average at the period of the year Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Average Goat Price Trends Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kilograms of Maize Exchanged for a Goat Figure 5: Household Terms of Trade Page 11 of 25 (Figure 5). The terms of trade is projected to sustain above average trend through end of December 2024. 3.2.3 Income Sources The main income varied across the livelihood zones, with livestock production being the main income sources for households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones. In Pastoral livelihood zone, livestock production immensely contributes 88 percent to income and 50 percent in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Cash crop production is the main income sources (59 percent) in irrigated Cropping while in Mixed farming cash crop production and casual waged labour is relied by 30 percent and 20 percent of the households for income respectively. 3.2.4 Water access and availability (including cost consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of these water sources are concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones, where the potential is higher compared to Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods, which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Water is more accessible in Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Open water sources like rivers, water pans, springs, streams across the county in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 70-80 percent normally. The available water in these zones is likely to last for five to six months as compared to the normal three to four months. In irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, rivers were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity. The available water is expected to last for five to six months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans across all livelihood zones is stable as a result of the enhanced rainfall performance. Presently, 90 - 95 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones with some few which are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. For example Kamurio borehole, Kongor borehole, Kamar Borehole, Chebinyiny borehole, Kirim borehole, Kipkandule borehole and Barkipii borehole are among those affected. Additionally, Chemarikitich, Chepkitip, Katungura, Sirya Water Pans were reported to have been silted. In isolated cases, there were exceptional water quality challenges along eastern and the western valleys of Baringo county for underground water sources due to high fluoride levels. Distance to Water Sources The average distances to domestic water sources were below normal at 3 to 4.5 km in pastoral and 3 to 3.5 km in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 5 6 km. The distances were below normal at (0 - 1.5Km) in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zones. Waiting Time at the Source The waiting time at the common water source is stable and projected to reduce drastically in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the LTA if the current off-season rainfall will continue. In Mixed farming livelihood zone, the waiting time is between 1 2.5 minutes which is below normal. In pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas it was between 2.5 and 3.5 minutes, also below normal, which is attributed to the abundant water availability in most water sources. It was lowest in irrigated zone at 0-2 minutes. Cost of Water and Water Consumption Page 12 of 25 Water from open water source was free, while the cost of water from developed sources remained stable at Ksh 3 to 5 across all livelihood zones. Water vending reduced with few vendors selling water on average at Ksh 20 per 20 liters jerrican. Water consumption per person per day is above normal at 25-30 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20 to 25 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zone compared to normal. Water quality surveillance is highly recommended in key hot spots areas of Irrigated, Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Esageri, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaan. Loboi, Kamar for water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of water quality challenges. Table 13: Households Trekking Distance, Waiting Time and Water Consumption Livelihood Zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20 litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 0 1.5 1.5 - 3 3 5 3 5 1 2.5 3 - 5 25 - 30 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 0 - 2 1 - 2 25 - 30 15 - 20 Agro-pastoral 3 3.5 3 - 4 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 Pastoral 3 4.5 4 5.5 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food Consumption Food consumption score is a proxy indicator for food security, that captures household diet and consumption frequency over a seven-day period. consumption patterns varied across the livelihood zones. The SMART Survey data revealed that the proportion of households that consumption significantly reduced in Tiaty to 7.8 percent from 31 percent reported in last year SMART Survey. The shift is attributed to milk availability and improved household purchasing power. Poor FCS means households were consuming staples vegetables daily and never or very seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. Currently, 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption (Figure 6). Acceptable food consumption implies that household are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses, and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. 31.0 11.4 13.7 18.0 86.7 88.0 78.5 52.0 Baringo NorthSouth Borderline Acceptable Figure 6: FCS Page 13 of 25 Milk Consumption The current average milk consumption per household is lower than normal in some livelihood zones because farmers prefers to sell to get cash for supporting other basic requirements. Consumption was 1 litre per household in Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming against 1.5 2 litres normally. In Pastoral livelihood zones, consumption averaged 1.5 litres, which is higher than the normal 1 litre. Milk prices are currently lower than the long-term averages because of increased supply of milk in all the zones. Milk prices are currently ranging between Ksh 45 60 per litre compared to the normal range of Ksh 50 - 80. Most of the milk originates from Mixed farming zones of Mogotio and Eldama Ravine (Table 10). 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) is an indicator used to compare the hardship faced by households due to a shortage of food. The index measures the frequency and severity of food consumption behaviors that households had to engage in response to food shortage over the 7 days preceding the survey (VAM WFP). SMART Survey data collected in July 2024 showed that the food related coping mean index declined to 7.7 in Tiaty from 17.6 and to 6.2 from 10.8 in Baringo North and South sub-counties (Figure 7). Sentinel site data from NDMA revealed that about 65.2 percent of the households applied stress consumption coping strategies to overcome hardships faced due to shortage of food. Those that used crisis and above strategies were 17 percent and only 17.8 percent of the households reported not engaging in any food related coping strategies. Baringo North South Mean rCSI Figure 7: Mean rCSI Page 14 of 25 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns During the 2024 long rains season, no unusual diseases outbreak was reported across the county. However, common endemic illnesses that were reported for under five years and adult population include Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea across all livelihood zones. Diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level, which was attributed by most households consuming untreated water. The URTI is lower in all age cohort in 2024 compared to previous year. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6 59 months reduced to 82 percent in 2024, compared 87 percent during the same period in 2023. The reduction is due to difficulties in accessing children in hard to reach areas because of insecurity. Also, the scaling down of outreach programs and displacement of households by floods hampered access to routine health services. Morbidity 5 YRS Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) Diarrhoea Malaria Morbidity Under five DISEASE Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) DISEASE Diarrhoea DISEASE Malaria Figure 8: Morbidity Reported Cases Page 15 of 25 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity According to SMART survey conducted in July 2024 for Tiaty West and Tiaty East sub-counties, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. The reduction in GAM rates in could be attributed intervention put in place Baringo County Government with support partners. However, GAM rates still remained high, indicating a Critical phase and Poor phase in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively. NDMA data for June 2024 indicated that approximately 20.3 percent of the children aged below five year are at risk of malnutrition based on Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurements. The current proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is 17 percent higher than long term average for the same time of year (Figure 9). 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The proportion of households accessing drinking water from improved sources stands at 35.3 percent for households in Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties, which is a decline compared to 51.6 percent recorded during the same period in 2023. About 22.1 percent of the households in Tiaty access drinking water from safeimproved sources, a decrease from 31.4 percent in 2023. Majority of households reported not treating drinking water, with 76.9 percent in Baringo North and South and 98.2 percent in Tiaty. Latrine coverage was 64 percent in Baringo North and South while it was only 8.7 percent in Tiaty (SMART Survey, 2024). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 Proportion of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good - Fair Average Return trekking distance (kilometres) 0.5 - 4 0 4.3 Water consumption (litres per person per day) 12 - 25 20 - 30 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing 0.5 - 4 1 - 4 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in upper Limit lower limit Figure 9: Proportion of children U5 at Risk of Malnutrition Page 16 of 25 Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 Coping strategy index Food consumption score 3.5 Education Baringo county has 845 public ECDE centres with an enrolment of 42,832 children (22,322 boys and 20,504 girls), private ECDE centres are 107 with an enrolment of 8,557 (4,256 boys and 4,302 girls). There are 745 public primary schools with enrolment of 160,988 (82,496 boys and 78,292 girls) while private primary schools are 102 with an enrolment of 17,294 (8,605 boys and 8,689 girls). Public secondary schools are 189 with an enrolment of 56,838 (28,764 boys and 28,074 girls), 5 private secondary schools having 1,073 learners (538 boys and 535 girls), public junior secondary school are 536 with an enrolment of 29,765 (boys 15,320, girls 14,437) and private junior secondary schools are 39 with an enrolment of 2,030 (boys 1,036, girls 994). The total number of learners in our basic learning institutions are 217,278 learners (boys 111,931, girls 105,347). The schools are distributed as follows: Table 15: SchoolsInstitutions per Sub-county Sub-county Centres public centres private Primary Schools public Primary Schools private Secondary Schools public Secondary Schools private public private Tiaty East Tiaty West Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio Baringo Central Eldama Ravine TOTAL 3.5.1 Enrolment There was an increment in population of 409 children in ECDE centers, 1,161 pupils in primary schools, 416 in JSS and 10 students in secondary schools. This was because of introduction and enhancement of school meals program in primary schools and ECDE centers. In secondary school, the increment is because of the 100 percent transition and the availability of bursaries. Cases of school dropouts were reported in the county. In ECDE centers, a total of 26 children (14 boys and 12 girls) dropped out due to nomadismdistance from school. In primary schools, a total of 58 student (32 boys and 26 girls) dropped out for various reasons; for boys, it was due to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurityviolence, nomadism and chronic illness; for girls, it was due to teenage pregnancies, child labour, nomadism, insecurityviolence, psychological trauma and illness. In secondary schools, the number of dropouts is 72 students (42 boys and 30 girls). The reason for dropout for boys is lack of fees, indulgence into boda boda business, insecurity, child labour, and truancy. For girls, the reasons were lack of fees, insecurity, teenage pregnancies, early marriages and insecurity. Page 17 of 25 3.5.2 Effects of 2024 long rains (FLOODING) in schools The rains affected access to educational institution across the county. Although some institution were not flooded, they were marooned by flood waters, rendering them inaccessible. For instance, at Kiserian school, the learners needed a boat and a foot bridge to access the school. In Sandai and Loboi, learners needed foot bridges for them to cross over the swollen lake Bogoria to reach their respective schools. In other cases, heavy rainfall resulted in rock falls and landslides that blocked access to schools, as was experienced in Eitui, Kaplel, Tabagon in Baringo Central and Sangarau in Baringo South and Kipngorom in Mogotio. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.3 School Feeding In-kind meals were provided in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North, Mogotio and Baringo South sub-counties targeting 146,574 learners. The county has a cash transfer or HGSMP for Baringo Central targeting 29 schools, with a combined 530 learners (boys-250, girls-.300). Koibatek and Baringo Central sub-counties benefited from none of these programs, implying that about 57,594 learners were not having access to feeding programs. A number of public ECDE pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the parents, while the county government has rolled out a pilot ECDE Meals programme covering over 6,000 children in 148 selected centres across the county. This will start in a later date when funds will be availed by the county government. Measures put in place for handling and storage of food include; all the cooks are required to have medical certificates, clean water is used for food preparation, presence of food stores which have been fumigated and stacks for food storage, and lastly cooks wear proper dressing (aprons and headgears). Table 16: School Feeding Program Under SMP Without SMP School Girls Total Girls Total Pre school Primary 146,574 57,594 3.5.4 Inter Sectoral links where available There were migrations and displacement of households in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North because of insecurity, thus affecting school attendance. During this period, absenteeism tends to decrease in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming zones due to improved water availability, though school-going children are asked by their parents to assist in the farms. In Mixed farming, not much change is expected. During the prolonged closure of schools cases of dropouts were high due to pregnancies and boys engaging in boda boda business. Some pupilsstudents became victims of retrogressive practices such as early and forced marriages, early pregnancies and engagement in child labour-like activities. In some cases, boys of school going age were involved in stock theft raids contributing to insecurity. 4.0 Food Security Prognosis 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions The county director of meteorology indicated that several parts of the county will receive off season rains through end of September 2024. Rangeland resources are projected to improve further across the livelihood zones and likely to last until the onset of the 2024 short rains seasons expected in October 2024. Page 18 of 25 Livestock body condition is anticipated to be good through end of the year hence likely to sustain above average selling prices in the markets. The expected 2024 long rains harvest is likely to support gradual decline in prices of food commodities in the markets. Water sources will likely recharge, potentially reducing the normal trekking distances for both households and livestock to water points. 4.2 Food Security Outlook for August October 2024 Food consumption patterns are likely be stabilize in the next three months across the livelihood zones. There is a likelihood of reduction in the proportion of household engaged in destructive coping strategies. The nutrition status for children under five is projected to either remain stable or decrease, as milk production is anticipated to increase due to ongoing kidding and calving. 4.3 Food Security Outlook for November 2023 January 2024 The expected 2024 short rains season is likely to rejuvenate the rangeland resources, subsequently triggering positive change in most of the food security outcome indicators. Food consumption patterns will likely improve further owing to projected crop harvests and milk availability. Improvements in livestock health and body conditions will result in seasonal increase in livestock prices hence further boosting household income. Improved livestock productivity will likely result in improved nutritional status for children under five. The enhanced situation is expected to drive improvement in food consumption, reduction in negative coping mechanism thus likelihood of improved nutritional status of children under five and other family members. 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of Findings The county received above average rainfall of about 126 140 percent of normal. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandit attacks were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Around 42 percent of the planted land has been affected by Fall army worm. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in the 93 hay stores against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales for the 93 stores. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households had poor food consumption in Tiaty and 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July Page 19 of 25 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. 5.1.3 Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Sub-county Ranking Sub-county (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Hotspot wards Tiaty East Poor pastures Malnutrition Insecurity Floods Livestock diseases Livestock migration Disruption of Markets Poor rainfall performance Tirioko Ribkwo Tiaty West Insecurity Malnutrition Disruption of Markets Livestock migration Poor rainfall performance Silale Tangulbei Korossi Baringo North Livestock diseases Insecurity Malnutrition Disruption of Markets Crop pests and diseases Saimo Soi Baringo South Floods Insecurity Malnutrition Livestock diseases Livestock migration Mukutani Mogotio Poor rainfall performance in some parts of Kamar Malnutrition Livestock diseases Crop pests and diseases Emining Baringo Central Good rainfall performance Crop pests and diseases Eldama Ravine Good rainfall performance Crop pests and diseases 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions 5.2.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Intervention No. of benefic iaries Implementer Impacts terms of food security (Ksh.) Frame Agriculture All sub- counties Saimo Soi, Bartabwa Sacho, , ChuroAmaya, Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus and Kisanana Resilient building program households 9,725 County Government Baringo, Restoration rehabilitation of livelihoods destroyed by DL 58.4 M June Baringo Central All wards Affruitation Program 3,000 Increased under fruits cover for environmental conservation and food security 3.2 M Page 20 of 25 counties Marigat, ogotio, Kabarnet, Kabartonjo, Eldama Ravine Promotion of farmer service centres County Government and WFP Improve access to inputs by farmers promote entrepreneurship 2023 - counties All wards Nutrition Sensitive Utilization initiatives 25,000 County Government Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household food nutrition security 300 M 2020 - Livestock Baringo South, ogotio, Eldama Zavine, Baringo Central, Baringo North All wards Provision of pasture certified seeds 10,000 BCGPartners Increased feeds for livestock for increased production August 2 024 counties Apiculture promotion Groups County Government, Increased honey production August Water Health and Nutrition health facilities. Selected ECDs Vitamin Supplementation 102,20 UNICEF, Hellen Keller, ChildFund Improved immunity Twice a year Health Facilities supplementation 77,000 County Government 0.9 M Routine Education Page 21 of 25 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions Table 18: Proportion of Population in Need of Assistance Sub-county 2023 LRA Food Security (Worst to Best) Population Estimated Proportion in Need of Immediate Food Assistance (percent) Per Sub-county 2023 SRA 2024 LRA Tiaty East 79,923 (19,980) 25 (11,980)15 Tiaty West 73,424 (18,356) 25 (11,014) 15 Baringo North 104,871 (12,584) 12 (10,487) 10 Baringo South 90,104 10,000 (11) 4,500 (5) Mogotio 91,104 10,000 (11) (0)0 Baringo Central 96,951 (2,908)3 (0)0 Eldama Ravine 129,535 (2950)2 (0)0 Total population in need of food assistance 37,980 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Intervention beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame Agriculture counties 1. Purchase distribution of Traditional value crops. 2. Construction of farm ponds 3. Supply of drip kits and multi- storey gardens vegetable seeds National Government, County Government WFP, ELRP, Staff Crops Post-harvest management Purchase distribution hermetic bags Purchase distribution solar driers National Government, County Government, development partners Staff 2024 - Livestock Baringo North Mogotio, Vaccination against LSD, CCPP, and PPR Deworming 100,000 cattle 270,000 goats 50,000 sheep Technical Staff Page 22 of 25 Baringo North, Tiaty West, Mogotio, Baringo South Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves 4,500 HHs MoALF, NDMA, other Partners Tiaty West East Loruk, Chura, Nginyang, Kolloa Renovationconstruction livestock Auction yards 13,000 HHs BCG, County Government Land, Staff counties Provision of certified pasture seeds 5,000 HHs BCG, County Government Land, Staff Water counties All wards Promotion of roof water harvesting structures Health and Nutrition counties Health Facilities Intensify mass screening and referrals Under-fives from hotspot areas 1.2 M Staff and Tools Dec 2024 counties County Deworming 83,066 children (1 5 Years) BCG MOH 1.66 M Staffs Dec 2024 Education",
        "Baringo_LRA_2023.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2023 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2023 The 2023 long rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the onset of the long rains of 2023. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was observed in the second dekad of March which was normal and the amount received were normal totaling 91-121 percent of normal. Temporal distribution was fair to good while the spatial distribution was fairly even. The season ceased in the third dekad of May which was normal. Insecurity incidents were reported in parts of Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties but were contained. Other shocks were high food prices, crop pests, crop failure and livestock diseases. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture was above long term mean (LTA) but the projected yield will be below LTA with maize accounting for 74 percent of LTA. Acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and the projected yield will be above LTA for most of the crops. Cereal stocks for farmers were extremely below LTA but for traders and millers, the stocks were above LTA due to high demand. Forage conditions were fair to good across the livelihood zones, with Pastoral areas experiencing pasture deficit. Livestock body condition was fair to good for various livestock species while milk production was fair. Milk consumption was below LTA while the milk prices were above LTA. Livestock prices were improving and were within the seasonal range while cereal prices were still very high compared to LTA. Terms of trade were below the LTA and outside seasonal range. The main water sources were normal while the trekking distances were slightly above LTA in the Pastoral areas and normal in other livelihood zones. Waiting time at water sources and water consumption per person per day remained normal. The most common disease was upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) for both children and adults. The county had acceptable food consumption score though the Pastoral areas had the majority of the sampled households not having acceptable food consumption score. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none copping, stressed and crisis food based coping strategies respectively while 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households applied crisis, stressed and none copping livelihood based coping strategies respectively. Tiaty East and West sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage at eight percent while hand washing practices were fairly fair across the livelihood zones. Malnutrition levels were still critical with a GAM rate of 23 percent while children at risk of malnutrition was above LTA at 22 percent. When comparing the previous term and the current term, there was a marginal decline in school enrolment at ECDE and primary level while at the secondary level, there was a slight improvement in enrolment. Most of the ECDE and primary schools had access to school feeding program. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase two (Stressed) whereby Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three, Agro-Pastoral zone was in phase two while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ ii 3.1.1 Crop production ......................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereal stocks .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 Livestock production ................................................................................................................. 9 3.2.1 Market prices ........................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 18 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 22 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns ........................................................................................... 23 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .................................................................... 24 3.3.3 Nutrition status ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................................ 29 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 32 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season .................................................................... 33 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ......................................................................... 33 3.5.4 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 33 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 37 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ................................................................................................................. 37 5.2.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 38 5.2.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 39 5.3. Recommended interventions ......................................................................................................... 44 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 44 5.3.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 45 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub- Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2023 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2023 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2023 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2023 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th -18th July 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical Mixed farming Agro-Pastoral Marginal Mixed Figure 1: Population based on livelihood zones teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season took place during the second dekad of March which was normal. The amount of rains received during the season were normal with Tiaty East, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and parts of Baringo South receiving 111-125 percent of the normal rains while the rest of the county including Baringo North, Baringo Central and Parts of Baringo South sub counties receiving 91-110 percent of the normal rains. In terms of temporal distribution, the peak of the season was observed in the second dekad of April while in the month of May, there was a significant decline in the amount of rains received which were below normal compared to the long term mean (LTA). The spatial distribution was relatively even across the county although there were some pockets in Tiaty which include Silale and Tirioko wards which had uneven distribution. The season ceased normally during the third dekad of May although the county did receive some significant rains in the month of June (Figure 2). The county also got off-season rains in the third dekad of June. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Baringo County is among conflict prone areas in the ASALs of Kenya, which has a long history of cattle rustling which dates back to 1970s. It has transformed from traditional practice to the current criminal militarized activity. The root cause of perennial conflict in Baringo is majorly resource conflict aggravated by proliferation of small firearms, successive political incitements, severe drought, cultural practices, economic marginalization and scarcity of resources (such as productive land, water and good infrastructure). These conflicts result in loss of lives, loss of 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo County-Jan - Dec 2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall performance property and livelihoods, displacement of people and lead to poverty. It also leads to closure of critical facilities for example schools, dispensaries, roads, markets and destruction of water points and irrigation schemes. During drought spells, rising tension and sporadic attacks over shared resources increase at the following hotspots; Baringo South sub county - Mukutani, Mochongoi, Arabal, Kiserian, Kasiela, Rugus, Lomaiwe, Ngelecha, Chebinyiny, Noosukuro, Tuyotich, Sinoni and Kapendasum. Baringo North sub county-Yatya, Kagir, Chemoe, Ngaratuko, Kinyach, Kaborion, Kapturo, Kesumet, Chepkisin, Kalabata and Kinyach. Tiaty East and West sub counties- Nadome, Kapedo, Koloa, Loruk, Amaya, Lemuyek, Makutano, Kositei, Kipnai and Loiwat. SamburuBaringo county border - Longewan and Losuk . Baringo-Laikipia border - Olmoran LNC. These conflicts result to communities being pushed to move to safer places with their cattle or livestock thus increased incidences of drought related livestock diseases such as CCPP, FMD, LSD, ECF etc. During these times families are separated, early pregnancies, malnutrition cases and school drop outs. Loss of livelihoods and depletion of water sources is also reported. During the season under review, approximately 3,982 households were affected and interfering with their seasonal activities. The conflict affected Baringo North, Baringo south and Tiaty sub counties. Shelters of some of the affected households were razed to ashes while others were broken into. Unspecified number of populations have either been integrated with their relatives and neighbors in safer nearest villages. No IDP camp has been set up though hosting families have cited congestion in their houses requiring humanitarian support. (Situation report July 2023, by Baringo County Disaster Risk Management). All school which were previously temporary closed due to insecurity have been opened (Kapendasum, Arabal, Kasiela, Kagir and chepkesin primary schools) in Baringo South and North. The impacts of conflict with respect to food security in the afore-mention areas include; reduced potential land acreage earmarked for crop production (Embosos, Ol arabal Mukutani irrigation schemes, Mochongoi, Kerio valley), failed farmers extension services, infrastructure vandalism, suspended development partners activities, declined market operations and displacement of population. Following the socioeconomic effects of cattle rustling in Baringo county, the following measures will go into arresting the escalating situation; The pastoralists be encouraged to practice livelihoods diversification, increased water points and pasture development in various places, tackle invasive species in their grazing fields, regular peace meetings, enhanced road network, capacity building of grazing committees, enhance security patrols in hotspot areas mentioned above, forceful disarmament and the long term plan is to expand educational institutions in the areas of the aggressor and registration of community land as private land (individual title) or as community land under Community land Act 2016. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High cereal prices Cereal prices particularly for maize continued to be very high compared to the LTA hence limiting access to the vulnerable households. During the assessment period, maize prices retailed at more than 70 percent of the LTA and hence affecting terms of trade more so for the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral households. Hazards Crop failure Crop failure for the maize crop was mostly observed in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone due to the poor performance of the rains during the month of May whereby it ceased raining when the crops were at the most critical stage of grain fillingtussling. Crop pests Sporadic cases of fall army worms were observed across the county attacking maize crop in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and this may lead to significant crop loses. Livestock diseases The county experienced sporadic cases of livestock diseases which affected productivity. Some of the diseases prevalent in the county include CCPP, lumpy skin diseases PPR among others. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop production Introduction The long rains season is important for food and Nutrition security in the county as almost 80 percent of the countys food needs are derived from it. The season is relied upon for production of various food crops and in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. Even though the county received relatively normal rains in terms of amount, its distribution was erratic and hence affecting planting activities. Farmers planted at different times depending on the local onset of the season such that by the time the season was ending, crops were at different physiological stages. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Income Agro pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Seed maize Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture planted during rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Long rains season (Ha) rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Long rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 45,786 39,718 732,576 992,950 2. Beans 23,267 20,244 93,068 161,952 3. Sorghum 1,695 1,685 13,560 20,220 4. Irish Potatoes 3,906 1,800 156,750 179,000 The area planted with maize crop was 115 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this was due to enhanced campaigns to farmers to increase acreage following weather forecast messaging which had indicated that the season was likely to be normal. In Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, maize crops were exhibiting moisture stress as a result of early cessation of the rains which happened when the crops were at their most critical stage of grain filling and tussling and therefore there are high chances of crop failure. Crop failure rates for maize are estimated to be 30 percent in Eldama Ravine, 85 percent in Mogotio, 45 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 65 percent in Baringo South- and 25 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is expected to be 55 percent. However, areas along Tugen hills, Mochongoi and upper parts of Eldama Ravine, the maize crop is relatively in good condition and farmers are likely to realize 50 to 70 percent of their normal yield. There were cases of infestation by field pests, whereby 46 percent of the area planted was affected by Fall army worms reported in all sub counties, and this was aggravated by the dry spells that occurred within the season. The projected yield for maize crop is expected to be 74 percent of the LTA in the upper areas of the county. The area under sorghum production was almost normal compared to the LTA and the projected yield is 67 percent while area put under potatoes was 217 percent of LTA and the projected yield is 88 percent of LTA. The area put under beans production was 114 percent of LTA but the projected yield will be 58 percent of LTA and this was attributed to poor temporal distribution of the rains which led to flower abortion. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. Irrigated crop production Table 3: Irrigated crop planted during the 2023 Long rains season Long Term Average years) planted during rains season 2023 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 10,360 4,325 Beans Tomatoes 4,400 2,050 Water melons 3,000 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 99,750 110,200 The area under maize was above the LTA by 171 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers and lake Baringo (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi, Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river water flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 45 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth managed the crops while marketing was mainly undertaken by women. About 30-50 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. However, it should be noted that less than five percent of the countys population is involved in irrigated agriculture and that maize production from this zone contributes less than 0.5 percent of the countys average maize production in the season under review. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 42,745 290,864 3,947 Traders 78,833 34,928 1,056 2,998 Millers 20,902 8,382 AidNCPB 1,242 Totals 142,480 334,174 1,059 6,945 1,004 Households The stock held by households is below LTA by 86 percent (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 55 percent whereby few farmers didnt dispose their stock even though the prices were high. National Cereal and Produce Board also did not purchase maize from farmers but with the currently high prices, farmers are releasing their stocks. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they sold their stock to purchase inputs for the long rains season. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but the available stocks may last for less than a month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones, there were no stocks. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA by 225 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 85 percent of the households were dependent on the markets for their food supply, and this was more pronounced in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers The local millers stocks were higher than the LTA by 249 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). Other factors such as the looming crop failure and high cereal prices also motivated millers and traders to acquire more stocks. Traders and millers had more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the households rely mostly on markets in accessing food. Post harvesting issues So far, the county is yet to experience food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels since harvesting is still going on. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The long rain period in the County is very important for pasture and fodder production, which is much relied by the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral communities as their main source of feed for livestock. Agricultural byproducts, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important component of livestock feed. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry season and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county Contribution of livestock sector to both food and income in the household food security is as follows (Table 5). Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income SNo. Livelihood zone contribution income Mixed farming Irrigated Agro pastoral Impacts of March April May rains on Livestock In Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, the rains were poorly distributed which affected negatively pasture and browse recovery. The current forage conditions in these livelihood zones are generally fair to poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The livestock production potential during the season under review is still sub optimal due to poor rains, livestock diseases, among other factors. Pasture and browse situation Table 6: Forage conditions Forage conditions for both browse and pastures were in fair to good conditions across all the livelihood zones and this was not normal compared to the previous seasons as it ought to be in good conditions in a typical year (Table 6). The pastures are expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the pastures are likely to last for two months. The browse is likely to last for at least two months across the livelihood zones. The forage and browse were not in their normal conditions because of the erratic patterns of the long rains especially in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Forage access was being hampered by insecurity challenges in parts of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties. Livestock diseases also affected access to pasture resources in certain parts of the county especially in the pastoral livelihood zones. Invassive species particularly in parts of Kollowa, Silale, Tirioko and Ribko wards and parts of Baringo Pasture Browse Livelih Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Good 1 nflict Disease Good 2-3 nflict Disease Agro - urity urity Irrigate d zone Mixed farming flict flict South sub county were observed to be significant and they were responsible for displacing palatable pasture species hence affecting availability. The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus. Crop residues are an important source of livestock feed in the county particularly in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones especially during period of harvesting. As farmers embark on harvesting of their crops in the next one month, its expected that the crop residues will come in handy in supplementing livestock feeding. Moreover, livestock are likely to benefit from some of the failed crop especially maize which will be converted to livestock feed. Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture production (Table 7). The stocks levels ranged from one to five percent across the sub counties with only Eldama Ravine sub county having substantial stocks of about 17 percent of their storage capacity. Most of the stocks are being held by farmers and their prices were within the normal range. Price stability was attributed to availability of the natural forage which were fairly in good conditions. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feed Sub County No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo North 150,000 bales 2,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by farmer groups Baringo Central 100,000 3,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by farmer groups Baringo South 80,000 1,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by Mogotio 200,000 10,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by cooperatives Eldama Ravine 300,000 50,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by cooperatives Tiaty 10,000 12 - 15 No hay at the moment Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle was fair to good in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the body condition was good (Table 8). For the small stocks, the livestock body condition was fairly good across the livelihood zones. Compared to the previous assessment of the short rains, there was a notable improvement in livestock body condition following the onset of the long rains which led to improvement in forage and water availability. The livestock body condition may improve further if the county gets more rains in the month of August which will sustain the pastures and browse. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit In comparison to the previous assessment, the average TLU for both poor and medium income households remained almost the same at 3.6 and 7.2 respectively (Table 9). Compared to the LTA, the TLUs were below normal and this was as a result the cumulative impacts of failed rainfall seasons that were experienced in the county for the last three years. Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 Irrigated Cropping BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 Agro-pastoral BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 NB: BCS 1 Very PoorVery thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average NB: 1 TLU250kgs Milk Production and consumption Table 10: Milk production Milk production across the livelihood zones was less than the LTA although the production trend was improving due to the improving livestock body condition (Table 10). Milk consumption was also less than the LTA due to low production level while milk prices were above the LTA across livelihood zones with the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones having the highest price at Kshs 100litre. Livestock Migration The migration routes were mainly normal for now although the animals that had initially moved out of the county in search of pastures were yet to come back to their usual grazing sites as the forage conditions were yet to achieve full recovery. The current livestock migration routes include Churo-Amaya-Laikipia, Kolloa-Tirioko-West Pokot,Silale-Malaso-Turkana, Arabal- Akorioan-Sibilo. Cattle were the most affected species in terms of migration especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone whereby they were expected to be within their usual grazing sites but most of them were yet to come back. Projected livestock migration If the June-July-August (JJA) does not perform well, then escalation of livestock movement both within and outside the county is likely to pick up with more animals moving to Laikipia, West Pokot and Turkana counties. Livestock diseases and mortalities Contiguous Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Foot and Mouth disease (FMD), Lumpy skin disease (LSD), Mange, Sheepgoat pox and new Newcastle in poultry were the main livestock diseases prevailing in the county (Table 11) while livestock mortality rates were normal at two percent. Table 11: Livestock diseases Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Birth rate The general birth rates declined slightly during the period under review across all the livelihood zones as the forage conditions were not in good conditions during the conception period. The poor forage conditions had affected the body condition hence affecting the birth rates. Water for Livestock The main water sources for livestock were pansdams, borehole, rivers and springs across the various livelihood zones (Table 12). The average return distances from the water sources was normal in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones, the return distances were slightly above the LTA. The increased return distances in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was attributed to decline in the available water due to poor recharge and high evaporation of surface-based water sources due to the prevailing high temperatures. Table 12: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average distances (Km) Expected duration to last Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1 month Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs, bore holes Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1 month Throughout pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, traditional river wells Streams, water pans, Boreholes 1 month 3 months Bore-holes, water pans, traditional river wells Water-pans, Bore- holes, rivers 1 month 3 months Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination done Sub-county wise Sheep and goats Ring vaccination done Eldama Ravine Koibatek, LembusPekerra Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Baringo south Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases No vaccination done Kimorok Goats 30 cases No vaccination done Baringo North Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases No vaccination done Kimorok Goats 30 affected No vaccination done Rabies All wards No deaths 200 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Saimo- Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 22,000 livestock dewormed Livestock watering frequency In terms of watering frequency, it was normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, the watering frequencies was less than LTA (Table 13). Table 13: Watering frequency Livelihood Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping pastoral 3.1.4 Impacts on availability The long rains season is critical in food security in the county as it provides over 80 percent of the food requirements for its residents. Food availability is expected to stabilize in the next one month due to the expected crop harvest although the county will still experience some food deficit due to crop failures that were occasioned by poor rainfall distribution. Livestock productivity is also on a recovery path and therefore milk production is expected to contribute to food availability although production levels are not yet within the normal level, implying that milk consumption deficit will still continue to be felt in the next 1-2 months. Cereal stocks were still very low compared to LTA but this is expected to change in the next 1-2 months as households embark on harvesting of various crops in the county, a factor that is likely to enhance food consumption at the households. 3.2 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North sub county, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty East and West sub counties, Marigat and Kabel in Baringo South sub county, Majimoto and Emining in Mogotio sub county, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub county. All the markets were operational as they were well stocked with various commodities although cereal prices including maize were still very high compared to LTA. On the other hand, livestock prices were on an improving trend due to the ongoing recovery in livestock body condition for all species. The demand for livestock animals was higher than the supply as most farmers opted to keep their animals for fattening and reproduction following an improvement in forage conditions. There were less buyers for livestock in feeder markets found within Tiaty areas due to security tensions, a factor that was affecting supply of animals in major livestock markets such as Nginyang. As for the food commodities, most of the maize was coming from Uganda though some few stocks had started coming from neighboring counties such as Uasin Gishu, a factor that had started pushing down maize prices. The markets were well supplied with leafy vegetables, fruits and Irish potatoes whose prices had significantly gone down compared to the previous assessment and were being sourced from within the county. 3.2.1 Market prices Maize prices Maize prices did undergo a significant increment during the period under review, rising by 16 percent from March when the average price was at Kshs 94kg to Kshs 109kg by June (Figure 3). By June, the prices were higher than the short-term average (STA) at this time of the year by 77 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households were depending on retailers for the maize which was being sourced from the neighbouring counties. However, by July, the maize prices declined by 11 percent compared to June and this was attributed to the ongoing maize harvest both within the county and in the neighbouring counties and this trend may continue for the next two months. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 100 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg Goat prices During the period under review, there was a consistent goat price increment of 14 percent from an average of Kshs 2,565 in March to Kshs 2,920 in May (Figure 4). However, by June, there was a slight decline in the price by two percent compared to the previous month and was fetching at Ksh.2,869 per head and rose slightly to Kshs 2,950 by July which was above STA by 13 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,767 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The low prices in the Agropastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that has affected market operations. The improving price trend was attributed to improving body conditions in the county. Moreover, farmers were not under any 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - July 2023 Figure 3: Maize prices pressure to sale their animals as they opted to keep them for fattening and restocking due to availability of sufficient browse and livestock water 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (ToT) were below the LTA and falling outside the seasonal range for the entire assessment period, a factor that was contributed by high maize prices. As from March to May, there was some marginal improvement in the terms of trade due to the improvement in goat prices although these gains were lost in June as a result of increment in maize prices and a slight decline in goat prices. By July, terms of trade were at 30.7 which was an increase of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 5). This has been attributed to stable goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 35 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 43 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 22.2. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to decline due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and neighbouring counties Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - July 2023 Upper llimit Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 14. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. In the Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the crops were grown as cash crops which served as the main source of income Table 14: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Agro-Pastoral Irrigated Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells (Table 15). Normally, water sources are mainly concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming Kgs of maize bought from sale of a Terms of Trade - July 2023 Figure 5: Terms of trade and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Several open water sources were operating below their normal capacities whereby river Nginyang., Endao, Wasseges, Kakabul among others were almost dry. Water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo North sub counties were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally. In isolated cases, Kapkchelukuny water pans in Mogotio Sub-county were recharged close to their normal capacities The available water is likely to last for one to two months in Pastoral areas while in Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to at least 50 percent of their normal capacity was expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones was unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes were operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Table 15: Water sources Distance to water sources and waiting time The average distances to domestic water sources were stable at 3.5 to 4.5 km in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal (Table 16). The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5 km in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones with minimal increasing trends. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 1 - 3 minutes which is above normal while in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral areas it was between 3-5 minutes. Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operational No. of Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Normal Duration that water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Holes Over 6 Months months stable 2.Water 1 2 Months Months 30 - 40 3.Springs 1 - 2 Months Months 20 - 30 Agro - Holes Over 6 Months months stable Water 1 2 Months Months 20 - 30 3. Springs 1-2Months months 10 - 20 Mixed Farming Holes Over 6 Months months stable 2. Springs Over 3 Months Months 40 - 50 3.Rivers Over 3 Months Months 40 - 50 Irrigated Cropping 1. Rivers 3months months 20 -30 2.Shallow Wells 3-4months months Reducing Discharge 3. Swamps Over 3 Months stable Cost of water and Consumption Water was free at open water sources while the cost of water at developed water sources was generally stable at ksh.3-5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day was normal at 20 25 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone and 12-15 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zone compared to normal. About 10 20 percent of households in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria Table 16: Water distances, cost, time and consumption 3.2.5 Food consumption Food consumption score Ward livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Kshs. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3.5 4.5 3.5 - .4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 12- 15 12-15 3 3.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 12 - 55 11-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 15 - 20 20-25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 20-25 100.0 120.0 Acceptable Borderline Food consumption score Figure 6: Food consumption score During the season under review, a significant proportion of households within the Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption score whose score was between 31-40 percent (Figure 6). This was attributed to food consumption gaps that were prevalent in this zone following failed rainfall seasons in the last three years which affected livestock production, a sector that is a key source of food and income. In the Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the households had acceptable food consumption score. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) During the reporting period, households in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones were adopting more coping strategies as a way of adjusting to food consumption gaps that were being experienced by household members (Figure 7). This was due to the cumulative impacts of the previous failed rains which affected both food and livestock production. Among the strategies that were being applied include skipping of meals, reduced meal portions, consuming less preferred food stuff among others. Irrigated Agro pastoral Figure 7:CSI 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continued to be the leading cause morbidity county compared previous assessment. The number of children upper respiratory tract infection in 2022 was higher compared to the other years same period. The chart (Figure 8) shows recorded higher morbidity cases compared to 2022 among under five population. Morbidity for General Population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload and had the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases upper respiratory infections could be attributed to low immunity as well as the onset of the cold season in the high lands. Morbidity of Underfive years Figure 8: Morbidity in under five General population Morbidity for Genelal population Figure 9: Morbidity in general population Smart survey Morbidity based on SMART survey follows the same trends as the data from KDHIS (Figure 10). 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization 30.3 22.5 69.1 13.5 Morbidity patterns-Tiaty 24.7 16.0 80.7 12.6 90.0 Disease incidence- Baringo NS and South Figure 10: Morbidity-SMART SURVEY Opv 1 OPV 3 Measles Rubella 1 Imunization Coverge Figure 11: Immunization Data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2023 was above the national target of 80 percent as compared to 2022 same period (Figure 11). The data showed that all antigens were above the acceptable level of 80 percent coverage; this could be attributed to increase in intergraded Health and Nutrition outreaches in 2023 Vitamin A supplementation There has been an increase in Vitamin A supplementation and immunization coverage this year 2023, as compared to 2022 and 2021 (Figure 12). This increase could be attribute to increase in the number of outreaches supported by partners and Baringo county Government, and also continued support of Malezi Bora by partners. According to SMART Survey, Vitamin A coverage for children aged 6 11 months stood at 61.4 percent in Tiaty East and Tiaty West while it was 87 percent in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively (Smart Survey, 2023). 6 to 11Mths 12 TO 59 MONTHS 6 TO 59 Momths Vitamin A supplementation Baringo County Figure 12: Vitamin A supplementation Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding (OTP) The above chart (Figure 13) indicated that children attending OTP and SFP increased in the current year as compared to the same period last year 2022. This could be attributed to access to SFP and OPT programs through health and nutrition integrated Outreaches and availability of nutrition commodities. OTP PROGRAM Out-patient Feeding Program Baringo LTM (5-yr average) Trends of SFP program Baringo Figure 13: OTPSFP 3.3.3 Nutrition status Underweight proportion children (6-59 months) who were underweight was above the long-term average with the highest proportion percent compared to 8.2 percent in 2022 as seen in the chart (Figure 14) could attributed to cumulative decline nutrition status decreased availability of milk and increase of food prices over the last three years. Nutrition status based on GAM and SAM proportion children (6-59 months) found malnourished based on global acute malnutrition (GAM) reduced percent in 2022 to 23.3 percent in 2023, this could be attributed to intervention put in place Baringo Government, Department of Health support partners (Figure 15). However, GAM rates still remained high at Critical phase 10.05 Underweight trends Jan -June (2020 2023) Figure 14: Underweight Nutrition status Figure 15: GAMSAM Children at risk of malnutrition The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month of July was 20.19 percent (Figure 16). This was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 21.8. The current proportion was above the LTA by 30 percent. The relative improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo South sub counties. The situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition -July 2023 upper Limit lower limit Figure 16: Nutrition status by MUAC 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene Water sources According to the smart survey findings, the main water sources in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties were traditional river wells at 25 percent followed by boreholes at 15 percent (Figure 17). Hand washing practices According to the smart survey findings, over 90 percent of the household wash hands before eating with Tiaty leading at 97.7 percent (Figure 18). This was followed by washing hands after visiting toiled at 90.2 percent in Baringo North and South sub counties while Tiaty was at 37.7 percent. These habits have been sustained after COVID 19 pandemic. About 22 percent of the respondents washed hands with soap and water while 51.6 percent washed hands with water only. Compared to the previous assessment, there was a notable improvement in hand washing practices. Shallow Wells Springs Boreholes Rivers Traditional River Lakes Pans and Dams Sources Of Water In Baringo County Water sources Figure 17: Water sources Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine coverage July -Dec 2022 Coverage July to December 2023 Coverage Open defecation (bushes) () Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Baringo South Mogotio 45 Baringo North Tiaty West Tiaty East Tiaty sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County although there was an improvement when compared to the last smart survey done in 2022 (Table 17). The low coverage in Tiaty was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community and this has a negative impact on nutritional status due to possibility of upsurge of water related diseases that may affect food utilization Tiaty East and Baringo South North Figure 18: Hand washing 3.4 Food security trends Table 18: Key food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2023 Long rains assessment, July, 2023 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Agro-pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Good-Fair Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day Agro-pastoral 10-15 Agro-pastoral 11-15 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species 12-15 Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,446 2,950 Distance to grazing Agro-pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-17 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Pastoral-17.8 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 County-14 Agro-Pastoral-17 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Table 19: Enrolment Term I 2023 Term II 2023 Indicate Increase () Decrease (-) Enrollment Girls Total Girls Total 22,215 24,303 46,518 22,144 24,261 46,411 Primary 66,476 61,527 128,003 66,490 61,442 127,861 Junior Secondary 8,109 7,493 15,602 8,109 7,493 15,602 Senior secondary 27,075 26,786 53,861 27,688 26,689 54,384 Baringo comprises of 1,119 ECDE centers with an enrolment of 46,411 children with boys comprising of 22,144 and girls 24,267 in the current term (Table 19). Compared to the previous term, the enrolment was at 46,518 comprising of 22,215 boys and 24,303 girls. The decline (0.2 percent) in enrolment at ECDE level was attributed to delay in school meals Program supply, insecurity challenges in some parts of Baringo South, Tiaty and Baringo North sub counties, and transfer of pupils to other schools. There were 740 primary schools with a population of 127,861 pupils with boys comprising of 66,419 and girls 61,442 compared to the previous term of 128,003 with boys being 66,476 and girls at 61,527. The decline (0.1 percent) in enrolment was attributed to delayed school meals program, interintra county transfers, teen pregnancies, child labor among other reasons. In secondary schools, there were 189 schools with a combined enrolment of 54,384 students with boys being 27,688 and girls at 26,689 in the current term compared to the previous term of 53,861 with boys being 27,075 and girls at 26,786. The positive deviation in enrolment (one percent) was attributed to the 100 percent transition government policy, new admissions, availability of school meals programs, availability of bursaries and scholarships. Enrolment in Junior secondary schools was stable in comparison to the previous term. There were cases of dropouts in ECDE whereby a total of 107 children (71 boys and 36 girls) dropped out due to nomadism. In primary schools, a total of 142 students (57 boys and 85 girls) dropped out which was attributed to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurityviolence, nomadism, chronic illness, truancy and teen pregnancies. Whereas there was an increase in enrollment in secondary schools, some schools in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties experienced dropout and absenteeism due to lack of school fees, insecurities, pregnanciesearly marriage, transfers, lack of school fees, indulgence into boda boda business among other reasons. Note: There are 534 public Junior Secondary School JSS domiciled in primary schools totaling with total enrolment of 15,602 comprising of 8,109 boys and 7,493 girls. 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season The main water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water bowsers, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools with no access to safe water sources were 620 ECDE centers, 486 primary schools and 35 secondary schools. There were 678 ECDE, 468 primary schools 154 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting infrastructure and some of them applied chlorine to treat water. 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains and none of the school infrastructure was damaged during the review period. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the season under review, a number of students were affected by upper respiratory infections and were treated by health personnel. The students also benefitted from deworming and vitamin A supplementation from the Ministry of health. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and five secondary schools and number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and three secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits during the second term which were issued by the Government. There were cases of child labour prevalent among the vulnerable groups and occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 3.6 Child protection Baringo is one of the counties that experienced prolonged drought. As a measure to ensure the protection and response to child protection issues during emergencies questionnaires were provided to collect qualitative data on the effects of drought to children and the kind of child protection issues that emerged as a result of the drought. The data was collected by Child Protection Volunteers for the two days of field assessment the CPVs covered five out of the seven sub counties. They were able to cover Baringo North, Marigat, Tiaty East, Mogotio and Baringo Central to establishing the effects of drought to children and the child protection concerns that emerged. Child migration Out of one hundred and seventy (170) persons interviewed; 60 reported migration due to insecurity while 30and 10 reported famine and poverty. The children in this category moved out of Baringo County with their parents due sever consequence of drought. Most children who migrated from the county went to the following counties; Nakuru, Laikipia, Uasin gishu, Nairobi Family separation When analysis was done for status of separated children, 65 of the respondents are of the opinion that children are separated from their parent due to lack of food and other basic needs. 20 of the respondent reported separation necessitated by abuses and harsh environment at home. Child marriage and lack of parental support has been indicated by 15 by those who were interviewed. However, no cases of refugee children were reported Violence against children, GBV Due to drought there were cases of violence against children that were reported that included Sexual violence, Neglect cases, psychosocial violence, Child trafficking, corporal punishment and child labor.; Incidences of children and women engaging in transactional sex for commodities like food, sanitary pads and water was reported by 48 of the respondent. Sub counties affected by transactional sex of children and women were; Marigat, Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North. Child marriage The drought situation has contributed to incidence of child marriage. Besides challenges associated with drought, some of the factors that aggravated child marriage are; neglect by parents and caregivers, orphan hood, poverty, teenage pregnancies that forced most of the girls to in fall into marriage. In all the five sub-counties where the survey took place, child marriage was reported Teenage pregnancies Teenage pregnancies incidences were also cited in the data collection exercise. 52 girls 10-14 years and 946 girls 15-19 years have been recorded as teenage pregnancy cases. Girls would lack provision of basic needs and engage in sex to obtain essential items like pads, sex for food and money. Other reasons cited was poverty, school dropout that was worsened by drought and girls engaging in unprotected sex. All the five sub-counties reported teenage pregnancies which has been associated with peer pressure, poverty and absence of parental guidance. Children with disability Associated with taboo and other cultural stigmatization, Parents have a tendency of hiding children with disability making it difficult to provide for interventions for them. These children have difficulties in interacting and socializing with other children. Special needs children requiring specialized care have been reported.in all the sub-counties. They experience neglect, stigma and lack of education. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to the County Meteorological department, the June-July-August (JJA) rains will be near normal with the peak being experienced in August According to FEWSNET forecast, there is a possibility of above average October to December short rains in the county which may result to isolated incidents in flood prone areas. Market prices for livestock are expected to improve due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition while cereal market is likely to come down due to the expected crop harvest both within and outside the county. Forage conditions are expected to improve fairly as a result of the expected JJA rains. Additional feed supplements are likely to be realized from crop residues of the harvested and failed crops in the Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming livelihood zones Livestock body condition for cattle and other livestock species will stabilize due to the expected stability in forage conditions across livelihood zones Water access and availability will continue to be below normal but may improve towards the end of August if the JJA rains performs well. Household food stocks will improve fairly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated Cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood as farmers are expected to have a modest crop harvest. Resource based conflict will be minimal for the next three months The country will have political stability that enhances limited disruption of movement of goods and services. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Food consumption gaps are expected to decline particularly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones where farmers are likely to have modest crop harvest. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, access to cereals will improve due to the expected price reduction of cereals. On the other hand, range land conditions are expected to remain fair to good hence resulting in improved pastures and browse availability. Moreover, livestock will greatly benefit from crop residues resulting from the harvested crops and the failed crops hence resulting in improved livestock productivity especially in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. There will be marginal improvement in milk production which might see milk prices declining slightly. Household herd size will remain the same as birth rates are not expected to change much. Market operations are expected to remain normal with livestock prices improving gradually while cereal prices will decline slightly following the expected completion of crop harvest. Terms of trade are therefore expected to improve mostly for the Pastoral households. Water access and availability will remain fair as the JJA rains are expected to provide limited recharge to water sources. The trekking distances to water points are therefore expected to remain within the seasonal range while waiting time at water sources will remain normal. Water consumption at the household level will remain normal to above normal across all livelihood zones while cost of water will remain normal. Water quality will remain fair due to the expected limited recharge of water sources by the JJA rains. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to readily available green vegetables and fruits which are mostly being sourced from within the county. In the Pastoral areas, access to a variety of food stuff including vegetables and fruits will improve due to the expected drop in their market prices. Households are expected to reduce adoption of severe coping strategies as a means of accessing food due to the expected marginal improvement in food availability and reduced cereal prices. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain slightly above normal but stable due to the ongoing interventions. November-December-January The short rains season of October-December are expected to compliment the food security gains made from the long rains. Trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock are expected to stabilize and remain within the seasonal range. Forage conditions are most likely to remain fairly stable, a factor that is likely to sustain livestock productivity in terms of body condition, carcass weight, milk production among others. Limited recharge of rivers will likely take place hence benefitting irrigated agriculture to some extent. Market operations are expected to remain normal with stability of food commodity prices being experienced. Livestock prices are expected to be normal to above normal due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Food consumption will be much better due to availability of cereal and pulses stocks at the household level. In the Pastoral zone, its expected that the prices of food commodities will have come down and therefore access to food items in the markets will improve due to the enhanced terms of trade. Malnutrition cases are expected to decline marginally due to the impact of having consumed milk and other food stuffs. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase was in phase two (Stressed). Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was in phase two (Stressed). The Irrigated livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had acceptable food consumption score at 38 percent, although the Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest proportion of households not having acceptable food consumption during the period under review with eight percent and 57 percent of the sampled households having poor and borderline food consumption score by June. On consumption based coping strategies (rCSI), about 39 percent, 24 percent and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis strategies respectively by June. On livelihood coping, about zero, 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households in June had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 22 percent by June which was above LTA by 25 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County Rank (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) High malnutrition, Low latrine coverage, Poor rainfall distribution, insecurity, Invasive species, Livestock diseases, Poor dietary, High food prices, vibrant livestock feeder markets Baringo North Insecurity, Crop failure, paste diseases, rainfall distribution, High food prices, Wrong choice of crop enterprises, Livestock Diseases Mogotio Crop failure, rainfall distribution, Reduced river flows Baringo South rainfall distribution, Insecurity Invasive species (Prosopis juliflora), Water- borne diseases Baringo Central Better rains, condition Eldama Ravine Better Rains, Good crop condition 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Through the office of the County Commissioner, the County received a total 24,080 bags of rice (50kg) and 14,000 bags of beans (50kg) for the period of March-June which was distributed to the vulnerable populations in all the sub counties except Ravine. Kenya Red cross society distributed relief food to 2,000 households in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Kolowa, Loyamorok, and Silale areas. NDMA distributed about 2000 food hampers in June with assorted food stuff that comprised of uji mix, maize flour, green grams, rice, cooking fat and salt. World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household will receive KSh 11,200. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. The program runs from March to August 2023. About 2,778 households are targeted under the 1st phase received 11,200 during the month (totaling to KSh. 31,113,600 while the 2,050 are still on pipeline. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor and Endao sub locations. Once recruitment is accomplished then each household will receive KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches of KSh. 20,000, 45,000, 45,000. 5.2.2 None food interventions AGRICULTURE Intervention beneficiari Implemente Impacts terms of food security Frame Countywi Resilient building program to households Saimo Soi, Bartabwa Sacho, , ChuroAma ya, , Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus Kisanana 9,725 Government of Baringo, Restoration rehabilitation of livelihoods destroyed by Novembe r 2020- r 2024 Affruitation program Government of Baringo Increased area under fruits cover environmenta l conservation and food security million Baringo Central, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine Promotion of climate smart Agriculture interventions Kapropita, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Koibatek, L.Perkerra KCSAP Improved adaptation to climate change 300m 2018- Agrinutrition support DRLSP, Government Improve household food security Million r 2023 Promotion of farmer service centres Marigat, Mogotio, Kabarnet, Kabartonjo, Eldama Ravine Government and WFP Improve access inputs farmers promote enterpreneurs Million Nutrition Sensitive and Utilization initiatives 25,000 WFP, SHA, Government of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household food nutrition and stability security 300 M 2020- LIVESTOCK counties Capacity building of Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Partners Well Infirmed staff farmers best practices Througho Mogotio Construction of livestock feed store 200HH BCGDRLS Improved pasture conservation MARCH- WATER Water trucking Institutions Institutions 50,000 going On going rehabilitation 380HH BCG, NG, KRCS, going On going PVC Tanks Installations positioning SHA Save the Children 0.45M Partially Comple Partially Complete Construction of New water Projects 1560HH BCG, NG, 1year On going Rehabilitation of BHs 2320 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV 1 Year On going Drilling and Equipping of 2620 HH BCG, NG, 1 Year On going Capacity building on Sustainable water management 2130 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 Year On going Catchment protection HEALTH Sustain Mass screening and referrals facilities in the County Provision of supplements Integrated outreach services 120 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 7 sub counties 1,873,2 SMART Survey 5.0 M UNICE EDUCATION Baring North, Tiaty y East , M ogotio, Marigat -Parents provide fire wood, utensils for cooking meals in schools - proper storage of food stuff at primary schools parents 3 months i.e one Baringo Central Koibatek, Baringo Central Purchase of food stuff from nearby counties of Uasin gishu and Nakuru, Provision of relief food by national, county government 29 primary schools primary schools Ministry of education Ministry of interior and national coordination Education partners eg red cross 3 months i. e one and education partners Baring North, Tiaty y East , Mogotio, Marigat -Parents provide fire wood, utensils for cooking meals in schools - proper storage of food stuff at primary schools parents 3 months i.e. one Child protection Baringo North transfer and HISP support children in distress 10,000 government Quarterly Marigat transfer and HISP support children in distress 9,000 government Quarterly Tiaty East transfer and HISP 9,000 government Quarterly support children in distres Mogotio transfer and HISP support children in distres 8,500 government Quarterly Baringo Central transfer and HISP support children in distres 12,000 government Quarterly Koibatek transfer and HISP support children in distres 8,000 government 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Tiaty transfer and HISP 8,000 government Quarterly 2023 LRA security (Worst best) Population Estimated proportion immediate food assistance per sub county Wards Estimated proportion need of immediate assistance () Per Ward Tiaty 73,424 35,000 (48) Silale 40-50 Loiyamorok 40-45 TangulbeiKorossi 20-30 ChuroAmaya 20-25 Tiaty East 79,923 25,000 (31) Tirioko 40-45 Kolowa 30-40 Ribkwo 30-40 Baringo North 104,871 20,000 (19) Barwessa 20-30 SaimoKipsaraman SaimoSoi 40-45 Kabartonjo Bartabwa 40-45 Mogotio 91,104 10,000 (11) Mogotio 10-15 Emining 25-30 Kisanana 25-30 Baringo South 90,104 10,000 (11) Mukutani 30-40 Marigat 25-30 Ilchamus 20-25 Mochongoi 15-20 Baringo Central 96,951 5,000 (5) (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Kabarnet (salawa) Sacho Tenges Kapropita Ewalel Chapchap Eldama Ravine 129,535 5000 (4) Lembus Ravine Lembus Kwen Koibatek Lembus Perkerra Mumberesmaji mazuri 5.3.2 None food interventions AGRICULTURE Sub County Intervention beneficiarie Proposed Implementers Requi Resou Available Resource Frame nutrition support 1. Purchase and distribution of Traditional value crops. 2. Construction of farm ponds 3. Supply of drip multi-storey gardens vegetable seeds National Government, Government WFP, ELRP, (Kshs millio Staff Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Mogoti Mariga Tenges Government of Baringo Staff, Groups identified support 2020- Crops Post- harvest management Construction cereal stores National Government, Government, (Kshs Millio Staff Total population in need of food assistance 110,000 Purchase and distribution of hermetic bags Purchase and distribution of solar development partners LIVESTOCK BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty (LSD, CCPP) Tiaty, BNorth (LSD) Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming Disease surveillance 100,000 Cattle, 270,000 goats 50,000 Sheep BCG, FAO and other Development partners -Baringo North -Tiaty(E -Baringo South Mogotio Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 across 6 sub- counties 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Loruk, Amaya, Nginyang and Kolloa RenovationConst ruction of livestock Auction yards 13,000HH BCG, Partners counties Provisiojn of pasture seeds 5000HH BCGPartners counties Employment of addition extension staff to replace retirees 6,000HHs Continuo WATER Countywide 18 No. BH Water Supply Rehabilitation unity WS in 3580HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 10M 1- 6 months upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units l and livelih ACTED, USAID, NDMA, SHA, Save the Children Roof Water harvesting structures Institut ions unities l and l Zones Institutions BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, NDMA, SHA, CHILD Fund, months Stock piling of Fast-Moving Spares 24 No. community water supplies unity WS in l and 1,260 HHs ASAL areas BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 300,000 months Capacity Strengthening on WASH Sustainable Water Management and Catchment protection Water supplie l and l Zones 30 No. Community Water supplies BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, months Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc l and agro l Zones 3,000HHs BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, Months Water Governance and Management Whole Baringo Water BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, Months Policy development Resources Users ACTION AID, USAID, NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP, Drilling and Equipping of strategic 18 No. BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas l and agro l Zones 1,900HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 10 M 1 - 5 yrs Construction and Upgrading of 16 No. potential Low Cost Water Supplies l and agro l Zones 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs Construction of 4 No. Small dams for domestic and irrigation water l and agro l Zones 2400HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs Desilting of Intakes , Water Pans and Dams l and agro l Zones 3900HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs Capacity Strengthening on Wash Sustainable Water Management Resources Mobilization Conflict Resolution and Management and Catchment protection l and agro l Zones 50 No. Water Supplies BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs HEALTH counties Vitamin A Supplementation 90,449 (children 6 months) July - Dec All sub counties Supplementation 20,000 July-Dec All Sub counties Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 8,971 under five children July-Dec Counties prone to disasters Capacity Building on MIYCN- E Children 0- 23 months Pregnant Lactating Mothers KRCMOH 1.2 M July Dec All sub counties Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) 41,533 Children birth 2 years 4.1 M July-Dec Hot sport Areas Integrated outreaches Population in the hard to reach hot sport area BCGKRC and UNICEFWFP 20.0 M July- Dec All sub counties Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women All pregnant women 5.35M July-Dec All sub counties Deworming 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M July-Dec EDUCATION Marigat,Tiat y East, Tiaty West, Baringo North OF food stores in schools Proper roads maintenance 519 schools education partners, county government, parents stores 1,000,0 00 519 519,000 million Roads quantity and civil enginee estimate",
        "Baringo_LRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2022 The 2022 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2022. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was late in the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March and it was characterized by uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution while cessation was normal in the last dekad of May. Area under rainfed maize production was near normal but the projected yield is expected to be 60 percent of long-term average (LTA) due to poor rainfall performance, crop pest infestation, crop failure and high cost of farm inputs. Household stocks are at 29 percent of LTA and only available in Eldama Ravine sub-county and expected to last for less than two months. Area under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and therefore the projected yield will be above normal for most of the crops but the potential yield vis a vis the prepared acreage will not be realized due to reduced water flow in the rivers. Forage conditions are in poor to fair conditions in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and expected to last for two to three months while livestock body condition for cattle is poor to fair. Most of the cattle in the Pastoral livelihood zone are yet to return to their normal wet season grazing fields due to poor pasture conditions. Milk production and consumption is still below LTA but showing marginal signs of recovery. In Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones, there was above normal livestock mortality rate of 3-5 percent for cattle at the start of the season due to drought impacts, against a normal of less than two percent. Market operations were mainly normal but characterized by very high food prices especially for maize while livestock prices for cattle were below LTA but near normal for goats and sheep. Terms of trade have been on a deteriorating trend and stood at 29 percent by June thus weakening purchasing power for Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. The most common sources of water were boreholes and water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while rivers, shallow wells and water springs were the most common in other livelihood zones. Most of the water pans had 20-30 percent of their normal capacity in Pastoral zone and 40-50 percent in Agro- Pastoral zone. The cost of water at water source was normal but waiting time and household water consumption were below LTA but on an improving trend. A significant proportion of households in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones do not have acceptable food consumption score at 56 and 37 percent respectively while households applying food based coping strategies (rCSI) were 39, 24 and 37 percent for none coping, stressed and crisis respectively. For livelihood coping strategies, about 46 percent of households did not apply any coping while 32 and 22 percent had stressed and crisis strategies. There was a marginal increase in enrolment of learners across all levels of education compared to the previous term by 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary levels respectively. For school feeding program, about 87 and 68 percent of learners in ECDE and primary schools were under schools meals programs respectively. The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase 3 (Crisis). The Pastoral, Marginal mixed and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis), while the Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase 1 (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... i 3.1.1 Crops production .......................................................................................................................... 4 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................................ 6 3.1.3 Livestock production.................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Impact on availability................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Market operations ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.2 Market Prices ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4 Income sources ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Water access and availability ..................................................................................................... 15 3.2.6 Food consumption ...................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.7 Coping strategy .......................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ............................................................................................... 19 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ......................................................................... 20 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity ......................................................................................... 21 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene ............................................................................................................... 22 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) .................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season .......................................................................... 25 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season ......................................................................... 25 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ............................................................................. 26 3.5.4 Inter sector links ......................................................................................................................... 26 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................................. 28 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .................................................................................................................... 29 5.2.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 30 5.2.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 30 5.3.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 34 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo borders Turkana Samburu Counties North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers approximate 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) Sub-counties, namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Long Rains Food and Nutrition Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed at ascertaining at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2022 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food and nutrition security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards and determine the impact of the shocks on livelihoods. The exercise further assessed the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutrition status and socio-economic conditions, take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience and finally to assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 long rains assessment exercise was conducted by a multi-sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment livelihood Agropastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated crop Others Figure 1: Livelihood populations was conducted from 4th to 15th July 2022. The process started with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team finally drafted the county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late compared to the previous seasons and was observed during the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March. The amount received was mostly below normal in most parts of the county translating to about 79-90 percent of the normal rains for the season (Figure 2). Parts of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub- counties received about 51-75 percent of the normal rains. Only ChuroAmaya ward in Tiaty sub-county received normal rains for the season under review. The distribution in time was poor with about 42 percent of the total amount of rains for the season being received during the third dekad of April while spatial distribution was uneven. The cessation of the season was normal during the third dekad of May. The county has also experienced some off-season rains mostly during the month of July with fair temporal and even spatial distribution. 2.2 InsecurityConflict During the season under review, the county did experience sporadic cases of banditry attacks mostly in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The affected wards include SaimoSoi, Bartabwa, Muchongoi and part of Kollowa (Kipnai) whereby about 4,000 households were affected. These banditry attacks affected land preparatory activities including digging and planting due to displacement and tension. The national government has imposed a dawn to dusk curfew in Tiaty sub-county in an effort to restore peace. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks Crop failure A number of farms are likely to report crop failure across the county due to poor performance of the season whereby the most affected crop was beans. High food commodity prices Cereal prices were extremely high especially for maize crop whereby the prices increased by over 100 percent compared to the long-term mean (LTA). Prices of other food stuff including fruits and vegetables were also very high thus posing access challenges. Hazards Crop pests African Army Worms There was an invasion African army worms during the mid-season affecting about 10 percent of the farms. However, the pests are disappearing slowly due to the impact of the off-season rains. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The long rains season is very important for food and nutrition security as the county heavily depends on it for the production of various crops and recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes, contributing to over 90 percent of the county annual food requirements. In the year 2022 the County received below normal rains which affected land preparation and planting for crops. Most of the farmers did not plant during the season and this reduced the area under rain fed crop farming, for instance, area under maize and beans was 96 and 78 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Table 1 : Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Income Agro-Pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture The area planted during the current season with maize was near normal at 96 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this is due to depressed season, the most affected sub-counties being Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty. The crops were showing signs of water stress in all lower areas of the county that might end up into crop failure but along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine there was a good crop There were reported cases of infestation by field pests whereby about 21 percent of the area planted was affected by the African army worms across the county and the dry spells that occurred within the season created a favorable condition for the multiplication of the pest. The projected production for maize is expected to be about 60 percent of the LTA in the county and this was contributed by crop failure in county estimated to be at 56 percent. The estimated crop failure rates are 35, 80, 65, 55, and 70 percent for Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, and Baringo South sub counties respectively while 55 percent of the crops in the irrigated areas is likely to fail. The area under sorghum decreased by 13 percent due to delayed onset of the season. The crops conditions are poor to fair due to moisture stress and even though the county has received some off-season rains, some of these crops will not be able to recover. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans at harvesting stage, but this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage whereby they are being affected by moisture stress leading to wilting. Table 2: Rainfed agriculture Area planted during 2022 Long rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the long rains season 2022 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the long rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 39,640 41,133 594,600 1,028,325 2. Beans 17,650 22,505 264,750 450,100 3. Sorghum 1,580 1,800 1,300 18,000 Irish Potatoes 2,000 1,289 156,750 13,020 Irrigated crop production The area under maize was above the LTA by 640 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who were able to access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly done in three sub-counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation schemes in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was decreased river water flow which was caused by depressed rains hence 55 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income generation especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. About 20 to 40 percent of the prepared acreage under irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. Table 3:Irrigated agriculture planted during the 2022 Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) planted during Long rains season (ha) 2022 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 8,000 1,500 Beans Tomatoes 1,820 1,235 Water melons Seed Maize 3,500 1,524 78,052 155,150 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 84,654 290,864 Traders 98,645 34,928 3,087 1,056 Millers 22,400 8,382 AidNCPB Totals 205,699 334,174 3,095 1,059 Households The stocks held by households was 29 percent of the LTA (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 45 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for their stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board but with high prices currently the farmers are releasing them to the markets. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs in preparation for the long rains season. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA at 282 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 80 percent of the households depend on the markets for their food supply and are mostly to be found in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers Millers stocks are above LTA at 267 percent and this was due to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). The looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices also contributed to the high stocks being held. Traders and millers have more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones there are no stock due to poor harvest. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry periods and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Currently, the hazards affecting the sector include; under-performance of long rains, resulting to poor pastures and browse, insecurity and livestock diseases. Table 5 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Percent contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Pasture and browse conditions Forage conditions were below the expected level, in both quantity and quality, and this was attributed to poor performance of four consecutive rainfall seasons. The pastures were expected to last for 1.5 months, in both Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and one month in the Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones (Table 6). Browse was in fair to good condition across the livelihood zones. Some invasive species are present in the Pastoral livelihood particularly in Tiaty West sub-county. Factors limiting forage access were insecurity tensions around Saimosoi and Bartabwa wards, Arabal area in Baringo South sub county and Kapedo areas bordering Turkana County. African Army Worm invasion was reported in the county affecting crops, which would have later provided feeds as agricultural by-products. The worms also affected germination and sprouting of pastures hence reducing their development. Table 6: Pasture and browse conditions Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration last (Months) access Condition Projected Duration last (month) access Mixed farming Fair to limit Fair to limit cropping Fair to limit Fair to limits limit Fair to limit Fair to Pasture Conservation: Table 7 shows the pasture conservation status in the county. The existing bales are extremely below the holding capacity of the county stores and what was being consumed during the season was mostly imported from outside the county as internal production declined significantly due to poor rainfall performance. There is Mogotio Livestock Improvement Centre which has hay balers and does services to the farmers in hay baling. The quantity of crop residues as forage will decline due to expected poor crop performance, whereby more than 50 percent of the crop will fail at a young stage which will not be sufficient to compensate for the normal residues realized during harvesting time. Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 10,500 2,500 2 are held by KVDA 88 Held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 3,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. ERavine 600,000 130,000 80 by farmers 10 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 280,000 4,520 100 by farmers from community stores and traders Mogotio 570,000 120,000 75 By farmer groups 25 by individuals Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 cropping BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 (NB: LCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, LCS 2Poor, LCS 3Fair, LCS 4 Good, LCS 5 Very Good) The livestock body condition slightly improved compared with the previous assessment. The improvement was attributed to gradual improvement of the contributing factors such as forage, water, trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. The body condition was expected to improve further if rainfall performance improves. COVID-19 has not been reported as having affected Livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Table 8 shows livestock body condition score by livelihood zones. Tropical livestock unit (LTU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit The average TLUs in poor income households were 4.0 against a normal of 4.5 while in medium income households average TLUs were 7.1 against a normal of 9. Compared to the last assessment, the TLUs for both poor and medium income households declined slightly and this was mainly attributed to the above normal livestock mortality rates during the drought period observed at the beginning of the year. Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Average Birth rate The calving, kidding and lambing rates were below normal at 2.5 percent and this was attributed to deterioration of forage conditions. The poor rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance to water points. The calving, kidding and lambing rates depend on status of pastures across all livelihood zones during conception period. Milk Production and consumption The prices of milk went up as a result of decrease in supply, which emanated from decline in production (Table 10). Consumption was also lower than the normal. The low milk production was attributed to deterioration in forage conditions both in quantity and quality whereby this was due to poor rainfall performance. Table 10: Milk production Livelihood zone Milk production per household (Lts) Milk consumption per household (Lts) Prices (KES) Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Livestock migration During the season under review, there were above normal livestock migration between the months of March and April at the peak of the drought that was being witnessed in the county. The migrations were triggered by search for pastures which have been in poor condition or depleted for some time. Others were also due to insecurity. The migratory routes included ChuroAmaya in Laikipia County, KolloaTirioko in West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin areas, Silale- Malaso at Turkana County border, Kasarani, Tangulbei-LaikipiaMochongoiBeyong Malaso (MoruakirinMarti), Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo and Mogotio in Rongai sub- county. After the onset of the long rains, all county livestock started normal migrations which were internal. Projected trend of Migration Most of the cattle are yet to return to their normal wet grazing fields in the Pastoral zone due to the poor conditions of the pastures. If the off-season rains are not sustained, then pasture recovery may not be realized and therefore trigger another phase of livestock migration within and outside the county. The migratory routes are likely to be the same as the above ones. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases The main endemic diseases in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP) and Peste des Petit Ruminants (PPR) (Table 11). Other disease cases for Lumpy Skin Disease and Foot Mouth Disease were reported. Vaccination against LSD, CCPP was done in Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub-counties. Deworming was also done in the county with funding from FAO. According to the county assessment report, about 16,873 cattle succumbed to drought impacts during the period under review, raising the mortality rate to 3.5-5 percent against a normal of two percent. Most of these deaths were reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, especially in Tiaty and Mogotio sub-counties. Table 11: Livestock diseases Water for Livestock Variations in water sources and trekking distance are due to low recharge level and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels are at 30 to 40 percent in Pastoral livelihood zones and 40 to 50 percent in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. There is no known effect of COVID-19 on livestock water. The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance and insecurity. Tables 12, 13 and 14 show water sources, trekking distances, expected duration to last and watering frequencies. county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported Vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattleshoats Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle Vaccinations Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination done Sub-county wise Sheep and goats Ring vaccination done Eldama Ravine Koibatek, Lembus Pekerra Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Baringo South Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases-3 deaths No vaccination done Kimorok Goats affectes-2 deaths No vaccination done Baringo North Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated Barwessa, Shoats 400 Vaccinated at Barwessa Rabies All wards No deaths 200 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 22,000 livestock dewormed Table 12: Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Agro-Pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, Streams, water pans, Boreholes Bore-holes, water pans. Water wells Water-pans, Bore-holes, rivers Table 13: Trekking distances Livelihood zone Return trekking distances (Kms) Expected duration (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Throughout Throughout Irrigated cropping Throughout Throughout Agro-Pastoral Table 14: Livestock watering frequency Livelihoo d zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Mixed Farming cropping 3.1.4 Impact on availability Rain fed crop production which provides over 90 percent of annual county food requirements during the long rains season will be poor hence the projected yield is expected to be less than 60 percent of the LTA. This implies that households will not be able to replenish their household stocks which currently stand at less than 30 of the LTA. Households are therefore expected to continue relying on markets for their food requirements for the next 12 months. Livestock productivity will be below normal especially for cattle whose body condition is yet to recover to normal conditions and therefore affect milk production and consumption. Households are expected to complement their milk requirements through purchases from the local markets. Goats are likely to recover their normal body condition due to availability of adequate browse and therefore are expected to attract better prices in the markets as a source of income, which can then be used to access food for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio, including Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock species being traded are the goats, sheep and cattle across the livelihood zones with the goats forming the bulk of the traded animals. There are fewer cattle in the markets compared to a normal year and this has been attributed to by the poor livestock body condition as farmers have opted to keep them at home for the recovery of the body condition. This has affected the cattle prices as they are lower than LTA although on an improving trend. The market conditions are generally on a gradual recovery mode following a long drought spell which affected traded animal volumes for the season under review. There were no market disruptions reported during the season and the buyers of the animals were coming from both within and outside the county including Nairobi, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu among others. The traded volumes and livestock prices are likely to pick up in the next three months as the livestock body condition improves due to the ongoing pasture and browse regeneration. On the other hand, cereals prices were extremely high compared to LTA, a factor that affected access as there were fewer buyers in the markets purchasing cereals and other food stuffs. Most of the maize was being sourced from outside the county, with some coming from the neighboring countries of Uganda and Tanzania. 3.2.2 Market Prices Maize prices The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by 32 percent from Ksh. 65 in May to Ksh 86 June (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 73 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 90.5 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. This trend is likely to be maintained in the next three months as there is general shortage of maize in the county. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- June 2022 Figure 3: Maize prices Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh. 2,506 in June, an increase of eight percent in comparison to the previous month of May (Figure 4). The price was below short-term average by eight percent. The prices were highest cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,433 and lowest in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,500. Livestock body condition in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones is just recovering from the impact of drought that was experienced in the County from November last year to April this year and therefore resulting in low prices. The prices are expected to improve due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade Terms of trade declined by 18 percent from 36 in May to 29 in June (Figure 5). This was attributed to increased maize prices in comparison to the low goat prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 48 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 49 while Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 21.4. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the low terms of trade in this zone. 3.2.4 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 15. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County - June 2022 Upper llimit Figure 4: Goat prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in Baringo County - June 2022 Figure 5: Terms of trade livelihood zones since there was a decline n income from livestock sales as a result of poor livestock body condition. Table 15: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing 3.2.5 Water access and availability Introduction The main water sources for domestic use in all the livelihood zones are rivers, springs, boreholes, water pans, dams, lakes and shallow wells (Figure 6). Most of these sources are concentrated in Mixed Farming livelihoods zones where rainfall potential is higher as compared to Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the rivers at the moment in the Agro- Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are generally low and others have dried up due uneven distribution of rainfall. Some of the Boreholes and water supplies are not operational due to mechanical breakdowns and electricity bills thus overstretching the nearby sources. The recharge of all the water sources was fair during the season as compared to normal. The storage capacity of the open water sources is at 40 to 50 percent for the Agro-Pastoral and 20 to 30 percent for the Pastoral livelihood zones. The water levels in most of the boreholes are generally fair. Figure 6: Water sources Distances to water sources The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable by June at 3.9 km as compared to the previous month of May (Figure 7). In contrast to the long term average the distances were below normal by three percent (depicting positive trend). cropping livelihood recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.2 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water points as a result of the off-season rains being experienced. Waiting time, cost of water and water consumption Waiting time at water sources was at 5-10 minutes for Mixed and Irrigated livelihood zones while for Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral is 20 to 40 minutes. Water consumption in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones did drastically reduce at the beginning of the season but currently improving slightly due to rainfall on-set and reduced distances to water points. The cost of water per 20 litre Jerrycan was normal at Ksh 5 at the point of source. In Pastoral livelihood zone, water consumption per person per day was 4-6 litres contrary to a normal range of 5-10litres and for Agro-Pastoral zone it was 7-12 litres against a normal of 10-15 litres. In the Mixed farming zone consumption was 14-17 litres against a normal of 15-20 litres (Table 16). Due to the depleted water sources in Pastoral livelihood zones, some community members have migrated with their herds of livestock near to water sources so as to reduce the water stress on their animals. Table 16: Trekking distance, water cost, waiting time and water consumption Livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20 litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 0.5-1 15-20 20-25 0.5-1 15-20 20-25 Agro - 10-15 10-15 15-20 15-20 10-15 10-15 Figure 7: Trekking distances 3.2.6 Food consumption Food consumption score According to the NDMA sentinel EWS data, a significant proportion of households Pastoral livelihood zones did not have acceptable food consumption score for the last four months as shown in Figure 8 and by June, proportions were at 56 and 37 percent respectively. This was contributed inability of households to access nutritious food stuffs due to high food prices coupled by poor terms of trade that are disadvantaging Pastoral households from accessing food items in the local markets. This has affected food consumption patterns whereby the number of meals per day is 1-2 against a normal of three while meal sizes have reduced compared to normal. 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Food consumption score: March-June 2022 Acceptable Borderline Figure 8: Food consumption score Milk consumption The average household milk consumption was one litre per day by June and that the consumption rate has been on an increasing trend since April after the onset of the long rains season. However, the current milk consumption rate was still below the long-term average by 29 percent (Figure 9). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litre and lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 0.7 litre. 3.2.7 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) The average County CSI was stable by June at 16 with the Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones having the highest CSI values of over 15 for the last four months as shown in Figure 10. The high CSI in these zones was contributed inadequate food availability following the prolonged drought spells witnessed in the county that forced households to adopt different strategies for survival including skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, food borrowing among others. Figure 9: Milk consumption Coping Strategy Index: March-June 2022 Agro pastoral Figure 10: Coping strategy index 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity among under-five population followed almost the same trend as in 2021 with URTI causing the most morbidity followed by malaria diarrhoea causing least morbidity (Figure 11). There was a marginal increase in the number of cases this year compared to 2021 as shown in the chart, could attributed immunity due to poor nutrition status as a result of deteriorating food consumption score and low milk consumption across all livelihood zones. Morbidity for General Population Figure 12: Morbidity in general population 52368.66667 31935.66667 8680.333333 12328.66667 General population Morbidity Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) MORBIDITY FOR UNDERFIVE POPULATION Figure 11: Morbidity patterns for under five Morbidity in the general population was higher in 2022 compared to 2021 with URTI cases causing the highest morbidity in the general population (Figure 12). However diarrhoeal case remains low and could be attributed to measure put in place to control COVID- 19 pandemic. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Figure 13: Vitamin A supplementation coverage Vitamin A supplementation coverage for the first half of 2022 was much higher than a similar period last year (Figure 13). Unlike 2021 where the coverage was below the national target of 80, in 2022 it surpassed the target. Immunization below the national target my mid-year, with Tiaty having higher coverage compared to Tiaty West (Figure 14). Figure 14: Immunization coverage Jan-April 2022 for Tiaty sub county 115.4 100.0 120.0 140.0 Jan-Jun 2021 Jan-Jun 2022 Vitamin A coverage Target TARGET 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions were above long-term average for January to May 2022 (Figure 15). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities in most health facilities in the county. Figure 15: OTP admission trends Underweight trends The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight were below the long-term average as shown Figure However, December 2021 an increase of 5.1 was recorded and this could be attributed to the worsening of nutrition status due to decrease in availability of milk and also decrease in number meals consumed per day. 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.1 2.6 Underweight Trends LTA (5-yr average) Figure 16: Underweight trend Outpatient Theraputic Program (OTP) admision trends LTM (5-yr average) Nutrition status based on Mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition in June 2022 was 19.2 compared to 9.6 percent in June 2021; an increase of 50 percent (Figure 17). The deterioration in nutrition status is attributed to the decrease in milk consumption at household level. SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey done in July in Tiaty sub -county (Pastoral livelihood zone, global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 26.4 percent which was critical while severe acute malnutrition (SAM) was at 5.3 percent. Stunting rate was at 51 percent which is among the highest in the country. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Water storage facilities were few across the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone. Most of these storage facilities did not receive water treatment chemicals. Most of the community water supplies had untreated water and the community members were expected to carry out treatment at household level. Generally, most treatment methods conveniently used at household level was boiling and use of aqua-tabs. According to the SMART survey done in July 2022 in Tiaty East and West sub-counties (Pastoral livelihood zone), only one percent of the sampled households access water from safe water sources while 99 percent do not treat their water at all. About 97 percent of the households stored their water in closed containers while 97 percent were not buying water but got it free at the sources. About 24 percent of the households were not aware of any hand washing norms and for those who practiced hand washing, about 7.0, 8.0, 68 and 30 percent did it at four critical times, after taking children to toilet, before eating meals and after visiting toilets respectively. About 52 percent of the households were washing hands using water only. Figure 17: Nutrition status based on MUAC Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub-county Latrine coverage Open defecation July to December 2022 Coverage July to December Coverage Open defecation (bushes) Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Tiaty West Tiaty Tiaty East and West sub-counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County. This is mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high case of water related diseases. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, February, 2022 Long rains assessment, July, 2022 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) pastoral Agro-pastoral Fair-Good cropping Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption (litres per person per day pastoral 8 - 12 Agro-pastoral 10-15 cropping 5 - 10 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 12 - 15 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 15 20 Pastoral-all species 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) Table 18: School enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centers, 729 primary schools and 179 secondary schools with a current enrolment of 49,494, 146,512 and 50, 770 students respectively as shown in Table 20. There was an improvement in enrolment across all levels of education compared with the previous term, translating to 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. The improvement in enrolment was attributed to schools meals program primary schools, 100 percent transition policy in secondary schools and availability of bursaries from different sources. There were minor cases of school drop outs of about 25 pupils in ECDE (14 boys and 11 girls), 140 students in primary schools (84 boys and 56 girls) and 69 students (42 boys and 27 girls) in secondary schools. Some of the reasons behind the drop out were psychological trauma, child Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,517 2,506 Distance to grazing pastoral Agro-pastoral cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-15 Agro-Pastoral-22 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-3 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline School level Current term Previous term Girls Total Girls Total 23,191 26,303 49,494 22,404 20,019 42,423 Primary 76,223 70,289 146,512 74,161 68,844 143,005 Secondary 25,626 25,144 50,770 25,232 24,506 49,738 labour, nomadism, insecurity, illnesses, lack of school fees, teenage pregnancy, indulgence in bodaboda business, early marriages among others. 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season Table 19: School meals program No of schools with schools meals program transfer CSSMP Other types of school feeding Total number ries of schools meals program Total no ries not in schools meals program Level Prima Secon total Total About 87 and 68 percent of students in ECDE and Primary schools respectively were benefiting from various forms of school meals program as shown in Table 21. The bulk of the school meals program were in kind school meals program (ISMP) for primary schools and County supported program for ECDE centers. There were no secondary school students receiving any form of school meals program. 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season The water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water tracking, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools without access to safe water sources in ECDE was 641, 261 and 50 for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. Water access and availability in schools affected retention and attendance of learners in schools and therefore influencing academic performance. There were 388 ECDE, 390 primary schools and 145 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting facilities in the county with some of them applying chemicals to treat water. 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains while no school infrastructure was reported to have been destroyed by the rains and currently no school is hosting IDPs. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the long rains ECDE, primary and secondary learners were affected by common colds and diarrhea. Some of the interventions provided by the Ministry of Health include deworming, vitamin A supplementation and regular visits by health officers. Effects of COVID-19 were still being felt i.e. continuity of learning was interrupted, change of school calendar (term dates), syllabus coverage was interrupted and school drop outs. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines was 120 ECDE, 20 primary schools and 5 secondary schools while the number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities was 15 ECDE, 10 primary schools and 3 secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits for the previous term 2022 provided by the government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particularly in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to County Meteorological department, the off-season rains of June to August are likely to be enhanced in the highlands that comprises mainly the Mixed farming livelihood zone but will be below to near normal within the low lands. According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) EWS bulletin of June 2022, food prices particularly for cereals will be above normal for the next six months as the county will not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks via local production. According to NDMA June bulletin, rangeland conditions in terms of pastures and browse will continue to be below normal conditions especially in the Pastoral areas due to poor performance of the rains. NDMA June bulletin shows that livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas will remain in poor to fair conditions for the next three months due to slow recovery of pastures. Water availability and access will remain in fair conditions due to the impacts of off- season rains of July to August and therefore affecting water consumption at household level. Security situation will remain stable due to the control measures being put in place by the government. However, the general election is likely to create some tension among the rival political candidates. Household stocks will continue to decline further as the county did not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks as a result of failure of rains for the last four seasons. Local markets will heavily rely on supplies of food from other counties (Source: Agriculture dept, Baringo County Government). Market operations will most likely remain normal. The general elections scheduled in August 2022 will be peaceful and that the ongoing political campaigns will not have major effect on food security. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months (August-January) The County will not have any household maize stocks left in the next three months as the little existing stocks will have been depleted by then leading to near total dependence on markets. The expected maize harvest will be below 50 percent and will be realized by October due to late planting, moisture stress among other factors. This therefore implies that the county will experience a food deficit for the remainder of this year and half of next since it is heavily reliant on long rains for food production. The off-season rains are expected to stimulate marginal forage recovery across the county and therefore cattle are likely to post marginal improvement in body condition leading to a slight improvement in milk production though it will still be below long- term average. Livestock prices for cattle are likely to remain below LTA while prices for goats and sheep will improve as a result of browse availability. Food prices particularly for maize will remain above LTA and therefore affecting negatively terms of trade for Pastoral households. Water access and availability will improve to fair condition and therefore relieving households in terms of trekking distances, water consumption and waiting time at water sources for at least two months. All the outcome indicators of food consumption, nutrition status and coping strategies will be poor as households are expected to experience food consumption gaps for the remainder of the year due to expected below normal crop and livestock production. The county is therefore expected to record more cases of malnutrition especially in the Pastoral areas. 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had an acceptable food consumption score of 38.2 which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 36.5. A proportion of 3.4, 44.4 and 52.2 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable FCS respectively. More households in Pastoral an Agro-pastoral livelihood zones have shifted to borderline and poor food consumption scores by June in comparison to the previous months and this was due to increasing food consumption gaps that are a result of very high food prices, below normal milk production, poor terms of trade and poor crop production. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis reduced strategies (rCSI) respectively. About 46 percent of sampled households had no livelihood coping while 32 and 21 percent of households applied stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies. The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition was stable at 19.2 but still above the LTA by June. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty Extremely malnutrition level Livestock mortality Insecurity Poor pastures Poor recharge of water sources Poor rainfall Poor terms of trade High food prices Mogotio Crop failure Poor forage conditions Poor livestock body conditions Livestock mortality Poor recharge of water sources Poor terms of trade High food prices Baringo North Poor rainfall Crop failure Invasion of Crop pests (African army worms) Insecurity Poor forage condition Fair livestock body condition Livestock mortality Insecurity Poor terms of trade High food prices Baringo South Poor rainfall performance Poor livestock body condition Poor regeneration of pasture Livestock mortality Crop failure Crop pests Poor recharge of water sources for irrigation Insecurity Malnutrition High food prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance Invasion of crop pests High food prices Poor terms of trade Eldama Ravine Fair water recharge Fair forage conditions Fair crop conditions 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 3, 360 bags (50kg) of rice and 3,360 bags (50kg) of beans for distribution to the vulnerable households in the county. World Food Program is planning to target 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is carrying out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. 5.2.2 Non-food interventions AGRICULTURE Intervention Implemente Impact in terms security frame All Sub Counties Promotion nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions- Targeting vulnerable Provision Kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers wards 20,000 FAO, WFP, CROSS, COUNTY GOVERNM DRLSP, KCSAP, Improve Nutrition security 15,000,0 Jun-Dec Support security interventions by providing inputs for bulking and planting seeds and seedlings 6,000 Government of Baringo, Cross, SHA Increase agricultur July- Bulking of high iron beans and sweet potato rich in Vitamin A to Mochon Ilchamu Koibate Government enough materials distribute farmers across the County in 2023- Continu order improve Food and nutrition security county. LIVESTOCK Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio Baringo Central Vaccination against LSD, CCPP and PPR BCGACTE Boost livestock Health 1-Jan, Baringo North Capacity strengthening to Mother to Mother groups on Poultry Production ds (HH) BCGSHA Resilienc building to HHs through Mother Mother groups Baringo north, Provision Galla bucks to groups 500HH Improve livestock Oct,202 1-on- wards Baringo Central Mogotio Baringo South Provision of pasture harvesting tools like pasture cutters, and baling boxes. 500HH BCGRPLR Improve communi livelihoo Sept, counties Capacity building of Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Partners Infirmed staff and farmers for best practices Through Mogotio Construction of livestock feed store 200HH BCGDRLS Improved pasture conservat Feb,202 WATER Tiaty Equipping,extens ionand Kachilit 2,500,00 construction of kiosk Pipeline extension of cheraik water project Cheraik Pipeline extension of Kasoe water project Kabimoi 50HH Kapngasio water project pipeline Extension Kaimoi Baringo South Upgrading of kibingor BH Kibingo CGB Partners HEALTH Vitamin A Supplementation health facilities selected 82,268 people supported by UNICEF, Routine Supplementation 75,000 people department of health 800,000 Routine Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 52,600 people department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, and WFP 240,000, Routine Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato health facilities commun ity units 107,492 department of health supported by Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women health facilities department of health supported by UNICEF Routine Deworming health facilities 33,683 department of health supported by UNICEF Routine EDUCATION Baringo north Provision of food commodities. Kipsara Saimo Bartabw Saimo kipsara 25,685 Increased continu Mogotio Parents provide water, fuel wood, pay cook and purchase utensils learners (ECD, PRY Parents NGOs Promote retention Termly TIATY School feeding from MOE 18,042 Improved retention, t and participat 2022 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County 2022 LRA Food security (Worst to best) Population Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () LRA 2022 July 2022 Tiaty 153,347 (46) 70,540 Mogotio 91,104 (40) 36,442 Baringo North 104,871 (48) 50,338 Baringo South 90,104 (50) 45,052 Baringo Central 96,951 (30) 29,085 (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Eldama Ravine 129,535 (5) 6,400 (Urban poor) (10) 12,954 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture county Intervention No. of Proposed Impleme nters Required Resources Availabl Resourc Frame Inputs provision including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals 8,000 WFP, All projects in departmen Finances (Kshs 12 million) Staff, Farmer digitization across the County for effective targeting and assistance 100,000 KCSAP, ELRP, Finances (Kshs 40 Million) Staff Enhance irrigated Agriculture reviving stalled irrigation schemes Irrigati scheme National nt, County nt and partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff Promote Farm land regeneration Environmental conservation through affruitation (provision of certified fruit (Includ schools farms revival 150,000 nt of Education, nt of Baringo Finances million) Staff, Availabi lity of fenced farms, (Perkerra, Koibatek wads and urban poor) Total population in need of food assistance 207,969 trees for nutrition conservation), and gulley healing across the young farmer clubs) National nt and partners Establishment of Agriculture business development centres in identified wards for identified groups for linkage with organized markets Mariga o and Eldam Ravine WFP and nt of Baringo Finances Million) farmers, Existenc e of the small holder public procure strategy Livestock BNorth Tiaty (LSD, CCPP) Tiaty, BNorth (LSD) Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming Disease surveillance 100,000 Cattle, 270,000 goats 50,000 Sheep FAO and other Developm partners -Jun, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Provision of Livestock feeds 2,000HH Partners -Apr, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Emergency Livestock Off- 50,000H 5,000HH Partners Baringo North -Tiaty(E Baringo -South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 across 5 sub- counties 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(E Partners -Jun, county Hay harvesting and baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500H RPLRP KCSAP -Jun, Loruk, Amaya, Nginya ng and Kolloa RenovationConst ruction of livestock Auction yards 13,000H Partners -Jun, Water Baringo South Upgrading of kibingor BH CGB Partners July 2023 Driling and Equipping of Maji BH 100HH CGB Partners July 2023 Purchase and Installation of 10,000Litres Instituitio CGB Partners Dec.2022 plastic Tanks 320No. Chemususu water distribution and metering 100,000 Partners 2022202 Tiaty Counstruction of Chemolingot Multi-Purpose 150HH Partners HEALTH Vitamin A Supplementation 90,449 (children 6 59 months) July - Dec 2022 Supplementation 20,000 July-Dec Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) No. of children 6 months estimated to be malnouris July-Dec Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) 41,533 Children birth 2 years 4.1 M July-Dec Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women 90,449 (children 6 59 months) 5.35M July-Dec counties Deworming 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M July-Dec EDUCATION Baringo Central Recommendation for feeding programmes 128 pry ECDEs wishers 384sags beans 8500x384 3,264,000 50kg of rice 35002,24 0,000 Cooking fat 40ltrs15,0 Cooking material fuel- wood, Chev ( cookma koibate Timely Provision of food. 91 pry ECDEs wishers",
        "Baringo_LRA_2016.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2016 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County August 2016 1 Thomas M. Kangethe (Ministry of Water and Irrigation) Eunice Mutuku (World Vision) Mixed farming Pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated Figure 1: Population by livelihood zone 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is divided into six sub- counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. It covers an estimated area of 11,015.3 square kilometres population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009). The county has four main livelihood zones. 2.0 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION 2.1 Current Food Security Situation Parts of the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). The amount of maize stocks held at household level are about 69 percent of the long term average (LTA). The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above the amount posted at a similar time in 2015, indicating favourable purchasing power for households selling livestock to purchase maize. Based on data from the Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) report, there was an improvement in the proportion of households in the acceptable food consumption category from 56.4 percent in May 2015 to 90.7 percent in May 2016. The report also indicated that the coping strategy index (CSI) in May 2016 was 15 compared with 27 during the same period in 2015 implying that household food security status is improving. The main drivers of food insecurity in the county include: pests and diseases in crops, livestock mortalities due to diseases and insecurity along the Kerio Valley. Others include lower-than- normal immunization levels and poor hygiene and sanitation practices. 2.2 Food Security Trends Table 1: Food security trends in Baringo County Indicator Current situation (LRA 2016) Previous season (SRA 2016) Food security phase Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of pastoral and agropastoral zones Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of pastoral and agropastoral zones Household food stocks 69 of the LTA 88 of the LTA Livestock body condition Good (in pastoral livelihood zone good to fair) for large stocks Good to fair for large stocks Good for small stocks Good for small stocks Household water consumption (litres per person per day) - Pastoral zone 1520 1215 - Agro-pastoral zone 1520 1215 - Mixed farming livelihood zone 2025 1520 - Irrigated farming livelihood 2025 1520 Terms of trade 72.5 above the LTA 49 above the LTA Coping strategy index 15 (May 2016) 27 (May 2015) Food consumption score 1.3 poor, 8.0 borderline, 90.7 Acceptable 13.6 poor, 30.0 borderline, 56.4 Acceptable Children at risk of malnutrition 10.2 12.2 Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.3 Rainfall Performance There was a late onset in the first dekad of April compared to the second dekad of March normally. Most of the county received above-normal rains with the central and eastern parts of the county receiving 90125 percent of normal while the southern and northern parts received between 125 200 percent of normal rains. The eastern parts of Nginyang and Tangulbei in East Pokot received the least amounts with Eldama Ravine and Central Kolowa receiving the highest. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was poor. Cessation was early in the second dekad of May compared to the first dekad of June normally although off-season showers were on-going in the county. 3.0 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS 3.1 Crop Production The long rains season is the most important season accounting for about 90 percent of total rain received in the county. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans, millet and cowpeas. Crop production contributes seven percent of cash income in the agropastoral livelihood zone, 35 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zone and 64 percent in the irrigated farming livelihood zones. Maize contributes 63 percent of food in the agropastoral and 21 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 2: Rain-fed crop production planted during rains season (Ha) Long term average area planted during the long rains season rains season production (90 kg bags) Long term average production during rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 34,318 38,140 1,037,871 800,650 Beans 20,320 19,626 305,513 269,148 Finger Millet 3,312 3,307 36,615 35,456 The area under maize production reduced by 10 percent of the LTA which was attributed to lack of input subsidy to the farmers as had happened in the previous season with Baringo North and South subcounties being the most affected. However, the projected production is 30 percent above the LTA which was attributed to timely provision of fertilizers in Eldama Ravine as well as favourable rains which boosted overall production. The area under beans was normal and the consequent production 16 percent above the LTA due to favourable rains (Table 2). Table 3: Irrigated crop production planted during the 2016 long rains season Short term average (3 years) area planted during long rains season (ha) rains season production bags) projected actual Short term average (3 years) production during 2016 long rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,971 3,417 58,752 101,540 Beans Tomatoes In the irrigated farming, area under maize production reduced by 42 percent as most farmers opted to skip the season in a bid to control Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease that was witnessed in the previous season. The consequent production declined by the same percentage due to reduced acreage planted. Area under beans reduced by 49 percent of the LTA as farmers preferred a particular variety of bean seed for planting which was not available. Correspondingly, production declined by 57 percent of the LTA. The area under tomatoes also declined by 37 percent due to pests and diseases. Their production was affected by Tuta absoluta leading to a decline in production of 36 percent of the LTA (Table 3). Table 4: Maize stocks in Baringo County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90 kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 106,883 154,622 Traders 44,887 44,667 Millers 10,837 3,782 22,715 18,450 Total 185,322 221,521 Maize stocks held at household level are 69 percent of the LTA as farmers sold their stocks to purchase farm inputs. The stocks held were carryover stocks from the 2015 short rains. Traders held normal stocks although they were buying directly from farmers outside the county and then selling to millers. NCPB held higherthannormal stocks by 23 percent because millers were not purchasing maize from the Board because it had discoloured. Millers were therefore purchasing maize from traders not NCPB which therefore held higherthannormal stocks (Table 4). 3.2 Livestock Production The major livestock species kept in the county are: cattle, goats, sheep, camels and honeybees. Poultry is gaining prominence across all livelihood zones. Table 5: Contribution of livestock production to cash and food in Baringo County Livelihood zone Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and Browse Pasture was good across all livelihood zones which is normal and likely to last approximately three months in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral livelihood zone where it is likely to last two months. Browse was also good across all livelihood zones and likely to last between 3 4 months (Table 6). Table 6: Pasture and browse condition Livestock Productivity Table 7: Livestock body condition Livelihood Pasture condition Browse condition Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Mixed Farming 3 4 months 34 months Irrigated 2 3 months 34 months Agro pastoral 3 4 months 34 months Pastoral Fair-Good Fair-Good 2 months 34 months Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Mixed Farming Agro pastoral Irrigated cropping Pastoral Fair to Fair to Table 8: Milk production, consumption and prices Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Pastoral Agro - pastoral Irrigated Mixed farming Current TLU per HH Normal TLU per HH Variation by wealth group Low income HH Medium income HH Migration Currently there is no out or in-migration but local movements were noticed in some sub-counties (East Pokot and Marigat) due to pastoralists moving back to the wet season grazing areas which is normal. Access to forage is hampered by insecurity cases along Kerio Valley. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Foot and Mouth Disease was reported in Tiaty subcounty and Pestes des Petites Ruminantes (PPR) in Mogotio, Koibatek, Baringo Central and Barwessa, Other diseases that were reported include Heart Water in Baringo North and Contagious Caprine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CCPP) which is endemic in all sub-counties. Heart Water disease claimed 65 goats at Yatya in the pastoral livelihood zone while 49 goats died due to CCPP in Yatya and Kollowa in the same zone. Vaccinations against Black quarter (BQ), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Sheep and Goat Pox and rabies were carried out across all livelihood zones. Water for livestock Table 10: Water for livestock Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres)per Household Price (Ksh)Litre Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres Irrigated 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres Agro pastoral 1.5-3 litres 1-3 litres 1 litres 1 litres Pastoral 1.5 litres 1-2 litres 2 litres 2 litres Livelihood Sources Return trekking distances Expected duration to last Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current (Month Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, water pan boreholes, dam Streams, Rivers, springs, water pan, boreholes, dam 11.5Km 1.5Km Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 11.5Km 1.5Km Daily Daily 3.3 Water and Sanitation The main sources of water in the county are rivers, boreholes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, water pans, dams and lakes (Table 11). Recharge to the open water sources was approximately 90 percent of their capacity, which improved water availability and access. Surface water facilities held approximately 80 90 percent of their capacities with most of them having water which is above normal at this time of the year. Table 11: Water for domestic use Areas which had long distances included; Laiwat and Nginyang in East Pokot where the distances covered were 3.5 5 kilometres which is normal at this time of the year. Water was free at open water sources, Ksh 2 5 at the boreholes and Ksh 10 20 from vendors. 3.4 Markets and Trade The main markets in the county are Nginyang, Kolowa, Barwessa, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Tenges and Sirwa for livestock, cereals and other food commodities. Market operations have remained normal with the exception of Kolowa which was disrupted due to insecurity. Commodities traded were maize, beans, irish potatoes, onions and tomatoes. The markets were well provisioned across the livelihood zones. The supply sources for livestock, livestock products and cereals were from farmers both from within and outside the county. 2 Normal refers to same period in absence of a shock (what usually happens around that period). Pastoral Streams, water pans, Boreholes Streams, water pans, Boreholes 48 Km 48 Km Daily Daily Pastoral holes, seasonal rivers holes, seasonal rivers 48Km 48Km Daily Daily Division livelihood Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water (Kshs.20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average HH Use (Litrespersonday) Status of Two Major Water Sources Projected duration of water availability in current water sources (months) Normal2 Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Current Operational Normal Operational Source Source Pastoral 2.5 1.5 3.0 3 5 12 15 15 20 holes holes 3 3.5 months Agro - Pastoral 1.5 1.3 2.5 2 5 12 15 15 20 holes Springs holes Springs 3 3.5 months Mixed Farming 0.5 2.0 0.5 15 20 20 25 Streams Springs Streams Springs 3 4 months Irrigated Cropping 0.5 0.5 1 5 15 20 20 25 Bholes Shallow wells Bholes Shallow wells 3 4 months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 6: Trends in maize prices Price (Ksh.) Figure 7: Trends in goat prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 8: Trends in Terms of trade Maize Prices The current maize prices were 20 percent below the LTA and seven percent below that of same period in 2015. The prices are expected to fall in August as harvesting begins in the farms leading to a low demand for maize in the markets as its supply increases (Figure 6). Goat Prices The average price of a goat was 37 percent above the LTA and 31 percent above that of July 2015. The price of goats has been increasing steadily as from February 2016 (Figure 7). The steady rise has been attributed to good livestock body condition due to availability of browse and water, farmers holding their livestock restocking as well as presence of food at household level. The prices are expected to remain stable in the next three months as browse and water will still be available. Terms of Trade The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above that posted at a similar time in 2015 (Figure 8). The variation was as a result of rising goat prices as farmers hold back their livestock as there was no need to sell them for food since it was available at household level. There has been a steady rise in terms of trade as from April occasioned improving condition translating into better goat prices. 500.00 1,000.00 Malaria Diarrhoea infection Number of Reported Cases Figure 9: Trends in U-5 morbidity patterns 50.00 100.00 150.00 Malaria Diarrhoea Number of Reported Cases Figure 10: Morbidity patterns general population 3.5 Health and Nutrition Morbidity Patterns The most prevalent diseases between January and June 2016 among children aged below five years and the general population include upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, skin infections and eye infections. There was also an outbreak of Hepatitis B in Lawan and Kaboskei in Baringo North. There was a noted decrease in morbidity for children aged below five years with regard to URTI and diarrhoea during the reporting period compared to the same period in 2015 (Figure 9). The decrease was attributed to improved awareness on health care-seeking behaviour to care givers. Malaria, skin and eye infections slightly increased because of poor health environment and lower thanoptimal immunization levels (Table 12). A decrease in the disease incidence in all the five diseases was reported in the period from January to June this year compared to the same period last year (Figure 10). The decrease is associated with seeking of early treatment, accessibility simple rapid diagnostic equipment at local facilities and increased outreaches. Epidemic prone diseases Table 12: Epidemic-prone diseases Epidemic January June 2015 January June 2016 No of cases Reported Deaths No of cases Reported Deaths Measles Cholera Dysentery Diarrhoea 15,853 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 11: children at risk of malnutrition Malaria 12,734 Typhoid Others Others Immunization Coverage Table 13: Immunization Coverage Percentage of fully immunized children in the district Source Vaccines Immunizations Percentage of children immunized against the mentioned diseases in the district Source Nutrition survey January to June 2016 66.86 OPV 1 OPV 3 Measles No survey done during this period January to June 2015 58.25 OPV 1 97 OPV 3 98 Measles 92.2 The percentage for immunization coverage increased during the period between January to June 2016 compared to previous year attributed to purchase of more fridges for preservation of vaccines and opening up of more immunization centres by Baringo County Government hence improving access to the services (Table 13). Vitamin A supplementation The coverage of vitamin A supplementation increased from 22.7 percent in January to June 2015 to 40.2 percent during the same period in 2016 for children 12 59 months. The increase in coverage could be attributable to additional supplementation in ECDE and during the malezi bora campaigns. However, coverage of vitamin A supplementation in the county was still below the national target of 80 percent. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The GAM in East Pokot subcounty was 23 percent and was classified as critical while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.5 percent (SMART survey, July 2016). The proportion at risk of malnutrition was 43 percent below the LTA (Figure 11). The most likely causes of malnutrition include; poor infant and young child care practices, poor dietary diversity and low micro-nutrient supplementation. Households are currently consuming 1 2 meals in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones and 2 3 meals in the mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which was normal for this time of the year. Figure12: Food consumption score trends in Baringo County FCS Trend 2013 - 2016 Borderline Acceptable Figure 13: Coping strategy index trends CSI trends Food Consumption Scores Most households (90.7 percent) had an acceptable FCS and were consuming at least a staple and vegetables on a daily basis complemented by frequent consumption of oil and pulses (FSOM, May 2016), an improvement from 56.4 percent that was recorded at a similar time last year (Figure 12). Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI for May 2016 was 15 compared to 27 during a similar time last year (Figure 13), implying that households were currently employing fewer insurance consumption based coping strategies less frequently to bridge food consumption gaps than last year (FSOM, May 2016). The most relied upon coping strategies included reliance on less preferred andor less expensive food by 77.1 percent of the households and reduction in the number of meals eaten per day at 68.6 percent. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is estimated at 50, 10, 30 and 20 percent in the mixed farming, pastoral and agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. The low coverage is associated with retrogressive cultural practices across all livelihood zones such as family members sharing a toilet being considered a taboo. Contamination of water sources is highly reported within the county mainly attributed to few poor sanitation facilities across all livelihood zones, reliance on unprotected open water sources and using one source of water to water livestock, drink, bathe and launder. Water treatment is minimal with households doing it only when they receive water treatment chemicals from the government. Hand washing during the four critical times was at two percent while open defecation was approximated at 96 percent in East Pokot (SMART survey, July 2016). Poor sanitation and hygiene practices could be a major cause of the prevalence of water-borne diseases. School Meals Programme Table 14: Coverage of School Meals Programme Name of Sub counties schools Total Girls Girls Girls Baringo north Mogotio Baringo Central Marigat East pokot Koibatek Sub Total Grand total 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions. The food security outcomes are based on the following assumptions: There is a 55-60 percent chance of La Nia conditions occurring during the October NovemberDecember season which will result in below or nearnormal rains. The available pasture is expected to last 24 months in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated farming livelihood zones and two months in the pastoral livelihood zone. Available browse is expected to last into the next rainy season for all livelihood zones. Maize prices are expected to fall as from August as harvesting of the crop starts while the price of livestock is expected to rise. The terms of trade are expected to improve with the rising livestock prices and falling maize prices. With the projected abovenormal maize harvest, there will be sufficient stocks at household level and markets will be well provisioned with the staples. 4.2 Food Security Outcomes from August to October Water availability and accessibility is expected to remain relatively stable across all livelihood zones. Pasture is expected to last up to the next rainy season due to the ongoing offseason rains in the county. Livestock production is expected to improve across all livelihood zones due to the continued availability of forage. Market provisions are expected to be high and the terms of trade are expected to improve thereby increasing households access to food. The nutritional status for the underfives is expected to continue improving. Mortality rates are expected to remain below the alert thresholds. Households are expected to employ the normal coping mechanisms although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone are likely to increase the number and severity of coping strategies than normal. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral, and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) while some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will be classified in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 4.3 Food Security Outcomes from November to January Although the OctoberNovemberDecember rains are expected to be depressed in amounts, pasture regeneration is still expected. Therefore, livestock production is expected to improve leading to improved milk availability at household level. Market operations are expected to be normal and markets well provisioned. The terms of trade are expected to be stable and above the LTA thereby ensuring that the households have access to food commodities in the markets. The nutritional status of children is expected to improve as milk and food availability improves. Mortality rates are likely to remain within seasonal norms. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones will remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will remain in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The food security situation in the county is stable and expected to remain so through to December 2016. Factors that require monitoring include livestock diseases and insecurity cases along Kerio valley which is limiting access to forage. 5.2 Summary of Recommendations Provision of water treatment chemicals Peace building initiatives Drilling of boreholes especially in East Pokot Training on water harvesting and conservation Employment of more community health workers Construction of cattle dips. Drilling of boreholes in boarding schools Increase coverage of de-worming in schools ECDs to be included in School Meals Programme Table 15: Sub-county food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security rank (1-6) Main food security threat (if any) Mogotio Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas East Pokot (Tiaty) Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas Incidences of insecurity Baringo North Incidences of livestock diseases Marigat Incidences of flooding Baringo Central Eldama Ravine (Koibatek) 6.0 ANNEXES 6.1 On-going Interventions by Sector Table 16: On-going interventions by sector county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh) Time Frame Agriculture Postharvest technologies promotion 20,000 MOALF stakeholders Provision and preservation of One year Livestock Beehives distribution 50 groups Department Agriculture Livestock Improved diversification of livelihood strategies 1.89M July 2016 August 2016 Disease control(vaccinations against BQ,LSD and sheep and goat Countywide Department Agriculture Livestock County and national govt Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition July 2016 October 2016 Pasture distribution , construction of hay and establishment of pasture plots in Baringo North households National government Increase in pasture production for improved livestock productivity 38. 3M July 2015 August 2016.supported by DRSLP project Construction of 7 markets Baringo North, Tiaty and Koibatek households Department Agriculture Livestock BCG and National government Increased access to markets for livestock and livestock products. 53.4M July 2015- December 2016. 4 markets supported by DRSLP project at a cost of KES Construction of milk cooler houses and milk processing plant Koibatek 100,000 households. Department Agriculture Livestock fisheries and dairy farmers and value chain stakeholders Reduce milk and post harvest losses and increased milk valueaddition. July 2015 December 2017.total project to cost 200M Water Mochon Chebinyiny borehole rehabilitation Chebinin 200HH Improve water availability, accessibility and quality 2 Months Ilchamus Silonga borehole rehabilitation Salabani 120HH County government Improve water availability, accessibility and quality 6Months Rehabilitation of water supplies and capacity building on water management ds of Pastoral, Agro Pastoral , 4500HH KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, BCG, NG Improve availability and accessibility July 2016 June Drilling and equipping of strategic boreholes ds of Pastoral, Agro Pastoral , 3000HH ADS, WV, WBANK , RLRP, BCG, NG Improve availability, accessibility and stability March 2016 Dec 2016 Education Baringo north Provision of food items (HGSMP,CSMP) Kipkata, Ngorora, Sibilo, Kelyo, Bartum Kaboskei County government ,parents, world vision, Action aid. Increased enrolment, Academic performance, high transition rates And retention. Ongoing Baringo Central Marigat Planting mangoes and pawpaws Peace meeting School water pan Primary schools Kaptara primary school teachers, pupils community -Increased access retention and transition rates at all levels, -improved health status 5.5 M Ongoing Health and Nutrition counties Scale up health facilities implementing full package of HINI All the Immunizi ng health facilities ECDE in Pokot county All Children 6-59 months (5900 children) A.C.F AMPATH Reduced cost of food stuff due to reduction in morbidity 2.2 M Ongoing Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 1.5 M Ongoing IYCN Interventions (EBF and timely introduction of complementary foods) County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 1.2 M Ongoing Iron folate supplementation among pregnant women County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 0.8 M Ongoing 6.2 Proposed Intervention Table 17: Proposed interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resourcescost Available Resources Frame Health Rapid assessment and mass screening Baringo County-all pastoral and agro pastoral zones MOHNDMA WVKKRC 300,000 Dec 2016 Conduct and scale-up of integrated outreaches Pastoral and agropastoral zones 20,000 MOH,WVK,K RC,UNICEF 200,000 Dec 2016 Link the malnourished from facilities to food distribution points. 100 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVKK RCWFP 900,000 100,000 Feb 2017 All the Implement the existing BCC Strategy to improve feeding practices among children below six months All livelihood zones 20,000 caregivers per subcounty-120 caregivers BCGWVKK 2,000,000 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Train CHVs on nutrition technical module All the livelihood zones counties BCGWVKU NICEF 1,000,000 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Livestock Pasture seed distribution, pasture harvesting and conservation support (mowers and balers) households Department of Agriculture Livestock and fisheries-BCG 2.4 M October Beehives distribution 100 groups Department of Agriculture Livestock and fisheries-BCG stakeholders December Disease control(vaccinat ions against FMD,CCPP,NC D,LSD) Countywide BCG, National government Development partners and September Livestock upgrading (bucks and rams) 40 groups Development partners and National government March Water Water treatment chemicals water purifiers de-fluoridation Vulnerable HHs across all livelihood zones 1450HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, 2.5 M Local capacity ( Community and County Organization al Structures and technical staff) 3months Rehabilitation of broken down water and irrigation facilities and capacity building on water and irrigation management ORO SDA SirataBH, KirimBH, Kapkun, 800HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP Existing infrastructure and technical staff 1 3 months Agriculture Pokot Expansion of irrigation County Govt, NIB,KVDA 3years Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers -MOALF 24 million Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Education Expand SMP HGSMP CBMP and relief food and provision of food storage facilities All locations 150 schools Ministry of education 5 0 M Human resource Purchase of: bee hives, goats and support value chain of the products All schools 155 schools (18852 pupils) -Teachers -Parents -Education office 310 M grazing field bushes for hives 2016-2018 6.2 Food Intervention Required Table 18: Proposed population in need of assistance County Population in the subcounty Population in ( percent range min max) Proposed mode of intervention Remarks Mogotio 48,129 Mugurin, Kamar,Molos, Kisanana, Kapyemit, Olkokwe, Majimoto East Pokot 133,189 Akwicahtis, Katungura, Riongo, Nginyang, Amaya, Komolion, Kapau Baringo North 93,789 Sibilo,Yatya ,Chemoe,Kalabata,Kampi samaki Baringo South 84,256 Bekibon, Mbechot, Chepkoimet, Poi, Kokwa island Baringo 78,095 Salawa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, Central Koibatek 118,103 Table 19: Non-food interventions (by sector) county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Require Resource scost Available Resources Frame Agriculture Pokot Expansion of irrigation County Govt, NIB,KVDA 3years Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers(seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers -MOALF million -Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Livestock Pasture seed distribution, Pasture harvesting and conservation support (mowers and balers) 520 households Department Agriculture Livestock 2.4 M October Beehives distribution 100 groups Department Agriculture Livestock BCG and stakeholder December Disease control(vaccinatio ns against FMD,CCPP, NCD,LSD) Countywide National government nt partners Septembers Livestock upgrading (bucks and rams) 40 groups nt partners National government March Water Water treatment chemicals water purifiers de- fluoridation kits Vulnerable HHs across all livelihood zones 1450HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, 2.5 M Local capacity ( Community and County Organizational Structures and technical staff) 3Months Rehabilitation of broken down water and irrigation facilities and capacitybuilding on water and irrigation management (WASH) ORO SDA BH, SirataBH, KirimBH, Kapkun, 800HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, Existing infrastructure and technical staff 1 3 Months Health and nutrition Rapid assessment and mass screening Baringo County-all pastoral and agro pastoral MOHNDM AWVKKR 300,000 Dec 2016 Conduct and scale-up of integrated outreaches Pastoral and agro pastoral 20,000 MOH,WVK, KRC,UNIC 200,000 Dec 2016 Link the malnourished from facilities to food distribution points. 100 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVK KRCWFP 900,000 100,000 Feb 2017 Implement the existing BCC Strategy to improve feeding practices among children below six months All livelihood zones 20,000 caregivers per subcounty-120 caregivers 2,000,00 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Train CHVs on nutrition technical module All the livelihood zones All sub counties UNICEF 1,000,00 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Education Expand SMP HGSMP CBMP and relief food and provision of food storage facilities All locations 150 schools Ministry of education 5 0 M Human resource Purchase of bee hives, goats and support value chain of the products All schools schools(18852 pupils) -Teachers -Parents -Education office 310 M Grazing field Bushes for hives 2016-2018",
        "Baringo_LRA_2021.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2021 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2021 The 2021 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the long rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2021. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The main drivers of food insecurity are poor rainfall performance, insecurity, COVID-19 pandemic, crop failure, crop pests and livestock diseases. Rainfall performance was poor, characterized by late onset and poor spatial and temporal distribution however, off season showers were received during the month of July. About 50 percent of the crop failed in the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving Fall Army worms were reported and therefore projected maize yield is estimated to be about 45 percent of the long-term average (LTA). The impacts of the COVID -19 pandemic are still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the long-term average (LTA) while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the Irrigated Agriculture Livelihood Zone, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains received in July. Markets were operating normally except in the pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The Pastoral livelihood zone had 39 and three percent of the households with borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. The SMART survey findings of July 2021 show that the Pastoral livelihood zone has a global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalence of 24.4 percent (Critical) and 3.9 percent respectively while stunting prevalence is very high at 40.7 percent. The Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones were applying unusual coping strategies in accessing food. Latrine coverage in the Pastoral livelihood zone is very low compared to the county average while proportion of households accessing water from protected sources was less than 30 percent. Decline in school enrolment has been attributed to prolonged school holidays occasioned by COVID- 19 pandemic, teenage pregnancy, early marriage among other causes. The Pastoral Livelihood Zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... i INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 County background .................................................................................................................... 1 Objectives of the assessment ...................................................................................................... 1 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................................. 3 Rainfall performance .................................................................................................................. 3 InsecurityConflict ...................................................................................................................... 3 COVID-19 pandemic .................................................................................................................. 3 Other shocks and hazards .......................................................................................................... 4 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ........................................ 4 Availability ................................................................................................................................... 4 Crop production .................................................................................................................. 4 Cereal stocks ........................................................................................................................ 6 Livestock production .......................................................................................................... 7 Livestock Migration .......................................................................................................................... 10 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 15 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .......................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ..................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ................................................................ 24 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions ............................ 24 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response .......... 24 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene............................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 27 3.5.4 School feeding ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.5.3 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 31 5.1.3 Sub county ranking .................................................................................................................. 32 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................................ 38 INTRODUCTION County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the ssouth, Uasin Gishu to the south west, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2021 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2021 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2021 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2021 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 12th to 16th July 2021. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) protocols. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April- May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the third dekad of April compared to the normal of second dekad of March. The county received an average of 294mm of rainfall compared to a normal of 299mm. Most parts in the northern part of the county comprising of Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains while the Southern part comprising of Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2). The spatial distribution of the rains was poor with the bulk of the rains being received in high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone. The temporal distribution was very poor with about 40-50 percent of the rains being received in the first dekad of May. The cessation of the season was normal in the third dekad of May. However, the county has experienced significant off-season rains in the month of July. InsecurityConflict Insecurity is posing challenges in the Pastoral areas of the County mostly in Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties whereby incidents of banditry were reported. The government mounted major security operations in the area in a bid to bring the situation under control. The most affected wards were Mukutani in Baringo South sub county and parts of Mochongoi ward specifically in Tuyotich, Kapkechir, Kasiela, Ngelecha, Sinoni and Chebinyini areas. In Tiaty sub county, the most affected wards were Ribko and Silale. Households in the pastoral areas that were affected by insecurity did experience stress in accessing food and other non-food commodities due to poor market operations resulting in poor livestock prices hence low-income opportunities. Normalcy is slowly returning in the affected areas with the government reopening livestock markets in July. COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 restriction measures are still affecting market operations. The night curfews are hampering movement of goods and services while uptake of health services is still low compared to the previous seasons due to fear of contracting the disease at the health facility. Figure 2: Rainfall performance Other shocks and hazards Crop failure The county did experience crop failure due to poor rainfall distribution, affecting about 50 percent of the total crops planted with the most affected areas being Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo Central sub counties, resulting in a projected yield for maize being less than 50 percent of the LTA Fall Army worms (FAW) Incidents of crop pests involving fall army worms were observed on maize crop reported with 21 percent of the area planted being affected in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Availability Crop production Long rains season are critical for crop production in the County, contributing about 80 percent of food requirement in the county. The rains are very important for recharging of water levels for irrigation and also farmers are contracted by seed companies. Baringo County has different ecological zones which are suitable for production of various crops. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish ppotatoes, ccowpeas and ssorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Income Agropastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2021 Long rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2021 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 31,083 41,133 466,245 1,028,325 Sorghum 1,676 1,800 12,570 18,000 Beans 15,346 22,505 153,460 450,100 The area planted during the 2021 long rains with maize was 78 percent of the targeted area (Table 2) and this is due to below average rains, the most affected sub- counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South and Tiaty. The crops are exhibiting different crop conditions with areas along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine having good crop but the rest of the crop is in poor conditions in other areas of the county. There has been reported infestation by field pests, 21 percent of the area planted was affected by fall army worm, reported in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties, this was because of the dry conditions. The projected production for maize is expected to be 45 percent of the LTA. The average crop failure in sub-counties are; -10 percent in Eldama Ravine, 70 percent in Mogotio,55 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 60 percent in Baringo South- and 50 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is 50 percent. The area under sorghum decreased by seven percent as farmers heeded extension advisories on adverse climate. Irrigated crop production Table 3:Irrigated crop production planted during the 2021 rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2021 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons Seed Maize 2,600 1,524 78,052 57,150 The area under maize was above the LTA by 16 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 50 percent crop failure is likely to be observed. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth take care of the crops. But in marketing women undertake the business activities. About 20-40 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water flows from the rivers. Cereal stocks Table 4:Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 302,458 290,864 Traders 45,893 34,928 2,087 1,056 Millers 12,362 8,382 AidNCPB Totals 360,713 334,174 2,087 1,056 The stock held by households is within the LTA (Table 4) and this is due to the carry over stocks from last years harvest which was very good. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 60 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs for the delayed long rains, in a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. The traders also had their stock 31 percent above the LTA due to replenishment of their stocks in speculation of price increase following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 50 percent of households depend on the markets for their food supply, most of them from Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones while few are from Mixed farming livelihood zone. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively low. The local millers stocks are higher than the LTA by 47 percent. This is because most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers) and also the anticipated looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest, the available stocks are expected to last for two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone against a normal of four months, while in Agro pastoral livelihood zone, the stocks may last for one to three months. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put in effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pasture and browse condition The present forage condition and expected duration to last is driven by the effects of the long and off-season rains. Cumulatively, there was a poor performance of both the short rains and the long rains seasons leading to decline in forage quantity and quality. The pastures are expected to last for three months in Mixed and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones which is normal and 2.5 months in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones against a normal of three months (Table Locust invasions affected pasture production in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South and Baringo Central. The hotspots include; Kolloa, Tirioko, Ribkwo, in Tiaty; Emining and Kisanana in Mogotio; Tenges, in Baringo Central; Mochongoi and Mukutani in Baringo South and Kabartonjo, Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman and Barwessa in Baringo North. About 30,000 hectares of pasture and browse (less than five percent of forage land) were affected by desert locusts. The desert locust impacts included; destruction of pastures, loss of livestock and decrease in honey production (Through chemical sprays for locust control which affected bee hives). Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions caused by banditry attacks around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Table 6:Pasture and browse conditions Livelihood Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming to Fair No limit to fair Irrigated cropping to Fair No limit to fair pastoral No limit Fair to Insecurity tensions Baled hay status Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions South 10,500 6,500 2 are held by KVDA 88 Held by farmers Central 20,000 6,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. ERavine 550,000 250,000 150-200 70 by farmers 20 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds North 280,000 142,000 100 by farmers from community stores and traders Mogotio 550,000 390,000 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder production but there are institution doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST (Table 7). The pasture species being grown is mainly Cenchrus ciliaris. Water for livestock Sources of water for livestock were normal although they had different recharge levels (Table 8). Water pans recharge levels were at 30-50 percent and the situation was below normal. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of long rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. -The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity. Table 8:Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Bore-holes, water pans. Water-pans, Bore-holes rivers The trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year (Table 9). The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. The adult males and male youth usually water the animals. There is no known effect of Covid 19 on livestock water. However, there is the hazard of the COVID - 19 pandemic occurrence and spike as the lack of health restriction protocols are not followed in watering areas where they converge. Table 9:Return trekking distances, expected duration and watering frequency Livelihood Return trekking distances (Kms) Expected duration to last (Months) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-2.5 Irrigated cropping 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-2.5 Agro-pastoral Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Despite the underperformance of long and short rains, the cumulative effects of 2019 short rains and 2020 long rains have sustained livestock body condition which is currently fair to good for the big stock and good for the small stock. COVID 19 has not been reported as having affected livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Birth rate The general birth rates slightly decreased across all livelihood zones, from three to 2.5 percent. The birth rates slightly declined, being attributed to below average pastures across all livelihood zones during the conception and gestation periods. The declined rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 10: Tropical livestock unit The present TLU possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment, are attributed by continued good rainfall performance during the 2019 short rains and the 2020 long rains seasons. The average translated to four LTUs in poor households as compared to seven in medium households (Figure 10). The present TLUs are compared to 3.8 in poor and 6.9 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Milk production, consumption and prices Milk production decreased, leading to increase in milk prices (Table 11). The decrease is attributed by low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. The decrease of milk production compares with last season and LTA. There was decrease in household milk consumption, and increase in milk prices, being attributed to decrease in milk production. Household milk consumption continued being high due to prolonged closure of schools. The closure has been due to restriction brought about by COVID-19 pandemic. Table 11: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk production per household (Litres) Milk consumption per household (Litres) Prices (KES) Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Agro-pastoral 75-90 Livestock Migration There was minimal internal migration due to available water and insecurity tensions, and cases of floods and swelling of Lake Baringo and Lake Bogoria. There was outward migration to Laikipia, from Churo Amaya and Korossi wards. Livestock migration will likely be minimal as the off- season rains received in the county will impact positively on pasture and water availability. Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were few disease cases reported as captured in Table 12 which did not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), CCPP and PPR was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 12:Livestock diseases Sub-county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken (Vaccinations) Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported Vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination Sub-countywide Sheep and goats Ring vaccination Kolloa reported but not significant Cattle camels No vaccination Loyamorok, Silale, Tirioko Cattle No vaccination Mogotio Subcounty-wise SheepGoats No vaccination Subcounty-wise Goats No vaccination Anthrax Kiptoim Cattle No vaccination Rosogaa, Lombala, Kapcheluguny, Cattle No vaccination Eldama Ravine Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination Rabies Ravine, Perkerra, Lembus Kwen cattle 9 cases No vaccination ,Ravine cattle 1 case No vaccination Baringo south Nyimbei Goats 9,640 Marigat, Loboi, Salabani Cattle No vaccination Baringo north Sub-countywide (Endemic) Goats No deaths Ring vaccination No reports Shoats No deaths None vaccinated Poi, Rondinin Cattle 10 deaths Vaccination not yet planned. Rabies All wards No deaths 170 vaccinated Impact on availability The County has adequate maize stocks that should be able to sustain households for at least two months from now while pulses availability is not adequate in meeting the needs of the households for now. The projected yield for both maize and pulses is below LTA thus the county will have to depend on supplies from outside the county to meet the demand. Milk production is below LTA and therefore it is affecting household milk consumption while the deficit has to be taken care of through purchasing in the local markets. TLU are below normal but are recovering progressively while livestock body condition is fair to good. 3.2 Access Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and lastly, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Other than in Pastoral areas where there were depressed market operations due to insecurity challenges, the rest of the county experienced near normal market operations. COVID -19 pandemic has also affected market operations especially for livestock whereby livestock movement is normally preferred at night but due to curfew this is no longer possible. The main livestock market of Nginyang in Tiaty sub county remained non- operational from early this year until July when it was reopened following an improvement in the security situation. Apart from the pastoral markets and more so in Tiaty sub county, the rest of the markets in the county were well stocked with commodities while the numbers of market players were normal. In the Pastoral areas, livestock prices were depressed and there were fewer market players compared to normal due to movement restrictions resulting from the ongoing security operations. In the Mixed and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones, there were less cereals in the market with even fewer buyers and this was due to low cereal demand as households are still keeping carry-over stocks from the previous long rains season. Market prices Maize prices The average maize prices were relatively stable compared previous month at Ksh 46kg (Figure 3). prices below the long-term average at this time of the year by 4 percent. The stability in maize prices can attributed availability of maize stocks household level in the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.47 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat by July was stable at Ksh.2,675, compared previous month at Ksh. 2,646 (Figure 4). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by four percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 3,833 lowest pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The stability in price was as a result of stable livestock body condition Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nov Dec Maize prices (KSH) Figure 3:Maize prices Goat Prices (Ksh.) Figure 4:Goat prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 59 by July, an increase percent in comparison previous month whereby sale of one goat was able to fetch 57 kgs maize (Figure This has been attributed relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 88 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 52. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 13 below. Table 13: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming LZ Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production 70.00 80.00 Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 5:Terms of trade 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use include; water pans, rivers, dams, lakes, streamssprings, shallow wells and boreholes (Figure 6)). Most of these sources are concentrated in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones where it receives more rainfall than in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Water is more accessible in mixed farming irrigated farming livelihood zones than in pastoral livelihood zone where its poorly served by rivers. Over 70 percent of the boreholes in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are operational while the rest are not due to electro-mechanical breakdowns (Table 14). These boreholes include; Akorayan, Ngaratuko, chepkalacha among others. Water quality challenges were experienced in some boreholes in Kinyach area in Bartabwa ward, Taimon and Sibilo sub-locations in Saimo-Soi ward and areas of Baringo south which rendered the boreholes non -operational as they contained high fluoride levels. Table 14:Water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operational No. of Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Normal Duration Water Last in Months Current Water Level in of Full Capacity after Recharged by the Rains Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 30 Water pan 2 months months 30-50 Rivers 2 months months 30-50 Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 40 Water Sources For Baringo County - July 2021 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Figure 6:Water sources The households using protected water sources are at 60 percent. Water in open sources is free while in protected sources the cost is stable at ksh.3 -5 but the final cost will depend on transport cost of the water to the households. The cost of a 20-litre jerry can cost ksh.20-50 depending on the destination of water and that 20 percent of households rely entirely on water venders for domestic use. These are areas of Kisanana and Emining wards, lower part of Saimo-Soi ward at Akorayan and Loruk sub-locations. The reasons for relying on vendors are long travelling distances to water sources, limited available protected water sources, unavailable water sources and poor quality of water in some water sources. COVID-19 regulations of frequent washing of hands is not observed due to high cost of water in these households. The most concentrated water points were found in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones where water sources are limited (Table 15). These sources get congested when there is breakdown of the nearby water points and also when the other water sources have been depleted. The congestion at water sources can increase the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic amongst the community members. By ensuring optimum operation of water facilities will reduce congestion at water sources hence spread of COVID-19 will be reduced amongst community members. Water 2 months months 30-40 springs 2months months 30-40 Mixed Farming Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 50 streams 2-3 months Over 6 months 60-70 springs 2-4 months Over 6 months 60-70 Irrigated Rivers 2 months Over 6 months 30-50 Shallow wells 1-2 months months 30-50 swamps 1-2 months Over 6 months 30-50 Table 15: Most concentrated water points Ward Livelihood Actual Name of the Water Point Normal No. of households Served Current No. of households being Served Reason(s) for Variation Ngoswe borehole Mechanical breakdown of Ngaratuko and Namba boreholes Chepkewel borehole It is the only available water source with good quality water. There are electro-mechanical breakdowns of Kipchemoi borehole Kapkun Breakdown of Mangar intake Endao borehole It has high yield with good quality water. Other nearby sources have dried up Lelen borehole Is the only available source which is operational in the area Mixed farming Mochongoi borehole -Mechanical breakdown of Manwari borehole Water Accessibility and Utilization According to Table 16, the average distances to domestic water sources were above normal for all livelihood zones but is projected to reduce significantly due to the on- going off season rains while cost of water remained normal. There was no waiting time for all open water sources in all livelihood zones whereas in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones waiting time increased due to the long queues in the concentrated water points. Water consumption per person per day reduced in all livelihood zones and this was attributed by the limited water sources but is projected to increase slightly with the on-going rains. Table 16:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption Ward livelihood Return Distances to Water for Domestic use Cost of water at source (ksh.per 20litrs) Waiting Time at Source(minutes) Average Water consumption per person per day (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 10-15 15-20 10-15 pastoral 15-20 10-15 Mixed Farming 20-25 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 10-15 20-25 15-20 3.2.5 Food consumption Food Consumption Score According to sentinel site data from the NDMA early warning system (EWS) for the months of July, the Pastoral livelihood zone had a significant proportion of households with a borderline and poor food consumption score and was consistent for the last four months (Figure 7). This was contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households among other factors. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, all households have acceptable food consumption score because of availability of adequate cereal stocks carried over from the long rains season of 2020. Income emanating from sale of seed maize in Irrigated cropping zone also contributed in maintaining acceptable food consumption score. Borderline Acceptable Figure 7: Food consumption score 3.2.6 Coping strategy Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones employed more coping strategies at 19 and 15 respectively, and this was partly due to low purchasing power caused by less normal market operations caused by conflict and COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 8). In the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, households applied fewer coping strategies. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity for children under five The three most common diseases are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) diarrhoea and malaria, which indicates a decline in trend in 2021compared to 2020 among children under the age of five (Figure 9). The decrease in malaria could be attributed to mass net distribution while decrease in diarrheal diseases could be attributed to promotion of hand washing in COVID-19 intervention measures Diarrhoea Figure 9:Morbidity for children under five years of age Irrigated Figure 8: Coping strategy index Morbidity for General Population As indicated in Figure 10, general population showed a slight increase in URTI and mmalaria cases in 2021 compared to the previous year. This could be attributed to poor adherence to COVID-19 measures and adults not making use of the recent distributed mosquito nets respectively. 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A coverage for the county between January and June 2021 compared to the same period 2020 indicate an increase in Vitamin A supplementation (Figure 11). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-11 and 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities and Measles campaign that were undertaken recently. Diarrhea Figure 10:Morbidity for general population 90.10 69.65 80.00 100.00 120.00 6-11 Months 12-59 Momth Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation Immunization The average county immunization coverage between January and June 2021 increased to percent, increase percent up from percent compared to same period (Figure 12). The percent coverage remained above the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunised children could be attributed to the just concluded Measles Reubella campaign as well as poor age estimates because child health cards were not being used, a factor that could have led to capturing of over age children. 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding and Supplementary Feeding New admissions Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding OTP New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions increased from January reaching its highest in March and dropped to its lowest in the month of May and started increasing and maintained an upward trend (Figure 12). This is attributed to availability of therapeutic feeds Figure 12: Immunization coverage Jan June 2018 Jan June 2019 Figure 13:Therapeutic feeding CHANIS Data (0-59 months underweight) Figure 13 indicates percentage of underweight by CHANIS whereby there was lower trend in 2021 compared to 2020 same period though it follows almost the same trend (Figure 13). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities such as CSB in the year 2021. Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been on an increasing trend since February with a slight decrease in June 2021. The steady increase in the rate from January could be attributed to continuous depletion of food stocks and low milk availability during dry spell. Figure 14:Percentage of underweight children under 5 years MUAC (125mm) Normal LTA Figure 15. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition measured by Family MUAC SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 conducted in Tiaty sub county (Pastoral livelihood zone), the global acute malnutrition (GAM) was critical at 24.4 percent while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.9 percent. Stunting and underweight prevalence was very at 40.7 and 44.1 percent respectively while GAM by MUAC was critical at 9.8 percent. 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context Currently most clients are utilizing public health facilities and the fear of COVID-19 has reduced among the community members. The number of supported outreach services have reduced due to security operation in Tiaty and lack of partner support in the six sub counties. The community health volunteers are applying the use of family MUAC tapes in assessing nutritional status of children under five years of age. At the moment, the Corn Soy Blend CSB is out of stock in all the sub counties. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions The county has ensured that there are hand washing facilities in most of the public places including markets, supermarkets and kkiosks while the use of liky tins have been promoted by health workers and reinforced by public health officers. Most health workers have been supplied with essential supplies such as masks, sanitizers, hand washing facilities among others. The community engagement and messaging are carried out at the health facilities and use of local FM radio stations. From observations during the transect drive on adherence it was found that there is laxity in adherence to the COVID -19 protocols at the moment due to emerging beliefs and other issues that negatively affect control and prevention measures. Currently there are no social safety net programs. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response The County has a functional nutrition technical forum which meets on quarterly basis, however the sub county nutrition technical forums are not functional apart from the one in Tiaty where the meeting is held once in a while. During the nutrition technical forum, the impact of COVID- 19 and nutrition programming are usually discussed. Nutrition team is involved in carrying out follow up and counselling of patient with lifestyle diseases and sensitizing communities through mother to mother support groups on COVID-19. 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene Interviews with the focused group discussions during the transect drive, majority of the households were not accessing their water from the protected sources (Table 17). Table 17: Protected water sources Water source Proportion households in Protectedunprotected Bore holes protected Rain water Protected (Water tanks) Shallow wells unprotected Rivers unprotected Water vendors protected Water springs unprotected Water storage and treatment About 95 percent of households store water in Jerri cans, while only 60 percent cover their water ccontainers with lids. Some of the chemicals used in treating water include chlorine, water guard, aqua tabs and PUR. Interviews with the communities during the transect drive indicates that about 30 percent of the households were boiling their water, 20 percent were doing filtration while 50 percent were not treating their water by any means. Majority of the households carry water on their backs (human carriage) for those getting from rivers, shallow wells and water springs, while majority of those getting from water vendors use motor cycles and water tracks to transport water. There are high cases of diarrheal diseases amongst children below five years of age and this was reported in all sites visited during the transect drive. According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 done in Tiaty sub county, about 54 percent of the respondents were aware of the hand washing practices. For those who did hand washing, the majority did it before eating at 97.1 percent (Figure 15). Generally, hand washing practices have gone up compared to the last survey of 2019 and this was due to the impact of COVID 19 pandemic. The possible sources of contamination include river Chemususu Lokoiywa River in Baringo Central- (Sewage waste from nearby school). This has led to increase in diarrheal diseases and there has not been any intervention done but the case has been reported to county public health officials. In Loboi and Bekibon areas, there were high cases of diarrheal diseases being reported and this was attributed to water contamination by human waste. Majority of the households have knowledge on critical points where they practice hand washing after visiting toilet, before breastfeeding, before cooking, before eating.and after changing baby diapers. 40.4 84.6 19.8 41.7 97.1 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 After toilet Before cooking Before eating After taking children to the toilet Hand washing at all 4 critical times Figure 16: Hand washing practices Latrine coverage The average county latrine coverage about 42 percent with Eldama Ravine sub county having highest latrine coverage at 78 percent while areas in Pastoral livelihood zone such as Tiaty sub county having lowest latrine coverage of less than five percent and thus practice open defecation (Figure 17). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 18: Food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2021 Long rains assessment, July, 2021 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Good-Fair Good to Fair Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Fair to good Water consumption (litres per person per day 15-25 10-15 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 10-15 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13 Agro Pastoral-17 Pastoral-13 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-13 Agro Pastoral-19 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-3 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline Eldama Ravine Central South Mogotio North Tiaty Figure 17: Latrine coverage 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centres with an enrolment of 48,753 children, 729 primary schools with 136,308 pupils and 179 secondary schools with a combined enrolment of 44,662 students. There was a decline in enrolment at all levels of learning. A decline of 1.3 percent in enrolment was noted in ECDE while pprimary and secondary sections dropped by 1.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. This was attributed to by insecurity challenges in Pastoral areas, drought, lack of school fees as some parents were rendered jobless due to COVID-19 pandemic, early marriages, teen pregnancies, child labour in irrigated tomato farms and bodaboda riding. As at July 2021, grade 4 learners and class 8 are on hold till 25th, July 2021 when they will transit to the next level of grade 5 and Form 1 respectively. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools Due to effects of COVID-19, the schools are in term 3 of 2020 calendar from 10th May 2021 to 16th, July 2021 which usually was from September to November every year and this is confusing both the learners, parents and the community. Many livelihoods were affected more so in the hospitality industry, transport and other key sectors that resulted in job losses and income thus affecting payment of school fees by parents. Urban Rural migration due to economic hardships led to some decline of enrolment in urban schools compared to rural schools. No digital learning took place in all the sampled schools in Baringo while child labour cases rose along river Molo and River Perkerra where there are a lot of irrigation activities that requires labour. Rise in cases of early marriages and teen pregnancies was observed whereby up to about 20-40 percent of the sampled households reported being affected by teen pregnancies. Increased cultural practices and rites of passage such as circumcision, FGM were also observed. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains in schools There were no damages reported on any school infrastructure emanating from the long rains season. However, the poor performance of the season was associated with decline in enrolment of students mostly in the pastoral areas. 3.5.4 School feeding Baringo is listed among the 23 ASAL areas in Kenya and benefits from the national government funding for Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) through the ministry of education (MOE). The following sub counties are directly supplied with school meals; Baringo North all 153 primary schools, Marigat 108, East Tiaty 58, West Tiaty 78 and Baringo Central 34 primary school (Table 19). A total of 46,803 boys and 41,994 girls are fed in the county. Table 19:School feeding Sub Counties No. Of Schools HGSMPLRPNON Total No. of Beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Central 3,392 3,340 3,392 3,340 Mogotio 10,928 10,165 10,928 10,165 3.5.3 Inter sector links The department of Health Services is planning to give vitamin A tablets to all the children under five years and deworm them while the department of water has procured hand washing containers for 367 ECDE centers. Some schools procured thermo guns using the money from national government. Girls in all the primary schools who required dignity kits did receive them free of charge and in the sampled schools during the assessment, it was observed that there were adequate stocks to last for one year. There was a challenge when girls were at home for the long holiday periods and were therefore not able to access the pads. Schools are being encouraged to have income generating activities (IGAs). Measles and rubella vaccines were administered to all learners aged 1-5 years and funded by ministry of health (MOH) and UNICEF Baringo South 12,708 12,169 12,708 12,169 Eldama Ravine Baringo North 12,275 11,546 12,275 11,546 Tiaty 7,500 4,774 7,500 4,774 Sub Total 46,803 41,994 46,803 41,994 Total 88,797 88,797 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumption According to FEWSNET seasonal forecast review of June 2021, based on the NMME and WMO forecasts, the October-December 2021 short rains season in Kenya is most likely to be below-average. However, the Meteorological department of Kenya has forecasted above normal off-season rains in July through to August in Baringo County. The security situation in the Pastoral areas is likely to stabilize following the ongoing security operations and consequently lead to resumption of normal market operations. Peace building efforts are paying off as some of the markets have been reopened for operation. Despite the ongoing vaccination drive, a limited vaccine supply is expected to slow down vaccination rates. COVID-19 related restrictions are likely to remain in place through at least the first half of the scenario period, impacting household income and food access significantly. However, some of these restrictions are expected to be lifted in October as vaccination rates increase and boost the economy to improve household income-earning opportunities and food security. Due to projected reduced cereal yield following the poor performance of the long rains season, household maize stocks are expected to decline significantly after two months from July, rendering most households to rely on markets for cereal access and consequently pushing up maize prices due to increased demand. From the analysis of, livestock prices from the NDMA EWS system, it is anticipated that they are likely to remain depressed in the Pastoral areas for the next one month but are expected to pick up to near normal due to the impact of the off-season July rains and the gradual reopening of the livestock markets. Rejuvenation of rangeland resources is expected to pick up in the next one month following receiving of the off-season rains in July which were fairly good and consequently, livestock body condition is expected to improve to good conditions. The off-season rains are expected to affect water sources positively, therefore improving on water recharge and shortening of water trekking distances to below average levels which should lead to improved water access, availability and utilization. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Minimal cases of conflict are expected to persist with the heavy presence of security on the ground is expected to tame a majority of the incidents allowing resumption of market operations in the Pastoral livelihood zone and therefore easing access to food sources. Livestock migration will be minimal as herders are likely to return to their normal grazing sites due to pasture recovery that is likely to take place in August while livestock body condition for the large stock will improve to good conditions. Milk production is expected to improve and increase milk availability at household level. Household maize stocks will remain near normal of LTA during the first month but will tend to decline to below normal by October. Livestock prices are expected to improve marginally mostly in the Pastoral livelihood zone while cereal prices will remain stable in the first two months but are expected to increase as the household stocks gets depleted. Recharge of water sources will be near normal in August but deteriorate towards October during the dry spell and therefore causing a drop in the household water consumption. Food consumption will remain poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone but fairly good in the rest of the county. However, food consumption will improve gradually towards October in the Pastoral livelihood zone as milk production and consumption will be enhanced due to the expected improvement in forage condition caused by the off-season rains of July. Households in Agropastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are expected to continue employing more coping strategies in accessing food compared to the other livelihood zones due to the prevailing low purchasing power caused by poor market operations. The strategies include reduced number of meals per day, eating of less preferred food and limiting of meal portion size. Malnutrition cases are likely to remain above LTA especially in the Pastoral areas due to below average milk production and consumption. The county will remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity. November-December-January Due to the projected poor short rains performance, regeneration of forages will be poor and therefore leading to short lived improvement but below average pastures and browse. Recharge of water sources will also be poor leading to less water availability for both human and livestock. Cases of resource-based conflict are therefore likely to be experienced towards January in the Pastoral livelihood zone as communities competes for the scarce water and forage resources. Internal livestock migration will likely be experienced by January in search of pastures and water, a factor that is also likely to trigger more conflict in the known hot spots such as Mukutani ward. Livestock body condition will likely be fair to good for the big stocks but may deteriorate further by January, causing a decline in both milk production and milk consumption. Milk prices will likely shoot up by November and will likely be above LTA by January. The expected deterioration in body condition will cause a decline in livestock prices by January mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, leading to a reduction of purchasing power for their respective households. Household cereal stocks are expected to be below LTA and will be on a declining trend, triggering cereal price increase, a factor that will lead to worsening of terms of trade more so for the pastoral households. By November, food consumption in the Pastoral livelihood zone is likely to start worsening due to the expected reduction in milk consumption. In the Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, food consumption is expected to deteriorate from November following the depletion of carry over maize stocks from the previous long rains season as the current season is not expected to replenish the stocks due to poor rainfall performance. High cereal prices will be a limiting factor on food access thus affecting food consumption adversely across the county. Households in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are expected to employ same coping strategies in accessing food but those in Mixed farming livelihood zone are likely to apply slightly more coping strategies as a result of dwindling cereal stocks. Nutrition status will be stable but will start to deteriorate by January due to reduced food quantities and quality. The county will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The Pastoral livelihood zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and the Irrigated Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The performance of the long rains season was poor and was characterized by late onset and poor temporal and spatial distribution of the rains while cessation was normal. Off season rains were experienced across the county. Significant crop failure was observed in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving fall army worms were reported. COVID -19 pandemic is still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the pastoral livelihood zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the LTA while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the irrigated agriculture, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains. Markets were operating normally except in the Pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are URTI, diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The county had acceptable food consumption score although in the Pastoral livelihood zone, there was a significant proportion of households that did not have acceptable food consumption. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were applying more coping strategies compared to the other livelihoods in accessing food. 5.1.3 Sub county ranking Sub County Rank (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) Poor rainfall Poor pastures Poor pastures Locust Malnutrition Insecurity Market disruptions Livestock diseases Low purchasing power Mogotio Poor rainfall Poor pastures Crop failure Crop pests Livestock diseases Baringo North Poor rainfall Insecurity Locust Crop failure Livestock diseases Baringo South Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor recharge of rivers Baringo Central Poor rainfall distribution Crop failure Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall distribution Crop failure Crop paste 5.2 Ongoing interventions Intervention Specific location Number of beneficiaries n timeframe n stakeholders Femal HEALTH SECTOR Vitamin A All health facilities selected 2.2 M Routine MOH supported by UNICEF All health facilities 867,00 37,00 38,000 Routine County department of health Management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) Selected health facilities across the county 231 M 54,892 Routine County department of health supported by National Government, UNICEF intervention (EBF and timely intro of complementary foods) All health facilities communit y units 54,892 County department of health supported by Afya uzazi Iron folate n among pregnant women All health facilities Routine County department of health supported by WVK and UNICEF Deworming All health facilities 33,683 Routine County department of health supported by WVK and UNICEF Cash transfer County KRCSWFP National government Mass screening County MOH, KRCS AGRICULTURE Construction of grain store Bartolimo 1000 HH 2018-2020 Department of agriculture Provision of certified affruitation seedlings north, south and central Mogotio Eldama ravine Tiaty 5000 HH 2020-2021 Department of agriculture Purchase by household orange sweet potato vines north, south and central Mogotio Eldama ravine Tiaty 2500 HH 2021-2022 Soil and water management Barwesa bartabwa wards 3000 HH 2 years MOALF Farm ponds development 500 M 10000 HH Continuous Department of irrigation LIVESTOCK SECTOR IMMEDIATE Provision of Galla bucks and Sahiwal bulls to groups 800 HH May- June 2021 KCSAP Capacity strengthening to youth groups communities on poultry training 0.2 M May- June 2021 KCSAP Provision of pasture seeds 2,500 kgs south, central, north, Tiaty and Mogotio 200 HH July 2020- presently RPLRP Vaccination against CCPP, PPR and north, 2000 HH On going RPLRP Partners diseases surveillance central and south Provision of pasture harvesting tools e.g. pasture cutters and bailing boxes Eravine central Mogotio south 500 HH On going KSCAP MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity building of farmers and staff All sub- counties 1000 HH Throughout MOALF Partners Construction renovation of auction yard 4,000 HH May 2021 LLACC WATER SECTOR Rehabilitation of broken- boreholes Tiaty 150 HH Sept 2021 Partners Rehabilitation of boreholes Saimo Soi 280 HH Aug 2021 Partners Rehabilitation of Barkibi BH south 200 HH May 2021 Partners EDUCATION SECTOR Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tanks and school meals programs ongoing central Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tanks and school meals programs ongoing Marigat Parents Improve access to schools, handwashing tanks and water supply north Improve access to schools, hand washing tanks, supply of water and planting of crops in school farms Tiaty East Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tank and school meals programme ongoing Mogotio Parents Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tank and school meals programme ongoing Koibatek Parents 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County security rank (Worst to best) security threatContributing factors Proportion in need of immediate food assistance () Tiaty Poor rainfall Poor pastures Locust Malnutrition Insecurity Market disruptions Livestock diseases purchasing power 15-20 Mogotio Poor rainfall Poor pastures Crop failure Crop pests Livestock disease 10-15 Baringo North Poor rainfall Insecurity Locust Crop failure Livestock disease 10-15 Baringo South Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor recharge of rivers 5.3.2 Non-food interventions countyWar Interventio Number of beneficiari Proposed implementers Require Availabl frame HEALTH SECTOR County Rapid assessment 150 facilities in the county Intensify screening and referrals County Provision of supplements UNICEF supporting through KEMSA and National government through county commissioner and KEMSA 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties Integrated outreach services 1,873,25 Ongoing County Smart survey 1.5 M January- County Provision of supplements UNICEF supporting through KEMSA UNICEF support through National government East pokot Smart survey UNICEF 1.5 M WATER SECTOR south Kibonjos 180 HH Partners 2 months Mochongoi Rehabilitatio Manwari 430 HH Partners 3 months Mochongoi Chepkoimet 260 HH Partners 2.5 M 4 months Marigat Kamonge 450 HH Partners 0.5 M 2 months Kalabata Spring protection and pipeline 500 HH Partners 3 months County wide Roof water harvesting structure for institutions 5000 HH Partners Months County wide equipping of boreholes 650 HH Partners 6 months LIVESTOCK SECTOR IMMEDIATE north Mogotio Tiaty Vaccination against LSD, CCPP and 100,000 cattle, 270,000 goats and 50,000 sheep Development partners 2.3 M August r 2021 Provision of pasture seeds Tiaty north, south and central Mogotio RPLRP SHAFSKSA ACTED 0.5 M August r 2021 MEDIUM TERM north and south Tiaty Mogotio Establishme nt of strategic livestock reserves 4 in Tiaty north south Mogotio MOALF Partners August r 2021 Baringo (all counties) harvesting and bailing 41,500 HH RPLRP KCSAP August- r 2021 machinery one per sub county Loruk, Amaya, Barwesa and Nginyang Renovation construction of livestock auction yard 12,000 HH Partners August- r 2021 EDUCATION SECTOR central Provision of school meals to learners in primary schools 12,242 6.7 M 3 years Marigat Avail water provision of water reservoirs 12,041 5 years north Water harvesting and supply of water tanks Tiaty Water harvesting and water piping to Nginyang girls Mogotio provision of water and water reservoirs 5 years Koibatek Avail water provision of water and water reservoirs 5 years AGRICULTURE SECTOR County wide Increase in provision of MOALF 1 year farm inputs to farmers (drought tolerant seeds, planting and top-dressing fertilizers) personne Trained farmers County wide Post-harvest technologies promotion 20,000 MOALF Partners l stuff 1 year"
    },
    "Baringo Short Rains": {
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2016.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2016 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the and County Steering Group, Baringo County and Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 February, 2017 1 Philip Muraguri Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Erick Ooko World Vision Kenya Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 3 3.1.1 Crops Production: .................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2 Maize Stocks .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production ............................................................................................................. 7 3.2.1 Markets operations ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2.2 Maize prices ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.3Livestock prices .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) ........................................................................................................... 11 3.2.5 Income sources..................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.6 Water availability and access ............................................................................................... 12 3.2.5 Food Consumption ............................................................................................................... 12 3.2.6 Coping Strategy ................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns ............................................................................................................... 13 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ................................................................... 13 3.3.1 Nutritional status .................................................................................................................. 13 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 14 5.1.1 Phase classification .............................................................................................................. 16 5.1.2 Summary of the findings ...................................................................................................... 16 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking .................................................................................... 17 5.1.4 Factors to monitor ................................................................................................................ 17 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions ....................................................................................... 18 5.3.1 Food interventions ............................................................................................................... 22 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions ................................................................................ 23 Executive Summary Baringo County is classified in the Stressed phase (Phase 2) of the Integrated Food Security Phase (IPC). The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase (Phase 2), while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Phase. This situation is attributed to the poor performance of the short rains season which had a late onset and low amounts. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 55 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.40 while goat prices reduced from a long term average of average of Ksh 2,636 to Ksh. 2,226. This has affected Access to food by households due to increase in maize prices and declining livestock prices, making the current terms of trade (ToT) unfavourable. Households are currently purchasing 40 Kg of maize flour from the sale of a goat compared to 66Kg during same period in the long term average. Low livestock prices have resulted to low purchasing power especially in pastoral livelihood zone since food commodities prices are high. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further as these areas are currently facing drought and resource based conflict in competition for pasture and water as a result of poor performance of the short rains, which had negative impact on household food security. The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Return trekking distances between the water sources and grazing areas increased to 16 Km compared to 5 Km normally while households were currently walking a distance of about 10 Km compared to 5 Km normally thereby limiting access to water. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been increasing from October and currently 17 percent of children are at risk. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level as a result of poor pasture and browse. The trend is expected to deteriorate further if no rains are experienced in the next two months or if there is no mitigation measures in place. Food and nutrition security of the county is largely determined by rainfall performance, as well as conflicts and insecurity situation. Crop failure in the irrigated and mixed farming zones have attributed to less food available hence reduced food intakes. Food stocks held have significantly decreased. There were market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets and displacement of population in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub County. Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease have resulted to quarantine in Koibatek sub-county. Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP) are pronounced in pastoral zones of Tiaty Sub-county. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of 11,015.3 square kilometres with a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). The county has Lakes Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. The County has six (6) sub counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo north, Baringo central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo south. The county is divided into four livelihood zones namely, mixed farming, pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and Approach The main objective of short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the short rains season of 2016, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 16th to 27th January, 2017 using multi- sectoral approach; the team used all available and relevant data in food insecurity based on the integrated food security phase classification (IPC) methodology. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Observation technique were also used during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 1: Proportion of population by livelihood Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a percent of normal 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The short rains onset was realized in the third dekad (10 days period) of October 2016 which was late, compared to normal second dekad of October. Spatial distribution was even with most areas across the county receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rainfall amounts. Temporal distribution was however poor where the significant rainfall amounts were received only in the second dekad of November. Cessation of the rains was early at the end of November, 2016. Normally rains end in the 3rd dekad of December with off season rains in January across all livelihood zones. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Conflicts especially in pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty and Baringo South sub Counties have destabilized markets and displacement of population. Over 1,000 residents have moved from Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian to Mochongoi and Marigat due to conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. Currently there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Marakwet where a police officer was killed. In addition there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Tugen in the border areas of Baringo and West pokot. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholders to reduce the current tension. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards The county is experiencing both in-migrations from Nakuru and out-migration of cattle to Laikipia, Nakuru and Samburu counties. Livestock movements from different parts of the county are prevalent in search of pasture. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in JulyAugust. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak was reported in Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Chemogoch and Kipsogon. Incidents of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) for goats and Pest des petit ruminants (PPR) have been reported. Widespread livestock mortalities are being reported. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwesa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo north, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. Poor infrastructure is hindering access to the markets in remote areas. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food available in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production and imports outside the county and livestock production. The 2016 short rains harvest were affected by below normal rainfall performance and higher than normal temperature impacting negatively on crop and livestock production exposing households to market dependency. Limited rangeland regeneration led to minimal milk production at household level. The available food is insufficient to sustain the households for the three months and therefore most of the household will largely depend on markets 3.1.1 Crops Production: The county mostly depends on the long rains for crop production. The main food crops grown are maize, beans and Irish potatoes in the mixed farming zone. There was marked reduction on area under cultivation for maize and beans at 93 percent and 85 percent below LTA respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 99 percent and 97 percent below normal respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to poor performance of short rains which affected crop establishment and poor choice of seeds. The area planted for Irish potatoes was relatively normal, since Eldama Ravine sub county where Irish potatoes are mostly planted received good amounts of rainfall at the begin of the season. However, the expected yields will be 24 percent below LTA which is attributed to poor temporal distribution of rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during 2016 Short rains season Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2016 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,205 15,400 Beans 1,276 10,773 Finger millet Irish Potatoes 1,602 1,684 12,852 16,944 Irrigated crop production: The area planted was 97 below the LTA for both maize and beans with the expected yields below LTA with 73 percent for maize and 91 per cent for beans. This is attributed to reduced water levels in the rivers in Baringo South, where most of the irrigation schemes are found, which affected their capacity to provide water for irrigation schemes. Crop loss was experienced especially along river Waseges which is used in Sandai irrigation scheme. Irrigation that depend on water harvesting structures like water pans in areas around Marigat has also been affected since most water pans have dried up due to low recharge levels experienced during short rains this and other uses. However, the areas area under tomatoes tripled since farmers preferred to plant short growing, high income horticultural crops. This resulted to over production which led to market glut and low prices of the crop Table 2: Irrigated Crops Area planted during the 2016 Short rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Short rains season 2016 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2016 Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.2 Maize Stocks Stocks held at house-holds level were 66 percent of the LTA mainly because of exhaustion of the previous season reserves (Table 3). Household food stocks in the mixed and agro pastoral zones are dwindling while in the pastoral zones households did not have any stocks and households are depending on market purchases. Diminishing stocks at household level is as a result of in order to obtain school fees for their children. The stocks held by traders are 14 percent higher in comparison to LTA. However traders are now disposing their stocks to millers due to high market prices offered by millers. NCPB is currently holding 87 percent of the LTA which is attributed to high demand of maize. Table 3: Food Stocks held in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90-kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90-kg bags) House Holds 437,540 654,122 Traders 63,658 55,889 Millers 19,041 20,122 4,799 39,461 Total 525,038 769,594 3.1.3 Livestock Production Introduction The major livestock species in the county include cattle, sheep, goats, camel, donkey, poultry and bees. Poultry is gaining prominence across the livelihoods while camels are also reared in the pastoral livelihood zones majorly for milk. Livestock contribute 88 percent to income and 21 percent to food in pastoral zone (Table 4). Table 4: Contribution for cash and food from livestock production in Baringo County:- Livelihood zone Cash () Food () Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral 3.1.3.1 Pasture and browse Condition The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation is attributed to poor performance of the short rains which resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. This has led to deterioration of livestock body condition. Pasture is expected to last for one month and three month in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone but completely depleted in livelihood zone as shown in table 5. Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Livelihood Zone Pasture condition Browse condition Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Curre Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last(months) Mixed farming 1 month 2.5 months Irrigated cropping 1.5 months 2.5 months Agro-pastoral Good to Fair 3 weeks 1.5 months Pastoral Depleted Good to Fair 1 month 3.1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is deteriorating as pastures and browse are further depleted. The most vulnerable are the lactating cows which farmers are likely to lose together with the calves as the situation worsens. The current body condition translates to low livestock prices which downplay the farmers purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed farming Good to Good to Good to Irrigated cropping Good to Good to Good to pastoral Fair to Fair to Pastoral 3.1.3.3 Livestock Tropical Units The tropical livestock units in low income households indicated a slight increase as compared to June 2016. However the TLUs were lower as compared to normal attributed to distress sales and mortality. The averages translated to 2.3 in poor HH as compared to 4.2 in medium HH. Table 7: Livestock Tropical Units Low Income Households Medium Income Households Current TLU Normal TLU Current TLU Normal TLU Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral 3.1.3.4 Milk Availability Milk production and consumption decreased as compared to normal in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones attributed poor livestock body condition as a result of poor pasture. The prices across all livelihood zones were above normal. Consumption stabilized in both mixed farming and irrigated cropping, but declined in both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones indicating malnutrition for children under 5 years in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones (Table 8) Table 8: Milk Availability Livelihood zone Production per HH(Lts) Consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 1-1.5 Pastoral 0.5-1 3.1.4 Water for Livestock The main permanent water sources are boreholes and Lakes; Lake Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94. The rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani. However, Kerio River has dried from Kapluk downwards. The return trekking distance for livestock has more than doubled compared to normal in agro-pastoral and pastoral zone (Table 9). This resulted to deteriorating livestock body condition and hence low livestock prices further downplaying purchasing power to households. Table 9: Livestock Water Variables Liveli Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1.5Km 3 months Twice Daily Twice Daily Irrigated croppin Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-1.5 1-2 months Twice Daily Twice Daily pastoral water pans, Boreholes Streams, water pans, Boreholes 3-4 weeks months 2 Days 2 Days Pastoral Water-pans, Bore-holes Water-pans, Bore-holes 2 weeks except in Boreholes months 2 Days 2 Days 3.1.5 Livestock Movement and Migration The county experienced intra migration, outward migration and also inward migration during the season which were are not normal as they have occurred earlier than expected. The main reason for the migration was to search for pasture and water. The migrations have caused resource based conflict, as well as introduced Foot and Mouth Disease in Koibatek Sub-county, hence imposition of quarantine in the sub-county. The main migration routes recorded were as shown in table 10 below. Table 10: Livestock migration routes Intra migration Outward migration In ward migration -Kamar, Kamar, Molos and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas -Sagasagik, Cheberen and Kimngorom to Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Subcounty forests. -Tiaty-RugusKomolion-Kiserian-Mukutani -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome -Sibilo-Arabal -Saimo soi, Bartabwa, Chemoe, Yatya, Ngorora Kerio Valley(Barwessa) Marigat Mukutani and along the shores of L. Baringo and lake Bogoria -Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei towards Laikipia and Menengai in Nakuru County - Churo-Laikipia and Samburu -Nakuru towards Maji Mazuri forests in Koibatek sub-county 3.1.6 Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases were reported during the short rains season which affected livestock production and caused mortality (Table 11). Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia(CCPP) Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 74 sheep and goats Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD) Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Koibatek Cattle Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kositei,Kamar, majimoto,Emining Shoats 50 shoats East Coast Fever(ECF) Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Sinende, Kabuswo Cattle 9cows Heart water Saimo soi ,Kolloa Shoats 119 shoats Mange Saimo soi Shoats 24 shoats Worms County wise All livestock Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle New Castle Disease Mukutani Chicken 3.1 7. Livestock mortalities Mortality rates for sheep and goats are normal at three percent. Cattle mortality rates have increased to four percent due to drought. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwessa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. 35 goats have died in Saimo Soi. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa,Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi which are currently under quarantine due to outbreak of foot and mouth disease and plans are underway to to carry out ring vaccination. There were also market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets in Arabal and Kolloa and displacement of population especially in pastoral livelihood zones. Price of a goat (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat prices Price of maize (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.2 Maize prices Average maize price in the county stood at Ksh. 55 in January 2017 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 40(Figure 3). In pastoral livelihood zone, maize prices was at ksh.60 per kg while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the price was at ksh. 30 and 35 respectively. The increased prices are attributed to diminishing supply of maize in the market coupled with increased demand of maize in the market since most households are relying on the market. 3.2.3Livestock prices Livestock prices are low occasioned by oversupply of livestock in the market due to distress sales; for school fees and fear of losses to drought. The market prices are likely to continue dropping due to decline in body condition.The average goat prices in the ccounty is Ksh. 2,226 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 2,636 which is16 percent below LTA(Figure 4). 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) In January 2017, a household was able to purchase 40 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with the LTA of 66 Kgs, which is 39 percent below the LTA(Figure 5). This is attributed to drop in goat prices and increase in maize prices. ToT are projected to deteriorate further until March as goat price further drops with the maize price increasing precipitated by the current drought. 3.2.5 Income sources The main income sources in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are sale of livestock, petty trade, fishing, casual labor, sale of charcoal and firewood. Currently some of these income sources especially related to livestock production have been affected by the current drought and conflict situations, hence households engaging in coping mechanisms to access food. Figure 6: food consumption score 3.2.6 Water availability and access The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; dams, lakes, water pans, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of the commonly used water facilities in mixed farming, agro-pastoral and pastoral zones are currently overstretched as compared to the normal. About 60-90 percent of waterpans are dry due to poor recharge Siltation. Remaining water in pans have about 30-40 percent of water available; likely to last for 1-2 month in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones and between 2-3 months in the mixed and irrigated zones. Normally, water pans in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones last until April. The main rivers in the county which are mostly in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone include River Perkera, Molo, Ol Arabal, Kerio, Barwessa, River Kinyo, Amaya which have about 30 percent of their normal flows mainly due to poor recharge, over abstraction in the upstream. Normally, at this time of the year, rivers are among the main sources. Return distances to domestic water sources have increased to 6-10 Km in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The normal return distances in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are usually 2-3 km and 3-5 km respectively. Return distances in the mixed farming and irrigated Farming zones is stable at 1-2km. In the mixed farming and irrigated zone, waiting time is normal within 15 minutes. Waiting time at the source range from 30 to 40 minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones. However, some isolated areas like Kamnoskei are waiting up to up to one hour and two hours in Kirim. Normally, households are able to fetch water within 30 minutes. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral livelihood zone. Water consumption per person per day average 20-25 litres in the irrigated zone, 15-20 litres in the mixed farming and 10-15 litres in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Most households in the pastoral, agro-pastoral zones dont buy water at source and depend on pans, springs and rivers. Irrigated zone depend on water from canal. Households purchasing water from a borehole pay between Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrycan. 3.2.5 Food Consumption The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 83 and 49 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2017. 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2017 is 20, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 15. Thus, households employed more severe coping mechanisms in January unlike in the previous month. The CSI for pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2017 is 23.8 and 15.6 respectively. CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 4.2. Most households are taking few numbers of meals eaten per day and reduced portion size of meals. Cases Reported Month URTI 2016 URTI 2015 Malaria 2016 Malaria 2015 DIARRHOEA 2016 DIARRHOEA 2015 Figure 7: Morbidity cases 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns prevalent diseases between August and December 2016 among under-fives and the general population are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Malaria, diarrhoea, diseases of the skin, and pneumonia. All diseases showed a declining trend from August to December 2016. Distance to nearest health facilities is high with the average distance being 35Km in East Pokot and 6 Km in Baringo North. Under five mortality rates and Crude mortality rate (CMR) is stable are also below the emergency threshold. 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The average county immunization coverage between July and December 2016 increased to 67 from 58 percent recorded in the same period of 2015; however the coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. Increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to opening of the immunization sites, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program. Though the data indicate a declining trend, most patients did not see the need to visit hospitals due to health workers strike. Vitamin A coverage between July and December 2016 average 36 percent but remains far below the national target of 80 percent. However, there was an increase of 8.5 percent compared to the same period of 2015. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central, East Pokot and Koibatek Sub-Counties. 3.3 Utilization Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the pastoral livelihood zones. Households in the Mixed, irrigated zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 10-12 litres and 12-15litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub- county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.1 Nutritional status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition increased from 15 in December to 18 percent in January 2017 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 8). Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the Pastoral. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months. Nutritional status is expected to deteriorate until April 2017 when the Long rains are expected. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 8: Malnutrition rates with cows milk as early as two weeks. Data from CHANIS indicate declining trend from August to December 2016. Admission of children with moderate acute malnutrition admitted to supplementary feed program (SFP) between August and October 2016 has also shown a declining trend. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock shared open water sources with people. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid and amoeba have been reported in the pastoral and agropastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households practice open defaecation in pastoral livelihood zone, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. 3.4 Access to Basic Education Enrolment has declined in East Pokot due to lack of food in schools. Koibatek was the only sub- County that registered steady increase of enrolment for both boys and girls. Early childhood development centres (ECDE) enrolment declined generally in all the sub- counties, except Baringo central where an increased enrolment was noted due to reduced distance of ECDE centres after the county government constructed ECDE centres. The cause of poor enrolment was caused by the discontinuation of school meals program (SMP) by the national government. Baringo County has a total enrolment of 141,288 pupils with73,359 boys 67,929 girls. ECDE enrolment stands at 52,111 with 27,160 boys and 25,570 girls in January 2017 compared to February 2016 where there were 74,040 boys and 69,142 girls totalling 143,179 pupils. School attendance for both primary and ECDE has been hindered by withdrawal of SMP. Hotspots in the education sector include the primary schools without school meals programme (SMP) in 6 sub counties of Baringo East, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio and Koibatek. Schools under Home-grown School Meals Programme (HSMP) are 218; those under RSMP are 113 out of 667 Schools in the County. Schools affected by insecurity include Kapedo secondary school, Silale primary School, Lomelo primary School, Kapedo Girls and Kapedo Mixed primary schools in Turkana East. Approximately 40 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying up of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Schools affected include Tirioko Ward (Chemayes, Kapunyany, Kimian, Kangiruru, Sukut, Krezee Embositit, Ngeleyo, , Kore lach, Ptikii, Napur, Chepkarerat, Chepotindar Primary Schools), Kollowa-Loiwat Ward ( Kerelon, Loiwat, Tilingwa, Lodengo, Pkaghit and Tukomoi Primary Schools, Loiwat Secondary School and Dispensary) and Silale Ward (Natan, Primary, Napeikore School and community, Naudo School and community, Akwichatis Primary and Dispensary, Nalekat, Riongo Primary, Dispensary and community) in East Pokot. 3.5 Trends of key food security indicators Table 11: Trends of key food security indicators INDICATOR LRA 2016 SRA 2017 Average water distance from source(km) Average walking distance of 3.5-5 Pastoral: 6-10 km Agro-pastoral: 6-10 km Irrigated agricultural: Mixed Farming: Cost of water at source Ksh. 2-5 Ksh. 3-5 Consumption (Litrespersonday) 15-20 litres in pastoral and agro- pastoral zones, 20-25 litres in Irrigated zones and mixed farming zone. 10-12 litres in pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated zones and 12-15litres in mixed farming zones. Goat Prices Average at Ksh 2,585 Average 2,226 Maize pricesKilogram Average Ksh 40 Average Ksh. 55kg (Pastoral Agro-p: 60, Mixed Irrigated: Ksh 30-35Kg Terms of Trade 63kilogramgoat 40Kilogramgoat Maize stock held 69 percent of LTA 68 percent of LTA Livestock Body condition Good to fair in pastoral zones for large stocks. Good for small stocks across livelihood zones. Pastoral: poor Agro-pastoral: Fair to poor Irrigated agricultural: Good to fair, Mixed Farming: Good to fair. Coping strategy Index Mean CSI: 15 Mean CSI: 20 (Jan) Pastoral:23.8, Agro-pastoral: 15.6, Irrigated zone:4.2 and Fishing zone: 14.9. Food Consumption Score Poor-1.3percent Poor-19 percent (Jan 2017) Borderline-8 percent Borderline-32.0 percent Acceptable-90.7 percent Acceptable-49 percent Food security phase Stressed in pastoral and agro-pastoral: Minimal in irrigated agricultural and mixed Farming zone: Crisis in pastoral Agro-pastoral zones. Stressed in Mixed and Irrigated zones Dietary diversity 1-2 meals in pastoral and agro- pastoral zones. 2-3 meals in mixed and Irrigated agricultural zones. 1-2 meals across the livelihood zones. MUAC135mm 15 percent 18 percent Vitamin A supplementation 40.2 percent 36 percent 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: Given the October - December 2016 short rains crop production was far much below average, the proportion of households relying on market supplies will increase. The available pasture will last for three months in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone. Available browse is likely to last 3 months in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and one month in agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zone. Food deficit in the county is likely to be met by imports by traders, and this is likely to push prices of maize and other basic commodities up Farm inputs including certified seed stock, fertilizers and tractor services are likely to be availed and subsidized by the County Government in a timely manner thus households will increase crop production during the long rains season. Distances to water sources for domestic and livestock are likely to continue to increasing thereby reducing income activities and negatively affecting livestock body condition. The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with good rainfall amounts 4.2 Food security Outlook February to April: The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). However, the agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zones are likely to worsen or expand their scope, meaning more people and livestock affected, and in Stressed and crisis respectively. May to June: Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate with most households consuming less than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to increase. Food consumption score is expected to deteriorate with households consuming less food groups until April. Coping strategy Index will increase with households applying more consumption based strategies. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase across the county. Most pans have dried up due to siltation and require urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that pans dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need to provide water and food to schools especially in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Vulnerable households especially in the pastoral need to be supported for the next six months to enable them meet their basic food requirements. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Highest food gap is in Tiaty. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of the findings Nutrition status of children under five years is deteriorating with 18 percent of children at risk of malnutrition in the month of January 2017. There are no food stocks left in pastoral zones and agro- pastoral zones and households are depending on market purchases. Pasture is already depleted in pastoral livelihood zone and poor in the agro-pastoral zone. However, pasture is fair in the mixed and irrigated zones and is expected to last for 2-3 months. Most livestock is grazing within the county but there is a lot of movements towards Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. Markets are operating normally with the average maize price being Ksh. 55 per kg and goat at Ksh 2,226. A household was able to exchange 40 kilograms with the sale of a goat in Janaury, 2017. Declining livestock prices is due to due to distress sales to pay school fees and fear of losses as a result of drought. About 80 percent of water pans have dried up due to high siltation levels. Water consumption is normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated zones ranging from 15-25 litres per person per day. Though water consumption has remained more less the same, return distances have increased to 6-10km in the pastoral and the agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some schools have no access to food leading to poor attendance rates. 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking Table 12: Sub County Food Security Ranking Sub County Main food security threat (if any) Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (2) East Pokot (Tiaty) Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Baringo North Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Mogotio Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, livestock disease. Baringo South Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict Baringo Central Depletion of pasture, high food prices in migration Eldama Ravine In-migration of Livestock from Nakuru county and livestock movements from other parts of the County 5.1.4 Factors to monitor Onset and progress of the coming long rains, which is the most reliable for agriculture Situation of water sources for both domestic and livestock Livestock movements and in and out migration of livestock Conflicts which may arise out of common resource use Livestock diseases surveillance and vaccinations 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Table 13: Food interventions Name of counties No. of schools Other Specify Total Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Girls MOGOTIO 10481 21240 BARINGO 14482 13682 EPOKOT 9006 7727 10298 8138 MARIGAT 10031 9572 12565 11926 B. NORTH 14482 13686 KOIBATEK 90 13937 13241 Sub Total 38077 35735 9006 7727 22024 20163 74040 69142 Grand total 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions On-going interventions: 1. WATER SECTOR County Intervention LocationWard No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame Water Trucking All sub-counties 1200HHs County Covernment July 2016-June Infrastructure development , WS pipeline extension, Water Pans and General All sub-counties 3,170HH County Covernment July 2016-June Rehabilitations WASH activities and Establishment of water management Committees and Capacity development All sub-counties 1860HHs GoK, CDF County Gov. JICA, WV, KRDP, NDMA. Action AID July 2016-June 2. LIVESTOCK SECTOR County Intervention LocationWard No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame Baringo Disease control(vaccinations against FMD and Countywide 137,000 Cattle 192,000 Sheep and goats MOALF, RPLRP Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition Nov 2016- December2016 Baringo Feeds distribution households MOALF, RPLRP Increase in pasture production for improved livestock productivity July 2016- August 2016 Baringo Recruitment of Farmers for Livestock Insurance 2,000 households National government Ensure HH are empowered to access feeds and livestock drugs during drought period Dec 2016-Jan 3. HEALTH NUTRITION Vitamin A Supplementation County wide MOH, WVK Improved child immunity 380,000 December 2016 Supplementation County wide Health Services Reduce severity of Diarrhoea 240,000 December 2016 Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County wide WVKUNICEF and WPP Safe life And prevent under nutrition 24,000,000 December 2016 IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) County wide MOH, WVK Promote proper child growth development 2,000,000 Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women County wide MOH, WVK Reduced child morbidity and mortality KSH 540,000 August 2016- December 2016 Pokot County SMART Survey East Pokot Ksh1,229,550 December 2016- Jan, 217 Deworming County wide MOH, WVK Increase food intake and utilization KSH 450,000 Sept.2016- December 2016 Total 27,610,000 4. AGRICULTURE All (Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central, sampling and testing County wide Increased food production and right use of inputs 400,000 July 2016-June Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine Fruits trees developmen County Wide Environmental Conservation and food security 3,000,000 July 2016-June All (Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine Green house farming County Wide Increased food production 2.5 Million July 2016-June Value addition , preservation and nutrition All wards 60 groups AL F Improved food utilization and value addition 560,000 July 2016-June All wards Normal Extension messages All wards Improved food security 1,000,000 July 2016- June Baringo North DLRSP Barwessa Farmers MOA Increased productivity and resilience to communities 50,000,000 July 2016- June Baringo North Gulley protection Kabartonjo Farmers MOALF Reduced soil erosion and improved environmental conservation 300,000 July 2016-June Tiaty Protection of Lomet agricultural Kolloa Farmers , AL Enhanced household food security and peace 1 year 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 15: Proposed population in need of food assistance Sub-County Population Projected Population Pop in need ( range min max Proposed intervention Remarks (Hotspots) East Pokot 133,189 20-25 Churo,Amaya, Putoro, Tebelekwo, Kaptuya, all locations in Tirioko, Kolloa, Ribkwo, Silale, Loiyamorok, EDUCATION SECTOR county Intervention Location (where it is located) No. of beneficiaries Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Time Frame NORTH Provision of items(HGSMP, CSMP) Kipkata,sibilo Kelyo,bartum and kaboskei GOK,CG Parents wvk NGOs Increase enrolment, high transition rate and retention Mogotio Assistance from Kiptoim, cheberen,kapterit, Pupils retention Baringo central Planting of mangoes in primary schools Kaptara, salawa, chesongo, kapyemit Gok, CG,Partners Food security 2014-2018 Marigat HGSMP,relief food from CG, planting of pawpaw,peace building Marigat,kimalel,salabani Mugutani, arabal,ewalel Ngambo Noosuguro,kiserian Barsemoi Gok, Moe, WFP, Trspupils,WVK Religious group,SCC Increase access to education,improve Heald status,improve income generation activities 2016-2018 (Tiaty) TangulbeiKorosi Baringo North 93,789 15-20 Kapkata(, Saimo, Kapkoiwa, Terik), Kaboskei Kerio (Ayatia, Kuikui, Maregut), Kabutiei: (Kapluk, Katibel, Muchukwo), Lawan (Kaptilimwo, Keturwo, Konoo), Kinyach, Kaboskei, Ngoroba, Barketiew, Yatya, Loruk, Rondonin, Sibilo, Bartum(Akorian, Kipcherere,Koroto, Taimon Mogotio 48,129 15-20 Kisanana, Ngendal, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Waseges, Mugurin Baringo South 84,256 10-15 Bekibon, Kibingor,Kimondis Tuluongoi, Kamungei, Chemeron, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny, Kasiela, Sandai, Mbechot Baringo Central 78,095 Salawa, Manach, Koitilion, Kabusa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, Saimet, Koibarak, Ochii, Cheplambus, Eitui, Kisonei, Sorok Koibatek 118,103 Muserechi, Madina, Esageri , Saos 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions 1. WATER Sub County Intervention Location Ward No. of beneficiarie Proposed Implementer Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame All Sub counties Provision of PVC tanks of10,000 lts Capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres Institutions County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, 10.8M Improved roof structures and technical backstopping By June 2017 All Sub Counties Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community Ws households County Government, 14.5 M Water infrastructural facilities June 2017 All Sub Counties Water trucking and Water treatment Chemicals Institutions County Government, Human reso June 2017 All Sub Counties Design and Construction of Multi-purpose 55,000 County Government, Land technical expertise 2015 2017 Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Mechanized de- silting and expansion of 24No. Critical water pans while Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio 45,000Hous eholds County Government, Land technical expertise Feb 2017- April 2017 2. LIVESTOCK Baringo Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock -Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 41,500 HH Department Agriculture Livestock fisheries- 54.088 M Jan 2017-April,2017 Baringo Water tracking to ease conflict between livestock, domestic and schools BaringoN -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 41,500 HH Water Budget Jan 2017-April,2017 Baringo Disease control(vaccinati Countywide National 8,273M Jan 2017-April,2017 ons against FMD,CCPP, NCD,LSD) government Development partners and Baringo Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle 2,000 households Department Agriculture Livestock and fisheries stakeholders Feb 2017-April,2017 Baringo Emergency Livestock offtake Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 2,000HH BCG(MOAL F),Nat. Govt. Feb 2017-April,2017 3. HEALTH NUTRITION Rapid Assessment Baringo County 94,000 MOHNDM AWVKKR 900,000 300,000 Feb 2017 Intensify Mass screening and referrals Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub- counties 94,000 MOHWV WFPKRC 846,000 200,000 February 2017 Provision of supplements facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVK KRCWFP 900,000 100,000 February 2017 Integrated outreach services 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 counties 96,850 MOH WVK KSH 1,873,250 267,600 February SMART Survey County 654,000 MOH WVK 3,000,000,000 340,000 June 2017 Total 5,833,250 4. AGRICULTURE Provision of Relief Inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to Farmers (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet) 18 Wards 15,200 Households (15,200 acres ALF, NDMA, and other Stakeholders Seeds (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet. Fertilizers (Basal and Top dressing) Fuel, Subsistence allowance for officers Total Kshs 167,580,000 Farms Feb 2017-March 2017 Subsidized Land preparation for affected households 18 Wards 15, 200 Households Tractors, Fuel, Subsistence allowance. Total Kshs:10,000,000 County Tractors, AMS station Feb,2017-March, 2017 Asset creation programme 25 Wards 1,000 HH MoALF, NDMA, WFP and other Stakeholders Cash, Subsistence personnel, motor vehicles Vehicles, fuel 2017-2022 Tiaty Expansion of irrigation Kolowa County Govt, NIB, KVDA 2years Fencing of irrigation scheme Kolowa County Govt, NIB, KVDA Poles 1 year County wide Mapping out of areas for construction of water dams for irrigation Tirioko, Ribkwo, Silale Kollowa wards 10,000 County , and National governments 10 Billion -Seasonal rivers -Fertile land -Labour 5 years Mogotio Fruit Trees Establishment MOALF, KVDA, KARI, HCDA, Seedlings Funds Skilled Personnel Unskilled Labour March 2017 to June Mogotio conservation and water harvesting Kipngoro Cheberen MOALF MOWI, World vision Funds Springs Land labour March 2017- June 2017 Mogotio Green Houses -County department of Agriculture -Hortipro -Red cross -Amiran Kenya ltd Green Houses Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers Water One year Mogotio Drip kits County department of Agriculture -Hortipro -Red cross Drip kits Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers Water One year -Amiran Kenya ltd Mogotio Affruitation -County department of Agriculture Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers One year Baringo north Environmental conservation Barwessa a wards MOALFMO Funds By 2017 Baringo north Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses Barwessa aSaimo soi wards County government Construction materials and a shed net Feb, 2017- June 2017 5. EDUCATION Baringo north Regular feeding programme to all schools. locations Ministry of agriculture Provision of food items(beans, maize, rice and cooking oil Human resource Jan 2017 Feb 2018 Provision of improved seeds to the community. improving of food storage techniques in schools and community locations 150 schools Ministry of agriculture, Pesticides, storage structures, Improved subsidized seeds to farmers and schools. Land, labour Jan 2017 Feb 2018 Mogotio Be included in the HGSFP Kiptoim, Cheberen and Sirwa MOESTCou Food or Money Manpower and Physical facilities 3 Years Marigat Boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas Mukutani Mochong oi zones 10 schools -NGOs -County Government -Dormitories -Food supply -Water By end of 2017 East Pokot Purchase of: -bee hives -goats -camels -cows schools pupils -Teachers -Parents -Education office -Goats -Beehives -Camels -Cows -Food Grazing field Bushes for hives 2017-2018 Baringo Central Improve honey production Kapkelel -Line ministries -Community -Hives Agriculture -Technical advice -Land -Support from the community",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2015.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2015 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County February 2016 1 Victoria Amwoliza Gioto (National Drought Management Authority) Kennedy Osano (World Food Programme) and Joseph Chege (USAID) INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 3 County Background.......................................................................................................... 3 Current Factors Affecting Food Security ......................................................................... 3 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION ....................................................................... 3 Food Security Trends ....................................................................................................... 4 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 4 Current Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................ 4 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS ....................... 5 Crop Production ............................................................................................................... 5 Livestock Production........................................................................................................ 6 Water and Sanitation ........................................................................................................ 8 Markets and Trade ............................................................................................................ 9 Health and Nutrition ....................................................................................................... 10 Education ........................................................................................................................ 12 Coping Mechanisms ....................................................................................................... 13 On-going Interventions by Sector .................................................................................. 14 Sub-County Ranking ...................................................................................................... 17 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ....................................................................................... 17 Prognosis Assumptions .................................................................................................. 17 Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months .................................................... 17 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 18 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 18 Summary of Recommendations ..................................................................................... 18 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................. 18 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) ...... 18 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) ................................................................ 19 INTRODUCTION County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of 11,015.3 square kilometres population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009 census report). The county has Lakes Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. It has four main livelihood zones: mixed farming, pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood zone is 43 percent, 31percent, 22 percent and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). It is divided into six sub-counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. Current Factors Affecting Food Security The current factors affecting food security include livestock pests and diseases, poor road and water infrastructure, poor rainfall distribution and untimely access of certified seeds. COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The performance of the short rains season was normal to above normal. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was fair. Currently the total maize stocks held in the county are about 89 percent of the normal. Current meal frequency for children under-five and adults is at an average of 2 3 meals a day across all the livelihood zones which are normal. Water consumption in all livelihood zones is above the Long Term Average (LTA): in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones it is 12 15 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 10 12 litres, while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones it is 15 20 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 12 15 litres. The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC 135 millimetres) in January 2016 was 12 percent which was below the LTA of 16.6 percent. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate was 6.9 percent (Kenya demographic health survey, 2014). The mean coping strategy index (CSI) in December 2015 was 29 compared with 21 in December 2014, implying that households were engaging more frequently in insurance coping strategies. Terms of trade are 68 compared with LTA of 66, a three percent increase. Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 1. Population Distribution by Livelihood Food Security Trends During the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) of 2015, the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones were classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones were classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1).With fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution of short rains, the county phase classification has remained the same. In May 2015, household food consumption scores were 15 percent, 51 percent and 34 percent for poor, borderline and acceptable categories respectively. However, by December 2015, the households with poor borderline and acceptable food consumption scores had improved to eight, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The available maize stocks are estimated to last for 3 4 months in mixed farming livelihood zone whereas pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent. Households are able to consume 2 3 meals per day which is similar to the previous season. Household milk production in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones was 1.5 litres compared to the normal of 2 litres per day. Milk consumption was 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres. Milk production and consumption remained similar to the previous season. Since August 2015, water consumption has remained stable at 17.5 liters per person per day. Terms of trade have improved in the pastoral livelihood zone by eight percent in the last six months where a household could purchase 68 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with 63 kilograms in the previous season. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC 135 millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016, indicative of an improvement in nutrition levels. Rainfall Performance The onset was timely in the second dekad (10 day period) of October. Rainfall amounts were generally above percent normal characterized by fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution. Most of the Upper Northern and Southern Eastern tip part of the county especially Kolowa and parts of Kisamana received 140 to 200 percent of normal rainfall. The lower Northern part of the county received 125-140 percent of normal rainfall including areas of Bartabwa, Kabartonjo Mukutani. Western, Northeastern, South Western and Upper Southern received 90-125 percent of normal rainfall. Rainfall cessation was timely in the third dekad of December, although off season rains continued into January 2016 across all livelihood zones. Current Shocks and Hazards The reported diseases in the county included; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Koibatek sub- county, Contagious Caprine Pleura pneumonia (CCPP) across all livelihood zones, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), new castle disease across all livelihood zones, East Coast Fever (ECF) in Figure 2. Rainfall performance Koibatek and Churo ward in East Pokot, Lumphy Skin Disease at Barwessa ward and Mogotio- Cheberen, and the ongoing rite of passage in East Pokot. IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS Crop Production The County is most depended on long rains for crop production. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans and cowpeas. Crop production contributes 20, 10 and five percent to food in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. It also contributes 35 percent, four percent and 60 percent to income in the same livelihood zones respectively. Table 1. Rain fed Crop production Area planted during 2015 Short rains season Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2015 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,394 1,205 13,940 15,062 Beans 1,663 1,276 11,695 10,773 Cowpeas Area under cultivation for maize crop increased by 189 hectares indicative of 16 percent increase above the LTA attributed to above normal rainfall and managed incidences of Maize Lethal Neocrotic Disease (MLND). The hectares under beans and cowpeas increased by 387 and 45 hectares respectively above LTA which is attributed to enhanced short rains and widespread sensitization on utilization of above normal rains. However, there was a decrease in projected maize production by 7.44 percent compared to the LTA (Table 1), attributed to delayed planting in some areas consequently the received rains not supporting the crop to physiological maturity. For beans production increased by nine percent while for cow peas production increased significantly by 245 percent compared to the LTA due to above normal rainfall which led to maturity of the crops in most of the zones that they were established. The area planted for other crops such as Irish potatoes, peas, finger millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes during the short rains also improved due to intensified campaigns to utilize above normal rains. Irrigated Crop Table 2. Irrigated Crops Production Area planted during the 2015 Short rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Short rains season (ha) 2015 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2015 Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 62,500 Kales Water melon 1800 MT 1600 MT Irrigation is mainly practiced in Marigat, and Baringo North sub counties. The irrigated area of maize and kales increased by eight and 13 percent while that of tomatoes and water melon increased by four and 13 percent respectively compared to the LTA (Table 2). The increase in the hectare for all the four main crops could be attributed to increased water volumes in the rivers that feed the irrigation areas as a result of enhanced rains in the upper areas and widespread sensitization to utilize the above normal rains by the Ministry of Agriculture. Production of maize and kales increased by eight and 14 percent respectively while tomatoes and water melon increased four and 12.5 percent respectively compared to the LTA. Maize stocks Table 3 Maize Stocks in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90- kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90-kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 363,514 414,835 Traders 84,639 87,209 Millers 17,016 18,956 30,840 37,226 Total 496,009 558,226 Stocks held at households decreased by 12 percent compared to LTA. For traders and millers, the stocks decreased by three percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA as result of poor harvest of 2015 long rains season across all livelihood zones. NCPB stocks decreased by 17 percent compared with LTA and this is attributed to low supply and increased purchases from millers and traders. In the mixed farming zone stocks are expected to last for three to four months however both the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent which is normal. Livestock Production The major livestock in the county are cattle, goats and sheep. Production of honey is significant for income generation especially in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 23, 50, 88 and eight percent respectively to cash income. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 25, 20 21 and eight percent to food income respectively Pasture and Browse Pasture condition was good in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone and fair across the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone which was slightly better than normal with exceptions in areas of agro-pastoral areas of Majimoto and Kamar, Pastoral areas of Mondi, Silale, Akwichatis, Sibilo, Barketiew, Akorian and irrigated areas of Kiserian where the conditions were poor. Table 4 Pasture Duration Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Current 1-2 months 1-2 months 3-4 months 3-4 months Normal 1 month 2 months 3 months 3 months In the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones on farm crop residues were used to supplement livestock feeds. Browse condition is good across the mixed farming, irrigated and the agro-pastoral livelihood zones but fair in pastoral livelihood zone. The browser condition is normal at this time of the year and is expected to last for two months with an exception of pastoral livelihood zone where it is to last for one month. Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was good to fair across all livelihood zones which is above normal except in the localized areas named above which was fair. Normally, the condition is fair across all the livelihood zones at this time of the year but for goats and sheep was good which is normal. Birth rate and Tropical livestock Units (TLU) The TLU in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone was 1.9 for the poor households compared to normal of three per household while 3.2 for medium households compared to 3.7 the same season last year. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the TLU was 2.3 for poor while for medium households were 3.95 compared to 4.2 TLU the same season last year. A variation on average number of livestock was attributed to seasonal rainfall variations affecting forage availability and livestock diseases. The birth rates are normal for all livestock species but expected to decline attributed to livestock diseases, availability of forage and distances to water Milk availability and Consumption Milk availability at household level varies across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones households are producing 1.5 litres of milk compared to normal of two litres. Milk consumption in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones at household level is 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres of which the deficit of one litre is from purchases. Milk availability in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood was at 4.5 litres per day per household which is normal. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, households currently consume two litres which is normal at this time of the year. The current price of milk is Ksh 60 75 per litre in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which is normal. However, for the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone the cost of milk is normal at Ksh 50 per litre which is normal at this time of the year. Water for Livestock The major water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, streams, and rivers. The permanent natural sources are Lakes Baringo, Kamnarok and Lake 94; the rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Waseges, Molo, Arabal and Mukutani. The current trekking return distance from grazing to watering points is 4 7 kilometres which were normal in the pastoral livelihood zone with exception of Tiaty (Mondi ward) where the return distances were 7 10 kilometres. In the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones, the return distance to water source was 1 3 kilometres which was normal. Water for livestock is expected to last for 1.5 months in pastoral, two months in agro-pastoral and throughout in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones which are normal. The frequency of watering livestock in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone is daily. However for the pastoral livelihood zone it is after every other day which is normal at this season. Migration The main grazing route encountered include Marigat-Arabal due to improved security, East Pokot towards Paka and Chesirimion, Maji-moto to L. Bogoria in search of pastures, Marigat to Kipcherere and Sibilo as fall back after improvement of pastures in those areas, Baringo North towards Barwessa. The normal out migration route was to Elgeiyo Marakwet County. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The reported diseases in the county were FMD in Koibatek sub-county, CCPP across all livelihood zones, PPR in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), New Castle Disease in Kipsasaraman, Salawa, ECF Koibatek, Baringo north, Baringo Central Mogotio-Kelelwa, Kipsogon, Sinende, Lumphy Skin Disease at Kerio Valley area and Mogotio-Cheberen, Rabies Baringo Central, Mange-Sibilo, Kolowa and Yatya and Blackquarter Baringo North-Yatya. The county reported 80 mortalities of cattle and 40 goats and sheep due to bloat. Water and Sanitation Major water sources The current main water sources in Baringo County are riversstreams, springs, lakes, boreholes and pansdams. In the mixed farming zone along the highlands of Tugen Hills, rivers, streams and springs are the main water sources while water pans, boreholes and to some extent riversstreams are the main water sources in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. Most open water sources had approximately 70-80 percent recharge level. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, recharge was between 80 to 90 percent attributed to the October-November-December (OND) heavy rains however in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the recharge levels were 60-70 percent attributed to high evaporation due to high temperatures and high levels of siltation. Distance to water sources The current return distances to water sources are 3 5 kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zone, 3 4 kilometres in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and 0.52.5 kilometres in the mixed farming livelihood zone and irrigated livelihood zones compared with the normal of 4 6 kilometres, 45 kilometres, 0.52 kilometres in the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones respectively. Waiting Time The waiting time at water source was within the range of 5 10 minutes in both the pastoral livelihood zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Mixed farming waiting time was within 2 3 minutes which is normal. Exceptional points like Kamar, Koibos, Molos and Majimoto, in Mogotio Sub-County, Bekibon, kapkun, Mbechot, Poi, Tuluongoiin Baringo south and Kasilangwa, Amaya and Keriwok in East Pokot Sub-county, the distance to water sources ranges between seven to eight kilometres and waiting time of 40 60 minutes. Figure 3: Maize prices trends for Baringo County Price (Ksh. kg) Cost of water and consumption The cost of water varies across all livelihood zones. Water drawn from pans and rivers is free. However, from boreholes and piped schemes a 20 litre jerrican costs Ksh 2 5. In both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, this is normal while in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the cost of water is Ksh 2 3 which is normal. Water consumption is between 12 15 litres per person per day compared to the LTA of 10 15 litres per person per day in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone whereas in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone water consumption is at 15 - 20 litres per person per day compared to LTA of 12 15 litres per person per day. Sanitation and Hygiene Water in rivers, streams and pans were contaminated with human waste and upstream human activities. Water borne diseases such as typhoid and dysentery were common in the county especially in the pastoral and agropastoral zones for instance in Kambi ya Wakulima in Mogotio. About 95 percent of community members in pastoral and agro-pastoral do not treat water at household level. However, in irrigated and mixed farming approximately 50 percent treat their water through boiling and or use water guard. Water is normally stored in tins, plastic tanks or jerricans. Hand washing practices is at approximately 10-20 percent within pastoral and agro-pastoral whereas in irrigated zones and mixed farming livelihood zones is at about 40-50 percent. Markets and Trade Market operations The main markets are Kabarnet, Eldama Ravine, Tenges, Barwessa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Iloti, Amaya and Kapchorua. Food commodities sold are maize, beans, Irish potatoes, sorghum and finger millet while major livestock traded included: goats, sheep and cattle. Market operations were normal in all livelihoods. However, there was quarantine in Kapcholua in Koibatek in September 2015 of which ring vaccination for 20,000 cattle and situation was contained. Maize prices Maize price was retailing at Ksh 41per kilogramme across the livelihood zones; this was 7.8 percent above the LTA of Ksh 38 (Figure 3). There was gradual decline of maize from July to December 2015. This could be attributed to availability of maize from the long rains harvests. Stable maize prices were observed both in the mixed farming agro-pastoral livelihood zones at an average of Ksh 44 per kilogramme while pastoral livelihood zone recorded Ksh 50 per kilogramme, irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 42 and Mixed Farming. Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 4: Goat prices trends for Baringo Price (Ksh.) Goat price Goat price was Ksh 2,780 compared to LTA of Ksh 2,395 (Figure 4). The current price increased by 16 percent compared to the LTA and decreased by two percent in comparison to the month of August 2015 price. Higher goat price was observed in the irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 3,000 compared to Ksh 2,335 in the pastoral livelihood zone and Ksh 2,800 in agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone. High price was attributed to forces of supply and demand as well the ongoing rites of passage. Terms of trade Households currently purchase 68 kilogrammes of maize from a sale of one goat (Figure 5). The current terms of trade (TOT) were favourable to pastoralists and increased by 6 percent compared kilogrammes and also increased by eight percent compared to August 2015 price. This is attributed to market forces of supply and demand. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 55, irrigated livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 86 while agro-pastoral and mixed farming recorded a TOT of 65. Health and Nutrition Morbidity and mortality patterns The five predominant diseases reported for both children under-five and general population were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infections. Generally, the morbidity for children under-five was high in 2015 than in 2014 (Figure 6) .URTI, malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infection recorded an increase of 15 percent, 20 percent, 33 percent, 16 percent and one percent between January-December 2015 respectively compared to 2014. 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 Diarrhoea Eye Infection Figure 7: Morbidity Trend for general Population 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 Diarrhoea Pneumonia Figure 6: Morbidity Trend for under five URTI, malaria and diarrhoea cases increased by six percent, 30 percent and 29 percent respectively between January-December comparison with 2014 the same period whereas pneumonia and eye infection cases slightly reduced by percent percent respectively in 2015 as compared to 2014 (Figure 7). The distance to the health facilities on average in the pastoral areas is 2050 kilometres depending on the location. This is an improvement kilometres reported in 2014. In the mixed farming irrigated livelihood zones, the average distances remained the same in 2015 as in 2014. The decrease morbidity general population is attributed to the efforts put in place by both the county government and partners at the community and health facility level to improve health and nutrition services in the county. Trends of epidemic prone diseases There was a significant reduction of malaria, typhoid and other intestinal worms cases between July and December 2015 compared to 2014 same period by 60 percent, 14, percent and 50 percent respectively while dysentery and diarrhoea recorded an increase of reported cases of 10 percent and 11 percent respectively. There was a significant reduction of malaria and typhoid by 59 percent and 13.6 percent respectively for July to December 2015 compared to same period in 2014. This is attributed to the change of diagnosis from clinical to only rapid testing for malaria as a criterion of treatment occasioned by the availability of the rapid testing kits, the reduction in other diseases is attributed to community led total sanitation coupled with awareness and sensitization. This was largely seen in parts of both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones. Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation The coverage of fully immunized children under five was 58.25 percent for the period July to December 2015, compared to 55.1 percent in the same period in 2014. This is below the national target of 80 percent. The percentage of children immunized against Oral Polio Vaccine 1 (OPV 1), OPV 3 and Measles was 99.1 percent, 98.8 percent and 95.3 percent respectively between July and December 2014 while coverage decreased slightly to 97 percent, 98 percent, and 92 percent respectively between July and December 2015. Vitamin A supplementation coverage for at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 8: Percentage of children at risk of malnutrition children aged 6 and 12 months between July and December 2015 improved by 32 percent from 46.87 percent in 2014 to 62.2 percent the in 2015. Likewise, Vitamin A supplementation for children between 12 and 59 months increased by 62 percent between July to December 2015 from 14 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2015. The latrine coverage in the county was poor but there was an increase from 53.7 percent in 2014 to 59.2 percent in 2015. This could be due to reactivation of community health units and effort by public health unit to increase the coverage as a recommendation from LRA. Latrine coverage is approximately 79 percent for mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, 16 20 percent for pastoral (lowest coverage) and 49 percent for agro-pastoral. The low coverage is a likely a contributor to the current levels of morbidity trend among children below five years of age. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity Kenya Demographic Health Survey (KNBS, 2014) indicated GAM rate 0f 6.9 percent. SMART survey (2015) reported a GAM rate of 18.8 percent in pastoral livelihood zone, reduction from 21.1 percent observed in 2014. The county GAM was poor based on KDHS results while the East Pokot GAM was critical based on survey results according to World Health Organization (WHO) ranking. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016 indicative of improvement (Figure 9).The levels of GAM noted in 2015 are associated mainly with poor child care practices across the livelihood zones but more pronounced in pastoral livelihood zone. The meal frequency for children aged between 6 to 23 months in a day was 2 3 meals as compared to the required 3 4 meals per day. Meal frequency was normal at this particular period of the year. Food Consumption Score (FCS) for households was poor, borderline and adequate at eight percent, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The situation is above normal at this time of the year. The main meals consumed were maize, potatoes, milk and beans. Education The county has 662 Primary schools, 955 early childhood education centres (ECDE) and 152 Secondary schools in 2015 third term. Enrolment TABLE 5 Enrolment figures PRIMARY SECONDARY 49,239 139,362 35,500 154,954 36,096 Compared with the same period in 2014, there was a notable increase in enrolment of 12 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent in ECDE, primary and secondary respectively across all the livelihood zones by the end of the third term 2015 (Table 5). Boys and girls primary enrolment increased across all the livelihood zones by 3.1 percent and five percent respectively in February 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, while at ECDE the increases were 3 percent and 4.2 percent respectively for the same period. However, enrolment in the pastoral livelihood zone reduced by 4.5 percent for primary and 13.5 percent for ECDE for the same period, attributed to early marriages for most girls and initiation of boys from November-December 2015 (continuing). The school meals programme, the employment of an additional 1,833 ECDE teachers by the county government and the opening of more ECDE centres also promoted the increase in enrolment Drop out The dropout rate at ECDE was at 3.5 percent in 2015 attributed to insecurity in the pastoral livelihood zone especially in the second term, whereas primary school dropout rate was at 6.5 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, attributed to insecurity and ongoing rite of passage in the pastoral livelihood zone. Attendance Rate Table 6. Rate of attendance as a percent of the enrolment Indicator Term I-2015 Term II-2015 Term III -2015 School attendance (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) Primary 93.5 91.8 94.08 94.23 92.13 95.3 94.8 94.8 The rate of attendance as a percentage of the enrolment remained stable for both boys and girls in primary and ECDE in 2015 from term one to term three across the County (Table6) School Meals Programme The county is implementing two types of school meals programme; Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) and Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP). By third term 2015, RSMP and was supporting 112 schools while HGSMP was supporting 218 primary schools. About 30,099 pupils are currently benefits from RSMP up from 26,560 pupils in 2014 a 13 percent increase whereas HGSMP supports about 73,944 pupils up from 64,472 pupils a 15 percent increase. Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI were five, 22 and 73 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2014 compared with eight, 23 and 69 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2015. Most common consumption related households coping strategies included; reducing the number of meals eaten per day, reducing the portion sizes of meals, relying on less preferred or less expensive food and borrowing food or relying on help from a friend or relative. On-going Interventions by Sector Non- food interventions (food security related) County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame AGRICULTURE Baringo Central Horticulture development project( Fruit trees development 2,500 County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security drip kit project County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security Baringo North Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi Irrigation scheme Barwesa National Government Improved supply availability of Affruitation project All wards County Government Improved access to food Continu Mogotio Horticulture development project( Fruit trees development 2,500 County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security Pokot Irrigated agriculture Tangulbei- Chemoigut Farmers WV,NDMA Enhanced household food security and peace Tenders floated 1 Year Bulking irish potato certified seeds (6Acres) Lembus County government and community Improved food security 1 Year Drip kits support to farmers( 10 kits) All wards County government and community Improved food security 1 Year Baringo South Subsidized ploughing All wards County government and community Improved production 1 Year LIVESTOCK SECTOR Forage establishment BarwesaSa imosoi Increase forage yield October Capacity Building Pastoral zones MOLDASDSP Better Quality July - County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame livestock er2015 Baringo north, Baringo South Provision of Beehives Mochongoi MOALF July - er2015 SaimoSoi Livestock upgrading All lowland wards Commercial off-take All Wards 800HH County Govt, Income to Farmers er, 2015 Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty Disease ations) RVF RVF prone areas in Marigat, SaimoSoi and East Pokot 250,000 Cattle SH, County livestock Health Disease ations) FMD Kapcholoi Cattle County Govt livestock Health Tick control- Construction County- Communiti County Govt -Tick-free livestock -Disease-free livestock HEALTH SECTOR County Vitamin A counties County department of health, supported by WVK and UNICEF Improved immunity in underfives resilience to illness. County counties County department of health Contributes to preventing mortality Jan County Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) counties County department of health Contributes to preventing mortality 3.696 Jan County Interventions counties County department of health Builds the resilience of caregivers Jan County Iron Folate on among Pregnant Women and Growth monitoring counties County department of health Supplements where there is inadequate diet diversity Jan - County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame Pokot Capacity building on IMAM, MIYCN, County department of health, WVK and UNCEF Capacity of health workers to implement nutrition services Jan Strengthening of CHU community health units on nutrition 159,404 County department of health, WVK and UNCEF Capacity of community units to implement nutrition services Jan WATER SECTOR Baringo central, Baringo North, South Baringo BH drilling and equipping 100No. All Wards Improved water accessibility 1,800 2 Years Whole county Rehabilitation and expansion of existing ws All Wards 20,000 Baringo County tional Government Improved sustainable water supply services County Roof Water Harvesting to Institutions All Wards Institutions BCGRVWSB Improved water availability going County Expansion of irrigation schemes Marigat, North Baringo, Tiaty , Mogotio 5,000 Baringo County tional Government Improved food security at HH level EDUCATION SECTOR Pokot Construction of classroom Tangulbei Churo ECDPrima ry pupils Ation Aid Kenya Improved performance enrolment Months 201516 Advocacy on girl child-anti FGM forums Tangulbei Churo Primary School girls Ation Aid Kenya Improve retention and transition Scholarship for Girls Tangulbei Churo Ation Aid Kenya Kirerea Foundation Enhanced Transition from Primary to Secondary 0.405 Scaling up of Nutrition status Tangulbei Churo UNICEF through WVI Improve nutrition status of school going children Sub-County Ranking Sub County food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security rank (1-10) Main food security threat (if any) Mogotio Inadequate pastures for livestock Poor crop performance Long trekking distances to water points Low water recharge level High incidences of livestock diseases East Pokot Poor crop performance Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points High incidences of livestock diseases Baringo North Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points Baringo South Inadequate pastures for livestock Baringo Central Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Prognosis Assumptions The onset of the long rains in March, April and May will be timely and the temporal and spatial distribution will be favourable. The market prices for cereals and livestock products will remain stable for the next three months. The pasture and browse are expected to deteriorate in the next one month to early March especially in both the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones owing to the short dry spell. However from mid-March the situation is expected to improve. The peace stability will prevail. Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months Food Security outcomes from March to May Even though the food security situation is stressed for pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the number of households that will employ more frequent insurance coping strategies is expected to increase. Livestock sector production is likely to improve as pasture condition is expected to have regenerated and walking distances to watering point is expected to reduce. Cases of absenteeism and drop-outs are expected to reduce especially in ECDE across all the livelihood zones with the expected school feeding programme supported by the county government. Food Security Outcomes for June to August With the assumption that the 2016 long rain onset will be timely coupled with even spatial and fair temporal distribution, the above mentioned factors will be reversed. Terms of trade especially for pastoralists are expected to be favourable and food commodities prices are expected to decline. Milk production, food stocks, number of meals taken per day and dietary diversity per households across livelihood zones is expected to increase. The nutrition status of children under-five years is expected to remain stable following the availability of milk. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusion Pastoral livelihood is largely in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2) while agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase 1) expect Bartabwa area in the agro-pastoral livelihood which is classified in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The food security situation is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones with more household employing stressed coping strategies in pockets of pastoral and agro-pastoral areas including Emining, Mondi, Loyamorok and Tangulbei areas. The Key factors to monitor include pasture and browse condition, water availability and access, livestock body condition and livestock and food prices. Since the county is long rains dependent, good performance of long rains is expected generally to improve the food security situation in 2016. Summary of Recommendations Enhanced rangeland management (disease control, pasture establishment and water improvement. Livestock upgrading Roof water harvesting of institutions. Constructions of dams for irrigation water and domestic use. Provision of water treatment chemicals and construction of toilet facilities. Enhanced capacity building in water management and sanitation. Reactivation and strengthening of community health units. Sensitization and training of health workers on selected programmes( IMAM, IYCN and IMCI) Increasing hectarage under irrigated agriculture in the low land areas. Up-scaling and availing planting materials for drought tolerant crops. ANNEXES 6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) County Population in the Sub County Pop in need ( percent range min max Proposed mode of intervention Remarks Mogotio 48,129 10-15 Emining East Pokot 133,189 Mondi, Loyamorok, Tangulbei Baringo North 93,789 Saimosoi, Barwesa Baringo South 84,256 Mukutani, Mochogoi Baringo Central 78,095 118,103 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame HEALTH County Strengthen linkages with County 805 ECDs (53,505) department of health, WVK and UNICEF Personnel, logistics, personnel 1 year Funds (KSh.5.6 million) Sentinel sites Data quality assurance sentinel sites 12 sites NDMA, Department of health, WVK and UNICEF personnel Three months County Scale up of specifically IMAM to new health facilities County wide - health facilities 120 health facilities Department of health, WVK and UNICEF 2.5 million Personnel, RUTF, Drugs 1 year County Capacity building of newuntrained health workers on IMAM, IYCN County wide 120 health workers Department of health, WVK and UNICEF 1.5 million Personnel, trainers 1 year LIVESTOCK SECTOR Baringo North, Borehole construction for livestock water SaimoSoi 500HH National Government. Pasture seeds Land and labour Regional Pastoralist Resilience Project Facilitatio (KSh 4M) counties FMD Blanket Vaccination and purchase of vaccines locations 500,000 Cattle,120,00 Shoats20,000 birds GOK, KRDP, Other SHs 0.9M, Others - 4.25M Personnel,Veh icles ,Funds- counties Capacity Building on n(Beekeeping All Wards 600HH GOK,ASDSP KRDPEU, Action Aid, ACTED, Child Fund, WV(K) Training- 1M ,Hives Equipment s-24M July- Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Mogotio Pasture Establishment - Seeds, Training Lowland wards 2,500HH County Govt., National- MOALF Personnel County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame BaringoN orth, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Mogotio Livestock Upgrading All Wards Sahiwals-12 County Govt Galla-30 Baringo LH Support Programme Dorper-20 AGRICULTURE SECTOR Baringo central Water harvesting for production 20,000 County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, Department Agriculture -Human resource, 1 year (Introduction of Upland rice for improved food security) Identified sites in the Sub County promotion Unit, County Government, Relevant stakeholders, Department Agriculture 2 Million Human Resource, Suitable land and climate 1 year Provision of subsidized assorted farm inputs Sub county wide Funds Pokot Provision of subsidized assorted farm inputs Sub county wide Funds Expansion of irrigation kolowa County Govt,NIB,K 2years Baringo North Environmenta l conservation Bartabwa and Barwesa wards County and other Stake holders Technical staff Provision of drought tolerant planting materials Bartabwa, Saimosoi and Barwesa wards County Dept. Agriculture Seed, transport follow up, Training materials 3 Year Mogotio Drought tolerant planting materials Kisanana, Sirwa,Mogotio, Emining County Dept. Agriculture 3Year County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame Metal silos provision Kisanana, emining, Mogotio groups County dept. of agriculture 15 silos 1 Year Provision of hermatic bags for post- harvest management SaosKibias, Perkerra, Kiplombe,Kabim o,Kabiyet and Ravine 300 HHs MoALF Improved security 60,000 Support 200 hhs to provide 4 kgs drought tolerant crop seed and 10 kgs fertilizer each. SaosKibias, Perkerra, Kiplombe, Kabimoi ,Kabiyet and Ravine 200 HHs MoALF Improved security 260,000 Establishment of 2 water pans for irrigation Esageri and saos MoALF Improved security 6,000,000 Capacity Built farmers on GAP 10,000 MoALF Improved security 2,000,000 WATER SECTOR Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo south, Baringo Central, Rehabilitatio n and expansion of existing water supplies Across all Livelihoo d zones 2000HHs Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, National RVWSB Existing structures and water resource months Whole County Water Pans De silting Wards livelihood zones 4000HH (12 No. water pans) Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Existing structures 2 3 Months Whole County Capacity development on water management sanitation livelihood zones All Wards 6000HH Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Organized groups, relevant Existing structures months County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame County PVC tanks 10,000 Lts for Roof Water Harvesting Institutions Wards livelihood zones Institutions Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Existing Structures months County Multi- purpose construction Mixed and Irrigated farming zones 10,000HH (6No. dams) Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Reliable water sources, 1 year EDUCATION SECTOR East Pokot Inclusion of Upcoming Primary schools to Additional Schools Children WFPCounty Government Increase ce and retention Baringo North HGSMPRS Barwesa, Bartabwa, Salmosoi WFPCounty Increase ce and retention Mogotio HGSMP Sirwa, Kingmoro Kisanana, Emining WFPCounty Increase ce and retention Increase of Mosquito Bartabwa School Kipcherer County Government Prevent cases 50,000 Special Latrine Construction Primary School County Government Improve students welfare and health status 50,000",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2017.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2017 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group February 2018 1 Fredrick Aloo (Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries) and 2Lydiah Wachuka (Ministry of Health) Table of contents 1.1 County background ........................................................................ Error Bookmark not defined. 3.1.1. Crop production .................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Livestock production.............................................................................................................. 8 3.2.1 Markets ................................................................................................................................ 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ..................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ............................................................................. 14 3.2.5 Food consumption ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2.6 Coping strategy .................................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ......................................................................................... 16 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage ................................................... 16 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices ................................................................................. 17 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 18 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................. 23 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................................ 23 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .............................................................................................................. 24 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 24 5.3.1 Food interventions................................................................................................................ 28 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 28 Baringo County is classified as Stressed (IPC) Phase two. The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal (IPC) Phase one, while the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone have remained in the Stressed (IPC) Phase 2. This situation is attributed to the good performance of the short rains which was characterized by timely onset, above normal rains but its cessation was untimely. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 52 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.43. The average goat prices have reduced to Ksh. 2,461 compared to the five-year average of Ksh. 2,928. Access to food is hampered by increasing maize prices and declining livestock prices. Terms of trade (ToT) are currently below normal and households are purchasing 48 Kg of maize from the sale of a goat compared to long term average (LTA) of 50Kg. Low livestock prices have contributed to low purchasing power for food commodities whose prices are high The pasture and browse condition is fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleting at a first rate in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation has been further aggravated by the infestation of fall army warm in farms which resulted in significant reduction of maize output in mixed farming, irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones by about 60 percent. Food stocks at household level have considerably declined especially in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones where 90 percent of the households depend on the markets. Conflicts have resulted in disruption and even closure of markets. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further in view of the prevailing conditions of deteriorating forage and declining amounts in water sources. Return distances between the water sources and grazing areas is 15 kilometres which is longer than the normal distance of 10 kilometres in pastoral livelihood zone, while households are currently walking a distance of about 8 kilometres compared to 4 kilometres normally thereby limiting access to domestic water sources. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is generally above the normal threshold for the last five years across the livelihoods. From the month of October 2017, the trend has been worsening and in January 2018 it stood at 18.5 percent. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level and minimal stocks within households. The trend is expected to worsen further until the onset of the long rains. There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively. This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018 as compared to 17 and 52 percent respectively in December 2017. The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of using less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 with a CSI of 20. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers (Km) with an estimated population of 555,561 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2009 census report). The County has 4 lakes (Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria and Lake Kamnarok and Lake 94) covering an approximate 165 Km. The County has six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo South. The County is divided into four livelihood zones (LZ) namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach The main objective was to analyze the impact of 2017 short rains season (October, November and December) on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 5th to 9th January 2017 using a multi-sectoral approach. All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Field observations were also undertaken during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the short rains season was in the second dekad of October which was timely. Most parts across county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, mixed farming received above- normal rainfall of between 125-200 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, some parts of pastoral all species around Nginyang in Tiaty received 50-70 percent of normal. Spatial distribution was even while temporal distribution was fair. Cessation was in the second dekad of December which is earlier. Normally rains end in the third dekad of December. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and have significantly led to reduction by about 60 percent of the normal production. The impact of fall army worm has resulted to low stock levels in households at 48 percent of the Long Term Average. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in JulyAugust. Livestock prices are below-average amid high food commodity prices. Household purchasing power has been eroded Most households about 90 percent are currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. Foot and Mouth (FMD) disease outbreak was reported in Rongai sub-county in neighbouring Nakuru County, there were suspected cases in Tirioko. Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) reported in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones of Koloa in Tiaty,Barwesa and Saimosoi in Baringo North,Salawa in Baringo Central. Cases of heart water were reported in Amaya and Churo. Figure 1: Rainfall performance in Baringo County 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability The food availability in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production, net food imports and livestock production. The 2017 short rains harvests were affected by offseason rains which impacted on the area planted as farmers had already planted, therefore the acreage for the short rains reduced. The fall army worm infestation reduced the production further. Also early cessation of the short rains and high temperatures affected crop and livestock production thus exposing households to market dependency. Conflicts such as cattle rustling resulted in market disruptions. Current food stocks available in the mixed livelihood zones are insufficient to sustain the households for the next three months and will have to rely on markets. While pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones will rely on interventions. 3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The short rains (October, November, and December) supplements the harvest from the Long rains season which is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under cultivation for maize and beans reduced by 81 percent and 66.5 percent below the Long-Term average respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 93.5 percent and 62 percent below the Long-Term average respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to the fact that most farms had crops established from the off-season rains (July-August-September. Incidences of Fall Army Worms (FAW) which was experienced across the county during the long rains of 2017 also contributed to the low establishment of maize crop under the short rains as farmers were advised not to plant maize so as to break the FAW cycle. However, in mixed farming livelihood zone of Mochongoi ward the area under Irish potatoes increased by 12 percent of the Long-Term Average, this is attributed to the good price that prevailed in the previous season. Table 1: Rain-fed (3 major crops) planted during 2017 Short rains season Long Term Average planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2017 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during Short rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 2. Beans 3. Finger millet 10 4.Irish Potatoes Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, tomatoes, water melons and green grams increased by 50, 10 , 47.6 and 125 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the increase was that most of the rivers and other water bodies (which form part the source for irrigation) had recharged during the long rains 2017 (April, May, June), Off-season rains (July-August) coupled by the short rains (October, November and December). The above reason also explains the consistency in production as soil moisture was adequate for production of the short season crops under irrigation (which are mainly vegetables and pulses). The area under green grams tremendously increased because farmers were contracted by Kenya Seed Company to produce green gram seed. The increase in acreage resulted in the increase in production of Tomatoes, water melons and green grams by 18.7, 41.4 and 125 percent of their normal production respectively (Table 2). However maize production reduced by 10.4 percent of the normal due to infestation of the Fall Army Worm. The area under irrigation for beans reduced by 77 percent of the long term average. Table 2: Irrigated (Major crops) planted during Short rains season Long Term Average planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2017 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons 119.6 2156.8 Kales 737.5 Green grams Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks held by households were below-average (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 48 percent of their LTA, while millet and sorghum stocks reduced by 6 and 85 percent below their LTAs respectively. Table 3 Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers Total Maize 309,429 82,011 14,297 13,270 419407 593,945 102,673 18,314 39,000 753632 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Millet Sorghum Maize stocks currently held by households in mixed farming livelihood zone are about 77 percent of the total. Households in the Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed zones do not have any stocks and are depending on traderslocal markets for purchase which mainly sourced from outside the County. Maize stocks held by traders and millers are 80 and 78 percent of the LTA for Maize while Millet stocks held by traders was 16 percent more than LTA and this was attributed to more household buying from markets for milling purposes and complementing with Maize flour, sorghum stocks held by traders were 28 percent of the LTA. 3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species kept in the county include; cattle, camels, goats, sheep, honeybees and poultry. The short rains do contribute significantly to regeneration of pasture and fodder in the county hence the importance for its utilization in rejuvenating strategic feed reserves and milk production at household in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Table 4 below shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution to Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species Forage condition The forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones. The pasture condition was fair in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. In agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, the condition was fair to poor and poor respectively. The impact of the off- season and short rains, led to good regeneration of pasture in fenced areas and fair regeneration in open areas. The pastures are expected to last till the end of March. The browse condition was good to fair in both mixed and irrigated cropping zones, fair in agro- pastoral zones and fair to poor in pastoral livelihood zones. It is expected to last up-to mid- march. Factors limiting access to forage include scarce forage, limited livestock water and resource based conflict along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty, Baringo south and Tiaty, Baringo and Keiyo Marakwet, and Baringo and both Laikipia and Samburu Table 5: Pasture and Browse condition od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Mixed farming Good to One and months Good to od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Irrigated croppin Good to One and months Good to pastoral 1 month Good to Pastoral 1 month Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The improvement in livestock body condition is attributed to the cumulative effect of the off- season rains coupled with above normal short rains witnessed. Similarly, the rains slightly reduced trekking distance but the regenerated pastures are rapidly being utilized. Pastures enclosures are in good condition and therefore able to sustain the body condition in those areas as the short dry spell continues. Below is the livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. Table 6: Livestock body condition od Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Fair to Good to Good to Birth rate The birth rates were normal at three percent due to the conducive conditions created by the impact of the off-season and short rains. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 7). The Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were due to poor performance of the past previous accumulated rainfall seasons as the livestock body conditions and fertility level deteriorated. Table 7: Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Mixed faming Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Agro-pastoral pastoral Pastoral Pastoral The average translated to 2.2 in poor HH as compared to four in medium HH Milk production and consumption There was slight increase in milk production as compared to the similar season 2017. However, both milk production and consumption are below the LTA. About 30 percent of milk sold in the pastoral all species livelihood zones come from mixed farming livelihood zones. As compared to the previous season there was decrease in milk prices as shown in the table 8 below Table 8: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) Milk consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Mixed farming Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral pastoral Pastoral Pastoral Water for Livestock Introduction The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, Lakes and pans which are in Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Alabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. Lakes include Bogoria, Baringo,and Kamnarok. The water pans were recharged at 50 percent but are now drying up rapidly due to onset of dry period. The trekking distance are currently above normal ranges but are lower than the previous season Table 9. There was no change in watering frequency. Table 9: Water for livestock Liveli Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-3 1-1.5 Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-3 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-3 1-1.5 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-3 pastoral water pans, Streams, water pastoral water pans, Streams, water rivers Boreholes pans, Boreholes rivers Boreholes pans, Boreholes Pastoral Water- pans, Bore-holes pans, Bore-holes Pastoral pans, Bore-holes pans, Bore-holes Migration Livestock migrations was taking place within the county. Some of the migrations were normal in search of pastures while others near the borders were due to conflicts such as cattle rustling. The main livestock species that was migrating was cattle. The current migration trends are as shown in the table below. Table 10: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Pastoral all species and Agropastoral livelihood zone Baringo south -Nyimbei and Chebinyiny to Mochongoi -Marigat to Arabal Cattle in search of pastures and return of security Pastoral all species livelihood zones Baringo north -Sibilo and Yatya bartum -Barwessa towards Kerio River -Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone (Mogotio) -Kamar and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. -Sagasagik, Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Sub county. -Sinende, to Mochongoi in Baringo South Cattle in search of pastures Pastoral all species livelihood zone(Tiaty) -Silale- Paka hills-Akwicha tis-Nabukuti- Nadome -Chesirimion-Orus-chepkalacha- mukutani -Chemsik-Chepanta and Maron -Kolloa-Sukut- Cattle in search of pastures Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The diseases occurrence reported in the county are as indicated in the table 11 below. The diseases were in the normal ranges as there was no quarantine imposed. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Disease surveillance and vaccination were undertaken in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 11: Livestock diseases Disease Area Reported county Livestock Livestock deaths Contagious Caprine Pleuro pneumonia (CCPP) Kolowa, Ngoron, Silale, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret Tiaty Goats 35 goats Majimoto, Kamar, Kimose, Mogotio Disease Area Reported county Livestock Livestock deaths Sheep goat pox Sacho Soi location BCentral goats sheep goats 55 goats 21 sheep 25goats Kapropita Soi location BCentral Kimalel BSouth Saimo soi, Barwessa M North cattle Kamar, majimoto, Emining, Mogotio Chepnes, Torongo ERavine Silale, Ribkwo Wards Tiaty Kiptoim, Lembus Mogotio ,Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Emining Mogotio Lembus ward ERavine Rabies Heart water Mogotio, Kimose, Cheberen mogotio Cattle 90 goats Saimo soi, Barwessa BNorth Ewalel soi BSouth Heart water Sibilo BNorth goats cattle Poultry 90 goats 4,000 birds Red water Tirioko, Akoret Tiaty New Castle Disease Kabarnet and Kaptopita BCentral Livestock Mortalities Mortality rates for all the livestock species are normal at two percent across all the livelihood zones. 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets functionality particularly for households in all the livelihood zones. Currently about 90 percent of households in pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are largely dependent on markets as their main food source. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Kabel, Kipsarama, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi and Mogotio. The Agropastoral livelihood zones have markets in Emining and Kaptara, Markets in pastoral livelihood zones are in Kolloa, Loruk, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya and Kinyach. Marigat and Barwessa markets are in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. All markets are functional except for Kinyach market which has been closed due to insecurity. The main livestock available in the markets were cattle, sheep and goats. There was an influx of livestock in the main markets resulting to low livestock prices being recorded which downplay the farmers purchasing power. The main reason of influx of livestock in the markets was increased numbers for sale of livestock in order to raise secondary school fees for children. The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main agricultural commodities in the markets are Maize, beans, greengrams and horticultural crops. Most of the cereals are imported from Nakuru, Uasin gishu Trans nzoia there is also internal trade from mixed farming zones to pastoral and agropastoral zones Maize prices Maize prices were 20 percent higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) and 5 percent lower than price in January 2017. The high prices were occassioned by low supplies harvests. Prices highest in the pastoral-all species livelihooh zone agropastoral livelihood zones average of Ksh 60. Goat prices The average price of a goat increased steadily from october to December this attributed improved conditions and the festive season. However, the price decreased by 9 percent from Ksh. 2,709 in the month December 2017 to Ksh.2,461 in the month of January 2018. The prices were below the LTA by 16 percent (Figure 4) ; but above last year prices by 10 percent attributed to market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to improvement of pasture and browse. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,604 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 1,875. The prices may slightly drop as prevailing dry spell may have impact on the body condition 3.2.2 Terms of trade The Terms of trade have been on an increasing trend October December. However, they decreased to 48.1kg in January. The current ToT is slightly below the long-term average by 4 percent (Figure 5). The drop was due to decrease in the livestock prices in January. Figure 2: Maize price trends Figure 3: Goat price trends Figure 4: Terms of trade 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and crop production. Income from crop production has significantly reduced across all livelihood zones due to reduction in yield. Rainfall failure in the previous short and long rains in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones resulted in loss of livelihood assets mainly livestock. The households have now engaged in other income sources such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; water pans, springs and boreholes. The water sources were recharged at about 70 to 80 percent across all livelihoods as a result of the short rains and off some season rains during the lean season of July to Septembe. However, surface water sources are currently holding approximately 40 to 50 percent of their normal capacities as indicated in Table 12. Table 12: Status of water sources Distance to water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three major sources) No. of No. of Sources Projected Duration (Operation al Sources) Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral Holes Months months stable Kirim Nyimbei, Kapkun, Chebinyiny, Ngoron, Nasorot, Water 1 1 Months 70 - 80 Kirim, Kasiela, Endao Springs 2 - 3 Months Months 50 - 60 Agro - Pastoral Holes Months months Stable Kabirgei, Kemnyunguny Water 1 1 Months 70 - 80 Kaptombes Springs 1 1 months Mixed Farming Holes Months months Stable Seretunin, Kipkaech, Mochongoi Springs 2 2 Months 50 - 60 Rivers 2 2 Months 70 - 80 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 70 - 80 Shallow Wells 3months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Months Due to below normal recharge and reduced flow rate, current distance to other water sources have increased by six to eight kilometres from the normal four to five kilometres in the pastoral zone. In the agro pastoral livelihood, distances increased from three to four kilometres normally to six to seven and in the irrigated cropping zone, from the normal half to one and half kilometres to one to two kilometres. In the mixed farming zones, the distances increased from the normal of one to two and half kilometres to two to four Kilometres. The increase has been occasioned by drying up of some open water sources and breakdown of boreholes in all livelihood zones (Table 13). Water consumption and cost Current water consumption is 12-15 litres per person per day compared to 15-20 litres per person per day in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods, 15-20 litres per person per day from 20-25 litres per person per day in the mixed farming zones normally. The Irrigated livelihood zone is at normal (20-25 litres). Cost of water has remained within the normal of Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrican at the water kiosks and boreholes in all livelihood zones Households using billed water are stressed due to high water bills. Waiting time The current waiting time varies between five to ten minutes at the boreholes as compared to the normal of three to five minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, five to seven from two to four minutes in the mixed farming zone and within the normal range of one to three in the irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase in waiting time can be attributed to high demand at those water points (Table 13). Table 13: Access to domestic water Ward livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Pastoral 4 - 5 6 8 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Pastoral 3 - 4 6 7 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 1 2.2 3 5 3 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 25 Mixed Farming 1 2.5 2 4 3 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 20 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure Figure 5: Food consumption groups 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018. In comparison to the month of January 2017 there is a significant improvement since households with poor food consumption score was recorded at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which is an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of consuming less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 when the CSI was 20. The CSI for Pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2018 is 18.4 and 15.3 respectively and CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 2.8 but an improvement in the same period in 2017 which was at 23.8, 15.6 and 4.2 respectively. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns The major morbidities from July to Dec 2017 for children less than five years are URTI, malaria, and Diarrhoea. The morbidity for this cohort increased by 15.6 compared to the same period in Jan 2017, Figure 7. This could be attributed to the off season rains and staff strike that affected treatment access. There was no epidemic from July to December 2017. However, there was an upsurge of clinical Malaria cases in Tiaty although this is not reflected in the DHIS report due to poor reporting because of insecurity and Nurses strike. The average distance to the nearest Health facility ranges from 35KM in East Pokot, to 6 Km in Baringo North. However, this was mitigated by integrated outreaches and the catch up campaign which brought services nearer to the communities 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage The fully immunized child (FIC) coverage recorded a reduction of 16.6 percent down from 66.6 percent, compared to same period in 2017 (Figure 8). The 50 percent coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent). The 16.6 percent reduction in coverage for FIC could be attributed to the problems faced by the sector including the Nurses strike, some facilities especially dispensaries closed due to staff shortage. This is despite the implementation of outreach in hard to reach area and catch up campaign. 2016 U5 2016 GP 2017 U5 2017 GP TRENDS IN MORBIDITY FOR UNDER FIVES AND GENERAL POPULATION Diarrheao Malaria Figure 6: Morbidity trends Figure 8: Immunization coverage Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children 6-11 month reduced by 29.4 percent from 70.2 percent to 40.8 percent (Figure 9), attributed to staff strike. However, there is an increase in Vitamin A supplementation for Children 12-59 by 27 percent to 56.6 percent compared to same period in 2016. The coverage is below the national target (80 percent). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central,Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties respectively. Despite reduced immunization coverage the childhood morbidity remained normal as same period 2017 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices 3.3.3.1 Food consumption Patterns Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, maize meal, and porridge in the Pastoral livelihood zones, also 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas with cows milk as early as two weeks, which explains low EBF rates of 36 percent which is below national target of 80 percent. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months in these livelihoods. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 12-15 litres and 15-20 litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub-county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.3.2 Nutrition status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition was stable from October to December (13 percent); attributed accelerated intervention in October and November. However, it increased to 18 percent in January 2018 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 10). Reports CHANIS (Underweight) currently range from Figure 9: Vitamin A coverage trends in Baringo Figure 10: Children at risk of malnutrition 6.7 percent in July 2017 to 9.0 percent in Dec 2017 among children less than five years for the county. East Pokot, all pastoral livelihood zone reported the high levels of vulnerability compared other livelihood zones across all sectors thus SMART survey carried out in July 2017 indicated critical nutrition status with GAM levels of 25 percent (Figure 11). The proportion admitted in the SFP and OTP programmes remained above LTA with disruptions in documentations due to health worker strikes, insecurity and mass screening (Figure 12). Malnutrition Screening, OTP and ITP admissions trends. The December 2017 East Pokot sub-county Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) survey found estimated coverage of 45.9 percent and SFP coverage of 29.7 percent. below recommended SPHERE standards of 50 percent for rural areas. This was attributed to stock outs, long distances, migration and poor motivation of CHVs involved in screening and referrals. Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate till onset of long rains in marginal mixed livelihood of Marigat, Mogotio but likely to be stable or improve in East Pokot where blanket SFP and facility based SFP interventions are ongoing. Most households across all livelihoods have foods stocks likely to last one month attributed to low harvests and will be relying on markets for food access compared to same period in Jan 2017. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid and amoeba have been reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage Number of new admissions Month LTM (5-yr average) Figure 11: Malnutrition trends Figure 12: Trends in OTP admissions Figure 13: Latrine coverage TOILET COVERAGE PER LIVELIHOOD pastoral agro pastoral irrigated crop mixed farming is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households in the Pastoral zone use bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Prolonged storage is mainly practiced enabling sedimentation. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, Jan 2018 Maize stocks households (mixed farming) Livestock body condition Poor for cattle, Fair to good for the rest Good for all livestock species in Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Good to fair for cattle and sheep in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones For goats good in agropastoral but good to fair in pastoral all species livelihood zones Water consumption (litres per person per day) Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Pastoral-all species: 12-15 Agro-pastoral: 12-15 Mixed farming: 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping: 20 -25 Price of maize (Ksh. per kg) Average Ksh. 52kg (Pastoral Agro-p: 60, Mixed Irrigated: Ksh 30-35Kg Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) Terms of trade (number of kilograms purchased from the proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index Mean CSI 20 Mean CSI: 15.74 (Jan) Pastoral:18.4, Agro-pastoral: 15.3, Irrigated zone: 2.8 consumption score (percent) (Jan 2017) Poor 19 Borderline 32 Acceptable 49 Jan 2018 poor:18 Borderline:20 Acceptable:61 3.5 Education Access Generally there was an increase in ECD enrolment by 3.4 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2017. The ratio of boys to girls at ECD level is 1 to 1. Primary school enrolment declined by 1.6 percent in Term lll 2017 compared to Term l 2018. This is due the implementation of Teacher Performance Appraisal Development Performance contracting Teacher Management Information System. (TPADPCTMIS Implementation of Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE) had an effect on a higher rate transition from primary to secondary level. In Term lll 2017 enrolment in secondary schools for boys and girls increased by 8.3 and 14.2 percent respectively, compared Term 1 2018 Table 14. East Pokot had the lowest enrollment of secondary school students with a total of 1,356 boys and 830 girls in Term l 2018. However, there was an increase compared to Term lll 2017 with a proportion of 7.6 percent for both boys and girls. Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term III 2017 Term I 2018 (includes new students registered and drop- outs since Term III 2017) Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total 70,471 Primary Secondary Participation The ECDE attendance average in Term lll 2017 for boys and girls was 35,216 and 34,334 respectively. The average attendance for boys and girls in primary was 76,206 and 71,716 respectively. For secondary school the average attendance for boys was 19,932 and girls was 18,864. It there means that absenteeism was minimal at all levels of learning. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2017 Term I 2018 Indicator September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 January 2018 School attendance Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Primary Secondary Retention In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3 percent in Term II 2017 to 7 at the end of Term III 2017 while in primary the rate increased from 4 to 9 percent over the same period. For males, the rate decreased from 5, to 0.2 percent as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, migration of families to water points In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurityviolence, family labor responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. In secondary school the dropout rate decreased by 2.2 percent for boys. However, there was no drop out for girl. Instead there was an increase in enrolment in the proportion girls by 7.6 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2107. The reason of dropout for girls was due early marriages, pregnancies and lack of school fees, for boys it was caused by family labour, lack of school fees and boda boda business. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term II 2017 End of Term III 2017 Students dropped out from school Boys Girls Boys Girls Primary Secondary School meals program The County benefits from HGSMP funded by the MOE and WFP that benefits 337 primary schools from Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North, Marigat and Tiaty (still under RSMP) as shown in Table 18. Expanded school meals programme was distributed in Baringo North Sub County to caution the drought that affected schools that were not under HGSMP. It benefitted a total of 13,943 pupils of which 7,148 were boys and 6,795 were girls. Table 18: School meals programme Name of sub- county of schools feeding Other feeding programmes Boys Girls Boys Girls Mogotio 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 5,315 4,876 Tiaty 1,292 Marigat 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 5,315 4,876 Challenges facing school meals programme is shortage of water in schools hence lack of water for cooking the food, delays in food distribution and insecurity. The ECD are not covered in the national school meals program and allocated food by national government has to be shared by ECDs hence leading to faster depletion. Approximately 20 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Inter-sector links The county government is encouraging enrolment of pupils across all ethnic communities within the region and promoting cohesion and peace-building in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. The ministry of health carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. Pupils were also provided with water treatment tablets in schools. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with average to above average amounts and is the main season of the county. Livestock prices are likely to slightly deteriorate through to MarchApril owing to declining forage availability. The livestock body condition especially cattle is likely to deteriorate further Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for February to April The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average since there will be increase of volume of animals in the markets with a relatively poor body condition 4.3 Food security outcomes for May to July The onset of the long rains season is projected to be in MarchApril and will result in regeneration of forage and high recharge of water sources. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones the livestock production aspects are likely to improve in terms of body condition and milk production increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes. Nutrition status is likely to improve with most households consuming more than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to stabilize. Proportion of households Koibatek with poor food consumption is expected to reduce with households consuming more food groups. Coping strategy Index will improve with households applying fewer consumption based strategies with less frequency. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase in the pastoral, agro pastoral and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. The pans are drying at fast rate due to siltation and high temperatures. Urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that the pans dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need for provision of water in schools and dispensaries mainly in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Currently water trucking is being undertaken in schools in the pastoral livelihood zones in Tiaty. Support to provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Most affected parts is in pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty. Provision of farm inputs in Agro-Pastoral, irrigated and mixed farming in preparation for the long rains. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers in the County this season include, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 125- 200 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the mixed farming livelihood zones characterized by even temporal distribution and an early cessation. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture is on an increasing trend. Forage condition is deteriorating in the agro pastoral and all pastoral livelihoods zones livestock resulting in migration within the county hence reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than- normal livestock prices reducing pastoralists terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households vulnerability in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the off season rains just before the onset of the short rains. Except for the pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty which reported poor Food Consumption score. All the other sub counties had acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to increased dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years has been recorded in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. This could largely be attributed to the poor child care practices and reduced milk availability in the households. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county security rank (1- Main food security threat (if any) Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (2) East Pokot Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, Harsh climatical conditions, High malnutrition rate Mogotio Poor pasture condition, Human wild life conflict, livestock disease, High temperatures, fall army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, poor water quality Baringo North Fair -Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, High temperatures, fall army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources Baringo South Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict, fall army warm, increased water distances, poor water quality Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Deteriorating of pasture, fall army worm, increasing distances to water sources. Eldama Ravine Infestation of fall army worm, reducing water levels. 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions Intervention Objective Location Activity Target No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Agriculture Immediate Interventions Creation of productive assets by households Increased food production at household level, reduced poverty levels and conserved environment in ASAL areas Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Capacity building of staff on control 2.3 M 5,000 National Government and County Government of Baringo, Development partners Supply of inputs(Maize , Beans, green grams, fertilizer Chicks, Pasture Create resilience to communities affected drought insecurity Barwessa, Bartabwa Capacity building on types variety 100 M 5,000 National Government County Government of Baringo On farm- irrigation systems -support for newly established irrigation schemes(purchas e of seeds ,fertilizers and chemicals to support farmer groups in irrigation schemes) Increased productivity and increased security Mogotio, Lembus Perkerra Increase acreage under irrigation Promote appropriate water harvesting technologies Baringo County Government- Agriculture Fertility management Increased productivity and increased security Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Collect soil samples and conduct analysis 0.5 M Baringo County Government- Agriculture Nutrition Food Utilization Increased household food nutrition Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Capacity building LMIS and Maternal Infant Young Child Nutrition 3,000 Baringo County Government- Agriculture Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Livestock Sector Immediate Disease control(vaccinati against FMD, CCPP, LSD,SGP, Reduced incidences livestock diseases leading improved livestock body condition Mogotio, Baringo North Routine vaccination Participator disease Surveillance 15,521 cattle 58,077 shoats Dec-feb MOALF, Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes Increase chances livestock survival during drought period Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty Procurement purchase of feeds 20,000 Livest ock(T Dec,201 7-Feb, MOALF, Disease surveillance Ensure proper monitoring disease incidences proper control Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Routine disease monitoring 50,000 TLUs March BCG(MOAL Medium and Long Term ongoing interventions Provision pasture seeds BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Procurement appropriate pasture seeds Capacity building on pasture production management 2018- MOALF(BL RPLRP NDMA(EU) Partners Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Health Sector Immediate Vitamin A Supplementation Improved child immunity Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Undertake vaccination 0.38M MOH, WVK Supplementation Reduce severity of Diarrhoea Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Integrated management of childhood illnesses Health Services Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) Safe life And prevent under nutrition Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty promotion , Community initiatives WVKUNICE F and WPP Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women Reduced child morbidity and mortality Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Build capacity for health care MOH, WVK workers and Deworming Increase food intake and utilization Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Routine and School based deworming MOH, WVK East Pokot Sub County SMART Survey Targerting to increase coverage Ksh1,2 29,550 Pokot Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Water Sector Immediate Water trucking Reduced distances in accessing water. Institutions Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Targeting to increase coverage Institut going BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Borehole rehabilitation Increase in access to safe water Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Procurement of spare parts Routine maintenance 200HH going BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Capacity building on water management Increased knowledge on safe water. Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Trainings on water management 2 Sub countie going RCS, WV, UNCEF Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Medium and long term ongoing interventions Construction of new water projects Reduced distances in accessing water. counties Tendering procurement 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Rehabilitation, drilling and equipping of boreholes Increase in access to safe water counties Siting, Procurment, installation 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Increased knowledge on safe water. counties Conduct water resouse management Planting of trees 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-County Population Projected Population Pop in need ( range min max ) Proposed mode of intervention East Pokot (Tiaty) 133,189 15-20 Baringo North 93,789 10-15 Mogotio 48,129 10-15 Baringo South 84,256 10-15 Baringo Central 78,095 Koibatek 118,113 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Livestock counties Emergency Livestock off- Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. Govt.(KMC) Feb-April, counties Disease control(vaccin ations against FMD,LSD Blue Tongue) Mogotio, Marigat(Blue tongue) areas(FMD) Countywid National government and Development partners Feb-Mar, counties Provision pasture seeds BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South MOALF(BLRP) RPLRP NDMA(EU) Mar-June County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Mogotio Partners Agriculture Immediate Counties Inputs provision including capacity building post-harvest and safe use of chemicals Eldama Ravine MOALF, PPSD, BLRSP, Staff 2018-2019 Education Sector Immediate interventions Tiaty Feeding of children All wards 10,059 BCG,UNICEF, KRCS,WFP 10.6M 2018-2019 Marigat Supply of smp 446 schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi BCG,GOK, NGOS,Partners, 2018-2019 Provosion of safe guard water purifyers Mukutani,Ma rigat ,ilchamus wards Unicef 2018-2019 Feeding of ECD children All wards in Marigat sub- county BCG,PARTNERS,P ARENTS 2018-2019 Baringo Central Establishment of community Smp in 94 schools Tenges,Salaw a and Sacho wards 19,666 GOK,BCG,WVK, parents 2018-2019 centres to access meals All ECD Centres in the sub-county 5083 UNICEF,BOM,Pare 2018-2020 Improve of IGAILA in Kabarnet Deaf Blind schools Kabarnet BOM,BCG,GOK and Partners On going County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Health Sector All Sub counties Rapid Assessment Baringo County 94,000 MOHNDMAWV KKRCUNICEF 300,00 Feb 2018 All Sub counties Intensify screening and referrals 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub- counties 94,000 MOHWV and WFPKRCUNICEF 0.846M February All Sub counties Provision of Nutrition supplements 150 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVKKRC February All Sub counties Integrated outreach services 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 96,850 MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 1,873,250 267,60 FebruaryM All Sub counties SMART Survey County wide 654,000 MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 340,00 June 2018 All Sub counties Provision of water treatment chemicals County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 0.25M March 2018 All Sub counties Scale up County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF BBCMA March All Sub counties Scale up IMAM Surge County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF BBCMA April 2018 All Sub counties Initiate Infant and young child feeding in emergency County wide MOH KRC UNICEF 750,00 March East Pokot East Pokot WFPWVK MOH 123,130,00 March Water Immediate All Sub counties Fuel Subsidy Electricity subsidy Community 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame All Sub counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units Community 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Roof Water harvesting structures Institutions Communities 60 Inst. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision County wide 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Capacity building on WASH Water Management Catchment protection County wide 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months Medium and Long Term Interventions All Sub counties Drilling and Equipping of strategic BHs County wide ( 7 Boreholes 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs All Sub counties Construction Rehabilitation of potential water supplies County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, WFP 1 5 yrs All Sub counties Construction of 4 dams for domestic and irrigation water use County wide 5,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs All Sub counties De-silting and Construction of major water pans County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5Yrs All Sub counties Capacity building on County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, WFP 5MStaff 1 - 5Yrs",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group February, 2019 Esther Barasa (National Drought Management Authority) and Baringo County Steering Group INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 County Background .............................................................................................. 1 Methodology and Approach ................................................................................. 1 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ............. 1 Rainfall Performance ............................................................................................ 1 InsecurityConflict ................................................................................................ 2 Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................. 2 Availability ............................................................................................................ 2 Access .................................................................................................................... 7 Utilization ............................................................................................................ 11 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ............................................................ 13 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES ...................................................................................... 14 Education............................................................................................................. 14 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ............................................................................ 15 Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 15 Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 ................................................. 15 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS ............................................................. 16 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 16 6.2: Ongoing Interventions ........................................................................................... 17 6.3:Recommended Interventions .................................................................................. 21 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention ........................................................................ 21 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions ....................................................... 21 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG) in conjunction with partner organisations. The 2018 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 11th-22nd February 2019. The overall objective of this assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally. There was uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution. The caseation was earlier than normal; the poor performance of the rains led to decrease in the acreage for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. It also led to increase in trekking distances to water sources. Forage was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping, fair to poor in the agro- pastoral and poor in pastoral livelihood Zones. Livestock body condition was good to fair in the county. Milk production at household level was below the Long Term Mean across all livelihoods this was attributed to increasing distances in search of water and pasture. Milk consumption was stable in the county with exception of Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones which had low milk consumption due to low production and high prices. Livestock prices were above the long term average while food commodity prices are below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are favourable at 80 percent above the long term average. The current maize stocks are 18 percent above the long term average. Proportion of households in acceptable Food Consumption category was 80 percent. This was attributed to availability of food at household level and markets. Reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone were employing consumption based coping strategies more frequently compared to other livelihood zones. The proportion of children below five years who were at risk of malnutrition was within the normal range. The indicative food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase Figure 2: Rainfall performance 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. County covers approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projected Population). Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively as shown in Figure 1. 1.2. Methodology and Approach A technical multi-sectoral and multi-agency working group comprised of government technical experts from water, livestock, agriculture, Health and nutrition and education sectors in county, NDMA and partners was formed by the CSG to analyse the food security situation for evidence-based decision support. The team, led by KFSSG, reviewed existing secondary data (including sectoral reports, NDMA bulletins, Knowledge Attitudes Believes and Practices survey reports), to establish the current food security situation and determine the trends. The team then conducted transect drives across the livelihood zones to assess the field situation through visual inspection techniques, interviewed Key informants and conducted household interviews. The qualitative data explained the changes in household food security during the season. The technical team analysed the available evidence in a transparent and consensus-building manner, and presented a preliminary report which was discussed and adopted by the CSG during a special meeting held on 22nd February 2019. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance The onset of the 2018 October to December was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally.. However, progression of rains throughout the season was poor in all livelihood zones. Substantial rainfall amounts were only received during the second dekad of October and Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping first dekad of December. Spatial distribution was equally uneven. Cumulative seasonal totals were 90-140 percent of normal in the northern pastoral areas of Tiaty, Baringo South and pockets in Baringo North. The rest of the county received 51-90 percent of average rainfall. Rainfall cessation was late in the third of December compared to first dekad normally 2.2. InsecurityConflict Incidences of insecurity were reported in Arabal in Baringo South that resulted in loss of lives. The situation led to burning of a grazing zone in the area. There is a high tendency of collapse of markets along borders of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South as well as displacement of persons especially in Mukutani ward. Tensions have been reported along the borders of Saimo soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North thereby leading to limited access to forage in those areas. Other Shocks and Hazards Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. However, the Baringo County government is carrying out vaccinations campaigns currently. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed crop production is mainly done during the March to May long rains and contributes 85 percent to food. Crop production during the October to December sort rains contributes 15 percent to food. The main food crops grown in the County include maize, beans, millet, Irish potatoes, cow peas and sorghum. Other crops are grown are coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Crop production is mainly practised in the agro-pastoral, Irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihoods. Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in both the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. Maize crop contributes 63 and 21 percent to food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Maize is grown for commercial purposes in the irrigated zones contributing 26 percent to cash incomes. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under maize and bean crop production was 90 and 85 percent below the five- year average. Farmers were advised by the Ministry of Agriculture to observe a closed season during the short rains to break the Fall Armyworm lifecycle. In addition, the delayed cessation of the 2018 March to May long rains affected the harvesting of the long rains crop and land preparation for the short rains season. As a result, maize and bean production dropped by 93 and 86 percent of the long term average (LTA). The area under Irish potatoes was eight percent above the LTA especially in Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. However, production was 23 percent below the LTA due to the poor performance of the short rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during 2018 Short rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2018 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Tons Long Term Average (5 year) production during the short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons Maize 9,150 Beans 1,992 14,421 Irish Potatoes 1,308 1,212 13,080 16,932 Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize, watermelons and tomatoes. Irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 16 percent compared to the short term average (STA). The production of maize was below STA because most of the crop was affected by lack of adequate water especially during tussling. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and watermelons by 39 and 41 percent of the STA respectively. The high temperatures and high evaporation rates negatively affected the water quantities available for irrigation. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Area planted during 2018 Short rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2018 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by farmers and millers were 24 and 29 percent of the LTA while traders held stocks 22 percent below LTA. Maize stocks held by farmers include spill over stocks from the above average 2018 long rains harvests. In spite of the county having above average maize stocks, majority of the stocks are held by commercial farmers in Eldama Ravine. The rice stocks held by traders were below the LTA by 33 percent. Current millet stocks held by the farmers and Traders were above the LTA by 874 and 486 percent respectively. Generally the County had maize stocks above the long term average and this was attributed to favourable long rains, poor maize prices thus farmers did not sell their produce and minimal carry-over stocks from the 2018 long rains. The Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones have nil to minimum stocks and are depending on markets for their supplies. Traders are having below their long time average as most of them have maize stocks which are not moving as households have maize and they are not selling especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Farmers are mostly likely to dispose of their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline drastically in the next three months. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the other harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sell their produce within two months. Table 3: Commodity Stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Millet Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 736,130 593,945 1,463 24,780 2,544 Traders 80,344 102,373 1,640 2,465 3,108 Millers 26,432 20,444 3.1.3. Livestock Production Livestock production contributes 88 and 50 percent to cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. The main livestock species reared are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The county government has also been promoting rabbit farming. Livestock is usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, livestock are released to the fields and later return to the homesteads themselves in the afternoon. The short rains are important in pasture and browse regeneration after the long lean season of July to September. Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which is normal at this time. However, they were fair to poor in the agro- pastoral livelihood compared to good to fair normally. Pastures in the pastoral livelihood were poor compared to good to fair conditions normally. Pastures are expected to last for 1-2 months in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods compared to three months normally. Access to pastures in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones has been limited by insecurity especially in Chemoe, Natan and Arabal. Approximately 50 hectares of pasture were burnt during the recent skirmishes which was grazing zone for livestock from pastoral and agro pastoral Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Good to Irrigated cropping Good to pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Good to Insecuri tensions Good to Insecurit tensions Livestock Body Condition The livestock body conditions were stable in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones but were good to fair in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone. The body conditions were normal for this time of the year. Livestock body conditions in the pastoral livelihood have deteriorated to fair to poor conditions, compared to good conditions normally, due to declines in pastures and limited access due to insecurity. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Good Agro-pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Fair to Good to Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs The average tropical livestock unit is 3 for the poor income household and 4.9 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, the current TLUs are within the normal seasonal ranges. This is attributed to good conception during long and off- season rainfalls. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Birth Rates Birth rates were average in all livelihood zones following average conception rates during the above average March to May long rains. The deviations in birth rates across livelihoods were as a result of levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest birth rates being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk Production and Consumption Milk production was below the long-term average in all livelihood zones following a decline in pasture and water resources. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping zones, milk production declined to five litres per household per day compared to eight litres normally. Milk production decreased to one and two bottles in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods compared to two and four litres normally. Milk consumption has decreased mainly due to a reduction in production. Average consumption was one to two litres per household per day compared to 2 litres across in all livelihood zones. Reduced milk availability led to an increase in prices in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Prices in these areas ranged between Kshs. 75-90 per litre compared to Kshs 60 normally. Table 7: Milk Production and Consumption Water Availability and Access The critical water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, rivers, streams, springs and lakes (Bogoria, Baringo and Kamnarok) similar to normal times. The recharge of open water sources was 30-40 percent during the October to December short rains. Continued use and high evaporation rates due to above average diurnal temperatures significantly reduced quantities of water held in these sources. As a result, livestock trekking distances to watering points from grazing areas has increased by 85 percent in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Similarly, livestock watering frequency in these livelihood zones has decreased from once daily to four times a week. Table 8: Water availability and Access Livelihoo d zone Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes Streams Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes months 3 months Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore-holes months 2 months Livestock Migration Depletion of pastures in the wet season grazing areas have led to migration of livestock, mainly cattle, to dry season grazing areas. Cattle from Saimoi and Soi in Baringo North, and from Tiaty have migrated to Silale, Paka, Mallaso and Korossi hills. Migration at this time of the year is typical. Migration into neighbouring counties is likely to start, which may led to conflicts especially at Kasarani. Livelihood zone Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk Consumption (Litres)Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming 50-60 Irrigated cropping 50-60 Agro-pastoral Pastoral Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases reported in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia (CCPP), Peaste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). Prevalence of the diseases was within normal levels. Equally, disease related mortalities were within normal ranges. An outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Mochongoi ward was reported in Baringo South. Mass vaccinations and treatment by the veterinary department of the Baringo County government are ongoing currently. The department is also planning to carry out PPR and FMD vaccinations along the stock routes. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep. Food commodity markets in the county are Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodities traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock; this led to better livestock prices. 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price Currently a kilogram of maize was below the long term average and long rains by 22 and 14 percent respectively. the prices are 31 percent lower as compared to a similar period in 2018.The low prices were attributed to cheap prices of the commodity from the neighbouring counties. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 30 per kilogram. The low prices recorded irrigated livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the stocks at household levels and local traders. The trend of maize price has been stable since September 2018 as shown in figure 3. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones most farmers are purchasing from traders Figure 2: Trends in maize prices Figure 5:Trends in Terms of Trade Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Average (2014-2018) Figure 4: Trends in goat prices Goat Prices The price medium sized goat decreased by six percent in comparison to 2018 Long Rains. The current price is above the long term mean by 12 percent. The t prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,900 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 400. The trend is attributed to good market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to availability of browse. The prices are likely to decline if the dry period continues. 3.2.3. Terms of Trade The terms of trade wee above the long term mean by The terms of trade reduced from 79 during the month of December to 78 in January. The current TOT is above the long-term average by 80 percent. The favourable terms of trade were due to better livestock prices and low food prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest at 105.5 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 69.5. The terms are better as compared to a similar period last year. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones; contributing 88 and 50 percent of cash income respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percent respectively. Other sources of income are food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Incomes Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all species Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash Crop Production Fishing Casual Waged Labour Small Business 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for domestic use were Traditional River Wells, rivers, pans and dams, lakes, boreholes springs and Shallow wells across all livelihoods. The recharge of the majority of surface water sources was 30-50 percent in all livelihood zones due to the below average short rains. Currently open surface water sources are about 20 30 percent of normal capacity due to poor recharge during the short rains. Although majority of boreholes are functioning optimally, Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei, Yatya, Kipsaraman, Mogotio, salawa, maji moto and kisanana boreholes have broken down due to electromechanical break downs and poor management. The status of water levels in small dams and boreholes in mixed farming livelihood zones is stable while shallow wells, springs and rivers is poor in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 70 80 percent water pans in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones have dried up due to high temperatures. Generally the available surface water sources across all livelihood Zones is expected to last between one to one and half months except for Bore holes areas experiencing discharges as result of over- exploitation of water and is expected to last over 6 months Table 10: Main Sources of Water Ward Livelih Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operatio No. of Current Operati Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Months months stable Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei 2.Water 1 1.5 Months 15 - 25 Nginyang, Chesirimion, Silale , Loyamarok, Tuwo 3.Lake Baringo Stable stable Agro - Holes Months months stable Yatya, Kipsaraman Water 1 1.5 Months 15 - 25 3. Springs Mixed Farmin Holes Months months stable Mogotio, salawa, moto, kisanana 2. Springs 3.Rivers 1 1.5 Months 10 - 20 Irrigate Croppi 1. Rivers months months 10 - 20 2.Shallow 1 2 months Reducing Figure 3: Water Sources Figure 4. Food Consumption Score Distance to Water Sources The distances to water sources have increased by 125,100 55,67 and 40 percent in the Agro- pastoral, Pastoral, Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively as compared to normal distances. The average distances to domestic water sources were above normal at 7-9 kilometres in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 3-4 kilometres while the distances were above normal at an average of 1 3 kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase was a result of to the prevailing high temperatures and poor performance of the short rains. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20 which also depended on the distances covered. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 1520 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 12-15 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 5-10 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was on average 3 - 5minutes. However, there were extremes of waiting time at Logumgum, Naudo, Riongo, Loyeya, Kadogoi, Chepturu, chemoinoi, bekibon for over 2 hours. Table 1: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for domestic use (Kms) Cost of water (KES) Waiting time at water source (minutes) Average HH use (litrespersonday) Projecte duration of water (months Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 - 15 1-1 .5 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 5 3 - 5 5- 10 15 20 12- 15 1-1.5 Mixed Farming 0.5 2.5 2 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 - 20 2 - 3 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 - 25 3.2.5. Food Consumption There has been an improvement in consumption scores; majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last Wells months Discharge Figure 5. Morbidity Mortality Patterns year as shown in the figure above. According to the drought early warning bulletin, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 3 percent 17 percent and 80 percent of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.6. Coping Strategy The reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.8 followed by Pastoral at 14.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones employed coping strategies such as reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat, reduced the portion size of meals; reduced number of meals per day; friends or relatives; and relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, among under-fives were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Diarrhoea and malaria, as shown in the figure 8. The cases reported in January 2019 were less compared to a similar period the previous year. Upper Respiratory Tract Infections cases were highest at 3008 while malaria cases were least at 156. There has been a declining trend compared to 2017. But there was an increase in diarrhoeal cases among children under the age of five. Figure 8 : Coping strategy Index Figure 6. Morbidity Trends for the General Population Morbidity Trends for the General Population Highest numbers of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) were reported in Baringo North Sub County in January 2019 as compared to other sub counties. Malaria cases were highest in Baringo south. Generally there is an increase of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria cases and a decline in diarrhoeal cases in 2018 as compared to the same period in 2017 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization coverage increased from 53 to 78 between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for Fully Immunized Child was due to an increase in integrated outreaches and an increment of the cold-chain equipment. The implementation of outreaches and result based financing program, including support from Anya Uzi and other partners, also contributed to the improved immunisation coverage. Vitamin A supplementation of children between 12-59 months increased from 67.6 percent to 77.7 percent between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in Vitamin A coverage resulted from Malezi Bora activities in ECDE centres, community health units and baby friendly community initiatives (BFCI) 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity According to January 2019 sentinel data from NDMA, 13 percent of children under the age of five years were at risk of malnutrition (MUAC135mm). proportion of those at risk was 19 percent below the five-year average and five percent below 2018. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is four while adults have three meals a day which is normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is one meals a day as compared to four and three meals normally. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene According to county ministry of health and sanitation; the county current total latrine coverage July to December 2018 was about 44 percent East Pokot being lowest with 3.2. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate watering point for livestock and humans. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistent water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. During current transect drive, In pastoral set up, not all schools have latrines an example is Tuo with a population of 89 pupils.in most communities, 90 of household have no access to toilets facilities. Hand washing is done in 2 critical times (Before and after eating as opposed to the recommended 4 critical times) agro pastoral and mixed set up, 70 households have and use latrines and Hand washing at three critical time 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 11: Food Security Trends in Baringo County Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, February 2019 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition Good for all livestock species across all livelihood zones Mixed Farming Good Irrigated Cropping- Good Ago Pastoral Good to Fair Pastoral Fair to Poor Water consumption (litres per person per Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 20-25pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Irrigated: 25-30 Agro-pastoral: 12-15pd Pastoral: 12-55pd Mixed Farming: 15-20pd Irrigated: 20-25pd Price of maize (per Distance to grazing Mixed farming: 1 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Pastoral: 5-6 Mixed farming:1 -4 Irrigated: 1-4 Agro-pastoral: 4-13 Pastoral: 4-13 Enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Enrolment stable comparison to the previous term. Enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Coping strategy index Mean: 14.1 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Mean: 13.51 Agro-pastoral 18.8 Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, February 2019 Pastoral 14.2 Irrigated: 3.2 Pastoral 14.7 Irrigated: 2.6 consumption score Poor: 1.1 Borderline: 8.0 Acceptable: 90.8 Poor: 3 Borderline: 17 Acceptable:80 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education 4.1.1: Access (Enrolment) Early childhood development and education centres (ECDE) enrolment in Term 3 of 2018 was 27,139 boys, 25,498 girls totalling to 52,635. Term I (2019) the enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Within the county (Table 12). The increase was majorly attributed to county government employment of teachers and provision of infrastructure. Primary schools in the county enrolled 78512 boys and 72966 girls which was marginal increase as compared to third term 2018. On average, the increase was prompted by the free primary education policy and none repetition in all classes and availability of food in schools. It was noted in Tiaty that the ratio of enrolment of school going age children was at a low percentage compared to those at home. This was due to retrogressive cultural practices and mode of livelihood. Secondary schools in the county recorded an increase of 10.13 boys and 7.62 girls from last year term 111 enrolment. This enrolment increased in Term I (2019) compared to Term 11I (2018) due to100 government transition policy in all secondary schools, establishment of day secondary schools and KCPE entry marks lowered. Table12: Enrolment Term I11 2018 Term I 2019 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 27,139 25,498 52,637 27,410 25,546 52,956 Primary 77,328 72,201 149,529 78,512 72,966 151,479 Secondary 21,858 21,041 42,899 24,322 22,776 47,098 4.1.2: Participation (Attendance) There was stability in attendance of pupils in ECD centres due to availability of extended surplus of Regular Meals Program in Tiaty Sub County however this might be hindered by water shortage experienced in most schools. Instability in attendance was reported in Baringo south due to delayed disbursement of school meals program funds from Government of Kenya to primary schools, since the beginning of the term to date. ECDE centres are currently relaying on primary schools for meals because they have not yet received funds for meals from the county government of Baringo. Other factors include long walking distance and severe heat. Primary school attendance is stable but will be interfered by water shortage, leading closure of some schools in Tiaty. Secondary school attendance is stable with exemption of Tiaty due to few and far away schools as well as their retrogressive cultural practices. 4.1.3: Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from both primary and secondary school is normally associated with early pregnancies, household chores and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand in primary and secondary schools drop out and household do not value education. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres was due to long trekking distances and severe heat, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay of funds to primary schools). 4.1.4: School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 38,172 boys and 34,660 girls are under the Home- Grown School Meals Program (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) through the ministry of education. Some 40,340 boys and 38,306 girls are not on any school meals program as they are considered to be in food secure areas. The Ministry of Education had not disbursed the funds to schools by February as it has done in the previous years.AS a result, school attendance is likely to be low from March 2019. Parent Association have an organized meals program in all day secondary schools. Table 13: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP No. of Schools Girls Totals Koibatek Mogotio 10,602 10,508 21,110 B North 7,030 6,740 13,770 BCentral 3,210 3,140 6,350 Marigat 6,530 6,390 12,920 Tiaty 10,800 7,810 18,610 Total 38,172 34,660 72,832 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), there is a 40 percent likelihood of average to above average 2019 March to May long rains in the county with a normal onset. There is also a 40 percent likelihood of below average land surface temperatures. According to FEWSNET March to May, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically to be above normal through with the onset of the long rains. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, maize prices are expected to remain below the 2018 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected above normal long rains. 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 The food security situation in the county is expected to improve across all the livelihood zones with the anticipated above normal long rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk and food at household level No food security related mortalities are expected between March and May2019. Given the on-going interventions, the phase classification is likely to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with the exception of East Pokot (Tiaty) which will remain in IPC phase 2. 5.2: Food Security Outlook for June to August, 2019 Food security situation over the period June to August, is projected to remain stable. The rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the above norma long rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to improve. Minimal food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from borderline food consumption score to acceptable food consumption score due to availability of stocks and increased milk at household level. Households are not expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due increased milk production and consumption. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain at minimal (IPC Phase 1). 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1. Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The situation has worsened as compared to the long rains assessment in July where the county was classified at minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). 6.1.2: Summary of Findings The 2018 October to December short rains received were below normal and did not support pasture establishment. . Recharge of water sources especially open sources, water access, livestock productivity, Acreage under rain-fed reduced drastically by 90 percent and that under irrigated for seed maize increased by 16 percent. The available stocks are above the Long Term Average. The Goat prices are above the Long term mean by 12 percent. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 78 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat which is 80 percent above the long term average. Livestock body condition was good to fair and good in the Pastoral and agro pastoral and Mixed farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones respectively Trekking distances are above normal seasonal ranges in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones. . Markets operations are normal across all livelihood zones There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last year. 80 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, 17 percent having borderline and three percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index was 13.5 for the county a decrease as compared to similar period last year at 15.7. The proportion of under-five at risk of malnutrition was 13 percent; the proportion is below the long term average of 16 percent 6.1.3: Sub-County Ranking Table 2: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking (1Most food insecure, 4Least food insecure) Current main food security threats Tiaty Inadequate water Water quality challenges, High risk of malnutrition , Livestock diseases Resource conflicts, Insecurity ,Depleted forage, Baringo South Livestock diseases (FMD), Inadequate water Water quality challenges, insecurity due to in migrations, malnutrition (Kampi Turkana) Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Baringo North Inadequate water water quality challenges, livestock diseases, boundary Insecurity, depleted forage, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Mogotio Inadequate water Water quality challenges, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B(Maji Moto), Depleted forage Baringo Central Depleted forage, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. Eldama Ravine Depleted pasture, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. 6.2: Ongoing Interventions 6.2.1: Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 72832 pupils in 336 primary schools as follows 67, 71, 34,49 and 115 schools in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South Marigat and Tiaty sub counties respectively. 6.2.2: Non-Food Interventions Table 15: on-going Non-food Interventions Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame Agriculture Creation of productive assets by households- Especially Farm ponds Increased productio household level, reduced poverty levels and conserved environm ent in areas Wards 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National and County of Baringo, Developmen t partners Post-Harvest Practices(In puts supply construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine Reduced harvest losses especially on cereal Wards Millio 2018-2020 County Soil Fertility management Increased productivi ty and increased security Wards 0.6 M 2017-2019 Baringo County - Agriculture Nutrition and Food Utilization initiatives Increased household nutrition Wards 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo County - Agriculture Livestock IMMEDIATE Disease control Reduced incidence BCentral (Blue 5,700 Sheep Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame (Vaccination s and vector control) livestock diseases increased livestock prices and hence better term of trade tongue) BSouth (Blue tongue) Mogotio (CCPPP BNorth BSouth (SGP) BSouth (Vector Control suppress (for all targete areas) 2,000 5,912 Shoats 2,896 Cattle 30,000 Shoats Dec-Feb MOALF, Disease surveillance on RVF and other diseases monitor disease incidences for proper interventi All sub counties 50,000 100,000 TLUs Aug 2018- Feb, 2019 (MOALF) MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity building of Farmers(Nor mal Ext and Pastoral Field School Concept) Informed staff and farmers for best practices Baringo North Baringo south Baringo central Mogotio Throughou (MOALF) Partners Health and Nutrition Vitamin A improve ent status of the -hence All health facilities, selected 1,850,0 70,000 households Routine supported by UNICEF, Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame security. improve ent status of the -hence security All health facilities 2,000,0 32,000 households Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) improvead just the Nutrient status of affected 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 20,0000 1,500 households Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro complementa ry Foods) To lower morbidity mortalities hence improving security. All health facilities communit y units 1,000,0 20,000 households Routine County Department of Health Iron Folate ion among Pregnant Women improve ent status of the -hence security All health facilities 2,450,0 21,000 households Routine County Department of Health supported by UNICEF Intensify Nutrition surveillance. To detect malnutritio n early and intervene All health facilities 700,000 115 ,000 under-fives Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF 6.3: Recommended Interventions 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention Table 16: Population in need of Food Assistance SNo. Sub-County Population in need ( range min max) Proposed mode of intervention Tiaty 15-20 Baringo South 10-15 Baringo North 10-15 Mogotio Baringo central 1-5 Eldama Ravine 1-5 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions AGRICULTURE Count Interventi No. of beneficiari Proposed Implementer Require Resourc Available Resources Frame Inputs provision including capacity building on harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs 10 million) Staff Enhance asset creation households especially ponds and water pans for food production National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs Million) Staff Enhance irrigated Agriculture conducting analysis and crops suitability surveys in Irrigati scheme National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff irrigation schemes Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers to Schools and other institutions Learning Learning income generation and food Nutrition security Schools farms Ministry of Education, Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation, County development partners Finances Million) Staff, Availability of well fenced farms, Support of Extension through digifarm platform Projects monitoring , effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages Communicati companies, County Development partners Kshs 15 Million Staff WATER Provision of PVC tanks of10,000 Capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres Institutions County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, 10.8M Improved structures technical backstoppin Tiaty, North, Mechanize d desilting expansion of 24No. Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, 45,000 House holds County Government, Land technical expertise March- South, Critical water pans while dry ll Sub Design and Constructi on of Multi- purpose 55,000 County Government, Land technical expertise 201920 All Sub Water trucking and Water treatment Chemicals Institutions County Government, Human resource March All Sub Provide fueldiesel subsidy to households County Government, 14.4M Water infrastructu ral facilities March",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2020.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and Baringo County Steering Group February 2021 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG). The 2020 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 18th -29th January, 2021 with the overall goal of developing an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of 2020 short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the OND was normal and took place in the first dekad of October resulting in an average amount of 206 mm of rainfall against a normal of 180mm. Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was poor with the peak of the season being observed in the second dekad of October while cessation of the season was earlier than normal (first dekad of December). COVID-19 -19 restrictions were still in place which hampered smooth flow of goods and services, but the most affected were the health and education sectors. The County experienced insecurity challenges in parts of Tiaty Sub County which led to disruption of markets and other essential services and currently there is a major security operation going on to restore law and order. Livestock disease cases were minimal while lake waters are still high causing displacements and submerging of land. Area under maize acreage reduced for both rain fed and irrigated agriculture while yield from rain fed agriculture was less than 60 percent of Long-Term Average (LTA) due to early rainfall cessation. Household stocks were 20 percent above LTA due to carry over from long rains harvest while forage conditions were good in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral areas where its poor to fair. Livestock body condition was good for all the species across the livelihood zones other than in pastoral areas where body condition for cattle was fair. Milk production was below LTA across the County and consumption was near normal, the prices of milk were above the LTA. Tropical livestock units were below the LTA with livestock disease outbreak being minimal. Main water sources were at normal capacities, the access distances to water points remained normal other than in pastoral areas where trekking distances were above LTA. Waiting time at water points and water consumption were normal across the County. About 73 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption score while another 25 percent had borderline food consumption score, the coping strategy index (CSI) stands at 12.47 with Agro pastoral livelihood zone having the highest CSI at 16.6. Adult morbidity was on a declining trend compared to the last three years and the three most common diseases reported were malaria, diarrhoea and typhoid although the reported cases were lower than in 2019. COVID-19 - 19 impacted heavily on Vitamin A immunization coverage leading to low coverage compared to the year 2019. Latrine coverage and hand washing practices were reported to be lowest in pastoral areas at three and two percent respectively but highest in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 78 and 69 percent respectively. According to SMART survey of 2019, malnutrition was highest in Tiaty Sub County at 20.9 percent (GAM), 9.3 percent (SAM) and 40.1 percent for stunting while malnutrition by MUAC in December showed 95 percent of the children not being malnourished. There was a reduction in enrolment for term II compared to term I in both primary and secondary schools and this was due to COVID-19 related issues that took place while students were at home such as teen pregnancies, circumcision ceremonies among others. Nearly 5,700 girls did not report back to school of which 70 percent of the cases could be due to pregnancies. About 73 percent of all the students in primary schools are under school feeding programs. The indicative phase of food security classification is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Methodology and approach 2.0 Drivers of food and nutrition security in the County .................................................................2 2.1 Rainfall performance 2.2 ConflictInsecurity 2.3 COVID-19 Pandemic 2.4 Other shocks and hazards 2.4.1 Shocks ..............................................................................................................................3 2.4.2 Hazards 3.0 Impact of drivers on food and nutrition security .......................................................................4 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop production ...............................................................................................................5 3.1.2 Main cereal stocks ...........................................................................................................7 3.1.3 Livestock production .......................................................................................................7 3.1.3 Water for Livestock .......................................................................................................11 3.1.4 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................15 3.2 .1 Market prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade ................................................................................................................17 3.2.3 Income sources ..............................................................................................................17 3.2.4 Water access and availability ........................................................................................18 3.2.5 Food Consumption ........................................................................................................20 3.2.6 Coping Strategy .............................................................................................................21 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ...................................................................................21 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation.............................................................22 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ........................................................23 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level action ........................23 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response.......24 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators .............................................................................26 4.0 Food security prognosis ...........................................................................................................29 4.1 Prognosis assumptions .............................................................................................................29 4.2 Food security outlook 5.0 Conclusions and interventions .................................................................................................31 5.1 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................................32 5.1.1 Phase classifications..............................................................................................................32 5.1.2 Summary of finding .......................................................................................................32 5.1.3 Sub County ranking .......................................................................................................32 5.2 Ongoing interventions ......................................................................................................33 5.2.1 Food interventions .........................................................................................................33 5.2.2 Nonfood interventions ...................................................................................................33 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions .........................................................................................................37 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions ...................................................................................................38 1.0 INTRODUCTION Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The area of the County is approximated at 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) and a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics-KNBS). The County is divided into six (7) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the County which include mixed farming, pastoral, agropastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the County across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones including migratory pests like Desert Locusts. 1.1 Methodology and approach The food and nutrition security assessment exercise is usually conducted twice a year to assess the impact of long and short rains on the livelihoods and as such develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis using primary and secondary data. The 2020 Short rains assessment was no different, Primary data was collected from the community in sample sites that would have focus group discussions, key informant and market interviews. Transect drive and observation was also used. Checklists were administered to the relevant departments to collect secondary quantitative data. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data and National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) bulletins. Data collected was then collated, analyzed and triangulated and analysis made by livelihood zones. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were used to do the classification of the severity and identify the possible causes of food insecurity. The assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team from the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of Agriculture, Livestock, Water, Education and Health and Nutrition at the County level. The assessment in the County was done from 18th to 29th January 2021. Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones Baringo County Population by livelihoods Agropastoral Mixed Farming 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July for crop production. The short rains season is in October, November and December (OND). The onset of the OND was normal and took place in the first dekad of October resulting in an average amount of 206 mm against a normal of 180mm. The Southern and Western parts of the County comprising of Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and West of Tiaty Sub Counties received 126 to 200 percent of the normal rains while Baringo South and East of Tiaty Sub Counties received less than 100 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2).Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains were poor with the peak of the season being observed in the second dekad of October. There was early cessation of the season which happened by first dekad of December. 2.2 ConflictInsecurity There is some serious conflict in some parts of the County which has triggered massive security operation by the government in an effort to restore law and order. The conflict has been triggered by issues of natural resource sharing, cattle rustling as well as conflict arising from administrativepolitical boundaries. The main hot spot is currently in Kapedo East and West sub locations in Silale ward, Tiaty Sub County. Other hot spots include Nakoko sub location in Ribkwo ward in Tiaty East Sub County, Kalabata, Tuluk and Kapturo Sub locations in Bartabwa ward of Baringo North sub County, Mukutani, Rugus, Arabal and Kiserian sub locations in Mukutani ward of Baringo South Sub County as well as Barketiew and Loruk sub locations in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. Total of five wards are affected by the insecurity, its estimated that populations affected is 50 percent in Silale ward, 15 percent in Bartabwa ward and 20 percent in Ribkwo, Mukutani and Saimo Soi wards. The conflict has led to food market disruptions leading to their closure in the affected areas while movement of goods and transport services has come to a halt. The conflict has resulted in disruption of livelihood activities and displacement of populations in the affected areas while provision of health and education services has been affected as some schools have been shut down especially in Silale ward. 2.3 COVID-19 Pandemic Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, basic social services were interrupted whereby the number of people seeking essential nutrition and health services in health facilities declined. The County Government put in place mechanisms that ensured that there was continuity in frequency of visits to the health facilities and improve on COVID-19 preventive measures such as placing of hand washing facilities in designated sites with water and soap, screening of patients visiting the health facilities and ongoing Community led total sanitation (CLTS) interventions. With the closure of schools, there was a drastic decline of stocks held by farmers by 40 percent within three Figure 2:Rainfall performance months and this was high compared to long term average (LTA) consumption. Most of the food markets were operational but COVID-19 protocols were not followed strictly, for instance the sampled markets of Emining, Mogotio, Tenges and Kapkayo no functional hand washing facilities were seen, social distancing and wearing of mask was not also followed and its recommended that the regulations be implemented to avoid any spike in the near future. Schools were still closed until January 2021 when they reopened. 2.4 Other shocks and hazards 2.4.1 Shocks High food commodity prices In Pastoral areas, prices of cereals and pulses were relatively higher compared to the previous seasons. With the ongoing conflict in some parts of the pastoral areas, the prices are expected to shoot up further due to disruptions of markets and food supplies. 2.4.2 Hazards Floods The impact of floods caused by rising water levels of Lake Baringo, Lake 94 and Lake Bogoria is still being felt in the affected areas around these lakes in Baringo South Sub County. The floods have caused displacement of households and at least 700 hectares of farm land has been submerged. This has caused reduction of available land for agricultural production mostly in the irrigated livelihood zone. Livestock diseases Some pockets in the County are being affected by livestock diseases thus affecting livestock productivity. In the pastoral areas, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and Pests des petits ruminants (PPR) are the most common diseases affecting the small stock while lumpy skin disease (LSD) and foot and mouth (FMD) diseases are the most common in mixed farming livelihood zone. Blue tongue disease was also reported in the marginal mixed farming areas of Mogotio and irrigated livelihood zone of Mogotio. Desert Locusts The County reported the second wave of Desert Locusts, swarms of immature adults have criss crossed and also roosted in the County, five wards reported invasion (Mochongoi, Kabarnet and Bartabwa, Kolloa and Tenges) The latest swarm of Desert Locusts have roosted at Tenges ward for two days on forested area, causing damage to pasture and fodder, currently surveillance is continuing for purposes of control as residents scare them away also.(Not recommended) The swarms reported at Bartabwa Ward of Baringo North Sub County was moving westward of the County towards Elgeyo Marakwet County. The second Swarm was reported at the border between Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet. The third and fourth Swarms were reported at Mochongoi Ward at the Border between Laikipia County and Baringo. Surveillance and reporting are being carried by trained Scouts and staff. 3.0 IMPACT OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Short rains in Baringo are critical for food and Nutrition security as they supplement the harvest from the Long rains and help in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. In 2020 the County had above normal long rains and this affected land preparation and cropping of the short rains. The short rains of 2020 in the County were slightly above the LTA average. Most of the farmers planted various crops during the OND rains and this increased the area under rain fed crop farming, for instance area under green grams and beans was 82 percent and four percent respectively of their LTA achievement. The crop was good but from the first dekad of December the rains reduced, the early cessation of the rains affected the yield of most rain fed crops by between 30 percent to 40 percent. The crops have been harvested in Agropastoral but in mixed farming harvesting is still going on. The onset of OND rains was timely on the first dekad of October but the cessation was early compared to LTA-i.e. First dekad of December. The distribution over space and time was fair across all the livelihood zones. High temperatures and intermittent dry periods were experienced during the month of December which caused flower abortion in beans affecting the yields and caused stunted growth of late planted maize. The area under crop during the assessment was low compared to the LTA this was because farmers heeded to advisories given by extension officers and Meteorological department on the performance of the short rains which was forecasted to be below average. Farm lands were still submerged by increased waters of Lakes Baringo, 94 and Bogoria (Loboi, Ilchamus and Mukutani) More than 700 Ha of Farmland had been destroyed. Main crops grown in the County are maize, beans, finger millet, cow peas, tomatoes and watermelons. The contribution of these crops to income and food is different across the different livelihood zones (Table 1). Table 1:Contribution of crops to income and food across the cropping livelihood zones Livelihood Income Agro pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed farming Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.1 Crop production Rain fed Agriculture Table 2:Main crops under rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2020 Short rains season Average (5 year) planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2020 Short rains season production (90 kg bags)Tons ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons 1. Maize 2,700 8,020 2. Beans 8,717 13,310 4. Green grams 5. Cowpeas 6. Irish potatoes 1,255 1,289 11,405 13,020 7. Finger Millet The area planted in 2020 short rains season with maize was nine percent lower than the long term average (LTA) and this was attributed to, farmers heeding to weather advisories that the short rains would be insufficient, late harvesting of the long rains crop and some farmers observing closed season to break fall armyworm (FAW) cycle (Table 2). Restrictions on commuters and increased fare in public transport due to COVID-19 meant less farmers could travel to source for farm inputs from outside the County (Nakuru or Eldoret) and inputs like fertilizers were expensive as National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) was not stocking subsidized fertilizer during the short rains. On a positive note the closure of schools created availability of household labour which had a positive impact on land preparation and also timely harvesting especially of the MAM and JJA planted crops. The area under Pulses i.e. beans, green grams and cowpeas increased by five percent. 80 percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA and this was because most farmers had planted the early maturing and drought tolerant crops. Expected Production will be lower than the LTA by 60 percent for maize and this is because of early cessation of the rains and high temperatures being experienced across the County. Production of beans and cowpeas was expected to reduce by 35 percent and two percent respectively and this was attributed to abortion of flowers and households using Cowpeas leaves as vegetables. Irrigated Agriculture Table 3: Main crops under irrigated agriculture planted during 2020 Short rains season (Ha) Average planted during the Short rains season 2020 Short rains season production bags) ProjectedActual Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,500 1,250 Beans Tomatoes Watermelons Cow peas Green Grams Kales Onions Black night shade Spinach There was fair to good recharge of irrigation water sources depending on the livelihood zone. The area under maize reduced by three percent and this was attributed to good long rains harvests that made farmers not to plant again (Table 3). Increased campaigns on household food security led to significant increase in area of the other crops especially horticultural crops and pulses. Deliberate efforts done by the County Government, National Government and development partners had contributed to increase on the area under irrigation including household irrigation for food and Nutrition security. A lot of emphasis has been done on Kitchen gardening through projects like Drought Resilient and Sustainable Livelihood Program (DRSLP), Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Program (KCSAP) and Baringo County Resilient project (SFSP) saw the area under irrigation increase. Production for all crops under irrigation is expected to be higher than the 3.1.2 Main cereal stocks Table 4: Cereal stocks Commodity Held by Maize Sorghum Green gram TOTAL Current Current Current Current Current Farmers 717,384 605,966 1,880 719,967 595,03 Traders 104,105 72,767 104,880 73,344 Millers 35,370 17,463 35,370 17,463 Assistance 14,400 14,403 The stocks held by Households were 20 percent above LTA and this was because farmers had good harvests during the 2020 long rains (Table 4). Mixed farming Livelihood zone had the highest stocks held by farmers, for instance, Eldama Ravine had the highest number of stocks at 52 percent (half of what is held by households) of the total stocks held by households. Traders and Millers had stocks above their long-term average and this was attributed to poor purchasing capacity of the households. The closure of schools due to COVID-19 also affected stocks held by traders as schools were a major market for the traders. During the assessment no NCPB stores had maize stocks except rice which was being sold commercially. But the stores are currently buying maize from farmers at the cost of Kshs 2700, which is higher than the prevailing market price of average Kshs 2500. The pastoral zones have no significant stocks and most of the households were depending on markets for their supplies. There was disruption of market functions in most of the pastoral livelihood zones due to increased conflict while in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone 30 percent of the households had stocks which could last between 1-2 months. In the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones the stocks held are between 60 to 80 percent and this will last between 3- 5 months. With the closure of schools due to COVID-19, there was an increase in household size which led to increased consumption rate of household stocks and on the other hand during the reopening of schools, farmers disposed some of their stocks for payment of school fees. This led to decline of stocks held by farmers by 40 percent within three months and this is high compared to LTA consumption 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. Livestock production is an important source of food and income in the County whereby it contributes 25 percent as a source of food in both mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones whereas in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, it contributes 20 percent and 21 percent respectively. As a source of income, livestock contributes 23 percent, eight percent, 50 percent and 88 percent in mixed farming, irrigated farming, agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The short rains season are important for the regeneration of pastures and browse and at the same time contributing significantly in the recharge of water sources for livestock. The rains are important in supplementing livestock feed by providing crop residues from the farms. Pasture and browse condition The current forage condition and expected duration is due to the cumulative effects of the long rains, short rains and off-season (JJA) rains, overall, there is a decline in forage quantity and quality in the pastoral livelihood zone due to poor performance of the 2020 short rains. The pastures are expected to last for three months in mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and 2-5 months in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones (Table 5). Factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity and tensions around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Pasture conservation and harvesting is picking up as more farmers have been sensitized on its importance as a source of feed during periods of drought spells and also as a source of cash income (Table 6). Table 5: Pasture and browse condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) access Mixed farming limit limit Irrigated cropping to fair Floods Floods pastoral to fair limit to fair limit s and floods to fair s and floods Baled hay status Table 6: Bailed hay status Livelihood No. of Hay Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 7,500 4,500 2 are held by farmers Baringo Central 30 by farmers Association. ERavine 500,000 430,000 80 by farmers 20 FCS Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 150,000 100,000 100 by farmers from community stores Mogotio 500,000 385,000 75By farmer groups individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition During 2020 the County received good long rains, and off-season rains, forage condition was good in all livelihood zones (Table 7). However, the underperformance of short rains coupled with high temperatures has led to rapid depletion of forages quality and nutritional quality thus affecting the performance of livestock. The resultant forage situation has led to both cattle and sheep being in good to fair and fair body condition in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectfully but goats and camels have remained in good condition across all livelihood zones. The present body condition is attributed to present quality of both pastures and browse. Table 7: Livestock body condition d Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Good to Good to Livestock Birth Rates The general birth rates are normal across all livelihood zones, at three percent. The calving, kidding and lambing rates are attributed to good quality pastures across all livelihood zones during gestation period and at birth. The rainfall performance influenced all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and decreased trekking distance. The birth rates are attributed to good performance of both off-season rains (JJA)of 2019 and long rains of 2020 during conception and gestation period. This contributed to good quality forages during this period Tropical Livestock Units Table 8: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average The mixed farming and irrigated crop zone raise crops and keep some livestock for dairy. The agro pastoral zones have livestock and practice some crop production. The pastoral zones depend entirely on livestock with some pockets of drought tolerant crops being planted. The present tropical livestock unit (TLU) possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment (LRA), are attributed to continued good rainfall performance for the last three seasons, which in turn has resulted to increased quality of forage. The variations in TLUs are also attributed to improvement in birth rates due to improved forage quality during conception. The average translated to 3.8 TLU in poor households as compared to 6.9 in medium households (Table 8). The present TLU are compared to 3.4 in poor and 5.7 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLU as compared to last assessment. Milk Availability There was decrease in milk production across the livelihood zones at 25-33 percent and this was attributed to low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficiency of lactating cows (Table 9). The agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are still importing milk from the mixed farming zones while milk prices have increased by 11 percent in irrigated livelihood zone which is the lowest to 25 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, there was notable increase in consumption especially in the pastoral livelihood zone and this was brought about by presence of school going children at home. Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Table 9: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood zone production household (Litres) consumption household (Litres) Prices (KES) Current LTA Current Current LT Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 3.1.3 Water for Livestock The water pans recharge levels were between 35-50 percent and the situation was below normal and it was attributed to underperformance of short rains. and high temperatures and hence high evaporation rates (Table 10). The variation in watering frequency for livestock is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity whereby trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year. There was no effect of COVID-19 on Livestock access to water, however there was lack of adherence to health restriction protocols in watering convergence areas across the livelihood zones. Water for Livestock Table 10: Water for livestock d zone Sources Return trekking distance (Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes 1-2.5 h the h the Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-2.5 h the h the pastoral Water pans, Boreholes , rivers Streams, water pans, Borehole holes, water pans. Water- pans, holes rivers Livestock Movement and Migration There were no reported migrations due to pasture and water deficiency. However, insecurity tensions between Baringo North with Tiaty and Tiaty with Turkana have caused households to move to the interior of their sub-counties. There are minimal migrations from Kinyach, Baringo North and Arabal, Baringo South to the hilly sides in search of pastures. On the Projected trend of migration, its anticipated that in the next two months, livestock are likely to move from Kinyach, Kolloa to Kalabata and Kerio valley areas while others are likely to move from Kapedo to Kasarani, Malaso areas as well as in to Marakwet and West Pokot counties. Other animals are likely to move from Yatya to Sibilo and around areas surrounding Lake Baringo. In areas around Nginyang Loyamorok, animals are likely to move to Amaya and in to Samburu and Laikipia counties. Animals in Mogotio Sub County are likely to move to Nakuru County and Eldama Ravine forest while those in Sibilo and Bartum locations will move to Perkerra, Arabal, Mukutani, TangulBei and then in to Laikipia County. These are not normal movements and are being contributed by the insecurity issues in Tiaty Sub County and deterioration of pasture conditions in the pastoral areas. With the movement of animals, milk production is expected to decline at the household level while local markets are likely to be deprived of animals for sales thus affecting income flow for the pastoral households. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Reported diseases There were few livestock disease cases reported which did not qualify for quarantine as per spatial occurrence (Table 11). Vaccination against lumpy skin disease, (LSD), contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 11: Livestock diseases County Disease Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinati Baringo Central Endemic Goats No report on deaths vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Report later Cattle No action Tiaty Endemic -Sub- Countywise Goats 8,642 Vaccinated Countywise Sheep goats 18,932 Countywise Cattle camels Vaccinations planned Loyamorok, Silale, Tirioko Cattle 5,655 Vaccinated Mogotio Countywise Cattle No vaccinations Endemic Goats Vaccination done Countywise Cattle Vaccination done Tongue Countywise Sheep No vaccinations Countywise Cattle No vaccinations Countywise Small stocvk Vaccination done Eldama Ravine No diseases reported Baringo south Endemic Goats 10,256 Heart water Bekibon Goats Marigat Kimoriot Cattle Mange Kapuikui Goats Lumpy Disease Marigat, Loboi, Salabani Cattle 3,250 Baringo north Countywise (Endemic) Goats No deaths goats vaccinated. Kabartonjo, Bartabwa, Saimo soi,Saimo Kipasaraman Shoats No deaths 19,322 vaccinated typhoid All wards Poultry 200 deaths Treatment on affected Barwessa, Bartabwa Cattle 76 deaths 19,068 vaccinated Anaplasmo Saimo soi Cattle Rabies wards except Saimo No deaths 213 vaccinated 3.1.4 Impact on availability Household maize stocks are above normal compared to long term mean and this should be able to sustain the food requirements of the mixed livelihood zone up to the next long rains harvest while on the other hand, production of pulses will be lower than the LTA due to early cessation of the short rains and therefore the County will have to rely on supplies from outside the County. Milk production is low compared to the LTA thus there is going to be a deficit for milk consumption at the household level particularly in the pastoral areas. Household TLUs are lower than LTA but on a recovery trend while livestock body condition is good which should be able to fetch good prices more so in areas that do not face security challenges. In Tiaty Sub County, the ongoing security operations are likely to trigger massive livestock migrations and other forms of livelihood disruptions which will affect milk production. 3.2 .1 Market prices On effects of COVID-19 on market operations, most of the food stuff markets were operational but COVID-19 protocols were not followed strictly. In the sampled markets of Emining, Mogotio, Tenges and Kapkayo the hand washing facilities were available but were not being utilized, social distancing and wearing of mask was not also followed. Recommendations is to have the regulations implemented to avoid any spike in the near future. In pastoral livelihood zone 85 percent of the population was depending on markets for access of their stocks while in agropastoral zone, 40 percent were depending on markets. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones less than five percent were depending on markets especially those who are urban habitants. The price of maize in the County ranged between Kshs. 27-30Kg in mixed farming livelihood zone and Kshs 42-45 in the pastoral areas while a 90 kg bag was retailing at Kshs 2000-3600. The highest price was recorded in pastoral zone and lowest in the mixed farming Livelihood zone. Most of the stocks were sourced locally from Eldama Ravine Sub County and Mochongoi ward in Baringo South Sub County. In the pastoral, agropastoral and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, more farmers are purchasing from traders and in the next three months more households will be purchasing food from markets as household stocks will have been depleted The main markets for livestock in the County are Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Livestock markets are operational except those in Tiaty Sub County where there is ongoing conflict and security operations have disrupted movement of animals and people to the markets. Livestock animals being traded are mostly being sourced from within the County while the buyers coming from outside the County are mostly from Nairobi and Nakuru counties. For food crops, there were no notable market disruptions in the County during the short rains period. But there was controlled movement of transport to areas affected by conflict in Tiaty Sub County which affected access of food stuffs at the markets. Despite the areas near the lakes experiencing increased water levels, markets were not closed but accessibility was hindered as other means of transportation like boats were being used. In the next six months the operations in the agropastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones will remain stable but in the pastoral zones especially of Tiaty Sub County, markets functions might remain disrupted due to the ongoing conflict. The main source of maize and beans are mostly from within the County although the volumes being traded in mixed farming, marginal mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are extremely low due to low demand as households are still keeping large stocks that were carried forward from the long rains harvest. About five percent, 65 percent and 85 percent of the households in mixed farming, agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are currently dependent on markets for food. Market prices Maize prices There was a rise of eight percent in the prevailing average price for a kilogram of maize at Kshs. 43, compared to the previous month of December at 40 (Figure 3). The prevailing prices were fairly below the long-term average at such time of the year. The price is similar for wet years (Years with heavy rainfall) but slightly less compared to dry years (Years with least rainfall). The increase in prices can be attributed to market disruptions in pastoral areas of Tiaty Sub County Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Kshs .45 per kg and is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing conflict in Tiaty Sub County while irrigated livelihood and mixed farming zones recorded the lowest at Kshs.30 per kg. Goat Prices The average price of a medium sized goat was at Kshs.2,777 as compared previous month December at Kshs. 3,042 (Figure 13). The price was above the LTA by four percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Kshs. 4,283 lowest pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs.2, 598. The decline in price is as a result of disruption of markets. Figure 3: Maize prices Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- January Figure 3: Maize prices 4000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County- January Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade for the month under review decreased comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat was able to fetch 64.6 kgs of maize (Figure 5). This has been attributed to by increasing maize prices in comparison to decreasing goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 95.9 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 57.7 3.2.3 Income sources Livestock production constitutes the main source of income in Pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones at 88 percent and 50 percent respectively while cash crop production is the main source of income in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zone at 59 percent and 30 percent respectively (Table 12). With the lake water rising levels, there is a notable increase in fishing activities as an unintended outcome and thus contributing to household income in agropastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. Table 12:Income sources Source of income Contributions to cash income per livelihood zone () Agropastoral Irrigated Mixed farming Livestock production Food crop production Cash crop production Small businesses Casual waged labour Formal waged labour Poultry production Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in Baringo County - January 2021 Wet Year Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.4 Water access and availability Main sources of water Generally, the main sources of water for domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells (Table 13). The water sources are mainly concentrated in mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Mixed farming and irrigated farming zones Communities have more access to water than in pastoral livelihood zone. Most of the Water pans across the County in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 50-60 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 60-70 percent normally. The available water is likely to last for one to two months as compared to two to three months of their normal. In mixed and irrigated livelihood zones, rivers were recharged 40-60 percent of their normal capacity except for Waseges, Kiserian, Yeptos and Emoo rivers that have low water levels and had low recharges respectively. The water is expected to last for three to four months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are below normal and are in a declining trend due high temperatures, utilization and siltation levels. Currently, 80 - 90 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs for example Kirim , Ngoron, Kapkun , Tinomoi and Barkipi boreholes while water quality challenges is high at Perkerra, Loboi, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Kisrian, Logumgum, Muserech among others areas. Table 13: Main water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three major sources) Normal Operatio Current Operation al Sources Projected Duration (Operati Sources) Normal Duration that water months of full Capacity Recharge d by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Ngooron, Kreeze , Kirim , Ngoron, Barkipii, Tinomoi, Tangulbei, Tebei, Kapkun boreholes Water 1 2 Months 3 4 Months 50 - Springs 3 - 4 Months 4 5 Months 30 - pastoral Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Water Months 3 4 Months 50 - Springs 4Months Over 6 months 30 - Mixed farming Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Springs Over 6 Months Over 6 Months 50 - Rivers Over 6 Months Months 40 - Irrigated cropping Rivers 3months Over 6 months 30 - Shallow Wells 4months Over 6 months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Over 3 Months stable The average distances to domestic water sources were slightly above normal at four to six kilometres in pastoral and four to 4.5km in agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 3.5 5.5 km. The distances were slightly above normal at (1.5 -2.5Km) in mixed farming and stable in irrigated farming livelihood zones at 0.5 15 Km. This was attributed to fair recharge of water sources during the short rains season and household members are forced to walk further in search of water after depleting the nearby sources. The waiting time is stable across all livelihoods zones at 2-4 minutes in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal while in mixed farming livelihood zone is between 2-3 minutes. The waiting time was lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at 1-2 minutes. The cost of water at the source is generally stable at kshs.3 and 5 across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free. The water vendors sold water depending on the distances covered but on average it was at 20 per 20 liters jerrycan. Water consumption per person per day is slightly below normal at 20 25 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone while in agropastoral and pastoral zone it is 12 -20 litres per person per day as compared to normal (Table 14). Table 14:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption livelihood Return Distance Water Domestic Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3 - 4 4 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 2 - 4 12 - 15 12 - 15 3-3.5 4 - 4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 2 - 4 15 - 20 15 - 20 Mixed Farming 0.5 - 1.5 1.5 - 2.5 3 - 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 20 - 25 20 - 25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5- 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 20 - 25 20 - 25 About 2530 percent of households in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Muserechi, Mbechot, Chepkalacha, Sirata, Kaptara, Sintaani reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of inadequate toilet coverage and low levels of personal hygiene. 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food consumption Score Generally, the County had an acceptable Consumption Score of 50 as compared to 49 the previous month (Figure 6). The proportion of households acceptable, borderline consumption score by January 2021 was 73, 25 and two percent respectively. pastoral livelihood zone, about 38.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption and this implies that they are likely to be skipping some nutritious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. Milk consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was similar as compared to the previous month (Figure consumption was highest in the agropastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone Food Consumption Score October 2020-January 2021 Borderline Acceptable Figure 6: Food consumption ProductionHHDayLitre Household Milk Consumption Baringo County- January 2021 Long Term Mean Figure 7: Milk consumption 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The average coping strategy index was at 12.7, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 12.47 (Figure 8). Households in agropastoral livelihood employed more coping strategies at 16.6 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14. The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past six months followed those pastoral livelihood zone. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns a) Adults Generally, morbidity trends among adult population is lower than in the year 2017 and 2019 but higher than in 2018 (Figure 9). During the short rains season, the cases have been on a declining trend. 10.0 15.0 20.0 Coping strategy Index October 2020- January 2021 Irrigated Agro pastoral Figure 8:Coping strategy index Figure 9:Adult morbidity Morbidity and Mortality patterns in adults b) Children Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in the County for children (Figure 10). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2018 was higher compared to the other years same period, the year 2020 recorded a lower morbidity rates due to COVID- 19 pandemic attributing to low health seeking behavior. Disease prevalence There reported outbreak of disease during the short rains period July- December 2020 as compared to the previous year 2019, due to improved hygiene promotion and child caring practices as most of the people following COVID-19 measures (Figure 11). 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Table 15: Immunization and Vitamin A coverage Year Children 6-11 months Children 12-59 months Children 6-11 months Children 12-59 months Received vitamin supplementation Total Population (6-11 months) Total Population (12-59 months) Total Population (12-59 months Proportion children Received Vit A supplementation in the last 6 months Proportion children Received supplementation months Not Available Not Available Figure 10: Child morbidity Morbidity of Children Less than Five Years 2017 - 2020 Diarrhoea Malaria Malaria Diarhoea Typhoid Dysentry Cholera Measles Number of Cases Diseases Disease Prevalence Figure 11:Disease Prevalence Not Available Not Available Vitamin A coverage decreased in 2020 as compared to similar period of the previous year 2019 and this was attributed to effects of COVID-19, which led to reduction in community-based activities including vitamin A supplementation and mobilization in community units by community health volunteers (CHVs) and health workers (Table 15). Inadequate campaignscommunity mobilization to reach the target under-five population due to COVID-19 pandemic and Health workers strike also affected Vitamin A coverage during the reporting period. Immunization coverage in year 2020 increased despite the impact of COVID-19 as compared to the year 2019, this could be attributed to increase in the number of outreaches supported by partners during the COVID-19 pandemic period and improved defaulter tracing mechanisms, although Tiaty and Baringo North sub counties couldnt achieve the fully immunized targets.. 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition sector in COVID-19 context There was lack of information on the availability of services as the community health workers were not able to deliver services without personal protective equipment and they were also exposed to the risk of contracting the disease. Generally, there was anxiety and fear of COVID-19 and that interrupted basic social services and health services. The department of health had to put in place mechanisms on continuity of essential services like reduced frequency of visits and client follow- up through phone calls. The County government endeavored to strengthen COVID-19 guidelines by supporting the purchase of hand washing facilities and distributed them to the social places such as markets, bus terminus, schools and shopping centers among others. The County Government also enhanced enforcement on use of face mask and supported the vulnerable population through procurement and supply of basic foods and to a larger extend gave out cash transfers to the old population. The County invested in dealing with stigma through advocacy as a way of allaying fears associated with COVID-19 thus encouraged the community to seek health services as they had clear information on the COVID-19 guidelines and the continuity of health services. Most of the line ministries budgets were re-directed in combating the pandemic therefore affecting all the aspects of the supply chain management while the global lock downs affected the supply of nutrition commodities as they are procured from other countries where movement transport was interfered with. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level action Community engagement initiatives and messaging were driven through the use of print media while Health promotion teams at the County and Sub County levels engaged themselves in community outreach advocacy services. Use of local radio stations programs was instrumental in passing out COVID-19 information to the community. There was high adherence to COVID-19 directives in urban population due to better socio-economic status as compared to rural populations where dogmatic believes affected reception and adherence to COVID-19 directives. The County embarked on robust food distribution programs to the vulnerable population to cushion them against the effects of the pandemic and also procured other health essentials and nutrition commodities for treatment of moderate malnutrition. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response There was a functional coordinating system in the department of health services for all health services as there already existed a health stakeholders forum which held its meeting on quarterly basis. Also, there is a County nutrition technical forum which is cascaded down to the Sub County level and is held on a quarterly basis. 3.3.7 Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage and utilization Table 16: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine Coverage January to June 2020 Coverage July to December 2020 Coverage Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Pokot Tiaty East Baringo County The toilet coverage in the County is average 38 percent and the distribution is seven percent, 18 percent, 23 percent and 52 percent in pastoral, agropastoral, irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively and this is attributed to culture and nature of livelihood zones (Table 16). Toilet coverage in mixed livelihood zone is higher as a result of concentrated development in terms of urban setup and exposure to quality sanitation while in irrigated cropping it is low due to few settlements at the farm fields. Water treatment was being done by a dismal 4.4 percent households in Tiaty Sub County while 28.6 percent in Baringo North and South did the same. The most common treatment method used in Baringo North and South was boiling (71.1 percent) while in Tiaty most of the households used pot filters (59.1 percent) (SMART Survey, July 2019). The low water treatment rates may be the cause of the water borne diseases reported in the community Hand washing during critical moments Hand washing at the four critical moments was at two percent in Tiaty, 10.2 percent in Baringo North and South sub counties. Those who used soap and water were 24.7 percent in Tiaty while in Baringo North and South sub counties, those who did hand washing using soap and water were 69.5 percent. However, there could be an increase in the proportion of hand washing during the four critical time and use of soap due to the on-going COVID-19 sensitization by Baringo County Government and Partners. Nutrition status Table 17:Nutrition status by weight for age SMART survey years Prevalence of weight for age (Underweight) Data not available County average: 21.4 Tiaty sub County: 40.4 Tiaty sub County: 29.1 County average: 18.7 The nutritional status of children under five assessed by weight for age shows to be reducing from 2017 to 2019 in all the livelihood zones (Table 17), which was attributed to scale-up of nutrition interventions in the County. Table 18: SMART survey findings of 2019 SMART survey years Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) by weight for height Z scores Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) by weight for height Z scores Chronic Malnutrition (Stunting) Height for age Z scores Data not available Data not available Data not available County average:9.3 Tiaty County:20.9 County average:2.3 Tiaty Sub County: 9.3 County average: Tiaty sub County: Tiaty sub County: 16.68 County average: Tiaty sub-County: 4 County average: 0.2 Tiaty sub County: County average: 25.2-Tiaty County 5.8-Tiaty sub County Tiaty County The nutritional status of children under five shows that wasting and stunting was high in Tiaty Sub County in the year 2017 as compared to 2018 while County malnutrition rates reduced in 2018 as compared to other years due to blanket supplementary feeding strategy and scale-up of high impact nutrition interventions (Table 18). Admissions both severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) clients in 2020 was largely below long-term average and significantly fewer compared to similar period the previous year. This was attributed to fear of COVID-19 which was reported in the Country in March 2020 and health workers strike affecting facility visits admission hence reduced screening referral services at community level by Community health Volunteers. Nutrition status by MUAC The nutrition status of the sampled children using measurement of mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) under five years of age was stable and on a declining trend from the month of August to December 2020 but rose sharply in January 2021. The increment in January was observed in the pastoral livelihood zone and this was attributed to reduction production. malnutrition cases are expected to increase further as the area is currently facing insecurity challenges which have disrupted markets hence affecting flow of household incomes which would have been used to purchase food 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 19: Food Security Trends 3.5 Education Indicator Short rains assessment, January Long rains assessment, July, 2020 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) Agropastoral Good to Fair Agropastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per Agropastoral 15-25 Agropastoral 20-25 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 25-30 10.5 Proportion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm in Baringo County within July 2020-January 2021 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Figure 12:Nutritional Status by MUAC 3.5.1 Enrolment Table 20: Enrolment LEVEL TERM II 2021 TERM 1 2020 DEVIATION PERCENTAGE 25,283 27,360 GIRLS 24,143 22,753 TOTAL 49, 426 50,113 71,237 76,801 GIRLS 66,929 71,760 TOTAL 138,166 148,561 10,395 23,660 24,734 1,074 GIRLS 25,094 25,995 TOTAL 48,754 50,729 1,975 ECDE enrolment during the opening of term II, 2021 reflected a deviation of boys -7.6 percent and girls 6.1 percent from enrolment of term 1 2020 while in primary school enrolment showed a deviation of -7.2 percent and -6.7 percent boys and girls respectively from enrolment in term 1, 2020 (Table 20). Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 25-30 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 20-25 Price of maize (per kg) Kshs 40 Kshs 47 Distance to grazing Agropastoral Agropastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping 0.5-1.5 Mixed Farming Mixed Farming 0.5-1.5 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13 Agropastoral-17 Pastoral-13 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-13 Agropastoral-20 Pastoral-14 Irrigated Cropping-4 consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline While in secondary schools, 4.3 percent of boys and 3.4 percent of girls didnt report back to school for term II 2021 and this was contributed by several factors including fear of contracting COVID- 19, lack of school fees, lack of school meals program, circumcision of boys, pregnancies among school girls, charcoal burning, fishing, and motorbike businesses among others. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools During the pandemic period, a number of parents and guardians lost their incomes and livelihoods resulting from job layoffs and collapse of businesses, the loss of income meant that they could not afford to pay school fees for their children. To mitigate on the loss of income by parents and guardians it forced some students to be transferred from private schools to public schools especially around urban areas such as Kabarnet and Mogotio towns. There were also other parents who were yet to send their students back to school due to fear of contracting COVID-19 at school, inability to buy masks and sanitizers for their children. During the prolonged closure of schools, some parents took their boys for circumcision ceremonies and some of them are yet to return to school mostly in the pastoral livelihood zone, while cases of teenage pregnancies were reported in nearly all the schools. Total of 5,732 girls did not report back to school for term two for both primary and secondary schools, for the girls not reporting back it was estimated that about 70 percent of the cases could have been due to pregnancies. During the short rains period, there were no reports of infrastructure damages, food store damages, child abuse, physical violence and school gender-based violence. Cases of child labour were reported in pastoral areas of Baringo South mostly around the lakes where boys were engaged in fishing as a result of rising levels of the lakes. The percentage of students accessing E-learning offered by Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) through various platforms was less than 20 percent and this was contributed by a number of factors like poor internet connectivity, lack of interest from students, lack of appropriate gadgets such as smart phones. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains on schools There were schools that were affected by floods during the long rains season (MAM and JJA) and are still marooned by the floods, these include Ngambo primary and secondary school, Lake Bogoria Girls, Loruk primary and Day Mixed Secondary and Lake Baringo Secondary school which was relocated to higher grounds. 3.5.4 School feeding program The County benefits from two types of school meals these are: Home Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) and Regular School Meals Program (RSMP). A total of 28,582 (14,610 boys and 13,972 girls) are under RSMP. The HGSMP program funds a total of 79,339 learners of whom 40,952 are boys while 38,387 are girls. A total of 107,921 students (55, 562 boys and 52,359 girls) are under school feeding program while 39,286 students (20,696 boys and 18,590 girls) are not under any school feeding program. All ECDE learners are supported by the two school feeding programs. However, by end of January 2021, funds for HGSMP had not been disbursed to schools. 3.5.5 Inter Sector links The National Government through the Ministry of Education (MOE) provided masks to some schools, water tanks and teachers were trained to guide and counsel children during the opening of term two 2021. Sensitize children on MOH COVID-19 protocols in schools particularly observing social distance. The GOK through MOE have also provided desks to help maintain social distance to few schools that were identified as very needy. These desks were provided at a cost of Kes 2500.00 for primary schools and Kes 3,800 for secondary schools. In secondary schools, funds were provided to expand classrooms to meet the MOH protocols and funding of free day secondary education. The Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government through the chiefs and Nyumba Kumi are continuing to collaborate in identifying children who have not reported back to school. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to FEWSNET Food security outlook report of December 2021, international forecasts and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) predict that La Nia conditions are expected to persist at least through April 2021. The Long rains season of 2021 will be normal. High day light temperatures are expected to persist up to March 2021. COVID-19 cases are likely to persist in the first half of 2021 and therefore necessitating the continuation of restrictions and other COVID-19 control measures. According to the Desert Locust Global Forecast by FAO, a small third generation of breeding is likely to commence in October in Samburu County and other areas with residual swarms but may be limited by the forecasted below-normal October to December short rains that will limit the moisture needed for the hatching of laid eggs. However, with the change of monsoon winds during the October-December short rains season, there is a risk of re-invasion from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen into Kenya. The swarms have already entered Kenya and Baringo has experienced invasion. The ongoing conflict and security operations in Tiaty Sub County are likely to last through February to March 2021. This will likely trigger livestock migrations within and outside the County. Forage conditions in range lands are likely to deteriorate in pastoral and agropastoral areas due to the depressed short rains season. Food prices are expected to be above normal in pastoral areas due to market disruptions due to insecurity. Lake water levels will continue to be higher than normal and that the long rains will exacerbate the situation. Water access and availability will be stressed in pastoral areas for the next two months Other than in pastoral areas, livestock body condition will remain good to fair. In pastoral areas, livestock body condition is likely to deteriorate in the next two months. Malnutrition rates will be below the long-term means 4.2 Food security outlook Food security outlook for the next three months (February, March, April) Food consumption is likely to worsen more so in pastoral areas like Tiaty due to limited access to food as market operations have been interrupted by conflict. Household in pastoral areas are expected to employ more coping strategies to overcome food shortages. Water availability and access will be stressed as the high temperatures being experienced in the County will increase the evaporation of water resources from surface based open sources. Maize prices will remain below the LTA apart from the pastoral areas while terms of trade will be unfavorable in areas experiencing insecurity challenges due to low livestock prices and high food prices. Malnutrition cases in the County are expected to remain stable other than pockets of pastoral areas where the rates are likely to rise. Household stocks will remain stable and sustain the County up to the onset of the next rainfall season. Household incomes are likely to decline with the re-introduction of the pre COVID-19 tax rates hence less money to purchase food and non-food items. Food security outlook (May, June, July) Livestock body condition is expected to be good due to the availability of good forage occasioned by the long rains season hence an increase in milk production is expected. Household stocks will be lower than normal pending replenishment from the long rains harvest while water resources in terms of access and availability will be normal as a result of water source recharge from the long rains. Livestock and cereal prices are likely to be normal across the County as markets shall have resumed normal operations after restoration of security in conflict prone areas. Sanitation and hygiene will likely be compromised around areas bordering the lakes due to flooding. Crop performance is expected to be good due to the forecasted normal long rains but the gains might be reversed if another wave of locust invasion was to materialize. Household incomes are likely to improve due to the expected better market prices for both crops and livestock which will lead to an improvement in the terms of trade. Food consumption at the household will be good due to improved household incomes and crop yield while water consumption will be normal to above normal following recharge of water sources. Milk consumption is expected to be normal following improvement in milk production and therefore causing a reduction in malnutrition incidents in the County. 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classifications The phase classification for the County is stressed (IPC PHASE 2). Some populations in pastoral livelihood zone that are facing insecurity challenges are likely are likely to fall into crisis due to challenges of food access, though may not meet the threshold to classify the area under phase 3. 5.1.2 Summary of finding The onset of the short rains season was early in the first dekad of October while the distribution in terms of time and space was poor to fair. Amounts received were near normal with the western and Northern parts of the County receiving more than 100 percent of their normal rains while southern and eastern parts received less than 100 percent of their normal rains. The County is facing security challenges mostly in Tiaty Sub County which has affected market operations and other service delivery. Area under acreage for maize declined slightly for both rain fed and irrigated agriculture due to depressed season while household stocks are above the long-term average due to the carry overs from the long rains harvest. Forage conditions are good apart from the pastoral livelihood zone where they are in poor to fair conditions while TLUs are lower than LTAs but higher than what was recorded in the previous assessment. Milk production is normal other than in pastoral areas where it is below normal while milk prices are above the long term means across all the livelihood zones. No major livestock disease outbreak was reported. Cases of market interruptions have been reported in pastoral areas that are currently facing security challenges but in other parts of the County, market operations are normal. Water access and availability is stable although in pastoral areas, return trekking distances are above normal with available water in surface based open sources being less than 50 percent. The terms of trade are stable and above the long term means due to the prevailing price stability in cereals and livestock. Food consumption score is acceptable across the livelihood zones while water consumption is normal. Milk consumption is below normal while milk prices are above the LTAs. Household are applying normal coping strategies although households in pastoral and agro pastoral are applying more coping strategies in comparison to other areas. Food consumption score is acceptable across the County while milk consumption is below normal. Water consumption at household level is normal while malnutrition cases are low and stable according to MUAC data. The overall county IPC classification is in phase two. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking County Predominant Livelihood security rank (1-6) Main food security threat Contributing factors Tiaty Conflict Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition High food prices Market interruptions Disruption of transport services Low livestock prices Livestock diseases Poor access to extension services Baringo South Irrigated Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Livestock diseases Displacement of populations Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition Baringo North Agropastoral Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Displacement of populations Human wildlife conflict Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition Mogotio Agropastoral Poor water quality Fair forage conditions Pasture harvesting and conservation Baringo Centra Mixed Farming Functional markets Better access roads Availability of green vegetables and fruits Eldama Ravine Mixed Farming Stable farm produce Good forage conditions Very Good (5-6) Good (4) Fair (3) Poor (1-2) 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions There are no ongoing food interventions for now. 5.2.2 Nonfood interventions Agriculture sector Sub County Intervention Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty West, Baringo Central Resilient building program households invaded DL- Supply inputs (Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman, Sacho, Ewalel ChapChap, ChuroAmaya, TangulbeiKor ossi, Mukutani, Mochongoi 3,275 County Government of Baringo, Forest Action Network (FAN) Restoratio livelihood destroyed by DL 2.3 M Novembe February Baringo South Lining Sandai Irrigation scheme Mochongoi National Irrigation Authority Increased area under irrigated agricultur Baringo north expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Barwessa Ministry of agriculture and national government Improved supply 2013- Youth Business youth Groups County Government Increase engageme Youth in Agribusin Nutrition Sensitive and Utilization initiatives 25,000 WFP, SHA, County Government of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household nutrition stability in security 300 M Livestock sector Sub County Intervention Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo North Livestock upgrading 600HH RPLRP, Increased productio Aug2020 -onwards Tiaty Capacity strengthenin g to Youth groups communities 1,200 Resilience building to through youth 16.8M Jan,2021 pasture, beekeeping and trainings County-wise Provision of pasture seeds 200HH Pasture availabilit during drought period July,202 presently Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio, 2,500Kg Increased income and food Sept, Tiaty Provision of beehives 3,000HH Boost livestock Health On-going Baringo North Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, 2000HH RPLRP Improve communit livelihood gointg Countywide Capacity building Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Infirmed staff farmers practices Through Water sector Countywide Water trucking Institutions On going Countywide rehabilitation 380HH KRCS, UNCEF On going Countywide COVID-19 - Tanks Installations positioning BCG ADS Church AID Partially Complete Countywide Construction of New water Projects 1560HH BCG, NG, On going Countywide n of BHs 2155 HH RCS, WV going Countywide Drilling and Equipping of 2620 HH going Countywide Capacity building water management Catchment protection 2130 HH PLRRP, UNCEF On going Health and Nutrition Building the capacity CHVs caregivers on Kolowa Lokis Wards in Tiaty West Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 15,000 FSK and Support formation of new M2MSG and CMSG, and monthly meetings of M2MSG Ptikii, Kreese Chepturu CUs Tiaty West Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 15,000 2021 April FSK and IMAM surge strengthening monitoring admission in health facilities and update of the dash board 16 facilities in Tiaty Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 50,000 going UNICEF, Strengthen Timely monthly requisition of nutrition commodities for treatment severe malnutrition counties-120 health facilities offering IMAM Severely Malnouris children below years 100,000 SCNC, Nutrition sensitive activities- g Household Nutrition security Establishmen t of Kitchen gardens and small animal raring promote dietary diversificatio Tiaty, Baringo, south, Central, North Mogotio Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 100,000 Upscaling routine deworming facilities and ECDs -- Baringo County children below years 2,200,000 80,000 UNICEF, uzazi facilities, outreaches and ECD and through Malezi bora weeks-June every year Supplementat Strengthen management diarrheal diseases health facilities children below years 867,000 75,000 routine UNICEF Management Acute Malnutrition (IMAM 100 health facilities Strengthen access treatment of malnutrition All 100 IMAM facilities Children below years 22,000,000 30,000 National, UNICEF 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Population in need of food assistance Sub-County security rank (Worst to best) Main food security threat Contributing factors Proportion in need of Immediate assistance () Tiaty Conflict Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition High food prices Market interruptions Disruption of transport services Low livestock prices Livestock diseases Poor access to extension services 25-30 Baringo South Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Livestock diseases Displacement of populations Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition 10-15 Baringo North Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Displacement of populations Human wildlife conflict Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition 10-15 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions Agriculture sector recommendations Sub County Intervention beneficiar Implementers Impacts in terms security Frame Countywide Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building post-harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County Government and FAO, WFP Other development partners, Finances (Kshs million) Staff County wide Value addition produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling fortification of flour Market linkages Mogoti Mariga Tenges WFP and County Government Baringo Staff, Groups identifie support Countywide Enhance asset creation households especially ponds and water pans production especially Kitchen Gardening National Government, County Government and development partners Finances (Kshs 200 Million) Staff Countywide Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting analysis crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes canaling National Government, County Government and development partners Finances (Kshs 200 Million) Staff Livestock sector recommendations -BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty(LSD, CCPP) -Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR National government and Development partners -May, Tiaty, BNorth(LS -Disease surveillance 270,000 goats Mar,202 1-June, Countywide Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves; ward level 3 in Tiaty, Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio 4,500HH Countywide harvesting and baling machinery 41,500HH Countywide Provision COVID-19 control facilities masks, water washing tanks 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Onwards related sanitizers -COVID-19 - sensitization at markets Water sector interventions Countywide 15 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units 2480HH KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, months Countywide Stock piling of Fast-Moving Spares 18 No. community water supplies 1,260 HHs areas KRCS, UNCEF, NDMA 300,000 months Countywide Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Communit Water supplies KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NDMA months Countywide Supply Water treatment equipments water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc 3,000HHs KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NDMA Months Countywide Water trucking to vulnerable Institutions Communities 40-60 Institutions KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NEMA, NDMA, WFP Months Health Sector interventions Pastoral and agropastoral Zones screening 50 sites County department health services, KRCS, UNICEF Catholic mission, 1,500,000 1 year East Pokot, Baringo North, Integrated medical outreaches 30 sites County department health services, KRCS, UNICEF, 5,000,000 1 year Marigat Mogotio Action catholic, NDMA pastoral and pastoral Zones Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs chemicals County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID 3,000,000 1 year All pastoral agropastoral Dissemination of health and nutrition messages the community County County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID 4,000,000 200,000 1 year Tiaty East, East Pokot, Marigat, Baringo, North, Mogotio and Baringo central Nutrition sensitive interventions- scale-up 18 wards County department health services, WFP, Self Help Africa (SHA) 10,0000,00 2,000,00 1 year imam surge in 40 health facilities Implement imam surge Tiaty East, West, Baringo North and South County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID, WVK, NDMA 6,000,000 1,500,00 1 year Pastoral and agropastoral zones Trained caregivers on family MUAC 11 sentinel sites County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTION WVK, NDMA 3,000,000 1 year",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2019.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2019 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG) February, 2020 The 2019 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance was above normal. Some off season rains were also received in January. The main drivers of food insecurity were livestock diseases, conflict and malaria outbreak. Food stocks are available with the bulk of it being held at the household level. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by good livestock body condition, near normal milk production as well as high livestock prices. Terms of trade are good mostly for pastoral households. Markets are functional and are well stocked with the basic household items though Barwessa market was closed due to quarantine measures. Conflict tension may lead to market disruptions in pastoral areas. Water access and availability for both household and livestock consumption is good. Return trekking distances and waiting time are lower than the long term means. Water consumption per person per household is above long term means across all the livelihoods and is 20 to 30 litres on average. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral areas at three percent. Generally, a proportion of three (3), 21 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption respectively. There was an upsurge of malaria cases by 56 percent in the month of January compared to the previous month of December 2019. Normal coping strategies are being employed. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased marginally in the month of January probably due to upsurge of malaria cases. Baringo County is classified in Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC Phase Two (Stress, IPC Phase 2) while the irrigated, agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase One). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.1. County Background ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.2. Objectives of the Assessment .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3. Methodology and Approach ............................................................................................................ 5 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY...................................... 5 2.1. Rainfall Performance ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2. InsecurityConflict .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................................... 6 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ............................................ 6 3.1. Availability ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1. Crop production ............................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2. Cereal stocks.................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1.3. Livestock production ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. Access ............................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.1. Market operations ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.2. Terms of Trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3. Income sources ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4. Water access and availability ....................................................................................................... 15 3.2.5. Food consumption ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.6. Coping strategy ............................................................................................................................ 17 3.3. Utilization .................................................................................................................................... 17 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ....................................................................................... 19 3.5. Education..................................................................................................................................... 20 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ................................................................................................. 21 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions ................................................................................................................. 21 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) ............................................................................ 22 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) ............................................................................. 22 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS ..................................................................................... 22 5.1. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2. Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................................... 23 5.3. Recommended interventions .......................................................................................................... 27 5.3.1.Non- Food Interventions ............................................................................................................... 27 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the Assessment The main objective of the 2019 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains season of 2019 in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2019 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution Figure 1: Propotion of Population Per Livelihoods Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Crops Figure 2 Rainfall performance 1.3 Methodology and Approach The 2019 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th to 14th February 2020. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact- finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was early in the first dekad of October compared to the normal of second dekad of October. On average, the County received a total of 476.68 mm of rainfall against the long term average of 179.68 mm. Most parts of the county received 201-350 percent of normal rains while a few pockets received 141-200 percent of normal short rains (Figure 2). Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was good. The rains ceased normally in the third dekad of December. The county did receive off season rains during the third dekad of January 2020. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Cases of resources based conflict emerged in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North sub county, ChuroAmaya and Loyamorock wards in Tiaty Sub County were reported. This created some tension in the affected areas and threatening normal functioning of the markets. However, the conflict only lasted for 3 weeks and had since been resolved by the local administrations. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards Livestock disease outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Baringo North Sub County leading to closure of livestock markets such as Barwesa. This affected market access and subsequently affecting household incomes. A swarm of locusts was also reported in Tirioko ward, Tiaty Constituency in mid-January 2020. However, the impact of the locusts on food security is still insignificant. Floods and excess rains also interfered with farm preparation activities leading to less acreage being put under crop. Some crops were also swept away by floods. Outbreak of malaria cases in January also affected food utilization in the county. 3. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed (major crops) Short rains in Baringo are critical for food and Nutrition security as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and helps in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. The short rains of 2019 in the County were above the LTA average. Most of the farmers did not plant during the short rains season and this reduced the area under rain-fed crop farming, this was as a result of extended June-July-August rains which overlapped with the onset of the short rains, hence farmers didnt prepare their farms on time. For instance, area under maize and beans was 40 percent and 96 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Acreage under maize went down as the early onset coupled with intense rains interrupted land preparation. The crop in the field is stable although some has been affected by floods especially in Kerio Valley, Barwessa ward where 86 Hectares of maize were destroyed by rains. Close monitoring of the continuing rains is being done Table 1: Area under Rain-fed Crop Production Area planted during 2019 Short rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2019 Short rains season production (90 kg bags)Tons ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons 1. Maize 3,150 8,300 2. Beans 7,988 13,491 4. Irish Potatoes 1,467 1,289 13,313 13,020 5. Cowpeas 6. Green grams In addition, there was an outbreak of desert locust which invaded Kamurio, Maron, Rotu and Tiaty hills in Tiaty Sub County. Other areas where the outbreak was reported included sibilo, Bartabwa and Kuikui in Baringo North sub County, and Koriema in Baringo South Sub County. The damage caused was negligible on both crops and pasture as control measures were undertaken. The County is in high alert for any outbreak of desert locusts for appropriate control measures to be taken. The projected short rains maize and beans production reduced as compared to the long term average production due to reduction in acreage planted as well as skeptism by farmers about the reliability of the short rains. Irrigated Agriculture Table 2: Area under irrigated Agriculture planted during 2019 Short rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season 2019 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 2,813 1,340 Tomatoes Water melons The area under maize increased by 141 percent of the LTA (Table 2). This was due to recharge of water sources and most farmers who didnt plant under rain fed opted to plant using irrigation water hence the increased acreage. The overlap of the June-August rains with the short rains also favored irrigation farming. The production of maize was 210 percent of the long term average. There were some fungal and bacterial diseases that affected most of the tomatoes and black night shade in the field. 3.1.2. Cereal stocks Table 3: Main Cereal stocks in the County Commodity Maize Sorghum TOTAL Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 607,721 593,945 1,825 710,905 716,762 Traders 76,882 102,373 1,356 2,465 1,368 2,465 Millers 26,302 20,444 2,322 1,288 Food AidNCPB Farmer stocks were above the long term average (Table 3) by two percent and this was attributed to cumulative effects of rainfall performance of the short rains and long rains seasons of 2019. The bulk of the stocks are held in Eldama Ravine Sub County. Traders stocks are below long term averages (LTA) and are not moving due to low demand in the market. The sorghum stocks held by farmers are 248 percent above LTA as the rains were very favorable for the crop. Farmers are continuing to sell their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline in the next three months. Currently households in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones have limited stocks compared to those in the mixed and irrigated areas. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are also depending on traderslocal markets for their supplies. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sale their produce within two months. 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species kept in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The short rains in Baringo County are very important in pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum and millet straw not to forget the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Table 4 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Livestock Contribution to Income and Food Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and Browse Condition Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration last (Months) Factors access Condition Projected Duration last (month) Factors access Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral tensions tensions The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones (Table 5). The duration pasture is expected to last three months as compared to normal 2-3 months while browse is expected to last four months compared to 2-3 months normally. There is limitation to forage in Saimo Soi and Kapedo as result of security challenges. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is currently good across all livelihood zones (Table 6). The condition is attributed to good quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain if the present rains continue. The livestock body condition may affect livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Birth Rates The general birth rates were three percent across all livelihood zones as a result favorable conditions. This is attributed to good conception enabled by adequate forage of high quality. The deviations were due to levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) The average tropical livestock holding was 3.08 for poor households and 4.9 in medium households (Table 7). The present TLUs are compared to three (3) in poor and 4.7 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Table 7: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Average Milk Availability Milk availability slightly increased and was attributed to improved forage quality, and reduction in trekking distance (Table 8). The increases resulted in decrease in milk prices to Ksh.30-50 in mixed and irrigated cropping zones, while in agro-pastoral and pastoral zones, milk retailed at Ksh 60 per litre. Some households in the pastoral livelihoods zones were still getting milk from mixed farming zones. Milk consumption was 2-2.5 litres as compared to 2-3 litres long term average. Table 8: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) consumption HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Current LTA Current Current LTA Mixed farming 30-50 Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani (Table 9). The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 80-90 percent but are still being recharged with the presence of off-season rains. The trekking distance was stable at 3-7 kilometers. The watering frequency remained constant across all livelihood zones adequate water availability due to enhanced rains. Access to water from the lakes was limited by crocodile hazards. Table 9: Water for Livestock Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers, streams Streams, water pans, Boreholes 2-3 months 3 months Pastoral holes, water pans, rivers Water- pans, holes, rivers 2-3 months 3 months Livestock Migration There were no reported migrations due to pasture and water deficiency. However, insecurity tensions between Baringo North with Tiaty Sub County on one hand and Tiaty Sub County with Turkana County have caused households to move to the interior of their sub-counties. Cases of livestock migration are not expected in the next three months due to the prevailing favorable water and forage conditions. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The notifiable disease reported was Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Barwessa Ward (Table 10). In the process, quarantine was imposed leading to a closure of all the markets in the ward. The other diseases reported in the county were normal in their normal ranges. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 10: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations Baringo Central Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Chicken 100 chicken Endemic Salawatenges Cattle No deaths Re-current Tiaty Sub-county-wise Goats Sub-county-wise Sheep and goats Loyamorok Cattle camels Kolloa Cattle 3 cattle Eldama Ravine Majimazuri mumberes,Koiba Cattle 6 cases reported No action Abortions Ravine ward Cattle 8 cases reported Ravine,Perkerra, L.kwen Cattle 15 cases reported Baringo south Kimorok Goats Heart water Illchamus Goats 40 goats Mochongoi Cattle No deaths reported Mange Marigat Goats No deaths reported Lumpy Disease Marigat Goats No deaths reported Baringo north Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Goats 17 goats Endemic Saimo Soi, Barwessa Shoats 16 goats 23,450 vaccinated Bartabwa Cattle No deaths 23,050 vaccinated Saimo soi, Barwessa Cattle No deaths Quarantine Barwessa Cattle No deaths Re-current Sheep pneumonia Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman 9 sheep Re-current Sibilo Shoats 28 cattle Helminthia Sub-countywise Shoats Anaplasmo Saimo soi Cattle Rabies Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman No deaths 325 vaccinated Anthrax Kbo, Saimo Kipsaraman, Bartabwa Cattle 20 deaths 5026 vaccinated E.C.Fever Cattle 13 deaths 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Market operations were normal albeit for Barwesa market, which was disrupted due to quarantine as a result of FMD outbreak. The major food commoditiesstaples were available in the markets from the previous seasons harvest. Supplies from other markets outside the County were also stable. Markets play a crucial role towards achieving accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income. Maize Prices The current average price for kilogram maize was at Ksh. 47, a marginally increase of four percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46 (Figure 4). The price was stable in in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.49 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.33 per Kg. This can be attributed by the decreasing stocks at household levels and increased stocks at local retailers. Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent at Kshs.111.2 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 124. (Figure 4). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of beans in the irrigated livelihood zone and influx of the commodity in the pastoral livelihood zones as the beans come from the neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet County.Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.125 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 Figure 3. Maize Prices Figure 4. Beans Prices Goat prices The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at KSh. 2,917 as compared to the previous month at KSh. 3,065 (Figure This goat price was above the LTA by percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at KSh. 3,667 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 500. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions and limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. 3.2.2. Terms of Trade The terms of trade decreased by eight percent in comparison to the previous month of January at 66.9 to currently 61.7 (Figure 6). This was attributed to slight decrease in goat prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 96.5 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 55.6 3.2.3. Income Sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 11 below. Table 11: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing Figure 5. Goat Prices Figure 6: Terms of trade 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Generally, the water sources are mainly concentrated in the mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, in the mixed farming and irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the water pans across the county in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 60-70 percent normally. The available water is likely to last 3-4 months as compared to 2-3 months normally. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity except for Keriwok and Cheptuya water pans that have low water levels and low recharges respectively as a result of their structural designs and facility locations. The water is expected to last 3-4 months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are stable but on slight reducing trend due to high temperatures, utilization and siltation levels. Currently, 90 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns for example Kreeze borehole, Kirim borehole, Ngoron, Kapkun borehole, Silonga borehole and water quality challenges like Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima along the western rift valley of Baringo county (Table 11). Table 12: Major Water Sources Ward Livelihoo d zone Water Source (Three major sources) No. of Normal Operatio No. of Current Operati Sources Projecte Duration (Operati Sources) Normal Duratio n that water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Bh, Kirim Bh , Ngoron, Kapkun BH, Silonga BH 2.Water Months 3 4 Months 90 - 3.Spring 3 - 4 Months 4 5 Months 70 - 80 Agro - Pastoral 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable 2. Water 3 4 Months 3 4 Months 95 - Over 6 70 - 80 Distance to Water Sources The average return trekking distances to domestic water sources were slightly below normal at 3- 4.5 km in pastoral and 3-3.5 km in agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 3.5 5.5 kms. The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5Km in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones due adequate water availability as result of good rainfall performance. Waiting Time at the Source The current water status is projected to be stable in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal season last year. The waiting time at the source in mixed farming livelihood zone is between 2-3 minutes which is slightly below normal while in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas it was between 2-4 minutes which is below normal. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free. The water vendors sold water depending on the distances covered but on average it was sold at Ksh 20 per 20 litres jerican. Water consumption per person per day was slightly above normal at 25 30 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20-25 litres in agro pastoral and pastoral zone compared to normal (Table 12). This was attributed to adequate water availability across all livelihood zones. Table 13: Return Distances to Water Sources, Cost of Water, Waiting time and Consumption Springs 4Months months Mixed Farming 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Springs Over 6 Months Over 6 Months 80 - 90 3.Rivers Over 6 Months Months 90 - 95 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months Over 6 months 95 -100 2.Shallo w Wells 4months Over 6 months stable Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Over 3 Months stable Ward livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5 - 6 3 4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Agro Pastoral 3.5 5.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Mixed Farming 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 15 - 20 25 - 30 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 25 - 30 3.2.5. Food Consumption According to the NDMA bulletin, 2.8 percent of the households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 7). The proportion households borderline consumption was 31.7 in pastoral, 13.3 in fishing and 3.3 in agro pastoral livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 1.9, 23 and 75.1 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones was stable as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 3.2.6. Coping strategy The average coping strategy index was 13.88 a decrease compared to last month at 14.22 (Figure 8). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.2 followed by pastoral at 14.3. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4. The decrease in the coping strategies was due to availability of food at households level across all livelihood zones 3.3. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria have shown a declining trend in 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five. While in general population there is a decline in diarrhoea. As illustrated in Figure 9 the three most common diseases for under five children, Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria have shown a declining trend in Figure 7: Food Consumption Score Figure 8: Coping Strategy Score Figure 9: Morbidity for under five (5yrs) 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five, while the diarrhea cases have increased. Figure 10 shows malaria increase by 56 percent down from 2,980 cases in December 2019 to 6,775 cases in January 2020 among the general population. The increase may be attributed to enhanced rainfall performance which created a conducive environment for breeding of mosquitoes. 3.3.2. Immunization Coverage and Vitamin A supplementation average county immunization coverage between July and December 2019 increased to 63.1percent, up from 60.1 percent same period in 2018. The current coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to increase in integrated outreaches improvement in increase in immunizing sites in the county. Vitamin A supplementation for the county between June and December 2019 indicated an increase. Four out of seven sub counties achieved percentage of the national target of 80 percent as shown in Figure 11. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of Early Childhood Development (ECD) and Community Health Units in Baringo Central (89), Baringo north (92.9), Mogotio (85.6) sub counties. 3.3.3. Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity The nutrition status of the children under five years of age had marginally improved with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 20 percent, as compared to the previous month at 21 percent (Fig 12). However, the upsurge of malaria cases in irrigated livelihood zone, Komolion, Ribko and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones saw higher rates of malnutrition. Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.8 and 23.64 respectively. Figure 10: Morbidity for General Population Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South sub counties respectively. The proportion of households using soap and water for hand washing in Tiaty sub-county was 24.7 percent while in Baringo north and Baringo south sub- counties the proportion was 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 43.6 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.14 percent (Table 13). Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. About 20 30 percent of households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Kapkuikui, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaani reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of inadequate toilet coverage and low levels of personal hygiene. Table 14: Latrine coverage Sub County Latrine coverage Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Pokot Tiaty East Baringo County Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 15: Food Security Indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, February, 2020 Long rains assessment, July, 2019 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral Fair-Good Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Good -Fair Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day Agro Pastoral 20-25 Agro Pastoral 10-15 Irrigated cropping 25-30 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed Farming 25-30 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 20-25 Pastoral-all species Price of maize (per kg) Ksh 55kg Distance to grazing Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral 1-2km Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farmin Mixed Farmin 1 km Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species 3-4km Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13.9 Agropastoral-23.2 Pastoral-14.3 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-27 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-4. Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline 3.4. Education 3.5.1. Enrolment There was an increase of three, five and 10 percent in enrolment in ECDE, Primary and Secondary levels respectively at end of January Term I within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out in term 1. Secondary schools enrolment increased due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and 100 percent transition policy. Table 16: Enrolment Term 111 2019 Term I 2020 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 25,352 24,282 Primary Secondary 3.5.2. Participation The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECDE centres increased in Term I 2020 compared to term III 2019 because of timely disbursement of Home Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) funds to primary schools. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys. 3.5.3. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school due to delays in delivery of food. 3.5.4. School Meals Programme A total of 260 public primary schools with 62,150 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMPLRPNON LRP); 115 schools with 20,315 pupils are under Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in Table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This Programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 17: School Meals Program 4. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions According to the meteorological department, the long rains season of March-April- May will be above normal with an early onset. Forage conditions are expected to remain good due to the above normal rains that were received in the short rains season. The off season rains will ensure that the forage conditions will be good up to the next season. Livestock prices will remain relatively above normal due to good body condition. Milk production will remain above normal up to the nest rainfall season. There will be minimal livestock disease outbreak with minimal impacts on markets. According to NDMA bulletin, cereal prices will decline marginally but remain stable as the harvested crops starts entering markets. The water situation will remain good. Return distances from water points will remain below normal while waiting time at water source will be shorter compared to the previous normal seasons. Sub Counties No. Of Schools HGSMPLRPNON Total No. of Beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Baringo Central 3,392 3,340 3,392 3,340 Mogotio 14,280 13,913 14,280 1,3913 Marigat 6,610 6,415 6,610 6,415 Ravine Baringo North 6,980 7,220 6,980 7,220 Tiaty 11,209 9,106 11,209 9,106 Sub Total 31,262 30,888 11,209 9,106 42,471 39,994 Total 62,150 20,315 82,465 The normal crop calendar will remain in force with farmers planting on time for the oncoming long rains season. There will be minimal crop pest interference. Minimal cases of malaria outbreak will be reported in some pockets of the county due to prevailing above normal wet conditions. 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) Food consumption is likely to improve in the next three months. This is attributed to improving livestock productivity whereby purchasing power of households will be enhanced thus being in a position to access food. There are food stocks within the households and traders which likely to last up to the next season. Nutrition status of children under five years will improve in the next three months. This is due to improved milk production and consumption at the household level. The livestock body condition is expected to remain good and stable thus ensuring enhanced milk production. The proportion of households applying general coping strategies is expected to reduce in the next three months. This is due to adequate current food stocks held at households and traders thus there will be very minimal cases of food intake gaps Irrigated cropping livelihood zone is expected to apply non coping strategies while pastoral livelihood zone will be applying minimal stressed coping strategies. Mortality rates are expected to remain static for the next three months 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) Most households are expected to have acceptable food consumption. This is due to the expected good yield from the long rains season as well as improved livestock production and productivity. Good livestock body condition will translate to better livestock prices leading to improved purchasing power mostly for pastoral households. Nutrition status will be normal. Cases of malnutrition are expected to be very minimal as milk production and consumption will be normal to above normal. Majority of the households across all livelihood zones are expected to apply non coping strategies in accessing food. Mortality rates are expected to slightly decline 5. CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1. Conclusions 5.1.1. Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase two (Stressed). The irrigated agriculture, agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase one (IPC phase 1) while the pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC phase 2 (Stressed). 5.1.2. Summary of Findings The performance of the short rains season was above normal compared to the previous seasons. The onset of the season was early while both spatial and temporal distributions were good. The county also encountered off season rains in January. Forage conditions were above normal, resulting in improved livestock body condition. There was improved livestock productivity in terms of body condition and milk production. Livestock disease outbreak was minimal with foot and mouth outbreak being reported in Baringo North Sub County. Acreage under maize declined compared to long term average in rain fed agriculture, leading to 67 percent decline in normal crop harvest. The county had sufficient maize stocks with households having stocks that were above long term averages. Water situation was above normal compared to long term means across the livelihood zones. Return trekking distances and waiting time were less than normal. The water sources are likely to last longer than usual. Nearly all the open water sources were recharged to their full capacity. Water consumption per person per day was above normal across all the livelihood zones. Markets were functional and were well stocked with food and non-food commodities. Barwessa market in Baringo North Sub County was closed due to quarantine measures. Livestock prices remained above long term averages while on the other hand, cereals particularly maize exhibited a declining trend. Terms of trade were favorable, translating to higher purchasing power especially for pastoral households. School enrolment and participation improved in term 1 compared to the previous term across all the levels of learning. Majority of the households had acceptable food consumption across all the livelihoods. Household employed normal coping strategies in accessing food. There was an upsurge of malaria cases mostly in Tiaty Sub County, a factor that affected food utilization especially for children. Latrine coverage was reported to be very low in the pastoral areas compared to the national average. 5.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 18: Sub County ranking Sub County Food Security Rank (Worst to Best) (1-10) Main food security threat (if any) Tiaty Foot and mouth, LSD, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, insecurity tension, locust invasion, market interruption Baringo South Floods, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, malnutrition, insecurity Baringo North Foot and mouth disease, malaria upsurge, quarantine Mogotio Minimal malnutrition cases, floods, foot and mouth Baringo Central Eldama Ravine 5.2. Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1. Food interventions There is no general food distribution program in the county. However, several schools in the county are benefitting from school feeding program. 5.2.2. Non-Food Interventions Table 19: Nonfood interventions Intervention Specific location Number of beneficiaries Implementation timeframe Implementation stakeholders Female HEALTH SECTOR Vitamin A supplementation health facilities, selected 2,200,000 47,200 47,545 Routine MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK Afya uzazi Supplementation health facilities 867,000 37,000 38,000 Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 231,000,000 Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and WFP Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods health facilities communi ty units 52,600 54,892 County department of health supported by Afya uzazi Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Deworming health facilities 33,683 Food Fortification Blanket supplementary feeding County department of health supported Cash transfer WVKWFP National government Food Aid National government Outreaches County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Mass screening County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Health education, passing of health messages County department of health services, AGRICULTURE Creation of productive assets by households- Especially Farm ponds 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National Government and County Government of Baringo, Development partners Post-Harvest Practices(Inputs supply and construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine ALL(Pro vided Hermetic bags) Cereal stores build at Bartolim o and Kewango 8.5 Million 2019-2020 County Government Soil Fertility management 0.6 M 2017-2019 Baringo County Government- Agriculture Nutrition and Food Utilization initiatives 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo County Government- Agriculture LIVESTOCK SECTOR Livestock upgrading Baringo North 500HH Jun2019- onwards Commercial off- 16.5M 1,200 Dec 2019 Provision of pasture seeds 500Kg Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio, 200HH Aug,2019-Oct, MOALF, Of NFIs to youth groups 500HH 300HH Jul,2019-Jan, Partners Provision of beehives Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Mogotio Baringo Central 3,000HH July 2019-Oct Vaccination against PPR,Rabies and Baringo Central Baringo North 2000HH August 2019 BCG RPLRP Funding of farmer groups(C.I.Gs) ERavine Baringo Central Mogotio Baringo South 500HH Jul,2019- Jan,2020 BCG KSCAP Disease surveillance 50,000TLU Jul, 2019- Jan,2020 Capacity building of Farmers counties 1,000HH Throughout BCG(MOALF) Partners WATER SECTOR General water supply and BHs rehabilitation Commun 380HH On going BCG, NG, Construction of New water Projects Whole County 1560HH 1year BCG, NG, Drilling and Whole 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, Equipping Strategic 10 No. County Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Whole County 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1. Non- Food Interventions countyWar Intervention Number of beneficiari Proposed implementer Required resources Available resources frame HEALTH SECTOR Mass screening 80 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 1,500,000 150,000 April East Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat mogotio Integrated medical outreaches 40 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 5,000,000 1,600,000 April May,Jun Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, 3,000,000 1,000,000 Passing health and nutrition messages to the community 57 CUs County department of health 4,000,000 1,200,000 April services, BBC midia action All IMAM implementin g health facilities Strengthen LMIS reporting and request 100 health facilities County department of health services, 900,000 April Tiaty East, East Pokot, Marigat, Baringo, North, Mogotio and Baringo central Agri-Nutrition 57 Cus County nt of health services, media action 10,000,00 2,00,000 community units Sensitize CHEWS and CHVs on nutrition technical module 57 Cus County nt of health services, 1,500,000 Selected health facilities (40) all over the county Implement IMAM surge 40 health facilites County nt of health services, , WVK 6,000,000 1,500,00 Selected Implement BFCI 30 health facilites County nt of health services, , WVK, uzazi 4,000,000 County Purchase and distribute fridge to new health facilities 25 Health facilities County nt of health services,, Uzazi 3,000,000 500,000 WATER SECTOR Community Water Supplies in pastoral and 18 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and 2,480HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, months pastoral livelihood replacement of pumping units USAID, Institutions Communitie s in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Zones Roof Water harvesting structures Institutions BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, months Community WS in Pastoral and pastoral Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 20 No. community water supplies 1,260 HHs areas BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 600,000 months Water supplies in Pastoral and Pastoral Zones Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection 30 No. Community Water supplies BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, months pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc 3,000HHs BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, Months Whole County Water Governance and Management Policy development Baringo County Water Resources Users BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP Months pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Drilling and Equipping of strategic 12 No. BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas 1500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Construction and Upgrading of 16 No. potential Low Cost Water Supplies 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs pastoral and Construction of 4 2400HH BCG, NG, 1 -5Yrs agro pastoral Zones No. Small dams for domestic and irrigation water use RCS, WV, UNCEF, pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Capacity Strengthening on Wash Water ManagementResour ces Mobilization Conflict Resolution and Management and Catchment protection 50 No. Water Supplies BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs LIVESTOCK SECTOR -BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty(FMD) Tiaty, BNorth(LS -Vaccination against, FMD, LSD -Disease surveillance Countywid National government Development partners Feb,202 0-June, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Mogotio Reseeding of pasture 500HH RPLRP Partners April 2020 to Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo - South Mogotio Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,201 county Hay harvesting and baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Dec,202 AGRICULTURE SECTOR Inputs provision including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County Government development partners Finances (Kshs 10 million) Staff Enhance asset creation for National Government, County Finances (Kshs Staff households especially Farmponds and water pans for production Government development partners Million) Enhance irrigated Agriculture conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes Irrigation schemes National Government, County Government development partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers to Schools and other institutions of Learning for Learning income generation and food and Nutrition security All Schools with farms Ministry of Education, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, County Government development partners Finances Million) Staff, Availabilit y of well fenced farms, Support of Extension through digifarm platform for Projects monitoring, effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages Communicati on companies, County Government Development partners Kshs 15 Million Staff",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), January 2022 The 2022 short rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2022. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October and characterized by uneven spatial distribution and poor temporal distribution. The cessation was normal in the third dekad of December. Insecurity tension resulting from competition for pastures and water was reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while endemic livestock diseases were reported across the county. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture and its projected yield were below the long-term average (LTA) while projected yield and acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA for beans, green grams and maize but less for tomatoes and water melons. Household maize stocks were below LTA by 31 percent. Forage conditions and livestock body condition for cattle were poor in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones. Milk production, consumption and prices were above LTA across all livelihood zones. Unusual livestock migrations were observed in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones triggering insecurity tensions. Market operations were normal though some were interrupted by insecurity incidents during the season under review. Livestock prices were below LTA while cereal prices were above LTA. Terms of trade were very poor with the Pastoral zone being the most affected. Water access and availability was poor as shown by increasing trekking distances to watering points, reduced water volumes, increased waiting time and reduced water discharge from boreholes. Household water consumption per person per day was below LTA across all livelihood zones and the water cost was above LTA across the county. Water quality is deteriorating at watering points due to congestion. The average county food consumption (FCS) score was Borderline at 35.2 with the Pastoral zone having the highest proportions of households with borderline and poor FCS of 50 and 19.2 percent respectively. The Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest coping strategy index (CSI) at 25.2 and 17.5 respectively. Tiaty sub county had the lowest latrine coverage and highest open defecation in the county while 70 percent of households in the county wash their hands at four critical times a day. There was a marginal decline in school enrolment for all levels of learning in term three compared to term two. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase three (Crisis) whereby Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones were in IPC phase three while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone was in IPC phase two (Borderline). The Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones were in IPC phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... ii 3.1.1 Crops production ............................................................................................................ 5 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock production ...................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4 Impact on availability ................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Market operations ......................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Market prices ................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Income sources ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.5 Water access and availability ....................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Food consumption ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2.7 Coping Strategy ............................................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .................................................................................. 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ............................................................ 21 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity............................................................................ 22 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene.................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Access ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.2 School feeding program ................................................................................................ 27 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity ................................................................. 29 5.1.1 Phase classification ....................................................................................................... 33 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................... 33 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ...................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 34 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 35 5.3.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 39 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 40 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 short rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2022 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 9th -27th January 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. Mixed Farming Marginal Mixed Farming Figure 1: Population by livelihoods This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal as it was observed during the first dekad of October. In the low land areas that comprises mostly Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, the amounts received were depressed, ranging from 51-75 and 76-90 percent of normal rains respectively. In the high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone, amounts received ranged from normal to slightly above normal (91-125 percent of normal). Rainfall distribution was extremely poor both in space and time. The peak of the season was observed during the first dekad of October and the second dekad of November. Cummulatively, the season had about three to five wet days, mostly in the highlands while spatial distribution was very poor as the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas hardly received any rains during the season under review. The cesation of the season was observed in the third dekad of December which was normal. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity incidents happening within the neighboring counties of Elgeyo Marakwet along the Kerio valley and Laikipia have been spilling over into Baringo, causing some tension. The affected areas are Tiaty West sub county and Arabal area in Baringo South Sub County. There have been some tension in Saimo Soi ward caused by migration of Pastoral communities in search of pasture and water. Local mechanisms such as peace meetings in Saimo soi and kerio valley and deployment of Kenya Police Reservist officers in Arabal have been put in place to forestall skirmishes among various communities that may arise due to competition for the scarce pastures and water resources. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High food commodity prices Food prices continued to be very high during the season under review. Most of the commodities including maize, beans and other pulses had their prices increasing by over 90 percent of their short term average and consequently affecting terms of trade. High farm input prices Prices of farm inputs were very high compared to the previous seasons thus making them unaffordable to the majority of farmers, a factor that contributed to reduced production. Figure 2: Rainfall performance Hazards Livestock diseases Sporadic cases of livestock diseases were observed across the livelihood zones and included lumpy skin disease, CCPP, foot and mouth, among others. Most of the cases were being reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The short rains in Baringo County play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and help to recharge water sources for irrigation. However, for the past four seasons, the County has received below-average rainy seasons (both long and short seasons), which has impacted negatively on crop production. The short rains of 2022 were below the long-term average and this coupled with high temperatures affected recharge of water sources for irrigation and the acreage under crop production. Although onset of short rains was normal, the distribution over space and time was very poor. The lack of rainfall has also led to reduced water levels in surface water sources, particularly in rivers used for irrigation. Some rivers have dried up completely and water pans are at less than 15 percent capacity. Crop production is a significant contributor of income and food in the county as shown by table Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Income Agro-Pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture The County received below-normal rains during the short rains season which could not support the proper growth of the crops. Due to delayed harvesting of the crop that was planted during the long rains season, many famers did not have enough time to till their land hence resulting in reduced acreage for rain fed crops. The crops in the fields were also affected adversely by the depressed rainfall season, resulting in reduced crop yield as shown in table two. Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2022 Short rains season (Ha) Long-term average (5 year) area planted during the short rains season (Ha) 2022 short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long term average production (5 year) during the short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,520 8,049 Beans 1,462 3,043 12,795 37,275 Irish Potato 1,630 2,234 20,280 32,330 The main crops planted during the 2022 short rains were maize, beans and Irish potatoes. The area planted for maize during the season under review was 37 percent of the long-term average (LTA) and its expected yield is 19 percent of the LTA. Similarly, for beans, the area planted during the season was 48 percent of the LTA and its projected production was expected to be 35 percent of LTA. However, for Irish potato, the area planted during the season was 73 percent of LTA and the projected production is 63 percent of the LTA. In conclusion the farmers will not have any significant harvest if the current hot temperatures continue. Irrigated crop production The area planted for beans, green grams and maize was higher than LTA while the acreage put under tomatoes and water melons was less than the LTA during the season under review (Table 3). The projected production was expected to be less than LTA except for beans and this was caused by reduced river flows which serves as a source of water for irrigation. Table 3: Irrigated Agriculture Area planted during the 2022 short rains season (ha) Long-term average (3 years) area planted during short rains season (ha) 2022 short rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) ProjectedActual Long-term average production (3 years) during short rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Beans Tomatoes Water Mellon Green Grams Maize The area planted for beans and Maize during the 2022 short rains season is 304 percent and 161 percent more than the LTA respectively while their projected yield was expected to be 119 and 120 percent of the LTA respectively. For Tomatoes, the area planted during the season was 92.3 percent of the LTA while the projected yield is 74 percent of LTA if the irrigation water is sustained. For watermelon, the area planted during the season was 63 percent of the LTA and the production was estimated to be 85 percent of the LTA. For Green Grams, the area planted during the season was 153 percent of LTA while the projected production is 112 percent of LTA and this was caused by the fact that most of the farmers planted the crop as a cash crop for income. The early planted crop has been harvested while those planted late were affected by reduced water levels in the rivers. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4 below indicates the stocks of different commodities (maize, rice, sorghum, and green gram) held by different groups in Baringo County. The groups include farmers, traders, millers, food assistance, and the National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB). The data also provides the current stocks and the stocks held in the long term average (LTA) for comparison. The variation in stocks held at each level was due to a combination of factors including changes in demand, supply, prices, and reduced production. Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize (Bags) Rice ( Kg ) Sorghum (Bags) Green gram (Bags) Current Current Current Current Farmers 428,677 628,340 2,294 2,518 Traders 86,151 73,879 23,420 20,000 Millers 29,436 13,602 Assistance 13,000 8,000 2,115 Total 544,634 716,471 36,780 28,350 2,794 2,920 Households: The stocks of maize held by farmers are 428,677 bags, which is 31 percent lower than the LTA of 628,340 bags this stocks are a carry-over from the previous season. However, farmers do not have any stocks of rice as the crop was not planted in the irrigation scheme. Sorghum stocks were below LTA while green grams stocks were above LTA. The reason for the reduced stocks especially of maize was because of poor harvests of the long rains, High cost of farm inputs and also farmers selling the crops to traders and millers. The stocks with the households are skewed with Eldama Ravine having 64 percent of the total stocks held by households. Traders: The stocks of maize held by traders are 86,151 bags, which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 73,879 bags. Traders also have 23,420 kgs of rice which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 20,000 kgs, 490 bags of sorghum which is 23 percent higher than the LTA of 396 bags and 150 bags of green gram which is 42 percent lower than the LTA of 260 bags. The traders are holding more stocks of maize and rice due to anticipation of higher demand in the market and also to take advantage of high prices. Millers: The stocks of maize held by millers are 29,436 bags, which is 117 percent higher than the LTA of 13,602 bags. However, millers do not have any stocks of rice and green gram but negligible quantity of sorghum. The high stocks held by millers may be due to an increase in price for maize flour hence more households consuming sorghum flour. NCPB: The National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB) does not have any stocks of maize, sorghum, and green gram but negligible amount of rice (2,115 Kgs). This could be due to a lack of surplus crops being sold to the NCPB and change of Government policy. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones there are no stocks. In the Irrigated livelihood zones the stocks can last one and half months. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The county is known to be long rains dependent for livestock production but the short rains are very important for complementing production of fodder and pastures (hay) for livestock as well as recharge of most water sources. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pasture and browse conditions The present forage condition is fair in both Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to poor in both Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zones. The condition is attributed to below normal OND rains. Both quality and quantity of forage is below normal, attributed to under- performance of both long and short rains of 2022. The pastures are expected to last for two months in Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and less than one month in Agro-pastoral zone while for Pastoral areas, there are no pastures currently (Table 6). The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus and the most affected areas were Tiaty East, Tiaty West and parts of Baringo South sub counties. Cactus is a very important plant and can be utilized by farmers as forage if prepared properly. The sector is advised to enhance capacity strengthening to the communities on maintenance and utilization of Prosopis species and cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica). The invasive species may have adverse effects to pasture and browse as they are smothering the growth of pasture species that are palatable to livestock. Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions around Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Arabal and Kapedo and Kerio Valley areas. Table 6: Forage conditions d Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Mixed farming No limit to fair No limit Irrigated cropping No limit to fair No limit Fair to No limit No limit tensions Fair to tensions Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture growth (Table 7). The stocks that were carried over from the previous seasons were also depleted and currently the county depends on supplies from the neighboring counties such as Nakuru. The existing stocks are being held by the farmers and their current prices are above the normal prices due to the high demand for feed supplementation, a factor that is limiting their utilization as many farmers cant afford them. Currently there are no significant crop residues for feeding livestock as many farmers did not bother to attempt to plant due to unfavorable season. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feeds county No. of Hay Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per bale (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 7,500 12-15 100 held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 12-15 100 held by farmers ERavine 605,000 100,000 100 held by farmers Tiaty Free grazing area Baringo North 280,000 3,400 12-15 100 held by farmers Mogotio 127,000 10,000 12-15 200-350 100 held by farmers Livestock body condition The deterioration in livestock body condition was brought about by worsening of quality of forage and increase of trekking distances to watering points following poor performance of both the long and short rain seasons of 2022. Furthermore, the county was unable to realize any crop residues that would have complemented livestock feeding. The deterioration in livestock body condition is expected to continue for the next three months as forage resources get depleted. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Compared to the last assessment, TLUs of poor income households declined from 4.0 to 3.6 while medium income households had stable TLUs. However, the TLUs for both categories were above LTA. The decline in TLUs was attributed by the low livestock birth rates due to underperformance of rains. Milk production and consumption Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming BCS 4- Irrigated cropping BCS 2 BCS3- (NB: BCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good) Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average Table 8: Milk production, consumption and price Milk production and consumption declined across the livelihood zones compared to the last assessment and was below LTA (Table 8). The decrease was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition caused by poor forage quality and quantity as well as increasing distances to watering points. The prevailing high temperatures also affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. Milk prices remained above LTA with the highest prices being observed in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh 90 per litre. The high prices were as a result of the low supply of milk occasioned by poor milk production. Livestock migration The migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of water sources and insecurity tensions. Livestock animals are being driven from Laikipia nature conservancy towards Lake Baringo and Arabal. Other animals were moving from Tiaty areas towards Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. As a result of these migrations, insecurity tensions were reported in Loruk, Kalabata and Kinyach sub-locations. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or depleted while other migrations were triggered by insecurity. Local conflict resolution mechanisms are being deployed by the relevant authorities in order to prevent escalations. Migratory routes included Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo, Lake Baringo, Solai- Laikipia-Kiptoim-Esageri-Koibatek forest, Mukutani-Rugus and along Lake Baringo shores, Sandai-Chebinyiny-Upper Mochongoi, Loboi-Emsos; Sandai-Kapkuikui, Loboi to Wildlife conservancies, Churo-Laikipia ranches; Churo-Tangulbei-Lake Baringo area, KolloaTirioko- West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin, Silale-Malaso-Turkana border, Kasarani and Tangulbei-Laikipia MochongoiBeyong Malaso(MoruakirinMarti) Projected migration: Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next one month. Internal migrations are also expected to increase in intensity: Areas to watch- Saimo Soi, Lake Baringo areas, Arabal. Livestock diseases and mortalities Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping pastoral 0.5-1 There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-county though there were normal incidents as shown in Table 9. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. Table 9: Livestock diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken (Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Lowlands Cattle Tiaty All wards Goats reported Planned vaccinations by communities PPR, LSD Ribkwo, Churo No report Not vaccinated Eldama Ravine Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination reported Baringo South Goat and sheep Losampurpur Goats and sheep 3 deaths No vaccination done Nyimbei Goats No vaccination done Heart water Bekibon Goats No vaccination done Marigat, Kimoriot cattle No deaths No vaccination done Mange Kapkuikui Goats No deaths No vaccination done Kapkuikui No deaths No vaccination done Baringo North County-wise (Endemic) Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated Barwessa, Shoats Plans initiated for vaccinations Rabies All wards No deaths 100 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 150 vaccinated Helminths Saimo soi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 8,200 livestock dewormed Mogotio Mogotio Cattle reported No vaccinations Water for livestock Table 10: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average distances (Km) Expected duration to Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs, bore holes Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, traditional river wells Streams, water pans, Boreholes 3 weeks 3 months Bore-holes, water pans, traditional river wells Water-pans, Bore- holes, rivers 2 weeks 3 months The average return distances for livestock from watering points to grazing fields increased significantly across all livelihoods and was above the LTA. The Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest trekking distance of 7-15 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distances. The increase in distances was caused by drying up of water pans, and high temperatures that are causing rapid evaporation. Variations in water sources and trekking distance were due to low recharge levels and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels were at 0-30, which was not normal. Watering frequency Table 11: Watering frequency Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Watering frequency declined in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones due to the continued water shortages being experienced in the area following poor performance of the short rains season (Table 11). 3.1.4 Impact on availability The short rains season is normally relied on for complementing food availability in the county through recharge of rivers for irrigation water, water for livestock and humans, enhancing pasture and browse growth as well as supporting limited rain fed crops. The season under review performed dismally, affecting both livestock and crop productivity hence leading to further decline in availability of food stocks and milk. Households are there experiencing shortages in food availability, forcing them to shift to purchasing of food from the local markets at very high prices. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, Kinyach, and Kalabata Markets were disrupted by insecurity but not closed. The markets are operational but the prices remained low for the livestock and high for food items. The markets were less vibrant compared to December 2022 whereby there were less animals and market players which was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition and low demand for livestock. Most of the cereals and vegetables on sale in Mixed and Marginal zones were being sourced from within (Ravine, Baringo Central) with some coming from outside the county. In Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones between 85-95 percent are dependent on markets. 3.2.2 Market prices Maize prices Figure 3. Maize Prices The average price of a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh. 90, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a kilogram was retailing at Ksh 87kg (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 94 percent. The high maize prices were attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations coupled by increased cost of transportation driven by Price (Ksh. kg) high fuel prices has also affected the market prices across livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. Goat prices There was a drop of seven percent in the average price of a goat which was at Ksh 2,446 per head, in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 2,635 (Figure 4). The lowest price was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,200 while Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,490 and Ksh 3,000 respectively. The decrease in market prices was influenced by the worsening drought conditions in the county that is affecting the livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 27, implying that a sale of one goat was fetching 27kg of maize which was a decrease of 21 percent in relation to the previous month of December (Figure 5) and this could be attributed to improved livestock prices during the month under review. However, the current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 55 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 36 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24. The continued deterioration of livestock body condition is likely to impact negatively on livestock prices, a factor that will further worsen terms of trade and therefore eroding the purchasing power Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2.4 Income sources Table 12: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 12. However, income earned from sale of livestock declined this season due to depressed livestock market prices following the deterioration of livestock body condition. In the Irrigated cropping zone, sales from tomato crops declined following a market glut. 3.2.5 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Traditional River wells, Boreholes, lakes and water pans, (Figure 8). Generally, in the Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zone. By January, the recharge level of most water pans was 0-30 percent of their normal capacity in the pastoral livelihood zones compared to 70-80 percent normally. However, some area such as Tirioko ward, some pans never recharged due to poor distribution of the rains. The available water is likely to last less than a month as compared to 2-3 months normally. In the Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones the recharge was average at 60-80 percent of normal as compared to 100 percent typically and the water is expected to last 1-2 months. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones 80 of the water pans have dried up e.g Chepkalacha, kokwototo, chemoril among others, the remaining have 20-30 percent of the normal capacity such as Tangulbei, Loyeya, Tlingwo, Pombo, Orus etc. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers, traditional river wells in all livelihood zones are below the normal seasonal levels and expected to continue reducing due to high temperatures, high level of utilization and siltation. The level of water in the main rivers are as follows; River Perkerra 20 -340 percent, River kerio 20-30 percent and River Molo River 15 20 percent. Currently, 70 percent of the boreholes are operational in across all livelihood zones (Table 13); however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns example belatiat radat bebogoi bh,KirimBH, Sambaka,Tinomoi,TebeiKatikamuma,Kamakonge,Kapindasum,Bartalo,nasrot,seretion,chesawac h, kresee,ngoron, Loiwat, Akwichatis, Toplen, Sibilo across the county . Table 13:Status of water sources Ward d zone Water Source (Three major sources No. of Opera tional No. of Current Operatio Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Over 6 Months months stable belatiat bh, radat ws bebogoi , bh, Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, Katikamuma,Kamakon Kapindasum, Bartalo,nasrot,seretion, chesawach,kreze,ngoro n,loiwat,akwichatis,topl en,sibilo Water 2weeks-1 month Months 10-15 Rivers 2weeks-1 month Months 10-20 pastoral Holes Over 6 Months months stable Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, , Water 1-2 Months Months 15-20 Rivers 1-2 Months 2Months 10 - 20 Mixed Farming Holes Over 6 Months months stable Springs Over 6 Months Months stable Rivers 1-2Months Months 30 - 40 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 1 -2 Months months 20 -30 weseges, river,Endao river and parts of molo river Shallo w Wells Over 6 months months Reducing Discharge borehol Over 6 months Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to domestic water sources are above the normal at 4-7 km in Pastoral and 3-7 km in Agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 2 4 kms. The distances were at 1-4 Km in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones against the normal distances 0.5 -2Km this was due to drying up of most of the open water sources as result of poor rainfall performance. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa the households are covering the highest distances of 7-10Km. this is due to non-functioning of the available boreholes. Waiting at the Time Source The current waiting time at the water source in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones was 20 120 minutes and 20-60 minutes as compared to the normal of 10-20 and 10-15minutes respectively. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 10-30 minutes which is above the normal of 5-10 minutes. The situation is attributed to congestion, low discharge from boreholes and low water volumes at surface sources. The situation is anticipated to worsen due to the ongoing drought spell. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally high across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free (Table 14). Water price at source in all livelihood zones was Ksh.5-10 against the usual Ksh 3-5. However, the price of water by vendors depends on the distances covered; on average it is at Ksh 20-100 per 20 litres jerrican. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa 60-70 percent are relying on water vendors. The cost per 20 litre jerrican is between Ksh. 50-100 from the normal of Ksh. 20 due to long distances to water sources and increased fuel prices. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zone ,10-15 and 5-10 litres per person per day in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral zone respectively compared to normal of 20-25 and 15-20 litres per person per day. This was attributed to scarcity water across all livelihood zones. Table 14: Water distance, cost and consumption Ward livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3 - 4 4 7 3 - 5 10-20 20-60 15-20 2 4 3 - 5 10-15 20-45 15-20 10-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 2 3 5 10-30 20 - 25 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 2 3 - 5 3 - 5 10-30 20 - 25 15 - 20 There was unusual high concentration at the following water points in the county; Kanguria ,kwichatis Wells,NaudoBH ,Chemeri BH,Tangulbei BH, Muiya, Noiywet BH,Nguberet BH,Kiptoim BH,Koitebes WS,Lelen BH,Kamar BH and Magoi, Kisanana BH,Olkokwe,Kamasai and Oldebes BH, Silonga BH, Chemorongion BH and Sirata BH, Ngoswonin and telan 3.2.6 Food consumption Figure 4: Food consumption score The proportion of sampled households that did not have acceptable food consumption score (FCS) has been rising steadily during the period under review for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6). In October, the proportion of households without acceptable FCS in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones was 50 and 30 percent respectively which rose to 69 and 20 percent respectively by January. About 19 percent of the households in the Pastoral zone have poor FCS by January and are likely to rise up due to the prevailing food consumption gaps. 3.2.7 Coping Strategy Coping strategy index Food Consumption Score Acceptable Borderline Households were adopting food consumption based coping strategies mostly in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones which included skipping of meals, reduced meal sizes among others. In the Pastoral zone, the CSI has marginally increased from 16 in October to 17 by January, an indication that households are applying more coping strategies in response to the deteriorating food security situation at the household level. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone has been employing the highest coping strategies over the season under review. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity in under five children Figure 5: Under 5 morbidity Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in Baringo county (Figure 8). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2021 was higher compared to the other years same period. This year 2022 recorded a slightly lower morbidity compared to 2021 among under five population. Irrigated Agro pastoral Under five Morbidity 2018 - 2022 Morbidity for General Population Figure 6: Morbidity in general population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload in but the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases of upper respiratory infection could be attributed to low immunity due to deteriorating nutrition situation 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Immunization Figure 7: Immunization coverage Routine data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2022 was above the national target of 80 percent (Figure 10). As compared to Oct- December 2021 same period, all antigens were above except OPV 3 which was below coverage in the same period 2021 and 2022, this was attributed to support of more outreaches in 2022. Opv 1 OPV 3 Measles Rubella 1 Imunization Coverge General population morbidity 2018-2 022 Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation for children aged 6-59 months for July Dec 2022 was at 80.7 percent, which was almost at per with the national of 80 percent (Figure 11). When compared to the same period in 2021 against the national target (73.3), the coverage was lower than the nation target 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity Figure 9: OTP OTP PROGRAM OUT-PATIENT FEEDING OTP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY YEARS Vitamin A supplentation 2021 -2022 12 to 59 6 to 59 Figure 8: Vitamin A coverage Figure 10: SFP Figure 12 and 13 shows that children attending OTP and SFP seems to increase in the year 2022, as compared to the same period 2021. This increase could be attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at the household level. Also it can be noted that both SFP and OTP have steadily increased in the months October and November due to increase in the number of outreaches. Figure 11: Underweight SFP PROGRAMS SUPPLEMENTARY FEEDING (SFP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY Years UNDERWIGHT TRENS 2028-2022 LTA (5-yr average) The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight are above the long term average (Figure 14), this could be attributed to the decline in nutrition status due to the decrease availability of milk at household level and increase of food prices such as milk and other commonly bought foodstuff. This has led to household reducing the number of meals per day as a form of coping strategy. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Sanitation and hygiene percent of the household wash hands critical time and out of these, percent wash hands water while 51.6 percent wash hands with water only. Figure 15 shows an improvement in hand washing practices in 2022 compared with 2021; this could be attributed to intervention put in place during COVID 19 intervention period. Latrine coverage Table 15: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine coverage July Dec 2022 Coverage July to December 2021 Coverage Open defecation (bushes) Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio 50 Baringo North Tiaty West 38.8 48.8 22.6 51.6 Hand Washing Hand washing with soap Hand washing with water Figure 12: Hand washing practices Tiaty East 91.43 Tiaty sub counties has the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County (Table 15) and this was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high cases of water related diseases Nutrition status by MUAC The proportion of children (6-59 months) who were at risk of malnutrition according to the Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) was above the long-term average; this follow the same trend as for the underweight (Figure 15) and this could also be attributed to the deteriorating food security situation that include poor availability of milk and decreased number of meals per day as noted during the transect drive 3.4 Food security trends Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec at risk (MUAC135mm) Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2023 Long rains assessment, July, 2022 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) pastoral Agro-pastoral Fair-Good Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Farming Good-Fair Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption (litres per person per day pastoral 10-15 Agro-pastoral 10-15 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Irrigated cropping 15-20 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access Enrolment Table 16: Enrolment Term II 2022 Term III 2022 Enrollment Girls Total Girls Total 25,161 25,801 50,962 25,084 25,267 50,351 Primary 75,104 69,963 145,067 74,954 69,710 144,664 Secondary 25,798 25,513 51,311 25,773 25,481 51,254 The slight drop in enrollment in third term for ECD and primary schools is attributed to some factors like; delay in school feeding program supported by the county government, ministry of education and pupils transferring to other schools (Table 16). For secondary schools the change was attributed basically to transfers to other schools Cases of Drop outnon-attendance. Mixed Farming 15-20 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,446 2,506 Distance to grazing pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-17 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Pastoral-17.8 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline Table 17: Dropout rate Dropoutsnon- attendants Term III, 2022) Reasons for Boys Dropoutsnon-attendance in Term III Reasons for Girls Dropoutsnon-attendance in Term III Girls Total - nomadism - distant schools - lack of food, - insecurity - child labour Primary - psychological trauma - child labour - insecurity violence - Nomadism, - chronic illness - teenage pregnancy teenage Secondary - Lack of school fees - Indulgence into Boda boda business -Insecurity - Child labour - Truancy - Lack of fees - Insecurity -teenage pregnancies - early marriages - insecurity violence Several cases of school dropout were reported during the period under review and most of the students could not be traced. Several reasons behind the dropout are shown in Table 17. 3.5.2 School feeding program Table 18: School feeding program schools with school meals program Transfer CSSMP County Other types of school feeding (Please specify.) Total number ies of School Meals Programs in the county Total No. of schools withou t any school feeding progra Total number ies NOT on school meals program in the county Level Prima Secon Subtot Grand total (boys girls) 6,600 90,698 There were several types of school feeding programs but the main one was intergrated schools meals program targeting 517 schools in five sub counties, but Ravine and Baringo Central sub counties are not benefitting (Table 18). School Feeding Programs available for primary schools and Enduring the season (Term III, 2022) Table 19: School feeding program in term 3 Type of SFP Available availableInadequate Number Schools affected Number Learners affected Effect availabilitynon- availability of food on learning continuity during the term. Girls Total County ECD SMP Not available 25,267 50,351 school meals program for ECD Transfer schools available 3,200 3,400 6,600 Delay in disbursement and increase in prices In-kind School Meals Programme Yes, but delayed 97,717 Transportation of food items SCDE stores to each School -delayed disbursement -In adequate supply CommunityParents Supported SMP Not available Expanded School Meals Programme Not available PartnersWell-wisher supported SMP 2,750 2,904 5,654 reliable continuity in supply Table 19 highlights the type of feeding program available in schools during term three and the type and number of schools benefitting from it. School feeding programs were to some extent hampered by logistical challenges such as transport. Water availability in schools during the season Main sources of water in schools where; borehole, river, water pumps, bowsers, taps, water pans and harvested rain water. Table 20 shows the number of schools with access to safe and clean water and schools with functional rain water harvesting infrastructure Table 20: School water availability of schools that had access to safe water (functional source within 100m radius) of schools that had NO access to safe water (functional source within 100m radius) of schools that had functional rain water- harvesting infrastructure (gutters, tanks and taps) ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the short rains, no schools were closed temporarily, there were no reported infrastructure destroyed during the season and no schools are currently hosting IDPs Effect of the season on school health and Nutrition during the season. Table 21: Season effect on health and nutrition School category Health issues which affected children during the season Did the mentioned issues affect learning continuity How Girls Common colds, Multivitamins Common colds, Multivitamins reduced enrolment Primary Common colds Common colds Learners health improved. Multivitamins Multivitamins Secondary Common ailments Common ailments Improved health for learners Common colds were the most common during the season under review as shown in Table 21. Health and nutrition interventions Children are being dewormed and given multivitamin A at schools organized by Ministry of Health. There is also enriched school meals with vegetables and fruits. Sanitation and hygiene conditions in schools Table 22:WASH facilities in schools of schools with inadequate functional latrine (i.e. Pupil toilet Ratio- PtOR of above 1:60) of schools with inadequate or no hand- washing facilities Primary Secondary Primary Secondary A number of schools did not have adequate WASH facilities as shown in Table 22 and their net effect was as follows, spread of mild illness, students could easily contact diseases, absenteeism, learners take a lot of time queuing in washrooms and ow self-esteem. Girls received sanitary kits during the season provided by the National government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits in some other parts of the country. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particular in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions The long rains season of March to May 2023 will be near normal as per the historical trend and the PSP process Market prices will continue to be abnormal whereby cereal prices will be extremely above LTA while livestock prices will continue to depreciate. Forage conditions will continue to deteriorate further due to moisture stress especially in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones Unusual livestock migrations are expected to pick up in the next two months Livestock body condition for cattle will worsen in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral areas, and some mortalities are likely to be reported in the next two months Water access and availability will worsen, with most pans in the Pastoral areas drying up. Household stocks will remain below normal for the next six months due to crop failures witnessed in the county Resource based conflicts are likely to be observed within the known hot spots Market operations are likely to be disrupted by insecurity incidents 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six month February-March-April Most households will continue to rely on markets for food stocks as they exhaust the existing stocks following consecutive crop failures. No significant harvest particularly for maize is expected hence most households will resort to other alternative sources of food through purchases, relief food, gifts among others. The conditions of range land resources including pastures and browse will worsen significantly due to moisture stress, resulting in reduced livestock feed. This will lead to further deterioration of livestock body condition particularly in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral areas. Consequently, livestock productivity will drop including milk production and live carcass weight. Household herd size are expected to decline slightly as limited livestock mortality will be observed in some pockets of the county (Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones). Market operations are expected to remain near normal though a few will be interrupted but insecurity challenges resulting from resource-based conflict. Food prices particularly for cereals will remain above normal while livestock prices will remain below long term average, and this will lead to worsening of terms of trade hence eroding the purchasing power of Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral households. Water access and availability will continue to worsen as most of the surface- based water sources in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones will dry up, leading to an increase in trekking distances and waiting time at water source. Water consumption at the household level will continue to decline across all livelihood zones while cost of water will go up for vendors as they will have to cover more distances in fetching water. Water quality will continue to deteriorate due to congestion of both humans and livestock at the water sources, a factor that may contribute to increase of water borne diseases. Food consumption gaps will continue to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, leading to more households drifting to borderline and poor food consumption score bands. Households will be adopting crisis coping strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, borrowing among others. Malnutrition cases will spike up in the next two months due to the reduced quantity and quality of food being consumed at the household level. May-June-July The long rains of MAM are expected to bring some relief in terms of water access and availability and forage conditions. Trekking distances to watering points for both human and livestock consumption are expected to decline, hence saving time for household members which will applied to other productive economic activities. The rains will trigger pasture regeneration hence improve forage availability by July hence initiating recovery of livestock body condition. However, milk production will still be below normal as the body condition will not have fully recovered, hence milk consumption gaps will still be experienced at the household level. Household stocks will have improved marginally but still below LTA by July following an improvement in crop production as farmers will have taken advantage of the MAM rains to plant. Market operations will remain normal and stable. Cereal prices will be expected to be in a declining trend as some households will have started limited harvesting of the MAM crop. Livestock prices are expected to be on an improving trend due to the expected improvement of livestock body condition as well as holding back of animals by farmers for the purpose of fattening and restocking. Terms of trade are expected to start improving by July thus enhancing the purchasing power of the Pastoral households. Household water consumption is expected to be normal following an increase in water availability at water sources while water quality will be better as a result of reduced water contamination due to congestion at watering points. Cost of water will be normal. An improvement in food consumption is expected following improved milk availability and household stocks. Households will adopt less severe coping strategies as households are expected to have improved their food security situation. However, malnutrition status will not have changed much although positive change is expected later in the course of the year. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase three (Crisis) while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone is in phase two (Borderline). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings Even though the county had acceptable food consumption score at 49 percent, the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest proportions of households not having acceptable food consumption at 60 and 38 percent respectively by December 2022. The Pastoral zone had 44 and 16 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS. In terms of consumption based coping strategies, (rCSI). About 50 percent of the households were applying stressed coping strategies while the other 50 percent were none coping. On livelihood coping, about 5, 22, 26 and 47 percent of the sampled households in December had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 18 percent by December which was above LTA by 65 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) Poor rain Insecurity Poor pastures Malnutrition Invasive species Water shortage Livestock migration High cereal prices Baringo North Poor rain Insecurity Poor pastures Malnutrition Total crop failure Malnutrition Livestock in migration Mogotio Poor rains Crop failure Poor pastures Worsening livestock body condition Livestock in migration Water availability and access is poor High food prices Resource based conflict (water) Baringo South Poor rains Poor river recharge Conflict Poor pastures Baringo Central Poor rains Crop failure High food prices Eldama Ravine Poor rain distribution Crop failure High Food prices 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions During the season under review, the county received relief food amounting to 2,400 bags of rice (50kg), 4,320 bags of beans (50kg) and 1,200 cartons of corn oil which were distributed across the county. Some cash transfer programs are ongoing. World Food Program is targeting 2, 778 households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household is receiving Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision carried out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. The Kenya Red cross targeted 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household was receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provided cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organization is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 in three tranches. This is a one off program that is expected to last for about four months. 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions AGRICULTURE County Intervention Implementers Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo North, South, Mogotio and Tiaty restoration of livelihoods affected desert locusts Saimo Soi, Ilchamus, Kisanana and Kolowa 4,000 Emergency Desert Locust project Increase agricultur Nov- June, Post-Harvest Practices (Inputs supply and construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine (Provided Hermetic bags) Cereal stores build Bartolimo, Kewangoi and Arama County Government Reduced harvest losses especially on cereal million 2021-2023 Encouraging communities to plant high iron beans and sweet potato rich in Vitamin A (Provided with beans and sweet potato vines) for bulking County Government Improve nutritional in the vulnerable communit ies in the county. 2021-2023 LIVESTOCK Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio, Baringo Central Vaccination against PPR 800 HH BCGFAO Boost livestock Health Dec 2022 Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio Provision of Galla bucks, Sahiwal bulls Dorper groups 500 HH BCGSHAFS Improve livestock Dec 2022 All sub- counties Capacity building 1000 HH BCG(MOALF Partners Infirmed staff and Throughout Farmers and staff. farmers practices Mogotio Construction livestock feed store Mogotio 200 HH BCGDRLSP Improved pasture conservati Dec 2022 WATER Tiaty Tirioko borehole Equipping works Tirioko 120HH 2,682,227 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Sugut water supply project Piping and supply of water from sugut borehole to sugut centre Tirioko (sugut) 100HH Ongoing Tirioko Kongor borehole drilling and equipping of borehole Tirioko (kongor) Ongoing Tirioko Kasongogh borehole ngoron drilling and equipping of kasongogh borehole Tirioko (Ngoron) 140HH 2,500,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Tuwot borehole Equipping Loyamorok (Tuwot) 110HH Ongoing Tiaty Chesirimion centre Borehole works Loyamorok (chesirimio 100HH Ongoing Tiaty Adomeyon borehole solar installation, Construction of metallic water tank, cattle trough Loyamorok (Adomeyon 150HH Ongoing and water kiosk Tiaty Katele pan Construction of pan dam Silale Ongoing Tiaty boreholes, Silale 130HH Ongoing Tiaty Nasorot water Pump installation and solar panel Silale (Nasorot) 1,000,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Pkaghit water equipping, solar installation, water pump and pipeline extension Kollowa (Pkaghit) 115HH 1,800,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Kaisakat borehole drilling and equipping Kollowa (Kaisakat) 100HH 3,500,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Chepkalacha borehole drilling and equipping (kiosk, solar and tank) Tangulbei (Chepkalac 160HH Ongoing Mogotio Equipping of Ngoswe BH Mogotio 130 HH 1 year On Going Mogotio Completion Kaindaram Water Project Kisanana (Emsos) 490 HH 6 Months Ongoing Mogotio Equiping Kapchelugun Emining (Kimose) 210 HH 6 Months On going HEALTH countywi Vitamin A All health facilities, selected 82,268 supported by UNICEF, Helen Keller and child fund 2,000,000 Two time year(Malez i Bora Days) All health facilities 75,000 County department of health 800,000 Routine Selected health facilities all over county Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 107,492 County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WFP, KRC 240,000,0 6 routines Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro complementa ry Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato All health facilities community units 107,492 County department of health supported by Iron Folate ion among Pregnant Women All health facilities County department of health supported by UNICEF Routine Deworming All health facilities 33,683 Routine EDUCATION Baringo central Parents provide d water, wood, handler s and purchas utensils School meal programme in some schools Kapkelelwa -salawa - Tenges 21,791- pupils Parents Promote retention of learners in schools Termly Marigat PROVISION OF FOOD 26,895 pupils GOKMOE Increase 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Baringo north Provision of commodities 26,996 pupils Increase enrolment Continuous Mogotio Parents provided water, fuel wood, paid food handlers purchased utensils 23,030 pupils Promote retention of learners in schools Termly Tiaty School feeding program 12,388 pupils Improve termly Tiaty School feeding program 8,167 pupils County 2022 SRA Food security (Worst to best) Population Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () per sub county Wards Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () Per Ward Tiaty 153,347 (55) 84,340 Tirioko 65-75 Kolowa 40-50 Ribkwo 55-65 Silale 50-60 TangulbeiKorossi 30-40 Loiyamorok 55-65 ChuroAmaya 20-30 Baringo North 104,871 (45) 47,172 Barwessa 60-70 SaimoKipsaraman 40-50 SaimoSoi 80-90 Kabartonjo Bartabwa 50-60 Mogotio 91,104 (35) 31,887 Mogotio 15-25 Emining 45-55 Kisanana 45-55 Baringo South 90,104 (32) 28,597 (lower Mochongoi,Marigat, Mukutani, Ilchamus Mukutani 40-50 Marigat 50-60 Ilchamus 40-50 Mochongoi 30-40 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions AGRICULTURE Sub County Intervention beneficiarie Proposed Implementers Requi Resou Available Resource Frame Increased access drought resilient planting materials 8,000 projects in the department of Agriculture, WFP, SHA (Kshs Staff Increase adoption of climate smart technologies especially lowland areas National Government, County Government development partners (Kshs Staff Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers Schools and other institutions Learning Learning income generation food and Nutrition security School s with farms Ministry Education, Ministry Agriculture and Irrigation, County Government development partners Staff, ty of well fenced farms, 2021- Baringo Central 96,951 (16) 15,110 (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Kabarnet (salawa) 30-40 Sacho Tenges 30-40 Kapropita 30-40 Ewalel Chapchap 50-60 Eldama Ravine 129,535 (5) 6,477 (Urban poor) (5) 6,477 (Perkerra, Koibatek wards and urban poor) Lembus 10-20 Ravine 45-55 Lembus Kwen 20-30 Koibatek 40-50 Lembus Perkerra 40-50 Mumberesmaji mazuri 10-20 Total population in need of food assistance 220,000 Tiaty Dam construction production livestock watering Kolow (Barpel lo- area Apuket Chepk aral, Kapeta upper County Government and partners 2022- Reduce post- harvest losses implementation Households County Government of Baringo and development partners Trained staff LIVESTOCK Baringo North, Mogotio -Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming -Disease surveillance wards 50,000 Cattle, 200,000 goats 30,000 Sheep BCG, FAO and other Development partners Jun 2023 Pasroral and Provision of Livestock feeds wards 2,000HH BCG, FAO, Partners Jun 2023 Pasroral and Livestock off-take wards 5,000TLU BCGFAOPar tners Jun 2023 counties Provisiojn pasture seeds wards 5000HH BCGPartners Jun 2023 counties Employment addition extension staff to replace retirees wards 6,000HHs Continuou -Baringo North -Baringo South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 wards 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Jun 2023 -Mogotio across counties Loruk, RenovationConst ruction livestock Auction yards wards 13,000HH BCG, Partners Jun 2023 WATER saimo-soi Desilting of 10 No.water pans Barket 1200HH BCG, partners 1-4 months Barwessa Pipeline extension Expan sion of yieldin kapluk teland Ayaty a BHs 1500HH BCG partners 1-6months Bartabwa Equipping of boreholes drilled les 1200HH partners 1-6 months Kabartonjo Pipeline extension Kabart 2800HH BCG partners months Saimo- kipsaraman Pipeline extension Kapter e,kapc hepkor ,mond oi and kasisit 3200HH BCG partners months mberes Maji mazuri Maji BH water project mazuri Community million million Drilled and capped Lembus Torongo BH water project Toron 100 HH Community million million Drilled and capped Lembus Kapsigot water project Tinet 50 HH Community million million October. Ravine Kokorwonin water project Ravin 40 HH Community million million 31stApril. Koibatek Lebolos water project Sabati 30 HH Community million million October. Lembus Perkerra Kibias Tolmo water project Saos Kibias 20 HH Community million million October. MogotioI Servicing of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Emining Servicing and replacement of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Kisanana Servicing and replacement of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Mogotio Drilling and Equipping of 5 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 2 yrs Mogotio Construction and Rehabilitation of 4 potential water supplies Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 100 M 1 2 yrs Mogotio Rehabilitation 4 water pans, Construction of 14 major water pans and 80 farm ponds Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1 - 3Yrs Saimo soi Drilling of boreholes and 3000HH BCG partners 1-12months expansion of high yielding boreholes and construction of small dams Bartabwa Spring protection ,tank construction pipeline distribution ,and construction of small dams 2900HH BCG partners 1-12months Barwessa Drilling of boreholes ,Construction of tanks and expansion of the high yielding boreholes 2500HH BCG partners 1-12months HEALTH Countywide Vitamin A Supplementation ywide 90,449 (Children 6 months) MOH, Helen Keller International Jan June Countywide Supplementation ywide 20,000 July-Dec Countywide Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) ywide No. of children 6 59 months estimated to malnourish Jan - June Countywide Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) ywide Health Care workers MOH, KRC 2.5 M March 2023 Countywide Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of ywide 41,533 4.1 M Jan June complementary Foods) Children birth 2 years Countywide Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women ywide pregnant women 5.35M Jan -June Countywide Deworming ywide 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M Jan - June2023 Countywide Mass screening ywide Children from hotpot spot Areas County Govt and partners March 2023 Countywide Intensify Mass screening and referrals ywide facilities in the County County Govt and partners Countywide Provision of food supplements ywide Countywide County Govt and partners Countywide Integrated outreach services ywide 85 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties County Govt and partners Countywide SMART Survey ywide Countywide UNICEF, KRC, WVK Self Help Africa To be done the whole county in July Aug EDUCATION Baringo central Sourcing affordable meals to retain learners in schools 7,894 COUNTY GOVERNME NGOS CBO,S PARNTS 8.96M 6,000 sacks cookin utensil Human beans 12,000 100kg millet 10,000 bags ,90 maize 6000) Marigat Recommended for school feeding program MOE GOK County government Well wishers (1.48M) 121 ,bag rice,6 60bags beans 12,000 Human BARINGO NORTH GOKMOEN GOPRIVATE SECTORS Human KOIBATEK Provision Schools meals programme. World Programme 0.798M (61 bags of rice 6000 Beans 6112,0 Human od furl Mogotio County government Education partners Parents 1.254M (Beans 40 bags 360bsg Maize 93 bags) Human"
    }
}ces Garissa Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot River Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improvin Stable Worseni Distance households to main water sources Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West pokot Isiolo Baringo Wajir Kitui Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi river Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and improving across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources BaringoIsi oloIII GarissaI Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Kajiado Marsabi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Pokot Isiolo Kitui Samburu Baringo Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Mandera Kajiado Narok Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Nyeri(kieni), ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Tana River, the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for May by 56, 40, 52, 36 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri(Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for May by 33 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has remained stable and on improving trend however the following counties namely; Mandera,Tana River,Marsabit Turkana and have MUAC above long term average.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu River Turkana Wajir Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta River Pokot Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Baringo Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Wajir pokot Kitui Kajiado Taita taveta Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Garissa Narok Samburu Wajir West pokot Tana River Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2021 On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Eleven (11) counties; Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui ,Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase and thus twelve(12) counties including; Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, Four (4) counties reported improving trend, Twelve (12) counties recorded stable trend while seven (7) counties reported a worsening trend. The slight improvement is as result of the rains received during the month of May 2021 Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Alert Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kitui Samburu Tana River Isiolo Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 40.09 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. This is attributed the ongoing MAM rainfall. Interestingly, Mogotio subcounty has improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness. Central 40.81 43.91 Eldama 43.51 49.44 Mogotio 38.31 North 36.17 49.57 South 41.17 46.43 Tiaty 41.17 MANDERA County 34.28 49.57 The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. There was absolute improvement in the entire county form Severe vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness due to ongoing MAM rainfall. Banissa 29.89 49.93 M East 35.55 Lafey 29.26 42.47 M North 32.93 52.16 M South 42.67 53.05 M West 36.88 52.96 TURKANA County 49.23 51.82 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 67.75 57.36 T. East 37.97 38.79 T. Loima 60.58 61.91 T. North 41.86 T. South 55.79 58.83 T. West 56.96 62.52 MARSABIT County 33.75 32.57 The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. Laisaimis 25.01 Moyale 37.68 48.59 N. Horr 34.15 32.79 36.44 32.01 WAJIR County 30.97 36.66 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May from the previous month of April. W East 33.46 40.39 W. Eldas 26.08 32.13 W. North 42.99 49.81 W. South W. Tarbaj 36.17 W West 21.38 29.86 SAMBURU County 36.21 33.83 The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to last month of April. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 27.91 27.57 S. North 43.82 38.93 S. West 43.79 41.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 29.29 32.02 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 22.73 23.56 Daadab 25.25 28.78 29.61 33.41 Ijara 42.25 49.93 Lagdera 21.71 15.89 Dujis 24.98 ISIOLO County 23.45 22.67 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub- counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit in the month of May. I. North 24.72 24.45 I. South 21.52 20.00 TANA RIVER County 29.94 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of May. Garsen worsened Moderate vegetation condition. 25.02 28.89 Galole 31.92 24.34 Garsen 38.22 34.33 KAJIADO County 70.95 63.43 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of May. K. Central 73.43 62.17 K. East 67.64 62.59 K. North 67.45 61.66 K. South 57.22 K. West 75.72 69.58 LAIKIPIA County 38.69 36.48 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North declining from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in April to month of May. L. East 45.03 L. North 32.31 L. West 40.16 THARAKA NITHI County 47.49 57.05 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of April. Tharaka subcounty remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 66.65 66.97 Maara 72.58 69.81 Tharaka 32.25 49.31 WEST POKOT County 50.93 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous above normal. Pokot South improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba Kapenguria 51.73 58.28 Pokot South 51.11 64.22 Sigor 42.47 49.11 County 65.05 64.33 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of April across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Manyatta 79.61 64.57 Mbeere North 58.06 65.56 Mbeere South Runyenjes 82.66 70.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Apr 2021 VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 34.29 39.49 The county and most of its sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness condition from moderate vegetation deficit in the previous month of April. Kitui Central 54.01 51.04 Kitui East 37.42 42.87 Mwingi Central 38.22 Mwingi North 24.82 36.51 Mwingi West 24.82 44.04 Kitui Rural 37.76 30.43 Kitui South 32.51 Kitui West 64.71 42.68 MAKUENI County 59.42 51.44 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous month of April and current month of May are compared. Kaiti 73.55 71.55 Kibwezi East 73.55 Kibwezi West 73.55 42.32 Kilome 68.47 68.13 Makueni 52.94 43.85 Mbooni 62.73 60.63 County 56.62 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub- counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 61.61 57.08 Central Imenti 66.82 65.95 Igembe Central 43.31 57.91 Igembe North 35.39 37.73 Igembe South 46.67 66.37 North Imenti 67.68 70.22 South Imenti 78.71 Tigania East 48.48 46.76 Tigania West 48.48 57.84 NYERI County 74.98 68.99 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of April. Kieni 68.12 63.64 Mathira 75.48 68.72 Mukurweini 87.55 75.43 84.46 78.56 Othaya 81.71 83.49 74.77 KILIFI County 27.05 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit Ganze and Kaloleni improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened. Ganze 17.55 21.49 Kaloleni 19.84 21.55 Magarini 31.73 29.89 Malindi 28.56 28.85 Kilifi-North 32.61 40.11 Rabai 25.81 17.21 Kilifi-South 17.24 10.86 KWALE County 43.08 42.55 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is an improvement when the month under review is compared to the previous month of April. Kinango 36.67 37.17 Lungalunga 36.67 Matuga 53.92 43.63 Msambweni 55.43 51.81 County 42.21 45.31 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 42.21 51.19 Lamu West 40.82 41.91 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th VCI-3 month as at 30th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above Apr 2021 May 2021 normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 52.06 50.42 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Voi subcounty remains in normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 60.29 61.12 Taveta 56.86 58.76 46.48 42.31 Wundanyi 65.83 67.91 NAROK County 72.41 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both space and time Narok-East 65.99 64.52 Emurua Dikirr 80.12 70.98 Kilgoris 75.33 64.15 Narok-North 61.22 61.21 Narok-South 73.38 71.71 Narok-West 77.83 68.68 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "July_2021.pdf": "July 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of June 2021 marked the beginning of the cold season with several parts of ASAL counties remaining dry. According to metrological department, most of ASAL counties received less than 50 percent of average rainfall with most parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Tana River and Turkana receiving less than 25 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of June as shown in Figure 1a.The coastal strip received over 75 percent of average amounts. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1a indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean (LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of July 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive occasional rainfall during the beginning of the month and near average rainfall towards the end of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near to above the long term average for July. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for July. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional rainsdrizzles while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the highlands east of the rift valley. Figure 1 a.June Rainfall Performance Figure 1b.Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2020 with that in June 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of June 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2020 and June 2021 As at the end of June 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Wajir and Kilifi.The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit except Isiolo that is in severe vegetation deficit band implying that the VCI values recorded in June 2021 were below normal indicating that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of June 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level; Kilifi South, Rabai (Kilifi), Isiolo North and Isiolo South (Isiolo County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with Kilifi two sub counties in extreme vegetation deficit band. Lagdera (Garissa) and Isiolo (Isiolo North and South) are in severe vegetation deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in June 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of June 2021.The vegetation condition has deteriorated as compared to the previous month of May 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2021 Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair and on declining trend as compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decline in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality and increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to drying open water sources. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor condition with Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Tana river, Laikipia and Kitui reporting poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Lagdera (Garissa), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Moderate vegetation deficit Marsabit Wajir Garissa Tana river Kilifi Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Dadaab, Township) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui Rural) Kwale (Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir south) Normal vegetation greenness Kitui, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Lamu, Kwale, Laikipia Wajir (Tarbaj Wajir-West Wajir-North Turkana (Turkana North, Turkana East) Meru (Tigania East, Igembe North) Taita taveta (Taveta, Voi) Marsabit (Moyale North Horr Saku) Mandera (Mandera South Mandera West, Lafey Mandera East) Makueni (Makueni, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Lamu (Lamu West) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West) Kwale (Lungalunga Matuga, Msambweni) Kitui (Kitui South, Kitui West, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Embu (Manyatta) Baringo (Mogotio) Vegetation greenness above normal Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South), Kajiado-West Kitui (Kitui-Central) Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West,) Makueni (Kilome, Mbooni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, South Imenti South Imenti, Tigania West) Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) Makueni (Kaiti) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tana River Wajir Embu Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Mandera Meru Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kajiado kwale Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on worsening trend as compared to previous month due to deterioration in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Lamu and Wajir reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2021 Cattle Goats Baringo Kwale Embu Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kwale Milk production Milk production is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as 11 counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, and Tana river are on worsening trend while twelve (12) counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Kwale have milk production below LTA. The following seven (7) counties including Embu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Mandera Samburu Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Wajir Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The cattle prices in Mandera, Nyeri, Turkana and Marsabit are below due to deteriorating body condition in those particular counties. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of June in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Lamu Meru Narok Samburu Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Nyeri Turkana Marsabit Narok Tana River Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Turkana Laikipia Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Marsabit,Makueni and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have remained stable as compared to the previous month due to fair state of livestock body condition however they remain low as compared to normal season. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season ended across the marginal agricultural areas and thus Kilifi,Makueni,Nyeri(Kieni),Taita taveta and Kwale reported fair crop condition as compared to good in normal season however Kitui reported that most of the crops withered due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Crops in marginal agricultural counties were at grain filling and harvesting stage. Farmers are expecting below average crop production due to depressed rains received. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in June as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Mandera,Marsabit ,Taita taveta,Wajir have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Kwale Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Mandera Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kwale Kitui Makueni Marsabit Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 20 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is increase in distance to household water source as result of the drying water sources.The late onset of the MAM rains coupled with poor performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Nyeri Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Baringo Tana River Garissa Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana Kwale Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is on worsening trend across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 17 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Wajir West Pokot Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Lamu Makueni Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana river Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Marsabit Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Makueni Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Turkana Kwale Mandera Tana River Kitui Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Narok Baringo Garissa Kilifi Mandera West Pokot Turkana Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Meru Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kwale Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Mandera and Nyeri(kieni),ToT values are above the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is however on worsening trend as compared to the previous month with ten(10) counties reporting worsening trend. The worsening trend is as result of increasing maize prices in relation to stable goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the MUAC is on worsening trend with eight(8) counties including kajiado,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Nyeri,Samburu,Tana River and Wajir recording worsening trend.The negative trend in malnutrition of the eight(8)counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River West Pokot Turkana Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Tana River Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kwale Mandera Narok West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of June 2021.On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Twelve (12) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui, Lamu, Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase while Eleven (11) counties reported Normal drought phase as at July. During the month under review, Fourteen (14) counties reported worsening trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while one county reported an improvement .The worsening trend across most of ASAL counties is as result of the poor rains received during the March April May (MAM) 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Alert Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Tana River Wajir Marsabit Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Activation of satellite livestock markets and commercial destocking to salvage pastoralists against imminent losses with expected progression of the long dry spell. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th June 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.49 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June except Mogotio which was at normal greenness. This is attributed the late cessation of MAM rainfall. Central 43.91 54.89 Eldama 49.44 58.38 Mogotio 38.31 North 49.57 60.67 South 46.43 54.27 Tiaty MANDERA County 49.57 50.26 The county and its sub counties are in Normal to above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June which is stable trend. Banissa 49.93 55.43 M East 35.55 43.98 Lafey 42.47 46.69 M North 52.16 58.28 M South 53.05 45.21 M West 52.96 48.94 TURKANA County 51.82 59.31 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 57.36 T. East 38.79 46.17 T. Loima 61.91 72.75 T. North 41.86 48.07 T. South 58.83 T. West 62.52 69.97 MARSABIT County 32.57 32.97 The county and one of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit band. Moyale was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. North Horr and Saku wards improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 25.01 24.94 Moyale 48.59 41.93 N. Horr 32.79 35.09 32.01 35.25 WAJIR County 36.66 31.75 The situation worsens in the county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir North and Tarbaj maintained normal vegetation greenness. W East 40.39 34.75 W.Eldas 32.13 26.48 W. North 49.81 W. South W.Tarbaj W West 29.86 26.24 SAMBURU County 33.83 38.72 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to the previous month of May. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 27.57 28.66 S. North 38.93 48.33 S. West 41.81 46.59 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 32.02 29.37 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county improving from Normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty also remained at severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 23.56 22.92 Daadab 28.78 24.98 33.41 29.43 Ijara 49.93 50.58 Lagdera 15.89 12.17 Dujis 24.98 22.72 ISIOLO County 22.67 18.72 The entire county condition deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit following poor performance and early cessation of the MAM rains. I. North 24.45 19.77 I. South 20.00 17.13 RIVER County 29.94 27.48 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of June. 28.89 27.71 Galole 24.34 20.74 Garsen 34.33 31.49 KAJIADO County 63.43 58.69 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of June. K. Central 62.17 53.39 K. East 62.59 59.71 K. North 61.66 55.75 K. South 57.22 53.85 K. West 69.58 65.22 LAIKIPIA County 36.48 39.63 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 45.03 48.35 L. North 32.31 34.74 L. West 40.16 44.57 THARAKA NITHI County 57.05 62.68 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of May. Tharaka sub- county improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 66.97 65.65 Maara 69.81 Tharaka 49.31 61.13 POKOT County 50.93 56.87 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the county and all the sub-counties with Kacheliba and Sigor improving from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 53.22 Kapenguria 58.28 Pokot South 64.22 70.36 Sigor 49.11 53.32 County 64.33 57.06 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of June across most of the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal. Manyatta sub- county deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 64.57 48.55 Mbeere North 65.56 64.02 Mbeere South 55.41 Runyenjes 70.42 57.16 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 39.49 40.35 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at Above normal, normal vegetation greenness and moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 51.04 52.66 Kitui East 42.87 41.84 Mwingi Central 38.22 35.16 Mwingi North 36.51 38.66 Mwingi West 44.04 43.11 Kitui Rural 30.43 27.87 Kitui South 40.77 Kitui West 42.68 46.83 MAKUENI County 51.44 53.03 The county and most of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable for most parts when compared to the previous month of May. Kibwezi East worsened from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 71.55 63.88 Kibwezi East Kibwezi West 42.32 48.83 Kilome 68.13 67.72 Makueni 43.85 48.33 Mbooni 60.63 63.73 County 56.62 55.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Igembe North and Tigania East which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 57.08 Central Imenti 65.95 56.37 Igembe Central 57.91 66.04 Igembe North 37.73 40.98 Igembe South 66.37 70.47 North Imenti 70.22 57.12 South Imenti 68.27 Tigania East 46.76 39.28 Tigania West 57.84 53.22 NYERI County 68.99 65.65 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of May. Kieni 63.64 Mathira 68.72 59.21 Mukurweini 75.43 51.72 78.56 77.51 Othaya 81.71 79.14 74.77 63.77 KILIFI County 24.93 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze 21.49 22.94 Kaloleni 21.55 Magarini 29.89 25.84 Malindi 28.85 24.94 Kilifi-North 40.11 42.32 Rabai 17.21 Kilifi-South 10.86 KWALE County 42.55 38.57 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is stable when the month under review is compared to the previous month of May except Kinango which worsened from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Kinango 37.17 34.22 Lungalunga 48.88 Matuga 43.63 36.06 Msambweni 51.81 47.42 County 45.31 43.66 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 51.19 51.66 Lamu West 41.91 39.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th May 2021 VCI-3 month as at 27th Color VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 50.42 46.28 Decrease in the vegetation greenness condition from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Voi sub-county remains in normal vegetation greenness while the county worsened from above normal to normal greenness. Mwatate 61.12 57.24 Taveta 58.76 52.83 42.31 38.93 Wundanyi 67.91 62.86 NAROK County 65.09 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor is good MAM seasonal rainfall performance in this region. Narok-East 64.52 65.23 Emurua Dikirr 70.98 66.12 Kilgoris 64.15 56.73 Narok-North 61.21 63.82 Narok-South 71.71 Narok-West 68.68 64.18 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "August_2021.pdf": "AUGUST 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August, near to below average rainfall was recorded over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya including West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo and Narok, Samburu and Laikipia counties. Dry weather conditions were experienced over the Southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and most of the Northwestern Kenya. temperatures were above normal over most parts of the Arid and Semi-Arid counties of Kenya (ASALS). During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties that received between 6- 20mm of rainfall include; Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, Kajiado, Isiolo, Lamu and some part of Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui, Meru and Tharaka Nithi. Most of Arid counties that received TRACE rainfall amounts (2-5mm1mm) includes; Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. Figure 1 indicates spatial rainfall performance during the month of August as rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for September According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), It is expected that several parts of the country will be generally dry for most of the month of September. Almost all 23 ASAL counties are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional showers expected in the coastal strip. Near-Average to Above-Average rainfall is expected in some parts of Turkana, Kajiado, Narok and Laikipia. West Pokot and Baringo counties will be within Near-Average to Above- Average rainfall category. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for September. Figure 1.August Rainfall Performance Figure 2.Rainfall forecast, September 2021 Figure 1. Rainfall Performance, August 2021 Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir. The eight (8) counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Makueni, Narok, Turkana, Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West- Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is worsening compared to previous month of July. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Milk production Milk production in Baringo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported an improving trend whereas Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana and Wajir indicated a worsening trend when then month of August is compared with previous month of July. Embu Lamu, Makueni, Narok Samburu and West Pokot were above LTA while the Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir are below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Samburu Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. In eight out of the 23 ASAL counties the cattle prices are worsening with majority at stable and no single county displaying improvement as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Samburu Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Wajir Garissa Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties falling in below LTA category. The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Nyeri Wajir Turkana Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and minimal rain showers on June, most crops planted are struggling with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir have reported poor crop condition. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to have a negative impact on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, the farmers have been advocated to practice planting of fast maturing seedlings and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are stable in 18 counties,3 Counties Nyeri, Tharakaha ve shown a worsening trend .Garissa ,Isiolo, Kajiado ,Mandera ,Marsabit, Nyeri and Taita Taveta recorded prices that are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Garissa Tana River Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. The consecutive poorly performed long rains and short rains seasons of 2020 and 21 respectively is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance household s to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Pokot Isiolo Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Garissa, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri and Turkana, ToT values are above and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT maintains a stable trend as to the previous month. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri (Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for August by 40 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend, however the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Tana- River Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Wajir Pokot Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Nithi Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West- Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to be the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the minimal orand NO rains received during the month of August. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri(Kieni) Taita-Taveta Alert Embu(Mbeere) Meru-North Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana-River Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera Garissa Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 54.31 58.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which was at normal greenness. Central 60.01 60.94 Eldama 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 North 62.51 65.12 South 53.82 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. Banissa 44.29 M East 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County 53.23 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 T. East 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County 34.64 38.82 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County 27.22 23.78 The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W East 29.27 23.68 W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County 38.69 34.59 Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 28.61 26.54 S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.91 21.16 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Balambala 23.42 21.17 Daadab 20.85 15.29 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County 18.97 23.09 There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of July. I. North 19.76 23.94 I. South 17.76 21.79 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County 47.38 45.68 Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 39.23 32.92 K. East 43.33 41.26 K. North 45.34 K. South 44.21 48.55 K. West 56.34 52.74 LAIKIPIA County 38.05 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to Above Normal. L. East 44.73 36.94 L. North 33.18 30.25 L. West 43.95 51.75 THARAKA NITHI County 57.62 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous month of July. Chulga 61.51 50.79 Maara 60.97 46.02 Tharaka 55.08 42.92 POKOT County 51.38 53.13 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 49.12 50.65 Kapenguria Pokot South 63.51 61.87 Sigor 48.62 51.31 County 46.56 39.61 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 42.51 40.01 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North 53.27 44.86 Mbeere South 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26h VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 38.38 41.68 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 46.37 55.31 Kitui East 40.18 Mwingi Central 32.78 Mwingi North 33.77 27.38 Mwingi 35.43 32.64 Kitui Rural 27.82 Kitui South 41.41 48.56 Kitui West 40.64 41.97 MAKUENI County 44.07 50.46 The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 46.63 Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 Kilome 50.89 56.77 Makueni 39.66 46.16 Mbooni 47.38 County 51.44 44.27 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 53.76 44.15 Central Imenti 51.64 41.85 Igembe Central 60.23 51.11 Igembe North 40.35 38.06 Igembe South 62.33 53.55 North Imenti 51.43 52.32 South Imenti 64.16 Tigania East 34.12 39.66 Tigania 47.09 47.26 NYERI County 58.03 The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI values. Kieni 60.23 Mathira 49.32 42.09 Mukurweini 37.05 Othaya 64.44 37.32 48.76 45.06 KILIFI County 21.19 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Ganze 17.24 Kaloleni 17.95 15.23 Magarini 22.66 21.53 Malindi 24.84 19.41 Kilifi-North 45.34 39.54 Rabai 14.39 Kilifi-South 26.18 KWALE County 30.75 21.04 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango Kinango 26.02 16.93 sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration from the previous month of July. Lungalunga 40.55 Matuga 31.23 23.56 Msambweni 38.99 26.21 County 40.72 32.41 The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under review remained stable in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 50.82 51.31 Lamu West 34.87 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 35.47 43.47 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 40.58 42.58 Taveta 34.15 41.87 32.95 Wundanyi 59.94 NAROK County 59.24 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 57.64 49.59 Emurua Dikirr 62.69 64.54 Kilgoris 51.09 51.75 North 60.88 54.84 South 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "September_2021.pdf": "September 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties remained generally dry and rainfall received was below the long term average of August 2021.Most parts of ASAL counties including; Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kajiado, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Nyeri, Isiolo, Meru North and Taita Taveta received less than 20mm of rainfall totals except the highland areas of rift valley including Baringo, Laikipia , Samburu, Narok and West Pokot which received between 51-100 mm of total rainfall. Figure 1 indicates observed rainfall totals during the month of August 2021. Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will generally remain dry and sunny during the month of September 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. However, areas bordering Uganda and Southern Sudan are likely to experience occasional rainfall during the first two weeks of the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be slightly above the long-term average amounts for September. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be below the long-term average for the month of September. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions for most of the month. However, occasional afternoon showers and cloudy conditions in the mornings are likely, especially during the first three weeks. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for September while North Eastern Kenya and Southeastern Lowlands including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely are likely to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Figure 2.Rainfall forecast Figure 1.Rainfall performance Figure 2.August Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir.The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Makueni, Narok, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month even though pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Productio Makueni Narok Samburu West Pokot Kwale Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Pokot Garissa Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 52 percent of the ASAL counties as compared to 60 percent during the previous month as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Samburu Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Wajir Garissa Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas and thus late planted maize crops were in fair to poor condition with farm army worm infestation in counties like Kilifi while the harvested crops were below average as compared to expected production during normal season in marginal agriculture counties like Nyeri (Kieni), Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are aboveclose to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month.The increase has disadvantaged pastoralists terms of trade and thus need for close monitoring as the season progress especially in Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Marsabit ,Nyeri and Taita taveta counties. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Nyeri Wajir Turkana Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Marsabit Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties.80 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. The ToT maintains a stable trend compared to the previous month however it is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of deteriorating livestock body condition in relation to increase in maize price. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend with the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri having MUAC values above long term average. The remaining counties including Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Meru North,Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kwale and Laikipia were close to LTA.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Kajiado Kitui Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Tana- River Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Wajir West- Pokot Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Laikipia Wajir Garissa Kwale Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West-Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri(Kieni) Taita-Taveta Alert Embu(Mbeere) Meru-North Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana-River Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera Garissa Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 54.31 58.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which was at normal greenness. Central 60.01 60.94 Eldama Ravine 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 North 62.51 65.12 South 53.82 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. Banissa 44.29 M East 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County 53.23 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 T. East 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County 34.64 38.82 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County 27.22 23.78 The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W East 29.27 23.68 W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County 38.69 34.59 Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 28.61 26.54 S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.91 21.16 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Balambala 23.42 21.17 Daadab 20.85 15.29 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County 18.97 23.09 There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of July. I. North 19.76 23.94 I. South 17.76 21.79 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County 47.38 45.68 Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 39.23 32.92 K. East 43.33 41.26 K. North 45.34 K. South 44.21 48.55 K. West 56.34 52.74 LAIKIPIA County 38.05 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to Above Normal. L. East 44.73 36.94 L. North 33.18 30.25 L. West 43.95 51.75 THARAKA NITHI County 57.62 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous month of July. Chulga 61.51 50.79 Maara 60.97 46.02 Tharaka 55.08 42.92 POKOT County 51.38 53.13 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 49.12 50.65 Kapenguria Pokot South 63.51 61.87 Sigor 48.62 51.31 County 46.56 39.61 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 42.51 40.01 Mbeere North 53.27 44.86 Mbeere South 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26h VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 38.38 41.68 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 46.37 55.31 Kitui East 40.18 Mwingi Central 32.78 Mwingi North 33.77 27.38 Mwingi 35.43 32.64 Kitui Rural 27.82 Kitui South 41.41 48.56 Kitui West 40.64 41.97 MAKUENI County 44.07 50.46 The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 46.63 Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 Kilome 50.89 56.77 Makueni 39.66 46.16 Mbooni 47.38 County 51.44 44.27 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 53.76 44.15 Central Imenti 51.64 41.85 Igembe Central 60.23 51.11 Igembe North 40.35 38.06 Igembe South 62.33 53.55 North Imenti 51.43 52.32 South Imenti 64.16 Tigania East 34.12 39.66 Tigania 47.09 47.26 NYERI County 58.03 The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI values. Kieni 60.23 Mathira 49.32 42.09 Mukurweini 37.05 Othaya 64.44 37.32 48.76 45.06 KILIFI County 21.19 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Ganze 17.24 Kaloleni 17.95 15.23 Magarini 22.66 21.53 Malindi 24.84 19.41 Kilifi-North 45.34 39.54 Rabai 14.39 Kilifi-South 26.18 KWALE County 30.75 21.04 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration from the previous month of July. Kinango 26.02 16.93 Lungalunga 40.55 Matuga 31.23 23.56 Msambweni 38.99 26.21 County 40.72 32.41 The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under review remained stable in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 50.82 51.31 Lamu West 34.87 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 35.47 43.47 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 40.58 42.58 Taveta 34.15 41.87 32.95 Wundanyi 59.94 NAROK County 59.24 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 57.64 49.59 Emurua Dikirr 62.69 64.54 Kilgoris 51.09 51.75 North 60.88 54.84 South 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "October_2021.pdf": "October 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for September 2021 During the month of September 2021, West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, western parts of Marsabit, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia County received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (70-200mm). The Coast strip, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale received near to below average rainfall. Generally sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over the rest of the country during this period including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. As at 27th September, Mandera, Garissa, Machakos, Makindu and Voi meteorological stations recorded no rainfall during the month. Rainfall Forecast for October 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for October indicates that several ASAL counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience Below-Average rainfall. Turkana, Samburu, Meru, Laikipia, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to above-average, as seen in Figure 2. The October 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2020 with that in September 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current Figure 1. September Rainfall Performance Figure 1. October Rainfall forecast condition of vegetation is considerably below that of September 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 and September As at the end of September 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu and Wajir. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in September 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of September 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of September 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini, Kilifi-South, Kilifi-North) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North, Laikipia East) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East, Samburu North) Wajir (Wajir South, Eldas, Wajir West) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West, Mandera South) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Township) Samburu (Samburu west) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2021 Cattle Goats Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Laikipia Makueni Turkana Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, over 50 percent of counties reported cattle above LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Tana-River Nithi Wajir West- Pokot Taveta Garissa Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kitui Baringo Garissa Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana-River Turkana Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of September, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Lamu, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of August. Improvement is noted in West Pokot county due to the light showers received during the month of september. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Stable Worsening Livestock Mortality During the reporting period,all ASAL counties did not report livestock mortality except Kilifi that indicated suspected cases of livestock mortality as result of drought and thus need for close monitoring. Prices Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Makueni Mandera Samburu Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in September as compared to the previous month of August as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Garissa Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kilifi Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Baringo Kilifi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Nithi Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 70 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Wajir Pokot Garissa river Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni River Turkana Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except West Pokot ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT maintains a stable and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2021 Indica Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana-River Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Mander aMarsab Nyeri Turkana Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Isiolo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has greatly worsened in most counties. Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Marsabit and Makueni have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic.70 percent of the ASAL counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Garissa Makueni Turkana. Isiolo Kilifi Taita Taveta Wajir Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Nithi Pokot Baringo West Pokot Laikipia Turkana Kilifi Narok Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taveta Tana River Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kwale Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of September 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Meru-North, Tharaka- Nithi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Turkana, Garissa, Lamu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Tana-River and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining Seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Alert Tharaka-Nithi Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Alarm Turkana Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Tana-River Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 58.42 66.42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September with Eldama improving from normal greenness to above normal greenness. Central 60.94 73.72 Eldama 42.28 62.20 Mogotio 67.77 North 65.12 71.80 South 63.95 Tiaty 58.54 64.76 MANDERA County 46.67 The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation Banissa 43.65 greenness in the month of September which is a stable trend except Mandera South which improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. M East 39.49 43.56 Lafey 41.53 46.29 M North 44.43 49.12 M South 34.22 48.24 M West 36.45 45.55 TURKANA County 53.23 48.51 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. The county and Turkana South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. T Central 78.18 72.33 T. East 43.08 38.62 T. Loima 52.88 T. North 43.38 41.79 T. South 57.39 46.86 T. West 56.15 53.43 MARSABIT County 38.82 36.38 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while North Horr improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Laisaimis 34.31 32.29 Moyale 34.34 36.59 N. Horr 41.97 37.98 48.44 48.17 WAJIR County 23.78 33.02 The situation remained stable in the county and Eldas at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir East and North improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness during the month under review while W East 23.68 37.07 W. Eldas 28.52 W. North 34.27 46.72 Wajir south and West improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. W. South 16.92 25.34 W. Tarbaj 30.35 W West 19.36 23.68 SAMBURU County 34.59 30.93 Stability in vegetation condition was noted in the county and two of its sub-counties. Samburu North worsened from normal greenness to Moderate vegetation deficit band. S East 26.54 25.44 S. North 41.21 33.36 S. West 44.63 45.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th September Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 21.16 28.73 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate Balambala 21.17 28.38 vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Lagdera sub- county improving from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit band. Daadab 15.29 26.73 21.15 30.93 Ijara 29.44 29.12 Lagdera 17.28 25.15 Dujis 20.41 29.79 ISIOLO County 23.09 27.95 There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of August. I. North 23.94 28.29 I. South 21.79 27.44 RIVER County 29.23 The county and its sub counties noted an improving trend from Moderate vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. 28.36 36.12 Galole 25.66 36.96 Garsen 32.21 41.24 KAJIADO County 45.68 55.02 Improving trend noted across the county and four of its sub counties with a stable trend noted for Kajiado West. K. Central 32.92 42.55 K. East 41.26 53.79 K. North K. South 48.55 56.98 K. West 52.74 61.28 LAIKIPIA County 37.62 The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison to the previous months. However, a decline L. East 36.94 L. North 30.25 31.25 was noted in Laikipia East whose value shifted from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. L. West 51.75 58.94 THARAKA NITHI County 45.25 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Maara improved from normal to above normal greenness. Chulga 50.79 Maara 46.02 52.51 Tharaka 42.92 38.56 POKOT County 53.13 62.75 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month. Kacheliba 50.65 58.06 Kapenguri 68.61 Pokot South 61.87 73.31 Sigor 51.31 60.09 County 39.61 47.41 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of September with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta Runyenjes sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 40.01 55.59 Mbeere North 44.86 48.87 Mbeere South 35.46 41.71 Runyenjes 42.78 56.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r 2021 Colou values month Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 41.68 48.05 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central remained stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui East, South and West improved from normal to above normal greenness while Mwingi central, west and Kitui rural improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 55.31 62.82 Kitui East 53.31 Mwingi Central 38.74 Mwingi North 27.38 Mwingi 32.64 41.12 Kitui Rural 27.82 35.83 Kitui South 48.56 56.11 Kitui West 41.97 51.15 MAKUENI County 50.46 The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared to August for Kaiti, Kibwezi East and Makueni. Kaiti 46.63 72.81 Kibwezi 48.01 57.26 Kibwezi 51.32 58.77 Kilome 56.77 67.07 Makueni 46.16 53.64 Mbooni 72.01 County 44.27 46.51 The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and eight others of its Sub-counties except for North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central and South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 44.15 47.66 Central Imenti 41.85 46.95 Igembe Central 51.11 48.94 Igembe North 38.06 40.31 Igembe South 53.55 47.91 North Imenti 52.32 55.16 South Imenti 47.38 Tigania 39.66 44.07 Tigania 47.26 48.02 NYERI County 52.37 The county, Nyeri town and Othaya sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with the previous month of August, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI conditions. Kieni 52.33 Mathira 42.09 Mukurwei 63.03 37.05 51.56 Othaya 37.32 52.62 45.06 49.62 KILIFI County 21.19 23.08 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 17.24 18.56 Kaloleni 15.23 18.63 Magarini 21.53 25.68 Malindi 19.41 13.41 North 39.54 26.65 Rabai 14.39 18.28 South 26.18 29.46 KWALE County 21.04 23.68 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango improving from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Kinango 16.93 21.24 Lungalung 25.84 Matuga 23.56 27.71 Msambwe 26.21 32.09 County 32.41 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West deteriorated from moderate deficit to severe vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 51.31 47.13 21.47 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month August VCI-3 month as at 28th r 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 43.47 The County and its sub-counties improved from Normal to above normal vegetation greenness while Wundanyi remained stable at above normal greenness with a high VCI value. Mwatate 42.58 Taveta 41.87 59.48 54.19 Wundanyi 59.94 71.06 NAROK County 53.99 There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and five of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. 49.59 47.91 Emurua Dikirr 64.54 68.62 Kilgoris 51.75 57.32 North 54.84 54.71 South 57.44 52.66 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "November_2021.pdf": "November 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for October 2021 During the month of October 2021, most parts of the ASALs experienced dry weather conditions except the West Pokot, Southern Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia, and Narok Counties received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (76- 125mm). The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet been realized over several places. Most meteorological stations in the counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui and Makueni recorded monthly rainfall totals of less than 75 percent of their October 2 monthly LTMs. Trace amounts of rainfall 5.0mm were observed in Marsabit, Wajir and Makueni. Rainfall Forecast for November 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for November 2021 indicates West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Narok, Kajiado, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi western parts of Kitui and Makueni are likely to experience near-average rainfall for the month. The South-Eastern Lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Taita Taveta), Northeastern (Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Turkana counties) and the Coastal Strip (Kwale, Lamu, Tana River and Kilifi counties) are likely to experience near to below average rainfall as shown in Figure 2. The November 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast Figure 1. October Rainfall Performance Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2020 with that in October 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of October 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2020 and October 2021 As at the end of October 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in October 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the five counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of October 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Malindi) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) recorded the low VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of October 2021. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2021 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Malindi) Severe vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu West) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East) Tana River (Bura) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Central, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East, Narok North) Nyeri (Kieni, Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported good pasture condition due to the minimal OND rainfall showers, and Baringo and Narok displaying fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and NO rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Narok Turkana West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Laikipia Narok West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Wajir Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are worsening as compared to the last month of September. These includes; Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tana River and Turkana owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Tana-River Nithi Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Taveta Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri West-Pokot Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana-River Nithi Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of October, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Garrisa,Turkana, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of September. Improvement is noted in Baringo, Makueni county due to stable body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period the following 10(ten) counties including Mandera,Garissa ,Wajir ,Wajir ,Marsabit,isiolo,Tana river,Samburu,Laikipia and Turkana reported cases of livestock death as per table 7.0.The situation has worsened as compared to the previous month and thus need for quick response and close monitoring. Table 7.0.Livestock mortality County Livestock deaths reported Mandera Reported livestock deaths Garissa Reported cases of livestock deaths Wajir Reported cases of livestock deaths Marsabit Deaths reported Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Tana-River Nithi Pokot Baringo Isiolo Makueni Taveta Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Turkana Baringo Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taveta Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Isiolo Reported cases of livestock deaths Tana river Reported cases of livestock deaths Samburu Reported cases of livestock deaths Laikipia Reported cases of livestock deaths Kilifi Reported cases of livestock deaths Kwale Reported cases of livestock deaths Livestock deaths reported Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in October as compared to the previous month of September as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Kilifi Makueni Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Kitui Marsabit River WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2021. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Kitui West Pokot Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Nyeri Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10.0. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 87 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Pokot Kitui Wajir Kitui Samburu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a declining trend as its displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs Table 11.0: Terms of trade, October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Makueni Kajiado Kitui Tana-River Baringo Isiolo Kwale Baringo Makueni Pokot Garissa Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni and Taita-Taveta have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Wajir and West-Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Pokot Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Nithi Turkana Samburu Kwale Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Narok Taita-Taveta Tana-River Nithi Turkana Garissa Kitui Makueni Taveta Turkana Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Nithi Wajir Pokot Baringo Kitui Makueni Samburu Taveta Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Tana-River Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of October 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties; Kwale, Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru North, Narok, Nyeri Kieni, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas ten(10) counties including Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana-River,Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the ongoing poor performance of 2021 short rains. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Alert Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Makueni Meru North Narok Nyeri Kieni Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Alarm Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Wajir Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th October 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th Octeber Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 66.42 76.48 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October with an improvement in the VCI values. Central 73.72 88.37 Eldama 62.20 Mogotio 67.77 74.09 North 71.80 79.18 South 63.95 65.46 Tiaty 64.76 77.42 MANDERA County 46.67 The county and its sub counties remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month of October while Mandera South improved from normal greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 43.65 42.28 M East 43.56 41.19 Lafey 46.29 43.11 M North 49.12 48.75 M South 48.24 M West 45.55 48.77 TURKANA County 48.51 54.82 There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. The county and Turkana South improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. T Central 72.33 65.27 T. East 38.62 49.96 T. Loima 52.88 65.39 T. North 41.79 45.51 T. South 46.86 53.94 T. West 53.43 60.15 MARSABIT County 36.38 35.55 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Saku improved from normal to above normal greenness. Laisaimis 32.29 32.14 Moyale 36.59 37.51 N. Horr 37.98 36.14 48.17 WAJIR County 33.02 37.21 The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Wajir East and Tarbaj remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Wajir South and West remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. W East 37.07 40.89 W. Eldas 36.15 W. North 46.72 52.62 W. South 25.34 28.44 W. Tarbaj 49.26 W West 23.68 28.92 SAMBURU County 30.93 40.96 The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West improved from normal to Above normal greenness. S East 25.44 33.41 S. North 33.36 46.33 S. West 45.04 53.33 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 28.73 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation deficit band during the month under review with an improvement in the VCI values. Balambala 28.38 29.98 Daadab 26.73 32.74 30.93 34.97 Ijara 29.12 32.67 Lagdera 25.15 29.01 Dujis 29.79 32.33 ISIOLO County 27.95 29.57 There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month of September with an improving trend in the VCI values. I. North 28.29 30.22 I. South 27.44 28.58 RIVER County 37.83 The county and two of its sub counties noted a stable trend at normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Bura deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 36.12 34.62 Galole 36.96 Garsen 41.24 41.27 KAJIADO County 55.02 56.18 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. K. Central 42.55 K. East 53.79 56.05 K. North 41.66 K. South 56.98 56.15 K. West 61.28 62.23 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in comparison to the previous month. Laikipia West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while East and North improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation greenness. L. East 38.42 L. North 31.25 40.23 L. West 58.94 67.72 THARAKA NITHI County 41.35 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chulga and Maara remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while Tharaka deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of September. Chulga 53.19 Maara 52.51 52.64 Tharaka 38.56 33.27 POKOT County 62.75 74.49 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the previous month with improving VCI values. Kacheliba 58.06 Kapenguri 68.61 82.26 Pokot South 73.31 81.87 Sigor 60.09 70.67 County 47.41 47.86 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of October with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub-counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 55.59 56.56 Mbeere North 48.87 47.22 Mbeere South 41.71 42.65 Runyenjes 56.17 59.02 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colou values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 48.05 46.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Kitui central, South and West remained stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi Central, West and Kitui Rural remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kitui East deteriorated from above normal greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 62.82 63.71 Kitui East 53.31 49.34 Mwingi Central 38.74 37.92 Mwingi North 27.94 Mwingi 41.12 46.72 Kitui Rural 35.83 37.53 Kitui South 56.11 53.47 Kitui West 51.15 57.19 MAKUENI County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable trend with an improving trend for almost all of the VCI values when compared to the previous month. Kaiti 72.81 82.18 Kibwezi 57.26 Kibwezi 58.77 59.22 Kilome 67.07 Makueni 53.64 54.69 Mbooni 72.01 77.14 County 46.51 45.72 The vegetation greenness remained stable at normal vegetation greenness across the county and eight of its Sub-counties. North Imenti remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Buuri 47.66 49.06 Central Imenti 46.95 43.88 Igembe Central 48.94 Igembe North 40.31 42.36 Igembe South 47.91 41.06 North Imenti 55.16 50.49 South Imenti 47.38 51.71 Tigania 44.07 41.75 Tigania 48.02 47.18 NYERI County 52.37 The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Mathira improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 52.33 49.21 Mathira 54.66 Mukurwein 63.03 61.37 51.56 Othaya 52.62 64.48 49.62 49.24 KILIFI County 23.08 21.24 The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North and South Ganze 18.56 16.14 Kaloleni 18.63 15.74 deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit while Malindi deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 25.68 25.89 Malindi 13.41 North 26.65 Rabai 18.28 11.26 South 29.46 16.95 KWALE County 23.68 22.88 The county and all its sub-counties remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of September. Kinango 21.24 20.89 Lungalung 25.84 22.99 Matuga 27.71 28.03 Msambwen 32.09 32.98 County 27.85 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. Lamu East 47.13 41.36 Lamu West 20.03 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 28th September VCI-3 month as at 24th October Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 54.63 The County and its sub-counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most of the VCI values showing a decreasing trend in the month under review. Mwatate 54.25 Taveta 59.48 60.43 54.19 51.06 Wundanyi 71.06 69.16 NAROK County 56.02 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. 47.91 44.86 Emurua Dikirr 68.62 Kilgoris 57.32 66.96 North 54.71 49.79 South 54.12 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "December_2021.pdf": "December 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for November, 2021 During the month of November 2021, dry weather conditions were experienced over several parts of the ASALs. However, occasional rainfall was experienced over northern Wajir and Mandera. Isolated storms were also recorded over the Southeastern lowlands, Coastal of Makueni and Kilifi respectively. Mandera and Msabaha are the only stations that recorded above normal rainfall at 170.6 and 154.8, respectively. Moyale, Embu and Meru recorded near average rainfall at 82.3, 80.7 and 77.2 respectively. The distribution both in time and space was generally poor in most areas with most of the rainfall being experienced during the last week of November. Rainfall Forecast for December 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for December 2021 indicates that; During this period, warmer than average SSTs have also been observed along the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean and near average SSTs over equatorial Western Indian Ocean indicating the existence of a neutral IOD. The forecast indicates that several parts of the ASALs are likely to experience below average rainfall during the month of December including; Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. The Southeastern and coastal counties are however Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast Figure 1. November Rainfall performance likely to receive near to below average rainfall as depicted including; Kajiado, Narok, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale counties. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2020 with that in November 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of November 2020 attributed to poor performance of rainfall in the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2020 and November 2021 As at the end of November 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Wajir. The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in November 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of November 2021 is summarized in Table At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit. On the other hand, Garissa Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2021 (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) recorded the low VCI values with the ten (10) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the current dry conditions. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui- Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot and Narok that reported fair pasture condition due to the moderate light showers received as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of two consecutive failed seasons and current Poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. The moderate rains received during the first week of December have not yet had impact on vegetation condition across ASALs counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Narok West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Laikipia Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Narok West Pokot Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Samburu Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kitui Samburu Baring Garissa Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month but on a worsening trend owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kitui Taita-Taveta Narok Wajir Makueni Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana-River Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana West-Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below average or close to LTA except in Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot counties. The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October 2021. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, counties including Turkana, Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera and Marsabit reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases. Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Starvation and dehydration Kiambere and Evurore Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Turkana Diseases,dehydration and starvation Pastoral areas of Turkana North, South and East Mandera Starvation and dehydration Pastoral areas of entire county Marsabit Vector borne blood parasites Entire county Narok Predation Parts of transmara Crop production October to December (OND) long rains season onset was late and thus planted crops did not germinate forcing farmers to replant again. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River West Pokot Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Taita-Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Wajir Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Lamu Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in November as compared to the previous month of October as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2021 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 22 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the continuing rains in most of the counties. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Makueni Narok Samburu Kwale Kilifi Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Tana River Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kwale Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 99 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. The rains received during the first week of December have slightly improved water recharge however the livestock trekking distances remains above long term average. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Wajir Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT is stable conditions in most counties. The increasing maize prices versus decreasing goat prices the reason behind below average terms of trade. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, November 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Makueni Narok West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri Kwale Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. There is no county that recorded an improvement in trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of November 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Taita-Taveta are in the alert drought phase; Two (2) Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir counties including; Baringo and West-Pokot are in Normal drought phase whereas Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Turkana, Kwale and Tharaka-Nithi are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, Tana-River reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded stable trend while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains during this season. The rains received during the first week of December have not yet had positive impact on drought phase classification across ASAL counties. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Makueni Kajiado Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta Laikipia Nyeri Alarm Tana-River Kitui Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Turkana Kilifi Garissa Tharaka-Nithi Kwale Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th November 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 76.48 69.16 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 88.37 87.43 Eldama 83.15 Mogotio 74.09 62.88 North 79.18 72.34 South 65.46 Tiaty 77.42 69.33 MANDERA County 34.18 The county and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in the month of November. Banissa and Mandera North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 42.28 36.87 M East 41.19 28.13 Lafey 43.11 30.35 M North 48.75 M South 34.11 M West 48.77 34.54 TURKANA County 54.82 56.03 There is stability in VCI for the county as all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Turkana East improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness while Turkana North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. T Central 65.27 59.46 T. East 49.96 52.46 T. Loima 65.39 78.63 T. North 45.51 42.19 T. South 53.94 T. West 60.15 59.74 MARSABIT County 35.55 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 32.14 23.39 Moyale 37.51 23.13 N. Horr 36.14 25.78 36.14 WAJIR County 37.21 24.03 The County and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W East 40.89 26.96 W. Eldas 36.15 W. North 52.62 34.76 W. South 28.44 18.63 W. Tarbaj 49.26 31.88 W West 28.92 17.56 SAMBURU County 40.96 39.15 The County and one of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West remained stable at normal greenness. S East 33.41 28.13 S. North 46.33 47.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit S. West 53.33 54.95 GARISSA County 25.01 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation deficit band during the month under review with a decline in the VCI values. Lagdera worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 29.98 Daadab 32.74 25.69 34.97 25.83 Ijara 32.67 30.24 Lagdera 29.01 18.99 Dujis 32.33 22.07 ISIOLO County 29.57 18.51 The entire county and its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. I. North 30.22 19.28 I. South 28.58 17.34 TANA RIVER County 37.83 24.61 The county and all its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month of October. Bura remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 34.62 22.19 Galole 23.73 Garsen 41.27 27.21 KAJIADO County 56.18 44.79 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. The County, Kajiado East and South deteriorated form above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado North improved from normal to above normal greenness. K. Central 37.48 K. East 56.05 41.63 K. North 41.66 52.01 K. South 56.15 42.18 K. West 62.23 52.22 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 46.71 The County and Laikipia North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, while Laikipia West remained stable at above normal greenness. Laikipia East improved from moderate deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. L. East 38.42 L. North 40.23 38.67 L. West 67.72 60.13 THARAKA NITHI County 41.35 35.83 The county and Chuka recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Maara remained stable at above normal greenness while Tharaka remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Chulga 53.19 49.07 Maara 52.64 56.32 Tharaka 33.27 24.29 WEST POKOT County 74.49 72.27 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month. Kacheliba Kapenguria 82.26 78.93 Pokot South 81.87 82.71 Sigor 70.67 66.08 County 47.86 46.99 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of November with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 56.56 55.72 Mbeere North 47.22 45.83 Mbeere South 42.65 41.31 Runyenjes 59.02 61.06 KITUI County 46.65 29.68 The county and five of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of October. Kitui Central and West deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness while Mwingi North deteriorated form moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 63.71 45.22 Kitui East 49.34 30.96 Mwingi 37.92 22.59 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Central Mwingi North 27.94 17.38 Mwingi West 46.72 33.76 Kitui Rural 37.53 24.96 Kitui South 53.47 33.79 Kitui West 57.19 39.62 MAKUENI County 44.59 The county and all its sub counties recorded normal and above normal vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable and deteriorating trend during the month of November. Kaiti 82.18 66.58 Kibwezi East 39.61 Kibwezi West 59.22 42.64 Kilome 49.82 Makueni 54.69 38.79 Mbooni 77.14 County 45.72 42.43 The county and seven of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North and South deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 49.06 51.23 Central Imenti 43.88 53.33 Igembe Central 35.14 Igembe North 42.36 28.94 Igembe South 41.06 North Imenti 50.49 55.99 South Imenti 51.71 60.66 Tigania East 41.75 40.31 Tigania West 47.18 NYERI County 56.82 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni improved from normal to above normal greenness. Kieni 49.21 51.65 Mathira 54.66 60.05 Mukurweini 61.37 62.77 69.13 Othaya 64.48 68.84 49.24 KILIFI County 21.24 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and Magarini deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. The rest of the sub-counties were at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze 16.14 Kaloleni 15.74 Magarini 25.89 14.19 Malindi Kilifi-North Rabai 11.26 -0.48 Kilifi-South 16.95 -8.75 KWALE County 22.88 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 20.89 12.36 Lungalunga 22.99 15.97 Matuga 28.03 16.82 Msambweni 32.98 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th Oct 2021 VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 27.85 20.88 The County and Lamu East were at moderate vegetation deficit while Lamu West recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lamu East 41.36 28.41 Lamu West 20.03 16.53 TAITA TAVETA County 54.63 34.05 The County and its sub-counties and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Taveta and Wundanyi deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Mwatate 54.25 31.61 Taveta 60.43 39.87 51.06 31.08 Wundanyi 69.16 48.39 NAROK County 56.02 56.72 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Narok-East 44.86 42.22 Emurua Dikirr 84.65 Kilgoris 66.96 74.86 Narok-North 49.79 52.28 Narok-South 54.12 Narok-West 60.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2022": {
            "January_2022.pdf": "January 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for December, 2021 The month of December marked the cessation of the October to December (OND) seasonal rainfall. An analysis of rainfall by Kenya Metrological Department (KMD) of up to 29th December 2021 indicates that enhanced rainfall (120) was experienced over the eastern sector of the country while depressed rainfall (25) was experienced over the western sector of the country. December was characterized by isolated severe storms over the South-eastern lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Kajiado) and the Coastal strip (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi and Tana River). The highest monthly total rainfall of 315.2 mm (200.7) was recorded in Meru station. The distribution both in time and space was fairly good over the eastern sector and poor over the western sector. Figure 1 shows the December 2021 rainfall performance (). Rainfall Forecast for January 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for January 2022 indicates that; a few parts of the country will experience occasional rainfall during the first and second weeks of January and remain generally sunny and dry towards the end of the month. These include a few areas in; Southern Rift Valley (Narok), south eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) and parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Meru and Embu). Figure 2 portrays the expected rainfall pattern during January 2022. Figure 1. January Rainfall forecast Figure 1. December Rainfall performance Vegetation condition The vegetation condition index in most of the ASAL counties was either severe or extreme deficit even for the coastal and eastern sector that received above average rainfall in the month of December. This is attributed to late onset and poor performance of rainfall in the month of November. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2020 with that in December 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of December 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2020 and December December 2020 December 2021 The month of December 2021 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of November 2021.The deteriorating of vegetation condition was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following (2) counties Kilifi and Kwale county are in the Extreme vegetation deficit band. The following 17 sub counties; Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi- South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North) Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo South) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Lamu, Tana River, Wajir and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties namely; Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu, Taita taveta and Tharaka Nithi are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Five (5) counties namely; Embu, Laikipia, Meru, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Three (3) counties;- Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in December 2021 has deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, December 2020, figure 3 above. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The pasture and browse condition in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor except in Taita-Taveta that reported good browse condition attributed to the minimal OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. Further, the pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and poor rains experienced in OND across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Livestock body condition Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and Lamu which reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long and short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. The livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, December 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average. However, some counties are on an improving while others are in a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Nyeri Tana River Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Narok Turkana Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are on declining trend as compared to the last month mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5.The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Kajiado Makueni Isiolo Taita-Taveta Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Narok Samburu Turkana Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Kitui Narok Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of December, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA except in Embu, Kilifi, Narok, Taita Taveta and West Pokot counties that recorded above LTA. The goat prices are declining as result of poor body condition and thus need for close monitoring. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2021 Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, Baringo,Turkana,Garissa,Isiolo,Kitui,Laikipia, Narok ,Mandera, Samburu and Marsabit counties reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases as shown in table 7 below; Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Baringo Diseases Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Kitui Coast Fever (ECF). Anaplasmosis Nzambani, Zombe and Kanyangi wards Laikipia Drought Mukogodo West, Sosian and Olmoran wards Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Goat Prices Kilifi Narok Taita-Taveta West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Tharaka-Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Turkana Wajir Nyeri Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Wajir Baringo Garissa Kwale Marsabit Turkana Turkana Starvation, dehydration and disease Pastoral and Fisheries sites like Kaeris, Kalokol and Kalapata Mandera Starvation and diseases Entire county Marsabit severe drought and livestock disease Entire county Narok Predation Ntuka and oldonyo Narasha Samburu Starvation, Diseases Entire county Crop production March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas however, land preparations and planting were ongoing in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Embu (mbeere), and Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale. Farmers have been advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in December as compared to the previous month of November as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and increasing as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0.Maize prices Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Distances to household water points in 15 counties were above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a slight decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the slight rains received during the month of December. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Samburu Tana River Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Baringo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas has improved across the counties. 97 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Laikipia Mandera Baringo Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The below average TOT is as result of increasing maize prices compared to decreasing livestock prices(goat prices) as result of poor livestock body condition Table 11.0: Terms of trade, December 2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Tana-River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Garissa Makueni Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta Baringo Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC was stable in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption, decline in terms of trade and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Kilifi, Narok, Samburu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River counties recorded an improvement in trend Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December2021 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Taita-Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Tharaka-nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Makueni Mandera Nyeri Tana River Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Narok Samburu Tharaka-nithi Turkana Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Mandera Nyeri Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Turkana West-Pokot West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Wajir West-Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of December 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tana-River, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase. Two (2) counties; Makueni and West-Pokot are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Wajir, Isiolo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana are at an alarm phase however Kitui recorded the recovery phase. During the month under review, eleven (11) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded stable trend while ten (10) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains received during this season. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Makueni West-Pokot Alert Embu (Mbeere) Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Alarm Garissa Kilifi Wajir Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Turkana Recovery Kitui Recommended Interventions Table 14 showing recommended interventions for scale up across various sectors Sector Interventions Counties Food and safety Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress Upscale cash transfer programs Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River Livestock Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR. Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding Voluntary destocking Upscale of livestock insurance programme Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Water Water trucking Water treatment drugs Purchase new water boozers Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Health and nutrition Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Supply of essential drugs Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Surge kit activation SMART Survey to ascertain the level of malnutrition Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, west Pokot Agriculture Support household with water harvesting skills Relief foodcash transfer Support expansion of area under irrigation Embu, Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Education Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools Timely provision of school meals Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri Peace and security Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties Support local peace building and conflict resolution mechanisms Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana River, West Pokot, Coordination Update contingency plan Close monitoring of drought situation Garissa, Kilifi Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th December 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 69.16 52.34 The entire county and three of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness which was a stable trend during the month of December. The rest of the sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November. Central 87.43 74.64 Eldama 83.15 76.47 Mogotio 62.88 41.92 North 72.34 56.36 South 41.44 Tiaty 69.33 49.37 MANDERA County 34.18 24.19 The county and four of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East and South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of December. Banissa 36.87 33.79 M East 28.13 16.68 Lafey 30.35 20.25 M North 28.36 M South 34.11 19.65 M West 34.54 24.12 TURKANA County 56.03 42.89 The county and almost all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of December which was a decline for most areas. Turkana North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T Central 59.46 49.32 T. East 52.46 39.02 T. Loima 78.63 63.88 T. North 42.19 T. South 46.63 T. West 59.74 44.31 MARSABIT County 17.32 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of December which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 23.39 16.48 Moyale 23.13 N. Horr 25.78 17.45 36.14 24.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS WAJIR County 24.03 12.73 The County and five of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Wajir North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. W East 26.96 13.26 W. Eldas 12.12 W. North 34.76 21.21 W. South 18.63 W. Tarbaj 31.88 16.47 W West 17.56 SAMBURU County 39.15 29.05 The county was at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu East deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Samburu North and West recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. S East 28.13 18.92 S. North 47.63 S. West 54.95 42.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 25.01 17.45 The county and four of its Sub counties were at Severe vegetation deficit band during the month under review. Lagdera worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Ijara remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 11.21 Daadab 25.69 16.77 25.83 19.11 Ijara 30.24 25.11 Lagdera 18.99 Dujis 22.07 13.53 ISIOLO County 18.51 10.28 The county and Isiolo North recorded a severe vegetation deficit while Isiolo South recorded Extreme vegetation deficit during the month of December. I. North 19.28 11.04 I. South 17.34 TANA RIVER County 24.61 19.14 The county and two of its sub-counties were at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Garsen remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 22.19 15.44 Galole 23.73 18.98 Garsen 27.21 22.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS KAJIADO County 44.79 34.79 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kajiado North remained stable at above normal greenness while Kajiado West deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. K. Central 37.48 28.29 K. East 41.63 34.14 K. North 52.01 51.04 K. South 42.18 32.45 K. West 52.22 40.25 LAIKIPIA County 46.71 35.35 The County and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, while Laikipia North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. L. East 47.64 L. North 38.67 29.45 L. West 60.13 40.47 THARAKA NITHI County 35.83 29.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. Chuka and Maara remained stable at normal and Above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Chuka 49.07 45.75 Maara 56.32 Tharaka 24.29 POKOT County 72.27 56.91 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month with declining VCI values. Kacheliba 50.44 Kapenguria 78.93 64.23 Pokot South 82.71 77.55 Sigor 66.08 50.31 County 46.99 48.57 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of December with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. Manyatta 55.72 63.82 Mbeere North 45.83 44.07 Mbeere South 41.31 41.94 Runyenjes 61.06 66.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 29.68 19.03 The county and four of its sub-counties were at severe and extreme vegetation deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. The rest of the sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 45.22 22.93 Kitui East 30.96 16.15 Mwingi Central 22.59 Mwingi North 17.38 Mwingi West 33.76 21.01 Kitui Rural 24.96 10.17 Kitui South 33.79 26.99 Kitui West 39.62 23.75 MAKUENI County 44.59 29.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of December. Kaiti and mbooni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Kaiti 66.58 43.03 Kibwezi East 39.61 26.21 Kibwezi West 42.64 32.14 Kilome 49.82 34.42 Makueni 38.79 24.66 Mbooni County 42.43 41.62 The county and six of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Igembe Central deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Buuri 51.23 Central Imenti 53.33 Igembe Central 35.14 25.58 Igembe North 28.94 22.92 Igembe South 12.83 North Imenti 55.99 61.77 South Imenti 60.66 68.16 Tigania East 40.31 42.23 Tigania West 45.74 NYERI County 56.82 52.15 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Kieni 51.65 47.27 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness during the month of December. Mathira 60.05 50.57 Mukurweini 62.77 60.55 69.13 65.67 Othaya 68.84 66.17 KILIFI County 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and all its sub-counties was at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze -0.31 Kaloleni Magarini 14.19 Malindi -4.45 Kilifi-North Rabai -0.48 -5.27 Kilifi-South -8.75 -14.22 KWALE County 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 12.36 Lungalunga 15.97 Matuga 16.82 Msambweni -12.21 County 20.88 13.47 The County and its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of December which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of November. Lamu East 28.41 18.81 Lamu West 16.53 10.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Nov 2021 VCI-3 month as at 26th Dec 2021 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA County 34.05 22.22 The County and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS TAVETA Mwatate 31.61 20.78 the month of December. Wundanyi remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Voi deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe deficit during the month under review. Taveta 39.87 26.39 31.08 19.71 Wundanyi 48.39 35.97 NAROK County 56.72 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr and Kilgoris remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok East deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of December. Narok-East 42.22 33.63 Emurua Dikirr 84.65 75.03 Kilgoris 74.86 68.29 Narok-North 52.28 49.13 Narok-South 40.32 Narok-West 60.18 45.44 Table 16.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "February_2022.pdf": "February 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of January 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country for most of the month. However, during the third week, moderate to heavy rainfall was experienced over several parts of the ASAL counties. Isolated storms were recorded during this period over a few areas in Northeastern. For instance, Buna rainfall station in Wajir County recorded 107.0mm of rainfall on 17th January, while Marsabit Meteorological station and Gurar rainfall station in Wajir recorded 89.8mm and 58.7mm respectively on the same day. Several meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was below 75 of their January-long term averages (depressed rainfall). Lodwar meteorological station recorded 720.5 of its monthly LTM. Rainfall Forecast for February 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for February 2022 indicates that; most parts of the ASAL counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month. North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail in these areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 30C - 40C. North-eastern Region (Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit): These areas are likely to experience sunny and dry conditions. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 26C - 40C. The Coastal Strip Figure 1. February Rainfall forecast Figure 1. January Rainfall performance (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): These areas are likely to experience generally dry conditions throughout the month. However, a few areas over the south coast are likely to experience light rainfall during the month. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 31C - 35C. Vegetation condition Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2021 with that in January 2022. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse and is attributed to poor performance of the rains. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of January 2022 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2021.The deteriorating trend was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir West)) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following three (3) including; Isiolo, Wajir and Marsabit is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Nine (9) counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu January 2021 January 2022 and Taita Taveta recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Seven (7) counties including; Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2022 has badly deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2021 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Eldas, Wajir-West Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Marsabit Wajir Mogotio, Lagdera, Isiolo North, Rabai, Lungalunga, Matuga Msambweni, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Laisamis, North Horr, Samburu-East, Turkana North, Wajir- East, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Balambala, Daadab, Isiolo South, Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West, Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Kilifi-South, Kinango, Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West, Banissa, Mandera North, Mandera West, Moyale, Saku, Narok-East, Narok-South, Narok-West, Samburu-North, Samburu-West, Turkana East, Turkana South, Turkana West, Kacheliba, Sigor Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu, Taita- Taveta Baringo Central, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South, Magarini, Kitui-Central, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Laikipia-East, Lamu East, Lamu West, Igembe North, Igembe South, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Bura, Tharaka, Turkana Central, Loima, Kapenguria Vegetation greenness Above normal Kitui Makueni Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Eldama Ravine, Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Kajiado-East, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui South, Kitui West, Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West, Emurua Dikirr, Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township, Wundanyi, Galole, Garsen, Chuka, Maara, West-Pokot South Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except in Embu, Kilifi and Makueni which reported good conditions. Tana River, Meru and Kitui reported good browse conditions and fair conditions of pasture. This is due to the minimal trace OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. The current browse condition is on a stable trend as compared to the previous month whereas the pasture conditions are deteriorating as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and little rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture, and slight regeneration of browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tana River Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and West Pokot which reported good body conditions. Most of the pastoral counties reported poor body conditions for cattle as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Samburu Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Mandera Turkana West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of January are stable compared to the previous month. Declining trend in cattle prices were noted in Baringo, Isiolo, Narok, Marsabit, West Pokot and Narok owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot, Isiolo, Nyeri, Kajiado and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Isiolo Kajiado Tana River Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Kitui Makueni Taita- Taveta Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nithi Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Narok Marsabit West- Pokot Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below LTA except in Narok, Embu and West Pokot counties. The goat prices are stable and on an Improving trend as compared to the previous month of December due to the minimal rainfall showers which enabled regeneration of browse. Table 6.0: Goat prices January 2022 Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Mandera and Marsabit and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Narok reported an upward trend of livestock death resulting from predation. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Narok West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita-Taveta Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana- River Turkana Wajir Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo Mandera Makueni Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta Nithi Wajir West Pokot Crop production October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta, Embu, Makueni, Nyeri as a result of the shadow downpour experienced. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in January as compared to the previous month of December. The few counties reporting improving trend is due to relief aid and imports from neighbouring countiescountry as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Garissa Kajiado Wajir Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Tana River West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 15 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and increase in distance to household water source. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 52 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and improving trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Turkana Baringo Kitui Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a stable trend at as it is displaying improving and stable conditions in most counties. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, January 2022 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has equally improved and deteriorated in the counties as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita- Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Mandera, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Narok Samburu Kwale Tana-River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Mandera Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-taveta Tana River Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Narok Samburu Turkana West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of January 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (13) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Samburu and West- Pokot are in the alert drought phase two (3) counties; Embu, Makueni and Tana-River are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Kilifi, Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase, while Tharaka-Nithi is in the recovery phase. During the month under review, seven (7) counties reported an improving trend, three (5) counties recorded stable trend while ten (11) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana-River Makueni Alert Kitui Meru-North Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Garissa Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kwale Narok Samburu West-Pokot Alarm Kilifi Turkana Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Wajir Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th January 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.34 28.64 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month. Eldama remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Mogotio recorded severe vegetation deficit while Central Baringo deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Central 74.64 45.13 Eldama 76.47 54.24 Mogotio 41.92 North 56.36 29.96 South 41.44 22.95 Tiaty 49.37 25.74 MANDERA County 24.19 20.88 The county and three of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East and South remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Lafey deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Banissa 33.79 31.87 M East 16.68 12.47 Lafey 20.25 M North 28.36 26.33 M South 19.65 14.98 M West 24.12 20.29 TURKANA County 42.89 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate T Central 49.32 40.03 vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of December. Turkana Central remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while north deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. T. East 39.02 24.18 T. Loima 63.88 41.05 T. North 17.37 T. South 46.63 32.21 T. West 44.31 26.06 MARSABIT County 17.32 13.74 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of January which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Moyale improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Laisaimis 16.48 11.28 Moyale 21.15 N. Horr 17.45 12.81 24.63 21.79 WAJIR County 12.73 13.94 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with most remaining stable. Wajir north deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W East 13.26 11.01 W. Eldas 12.12 W. North 21.21 18.45 W. South 15.84 W. Tarbaj 16.47 12.06 W West SAMBURU County 29.05 20.49 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with a deteriorating trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S East 18.92 16.71 S. North 23.29 S. West 42.99 26.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 17.45 40.85 The county and all its sub-counties improved in the vegetation condition during the month under review. Balambala 11.21 22.67 Daadab 16.77 31.64 19.11 55.52 Ijara 25.11 52.87 Lagdera 10.05 Dujis 13.53 60.52 ISIOLO County 10.28 17.03 The county and one of its sub-counties remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. Isiolo South improved from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit. I. North 11.04 11.25 I. South 25.86 RIVER County 19.14 51.33 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Bura improved from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 15.44 41.13 Galole 18.98 56.21 Garsen 22.38 56.93 KAJIADO County 34.79 35.54 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado Central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while West deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of January. K. Central 28.29 26.68 K. East 34.14 51.84 K. North 51.04 44.74 K. South 32.45 44.83 K. West 40.25 25.78 LAIKIPIA County 35.35 25.04 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Laikipia East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. L. East 47.64 48.55 L. North 29.45 21.05 L. West 40.47 21.16 THARAKA NITHI County 29.54 55.95 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement compared to the previous month. Chulga 45.75 66.75 Maara 75.63 Tharaka 45.59 POKOT County 56.91 31.63 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a decline from the previous month. Pokot South remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness while Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 50.44 24.93 Kapenguria 64.23 37.89 Pokot South 77.55 53.54 Sigor 50.31 25.58 County 48.57 70.08 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 63.82 Mbeere North 44.07 67.44 Mbeere South 41.94 66.72 Runyenjes 66.38 78.22 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 19.03 54.79 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of January which was an improvement from the previous month. Kitui Central 22.93 Kitui East 16.15 56.65 Mwingi Central 46.75 Mwingi North 48.95 Mwingi 21.01 52.98 Kitui Rural 10.17 42.64 Kitui South 26.99 60.12 Kitui West 23.75 53.83 MAKUENI County 29.99 56.52 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement. Kaiti 43.03 60.49 Kibwezi 26.21 55.24 Kibwezi 32.14 58.73 Kilome 34.42 56.86 Makueni 24.66 54.56 Mbooni 55.92 County 41.62 57.06 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of January which was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 60.13 Central Imenti 76.93 Igembe Central 25.58 51.27 Igembe North 22.92 42.04 Igembe South 12.83 49.91 North Imenti 61.77 66.12 South Imenti 68.16 74.16 Tigania East 42.23 53.05 Tigania 45.74 63.32 NYERI County 52.15 52.64 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu and Kieni improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kieni 47.27 51.41 Mathira 50.57 50.62 Mukurweini 60.55 62.69 65.67 55.37 Othaya 66.17 50.37 KILIFI County 32.84 The vegetation condition in the county and five of its sub-counties was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was improvement from extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from extreme to normal greenness while Rabai improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze -0.31 33.51 Kaloleni 27.37 Magarini Malindi -4.45 Kilifi-North 25.24 Rabai -5.27 18.44 Kilifi-South -14.22 20.01 KWALE County 22.41 The county and all its sub-counties improved from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate and severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 24.06 Lungalunga 19.96 Matuga 19.44 Msambweni -12.21 19.44 County 13.47 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from severe vegetation deficit. Lamu East 18.81 45.25 Lamu West 10.38 41.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Jan 2022 Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 22.22 42.58 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded normal and above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as compared to the previous month of December. Mwatate 20.78 37.28 Taveta 26.39 36.11 19.71 45.46 Wundanyi 35.97 58.65 NAROK County 32.89 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review with decline in VCI values. Narok-East 33.63 23.48 Emurua Dikirr 75.03 63.06 Kilgoris 68.29 49.79 North 49.13 South 40.32 28.09 45.44 27.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "March_2022.pdf": "March 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of February 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country during the month. However, a few areas including South-eastern lowlands and parts of Northeast (Marsabit) received above average rainfall in comparison with the February Long Term Means (LTMs). Northwestern, the Coast, and most of the North-eastern regions recorded near to below average rainfall. An analysis of rainfall up to 24th February 2022 indicates that Narok received the highest monthly rainfall total of 228.9mm (340.4).Most stations recorded less than 100mm in Moyale, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Malindi. The month was characterized by a few isolated storms in different parts of the ASAL counties. Figure 1 shows the rainfall performance during the month under review. Rainfall Forecast for March 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for March 2022 indicates that Counties in the North-Western Region including Turkana and Samburu will experience Sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall expected towards the end of the month. Counties in the North-Eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to have occasional rainfall in few areas towards the end of the month. The onset of the long rains season is likely during the fourth week of Figure 2. March Rainfall forecast Figure 1. February Rainfall performance March to 1st week of April, 2022.Figure 2.0.indicates the March 2022 outlook. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in February 2021 with that in February 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse. The month of February 2022 showed slight Improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of January 2022.The improvement is associated with the off-season rains that were received in the month of December, January and parts of February. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of priority interventions. The following three counties (3); Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Ten (10) counties including; Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, February 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2022 is provided in Table 1. February 2021 February 2022 Figure 3.Maps Comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-East) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera Marsabit Wajir Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu-East), Wajir (Wajir-West, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North, South, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North), Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Narok (Narok-East), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana West), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok, Turkana Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Dadaab), Isiolo (Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia-East), Narok (Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Turkana (Turkana-South), West Pokot (West-Pokot South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except Kitui which reported good conditions. The 48 percent of ASALs recorded poor pasture condition while 30 percent of the ASAls recorded poor browse condition. The poor pasture and browse condition is as result of previous failed seasons and poor performance of the 2021 short rains as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, February 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Vegetation greenness Above normal Garissa Kitui Makueni Nyeri Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kajiado(Kajiado-East, Kajiado- North), Kilifi(Magarini),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni),Meru(Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr),Nyeri( Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable and fair to poor across most of ASAls. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Embu, Kajiado, Kitui and Taita taveta which reported good body conditions. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse as shown in table Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, February 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Baringo Mandera Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average and generally below LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous months with 70 percent of ASALs recording milk production below average. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Productio Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Makueni Baringo Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of February are stable compared to the previous month with 40 percent of the counties cattle prices below LTA as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Baringo Makueni Nyeri Taita-Taveta Nithi Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Narok Samburu Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Baringo Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West-Pokot Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were stable as compared to the previous month with Embu,Kajiado,Kilifi,Kitui,Laikipia,Meru ,Narok, Tana river, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recording prices Above LTA while Baringo,Garissa,Lamu,Marsabit,Samburu,Turkana,Wajir and Nyeri(kieni) recording prices below LTA. Table 6.0: Goat prices February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui laikipia Narok Tana-River Isiolo Kwale Makueni Taita-Taveta Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kwale Kitui Makueni Nithi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo,Turkana, Mandera and Marsabit which was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Crop production October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however harvesting was ongoing in some counties like Embu, Meru, Kitui, Makueni and Kilifi (Mangoes, pineapples and water melons) while crops were at poding and tussling stage in Taita taveta.Generally there was crop failure in marginal agricultural areas due to poor performance of the 2021 short rains season. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most countie, the price of maize were above avarage but on stable trend as compared to the previous month of January with 70 percent of ASAls reporting above avarage maize prices. The few counties of Embu(mbeere) and Meru North recorded an improvement due to the ongoing harvesting activity in the counties as demonstrated in Table 7.The current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, February 2022 Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Indicator Current status Trend WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 56 percent of counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water sources due to the rains received during the month of January and February. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Wajir Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households water sources Baringo Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Narok Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas on worsening trend as compared to the previous month.65 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being on worsening trend attributed to poor recharge as result of poor performance of the season as shown in table Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Kajiad Wajir Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Narok Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are stable but below the long-term average (LTA).78 percent of the counties ToT is below average. The below average ToT is as result of increasing maize price with decreasing livestock prices(goat).Table 10 indicates the current status of ToT across ASALS. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, February 2022 Indicato Current status Trend Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC is stable as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita-Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition in the counties was Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kajiado Tana-River Kilifi Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taveta Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kitui Kwale Tana-River Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir West-Pokot mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0 shows the children at risk of malnutrition during the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu taveta Tana River Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Taveta Tana River Nithi West Pokot Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of February 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (10) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Kwale, Laikipia, Kilifi, Lamu and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase two. Six (6) counties; Embu, Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas seven(7) counties including Baringo,Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu,Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, Five (5) counties recorded stable trend while sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of the previous seasons. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, February 2022 Drought status Trend Improving (2) Stable (5) Worsening (16) Normal Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana-River Alert Kitui Kwale Meru-North Tharaka-Nithi Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Laikipia Garissa Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th February 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 28.64 25.84 The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable severe vegetation deficit while Eldama deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Central 45.13 31.91 Eldama 54.24 42.22 Mogotio 16.22 North 29.96 26.17 South 22.95 26.38 Tiaty 25.74 23.79 MANDERA County 20.88 16.17 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation condition from moderate to severe in the month under review. Banissa 31.87 23.49 M East 12.47 10.81 Lafey 13.49 M North 26.33 20.36 M South 14.98 11.95 M West 20.29 TURKANA County 37.31 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation T Central 40.03 63.64 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above normal. T. East 24.18 33.01 T. Loima 41.05 60.16 T. North 17.37 T. South 32.21 43.89 T. West 26.06 30.32 MARSABIT County 13.74 18.92 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the month of February which is a stable trend as compared to the previous month. North Horr improved from Severe to moderate Laisaimis 11.28 Moyale 21.15 23.03 N. Horr 12.81 20.82 21.79 29.12 WAJIR County 13.94 14.89 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with most remaining stable. Wajir East deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. However, Wajir West improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W East 11.01 W. Eldas W. North 18.45 16.84 W. South 15.84 19.16 W. Tarbaj 12.06 11.02 W West SAMBURU County 20.49 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with an improving trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S East 16.71 18.85 S. North 23.29 S. West 26.29 21.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 40.85 52.18 The county improved from normal vegetation greenness to Above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 22.67 33.57 Daadab 31.64 35.23 55.52 69.69 Ijara 52.87 Lagdera 10.05 15.14 Dujis 60.52 79.25 ISIOLO County 17.03 28.05 The county improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review while Isiolo south improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Isiolo north remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. I. North 11.25 17.57 I. South 25.86 44.07 RIVER County 51.33 62.11 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Bura improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness. 41.13 52.73 Galole 56.21 65.54 Garsen 56.93 67.92 KAJIADO County 35.54 41.55 The County and its sub-county of Kajiado south remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado west and central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado East remained stable at above normal greenness while north improved from normal to above normal greenness during the month of February. K. Central 26.68 K. East 51.84 56.28 K. North 44.74 51.11 K. South 44.83 47.37 K. West 25.78 LAIKIPIA County 25.04 23.47 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was L. East 48.55 46.95 a stable trend. Laikipia East remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Laikipia North and West deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of February. L. North 21.05 19.63 L. West 21.16 19.33 THARAKA NITHI County 55.95 67.14 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement compared to the previous month of January. Chulga 66.75 73.54 Maara 75.63 75.53 Tharaka 45.59 62.04 POKOT County 31.63 28.53 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable from the previous month. Pokot South and Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal and normal vegetation greenness to normal greenness and moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Sigor deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 24.93 27.79 Kapenguri 37.89 31.25 Pokot South 53.54 Sigor 25.58 19.26 County 70.08 74.51 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 75.01 Mbeere North 67.44 72.93 Mbeere South 66.72 74.93 Runyenjes 78.22 76.01 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 54.79 68.65 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of February which was an improvement from the previous month. Kitui Central 62.96 Kitui East 56.65 73.64 Mwingi Central 46.75 Mwingi North 48.95 69.87 Mwingi 52.98 73.62 Kitui Rural 42.64 59.13 Kitui South 60.12 68.35 Kitui West 53.83 67.64 MAKUENI County 56.52 69.32 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement with improving VCI values. Kaiti 60.49 76.81 Kibwezi 55.24 68.02 Kibwezi 58.73 68.87 Kilome 56.86 72.91 Makueni 54.56 66.53 Mbooni 55.92 71.58 County 57.06 61.75 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of February which was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 60.13 57.76 Central Imenti 76.93 71.79 Igembe Central 51.27 63.98 Igembe 42.04 51.31 North Igembe South 49.91 72.73 North Imenti 66.12 63.61 South Imenti 74.16 70.25 Tigania 53.05 Tigania 63.32 66.54 NYERI County 52.64 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most having improved VCI values during the month of February. Kieni 51.41 59.27 Mathira 50.62 59.03 Mukurwei 62.69 58.82 55.37 60.87 Othaya 58.29 50.37 57.81 KILIFI County 32.84 47.05 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub- counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the month under review.This was an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from normal to above normal greenness while Rabai improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni, Kilifi North and South remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ganze 33.51 46.86 Kaloleni 27.37 33.02 Magarini 52.51 Malindi 42.59 North 25.24 33.86 Rabai 18.44 21.86 South 20.01 24.78 KWALE County 22.41 29.71 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was an improvement. Msambweni improved from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 24.06 Lungalung 19.96 26.29 Matuga 19.44 30.07 Msambwe 19.44 39.68 County 65.59 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 45.25 63.73 41.38 66.67 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY County VCI-3 month 30th Jan VCI-3 month 28th Feb Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 42.58 51.38 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as compared to the previous month of January. Mwatate 37.28 Taveta 36.11 41.93 45.46 54.18 Wundanyi 58.65 63.34 NAROK County 32.89 40.69 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Kilgoris and Narok North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 23.48 32.56 Emurua Dikirr 63.06 63.18 Kilgoris 49.79 49.48 North 40.51 South 28.09 38.85 27.18 40.31 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2022.pdf": "April 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to worsen in sixteen (16) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. Seven (7) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo and Turkana are in Alarm drought phase while ten (10) counties including Garissa, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining six (6) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere) and Tana River are in Normal drought phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of March 2022 Rainfall Performance The month of March marks the onset of the March-May (MAM) long-rains season in the country. However, the month was characterized by long dry spells over several parts of the ASAL counties. Sunny and dry conditions prevailed for most of the month over the Northeast, South Coast, and the Southeastern lowlands. Rainfall was, however, received over these areas during the fourth week of March. The Northwest and most of the Coastal Strip experienced sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Depressed rainfall was recorded over most parts of the country. The North- western and North Coast regions have not yet realized their onset which was expected during the fourth week of March to first week of April. Figure 1. March 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for April 2022 According to the Kenya Meteorological Service, the outlook for April 2022 indicates that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and Southern Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County, and parts of the Northeast and southeastern lowlands are likely to experience near average rainfall. Parts of the Northeast, Southeastern Lowlands, and the Coastal region are likely to receive below-average. The forecast also indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience near to below-average rainfall, especially during the first half of the month. Vegetation condition (VCI) Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2021 with that of March 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) March 2021 March 2022 Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall forecast The month of March 2022 showed slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2022. The improvement is associated with light sporadic showers with some areas already experiencing early onset. Two sub counties; Wajir (Wajir East), Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Generally, four counties (4); Mandera, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit while five (5) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Marsabit, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and activation of response plans. Additionally, five (5) counties including; Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while nine (9) counties namely; Embu, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, March 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1.0. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Wajir (Wajir-East), Mandera (Mandera East) Severe vegetation deficit Laikipia Mandera Samburu Wajir Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Baringo (Eldama-Ravine), Isiolo (Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado- Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado- South), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, Malindi), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in March coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta, Turkana North, Tigania-East,) Narok (Narok-North, Narok-East), Taita- Taveta (Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tana River (Bura), Turkana (Turkana-west) West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni),Meru( Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-West)Nyeri(Kieni,Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate)Tana River( Galole, Garsen),Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has not yet improved as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and late onset of the 2022 long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Makueni Meru North Taita Taveta Baringo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Makueni Meru North Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tana River Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of March remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Tana-River, Nyeri and West-Pokot reported above normal prices due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Baringo Isiolo Mandera Wajir Turkana Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly Above the LTA but below LTA in Garissa, Lamu, Marsabit, Wajir, and Nyeri. The goat prices are stable as compared to the previous month of February as shown in table 6. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui laikipia Makueni Narok Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Samburu Garissa Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi and Meru North and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. Table 7.0. Livestock Mortality County Cattle Population Deaths Mortality SheepGoat population Deaths Mortality Camel Population Deaths Mortality Overall Marsabit 32,800 4,569,647 566,500 791,029 23,520 12.64 Samburu 28,568 10.00 566,772 28,339 49,149 0.000 Turkana 13,638,397 35,167 6,000,000 0.003 Mandera 46,345 6,732,577 41,223 1,641,001 7,976 0.486 Wajir 114,785 12.85 5,422,324 102,780 1,184,083 13,389 3.079 Baringo 0.0001 1,500,453 0.006 13451.18 Crop production In the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture and Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties, land preparation and planting is ongoing in 90 of those counties in anticipation of the MAM long rains which are yet to be experienced in majority of the counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize was at a stable and worsening trend in March as compared to the previous month. Its only Meru and Lamu reporting improving trend due to the harvests from Kajiado South and low demand in Lamu as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Laikipia Wajir WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, in 12 counties, distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, the access to water for household is on worsening trend. The delayed long rains onset and the poor rainfall performance of the short rains season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. In 73 percent of counties, livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening and stable trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Makueni Narok Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In 73 percent of counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists. The TOT is on stable trend. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Tana-River Kilifi Makueni Narok Baringo (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri(Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Narok Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has deteriorated in the counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Wajir having MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Table 12.0 shows the trends of MUAC Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita-taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Tharaka-Nithi West-Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Narok Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Turkana Wajir West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties Tharaka-Nithi, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while six (6) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita-Taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas (7) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Tana-River Alert Tharaka-Nithi Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision and scale-up of food assistance and shock responsive cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements to save core breeding stock. Supportive veterinary treatments and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Active monitoring of transboundary livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks at strategic locations. Health and nutrition sector Support for integrated health outreaches, nutrition mass screening and referrals Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support for point of use water treatment. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Support incentives for school enrolment and retention. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and cascading to sub-counties and sector technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th March 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 25.84 23.08 The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Eldama remained normal vegetation greenness. Central 31.91 24.65 Eldama 42.22 36.43 Mogotio 16.22 16.21 North 26.17 24.19 South 26.38 26.44 Tiaty 23.79 20.22 MANDERA County 16.17 12.05 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the previous month. Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit Banissa 23.49 14.41 M East 10.81 Lafey 13.49 10.08 M North 20.36 14.07 M South 11.95 11.51 M West 11.44 TURKANA County 37.31 46.88 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central, Turkana south and Loima sub-counties recorded above T Central 63.64 85.67 T. East 33.01 34.37 T. Loima 60.16 74.72 normal. T. North 31.65 T. South 43.89 54.86 T. West 30.32 38.27 MARSABIT County 18.92 21.42 The county improved to a moderate vegetation condition during the month of March. Moyale recorded Severe vegetation deficit from moderate in February. Laisaimis 14.29 Moyale 23.03 18.87 N. Horr 20.82 25.56 29.12 30.88 WAJIR County 14.89 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable, However, Wajir Eldas improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W East W. Eldas 10.31 W. North 16.84 15.27 W. South 19.16 16.35 W. Tarbaj 11.02 11.08 W West 11.61 SAMBURU County 16.45 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review with a deteriorating trend. S East 18.85 13.87 S. North S. West 21.85 17.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 52.18 46.35 The county dropped from Above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 33.57 31.81 Daadab 35.23 27.97 69.69 57.93 Ijara 70.29 Lagdera 15.14 16.17 Dujis 79.25 ISIOLO County 28.05 26.79 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Isiolo North remained at severe vegetation deficit. I. North 17.57 18.72 I. South 44.07 39.12 TANA RIVER County 62.11 51.28 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness except Bura sub-county which dropped from above normal greenness to normal vegetation greenness. 52.73 44.75 Galole 65.54 51.84 Garsen 67.92 56.47 KAJIADO County 41.55 41.12 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition whereas Kajiado West improved from moderate to normal vegetation deficit. K. Central 38.01 K. East 56.28 K. North 51.11 49.53 K. South 47.37 36.34 K. West LAIKIPIA County 23.47 17.17 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit which was a deteriorating trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 46.95 32.69 L. North 19.63 13.95 L. West 19.33 15.69 THARAKA NITHI County 67.14 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable as compared to the previous month of February. Chulga 73.54 67.33 Maara 75.53 68.36 Tharaka 62.04 52.53 WEST POKOT County 28.53 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of February. Kacheliba 27.79 29.47 Kapenguria 31.25 29.34 Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Pokot South 37.21 Sigor 19.26 16.18 County 74.51 63.92 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 75.01 Mbeere North 72.93 61.84 Mbeere South 74.93 Runyenjes 76.01 70.22 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 68.65 54.57 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March which was stable as compared to the previous month. Kitui Central 62.96 Kitui East 73.64 58.72 Mwingi Central 54.05 Mwingi North 69.87 59.14 Mwingi 73.62 Kitui Rural 59.13 53.07 Kitui South 68.35 50.21 Kitui West 67.64 55.85 MAKUENI County 69.32 59.34 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable but with reduced VCI values. Kaiti 76.81 77.86 Kibwezi East 68.02 55.25 Kibwezi 68.87 56.33 Kilome 72.91 65.96 Makueni 66.53 55.17 Mbooni 71.58 68.67 County 61.75 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while 3 recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of March which was stable as compared to the previous month. Buuri 57.76 49.41 Central Imenti 71.79 60.97 Igembe Central 63.98 51.45 Igembe North 51.31 39.14 Igembe South 72.73 North Imenti 63.61 South Imenti 70.25 64.65 Tigania East 43.55 Tigania West 66.54 NYERI County 61.01 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 59.27 57.13 Mathira 59.03 65.61 Mukurweini 58.82 55.05 60.87 73.62 Othaya 58.29 67.23 57.81 58.54 KILIFI County 47.05 40.08 The vegetation condition in the county and three of its sub- counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit, with the other counties being stable as compared to the previous month. Ganze 46.86 36.26 Kaloleni 33.02 22.97 Magarini 52.51 47.38 Malindi 42.59 Kilifi-North 33.86 26.65 Rabai 21.86 13.82 Kilifi-South 24.78 17.74 KWALE County 29.71 26.69 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a stable trend. Msambweni deteriorated to moderate vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness during the previous month. Kinango 26.56 Lungalunga 26.29 23.44 Matuga 30.07 30.68 Msambweni 39.68 33.72 County 65.59 67.35 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement in values from previous month. Lamu East 63.73 64.59 Lamu West 66.67 68.94 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th Feb 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th March Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 51.38 The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a decline as compared to the previous month of February. Mwatate 60.98 Taveta 41.93 42.69 54.18 45.39 Wundanyi 63.34 49.98 NAROK County 40.69 58.26 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties improved from normal vegetation greenness to Above normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained Narok-East 32.56 47.92 Emurua Dikirr 63.18 66.28 stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 49.48 62.54 North 40.51 47.13 South 38.85 59.27 40.31 64.55 Annex 2.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Annex 3.0. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "May_2022.pdf": "May 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to bite in seventeen (17) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.1 million in February to 3.5 million currently. Eight (8) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Turkana and Laikipia are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining five (5) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Embu (Mbeere) are in Normal drought phase. While one county, Tharaka Nithi, is in recovery phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April- May) season. However, depressed rainfall was received over several parts of the ASAL counties with most of the counties receiving between 10-50 percent of normal rains with exception of parts of Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, Baringo, West Pokot, Kwale, Marsabit and Mandera receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rains. The rains were characterized by poor distribution in duration and geography. Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for May 2022 The forecast indicates that North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): The first half of the month is likely to be characterized by near to slightly above average rainfall. North-eastern Region (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo): Occasional rainfall is expected at the beginning of the month. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Tana River and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Parts of Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2021 with that in April 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of April 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of March 2022. The deterioration is associated with the late onset of long rains of 2022 in most of the ASAL area. 5 sub counties; Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi-South) Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Seven counties (7); Mandera, Kwale, Isiolo, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kitui, Kilifi, Tana- River, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in April 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, April 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Table 13. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South) Laikipia (Laikipia North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) Severe vegetation deficit Kwale Laikipia Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Baringo (Baringo-Central, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga) Laikipia (Laikipia-West) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Garissa Kitui Kilifi Tana-river West Pokot Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Eldama ravine) Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo-South) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi Central, Kitui South) Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Moyale, Saku), Meru (Igembe North,) Taita-Taveta (Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana-West) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Embu (Mbeere-South) Garissa (Fafi, Township) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado-South) Kitui (, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Makueni,) Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Mukurweini) Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana River (Garsen), West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara,) Lamu (Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti,), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-East, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta (Mwatate) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions while browse was at fair condition in most counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in the ongoing MAM season coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Narok Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has worsened as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties have deteriorated from fair to poor livestock body condition. Conversely though, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The poor to fair condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal downpours of the MAM long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Meru North Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was below average but generally on a stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year although Kwale, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Productio Garissa Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Makueni Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kajiado Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of April remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. However, the current cattle prices are below long-term average in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. In contrast, Embu Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West-Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Four counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties did report a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Makueni Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kwale Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Laikipia Mandera Samburu Turkana Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties ranged from above LTA and below LTA as compared to the previous month. The trend was however stable and improving owing to the minimal rainfall which resulting to regeneration of pasture and forage (albeit little) for goat consumption except for Isiolo county which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, Turkana and West Pokot reported mortality as a result of starvation and diseases. The rains were also a major cause of mortality as the weak animals succumb to it in counties like Mandera, Turkana and Wajir. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of Coast Marginal Agriculture counties of Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta, the ongoing trend is of land preparation as most of the planted crops wilted due to high temperatures. Most of the recently planted crops were at germination stage. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing drought resistant crops. Maize prices The prices of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks. Garissa, Kilifi and Lamu are atclose to LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Garissa Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 16 counties registered distances to water for households as currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water source. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Pokot Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 61 percent of counties recorded above LTA livestock trekking distance to water point as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Sambur Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Pokot Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Tana River Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Pokot Terms of trade Teams of Trade values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists which is 74 percent of the counties. The TOT is on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month of March. The worsening trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has been increasing rapidly due to depletion of the stocks available among ASALs. Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Health and nutrition Most counties recorded a stable trend of MUAC, others showed improvement while a few have deteriorated as compared to the previous month,with. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity and reduced food intake at household level. Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Kwale and Narok counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tana-River Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Meru-North Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Wajir West-Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Wajir Garissa Mandera Marsabit Taita-Taveta Tana-River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Nithi Turkana Pokot Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Narok Nithi Pokot Garissa Makueni Narok Kwale Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Taita- Taveta Wajir West Pokot Kitui Mandera Samburu Tana River Nithi Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni and Taita-Taveta are in the normal drought phase, whereas (8) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase with one (1) county that is Tharaka Nithi is on recovery phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (8) counties reported a worsening trend. The trend displayed is as result of the down pours experienced during the month of April. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, April 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Narok Makueni Taita-Taveta Alert Garissa Kilifi West-Pokot Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui Kwale Tana-River Alarm Baringo Mandera Turkana Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th April 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 23.08 20.18 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Baringo central and Tiaty deteriorated to stand at severe vegetation deficit in the month of April. Central 24.65 17.26 Eldama 36.43 32.51 Mogotio 16.21 13.12 North 24.19 South 26.44 Tiaty 20.22 18.86 MANDERA County 12.05 17.01 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the previous month whereas Mandera East displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. Banissa 14.41 18.93 M East Lafey 10.08 12.39 M North 14.07 16.84 M South 11.51 19.87 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit M West 11.44 TURKANA County 46.88 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above normal whereas Turkana west dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T Central 85.67 76.66 T. East 34.37 28.16 T. Loima 74.72 64.02 T. North 31.65 26.99 T. South 54.86 50.16 T. West 38.27 33.52 MARSABIT County 21.42 18.87 The county deteriorated to severe vegetation condition during the month of April. Laisaimis 14.29 11.92 Moyale 18.87 21.49 N. Horr 25.56 21.86 30.88 23.46 WAJIR County 14.76 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable, However, Wajir East improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit and Wajir North recorded moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in March. W East 13.14 W. Eldas 10.31 15.19 W. North 15.27 20.83 W. South 16.35 12.72 W. Tarbaj 11.08 15.75 W West 11.61 12.27 SAMBURU County 16.45 11.73 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review with exception of Samburu East which is at extreme vegetation deficit. S East 13.87 S. North 14.55 S. West 17.81 14.95 GARISSA County 46.35 31.18 The county dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 31.81 20.98 Daadab 27.97 20.08 57.93 35.88 Ijara 70.29 51.73 Lagdera 16.17 Dujis 36.96 ISIOLO County 26.79 17.11 The county dropped from moderate vegetation deficit to extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North 18.72 13.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit I. South 39.12 21.88 TANA RIVER County 51.28 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit except Garsen sub-county which is at normal vegetation greenness. 44.75 29.17 Galole 51.84 34.37 Garsen 56.47 39.85 KAJIADO County 41.12 36.52 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. Central 38.01 36.88 K. East K. North 49.53 44.06 K. South 36.34 36.34 K. West 45.64 LAIKIPIA County 17.17 12.46 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a deteriorating trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North is at extreme vegetation deficit as of this month. L. East 32.69 23.48 L. North 13.95 L. West 15.69 12.79 THARAKA NITHI County 44.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. Chuka 67.33 57.76 Maara 68.36 62.83 Tharaka 52.53 32.85 WEST POKOT County 25.46 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of March. Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 29.47 26.61 Kapenguria 29.34 26.89 Pokot South 37.21 35.49 Sigor 16.18 16.62 County 63.92 53.51 The county and all its sub-counties except Mbeere South recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 67.43 Mbeere North 61.84 52.17 Mbeere South 47.26 Runyenjes 70.22 64.14 KITUI County 54.57 32.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. The situation of VCI in April has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Kitui Central 43.93 Kitui East 58.72 33.69 Mwingi Central 54.05 34.01 Mwingi North 59.14 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mwingi 48.27 Kitui Rural 53.07 35.26 Kitui South 50.21 28.39 Kitui West 55.85 36.82 MAKUENI County 59.34 43.48 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a worsening trend as compared to March. Kaiti 77.86 69.97 Kibwezi East 55.25 37.58 Kibwezi 56.33 Kilome 65.96 56.02 Makueni 55.17 39.33 Mbooni 68.67 54.18 County 41.24 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 2 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April with Igembe North recording moderate vegetation deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri 49.41 39.98 Central Imenti 60.97 57.32 Igembe Central 51.45 36.17 Igembe North 39.14 24.45 Igembe South 44.37 North Imenti 49.44 South Imenti 64.65 63.71 Tigania East 43.55 38.46 Tigania West 40.13 NYERI County 61.01 55.86 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Mukurweini which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 57.13 51.21 Mathira 65.61 60.07 Mukurweini 55.05 46.43 73.62 52.54 Othaya 67.23 71.36 58.54 65.94 KILIFI County 40.08 24.49 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South deteriorated from severe vegetation deficit to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze and Kaloleni recorded severe vegetation deficit Ganze 36.26 19.68 Kaloleni 22.97 10.07 Magarini 47.38 31.77 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as March VCI-3 month as April Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Malindi 23.51 which is a great decline in status as compared to the month of March. Kilifi-North 26.65 Rabai 13.82 Kilifi-South 17.74 KWALE County 26.69 18.55 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded a decline in vegetation condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Kinango 26.56 18.33 Lungalunga 23.44 15.51 Matuga 30.68 23.29 Msambweni 33.72 23.67 County 67.35 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness except Lamu East which is at normal vegetation greenness which is a decline in values from previous month. Lamu East 64.59 49.86 Lamu West 68.94 51.92 TAITA TAVETA County The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable as compared to the previous month of March. Mwatate 60.98 50.68 Taveta 42.69 35.86 45.39 32.23 Wundanyi 49.98 39.42 NAROK County 58.26 67.25 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok East and North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during this month of April. Narok-East 47.92 55.45 Emurua Dikirr 66.28 71.79 Kilgoris 62.54 73.39 Narok-North 47.13 51.19 Narok-South 59.27 71.59 Narok-West 64.55 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "June_2022.pdf": "JUNE 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in nineteen (19) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.5 million in May to 4.1 million in June 2022. Six (6) counties namely Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Samburu are in Alarm drought phase while thirteen (13) counties including Kilifi, Turkana, West-Pokot, Kwale, Meru (North), Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Tana-River are in Alert drought phase. The remaining four (4) counties including Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May marked the cessation of the Long Rains season over most parts of the Country. In May 2022, several parts of the country experienced dry weather conditions except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, Coastal region, and a few areas over Northeast and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley that experienced occasional rainfall. Analysis of May 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 29th indicates that most parts of the country experienced below-average rainfall except Wajir which experienced above- average rainfall at 129 for two days. Narok and Lamu experienced near average rainfall at 89.4 and 84.4 respectively. All the other stations recorded less than Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall performance 75 of their May LTM (average) rainfall. The rainfall was characterized by isolated storms over parts of the country. On 1st May, Diff station in Wajir, Sericho in Isiolo and Kaibos in West Pokot recorded 68.0mm, 64.0mm, and 50.1mm respectively. Rainfall Forecast for June 2022 The forecast indicates that several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2022. However, near to above-average rainfall is expected over parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley, while the Lake Victoria Basin and South Rift Valley is likely to receive near average rainfall. The Coastal strip is likely to experience near-average rainfall tending to below-average (depressed) rainfall. Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) and Southeastern lowlands (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado) are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. However, high terrain areas in some counties in southeastern Kenya are likely to have chilly and foggy conditions on occasion. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2021 with that in May 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of May 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of April 2022.The deterioration is associated with the poor performance of the long rains of 2022. The following 3 sub counties; Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni) and Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following Seven counties (7); Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana-River and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. The following Five (5) counties including; Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Embu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, May 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Annex 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. May 2021 May 2022 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2022 Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni), Mandera (Mandera-East) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Wajir Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga), Laikipia (Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West), Marsabit (Lafey, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-South, Wajir-West), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo(Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East Kajiado South), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi),Kitui(Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui Rural, Kitui South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia(Laikipia-East), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North, Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi., Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-East), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir-North,Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal vegetation greenness Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North, Kajiado-West), Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-West, Kitui-West), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu-West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Igembe-Central, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North, Turkana-South, Turkana-West), West Pokot (West Pokot-South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, North-Imenti, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to minimal showers of rains received during the May onset which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Makueni which reported good body condition while three counties (Kajiado, Lamu and West Pokot) reported good body conditions for the goat species as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal down pours of the MAM long rains season resulting to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Meru North Narok Taita taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Makueni West Pokot Milk production Milk production was on a stable trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the previous OND rains season, the late onset and minimal showers during this month of May and persistent dry spell being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kitui Nyeri Tana River Wajir West Pokot Makueni Narok Samburu Turkana Mandera Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of May remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West- Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Narok Laikipia Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Embu, Makueni, Meru, Narok counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and leading to mortality attributable to drought effects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa. There is need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu (16.90), Mandera (11.30), Isiolo (8.01), Lamu (7.63), Marsabit (7.4) and Garissa (6.8). The reported livestock mortalities for Wajir County (5.33) are likely to increase as the drought situation assumes a worsening trend. Kajiado, Embu, Kwale, Kitui, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Makueni Narok Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi did not report any livestock mortalities attributable to drought related. The counties of Kilifi, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Meru, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Meru reported livestock mortalities within county herds ranging from 0.01 in Baringo to 1.5 in Kilifi. In Meru and Nyeri, most mortalities are from immigrant livestock from Isiolo, Marsabit and Wajir Counties. The reported mortalities as updated by the counties as at the end of May 2022 are presented in the following table; Table: Reported Drought Related Livestock Mortalities County Cattle Mortality SheepGoat Mortality Camel Mortality Overall Rate () (No.) Deaths (No.) Populatio n (No.) Deaths (No.) on (No.) (No.) Samburu 369,399 152,561 1,477,906 112,501 54,063 16.90 Mandera 863,625 138,213 4,579,722 558,752 1,016,79 11.30 Isiolo 274,055 19,000 2,209,532 24,800 307,011 105,054 8,900 66,420 4,200 Marsabit 33,105 4,569,647 580,300 791,029 Garissa 1,322,54 264,508 4,002,922 120,100 450,000 Wajir 893,040 114,785 5,422,324 102,780 1,184,08 Kilifi 210,513 9,500 244,242 37,564 Nyeri 66,000 180,000 Nyeri 6,000 4,000 10. West Pokot 4,621 1,214,285 10,500 11. Turkana 3,143,44 1,332 13,559,89 29,589 949,649 12. Laikipia 68,800 4,500 211,920 9,800 13. Meru North 291,156 14. Tana River 475,398 20,825 1,097,208 33,450 67,950 15. Baringo 518,982 1,500,453 13,451 16. Kajiado 786,082 2,425,957 2,550 17. Embu 18. Kwale 243,862 456,221 19. Kitui 324,351 1,476,390 20. Makueni 251, 385 982,888 21. Narok 1,488,91 3,619,387 22. Taita Taveta 144,700 232,300 2,480 23. Tharaka Nithi 162,984 297,634 TOTALS 13,012,8 772,284 50,481,61 1,577,50 4,891,14 Nyeri data on immigrant herds present in the county. A zero means there was no reportage and not necessarily absence of mortalities Crop production In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor with most counties reporting withering of crops, with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. In the South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties there are different outputs but majorly its plant growth at knee high stage. In Kwale and Lamu planting and weeding is ongoing same as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing, this is attributed by stressed moisture in May and poor performance of the 2022 long rains season couple with late onset and early cessation and failure of the previous season. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize was at a stable or worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month, these is as a result of the dry spell experienced in the countries from last year failure of OND rain seasons and the late onset of MAM rain seasons as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is decrease and increase in distance to household water source. The poor rainfall performance of long rains is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Kitui Samburu Turkana Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Narok Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Wajir Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale Mandera Narok Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is at a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices while maize prices has increased and thus lowering the purchasing power among pastoralists. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2022 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has either improved or deteriorated in a number of counties as compared to the previous month,with most counties recording a stable trend. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms trade (ToT) Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Garissa Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Taita-Taveta West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties; Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana, Tharaka-Nithi and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties; Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in the normal drought phase, whereas six (6) counties; Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, five (5) counties reported an improving trend, Six (6) counties recorded stable trend while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Makueni Alert Kilifi Turkana West-Pokot Kwale Meru North Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Kajiado Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Tana-River Alarm Mandera Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Support for commercial and emergency livestock offtake Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of fast-moving spare parts for strategic high convergence water facilities. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support establishment of stabilization centres for acute malnutrition cases Support for mass screening and integrated health outreaches Support for food safety monitroing Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Water trucking to schools for drinking, hygiene and preparation of meals. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Support for cross-border dialogues for access to drought survival resources. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Support for internal sectoral drought risk management coordination. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as May 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 20.18 33.01 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous month. Eldama improved from moderate to normal vegetation greenness. Central 17.26 30.16 Eldama 32.51 40.06 Mogotio 13.12 27.18 North 29.39 South 34.33 Tiaty 18.86 MANDERA County 17.01 23.91 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is an improvement from the previous month whereas Mandera East Banissa 18.93 30.94 M East Lafey 12.39 16.52 displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. M North 16.84 26.72 M South 19.87 25.64 M West 24.94 TURKANA County 38.64 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month of May. T Central 76.66 T. East 28.16 26.37 T. Loima 64.02 42.41 T. North 26.99 36.58 T. South 50.16 36.83 T. West 33.52 44.75 MARSABIT County 18.87 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of May. Laisaimis 11.92 11.97 Moyale 21.49 22.54 N. Horr 21.86 15.54 23.46 15.13 WAJIR County 14.76 18.62 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority remaining stable. W East 13.14 23.64 W. Eldas 15.19 16.95 W. North 20.83 25.38 W. South 12.72 14.46 W. Tarbaj 15.75 25.18 W West 12.27 13.63 SAMBURU County 11.73 14.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 10.96 S. North 14.55 16.86 S. West 14.95 17.84 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 31.18 27.31 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 20.98 10.69 Daadab 20.08 19.46 35.88 33.65 Ijara 51.73 47.83 Lagdera Dujis 36.96 18.07 ISIOLO County 17.11 11.57 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Isiolo South deteriorated to severe I. North 13.99 11.17 I. South 21.88 12.17 vegetation deficit. TANA RIVER County 24.19 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Garsen sub-county deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. 29.17 20.02 Galole 34.37 22.11 Garsen 39.85 29.03 KAJIADO County 36.52 33.08 The County and three of its sub-county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North and West remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. Central 36.88 30.86 K. East 31.06 K. North 44.06 43.65 K. South 36.34 20.47 K. West 45.64 45.17 LAIKIPIA County 12.46 14.28 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North and West is at severe vegetation deficit as of this month. L. East 23.48 23.04 L. North 10.29 L. West 12.79 17.54 THARAKA NITHI County 44.03 42.07 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. Chuka 57.76 Maara 62.83 57.21 Tharaka 32.85 WEST POKOT County 25.46 28.47 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of April. Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 26.61 28.38 Kapenguria 26.89 32.59 Pokot South 35.49 39.41 Sigor 16.62 18.69 County 53.51 57.44 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 67.43 61.62 Mbeere North 52.17 60.54 Mbeere South 47.26 54.31 Runyenjes 64.14 57.38 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 32.92 27.82 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of May with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating and stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. The situation of VCI in May has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Kitui Central 43.93 35.98 Kitui East 33.69 25.59 Mwingi 34.01 28.74 Central Mwingi North 34.75 Mwingi 48.27 47.19 Kitui Rural 35.26 32.15 Kitui South 28.39 22.42 Kitui West 36.82 36.43 MAKUENI County 43.48 41.79 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to April. Kibwezi East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 69.97 71.76 Kibwezi East 37.58 Kibwezi 33.41 Kilome 56.02 50.28 Makueni 39.33 46.31 Mbooni 54.18 58.55 County 41.24 38.87 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 4 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May with Igembe North recording severe vegetation deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Buuri 39.98 34.11 Central Imenti 57.32 57.51 Igembe Central 36.17 37.08 Igembe North 24.45 17.22 Igembe South 44.37 51.57 North Imenti 49.44 South Imenti 63.71 59.72 Tigania East 38.46 Tigania West 40.13 NYERI County 55.86 53.68 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Kieni which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Mukurweini improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 51.21 45.06 Mathira 60.07 60.91 Mukurweini 46.43 65.84 52.54 69.52 Othaya 71.36 65.69 65.94 57.78 KILIFI County 24.49 17.53 The vegetation condition in the county and four of its sub-counties was at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kilifi South improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini and Malindi remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 19.68 11.49 Kaloleni 10.07 Magarini 31.77 21.56 Malindi 23.51 20.54 Kilifi-North 12.61 Rabai 12.71 Kilifi-South 14.48 KWALE County 18.55 17.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Kinango 18.33 13.12 Lungalunga 15.51 Matuga 23.29 30..54 Msambweni 23.67 30.76 County 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Lamu West declined from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 49.86 45.93 Lamu West 51.92 43.05 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as April VCI-3 month as Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 23.95 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous month of April. Mwatate 50.68 27.32 Taveta 35.86 28.53 32.23 20.61 Wundanyi 39.42 29.15 NAROK County 67.25 60.23 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok-East 55.45 57.47 Emurua Dikirr 71.79 67.34 Kilgoris 73.39 61.53 Narok-North 51.19 50.72 Narok-South 71.59 64.32 Narok-West 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Distances to water Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "July_2022.pdf": "JULY 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. The number of counties in the Alarm stage of drought has increased from five (5) in May to eight (8) in June 2022. The counties in Alarm drought phase are Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo while twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. Three counties namely Narok, West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county) are in Normal drought phase. The number of people in need of assistance is 4.1 million up from 3.5 million in May 2022. Drought indicators June Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in June. Analysis of the June 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 28th June 2022 indicates that most parts of the ASALs experienced near to below average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 50mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties were also badly hit as they received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 25mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties received some off- season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving a moderate to above normal rainfall amounts. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 100mm - 150mm of rainfall. The same situation was experienced in some parts of Agro pastoral cluster; parts of Narok west and southern parts of Baringo county receiving off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for July 2022 The July 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands will be generally dry and sunny. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall performance Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sun and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of the coastal counties with exemption of the coastal line stretch of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties which are expected to receive NearAbove average rainfall. The Pastoral North West counties; especially Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is expected to stretch eastwards towards, Samburu county. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast skies with light rainfall. Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2021 with that in June 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of June 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of May 2022. The following June 2021 June 2022 Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall forecast 2 sub-counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following six counties (6); Isiolo Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit and Samburu are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita-Taveta, Tana-River and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The vegetation condition in June 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, June 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Garissa (Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado- south) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera-East, Lafey) Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana- River (Bura, Galole), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West) Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta River Wajir Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi-Central, Kitui-South), Kwale (Lungalunga), Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North ,Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana-River (Garsen), Turkana (Turkana-East, Turkana-South), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Turkana West- Pokot Baringo (Baringo-Central, Mogotio, Baringo-North, Baringo-South, Tiaty), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado-West), Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-North, Mwingi-West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe-Central, North-Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Township), Tharaka-Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North,), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Vegetation greenness Above normal Narok Nyeri Baringo (Eldama-ravine), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu- West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua-Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok- South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana-West) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2022 Livestock Production Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for a long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Tharaka Nithi Makueni Meru (North) Narok Tana River West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Mandera Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Baringo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Meru (North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2022 Livestock Body Condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor condition with exception of Kilifi which reported good body condition for cattle and Kajiado and Lamu for goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as a result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Baringo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Meru (North) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Baringo Garissa Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Meru (North) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Milk Production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, West Pokot and Meru recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season, the late onset and minimal showers during the month of May and persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk Production, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Kwale Samburu West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Narok Garissa Kitui Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tana River Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta NB: All the 270 sampled households in Turkana County reported that they did not milk their livestock since milk was barely enough for young calves, kids or lambs Cattle Prices In most counties, cattle prices in the month of June remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar period during a normal year. However, Tana-River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle Prices, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Tana River Narok Kwale West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kajiado Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Narok Turkana Wajir Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Tana River Narok Kitui Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Samburu Turkana Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Makueni Garissa Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Wajir Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following multiple failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to extreme vegetation deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. This has led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock, leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortalities in some pockets of Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, and Mandera. There is a need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. Crop Production In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor, with most counties reporting withering of crops with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. The majority of plant growth in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties is knee-high. In Kwale and Lamu, planting and weeding are ongoing, just as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing. Maize Prices In all counties, the price of maize was on a stable or worsening trend in June as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA due to depletion of stocks. Table 7.0: Maize Prices, June 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to Water for Households In comparison to the long-term average, distance to water for households in 20 counties is above the LTA. The distance between the household and the water source is generally increasing in comparison to the previous month. West-Pokot and Tana-River counties showed an improving trend. The trend in the distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Baringo Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Access to Water for Livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water sources from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 74 percent of counties were above LTA with most counties being on a worsening trend except for Samburu County, which is on an improving trend. This is illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Garissa Narok Baringo Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Narok Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Terms of Trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, June 2022 Health and Nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported a worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Garissa Nyeri West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Tana River Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Narok Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Nyeri Turkana West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Garissa Kilifi Taita-Taveta Narok Samburu Drought Phase Classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of June 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county), West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Narok are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded a stable trend, while fourteen (14) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo West Pokot Narok Alert Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Turkana Alarm Marsabit Wajir Laikipia Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Samburu Isiolo Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th June 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 33.01 45.38 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of May. Eldama improved from Normal vegetation greenness Vegetation greenness above normal. Central 30.16 47.68 Eldama 40.06 53.21 Mogotio 27.18 41.33 North 29.39 39.05 South 34.33 46.75 Tiaty 46.32 MANDERA County 23.91 24.11 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month. Mandera East improved from extreme to severe. Banissa 30.94 31.82 M East Lafey 16.52 17.96 M North 26.72 28.42 M South 25.64 24.09 M West 24.94 TURKANA County 38.64 43.33 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month June. T Central 36.11 T. East 26.37 28.78 T. Loima 42.41 39.83 T. North 36.58 45.68 T. South 36.83 T. West 44.75 62.78 MARSABIT County 15.22 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of June. Moyale maintained at moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 11.97 13.93 Moyale 22.54 22.93 N. Horr 15.54 13.86 15.13 17.42 WAJIR County 18.62 23.26 The County and most of its sub counties recorded an improvement from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness. W East 23.64 32.07 W. Eldas 16.95 16.49 W. North 25.38 26.73 W. South 14.46 W. Tarbaj 25.18 31.43 W West 13.63 SAMBURU County 14.15 19.36 The county and one of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu west and north improved to moderate vegetation deficit. S East 10.96 14.37 S. North 16.86 24.16 S. West 17.84 23.15 GARISSA County 27.31 29.58 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala worsened to extreme vegetation deficit while Fafi and Ijara showed improvement in vegetation condition. Balambala 10.69 Daadab 19.46 19.16 33.65 37.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Ijara 47.83 54.09 Lagdera Dujis 18.07 14.93 ISIOLO County 11.57 11.22 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North 11.17 11.29 I. South 12.17 11.11 TANA RIVER County 24.19 22.95 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Bura and Galole sub-counties deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. 20.02 Galole 22.11 18.65 Garsen 29.03 28.57 KAJIADO County 33.08 31.02 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded vegetation greenness above normal while Kajiado south recorded severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 30.86 24.28 K. East 31.06 25.89 K. North 43.65 55.67 K. South 20.47 K. West 45.17 47.11 LAIKIPIA County 14.28 16.35 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia East and West was at moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 23.04 22.08 L. North 10.29 10.38 L. West 17.54 24.76 THARAKA NITHI County 42.07 47.66 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of May. Chuka 56.81 Maara 57.21 64.62 Tharaka 38.79 POKOT County 28.47 38.17 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of May. Pokot South improved to above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 28.38 35.14 Kapenguria 32.59 Pokot South 39.41 55.11 Sigor 18.69 County 57.44 62.23 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 61.62 65.67 Mbeere North 60.54 60.86 Mbeere South 54.31 61.38 Runyenjes 57.38 KITUI County 27.82 31.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of June with all of its sub-counties displaying an improving trend as compared to the previous month of May. Kitui Central 35.98 35.05 Kitui East 25.59 29.86 Mwingi Central 28.74 32.84 Mwingi North 34.75 Mwingi West 47.19 48.85 Kitui Rural 32.15 35.66 Kitui South 22.42 27.95 Kitui West 36.43 40.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit MAKUENI County 41.79 42.85 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to May. Kibwezi East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 71.76 65.77 Kibwezi East 29.63 Kibwezi West 33.41 32.14 Kilome 50.28 40.96 Makueni 46.31 60.66 Mbooni 58.55 60.67 County 38.87 38.12 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while 3 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June with Igembe North recording severe vegetation deficit portraying a stable trend for the county during this month under review. Buuri 34.11 30.92 Central Imenti 57.51 62.21 Igembe Central 37.08 36.64 Igembe North 17.22 13.11 Igembe South 51.57 57.49 North Imenti 46.51 South Imenti 59.72 Tigania East 32.92 Tigania West 29.33 NYERI County 53.68 57.17 The county and four of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness except Kieni and township which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 45.06 48.12 Mathira 60.91 65.91 Mukurweini 65.84 Othaya 65.69 74.14 57.78 70.43 Township 69.52 49.27 KILIFI County 17.53 19.81 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kilifi South improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 11.49 12.85 Kaloleni 14.26 Magarini 21.56 21.72 Malindi 20.54 28.77 Kilifi-North 12.61 23.29 Rabai 12.71 25.74 Kilifi-South 14.48 25.25 KWALE County 17.15 19.99 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit, a stability in vegetation condition during the month under review. Kinango 13.12 12.79 Lungalunga 22.32 Matuga 30..54 41.67 Msambweni 30.76 38.89 County 57.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 45.93 57.25 Lamu West 43.05 TAITA TAVETA County 23.95 20.31 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of May. Mwatate and Wundanyi worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Mwatate 27.32 18.78 Taveta 28.53 24.85 20.61 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as May 2022 VCI-3 month as June 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Wundanyi 29.15 26.53 NAROK County 60.23 57.05 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Narok-East 57.47 58.56 Emurua Dikirr 67.34 Kilgoris 61.53 54.11 Narok-North 50.72 56.24 Narok-South 64.32 57.02 Narok-West Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data at a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency, or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "August_2022.pdf": "AUGUST 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 Long rains coupled with previous three failed consecutive seasons. The number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October 2022 if the short rains season performs below average. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase while Thirteen (13) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 884,464 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 115,725 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Drought indicators July Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in July. Several parts of the ASALs counties experienced below-average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 25mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 50mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties received some off-season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving moderate to above normal rainfall. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 51mm - 100mm of rainfall while some parts of Agro- pastoral cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals, with some areas receiving very high rainfall totals of 151mm. Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for August 2022 The August 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (95 percent) will be typically dry and sunny. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of coastal counties with the exemption of the coastal strip of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties. The Pastoral North West counties; especially western strip of Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall. West Pokot county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall respectively. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast conditions with light rainfall. Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2021 with that in July 2022. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of July 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of June 2022. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers experienced. However, many areas still experienced vegetation deficits. The current vegetation condition in July 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, July 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). Two (2) sub counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance while three counties (3); Isiolo, Laikipia and Mandera are in severe vegetation deficit. Eleven (11) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. Four (4) counties including; Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, west Pokot and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while five (5) counties including; Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. July 2021 July 2022 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Ganze), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia- East, Laikipia-North) Mandera (Mandera East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Moderate vegetation deficit Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir Garissa (Daadab, Township), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini) Kitui (Kitui- Central Kitui East, Kitui South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Township), Samburu (Samburu-North Samburu-West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tana River ( Bura, Galole, Garsen) Turkana ( Turkana Central, Turkana East, Turkana South), Wajir ( Eldas, Wajir-North, Wajir- South) Normal vegetation greenness Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Pokot, Turkana Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo North), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Meru (North Imenti), Narok (Narok-South), Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Wajir-East, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor) Vegetation greenness Above normal Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Narok, Nyeri Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo South, Tiaty), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana ( Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, West-Pokot South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition was stable as compared to previous month of June. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Kilifi and Lamu counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, July 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Turkana Wajir Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Milk production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Baringo, Kilifi, Mandera, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni and Tharaka Nithi County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Wajir Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of July remained stable compared to the previous month. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Tana River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand in the livestock market amidst to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Narok Tana River West Pokot Makueni Kilifi Kitui Kwale Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kitui Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Nyeri Samburu Turkana Kilifi Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improvement of trend in Garissa and Narok while the counties of Samburu, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Tana River Narok Garissa Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Garissa Narok Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kwale Tana River Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation condition deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortality. The livestock mortalities reported so far, are within normal ranges in the ASAL counties except Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa which have registered slightly above normal mortality rates. Crop production In the CMA counties, the crops that were at harvesting stage are in poor sate and thus farmers may not realize any harvest while there were no crops in counties like Nyeri and Makueni. Weeding was ongoing in Mixed Farming Zone of Kwale County. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in July as compared to the previous month. The current maize prices are above LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, July 2022 WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties reported above LTA distances to water for households while 3 counties are at LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance from households to water sources. No county showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kilifi Kitui Wajir Isiolo Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties as illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Garissa Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kitui Kwale West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Narok West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Wajir Tana River Kwale Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Makueni Garissa Nyeri West Pokot Turkana Kwale Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Isiolo Narok Nyeri West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Garissa Kilifi Taita-Taveta Narok Samburu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including Embu Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River and Kwale are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in the Normal drought phase. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, July 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Wajir Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th July 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 45.38 51.89 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of June. Central 47.68 57.51 Eldama 53.21 64.44 Mogotio 41.33 47.72 North 39.05 45.43 South 46.75 51.14 Tiaty 46.32 52.21 MANDERA County 24.11 28.32 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of June. Lafey improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 31.82 31.85 M East 19.04 Lafey 17.96 26.14 M North 28.42 30.26 M South 24.09 31.66 M West 24.77 TURKANA County 43.33 43.13 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month July. T Central 36.11 32.25 T. East 28.78 29.18 T. Loima 39.83 39.29 T. North 45.68 43.31 T. South 33.45 T. West 62.78 65.63 MARSABIT County 15.22 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of June. Moyale worsened to severe vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness Laisaimis 13.93 16.37 Moyale 22.93 19.77 N. Horr 13.86 13.77 17.42 20.56 WAJIR County 23.26 29.14 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 32.07 41.08 W. Eldas 16.49 20.77 W. North 26.73 29.54 W. South 27.18 W. Tarbaj 31.43 39.33 W West 24.01 SAMBURU County 19.36 22.22 The county improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 14.37 15.97 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit S. North 24.16 S. West 23.15 25.66 GARISSA County 29.58 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala was constant at extreme vegetation deficit. Balambala Daadab 19.16 21.22 37.42 40.08 Ijara 54.09 55.58 Lagdera Dujis 14.93 20.97 ISIOLO County 11.22 12.29 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 11.29 12.95 I. South 11.11 11.27 TANA RIVER County 22.95 26.88 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Bura and Galole sub-counties improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. 22.69 Galole 18.65 23.76 Garsen 28.57 32.38 KAJIADO County 31.02 27.25 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east worsened to severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 24.28 17.78 K. East 25.89 19.66 K. North 55.67 60.26 K. South 17.62 K. West 47.11 42.91 LAIKIPIA County 16.35 19.41 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia worsened to severe vegetation deficit. L. East 22.08 19.75 L. North 10.38 12.59 L. West 24.76 32.02 THARAKA NITHI County 47.66 46.53 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of June. Chuka 56.81 58.67 Maara 64.62 64.64 Tharaka 38.79 36.16 WEST POKOT County 38.79 46.65 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of June. Pokot South improved to normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 38.17 43.31 Kapenguria 35.14 52.41 Pokot South 64.56 Sigor 55.11 37.27 County 56.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Manyatta 62.23 62.27 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mbeere North 65.67 51.09 Mbeere South 60.86 54.36 Runyenjes 61.38 67.64 KITUI County 31.92 33.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of July. Kitui central, Mwingi north and Kitui rural showed a worsening trend Kitui Central 35.05 31.47 Kitui East 29.86 31.94 Mwingi Central 32.84 35.74 Mwingi North Mwingi 48.85 42.69 Kitui Rural 35.66 33.06 Kitui South 27.95 33.36 Kitui West 40.85 37.46 MAKUENI County 42.85 41.32 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to June. Kilome deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 65.77 57.55 Kibwezi East 29.63 29.38 Kibwezi 32.14 32.31 Kilome 40.96 28.64 Makueni 60.66 63.49 Mbooni 60.67 County 38.12 34.01 The county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 30.92 28.06 Central Imenti 62.21 58.84 Igembe Central 36.64 31.13 Igembe North 13.11 10.36 Igembe South 57.49 51.78 North Imenti 46.51 38.56 South Imenti 64.99 Tigania East 32.92 27.07 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as June 2022 VCI-3 month as July 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania West 29.33 22.72 NYERI County 57.17 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni and township improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 48.12 56.88 Mathira 65.91 65.53 Mukurweini 53.53 Othaya 74.14 59.11 70.43 48.77 Township 49.27 52.33 KILIFI County 19.81 27.22 The vegetation condition in the county deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kilifi South improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 12.85 18.87 Kaloleni 14.26 22.36 Magarini 21.72 26.78 Malindi 28.77 39.73 Kilifi-North 23.29 44.44 Rabai 25.74 41.13 Kilifi-South 25.25 46.61 KWALE County 19.99 21.69 The county recorded an improvement from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kinango 12.79 12.21 Lungalunga 22.32 26.84 Matuga 41.67 47.53 Msambweni 38.89 43.52 County 57.28 69.65 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 57.25 67.49 Lamu West TAITA TAVETA County 20.31 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of June. Mwatate and Voi improved to moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Mwatate 18.78 22.44 Taveta 24.85 25.07 22.17 Wundanyi 26.53 28.66 NAROK County 57.05 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Narok-East 58.56 56.88 Emurua Dikirr 65.53 Kilgoris 54.11 53.53 Narok-North 56.24 59.11 Narok-South 57.02 48.77 Narok-West 52.33 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "September_2022.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the failure of four consecutive seasons with the forecast for OND predicting the likely of fifth season under performing. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase to 4.35Million by October 2022. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit are under Alarm drought phase while Ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Worsening household food security situation has resulted in acute malnutrition rates noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. 2. Drought situation based on key indicators 2.1 August Rainfall Performance Analysis of the August 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced near to below-average rainfall (less than 60mm of rainfall). The PNE1 counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received traces of rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The SEMA2 counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range of (20mm - 60mm). The CMA3 counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between (10mm - 40mm). Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received July-August rainfall that was normal to above normal in the range of 80mm - 200mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot South receiving very high rainfall totals of 200mm. 1 Pastoral North Eastern 2 South Eastern Marginal Agriculture 3 Coast Marginal Agriculture Figure 1. August 2022 Rainfall Rainfall Forecast for OND Season rainfall outlook October November and December (OND) season is illustrated in figure 2. ASAL counties mainly fall under zone2 and zone3. Zone3 which comprises of PNE, SEMA, and CMA livelihood zones which includes; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are likely to recieve below average (highly depressed) rainfall. The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 65 with some chances of Near Normal at 20 and Above normal at 15. Zone2 which includes Pastoral North West (PNW) and AGP livelihood counties; Turkana, parts of Marsabit, parts of Samburu, West Pokot, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall (Below Average Rainfall). The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 45 with some chances of Near Normal at 25 and Above normal at 20. The south western parts of West Pokot county bordering Mount Elgon is forecasted to receive Near Average Rainfall. Generally, the OND season is forecasted to be a failed season just like its predicessors which calls for anticipatory action in the ASAL counties. 2.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2021 with that in August 2022. Generally, the 2022 index indicates low values in the counties of Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa and Tana River. Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) August 20212022 The month of August 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in the coast marginal agriculture counties of Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta and parts of south east marginal agriculture counties of Tana River. Mandera, Wajir and Turkana. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers of June-July-August season of 2022. The following 1 sub-county Nyeri (Township) is in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following three counties (3); Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit while twelve (12) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui, Meru, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Makueni, Nyeri and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following two (2) counties including; Baringo and Lamu, recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, August 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. August 2021 August 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Nyeri (Nyeri town) Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado South), Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2022 2.3 Livestock production 2.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to failed MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu East) Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera Wajir Garissa Tana river Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kwale Taita taveta Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West), Turkana (Turkana East, Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir South, Wajir West), Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu West), Garissa (Daadab, Dujis), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Kajiado North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui West), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Narok (Narok South). Normal vegetation greenness Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Narok Baringo (Mogotio), Embu (Manyatta), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado West), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Malindi), Kitui (Kitui South, Mwingi Central), Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera South), Meru (Igembe South), Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana South, Turkana Central) Wajir (Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Narok (Narok East, Kilgoris, Narok West) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo Baringo (Baringo central, Baringo north, Baringo south, Eldama ravine, Tiaty), Embu (Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kilifi (Kilifi South, Rabai), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Tharaka Nithi (Maara), Turkana (Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok North). Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita taveta Turkana Wajir Marsabit Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Marsabit Kajiado Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo Kilifi West Pokot 2.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition reported slight improvement as compared to previous month of July. However, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair-to- poor with the exception of Kilifi and Kwale counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair-to-poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Mandera Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir Marsabit Baringo Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi west Pokot Kilifi Kwale Isiolo Mandera Samburu Tana river Turkana Wajir Marsabit Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Kwale 2.3.3 Milk production The current milk production is below average as compared to normal year with only Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties at above LTA. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. Some counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir 2.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of August remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5 shows the trend of cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Kwale Tana River West Pokot Narok Makueni Laikipia Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok West Pokot Kitui Kajiado Nyeri Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana 2.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were at LTA. Majority of the trend was however stable and worsening. The counties on improvement of trend were Baringo, Kitui, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot. The following counties, Embu, Garissa, Nyeri, Wajir and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Kitui Narok Baringo Garissa Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Baringo Kitui Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Garissa Nyeri Tana River Wajir 2.3.6 Livestock Mortality The counties of Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa have registered slightly above normal mortality rates as drought conditions persisted in ASAL counties following failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores leading to mortality attributed to drought effects. 2.4 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties, harvesting was ongoing in parts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta and South east marginal agriculture counties of Kitui and Makueni. However harvests are below normal. Land preparation is ongoing across the counties. 2.4.1 Maize prices In the counties of Baringo, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, West Pokot, Marsabit and Nyeri, the price of maize was at an improving trend in the month under review while eight registered stable prices as the remaining five counties showed worsening prices compared to the previous month, as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2022 2.5 WATER ACCESS 2.5.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. Five counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Samburu and Tharaka Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana 2.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties are above LTA with most counties being at worsening trend except for Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot and Makueni counties which are at improving trend. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Garissa Kajiado Kitui Tana River Wajir Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Taita Taveta Turkana 2.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) except Nyeri an indication of low purchasing powers across the households. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Nyeri Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Marsabit Narok West Pokot Isiolo Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir 2.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Marsabit counties reported a worsening trend that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Samburu Narok West-Pokot Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kitui Taita-Taveta Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir 3.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of August 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Lamu, West Pokot Baringo Alert Kwale Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Alarm Laikipia Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th August 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 51.89 52.79 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of July. Mogotio maintained at normal vegetation greenness. Central 57.51 Eldama 64.44 68.68 Mogotio 47.72 49.57 North 45.43 50.89 South 51.14 50.74 Tiaty 52.21 50.54 MANDERA County 28.32 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of July. Mandera east improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Banissa 31.85 35.78 M East 19.04 21.25 Lafey 26.14 30.52 M North 30.26 33.73 M South 31.66 39.54 M West 24.77 32.62 TURKANA County 43.13 37.56 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at normal vegetation condition during the month August. T Central 32.25 36.14 T. East 29.18 30.57 T. Loima 39.29 33.32 T. North 43.31 32.45 T. South 33.45 37.97 T. West 65.63 53.05 MARSABIT County 15.57 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of August. Saku worsened to severe vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness Laisaimis 16.37 16.42 Moyale 19.77 17.98 N. Horr 13.77 14.27 20.56 19.31 WAJIR County 29.14 31.79 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 41.08 W. Eldas 20.77 20.98 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit W. North 29.54 35.46 W. South 27.18 29.84 W. Tarbaj 39.33 W West 24.01 20.84 SAMBURU County 22.22 19.69 The county improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East 15.97 S. North S. West 25.66 23.64 GARISSA County 30.61 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala and Lagdera improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 13.92 Daadab 21.22 23.71 40.08 Ijara 55.58 50.22 Lagdera 11.26 Dujis 20.97 25.92 ISIOLO County 12.29 13.77 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 12.95 12.92 I. South 11.27 15.08 RIVER County 26.88 30.92 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. 22.69 30.28 Galole 23.76 28.34 Garsen 32.38 33.09 KAJIADO County 27.25 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 17.78 16.91 K. East 19.66 17.96 K. North 60.26 27.29 K. South 17.62 19.53 K. West 42.91 36.51 LAIKIPIA County 19.41 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit L. East 19.75 16.45 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was an improvement. Laikipia West improved normal vegetation greenness. L. North 12.59 12.84 L. West 32.02 THARAKA NITHI County 46.53 41.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of July. Chuka 58.67 48.09 Maara 64.64 56.89 Tharaka 36.16 33.31 POKOT County 46.65 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was stable when compared with the previous month of July. Kacheliba 43.31 46.56 Kapenguria 52.41 57.04 Pokot South 64.56 61.38 Sigor 37.27 38.05 County 56.17 30.55 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was deteriorating trend. Manyatta 62.27 38.13 Mbeere North 51.09 27.12 Mbeere South 54.36 26.46 Runyenjes 67.64 45.16 KITUI County 33.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Kitui Central 31.47 22.16 Kitui East 31.94 Mwingi Central 35.74 36.99 Mwingi North 30.06 Mwingi West 42.69 Kitui Rural 33.06 Kitui South 33.36 37.93 Kitui West 37.46 28.49 MAKUENI County 41.32 36.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to July. Kaiti 57.55 36.12 Kibwezi East 29.38 30.68 Kibwezi West 32.31 31.97 Kilome 28.64 20.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Makueni 63.49 52.37 Mbooni 46.12 County 34.01 32.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Buuri 28.06 27.62 Central Imenti 58.84 54.11 Igembe Central 31.13 29.75 Igembe North 10.36 14.81 Igembe South 51.78 42.78 North Imenti 38.56 31.74 South Imenti 64.99 65.76 Tigania East 27.07 Tigania West 22.72 26.11 NYERI County 40.07 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Township worsened from above normal vegetation greenness to extreme vegetation deficit. Kieni 56.88 43.96 Mathira 65.53 28.82 Mukurweini 53.53 42.43 Othaya 59.11 43.26 48.77 48.16 Township 52.33 KILIFI County 27.22 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate vegetation greenness. Ganze 18.87 21.84 Kaloleni 22.36 32.59 Magarini 26.78 27.81 Malindi 39.73 37.62 Kilifi-North 44.44 48.81 Rabai 41.13 51.13 Kilifi-South 46.61 48.81 KWALE County 21.69 32.42 The county recorded a constancy at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 12.21 Lungalunga 26.84 45.06 Matuga 47.53 47.79 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 24th VCI-3 month as at 28th August Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Msambweni 43.52 County 69.65 71.51 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 67.49 68.34 Lamu West 73.34 TAITA TAVETA County 24.52 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of July. Mwatate 22.44 23.14 Taveta 25.07 22.09 22.17 25.44 Wundanyi 28.66 NAROK County 42.13 There was deterioration in vegetation cover as the county normal vegetation greenness from Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Narok-East 56.88 43.19 Emurua Dikirr 65.53 56.29 Kilgoris 53.53 46.55 Narok-North 59.11 52.51 Narok-South 48.77 34.68 Narok-West 52.33 40.48 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Distances to water Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "October_2022.pdf": "OCTOBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continues to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four successive failed rains seasons. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance currently stands at 4.35 million based on 2022 long rains food and nutritional security assessment report. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6- 59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. NB For detailed county analysis, please visit the NDMA website www.ndma.go.ke 2. Key indicators performance 2.1 September Rainfall Performance Analysis of the September 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that the Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received trace rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The South Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received trace rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received (25). Some parts of Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received JJA rainfall that was normal in the range of 101mm - 125mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot south, Eldama ravine, Narok West and Kilgoris receiving high rainfall totals between 176 - 200mm. Figure 1. September 2022 Rainfall Performance 2.2 Rainfall Forecast for October The rainfall outlook for the month of October is illustrated in figure 2. Most counties including Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive highly depressed rainfall. Pocket areas in the counties of Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado and Narok are forecasted to recieve Near average rainfall. During the month of October, Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Laikipia and Narok are forecasted to received Near average with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is in tandem with expected timely onset of OND rainfall season in the western parts of Kenya. Figure 1. October 2022 Rainfall forecast 2.3 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) September 20212022 The month of September 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to August 2022.The deterioration is associated with poor performance of off- season showers of June-July-August (JJA) season in most ASAL counties except for good performance in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties. No countysub-county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties namely Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit while nine (9) counties including; Mandera, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following nine (9) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Kitui, Kwale and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in September 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in September 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. September 2021 September 2022 Table 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2022 3. Livestock production 3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to minimal precipitation in the rangelands. The current pasture and browse conditions are estimated to last for less than one month in livestock concentration grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse was however good in Baringo, West Pokot, and Lamu counties. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit, Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Kajiado (Central), Kilifi (Ganze), Laikipia (North), Mandera (East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku, Laisamis, North Horr), Meru (Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (East), Wajir (West, Eldas). Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta Embu (Mbeere South), Garissa (Township, Fafi, Daadab), Kajiado (East, North, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (East), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kilome), Mandera (Lafey, Banissa, North, West, South), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Wundanyi, Taveta), Tana River (Bura, Garsen, Galole), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, North), Wajir (North, South), Narok (South, East). Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (West), Kilifi (North), Kitui (South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West) Meru (Igembe South, North Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu (East), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (East, Central), Wajir (Tarbaj, East), West Pokot (Sigor) Narok (North, West). Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama Ravine, South, Tiaty), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga Lunga), Lamu (East, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (South Imenti, Central Imenti), Turkana (South, West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris). Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Meru (North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Nyeri Samburu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Meru (North) Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Baringo West Pokot 3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition ranged between fair to poor across ASAL counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions except for Kilifi and West Pokot counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kilifi West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi West Pokot 3.3 Milk production Milk production was below normal due to the poor forage regime in the counties experiencing drought situation. The JJA season did not generate adequate showers for minor pasture and browse generation. However, Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties recorded above the LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Tharaka Nithi Makueni Laikipia West Pokot Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Samburu West Pokot Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Mandera Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi NB: Turkana had zero readings 3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices remained unstable compared to the previous month owing to poor livestock body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Narok and Tana River reported above the LTA due to increased demand of livestock. Five counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas eight counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Makueni Narok Tana River West Pokot Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kwale West Pokot Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were within the long-term averages. However, majority of the counties hard hit by drought recorded below LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improving trend in Kajiado and Kwale. The following counties, Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Kwale Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Tana River Tana River Wajir Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 3.6 Livestock Mortality Diminished pasture and water resources in most of the ASAL counties led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and accelerating mortalities across all species. High livestock mortalities have been reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa counties. 3.7 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. In the SEMA counties: In Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties, land preparation had started in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along the main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva, Thua Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. 3.7.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASAL counties were high and above average affecting the purchasing power of households.The prices were on increasing trend and thus require close monitoring.As compared to similar period,the prices were unstable as demonstrated in Table 7. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2022 4. WATER RESOURCE ACCESS 4.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties have their distances to water for households currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. The current return distance ranges from 3 kilometers in Baringo to 16.3 kilometers in Mandera as compared to an average LTA of 5 kilometers normally for arid counties. West Pokot had the lowest trekking distance of 2.6 kilometers as compared to Kajiado that had the highest of 8.1 kilometers for Semi-arid counties. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicat Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kajiado Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Wajir Isiolo Kitui Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Makueni Narok West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Garissa Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Samburu Kilifi Kitui Baringo Isiolo West Pokot Baringo Makueni Narok West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir 4.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is increasing with Marsabit having the highest livestock trekking distance at 38.9 kilometers and Baringo with lowest at 8.5 kilometers for Arid counties. Meru North had the highest livestock return trekking distance as compared to Narok and West Pokot that had lowest trekking distance for Semi-arid counties. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Garissa Samburu West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Narok Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu West Pokot Turkana Tana River Nyeri Mandera Garissa Isiolo Kwale Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kitui 5. Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). Laikipia had the most favorable terms of trade for arid counties at 52 percent while Turkana had the most unfavorable terms of trade at 16.1percent for arid counties. Kilifi had the most favorable terms of trade at 82 percent and Nyeri unfavorable terms of trade at 30 percent for Semi-arid counties. The unfavorable terms of trade point to worsening drought conditions. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Samburu Baringo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Narok West Pokot Garissa Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Isiolo Marsabit Nyeri 6. Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Marsabit, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Samburu, Tana River, Mandera recorded serious to extremely critical situation mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level, crisis coping strategies being employed by households and poor dietary diversity. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri West-Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Kilifi Narok Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita-Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kwale Samburu Kitui Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Garissa 7. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of September 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Pokot Alert Kwale Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir, Emergency Recovery 8. Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Commercial and slaughter off-take Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEX 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th September 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.79 63.98 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mogotio improved to above normal vegetation greenness. Central 66.68 Eldama 68.68 68.42 Mogotio 49.57 60.84 North 50.89 65.93 South 50.74 61.82 Tiaty 50.54 63.59 MANDERA County 28.02 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mandera east worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Banissa 35.78 29.18 M East 21.25 16.19 Lafey 30.52 22.76 M North 33.73 27.51 M South 39.54 34.46 M West 32.62 28.64 TURKANA County 37.56 41.54 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at normal vegetation condition during the month September. T Central 36.14 T. East 30.57 46.91 T. Loima 33.32 34.69 T. North 32.45 T. South 37.97 53.19 T. West 53.05 50.65 MARSABIT County 15.57 13.52 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of September. Laisaimis 16.42 14.85 Moyale 17.98 N. Horr 14.27 13.94 19.31 17.93 WAJIR County 31.79 27.91 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Eldas and Wajir West sub county worsened to severe vegetation deficit. W East 38.21 W. Eldas 20.98 W. North 35.46 30.69 W. South 29.84 27.33 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit W. Tarbaj 40.75 W West 20.84 15.74 SAMBURU County 19.69 21.46 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit from Moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S East S. North S. West 23.64 35.88 GARISSA County 30.61 27.14 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Fafi and Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 13.92 16.24 Daadab 23.71 22.36 30.88 Ijara 50.22 41.69 Lagdera 11.26 12.35 Dujis 25.92 26.82 ISIOLO County 13.77 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of September. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North 12.92 I. South 15.08 15.54 RIVER County 30.92 31.17 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of September. 30.28 32.01 Galole 28.34 29.09 Garsen 33.09 31.76 KAJIADO County 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of September. K. Central 16.91 18.35 K. East 17.96 23.77 K. North 27.29 27.55 K. South 19.53 K. West 36.51 37.12 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West also remained at normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North worsened to Severe Vegetation greenness. L. East 16.45 24.22 L. North 12.84 L. West 46.07 THARAKA NITHI County 41.03 38.38 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of August. Chuka 48.09 41.68 Maara 56.89 47.94 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tharaka 33.31 34.09 POKOT County 59.31 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of August. Kacheliba 46.56 Kapenguria 57.04 67.98 Pokot South 61.38 68.63 Sigor 38.05 49.21 County 30.55 36.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 38.13 35.85 Mbeere North 27.12 38.91 Mbeere South 26.46 32.93 Runyenjes 45.16 42.55 KITUI County 35.04 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the month of September. Kitui Central 22.16 24.82 Kitui East 34.36 Mwingi Central 36.99 35.32 Mwingi North 30.06 29.87 Mwingi West 40.81 Kitui Rural 30.31 Kitui South 37.93 37.78 Kitui West 28.49 32.17 MAKUENI County 36.21 39.95 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to August. Kaiti 36.12 40.65 Kibwezi East 30.68 32.73 Kibwezi West 31.97 36.51 Kilome 20.29 25.98 Makueni 52.37 55.49 Mbooni 46.12 51.19 County 32.99 38.13 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the last month. Buuri 27.62 34.19 Central Imenti 54.11 Igembe Central 29.75 Igembe North 14.81 19.69 Igembe South 42.78 North Imenti 31.74 43.78 South Imenti 65.76 65.19 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania East 34.95 Tigania West 26.11 33.09 NYERI County 40.07 38.94 The county and one of its sub counties noted a stability at normal vegetation greenness. Township improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Kieni 43.96 42.17 Mathira 28.82 27.15 Mukurweini 42.43 38.54 Othaya 43.26 43.93 48.16 45.12 Township 11.91 KILIFI County 25.45 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of September. Ganze worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 21.84 18.85 Kaloleni 32.59 33.93 Magarini 27.81 23.47 Malindi 37.62 Kilifi-North 48.81 Rabai 51.13 50.22 Kilifi-South 48.81 52.97 KWALE County 32.42 The county recorded an improvement to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kinango 27.62 Lungalunga 45.06 52.24 Matuga 47.79 45.46 Msambweni 49.73 County 71.51 61.93 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu East 68.34 58.22 Lamu West 73.34 64.08 TAITA TAVETA County 24.52 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of August. Mwatate 23.14 24.26 Taveta 22.09 27.96 25.44 27.72 Wundanyi 33.57 NAROK County 42.13 41.46 There was constancy in vegetation cover in the county at normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Narok-East 43.19 33.46 Emurua Dikirr 56.29 65.18 Kilgoris 46.55 52.98 Narok-North 52.51 39.72 Narok-South 34.68 31.83 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Narok-West 40.48 47.59 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Annex 3. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "November_2022'.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to deteriorate in twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four failed consecutive seasons and late onset and poorly distributed 2022 short rains season. The number of people in need of food assistance stands at 4.35 million currently, and the impacts of the anticipated short rains 2022 is expected to lead to increase or decrease of these numbers. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are classified under Alarm drought phase, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 October Rainfall Performance Figure 1.0: Drought Phase Classification Analysis of the October 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the October long term mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 25 of the October LTM. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received very minimal rainfall with Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties receiving less than 5. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received little rains. Lamu County received moderate rainfall between 51 75 . Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off season September-November (SON) rainfall between 76 to 100 of the October LTM, with some areas especially Pokot south receiving 101 110 LTM of the October rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. Figure 2.0. October 2022 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for November. The rainfall outlook for the month of November is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive increased probability of depressed rainfall. Parts of PNW, SEMA and AGP including; Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado, West Pokot, Baringo and Narok are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall during the month of November. Other spots in arid and semi-arid counties are likely to experience typically very dry conditions. These includes; parts of Kitui and Tana River, central parts of Isiolo County and parts of Kilifi and Taita-Taveta counties. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for November 2022. Figure 3. November 2022 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 considers the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2021 and October 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2021 was better than that of 2022 same period. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 20212022 The month of October 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in some parts of the ASALs. The slight improvement is associated with off-season showers of September October November (SON) season mostly in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties stretching all the way to Narok and Kajiado counties. None of the countysub county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following four counties (4); Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following seven (7) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot, Embu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in October 2021 as shown in October 2021 October 2022 (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2022 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi, Marsabit Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Ganze), Kajiado (Central), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab, Balambala) Moderate vegetation deficit Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Kwale, Taita Taveta Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Kajiado (East, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North), Kitui (Rural, West, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (North) Makueni (Kilome), Mandera (West, South) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (North), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Embu (Mbeere South), Kajiado (North, West), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga Lunga, Matuga) Laikipia (East), Lamu (East), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini) Samburu (West) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Loima, Central, West) Wajir (East), Narok (East, North, South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo, West Pokot, Embu, Narok Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, Tiaty) Embu (Runyenjes) Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Lamu (West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya, Tetu), Turkana (South, East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok West) normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture and browse deteriorated to Fair condition in West Pokot, Lamu and Baringo which were in good state during the last month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kajiado Baringo West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Narok Laikipia West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, 65 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for cattle while 56 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for goats as shown in Table 3 Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kitui Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kitui Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Laikipia Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month under review was on a decreasing trend as compared to the previous month of September in most of the counties. Only Narok County recorded an improving trend. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Makueni and West Pokot counties recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Narok Garissa Isiolo Kitui Wajir West Pokot Makueni Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Mandera NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices 69 percent of the counties recorded cattle prices below normal with 11 counties reporting worsening trend. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Garissa, Tana River, Kwale and Lamu counties reported above normal LTA but with decreasing trend due to deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties including; Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni and Marsabit reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Tana River Kwale West Pokot Narok Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Samburu Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with 56 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices with a stable and worsening trend except for Lamu which recorded an improvement trend. Consequently, 10 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Garissa Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri 1.4 Crop production CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of the seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. SEMA counties: In Kitui County, land preparation had started in few farms in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Makueni county, the farms were clear and farmers were busy preparing them in anticipation of the October- November-December short rains season. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Tharaka Nithi county, on-farm activities during the month of September were land preparation in readiness for the short rain seasonal onset. 1.4.1 Maize prices In West pokot, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while in the remaining counties 16 were at Stable and 6 recorded improving trend as compared to the previous month. as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, October 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 2.6 kilometers (km) and 7.7 km with West Pokot recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Garissa Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Baringo Kajiado Laikipia West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kwale West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Baringo Kilifi Kitui Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Makueni Mandera Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in the respective counties. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 6.7 km and 40 kilometers(km) with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.7 km to 8.3 km with Narok recording the lowest and Kitui highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Kajiado Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Turkana West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit Baringo Kitui Kwale Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Makueni Mandera Nyeri 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Kwale West Pokot Baringo Laikipia West Pokot Mandera Tana River Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Nyeri Samburu Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Samburu, Turkana, West-Pokot recorded MUAC below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The counties of Kwale, Samburu, Kitui, Garissa, Turkana, Kwale, Makueni, Garissa and West Pokot recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kajiado Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Narok Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Samburu Turkana West-Pokot Kwale Samburu Kitui Garissa Turkana Kwale Makueni Garissa West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita-Taveta Tana River Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Narok Nyeri Tharaka- Nithi Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of October 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, October 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Emergency Recovery 3.0. Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 3.2 Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support on livestock commercial and slaughter in situ Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.2 Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 3.3 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.4 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.5 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 3.6 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and Sector Technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEXES Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th October 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 63.98 72.67 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness which showed slight improvement when compared with the previous month of September. Central 66.68 76.34 Eldama 68.42 71.57 Mogotio 60.84 North 65.93 74.99 South 61.82 72.23 Tiaty 63.59 72.79 MANDERA County 28.02 18.54 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation condition during the last month of September. Mandera South and Mandera West were stable at moderate vegetation deficit Banissa 29.18 16.34 M East 16.19 11.24 Lafey 22.76 13.55 M North 27.51 18.93 M South 34.46 21.95 M West 28.64 22.31 TURKANA County 41.54 44.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at normal vegetation condition during the month of October. Turkana East improved to above normal vegetation greenness. T Central T. East 46.91 52.39 T. Loima 34.69 42.08 T. North 32.84 T. South 53.19 57.73 T. West 50.65 47.45 MARSABIT County 13.52 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of October. Saku improved to moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 14.85 15.79 Moyale 16.08 N. Horr 13.94 15.14 17.93 20.23 WAJIR County 27.91 22.81 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Wajir east and Tarbaj sub counties worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness W East 38.21 26.07 W. Eldas 15.91 W. North 30.69 28.24 W. South 27.33 22.22 W. Tarbaj 40.75 28.93 W West 15.74 14.97 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 21.46 23.22 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit compared to last month of September. Samburu west was stable at normal vegetation greenness. S East 10.59 S. North 30.71 S. West 35.88 49.11 GARISSA County 27.14 23.98 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 16.24 17.46 Daadab 22.36 18.42 30.88 26.79 Ijara 41.69 34.04 Lagdera 12.35 14.67 Dujis 26.82 27.07 ISIOLO County 13.58 13.98 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. This was stable when compared to last month. I. North I. South 15.54 15.93 TANA RIVER County 31.17 31.29 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of October. 32.01 29.32 Galole 29.09 30.74 Garsen 31.76 33.32 KAJIADO County 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. K. Central 18.35 19.58 K. East 23.77 29.98 K. North 27.55 41.84 K. South 29.76 K. West 37.12 42.99 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 37.63 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West improved to above normal vegetation greenness from at normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North improved to moderate vegetation deficit. L. East 24.22 37.53 L. North L. West 46.07 60.03 THARAKA NITHI County 38.38 37.56 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. Chuka 41.68 46.28 Maara 47.94 49.42 Tharaka 34.09 30.48 WEST POKOT County 59.31 64.25 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an stable when compared with the previous month of September. Kacheliba 61.81 Kapenguria 67.98 73.79 Pokot South 68.63 Sigor 49.21 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 36.17 50.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except Mbeere South which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 35.85 52.94 Mbeere North 38.91 52.19 Mbeere South 32.93 46.84 Runyenjes 42.55 58.95 KITUI County 35.04 37.97 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Generally, there was improvement in vegetation greenness across the sub counties. Kitui Central 24.82 35.77 Kitui East 34.36 37.04 Mwingi Central 35.32 Mwingi North 29.87 30.31 Mwingi 40.81 49.24 Kitui Rural 30.31 33.41 Kitui South 37.78 40.08 Kitui West 32.17 41.33 MAKUENI County 39.95 43.51 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a stable trend as compared to September. Kaiti 40.65 49.14 Kibwezi East 32.73 35.62 Kibwezi 36.51 38.62 Kilome 25.98 34.94 Makueni 55.49 57.65 Mbooni 51.19 55.01 County 38.13 39.11 The county recorded normal vegetation a stability in vegetation greenness during the month of October. Buuri 34.19 38.84 Central Imenti 53.65 Igembe Central 33.26 Igembe North 19.69 21.35 Igembe South 41.82 North Imenti 43.78 47.13 South Imenti 65.19 63.63 Tigania East 34.95 37.36 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th Sept 2022 VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania West 33.09 35.86 NYERI County 38.94 46.65 The county and three of its sub counties noted a stability at normal vegetation greenness. Mathira improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Kieni 42.17 44.44 Mathira 27.15 45.88 Mukurweini 38.54 44.96 Othaya 43.93 59.03 45.12 54.59 Township 11.91 32.31 KILIFI County 25.45 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month of October from moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 18.85 12.15 Kaloleni 33.93 22.87 Magarini 23.47 17.92 Malindi 14.86 Kilifi-North 26.07 Rabai 50.22 36.33 Kilifi-South 52.97 40.29 KWALE County 30.07 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kinango 27.62 20.98 Lungalunga 52.24 42.06 Matuga 45.46 41.65 Msambweni 49.73 51.44 County 61.93 49.71 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of September. Lamu East 58.22 43.79 Lamu West 64.08 53.14 TAITA TAVETA County 27.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Wundanyi subcounty improved to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 24.26 21.25 Taveta 27.96 30.13 27.72 27.76 Wundanyi 33.57 35.83 NAROK County 41.46 There an improvement in vegetation cover in the county to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Narok-East 33.46 37.57 Emurua Dikirr 65.18 78.88 Kilgoris 52.98 69.62 Narok-North 39.72 37.97 Narok-South 31.83 40.68 Narok-West 47.59 68.62 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "December_2022.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained critical in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of November 2022. The reported rains in pocket areas of the ASALs are yet to reverse the current drought situation. The situation may slightly improve especially environmental indicators. This is attributable to four failed rain seasons coupled with delayed onset of the OND 2022 rains in most parts of the ASALs. The impact of sustained drought situation has seen the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance stand at 4.35 million. Risks of Acute malnutrition continue to be reported in ASAL counties where 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished continue to access treatment. 1.1 Drought phase classification During the reporting month, only the county of Laikipia slightly improved to Alert phase leaving Thirteen (13) counties namely; Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. Seven (7) counties including; Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 November Rainfall Performance Analysis of the November 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall including Pastoral North East (PNE), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA), Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the November long term mean. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 50 of the October LTM. However, Garissa and Tana River counties received between 76-100 mm of rainfall. The SEMA counties; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received enhanced rainfall with some parts recording between 101-125 mm of rainfall. The CMA counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between 50-75 mm of rainfall. The AGP cluster; Baringo and West Pokot did not receive notable rainfall during the month under review, however, Narok county received good rainfall between 76-100mm of rainfall amounts. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. Figure 2. November 2022 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for December The rainfall outlook for the month of December is illustrated in figure 3. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to received depressed rainfall. Parts of PNE, including Mandera and parts of Wajir and northern eastern parts of Marsabit are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of December. Parts of agropastoral clusters including southern parts of west Pokot and western parts of Baringo counties are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of december. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for December 2022. Figure 3. December 2022 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in November 2022 has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month of October 2022. Fig 4: VCI values for October 2022 and November VCI 2022 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 2022 and November 2022 The month of November 2022 indicated alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties as compared to the previous month of October 2022. The alarming deterioration associated with ongoing poor performance of October-November- December (OND) short rains. Despite the reported rains in pocket areas of the ASAL counties, positive impacts on vegetation rejuvenation is yet to be registered. Two (2) counties including; Isiolo and Kilifi were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following seven counties (7); Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, October 2022 November 2022 Makueni and Meru are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Only Baringo County recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Isiolo Kilifi Wajir (Eldas, West) Samburu (East) Isiolo (North) Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale, Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa, East, Lafey, North, South, West) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Wajir (East, North, South, Tarbaj) Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Lagdera, Dujis) Isiolo (South) Tana River (Bura) Kajiado (Central) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kitui (Mwingi North) Meru (Igembe North) Nyeri (Township) Kilifi (Kaloleni, South) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi) Moderate vegetation deficit Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru Turkana (North) Samburu (North), Garissa (Fafi, Ijara), Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Kajiado (East, North, South) Laikipia (East, North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini), Kilifi (North, Rabai) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (East) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Narok (East) Normal vegetation greenness Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu, Narok Turkana (Central, East, Loima, South, West) Samburu (West), Kajiado (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti) Nyeri (Mathira, Tetu), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (West) Narok (North, South) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo Baringo (Central, Eldama, Mogotio, North, South, Tiaty) Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Meru (South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with limited improvement realized compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Pasture deteriorated to poor condition in Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Kieni, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kieni Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kieni Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Taita Taveta County which reported good body condition for cattle only shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taita Taveta 1.3.3 Milk production In most of the counties, milk production during the month under review showed a decreasing worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October. The following counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River recorded an improving trend. Despite reported rains in some parts of the counties, the impacts on vegetation rejuvenation and milk production is yet to be realized. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. No county recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Tana River Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu West Pokot NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of November remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the markets functioning fairly. 100 percent of the counties cattle prices were below normal with 7 counties reporting worsening trend. However, Kwale county reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. The following counties including Isiolo, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and Wajir reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale West Pokot Tana River Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Tharaka Nithi Samburu Mandera Kwale Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Makueni Narok Tana River Wajir 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with a stable and worsening with 48 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices. Consequently 4 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, November 2022. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kwale Samburu Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Makueni Narok West Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Nyeri Kitui Baringo Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta Mandera Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Garissa Samburu Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana West Pokot Baringo Narok Isiolo 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale county, with the onset of the October-November-December season, households engaged in land preparation this month while those who had begun earlier engaging in planting and weeding. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kitui county, land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones. However, the early-planted crops were in germination stage and in good condition, in parts of the county where early planted crops had withered due to moisture stress, farmers were forced to re-plant. In Makueni county, in both the Mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, majority of the farmers had planted, and crops had germinated, main agricultural activity in most of the farms was weeding, gapping and top-dressing. Cases of crop pests - fall army worm infestation was reported in across most parts of the County. In Tharaka Nithi county: planting and first weeding was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at four leaves stage for legumes and knee high for the cereal crops and were of good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Kwale, Kilifi and Marsabit counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while the 14 counties were at Stable and six counties exhibited an improving trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, November 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 14 counties is currently above the LTA. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.1 kilometers (km) and 11.2 km with Laikipia recording lowest and Marsabit recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kwale Narok Garissa Kitui Isiolo Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Marsabit Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Nyeri Samburu Tana River Laikipia Isiolo Wajir Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Mandera Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Kilifi Marsabit Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance household s to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Wajir Turkana West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in those particular counties. The average trekking distance for livestock in Arid counties ranged between 4.2 km and 30.5 kilometers(km) with West Pokot recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km to 10.2 km with Tharaka Nithi recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Narok Kajiado Garissa Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Laikipia Kitui West Pokot Turkana Baringo Kilifi 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Samburu Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Narok Kilifi Turkana 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. About 61 percent of the ASAL counties recorded above average MUAC values contrary to less than 20 percent when the situation is normal. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Turkana Makueni Marsabit Garissa Kwale Narok Kilifi Samburu Laikipia West-Pokot Mandera Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kwale Samburu Garissa Kwale Laikipia Makueni Garissa Baringo Isiolo Turkana Taita-Taveta 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of November 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Lamu and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Embu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Pokot Alert Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri Meru, Laikipia Alarm Garissa, Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera Emergency Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support to livestock off-take (commercialslaughter in situ) Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of water storage. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th November 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 72.67 56.99 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness however, there was slight decrease in VCI values when compared with the previous month of October. Central 76.34 66.98 Eldama 71.57 66.98 Mogotio 54.37 North 74.99 56.93 South 72.23 57.98 Tiaty 72.79 54.52 MANDERA County 18.54 15.64 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation condition during the last month of November. Mandera South and Mandera West worsened to severe vegetation deficit Banissa 16.34 17.96 M East 11.24 Lafey 13.55 M North 18.93 17.84 M South 21.95 11.89 M West 22.31 17.66 TURKANA County 44.32 34.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T Central 42.83 T. East 52.39 37.27 T. Loima 42.08 36.87 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit T. North 32.84 26.54 T. South 57.73 41.84 T. West 47.45 35.99 MARSABIT County 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of October. Saku worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 15.79 11.77 Moyale 16.08 11.43 N. Horr 15.14 13.19 20.23 12.46 WAJIR County 22.81 13.84 The County worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of October. W East 26.07 14.83 W. Eldas 15.91 W. North 28.24 19.08 W. South 22.22 12.89 W. Tarbaj 28.93 W West 23.22 SAMBURU County 10.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review from moderate vegetation deficit in the last month of October S East 30.71 S. North 49.11 23.26 S. West 23.22 41.47 GARISSA County 23.98 17.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Balambala 17.46 11.49 Daadab 18.42 13.77 26.79 21.95 Ijara 34.04 21.71 Lagdera 14.67 10.26 Dujis 27.07 16.67 ISIOLO County 13.98 The county and tow its sub-counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. I. North I. South 15.93 10.46 TANA RIVER County 31.29 20.62 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Bura worsened to severe vegetation deficit 29.32 17.99 Galole 30.74 20.22 Garsen 33.32 KAJIADO County 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. K. Central 19.58 15.44 K. East 29.98 23.79 K. North 41.84 31.99 K. South 29.76 23.97 K. West 42.99 35.29 LAIKIPIA County 37.63 32.04 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. L. East 37.53 31.34 L. North 21.64 L. West 60.03 51.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit THARAKA NITHI County 37.56 26.19 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka subcounty worsened to severe vegetation greenness. Chuka 46.28 39.26 Maara 49.42 41.89 Tharaka 30.48 16.24 WEST POKOT County 64.25 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which was a decrease when compared with the previous month of October. Kacheliba 61.81 40.59 Kapenguria 73.79 57.72 Pokot South Sigor 38.71 County 50.65 41.19 The county and two its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except manyatta and Runyenjes which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 52.94 Mbeere North 52.19 38.92 Mbeere South 46.84 36.31 Runyenjes 58.95 53.21 KITUI County 37.97 24.67 The county deteriorates to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of October. Kitui Central 35.77 25.99 Kitui East 37.04 23.54 Mwingi Central 22.49 Mwingi North 30.31 19.05 Mwingi West 49.24 34.41 Kitui Rural 33.41 24.26 Kitui South 40.08 Kitui West 41.33 29.65 MAKUENI County 43.51 33.34 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kaiti 49.14 38.34 Kibwezi East 35.62 26.26 Kibwezi West 38.62 31.82 Kilome 34.94 26.93 Makueni 57.65 43.31 Mbooni 55.01 40.73 County 39.11 29.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Buuri 38.84 36.64 Central Imenti 53.65 Igembe Central 33.26 23.05 Igembe North 21.35 14.55 Igembe South 41.82 25.48 North Imenti 47.13 31.15 South Imenti 63.63 Tigania East 37.36 Tigania West 35.86 26.87 NYERI County 46.65 36.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kieni 44.44 34.39 Mathira 45.88 35.64 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th Oct 2022 VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mukurweini 44.96 28.22 Othaya 59.03 55.09 54.59 47.22 Township 32.31 12.72 KILIFI County 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month of November from severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 12.15 Kaloleni 22.87 13.62 Magarini 17.92 Malindi 14.86 Kilifi-North 26.07 20.44 Rabai 36.33 21.37 Kilifi-South 40.29 18.14 KWALE County 30.07 17.33 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kinango 20.98 Lungalunga 42.06 24.56 Matuga 41.65 32.65 Msambweni 51.44 40.92 County 49.71 37.41 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of October. Lamu East 43.79 31.76 Lamu West 53.14 40.68 TAITA TAVETA County 27.65 17.95 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit which was a decrease when compared to the previous month of October. Mwatate 21.25 11.83 Taveta 30.13 21.01 27.76 17.94 Wundanyi 35.83 23.79 NAROK County 48.29 There a deterioration in vegetation cover in the county to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Narok-East 37.57 34.05 Emurua Dikirr 78.88 69.31 Kilgoris 69.62 64.44 Narok-North 37.97 43.32 Narok-South 40.68 36.78 Narok-West 68.62 58.21 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery. Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2023": {
            "January_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JANUARY 2023 1.0 DROUGHT SITUATION OVERVIEW The drought situation remains critical in 22 of the 23 ASAL counties due to the late onset and poor performance of the much-anticipated October to December 2022 short rains, coupled with four previous consecutive failed rainfall seasons. Currently, nine arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties namely; Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo, Kitui and Kajiado are in Alarm drought phase while 13 counties are in Alert drought phase. These include Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Nyeri and Kwale. Only Embu county is currently classified in Normal drought phase. Taita Taveta, Kwale, Garissa and Tana River improved from Alarm to Alert phase due to light showers received during the last week of December. Conversely, the drought situation in Baringo Pokot counties deteriorated from Normal to Alert drought phase. High rates of children at risk of malnutrition noted Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. rains assessment conducted in July 2022 had projected million people would require relief assistance by December. A multi-agency assessment of the 2022 short rains season is ongoing to ascertain its impact on food security. The assessment team comprises representatives from Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification December 2022 1.1 DROUGHT OBSERVED INDICATORS 1.1.1 December Rainfall Performance Analysis of the December 2022 rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North East, South Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters received between 0 to 75 of the December Long Term Mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 50 to 75 of the December LTM. However, parts of Garissa and Tana River counties received very minimal rainfall - 10mm. The South East marginal agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received depressed rainfall, with some parts recording between 26mm to 75 mm of rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu - received inadequate rainfall. The agropastoral cluster including Baringo, Narok and West Pokot, received notable amount of rainfall between 76mm to 125mm of rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2023 As illustrated in Figure 3, the rainfall outlook for January forecasts occassional rainfall in lower parts of the ASALs are, especially coastal marginal agrilture areas including Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. The South East marginal agriculture counties including Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties are forecasted to receive light showers while agropastoral counties of Narok and Kajiado are forecasted to receive occassional rainfall. The upper parts of the ASALs, including Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are expected to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 2: December 2022 Rainfall Performance Figure 3: January 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.2 VEGETATION CONDITION December 2022 recorded alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (November 2022). The deterioration is attributed to poor performance of the October to December short rains. Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Three counties - Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo - recorded extreme vegetation deficit while three others - Mandera, Samburu and Kwale recorded severe deficit. 12 counties including Turkana, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River have moderate vegetation deficit, hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Five counties - Baringo, Embu, Makueni, Lamu and Narok - recorded Normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2022 is provided in Table 13 while Table 1 shows the situation in each county disaggregated by sub-county. Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No.) Extreme Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Mandera (East, South) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Saku, North Horr) Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West) Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South) Nyeri (Township), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera Samburu Kwale Mandera (Banissa, Lafey, North, West) Samburu (East) Garissa (Balambala, Dujis) Kajiado (Central, North) Laikipia (North) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Moderate vegetation deficit Turkana Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo (Tiaty) Turkana (East, Loima, North, South, West) Samburu (North, West) Garissa (Daadab) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Kajiado (East, South, West) Laikipia (East,) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Sigor) Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North) Makueni (Kilome) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti) Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Narok (East, South) Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Makueni Narok Baringo (Eldama, Mogotio, North, South) Turkana (Central) Garissa (Fafi, Ijara) Tana River (Garsen) Laikipia (West) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) 1.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most ASAL counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The condition was below normal, with no improvement realised when compared with the previous month. The pasture and browse is not expected to last long due to high concentration of livestock in grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse deteriorated to poor in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado and Kwale counties. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in December 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Narok Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kitui (Central, Mwingi West, Rural, South, West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Tigania East, Tigania West) Kwale (Msambweni) Lamu (East, West) Narok (North, West) Vegetation greenness Above normal Baringo (Central) Embu (Mbeere North) Makueni (Makueni) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition ranged from poor to fair in most ASAL counties except Lamu, Makueni and Taita Taveta counties which reported good body condition for cattle as shown in Table 3. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3: Livestock body condition in December 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Tana River West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Makueni 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of December remained stable in most of the counties compared to November. Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving milk production trend. The current milk production status in 21 of the 23 counties is below average compared to normal years. Table 4: Milk production trends in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening production Tharaka Nithi Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Mandera Narok West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot NB: Turkana had zero readings. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Cattle prices in majority of the counties remained stable in December compared to the previous month, with majority of the counties continuing to record below normal prices while four counties reported a worsening trend. Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, and Mandera counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle prices Tana River Pokot Garissa Kitui Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kwale Mandera 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in ASAL counties were generally poor, with most ASAL counties recording below long term average prices. However, most counties recorded an improving trend compared to November as result of regeneration of pasture and browse as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening prices Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Samburu Tana River Kitui Kwale Narok West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Wajir Narok Mandera Marsabit Garissa Baringo Kwale 1.4 CROP PRODUCTION Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: The crop condition in Kilifi County remained poor due to moisture stress, with minimal to no harvest expected as most of the crop is wilting coupled with Fall Army Warm infestation. There was also delayed and poor temporal rainfall distribution, which is likely to lead to crop failure. Farmers in some areas of Kwale County were weeding in December having planted earlier and received some rains. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting owing to loss of seeds following a dry spell immediately after planting. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The area planted in Kitui County was lower than the long term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. However, majority of crops were at knee heightflowering stage and in fair condition. Weeding for the season was also ongoing across the livelihood zones. In both the mixed farming and marginal Mixed farming livelihood zones of Makueni County, crops were at different stages, with maize ranging from knee-height to tasseling stage. Cases of fall army worm infestation were reported across all livelihood zone. In some areas, crops germinated and dried up following persistent drought and aridity while in some places there was completely no onset of the short rains. In Tharaka Nithi County, weeding and pest control by spraying was ongoing. About 90 of the farmers had planted considering the county relies on the short rains for food production. Crops were at four leaves development stage for legumes and knee height for cereal crops and in good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges, particularly those related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Tana River, West Pokot and Makueni counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend during the month under review while the remaining countie were stable and improving trend compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The maize prices were above long term average. Table 7: Maize prices in December 2022 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households is currently above long term average in 16 counties. However, the trend is generally improving compared to the previous month. Distances in arid counties ranged between 3.3 and 16.2 kilometres, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Marsabit Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Tana River West Pokot Makueni Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 2.2 and 6.2 kilometres, with Nyeri (Kieni) recording the lowest and Kajiado the highest. Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tana River counties showed an improving trend as shown in Table 8. Table 8: Distance from households to main water sources in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househo lds to water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Garissa Narok Samburu Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Garissa 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above long term average and on an improving trend in most ASAL counties compared to the previous month. However, trekking distances in Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera and Marsabit counties are on a worsening trend due to poor performance of short rains seasons. The average trekking distance in arid counties ranged between 5 and 33.1 kilometres, with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest. The average trekking distance in semi- arid counties ranged between 3.2 and 8.1 kilometres, with Nyeri recording the lowest and Taita Taveta highest. Table 9 shows the trend of distances for livestock from grazing areas to water main source. Table 9: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Kwale Samburu Baringo Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi to main water sources Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Tana River Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River West Pokot Mandera Marsabit 1.6 TERMS OF TRADE Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long term average. The terms of trade are stable compared to the previous (November). Table 10: Terms of Trade in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Baringo Garissa Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Kilifi Turkana Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Tana River 1.7 HEALTH AND NUTRITION High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. In addition, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference (MUAC) measurement below long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening in trend during the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across ASAL counties based on MUAC measurement. Table 11: Children at risk of malnutrition in December 2022 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Tana River Makueni Marsabit Garissa Narok Kwale Samburu Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Turkana West- Pokot Kitui Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Wajir Kwale Samburu Makueni Isiolo Turkana Taita- Taveta Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are in Alarm drought phase. Another 13 counties - Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot and Nyeri - are in Alert drought phase, while Embu is in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at the end of December 2022. Table 12: Drought phase classification in December 2022 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Alert Garissa Narok Tana River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Alarm Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households that are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 2. Livestock sector: Provision of livestock feeds and supplements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Support water trucking; rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of fuel subsidies to motorised boreholes; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion; provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhanced hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th December 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 27th Nov 2022 VCI-3 month as at 25th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 56.99 37.83 The entire county and four sub-counties recorded Normal vegetation greenness. However, this was a worsening trend compared to November. Central 66.98 53.62 Eldama 66.98 44.62 Mogotio 54.37 37.22 North 56.93 38.15 South 57.98 39.26 Tiaty 54.52 33.46 MANDERA County 15.64 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition at severe vegetation deficit. Mandera South and Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. Banissa 17.96 17.84 M East Lafey 10.66 M North 17.84 16.16 M South 11.89 M West 17.66 10.93 TURKANA County 34.86 25.32 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation deficit T Central 42.83 36.64 T. East 37.27 24.19 T. Loima 36.87 26.77 T. North 26.54 20.54 T. South 41.84 28.21 T. West 35.99 25.57 MARSABIT County The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. Laisaimis 11.77 Moyale 11.43 N. Horr 13.19 12.46 WAJIR County 13.84 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in December. W East 14.83 W. Eldas W. North 19.08 W. South 12.89 W. Tarbaj W West SAMBURU County 15.38 The county maintained remained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu West worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness. S East 11.31 S. North 23.26 16.45 S. West 41.47 28.41 GARISSA County 17.59 27.59 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition index to moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in December. Lagdera worsened to extreme vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Balambala 11.49 17.72 Daadab 13.77 20.79 21.95 36.56 Ijara 21.71 37.62 Lagdera 10.26 Dujis 16.67 22.13 ISIOLO County The county and all sub counties maintained extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North I. South 10.46 TANA RIVER County 20.62 29.21 The county and sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit in December. Garsen improved to normal vegetation greenness. 17.99 20.64 Galole 20.22 30.54 Garsen 35.66 KAJIADO County 23.87 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and Kajiado North recorded severe vegetation deficit. K. Central 15.44 14.07 K. East 23.79 24.52 K. North 31.99 19.86 K. South 23.97 21.14 K. West 35.29 31.42 LAIKIPIA County 32.04 24.27 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable. Laikipia North worsened to severe vegetation deficit. L. East 31.34 32.13 L. North 21.64 15.37 L. West 51.85 37.15 THARAKA NITHI County 26.19 31.81 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Chuka 39.26 44.71 Maara 41.89 39.42 Tharaka 16.24 24.52 POKOT County 28.24 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 40.59 18.59 Kapenguria 57.72 40.29 Pokot South 49.04 Sigor 38.71 23.33 County 41.19 47.79 The county and three its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness except Mbeere north which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 42.24 Mbeere North 38.92 52.05 Mbeere 36.31 48.56 South Runyenjes 53.21 41.51 KITUI County 24.67 33.93 The county maintained moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, five sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 25.99 37.34 Kitui East 23.54 33.73 Mwingi Central 22.49 28.51 Mwingi North 19.05 Mwingi 34.41 36.53 Kitui Rural 24.26 43.12 Kitui South 38.74 Kitui West 29.65 37.15 MAKUENI County 33.34 46.06 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness. Kaiti 38.34 43.54 Kibwezi East 26.26 41.52 Kibwezi 31.82 48.74 Kilome 26.93 30.65 Makueni 43.31 56.32 Mbooni 40.73 48.77 County 29.98 32.83 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review which was stable compared to November. Buuri 36.64 41.45 Central Imenti 32.14 Igembe Central 23.05 29.25 Igembe North 14.55 25.97 Igembe South 25.48 25.35 North Imenti 31.15 27.09 South Imenti 31.19 Tigania East 36.08 Tigania 26.87 41.11 NYERI County 36.65 24.43 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit up from normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kieni 34.39 29.61 Mathira 35.64 12.62 Mukurweini 28.22 16.28 Othaya 55.09 26.78 47.22 24.62 Township 12.72 KILIFI County 20.78 The vegetation condition in the county improved to Ganze 12.55 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme vegetation deficit in December. Kaloleni 13.62 12.75 Magarini 24.58 Malindi 24.48 Kilifi-North 20.44 32.45 Rabai 21.37 16.44 Kilifi-South 18.14 KWALE County 17.33 17.46 The county recorded stability trend in vegetation greenness at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Kinango 11.23 Lungalunga 24.56 22.02 Matuga 32.65 30.62 Msambweni 40.92 36.13 County 37.41 44.57 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness which was improving trend when compared to the previous month of November. Lamu East 31.76 36.37 Lamu West 40.68 49.31 TAITA TAVETA County 17.95 22.88 The county and two sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit up from severe vegetation deficit, which was a decrease compared to November. Mwatate 11.83 Taveta 21.01 25.09 17.94 22.28 Wundanyi 23.79 NAROK County 48.29 38.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in December. Narok-East 34.05 Emurua Dikirr 69.31 60.65 Kilgoris 64.44 54.87 Narok-North 43.32 37.59 Narok-South 36.78 27.42 Narok-West 58.21 41.82 Table 14: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies SUMMARY OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside Figure 5. Drought Phase Classification.",
            "February_2023.pdf": "February 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in 22 out of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2022 short rains coupled with four consecutive failed rainfall seasons. The OND 2022 rains were characterised by late onset, poor spatial distribution early cessation. The month of January has registered increasing temperatures across the country further exacerbating the situation. Marsabit county drifted from Alarm phase to Emergency phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. Thirteen counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase. While one (1) county; Tharaka Nithi County is in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties and the assessment is ongoing to determine the cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, January 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 January Rainfall Performance The analysis of the January 2023 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive rainfall including Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture Pastoral North livelihood clusters. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa. Garissa received about 16 50mm of rainfall especially in Dujis subcounty. Turkana county experienced dry condition. Marsabit county in Pastoral North West especially, Saku subcounty received considerable amount of rainfall between 16 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very depressed rainfall with some parts recording between 16 - 25 mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties experienced hot and dry condition. The Agro Pastoral cluster including; Narok county received notable rainfall during the month under review of between 51 75mm of rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance for the month of January 2023. Figure 2. January 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for February The rainfall outlook for the month of February is illustrated in figure 3. Evidently, most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya will be generally under sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including; Taita Taveta and Kwale counties are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for February 2023. Figure 3. February 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Relates the vegetation condition Index (VCI) in January 2023 with that in January 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2022 was better in relation to that of 2023 same period. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) January 20222023 The month of January 2023 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2022. Four (4) counties including; Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and Isiolo were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following one county (1); Samburu is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following two (2) counties including; Kitui and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following six (6) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2023 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2022 as shown in (Figure 2). A January 2022 January 2023 summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of January 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2023 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse condition continue to deteriorate as temperature increase in the ASALs. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse is expected to get depleted in less than one month given high rate of evapo- Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Mandera (East, Lafey, North, South, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation deficit Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Laikipia (North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Rabai) Moderate vegetation deficit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Mogotio, South, Tiaty), Turkana (Central, East, Loima, North, South, West), Samburu (West), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Galole), Kajiado (Central, East, West), Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Sigor), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Kitui, Narok Baringo (North), Garissa (Fafi, Dujis), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (East), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South), Nyeri (Mathira, Township), Kilifi (Magarini, North), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (East), Narok (East, South, West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Baringo (Central, Eldama), Garissa (Ijara), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West,), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Lamu (West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North) transpiration induced by high temperatures. Pasture and browse deteriorated to poor condition in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Marsabit Narok Turkana West Pokot Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit Narok Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Kilifi Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kilifi counties which reported good body condition for cattle only as indicated in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2023 Garissa Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Baringo Narok Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Makueni Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Baringo Garissa Narok Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Makueni Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of January showed a decline in trend as compared to the previous month of December in most of the counties. The following counties including Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kitui recorded an improving trend while Kitui, Kwale, Narok and Makueni were above normal. The OND short rainfall season in the above-mentioned counties, regenerated some pasture and browse, impacting positively in milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 18 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Taveta Baringo Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Nyeri Tana River Makueni Marsabit NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4. Livestock mortality Livestock mortality was noted in number of counties as indicated in the table below. The most affected counties with above- normal livestock mortality rates included Marsabit, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir and Mandera. Table 5 .0. Shows livestock mortality. Table 5.0. Showing livestock mortalities across 23 ASAL counties of Kenya. Source data: State department of livestock records. County Species Total Population Livestock Deaths Percentage Livestock Mortality Marsabit Marsabit Marsabit 535, 972 Marsabit Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) Turkana Turkana Turkana Turkana Overall 52,822,469 2,613,008 1.3.5 Cattle prices The cattle prices in the month of January worsened in 9 counties of Lamu, Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri, West Pokot, Marsabit and Wajir compared to the previous month due to poor livestock body condition. 78 percent of the ASAL Countys cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The following counties including Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana reported a stable trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Tana River Makueni Kilifi Baringo Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Garissa Makueni Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Baringo Nyeri West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of December. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with counties of Baringo, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri, Wajir and Marsabit reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, January 2023. Three counties recorded an improving trend. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Narok Baringo Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Garissa Narok Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Baringo 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kilifi County, the cassava in the farms recorded fair condition, while 2022 short rains crop of maize, green grams and cowpeas recording poor condition following poor performance of the season. Vegetables, water melons and few pineapples and mangoes were the main crop harvested during the month under review. In some areas in Kwale county, Maize, cowpeas and green grams were the main crops grown during the short rains season. Maize was at tasseling stage with at least 80 percent showing moisture stress in both livelihood zones. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting because their seeds dried up owing to a dry spell that occurred immediately after planting. According to the just concluded short rains assessment, maize production was estimated at only 25 percent which was equivalent of 69,410 90-kg bags compared with 27,741 bags normally produced. Cowpeas and green grams were still being harvested although the production was projected at 50 percent each. Approximately 9,655 and 12,492 90-kg bags of green grams and cowpeas were projected to be harvested in comparison with 19,310 and 24,984 90-kg bags for the respective crops in the five-year long-term average. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The major crops planted in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone were green grams, millet, sorghum, cowpeas and maize. The Mixed Farming livelihood zone planted; maize, beans, pigeon peas, green grams and cowpeas. Area planted was lower than the long-term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. Majority of crops were in flowering, fruit filling or harvesting stages and in fair to poor condition. Total crop failure was also experienced in parts of Mwingi West, Kitui West and Mwingi North sub counties. Reported cases of fall and African army worm infestation was reported across the livelihood zones. In Makueni county, both the Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone, crops were at different stages of growth with maize having reached physiological maturity. Maize production will be adversely affected since the rainfall cessation was earlier causing the crop to be moisture-stressed at the critical time of tasseling silking stage. The production will be below average in most parts of the maize growing zones with some places like Kiima Kiu Kalanzoni and some parts of Kee and Mukaa wards realizing total crop failure. Production of green grams and cowpeas is expected to be good since the crops had attained physiological maturity by the time of rainfall cessation. There was also infestation among pulses in the Marginal Mixed Farming zone in areas such as Masongaleni. Pulses such as cowpeas and green grams had flourished in the Marginal mixed livelihood zone. Beans had performed well in the Mixed farming zone and good yields are expected. In Tharaka Nithi county, harvesting, winnowing and was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at maturity. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. Pulses planted during this season were green grams, cow peas and pigeon peas while as cereals like millet, sorghum and maize have been planted in the Mixed and Rain fed cropping Livelihood Zones. 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Marsabit and Wajir the price of maize was at a worsening trend while the remaining countie were at Stable (16) and improving (2) trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Tana River Makueni Baringo Garissa Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Marsabit 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source due to water trucking interventions. Distances to household water access in arid counties ranged between 3.40 16.4 kilometers (km) with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. While in semi-arid counties, the distance range between 3 km to 6.8km was recorded by Nyeri and KajiadoTharaka Nithi respectively. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2023 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distanc e from househ olds to water sources Garissa Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Narok Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Garissa 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for four counties which are on a stable trend due to poor performance of OND short rains. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 8.3 kilometers and 28.5 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.8 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru North highest. However, there was a slight improvement in Marsabit as a result of the ongoing water trucking interventions. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Pokot Tana River Baringo Garissa Narok Marsabit Garissa Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Over 95 percent of ASAL counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend in 13 counties and five counties depicting a stable condition. Table 10.0 shows the terms of trade across 23 ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Narok Baringo Garissa Makueni Kilifi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Tana River Baringo Marsabit Narok Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The counties of; Kilifi, Kitui, Kilifi, Samburu, Narok and West-Pokot recorded Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Tharaka Nithi River Makueni Garissa Marsabit Turkana Taveta Kilifi Narok West- Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Garissa Kilifi Narok Nyeri Taita- Taveta Baringo Makueni Marsabit Tana River Turkana Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12: sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of January 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase, while one (1) county Tharaka Nithi is in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. One (1) county, Marsabit is in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, one (1) county reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Tharaka Nithi Alert Kwale, Narok Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot Alarm Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Emergency Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Scaling up the interventions in terms of food aid and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Livestock off-takes (commercial and slaughter) Water sector Support scale up water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th January 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 37.83 32.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit and its three sub counties including Mogotio, Baringo South and Tiaty Central 53.62 54.95 Eldama 44.62 50.32 Mogotio 37.22 26.06 North 38.15 35.47 South 39.26 30.18 Tiaty 33.46 27.99 MANDERA County 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month under review. Most of the sub counties worsened during the month of January Banissa 17.84 10.62 M East Lafey 10.66 M North 16.16 M South M West 10.93 TURKANA County 25.32 23.18 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Turkana central worsened from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T Central 36.64 29.05 T. East 24.19 20.04 T. Loima 26.77 22.63 T. North 20.54 22.25 T. South 28.21 22.88 T. West 25.57 25.01 MARSABIT County The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit during the month of January. Laisaimis Moyale N. Horr WAJIR County The county and all of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month of January. W East W. Eldas W. North W. South W. Tarbaj W West SAMBURU County 15.38 17.82 The county maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Samburu North worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit. S East 11.31 15.69 S. North 16.45 18.23 S. West 28.41 25.17 GARISSA County 27.59 31.81 The county experienced stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of January. Balambala 17.72 19.57 Daadab 20.79 23.85 36.56 38.09 Ijara 37.62 51.29 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Lagdera Dujis 22.13 ISIOLO County The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. North I. South TANA RIVER County 29.21 28.12 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month January. Bura worsened to extreme vegetation deficit 20.64 18.78 Galole 30.54 26.83 Garsen 35.66 36.86 KAJIADO County 23.87 25.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January K. Central 14.07 23.74 K. East 24.52 27.03 K. North 19.86 36.67 K. South 21.14 16.78 K. West 31.42 34.01 LAIKIPIA County 24.27 22.36 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia East recorded an improvement in vegetation condition during the month of January L. East 32.13 40.21 L. North 15.37 15.46 L. West 37.15 26.66 THARAKA NITHI County 31.81 54.93 The county and its sub counties recorded a general improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness Chuka 44.71 Maara 39.42 70.68 Tharaka 24.52 45.05 POKOT County 28.24 24.74 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of December. Kacheliba 18.59 15.14 Kapenguria 40.29 35.67 Pokot South 49.04 44.68 Sigor 23.33 21.18 County 47.79 64.93 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of January Manyatta 42.24 68.19 Mbeere North 52.05 65.39 Mbeere South 48.56 62.79 Runyenjes 41.51 68.25 KITUI County 33.93 45.03 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January up from moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 37.34 55.42 Kitui East 33.73 42.75 Mwingi Central 28.51 36.56 Mwingi North 37.46 Mwingi West 36.53 40.28 Kitui Rural 43.12 70.13 Kitui South 38.74 49.02 Kitui West 37.15 56.69 MAKUENI County 46.06 64.07 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Kaiti 43.54 70.87 vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. Kibwezi East 41.52 63.35 Kibwezi West 48.74 62.09 Kilome 30.65 37.88 Makueni 56.32 75.59 Mbooni 48.77 70.83 County 32.83 52.52 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of January from moderate vegetation deficit Buuri 41.45 54.21 Central Imenti 32.14 63.39 Igembe Central 29.25 46.17 Igembe North 25.97 36.49 Igembe South 25.35 48.67 North Imenti 27.09 61.23 South Imenti 31.19 63.39 Tigania East 36.08 55.24 Tigania West 41.11 68.18 NYERI County 24.43 51.77 The county and four of its sub counties recorded serious improvement in vegetation condition from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation greenness Kieni 29.61 53.36 Mathira 12.62 48.24 Mukurweini 16.28 52.93 Othaya 26.78 52.87 24.62 Township 39.38 KILIFI County 20.78 29.85 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Magarini and Kilifi North improved to normal vegetation greenness Ganze 12.55 22.95 Kaloleni 12.75 10.15 Magarini 24.58 35.91 Malindi 24.48 30.52 Kilifi-North 32.45 37.13 Rabai 16.44 11.84 Kilifi-South KWALE County 17.46 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the month of January from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness Kinango 11.23 20.17 Lungalunga 22.02 28.59 Matuga 30.62 30.29 Msambweni 36.13 39.89 County 44.57 52.98 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness Lamu East 36.37 45.55 Lamu West 49.31 57.27 TAITA TAVETA County 22.88 28.87 The county and all of its sub counties remained constant at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review Mwatate 25.75 Taveta 25.09 23.87 22.28 32.39 Wundanyi 28.87 NAROK County 38.22 46.85 The county recorded the same vegetation greenness condition at normal ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 25th VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Narok-East 38.93 vegetation greenness, however, Narok South, East and West recorded slight improvements Emurua Dikirr 60.65 71.85 Kilgoris 54.87 Narok-North 37.59 54.47 Narok-South 27.42 38.47 Narok-West 41.82 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2023.pdf": "APRIL 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview Despite the reported rains in most parts of the country in the last Dekad of March, the rains are yet to impact on production systems. The drought situation remains critical in twenty-two (21) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of March 2023. The number of people in need of assistance still stands at 4.4 million currently following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment. counties namely Marsabit Turkana remain Emergency drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely Isiolo, Mandera, Kajiado, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Eleven (11) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. While two (2) counties; West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 970,214 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,179 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. The reported rains in most of the Arid counties are associated with flush floods which had negative impacts on the local livelihoods and critical facilities like roads. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 March Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates several parts of the ASALs counties received moderate amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received good amounts of rainfall. South Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of March. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did not receive good amounts of rainfall as compared to other clusters as shown figure Figure 2. March 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for April The rainfall outlook for the month of April is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya are forecasted to be under Near Average rainfall to Near Average to above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall with Kitui and Makueni counties falling under Near Average to above average rainfall. The Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near-Average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for April 2023. 1.1.3. Impacts of Rainfall during the month Flash floods were reported in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok, Taita Taveta and Wajir Counties. Flooding in Marsabit affected 1200 households (HH) and 2000 livestock deaths in North Horr while 1500 HH and 800 livestock deaths were affected in Moyale sub-county (Golbo ward). Additional 200HH and 150HH were affected in Laisamis and Saku sub-counties respectively. Floods in Garissa led to displacement of 80HH in Jilango and 28HH in barfin and cut off the road from Jilango to Modogashe Figure 3. April 2023 Rainfall forecast during the month. In Isiolo, floods occurred in Kinna North and Kinna South locations which caused the submerge of villages and reported death of livestock deaths and displacement of 700 Households during the month. In Mandera, floods were reported around River Daua, Rhamu, Elwak, Finjaru and Rhamu Dimtu that led to displacements, of 150 Households during the week. Tana River county reported flash floods in Maramtu farms in Madogo. River Tana water levels were reported to be fluctuating between 3.9 and 4.1 metres which depicts high probability of flooding risks as the rains continue. Thus, need for closer monitoring and sensitization of communities along the river belt to move to safer grounds. Samburu reported floods in Samburu East in Naishamunya sub-location where 800 households were displaced and 625 small stock and households goods swept away while heavy rains in Wajir North and the Ethiopian highlands resulted in flash floods in parts of Wajir North and Eldas sub-counties that caused loss of lives, livestock and property and; displacement of persons, damage to school infrastructure and closure of some schools. Taita Taveta reported flash floods in Mwatate sub-county while heavy rains in Turkana rendered roads in Kibish impassable during the month. Heavy rains in Narok caused swelling of river Suswa which disrupted transport along the Narok-Nairobi highway and river Narok that busted and caused flooding in Narok town while Mugor river busted its banks and destroyed a bridge in addition to causing displacement of approximately 200 households. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2023 with that of the previous month of February 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of February 2023 due to the rains received. The reported rains are expected to impact positively on vegetation regeneration. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of February and March The month of March 2023 indicated an improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2023. The improvement in vegetation condition is associated with impacts of early onset of the March April May (MAM) rainfall season which has led to minor regeneration of vegetation in most counties. Two (2) counties including; Mandera and Tana River were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following three (3) counties; Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit while three (3) counties including; Turkana, Kajiado and Kitui recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, February 2023 March 2023 Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2023 is better as compared to the previous month, February 2023 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Mandera, Tana River, Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku), Wajir (East), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Taita Taveta (Taveta), Severe vegetation deficit Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (South), Kitui (Mwingi Central), Kilifi (North, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Mwatate) Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, Central), Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (North), Laikipia (North, West), Kajiado (East), Kitui (Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (Kaloleni, South, Magarini, Rabai), Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Kajiado, Kitui, Baringo (South, Tiaty), Turkana (Loima), Samburu (West), Laikipia (East), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere North), Kitui (Kitui South), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe, South), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Turkana (West, North), Garissa (Township, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni, Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Kibwezi west), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok east, Narok north, Narok south, Narok west) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture remained poor in 65 percent of arid and semi-arid counties while browse condition remained poor in 30 percent in arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of February. The current pasture and browse condition are under generation process following the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Pasture and browse have started sprouting in majority of the counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was poor at 43 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 4 percent in the arid and semi-arid counties. The body condition for goats cattle was poor at 30 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 17 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is slight improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of March showed a slight improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of February in most of the counties. Six counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend while Makueni and Narok counties milk production was above normal. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri Pokot Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (73 percent) of cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however an improving trend has been noted across some counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok and Samburu as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Tana River Makueni West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Mandera Nyeri Tana River Wajir 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of February. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with only two counties of Kilifi and Nyeri reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties namely Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Kwale Narok Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Tana River Turkana Wajir Narok Garissa Kajiado Makueni Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Kwale Nyeri 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 8 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Land preparation ongoing Harvesting of Pineapples Kwale Minimal land preparation had begun South Marginal Agriculture Kitui Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones Makueni Farmers were busy planting drought-resistant and early maturing crops varieties as per the advisories developed Tharaka Nithi Land preparing and planting was the main engagements in the county, for early planters, crops were at the germination stage Increased incidences of pests especially quelea infestation on farms 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, maize prices were above avarage across ASAL counties due to consecutive failed seasons as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Makueni Kajiado Wajir Turkana Tharaka Nithi Kitui Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Samburu 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 15 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.3 kilometers (km) and 16.3 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. In semi-arid the distance ranged between 2.4km to 9.7km recorded by Narok and Meru counties respectively. 11 counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Wajir showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2023 Indicato Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Samburu Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Makueni Mandera Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA in 13 counties. The following counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Wajir, West Pokot and Baringo recorded an improvement in trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 22 kilometers and 8.7 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Mandera highest. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.3 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 11.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Wajir Baringo Garissa Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was below the long-term average as a result of low purchasing power of households across all ASAL counties. This resulted in high commodity prices, however, an improving trend has been noted in seven counties of Embu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi as shown in Table 12. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kilifi Baringo Wajir Narok Turkana Kajiado Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Kwale Nyeri 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Nyeri, Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit, Turkana, Embu, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa and Taita Taveta counties recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Twelve counties recorded a worsening in trend in the month under review while Kilifi, Lamu, Meru and Narok recorded an improving trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Mandera Tana River Makueni Marsabit Turkana Kwale Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi Garissa Taita Taveta Kilifi Laikipia Narok West- Pokot Kilifi Narok Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Baringo Garissa Laikipia Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Kitui Taita-Taveta Kwale Makueni Samburu Turkana 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 14 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of March 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties including Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties namely West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Two (2) counties, Marsabit and Turkana are in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded a stable trend, while four (4) counties reported a worsening trend due to delayed onset of the long rains in these four counties. Overall, the drought situation remains grave in twenty-one (21) ASAL counties. Table 14.0: Drought phase classification, March 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Alert Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, Taita Taveta, Alarm Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, Kitui Emergency Marsabit, Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought and other shocks. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th March 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 44.76 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 69.62 83.34 North 50.22 66.27 South 35.84 41.16 Ravine 74.68 98.16 Mogotio 28.23 31.24 Tiaty 40.57 48.98 MANDERA County -18.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month of March. Lafey -10.8 -24.87 North -11.72 -31.71 Banissa -5.49 -22.63 -3.37 -13.97 South -5.31 -5.13 -12.89 TURKANA County 32.39 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit 23.78 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Turkana West and Turkana North improved to above normal vegetation greenness. South 25.35 27.55 Loima 30.09 36.34 Central 27.56 39.97 57.65 North 36.79 57.35 MARSABIT County 10.93 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was an improvement from extreme vegetation greenness during the previous month of February. Laisamis 12.83 Moyale North Horr 12.06 WAJIR County The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to moderate vegetation deficit. Tarbaj 10.69 15.41 North 12.86 South 10.88 10.46 14.25 32.87 Eldas 10.67 26.57 SAMBURU County 23.06 25.04 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month under review. Samburu west improved to normal vegetation deficit. 17.93 17.88 North 26.37 29.85 32.66 37.76 GARISSA County 29.07 24.02 The county experienced a stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of March. Township and Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 17.82 14.78 Township 52.15 63.11 Ijara 61.11 69.82 27.34 13.04 Lagdera 19.26 Dadaab 16.41 ISIOLO County 12.13 17.46 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. North 10.04 16.19 South 15.31 TANA RIVER County 18.53 The county and all two of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit during the month March. 12.16 Galole 11.78 -4.08 Garsen 28.16 19.42 KAJIADO County 36.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at moderate vegetation deficit. Central 43.16 28.55 26.27 North 64.72 86.09 South 17.04 16.98 50.79 67.52 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit LAIKIPIA County 27.32 30.53 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the previous month of February. 49.88 North 21.87 27.57 27.26 26.75 THARAKA NITHI County 72.57 79.33 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Chuka 86.04 91.07 Maara 107.92 127.25 Tharaka 56.19 59.59 POKOT County 38.05 51.61 The county improved to above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 29.77 Kapenguria 46.67 60.19 Pokot south 56.38 72.23 Sigor 35.03 48.56 County 71.68 68.11 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Manyatta 101.54 120.12 Mbeere north 60.93 49.11 Mbeere south 62.04 51.91 Runyenjes 98.35 112.98 KITUI County 45.21 39.46 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at normal vegetation greenness during the month of March when compared with the previous month of February Kitui central 65.35 66.26 Kitui east 37.63 27.57 Kitui rural 84.68 94.58 Kitui south 51.62 48.14 Kitui west 68.89 73.27 Mwingi central 16.16 Mwingi north 38.02 31.79 Mwingi west 34.46 23.38 MAKUENI County 73.85 76.45 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 91.26 Kibwezi east 79.08 Kibwezi west 64.02 59.25 Kilome 38.34 30.76 Makueni 86.62 94.07 Mbooni 84.76 88.88 County 68.53 74.92 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March Buuri 72.82 87.41 Central Imenti 102.83 129.14 Igembe central 48.17 40.92 Igembe north 33.38 23.34 Igembe south 54.87 North Imenti 98.66 123.64 South Imenti 113.7 143.2 Tigania east 64.62 65.01 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Tigania west 89.76 103.84 NYERI County 93.65 119.36 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Kieni 88.53 110.55 Mathira 101.38 131.31 Mukurweini 99.71 129.91 Nyeri town 124.17 Othaya 99.78 125.99 103.57 135.85 KILIFI County 31.63 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Ganze 32.93 Kaloleni 15.26 30.32 Kilifi north 28.01 Kilifi south 13.67 26.05 Magarini 35.37 33.49 Malindi 24.41 17.32 Rabai 15.18 29.59 KWALE County 38.83 60.45 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the month of March from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness Kinango 36.76 62.36 Lunga lunga 40.94 58.31 Matuga 58.27 Msambweni 49.28 53.42 County 63.63 73.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Lamu east 58.77 70.52 Lamu west 66.45 74.88 TAITA TAVETA County 33.42 33.49 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Taveta subcounty worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Mwatate 23.66 16.31 Taveta 19.76 42.69 49.53 Wundanyi 25.26 23.23 NAROK County 69.51 94.93 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Emurua Dikirr 104.3 Kilgoris 81.88 104.24 Narok east 50.81 61.44 Narok north 76.56 95.17 Narok south 66.15 96.25 Narok west 69.54 102.17 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "May_2023.pdf": "MAY 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The ongoing March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season occasioned a positive impact on livelihoods across most parts of Arid and Semi-Arid counties with environmental indicators depicting recovery drought phase situation. Despite the recovery across the ASAL counties, food security situation is yet to improve and the number of people in need of assistance remains at 4.4 million following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment while the risk of Acute malnutrition remains. There is often a lag between recovery from drought and food available across the livelihoods. Three counties (3), Wajir, Taita Taveta and Lamu remain in Alert drought phase while Seven (7) counties namely Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in the Recovery drought phase. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Conversely, the rains have caused flash floods in most of the Arid counties which has negative impacts on local livelihoods like displacements and destruction of critical facilities like roads thereby hindering movement and commerce. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, April 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 April Rainfall Performance The analysis of the April 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs received good amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 101mm to 225mm of rainfall with central Turkana, Central Marsabit and North West Mandera receiving highest amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of April ranging between 50mm to 100mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did receive good amounts of rainfall with Lamu county recording highest amounts of rainfall of greater than 225 mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. April 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for the month of May The rainfall outlook for the month of May is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands are forecasted to receive Near-Average to above-average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. coastal marginal agriculture counties includeing Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to get Near- Average to above average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecasted to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. 1.1.3. Flooding Floods were experienced from March through April 2023 in the following counties including Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana, Tana River, Mandera and Wajir. Wajir County reported that an estimated 7,160 households were affected, out of which 6,325 were displaced. The roads linking various towns and settlements were rendered impassable in the county. The critical roads infrastructure including culverts, murram, bridges and drifts were damaged. Communities reported loss of valuable assets including; livestock, destruction of farms and loss of essential commodities by small scale traders, among others. Mandera indicated that flash floods have affected all the 9 locations in Mandera town leading to destruction of various structures including Figure 3. May 2023 Rainfall forecast house, toilets, blocking of culverts, interruption of free movement and displacement of many families within the locations. This has negatively impacted the livelihood of the communities living in the town. A total of 4,172 households were affected and need urgent humanitarian intervention. Flooding in other counties including Tana River, Garissa and Marsabit had minimal impact. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of April showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of March 2023. The reported rains are expected to continue to impact positively on vegetation condition. 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse improved in 56 percent of arid and semi-arid counties with all counties recording fair to good pasture and browse conditions as shown in Table 2. However, the current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of March. The pasture and browse regeneration continue to be registered in majority of the counties and expected to improve to normal status in the coming weeks with the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana Kajiado Mandera Marsabit Garissa Narok Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tana River Makueni West Pokot Baringo Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Kitui Wajir West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Baringo Kwale Turkana 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was fair at 65 percent and good at 35 percent. The body condition for goats was also fair at 52 percent and good at 48 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is an improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2023 Cattle Goats Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Garissa Baringo Kwale Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Kitui Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Baringo Kwale Kilifi Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kitui Narok Isiolo Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Kajiado 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of April showed an improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of March in majority of the counties. However, milk production was below LTA of a normal year in 74 percent of the ASAL counties. Milk production is expected to increase with browse and pasture regeneration. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kwale Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Baringo Kajiado Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Kitui Marsabit 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in the counties of Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Sheep and goat pox and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices In most of the ASAL counties (65 percent), cattle prices were below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, an improving trend has been noted in majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 6. The current unstable livestock body condition is attributed to current below normal prices. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Makueni Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Narok Samburu Mandera Nyeri Wajir Garissa Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Tana River West Pokot Kwale 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above normal as a result of improving livestock body condition. Most of the counties recorded Improving trend. The following counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu and Meru were at LTA t While 35 percent of the counties remained in stable trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Wajir Turkana Kwale Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Most of the planted crops germinated and farmers in different agro- ecological zones are engaged in weeding activities. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Farmers have their maize crop germinated and few are weeding Cow peas were less planted Kwale Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones South Marginal Agriculture Kitui Crops were at germination to knee highflowering stage and in good condition Makueni Crops were in the early vegetative stage. Farmers were weeding and top dressing Tharaka Nithi Farmers were doing first weeding and pest control Crop conditions were good and approaching flowering stage and at knee high 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, Maize prices remained above avarage across ASAL counties due to the depleted stocks, coupled with increased food and essential commodities prices across the country. Three counties namely Samburu, Tana River and Turkana showed an improving trend while Lamu, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot counties were on a worsening trend as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, April 2023 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households has improved across the ASAL counties. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance from household to water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 1.8km and 6.1 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Turkana recording highest distances as compared to the previous month where the lowest was 3.3km and highest 16.3 km. In semi-arid counties, Narok and Meru counties ranged between 1.5km to 7.2km respectively as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 2.4km to 9.7 km. All counties showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources except for Makueni which was stable. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Kajiado Kitui Samburu Tana River Turkana Mandera Baringo Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Wajir Kwale Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok West Pokot Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources Kilifi Kwale Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Turkana West Pokot Baringo Marsabit Samburu Isiolo Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kitui Mandera Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir Mandera Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Kitui Kwale Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Makueni 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source has reduced and thus indicating an improving trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 5kms and 9.3km with Isiolo county recording lowest distances and Garissa highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 8.7km and 22 km. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 2.2 kilometers to 9.6 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 3.2km and 13.3km. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kitui Mandera Samburu Turkana Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Baringo Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Kitui Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was stable across all counties but below LTA due to high maize prices as shown in Table 12. Terms of trade are expected to improve as the season progresses. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Mandera Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Garissa Kilifi Baringo Wajir Narok Turkana Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition. MUAC measurements recorded an improvement across most of the ASAL counties. However, in 17 counties, the MUAC is still above LTA. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Five counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review while Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Kitui, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. On a positive note, only Narok, Kilifi, Laikipia, West-Pokot and Taita Taveta counties that recorded MUAC below the long-term average. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Kwale Mandera Tana River Makueni Turkana Kwale Samburu Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Marsabit Narok Kilifi Laikipia West-Pokot Taita Taveta Kajiado Kwale Kitui Mandera Nyeri Narok Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Taita-Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Makueni 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of April 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored, seven (7) counties including Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while three (3) counties; Lamu, Wajir, Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in Recovery drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while none (0) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa, Narok Alert Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Nyeri Recommendations Food and safety nets Monitoring the recovery phase and supporting food assistance and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Investing in strategic water harvesting infrastructure for future lean seasons Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th April 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 83.34 86.15 North 66.27 71.21 South 41.16 41.62 Ravine 98.16 106.69 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mogotio 31.24 29.31 Tiaty 48.98 49.08 MANDERA County -18.86 -22.56 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit in the month of April. Lafey -24.87 -29.31 North -31.71 -38.54 Banissa -22.63 -28.57 -13.97 -14.71 South -5.31 -6.99 -12.89 -15.74 TURKANA County 41.29 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Turkana East and Central worsened to severe vegetation deficit. 18.37 South 27.55 22.38 Loima 36.34 32.63 Central 27.56 19.39 57.65 58.01 North 57.35 60.17 MARSABIT County 10.93 10.63 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to the last month of March Laisamis 12.83 Moyale North Horr 12.06 WAJIR County The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj 15.41 15.92 North 12.86 16.77 South 10.46 32.87 40.61 Eldas 26.57 35.89 SAMBURU County 25.04 20.57 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of April. 17.88 11.78 North 29.85 26.22 37.76 37.08 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 24.02 13.35 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition index to severe vegetation deficit during the month of April. Township and Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 14.78 Township 63.11 57.38 Ijara 69.82 65.73 13.04 -3.98 Lagdera 19.26 20.22 Dadaab -13.16 ISIOLO County 17.46 16.42 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the month of April. North 16.19 16.75 South 15.92 TANA RIVER County -2.58 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at extreme vegetation deficit -5.61 Galole -4.08 -17.77 Garsen 19.42 KAJIADO County 50.68 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April Central 26.27 20.91 North 86.09 96.15 South 16.98 13.71 67.52 LAIKIPIA County 30.53 28.04 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April 49.88 42.04 North 27.57 27.08 26.75 23.06 THARAKA NITHI County 79.33 68.17 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Chuka 91.07 80.71 Maara 127.25 124.46 Tharaka 59.59 45.46 WEST POKOT County 51.61 54.75 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kacheliba 46.32 Kapenguria 60.19 60.65 Pokot south 72.23 76.71 Sigor 48.56 52.15 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit County 68.11 53.52 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Manyatta 120.12 119.18 Mbeere north 49.11 28.09 Mbeere south 51.91 33.84 Runyenjes 112.98 110.61 KITUI County 39.46 27.29 The county worsened in vegetation condition to moderate vegetation greenness up from normal vegetation greenness during the month of April when compared with the previous month of March Kitui central 66.26 56.63 Kitui east 27.57 12.66 Kitui rural 94.58 89.18 Kitui south 48.14 37.54 Kitui west 73.27 64.42 Mwingi central 16.16 Mwingi north 31.79 17.86 Mwingi west 23.38 MAKUENI County 76.45 70.04 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Kaiti 99.86 Kibwezi east 83.18 Kibwezi west 59.25 48.85 Kilome 30.76 20.33 Makueni 94.07 89.63 Mbooni 88.88 82.55 County 74.92 69.21 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April Buuri 87.41 87.93 Central Imenti 129.14 133.46 Igembe central 40.92 27.57 Igembe north 23.34 11.35 Igembe south 32.13 North Imenti 123.64 128.67 South Imenti 143.2 144.49 Tigania east 65.01 55.59 Tigania west 103.84 101.92 NYERI County 119.36 122.68 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of April. Kieni 110.55 112.85 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 28th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Mathira 131.31 136.77 Mukurweini 129.91 135.7 Nyeri town 124.17 133.62 Othaya 125.99 127.76 135.85 139.16 KILIFI County 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze 48.25 Kaloleni 30.32 41.42 Kilifi north Kilifi south 26.05 27.25 Magarini 33.49 26.44 Malindi 17.32 Rabai 29.59 KWALE County 60.45 71.08 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition index during the month of April at above normal vegetation greenness Kinango 62.36 75.81 Lunga Lunga 58.31 67.79 Matuga 58.27 64.43 Msambweni 53.42 47.04 County 73.28 71.29 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Lamu east 70.52 70.76 Lamu west 74.88 71.59 TAITA TAVETA County 33.49 27.66 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April. However, Mwatate and Taveta sub counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit. Mwatate 16.31 Taveta -3.58 49.53 48.35 Wundanyi 23.23 15.57 NAROK County 94.93 109.96 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Emurua Dikirr 104.3 104.24 Kilgoris 104.24 112.69 Narok east 61.44 66.92 Narok north 95.17 101.76 Narok south 96.25 115.56 Narok west 102.17 125.25 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "June_2023.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JUNE 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The Arid and Semi-Arid counties are recording positive impacts of the just-ended March to May rainfall season. Three (3) counties are in drought Recovery phase while 19 are in Normal phase. However, Taita Taveta county remained Alert drought phase during the month of June 2023. counties Normal drought phase include; Makueni, Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru and Narok. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Acute malnutrition noted among children below five years and pregnant and lactating women across the counties. The number of people in need of relief assistance stands at 4.4 million as per the findings of the October to December 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment released February. An assessment of the impacts of the March to May 2023 long rains on local livelihoods is ongoing by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), which brings together Government sectors, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations. The assessment is critical since food securityinsecurity in the country, especially in the 23 ASAL counties, is highly dependent on rainfall. The assessment findings will provide detailed data on the food security situation in the country, which will inform action by the Government and our partners. Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification - June 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 June 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the June 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received low amounts of rainfall ranging between 40mm to 1mm. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging from 1mm to 5mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable rainfall ranging between 21mm to 80mm. The Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerably good rainfall amounts ranging between 21mm to 100mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties as well as the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 40mm. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for July 2023 Most parts of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and ry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi will experience sunny and dry conditions while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo will experience periodic chilly and overcast conditions with light rains alongside sunny and dry conditions. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall to slightly-above-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) will experience generally sunny and dry conditions while the forecast for the Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) indicates below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions as illustrated in Figure 3. Figure 2: June 2023 Rainfall Performance Figure 3: July 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.1.3 Flooding In Mandera, farms along River Daua are still wet from the flooding witnessed during the long rains and are yet to be planted. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 tracks the progression in vegetation regeneration based on vegetation condition index (VCI) values in May and June 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in June showed great improvement compared to May. Figure 4: VCI values trends for the months of May and June 2023 The improvement is attributed to the performance of the March to May long rains season, which led to vegetation regeneration in most counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, and Taita Taveta counties registered Moderate vegetation deficit, hence require close monitoring. Ten (10) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Marsabit, Laikipia, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Kitui, Kajiado and Kilifi recorded Normal vegetation greenness while another nine (9) counties - Baringo, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Narok, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2023 while Table 1 shows disaggregation by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in June 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse was good condition in 74 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are above normal, which is a great improvement compared to May. The regeneration is attributed to performance of the March to May long rains. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Taita Taveta Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, East), Turkana (East, Central), Marsabit (Moyal), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Kajiado (East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Kitui, Kilifi Baringo (Mogotio), Mandera (West, South), Turkana (south, Loima, West, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas), Samburu (West), Garissa (Township, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere north, Mbeere South),Kitui (East, South, Mwingi central, Mwingi west), Makueni (Kibwezi east, Kilome), Maru (Igembe central, Igembe north), Kilifi (Kilifi south, Magarini, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu, Narok Baringo (central, north, south, ravine, Tiaty), Wajir (west), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (central, north, west), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, rural, west), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Imenti central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Msambweni, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua Dikirr) Table 2. Pasture and browse condition, June 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Kitui Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Kwale Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Baringo Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of cattle was fair in 35 of ASAL counties and good in 65 while 22 recorded fair body condition of goats and 78 good. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock species is above normal, which is attributable to improvement in vegetation regeneration, compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3. Livestock body condition - June 2023 Cattle Goats Taita Taveta Makueni Samburu Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Garissa Narok Tharaka Nithi Wajir Mandera Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Turkana Isiolo Kwale Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Samburu Nyeri Tana River Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Baringo Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Turkana Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kitui Marsabit Laikipia 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was overall stability and improvement in the trend of milk production in June compared to May. The production is, however, yet to fully stabilise due to decline in tropical livestock units (TLU) and low birth rates attributed to residual effects of livestock mortality experienced during drought. Milk production is expected to increase as the birth rate of small stock increases following improved body condition. The milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown on Table 4. Table 4. Milk production - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Turkana Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Kitui Wajir Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kwale Laikipia Narok Samburu Tana River 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth (FMD) disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices A majority of ASAL counties (60) recorded above-average cattle prices, especially Isiolo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Wajir, Kwale, Narok and Samburu. The current cattle prices are below normal in Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. Embu and Makueni recorded worsening trends as illustrated in Table 5 as farmers disposed of animals to pay school fees. Table 5: Cattle prices - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above Long Term Average (LTA) At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Kwale Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Wajir Kitui Marsabit Turkana Tana River Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Narok Pokot Kajiado Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Kwale Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Makueni 1.3.6 Goat Prices Prices of goats were higher in most of the ASAL counties (78) compared to the long-term average, which was attributed to good performance of the long rains. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Narok Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Laikipia Nyeri West Pokot Makueni Samburu Tana River Wajir Kwale Narok Kilifi Marsabit Tana River 1.4 Crop production Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in the Coastal Marginal Agriculture and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Early planted maize and green grams were ready for harvest, while most farms recorded varied maize development stages from knee- high to grain-filling stage. Harvesting of green maize crop. Minimal harvest of pineapples from Magarini. Kwale Weeding was ongoing across the county, with three main crops planted being maize, cowpeas and green grams. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in fair condition. Makueni Green grams and cowpeas had performed fairly while maize registered total crop failure. Tharaka Nithi Crop conditions were fair-to-good and at harvesting stage for legumes while cereal crops were at ripening stage. Most farmers were harvesting and threshing for pulses while preparation for harvesting was underway for cereals. Crop in both livelihood zones was ready for harvesting. Harvesting of green grams, beans and cowpeas was complete. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASALs were above the long term average (LTA) since farmers are yet to harvest. 15 counties (65 ) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. These include Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Lamu, Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Samburu,Tharaka Nithi,Turkana and Mandera. However, eight counties recorded a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table 8. Table 8: Maize prices - June 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 10 counties are currently below the long term average. Compared to the previous month, there was a general improvement in distances to water sources for households. Distances to household water access in arid counties (pastoral) ranged between 2.5 kilometres for Isiolo (which recorded lowest) and 7.6 km for Mandera, which had the highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km in Laikipia (lowest) and 5.3 km inner North with the highest distance to household water access. Table 9 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit Kilifi Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera Baringo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River West Pokot Table 9: Trends in main water sources (domestic uses) in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance households to main water sources West Pokot Turkana Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Garissa Narok Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Wajir Kilifi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Kitui Marsabit Taita Taveta Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas was stable compared to May. Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded a worsening trend due to cessation of the rains season and high evaporation. The average trekking distances for livestock in arid counties ranged between 5 and 11.2 kilometres, with Wajir recording lowest and Mandera the highest distance. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 7.9 kilometres, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Meru the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Trends in main water sources (livestock use) in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Kitui Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Narok Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Tana River Turkana Wajir 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade trends in June, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to diminished household purchasing power. The decline was attributable to high prices of food commodities in local markets. Nevertheless, an improvement was observed in Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Meru while the trend in nine other counties was stable as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade (ToT) Kilifi Mandera Baringo Garissa Kitui Kwale Makueni Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Kitui Wajir Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Baringo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Tana River 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 12 illustrates the variation in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement. 18 counties recorded MUAC values above long term average, which can be attributed to high commodity prices, low purchasing power as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake at household level. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) - June 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Nyeri Kajiado Wajir Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Kitui Samburu Garissa Taita Taveta Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Narok Kwale Kilifi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Wajir Taita Taveta Makueni Kitui Samburu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Tana River Turkana West Pokot Narok Nyeri 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of indicators monitored above, 19 counties including Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru, Makueni and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert drought phase. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Six counties reported an improving trend in June, while another 15 recorded a stable trend and two counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13 summarises the drought phase classification as at the end of June 2023. Table 13: Drought phase classification - June 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Embu, Lamu, Kajiado Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Narok, Makueni Alert Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Marsabit Kwale 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and regular cash transfers targeting food insecure. b) Livestock sector: Facilitating safe migration for pastoralists moving back to their settlements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tablets; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment rainwater harvesting. d) Health and nutrition sector: Support to hygiene and sanitation promotion; and sustained mass screening and referrals. e) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict- prone counties. g) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought risk management activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th June 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 50.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. This was an improvement compared to May. Central 77.16 71.88 North 65.13 62.12 South 37.93 53.24 Ravine 91.77 77.73 Mogotio 24.33 45.22 Tiaty 44.27 52.17 MANDERA County -26.08 34.65 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to moderate vegetation deficit from extreme deficit in June. Lafey -32.96 30.45 North -37.19 30.79 Banissa -28.14 26.51 -16.01 37.37 South -19.06 44.26 -20.65 34.33 TURKANA County 29.85 41.81 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. 12.45 28.95 South 13.25 Loima 41.07 Central 11.53 34.12 39.85 49.42 North 50.06 48.51 MARSABIT County 35.18 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation greenness in June. Laisamis 35.12 Moyale 32.75 North Horr 35.09 48.65 WAJIR County 39.42 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation greenness in June. Wajir West recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj -5.39 45.48 North South -5.67 29.66 30.78 54.77 Eldas 24.37 48.86 -14.85 30.27 SAMBURU County 31.77 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate deficit in June. -2.53 26.56 North 13.03 34.22 26.39 44.74 GARISSA County 15.86 37.42 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in June. Great improvements were noted in Balambala, Daadab and Fafi sub-counties. Balambala 24.38 Township 34.23 35.39 Ijara 58.99 30.71 Lagdera 20.86 45.81 Dadaab -23.57 29.01 ISIOLO County 13.56 38.74 The county and all subcounties noted an improvement in vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in June. North 35.25 South 44.08 TANA RIVER County -5.18 28.96 The county and two subcounties recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. -11.17 22.31 Galole -16.78 26.06 Garsen 36.42 KAJIADO County 51.49 47.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness while Kajiado Central, North and West showed above normal vegetation greenness. Central 90.99 61.83 11.82 34.92 North 77.18 70.01 South 10.18 31.45 79.18 56.52 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 The vegetation condition in the County and sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation deficit. 18.07 45.08 North 12.07 37.06 15.32 THARAKA NITHI County 39.98 53.33 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness from normal, with Tharaka subcounty showing great improvement from severe deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Chuka 52.96 62.48 Maara 103.81 80.59 Tharaka 14.69 41.17 POKOT County 44.61 49.21 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness, with Kacheliba subcounty registering improvement to normal greenness from moderate deficit. Kacheliba 33.27 43.12 Kapenguria 49.51 51.24 Pokot South 67.98 63.63 Sigor 47.30 50.04 County 24.64 51.61 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit. Mbeere South and North sub counties registered the greatest improvement. Manyatta 91.95 79.38 Mbeere North 41.84 Mbeere South 42.53 Runyenjes 84.45 76.31 KITUI County 12.76 42.63 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to normal greenness. Kitui Central, Rural and West registered the greatest improvement to above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 38.72 Kitui East Kitui Rural 60.82 72.33 Kitui South 42.54 Kitui West 39.49 57.13 Mwingi Central -8.32 38.47 Mwingi North -2.68 31.49 Mwingi West 39.93 MAKUENI County 47.51 59.32 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness, with Kilome showing the greatest improvement. Kaiti 70.35 Kibwezi East 61.25 54.19 Kibwezi West 27.41 48.68 Kilome -3.42 47.02 Makueni 68.52 72.58 Mbooni 57.97 74.43 County 53.16 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central, North and South sub counties showed the greatest improvement. Buuri 82.54 62.92 Central Imenti 115.28 78.49 Igembe Central 45.39 Igembe -9.83 North Igembe South 45.58 North Imenti 105.42 74.88 South Imenti 127.14 87.07 Tigania East 43.49 50.65 Tigania West 82.24 64.39 NYERI County 100.29 80.35 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of June. Kieni 95.29 Mathira 115.98 90.87 Mukurweini 110.62 91.12 Nyeri Town 115.67 87.54 Othaya 75.83 105.79 82.64 KILIFI County 46.58 The vegetation condition in the county improved to normal vegetation greenness, with Kilifi North registering moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 48.48 51.89 Kaloleni 41.32 54.18 Kilifi North -9.41 34.17 Kilifi South 47.62 Magarini 44.77 Malindi 11.66 44.98 Rabai 32.71 53.37 KWALE County 64.58 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kinango 79.15 67.58 Lunga 70.00 62.24 Matuga 61.29 Msambweni 35.33 County 66.78 69.65 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Lamu East 68.33 68.48 Lamu West 65.89 70.33 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT TAITA TAVETA County 14.66 32.13 The county improved to moderate vegetation deficit in June. Mwatate -6.56 Taveta -18.58 23.38 35.55 37.98 Wundanyi 28.91 NAROK County 112.29 80.72 The county and all sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Emurua Dikirr 84.49 68.54 Kilgoris 108.17 73.81 Narok East 60.64 65.97 Narok North 84.95 76.33 Narok South 121.52 Narok West 141.73 89.71 Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "July_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JULY 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The 2023 long rains that ended in May had positive impacts, including reversing the adverse effects of the drought experienced in the past five seasons. Twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties reported normal drought phase during the month of July while one (Taita Taveta) was classfified in Alert drought phase and another (Marsabit) in Recovery phase. The 21 counties in Normal phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot. Figure 1 shows drought phase classification for the month of July 2023. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 July 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the July 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received trace rainfall amounts. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received amounts of rainfall at 1mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 5mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received low rainfall Figure 1: Drought phase classification in July 2023 Figure 2: July 2023 Rainfall Performance amounts in July ranging between 1mm to 10mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 11mm to 75mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for August 2023 The rainfall outlook for August is illustrated in Figure 3. About 90 of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and dry conditions. Parts South Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties such as Embu Tharaka Nithi experiencing periodic chilly and overcast with light rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions and periodically chilly and overcast with light rains for counties bordering Mt. Kenya and Aberdare ranges. coastal marginal agriculture counties including Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for August 2023. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The month of July 2023 indicated enormous improvement in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to June. The improvement is attributed to cumulative effects of March to May rainfall season and moisture condition improvement. One county, Taita Taveta, has Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Six Figure 3: August 2023 Rainfall forecast (6) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Sixteen (16) counties including Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions in June and July 2023 The vegetation condition in July 2023 is better as compared to June 2023 as shown in Figure 4. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2023 is provided in Table 14. The overall VCI for each county disaggregated by subcounty is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Summarised Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good in 52 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current conditions are above normal compared to normal years, with stability in pasture condition compared to June. Stabilised forage condition is attributable to above-normal rains received in the last season. Category County Subcounties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Central, East), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Normal vegetation greenness West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado Baringo (Tiaty), Turkana (East, South, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Samburu (North), Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Isiolo (North), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South, West), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kitui (Mwingi North), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Kwale (Msambweni), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Mogotio), Mandera (Lafey, North, South, West, East), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe central, Igembe north, Igembe south, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania west), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua dikirr) Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - July 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was fair at 30 and good at 70 in the ASAL counties while body condition for goats was fair at 26 and good at 74 Generally, the body condition of most livestock was above normal compared to similar periods in a normal year due to improvement in vegetation as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Livestock body condition - July 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Kitui Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Wajir West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was slight deterioration in the trend of milk production in July compared to the previous month of June. Eight counties showed an improving trend, except Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana, which experienced a worsening trend. Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Turkana counties, on the other hand, had milk production levels above the normal range. However, its important to note that the current milk production status in 15 of the 23 counties is below the average for a normal year. The details of milk production trend in the 23 ASAL counties are in table 4. Table 4: Milk production - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Garissa Isiolo Kwale Turkana Wajir Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Narok Tana River Wajir Baringo Garissa Mandera West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties (57) in the ASAL region experienced above-average cattle prices. The cattle prices were below normal in Nyeri and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. A positive trend was observed in the majority of the counties, including Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. However, Lamu and Meru recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices The prices of goats in most of the ASAL counties were higher at 86 compared to the long- term average. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend, except for Kitui, Lamu and Nyeri counties, which reported a worsening trend. In Table 6, it is evident that Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Table 6: Goat prices in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Mandera Narok Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Tana River Kwale Turkana Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana Samburu Kwale Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir West Pokot Kitui Nyeri 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. The coastal cluster counties of Kilifi and Kwale are yet to complete harvesting. Table 7 summarises the state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Long rains crop harvest continued across the livelihood zone. Maize, green grams and cowpeas were the main rain-fed crops being harvested in the month of July. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in the market remained high. Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was ongoing. Rains in the livestock farming livelihood zone ceased earlier than normal, with crops having experienced moisture stress and crop destruction caused by invasion of farms by elephants. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui -Crops were at harvesting stage with farmers recording below average harvests. -Wilting of maize was reported in most parts due to moisture stress hence little or no harvests realised. Makueni Minimal harvesting of maize was ongoing in the mixed farming livelihood zone. There was total crop failure in the MMF livelihood zone due to late onset and early cessation of the rains. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were harvesting pulses while harvesting was underway for cereals. Harvesting was complete for all the crops (beans, maize, sorghum, green grams) in both livelihood zones 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize Prices in ASALs were above the LTA, except in Garissa which was at LTA. 13 counties (56) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. They include Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Mandera, Kitui, Laikipia, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot. However, three counties witnessed a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table Table 8: Maize prices - July 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 5 counties was below the LTA. The trend is worsening compared with the previous month. Distances in arid (pastoral) counties ranged between 2.5 and 7.6 km, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.8 km to 6.3 km recorded in Laikipia and Kajiado counties respectively. 13 counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir, showed a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Makueni Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Kitui Laikipia Narok Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Garissa Laikipia Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Baringo Kwale Makueni Wajir West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month, with 10 counties registering distances below the LTA. 16 counties recorded a worsening trend. The average trekking distance for livestock in arid counties ranged between 7 and 12.2 km, with Wajir county recording lowest distances and Mandera County highest respectively. The distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 1.7 and 7.3 km in semi-arid counties, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Baringo the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Makueni Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Kitui Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir 1.6 Terms of Trade In July, 19 counties were below the LTA. The trade trends, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to the diminished purchasing power of households across ASAL counties. The decline can be attributed to the high prices of commodities. Nevertheless, an encouraging improvement was observed in 12 counties namely; Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. Two counties registered worsening state as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade - July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Kwale Makueni Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Isiolo Narok Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Garissa Kwale Laikipia Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Kitui 1.7 Health and Nutrition Twenty-one (21) counties recorded above long term average of the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle-upper- arm measurements MUAC values). This can be attributed to decreased milk production, resulting in reduced milk consumption at household level, as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake within households. The trend worsened in three counties including Kajiado, Kilifi and Turkana as illustrated in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Marsabit Samburu Garissa Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Mandera Tana River West Pokot Wajir Taita-Taveta Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Table 13 sums the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, 21 counties including Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert phase and Marsabit in Recovery. During the month under review, two counties reported an improving trend, 13 counties recorded a stable trend, while eight counties reported a worsening trend. The drought has continued to worsen in one county (Taita Taveta). Table 13: Drought phase classification - July 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Alert Taita Taveta, Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations i) Food and safety nets: Sustaining food aid and cash transfers to the population identified as requiring humanitarian assistance in the 2023 Long Rains Assessment. ii) Livestock sector: Promoting fodder productions and storage; stimulating local livestock markets and other value chains to function optimally; treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. iii) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tabs; development of roof catchments in institutions and rock catchments. iv) Health and nutrition sector: Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion; sustaining mass screening and referrals; pre-positioning the supply commodities in local facilities. v) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; support to school bursaries. vi) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogue and resource use agreements; coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. vii) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th July 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.93 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Central 71.88 69.95 North 62.12 64.17 South 53.24 57.86 Ravine 77.73 64.65 Mogotio 45.22 51.95 Tiaty 52.17 49.24 MANDERA County 34.65 60.94 Improvement in vegetation cover from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 30.45 North 30.79 54.75 Banissa 26.51 32.31 37.37 South 44.26 86.88 34.33 70.57 TURKANA County 41.81 46.68 Stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. 28.95 34.64 South Loima 41.07 53.68 Central 34.12 51.94 49.42 54.41 North 48.51 43.03 MARSABIT County 35.18 51.36 Improved vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Laisamis 35.12 49.69 Moyale 32.75 43.08 North Horr 35.09 52.85 48.65 79.49 WAJIR County 39.42 63.54 Improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Tarbaj 45.48 76.89 North 63.71 South 29.66 53.13 54.77 77.42 Eldas 48.86 72.89 30.27 54.82 SAMBURU County 31.77 36.42 Improving trend in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 26.56 North 34.22 44.74 50.42 GARISSA County 37.42 51.12 Improved vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 24.38 31.44 Township 35.39 35.12 Ijara 58.99 48.58 30.71 42.75 Lagdera 45.81 Dadaab 29.01 63.48 ISIOLO County 38.74 55.81 Improvement in vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. North 35.25 48.64 South 44.08 66.77 TANA RIVER County 28.96 46.57 The county and two of its sub counties noted improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness, with Galole and Garsen recording above normal vegetation greenness. 22.31 Galole 26.06 50.12 Garsen 36.42 50.11 KAJIADO County 47.21 35.58 The county recorded vegetation greenness at normal. However, Kajiado Central and East recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Central 61.83 30.99 34.92 31.74 North 70.01 52.85 South 31.45 36.37 56.52 38.81 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 47.35 The County and its sub counties improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation deficit. 45.08 North 37.06 42.01 57.42 THARAKA NITHI County 53.33 61.06 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Chuka 62.48 72.81 Maara 80.59 73.69 Tharaka 41.17 POKOT County 49.21 49.82 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, Kapenguria, Pokot South and Sigor recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Kacheliba 43.12 Kapenguria 51.24 55.86 Pokot south 63.63 67.51 Sigor 50.04 50.29 County 51.61 70.18 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.38 77.58 Mbeere north 41.84 Mbeere south 42.53 Runyenjes 76.31 KITUI County 42.63 60.95 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kitui central 82.05 Kitui east 83.97 Kitui rural 72.33 81.63 Kitui south 42.54 53.81 Kitui west 57.13 62.48 Mwingi central 38.47 Mwingi north 31.49 Mwingi west 39.93 54.49 MAKUENI County 59.32 63.14 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July compared to June. Kaiti 77.26 Kibwezi east 54.19 45.82 Kibwezi west 48.68 57.98 Kilome 47.02 Makueni 72.58 79.94 Mbooni 74.43 County Stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 62.92 61.88 Central Imenti 78.49 69.64 Igembe central 45.39 69.91 Igembe north 54.12 Igembe south 45.58 72.14 North Imenti 74.88 74.77 South Imenti 87.07 72.23 Tigania east 50.65 55.69 Tigania west 64.39 56.74 NYERI County 80.35 73.12 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kieni 68.65 Mathira 90.87 82.71 Mukurweini 91.12 87.57 Nyeri town 87.54 77.97 Othaya 75.83 69.83 82.64 77.77 KILIFI County 46.58 50.33 The vegetation condition in the county improved to above vegetation greenness in July from normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 51.89 47.24 Kaloleni 54.18 Kilifi north 34.17 52.81 Kilifi south 47.62 51.75 Magarini 44.77 49.53 Malindi 44.98 59.36 Rabai 53.37 54.79 KWALE County 64.58 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kinango 67.58 61.01 Lunga 62.24 66.27 Matuga 58.01 Msambweni County 69.65 72.24 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in July. Lamu east 68.48 65.74 Lamu west 70.33 75.99 TAITA TAVETA County 32.13 The county improved to normal vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 Taveta 23.38 38.66 37.98 Wundanyi 28.91 31.26 NAROK County 80.72 64.63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Emurua Dikirr 68.54 71.65 Kilgoris 73.81 56.89 Narok east 65.97 65.79 Narok north 76.33 66.27 Narok south 62.98 Narok west 89.71 68.17 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 16: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "August_2023.pdf": "AUGUST 2023 1.Drought Situation Overview Despite notable recovery attributed to the impacts of March to May (MAM) rains in Arid and Semi- Arid counties. The recovery is yet to be registered fully. Currently, one (1) county reported recovery phase, and nineteen counties reported normal drought phase situation. Drought situation thus remains alert in three (3) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of August 2023. The number of people in need of assistance stands at 2.8 Million currently following long rains (LRA) security assessment. Three counties including; Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Nineteen (19) counties namely; Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot and Isiolo are in Normal drought phase. One (1) county; Marsabit is in the Recovery drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 653,500 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,900 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, August, 2023 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 August 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the August 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received quite less amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging between 1mm to 25mm. The Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received considerable amount of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received low rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between 1mm to 25mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 26mm to 100mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. August 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for September 2023 The rainfall outlook for the month of September is illustrated in figure 3. Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted to receive Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period). Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny conditions with counties like Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting to receive near to below average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally receive near to below average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period) are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are near to below average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for September 2023. 1.1.3. Flooding Flooding was noted in Samburu County and the assessment is being conducted to estimate the damage caused by flooding. Figure 3. September 2023 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 4 indicates the trends in the vegetation condition index (VCI) for the month of July and that of August 2023. Marginal change in the month of August was noted where three counties depicted changes in VCI values. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August The month of August 2023 indicated slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of July 2023. The deterioration in vegetation condition is associated with the ongoing dry season after ceased long rains season. This dry season has led to drop in vegetation greenness since soil moisture has decreased. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Kajiado and Samburu recorded moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following eight (8) counties including; West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The July 2023 August 2023 following twelve (12) counties including; Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2023 worsened when compared to the previous month, July 2023 as shown in (Figure 4). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2023 is provided in Figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Kajiado, Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa, West), Turkana (East, North), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation greenness Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Baringo (Mogotio, Tiaty), Mandera (Lafey, North), Turkana (South, Loima, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Ijara, Fafi), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North, West), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi east), Meru (Igembe north, Tigania east, Tigania west), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris) Above normal Vegetation greenness Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Mandera (South, East), Turkana (Central), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, West, Eldas), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (North, South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere north, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi west, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage with respect to the previous month was noted across majority of the ASAL counties with about 70 percent reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse level was within the normal level for the month of August save for a few counties like Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta. Observed forage condition deterioration across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions that dominated most parts of the ASALs. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2023 Pasture Browse Baringo, Embu (Mbeere) Garissa, Samburu Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera, Turkana Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Narok Nyeri Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kwale Wajir Marsabit Embu (Mbeere) Garissa, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera Meru, Taita Taveta Narok, Samburu Tana River Turkana Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Wajir Marsabit 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair across most counties (60 percent) while that of goats and sheep was good in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 3). Estimated 40 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle as being good Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikir, East, North, South, West) while 18 percent of the counties indicated the body condition of goat as being equally good. The observed body condition over August was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2023 Catle GoatsSheep Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Kilifi Mandera Samburu Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Marsabit (Mbeere) Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Kwale Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. Approximately 18, 55, and 27 percent of the counties reported an improving, stable and worsening trend respectively. Milk produced over August was above, at par and below the long-term average (LTA) in about 59 and 32 percent of the counties (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Production Mandera Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kwale Laikipia Narok Nyeri Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta River Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Baringo Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Garissa, Kilifi Mandera Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Pokot Samburu Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Laikipia 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Endemic diseases were reported in Garissa, Kajiado, Samburu, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River. The diseases included suspected cases of Sheep and Goat Pox, Q-Fever in goats, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste Des Petits Ruminants, and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Trypanosomiasis, Foot Rot, Rabies and Orf. Besides that, a unique condition suspected to be either swayback syndrome or Molybdenum poisoning (toxicity) was experienced in various parts of Samburu County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 64 percent recorded above-average cattle prices with about 18 percent apiece reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices accordingly (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Kwale and Nyeri driven by the deteriorating body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2023 Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Mandera Samburu Kitui River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Pokot Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices A stable with a tendency to improve in the market price of goat was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Kwale and Lamu counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over August. Overall, majority of the counties (90 percent) reported prices that were above the normal price for the period with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kitui Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Marsabit Embu, Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Pokot Kwale 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and South East marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was almost complete and production was above average. However, destruction of crops by elephants was noted in some areas. Taita Taveta Harvesting was ongoing though the yield was expected to be below normal. Significant proportion of farmers in the Mixed Farming: Food crop Livestock livelihood zone did not plant due to late onset of the rains and the few who planted crops wilted due to moisture stress. Crop farmers are currently harvesting green maize and other crops such as green grams. Crop farmers are harvesting maize in all livelihood zones except the fishing zone. South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui The long rains ceased when maize was in a tussling stage leading to moisture stress which resulted to poor grain filling in most parts. Also, the late planted maize had a total crop failure with cow peas attacked by aphids which reduced production significantly. The actual crop production for most crops was 60-100 percent of the long- term average. Makueni Production of maize, green grams and cowpeas had declined by 60, 42 and 34 percent respectively. The decline in production was partly due to early cessation of the long rains and also infestation by Fall Armyworm (FAW) and African Armyworm (AAW). Agropastoral Baringo Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was almost being concluded. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Laikipia Some of the farmers who had planted early reported harvesting of maize although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the MAM rains and the poor off season rains of JJA rains and frostbite attacks. Narok Currently, some of crops like maize are at harvesting stage and at germination for beans with the condition being fair due to moisture stress. Moreover, most crops in the Pastoral Livelihood zone have not realized any harvest due to maize crop failure. 1.4.1 Maize prices Decline in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for Wajir that recorded an increase over the reference period. Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa reported prices that were above the usual price range in August as illustrated in table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by on-going harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Isiolo Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo Kilifi Kwale,Lamu Laikipia Makueni Meru, Samburu River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Mandera Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Marsabit 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source is between 2.6 kilometers and 8.4 kilometers with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranges between 1.6 kilometers and 7.1kilometers(km), with Narok recording lowest and Kajiado recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. 12 counties including Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River, Meru, Makueni and Nyeri indicated a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening Distance households to main water Kajiado, Nyeri Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta Pokot Embu, Isiolo Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Marsabit Mandera, Narok Embu, Baringo Mandera, Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kilifi, Kajiado Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Embu, Garissa Baringo Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Marsabit sources Tana River Turkana, Makueni Garisssa Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Kwale, Wajir Narok, Isiolo Kitui, Lamu Makueni Pokot Kwale, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Tana River Marsabit 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing area worsened in 10 counties with above LTA, while other counties are below LTA and at LTA respectively as depicted in table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend included: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Narok, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties was between 7.3 kilometers to 14.4 kilometers with Baringo reporting the lowest and Samburu recording the highest. In the semi-arid counties, the distance was 1.8 kilometers to 7.1 kilometers with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Kajiado County recording the highest distance. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Wajir Mandera West Pokot Narok Turkana Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Tana- River Nyeri Kajiado 1.6 Terms of trade In August, 2023, 87 percent of the counties reported a ToT that was below the respective long-term average depicting a stable trend in relation to the previous month. This is due to high fuel prices that have contributed to high maize prices against low goat prices across the ASAL counties. The counties are Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tan River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot and Kitui. However, compared to the previous period, there has been an improvement in about 78 percent of the counties and these include: Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Marsabit and West Pokot with the exception of Kajiado County that recorded a deteriorating trend (Table 11). Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Kilifi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kitui Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Wajir Mandera Pokot Narok Turkana Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Tana-River Nyeri Kajiado 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in four counties: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River and Turkana as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category. About seven counties reported a stable trend while the situation improved in the remaining nine counties. The worsening trend in the four mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence reduced milk consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 55 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was below the usual level for the period under analysis as shown in table Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, River, Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Marsabit Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Kwale Tharaka- Nithi West- Pokot, Isiolo, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Samburu Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Wajir Mandera, Meru, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa Tana River, Turkana Marsabit 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Kajiado, Samburu and Taita Taveta were classified at the Alert phase and on a worsening trend. Approximately 86 percent of the counties were at the Normal phase of drought with a worsening trend being noted in Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, and Tana River while stability was reported in 10 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Wajir with only Isiolo reporting an improving trend (Table 13). Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteri orating Normal Isiolo Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Wajir Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River Alert Kajiado, Samburu, Taita-Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities Installation of water resource level monitoring levels Development of water harvesting infrastructure especially in schools. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th August 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 55.93 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. The situation has begun to worsen Central 69.95 69.64 North 64.17 59.75 South 57.86 52.14 Ravine 64.65 74.16 Mogotio 51.95 43.44 Tiaty 49.24 37.02 MANDERA County 60.94 44.39 The county recorded a depreciation in vegetation cover from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 42.24 North 54.75 38.34 Banissa 32.31 28.69 34.58 South 86.88 66.22 70.57 60.75 TURKANA County 46.68 37.71 The county recorded a stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Turkana East and North has begun to worsen. 34.64 27.49 South 35.03 Loima 53.68 Central 51.94 51.59 54.41 43.29 North 43.03 33.93 MARSABIT County 51.36 49.26 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness during the month of June to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July Laisamis 49.69 45.33 Moyale 43.08 40.92 North Horr 52.85 52.06 79.49 76.98 WAJIR County 63.54 54.87 The county recorded a stability in the vegetation at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Tarbaj 76.89 57.34 North 63.71 52.18 South 53.13 48.76 77.42 72.58 Eldas 72.89 63.29 54.82 44.92 SAMBURU County 36.42 28.77 The county recorded a worsening trend in vegetation greenness 26.93 from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review North 27.99 50.42 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit GARISSA County 51.12 45.29 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala and township worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 31.44 25.91 Township 35.12 32.35 Ijara 48.58 39.33 42.75 37.13 Lagdera 76.73 Dadaab 63.48 56.05 ISIOLO County 55.81 55.84 The county noted a stability in vegetation condition at normal above vegetation greenness. North 48.64 50.13 South 66.77 64.57 RIVER County 46.57 40.52 The county and two of its sub counties noted a stability in vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. However, Bura noted moderate vegetation deficit. 34.82 Galole 50.12 43.17 Garsen 50.11 43.69 KAJIADO County 35.58 32.98 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Central 30.99 27.66 31.74 29.82 North 52.85 47.97 South 36.37 38.81 35.75 LAIKIPIA County 47.35 35.31 The County and its sub counties a stability in vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 57.42 49.34 THARAKA NITHI County 61.06 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Chuka 72.81 65.04 Maara 73.69 64.89 Tharaka 46.53 POKOT County 49.82 40.72 The county recorded a stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, Kacheliba recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot south 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 County 70.18 56.58 The county recorded a stability vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Manyatta 77.58 59.08 Mbeere north 62.18 Mbeere south 49.62 Runyenjes 67.19 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit KITUI County 60.95 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 82.05 78.09 Kitui east 83.97 81.04 Kitui rural 81.63 76.83 Kitui south 53.81 52.32 Kitui west 62.48 53.27 Mwingi central 62.48 Mwingi north 38.41 Mwingi west 54.49 45.16 MAKUENI County 63.14 59.91 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August when compared to the last month of July. Kaiti 77.26 82.39 Kibwezi east 45.82 Kibwezi west 57.98 53.23 Kilome 63.19 Makueni 79.94 73.08 Mbooni 82.91 County 59.55 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Buuri 61.88 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe central 69.91 63.27 Igembe north 54.12 49.31 Igembe south 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania east 55.69 46.91 Tigania west 56.74 49.06 NYERI County 73.12 64.96 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kieni 68.65 62.15 Mathira 82.71 63.63 Mukurweini 87.57 73.88 Nyeri town 77.97 57.73 Othaya 69.83 67.41 77.77 77.67 KILIFI County 50.33 51.45 The vegetation condition in the county remained stable at above vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 47.24 48.95 Kaloleni 64.73 Kilifi north 52.81 58.45 Kilifi south 51.75 57.48 Magarini 49.53 48.72 Malindi 59.36 Rabai 54.79 60.92 KWALE County 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kinango 61.01 63.77 Lunga Lunga 66.27 67.82 Matuga 58.01 64.75 Msambweni 52.31 County 72.24 62.03 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Lamu east 65.74 52.22 Lamu west 75.99 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit TAITA TAVETA County 33.69 The county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 36.43 Taveta 38.66 37.41 32.01 Wundanyi 31.26 25.82 NAROK County 64.63 54.66 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Kilgoris worsened to normal vegetation greenness. Emurua Dikirr 71.65 65.54 Kilgoris 56.89 49.26 Narok east 65.79 53.23 Narok north 66.27 61.53 Narok south 62.98 54.53 Narok west 68.17 53.91 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "September_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained stable in most of the ASAL counties in September 2023. This is attributed to close to normal performance and impacts of March to May (MAM) rains. Currently, 18 counties have reported Normal drought phase while five (5) reported Alert phase and require close monitoring. The number of people requiring relief assistance stands at 2.8 million based on the assessment of the impact of the March to May long rains on food security conducted in July. The five counties in the Alert drought phase are Laikipia, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River and Taita Taveta. The counties in Normal drought phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Marsabit, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Figure 1 illustrates the drought phase classification month September 2023. Figure 1. Drought Phase Classification -September 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 September 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the September 2023 monthly rainfall performance shows that though the October to December short rains season had not started in most ASAL counties, most parts received little amounts of rainfall, particularly the Pastoral Northeast cluster including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa which received between 1mm to 20mm. The Pastoral Northwest counties - Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu - received between 1mm to 50mm while the Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties received near- to-above average rainfall, except Embu and Nyeri which registered below average rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale and Kilifi received below average rainfall while the Northeast, Southeastern lowlands and the Northwestern region remained dry in September except Machakos which received above average rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for October 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir,Tana River and Garissa), Southeast Marginal Agriculture including Machakoes, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta) and North Western Kenya of (Turkana,Samburu) are likely to experience onset of seasonal rainfall from the third to fourth week of October. The expected total rainfall amounts for Northeast and Southeast lowlands are likely to be above the long-term average for October, Figure 2: September 2023 Rainfall Performance while Turkana and Samburu are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near-to-above long term average amounts for October. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado and Narok are likely to experience enhanced rainfall amounts exceeding the long term average for October and are likely to be from the third to fourth week of October. However, rainfall in Narok is likely to continue from September 2023. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and Tana River are likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for October. The rainfall outlook for October is shown in Figure 3. 1.1.3. Flooding Enhanced rainfall in most ASAL counties as provided in the outlook is likely to be characterised by localised incidences of flooding in particular zones as indicated in Figure 4. All the 23 ASAL counties have contingency plans in place and NDMA is currently monitoring the key hotspots as the short rains season starts. Figure 3: October 2023 Rainfall Forecast Figure 4: Flooding hotspots in ASAL counties. 1.2 Vegetation Condition A marginal change was noted in the vegetation condition index (VCI) in some of the ASAL counties during the month of September compared to August 2023, where three counties depicted changes in VCI values as indicated in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCI) of August and September 2023 There was slight decline in vegetation condition across the ASALs in September compared to August 2023. The decline is attributed to high temperatures. However, the condition is expected to improve with onset of the October to December short rains season. Nonetheless, none of ASAL counties indicated either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Five (5) counties including Taita Taveta, Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Laikipia reported moderate vegetation deficit, indicating slight deterioration in environmental indicators. Seven (7) counties, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Baringo, Garissa and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. 11 counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera recorded above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of September 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in September 2023 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage was noted across majority of ASAL counties, with about 83 reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair-to-good (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse condition were within the normal level for the month of September, save for a few counties such as Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia and Taita Taveta that recorded poor conditions. The observed deterioration of forage condition across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions in most parts of the ASALs. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Laikipia North Moderate Vegetation Deficit Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot, Laikipia Samburu (East, North, West), Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Bura, Turkana ( East, South, North), Kacheliba, Sigor, Mogotio, Tiaty, Balambala, Garissa Township, Kajiado (Central, East), Laikipia East Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok Baringo South, Ijara, Fafi, Kajiado (South, West), Magarini, Mwingi (North, West), Laikipia West, Kibwezi West, Mandera (North, West), Banissa, Laisamis, Moyale, Tigania (East,West),Taveta, Galole, Garsen, Tharaka, Loima, Turkana (Central, West) Wajir East, Kapenguria, Kilgoris,Narok( East, West, South). Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makweni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera Baringo (Central, North), Eldama Ravine, Embere (South, North), Manyatta, Runyenjes, Lagdera, Dadab, Isiolo (North, South), Kaloleni, Kilifi (North, South), Malindi, Rabai, Kitui (Central, South, West, East, Rural) Mwingi, Central, Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Lamu (East,West), Kaiti, Kilome, Makweni, Mbooni, Kibwezi West, Mandera (East, South),North-Horr, Saku, Buuri, IMENTI (Central, North, South),Igembe (Central, North, South), Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya,Tetu, Chuka, Maara, Tarbaj, Eldas, Wajir (North, West, South), Pokot South, Emurrua Dikirr, Narok North Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in September 2023. Pasture Browse Turkana Kitui Laikipia Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Makueni Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Wajir Meru North Kitui Makueni Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera Baringo Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Wajir West Pokot Meru North 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair-to-good all across all ASAL counties (Table 3).The observed body condition over September was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3: Livestock body condition in September 2023. Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Wajir West Pokot Meru North Mandera Baringo Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Samburu Tana River Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Meru North Mandera 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. However, approximately 50 of the counties reported below average milk production which could be attributed to low tropical livestock units (TLUs) as a result of previous failed seasons that resulted in livestock mortalities (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4: Milk production in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Isiolo Turkana Wajir Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Mandera Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Samburu Tana River Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Kajiado Makueni Marsabit Wajir Kwale Baringo Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kitui Kilifi Mandera Narok Nyeri 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Unconfirmed Incidences of endemic livestock diseases including Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), goatsheep pox, Heartwater disease and Mange were reported across most arid counties. Equally, suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease were reported in Embu, West Pokot, Samburu, and Narok Counties. Tick borne diseases such as anaplasmosis, babesiosis and East Coast Fever were recorded in majority of the counties, with reported cases of abortions among goats in some areas such as Kajiado West due to suspected Q-Fever disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties about 65 - recorded above-average cattle prices, with about 13 reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Meru and Tana River counties. Table 5: Cattle prices in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi, Wajir Kwale Mandera Marsabit Meru, Turkana Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui Makueni Narok Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Wajir Baringo Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. Overall, majority of the counties (95) reported prices that were above normal for the period, with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Baringo Mandera Nyeri Tana River Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Kwale Samburu 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current state of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Production was significantly reduced as a result of crop failure and destruction by aphids. The actual production for most crops was 60-100 of the long-term average. Agropastoral Baringo Most farmers have concluded harvesting various crops and land preparation was ongoing in preparation for the short rains season. Laikipia In September, some farms in the Mixed Farming Livelihood and some in the Marginal Mixed Farming reported harvesting of maize while others reported harvesting of beans and Irish potatoes. In other farms, maize crop is at maturity- to-harvesting stage, wheat at maturing-to-harvesting stage although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the March to May rains and poor June-July-August off-season rains and frostbite attacks (maize). Narok Currently, some of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at germination and knee-high stages for maize and beans are in good condition. West Pokot Most areas in the pastoral livelihood zones suffered crop failure due to moisture stress during the critical stages of flowering, tasseling and grain formation and farmers got little to no harvest at all. The affected wards include: Masol in Pokot Central Sub- County, Alale, Suam, Kodich and Kapchok in Pokot North Sub- County as well as Lower Chepareria in Kipkomo Sub- County. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the counties (over 95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 11 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, lamu, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana recorded an improving trend as result of ongoing harvesting. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in September 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend compared to the previous month. Distance to water source in arid counties is between 2.8 and 8.5 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 6.6 kilometres, with Kajiado recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources, September2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Kajiado, Nyeri, Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, West Pokot, Meru Embu, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui , Lamu, Marsabit , Mandera, Narok, Kwale, Wajir, Mandera Embu, Baringo Mandera, Tharaka Nithi, Narok, Isiolo Kitui, Lamu Makueni Baringo, Kilifi, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kwale, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Nyeri, Baringo, Samburu Taita Taveta, Mandera, Tana River, Turkana, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, West Pokot, Marsabit Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo, Embu Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Narok, Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Baringo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Makueni Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the trekking distance to water source from grazing areas worsened in 13 counties in September, while other counties were below long term average and at long term average respectively as depicted in Table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend include: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir, Marsabit and Mandera. Its also worth noting that seven (7) counties including Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot recorded above long term average distances from livestock grazing areas to main water sources. The average livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water points in arid counties was between 4 and 15.4 kilometres, with Lamu reporting the lowest and Samburu the highest. In semi-arid counties, the distance was between 2.4 and 7.7 kilometres, with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Taita Taveta the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot Kwale Narok Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Marsabit, Wajir Garissa, Kwale, Mandera and Meru Narok Baringo Kwale Kajiado Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Taveta, Turkana Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi Kitui, Tana River Wajir, Marsabit, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera 1.6 Terms of Trade In September, 48 of ASAL counties reported Terms of Trade that were below the respective long term average, indicating an improvement compared to the previous month. Most of the counties are close to long term average, depicting an improving trend in household purchasing power as result of ongoing harvest as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in September 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Narok, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and Makueni Baringo, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, TaitaTaveta, West Pokot, Meru Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Tukana and Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Makueni 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was above long term average in 52 of the counties, with 11 counties on a worsening trend including: Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Meru and Turkana. The poor nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, thus livelihoods are still on recovery mode and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference measurements) in September 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, five counties including Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana are classified at the Alert drought phase and on a worsening trend, while 18 counties are at the Normal phase with a worsening trend being noted in Kitui, Makueni, Garissa and Nyeri as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in September 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Marsabit Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kajiado, Lamu, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Kwale, West Pokot, Mandera, Meru Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Garissa Alert Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana Alarm Emergency - Recovery 3.0 Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. 3.2 Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.3 Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities. Installation of water resource level monitoring equipment. Development of water harvesting infrastructure, especially in schools. 3.4 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.5 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.6 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 3.7 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th September 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Greenness Drought CategoriesRemarks County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th VCI-3 month as at 27th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in September 2023 but the situation has started deteriorating, with some sub- counties registering moderate vegetation deficit. Central 69.64 68.57 North 59.75 52.43 South 52.14 Ravine 74.16 Mogotio 43.44 28.89 Tiaty 37.02 30.95 Mandera County 44.39 54.14 The county recorded an improvement from normal vegetation greenness in August to above normal vegetation greenness in the September 2023. Lafey 42.24 48.41 North 38.34 49.65 Banissa 28.69 41.51 34.58 45.62 South 66.22 60.75 69.76 Turkana County 37.71 32.52 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation greenness at moderate vegetation in September from normal vegetation greenness in August. The condition in Turkana East, South and North has started worsening. 27.49 23.34 South 35.03 28.31 Loima Central 51.59 49.99 43.29 35.06 North 33.93 30.48 Marsabit County 49.26 49.06 The county remained stable (normal vegetation greenness) in September compared to the previous month. Laisamis 45.33 42.15 Moyale 40.92 44.01 North Horr 52.06 52.95 76.98 72.24 Wajir County 60.11 59.46 The county recorded stability in vegetation at above normal vegetation greenness in September compared to the previous month. Tarbaj 57.34 66.42 North 52.18 57.63 South 48.76 52.42 72.58 75.09 Eldas 63.29 66.42 44.92 49.96 Samburu County 28.77 24.37 The county recorded a worsening trend with a moderate vegetation greenness in September. 26.93 24.86 North 27.99 22.27 29.68 Garissa County 45.29 47.35 The county experienced normal vegetation greenness in September compared to previous month. However, Balambala, Garissa Township, Ijara and Fafi showed moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 25.91 24.73 Township 32.35 32.67 Ijara 39.33 44.72 37.13 39.75 Lagdera 76.73 80.69 Dadaab 56.05 53.72 Isiolo County 55.84 62.19 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness compared to previous months North 50.13 57.05 South 64.57 70.05 Tana River County 40.52 The county remained stable in normal vegetation greenness, except Bura Sub- County that recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 34.82 32.84 Galole 43.17 42.68 Garsen 43.69 Kajiado County 32.98 35.46 The county recorded a slight improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in September compared to previous months. 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 49.34 Kacheliba Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot South 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 County 56.58 70.89 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 59.08 Mbeere North 62.18 70.57 Kitui County 54.07 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui Central 78.09 74.48 Kitui East 81.04 74.22 Kitui Rural 76.83 74.78 Kitui South 52.32 51.61 Kitui West 53.27 52.34 Mwingi Central 62.48 55.88 Mwingi North 38.41 36.35 Mwingi West 45.16 47.29 Makueni County 59.91 60.45 Kaiti 82.39 88.99 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in September compared to August. Kibwezi East 41.32 Kibwezi West 53.23 51.38 Kilome 63.19 64.99 Makueni 73.08 74.02 Mbooni 82.91 87.67 County 59.55 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in August. Buuri 61.88 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe Central 69.91 63.27 Igembe North 54.12 49.31 Igembe South 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania East 55.69 46.91 Tigania West 56.74 49.06 Nyeri County 64.96 65.87 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in September. Kieni 62.15 Mathira 63.63 70.56 Mukurweini 73.88 82.84 Nyeri Town 57.73 52.56 Othaya 67.41 82.17 77.67 84.09 Kilifi County 51.45 49.62 The county recorded Normal vegetation green in September compared to above vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 48.95 44.25 Kaloleni 64.73 59.21 Kilifi North 58.45 57.81 Kilifi South 57.48 57.91 Magarini 48.72 48.14 Malindi Rabai 60.92 60.21 Kwale County 57.57 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in September. Kinango 63.77 55.75 Lunga Lunga 67.82 55.95 Matuga 64.75 69.19 Msambweni 52.31 56.93 County 62.03 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu East 52.22 Lamu West 69.82 Taita Taveta County 33.69 32.57 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in the month of September when compared to previous months. Mwatate 36.43 34.77 Taveta 37.41 32.01 30.91 Wundanyi 25.82 23.72 Narok County 45.73 Emurua Dikirr 65.54 62.21 The county and all its sub counties recorded Normal vegetation deficit, except for Emurua Dikirr and Narok North that recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Kilgoris 49.26 40.91 Narok East 53.23 40.62 Narok North 61.53 53.98 Narok South 54.53 47.15 Narok West 53.91 43.79 West Pokot County 40.72 33.17 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 21.73 Kapenguria 47.75 39.26 Pokot South 67.06 60.85 Sigor 40.18 32.48 Tharaka Nithi County 56.56 Th county Recorded above normal vegetation greenness Tharaka Nithi 69.77 ChukaIgamb angombe 65.04 72.86 Maara 64.89 46.37 Tharaka 46.53 32.52 Laikipia Laikipia 35.31 24.85 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit as opposed to previous months the showed normal vegetation Laikipia East 30.99 20.26 Laikipia North 28.93 18.36 Laikipia West 49.34 39.21 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 6: Drought Phase Classification",
            "October_2023.pdf": "October 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The impacts of the October to December 2023 short rains season, which is characterised by El Nino phenomenon, has been realised in all Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Twenty (20) counties reported Normal drought phase in October. They include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Three (3) counties including Samburu, Laikipia and Taita Taveta are in Alert Phase but positive impacts of the ongoing rains are reversing the drought situation. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in October 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification - October 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 October 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the October 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received above average rainfall due to the ongoing El Nino episode that had onset in the second week of October. The Pastoral Northeast counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa and Pastoral Northwest counties comprising Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received the highest amounts of rainfall ranging between 71mm to 201mm. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui received relatively high amounts of rainfall in October ranging between 21mm to 201mm whereas the Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good amounts between 50mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low amounts ranging between 21mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for November 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihood zone (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted at probabilities of above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience above average rainfall while Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting at increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The Agro-pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience above average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) counties are forecasted to recieve Figure 2: October 2023 Rainfall Performance above average rainfall, while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above average rainfall with eastern parts of Marsabit and Samburu to received increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The rainfall outlook for November is illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding Some ASAL counties including Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River experienced flooding. In Mandera and Wajir counties, Bute and Elwak areas were submerged. Flooding in Garissa County resulted to washing away of a section of the Garissa - Modogashe highway. Flooding in Tana River County, especially along River Tana, led to displacement after houses were submerged. Some families lost livestock in the flooding incidents. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Despite the time lag between the precipitation period and vegetation regeneration, regeneration was evident in October. Generally, the vegetation condition in October showed great improvement when compared to September. Figure 3. November 2023 Rainfall forecast. The month of October registered improvement in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (September). This is linked to the ongoing short rains season, which has been linked to El Nino phenomenon. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Laikipia and Samburu recorded Moderate vegetation deficit with prospects of improvement. The following six (6) counties including; Turkana, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kilifi, Tana River and Garissa recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following fourteen (14) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kitui, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2023 is better when compared to the previous month, September 2023 as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides the situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for September and October 2023 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in October 2023. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Turkana (South, East) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Samburu (East, North), Tana River (Bura), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta), Laikipia (East, North, Laikipia Normal vegetation greenness Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot Turkana (Central, West, Loima), Wajir (West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North), Narok (Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Laikipia (Laikipia West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok Isiolo Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banissa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Kajiado (North), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West and Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi, West, Kilome, Makueni and Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central- Imenti, Igembe , Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti ,South Imenti Tigania East ,Tigania West),Nyeri(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Pokot South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse was fair to good across arid and semi-arid counties as shown in Table 2. The ongoing short rains seasons have resulted in regeneration of pasture and browse whose condition is normal compared to similar periods in normal years. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in October 2023. Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kilifi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition Thirty-six percent (36) of ASAL counties reported good livestock body condition for cattle while the others registered fair conditions. The body condition for goats was good in 59 of the counties and fair in the rest. Generally, the body condition of most livestock is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributed to due to good improvement in vegetation. The ongoing rains will enable further improvement especially for cattle as pasture and browse conditions improve. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in October. Table 3: Livestock body condition in October 2023. Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Narok Wajir West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Turkana Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Marsabit 1.3.3 Milk Production There was an increase in the trend of milk production in October compared to the previous month in the majority of counties. Six counties showed an improving trend, with the exceptions being Garissa, Makueni, Meru and Tana River, which experienced a worsening trend as result of flooding, affecting the feeding regime. The details of milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Milk Production in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Isiolo Mandera Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kitui Baringo Garissa Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Kilifi Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Narok Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Pokot Garissa Makueni Tana River 1.3.4 Livestock Diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle Prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) experienced above-average cattle prices in October. None of the counties recorded below long-term average prices in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The improvements are as result of enhanced rains, which have led to improved body condition. None of the County recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Narok Nyeri Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices All of the counties reported prices that were above normal for the period, except Lamu and Nyeri, whose prices were below the long-term average. Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Garissa Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Wajir Kwale Baringo Kajiado Kitui Makueni Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Mandera Nyeri Tana River Samburu 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Agriculture Kilifi First weeding in some parts of the county. Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in markets remained high. Kwale There were no crops in farms as harvesting was complete and majority of the households were planting and preparing land for the short rains season. Kitui Normal land preparation and planting for the short rains season was ongoing in most areas across the livelihood zones. South East Marginal Agriculture Crops were at germination stage in areas which undertook early planting. Makueni Farmers across the livelihood zones were busy preparing their farms in readiness for the upcoming 2023 October to December short rains. Tharaka Nithi Most farmers were weeding their crops while a few were still expanding their land ready for the short rainy season planting 1.4.1 Maize Prices Twenty-two counties (95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 16 counties including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru and West Pokot recorded a stable trend resulting from ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvests within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in October 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Narok, Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Baringo Kilifi Makueni Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Garissa Narok 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to Water for Households Household distances to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only six counties reporting above LTA.The distances in the six counties is expected to improve with the ongoing enhanced rains. Distance to water sources in arid counties stood between 2.2 and 8.5 kilometers, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Samburu reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.2 and 7.5 kilometers, with Meru recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance househol ds to water sources Garissa Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Taita- Taveta Kwale, Turkana Wajir Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok, Tana River Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Wajir West- Pokot Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta 1.5.2 Access to Water for Livestock The livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only 6 counties reporting above LTA but on improving trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 6.8 to 14.9 kilometers, with Baringo reporting the shortest distance and Garissa reporting the longest. The distance in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 and 8.3 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Kitui the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance livestock grazing area to water sources Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Garissa Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Narok Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Thara Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Mandera Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Samburu Garissa Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Turkana Pokot Narok Makueni 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were favourable and on improving trend compared to the previous month, with 65 of counties reporting improving trend. The improving terms of trade are as result of improved livestock prices, coupled with ongoing harvests across the counties. The terms of trade are likely to improve as result of ongoing enhanced rain as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of trade (ToT) Garissa Isiolo Mandera Narok Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Pokot Turkana Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta West-Pokot Meru Kwale Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka- Nithi Tukana Wajir Garissa Makueni 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation in ASAL counties is generally stable and expected to improve with ongoing enhanced rains. The current poor health and nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, hence livelihoods are still on recovery mode, and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) in October 2023. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kajiado Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Pokot Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Kitui Mandera Baringo Taita Taveta Pokot Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Samburu River Turkana 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Samburu, Taita Taveta and Laikipia are classified at the Alert drought phase while 20 counties - Baringo, Nyeri, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in October 2023. Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok Tharaka Nithi, Pokot, Nyeri(Kieni) Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni,, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi Alert Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting households exposed to flood risks. b) Livestock sector Monitoring on livestock disease outbreaks, especially those associated with wet conditions. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. d) Health and nutrition sector Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). e) Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource-use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. g) Coordination Sensitise communities and enhance awareness on enhanced rains and associated negative impacts. Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) for effective response coordination. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th October 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Greenness Drought CategoriesRemarks COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month as at 29th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Above normal vegetation greenness. 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness. 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit. 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit. Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, with improvement registered across the county. Central 68.57 73.32 North 52.43 South 54.32 Ravine 68.81 Mogotio 28.89 39.24 Tiaty 30.95 44.35 MANDERA County 54.14 60.57 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness compared to previous month of September. Lafey 48.41 54.54 North 49.65 58.58 Banissa 41.51 56.11 45.62 56.01 South 73.54 69.76 TURKANA County 32.52 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in October compared 23.34 28.07 to moderate vegetation in September, with an improvement in vegetation. The condition in Turkana East and South remained stable. South 28.31 29.72 Loima 41.47 Central 49.99 47.81 35.06 38.85 North 30.48 32.42 MARSABIT County 49.06 50.08 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October compared to Normal vegetation greenness in September. Improvement was experienced across the county. Laisamis 42.15 43.28 Moyale 44.01 43.58 North Horr 52.95 54.53 72.24 68.62 WAJIR County 59.46 55.01 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in October. Tarbaj 66.42 67.32 North 57.63 57.41 South 52.42 53.42 75.09 47.11 Eldas 66.42 63.26 49.96 58.63 SAMBURU County 28.77 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to previous month. 26.93 North 27.99 27.59 31.81 GARISSA County 47.35 46.09 When compared to the previous month, the vegetation greenness in the county remained stable. Balambala and Garissa Township had a moderate vegetation deficit. Balambala 24.73 21.49 Township 32.67 30.89 Ijara 44.72 56.22 39.75 39.61 Lagdera 80.69 69.59 Dadaab 53.72 ISIOLO County 62.19 59.52 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in October compared to the previous month of September. North 57.05 55.46 South 70.05 65.72 TANA RIVER County 38.88 The county recorded normal vegetation deficit in October compared to the previous month, except Bura Sub-County, which recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 32.84 28.38 Galole 42.68 Garsen 47.48 KAJIADO County 35.46 44.72 Vegetation greenness was normal in October compared to the previous month. Kajiado Central and East saw a slight improvement from Moderate to Normal Vegetation. Central 28.99 37.63 32.83 38.36 North 45.74 52.73 South 35.41 40.05 58.11 LAIKIPIA County 24.85 27.19 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. 20.26 28.06 North 18.36 20.41 39.21 39.46 THARAKA NITHI County 56.56 56.46 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review compared to previous months. Chuka 69.77 75.87 Maara 72.86 Tharaka 42.39 POKOT County 33.17 42.91 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review as compared to moderate vegetation deficit in September. Slight improvement was witnessed at the sub-counties from moderate to normal vegetation. Kacheliba 21.73 35.13 Kapenguria 49.01 Pokot south 60.85 62.11 Sigor 32.48 40.59 County 61.49 69.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 69.45 79.56 Mbeere north 65.71 Mbeere south 52.81 60.36 Runyenjes 75.47 87.22 KITUI County 54.07 71.91 The county recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central 74.48 62.29 Kitui east 74.22 73.16 Kitui rural 74.78 48.81 Kitui south 51.61 54.99 Kitui west 52.34 Mwingi central 55.88 35.33 Mwingi north 36.35 55.41 Mwingi west 47.29 71.91 MAKUENI County 60.45 59.84 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October compared to September. Kaiti 88.99 87.62 Kibwezi east 41.32 41.05 Kibwezi west 51.38 50.05 Kilome 64.99 65.39 Makueni 74.02 73.83 Mbooni 87.67 86.55 County 59.55 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub- counties. Buuri 50.75 Central Imenti 67.44 56.66 Igembe central 71.29 72.73 Igembe north 63.27 62.32 Igembe south 49.31 55.11 North Imenti 64.01 63.39 South Imenti 74.55 73.79 Tigania east 73.11 79.88 Tigania west 46.91 53.62 NYERI County 65.87 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October and September, with stability across the county showing stability. Kieni 55.22 Mathira 70.56 73.09 Mukurweini 82.84 80.53 Nyeri town 52.56 51.46 Othaya 82.17 85.78 84.09 81.66 KILIFI County 49.62 41.72 The county maintained Normal vegetation green in the month of October, as compared to September. However, Ganze Sub- County deteriorated Ganze 44.25 32.89 Kaloleni 59.21 47.16 from normal vegetation to moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 57.81 53.66 Kilifi south 57.91 53.78 Magarini 48.14 41.52 Malindi 53.29 Rabai 60.21 54.33 KWALE County 57.57 51.16 The vegetation condition index recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in both October, and September respectively. Kinango 55.75 46.09 Lunga 55.95 51.34 Matuga 69.19 70.57 Msambweni 56.93 60.64 County 70.39 The county and all sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu east 54.62 Lamu west 69.82 79.51 TAITA TAVETA County 32.57 29.22 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to the previous months. However, Taveta sub-county recorded worsening trend from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Mwatate 34.77 29.05 Taveta 30.93 30.91 28.78 Wundanyi 23.72 26.64 NAROK County 45.73 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October as opposed to normal vegetation greenness. This indicated an improvement. Emurua Dikirr 62.21 75.88 Kilgoris 40.91 57.84 Narok east 40.62 43.35 Narok north 53.98 46.37 Narok south 47.15 58.43 Narok west 43.79 63.92 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "November_2023.pdf": "November 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Impacts of the October-December short rains season, which is characterised by an El Nio phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, have been realised in all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties. Based on the drought phase classification, all the 23 counties1 reported normal conditions in November. An assessment of the impact of 2023 March-May Long Rains season on food and nutrition security projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance during the October 2023 to January 2024 period would drop to 1.5 million from 2.8 million in July due to good performance of the Short Rains season. However, the negative effects of the enhanced rainfall continue to undermine food and nutrition security situation following the flooding reported in various ASAL counties. The situation is further compounded by destruction of road and communication network, which has limited the flow of food and other essential commodities in local markets. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in November 2023. 1 Samburu, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo Figure 1: Drought phase classification in November 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 November 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the November 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several areas in ASAL counties received above average rainfall due to El Nino conditions that continued with high intensity in various parts. Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties - Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui - received the highest rainfall amounts in November ranging between 200 to 1,000mm. The Pastoral Northeast counties, which include Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa, also received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 300 to 400mm. Pastoral Northwest counties (Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu) received high rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm. However, parts Turkana County did not receive any rainfall. The Agropastoral cluster, including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm while the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received relatively high amounts of rainfall ranging between 101 to 500mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 December 2023 Rainfall Outlook The forecast for the Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region comprising Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa counties indicates probability of near-avaerage to above- average rainfall. Parts of Southeast Marginal Agriculture zone, which includes Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, are forecasted to experience above-average rainfall while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone counties (Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and Baringo) are expected to experience above-average rainfall. The forecast for Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale - indicates above-average rainfall, while the Pastoral Northwest region (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) is projected to receive near- average to above-average rainfall, with the eastern parts of Marsabit, northern Samburu and the entire Turkana County set to experience near-average rainfall. Figure 3 shows rainfall forecast for December 2023. Figure 2: November 2023 Rainfall Performance 1.1.3 Impact of Floods Most ASAL counties, including Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River, experienced heavy flooding. Out of 160 casualties in the country as at early December, two thirds were reported in ASAL counties, especially Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo and Garissa. Flooding in Garissa and Tana River counties resulted in displacement of households, property damage and destruction of infrastructure such as roads and health facilities. For instance, sections of critical roads such as the Garissa - Modogashe road and the main road linking Hola in Tana River and Garissa were washed away, curtailing transport and supply of essential commodities. Floods also disrupted the movement of goods to Wajir and Mandera counties, leading to hike in commodity prices. Figure 3: December 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The enhanced rainfall in November continued to improve vegetation condition as regeneration is noted across ASAL counties. Consequently, none of the ASAL counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Only one county - Taita Taveta recorded overall Moderate vegetation deficit, thus requiring close monitoring and contingency planning. A few sub-counties in three more counties also registered moderate deficit. These are Balambala and Township in Garissa, Bura in Tana River and Kajiado South. Seven counties, including Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, recorded Normal vegetation greenness while the remaining 15 ASAL counties recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. These are Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Kwale. Generally, the vegetation condition in November showed great improvement compared to October as illustrated in Fig 4. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for October and November 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2023 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in November 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Taita Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta) Normal vegetation greenness Samburu Tana River Laikipia Kitui Garissa Kilifi Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, North), Wajir (South, West), Samburu (East, West), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West), Nyeri (Nyeri Town), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo Mandera Turkana Marsabit Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Nyeri Kwale Narok Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Tiaty), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banissa, West), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku, Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Samburu (North) Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere, North, South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West) Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition About 82 of ASAL counties recorded good pasture condition while the rest posted fair condition. The browse condition was good in 87 of counties and fair in the rest as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are normal as compared to normal years and compared to October. The ongoing Short Rains season has led to full growth of pasture and browse. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - November 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kajiado Makueni Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the body condition of most livestock species is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributable to continued improvement in vegetation condition. The current body condition for cattle was good at 61 and fair at 39 in ASAL counties. Body condition for goats was good at 74 and fair at 26 in the arid and semi- arid counties. The good performance of the ongoing rains will lead to further improvement of livestock body conditions as pasture and browse conditions improve further. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in November. Table 3: Livestock body condition in November 2023 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.3.3 Milk production The month of November noted an increase in the trend of milk production compared to October in majority of the counties. However, three counties - Garissa, Meru and Kajiado which showed a worsening trend. On the other hand, Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir counties above normal range milk production levels. However, its worth noting that milk production in 11 ASAL counties is below the average for a normal year due to low livestock numbers. These are Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi , Kwale, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot. Table 4 shows detailed milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 4: Milk production - November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Production Baringo Isiolo Makueni Mandera Narok Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Kitui Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Makueni Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Laikipia Narok Wajir Pokot Garissa Kajiado 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot counties. These include unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Foot and Mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) recorded above-average cattle prices during the month of November. No county recorded below long-term average prices compared to similar periods during a normal year. An improving trend was observed in Embu, Garissa, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties. However, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5 below. Table 5: Cattle prices in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Taita- Taveta Narok Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat prices All of the counties reported prices above the long-term average. Stability was observed in market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition was driven by availability of browse and water. However, prices in Kajiado declined due to large volumes of goats presented in markets. Table 6: Goat prices in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Prices Baringo, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Mandera, Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Kajiado Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Narok Samburu Tharaka - Nithi Turkana Wajir Mandera Kilifi Kwale 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current status of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Most farmers in all the livelihood zones have planted maize crop. Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded and supply in markets remained high. Agropastoral Baringo Farmers in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone were harvesting green grams and other short-term crops. Most farmers in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone also planted tomatoes, millet and sorghum. Laikipia The main activity on farms across the county was planting and weeding for early grown crops. Crops were at different stages and exhibiting good condition. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were past knee-high stages for maize, while beans were in fair-to-good condition. Pokot The main crops planted were beans and potatoes, which were planted in the Mixed Farming and Agropastoral zones. Beans were at pod formation stage, with harvests expected beginning December. 1.4.1 Maize prices Above long-term average maize prices were recorded in 22 counties. However, 13 counties, including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru, Kitui, Kwale and Laikipia, recorded a stable trend as result of ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed in November could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvesting within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. The counties with a worsening trend are among those that experienced floods, affecting markets. Table 8: Maize prices in November 2023 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water sources in 22 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 20 counties. In November, distance to water sources in arid counties was between 1.6 and 7.7 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.5 and 4.6 kilometres, with Meru recording lowest and Makueni recording highest distances. The trend in distances covered by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Narok Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Mandera Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Baringo Kilifi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kitui Kwale Laikipia Garissa Marsabit Tana River Wajir Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance from households to main water sources Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale Mandera Narok 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock distance to water sources in 18 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 21 counties. Only Laikipia County registered above long term average distances while Kwale and Mandera reported a stable trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 2.7 to 10.9 kilometres, with Isiolo reporting the shortest distance and Mandera the longest. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.6 and 6.1 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Baringo the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsen Distance livestock grazing area to main water sources Laikipia Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Kwale 1.6 Terms of Trade About 39 of ASAL counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Wajir and Makueni, recorded below long-term average Terms of Trade, indicating less favorable terms of trade. However, most of these counties recorded an improving trend, Garissa, Kwale, Tana River and Wajir registering a worsening state as illustrated in Table 11. The notable high cereal prices in most of the counties continue to undermine household purchasing power. Table 11: Terms of Trade in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade Isiolo, Kilifi, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot Marsabit, Mandera Kitui Kwale Laikipia Samburu Tana River Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Lamu, Wajir Makueni Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Lamu, Taita Taveta,West Pokot, Embu, Kilifi Kajiado Makueni Garissa Kwale Tana River Wajir 1.7 Health and Nutrition The health and nutrition situation in majority of the Asals counties was above the long-term average, with only eight counties on a worsening trend. These include Garissa, Makueni, Kwale, Kilifi, Nyeri, Meru, Baringo and Tharaka Nithi. The residual effects of previous failed seasons continue to lead to poor nutrition status in these counties. The local livelihoods are still in recovery mode. The situation is further affected by low milk availability at household level due to reduced livestock numbers and current extreme weather variability as evidenced by Elnino conditions. The nutrition status is as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle upper arm circumference - MUAC-) in November 2023 Indicator Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Nyeri Tana River Turkana Mandera Kajiado Marsabit Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Tana- River Turkana Wajir Garissa Makueni Kwale Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Tharaka- Nithi 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 counties are classified at the Normal drought phase. Nine of the counties continue to show an improving trend as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in November 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting households affected by floods. 2. Livestock sector: Vaccination against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever; Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate El-Nino response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th November 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY County VCI-3 month VCI-3 month Colour values month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 60.23 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Mogotio maintained normal vegetation greenness. Central 73.32 71.64 North 67.51 South 54.32 61.33 Ravine 68.81 62.19 Mogotio 39.24 42.35 Tiaty 44.35 59.92 MANDERA County 60.57 73.83 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness compared October. Lafey 54.54 71.43 North 58.58 71.92 Banissa 56.11 67.04 56.01 72.45 South 73.54 84.95 65.57 TURKANA County 50.82 During the month under review, the county recorded improved to above-normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. 28.07 South 29.72 41.24 Loima 41.47 60.32 Central 47.81 50.72 38.85 64.19 North 32.42 47.27 MARSABI County 50.08 65.48 The county recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to October. Laisamis 43.28 Moyale 43.58 57.49 North Horr 54.53 70.31 68.62 81.79 WAJIR County 55.01 55.45 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in November, remaining stable. Tarbaj 67.32 73.54 North 57.41 73.14 South 53.42 45.28 47.11 45.14 Eldas 63.26 52.29 58.63 56.82 SAMBURU County 45.56 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit in October to normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 42.28 North 27.59 31.81 43.22 GARISSA County 46.09 46.89 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness in November. Balambala 21.49 25.92 Township 30.89 29.39 Ijara 56.22 39.61 43.41 Lagdera 69.59 51.69 Dadaab 43.62 ISIOLO County 59.52 55.06 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in November, which was stable when compared to the previous month. North 55.46 51.25 South 65.72 60.89 RIVER County 38.88 38.78 Normal vegetation deficit in November, with Bura Subcounty registering moderate vegetation greenness. 28.38 30.01 Galole 37.34 Garsen 47.48 47.11 KAJIADO County 44.72 44.63 Kajiado county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness the previous month to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Central 37.63 36.47 38.36 37.88 North 52.73 55.23 South 32.09 58.11 62.07 LAIKIPIA County 27.19 Improvement in vegetation greenness form moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 28.06 47.75 North 20.41 37.74 39.46 44.17 THARAKA NITHI County 56.46 54.63 Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review compared to previous months. Chuka 75.87 69.31 Maara 59.71 Tharaka 42.39 47.47 POKOT County 42.91 57.97 Improvement in vegetation greenness from normal the previous month to above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kacheliba 35.13 52.07 Kapenguria 49.01 62.69 Pokot south 62.11 Sigor 40.59 59.03 County 69.41 68.88 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.56 71.18 Mbeere north 76.35 Mbeere south 60.36 62.09 Runyenjes 87.22 74.85 KITUI County 71.91 44.07 The county deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kitui central 62.29 60.22 Kitui east 73.16 50.95 Kitui rural 48.81 59.92 Kitui south 54.99 41.46 Kitui west 47.46 Mwingi central 35.33 39.07 Mwingi north 55.41 42.27 Mwingi west 71.91 52.18 MAKUENI County 59.84 50.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to October. Kaiti 87.62 75.76 Kibwezi east 41.05 35.76 Kibwezi 50.05 Kilome 65.39 57.04 Makueni 73.83 58.21 Mbooni 86.55 66.38 County 60.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across all the sub-counties. Buuri 50.75 Central Imenti 56.66 65.05 Igembe central 72.73 64.63 Igembe north 62.32 63.75 Igembe south 55.11 62.81 North Imenti 63.39 65.05 South Imenti 73.79 63.93 Tigania east 79.88 58.82 Tigania west 53.62 58.99 NYERI County 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kieni 55.22 Mathira 73.09 58.61 Mukurweini 80.53 62.89 Nyeri town 51.46 48.76 Othaya 85.78 72.98 81.66 67.42 KILIFI County 41.72 39.98 The county retained Normal vegetation greenness in November. However, Ganze Sub-county remained the same at moderate vegetation deficit. Ganze 32.89 33.15 Kaloleni 47.16 46.43 Kilifi north 53.66 51.96 Kilifi south 53.78 48.46 Magarini 41.52 Malindi 53.29 47.81 Rabai 54.33 50.52 KWALE County 51.16 51.67 Above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable compared to the previous month. Kinango 46.09 43.99 Lunga Lunga 51.34 60.77 Matuga 70.57 65.54 Msambweni 60.64 63.91 County 70.39 74.97 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in November. Lamu east 54.62 61.77 Lamu west 79.51 TAITA TAVETA County 29.22 26.75 The county retained moderate vegetation deficit in November. Mwatate 29.05 26.18 Taveta 30.93 28.78 27.42 Wundanyi 26.64 26.44 NAROK County 64.27 Above normal vegetation greenness in November when compared to the last month of October Emurua Dikirr 75.88 81.97 Kilgoris 57.84 68.91 Narok east 43.35 47.76 Narok north 46.37 45.91 Narok south 58.43 64.52 Narok west 63.92 76.62 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "December_2023.pdf": "December 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Majority of the Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties experienced rainfall over the first ten days of December, albeit with reduced intensity compared to November. However, most of the ASAL counties registered cessation of the October-November-December rains during the month under review, except. Consequently, all the counties were categorised under the Normal drought phase based on the range of indicators monitored (environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators fell within usual ranges). The assessment of the impact of 2023 Long Rains on food and nutrition security conducted last July 2023 projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance October 2023 through January 2024 period would be 1.5 million due to above normal rainfall. However, negative impacts of the enhanced rainfall in some counties has undermined the food and nutrition security situation. Response interventions by the Government other stakeholders mitigated negative impacts to a considerable extent. The functioning of markets as well as flow of food and other commodities is returning to normal across the ASAL counties. The planned multi-sectoral assessment of the performance of the October-December short rains on food and nutrition security will provide the actual number of people in need of humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in December 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 December 2023 Rainfall Performance The month of December normally marks the cessation of the short rains season. Analysis of the rainfall performance in December indicates that most ASAL counties received less rainfall compared November. Generally, weather conditions were prevalent in most places, with a few areas over the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region experiencing occasional rainfall that was near to above average. Marsabit, Narok and Wajir recorded rainfall amounts that were below 25 of normal, with Mandera not receiving any rainfall over that period. Garissa, Laikipia, Moyale and Nyeri counties recorded amounts that were 28-37 of normal, while rainfall reported in some parts of Kilifi such as Malindi and Embu was about 60 of the long term mean. Among the areas that experienced near-normal rainfall ranging from 90 to 115 of normal were Voi, Meru and Kitui. Some counties experienced above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. These include parts of Kilifi such as Mtwapa and Msabaha, and Lamu whose percentages ranged from 165 to 180 of the usual rainfall. The highest monthly total rainfall exceeding 225mm was recorded in Embu and Taita Taveta counties. Additionally, isolated storms were witnessed in some areas, especially in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) cluster such as Kitui, where rainfall ranging from 125 to 135mm was recorded in one day. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2024 The rainfall outlook for January is as shown in Figure 3. Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail for most of the month over several parts. Most parts of the Northern Pastoral cluster are expected to remain generally dry, though a few areas may experience occasional rainfall during the last week of the month. These include a few areas in Narok (near-to-above normal), the south-eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta), Nyeri, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu and the coastal region (Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Southern parts of Tana River). A few areas over Southern Garissa are likely to receive occasional rainfall from the third week of the month. Light to moderate rainfall is expected during the fourth week of January in a few areas over West Pokot, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia. Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to experience temperatures ranging from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius, with a few areas anticipated to receive rainfall at the beginning of the month and over the fourth week. Intermittent rainfall likely to be near-to-above the long-term average amounts is expected across January in Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and eastern parts of Laikipia. Sunny conditions are forecasted for counties in the Pastoral Northeast cluster, with a few areas in Southern Garissa bordering Lamu likely to experience occasional rainfall from the third week. Near-to-above long-term average rainfall amount is expected in the Southeastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta) and Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) over January 2024. Figure 3: Rainfall forecast for January 2024 1.2 Vegetation Condition Significant improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed across December in all the ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented either normal or above normal vegetation greenness. This was a notable improvement from the previous period, especially in Taita Taveta which had moderate vegetation deficit in November. All counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while a few sub-counties including Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township) and Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) reported normal vegetation greenness as illustrated in Table 1. Generally, the vegetation condition in December depicted further improvement from November as shown in Figure 4. November 2023 December 2023 Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition in November and December 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of December 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1 disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia (105) Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine,Tiaty,South), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, East, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North, West) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse improved further with all the counties reporting good and above normal, save for Turkana and West Pokot as shown in Table 2. Consequently, dense canopies of browse were observed across all the areas, which was attributed to the enhanced rainfall, leading to massive vegetation regeneration. Table 2: Pasture and Browse Condition - December 2023 Pasture Browse Turkana West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado, Meru Kilifi, Makueni, Nyeri Narok, Samburu Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Tana River, Embu Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Samburu Turkana, West Pokot Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta, Baringo Laikipia, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Nyeri, Tana River Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Improved forage availability resulted in significant improvement of the body condition of all livestock species in December compared to November. Across majority of the counties, the body condition score for both cattle and small stock (sheep and goats) as captured through the pictorial evaluation tool (PET) was 4-5, implying good-to-very good body condition (Table 3). Reduced trekking distance to water sources resulting from adequate recharge of open water sources in close proximity to grazing areas also contributed to the favourable livestock body condition. The observed livestock body condition was above the long term range due to the good quality of forage. Table 3: Livestock Body Condition - December 2023 Cattle GoatsSheep West Pokot Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Samburu, Turkana Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi, Embu Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Kitui Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot, Isiolo, Lamu Taita Taveta, Baringo Wajir, Laikipia, Mandera Kwale, Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production About 52 of ASAL counties recorded an increase in milk production in December, with approximately 35 reporting unchanged milk production levels. However, Samburu, Lamu and West Pokot reported a decline in milk production, which is attributed to livestock diseases (suspected foot and mouth in West Pokot), diminishing pasture in some sites, migration of livestock from insecure areas, low livestock numbers occasioned by mortalities, among other factors (Table 4). Milk produced in approximately 39 of the counties was below the respective long-term average while about 17 of the counties reported unchanged quantities across the two periods. Notably, 44 of the counties recorded production that was above the usual range for the period. Stable or increase in milk production in the aforementioned 61 of the counties could be attributed to the increasing number of lactating herds and improved yield level per livestock occasioned by forage and water availability within shorter trekking distances. Table 4: Milk production - December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Lamu, Isiolo Mandera Turkana Wajir, Kitui Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri, Taita- Taveta, Kajiado Garissa Marsabit Samburu Tana River Embu, Kilifi Kwale, Meru West Pokot Garissa, Meru Isiolo, Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Tana River Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi Baringo Turkana Wajir Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Samburu West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub-counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso ward, Samburu County. Equally outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo(Marsabit). 1.3.5 Cattle prices A significant proportion of counties (43) recorded an improvement in cattle prices compared to November, with roughly 52 reporting prices that were typically the same as those recorded in December (Table 5). On the other hand, the reported market prices of cattle across all the counties were above the corresponding long-term average in December, except in West Pokot (due to the ripple effect of market disruption occasioned by imposition of quarantine to contain the spread of foot and mouth disease) while the one recorded in Nyeri and Taita Taveta was at par with the respective normal price. The observed positive trend in cattle prices could be attributed to the low traded volumes driven by pastoralists holding onto their valued assets and remarkably improved cattle body condition occasioned by availability of pasture in majority of the areas. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Embu Tana River, Narok Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta, Nyeri West- Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Samburu, Embu Tana River Turkana Kwale, Makueni Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Lamu Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Meru Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices There was a notable improvement in the price of goats across majority of the ASAL counties over the period under review, with 48 reporting an upward trend while 43 reported stability (Table 6). Due to the increased influx to the market with the anticipated cessation of the short rains, a negative trend was reported in Garissa and Laikipia. With respect to the long-term average price of goat, the reported prices during the month of December were above by a significant margin exceeding 20 in majority of the areas. The major factors influencing the observed price improvement include high demand triggered by low supplies in the market occasioned by reluctance by pastoralists to sell, market disruption as a consequence of the prevailing ElNio phenomenon, and considerably improved goat body condition driven by availability of quality palatable browse were. Table 6: Goat prices - December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Narok Isiolo, Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir, Kitui Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Isiolo, Makueni Mandera, Embu Marsabit Tana River Turkana Kajiado, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Samburu Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu, Narok West Pokot Garissa Laikipia 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and the Southeast Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of Tana, Daua and Turkwel rivers, among others. Generally, crop production activities were affected to a large extent by the flooding witnessed, with over 50,398 acres of farmland destroyed. The table below illustrates the situation across select ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Southeast Marginal Agriculture Kitui Crop performance was largely affected by effects of leaching, with harvest projected to drop by about 50. Cases of pests resistant to drugs on legumes, particularly affecting cow peas and green grams, were reported. Makueni Farmers along flooded rivers and upper zones of the county incurred crop losses due to water logging, with approximately 37,000 acres of irrigated land destroyed by floods. Presence of Fall Armyworm was also reported in Mbooni Sub-county. Maize crop was stunted in parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North and lower parts of Igembe Central, with below-average harvest expected. The stunted maize could be attributed to water logging due to the heavy rains received. Similarly, beans in various parts were destroyed by the floods experienced. Pastoral Northeast Garissa There was decline in area under crop production by over 30 due to the effect of floods and farmers also incurred losses in terms of destroyed irrigation infrastructure and loss of livelihoods. River More than 7,285 acres of cropland under rain-fed production had been submerged by flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to the crops due to lack of oxygen. 1.4.1 Maize prices About 30 of the counties reported a decline in maize prices, while 57 recorded price stabilisation compared to November as Tana River, Embu and Laikipia counties reported increased prices across December (Table 8). The price increase in aforementioned counties was due to the negative impacts of the El Nino phenomenon that resulted in the counties being cut off from external supply sources, low crop yield in some areas attributable to the impact of pests, and other macro-economic factors. Concerningly, the reported prices across all the ASAL counties was higher than the corresponding long-term average prices for the period under analysis, except in Kwale and Lamu. Table 8: Maize prices in December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Meru, Nyeri Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Garissa, Nyeri Marsabit Wajir, Kwale Makueni, Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Isiolo, Meru Mandera Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households The trekking distance to water sources by households majorly remained unchanged in about 52 of counties but slightly increased in 30 (Table 9). The distances ranged between 0.9 and 7.3 kilometres compared to the previous 1.2 to 7.7 kilometres, with the longest distance of 7.3 kilometres and 6.2 kilometres being recorded in Mandera and Marsabit respectively while the lowest of 0.9 kilometres was reported in Meru. Contrary to the previous month, households trekked over shorter distances than the usual to access water across majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 9. The slight reduction in trekking distance relative to the previous month could be attributed to the improved water availability occasioned by adequate recharge (averaging 90-100) in open water sources. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources - December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Turkana Kwale Nyeri, Taita- Taveta Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Makueni Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Makueni Nyeri, Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Mandera Tana River Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit Samburu Laikipia Narok West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances were relatively the same as the previous month. Consequently, the distance ranged between one to 9.5 kilometres compared to 0.6-10.9 kilometres previously. The longest distance of 9.5 kilometres was recorded in Mandera while the shortest at one kilometre was reported in Meru. However, about 35 of the counties recorded a marginal increase mainly attributed to insecurity and high prevalence of livestock diseases in some grazing zones. Additionally, the prevailing distance was lower than the corresponding normal distance that livestock usually trek to access water in all the counties, except Laikipia and West Pokot (Table 10). Regeneration of forage encompassing shrubs and herbaceous species in sites around water points necessitated livestock to graze within those zones, hence the witnessed trend. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Laikipia West Pokot Baringo Turkana Kitui Makueni Nyeri, Taita- Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Tana River Narok Tharaka- Nithi Baringo Wajir, Embu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Garissa, Meru Marsabit Samburu Turkana Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade improved and remained unchanged compared to the previous month in 57 and 30 of the counties respectively while Tana River, Laikipia and Kitui recorded a slight deterioration (Table 11). Therefore, pastoral households in the latter three counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavourable terms of trade, implying they accessed reduced amount of maize through use of proceeds obtained from their most valued assets. The observed negative trend in these three counties could majorly be attributed to the rising cost of maize over December due to destruction of the road infrastructure following the enhanced rainfall, thereby affecting normal market functionality. Table 11: Terms of trade in December 2023. Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Makueni, Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Kitui Tana River Kajiado, Meru Laikipia, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir Marsabit, Kilifi Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo Samburu Kwale West Pokot Tana River Kitui Laikipia The terms of trade remained below the usual range in 48 of the counties and above the long- term average in 43. Overall, there was an improvement despite the household purchasing power remaining low in the select counties, majorly constrained by the impacts of the El Nino phenomenon. 1.7. Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend and stabilised in about 52 and 43 of the counties respectively but worsened in West Pokot (Table 12). The stable to negative trend in the listed counties could be attributed to the high disease burden such as diarrhea prevalence among children below five years, reduced milk consumption and poor dietary diversity occasioned by the high cost of living and El Nino phenomenon that hindered access to markets, and the general downscaling of nutrition-sensitive interventions. The nutrition situation remains a major concern in about 39 of the counties, which are currently reporting malnutrition rates outside the usual range. These include: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River, Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni and Nyeri (Kieni). Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement in December 2023 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kilifi Garissa, Kitui Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni Marsabit Lamu, Meru Kajiado Mandera Isiolo, Kwale, Samburu Wajir, Embu, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Meru Garissa, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera, Wajir, Nyeri Kilifi, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Embu, Kwale, Kajiado West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with an improving to stable trend as shown in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification - December 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Marsabit, Isiolo, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Meru North, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Nyeri, Lamu, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Kitui, Embu Turkana, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions. Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the drought situation given the expected dry conditions between Jan-March 2024. Food and safety Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. Health nutrition sector Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogue and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st December 2023. County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 30th VCI-3 month as at 31st Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 60.23 62.35 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties, except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. Central 71.64 North 67.51 67.05 South 61.33 65.01 Ravine 62.19 52.93 Mogotio 42.35 47.29 Tiaty 59.92 65.49 Mandera County 73.83 84.47 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Lafey 71.43 86.16 North 71.92 87.08 Banissa 67.04 72.45 82.27 South 84.95 65.57 72.11 Turkana County 50.82 Save for Turkana East, all Sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness, including Turkana South and North whose vegetation condition was within the normal band over the previous month. 40.12 South 41.24 54.15 Loima 60.32 77.64 Central 50.72 50.47 64.19 North 47.27 55.57 Marsabit County 65.48 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Laisamis 84.16 Moyale 57.49 77.37 North Horr 70.31 84.34 81.79 96.65 Wajir County 55.45 62.77 Continued improvement in the condition of vegetation was observed over December, with the vegetation greenness ranging from Normal to Above Normal across the respective Sub-counties. Tarbaj 73.54 76.59 North 73.14 82.63 South 45.28 57.03 45.14 46.92 Eldas 52.29 49.72 Wajir East 56.82 68.13 Samburu County 45.56 65.49 All Sub-counties reported above normal vegetation greenness and that represented a remarkable shift from the normal vegetation greenness previously noted across the county. 42.28 62.92 North 71.27 43.22 55.83 Garissa County 46.89 61.21 Considerable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December, with the vegetation greenness being above normal across most sub-counties. Only Balambala and Township Sub-counties reported normal vegetation greenness, a shift from the moderate vegetation deficit observed across November. Balambala 25.92 49.41 Township 29.39 46.37 Ijara 74.14 43.41 63.06 Lagdera 51.69 57.01 Dadaab 43.62 55.17 Isiolo County 55.06 67.15 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties. North 51.25 65.63 South 60.89 69.47 Tana River County 38.78 58.99 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Bura Sub-county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation deficit reported in November. 30.01 51.38 Galole 37.34 58.16 Garsen 47.11 65.97 Kajiado County 44.63 Central 36.47 59.72 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness, with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado South which was experiencing moderate vegetation deficit across November. 37.88 59.61 North 55.23 64.33 South 32.09 61.43 62.07 71.51 County 68.88 70.62 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties. Manyatta 71.18 70.92 Mbeere North 76.35 75.84 Mbeere South 62.09 67.23 Runyenjes 74.85 71.14 Kitui County 44.07 57.79 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the sub-counties. Central 60.22 63.59 50.95 60.48 Rural 59.92 64.73 South 41.46 58.01 47.46 58.54 Mwingi Central 39.07 53.41 Mwingi North 42.27 55.17 Mwingi West 52.18 66.23 Makueni County 50.32 62.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Remarkable recovery in vegetation condition was witnessed in Kibwezi East Sub county over the reference period. Kaiti 75.76 76.26 Kibwezi East 35.76 53.73 Kibwezi West 63.69 Kilome 57.04 64.37 Makueni 58.21 67.22 Mbooni 66.38 67.62 County 60.49 67.23 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties Buuri 65.94 Central-Imenti 65.05 65.59 Igembe Central 64.63 70.82 Igembe North 63.75 76.87 Igembe South 62.81 66.35 North Imenti 65.05 58.54 South Imenti 63.93 63.59 Tigania East 58.82 64.48 Tigania West 58.99 60.44 Nyeri County Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties, with improvement being noted in Nyeri Town Sub- county. Kieni 63.65 Mathira 58.61 59.27 Mukurweini 62.89 63.33 Nyeri Town 48.76 59.13 Othaya 72.98 67.98 67.42 60.24 Kilifi County 39.98 54.64 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all sub-counties. Ganze 33.15 53.73 Kaloleni 46.43 61.48 Kilifi North 51.96 57.64 Kilifi South 48.46 52.43 Magarini 53.84 Malindi 47.81 56.16 Rabai 50.52 58.55 Kwale County 51.67 65.67 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties, with Kinango equally reporting a significant shift in the condition of vegetation. Kinango 43.99 62.45 Lunga Lunga 60.77 73.94 Matuga 65.54 63.46 Msambweni 63.91 69.99 County 74.97 76.63 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties. Lamu East 61.77 69.15 Lamu West 80.96 Taita Taveta County 26.75 51.44 As a consequence of the enhanced rainfall received in the county, remarkable recovery in the condition of vegetation from the previous period (when moderate vegetation deficit was recorded) was reported over all the sub-counties. Mwatate 26.18 Taveta 46.75 27.42 54.14 Wundanyi 26.44 56.89 Narok County 64.27 73.36 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 81.97 91.63 Kilgoris 68.91 Narok East 47.76 62.44 Narok North 45.91 58.95 Narok South 64.52 Narok West 76.62 82.96 West Pokot County 57.97 64.29 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties. Kacheliba 52.07 59.81 Kapenguria 62.69 67.14 Pokot South 68.85 Sigor 59.03 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 54.63 58.25 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Sub counties similar to the previous month, with some slight improvement being noted in Tharaka Sub- county. Chuka 69.31 71.78 Maara 59.71 62.45 Tharaka 47.47 51.81 Laikipia County 62.22 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all sub-counties. Laikipia East 47.75 71.98 Laikipia North 37.74 63.25 Laikipia West 44.17 55.57 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges"
        },
        "DEWS_2024": {
            "January_2024.pdf": "January 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The range of environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators monitored by the national drought early warning system fell within their usual ranges following the good performance of the 2023 short rains season. Consequently, All the 23 counties classified as Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs) were categorised under the Normal phase in January. However, the emergence of other risks associated with the enhanced rainfall such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) reported in Marsabit and Wajir counties continued to undermine full drought and food security recovery. The functioning of markets, flow of food and other commodities almost stabilised across the ASAL counties during the month under review. However, upsurge of livestock diseases such as RVF, Foot and Mouth Disease, among others, may restrict livestock movements to these markets, thus disrupting functionality. The ongoing multi-sectoral assessment of the impact of the 2023 short rains on food and nutrition security will provide a clearer situation update, including the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in January 2024. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 January 2024 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the northern sector except a few areas over Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Kitui, Tana river, Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and West pokot where rainfall was experienced for a few days. southern sector country experienced rainfall that was near to above average except over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands where below average rainfall was recorded. The month was characterized by isolated storms over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, Southeastern lowlands, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, South Rift Valley, the South Coast (Kwale) and Northeast (Isiolo). 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for February 2024 The rainfall outlook for February is as shown in Figure 3. The forecast indicates that the Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo Garissa counties experience generally sunny and dry conditions during the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above average over several parts of the country, except parts of the southeastern lowlands, where normal temperatures are expected. Figure 2: January 2024 Rainfall Performance. Figure 3: February Rainfall Forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition remains normal across ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented normal vegetation greenness, thus stable vegetation condition as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties (disaggregated by sub-county) as at the end of January 2024. December 2023 January 2024 Figure 4: Comparison of vegetation condition in December 2023 and January 2024. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio) Turkana:(Turkana East,Central and North) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Narok, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu,Tana River, Turkana, Wajir (109) Embu: (Manyatta Mbeere North Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kajiado: (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado North, Kajiado South, Kajiado West) Kilifi: (Ganze,Kaloleni,Kilifi North,Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai) Kitui: (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kwale: (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia: (Laikipia East, Laikipia North, Laikipia West) Lamu: (Lamu East,Lamu West) Makueni:(Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru: (Buuri,Central Imenti,Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti,Tigania East,Tigania West) Nyeri:(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, NyeriTown, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta: (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tharaka Natha: (ChukaIgambangombe, Maara, Tharaka). West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Narok: (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok East, Narok North, Narok South, Narok West). Mandera:(Lafey, Mandera North, Banissa, Mandera West, Mandera South, Mandera East). Marsabit: (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku). Samburu:(Samburu East, Samburu North, Samburu West) Tana River: (Bura, Galole, Garsen). Turkana:(Turkana South, Loima,T urkana West). Wajir:(Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir South, Wajir West, Eldas, Wajir East) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good to fair over the reference period. Approximately 78 of the ASAL counties reported good condition of pasture and 22 reported fair while 91 good browse condition and 9 reported fair (Table 2) due to the regeneration that was driven by the rainfall received during the previous month. The observed fair condition could be attributed to presence of invasive species such as Cossus Rotundia (Raraiti) that smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species in regions such as Samburu and parts of Marsabit, heat effect in January and heavy flooding in grazing lands. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition Pasture Browse Baringo Tana River Turkana Narok West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Baringo,Garissa, Isiolo,Mandera Marsabit,Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado,Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipa, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all species was generally good across ASAL counties, with 58 reporting good body condition and 22 fair body condition for cattle. 96 reported good condition for goat and sheep while 4 reported fair. The positive trend was due to availability of abundant pasture and access to water within shorter distances. The observed livestock body across January was normal to above normal compared to the long term mean. Table 3: Livestock body condition Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Narok West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipai, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Taita Taveta, Narok, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipai, Lamu, Makueni Meru, West Pokot, Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable compared to the previous month, with most of the arid counties reporting below milk production compared to long term average. This is attributed to low tropical units following livestock mortality experienced during the previous failed seasons. During the period under review, Samburu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.4 litres from the sampled households in Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.6 litres among semi-arid counties. Table 4: Milk production Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Nyeri, Mandera,Turkana Wajir, Narok, Baringo, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia Garissa, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Samburu, Tana River, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Marsabit, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub- Counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso Ward, Samburu County while outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Marsabit and Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF in Wajir. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported in Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained stable across ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The observed low prices were occasioned by the low demand due to increased supply of the species to the markets as farmers sought to raise funds to meet beginning of year academic needs and other household expenses. Notably, the stable-to-improving trend in the other areas was driven by good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists to earn more. Notably, the recorded prices across all counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period, with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity in markets due to hoarding and low volumes, and high demand for cattle meat being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5: Cattle prices Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir Embu,Narok Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi,Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Garissa, Baringo, Marsabit, Nyeri Embu, Narok, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Tana River, Turkana Wajir ,Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Samburu, West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices remained stable across ASAL counties as result of good livestock body condition. Oversupply in markets caused by the need to raise school fees and to meet household needs had negative effect on prices. The favorable trend in these countries was impacted by high export demand and browse availability. The prevalent market price of goats across all counties was above usual rates for the period, which could be attributed to persistent improvement in the body condition of goat following good rains. Table 6: Goat prices Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi ,West Pokot, Kwale,Laikipia Lamu,Makueni, Meru,Narok Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Kilifi Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Tana River Mandera Samburu Nyeri Isiolo, Turkana Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production are usually carried out in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel, among others. Table 7 illustrates the crop production situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Marginal Agriculture Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in good-fair condition. However, farmers are anticipating below average harvests due to withering, crop pests and flash floods. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops under irrigation at various stages of development. Makueni Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were counting crop losses due to water logging. The most affected areas were Kawese village in Kasikeu ward of Kilome Sub-county and KakoWaia Ward in Mbooni Sub-county where maize crop had stunted growth due to sandy soil leaching nutrients, affecting approximately 132 Ha and 272 families. Maize crop is good in most parts of the county and currently at the grain filling stage nearing maturity. Near normal harvest is expected in the last week of February in most areas, except the Rainfed Cropping Zones of Tigania East and parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North, and lower parts of Igembe Central where beans crop was destroyed by flooding. The ongoing harvests of beans are gradually improving household food availability while reducing market reliance, while agricultural labour opportunities are improving household access to income and purchasing power. Agropastoral Baringo Infestation of Fall Armyworms was observed in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub-counties, leading to reduced yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable as harvesting was ongoing and are expected to reduce after harvesting. Notably, the prevailing prices over January were above the respective long-term average for Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Tana River, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Narok ,which could be attributed to minimal production during the earlier successive failed rainfall seasons, high transport costs due to high fuel prices and increased demand for the commodity. Table 8: Maize prices Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot,Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Narok Kwale Narok Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Garissa, Marsabit Mandera, Tana River, Samburu, Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale Kitui,Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kajiado, Meru, Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distance to water source for household remained stable compared to the previous month. Mandera recorded the longest trekking distance for arid counties at 8.6Km and Samburu the shortest at 5.6km return distance. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance at 4.3 Km for semi-arid counties while Nyeri recording the lowest at 1.2 Km among semi-arid counties. Lower than normal trekking distances were boosted by recharge of water facilities over the October to December short rains period, coupled with erratic showers experienced in January, albeit in select areas. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo Turkana Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta Kwale, Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Turkana, , Samburu, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to water points remained stable across ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributable to the enhanced short rains. Consequently, among the arid counties, the distance averaged 7.3 Kms compared to 6.7Kms recorded in December 2023. The longest return trekking distance of 10.8 Kms was reported in Turkana and Mandera, while the shortest distance was recorded in Tana River County at 3.2 Kms. On the other hand, the distance ranged between 1.8 Kms and 4.3 Kms in the semi- arid counties, with the longest distance recorded in Kitui while the shortest was reported in Kilifi. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Current status Trend Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Narok Makueni, West Pokot, Turkana Meru, Laikipia Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado, Taita Taveta Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Turkana, Wajir Mandera, Embu, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade Stability in the terms of trade was noted across the counties. Among the arid counties, the lowest terms of trade of 40 and 42 was reported in Garissa and Turkana respectively, while Nyeri recorded the lowest of 61 among semi-arid counties. Compared to the long-term average, the terms of trade were favorable. Marsabit County reported the highest terms of trade at 91.8 while Tharaka Nithi returned the highest of 115 among the semi-arid counties. The improved terms of trade are as result of ongoing harvests, which are stablising prices. Table 11: Terms of Trade Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo Wajir, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi Lamu, Taita Taveta Garissa, Tana River, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kwale Baringo, Marsabit Garissa, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Kitui Laikipia Tana River, Narok, Nyeri, Lamu, Kwale, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend in January compared to the previous month in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Marsabit. This was attributed to ongoing nutrition interventions delivered through health outreaches and better food consumption following improved access to nutritious food commodities in season such as fresh milk, pulses and vegetables. However, based on Middle-Upper-Arm- Circumference (MUAC) rates, Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale and Makueni remained on Alert. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the seasonal ranges in approximately 60 of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 26 of the counties. The negative situation could be attributed to increase in cases of epidemics such as cholera, diarrhea, among other ailments, throughout the short rains season. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based MUAC measurements) Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River, Kitui, Kwale Makueni Baringo Narok Nyeri Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir, Mandera Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Marsabit , Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Nyeri, Laikipia Lamu, Meru Taita Taveta Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok Garissa, Samburu Turkana, Tana River, Kwale Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while the trend in a few counties is Worsening Trend as shown in the Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Marsabit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Samburu,Embu,Kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Mer u,Narok,Nyeri,Taita Taveta,Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Recommended Priority Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation given the likely dry conditions in February and March 2024 (before onset of March-May season). Sensitisation of stakeholders on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during upcoming long rains season. Food and safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain income generating activities for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthen disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites. Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthen community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st January 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 month as at 3Ist VCI-3 month as at 31st Colour VCI values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 62.35 58.21 Above normal vegetation greeness remained the same across all sub-counties except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. Central 71.16 North 67.05 South 65.01 Ravine 52.93 63.94 Mogotio 47.29 48.02 Tiaty 65.49 57.25 Mandera County 84.47 89.84 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties as compared to the previous month. Lafey 86.16 North 87.08 Banissa 84.19 82.27 85.67 South 90.68 72.11 80.99 Turkana County 54.66 Above normal vegetation greenness recorded in January 2024,Except for Turkana East, North and central that showed Normal vegetation greenness as opposed to previous months. 40.12 35.03 South 54.15 56.18 Loima 77.64 73.21 Central 50.47 45.92 68.43 North 55.57 48.29 Marsabit County 82.75 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Laisamis 84.16 92.78 Moyale 77.37 90.77 North Horr 84.34 73.78 96.65 106.34 Wajir County 62.77 80.25 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across the sub-counties which is similar to the previous months. Tarbaj 76.59 81.37 North 82.63 South 57.03 75.41 46.92 85.04 Eldas 49.72 70.25 Wajir East 68.13 81.61 Samburu County 65.49 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation greenness that is similar to the previous month across the County. 62.92 77.26 North 71.27 76.59 55.83 56.61 Garissa County 61.21 79.78 Significant improvements noted in January with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all the sub-counties as opposed to previous month for Balambala and Township Sub counties reported normal vegetation greenness in Deecember 23. Balambala 49.41 77.94 Township 46.37 81.14 Ijara 74.14 79.75 63.06 83.58 Lagdera 57.01 82.12 Dadaab 55.17 70.57 Isiolo County 67.15 90.96 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties North 65.63 93.74 South 69.47 86.71 Tana River County 58.99 78.53 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Bura Sub county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation deficit reported in November. 51.38 Galole 58.16 76.07 Garsen 65.97 83.49 Kajiado County 81.05 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed across the sub-couties,similar to the previous months. Central 59.72 79.16 59.61 86.31 North 64.33 75.03 South 61.43 88.06 71.51 74.31 County 70.62 80.13 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Manyatta 70.92 74.21 Mbeere North 75.84 Mbeere South 67.23 80.01 Runyenjes 71.14 77.82 Kitui County 57.79 74.09 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties,Similar to the previous month period Central 63.59 74.17 60.48 73.89 Rural 64.73 80.32 South 58.01 76.92 58.54 73.33 Mwingi Central 53.41 Mwingi North 55.17 67.79 Mwingi West 66.23 81.35 Makueni County 62.72 79.77 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant improvement noted across the county.. Kaiti 76.26 81.57 Kibwezi East 53.73 76.51 Kibwezi West 63.69 80.78 Kilome 64.37 83.12 Makueni 67.22 82.07 Mbooni 67.62 78.12 County 67.23 74.02 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Buuri 65.94 73.78 Central-Imenti 65.59 74.08 Igembe Central 70.82 Igembe North 76.87 83.82 Igembe South 66.35 75.76 North Imenti 58.54 South Imenti 63.59 76.08 Tigania East 64.48 66.84 Tigania West 60.44 61.64 Nyeri County 61.83 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties with significant improvement Kieni 63.65 64.12 Mathira 59.27 55.57 Mukurweini 63.33 64.48 Nyeri Town 59.13 66.73 Othaya 67.98 59.95 60.24 56.06 Kilifi County 54.64 74.53 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties,this is the same to the previous month Ganze 53.73 77.09 Kaloleni 61.48 76.92 Kilifi North 57.64 68.46 Kilifi South 52.43 65.42 Magarini 53.84 74.85 Malindi 56.16 70.73 Rabai 58.55 Kwale County 65.67 78.06 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Kinango 62.45 79.37 Lunga 73.94 80.01 Matuga 63.46 71.09 Msambweni 69.99 70.92 County 76.63 80.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lamu East 69.15 79.03 Lamu West 80.96 81.25 Taita Taveta County 51.44 82.11 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across the sub-counties as opposed to previous months Mwatate 79.74 Taveta 46.75 84.74 54.14 81.44 Wundanyi 56.89 85.18 Narok County 73.36 77.55 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 91.63 92.93 Kilgoris 76.55 Narok East 62.44 79.25 Narok North 58.95 64.01 Narok South 77.09 Narok West 82.96 83.63 West Pokot County 64.29 55.38 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kacheliba 59.81 50.37 Kapenguria 67.14 55.97 Pokot South 68.85 64.03 Sigor 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 58.25 69.53 vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties; with improvement being noted in across the county. Chuka 71.78 80.42 Maara 62.45 76.53 Tharaka 51.81 Laikipia County 62.22 74.16 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia East 71.98 79.06 Laikipia North 63.25 78.21 Laikipia West 55.57 64.21 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "Feb_2024.pdf": "1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties are categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the 2023 short rains season. The current Rift Valley Fever reported in the counties of Marsabit and Wajir counties eminent affected neighbouring counties. The just concluded Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, February Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance stands at 2 million, Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of February 2024 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 February 2024 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the February 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive considerable amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 11mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm whereas Pastoral cluster including Figure Rainfall Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received rainfall ranging between 2mm to 50mm as shown in figure 1.1.2 March 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of March 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Marsabit) counties forecasted to receive above average rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of February showed slight decline from the previous month of January which is normal during this period. Turkana and West Pokot Counties are depicting slight greenness deterioration thus requiring monitoring. January 2024 Figure 3. March 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) for January and February 2024 The month of February 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of January 2024. However, two counties showed declining trend. Stability is due to the compounded impacts of OND short rains seasons which was linked to El Nino condition. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties of; Turkana and West Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (21) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2024 is provided in Table 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2024 Category Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Turkana, West Pokot Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, Central, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Sigor) Above Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Taveta, River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, (106) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, West), (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from fair to good during the reference period. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 of ASAL counties, while 22 deemed the pasture condition fair. For browse, 91 of counties reported good conditions, with 9 reporting fair conditions, the stability is attributed to regeneration impacted by the recent rainfall. Fair conditions were observed in regions like Samburu and parts of Marsabit, mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration, heat effects in February, and compromised grazing lands from heavy flooding. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, February 2024 Pasture Browse Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the 23 ASAL Counties was generally stable, with 58 reporting good condition and 22 fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed 96 in good condition and 4 in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water resource within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the ASALCounties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources, with February conditions falling within the usual or above-normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, February 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Kwale Meru, Narok, Tana River, Wajir Turkana, Taita Taveta Narok, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, WestPokot, Kilifi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained consistent compared to the previous month, but many Arid counties reported below-average production due to low Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs), stemming from livestock mortality during previous failed seasons. Among the sampled households, Samburu had the lowest average milk production of 0.4 liters among Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production of 0.6 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2024 Isiolo, Nyeri Wajir, Narok, Kajiado, Lamu Kwale, Taita Kilifi, Kitui, Embu, Kwale 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases were reported in Marsabit and Wajir, with 52 positive samples out of 275 tested in Wajir. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County and goats abortion noted across the county. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained steady throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The decrease in price in these areas was due to high volumes, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sold cattle to raise fees for their learners in the schools new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and below normal volumes, and increased demand for cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2024 Tana River, taveta Marsabit, Nyeri Wajir Taita Samburu, West 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons, increasing the availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, February 2024 Kilifi, West Baringo, Garissa, Embu, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production The main food crops in the field were at harvesting stage and their condition varied from good to fair. The performance of crops was affected by logging due to excessive water in some areas. Crop pests manifestation also affected the performance of crops in the field; thus, no optimal production was expected Most of these crops were on harvesting stage and in good to fair condition. The expected crop production was 30-60 percent above the long-term average. High incidences of crop pests and fungal diseases (caterpillars, bollworms, and Tuta absoluta) contributed to the reduced crop production especially for irrigated cropping Harvesting of short-cycle legumes such as beans has been completed across the livelihood zones. Most farmers in the county began harvesting maize across all the livelihood zones. Near average to below average harvest of maize is expected. In the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central below normal maize crop harvest was observed. This is as a results of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in these areas. However, near average-to- average maize crop harvest was observed in the Mixed Livelihood Zone of Tigania East. The harvest is expected to improve food availability at the household level periodically with most households opting to sell the harvest to meet other expenses or use as payment for school fees. Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begun in some areas. Agropastoral Farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the long rains season. In the Irrigated livelihood zones, farmers were harvesting maize and tomatoes. Some maize farms were affected by fall army warms in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties, leading to reduced crop yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, the prices are expected to decrease post-harvest. January prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Ongoing harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further. Januarys prices surpassed long-term averages due to increased fuel prices impacting transportation costs, and heightened demand for the commodity. Table 8.0: Maize prices, February 2024 Atclose to LTA Embu, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia Tana- River Nithi Kilifi, Kitui, Taita Taveta West. Pokot, Kajiado Meru, Laikipia 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.3km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among Arid counties. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance (5.9km), while Nyeri reported the shortest (1.2km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and sporadic January showers in specific areas. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, February 2024 Above LTA At LTA , Mandera, Wajir , Mandera, Turkana , Samburu, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot, Embu, 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, the average distance increased to 7.3 kilometers from January 2023s 6.7 kilometers, with Turkana and Mandera reporting the longest round-trip distances of over 10 kilometers each, and Tana River County having the shortest at 4.5 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 4.9 kilometers, with Kitui reporting the longest and Kilifi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rains in 2023. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, February 2024 w LTA Garissa, Samburu Tana River, Embu Lamu, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Kajiado, Taita Isiolo, Samburu Kilifi, Lamu Kitui, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade remained stable across the ASAL counties, with Garissa and Turkana reporting the lowest among Arid counties at 40 and 42, respectively. In semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest at 61. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade at 98.4, while Tharaka Nithi recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties at 142. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the ongoing harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, February 2024 Below LTA Improving Kilifi, Makueni Lamu, Taita Taveta Kilifi, Nyeri Narok, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition conditions improved in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, and Marsabit compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale, and Makueni counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Despite this, reported malnutrition rates remained below seasonal ranges in about 60 percent of ASAL counties, but approximately 26 percent experienced rates outside the usual ranges. This less favorable situation could be attributed to an increase in epidemic diseases, including cholera and diarrhea, during the OND 2023 period. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2024 Current Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Mandera Kilifi, Laikipia Kitui, Nyeri Lamu, Meru 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while few counties are at Worsening Trend as shown in the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, January 2024 Drought Worsening Deteriorating River, Wajir, Samburu, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in March 2024, before onset of MAM 2024 season. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance control facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Facilitate safe migrations in accessing grazing areas and markets Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistributions. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th February 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County at 31st at 25th Colour values (3-month) Drought Category above normal 35 - 50 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO 58.21 57.62 71.16 81.21 59.13 55.81 Ravine 63.94 78.59 Mogotio 48.02 48.13 Tiaty 57.25 52.31 MANDERA 89.84 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of January with above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 97.39 95.68 Banissa 84.19 80.56 85.67 82.29 96.19 80.99 87.71 TURKANA 54.66 49.86 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 35.03 35.79 56.18 51.48 Loima 73.21 66.32 45.92 47.92 68.43 60.06 48.29 41.96 MARSABIT 82.75 73.86 Laisamis 92.78 86.52 Moyale 90.77 North Horr 62.47 106.34 107.01 WAJIR 80.25 86.25 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in February, as compared to the previous month of January. This remained stable. Tarbaj 81.37 95.48 75.41 77.22 85.04 102.32 Eldas 70.25 83.21 81.61 88.99 SAMBURU 77.26 78.28 76.59 74.66 56.61 55.68 GARISSA 79.78 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness Balambala 77.94 83.15 Township 81.14 87.65 Ijara 79.75 84.49 83.58 82.25 Lagdera 82.12 89.91 Dadaab 70.57 70.04 ISIOLO 90.96 94.78 The county recorded stability in above vegetation compared to last month. 93.74 99.42 86.71 RIVER 78.53 75.22 Galole 76.07 67.42 Garsen 83.49 79.55 KAJIADO 81.05 90.66 stability greenness at above normal vegetation greenness. 79.16 90.95 86.31 93.38 75.03 84.22 88.06 93.65 74.31 LAIKIPIA 74.16 74.32 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness under review. 79.06 79.28 78.21 76.61 64.21 67.63 THARAKA NITHI 69.53 70.05 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 80.42 80.11 Maara 76.53 81.17 62.71 POKOT 55.38 48.21 The county recorded decrease in vegetation greenness from, above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness during the month of February. Kacheliba 50.37 41.34 Kapenguria 55.97 Pokot south 64.03 66.18 Sigor 49.58 80.13 77.49 Manyatta 77.15 Mbeere north 76.74 Mbeere south Runyenjes 77.82 KITUI 74.09 71.98 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness Kitui central 74.17 78.92 Kitui east 73.89 71.69 Kitui rural 80.32 Kitui south 76.14 Kitui west 73.33 74.99 central 65.81 Mwingi north 67.79 62.59 Mwingi west 81.35 78.26 MAKUENI 79.77 86.02 Kaiti 81.57 90.79 Kibwezi east 76.51 88.05 Kibwezi west 80.78 Kilome 83.12 92.75 82.07 82.82 Mbooni 78.12 87.47 74.02 78.98 greenness across the sub-counties. Buuri Central Imenti 74.08 76.15 Igembe central 80.93 Igembe north 86.89 Igembe south 75.76 North Imenti South Imenti 76.08 Tigania east 66.84 71.53 Tigania west 61.64 71.32 NYERI 61.83 74.92 Kieni 64.12 75.28 Mathira 55.57 63.89 Mukurweini 64.48 Nyeri town 66.73 84.04 Othaya 59.95 76.64 56.06 75.87 KILIFI 74.53 76.76 The county remained at above normal vegetation Ganze 76.97 Kaloleni 79.95 Kilifi north 68.46 73.64 Kilifi south 65.42 69.43 Magarini 74.85 77.53 Malindi 70.73 71.29 Rabai 78.57 KWALE 78.06 85.42 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in February which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 79.37 85.72 Lunga Lunga 86.49 Matuga 71.09 Msambweni 70.92 80.81 80.44 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in condition greenness condition during the month of February. Lamu east 79.03 91.21 Lamu west 81.25 90.37 TAITA TAVETA 82.11 92.25 greenness during the month of February. Mwatate 79.74 95.33 104.3 81.44 85.41 Wundanyi 85.18 102.65 NAROK 77.55 greenness in the month of February which was stable when compared to the last month of January. Emurua Dikirr 92.93 94.47 Kilgoris 76.55 81.28 Narok east 79.25 89.75 Narok north 64.01 71.41 Narok south Narok west 83.63 88.37 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Livestock production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Food consumption score Nutrition Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "March_2024.pdf": "March 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the 23 ASAL counties continues to register stable drought situation where Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges is registered across the counties.The onset of the long rains 2024 season has been predicted to be characterised by enhanced rains, in some areas with associated flood risks. Floods and other enhanced rains risks is likely to continue undermining drought recovery household level.Generally, the drought situation is expected to continue in normal phase across the 23 ASAL counties as the wet season sets in. According to last food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of March 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 March 2024 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that early onset of MAM 2024 long rains in some counties especially southern counties. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 0mm to 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded trace amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 78mm to 200mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received highest amounts of rainfall with some parts recording rainfall up to 288mm as shown figure 2.0. Figure 2. March 2024 Rainfall Performance 1.1.2 April 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of April 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are all forecasted to receive above average rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2024 with that of the previous month of February 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement from the month of February. February 2024 March 2024 Figure 3. April 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps depicting improvement in Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) in March from February 2024 The month of March 2024 indicated improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of February 2024. Improvement in vegetation condition is due to the early onset of MAM 2024 long season. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. OnlyWest Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-two (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2024 is better when compared to the previous month, February 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2024 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness West Pokot Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor) Above normal Vegetation greenness Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, (107) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from good to fair during the month of March. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 percent of the Asal counties, while 22 percent were fair. For browse, 78 percent of counties reported good conditions, with 22 percent reporting fair conditions, attributed to regeneration from early onset of MAM seasonal rainfall. Fair Pasture conditions were observed in counties including; Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Narok and Tana River mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration and flooding that hindered grazing. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, March 2024 Pasture Browse Turkana West Pokot Narok Tana River Wajir Narok Garissa Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Makueni Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana West Pokot Tana River Narok Makueni Samburu Garissa Wajir Laikipia Mandera Marsabit Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Pokot Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the Asal Counties was generally stable, with about 70 percent reporting good condition and about 30 percent fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed about 78 percent in good condition and about 22 percent in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water sources within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the Asal Counties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources, with February conditions falling within the usual or above- normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, March 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera, Makueni Narok, Samburu West Pokot, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Kwale, Embu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera, Makueni Narok, Samburu West Pokot, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Kwale, Embu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production improved compared to the previous month of February. Majority of Arid counties reported above-average production due to improving Tropical Livestock Units (TLU occasion by early onset of MAM long rains season. Among the sampled households, Samburu County recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among Arid counties, while Tharaka Nithi county reported the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. The low milk production is as result of low tropical units among the households as result of previous drought events that led to livestock mortality. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Wajir Narok Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Kwale Mandera Laikipia Samburu Garissa Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta West Pokot Kwale Tharakan Nithi Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Garissa Samburu Turkana Narok Laikipia Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Wajir Marsabit Baringo Mandera West Pokot Tana River 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kedong), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. The reported Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases in Marsabit and Wajir, counties continue to be controlled by stakeholders. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices improved slightly throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The increase in price in these areas was due to increased demand, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sought funds for the new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and low volumes, and increased demand for cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Wajir Narok Garissa Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Turkana Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Tana River Nyeri Baringo Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta Pokot Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Samburu Wajir Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Mandera Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons, increasing the availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Garissa Wajir Narok Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Turkana Mandera Isiolo Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Mandera Samburu Wajir Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kwale Makueni Narok Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Tana River 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui The major crops being planted in the season included millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone and maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams in Mixed Farming livelihood zone Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones and this situation is normal at this time of the year Crops germination was expected following the onset of the long rains. However, farmers who did early planting off season planting the crops have germinated Makueni The main crops planted during the season were maize, green grams, pigeon peas, beans, and cowpeas. Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begun in most parts of the livelihood with above-average rains expected across the county Farmers across the livelihood zones concluded harvesting of corps in late February to early March with the harvest being near normal in most parts of the Mixed Framing and Marginal Farming areas of Tigania East and West However, below average maize crop was observed in the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central. This was as a result of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in those areas Agropastoral Baringo Most of the farmers have prepared their farms in readiness for planting once the long rains start, In the Irrigated zone, tomato harvesting was going on well. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, expected to decrease following the post- harvest. March prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to minimal production from past failed rainfall seasons, elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Concluded harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further as witnessed by below average prices in march associated with harvest that farmers got. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni Garissa Wajir Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Kitui Makueni Garissa Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Mandera Kajiado Narok Nyeri Wajir Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Kwale Baringo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Baringo West Pokot Samburu Tana River 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.8km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among the Arid counties. Kitui recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Narok reported the shortest (1.7km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and early onset of MAM 2024 long rains. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Samburu Kajiado River Garissa Kwale Tharaka Nithi Pokot Narok Taita Tavet Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Turkana Kwale Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Baringo Garissa Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tana River Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Turkana reported the longest round-trip distance at 11.6kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 3.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 5.6 kilometers, with Kitui and Lamu reporting the longest and Kilifi and Narok the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rains in 2023. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Laikipia Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Isiolo Pokot Kwale Tharaka Nithi Baringo Wajir Turkana Mandera Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Kilifi Narok Tana River Kajiado Kitui Tharaka Nithi Narok Kilifi Taita Taveta Isiolo Marsabit Samburu Turkana Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Makueni Baringo Garissa Mandera Tana River Makueni Garissa Nyeri Wajir 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Garissa reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in In semi-arid regions, West Pokot recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade in Arid Counties while Meru recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties . The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Makueni, Laikipia Garissa, Wajir Narok, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Taita Taveta, Turkana Mandera, Meru, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Embu, Nyeri Kitui, Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale River Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir Baringo Tana River West Pokot 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo and Garissa compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Turkana Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Kajiado Kitui Makueni Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Garissa Wajir Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Kilifi Kwale Makueni West Pokot Baringo Garissa Marsabit Tana River Turkana Wajir 1.8. Emerging issues Heavy rains have been experienced across ASAL counties during the month of April that led to destruction of local roads in Marsabit(Dirib-Gombo, Central (KCB)Badassa, Parkishon).Turkana has also received heavy rains that resulted to displacement of approximately 250 households with Tana river also experiencing river flooding.Other counties like Samburu have received rains that are causing swollen rivers affecting movement of goods.NDMA will closely monitor instances of flooding since rainfall onset has been realised across ASAL counties. 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while few counties are at Worsening Trend as shown in the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Turkana Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Samburu Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the performance of the long rains and management of the possible impacts. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting the vulnerable groups particularly in flood prone areas. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistributions. Promote fodder production alongside crop production during MAM 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st March 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 57.62 52.17 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March. Central 81.21 76.35 North 59.13 57.05 South 55.81 45.15 Ravine 78.59 Mogotio 48.13 41.61 Tiaty 52.31 46.57 MANDERA County 87.45 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of February at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 97.39 North 95.68 85.68 Banissa 80.56 65.85 82.29 81.42 South 96.19 107.51 87.71 TURKANA County 49.86 57.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 35.79 37.39 South 51.48 51.16 Loima 66.32 70.39 Central 47.92 60.06 70.85 North 41.96 54.73 MARSABIT County 73.86 73.77 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March which was stable when compared to previous month of February. Laisamis 86.52 89.18 Moyale 77.46 North Horr 62.47 62.34 107.01 106.88 WAJIR County 86.25 86.77 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in March, as compared to the previous month of February. Tarbaj 90.03 North 95.48 96.31 South 77.22 102.32 98.17 Eldas 83.21 89.42 88.99 89.64 SAMBURU County 74.55 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 78.28 76.88 North 74.66 78.08 55.68 52.52 GARISSA County 81.91 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Balambala 83.15 76.42 Township 87.65 81.69 Ijara 84.49 91.79 82.25 78.76 Lagdera 89.91 84.58 Dadaab 70.04 65.29 ISIOLO County 94.78 92.63 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in March, which was stable when compared to last month. North 99.42 South 83.05 RIVER County 68.79 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. 75.22 71.87 Galole 67.42 59.43 Garsen 79.55 72.03 KAJIADO County 90.66 88.12 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Central 90.95 89.13 93.38 87.46 North 84.22 South 93.65 82.43 87.05 92.48 LAIKIPIA County 74.32 61.36 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 79.28 69.29 North 76.61 64.21 67.63 THARAKA NITHI County 70.05 67.27 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 80.11 81.19 Maara 81.17 83.13 Tharaka 62.71 56.95 POKOT County 48.21 48.86 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Kacheliba 41.34 39.98 Kapenguria 50.15 Pokot south 66.18 72.95 Sigor 49.58 County 77.49 76.54 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 77.15 84.41 Mbeere north 76.74 74.43 Mbeere south 72.07 Runyenjes 81.86 89.26 KITUI County 71.98 64.36 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Kitui central 78.92 81.69 Kitui east 71.69 61.61 Kitui rural Kitui south 76.14 67.05 Kitui west 74.99 73.54 Mwingi central 65.81 56.62 Mwingi north 62.59 57.42 Mwingi west 78.26 76.54 MAKUENI County 86.02 85.85 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March, which was stable when compared to previous month of February. Kaiti 90.79 93.96 Kibwezi east 88.05 88.49 Kibwezi west 81.91 79.99 Kilome 92.75 90.26 Makueni 82.82 83.15 Mbooni 87.47 89.33 County 78.98 82.12 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of March. Buuri 81.86 Central Imenti 76.15 79.26 Igembe central 80.93 79.63 Igembe north 86.89 90.98 Igembe south 74.21 70.63 North Imenti 78.45 South Imenti 84.74 88.87 Tigania east 71.53 74.48 Tigania west 71.32 83.75 NYERI County 74.92 81.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in March. Kieni 75.28 78.74 Mathira 63.89 Mukurweini 84.75 89.47 Nyeri town 84.04 Othaya 76.64 75.87 86.95 KILIFI County 76.76 70.53 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. Ganze 76.97 66.22 Kaloleni 79.95 68.79 Kilifi north 73.64 71.22 Kilifi south 69.43 60.73 Magarini 77.53 72.75 Malindi 71.29 72.15 Rabai 78.57 76.41 KWALE County 85.42 83.72 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in March which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 85.72 Lunga 86.49 85.51 Matuga 83.82 84.35 Msambweni 80.81 78.37 County 90.68 101.23 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of March. Lamu east 91.21 107.48 Lamu west 90.37 97.61 TAITA TAVETA County 92.25 85.87 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation Mwatate 95.33 90.62 Taveta 104.3 greenness during the month of March. 85.41 77.57 Wundanyi 102.65 102.79 NAROK County 84.75 87.95 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March which was stable when compared to the last month of February. Emurua Dikirr 94.47 95.74 Kilgoris 81.28 Narok east 89.75 88.33 Narok north 71.41 75.04 Narok south 87.05 92.41 Narok west 88.37 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization (Mid-Upper Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping Strategies Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5. RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected 3. ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside",
            "April_2024.pdf": "APRIL 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The onset of the Long Rains was timely across all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties all through the third week of March to the first week of April. Subsequently, enhanced rainfall received throughout the month of April leading to extreme weather events in most ASALs counties. Enhanced rains were thus characterized by extreme wet conditions and floods in low laying zones in particular counties like Garissa, River, Kitui, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Makueni, Kajiado. The floods had varied level of damage in these counties. The positive impacts included good water recharge, vegetation regeneration and good crop performance. Negative impacts included human and livestock deaths including destruction of homes, schools and infrastructure that disrupted markets function. Optimal livestock productivity as evidenced by the good body condition and increasing milk production levels driven by shorter trekking distances to water sources and grazing areas was noted in all the counties. Consequently, based on these range of indicators that fell within their usual seasonal ranges, all the counties were categorized under the Normal drought phase. Despite the aforementioned impacts that continued to undermine the food security situation, response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders to a greater extent sufficed in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather variability. Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification in April 2024 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 April 2024 Rainfall Performance Ordinarily the month of April marks the peak of the Long Rains season across all the ASAL counties except those within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (CMA) whose rainfall peaks in May. Analysis of the rainfall performance throughout the reference period indicated that majority of the counties received near to above average rainfall (Figure 2). The Rains were characterized by moderate to severe storms in counties. Generally, weather conditions were prevalent in most places with a few areas in Taita Taveta like Voi experiencing sunny conditions. Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Baringo recorded rainfall that was 151-200 percent of the long-term mean (LTM) for April while rainfall experienced in Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Nyeri accounted for 201-300 percent of the rainfall normally received over the subject month. Extremely high amounts exceeding 300 percent of the April LTM were recorded in Turkana (Turkana Central, parts of Turkana South, North and Loima). Garissa, Lamu, Tana River and some parts of Marsabit received rainfall that represented 126-150 percent of the LTM with Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta recording rainfall that was 76-125 percent of the LTM. Figure 2: April 2024 Rainfall Performance Source: Kenya Meteorological Department 1.1.2 May 2024 Rainfall Outlook The outlook for May indicates that majority of the ASAL counties are likely to experience near average to above average rainfall (Figure 3). Equally, periodic storms are also likely to be experienced in some counties before the forecasted cessation over the third dekad of May. Above average rainfall is anticipated throughout the month in Baringo, West Pokot, Narok and the Western parts of Laikipia with the one forecasted for Turkana and Samburu being occasional. Intense rainfall is expected across the first dekad with progression throughout the month in Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern parts of Laikipia. Rainfall in these areas is forecasted to be above average with intermittent storms likely. With respect to the Pastoral North East cluster; near to average rainfall is expected over the reference period. The aforementioned scenario will be most likely for Marsabit county. Near to above average rainfall punctuated with sporadic storms is anticipated in counties within the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Makueni and Kitui) and the same will most likely be replicated in Tana River, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Total amounts of rainfall expected in counties falling within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu) are likely to be near to above average with May signifying the peak of the Long Rains season for these areas. Figure 3: May 2024 Rainfall Forecast Source: Kenya Meteorological Department 1.2 Vegetation condition Favorable vegetation condition was observed across all the ASAL counties over the subject month under review with significant improvement being noted since the previous review as soundly affirmed by the VCI-3month (Figure 4). Throughout the month of April, vegetation greenness remained above the normal vegetation greenness threshold as measured by the VCI-3month depicting the prevalent very good conditions. The observed vegetation condition could purely be attributed to the previous good Short Rains season coupled with the enhanced rainfall received since the timely onset of the Long Rains across majority of the counties resulting to massive vegetation regeneration. Consequently, dense canopies were thus evident over most areas whose robust health was further aided by below average land surface temperatures. Notably, all counties and their respective sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness over the period under review. Figure 4: Maps Illustrating Vegetation Condition Improvement from March to April 2024 Vegetation Condition Index March 2024 Vegetation Condition Index April 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe Vegetation Deficit Moderate Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Turkana (Turkana East), West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above-normal Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Laikipia (107) Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Balambala, Township, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kapenguria, Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good across the counties during the period under review. (Table 2). The above average rainfall received in April following the attainment of the onset over the third dekad of March to first dekad of April coupled with below average land surface temperature promoted massive regeneration of forage. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, April 2024 Pasture Browse Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Makueni, Marsabit Narok, Samburu Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta, Embu Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia, Wajir Lamu, Makueni Marsabit, Samburu, Narok, Baringo Garissa, Mandera Taita Taveta, Meru Tana River, Embu Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Turkana West Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Significant improvement in the body condition for all livestock species was observed in all the counties ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with considerably reduced trekking distance to water sources. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of April was normal to above normal compared to this time of the year. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, April 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana West Pokot Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni Meru, Samburu Narok, Baringo Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta Kwale, Marsabit Embu, Garissa Laikipia, Nyeri, Isiolo Turkana Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Makueni, Meru, Narok Samburu, West Pokot Baringo, Mandera Taita Taveta, Wajir Tana River, Kwale Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Marsabit, Embu, Nyeri, Garissa, Laikipia 1.3.3 Milk production Increase in milk production was reported in 57 percent of the counties with the remaining 43 percent reporting a stable trend. The increase is attributable to high rates of kidding and lamping in small stock and calving in cattle plus improved livestock body condition due to stable forage regime and low morbidity rates. (Table 4). The production level over the reference period was above the usual seasonal range in approximately 61 percent of the counties and at par with the normal level in about 39 percent of the counties. Samburu and Embu recorded the lowest production of 0.5 and 0.8 litres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, mortalities witnessed over the previous seasons as a result of drought and floods still had a bearing in the production levels witnessed over the current season. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worse Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Kajiado, Kwale Kilifi, Kitui, Nyeri, Narok Laikipia Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Garissa Embu, Meru, Lamu, Samburu West- Pokot, Tana River Marsabit Samburu Taita- Taveta Isiolo, Kajiado Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Wajir Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Laikipia, Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Garissa Samburu Kilifi, Embu Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni Taita- Taveta 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) was reported in Huhoini (Igwamiti ward, Laikipia West sub county), Siana and Nkareta wards in Narok West and Narok North sub counties and Lelan in Pokot South sub county in West Pokot county. Equally, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was reported in Riachu, Mwiyogo and Malee in Tigithi ward,of Laikipia East sub county. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions were reported in Maalimin and Dujis locations within Lagdera sub county of Garissa county and some parts of Mandera while reports of cattle deaths continue emerging from Nanighi in Garissa county and the cause is yet to be established.. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) continue to be controlled inin Marsabit county with cases of tsetse flies among the large stock being noted in the plains of North Horr. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Improving to a stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in estimated 82 percent of the ASAL counties across April (Table 5). However, decline in price was recorded in Turkana, Samburu, Narok and Tharaka Nithi attributable to market surplus as a result of the livestock being within the homesteads and therefore readily disposed coupled with destruction of access roads by floods thus limiting market access for competitive prices. On the other hand, the positive trend reported in majority of the areas was due to the improved cattle body condition. The prevailing cattle market price was above the usual seasonal price in all counties except in Taita Taveta whose reported price was at par with the long-term average. Above average cattle price was as a consequence of the continuous improvement in the body condition of the species driven by better rangeland conditions since the previous short rains season. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Meru Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kitui, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Nyeri, West Pokot Taita- Taveta Marsabit Kilifi, Kitui Kwale Lamu, Meru Makueni Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Nyeri Mandera Tana River Wajir, Embu Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Narok Tharaka- Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to over supply to markets driven by increased food needs at the household level over the April holiday and damage of road and market infrastructure,however the trend remained stable and improving across the ASAL counties(Table 6). Price positivity in the aforementioned counties was driven by improved goat body condition, low market volumes and high demand for utilization during the festive period. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the normal prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition. Based on the current demand-supply dynamics and the hoarding practices by pastoralists as a result of the good rangeland conditions; the price is projected to remain above the seasonal ranges for at least two months. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Lamu Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Wajir, Nyeri Samburu, Embu, Kwale Tana River, Meru, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Makueni West Pokot Garissa Mandera Tana River Wajir Kajiado Kitui, Lamu Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Laikipia, Narok Makueni Meru, Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production River The enhanced rainfall had resulted to flooding in the county with significant proportion of the cropland remaining submerged in water hence reducing the area under crop production. Irrigated crops in the major irrigation schemes were at various vegetative growth stages. Kitui Main crops (millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize) planted earlier in the season were at weeding stage and generally in good condition. Makueni Crops were at germination to knee high stage and in good condition. However, crops in parts of Kibwezi East and Kibwezi West sub counties were experiencing moisture stress following poor distribution of rains in the area. Infestation of invasive weeds was also hindering farming activities especially in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone. Leaching in the low-lying areas had led to stunting of maize and yellowing of beans.. Poor crop performance was being experienced in parts of Tigania with the beans and maize being at the vegetative stage. Agro- pastoral Baringo Flooding of farms was reported in Sandai, Barwessa, Kabutiei and Kapluk locations. Acreage under crop production was anticipated to reduce further due to the expected further flooding. Laikipia Maize was at germination stage to knee high, beans at germination stage to four leaf stage and potatoes at germination stage to tuber initiation stage. High cost of farm inputs at the stockist and high cost of casual labour were major constraints to optimal production. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at knee high stage with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. The ongoing flooding had led to extreme loses especially along the irrigation schemes. About 60-80 percent of the crop is submerged with roughly 20-50 percent being washed away in these areas. 1.4.1 Maize prices Generally, the price of maize was stable and on reducing trend as result of good harvest from the previous short rains season.. Factors promoting price decline ranged from injection of more supplies to local markets by traders that were sourcing from markets adjacent to the respective counties, bumper harvests following a good short rains season, decline in fuel pump prices hence reduced transportation costs to appreciation of the Kenyan Shilling however destruction of roads by floods had some slight impact on markets due to limited access. . Table 8.0: Maize prices, April 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana- River, Turkana Wajir Kilifi Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Narok Baringo, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo Samburu Tana River Kajiado Nyeri West Pokot Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia Mandera, Makueni Marsabit, Wajir Turkana, Meru, Lamu, Kwale Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Narok Tharaka- Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources remained stable and on improving trend across the counties . The decline in trekking distance could be attributed to improved water availability in facilities adjacent to households following the significant recharge that took place. Currently, the distance averages 4.7 kilometres compared to 5.5 kilometres previously among the Arid counties. Mandera county reported the longest distance of 8.2 kilometres while Isiolo recorded the shortest distance of 1.7 kilometres. In relation to the semi-arid counties, the distance currently averages 2.7 kilometres compared to 3.8 kilometres across March. The longest distance of 5.6 kilometres among the semi-arid counties was recorded in Lamu while the shortest of 1.1 kilometres was reported in Kilifi. The prevailing trekking distance in 70 percent of the counties was below the usual seasonal range and at par with the long-term average in four counties as illustrated in table 9. On the other hand, lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by sustained recharge of water facilities from the previous short rains season into the current long rains season. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Tana- River, Kitui Makueni Wajir Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu, Narok Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Kitui Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Narok Tana River, Nyeri Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru Makueni, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Embu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kwale 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced long rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 9.2 kilometers whereas Tana River County having the shortest at 2.0 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.0 kilometers to 6.5 kilometers, with Lamu reporting the longest and Tharaka Nithi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Kwale Makueni Nyeri Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Embu Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Taita Taveta Laikipia, Meru Narok Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi River Kilifi Makueni Narok West- Pokot Mandera 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. Improved terms of trade is as result of stablising livestock prices against the reducing maize prices as result of good harvest from the previous season.. T Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Meru Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, West Pokot Makueni, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta Baringo, Lamu Garissa Mandera Tana River Wajir, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Meru Marsabit Samburu Kwale Laikipia Turkana Kilifi, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Improvement in the nutrition situation was noted across the ASAL counties (Table 12). Among the notable drivers cited for the observed positive trend included: improved access to milk for consumption and stabilized food security situation at the household level and improved hygiene and sanitation practices. Nutrition situation deteriorated in West Pokot and Mandera as a consequence of non-food related drivers such as increased morbidity rates for diarrhea, malaria and other water borne diseases and poor childcare practices. Overall, the reported malnutrition rates remained below the normal ranges in approximately 65 percent of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 35 percent of the counties. The positive situation could be attributed to the general improvement in food security across most ASAL counties due to improved crop and livestock productivity. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Wajir Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Kitui Nyeri Taita- Taveta Mandera West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions Sector Intervention safety nets Food assistance to households displaced by floods and scaling up shock responsive cash transfers targeting the population categorized under IPC phase 3 as a consequence of losing livelihoods during the historic prolonged drought across the ASAL counties. Coordination Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate floods response activities and implementation of resilience strengthening initiatives through convening regular meetings, monitoring and reporting. Livestock sector Conduct restocking exercise targeting areas that reported high mortality rates and vaccination drives against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever. Improving access to extension services Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. Peace security sector Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Education sector Rehabilitation of infrastructure destroyed by floods while promoting hygiene and sanitation practices in learning institutions. Health nutrition sector Promotion of hygiene and sanitation activities within high risk communities and managing malnutrition through supply of essential nutrition commodities (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food RUTF and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th April, 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 month as at VCI-3 month as at April Colou values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 52.17 50.68 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across three Sub counties while Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo South recorded normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month. Central 76.35 70.16 North 57.05 52.05 South 45.15 43.01 Ravine Mogotio 41.61 40.92 Tiaty 46.57 42.53 Mandera County 87.45 77.13 Lafey 74.69 North 85.68 74.66 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Banissa 65.85 52.15 81.42 79.13 South 107.51 99.17 Turkana County 57.27 68.48 All the Sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness except Turkana East whose vegetation condition was within the normal band just like the previous month. 37.39 41.88 South 51.16 Loima 70.39 75.66 Central 62.91 70.85 78.14 North 54.73 67.32 Marsabit County 73.77 72.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Laisamis 89.18 77.27 Moyale 77.46 73.17 North Horr 62.34 61.79 106.88 87.15 Wajir County 86.77 Stability in the condition of vegetation was observed over April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across the respective Sub counties. Tarbaj 90.03 82.69 North 96.31 89.58 South 76.82 98.17 77.64 Eldas 89.42 89.64 80.25 Samburu County 74.55 75.74 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation greenness with a slight shift in the VCI-3month values from those recorded previously across the County. 76.88 76.03 North 78.08 81.07 52.52 51.63 Garissa County 76.09 Stability in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all sub counties. Balambala 76.42 71.39 Township 81.69 74.42 Ijara 91.79 91.85 78.76 75.07 Lagdera 84.58 79.61 Dadaab 65.29 62.69 Isiolo County 92.63 78.12 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. North 85.73 South 83.05 75.18 Tana River County 68.79 70.07 71.87 67.15 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Galole 59.43 65.19 Garsen 72.03 75.16 Kajiado County 88.12 85.87 county reported above normal vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado North. Central 89.13 81.08 87.46 79.90 North 95.47 South 82.43 74.63 92.48 87.71 County 76.54 77.36 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Manyatta 84.41 90.32 Mbeere North 74.43 75.22 Mbeere South 72.07 72.66 Runyenjes 89.26 93.45 Kitui County 64.36 65.82 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Central 81.69 61.61 60.15 Rural South 67.05 68.09 73.54 69.17 Mwingi Central 56.62 55.77 Mwingi North 57.42 53.54 Mwingi West 76.54 71.62 Makueni County 85.85 81.31 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant regeneration was witnessed in Kaiti. Kaiti 93.96 97.18 Kibwezi East 88.49 75.12 Kibwezi West 79.99 76.18 Kilome 90.26 91.53 Makueni 83.15 80.79 Mbooni 89.33 87.47 County 82.12 78.28 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Buuri 86.54 Central-Imenti 79.26 80.68 Igembe Central 79.63 75.57 Igembe North 90.98 85.16 Igembe South 70.63 74.49 North Imenti 78.45 79.18 South Imenti 88.87 Tigania East 74.48 75.42 Tigania West 83.75 80.69 Nyeri County 81.67 88.57 Kieni 78.74 83.61 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Mathira 85.93 Mukurweini 89.47 92.14 Nyeri Town 82.75 Othaya 94.36 86.95 90.26 Kilifi County 70.53 71.39 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Ganze 66.22 72.27 Kaloleni 68.79 65.07 Kilifi North 71.22 70.55 Kilifi South 60.73 58.18 Magarini 72.75 71.22 Malindi 72.15 77.65 Rabai 76.41 76.94 Kwale County 83.72 82.93 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kinango 81.46 Lunga Lunga 85.51 84.68 Matuga 84.35 82.39 Msambweni 78.37 75.84 County 101.23 102.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Lamu East 107.48 109.23 Lamu West 97.61 99.19 Taita Taveta County 85.87 82.51 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Regeneration in Voi was fair due to the low amount of rainfall received. Mwatate 90.62 86.36 Taveta 77.57 78.49 Wundanyi 102.79 97.82 Narok County 87.95 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 95.74 91.88 Kilgoris 79.05 Narok East 88.33 82.56 Narok North 75.04 76.92 Narok South 92.41 96.18 Narok West 86.83 West Pokot County 48.86 51.49 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones of Pokot South and West while Pokot North and Central reported normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month. Kacheliba 39.98 Kapenguria 50.15 53.61 Pokot South 72.95 77.12 Sigor 53.28 Tharaka Nithi County 67.27 63.11 Chuka 81.19 78.36 Maara 83.13 87.22 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Tharaka 56.95 51.98 Laikipia County 61.36 56.33 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia East 69.29 68.14 Laikipia North 64.21 61.76 Laikipia West 42.79 Table 16.0: Indicators Monitored by the Drought Early Warning System Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop condition Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (goatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping strategies Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: Normal, Alert, Alarm, Emergency or Recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5: Drought Cycle for Phase Classification",
            "May_2024.pdf": "May 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet condition are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASAL with exception of the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually receives JJA rains. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of May 2024. Fig 1: Droug ht Phase Classification, May 2024 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 May 2024 Rainfall Performance The May 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received above average rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Wajir county received very low amount of rainfall ranging between 25mm 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded rainfall amounts ranging between 75mm 300mm. Turkana County received low amounts of rainfall up to 25mm 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received amounts of rainfall ranging between 25mm to 76mm. Taita Taveta county received the least amount of rainfall within the coastal cluster as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 June 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of June 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly dry with sunny conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts Figure 2. May 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. June 2024 Rainfall forecast of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2024 with that of the previous month of April 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of May remained the same when compared to that of the month of April. April 2024 May 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of April and May 2024 The month of May 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous March, April and May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. The following one (1) county; Baringo recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in May 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, April 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of May 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Baringo Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot (107) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa county reported fair forage, which is attributable to Tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May Long Rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, May 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 2). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Noteworthy, the observed livestock body condition in May exceeded the one usually witnessed over the month. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, May 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Tana River Garissa Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Wajir Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Mandera, Laikipia Kajiado Tana River Makueni, Narok, Kilifi Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in May was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Samburu recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.7 litres among the Arid counties while Embu reported the lowest average of 0.9 litres among the Semi-Arid Counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Samburu Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Meru Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Embu Wajir, West Pokot Isiolo, Kilifi Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Taita- Taveta Kitui 1.3.4. Livestock diseases During the month under review, suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle was reported in Siana, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok, Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone of Lamu, Igembe North and Tigania West in Meru. Confirmed cases of lumpy skin disease (LSD) was recorded in Matanya, Solio and Nyahururu in Laikipia while an outbreak of the same affecting cattle was reported around Kibish in Turkana County. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions was witnessed in Maalimin and Dujis in Garissa with an upsurge of the same being noted in Marsabit and Mandera where epidemiological investigations were ongoing. Reports of cattle deaths attributed to suspected vector-borne illnesses emerged from Nanighi in Garissa with trypanosomiasis, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis suspected to be contributing to the mortalities witnessed. Additionally, cases of foot rot disease were reported in areas of Kathangachini and Gatunga Wards in Tharaka Nithi. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in approximately 78 percent of the counties over the period under review (Table 5). The positive trend reported in majority of the areas, was as a result of the improved cattle body condition hence a better market return value. Notably, decline in price was recorded in five counties constituting 22 percent of the ASALs including Kitui, Kajiado, Garissa, Embu and Kilifi attributed to high traded volumes following the reopening of schools. The reported price in May was above the LTA in all counties except Taita Taveta where it was at par with the normal price for the period. Notable factors driving the observed situation included enhanced availability of pasture across the Long Rains season that sustained the body condition within desirable levels, market deficits in some regions and high demand for meat within external markets. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Makueni Marsabit, Samburu Turkana, Wajir, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri West Pokot, Laikipia Mandera, Embu, Garissa, Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana, Baringo, Isiolo, Wajir, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Nyeri Mandera Tana River Samburu Makueni West Pokot, Marsabit, Kilifi, Kajiado Kitui, Garissa 1.3.6 Goat Prices Over the subject reference period, about 61 percent of the counties reported an improving trend while the price in Marsabit, Samburu and Makueni remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. Among the factors driving the positive trend included improved goat body condition occasioned by the availability of palatable browse within sites in close proximity to households and water sources hence reduced trekking distance. On the other hand, about 26 percent of the ASAL counties recorded a negative trend purely driven my market surplus as parents sought to facilitate their children back to school through sale of the most liquid asset (Table 6). Notably, the reported price across all counties in May was above the corresponding long-term average as depicted in table 6. The scenario was basically influenced by the sustained improvement in the body condition throughout the March to May rainfall season with the situation projected to remain similar across June. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Meru Tana River, Wajir, Laikipia Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, West Pokot Lamu, Makueni, Garissa Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Embu Tharaka Nithi, Narok Baringo, Nyeri, Tana River, Lamu, Laikipia Turkana, Kilifi Kajiado, Kwale Taita Taveta, Meru, Narok West Pokot Garissa Marsabit Samburu Makueni Isiolo, Embu Wajir, Kitui Tharaka Nithi Mandera 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui Main crops planted were mostly at past knee-high stage with their condition being generally good. Makueni Crops were at knee highflowering stage and in fair to good condition while in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the crops were at poddingtussling stage. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were incurring losses due to water logging. maize was at tussling stage while legumes were at the flowering stage in Mixed Farming Zone while in the Marginal mixed farming zone, maize was at grain filling stage with legumes being at podding stage. Agropastoral Kajiado Crops were at maturity and in fair condition with beans mainly in Loitoktok at podding stage while maize had started tussling. Heavy rains resulted to water logging, soil erosion and nutrient leaching on most farms. Fall Army Worm was reported in about 40 percent of the farms with Tuta absoluta reported in about 35 of the farms. Laikipia Weeding and spraying against pests and diseases was ongoing. Crops had been affected by water logging and excessive moisture leading to the leaching of nutrients and reduction in expected yields mostly for beans and potatoes. Maize was at knee high to reproductive stage, beans at weeding to reproductive stage and potatoes at spraying to earthing up stage. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at grain fillingtasselling stages with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. Coast Marginal Agriculture Kilifi Main farming activity ongoing was maize and cassava crops weeding with few farmers planting while the condition of the crop was poor. 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize declined in majority (57 percent) of the counties with stable trend being recorded in roughly 30 percent of the counties while Embu, Garissa and Kwale recorded a slight increase in the trading price (Table 8). Increased supplies to the market from external markets and via imports and reduced transportation costs were cited as the major drivers of the price decline while increasing reliance on markets within the marginal agriculture areas where household stocks were dwindling compounded by poor road infrastructure that disrupted distribution in some areas were noted as the factors driving the upward shift in maize price. Comparatively, the prevailing price was below the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties and above in roughly 26 percent of the counties with Turkana returning a price that was at par with the LTA. The noted positive scenario was as a consequence of continuous supply of the commodity to markets, availability of substitute cereals and increased cross-border imports leading to a relatively stable market performance. Table 8.0: Maize prices, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Isiolo, Kwale Wajir, Meru Kilifi, Nyeri Tharaka- Nithi, Narok Garissa Laikipia Mandera Turkana Marsabit Tana River Makueni, Taita- Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Nyeri Marsabit, Garissa Samburu, Laikipia Tana River, Kwale Lamu, Mandera Meru, Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Makueni, Taita- Taveta Wajir, Kitui, West Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (7.7km) and Isiolo the shortest (1.8Km) among the Arid counties. Lamu recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Meru reported the shortest (1.4km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water recharge during the March April May rainfall season of 2024. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Lamu, Wajir Kwale, Garissa River Pokot Mandera Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Nyeri Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Nyeri Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Turkana, Makueni, Meru, West Pokot, Nyeri Mandera Lamu, Marsabit Samburu, Narok Tana River, Taita Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Kilifi Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 11 kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 2.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, Kwale reported the longest and Embu the shortest distances at 4.4km and 2.1. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Marsabit, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi Kwale, Laikipia Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Narok West Pokot Kwale Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana, Garissa Wajir, Kajiado, Kilifi, Nyeri Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Mandera, Embu Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Lamu, Makueni Meru, West Pokot, Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana- River, Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Embu, Taita- Taveta Kajiado Narok Tharaka- Nithi. Garissa 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Turkana reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were above normal when measured against the longterm average. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, May 2024 Current Status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Embu, Wajir Isiolo, Kitui, Kilifi, Lamu Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, West Pokot Tana River, Turkana Kajiado, Kwale, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Garissa Baringo, Laikipia Samburu Turkana, Nyeri Kajiado, Narok Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, West Pokot Taita Taveta Tana River Isiolo Garissa Marsabit Garissa Wajir Mandera Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Kilifi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kitui Tana River Turkana, Lamu Makueni West Pokot Garissa Mandera Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri Samburu, Embu, Narok Kajiado, Kwale Taita Taveta, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Kilifi Turkana, Wajir Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Garissa Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Mandera Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Pokot Tana River 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, May 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kilifi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in June- September 2024, before onset of OND2024 season. Stakeholders to sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. safety nets Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains; Support for point-of-use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during OND 2024. Health nutrition sector Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. Peace security sector Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. Education sector Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote home grown solutions to school feeding programmes . Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th May 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 28th VCI-3 month as at 26th Colour values (3- month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 49.63 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in May. Central 69.63 69.63 North 52.76 52.76 South 44.27 44.27 Ravine 78.53 78.53 Mogotio Tiaty 43.93 43.93 MANDERA County 77.01 77.01 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of April at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 71.93 71.93 North Banissa 56.75 56.75 79.53 79.53 South 98.06 98.06 60.53 60.53 TURKANA County 64.04 64.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 39.19 39.19 South 54.89 54.89 Loima 74.56 74.56 Central 61.75 61.75 81.27 81.27 North 64.31 64.31 MARSABIT County 68.75 68.75 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to previous month of April. Laisamis 79.12 79.12 Moyale 69.35 69.35 North Horr 61.74 61.74 87.21 87.21 WAJIR County The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in May, as compared to the previous month of April. Tarbaj 86.82 86.82 North 89.17 89.17 South 75.01 75.01 77.92 77.92 Eldas 80.05 80.05 84.99 84.99 SAMBURU County 74.94 74.94 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 74.88 North 81.46 81.46 52.33 52.33 GARISSA County 76.47 76.47 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Balambala 69.64 69.64 Township 71.56 71.56 Ijara 90.82 90.82 Lagdera 81.43 81.43 Dadaab 63.43 63.43 ISIOLO County The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in April, which was stable when compared to last month. North 87.27 87.27 South 76.48 76.48 County 68.78 68.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the RIVER 68.01 68.01 month of May. Galole 62.43 62.43 Garsen KAJIADO County 82.39 82.39 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Central 85.88 85.88 82.74 82.74 North 91.86 91.86 South 73.95 73.95 86.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 55.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 68.22 North 58.96 58.96 43.52 43.52 THARAKA NITHI County 64.28 64.28 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 82.85 82.85 Maara 86.65 86.65 Tharaka 50.13 50.13 POKOT County 84.99 84.99 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Kacheliba 52.87 52.87 Kapenguria 44.09 44.09 Pokot south 54.06 54.06 Sigor 77.04 77.04 County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.64 89.64 Mbeere north 74.81 74.81 Mbeere south 70.08 70.08 Runyenjes 92.78 92.78 KITUI County 62.67 62.67 Kitui central 82.99 82.99 Kitui east 60.93 60.93 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Kitui rural 76.75 76.75 Kitui south 66.18 66.18 Kitui west 67.29 67.29 Mwingi central 55.11 55.11 Mwingi north 53.92 53.92 Mwingi west MAKUENI County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May, which was stable when compared to previous month of April. Kaiti 99.92 99.92 Kibwezi east Kibwezi west 75.34 75.34 Kilome 89.68 89.68 Makueni 79.78 79.78 Mbooni 87.69 87.69 County The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of May. Buuri 86.26 86.26 Central Imenti 81.26 81.26 Igembe central 76.93 76.93 Igembe north 86.43 86.43 Igembe south 71.26 71.26 North Imenti 80.63 80.63 South Imenti 91.41 91.41 Tigania east 74.47 74.47 Tigania west NYERI County 87.91 87.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in Kieni 85.63 85.63 Mathira Mukurweini 90.91 90.91 Nyeri town 87.36 87.36 Othaya 93.54 93.54 91.63 91.63 KILIFI County 70.36 70.36 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. Ganze 69.89 69.89 Kaloleni 67.23 67.23 Kilifi north 69.18 69.18 Kilifi south 51.35 51.35 Magarini 71.36 71.36 Malindi 77.55 77.55 Rabai 75.62 75.62 KWALE County 83.51 83.51 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 83.41 83.41 Lunga Lunga Matuga 84.11 84.11 Msambweni 72.37 72.37 County 102.41 102.41 Lamu east 108.88 108.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of May. Lamu west 98.67 98.67 TAITA TAVETA County 84.46 84.46 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. Mwatate 87.17 87.17 Taveta 92.87 92.87 78.91 78.91 Wundanyi 98.74 98.74 NAROK County The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of April which was stable when compared to the last month of April. Emurua Dikirr 86.11 86.11 Kilgoris 80.64 80.64 Narok east 84.97 84.97 Narok north 80.27 80.27 Narok south 93.87 93.87 Narok west 89.64 89.64 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Vegetation condition State of water sources Environmental Production Livestock body condition Milk production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Livestock production Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Milk consumption Distances to water Markets Access to food and water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Coping strategies Food consumption score Nutrition Coping Strategies SUMMARY OF THE DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification . EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 5 . RECOVERY Environmental indicators return to seasonal norms 1 . NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations . ALERT Environmental indicators fluctuate outside expected seasonal ranges 3 . ALARM Environmental and production indicators fluctuate outside seasonal ranges",
            "June_2024.pdf": "June 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview 23 ASAL counties continued to fall under the Normal drought phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet conditions are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASALs except for the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually receives JJA rains. The planned Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024 in July is expected to provide updated numbers of food insecure population in the ASAL counties. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of June 2023. Figure 1. June 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 June 2024 Rainfall Performance The June 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties remained dry during the month under review. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received less than 25mm of rainfall. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 26mm 75m. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties remained dry, receiving trace amounts of rainfall. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 51- 76mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 July 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of July 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Figure 2. June 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. July 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 Depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2024 from the previous month of May 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in June remained the same from that of the month of May. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of May and June 2024 The month of June 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. All the twenty-three (23) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot, Baringo and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in June 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, May 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). May 2024 June 2024 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (113) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa County reported fair forage, which is attributable to tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a result of enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 3). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Tana River Garissa Wajir Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Mandera, Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu Tana River Makueni, Narok, Kilifi Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in June was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Samburu Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Kitui Samburu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle were reported in Mutara, Suguroi, Kiamariga, Salama, Saba and Table land in Laikipia County, Tigania West in Meru, Siana, Mosiro and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Narok East and Narok North sub counties accordingly, Adamasajida Ward in Wajir West sub county, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango sub county and parts of Samburu. In Mandera and Turkana, cases of abortions affecting small stock were recorded with epidemiological investigations and sampling ongoing over the period under review. Equally in Garissa, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease was reported in Kumahumato, Dadaab sub county and Iftin in Township sub county. Additionally, estimated 2,865 goats in Marsabit presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths were recorded with the case fatality rate (CFR) being 20 percent. About 1,021 Sheep in the same County had clinical symptoms with 184 deaths being reported while the CFR was recorded as eight percent. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels were equally reported in Marsabit with the affected stock being about 1,618 out of which 185 had died. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the price of cattle was noted in majority of the counties during the month under analysis (Table 5). Improved cattle body condition attributed to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distance was cited as the major driver of the observed positive trend. However, a negative trend was noted in 39 percent of the counties ascribed to reduced demand against a stable supply of livestock in markets... Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot River Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Garissa Isiolo, Embu Tana River Turkana Makueni Meru, Narok Nyeri 1.3.6 Goat Prices Across the month of June, approximately 74 percent of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with the remaining 26 percent recording an improving trend (Table 6). The stability in the market price of goat could be attributed to the improved goat body condition occasioned by browse and water availability within household vicinity sites. Noteworthy, all the counties reported prices that were above the respective long-term average for the month with the situation being ascribed to the stable body condition over the period under review. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kwale Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Narok Tana River, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Nyeri, Embu 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties over the period under review. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South Marginal Kitui Maize was predominantly at maturity stage with the condition being fair in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone and poor in the Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone. Agriculture Makueni Most crops were at grain filling to harvesting stage and in fair to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. Maize harvesting was the major activity taking place with the yield expected to be below average due to destruction of crops through flooding over the Long Rains period and leaching resulting to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Meanwhile, a significant proportion of farmers in Igembe North and Central had opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as a folder for livestock. Agro- pastoral Kajiado The condition of crops was fair except in Kajiado South where it was fair to poor. Waterlogging, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching due to the enhanced rains affected crop production. Majority of the farmers were harvesting beans while maize was at the cobbing to maturity stages. Baringo Maize was at tussling stage in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones while beans were destroyed by the enhanced rainfall received across the March to May period with Tomatoes at harvesting stage. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fair to good condition. Laikipia Harvesting of beans and potatoes was ongoing with the yields being fair due to excessive moisture and water logging. Maize was above knee high to tussling stage with the production projected to be above normal due to the good performance of the Long Rains. Pokot Maize was at grain filling stage while beans and green grams were at harvesting stage. However, water stress posed a significant on attainment of maturity for Maize in some parts of the county. Coast Marginal Agriculture(CMA) Kwale Cereals were at knee-high, tussling and flowering stage while pulses were at podding to maturity stage. Weeding was the major activity while the condition of maize ranged from poor to fair due to poor distribution of rains despite normal onset. Kilifi As a consequence of the poor temporal distribution of the Long Rains, crops were in poor condition with the risk of crop failure affecting about 50 percent cropland being likely. 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize remained stable in majority (56 percent) of the counties with an improving trend being recorded in roughly 26 percent of the counties. (Table 8). Stabilization in maize price over majority of the counties could be attributed to availability of household stocks from the Short Rains harvests and seamless supply of maize from external markets and cross-border trading. Enhanced availability of maize as a result of continuous supply from internal and external sources coupled with availability of other complementary cereals were the main factor driving the observed situation. Table 8.0: Maize prices, June 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Marsabit Tana River Wajir Turkana Mandera Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Samburu, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, West Pokot Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Kwale Baringo Samburu Taita- Taveta, Tharaka- Nithi, Embu West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Turkana, Nyeri Wajir, Kajiado Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Tana River Laikipia Makueni Narok 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Unchanged trekking distance to domestic water sources was recorded in 61 percent of the counties with the distance increasing slightly in about 39 percent of the counties over the month under review (Table 9). Mandera and Kitui recorded the longest distances of 7.8 and 5.8 kilometres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Despite the recorded slight increase in some areas, generally the prevailing trekking distance over June was within the usual range in 83 percent of the counties and that could be attributed to the positive impact of two consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Turkana Wajir, Lamu Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Kitui Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Narok Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Makueni Baringo, Wajir Mandera, Meru Laikipia, Narok West Pokot, Lamu, Narok Lamu, Tana River, Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Samburu, Isiolo Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Kwale, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stability in return trekking distance from grazing areas to water points was noted in about 48 percent of the counties with the remaining reporting a slight increase relative to the previous month (Table 10). Unchanged trekking distance was as a consequence of water availability within the traditional usual grazing areas following the recharge that took place across the Long Rains period with the negative trend being occasioned by declining rangeland resources in some areas, reduced flow along some seasonal rivers and decrease in alternative water sources in specific counties. The longest distance of 13.6 kilometres within the Arid counties was recorded in Garissa while Kitui returned the longest distance of 6.5 kilometres among the Semi-Arid counties. With respect to the prevailing trekking distance during the period under review, only two counties including Kwale and West Pokot reported distance that was above the usual range for the period under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kwale West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Narok Taita- Taveta Garissa Nyeri Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Embu Kilifi, Makueni Baringo West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Tana River. Turkana, Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Stable terms of trade were recorded in about 65 percent of the counties with the remaining 35 percent of the ASAL counties recording a slight decline in relation to the previous month (Table 11). Stable maize prices driven by continuous supply following the recent harvests coupled with unchanged goat price whose body condition remained good were the major factors driving the observed stability. Garissa and Lamu reported the lowest terms of trade of 37.6 and 88 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, household purchasing power as exhibited through the terms of trade remained fairly elevated in all the counties as a consequence of the prevailing conducive economic factors. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot Tana- River, Baringo Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Lamu West Pokot Nyeri Garissa, Isiolo Tana River Embu, Laikipia Makueni Meru, Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable across majority of the ASAL counties during the period under review (Table 12). Notable factors driving the stability included: improved hygiene practices due to water availability, improved ease of access to health and nutrition services through outreaches coupled with improved milk consumption occasioned by the higher rates of calving. On the contrary, the negative trend reported in Narok and Embu was as a result of poor child care practices exacerbated by caregivers who were engaged in income generating activities. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the usual seasonal ranges in about 73 percent of the counties. Improved food security occasioned by better livestock and crop performance was the major factor influencing the below normal malnutrition rates in the ASAL areas across the period under analysis. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui, Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Laikipia Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Laikipia Isiolo, Lamu, Kitui Mandera, Marsabit Kajiado, Baringo Nyeri, Kwale Makueni, Kilifi Taita Taveta, Wajir Garissa, Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Embu, Narok 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, June 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Garissa, Kilifi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th June 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 26th VCI-3 month as at 30th Colour VCI values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 79.38 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Central 69.63 86.69 North 52.76 80.75 South 44.27 78.39 Ravine 78.53 81.19 Mogotio 71.09 Tiaty 43.93 80.05 MANDERA County 77.01 101.79 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of May at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 71.93 108.09 North 102.29 Banissa 56.75 79.53 110.15 South 98.06 100.13 60.53 102.63 TURKANA County 64.04 90.51 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 39.19 77.37 South 54.89 89.33 Loima 74.56 103.27 Central 61.75 97.02 81.27 92.83 North 64.31 88.33 MARSABIT County 68.75 94.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable when compared to previous month of May. Laisamis 79.12 98.25 Moyale 69.35 91.88 North Horr 61.74 93.55 87.21 93.82 WAJIR County 85.88 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in June, as compared to the previous month of May. Tarbaj 86.82 85.92 North 89.17 117.29 South 75.01 76.06 77.92 60.99 Eldas 80.05 91.83 84.99 97.91 SAMBURU County 74.94 99.56 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 98.13 North 81.46 105.04 52.33 86.23 GARISSA County 76.47 86.12 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Balambala 69.64 101.38 Township 71.56 81.31 Ijara 90.82 81.25 77.71 Lagdera 81.43 95.51 Dadaab 63.43 92.56 ISIOLO County The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in June, which was stable when compared to last month. North 87.27 81.45 South 76.48 TANA RIVER County 68.78 73.33 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. 68.01 Galole 62.43 64.44 Garsen 69.75 KAJIADO County 82.39 88.29 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Central 85.88 88.54 82.74 94.13 North 91.86 84.08 South 73.95 83.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 91.81 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 92.53 North 58.96 96.67 43.52 82.36 THARAKA NITHI County 64.28 78.68 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 82.85 90.32 Maara 86.65 83.99 Tharaka 50.13 72.59 WEST POKOT County 84.99 71.38 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kacheliba 52.87 65.14 Kapenguria 44.09 71.52 Pokot south 54.06 85.77 Sigor 77.04 74.11 County 90.21 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.64 84.86 Mbeere north 74.81 93.67 Mbeere south 70.08 89.62 Runyenjes 92.78 90.66 KITUI County 62.67 85.48 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Kitui central 82.99 97.94 Kitui east 60.93 91.86 Kitui rural 76.75 98.36 Kitui south 66.18 76.54 Kitui west 67.29 96.25 Mwingi central 55.11 93.55 Mwingi north 53.92 Mwingi west 101.35 MAKUENI County 90.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June, which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Kaiti 99.92 97.01 Kibwezi east Kibwezi west 75.34 92.13 Kilome 89.68 92.61 Makueni 79.78 102.96 Mbooni 87.69 103.2 County 86.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of June. Buuri 86.26 89.04 Central Imenti 81.26 Igembe central 76.93 89.29 Igembe north 86.43 89.11 Igembe south 71.26 87.55 North Imenti 80.63 77.87 South Imenti 91.41 83.04 Tigania east 74.47 83.51 Tigania west 83.14 NYERI County 87.91 83.42 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Kieni 85.63 84.97 Mathira 85.47 Mukurweini 90.91 Nyeri town 87.36 84.18 Othaya 93.54 76.95 91.63 76.31 KILIFI County 70.36 55.57 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Ganze 69.89 51.79 Kaloleni 67.23 60.43 Kilifi north 69.18 65.96 Kilifi south 51.35 60.94 Magarini 71.36 53.91 Malindi 77.55 65.86 Rabai 75.62 69.42 KWALE County 83.51 64.52 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango 83.41 61.36 Lunga Lunga 67.37 Matuga 84.11 72.94 Msambweni 72.37 66.78 County 102.41 92.09 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of June. Lamu east 108.88 92.84 Lamu west 98.67 91.65 TAITA TAVETA County 84.46 75.95 Mwatate 87.17 82.48 Taveta 92.87 84.76 78.91 69.26 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Wundanyi 98.74 88.78 NAROK County 83.59 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June which was stable when compared to the last month of May. Emurua Dikirr 86.11 78.74 Kilgoris 80.64 73.37 Narok east 84.97 81.84 Narok north 80.27 77.26 Narok south 93.87 85.19 Narok west 89.64 91.11",
            "July_2024.pdf": "July 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-two counties were categorized under the Normal phase except Kilifi (Alert) based on the range of environmental, production, access utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and ongoing JJAS light seasonal rains in western parts of Kenya. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase. However, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. The number of people in need of assistance has dropped from 1.5M in February 2024 to 1M in August 2024.The number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 847,932 (Feb 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has also reduced from 123,567 (Feb 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024(KFSSG LRA 2024) 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 July 2024 Rainfall Performance July 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received trace amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 20 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm 121mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 50mm. Agro Pastoral cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm igur 1. July 2024 Drought Phase Figure 2. July 2024 Rainfall Performance 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 60mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 August 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of August 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Parts of counties like Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia Kajiado, Kitui and Narok are forecasted to experience intermittent cold and cloudy conditions with occasional rains. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2024 with that of June 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in July remained the same compared to June. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of June and July 2024 July 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) compared to June 2024. Stability in vegetation was due to the impacts of MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties, coupled with JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties of Samburu, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties; Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in July 2024 indicates stability when compared to June 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. June 2024 July 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana and West Pokot, Baringo (108) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage conditions were predominantly good across all counties (Table 2). However, some areas in Garissa County reported fair forage due to tree locust infestation. Overall, the good forage situation, both in terms of quantity and quality, was attributed to the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is expected to continue through July due to the timely to slightly delayed cessation of rainfall in these regions. However, Kilifi County recorded poor browse condition attributed to poor performance of the 2024 long rains season in some parts of the county. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, July 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Embu, Mandera, Laikipia, Turkana, Garissa, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Garissa Taita Taveta, Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu, Samburu, Marsabit, Wajir, River, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of both cattle and goats was generally good to very good, as evidenced by the pictorial evaluation tool. Most counties reported significant improvement in the body condition of all livestock species throughout the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 86 of counties recorded the condition of cattle as good, and 82 reported the same for goats (Table 3). The availability of forage and water resources within shorter trekking distances was cited as a key factor driving this favorable situation. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, July 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Tana River Garissa Mandera Makueni, Narok Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Samburu West Pokot, Baringo, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu, Turkana, Wajir Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Meru, West Pokot, Taita Taveta, Kajiado, Samburu, Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in production levels was recorded in 70 of the ASAL counties, while the remaining 30 reported a stable trend (Table 4). The availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding, along with improved livestock body conditions, were cited as factors contributing to this trend. The prevailing yield levels reported in July were above the Long-Term Average (LTA) in about 70 of the counties, and below the LTA in 30 of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Garissa Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Baringo, Kwale Marsabit, Lamu Narok, Laikipia Tana River Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado Makueni, Kitui Samburu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Increased cases of abortions affecting goats and sheep were reported in Tiaty East sub county Mandera, Turkana and Samburu counties. Unconfirmed incidences of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were reported in Embu and Lolgorien and Keiyan wards in Narok. Suspected incidences of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Embu, Kitui, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty, Kwale county, Laikipia East (Tigithi and Thingithu), Agro-Pastoral Zone of Lamu, and Ademasajida ward in Wajir. Outbreak of blue tongue disease in sheep was noted in Garissa, Fafi sub-counties, Laikipia West (Salama Ward) and Kajiado county. In addition, Samburu reported outbreak of Pest De Petit Ruminants (PPR) in small stock while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels was witnessed in Garissa with suspected cases of Q-fever being recorded across Kajiado. Suspected plant poisoning in Songot ward, Turkana had resulted to 48 cattle deaths being recorded. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of cattle during the month under review (Table 5). The observed trend could be attributed to the good cattle body condition that was occasioned by pasture availability and reduced trekking distance to water sources. On the contrary, a negative trend was recorded in about 34 of the ASAL counties. Among the notable factors driving the negative trend included: reduced demand, reduced supply dictated by pastoralist asset holding tendencies, reduced external trader numbers, and restricted market access following the protests witnessed. Notably, the prevailing price in all the counties was above the corresponding usual price for the month as a result of the sustained good cattle body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot River Baringo, Garissa Tana River, Wajir Embu, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Isiolo, Kitui Samburu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices During the review period, about 87 of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with a negative trend being noted in Samburu, Kajiado and Kilifi (Table 6). Improved goat body condition was the major factor driving the observed stability while increased supply in the market as the seasons crop production performed poorly resulted to the negativity witnessed in the aforementioned areas. In addition, the prices reported in all counties were above the respective long-term average for the month of July and that was due to the sustained stable goat body condition throughout the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo Tana River Wajir Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Turkana, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Meru Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Kajiado Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Crop production that entails cultivation of food and horticultural crops is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a considerable age of households practice crop production mainly along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. During the month of July, agricultural activities taking place were as summarized in table 7. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kitui Maize was at maturity stage, and showed dismal performance, especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone while it was fair in the Mixed Farming Zone. Makueni Most crops were at harvesting stage and in fair to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. The projected crop production was about 60 of the long-term average. Harvesting ended in July with the production expected to be below average due to early cessation of the rainfall, destruction of crops by floods, leaching that led to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Farmers opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as fodder for livestock. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Majority of farmers harvested maize and beans yield at 31 and 14 above normal, respectively. Despite heavy rains causing flooding, the yields still surpassed the long-term average. Narok Currently, majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fairly good condition Pokot Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone are at harvesting stage with green maize being in fair to good condition, while those in Agro- Pastoral Zone were at tasselling stage but already stunted and wilted (poor condition). Taita Maize crop was at harvesting stage, while harvesting of pulses was ongoing for crops that were planted late. The crops were at various stages of growth but mainly poding and tasselling. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize was noted in majority of the counties (65 ) while the remaining areas (35 ) recorded an improving trend over the month under review (Table 8). Availability of maize from external markets and cross-border imports coupled with internal production were the major drivers of the observed trend. Reported maize price in July was lower than the long-term average in about 78 of the counties but above the usual price in Garissa, Wajir and Lamu due to high transportation cost since it is mainly sourced from external markets. Notably, availability of cereal substitutes, improved production since the previous season and continuous supply of the commodity from external sources were the major drivers that had sustained the price of maize below the usual range across majority of the counties. Table 8.0: Maize prices, July 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Mandera Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Taita Taveta, Narok Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Narok Garissa, Meru Mandera, Samburu Turkana, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Nyeri Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Taita- Taveta 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to domestic water sources was reported in 52 of the counties with the distance remaining stable in about 35 t of the areas while Baringo, Kwale and West Pokot recorded an improving trend (Table 9). Breakdown of some water facilities and reduced water volumes in the open water sources were the drivers of the observed worsening trend with stability being promoted by existence of alternative sources in some areas. The longest distance of 8.6 and 6.7 kilometers was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, the prevailing trekking distance in majority of the areas was below the usual seasonal range and that was due to the impact of the two previous rainfall seasons whose performance was above average. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Wajir, Kitui Kwale Lamu, Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Makueni Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kwale West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir Makueni, Narok Garissa, Embu Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance remained unchanged in roughly 30 of the areas but increased in about 52 of the areas with Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi recording an improving trend (Table 10). The worsening trend could be attributed to dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources that necessitated livestock to migrate to other areas in certain counties, insecurity, high disease prevalence in some zones and breakdown including dry up of some water facilities. Garissa and Kwale reported the longest distance of 13.7 and 5.7 kilometers among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Notably, the trekking distance reported during the month was within the usual range in majority of the counties (70 ) as a consequence of the sustained impact of the two consecutive above average rainfall seasons. Available water in these areas was anticipated to last for a period of 2-3 months. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui, Kwale Lamu, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Laikipia Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, West Pokot Makueni, Meru Baringo Samburu Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot Garissa, Kitui Mandera, Lamu Tana River Kwale Makueni Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Meru Turkana, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade The terms of trade were stable in 48 of the counties while the remaining 52 of the counties reported an improving trend as a consequence of the stable goat price coupled with declining maize prices (Table 11). The lowest terms of trade of 41.6 and 87 were recorded in Turkana and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Additionally, the recorded terms of trade in all the counties were within the usual seasonal range. Consequently, household purchasing power was slightly elevated due to the favorable terms of trade that were majorly influenced by the better goat return value and enhanced production that promoted stability in maize price throughout the period under review. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi Baringo, Nyeri Garissa, Isiolo Marsabit, Narok Tana River Embu, Kitui Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Mandera Samburu Wajir, Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Lamu, Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi 1.7. Health and nutrition Stable nutrition situation was reported in majority of the counties with about 39 of the areas reporting an improving trend over the month under review (Table 12). Improved milk consumption, low morbidity rates, improved food consumption occasioned by favorable terms of trade and fair casual labour wage rates and better hygiene practices were some of the factors driving the positive nutrition outcomes. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the normal ranges in approximately 83 of the counties with only Turkana, Lamu, Garissa and Baringo reporting rates that were above the long-term average. Among the major factors that were sustaining the below average terms of trade included consumption of diverse diets as a result of the enhanced crop and livestock production over the two seasons. On the contrary, the above average rates in the aforementioned counties were influenced by limited access to nutrition commodities following the scale down of health outreaches, constraints on child care behavior, poor infant and young child feeding practices. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Marsabit Kitui Makueni West- Pokot Isiolo, Taita Taveta Mandera, Kajiado Samburu, Laikipia Tana River, Kilifi Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kwale, Meru Narok, Nyeri Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Narok Nyeri West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Lamu Kajiado, Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Laikipia 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 22 ASAL counties were classified as being in the Normal phase while one(1) in Alert Phase of drought. However, an improving trend was observed in Isiolo County, while a worsening trend was reported in seven counties: Marsabit, Kitui, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Turkana, and Garissa. Notably, Kilifi County was recorded in the Alert phase, with a deteriorating trend, as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, July 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot, Samburu Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana Alert Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th July 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 79.38 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Central 86.69 90.34 North 80.75 87.43 South 78.39 83.73 Ravine 81.19 77.84 Mogotio 71.09 77.64 Tiaty 80.05 81.58 MANDERA County 101.79 111.03 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 108.09 118.65 North 102.29 113.89 Banissa 91.64 110.15 117.97 South 100.13 105.89 102.63 116.45 TURKANA County 90.51 72.92 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 77.37 73.07 South 89.33 80.58 Loima 103.27 84.04 Central 97.02 91.63 92.83 65.82 North 88.33 63.93 MARSABI County 94.74 92.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Laisamis 98.25 102.17 Moyale 91.88 90.67 North Horr 93.55 86.95 93.82 108.98 WAJIR County 85.88 84.32 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in July, as compared to the previous month of June. Tarbaj 85.92 North 117.29 127.07 South 76.06 67.16 60.99 63.07 Eldas 91.83 100.9 97.91 87.51 SAMBURU County 99.56 95.72 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 98.13 North 105.04 101.18 86.23 92.33 GARISSA County 86.12 75.56 Balambala 101.38 97.68 Township 81.31 72.07 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Ijara 81.25 68.62 77.71 63.57 Lagdera 95.51 89.68 Dadaab 92.56 83.62 ISIOLO County 77.02 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in July, which was stable when compared to last month. North 81.45 77.07 South 76.94 RIVER County 73.33 66.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Galole 64.44 56.14 Garsen 69.75 57.52 KAJIADO County 88.29 88.34 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Central 88.54 94.13 92.59 North 84.08 81.15 South 83.89 77.53 99.09 LAIKIPIA County 91.81 92.42 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 92.53 87.81 North 96.67 95.18 82.36 89.49 THARAKA NITHI County 78.68 81.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 90.32 90.59 Maara 83.99 84.27 Tharaka 72.59 76.86 POKOT County 71.38 73.47 Kacheliba 65.14 67.41 Kapenguria 71.52 77.93 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Pokot south 85.77 87.34 Sigor 74.11 72.55 County 90.21 92.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 84.86 84.33 Mbeere north 93.67 97.25 Mbeere south 89.62 Runyenjes 90.66 KITUI County 85.48 87.82 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Kitui central 97.94 108.56 Kitui east 91.86 93.31 Kitui rural 98.36 116.67 Kitui south 76.54 71.81 Kitui west 96.25 113.33 Mwingi central 93.55 101.01 Mwingi north 85.2 92.19 Mwingi west 101.35 113.98 MAKUENI County 90.74 95.56 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July, which was stable when compared to previous month of June. Kaiti 97.01 98.49 Kibwezi east 70.53 Kibwezi west 92.13 95.52 Kilome 92.61 94.01 Makueni 102.96 117.83 Mbooni 103.2 119.42 County 86.36 85.64 Buuri 89.04 90.84 Central Imenti 83.57 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of July. Igembe central 89.29 85.91 Igembe north 89.11 81.31 Igembe south 87.55 84.24 North Imenti 77.87 82.72 South Imenti 83.04 84.28 Tigania east 83.51 85.12 Tigania west 83.14 87.11 NYERI County 83.42 86.76 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kieni 84.97 87.43 Mathira 85.47 89.44 Mukurweini 90.19 Nyeri town 84.18 84.73 Othaya 76.95 83.82 76.31 82.03 KILIFI County 55.57 41.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 51.79 Kaloleni 60.43 42.62 Kilifi north 65.96 Kilifi south 60.94 50.71 Magarini 53.91 40.33 Malindi 65.86 50.62 Rabai 69.42 55.98 KWALE County 64.52 47.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in June which was Kinango 61.36 42.11 Lunga Lunga 67.37 48.22 Matuga 72.94 62.23 stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Msambweni 66.78 62.59 County 92.09 80.33 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of July. Lamu east 92.84 85.43 Lamu west 91.65 77.38 TAITA TAVETA County 75.95 68.97 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Mwatate 82.48 74.24 Taveta 84.76 76.97 69.26 62.23 Wundanyi 88.78 90.57 NAROK County 83.59 82.54 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July which was stable when compared to the last month of June. Emurua Dikirr 78.74 82.29 Kilgoris 73.37 67.13 Narok east 81.84 84.45 Narok north 77.26 76.64 Narok south 85.19 87.99 Narok west 91.11 87.08",
            "August_2024.pdf": "AUGUST 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Normal drought phase is expected to continue. Moreover, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.0. million. Acute malnutrition has also improved been noted across the counties with the number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition having reduced from 847,932 (February 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 123,567 (February 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024.Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2024. Figure 1. August 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 August 2024 Rainfall Performance August 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received low rainfall amounts. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 50 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including; Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu continued to receive good amounts of rainfall ranging between 51mm 200mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 20mm. Agro Pastoral cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 50mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 September 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of September 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West especially; Parts of Turkana and West Pokot counties are forecasted to receive near to above rainfall amounts. Figure 2. August 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2024 with that of the previous month of July 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of August remained the same when compared to that of the month of July. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August 2024 The month of August 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous July 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties (3); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation July 2024 August 2024 condition in August 2024 indicates a stability when compared to previous month, July 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit (1)Kilifi (Ganze) Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana and West Pokot, Baringo (104) (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, August 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Kwale Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri, Meru Wajir, Baringo West Pokot, Isiolo Marsabit, Samburu Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri Wajir, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Majority of the areas reported the body condition for both cattle and goats as being good to fair. Consequently, roughly 57 and 65 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle and goats respectively to be good to very good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of August was normal to above normal to the one normally witnessed during the period. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, August 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Nyeri, Garissa Kwale, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Stabilization in milk production attributable to improved yields from all species more so the small stock due to high birth rates was recorded in 61 percent of the counties (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed stable to improving trend included; minimal disease incidents, good body condition advanced by forage availability, limited migration and fairly better tropical livestock units. The production level over the reporting month was above the usual seasonal range. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Narok, Taita- Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Tana River Kilifi Baringo Turkana, Kwale West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Lamu Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka- Nithi 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) were reported across Kitui and Kajiado counties with Trypanosomiasis being recorded in Mutha and Kaziku wards in Kitui South Sub county. Increased incidences of endo and ecto parasites were reported in congested water points in Garissa while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels and Peste des Petits ruminants (PPR) in goats was reported in Fafi and Dadaab sub counties. In Marsabit, an estimated 2,865 goats presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths have been reported with a 20 percent case fatality rate (CFR). In addition, about 1,021 sheep had clinical symptoms while 184 died with 18 percent case fatality rate. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels have also been reported affecting about 1,618 out of which 185 have died. Samburu county reported increased cases of abortions in small stock. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the market price of cattle was noted over most areas during the reporting period (Table 5). Cattle body condition remained fair to good due to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distances hence the observed trend in market price. Counties reporting a negative trend in market price cited reduced demand as a result of the high and unattractive price for the usual buyers, market disruptions occasioned by disease and conflicts, and market surplus some driven by distress sales due to poor harvests as the drivers of the observed situation. Overall, the sustained good body condition during the month under review had resulted to prevailing price being comparably better to the one reported for a similar period over the past three years. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kitui, Meru Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Makueni Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Kwale Laikipia 1.3.6 Goat Prices Throughout the month under review, a stable trend in the price of goat at the market was recorded in all areas except in Kilifi and Wajir (Table 6). The noted positive trend could be attributed to a good goat body condition occasioned by availability of quality palatable browse in most areas while the negative trend in the aforementioned counties was due to low demand coupled with high supply in the market and increasing trekking distance to water sources in some areas that had impacted on the health of the species. Notably, the reported price was higher than the corresponding three-year average in all the counties and that was down to the sustained good body condition over the period driven by above average rangeland conditions across most areas following the above normal consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River, Lamu Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Tharaka- Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot Wajir Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties during the month of August. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Makueni Harvesting was still on-going in parts of the county with the yield expected to be roughly 60 percent of the long-term average. Cereals production is expected to be below average due to the early cessation of the March to May rainfall at the critical stage of pod and grain filling. In addition, crops were destroyed through leaching that resulted to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Farmers were harvesting pigeon peas with the yields being above normal due to the good performance of the rainfall season. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage and in fairly good condition. Laikipia Maize harvesting was ongoing across most areas and households were already consuming the green maize. There was invasion of migratory Quelea quelea birds in Laikipia West Sub-County that destroyed wheat and maize at the milking stage. Approximately 500 acres of wheat and 150 acres of maize had been affected. Meanwhile, the department of agriculture was managing the situation through ground spraying by use of motorist sprayers. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable in all the areas over the period under analysis (Table 8). Price stabilization could be ascribed to availability of the commodity in the market from internal sources (own farm production) plus supplementation by external supplies (with large stocks being held by traders and millers) from high agricultural potential areas whose market prices were not experiencing any volatility. Equally, the prevailing price was above the respective long-term average in about 78 percent of the counties attributable to above average production over the past two seasons, increased cross-border imports acquired at fairly low prices coupled with availability of other cereals like sorghum and rice that households supplemented their diets with hence low demand on maize. However, elevated prices above the historical three-year averages and basically deviating from typical price patterns was noted in about 22 percent of the ASAL areas with high transportation cost, local demand dynamics and potentially constrained local supply being the major drivers of the witnessed scenario. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Baringo, Wajir, Lamu Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Mandera, Kitui, Embu Samburu, Kwale Tana River, Kilifi Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta Narok, West Pokot Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Narok West Pokot, Nyeri 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, majority of the counties constituting about 78 percent reported unchanged trekking distances to water sources in relation to the previous period with Samburu recording a significant decline (Table 9). Increase in trekking distance noted in about four counties could be attributed to continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures. The longest distance of approximately nine(9) and 6.9 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Recorded distance in a significant proportion of the ASAL counties was below the respective five-year averages and that was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall over the previous long and short rain seasons that promoted remarkable recharge. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta Turkana Wajir Kitui Makueni Nyeri West- Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Kajiado Samburu, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok, Tharaka Nithi Samburu Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale, Narok Laikipia, Makueni Taita Taveta, Meru Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Kajiado 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stabilization in trekking distance from grazing zones to water points was noted in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining recorded an increase (Table 10). The worsening trend observed in the later counties could be attributed to reduced number of surface water sources due to drying up, insufficient water infrastructure in some sites hence inadequate water was impounded and decrease in alternative water sources. Notably the longest distance of 15.9 and 8.1 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. In addition, the prevailing distance was within the normal distance for the period in about 78 percent of the areas and that could be ascribed to availability of forage within sites in close proximity to water sources following the notable regeneration witnessed over the previous rainfall seasons. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni Narok Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Meru, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Turkana Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Kilifi Laikipia, Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo, Embu Kajiado Kitui Kwale, Lamu Makueni West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Unchanged terms of trade were recorded in majority of the counties with respect to the previous month while improvements were noted in Samburu, Tana River, Embu and Meru as a consequence of the drop in maize prices reported (Table 11). Stable goat and maize prices in most of the ASAL counties contributed to a greater extent towards the stability observed in the terms of trade across August. Turkana and Lamu counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 43 and 84 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. Notably, the prevailing terms of trade over the month under review were within the seasonal range in all counties driven by the enhanced maize stocks in the market and good body condition for goat that resulted to reduced prices for the commodity and better market returns for goat above the historical averages. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Samburu Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir Marsabit, West Pokot Tana River, Turkana, Lamu Embu, Kajiado, Kwale Samburu Tana River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Lamu Makueni, Kajiado Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Wajir West Pokot, Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable in majority (57 percent) of the counties across the period under analysis while about 21 percent of the counties reported a worsening trend (Table 12). Among the factors contributing to the stable with a tendency to improve in the nutrition situation in about 22 percent of the areas included: milk availability hence improved consumption levels and consumption of diverse diets driven by improved agricultural production and slightly elevated purchasing power that promoted access via the markets. The rise in malnutrition in the mapped counties could be linked to households selling their harvests to cover other costs often at the expense of maintaining healthy eating and chronic challenges associated with stunting and scale down of supplies to facilities in the management of malnutrition. Save for Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa whose reported malnutrition rates were outside the seasonal range attributable to closure of some health outreach sites, high prevalence of morbidities that affect nutrient absorption, poor health environments and child feeding practices, the rates in all the other counties were within their usual ranges. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Makueni Samburu Kitui West- Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Laikipia Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Laikipia Narok Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Marsabit Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Lamu, Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties except Garissa and Kilifi were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to worsening trend as shown in table 13. - Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, West Pokot Marsabit, Tana River Kitui, Kwale Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th August 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as August Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 88.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August. Central 90.34 85.78 North 87.43 86.89 South 83.73 87.22 Ravine 77.84 69.36 Mogotio 77.64 85.24 Tiaty 81.58 MANDERA County 111.03 119.68 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 118.65 125.72 North 113.89 Banissa 91.64 96.04 117.97 122.21 South 105.89 115.24 116.45 117.35 TURKANA County 72.92 88.4 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.07 73.12 South 80.58 82.06 Loima 84.04 82.16 Central 91.63 99.72 65.82 70.28 North 63.93 65.45 MARSABI County 92.67 101.58 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August which was stable when compared to previous month of July. Laisamis 102.17 101.36 Moyale 90.67 88.72 North Horr 86.95 92.58 108.98 112.66 WAJIR County 84.32 100.42 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in August, as compared to the previous month of July. Tarbaj 94.84 North 127.07 127.22 South 67.16 75.15 63.07 77.03 Eldas 100.9 87.51 91.44 SAMBURU County 95.72 95.69 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 96.16 North 101.18 93.62 92.33 89.45 GARISSA County 75.56 76.3 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Balambala 97.68 99.29 Township 72.07 76.48 Ijara 68.62 63.57 60.43 Lagdera 89.68 98.08 Dadaab 83.62 80.21 ISIOLO County 77.02 107.99 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in August, which was stable when compared to last month. North 77.07 90.52 South 76.94 88.75 RIVER County 66.67 80.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. 90.19 Galole 56.14 63.04 Garsen 57.52 62.05 KAJIADO County 88.34 114.07 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Central 88.92 92.59 102.43 North 81.15 88.03 South 77.53 84.83 99.09 115.09 LAIKIPIA County 92.42 103.11 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.81 North 95.18 98.81 89.49 92.54 THARAKA NITHI County 81.31 100.8 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 90.59 99.96 Maara 84.27 90.55 Tharaka 76.86 85.61 POKOT County 73.47 79.32 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Kacheliba 67.41 72.66 Kapenguria 77.93 79.59 Pokot south 87.34 81.63 Sigor 72.55 72.56 County 92.36 116.12 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 84.33 89.34 Mbeere north 97.25 110.87 Mbeere south 92.4 104.39 Runyenjes KITUI County 87.82 103.34 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 108.56 121.29 Kitui east 93.31 98.83 Kitui rural 116.67 134.98 Kitui south 71.81 79.06 Kitui west 113.33 127.86 Mwingi central 101.01 103.66 Mwingi north 92.19 97.36 Mwingi west 113.98 126.43 MAKUENI County 95.56 Kaiti 98.49 115.35 Kibwezi east 70.53 77.16 Kibwezi west 95.52 103.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August, which was stable when compared to previous month of July. Kilome 94.01 113.55 Makueni 117.83 131.77 Mbooni 119.42 137.64 County 85.64 95.22 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of August. Buuri 90.84 91.94 Central Imenti 83.57 82.48 Igembe central 85.91 Igembe north 81.31 89.81 Igembe south 84.24 85.59 North Imenti 82.72 77.67 South Imenti 84.28 86.76 Tigania east 85.12 92.47 Tigania west 87.11 97.05 NYERI County 86.76 88.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in August. Kieni 87.43 92.69 Mathira 89.44 88.99 Mukurweini 90.19 91.69 Nyeri town 84.73 84.18 Othaya 83.82 83.39 82.03 85.55 KILIFI County 41.22 41.01 Ganze 31.21 Kaloleni 42.62 Kilifi north 47.18 Kilifi south 50.71 44.87 Magarini 40.33 40.15 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Ganze, worsened to moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Malindi 50.62 47.42 Rabai 55.98 49.38 KWALE County 47.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in August which was stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Kinango 42.11 37.84 Lunga Lunga 48.22 37.67 Matuga 62.23 53.33 Msambweni 62.59 58.01 County 80.33 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of August. Lamu east 85.43 79.39 Lamu west 77.38 70.88 TAITA TAVETA County 68.97 87.02 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Mwatate 74.24 76.56 Taveta 76.97 85.15 62.23 70.75 Wundanyi 90.57 96.58 NAROK County 82.54 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of August which was stable when compared to the last month of July. Emurua Dikirr 82.29 81.59 Kilgoris 67.13 68.05 Narok east 84.45 90.38 Narok north 76.64 78.72 Narok south 87.99 101.97 Narok west 87.08 89.97",
            "September_2024.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Two (2) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on worsening trend in most of the ASAL counties due to delayed onset of OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of September 2024. Figure 1. September 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 September 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 2 presents the rainfall performance for September 2024. During this month, rainfall patterns varied across the ASAL counties: Pastoral North East counties like Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, and Garissa experienced minimal rainfall, receiving between 2 to 50 mm. In contrast, Pastoral North West counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, and Samburu observed significant rainfall ranging from 51 to 200 mm, attributed to the JJA season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties (Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, and Kitui) registered very low rainfall, between 2 and 20 mm. Agro-Pastoral areas (Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri, and West Pokot) received moderate rainfall, ranging between 11 to 50 mm. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, and Lamu) also saw low rainfall amounts between 11 to 50 1.1.2 October 2024 rainfall outlook Figure 3 shows the forecast for October 2024. The outlook suggests that: The Pastoral North East region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, and Garissa) and the South East Marginal Agriculture zone (Kitui, Makueni, Embu will likely experience sunny and dry conditions. Agro-Pastoral zones such as Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, and Laikipia are forecasted to remain predominantly dry. Similarly, the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale) are also expected to experience mostly sunny and dry conditions. However, parts of Pastoral North West counties, especially Turkana and West Pokot, may receive near to above-average rainfall. Figure 2. September 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. October 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2024 with that of the previous month of August 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of September remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of August. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of August and September 2024 The month of September 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of August. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two August 2024 September 2024 counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi (Ganze) Normal vegetation greenness Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (103) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, September 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Kwale Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Wajir, Baringo West Pokot, Isiolo Marsabit, Samburu Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Taita Taveta Turkana Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri Wajir, West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, September 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Nyeri, Garissa Kwale, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Samburu Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Turkana, Wajir West Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Kwale, Marsabit Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable however on a worsening trend (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed trend is deteriorating pasture and browse condition in select areas within different counties. The production level over the reporting month was at par with the usual production level but on a worsening trend in most of the counties in relation to August. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Nyeri Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita- Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Tana River Kilifi, Lamu Garissa, Marsabit Isiolo, Kwale Mandera, Lamu, Nyeri Tana River Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Baringo Turkana, West Pokot Samburu Wajir, Embu Kajiado Kilifi, Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka- Nithi, Garissa, Marsabit 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Confirmed cases of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in cattle were reported in Katilu and Kerio wards in Turkana while Tsetse fly infestation was witnessed in the cross-border areas of Loima and Turkana West. Various diseases including clostridial infections like Enterotoxaemia in sheep, abortions were reported in Kajiado. Suspected Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Kajiado, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango, Kitui (Mutha and Kaziku wards), Laikipia (Tigithi, Salama, Thingithu). In addition, confirmed cases of Blue Tongue were reported in Githiga and Olmoran wards in Laikipia West Sub County. Outbreak of pestes des petit ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats was reported in Laikipia (Olmoran) and across parts of West Pokot such as Chepareria, Masol, Lomut, Kiwawa. About 2,646 sheep and goats were vaccinated against the disease in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties continued reporting stable cattle prices across the period under review, however, a deteriorating trend was noted in Garissa, Wajir, Embu and Makueni (Table 5). The noted trend was as a consequence of the body condition of the cattle remaining fairly similar to the previous month driven by availability of pasture and water in some areas within the respective ASAL counties. Among the factors driving the price negativity in the aforementioned counties included market disruptions and surplus from last mile markets. Notably, the reported price in all the counties was above the long-term average as a result of the sustained FAIR to GOOD body condition of the cattle. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Embu Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Baringo Turkana Laikipia Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kwale Mandera Tana- River Garissa Wajir Makueni Marsabit 1.3.6 Goat Prices The price of goat remained fairly stable in majority of the counties throughout the month of September with price decline being noted in about 30 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 6). Stability in goat price could be ascribed to a good to fair goat body condition occasioned by availability of browse albeit in select areas within the different counties while low demand at the market was cited as the major driver of the observed price negativity in some counties. As a consequence of the rangeland conditions remaining relatively good following the previous two good rainfall seasons, the sustained good body condition of the goat resulted to all counties reporting a price that was above the respective long-term average for the period under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Nyeri Laikipia, Mandera Makueni, Samburu Narok, Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Garissa Kwale Tharaka- Nithi West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Among the clusters where agricultural activities that entail food and horticultural crops production include the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below depicts the crop situation across the ASAL counties during the month of September. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kilifi Farmers in the marginal mixed farming zone of Magarini Sub- county recorded some water melons, cassava and amaranths harvest. Taita Taveta Most farmers were undertaking land preparations and a few were doing dry planting. Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and maize stovers. In the mixed farming and irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kitui Minimal farming activities were witnessed with farmers having already harvested and waiting for the short rains season preparations for cultivation of various crops. The long rains harvests were dismal, owing to erratic rains that led to moisture stress on crops at grain filling stage, while those who planted their maize late realized total crop failure. Agropastoral Laikipia Some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were harvesting maize that was still in the farms. The projected yield is expected to be above average due to improved farming practices and favourable weather condition. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone were at harvesting stage with some farmers preparing land for the short rains season. Pokot Crops that survived water stress in the pastoral Livelihood zone were at harvesting stage (for green grams, sorghum and maize). In addition to rain-fed cropping, the main crops grown under irrigated farming were onions, tomatoes, cabbages and kales in parts of Pokot South and Pokot West Sub Counties. The crops were in various stages of growth and in good condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in maize prices was evident over all the counties during the period under review (Table 8). Among the factors driving the observed price stabilization included availability of the commodity in the market following the harvesting that was taking place coupled with external supplies and cross-border imports that were relatively cheaper. Notably, the recorded price in about 70 percent of the counties was below the respective long-term average while above the three-year average in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa attributable to over-reliance on external supplies and high transportation costs. On the other hand, below average prices in majority of the areas was as a result of reduced demand for maize occasioned by availability of cereal substitutes. Table 8.0: Maize prices, September 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- Garissa Wajir Mandera Turkana Kilifi Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River Samburu West- Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Samburu, Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to water sources was noted in about 70 percent of the counties over the month under analysis with unchanged distances in relation to the previous month being reported in Embu, Mandera and Tana River (Table 9). Continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures was the major factor driving the observed trend in majority of the areas. The longest distance of roughly 10 and 7.3 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Reported distance in about 35 percent of the ASAL counties was above the corresponding long-term average and that was as a consequence of the drying up of some water sources and increased break-downs witnessed across the period under review. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Kitui Kwale Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Narok West- Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Mandera Samburu Kwale Nyeri West Pokot Mandera Tana- River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Wajir, Kajiado, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit, Samburu 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Approximately 61 percent of the counties reported increasing distance to water points from grazing areas while unchanged distances with respect to August were noted in about 39 percent of the counties (Table 10). Drying up of some open water sources, drop in water table and breakdown of facilities due to overuse were cited as the drivers of the observed worsening trend in the water situation. The longest distance of 18.4 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. On the contrary, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was below the seasonal distance for the period and that could be attributed to availability of forage around some water sources occasioned by the massive regeneration that took place during the March to May period and sustained by the rainfall witnessed over the June to August period in some counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Baringo, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Mandera Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Lamu, Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Samburu 1.6 Terms of trade Majority of the counties constituting about 70 percent reported stable terms of trade in relation to the month of August while deterioration was noted in Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Meru and Samburu as a consequence of the slightly elevated maize prices and declining goat prices (Table 11). Garissa and Kilifi counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 41 and 104 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, the reported terms of trade in all the counties across September were above their respective long-term average attributable to fairly low trading price of maize aided by ongoing harvest and stocks from the previous season coupled with the body condition of goat that remained good over the past two seasons hence better market return value. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Samburu West Pokot, Mandera Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Baringo, Turkana Kajiado, Kitui Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Tana River Garissa Isiolo Wajir Kilifi Samburu 1.7. Health and nutrition Stability in the nutrition situation was witnessed across most counties while about 43 percent of the counties reported a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Availability of milk albeit in low quantities prioritized for consumption by the under-fives, and consumption of diverse diets due to the slightly elevated purchasing power were some of the drivers of the observed trend. On the other hand, scale down of nutrition supplies through outreaches and poor child care practices were the major drivers of the worsening trend in the mapped counties. All the counties except West Pokot, Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa reported malnutrition rates that were within the usual range with factors such as high morbidity rates and poor health care seeking behaviour contributing to the higher-than-average malnutrition rates observed. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Makueni West Pokot Kitui Isiolo, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Samburu Tana River, Marsabit Baringo Garissa Turkana, Embu Kwale. Makueni Narok West Pokot Samburu Lamu, Nyeri Taita Taveta Mandera Isiolo, Wajir Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 12 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase and on a stable trend, nine at Normal phase and on a deteriorating trend while two are at Alert phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, September 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, North, Nyeri, Samburu, Lamu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Tana River, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex1- Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th September 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as August VCI-3 month as at 29th Septemb Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 92.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Central 85.78 89.92 North 86.89 91.25 South 87.22 91.81 Ravine 69.36 Mogotio 85.24 94.51 Tiaty 97.16 MANDERA County 119.68 121.82 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of August at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 125.72 134.87 North 126.19 Banissa 96.04 99.71 122.21 122.06 South 115.24 118.73 117.35 126.38 TURKANA County 92.48 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.12 90.43 South 82.06 Loima 82.16 98.43 Central 99.72 106.27 70.28 92.72 North 65.45 83.71 MARSABI County 101.58 95.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September which was stable when compared to previous month of August. Laisamis 101.36 96.21 Moyale 88.72 95.66 North Horr 92.58 94.86 112.66 114.19 WAJIR County 100.42 98.15 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in September, as compared to the previous month of August. Tarbaj 94.84 105.88 North 127.22 126.02 South 75.15 82.11 77.03 90.45 Eldas 112.16 91.44 94.99 SAMBURU County 95.69 100.61 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 96.16 106.81 North 93.62 95.12 89.45 94.18 GARISSA County 74.5 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of September. Balambala 99.29 105.85 Township 76.48 74.11 Ijara 55.87 60.43 60.93 Lagdera 98.08 107.14 Dadaab 80.21 77.02 ISIOLO County 107.99 110.52 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 90.52 110.61 South 88.75 110.38 RIVER County 80.6 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of September. 90.19 90.19 Galole 63.04 63.04 Garsen 62.05 62.05 KAJIADO County 114.07 108.42 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. Central 88.92 98.91 102.43 114.06 North 88.03 82.11 South 84.83 98.51 115.09 LAIKIPIA County 103.11 101.22 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.33 North 98.81 109.63 92.54 92.18 THARAKA NITHI County 100.8 92.63 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 99.96 98.29 Maara 90.55 Tharaka 85.61 92.58 POKOT County 79.32 84.2 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kacheliba 72.66 83.67 Kapenguria 79.59 84.32 Pokot south 81.63 83.38 Sigor 72.56 85.55 County 116.12 105.34 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 89.34 78.08 Mbeere north 110.87 119.71 Mbeere south 104.39 109.59 Runyenjes KITUI County 103.34 100.77 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kitui central 121.29 130.65 Kitui east 98.83 104.7 Kitui rural 134.98 147.82 Kitui south 79.06 85.76 Kitui west 127.86 134.14 Mwingi central 103.66 106.09 Mwingi north 97.36 103.58 Mwingi west 126.43 136.45 MAKUENI County 115.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September, which was stable when compared to previous month of August. Kaiti 115.35 120.08 Kibwezi east 77.16 88.87 Kibwezi west 103.04 109.91 Kilome 113.55 124.63 Makueni 131.77 138.03 Mbooni 137.64 143.86 County 95.22 99.83 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of September. Buuri 91.94 100.5 Central Imenti 82.48 82.62 Igembe central 110.67 Igembe north 89.81 112.27 Igembe south 85.59 104.29 North Imenti 77.67 83.49 South Imenti 86.76 81.38 Tigania east 92.47 95.38 Tigania west 97.05 103.21 NYERI County 88.94 85.64 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Kieni 92.69 92.12 Mathira 88.99 82.94 Mukurweini 91.69 75.45 Nyeri town 84.18 75.96 Othaya 83.39 74.66 85.55 75.94 KILIFI County 41.01 37.71 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of September. Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 31.21 32.86 Kaloleni 43.36 Kilifi north 47.18 Kilifi south 44.87 42.56 Magarini 40.15 38.49 Malindi 47.42 40.92 Rabai 49.38 47.61 KWALE County 42.02 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in September which was stable when compared to last month. All sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Kinango 37.84 40.31 Lunga Lunga 37.67 40.26 Matuga 53.33 Msambweni 58.01 53.58 County 65.48 Lamu east 79.39 73.96 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of September. Lamu west 70.88 60.57 TAITA TAVETA County 87.02 81.15 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Mwatate 76.56 75.08 Taveta 85.15 96.52 70.75 74.33 Wundanyi 96.58 106.09 NAROK County 82.96 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of September which was stable when compared to the last month of August. Emurua Dikirr 81.59 Kilgoris 68.05 64.19 Narok east 90.38 84.97 Narok north 78.72 70.83 Narok south 101.97 99.13 Narok west 89.97 82.96",
            "October_2024.pdf": "October 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Nineteen counties categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season and just ended June to September (JJAS) light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Four (4) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on a worsening trend across most of the ASAL counties due to the delayed onset of the October December (OND) season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, the number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of October 2024. Figure 1. October 2024 Drought Phase 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 October 2024 Rainfall Performance As shown in figure 2, October 2024, Kenya experienced mostly below-normal rainfall across various regions. The PNE cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River) received notably low rainfall, with many areas seeing less than 50 of typical levels, especially in Mandera and Wajir. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) had significant deficits, with Turkana and Marsabit receiving very low amounts. In the CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta), rainfall was mostly below normal, particularly in Taita Taveta, which fell below 50 of expected levels. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) also experienced low rainfall, especially in Makueni and Kitui. The AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri) had mixed performance, with some areas like Baringo and Kajiado below normal, while parts of West Pokot and Nyeri approached near-normal rainfall. 1.1.2 November 2024 rainfall outlook The November 2024 rainfall forecast for Kenya indicates predominantly below-average rainfall across the specified clusters, as shown in figure 3. In the PNE cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), below-average rainfall is expected, with widespread dry conditions likely. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) is forecasted to receive near to below-average rainfall, though some areas may experience near-average conditions. The CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta) is also expected to face below-average rainfall, with coastal areas particularly affected. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) will likely experience near to below-average rainfall, signaling Figure 2. October 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 3. November 2024 Rainfall forecast generally dry conditions. In the AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall is forecasted to be near to below average, with potential near-normal conditions in some parts of West Pokot and Laikipia. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2024 with that of the previous month of September 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of October remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at moderate vegetation deficit and normal vegetation greenness index respectively. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of September and October 2024 The month of October 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of September. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one September 2024 October 2024 (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. One county (1); Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness, while one county (1); Kilifi recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi Kilifi (Ganze, North, Magarini, Malindi) Normal vegetation greenness Kwale Kilifi (South, Rabai, Kaloleni), Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Msambweni) Above normal Vegetation greenness Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Turkana Pokot, Baringo (102) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 74 and 65 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, October 2024 Pasture Browse Baringo, Kwale Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Embu Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Tana river Laikipia Narok Nyeri West Pokot Embu, Isiolo, Meru Makueni, Mandera Samburu, Taita Taveta Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Garissa, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Marsabit, Narok Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, October 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Mandera, Wajir Tana River Garissa, Kitui Marsabit, Baringo Samburu, Isiolo Kwale, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Nyeri Laikipia, Narok Turkana Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Meru Mandera, Wajir Tana River Garissa, Kitui Marsabit, Baringo, Nyeri, Kwale, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot, Laikipia Turkana, Samburu Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo 1.3.4. Livestock diseases In Turkana County Lumpy Skin Disease has spread to new areas in Turkana due to cattle migration from South Sudan and Ethiopia. CBPP cases were found in multiple wards, while Tsetse fly infestations and tickborne diseases like Anaplasmosis and Babesiosis affected parts of Turkana West. No livestock deaths from drought were reported. Kwale reported cases of foot and mouth disease, CBPP, and Newcastle disease, while Kajiado had suspected cases of Pleuropneumonia, PPR, East Coast Fever, Lumpy Skin Disease, and Sheep and Goat Pox. In West Pokot, community reports indicated suspected cases of foot and mouth, LSD, CBPP, CCPP, PPR, and Newcastle disease. Baringo saw only endemic cases such as CCPP, PPR, mange, and Sheep and Goat Pox. Garissa faced ongoing challenges with endemic diseases, including CBPP, CCPP, trypanosomiasis, and hemorrhagic septicemia, especially impacting small livestock and cattle. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Declining trend in the market price of cattle was noted in about 43 percent of the counties while stability was witnessed in the other areas (Table 5). Deterioration in the body condition of cattle as a consequence of fair to poor pasture condition in the reporting counties was the major driver of the observed negative trend. Additionally, increased market supply and distress sales due to poor harvests were other notable price drivers. The prevailing price of cattle was above the seasonal range in all the counties due to the impact of the previous two rainfall seasons that enhanced pasture and water availability hence limiting elongated trekking. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu, Lamu Tana River, Turkana, Meru Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Meru, West Pokot Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Kwale Tana River, Narok, Turkana, Lamu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in the market price of goat was recorded in majority of the counties constituting 83 percent with price decline being noted in select areas like Garissa, Tana River, Meru and Taita Taveta (Table 6). The major factor cited for the price negativity in the four counties was increased supply of goats to markets while the relative stability reported in most areas could be attributed to a good body condition occasioned by availability of dry browse in the counties. Sustained good rangeland conditions over time following the previous two enhanced rainfall seasons had resulted to all the counties reporting prices that were above the usual seasonal range owing to the good body condition exhibited by goats compared to historical periods. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Turkana Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Garissa Tana River Taita- Taveta 1.4 Crop production Food and horticultural crops production is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. In addition, within the other clusters, some households practice irrigated agriculture along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. Majorly, farmers were engaged in land preparation in anticipation of the short rains whose onset had delayed. Other crop production activities taking place in the various counties were as outlined in table 7.0. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Kilifi Minimal land preparation was ongoing as the short rains season recorded a delay with a high likelihood of recorded depressed rains. Harvesting of mangoes, cassava and amaranths was reported however the quantities were low. Taita Taveta Farmers were undertaking land preparation with few dry planting. Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and stovers to conserve as livestock feed. In the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale The major activity carried out by majority of the farmers was land preparation in anticipation of the OND onset that had delayed. Majority of the farmers were preparing their farms in readiness for planting while a small portion of farmers in the mixed farming livelihood zone were harvesting simsim. Most of the households currently have little food stocks due to below average production over the previous seasons. Kitui Land preparation and planting for the short rain season was on going in most areas with no germination witnessed as a consequence of the county not having attained the onset. Makueni Land preparation and dry planting was on going across the county in anticipation of the short rains for planting. Majority of farmers had planted maize and beans with a few engaged in land preparation. Along the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone of Tigania East, crops planted earlier had started withering due to moisture stress. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Farmers were still preparing their farms in anticipation of the short rains Narok Majority of farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were preparing land in readiness for the short rains season with those who had planted early engaged in weeding. Pokot Land preparation was ongoing with crops under irrigated agriculture in Pokot South and West at various stages and in good condition. Baringo The farmers were preparing their farms in anticipation of the short rains. Laikipia Farmers in Laikipia East Sub County were preparing their land in readiness for the October to December (OND) rainfall. However, some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia west and parts of Laikipia North Sub counties, farmers were finalizing with harvesting maize. Nyeri The main on farm activity was land preparation in anticipation of the short rains season. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the ASAL counties reported stable maize prices during the period under review with price increase being noted in 25 percent of the areas (Table 8). Increased supplies from external markets in the adjacent agricultural counties, cross-border imports coupled with availability of substitute cereals were some of the factors influencing the observed stability. Reported maize price was within the normal range in all the counties except Mandera, Wajir and Garissa whose prices were heavily driven by the high transportation costs. Availability of stocks at the household level hence reduced demand was the major driver for the below normal maize prices recorded across most counties in October. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Wajir Marsabit Turkana Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo, Meru Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia, Nyeri Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Turkana Wajir, Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kwale Narok West- Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household return distance to water source increased in roughly 44 percent of the counties while relatively unchanged trekking distances were recorded in approximately 56 percent of the areas throughout the month under review (Table 9). Limited water access options occasioned by dry up of open water sources like water pans and breakdown of boreholes in close proximity to households due to overuse were the major drivers of the observed trend. Garissa and Kitui reported the longest distance of 10.3 and 6.9 kilometers respectively among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Consequently, 39 percent of the counties recorded trekking distances that were outside the usual range following the high land surface temperatures that accelerated depletion of the water resource in a number of counties. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa, Nyeri Tana River Wajir, Kwale Lamu, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot Samburu Turkana Kilifi Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Mandera Marsabit, Embu Kajiado, Laikipia Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Lamu Marsabit, Embu Tana River Turkana, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo Samburu Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale Meru, Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Elongated return trekking distance to water from grazing areas was noted in about 61 percent of the counties while unchanged distances in relation to September were recorded in 39 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 10). Notable drivers of the observed worsening trend in the aforementioned counties included deterioration in the quality and quantity of forage in sites adjacent to open water sources, significant drop in water table especially within the pastoral livelihood zones and breakdown of boreholes utilized as livestock watering points. The longest distance of 18.7 and 8.2 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi- Arid counties respectively. Noteworthy, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was within the seasonal range attributable to the impact of the previous rainfall season that promoted recharge of water facilities and forage regeneration across most areas. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Kitui Kwale Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi West- Pokot Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Lamu Tana River, Narok Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Meru Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Stability in the terms of trade was recorded in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining counties reported a deteriorating trend in the terms of trade (Table 11). Declining goat prices coupled with marginally elevated maize prices were the major drivers of the worsening trend reported in 40 percent of the ASAL counties. The lowest terms of trade averaging 39.5 and 97 were recorded in Garissa and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively implying pastoral households were comparatively disadvantaged in these counties. With respect to the usual seasonal ranges, all counties reported terms of trade that were within the long-term average as a consequence of the relative stability observed in relation to livestock and agricultural productivity. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit Turkana, Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Kajiado, Kwale Lamu, Meru Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation as visualized through the mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) targeting under-fives remained relatively stable in majority of the counties with about 35 percent of the counties recording a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Consumption of fairly diverse diets, availability of milk for utilization by the under-fives coupled with roll out of health outreaches that enhanced access to essential nutrition commodities were some of the notable drivers of the observed trend. Poor child care practices and high morbidity rates were the other notable factors influencing nutrition situation deterioration in the select counties. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was within the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties with Baringo, Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni and West Pokot reporting out of the normal range proportions. The out of the long-term average proportions reported could be attributed to persistent poor health seeking behavior and child feeding practices Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Turkana Kitui Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu Makueni, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Turkana, Wajir Embu, Kwale Laikipia, Meru Narok 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 19 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while four Counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale and Tana River are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Marsabit, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot, Wajir Alert Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th October 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as at 29th Septemb VCI-3 month as at 27th October Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 92.65 93.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in September. Central 89.92 92.21 North 91.25 89.41 South 91.81 93.24 Ravine Mogotio 94.51 95.35 Tiaty 97.16 97.56 Mandera County 121.82 101.53 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of September at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 134.87 108.08 North 126.19 107.51 Banissa 99.71 78.92 122.06 101.33 South 118.73 104.61 126.38 99.36 Turkana County 92.48 87.61 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 90.43 85.43 South 94.88 Loima 98.43 95.94 Central 106.27 99.51 92.72 88.11 North 83.71 77.91 Marsabit County 95.94 86.53 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October which was stable when compared to previous month of September. Laisamis 96.21 87.96 Moyale 95.66 North Horr 94.86 86.14 114.19 104.59 Wajir County 98.15 85.44 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in October, as compared to the previous month of September. Tarbaj 105.88 94.25 North 126.02 105.96 South 82.11 73.15 90.45 77.93 Eldas 112.16 94.34 94.99 85.28 Samburu County 100.61 91.15 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 106.81 92.05 North 95.12 89.67 94.18 92.62 Garissa County 68.9 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of October. Balambala 105.85 92.98 Township 74.11 68.94 Ijara 55.87 60.93 58.76 Lagdera 107.14 94.11 Dadaab 77.02 67.11 Isiolo County 110.52 99.85 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 110.61 100.94 South 110.38 98.18 Tana River County 63.95 The countys vegetation greenness remained consistent at above-normal levels throughout the month of October. 90.19 78.44 Galole 63.04 Garsen 62.05 55.87 Kajiado County 108.42 105.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Central 98.91 102.19 114.06 112.58 North 82.11 87.09 South 98.51 93.81 114.72 Laikipia County 101.22 95.54 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 87.33 73.62 North 109.63 105.01 92.18 Tharaka Nithi County 92.63 81.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 98.29 Maara 81.81 Tharaka 92.58 77.56 West Pokot County 86.13 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kacheliba 83.67 Kapenguria 84.32 86.28 Pokot south 83.38 89.75 Sigor 85.55 89.02 County 105.34 96.83 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 78.08 76.45 Mbeere north 119.71 105.85 Mbeere south 109.59 100.23 Runyenjes 86.82 Kitui County 100.77 87.6 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kitui central 130.65 119.89 Kitui east 104.7 85.33 Kitui rural 147.82 133.74 Kitui south 85.76 75.76 Kitui west 134.14 121.84 Mwingi central 106.09 92.11 Mwingi north 103.58 88.02 Mwingi west 136.45 124.52 Makueni County 115.36 108.99 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, which was stable when compared to previous month of September. Kaiti 120.08 121.2 Kibwezi east 88.87 83.25 Kibwezi west 109.91 100.04 Kilome 124.63 120.73 Makueni 138.03 130.24 Mbooni 143.86 140.27 County 99.83 94.39 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of October. Buuri 100.5 Central Imenti 82.62 84.55 Igembe central 110.67 Igembe north 112.27 105.25 Igembe south 104.29 90.87 North Imenti 83.49 92.07 South Imenti 81.38 81.72 Tigania east 95.38 85.53 Tigania west 103.21 100.26 Nyeri County 85.64 83.73 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in October. Kieni 92.12 87.79 Mathira 82.94 83.94 Mukurweini 75.45 77.05 Nyeri town 75.96 78.48 Othaya 74.66 73.59 75.94 78.21 Kilifi County 37.71 33.58 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of October. Kilifi North, Magarini, Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Ganze 32.86 29.77 Kaloleni 43.36 39.58 Kilifi north 31.33 Kilifi south 42.56 40.13 Magarini 38.49 34.15 Malindi 40.92 33.93 Rabai 47.61 42.59 Kwale County 42.02 37.92 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in October which was stable when compared to last month. Several sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 40.31 35.33 Lunga Lunga 40.26 37.96 Matuga Msambweni 53.58 47.12 County 65.48 62.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of October. Lamu east 73.96 73.88 Lamu west 60.57 56.52 Taita Taveta County 81.15 71.11 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Mwatate 75.08 61.89 Taveta 96.52 88.48 74.33 64.42 Wundanyi 106.09 95.08 Narok County 82.96 80.61 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of October which was stable when compared to the last month of September. Emurua Dikirr 70.85 Kilgoris 64.19 66.43 Narok east 84.97 81.68 Narok north 70.83 64.41 Narok south 99.13 93.43 Narok west 82.96 83.76",
            "November_2024.pdf": "November 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of the ongoing October November December (OND) 2024 rainfall season. Two (2) counties including; Kilifi and Kwale were categorized in alert drought phase, hence need close monitoring. The July 2024 food security assessment and Long Rains Assessment (LRA) indicate that the number of people in need of assistance is projected to rise from 1.0 million in July to 1.8 million by December 2024. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of November 2024. Figure 1. November Drought Phase 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 November 2024 Rainfall Performance In November 2024, rainfall performance varied significantly across Kenyas regions. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), Wajir and Mandera experienced below-normal rainfall (5175 of normal), while Isiolo, Garissa, and Tana River received near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). The Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) saw mixed conditions, with Turkana recording above-normal rainfall (126200 of normal), while Samburu and Marsabit experienced near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). In the Coastal Marginal Cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta), Kilifi and Kwale had above-normal rainfall (126150 of normal), Lamu received near-normal rainfall (76125), and Taita Taveta faced below-normal rainfall (5175). The South Eastern Marginal Agriculture Cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) largely experienced near-normal rainfall (76125), except for Makueni and Kitui, which saw slightly above-normal rainfall (126150). Lastly, in the Agro Pastrol Cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall was above normal (176200) in Baringo and West Pokot, near normal (76125) in Narok and Laikipia, and near to slightly below normal (51125) in Kajiado and Nyeri. Overall, rainfall performance showed both deficits and surpluses across different clusters. 1.1.2 December 2024 Rainfall Outlook The December 2024 rainfall forecast shows varied conditions across Kenyas clusters. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), most areas, including Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, are expected to experience near-average to below- average rainfall, indicating dry conditions, while Tana River is forecasted to have near-average rainfall. In the Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit), Turkana and Figure 2. November Rainfall Performance Marsabit are predicted to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, signaling favorable conditions, whereas Samburu is expected to experience near-average rainfall. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta) is forecasted to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, indicating likely dry conditions across all counties. For the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui), rainfall is predicted to remain near average, suggesting stable conditions. Finally, in the Agro Pastoral cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok are expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall, while Laikipia, Kajiado, and Nyeri are forecasted to have near-average rainfall, reflecting favorable to moderate conditions overall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2024 with that of the previous month of October 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of November was at above normal vegetation greenness and normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September in most counties. Kilifi county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit. While Kwale county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Garissa counties also deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to last month. The month of November 2024 stability in vegetation condition in most Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) and slight deterioration in vegetation condition across few Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of October. Stability in vegetation is due to the impact of good performance OND rains which has regenerated pasture and browse in most counties. Slight deterioration in vegetation can be attributed to poor performance of OND rains in these counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Eighteen Figure 3. December Rainfall forecast (18) ASAL counties including; Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Three counties (3); Garissa, Taita Taveta and Tana River recorded normal vegetation greenness, while two counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of October and November 2024 October 2024 November 2024 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The short rains have positively impacted livestock conditions by improving water access and forage availability, stabilizing livestock body conditions. Overall, forage quality was generally fair to good across the counties during the review period, although some areas experienced Table 2.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Moderate vegetation deficit Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Taita Taveta, Tana River Garissa (Fafi, Township, Daadab), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kitui (South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (West), Taita (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir (South, West) Above normal Vegetation greenness Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, West, North), Lamu (East), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera, Ijara). deterioration. About 73 and 17 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Kilifi and Kwale reported poor conditions. Receipt of the off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally, but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2024 Pasture Browse Kilifi Kwale Baringo Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Samburu Taita Taveta Tana river Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kitui Makueni Isiolo Samburu Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Baringo Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable, ranging from fair to good (Table 3). This stability was primarily attributed to the availability of quality, palatable forage in adequate quantities within the usual grazing zones near households, combined with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources due to the good recharge of open water structures in the previous season. However, the delayed onset of the October November December(OND) rains in most counties poses a risk to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, November 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana West Pokot Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana West Pokot 1.3.3. Livestock diseases Various counties have reported livestock disease as follows; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in the southern parts of Garissa, Tana River, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty), Laikipia (Tigithi in Laikipia East Sub County, Salama in Laikipia West Sub County, and Thigithu in Laikipia East Sub County) and West Pokot (Kapchok and Chepareria wards). Increased incidences of helminthiasis and ectoparasites such as ticks were reported in Garissa with the prevalence of abortions being high in Turkana County. Some areas like Balambala, Mwingi West and Kitui West sub counties witnessed high cases of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) throughout the subject month under review. Equally, African Swine Fever cases were confirmed in Kitui Central while worm infestation especially among the small stock was high in Baringo. Regular monitoring and vaccination campaigns shall remain key towards mitigating any disease outbreaks. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Generally the price of cattle was stable and good across most counties which is attributed to the stable livestock body condition occasioned by pasture and water availability. (Table 5). Notably, the prevailing price of cattle was above the respective long-term average in all the counties during the period under review. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Meru Narok,Makueni Taita Taveta West pokot,Nyeri Samburu,Marsabit,Kitui Baringo Wajir Mandera, Nyeri , Kwale Tana River, Kilifi Turkana, Tharaka Nithi 1.3.5 Goat Prices Stability with a tendency to improve in the market price of goats was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Turkana and Wajir counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over November. Unbalanced demand and supply in the market was the major driver of the aforementioned negative trend. Overall, all the counties reported prices that were above the normal price for the period. The good body condition driven by browse availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Kilifi Tana River, Kitui Kajiado, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Turkana Wajir 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Taita Taveta Planted crops were at below knee-high (growth stage) with select few farmers engaged in weeding. In the mixed farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale Majority of the farmers were involved in land preparation and planting. Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops especially maize were at different stages of germination, knee and above Knee height. Legumes had germinated and were in fair condition while maize crops were at a different growth stage: still germinating in most areas but already reaching knee-high in Tigania East for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crops are in fair to good condition supported by enhanced rainfall received in the county during the month under review. Farmers were mainly focused on weeding to support crop growth. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, driven by expectations of the October-November-December (OND) rains, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at leaf stage while others were at germination stage, all performing well across the livelihood zones. Households recorded zero stocks, having depleted all maize stocks held and were thus relying on markets for purchases. Makueni Crops had germinated in most parts of the county and were in fair condition. 20 Spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution was hindering farming activities especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones. Crops had germinated and were below knee high. Farmers were weeding and spraying to control pests but the crops were in good condition. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Maize crop was one and a half feet high while beans had started flowering. Crop conditions ranged from fair in Agro-pastoral areas to good in the mixed farming south. Most farmers were weeding. Normally, beans would be flowering and maize would be three feet tall. Narok A few of the farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were planting with those who planted early engaged in weeding. Laikipia In Laikipia East, crops were at the leafing stage with farmers carrying out the first round of weeding. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were concluding harvesting maize. The projected maize yield for the season is above average due to improved farming practices such as better soil management and the use of quality seeds, as well as favourable weather conditions that supported optimal crop growth. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for about 21 percent of the areas including Narok, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi among others that reported price increase attributable to dwindling household stocks and increased demand as the festive season approaches over the reference period (Table 8). Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Lamu reported prices that were within the usual price range in November. Observed trend over the month under review was due to the combined effect of local production more so in the marginal agriculture and Agro pastoral areas and external supplies including cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Wajir Marsabit Turkana Kilifi Baringo, Isiolo, Nyeri Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Kwale West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu, Meru Tana River, Turkana, Laikipia Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 78 percent of the counties is currently within the corresponding long-term average distance for the period compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source averages 5.4 kilometres with Mandera and Wajir recording the highest distance of 8.5 kilometres. On the other hand, distance in the semi-arid counties averages 3.3 kilometres with Lamu reporting the highest distance of 5.9 kilometres. Over the month under review, approximately 87 percent of the counties reported an improving trend following the rainfall received during the second and third dekad of November. However, the negative trend witnessed in some counties like Kilifi, West Pokot and Kwale could be attributed to the poor recharge and the fact that provisioned water sources were turbid for household consumption. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Garissa Wajir Kwale Samburu Turkana Kitui Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Embu Tana River Kajiado, Kilifi Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Laikipia Nyeri Baringo Kilifi Kwale West Pokot Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The current trekking distance to water source from grazing area is stable and increased in 21 percent of the counties hence a significant improvement from the previous month (Table 10). The aforementioned counties that reported a worsening trend included: Kilifi, Mandera, Kwale and West Pokot with poor rainfall amounts, reduced forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources and water infrastructure deficiencies being cited as the major drivers of the observed situation. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties averaged 9 kilometres with Mandera reporting the longest distance of 13.4 kilometres. In the semi-arid counties, the distance averaged 4 kilometres with Lamu reporting the longest distance of 6.8 kilometres. Save for Kwale, Narok and West Pokot counties, the prevailing distance in all the other counties was within the usual seasonal range as a consequence of the recharge that took place compounded by the forage regeneration. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Kwale Narok West Pokot Turkana Kilifi Nyeri Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Lamu, Makueni Meru, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Lamu, Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Makueni Narok Mandera Wajir Kilifi Kwale West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Over the reference period under review, all counties reported terms of trade that were above the corresponding long-term average and that represented a similar scenario to the previous month. The observed trend was as a consequence of the relatively low maize prices over time that fairly matched the high prices of goat and therefore the purchasing power remained moderate especially in the pastoral set ups. However, compared to the previous period, deterioration in the terms of trade was noted in roughly 52 percent of the counties while 48 percent of the areas reported stability. The marginal shift in the price of maize across November was the major driver of the observed negative trend in the aforementioned counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia, Makueni, Lamu Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Nyeri Tana River Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Kwale West Pokot Isiolo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Turkana, Wajir Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia, Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in about 52 percent of the counties as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category (Table 12). The remaining counties reported a stable trend. The worsening trend in the prior mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 39 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was worser compared to the usual situation at such a time of the year and that could be attributed to the limited number of outreach activities delivering essential nutrition services coupled with the high morbidity rates. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa Turkana Kitui Makueni West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Narok West Pokot Baringo Marsabit Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Samburu Tana River, Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, twenty-one (21) ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while two Counties including Kilifi and Kwale are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, November 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Isiolo, Turkana, Embu, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Samburu Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Marsabit, Wajir, Kajiado, Makueni, Alert Kwale Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex 1 Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th November 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month as VCI-3 month as Colour values Drought Category at 27th October at 24th Novemb er 2024 (3-month) Vegetation greenness above normal Normal vegetation greenness Moderate vegetation deficit Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 93.74 80.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Central 92.21 85.99 North 89.41 73.05 South 93.24 80.94 Ravine 84.32 Mogotio 95.35 86.09 Tiaty 97.56 79.42 MANDERA County 101.53 73.35 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of October at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 108.08 78.45 North 107.51 81.83 Banissa 78.92 61.46 101.33 67.68 South 104.61 74.52 99.36 68.37 TURKANA County 87.61 76.24 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 85.43 66.91 South 94.88 77.79 Loima 95.94 87.86 Central 99.51 83.62 88.11 84.13 North 77.91 67.02 MARSABI County 86.53 62.81 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November which was stable when compared to the previous month of October. Laisamis 87.96 64.18 Moyale 52.62 North Horr 86.14 64.05 104.59 73.41 WAJIR County 85.44 57.03 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in November. However two sub counties Wajir (South and West) recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Tarbaj 94.25 66.43 North 105.96 71.16 South 73.15 49.67 77.93 45.49 Eldas 94.34 58.79 85.28 62.69 SAMBURU County 91.15 68.73 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 92.05 62.11 North 89.67 72.95 92.62 81.28 GARISSA County 49.91 The county and its two sub counties (Fafi and Dadaab) deteriorated to Normal Vegetation greenness in the month of November. Balambala 92.98 59.34 Township 68.94 45.98 Ijara 51.44 58.76 44.99 Lagdera 94.11 58.51 Dadaab 67.11 45.88 ISIOLO County 99.85 63.38 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. North 100.94 63.48 South 98.18 63.22 RIVER County 63.95 42.54 The county and all its sub counties declined to Normal vegetation greenness levels throughout the month of November. 78.44 49.78 Galole 37.58 Garsen 55.87 39.49 KAJIADO County 105.68 84.97 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 102.19 87.05 112.58 87.42 North 87.09 89.27 South 93.81 70.79 114.72 94.15 LAIKIPIA County 95.54 76.8 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 73.62 57.53 North 105.01 81.18 THARAKA NITHI County 81.41 56.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 73.32 Maara 81.81 72.63 Tharaka 77.56 44.63 POKOT County 86.13 81.14 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness as normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Kacheliba 79.23 Kapenguria 86.28 82.57 Pokot south 89.75 91.62 Sigor 89.02 77.19 County 96.83 74.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 76.45 79.62 Mbeere north 105.85 70.63 Mbeere south 100.23 Runyenjes 86.82 83.65 KITUI County 55.99 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of November, however Kitui south declined to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui central 119.89 79.31 Kitui east 85.33 52.36 Kitui rural 133.74 87.03 Kitui south 75.76 49.06 Kitui west 121.84 79.32 Mwingi central 92.11 56.64 Mwingi north 88.02 56.93 Mwingi west 124.52 83.53 MAKUENI County 108.99 80.06 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was stable when compared to previous month of October. Kaiti 121.2 101.13 Kibwezi east 83.25 57.81 Kibwezi west 100.04 Kilome 120.73 92.78 Makueni 130.24 94.42 Mbooni 140.27 105.84 County 94.39 73.16 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of November. Buuri 84.88 Central Imenti 84.55 76.62 Igembe central 66.65 Igembe north 105.25 Igembe south 90.87 60.05 North Imenti 92.07 81.82 South Imenti 81.72 81.47 Tigania east 85.53 65.03 Tigania west 100.26 74.09 NYERI County 83.73 81.42 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in November. Kieni 87.79 81.61 Mathira 83.94 Mukurweini 77.05 74.28 Nyeri town 78.48 Othaya 73.59 80.09 78.21 KILIFI County 33.58 26.44 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of October. Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Magarini, Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining two sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 29.77 Kaloleni 39.58 32.43 Kilifi north 31.33 33.97 Kilifi south 40.13 35.95 Magarini 34.15 25.67 Malindi 33.93 30.33 Rabai 42.59 35.48 KWALE County 37.92 31.04 The vegetation condition index recorded was moderate vegetation deficit in November which was a decline when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 35.33 26.09 Lunga Lunga 37.96 31.73 Matuga 47.69 Msambweni 47.12 43.97 County 62.88 57.06 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of November. Lamu east 73.88 71.04 Lamu west 56.52 48.98 TAITA TAVETA County 71.11 49.56 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Voi) recorded Normal vegetation greenness which Mwatate 61.89 40.75 Taveta 88.48 64.03 64.42 44.27 Wundanyi 95.08 70.12 is a decline compared with the previous month of October. NAROK County 80.61 76.98 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November which was stable when compared to the last month of October. Emurua Dikirr 70.85 73.95 Kilgoris 66.43 70.22 Narok east 81.68 75.42 Narok north 64.41 65.14 Narok south 93.43 83.45 Narok west 83.76 83.76",
            "December_2024.pdf": "December 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained normal across majority of the ASAL counties. The stable trend was attributed to the light showers experienced in December that aided in sustaining the impact of the good rainfall received in November. Three (3) counties, Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi were in Alert drought phase while the remaining twenty (20) ASAL counties were in Normal drought phase (Figure 1). Four (4) counties including Tana River, Embu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi were classified to be at Normal and on an improving trend, ten (10) counties including Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri at Normal and on a stable trend while six (6) counties including Baringo, Marsabit, Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, West Pokot at Normal and on a worsening trend. The classification was based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual seasonal ranges except for the counties at Alert drought phase. The trend of food insecurity among populations has been on the rise since July 2024. The Current number of food insecure population is approximately 1.8 persons in ASAL counties. The Counties of Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera have the highest proportions of food insecure populations. Despite the improvements from the previous season, levels of acute malnutrition have still remained elevated in some arid counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo (Tiaty) and Turkana. The total caseload for children aged 6-59 months as well as pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of urgent treatment is estimated at 479,498 and 110, 169 respectively. Figure 1. December Drought Phase 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 December 2024 Rainfall Performance Throughout December 2024, rainfall performance across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties displayed significant spatial variation, with notable disparities between clusters. The Pastoral North East (PNE) cluster, encompassing Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River, experienced predominantly below-average rainfall, with large areas receiving less than 50 percent of the long-term mean (LTM), and isolated zones falling below 25 percent. In contrast, the pastoral north west (PNW) cluster, which includes Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit, also faced deficits, with most areas recording amounts below 50 percent of LTM, particularly in Turkana and Marsabit. The coastal marginal agriculture (CMA) cluster, comprising Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta, generally experienced average to above- average rainfall, with coastal regions such as Kilifi and Kwale receiving 101200 percent of the LTM. The south eastern marginal agriculture (SEMA) cluster, which includes Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui, recorded mixed performance, with southern parts receiving slightly above-average rainfall (76125 percent of LTM) while northern areas received below average rainfall. Lastly, the Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster, that consistutes Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri, demonstrated heterogeneous rainfall distribution, with Narok and Kajiado receiving above-average rainfall (101200 percent of LTM), while Baringo and Laikipia experienced deficits, with some areas falling below 50 percent of the LTM. 1.1.2 January 2025 Rainfall Outlook The rainfall forecast for January 2025 across the ASAL counties indicates predominantly dry conditions with significant spatial variation among the clusters. The PNE cluster is expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions, consistent with climatological norms, with little to Figure 2. December Rainfall Performance (source: KMD) no rainfall anticipated. Similarly, the PNW cluster is also forecasted to have predominantly dry conditions under the same climatological patterns. The CMA cluster is forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall, particularly in coastal areas where isolated showers might occur. Sunny and dry conditions are forecasted for the SEMA cluster, with sporadic rainfall possible in some locations.Lastly, the AGP cluster is anticipated to follow a similar pattern of mainly dry conditions with occasional rainfall particularly in the southern and western areas such as Narok and Kajiado. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2024 with that of the previous month of November 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of December was above normal vegetation greenness compared to that of the month of November in most counties, however with a deteriorating trend. Kilifi and Kwale counties maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness. Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Tharaka Nithi counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to November. The month of December 2024 showed huge deterioration in vegetation condition in most Arid Counties. Deterioration in vegetation was due to the impact of poor performance of OND rains which did not have a positive improvement in terms of vegetation regeneration. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Fourteen (14) ASAL counties including; Turkana, Samburu, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Tana River and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Six counties (6); Marsabit, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Mandera and Taita Taveta recorded normal vegetation greenness, while three counties (3); Kilifi, Kwale and Wajir recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties at end of December 2024 is provided in figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Figure 3. January Rainfall forecast (Source: KMD) Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of November and December 2024 Table1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe vegetation deficit Wajir (West) Moderate vegetation deficit Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Isiolo (North), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, South, Rabai), Wajir (Eldas, South), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal vegetation greenness Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Isiolo (South), Kilifi (North, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Mandera (West, South, East, Banissa), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Tarbaj, North, East) November 2024 December 2024 Above normal Vegetation greenness Turkana, Samburu, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Tana River and Nyeri Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Balambala, Township, Ijara, Fafi, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, West, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Mandera (Lafey, North), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu:( East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deterioration being noted across majority of them. About 65 and 43 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Mandera reported the condition as being poor. Forage availability was sustained in December as a consequence of the light showers received coupled with the cumulative effect of the good rainfall received in November. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Table 2.0: Forage Condition, December 2024 Pasture Browse Mandera Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Makueni Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot Laikipia Lamu, Narok Nyeri, Kwale Taita Taveta Tana river Mandera Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Meru Makueni Marsabit Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Wajir Baringo, Embu Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Lamu, Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Tana River West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained relatively stable in relation to the previous month of November ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed trend included: forage and water availability in sites adjacent to households across most counties. Additionally, availability of crop residues sufficed in supplementing the livestock feed. Improved provision of livestock health services such as vaccination by different stakeholders equally aided in promoting the stable livestock body condition observed. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, December 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Garissa, Lamu Kitui, Wajir Makueni Mandera Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Marsabit, Meru Narok, Nyeri Samburu, Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Garissa Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Kitui Tana River, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Embu, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Samburu Turkana West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Poultry farmers in Tharaka Nithi and Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango subcounty) faced isolated cases of Newcastle disease. Persistent cases of endemic East Coast Fever (ECF) were recorded in Narok. The dominant syndrome reported in Marsabit was Respiratory at 26.9 percent, Gastrointestinal at 20.4 percent, and Abortion at 13.6 percent. Equally, incidents of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) were widespread in Marsabit especially around Butiye, Golbo, KorrNgurunit, Laisamis, North Horr, Sololo, Turbi, HeilluManyatta and Moyale Township and Garissa (Balambala sub county). Foot rot associated with the cold conditions in December was recorded in Embu. Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Kajiado, Meru (Amwathi in Igembe North), Samburu, West Pokot (Chepareria ward), Tana River and southern parts of Garissa. Rabies and goat pox presented the highest prevalence of 50.1 and 42.9 percent and mortality rate of 24 and 14.3 percent respectively in Turkana. An unknown disease-causing paralysis and death in lambs and kids was reported in Masol and Lomut wards while 36,302 cattle were vaccinated against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 78 percent reported an improving trend in the price of cattle in relation to the previous month with only Mandera, Wajir and Tharaka Nithi reporting a negative trend (Table 5). The decline in price in the aforementioned counties was occasioned by distress stress hence over supply driven by the poor performance of the short rains and drop in demand for cattle with a high preference for camels in December. Notably, the improving trend in the other areas was driven by the good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists fetch more. Noteworthy, the recorded prices across all the counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity at the markets due to hoarding and low volumes in some areas, and high demand for cattle meat during the festive season being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Lamu Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Narok West Pokot, Meru Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Samburu Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kajiado Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu Laikipia, Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Mandera and Wajir that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to deteriorating body condition, majority of the counties constituting 91 percent reported a stable to improving trend across December (Table 6). The positive trend in these counties was influenced by the high demand over the festive season and browse availability following the rainfall received hence good body condition. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the usual prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition of goat following the rainfall received that promoted availability of quality palatable browse in majority of the areas. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Samburu Tana River Turkana, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Meru Laikipia Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi, Embu Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Mandera Wajir 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Taita Taveta Crops were above knee-high and others at knee high stage in the Mixed Farming: Food Crop Livestock and Horticulture Dairy livelihood zones. Maize crop was at tasselling stage in the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone. Kilifi Early planted maize in parts of the Marginal Mixed zone was at knee- high and in good condition. In addition. cassava crop was in good condition. However, most farms remained bushy as farmers were reluctant to prepare and plant following the forecasted poor rainfall season. Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops were at different stages including germination, knee high to and above Knee high. Kwale The major activities carried out by majority of the farmers were weeding and harvesting of some of the early planted crops. Legumes were at growth stages ranging from tussling to podding, with their condition being poor to fair. Cereal crops were at varying stages of development: knee-high in the lower zones of Tigania East, Tigania West, Igembe North, Igembe Central, and parts of Buuri, while in the upper zones of Tigania East and Tigania West, crops are flowering for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crop conditions were rated as poor to fair, largely due to below-average OND rainfall and with the current rainfall outlook, below-average harvest is expected. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at weeding stage while others were at leaf development stage. The condition of the crops was fair across the livelihood zones having faced water stress during the second week of December apart from Kitui Central, Kitui West and Kitui Rural Sub- counties, that by then continued receiving light showers (10 mm). Makueni Crops were at knee high and flowering stage and in fair condition. Farmers were mainly engaged in weeding activities to support crop growth. However, presence of fall army worm, spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution were among the factors hindering crop production across December. Maize in the mixed farming zone was at tussling stage while in the marginal mixed farming zone it was at the second weeding stage with the condition being fair. Beans, green grams and cowpeas were all at the podding stage across both livelihood zones. The condition of legumes was equally fair. Agro- pastoral Kajiado Crop development was behind schedule. Beans were blooming while maize were 8-10 leaves compared to podding and tussling in that sequence normally. Delayed rainfall onset affected the planting period but generally the condition was good. Narok Rain-fed crops were in good condition and likely to retain their state up to maturity owing to the extremely high soil moisture during the month under review. Nyeri Maize was at knee high and beans were at flowering stage. The main on-farm activity taking place in December was first weeding. Pokot In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, maize crop was above knee high and in fair to poor condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Increase in the price of maize was observed in estimated 61 percent of the counties while the price remained unchanged in about 30 percent of the areas (Table 8). The reported price increase was as a result of the dwindling household stocks hence increased demand (market over reliance) more so over the festive season, limited relief food distribution by humanitarian agencies and increased cost of transportation from the external source areas. However, the prevailing price over December was below the respective long-term average price for majority of the counties and that could be attributed to the previous good harvests and market injections through cross border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, December 2024 Current status Trend Above Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- Garissa Mandera Marsabit Wajir Turkana Kilifi Kwale Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana River Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Makueni, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Mandera Wajir Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Baringo, Marsabit Samburu, Embu Tana River, Kwale Turkana, Kitui Makueni, Meru Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, a stable to improving trend in trekking distance for households was noted in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 9). The decrease in trekking distance could be ascribed to improved water availability through recharge of open water sources that were in close proximity to households across December. On the other hand, increase in distance in some counties like Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera and Wajir could be attributed to the high evaporation rate that resulted to drying up of some sources and depletion of harvested water due to early cessation of the short rains. Notably, the longest distance of 9.3 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Wajir respectively among the Arid counties while Lamu and Kitui reported the longest distance of 5.6 and 4.5 kilometres accordingly among the semi-arid counties. Save for Wajir, Kitui, Nyeri and Tana River, the reported trekking distance across all the counties was below the respective long-term average. Lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by recharge of water facilities especially in December. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Wajir Kitui Nyeri Tana River Mandera, Kwale Turkana, Embu Kilifi, Laikipia Narok, Makueni Garissa, Isiolo Samburu, Lamu Baringo, Kajiado, Meru Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Marsabit Samburu, Kilifi Kwale, Lamu Makueni, Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Turkana, Kitui Laikipia West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Mandera Narok Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance to water source from grazing areas declined in about 48 percent of the counties over the subject reference period under analysis with stability being noted in 22 percent of the areas (Table 10). Decrease in trekking distance in the aforementioned areas could be attributed to forage regeneration and improved water availability following the recharge that took place. However, the negative trend in some counties was as a consequence of movement of livestock from sites near farmlands as crops matured and dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources. The longest return trekking distance of 16.4 kilometres was reported in Marsabit among the arid counties with Lamu equally recording the longest distance of 5.1 kilometres among the semi-arid counties. In reference to the usual trekking distance for the month of December, only Mandera and Kwale reported a distance that was outside the normal range. Recharge of water facilities over December period was the major factor that influenced the lower than usual trekking distance across the month under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Mandera Kwale Samburu, Embu Makueni, Narok West- Pokot Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River Wajir, Kitui Laikipia Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Turkana Kajiado, Kilifi Lamu, Taita Taveta Meru, Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Lamu Turkana Tana River, Kwale, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Samburu Kitui Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Wajir, Embu Laikipia 1.6 Terms of trade Approximately 57 percent of the counties recorded stability in the terms of trade attributable to minimal shifts in the price of goat relative to the previous month (Table 11). Decline in terms of trade noted in some areas could be ascribed to the increase in price of maize witnessed over the subject month under review. The lowest terms of trade of 39.5 and 97 was reported in Turkana and Nyeri among the arid and semi-arid counties respectively and thus pastoral households in these counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavorable terms of trade implying low purchasing power. Generally, the terms of trade recorded over the month under review were above the long- term average in all the counties. The observed scenario could be attributed to the maize prices that remained moderate and within the seasonal range coupled with the slightly elevated goat prices driven by the good body condition. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Tana River Turkana Kilifi Kitui Narok Baringo, Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Embu, West Pokot Kwale, Makueni Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation remained stable in roughly 65 percent of the counties (Table 12). Notable factors cited for the observed trend included: good terms of trade that translated to improved access to diverse foods via the market and availability of milk, green vegetables and fruits at household level out of own production. The nutrition situation was however on a worsening trend in select counties such as Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit ascribed to inadequate and unbalanced food intake due to high poverty rates, and high disease prevalence. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the seasonal ranges in approximately 78 percent of the counties with the only exceptions being Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Mandera and Turkana. The positive situation could be attributed to availability of milk, expanded mass screening and medical outreaches. On the contrary, poor feeding and child care practices was driving the negative situation in the prior mentioned counties. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2024 Current status Trend Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Mandera Turkana Kajiado Tharaka- Nithi Garissa, Marsabit Kitui West Pokot Isiolo, Samburu Tana River Wajir, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Makueni Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Kwale Laikipia Makueni Garissa, Isiolo Turkana, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Baringo, Wajir Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Embu Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 20 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while three Counties including Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2024 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Tana River, Embu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Baringo, Marsabit Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, West Pokot Alert Kilifi Mandera, Wajir Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th December 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS County Sub County VCI-3 month as at November VCI-3 month as at December Colour values (3-month) Drought Category Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greennes 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 80.31 71.25 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in December. Central 85.99 75.59 North 73.05 66.28 South 80.94 Ravine 84.32 77.22 Mogotio 86.09 79.88 Tiaty 79.42 68.31 Mandera County 73.35 The county and majority of its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Lafey 78.45 North 81.83 54.32 December. Lafey and Mandera North remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 61.46 46.52 67.68 42.69 South 74.52 47.81 68.37 39.55 Turkana County 76.24 72.66 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 66.91 57.61 South 77.79 72.09 Loima 87.86 83.02 Central 83.62 74.92 84.13 84.59 North 67.02 Marsabit County 62.81 48.04 The county declined to normal vegetation greenness in December which is low when compared to previous month of November. Laisamis 64.18 Moyale 52.62 41.89 North Horr 64.05 73.41 48.27 Wajir County 57.03 34.15 The county declined at moderate vegetation deficit in December. However, two sub counties Wajir (North and East) and Tarbaj recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Wajir West recorded the worst at severe vegetation deficit. Tarbaj 66.43 37.97 North 71.16 48.02 South 49.67 33.56 45.49 Eldas 58.79 62.69 38.55 Samburu County 68.73 62.26 The County maintained stability with vegetation greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. 62.11 55.64 North 72.95 66.42 81.28 75.02 Garissa County 49.91 49.31 The county and its two sub counties (Lagdera and Dadaab) recorded Normal Vegetation greenness in the month of December. Balambala 59.34 54.24 Township 45.98 53.41 Ijara 51.44 54.77 44.99 52.25 Lagdera 58.51 42.34 Dadaab 45.88 39.29 Isiolo County 63.38 38.14 The County declined to normal vegetation greenness levels. While Isiolo North declined to moderate vegetation deficit. North 63.48 31.86 South 63.22 47.74 Tana River County 42.54 51.49 The county and all its sub counties improved to above normal vegetation greenness levels throughout the month of December. Bura recorded normal vegetation greenness. 49.78 Galole 37.58 56.42 Garsen 39.49 50.11 Kajiado County 84.97 76.12 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Central 87.05 79.55 87.42 North 89.27 82.96 South 70.79 94.15 82.53 Laikipia County 66.08 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 57.53 North 81.18 66.57 69.17 Tharaka Nithi County 56.27 45.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. Chuka 73.32 56.94 Maara 72.63 62.07 Tharaka 44.63 35.59 West Pokot County 81.14 74.01 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in above normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Kacheliba 79.23 71.94 Kapenguria 82.57 76.57 Pokot south 91.62 83.68 Sigor 77.19 County 74.65 60.33 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Manyatta 79.62 65.66 Mbeere north 70.63 56.98 Mbeere south 60.12 Runyenjes 83.65 62.67 Kitui County 55.99 57.28 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Kitui central 79.31 60.73 Kitui east 52.36 57.06 Kitui rural 87.03 61.94 Kitui south 49.06 56.82 Kitui west 79.32 62.27 Mwingi central 56.64 56.99 Mwingi north 56.93 53.76 Mwingi west 83.53 68.94 Makueni County 80.06 66.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in December, which was stable when compared to previous month of November. Kaiti 101.13 82.67 Kibwezi east 57.81 52.19 Kibwezi west Kilome 92.78 70.12 Makueni 94.42 75.63 Mbooni 105.84 80.59 County 73.16 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of December. Buuri 84.88 67.24 Central Imenti 76.62 60.48 Igembe central 66.65 Igembe north 53.07 Igembe south 60.05 55.64 North Imenti 81.82 53.71 South Imenti 81.47 70.92 Tigania east 65.03 54.65 Tigania west 74.09 54.25 Nyeri County 81.42 72.29 The county remained stable recording above normal vegetation greenness in December. Kieni 81.61 71.28 Mathira 77.39 Mukurweini 74.28 70.13 Nyeri town 65.01 Othaya 80.09 74.14 Kilifi County 26.44 34.57 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in the month of December. Kaloleni, Ganze and Kilifi south, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while Kilifi North, Magarini and Malindi sub counties recorded an improvement to normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 27.52 Kaloleni 32.43 31.03 Kilifi north 33.97 40.67 Kilifi south 35.95 25.89 Magarini 25.67 37.63 Malindi 30.33 40.27 Rabai 35.48 22.89 Kwale County 31.04 The vegetation condition index recorded was moderate vegetation deficit in December which was a stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga sub counties recorded moderate vegetation greenness while Msabweni and Matuga recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kinango 26.09 28.16 Lunga Lunga 31.73 31.45 Matuga 47.69 42.98 Msambweni 43.97 42.22 County 57.06 54.59 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. Lamu east 71.04 60.42 Lamu west 48.98 51.22 Taita Taveta County 49.56 44.44 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Voi) remained in Normal vegetation greenness compared with the previous month of November. Mwatate 40.75 37.86 Taveta 64.03 52.51 44.27 41.22 Wundanyi 70.12 Narok County 76.98 79.01 The County remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of December which was stable when compared to the last month of November. Emurua Dikirr 73.95 Kilgoris 70.22 71.36 Narok east 75.42 77.17 Narok north 65.14 69.89 Narok south 83.45 83.59 Narok west 83.76 83.58"
        }
    },
    "Baringo Long Rains": {
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2017.pdf": "A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group July 2017 1 Evelyn Wangari Nganga (National Drought Management Authority) and Peter Mndanyi (World Vision) Executive Summary The county is classified in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping ones are in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2). There was a reduction in the food frequency, nutritive value and dietary diversity as evidenced by the reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet from 90.7 percent in May 2016 to 59.8 percent in May 2017 Food Security Outcome Monitoring. The reduced food consumption gaps was also manifested in the increase in the frequency and severity of consumption-based coping strategies as evidenced by the increase in the coping strategy index from 12.9 in May 2016 to 18.6 in May 2017. The nutritional status had deteriorated as the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased from 18 percent in January 2017 to 25 percent in June 2017. Food availability at household level was below normal across all livelihood zones. Only the households in the mixed farming livelihood zone had stocks available with the rest currently relying on markets for food. Livestock production was also below average as livestock stayed away from homesteads in search of pasture reducing milk availability. Additionally, even the remaining livestock could not fetch competitive prices due to weakened body condition. Access to food was a challenge for most households in the county as prices of maize, a staple in the county maintained an above-average trend attributed to acute unavailability of the commodity due to low supply. Reduced income from livestock production had limited access to food for 88 and 50 percent of the households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zone who rely on it as a main source of income. The countys food insecurity was largely owed to the poor performance of the long rains season, high food commodity prices, the fall army worm infestation and insecurity within the county and along borders with neighbouring counties of Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties and along migratory routes. With most of the county having received 50-75 percent of normal rainfall punctuated with a late onset and poor temporal distribution, crop and livestock production were significantly affected negatively. The crop production was further affected by the fall army worm out-break that will significantly reduce the projected yields. Insecurity along the borders with neighbouring counties prevented access to pasture in these areas. Table of contents 3.1.1. Crop production ........................................................................................................ 6 3.1.2 Livestock production ................................................................................................. 8 3.2.1 Markets .................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................ 13 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ................................................................ 14 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition ................................................................................................ 16 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................ 17 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................. 21 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................... 21 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking.................................................................................................. 22 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 22 5.3.1 Food interventions ................................................................................................... 26 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 27 Pastoral-all species Mixed farming Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County is situated in the North- Western part of the country and borders Uasin Gishu County to the south-west, Kericho and Nakuru Counties to the south, Laikipia County to the east, West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties to the west and Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north. The county spans an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers, 165 square kilometres of which is covered by lakes Bogoria, Kamnarok, 94 and Baringo. It has a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). Administratively, it is divided in to six sub-counties namely: Marigat, East Pokot, Baringo North, Koibatek and Mogotio. It comprises four livelihood zones (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach Objectives The assessments main objective was to analyze the impact of the 2017 long rains on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative impacts of the past three seasons and including other shocks and hazards. Specifically, it sought to determine the impact of the season on food utilization, access and availability by considering the contributing factors to food insecurity and food security outcomes. It also explored the impact of the season on the main food security-related sectors including agriculture, livestock, education and water. Other sectors included health, nutrition, markets and trade from which information would be used to inform sectoral response mechanisms. Finally the assessment report outlined the on- going interventions and also provides interventions that should be put in place immediately, at medium- and long-term. Approach All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires from 270 households in 9 sentinel sites, one-on-one interviews from key informants, transect drive and observation. Secondary data on livestock and food commodity prices, nutrition data from SMART-survey was also corroborated and vegetation condition. The assessment was conducted from 10th July 2017 to 14th July 2017 which involved the technical county steering group members. The data was analyzed at both livelihood zone and sub-county level and a sectoral county report was generated before endorsement and validation by the county steering group. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late in the third dekad of March compared to the first dekad normally. Most parts of the county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral and upper parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone received below-normal rainfall of between 50-75 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, the lower part of the mixed farming livelihood zone around Eldama Ravine and some parts of Mogotio received between 75-90 percent of normal rainfall. The spatial distribution was fairly even. However, the temporal distribution was poor as rainy days were punctuated by dry spells across the season. The cessation was in the second dekad of June although off-season showers being experienced in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border of the county with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Fall army worm infestation A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and is likely to significantly reduce the maize production since 12,000 hectares were affected. Given that the long rains season is the most relied upon for crop production accounting for over 80 percent of total annual production, the deficit will result in significant food consumption gaps. 2.3 Poor terms of trade Livestock prices were below-average amid high food commodity prices. Households purchasing power had therefore been eroded particularly because most households were currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral, pastoral-all species and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food availability in Baringo County takes into account crop production in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro-pastoral livelihood zones and livestock production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. It considers food stocks available at both market and household levels in crop production while in livestock production, livestock body condition, forage and milk availability are considered. 3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The long rains season is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage for maize and beans reduced by 13.2 and 12.8 percent of their long-term average while that of finger millet increased by 22.5 percent as shown in table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because of the delayed onset. There was a dry spell that followed after the onset of the rains that made the first-planted seeds to dry up. Most farmers did not replant after that. The acreage of finger millet increased because the farmers were provided with farm inputs by the national government and the county government conducted enhanced campaigns for drought-tolerant crops. Maize and beans projected production reduced by 46.2 and 17.1 percent of their long-term averages. Maize production reduced due to delayed and subdued rains coupled with a fall army worm infestation. Beans production reduced due to the fact that most beans aborted their flowers during the dry period between 20th May and 18th June when beans were between the flowering and podding stages. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during rains season (Ha) 2017Long rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 35,432 40,799 430,388 800,650 2. Beans 20,681 23,729 221,000 266,458 3. Finger millet 5,816 4,747 35,890 37,716 Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, beans, tomatoes and water melons reduced by 32.5, 12.8, 27.4 and 20.8 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the reduction included low water volumes in the major rivers in the county including Perkerra, Molo, Endao and Waseges due to low recharge from the rains. Additionally, in Baringo North, the acreage under irrigated maize was reduced as most farmers opted for cowpea and banana production due to higher returns particularly in Kiboi and Barwesa irrigation schemes. Other reasons included destruction of the irrigation infrastructure in Cheraik and Chepness irrigation schemes in Eldama Ravine sub-county. The reduced acreage resulted in the decreased of all four crops by 58.1, 52.2, 24.6 and 62.2 percent of their normal production respectively. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Area planted during the 2017 Long rains season (ha) Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2017 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2017 Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 24,179 57,739 Beans 1,215 2,540 Tomatoes Water melons 1,310 3,470 Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks are above-average except for maize (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 54 percent of their LTA, while rice, millet and sorghum stocks were 12.8, 67 and 18.7 percent above their LTAs respectively. There had been a deficit in maize production from previous seasons and imports, so the other cereals were increased in a bid to respond to the deficit. Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers Total Maize Current 80,190 28,540 113,955 158,003 43,359 210,894 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Current 2,190 2,190 1,942 1,942 Millet Current 5,033 3,008 Sorghum Current Farmers held only half (50.7) of their normal maize stocks as most sold their produce to purchase farm inputs. Moreover, over 85 percent of the stocks held were in the mixed farming livelihood while households in the rest of the livelihood zones were relying on markets. However, stocks of millet and sorghum were 81 and 32 percent respectively above their LTAs as they had not been released to the markets since they were acting as food reserves given that maize stocks had declined. Households did not also have any rice stocks since the crop was mainly grown for seed. Traders held 34 percent lower-than-normal stocks of maize but 12.8, four and 19 percent above-average stocks of rice, millet and sorghum respectively. Maize was sourced from outside the county so when the prices increased, traders reduced their stocks. Traders also increased stocks of rice to provide an alternative to maize which was in limited supply. They also stocked up more sorghum because households were resorting to milling the commodity to supplement maize fluor and was also the reason why millers did not have it in stock since it was being purchased directly from them. Millet stocks were normal for this time of the year. 3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock types found in the county include cattle, camel, goats, sheep, honey bees and poultry. The long rains season is significant for livestock production because it rejuvenates forage and recharges water sources. In-migration of livestock from dry-season grazing areas is usually contingent on the performance of the long rains and normally coincides with calving that increases milk availability at household level. Table 4 below illustrates the significance of livestock production to food and income in the county. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution to Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species Forage condition Forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones in the county. The pasture condition was below normal due to poor rejuvenation. Although the rains received may have been sufficient to enable rejuvenation, the pastures had been depleted due to three successive failed seasons, making it difficult to reverse the negative impacts. The available pasture is already depleted in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and is projected to be depleted by August across the rest of the zones while normally it would last at least until the onset of the short rains season. Browse condition was also below normal for this time of the year (Table 5). It is expected to be depleted by the end of July in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones and by mid-August in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone. The main factors limiting access to pasture include insecurity and cattle rustling along the borders of the county with Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet counties and also along the border of Tiaty sub-county with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties. Table 5: Forage condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition (Months) Factors limiting access Condition (Months) Factors limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming month1 month August) 5 months (December) 1 month August) 5 months (December) Irrigated cropping months (end of August) 6 months (January) 1 month August) 5 months (December) pastoral 3 weeks (end of July) 4 months (November) Limited water 2 weeks (end of July) 2 months (September) Browse scarcity all species Depleted Good 3 months (October) Insecurity, pasture scarcity 2 weeks (end of July) 2 months (September) Browse scarcity Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The body condition of all livestock types ranged mostly between fair and good. However, in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone, it was poor as pasture had been completely depleted lengthening the distances to grazing areas. The trend in body condition for cattle was likely to further deteriorate particularly in the pastoral livelihood zone where pasture was already depleted. Although there are off-season rains in the zone, they are unlikely to rejuvenate pasture because the level of depletion of was quite high. However, the goats body condition across all livelihood zones was likely to remain stable as browse was still available and will be further improved by the off-season rains. Birth rate The birth rates were slightly below-normal for all livestock species across all livelihood zones currently, at about 1.2 compared to the normal 3. The reduction could be associated with the negative impacts of three consecutive failed seasons which have reduced forage and water availability. Additionally, the pastoral-all species livelihood zone reported abortions due to the increased stress of accessing pasture that could also have contributed to the reduction. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 6). Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were the main reasons for the reduction. Table 6: Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species 1.5-6 Milk production and consumption Below normal forage availability and cattle migrations had resulted in lower-than-normal milk production and consequently consumption (Table 7). There was virtually no milk production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. However, they were importing milk from the mixed farming livelihood zone. The reduction had occasioned a deficit in milk supply and a hike in its prices across all livelihood zones. Table 7: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 0.5-1 Pastoral-all species Water for Livestock The main sources of water currently in use include boreholes, rivers Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani and Lakes Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and 94. The long rains recharged most of the water sources only to 30-50 percent due to lower-than- normal amounts. Distances to water sources have therefore increased (Table 8) with the available water projected to last up to the end of July in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones, up to the end of August in the irrigated farming zone and up to September in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 8: Water for livestock Livelihood Sources Return average distances (km) Expected duration to last (months) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1-3.5 1-1.5 3 months Throughout Twice daily Twice daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-3.5 1-1.5 months Throughout Twice daily Twice daily pastoral water pans, boreholes Streams, water pans, boreholes 1month 3 months 2 days 2 days all species pans, bore-holes pans, bore-holes weeks except in Boreholes 2 months 2 days 2 days Migration Migration had been witnessed both within the county and out-migration to other counties in search of pasture while others were moved in fear of insecurity which was not normal for this time of the year. Table 9 below shows the current migratory routes in the county. Table 9: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Baringo central Intra-migration from lowlands to mid lowlands Cattle in search of pastures Baringo south BSouth Marigat Mukutani and along the showers of L. Baringo and lake Bogoria Mukutani to other wards and Mogotio Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Baringo north (a) Sibilo and Yatya to Kalabata in Bartabwa for pastures (b) Barwessa towards Kerio River areas for pastures (c) Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Location due to insecurity (d) Saimo soi Kerio valley area (e) There was no inward migration Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Mogotio (i) Kamar, Molos, Radat and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. (ii) Sagasagik, Kiptoim and Rosoga to Kiplombe, Lembus and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Subcounty forests. Cattle in search of pastures Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons (iii) Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei towards Laikipia, Mochongoi, Banita and Menengai Crater in Nakuru County. Tiaty To Arabal, Mukutani and Nadome in Turkana. -RugusKomolion-Kiserian-Mukutani -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome -Churo-Laikipia and Sambu -From Orus and Amaya have are still in Arabal and Mukutani. - Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia -Kapau, Napur, Chepelow and Chamatasi to Pkatil Hills, Chesawach and Kwol. Cattle, sheep and goats in search of pastures Koibatek -Sagat,Chepnes, Muserechi, Mandina, Esageri to Kiplombe forests. -Nakuru County to the sub-county forests With the on-going off-season rains in the county, it is expected that the migrated livestock will come back home and increase milk production at household level due to rejuvenated pasture. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were reported livestock diseases in the county as indicated in Table 10 below. However, disease incidences were within the normal ranges. The mortality rate for sheep and goats was four percent while that of cattle was five percent. The mortalities were attributed to drought and diseases due to weakened livestock body condition. Table 10: Livestock diseases Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Contagious Caprine Pleuro- Pneumonia (CCPP) Saimo Soi, Baringo north Goats 170 shoats Kamurio, Tiaty Mukutani, Marigat, Ilchamus Nyimbei, Loboi, Baringo south Oterit, Emining, Kimose, Radat Mogotio Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Marigat, mukutani, salabani Baringo south Sheepgoats 73 shoats Tirioko, Katuwit, Koloa Tiaty Saimo soi Baringo north Salawa, Kaptara Baringo central East Coast Fever Saimo soi Baringo north Cattle 35 cattle Mochongoi, Mukutani Baringo south Amaya, Tiaty Heart water Ribko, Kamurio, Tiaty Goats 187 shoats Arabal, Mochongoi Baringo south Red Water Tirioko, Kamurio, Pkaruru Tiaty Cattle 2 cattle Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize price Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Mogotio, Sogon, Mogotio Cattle Tirioko and Ribko and Kerio Valley, Tiaty Tulwongoi, Lembus Central location,Kiplombe,Lebolos,Naitili,Kirobon, Parts of Mumberes Eldama ravine Ilchamus, Mochongoi Baringo south New Castle Disease Marigat, Baringo south Poultry 1,836 chicken Saimo soi, Kabartonjo Baringo north Salawa, Kabarnet Baringo central Poor body condition in cattle, lower-than-normal birth rates and TLUs have resulted in low milk availability and lower-than-normal consumption at household level for approximately 20 and 21 percent of the population in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones who rely on it for food particularly for children aged below five years. 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets functionality particularly for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones whose main source of food currently is markets. Therefore food commodity prices, income sources and terms of trade (a proxy indicator for determining purchasing power) are discussed in this section. Others include existence of food consumption gaps if any and the mechanisms employed to bridge them. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets for livestock include Marigat, Barwesa, Amaya, Kollowa, Nginyang, Kinyach, Tangulbei and Amaya. Others include Loruk and Kabel. The main ones for crops include Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang, Amaya, Kabartonjo, Barwesa, Kipsamaran and Marigat. Others include Kabel Mochongoi, Mogotio, Emining, Maji Moto and Cheberen. Most markets were operational except Loruk and Kinyach due to fear of insecurity. Lower-than- average supplies were also evident in Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang and Amaya due to the same reasons and the number of buyers was fewer compared to normal. Maize prices Maize prices were 67 and 107.7 percent higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) and the price recorded in June last year. The high prices were occassioned by low supplies. Prices were highest in the pastoral- all species livelihood zone and least in the mixed farming livelihood zone. Maize prices are likely to remain relatively stable although higher-than-normal through to September when some harvests will be realized. Marginal decreases in prices will occur after that when harvests reach the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat Prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade markets coupled with imports from neighbouring counties who will also have harvested the crop. Goat prices The average goat prices were 44 and 41 percent lower than the price recorded at a similar time last year and the 2012-2016 LTA respectively (Figure 4). Browse conditions and availability were below normal thereby increasing stress on goats as they trekked longer distances to access food. The prices were highest and lowest in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. They were expected to increase slightly through to September as there were currently off-season rains that were being experienced in the county that would renew browse and improve the goats body conditions. However, they will maintain a below-average trend. 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (TOT) were 73 and 65 percent below last years price at a similar period and the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 5). The implication of the reduction was that households could currently purchase lower quantities of maize compared to last year and at normal times with the proceeds from the sale of a goat. The reduction was occasioned by low goat prices against high maize prices. The highest and lowest TOT was reported in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. A slight improvement is expected in the TOT through to September as goat prices are expected to increase against stable maize prices. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and food-crop production. Income from livestock production had significantly reduced and a majority of households (88 ) in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and half of those in the agro-pastoral one have been considerably affected. The reduction in income has occurred at a time when they are wholly dependent on markets for food and has therefore compromised access to food in these zones. Likewise, in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones (where 60 and 35 percent respectively of the households rely on food-crop production for income, the reduced production had consequently resulted in reduced income. As a coping mechanism, households opted for other income-generating activities such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Water availability The three major water sources currently in use in the county include boreholes, water pans and springs across all livelihood zones (Table 11). Although they are the normal sources for this time of the year, the operational sources are less because of below-normal recharge. The long rains season recharged the water sources up to between 30 to 50 percent across all livelihood zones. Other sources normally in use include streams, rivers and shallow wells. There was also reduced flow in the major rivers such as Perkerra, Kerio, Amaya, Kiserian, Endao, Molo and Nginyang which had resulted in reduction in irrigated crop production. The main reasons behind the non-operational water sources included poor recharge rates from the rains, high evaporation rates and wear and tear due to over-use emanating from high demand from both humans and livestock. Other reasons were more of a perennial nature such as failure to pay electricityfuel bills so supply of water was cut off and poor management of water facilities. Table 11: Water availability Ward Livelihoo d zone Water Source (Three major sources No. of Normal No. of Current l Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duratio n that water last in months of full Capacity Recharge d by the Rains Locality of operational Water Sources Pastoral holes Months months Permanent source Tiringongwoni n BH, Kirim Sosionde BH Water 1 1 3 4 Months Kirim, Kasiela, Endao Springs 4 - 9 Months Months Agro - Pastoral holes Months months Permanent source Water 1 1 3 4 Months Springs 1 1 months Mixed Farming holes Months months Permanent source Springs 2 2 3 4 Months Rivers 2 2 3 4 Months Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 30 -40 Shallow wells 3months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamp Months Figure 6: Food consumption score May, 2016 May, 2017 Borderline Acceptable Figure 7: Coping strategies index Water access and utilization The below-optimal recharge of water sources had resulted in increased distances to water sources as some had dried up, others had broken down while some had poor quality of water. Insecurity also posed a challenge in access to water along borders of the county and Turkana County, and along borders of Tiaty (East Pokot sub-county) with Baringo NorthBaringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties. The consumption of water at household level consequently reduced as the waiting time at water sources increased due to high concentration of people and low discharge at water points (Table 12). Table 12: Water access and utilization 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a reduction in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period illustrated reduction proportion of households acceptable consumption score category (Figure Approximately percent of households acceptable consumption in May 2017 compared to 90.7 in May 2016. The implication was that there had been a reduction in the number of households who were consuming at least a staple and vegetables daily, complemented by frequent consumption of pulses and oil at least four times a week. 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index (CSI) for May 2017 was 18.6 compared with 12.9 at a similar time last year implying that more severe coping mechanisms were being employed more frequently (FSOM, 2017). deterioration pointed significant Livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Water Source (Ksh. 20litres) Waiting Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Mixed farming 0.5 2.5 1.5 3.5 2 5 3 5 2 - 4 5 - 7 20 - 25 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 - 25 20 - 25 consumption gaps as even the most severe coping strategies were the ones being employed most frequently (restriction of food consumption by adults to allow more for children). The least-employed consumption-based coping mechanism was the reduction of the number of meals. Additionally, approximately 45.2 and 24.6 percent of households were employing stressed and crisis livelihood-based coping strategies respectively (Figure 7). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June was 66.7 percent above the 2012-2016 LTA and more than double compared to similar last year. The implication was a deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years owed to the reduced food intake, dietary diversity and nutritive value as recorded in the food consumption score. Other reasons include poor child-care practices as only 35.5 percent of children were exclusively breast-fed. Morbidity Patterns Acute respiratory tract infections, diarhoea and malaria were the most prevalent diseases among children aged below five years and the general population across all livelihood zones. No.of cases (Malaria) No. of Cases (Diarrhoea) Malaria 2017 Malaria 2016 Diarrhoea 2017 Diarrhoea 2016 Figure 8: Morbidity patterns There was a decrease in malaria, upper respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea among children aged below five years and the general population. Malaria cases decreased due to the mass distribution of mosquito nets that had been carried out and was still on-going. However, the others decreased because there was less reporting of the diseases in the facilities since there was a nurses strike and some facilities had been closed due to insecurity particularly in East Pokot sub-county. Immunization and Vitamin A coverage The coverage of the fully immunized child (Table 13), vitamin A coverage, OPV 1, OPV 3 and measles decreased in May 2017 compared to a similar time last year due to interruption of health services delivery owed to the nurses strike and closure of facilities due to insecurity in East Pokot sub-county. Distances to health facilities also increased due to the closure of these facilities. Considering that the distances to water sources had also increased, the work- load on women charged with looking for food and water coupled with child care increased. Women therefore tended to prioritize these tasks as opposed to vaccination and immunization, particularly also because they had to walk further than normal to access these services. Table 13: Immunization coverage Percentage of fully immunized children in the County Source DHIS MOH 710 Vaccines and Immunizations Percentage children immunized against the mentioned diseases in the county Source: Nutrition survey January to June 2017 1. OPV 1 59.1 2. OPV 3 53.1 3. Measles 59.3 January to June 2016 66.86 1. OPV 1 75.1 2. OPV 3 62.2 3. Measles 69.1 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Approximately only 40-50 percent of households use protected water sources while only 3-5 percent treat water before consumption who were concentrated in urban areas and some parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone. The latrine coverage was seven, 16, 32 and 45 percent in the pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. With latrine coverage being below the recommended level and approximately half of households obtaining water from unprotected water sources, diarrhoeal diseases were reported to have ranked high in the morbidity trends in the county. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Feb 2017 Long rains assessment, July 2017 Maize stocks held by households () (mixed farming) 69 (Long rains assessment, July 2016) Livestock condition Fair to good Poor for cattle, Fair to good for the Water consumption (litres per person per day) Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral:10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Price of maize (Ksh. per Mid-upper circumference (MUAC) Terms of trade (number kilograms purchased proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index 12.9 (May 2016) 18.6 (May 2017) Food consumption score (percent) (May 2016) Poor 1.3 Borderline 8 Acceptable 90.7 (May 2017) Poor 14 Borderline 26.2 Acceptable 59.8 3.5 Education Access Enrolments in primary and secondary schools remained constant, with a 0.3 percent increase in primary, and 0.5 increase in secondary between Term I and Term II. There was a slight (1.5) increase in ECD over the same period. (Table 15). Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term I 2017 Term II 2017 (includes new students registered and drop-outs since Term I 2017) Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total Primary Secondary Participation Participation in the county was above 85 percent for most schools (Table 16). 40 Schools, affecting over 52, 360 learners (25, 626 Female) were temporarily closed due to insecurity in Kapedo along the boundary between Baringo and Turkana counties, borders of Tiaty with Baringo North, Baringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties, but had later been re-opened. 12 schools in Eldume, Sandai, Kimorok, Kapndasum and Arabal were hosting pupils who had ran away from the conflict areas. Attendance had remained relatively stable due to the presence of the school meals program in the county. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2016 Term I 2017 Term II 2017 Indicator November 2016 January 2017 February March 2017 May 2017 June 2017 School attendanc Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Primary Secondar Attendance for ECD and secondary remained stable between Term III 2016, Term I 2017 and Term II 2017, while primary attendance had a drop in attendance from Term III 2016 to Term I 2017 as shown in the graph below. Figure 9: School attendance Retention The drop-out rates remained relatively stable in the county, however, the dropout rate for females in ECD and Primary doubled in each case. In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3 at end of Term III 2016 to 6, while in primary the rate increased from 2 to 4 over the same period. For males, the rate stayed the same, 5, for primary, and decreased from 8 to 7 for ECD as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, the schools available were far away and households did not find any value in schooling so did not insist on children going to school. In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurityviolence, family labour responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. Finally for secondary schools, students dropped out due to early marriages, pregnancies, lack of school fees and family labour responsibilities. Generally girls dropped out due to pregnancies and early marriages while boys did, due to engagement in boda boda business which ensured quick cash. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term III 2016 End of Term I 2017 Students dropped out from school Boys Girls Boys Girls 1,998 1,387 1,901 1,534 Primary 3,543 2,828 3,448 2,649 Secondary School meals program The number of both boys and girls receiving school feeding was 104,075 through one of three types of school meals programme in the county (Figure 18). The programme has enhanced participation due to lack of food at home. Nevertheless, pupils at times missed meals in cases of insecurity particularly in Baringo North and East Pokot, as well as when there is insufficient water to cook food or there were delays in the food pipeline from the donors. 34,523 children are reported as missing meals in Baringo schools for these reasons. Table 18: School meals programme Inter-sector links The ministry of health regularly carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. The national government through the ministry of interior was holding peace-building campaigns in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Assumptions The October to December short rains season will be below-normal. Maize commodity prices will decline marginally through to September and are also likely to maintain an above-average trend. Rangeland conditions are likely to improve slightly through to September due to the on- going off-season rains in most parts of the county. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as most areas spot depleted rangelands due to poor rejuvenation from the past two seasons. Livestock prices are likely to increase slightly through to September owing to increased availability of forage rejuvenated from the off-season rains. However, they are likely to maintain a below-average trend due to lower-than-normal body condition. Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for July, August and September Rangeland resources are expected to improve slightly through to September owed largely to the on-going off-season rains. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as rejuvenation is projected to be lower-than optimal due to below-normal performance of the rains. However, livestock production might realize marginal improvements due to below- normal tropical livestock units attributed to mortalities during the last season. Additionally, most livestock are likely to continue migrating out of the county fuelling conflicts along Name of county No. of schools school feeding Total number of beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Girls Girls Mogotio 6,853 6,837 2,652 2,460 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 3,020 2,789 5,315 4,876 Pokot 9,006 7,727 1,292 Marigat 10,031 9,572 3,446 2,645 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 9,167 8,810 7,010 7,021 5,315 4,876 Koibatek 2,513 2,516 Subtotal 29,071 28,008 9,006 7,727 15,621 14,642 18,362 16,161 76,245 81,913 Grand total (boys girls) 57,079 16,733 30,263 34,523 104,075 migratory routes and increasing the countys livestock disease burden. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average. As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps related to access to market purchases. They are therefore likely to increase the number of consumption-based coping mechanisms and employ them more frequently in a bid to bridge this gap. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. As the access to food decreases, the nutritional status especially for children is likely to worsen. Subsequently, poor households in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) 4.3 Food security outcomes for October, November and December The onset of the short rains season is projected to be in October and will result in some rejuvenation of forage and recharge of water sources. However, the since the season is forecast to perform below-average in cumulative amounts, it is unlikely that these positive impacts will be long-lived since the county will still be recovering from the past two poor seasons. Therefore, although livestock production may improve as some livestock migrate back increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes, these are likely to occur at a small scale. The terms of trade are likely to improve marginally although they may remain below-average as commodity prices will remain at an all-time high due to reduced availability against lower- than-normal livestock prices. Coping mechanisms will likely increase in frequency and severity and food consumption gaps will therefore still be evident for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who will continue relying on markets for food purchases. The nutritional status of children will continue to deteriorate. Poor households in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone will therefore remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For households in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, harvests will have been realized although at lower-than-normal levels. Stocks will be depleted necessitating reliance on markets earlier than normal. With food commodity prices projected to be above-average, poor households in these zones are unlikely to attain minimum dietary requirements and are therefore likely to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers this season include poor rainfall performance, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 50-75 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which as characterized by poor temporal distribution and a late onset. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture had increased and livestock had migrated earlier-than-normal reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than-normal livestock prices significantly reducing pastoralists terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households vulnerability as this is the main season for crop production in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the poor performance of the rainy season. There had been a significant reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to reduced dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. The reduction in food consumption had manifested in an increase in the frequency and severity of coping strategies being employed. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years had also been recorded and could largely be attributed to the reduced food consumption coupled with poor child care practices. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county security rank (1-6) Main food security threat (if any) East Pokot Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo North Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Agriculture Sector Immediate on going interventions counties Purchase of chemicals and equipment for the control of fall army worm counties 20,000HH State department of Agriculture and Baringo County Government (BCG) -Department of Agriculture Salvage damaged July - County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Horticulture development project( provision of green houses, drip kits and assorted fruit tree seedlings counties 12,000 HH Department of Agriculture , livestock and Fisheries- BCG Increased income generation tion of wealthy creation through value addition Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Eldama Ravine Provision of coffee and macadamia seedlings Kabarnet, Kapropita, Ewalel Chapchap, Sacho, Tenges, Mogotio, Koibatek, Mochongo 3500 HH Department of Agriculture , livestock and Fisheries- BCG Income generation wealthy creation through value addition Livestock Sector Immediate on going interventions Baringo Disease control(vaccinati against Black-quarter Koibatek Baringo south 5,120 cattle 1000 cattle MOALF, Reduced incidences livestock diseases leading to improved livestock condition Baringo Feeds distribution (hay, drought pelletsmeal) Molasses Mineral Blocks 20,000 Livestock MOALF, Increase chances of livestock survival during drought period Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Supply and distribution of beehives counties 847 hives promote County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security counties Supply and distribution of chicks counties 10,000 to 50 groups promote tion and ensure gender equity counties Pasture establishment and seed bulking plots Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty RPLRP Promote livestock feeds availabilit 2016- Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate interventions All Sub Counties Vitamin A Supplementation and Zinc Supplementation All health facilities, selected 193,000 MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK Afya uzazi, County department of health Improved immunity Selected health facilities all over county Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and Improved immunity 16.6M All Sub Counties Interventions (EBF and timely introduction of complementary foods) All health facilities communit y units County department of health supported by Afya Uzazi Improved immunity 780,000 Routi All Sub Counties Iron folate supplementation among pregnant women All health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Improved immunity All Sub Counties Deworming All health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Afya Uzazi Improved immunity 600,000 Routi Pokot Blanket supplementary feeding All health facilities outreach sites County department of health supported by WFP,WVK Improved immunity 21,510,31 July- County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security All Sub Counties Outreaches and mass screening 49 site County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Improved health 40,000,00 going Mogotio, Eldamara Mass net distribution Mogotio, Eldamarav County Government, National malaria control programme. Decreased morbidity due to malaria 18,000,00 going Water Sector Immediate interventions counties Water trucking Institution Institutions BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Reduced distances accessing water. going counties Borehole rehabilitation Communit 200HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increase in access to safe water going counties Capacity building on water management County 2 Sub counties RCS, WV, UNCEF Increased knowledge on safe water. going Medium and Long Term on going interventions counties Construction of new water projects counties 1840 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Reduced distances accessing water. counties Rehabilitation, drilling and equipping of boreholes counties 5120 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increase in access to safe water counties Capacity building on water management counties 2130 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA Increased knowledge on safe water. Education Sector County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Immediate interventions B. North Provision of food items (HGSMP,CSMP, EHGMP) Sibilo Pri, Kapluk Pri, Kipcherere Pri, Bartabwa Pri, Akoreyan Pri, Atiar Pri GOK,CG Parents, WVK, NGOs, KRS Increase enrolment, transition rate and retention Central Planting of mangoes, groundnuts, pawpaw green grams, cowpeas for income in schools Salawa Pri, Kaptara Pri, Chesongo Pri, Kapkelelwa Ochii Pri GOK, CG, partners To earn income to purchase food in times of scarcity Marigat HGSMP, Mukutani Pri, Arabal Pri, Kapndasum Ngelecha Pri, Noosuguro pri, Kiserian Pri, Kailer Pri, Sandai Pri, Loboi Pri, Kapkuikui Pri, Ngambo Pri, Barsemoi Pri, Salabani Pri, Perkerra Pri, Loitip Pri, Eldume Pri, Endao Pri GOK,MOE,WFP,KRS, WVK,UNICEF Increase access to education, improve health status and 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-county security rank (1-6 Main food security threat (if any) East Pokot Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo North Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame Agriculture Sector Immediate recommended Interventions counties Capacity building of staff on fall army worm control and provision of chemicals counties 100,000 households Department of Agriculture stakeholders Million Staff immediat Medium and Long Term recommended interventions Livestock Sector counties Distribution of hay and food supplements to affected livestock counties 41,500 HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,2017 counties Disease control(vaccina tions against FMD,CCPP, Black quarter counties Countywide BCG, National government Development partners and Dec, 2017 counties Emergency Livestock off- take, (commercial counties 1,500HH BCG(MOALF) ,Nat. Govt. Dec, 2017 county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame and slaughter) Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate recommended interventions Mass screening Hard-to-reach areas 80 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 14,000,00 2,000,000 June Oct Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat Mogotio Integrated medical outreaches Hard-to-reach areas 40 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 16,000,00 3,000,000 June Oct counties Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs Household getting water from dams 1200 hH County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, 6,000,000 1,000,000 June Oct Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions Selected health facilities (30) all over the county Implement IMAM surge counties 30 health facilities County department of health services, , WVK 50,000,00 29,000,00 2017101 Selected Implement counties 30 health facilities County department of health services, BBC media action, WVK, Afya uzazi 7,000,000 1,500,000 2017101 county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame counties Purchase and distribute fridge to new health facilities for preservation of vaccines Hard to reach areas 25 Health facilities County department of health services,, WVK, afya Uzazi 5250,000 500,000 2017101 Water Sector Immediate interventions counties Provision of fuelelectricity subsidy Community 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units and stock piling of fast- moving spares 20 community water supplies Community 2150HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months counties Roof -water harvesting structures Institutions Communities 30 Inst. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, months Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions counties Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across all livelihoods 2300HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs counties Construction Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies Across all livelihoods 3800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 5 yrs counties Construction of 4 dams,18 water pans and 18 farm ponds for domestic and irrigation water use Across all livelihoods 6500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1100M 1 -5Yrs Education Sector Immediate interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Frame Baringo North HSGMP,EHS Baringo North Jul-Dec Mogotio HGSMP Mogotio Jul-Dec pokot Purchase of beehives,camel ,goats East Pokot PO,UNICEF Jul-Dec Marigat Construction of temporary boarding facilities to house IDPs Eldume,Sanda i,Kimorok,Ka pndasum,Ara 2000IDPs due to insecurity PO,UNICEF,F Jul-Dec Central Construction of a dam in school Kaptara pri,Chesongo, Salawa,Kapke lelwa,Mogor GOK,BCG,FB Jul-Dec",
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group August, 2018 1 Fredrick Owino (State Department for Development of ASALs); Charles Chebarwett (World Vision Kenya). INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 4 County Background..................................................................................................... 4 Objectives .................................................................................................................... 4 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY .............. 5 Rainfall Performance................................................................................................... 5 InsecurityConflict ....................................................................................................... 6 Other Shocks and Hazards .......................................................................................... 6 Availability .................................................................................................................. 6 Access........................................................................................................................ 11 Utilization .................................................................................................................. 15 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ................................................................... 17 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES .......................................................................................... 18 Education ................................................................................................................... 18 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ................................................................................ 19 Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 19 Food Security Outlook for September to November, 2018 ...................................... 19 Food Security Outlook for December to February, 2019.......................................... 19 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS ................................................................ 20 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 20 Ongoing Interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Recommended Interventions ..................................................................................... 23 Food security assessment is a bi-annual assessment conducted by a multi-agency and multi sector representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) drawn from all the key government sectors and various non-state actors. The 2018 long rains food security assessment which covered all the 23 Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) counties of Kenya was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018. In Baringo county, the assessment covered the four main livelihood zones namely Mixed farming, Pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The overall objective was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was early in the first dekad of March. The cumulative amounts received during the season amounted to 931mm which were above 350 percent of normal long rains. Spatial distribution was even and good temporal distribution characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. There was a general increase in acreage planted for crops both for the rain-fed agriculture and also irrigated agriculture due to massive campaigns by the county government to enhance food security and also the shamba system which saw more forest land opened up for cultivation. Projected production is also expected to be above the long term average. The current household maize stocks stands at 150 percent of the long term average with most of it held by farmers in Eldama Ravine due to carry over from the previous season. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species across the county due adequate forage and water. Return trekking distances have reduced and range between three to four kilometres in the agro-pastoral zones and up to six kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production and consumption at household level have slightly improved especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones where four to six litres are produced per household. Markets operations are normal in most markets except for Barwessa ward where markets are closed due to quarantine. Livestock prices are above the long term average due to good body condition while food commodity prices have fallen below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 71 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat compared to 31 kilograms same period last year. There was improvement in the food consumption score with 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption score. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the proportion of households within the borderline food consumption group is 23 percent and 32 percent in pastoral livelihood zone. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18 percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and similar proportion relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. Nutritional status also showed an improvement with GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average standing at seven percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 17 percent. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition stands at 13 percent. The county is thus classified as Minimal or None (IPC Phase 1) across all livelihood zones except pastoral livelihood zone which is stressed (IPC Phase 2). 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers approximate 11,015 square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Projected Population). Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percents respectively as shown in Figure 1. Main sources of income in the county include: Livestock production contributing 88 percent of cash income in the pastoral; 50 percent in the agro- pastoral; and 23 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Others sources of income include: Cash crop production; food crop production and casual waged labour with varied contributions across livelihood zones (Table 9). 1.2. Objectives The overall objective of the Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at the livelihood level the quality and quantity of the 2018 March to May long rains and assess their impact on all key sectors including crop; livestock; water and sanitation; health and nutrition; and education. To establish the impacts of other compounding factors on household food security, such as livestock diseases, livestock mortality, crop failures and market food prices. To establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities including food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 2: Rainfall distribution as a percent of normal Methodology and Approach The 2018 LRA assessment which was a multi-agency and multi sectoral approach consisted of representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) drawn from all the key government sectors and various non-state actors. The process involved an in-depth data collection and analysis of primary data including Key Informant Interviews (KII), Focussed Group Discussions (FGDs), community interviews, market surveys, and checklists administration. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary information was also analysed from the SMART surveys, National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) monthly bulletins, and Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) data. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports generated. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The assessment was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018 covering all the 23 Arid and Semi-arid (ASAL) counties of Kenya. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission with the aim of triangulating the information in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership as the true reflection of the county food security status. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern with the long rains season occurring in March to May and short rains season October December. The County receives average annual rainfall ranging from 500 millimetres (mm) in the lowlands and up to 1,500 mm in the highlands around Kabartonjo, Kabarnet, Sacho and Barwessa divisions. county rains dependent for crop production across all the livelihood zones. The onset of long rains was early in the first dekad of March compared to the normal onset in the second dekad of March. The cumulative amount of rains received during the season amounted to 931mm which was over 350 percent of normal long rains as shown in figure 2. Spatial distribution was even across the county with good temporal distribution characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Currently there are no major resource based conflicts in the county. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholder to enhance peaceful coexistence among the households living in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards In Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones of Baringo South outbreak of Rift Valley fever and Blue tongue diseases were reported. These diseases threaten the livelihoods of farmers who rely upon the animals for food and income supply. The diseases are likely to spread to other area if not contained on time. Fall Army Worm (FAW) out-breaks were reported in all livelihood zones across the county at the beginning of the season. Despite the FAW outbreak, maize production was not affected because of the substantial rains that suppressed the larva enabling maturity of the maize plant. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Baringo County depends mainly on the long rains for crop production across all the livelihood zones except in irrigated cropping livelihood zone which depends on irrigation. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones contributing 63 and 21 percents to food in the respective zones. While in the same zones, Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. However, in the irrigated zones, maize is grown for commercial purposes contributing 26 percent to cash income. Due to its varied ecological zoning, the County has diversified crops. The main food crops grown in the County include Maize, Beans, millets, Irish Potatoes, cow peas and Sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops and even cash crops like coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Rain-fed crop production The three main crops grown under rain-fed agriculture during the long rains were maize, beans and finger millet. Generally the acreage cultivated in 2018 was higher than the long term average due to massive campaigns by the county government to increase food security through provision of inputs; improved rainfall and also the shamba system a programme which saw opening up of new forest land in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo central. The acreage for maize and finger millet increased by 13 and 5 percent respectively of their long-term averages while that of beans reduced by 4 percent as shown in Table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because most of the farms were inaccessible with machinery in the low lying areas of Kerio valley and Churo Amaya wards due to the heavy long rains The rains positively affected the growth of the crops except in the low lying areas of the county in which 348 hectares of land was affected by floods. Table 1: Crop Production under Rain-fed Agriculture Area planted during 2018 Long rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Long rains season 2018 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Long rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 45,122 40,046 1,133,940 800,650 Beans 21,196 22,028 200,709 253,223 Finger millet 5,744 5,466 43,904 39,325 Despite the attack of Maize crop by Fall Army Worm (FAW), production is expected to be above the LTA, since farmers controlled the worm and also the continuous rains reduced the effect of the pest. Around 14,130 hectare was affected by the worm affecting about 31 percent of the crop. Maize harvest is projected to be 42 percent above the long term average while that of finger millet is projected to be 12 percent above the long term average production. The Bean crop was also affected by the heavy rains and their production was expected to be below the long term average by 21 percent as most beans were destroyed by excess rains. The average maize production across the County is expected to be 25 bags per hectare. Mixed farming areas and irrigated livelihood zone is projected to have the highest production as compared to the Agro pastoral zones. Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize grown commercially for seed, beans, cowpeas, watermelon and tomatoes. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 42 percent compared to the LTA due to availability of water thus more farmers were contracted by the seed companies. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and beans by 28 and 10 percent respectively. The decline in these acreages was attributed to the flooding which destroyed arable lands. Production is expected to decline for beans and tomatoes by 18 and 13 percents of the long term averages as most of the crops were affected by fungal diseases due to the continuous wet conditions which also affected watermelons. However, production for commercial maize, cowpeas and seed maize is expected to record above long term average as shown in table 2 below. Notably, irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms Table 2: Crop Production under Irrigated Agriculture Area planted during the 2018 Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2018 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2018 Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 1,392 1,106 Beans Cowpeas Tomatoes Seed Maize 2,166 1,524 84,264 57,150 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The county recorded high volumes of cereal stocks which were above the long term averages maize, rice, sorghum, green grams and millet. Maize stock for instance was 87 percent above the long term average of 197,397 bags in the county. Farmers held 150 percent of their long term averages maize stocks as shown in table 3 below. The above LTA stocks held by farmers were as a result of early harvesting in parts of agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones where planting was early. Furthermore, there were carry-over stocks from the previous season in the mixed farming zones of Eldama Ravine as farmers did not clear their 2017 stocks in anticipation of better prices from NCPB. The stocks held by farmers for Sorghum, Green grams and millet increased by 60, 151 and 10 percents respectively. The above LTA stock of green grams held by farmers were due to increased acreage planted under irrigated livelihood zone during the short rains season of 2017. The current maize stocks held by household is expected to last for 4-5 months in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones and only 1-2 months in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Traders hold 346 percent of the LTA due to slow movement since farmers have started harvesting and have stocks and are also utilizing green maize coupled with low market prices. Posho millers currently hold 93 percent above their LTA maize stock. Table 3: Commodity Stocks in the County Commodity Maize Sorghum Green gram Millet Current Current Current Farmers 249,78 167,05 1,511 1,372 Traders 78,900 22,818 2,501 2,577 Millers 14,552 7,523 25,932 Total 369,16 197,39 3,008 2,579 1,026 1,971 1,875 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. There is also an effort by the county government to promote rabbit farming. Livestock production contributes 88 percent to cash income in the pastoral livelihood zones, 50 percent in the agro-pastoral, 23 percent in mixed farming and eight percent in the irrigated livelihood zone. Pasture and Browse Condition The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones as shown in table 4 below. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and legume by-products are conserved for livestock feed. These by-products are important as they are utilized during dry period and hence supplementing strategic feed reserves in the county. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the county which is an improvement from the previous season. The improvement in body condition is attributed to availability of forage and water due to good performance of rainfall. Body condition is expected to remain good throughout the season. As a result of the improved body condition it is expected that there will be increase in livestock prices, household income and milk production. Subsequently, the nutritional status of children under the age of five will improve. Table 5 below summarizes and compares to normal the body condition of various livestock species in the county. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Water Availability and Access The main sources of water include: Shallow wells, boreholes, permanent rivers, water pans, streams, springs and piped water. Most open water sources were adequately recharged at 90- 100 percent of their capacities. The trekking distances have reduced compared to same period the previous year due to adequate recharge levels at the sources. Currently, the distances are up to one kilometre in the mixed farming livelihood zones, 3-4 kilometres in the irrigated cropping and ago-pastoral livelihood zones while in the pastoral areas, the distances range between 4-6 kilometres. The watering frequency has improved due to availability of water and all livestock species are watered daily as shown in table 6 below. Livelihood Pasture Browse condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors Limiting access condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Normal Mixed farming to fair Irrigated cropping to fair Up surging lake water Agro-pastoral to fair to fair Pastoral to fair to fair Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Fair to Fair to Fair to Pastoral Fair to Fair to Fair to Table 6: Water Availability and Access Liveli Sources Expected Duration to last (Months) Return trekking distance(Km) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Until onset of short rains Until onset of short rains 0.5-1 1-1.5 Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Until onset of short rains Until onset of short rains Daily Daily pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Daily Daily Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, seasonal rivers Water- pans, Bore-holes Daily Daily Birth Rates, Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Current birth rates are normal and within the seasonal range of two to four percent but higher than the rates recorded in the previous seasons due to good body condition. Similarly, there was a slight increase in milk production and consumption at household levels due to availability of forage and water across all the livelihood zones as shown in table 7 below. Milk prices currently range between Ksh. 50-60 per litre in the county which is normal at this time of the year. Table 7: Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Average Number of Livestock (Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs) Table 8: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Milk Production per HH (ltrs) Milk consumption per HH (ltrs) Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral The average tropical livestock unit is 2.5 for the poor income household and 4.7 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, there was slight increase in TLUs over the previous season due to the restocking of small stocks in the month of May and June by the Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Programme (RPLRP). Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities There was no livestock migration reported into and out of the county. However, livestock diseases reported in the county include: Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Sheep and Goat Pox, PPR, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Rabies, Blue tongue, Enterotoxaemia, Black quarter, and New Castle Disease (NCD). There was also confirmed outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum area and Lumpy Skin Disease in Barwessa ward leading to imposition of quarantine in Barwessa by the time of the assessment. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. The mortality rates for all livestock species were at normal ranges at two percent. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub- counties. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main food commodity markets in the county include: Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main livestock markets include Barwessa, Kinyach, Kollowa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat and Emining. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. However, in Barwessa ward, markets have been closed due to imposition of quarantine as a result of outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever has also been confirmed in Logumgum area which is likely to result in closure of markets. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep while food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market Supplies and Traded Volumes The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodity traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock because of the good body condition. Figure 3: Average Maize Price per kilo in the County Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 4: Average Goat Prices in the County Price (Ksh.) 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price The current price of a kilogram of maize for July was Ksh. 42 compared to Ksh. 58 same period in the previous year which lower percent. Compared average, the price was 10.6 percent lower. Highest prices recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.65 per kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 35 per kilogram. The low prices recorded in the irrigated livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the timely maturing of on-farm crops which enabled households access green maize. The trend of maize price has shown a general decline from the month of February which is a sharp contrast to that of the previous year when the season performed dismally as shown in figure 3. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones hence the decrease in maize prices increases there capability to buy maize and also makes Terms of Trade (ToT) favorable. The farmers in irrigated livelihood zones depend on maize as an income source, Low prices in prices diminish their ability to have cash income from maize. Goat Prices Currently as at July, an average sized goat was valued at Ksh. 2,972 compared to the long term average price of Ksh. 2,107 and Ksh. 1,773 same period in the previous year as shown in figure 4. The current price is 41 and 67.6 percent above the LTA and period respectively. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty at Ksh. 3,000 while the lowest prices were recorded in the agro-pastoral livelihood zones at an average of Ksh. 2,800 The price trend from the month of March to July has been consistently above LTA and similar period the previous year which is majorly attributed to the good body condition of the goats. Figure 5: Comparative Terms of Trade in the County Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat 3.2.3. Terms of Trade Terms trade improved favorable currently as the sale of an average sized goat would purchase 71 kilograms maize translating to 61 percent above the LTA (Table 5). Comparing current terms of trade with the same period last year, there significant improvement from 31 kilograms in 2017 to 71 kilograms in 2018 which is attributed the fall of maize prices coupled with an increase in goat prices. The trend shows a general improvement in the terms of trade since the month of February. 3.2.4. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones contributing 88 and 50 percents of cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percents respectively. Other sources of income include: Food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all species Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Livestock Production Production Production Fishing Casual Waged Labour Small Business 3.2.5. Water Access and Availability (Including Cost and Consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Roof-water harvesting structures are commonly used across all livelihoods in institutions. Most of the water sources were adequately recharged between 90100 percent of their capacities across all livelihoods zones due to heavy rains. Currently surface water facilities hold approximately 6575 percent of their normal capacities. Intakes in Sandai, Kamuskoi, Endao, Salabani were destroyed and or silted due the performance of rains. Flatswampy areas previous cultivated during times of inadequate rains were not productive during the season because of water clogging and flooding. In isolated cases, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs and poor management of the resource. However, the status of water levels in dams, boreholes, shallow wells, springs, rivers and water pans is stable across all livelihood zones. The available water is expected to last between 3-4 months except in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas experiencing high temperatures leading to high evaporation where water is expected to last between 2-3 moths Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to water sources have reduced compared to the normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones the distances have reduced by approximately 50 percent, which has largely been attributed to the good performance of the rains. The average distances to domestic water sources were normal at 3-5 kilometres in pastoral agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 4-5 kilometres. The distances were normal at less than two kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. Water from open water source (rivers, dams and water pans) are not retailed. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 2530 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 20-25 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 2-4 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was less than two minutes as shown in table 10 below. Table 10: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for domestic use (Kms) Cost of water (KES) Waiting time at water source (minutes) Average HH use (litrespersonday) Projected duration of water in (months) Current Normal Current Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 34.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 pastoral 33.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 Mixed Farming 0.51.5 0.5-2.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 4 25-30 20- 25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5-1.5 0.5-1.5 3 5 3 5 1 - 3 25-30 20- 25 3.2.6. Food Consumption Table 11: Food Consumption Scores by Groups LRA 2017 LRA 2018 Female Female Borderline Acceptable The mean food consumption score in the western agro-pastoral cluster is 65 with 91 percent of the population having acceptable, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores as shown in Table 11 above. There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year as shown in the table above. According to the drought early warning bulletin for the month of June, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.7. Coping Strategy The mean reduced coping strategy index for the western agro-pastoral cluster was 14 compared to 19 the same period last year. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. In July households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18 followed by Pastoral at 14. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3. Female exhibited more coping strategies at 18 while male having a mean coping strategy of 13. Within the cluster, only two percent of the population was reported as not coping. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 21 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 17 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea were reported to be the most prevalent diseases for under-fives and the general population in the county (Table 12 and 13). There was an increase of 24 percent in upper respiratory infections in 2018 from 4,857 cases same period last year. This was mainly attributed to prolonged rains which brought about cold temperatures resulting in high rates of pneumonia and flu. Table 12: Morbidity Trends for the Under-Fives Disease Upper Respiratory Tract Infections(URTI) Diarrhoea Figure 6: Proportion of children with MUAC less than 135mm Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec at risk (MUAC135mm) Malaria Table 13: Morbidity Trends for the General Population 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The proportion of children under one year who are fully immunized (FIC) in the county from January to June 2018 is 71 percent compared to 60 percent same time last year. The increase in coverage for fully immunized child was attributed to increase in intergraded outreaches and improvement in the cold-chain in the county. Also, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program contributed to the wider immunization coverage in the county. Analysis of data from the DHIS indicates that Vitamin A supplementation coverage was 71.7 percent for children aged 6-59 months for the period January to June 2018 compared to 59.8 percent same period in 2017. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-59 months was attributed to Malezi Bora activities conducted at ECD and community health units. The coverage in Baringo Central, Baringo South, Baringo North, Mogotio and Koibatek were 105, 41, 64, 73, and 43 percent respectively. East Pokot reported the lowest coverage of 36 percent. 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The Global Acute Malnutrition prevalence for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent. According to SMART survey conducted in June 2018, Tiaty Sub County recorded prevalence percent compared to 25.2 percent recorded period year, indication of improvement in nutritional status. According sentinel NDMA, the proportion of children below five years malnutrition decreased from 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which Disease Upper Respiratory Tract Infections(URTI) Diarrhoea Malaria is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017 as shown in figure 6 above. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is five while adults have three meals a day. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is two meals a day. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is a major challenge for pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with cultural values. Most households in the pastoral zone relieve themselves in the bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends in Baringo County Indicator Short rains assessment, February Long rains assessment, July of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good for all livestock species in the mixed farming zone, Good to fair for cattle and sheep in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones Good for all livestock species across all livelihood zones Water consumption (litres per person per day) 12-15 in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones 15-20 in the mixed farming and up to 25 in the irrigated farming Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 20-25pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Irrigated: 25-30 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing (km) Mixed farming: 1-3 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-7 Pastoral: 6-13 Mixed farming: 1 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Pastoral: 5-6 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index Mean 15.7 Agro-pastoral 15.3 Pastoral 18.4 Irrigated zone 2.8 Mean: 14.1 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Pastoral 14.2 Irrigated: 3.2 Food consumption score Poor: 18 Borderline: 20 Acceptable: 61 Poor: 1.1 Borderline: 8.0 Acceptable: 90.8 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education Access (Enrolment) There was an increase of 799 children (439 girls, 360 boys) at the end of Term II in ECD enrolment within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out through the year. Primary school enrolment was stable through Term I and II across all the sub counties. Secondary schools enrolment increased in Term II compared to Term I due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and free registration of candidates by Kenya National Examination Council (KNEC). Table 15: Enrolment Term I 2018 Term II 2018 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 26,779 25,059 51,838 27,139 25,498 52,637 Primary 74,064 69,623 144,592 74,534 69,910 144,444 Secondary 20,798 20,633 41,431 21,858 21,042 42,900 Participation (Attendance) The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECD centres decreased in Term II compared to Term I because of delay in disbursement of HGMP funds to primary schools. ECDE centres which are devolved at the County rely on primary schools for meals because theres no budgetary allocation at the County. Despite the increase in enrolment at ECDE centres, Marigat Sub County recorded 373 pupils unable to attend classes due to floods and insecurity. In Baringo Central sub county 287 pupils (236 boys and 51 girls) from secondary school missed school due to negative influence from peers, transfers and motor bike riding for boys. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys in February and June respectively. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay in delivery of food). School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 71,937 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 16: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP Schools Girls Totals Koibatek Mogotio 10,586 10,489 21,075 B North 6,937 6,539 13,476 BCentral 3,141 3,101 6,242 Marigat 6,347 6,295 12,642 Tiaty 10,709 7,793 18,502 Totals 37,720 34,217 71,937 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), there is an elevated probability that cumulative rainfall for the October to December short rains will be above average over the eastern and western Kenya. According to the veterinary department given the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum, there is high likelihood of the spread of the RFV to other parts of the county leading to market disruptions due to quarantine in Barwessa and Baringo South. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, wholesale maize prices are expected to remain below the 2017 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected favourable harvests. According to the State department of Agriculture, Fall Army Warm (FAW) infestation will likely remain at 10 to 15 percent through the scenario period due to the mitigating effect of the heavy March to May rains. According to FEWSNET June, 2018 to January, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically remain above normal through September to the onset of the short rains. 5.2. Food Security Outlook for August to October, 2018 The food security situation in the county is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk at household level and continued integrated health outreach services. No food security related mortalities are expected between September and November. There is no likely change expected in the phase classification for the scenario period. 5.3. Food Security Outlook for November to January, 2019 Food security situation over the period December to February, is projected to remain stable but on a declining trend with minimal food deficits. Even though rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the short rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to decline. Food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from acceptable food consumption score to borderline food consumption score due to diminishing household stocks and reduced milk availability. Households are expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due continued integrated outreach programmes. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain stressed for the pastoral livelihood zone and minimal for all other livelihood zones. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is minimal (IPC Phase 1) for mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the pastoral all species livelihood zone. 6.1.2. Summary of Findings There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year. The mean food consumption score in the county is 65. 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14.1 with female having a mean of 17.5 while male have a mean coping strategy of 12.6. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24.4 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20.5 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18.1 percent reduced number of meals per day; 16.8 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 16.5 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. The GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 16.8 percent compared to 25.2 percent recorded same period last year. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition decreased from 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017. 6.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking (1Most insecure, 4Least food insecure) Current main food security threats Tiaty High malnutrition rates, Poor accessibility of roads, reported cases of livestock deaths, poor quality water, floods, high temperatures Baringo South Insecurity fears, Upsurge of IDPs, Floods, closure of schools due to insecurity and floods, closure of health centres, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever Baringo North LSD in Barwessa, Poor infrastructure, floods, markets closure in Barwessa ward, high temperatures, Mogotio Floods, Fall Army Worm, Livestock diseases, Blue Tongue, fast depletion of water sources, high food prices, human diseases Baringo Central Landslides, flooding in the lowlands, high food prices, Eldama Ravine Fall Army Worm, Livestock Diseases (Blue Tongue) Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 71,917 pupils in 336 primary schools. 5.2.2 Non-Food Interventions Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders Agriculture Provision of air tight Post-harvest devices Reduction on post-harvest losses All wards Ksh. 1.3 million Schools-12 Individuals 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Provision of relief inputs (Planting seeds, Land preparation and Fertilizer) Improved production and productivity 10 wards 1,000,000 2,310 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of chemical Reduce the attack of Maize All wards 1,100,000 20,000 2017-2018 Department of Agriculture Livestock Disease control (Vaccinations and vector control) Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition Baringo Central, South, North, Mogotio 2,700,000 livestock farmers February to December BCG and Department of Livestock Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes Increase chances of livestock survival during drought period Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty 20,000,000 20,000 Livestock (TLUs) Feb 2017-June MOALF, Disease surveillance on RVF and other diseases Ensure proper monitoring of disease incidences for proper interventions All Sub Counties 50,000 100,000 TLUs Feb 2017-June Capacity building of Farmers (Normal Extension and Pastoral Field School Concept) Well Infirmed staff and farmers for best practices All Sub Counties 5,000,000 Throughout Partners Water and Sanitation Water trucking Improve water access Whole County 500,000 Institutions On going BCG, NG, BHs rehabilitation Improve water access Whole County 10,000,000 households On going BCG, NG, Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders Capacity building on water management and catchment protection Capacity strengthening on water resource management Whole County 600,000 2 Sub counties On going RCS, WV, UNCEF Construction of New water Projects Improve water access Whole County 46,000,000 1,560 households 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV Health and Nutrition Vitamin A Supplementation To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security. All health facilities, selected 1,850,000 70,000 Routine supported by UNICEF, Zinc Supplementation To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities 2,000,000 32,000 Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) improveadjust the Nutrient status of the affected community. 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 20,000000 1,500 Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) To lower morbidity and mortalities hence improving food security. All health facilities community units 1,000,000 20,000 Routine County Department of Health Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities Ksh. Ksh. 2,450,000 21,000 Routine County Department of Health supported by UNICEF Deworming To enhance children participation and growth All health facilities 1,000,000 21,000 children Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF Food Fortification (MNPS-micronutrient powder supplementation. To improve the Micronutrient status of the hence food security All health facilities 700,000 31,000 Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF Education To increase access and All sub counties schools Continuous M.O.EWFP Interventions Objectives Specific Location Target No. of on Time Frame Stakeholders retention of learners 71,937 pupils Supply of water storage tanks To increase access and retention of learners, and Baringo Central secondary school with 102 students One year UNICEF Supply of water safeguards To improve access to clean water Baringo Central secondary school with 170 students One year UNICEF 6.3. Recommended Interventions 6.3.1. Food Interventions Following the assessment of the long rains on the impact on various sectors, the team recommended reduction in the population in need of immediate food aid in the county as shown in Table 18 below. Table 18: Population in need of Food Assistance 6.3.2. Non-Food Interventions County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Agriculture Development of strategy for the Department 111,000 households County Government , Development partners Ksh. 5M Human resources Developme documents including CIDP, Manifesto 2018-2019 SNo. Sub-County Population in need ( range min max) Proposed intervention Tiaty 15-20 Baringo South 10-15 Baringo North 10-15 Mogotio Baringo central Eldama Ravine County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Capacity building of staff on FAW control and provision of 50 staff Department of Agriculture and stakeholders Ksh. 2M Staff Immediately Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers) 8,000 households MOALF Ksh. 3M Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Water Harvesting for household food security- Farm ponds and equipping existing ones and irrigation schemes 10,000 households MOALF , WORLD VISION NDMA, CIM, ACTION AID, Technical personnel 2018-2022 Post Harvest technologies promotion 20,000 households MOALF and stakeholders Ksh. 1M Technical staff One year Livestock Baringo North Tiaty Baringo - South Mogotio Livestock off- take(Market SupportCess) 1,500 households BCG(MOALF) ,Nat. Govt.(KLMC) Technical officers August, 2018-Dec, All Sub counites Disease control(Rift Valley Fever, Blue Tongue and Lumpy skin disease) Disease surveillance areas(Blue tongue) (Marigat, Mogotio, and All areas(FMD), (Barwessa) 60,000 Tongue- 150,000 50,000 BCG, National government Development partners Ksh. 9M Technical officers Feb, 2018- Mar, 2018 Baringo North Tiaty Baringo South Mogotio Provision of pasture seeds All Wards 2,000 households MOALF(BLRP RPLRP NDMA(EU) Partners Ksh.10 August 2018-Sept Baringo North Tiaty Baringo South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 41,500 households MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Technical officers Aug 2018- Dec,2018 County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Mogotio south and 1 in Mogotio in Mogotio Water and Sanitation All Sub Counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units All Sub Counties 1,850 households BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Technical officers 1-3 months All Sub Counties Roof Water harvesting structures All Sub Counties Institutions BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Ksh. 3M - 1-3 months All Sub Counties Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 4 Sub counties community water supplies. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-3 months All Sub Counties Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision All Sub Counties 4 Sub counties BCG, NG, RCS Ksh. 1M 1-3 months All Sub Counties Capacity building on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection All Sub Counties BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, Ksh. 1M 1-3 months All Sub Counties Drilling and Equipping of strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Construction and Rehabilitation of potential Low Cost Water Supplies Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Construction of four (4) earth dams for domestic and irrigation water use Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1-5 years All Sub Counties Capacity building on Wash Water managementResourc es Mobilization Conflict resolution and management and Catchment protection Across the County BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, Ksh. 5M 1-5 years County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Health and Nutrition County Map hot sport affected area August to Dec 2018 East Pokot Scale up IMAM Surge Hot spots WVK, MOH December County Nutrition Surveillance 45 hotspots 27,000 AFYA UZAZI MOH, WVK 3 months County Health and Nutrition education at Community level County wide 10,000 UNICEF AFYA UZAZI 3 months Vitamin A Supplementation County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK December Supplementation County wide 132,000 Health Services December Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County wide 7,362 WVKUNICEF and WPP December MIYCN E Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) County wide 105,321 MOH, WVK Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women County wide 26,596 MOH, WVK December SMART Survey Countywide December - Jan, 2019 Deworming County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK Sept.2018-r Education Baringo Central IGAS Educational learning Activities Salawa zone 1,900 Livestock, Fisheries , Irrigation, Education Parents Labour Long Term 5 years Baringo Central Green house Kabasis and Timboiywo primary MOA,MOE, BOM, ENV. Labour Technical skill 5 years County Intervention Wards No. of Proposed Implementers Available Resources Frame Baringo Central Environmental Conservation Tenges BPrimary School Labour Technical Skill 5 years",
        "Baringo_County_LRA_2019.pdf": "Page 1 of 30 BARINGO COUNTY 2019 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and Baringo County Steering Group July 2019 1 Lillian K. Marita (Ministry of Health) and Shamton Waruru (National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) Page 2 of 30 The 2019 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) together with the technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance for the long rains was near normal to normal, high food prices, livestock diseases and incidences of resource-based conflicts were the main food insecurity drivers. Food is currently available in the households particularly in the mixed farming livelihood zone as the 42 percent of the food stocks held in the county are largely in this livelihood. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by the good body condition of livestock and milk is available though below normal in the pastoral livelihood zones. Currently, households in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones have access to food. Despite the increase in maize prices by 19 percent, goat prices have also increased by 15 percent when compared to the long- term averages. Consequently, the terms of trade are within the seasonal averages. Markets functions were normal and are well provisioned with food largely from other counties except for Loruk market where no activities are going on due to tension and fear of insecurity. Distances to water sources for domestic consumption have remained within seasonal norms in all livelihood zones except a slight increase noted in the pastoral livelihood. Water consumption has reduced across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, households are consuming 10-15 litres per person per day while those in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are consuming more than 15 litres per person per day. Hand-washing and water treatment across the livelihood zones is minimal at less than 10 percent for each of the indicators and as such are affecting the utilization pillar of food security. National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) surveillance data indicated that households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption as at July 2019 were 60.7, 34.5 and 4.9 percent respectively. The households who were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies were 17.2 percent and the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used Stressed and Crisis coping strategies respectively. Regarding livelihood change, there were 48.5 percent not employing any coping strategy while another 39.9 and 11.2 percent were using Stressed and emergency coping strategies respectively. The Nutrition status is Serious in Baringo North and South where the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate was 9.3 percent ad it was Critical, in Tiaty Sub county which had GAM rate of 20.9 percent. There were no unusual deaths reported and thus the Under Five Mortality Rate and the Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) were considered to be below the emergency cut offs. Baringo County is therefore classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the agro pastoral, NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty Sub-county. Page 3 of 30 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 4 County background .......................................................................................................... 4 Methodology and approach .............................................................................................. 4 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................ 5 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 5 InsecurityConflict ............................................................................................................ 5 Other shocks and hazards ................................................................................................. 5 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY....................... 5 Availability ....................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.1 Crops Production .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereals stock ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 7 Access............................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Market operations ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade ............................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................... 13 3.2.4 Water access and availability ..................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................... 16 Utilization ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .......................................................... 17 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ....................................................................... 18 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................... 19 Trends of key food security indicators ........................................................................... 19 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES ......................................................................................... 20 Education ........................................................................................................................ 20 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS .................................................................................. 21 Prognosis Assumptions .................................................................................................. 21 Food security Outlook (August-October) ...................................................................... 21 Food security Outlook (November - January)................................................................ 22 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS .................................................................... 22 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 22 Interventions ................................................................................................................... 24 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................ 24 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions ...................................................................................... 27 Page 4 of 30 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The area of the county is approximated 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) and a population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projection). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely:- Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihoods in the county which include, mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and variable high food prices and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Methodology and approach The food and nutrition security assessment exercise is usually conducted twice a year to assess the impact of long and short rains on the livelihoods and as such develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis. Primary and secondary data is used in the assessment process. Primary data is collected from the community in sample sites that would be representative of the four main livelihood zones. The data was collected through semi structured focus group discussions, key informant and market interviews. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was then collated, analyzed and triangulated and analysis was by livelihood zones. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were used to do the classification of the severity and identify the possible causes of food insecurity. The assessment exercise was conducted by a multisectoral and multi agency team comprising of lead team from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment in the county was done from 15th to 19th July, 2019. Pastoral Irrigard Cropping Mixed Farming Figure 1: Proportion of Population per Livelihood Page 5 of 30 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 3.1.11 Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the 3rd dekad of April compared to 3rd dekad of March normally. A total of 107.8 mm of rainfall was received compared to 297.4 mm normally. Majority of the county received 75-90 percent of normal with the southern parts of county particularly Mogotio and Eldama Ravine Sub County receiving near normal to normal rains of 90-110 percent together with some parts of Tiaty Sub County. Rains were erratic temporally and spatially they were unevenly distributed. The highest amount of rain was received in the 3rd dekad of April, thereafter rains were depressed. Trends of the vegetation cover index were below normal until the 1st dekad of July when it became above normal as a result of rains received in the month of May through June. 2.2 InsecurityConflict There were insecurity incidences in Kasiela area Baringo South Sub County where cattle were stolen. Tensions are also high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. The said tension has resulted in limiting access in Loruk area as the market is not optimally functional. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Livestock diseases were reported and specifically Camel disease known as Haemorrhagic septicaemia that led to the death of an estimated 200 camels in Tiaty Sub County. New Castle disease was also reported in the same sub county and led to the loss of 5000 poultry. Maize crop was affected by fall army worm as in 20 percent of the area planted however, measures have already been taken. 2.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Availability Pasture and browse are currently available in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihoods while pasture is below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone. The available forage is expected to last until and extend into the next short rains season which starts in October. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zone but is fair in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk is available however, in the pastoral livelihood zones it was largely from camels. Households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have 55 percent of maize stocks. Supply of food stuffs in the markets are normal across the livelihoods and as such food is available in the county. Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a percent of normal in Baringo County Page 6 of 30 3.1.1 Crops Production The long rains season in Baringo county is significant as the county is dependent it. The main crops grown in the county under rain fed in the mixed farming livelihood zone are maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Maize, beans and finger millet are the main crops in both the agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones. In addition to maize, tomatoes and watermelons are grown under irrigation and each contributes to 90 percent of cash income and 10 percent of food. Maize in the agro pastoral, mixed farming and the irrigated cropping livelihood zones contributes to 90, 60 and 20 percent food while it contributes to 10, 40 and 80 percent of cash income respectively. Cowpeas, finger millet, and beans contribute to 40 percent of cash income and 60 percent of food in the agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 1: Acreage and Crop production under Rain fed in Baringo County Area Planted (Ha) Production (90 kg bags) 2019 Long rains Long Term Average (5 year) Long rains 2019 Long rains ProjectedActual Average (5 year) Long rains Maize 38,172 41,133 900,550 1,017,295 Beans 17,066 19,421 154,812 222,323 Finger millet 6,402 5,220 41,513 34,325 Area planted under rain-fed for maize and beans was 93 and 88 percent of the long term average respectively while that for finger millet was 12 percent above the long term average. The maize crop is at various stages ranging from weeding to tasseling as households planted at different times as a result of delayed onset of rains which also varied across the livelihood zones. Maize is projected to be 88 percent of the long term average while that for the beans is projected to be 69 percent of the long term average. The decrease in production is attributed to the late onset of the long rains as a result of which farmers planted in different times and thus some crop yield will be reduced. Finger millet production is likely to be 20 percent above the long term average. The increase in production for finger millet is due to the increase in the acreage planted and provision of certified seeds. Table 2: Acreage and Production under Irrigation in Baringo County Area Planted (Ha) Production (90 kg bags) 2019 Long rains Long Term Average (5 year) Long rains 2019 Long rains ProjectedActual Average (5 year) Long rains Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melon Cow peas Page 7 of 30 Seed Maize 78,052 57,150 Crop farming under irrigation is done at Barwesa area and is largely for income, which fruits and vegetables as shown in Table 2. The maize grown is harvested while green as a source of income however, a large proportion of land is also put under seed maize. The acreage for maize and seed maize increased and was 36 and 34 percent above the long term average respectively. Area put under tomatoes reduced and was 70 percent of the long term average. Maize production increased and was more than three times of the long term averages while that for tomatoes reduced by 20 percent. The reduction in tomatoes was attributed to pests and diseases. Seed maize increased and is 30 percent above the short term average. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. 3.1.2 Cereals stock Table 23: Cereal Stocks in Baringo County Commodity Maize Millet Sorghum Current Current Current Farmers 90,878 164,600 1,324 1,646 Traders 30,951 38,135 Millers 25,668 16,948 Food AidNCPB 19,929 39,400 2,319 Total 167,426 259,083 Maize stocks in the county are 65 percent of the long term average. The current maize stocks are from the previous harvest as the crop in the farms is due for harvest as from August. The households hold 55 percent of the long term average while traders have 81 percent of the stocks they would normally hold. Millers on the other hand have above average stocks by 51 percent above the long term average while National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) have half of the stocks when compared to the long term average. The millet stocks being held by the households and the traders were 80 and 90 percent of the long term averages respectively. The sorghum stocks held by the households were low at 40 percent of the long term average while the traders had 86 percent of the long term average. Overall, food is currently available in the county and the stocks are likely to last 2-3 months compared to 3-4 months normally. 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. Goats contribute 60 percent of the household income in the agro pastoral livelihood zone while sheep, cattle and chickens contribute to 25, 14 and percent respectively. In the irrigated livelihood zone, the livestock reared are goats, sheep and cattle. In this livelihood zone, goats and sheep contribute to 65 and 15percent of household income respectively. In terms of food, goats contribute to 10 percent while the chicken and cattle contribute to 25 and 60 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cattle contribute to 70 percent of the household income with goats and chicken contributing 15 and 10 percent respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the shoats (goats and sheep) give the highest proportion to income where goats contribute to 60 percent of the income and sheep contribute to 30 percent. Goats contribute another 60 percent to food in this livelihood zone. Page 8 of 30 Table 3: Contribution of Livestock Production to Food and Income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and browse situation The pasture condition is good in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to good in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The browse condition is good across all livelihood zones. The forage quality is fair to good in mixed farming livelihood zones but fair in the other three livelihood zones of the county. Pasture is expected to last 1.5-3 months as compared to normal 3-4 months; with only pastoral zones having limited of access due to insecurity. Areas with access limitation to forage include Mukutani, Arabal, Kalabata, Saimo soi and Kapedo. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition in Baringo County Livelihood Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Current Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Insecurity tensions Insecurity tensions Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The livestock body condition for all livestock species is good in mixed farming livelihood zones, fair to good in irrigated cropping and good in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The current body conditions are attributed to fair quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain with the positive forecast by Kenya Metrological Department indicating continuation of the off season rainfall. The livestock body condition may lead to livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Page 9 of 30 Table 54: Livestock body condition od Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Tropical livestock units (Tropical Livestock Units) and birth rates The present TLUs are three in poor households and 4.7 in the medium households (Table 5). There was slight decrease in TLUs as compared to normal as a result of delay in the kidding and lambing as a result of the experienced dry season as from March to May. The general birth rates were 2.5 across all livelihood zones. The current birth rate is low attributed to delayed conception as a result of previous poor performance of the rains that led to poor body condition. The deviations were due to low levels of forage and livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. The highest birth rates however, were reported in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units for Baringo County Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Current Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Milk Production and consumption The milk availability slightly increased with improvement of forage condition and reduction in trekking distance. The increases resulted in decrease of milk prices from Ksh.60 to Ksh. 50 in mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and from Ksh. 90 to Ksh. 60 in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk that is available in the pastoral livelihood zones is sourced from the mixed farming zones. Milk consumption increased to 1-2 litres in the period under review compared to what was reported during the short rains and largely near normal in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro pastoral livelihood zones. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the milk consumption is 50 percent of normal. Page 10 of 30 Table 7: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) Milk consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KSh.) Current Current Current Mixed farming 40-50 Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities The only reported migrations were within the county, where in Baringo North at Saimo soi and in Tiaty, livestock movements were reported and the animals are currently in Silale, Paka, Korossi hills and Mallaso. There were diseases reported in the county as indicated in the table 8. The disease occurrences were in the normal ranges. The mortality rates were at two percent across the livelihoods except in the pastoral-all species livelihood zones where mortality was 2.5 percent. The camels had three percent mortality rate due to eruption of Hemorrhagic septicaemia. Disease surveillance is ongoing in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 8: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central New Castle Disease Across the sub county Poultry 5,000 Vaccinations conducted in farms Across the subcounty Goats Endemic Few cases reported Sheep goats Tiaty CCPP, PPR Across the subcounty Goats and Sheep Endemic Planned Vaccinations Haemorrhagic septicaemia Across the subcounty Camels Planning for drug procurement then treatment Cattle camels Planned Vaccinations Mogotio Majimoto, Kamar, Simotwe, Sinende, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Lembus Mogotio, Eminining, Koibos, Goats Endemic Vaccination done Few areas Sheep and goats Planned Vaccinations Re-current Cattle Blanthrax Cattle Vaccination done Eldama Ravine Plant poisoning Majimazuri, Mumberes Vaccination done Abortions Ravine ward cases reported Vaccination done Ravine,Perkerra,L.kwen cases reported Vaccination done Blanthrax Sub-county Cattle 20,067 cattle Page 11 of 30 county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations) Rabies Ravine Cases reported. No deaths Baringo south Kapkuikui and Loboi Goats No deaths Treatment of affected stock Sheep goat pox Kimalel Shoats Vaccination Enterotoxaemia Kimorok Sheep and goats 1,000 Goats Heart water EwalelSoi, Kimalel ,KimondisBekibon, Kiserian Goats Awareness prevention Castle Disease Marigat Poultry No vaccinations Baringo North Across the subcounty (Endemic) Goats 20 goats Endemic PPR ,FMD, Red Water, LSD and Mange Saimo Soi, Barwessa Shoats, cattle 16 goats Vaccinations against PPR are on going Enterotoxaemia Sibilo Cattle 20 cattle Cases treated Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 50-70 percent but are still being recharged with the continued rains. The trekking distance decreased from 4-13 as compared to 4-10 in the last season. The watering frequency increased across all livelihood zones. The above dynamics have influenced positively; livestock body condition, milk production and also livestock prices. There was access limitation in the lakes due to crocodile hazards. Table 95: Water for Livestock in Baringo County Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Current Current Current Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers, streams Streams, water pans, Boreholes 2-3 months 3 months Page 12 of 30 Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Current Current Current Pastoral Bore- holes, water pans, rivers Water- pans, Bore-holes 2 months 2 months 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. There has been no market disruption at all markets in the county. Market supply for food commodities is mostly from outside the County which is normal for this time of the year. The main food stuffs being traded are maize, beans and vegetables. Supply of food items were normal across the livelihood zones. Supply of livestock were normal across the livelihood zones except in Loruk attributed to tensions and unwillingness to sell. Traded volumes for livestock were below normal in some markets while they were normal in Marigat, Barwesa, Nginyang and Amaya 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade Maize price The average price for a kilogram of maize in the county as at July, 2019 was Ksh. 56. The current price was nine percent above the price recorded in June 2019 and was 19 percent above the long term average of 2014-2018 (Figure 3). The price for July was 33 percent above the price recorded at the same time last year. The highest prices of Ksh.60 per kilogramme of maize were reported in the pastoral- all species livelihood zone while the lowest were recorded in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.42 per kilogramme. Maize prices have been on an upward trend as from February 2019 and remained below the long term averages recorded in the same period until May 2019 when the prices got above the long term averages (Figure 3). The increasing price was attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. The prices are likely to reduce slightly but remain above the long term averages for the next three months. Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize Prices in Baringo County Page 13 of 30 Goat price The price of a medium sized goat as at July 2019 had increased and was Ksh. 2564 compared to Ksh. 2285 reported in June 2019. The current price is 15 percent above the five year average of 2014-2018 and 14 percent lower than what was reported in the same time in 2018 (Figure 4). The trend of the prices was on a downward trend as from January however, as from July the prices picked an upward trend. The prices have been above or comparable to the long term averages in the period January to July. The decrease in prices was attributed to the deterioration of the body condition due to the delay in the onset of the long rains. The goat prices are likely to follow the normal trend remaining within the seasonal five year long term averages. There is likelihood of prices to slightly increase as from August for the next three months. Terms of trade The current terms of trade improved and were 12 percent above those reported in June 2019 although there percent below to the long term average. Currently, the sale of a goat can be exchanged for 46 kilograms of maize (Figure 5). The current terms of trade were 34 percent lower compared to those reported at a similar time last year where the sale of one goat could be exchanged for 70 kilograms of maize. The trend of the terms of trade have been on a downward trend since February 2019 although they remained above the long term average until May when they became comparable to the long term average (Figure 5). The trend could be attributed to the decrease in goat prices with a noted increase in maize prices across the livelihoods. The terms of trade are likely to remain stable in the next three months as no significant changes are expected in both the goat and maize prices. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones with livestock production including meat, milk, hides, skins and by products contributing to 69, 30 and 26 percent of cash income in the pastoral-all species, missed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, food crop production, contributes to 25 and 20 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cash crop production contributes to 15 percent of cash income while small businesses contribute to 10 percent. Additionally, in the agropastoral livelihood zone, poultry production contributes to 15 percent. Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat Prices in Baringo County Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County Page 14 of 30 Other current sources of income for the households are charcoal burning and casual labour as noted during the community interviews. Currently, 24, 23 and 21 percent of the households are getting their income from the sale of livestock, casual labour, sale of crops respectively. 11percent of the households are getting their income from petty trading and another 10 percent from formal employment at (West Pokot SMART Survey, June, 2019) 3.2.4 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Normally, Water sources are mainly concentrated in mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones Communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Water pans in the pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty sub county, Saimo Soi ward, Kinyach, Chemoe, Barsemoi, Majimoto, Kamar, Mbechot, Kapkelelwa, Bekibon, Bartabwa were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally and the water is likely to last for one to two months. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 50 percent of their normal capacity. The water is expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Ward od zone Water Source (Three (3) major sources) Operational Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Duration water months of full Capacity Recharged Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral Bore Holes Months months stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Bh, Kirim Bh , Ngoron, Sosionde , Silonga Water 1-2 Months Months 50 - 60 Springs 3 - 4 Months Months 30 - 40 Pastoral Bore Holes Months months stable Kadokoi, Sewa(Kisanana ward), Kimorok BH Water 1-2 Months Months 50 - 60 Springs 3-4Months months 30 - 40 Mixed Farming Bore Holes Months months stable Springs Months Months 50 - 60 Rivers Months Months 40 - 50 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 90 -100 Shallow Wells 3-4months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Months stable Page 15 of 30 Distance to water sources and waiting time According to the SMART survey findings, In Tiaty subcounty, the average distances to domestic water sources were varied with 34. 6 percent doing less than half a kilometer and another 48 percent doing 0.5- 2 kilometers. In Baringo North and South sub counties, majority of the households (58.7 percent) were covering less than 0.5 kilometers and another 35.3 percent covering more than 0.5- 2 kilometers to less than two kilometers. The remaining six percent reported to be covering more than two kilometers. The distances in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones remained within the seasonal norms of 0.5-1.5 kilometers. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone is between 3 - 5 minutes which is above normal while in pastoral and agro - pastoral areas it was between 5 and 7 minutes. Waiting time varied with the households that were queuing for less than 30 minutes being 91.3 percent, 30-60 minutes were 6.5 percent and more than 60 minutes, 2.2 percent in Tiaty Sub County. In Baringo North and South sub-county, the proportion of households who were queuing for less than 30 minutes were 68.9 percent; 30 to 60 minutes, 15.6percent and above 60 minutes were 15.6 percent. Cost of water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh. 3 and 5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in the irrigated cropping and more than 20 litres in the mixed farming livelihood zone. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zone, consumption remained normal at 10-15 litres per person per day except for some hotspots experiencing water shortages in Mogotio Sub County particularly in Kapyemit, Mugurin, Kapnosigei, Eldebes, Kapkitur, Kamar, Kitecho, Molok, Maji Moto and Sirwa areas. In the pastoral livelihood zones consumption reduced and is currently 8-10 litres per person per day compared to the normal 10-15 litres per person per day. Households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like Typhoid, Amoeba, diarrhea and Malaria. There was reported suspected water contamination following reports that some flower farms that are discharging their effluents directly into river Tilatil. livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3 4 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 10-15 Agro Pastoral 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 10-15 10-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 0.5- 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15-20 15-20 Page 16 of 30 3.2.5 Food Consumption According to the NDMA Early Warning Bulletin, as at July, 2019, the proportions of households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores in the county 60.7, percent respectively. In the irrigated cropping livelihood zone, all the households were having acceptable food consumption scores. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households with acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores were 51.7, 44.8 and 3.4 percent respectively and had reduced from 93 percent who were reported to have acceptable food consumption scores in June (Figure 6). In the pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores had reduced to 48. 9 compared to 55.6 percent reported in June. Those having borderline and poor food consumption scores in this livelihood were 44.5 percent compared to 35.5 percent reported in June, 2019. The proportion of households who were having poor food consumption scores was 6.7 percent. In Baringo County, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption score reduced from 80 percent reported in January during the short rains assessment to the current 60.7 percent while that for households having borderline food consumption scores increased from 17 to 34.5 percent. A small proportion of the households (17.2 percent) were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies while the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used stressed and crisis coping strategies. 70, 31.8 and 3.4 percent were employing Stressed coping strategies in the irrigated cropping, pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Those not employing any coping mechanisms were 30 and 20.7 percent in the irrigated cropping and the pastoral livelihood zones respectively. It was noted that majority of the households (96.6 percent) in the agro pastoral livelihood zone were employing crisis strategies. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Based on NDMA data, the mean coping strategy index (CSI) for the county in July, 2019 was 14.3 and was comparable to what was reported in June however, it reduced from 16.3 reported in May, 2019. When compared to the same time last year, the coping strategy index had reduced from 18.3. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the coping strategy index was 27 and 14.5 respectively. The lowest coping strategy index was reported in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 4.3 percent. According to data received from NDMA in July 2019, with regard to livelihood change, at the county level there were 48.5 not using coping strategies. Overall, the proportion of households employing Stressed and Crisis coping strategies were 39.9 and 11.2 percent respectively. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, none were using any coping mechanism while in the pastoral livelihood zone 41.3 and 0.6 were employing stressed and crisis coping strategies respectively. In the irrigated cropping livelihood zone 90 percent indicated not using any coping strategy while the remaining 10 percent were using Stressed coping strategies. Pastoral-all species Irrigated cropping Acceptable Borderline Figure 6: Food Consumption Scores per livelihood in Baringo County Page 17 of 30 According to the SMART survey preliminary results, 50 percent of the households reported employing food consumption related coping strategies in Baringo North and South sub Counties. In Tiaty Sub County, SMART survey results indicated that a proportion of 75 percent employed coping strategies. The CSI was 15.3 percent and is lower compared to 2018 similar time. The most frequently employed coping strategy across the livelihoods was restricting consumption by adults in order for the children to eat (SMART Survey, Baringo North and South and Tiaty). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns The most prevalent diseases in the county were upper respiratory tract infections, malaria and diarrhea in which according to the survey carried out in Tiaty, 15, 10 and eight percent of the children under fives respectively were reported to have had those illnesses in the two weeks prior to the survey (SMART survey, Tiaty, 2019. Morbidity trends for both the under fives and the general population from January to June 2019, remained within the seasonal norms when compared to the same period in 2018 and 2017 (Figure 7). Cases of dysentery reported in January to June 2019 increased by 50 percent and were 1403 cases compared to a total of 932 cases reported in the same period in 2018 and 829 cases in 2017. The increase in cases was attributed to water contamination as a result of a prolonged the dry period experienced in March through to May, 2019 and as such water sources were being utilized by both human and animals. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Based on DHIS data, the proportion of fully immunized children in the county between January and June 2019, was 70.1 percent and comparable to the same period in 2018 however, it was below the national target of 80 percent. Immunization coverage was highest in Marigat and Mogotio Sub counties standing at 92.0 and 91.3 percent respectively. All the other Sub counties had coverage below the national target and was particularly low in East Pokot and Tiaty sub Counties at 51.3 and 40.2 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 6: Immunization Coverage Per Subcounty Sub County Percent of Fully Immunized Child (FIC) Baringo Central Baringo North East Pokot Koibatek Marigat Mogotio Tiaty County Average Number of Cases Morbidity Trends for Under Fives Diarrhoea 2017 Diarrhoea 2018 Diarrhoea 2019 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2017 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2018 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2019 Figure 7: Morbidity trends for Under Fives in Baringo Page 18 of 30 Vitamin A coverage between January and June, 2019 for children aged 6-59 months was 59.8 percent compared to 50.0 percent reported during the same period in 2018 (DHIS data). The increase in the coverage was attributed to the Malezi Bora exercise that was done in May of 2019 coupled with the uninterrupted supply of Vitamin A supplements. Children aged 6-11 months who were supplemented in Jan to June 2019 were 70.1 percent while those aged 12- 59 months were 58.5 percent. According to the SMART survey done in Tiaty Subcounty in June 2019, Vitamin A supplementation coverage for 6-11 months was 40.8 percent while that for children aged 12-59 months were 40.2 percent for. Overall, the proportion of children aged 6-59 months who had received Vitamin A supplementation once were 40.3 percent (Figure.8). 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Meal consumption has remained normal across the livelihoods with households in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones consuming two meals per day and households in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone are consuming the normal three meals. Household dietary diversity information collected in Baringo North and South through the nutrition SMART survey, indicated that the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups are 61 percent, a decrease from 73.4 percent reported at a similar time last year. Those households consuming 3- 5 food groups was 37.7 percent compared to 23.3 percent in the same period in 2018. The households consuming 3 food groups was 1.3 percent in both years. In Tiaty Sub county, the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups (28.2 percent); 3-5 food groups (60.8 percent) and 3 food groups were 13 percent. Nutrition status has deteriorated in the Sub County which is pastoral livelihood as the proportion of those consuming more than five groups had reduced in June 2019 compared to 38.6 percent reported in 2018. The NDMA data indicated that the proportion of children under five years with MUAC (135mm) was 20.2 percent in July 2019 and was noted to be 46 percent above the long term averages of 2014- 2018. When compared to June 2018, the current proportion was 56 percent above however, this proportion had remained similar to what was reported in May 2018 (Figure 9). During the period January to June 2019, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) 135mm) showed an upward trend as from March and was above the long term averages as from May. The highest proportions of children at risk of 6-11 months 12-95months 6-69 months Baringo North South Tiaty Figure 8: Vitamin A supplementation by Age at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 9: Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition MUAC 135mm Page 19 of 30 malnutrition were reported in Kapenguria, Komolion and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones where 42.4, 32.4 and 31.7 percent respectively. The high malnutrition rates in these wards are largely due to alcoholism as a result there is poor infant and child care practices. The global acute malnutrition rate for Baringo North and South is 9.3 percent and severe acute malnutrition rate 2.3 percent (SMART survey Baringo North and South, June, 2019). The results indicate that there has been no significant change in the nutrition status when compared to a similar time last year when the GAM rate was 7.8 percent and thus it remains in the Serious Phase (IPC Acute Malnutrition Classification). In Tiaty Sub County, the global acute malnutrition status was 20.9 percent with a severe acute malnutrition rate of 3.5 percent. Based on the global acute malnutrition rates, there was a significant change in the nutrition status compared to the same time last year. The most likely cause of malnutrition are food insecurity coupled with poor infant and young children feeding practices and poor health seeking behaviour especially in pastoral livelihood zone. 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The main sources of water currently are sub surface water sources as evidenced by 52.3 percent who reported use of water from sub surface water. In Tiaty Sub County and Baringo North Sub Counties, 76.2 and 52.3 percent of the households respectively reported drawing water from the open sources. Water treatment was being done by a dismal 4.4 percent in Tiaty Sub County while 28.6 percent in Baringo North and South. The most common treatment method used in Baringo North and South was boiling (71.1 percent) while in Tiaty most of the households used pot filters (59.1 percent) (SMART Survey, June 2019). The low water treatment rates may be the cause of the water borne diseases reported in the community. Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South respectively. Those who used soap and water were 24.7 percent in Tiaty. In Baringo North and South, those who did hand washing using soap and water were 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 44.1 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.2 percent. Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 7: Food Security Trends in West Pokot County Indicator Short rains assessment, February, Long rains assessment, July, 2019 of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good to fair Agro Pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated Cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Fair to poor Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day) Agro Pastoral 12-15lpppd Agro Pastoral 10-15 litres per person per day Irrigated Cropping 20-25lppd Irrigated Cropping 20-25 litres per person per day Page 20 of 30 Indicator Short rains assessment, February, Long rains assessment, July, 2019 Pastoral- species 12-15 litres per person per day Irrigated 8-10 litres per person per day Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per person per day Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per person per day Price of maize (per kg) Ksh.36 Ksh. 55.7 Distance to grazing Mixed Farming 1-4kilometers Mixed Farming 1 Kilimetere Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral 1-2 kilometres Pastoral 4-13 kilometres Pastoral 3-4 kilometres Irrigated Cropping 1-4 kilometres Irrigated Cropping Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index Agro Pastoral-18.8 Pastoral-14.7 Irrigated Cropping-2.6 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-27 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-4.3 Food consumption score Acceptable 80 percent Acceptable Borderline 17 percent Borderline 3 percent 3.0 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1 Education 4.1.1 Enrolment In Early Childhood Development Centers, there were 25,621 boys and 25,699 girls in term one, while in term two there were 26,134 boys and 24,947 girls . This indicates an increase of 513 boys (2percent) in term two compared to term 1 while for the girls it shows a decrease of 752 (2.93percent) . Enrolment in term II was comparable to term I attributed to lack of feeding programmes, pastoral migration especially in Tiaty, long distances to schools and ill health. There were 2.3 percent more boys in term two compared to girls. In Primary School there were 74,420 boys and 70,034 girls in term I, while in term II there were 75,289 boys and 70,640 girls. The enrollment in primary remained relatively the same for both boys and girls. Currently, school meals programme by National government, faith based organizations and other well-wishers may have contributed to the retention noted in term II. Overall, there are 3.2 percent more boys compared to girls. In Secondary school, in term I, there were 22,674 boys and 22,757 girls while in term II there were 22,168 boys and 22, 895 girls. The number of boys increased by 2.2percent in term II compared to term 1 while for the girls remained relatively the same. There are 1.6 per cent more boys compared to girls in the secondary schools. 4.1.2 Participation and Retention On average monthly attendance in early childhood development Center was 16,000 pupils in the five months per day this shows a decrease due to lack of School Feeding programmes. In Primary 50,000 pupils were in school in the five months per day. This shows an increase due to food support from well-wishers especially in Tiaty. While in Secondary 21,000 students were in school in the five months per day. This shows a decrease due to early pregnancies and boda boda business. Generally there were minimal dropouts in term two compared to term one 2019 and this was reflected in terms of sickness, transfers and effects of long distance to school from their homes. Page 21 of 30 4.1.3 School meals programme There are two types of school meals programme in the county namely:-Regular School Meals Programme supporting 115 primary schools in Tiaty Sub County and Home Grown School Meals Programme in 336 primary Schools in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo Central. In total the interventions supports 80,704 beneficiaries (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). 336 Primary schools that are under HGSMP have not received food for Term two. Inter Sectoral links where available Few schools have access to water pipeline connected to boreholes, dam (Kirandich, Chemususu, Kimao, Bartabwa). Some schools do roof catchment water harvesting, however, some have water storage facilities but do not have gutters and the tanks have not been installed. Most school get their water from directly fetching water seasonal rivers, water pans, boreholes. Sanitation is not adequate in most schools as there are no adequate hand washing facilities and toilets are not adequate. Girls in all primary schools in the County receive sanitary towels from the office of National government through the affirmative action fund which has a direct positive impact on girls attendance in schools. School performance is affected by availability and access to food at the household level. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1 Prognosis Assumptions According to FEWS NETUSGS preliminary forecast, the short rains season (October - December 2019) are likely to be average with timely onset as at October. The county meteorological department indicates that there are likely to be above average rains in the county in the July and August season Based on the long term trends of prices (NDMA data), the staple food prices are expected to be stable and be on a downward trend but remain within the seasonal norms as maize harvests from seed maize are expected as from August while goat prices are likely to remain within the long term averages. Terms of trade are likely to remain low especially in the pastoral livelihood zone but remain within the seasonal normal precipitated by the changes in maize and goat prices as from August for the next three months. Based on analysis of the current forage condition and the expected rainfall, pasture and browse are likely to be available and last until the next season which starts in October. Based on trend analysis and the current availability of water, distances to water sources for livestock are expected to remain stable across the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains in October. Distances and waiting time at the water source for domestic consumption are expected to remain normal for the next three months. 5.2 Food security Outlook (August-October) Pasture and browse conditions in the county are likely to be good following the anticipated July- August rainfall and as such the livestock body condition is expected to improve across all livelihoods. Improved livestock productivity in terms of availability of milk and meat at household Page 22 of 30 level is likely to be witnessed following anticipated minimal migrations. Water availability and accessibility is expected to improve across the livelihoods and households are likely to consume more than 15 litres per person per day. In terms of food accessibility, it is likely that food is likely to be physically available in the markets and that the prices for maize which is the staple food are anticipated to remain stable following the anticipated harvest as from August. Livestock prices may increase as a result of good body condition of the livestock and thus the purchasing power of households is expected to remain favourable through the three months under review. Food consumption patterns are likely to be improve as food will be readily available and accessible during this time and as such the nutrition status for the children under fives is likely to improve. No significant changes are expected in the livelihood coping strategies. No significant changes are expected in the mortality rates for the children under five years of age and the general population. The food security situation is likely to improve and as such some of the households that are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected to move to NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) as from October 2019 5.3 Food security Outlook (November - January) Livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to remain above normal following the expected continued rains in the July- August rains that will sustain the good forage condition across the livelihoods. The average performance of the October-December rains is also likely to sutain the livestock productivity further leading to increased milk production making it available for consumption at the household level. Water resources are likely to be fully recharged and as such water is likely to be available and accessible to the households for domestic consumption. Staple food prices are anticipated to remain stable as livestock prices slightly improve as per the seasonal trends. Consequenty, terms of trade are expected to improve slightlyand remain favourable for the livestock farmers enabling households to have good household purchasing power and access to food until December. In January however, the prices are likely to come down as a result of oversupply in the market as households are likely to be selling their animals to meet other household needs such as school fees. The proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores are expected to increase following the available household stocks and favourable terms of trade. No significant changes are expected in the coping strategies and mortality rates. Nutrition status is likely to improve following availability of milk and other food at household level. More households that are currently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as at December 2019. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1 Conclusion 6.1.1 Phase classification The Phase Classification in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zone is None Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while the agro pastoral livelihood zone is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone particularly in Tiaty, it is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 6.1.2 Summary of Findings The long rains were cumulatively near normal however, temporal distribution was poor and spatial distribution was poor. Crop production is projected to be near normal with harvests from seed Page 23 of 30 maize expected as from August. In the pastoral livelihood zone, food availability in the markets is short termly below normal however, this is expected to change following the anticipated harvests from the irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Currently, households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have maize stocks sufficient to last for the next three months. Terms of trade are average in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihood zone but below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone thus households in this livelihood zone are having a challenge in financial accessibility despite the physical availability of food in the market. In areas of Loruk, in Baringo North however, both physical and financial access is a limiting factor as there are no market activities going on. Water availability, access and utilization is normal for the households in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones while consumption in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones is 10-15 litres per person per day a reduction from 15-20 litres per person per day. Livestock diseases reported in the county were endemic and thus are short-termly making households to be vulnerable by stressing the livelihoods. Food consumption patterns were good in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agropastoral livelihood zone as more than 80 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption scores. In the pastoral livelihood zone however, food consumption was borderline as more evidenced by the 35.3 percent who had borderline food consumption scores. Reduce coping strategy index indicated that households were employing stressed strategies and this is considered normal for time of the year. Nutrition status is still Serious in Baringo North and South based on weight for height z-scores while it is at Critical levels in Tiaty sub county in the pastoral livelihood zone. Utilization pillar is a challenge as evidenced by the low latrine coverage, poor sanitation practices and the low hygiene levels exhibited by the households. 6.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County Food security rank (Worst to Best) ( 1- Main food security threat (if any) Tiaty No pasture and browse Inadequate water availability Livestock diseases High malnutrition rates Poor sanitation and hygiene practices Baringo North Livestock Migrations and Livestock deaths Inadequate pasture and browse Resource based conflicts Erratic Rainfall Baringo South Water quality High malnutrition rates Insecurity Mogotio Good rainfall performance Water availability and accessibility High crop production Baringo Central Good purchasing power Water availability and accessibility Livelihood diversified Page 24 of 30 Eldama Ravine Food availability, access and utilization Good rainfall performance Milk production is high 6.2 Interventions 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions Food interventions There is regular school meals programme (RSMP) and home grown school meals programme (HGSM) in the county which benefits 80,704pupils (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). Food aid in all livelihood ones by the Government of Kenya and Kenya Red Cross Society (GOKKRCS). A total of 4,660 household were reached with maize- 88,248 kilogrammes (kgs), Beans- 38,000 kilogrammes (38.0 metric tonnes) and Cooking Oil- 540liters. Non-food interventions Intervention Specific Location No. of beneficiaries Implementa Frame Implementation stakeholders HEALTH SECTOR Female Micro nutrients supplementation (Vitamin A, Zinc) All health facilities, selected ECD community Health Units All health facilities. 3,067,000 84,200 85,545 Routine MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK AfyaUzazi. BCG(DHS). Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 8 health facilities in East Pokot. 52,600 54,892 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by, UNICEF and WVK. IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) All health facilities and community units 1,000,000 52,600 54,892 BCG(DHS) supported by AfyaUzazi. Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant and Lactating Women. All health facilities offering ANC services 500,000 30,944 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by WVK, UNICEF Deworming All health facilities ANC 200,000 33,683 Routine. BCG(DHS) supported by WVK, UNICEF AfyaUzazi AGRICULTURE SECTOR Integrated and sustainable food production systems All wards 20000 households July December Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Department of Water, WFP Page 25 of 30 Construction of grain store at Bartolimo Kabartonjo 1000 Households 20182020 Baringo County Department of Agriculture Provision of certified avocado seedlings 18 wards 5000 Households 20192020 State department of Irrigation and Baringo County Department of Agriculture NIB-Perkerra Control of FAW through sensitization and supply of demonstration Materials (Traps, pheromones, and chemical and spray) All Wards 20,000Households 20182020 Baringo County Department of Agriculture Plant Protection services department (PPSD) Agribusiness Empowerment project All wards 90 youth groups in Agribusiness WFP, Baringo County Government Soil and water management- RLACC Barwessa Bartabwa wards 2 yrs MOALFMOE Farm Ponds Development All wards 10000 HH Continuous State Department of Irrigation, County Government Of Baringo Rehabilitation of Kiboi irrigation scheme and construction of Kaptiony- Kiboi dam Barwessa 5years MOALF Distribution of 38,000 coffee seedlings Kabarnet, Kapropita, Ewalelchapchap, Sacho, Tenges, Mogotio, Koibatek, Mochongoi 2 Million 2018-2019 State department of crops development, Baringo county Department of Agriculture LIVESTOCK SECTOR Provision of Sahiwal bulls for upgrading purposes-10 bulls county-wise 1,200HH Jul2019-Jul Disease control (vaccinations against FMD, CPP, Blanthrax, PPR County-wise PPR-750,000 FMD-100,000 58,077 shoats Aug,2019 MOALF, RPLRP Provision of pasture seeds (1 Ton) Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio 200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, Provision of fencing Material to PFS (6) Baringo South Baringo Central 200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, Page 26 of 30 Mogotio RPLRP Provision of incubators to groups and day old chicks to groups Baringo South Baringo Central Mogotio 10,200HH Jul, 2019 MOALF, RPLRP WATER Water trucking Institutions 1.5 M 30 Institutions 1 -3 Months BCG, GDC, WV, BH rehabilitation Community Water supplies 3580HH 1 3 Months BCG, NG, RCS, ACTED, ACTIONAID, GDC Water Boozer servicing and repair 3 Sub counties County 1 3 Months BCG, NG, NDMA Capacity building on water management County 3 Sub counties 1 3 Months KRCS, WV, ACTED, ACTIONAID, WFP, UNCEF Water supplies Rehabilitation and upgrading County 2160 HH 1 6 Months BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA Rehabilitation of BHs County 1670 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA Drilling and Equipping of County 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection County 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA EDUCATION SECTOR Dairy Production Kaptara Primary school 200,000 350 (195 Boys, 155 girls) 2019-2020 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Mango production Kaptara Primary school 500,000 450 (195 Boys, 155 girls) 2019-2024 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Hay Production Loruk Primary School 50,000 500 ( Boys 260, 240 girls) 2019-2022 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Apiculture Chepnyorgin Primary 30,000 290 (150 Boys, 140 girls) 2019-2025 Board of management Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of education Page 27 of 30 Remarks: Resources required, Available resources, Contribution of each stakeholder 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions Food interventions Sub county Population Proposed Percentage of people in need Remarks Modality ( Wards) Tiaty 168,703 20-25 Baringo North 118,797 10-15 Baringo South 106,722 10-15 Mogotio 60,962 5-10 Baringo Central 98,918 Eldama Ravine 149,594 Non-food interventions County Ward Intervention beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame HEALTH SECTOR Mass screening 80 sites BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 240,000 July-Oct Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat mogotio Integrated medical outreaches hotspot sites BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission July-Oct Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, KRCS, WVK 1.48M 480,000 July-Oct AGRICULTURE SECTOR Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers 8000HH -MOALF -Funds to fertilizers -technical personnel train farmers cost: 50 M -technical personnel train farmers 1 year Water Harvesting for household security- Farm ponds and equipping existing 10000HH Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Irrigation, Funds, Technical personnel Cost:1bn Technical personnel 2018- Page 28 of 30 irrigation schemes Baringo County Government, Development partners Harvest technologies promotion 20,000HH MOALFI, Baringo County Government and stakeholders Funds cost: 10m Technical staff One year Support youth engagement Agribusiness project youth groups Agribusiness County Government of Baringo Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, WFP, Funds 24m Technical officers December Control through sensitization supply demonstration Materials and training (Traps, pheromones, chemical sprayers) Households Baringo County Government-Department of Agriculture Plant Protection services department(PPSD) 3Million Technical Officers July- December LIVESTOCK SECTOR BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Provision of pasture seeds 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. Govt.(RPLRP) Dec, 2019 Mogotio, Marigat(Blue tongue) areas (FMD) Disease control(vaccinations against, RVF,CCPP Disease surveillance Countywide National government Development partners Dec, 2019 -Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio 41,500 HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,2012 county harvesting baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Dec,2012 WATER SECTOR Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units 2640HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Page 29 of 30 Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Roof Water harvesting structures 10,000ltrs PVC tanks Vulnerable Institutions Communities. BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, FINN CHURCH months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Stock piling of Fast- Moving Spares community water supplies 1200HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Water Bowser servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision counties BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, months Community Water Supplies Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Capacity building on Water Management Catchment protection Whole county BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, CIM months Across livelihoods in vulnerable Wards Drilling and Equipping of 12 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas 2300HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, ACTED, ACTION AID, ADS, CIM 1 - 5 yrs Community Water Supplies in Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Construction Rehabilitation of 10 potential water supplies 3800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs Page 30 of 30 Potential sites within county serve the low lands Construction of 4Small dams for domestic and irrigation water use 12,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 -5Yrs Community Water Supplies in Pastoral, Pastoral and Marginal mixed farming Zones Capacity building on Wash Water managementResources Mobilization Conflict resolution management Catchment protection 1600HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs EDUCATION SECTOR County wide Roof water harvesting in schools schools pupils students) Ministry water, Ministry of Education. NDMA , Rift valley water works development Authority 6,760,000 1,300,000 2019- County wide School meals programme in primary schools 336 schools (80,704 pupils ) Ministry Education 66,580,800 County wide School meals nutrition programme in 51,320 (25,621 boys, 25,699 girls) Ministry Education, County government, County educational vocational training department 92,376,000 16,000,0002019-",
        "Baringo_LRA_2024.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2024 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Technical Steering Group (CSG)1 July 2024 1Leah Sang, Losenge Koolic, Esther Barasa (NDMA),Ann Kimwa (Health), Lily Rotich (Livestock), Susan Mitei (Education), Wesley Chemjor (Agriculture), Henry Nyamweya (Water), Fridah Limo (DRM) and Irene Maasai (Children Proetcion). Page i of 25 Executive Summary The 2024 long rains food and nutrition assessment was conducted by Baringo County sector working groups with visual support from Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment covered four main livelihood zones namely Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Irrigated Cropping and Mixed farming. The main objective was to assess the impact of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season considering other shocks and hazards and provide recommended interventions for response. Several parts of the county generally received above average rainfall of about 126 140 percent of the normal during the 2024 MAM season. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandits were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way or another by the recent flood occurrences causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. Acreage under irish potatoes increased by 117 percent while area under maize, beans and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The projected yields for maize and beans are likely to decline by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent respectively. Area under irrigated crops significantly increased due to sufficient water for irrigation. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total of 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in 93 hay stores, which have a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households in Tiaty had poor food consumption, while 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns. Additionally, 11 - 13.7 percent of households had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. The indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Page ii of 25 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... i 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm ............................................................................................................ 3 3.1.1 Crop Production ........................................................................................................... 3 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 5 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning .................................................................................... 9 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 12 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns ............................................................................ 14 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity.................................................................. 15 5.3.1 Food Interventions ...................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Page 1 of 25 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population 749,000 persons (2024 projections Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided seven sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed, Mixed farming-Horticulture and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages, floods and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Methodology, Objective and Approach KFSSG normally conducts bi-annual food and nutrition security assessment in the 23 ASAL counties in Kenya. The 2024 long rains food and nutrition security assessment was conducted in July 2024 with main objective being to assess the impact of March to May 2024 rainfall performance, determine the impacts of other shocks and hazards in Baringo County and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The assessment adopted multiagency and multisector approach. The assessment process used both qualitative and quantitative survey methods in data and information acquisition. Desktop review from various reports, Kenya Health Information System (KHIS), SMART Survey and checklists were used to gather secondary data while key informants, focus group discussion and observation were used to collect primary data. The process commenced with an initial County Steering Group (CSG) meeting held 9th July 2024, followed by a field transect drive across the county on 10th and 11th July 2024. The KFSSG and technical CSG members analyzed both quantitative and qualitative data collected from various sources. Based on the convergence of evidence, the food security and nutrition report for the county including possible recommendations and a 6-month food security prognosis was produced. The preliminary findings of the assessment were presented to the CSG on Thursday, 19th July 2024 at Chamastar Hotel, Kabarnet in Baringo County. Marginal Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Pastoral Agro Pastoral Figure 1: Population Proportion Per Livelihood Zone Page 2 of 25 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The 2024 March-April-May rainfall season had timely onset occurring during the third dekad of March 2024. amounts characterized with storm water especially in the third dekad of April and first dekad of May 2024. Enhanced rainfall, above normal levels (126 140 percent of the normal), was observed in several parts of the county. Localized areas in Baringo North, Baringo South, and Tiaty recorded normal rainfall (111 125 percent of the normal) based on satellite imagery from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), as shown in Figure 2. Spatial distribution was even and frequency was good across the livelihood zones of the county. Cessation was earlier than normal which was experienced during the first dekad of May 2024 as opposed to normally third dekad of May. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Banditry attacks and cattle rustling were experienced during the season in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wards in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. The conflicts have led to closure of schools, limited access to grazing fields, crop farms and even loss of lives and livelihoods. Subsequently, these events have negatively affected food security in hotspot areas. In response, Operation Maliza Uhalifu, a joint security operation involving the National Police Service and Kenya Defense Forces personnel has been ongoing in disturbed areas alongside community peace dialogues supported by the government and partners. 2.3 Floods and Flash Floods Heavy downpours were experienced, resulting in the overflow of rivers such as Molo, Perkera, Kerio, Wasekes, Olarabal, Nginyang, Emining, and Endao. Moreover, due to the sustained increase and rise in water levels from lake Baringo and 94, Baringo county has experienced serious flooding. Baringo County floods assessment report conducted in May 2024 revealed that 2,352 households were affected by the flooding situation. Approximately 1,955 households were completely displaced, with 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households, while 397 households partially affected. A total of Figure 2: Rainfall Performance (percentage) Page 3 of 25 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way of another by the recent flood occurrences, causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Household productive assets had been submerged in Baringo South, especially areas of Saruni, Ntepes, Loldama, Lemargwenyi, Lkeper, Ldarpoi, Naregare, Maasai, Kailer, Eldume, Leswaa, Sitaan, Ilpunyaki, Rine, Meisori, Kabikoki, Salabani, Murda, Sororwo, Longewan, Torkole, Rugus, Nosukuro, Nguraa, Iti. Floods affected 2,250 of acres of maize, water melon, onions and tomatoes. The flooding destroyed six (6) foot bridges, four (4) culvertsslaps, 31 road networks and 12 drainage works. 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Acreage under rainfed and irrigated crops was near normal to above average. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average. Farmers have maize stock which are below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. Conserved pasture in form of hay in stores is also below the total storage capacity. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. 3.1.1 Crop Production The county is dependent on long rains season for rainfed crop production and even for irrigation. The main food crops grown in the county include maize, beans, millet, potatoes, cowpeas, and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (coffee, cotton, macadamia, and pyrethrum). In the Agro-pastoral Zone, maize contributes 90 percent, beans contribute 85 percent, and finger millet contributes 60 percent to food crop production. In contrast, in the Irrigated Zone, tomatoes, watermelons, and seed maize each contribute 90 percent to income (Table 1). Table 1: Contribution of Crops to Income and Food Livelihood Zone Income Agro-pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Seed maize Page 4 of 25 Rain-fed Crop Production Acreage planted for Irish potatoes increased by 117 percent attributed to more investor supporting Irish potatoes production while area under maize, bean and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The early onset of the rains coupled with heavy downpour made ploughing difficult. The most affected sub-counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Central, South and Tiaty. The projected yields for maize and beans are lower by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent compared to the long-term average production during the short rains season respectively. The decrease is attributed to heavy downpour in mid-April which affected planted crops by nutrient leaching hence affecting crop growth in all parts of the county. In addition, fall army worm affected 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county, this was because of the dry spell. However, the expected yields for irish potatoes and sorghum is projected to be higher by 98.2 percent and 25.7 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 2: Rain-fed Crop Production Area planted during 2024 Long rains season (Ha) Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season 2024 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 40,465 39,618 801,540 992,950 Beans 20,894 20,244 93,068 161,952 Sorghum 1,690 1,685 25,425 20,220 Irish Potatoes 3,900 1,800 354,820 179,000 Irrigated Crop Production The area planted for irrigated crops increased for various crops, for instance, maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize increased by 650, 217, 168 and 3.4 percent respectively. The increase in acreage planted is attributed to sufficient water for irrigation coupled with expansion of irrigation schemes in Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The yields are expected to increase by 591, 217, 168 and 16.4 percent for maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize respectively (Table 3). About 80-90 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was utilized due to high water volumes in the rivers. Men are the income earners from the crops, while women and youth managed the crops. Table 3:Irrigated Crop Production planted during Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during rains season rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average years) production during rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 29,900 4,325 Tomatoes 6,500 2,050 Water melons 3,600 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 128,250 110,200 3.1.2 Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by all actor in the county are currently 36 percent lower than the long-term average. Farmers maize stock are 49 percent below the long-term average. The bulk of the stock is Page 5 of 25 held in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 60 percent, where few farmers did not dispose of their stock despite high prices. The National Cereal and Produce Board purchased 3,142 bags of 50kg each from farmers (Table 4). Local traders and millers have maize stocks higher than the long-term average by by 27 and 139 percent respectively. The increase is attributed to most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (posho millers) and also the looming crop failure in agro pastoral and decrease in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders to stock. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. The available maize stocks in the county is expected to last for 3 months, as opposed to the normal 4 5 months. Table 4: Quantities of Cereal Stocks Held Currently (90-kg bags) Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 140,431 276,686 Traders 44,338 34,928 1,056 Millers 19,997 8,382 Food AidNCPB 3142 14,400 Totals 204,766 319,996 2,010 1,059 6,945 1,004 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species reared in the county are cattle, goats, sheep and donkeys. Livestock contribute more cash income to households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at 88 and 50 percent respectively and approximately 20 25 percent contribution to food across all the livelihood zones (Table 5). Table 5: Livestock contribution to food and income per livelihood zone Livelihood Zone Food (Percent) Income (Percent) Mixed farming Irrigated Cropping Agro-Pastoral Pastoral The above average performance of the last two consecutive seasons (2023 short rains and 2024 long rains) had resulted to significant improvement in forage condition and water recharge across the livelihood zones. Subsequently, livestock trekking distances drastically reduced leading to improved livestock productivity. Pasture and Browse Situation The current condition for forage condition is good across all the zones which is attributed to enhanced rainfall that characterized by even and good distribution both in space and time. However, localized pockets in pastoral zones of Kwokototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to an invasive weed such as santa maria fever few (Parthenium Hysterophorus) and Prosopis Juliflora in Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Pasture that was established last year is being harvested in Agro- Pastoral and Mixed Farming areas though the yields are low. Those which were established this year is actively growing and at piping stage. The available pasture and browse are expected to last 3 months and 6 months in all the zones but depending on the performance of June July August 2024 off season rains. Page 6 of 25 Table 6: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Insecurity Good Insecurity pastoral Mixed farming Good to Irrigated Cropping Good to Pasture Conservation The county has a total of 93 hay stores with Eldama Ravine, Baringo North and Baringo South having 30, 25 and 20 hay stores respectively. Notably, Tiaty sub-county, classified under the Pastoral livelihood zone, has no hay store. Currently, there are 1,684,000 bales of hay stored across these 93 hay stores, against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Each hay bales is estimated to weight approximately 15 kilograms and is priced between Ksh 200 and Ksh 300 per bale (Table 7). Table 7: Baled Hay Sub-county Stores Storage Capacity No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight (in Kgs) Average price per (Ksh) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 300,000 100,000 20 are held by KVDA 80 Held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 4,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. Eldama Ravine 1,800,000 1,200,000 80 by farmers 20 FCS Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 280,000 130,000 farmers community stores Mogotio 570,000 250,000 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The body condition of all livestock species currently ranges from good to fair (BCS 4 and BCS 3) across the livelihood zones, while camels are observed to have fair body condition in all livelihood zone. Goats generally have good body condition except in Pastoral livelihood zone, where their body condition is fair. The good to fair livestock body condition is attributed to gradual improvement in forage condition, water availability, reduced trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. However, there are some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zones (Tiaty East and Barwessa) with limited access to grazing fields due to insecurity has resulted in fair livestock body condition. The body Page 7 of 25 condition is expected to improve further following the ongoing off-season rains. The good body condition is likely to enhance household purchasing power, thus favourable terms of trade. Table 8: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood zone Cattle Sheep Camel Normal Current Normal Normal Normal Mixed farming BCS 4 Irrigated Cropping Agro-Pastoral Pastoral BCS 5 BCS 5 Note: BCS Livestock Body Condition Score BCS 1 Very Poor (Emaciated) BCS 2 Poor BCS 3 Fair BCS 4 Good BCS 5- Very Good Tropical Livestock Units (Average Number of Livestock) There was a reduction in TLUs among both the poor and medium-income household as a result of increased sales of livestock to pay for school fees and to meet other necessities at household level. Over the last 10 years, the TLUs across all the livelihood zones have decreased by half. The main factor leading to this decline include land sub-division, preceding drought and inadequate feed for livestock, primarily due to climate variability over the years. Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) by Household Income Groups Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Agro-Pastoral Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Mixed farming Birth Rate Birth rates are high for all livestock species due to the good performance of two consecutive rainfall seasons that supported improved rangeland resources both in quality and quantity thus driving high livestock productivity. Milk Production The production per cow per day is higher than the normal, mainly because of the good rains experienced from March to May, which improved feed availability across all livelihoods. Milk production was ranging between 4 and 7 liters per household per day compared to long-term average of 3 to 5 litres per household per day. In Pastoral livelihood, milk produced was 2 litres against a normal average of 1 litres. The production is expected to stabilize following the ongoing off-season rains, which will rejuvenate forage condition. Table 10: Milk Production, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Agro-pastoral 5 - 6 3 - 4 Mixed farming 5 - 7 4 - 5 Pastoral Irrigated cropping Page 8 of 25 Migration The livestock migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of pasture, water sources and insecurity tensions especially in Pastoral areas. Livestock animals are being driven from Tirioko, Toturkuna, Kokwototo to areas around Lake Baringo, Ruko conservancy and Laikipia County. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or invaded by Santa maria fever weed. Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next 3 months if the JuneJulyAugust offseason failed. Mortalities No unusual livestock mortalities were reported during the period under review, with normal mortalities reported by communities in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as a result of (Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia) CCPP in goats and Blue Tongue in Sheep. There were also incidences of livestock abortions in Mukutani and parts of Tiaty East suspected to be caused by vector agents. Water for Livestock The current sources of water for livestock include lakes, boreholes, water pans and rivers. The return trekking distances from grazing area to watering points are currently 1-2 km for Mixed farming and 2-4 km for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral. This distance is lower than normal due to good rains received from months of March to May 2024, which significantly recharged water sources. Open surface water sources are projected to last for 3-4 months. Factors limiting access to water are wild life, especially in areas around lake Baringo, insecurity in Pastoral zones and the salinity of some boreholes. Table 11: Water Availability and Access Livelihood Sources Return average distances (km) Expected duration to last (months) for each source Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Continuous Continuous Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Continuous Continuous pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore- holes Watering Frequency Currently, all livestock species are watered daily due to the availability of water in various sources attributed to enhanced performance of the last two consecutive rainfall seasons. These seasons supported the full recharge of water sources across all livelihood zones (Table 12). Table 12: Watering Frequency (No. of Days per Week) Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Daily Page 9 of 25 Agro-pastoral Daily 2 days Daily Daily Daily Daily Pastoral Daily 2 days Daily Daily Daily Daily 3.1.4 Impact on Availability The enhanced rainfall performance supported improved rangeland resources which in turn led to good livestock body condition. This improvement has led to increased milk production, higher-than- average livestock prices and decline in food commodities prices, thereby driving favourable terms of trade for households. 3.2 Access Most of the markets in the county were operational, except for a few feeder markets in Tiaty constituency that were affected by insecurity. Maize prices dwindled and currently lower than the long-term average. Livestock prices for all species have increased due to good body condition. The terms of trade were favourable, as households bought more kilograms of cereals from the income obtained by selling one goat. 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning Market Operations The Main livestock markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk, Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, and Kalabata. Supply of livestock to these markets was mainly from local households within the county. For farm produce, Sirwa and Mogotio are the main market, with 40-60 percent of food items sourced locally. The majority of the markets are operational and well provisioned with both livestock and crop produce. Market Prices Maize price The prices for dry white maize have been declining since February 2024, attributed to 2023 short rains maize harvests in areas of Western Kenya and the South Rift. In addition, cross-border imports of maize by Kenyan traders Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda and South Africa have also led to reduction in selling prices of maize in Kenya. The current average retail price is Ksh 57 per kilogram of dry white maize. The current retail average price is 17 and 48 percent lower than the 2019 2023 and the 2023 averages respectively at the same period of the year (Figure 3). The maize prices are most likely to remain below the long-term average for the next 2-3 months, following the above average March to May 2024 rainfall season that supported enhanced crop production. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize Price Trend Page 10 of 25 Goat price The average retail price for a medium size goat as at June 2024 stood at Ksh 4,130 which was 59 percent above the average for the same period from 2019 to 2023 (Figure 4). These above-average goats prices attributed to good body condition. Data from NDMA sentinel sites indicates highest prices reported in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh 5,167, while lowest observed in the Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 3,883. lowest prices in the Pastoral livelihood zone were attributed frequent insecurity incidents, which hindered access major livestock markets. With the ongoing off-season rains from July to August 2024, rangeland conditions are expected to further improve, potentially leading to higher than normal goat selling prices. 3.2.2 Terms of Trade The goat to maize ratio among rural households have maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year. This indicates favourable terms of trade for Pastoral households due to enhanced purchasing power. ascending trend has been linked to increasing goat prices and declining maize prices across the livelihood zone. Currently, rural households on average, were able to buy 72 kilograms of maize from income obtained by selling one medium sized goat. The current goat to maize ratio is 76 percent higher than the 2019 to 2023 average and 177 percent above the 2023 average at the period of the year Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Figure 4: Average Goat Price Trends Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kilograms of Maize Exchanged for a Goat Figure 5: Household Terms of Trade Page 11 of 25 (Figure 5). The terms of trade is projected to sustain above average trend through end of December 2024. 3.2.3 Income Sources The main income varied across the livelihood zones, with livestock production being the main income sources for households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones. In Pastoral livelihood zone, livestock production immensely contributes 88 percent to income and 50 percent in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Cash crop production is the main income sources (59 percent) in irrigated Cropping while in Mixed farming cash crop production and casual waged labour is relied by 30 percent and 20 percent of the households for income respectively. 3.2.4 Water access and availability (including cost consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of these water sources are concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones, where the potential is higher compared to Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods, which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Water is more accessible in Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Open water sources like rivers, water pans, springs, streams across the county in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 70-80 percent normally. The available water in these zones is likely to last for five to six months as compared to the normal three to four months. In irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, rivers were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity. The available water is expected to last for five to six months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans across all livelihood zones is stable as a result of the enhanced rainfall performance. Presently, 90 - 95 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones with some few which are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. For example Kamurio borehole, Kongor borehole, Kamar Borehole, Chebinyiny borehole, Kirim borehole, Kipkandule borehole and Barkipii borehole are among those affected. Additionally, Chemarikitich, Chepkitip, Katungura, Sirya Water Pans were reported to have been silted. In isolated cases, there were exceptional water quality challenges along eastern and the western valleys of Baringo county for underground water sources due to high fluoride levels. Distance to Water Sources The average distances to domestic water sources were below normal at 3 to 4.5 km in pastoral and 3 to 3.5 km in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 5 6 km. The distances were below normal at (0 - 1.5Km) in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zones. Waiting Time at the Source The waiting time at the common water source is stable and projected to reduce drastically in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the LTA if the current off-season rainfall will continue. In Mixed farming livelihood zone, the waiting time is between 1 2.5 minutes which is below normal. In pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas it was between 2.5 and 3.5 minutes, also below normal, which is attributed to the abundant water availability in most water sources. It was lowest in irrigated zone at 0-2 minutes. Cost of Water and Water Consumption Page 12 of 25 Water from open water source was free, while the cost of water from developed sources remained stable at Ksh 3 to 5 across all livelihood zones. Water vending reduced with few vendors selling water on average at Ksh 20 per 20 liters jerrican. Water consumption per person per day is above normal at 25-30 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20 to 25 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zone compared to normal. Water quality surveillance is highly recommended in key hot spots areas of Irrigated, Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Esageri, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaan. Loboi, Kamar for water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of water quality challenges. Table 13: Households Trekking Distance, Waiting Time and Water Consumption Livelihood Zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20 litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 0 1.5 1.5 - 3 3 5 3 5 1 2.5 3 - 5 25 - 30 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 0 - 2 1 - 2 25 - 30 15 - 20 Agro-pastoral 3 3.5 3 - 4 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 Pastoral 3 4.5 4 5.5 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food Consumption Food consumption score is a proxy indicator for food security, that captures household diet and consumption frequency over a seven-day period. consumption patterns varied across the livelihood zones. The SMART Survey data revealed that the proportion of households that consumption significantly reduced in Tiaty to 7.8 percent from 31 percent reported in last year SMART Survey. The shift is attributed to milk availability and improved household purchasing power. Poor FCS means households were consuming staples vegetables daily and never or very seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. Currently, 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption (Figure 6). Acceptable food consumption implies that household are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses, and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. 31.0 11.4 13.7 18.0 86.7 88.0 78.5 52.0 Baringo NorthSouth Borderline Acceptable Figure 6: FCS Page 13 of 25 Milk Consumption The current average milk consumption per household is lower than normal in some livelihood zones because farmers prefers to sell to get cash for supporting other basic requirements. Consumption was 1 litre per household in Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming against 1.5 2 litres normally. In Pastoral livelihood zones, consumption averaged 1.5 litres, which is higher than the normal 1 litre. Milk prices are currently lower than the long-term averages because of increased supply of milk in all the zones. Milk prices are currently ranging between Ksh 45 60 per litre compared to the normal range of Ksh 50 - 80. Most of the milk originates from Mixed farming zones of Mogotio and Eldama Ravine (Table 10). 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) is an indicator used to compare the hardship faced by households due to a shortage of food. The index measures the frequency and severity of food consumption behaviors that households had to engage in response to food shortage over the 7 days preceding the survey (VAM WFP). SMART Survey data collected in July 2024 showed that the food related coping mean index declined to 7.7 in Tiaty from 17.6 and to 6.2 from 10.8 in Baringo North and South sub-counties (Figure 7). Sentinel site data from NDMA revealed that about 65.2 percent of the households applied stress consumption coping strategies to overcome hardships faced due to shortage of food. Those that used crisis and above strategies were 17 percent and only 17.8 percent of the households reported not engaging in any food related coping strategies. Baringo North South Mean rCSI Figure 7: Mean rCSI Page 14 of 25 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns During the 2024 long rains season, no unusual diseases outbreak was reported across the county. However, common endemic illnesses that were reported for under five years and adult population include Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea across all livelihood zones. Diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level, which was attributed by most households consuming untreated water. The URTI is lower in all age cohort in 2024 compared to previous year. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6 59 months reduced to 82 percent in 2024, compared 87 percent during the same period in 2023. The reduction is due to difficulties in accessing children in hard to reach areas because of insecurity. Also, the scaling down of outreach programs and displacement of households by floods hampered access to routine health services. Morbidity 5 YRS Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) Diarrhoea Malaria Morbidity Under five DISEASE Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) DISEASE Diarrhoea DISEASE Malaria Figure 8: Morbidity Reported Cases Page 15 of 25 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity According to SMART survey conducted in July 2024 for Tiaty West and Tiaty East sub-counties, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. The reduction in GAM rates in could be attributed intervention put in place Baringo County Government with support partners. However, GAM rates still remained high, indicating a Critical phase and Poor phase in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively. NDMA data for June 2024 indicated that approximately 20.3 percent of the children aged below five year are at risk of malnutrition based on Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurements. The current proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is 17 percent higher than long term average for the same time of year (Figure 9). 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The proportion of households accessing drinking water from improved sources stands at 35.3 percent for households in Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties, which is a decline compared to 51.6 percent recorded during the same period in 2023. About 22.1 percent of the households in Tiaty access drinking water from safeimproved sources, a decrease from 31.4 percent in 2023. Majority of households reported not treating drinking water, with 76.9 percent in Baringo North and South and 98.2 percent in Tiaty. Latrine coverage was 64 percent in Baringo North and South while it was only 8.7 percent in Tiaty (SMART Survey, 2024). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 Proportion of maize stocks held by households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good - Fair Average Return trekking distance (kilometres) 0.5 - 4 0 4.3 Water consumption (litres per person per day) 12 - 25 20 - 30 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing 0.5 - 4 1 - 4 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in upper Limit lower limit Figure 9: Proportion of children U5 at Risk of Malnutrition Page 16 of 25 Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 Coping strategy index Food consumption score 3.5 Education Baringo county has 845 public ECDE centres with an enrolment of 42,832 children (22,322 boys and 20,504 girls), private ECDE centres are 107 with an enrolment of 8,557 (4,256 boys and 4,302 girls). There are 745 public primary schools with enrolment of 160,988 (82,496 boys and 78,292 girls) while private primary schools are 102 with an enrolment of 17,294 (8,605 boys and 8,689 girls). Public secondary schools are 189 with an enrolment of 56,838 (28,764 boys and 28,074 girls), 5 private secondary schools having 1,073 learners (538 boys and 535 girls), public junior secondary school are 536 with an enrolment of 29,765 (boys 15,320, girls 14,437) and private junior secondary schools are 39 with an enrolment of 2,030 (boys 1,036, girls 994). The total number of learners in our basic learning institutions are 217,278 learners (boys 111,931, girls 105,347). The schools are distributed as follows: Table 15: SchoolsInstitutions per Sub-county Sub-county Centres public centres private Primary Schools public Primary Schools private Secondary Schools public Secondary Schools private public private Tiaty East Tiaty West Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio Baringo Central Eldama Ravine TOTAL 3.5.1 Enrolment There was an increment in population of 409 children in ECDE centers, 1,161 pupils in primary schools, 416 in JSS and 10 students in secondary schools. This was because of introduction and enhancement of school meals program in primary schools and ECDE centers. In secondary school, the increment is because of the 100 percent transition and the availability of bursaries. Cases of school dropouts were reported in the county. In ECDE centers, a total of 26 children (14 boys and 12 girls) dropped out due to nomadismdistance from school. In primary schools, a total of 58 student (32 boys and 26 girls) dropped out for various reasons; for boys, it was due to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurityviolence, nomadism and chronic illness; for girls, it was due to teenage pregnancies, child labour, nomadism, insecurityviolence, psychological trauma and illness. In secondary schools, the number of dropouts is 72 students (42 boys and 30 girls). The reason for dropout for boys is lack of fees, indulgence into boda boda business, insecurity, child labour, and truancy. For girls, the reasons were lack of fees, insecurity, teenage pregnancies, early marriages and insecurity. Page 17 of 25 3.5.2 Effects of 2024 long rains (FLOODING) in schools The rains affected access to educational institution across the county. Although some institution were not flooded, they were marooned by flood waters, rendering them inaccessible. For instance, at Kiserian school, the learners needed a boat and a foot bridge to access the school. In Sandai and Loboi, learners needed foot bridges for them to cross over the swollen lake Bogoria to reach their respective schools. In other cases, heavy rainfall resulted in rock falls and landslides that blocked access to schools, as was experienced in Eitui, Kaplel, Tabagon in Baringo Central and Sangarau in Baringo South and Kipngorom in Mogotio. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.3 School Feeding In-kind meals were provided in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North, Mogotio and Baringo South sub-counties targeting 146,574 learners. The county has a cash transfer or HGSMP for Baringo Central targeting 29 schools, with a combined 530 learners (boys-250, girls-.300). Koibatek and Baringo Central sub-counties benefited from none of these programs, implying that about 57,594 learners were not having access to feeding programs. A number of public ECDE pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the parents, while the county government has rolled out a pilot ECDE Meals programme covering over 6,000 children in 148 selected centres across the county. This will start in a later date when funds will be availed by the county government. Measures put in place for handling and storage of food include; all the cooks are required to have medical certificates, clean water is used for food preparation, presence of food stores which have been fumigated and stacks for food storage, and lastly cooks wear proper dressing (aprons and headgears). Table 16: School Feeding Program Under SMP Without SMP School Girls Total Girls Total Pre school Primary 146,574 57,594 3.5.4 Inter Sectoral links where available There were migrations and displacement of households in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North because of insecurity, thus affecting school attendance. During this period, absenteeism tends to decrease in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming zones due to improved water availability, though school-going children are asked by their parents to assist in the farms. In Mixed farming, not much change is expected. During the prolonged closure of schools cases of dropouts were high due to pregnancies and boys engaging in boda boda business. Some pupilsstudents became victims of retrogressive practices such as early and forced marriages, early pregnancies and engagement in child labour-like activities. In some cases, boys of school going age were involved in stock theft raids contributing to insecurity. 4.0 Food Security Prognosis 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions The county director of meteorology indicated that several parts of the county will receive off season rains through end of September 2024. Rangeland resources are projected to improve further across the livelihood zones and likely to last until the onset of the 2024 short rains seasons expected in October 2024. Page 18 of 25 Livestock body condition is anticipated to be good through end of the year hence likely to sustain above average selling prices in the markets. The expected 2024 long rains harvest is likely to support gradual decline in prices of food commodities in the markets. Water sources will likely recharge, potentially reducing the normal trekking distances for both households and livestock to water points. 4.2 Food Security Outlook for August October 2024 Food consumption patterns are likely be stabilize in the next three months across the livelihood zones. There is a likelihood of reduction in the proportion of household engaged in destructive coping strategies. The nutrition status for children under five is projected to either remain stable or decrease, as milk production is anticipated to increase due to ongoing kidding and calving. 4.3 Food Security Outlook for November 2023 January 2024 The expected 2024 short rains season is likely to rejuvenate the rangeland resources, subsequently triggering positive change in most of the food security outcome indicators. Food consumption patterns will likely improve further owing to projected crop harvests and milk availability. Improvements in livestock health and body conditions will result in seasonal increase in livestock prices hence further boosting household income. Improved livestock productivity will likely result in improved nutritional status for children under five. The enhanced situation is expected to drive improvement in food consumption, reduction in negative coping mechanism thus likelihood of improved nutritional status of children under five and other family members. 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of Findings The county received above average rainfall of about 126 140 percent of normal. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandit attacks were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Around 42 percent of the planted land has been affected by Fall army worm. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in the 93 hay stores against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales for the 93 stores. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households had poor food consumption in Tiaty and 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July Page 19 of 25 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. 5.1.3 Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Sub-county Ranking Sub-county (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Hotspot wards Tiaty East Poor pastures Malnutrition Insecurity Floods Livestock diseases Livestock migration Disruption of Markets Poor rainfall performance Tirioko Ribkwo Tiaty West Insecurity Malnutrition Disruption of Markets Livestock migration Poor rainfall performance Silale Tangulbei Korossi Baringo North Livestock diseases Insecurity Malnutrition Disruption of Markets Crop pests and diseases Saimo Soi Baringo South Floods Insecurity Malnutrition Livestock diseases Livestock migration Mukutani Mogotio Poor rainfall performance in some parts of Kamar Malnutrition Livestock diseases Crop pests and diseases Emining Baringo Central Good rainfall performance Crop pests and diseases Eldama Ravine Good rainfall performance Crop pests and diseases 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions 5.2.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Intervention No. of benefic iaries Implementer Impacts terms of food security (Ksh.) Frame Agriculture All sub- counties Saimo Soi, Bartabwa Sacho, , ChuroAmaya, Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus and Kisanana Resilient building program households 9,725 County Government Baringo, Restoration rehabilitation of livelihoods destroyed by DL 58.4 M June Baringo Central All wards Affruitation Program 3,000 Increased under fruits cover for environmental conservation and food security 3.2 M Page 20 of 25 counties Marigat, ogotio, Kabarnet, Kabartonjo, Eldama Ravine Promotion of farmer service centres County Government and WFP Improve access to inputs by farmers promote entrepreneurship 2023 - counties All wards Nutrition Sensitive Utilization initiatives 25,000 County Government Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household food nutrition security 300 M 2020 - Livestock Baringo South, ogotio, Eldama Zavine, Baringo Central, Baringo North All wards Provision of pasture certified seeds 10,000 BCGPartners Increased feeds for livestock for increased production August 2 024 counties Apiculture promotion Groups County Government, Increased honey production August Water Health and Nutrition health facilities. Selected ECDs Vitamin Supplementation 102,20 UNICEF, Hellen Keller, ChildFund Improved immunity Twice a year Health Facilities supplementation 77,000 County Government 0.9 M Routine Education Page 21 of 25 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions Table 18: Proportion of Population in Need of Assistance Sub-county 2023 LRA Food Security (Worst to Best) Population Estimated Proportion in Need of Immediate Food Assistance (percent) Per Sub-county 2023 SRA 2024 LRA Tiaty East 79,923 (19,980) 25 (11,980)15 Tiaty West 73,424 (18,356) 25 (11,014) 15 Baringo North 104,871 (12,584) 12 (10,487) 10 Baringo South 90,104 10,000 (11) 4,500 (5) Mogotio 91,104 10,000 (11) (0)0 Baringo Central 96,951 (2,908)3 (0)0 Eldama Ravine 129,535 (2950)2 (0)0 Total population in need of food assistance 37,980 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Intervention beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame Agriculture counties 1. Purchase distribution of Traditional value crops. 2. Construction of farm ponds 3. Supply of drip kits and multi- storey gardens vegetable seeds National Government, County Government WFP, ELRP, Staff Crops Post-harvest management Purchase distribution hermetic bags Purchase distribution solar driers National Government, County Government, development partners Staff 2024 - Livestock Baringo North Mogotio, Vaccination against LSD, CCPP, and PPR Deworming 100,000 cattle 270,000 goats 50,000 sheep Technical Staff Page 22 of 25 Baringo North, Tiaty West, Mogotio, Baringo South Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves 4,500 HHs MoALF, NDMA, other Partners Tiaty West East Loruk, Chura, Nginyang, Kolloa Renovationconstruction livestock Auction yards 13,000 HHs BCG, County Government Land, Staff counties Provision of certified pasture seeds 5,000 HHs BCG, County Government Land, Staff Water counties All wards Promotion of roof water harvesting structures Health and Nutrition counties Health Facilities Intensify mass screening and referrals Under-fives from hotspot areas 1.2 M Staff and Tools Dec 2024 counties County Deworming 83,066 children (1 5 Years) BCG MOH 1.66 M Staffs Dec 2024 Education",
        "Baringo_LRA_2023.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2023 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2023 The 2023 long rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the onset of the long rains of 2023. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was observed in the second dekad of March which was normal and the amount received were normal totaling 91-121 percent of normal. Temporal distribution was fair to good while the spatial distribution was fairly even. The season ceased in the third dekad of May which was normal. Insecurity incidents were reported in parts of Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties but were contained. Other shocks were high food prices, crop pests, crop failure and livestock diseases. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture was above long term mean (LTA) but the projected yield will be below LTA with maize accounting for 74 percent of LTA. Acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and the projected yield will be above LTA for most of the crops. Cereal stocks for farmers were extremely below LTA but for traders and millers, the stocks were above LTA due to high demand. Forage conditions were fair to good across the livelihood zones, with Pastoral areas experiencing pasture deficit. Livestock body condition was fair to good for various livestock species while milk production was fair. Milk consumption was below LTA while the milk prices were above LTA. Livestock prices were improving and were within the seasonal range while cereal prices were still very high compared to LTA. Terms of trade were below the LTA and outside seasonal range. The main water sources were normal while the trekking distances were slightly above LTA in the Pastoral areas and normal in other livelihood zones. Waiting time at water sources and water consumption per person per day remained normal. The most common disease was upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) for both children and adults. The county had acceptable food consumption score though the Pastoral areas had the majority of the sampled households not having acceptable food consumption score. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none copping, stressed and crisis food based coping strategies respectively while 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households applied crisis, stressed and none copping livelihood based coping strategies respectively. Tiaty East and West sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage at eight percent while hand washing practices were fairly fair across the livelihood zones. Malnutrition levels were still critical with a GAM rate of 23 percent while children at risk of malnutrition was above LTA at 22 percent. When comparing the previous term and the current term, there was a marginal decline in school enrolment at ECDE and primary level while at the secondary level, there was a slight improvement in enrolment. Most of the ECDE and primary schools had access to school feeding program. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase two (Stressed) whereby Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three, Agro-Pastoral zone was in phase two while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ ii 3.1.1 Crop production ......................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereal stocks .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 Livestock production ................................................................................................................. 9 3.2.1 Market prices ........................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 18 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 22 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns ........................................................................................... 23 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .................................................................... 24 3.3.3 Nutrition status ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................................ 29 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 32 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season .................................................................... 33 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ......................................................................... 33 3.5.4 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 33 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 37 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ................................................................................................................. 37 5.2.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 38 5.2.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 39 5.3. Recommended interventions ......................................................................................................... 44 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 44 5.3.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 45 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub- Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2023 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2023 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2023 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2023 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th -18th July 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical Mixed farming Agro-Pastoral Marginal Mixed Figure 1: Population based on livelihood zones teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season took place during the second dekad of March which was normal. The amount of rains received during the season were normal with Tiaty East, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and parts of Baringo South receiving 111-125 percent of the normal rains while the rest of the county including Baringo North, Baringo Central and Parts of Baringo South sub counties receiving 91-110 percent of the normal rains. In terms of temporal distribution, the peak of the season was observed in the second dekad of April while in the month of May, there was a significant decline in the amount of rains received which were below normal compared to the long term mean (LTA). The spatial distribution was relatively even across the county although there were some pockets in Tiaty which include Silale and Tirioko wards which had uneven distribution. The season ceased normally during the third dekad of May although the county did receive some significant rains in the month of June (Figure 2). The county also got off-season rains in the third dekad of June. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Baringo County is among conflict prone areas in the ASALs of Kenya, which has a long history of cattle rustling which dates back to 1970s. It has transformed from traditional practice to the current criminal militarized activity. The root cause of perennial conflict in Baringo is majorly resource conflict aggravated by proliferation of small firearms, successive political incitements, severe drought, cultural practices, economic marginalization and scarcity of resources (such as productive land, water and good infrastructure). These conflicts result in loss of lives, loss of 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Rainfall (mm) MonthDekad Baringo County-Jan - Dec 2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG Figure 2: Rainfall performance property and livelihoods, displacement of people and lead to poverty. It also leads to closure of critical facilities for example schools, dispensaries, roads, markets and destruction of water points and irrigation schemes. During drought spells, rising tension and sporadic attacks over shared resources increase at the following hotspots; Baringo South sub county - Mukutani, Mochongoi, Arabal, Kiserian, Kasiela, Rugus, Lomaiwe, Ngelecha, Chebinyiny, Noosukuro, Tuyotich, Sinoni and Kapendasum. Baringo North sub county-Yatya, Kagir, Chemoe, Ngaratuko, Kinyach, Kaborion, Kapturo, Kesumet, Chepkisin, Kalabata and Kinyach. Tiaty East and West sub counties- Nadome, Kapedo, Koloa, Loruk, Amaya, Lemuyek, Makutano, Kositei, Kipnai and Loiwat. SamburuBaringo county border - Longewan and Losuk . Baringo-Laikipia border - Olmoran LNC. These conflicts result to communities being pushed to move to safer places with their cattle or livestock thus increased incidences of drought related livestock diseases such as CCPP, FMD, LSD, ECF etc. During these times families are separated, early pregnancies, malnutrition cases and school drop outs. Loss of livelihoods and depletion of water sources is also reported. During the season under review, approximately 3,982 households were affected and interfering with their seasonal activities. The conflict affected Baringo North, Baringo south and Tiaty sub counties. Shelters of some of the affected households were razed to ashes while others were broken into. Unspecified number of populations have either been integrated with their relatives and neighbors in safer nearest villages. No IDP camp has been set up though hosting families have cited congestion in their houses requiring humanitarian support. (Situation report July 2023, by Baringo County Disaster Risk Management). All school which were previously temporary closed due to insecurity have been opened (Kapendasum, Arabal, Kasiela, Kagir and chepkesin primary schools) in Baringo South and North. The impacts of conflict with respect to food security in the afore-mention areas include; reduced potential land acreage earmarked for crop production (Embosos, Ol arabal Mukutani irrigation schemes, Mochongoi, Kerio valley), failed farmers extension services, infrastructure vandalism, suspended development partners activities, declined market operations and displacement of population. Following the socioeconomic effects of cattle rustling in Baringo county, the following measures will go into arresting the escalating situation; The pastoralists be encouraged to practice livelihoods diversification, increased water points and pasture development in various places, tackle invasive species in their grazing fields, regular peace meetings, enhanced road network, capacity building of grazing committees, enhance security patrols in hotspot areas mentioned above, forceful disarmament and the long term plan is to expand educational institutions in the areas of the aggressor and registration of community land as private land (individual title) or as community land under Community land Act 2016. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High cereal prices Cereal prices particularly for maize continued to be very high compared to the LTA hence limiting access to the vulnerable households. During the assessment period, maize prices retailed at more than 70 percent of the LTA and hence affecting terms of trade more so for the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral households. Hazards Crop failure Crop failure for the maize crop was mostly observed in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone due to the poor performance of the rains during the month of May whereby it ceased raining when the crops were at the most critical stage of grain fillingtussling. Crop pests Sporadic cases of fall army worms were observed across the county attacking maize crop in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and this may lead to significant crop loses. Livestock diseases The county experienced sporadic cases of livestock diseases which affected productivity. Some of the diseases prevalent in the county include CCPP, lumpy skin diseases PPR among others. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop production Introduction The long rains season is important for food and Nutrition security in the county as almost 80 percent of the countys food needs are derived from it. The season is relied upon for production of various food crops and in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. Even though the county received relatively normal rains in terms of amount, its distribution was erratic and hence affecting planting activities. Farmers planted at different times depending on the local onset of the season such that by the time the season was ending, crops were at different physiological stages. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Income Agro pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Seed maize Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture planted during rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Long rains season (Ha) rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Long rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 45,786 39,718 732,576 992,950 2. Beans 23,267 20,244 93,068 161,952 3. Sorghum 1,695 1,685 13,560 20,220 4. Irish Potatoes 3,906 1,800 156,750 179,000 The area planted with maize crop was 115 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this was due to enhanced campaigns to farmers to increase acreage following weather forecast messaging which had indicated that the season was likely to be normal. In Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, maize crops were exhibiting moisture stress as a result of early cessation of the rains which happened when the crops were at their most critical stage of grain filling and tussling and therefore there are high chances of crop failure. Crop failure rates for maize are estimated to be 30 percent in Eldama Ravine, 85 percent in Mogotio, 45 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 65 percent in Baringo South- and 25 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is expected to be 55 percent. However, areas along Tugen hills, Mochongoi and upper parts of Eldama Ravine, the maize crop is relatively in good condition and farmers are likely to realize 50 to 70 percent of their normal yield. There were cases of infestation by field pests, whereby 46 percent of the area planted was affected by Fall army worms reported in all sub counties, and this was aggravated by the dry spells that occurred within the season. The projected yield for maize crop is expected to be 74 percent of the LTA in the upper areas of the county. The area under sorghum production was almost normal compared to the LTA and the projected yield is 67 percent while area put under potatoes was 217 percent of LTA and the projected yield is 88 percent of LTA. The area put under beans production was 114 percent of LTA but the projected yield will be 58 percent of LTA and this was attributed to poor temporal distribution of the rains which led to flower abortion. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. Irrigated crop production Table 3: Irrigated crop planted during the 2023 Long rains season Long Term Average years) planted during rains season 2023 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 10,360 4,325 Beans Tomatoes 4,400 2,050 Water melons 3,000 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 99,750 110,200 The area under maize was above the LTA by 171 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers and lake Baringo (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi, Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river water flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 45 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth managed the crops while marketing was mainly undertaken by women. About 30-50 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. However, it should be noted that less than five percent of the countys population is involved in irrigated agriculture and that maize production from this zone contributes less than 0.5 percent of the countys average maize production in the season under review. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 42,745 290,864 3,947 Traders 78,833 34,928 1,056 2,998 Millers 20,902 8,382 AidNCPB 1,242 Totals 142,480 334,174 1,059 6,945 1,004 Households The stock held by households is below LTA by 86 percent (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 55 percent whereby few farmers didnt dispose their stock even though the prices were high. National Cereal and Produce Board also did not purchase maize from farmers but with the currently high prices, farmers are releasing their stocks. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they sold their stock to purchase inputs for the long rains season. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but the available stocks may last for less than a month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones, there were no stocks. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA by 225 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 85 percent of the households were dependent on the markets for their food supply, and this was more pronounced in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers The local millers stocks were higher than the LTA by 249 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). Other factors such as the looming crop failure and high cereal prices also motivated millers and traders to acquire more stocks. Traders and millers had more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the households rely mostly on markets in accessing food. Post harvesting issues So far, the county is yet to experience food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels since harvesting is still going on. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The long rain period in the County is very important for pasture and fodder production, which is much relied by the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral communities as their main source of feed for livestock. Agricultural byproducts, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important component of livestock feed. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry season and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county Contribution of livestock sector to both food and income in the household food security is as follows (Table 5). Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income SNo. Livelihood zone contribution income Mixed farming Irrigated Agro pastoral Impacts of March April May rains on Livestock In Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, the rains were poorly distributed which affected negatively pasture and browse recovery. The current forage conditions in these livelihood zones are generally fair to poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The livestock production potential during the season under review is still sub optimal due to poor rains, livestock diseases, among other factors. Pasture and browse situation Table 6: Forage conditions Forage conditions for both browse and pastures were in fair to good conditions across all the livelihood zones and this was not normal compared to the previous seasons as it ought to be in good conditions in a typical year (Table 6). The pastures are expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the pastures are likely to last for two months. The browse is likely to last for at least two months across the livelihood zones. The forage and browse were not in their normal conditions because of the erratic patterns of the long rains especially in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Forage access was being hampered by insecurity challenges in parts of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties. Livestock diseases also affected access to pasture resources in certain parts of the county especially in the pastoral livelihood zones. Invassive species particularly in parts of Kollowa, Silale, Tirioko and Ribko wards and parts of Baringo Pasture Browse Livelih Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Condition How long to last (Months) Factors Limiting access Good 1 nflict Disease Good 2-3 nflict Disease Agro - urity urity Irrigate d zone Mixed farming flict flict South sub county were observed to be significant and they were responsible for displacing palatable pasture species hence affecting availability. The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus. Crop residues are an important source of livestock feed in the county particularly in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones especially during period of harvesting. As farmers embark on harvesting of their crops in the next one month, its expected that the crop residues will come in handy in supplementing livestock feeding. Moreover, livestock are likely to benefit from some of the failed crop especially maize which will be converted to livestock feed. Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture production (Table 7). The stocks levels ranged from one to five percent across the sub counties with only Eldama Ravine sub county having substantial stocks of about 17 percent of their storage capacity. Most of the stocks are being held by farmers and their prices were within the normal range. Price stability was attributed to availability of the natural forage which were fairly in good conditions. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feed Sub County No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo North 150,000 bales 2,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by farmer groups Baringo Central 100,000 3,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by farmer groups Baringo South 80,000 1,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by Mogotio 200,000 10,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by cooperatives Eldama Ravine 300,000 50,000 12 - 15 80 by farmers, 20 by cooperatives Tiaty 10,000 12 - 15 No hay at the moment Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle was fair to good in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the body condition was good (Table 8). For the small stocks, the livestock body condition was fairly good across the livelihood zones. Compared to the previous assessment of the short rains, there was a notable improvement in livestock body condition following the onset of the long rains which led to improvement in forage and water availability. The livestock body condition may improve further if the county gets more rains in the month of August which will sustain the pastures and browse. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit In comparison to the previous assessment, the average TLU for both poor and medium income households remained almost the same at 3.6 and 7.2 respectively (Table 9). Compared to the LTA, the TLUs were below normal and this was as a result the cumulative impacts of failed rainfall seasons that were experienced in the county for the last three years. Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 Irrigated Cropping BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 Agro-pastoral BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 NB: BCS 1 Very PoorVery thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average NB: 1 TLU250kgs Milk Production and consumption Table 10: Milk production Milk production across the livelihood zones was less than the LTA although the production trend was improving due to the improving livestock body condition (Table 10). Milk consumption was also less than the LTA due to low production level while milk prices were above the LTA across livelihood zones with the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones having the highest price at Kshs 100litre. Livestock Migration The migration routes were mainly normal for now although the animals that had initially moved out of the county in search of pastures were yet to come back to their usual grazing sites as the forage conditions were yet to achieve full recovery. The current livestock migration routes include Churo-Amaya-Laikipia, Kolloa-Tirioko-West Pokot,Silale-Malaso-Turkana, Arabal- Akorioan-Sibilo. Cattle were the most affected species in terms of migration especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone whereby they were expected to be within their usual grazing sites but most of them were yet to come back. Projected livestock migration If the June-July-August (JJA) does not perform well, then escalation of livestock movement both within and outside the county is likely to pick up with more animals moving to Laikipia, West Pokot and Turkana counties. Livestock diseases and mortalities Contiguous Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Foot and Mouth disease (FMD), Lumpy skin disease (LSD), Mange, Sheepgoat pox and new Newcastle in poultry were the main livestock diseases prevailing in the county (Table 11) while livestock mortality rates were normal at two percent. Table 11: Livestock diseases Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Birth rate The general birth rates declined slightly during the period under review across all the livelihood zones as the forage conditions were not in good conditions during the conception period. The poor forage conditions had affected the body condition hence affecting the birth rates. Water for Livestock The main water sources for livestock were pansdams, borehole, rivers and springs across the various livelihood zones (Table 12). The average return distances from the water sources was normal in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones, the return distances were slightly above the LTA. The increased return distances in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was attributed to decline in the available water due to poor recharge and high evaporation of surface-based water sources due to the prevailing high temperatures. Table 12: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average distances (Km) Expected duration to last Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1 month Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs, bore holes Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1 month Throughout pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, traditional river wells Streams, water pans, Boreholes 1 month 3 months Bore-holes, water pans, traditional river wells Water-pans, Bore- holes, rivers 1 month 3 months Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination done Sub-county wise Sheep and goats Ring vaccination done Eldama Ravine Koibatek, LembusPekerra Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Baringo south Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases No vaccination done Kimorok Goats 30 cases No vaccination done Baringo North Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases No vaccination done Kimorok Goats 30 affected No vaccination done Rabies All wards No deaths 200 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Saimo- Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 22,000 livestock dewormed Livestock watering frequency In terms of watering frequency, it was normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, the watering frequencies was less than LTA (Table 13). Table 13: Watering frequency Livelihood Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping pastoral 3.1.4 Impacts on availability The long rains season is critical in food security in the county as it provides over 80 percent of the food requirements for its residents. Food availability is expected to stabilize in the next one month due to the expected crop harvest although the county will still experience some food deficit due to crop failures that were occasioned by poor rainfall distribution. Livestock productivity is also on a recovery path and therefore milk production is expected to contribute to food availability although production levels are not yet within the normal level, implying that milk consumption deficit will still continue to be felt in the next 1-2 months. Cereal stocks were still very low compared to LTA but this is expected to change in the next 1-2 months as households embark on harvesting of various crops in the county, a factor that is likely to enhance food consumption at the households. 3.2 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North sub county, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty East and West sub counties, Marigat and Kabel in Baringo South sub county, Majimoto and Emining in Mogotio sub county, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub county. All the markets were operational as they were well stocked with various commodities although cereal prices including maize were still very high compared to LTA. On the other hand, livestock prices were on an improving trend due to the ongoing recovery in livestock body condition for all species. The demand for livestock animals was higher than the supply as most farmers opted to keep their animals for fattening and reproduction following an improvement in forage conditions. There were less buyers for livestock in feeder markets found within Tiaty areas due to security tensions, a factor that was affecting supply of animals in major livestock markets such as Nginyang. As for the food commodities, most of the maize was coming from Uganda though some few stocks had started coming from neighboring counties such as Uasin Gishu, a factor that had started pushing down maize prices. The markets were well supplied with leafy vegetables, fruits and Irish potatoes whose prices had significantly gone down compared to the previous assessment and were being sourced from within the county. 3.2.1 Market prices Maize prices Maize prices did undergo a significant increment during the period under review, rising by 16 percent from March when the average price was at Kshs 94kg to Kshs 109kg by June (Figure 3). By June, the prices were higher than the short-term average (STA) at this time of the year by 77 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households were depending on retailers for the maize which was being sourced from the neighbouring counties. However, by July, the maize prices declined by 11 percent compared to June and this was attributed to the ongoing maize harvest both within the county and in the neighbouring counties and this trend may continue for the next two months. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 100 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg Goat prices During the period under review, there was a consistent goat price increment of 14 percent from an average of Kshs 2,565 in March to Kshs 2,920 in May (Figure 4). However, by June, there was a slight decline in the price by two percent compared to the previous month and was fetching at Ksh.2,869 per head and rose slightly to Kshs 2,950 by July which was above STA by 13 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,767 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The low prices in the Agropastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that has affected market operations. The improving price trend was attributed to improving body conditions in the county. Moreover, farmers were not under any 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices - July 2023 Figure 3: Maize prices pressure to sale their animals as they opted to keep them for fattening and restocking due to availability of sufficient browse and livestock water 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (ToT) were below the LTA and falling outside the seasonal range for the entire assessment period, a factor that was contributed by high maize prices. As from March to May, there was some marginal improvement in the terms of trade due to the improvement in goat prices although these gains were lost in June as a result of increment in maize prices and a slight decline in goat prices. By July, terms of trade were at 30.7 which was an increase of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 5). This has been attributed to stable goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 35 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 43 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 22.2. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to decline due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and neighbouring counties Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices - July 2023 Upper llimit Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 14. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. In the Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the crops were grown as cash crops which served as the main source of income Table 14: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Agro-Pastoral Irrigated Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells (Table 15). Normally, water sources are mainly concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming Kgs of maize bought from sale of a Terms of Trade - July 2023 Figure 5: Terms of trade and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Several open water sources were operating below their normal capacities whereby river Nginyang., Endao, Wasseges, Kakabul among others were almost dry. Water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo North sub counties were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally. In isolated cases, Kapkchelukuny water pans in Mogotio Sub-county were recharged close to their normal capacities The available water is likely to last for one to two months in Pastoral areas while in Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to at least 50 percent of their normal capacity was expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones was unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes were operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Table 15: Water sources Distance to water sources and waiting time The average distances to domestic water sources were stable at 3.5 to 4.5 km in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal (Table 16). The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5 km in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones with minimal increasing trends. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 1 - 3 minutes which is above normal while in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral areas it was between 3-5 minutes. Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operational No. of Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Normal Duration that water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Holes Over 6 Months months stable 2.Water 1 2 Months Months 30 - 40 3.Springs 1 - 2 Months Months 20 - 30 Agro - Holes Over 6 Months months stable Water 1 2 Months Months 20 - 30 3. Springs 1-2Months months 10 - 20 Mixed Farming Holes Over 6 Months months stable 2. Springs Over 3 Months Months 40 - 50 3.Rivers Over 3 Months Months 40 - 50 Irrigated Cropping 1. Rivers 3months months 20 -30 2.Shallow Wells 3-4months months Reducing Discharge 3. Swamps Over 3 Months stable Cost of water and Consumption Water was free at open water sources while the cost of water at developed water sources was generally stable at ksh.3-5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day was normal at 20 25 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone and 12-15 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zone compared to normal. About 10 20 percent of households in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria Table 16: Water distances, cost, time and consumption 3.2.5 Food consumption Food consumption score Ward livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Kshs. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3.5 4.5 3.5 - .4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 12- 15 12-15 3 3.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 12 - 55 11-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 15 - 20 20-25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 20-25 100.0 120.0 Acceptable Borderline Food consumption score Figure 6: Food consumption score During the season under review, a significant proportion of households within the Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption score whose score was between 31-40 percent (Figure 6). This was attributed to food consumption gaps that were prevalent in this zone following failed rainfall seasons in the last three years which affected livestock production, a sector that is a key source of food and income. In the Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the households had acceptable food consumption score. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) During the reporting period, households in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones were adopting more coping strategies as a way of adjusting to food consumption gaps that were being experienced by household members (Figure 7). This was due to the cumulative impacts of the previous failed rains which affected both food and livestock production. Among the strategies that were being applied include skipping of meals, reduced meal portions, consuming less preferred food stuff among others. Irrigated Agro pastoral Figure 7:CSI 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continued to be the leading cause morbidity county compared previous assessment. The number of children upper respiratory tract infection in 2022 was higher compared to the other years same period. The chart (Figure 8) shows recorded higher morbidity cases compared to 2022 among under five population. Morbidity for General Population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload and had the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases upper respiratory infections could be attributed to low immunity as well as the onset of the cold season in the high lands. Morbidity of Underfive years Figure 8: Morbidity in under five General population Morbidity for Genelal population Figure 9: Morbidity in general population Smart survey Morbidity based on SMART survey follows the same trends as the data from KDHIS (Figure 10). 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization 30.3 22.5 69.1 13.5 Morbidity patterns-Tiaty 24.7 16.0 80.7 12.6 90.0 Disease incidence- Baringo NS and South Figure 10: Morbidity-SMART SURVEY Opv 1 OPV 3 Measles Rubella 1 Imunization Coverge Figure 11: Immunization Data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2023 was above the national target of 80 percent as compared to 2022 same period (Figure 11). The data showed that all antigens were above the acceptable level of 80 percent coverage; this could be attributed to increase in intergraded Health and Nutrition outreaches in 2023 Vitamin A supplementation There has been an increase in Vitamin A supplementation and immunization coverage this year 2023, as compared to 2022 and 2021 (Figure 12). This increase could be attribute to increase in the number of outreaches supported by partners and Baringo county Government, and also continued support of Malezi Bora by partners. According to SMART Survey, Vitamin A coverage for children aged 6 11 months stood at 61.4 percent in Tiaty East and Tiaty West while it was 87 percent in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively (Smart Survey, 2023). 6 to 11Mths 12 TO 59 MONTHS 6 TO 59 Momths Vitamin A supplementation Baringo County Figure 12: Vitamin A supplementation Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding (OTP) The above chart (Figure 13) indicated that children attending OTP and SFP increased in the current year as compared to the same period last year 2022. This could be attributed to access to SFP and OPT programs through health and nutrition integrated Outreaches and availability of nutrition commodities. OTP PROGRAM Out-patient Feeding Program Baringo LTM (5-yr average) Trends of SFP program Baringo Figure 13: OTPSFP 3.3.3 Nutrition status Underweight proportion children (6-59 months) who were underweight was above the long-term average with the highest proportion percent compared to 8.2 percent in 2022 as seen in the chart (Figure 14) could attributed to cumulative decline nutrition status decreased availability of milk and increase of food prices over the last three years. Nutrition status based on GAM and SAM proportion children (6-59 months) found malnourished based on global acute malnutrition (GAM) reduced percent in 2022 to 23.3 percent in 2023, this could be attributed to intervention put in place Baringo Government, Department of Health support partners (Figure 15). However, GAM rates still remained high at Critical phase 10.05 Underweight trends Jan -June (2020 2023) Figure 14: Underweight Nutrition status Figure 15: GAMSAM Children at risk of malnutrition The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month of July was 20.19 percent (Figure 16). This was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 21.8. The current proportion was above the LTA by 30 percent. The relative improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo South sub counties. The situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. Proportion of children at risk of Malnutriotion in Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition -July 2023 upper Limit lower limit Figure 16: Nutrition status by MUAC 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene Water sources According to the smart survey findings, the main water sources in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties were traditional river wells at 25 percent followed by boreholes at 15 percent (Figure 17). Hand washing practices According to the smart survey findings, over 90 percent of the household wash hands before eating with Tiaty leading at 97.7 percent (Figure 18). This was followed by washing hands after visiting toiled at 90.2 percent in Baringo North and South sub counties while Tiaty was at 37.7 percent. These habits have been sustained after COVID 19 pandemic. About 22 percent of the respondents washed hands with soap and water while 51.6 percent washed hands with water only. Compared to the previous assessment, there was a notable improvement in hand washing practices. Shallow Wells Springs Boreholes Rivers Traditional River Lakes Pans and Dams Sources Of Water In Baringo County Water sources Figure 17: Water sources Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine coverage July -Dec 2022 Coverage July to December 2023 Coverage Open defecation (bushes) () Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Baringo South Mogotio 45 Baringo North Tiaty West Tiaty East Tiaty sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County although there was an improvement when compared to the last smart survey done in 2022 (Table 17). The low coverage in Tiaty was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community and this has a negative impact on nutritional status due to possibility of upsurge of water related diseases that may affect food utilization Tiaty East and Baringo South North Figure 18: Hand washing 3.4 Food security trends Table 18: Key food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2023 Long rains assessment, July, 2023 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Agro-pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Good-Fair Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day Agro-pastoral 10-15 Agro-pastoral 11-15 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species 12-15 Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,446 2,950 Distance to grazing Agro-pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-17 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Pastoral-17.8 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 County-14 Agro-Pastoral-17 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Table 19: Enrolment Term I 2023 Term II 2023 Indicate Increase () Decrease (-) Enrollment Girls Total Girls Total 22,215 24,303 46,518 22,144 24,261 46,411 Primary 66,476 61,527 128,003 66,490 61,442 127,861 Junior Secondary 8,109 7,493 15,602 8,109 7,493 15,602 Senior secondary 27,075 26,786 53,861 27,688 26,689 54,384 Baringo comprises of 1,119 ECDE centers with an enrolment of 46,411 children with boys comprising of 22,144 and girls 24,267 in the current term (Table 19). Compared to the previous term, the enrolment was at 46,518 comprising of 22,215 boys and 24,303 girls. The decline (0.2 percent) in enrolment at ECDE level was attributed to delay in school meals Program supply, insecurity challenges in some parts of Baringo South, Tiaty and Baringo North sub counties, and transfer of pupils to other schools. There were 740 primary schools with a population of 127,861 pupils with boys comprising of 66,419 and girls 61,442 compared to the previous term of 128,003 with boys being 66,476 and girls at 61,527. The decline (0.1 percent) in enrolment was attributed to delayed school meals program, interintra county transfers, teen pregnancies, child labor among other reasons. In secondary schools, there were 189 schools with a combined enrolment of 54,384 students with boys being 27,688 and girls at 26,689 in the current term compared to the previous term of 53,861 with boys being 27,075 and girls at 26,786. The positive deviation in enrolment (one percent) was attributed to the 100 percent transition government policy, new admissions, availability of school meals programs, availability of bursaries and scholarships. Enrolment in Junior secondary schools was stable in comparison to the previous term. There were cases of dropouts in ECDE whereby a total of 107 children (71 boys and 36 girls) dropped out due to nomadism. In primary schools, a total of 142 students (57 boys and 85 girls) dropped out which was attributed to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurityviolence, nomadism, chronic illness, truancy and teen pregnancies. Whereas there was an increase in enrollment in secondary schools, some schools in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties experienced dropout and absenteeism due to lack of school fees, insecurities, pregnanciesearly marriage, transfers, lack of school fees, indulgence into boda boda business among other reasons. Note: There are 534 public Junior Secondary School JSS domiciled in primary schools totaling with total enrolment of 15,602 comprising of 8,109 boys and 7,493 girls. 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season The main water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water bowsers, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools with no access to safe water sources were 620 ECDE centers, 486 primary schools and 35 secondary schools. There were 678 ECDE, 468 primary schools 154 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting infrastructure and some of them applied chlorine to treat water. 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains and none of the school infrastructure was damaged during the review period. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the season under review, a number of students were affected by upper respiratory infections and were treated by health personnel. The students also benefitted from deworming and vitamin A supplementation from the Ministry of health. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and five secondary schools and number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and three secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits during the second term which were issued by the Government. There were cases of child labour prevalent among the vulnerable groups and occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 3.6 Child protection Baringo is one of the counties that experienced prolonged drought. As a measure to ensure the protection and response to child protection issues during emergencies questionnaires were provided to collect qualitative data on the effects of drought to children and the kind of child protection issues that emerged as a result of the drought. The data was collected by Child Protection Volunteers for the two days of field assessment the CPVs covered five out of the seven sub counties. They were able to cover Baringo North, Marigat, Tiaty East, Mogotio and Baringo Central to establishing the effects of drought to children and the child protection concerns that emerged. Child migration Out of one hundred and seventy (170) persons interviewed; 60 reported migration due to insecurity while 30and 10 reported famine and poverty. The children in this category moved out of Baringo County with their parents due sever consequence of drought. Most children who migrated from the county went to the following counties; Nakuru, Laikipia, Uasin gishu, Nairobi Family separation When analysis was done for status of separated children, 65 of the respondents are of the opinion that children are separated from their parent due to lack of food and other basic needs. 20 of the respondent reported separation necessitated by abuses and harsh environment at home. Child marriage and lack of parental support has been indicated by 15 by those who were interviewed. However, no cases of refugee children were reported Violence against children, GBV Due to drought there were cases of violence against children that were reported that included Sexual violence, Neglect cases, psychosocial violence, Child trafficking, corporal punishment and child labor.; Incidences of children and women engaging in transactional sex for commodities like food, sanitary pads and water was reported by 48 of the respondent. Sub counties affected by transactional sex of children and women were; Marigat, Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North. Child marriage The drought situation has contributed to incidence of child marriage. Besides challenges associated with drought, some of the factors that aggravated child marriage are; neglect by parents and caregivers, orphan hood, poverty, teenage pregnancies that forced most of the girls to in fall into marriage. In all the five sub-counties where the survey took place, child marriage was reported Teenage pregnancies Teenage pregnancies incidences were also cited in the data collection exercise. 52 girls 10-14 years and 946 girls 15-19 years have been recorded as teenage pregnancy cases. Girls would lack provision of basic needs and engage in sex to obtain essential items like pads, sex for food and money. Other reasons cited was poverty, school dropout that was worsened by drought and girls engaging in unprotected sex. All the five sub-counties reported teenage pregnancies which has been associated with peer pressure, poverty and absence of parental guidance. Children with disability Associated with taboo and other cultural stigmatization, Parents have a tendency of hiding children with disability making it difficult to provide for interventions for them. These children have difficulties in interacting and socializing with other children. Special needs children requiring specialized care have been reported.in all the sub-counties. They experience neglect, stigma and lack of education. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to the County Meteorological department, the June-July-August (JJA) rains will be near normal with the peak being experienced in August According to FEWSNET forecast, there is a possibility of above average October to December short rains in the county which may result to isolated incidents in flood prone areas. Market prices for livestock are expected to improve due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition while cereal market is likely to come down due to the expected crop harvest both within and outside the county. Forage conditions are expected to improve fairly as a result of the expected JJA rains. Additional feed supplements are likely to be realized from crop residues of the harvested and failed crops in the Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming livelihood zones Livestock body condition for cattle and other livestock species will stabilize due to the expected stability in forage conditions across livelihood zones Water access and availability will continue to be below normal but may improve towards the end of August if the JJA rains performs well. Household food stocks will improve fairly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated Cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood as farmers are expected to have a modest crop harvest. Resource based conflict will be minimal for the next three months The country will have political stability that enhances limited disruption of movement of goods and services. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Food consumption gaps are expected to decline particularly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones where farmers are likely to have modest crop harvest. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, access to cereals will improve due to the expected price reduction of cereals. On the other hand, range land conditions are expected to remain fair to good hence resulting in improved pastures and browse availability. Moreover, livestock will greatly benefit from crop residues resulting from the harvested crops and the failed crops hence resulting in improved livestock productivity especially in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. There will be marginal improvement in milk production which might see milk prices declining slightly. Household herd size will remain the same as birth rates are not expected to change much. Market operations are expected to remain normal with livestock prices improving gradually while cereal prices will decline slightly following the expected completion of crop harvest. Terms of trade are therefore expected to improve mostly for the Pastoral households. Water access and availability will remain fair as the JJA rains are expected to provide limited recharge to water sources. The trekking distances to water points are therefore expected to remain within the seasonal range while waiting time at water sources will remain normal. Water consumption at the household level will remain normal to above normal across all livelihood zones while cost of water will remain normal. Water quality will remain fair due to the expected limited recharge of water sources by the JJA rains. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to readily available green vegetables and fruits which are mostly being sourced from within the county. In the Pastoral areas, access to a variety of food stuff including vegetables and fruits will improve due to the expected drop in their market prices. Households are expected to reduce adoption of severe coping strategies as a means of accessing food due to the expected marginal improvement in food availability and reduced cereal prices. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain slightly above normal but stable due to the ongoing interventions. November-December-January The short rains season of October-December are expected to compliment the food security gains made from the long rains. Trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock are expected to stabilize and remain within the seasonal range. Forage conditions are most likely to remain fairly stable, a factor that is likely to sustain livestock productivity in terms of body condition, carcass weight, milk production among others. Limited recharge of rivers will likely take place hence benefitting irrigated agriculture to some extent. Market operations are expected to remain normal with stability of food commodity prices being experienced. Livestock prices are expected to be normal to above normal due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Food consumption will be much better due to availability of cereal and pulses stocks at the household level. In the Pastoral zone, its expected that the prices of food commodities will have come down and therefore access to food items in the markets will improve due to the enhanced terms of trade. Malnutrition cases are expected to decline marginally due to the impact of having consumed milk and other food stuffs. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase was in phase two (Stressed). Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was in phase two (Stressed). The Irrigated livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had acceptable food consumption score at 38 percent, although the Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest proportion of households not having acceptable food consumption during the period under review with eight percent and 57 percent of the sampled households having poor and borderline food consumption score by June. On consumption based coping strategies (rCSI), about 39 percent, 24 percent and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis strategies respectively by June. On livelihood coping, about zero, 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households in June had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 22 percent by June which was above LTA by 25 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County Rank (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) High malnutrition, Low latrine coverage, Poor rainfall distribution, insecurity, Invasive species, Livestock diseases, Poor dietary, High food prices, vibrant livestock feeder markets Baringo North Insecurity, Crop failure, paste diseases, rainfall distribution, High food prices, Wrong choice of crop enterprises, Livestock Diseases Mogotio Crop failure, rainfall distribution, Reduced river flows Baringo South rainfall distribution, Insecurity Invasive species (Prosopis juliflora), Water- borne diseases Baringo Central Better rains, condition Eldama Ravine Better Rains, Good crop condition 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Through the office of the County Commissioner, the County received a total 24,080 bags of rice (50kg) and 14,000 bags of beans (50kg) for the period of March-June which was distributed to the vulnerable populations in all the sub counties except Ravine. Kenya Red cross society distributed relief food to 2,000 households in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Kolowa, Loyamorok, and Silale areas. NDMA distributed about 2000 food hampers in June with assorted food stuff that comprised of uji mix, maize flour, green grams, rice, cooking fat and salt. World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household will receive KSh 11,200. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. The program runs from March to August 2023. About 2,778 households are targeted under the 1st phase received 11,200 during the month (totaling to KSh. 31,113,600 while the 2,050 are still on pipeline. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor and Endao sub locations. Once recruitment is accomplished then each household will receive KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches of KSh. 20,000, 45,000, 45,000. 5.2.2 None food interventions AGRICULTURE Intervention beneficiari Implemente Impacts terms of food security Frame Countywi Resilient building program to households Saimo Soi, Bartabwa Sacho, , ChuroAma ya, , Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus Kisanana 9,725 Government of Baringo, Restoration rehabilitation of livelihoods destroyed by Novembe r 2020- r 2024 Affruitation program Government of Baringo Increased area under fruits cover environmenta l conservation and food security million Baringo Central, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine Promotion of climate smart Agriculture interventions Kapropita, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Koibatek, L.Perkerra KCSAP Improved adaptation to climate change 300m 2018- Agrinutrition support DRLSP, Government Improve household food security Million r 2023 Promotion of farmer service centres Marigat, Mogotio, Kabarnet, Kabartonjo, Eldama Ravine Government and WFP Improve access inputs farmers promote enterpreneurs Million Nutrition Sensitive and Utilization initiatives 25,000 WFP, SHA, Government of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household food nutrition and stability security 300 M 2020- LIVESTOCK counties Capacity building of Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Partners Well Infirmed staff farmers best practices Througho Mogotio Construction of livestock feed store 200HH BCGDRLS Improved pasture conservation MARCH- WATER Water trucking Institutions Institutions 50,000 going On going rehabilitation 380HH BCG, NG, KRCS, going On going PVC Tanks Installations positioning SHA Save the Children 0.45M Partially Comple Partially Complete Construction of New water Projects 1560HH BCG, NG, 1year On going Rehabilitation of BHs 2320 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV 1 Year On going Drilling and Equipping of 2620 HH BCG, NG, 1 Year On going Capacity building on Sustainable water management 2130 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 Year On going Catchment protection HEALTH Sustain Mass screening and referrals facilities in the County Provision of supplements Integrated outreach services 120 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 7 sub counties 1,873,2 SMART Survey 5.0 M UNICE EDUCATION Baring North, Tiaty y East , M ogotio, Marigat -Parents provide fire wood, utensils for cooking meals in schools - proper storage of food stuff at primary schools parents 3 months i.e one Baringo Central Koibatek, Baringo Central Purchase of food stuff from nearby counties of Uasin gishu and Nakuru, Provision of relief food by national, county government 29 primary schools primary schools Ministry of education Ministry of interior and national coordination Education partners eg red cross 3 months i. e one and education partners Baring North, Tiaty y East , Mogotio, Marigat -Parents provide fire wood, utensils for cooking meals in schools - proper storage of food stuff at primary schools parents 3 months i.e. one Child protection Baringo North transfer and HISP support children in distress 10,000 government Quarterly Marigat transfer and HISP support children in distress 9,000 government Quarterly Tiaty East transfer and HISP 9,000 government Quarterly support children in distres Mogotio transfer and HISP support children in distres 8,500 government Quarterly Baringo Central transfer and HISP support children in distres 12,000 government Quarterly Koibatek transfer and HISP support children in distres 8,000 government 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Tiaty transfer and HISP 8,000 government Quarterly 2023 LRA security (Worst best) Population Estimated proportion immediate food assistance per sub county Wards Estimated proportion need of immediate assistance () Per Ward Tiaty 73,424 35,000 (48) Silale 40-50 Loiyamorok 40-45 TangulbeiKorossi 20-30 ChuroAmaya 20-25 Tiaty East 79,923 25,000 (31) Tirioko 40-45 Kolowa 30-40 Ribkwo 30-40 Baringo North 104,871 20,000 (19) Barwessa 20-30 SaimoKipsaraman SaimoSoi 40-45 Kabartonjo Bartabwa 40-45 Mogotio 91,104 10,000 (11) Mogotio 10-15 Emining 25-30 Kisanana 25-30 Baringo South 90,104 10,000 (11) Mukutani 30-40 Marigat 25-30 Ilchamus 20-25 Mochongoi 15-20 Baringo Central 96,951 5,000 (5) (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Kabarnet (salawa) Sacho Tenges Kapropita Ewalel Chapchap Eldama Ravine 129,535 5000 (4) Lembus Ravine Lembus Kwen Koibatek Lembus Perkerra Mumberesmaji mazuri 5.3.2 None food interventions AGRICULTURE Sub County Intervention beneficiarie Proposed Implementers Requi Resou Available Resource Frame nutrition support 1. Purchase and distribution of Traditional value crops. 2. Construction of farm ponds 3. Supply of drip multi-storey gardens vegetable seeds National Government, Government WFP, ELRP, (Kshs millio Staff Value addition of produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum Millet) through milling and fortification of flour and Market linkages Mogoti Mariga Tenges Government of Baringo Staff, Groups identified support 2020- Crops Post- harvest management Construction cereal stores National Government, Government, (Kshs Millio Staff Total population in need of food assistance 110,000 Purchase and distribution of hermetic bags Purchase and distribution of solar development partners LIVESTOCK BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty (LSD, CCPP) Tiaty, BNorth (LSD) Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming Disease surveillance 100,000 Cattle, 270,000 goats 50,000 Sheep BCG, FAO and other Development partners -Baringo North -Tiaty(E -Baringo South Mogotio Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 across 6 sub- counties 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Loruk, Amaya, Nginyang and Kolloa RenovationConst ruction of livestock Auction yards 13,000HH BCG, Partners counties Provisiojn of pasture seeds 5000HH BCGPartners counties Employment of addition extension staff to replace retirees 6,000HHs Continuo WATER Countywide 18 No. BH Water Supply Rehabilitation unity WS in 3580HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 10M 1- 6 months upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units l and livelih ACTED, USAID, NDMA, SHA, Save the Children Roof Water harvesting structures Institut ions unities l and l Zones Institutions BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, NDMA, SHA, CHILD Fund, months Stock piling of Fast-Moving Spares 24 No. community water supplies unity WS in l and 1,260 HHs ASAL areas BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 300,000 months Capacity Strengthening on WASH Sustainable Water Management and Catchment protection Water supplie l and l Zones 30 No. Community Water supplies BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, months Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc l and agro l Zones 3,000HHs BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, Months Water Governance and Management Whole Baringo Water BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, Months Policy development Resources Users ACTION AID, USAID, NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP, Drilling and Equipping of strategic 18 No. BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas l and agro l Zones 1,900HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 10 M 1 - 5 yrs Construction and Upgrading of 16 No. potential Low Cost Water Supplies l and agro l Zones 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs Construction of 4 No. Small dams for domestic and irrigation water l and agro l Zones 2400HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs Desilting of Intakes , Water Pans and Dams l and agro l Zones 3900HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs Capacity Strengthening on Wash Sustainable Water Management Resources Mobilization Conflict Resolution and Management and Catchment protection l and agro l Zones 50 No. Water Supplies BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs HEALTH counties Vitamin A Supplementation 90,449 (children 6 months) July - Dec All sub counties Supplementation 20,000 July-Dec All Sub counties Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 8,971 under five children July-Dec Counties prone to disasters Capacity Building on MIYCN- E Children 0- 23 months Pregnant Lactating Mothers KRCMOH 1.2 M July Dec All sub counties Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) 41,533 Children birth 2 years 4.1 M July-Dec Hot sport Areas Integrated outreaches Population in the hard to reach hot sport area BCGKRC and UNICEFWFP 20.0 M July- Dec All sub counties Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women All pregnant women 5.35M July-Dec All sub counties Deworming 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M July-Dec EDUCATION Marigat,Tiat y East, Tiaty West, Baringo North OF food stores in schools Proper roads maintenance 519 schools education partners, county government, parents stores 1,000,0 00 519 519,000 million Roads quantity and civil enginee estimate",
        "Baringo_LRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2022 The 2022 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2022. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was late in the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March and it was characterized by uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution while cessation was normal in the last dekad of May. Area under rainfed maize production was near normal but the projected yield is expected to be 60 percent of long-term average (LTA) due to poor rainfall performance, crop pest infestation, crop failure and high cost of farm inputs. Household stocks are at 29 percent of LTA and only available in Eldama Ravine sub-county and expected to last for less than two months. Area under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and therefore the projected yield will be above normal for most of the crops but the potential yield vis a vis the prepared acreage will not be realized due to reduced water flow in the rivers. Forage conditions are in poor to fair conditions in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and expected to last for two to three months while livestock body condition for cattle is poor to fair. Most of the cattle in the Pastoral livelihood zone are yet to return to their normal wet season grazing fields due to poor pasture conditions. Milk production and consumption is still below LTA but showing marginal signs of recovery. In Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones, there was above normal livestock mortality rate of 3-5 percent for cattle at the start of the season due to drought impacts, against a normal of less than two percent. Market operations were mainly normal but characterized by very high food prices especially for maize while livestock prices for cattle were below LTA but near normal for goats and sheep. Terms of trade have been on a deteriorating trend and stood at 29 percent by June thus weakening purchasing power for Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. The most common sources of water were boreholes and water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while rivers, shallow wells and water springs were the most common in other livelihood zones. Most of the water pans had 20-30 percent of their normal capacity in Pastoral zone and 40-50 percent in Agro- Pastoral zone. The cost of water at water source was normal but waiting time and household water consumption were below LTA but on an improving trend. A significant proportion of households in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones do not have acceptable food consumption score at 56 and 37 percent respectively while households applying food based coping strategies (rCSI) were 39, 24 and 37 percent for none coping, stressed and crisis respectively. For livelihood coping strategies, about 46 percent of households did not apply any coping while 32 and 22 percent had stressed and crisis strategies. There was a marginal increase in enrolment of learners across all levels of education compared to the previous term by 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary levels respectively. For school feeding program, about 87 and 68 percent of learners in ECDE and primary schools were under schools meals programs respectively. The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase 3 (Crisis). The Pastoral, Marginal mixed and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis), while the Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase 1 (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... i 3.1.1 Crops production .......................................................................................................................... 4 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................................ 6 3.1.3 Livestock production.................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Impact on availability................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Market operations ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.2 Market Prices ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4 Income sources ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Water access and availability ..................................................................................................... 15 3.2.6 Food consumption ...................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.7 Coping strategy .......................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ............................................................................................... 19 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ......................................................................... 20 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity ......................................................................................... 21 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene ............................................................................................................... 22 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) .................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season .......................................................................... 25 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season ......................................................................... 25 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ............................................................................. 26 3.5.4 Inter sector links ......................................................................................................................... 26 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................................. 28 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .................................................................................................................... 29 5.2.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 30 5.2.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 30 5.3.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 34 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo borders Turkana Samburu Counties North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers approximate 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) Sub-counties, namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Long Rains Food and Nutrition Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed at ascertaining at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2022 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food and nutrition security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards and determine the impact of the shocks on livelihoods. The exercise further assessed the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutrition status and socio-economic conditions, take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience and finally to assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 long rains assessment exercise was conducted by a multi-sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment livelihood Agropastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated crop Others Figure 1: Livelihood populations was conducted from 4th to 15th July 2022. The process started with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team finally drafted the county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late compared to the previous seasons and was observed during the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March. The amount received was mostly below normal in most parts of the county translating to about 79-90 percent of the normal rains for the season (Figure 2). Parts of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub- counties received about 51-75 percent of the normal rains. Only ChuroAmaya ward in Tiaty sub-county received normal rains for the season under review. The distribution in time was poor with about 42 percent of the total amount of rains for the season being received during the third dekad of April while spatial distribution was uneven. The cessation of the season was normal during the third dekad of May. The county has also experienced some off-season rains mostly during the month of July with fair temporal and even spatial distribution. 2.2 InsecurityConflict During the season under review, the county did experience sporadic cases of banditry attacks mostly in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The affected wards include SaimoSoi, Bartabwa, Muchongoi and part of Kollowa (Kipnai) whereby about 4,000 households were affected. These banditry attacks affected land preparatory activities including digging and planting due to displacement and tension. The national government has imposed a dawn to dusk curfew in Tiaty sub-county in an effort to restore peace. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks Crop failure A number of farms are likely to report crop failure across the county due to poor performance of the season whereby the most affected crop was beans. High food commodity prices Cereal prices were extremely high especially for maize crop whereby the prices increased by over 100 percent compared to the long-term mean (LTA). Prices of other food stuff including fruits and vegetables were also very high thus posing access challenges. Hazards Crop pests African Army Worms There was an invasion African army worms during the mid-season affecting about 10 percent of the farms. However, the pests are disappearing slowly due to the impact of the off-season rains. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The long rains season is very important for food and nutrition security as the county heavily depends on it for the production of various crops and recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes, contributing to over 90 percent of the county annual food requirements. In the year 2022 the County received below normal rains which affected land preparation and planting for crops. Most of the farmers did not plant during the season and this reduced the area under rain fed crop farming, for instance, area under maize and beans was 96 and 78 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Table 1 : Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Income Agro-Pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture The area planted during the current season with maize was near normal at 96 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this is due to depressed season, the most affected sub-counties being Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty. The crops were showing signs of water stress in all lower areas of the county that might end up into crop failure but along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine there was a good crop There were reported cases of infestation by field pests whereby about 21 percent of the area planted was affected by the African army worms across the county and the dry spells that occurred within the season created a favorable condition for the multiplication of the pest. The projected production for maize is expected to be about 60 percent of the LTA in the county and this was contributed by crop failure in county estimated to be at 56 percent. The estimated crop failure rates are 35, 80, 65, 55, and 70 percent for Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, and Baringo South sub counties respectively while 55 percent of the crops in the irrigated areas is likely to fail. The area under sorghum decreased by 13 percent due to delayed onset of the season. The crops conditions are poor to fair due to moisture stress and even though the county has received some off-season rains, some of these crops will not be able to recover. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans at harvesting stage, but this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage whereby they are being affected by moisture stress leading to wilting. Table 2: Rainfed agriculture Area planted during 2022 Long rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the long rains season 2022 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the long rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 39,640 41,133 594,600 1,028,325 2. Beans 17,650 22,505 264,750 450,100 3. Sorghum 1,580 1,800 1,300 18,000 Irish Potatoes 2,000 1,289 156,750 13,020 Irrigated crop production The area under maize was above the LTA by 640 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who were able to access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly done in three sub-counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation schemes in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was decreased river water flow which was caused by depressed rains hence 55 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income generation especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. About 20 to 40 percent of the prepared acreage under irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. Table 3:Irrigated agriculture planted during the 2022 Long rains season Long Term Average (3 years) planted during Long rains season (ha) 2022 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 8,000 1,500 Beans Tomatoes 1,820 1,235 Water melons Seed Maize 3,500 1,524 78,052 155,150 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current Current Current Households 84,654 290,864 Traders 98,645 34,928 3,087 1,056 Millers 22,400 8,382 AidNCPB Totals 205,699 334,174 3,095 1,059 Households The stocks held by households was 29 percent of the LTA (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 45 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for their stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board but with high prices currently the farmers are releasing them to the markets. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs in preparation for the long rains season. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA at 282 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 80 percent of the households depend on the markets for their food supply and are mostly to be found in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers Millers stocks are above LTA at 267 percent and this was due to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). The looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices also contributed to the high stocks being held. Traders and millers have more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones there are no stock due to poor harvest. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry periods and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Currently, the hazards affecting the sector include; under-performance of long rains, resulting to poor pastures and browse, insecurity and livestock diseases. Table 5 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Percent contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Pasture and browse conditions Forage conditions were below the expected level, in both quantity and quality, and this was attributed to poor performance of four consecutive rainfall seasons. The pastures were expected to last for 1.5 months, in both Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and one month in the Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones (Table 6). Browse was in fair to good condition across the livelihood zones. Some invasive species are present in the Pastoral livelihood particularly in Tiaty West sub-county. Factors limiting forage access were insecurity tensions around Saimosoi and Bartabwa wards, Arabal area in Baringo South sub county and Kapedo areas bordering Turkana County. African Army Worm invasion was reported in the county affecting crops, which would have later provided feeds as agricultural by-products. The worms also affected germination and sprouting of pastures hence reducing their development. Table 6: Pasture and browse conditions Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration last (Months) access Condition Projected Duration last (month) access Mixed farming Fair to limit Fair to limit cropping Fair to limit Fair to limits limit Fair to limit Fair to Pasture Conservation: Table 7 shows the pasture conservation status in the county. The existing bales are extremely below the holding capacity of the county stores and what was being consumed during the season was mostly imported from outside the county as internal production declined significantly due to poor rainfall performance. There is Mogotio Livestock Improvement Centre which has hay balers and does services to the farmers in hay baling. The quantity of crop residues as forage will decline due to expected poor crop performance, whereby more than 50 percent of the crop will fail at a young stage which will not be sufficient to compensate for the normal residues realized during harvesting time. Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 10,500 2,500 2 are held by KVDA 88 Held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 3,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. ERavine 600,000 130,000 80 by farmers 10 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 280,000 4,520 100 by farmers from community stores and traders Mogotio 570,000 120,000 75 By farmer groups 25 by individuals Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 cropping BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 (NB: LCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, LCS 2Poor, LCS 3Fair, LCS 4 Good, LCS 5 Very Good) The livestock body condition slightly improved compared with the previous assessment. The improvement was attributed to gradual improvement of the contributing factors such as forage, water, trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. The body condition was expected to improve further if rainfall performance improves. COVID-19 has not been reported as having affected Livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Table 8 shows livestock body condition score by livelihood zones. Tropical livestock unit (LTU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit The average TLUs in poor income households were 4.0 against a normal of 4.5 while in medium income households average TLUs were 7.1 against a normal of 9. Compared to the last assessment, the TLUs for both poor and medium income households declined slightly and this was mainly attributed to the above normal livestock mortality rates during the drought period observed at the beginning of the year. Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Average Birth rate The calving, kidding and lambing rates were below normal at 2.5 percent and this was attributed to deterioration of forage conditions. The poor rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance to water points. The calving, kidding and lambing rates depend on status of pastures across all livelihood zones during conception period. Milk Production and consumption The prices of milk went up as a result of decrease in supply, which emanated from decline in production (Table 10). Consumption was also lower than the normal. The low milk production was attributed to deterioration in forage conditions both in quantity and quality whereby this was due to poor rainfall performance. Table 10: Milk production Livelihood zone Milk production per household (Lts) Milk consumption per household (Lts) Prices (KES) Current Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-Pastoral Livestock migration During the season under review, there were above normal livestock migration between the months of March and April at the peak of the drought that was being witnessed in the county. The migrations were triggered by search for pastures which have been in poor condition or depleted for some time. Others were also due to insecurity. The migratory routes included ChuroAmaya in Laikipia County, KolloaTirioko in West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin areas, Silale- Malaso at Turkana County border, Kasarani, Tangulbei-LaikipiaMochongoiBeyong Malaso (MoruakirinMarti), Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo and Mogotio in Rongai sub- county. After the onset of the long rains, all county livestock started normal migrations which were internal. Projected trend of Migration Most of the cattle are yet to return to their normal wet grazing fields in the Pastoral zone due to the poor conditions of the pastures. If the off-season rains are not sustained, then pasture recovery may not be realized and therefore trigger another phase of livestock migration within and outside the county. The migratory routes are likely to be the same as the above ones. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases The main endemic diseases in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP) and Peste des Petit Ruminants (PPR) (Table 11). Other disease cases for Lumpy Skin Disease and Foot Mouth Disease were reported. Vaccination against LSD, CCPP was done in Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub-counties. Deworming was also done in the county with funding from FAO. According to the county assessment report, about 16,873 cattle succumbed to drought impacts during the period under review, raising the mortality rate to 3.5-5 percent against a normal of two percent. Most of these deaths were reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, especially in Tiaty and Mogotio sub-counties. Table 11: Livestock diseases Water for Livestock Variations in water sources and trekking distance are due to low recharge level and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels are at 30 to 40 percent in Pastoral livelihood zones and 40 to 50 percent in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. There is no known effect of COVID-19 on livestock water. The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance and insecurity. Tables 12, 13 and 14 show water sources, trekking distances, expected duration to last and watering frequencies. county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported Vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattleshoats Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle Vaccinations Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination done Sub-county wise Sheep and goats Ring vaccination done Eldama Ravine Koibatek, Lembus Pekerra Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Baringo South Goat and sheep pox Losampurpur Goats and sheep 20 cases-3 deaths No vaccination done Kimorok Goats affectes-2 deaths No vaccination done Baringo North Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated Barwessa, Shoats 400 Vaccinated at Barwessa Rabies All wards No deaths 200 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 22,000 livestock dewormed Table 12: Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Agro-Pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, Streams, water pans, Boreholes Bore-holes, water pans. Water wells Water-pans, Bore-holes, rivers Table 13: Trekking distances Livelihood zone Return trekking distances (Kms) Expected duration (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Throughout Throughout Irrigated cropping Throughout Throughout Agro-Pastoral Table 14: Livestock watering frequency Livelihoo d zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Mixed Farming cropping 3.1.4 Impact on availability Rain fed crop production which provides over 90 percent of annual county food requirements during the long rains season will be poor hence the projected yield is expected to be less than 60 percent of the LTA. This implies that households will not be able to replenish their household stocks which currently stand at less than 30 of the LTA. Households are therefore expected to continue relying on markets for their food requirements for the next 12 months. Livestock productivity will be below normal especially for cattle whose body condition is yet to recover to normal conditions and therefore affect milk production and consumption. Households are expected to complement their milk requirements through purchases from the local markets. Goats are likely to recover their normal body condition due to availability of adequate browse and therefore are expected to attract better prices in the markets as a source of income, which can then be used to access food for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio, including Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock species being traded are the goats, sheep and cattle across the livelihood zones with the goats forming the bulk of the traded animals. There are fewer cattle in the markets compared to a normal year and this has been attributed to by the poor livestock body condition as farmers have opted to keep them at home for the recovery of the body condition. This has affected the cattle prices as they are lower than LTA although on an improving trend. The market conditions are generally on a gradual recovery mode following a long drought spell which affected traded animal volumes for the season under review. There were no market disruptions reported during the season and the buyers of the animals were coming from both within and outside the county including Nairobi, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu among others. The traded volumes and livestock prices are likely to pick up in the next three months as the livestock body condition improves due to the ongoing pasture and browse regeneration. On the other hand, cereals prices were extremely high compared to LTA, a factor that affected access as there were fewer buyers in the markets purchasing cereals and other food stuffs. Most of the maize was being sourced from outside the county, with some coming from the neighboring countries of Uganda and Tanzania. 3.2.2 Market Prices Maize prices The average price of a kilogram of maize increased by 32 percent from Ksh. 65 in May to Ksh 86 June (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 73 percent. The increase in maize prices was attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets as well as increased cost of transport as a result of high fuel prices in all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 90.5 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. This trend is likely to be maintained in the next three months as there is general shortage of maize in the county. 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- June 2022 Figure 3: Maize prices Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat was at Ksh. 2,506 in June, an increase of eight percent in comparison to the previous month of May (Figure 4). The price was below short-term average by eight percent. The prices were highest cropping livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,433 and lowest in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,500. Livestock body condition in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones is just recovering from the impact of drought that was experienced in the County from November last year to April this year and therefore resulting in low prices. The prices are expected to improve due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade Terms of trade declined by 18 percent from 36 in May to 29 in June (Figure 5). This was attributed to increased maize prices in comparison to the low goat prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 48 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 49 while Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 21.4. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the low terms of trade in this zone. 3.2.4 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 15. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County - June 2022 Upper llimit Figure 4: Goat prices Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in Baringo County - June 2022 Figure 5: Terms of trade livelihood zones since there was a decline n income from livestock sales as a result of poor livestock body condition. Table 15: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing 3.2.5 Water access and availability Introduction The main water sources for domestic use in all the livelihood zones are rivers, springs, boreholes, water pans, dams, lakes and shallow wells (Figure 6). Most of these sources are concentrated in Mixed Farming livelihoods zones where rainfall potential is higher as compared to Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the rivers at the moment in the Agro- Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are generally low and others have dried up due uneven distribution of rainfall. Some of the Boreholes and water supplies are not operational due to mechanical breakdowns and electricity bills thus overstretching the nearby sources. The recharge of all the water sources was fair during the season as compared to normal. The storage capacity of the open water sources is at 40 to 50 percent for the Agro-Pastoral and 20 to 30 percent for the Pastoral livelihood zones. The water levels in most of the boreholes are generally fair. Figure 6: Water sources Distances to water sources The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable by June at 3.9 km as compared to the previous month of May (Figure 7). In contrast to the long term average the distances were below normal by three percent (depicting positive trend). cropping livelihood recorded the least trekking distance of one kilometre while livelihood recorded the highest average of 4.2 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water points as a result of the off-season rains being experienced. Waiting time, cost of water and water consumption Waiting time at water sources was at 5-10 minutes for Mixed and Irrigated livelihood zones while for Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral is 20 to 40 minutes. Water consumption in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones did drastically reduce at the beginning of the season but currently improving slightly due to rainfall on-set and reduced distances to water points. The cost of water per 20 litre Jerrycan was normal at Ksh 5 at the point of source. In Pastoral livelihood zone, water consumption per person per day was 4-6 litres contrary to a normal range of 5-10litres and for Agro-Pastoral zone it was 7-12 litres against a normal of 10-15 litres. In the Mixed farming zone consumption was 14-17 litres against a normal of 15-20 litres (Table 16). Due to the depleted water sources in Pastoral livelihood zones, some community members have migrated with their herds of livestock near to water sources so as to reduce the water stress on their animals. Table 16: Trekking distance, water cost, waiting time and water consumption Livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20 litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 0.5-1 15-20 20-25 0.5-1 15-20 20-25 Agro - 10-15 10-15 15-20 15-20 10-15 10-15 Figure 7: Trekking distances 3.2.6 Food consumption Food consumption score According to the NDMA sentinel EWS data, a significant proportion of households Pastoral livelihood zones did not have acceptable food consumption score for the last four months as shown in Figure 8 and by June, proportions were at 56 and 37 percent respectively. This was contributed inability of households to access nutritious food stuffs due to high food prices coupled by poor terms of trade that are disadvantaging Pastoral households from accessing food items in the local markets. This has affected food consumption patterns whereby the number of meals per day is 1-2 against a normal of three while meal sizes have reduced compared to normal. 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Food consumption score: March-June 2022 Acceptable Borderline Figure 8: Food consumption score Milk consumption The average household milk consumption was one litre per day by June and that the consumption rate has been on an increasing trend since April after the onset of the long rains season. However, the current milk consumption rate was still below the long-term average by 29 percent (Figure 9). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litre and lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 0.7 litre. 3.2.7 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) The average County CSI was stable by June at 16 with the Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones having the highest CSI values of over 15 for the last four months as shown in Figure 10. The high CSI in these zones was contributed inadequate food availability following the prolonged drought spells witnessed in the county that forced households to adopt different strategies for survival including skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, food borrowing among others. Figure 9: Milk consumption Coping Strategy Index: March-June 2022 Agro pastoral Figure 10: Coping strategy index 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity among under-five population followed almost the same trend as in 2021 with URTI causing the most morbidity followed by malaria diarrhoea causing least morbidity (Figure 11). There was a marginal increase in the number of cases this year compared to 2021 as shown in the chart, could attributed immunity due to poor nutrition status as a result of deteriorating food consumption score and low milk consumption across all livelihood zones. Morbidity for General Population Figure 12: Morbidity in general population 52368.66667 31935.66667 8680.333333 12328.66667 General population Morbidity Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) MORBIDITY FOR UNDERFIVE POPULATION Figure 11: Morbidity patterns for under five Morbidity in the general population was higher in 2022 compared to 2021 with URTI cases causing the highest morbidity in the general population (Figure 12). However diarrhoeal case remains low and could be attributed to measure put in place to control COVID- 19 pandemic. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Figure 13: Vitamin A supplementation coverage Vitamin A supplementation coverage for the first half of 2022 was much higher than a similar period last year (Figure 13). Unlike 2021 where the coverage was below the national target of 80, in 2022 it surpassed the target. Immunization below the national target my mid-year, with Tiaty having higher coverage compared to Tiaty West (Figure 14). Figure 14: Immunization coverage Jan-April 2022 for Tiaty sub county 115.4 100.0 120.0 140.0 Jan-Jun 2021 Jan-Jun 2022 Vitamin A coverage Target TARGET 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions were above long-term average for January to May 2022 (Figure 15). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities in most health facilities in the county. Figure 15: OTP admission trends Underweight trends The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight were below the long-term average as shown Figure However, December 2021 an increase of 5.1 was recorded and this could be attributed to the worsening of nutrition status due to decrease in availability of milk and also decrease in number meals consumed per day. 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.1 2.6 Underweight Trends LTA (5-yr average) Figure 16: Underweight trend Outpatient Theraputic Program (OTP) admision trends LTM (5-yr average) Nutrition status based on Mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition in June 2022 was 19.2 compared to 9.6 percent in June 2021; an increase of 50 percent (Figure 17). The deterioration in nutrition status is attributed to the decrease in milk consumption at household level. SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey done in July in Tiaty sub -county (Pastoral livelihood zone, global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 26.4 percent which was critical while severe acute malnutrition (SAM) was at 5.3 percent. Stunting rate was at 51 percent which is among the highest in the country. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Water storage facilities were few across the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone. Most of these storage facilities did not receive water treatment chemicals. Most of the community water supplies had untreated water and the community members were expected to carry out treatment at household level. Generally, most treatment methods conveniently used at household level was boiling and use of aqua-tabs. According to the SMART survey done in July 2022 in Tiaty East and West sub-counties (Pastoral livelihood zone), only one percent of the sampled households access water from safe water sources while 99 percent do not treat their water at all. About 97 percent of the households stored their water in closed containers while 97 percent were not buying water but got it free at the sources. About 24 percent of the households were not aware of any hand washing norms and for those who practiced hand washing, about 7.0, 8.0, 68 and 30 percent did it at four critical times, after taking children to toilet, before eating meals and after visiting toilets respectively. About 52 percent of the households were washing hands using water only. Figure 17: Nutrition status based on MUAC Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub-county Latrine coverage Open defecation July to December 2022 Coverage July to December Coverage Open defecation (bushes) Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Tiaty West Tiaty Tiaty East and West sub-counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County. This is mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high case of water related diseases. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, February, 2022 Long rains assessment, July, 2022 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) pastoral Agro-pastoral Fair-Good cropping Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption (litres per person per day pastoral 8 - 12 Agro-pastoral 10-15 cropping 5 - 10 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 12 - 15 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 15 20 Pastoral-all species 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) Table 18: School enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centers, 729 primary schools and 179 secondary schools with a current enrolment of 49,494, 146,512 and 50, 770 students respectively as shown in Table 20. There was an improvement in enrolment across all levels of education compared with the previous term, translating to 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. The improvement in enrolment was attributed to schools meals program primary schools, 100 percent transition policy in secondary schools and availability of bursaries from different sources. There were minor cases of school drop outs of about 25 pupils in ECDE (14 boys and 11 girls), 140 students in primary schools (84 boys and 56 girls) and 69 students (42 boys and 27 girls) in secondary schools. Some of the reasons behind the drop out were psychological trauma, child Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,517 2,506 Distance to grazing pastoral Agro-pastoral cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-15 Agro-Pastoral-22 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-3 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline School level Current term Previous term Girls Total Girls Total 23,191 26,303 49,494 22,404 20,019 42,423 Primary 76,223 70,289 146,512 74,161 68,844 143,005 Secondary 25,626 25,144 50,770 25,232 24,506 49,738 labour, nomadism, insecurity, illnesses, lack of school fees, teenage pregnancy, indulgence in bodaboda business, early marriages among others. 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season Table 19: School meals program No of schools with schools meals program transfer CSSMP Other types of school feeding Total number ries of schools meals program Total no ries not in schools meals program Level Prima Secon total Total About 87 and 68 percent of students in ECDE and Primary schools respectively were benefiting from various forms of school meals program as shown in Table 21. The bulk of the school meals program were in kind school meals program (ISMP) for primary schools and County supported program for ECDE centers. There were no secondary school students receiving any form of school meals program. 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season The water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water tracking, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools without access to safe water sources in ECDE was 641, 261 and 50 for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. Water access and availability in schools affected retention and attendance of learners in schools and therefore influencing academic performance. There were 388 ECDE, 390 primary schools and 145 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting facilities in the county with some of them applying chemicals to treat water. 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains while no school infrastructure was reported to have been destroyed by the rains and currently no school is hosting IDPs. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the long rains ECDE, primary and secondary learners were affected by common colds and diarrhea. Some of the interventions provided by the Ministry of Health include deworming, vitamin A supplementation and regular visits by health officers. Effects of COVID-19 were still being felt i.e. continuity of learning was interrupted, change of school calendar (term dates), syllabus coverage was interrupted and school drop outs. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines was 120 ECDE, 20 primary schools and 5 secondary schools while the number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities was 15 ECDE, 10 primary schools and 3 secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits for the previous term 2022 provided by the government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particularly in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to County Meteorological department, the off-season rains of June to August are likely to be enhanced in the highlands that comprises mainly the Mixed farming livelihood zone but will be below to near normal within the low lands. According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) EWS bulletin of June 2022, food prices particularly for cereals will be above normal for the next six months as the county will not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks via local production. According to NDMA June bulletin, rangeland conditions in terms of pastures and browse will continue to be below normal conditions especially in the Pastoral areas due to poor performance of the rains. NDMA June bulletin shows that livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas will remain in poor to fair conditions for the next three months due to slow recovery of pastures. Water availability and access will remain in fair conditions due to the impacts of off- season rains of July to August and therefore affecting water consumption at household level. Security situation will remain stable due to the control measures being put in place by the government. However, the general election is likely to create some tension among the rival political candidates. Household stocks will continue to decline further as the county did not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks as a result of failure of rains for the last four seasons. Local markets will heavily rely on supplies of food from other counties (Source: Agriculture dept, Baringo County Government). Market operations will most likely remain normal. The general elections scheduled in August 2022 will be peaceful and that the ongoing political campaigns will not have major effect on food security. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months (August-January) The County will not have any household maize stocks left in the next three months as the little existing stocks will have been depleted by then leading to near total dependence on markets. The expected maize harvest will be below 50 percent and will be realized by October due to late planting, moisture stress among other factors. This therefore implies that the county will experience a food deficit for the remainder of this year and half of next since it is heavily reliant on long rains for food production. The off-season rains are expected to stimulate marginal forage recovery across the county and therefore cattle are likely to post marginal improvement in body condition leading to a slight improvement in milk production though it will still be below long- term average. Livestock prices for cattle are likely to remain below LTA while prices for goats and sheep will improve as a result of browse availability. Food prices particularly for maize will remain above LTA and therefore affecting negatively terms of trade for Pastoral households. Water access and availability will improve to fair condition and therefore relieving households in terms of trekking distances, water consumption and waiting time at water sources for at least two months. All the outcome indicators of food consumption, nutrition status and coping strategies will be poor as households are expected to experience food consumption gaps for the remainder of the year due to expected below normal crop and livestock production. The county is therefore expected to record more cases of malnutrition especially in the Pastoral areas. 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had an acceptable food consumption score of 38.2 which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 36.5. A proportion of 3.4, 44.4 and 52.2 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable FCS respectively. More households in Pastoral an Agro-pastoral livelihood zones have shifted to borderline and poor food consumption scores by June in comparison to the previous months and this was due to increasing food consumption gaps that are a result of very high food prices, below normal milk production, poor terms of trade and poor crop production. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis reduced strategies (rCSI) respectively. About 46 percent of sampled households had no livelihood coping while 32 and 21 percent of households applied stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies. The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition was stable at 19.2 but still above the LTA by June. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty Extremely malnutrition level Livestock mortality Insecurity Poor pastures Poor recharge of water sources Poor rainfall Poor terms of trade High food prices Mogotio Crop failure Poor forage conditions Poor livestock body conditions Livestock mortality Poor recharge of water sources Poor terms of trade High food prices Baringo North Poor rainfall Crop failure Invasion of Crop pests (African army worms) Insecurity Poor forage condition Fair livestock body condition Livestock mortality Insecurity Poor terms of trade High food prices Baringo South Poor rainfall performance Poor livestock body condition Poor regeneration of pasture Livestock mortality Crop failure Crop pests Poor recharge of water sources for irrigation Insecurity Malnutrition High food prices Baringo Central Poor rainfall performance Invasion of crop pests High food prices Poor terms of trade Eldama Ravine Fair water recharge Fair forage conditions Fair crop conditions 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 3, 360 bags (50kg) of rice and 3,360 bags (50kg) of beans for distribution to the vulnerable households in the county. World Food Program is planning to target 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is carrying out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. 5.2.2 Non-food interventions AGRICULTURE Intervention Implemente Impact in terms security frame All Sub Counties Promotion nutrition through Nutrition Sensitive Interventions- Targeting vulnerable Provision Kitchen gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers wards 20,000 FAO, WFP, CROSS, COUNTY GOVERNM DRLSP, KCSAP, Improve Nutrition security 15,000,0 Jun-Dec Support security interventions by providing inputs for bulking and planting seeds and seedlings 6,000 Government of Baringo, Cross, SHA Increase agricultur July- Bulking of high iron beans and sweet potato rich in Vitamin A to Mochon Ilchamu Koibate Government enough materials distribute farmers across the County in 2023- Continu order improve Food and nutrition security county. LIVESTOCK Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio Baringo Central Vaccination against LSD, CCPP and PPR BCGACTE Boost livestock Health 1-Jan, Baringo North Capacity strengthening to Mother to Mother groups on Poultry Production ds (HH) BCGSHA Resilienc building to HHs through Mother Mother groups Baringo north, Provision Galla bucks to groups 500HH Improve livestock Oct,202 1-on- wards Baringo Central Mogotio Baringo South Provision of pasture harvesting tools like pasture cutters, and baling boxes. 500HH BCGRPLR Improve communi livelihoo Sept, counties Capacity building of Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Partners Infirmed staff and farmers for best practices Through Mogotio Construction of livestock feed store 200HH BCGDRLS Improved pasture conservat Feb,202 WATER Tiaty Equipping,extens ionand Kachilit 2,500,00 construction of kiosk Pipeline extension of cheraik water project Cheraik Pipeline extension of Kasoe water project Kabimoi 50HH Kapngasio water project pipeline Extension Kaimoi Baringo South Upgrading of kibingor BH Kibingo CGB Partners HEALTH Vitamin A Supplementation health facilities selected 82,268 people supported by UNICEF, Routine Supplementation 75,000 people department of health 800,000 Routine Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 52,600 people department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, and WFP 240,000, Routine Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato health facilities commun ity units 107,492 department of health supported by Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women health facilities department of health supported by UNICEF Routine Deworming health facilities 33,683 department of health supported by UNICEF Routine EDUCATION Baringo north Provision of food commodities. Kipsara Saimo Bartabw Saimo kipsara 25,685 Increased continu Mogotio Parents provide water, fuel wood, pay cook and purchase utensils learners (ECD, PRY Parents NGOs Promote retention Termly TIATY School feeding from MOE 18,042 Improved retention, t and participat 2022 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County 2022 LRA Food security (Worst to best) Population Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () LRA 2022 July 2022 Tiaty 153,347 (46) 70,540 Mogotio 91,104 (40) 36,442 Baringo North 104,871 (48) 50,338 Baringo South 90,104 (50) 45,052 Baringo Central 96,951 (30) 29,085 (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Eldama Ravine 129,535 (5) 6,400 (Urban poor) (10) 12,954 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture county Intervention No. of Proposed Impleme nters Required Resources Availabl Resourc Frame Inputs provision including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals 8,000 WFP, All projects in departmen Finances (Kshs 12 million) Staff, Farmer digitization across the County for effective targeting and assistance 100,000 KCSAP, ELRP, Finances (Kshs 40 Million) Staff Enhance irrigated Agriculture reviving stalled irrigation schemes Irrigati scheme National nt, County nt and partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff Promote Farm land regeneration Environmental conservation through affruitation (provision of certified fruit (Includ schools farms revival 150,000 nt of Education, nt of Baringo Finances million) Staff, Availabi lity of fenced farms, (Perkerra, Koibatek wads and urban poor) Total population in need of food assistance 207,969 trees for nutrition conservation), and gulley healing across the young farmer clubs) National nt and partners Establishment of Agriculture business development centres in identified wards for identified groups for linkage with organized markets Mariga o and Eldam Ravine WFP and nt of Baringo Finances Million) farmers, Existenc e of the small holder public procure strategy Livestock BNorth Tiaty (LSD, CCPP) Tiaty, BNorth (LSD) Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming Disease surveillance 100,000 Cattle, 270,000 goats 50,000 Sheep FAO and other Developm partners -Jun, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Provision of Livestock feeds 2,000HH Partners -Apr, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Emergency Livestock Off- 50,000H 5,000HH Partners Baringo North -Tiaty(E Baringo -South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 across 5 sub- counties 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(E Partners -Jun, county Hay harvesting and baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500H RPLRP KCSAP -Jun, Loruk, Amaya, Nginya ng and Kolloa RenovationConst ruction of livestock Auction yards 13,000H Partners -Jun, Water Baringo South Upgrading of kibingor BH CGB Partners July 2023 Driling and Equipping of Maji BH 100HH CGB Partners July 2023 Purchase and Installation of 10,000Litres Instituitio CGB Partners Dec.2022 plastic Tanks 320No. Chemususu water distribution and metering 100,000 Partners 2022202 Tiaty Counstruction of Chemolingot Multi-Purpose 150HH Partners HEALTH Vitamin A Supplementation 90,449 (children 6 59 months) July - Dec 2022 Supplementation 20,000 July-Dec Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) No. of children 6 months estimated to be malnouris July-Dec Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) 41,533 Children birth 2 years 4.1 M July-Dec Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women 90,449 (children 6 59 months) 5.35M July-Dec counties Deworming 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M July-Dec EDUCATION Baringo Central Recommendation for feeding programmes 128 pry ECDEs wishers 384sags beans 8500x384 3,264,000 50kg of rice 35002,24 0,000 Cooking fat 40ltrs15,0 Cooking material fuel- wood, Chev ( cookma koibate Timely Provision of food. 91 pry ECDEs wishers",
        "Baringo_LRA_2016.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2016 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County August 2016 1 Thomas M. Kangethe (Ministry of Water and Irrigation) Eunice Mutuku (World Vision) Mixed farming Pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated Figure 1: Population by livelihood zone 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is divided into six sub- counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. It covers an estimated area of 11,015.3 square kilometres population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009). The county has four main livelihood zones. 2.0 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION 2.1 Current Food Security Situation Parts of the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). The amount of maize stocks held at household level are about 69 percent of the long term average (LTA). The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above the amount posted at a similar time in 2015, indicating favourable purchasing power for households selling livestock to purchase maize. Based on data from the Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) report, there was an improvement in the proportion of households in the acceptable food consumption category from 56.4 percent in May 2015 to 90.7 percent in May 2016. The report also indicated that the coping strategy index (CSI) in May 2016 was 15 compared with 27 during the same period in 2015 implying that household food security status is improving. The main drivers of food insecurity in the county include: pests and diseases in crops, livestock mortalities due to diseases and insecurity along the Kerio Valley. Others include lower-than- normal immunization levels and poor hygiene and sanitation practices. 2.2 Food Security Trends Table 1: Food security trends in Baringo County Indicator Current situation (LRA 2016) Previous season (SRA 2016) Food security phase Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of pastoral and agropastoral zones Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of pastoral and agropastoral zones Household food stocks 69 of the LTA 88 of the LTA Livestock body condition Good (in pastoral livelihood zone good to fair) for large stocks Good to fair for large stocks Good for small stocks Good for small stocks Household water consumption (litres per person per day) - Pastoral zone 1520 1215 - Agro-pastoral zone 1520 1215 - Mixed farming livelihood zone 2025 1520 - Irrigated farming livelihood 2025 1520 Terms of trade 72.5 above the LTA 49 above the LTA Coping strategy index 15 (May 2016) 27 (May 2015) Food consumption score 1.3 poor, 8.0 borderline, 90.7 Acceptable 13.6 poor, 30.0 borderline, 56.4 Acceptable Children at risk of malnutrition 10.2 12.2 Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.3 Rainfall Performance There was a late onset in the first dekad of April compared to the second dekad of March normally. Most of the county received above-normal rains with the central and eastern parts of the county receiving 90125 percent of normal while the southern and northern parts received between 125 200 percent of normal rains. The eastern parts of Nginyang and Tangulbei in East Pokot received the least amounts with Eldama Ravine and Central Kolowa receiving the highest. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was poor. Cessation was early in the second dekad of May compared to the first dekad of June normally although off-season showers were on-going in the county. 3.0 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS 3.1 Crop Production The long rains season is the most important season accounting for about 90 percent of total rain received in the county. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans, millet and cowpeas. Crop production contributes seven percent of cash income in the agropastoral livelihood zone, 35 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zone and 64 percent in the irrigated farming livelihood zones. Maize contributes 63 percent of food in the agropastoral and 21 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 2: Rain-fed crop production planted during rains season (Ha) Long term average area planted during the long rains season rains season production (90 kg bags) Long term average production during rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 34,318 38,140 1,037,871 800,650 Beans 20,320 19,626 305,513 269,148 Finger Millet 3,312 3,307 36,615 35,456 The area under maize production reduced by 10 percent of the LTA which was attributed to lack of input subsidy to the farmers as had happened in the previous season with Baringo North and South subcounties being the most affected. However, the projected production is 30 percent above the LTA which was attributed to timely provision of fertilizers in Eldama Ravine as well as favourable rains which boosted overall production. The area under beans was normal and the consequent production 16 percent above the LTA due to favourable rains (Table 2). Table 3: Irrigated crop production planted during the 2016 long rains season Short term average (3 years) area planted during long rains season (ha) rains season production bags) projected actual Short term average (3 years) production during 2016 long rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,971 3,417 58,752 101,540 Beans Tomatoes In the irrigated farming, area under maize production reduced by 42 percent as most farmers opted to skip the season in a bid to control Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease that was witnessed in the previous season. The consequent production declined by the same percentage due to reduced acreage planted. Area under beans reduced by 49 percent of the LTA as farmers preferred a particular variety of bean seed for planting which was not available. Correspondingly, production declined by 57 percent of the LTA. The area under tomatoes also declined by 37 percent due to pests and diseases. Their production was affected by Tuta absoluta leading to a decline in production of 36 percent of the LTA (Table 3). Table 4: Maize stocks in Baringo County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90 kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 106,883 154,622 Traders 44,887 44,667 Millers 10,837 3,782 22,715 18,450 Total 185,322 221,521 Maize stocks held at household level are 69 percent of the LTA as farmers sold their stocks to purchase farm inputs. The stocks held were carryover stocks from the 2015 short rains. Traders held normal stocks although they were buying directly from farmers outside the county and then selling to millers. NCPB held higherthannormal stocks by 23 percent because millers were not purchasing maize from the Board because it had discoloured. Millers were therefore purchasing maize from traders not NCPB which therefore held higherthannormal stocks (Table 4). 3.2 Livestock Production The major livestock species kept in the county are: cattle, goats, sheep, camels and honeybees. Poultry is gaining prominence across all livelihood zones. Table 5: Contribution of livestock production to cash and food in Baringo County Livelihood zone Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and Browse Pasture was good across all livelihood zones which is normal and likely to last approximately three months in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral livelihood zone where it is likely to last two months. Browse was also good across all livelihood zones and likely to last between 3 4 months (Table 6). Table 6: Pasture and browse condition Livestock Productivity Table 7: Livestock body condition Livelihood Pasture condition Browse condition Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Mixed Farming 3 4 months 34 months Irrigated 2 3 months 34 months Agro pastoral 3 4 months 34 months Pastoral Fair-Good Fair-Good 2 months 34 months Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Mixed Farming Agro pastoral Irrigated cropping Pastoral Fair to Fair to Table 8: Milk production, consumption and prices Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Pastoral Agro - pastoral Irrigated Mixed farming Current TLU per HH Normal TLU per HH Variation by wealth group Low income HH Medium income HH Migration Currently there is no out or in-migration but local movements were noticed in some sub-counties (East Pokot and Marigat) due to pastoralists moving back to the wet season grazing areas which is normal. Access to forage is hampered by insecurity cases along Kerio Valley. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Foot and Mouth Disease was reported in Tiaty subcounty and Pestes des Petites Ruminantes (PPR) in Mogotio, Koibatek, Baringo Central and Barwessa, Other diseases that were reported include Heart Water in Baringo North and Contagious Caprine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CCPP) which is endemic in all sub-counties. Heart Water disease claimed 65 goats at Yatya in the pastoral livelihood zone while 49 goats died due to CCPP in Yatya and Kollowa in the same zone. Vaccinations against Black quarter (BQ), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Sheep and Goat Pox and rabies were carried out across all livelihood zones. Water for livestock Table 10: Water for livestock Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres)per Household Price (Ksh)Litre Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres Irrigated 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres Agro pastoral 1.5-3 litres 1-3 litres 1 litres 1 litres Pastoral 1.5 litres 1-2 litres 2 litres 2 litres Livelihood Sources Return trekking distances Expected duration to last Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current (Month Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, water pan boreholes, dam Streams, Rivers, springs, water pan, boreholes, dam 11.5Km 1.5Km Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 11.5Km 1.5Km Daily Daily 3.3 Water and Sanitation The main sources of water in the county are rivers, boreholes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, water pans, dams and lakes (Table 11). Recharge to the open water sources was approximately 90 percent of their capacity, which improved water availability and access. Surface water facilities held approximately 80 90 percent of their capacities with most of them having water which is above normal at this time of the year. Table 11: Water for domestic use Areas which had long distances included; Laiwat and Nginyang in East Pokot where the distances covered were 3.5 5 kilometres which is normal at this time of the year. Water was free at open water sources, Ksh 2 5 at the boreholes and Ksh 10 20 from vendors. 3.4 Markets and Trade The main markets in the county are Nginyang, Kolowa, Barwessa, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Tenges and Sirwa for livestock, cereals and other food commodities. Market operations have remained normal with the exception of Kolowa which was disrupted due to insecurity. Commodities traded were maize, beans, irish potatoes, onions and tomatoes. The markets were well provisioned across the livelihood zones. The supply sources for livestock, livestock products and cereals were from farmers both from within and outside the county. 2 Normal refers to same period in absence of a shock (what usually happens around that period). Pastoral Streams, water pans, Boreholes Streams, water pans, Boreholes 48 Km 48 Km Daily Daily Pastoral holes, seasonal rivers holes, seasonal rivers 48Km 48Km Daily Daily Division livelihood Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water (Kshs.20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average HH Use (Litrespersonday) Status of Two Major Water Sources Projected duration of water availability in current water sources (months) Normal2 Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Current Operational Normal Operational Source Source Pastoral 2.5 1.5 3.0 3 5 12 15 15 20 holes holes 3 3.5 months Agro - Pastoral 1.5 1.3 2.5 2 5 12 15 15 20 holes Springs holes Springs 3 3.5 months Mixed Farming 0.5 2.0 0.5 15 20 20 25 Streams Springs Streams Springs 3 4 months Irrigated Cropping 0.5 0.5 1 5 15 20 20 25 Bholes Shallow wells Bholes Shallow wells 3 4 months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh. kg) Figure 6: Trends in maize prices Price (Ksh.) Figure 7: Trends in goat prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 8: Trends in Terms of trade Maize Prices The current maize prices were 20 percent below the LTA and seven percent below that of same period in 2015. The prices are expected to fall in August as harvesting begins in the farms leading to a low demand for maize in the markets as its supply increases (Figure 6). Goat Prices The average price of a goat was 37 percent above the LTA and 31 percent above that of July 2015. The price of goats has been increasing steadily as from February 2016 (Figure 7). The steady rise has been attributed to good livestock body condition due to availability of browse and water, farmers holding their livestock restocking as well as presence of food at household level. The prices are expected to remain stable in the next three months as browse and water will still be available. Terms of Trade The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above that posted at a similar time in 2015 (Figure 8). The variation was as a result of rising goat prices as farmers hold back their livestock as there was no need to sell them for food since it was available at household level. There has been a steady rise in terms of trade as from April occasioned improving condition translating into better goat prices. 500.00 1,000.00 Malaria Diarrhoea infection Number of Reported Cases Figure 9: Trends in U-5 morbidity patterns 50.00 100.00 150.00 Malaria Diarrhoea Number of Reported Cases Figure 10: Morbidity patterns general population 3.5 Health and Nutrition Morbidity Patterns The most prevalent diseases between January and June 2016 among children aged below five years and the general population include upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, skin infections and eye infections. There was also an outbreak of Hepatitis B in Lawan and Kaboskei in Baringo North. There was a noted decrease in morbidity for children aged below five years with regard to URTI and diarrhoea during the reporting period compared to the same period in 2015 (Figure 9). The decrease was attributed to improved awareness on health care-seeking behaviour to care givers. Malaria, skin and eye infections slightly increased because of poor health environment and lower thanoptimal immunization levels (Table 12). A decrease in the disease incidence in all the five diseases was reported in the period from January to June this year compared to the same period last year (Figure 10). The decrease is associated with seeking of early treatment, accessibility simple rapid diagnostic equipment at local facilities and increased outreaches. Epidemic prone diseases Table 12: Epidemic-prone diseases Epidemic January June 2015 January June 2016 No of cases Reported Deaths No of cases Reported Deaths Measles Cholera Dysentery Diarrhoea 15,853 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 11: children at risk of malnutrition Malaria 12,734 Typhoid Others Others Immunization Coverage Table 13: Immunization Coverage Percentage of fully immunized children in the district Source Vaccines Immunizations Percentage of children immunized against the mentioned diseases in the district Source Nutrition survey January to June 2016 66.86 OPV 1 OPV 3 Measles No survey done during this period January to June 2015 58.25 OPV 1 97 OPV 3 98 Measles 92.2 The percentage for immunization coverage increased during the period between January to June 2016 compared to previous year attributed to purchase of more fridges for preservation of vaccines and opening up of more immunization centres by Baringo County Government hence improving access to the services (Table 13). Vitamin A supplementation The coverage of vitamin A supplementation increased from 22.7 percent in January to June 2015 to 40.2 percent during the same period in 2016 for children 12 59 months. The increase in coverage could be attributable to additional supplementation in ECDE and during the malezi bora campaigns. However, coverage of vitamin A supplementation in the county was still below the national target of 80 percent. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The GAM in East Pokot subcounty was 23 percent and was classified as critical while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.5 percent (SMART survey, July 2016). The proportion at risk of malnutrition was 43 percent below the LTA (Figure 11). The most likely causes of malnutrition include; poor infant and young child care practices, poor dietary diversity and low micro-nutrient supplementation. Households are currently consuming 1 2 meals in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones and 2 3 meals in the mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which was normal for this time of the year. Figure12: Food consumption score trends in Baringo County FCS Trend 2013 - 2016 Borderline Acceptable Figure 13: Coping strategy index trends CSI trends Food Consumption Scores Most households (90.7 percent) had an acceptable FCS and were consuming at least a staple and vegetables on a daily basis complemented by frequent consumption of oil and pulses (FSOM, May 2016), an improvement from 56.4 percent that was recorded at a similar time last year (Figure 12). Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI for May 2016 was 15 compared to 27 during a similar time last year (Figure 13), implying that households were currently employing fewer insurance consumption based coping strategies less frequently to bridge food consumption gaps than last year (FSOM, May 2016). The most relied upon coping strategies included reliance on less preferred andor less expensive food by 77.1 percent of the households and reduction in the number of meals eaten per day at 68.6 percent. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is estimated at 50, 10, 30 and 20 percent in the mixed farming, pastoral and agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. The low coverage is associated with retrogressive cultural practices across all livelihood zones such as family members sharing a toilet being considered a taboo. Contamination of water sources is highly reported within the county mainly attributed to few poor sanitation facilities across all livelihood zones, reliance on unprotected open water sources and using one source of water to water livestock, drink, bathe and launder. Water treatment is minimal with households doing it only when they receive water treatment chemicals from the government. Hand washing during the four critical times was at two percent while open defecation was approximated at 96 percent in East Pokot (SMART survey, July 2016). Poor sanitation and hygiene practices could be a major cause of the prevalence of water-borne diseases. School Meals Programme Table 14: Coverage of School Meals Programme Name of Sub counties schools Total Girls Girls Girls Baringo north Mogotio Baringo Central Marigat East pokot Koibatek Sub Total Grand total 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions. The food security outcomes are based on the following assumptions: There is a 55-60 percent chance of La Nia conditions occurring during the October NovemberDecember season which will result in below or nearnormal rains. The available pasture is expected to last 24 months in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated farming livelihood zones and two months in the pastoral livelihood zone. Available browse is expected to last into the next rainy season for all livelihood zones. Maize prices are expected to fall as from August as harvesting of the crop starts while the price of livestock is expected to rise. The terms of trade are expected to improve with the rising livestock prices and falling maize prices. With the projected abovenormal maize harvest, there will be sufficient stocks at household level and markets will be well provisioned with the staples. 4.2 Food Security Outcomes from August to October Water availability and accessibility is expected to remain relatively stable across all livelihood zones. Pasture is expected to last up to the next rainy season due to the ongoing offseason rains in the county. Livestock production is expected to improve across all livelihood zones due to the continued availability of forage. Market provisions are expected to be high and the terms of trade are expected to improve thereby increasing households access to food. The nutritional status for the underfives is expected to continue improving. Mortality rates are expected to remain below the alert thresholds. Households are expected to employ the normal coping mechanisms although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone are likely to increase the number and severity of coping strategies than normal. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral, and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) while some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will be classified in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 4.3 Food Security Outcomes from November to January Although the OctoberNovemberDecember rains are expected to be depressed in amounts, pasture regeneration is still expected. Therefore, livestock production is expected to improve leading to improved milk availability at household level. Market operations are expected to be normal and markets well provisioned. The terms of trade are expected to be stable and above the LTA thereby ensuring that the households have access to food commodities in the markets. The nutritional status of children is expected to improve as milk and food availability improves. Mortality rates are likely to remain within seasonal norms. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones will remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will remain in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The food security situation in the county is stable and expected to remain so through to December 2016. Factors that require monitoring include livestock diseases and insecurity cases along Kerio valley which is limiting access to forage. 5.2 Summary of Recommendations Provision of water treatment chemicals Peace building initiatives Drilling of boreholes especially in East Pokot Training on water harvesting and conservation Employment of more community health workers Construction of cattle dips. Drilling of boreholes in boarding schools Increase coverage of de-worming in schools ECDs to be included in School Meals Programme Table 15: Sub-county food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security rank (1-6) Main food security threat (if any) Mogotio Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas East Pokot (Tiaty) Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas Incidences of insecurity Baringo North Incidences of livestock diseases Marigat Incidences of flooding Baringo Central Eldama Ravine (Koibatek) 6.0 ANNEXES 6.1 On-going Interventions by Sector Table 16: On-going interventions by sector county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh) Time Frame Agriculture Postharvest technologies promotion 20,000 MOALF stakeholders Provision and preservation of One year Livestock Beehives distribution 50 groups Department Agriculture Livestock Improved diversification of livelihood strategies 1.89M July 2016 August 2016 Disease control(vaccinations against BQ,LSD and sheep and goat Countywide Department Agriculture Livestock County and national govt Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition July 2016 October 2016 Pasture distribution , construction of hay and establishment of pasture plots in Baringo North households National government Increase in pasture production for improved livestock productivity 38. 3M July 2015 August 2016.supported by DRSLP project Construction of 7 markets Baringo North, Tiaty and Koibatek households Department Agriculture Livestock BCG and National government Increased access to markets for livestock and livestock products. 53.4M July 2015- December 2016. 4 markets supported by DRSLP project at a cost of KES Construction of milk cooler houses and milk processing plant Koibatek 100,000 households. Department Agriculture Livestock fisheries and dairy farmers and value chain stakeholders Reduce milk and post harvest losses and increased milk valueaddition. July 2015 December 2017.total project to cost 200M Water Mochon Chebinyiny borehole rehabilitation Chebinin 200HH Improve water availability, accessibility and quality 2 Months Ilchamus Silonga borehole rehabilitation Salabani 120HH County government Improve water availability, accessibility and quality 6Months Rehabilitation of water supplies and capacity building on water management ds of Pastoral, Agro Pastoral , 4500HH KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, BCG, NG Improve availability and accessibility July 2016 June Drilling and equipping of strategic boreholes ds of Pastoral, Agro Pastoral , 3000HH ADS, WV, WBANK , RLRP, BCG, NG Improve availability, accessibility and stability March 2016 Dec 2016 Education Baringo north Provision of food items (HGSMP,CSMP) Kipkata, Ngorora, Sibilo, Kelyo, Bartum Kaboskei County government ,parents, world vision, Action aid. Increased enrolment, Academic performance, high transition rates And retention. Ongoing Baringo Central Marigat Planting mangoes and pawpaws Peace meeting School water pan Primary schools Kaptara primary school teachers, pupils community -Increased access retention and transition rates at all levels, -improved health status 5.5 M Ongoing Health and Nutrition counties Scale up health facilities implementing full package of HINI All the Immunizi ng health facilities ECDE in Pokot county All Children 6-59 months (5900 children) A.C.F AMPATH Reduced cost of food stuff due to reduction in morbidity 2.2 M Ongoing Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 1.5 M Ongoing IYCN Interventions (EBF and timely introduction of complementary foods) County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 1.2 M Ongoing Iron folate supplementation among pregnant women County Good health and improve economic wellbeing of the community 0.8 M Ongoing 6.2 Proposed Intervention Table 17: Proposed interventions county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resourcescost Available Resources Frame Health Rapid assessment and mass screening Baringo County-all pastoral and agro pastoral zones MOHNDMA WVKKRC 300,000 Dec 2016 Conduct and scale-up of integrated outreaches Pastoral and agropastoral zones 20,000 MOH,WVK,K RC,UNICEF 200,000 Dec 2016 Link the malnourished from facilities to food distribution points. 100 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVKK RCWFP 900,000 100,000 Feb 2017 All the Implement the existing BCC Strategy to improve feeding practices among children below six months All livelihood zones 20,000 caregivers per subcounty-120 caregivers BCGWVKK 2,000,000 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Train CHVs on nutrition technical module All the livelihood zones counties BCGWVKU NICEF 1,000,000 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Livestock Pasture seed distribution, pasture harvesting and conservation support (mowers and balers) households Department of Agriculture Livestock and fisheries-BCG 2.4 M October Beehives distribution 100 groups Department of Agriculture Livestock and fisheries-BCG stakeholders December Disease control(vaccinat ions against FMD,CCPP,NC D,LSD) Countywide BCG, National government Development partners and September Livestock upgrading (bucks and rams) 40 groups Development partners and National government March Water Water treatment chemicals water purifiers de-fluoridation Vulnerable HHs across all livelihood zones 1450HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, 2.5 M Local capacity ( Community and County Organization al Structures and technical staff) 3months Rehabilitation of broken down water and irrigation facilities and capacity building on water and irrigation management ORO SDA SirataBH, KirimBH, Kapkun, 800HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP Existing infrastructure and technical staff 1 3 months Agriculture Pokot Expansion of irrigation County Govt, NIB,KVDA 3years Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers -MOALF 24 million Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Education Expand SMP HGSMP CBMP and relief food and provision of food storage facilities All locations 150 schools Ministry of education 5 0 M Human resource Purchase of: bee hives, goats and support value chain of the products All schools 155 schools (18852 pupils) -Teachers -Parents -Education office 310 M grazing field bushes for hives 2016-2018 6.2 Food Intervention Required Table 18: Proposed population in need of assistance County Population in the subcounty Population in ( percent range min max) Proposed mode of intervention Remarks Mogotio 48,129 Mugurin, Kamar,Molos, Kisanana, Kapyemit, Olkokwe, Majimoto East Pokot 133,189 Akwicahtis, Katungura, Riongo, Nginyang, Amaya, Komolion, Kapau Baringo North 93,789 Sibilo,Yatya ,Chemoe,Kalabata,Kampi samaki Baringo South 84,256 Bekibon, Mbechot, Chepkoimet, Poi, Kokwa island Baringo 78,095 Salawa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, Central Koibatek 118,103 Table 19: Non-food interventions (by sector) county Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Require Resource scost Available Resources Frame Agriculture Pokot Expansion of irrigation County Govt, NIB,KVDA 3years Increase in provision of farm inputs to farmers(seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers -MOALF million -Technical personnel to train farmers 1 year Jan. Nov. Livestock Pasture seed distribution, Pasture harvesting and conservation support (mowers and balers) 520 households Department Agriculture Livestock 2.4 M October Beehives distribution 100 groups Department Agriculture Livestock BCG and stakeholder December Disease control(vaccinatio ns against FMD,CCPP, NCD,LSD) Countywide National government nt partners Septembers Livestock upgrading (bucks and rams) 40 groups nt partners National government March Water Water treatment chemicals water purifiers de- fluoridation kits Vulnerable HHs across all livelihood zones 1450HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, RLRP, 2.5 M Local capacity ( Community and County Organizational Structures and technical staff) 3Months Rehabilitation of broken down water and irrigation facilities and capacitybuilding on water and irrigation management (WASH) ORO SDA BH, SirataBH, KirimBH, Kapkun, 800HH ACTED, KRC, ADS, WV, GDC, Existing infrastructure and technical staff 1 3 Months Health and nutrition Rapid assessment and mass screening Baringo County-all pastoral and agro pastoral MOHNDM AWVKKR 300,000 Dec 2016 Conduct and scale-up of integrated outreaches Pastoral and agro pastoral 20,000 MOH,WVK, KRC,UNIC 200,000 Dec 2016 Link the malnourished from facilities to food distribution points. 100 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVK KRCWFP 900,000 100,000 Feb 2017 Implement the existing BCC Strategy to improve feeding practices among children below six months All livelihood zones 20,000 caregivers per subcounty-120 caregivers 2,000,00 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Train CHVs on nutrition technical module All the livelihood zones All sub counties UNICEF 1,000,00 100,000 October -. Dec 2016 Education Expand SMP HGSMP CBMP and relief food and provision of food storage facilities All locations 150 schools Ministry of education 5 0 M Human resource Purchase of bee hives, goats and support value chain of the products All schools schools(18852 pupils) -Teachers -Parents -Education office 310 M Grazing field Bushes for hives 2016-2018",
        "Baringo_LRA_2021.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2021 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2021 The 2021 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the long rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2021. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The main drivers of food insecurity are poor rainfall performance, insecurity, COVID-19 pandemic, crop failure, crop pests and livestock diseases. Rainfall performance was poor, characterized by late onset and poor spatial and temporal distribution however, off season showers were received during the month of July. About 50 percent of the crop failed in the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving Fall Army worms were reported and therefore projected maize yield is estimated to be about 45 percent of the long-term average (LTA). The impacts of the COVID -19 pandemic are still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the long-term average (LTA) while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the Irrigated Agriculture Livelihood Zone, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains received in July. Markets were operating normally except in the pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The Pastoral livelihood zone had 39 and three percent of the households with borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. The SMART survey findings of July 2021 show that the Pastoral livelihood zone has a global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalence of 24.4 percent (Critical) and 3.9 percent respectively while stunting prevalence is very high at 40.7 percent. The Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones were applying unusual coping strategies in accessing food. Latrine coverage in the Pastoral livelihood zone is very low compared to the county average while proportion of households accessing water from protected sources was less than 30 percent. Decline in school enrolment has been attributed to prolonged school holidays occasioned by COVID- 19 pandemic, teenage pregnancy, early marriage among other causes. The Pastoral Livelihood Zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... i INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 County background .................................................................................................................... 1 Objectives of the assessment ...................................................................................................... 1 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................................. 3 Rainfall performance .................................................................................................................. 3 InsecurityConflict ...................................................................................................................... 3 COVID-19 pandemic .................................................................................................................. 3 Other shocks and hazards .......................................................................................................... 4 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ........................................ 4 Availability ................................................................................................................................... 4 Crop production .................................................................................................................. 4 Cereal stocks ........................................................................................................................ 6 Livestock production .......................................................................................................... 7 Livestock Migration .......................................................................................................................... 10 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 15 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .......................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ..................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ................................................................ 24 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions ............................ 24 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response .......... 24 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene............................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 27 3.5.4 School feeding ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.5.3 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 31 5.1.3 Sub county ranking .................................................................................................................. 32 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................................ 38 INTRODUCTION County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the ssouth, Uasin Gishu to the south west, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2021 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2021 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2021 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2021 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 12th to 16th July 2021. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) protocols. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April- May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the third dekad of April compared to the normal of second dekad of March. The county received an average of 294mm of rainfall compared to a normal of 299mm. Most parts in the northern part of the county comprising of Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains while the Southern part comprising of Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2). The spatial distribution of the rains was poor with the bulk of the rains being received in high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone. The temporal distribution was very poor with about 40-50 percent of the rains being received in the first dekad of May. The cessation of the season was normal in the third dekad of May. However, the county has experienced significant off-season rains in the month of July. InsecurityConflict Insecurity is posing challenges in the Pastoral areas of the County mostly in Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties whereby incidents of banditry were reported. The government mounted major security operations in the area in a bid to bring the situation under control. The most affected wards were Mukutani in Baringo South sub county and parts of Mochongoi ward specifically in Tuyotich, Kapkechir, Kasiela, Ngelecha, Sinoni and Chebinyini areas. In Tiaty sub county, the most affected wards were Ribko and Silale. Households in the pastoral areas that were affected by insecurity did experience stress in accessing food and other non-food commodities due to poor market operations resulting in poor livestock prices hence low-income opportunities. Normalcy is slowly returning in the affected areas with the government reopening livestock markets in July. COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 restriction measures are still affecting market operations. The night curfews are hampering movement of goods and services while uptake of health services is still low compared to the previous seasons due to fear of contracting the disease at the health facility. Figure 2: Rainfall performance Other shocks and hazards Crop failure The county did experience crop failure due to poor rainfall distribution, affecting about 50 percent of the total crops planted with the most affected areas being Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo Central sub counties, resulting in a projected yield for maize being less than 50 percent of the LTA Fall Army worms (FAW) Incidents of crop pests involving fall army worms were observed on maize crop reported with 21 percent of the area planted being affected in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Availability Crop production Long rains season are critical for crop production in the County, contributing about 80 percent of food requirement in the county. The rains are very important for recharging of water levels for irrigation and also farmers are contracted by seed companies. Baringo County has different ecological zones which are suitable for production of various crops. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish ppotatoes, ccowpeas and ssorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Income Agropastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2021 Long rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2021 Long rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 31,083 41,133 466,245 1,028,325 Sorghum 1,676 1,800 12,570 18,000 Beans 15,346 22,505 153,460 450,100 The area planted during the 2021 long rains with maize was 78 percent of the targeted area (Table 2) and this is due to below average rains, the most affected sub- counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South and Tiaty. The crops are exhibiting different crop conditions with areas along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine having good crop but the rest of the crop is in poor conditions in other areas of the county. There has been reported infestation by field pests, 21 percent of the area planted was affected by fall army worm, reported in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties, this was because of the dry conditions. The projected production for maize is expected to be 45 percent of the LTA. The average crop failure in sub-counties are; -10 percent in Eldama Ravine, 70 percent in Mogotio,55 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 60 percent in Baringo South- and 50 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is 50 percent. The area under sorghum decreased by seven percent as farmers heeded extension advisories on adverse climate. Irrigated crop production Table 3:Irrigated crop production planted during the 2021 rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Long rains season 2021 Long rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during Long rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons Seed Maize 2,600 1,524 78,052 57,150 The area under maize was above the LTA by 16 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 50 percent crop failure is likely to be observed. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth take care of the crops. But in marketing women undertake the business activities. About 20-40 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water flows from the rivers. Cereal stocks Table 4:Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Green grams Current Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 302,458 290,864 Traders 45,893 34,928 2,087 1,056 Millers 12,362 8,382 AidNCPB Totals 360,713 334,174 2,087 1,056 The stock held by households is within the LTA (Table 4) and this is due to the carry over stocks from last years harvest which was very good. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 60 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs for the delayed long rains, in a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. The traders also had their stock 31 percent above the LTA due to replenishment of their stocks in speculation of price increase following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 50 percent of households depend on the markets for their food supply, most of them from Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones while few are from Mixed farming livelihood zone. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively low. The local millers stocks are higher than the LTA by 47 percent. This is because most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers) and also the anticipated looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest, the available stocks are expected to last for two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone against a normal of four months, while in Agro pastoral livelihood zone, the stocks may last for one to three months. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put in effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pasture and browse condition The present forage condition and expected duration to last is driven by the effects of the long and off-season rains. Cumulatively, there was a poor performance of both the short rains and the long rains seasons leading to decline in forage quantity and quality. The pastures are expected to last for three months in Mixed and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones which is normal and 2.5 months in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones against a normal of three months (Table Locust invasions affected pasture production in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South and Baringo Central. The hotspots include; Kolloa, Tirioko, Ribkwo, in Tiaty; Emining and Kisanana in Mogotio; Tenges, in Baringo Central; Mochongoi and Mukutani in Baringo South and Kabartonjo, Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman and Barwessa in Baringo North. About 30,000 hectares of pasture and browse (less than five percent of forage land) were affected by desert locusts. The desert locust impacts included; destruction of pastures, loss of livestock and decrease in honey production (Through chemical sprays for locust control which affected bee hives). Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions caused by banditry attacks around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Table 6:Pasture and browse conditions Livelihood Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming to Fair No limit to fair Irrigated cropping to Fair No limit to fair pastoral No limit Fair to Insecurity tensions Baled hay status Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions South 10,500 6,500 2 are held by KVDA 88 Held by farmers Central 20,000 6,000 30 by farmers and 70 by Association. ERavine 550,000 250,000 150-200 70 by farmers 20 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds North 280,000 142,000 100 by farmers from community stores and traders Mogotio 550,000 390,000 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder production but there are institution doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST (Table 7). The pasture species being grown is mainly Cenchrus ciliaris. Water for livestock Sources of water for livestock were normal although they had different recharge levels (Table 8). Water pans recharge levels were at 30-50 percent and the situation was below normal. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of long rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. -The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity. Table 8:Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Bore-holes, water pans. Water-pans, Bore-holes rivers The trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year (Table 9). The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. The adult males and male youth usually water the animals. There is no known effect of Covid 19 on livestock water. However, there is the hazard of the COVID - 19 pandemic occurrence and spike as the lack of health restriction protocols are not followed in watering areas where they converge. Table 9:Return trekking distances, expected duration and watering frequency Livelihood Return trekking distances (Kms) Expected duration to last (Months) Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-2.5 Irrigated cropping 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-2.5 Agro-pastoral Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Despite the underperformance of long and short rains, the cumulative effects of 2019 short rains and 2020 long rains have sustained livestock body condition which is currently fair to good for the big stock and good for the small stock. COVID 19 has not been reported as having affected livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Birth rate The general birth rates slightly decreased across all livelihood zones, from three to 2.5 percent. The birth rates slightly declined, being attributed to below average pastures across all livelihood zones during the conception and gestation periods. The declined rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 10: Tropical livestock unit The present TLU possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment, are attributed by continued good rainfall performance during the 2019 short rains and the 2020 long rains seasons. The average translated to four LTUs in poor households as compared to seven in medium households (Figure 10). The present TLUs are compared to 3.8 in poor and 6.9 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Milk production, consumption and prices Milk production decreased, leading to increase in milk prices (Table 11). The decrease is attributed by low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. The decrease of milk production compares with last season and LTA. There was decrease in household milk consumption, and increase in milk prices, being attributed to decrease in milk production. Household milk consumption continued being high due to prolonged closure of schools. The closure has been due to restriction brought about by COVID-19 pandemic. Table 11: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk production per household (Litres) Milk consumption per household (Litres) Prices (KES) Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Agro-pastoral 75-90 Livestock Migration There was minimal internal migration due to available water and insecurity tensions, and cases of floods and swelling of Lake Baringo and Lake Bogoria. There was outward migration to Laikipia, from Churo Amaya and Korossi wards. Livestock migration will likely be minimal as the off- season rains received in the county will impact positively on pasture and water availability. Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were few disease cases reported as captured in Table 12 which did not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), CCPP and PPR was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 12:Livestock diseases Sub-county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken (Vaccinations) Central Endemic Goats livestock deaths reported Vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Tiaty Sub-county wise Goats Ring vaccination Sub-countywide Sheep and goats Ring vaccination Kolloa reported but not significant Cattle camels No vaccination Loyamorok, Silale, Tirioko Cattle No vaccination Mogotio Subcounty-wise SheepGoats No vaccination Subcounty-wise Goats No vaccination Anthrax Kiptoim Cattle No vaccination Rosogaa, Lombala, Kapcheluguny, Cattle No vaccination Eldama Ravine Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination Rabies Ravine, Perkerra, Lembus Kwen cattle 9 cases No vaccination ,Ravine cattle 1 case No vaccination Baringo south Nyimbei Goats 9,640 Marigat, Loboi, Salabani Cattle No vaccination Baringo north Sub-countywide (Endemic) Goats No deaths Ring vaccination No reports Shoats No deaths None vaccinated Poi, Rondinin Cattle 10 deaths Vaccination not yet planned. Rabies All wards No deaths 170 vaccinated Impact on availability The County has adequate maize stocks that should be able to sustain households for at least two months from now while pulses availability is not adequate in meeting the needs of the households for now. The projected yield for both maize and pulses is below LTA thus the county will have to depend on supplies from outside the county to meet the demand. Milk production is below LTA and therefore it is affecting household milk consumption while the deficit has to be taken care of through purchasing in the local markets. TLU are below normal but are recovering progressively while livestock body condition is fair to good. 3.2 Access Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and lastly, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Other than in Pastoral areas where there were depressed market operations due to insecurity challenges, the rest of the county experienced near normal market operations. COVID -19 pandemic has also affected market operations especially for livestock whereby livestock movement is normally preferred at night but due to curfew this is no longer possible. The main livestock market of Nginyang in Tiaty sub county remained non- operational from early this year until July when it was reopened following an improvement in the security situation. Apart from the pastoral markets and more so in Tiaty sub county, the rest of the markets in the county were well stocked with commodities while the numbers of market players were normal. In the Pastoral areas, livestock prices were depressed and there were fewer market players compared to normal due to movement restrictions resulting from the ongoing security operations. In the Mixed and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones, there were less cereals in the market with even fewer buyers and this was due to low cereal demand as households are still keeping carry-over stocks from the previous long rains season. Market prices Maize prices The average maize prices were relatively stable compared previous month at Ksh 46kg (Figure 3). prices below the long-term average at this time of the year by 4 percent. The stability in maize prices can attributed availability of maize stocks household level in the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.47 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat by July was stable at Ksh.2,675, compared previous month at Ksh. 2,646 (Figure 4). The price was above the short-term average (STA) by four percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 3,833 lowest pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The stability in price was as a result of stable livestock body condition Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nov Dec Maize prices (KSH) Figure 3:Maize prices Goat Prices (Ksh.) Figure 4:Goat prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 59 by July, an increase percent in comparison previous month whereby sale of one goat was able to fetch 57 kgs maize (Figure This has been attributed relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 88 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 52. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 13 below. Table 13: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming LZ Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production 70.00 80.00 Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Figure 5:Terms of trade 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use include; water pans, rivers, dams, lakes, streamssprings, shallow wells and boreholes (Figure 6)). Most of these sources are concentrated in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones where it receives more rainfall than in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Water is more accessible in mixed farming irrigated farming livelihood zones than in pastoral livelihood zone where its poorly served by rivers. Over 70 percent of the boreholes in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are operational while the rest are not due to electro-mechanical breakdowns (Table 14). These boreholes include; Akorayan, Ngaratuko, chepkalacha among others. Water quality challenges were experienced in some boreholes in Kinyach area in Bartabwa ward, Taimon and Sibilo sub-locations in Saimo-Soi ward and areas of Baringo south which rendered the boreholes non -operational as they contained high fluoride levels. Table 14:Water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operational No. of Current Operational Sources Projected Duration (Operational Sources) Normal Duration Water Last in Months Current Water Level in of Full Capacity after Recharged by the Rains Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 30 Water pan 2 months months 30-50 Rivers 2 months months 30-50 Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 40 Water Sources For Baringo County - July 2021 Boreholes Rivers Pans Dams Figure 6:Water sources The households using protected water sources are at 60 percent. Water in open sources is free while in protected sources the cost is stable at ksh.3 -5 but the final cost will depend on transport cost of the water to the households. The cost of a 20-litre jerry can cost ksh.20-50 depending on the destination of water and that 20 percent of households rely entirely on water venders for domestic use. These are areas of Kisanana and Emining wards, lower part of Saimo-Soi ward at Akorayan and Loruk sub-locations. The reasons for relying on vendors are long travelling distances to water sources, limited available protected water sources, unavailable water sources and poor quality of water in some water sources. COVID-19 regulations of frequent washing of hands is not observed due to high cost of water in these households. The most concentrated water points were found in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones where water sources are limited (Table 15). These sources get congested when there is breakdown of the nearby water points and also when the other water sources have been depleted. The congestion at water sources can increase the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic amongst the community members. By ensuring optimum operation of water facilities will reduce congestion at water sources hence spread of COVID-19 will be reduced amongst community members. Water 2 months months 30-40 springs 2months months 30-40 Mixed Farming Boreholes 6 months Over 6 months Over 50 streams 2-3 months Over 6 months 60-70 springs 2-4 months Over 6 months 60-70 Irrigated Rivers 2 months Over 6 months 30-50 Shallow wells 1-2 months months 30-50 swamps 1-2 months Over 6 months 30-50 Table 15: Most concentrated water points Ward Livelihood Actual Name of the Water Point Normal No. of households Served Current No. of households being Served Reason(s) for Variation Ngoswe borehole Mechanical breakdown of Ngaratuko and Namba boreholes Chepkewel borehole It is the only available water source with good quality water. There are electro-mechanical breakdowns of Kipchemoi borehole Kapkun Breakdown of Mangar intake Endao borehole It has high yield with good quality water. Other nearby sources have dried up Lelen borehole Is the only available source which is operational in the area Mixed farming Mochongoi borehole -Mechanical breakdown of Manwari borehole Water Accessibility and Utilization According to Table 16, the average distances to domestic water sources were above normal for all livelihood zones but is projected to reduce significantly due to the on- going off season rains while cost of water remained normal. There was no waiting time for all open water sources in all livelihood zones whereas in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones waiting time increased due to the long queues in the concentrated water points. Water consumption per person per day reduced in all livelihood zones and this was attributed by the limited water sources but is projected to increase slightly with the on-going rains. Table 16:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption Ward livelihood Return Distances to Water for Domestic use Cost of water at source (ksh.per 20litrs) Waiting Time at Source(minutes) Average Water consumption per person per day (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 10-15 15-20 10-15 pastoral 15-20 10-15 Mixed Farming 20-25 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 10-15 20-25 15-20 3.2.5 Food consumption Food Consumption Score According to sentinel site data from the NDMA early warning system (EWS) for the months of July, the Pastoral livelihood zone had a significant proportion of households with a borderline and poor food consumption score and was consistent for the last four months (Figure 7). This was contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households among other factors. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, all households have acceptable food consumption score because of availability of adequate cereal stocks carried over from the long rains season of 2020. Income emanating from sale of seed maize in Irrigated cropping zone also contributed in maintaining acceptable food consumption score. Borderline Acceptable Figure 7: Food consumption score 3.2.6 Coping strategy Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones employed more coping strategies at 19 and 15 respectively, and this was partly due to low purchasing power caused by less normal market operations caused by conflict and COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 8). In the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, households applied fewer coping strategies. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity for children under five The three most common diseases are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) diarrhoea and malaria, which indicates a decline in trend in 2021compared to 2020 among children under the age of five (Figure 9). The decrease in malaria could be attributed to mass net distribution while decrease in diarrheal diseases could be attributed to promotion of hand washing in COVID-19 intervention measures Diarrhoea Figure 9:Morbidity for children under five years of age Irrigated Figure 8: Coping strategy index Morbidity for General Population As indicated in Figure 10, general population showed a slight increase in URTI and mmalaria cases in 2021 compared to the previous year. This could be attributed to poor adherence to COVID-19 measures and adults not making use of the recent distributed mosquito nets respectively. 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A coverage for the county between January and June 2021 compared to the same period 2020 indicate an increase in Vitamin A supplementation (Figure 11). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-11 and 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities and Measles campaign that were undertaken recently. Diarrhea Figure 10:Morbidity for general population 90.10 69.65 80.00 100.00 120.00 6-11 Months 12-59 Momth Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation Immunization The average county immunization coverage between January and June 2021 increased to percent, increase percent up from percent compared to same period (Figure 12). The percent coverage remained above the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunised children could be attributed to the just concluded Measles Reubella campaign as well as poor age estimates because child health cards were not being used, a factor that could have led to capturing of over age children. 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding and Supplementary Feeding New admissions Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding OTP New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions increased from January reaching its highest in March and dropped to its lowest in the month of May and started increasing and maintained an upward trend (Figure 12). This is attributed to availability of therapeutic feeds Figure 12: Immunization coverage Jan June 2018 Jan June 2019 Figure 13:Therapeutic feeding CHANIS Data (0-59 months underweight) Figure 13 indicates percentage of underweight by CHANIS whereby there was lower trend in 2021 compared to 2020 same period though it follows almost the same trend (Figure 13). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities such as CSB in the year 2021. Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been on an increasing trend since February with a slight decrease in June 2021. The steady increase in the rate from January could be attributed to continuous depletion of food stocks and low milk availability during dry spell. Figure 14:Percentage of underweight children under 5 years MUAC (125mm) Normal LTA Figure 15. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition measured by Family MUAC SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 conducted in Tiaty sub county (Pastoral livelihood zone), the global acute malnutrition (GAM) was critical at 24.4 percent while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.9 percent. Stunting and underweight prevalence was very at 40.7 and 44.1 percent respectively while GAM by MUAC was critical at 9.8 percent. 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context Currently most clients are utilizing public health facilities and the fear of COVID-19 has reduced among the community members. The number of supported outreach services have reduced due to security operation in Tiaty and lack of partner support in the six sub counties. The community health volunteers are applying the use of family MUAC tapes in assessing nutritional status of children under five years of age. At the moment, the Corn Soy Blend CSB is out of stock in all the sub counties. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions The county has ensured that there are hand washing facilities in most of the public places including markets, supermarkets and kkiosks while the use of liky tins have been promoted by health workers and reinforced by public health officers. Most health workers have been supplied with essential supplies such as masks, sanitizers, hand washing facilities among others. The community engagement and messaging are carried out at the health facilities and use of local FM radio stations. From observations during the transect drive on adherence it was found that there is laxity in adherence to the COVID -19 protocols at the moment due to emerging beliefs and other issues that negatively affect control and prevention measures. Currently there are no social safety net programs. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response The County has a functional nutrition technical forum which meets on quarterly basis, however the sub county nutrition technical forums are not functional apart from the one in Tiaty where the meeting is held once in a while. During the nutrition technical forum, the impact of COVID- 19 and nutrition programming are usually discussed. Nutrition team is involved in carrying out follow up and counselling of patient with lifestyle diseases and sensitizing communities through mother to mother support groups on COVID-19. 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene Interviews with the focused group discussions during the transect drive, majority of the households were not accessing their water from the protected sources (Table 17). Table 17: Protected water sources Water source Proportion households in Protectedunprotected Bore holes protected Rain water Protected (Water tanks) Shallow wells unprotected Rivers unprotected Water vendors protected Water springs unprotected Water storage and treatment About 95 percent of households store water in Jerri cans, while only 60 percent cover their water ccontainers with lids. Some of the chemicals used in treating water include chlorine, water guard, aqua tabs and PUR. Interviews with the communities during the transect drive indicates that about 30 percent of the households were boiling their water, 20 percent were doing filtration while 50 percent were not treating their water by any means. Majority of the households carry water on their backs (human carriage) for those getting from rivers, shallow wells and water springs, while majority of those getting from water vendors use motor cycles and water tracks to transport water. There are high cases of diarrheal diseases amongst children below five years of age and this was reported in all sites visited during the transect drive. According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 done in Tiaty sub county, about 54 percent of the respondents were aware of the hand washing practices. For those who did hand washing, the majority did it before eating at 97.1 percent (Figure 15). Generally, hand washing practices have gone up compared to the last survey of 2019 and this was due to the impact of COVID 19 pandemic. The possible sources of contamination include river Chemususu Lokoiywa River in Baringo Central- (Sewage waste from nearby school). This has led to increase in diarrheal diseases and there has not been any intervention done but the case has been reported to county public health officials. In Loboi and Bekibon areas, there were high cases of diarrheal diseases being reported and this was attributed to water contamination by human waste. Majority of the households have knowledge on critical points where they practice hand washing after visiting toilet, before breastfeeding, before cooking, before eating.and after changing baby diapers. 40.4 84.6 19.8 41.7 97.1 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 After toilet Before cooking Before eating After taking children to the toilet Hand washing at all 4 critical times Figure 16: Hand washing practices Latrine coverage The average county latrine coverage about 42 percent with Eldama Ravine sub county having highest latrine coverage at 78 percent while areas in Pastoral livelihood zone such as Tiaty sub county having lowest latrine coverage of less than five percent and thus practice open defecation (Figure 17). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 18: Food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2021 Long rains assessment, July, 2021 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Good-Fair Good to Fair Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Fair to good Water consumption (litres per person per day 15-25 10-15 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 10-15 Price of maize (per kg) Distance to grazing Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13 Agro Pastoral-17 Pastoral-13 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-13 Agro Pastoral-19 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-3 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline Eldama Ravine Central South Mogotio North Tiaty Figure 17: Latrine coverage 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centres with an enrolment of 48,753 children, 729 primary schools with 136,308 pupils and 179 secondary schools with a combined enrolment of 44,662 students. There was a decline in enrolment at all levels of learning. A decline of 1.3 percent in enrolment was noted in ECDE while pprimary and secondary sections dropped by 1.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. This was attributed to by insecurity challenges in Pastoral areas, drought, lack of school fees as some parents were rendered jobless due to COVID-19 pandemic, early marriages, teen pregnancies, child labour in irrigated tomato farms and bodaboda riding. As at July 2021, grade 4 learners and class 8 are on hold till 25th, July 2021 when they will transit to the next level of grade 5 and Form 1 respectively. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools Due to effects of COVID-19, the schools are in term 3 of 2020 calendar from 10th May 2021 to 16th, July 2021 which usually was from September to November every year and this is confusing both the learners, parents and the community. Many livelihoods were affected more so in the hospitality industry, transport and other key sectors that resulted in job losses and income thus affecting payment of school fees by parents. Urban Rural migration due to economic hardships led to some decline of enrolment in urban schools compared to rural schools. No digital learning took place in all the sampled schools in Baringo while child labour cases rose along river Molo and River Perkerra where there are a lot of irrigation activities that requires labour. Rise in cases of early marriages and teen pregnancies was observed whereby up to about 20-40 percent of the sampled households reported being affected by teen pregnancies. Increased cultural practices and rites of passage such as circumcision, FGM were also observed. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains in schools There were no damages reported on any school infrastructure emanating from the long rains season. However, the poor performance of the season was associated with decline in enrolment of students mostly in the pastoral areas. 3.5.4 School feeding Baringo is listed among the 23 ASAL areas in Kenya and benefits from the national government funding for Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) through the ministry of education (MOE). The following sub counties are directly supplied with school meals; Baringo North all 153 primary schools, Marigat 108, East Tiaty 58, West Tiaty 78 and Baringo Central 34 primary school (Table 19). A total of 46,803 boys and 41,994 girls are fed in the county. Table 19:School feeding Sub Counties No. Of Schools HGSMPLRPNON Total No. of Beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Central 3,392 3,340 3,392 3,340 Mogotio 10,928 10,165 10,928 10,165 3.5.3 Inter sector links The department of Health Services is planning to give vitamin A tablets to all the children under five years and deworm them while the department of water has procured hand washing containers for 367 ECDE centers. Some schools procured thermo guns using the money from national government. Girls in all the primary schools who required dignity kits did receive them free of charge and in the sampled schools during the assessment, it was observed that there were adequate stocks to last for one year. There was a challenge when girls were at home for the long holiday periods and were therefore not able to access the pads. Schools are being encouraged to have income generating activities (IGAs). Measles and rubella vaccines were administered to all learners aged 1-5 years and funded by ministry of health (MOH) and UNICEF Baringo South 12,708 12,169 12,708 12,169 Eldama Ravine Baringo North 12,275 11,546 12,275 11,546 Tiaty 7,500 4,774 7,500 4,774 Sub Total 46,803 41,994 46,803 41,994 Total 88,797 88,797 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumption According to FEWSNET seasonal forecast review of June 2021, based on the NMME and WMO forecasts, the October-December 2021 short rains season in Kenya is most likely to be below-average. However, the Meteorological department of Kenya has forecasted above normal off-season rains in July through to August in Baringo County. The security situation in the Pastoral areas is likely to stabilize following the ongoing security operations and consequently lead to resumption of normal market operations. Peace building efforts are paying off as some of the markets have been reopened for operation. Despite the ongoing vaccination drive, a limited vaccine supply is expected to slow down vaccination rates. COVID-19 related restrictions are likely to remain in place through at least the first half of the scenario period, impacting household income and food access significantly. However, some of these restrictions are expected to be lifted in October as vaccination rates increase and boost the economy to improve household income-earning opportunities and food security. Due to projected reduced cereal yield following the poor performance of the long rains season, household maize stocks are expected to decline significantly after two months from July, rendering most households to rely on markets for cereal access and consequently pushing up maize prices due to increased demand. From the analysis of, livestock prices from the NDMA EWS system, it is anticipated that they are likely to remain depressed in the Pastoral areas for the next one month but are expected to pick up to near normal due to the impact of the off-season July rains and the gradual reopening of the livestock markets. Rejuvenation of rangeland resources is expected to pick up in the next one month following receiving of the off-season rains in July which were fairly good and consequently, livestock body condition is expected to improve to good conditions. The off-season rains are expected to affect water sources positively, therefore improving on water recharge and shortening of water trekking distances to below average levels which should lead to improved water access, availability and utilization. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Minimal cases of conflict are expected to persist with the heavy presence of security on the ground is expected to tame a majority of the incidents allowing resumption of market operations in the Pastoral livelihood zone and therefore easing access to food sources. Livestock migration will be minimal as herders are likely to return to their normal grazing sites due to pasture recovery that is likely to take place in August while livestock body condition for the large stock will improve to good conditions. Milk production is expected to improve and increase milk availability at household level. Household maize stocks will remain near normal of LTA during the first month but will tend to decline to below normal by October. Livestock prices are expected to improve marginally mostly in the Pastoral livelihood zone while cereal prices will remain stable in the first two months but are expected to increase as the household stocks gets depleted. Recharge of water sources will be near normal in August but deteriorate towards October during the dry spell and therefore causing a drop in the household water consumption. Food consumption will remain poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone but fairly good in the rest of the county. However, food consumption will improve gradually towards October in the Pastoral livelihood zone as milk production and consumption will be enhanced due to the expected improvement in forage condition caused by the off-season rains of July. Households in Agropastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are expected to continue employing more coping strategies in accessing food compared to the other livelihood zones due to the prevailing low purchasing power caused by poor market operations. The strategies include reduced number of meals per day, eating of less preferred food and limiting of meal portion size. Malnutrition cases are likely to remain above LTA especially in the Pastoral areas due to below average milk production and consumption. The county will remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity. November-December-January Due to the projected poor short rains performance, regeneration of forages will be poor and therefore leading to short lived improvement but below average pastures and browse. Recharge of water sources will also be poor leading to less water availability for both human and livestock. Cases of resource-based conflict are therefore likely to be experienced towards January in the Pastoral livelihood zone as communities competes for the scarce water and forage resources. Internal livestock migration will likely be experienced by January in search of pastures and water, a factor that is also likely to trigger more conflict in the known hot spots such as Mukutani ward. Livestock body condition will likely be fair to good for the big stocks but may deteriorate further by January, causing a decline in both milk production and milk consumption. Milk prices will likely shoot up by November and will likely be above LTA by January. The expected deterioration in body condition will cause a decline in livestock prices by January mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, leading to a reduction of purchasing power for their respective households. Household cereal stocks are expected to be below LTA and will be on a declining trend, triggering cereal price increase, a factor that will lead to worsening of terms of trade more so for the pastoral households. By November, food consumption in the Pastoral livelihood zone is likely to start worsening due to the expected reduction in milk consumption. In the Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, food consumption is expected to deteriorate from November following the depletion of carry over maize stocks from the previous long rains season as the current season is not expected to replenish the stocks due to poor rainfall performance. High cereal prices will be a limiting factor on food access thus affecting food consumption adversely across the county. Households in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are expected to employ same coping strategies in accessing food but those in Mixed farming livelihood zone are likely to apply slightly more coping strategies as a result of dwindling cereal stocks. Nutrition status will be stable but will start to deteriorate by January due to reduced food quantities and quality. The county will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The Pastoral livelihood zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and the Irrigated Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The performance of the long rains season was poor and was characterized by late onset and poor temporal and spatial distribution of the rains while cessation was normal. Off season rains were experienced across the county. Significant crop failure was observed in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving fall army worms were reported. COVID -19 pandemic is still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the pastoral livelihood zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the LTA while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the irrigated agriculture, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains. Markets were operating normally except in the Pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are URTI, diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The county had acceptable food consumption score although in the Pastoral livelihood zone, there was a significant proportion of households that did not have acceptable food consumption. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were applying more coping strategies compared to the other livelihoods in accessing food. 5.1.3 Sub county ranking Sub County Rank (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) Poor rainfall Poor pastures Poor pastures Locust Malnutrition Insecurity Market disruptions Livestock diseases Low purchasing power Mogotio Poor rainfall Poor pastures Crop failure Crop pests Livestock diseases Baringo North Poor rainfall Insecurity Locust Crop failure Livestock diseases Baringo South Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor recharge of rivers Baringo Central Poor rainfall distribution Crop failure Eldama Ravine Poor rainfall distribution Crop failure Crop paste 5.2 Ongoing interventions Intervention Specific location Number of beneficiaries n timeframe n stakeholders Femal HEALTH SECTOR Vitamin A All health facilities selected 2.2 M Routine MOH supported by UNICEF All health facilities 867,00 37,00 38,000 Routine County department of health Management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) Selected health facilities across the county 231 M 54,892 Routine County department of health supported by National Government, UNICEF intervention (EBF and timely intro of complementary foods) All health facilities communit y units 54,892 County department of health supported by Afya uzazi Iron folate n among pregnant women All health facilities Routine County department of health supported by WVK and UNICEF Deworming All health facilities 33,683 Routine County department of health supported by WVK and UNICEF Cash transfer County KRCSWFP National government Mass screening County MOH, KRCS AGRICULTURE Construction of grain store Bartolimo 1000 HH 2018-2020 Department of agriculture Provision of certified affruitation seedlings north, south and central Mogotio Eldama ravine Tiaty 5000 HH 2020-2021 Department of agriculture Purchase by household orange sweet potato vines north, south and central Mogotio Eldama ravine Tiaty 2500 HH 2021-2022 Soil and water management Barwesa bartabwa wards 3000 HH 2 years MOALF Farm ponds development 500 M 10000 HH Continuous Department of irrigation LIVESTOCK SECTOR IMMEDIATE Provision of Galla bucks and Sahiwal bulls to groups 800 HH May- June 2021 KCSAP Capacity strengthening to youth groups communities on poultry training 0.2 M May- June 2021 KCSAP Provision of pasture seeds 2,500 kgs south, central, north, Tiaty and Mogotio 200 HH July 2020- presently RPLRP Vaccination against CCPP, PPR and north, 2000 HH On going RPLRP Partners diseases surveillance central and south Provision of pasture harvesting tools e.g. pasture cutters and bailing boxes Eravine central Mogotio south 500 HH On going KSCAP MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity building of farmers and staff All sub- counties 1000 HH Throughout MOALF Partners Construction renovation of auction yard 4,000 HH May 2021 LLACC WATER SECTOR Rehabilitation of broken- boreholes Tiaty 150 HH Sept 2021 Partners Rehabilitation of boreholes Saimo Soi 280 HH Aug 2021 Partners Rehabilitation of Barkibi BH south 200 HH May 2021 Partners EDUCATION SECTOR Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tanks and school meals programs ongoing central Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tanks and school meals programs ongoing Marigat Parents Improve access to schools, handwashing tanks and water supply north Improve access to schools, hand washing tanks, supply of water and planting of crops in school farms Tiaty East Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tank and school meals programme ongoing Mogotio Parents Supply of sanitary kits, hand washing tank and school meals programme ongoing Koibatek Parents 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County security rank (Worst to best) security threatContributing factors Proportion in need of immediate food assistance () Tiaty Poor rainfall Poor pastures Locust Malnutrition Insecurity Market disruptions Livestock diseases purchasing power 15-20 Mogotio Poor rainfall Poor pastures Crop failure Crop pests Livestock disease 10-15 Baringo North Poor rainfall Insecurity Locust Crop failure Livestock disease 10-15 Baringo South Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor recharge of rivers 5.3.2 Non-food interventions countyWar Interventio Number of beneficiari Proposed implementers Require Availabl frame HEALTH SECTOR County Rapid assessment 150 facilities in the county Intensify screening and referrals County Provision of supplements UNICEF supporting through KEMSA and National government through county commissioner and KEMSA 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties Integrated outreach services 1,873,25 Ongoing County Smart survey 1.5 M January- County Provision of supplements UNICEF supporting through KEMSA UNICEF support through National government East pokot Smart survey UNICEF 1.5 M WATER SECTOR south Kibonjos 180 HH Partners 2 months Mochongoi Rehabilitatio Manwari 430 HH Partners 3 months Mochongoi Chepkoimet 260 HH Partners 2.5 M 4 months Marigat Kamonge 450 HH Partners 0.5 M 2 months Kalabata Spring protection and pipeline 500 HH Partners 3 months County wide Roof water harvesting structure for institutions 5000 HH Partners Months County wide equipping of boreholes 650 HH Partners 6 months LIVESTOCK SECTOR IMMEDIATE north Mogotio Tiaty Vaccination against LSD, CCPP and 100,000 cattle, 270,000 goats and 50,000 sheep Development partners 2.3 M August r 2021 Provision of pasture seeds Tiaty north, south and central Mogotio RPLRP SHAFSKSA ACTED 0.5 M August r 2021 MEDIUM TERM north and south Tiaty Mogotio Establishme nt of strategic livestock reserves 4 in Tiaty north south Mogotio MOALF Partners August r 2021 Baringo (all counties) harvesting and bailing 41,500 HH RPLRP KCSAP August- r 2021 machinery one per sub county Loruk, Amaya, Barwesa and Nginyang Renovation construction of livestock auction yard 12,000 HH Partners August- r 2021 EDUCATION SECTOR central Provision of school meals to learners in primary schools 12,242 6.7 M 3 years Marigat Avail water provision of water reservoirs 12,041 5 years north Water harvesting and supply of water tanks Tiaty Water harvesting and water piping to Nginyang girls Mogotio provision of water and water reservoirs 5 years Koibatek Avail water provision of water and water reservoirs 5 years AGRICULTURE SECTOR County wide Increase in provision of MOALF 1 year farm inputs to farmers (drought tolerant seeds, planting and top-dressing fertilizers) personne Trained farmers County wide Post-harvest technologies promotion 20,000 MOALF Partners l stuff 1 year"
    },
    "Baringo Short Rains": {
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2016.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2016 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the and County Steering Group, Baringo County and Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 February, 2017 1 Philip Muraguri Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Erick Ooko World Vision Kenya Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 3 3.1.1 Crops Production: .................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2 Maize Stocks .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production ............................................................................................................. 7 3.2.1 Markets operations ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2.2 Maize prices ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.3Livestock prices .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) ........................................................................................................... 11 3.2.5 Income sources..................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.6 Water availability and access ............................................................................................... 12 3.2.5 Food Consumption ............................................................................................................... 12 3.2.6 Coping Strategy ................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns ............................................................................................................... 13 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ................................................................... 13 3.3.1 Nutritional status .................................................................................................................. 13 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 14 5.1.1 Phase classification .............................................................................................................. 16 5.1.2 Summary of the findings ...................................................................................................... 16 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking .................................................................................... 17 5.1.4 Factors to monitor ................................................................................................................ 17 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions ....................................................................................... 18 5.3.1 Food interventions ............................................................................................................... 22 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions ................................................................................ 23 Executive Summary Baringo County is classified in the Stressed phase (Phase 2) of the Integrated Food Security Phase (IPC). The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase (Phase 2), while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Phase. This situation is attributed to the poor performance of the short rains season which had a late onset and low amounts. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 55 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.40 while goat prices reduced from a long term average of average of Ksh 2,636 to Ksh. 2,226. This has affected Access to food by households due to increase in maize prices and declining livestock prices, making the current terms of trade (ToT) unfavourable. Households are currently purchasing 40 Kg of maize flour from the sale of a goat compared to 66Kg during same period in the long term average. Low livestock prices have resulted to low purchasing power especially in pastoral livelihood zone since food commodities prices are high. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further as these areas are currently facing drought and resource based conflict in competition for pasture and water as a result of poor performance of the short rains, which had negative impact on household food security. The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Return trekking distances between the water sources and grazing areas increased to 16 Km compared to 5 Km normally while households were currently walking a distance of about 10 Km compared to 5 Km normally thereby limiting access to water. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been increasing from October and currently 17 percent of children are at risk. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level as a result of poor pasture and browse. The trend is expected to deteriorate further if no rains are experienced in the next two months or if there is no mitigation measures in place. Food and nutrition security of the county is largely determined by rainfall performance, as well as conflicts and insecurity situation. Crop failure in the irrigated and mixed farming zones have attributed to less food available hence reduced food intakes. Food stocks held have significantly decreased. There were market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets and displacement of population in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub County. Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease have resulted to quarantine in Koibatek sub-county. Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP) are pronounced in pastoral zones of Tiaty Sub-county. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of 11,015.3 square kilometres with a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). The county has Lakes Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. The County has six (6) sub counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo north, Baringo central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo south. The county is divided into four livelihood zones namely, mixed farming, pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and Approach The main objective of short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the short rains season of 2016, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 16th to 27th January, 2017 using multi- sectoral approach; the team used all available and relevant data in food insecurity based on the integrated food security phase classification (IPC) methodology. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Observation technique were also used during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 1: Proportion of population by livelihood Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a percent of normal 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The short rains onset was realized in the third dekad (10 days period) of October 2016 which was late, compared to normal second dekad of October. Spatial distribution was even with most areas across the county receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rainfall amounts. Temporal distribution was however poor where the significant rainfall amounts were received only in the second dekad of November. Cessation of the rains was early at the end of November, 2016. Normally rains end in the 3rd dekad of December with off season rains in January across all livelihood zones. 2.2 InsecurityConflict Conflicts especially in pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty and Baringo South sub Counties have destabilized markets and displacement of population. Over 1,000 residents have moved from Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian to Mochongoi and Marigat due to conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. Currently there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Marakwet where a police officer was killed. In addition there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Tugen in the border areas of Baringo and West pokot. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholders to reduce the current tension. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards The county is experiencing both in-migrations from Nakuru and out-migration of cattle to Laikipia, Nakuru and Samburu counties. Livestock movements from different parts of the county are prevalent in search of pasture. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in JulyAugust. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak was reported in Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Chemogoch and Kipsogon. Incidents of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) for goats and Pest des petit ruminants (PPR) have been reported. Widespread livestock mortalities are being reported. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwesa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo north, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. Poor infrastructure is hindering access to the markets in remote areas. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food available in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production and imports outside the county and livestock production. The 2016 short rains harvest were affected by below normal rainfall performance and higher than normal temperature impacting negatively on crop and livestock production exposing households to market dependency. Limited rangeland regeneration led to minimal milk production at household level. The available food is insufficient to sustain the households for the three months and therefore most of the household will largely depend on markets 3.1.1 Crops Production: The county mostly depends on the long rains for crop production. The main food crops grown are maize, beans and Irish potatoes in the mixed farming zone. There was marked reduction on area under cultivation for maize and beans at 93 percent and 85 percent below LTA respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 99 percent and 97 percent below normal respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to poor performance of short rains which affected crop establishment and poor choice of seeds. The area planted for Irish potatoes was relatively normal, since Eldama Ravine sub county where Irish potatoes are mostly planted received good amounts of rainfall at the begin of the season. However, the expected yields will be 24 percent below LTA which is attributed to poor temporal distribution of rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during 2016 Short rains season Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2016 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,205 15,400 Beans 1,276 10,773 Finger millet Irish Potatoes 1,602 1,684 12,852 16,944 Irrigated crop production: The area planted was 97 below the LTA for both maize and beans with the expected yields below LTA with 73 percent for maize and 91 per cent for beans. This is attributed to reduced water levels in the rivers in Baringo South, where most of the irrigation schemes are found, which affected their capacity to provide water for irrigation schemes. Crop loss was experienced especially along river Waseges which is used in Sandai irrigation scheme. Irrigation that depend on water harvesting structures like water pans in areas around Marigat has also been affected since most water pans have dried up due to low recharge levels experienced during short rains this and other uses. However, the areas area under tomatoes tripled since farmers preferred to plant short growing, high income horticultural crops. This resulted to over production which led to market glut and low prices of the crop Table 2: Irrigated Crops Area planted during the 2016 Short rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Short rains season 2016 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projectedactual Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2016 Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.2 Maize Stocks Stocks held at house-holds level were 66 percent of the LTA mainly because of exhaustion of the previous season reserves (Table 3). Household food stocks in the mixed and agro pastoral zones are dwindling while in the pastoral zones households did not have any stocks and households are depending on market purchases. Diminishing stocks at household level is as a result of in order to obtain school fees for their children. The stocks held by traders are 14 percent higher in comparison to LTA. However traders are now disposing their stocks to millers due to high market prices offered by millers. NCPB is currently holding 87 percent of the LTA which is attributed to high demand of maize. Table 3: Food Stocks held in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90-kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90-kg bags) House Holds 437,540 654,122 Traders 63,658 55,889 Millers 19,041 20,122 4,799 39,461 Total 525,038 769,594 3.1.3 Livestock Production Introduction The major livestock species in the county include cattle, sheep, goats, camel, donkey, poultry and bees. Poultry is gaining prominence across the livelihoods while camels are also reared in the pastoral livelihood zones majorly for milk. Livestock contribute 88 percent to income and 21 percent to food in pastoral zone (Table 4). Table 4: Contribution for cash and food from livestock production in Baringo County:- Livelihood zone Cash () Food () Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral 3.1.3.1 Pasture and browse Condition The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation is attributed to poor performance of the short rains which resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. This has led to deterioration of livestock body condition. Pasture is expected to last for one month and three month in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone but completely depleted in livelihood zone as shown in table 5. Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Livelihood Zone Pasture condition Browse condition Current Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last (Months) Curre Situation at this time of Projected Duration to last(months) Mixed farming 1 month 2.5 months Irrigated cropping 1.5 months 2.5 months Agro-pastoral Good to Fair 3 weeks 1.5 months Pastoral Depleted Good to Fair 1 month 3.1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is deteriorating as pastures and browse are further depleted. The most vulnerable are the lactating cows which farmers are likely to lose together with the calves as the situation worsens. The current body condition translates to low livestock prices which downplay the farmers purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed farming Good to Good to Good to Irrigated cropping Good to Good to Good to pastoral Fair to Fair to Pastoral 3.1.3.3 Livestock Tropical Units The tropical livestock units in low income households indicated a slight increase as compared to June 2016. However the TLUs were lower as compared to normal attributed to distress sales and mortality. The averages translated to 2.3 in poor HH as compared to 4.2 in medium HH. Table 7: Livestock Tropical Units Low Income Households Medium Income Households Current TLU Normal TLU Current TLU Normal TLU Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral 3.1.3.4 Milk Availability Milk production and consumption decreased as compared to normal in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones attributed poor livestock body condition as a result of poor pasture. The prices across all livelihood zones were above normal. Consumption stabilized in both mixed farming and irrigated cropping, but declined in both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones indicating malnutrition for children under 5 years in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones (Table 8) Table 8: Milk Availability Livelihood zone Production per HH(Lts) Consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 1-1.5 Pastoral 0.5-1 3.1.4 Water for Livestock The main permanent water sources are boreholes and Lakes; Lake Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94. The rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani. However, Kerio River has dried from Kapluk downwards. The return trekking distance for livestock has more than doubled compared to normal in agro-pastoral and pastoral zone (Table 9). This resulted to deteriorating livestock body condition and hence low livestock prices further downplaying purchasing power to households. Table 9: Livestock Water Variables Liveli Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1.5Km 3 months Twice Daily Twice Daily Irrigated croppin Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-1.5 1-2 months Twice Daily Twice Daily pastoral water pans, Boreholes Streams, water pans, Boreholes 3-4 weeks months 2 Days 2 Days Pastoral Water-pans, Bore-holes Water-pans, Bore-holes 2 weeks except in Boreholes months 2 Days 2 Days 3.1.5 Livestock Movement and Migration The county experienced intra migration, outward migration and also inward migration during the season which were are not normal as they have occurred earlier than expected. The main reason for the migration was to search for pasture and water. The migrations have caused resource based conflict, as well as introduced Foot and Mouth Disease in Koibatek Sub-county, hence imposition of quarantine in the sub-county. The main migration routes recorded were as shown in table 10 below. Table 10: Livestock migration routes Intra migration Outward migration In ward migration -Kamar, Kamar, Molos and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas -Sagasagik, Cheberen and Kimngorom to Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Subcounty forests. -Tiaty-RugusKomolion-Kiserian-Mukutani -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome -Sibilo-Arabal -Saimo soi, Bartabwa, Chemoe, Yatya, Ngorora Kerio Valley(Barwessa) Marigat Mukutani and along the shores of L. Baringo and lake Bogoria -Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei towards Laikipia and Menengai in Nakuru County - Churo-Laikipia and Samburu -Nakuru towards Maji Mazuri forests in Koibatek sub-county 3.1.6 Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases were reported during the short rains season which affected livestock production and caused mortality (Table 11). Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia(CCPP) Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Akoret, Tirioko, Goats and Sheep. 74 sheep and goats Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD) Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Koibatek Cattle Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Koloa, Kositei,Kamar, majimoto,Emining Shoats 50 shoats East Coast Fever(ECF) Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Sinende, Kabuswo Cattle 9cows Heart water Saimo soi ,Kolloa Shoats 119 shoats Mange Saimo soi Shoats 24 shoats Worms County wise All livestock Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle New Castle Disease Mukutani Chicken 3.1 7. Livestock mortalities Mortality rates for sheep and goats are normal at three percent. Cattle mortality rates have increased to four percent due to drought. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwessa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. 35 goats have died in Saimo Soi. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa,Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi which are currently under quarantine due to outbreak of foot and mouth disease and plans are underway to to carry out ring vaccination. There were also market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets in Arabal and Kolloa and displacement of population especially in pastoral livelihood zones. Price of a goat (Ksh.) Figure 4: Goat prices Price of maize (Ksh. kg) Figure 3: Maize prices Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.2 Maize prices Average maize price in the county stood at Ksh. 55 in January 2017 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 40(Figure 3). In pastoral livelihood zone, maize prices was at ksh.60 per kg while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the price was at ksh. 30 and 35 respectively. The increased prices are attributed to diminishing supply of maize in the market coupled with increased demand of maize in the market since most households are relying on the market. 3.2.3Livestock prices Livestock prices are low occasioned by oversupply of livestock in the market due to distress sales; for school fees and fear of losses to drought. The market prices are likely to continue dropping due to decline in body condition.The average goat prices in the ccounty is Ksh. 2,226 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 2,636 which is16 percent below LTA(Figure 4). 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) In January 2017, a household was able to purchase 40 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with the LTA of 66 Kgs, which is 39 percent below the LTA(Figure 5). This is attributed to drop in goat prices and increase in maize prices. ToT are projected to deteriorate further until March as goat price further drops with the maize price increasing precipitated by the current drought. 3.2.5 Income sources The main income sources in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are sale of livestock, petty trade, fishing, casual labor, sale of charcoal and firewood. Currently some of these income sources especially related to livestock production have been affected by the current drought and conflict situations, hence households engaging in coping mechanisms to access food. Figure 6: food consumption score 3.2.6 Water availability and access The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; dams, lakes, water pans, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of the commonly used water facilities in mixed farming, agro-pastoral and pastoral zones are currently overstretched as compared to the normal. About 60-90 percent of waterpans are dry due to poor recharge Siltation. Remaining water in pans have about 30-40 percent of water available; likely to last for 1-2 month in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones and between 2-3 months in the mixed and irrigated zones. Normally, water pans in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones last until April. The main rivers in the county which are mostly in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone include River Perkera, Molo, Ol Arabal, Kerio, Barwessa, River Kinyo, Amaya which have about 30 percent of their normal flows mainly due to poor recharge, over abstraction in the upstream. Normally, at this time of the year, rivers are among the main sources. Return distances to domestic water sources have increased to 6-10 Km in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The normal return distances in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are usually 2-3 km and 3-5 km respectively. Return distances in the mixed farming and irrigated Farming zones is stable at 1-2km. In the mixed farming and irrigated zone, waiting time is normal within 15 minutes. Waiting time at the source range from 30 to 40 minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones. However, some isolated areas like Kamnoskei are waiting up to up to one hour and two hours in Kirim. Normally, households are able to fetch water within 30 minutes. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral livelihood zone. Water consumption per person per day average 20-25 litres in the irrigated zone, 15-20 litres in the mixed farming and 10-15 litres in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Most households in the pastoral, agro-pastoral zones dont buy water at source and depend on pans, springs and rivers. Irrigated zone depend on water from canal. Households purchasing water from a borehole pay between Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrycan. 3.2.5 Food Consumption The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 83 and 49 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2017. 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2017 is 20, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 15. Thus, households employed more severe coping mechanisms in January unlike in the previous month. The CSI for pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2017 is 23.8 and 15.6 respectively. CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 4.2. Most households are taking few numbers of meals eaten per day and reduced portion size of meals. Cases Reported Month URTI 2016 URTI 2015 Malaria 2016 Malaria 2015 DIARRHOEA 2016 DIARRHOEA 2015 Figure 7: Morbidity cases 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns prevalent diseases between August and December 2016 among under-fives and the general population are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Malaria, diarrhoea, diseases of the skin, and pneumonia. All diseases showed a declining trend from August to December 2016. Distance to nearest health facilities is high with the average distance being 35Km in East Pokot and 6 Km in Baringo North. Under five mortality rates and Crude mortality rate (CMR) is stable are also below the emergency threshold. 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The average county immunization coverage between July and December 2016 increased to 67 from 58 percent recorded in the same period of 2015; however the coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. Increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to opening of the immunization sites, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program. Though the data indicate a declining trend, most patients did not see the need to visit hospitals due to health workers strike. Vitamin A coverage between July and December 2016 average 36 percent but remains far below the national target of 80 percent. However, there was an increase of 8.5 percent compared to the same period of 2015. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central, East Pokot and Koibatek Sub-Counties. 3.3 Utilization Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the pastoral livelihood zones. Households in the Mixed, irrigated zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 10-12 litres and 12-15litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub- county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.1 Nutritional status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition increased from 15 in December to 18 percent in January 2017 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 8). Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the Pastoral. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months. Nutritional status is expected to deteriorate until April 2017 when the Long rains are expected. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 8: Malnutrition rates with cows milk as early as two weeks. Data from CHANIS indicate declining trend from August to December 2016. Admission of children with moderate acute malnutrition admitted to supplementary feed program (SFP) between August and October 2016 has also shown a declining trend. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock shared open water sources with people. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid and amoeba have been reported in the pastoral and agropastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households practice open defaecation in pastoral livelihood zone, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. 3.4 Access to Basic Education Enrolment has declined in East Pokot due to lack of food in schools. Koibatek was the only sub- County that registered steady increase of enrolment for both boys and girls. Early childhood development centres (ECDE) enrolment declined generally in all the sub- counties, except Baringo central where an increased enrolment was noted due to reduced distance of ECDE centres after the county government constructed ECDE centres. The cause of poor enrolment was caused by the discontinuation of school meals program (SMP) by the national government. Baringo County has a total enrolment of 141,288 pupils with73,359 boys 67,929 girls. ECDE enrolment stands at 52,111 with 27,160 boys and 25,570 girls in January 2017 compared to February 2016 where there were 74,040 boys and 69,142 girls totalling 143,179 pupils. School attendance for both primary and ECDE has been hindered by withdrawal of SMP. Hotspots in the education sector include the primary schools without school meals programme (SMP) in 6 sub counties of Baringo East, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio and Koibatek. Schools under Home-grown School Meals Programme (HSMP) are 218; those under RSMP are 113 out of 667 Schools in the County. Schools affected by insecurity include Kapedo secondary school, Silale primary School, Lomelo primary School, Kapedo Girls and Kapedo Mixed primary schools in Turkana East. Approximately 40 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying up of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Schools affected include Tirioko Ward (Chemayes, Kapunyany, Kimian, Kangiruru, Sukut, Krezee Embositit, Ngeleyo, , Kore lach, Ptikii, Napur, Chepkarerat, Chepotindar Primary Schools), Kollowa-Loiwat Ward ( Kerelon, Loiwat, Tilingwa, Lodengo, Pkaghit and Tukomoi Primary Schools, Loiwat Secondary School and Dispensary) and Silale Ward (Natan, Primary, Napeikore School and community, Naudo School and community, Akwichatis Primary and Dispensary, Nalekat, Riongo Primary, Dispensary and community) in East Pokot. 3.5 Trends of key food security indicators Table 11: Trends of key food security indicators INDICATOR LRA 2016 SRA 2017 Average water distance from source(km) Average walking distance of 3.5-5 Pastoral: 6-10 km Agro-pastoral: 6-10 km Irrigated agricultural: Mixed Farming: Cost of water at source Ksh. 2-5 Ksh. 3-5 Consumption (Litrespersonday) 15-20 litres in pastoral and agro- pastoral zones, 20-25 litres in Irrigated zones and mixed farming zone. 10-12 litres in pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated zones and 12-15litres in mixed farming zones. Goat Prices Average at Ksh 2,585 Average 2,226 Maize pricesKilogram Average Ksh 40 Average Ksh. 55kg (Pastoral Agro-p: 60, Mixed Irrigated: Ksh 30-35Kg Terms of Trade 63kilogramgoat 40Kilogramgoat Maize stock held 69 percent of LTA 68 percent of LTA Livestock Body condition Good to fair in pastoral zones for large stocks. Good for small stocks across livelihood zones. Pastoral: poor Agro-pastoral: Fair to poor Irrigated agricultural: Good to fair, Mixed Farming: Good to fair. Coping strategy Index Mean CSI: 15 Mean CSI: 20 (Jan) Pastoral:23.8, Agro-pastoral: 15.6, Irrigated zone:4.2 and Fishing zone: 14.9. Food Consumption Score Poor-1.3percent Poor-19 percent (Jan 2017) Borderline-8 percent Borderline-32.0 percent Acceptable-90.7 percent Acceptable-49 percent Food security phase Stressed in pastoral and agro-pastoral: Minimal in irrigated agricultural and mixed Farming zone: Crisis in pastoral Agro-pastoral zones. Stressed in Mixed and Irrigated zones Dietary diversity 1-2 meals in pastoral and agro- pastoral zones. 2-3 meals in mixed and Irrigated agricultural zones. 1-2 meals across the livelihood zones. MUAC135mm 15 percent 18 percent Vitamin A supplementation 40.2 percent 36 percent 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: Given the October - December 2016 short rains crop production was far much below average, the proportion of households relying on market supplies will increase. The available pasture will last for three months in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone. Available browse is likely to last 3 months in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and one month in agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zone. Food deficit in the county is likely to be met by imports by traders, and this is likely to push prices of maize and other basic commodities up Farm inputs including certified seed stock, fertilizers and tractor services are likely to be availed and subsidized by the County Government in a timely manner thus households will increase crop production during the long rains season. Distances to water sources for domestic and livestock are likely to continue to increasing thereby reducing income activities and negatively affecting livestock body condition. The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with good rainfall amounts 4.2 Food security Outlook February to April: The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). However, the agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zones are likely to worsen or expand their scope, meaning more people and livestock affected, and in Stressed and crisis respectively. May to June: Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate with most households consuming less than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to increase. Food consumption score is expected to deteriorate with households consuming less food groups until April. Coping strategy Index will increase with households applying more consumption based strategies. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase across the county. Most pans have dried up due to siltation and require urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that pans dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need to provide water and food to schools especially in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Vulnerable households especially in the pastoral need to be supported for the next six months to enable them meet their basic food requirements. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Highest food gap is in Tiaty. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of the findings Nutrition status of children under five years is deteriorating with 18 percent of children at risk of malnutrition in the month of January 2017. There are no food stocks left in pastoral zones and agro- pastoral zones and households are depending on market purchases. Pasture is already depleted in pastoral livelihood zone and poor in the agro-pastoral zone. However, pasture is fair in the mixed and irrigated zones and is expected to last for 2-3 months. Most livestock is grazing within the county but there is a lot of movements towards Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. Markets are operating normally with the average maize price being Ksh. 55 per kg and goat at Ksh 2,226. A household was able to exchange 40 kilograms with the sale of a goat in Janaury, 2017. Declining livestock prices is due to due to distress sales to pay school fees and fear of losses as a result of drought. About 80 percent of water pans have dried up due to high siltation levels. Water consumption is normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated zones ranging from 15-25 litres per person per day. Though water consumption has remained more less the same, return distances have increased to 6-10km in the pastoral and the agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some schools have no access to food leading to poor attendance rates. 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking Table 12: Sub County Food Security Ranking Sub County Main food security threat (if any) Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (2) East Pokot (Tiaty) Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Baringo North Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Mogotio Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, livestock disease. Baringo South Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict Baringo Central Depletion of pasture, high food prices in migration Eldama Ravine In-migration of Livestock from Nakuru county and livestock movements from other parts of the County 5.1.4 Factors to monitor Onset and progress of the coming long rains, which is the most reliable for agriculture Situation of water sources for both domestic and livestock Livestock movements and in and out migration of livestock Conflicts which may arise out of common resource use Livestock diseases surveillance and vaccinations 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Table 13: Food interventions Name of counties No. of schools Other Specify Total Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Girls MOGOTIO 10481 21240 BARINGO 14482 13682 EPOKOT 9006 7727 10298 8138 MARIGAT 10031 9572 12565 11926 B. NORTH 14482 13686 KOIBATEK 90 13937 13241 Sub Total 38077 35735 9006 7727 22024 20163 74040 69142 Grand total 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions On-going interventions: 1. WATER SECTOR County Intervention LocationWard No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame Water Trucking All sub-counties 1200HHs County Covernment July 2016-June Infrastructure development , WS pipeline extension, Water Pans and General All sub-counties 3,170HH County Covernment July 2016-June Rehabilitations WASH activities and Establishment of water management Committees and Capacity development All sub-counties 1860HHs GoK, CDF County Gov. JICA, WV, KRDP, NDMA. Action AID July 2016-June 2. LIVESTOCK SECTOR County Intervention LocationWard No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame Baringo Disease control(vaccinations against FMD and Countywide 137,000 Cattle 192,000 Sheep and goats MOALF, RPLRP Reduced incidences of livestock diseases leading to improved livestock body condition Nov 2016- December2016 Baringo Feeds distribution households MOALF, RPLRP Increase in pasture production for improved livestock productivity July 2016- August 2016 Baringo Recruitment of Farmers for Livestock Insurance 2,000 households National government Ensure HH are empowered to access feeds and livestock drugs during drought period Dec 2016-Jan 3. HEALTH NUTRITION Vitamin A Supplementation County wide MOH, WVK Improved child immunity 380,000 December 2016 Supplementation County wide Health Services Reduce severity of Diarrhoea 240,000 December 2016 Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) County wide WVKUNICEF and WPP Safe life And prevent under nutrition 24,000,000 December 2016 IYCN Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) County wide MOH, WVK Promote proper child growth development 2,000,000 Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women County wide MOH, WVK Reduced child morbidity and mortality KSH 540,000 August 2016- December 2016 Pokot County SMART Survey East Pokot Ksh1,229,550 December 2016- Jan, 217 Deworming County wide MOH, WVK Increase food intake and utilization KSH 450,000 Sept.2016- December 2016 Total 27,610,000 4. AGRICULTURE All (Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central, sampling and testing County wide Increased food production and right use of inputs 400,000 July 2016-June Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine Fruits trees developmen County Wide Environmental Conservation and food security 3,000,000 July 2016-June All (Baringo South, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine Green house farming County Wide Increased food production 2.5 Million July 2016-June Value addition , preservation and nutrition All wards 60 groups AL F Improved food utilization and value addition 560,000 July 2016-June All wards Normal Extension messages All wards Improved food security 1,000,000 July 2016- June Baringo North DLRSP Barwessa Farmers MOA Increased productivity and resilience to communities 50,000,000 July 2016- June Baringo North Gulley protection Kabartonjo Farmers MOALF Reduced soil erosion and improved environmental conservation 300,000 July 2016-June Tiaty Protection of Lomet agricultural Kolloa Farmers , AL Enhanced household food security and peace 1 year 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 15: Proposed population in need of food assistance Sub-County Population Projected Population Pop in need ( range min max Proposed intervention Remarks (Hotspots) East Pokot 133,189 20-25 Churo,Amaya, Putoro, Tebelekwo, Kaptuya, all locations in Tirioko, Kolloa, Ribkwo, Silale, Loiyamorok, EDUCATION SECTOR county Intervention Location (where it is located) No. of beneficiaries Implementers Impacts in terms of food security Time Frame NORTH Provision of items(HGSMP, CSMP) Kipkata,sibilo Kelyo,bartum and kaboskei GOK,CG Parents wvk NGOs Increase enrolment, high transition rate and retention Mogotio Assistance from Kiptoim, cheberen,kapterit, Pupils retention Baringo central Planting of mangoes in primary schools Kaptara, salawa, chesongo, kapyemit Gok, CG,Partners Food security 2014-2018 Marigat HGSMP,relief food from CG, planting of pawpaw,peace building Marigat,kimalel,salabani Mugutani, arabal,ewalel Ngambo Noosuguro,kiserian Barsemoi Gok, Moe, WFP, Trspupils,WVK Religious group,SCC Increase access to education,improve Heald status,improve income generation activities 2016-2018 (Tiaty) TangulbeiKorosi Baringo North 93,789 15-20 Kapkata(, Saimo, Kapkoiwa, Terik), Kaboskei Kerio (Ayatia, Kuikui, Maregut), Kabutiei: (Kapluk, Katibel, Muchukwo), Lawan (Kaptilimwo, Keturwo, Konoo), Kinyach, Kaboskei, Ngoroba, Barketiew, Yatya, Loruk, Rondonin, Sibilo, Bartum(Akorian, Kipcherere,Koroto, Taimon Mogotio 48,129 15-20 Kisanana, Ngendal, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Waseges, Mugurin Baringo South 84,256 10-15 Bekibon, Kibingor,Kimondis Tuluongoi, Kamungei, Chemeron, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny, Kasiela, Sandai, Mbechot Baringo Central 78,095 Salawa, Manach, Koitilion, Kabusa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, Saimet, Koibarak, Ochii, Cheplambus, Eitui, Kisonei, Sorok Koibatek 118,103 Muserechi, Madina, Esageri , Saos 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions 1. WATER Sub County Intervention Location Ward No. of beneficiarie Proposed Implementer Required Resources Available Resources Time Frame All Sub counties Provision of PVC tanks of10,000 lts Capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres Institutions County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, 10.8M Improved roof structures and technical backstopping By June 2017 All Sub Counties Provide fueldiesel subsidy to community Ws households County Government, 14.5 M Water infrastructural facilities June 2017 All Sub Counties Water trucking and Water treatment Chemicals Institutions County Government, Human reso June 2017 All Sub Counties Design and Construction of Multi-purpose 55,000 County Government, Land technical expertise 2015 2017 Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Mechanized de- silting and expansion of 24No. Critical water pans while Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio 45,000Hous eholds County Government, Land technical expertise Feb 2017- April 2017 2. LIVESTOCK Baringo Distribution of hay and food supplements to the affected livestock -Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 41,500 HH Department Agriculture Livestock fisheries- 54.088 M Jan 2017-April,2017 Baringo Water tracking to ease conflict between livestock, domestic and schools BaringoN -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 41,500 HH Water Budget Jan 2017-April,2017 Baringo Disease control(vaccinati Countywide National 8,273M Jan 2017-April,2017 ons against FMD,CCPP, NCD,LSD) government Development partners and Baringo Commercial offtake for 2,000 cattle 2,000 households Department Agriculture Livestock and fisheries stakeholders Feb 2017-April,2017 Baringo Emergency Livestock offtake Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 2,000HH BCG(MOAL F),Nat. Govt. Feb 2017-April,2017 3. HEALTH NUTRITION Rapid Assessment Baringo County 94,000 MOHNDM AWVKKR 900,000 300,000 Feb 2017 Intensify Mass screening and referrals Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub- counties 94,000 MOHWV WFPKRC 846,000 200,000 February 2017 Provision of supplements facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVK KRCWFP 900,000 100,000 February 2017 Integrated outreach services 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 counties 96,850 MOH WVK KSH 1,873,250 267,600 February SMART Survey County 654,000 MOH WVK 3,000,000,000 340,000 June 2017 Total 5,833,250 4. AGRICULTURE Provision of Relief Inputs (seeds and Fertilizers) to Farmers (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet) 18 Wards 15,200 Households (15,200 acres ALF, NDMA, and other Stakeholders Seeds (Maize, Beans, Cowpeas and Finger Millet. Fertilizers (Basal and Top dressing) Fuel, Subsistence allowance for officers Total Kshs 167,580,000 Farms Feb 2017-March 2017 Subsidized Land preparation for affected households 18 Wards 15, 200 Households Tractors, Fuel, Subsistence allowance. Total Kshs:10,000,000 County Tractors, AMS station Feb,2017-March, 2017 Asset creation programme 25 Wards 1,000 HH MoALF, NDMA, WFP and other Stakeholders Cash, Subsistence personnel, motor vehicles Vehicles, fuel 2017-2022 Tiaty Expansion of irrigation Kolowa County Govt, NIB, KVDA 2years Fencing of irrigation scheme Kolowa County Govt, NIB, KVDA Poles 1 year County wide Mapping out of areas for construction of water dams for irrigation Tirioko, Ribkwo, Silale Kollowa wards 10,000 County , and National governments 10 Billion -Seasonal rivers -Fertile land -Labour 5 years Mogotio Fruit Trees Establishment MOALF, KVDA, KARI, HCDA, Seedlings Funds Skilled Personnel Unskilled Labour March 2017 to June Mogotio conservation and water harvesting Kipngoro Cheberen MOALF MOWI, World vision Funds Springs Land labour March 2017- June 2017 Mogotio Green Houses -County department of Agriculture -Hortipro -Red cross -Amiran Kenya ltd Green Houses Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers Water One year Mogotio Drip kits County department of Agriculture -Hortipro -Red cross Drip kits Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers Water One year -Amiran Kenya ltd Mogotio Affruitation -County department of Agriculture Vehicle Subsistence Technical staff Farmers One year Baringo north Environmental conservation Barwessa a wards MOALFMO Funds By 2017 Baringo north Purchase of shade nets in dry areas instead of greenhouses Barwessa aSaimo soi wards County government Construction materials and a shed net Feb, 2017- June 2017 5. EDUCATION Baringo north Regular feeding programme to all schools. locations Ministry of agriculture Provision of food items(beans, maize, rice and cooking oil Human resource Jan 2017 Feb 2018 Provision of improved seeds to the community. improving of food storage techniques in schools and community locations 150 schools Ministry of agriculture, Pesticides, storage structures, Improved subsidized seeds to farmers and schools. Land, labour Jan 2017 Feb 2018 Mogotio Be included in the HGSFP Kiptoim, Cheberen and Sirwa MOESTCou Food or Money Manpower and Physical facilities 3 Years Marigat Boarding facilities in primary schools to enhance retention in insecure areas Mukutani Mochong oi zones 10 schools -NGOs -County Government -Dormitories -Food supply -Water By end of 2017 East Pokot Purchase of: -bee hives -goats -camels -cows schools pupils -Teachers -Parents -Education office -Goats -Beehives -Camels -Cows -Food Grazing field Bushes for hives 2017-2018 Baringo Central Improve honey production Kapkelel -Line ministries -Community -Hives Agriculture -Technical advice -Land -Support from the community",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2015.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2015 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County February 2016 1 Victoria Amwoliza Gioto (National Drought Management Authority) Kennedy Osano (World Food Programme) and Joseph Chege (USAID) INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 3 County Background.......................................................................................................... 3 Current Factors Affecting Food Security ......................................................................... 3 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION ....................................................................... 3 Food Security Trends ....................................................................................................... 4 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 4 Current Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................ 4 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS ....................... 5 Crop Production ............................................................................................................... 5 Livestock Production........................................................................................................ 6 Water and Sanitation ........................................................................................................ 8 Markets and Trade ............................................................................................................ 9 Health and Nutrition ....................................................................................................... 10 Education ........................................................................................................................ 12 Coping Mechanisms ....................................................................................................... 13 On-going Interventions by Sector .................................................................................. 14 Sub-County Ranking ...................................................................................................... 17 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ....................................................................................... 17 Prognosis Assumptions .................................................................................................. 17 Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months .................................................... 17 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 18 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 18 Summary of Recommendations ..................................................................................... 18 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................. 18 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) ...... 18 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) ................................................................ 19 INTRODUCTION County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of 11,015.3 square kilometres population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009 census report). The county has Lakes Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. It has four main livelihood zones: mixed farming, pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood zone is 43 percent, 31percent, 22 percent and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). It is divided into six sub-counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. Current Factors Affecting Food Security The current factors affecting food security include livestock pests and diseases, poor road and water infrastructure, poor rainfall distribution and untimely access of certified seeds. COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The performance of the short rains season was normal to above normal. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was fair. Currently the total maize stocks held in the county are about 89 percent of the normal. Current meal frequency for children under-five and adults is at an average of 2 3 meals a day across all the livelihood zones which are normal. Water consumption in all livelihood zones is above the Long Term Average (LTA): in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones it is 12 15 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 10 12 litres, while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones it is 15 20 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 12 15 litres. The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC 135 millimetres) in January 2016 was 12 percent which was below the LTA of 16.6 percent. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate was 6.9 percent (Kenya demographic health survey, 2014). The mean coping strategy index (CSI) in December 2015 was 29 compared with 21 in December 2014, implying that households were engaging more frequently in insurance coping strategies. Terms of trade are 68 compared with LTA of 66, a three percent increase. Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping Figure 1. Population Distribution by Livelihood Food Security Trends During the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) of 2015, the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones were classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones were classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1).With fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution of short rains, the county phase classification has remained the same. In May 2015, household food consumption scores were 15 percent, 51 percent and 34 percent for poor, borderline and acceptable categories respectively. However, by December 2015, the households with poor borderline and acceptable food consumption scores had improved to eight, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The available maize stocks are estimated to last for 3 4 months in mixed farming livelihood zone whereas pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent. Households are able to consume 2 3 meals per day which is similar to the previous season. Household milk production in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones was 1.5 litres compared to the normal of 2 litres per day. Milk consumption was 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres. Milk production and consumption remained similar to the previous season. Since August 2015, water consumption has remained stable at 17.5 liters per person per day. Terms of trade have improved in the pastoral livelihood zone by eight percent in the last six months where a household could purchase 68 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with 63 kilograms in the previous season. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC 135 millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016, indicative of an improvement in nutrition levels. Rainfall Performance The onset was timely in the second dekad (10 day period) of October. Rainfall amounts were generally above percent normal characterized by fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution. Most of the Upper Northern and Southern Eastern tip part of the county especially Kolowa and parts of Kisamana received 140 to 200 percent of normal rainfall. The lower Northern part of the county received 125-140 percent of normal rainfall including areas of Bartabwa, Kabartonjo Mukutani. Western, Northeastern, South Western and Upper Southern received 90-125 percent of normal rainfall. Rainfall cessation was timely in the third dekad of December, although off season rains continued into January 2016 across all livelihood zones. Current Shocks and Hazards The reported diseases in the county included; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Koibatek sub- county, Contagious Caprine Pleura pneumonia (CCPP) across all livelihood zones, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), new castle disease across all livelihood zones, East Coast Fever (ECF) in Figure 2. Rainfall performance Koibatek and Churo ward in East Pokot, Lumphy Skin Disease at Barwessa ward and Mogotio- Cheberen, and the ongoing rite of passage in East Pokot. IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS Crop Production The County is most depended on long rains for crop production. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans and cowpeas. Crop production contributes 20, 10 and five percent to food in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. It also contributes 35 percent, four percent and 60 percent to income in the same livelihood zones respectively. Table 1. Rain fed Crop production Area planted during 2015 Short rains season Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2015 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,394 1,205 13,940 15,062 Beans 1,663 1,276 11,695 10,773 Cowpeas Area under cultivation for maize crop increased by 189 hectares indicative of 16 percent increase above the LTA attributed to above normal rainfall and managed incidences of Maize Lethal Neocrotic Disease (MLND). The hectares under beans and cowpeas increased by 387 and 45 hectares respectively above LTA which is attributed to enhanced short rains and widespread sensitization on utilization of above normal rains. However, there was a decrease in projected maize production by 7.44 percent compared to the LTA (Table 1), attributed to delayed planting in some areas consequently the received rains not supporting the crop to physiological maturity. For beans production increased by nine percent while for cow peas production increased significantly by 245 percent compared to the LTA due to above normal rainfall which led to maturity of the crops in most of the zones that they were established. The area planted for other crops such as Irish potatoes, peas, finger millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes during the short rains also improved due to intensified campaigns to utilize above normal rains. Irrigated Crop Table 2. Irrigated Crops Production Area planted during the 2015 Short rains season Long Term Average (3 years) area planted during Short rains season (ha) 2015 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long Term Average (3 years) production during 2015 Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 62,500 Kales Water melon 1800 MT 1600 MT Irrigation is mainly practiced in Marigat, and Baringo North sub counties. The irrigated area of maize and kales increased by eight and 13 percent while that of tomatoes and water melon increased by four and 13 percent respectively compared to the LTA (Table 2). The increase in the hectare for all the four main crops could be attributed to increased water volumes in the rivers that feed the irrigation areas as a result of enhanced rains in the upper areas and widespread sensitization to utilize the above normal rains by the Ministry of Agriculture. Production of maize and kales increased by eight and 14 percent respectively while tomatoes and water melon increased four and 12.5 percent respectively compared to the LTA. Maize stocks Table 3 Maize Stocks in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90- kg bags) Long Term Average quantities held (90-kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 363,514 414,835 Traders 84,639 87,209 Millers 17,016 18,956 30,840 37,226 Total 496,009 558,226 Stocks held at households decreased by 12 percent compared to LTA. For traders and millers, the stocks decreased by three percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA as result of poor harvest of 2015 long rains season across all livelihood zones. NCPB stocks decreased by 17 percent compared with LTA and this is attributed to low supply and increased purchases from millers and traders. In the mixed farming zone stocks are expected to last for three to four months however both the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent which is normal. Livestock Production The major livestock in the county are cattle, goats and sheep. Production of honey is significant for income generation especially in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 23, 50, 88 and eight percent respectively to cash income. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 25, 20 21 and eight percent to food income respectively Pasture and Browse Pasture condition was good in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone and fair across the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone which was slightly better than normal with exceptions in areas of agro-pastoral areas of Majimoto and Kamar, Pastoral areas of Mondi, Silale, Akwichatis, Sibilo, Barketiew, Akorian and irrigated areas of Kiserian where the conditions were poor. Table 4 Pasture Duration Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Current 1-2 months 1-2 months 3-4 months 3-4 months Normal 1 month 2 months 3 months 3 months In the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones on farm crop residues were used to supplement livestock feeds. Browse condition is good across the mixed farming, irrigated and the agro-pastoral livelihood zones but fair in pastoral livelihood zone. The browser condition is normal at this time of the year and is expected to last for two months with an exception of pastoral livelihood zone where it is to last for one month. Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was good to fair across all livelihood zones which is above normal except in the localized areas named above which was fair. Normally, the condition is fair across all the livelihood zones at this time of the year but for goats and sheep was good which is normal. Birth rate and Tropical livestock Units (TLU) The TLU in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone was 1.9 for the poor households compared to normal of three per household while 3.2 for medium households compared to 3.7 the same season last year. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the TLU was 2.3 for poor while for medium households were 3.95 compared to 4.2 TLU the same season last year. A variation on average number of livestock was attributed to seasonal rainfall variations affecting forage availability and livestock diseases. The birth rates are normal for all livestock species but expected to decline attributed to livestock diseases, availability of forage and distances to water Milk availability and Consumption Milk availability at household level varies across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones households are producing 1.5 litres of milk compared to normal of two litres. Milk consumption in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones at household level is 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres of which the deficit of one litre is from purchases. Milk availability in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood was at 4.5 litres per day per household which is normal. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, households currently consume two litres which is normal at this time of the year. The current price of milk is Ksh 60 75 per litre in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which is normal. However, for the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone the cost of milk is normal at Ksh 50 per litre which is normal at this time of the year. Water for Livestock The major water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, streams, and rivers. The permanent natural sources are Lakes Baringo, Kamnarok and Lake 94; the rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Waseges, Molo, Arabal and Mukutani. The current trekking return distance from grazing to watering points is 4 7 kilometres which were normal in the pastoral livelihood zone with exception of Tiaty (Mondi ward) where the return distances were 7 10 kilometres. In the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones, the return distance to water source was 1 3 kilometres which was normal. Water for livestock is expected to last for 1.5 months in pastoral, two months in agro-pastoral and throughout in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones which are normal. The frequency of watering livestock in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone is daily. However for the pastoral livelihood zone it is after every other day which is normal at this season. Migration The main grazing route encountered include Marigat-Arabal due to improved security, East Pokot towards Paka and Chesirimion, Maji-moto to L. Bogoria in search of pastures, Marigat to Kipcherere and Sibilo as fall back after improvement of pastures in those areas, Baringo North towards Barwessa. The normal out migration route was to Elgeiyo Marakwet County. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The reported diseases in the county were FMD in Koibatek sub-county, CCPP across all livelihood zones, PPR in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), New Castle Disease in Kipsasaraman, Salawa, ECF Koibatek, Baringo north, Baringo Central Mogotio-Kelelwa, Kipsogon, Sinende, Lumphy Skin Disease at Kerio Valley area and Mogotio-Cheberen, Rabies Baringo Central, Mange-Sibilo, Kolowa and Yatya and Blackquarter Baringo North-Yatya. The county reported 80 mortalities of cattle and 40 goats and sheep due to bloat. Water and Sanitation Major water sources The current main water sources in Baringo County are riversstreams, springs, lakes, boreholes and pansdams. In the mixed farming zone along the highlands of Tugen Hills, rivers, streams and springs are the main water sources while water pans, boreholes and to some extent riversstreams are the main water sources in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. Most open water sources had approximately 70-80 percent recharge level. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, recharge was between 80 to 90 percent attributed to the October-November-December (OND) heavy rains however in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the recharge levels were 60-70 percent attributed to high evaporation due to high temperatures and high levels of siltation. Distance to water sources The current return distances to water sources are 3 5 kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zone, 3 4 kilometres in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and 0.52.5 kilometres in the mixed farming livelihood zone and irrigated livelihood zones compared with the normal of 4 6 kilometres, 45 kilometres, 0.52 kilometres in the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones respectively. Waiting Time The waiting time at water source was within the range of 5 10 minutes in both the pastoral livelihood zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Mixed farming waiting time was within 2 3 minutes which is normal. Exceptional points like Kamar, Koibos, Molos and Majimoto, in Mogotio Sub-County, Bekibon, kapkun, Mbechot, Poi, Tuluongoiin Baringo south and Kasilangwa, Amaya and Keriwok in East Pokot Sub-county, the distance to water sources ranges between seven to eight kilometres and waiting time of 40 60 minutes. Figure 3: Maize prices trends for Baringo County Price (Ksh. kg) Cost of water and consumption The cost of water varies across all livelihood zones. Water drawn from pans and rivers is free. However, from boreholes and piped schemes a 20 litre jerrican costs Ksh 2 5. In both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, this is normal while in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the cost of water is Ksh 2 3 which is normal. Water consumption is between 12 15 litres per person per day compared to the LTA of 10 15 litres per person per day in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone whereas in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone water consumption is at 15 - 20 litres per person per day compared to LTA of 12 15 litres per person per day. Sanitation and Hygiene Water in rivers, streams and pans were contaminated with human waste and upstream human activities. Water borne diseases such as typhoid and dysentery were common in the county especially in the pastoral and agropastoral zones for instance in Kambi ya Wakulima in Mogotio. About 95 percent of community members in pastoral and agro-pastoral do not treat water at household level. However, in irrigated and mixed farming approximately 50 percent treat their water through boiling and or use water guard. Water is normally stored in tins, plastic tanks or jerricans. Hand washing practices is at approximately 10-20 percent within pastoral and agro-pastoral whereas in irrigated zones and mixed farming livelihood zones is at about 40-50 percent. Markets and Trade Market operations The main markets are Kabarnet, Eldama Ravine, Tenges, Barwessa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Iloti, Amaya and Kapchorua. Food commodities sold are maize, beans, Irish potatoes, sorghum and finger millet while major livestock traded included: goats, sheep and cattle. Market operations were normal in all livelihoods. However, there was quarantine in Kapcholua in Koibatek in September 2015 of which ring vaccination for 20,000 cattle and situation was contained. Maize prices Maize price was retailing at Ksh 41per kilogramme across the livelihood zones; this was 7.8 percent above the LTA of Ksh 38 (Figure 3). There was gradual decline of maize from July to December 2015. This could be attributed to availability of maize from the long rains harvests. Stable maize prices were observed both in the mixed farming agro-pastoral livelihood zones at an average of Ksh 44 per kilogramme while pastoral livelihood zone recorded Ksh 50 per kilogramme, irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 42 and Mixed Farming. Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County Kilograms of maize exchanged for a goat Figure 4: Goat prices trends for Baringo Price (Ksh.) Goat price Goat price was Ksh 2,780 compared to LTA of Ksh 2,395 (Figure 4). The current price increased by 16 percent compared to the LTA and decreased by two percent in comparison to the month of August 2015 price. Higher goat price was observed in the irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 3,000 compared to Ksh 2,335 in the pastoral livelihood zone and Ksh 2,800 in agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone. High price was attributed to forces of supply and demand as well the ongoing rites of passage. Terms of trade Households currently purchase 68 kilogrammes of maize from a sale of one goat (Figure 5). The current terms of trade (TOT) were favourable to pastoralists and increased by 6 percent compared kilogrammes and also increased by eight percent compared to August 2015 price. This is attributed to market forces of supply and demand. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 55, irrigated livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 86 while agro-pastoral and mixed farming recorded a TOT of 65. Health and Nutrition Morbidity and mortality patterns The five predominant diseases reported for both children under-five and general population were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infections. Generally, the morbidity for children under-five was high in 2015 than in 2014 (Figure 6) .URTI, malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infection recorded an increase of 15 percent, 20 percent, 33 percent, 16 percent and one percent between January-December 2015 respectively compared to 2014. 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 Diarrhoea Eye Infection Figure 7: Morbidity Trend for general Population 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 Diarrhoea Pneumonia Figure 6: Morbidity Trend for under five URTI, malaria and diarrhoea cases increased by six percent, 30 percent and 29 percent respectively between January-December comparison with 2014 the same period whereas pneumonia and eye infection cases slightly reduced by percent percent respectively in 2015 as compared to 2014 (Figure 7). The distance to the health facilities on average in the pastoral areas is 2050 kilometres depending on the location. This is an improvement kilometres reported in 2014. In the mixed farming irrigated livelihood zones, the average distances remained the same in 2015 as in 2014. The decrease morbidity general population is attributed to the efforts put in place by both the county government and partners at the community and health facility level to improve health and nutrition services in the county. Trends of epidemic prone diseases There was a significant reduction of malaria, typhoid and other intestinal worms cases between July and December 2015 compared to 2014 same period by 60 percent, 14, percent and 50 percent respectively while dysentery and diarrhoea recorded an increase of reported cases of 10 percent and 11 percent respectively. There was a significant reduction of malaria and typhoid by 59 percent and 13.6 percent respectively for July to December 2015 compared to same period in 2014. This is attributed to the change of diagnosis from clinical to only rapid testing for malaria as a criterion of treatment occasioned by the availability of the rapid testing kits, the reduction in other diseases is attributed to community led total sanitation coupled with awareness and sensitization. This was largely seen in parts of both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones. Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation The coverage of fully immunized children under five was 58.25 percent for the period July to December 2015, compared to 55.1 percent in the same period in 2014. This is below the national target of 80 percent. The percentage of children immunized against Oral Polio Vaccine 1 (OPV 1), OPV 3 and Measles was 99.1 percent, 98.8 percent and 95.3 percent respectively between July and December 2014 while coverage decreased slightly to 97 percent, 98 percent, and 92 percent respectively between July and December 2015. Vitamin A supplementation coverage for at risk (MUAC135mm) Figure 8: Percentage of children at risk of malnutrition children aged 6 and 12 months between July and December 2015 improved by 32 percent from 46.87 percent in 2014 to 62.2 percent the in 2015. Likewise, Vitamin A supplementation for children between 12 and 59 months increased by 62 percent between July to December 2015 from 14 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2015. The latrine coverage in the county was poor but there was an increase from 53.7 percent in 2014 to 59.2 percent in 2015. This could be due to reactivation of community health units and effort by public health unit to increase the coverage as a recommendation from LRA. Latrine coverage is approximately 79 percent for mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, 16 20 percent for pastoral (lowest coverage) and 49 percent for agro-pastoral. The low coverage is a likely a contributor to the current levels of morbidity trend among children below five years of age. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity Kenya Demographic Health Survey (KNBS, 2014) indicated GAM rate 0f 6.9 percent. SMART survey (2015) reported a GAM rate of 18.8 percent in pastoral livelihood zone, reduction from 21.1 percent observed in 2014. The county GAM was poor based on KDHS results while the East Pokot GAM was critical based on survey results according to World Health Organization (WHO) ranking. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016 indicative of improvement (Figure 9).The levels of GAM noted in 2015 are associated mainly with poor child care practices across the livelihood zones but more pronounced in pastoral livelihood zone. The meal frequency for children aged between 6 to 23 months in a day was 2 3 meals as compared to the required 3 4 meals per day. Meal frequency was normal at this particular period of the year. Food Consumption Score (FCS) for households was poor, borderline and adequate at eight percent, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The situation is above normal at this time of the year. The main meals consumed were maize, potatoes, milk and beans. Education The county has 662 Primary schools, 955 early childhood education centres (ECDE) and 152 Secondary schools in 2015 third term. Enrolment TABLE 5 Enrolment figures PRIMARY SECONDARY 49,239 139,362 35,500 154,954 36,096 Compared with the same period in 2014, there was a notable increase in enrolment of 12 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent in ECDE, primary and secondary respectively across all the livelihood zones by the end of the third term 2015 (Table 5). Boys and girls primary enrolment increased across all the livelihood zones by 3.1 percent and five percent respectively in February 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, while at ECDE the increases were 3 percent and 4.2 percent respectively for the same period. However, enrolment in the pastoral livelihood zone reduced by 4.5 percent for primary and 13.5 percent for ECDE for the same period, attributed to early marriages for most girls and initiation of boys from November-December 2015 (continuing). The school meals programme, the employment of an additional 1,833 ECDE teachers by the county government and the opening of more ECDE centres also promoted the increase in enrolment Drop out The dropout rate at ECDE was at 3.5 percent in 2015 attributed to insecurity in the pastoral livelihood zone especially in the second term, whereas primary school dropout rate was at 6.5 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, attributed to insecurity and ongoing rite of passage in the pastoral livelihood zone. Attendance Rate Table 6. Rate of attendance as a percent of the enrolment Indicator Term I-2015 Term II-2015 Term III -2015 School attendance (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) (Nos.) Girls (Nos.) Primary 93.5 91.8 94.08 94.23 92.13 95.3 94.8 94.8 The rate of attendance as a percentage of the enrolment remained stable for both boys and girls in primary and ECDE in 2015 from term one to term three across the County (Table6) School Meals Programme The county is implementing two types of school meals programme; Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) and Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP). By third term 2015, RSMP and was supporting 112 schools while HGSMP was supporting 218 primary schools. About 30,099 pupils are currently benefits from RSMP up from 26,560 pupils in 2014 a 13 percent increase whereas HGSMP supports about 73,944 pupils up from 64,472 pupils a 15 percent increase. Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI were five, 22 and 73 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2014 compared with eight, 23 and 69 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2015. Most common consumption related households coping strategies included; reducing the number of meals eaten per day, reducing the portion sizes of meals, relying on less preferred or less expensive food and borrowing food or relying on help from a friend or relative. On-going Interventions by Sector Non- food interventions (food security related) County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame AGRICULTURE Baringo Central Horticulture development project( Fruit trees development 2,500 County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security drip kit project County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security Baringo North Rehabilitation and expansion of Kiboi Irrigation scheme Barwesa National Government Improved supply availability of Affruitation project All wards County Government Improved access to food Continu Mogotio Horticulture development project( Fruit trees development 2,500 County department of Agriculture, County Government Increased incomes, productivity and food security Pokot Irrigated agriculture Tangulbei- Chemoigut Farmers WV,NDMA Enhanced household food security and peace Tenders floated 1 Year Bulking irish potato certified seeds (6Acres) Lembus County government and community Improved food security 1 Year Drip kits support to farmers( 10 kits) All wards County government and community Improved food security 1 Year Baringo South Subsidized ploughing All wards County government and community Improved production 1 Year LIVESTOCK SECTOR Forage establishment BarwesaSa imosoi Increase forage yield October Capacity Building Pastoral zones MOLDASDSP Better Quality July - County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame livestock er2015 Baringo north, Baringo South Provision of Beehives Mochongoi MOALF July - er2015 SaimoSoi Livestock upgrading All lowland wards Commercial off-take All Wards 800HH County Govt, Income to Farmers er, 2015 Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty Disease ations) RVF RVF prone areas in Marigat, SaimoSoi and East Pokot 250,000 Cattle SH, County livestock Health Disease ations) FMD Kapcholoi Cattle County Govt livestock Health Tick control- Construction County- Communiti County Govt -Tick-free livestock -Disease-free livestock HEALTH SECTOR County Vitamin A counties County department of health, supported by WVK and UNICEF Improved immunity in underfives resilience to illness. County counties County department of health Contributes to preventing mortality Jan County Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) counties County department of health Contributes to preventing mortality 3.696 Jan County Interventions counties County department of health Builds the resilience of caregivers Jan County Iron Folate on among Pregnant Women and Growth monitoring counties County department of health Supplements where there is inadequate diet diversity Jan - County Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of food security (Ksh, Million) Frame Pokot Capacity building on IMAM, MIYCN, County department of health, WVK and UNCEF Capacity of health workers to implement nutrition services Jan Strengthening of CHU community health units on nutrition 159,404 County department of health, WVK and UNCEF Capacity of community units to implement nutrition services Jan WATER SECTOR Baringo central, Baringo North, South Baringo BH drilling and equipping 100No. All Wards Improved water accessibility 1,800 2 Years Whole county Rehabilitation and expansion of existing ws All Wards 20,000 Baringo County tional Government Improved sustainable water supply services County Roof Water Harvesting to Institutions All Wards Institutions BCGRVWSB Improved water availability going County Expansion of irrigation schemes Marigat, North Baringo, Tiaty , Mogotio 5,000 Baringo County tional Government Improved food security at HH level EDUCATION SECTOR Pokot Construction of classroom Tangulbei Churo ECDPrima ry pupils Ation Aid Kenya Improved performance enrolment Months 201516 Advocacy on girl child-anti FGM forums Tangulbei Churo Primary School girls Ation Aid Kenya Improve retention and transition Scholarship for Girls Tangulbei Churo Ation Aid Kenya Kirerea Foundation Enhanced Transition from Primary to Secondary 0.405 Scaling up of Nutrition status Tangulbei Churo UNICEF through WVI Improve nutrition status of school going children Sub-County Ranking Sub County food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security rank (1-10) Main food security threat (if any) Mogotio Inadequate pastures for livestock Poor crop performance Long trekking distances to water points Low water recharge level High incidences of livestock diseases East Pokot Poor crop performance Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points High incidences of livestock diseases Baringo North Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points Baringo South Inadequate pastures for livestock Baringo Central Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Prognosis Assumptions The onset of the long rains in March, April and May will be timely and the temporal and spatial distribution will be favourable. The market prices for cereals and livestock products will remain stable for the next three months. The pasture and browse are expected to deteriorate in the next one month to early March especially in both the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones owing to the short dry spell. However from mid-March the situation is expected to improve. The peace stability will prevail. Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months Food Security outcomes from March to May Even though the food security situation is stressed for pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the number of households that will employ more frequent insurance coping strategies is expected to increase. Livestock sector production is likely to improve as pasture condition is expected to have regenerated and walking distances to watering point is expected to reduce. Cases of absenteeism and drop-outs are expected to reduce especially in ECDE across all the livelihood zones with the expected school feeding programme supported by the county government. Food Security Outcomes for June to August With the assumption that the 2016 long rain onset will be timely coupled with even spatial and fair temporal distribution, the above mentioned factors will be reversed. Terms of trade especially for pastoralists are expected to be favourable and food commodities prices are expected to decline. Milk production, food stocks, number of meals taken per day and dietary diversity per households across livelihood zones is expected to increase. The nutrition status of children under-five years is expected to remain stable following the availability of milk. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusion Pastoral livelihood is largely in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2) while agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase 1) expect Bartabwa area in the agro-pastoral livelihood which is classified in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The food security situation is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones with more household employing stressed coping strategies in pockets of pastoral and agro-pastoral areas including Emining, Mondi, Loyamorok and Tangulbei areas. The Key factors to monitor include pasture and browse condition, water availability and access, livestock body condition and livestock and food prices. Since the county is long rains dependent, good performance of long rains is expected generally to improve the food security situation in 2016. Summary of Recommendations Enhanced rangeland management (disease control, pasture establishment and water improvement. Livestock upgrading Roof water harvesting of institutions. Constructions of dams for irrigation water and domestic use. Provision of water treatment chemicals and construction of toilet facilities. Enhanced capacity building in water management and sanitation. Reactivation and strengthening of community health units. Sensitization and training of health workers on selected programmes( IMAM, IYCN and IMCI) Increasing hectarage under irrigated agriculture in the low land areas. Up-scaling and availing planting materials for drought tolerant crops. ANNEXES 6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) County Population in the Sub County Pop in need ( percent range min max Proposed mode of intervention Remarks Mogotio 48,129 10-15 Emining East Pokot 133,189 Mondi, Loyamorok, Tangulbei Baringo North 93,789 Saimosoi, Barwesa Baringo South 84,256 Mukutani, Mochogoi Baringo Central 78,095 118,103 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame HEALTH County Strengthen linkages with County 805 ECDs (53,505) department of health, WVK and UNICEF Personnel, logistics, personnel 1 year Funds (KSh.5.6 million) Sentinel sites Data quality assurance sentinel sites 12 sites NDMA, Department of health, WVK and UNICEF personnel Three months County Scale up of specifically IMAM to new health facilities County wide - health facilities 120 health facilities Department of health, WVK and UNICEF 2.5 million Personnel, RUTF, Drugs 1 year County Capacity building of newuntrained health workers on IMAM, IYCN County wide 120 health workers Department of health, WVK and UNICEF 1.5 million Personnel, trainers 1 year LIVESTOCK SECTOR Baringo North, Borehole construction for livestock water SaimoSoi 500HH National Government. Pasture seeds Land and labour Regional Pastoralist Resilience Project Facilitatio (KSh 4M) counties FMD Blanket Vaccination and purchase of vaccines locations 500,000 Cattle,120,00 Shoats20,000 birds GOK, KRDP, Other SHs 0.9M, Others - 4.25M Personnel,Veh icles ,Funds- counties Capacity Building on n(Beekeeping All Wards 600HH GOK,ASDSP KRDPEU, Action Aid, ACTED, Child Fund, WV(K) Training- 1M ,Hives Equipment s-24M July- Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Mogotio Pasture Establishment - Seeds, Training Lowland wards 2,500HH County Govt., National- MOALF Personnel County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame BaringoN orth, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Mogotio Livestock Upgrading All Wards Sahiwals-12 County Govt Galla-30 Baringo LH Support Programme Dorper-20 AGRICULTURE SECTOR Baringo central Water harvesting for production 20,000 County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, Department Agriculture -Human resource, 1 year (Introduction of Upland rice for improved food security) Identified sites in the Sub County promotion Unit, County Government, Relevant stakeholders, Department Agriculture 2 Million Human Resource, Suitable land and climate 1 year Provision of subsidized assorted farm inputs Sub county wide Funds Pokot Provision of subsidized assorted farm inputs Sub county wide Funds Expansion of irrigation kolowa County Govt,NIB,K 2years Baringo North Environmenta l conservation Bartabwa and Barwesa wards County and other Stake holders Technical staff Provision of drought tolerant planting materials Bartabwa, Saimosoi and Barwesa wards County Dept. Agriculture Seed, transport follow up, Training materials 3 Year Mogotio Drought tolerant planting materials Kisanana, Sirwa,Mogotio, Emining County Dept. Agriculture 3Year County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame Metal silos provision Kisanana, emining, Mogotio groups County dept. of agriculture 15 silos 1 Year Provision of hermatic bags for post- harvest management SaosKibias, Perkerra, Kiplombe,Kabim o,Kabiyet and Ravine 300 HHs MoALF Improved security 60,000 Support 200 hhs to provide 4 kgs drought tolerant crop seed and 10 kgs fertilizer each. SaosKibias, Perkerra, Kiplombe, Kabimoi ,Kabiyet and Ravine 200 HHs MoALF Improved security 260,000 Establishment of 2 water pans for irrigation Esageri and saos MoALF Improved security 6,000,000 Capacity Built farmers on GAP 10,000 MoALF Improved security 2,000,000 WATER SECTOR Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo south, Baringo Central, Rehabilitatio n and expansion of existing water supplies Across all Livelihoo d zones 2000HHs Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, National RVWSB Existing structures and water resource months Whole County Water Pans De silting Wards livelihood zones 4000HH (12 No. water pans) Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Existing structures 2 3 Months Whole County Capacity development on water management sanitation livelihood zones All Wards 6000HH Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Organized groups, relevant Existing structures months County Intervention Location No. of beneficiaries Proposed Implementers Required Resources Available Resources Frame County PVC tanks 10,000 Lts for Roof Water Harvesting Institutions Wards livelihood zones Institutions Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Existing Structures months County Multi- purpose construction Mixed and Irrigated farming zones 10,000HH (6No. dams) Baringo County Government, WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National RVWSB Reliable water sources, 1 year EDUCATION SECTOR East Pokot Inclusion of Upcoming Primary schools to Additional Schools Children WFPCounty Government Increase ce and retention Baringo North HGSMPRS Barwesa, Bartabwa, Salmosoi WFPCounty Increase ce and retention Mogotio HGSMP Sirwa, Kingmoro Kisanana, Emining WFPCounty Increase ce and retention Increase of Mosquito Bartabwa School Kipcherer County Government Prevent cases 50,000 Special Latrine Construction Primary School County Government Improve students welfare and health status 50,000",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2017.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2017 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group February 2018 1 Fredrick Aloo (Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries) and 2Lydiah Wachuka (Ministry of Health) Table of contents 1.1 County background ........................................................................ Error Bookmark not defined. 3.1.1. Crop production .................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Livestock production.............................................................................................................. 8 3.2.1 Markets ................................................................................................................................ 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ..................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ............................................................................. 14 3.2.5 Food consumption ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2.6 Coping strategy .................................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ......................................................................................... 16 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage ................................................... 16 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices ................................................................................. 17 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 18 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................. 23 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................................ 23 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .............................................................................................................. 24 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 24 5.3.1 Food interventions................................................................................................................ 28 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 28 Baringo County is classified as Stressed (IPC) Phase two. The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal (IPC) Phase one, while the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone have remained in the Stressed (IPC) Phase 2. This situation is attributed to the good performance of the short rains which was characterized by timely onset, above normal rains but its cessation was untimely. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 52 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.43. The average goat prices have reduced to Ksh. 2,461 compared to the five-year average of Ksh. 2,928. Access to food is hampered by increasing maize prices and declining livestock prices. Terms of trade (ToT) are currently below normal and households are purchasing 48 Kg of maize from the sale of a goat compared to long term average (LTA) of 50Kg. Low livestock prices have contributed to low purchasing power for food commodities whose prices are high The pasture and browse condition is fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleting at a first rate in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation has been further aggravated by the infestation of fall army warm in farms which resulted in significant reduction of maize output in mixed farming, irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones by about 60 percent. Food stocks at household level have considerably declined especially in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones where 90 percent of the households depend on the markets. Conflicts have resulted in disruption and even closure of markets. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further in view of the prevailing conditions of deteriorating forage and declining amounts in water sources. Return distances between the water sources and grazing areas is 15 kilometres which is longer than the normal distance of 10 kilometres in pastoral livelihood zone, while households are currently walking a distance of about 8 kilometres compared to 4 kilometres normally thereby limiting access to domestic water sources. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is generally above the normal threshold for the last five years across the livelihoods. From the month of October 2017, the trend has been worsening and in January 2018 it stood at 18.5 percent. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level and minimal stocks within households. The trend is expected to worsen further until the onset of the long rains. There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively. This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018 as compared to 17 and 52 percent respectively in December 2017. The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of using less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 with a CSI of 20. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers (Km) with an estimated population of 555,561 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2009 census report). The County has 4 lakes (Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria and Lake Kamnarok and Lake 94) covering an approximate 165 Km. The County has six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo South. The County is divided into four livelihood zones (LZ) namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach The main objective was to analyze the impact of 2017 short rains season (October, November and December) on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 5th to 9th January 2017 using a multi-sectoral approach. All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Field observations were also undertaken during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the short rains season was in the second dekad of October which was timely. Most parts across county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, mixed farming received above- normal rainfall of between 125-200 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, some parts of pastoral all species around Nginyang in Tiaty received 50-70 percent of normal. Spatial distribution was even while temporal distribution was fair. Cessation was in the second dekad of December which is earlier. Normally rains end in the third dekad of December. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and have significantly led to reduction by about 60 percent of the normal production. The impact of fall army worm has resulted to low stock levels in households at 48 percent of the Long Term Average. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in JulyAugust. Livestock prices are below-average amid high food commodity prices. Household purchasing power has been eroded Most households about 90 percent are currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. Foot and Mouth (FMD) disease outbreak was reported in Rongai sub-county in neighbouring Nakuru County, there were suspected cases in Tirioko. Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) reported in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones of Koloa in Tiaty,Barwesa and Saimosoi in Baringo North,Salawa in Baringo Central. Cases of heart water were reported in Amaya and Churo. Figure 1: Rainfall performance in Baringo County 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability The food availability in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production, net food imports and livestock production. The 2017 short rains harvests were affected by offseason rains which impacted on the area planted as farmers had already planted, therefore the acreage for the short rains reduced. The fall army worm infestation reduced the production further. Also early cessation of the short rains and high temperatures affected crop and livestock production thus exposing households to market dependency. Conflicts such as cattle rustling resulted in market disruptions. Current food stocks available in the mixed livelihood zones are insufficient to sustain the households for the next three months and will have to rely on markets. While pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones will rely on interventions. 3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The short rains (October, November, and December) supplements the harvest from the Long rains season which is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under cultivation for maize and beans reduced by 81 percent and 66.5 percent below the Long-Term average respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 93.5 percent and 62 percent below the Long-Term average respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to the fact that most farms had crops established from the off-season rains (July-August-September. Incidences of Fall Army Worms (FAW) which was experienced across the county during the long rains of 2017 also contributed to the low establishment of maize crop under the short rains as farmers were advised not to plant maize so as to break the FAW cycle. However, in mixed farming livelihood zone of Mochongoi ward the area under Irish potatoes increased by 12 percent of the Long-Term Average, this is attributed to the good price that prevailed in the previous season. Table 1: Rain-fed (3 major crops) planted during 2017 Short rains season Long Term Average planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2017 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during Short rains season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 2. Beans 3. Finger millet 10 4.Irish Potatoes Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, tomatoes, water melons and green grams increased by 50, 10 , 47.6 and 125 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the increase was that most of the rivers and other water bodies (which form part the source for irrigation) had recharged during the long rains 2017 (April, May, June), Off-season rains (July-August) coupled by the short rains (October, November and December). The above reason also explains the consistency in production as soil moisture was adequate for production of the short season crops under irrigation (which are mainly vegetables and pulses). The area under green grams tremendously increased because farmers were contracted by Kenya Seed Company to produce green gram seed. The increase in acreage resulted in the increase in production of Tomatoes, water melons and green grams by 18.7, 41.4 and 125 percent of their normal production respectively (Table 2). However maize production reduced by 10.4 percent of the normal due to infestation of the Fall Army Worm. The area under irrigation for beans reduced by 77 percent of the long term average. Table 2: Irrigated (Major crops) planted during Short rains season Long Term Average planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2017 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Beans Tomatoes Water melons 119.6 2156.8 Kales 737.5 Green grams Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks held by households were below-average (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 48 percent of their LTA, while millet and sorghum stocks reduced by 6 and 85 percent below their LTAs respectively. Table 3 Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers Total Maize 309,429 82,011 14,297 13,270 419407 593,945 102,673 18,314 39,000 753632 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Millet Sorghum Maize stocks currently held by households in mixed farming livelihood zone are about 77 percent of the total. Households in the Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed zones do not have any stocks and are depending on traderslocal markets for purchase which mainly sourced from outside the County. Maize stocks held by traders and millers are 80 and 78 percent of the LTA for Maize while Millet stocks held by traders was 16 percent more than LTA and this was attributed to more household buying from markets for milling purposes and complementing with Maize flour, sorghum stocks held by traders were 28 percent of the LTA. 3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species kept in the county include; cattle, camels, goats, sheep, honeybees and poultry. The short rains do contribute significantly to regeneration of pasture and fodder in the county hence the importance for its utilization in rejuvenating strategic feed reserves and milk production at household in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Table 4 below shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution to Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral-all species Forage condition The forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones. The pasture condition was fair in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. In agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, the condition was fair to poor and poor respectively. The impact of the off- season and short rains, led to good regeneration of pasture in fenced areas and fair regeneration in open areas. The pastures are expected to last till the end of March. The browse condition was good to fair in both mixed and irrigated cropping zones, fair in agro- pastoral zones and fair to poor in pastoral livelihood zones. It is expected to last up-to mid- march. Factors limiting access to forage include scarce forage, limited livestock water and resource based conflict along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty, Baringo south and Tiaty, Baringo and Keiyo Marakwet, and Baringo and both Laikipia and Samburu Table 5: Pasture and Browse condition od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Mixed farming Good to One and months Good to od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Irrigated croppin Good to One and months Good to pastoral 1 month Good to Pastoral 1 month Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The improvement in livestock body condition is attributed to the cumulative effect of the off- season rains coupled with above normal short rains witnessed. Similarly, the rains slightly reduced trekking distance but the regenerated pastures are rapidly being utilized. Pastures enclosures are in good condition and therefore able to sustain the body condition in those areas as the short dry spell continues. Below is the livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. Table 6: Livestock body condition od Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Fair to Good to Good to Birth rate The birth rates were normal at three percent due to the conducive conditions created by the impact of the off-season and short rains. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 7). The Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were due to poor performance of the past previous accumulated rainfall seasons as the livestock body conditions and fertility level deteriorated. Table 7: Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Mixed faming Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Agro-pastoral pastoral Pastoral Pastoral The average translated to 2.2 in poor HH as compared to four in medium HH Milk production and consumption There was slight increase in milk production as compared to the similar season 2017. However, both milk production and consumption are below the LTA. About 30 percent of milk sold in the pastoral all species livelihood zones come from mixed farming livelihood zones. As compared to the previous season there was decrease in milk prices as shown in the table 8 below Table 8: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) Milk consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Mixed farming Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral pastoral Pastoral Pastoral Water for Livestock Introduction The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, Lakes and pans which are in Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Alabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. Lakes include Bogoria, Baringo,and Kamnarok. The water pans were recharged at 50 percent but are now drying up rapidly due to onset of dry period. The trekking distance are currently above normal ranges but are lower than the previous season Table 9. There was no change in watering frequency. Table 9: Water for livestock Liveli Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-3 1-1.5 Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-3 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-3 1-1.5 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-3 pastoral water pans, Streams, water pastoral water pans, Streams, water rivers Boreholes pans, Boreholes rivers Boreholes pans, Boreholes Pastoral Water- pans, Bore-holes pans, Bore-holes Pastoral pans, Bore-holes pans, Bore-holes Migration Livestock migrations was taking place within the county. Some of the migrations were normal in search of pastures while others near the borders were due to conflicts such as cattle rustling. The main livestock species that was migrating was cattle. The current migration trends are as shown in the table below. Table 10: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Pastoral all species and Agropastoral livelihood zone Baringo south -Nyimbei and Chebinyiny to Mochongoi -Marigat to Arabal Cattle in search of pastures and return of security Pastoral all species livelihood zones Baringo north -Sibilo and Yatya bartum -Barwessa towards Kerio River -Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Cattle in search of pastures and insecurity fears Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone (Mogotio) -Kamar and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. -Sagasagik, Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in ERavine Sub county. -Sinende, to Mochongoi in Baringo South Cattle in search of pastures Pastoral all species livelihood zone(Tiaty) -Silale- Paka hills-Akwicha tis-Nabukuti- Nadome -Chesirimion-Orus-chepkalacha- mukutani -Chemsik-Chepanta and Maron -Kolloa-Sukut- Cattle in search of pastures Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The diseases occurrence reported in the county are as indicated in the table 11 below. The diseases were in the normal ranges as there was no quarantine imposed. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Disease surveillance and vaccination were undertaken in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 11: Livestock diseases Disease Area Reported county Livestock Livestock deaths Contagious Caprine Pleuro pneumonia (CCPP) Kolowa, Ngoron, Silale, Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Akoret Tiaty Goats 35 goats Majimoto, Kamar, Kimose, Mogotio Disease Area Reported county Livestock Livestock deaths Sheep goat pox Sacho Soi location BCentral goats sheep goats 55 goats 21 sheep 25goats Kapropita Soi location BCentral Kimalel BSouth Saimo soi, Barwessa M North cattle Kamar, majimoto, Emining, Mogotio Chepnes, Torongo ERavine Silale, Ribkwo Wards Tiaty Kiptoim, Lembus Mogotio ,Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Emining Mogotio Lembus ward ERavine Rabies Heart water Mogotio, Kimose, Cheberen mogotio Cattle 90 goats Saimo soi, Barwessa BNorth Ewalel soi BSouth Heart water Sibilo BNorth goats cattle Poultry 90 goats 4,000 birds Red water Tirioko, Akoret Tiaty New Castle Disease Kabarnet and Kaptopita BCentral Livestock Mortalities Mortality rates for all the livestock species are normal at two percent across all the livelihood zones. 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets functionality particularly for households in all the livelihood zones. Currently about 90 percent of households in pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are largely dependent on markets as their main food source. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Kabel, Kipsarama, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi and Mogotio. The Agropastoral livelihood zones have markets in Emining and Kaptara, Markets in pastoral livelihood zones are in Kolloa, Loruk, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya and Kinyach. Marigat and Barwessa markets are in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. All markets are functional except for Kinyach market which has been closed due to insecurity. The main livestock available in the markets were cattle, sheep and goats. There was an influx of livestock in the main markets resulting to low livestock prices being recorded which downplay the farmers purchasing power. The main reason of influx of livestock in the markets was increased numbers for sale of livestock in order to raise secondary school fees for children. The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main agricultural commodities in the markets are Maize, beans, greengrams and horticultural crops. Most of the cereals are imported from Nakuru, Uasin gishu Trans nzoia there is also internal trade from mixed farming zones to pastoral and agropastoral zones Maize prices Maize prices were 20 percent higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) and 5 percent lower than price in January 2017. The high prices were occassioned by low supplies harvests. Prices highest in the pastoral-all species livelihooh zone agropastoral livelihood zones average of Ksh 60. Goat prices The average price of a goat increased steadily from october to December this attributed improved conditions and the festive season. However, the price decreased by 9 percent from Ksh. 2,709 in the month December 2017 to Ksh.2,461 in the month of January 2018. The prices were below the LTA by 16 percent (Figure 4) ; but above last year prices by 10 percent attributed to market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to improvement of pasture and browse. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,604 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 1,875. The prices may slightly drop as prevailing dry spell may have impact on the body condition 3.2.2 Terms of trade The Terms of trade have been on an increasing trend October December. However, they decreased to 48.1kg in January. The current ToT is slightly below the long-term average by 4 percent (Figure 5). The drop was due to decrease in the livestock prices in January. Figure 2: Maize price trends Figure 3: Goat price trends Figure 4: Terms of trade 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and crop production. Income from crop production has significantly reduced across all livelihood zones due to reduction in yield. Rainfall failure in the previous short and long rains in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones resulted in loss of livelihood assets mainly livestock. The households have now engaged in other income sources such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; water pans, springs and boreholes. The water sources were recharged at about 70 to 80 percent across all livelihoods as a result of the short rains and off some season rains during the lean season of July to Septembe. However, surface water sources are currently holding approximately 40 to 50 percent of their normal capacities as indicated in Table 12. Table 12: Status of water sources Distance to water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three major sources) No. of No. of Sources Projected Duration (Operation al Sources) Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral Holes Months months stable Kirim Nyimbei, Kapkun, Chebinyiny, Ngoron, Nasorot, Water 1 1 Months 70 - 80 Kirim, Kasiela, Endao Springs 2 - 3 Months Months 50 - 60 Agro - Pastoral Holes Months months Stable Kabirgei, Kemnyunguny Water 1 1 Months 70 - 80 Kaptombes Springs 1 1 months Mixed Farming Holes Months months Stable Seretunin, Kipkaech, Mochongoi Springs 2 2 Months 50 - 60 Rivers 2 2 Months 70 - 80 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months months 70 - 80 Shallow Wells 3months months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Months Due to below normal recharge and reduced flow rate, current distance to other water sources have increased by six to eight kilometres from the normal four to five kilometres in the pastoral zone. In the agro pastoral livelihood, distances increased from three to four kilometres normally to six to seven and in the irrigated cropping zone, from the normal half to one and half kilometres to one to two kilometres. In the mixed farming zones, the distances increased from the normal of one to two and half kilometres to two to four Kilometres. The increase has been occasioned by drying up of some open water sources and breakdown of boreholes in all livelihood zones (Table 13). Water consumption and cost Current water consumption is 12-15 litres per person per day compared to 15-20 litres per person per day in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods, 15-20 litres per person per day from 20-25 litres per person per day in the mixed farming zones normally. The Irrigated livelihood zone is at normal (20-25 litres). Cost of water has remained within the normal of Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrican at the water kiosks and boreholes in all livelihood zones Households using billed water are stressed due to high water bills. Waiting time The current waiting time varies between five to ten minutes at the boreholes as compared to the normal of three to five minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, five to seven from two to four minutes in the mixed farming zone and within the normal range of one to three in the irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase in waiting time can be attributed to high demand at those water points (Table 13). Table 13: Access to domestic water Ward livelihood Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Pastoral 4 - 5 6 8 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Pastoral 3 - 4 6 7 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 1 2.2 3 5 3 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 25 Mixed Farming 1 2.5 2 4 3 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 20 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure Figure 5: Food consumption groups 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018. In comparison to the month of January 2017 there is a significant improvement since households with poor food consumption score was recorded at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which is an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of consuming less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 when the CSI was 20. The CSI for Pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2018 is 18.4 and 15.3 respectively and CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 2.8 but an improvement in the same period in 2017 which was at 23.8, 15.6 and 4.2 respectively. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns The major morbidities from July to Dec 2017 for children less than five years are URTI, malaria, and Diarrhoea. The morbidity for this cohort increased by 15.6 compared to the same period in Jan 2017, Figure 7. This could be attributed to the off season rains and staff strike that affected treatment access. There was no epidemic from July to December 2017. However, there was an upsurge of clinical Malaria cases in Tiaty although this is not reflected in the DHIS report due to poor reporting because of insecurity and Nurses strike. The average distance to the nearest Health facility ranges from 35KM in East Pokot, to 6 Km in Baringo North. However, this was mitigated by integrated outreaches and the catch up campaign which brought services nearer to the communities 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage The fully immunized child (FIC) coverage recorded a reduction of 16.6 percent down from 66.6 percent, compared to same period in 2017 (Figure 8). The 50 percent coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent). The 16.6 percent reduction in coverage for FIC could be attributed to the problems faced by the sector including the Nurses strike, some facilities especially dispensaries closed due to staff shortage. This is despite the implementation of outreach in hard to reach area and catch up campaign. 2016 U5 2016 GP 2017 U5 2017 GP TRENDS IN MORBIDITY FOR UNDER FIVES AND GENERAL POPULATION Diarrheao Malaria Figure 6: Morbidity trends Figure 8: Immunization coverage Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children 6-11 month reduced by 29.4 percent from 70.2 percent to 40.8 percent (Figure 9), attributed to staff strike. However, there is an increase in Vitamin A supplementation for Children 12-59 by 27 percent to 56.6 percent compared to same period in 2016. The coverage is below the national target (80 percent). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central,Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties respectively. Despite reduced immunization coverage the childhood morbidity remained normal as same period 2017 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices 3.3.3.1 Food consumption Patterns Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, maize meal, and porridge in the Pastoral livelihood zones, also 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas with cows milk as early as two weeks, which explains low EBF rates of 36 percent which is below national target of 80 percent. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months in these livelihoods. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 12-15 litres and 15-20 litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub-county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.3.2 Nutrition status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition was stable from October to December (13 percent); attributed accelerated intervention in October and November. However, it increased to 18 percent in January 2018 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 10). Reports CHANIS (Underweight) currently range from Figure 9: Vitamin A coverage trends in Baringo Figure 10: Children at risk of malnutrition 6.7 percent in July 2017 to 9.0 percent in Dec 2017 among children less than five years for the county. East Pokot, all pastoral livelihood zone reported the high levels of vulnerability compared other livelihood zones across all sectors thus SMART survey carried out in July 2017 indicated critical nutrition status with GAM levels of 25 percent (Figure 11). The proportion admitted in the SFP and OTP programmes remained above LTA with disruptions in documentations due to health worker strikes, insecurity and mass screening (Figure 12). Malnutrition Screening, OTP and ITP admissions trends. The December 2017 East Pokot sub-county Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) survey found estimated coverage of 45.9 percent and SFP coverage of 29.7 percent. below recommended SPHERE standards of 50 percent for rural areas. This was attributed to stock outs, long distances, migration and poor motivation of CHVs involved in screening and referrals. Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate till onset of long rains in marginal mixed livelihood of Marigat, Mogotio but likely to be stable or improve in East Pokot where blanket SFP and facility based SFP interventions are ongoing. Most households across all livelihoods have foods stocks likely to last one month attributed to low harvests and will be relying on markets for food access compared to same period in Jan 2017. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid and amoeba have been reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage Number of new admissions Month LTM (5-yr average) Figure 11: Malnutrition trends Figure 12: Trends in OTP admissions Figure 13: Latrine coverage TOILET COVERAGE PER LIVELIHOOD pastoral agro pastoral irrigated crop mixed farming is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households in the Pastoral zone use bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Prolonged storage is mainly practiced enabling sedimentation. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, Jan 2018 Maize stocks households (mixed farming) Livestock body condition Poor for cattle, Fair to good for the rest Good for all livestock species in Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Good to fair for cattle and sheep in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones For goats good in agropastoral but good to fair in pastoral all species livelihood zones Water consumption (litres per person per day) Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Pastoral-all species: 12-15 Agro-pastoral: 12-15 Mixed farming: 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping: 20 -25 Price of maize (Ksh. per kg) Average Ksh. 52kg (Pastoral Agro-p: 60, Mixed Irrigated: Ksh 30-35Kg Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) Terms of trade (number of kilograms purchased from the proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index Mean CSI 20 Mean CSI: 15.74 (Jan) Pastoral:18.4, Agro-pastoral: 15.3, Irrigated zone: 2.8 consumption score (percent) (Jan 2017) Poor 19 Borderline 32 Acceptable 49 Jan 2018 poor:18 Borderline:20 Acceptable:61 3.5 Education Access Generally there was an increase in ECD enrolment by 3.4 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2017. The ratio of boys to girls at ECD level is 1 to 1. Primary school enrolment declined by 1.6 percent in Term lll 2017 compared to Term l 2018. This is due the implementation of Teacher Performance Appraisal Development Performance contracting Teacher Management Information System. (TPADPCTMIS Implementation of Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE) had an effect on a higher rate transition from primary to secondary level. In Term lll 2017 enrolment in secondary schools for boys and girls increased by 8.3 and 14.2 percent respectively, compared Term 1 2018 Table 14. East Pokot had the lowest enrollment of secondary school students with a total of 1,356 boys and 830 girls in Term l 2018. However, there was an increase compared to Term lll 2017 with a proportion of 7.6 percent for both boys and girls. Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term III 2017 Term I 2018 (includes new students registered and drop- outs since Term III 2017) Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total 70,471 Primary Secondary Participation The ECDE attendance average in Term lll 2017 for boys and girls was 35,216 and 34,334 respectively. The average attendance for boys and girls in primary was 76,206 and 71,716 respectively. For secondary school the average attendance for boys was 19,932 and girls was 18,864. It there means that absenteeism was minimal at all levels of learning. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2017 Term I 2018 Indicator September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 January 2018 School attendance Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Primary Secondary Retention In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3 percent in Term II 2017 to 7 at the end of Term III 2017 while in primary the rate increased from 4 to 9 percent over the same period. For males, the rate decreased from 5, to 0.2 percent as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, migration of families to water points In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurityviolence, family labor responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. In secondary school the dropout rate decreased by 2.2 percent for boys. However, there was no drop out for girl. Instead there was an increase in enrolment in the proportion girls by 7.6 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2107. The reason of dropout for girls was due early marriages, pregnancies and lack of school fees, for boys it was caused by family labour, lack of school fees and boda boda business. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term II 2017 End of Term III 2017 Students dropped out from school Boys Girls Boys Girls Primary Secondary School meals program The County benefits from HGSMP funded by the MOE and WFP that benefits 337 primary schools from Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North, Marigat and Tiaty (still under RSMP) as shown in Table 18. Expanded school meals programme was distributed in Baringo North Sub County to caution the drought that affected schools that were not under HGSMP. It benefitted a total of 13,943 pupils of which 7,148 were boys and 6,795 were girls. Table 18: School meals programme Name of sub- county of schools feeding Other feeding programmes Boys Girls Boys Girls Mogotio 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 5,315 4,876 Tiaty 1,292 Marigat 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 5,315 4,876 Challenges facing school meals programme is shortage of water in schools hence lack of water for cooking the food, delays in food distribution and insecurity. The ECD are not covered in the national school meals program and allocated food by national government has to be shared by ECDs hence leading to faster depletion. Approximately 20 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Inter-sector links The county government is encouraging enrolment of pupils across all ethnic communities within the region and promoting cohesion and peace-building in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. The ministry of health carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. Pupils were also provided with water treatment tablets in schools. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with average to above average amounts and is the main season of the county. Livestock prices are likely to slightly deteriorate through to MarchApril owing to declining forage availability. The livestock body condition especially cattle is likely to deteriorate further Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for February to April The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average since there will be increase of volume of animals in the markets with a relatively poor body condition 4.3 Food security outcomes for May to July The onset of the long rains season is projected to be in MarchApril and will result in regeneration of forage and high recharge of water sources. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones the livestock production aspects are likely to improve in terms of body condition and milk production increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes. Nutrition status is likely to improve with most households consuming more than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to stabilize. Proportion of households Koibatek with poor food consumption is expected to reduce with households consuming more food groups. Coping strategy Index will improve with households applying fewer consumption based strategies with less frequency. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase in the pastoral, agro pastoral and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. The pans are drying at fast rate due to siltation and high temperatures. Urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that the pans dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need for provision of water in schools and dispensaries mainly in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Currently water trucking is being undertaken in schools in the pastoral livelihood zones in Tiaty. Support to provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Most affected parts is in pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty. Provision of farm inputs in Agro-Pastoral, irrigated and mixed farming in preparation for the long rains. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers in the County this season include, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 125- 200 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the mixed farming livelihood zones characterized by even temporal distribution and an early cessation. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture is on an increasing trend. Forage condition is deteriorating in the agro pastoral and all pastoral livelihoods zones livestock resulting in migration within the county hence reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than- normal livestock prices reducing pastoralists terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households vulnerability in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the off season rains just before the onset of the short rains. Except for the pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty which reported poor Food Consumption score. All the other sub counties had acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to increased dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years has been recorded in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. This could largely be attributed to the poor child care practices and reduced milk availability in the households. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county security rank (1- Main food security threat (if any) Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (2) East Pokot Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, Harsh climatical conditions, High malnutrition rate Mogotio Poor pasture condition, Human wild life conflict, livestock disease, High temperatures, fall army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, poor water quality Baringo North Fair -Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, High temperatures, fall army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources Baringo South Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict, fall army warm, increased water distances, poor water quality Marigat Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo Central Deteriorating of pasture, fall army worm, increasing distances to water sources. Eldama Ravine Infestation of fall army worm, reducing water levels. 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions Intervention Objective Location Activity Target No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Agriculture Immediate Interventions Creation of productive assets by households Increased food production at household level, reduced poverty levels and conserved environment in ASAL areas Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Capacity building of staff on control 2.3 M 5,000 National Government and County Government of Baringo, Development partners Supply of inputs(Maize , Beans, green grams, fertilizer Chicks, Pasture Create resilience to communities affected drought insecurity Barwessa, Bartabwa Capacity building on types variety 100 M 5,000 National Government County Government of Baringo On farm- irrigation systems -support for newly established irrigation schemes(purchas e of seeds ,fertilizers and chemicals to support farmer groups in irrigation schemes) Increased productivity and increased security Mogotio, Lembus Perkerra Increase acreage under irrigation Promote appropriate water harvesting technologies Baringo County Government- Agriculture Fertility management Increased productivity and increased security Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Collect soil samples and conduct analysis 0.5 M Baringo County Government- Agriculture Nutrition Food Utilization Increased household food nutrition Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Capacity building LMIS and Maternal Infant Young Child Nutrition 3,000 Baringo County Government- Agriculture Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Livestock Sector Immediate Disease control(vaccinati against FMD, CCPP, LSD,SGP, Reduced incidences livestock diseases leading improved livestock body condition Mogotio, Baringo North Routine vaccination Participator disease Surveillance 15,521 cattle 58,077 shoats Dec-feb MOALF, Feeds provision; Hay and Range cubes Increase chances livestock survival during drought period Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty Procurement purchase of feeds 20,000 Livest ock(T Dec,201 7-Feb, MOALF, Disease surveillance Ensure proper monitoring disease incidences proper control Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Eldama Ravine Baringo Central Routine disease monitoring 50,000 TLUs March BCG(MOAL Medium and Long Term ongoing interventions Provision pasture seeds BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio Procurement appropriate pasture seeds Capacity building on pasture production management 2018- MOALF(BL RPLRP NDMA(EU) Partners Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Health Sector Immediate Vitamin A Supplementation Improved child immunity Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Undertake vaccination 0.38M MOH, WVK Supplementation Reduce severity of Diarrhoea Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Integrated management of childhood illnesses Health Services Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) Safe life And prevent under nutrition Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty promotion , Community initiatives WVKUNICE F and WPP Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women Reduced child morbidity and mortality Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Build capacity for health care MOH, WVK workers and Deworming Increase food intake and utilization Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty Routine and School based deworming MOH, WVK East Pokot Sub County SMART Survey Targerting to increase coverage Ksh1,2 29,550 Pokot Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Water Sector Immediate Water trucking Reduced distances in accessing water. Institutions Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Targeting to increase coverage Institut going BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Borehole rehabilitation Increase in access to safe water Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Procurement of spare parts Routine maintenance 200HH going BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Capacity building on water management Increased knowledge on safe water. Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio Trainings on water management 2 Sub countie going RCS, WV, UNCEF Intervention Impacts in terms of food security Location No. of ciaries Frame Proposed Medium and long term ongoing interventions Construction of new water projects Reduced distances in accessing water. counties Tendering procurement 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Rehabilitation, drilling and equipping of boreholes Increase in access to safe water counties Siting, Procurment, installation 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Increased knowledge on safe water. counties Conduct water resouse management Planting of trees 1year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-County Population Projected Population Pop in need ( range min max ) Proposed mode of intervention East Pokot (Tiaty) 133,189 15-20 Baringo North 93,789 10-15 Mogotio 48,129 10-15 Baringo South 84,256 10-15 Baringo Central 78,095 Koibatek 118,113 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Livestock counties Emergency Livestock off- Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo South Mogotio 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. Govt.(KMC) Feb-April, counties Disease control(vaccin ations against FMD,LSD Blue Tongue) Mogotio, Marigat(Blue tongue) areas(FMD) Countywid National government and Development partners Feb-Mar, counties Provision pasture seeds BaringoNorth -Tiaty -Baringo South MOALF(BLRP) RPLRP NDMA(EU) Mar-June County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Mogotio Partners Agriculture Immediate Counties Inputs provision including capacity building post-harvest and safe use of chemicals Eldama Ravine MOALF, PPSD, BLRSP, Staff 2018-2019 Education Sector Immediate interventions Tiaty Feeding of children All wards 10,059 BCG,UNICEF, KRCS,WFP 10.6M 2018-2019 Marigat Supply of smp 446 schools Marigat ward and lower parts of Mochongoi BCG,GOK, NGOS,Partners, 2018-2019 Provosion of safe guard water purifyers Mukutani,Ma rigat ,ilchamus wards Unicef 2018-2019 Feeding of ECD children All wards in Marigat sub- county BCG,PARTNERS,P ARENTS 2018-2019 Baringo Central Establishment of community Smp in 94 schools Tenges,Salaw a and Sacho wards 19,666 GOK,BCG,WVK, parents 2018-2019 centres to access meals All ECD Centres in the sub-county 5083 UNICEF,BOM,Pare 2018-2020 Improve of IGAILA in Kabarnet Deaf Blind schools Kabarnet BOM,BCG,GOK and Partners On going County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame Health Sector All Sub counties Rapid Assessment Baringo County 94,000 MOHNDMAWV KKRCUNICEF 300,00 Feb 2018 All Sub counties Intensify screening and referrals 150 Health facilities in the Count all the 6 sub- counties 94,000 MOHWV and WFPKRCUNICEF 0.846M February All Sub counties Provision of Nutrition supplements 150 facilities in the County 7,362 MOHWVKKRC February All Sub counties Integrated outreach services 45 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties 96,850 MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 1,873,250 267,60 FebruaryM All Sub counties SMART Survey County wide 654,000 MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 340,00 June 2018 All Sub counties Provision of water treatment chemicals County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF 0.25M March 2018 All Sub counties Scale up County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF BBCMA March All Sub counties Scale up IMAM Surge County wide MOH WVK KRCUNICEF BBCMA April 2018 All Sub counties Initiate Infant and young child feeding in emergency County wide MOH KRC UNICEF 750,00 March East Pokot East Pokot WFPWVK MOH 123,130,00 March Water Immediate All Sub counties Fuel Subsidy Electricity subsidy Community 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Implementers Required Resources Frame All Sub counties Rehabilitation Servicing of pumping units Community 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Roof Water harvesting structures Institutions Communities 60 Inst. BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Water Bowzer servicing and repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision County wide 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months All Sub counties Capacity building on WASH Water Management Catchment protection County wide 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1- 3 months Medium and Long Term Interventions All Sub counties Drilling and Equipping of strategic BHs County wide ( 7 Boreholes 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs All Sub counties Construction Rehabilitation of potential water supplies County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, WFP 1 5 yrs All Sub counties Construction of 4 dams for domestic and irrigation water use County wide 5,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 -5Yrs All Sub counties De-silting and Construction of major water pans County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5Yrs All Sub counties Capacity building on County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, WFP 5MStaff 1 - 5Yrs",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group February, 2019 Esther Barasa (National Drought Management Authority) and Baringo County Steering Group INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 County Background .............................................................................................. 1 Methodology and Approach ................................................................................. 1 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ............. 1 Rainfall Performance ............................................................................................ 1 InsecurityConflict ................................................................................................ 2 Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................. 2 Availability ............................................................................................................ 2 Access .................................................................................................................... 7 Utilization ............................................................................................................ 11 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ............................................................ 13 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES ...................................................................................... 14 Education............................................................................................................. 14 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ............................................................................ 15 Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 15 Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 ................................................. 15 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS ............................................................. 16 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 16 6.2: Ongoing Interventions ........................................................................................... 17 6.3:Recommended Interventions .................................................................................. 21 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention ........................................................................ 21 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions ....................................................... 21 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG) in conjunction with partner organisations. The 2018 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 11th-22nd February 2019. The overall objective of this assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally. There was uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution. The caseation was earlier than normal; the poor performance of the rains led to decrease in the acreage for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. It also led to increase in trekking distances to water sources. Forage was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping, fair to poor in the agro- pastoral and poor in pastoral livelihood Zones. Livestock body condition was good to fair in the county. Milk production at household level was below the Long Term Mean across all livelihoods this was attributed to increasing distances in search of water and pasture. Milk consumption was stable in the county with exception of Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones which had low milk consumption due to low production and high prices. Livestock prices were above the long term average while food commodity prices are below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are favourable at 80 percent above the long term average. The current maize stocks are 18 percent above the long term average. Proportion of households in acceptable Food Consumption category was 80 percent. This was attributed to availability of food at household level and markets. Reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone were employing consumption based coping strategies more frequently compared to other livelihood zones. The proportion of children below five years who were at risk of malnutrition was within the normal range. The indicative food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase Figure 2: Rainfall performance 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. County covers approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projected Population). Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively as shown in Figure 1. 1.2. Methodology and Approach A technical multi-sectoral and multi-agency working group comprised of government technical experts from water, livestock, agriculture, Health and nutrition and education sectors in county, NDMA and partners was formed by the CSG to analyse the food security situation for evidence-based decision support. The team, led by KFSSG, reviewed existing secondary data (including sectoral reports, NDMA bulletins, Knowledge Attitudes Believes and Practices survey reports), to establish the current food security situation and determine the trends. The team then conducted transect drives across the livelihood zones to assess the field situation through visual inspection techniques, interviewed Key informants and conducted household interviews. The qualitative data explained the changes in household food security during the season. The technical team analysed the available evidence in a transparent and consensus-building manner, and presented a preliminary report which was discussed and adopted by the CSG during a special meeting held on 22nd February 2019. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance The onset of the 2018 October to December was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally.. However, progression of rains throughout the season was poor in all livelihood zones. Substantial rainfall amounts were only received during the second dekad of October and Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Cropping first dekad of December. Spatial distribution was equally uneven. Cumulative seasonal totals were 90-140 percent of normal in the northern pastoral areas of Tiaty, Baringo South and pockets in Baringo North. The rest of the county received 51-90 percent of average rainfall. Rainfall cessation was late in the third of December compared to first dekad normally 2.2. InsecurityConflict Incidences of insecurity were reported in Arabal in Baringo South that resulted in loss of lives. The situation led to burning of a grazing zone in the area. There is a high tendency of collapse of markets along borders of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South as well as displacement of persons especially in Mukutani ward. Tensions have been reported along the borders of Saimo soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North thereby leading to limited access to forage in those areas. Other Shocks and Hazards Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. However, the Baringo County government is carrying out vaccinations campaigns currently. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed crop production is mainly done during the March to May long rains and contributes 85 percent to food. Crop production during the October to December sort rains contributes 15 percent to food. The main food crops grown in the County include maize, beans, millet, Irish potatoes, cow peas and sorghum. Other crops are grown are coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Crop production is mainly practised in the agro-pastoral, Irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihoods. Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in both the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. Maize crop contributes 63 and 21 percent to food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Maize is grown for commercial purposes in the irrigated zones contributing 26 percent to cash incomes. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under maize and bean crop production was 90 and 85 percent below the five- year average. Farmers were advised by the Ministry of Agriculture to observe a closed season during the short rains to break the Fall Armyworm lifecycle. In addition, the delayed cessation of the 2018 March to May long rains affected the harvesting of the long rains crop and land preparation for the short rains season. As a result, maize and bean production dropped by 93 and 86 percent of the long term average (LTA). The area under Irish potatoes was eight percent above the LTA especially in Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. However, production was 23 percent below the LTA due to the poor performance of the short rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Area planted during 2018 Short rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2018 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) Tons Long Term Average (5 year) production during the short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons Maize 9,150 Beans 1,992 14,421 Irish Potatoes 1,308 1,212 13,080 16,932 Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize, watermelons and tomatoes. Irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 16 percent compared to the short term average (STA). The production of maize was below STA because most of the crop was affected by lack of adequate water especially during tussling. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and watermelons by 39 and 41 percent of the STA respectively. The high temperatures and high evaporation rates negatively affected the water quantities available for irrigation. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Area planted during 2018 Short rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2018 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by farmers and millers were 24 and 29 percent of the LTA while traders held stocks 22 percent below LTA. Maize stocks held by farmers include spill over stocks from the above average 2018 long rains harvests. In spite of the county having above average maize stocks, majority of the stocks are held by commercial farmers in Eldama Ravine. The rice stocks held by traders were below the LTA by 33 percent. Current millet stocks held by the farmers and Traders were above the LTA by 874 and 486 percent respectively. Generally the County had maize stocks above the long term average and this was attributed to favourable long rains, poor maize prices thus farmers did not sell their produce and minimal carry-over stocks from the 2018 long rains. The Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones have nil to minimum stocks and are depending on markets for their supplies. Traders are having below their long time average as most of them have maize stocks which are not moving as households have maize and they are not selling especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Farmers are mostly likely to dispose of their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline drastically in the next three months. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the other harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sell their produce within two months. Table 3: Commodity Stocks Commodity Maize Sorghum Millet Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 736,130 593,945 1,463 24,780 2,544 Traders 80,344 102,373 1,640 2,465 3,108 Millers 26,432 20,444 3.1.3. Livestock Production Livestock production contributes 88 and 50 percent to cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. The main livestock species reared are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The county government has also been promoting rabbit farming. Livestock is usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, livestock are released to the fields and later return to the homesteads themselves in the afternoon. The short rains are important in pasture and browse regeneration after the long lean season of July to September. Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which is normal at this time. However, they were fair to poor in the agro- pastoral livelihood compared to good to fair normally. Pastures in the pastoral livelihood were poor compared to good to fair conditions normally. Pastures are expected to last for 1-2 months in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods compared to three months normally. Access to pastures in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones has been limited by insecurity especially in Chemoe, Natan and Arabal. Approximately 50 hectares of pasture were burnt during the recent skirmishes which was grazing zone for livestock from pastoral and agro pastoral Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Good to Irrigated cropping Good to pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Good to Insecuri tensions Good to Insecurit tensions Livestock Body Condition The livestock body conditions were stable in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones but were good to fair in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone. The body conditions were normal for this time of the year. Livestock body conditions in the pastoral livelihood have deteriorated to fair to poor conditions, compared to good conditions normally, due to declines in pastures and limited access due to insecurity. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Good Agro-pastoral Good to Good to Pastoral Fair to Good to Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs The average tropical livestock unit is 3 for the poor income household and 4.9 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, the current TLUs are within the normal seasonal ranges. This is attributed to good conception during long and off- season rainfalls. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Birth Rates Birth rates were average in all livelihood zones following average conception rates during the above average March to May long rains. The deviations in birth rates across livelihoods were as a result of levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest birth rates being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk Production and Consumption Milk production was below the long-term average in all livelihood zones following a decline in pasture and water resources. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping zones, milk production declined to five litres per household per day compared to eight litres normally. Milk production decreased to one and two bottles in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods compared to two and four litres normally. Milk consumption has decreased mainly due to a reduction in production. Average consumption was one to two litres per household per day compared to 2 litres across in all livelihood zones. Reduced milk availability led to an increase in prices in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Prices in these areas ranged between Kshs. 75-90 per litre compared to Kshs 60 normally. Table 7: Milk Production and Consumption Water Availability and Access The critical water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, rivers, streams, springs and lakes (Bogoria, Baringo and Kamnarok) similar to normal times. The recharge of open water sources was 30-40 percent during the October to December short rains. Continued use and high evaporation rates due to above average diurnal temperatures significantly reduced quantities of water held in these sources. As a result, livestock trekking distances to watering points from grazing areas has increased by 85 percent in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Similarly, livestock watering frequency in these livelihood zones has decreased from once daily to four times a week. Table 8: Water availability and Access Livelihoo d zone Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes Streams Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes months 3 months Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore-holes months 2 months Livestock Migration Depletion of pastures in the wet season grazing areas have led to migration of livestock, mainly cattle, to dry season grazing areas. Cattle from Saimoi and Soi in Baringo North, and from Tiaty have migrated to Silale, Paka, Mallaso and Korossi hills. Migration at this time of the year is typical. Migration into neighbouring counties is likely to start, which may led to conflicts especially at Kasarani. Livelihood zone Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk Consumption (Litres)Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed farming 50-60 Irrigated cropping 50-60 Agro-pastoral Pastoral Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases reported in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia (CCPP), Peaste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). Prevalence of the diseases was within normal levels. Equally, disease related mortalities were within normal ranges. An outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Mochongoi ward was reported in Baringo South. Mass vaccinations and treatment by the veterinary department of the Baringo County government are ongoing currently. The department is also planning to carry out PPR and FMD vaccinations along the stock routes. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep. Food commodity markets in the county are Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodities traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock; this led to better livestock prices. 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price Currently a kilogram of maize was below the long term average and long rains by 22 and 14 percent respectively. the prices are 31 percent lower as compared to a similar period in 2018.The low prices were attributed to cheap prices of the commodity from the neighbouring counties. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 30 per kilogram. The low prices recorded irrigated livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the stocks at household levels and local traders. The trend of maize price has been stable since September 2018 as shown in figure 3. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones most farmers are purchasing from traders Figure 2: Trends in maize prices Figure 5:Trends in Terms of Trade Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (Ksh.) Average (2014-2018) Figure 4: Trends in goat prices Goat Prices The price medium sized goat decreased by six percent in comparison to 2018 Long Rains. The current price is above the long term mean by 12 percent. The t prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,900 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 400. The trend is attributed to good market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to availability of browse. The prices are likely to decline if the dry period continues. 3.2.3. Terms of Trade The terms of trade wee above the long term mean by The terms of trade reduced from 79 during the month of December to 78 in January. The current TOT is above the long-term average by 80 percent. The favourable terms of trade were due to better livestock prices and low food prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest at 105.5 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 69.5. The terms are better as compared to a similar period last year. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones; contributing 88 and 50 percent of cash income respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percent respectively. Other sources of income are food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Incomes Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all species Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Cropping Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash Crop Production Fishing Casual Waged Labour Small Business 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for domestic use were Traditional River Wells, rivers, pans and dams, lakes, boreholes springs and Shallow wells across all livelihoods. The recharge of the majority of surface water sources was 30-50 percent in all livelihood zones due to the below average short rains. Currently open surface water sources are about 20 30 percent of normal capacity due to poor recharge during the short rains. Although majority of boreholes are functioning optimally, Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei, Yatya, Kipsaraman, Mogotio, salawa, maji moto and kisanana boreholes have broken down due to electromechanical break downs and poor management. The status of water levels in small dams and boreholes in mixed farming livelihood zones is stable while shallow wells, springs and rivers is poor in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 70 80 percent water pans in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones have dried up due to high temperatures. Generally the available surface water sources across all livelihood Zones is expected to last between one to one and half months except for Bore holes areas experiencing discharges as result of over- exploitation of water and is expected to last over 6 months Table 10: Main Sources of Water Ward Livelih Water Source (Three (3) major sources) No. of Normal Operatio No. of Current Operati Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Months months stable Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei 2.Water 1 1.5 Months 15 - 25 Nginyang, Chesirimion, Silale , Loyamarok, Tuwo 3.Lake Baringo Stable stable Agro - Holes Months months stable Yatya, Kipsaraman Water 1 1.5 Months 15 - 25 3. Springs Mixed Farmin Holes Months months stable Mogotio, salawa, moto, kisanana 2. Springs 3.Rivers 1 1.5 Months 10 - 20 Irrigate Croppi 1. Rivers months months 10 - 20 2.Shallow 1 2 months Reducing Figure 3: Water Sources Figure 4. Food Consumption Score Distance to Water Sources The distances to water sources have increased by 125,100 55,67 and 40 percent in the Agro- pastoral, Pastoral, Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively as compared to normal distances. The average distances to domestic water sources were above normal at 7-9 kilometres in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 3-4 kilometres while the distances were above normal at an average of 1 3 kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase was a result of to the prevailing high temperatures and poor performance of the short rains. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20 which also depended on the distances covered. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 1520 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 12-15 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 5-10 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was on average 3 - 5minutes. However, there were extremes of waiting time at Logumgum, Naudo, Riongo, Loyeya, Kadogoi, Chepturu, chemoinoi, bekibon for over 2 hours. Table 1: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for domestic use (Kms) Cost of water (KES) Waiting time at water source (minutes) Average HH use (litrespersonday) Projecte duration of water (months Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 - 15 1-1 .5 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 5 3 - 5 5- 10 15 20 12- 15 1-1.5 Mixed Farming 0.5 2.5 2 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 - 20 2 - 3 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 - 25 3.2.5. Food Consumption There has been an improvement in consumption scores; majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last Wells months Discharge Figure 5. Morbidity Mortality Patterns year as shown in the figure above. According to the drought early warning bulletin, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 3 percent 17 percent and 80 percent of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.6. Coping Strategy The reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.8 followed by Pastoral at 14.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones employed coping strategies such as reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat, reduced the portion size of meals; reduced number of meals per day; friends or relatives; and relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, among under-fives were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Diarrhoea and malaria, as shown in the figure 8. The cases reported in January 2019 were less compared to a similar period the previous year. Upper Respiratory Tract Infections cases were highest at 3008 while malaria cases were least at 156. There has been a declining trend compared to 2017. But there was an increase in diarrhoeal cases among children under the age of five. Figure 8 : Coping strategy Index Figure 6. Morbidity Trends for the General Population Morbidity Trends for the General Population Highest numbers of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) were reported in Baringo North Sub County in January 2019 as compared to other sub counties. Malaria cases were highest in Baringo south. Generally there is an increase of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria cases and a decline in diarrhoeal cases in 2018 as compared to the same period in 2017 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization coverage increased from 53 to 78 between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for Fully Immunized Child was due to an increase in integrated outreaches and an increment of the cold-chain equipment. The implementation of outreaches and result based financing program, including support from Anya Uzi and other partners, also contributed to the improved immunisation coverage. Vitamin A supplementation of children between 12-59 months increased from 67.6 percent to 77.7 percent between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in Vitamin A coverage resulted from Malezi Bora activities in ECDE centres, community health units and baby friendly community initiatives (BFCI) 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity According to January 2019 sentinel data from NDMA, 13 percent of children under the age of five years were at risk of malnutrition (MUAC135mm). proportion of those at risk was 19 percent below the five-year average and five percent below 2018. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is four while adults have three meals a day which is normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is one meals a day as compared to four and three meals normally. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene According to county ministry of health and sanitation; the county current total latrine coverage July to December 2018 was about 44 percent East Pokot being lowest with 3.2. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate watering point for livestock and humans. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistent water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. During current transect drive, In pastoral set up, not all schools have latrines an example is Tuo with a population of 89 pupils.in most communities, 90 of household have no access to toilets facilities. Hand washing is done in 2 critical times (Before and after eating as opposed to the recommended 4 critical times) agro pastoral and mixed set up, 70 households have and use latrines and Hand washing at three critical time 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 11: Food Security Trends in Baringo County Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, February 2019 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition Good for all livestock species across all livelihood zones Mixed Farming Good Irrigated Cropping- Good Ago Pastoral Good to Fair Pastoral Fair to Poor Water consumption (litres per person per Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 20-25pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Irrigated: 25-30 Agro-pastoral: 12-15pd Pastoral: 12-55pd Mixed Farming: 15-20pd Irrigated: 20-25pd Price of maize (per Distance to grazing Mixed farming: 1 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Pastoral: 5-6 Mixed farming:1 -4 Irrigated: 1-4 Agro-pastoral: 4-13 Pastoral: 4-13 Enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Enrolment stable comparison to the previous term. Enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Coping strategy index Mean: 14.1 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Mean: 13.51 Agro-pastoral 18.8 Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, February 2019 Pastoral 14.2 Irrigated: 3.2 Pastoral 14.7 Irrigated: 2.6 consumption score Poor: 1.1 Borderline: 8.0 Acceptable: 90.8 Poor: 3 Borderline: 17 Acceptable:80 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education 4.1.1: Access (Enrolment) Early childhood development and education centres (ECDE) enrolment in Term 3 of 2018 was 27,139 boys, 25,498 girls totalling to 52,635. Term I (2019) the enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Within the county (Table 12). The increase was majorly attributed to county government employment of teachers and provision of infrastructure. Primary schools in the county enrolled 78512 boys and 72966 girls which was marginal increase as compared to third term 2018. On average, the increase was prompted by the free primary education policy and none repetition in all classes and availability of food in schools. It was noted in Tiaty that the ratio of enrolment of school going age children was at a low percentage compared to those at home. This was due to retrogressive cultural practices and mode of livelihood. Secondary schools in the county recorded an increase of 10.13 boys and 7.62 girls from last year term 111 enrolment. This enrolment increased in Term I (2019) compared to Term 11I (2018) due to100 government transition policy in all secondary schools, establishment of day secondary schools and KCPE entry marks lowered. Table12: Enrolment Term I11 2018 Term I 2019 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 27,139 25,498 52,637 27,410 25,546 52,956 Primary 77,328 72,201 149,529 78,512 72,966 151,479 Secondary 21,858 21,041 42,899 24,322 22,776 47,098 4.1.2: Participation (Attendance) There was stability in attendance of pupils in ECD centres due to availability of extended surplus of Regular Meals Program in Tiaty Sub County however this might be hindered by water shortage experienced in most schools. Instability in attendance was reported in Baringo south due to delayed disbursement of school meals program funds from Government of Kenya to primary schools, since the beginning of the term to date. ECDE centres are currently relaying on primary schools for meals because they have not yet received funds for meals from the county government of Baringo. Other factors include long walking distance and severe heat. Primary school attendance is stable but will be interfered by water shortage, leading closure of some schools in Tiaty. Secondary school attendance is stable with exemption of Tiaty due to few and far away schools as well as their retrogressive cultural practices. 4.1.3: Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from both primary and secondary school is normally associated with early pregnancies, household chores and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand in primary and secondary schools drop out and household do not value education. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres was due to long trekking distances and severe heat, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay of funds to primary schools). 4.1.4: School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 38,172 boys and 34,660 girls are under the Home- Grown School Meals Program (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) through the ministry of education. Some 40,340 boys and 38,306 girls are not on any school meals program as they are considered to be in food secure areas. The Ministry of Education had not disbursed the funds to schools by February as it has done in the previous years.AS a result, school attendance is likely to be low from March 2019. Parent Association have an organized meals program in all day secondary schools. Table 13: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP No. of Schools Girls Totals Koibatek Mogotio 10,602 10,508 21,110 B North 7,030 6,740 13,770 BCentral 3,210 3,140 6,350 Marigat 6,530 6,390 12,920 Tiaty 10,800 7,810 18,610 Total 38,172 34,660 72,832 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), there is a 40 percent likelihood of average to above average 2019 March to May long rains in the county with a normal onset. There is also a 40 percent likelihood of below average land surface temperatures. According to FEWSNET March to May, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically to be above normal through with the onset of the long rains. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, maize prices are expected to remain below the 2018 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected above normal long rains. 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 The food security situation in the county is expected to improve across all the livelihood zones with the anticipated above normal long rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk and food at household level No food security related mortalities are expected between March and May2019. Given the on-going interventions, the phase classification is likely to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with the exception of East Pokot (Tiaty) which will remain in IPC phase 2. 5.2: Food Security Outlook for June to August, 2019 Food security situation over the period June to August, is projected to remain stable. The rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the above norma long rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to improve. Minimal food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from borderline food consumption score to acceptable food consumption score due to availability of stocks and increased milk at household level. Households are not expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due increased milk production and consumption. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain at minimal (IPC Phase 1). 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1. Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The situation has worsened as compared to the long rains assessment in July where the county was classified at minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). 6.1.2: Summary of Findings The 2018 October to December short rains received were below normal and did not support pasture establishment. . Recharge of water sources especially open sources, water access, livestock productivity, Acreage under rain-fed reduced drastically by 90 percent and that under irrigated for seed maize increased by 16 percent. The available stocks are above the Long Term Average. The Goat prices are above the Long term mean by 12 percent. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 78 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat which is 80 percent above the long term average. Livestock body condition was good to fair and good in the Pastoral and agro pastoral and Mixed farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones respectively Trekking distances are above normal seasonal ranges in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones. . Markets operations are normal across all livelihood zones There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last year. 80 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, 17 percent having borderline and three percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index was 13.5 for the county a decrease as compared to similar period last year at 15.7. The proportion of under-five at risk of malnutrition was 13 percent; the proportion is below the long term average of 16 percent 6.1.3: Sub-County Ranking Table 2: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking (1Most food insecure, 4Least food insecure) Current main food security threats Tiaty Inadequate water Water quality challenges, High risk of malnutrition , Livestock diseases Resource conflicts, Insecurity ,Depleted forage, Baringo South Livestock diseases (FMD), Inadequate water Water quality challenges, insecurity due to in migrations, malnutrition (Kampi Turkana) Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Baringo North Inadequate water water quality challenges, livestock diseases, boundary Insecurity, depleted forage, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Mogotio Inadequate water Water quality challenges, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B(Maji Moto), Depleted forage Baringo Central Depleted forage, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. Eldama Ravine Depleted pasture, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. 6.2: Ongoing Interventions 6.2.1: Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 72832 pupils in 336 primary schools as follows 67, 71, 34,49 and 115 schools in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South Marigat and Tiaty sub counties respectively. 6.2.2: Non-Food Interventions Table 15: on-going Non-food Interventions Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame Agriculture Creation of productive assets by households- Especially Farm ponds Increased productio household level, reduced poverty levels and conserved environm ent in areas Wards 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National and County of Baringo, Developmen t partners Post-Harvest Practices(In puts supply construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine Reduced harvest losses especially on cereal Wards Millio 2018-2020 County Soil Fertility management Increased productivi ty and increased security Wards 0.6 M 2017-2019 Baringo County - Agriculture Nutrition and Food Utilization initiatives Increased household nutrition Wards 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo County - Agriculture Livestock IMMEDIATE Disease control Reduced incidence BCentral (Blue 5,700 Sheep Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame (Vaccination s and vector control) livestock diseases increased livestock prices and hence better term of trade tongue) BSouth (Blue tongue) Mogotio (CCPPP BNorth BSouth (SGP) BSouth (Vector Control suppress (for all targete areas) 2,000 5,912 Shoats 2,896 Cattle 30,000 Shoats Dec-Feb MOALF, Disease surveillance on RVF and other diseases monitor disease incidences for proper interventi All sub counties 50,000 100,000 TLUs Aug 2018- Feb, 2019 (MOALF) MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity building of Farmers(Nor mal Ext and Pastoral Field School Concept) Informed staff and farmers for best practices Baringo North Baringo south Baringo central Mogotio Throughou (MOALF) Partners Health and Nutrition Vitamin A improve ent status of the -hence All health facilities, selected 1,850,0 70,000 households Routine supported by UNICEF, Specific Location No. of ation Time Frame security. improve ent status of the -hence security All health facilities 2,000,0 32,000 households Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) improvead just the Nutrient status of affected 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 20,0000 1,500 households Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro complementa ry Foods) To lower morbidity mortalities hence improving security. All health facilities communit y units 1,000,0 20,000 households Routine County Department of Health Iron Folate ion among Pregnant Women improve ent status of the -hence security All health facilities 2,450,0 21,000 households Routine County Department of Health supported by UNICEF Intensify Nutrition surveillance. To detect malnutritio n early and intervene All health facilities 700,000 115 ,000 under-fives Routine County department of health supported by UNICEF 6.3: Recommended Interventions 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention Table 16: Population in need of Food Assistance SNo. Sub-County Population in need ( range min max) Proposed mode of intervention Tiaty 15-20 Baringo South 10-15 Baringo North 10-15 Mogotio Baringo central 1-5 Eldama Ravine 1-5 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions AGRICULTURE Count Interventi No. of beneficiari Proposed Implementer Require Resourc Available Resources Frame Inputs provision including capacity building on harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs 10 million) Staff Enhance asset creation households especially ponds and water pans for food production National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs Million) Staff Enhance irrigated Agriculture conducting analysis and crops suitability surveys in Irrigati scheme National Government, County development partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff irrigation schemes Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers to Schools and other institutions Learning Learning income generation and food Nutrition security Schools farms Ministry of Education, Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation, County development partners Finances Million) Staff, Availability of well fenced farms, Support of Extension through digifarm platform Projects monitoring , effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages Communicati companies, County Development partners Kshs 15 Million Staff WATER Provision of PVC tanks of10,000 Capacity to learning Institutions and Health Centres Institutions County Government, Ministry of water and irrigation, 10.8M Improved structures technical backstoppin Tiaty, North, Mechanize d desilting expansion of 24No. Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, 45,000 House holds County Government, Land technical expertise March- South, Critical water pans while dry ll Sub Design and Constructi on of Multi- purpose 55,000 County Government, Land technical expertise 201920 All Sub Water trucking and Water treatment Chemicals Institutions County Government, Human resource March All Sub Provide fueldiesel subsidy to households County Government, 14.4M Water infrastructu ral facilities March",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2020.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and Baringo County Steering Group February 2021 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG). The 2020 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 18th -29th January, 2021 with the overall goal of developing an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of 2020 short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the OND was normal and took place in the first dekad of October resulting in an average amount of 206 mm of rainfall against a normal of 180mm. Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was poor with the peak of the season being observed in the second dekad of October while cessation of the season was earlier than normal (first dekad of December). COVID-19 -19 restrictions were still in place which hampered smooth flow of goods and services, but the most affected were the health and education sectors. The County experienced insecurity challenges in parts of Tiaty Sub County which led to disruption of markets and other essential services and currently there is a major security operation going on to restore law and order. Livestock disease cases were minimal while lake waters are still high causing displacements and submerging of land. Area under maize acreage reduced for both rain fed and irrigated agriculture while yield from rain fed agriculture was less than 60 percent of Long-Term Average (LTA) due to early rainfall cessation. Household stocks were 20 percent above LTA due to carry over from long rains harvest while forage conditions were good in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral areas where its poor to fair. Livestock body condition was good for all the species across the livelihood zones other than in pastoral areas where body condition for cattle was fair. Milk production was below LTA across the County and consumption was near normal, the prices of milk were above the LTA. Tropical livestock units were below the LTA with livestock disease outbreak being minimal. Main water sources were at normal capacities, the access distances to water points remained normal other than in pastoral areas where trekking distances were above LTA. Waiting time at water points and water consumption were normal across the County. About 73 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption score while another 25 percent had borderline food consumption score, the coping strategy index (CSI) stands at 12.47 with Agro pastoral livelihood zone having the highest CSI at 16.6. Adult morbidity was on a declining trend compared to the last three years and the three most common diseases reported were malaria, diarrhoea and typhoid although the reported cases were lower than in 2019. COVID-19 - 19 impacted heavily on Vitamin A immunization coverage leading to low coverage compared to the year 2019. Latrine coverage and hand washing practices were reported to be lowest in pastoral areas at three and two percent respectively but highest in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 78 and 69 percent respectively. According to SMART survey of 2019, malnutrition was highest in Tiaty Sub County at 20.9 percent (GAM), 9.3 percent (SAM) and 40.1 percent for stunting while malnutrition by MUAC in December showed 95 percent of the children not being malnourished. There was a reduction in enrolment for term II compared to term I in both primary and secondary schools and this was due to COVID-19 related issues that took place while students were at home such as teen pregnancies, circumcision ceremonies among others. Nearly 5,700 girls did not report back to school of which 70 percent of the cases could be due to pregnancies. About 73 percent of all the students in primary schools are under school feeding programs. The indicative phase of food security classification is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Methodology and approach 2.0 Drivers of food and nutrition security in the County .................................................................2 2.1 Rainfall performance 2.2 ConflictInsecurity 2.3 COVID-19 Pandemic 2.4 Other shocks and hazards 2.4.1 Shocks ..............................................................................................................................3 2.4.2 Hazards 3.0 Impact of drivers on food and nutrition security .......................................................................4 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop production ...............................................................................................................5 3.1.2 Main cereal stocks ...........................................................................................................7 3.1.3 Livestock production .......................................................................................................7 3.1.3 Water for Livestock .......................................................................................................11 3.1.4 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................15 3.2 .1 Market prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade ................................................................................................................17 3.2.3 Income sources ..............................................................................................................17 3.2.4 Water access and availability ........................................................................................18 3.2.5 Food Consumption ........................................................................................................20 3.2.6 Coping Strategy .............................................................................................................21 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ...................................................................................21 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation.............................................................22 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ........................................................23 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level action ........................23 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response.......24 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators .............................................................................26 4.0 Food security prognosis ...........................................................................................................29 4.1 Prognosis assumptions .............................................................................................................29 4.2 Food security outlook 5.0 Conclusions and interventions .................................................................................................31 5.1 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................................32 5.1.1 Phase classifications..............................................................................................................32 5.1.2 Summary of finding .......................................................................................................32 5.1.3 Sub County ranking .......................................................................................................32 5.2 Ongoing interventions ......................................................................................................33 5.2.1 Food interventions .........................................................................................................33 5.2.2 Nonfood interventions ...................................................................................................33 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions .........................................................................................................37 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions ...................................................................................................38 1.0 INTRODUCTION Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The area of the County is approximated at 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) and a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics-KNBS). The County is divided into six (7) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the County which include mixed farming, pastoral, agropastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the County across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones including migratory pests like Desert Locusts. 1.1 Methodology and approach The food and nutrition security assessment exercise is usually conducted twice a year to assess the impact of long and short rains on the livelihoods and as such develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis using primary and secondary data. The 2020 Short rains assessment was no different, Primary data was collected from the community in sample sites that would have focus group discussions, key informant and market interviews. Transect drive and observation was also used. Checklists were administered to the relevant departments to collect secondary quantitative data. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data and National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) bulletins. Data collected was then collated, analyzed and triangulated and analysis made by livelihood zones. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were used to do the classification of the severity and identify the possible causes of food insecurity. The assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team from the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of Agriculture, Livestock, Water, Education and Health and Nutrition at the County level. The assessment in the County was done from 18th to 29th January 2021. Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones Baringo County Population by livelihoods Agropastoral Mixed Farming 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July for crop production. The short rains season is in October, November and December (OND). The onset of the OND was normal and took place in the first dekad of October resulting in an average amount of 206 mm against a normal of 180mm. The Southern and Western parts of the County comprising of Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North and West of Tiaty Sub Counties received 126 to 200 percent of the normal rains while Baringo South and East of Tiaty Sub Counties received less than 100 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2).Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains were poor with the peak of the season being observed in the second dekad of October. There was early cessation of the season which happened by first dekad of December. 2.2 ConflictInsecurity There is some serious conflict in some parts of the County which has triggered massive security operation by the government in an effort to restore law and order. The conflict has been triggered by issues of natural resource sharing, cattle rustling as well as conflict arising from administrativepolitical boundaries. The main hot spot is currently in Kapedo East and West sub locations in Silale ward, Tiaty Sub County. Other hot spots include Nakoko sub location in Ribkwo ward in Tiaty East Sub County, Kalabata, Tuluk and Kapturo Sub locations in Bartabwa ward of Baringo North sub County, Mukutani, Rugus, Arabal and Kiserian sub locations in Mukutani ward of Baringo South Sub County as well as Barketiew and Loruk sub locations in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. Total of five wards are affected by the insecurity, its estimated that populations affected is 50 percent in Silale ward, 15 percent in Bartabwa ward and 20 percent in Ribkwo, Mukutani and Saimo Soi wards. The conflict has led to food market disruptions leading to their closure in the affected areas while movement of goods and transport services has come to a halt. The conflict has resulted in disruption of livelihood activities and displacement of populations in the affected areas while provision of health and education services has been affected as some schools have been shut down especially in Silale ward. 2.3 COVID-19 Pandemic Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, basic social services were interrupted whereby the number of people seeking essential nutrition and health services in health facilities declined. The County Government put in place mechanisms that ensured that there was continuity in frequency of visits to the health facilities and improve on COVID-19 preventive measures such as placing of hand washing facilities in designated sites with water and soap, screening of patients visiting the health facilities and ongoing Community led total sanitation (CLTS) interventions. With the closure of schools, there was a drastic decline of stocks held by farmers by 40 percent within three Figure 2:Rainfall performance months and this was high compared to long term average (LTA) consumption. Most of the food markets were operational but COVID-19 protocols were not followed strictly, for instance the sampled markets of Emining, Mogotio, Tenges and Kapkayo no functional hand washing facilities were seen, social distancing and wearing of mask was not also followed and its recommended that the regulations be implemented to avoid any spike in the near future. Schools were still closed until January 2021 when they reopened. 2.4 Other shocks and hazards 2.4.1 Shocks High food commodity prices In Pastoral areas, prices of cereals and pulses were relatively higher compared to the previous seasons. With the ongoing conflict in some parts of the pastoral areas, the prices are expected to shoot up further due to disruptions of markets and food supplies. 2.4.2 Hazards Floods The impact of floods caused by rising water levels of Lake Baringo, Lake 94 and Lake Bogoria is still being felt in the affected areas around these lakes in Baringo South Sub County. The floods have caused displacement of households and at least 700 hectares of farm land has been submerged. This has caused reduction of available land for agricultural production mostly in the irrigated livelihood zone. Livestock diseases Some pockets in the County are being affected by livestock diseases thus affecting livestock productivity. In the pastoral areas, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and Pests des petits ruminants (PPR) are the most common diseases affecting the small stock while lumpy skin disease (LSD) and foot and mouth (FMD) diseases are the most common in mixed farming livelihood zone. Blue tongue disease was also reported in the marginal mixed farming areas of Mogotio and irrigated livelihood zone of Mogotio. Desert Locusts The County reported the second wave of Desert Locusts, swarms of immature adults have criss crossed and also roosted in the County, five wards reported invasion (Mochongoi, Kabarnet and Bartabwa, Kolloa and Tenges) The latest swarm of Desert Locusts have roosted at Tenges ward for two days on forested area, causing damage to pasture and fodder, currently surveillance is continuing for purposes of control as residents scare them away also.(Not recommended) The swarms reported at Bartabwa Ward of Baringo North Sub County was moving westward of the County towards Elgeyo Marakwet County. The second Swarm was reported at the border between Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet. The third and fourth Swarms were reported at Mochongoi Ward at the Border between Laikipia County and Baringo. Surveillance and reporting are being carried by trained Scouts and staff. 3.0 IMPACT OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Short rains in Baringo are critical for food and Nutrition security as they supplement the harvest from the Long rains and help in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. In 2020 the County had above normal long rains and this affected land preparation and cropping of the short rains. The short rains of 2020 in the County were slightly above the LTA average. Most of the farmers planted various crops during the OND rains and this increased the area under rain fed crop farming, for instance area under green grams and beans was 82 percent and four percent respectively of their LTA achievement. The crop was good but from the first dekad of December the rains reduced, the early cessation of the rains affected the yield of most rain fed crops by between 30 percent to 40 percent. The crops have been harvested in Agropastoral but in mixed farming harvesting is still going on. The onset of OND rains was timely on the first dekad of October but the cessation was early compared to LTA-i.e. First dekad of December. The distribution over space and time was fair across all the livelihood zones. High temperatures and intermittent dry periods were experienced during the month of December which caused flower abortion in beans affecting the yields and caused stunted growth of late planted maize. The area under crop during the assessment was low compared to the LTA this was because farmers heeded to advisories given by extension officers and Meteorological department on the performance of the short rains which was forecasted to be below average. Farm lands were still submerged by increased waters of Lakes Baringo, 94 and Bogoria (Loboi, Ilchamus and Mukutani) More than 700 Ha of Farmland had been destroyed. Main crops grown in the County are maize, beans, finger millet, cow peas, tomatoes and watermelons. The contribution of these crops to income and food is different across the different livelihood zones (Table 1). Table 1:Contribution of crops to income and food across the cropping livelihood zones Livelihood Income Agro pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed farming Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons 3.1.1 Crop production Rain fed Agriculture Table 2:Main crops under rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2020 Short rains season Average (5 year) planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2020 Short rains season production (90 kg bags)Tons ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons 1. Maize 2,700 8,020 2. Beans 8,717 13,310 4. Green grams 5. Cowpeas 6. Irish potatoes 1,255 1,289 11,405 13,020 7. Finger Millet The area planted in 2020 short rains season with maize was nine percent lower than the long term average (LTA) and this was attributed to, farmers heeding to weather advisories that the short rains would be insufficient, late harvesting of the long rains crop and some farmers observing closed season to break fall armyworm (FAW) cycle (Table 2). Restrictions on commuters and increased fare in public transport due to COVID-19 meant less farmers could travel to source for farm inputs from outside the County (Nakuru or Eldoret) and inputs like fertilizers were expensive as National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) was not stocking subsidized fertilizer during the short rains. On a positive note the closure of schools created availability of household labour which had a positive impact on land preparation and also timely harvesting especially of the MAM and JJA planted crops. The area under Pulses i.e. beans, green grams and cowpeas increased by five percent. 80 percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA and this was because most farmers had planted the early maturing and drought tolerant crops. Expected Production will be lower than the LTA by 60 percent for maize and this is because of early cessation of the rains and high temperatures being experienced across the County. Production of beans and cowpeas was expected to reduce by 35 percent and two percent respectively and this was attributed to abortion of flowers and households using Cowpeas leaves as vegetables. Irrigated Agriculture Table 3: Main crops under irrigated agriculture planted during 2020 Short rains season (Ha) Average planted during the Short rains season 2020 Short rains season production bags) ProjectedActual Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,500 1,250 Beans Tomatoes Watermelons Cow peas Green Grams Kales Onions Black night shade Spinach There was fair to good recharge of irrigation water sources depending on the livelihood zone. The area under maize reduced by three percent and this was attributed to good long rains harvests that made farmers not to plant again (Table 3). Increased campaigns on household food security led to significant increase in area of the other crops especially horticultural crops and pulses. Deliberate efforts done by the County Government, National Government and development partners had contributed to increase on the area under irrigation including household irrigation for food and Nutrition security. A lot of emphasis has been done on Kitchen gardening through projects like Drought Resilient and Sustainable Livelihood Program (DRSLP), Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Program (KCSAP) and Baringo County Resilient project (SFSP) saw the area under irrigation increase. Production for all crops under irrigation is expected to be higher than the 3.1.2 Main cereal stocks Table 4: Cereal stocks Commodity Held by Maize Sorghum Green gram TOTAL Current Current Current Current Current Farmers 717,384 605,966 1,880 719,967 595,03 Traders 104,105 72,767 104,880 73,344 Millers 35,370 17,463 35,370 17,463 Assistance 14,400 14,403 The stocks held by Households were 20 percent above LTA and this was because farmers had good harvests during the 2020 long rains (Table 4). Mixed farming Livelihood zone had the highest stocks held by farmers, for instance, Eldama Ravine had the highest number of stocks at 52 percent (half of what is held by households) of the total stocks held by households. Traders and Millers had stocks above their long-term average and this was attributed to poor purchasing capacity of the households. The closure of schools due to COVID-19 also affected stocks held by traders as schools were a major market for the traders. During the assessment no NCPB stores had maize stocks except rice which was being sold commercially. But the stores are currently buying maize from farmers at the cost of Kshs 2700, which is higher than the prevailing market price of average Kshs 2500. The pastoral zones have no significant stocks and most of the households were depending on markets for their supplies. There was disruption of market functions in most of the pastoral livelihood zones due to increased conflict while in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone 30 percent of the households had stocks which could last between 1-2 months. In the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones the stocks held are between 60 to 80 percent and this will last between 3- 5 months. With the closure of schools due to COVID-19, there was an increase in household size which led to increased consumption rate of household stocks and on the other hand during the reopening of schools, farmers disposed some of their stocks for payment of school fees. This led to decline of stocks held by farmers by 40 percent within three months and this is high compared to LTA consumption 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. Livestock production is an important source of food and income in the County whereby it contributes 25 percent as a source of food in both mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones whereas in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, it contributes 20 percent and 21 percent respectively. As a source of income, livestock contributes 23 percent, eight percent, 50 percent and 88 percent in mixed farming, irrigated farming, agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The short rains season are important for the regeneration of pastures and browse and at the same time contributing significantly in the recharge of water sources for livestock. The rains are important in supplementing livestock feed by providing crop residues from the farms. Pasture and browse condition The current forage condition and expected duration is due to the cumulative effects of the long rains, short rains and off-season (JJA) rains, overall, there is a decline in forage quantity and quality in the pastoral livelihood zone due to poor performance of the 2020 short rains. The pastures are expected to last for three months in mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and 2-5 months in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones (Table 5). Factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity and tensions around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Pasture conservation and harvesting is picking up as more farmers have been sensitized on its importance as a source of feed during periods of drought spells and also as a source of cash income (Table 6). Table 5: Pasture and browse condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) access Mixed farming limit limit Irrigated cropping to fair Floods Floods pastoral to fair limit to fair limit s and floods to fair s and floods Baled hay status Table 6: Bailed hay status Livelihood No. of Hay Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 7,500 4,500 2 are held by farmers Baringo Central 30 by farmers Association. ERavine 500,000 430,000 80 by farmers 20 FCS Tiaty Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 150,000 100,000 100 by farmers from community stores Mogotio 500,000 385,000 75By farmer groups individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition During 2020 the County received good long rains, and off-season rains, forage condition was good in all livelihood zones (Table 7). However, the underperformance of short rains coupled with high temperatures has led to rapid depletion of forages quality and nutritional quality thus affecting the performance of livestock. The resultant forage situation has led to both cattle and sheep being in good to fair and fair body condition in agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectfully but goats and camels have remained in good condition across all livelihood zones. The present body condition is attributed to present quality of both pastures and browse. Table 7: Livestock body condition d Zone Cattle Sheep Camel Current Current Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Good to Good to Livestock Birth Rates The general birth rates are normal across all livelihood zones, at three percent. The calving, kidding and lambing rates are attributed to good quality pastures across all livelihood zones during gestation period and at birth. The rainfall performance influenced all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and decreased trekking distance. The birth rates are attributed to good performance of both off-season rains (JJA)of 2019 and long rains of 2020 during conception and gestation period. This contributed to good quality forages during this period Tropical Livestock Units Table 8: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average The mixed farming and irrigated crop zone raise crops and keep some livestock for dairy. The agro pastoral zones have livestock and practice some crop production. The pastoral zones depend entirely on livestock with some pockets of drought tolerant crops being planted. The present tropical livestock unit (TLU) possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment (LRA), are attributed to continued good rainfall performance for the last three seasons, which in turn has resulted to increased quality of forage. The variations in TLUs are also attributed to improvement in birth rates due to improved forage quality during conception. The average translated to 3.8 TLU in poor households as compared to 6.9 in medium households (Table 8). The present TLU are compared to 3.4 in poor and 5.7 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLU as compared to last assessment. Milk Availability There was decrease in milk production across the livelihood zones at 25-33 percent and this was attributed to low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficiency of lactating cows (Table 9). The agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are still importing milk from the mixed farming zones while milk prices have increased by 11 percent in irrigated livelihood zone which is the lowest to 25 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, there was notable increase in consumption especially in the pastoral livelihood zone and this was brought about by presence of school going children at home. Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Table 9: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood zone production household (Litres) consumption household (Litres) Prices (KES) Current LTA Current Current LT Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral 3.1.3 Water for Livestock The water pans recharge levels were between 35-50 percent and the situation was below normal and it was attributed to underperformance of short rains. and high temperatures and hence high evaporation rates (Table 10). The variation in watering frequency for livestock is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity whereby trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year. There was no effect of COVID-19 on Livestock access to water, however there was lack of adherence to health restriction protocols in watering convergence areas across the livelihood zones. Water for Livestock Table 10: Water for livestock d zone Sources Return trekking distance (Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes 1-2.5 h the h the Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-2.5 h the h the pastoral Water pans, Boreholes , rivers Streams, water pans, Borehole holes, water pans. Water- pans, holes rivers Livestock Movement and Migration There were no reported migrations due to pasture and water deficiency. However, insecurity tensions between Baringo North with Tiaty and Tiaty with Turkana have caused households to move to the interior of their sub-counties. There are minimal migrations from Kinyach, Baringo North and Arabal, Baringo South to the hilly sides in search of pastures. On the Projected trend of migration, its anticipated that in the next two months, livestock are likely to move from Kinyach, Kolloa to Kalabata and Kerio valley areas while others are likely to move from Kapedo to Kasarani, Malaso areas as well as in to Marakwet and West Pokot counties. Other animals are likely to move from Yatya to Sibilo and around areas surrounding Lake Baringo. In areas around Nginyang Loyamorok, animals are likely to move to Amaya and in to Samburu and Laikipia counties. Animals in Mogotio Sub County are likely to move to Nakuru County and Eldama Ravine forest while those in Sibilo and Bartum locations will move to Perkerra, Arabal, Mukutani, TangulBei and then in to Laikipia County. These are not normal movements and are being contributed by the insecurity issues in Tiaty Sub County and deterioration of pasture conditions in the pastoral areas. With the movement of animals, milk production is expected to decline at the household level while local markets are likely to be deprived of animals for sales thus affecting income flow for the pastoral households. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Reported diseases There were few livestock disease cases reported which did not qualify for quarantine as per spatial occurrence (Table 11). Vaccination against lumpy skin disease, (LSD), contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and pestes des petits ruminants (PPR) was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 11: Livestock diseases County Disease Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken(Vaccinati Baringo Central Endemic Goats No report on deaths vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Report later Cattle No action Tiaty Endemic -Sub- Countywise Goats 8,642 Vaccinated Countywise Sheep goats 18,932 Countywise Cattle camels Vaccinations planned Loyamorok, Silale, Tirioko Cattle 5,655 Vaccinated Mogotio Countywise Cattle No vaccinations Endemic Goats Vaccination done Countywise Cattle Vaccination done Tongue Countywise Sheep No vaccinations Countywise Cattle No vaccinations Countywise Small stocvk Vaccination done Eldama Ravine No diseases reported Baringo south Endemic Goats 10,256 Heart water Bekibon Goats Marigat Kimoriot Cattle Mange Kapuikui Goats Lumpy Disease Marigat, Loboi, Salabani Cattle 3,250 Baringo north Countywise (Endemic) Goats No deaths goats vaccinated. Kabartonjo, Bartabwa, Saimo soi,Saimo Kipasaraman Shoats No deaths 19,322 vaccinated typhoid All wards Poultry 200 deaths Treatment on affected Barwessa, Bartabwa Cattle 76 deaths 19,068 vaccinated Anaplasmo Saimo soi Cattle Rabies wards except Saimo No deaths 213 vaccinated 3.1.4 Impact on availability Household maize stocks are above normal compared to long term mean and this should be able to sustain the food requirements of the mixed livelihood zone up to the next long rains harvest while on the other hand, production of pulses will be lower than the LTA due to early cessation of the short rains and therefore the County will have to rely on supplies from outside the County. Milk production is low compared to the LTA thus there is going to be a deficit for milk consumption at the household level particularly in the pastoral areas. Household TLUs are lower than LTA but on a recovery trend while livestock body condition is good which should be able to fetch good prices more so in areas that do not face security challenges. In Tiaty Sub County, the ongoing security operations are likely to trigger massive livestock migrations and other forms of livelihood disruptions which will affect milk production. 3.2 .1 Market prices On effects of COVID-19 on market operations, most of the food stuff markets were operational but COVID-19 protocols were not followed strictly. In the sampled markets of Emining, Mogotio, Tenges and Kapkayo the hand washing facilities were available but were not being utilized, social distancing and wearing of mask was not also followed. Recommendations is to have the regulations implemented to avoid any spike in the near future. In pastoral livelihood zone 85 percent of the population was depending on markets for access of their stocks while in agropastoral zone, 40 percent were depending on markets. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones less than five percent were depending on markets especially those who are urban habitants. The price of maize in the County ranged between Kshs. 27-30Kg in mixed farming livelihood zone and Kshs 42-45 in the pastoral areas while a 90 kg bag was retailing at Kshs 2000-3600. The highest price was recorded in pastoral zone and lowest in the mixed farming Livelihood zone. Most of the stocks were sourced locally from Eldama Ravine Sub County and Mochongoi ward in Baringo South Sub County. In the pastoral, agropastoral and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, more farmers are purchasing from traders and in the next three months more households will be purchasing food from markets as household stocks will have been depleted The main markets for livestock in the County are Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Livestock markets are operational except those in Tiaty Sub County where there is ongoing conflict and security operations have disrupted movement of animals and people to the markets. Livestock animals being traded are mostly being sourced from within the County while the buyers coming from outside the County are mostly from Nairobi and Nakuru counties. For food crops, there were no notable market disruptions in the County during the short rains period. But there was controlled movement of transport to areas affected by conflict in Tiaty Sub County which affected access of food stuffs at the markets. Despite the areas near the lakes experiencing increased water levels, markets were not closed but accessibility was hindered as other means of transportation like boats were being used. In the next six months the operations in the agropastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones will remain stable but in the pastoral zones especially of Tiaty Sub County, markets functions might remain disrupted due to the ongoing conflict. The main source of maize and beans are mostly from within the County although the volumes being traded in mixed farming, marginal mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are extremely low due to low demand as households are still keeping large stocks that were carried forward from the long rains harvest. About five percent, 65 percent and 85 percent of the households in mixed farming, agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are currently dependent on markets for food. Market prices Maize prices There was a rise of eight percent in the prevailing average price for a kilogram of maize at Kshs. 43, compared to the previous month of December at 40 (Figure 3). The prevailing prices were fairly below the long-term average at such time of the year. The price is similar for wet years (Years with heavy rainfall) but slightly less compared to dry years (Years with least rainfall). The increase in prices can be attributed to market disruptions in pastoral areas of Tiaty Sub County Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest price of Kshs .45 per kg and is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing conflict in Tiaty Sub County while irrigated livelihood and mixed farming zones recorded the lowest at Kshs.30 per kg. Goat Prices The average price of a medium sized goat was at Kshs.2,777 as compared previous month December at Kshs. 3,042 (Figure 13). The price was above the LTA by four percent. The prices were highest in fishing livelihood zone at Kshs. 4,283 lowest pastoral livelihood zone at Kshs.2, 598. The decline in price is as a result of disruption of markets. Figure 3: Maize prices Maize prices (KSH) Maize Prices Baringo County- January Figure 3: Maize prices 4000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Goat Prices (Ksh.) Goat Prices Baringo County- January Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade for the month under review decreased comparison to the previous month. A sale of one goat was able to fetch 64.6 kgs of maize (Figure 5). This has been attributed to by increasing maize prices in comparison to decreasing goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 95.9 while pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 57.7 3.2.3 Income sources Livestock production constitutes the main source of income in Pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones at 88 percent and 50 percent respectively while cash crop production is the main source of income in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zone at 59 percent and 30 percent respectively (Table 12). With the lake water rising levels, there is a notable increase in fishing activities as an unintended outcome and thus contributing to household income in agropastoral and irrigated livelihood zones. Table 12:Income sources Source of income Contributions to cash income per livelihood zone () Agropastoral Irrigated Mixed farming Livestock production Food crop production Cash crop production Small businesses Casual waged labour Formal waged labour Poultry production Kgs of maize bought from sale of a goat Terms of Trade in Baringo County - January 2021 Wet Year Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.4 Water access and availability Main sources of water Generally, the main sources of water for domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells (Table 13). The water sources are mainly concentrated in mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Mixed farming and irrigated farming zones Communities have more access to water than in pastoral livelihood zone. Most of the Water pans across the County in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 50-60 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 60-70 percent normally. The available water is likely to last for one to two months as compared to two to three months of their normal. In mixed and irrigated livelihood zones, rivers were recharged 40-60 percent of their normal capacity except for Waseges, Kiserian, Yeptos and Emoo rivers that have low water levels and had low recharges respectively. The water is expected to last for three to four months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are below normal and are in a declining trend due high temperatures, utilization and siltation levels. Currently, 80 - 90 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs for example Kirim , Ngoron, Kapkun , Tinomoi and Barkipi boreholes while water quality challenges is high at Perkerra, Loboi, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Kisrian, Logumgum, Muserech among others areas. Table 13: Main water sources Ward Livelihood Water Source (Three major sources) Normal Operatio Current Operation al Sources Projected Duration (Operati Sources) Normal Duration that water months of full Capacity Recharge d by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Ngooron, Kreeze , Kirim , Ngoron, Barkipii, Tinomoi, Tangulbei, Tebei, Kapkun boreholes Water 1 2 Months 3 4 Months 50 - Springs 3 - 4 Months 4 5 Months 30 - pastoral Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Water Months 3 4 Months 50 - Springs 4Months Over 6 months 30 - Mixed farming Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Springs Over 6 Months Over 6 Months 50 - Rivers Over 6 Months Months 40 - Irrigated cropping Rivers 3months Over 6 months 30 - Shallow Wells 4months Over 6 months Reducing Discharge Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Over 3 Months stable The average distances to domestic water sources were slightly above normal at four to six kilometres in pastoral and four to 4.5km in agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 3.5 5.5 km. The distances were slightly above normal at (1.5 -2.5Km) in mixed farming and stable in irrigated farming livelihood zones at 0.5 15 Km. This was attributed to fair recharge of water sources during the short rains season and household members are forced to walk further in search of water after depleting the nearby sources. The waiting time is stable across all livelihoods zones at 2-4 minutes in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal while in mixed farming livelihood zone is between 2-3 minutes. The waiting time was lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at 1-2 minutes. The cost of water at the source is generally stable at kshs.3 and 5 across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free. The water vendors sold water depending on the distances covered but on average it was at 20 per 20 liters jerrycan. Water consumption per person per day is slightly below normal at 20 25 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone while in agropastoral and pastoral zone it is 12 -20 litres per person per day as compared to normal (Table 14). Table 14:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption livelihood Return Distance Water Domestic Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3 - 4 4 - 6 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 2 - 4 12 - 15 12 - 15 3-3.5 4 - 4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 2 - 4 15 - 20 15 - 20 Mixed Farming 0.5 - 1.5 1.5 - 2.5 3 - 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 20 - 25 20 - 25 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5- 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 20 - 25 20 - 25 About 2530 percent of households in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones in Muserechi, Mbechot, Chepkalacha, Sirata, Kaptara, Sintaani reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of inadequate toilet coverage and low levels of personal hygiene. 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food consumption Score Generally, the County had an acceptable Consumption Score of 50 as compared to 49 the previous month (Figure 6). The proportion of households acceptable, borderline consumption score by January 2021 was 73, 25 and two percent respectively. pastoral livelihood zone, about 38.6 percent of the households do not have acceptable food consumption and this implies that they are likely to be skipping some nutritious food stuffs mostly animal proteins like meat, fish and milk. Milk consumption The average milk consumption per household per day was at 1.4 litres, which was similar as compared to the previous month (Figure consumption was highest in the agropastoral livelihood zone at two litres and lowest in irrigated livelihood zone at one litre. The amount consumed was below the long-term average partly due to reduced milk production in the irrigated livelihood zone Food Consumption Score October 2020-January 2021 Borderline Acceptable Figure 6: Food consumption ProductionHHDayLitre Household Milk Consumption Baringo County- January 2021 Long Term Mean Figure 7: Milk consumption 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The average coping strategy index was at 12.7, a slight increase as compared to the previous month at 12.47 (Figure 8). Households in agropastoral livelihood employed more coping strategies at 16.6 followed by pastoral livelihood zone at 14. The irrigated zone employed least coping mechanisms Overall, households in agropastoral livelihood zone have recorded relatively higher CSI values for the past six months followed those pastoral livelihood zone. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns a) Adults Generally, morbidity trends among adult population is lower than in the year 2017 and 2019 but higher than in 2018 (Figure 9). During the short rains season, the cases have been on a declining trend. 10.0 15.0 20.0 Coping strategy Index October 2020- January 2021 Irrigated Agro pastoral Figure 8:Coping strategy index Figure 9:Adult morbidity Morbidity and Mortality patterns in adults b) Children Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in the County for children (Figure 10). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2018 was higher compared to the other years same period, the year 2020 recorded a lower morbidity rates due to COVID- 19 pandemic attributing to low health seeking behavior. Disease prevalence There reported outbreak of disease during the short rains period July- December 2020 as compared to the previous year 2019, due to improved hygiene promotion and child caring practices as most of the people following COVID-19 measures (Figure 11). 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Table 15: Immunization and Vitamin A coverage Year Children 6-11 months Children 12-59 months Children 6-11 months Children 12-59 months Received vitamin supplementation Total Population (6-11 months) Total Population (12-59 months) Total Population (12-59 months Proportion children Received Vit A supplementation in the last 6 months Proportion children Received supplementation months Not Available Not Available Figure 10: Child morbidity Morbidity of Children Less than Five Years 2017 - 2020 Diarrhoea Malaria Malaria Diarhoea Typhoid Dysentry Cholera Measles Number of Cases Diseases Disease Prevalence Figure 11:Disease Prevalence Not Available Not Available Vitamin A coverage decreased in 2020 as compared to similar period of the previous year 2019 and this was attributed to effects of COVID-19, which led to reduction in community-based activities including vitamin A supplementation and mobilization in community units by community health volunteers (CHVs) and health workers (Table 15). Inadequate campaignscommunity mobilization to reach the target under-five population due to COVID-19 pandemic and Health workers strike also affected Vitamin A coverage during the reporting period. Immunization coverage in year 2020 increased despite the impact of COVID-19 as compared to the year 2019, this could be attributed to increase in the number of outreaches supported by partners during the COVID-19 pandemic period and improved defaulter tracing mechanisms, although Tiaty and Baringo North sub counties couldnt achieve the fully immunized targets.. 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition sector in COVID-19 context There was lack of information on the availability of services as the community health workers were not able to deliver services without personal protective equipment and they were also exposed to the risk of contracting the disease. Generally, there was anxiety and fear of COVID-19 and that interrupted basic social services and health services. The department of health had to put in place mechanisms on continuity of essential services like reduced frequency of visits and client follow- up through phone calls. The County government endeavored to strengthen COVID-19 guidelines by supporting the purchase of hand washing facilities and distributed them to the social places such as markets, bus terminus, schools and shopping centers among others. The County Government also enhanced enforcement on use of face mask and supported the vulnerable population through procurement and supply of basic foods and to a larger extend gave out cash transfers to the old population. The County invested in dealing with stigma through advocacy as a way of allaying fears associated with COVID-19 thus encouraged the community to seek health services as they had clear information on the COVID-19 guidelines and the continuity of health services. Most of the line ministries budgets were re-directed in combating the pandemic therefore affecting all the aspects of the supply chain management while the global lock downs affected the supply of nutrition commodities as they are procured from other countries where movement transport was interfered with. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level action Community engagement initiatives and messaging were driven through the use of print media while Health promotion teams at the County and Sub County levels engaged themselves in community outreach advocacy services. Use of local radio stations programs was instrumental in passing out COVID-19 information to the community. There was high adherence to COVID-19 directives in urban population due to better socio-economic status as compared to rural populations where dogmatic believes affected reception and adherence to COVID-19 directives. The County embarked on robust food distribution programs to the vulnerable population to cushion them against the effects of the pandemic and also procured other health essentials and nutrition commodities for treatment of moderate malnutrition. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response There was a functional coordinating system in the department of health services for all health services as there already existed a health stakeholders forum which held its meeting on quarterly basis. Also, there is a County nutrition technical forum which is cascaded down to the Sub County level and is held on a quarterly basis. 3.3.7 Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage and utilization Table 16: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine Coverage January to June 2020 Coverage July to December 2020 Coverage Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Pokot Tiaty East Baringo County The toilet coverage in the County is average 38 percent and the distribution is seven percent, 18 percent, 23 percent and 52 percent in pastoral, agropastoral, irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively and this is attributed to culture and nature of livelihood zones (Table 16). Toilet coverage in mixed livelihood zone is higher as a result of concentrated development in terms of urban setup and exposure to quality sanitation while in irrigated cropping it is low due to few settlements at the farm fields. Water treatment was being done by a dismal 4.4 percent households in Tiaty Sub County while 28.6 percent in Baringo North and South did the same. The most common treatment method used in Baringo North and South was boiling (71.1 percent) while in Tiaty most of the households used pot filters (59.1 percent) (SMART Survey, July 2019). The low water treatment rates may be the cause of the water borne diseases reported in the community Hand washing during critical moments Hand washing at the four critical moments was at two percent in Tiaty, 10.2 percent in Baringo North and South sub counties. Those who used soap and water were 24.7 percent in Tiaty while in Baringo North and South sub counties, those who did hand washing using soap and water were 69.5 percent. However, there could be an increase in the proportion of hand washing during the four critical time and use of soap due to the on-going COVID-19 sensitization by Baringo County Government and Partners. Nutrition status Table 17:Nutrition status by weight for age SMART survey years Prevalence of weight for age (Underweight) Data not available County average: 21.4 Tiaty sub County: 40.4 Tiaty sub County: 29.1 County average: 18.7 The nutritional status of children under five assessed by weight for age shows to be reducing from 2017 to 2019 in all the livelihood zones (Table 17), which was attributed to scale-up of nutrition interventions in the County. Table 18: SMART survey findings of 2019 SMART survey years Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) by weight for height Z scores Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) by weight for height Z scores Chronic Malnutrition (Stunting) Height for age Z scores Data not available Data not available Data not available County average:9.3 Tiaty County:20.9 County average:2.3 Tiaty Sub County: 9.3 County average: Tiaty sub County: Tiaty sub County: 16.68 County average: Tiaty sub-County: 4 County average: 0.2 Tiaty sub County: County average: 25.2-Tiaty County 5.8-Tiaty sub County Tiaty County The nutritional status of children under five shows that wasting and stunting was high in Tiaty Sub County in the year 2017 as compared to 2018 while County malnutrition rates reduced in 2018 as compared to other years due to blanket supplementary feeding strategy and scale-up of high impact nutrition interventions (Table 18). Admissions both severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) clients in 2020 was largely below long-term average and significantly fewer compared to similar period the previous year. This was attributed to fear of COVID-19 which was reported in the Country in March 2020 and health workers strike affecting facility visits admission hence reduced screening referral services at community level by Community health Volunteers. Nutrition status by MUAC The nutrition status of the sampled children using measurement of mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) under five years of age was stable and on a declining trend from the month of August to December 2020 but rose sharply in January 2021. The increment in January was observed in the pastoral livelihood zone and this was attributed to reduction production. malnutrition cases are expected to increase further as the area is currently facing insecurity challenges which have disrupted markets hence affecting flow of household incomes which would have been used to purchase food 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 19: Food Security Trends 3.5 Education Indicator Short rains assessment, January Long rains assessment, July, 2020 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) Agropastoral Good to Fair Agropastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per Agropastoral 15-25 Agropastoral 20-25 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 25-30 10.5 Proportion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm in Baringo County within July 2020-January 2021 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Figure 12:Nutritional Status by MUAC 3.5.1 Enrolment Table 20: Enrolment LEVEL TERM II 2021 TERM 1 2020 DEVIATION PERCENTAGE 25,283 27,360 GIRLS 24,143 22,753 TOTAL 49, 426 50,113 71,237 76,801 GIRLS 66,929 71,760 TOTAL 138,166 148,561 10,395 23,660 24,734 1,074 GIRLS 25,094 25,995 TOTAL 48,754 50,729 1,975 ECDE enrolment during the opening of term II, 2021 reflected a deviation of boys -7.6 percent and girls 6.1 percent from enrolment of term 1 2020 while in primary school enrolment showed a deviation of -7.2 percent and -6.7 percent boys and girls respectively from enrolment in term 1, 2020 (Table 20). Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 25-30 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 20-25 Price of maize (per kg) Kshs 40 Kshs 47 Distance to grazing Agropastoral Agropastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping 0.5-1.5 Mixed Farming Mixed Farming 0.5-1.5 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13 Agropastoral-17 Pastoral-13 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-13 Agropastoral-20 Pastoral-14 Irrigated Cropping-4 consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline While in secondary schools, 4.3 percent of boys and 3.4 percent of girls didnt report back to school for term II 2021 and this was contributed by several factors including fear of contracting COVID- 19, lack of school fees, lack of school meals program, circumcision of boys, pregnancies among school girls, charcoal burning, fishing, and motorbike businesses among others. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools During the pandemic period, a number of parents and guardians lost their incomes and livelihoods resulting from job layoffs and collapse of businesses, the loss of income meant that they could not afford to pay school fees for their children. To mitigate on the loss of income by parents and guardians it forced some students to be transferred from private schools to public schools especially around urban areas such as Kabarnet and Mogotio towns. There were also other parents who were yet to send their students back to school due to fear of contracting COVID-19 at school, inability to buy masks and sanitizers for their children. During the prolonged closure of schools, some parents took their boys for circumcision ceremonies and some of them are yet to return to school mostly in the pastoral livelihood zone, while cases of teenage pregnancies were reported in nearly all the schools. Total of 5,732 girls did not report back to school for term two for both primary and secondary schools, for the girls not reporting back it was estimated that about 70 percent of the cases could have been due to pregnancies. During the short rains period, there were no reports of infrastructure damages, food store damages, child abuse, physical violence and school gender-based violence. Cases of child labour were reported in pastoral areas of Baringo South mostly around the lakes where boys were engaged in fishing as a result of rising levels of the lakes. The percentage of students accessing E-learning offered by Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) through various platforms was less than 20 percent and this was contributed by a number of factors like poor internet connectivity, lack of interest from students, lack of appropriate gadgets such as smart phones. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains on schools There were schools that were affected by floods during the long rains season (MAM and JJA) and are still marooned by the floods, these include Ngambo primary and secondary school, Lake Bogoria Girls, Loruk primary and Day Mixed Secondary and Lake Baringo Secondary school which was relocated to higher grounds. 3.5.4 School feeding program The County benefits from two types of school meals these are: Home Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) and Regular School Meals Program (RSMP). A total of 28,582 (14,610 boys and 13,972 girls) are under RSMP. The HGSMP program funds a total of 79,339 learners of whom 40,952 are boys while 38,387 are girls. A total of 107,921 students (55, 562 boys and 52,359 girls) are under school feeding program while 39,286 students (20,696 boys and 18,590 girls) are not under any school feeding program. All ECDE learners are supported by the two school feeding programs. However, by end of January 2021, funds for HGSMP had not been disbursed to schools. 3.5.5 Inter Sector links The National Government through the Ministry of Education (MOE) provided masks to some schools, water tanks and teachers were trained to guide and counsel children during the opening of term two 2021. Sensitize children on MOH COVID-19 protocols in schools particularly observing social distance. The GOK through MOE have also provided desks to help maintain social distance to few schools that were identified as very needy. These desks were provided at a cost of Kes 2500.00 for primary schools and Kes 3,800 for secondary schools. In secondary schools, funds were provided to expand classrooms to meet the MOH protocols and funding of free day secondary education. The Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government through the chiefs and Nyumba Kumi are continuing to collaborate in identifying children who have not reported back to school. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to FEWSNET Food security outlook report of December 2021, international forecasts and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) predict that La Nia conditions are expected to persist at least through April 2021. The Long rains season of 2021 will be normal. High day light temperatures are expected to persist up to March 2021. COVID-19 cases are likely to persist in the first half of 2021 and therefore necessitating the continuation of restrictions and other COVID-19 control measures. According to the Desert Locust Global Forecast by FAO, a small third generation of breeding is likely to commence in October in Samburu County and other areas with residual swarms but may be limited by the forecasted below-normal October to December short rains that will limit the moisture needed for the hatching of laid eggs. However, with the change of monsoon winds during the October-December short rains season, there is a risk of re-invasion from Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen into Kenya. The swarms have already entered Kenya and Baringo has experienced invasion. The ongoing conflict and security operations in Tiaty Sub County are likely to last through February to March 2021. This will likely trigger livestock migrations within and outside the County. Forage conditions in range lands are likely to deteriorate in pastoral and agropastoral areas due to the depressed short rains season. Food prices are expected to be above normal in pastoral areas due to market disruptions due to insecurity. Lake water levels will continue to be higher than normal and that the long rains will exacerbate the situation. Water access and availability will be stressed in pastoral areas for the next two months Other than in pastoral areas, livestock body condition will remain good to fair. In pastoral areas, livestock body condition is likely to deteriorate in the next two months. Malnutrition rates will be below the long-term means 4.2 Food security outlook Food security outlook for the next three months (February, March, April) Food consumption is likely to worsen more so in pastoral areas like Tiaty due to limited access to food as market operations have been interrupted by conflict. Household in pastoral areas are expected to employ more coping strategies to overcome food shortages. Water availability and access will be stressed as the high temperatures being experienced in the County will increase the evaporation of water resources from surface based open sources. Maize prices will remain below the LTA apart from the pastoral areas while terms of trade will be unfavorable in areas experiencing insecurity challenges due to low livestock prices and high food prices. Malnutrition cases in the County are expected to remain stable other than pockets of pastoral areas where the rates are likely to rise. Household stocks will remain stable and sustain the County up to the onset of the next rainfall season. Household incomes are likely to decline with the re-introduction of the pre COVID-19 tax rates hence less money to purchase food and non-food items. Food security outlook (May, June, July) Livestock body condition is expected to be good due to the availability of good forage occasioned by the long rains season hence an increase in milk production is expected. Household stocks will be lower than normal pending replenishment from the long rains harvest while water resources in terms of access and availability will be normal as a result of water source recharge from the long rains. Livestock and cereal prices are likely to be normal across the County as markets shall have resumed normal operations after restoration of security in conflict prone areas. Sanitation and hygiene will likely be compromised around areas bordering the lakes due to flooding. Crop performance is expected to be good due to the forecasted normal long rains but the gains might be reversed if another wave of locust invasion was to materialize. Household incomes are likely to improve due to the expected better market prices for both crops and livestock which will lead to an improvement in the terms of trade. Food consumption at the household will be good due to improved household incomes and crop yield while water consumption will be normal to above normal following recharge of water sources. Milk consumption is expected to be normal following improvement in milk production and therefore causing a reduction in malnutrition incidents in the County. 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classifications The phase classification for the County is stressed (IPC PHASE 2). Some populations in pastoral livelihood zone that are facing insecurity challenges are likely are likely to fall into crisis due to challenges of food access, though may not meet the threshold to classify the area under phase 3. 5.1.2 Summary of finding The onset of the short rains season was early in the first dekad of October while the distribution in terms of time and space was poor to fair. Amounts received were near normal with the western and Northern parts of the County receiving more than 100 percent of their normal rains while southern and eastern parts received less than 100 percent of their normal rains. The County is facing security challenges mostly in Tiaty Sub County which has affected market operations and other service delivery. Area under acreage for maize declined slightly for both rain fed and irrigated agriculture due to depressed season while household stocks are above the long-term average due to the carry overs from the long rains harvest. Forage conditions are good apart from the pastoral livelihood zone where they are in poor to fair conditions while TLUs are lower than LTAs but higher than what was recorded in the previous assessment. Milk production is normal other than in pastoral areas where it is below normal while milk prices are above the long term means across all the livelihood zones. No major livestock disease outbreak was reported. Cases of market interruptions have been reported in pastoral areas that are currently facing security challenges but in other parts of the County, market operations are normal. Water access and availability is stable although in pastoral areas, return trekking distances are above normal with available water in surface based open sources being less than 50 percent. The terms of trade are stable and above the long term means due to the prevailing price stability in cereals and livestock. Food consumption score is acceptable across the livelihood zones while water consumption is normal. Milk consumption is below normal while milk prices are above the LTAs. Household are applying normal coping strategies although households in pastoral and agro pastoral are applying more coping strategies in comparison to other areas. Food consumption score is acceptable across the County while milk consumption is below normal. Water consumption at household level is normal while malnutrition cases are low and stable according to MUAC data. The overall county IPC classification is in phase two. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking County Predominant Livelihood security rank (1-6) Main food security threat Contributing factors Tiaty Conflict Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition High food prices Market interruptions Disruption of transport services Low livestock prices Livestock diseases Poor access to extension services Baringo South Irrigated Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Livestock diseases Displacement of populations Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition Baringo North Agropastoral Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Displacement of populations Human wildlife conflict Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition Mogotio Agropastoral Poor water quality Fair forage conditions Pasture harvesting and conservation Baringo Centra Mixed Farming Functional markets Better access roads Availability of green vegetables and fruits Eldama Ravine Mixed Farming Stable farm produce Good forage conditions Very Good (5-6) Good (4) Fair (3) Poor (1-2) 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions There are no ongoing food interventions for now. 5.2.2 Nonfood interventions Agriculture sector Sub County Intervention Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo South, Baringo North, Tiaty West, Baringo Central Resilient building program households invaded DL- Supply inputs (Seeds, Fertilizer, Pond Liners, Kitchen Garden materials Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman, Sacho, Ewalel ChapChap, ChuroAmaya, TangulbeiKor ossi, Mukutani, Mochongoi 3,275 County Government of Baringo, Forest Action Network (FAN) Restoratio livelihood destroyed by DL 2.3 M Novembe February Baringo South Lining Sandai Irrigation scheme Mochongoi National Irrigation Authority Increased area under irrigated agricultur Baringo north expansion of Kiboi irrigation scheme Barwessa Ministry of agriculture and national government Improved supply 2013- Youth Business youth Groups County Government Increase engageme Youth in Agribusin Nutrition Sensitive and Utilization initiatives 25,000 WFP, SHA, County Government of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Increased household nutrition stability in security 300 M Livestock sector Sub County Intervention Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo North Livestock upgrading 600HH RPLRP, Increased productio Aug2020 -onwards Tiaty Capacity strengthenin g to Youth groups communities 1,200 Resilience building to through youth 16.8M Jan,2021 pasture, beekeeping and trainings County-wise Provision of pasture seeds 200HH Pasture availabilit during drought period July,202 presently Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio, 2,500Kg Increased income and food Sept, Tiaty Provision of beehives 3,000HH Boost livestock Health On-going Baringo North Vaccination against CCPP, PPR, 2000HH RPLRP Improve communit livelihood gointg Countywide Capacity building Farmers and staff. 1,000HH BCG(MOA Infirmed staff farmers practices Through Water sector Countywide Water trucking Institutions On going Countywide rehabilitation 380HH KRCS, UNCEF On going Countywide COVID-19 - Tanks Installations positioning BCG ADS Church AID Partially Complete Countywide Construction of New water Projects 1560HH BCG, NG, On going Countywide n of BHs 2155 HH RCS, WV going Countywide Drilling and Equipping of 2620 HH going Countywide Capacity building water management Catchment protection 2130 HH PLRRP, UNCEF On going Health and Nutrition Building the capacity CHVs caregivers on Kolowa Lokis Wards in Tiaty West Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 15,000 FSK and Support formation of new M2MSG and CMSG, and monthly meetings of M2MSG Ptikii, Kreese Chepturu CUs Tiaty West Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 15,000 2021 April FSK and IMAM surge strengthening monitoring admission in health facilities and update of the dash board 16 facilities in Tiaty Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 50,000 going UNICEF, Strengthen Timely monthly requisition of nutrition commodities for treatment severe malnutrition counties-120 health facilities offering IMAM Severely Malnouris children below years 100,000 SCNC, Nutrition sensitive activities- g Household Nutrition security Establishmen t of Kitchen gardens and small animal raring promote dietary diversificatio Tiaty, Baringo, south, Central, North Mogotio Pregnant, Lactating mothers children below years 100,000 Upscaling routine deworming facilities and ECDs -- Baringo County children below years 2,200,000 80,000 UNICEF, uzazi facilities, outreaches and ECD and through Malezi bora weeks-June every year Supplementat Strengthen management diarrheal diseases health facilities children below years 867,000 75,000 routine UNICEF Management Acute Malnutrition (IMAM 100 health facilities Strengthen access treatment of malnutrition All 100 IMAM facilities Children below years 22,000,000 30,000 National, UNICEF 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Population in need of food assistance Sub-County security rank (Worst to best) Main food security threat Contributing factors Proportion in need of Immediate assistance () Tiaty Conflict Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition High food prices Market interruptions Disruption of transport services Low livestock prices Livestock diseases Poor access to extension services 25-30 Baringo South Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Livestock diseases Displacement of populations Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition 10-15 Baringo North Floods (Rising waters of the lake) Conflict Displacement of populations Human wildlife conflict Disruption of livelihoods Poor forage Poor water quality and quantity Malnutrition 10-15 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions Agriculture sector recommendations Sub County Intervention beneficiar Implementers Impacts in terms security Frame Countywide Inputs provision (Seeds, Kitchen Garden Materials, Fertilizers) including capacity building post-harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County Government and FAO, WFP Other development partners, Finances (Kshs million) Staff County wide Value addition produce cereals (Maize, Sorghum and Millet) through milling fortification of flour Market linkages Mogoti Mariga Tenges WFP and County Government Baringo Staff, Groups identifie support Countywide Enhance asset creation households especially ponds and water pans production especially Kitchen Gardening National Government, County Government and development partners Finances (Kshs 200 Million) Staff Countywide Enhance irrigated Agriculture by conducting analysis crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes canaling National Government, County Government and development partners Finances (Kshs 200 Million) Staff Livestock sector recommendations -BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty(LSD, CCPP) -Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR National government and Development partners -May, Tiaty, BNorth(LS -Disease surveillance 270,000 goats Mar,202 1-June, Countywide Establishment strategic livestock feed reserves; ward level 3 in Tiaty, Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio 4,500HH Countywide harvesting and baling machinery 41,500HH Countywide Provision COVID-19 control facilities masks, water washing tanks 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Onwards related sanitizers -COVID-19 - sensitization at markets Water sector interventions Countywide 15 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and replacement of pumping units 2480HH KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, months Countywide Stock piling of Fast-Moving Spares 18 No. community water supplies 1,260 HHs areas KRCS, UNCEF, NDMA 300,000 months Countywide Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection Communit Water supplies KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NDMA months Countywide Supply Water treatment equipments water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc 3,000HHs KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NDMA Months Countywide Water trucking to vulnerable Institutions Communities 40-60 Institutions KRCS, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION USAID, NEMA, NDMA, WFP Months Health Sector interventions Pastoral and agropastoral Zones screening 50 sites County department health services, KRCS, UNICEF Catholic mission, 1,500,000 1 year East Pokot, Baringo North, Integrated medical outreaches 30 sites County department health services, KRCS, UNICEF, 5,000,000 1 year Marigat Mogotio Action catholic, NDMA pastoral and pastoral Zones Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs chemicals County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID 3,000,000 1 year All pastoral agropastoral Dissemination of health and nutrition messages the community County County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID 4,000,000 200,000 1 year Tiaty East, East Pokot, Marigat, Baringo, North, Mogotio and Baringo central Nutrition sensitive interventions- scale-up 18 wards County department health services, WFP, Self Help Africa (SHA) 10,0000,00 2,000,00 1 year imam surge in 40 health facilities Implement imam surge Tiaty East, West, Baringo North and South County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTIONAID, WVK, NDMA 6,000,000 1,500,00 1 year Pastoral and agropastoral zones Trained caregivers on family MUAC 11 sentinel sites County department health services, UNICEF, KRCS, ACTION WVK, NDMA 3,000,000 1 year",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2019.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2019 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG) February, 2020 The 2019 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance was above normal. Some off season rains were also received in January. The main drivers of food insecurity were livestock diseases, conflict and malaria outbreak. Food stocks are available with the bulk of it being held at the household level. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by good livestock body condition, near normal milk production as well as high livestock prices. Terms of trade are good mostly for pastoral households. Markets are functional and are well stocked with the basic household items though Barwessa market was closed due to quarantine measures. Conflict tension may lead to market disruptions in pastoral areas. Water access and availability for both household and livestock consumption is good. Return trekking distances and waiting time are lower than the long term means. Water consumption per person per household is above long term means across all the livelihoods and is 20 to 30 litres on average. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral areas at three percent. Generally, a proportion of three (3), 21 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption respectively. There was an upsurge of malaria cases by 56 percent in the month of January compared to the previous month of December 2019. Normal coping strategies are being employed. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased marginally in the month of January probably due to upsurge of malaria cases. Baringo County is classified in Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC Phase Two (Stress, IPC Phase 2) while the irrigated, agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase One). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 2 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 4 1.1. County Background ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.2. Objectives of the Assessment .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3. Methodology and Approach ............................................................................................................ 5 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY...................................... 5 2.1. Rainfall Performance ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2. InsecurityConflict .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................................... 6 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ............................................ 6 3.1. Availability ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1. Crop production ............................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2. Cereal stocks.................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1.3. Livestock production ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. Access ............................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.1. Market operations ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.2. Terms of Trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3. Income sources ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4. Water access and availability ....................................................................................................... 15 3.2.5. Food consumption ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.6. Coping strategy ............................................................................................................................ 17 3.3. Utilization .................................................................................................................................... 17 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ....................................................................................... 19 3.5. Education..................................................................................................................................... 20 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ................................................................................................. 21 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions ................................................................................................................. 21 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) ............................................................................ 22 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) ............................................................................. 22 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS ..................................................................................... 22 5.1. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2. Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................................... 23 5.3. Recommended interventions .......................................................................................................... 27 5.3.1.Non- Food Interventions ............................................................................................................... 27 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the Assessment The main objective of the 2019 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains season of 2019 in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2019 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution Figure 1: Propotion of Population Per Livelihoods Mixed Farming Pastoral Agro Pastoral Irrigated Crops Figure 2 Rainfall performance 1.3 Methodology and Approach The 2019 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th to 14th February 2020. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact- finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was early in the first dekad of October compared to the normal of second dekad of October. On average, the County received a total of 476.68 mm of rainfall against the long term average of 179.68 mm. Most parts of the county received 201-350 percent of normal rains while a few pockets received 141-200 percent of normal short rains (Figure 2). Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was good. The rains ceased normally in the third dekad of December. The county did receive off season rains during the third dekad of January 2020. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Cases of resources based conflict emerged in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North sub county, ChuroAmaya and Loyamorock wards in Tiaty Sub County were reported. This created some tension in the affected areas and threatening normal functioning of the markets. However, the conflict only lasted for 3 weeks and had since been resolved by the local administrations. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards Livestock disease outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Baringo North Sub County leading to closure of livestock markets such as Barwesa. This affected market access and subsequently affecting household incomes. A swarm of locusts was also reported in Tirioko ward, Tiaty Constituency in mid-January 2020. However, the impact of the locusts on food security is still insignificant. Floods and excess rains also interfered with farm preparation activities leading to less acreage being put under crop. Some crops were also swept away by floods. Outbreak of malaria cases in January also affected food utilization in the county. 3. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed (major crops) Short rains in Baringo are critical for food and Nutrition security as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and helps in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. The short rains of 2019 in the County were above the LTA average. Most of the farmers did not plant during the short rains season and this reduced the area under rain-fed crop farming, this was as a result of extended June-July-August rains which overlapped with the onset of the short rains, hence farmers didnt prepare their farms on time. For instance, area under maize and beans was 40 percent and 96 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Acreage under maize went down as the early onset coupled with intense rains interrupted land preparation. The crop in the field is stable although some has been affected by floods especially in Kerio Valley, Barwessa ward where 86 Hectares of maize were destroyed by rains. Close monitoring of the continuing rains is being done Table 1: Area under Rain-fed Crop Production Area planted during 2019 Short rains season Long Term Average (5 year) area planted during the Short rains season (Ha) 2019 Short rains season production (90 kg bags)Tons ProjectedActual Long Term Average (5 year) production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags)Tons 1. Maize 3,150 8,300 2. Beans 7,988 13,491 4. Irish Potatoes 1,467 1,289 13,313 13,020 5. Cowpeas 6. Green grams In addition, there was an outbreak of desert locust which invaded Kamurio, Maron, Rotu and Tiaty hills in Tiaty Sub County. Other areas where the outbreak was reported included sibilo, Bartabwa and Kuikui in Baringo North sub County, and Koriema in Baringo South Sub County. The damage caused was negligible on both crops and pasture as control measures were undertaken. The County is in high alert for any outbreak of desert locusts for appropriate control measures to be taken. The projected short rains maize and beans production reduced as compared to the long term average production due to reduction in acreage planted as well as skeptism by farmers about the reliability of the short rains. Irrigated Agriculture Table 2: Area under irrigated Agriculture planted during 2019 Short rains season (Ha) Long Term Average area planted during the Short rains season 2019 Short rains season production (90 kg bags) ProjectedActual Long Term Average production during the Short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 2,813 1,340 Tomatoes Water melons The area under maize increased by 141 percent of the LTA (Table 2). This was due to recharge of water sources and most farmers who didnt plant under rain fed opted to plant using irrigation water hence the increased acreage. The overlap of the June-August rains with the short rains also favored irrigation farming. The production of maize was 210 percent of the long term average. There were some fungal and bacterial diseases that affected most of the tomatoes and black night shade in the field. 3.1.2. Cereal stocks Table 3: Main Cereal stocks in the County Commodity Maize Sorghum TOTAL Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 607,721 593,945 1,825 710,905 716,762 Traders 76,882 102,373 1,356 2,465 1,368 2,465 Millers 26,302 20,444 2,322 1,288 Food AidNCPB Farmer stocks were above the long term average (Table 3) by two percent and this was attributed to cumulative effects of rainfall performance of the short rains and long rains seasons of 2019. The bulk of the stocks are held in Eldama Ravine Sub County. Traders stocks are below long term averages (LTA) and are not moving due to low demand in the market. The sorghum stocks held by farmers are 248 percent above LTA as the rains were very favorable for the crop. Farmers are continuing to sell their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline in the next three months. Currently households in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones have limited stocks compared to those in the mixed and irrigated areas. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are also depending on traderslocal markets for their supplies. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sale their produce within two months. 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species kept in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The short rains in Baringo County are very important in pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum and millet straw not to forget the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Table 4 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Livestock Contribution to Income and Food Livelihood zone contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Pasture and Browse Condition Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho od Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration last (Months) Factors access Condition Projected Duration last (month) Factors access Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral tensions tensions The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones (Table 5). The duration pasture is expected to last three months as compared to normal 2-3 months while browse is expected to last four months compared to 2-3 months normally. There is limitation to forage in Saimo Soi and Kapedo as result of security challenges. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is currently good across all livelihood zones (Table 6). The condition is attributed to good quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain if the present rains continue. The livestock body condition may affect livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed farming Irrigated cropping pastoral Pastoral Birth Rates The general birth rates were three percent across all livelihood zones as a result favorable conditions. This is attributed to good conception enabled by adequate forage of high quality. The deviations were due to levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) The average tropical livestock holding was 3.08 for poor households and 4.9 in medium households (Table 7). The present TLUs are compared to three (3) in poor and 4.7 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Table 7: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Average Milk Availability Milk availability slightly increased and was attributed to improved forage quality, and reduction in trekking distance (Table 8). The increases resulted in decrease in milk prices to Ksh.30-50 in mixed and irrigated cropping zones, while in agro-pastoral and pastoral zones, milk retailed at Ksh 60 per litre. Some households in the pastoral livelihoods zones were still getting milk from mixed farming zones. Milk consumption was 2-2.5 litres as compared to 2-3 litres long term average. Table 8: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per HH(Lts) consumption HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Current LTA Current Current LTA Mixed farming 30-50 Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pastoral Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani (Table 9). The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 80-90 percent but are still being recharged with the presence of off-season rains. The trekking distance was stable at 3-7 kilometers. The watering frequency remained constant across all livelihood zones adequate water availability due to enhanced rains. Access to water from the lakes was limited by crocodile hazards. Table 9: Water for Livestock Livelihood Sources Return trekking distance(Km) Expected duration Watering frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 pastoral water pans, Boreholes, rivers, streams Streams, water pans, Boreholes 2-3 months 3 months Pastoral holes, water pans, rivers Water- pans, holes, rivers 2-3 months 3 months Livestock Migration There were no reported migrations due to pasture and water deficiency. However, insecurity tensions between Baringo North with Tiaty Sub County on one hand and Tiaty Sub County with Turkana County have caused households to move to the interior of their sub-counties. Cases of livestock migration are not expected in the next three months due to the prevailing favorable water and forage conditions. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The notifiable disease reported was Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Barwessa Ward (Table 10). In the process, quarantine was imposed leading to a closure of all the markets in the ward. The other diseases reported in the county were normal in their normal ranges. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 10: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures taken(Vaccinations Baringo Central Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Chicken 100 chicken Endemic Salawatenges Cattle No deaths Re-current Tiaty Sub-county-wise Goats Sub-county-wise Sheep and goats Loyamorok Cattle camels Kolloa Cattle 3 cattle Eldama Ravine Majimazuri mumberes,Koiba Cattle 6 cases reported No action Abortions Ravine ward Cattle 8 cases reported Ravine,Perkerra, L.kwen Cattle 15 cases reported Baringo south Kimorok Goats Heart water Illchamus Goats 40 goats Mochongoi Cattle No deaths reported Mange Marigat Goats No deaths reported Lumpy Disease Marigat Goats No deaths reported Baringo north Sub-county-wise (Endemic) Goats 17 goats Endemic Saimo Soi, Barwessa Shoats 16 goats 23,450 vaccinated Bartabwa Cattle No deaths 23,050 vaccinated Saimo soi, Barwessa Cattle No deaths Quarantine Barwessa Cattle No deaths Re-current Sheep pneumonia Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman 9 sheep Re-current Sibilo Shoats 28 cattle Helminthia Sub-countywise Shoats Anaplasmo Saimo soi Cattle Rabies Kabartonjo, Saimo Kipsaraman No deaths 325 vaccinated Anthrax Kbo, Saimo Kipsaraman, Bartabwa Cattle 20 deaths 5026 vaccinated E.C.Fever Cattle 13 deaths 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Market operations were normal albeit for Barwesa market, which was disrupted due to quarantine as a result of FMD outbreak. The major food commoditiesstaples were available in the markets from the previous seasons harvest. Supplies from other markets outside the County were also stable. Markets play a crucial role towards achieving accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income. Maize Prices The current average price for kilogram maize was at Ksh. 47, a marginally increase of four percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46 (Figure 4). The price was stable in in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.49 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.33 per Kg. This can be attributed by the decreasing stocks at household levels and increased stocks at local retailers. Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent at Kshs.111.2 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 124. (Figure 4). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of beans in the irrigated livelihood zone and influx of the commodity in the pastoral livelihood zones as the beans come from the neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet County.Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.125 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 Figure 3. Maize Prices Figure 4. Beans Prices Goat prices The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at KSh. 2,917 as compared to the previous month at KSh. 3,065 (Figure This goat price was above the LTA by percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at KSh. 3,667 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 500. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions and limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. 3.2.2. Terms of Trade The terms of trade decreased by eight percent in comparison to the previous month of January at 66.9 to currently 61.7 (Figure 6). This was attributed to slight decrease in goat prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 96.5 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 55.6 3.2.3. Income Sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 11 below. Table 11: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing Figure 5. Goat Prices Figure 6: Terms of trade 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Generally, the water sources are mainly concentrated in the mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, in the mixed farming and irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the water pans across the county in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 60-70 percent normally. The available water is likely to last 3-4 months as compared to 2-3 months normally. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity except for Keriwok and Cheptuya water pans that have low water levels and low recharges respectively as a result of their structural designs and facility locations. The water is expected to last 3-4 months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are stable but on slight reducing trend due to high temperatures, utilization and siltation levels. Currently, 90 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns for example Kreeze borehole, Kirim borehole, Ngoron, Kapkun borehole, Silonga borehole and water quality challenges like Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima along the western rift valley of Baringo county (Table 11). Table 12: Major Water Sources Ward Livelihoo d zone Water Source (Three major sources) No. of Normal Operatio No. of Current Operati Sources Projecte Duration (Operati Sources) Normal Duratio n that water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Pastoral 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Bh, Kirim Bh , Ngoron, Kapkun BH, Silonga BH 2.Water Months 3 4 Months 90 - 3.Spring 3 - 4 Months 4 5 Months 70 - 80 Agro - Pastoral 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable 2. Water 3 4 Months 3 4 Months 95 - Over 6 70 - 80 Distance to Water Sources The average return trekking distances to domestic water sources were slightly below normal at 3- 4.5 km in pastoral and 3-3.5 km in agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 3.5 5.5 kms. The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5Km in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones due adequate water availability as result of good rainfall performance. Waiting Time at the Source The current water status is projected to be stable in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal season last year. The waiting time at the source in mixed farming livelihood zone is between 2-3 minutes which is slightly below normal while in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas it was between 2-4 minutes which is below normal. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free. The water vendors sold water depending on the distances covered but on average it was sold at Ksh 20 per 20 litres jerican. Water consumption per person per day was slightly above normal at 25 30 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20-25 litres in agro pastoral and pastoral zone compared to normal (Table 12). This was attributed to adequate water availability across all livelihood zones. Table 13: Return Distances to Water Sources, Cost of Water, Waiting time and Consumption Springs 4Months months Mixed Farming 1. Bore Holes Over 6 Months Over 6 months stable Springs Over 6 Months Over 6 Months 80 - 90 3.Rivers Over 6 Months Months 90 - 95 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 3months Over 6 months 95 -100 2.Shallo w Wells 4months Over 6 months stable Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps Over 3 Months stable Ward livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use (Km) Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5 - 6 3 4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Agro Pastoral 3.5 5.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Mixed Farming 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 15 - 20 25 - 30 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 25 - 30 3.2.5. Food Consumption According to the NDMA bulletin, 2.8 percent of the households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 7). The proportion households borderline consumption was 31.7 in pastoral, 13.3 in fishing and 3.3 in agro pastoral livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 1.9, 23 and 75.1 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones was stable as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 3.2.6. Coping strategy The average coping strategy index was 13.88 a decrease compared to last month at 14.22 (Figure 8). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.2 followed by pastoral at 14.3. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4. The decrease in the coping strategies was due to availability of food at households level across all livelihood zones 3.3. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria have shown a declining trend in 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five. While in general population there is a decline in diarrhoea. As illustrated in Figure 9 the three most common diseases for under five children, Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria have shown a declining trend in Figure 7: Food Consumption Score Figure 8: Coping Strategy Score Figure 9: Morbidity for under five (5yrs) 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five, while the diarrhea cases have increased. Figure 10 shows malaria increase by 56 percent down from 2,980 cases in December 2019 to 6,775 cases in January 2020 among the general population. The increase may be attributed to enhanced rainfall performance which created a conducive environment for breeding of mosquitoes. 3.3.2. Immunization Coverage and Vitamin A supplementation average county immunization coverage between July and December 2019 increased to 63.1percent, up from 60.1 percent same period in 2018. The current coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to increase in integrated outreaches improvement in increase in immunizing sites in the county. Vitamin A supplementation for the county between June and December 2019 indicated an increase. Four out of seven sub counties achieved percentage of the national target of 80 percent as shown in Figure 11. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of Early Childhood Development (ECD) and Community Health Units in Baringo Central (89), Baringo north (92.9), Mogotio (85.6) sub counties. 3.3.3. Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity The nutrition status of the children under five years of age had marginally improved with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 20 percent, as compared to the previous month at 21 percent (Fig 12). However, the upsurge of malaria cases in irrigated livelihood zone, Komolion, Ribko and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones saw higher rates of malnutrition. Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.8 and 23.64 respectively. Figure 10: Morbidity for General Population Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South sub counties respectively. The proportion of households using soap and water for hand washing in Tiaty sub-county was 24.7 percent while in Baringo north and Baringo south sub- counties the proportion was 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 43.6 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.14 percent (Table 13). Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. About 20 30 percent of households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Kapkuikui, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaani reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of inadequate toilet coverage and low levels of personal hygiene. Table 14: Latrine coverage Sub County Latrine coverage Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio Baringo North East Pokot Tiaty East Baringo County Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 15: Food Security Indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, February, 2020 Long rains assessment, July, 2019 of maize stocks held by households Livestock body condition (Cattle) Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral Fair-Good Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Good -Fair Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Water consumption (litres per person per day Agro Pastoral 20-25 Agro Pastoral 10-15 Irrigated cropping 25-30 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed Farming 25-30 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 20-25 Pastoral-all species Price of maize (per kg) Ksh 55kg Distance to grazing Agro Pastoral Agro Pastoral 1-2km Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farmin Mixed Farmin 1 km Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species 3-4km Terms of trade (pastoral zone) Coping strategy index County-13.9 Agropastoral-23.2 Pastoral-14.3 Irrigated Cropping-4 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-27 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-4. Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline 3.4. Education 3.5.1. Enrolment There was an increase of three, five and 10 percent in enrolment in ECDE, Primary and Secondary levels respectively at end of January Term I within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out in term 1. Secondary schools enrolment increased due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and 100 percent transition policy. Table 16: Enrolment Term 111 2019 Term I 2020 Enrolment Girls Total Girls Total 25,352 24,282 Primary Secondary 3.5.2. Participation The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECDE centres increased in Term I 2020 compared to term III 2019 because of timely disbursement of Home Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) funds to primary schools. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys. 3.5.3. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school due to delays in delivery of food. 3.5.4. School Meals Programme A total of 260 public primary schools with 62,150 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMPLRPNON LRP); 115 schools with 20,315 pupils are under Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in Table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This Programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 17: School Meals Program 4. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions According to the meteorological department, the long rains season of March-April- May will be above normal with an early onset. Forage conditions are expected to remain good due to the above normal rains that were received in the short rains season. The off season rains will ensure that the forage conditions will be good up to the next season. Livestock prices will remain relatively above normal due to good body condition. Milk production will remain above normal up to the nest rainfall season. There will be minimal livestock disease outbreak with minimal impacts on markets. According to NDMA bulletin, cereal prices will decline marginally but remain stable as the harvested crops starts entering markets. The water situation will remain good. Return distances from water points will remain below normal while waiting time at water source will be shorter compared to the previous normal seasons. Sub Counties No. Of Schools HGSMPLRPNON Total No. of Beneficiaries Girls Girls Girls Baringo Central 3,392 3,340 3,392 3,340 Mogotio 14,280 13,913 14,280 1,3913 Marigat 6,610 6,415 6,610 6,415 Ravine Baringo North 6,980 7,220 6,980 7,220 Tiaty 11,209 9,106 11,209 9,106 Sub Total 31,262 30,888 11,209 9,106 42,471 39,994 Total 62,150 20,315 82,465 The normal crop calendar will remain in force with farmers planting on time for the oncoming long rains season. There will be minimal crop pest interference. Minimal cases of malaria outbreak will be reported in some pockets of the county due to prevailing above normal wet conditions. 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) Food consumption is likely to improve in the next three months. This is attributed to improving livestock productivity whereby purchasing power of households will be enhanced thus being in a position to access food. There are food stocks within the households and traders which likely to last up to the next season. Nutrition status of children under five years will improve in the next three months. This is due to improved milk production and consumption at the household level. The livestock body condition is expected to remain good and stable thus ensuring enhanced milk production. The proportion of households applying general coping strategies is expected to reduce in the next three months. This is due to adequate current food stocks held at households and traders thus there will be very minimal cases of food intake gaps Irrigated cropping livelihood zone is expected to apply non coping strategies while pastoral livelihood zone will be applying minimal stressed coping strategies. Mortality rates are expected to remain static for the next three months 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) Most households are expected to have acceptable food consumption. This is due to the expected good yield from the long rains season as well as improved livestock production and productivity. Good livestock body condition will translate to better livestock prices leading to improved purchasing power mostly for pastoral households. Nutrition status will be normal. Cases of malnutrition are expected to be very minimal as milk production and consumption will be normal to above normal. Majority of the households across all livelihood zones are expected to apply non coping strategies in accessing food. Mortality rates are expected to slightly decline 5. CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1. Conclusions 5.1.1. Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase two (Stressed). The irrigated agriculture, agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase one (IPC phase 1) while the pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC phase 2 (Stressed). 5.1.2. Summary of Findings The performance of the short rains season was above normal compared to the previous seasons. The onset of the season was early while both spatial and temporal distributions were good. The county also encountered off season rains in January. Forage conditions were above normal, resulting in improved livestock body condition. There was improved livestock productivity in terms of body condition and milk production. Livestock disease outbreak was minimal with foot and mouth outbreak being reported in Baringo North Sub County. Acreage under maize declined compared to long term average in rain fed agriculture, leading to 67 percent decline in normal crop harvest. The county had sufficient maize stocks with households having stocks that were above long term averages. Water situation was above normal compared to long term means across the livelihood zones. Return trekking distances and waiting time were less than normal. The water sources are likely to last longer than usual. Nearly all the open water sources were recharged to their full capacity. Water consumption per person per day was above normal across all the livelihood zones. Markets were functional and were well stocked with food and non-food commodities. Barwessa market in Baringo North Sub County was closed due to quarantine measures. Livestock prices remained above long term averages while on the other hand, cereals particularly maize exhibited a declining trend. Terms of trade were favorable, translating to higher purchasing power especially for pastoral households. School enrolment and participation improved in term 1 compared to the previous term across all the levels of learning. Majority of the households had acceptable food consumption across all the livelihoods. Household employed normal coping strategies in accessing food. There was an upsurge of malaria cases mostly in Tiaty Sub County, a factor that affected food utilization especially for children. Latrine coverage was reported to be very low in the pastoral areas compared to the national average. 5.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 18: Sub County ranking Sub County Food Security Rank (Worst to Best) (1-10) Main food security threat (if any) Tiaty Foot and mouth, LSD, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, insecurity tension, locust invasion, market interruption Baringo South Floods, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, malnutrition, insecurity Baringo North Foot and mouth disease, malaria upsurge, quarantine Mogotio Minimal malnutrition cases, floods, foot and mouth Baringo Central Eldama Ravine 5.2. Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1. Food interventions There is no general food distribution program in the county. However, several schools in the county are benefitting from school feeding program. 5.2.2. Non-Food Interventions Table 19: Nonfood interventions Intervention Specific location Number of beneficiaries Implementation timeframe Implementation stakeholders Female HEALTH SECTOR Vitamin A supplementation health facilities, selected 2,200,000 47,200 47,545 Routine MOH supported by UNICEF, WVK Afya uzazi Supplementation health facilities 867,000 37,000 38,000 Routine County department of health Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 231,000,000 Routine County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WVK and WFP Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods health facilities communi ty units 52,600 54,892 County department of health supported by Afya uzazi Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women health facilities County department of health supported by WVK, UNICEF Deworming health facilities 33,683 Food Fortification Blanket supplementary feeding County department of health supported Cash transfer WVKWFP National government Food Aid National government Outreaches County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Mass screening County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Health education, passing of health messages County department of health services, AGRICULTURE Creation of productive assets by households- Especially Farm ponds 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National Government and County Government of Baringo, Development partners Post-Harvest Practices(Inputs supply and construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine ALL(Pro vided Hermetic bags) Cereal stores build at Bartolim o and Kewango 8.5 Million 2019-2020 County Government Soil Fertility management 0.6 M 2017-2019 Baringo County Government- Agriculture Nutrition and Food Utilization initiatives 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo County Government- Agriculture LIVESTOCK SECTOR Livestock upgrading Baringo North 500HH Jun2019- onwards Commercial off- 16.5M 1,200 Dec 2019 Provision of pasture seeds 500Kg Baringo south, Baringo north, Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio, 200HH Aug,2019-Oct, MOALF, Of NFIs to youth groups 500HH 300HH Jul,2019-Jan, Partners Provision of beehives Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Mogotio Baringo Central 3,000HH July 2019-Oct Vaccination against PPR,Rabies and Baringo Central Baringo North 2000HH August 2019 BCG RPLRP Funding of farmer groups(C.I.Gs) ERavine Baringo Central Mogotio Baringo South 500HH Jul,2019- Jan,2020 BCG KSCAP Disease surveillance 50,000TLU Jul, 2019- Jan,2020 Capacity building of Farmers counties 1,000HH Throughout BCG(MOALF) Partners WATER SECTOR General water supply and BHs rehabilitation Commun 380HH On going BCG, NG, Construction of New water Projects Whole County 1560HH 1year BCG, NG, Drilling and Whole 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, Equipping Strategic 10 No. County Capacity building on water management and Catchment protection Whole County 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1. Non- Food Interventions countyWar Intervention Number of beneficiari Proposed implementer Required resources Available resources frame HEALTH SECTOR Mass screening 80 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 1,500,000 150,000 April East Pokot, Baringo North, Marigat mogotio Integrated medical outreaches 40 sites County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission 5,000,000 1,600,000 April May,Jun Purchase and distribute water treatment drugs County department of health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, 3,000,000 1,000,000 Passing health and nutrition messages to the community 57 CUs County department of health 4,000,000 1,200,000 April services, BBC midia action All IMAM implementin g health facilities Strengthen LMIS reporting and request 100 health facilities County department of health services, 900,000 April Tiaty East, East Pokot, Marigat, Baringo, North, Mogotio and Baringo central Agri-Nutrition 57 Cus County nt of health services, media action 10,000,00 2,00,000 community units Sensitize CHEWS and CHVs on nutrition technical module 57 Cus County nt of health services, 1,500,000 Selected health facilities (40) all over the county Implement IMAM surge 40 health facilites County nt of health services, , WVK 6,000,000 1,500,00 Selected Implement BFCI 30 health facilites County nt of health services, , WVK, uzazi 4,000,000 County Purchase and distribute fridge to new health facilities 25 Health facilities County nt of health services,, Uzazi 3,000,000 500,000 WATER SECTOR Community Water Supplies in pastoral and 18 No. Water Supply Rehabilitation upgrading Servicing and 2,480HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, months pastoral livelihood replacement of pumping units USAID, Institutions Communitie s in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral Zones Roof Water harvesting structures Institutions BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, USAID, months Community WS in Pastoral and pastoral Stock piling of Fast Moving Spares 20 No. community water supplies 1,260 HHs areas BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, 600,000 months Water supplies in Pastoral and Pastoral Zones Capacity Strengthening on WASH Water Management and Catchment protection 30 No. Community Water supplies BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, months pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Supply of Water treatment equipments like water purifiers, Pur, Aqua tabs etc 3,000HHs BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, Months Whole County Water Governance and Management Policy development Baringo County Water Resources Users BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, ACTED, ACTION AID, USAID, NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP Months pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Drilling and Equipping of strategic 12 No. BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas 1500HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 5 yrs pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Construction and Upgrading of 16 No. potential Low Cost Water Supplies 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 5 yrs pastoral and Construction of 4 2400HH BCG, NG, 1 -5Yrs agro pastoral Zones No. Small dams for domestic and irrigation water use RCS, WV, UNCEF, pastoral and agro pastoral Zones Capacity Strengthening on Wash Water ManagementResour ces Mobilization Conflict Resolution and Management and Catchment protection 50 No. Water Supplies BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, 1 - 5Yrs LIVESTOCK SECTOR -BNorth, Mogotio Tiaty(FMD) Tiaty, BNorth(LS -Vaccination against, FMD, LSD -Disease surveillance Countywid National government Development partners Feb,202 0-June, Tiaty Baringo North Baringo South Baringo Central Mogotio Reseeding of pasture 500HH RPLRP Partners April 2020 to Baringo North -Tiaty -Baringo - South Mogotio Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in Baringo North 2 in Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners 54.088 M Dec,201 county Hay harvesting and baling machinery 1 per sub-county 41,500HH RPLRP KCSAP Dec,202 AGRICULTURE SECTOR Inputs provision including capacity building on post-harvest and safe use of chemicals National Government, County Government development partners Finances (Kshs 10 million) Staff Enhance asset creation for National Government, County Finances (Kshs Staff households especially Farmponds and water pans for production Government development partners Million) Enhance irrigated Agriculture conducting Soil analysis and crops suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes Irrigation schemes National Government, County Government development partners Finances (Kshs 10 Million) Staff Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers to Schools and other institutions of Learning for Learning income generation and food and Nutrition security All Schools with farms Ministry of Education, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, County Government development partners Finances Million) Staff, Availabilit y of well fenced farms, Support of Extension through digifarm platform for Projects monitoring, effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages Communicati on companies, County Government Development partners Kshs 15 Million Staff",
        "Baringo_County_SRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), January 2022 The 2022 short rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2022. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October and characterized by uneven spatial distribution and poor temporal distribution. The cessation was normal in the third dekad of December. Insecurity tension resulting from competition for pastures and water was reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while endemic livestock diseases were reported across the county. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture and its projected yield were below the long-term average (LTA) while projected yield and acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA for beans, green grams and maize but less for tomatoes and water melons. Household maize stocks were below LTA by 31 percent. Forage conditions and livestock body condition for cattle were poor in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones. Milk production, consumption and prices were above LTA across all livelihood zones. Unusual livestock migrations were observed in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones triggering insecurity tensions. Market operations were normal though some were interrupted by insecurity incidents during the season under review. Livestock prices were below LTA while cereal prices were above LTA. Terms of trade were very poor with the Pastoral zone being the most affected. Water access and availability was poor as shown by increasing trekking distances to watering points, reduced water volumes, increased waiting time and reduced water discharge from boreholes. Household water consumption per person per day was below LTA across all livelihood zones and the water cost was above LTA across the county. Water quality is deteriorating at watering points due to congestion. The average county food consumption (FCS) score was Borderline at 35.2 with the Pastoral zone having the highest proportions of households with borderline and poor FCS of 50 and 19.2 percent respectively. The Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest coping strategy index (CSI) at 25.2 and 17.5 respectively. Tiaty sub county had the lowest latrine coverage and highest open defecation in the county while 70 percent of households in the county wash their hands at four critical times a day. There was a marginal decline in school enrolment for all levels of learning in term three compared to term two. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase three (Crisis) whereby Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones were in IPC phase three while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone was in IPC phase two (Borderline). The Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones were in IPC phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... ii 3.1.1 Crops production ............................................................................................................ 5 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock production ...................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4 Impact on availability ................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Market operations ......................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Market prices ................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Income sources ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.5 Water access and availability ....................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Food consumption ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2.7 Coping Strategy ............................................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .................................................................................. 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ............................................................ 21 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity............................................................................ 22 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene.................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Access ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.2 School feeding program ................................................................................................ 27 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity ................................................................. 29 5.1.1 Phase classification ....................................................................................................... 33 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................... 33 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ...................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 34 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 35 5.3.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 39 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 40 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 short rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2022 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 9th -27th January 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. Mixed Farming Marginal Mixed Farming Figure 1: Population by livelihoods This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal as it was observed during the first dekad of October. In the low land areas that comprises mostly Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, the amounts received were depressed, ranging from 51-75 and 76-90 percent of normal rains respectively. In the high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone, amounts received ranged from normal to slightly above normal (91-125 percent of normal). Rainfall distribution was extremely poor both in space and time. The peak of the season was observed during the first dekad of October and the second dekad of November. Cummulatively, the season had about three to five wet days, mostly in the highlands while spatial distribution was very poor as the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas hardly received any rains during the season under review. The cesation of the season was observed in the third dekad of December which was normal. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity incidents happening within the neighboring counties of Elgeyo Marakwet along the Kerio valley and Laikipia have been spilling over into Baringo, causing some tension. The affected areas are Tiaty West sub county and Arabal area in Baringo South Sub County. There have been some tension in Saimo Soi ward caused by migration of Pastoral communities in search of pasture and water. Local mechanisms such as peace meetings in Saimo soi and kerio valley and deployment of Kenya Police Reservist officers in Arabal have been put in place to forestall skirmishes among various communities that may arise due to competition for the scarce pastures and water resources. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High food commodity prices Food prices continued to be very high during the season under review. Most of the commodities including maize, beans and other pulses had their prices increasing by over 90 percent of their short term average and consequently affecting terms of trade. High farm input prices Prices of farm inputs were very high compared to the previous seasons thus making them unaffordable to the majority of farmers, a factor that contributed to reduced production. Figure 2: Rainfall performance Hazards Livestock diseases Sporadic cases of livestock diseases were observed across the livelihood zones and included lumpy skin disease, CCPP, foot and mouth, among others. Most of the cases were being reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The short rains in Baringo County play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and help to recharge water sources for irrigation. However, for the past four seasons, the County has received below-average rainy seasons (both long and short seasons), which has impacted negatively on crop production. The short rains of 2022 were below the long-term average and this coupled with high temperatures affected recharge of water sources for irrigation and the acreage under crop production. Although onset of short rains was normal, the distribution over space and time was very poor. The lack of rainfall has also led to reduced water levels in surface water sources, particularly in rivers used for irrigation. Some rivers have dried up completely and water pans are at less than 15 percent capacity. Crop production is a significant contributor of income and food in the county as shown by table Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Income Agro-Pastoral Maize Beans Finger millet Cowpeas Mixed Maize Beans Finger millet Irrigated Maize Tomatoes Water melons Rain fed agriculture The County received below-normal rains during the short rains season which could not support the proper growth of the crops. Due to delayed harvesting of the crop that was planted during the long rains season, many famers did not have enough time to till their land hence resulting in reduced acreage for rain fed crops. The crops in the fields were also affected adversely by the depressed rainfall season, resulting in reduced crop yield as shown in table two. Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Area planted during 2022 Short rains season (Ha) Long-term average (5 year) area planted during the short rains season (Ha) 2022 short rains season production (90 kg bags) Projected Long term average production (5 year) during the short rains season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,520 8,049 Beans 1,462 3,043 12,795 37,275 Irish Potato 1,630 2,234 20,280 32,330 The main crops planted during the 2022 short rains were maize, beans and Irish potatoes. The area planted for maize during the season under review was 37 percent of the long-term average (LTA) and its expected yield is 19 percent of the LTA. Similarly, for beans, the area planted during the season was 48 percent of the LTA and its projected production was expected to be 35 percent of LTA. However, for Irish potato, the area planted during the season was 73 percent of LTA and the projected production is 63 percent of the LTA. In conclusion the farmers will not have any significant harvest if the current hot temperatures continue. Irrigated crop production The area planted for beans, green grams and maize was higher than LTA while the acreage put under tomatoes and water melons was less than the LTA during the season under review (Table 3). The projected production was expected to be less than LTA except for beans and this was caused by reduced river flows which serves as a source of water for irrigation. Table 3: Irrigated Agriculture Area planted during the 2022 short rains season (ha) Long-term average (3 years) area planted during short rains season (ha) 2022 short rains season production (90 kg bagsMT) ProjectedActual Long-term average production (3 years) during short rains season (90 kg bagsMT) Beans Tomatoes Water Mellon Green Grams Maize The area planted for beans and Maize during the 2022 short rains season is 304 percent and 161 percent more than the LTA respectively while their projected yield was expected to be 119 and 120 percent of the LTA respectively. For Tomatoes, the area planted during the season was 92.3 percent of the LTA while the projected yield is 74 percent of LTA if the irrigation water is sustained. For watermelon, the area planted during the season was 63 percent of the LTA and the production was estimated to be 85 percent of the LTA. For Green Grams, the area planted during the season was 153 percent of LTA while the projected production is 112 percent of LTA and this was caused by the fact that most of the farmers planted the crop as a cash crop for income. The early planted crop has been harvested while those planted late were affected by reduced water levels in the rivers. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4 below indicates the stocks of different commodities (maize, rice, sorghum, and green gram) held by different groups in Baringo County. The groups include farmers, traders, millers, food assistance, and the National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB). The data also provides the current stocks and the stocks held in the long term average (LTA) for comparison. The variation in stocks held at each level was due to a combination of factors including changes in demand, supply, prices, and reduced production. Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize (Bags) Rice ( Kg ) Sorghum (Bags) Green gram (Bags) Current Current Current Current Farmers 428,677 628,340 2,294 2,518 Traders 86,151 73,879 23,420 20,000 Millers 29,436 13,602 Assistance 13,000 8,000 2,115 Total 544,634 716,471 36,780 28,350 2,794 2,920 Households: The stocks of maize held by farmers are 428,677 bags, which is 31 percent lower than the LTA of 628,340 bags this stocks are a carry-over from the previous season. However, farmers do not have any stocks of rice as the crop was not planted in the irrigation scheme. Sorghum stocks were below LTA while green grams stocks were above LTA. The reason for the reduced stocks especially of maize was because of poor harvests of the long rains, High cost of farm inputs and also farmers selling the crops to traders and millers. The stocks with the households are skewed with Eldama Ravine having 64 percent of the total stocks held by households. Traders: The stocks of maize held by traders are 86,151 bags, which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 73,879 bags. Traders also have 23,420 kgs of rice which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 20,000 kgs, 490 bags of sorghum which is 23 percent higher than the LTA of 396 bags and 150 bags of green gram which is 42 percent lower than the LTA of 260 bags. The traders are holding more stocks of maize and rice due to anticipation of higher demand in the market and also to take advantage of high prices. Millers: The stocks of maize held by millers are 29,436 bags, which is 117 percent higher than the LTA of 13,602 bags. However, millers do not have any stocks of rice and green gram but negligible quantity of sorghum. The high stocks held by millers may be due to an increase in price for maize flour hence more households consuming sorghum flour. NCPB: The National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB) does not have any stocks of maize, sorghum, and green gram but negligible amount of rice (2,115 Kgs). This could be due to a lack of surplus crops being sold to the NCPB and change of Government policy. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones there are no stocks. In the Irrigated livelihood zones the stocks can last one and half months. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The county is known to be long rains dependent for livestock production but the short rains are very important for complementing production of fodder and pastures (hay) for livestock as well as recharge of most water sources. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Contribution Income Mixed farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Pasture and browse conditions The present forage condition is fair in both Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to poor in both Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zones. The condition is attributed to below normal OND rains. Both quality and quantity of forage is below normal, attributed to under- performance of both long and short rains of 2022. The pastures are expected to last for two months in Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and less than one month in Agro-pastoral zone while for Pastoral areas, there are no pastures currently (Table 6). The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus and the most affected areas were Tiaty East, Tiaty West and parts of Baringo South sub counties. Cactus is a very important plant and can be utilized by farmers as forage if prepared properly. The sector is advised to enhance capacity strengthening to the communities on maintenance and utilization of Prosopis species and cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica). The invasive species may have adverse effects to pasture and browse as they are smothering the growth of pasture species that are palatable to livestock. Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions around Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Arabal and Kapedo and Kerio Valley areas. Table 6: Forage conditions d Zone Pasture Browse Condition Projected Duration to last (Months) Factors limiting access Condition Projected Duration to last (month) Factors limiting access Mixed farming No limit to fair No limit Irrigated cropping No limit to fair No limit Fair to No limit No limit tensions Fair to tensions Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture growth (Table 7). The stocks that were carried over from the previous seasons were also depleted and currently the county depends on supplies from the neighboring counties such as Nakuru. The existing stocks are being held by the farmers and their current prices are above the normal prices due to the high demand for feed supplementation, a factor that is limiting their utilization as many farmers cant afford them. Currently there are no significant crop residues for feeding livestock as many farmers did not bother to attempt to plant due to unfavorable season. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feeds county No. of Hay Stores Storage Capacity (Total number of bales) No. of Bales currently being held Average Weight per bale (in Kgs) Average price per bale (Kshs.) Comments E.g. percentage held by farmers and other Institutions Baringo South 7,500 12-15 100 held by farmers Baringo Central 20,000 12-15 100 held by farmers ERavine 605,000 100,000 100 held by farmers Tiaty Free grazing area Baringo North 280,000 3,400 12-15 100 held by farmers Mogotio 127,000 10,000 12-15 200-350 100 held by farmers Livestock body condition The deterioration in livestock body condition was brought about by worsening of quality of forage and increase of trekking distances to watering points following poor performance of both the long and short rain seasons of 2022. Furthermore, the county was unable to realize any crop residues that would have complemented livestock feeding. The deterioration in livestock body condition is expected to continue for the next three months as forage resources get depleted. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Compared to the last assessment, TLUs of poor income households declined from 4.0 to 3.6 while medium income households had stable TLUs. However, the TLUs for both categories were above LTA. The decline in TLUs was attributed by the low livestock birth rates due to underperformance of rains. Milk production and consumption Livelihood Cattle Sheep Camel Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming BCS 4- Irrigated cropping BCS 2 BCS3- (NB: BCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good) Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Average Table 8: Milk production, consumption and price Milk production and consumption declined across the livelihood zones compared to the last assessment and was below LTA (Table 8). The decrease was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition caused by poor forage quality and quantity as well as increasing distances to watering points. The prevailing high temperatures also affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. Milk prices remained above LTA with the highest prices being observed in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh 90 per litre. The high prices were as a result of the low supply of milk occasioned by poor milk production. Livestock migration The migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of water sources and insecurity tensions. Livestock animals are being driven from Laikipia nature conservancy towards Lake Baringo and Arabal. Other animals were moving from Tiaty areas towards Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. As a result of these migrations, insecurity tensions were reported in Loruk, Kalabata and Kinyach sub-locations. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or depleted while other migrations were triggered by insecurity. Local conflict resolution mechanisms are being deployed by the relevant authorities in order to prevent escalations. Migratory routes included Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo, Lake Baringo, Solai- Laikipia-Kiptoim-Esageri-Koibatek forest, Mukutani-Rugus and along Lake Baringo shores, Sandai-Chebinyiny-Upper Mochongoi, Loboi-Emsos; Sandai-Kapkuikui, Loboi to Wildlife conservancies, Churo-Laikipia ranches; Churo-Tangulbei-Lake Baringo area, KolloaTirioko- West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin, Silale-Malaso-Turkana border, Kasarani and Tangulbei-Laikipia MochongoiBeyong Malaso(MoruakirinMarti) Projected migration: Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next one month. Internal migrations are also expected to increase in intensity: Areas to watch- Saimo Soi, Lake Baringo areas, Arabal. Livestock diseases and mortalities Livelihood Milk Production (Litres)Household Milk consumption (Litres) per Household Prices (Ksh)Litre Current Current Current Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping pastoral 0.5-1 There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-county though there were normal incidents as shown in Table 9. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. Table 9: Livestock diseases county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken (Vaccinations) Baringo Central Endemic Goats vaccinations Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Lowlands Cattle Tiaty All wards Goats reported Planned vaccinations by communities PPR, LSD Ribkwo, Churo No report Not vaccinated Eldama Ravine Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination reported Baringo South Goat and sheep Losampurpur Goats and sheep 3 deaths No vaccination done Nyimbei Goats No vaccination done Heart water Bekibon Goats No vaccination done Marigat, Kimoriot cattle No deaths No vaccination done Mange Kapkuikui Goats No deaths No vaccination done Kapkuikui No deaths No vaccination done Baringo North County-wise (Endemic) Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated Barwessa, Shoats Plans initiated for vaccinations Rabies All wards No deaths 100 vaccinated Kabartonjo, Kipsaraman Cattle No deaths 150 vaccinated Helminths Saimo soi Cattle, sheep, goats No deaths 8,200 livestock dewormed Mogotio Mogotio Cattle reported No vaccinations Water for livestock Table 10: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average distances (Km) Expected duration to Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Irrigated cropping Rivers, shallow wells and springs, bore holes Rivers, shallow wells and springs. 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, traditional river wells Streams, water pans, Boreholes 3 weeks 3 months Bore-holes, water pans, traditional river wells Water-pans, Bore- holes, rivers 2 weeks 3 months The average return distances for livestock from watering points to grazing fields increased significantly across all livelihoods and was above the LTA. The Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest trekking distance of 7-15 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distances. The increase in distances was caused by drying up of water pans, and high temperatures that are causing rapid evaporation. Variations in water sources and trekking distance were due to low recharge levels and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels were at 0-30, which was not normal. Watering frequency Table 11: Watering frequency Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Irrigated cropping Agro-pastoral Watering frequency declined in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones due to the continued water shortages being experienced in the area following poor performance of the short rains season (Table 11). 3.1.4 Impact on availability The short rains season is normally relied on for complementing food availability in the county through recharge of rivers for irrigation water, water for livestock and humans, enhancing pasture and browse growth as well as supporting limited rain fed crops. The season under review performed dismally, affecting both livestock and crop productivity hence leading to further decline in availability of food stocks and milk. Households are there experiencing shortages in food availability, forcing them to shift to purchasing of food from the local markets at very high prices. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, Kinyach, and Kalabata Markets were disrupted by insecurity but not closed. The markets are operational but the prices remained low for the livestock and high for food items. The markets were less vibrant compared to December 2022 whereby there were less animals and market players which was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition and low demand for livestock. Most of the cereals and vegetables on sale in Mixed and Marginal zones were being sourced from within (Ravine, Baringo Central) with some coming from outside the county. In Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones between 85-95 percent are dependent on markets. 3.2.2 Market prices Maize prices Figure 3. Maize Prices The average price of a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh. 90, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a kilogram was retailing at Ksh 87kg (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 94 percent. The high maize prices were attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations coupled by increased cost of transportation driven by Price (Ksh. kg) high fuel prices has also affected the market prices across livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. Goat prices There was a drop of seven percent in the average price of a goat which was at Ksh 2,446 per head, in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 2,635 (Figure 4). The lowest price was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,200 while Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,490 and Ksh 3,000 respectively. The decrease in market prices was influenced by the worsening drought conditions in the county that is affecting the livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 27, implying that a sale of one goat was fetching 27kg of maize which was a decrease of 21 percent in relation to the previous month of December (Figure 5) and this could be attributed to improved livestock prices during the month under review. However, the current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 55 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 36 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24. The continued deterioration of livestock body condition is likely to impact negatively on livestock prices, a factor that will further worsen terms of trade and therefore eroding the purchasing power Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2.4 Income sources Table 12: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming Livestock Production Food Crop Production Cash crop production Small Business Casual Waged Labour Formal Waged Labour Poultry Production Fishing The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 12. However, income earned from sale of livestock declined this season due to depressed livestock market prices following the deterioration of livestock body condition. In the Irrigated cropping zone, sales from tomato crops declined following a market glut. 3.2.5 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Traditional River wells, Boreholes, lakes and water pans, (Figure 8). Generally, in the Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zone. By January, the recharge level of most water pans was 0-30 percent of their normal capacity in the pastoral livelihood zones compared to 70-80 percent normally. However, some area such as Tirioko ward, some pans never recharged due to poor distribution of the rains. The available water is likely to last less than a month as compared to 2-3 months normally. In the Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones the recharge was average at 60-80 percent of normal as compared to 100 percent typically and the water is expected to last 1-2 months. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones 80 of the water pans have dried up e.g Chepkalacha, kokwototo, chemoril among others, the remaining have 20-30 percent of the normal capacity such as Tangulbei, Loyeya, Tlingwo, Pombo, Orus etc. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers, traditional river wells in all livelihood zones are below the normal seasonal levels and expected to continue reducing due to high temperatures, high level of utilization and siltation. The level of water in the main rivers are as follows; River Perkerra 20 -340 percent, River kerio 20-30 percent and River Molo River 15 20 percent. Currently, 70 percent of the boreholes are operational in across all livelihood zones (Table 13); however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns example belatiat radat bebogoi bh,KirimBH, Sambaka,Tinomoi,TebeiKatikamuma,Kamakonge,Kapindasum,Bartalo,nasrot,seretion,chesawac h, kresee,ngoron, Loiwat, Akwichatis, Toplen, Sibilo across the county . Table 13:Status of water sources Ward d zone Water Source (Three major sources No. of Opera tional No. of Current Operatio Sources Projected Duration (Operationa l Sources) Normal Duration water last in months of full Capacity Recharged by the Rains Locality of Non- operational Water Sources Holes Over 6 Months months stable belatiat bh, radat ws bebogoi , bh, Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, Katikamuma,Kamakon Kapindasum, Bartalo,nasrot,seretion, chesawach,kreze,ngoro n,loiwat,akwichatis,topl en,sibilo Water 2weeks-1 month Months 10-15 Rivers 2weeks-1 month Months 10-20 pastoral Holes Over 6 Months months stable Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, , Water 1-2 Months Months 15-20 Rivers 1-2 Months 2Months 10 - 20 Mixed Farming Holes Over 6 Months months stable Springs Over 6 Months Months stable Rivers 1-2Months Months 30 - 40 Irrigated Cropping Rivers 1 -2 Months months 20 -30 weseges, river,Endao river and parts of molo river Shallo w Wells Over 6 months months Reducing Discharge borehol Over 6 months Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to domestic water sources are above the normal at 4-7 km in Pastoral and 3-7 km in Agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 2 4 kms. The distances were at 1-4 Km in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones against the normal distances 0.5 -2Km this was due to drying up of most of the open water sources as result of poor rainfall performance. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa the households are covering the highest distances of 7-10Km. this is due to non-functioning of the available boreholes. Waiting at the Time Source The current waiting time at the water source in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones was 20 120 minutes and 20-60 minutes as compared to the normal of 10-20 and 10-15minutes respectively. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 10-30 minutes which is above the normal of 5-10 minutes. The situation is attributed to congestion, low discharge from boreholes and low water volumes at surface sources. The situation is anticipated to worsen due to the ongoing drought spell. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally high across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free (Table 14). Water price at source in all livelihood zones was Ksh.5-10 against the usual Ksh 3-5. However, the price of water by vendors depends on the distances covered; on average it is at Ksh 20-100 per 20 litres jerrican. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa 60-70 percent are relying on water vendors. The cost per 20 litre jerrican is between Ksh. 50-100 from the normal of Ksh. 20 due to long distances to water sources and increased fuel prices. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zone ,10-15 and 5-10 litres per person per day in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral zone respectively compared to normal of 20-25 and 15-20 litres per person per day. This was attributed to scarcity water across all livelihood zones. Table 14: Water distance, cost and consumption Ward livelihood zone Return Distance to Water for Domestic Use Cost of Water at Source (Ksh. Per 20litres) Waiting Time at Water Source (Minutes) Average Water Consumption (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current 3 - 4 4 7 3 - 5 10-20 20-60 15-20 2 4 3 - 5 10-15 20-45 15-20 10-15 Mixed Farming 0.5 2 3 5 10-30 20 - 25 15-20 Irrigated Cropping 0.5 - 2 3 - 5 3 - 5 10-30 20 - 25 15 - 20 There was unusual high concentration at the following water points in the county; Kanguria ,kwichatis Wells,NaudoBH ,Chemeri BH,Tangulbei BH, Muiya, Noiywet BH,Nguberet BH,Kiptoim BH,Koitebes WS,Lelen BH,Kamar BH and Magoi, Kisanana BH,Olkokwe,Kamasai and Oldebes BH, Silonga BH, Chemorongion BH and Sirata BH, Ngoswonin and telan 3.2.6 Food consumption Figure 4: Food consumption score The proportion of sampled households that did not have acceptable food consumption score (FCS) has been rising steadily during the period under review for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6). In October, the proportion of households without acceptable FCS in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones was 50 and 30 percent respectively which rose to 69 and 20 percent respectively by January. About 19 percent of the households in the Pastoral zone have poor FCS by January and are likely to rise up due to the prevailing food consumption gaps. 3.2.7 Coping Strategy Coping strategy index Food Consumption Score Acceptable Borderline Households were adopting food consumption based coping strategies mostly in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones which included skipping of meals, reduced meal sizes among others. In the Pastoral zone, the CSI has marginally increased from 16 in October to 17 by January, an indication that households are applying more coping strategies in response to the deteriorating food security situation at the household level. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone has been employing the highest coping strategies over the season under review. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity in under five children Figure 5: Under 5 morbidity Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in Baringo county (Figure 8). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2021 was higher compared to the other years same period. This year 2022 recorded a slightly lower morbidity compared to 2021 among under five population. Irrigated Agro pastoral Under five Morbidity 2018 - 2022 Morbidity for General Population Figure 6: Morbidity in general population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload in but the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases of upper respiratory infection could be attributed to low immunity due to deteriorating nutrition situation 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Immunization Figure 7: Immunization coverage Routine data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2022 was above the national target of 80 percent (Figure 10). As compared to Oct- December 2021 same period, all antigens were above except OPV 3 which was below coverage in the same period 2021 and 2022, this was attributed to support of more outreaches in 2022. Opv 1 OPV 3 Measles Rubella 1 Imunization Coverge General population morbidity 2018-2 022 Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation for children aged 6-59 months for July Dec 2022 was at 80.7 percent, which was almost at per with the national of 80 percent (Figure 11). When compared to the same period in 2021 against the national target (73.3), the coverage was lower than the nation target 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity Figure 9: OTP OTP PROGRAM OUT-PATIENT FEEDING OTP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY YEARS Vitamin A supplentation 2021 -2022 12 to 59 6 to 59 Figure 8: Vitamin A coverage Figure 10: SFP Figure 12 and 13 shows that children attending OTP and SFP seems to increase in the year 2022, as compared to the same period 2021. This increase could be attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at the household level. Also it can be noted that both SFP and OTP have steadily increased in the months October and November due to increase in the number of outreaches. Figure 11: Underweight SFP PROGRAMS SUPPLEMENTARY FEEDING (SFP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY Years UNDERWIGHT TRENS 2028-2022 LTA (5-yr average) The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight are above the long term average (Figure 14), this could be attributed to the decline in nutrition status due to the decrease availability of milk at household level and increase of food prices such as milk and other commonly bought foodstuff. This has led to household reducing the number of meals per day as a form of coping strategy. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Sanitation and hygiene percent of the household wash hands critical time and out of these, percent wash hands water while 51.6 percent wash hands with water only. Figure 15 shows an improvement in hand washing practices in 2022 compared with 2021; this could be attributed to intervention put in place during COVID 19 intervention period. Latrine coverage Table 15: Latrine coverage Sub County Livelihood zone Latrine coverage July Dec 2022 Coverage July to December 2021 Coverage Open defecation (bushes) Koibatek Baringo Central Marigat Mogotio 50 Baringo North Tiaty West 38.8 48.8 22.6 51.6 Hand Washing Hand washing with soap Hand washing with water Figure 12: Hand washing practices Tiaty East 91.43 Tiaty sub counties has the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County (Table 15) and this was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high cases of water related diseases Nutrition status by MUAC The proportion of children (6-59 months) who were at risk of malnutrition according to the Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) was above the long-term average; this follow the same trend as for the underweight (Figure 15) and this could also be attributed to the deteriorating food security situation that include poor availability of milk and decreased number of meals per day as noted during the transect drive 3.4 Food security trends Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec at risk (MUAC135mm) Indicator Short rains assessment, January, 2023 Long rains assessment, July, 2022 of maize stocks held by households Livestock condition (Cattle) pastoral Agro-pastoral Fair-Good Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Farming Good-Fair Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption (litres per person per day pastoral 10-15 Agro-pastoral 10-15 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Irrigated cropping 15-20 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access Enrolment Table 16: Enrolment Term II 2022 Term III 2022 Enrollment Girls Total Girls Total 25,161 25,801 50,962 25,084 25,267 50,351 Primary 75,104 69,963 145,067 74,954 69,710 144,664 Secondary 25,798 25,513 51,311 25,773 25,481 51,254 The slight drop in enrollment in third term for ECD and primary schools is attributed to some factors like; delay in school feeding program supported by the county government, ministry of education and pupils transferring to other schools (Table 16). For secondary schools the change was attributed basically to transfers to other schools Cases of Drop outnon-attendance. Mixed Farming 15-20 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Price of maize (per kg) Price of goat 2,446 2,506 Distance to grazing pastoral Agro-pastoral Irrigated cropping Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Mixed Farming Pastoral-all species Pastoral-all species Terms of trade Coping strategy index County-17 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Pastoral-17.8 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable Acceptable Borderline Borderline Table 17: Dropout rate Dropoutsnon- attendants Term III, 2022) Reasons for Boys Dropoutsnon-attendance in Term III Reasons for Girls Dropoutsnon-attendance in Term III Girls Total - nomadism - distant schools - lack of food, - insecurity - child labour Primary - psychological trauma - child labour - insecurity violence - Nomadism, - chronic illness - teenage pregnancy teenage Secondary - Lack of school fees - Indulgence into Boda boda business -Insecurity - Child labour - Truancy - Lack of fees - Insecurity -teenage pregnancies - early marriages - insecurity violence Several cases of school dropout were reported during the period under review and most of the students could not be traced. Several reasons behind the dropout are shown in Table 17. 3.5.2 School feeding program Table 18: School feeding program schools with school meals program Transfer CSSMP County Other types of school feeding (Please specify.) Total number ies of School Meals Programs in the county Total No. of schools withou t any school feeding progra Total number ies NOT on school meals program in the county Level Prima Secon Subtot Grand total (boys girls) 6,600 90,698 There were several types of school feeding programs but the main one was intergrated schools meals program targeting 517 schools in five sub counties, but Ravine and Baringo Central sub counties are not benefitting (Table 18). School Feeding Programs available for primary schools and Enduring the season (Term III, 2022) Table 19: School feeding program in term 3 Type of SFP Available availableInadequate Number Schools affected Number Learners affected Effect availabilitynon- availability of food on learning continuity during the term. Girls Total County ECD SMP Not available 25,267 50,351 school meals program for ECD Transfer schools available 3,200 3,400 6,600 Delay in disbursement and increase in prices In-kind School Meals Programme Yes, but delayed 97,717 Transportation of food items SCDE stores to each School -delayed disbursement -In adequate supply CommunityParents Supported SMP Not available Expanded School Meals Programme Not available PartnersWell-wisher supported SMP 2,750 2,904 5,654 reliable continuity in supply Table 19 highlights the type of feeding program available in schools during term three and the type and number of schools benefitting from it. School feeding programs were to some extent hampered by logistical challenges such as transport. Water availability in schools during the season Main sources of water in schools where; borehole, river, water pumps, bowsers, taps, water pans and harvested rain water. Table 20 shows the number of schools with access to safe and clean water and schools with functional rain water harvesting infrastructure Table 20: School water availability of schools that had access to safe water (functional source within 100m radius) of schools that had NO access to safe water (functional source within 100m radius) of schools that had functional rain water- harvesting infrastructure (gutters, tanks and taps) ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the short rains, no schools were closed temporarily, there were no reported infrastructure destroyed during the season and no schools are currently hosting IDPs Effect of the season on school health and Nutrition during the season. Table 21: Season effect on health and nutrition School category Health issues which affected children during the season Did the mentioned issues affect learning continuity How Girls Common colds, Multivitamins Common colds, Multivitamins reduced enrolment Primary Common colds Common colds Learners health improved. Multivitamins Multivitamins Secondary Common ailments Common ailments Improved health for learners Common colds were the most common during the season under review as shown in Table 21. Health and nutrition interventions Children are being dewormed and given multivitamin A at schools organized by Ministry of Health. There is also enriched school meals with vegetables and fruits. Sanitation and hygiene conditions in schools Table 22:WASH facilities in schools of schools with inadequate functional latrine (i.e. Pupil toilet Ratio- PtOR of above 1:60) of schools with inadequate or no hand- washing facilities Primary Secondary Primary Secondary A number of schools did not have adequate WASH facilities as shown in Table 22 and their net effect was as follows, spread of mild illness, students could easily contact diseases, absenteeism, learners take a lot of time queuing in washrooms and ow self-esteem. Girls received sanitary kits during the season provided by the National government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits in some other parts of the country. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particular in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions The long rains season of March to May 2023 will be near normal as per the historical trend and the PSP process Market prices will continue to be abnormal whereby cereal prices will be extremely above LTA while livestock prices will continue to depreciate. Forage conditions will continue to deteriorate further due to moisture stress especially in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones Unusual livestock migrations are expected to pick up in the next two months Livestock body condition for cattle will worsen in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral areas, and some mortalities are likely to be reported in the next two months Water access and availability will worsen, with most pans in the Pastoral areas drying up. Household stocks will remain below normal for the next six months due to crop failures witnessed in the county Resource based conflicts are likely to be observed within the known hot spots Market operations are likely to be disrupted by insecurity incidents 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six month February-March-April Most households will continue to rely on markets for food stocks as they exhaust the existing stocks following consecutive crop failures. No significant harvest particularly for maize is expected hence most households will resort to other alternative sources of food through purchases, relief food, gifts among others. The conditions of range land resources including pastures and browse will worsen significantly due to moisture stress, resulting in reduced livestock feed. This will lead to further deterioration of livestock body condition particularly in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral areas. Consequently, livestock productivity will drop including milk production and live carcass weight. Household herd size are expected to decline slightly as limited livestock mortality will be observed in some pockets of the county (Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones). Market operations are expected to remain near normal though a few will be interrupted but insecurity challenges resulting from resource-based conflict. Food prices particularly for cereals will remain above normal while livestock prices will remain below long term average, and this will lead to worsening of terms of trade hence eroding the purchasing power of Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral households. Water access and availability will continue to worsen as most of the surface- based water sources in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones will dry up, leading to an increase in trekking distances and waiting time at water source. Water consumption at the household level will continue to decline across all livelihood zones while cost of water will go up for vendors as they will have to cover more distances in fetching water. Water quality will continue to deteriorate due to congestion of both humans and livestock at the water sources, a factor that may contribute to increase of water borne diseases. Food consumption gaps will continue to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, leading to more households drifting to borderline and poor food consumption score bands. Households will be adopting crisis coping strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, borrowing among others. Malnutrition cases will spike up in the next two months due to the reduced quantity and quality of food being consumed at the household level. May-June-July The long rains of MAM are expected to bring some relief in terms of water access and availability and forage conditions. Trekking distances to watering points for both human and livestock consumption are expected to decline, hence saving time for household members which will applied to other productive economic activities. The rains will trigger pasture regeneration hence improve forage availability by July hence initiating recovery of livestock body condition. However, milk production will still be below normal as the body condition will not have fully recovered, hence milk consumption gaps will still be experienced at the household level. Household stocks will have improved marginally but still below LTA by July following an improvement in crop production as farmers will have taken advantage of the MAM rains to plant. Market operations will remain normal and stable. Cereal prices will be expected to be in a declining trend as some households will have started limited harvesting of the MAM crop. Livestock prices are expected to be on an improving trend due to the expected improvement of livestock body condition as well as holding back of animals by farmers for the purpose of fattening and restocking. Terms of trade are expected to start improving by July thus enhancing the purchasing power of the Pastoral households. Household water consumption is expected to be normal following an increase in water availability at water sources while water quality will be better as a result of reduced water contamination due to congestion at watering points. Cost of water will be normal. An improvement in food consumption is expected following improved milk availability and household stocks. Households will adopt less severe coping strategies as households are expected to have improved their food security situation. However, malnutrition status will not have changed much although positive change is expected later in the course of the year. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase three (Crisis) while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone is in phase two (Borderline). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings Even though the county had acceptable food consumption score at 49 percent, the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest proportions of households not having acceptable food consumption at 60 and 38 percent respectively by December 2022. The Pastoral zone had 44 and 16 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS. In terms of consumption based coping strategies, (rCSI). About 50 percent of the households were applying stressed coping strategies while the other 50 percent were none coping. On livelihood coping, about 5, 22, 26 and 47 percent of the sampled households in December had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 18 percent by December which was above LTA by 65 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County (Worst to best) Main food security threatContributing factors Tiaty (East and West) Poor rain Insecurity Poor pastures Malnutrition Invasive species Water shortage Livestock migration High cereal prices Baringo North Poor rain Insecurity Poor pastures Malnutrition Total crop failure Malnutrition Livestock in migration Mogotio Poor rains Crop failure Poor pastures Worsening livestock body condition Livestock in migration Water availability and access is poor High food prices Resource based conflict (water) Baringo South Poor rains Poor river recharge Conflict Poor pastures Baringo Central Poor rains Crop failure High food prices Eldama Ravine Poor rain distribution Crop failure High Food prices 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions During the season under review, the county received relief food amounting to 2,400 bags of rice (50kg), 4,320 bags of beans (50kg) and 1,200 cartons of corn oil which were distributed across the county. Some cash transfer programs are ongoing. World Food Program is targeting 2, 778 households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household is receiving Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision carried out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. The Kenya Red cross targeted 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household was receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provided cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organization is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 in three tranches. This is a one off program that is expected to last for about four months. 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions AGRICULTURE County Intervention Implementers Impacts in terms security Frame Baringo North, South, Mogotio and Tiaty restoration of livelihoods affected desert locusts Saimo Soi, Ilchamus, Kisanana and Kolowa 4,000 Emergency Desert Locust project Increase agricultur Nov- June, Post-Harvest Practices (Inputs supply and construction of stores in Baringo North and Eldama Ravine (Provided Hermetic bags) Cereal stores build Bartolimo, Kewangoi and Arama County Government Reduced harvest losses especially on cereal million 2021-2023 Encouraging communities to plant high iron beans and sweet potato rich in Vitamin A (Provided with beans and sweet potato vines) for bulking County Government Improve nutritional in the vulnerable communit ies in the county. 2021-2023 LIVESTOCK Baringo South Baringo North Mogotio, Baringo Central Vaccination against PPR 800 HH BCGFAO Boost livestock Health Dec 2022 Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty and Mogotio Provision of Galla bucks, Sahiwal bulls Dorper groups 500 HH BCGSHAFS Improve livestock Dec 2022 All sub- counties Capacity building 1000 HH BCG(MOALF Partners Infirmed staff and Throughout Farmers and staff. farmers practices Mogotio Construction livestock feed store Mogotio 200 HH BCGDRLSP Improved pasture conservati Dec 2022 WATER Tiaty Tirioko borehole Equipping works Tirioko 120HH 2,682,227 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Sugut water supply project Piping and supply of water from sugut borehole to sugut centre Tirioko (sugut) 100HH Ongoing Tirioko Kongor borehole drilling and equipping of borehole Tirioko (kongor) Ongoing Tirioko Kasongogh borehole ngoron drilling and equipping of kasongogh borehole Tirioko (Ngoron) 140HH 2,500,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Tuwot borehole Equipping Loyamorok (Tuwot) 110HH Ongoing Tiaty Chesirimion centre Borehole works Loyamorok (chesirimio 100HH Ongoing Tiaty Adomeyon borehole solar installation, Construction of metallic water tank, cattle trough Loyamorok (Adomeyon 150HH Ongoing and water kiosk Tiaty Katele pan Construction of pan dam Silale Ongoing Tiaty boreholes, Silale 130HH Ongoing Tiaty Nasorot water Pump installation and solar panel Silale (Nasorot) 1,000,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Pkaghit water equipping, solar installation, water pump and pipeline extension Kollowa (Pkaghit) 115HH 1,800,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Kaisakat borehole drilling and equipping Kollowa (Kaisakat) 100HH 3,500,000 2022- Ongoing Tiaty Chepkalacha borehole drilling and equipping (kiosk, solar and tank) Tangulbei (Chepkalac 160HH Ongoing Mogotio Equipping of Ngoswe BH Mogotio 130 HH 1 year On Going Mogotio Completion Kaindaram Water Project Kisanana (Emsos) 490 HH 6 Months Ongoing Mogotio Equiping Kapchelugun Emining (Kimose) 210 HH 6 Months On going HEALTH countywi Vitamin A All health facilities, selected 82,268 supported by UNICEF, Helen Keller and child fund 2,000,000 Two time year(Malez i Bora Days) All health facilities 75,000 County department of health 800,000 Routine Selected health facilities all over county Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) 100 health facilities Surge at 6 health facilities in East Pokot 107,492 County department of health supported by National government, UNICEF, WFP, KRC 240,000,0 6 routines Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro complementa ry Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato All health facilities community units 107,492 County department of health supported by Iron Folate ion among Pregnant Women All health facilities County department of health supported by UNICEF Routine Deworming All health facilities 33,683 Routine EDUCATION Baringo central Parents provide d water, wood, handler s and purchas utensils School meal programme in some schools Kapkelelwa -salawa - Tenges 21,791- pupils Parents Promote retention of learners in schools Termly Marigat PROVISION OF FOOD 26,895 pupils GOKMOE Increase 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Baringo north Provision of commodities 26,996 pupils Increase enrolment Continuous Mogotio Parents provided water, fuel wood, paid food handlers purchased utensils 23,030 pupils Promote retention of learners in schools Termly Tiaty School feeding program 12,388 pupils Improve termly Tiaty School feeding program 8,167 pupils County 2022 SRA Food security (Worst to best) Population Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () per sub county Wards Estimated proportion in need of immediate food assistance () Per Ward Tiaty 153,347 (55) 84,340 Tirioko 65-75 Kolowa 40-50 Ribkwo 55-65 Silale 50-60 TangulbeiKorossi 30-40 Loiyamorok 55-65 ChuroAmaya 20-30 Baringo North 104,871 (45) 47,172 Barwessa 60-70 SaimoKipsaraman 40-50 SaimoSoi 80-90 Kabartonjo Bartabwa 50-60 Mogotio 91,104 (35) 31,887 Mogotio 15-25 Emining 45-55 Kisanana 45-55 Baringo South 90,104 (32) 28,597 (lower Mochongoi,Marigat, Mukutani, Ilchamus Mukutani 40-50 Marigat 50-60 Ilchamus 40-50 Mochongoi 30-40 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions AGRICULTURE Sub County Intervention beneficiarie Proposed Implementers Requi Resou Available Resource Frame Increased access drought resilient planting materials 8,000 projects in the department of Agriculture, WFP, SHA (Kshs Staff Increase adoption of climate smart technologies especially lowland areas National Government, County Government development partners (Kshs Staff Supply inputs especially drought escaping planting materials fertilizers Schools and other institutions Learning Learning income generation food and Nutrition security School s with farms Ministry Education, Ministry Agriculture and Irrigation, County Government development partners Staff, ty of well fenced farms, 2021- Baringo Central 96,951 (16) 15,110 (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Kabarnet (salawa) 30-40 Sacho Tenges 30-40 Kapropita 30-40 Ewalel Chapchap 50-60 Eldama Ravine 129,535 (5) 6,477 (Urban poor) (5) 6,477 (Perkerra, Koibatek wards and urban poor) Lembus 10-20 Ravine 45-55 Lembus Kwen 20-30 Koibatek 40-50 Lembus Perkerra 40-50 Mumberesmaji mazuri 10-20 Total population in need of food assistance 220,000 Tiaty Dam construction production livestock watering Kolow (Barpel lo- area Apuket Chepk aral, Kapeta upper County Government and partners 2022- Reduce post- harvest losses implementation Households County Government of Baringo and development partners Trained staff LIVESTOCK Baringo North, Mogotio -Vaccinations against LSD, CCPP and PPR Deworming -Disease surveillance wards 50,000 Cattle, 200,000 goats 30,000 Sheep BCG, FAO and other Development partners Jun 2023 Pasroral and Provision of Livestock feeds wards 2,000HH BCG, FAO, Partners Jun 2023 Pasroral and Livestock off-take wards 5,000TLU BCGFAOPar tners Jun 2023 counties Provisiojn pasture seeds wards 5000HH BCGPartners Jun 2023 counties Employment addition extension staff to replace retirees wards 6,000HHs Continuou -Baringo North -Baringo South Establishment of strategic livestock feed reserves; 12 wards 4,500HH MOALF NDMA(EU) Partners Jun 2023 -Mogotio across counties Loruk, RenovationConst ruction livestock Auction yards wards 13,000HH BCG, Partners Jun 2023 WATER saimo-soi Desilting of 10 No.water pans Barket 1200HH BCG, partners 1-4 months Barwessa Pipeline extension Expan sion of yieldin kapluk teland Ayaty a BHs 1500HH BCG partners 1-6months Bartabwa Equipping of boreholes drilled les 1200HH partners 1-6 months Kabartonjo Pipeline extension Kabart 2800HH BCG partners months Saimo- kipsaraman Pipeline extension Kapter e,kapc hepkor ,mond oi and kasisit 3200HH BCG partners months mberes Maji mazuri Maji BH water project mazuri Community million million Drilled and capped Lembus Torongo BH water project Toron 100 HH Community million million Drilled and capped Lembus Kapsigot water project Tinet 50 HH Community million million October. Ravine Kokorwonin water project Ravin 40 HH Community million million 31stApril. Koibatek Lebolos water project Sabati 30 HH Community million million October. Lembus Perkerra Kibias Tolmo water project Saos Kibias 20 HH Community million million October. MogotioI Servicing of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Emining Servicing and replacement of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Kisanana Servicing and replacement of pumping units Water management training unity BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1- 3months Mogotio Drilling and Equipping of 5 strategic BHs along migratory routes and settlement areas Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 1 - 2 yrs Mogotio Construction and Rehabilitation of 4 potential water supplies Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, 100 M 1 2 yrs Mogotio Rehabilitation 4 water pans, Construction of 14 major water pans and 80 farm ponds Across BCG, NG, RCS, WV, UNCEF, NDMA,WFP 1 - 3Yrs Saimo soi Drilling of boreholes and 3000HH BCG partners 1-12months expansion of high yielding boreholes and construction of small dams Bartabwa Spring protection ,tank construction pipeline distribution ,and construction of small dams 2900HH BCG partners 1-12months Barwessa Drilling of boreholes ,Construction of tanks and expansion of the high yielding boreholes 2500HH BCG partners 1-12months HEALTH Countywide Vitamin A Supplementation ywide 90,449 (Children 6 months) MOH, Helen Keller International Jan June Countywide Supplementation ywide 20,000 July-Dec Countywide Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) ywide No. of children 6 59 months estimated to malnourish Jan - June Countywide Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) ywide Health Care workers MOH, KRC 2.5 M March 2023 Countywide Interventions (EBF and Timely Intro of ywide 41,533 4.1 M Jan June complementary Foods) Children birth 2 years Countywide Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women ywide pregnant women 5.35M Jan -June Countywide Deworming ywide 83,066 children 1 5 years 1.66M Jan - June2023 Countywide Mass screening ywide Children from hotpot spot Areas County Govt and partners March 2023 Countywide Intensify Mass screening and referrals ywide facilities in the County County Govt and partners Countywide Provision of food supplements ywide Countywide County Govt and partners Countywide Integrated outreach services ywide 85 hot spots and hard to reach sites in 6 sub counties County Govt and partners Countywide SMART Survey ywide Countywide UNICEF, KRC, WVK Self Help Africa To be done the whole county in July Aug EDUCATION Baringo central Sourcing affordable meals to retain learners in schools 7,894 COUNTY GOVERNME NGOS CBO,S PARNTS 8.96M 6,000 sacks cookin utensil Human beans 12,000 100kg millet 10,000 bags ,90 maize 6000) Marigat Recommended for school feeding program MOE GOK County government Well wishers (1.48M) 121 ,bag rice,6 60bags beans 12,000 Human BARINGO NORTH GOKMOEN GOPRIVATE SECTORS Human KOIBATEK Provision Schools meals programme. World Programme 0.798M (61 bags of rice 6000 Beans 6112,0 Human od furl Mogotio County government Education partners Parents 1.254M (Beans 40 bags 360bsg Maize 93 bags) Human"
    }
}